tag:theconversation.com,2011:/nz/topics/portugal-2193/articlesPortugal – The Conversation2023-03-31T11:32:59Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2006702023-03-31T11:32:59Z2023-03-31T11:32:59ZRemote working: how a surge in digital nomads is pricing out local communities around the world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517870/original/file-20230328-21-82zjj0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/2oppHSFvTJY">Julian Dik/Unsplash</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For eight years I have studied <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/16078055.2023.2190608">digital nomadism</a>, the millenial trend for working remotely from anywhere around the world. I am often asked if it is <a href="https://www.trtworld.com/video/tv-shows/cost-of-living-crisis-are-digital-nomads-pushing-up-rental-prices/6363cd0a903ac000116999b5">driving gentrification</a>. </p>
<p>Before COVID <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-pandemic-will-shape-the-workplace-trends-of-2021-152277">upended</a> the way we work, I would usually tell journalists that the numbers were too small for a definitive answer. Most <a href="https://theconversation.com/digital-nomads-what-its-really-like-to-work-while-travelling-the-world-99345">digital nomads</a> were travelling and working illegally on tourist visas. It was a niche phenomenon.</p>
<p>Three years into the pandemic, however, I am no longer sure. The most recent estimates put the number of digital nomads from <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-inspired-digital-nomads-to-flee-americas-big-cities-may-spur-legions-of-remote-workers-to-do-the-same-157485">the US</a> alone, at 16.9 million, a staggering <a href="https://www.mbopartners.com/state-of-independence/digital-nomads/">increase of 131%</a> from the pre-pandemic year of 2019. </p>
<p>The same survey also suggests that up to 72 million “armchair nomads”, again, only in the US, are considering becoming nomadic. This <a href="https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/teleworking-in-the-covid-19-pandemic-trends-and-prospects-72a416b6/">COVID-induced rise</a> in remote working is a global phenomenon, which means figures for digital nomads beyond the US may be similarly high. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A street view of a tiled building on a steep incline." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517879/original/file-20230328-17-en7ofm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517879/original/file-20230328-17-en7ofm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517879/original/file-20230328-17-en7ofm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517879/original/file-20230328-17-en7ofm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517879/original/file-20230328-17-en7ofm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517879/original/file-20230328-17-en7ofm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517879/original/file-20230328-17-en7ofm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The profitability of short-term lets in Lisbon is driving rents up for local people.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/CVZ0y7APRtU">Diego Garcia/Unsplash</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/16078055.2023.2190608">My research</a> confirms that the cheaper living costs this trend has brought to those able to <a href="https://theconversation.com/remote-work-visas-will-shape-the-future-of-work-travel-and-citizenship-145078">capitalise on it</a> can come with a downside for others. Through interviews and ethnographic fieldwork, I have found that the rise of <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/airbnb-scam-london">professional short-term-let landlords</a>, in particular, is helping to price local people out of their homes. </p>
<p>Before the pandemic, digital nomads were <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40558-020-00172-4/metrics">mostly freelancers</a>. My research has identified four further categories: <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0308275X221120172">digital nomad business owners</a>; experimental digital nomads; armchair digital nomads; and, the fastest emerging category, salaried digital nomads. </p>
<p><strong>The five categories of digital nomad:</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A graphic illustration the five categories of digital nomad." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517880/original/file-20230328-14-mneofv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517880/original/file-20230328-14-mneofv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517880/original/file-20230328-14-mneofv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517880/original/file-20230328-14-mneofv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517880/original/file-20230328-14-mneofv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517880/original/file-20230328-14-mneofv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517880/original/file-20230328-14-mneofv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dave Cook</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the US, the number of salaried nomads – full-time employees now working fully remotely – is estimated to have gone from 3.2 million in 2019 to 11.1 million in 2022. This exponential growth has prompted governments to start paying attention. Last September I gave expert testimony to the UK Treasury on what they called <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ots-report-on-hybrid-and-distance-working">“cross-border working”</a>. </p>
<p>The phenomenon is reshaping cities. Chiang Mai in northern Thailand is often dubbed the <a href="https://shelter.global/why-chiang-mai-is-the-digital-nomad-capital-of-the-world/">digital nomad capital of the world</a>. The Nimmanhaemin area, AKA Nimman or sometimes Coffee Street, brims with coffee shops, co-working spaces, Airbnbs and short-term lets affordable to people on western wages but out of reach for many locals. </p>
