tag:theconversation.com,2011:/nz/topics/paris-agreement-23382/articlesParis Agreement – The Conversation2024-01-09T13:42:17Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2193622024-01-09T13:42:17Z2024-01-09T13:42:17ZMeat and dairy industry’s attempt to change how we measure methane emissions would let polluters off the hook<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564347/original/file-20231207-27-cp062j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=137%2C168%2C1906%2C1119&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Methane has contributed [around 25%](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-023-02041-1) of the global temperature rise since industrialisation</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ksrecomm/26302605802">ksrecomm/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Lobbyists from major polluting industries were <a href="https://www.desmog.com/2023/12/08/big-meat-dairy-delegates-triple-cop28/">out in force</a> at the recent UN climate summit, COP28. Groups representing the livestock industry, which is responsible for around <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/report/global-methane-assessment-benefits-and-costs-mitigating-methane-emissions">32% of global methane emissions</a>, want to increase their use of a <a href="https://changingmarkets.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/CM-Online-report-layout-Seeing-the-stars-final-13-11-2023.pdf">new way of measuring these emissions</a> that lets high polluters evade their responsibility to make big emissions cuts.</p>
<p>Not all greenhouse gases are created equal. Carbon dioxide, the biggest driver of global warming, will build up in the atmosphere when continuously emitted, warming the Earth for centuries to come. Methane, the second-biggest driver, is more effective at trapping heat in the atmosphere, but most of it naturally breaks down a couple of decades after being emitted. The damage from a single burst of methane is intense but limited.</p>
<p>When emitted continuously, the additional heating caused by methane will remain constant after the initial rise. But ramping down methane emissions rapidly would have a swift and positive effect on global heating.</p>
<p>To understand the climate effects of different activities and develop pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, it is often useful to combine the effects of different gases into a single metric. GWP100 – a gas’s global warming potential over 100 years – has become the dominant metric and has been adopted as a standard <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/transparency-and-reporting/reporting-and-review/methods-for-climate-change-transparency/common-metrics">by the UN</a>.</p>
<p>However, GWP100 fails to capture the different ways methane and carbon dioxide behave in the atmosphere. It also masks the more intense short-term effect of methane compared to carbon dioxide. GWP100 simply measures the mass of each gas released into the atmosphere and considers 1kg of methane as equivalent to 28kg of carbon dioxide in terms of its climate impact.</p>
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<img alt="A gas flare at an oil refinery." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565530/original/file-20231213-23-d65y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565530/original/file-20231213-23-d65y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565530/original/file-20231213-23-d65y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565530/original/file-20231213-23-d65y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565530/original/file-20231213-23-d65y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565530/original/file-20231213-23-d65y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565530/original/file-20231213-23-d65y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Carbon dioxide and methane behave differently in the atmosphere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/gas-flare-oil-refinery-kimanissabahmalaysia-35-652862944">hkhtt hj/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>So in 2016, scientists at the University of Oxford proposed <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2998">a new method</a> for modelling methane and carbon dioxide together called GWP*. This model is more complex and takes account of both the level of emissions and the changes in emissions compared to a recent baseline year. </p>
<p>But, because it relies on changes since the baseline year, GWP* can allow a historically high emitter to look good by making minor cuts to their emissions.</p>
<p>When used at any level <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4928">other than globally</a>, the use of the baseline year bakes in the current unequal distribution of responsibility for methane emissions and simply projects this situation into the future. The usual baseline year is 20 years before today, and so would imply rich countries’ retaining their high share of global methane emissions, mainly due to their high meat and dairy consumption. </p>
<p>This precludes any debate about the equity of responsibility for current and ongoing emissions, and favours today’s high emitters, while not allowing developing countries with low emissions any space to grow in the future.</p>
<h2>Twisted tools</h2>
<p>The tempting narrative that some in the beef and dairy industry have <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad0f75">started to promote</a> is that GWP* (“the latest science”) tells us methane emissions are not as serious as we thought they were, and only small reductions are required. </p>
<p><a href="https://ahdb.org.uk/knowledge-library/applying-gwp-to-uk-national-ghg-emissions">Industry-backed statements</a> along the lines of the “UK’s livestock is not contributing to climate heating since numbers have not increased in recent years” may seem correct and convincing when looking at the GWP* results without delving into the nuances. The correct statement, however, is that the “UK’s livestock is not contributing additional warming compared to already high levels”. This is what incorrect use of GWP* masks.</p>
<p>This narrative is dangerous. It can be used to shift the burden of responsibility for tackling climate change further away from the agricultural sector. And it conceals the important role that methane reduction can play in keeping temperature rise to within 1.5°C, particularly by enabling near-term reductions of warming.</p>
<p>We need all emissions to reduce quickly and immediately. There are no trade-offs to be made.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-019-0086-4">The authors</a> of GWP* cautioned that using it to water down ambitious climate mitigation targets would lead to invalid results. If GWP* was used properly (as a global climate model), it would show that GWP100 has been partially masking the benefits of rapid and permanent reduction in methane emissions, not least due to a reduction in ruminant livestock numbers. This is again due to GWP100 averaging methane’s effects over a century.</p>
<p>Because of the added complexity of GWP*, and future projections of the distribution of emissions of key greenhouse gases, it is not a <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5930">drop-in replacement</a> for existing greenhouse gas accounting metrics like GWP100. To do so is akin to setting a temperature target in celsius but then reporting progress in fahrenheit. </p>
<p>Research <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab56e7">has found</a> that such a replacement would imperil the Paris agreement’s goals. The meat and dairy lobby are (correctly) betting on policymakers not understanding these subtle yet vital differences. We must not allow these high emitters to shirk their responsibilities.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new way of measuring emissions may let the biggest polluters evade their responsibility to tackle climate change.Tom Higgs, Honorary Researcher, Lancaster Environment Centre; Consultant, Small World Consulting, Lancaster UniversityDmitry Yumashev, Senior Research Associate, Pentland Centre for Sustainability in Business, Lancaster UniversityMike Berners-Lee, Professor of Sustainability, Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2189892023-12-19T20:12:54Z2023-12-19T20:12:54ZCarbon pricing alone is not enough — other measures are needed to meet Paris Agreement targets<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/carbon-pricing-alone-is-not-enough-other-measures-are-needed-to-meet-paris-agreement-targets" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>As the world grapples with the dramatic effects of record temperatures in recent months, the United Nations has issued a dire warning about the potential for average global temperature increases to hit a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/20/world-facing-hellish-3c-of-climate-heating-un-warns-before-cop28">“hellish” 3 C by the end of the century</a>.</p>
<p>Carbon pricing policies have been a central part of the conversation about avoiding the worst effects of climate change. <a href="https://unfccc.int/about-us/regional-collaboration-centres/the-ciaca/about-carbon-pricing">Carbon pricing</a> is a market-based solution that incentivizes organizations and individuals to emit less greenhouse gases and invest in climate solutions.</p>
<p>Addressing an audience at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/%20nl/ip_23_6092">European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made the case</a> for carbon pricing: “If you pollute, you have to pay a price for that. If you want to avoid paying that price, you innovate and invest in clean technologies.” </p>
<p>However, it’s vital to understand both the potential and limitations of these policies. <a href="https://smith.queensu.ca/centres/isf/pdfs/carbon-pricing.pdf">Our recent research</a> shows that global carbon pricing policies must advance much more rapidly, and be combined with other mitigation measures, to avoid harmful warming scenarios. As von der Leyen said in her remarks, “we must go further and faster.”</p>
<h2>Carbon pricing needs to rise</h2>
<p>Carbon pricing can be a powerful tool to combat climate change and reduce emissions, but not on its own. Our research shows that carbon pricing in isolation will not allow us to meet the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement target 1.5 C or 2 C warming scenarios</a>.</p>
<p>If carbon pricing is implemented more aggressively and broadly, it could significantly contribute to meeting these targets. The current global average carbon price, which we estimate in our report at being a meagre US$2.79 per tonne of emissions, needs to increase rapidly. </p>
<p>Our study modelled the effects of a rising global price on carbon, in isolation from other policies, on reducing greenhouse gas emissions across a range of scenarios. </p>
<p>We found that while carbon pricing on its own could limit global warming to 2.4 C, the global price would have to rise dramatically and rapidly to accomplish this. The price would have to start at $223.31 per tonne in 2023 and increase to $435.55 per tonne by 2045.</p>
<p>While such an abrupt global policy change is unlikely, the price would not need to be so high if it was accompanied by other measures, including regulations that provide clarity and stability regarding green investments, clean technology subsidies and financing mechanisms (such as those facilitating transition investing by companies). </p>
<p>For example, if we look at the carbon price needed to stay within 3 C scenario, it’s around US$85 per tonne — not much higher than our <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carbon-pricing-tax-climate-change-1.6798272">current Canadian carbon price of $65 per tonne</a>. With the right other policies working in concert with that carbon price, and potentially funded by greenhouse gas emitters, we could still hit much lower than 3 C by the end of the century.</p>
<h2>The case for carbon pricing</h2>
<p>Our research also looked at the benefits of avoiding higher warming scenarios. The resulting savings from avoiding climate-related damage and economic loss from droughts, wildfires, floods, storms and rising sea levels would be enormous. </p>
<p>Our research estimates that cumulative damages under a 3 C warming scenario of US$480 trillion would be US$213 trillion higher than under a 2 C scenario, and US$326 trillion more than under a 1.5 C scenario. This confirms the importance of hitting the Paris Agreement targets. </p>
<p>Even if lower warming targets are missed, there is a strong case for carbon pricing. For example, keeping global warming to 3 C by 2100 in contrast to the zero-carbon price scenario of 4.2 degrees warming, could prevent cumulative damages of US$284.73 trillion — almost three times the <a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-105-trillion-world-economy-in-one-chart/">current global GDP of US$105 trillion</a>.</p>
<p>We are talking about worlds of damage here — and that is just the economic price tag, of course. It doesn’t account for the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01132-6">devastating human cost of climate disasters</a> that we’re already seeing in homes destroyed, livelihoods ruined and lives lost. The message is not to give up, but to intensify efforts and co-ordinate globally.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218989/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Carbon pricing can be a powerful tool to combat climate change and reduce emissions, but it needs to be accompanied by improved regulations, clean technology subsidies and financing mechanisms.Sean Cleary, BMO Professor of Finance, Queen's University, OntarioNeal Willcott, PhD Candidate - Finance, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2199122023-12-18T19:10:06Z2023-12-18T19:10:06ZFrom laggard to leader? Why Australia must phase out fossil fuel exports, starting now<p>For years <a href="https://priceofoil.org/2021/11/12/fossil-fuelled-five-report/">large fossil fuel producers</a> — <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-know-if-a-country-is-serious-about-net-zero-look-at-its-plans-for-extracting-fossil-fuels-170508">including Australia</a> — have <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/production-gap-report-2023">expanded</a> fossil fuel production while maintaining rhetorically that the world needs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But global emissions are overwhelmingly caused by the extraction, transport and burning of fossil fuels. Unless fossil fuels are phased out, emissions will grow and the climate crisis will worsen.</p>
<p>At COP28 climate negotiations in Dubai, which wrapped up last week, this fact finally became the centre of attention. And fossil fuel producers were <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/opec-chief-urges-members-reject-any-cop28-deal-that-targets-fossil-fuels-2023-12-08/">feeling the pressure</a> — forced to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/opec-members-push-against-including-fossil-fuels-phase-out-cop28-deal-2023-12-09/">defend their expansion of fossil fuels</a> or change their tune.</p>
<p>Interestingly, Australia seems to be doing the latter, at least rhetorically. While successive governments have <a href="https://www.australianforeignaffairs.com/articles/extract/2021/07/double-game">worked assiduously</a> to keep fossil fuel production out of the spotlight at the UN talks, Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-cop28-dubai-0">said</a> Australia supports the global phasing out of fossil fuels in energy systems by 2050. Clearly eager to avoid being seen as the villain at the talks, Bowen named Saudi Arabia as the main blocker to an agreement on phasing out fossil fuels.</p>
<p>But the text of COP decisions matters much less than the actions states and companies take. Australia — one of the <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/P667-High-Carbon-from-a-Land-Down-Under-WEB_0_0.pdf">world’s largest producers and exporters</a> of fossil fuel-based carbon dioxide — is fuelling the problem, not solving it. Currently, Australian companies are moving to expand fossil fuel production: <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-major-projects-2022">more than 100 major coal, oil and gas projects</a> are in planning, at a cost of around A$200 billion. Some of these are “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2022/may/11/fossil-fuel-carbon-bombs-climate-breakdown-oil-gas">carbon bombs</a>,” likely to add huge quantities of emissions.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Why Australia faces charges of hypocrisy</h2>
<p>The Albanese government has already <a href="https://michaelwest.com.au/ten-and-rising-albanese-government-new-fossil-fuel-approvals-unveiled/">approved</a> a number of new fossil fuel projects, <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/how-labor-out-loved-the-coalition-in-its-embrace-of-big-oil-and-gas/">embracing</a> the fossil fuel expansionism of its conservative predecessors. But now that Australia has declared support for a global phase-out of fossil fuels, it must curtail its own exports or face continued <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/19/missing-half-the-equation-scientists-criticise-australia-over-approach-to-fossil-fuels">charges of hypocrisy</a>.</p>
<p>How could Australia do that while managing the fallout? Interestingly, Bowen’s <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-cop28-dubai-0">rhetoric at COP</a> contained the seeds of an answer: a “phase out of fossil fuels is Australia’s economic opportunity as [a] renewable energy superpower”. In line with this sentiment, Australia should adopt the mission of leading the Asia-Pacific region to a prosperous future by simultaneously phasing out its fossil fuel exports while phasing up its clean energy exports; by becoming a <a href="https://www.bze.org.au/research/report/renewable-energy-superpower">clean energy superpower</a> instead of a dirty energy one.</p>
<p>Doing so would require a dramatic shift in Australia’s international climate posture: from a defensive, parochial, technocratic stance aimed at protecting fossil fuel expansion to proactive, outward-looking and pragmatic leadership; from merely focusing on its own territorial emissions to using all powers at its disposal in its <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/climate-policy-and-our-sphere-of-influence/">sphere of influence</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hard-fought-cop28-agreement-suggests-the-days-of-fossil-fuels-are-numbered-but-climate-catastrophe-is-not-yet-averted-219597">Hard-fought COP28 agreement suggests the days of fossil fuels are numbered – but climate catastrophe is not yet averted</a>
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<h2>First a new project ban, then a net zero plan</h2>
<p>Our coal and gas exports are entirely within our sovereign control, and give us enormous leverage over our regional trading partners. No one is suggesting stopping fossil fuel exports overnight. But we could start by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/21/the-latest-ipcc-report-makes-it-clear-no-new-fossil-fuel-projects-can-be-opened-that-includes-us-australia">banning new projects</a>, and then convening our regional partners to work out a plan to phase out existing production and consumption. Australian leadership would involve supporting our neighbours —through investment, trade and aid —to ensure their populations can access energy from zero-carbon sources, just as we’re aspiring to do at home.</p>
<p>Phasing out fossil fuel exports is thus best conceptualised as part of a shift in our foreign and trade policy aimed at securing our and our region’s prosperity against the existential threat of climate change — and amid a global pivot to clean energy. Call it “<a href="https://www.bze.org.au/research/report/laggard-to-leader#:%7E:text=Laggard%20to%20Leader%20is%20a,and%20accelerated%20through%20international%20cooperation.">cooperative decarbonisation</a>”. Viewed in this light, the typical objections to a fossil fuel phase-out in Australia look pathetic.</p>
<h2>The weak objections to a phase-out</h2>
<p>The first objection claims we are not responsible for the overseas emissions produced from burning our exported coal and gas. This falsely conflates Australia’s national interest in reducing emissions globally with its international legal responsibility for <a href="https://legalresponse.org/legaladvice/reporting-requirements-under-article-13-paris-agreement/">reporting emissions</a> locally.</p>
<p>Nothing in the Paris Agreement prevents a country from taking actions that would reduce or avoid emissions in another country. It is reckless and self-defeating to concern ourselves only with emissions produced on our territory when our power to influence global emissions is so much greater. Let’s hope that Bowen’s rhetorical shift at COP28 signals acceptance of this fact.</p>
<p>The second objection is that leaving our fossil fuels in the ground will not affect global emissions, because if we don’t sell our coal and gas, someone else will. Aside from its immorality (the “drug dealer’s defence”), the objection defies Economics 101: if you reduce supply of a product, its price goes up, causing demand to contract. Other countries might supply <em>some</em> of the shortfall, but Australia is such a big producer that it is implausible to think we could exit the coal and gas markets without dramatically reducing global emissions.</p>
<p>Moreover, it’s shortsighted to think of fossil fuel export policy in isolation from the wider foreign policy choices we face. Australia’s current foreign policy is to <a href="https://www.australianforeignaffairs.com/articles/extract/2021/07/double-game">promote our coal and gas exports</a>: we literally pay public servants to help multinational companies sell more coal and gas. But if we gave our diplomats the nobler mission of leading our region’s decarbonisation, our leadership would help to make trade in fossil fuels redundant.</p>
<p>The last oft-heard objection is that phasing out fossil fuel production would cost too much. The foreign-owned corporations that produce most of our coal and gas <a href="https://michaelwest.com.au/australia-wins-plaudits-for-move-on-multinational-tax-dodgers-but-much-more-is-needed-on-fossil-front/">pay little tax</a> and <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/employment-aspects-of-the-transition-from-fossil-fuels-in-australia/">employ relatively few people</a>, while capturing <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/P1378-Fossil-fuel-subsidies-2023-Web.pdf">billions of dollars in state and federal government subsidies</a>. Scaling up as a clean energy superpower could bring more economic growth, jobs and tax revenue than would be lost from fossil fuels — especially if we <a href="https://michaelwest.com.au/a-real-plan-to-tackle-energy-prices-climate-and-the-budget/">taxed the fossil fuel industry properly</a> on its way out.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hyped-and-expensive-hydrogen-has-a-place-in-australias-energy-transition-but-only-with-urgent-government-support-219004">Hyped and expensive, hydrogen has a place in Australia’s energy transition, but only with urgent government support</a>
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<h2>Phase-outs can be done: lessons from overseas</h2>
<p>Denmark, France, Ireland and Costa Rica are <a href="https://beyondoilandgasalliance.org/">among a number</a> of countries that have foregone new fossil fuel exploration and production opportunities; others are <a href="https://www.iisd.org/articles/just-transition-examples">working to phase out existing</a> operations. Doing so is undoubtedly challenging: firms, workers and the communities in which fossil fuel operations are located understandably tend to resist policies that would close their industry.</p>
<p>But government support can smooth the transition. The Spanish government, for instance, negotiated a “just transition agreement” with unions and businesses to phase out coal mining, support affected workers and invest in their communities. My coauthors and I <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/how-to-get-coal-country-to-vote-for-climate-policy-the-effect-of-a-just-transition-agreement-on-spanish-election-results/25FE7B96445E74387D598087649FDCC3">found</a> this strategy actually increased the government’s vote share at a subsequent election in the coal regions.</p>
<p>A phase-out of fossil fuel production is <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/employment-aspects-of-the-transition-from-fossil-fuels-in-australia/">entirely feasible</a> for a country with our resources, skills and diverse economy. The standard objections provide fossil fuel companies, and the politicians they’ve captured, with convenient excuses for cashing in while the planet — and Australia — burns. It’s time, instead, for bold actions that lead us and our region to a prosperous, fossil-free future.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-deal-confirms-what-australia-already-knows-coal-is-out-of-vogue-and-out-of-time-219906">COP28 deal confirms what Australia already knows: coal is out of vogue and out of time</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219912/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fergus Green is affiliated with the Powering Past Coal Alliance - is a coalition of national and subnational governments, businesses and organisations working to advance the transition from unabated coal power generation to clean energy. He is a member of the Alliance's Just Transition Expert Group.</span></em></p>Australia supported a phase-out of fossil fuels at the recent UN climate summit but is still expanding coal and gas production. It’s a contradiction that threatens the planet. There is a better way.Fergus Green, Lecturer in Political Theory and Public Policy, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2197532023-12-13T19:00:23Z2023-12-13T19:00:23ZThe COP28 climate agreement is a step backwards on fossil fuels<p>The COP28 climate summit in Dubai has adjourned. The result is “<a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/">The UAE consensus</a>” on fossil fuels. </p>
<p>This text, agreed upon by delegates from nearly 200 countries, calls for the world to move “away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner”. Stronger demands to “phase out” fossil fuels were ultimately unsuccessful.</p>
<p>The agreement also acknowledges the need to phase down “unabated” coal burning and transition towards energy systems consistent with net zero emissions by 2050, while accelerating action in “the critical decade” of the 2020s. </p>
<p>As engineers and scientists who research the necessary changes to pull off this energy system transition, we believe this agreement falls short in addressing the use of fossil fuels at the heart of the climate crisis. </p>
<p>Such an approach is inconsistent with the scientific consensus on the urgency of drastically reducing fossil fuel consumption to limit global warming to 1.5°C.</p>
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<img alt="A power plant emitting smoke and steam." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565543/original/file-20231213-17-62e61q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565543/original/file-20231213-17-62e61q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565543/original/file-20231213-17-62e61q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565543/original/file-20231213-17-62e61q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565543/original/file-20231213-17-62e61q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565543/original/file-20231213-17-62e61q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565543/original/file-20231213-17-62e61q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Fossil fuel use is at the heart of the climate crisis.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/power-plant-emitin-smoke-steam-1555865300">Peter Gudella/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>‘Abated’ v ‘unabated’</h2>
<p>The combustion of coal, oil and gas <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/causes-effects-climate-change#:%7E:text=Fossil%20fuels%20%E2%80%93%20coal%2C%20oil%20and,they%20trap%20the%20sun's%20heat.">accounts</a> for 75% of all global warming to date – and 90% of CO₂ emissions.</p>
<p>So what does the text actually ask countries to do with these fuels – and what loopholes might they exploit to continue using them well into the future?</p>
<p>Those countries advocating for the ongoing use of fossil fuels made every effort to add the term “unabated” whenever a fossil fuel phase-down or phase-out was proposed during negotiations. </p>
<p>“Abatement” in this context typically means using carbon capture and storage technology to stop CO₂ emissions from engines and furnaces reaching the atmosphere.</p>
<p>However, there is no clear definition of what abatement would entail in the text. This ambiguity allows for a broad and easily abused interpretation of what constitutes “abated” fossil fuel use.</p>
<p>Will capturing 30% or 60% of CO₂ emissions from burning a quantity of coal, oil or gas be sufficient? Or will fossil fuel use only be considered “abated” if 90% or more of these emissions are captured and stored permanently along with low leakage of “fugitive” emissions of the potent greenhouse gas methane, which can escape from oil and gas infrastructure?</p>
<p>This is important. Despite the agreement supposedly honouring “the science” on climate change, low capture rates with high residual and fugitive emissions are inconsistent with what research has shown is necessary to limit global warming to the internationally agreed guardrails of 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures. </p>
<p>In a 2022 <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/">report</a>, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicated that almost all coal emissions and 33%-66% of natural gas emissions must be captured to be compatible with the 2015 Paris agreement. </p>