<p>For local business owners hit by the pandemic, the return of visitors to Chiang Mai is a relief. But as one Thai Airbnb owner told me: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>There needs to be a balance. We used to live here when Nimman was a quiet neighbourhood.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A coffee shop and a small vehicle in a Thai city." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517868/original/file-20230328-22-elc3l8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517868/original/file-20230328-22-elc3l8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517868/original/file-20230328-22-elc3l8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517868/original/file-20230328-22-elc3l8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517868/original/file-20230328-22-elc3l8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517868/original/file-20230328-22-elc3l8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517868/original/file-20230328-22-elc3l8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chiang Mai’s coffee shops cater largely to foreign visitors.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/Ny6KmVQb_wY">Duy Vo/nsplash</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The purchasing power remote western workers wield</h2>
<p>Lisbon is similarly sought out for the better weather and lower living costs it offers. Buzzwords like the <a href="https://ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/cities-and-the-circular-economy-deep-dive">“circular economy”</a> or the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-sharing-economy-needs-a-democratic-revolution-46788">“sharing economy”</a> are often used by digital nomads to describe why such locations are so suited to their way of living. They describe new approaches to urban living that emphasise mobility, more flexible approaches to building use and re-use, and innovative business models that encourage collaboration. </p>
<p>But the Portuguese capital, like many other urban centres, is in the grip of a housing crisis. Activists, like Rita Silva, of Portuguese <a href="https://housingnotprofit.org/habita-the-housing-struggles-in-lisbon/">housing-rights organisation Habita!</a>, say this influx is making things worse for local people:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We are a small country and Lisbon is a small city, but the foreign population is growing and is very visible in coffee shops and restaurants. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>To Silva’s mind, what she calls “this bullshit of the circular economy” does <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-countries-ranging-from-indonesia-to-mexico-aim-to-attract-digital-nomads-locals-say-not-so-fast-189283">not accurately describe</a> what is happening on the ground. In certain parts of the city, she says, you don’t hear Portuguese anymore, you hear English. This is driving up living costs, well beyond the popular tourist hotspots like Barrio Alto and Principe Real. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/remote-working-the-new-normal-for-many-but-it-comes-with-hidden-risks-new-research-133989">Co-working spaces</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/creative-hubs-spur-innovation-but-also-a-potentially-growing-digital-divide-86916">creative hubs</a> are now appearing in previously traditional working-class areas. With the average salary in Portugal <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/419498/average-annual-wages-portugal-y-on-y/">under US$20,000</a> (£16,226), these are clearly are not aimed at local people. A one-bedroom apartment in these digital nomad hotspots accounts on average for at least <a href="https://www.investigate-europe.eu/en/2022/house-prices-and-rents-rising-across-europe/">63% of a local wage</a> – one of the highest ratios in Europe.</p>
<p>In his 2007 bestseller, The Four-Hour Workweek, author and podcast host Tim Ferris coined the term “geo-arbitrage” to describe the phenomenon of people from higher-income countries – the US, Europe, South Korea – wielding their wages in lower-cost countries. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/M3gmC7WmB4Q?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>For some nomads, this is an essential life-hack. For others, it represents the polarising reality of globalisation: that the entire world should operate as an open, free market. To many, it is unethical. </p>
<p>Urban sociologist Max Holleran points out the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13604813.2022.2124713?journalCode=ccit20">“incredible irony”</a> at play: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Some people are actually becoming digital nomads, because of housing prices in their home countries. And then their presence in less wealthy places, is tightening the housing market leading to displacement in places in the global south [developing countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America].</p>
</blockquote>
<p>On a visit to Chiang Mai in 2019, I booked an Airbnb. I expected to be checked in by the owner. Instead, I was met by someone called Sam (not their real name), who didn’t know the name of the person I have been corresponding with. </p>
<p>In the building’s lobby, a sign for the attention of travellers, tourists and backpackers clearly stated: “This place is NOT A HOTEL. Day/week rentals are NOT ALLOWED.” Yet, in the reception area, people worked on laptops, amid a constant procession of western visitors entering and leaving, with backpacks and wheely suitcases. </p>
<p>I looked back at my booking and realised that the apartment was hosted by a brand I’ll call Home-tel, which, other visitors confirmed, also hosted 17 other apartments. </p>
<p>A local resident said they were considering selling up, or, failing that, renting to a professional short-term-let host. Living there had become unbearable. </p>
<p>I vowed that next time I travelled, I would check I was renting from a bona fide private owner. And I did. Only to find, on arrival, a large sign in the lobby stating, “No short-term lets”. When I confronted the European owner, she said the sign was already there when she purchased the apartment. “What can you do?” she said. “Money talks.”</p>
<p>Holleran explains that the rise in digital nomad numbers is fostering competition between destinations:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>If Portugal says, “We’re sick of nomads,” and cracks down on visas, Spain can then say, “Oh, come here.” And that will be even more true in low GDP countries.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Silva says digital nomads need to be aware of the impact they have. She is also urging the Portuguese government to take meaningful regulatory action:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The majority of the Airbnbs are from companies controlling multiple properties. We want houses to be places where people can live.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200670/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dave Cook does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The pandemic has seen more and more full-time employees working fully remotely – and seeking out cheaper, warmer places in which to do so. Property price hikes show the impact on local communities.Dave Cook, PhD Candidate in Anthropology, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1937702023-01-02T10:25:42Z2023-01-02T10:25:42ZEurope’s ‘pyroregions’: summer 2022 saw 20-year freak fires in regions that are historically immune, close to normal in fire prone areas<p>Over the summer of 2022, the European “fire season” made headlines, and the burned area was said to be “unprecedented” in many countries. However, an examination of historical climate and fire data provides some important context.</p>
<p>Several conclusions were drawn from the <a href="https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/">European Forest Fire Information System</a> (EFFIS), but this dataset is probably not the most appropriate given that its methodologies are constantly being updated. This hampers the analysis of trends over the historical period or the focus on a specific year.</p>
<p>Satellite images have been used for global and regional analysis due to their <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2019.02.013">spatial and temporal consistency</a>, but they may underestimate fires, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-73-2021">especially small ones</a> (less than 100 ha). However, the data is homogeneous in time, which is important for comparing fire seasons over long periods. In our research, we used thermal anomalies from satellites, a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd2713">near-real-time proxy of fire activity</a>, widely used in previous studies.</p>
<h2>The 2022 European fire season</h2>
<p>Overall, when aggregating European data (see below) and cumulating the number of thermal anomalies from the beginning of the year, 2022 lies above the long-term average but did not exceed the maximum value observed over the last 20 years. For example, cumulative thermal anomalies were much higher in 2003, 2007, 2012 and 2017, indicating that the 2022 fire season lies within the range of the historical period. This suggests that last summer’s fire season was not unprecedented, contrary to the impression conveyed by the media.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491190/original/file-20221023-56678-6lb659.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491190/original/file-20221023-56678-6lb659.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491190/original/file-20221023-56678-6lb659.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491190/original/file-20221023-56678-6lb659.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491190/original/file-20221023-56678-6lb659.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491190/original/file-20221023-56678-6lb659.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491190/original/file-20221023-56678-6lb659.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491190/original/file-20221023-56678-6lb659.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Daily cumulative thermal anomalies across Europe, derived from MODIS Terra/Aqua sensors over the period 2001-2022 (last updated on 31 August 2022). The grey zone corresponds to the standard deviation (the dispersion of the data with respect to the mean) and the dotted lines indicate the maximum and minimum values over the historical period.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What is causing extreme fire seasons?</h2>
<p>Fire is a complex phenomenon that occurs when three conditions are met: there is an ignition source, fuel is available, and the fuel has low moisture. While the influence of the first two ingredients does not change much from one year to another, fuel moisture explains most of the variations in fire activity.</p>
<p>Indeed, extreme fire seasons are usually associated with <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-70069-z">warm climate conditions</a> that dry out the vegetation and create flammable landscapes. Conditions with strong wind may amplify the fire potential, which can be synthesised in the so-called <a href="https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/background/summary/fwi">fire-weather index</a>.</p>