<p>That’s assuming that the world will have substantial means of sucking carbon (at least several billion tonnes a year) from the air in future decades. If these miracle machines fail to materialise, our research indicates that carbon capture would need to be <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4574502">near total on all fuels</a>.</p>
<p>The fact that the distinction between “abated” and “unabated” fossil fuels has not been clarified is a missed opportunity to ensure the effectiveness of the Dubai agreement. This lack of clarity can prolong fossil fuel dependence under the guise of “abated” usage. </p>
<p>This would cause wider harm to the transition by allowing continued investment in fossil fuel infrastructure – new coal plants, for instance, as long as some of the carbon they emit is captured (abated) – thereby diverting resources from more sustainable power sources. This could hobble COP28’s other goal: to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.</p>
<p>By not explicitly defining these terms, COP28 missed the chance to set a firm, scientifically-backed benchmark for future fossil fuel use.</p>
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<img alt="A solar power farm against a clear blue sky." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565542/original/file-20231213-19-gml4jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565542/original/file-20231213-19-gml4jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565542/original/file-20231213-19-gml4jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565542/original/file-20231213-19-gml4jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565542/original/file-20231213-19-gml4jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565542/original/file-20231213-19-gml4jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565542/original/file-20231213-19-gml4jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Tripling renewable capacity by 2030 would require an annual growth rate of 17%.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/photovoltaics-solar-power-station-526996462">Soonthorn Wongsaita/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>The coming age of carbon dioxide removal</h2>
<p>Since the world is increasingly likely to overshoot the temperature goals of the Paris agreement, we must actively remove more CO₂ from the atmosphere – with reforestation and direct air capture (DAC), among other methods – than is emitted in future.</p>
<p>Some carbon removal technologies, such as DAC, are very early in their development and scaling them up to remove the necessary quantity of CO₂ will be difficult. And this effort should not detract from the urgent need to reduce emissions in the first place. This balanced approach is vital to not only halt but reverse the trajectory of warming, aligning with the ambitious goals of the Paris agreement.</p>
<p>There has only really been one unambiguously successful UN climate summit: Paris 2015, when negotiations for a top-down agreement were ended and the era of collectively and voluntarily raising emissions cuts began.</p>
<p>A common commitment to “phase down and then out” clearly defined unabated fossil fuels was not reached at COP28, but it came close with many parties strongly in favour of it. It would not be surprising if coalitions of like-minded governments proceed with climate clubs to implement it.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alaa Al Khourdajie is a lead author of UNEP's Global Environment Outlook, 7th Edition and a guest research scholar at the International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Austria.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lars J Nilsson is a passive member of the World Wild Fund for Nature (WWF) and the Swedish Association for the Conservation of Nature.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Bataille does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The distinction between ‘abated’ and ‘unabated’ fossil fuels is crucial, yet remains ambiguous.Alaa Al Khourdajie, Research Fellow, Department of Chemical Engineering, Imperial College LondonChris Bataille, Adjunct Research Fellow in Energy and Climate Policy, Columbia UniversityLars J Nilsson, Professor of Environmental and Energy Systems Studies, Lund UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2193992023-12-07T11:32:49Z2023-12-07T11:32:49ZHelping the Pacific financially is a great start – but Australia must act on the root cause of the climate crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564147/original/file-20231207-27-ums72m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=29%2C49%2C3216%2C2144&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fiji was flooded by a severe cyclone in 2016.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/indigenous-fijian-girl-walking-on-flooded-561184597">ChameleonsEye/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The federal government has announced an extra <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/joint-media-release-supporting-pacific-family-cop28-respond-climate-change">A$150 million for climate finance</a> – including $100 million for the Pacific to help protect its people, housing and infrastructure from the escalating impacts of global warming. </p>
<p>It comes as Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen lands in Dubai for international negotiations at the <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/">28th United Nations climate summit</a>. At the end of the hottest year on record, these talks focus on accelerating climate action in line with the Paris Agreement. </p>
<p>While new funding is undoubtedly important and can go a long way to supporting community-led resilience-building efforts in the region, Australia will be under growing pressure to do more.</p>
<p>A growing number of countries, including the European Union and Pacific island nations, want to see global agreement at COP28 for a managed phase-out of fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Many observers are sceptical that COP28 can deliver consensus on shifting away from coal, oil and gas, because host nation the United Arab Emirates is a major oil exporter. This is a problem Australia also faces – having volunteered to host UN climate talks in 2026, in partnership with Pacific island countries. Today, Australia exports almost <a href="https://productiongap.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/PGR2023_web_rev.pdf">three times as much fossil fuels</a> as the UAE. Dozens of new coal and gas projects are lining up for approval. </p>
<p>Today’s announcement must not be a substitute for addressing the root causes of the climate crisis. Australia must stop approving new coal, oil and gas projects. And we must back agreement at COP28 for the phase-out of fossil fuels.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/after-decades-putting-the-brakes-on-global-action-does-australia-deserve-to-host-un-climate-talks-with-pacific-nations-194055">After decades putting the brakes on global action, does Australia deserve to host UN climate talks with Pacific nations?</a>
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<h2>What’s in today’s announcement?</h2>
<p>Australia will kickstart the Pacific’s first resilience financing facility with $100 million, and rejoin the Green Climate Fund with a $50 million contribution. As the government says in today’s joint statement: </p>
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<p>Climate change is the single greatest threat to the livelihoods, security and wellbeing of climate vulnerable countries and regions, including the peoples of the Pacific.</p>
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<p>Sea-level rise, stronger cyclones, marine heatwaves and increasingly acidic oceans pose existential threats to many Pacific islands. Low-lying atoll nations such as Kiribati and Tuvalu are especially vulnerable. </p>
<p>Australia certainly has a responsibility to help Pacific communities adapt. Supporting the Pacific-led, owned and managed Pacific Resilience Facility is an important step. </p>
<p>The facility was proposed by island leaders as a regional fund that would help island communities build resilience to climate impacts, and would be driven by Pacific priorities. </p>
<p>It was established partly in response to concerns that other large multilateral funds are difficult for Pacific island countries to access, and are not geared to support community-scale projects. These locally driven solutions and community projects deserve our support. </p>
<p>The Australian government says it will support locally led, small-scale projects: </p>
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<p>This includes grants for climate adaptation, disaster preparedness, nature-based solutions and projects which respond to loss and damage.</p>
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<p>Note the words “loss and damage” – the sole mention of those words in today’s announcement. Bowen has so far been <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/interview-sabra-lane-abc-am-4">hesitant to make any commitment</a> to the new global Loss and Damage Fund, to be administered by the World Bank. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-chris-bowens-struggle-to-promote-consensus-on-climate-action-at-cop28-219008">Politics with Michelle Grattan: Chris Bowen's struggle to promote consensus on climate action at COP28</a>
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<h2>Rejoining the Green Climate Fund</h2>
<p>The world’s largest global climate fund, the Green Climate Fund, was set up in 2015 as part of the Paris Agreement. It has approved projects across 128 countries.</p>
<p>Australian diplomat Howard Bamsey was <a href="https://www.greenclimate.fund/news/gcf-board-selects-howard-bamsey-as-executive-director-of-the-secretari-1">previously Executive Director of the Green Climate Fund</a> and Australia was able to direct the multilateral fund to support initiatives in our region. </p>
<p>But the Morrison government withdrew Australia from the fund in 2018. We should never have left. It was a rash decision, <a href="https://archive.is/0GIN8">announced by the then Prime Minister Scott Morrison live on air</a> while talking to radio host Alan Jones.</p>
<p>Rejoining the Green Climate Fund makes good sense for Australian diplomacy and relations with countries in our region. By rejoining the fund, Australia can effectively advocate for funding to meet Pacific needs.</p>
<h2>Australia should contribute to the new Loss and Damage Fund</h2>
<p>Providing finance to help Pacific communities deal with growing climate impacts is a positive step, but Australia also needs to contribute to the newly established fund to address loss and damage that is now unavoidable.</p>
<p>The establishment of the global Loss and Damage Fund at the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-climate-summit-just-approved-a-loss-and-damage-fund-what%20-does-this-mean-218999">beginning of COP28 last week</a> was a major breakthrough, and a real win for Pacific island countries. </p>
<p>Vanuatu first proposed a global fund in the early 1990s. The idea was polluters would pay for the damage they were causing. </p>
<p>This is different to climate finance for adaptation. It is meant to deal with things you really can’t adapt to, such as loss of lives after a major cyclone, or damage to crucial infrastructure after coastal inundation. </p>
<p>Finalising such a fund means wealthy nations and major emitters must now allocate funds to address these forms of loss and damage in the Pacific. </p>
<p>With other nations – including the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, the UAE and Germany – already making announcements to contribute to this new Loss and Damage Fund, Australia must also do its part. </p>
<p>Australia should be supporting our Pacific neighbours by actively contributing to this global fund and recognising our responsibilities as a major fossil fuel producer.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-climate-summit-just-approved-a-loss-and-damage-fund-what-does-this-mean-218999">COP28 climate summit just approved a 'loss and damage' fund. What does this mean?</a>
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<h2>Committing to fossil fuel phase out key to winning Pacific support</h2>
<p>The only way to actually stop harming communities in the Pacific is to stop adding fuel to the fire. That means stopping the approval of new coal, oil and gas projects and committing to a managed phase-out of fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Australia has put up its hand to host COP31 with Pacific island countries in 2026.
To be a successful host of the UN climate talks, Australia will need to actively support the Pacific’s fight for survival. We can’t just keep throwing money at the problem. We need to be part of the solution.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219399/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wesley Morgan is a senior researcher with the Climate Council</span></em></p>As Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen lands in Dubai for COP28, Australia has announced an extra A$150 in climate finance with a focus on the Pacific region.Wesley Morgan, Research Fellow, Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2189302023-12-04T04:00:29Z2023-12-04T04:00:29ZTwo charts in Australia’s 2023 climate statement show we are way off track for net zero by 2050<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563183/original/file-20231204-16-c3vl5c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C8%2C5706%2C3784&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/perth-australia-march-10-2023-highway-2273584563">Adwo, Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen has <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/speeches/annual-climate-change-statement-parliament-0">announced Australia is “within striking distance”</a> of the government’s 2030 emissions reduction target.</p>
<p>The good news was in the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/strategies/annual-climate-change-statement-2023">2023 Climate Statement</a> he tabled in parliament late last week. </p>
<p>Our commitment under the Paris Agreement is to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 43% relative to 2005 levels by 2030, and to reach net zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, a closer look at the statement suggests Australia is unlikely to achieve net zero by 2050 in the absence of radical policy changes. The problem can be seen in the following charts, included in the statement.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-1005" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/1005/8c0b99253c5dbedadfd4d2db9729d8e447341dbd/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The devil in the detail</h2>
<p>At first sight, the picture looks encouraging. Total emissions, represented by the yellow line, have declined greatly since the peak just after 2005. The trajectory looks consistent with net zero by 2050. The red dotted line, taking account of additional measures planned by the government, but not yet committed, lowers emissions a bit further.</p>
<p>A closer look leads to a gloomier conclusion. Nearly all of the reduction arises from just two categories: electricity and “LULUCF”, which stands for “<a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/land-use/workstreams/land-use--land-use-change-and-forestry-lulucf">land use, land-use change and forestry</a>”. </p>
<p>This can be seen by turning to the original source of the data. The Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water provides a graph showing the same data, but with the different sources of emissions shown separately, rather than being stacked as they were in the previous graph.</p>
<p><iframe id="vSeop" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vSeop/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The decline in electricity emissions reflects the rapid replacement of coal and gas-fired electricity by renewables (mainly solar power, wind and hydro, firmed by battery storage). This transition is well underway, and likely to continue. </p>
<p>The bad news is the transition to renewable electricity will be complete around 2035, after which there can be no further reductions.</p>
<p>The other main source of declining (in fact, negative) emissions is a grab bag of measures such as reductions in land clearing. There is debate over whether reductions from this source are genuine and sustainable. But the big decline in emissions from land use, land use change and forestry was over by 2015. As with electricity, there is little hope of future emissions reductions from this source.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-will-underwrite-risky-investments-in-renewables-heres-why-thats-a-good-idea-218427">The government will underwrite risky investments in renewables – here's why that's a good idea</a>
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<h2>How can we further reduce emissions?</h2>
<p>The biggest remaining sources of emissions are transport, stationary energy (heating and burning fuel for industry), “fugitive” emissions from coal and gas production, and agriculture. </p>
<p>All of these are projected to remain roughly constant between now and 2035, and there is little reason to expect sharp declines after that, at least under current policies. So, on our current trajectory, we are unlikely to get much below 50% of 2005 emissions, let alone net zero, by 2050.</p>
<p>Looking at the sectors individually, emissions from agriculture are difficult to reduce, unless we also reduce production, particularly of meat. There have been lots of proposals to reduce emissions of methane from ruminants (mostly belches), but none has appeared practical so far. That means deeper reductions will be needed in other sectors.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/7-food-and-agriculture-innovations-needed-to-protect-the-climate-and-feed-a-rapidly-growing-world-218414">7 food and agriculture innovations needed to protect the climate and feed a rapidly growing world</a>
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<p>In the case of transport and stationary energy, there are few technological obstacles to the achievement of drastic emissions reductions. The technology to electrify land transport, heating and most industrial processes is readily available. But there seems to be little government urgency to implement this technology.</p>
<p>As far as households are concerned, the crucial requirements are to replace internal combustion engine vehicles with electrics, and to replace gas for home use with electricity. Both are entirely feasible and, if we made a determined start today, the transition could be complete before 2050. </p>
<p>But that would require a rapid end to the purchase of new vehicles with internal combustion engines and of new gas connections for households. Neither seems likely.</p>
<p>The government’s <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/transport/national-electric-vehicle-strategy">National Electric Vehicles strategy</a> released in April, included a <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/joint-media-release-australias-first-national-electric-vehicle-strategy-drive-cleaner-cheaper-run-vehicles">commitment to a Fuel Efficiency Standard</a> for new light vehicles. The draft standard was supposed to be released this year, but has not yet appeared. </p>
<p>Unless the standard is considerably more stringent than appears likely at present, the dominant position of polluting vehicles in new sales is likely to persist for some time.</p>
<p>The government rejected the recommendations of the Climate Change Authority in this area. The authority proposed a standard for heavy vehicles, and an end to polluting light vehicle sales by 2040. On this basis, there will be millions of dirty cars and trucks with internal combustion engines still on the road by 2050.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-how-will-australia-navigate-domestic-climate-wins-and-fossil-fuel-exports-at-the-negotiating-table-218697">COP28: How will Australia navigate domestic climate wins and fossil fuel exports at the negotiating table?</a>
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<h2>A disturbing pattern of inaction</h2>
<p>The same pattern of inaction applies to electrification of home energy. The Victorian government has taken the lead on banning gas connections, and the Authority recommended adopting a national approach. But <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/speeches/annual-climate-change-statement-parliament-0">Bowen declined</a>, saying “the government does not support a national ban on gas connections to new homes”.</p>
<p>Even more concerning are projections for fugitive emissions from coal and gas production. These are effectively flat, implying the government expects production to continue at current levels indefinitely into the future. In turn, this implies that, as well as failing to deliver on its own 2050 net zero pledge, the government is betting the world as a whole will fail at this. Sadly, they may be right.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-could-australia-actually-get-to-net-zero-heres-how-217778">How could Australia actually get to net zero? Here's how</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218930/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a former member of the Climate Change Authority.</span></em></p>Australia’s latest climate change statement shows we have little hope of reaching net zero emissions by 2050. There’s good news on the 2030 target, but then what?John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2186972023-11-29T19:18:21Z2023-11-29T19:18:21ZCOP28: How will Australia navigate domestic climate wins and fossil fuel exports at the negotiating table?<p>As the COP28 climate summit gets underway in the oil production hub of the United Arab Emirates today, Australia’s climate minister Chris Bowen will detail our progress in meeting emissions cut targets and updated projections. </p>
<p>The second Annual Climate Change Statement will be tabled in parliament at noon. But we already know some of the detail. Australia is now likely to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/26/cop28-australia-to-bring-evidence-it-can-meet-2030-climate-target-but-pressure-builds-over-fossil-fuels">cut its emissions 42% below 2005 levels by 2030</a> – very close to the legislated 43% target the government <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=r6885">introduced last year</a>.</p>
<p>This is likely to give Bowen a spring in his step, when combined with last week’s funding announcement <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-will-underwrite-risky-investments-in-renewables-heres-why-thats-a-good-idea-218427">on renewables and storage</a>. From this strengthened platform, he will argue Australia can be trusted to meet its climate goals. </p>
<p>Next week Bowen heads to Dubai to lead Australia’s negotiating team. He can expect international pressure to be more ambitious in setting the nation’s 2035 target. This is essential if we are to <a href="https://unfccc.int/documents/631600">keep 1.5°C within reach</a>. Scientists consistently say wealthy countries such as Australia should be cutting their emissions by <a href="https://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/australias-paris-agreement-pathways">50 to 75% by 2030</a> to meet the Paris Agreement goals. </p>
<p>But Bowen can also expect a different pressure, as efforts to phase down or phase out fossil fuels such as Australia’s gas and coal gather pace. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-disasters-and-heat-intensify-can-the-world-meet-the-urgency-of-the-moment-at-the-cop28-climate-talks-217063">As disasters and heat intensify, can the world meet the urgency of the moment at the COP28 climate talks?</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<h2>What role will Australia play in COP28 negotiations?</h2>
<p>At COP28, Australian negotiators are likely to have two broad objectives. The first is to achieve ambitious emissions reductions in line with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal. The agreement requires countries to make increasingly stringent five year plans – called “nationally determined contributions” – in line with keeping global warming within the range of 1.5–2°C. </p>
<p>The second is to ensure positive outcomes for our Pacific neighbours. These objectives are linked, given the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Foreign_Affairs_Defence_and_Trade/Supportingdemocracy/Report/Chapter_3_-_Climate_Change">existential threat</a> climate change poses to many Pacific island countries if 1.5°C of warming is exceeded. </p>
<p>Australia will play a prominent role in negotiations around adapting to climate change, as assistant climate minister Jenny McAllister will <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/mcallister/media-releases/australias-role-pre-cop-climate-talks#:%7E:text=Assistant%20Minister%20McAllister%20accepted%20an,parties%20to%20the%20Paris%20Agreement">co-chair this work</a>. We will also be visible in efforts to lay out the ground rules for the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-a-year-on-from-climate-change-funding-breakthrough-poor-countries-eye-disappointment-at-dubai-summit-217198">new Loss and Damage fund</a>, a key outcome from last year’s COP27 in Egypt. </p>
<p>Negotiators are also hoping for an announcement on Australia’s bid to host a joint Australia-Pacific COP meeting in 2026. This bid has already <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/what-makes-cop28-important/">increased global scrutiny</a> of Australia’s international engagement on climate and its domestic actions.</p>
<h2>The elephant in the room will be fossil fuels</h2>
<p>For many nations – especially our Pacific neighbours – the elephant in the room is Australia’s plans to keep expanding fossil fuel production. This overshadows Australia’s credibility on domestic emissions reduction and its commitment to the Pacific. </p>
<p>As resources minister Madeleine King <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/king/media-releases/australia-retains-energy-export-world-leader-status">spruiked in June</a>, Australia is “one of the world’s largest exporters of liquefied natural gas, as well as the world’s largest exporter of metallurgical coal and second largest exporter of thermal coal”, based on 2021 figures. </p>
<p>The federal government <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/02/coalmine-approvals-in-australia-this-year-could-add-150m-tonnes-of-co2-to-atmosphere">continues to approve</a> new and expanded coal mines under the nation’s main environmental laws, the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act. This is despite the contribution to climate change made by the emissions of the coal when burned.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562304/original/file-20231129-27-jonlc0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="coal mine Australia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562304/original/file-20231129-27-jonlc0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562304/original/file-20231129-27-jonlc0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562304/original/file-20231129-27-jonlc0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562304/original/file-20231129-27-jonlc0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562304/original/file-20231129-27-jonlc0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562304/original/file-20231129-27-jonlc0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562304/original/file-20231129-27-jonlc0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>In October 2023, the <a href="https://www.judgments.fedcourt.gov.au/judgments/Judgments/fca/single/2023/2023fca1208">Federal Court ruled</a> environment minister Tanya Plibersek could legally decide on coal mine proposals under the act without considering their potential climate impacts.</p>
<p>At COP28, observers expect to see a strong push for the <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/cop28-fossil-fuel-phaseout-carbon-bombs">phase-down</a> or total phase-out of unabated fossil fuels, given mounting evidence that <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/production-gap-report-2023">planned fossil fuel production</a> would blow the world’s remaining carbon budget several times over. </p>
<p>Even the COP28 President – UAE oil company CEO Sultan al-Jaber – has declared the phase-down of fossil fuels is <a href="https://time.com/6335225/sultan-al-jaber-cop28-interview/">“inevitable” and “essential”</a>. This has been undercut by reports the UAE <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-67508331">plans to make oil deals</a> during the climate talks. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-inside-the-united-arab-emirates-the-oil-giant-hosting-2023-climate-change-summit-217859">COP28: inside the United Arab Emirates, the oil giant hosting 2023 climate change summit</a>
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<p>Australia’s position on phasing down fossil fuels remains uncertain but there’s an indication of the likely policy direction in Bowen’s <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/speeches/speech-lowy-institute">recent speech</a> to the Lowy Institute. </p>
<p>In this speech, the minister described Australia’s position as a “traditional fossil fuel-based economy in the middle of a major transition” to a low-carbon energy system. On energy exports, he sees Australia transforming from a major fossil fuel producer to a renewable energy superpower.</p>
<p>As Bowen noted, our domestic decarbonisation efforts are important, but <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/speeches/speech-lowy-institute">in global terms</a> they: </p>
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<p>[…] pale in comparison to the emissions reductions achieved if we are able to harness and export our renewable energy to help countries without our abundant renewable resources to decarbonise.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>How Australia navigates this dilemma will be of great interest to our Pacific neighbours and other international onlookers at COP28. </p>