<p>Locally, fires depend on many unpredictable factors. To iron out these uncertainties and capture overall trends, the data has to be aggregated over larger areas, such as continents or countries. However, aggregating fires within geopolitical borders is rarely the most relevant method to assess natural risks. This is particularly true in Europe, which is very diverse in terms of climate, vegetation, and human activities.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491192/original/file-20221023-62307-i70djw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491192/original/file-20221023-62307-i70djw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491192/original/file-20221023-62307-i70djw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491192/original/file-20221023-62307-i70djw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491192/original/file-20221023-62307-i70djw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491192/original/file-20221023-62307-i70djw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491192/original/file-20221023-62307-i70djw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491192/original/file-20221023-62307-i70djw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Distribution of ‘pyro-regions’ representing different fire characteristics across the continent. Regions with more than 80% non-combustible surface (urban and agricultural surface) are shown in grey.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Beyond political classifications, the concept of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s12064-010-0082-z">‘pyroregions’</a> - covering areas with specific fire regimes - provides us with a better lens through which to apprehend fire’s spatial heterogeneity. Pyroregions share similar characteristics, such as fire size, frequency, seasonality, and intensity, which ultimately determine <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00791-4">fire impacts</a>. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://lnkd.in/eiBuG3p3">recent study</a>, we presented a pan-European pyrogeography featuring four distinctive pyroregions across the continent. For instance, the southern Iberian peninsula experiences large but less frequent fires than northern Portugal featuring the highest fire frequency and burned area in Europe. In mountainous and traditionally pastoral regions, such as the Pyrenees, parts of the Alps, and Scotland, burned area can be substantial but originates mostly from winter or spring fires (“cool season” fires) due to pastoral and agricultural activities and normally do not put ecosystems at risk.</p>
<p>These pyroregions do not follow administrative, ecological or climate borders, and can be seen as a practical and straightforward way of describing fire patterns across Europe. Understanding similarities and differences among fire regimes are important to inform fire management and prevention.</p>
<h2>Europe’s 2022 saw freak fires in cooler regions</h2>
<p>From June to August 2022, persistent heatwaves unfurled across parts of northwestern and central Europe, breaking temperature records and fanning flames. This is evident when aggregating fire weather conditions and fire activity in terms of anomalies – deviation from the mean – over the historical period and across pyroregions (see below).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491193/original/file-20221023-62810-a250ri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491193/original/file-20221023-62810-a250ri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491193/original/file-20221023-62810-a250ri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491193/original/file-20221023-62810-a250ri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491193/original/file-20221023-62810-a250ri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491193/original/file-20221023-62810-a250ri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491193/original/file-20221023-62810-a250ri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491193/original/file-20221023-62810-a250ri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Climate and fire anomalies for each pyroregion. Relative difference in the number of active fires from MODIS Terra/Aqua sensors and fire weather index (FWI) with respect to the historical mean (2001-2021) from June to August. The lines indicate the linear relationship between fire and climate anomalies; dashed lines indicate normal conditions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In sum, the year 2022 saw <em>“unprecedented”</em> fires in the <em>low-fire prone</em> pyroregion (the least affected usually), with the highest number of fires detected in the last 20 years; 2022 comes second in the <em>cool-season fire</em> pyroregion, usually subject to winter fires. In contrast, fire activity is close to normal in the <em>highly-fire prone</em> pyroregion in southern Europe, the most fire-prone region.</p>
<p>We think that this specificity – fire occurring mostly in regions that are historically relatively immune – helps to explain the 2022 media portrayals.</p>
<h2>Will global heating remap pyroregions in the future?</h2>
<p>Pyroregions also help simulate future changes of fire patterns as the planet warms. Global warming has been shown to increase the frequency and magnitude of fire weather conditions as observed during 2022.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10512410.1">new study</a> (not yet peer reviewed), we found an increase in fire across Europe under global warming. The findings are in line with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13595-020-00933-5">previous research</a> that projects an increase across southern Europe. For instance, we found an increase in the burned area exceeding 50% across the northern Iberian Peninsula beyond 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels. Our analysis also showed large increases in fire frequency, intensity, fire-season length, and percentage of large fires.</p>
<p>Projections indicate an expansion of fire-prone pyroregions in southern Europe, ranging from 50% to 130% under 2°C and 4°C global-warming scenarios. Under the 4°C scenario, an increase in the burned area, fire intensity, and lengthening of fire period up to three months in some parts of the Balkans, northern Iberian Peninsula, Italy, and western France. In the absence of mitigation or adaptation measures, this expansion may overwhelm national fire suppression capacities and cause substantial social and ecological impacts. </p>
<p>Finally, the abandonment of certain traditional agricultural practices, such as extensive livestock farming, are increasing the forest area and the quantity of biomass available for fire in southern Europe. This phenomenon, combined with urban sprawl and the development of wildland-urban interfaces, will inevitably increase our exposure to fire.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193770/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luiz Felipe Galizia works for AXA Climate.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>François Pimont, Julien Ruffault, Renaud Barbero et Thomas Curt ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur poste universitaire.</span></em></p>The forest fires that struck the Continent in the summer of 2022 were devastating, yet historical data shows that they were not ‘unprecedented’, contrary to media accounts.Luiz Felipe Galizia, PhD, InraeFrançois Pimont, Ingénieur de recherche, spécialiste des incendies de forêts, InraeJulien Ruffault, Chercheur postdoctoral sur les incendies de forêts, InraeRenaud Barbero, Chercheur en climatologie, InraeThomas Curt, Directeur de recherche en risque incendie de forêts, InraeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1847652022-06-09T14:22:01Z2022-06-09T14:22:01ZWhy a new eurozone crisis now looks a distinct possibility<p>The European Central Bank (ECB) has confirmed speculation that it will become the latest central bank to start raising headline interest rates to try to ward off inflation. The bank is to raise rates by 0.25 points to 0.25% for lending and -0.25% for deposits, with plans for another rise at the next meeting in September. It will also curtail its programme for buying the government bonds of countries like Italy and Greece by not increasing purchases every month overall. </p>
<p>All major economies are struggling with the difficulties of trying to deal with inflation by raising interest rates in the knowledge that it will drive up borrowing costs for consumers and businesses and potentially bring about a recession. </p>
<p>But for the eurozone, the situation is complicated by the fact that it has been propping up indebted countries who can’t deflate their currencies to get through economic turbulence. If the ECB now gets too tough on inflation, it could create a market panic that might revive the eurozone crisis of the 2010s. </p>
<h2>Stagflation is back</h2>
<p>The global outlook for inflation and global economic stability has <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/088d3368-bb8b-4ff3-9df7-a7680d4d81b2">significantly deteriorated</a> in the last few months. In 2021 inflation <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/05/feds-evans-sees-inflation-falling-below-2percent-target-after-current-rise-subsides.html">headed upwards</a> as global demand recovered after the pandemic but <a href="https://obr.uk/box/the-economic-effects-of-supply-bottlenecks/">supply chains</a> couldn’t keep up – not least because of <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/59882774">China’s zero COVID policy</a>. Rising energy prices were a major part of the problem. </p>
<p>Many central bankers thought this <a href="https://theconversation.com/inflation-why-its-temporary-and-raising-interest-rates-will-do-more-harm-than-good-172329">was temporary</a>, and indeed when inflation <a href="https://data.oecd.org/price/inflation-cpi.htm">started to ease</a> in most developed economies in the second half of 2021, this seemed right. But the Russian invasion of Ukraine has both broken the decades-long peace in Europe, and brought three decades of a “<a href="https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-moderation">great moderation</a>” in prices to an end. Thanks to the extra pressure on oil and energy prices, inflation is many countries is now rising ahead of economic growth.</p>
<p>Inflation is also starting to weigh on the global economy in various ways. People have less money, so they can’t buy as much. And investors are more worried about the outlook, so they are more reluctant to invest. The prospects for global economic growth have significantly slowed since February. For example, the World Bank has <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-07/stagflation-danger-sees-world-bank-cut-global-growth-outlook">just downgraded</a> its forecast for the third time in six months, and currently predicts 2.9% growth in 2022. </p>
<h2>The effect on government bonds</h2>
<p>In view of this situation, investors have also been offloading corporate and government bonds. They fear that the prospects for debt defaults are higher than before, and the returns (yields) on bonds look even worse than before now that inflation is so high. Bond prices have duly been falling, which means that yields (interest rates) have been rising because they are inversely related. </p>
<p>The yields on eurozone countries’ debt have been <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/financial_markets_and_interest_rates/euro_area_yield_curves/html/index.en.html">rising sharply</a>, meaning it is becoming more expensive for them to borrow. Just like in the 2010s, the most pressure is on the countries whose public finances are the most unwieldy, such as Italy and Greece. But even Germany, which has been the bedrock of eurozone fiscal prudence and has enjoyed negative yields (also known as free borrowing) for most of the last three years, has also seen a <a href="https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/germany-10-year-bond-yield-historical-data">significant rise</a>. </p>