<p>For many, it will be the real litmus test for Australia’s ambition to be a global climate leader.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-disasters-and-heat-intensify-can-the-world-meet-the-urgency-of-the-moment-at-the-cop28-climate-talks-217063">As disasters and heat intensify, can the world meet the urgency of the moment at the COP28 climate talks?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218697/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jacqueline Peel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New emissions projections bode well for Australia’s climate efforts – but our fossil fuel exports continue apace. Jacqueline Peel, Director, Melbourne Climate Futures, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2187062023-11-29T19:17:52Z2023-11-29T19:17:52ZWhat is a ‘just’ transition to net zero - and why is Australia struggling to get there?<p>Australia’s net-zero transition is struggling. Despite the government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-will-underwrite-risky-investments-in-renewables-heres-why-thats-a-good-idea-218427">efforts</a>, announced last week, to revive flagging investment in renewable energy, greenhouse gas emissions from existing industry are still <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/time-is-running-out-to-reach-our-emissions-target-and-our-path-needs-changing/">rising</a>. Yet under the Paris Agreement, Australia must adopt <a href="https://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/australias-paris-agreement-pathways">even more ambitious targets</a> for 2035.</p>
<p>At the same time, governments in Australia and overseas are facing <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-beat-rollout-rage-the-environment-versus-climate-battle-dividing-regional-australia-213863">rising community opposition</a> to the rollout of clean energy infrastructure needed for a net zero transition. Such opposition is being <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/robert-lambrou-alternative-for-germany-heat-pump-election-climate-change/">exploited by right-wing parties</a> for electoral gain.</p>
<p>But that pressure only underscores what the Australian government must do. To lift its climate game, it needs a mission-oriented, whole-of-government approach, built on what is known as a “<a href="https://climatepromise.undp.org/news-and-stories/what-just-transition-and-why-it-important">just transition</a>”.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The two main elements of a just transition</h2>
<p>A just transition requires both <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-human-factor-why-australias-net-zero-transition-risks-failing-unless-it-is-fair-214064">distributive justice</a> and procedural justice. Distributive justice means policies that ensure a fair distribution of the economic burdens and benefits of the climate transition, along with protections for low-income people.</p>
<p>Procedural justice includes – but goes beyond – engaging with workers directly impacted by the decline of fossil fuel production. It means going beyond engagement with stakeholders that mainly represent incumbent industries.</p>
<p>A just transition would give all of Australia’s communities a chance to not only take part in discussions about the costs and benefits of different approaches to net zero, but also to have a say in designing climate policies that directly affect them.</p>
<p>The success of the net zero transition may depend on the government’s willingness to use the expertise of local communities in finding solutions for the lands and waters they know best.</p>
<p>The Labor government <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news/net-zero-authority-gives-more-australians-a-chance-to-prosper-from-renewables">signed</a> the <a href="https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20230313132211/https://ukcop26.org/supporting-the-conditions-for-a-just-transition-internationally/">Just Transition Declaration</a> at last year’s <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/cop27">COP27 global climate summit</a> at Sharm el-Sheikh. The declaration spells out this idea in its second principle:</p>
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<p>the development of effective, nationally coherent, locally driven and delivered just transition plans within countries is dependent on effective and inclusive social dialogue.</p>
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<p>Yet the Albanese government’s net-zero strategy has no explicit commitment to a just transition. Instead, its piecemeal strategy lacks integration and avoids tackling the essential phase-out of fossil fuels.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-could-australia-actually-get-to-net-zero-heres-how-217778">How could Australia actually get to net zero? Here's how</a>
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<h2>Many government bodies – but is there a plan?</h2>
<p>In May the government announced it would establish a statutory <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/news/new-national-net-zero-authority">Net Zero Authority</a> “to ensure the workers, industries and communities that have powered Australia for generations can seize the opportunities of Australia’s net zero transformation.”</p>
<p>The authority is expected to “help investors and companies to engage with net zero transformation opportunities,” to help regions and communities attract new investment in clean energy, and to assist workers in the transition away from emissions-intensive industries.</p>
<p>To design the legislation to create the Net Zero Authority and to “immediately kick-start” its work, in July the government set up an interim body known as the <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/news/net-zero-economy-agency">Net Zero Economic Agency</a>, located in the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet.</p>
<p>The agency is chaired by former Labor climate change minister Greg Combet and supported by a ten-member <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/appointment-net-zero-economy-agency-and-advisory-board">advisory board</a>. The mining industry and mining unions are well represented, holding three seats. However, many key stakeholders, including environmental and climate NGOs and the social welfare sector, are not represented.</p>
<p>At the same time, climate minister Chris Bowen has established a <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/joint-media-release-delivering-australias-climate-and-energy-transformation">Net Zero Taskforce</a> in the Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water to advise on the 2035 emissions reduction target and the plan to reach net zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>Guided by the advice of the Climate Change Authority, the taskforce will develop <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction/net-zero">six sectoral decarbonisation plans</a> in:</p>
<ul>
<li>electricity and energy</li>
<li>industry</li>
<li>resources</li>
<li>the built environment</li>
<li>agriculture and land</li>
<li>transport.</li>
</ul>
<p>How the work of all these bodies fits together is unclear. An overarching Net Zero National Cabinet Committee, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">as suggested</a> by the Grattan Institute’s Tony Wood, could provide the necessary coordination, as long as it is guided by an integrated strategy for a net zero just transition.</p>
<p>Yet a just transition is not mentioned on government websites relating to the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction/net-zero">interim agency</a> and the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction/net-zero">taskforce</a>, other than to say that they will engage with communities, industry, First Nations, and unions, with an emphasis on affected workers in regions. There is no earmarked funding, institutional innovation, or capacity building to enable inclusive dialogues across communities and society.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<h2>Lessons in dialogue at home and overseas</h2>
<p>The Net Zero Authority is well positioned to coordinate and fund such dialogues, which are best approached from a perspective geared towards <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2022.2108365">systemic change</a>.</p>
<p>As the <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/sydney-policy-lab/">Sydney Policy Lab</a> has found in its community “listening campaign” on the climate transition in <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/sydney-policy-lab/research-and-policy/real-deal.html">Geelong</a>, the authority’s transition planning will lack support if it ignores the issues (such as secure housing and affordable living) communities most worry about.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-new-dawn-becoming-a-green-superpower-with-a-big-role-in-cutting-global-emissions-216373">Australia's new dawn: becoming a green superpower with a big role in cutting global emissions</a>
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<p>Such approaches have already met with considerable success elsewhere. In Denmark, <a href="https://www.oecd.org/environment/cc/g20-climate/collapsecontents/Just-Transition-Centre-report-just-transition.pdf">an OECD study</a> found social dialogues have been a significant factor in the country’s successful transition to wind power. It now accounts for <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/wind-power-meets-and-beats-denmarks-total-electricity-demand-two-days-in-a-row/">a major share</a> of Denmark’s energy output.</p>
<p>And in Sweden, the government’s Innovation Agency, <a href="https://rri-tools.eu/-/designing-missions-mission-oriented-innovation-in-sweden-a-practice-guide-by-vinnova#:%7E:text=SUMMARY&text=This%20book%20describes%20how%20Vinnova,developed%20by%20Vinnova%20in%20detail">Vinnova</a>, has recently developed highly collaborative processes for redesigning energy, food and other systems to achieve net zero and other goals.</p>
<p>Far from slowing the transition, a commitment to inclusive dialogue will secure it by building the social license for change, while ensuring some measure of accountability for the injustices of the fossil fuel era.</p>
<p>The more inclusive the dialogue, the better the government will be able to minimise political backlash as decarbonisation accelerates.</p>
<h2>A national net zero summit</h2>
<p>To reach these outcomes will need significant coordination between federal, state and local governments, and across government departments.</p>
<p>To jumpstart this process, and building on the success of <a href="https://nexteconomy.com.au/wp-content/uploads/TNE-CQ-Energy-Futures-Report-02_0601.pdf">regional summits</a>, a national summit should be convened to explore the perspectives and initiatives of a wide range of stakeholders. That means not just unions and workers (as important as they may be) but also climate and energy NGOs, local governments and historically marginalised communities.</p>
<p>A net zero summit would place the perspectives of policy elites and incumbent interests in dialogue with the diverse demands of citizens. It must include Indigenous communities, on whose lands much of the renewable energy infrastructure is likely to be built and critical minerals likely to be extracted.</p>
<p>Debate at the summit cannot be perfunctory. It must provide ample space for many voices. The goal is to discover, propose and fund a net zero transition in ways that don’t unduly privilege the needs of investors and companies, but instead champion the wisdom and solutions of local communities.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-juukan-gorge-how-first-nations-people-are-taking-charge-of-clean-energy-projects-on-their-land-213864">Beyond Juukan Gorge: how First Nations people are taking charge of clean energy projects on their land</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218706/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robyn Eckersley has received research funding in the past from the Australian Research Council and she currently hold a research grant with the Research Council of Norway. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erin Fitz-Henry does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s clean energy transition cannot succeed unless the government opens debate and decision-making to many more voices.Robyn Eckersley, Redmond Barry Professor of Political Science, School of Social and Political Sciences, The University of MelbourneErin Fitz-Henry, Senior Lecturer in Anthropology, University of Melbourne, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2186232023-11-29T13:53:18Z2023-11-29T13:53:18ZClimate change: 3 key goals Nigeria must focus on at COP28<p>Global environmental stakeholders will converge in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates, from 30 November to 12 December 2023 for the UN Climate conference known as COP28. The conference aims to continue negotiations to address the global climate crisis. Nigeria’s main agenda in the conference is climate finance needed for climate change mitigation and adaptation.</p>
<p>Past conferences have resulted in some landmark agreements. However, the negotiation process to institute international climate finance has been thorny for developing countries. Nigeria’s diplomatic and negotiating strategies will have to be top-notch at COP28. </p>
<p>Nigeria has experienced a harsh climate change reality. The <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/publication/climate-change-nigeria-impacts-and-responses">effects</a> of climate change include flooding, desertification, coastal erosion, drought, deforestation, land degradation and pollution. These are also associated with <a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/abs/10.10520/EJC-12b792bb32">human security issues</a> such as food insecurity, resource conflicts and political instability. </p>
<p>Nigeria and other developing countries are disproportionately affected by climate change. This is despite their historically <a href="https://www.afdb.org/en/cop25/climate-change-africa">low contributions</a> to global warming compared to the developed countries. It is noteworthy that African countries, including Nigeria, will continue to link their development agenda to the international <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-77481-3_28">climate regime</a>.</p>
<p>For this reason, Nigeria has committed to global climate mandates through policies such as the <a href="https://climatechange.gov.ng/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/NDC_File-Amended-_11222.pdf">Nationally Determined Contribution</a>, the <a href="https://climatechange.gov.ng/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/NCCP_NIGERIA_REVISED_2-JUNE-2021.pdf">National Climate Change Policy for Nigeria</a>, the <a href="https://natccc.gov.ng/">National Climate Change Council</a> and the <a href="https://energytransition.gov.ng/">Energy Transition Plan</a>. Nigeria’s active participation in COP28 is critical to its development and citizens’ well-being.</p>
<p>I am a political scientist with <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=k_Lsu_8AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">research</a> in environmental and energy politics. I argue that Nigeria should focus on three climate finance goals at COP28. These are:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the loss and damage finance mechanism</p></li>
<li><p>Nigerian Energy Transition Plan finance</p></li>
<li><p>adaptation finance.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Securing these funds will immediately enhance Nigeria’s ability to respond to climate change. The funds are critical for meeting the country’s immediate, medium, and long-term climate goals. If Nigeria secures the finance it needs, it will be a landmark achievement in the country’s environmental diplomacy. </p>
<p>Nigeria has found it more difficult than many African countries to obtain international climate finance. Its lack of readiness and <a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/abs/10.31920/2050-4284/2019/s1n1a1">corruption</a> reputation have been blamed for this. </p>
<h2>1. Loss and damage fund</h2>
<p>The successful agreement on the <a href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/climate/cop27_fail_success_of_loss_and_damage/">Loss and Damage Fund</a> was the lone positive outcome of COP27. The fund was established to <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/what-you-need-know-about-cop27-loss-and-damage-fund">provide</a> assistance to the countries most vulnerable to and most affected by climate change. This agreement signifies that developing countries are becoming assertive and influential in the climate negotiation process. </p>
<p>Nigeria and other developing countries should not stop at the agreement. COP28 provides a platform for further clarification of funding mechanisms. Access to the fund and implementation of adaptation projects will advance for Nigeria and others once there is clarity. </p>
<p>The Loss and Damage Fund will help Nigeria to address some of its climate-induced human security crises. In recent years, flooding and resource conflicts have <a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/abs/10.10520/EJC-12b792bb32">exacerbated</a> loss and damage in Nigeria. The country cannot afford any hesitancy or stalemate on the implementation of the Loss and Damage Fund at COP28. </p>
<h2>2. Energy Transition Plan</h2>
<p>Nigeria announced its commitment to <a href="https://statehouse.gov.ng/news/at-cop26-president-buhari-pledges-net-zero-emissions-by-2060-says-nigeria-will-maintain-gas-based-energy-transition/#:%7E:text=The%20Statehouse%2C%20Abuja-,At%20COP26%2C%20President%20Buhari%20Pledges%20Net%20Zero%20Emissions%20by%202060,Maintain%20Gas%2DBased%20Energy%20Transition&text=President%20Muhammadu%20Buhari%20Tuesday%20in,to%20net%20zero%20by%202060">net-zero emissions</a> by 2060 at COP26. To achieve this, the country needs to fund its <a href="https://energytransition.gov.ng/">Energy Transition Plan</a> with US$1.9 trillion. This translates to an annual <a href="https://energytransition.gov.ng/">cost</a> of US$10 billion. </p>
<p>Meeting its Nationally Determined Contribution commitment will depend on its ability to secure international climate finance. Both initial and updated Nationally Determined Contributions are largely <a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/abs/10.31920/2516-3132/2020/v1n1a3">conditional</a> on this source of funding. Therefore, Nigeria’s COP28 negotiators and delegation must be adept at securing finance to carry out the country’s Energy Transition Plan. </p>
<h2>3. Adaptation finance</h2>
<p>Nigeria’s weak performance in climate change adaptation can be <a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/abs/10.31920/2050-4284/2019/s1n1a1">traced</a> to lack of financing. Hesitancy to invest in <a href="https://repository.nwu.ac.za/handle/10394/40189">reducing</a> citizens’ vulnerability to climate change leads to <a href="https://repository.nwu.ac.za/handle/10394/40189">socioeconomic crisis</a>. </p>
<p>Nigeria should not expect to easily get the funds it needs for adaptation at COP28. Only US$230 million was <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/disappointed-surprised-why-cop27-failed-african-cop-/">pledged</a> for adaptation at the last conference. Raising the required funds will require deft diplomatic moves.</p>
<h2>Why this matters</h2>
<p>COP28 is the time for the world and Nigeria to get their climate finance priorities right. </p>
<p>Nigeria will become more vulnerable to climate impacts if it fails to do this at COP28. A prolonged lack of adaptation finance would increase the number of Nigerians who are not resilient to climate change and its impact. Consequently, it would affect the country’s economy as climate change has an impact on livelihoods and health, damages infrastructure, and threatens food security. Similarly, failure to secure financing for the Energy Transition Plan could hamper Nigerian development projections. This is because the Federal Government treats this as a development plan. </p>
<p>COP28 represents a critical socioeconomic juncture for Nigeria, and the country has to secure international climate finance.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218623/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bamidele Olajide does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>COP28 gives Nigeria another chance to fight for financing it needs to adapt to climate change.Bamidele Olajide, Lecturer (Political Science), University of LagosLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2176362023-11-29T13:51:15Z2023-11-29T13:51:15ZLow emissions and economic survival – countries in the global south aren’t getting a fair deal<p><em>In 2015, more than 140 countries <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-coalition">signed up</a> to the goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. For countries in the global south this is a huge task. On the one hand they have committed to low emissions. On the other their economic survival depends on using resources that produce high emissions. International economic law scholar Olabisi D. Akinkugbe unpacks the issue of climate justice, and how climate laws and foreign investment laws fit into the picture.</em></p>
<h2>What is climate justice and why is achieving it such a challenge?</h2>
<p>Climate change policies are designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (which mainly come from the use of fossil fuels) and shift socio-economic activities towards the use of renewable energies. But, unless these changes are made in a manner that considers historical responsibility for the economic imbalances between countries, they risk crippling the economies of the global south.</p>
<p>That’s why institutions such as the United Nations Development Programme have called for <a href="https://climatepromise.undp.org/news-and-stories/climate-change-matter-justice-heres-why">climate justice</a>, which means:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>putting equity and human rights at the core of decision making and action on climate change. The concept has been widely used to refer to the unequal historical responsibility that countries and communities bear in relation to the climate crisis. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>A climate justice approach to climate change would consider that developing countries did not <a href="https://www.cgdev.org/media/who-caused-climate-change-historically">contribute</a> to climate change as much as developed countries but bear a <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/01/climate-crisis-poor-davos2023/">disproportionate burden</a> of the impact of climate change.</p>
<p>Yet, as we detail <a href="https://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2854&context=ilj">in a recent paper</a>, a combination of legal frameworks for climate change and foreign direct investment is making the situation worse for developing countries. These laws inform the debate on climate change.</p>
<h2>What are the laws? How are they flawed?</h2>
<p>International climate change law is a layered and complex set of principles, rules, regulations and institutions. </p>
<p>The United Nations climate change regime is at the centre of the international action to address climate change. It does this by addressing <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-wg2-chapter18-1.pdf">mitigation and adaptation</a> challenges. The regime includes the <a href="https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf">1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a> and the <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf">2015 Paris Agreement</a>. It also includes the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> (IPCC), and decisions of bodies like the Conference of Parties to the Convention (“COP”) and the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>The relationship between climate goals and international investment and trade has attracted more attention from <a href="https://www.oecd.org/investment/investment-policy/OECD-investment-treaties-climate-change-consultation-responses.pdf">scholars</a> since the 2022 <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_FullReport.pdf">report</a> of the Working Group III of the IPCC highlighted the <a href="https://www.veblen-institute.org/IPCC-points-out-the-incompatibility-between-protecting-fossil-investments-and.html">incompatibility</a> of climate goals and trade and investment regimes. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a> is the primary point of intersection between investment law and climate law. Among other goals, the agreement aspires to make finance flows consistent with low emissions pathways and climate resilient development.</p>
<p>In the <a href="https://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2854&context=ilj">study</a> I argue that investment law and climate change law are at odds with the quest for climate justice. There are at least four reasons:</p>
<p>First, calls for ambitious and expedited transition to climate-friendly investments leave developing countries at a disadvantage in attracting new investments. Mobilising climate finance for a clean energy transition is expensive. As the finance is also primarily in the form of loans, it deepens the <a href="https://www.afronomicslaw.org/sites/default/files/pdf/A%20Brief%20on%20Debt%20and%20Climate%20Vulnerable%20Countries%20in%20Africa.pdf">debt vulnerability</a> of developing countries.</p>
<p>Second, treaty-based solutions don’t adequately address the power imbalance in the investor-host state relationship. Investment treaties protect investors more than host states. Also, the investor-state dispute system has more consequences for developing countries. And there is <a href="https://www.iisd.org/itn/en/2013/03/22/remedies-in-investor-state-arbitration-a-public-interest-perspective/">disregard</a> for public interest concerns in the award of damages to investors.</p>
<p>Third, embracing market-based solutions led by transnational corporations may reinforce climate injustice while barely reducing emissions. The profit-oriented nature of the investment approach exacerbates the existing <a href="https://debtjustice.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Debt-and-the-Climate-Crisis-Briefing-October-2022-UPDATED.pdf">debt challenges</a> of developing countries.</p>
<p>Fourth, the risks of investor-state disputes, heavy damages and compensation are generally skewed against developing countries. This affects their capacity to take climate action. </p>
<p>Legal instruments protect foreign investors. The legal protection of foreign direct investment under public international law is guaranteed by international investment agreements and bilateral investment treaties. In addition, multilateral investment treaties, such as the <a href="https://www.energycharter.org/process/energy-charter-treaty-1994/energy-charter-treaty/">Energy Charter Treaty</a>, and some free trade agreements also protect direct investment. </p>
<p>An investor can sue a host state for violations of treaties or investment agreements and get damages. Developing countries have been on the receiving end of punitive damages. This has led to calls for <a href="https://www.afronomicslaw.org/2020/09/07/symposium-introduction-centering-voices-from-the-global-south-on-investor-state-dispute-settlement-reform-a-debate/">reform</a> of the arbitration regime that applies to investors and states. </p>
<h2>What should be done?</h2>
<p>The design of the global transition from fossil fuels to net-zero emissions must account for the economic differences between countries and allow for multiple pathways. This is particularly true for developing countries that must reorganise their economies to attract investments that reduce emissions and generate socioeconomic development, while addressing their debt exposures. </p>
<p>The misalignment of climate change law and international investment law deepens this challenge. This is because many African states depend on the extractive industry to sustain their economies. In addition, the global transition to renewable energy has wider ramifications to produce batteries, electric vehicles, and other renewable energy systems. All require mineral resources from the global south. </p>
<p>Green or climate-friendly investment places global south countries in an unequal position on the international energy chart.</p>
<p>Developing countries, therefore, face the dilemma of balancing fossil fuel extraction with climate-friendly investments. Increased demands for electric vehicles and renewable energy present opportunities for developing states. But many lack the capacity to capture parts of the supply chains of the new green economy. </p>
<p>The transition to net-zero emissions thus poses <a href="https://www.afronomicslaw.org/category/african-sovereign-debt-justice-network-afsdjn/statement-african-sovereign-debt-justice">several problems</a>: climate crisis, extreme poverty, and lack of access to energy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217636/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olabisi D. Akinkugbe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Climate and investment laws must align for the global south to get climate justice and achieve net-zero emissions.Olabisi D. Akinkugbe, Associate Professor & Viscount Bennett Professor of Law, Dalhousie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2170632023-11-28T19:13:45Z2023-11-28T19:13:45ZAs disasters and heat intensify, can the world meet the urgency of the moment at the COP28 climate talks?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561994/original/file-20231127-23-mddbin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C65%2C5406%2C2952&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Eight years ago, the world agreed to an ambitious target in the Paris Agreement: hold warming to 1.5°C to limit further dangerous levels of climate change. </p>
<p>Since then, greenhouse gas emissions have kept increasing – and climate disasters have become front page news, from mega-bushfires to unprecedented floods. </p>