<p><strong>Eurozone sovereign bond yields 2012-22</strong> </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468026/original/file-20220609-22-w6iof2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing yields of 10-year sovereign bonds" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468026/original/file-20220609-22-w6iof2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468026/original/file-20220609-22-w6iof2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468026/original/file-20220609-22-w6iof2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468026/original/file-20220609-22-w6iof2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468026/original/file-20220609-22-w6iof2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468026/original/file-20220609-22-w6iof2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468026/original/file-20220609-22-w6iof2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">10-year bond yields: Germany = yellow; Greece = turquoise; Italy = blue; Portugal = indigo; France = purple; Spain = orange.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.tradingview.com">Trading View</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The eurozone crisis was caused in the early 2010s when investor fears about the solvency of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland drove their bond yields to levels where they needed ECB support – otherwise, their debts would have become unmanageable and they would likely have had to exit the euro. </p>
<p>This support came in the form of loans; bond-buying programmes from the European Central Bank (ECB) to prop up prices; negative interest rates; “creating” euros via quantitative easing (QE); and reassurances from then president Mario Draghi that the ECB would do “<a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2012/html/sp120726.en.html">whatever it takes</a>” to prevent a collapse. </p>
<p>These measures are the <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2019/html/ecb.sp190612_1%7E1a3bede969.en.html">main reason</a> why bond yields have remained below ruinous levels since the 2010s, with bond-buying support and QE most recently provided early in the pandemic as countries had to borrow even more to cope. The ECB is currently sitting on government bonds from member states worth around €5 trillion (£4.3 trillion), and is currently making net purchases of over €30 billion a month. </p>
<p>Now that yields are surging again, one solution is for the ECB to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/euro-zone-bond-yields-do-an-about-turn-after-us-inflation-data-2022-05-11/">buy even more bonds</a> from these countries. However, it is not that simple because bond-buying underpinned by QE is another reason for inflation rising. Indeed, one of the other arguments in favour of these moves in the 2010s was to ward off deflation, which is not a valid justification now that inflation is so high. Bond-buying now would be a violation of the ECB’s strategy aiming for <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2021/html/ecb.pr210708%7Edc78cc4b0d.en.html">2% inflation</a>. </p>
<p>Were it to drive up inflation, that would make the economic outlook even worse. This could cause further sell-offs in bonds that would push yields higher. </p>
<p>Instead, the ECB is following the likes of the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England and doing the opposite. The danger with increasing interest rates and ending bond-buying is that it will hurt the economy, which could make investors more worried about the outlook and force bond yields even higher. Indeed, yields have just surged after the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/bf9820b2-f65b-4d22-b72d-e5a4f56f9c4e">ECB signalled</a> that it was potentially open to doing a 0.5 percentage points hike in rates in September, in a sign of how precarious this situation is. </p>
<p>In sum, the ECB is facing a strange dilemma, where every policy choice will potentially raise the risks of a repeat of the eurozone crisis of the 2010s. Inflation is a delicate business, which is why the Austrian economist Fridrich von Hayek <a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2021/february/inflation-a-tiger-by-the-tail-speech-by-andy-haldane.pdf?la=en&hash=78C0DB3A631A7B9E2DF6EFBCFE9B3D138D87C449">compared it</a> to trying to “catch a tiger by its tail”. </p>
<p>If inflation starts to fall as growth deteriorates, the eurozone may somehow avoid another crisis because it will then be easier to do more QE and buy more bonds. But in the meantime, all eyes will be on the bond yields of countries like Italy and Greece to see how high they rise.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184765/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Muhammad Ali Nasir does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As the European Central Bank announces its first increase in interest rates, investors are getting very nervous.Muhammad Ali Nasir, Associate Professor in Economics, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1663632021-09-01T14:42:51Z2021-09-01T14:42:51ZSmall seashells tell a big story of slavery and transoceanic trade 500 years ago<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418451/original/file-20210830-19-19k2jae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Money cowries (Monetaria moneta) retrieved from the São Bento.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mudzunga Munzhedzi (2019). KwaZulu-Natal Museum</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the archaeology storerooms of the <a href="https://www.nmsa.org.za/">KwaZulu-Natal Museum</a> in Pietermaritzburg, South Africa, lie two boxes filled with seashells.</p>
<p>The shells form a bright and shiny mass that makes a satisfying, almost metallic sound when you run your fingers through them. The entire sample weighs 18.7 kg and comprises approximately 16,500 individual shells.</p>
<p>They are money cowries, from <em>Monetaria moneta</em>, a species of sea snail native to the tropical waters of the Indian Ocean. </p>
<p>Money cowries are natural objects – each shell is a trace of an animal’s life. They were also, as their common name suggests, <a href="https://www.citeco.fr/10000-years-history-economics/the-origins/cowry-shells-a-form-of-currency">circulated widely</a> as a kind of currency. </p>
<p>The KwaZulu-Natal Museum specimens were found among the remains of a sunken ship lying at the mouth of the Mzikaba river in what is today South Africa’s Eastern Cape province.</p>
<p>The remains were long thought to be of the <a href="https://collections.rmg.co.uk/collections/objects/148344.html">Grosvenor</a>, wrecked in 1782. But in the early 1980s they were <a href="https://www.sahumanities.org/index.php/sah/article/view/43">identified</a> as the wreck of the São Bento, a 16th century Portuguese vessel. The São Bento sailed from Portugal to India in 1553, where it loaded a new cargo to take on its journey homeward. It departed from the port of Cochin in February 1554 with goods destined for trade into Europe and West Africa.</p>
<p>The ship encountered rough and stormy conditions and was probably too heavily laden – greed and risk played a significant role in the Portuguese trading venture. By April the São Bento was struggling around the south-eastern corner of Africa. It drifted onto a reef-and-island cluster adjacent to the shoreline and broke up in the rough surf.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418230/original/file-20210827-17822-wsut8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418230/original/file-20210827-17822-wsut8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418230/original/file-20210827-17822-wsut8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418230/original/file-20210827-17822-wsut8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418230/original/file-20210827-17822-wsut8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418230/original/file-20210827-17822-wsut8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418230/original/file-20210827-17822-wsut8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418230/original/file-20210827-17822-wsut8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Mzikaba estuary, showing Mzikaba island, beyond which is the reef where the cannons were found. KwaZulu-Natal Museum photographic archive. Photographer unrecorded (1986).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">KwaZulu-Natal Museum</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It would be centuries before the wreck was investigated; in the late 1960s, divers formed an amateur salvage and research group to explore what remained. Numerous items were accessioned into the KwaZulu-Natal Museum’s archaeology collection, including beach finds such as ceramic sherds and carnelian beads, and bronze cannons recovered from beyond the reef. </p>
<p>The cache of money cowries was found during conservation work in the deepest recesses of the barrel of one of the cannons. The shells were packed tightly into the barrel, as if stashed there in secret. They probably represent a small (possibly pilfered) fraction of a much larger shipment that would have been swept away by the current after the accident.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418232/original/file-20210827-15869-warw6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418232/original/file-20210827-15869-warw6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418232/original/file-20210827-15869-warw6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418232/original/file-20210827-15869-warw6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418232/original/file-20210827-15869-warw6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418232/original/file-20210827-15869-warw6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418232/original/file-20210827-15869-warw6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The large muzzle-loading cannon from the São Bento that the cowries were lodged in for over four centuries (far left). KwaZulu-Natal Museum archaeology collection. Photograph: Justine Wintjes (2020).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">KwaZulu-Natal Museum</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Their presence, as I have outlined <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23277408.2020.1826849">in my research</a>, tells a richly layered, unavoidably dark story about the West African slave trade. Through the story of the cowries, at least some small part of this history may become more tangible.</p>
<h2>“Human-cowrie conversion”</h2>
<p>Money cowries were used for thousands of years as currency across the Indo-Pacific world, but introduced into Atlantic commercial networks relatively late. The Maldives was a major source, with its <a href="http://mrc.gov.mv/en/publications/show/commercial-exploitation-reef-resources-examples-of-sustainable-and-non-sustainable-utilization-from-">large-scale, sustainable money cowrie industry</a>. </p>
<p>In the 1550s cowries were still a relatively new commodity for Europeans, and they were destined primarily for trade with West Africa. The Atlantic market picked up swiftly and billions of money cowries from the Indian Ocean were shipped to the Bight of Benin on the West African coast between the 16th and 19th centuries. </p>
<p>Cowries were exchanged directly for slaves throughout all centuries of the sea-borne trade of slaves out of West Africa. Nigerian archaeologist, anthropologist and historian Akinwumi Ogundiran <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3097620">describes</a> this trade in terms of a “human-cowry conversion”. </p>
<p>Exact numbers are impossible to calculate, but at a possible rate of around 6 kg of cowries (5000–6000 shells) for one slave, the São Bento cache could have been used to purchase three slaves.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-long-view-sheds-fresh-light-on-the-history-of-the-yoruba-people-in-west-africa-162776">A long view sheds fresh light on the history of the Yoruba people in West Africa</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<hr>
<p>The São Bento cowries had another intimate association with slaves: according to the <a href="https://books.google.co.za/books?id=NpYcAAAAMAAJ&pg=PA218">report</a> by survivor and chronicler Manuel de Mesquita Perestrelo, slaves made up around two-thirds of the ship’s 470 passengers. This mention is intriguing because little is known of the transport of slaves around the southern tip of Africa in the 16th century. The Indian Ocean slave trade is far older than the Atlantic system, but it is a neglected area of history. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/exploring-the-indian-ocean-as-a-rich-archive-of-history-above-and-below-the-water-line-133817">Exploring the Indian Ocean as a rich archive of history – above and below the water line</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Early Portuguese shipwrecks with oriental cargoes like the São Bento could contribute to our understanding of this deeper history of slavery, and the relationship between the two ocean worlds.</p>