<p>In 2023, the world is at 1.2°C of warming over pre-industrial levels. Heatwaves of increasing intensity and duration are <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-heat-in-north-america-europe-and-china-in-july-2023-made-much-more-likely-by-climate-change">arriving around the world</a>. We now have <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf">less than 10 years</a> before we reach 1.5°C of warming. </p>
<p>This week, the <a href="https://www.cop28.com/">COP28 climate talks</a> will begin against a backdrop of evermore strident warnings from climate scientists and world leaders. United Nations chief António Guterres has warned climate action is “dwarfed by the scale of the challenge” and that we have “<a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/09/1141082">opened the gates of hell</a>”. In his <a href="https://www.vatican.va/content/francesco/en/apost_exhortations/documents/20231004-laudate-deum.html">latest climate letter</a>, Pope Francis quotes bishops from Africa who dub the climate crisis a “tragic and striking example of structural sin”.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="Global monthly land and ocean anomalies from 1850, relative to the 1901-2000 average" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562273/original/file-20231128-17-3u0pgj.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562273/original/file-20231128-17-3u0pgj.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562273/original/file-20231128-17-3u0pgj.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562273/original/file-20231128-17-3u0pgj.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562273/original/file-20231128-17-3u0pgj.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=704&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562273/original/file-20231128-17-3u0pgj.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=704&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562273/original/file-20231128-17-3u0pgj.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=704&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global monthly land and ocean anomalies from 1850, relative to the 1901-2000 average.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies/anomalies">NOAA</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the United Arab Emirates, the 198 nations in the <a href="https://unfccc.int/about-us/about-the-secretariat">UN’s climate framework</a> will gather for COP28. Can we expect to see real progress – or half-measures? </p>
<p>Watch for these three key issues facing negotiators. </p>
<h2>1. Taking stock of progress on climate action</h2>
<p>This year, a critical issue will be the <a href="https://unfccc.int/documents/631600">global stocktake</a>, the key mechanism designed to ratchet up climate ambition under the 2015 Paris Agreement. This is the first time each nation’s emission cut targets and benefits from climate adaptation or economic diversification plans have been assessed. </p>
<p>The stocktake reveals what track we are on. Do the combined emission cut promises from all countries mean we can limit warming to 1.5°C? If not, what is the “emissions gap” – and how much more ambitious do nation’s emission reductions need to be?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/uns-global-stocktake-on-climate-offers-a-sobering-emissions-reckoning-but-there-are-also-signs-of-progress-217093">UN's 'global stocktake' on climate offers a sobering emissions reckoning − but there are also signs of progress</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>There’s been progress, but not nearly enough. If all national emissions pledges became a reality, global warming would peak between 2.1-2.8°C. </p>
<p>That leaves an emissions gap of around 22.9 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent over the period to 2030. </p>
<p>It is very good that the worst-case scenarios – unchecked warming and 4+ degrees of global heating by 2100 are <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-worst-climate-scenarios-may-no-longer-be-the-most-likely/">now looking unlikely</a>. But a 2°C world would bring unacceptable harm and irreversible damage. </p>
<p>We’ll need much more ambitious targets and support to cut global greenhouse gas emissions 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 compared with 2019 levels if we are to reach net zero CO₂ emissions by 2050 globally. A major measure of COP28’s success will be whether the major emitting nations agree on more ambitious emission reduction actions.</p>
<h2>2. Who pays for climate loss and damage?</h2>
<p>For decades, nations have wrestled over the fraught question of who should pay for loss and damage resulting from climate change. </p>
<p>Now we’re close to finalising arrangements for the new <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/cop27-reaches-breakthrough-agreement-on-new-loss-and-damage-fund-for-vulnerable-countries">Loss and Damage Fund</a>. This will be the second major issue for negotiators at COP28. </p>
<p>So far, governments have drawn up a blueprint for the new fund. Expect to see debate over who will manage the fund – the World Bank? A UN agency? – and whether emerging economies such as China will provide funds. To date, there’s no target for how much money the fund will hold and disburse. The blueprint must be formally adopted at COP28 before it can begin operating. </p>
<p>Why a new fund? Other climate finance commitments are aimed at cutting emissions or helping societies adapt to climate impacts. This fund <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/what-you-need-know-about-cop27-loss-and-damage-fund">deals specifically</a> with the loss and damage from the unavoidable impacts of climate change, like rising sea levels, prolonged heatwaves, desertification, the acidification of the sea, extreme weather and crop failures.</p>
<p>Think of the damage from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/pakistan-floods-what-role-did-climate-change-play-189833">unprecedented floods</a> in Pakistan or Libya, for instance. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562068/original/file-20231128-21-rkxo1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="libya flood, image of destroyed city with floodwater from air" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562068/original/file-20231128-21-rkxo1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562068/original/file-20231128-21-rkxo1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562068/original/file-20231128-21-rkxo1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562068/original/file-20231128-21-rkxo1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562068/original/file-20231128-21-rkxo1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562068/original/file-20231128-21-rkxo1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562068/original/file-20231128-21-rkxo1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Libya’s devastating floods in September killed thousands.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Where’s the climate finance?</h2>
<p>A major issue in climate negotiations is how countries can transform their economies so they are “climate ready”, with lower emissions and boosted resilience. For developing countries, this requires massive levels of investment and new technologies to let them “leapfrog” fossil fuel dependency.</p>
<p>This is likely to be a critical sticking point. To date, climate finance has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/developing-countries-propose-100bn-climate-damage-fund-2023-09-06/">flowed too slowly</a>. Under the Paris Agreement, rich countries promised to provide funds of A$150 billion a year every year. This has been slow in coming, though it is <a href="https://www.oecd.org/climate-change/finance-usd-100-billion-goal">nudging closer</a>, with $130 billion flowing in 2021.</p>
<p>Unless we see significant progress on climate finance – including making the Loss and Damage Fund a reality and meeting the existing commitments – we’re unlikely to see progress on other key issues such as ratcheting up emission cuts under the stocktake mechanism, phasing out fossil fuels and work on preserving biodiversity. </p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-september-we-went-past-1-5-degrees-in-november-we-tipped-over-2-degrees-for-the-first-time-whats-going-on-218228">In September we went past 1.5 degrees. In November, we tipped over 2 degrees for the first time. What's going on?</a>
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<h2>How do you build a 198-government consensus?</h2>
<p>One reason climate negotiations advance slowly is the need for consensus. </p>
<p>All 198 governments must agree on each decision. This means any one nation or group of countries can block a proposal or force the wording to be changed in order for it to be approved. </p>
<p>The votes of less wealthy countries – including small island nations and <a href="https://unctad.org/topic/least-developed-countries/list">least developed countries</a> – therefore carry as much weight as the G20 nations, who account for about 85% of global GDP. This has in the past worked to increase the level of climate action, including the focus on 1.5°C as the global warming target.</p>
<p>The COP28 President is <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/cop28-presidency">Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber</a>, who has attracted controversy due to the fact he heads the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. Expect to see <a href="https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/09/27/phase-out-or-phase-down-fight-over-fossil-fuels-heats-up-in-run-up-to-cop28">considerable debate over wording</a>. Will governments agree to the “phasing down of fossil fuels” or just the “phasing down of unabated fossil fuels”? </p>
<p>It might sound like quibbling but it’s not – the second option, for instance, implies the heavy use of yet-to-be-proven carbon capture and storage technologies and offsets.</p>
<p>Sultan al-Jaber has, to his credit, promoted some progressive agenda items including a focus on the conservation, restoration, and sustainable management of nature to help achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>Here, there are welcome commonalities with the major global biodiversity pact struck late last year, the <a href="https://www.cbd.int/gbf/">Global Biodiversity Framework</a>, aimed at stemming the extinction of species and degradation of ecosystems. Healthy ecosystems store carbon and help people adapt to the climate change already here.</p>
<p>As nations prepare for a fortnight of intense negotiation, the stakes are higher than they have ever been. Now the question is – can the world community seize the moment? </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-inside-the-united-arab-emirates-the-oil-giant-hosting-2023-climate-change-summit-217859">COP28: inside the United Arab Emirates, the oil giant hosting 2023 climate change summit</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217063/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brendan Mackey has received funding from the Australian Government to support his work with the IPCC 6th Assessment Report. He is a volunteer member of the Great Eastern Ranges connectivity conservation initiative science advisory group and board.</span></em></p>In what’s likely to be the hottest year on record, nations are gathering to try and hash out faster action on climate change. Here are the three main issues facing negotiators.Brendan Mackey, Director, Griffith Climate Action Beacon, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2170672023-11-26T08:40:39Z2023-11-26T08:40:39ZClimate adaptation funds are not reaching frontline communities: what needs to be done about it<p>Communities around the world face <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate/Africa-2022">increasingly severe</a> and <a href="https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/facts-about-climate-change-in-africa/">frequent impacts</a> from climate change. They are on the “frontlines” of droughts, flooding, desertification and sea level rise. </p>
<p>International climate finance is supposed to help. In the 2015 Paris Agreement, the world’s wealthiest countries pledged <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-glasgow-climate-pact/cop26-outcomes-finance-for-climate-adaptation#Developed-countries-have-pledged-USD-100-billion-a">US$50 billion annually</a> to support climate adaptation among those “particularly vulnerable” to climate change. Climate adaptation is the adjustments humans make to reduce exposure to climate risk. </p>
<p>Eight years later, it is clear that this money is failing to reach vulnerable “frontline communities”, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Recently, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Malawi, South Sudan and Niger have been among the <a href="https://www.germanwatch.org/sites/germanwatch.org/files/2021-01/cri-2021_table_10_most_affected_countries_in_2019.jpg">top ten most affected countries</a>.</p>
<p>The host country of the upcoming annual United Nations climate negotiations (COP28), the United Arab Emirates, has announced it is focused on “<a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/news/2023/10/cop28-presidency-co-hosts-global-dialogue-in-abu-dhabi-to-focus-on-accelerating-the-energy">fixing climate finance</a>”. </p>
<p>I am a researcher who has studied international climate finance for seven years, both at the annual COPs and through research in <a href="https://www.sei.org/about-sei/press-room/finance-for-climate-adaptation-fails-reach-most-vulnerable/">Madagascar</a>, Mauritius and <a href="https://www.sei.org/projects/equity-in-adaptation-finance/">Namibia</a>. My work explores how to make climate finance more equitable and accessible for vulnerable communities.</p>
<p>It’s my view that the countries that contribute the bulk of the funding for climate adaptation can ensure more money reaches those who need it most. To do that they must first understand why financing isn’t reaching frontline communities. Otherwise money will continue to fall well short of need.</p>
<h2>Why funding isn’t reaching vulnerable communities</h2>
<p>The clearest reason why adaptation finance does not reach these communities is that there is simply not enough of it. Wealthy countries have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/20/rich-countries-not-providing-poor-with-pledged-climate-finance-analysis-says">consistently failed</a> to deliver on the US$50 billion commitment. Every year the gap between needs and support grows. The latest <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2023">Adaptation Gap Report</a> estimates that international adaptation finance is 10-18 times below need.</p>
<p>Beyond this shortfall, the current structure of climate finance prevents frontline communities from accessing support. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378022000139">Studies show</a> that the poorest and most vulnerable countries receive less than their fair share of adaptation finance. Support for sub-Saharan African countries is <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-ways-in-which-finance-for-climate-adaptation-in-africa-falls-short-169280">as little as US$5 per person</a> per year. </p>
<p>Two key barriers explain this disconnect. The first is the overlap of climate vulnerability with conflict and political instability. <a href="https://www.icrc.org/sites/default/files/topic/file_plus_list/rain_turns_to_dust_climate_change_conflict.pdf#page=12">Twelve of the 20 countries</a> most vulnerable to climate change are also affected by conflict. Vulnerable countries are also prone to political turmoil, frequent changes in government, and high levels of government corruption.</p>
<p>UN climate funds and other major funders like the World Bank see these countries as less “ready” for adaptation projects. <a href="https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/handle/2027.42/169654">My research</a> has also found that wealthy countries worry their taxpayers’ money will be lost to corruption.</p>
<p>The second barrier is the finance application process. Proposals for UN climate funds, such as the <a href="https://www.wri.org/research/improving-access-green-climate-fund-how-fund-can-better-support-developing-country">Green Climate Fund</a>, can number hundreds of pages. Application requirements differ from fund to fund. It can take years to develop a proposal and to receive the money.</p>
<h2>Reaching frontline communities</h2>
<p>Even when vulnerable countries receive international support, further barriers can prevent it from reaching frontline communities. Currently, only <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-three-major-gaps-in-climate-adaptation-finance-for-developing-countries/">17% of adaptation finance has reached local levels</a>. My research in <a href="https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/handle/2027.42/169654">Madagascar and Mauritius</a> found both administrative and political barriers.</p>
<p>National governments consume resources administering grants, often hiring expensive foreign consultants to plan, implement and monitor projects. These costs eat into the money intended for local communities. The focus on large, individual projects tends to concentrate funding in one area, limiting how far benefits can reach.</p>
<p>Funds also require clear evidence of success. Governments might invest in projects they know will succeed rather than take innovative approaches or choose riskier areas. </p>
<p>National governments also make decisions for political reasons. They tend to distribute resources – including money for adaptation – based on what will help them stay in power. They are more likely to fund political supporters than opponents. Communities are often vulnerable precisely because they are politically marginalised.</p>
<p>Finally, studies show that adaptation finance, like development funding, can be lost to corruption and mismanagement. Wealthy and powerful elites can <a href="https://theecologist.org/2021/jan/22/adaptation-funds-increase-climate-vulnerability">“capture” the benefits</a> of internationally financed projects, such as a <a href="https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000050">disproportionate share of rice seeds</a> for a project to build the resilience of agriculture in Madagascar.</p>
<h2>How to fix it</h2>
<p>It is not too late to change how adaptation finance flows to ensure more of it reaches vulnerable communities. The first step is to increase funding for adaptation. Support for adaptation <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2023">actually declined in 2021</a>, the most recent year for which we have data. Wealthy countries must meet the commitments they made in the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>The second step is for UN funds, the World Bank and wealthy countries to dedicate a greater proportion of funding to the most vulnerable countries. They must do so regardless of whether these countries are affected by conflict, instability and corruption.</p>
<p>For UN funds this can be accomplished by simplifying and standardising application procedures. Funds can also dedicate more resources to help countries prepare proposals. They should focus less on demanding clear results and more on supporting adaptation that aligns with national and local priorities.</p>
<p>Wealthy countries that contribute to climate funds need to give up some power over the money. They will have to accept imperfect governance and that some funding will be lost to mismanagement and corruption. They have tolerated such trade-offs before, such as during the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/corruption-covid-19-how-to-fight-back/">COVID pandemic</a>, when urgency outweighed concerns over waste and fraud.</p>
<p>But funders should also push for increased transparency around projects. They can encourage scrutiny by local civil society groups, for example, by publishing project information in local languages.</p>
<p>The third step is to experiment. For example, the Green Climate Fund is currently experimenting with <a href="https://www.greenclimate.fund/project/fp024">“decentralised” adaptation finance</a> in Namibia. Rather than a single large project, the Namibian government broke the funds into 31 small grants for community-based organisations. Together with the University of Namibia, we are <a href="https://www.sei.org/projects/equity-in-adaptation-finance/">examining whether and how</a> this approach helps more funding reach frontline communities. Early results are encouraging.</p>
<p>Fixing climate finance is not simple, but it is urgent. Failing to do so means leaving the most vulnerable alone to face the increasing threats of climate change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217067/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine Browne has received funding from the US Department of Education (Fulbright-Hayes Doctoral Dissertation Abroad fellowship), US State Department (Fulbright Fellowship), the University of Michigan, and Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (FORMAS).</span></em></p>Getting climate funds to frontline communities may require rich countries and the UN easing control over how the money is spent.Katherine Browne, Research Fellow, Stockholm Environment InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2177782023-11-15T19:04:46Z2023-11-15T19:04:46ZHow could Australia actually get to net zero? Here’s how<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559509/original/file-20231115-21-4neopd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=22%2C28%2C3811%2C2126&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every bit of warming matters if we want to avoid the worst impacts for climate change, as the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle">latest report</a> from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change shows. </p>
<p>In 2020, we released modelling showing how Australia could get to net zero faster – and keep the Paris Agreement goal of holding warming to 1.5°C in play. Our new update shows this is still the case. </p>
<p>This week, we released our <a href="https://www.climateworkscentre.org/news/australia-can-still-decarbonise-in-line-with-the-paris-agreement/">latest modelling</a> based on cutting emissions in line with the 2015 Paris Agreement, which set an upper limit on warming of well below 2°C, with a commitment to strive for the lower harm limit of 1.5°C.</p>
<p>At present, the government’s 2030 goal is a 43% reduction from 2005 levels, with plans to set a further target for 2035 soon. Our new modelling of 1.5°C and well-below-2°C (1.8°C) pathways shows we must increase the pace of emissions cuts to between 48–66% for 2030 and 61%–85% for 2035. </p>
<p>This means Australia would reach net zero emissions by 2039, around a decade sooner than the current target of net zero by 2050. Our research shows this is possible. </p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-979" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/979/6e75228c4441731b7216d1175d0a951e4ab14cc2/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>So how do you actually do this?</h2>
<p>In July, the government announced the development of net zero plans for six sectors: electricity and energy, industry, built environment, agriculture and land, transport and resources. Treasurer Jim Chalmers <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/speeches/keynote-address-economic-and-social-outlook-conference">recently said</a> the government is preparing an ambitious policy agenda with <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/chalmers-plans-an-australian-way-to-slash-emissions-rebuild-economy-20231102-p5egxb.html">big spending</a> on green industries to help cut emissions, and to grow the economy as reliance on gas and coal falls. </p>
<p>These plans are now under development. Our modelling of these sectors shows which ones must cut emissions fastest – and how to do it for the least cost. </p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-981" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/981/a8672726ecaef46933402f360d6aa8e8e3f0be86/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p><strong>Electricity:</strong> In these 1.5°C and well-below-2°C least-cost scenarios, the electricity sector reaches near zero between 2034 and 2038. Renewable energy is already the least-cost way to generate power. In turn, clean electricity can help decarbonise the rest of the economy. </p>
<p><strong>Industry and resources:</strong> In our scenarios, industrial emissions fall by 42% (well-below-2°C) or 54% (1.5°C) by 2035. By 2050, they fall by 54% and 67% respectively. Earlier and faster electrification and uptake of hydrogen technologies through the 2020s and 2030s drives more emissions reductions in the 1.5°C scenario.</p>
<p><strong>Buildings:</strong> Rapid emissions reductions in the building sector come from electrification and improvements in energy performance in both scenarios. Housing energy efficiency improves by 41% by 2050 compared to today’s levels.</p>
<p><strong>Agriculture and land:</strong> Cutting emissions in line with the 1.5°C goal will require much more removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, mainly through sequestration in trees or soil. This can happen without damaging agricultural production. </p>
<p>How much CO₂ we need to pull from the air depends on our ambition. For the well-under-2°C scenario, we need to remove 1.4 billion tonnes (1.4 Gt). For 1.5°C, it’s 4.6 Gt. Farming emissions such as methane from livestock and nitrous oxide from fertilisers will take longer to cut, as emissions per, say, kilogram of beef falls while production increases overall. Adding algae to livestock feed and rolling out slow and controlled-release fertilisers may help lower emissions here.</p>
<p><strong>Transport:</strong> Without strong action on transport, emissions will keep growing. Both scenarios show minimal change in total transport sector emissions until 2030. That’s because steady increases in vehicle use as our population and economy grows will prevent overall reductions – even as people go electric. </p>
<p>Under both scenarios, the transport sector changes markedly. Electric vehicles (EVs) become dominant, making up 73% of new car sales under the 1.5°C scenario or 56% in the well-below-2°C scenario. Our modelling doesn’t account for the additional potential benefits of shifting trips from cars to public transport, or from road to rail freight.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-finally-has-a-net-zero-authority-heres-what-should-top-its-agenda-205029">Australia finally has a Net Zero Authority – here's what should top its agenda</a>
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<h2>For most sectors, net zero relies on clean electricity</h2>
<p>Our modelling suggests it’s most cost effective for Australia to rapidly switch fossil fuel electricity to renewable sources and push beyond the current 82% clean energy target by 2030. We should instead aim for between 83 and 90%, and almost 100% by 2050. </p>
<p>Coal-powered electricity generation disappears before 2035 in our 1.5°C scenario, and by late 2030s in our well-below-2°C scenario. Gas-powered electricity falls sharply around the same time period. </p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-980" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/980/af400a9c041b67b64d42dba12e10a3cd92c77251/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>By 2050, gas-fired power stations would contribute less than 1% of total generation, only firing up briefly to firm electricity supply to the grid.</p>
<p>Under both the 1.5°C and well-below-2°C scenarios, Australia’s electricity generation increases markedly. Renewable-powered electricity generation in 2030 would be greater than the total amount of electricity generated in 2020. By 2050, it is more than three times as great.</p>
<h2>The rise of hydrogen for hard-to-tackle sectors</h2>
<p>Support for green hydrogen <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-hydrogen-review-2023/executive-summary">has soared</a> in recent years, both internationally and locally through government programs such as <a href="https://arena.gov.au/funding/hydrogen-headstart/">Hydrogen Headstart</a>.</p>
<p>Why the change? Because of its potential uses in hard-to-green sectors. Industrial processes such as steelmaking rely on high temperatures. Traditionally coal has been used, but hydrogen is emerging as an alternative. It may have a role in transport, through fuel-cell vehicles, and to replace gas in those industries that rely on high-temperature heat.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559511/original/file-20231115-29-dv3rca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="molten steel rods in factory" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559511/original/file-20231115-29-dv3rca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559511/original/file-20231115-29-dv3rca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559511/original/file-20231115-29-dv3rca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559511/original/file-20231115-29-dv3rca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559511/original/file-20231115-29-dv3rca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559511/original/file-20231115-29-dv3rca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559511/original/file-20231115-29-dv3rca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Steelmaking has long been seen as hard to decarbonise. But hydrogen may offer a path to do so.</span>
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<p>Neither of our modelled scenarios show a role for hydrogen in buildings, passenger transport or short-haul freight. That’s because electrifying homes and using battery-electric vehicles is cheaper and more market-ready. </p>
<p>But our modelling shows hydrogen can play a role in industry, long-haul freight and maritime shipping – if it becomes commercially viable for these sectors.</p>
<p>In our scenarios, domestic hydrogen demand grows to between 383 and 465 petajoules by 2050 – around 12–16% of Australia’s energy demand. </p>
<h2>Time is more precious than ever</h2>
<p>Our latest analysis shows a 1.5°C least-cost pathway would see Australia reach net zero more than a decade earlier than the current goal of 2050.</p>
<p>If Australia and the rest of the world can cut emissions in line with the Paris Agreement goals, a safer and more prosperous future awaits.</p>
<p>But it’s only possible if Australia acts quickly, builds on the momentum towards net zero and seizes the enormous opportunities offered in fast decarbonisation.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-is-long-and-time-is-short-but-australias-pace-towards-net-zero-is-quickening-214570">The road is long and time is short, but Australia's pace towards net zero is quickening</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Skarbek is on the board of the Centre for New Energy Technologies, the Green Building Council of Australia, Sentient Impact Group and the Asia-Pacific Advisory Board of the Glasgow Financial Alliance on Net Zero. She is a member of the Net Zero Economy Agency Advisory Board, the Grattan Institute’s energy program reference panel and the Blueprint Institute’s strategic advisory council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Malos and Michael Li do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s still possible for Australia to cut emissions in line with holding climate change to 1.5°C. Here’s how.Anna Skarbek, CEO, Climateworks CentreAnna Malos, Climateworks Centre - Country Lead, Australia, Monash UniversityMichael Li, Research and Analysis Manager, Climateworks Centre, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2144632023-09-28T05:38:38Z2023-09-28T05:38:38ZThe green energy surge still isn’t enough for 1.5 degrees. We’ll have to overshoot, adapt and soak up carbon dioxide<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550517/original/file-20230927-29-1bck3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C5519%2C3660&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It was a rare bit of good news on climate. The International Energy Agency this week released its latest <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-roadmap-a-global-pathway-to-keep-the-15-0c-goal-in-reach">net zero roadmap</a>, showing it was still just possible to hold global heating to 1.5°C. </p>
<p>In the last two years, we’ve seen <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/renewable-power-on-course-to-shatter-more-records-as-countries-around-the-world-speed-up-deployment">major global investment</a> in clean energy, spurred on by energy independence concerns raised by the war in Ukraine, as well as intensifying extreme weather. </p>
<p>Even so, it’s unlikely to actually keep us under 1.5°C, the globally agreed target to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. </p>
<p>Why? Because emissions are <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-carbon-emissions-at-record-levels-with-no-signs-of-shrinking-new-data-shows-humanity-has-a-monumental-task-ahead-193108">still rising</a> – even as many countries make their energy grids greener. </p>
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<h2>Why is it so hard?</h2>
<p>In part, because we’ve left our run very late. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its first assessment in 1990. Since then, the world has emitted one trillion tonnes of carbon dioxide, which is two-thirds of the carbon budget. That is, the amount of permissible emissions that would feasibly allow us to limit global warming to 1.5°C above the pre-industrial temperature.</p>
<p>At the beginning of this year, the world had <a href="https://nesp2climate.com.au/unmasking-our-carbon-and-climate-futures/">just 380 billion tonnes</a> of carbon dioxide left in the carbon budget. Global emissions have been about 40 billion tonnes a year over the past few years with no sign of decline. At that rate, we’ll hit 1.5°C in about nine years, and 2°C in 30 years.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/renewables-are-cheaper-than-ever-yet-fossil-fuel-use-is-still-growing-heres-why-213428">Renewables are cheaper than ever yet fossil fuel use is still growing – here’s why</a>
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<p>We are not moving fast enough, on enough fronts, to wean ourselves off fossil fuels.</p>
<p>For instance, even though the use of electric vehicles is growing fast, it’s off a low base. The world still has <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/used-car-exports-threaten-climate-goals/">an estimated</a> 1.4 billion internal combustion engine cars, which run on petrol, diesel or gas. </p>
<p>Emissions from all forms of transport are increasing. Fossil gas use is surging. Coal use was thought to have <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-21/international-energy-agency-says-coal-demand-peaked-in-2013/13001140">peaked in 2013</a>. But it’s back at even higher levels over the past two years, as nations scramble to shore up energy supplies due to the war in Ukraine.</p>
<p>Clean alternatives haven’t yet replaced fossil fuels at sufficient scale. It doesn’t matter how many solar panels are installed unless they also substitute the power that fossil fuels provide. And on a global scale, that’s not happening quickly enough to prevent us hitting 1.5°C. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550518/original/file-20230927-23-8ya7k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="solar farm Yunnan province china" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550518/original/file-20230927-23-8ya7k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550518/original/file-20230927-23-8ya7k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550518/original/file-20230927-23-8ya7k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550518/original/file-20230927-23-8ya7k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550518/original/file-20230927-23-8ya7k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550518/original/file-20230927-23-8ya7k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550518/original/file-20230927-23-8ya7k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">China’s renewable build is accelerating.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But the good news is we’re finally seeing something that seemed all but impossible just 10 years ago – nation after nation finally getting serious on climate change.</p>
<p>Renewables are so cheap they’re getting built because they make money – at the expense of old fossil fuel plants. Electric vehicles are here, and will make life better, from cutting running costs to radically improving air quality in our cities. Many nations will achieve energy independence.</p>
<p>We are making rapid progress in greening the electric grid, with China building <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/29/china-wind-solar-power-global-renewable-energy-leader">even more renewables</a> than its government targets. On the streets of Shanghai and Oslo, electric vehicles are a common sight. </p>
<p>These trends need to spread worldwide, and fast. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-just-blew-past-1-5-degrees-game-over-on-climate-not-yet-213364">We just blew past 1.5 degrees. Game over on climate? Not yet</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Economic sectors that produce large volumes of emissions, such as concrete and steel making, are difficult to decarbonise and will take longer. Likewise for the <a href="https://carbonmonitor.org/">aviation</a> and <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cc2672en/cc2672en.pdf">food system</a> sectors, where emissions keep rising.</p>
<p>Renewables, after all, are a means to an end. The goal is to rapidly reduce the use of fossil fuels, with any unavoidable emissions captured and permanently sequestered.</p>
<p>Until now, the very best we’ve done is to meet the growth in global demand for energy with non-fossil fuel sources – not to actually cut emissions. To actually slash emissions means transformational change. </p>
<h2>Why the positive forecast?</h2>
<p>Our best climate projections, the rate we’re using our remaining carbon budget, and current climate policies in place all consistently lead us to <a href="https://nesp2climate.com.au/unmasking-our-carbon-and-climate-futures/">temperatures well past 1.5°C</a> by the end of the century. </p>
<p>So why is the International Energy Agency still floating the possibility of stabilising the climate at 1.5°C? </p>
<p>If you <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/4d93d947-c78a-47a9-b223-603e6c3fc7d8/NetZeroRoadmap_AGlobalPathwaytoKeepthe1.5CGoalinReach-2023Update.pdf">read the report</a>, it becomes clear. Achieving net zero at this late stage will mean overshooting 1.5°C – and then using trees and negative emissions technologies at a very large scale to bring us back to that level. </p>
<p>This will take the creation of a whole new industry of atmospheric greenhouse gas removal and decades of effort.</p>
<p>So even as the world accelerates climate action, the claim that we can avoid climate change from reaching and passing 1.5°C is out of reach. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/global-carbon-emissions-at-record-levels-with-no-signs-of-shrinking-new-data-shows-humanity-has-a-monumental-task-ahead-193108">Global carbon emissions at record levels with no signs of shrinking, new data shows. Humanity has a monumental task ahead</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What does this mean?</h2>
<p>If humanity blows past the target of 1.5°C and keeps warming the planet, it doesn’t mean we just give up. Every decimal of a degree avoided matters a lot. </p>
<p>We’re only at 1.2°C now, and extreme weather, fire activity and other damage from climate change is coming thick and fast. </p>
<p>But there are clear risks in relying too much on the potential of removing large quantities of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere while also bringing down emissions as close to zero as possible. </p>
<p>Overshooting 1.5°C has another important implication. For years, climate action – cutting emissions – has been at the forefront of global efforts. But we have been too slow. Now we have to adapt to the rapidly evolving climate, with new policies, investment and preparedness.</p>
<p>This is not a story of unavoidable catastrophe. Climate scientists, on the whole, are optimists. All the work being done means we’re finally seeing positive change. But the numbers don’t lie. We must get those emissions down. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ev-sales-growth-points-to-oil-demand-peaking-by-2030-so-why-is-the-oil-industry-doubling-down-on-production-213637">EV sales growth points to oil demand peaking by 2030 − so why is the oil industry doubling down on production?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214463/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pep Canadell receives funding from the Australian National Environmental Science Program (NESP) Climate Systems Hub.</span></em></p>Holding climate change to 1.5 might be possible – but in the best case, we’ll blow past the limit first and then backpedal.Pep Canadell, Chief Research Scientist, Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere; Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2140922023-09-27T09:36:41Z2023-09-27T09:36:41ZPortuguese youths sue 33 European governments at EU court in largest climate case ever<p>A little over three years ago, a group of Portuguese youths filed a legal action against 33 European governments to the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) over what they say is a failure to adequately tackle global heating. Now, the Strasbourg court will be hearing them on 27 September, in a novel, far-fetching bid to arm-twist them into taking climate action.</p>
<p>The case represents the third time that a climate lawsuit is held at the ECHR. It is also momentous through the <a href="https://verfassungsblog.de/the-future-of-european-climate-change-litigation/">sheer number of governments on trial</a> and its plaintiffs’ ages, now ranging from 11 to 24. Among the accused are the EU’s 27 member states as well as the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Norway, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine.</p>
<h2>The claim</h2>
<p>Plaintiffs expressed their grave concern over governments’ <a href="https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/fre">insufficient efforts to limit global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels</a>. Were the rest of the world to mirror their commitments, the global temperature <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu/">would hike by 2 to 3°C</a>, according to Climate Tracker.</p>
<p>The youths argue that their way of life and health are threatened by the climate crisis’s impacts, including Portugal’s annual heat waves and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-50281-2">wildfires</a> which inspired them to crowdfund the legal action in October 2017.</p>
<h2>Human rights to the rescue of climate justice</h2>
<p>Against a global backdrop of increasing climate litigation, the <em>Duarte Agostinho</em> application follows in the steps of other climate lawsuits to draw a clear link between human rights violations and climate change. The first to have blazed that trail in 2015 was the <a href="https://climatecasechart.com/non-us-case/urgenda-foundation-v-kingdom-of-the-netherlands/">Urgenda Foundation</a>, whose legal action compelled the government to cut emissions by 25% from 1990 levels on the grounds of its applicants’ human rights.</p>
<p>With an eye to the latter, the group of Portuguese allege global heating has already taken a toll on their health and puts them at risk of suffering more significant health problems in future. They also claim to suffer from anxiety after <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-50281-2">wildfires in Portugal in 2017 killed more than 120 people</a>.</p>
<p>Governments, they argue, have failed to comply with their positive obligations under Article 2 of the <a href="https://www.echr.coe.int/documents/d/echr/convention_ENG">European Convention on Human Rights</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Everyone’s right to life shall be protected by law.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In addition, they assert governments did not comply with Article 8, the right to respect for one’s privacy and family life:</p>
<blockquote>
<ol>
<li>Everyone has the right to respect for his private and family life, his home and his correspondence. 2. There shall be no interference by a public authority with the exercise of this right except such as is in accordance with the
law and is necessary in a democratic society in the interests of
national security, public safety or the economic well-being of the
country, for the prevention of disorder or crime, for the protection
of health or morals, or for the protection of the rights and freedoms
of others.</li>
</ol>
</blockquote>
<p>The latter is often used by the court in other environmental cases to extend the scope of its protection to the victims’ homes and habitats, as well as to their surroundings. In the absence of a specific article on environmental protection, these articles are essential tools for protecting people against various forms of pollution and other nuisances.</p>
<p>The youths also argue that governments, in failing to take bold climate action, have breached Article 14, which guarantees the right not to suffer discrimination in the “enjoyment of the rights and freedoms set forth in this convention,” with the view that climate change impacts their generation in particular.</p>
<h2>Ushering in effective action</h2>
<p>Lawyers representing the youth will be seeking to avoid a repeat of some of the failures of the Urgenda case. While a landmark case, the Dutch Supreme Court had ruled at the time that the Dutch state would have to carry out the “absolute minimum” of its fair share of emission reductions.</p>
<p>To prevent this from happening again, young people will be banking on a range of principles from human rights, including that of effectiveness. According to this postulate, states cannot remain passive in the face of a violation of the rights of individuals. For the court, this principle originally offered a guarantee that states would implement the positive obligations of protection required by the convention.</p>
<p>Should this interpretation prevail in the Duarte case, the court’s decision would oblige each of the 33 states to demonstrate that they had done everything in their power not to violate the applicants’ human rights.</p>
<p>The court could also choose to interpret “effectiveness” as the “efficiency” of the measures put in place by governments to protect their citizens. In the <em>Duarte</em> case, this could mean that the court checks not only that states have legislation capable of protecting individuals’ rights, but that the laws in question weigh up against the climate crisis. This reading could precipitate a favourable outcome for claimants, requiring the states to show what specific measures they have taken to address climate change. The decision could serve as a model and exert a certain – moderate – influence on national decisions or on national human rights bodies (National Human Rights Commissions).</p>
<p>However, the court could also content itself with gauging effectiveness, which would consist in verifying that the states have the legislative tools to deal with climate change, without delving into the details of each national law. Such an approach would leave the states their own “margin” of appreciation so that they monitor their legal systems themselves.</p>
<p>Lawyers could also push for an interpretation of the convention based on the precautionary principle.</p>
<p>The latter orders parties to take action to prevent a provision from being violated, even in a context of uncertainty. In the Duarte case, the political authorities as well as the administrations, will have to identify, evaluate and take into consideration certain climate risks quoted by the young applicants.</p>
<h2>The European court’s climate challenge</h2>
<p>The case will undoubtedly constitute what lawyers refer to as a “hard case” – where judges need to balance equities and law – and will play an important role in other future climate applications.</p>
<p>The ECHR takes on average two years to reach a decision, though this period may vary depending on the complexity of the case. Because the ruling is set to be issued by the Grand Chamber, there will no possibility of appealing against it.<br>
The question of its impact on the continent’s climate justice also remains to be seen. It will not, for example, have the power to annul or modify decisions taken by national courts. However, it could sharpen states’ resolve in climate and human rights’ matters. For instance, France has in the past been constrained to <a href="https://www.vie-publique.fr/fiches/38297-arrets-de-la-cedh-quelles-consequences-sur-la-justice-francaise">change its laws on phone tapping and police custody conditions</a> following rulings by the ECHR.</p>
<p>Ultimately, the ECHR’s verdict will show whether it is fit to hold states to account over their obligation to protect against a global threat. As the century progresses, the court will inevitably have to evolve and give a “greener” interpretation of the convention. Its ability to protect fundamental rights in a world on the verge of exhaustion depends on it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214092/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marta Torre-Schaub ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>In a momentous case, young EU citizens will seek to draw among a range of principles from human rights, such as that of effectiveness, to arm-twist governments into impactful climate action.Marta Torre-Schaub, Directrice de recherche CNRS, juriste, spécialiste du changement climatique et du droit de l’environnement et la santé, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-SorbonneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2124622023-09-22T00:47:18Z2023-09-22T00:47:18ZCarbon removal: why ambitious ‘no nonsense’ plans are vital to limit global heating to 2°C<p>2023 is proving to be a year of climate and weather extremes. Record-busting <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/summer-2023-hottest-record">global air and ocean temperatures</a>, unprecedented <a href="https://theconversation.com/devastatingly-low-antarctic-sea-ice-may-be-the-new-abnormal-study-warns-212376">low levels of Antarctic sea ice</a>, and devastating <a href="https://apnews.com/article/photography-wildfires-climate-fire-greece-hawaii-spain-canada-22266a7cc68dd98c8753a8fe8b72c109">fires</a> and <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/ten-countries-territories-saw-severe-003606452.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAKeR6ATk1c6Z6l668WsxKzUzLhqD2KEEK-c8XWVq0CttFZETnIG-H4XgGzycJmtWLtrHPH0bKGGV7vQuknlT7HqAKktEFyU6fhMhpK1JfGYJlmvI5i7H3bjRaiLOefRqpW6wLpH1KHx23nG-49XnoxEjd40ItUGcCkJ9OmKMi_ej">floods</a> have been reported across the world. </p>
<p>Less discussed by the world media is the continuing rise in atmospheric greenhouse gases driving these changes. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/broken-record-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide-levels-jump-again">at a level</a> not seen since the hothouse world of the <a href="https://mashable.com/article/carbon-dioxide-earth-co2">Pliocene</a>, 3 million years ago. On top of that, an <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/">El Niño event is now likely</a>, so widespread extreme events may <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/17/el-nino-ciimate-change-extreme-weather">intensify in coming months</a>. </p>
<p>Despite the changes we are seeing, global efforts to cut emissions <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-what-credible-climate-pledges-mean-for-future-global-warming/">fall well short</a> of what’s needed to keep heating to less than 2°C, let alone the more ambitious Paris Agreement target of 1.5°C. This creates an urgent need for the purposeful removal of atmospheric CO₂ as well as cuts in emissions.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02649-8">recent article in Nature</a>, we argue for a different approach to pricing carbon. It should take into account how it is removed from the atmosphere, for how long, and with what confidence. This will help fund the most promising technologies for reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/devastatingly-low-antarctic-sea-ice-may-be-the-new-abnormal-study-warns-212376">Devastatingly low Antarctic sea ice may be the ‘new abnormal', study warns</a>
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<h2>Carbon removal is on the agenda</h2>
<p>The United Nations hosted a “no-nonsense” <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/climate-ambition-summit">Climate Ambition Summit</a> in New York this week with the aim of accelerating the global transition away from carbon. This must be done to avoid breaching 2°C of global heating relative to the pre-industrial era. </p>
<p>Two strategies are being pursued: </p>
<ol>
<li>carbon emission reductions</li>
<li>carbon dioxide removal (CDR), also called “negative emissions”.</li>
</ol>
<p>At <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/cop26">COP26</a> in 2021, global resolutions on cutting emissions drove the push for “<a href="https://theconversation.com/net-zero-carbon-neutral-carbon-negative-confused-by-all-the-carbon-jargon-then-read-this-151382">net zero</a>” across nations, cities and sectors. However, some worldwide activities, including aviation and heavy industry, face challenges eliminating emissions. Carbon credits have become the main way to offset their remaining emissions.</p>
<p>The dilemma lies in the nature of carbon credits. Most are allocated for so-called “avoidance” measures. A prime example is not clearing forest, which has come <a href="https://theconversation.com/worthless-forest-carbon-offsets-risk-exacerbating-climate-change-211862">under intense scrutiny</a>. </p>
<p>And these measures do nothing about the existing excess carbon dioxide. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/worthless-forest-carbon-offsets-risk-exacerbating-climate-change-211862">'Worthless' forest carbon offsets risk exacerbating climate change</a>
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<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1704156181256679842"}"></div></p>
<p>A big change in our thinking is needed. The emphasis must shift from emission “avoidance” to “removal” offsets that actively pull carbon from the atmosphere. So how do we tackle the monumental challenge of reducing atmospheric CO₂? </p>
<p>What’s needed is a shift from avoidance to verifiable <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/outreach/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Factsheet_CDR.pdf">carbon dioxide removal</a>. Almost all current removal efforts come from traditional land management. Less than 1% comes from innovative removal technologies. </p>
<p>Removal technologies include:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://drawdown.org/solutions/biochar-production">biochar</a> – where carbon from plant material is sequestered as charcoal and stored in soil</li>
<li><a href="https://www.iea.org/energy-system/carbon-capture-utilisation-and-storage/direct-air-capture">direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS)</a> – which directly removes CO₂ from the air and stores it in geological formations.</li>
</ul>
<p>A major advance at COP26 was to work out the projected demand and market trajectory for carbon offsets. Offset credits play a vital role in advancing CO₂ removal technologies and developing carbon markets. </p>
<p>Another key goal was to formulate a carbon trading rulebook. The resulting <a href="https://www.iif.com/tsvcm">Taskforce on Scaling Voluntary Carbon Markets</a> predicts demand for carbon offsets will grow tenfold by 2030 and 50-fold by 2050.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/stripping-carbon-from-the-atmosphere-might-be-needed-to-avoid-dangerous-warming-but-it-remains-a-deeply-uncertain-prospect-195097">Stripping carbon from the atmosphere might be needed to avoid dangerous warming – but it remains a deeply uncertain prospect</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>So what are the obstacles?</h2>
<p>We identify a potential bottleneck. Developing, testing and scaling up CO₂ removal technologies takes time. This means a lag in supply could stymie the rapidly growing demand for carbon dioxide removal. </p>
<p>Another problem is that the current carbon offset market offers a flat rate, no matter the quality or effectiveness of the CO₂ removal method. There is an urgent need for a tiered market that values high-quality, proven CO₂ removal methods. This will provide an incentive to fast-track their use.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://unfccc.int/about-us/regional-collaboration-centres/the-ciaca/about-carbon-pricing#What-does-the-Paris-Agreement-say-on-carbon-pricin">carbon offset market’s pricing mechanism</a> is a stumbling block. The price for offsetting a tonne of CO₂ is in the range US$10–100. Cheaper avoidance strategies, such as not clearing forests, heavily influence this price. </p>
<p>The existing pricing falls short when we consider the costs of CO₂ removal technologies, which can exceed US$200 per tonne removed.</p>
<p>The prevailing metric, simplifying everything to “one tonne of carbon”, doesn’t consider the complexities of CO₂ removal. Each method has its own specifics about how long it can store carbon, how reliably it can be verified and the potential risks or side effects. Shoehorning such a varied field into a single metric stifles innovation in CO₂ removal.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1704521540157448678"}"></div></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/net-zero-by-2050-too-late-australia-must-aim-for-2035-213973">Net zero by 2050? Too late. Australia must aim for 2035</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What are the solutions?</h2>
<p>Understanding the market’s resistance to intricate metrics, we propose a more nuanced yet approachable two-step solution:</p>
<ol>
<li><p><strong>Shift in metrics</strong>: change the standard from a “carbon tonne” to a “carbon tonne year”. This recognises the longevity of CO₂ removal methods and rewards those that store carbon longer. Such a metric connects directly with efforts to cut emissions.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>A mandatory warranty</strong>: each “carbon tonne year” requires a warranty from the seller to vouch for the method’s reliability (verification) and its overall safety (assessing risks and side effects).</p></li>
</ol>
<p>These changes will foster a system that appropriately values CO₂ removal methods that are long-lasting, reliable and safe. It creates an incentive to develop and use these methods.</p>
<p>In our Nature article, we advocate a structured ten-year plan. This timeframe is crucial for maturing the markets, establishing effective regulatory frameworks and fine-tuning verification. </p>
<p>It’s essential to prepare for the evolution and scaling up of carbon dioxide removal. A decade provides a realistic window to develop the processes needed to reach net zero.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/net-zero-carbon-neutral-carbon-negative-confused-by-all-the-carbon-jargon-then-read-this-151382">Net-zero, carbon-neutral, carbon-negative ... confused by all the carbon jargon? Then read this</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The magnitude of this task cannot be overstated. In just a few decades, <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">CO₂ removal must operate on a colossal scale</a>, comparable to global food production.</p>
<p>The New York summit has set the stage for the <a href="https://www.cop28.com/">COP28 meeting in Dubai</a> later this year. An ambitious long-term global strategy can still provide a sustainable future within the heating limits set in the 2015 Paris Agreement. </p>
<p>It’s time to get real about carbon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212462/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Turney receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is a scientific adviser and holds shares in cleantech biographite company, CarbonScape (<a href="https://www.carbonscape.com">https://www.carbonscape.com</a>). Chris is affiliated with the virtual Climate Recovery Institute (<a href="https://climaterecoveryinstitute.com.au">https://climaterecoveryinstitute.com.au</a>).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lennart Bach receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Carbon to Sea Initiative. He is a scientific adviser of Submarine (<a href="https://www.submarine.earth/">https://www.submarine.earth/</a>), which develops tools for monitoring, reporting and verification of marine CO₂ removal. Lennart is affiliated with the virtual Climate Recovery Institute (<a href="https://climaterecoveryinstitute.com.au">https://climaterecoveryinstitute.com.au</a>).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Boyd receives funding from the Australian Research Council and he is affiliated with the virtual Climate Recovery Institute. </span></em></p>Global efforts to cut emissions fall well short of what’s needed to avoid dangerous warming. It’s becoming essential to develop carbon-removal strategies to get to net zero.Christian Turney, Pro Vice-Chancellor of Research, University of Technology SydneyLennart Bach, Associate Professor, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of TasmaniaPhilip Boyd, Professor of Marine Science, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2136372023-09-19T12:18:28Z2023-09-19T12:18:28ZEV sales growth points to oil demand peaking by 2030 − so why is the oil industry doubling down on production?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548827/original/file-20230918-15-rp390m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C6%2C4399%2C3377&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tesla brought EVs into the mainstream.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/march-2022-brandenburg-gr%C3%BCnheide-several-model-y-electric-news-photo/1239416892">Patrick Pleul/picture alliance via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Electric vehicle sales are growing faster than expected around the world, and sales of gas- and diesel-powered vehicles have been falling. Yet, the U.S. government still forecasts an increasing demand for oil, and the oil industry is doubling down on production plans.</p>
<p>Why is that, and what happens if the U.S. projections for growing oil demand are wrong?</p>
<p>I <a href="https://scholar.google.de/citations?user=kc0ETzIAAAAJ&hl=en">study sustainability</a> and global <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-31734-1">energy system transformations</a>. Let’s take a closer look at the changes underway.</p>
<h2>EVs’ giant leap forward</h2>
<p>On Sept. 12, 2023, Fatih Birol, director of the <a href="https://www.iea.org/">International Energy Agency</a>, an intergovernmental organization that advises the world’s major economies, drew global attention when he wrote in the Financial Times that the IEA is now <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f6155d7b-2ef7-4f62-a08a-b640b7e87fca">projecting a global peak</a> in demand for oil, gas and coal by 2030.</p>
<p>The new date was a significant leap forward in time compared with previous estimates that the <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/growth-in-global-oil-demand-is-set-to-slow-significantly-by-2028">peak would not be until the 2030s</a> for oil and even later for gas. It also stood out because the IEA has typically been quite conservative in modeling changes to the global energy system.</p>
<p>Birol pointed to <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022/executive-summary">changes in energy policies</a> and a faster-than-expected rise in clean technologies – including electric vehicles – along with <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-war-in-ukraine-hasnt-left-europe-freezing-in-the-dark-but-it-has-caused-energy-crises-in-unexpected-places-199046">Europe’s shift away from fossil fuels</a> amid Russia’s war in Ukraine as the primary reasons. He wrote that the IEA’s upcoming World Energy Outlook “shows the world is on the cusp of a historic turning point.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People stand near dozens of electric vehicle models in the BYD booth during the 2023 Shenyang International Auto Show." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548825/original/file-20230918-31-8n41ta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548825/original/file-20230918-31-8n41ta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548825/original/file-20230918-31-8n41ta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548825/original/file-20230918-31-8n41ta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548825/original/file-20230918-31-8n41ta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548825/original/file-20230918-31-8n41ta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548825/original/file-20230918-31-8n41ta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">EV sales have been growing quickly, particularly in China. China’s BYD produces several of the top-selling models globally.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-visit-the-byd-booth-during-the-2023-shenyang-news-photo/1487511212">VCG/VCG via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The United Nations also released its “<a href="https://unfccc.int/documents/631600">global stocktake</a>” report in early September, assessing the world’s progress toward meeting the Paris climate agreement goals of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) compared with preindustrial temperatures. The report found <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/explaining-global-stocktake-paris-agreement">serious gaps</a> in efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/2019/insights-from-the-ipcc-special-report-on-15c-for-the-preparation-of-long-term-strategies/">to net-zero by soon after mid-century</a>. However, it noted two bright spots: The world is more or less on track in the growth in <a href="https://www.pv-tech.org/global-solar-pv-manufacturing-capacity-could-meet-deployment-needs-in-2030-iea/">solar photovoltaics</a> for renewable energy – and in the <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023">growth of electric vehicles</a>.</p>
<p>The dynamics of EV expansion are important because each vehicle that uses electricity instead of gasoline or diesel fuel will depress demand for oil. Even though demand for petroleum products in other sectors, like aviation and petrochemicals, is still increasing, the IEA expects a decline in road transportation’s 50% share of oil consumption to drive an <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/growth-in-global-oil-demand-is-set-to-slow-significantly-by-2028">overall peak in demand within a few years</a>.</p>
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<p>EVs are now on pace to dominate global car sales by 2030, with fast growth in China in particular, according to analysts at the <a href="https://rmi.org/">Rocky Mountain Institute</a>. If countries continue to upgrade their electricity and charging infrastructure, “the endgame for one quarter of global oil demand will be in sight,” they wrote in a <a href="https://rmi.org/insight/x-change-cars/">new report</a>. As electric trucks become more common, oil demand will likely drop even faster, the analysts wrote.</p>
<p>Global sales of light-duty vehicles already show a <a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2023/03/09/the-global-ice-industry-cliff-is-here/">decrease in internal combustion – gasoline and diesel – vehicle sales</a>, mainly due to increasing EV sales, but also due to an <a href="https://www.marklines.com/en/report/global_report_202212">overall decline in vehicle sales</a> that started even before the pandemic.</p>
<h2>So, why is the US projecting oil demand growth?</h2>
<p>Based on the data, it appears that global oil demand will peak relatively soon. Yet, major oil companies say they plan to increase their production, and the U.S. <a href="https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/narrative/consumption/sub-topic-01.php">Energy Information Administration</a> <a href="https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/narrative/consumption/sub-topic-01.php">still projects that global demand</a> for oil and fossil fuels will continue to grow.</p>
<p><a href="https://tedb.ornl.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/TEDB_Ed_40.pdf">Vehicles do last longer today</a> than they did a couple of decades ago, and they are also larger, <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1237-may-9-2022-fuel-economy-all-vehicle-classes-has-improved">slowing down efficiency gains</a>. But the Energy Information Administration appears to be <a href="https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/#/?">lowballing projections for EV growth</a>.</p>
<p>The Biden administration, which pushed through large U.S. tax incentives for EV purchases, has taken steps to clear the way for <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3986678-biden-fossil-fuels-drawing-heat/">increasing some oil and natural gas exploration</a>. And <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/08/24/fossil-fuel-subsidies-surged-to-record-7-trillion">large government subsidies continue flowing</a> to fossil fuel industries in many countries. These contradictions <a href="https://priceofoil.org/2023/09/06/revealed-taxpayer-funded-fossil-fuel-projects-from-the-u-s-germany-and-italy-breach-international-climate-commitments/">undermine the goals of the Paris Agreement</a> and could lead to costly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01356-y">stranded assets</a>.</p>
<h2>What do these trends mean for the oil industry?</h2>
<p>It’s fair to assume that large industries should have a good handle on future developments expected to affect their fields. But they often have a competing priority to ensure that short-term gains are preserved.</p>
<p><a href="https://us.boell.org/sites/default/files/franke_energytransition.pdf">Electric utilities</a> are an example. Most didn’t feel threatened by renewable electricity until penetration expanded quickly in their territories. In response, some have <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/420844-why-utilities-are-making-a-necessary-foray-into-renewables/">lobbied to hold off further progress</a> and invented spurious reasons <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2023/05/25/texas-energy-renewables-natural-gas-grid-politics/">to favor fossil fuels over renewables</a>. </p>
<p>Of course, some companies have <a href="https://www.nexteraenergy.com/sustainability/environment/renewable-energy.html">changed their business models</a> to <a href="https://us.orsted.com/">embrace the renewable energy transition</a>, but these seem to still be in a minority.</p>
<p>Large corporations such as BP and TotalEnergies <a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/market-sectors/energy/best-oil-companies-investing-in-renewable-energy/">invest in renewables</a>, but these investments are often offset by equally large <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/shell-bp-boost-profit-sink-investment-in-renewable-energy/a-64656800">investments in new fossil fuel exploration</a>.</p>
<p>Both <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/06/14/1182102392/shell-plans-to-increase-fossil-fuel-production-despite-its-net-zero-pledge">Shell</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/02/07/bp-climate-emissions-oil-profits/">BP</a> recently backpedaled on their previous climate commitments in spite of <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-shell-admits-1-5c-climate-goal-means-immediate-end-to-fossil-fuel-growth/">tacit admissions</a> that increasing oil production is inconsistent with climate change mitigation. Exxon’s CEO said in June 2023 that his company aimed to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exxon-ceo-says-5-year-program-could-double-its-shale-output-2023-06-01/">double its U.S. shale oil production</a> over the next five years.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Bernard Looney, in a suit, stands at a podium with the word 'Reimagine BP' on the front." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548656/original/file-20230916-29-ftcie1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548656/original/file-20230916-29-ftcie1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548656/original/file-20230916-29-ftcie1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548656/original/file-20230916-29-ftcie1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548656/original/file-20230916-29-ftcie1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548656/original/file-20230916-29-ftcie1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548656/original/file-20230916-29-ftcie1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2020, then-BP CEO Bernard Looney declared that the oil company would achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. In 2023, after record profits, BP announced it would increase fossil fuel production investment by about $1 billion a year for the rest of the decade.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/bernard-looney-speaks-during-an-event-in-london-on-february-news-photo/1200295678">Daniel Leal/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>What is happening in the fossil fuel industry seems to be an example of the so-called “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Green_Paradox">green paradox</a>,” in which it is rational, from a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hotelling%27s_rule">profit-maximization point of view</a>, to extract these resources as quickly as possible when faced with the threat of future decreased market value. </p>
<p>That is, if a company can see that in the future its product will make less money or be threatened by environmental policies, it would be likely to sell as much as possible now. As part of that process, it may be very willing to encourage the building of fossil fuel infrastructure that clearly won’t be viable a decade or two in the future, creating what are known as <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-really-owns-the-oil-industrys-future-stranded-assets-if-you-own-investment-funds-or-expect-a-pension-it-might-be-you-183706">stranded assets</a>.</p>
<p>In the long run, countries encouraged to borrow to make these investments may be stuck with the bill, in addition to the global climate change impacts that will result.</p>
<p>Extractive industries have <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abk0063">known about climate change</a> for decades. But rather than transform themselves into broad-based energy companies, most have doubled down on oil, coal and natural gas. More than <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548683/original/file-20230917-15-qdehk8.png">two dozen U.S. cities, counties and states</a> are now suing fossil fuel companies over the harms caused by climate change and accusing them of misleading the public, with <a href="https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/FINAL-9-15-COMPLAINT.pdf">California filing the latest lawsuit</a> on Sept. 15, 2023. </p>
<p>The question is whether these companies will be able to successfully adapt to a renewable energy world, or whether they will follow the <a href="https://rhg.com/research/the-hidden-cause-of-americas-coal-collapse/">path of U.S. coal companies</a> and not recognize their own decline until it is too late.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213637/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Brecha is also affiliated with Climate Analytics, a global non-profit climate science and policy institute. Opinions and ideas expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of the University of Dayton or Climate Analytics. </span></em></p>The International Energy Agency moved up the date when it expects oil demand to peak to before 2030. Electric vehicle growth is a big part of the reason.Robert Brecha, Professor of Sustainability, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2066772023-09-18T11:30:06Z2023-09-18T11:30:06ZWell behind at halftime: here’s how to get the UN Sustainable Development Goals back on track<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548712/original/file-20230918-17-6icb2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=21%2C3%2C1176%2C794&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://dam.media.un.org/CS.aspx?VP3=DamView&VBID=2AM94SCXBEN&FR_=1&W=1333&H=1245#/DamView&VBID=2AM94S66DGUNP&PN=1&WS=SearchResults">United Nations</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>This week <a href="https://www.un.org/en/conferences/SDGSummit2023">world leaders are gathering</a> at the United Nations (UN) headquarters in New York to review progress against the Sustainable Development Goals. We’re halfway between when the goals were set in 2015 and when they need to be met in 2030.</p>
<p>As authors of a <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/gsdr/gsdr2023">global UN report</a> on the goals, we have a message to share. Currently, the world is not on track to achieve any of the 17 goals. </p>
<p>There is much at stake. Failing to achieve the goals would mean <a href="https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2023/">by the end of the decade</a>, 600 million people will be living in extreme poverty. More than 80 million children and young people will not be in school. Humanity will overshoot the Paris climate agreement’s 1.5°C “safe” guardrail on average global temperature rise. And, at the current rate, <a href="https://www.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2022/09/progress-on-the-sustainable-development-goals-the-gender-snapshot-2022">it will take 300 years</a> to attain gender equality.</p>
<p>But there is hope. With decisive action, we can shift the dial towards a fairer, more sustainable and prosperous world by 2030. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-modelled-4-scenarios-for-australias-future-economic-growth-alone-cant-deliver-the-goods-126823">We modelled 4 scenarios for Australia's future. Economic growth alone can't deliver the goods</a>
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<h2>What does the research say?</h2>
<p>The set of <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/goals">17 universal goals</a> agreed in 2015 to aim to end poverty, improve health and education, and reduce inequality – while tackling climate change and preserving our oceans and forests. Each of the goals are broken down into targets. </p>
<p>Every four years, the UN Secretary-General appoints an independent group of 15 international scientists to assess progress against these goals and recommend how to move forwards. We were among the authors of the latest <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/gsdr/gsdr2023">Global Sustainable Development Report</a> published late last week.</p>
<p>To provide a snapshot of progress, we reviewed 36 targets. We found only two were on track (on access to mobile networks and internet usage) and 14 showed fair progress. Twelve showed limited or no progress – including around poverty, safe drinking water and ecosystem conservation. </p>
<p>Worryingly, eight targets were assessed as still going backwards. These included reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and fossil fuel subsidies, preventing species extinction and ensuring sustainable fish stocks.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/nk8qwnIf6Ds?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Hear from some of the scientists behind the Global Sustainable Development Report 2023.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>What is holding us back?</h2>
<p>Recent studies have identified feasible and cost-effective <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01098-3">global</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0409-9">national</a> pathways to accelerate progress on the goals. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, in many developing countries, insufficient financial resources and weak governance hinder progress. In other cases, existing investments in fossil fuels have generated strong resistance from powerful vested interests. Achieving some goals, such as responsible consumption and production, will also require big, unpopular changes in habits and lifestyles, which are very ingrained.</p>
<p>To accelerate progress on the goals, targets must be fully integrated by government and business at all levels into core decision making, budgeting and planning processes. We need to identify and prioritise those areas that lag furthest behind. To be effective, we also need to uncover and address the root causes of inadequate outcomes, which lie in our institutions and governance systems.</p>
<p>Accountability also remains weak. The goals are not legally binding and even though countries have expressed their support, this has often failed to translate into policy and investments. In practice, the targets are often “painted on” to existing strategies without redesigning norms and structures to deliver improved outcomes.</p>
<p>If the world is to accelerate progress on the goals, governments need to play a more active part, by setting targets, stimulating innovation, shaping markets, and regulating business. </p>
<p>We call on policymakers to develop tailored action plans to accelerate progress on the goals in the remaining years to 2030, including measures to improve accountability. </p>
<p>Scientists have a major role to play too. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02808-x#:%7E:text=It's%20crucial%20that%20scientists%20support,transformation%20pathways%3B%20and%20improving%20governance.">As we argued in Nature</a>, scientists can help us redesign institutions, systems and practices. By studying ways to strengthen governance and build momentum for tough but transformative reforms, research can overcome resistance to change, and manage negative side-effects. </p>
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<h2>What does it mean for Australia?</h2>
<p>Australia tends to perform poorly on the goals when compared to our peers in the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), <a href="https://dashboards.sdgindex.org/rankings">ranking 40th in the world in 2023</a>. Our best-performing goals include health and education, while <a href="https://www.sdgtransformingaustralia.com/">progress lags</a> on environmental goals, economic inequality and cost-of-living pressures. </p>
<p>While some <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/environment/protection/waste/publications/national-food-waste-strategy">environment agencies</a>, <a href="https://acsi.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/1ACSI-ESG-Reporting-Trends-in-the-ASX200-JUN22-.pdf">businesses</a> and <a href="https://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/SiteCollectionDocuments/un-sustainable-goals-voluntary-local-review.pdf">local groups</a> have embraced the goals, Australia’s poor performance is symptomatic of limited traction and commitment at the centre of government. </p>
<p>Here, the goals are often seen as an international development issue rather than central to domestic <a href="https://dashboards.sdgindex.org/profiles/australia/policy-efforts">policy efforts</a>. We lack a high-level statement or any strategy or action plan for the goals. There is no lead unit or coordination mechanism in place and no reference to the goals in the federal budget. One promising development, <a href="https://www.sdgdata.gov.au/">a national Sustainable Development Goal monitoring portal</a>, hasn’t been updated in five years. </p>
<p>The best performing countries have taken concrete steps to mainstream the targets and ensure accountability:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2022/734766/IPOL_IDA(2022)734766_EN.pdf">Denmark</a> requires new government bills to be screened and assessed for their impacts on the goals </p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://stm.fi/en/-/action-plan-to-integrate-the-economy-of-wellbeing-into-decision-making-and-sustainability-assessment">Finland</a> has taken steps to place sustainable development and people’s wellbeing at the heart of policy and decision making. A sustainable development commission, annual citizens’ panel on sustainable development and national audits provide <a href="https://www.environmental-auditing.org/media/auzf4emi/wgea-wp5_sustainabledevelopementgoals_2022.pdf">increased accountability</a> </p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.futuregenerations.wales/about-us/future-generations-act/">Wales</a> requires public bodies to use sustainable development as a guiding principle reflecting the values and aspirations of the Welsh people.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Australia’s first <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-07/measuring-what-matters-statement020230721_0.pdf">wellbeing framework</a> is an important step forward. The framework of 50 indicators has considerable overlap with the goals, despite notable exceptions such as the lack of a poverty indicator or any specific targets or benchmarks. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-first-wellbeing-framework-is-about-to-measure-what-matters-but-its-harder-than-counting-gdp-209868">Australia's first wellbeing framework is about to measure what matters – but it's harder than counting GDP</a>
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<h2>Start lifting our game</h2>
<p>As we’ve learned through our own research, little will change if such promising initiatives remain box-ticking exercises that fail to reorient our societies and economies towards sustainable development. </p>
<p>To achieve real change, indicator frameworks need to be translated into timebound targets that clearly set the agreed direction and level of ambition. These targets must be embedded in the core decision-making processes of government and business.</p>
<p>Remember the goals are not a set of technical targets and indicators. They are the outcomes each of us want for our society and the world we live in. </p>
<p>While we are behind at halftime, the game is not over. It is up to us to lift our performance and turn the score around. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-threatens-the-rights-of-children-the-un-just-outlined-the-obligations-states-have-to-protect-them-209587">Climate change threatens the rights of children. The UN just outlined the obligations states have to protect them</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206677/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cameron Allen receives funding from the Australian Government. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shirin Malekpour receives funding from the Australian Government.</span></em></p>Our research shows the world is not on track to achieve any of the Sustainable Development Goals. But with decisive action, we can still achieve a fairer, more sustainable and prosperous future.Cameron Allen, Research Fellow, Monash UniversityShirin Malekpour, Associate Professor in Sustainable Development Governance, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2136492023-09-15T05:24:10Z2023-09-15T05:24:10ZWe are poised to pass 1.5°C of global warming – world leaders offer 4 ways to manage this dangerous time<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548474/original/file-20230915-19-ddk85m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=72%2C18%2C3977%2C3017&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/pasadena-california-usa-12-1-2022-2245301895">Marcus E Jones, Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For three decades, the goal of international climate negotiations has been to avoid “dangerous” warming above 1.5°C. With warming to date standing at around 1.2°C, we haven’t quite reached the zone we labelled dangerous and pledged to avoid.</p>
<p>But recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-warming-to-bring-record-hot-year-by-2028-probably-our-first-above-1-5-c-limit-205758">scientific assessments</a> suggest we’re on the brink of passing that milestone. Within this decade, global annual temperatures will likely exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average <a href="https://library.wmo.int/records/item/66224-wmo-global-annual-to-decadal-climate-update">for at least one year</a>. This threshold was already briefly passed for the <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-just-blew-past-1-5-degrees-game-over-on-climate-not-yet-213364">month of July 2023</a> during the Northern summer.</p>
<p>The question is, how do we manage this period of “overshoot” and bring temperatures back down? The goal will be to restore a more habitable climate, as fast as possible.</p>
<p>Today an independent group of global leaders released a major report. The <a href="https://www.overshootcommission.org/">Climate Overshoot Commission</a> offers guidance at this crucial time. So far the report’s call for an immediate moratorium on “solar radiation management” (deflecting the sun’s rays to reduce warming) has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/14/experts-call-for-global-moratorium-on-efforts-to-geoengineer-climate">attracted the most attention</a>. But the details of other recommendations deserve closer inspection.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Introducing the Climate Overshoot Commission (2022)</span></figcaption>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-just-blew-past-1-5-degrees-game-over-on-climate-not-yet-213364">We just blew past 1.5 degrees. Game over on climate? Not yet</a>
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<h2>How can we respond to climate overshoot?</h2>
<p>Historically, climate policies have focused on mitigation (reducing greenhouse gas emissions). More recently, adaptation has gained prominence. </p>
<p>But the climate overshoot report identifies at least four different kinds of responses to warming above 1.5°C: </p>
<ol>
<li><p>cut emissions to mitigate warming </p></li>
<li><p>adapt to the changing climate </p></li>
<li><p>remove carbon that is already in the atmosphere or ocean</p></li>
<li><p>explore intervening to limit warming by intentionally reflecting a fraction of sunlight into space. </p></li>
</ol>
<p>The commission’s task was to examine how all possible responses might best be combined. Their report was written by <a href="https://www.overshootcommission.org/commission1">12 global leaders</a> – including former presidents of Niger, Kiribati and Mexico – who worked alongside a <a href="https://www.overshootcommission.org/yeg">youth panel</a> and a team of <a href="https://www.overshootcommission.org/scienceadvisors">scientific advisers</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-1-5-global-warming-limit-is-not-impossible-but-without-political-action-it-soon-will-be-159297">The 1.5℃ global warming limit is not impossible – but without political action it soon will be</a>
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<h2>The four-step plan to reining in warming</h2>
<p>Not surprisingly, the commission argues our central task is mitigation. Transitioning away from fossil fuels remains the first priority. </p>
<p>But reaching net zero emissions is just the first step. The commission argues developed countries like Australia should go further and aim for net-negative emissions. </p>
<p>Why net-negative? In the short term, drawing down carbon can create space for the least industrialised countries to fight poverty while transitioning to clean energy. In the longer term, the whole global economy must achieve net-negative emissions if the planet is to return to our current “safe” climatic zone. </p>
<p>The second step is adaptation. Only a few decades ago former United States Vice President Al Gore branded adapting to climate change a “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09644016.2022.2113606?journalCode=fenp20">lazy cop-out</a>”. Today we have no choice but to adapt to changing conditions. </p>
<p>However, adaptation is expensive – whether it is developing new crop varieties or rebuilding coastal infrastructure. Since the poorest communities who are most vulnerable to climate harms have the least capacity to adapt, the commission recommends international assistance for locally controlled, context-specific strategies.</p>
<p>As a third step, the commission agrees with <a href="https://theconversation.com/on-top-of-drastic-emissions-cuts-ipcc-finds-large-scale-co-removal-from-air-will-be-essential-to-meeting-targets-180663">scientific assessments</a> that carbon dioxide “will need to be removed from the air on a significant scale and stored securely” if we are to avoid permanent overshoot beyond 1.5°C warming. But how to achieve large-scale permanent, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1162/glep_a_00643">carbon removal</a>?</p>
<p>Some environmental activists support <a href="https://theconversation.com/stripping-carbon-from-the-atmosphere-might-be-needed-to-avoid-dangerous-warming-but-it-remains-a-deeply-uncertain-prospect-195097">natural solutions</a> such as planting trees but oppose industrial methods that seek to store carbon in inorganic form such as carbon capture and storage underground. The commission agrees the organic/inorganic distinction is important. However, it points out while forests bring many benefits, carbon stored in ecosystems is often re-released – for example, in forest fires. </p>
<p>The commission worries many carbon removal approaches are phoney, impermanent or have adverse social and environmental impacts. However, instead of ruling out technologies on ideological grounds, it recommends research and regulation to ensure only socially beneficial and high-integrity forms of carbon removal are scaled up.</p>
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<p>The fourth step – “solar radiation management” – refers to techniques that aim to reduce climate harms caused by reflecting some of the Sun’s energy into space. No-one likes the idea of solar radiation management. But no-one likes getting vaccinated either – our gut reactions don’t provide a fool-proof guide to whether an intervention is a worth considering. </p>
<p>Should we trust our guts on this one? While climate models suggest <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2020/05/WGI_AR5_FAQ_EN.pdf">solar radiation management</a> could reduce climate harms, we don’t yet properly understand associated risks. </p>
<p>The commission approaches this topic with caution. On the one hand, it recommends an immediate “moratorium on the deployment of solar radiation modification and large-scale outdoor experiments” and rejects the idea that deployment is now inevitable. On the other hand, it recommends increased support for research, international dialogue on governance, and periodic global scientific reviews.</p>
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<h2>Time to examine intervention in the climate system?</h2>
<p>The idea we can avoid dangerous warming completely seems increasingly quaint. Like baggy jeans, the boy band NSYNC and the iPod shuffle, it reminds us of a more innocent era. Yet, Australia’s climate debate often seems stuck in this era. </p>
<p>The widespread hope we “still have time” means we are not yet discussing the merits of more interventionist responses to the climate crisis. However, there’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/coral-reefs-how-climate-change-threatens-the-hidden-diversity-of-marine-ecosystems-211007">increasing reason</a> to be sceptical incremental measures will be sufficient. We may soon be forced to move beyond the non-interventionist, conservation paradigm.</p>
<p>Whether or not its recommendations are taken up, the Climate Overshoot Commission’s work shows how the international community has failed to avert dangerous climate change. Reckoning with the consequences of this failure will dominate public policy for decades to come. This new report takes us a step forward.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213649/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Symons sits on the advisory board for RePlanet NGO and is a member of The Australian Institute of International Affairs (NSW) Council.</span></em></p>A new report explores options for managing the period after global warming exceeds 1.5°C. This is called ‘climate overshoot’, because we’re pushing past the safe zone into dangerous climate change.Jonathan Symons, Senior Lecturer, Macquarie School of Social Sciences, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2130662023-09-14T20:05:32Z2023-09-14T20:05:32ZTim Flannery’s message to all: rise up and become a climate leader – be the change we need so desperately<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548177/original/file-20230913-48731-y1vy63.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C8%2C2858%2C1586&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Totem Films</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As humanity hurtles towards a climate catastrophe, the debate has shifted – from the science to solutions. We know we need to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. But progress has been painfully slow. </p>
<p>It’s clear the world is lacking climate leadership. So what makes a great climate leader and why are we not seeing more of them?</p>
<p>For two years now I’ve been on a journey, a quest if you like, to find good climate leaders. This is the subject of my new documentary, <a href="https://climatechangersmovie.com">Climate Changers</a> with director Johan Gabrielsson.</p>
<h2>Missed opportunities and wasted time</h2>
<p>Saul Griffith is an engineer who wants to “electrify everything”. The co-founder of non-profit group <a href="https://www.rewiringaustralia.org/">Rewiring Australia</a> decried the “dearth of political leadership” when he told us:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We haven’t had any head of state, of any major nation, positively and proactively engage on climate as an emergency, as an opportunity […] we haven’t had a Churchill or Roosevelt or John F Kennedy ‘let’s go to the moon’ that says: ‘here’s a threat, here’s an opportunity, here’s a vision for how we collectively get there’.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>If we’d been on the right emissions reduction trajectory a decade ago, we’d have more time to deal with the problem. But we’ve <a href="https://theconversation.com/failure-is-not-an-option-after-a-lost-decade-on-climate-action-the-2020s-offer-one-last-chance-158913">wasted ten years</a>. </p>
<p>Over that period, probably 20% of all of the <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/climate-change/state-of-the-climate/greenhouse-gases">carbon pollution</a> we’ve ever put into the atmosphere has been emitted. </p>
<p>A lot of money was made creating those emissions, and that has only benefited a few. But of course the consequences of the emissions will stay with humanity for many, many, many generations.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Introducing Climate Changers.</span></figcaption>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/group-therapy-helps-scientists-cope-with-challenging-climate-emotions-208933">Group therapy helps scientists cope with challenging 'climate emotions'</a>
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<h2>A different style of leadership</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, modern Western politics doesn’t select for great leaders. But there are a few scattered about.</p>
<p>One such example is <a href="https://100climateconversations.com/matt-kean/">Matt Kean</a> in New South Wales. In 2020, as state energy minister and treasurer during the Liberal Berejiklian government, he managed to get the Nationals, the Liberals, Labor and the Greens all supporting the same bill, on addressing climate change through clean energy. In my opinion, that is true leadership. </p>
<p>As Kean told us: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>What you’ve got to do if you’re going to try and solve the challenge is find those areas of common ground. […] it was about finding the big things that everyone could agree on and designing policy that brought everyone together. And I think that was the key to our success.</p>
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<p>Climate leadership requires humility. It requires listening to your political antagonists as well as your allies. </p>
<p>That sort of leadership is rare in our political system. And yet you see it in Indigenous communities and in the Pacific nations where I’ve done a lot of work over the years, that sort of leadership is much more common. Because people understand they need to be consultative. And transparent.</p>
<p>West Papuan activist and human rights lawyer, Frederika Korain, and Solomon Island Kwaio community leader and conservationist, Chief Esau Kekeubata, are shining examples. They show individual bravery and diligence, but they’re also humble and listening.</p>
<p>On the subject of leadership, they share similar sentiments with Australia’s Dharawal and Yuin custodian and community leader Paul Knight.</p>
<p>It’s about bringing other people along with you. It’s not some strong-arm thing, like you often see at our federal level, in our politics. It’s about listening, developing a consensus. It takes time, a lot of effort, and you’ll probably never get full consensus, but we’ll get most of the way there, convincing people. </p>
<p>I’ve seen Chief Esau work. He says very little in the most important meetings, but when someone says something he thinks is on the right track, he’ll say, “Oh, that’s really interesting. Can you can you tell us a bit more”. He directs the conversation. </p>
<p>So in a species like ours, that’s what true leadership consists of. Intelligence, persistence, bravery bordering on heroism sometimes, because climate change is the enemy of everyone.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/study-finds-2-billion-people-will-struggle-to-survive-in-a-warming-world-and-these-parts-of-australia-are-most-vulnerable-205927">Study finds 2 billion people will struggle to survive in a warming world – and these parts of Australia are most vulnerable</a>
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<h2>What’s holding us back?</h2>
<p>There’s a very strong relationship in Australia between political power and fossil fuels. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-walk-the-talk-on-climate-labor-must-come-clean-about-the-future-for-coal-and-gas-183641">links are interwoven</a>, with people moving <a href="https://theconversation.com/revealed-the-extent-of-job-swapping-between-public-servants-and-fossil-fuel-lobbyists-88695">from the fossil fuel industry to politics and back</a>. </p>
<p>And we still allow people to become <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/19/life-earth-wealth-megarich-spending-power-environmental-damage">extremely rich</a> at the expense of all of us. I think that’s what’s holding us back. </p>
<p>I expect those who are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/08/17/greenhouse-emissions-income-inequality/">very wealthy</a>, who have made their money in fossil fuels, imagine they’ll be able to retire to some gated community and live their life in luxury. </p>
<p>But we all depend on a strong global economy and trade, which is <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/06/impact-climate-change-global-gdp/">under threat</a> as the climate breaks down. </p>
<p>The idea that you can somehow isolate yourself from the environment and the rest of society is one of the great failings of human imagination that has brought us so close to catastrophe.</p>
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<h2>Rise up</h2>
<p>I do see individual people rising to the occasion. And the story is usually somewhat similar: people realise they could lose something very precious. We heard it time and time again in the making of this documentary. </p>
<p>For community campaigner Jo Dodds the trigger was the Black Summer bushfires, the near-loss of her house and the loss of her neighbours’ houses. For former US Vice President Al Gore it was having his son in critical care for 30 days, having to put aside his politics and think about what his life was really about. Those sort of moments do bring out great climate leaders. Even Kean talked about bringing his newborn son home from hospital, shrouded in bushfire smoke. </p>
<p>The level of public awareness is far greater now than when I came to this issue in the early 2000s. </p>
<p>The most important thing I can do now is inspire and enable others to be climate leaders. Because we need a diversity of voices out there. We need women. We need younger people. We need people from the Pacific Islands, and First Nations people.</p>
<p>This documentary is about trying to inspire and encourage emerging leaders to give us the diversity of voices we need to make a difference. It’s never too late – we can always prevent something worse from happening. </p>
<p><em><a href="https://climatechangersmovie.com">Climate Changers</a> launches nationally with a livestreamed Q&A on September 17 and will <a href="https://climatechangersmovie.com/screenings/">screen in cinemas</a> and at community events.</em></p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-urgently-need-100bn-for-renewable-energy-but-call-it-statecraft-not-industry-policy-213351">We urgently need $100bn for renewable energy. But call it statecraft, not 'industry policy'</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213066/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Flannery is Ambassador for RegenAqua, which uses seaweed and river grass to clean up wastewater before it flows out to sea and on to the Great Barrier Reef. He consults for the not-for-profit environmental charity, Odonata.
He is Chief Councillor and Founding Member of the Climate Council, Governor at WWF-Australia and Member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists.</span></em></p>What makes a great climate leader and why are we not seeing more of them? I’ve been searching for good examples of climate leaders. This is the subject of our new documentary, Climate Changers.Tim Flannery, Honorary fellow, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2133642023-09-13T05:35:19Z2023-09-13T05:35:19ZWe just blew past 1.5 degrees. Game over on climate? Not yet<p>July 2023 was the hottest month <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/july-2023-confirmed-hottest-month-record">ever recorded</a>. And now we know something even more alarming. This week, the European Space Agency announced the July heat pushed the global average temperatures 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-11/global-temperatures-pass-1-5c-above-pre-industrial-levels/102836304">ominous headlines</a> seemed to suggest we’d blown past the 2015 Paris Agreement goal of holding warming to 1.5°C – and around a decade earlier than expected.</p>
<p>Is that it? Game over, we lost? </p>
<p>Well, like all things to do with climate change, it’s not quite that simple. The threshold was breached for a month before average temperatures dropped back. And July 2023 isn’t actually the first time this has happened either – the dubious honour goes to <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/tracking-breaches-150c-global-warming-threshold">February 2016</a>, where we broke the threshold for a few days. </p>
<h2>Remind me – why is 1.5°C so important?</h2>
<p>In 2015, the world looked like it was finally getting somewhere with action to combat climate change. After decades of arduous debate, 195 nations adopted the Paris Agreement, a formal but <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/faq/faq-chapter-1/">non-binding agreement</a> with a clear goal: limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels to avoid the worst effects of climate change. </p>
<p>But there’s nothing magic about this number. Every increase worsens the impacts. So why is 1.5°C so important?</p>
<p>Essentially, it was thrashed out by experts as a threshold representing heightened danger. <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">The Paris Agreement states</a> avoiding dangerous climate change means keeping global temperatures “well below 2°C” of warming, and so the 1.5°C threshold was born.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-1-5-global-warming-limit-is-not-impossible-but-without-political-action-it-soon-will-be-159297">The 1.5℃ global warming limit is not impossible – but without political action it soon will be</a>
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<p>What’s a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3179">dangerous level</a> of climate change? Basically, levels of warming where the damage becomes so widespread or severe as to threaten economies, ecosystems, agriculture, and risk irreversible tipping points such as the collapse of ice sheets or ocean circulations. More importantly, this level of warming risks pushing us beyond the limits of being able to adapt. </p>
<p>Put simply, the 1.5°C threshold is the best estimate of the point where we are likely to find ourselves well up the proverbial creek, without a paddle. </p>
<h2>Is it too late to act on climate change?</h2>
<p>So, should we all just give up? </p>
<p>Not yet. </p>
<p>The global authority on climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, defines 1.5°C as a departure from global average temperatures above the 1850 to 1900 (pre-industrial) average. </p>
<p>It’s true that this threshold was exceeded for the month of July 2023. But the climate is more than a single month. </p>
<p>Global average temperatures go up and down every year on top of the global warming trend, because climates naturally vary year-to-year. </p>
<p>The most recent few years have been much warmer than average, but cooler than they could have been because of consecutive La Niña events. </p>
<p>This year, there’s been a significant acceleration in warming, largely due to the brewing El Niño event in the Pacific. El Niño years tend to <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-so-many-climate-records-breaking-all-at-once-209214">be hotter</a>. </p>
<p>To iron out year-to-year differences, we typically average data over several decades. As a result, a 2021 IPCC report defines the 1.5°C threshold as the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-01702-w">first 20-year period</a> when we reach 1.5°C of global warming (based on surface air temperatures). </p>
<p>Recent <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2207183120">research</a> shows the best estimate to pass this threshold is in the early 2030s. That means, by IPCC definitions, the average global temperature between the early 2020s and early 2040s is estimated to be 1.5C. </p>
<h2>Dangerously close to the red line</h2>
<p>All of this means we haven’t yet failed to meet our Paris targets. But the July record shows us we are dangerously close to the line. </p>
<p>As the world keeps heating up, we’ll see more and more months like this July, and move closer and closer to the threshold of 1.5°C, beyond which global warming will become more and more dangerous. </p>
<p>Is it still possible to stay below 1.5°C? Maybe. We would need extremely aggressive cuts to emissions to have a chance. Failing that, we will likely exceed the Paris target within the next decade or so. </p>
<p>Let’s say that happens. Would that mean we just give up on climate action? </p>
<p>Hardly. 1.5°C is bad. 1.6°C would be worse. 2°C would be worse still. 3°C would be <a href="https://theconversation.com/seriously-ugly-heres-how-australia-will-look-if-the-world-heats-by-3-c-this-century-157875">unthinkable</a>. Every extra increment matters.</p>
<p>The closer we stay to the line – even if we cross it – the better. </p>
<p>And there’s now <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/accd83/meta">good evidence</a> that even if we overshoot 1.5°C, we could still reverse it by ending emissions and soaking up excess greenhouse gas emissions. It’s like turning around an enormous container ship – it takes time to overcome the inertia. But the sooner we turn around, the better.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/after-cop27-all-signs-point-to-world-blowing-past-the-1-5-degrees-global-warming-limit-heres-what-we-can-still-do-about-it-195080">After COP27, all signs point to world blowing past the 1.5 degrees global warming limit – here's what we can still do about it</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213364/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ailie Gallant receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kimberley Reid receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>July was the hottest month on record – and took us past 1.5 degrees. But one month isn’t the same as failing to meet our Paris Agreement goalsAilie Gallant, Senior Lecturer, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash UniversityKimberley Reid, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Atmospheric Sciences, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2106552023-09-03T07:46:09Z2023-09-03T07:46:09ZZimbabwe’s climate action plan: a win for the environment, health and energy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545067/original/file-20230828-26-s7ub5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=44%2C0%2C5000%2C3263&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Reducing carbon emissions will promote health and development in Zimbabwe. Zinyange Auntony/ AFP/</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/school-children-ride-bicycles-through-a-forest-to-school-on-news-photo/1258934871?adppopup=true">Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The dumping of billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide and other <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">greenhouse gases</a> into the atmosphere yearly is already having a devastating impact around the world. This includes <a href="https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf#page=140">widespread flooding and droughts, raging wildfires, heatwaves and record temperatures</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=22125">Africa</a> is particularly hard hit, with temperatures and sea levels rising faster across the continent than the global average. </p>
<p>In Zimbabwe, unreliable rainfalls and extended droughts are affecting <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/zimbabwe-drought-driving-hydropower-crisis-and-search-alternatives">hydro electricity generation, resulting in rolling blackouts</a>. Food production is also affected. A <a href="https://www.wfp.org/stories/how-drought-killing-zimbabwe">large fraction of Zimbabwe’s population is at risk of severe hunger</a>.</p>
<p>In 2015, almost all countries signed the <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf">Paris Agreement</a>, a commitment to tackle climate change. The intention was to limit global temperature increase to below 2°C, or ideally 1.5°C. To achieve this, countries submitted individual plans, called Nationally Determined Contributions, to reduce their contribution to climate change. They agreed to update them every five years.</p>
<p>The continent of Africa <a href="https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=22125">contributes 2%-3%</a> of the global greenhouse gas emissions causing climate change. Zimbabwe <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221146452300091X">contributes less than 0.1%</a>. Despite this small contribution, all African countries submitted their plans to reduce emissions. </p>
<p>In 2015, Zimbabwe committed to <a href="https://unfccc.int/NDCREG">reducing its emissions</a> by 33% by 2030. In 2021, it <a href="https://climatepromise.undp.org/what-we-do/where-we-work/zimbabwe">updated</a> the target to a 40% reduction by 2030 across all sectors. This significant improvement increases the fraction of emissions that Zimbabwe will reduce from all emitting sectors. </p>
<p>The energy sector is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221146452300091X">responsible for about 34%</a> of Zimbabwe’s total emissions. Including other sectors, like agriculture and forestry (58% of total emissions), waste (5%) and industrial processes (3%) will substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions if Zimbabwe achieves its target. </p>
<h2>How Zimbabwe can meet its emission reduction target</h2>
<p>The updated target was informed by an assessment of how greenhouse gas emission could be reduced. The assessment was done by a team of researchers from Zimbabwe and the Stockholm Environment Institute at the University of York (including myself). It provided a clear plan to achieve the targets through the implementation of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221146452300091X">28 specific policies and measures</a>. </p>
<p>We assessed the benefits of these actions to mitigate climate change. We also reviewed other implications of taking each action locally in Zimbabwe. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221146452300091X">Our research</a> showed that by implementing its climate change plan, Zimbabwe would not only meet its international obligations, but achieve a broad set of health, social and development benefits. </p>
<p>The study assessed and quantified how the 28 actions to achieve Zimbabwe’s climate change plan would contribute to specific <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/goals">Sustainable Development Goals</a>. </p>
<p>The top three benefits identified were improved public health, enhanced biodiversity, and greater access to reliable energy supplies. Each of these benefits is a priority within <a href="https://zimbabwe.un.org/en/153007-2021-2025-national-development-strategy-nds-i">Zimbabwe’s National Development Strategy 1 2021-2025</a>. </p>
<p>Good health is a constitutional right in Zimbabwe. Air pollution and unsafe sanitation are among the top 10 <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30752-2/fulltext">risk factors for health</a> in Zimbabwe, and can be reduced by carrying out Zimbabwe’s climate change plan. </p>
<p>Reducing biodiversity losses will not only address an environmental challenge in Zimbabwe’s National Development Strategy, but preserve and enhance the tourism industry. </p>
<p>After years of unreliable energy supplies due to drought, and reliance on biomass fuels for cooking for much of the population, providing <a href="https://www.zera.co.zw/National_Renewable_Energy_Policy_Final.pdf#page=9">regular and reliable energy supplies</a> is critical for alleviating poverty and economic growth. </p>
<h2>Counting the benefits</h2>
<p><strong>Public health:</strong> Currently, almost 6,000 infants and over 8,000 adults <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221146452300091X">die</a> yearly from air pollution in Zimbabwe. Almost 1,600 people die from road traffic accidents, and 337 people <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221146452300091X">die</a> from unsafe sanitation. The study estimates that actions reducing greenhouse gases would also reduce air pollutant emissions by between 35% and 45% by 2030. This would lead to lower air pollution exposure, especially indoors where women and girls are most exposed while cooking.</p>
<p>Cleaner energy for cooking, improved transport systems and improved waste management all reduce air pollution. Increasing the use of public transport, or walking and cycling, rather than using cars can reduce road accidents and greenhouse gas emissions from transport. </p>
<p>Expanding access to sanitation systems would reduce the number of people dying from diarrhoeal diseases, and reduce methane emissions if the correct systems were installed.</p>
<p><strong>Improved biodiversity:</strong> Zimbabwe’s climate change actions also include changes to how land is used. It aims to <a href="http://www.envirotourism.org.zw/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Zimbabwe-Revised-Nationally-Determined-Contribution-2021-Final-1.pdf#page=36">reduce burned areas of forest by 500,000 hectares and add 100,000 hectares</a> of natural forest every year to 2025. The plan would also manage 250,000 more hectares of cropland using sustainable “conservation agriculture” techniques. </p>
<p>These actions were estimated to achieve multiple benefits, including improving soil health and protecting biodiversity, with possible reduction in the losses of both animals and plants.</p>
<p><strong>Access to reliable energy:</strong> Achieving Zimbabwe’s climate change plan is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221146452300091X">built</a> on extending electricity access to 95% of urban households and 75% of rural households. Actions in the plan include the expansion of renewable electricity generation, energy efficiency improvements, and reducing losses from electricity transmission and distribution. These steps can help ensure that access to energy is quick and effective, thereby reducing blackouts and reliance on fossil fuels. </p>
<p>In addition, the study shows that Zimbabwe could increase recycling rates while reducing emissions from waste. The country can equally reduce the time people – predominantly women and girls – spend cooking by switching to cleaner cooking fuels.</p>
<h2>More than a sacrifice</h2>
<p>Tackling climate change is often viewed as a necessary sacrifice, rather than an opportunity to improve lives. </p>
<p>Climate change targets are often focused solely on how they contribute to global, long-term aspirations, rather than the benefits that countries can achieve in the short term.</p>
<p>Our study shows the social, health and development benefits that Zimbabwe could enjoy by tackling its (small) contribution to climate change. This is not unique to Zimbabwe, nor a full list of all possible <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0012-x">benefits</a> from climate change action.</p>
<p>What is notable about the Zimbabwe study is that these local benefits were evaluated and quantified, alongside greenhouse gas emission reductions. They provide a positive case of what countries can gain from taking climate action. </p>
<p>Integrating quantitative assessment of local benefits when countries develop their climate change plans, following Zimbabwe’s example, could help boost national climate plans. This would in turn help the world meet necessary emission reduction timelines and avoid the worst impacts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210655/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Malley receives funding from the United Nations Environment Programme, and UK Research & Innovation, . </span></em></p>Zimbabwe’s climate action plan is on track to check emissions and promote development. Other countries can learn from it.Chris Malley, Research Fellow, Stockholm Environment Institute York Centre, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2114312023-08-30T20:36:24Z2023-08-30T20:36:24ZWe studied more than 1,500 coastal ecosystems - they will drown if we let the world warm above 2°C<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545179/original/file-20230829-15-v3if80.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=46%2C20%2C3368%2C2826&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Simon Albert</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Much of the world’s natural coastline is protected by living habitats, most notably mangroves in warmer waters and tidal marshes closer to the poles. These ecosystems support fisheries and wildlife, absorb the impact of crashing waves and clean up pollutants. But these vital services are threatened by global warming and rising sea levels. </p>
<p>Recent research has shown wetlands can respond to sea level rise by building up their root systems, <a href="https://theconversation.com/rising-seas-allow-coastal-wetlands-to-store-more-carbon-113020">pulling carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in the process</a>. Growing recognition of the potential for this “blue” carbon sequestration is driving mangrove and tidal marsh restoration projects. </p>
<p>While the resilience of these ecosystems is impressive, it is not without limits. Defining the upper limits to mangrove and marsh resilience under accelerating sea level rise is a topic of great interest and considerable debate. </p>
<p>Our new research, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06448-z">published today in the journal Nature</a>, analyses the vulnerability and exposure of mangroves, marshes and coral islands to sea level rise. The results underscore the critical importance of keeping global warming within 2 degrees of the pre-industrial baseline. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542967/original/file-20230816-19-44orpq.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A photo showing uprooted trees in tropical waters of the Solomon Islands." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542967/original/file-20230816-19-44orpq.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542967/original/file-20230816-19-44orpq.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=215&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542967/original/file-20230816-19-44orpq.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=215&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542967/original/file-20230816-19-44orpq.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=215&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542967/original/file-20230816-19-44orpq.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542967/original/file-20230816-19-44orpq.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542967/original/file-20230816-19-44orpq.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Coral islands are contracting, causing habitat loss in the Solomon Islands.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Simon Albert</span></span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/not-waving-drowning-why-keeping-warming-under-1-5-is-a-life-or-death-matter-for-tidal-marshes-187540">Not waving, drowning: why keeping warming under 1.5℃ is a life-or-death matter for tidal marshes</a>
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<h2>What we did</h2>
<p>We pulled together all the available evidence on how mangroves, tidal marshes and coral islands respond to sea level rise. That included: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>delving into the geological record to study how coastal systems responded to past sea level rise, following the last Ice Age</p></li>
<li><p>tapping into a global network of <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/centers/eesc/science/surface-elevation-table">survey benchmarks</a> in mangroves and tidal marshes</p></li>
<li><p>analysing satellite imagery for changes in the extent of wetlands and coral islands at varying rates of sea level rise.</p></li>
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<p>Altogether, our international team assessed 190 mangroves, 477 tidal marshes and 872 coral reef islands around the world. </p>
<p>We then used computer modelling to work out how much these coastal ecosystems would be exposed to rapid sea level rise under projected warming scenarios. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545438/original/file-20230830-15-1g4pn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A photo of the eroding wetland at Towra Point in Sydney, showing the stumps and exposed roots of trees washed up on the beach" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545438/original/file-20230830-15-1g4pn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545438/original/file-20230830-15-1g4pn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545438/original/file-20230830-15-1g4pn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545438/original/file-20230830-15-1g4pn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545438/original/file-20230830-15-1g4pn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545438/original/file-20230830-15-1g4pn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545438/original/file-20230830-15-1g4pn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Eroding wetland at Towra Point in Sydney.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Neil Saintilan</span></span>
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<h2>What we found</h2>
<p>Mangroves, tidal marshes and coral islands can cope with low rates of sea-level rise. They remain stable and healthy. </p>
<p>We found most tidal marshes and mangroves are keeping pace with current rates of sea level rise, around 2–4mm per year. Coral islands also appear stable under these conditions. </p>
<p>In some locations, land is sinking, so the relative rate of sea level rise is greater. It may be double this 2–4mm figure or more, comparable to rates expected under future climate change. In these situations, we found <a href="https://theconversation.com/not-waving-drowning-why-keeping-warming-under-1-5-is-a-life-or-death-matter-for-tidal-marshes-187540">marshes failing to keep up</a> with sea level rise. They are slowly drowning and in some cases, breaking up. What’s more, these are the same rates of sea level rise under which marshes and mangrove drown in the geological record.</p>
<p>These cases give us a glimpse of the future in a warming world.</p>
<p>So if the rate of sea level rise doubles to 7 or 8 millimetres a year, it becomes “very likely” (90% probability) mangroves and tidal marshes will no longer keep pace, and “likely” (about 67% probability) coral islands will undergo rapid changes. These rates will be reached when the 2.0°C warming threshold is exceeded. </p>
<p>Even at the lower rates of sea level rise we would have between 1.5°C and 2.0°C of warming (4 or 5mm a year), extensive loss of mangrove and tidal marsh is likely. </p>
<p>Tidal marshes are less exposed to these rates of sea level rise than mangroves because they occur in regions where the land is rising, reducing the relative rate of sea level rise.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rising-seas-threaten-to-drown-important-mangrove-forests-unless-we-intervene-49146">Rising seas threaten to drown important mangrove forests, unless we intervene</a>
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<h2>Let’s give coastal ecosystems a fighting chance</h2>
<p>We know mangroves and tidal marshes have survived rapid sea level rise before, at rates even higher than those projected under extreme climate change. </p>
<p>They won’t have long enough to build up root systems or trap sediment in order to stay in place, so they will seek higher ground by shifting landward into newly flooded coastal lowlands. </p>
<p>But this time, they will be competing with other land uses and increasingly trapped behind coastal levees and hard barriers such as roads and buildings. </p>
<p>If the global temperature rise is limited to 2°C, coastal ecosystems have a fighting chance. But if this threshold is exceeded, they will need more help. </p>
<p>Intervention is needed to enable the retreat of mangroves and tidal marshes across our coastal landscapes. There is a role for governments in designating retreat pathways, controlling coastal development, and expanding coastal nature reserves into higher ground. </p>
<p>The future of the world’s living coastlines is in our hands. If we work to restore mangroves and tidal marshes to their former extent, they can help us tackle climate change. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-can-drive-social-tipping-points-for-better-or-for-worse-210641">Climate change can drive social tipping points – for better or for worse</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Saintilan receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the National Environmental Science Program, and the Alexander Von Humboldt Foundation.</span></em></p>Rising seas are pushing coastal ecosystems to the limit of endurance. Now international research reveals a “tipping point” will be reached if we allow more than 2 degrees of global warming.Neil Saintilan, Professor, School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2121212023-08-23T11:41:08Z2023-08-23T11:41:08ZIntergenerational report highlights the threat of a hotter, less productive Australia due to global warming<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544214/original/file-20230823-21-iitv1q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C20%2C6968%2C3594&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Global warming threatens to have major impacts on Australia’s labour productivity, agriculture and tourism over coming decades, according to the Intergenerational Report, which makes climate change a major focus of its projections for the early 2060s. </p>
<p>Climate change and the international energy transition will also have extensive implications for Australia’s resources sector, with demand for thermal coal falling dramatically and that for critical minerals increasing substantially. </p>
<p>The report, which projects four decade ahead, stresses the need for effective mitigation of further temperature increases and targeted investment in adaptation.</p>
<p>Under the Paris Agreement, countries have committed to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C.</p>
<p>The report, to be released by Treasurer Jim Chalmers on Thursday, says over the next 40 years, under a scenario where global temperatures increase by up to 3°C by 2100, Australia’s average temperature is projected to rise by 1.7°C. But there would be regional variations.</p>
<p>The average temperature in parts of central and northern Western Australia is projected to rise by 1.8°C, but only a 1.3°C increase is projected for Tasmania. </p>
<p>“This suggests Western Australia could be more directly affected by the labour productivity impacts of higher temperatures than some other Australian states and territories,” the report says. </p>
<p>“Similarly, some regional and remote communities, including Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, are expected to be particularly exposed to higher temperatures.” </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-intergenerational-report-sets-the-scene-for-2063-but-what-is-it-211694">The intergenerational report sets the scene for 2063 – but what is it?</a>
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<p>If global temperatures were to increase by up to 3°C or more than 4°C, without changes to present ways of working, Australia’s aggregate labour productivity levels could decrease by 0.2%-0.8% by 2063.</p>
<p>This would reduce economic output over this period by $135 billion - $423 billion (in today’s dollars), through the direct impacts of higher temperatures on labour productivity.</p>
<p>In contrast, if global action limits temperature increases to 2°C, Australia could benefit from up to an extra $155 billion in GDP, compared with a scenario where temperatures increase up to 3°C. This is equal to 26 to 41 million more hours of work in 2063, the report says.</p>
<p>It notes that investing in measures to limit worker heat exposure, such as tree planting or altering building designs to enhance passive cooling, can also mitigate to some extent the impacts on labour productivity of higher temperatures.</p>
<p>If global action limits temperature increases to 1.5°C, reduced demand for thermal coal could cut Australia’s exports of it to less than 1% of present levels by 2063.</p>
<p>But if temperature increases are limited to 2°C this century, Australia’s thermal coal exports are estimated to fall by 50% by 2063. </p>
<p>The fall in international demand for Australia’s thermal coal would be slower if global action fails to deliver on the Paris Agreement, resulting in warming above 2°C this century, the report says.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/intergenerational-report-to-warn-of-slow-growth-pressure-on-revenue-211916">Intergenerational report to warn of slow growth, pressure on revenue</a>
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<p>Without adaptation measures Australian crop yields could be up to 4% lower by 2063 if global action fails to keep temperature rises below 3°C this century. These reductions could be largely avoided if global temperatures rise less than 2°C.</p>
<p>The report says some impacts on crop yields could be mitigated by measures such as changing the crops planted in particular areas and improving water efficiency.</p>
<p>It says other countries in our region might be even more affected than Australia by climate change, which could result in more demand for Australian agricultural exports.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-intergenerational-report-tries-to-scare-us-about-ageing-its-an-old-fear-and-wrong-212003">The intergenerational report tries to scare us about ageing. It's an old fear, and wrong</a>
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<p>Australia’s services sector will also be affected by rising temperatures, with tourists adjusting where and when they decide to travel. </p>
<p>“Australia has a large number of natural attractions at risk of environmental degradation which may attract fewer tourists in a world of higher global temperatures. At least 50% of Australia’s sandy coastline, a major drawcard for tourism, is under threat of erosion due to climate change.</p>
<p>"Many of Australia’s top attractions are also in regions likely to be increasingly susceptible to natural disasters, risking travel disruption and reputational harm. For example, in the immediate aftermath of the 2019–20 bushfires, an estimated 80,000 tourists cancelled or postponed activities,” the report says.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212121/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The report to be released on Thursday says an increase in global temperatures of 3-4°C would cost Australia $135 billion to $423 billion.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2116092023-08-18T03:16:12Z2023-08-18T03:16:12ZNearly two-thirds of the top fossil fuel producers in Australia and the world aren’t on track for 1.5°C climate target<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543144/original/file-20230817-17-kl576x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=827%2C0%2C4480%2C2984&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Rapid reductions in fossil fuel production and use are essential to limit global warming to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels. Our new <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01734-0">research</a> shows most of the world’s major coal, oil and gas companies are yet to make meaningful reductions. </p>
<p>Some companies have been quick to announce net-zero targets or other claims of alignment with the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a>. But how do their actions compare to what must be done to achieve the agreed goal of keeping the temperature increase below 1.5°C? </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/files/RekkerEtAl_NCC2022_RnR2_All.pdf">research</a> developed a method to track whether production by individual fossil fuel companies is aligned with putting the world on a 1.5°C climate pathway. We use production budgets as these can be compared directly with fossil fuel demand scenarios and avoid the need for complex emissions calculations. </p>
<p>More than 60% of the top 142 oil, gas and coal companies – including three of the five Australian companies assessed – were not on track. Rio Tinto and BHP were the two Australian companies found to be on track. Between 2014 and 2020, the fossil fuel sectors exceeded overall production budgets by 64% (oil), 63% (gas) and 70% (coal). </p>
<p>These budgets are the levels of production needed to limit warming to 1.5°C under the Paris Agreement “<a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change/">middle-of-the-road scenario</a>” (where trends broadly follow their historical patterns).</p>
<p>We need freely available information to understand the impact companies are having on the climate and to hold them accountable. Our results are on the website <a href="https://www.areyoupariscompliant.com">Are you Paris compliant?</a>.</p>
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<img alt="Trucks carry loads of coal at a mine" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543145/original/file-20230817-21-7snpd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543145/original/file-20230817-21-7snpd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543145/original/file-20230817-21-7snpd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543145/original/file-20230817-21-7snpd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543145/original/file-20230817-21-7snpd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543145/original/file-20230817-21-7snpd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543145/original/file-20230817-21-7snpd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Coal producers were 70% over the production budget needed to stay on track for no more than 1.5°C warming.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/it-can-be-done-it-must-be-done-ipcc-delivers-definitive-report-on-climate-change-and-where-to-now-201763">'It can be done. It must be done': IPCC delivers definitive report on climate change, and where to now</a>
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<h2>How can we track companies’ actions?</h2>
<p>In an earlier <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-31143-4">research paper</a>, we laid the foundation of what Paris compliance means using a strict science-based approach. We developed several conditions. </p>
<p>Firstly, the base year of measuring progress of an entity should be the same as the starting year of the decarbonisation scenario being used. While there are many such scenarios, the pathway has to be consistent with a 1.5°C or “well below” 2°C warming limit as stated in the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>To prevent constant delay of action, only pathways starting in or before 2015 should be used. That’s when the world’s nations committed to decarbonisation under the Paris Agreement. For example, if a company wants to track its alignment with a well-below 2°C pathway starting in 2014, it should start tracking from 2014. </p>
<p>Also, companies should make up for action deficits since the base year to stay within their budgets. </p>
<p>Commonly used frameworks such as the Science Based Targets initiative (<a href="https://sciencebasedtargets.org/about-us">SBTi</a>) and the London School of Economics’ Transition Pathway Initiative (<a href="https://www.transitionpathwayinitiative.org/">TPI</a>) don’t comply with these conditions. The not-for-profit SBTi is the primary point of call for companies wanting to develop emission reduction targets. It’s a partnership between <a href="https://www.cdp.net/en/info/about-us">CDP</a> (which runs the global system of environmental impact disclosures), <a href="https://unglobalcompact.org/">UN Global Compact</a>, <a href="https://www.worldwildlife.org/">World Wildlife Fund</a> and <a href="https://www.wri.org/">World Resources Institute</a>.</p>
<p>We have now applied our more rigorous approach to fossil fuel companies. Using publicly available production data from the <a href="https://climateaccountability.org/">Climate Accountability Institute</a> allows us to assess a large number of companies. </p>
<p>We evaluated the 142 largest producers of coal, oil and gas against four possible emissions “<a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change/">pathways</a>” to limit temperature increase to 1.5°C this century. We used three pathways set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2014 and the International Energy Agency’s <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-and-climate-model/net-zero-emissions-by-2050-scenario-nze">Net Zero Emissions</a> pathway from 2020. Each pathway involves different scenarios of climate actions, emissions and carbon capture and storage.</p>
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<img alt="a gas fractionation plant" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543149/original/file-20230817-29-1dr1ti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543149/original/file-20230817-29-1dr1ti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543149/original/file-20230817-29-1dr1ti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543149/original/file-20230817-29-1dr1ti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543149/original/file-20230817-29-1dr1ti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543149/original/file-20230817-29-1dr1ti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543149/original/file-20230817-29-1dr1ti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Gas producers exceeded their production budget by 63% from 2014 to 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-ditch-90-of-worlds-coal-and-60-of-oil-and-gas-to-limit-warming-to-1-5-c-experts-167494">Climate change: ditch 90% of world's coal and 60% of oil and gas to limit warming to 1.5°C – experts</a>
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<h2>Off course, with much more to do</h2>
<p>Not only did we find the majority of these companies are not currently aligned, but the outlook is also troubling. If recent trends (2010-2018) continue, the companies would produce up to 68% (coal), 42% (oil) and 53% (gas) more than their cumulative production budgets by 2050.</p>
<p>In Australia, the three companies not on track were Whitehaven Coal, Santos and Woodside. They exceeded their production budgets by 232% (Whitehaven coal), 28% (Santos oil) and 33% (Santos gas), and 39% (Woodside gas, on track for oil).</p>
<p>BHP was on track because it has reduced its coal, oil and gas production <em>more</em> than required between 2014 and 2020 under the middle-of-the-road 1.5°C scenario. It used 87% (coal), 85% (oil) and 92% (gas) of its production budgets. Rio Tinto entirely stopped its production of coal in 2018. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-pay-billions-to-subsidise-australias-fossil-fuel-industry-this-makes-absolutely-no-economic-sense-189866">We pay billions to subsidise Australia’s fossil fuel industry. This makes absolutely no economic sense</a>
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<p>While we project future production using historical (2010-2018) growth, a next step would be to assess how current production plans align with 1.5°C pathways. </p>
<p>Companies can use our method to see how much they need to reduce production to be aligned. They can also see how much carbon capture and storage is required under a certain 1.5°C pathway. </p>
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<img alt="Sun sets behind an oil production platform and pipeline" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543365/original/file-20230818-8328-u3g6ft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543365/original/file-20230818-8328-u3g6ft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543365/original/file-20230818-8328-u3g6ft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543365/original/file-20230818-8328-u3g6ft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543365/original/file-20230818-8328-u3g6ft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543365/original/file-20230818-8328-u3g6ft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543365/original/file-20230818-8328-u3g6ft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Oil producers were 64% over their collective production budget for keeping global warming to 1.5°C.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-oil-industry-has-succumbed-to-a-dangerous-new-climate-denialism-210726">The oil industry has succumbed to a dangerous new climate denialism</a>
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<h2>Tracking enables accountability</h2>
<p>For companies to claim Paris alignment, they must be accountable for achieving the required levels of mitigation (reducing production and carbon capture and storage) under a particular 1.5°C pathway. </p>
<p>Our method provides a foundation to drive this change. It offers a relatively simple way to measure corporate actions against the reductions required.</p>
<p>Our work aids the development of standards, regulation and guidance on what Paris alignment actually means. The Science Based Targets initiative has yet to finalise a method for the oil and gas sector. It has no method for coal. </p>
<p>Our method provides a process that can fill this void. In addition to tracking individual companies’ compliance with the Paris Agreement, we require clarity on their intentions beyond just setting targets. The International Sustainability Standards Board (<a href="https://www.ifrs.org/groups/international-sustainability-standards-board/">ISSB</a>) will play a vital role by requiring detailed climate transition plans from companies in countries that adopt its standards. </p>
<p>Tracking how companies are performing empowers all stakeholders – including governments, investors and individuals like you and me – to advocate for climate action and make climate-safe decisions. For example, investors can use this information to decide which companies to invest in and advocate for change where required. Governments can integrate this information into corporate guidelines for climate action. </p>
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<p><em>CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article mistakenly referred to Whitehaven coal as Woodside coal. This has been corrected.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211609/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Saphira Rekker is affiliated with the Science Based Targets initiative Technical Working Group (Oil & Gas), the Science Based Targets Scientific Advisory Group and the Australian Sustainable Finance Institute Taxonomy Technical Expert Group. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Belinda Wade has a paid position and is an owner/shareholder in the consulting firm Aurecon. She has received internal UQ strategic funding to support research on decarbonisation and has had other grants associated with research projects e.g. Future Fuels CRC and Rural Economies Centre of Excellence.</span></em></p>The 142 fossil fuel producers collectively exceeded the limits on coal, gas and oil production required to achieve the Paris Agreement goals by between 63% and 70%.Saphira Rekker, Senior Lecturer in Sustainable Finance, The University of QueenslandBelinda Wade, Adjunct Associate Professor, School of Business, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.