<h2>Entanglement</h2>
<p>More research might determine where the São Bento slaves came from, and even what it meant to be a slave in this context. Whatever the specific situation for the São Bento slaves, the sinking of the ship might have opened other options up for them. Ultimately only 23 people were rescued by a Portuguese ivory-trading vessel at the end of a gruelling 800 km walk from the wreck site to Delagoa Bay on the southeast coast of Mozambique. Just three of them were slaves.</p>
<p>Despite its sinking, then, the entanglement between slaves and cowries was so fundamental that the São Bento still effected a kind of human-cowrie conversion: three surviving slaves shipped out of Delagoa Bay half a year after the accident for three slaves’ worth of salvaged cowries bequeathed to a museum over four centuries later.</p>
<p>There’s another kind of entanglement at play, too. Cowries were not just currency: they began to serve as a raw material in West Africa for making art. Among the Yoruba, <a href="https://www.artsbma.org/collection/shrine-ile-ori-or-house-of-the-head/">Ori shrines</a> which facilitate the realisation of self-hood came to be constructed from large numbers of cowries. Even in this re-purposed context, the confluence with Ori bound cowries to a person’s destiny.</p>
<h2>A vast legacy</h2>
<p>Now as museum objects in South Africa, the brightness of the São Bento cowries in their boxes seems at odds with the heaviness they carry from their historical association with human slavery. This unsettling lightness is amplified by the sinister elusiveness of the specifics of this story, reminiscent of histories of slavery more generally. Irrecoverable, hidden, unspoken, and yet such a vast legacy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166363/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Justine Wintjes works at the KwaZulu-Natal Museum, where the São Bento cowries are housed and some are on display. The research this article is based on arose from the workshop 'Ilha de Moçambique: Thinking Oceanically / Pensando a Partir do Oceano' hosted by Oceanic Humanities for the Global South and Kaleidoscopio in 2019. </span></em></p>Money cowries were used for thousands of years as currency across the Indo-Pacific world but introduced into Atlantic commercial networks relatively late.Justine Wintjes, Curator, KwaZulu-Natal MuseumLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1615482021-06-08T16:17:04Z2021-06-08T16:17:04ZHow the pandemic changed abortion access in Europe<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404901/original/file-20210607-28372-ner0ja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C22%2C4928%2C3231&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protesters took to the streets in Poland to protest the country's crackdown on abortion access. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:02020_0691_Protest_against_abortion_restriction_in_Krak%C3%B3w,_October_2020.jpg">Silar</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Abortion access has never been equal in Europe. The right to terminate an unwanted or unviable pregnancy varies from Malta, where the procedure is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/11/like-ireland-on-steroids-maltas-abortion-taboo-leaves-women-in-despair">illegal in all circumstances</a>, to the Netherlands, which has some of the <a href="https://www.kit.nl/the-dutch-approach-to-abortion-leading-or-lagging-in-guaranteeing-womens-rights/">most liberal laws</a> on the continent.</p>
<p>The arrival of the pandemic has only accentuated these differences. Faced with lockdowns, border closures and strained health services, the process of accessing proper care became even more complicated for people seeking abortions in 2020. How governments responded to this situation says a lot about their pre-existing stance on reproductive rights.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168851021001329">Our research</a> reviewed changes in policies and protocols relating to abortion access in the EU and the UK. We identified that countries differed based on the extent of policy changes, and the extent of the difficulty in accessing abortion during the pandemic. While some governments were willing to act swiftly to make positive policy changes, others used the crisis as grounds to further restrict access to abortion.</p>
<h2>Improving access</h2>
<p>A number of countries facilitated abortion access during the first year of the pandemic. They introduced policy changes that included one or a combination of several measures: introducing telemedicine, facilitating early medical abortion by allowing home-use of abortion pills, extending the gestational limit for early medical abortion and eliminating mandatory visits or waiting periods.</p>
<p>The use of telemedicine improved access to health practitioners during lockdown, as well as reducing the risk of contracting Covid-19 for patients and providers alike. Several countries relied extensively on telemedicine to replace face-to-face visits. This was the case for <a href="https://srh.bmj.com/content/early/2021/04/14/bmjsrh-2021-201093">France</a>, <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/876740/30032020_The_Abortion_Act_1967_-_Approval_of_a_Class_of_Places.pdf">England</a>, <a href="https://gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2020-04/approval-of-a-class-of-place-for-treatment-for-the-termination-of-pregnancy-wales-2020.pdf">Wales</a>, <a href="https://www.sehd.scot.nhs.uk/cmo/CMO(2020)09.pdf">Scotland</a>, <a href="https://srh.bmj.com/content/early/2021/02/22/bmjsrh-2020-200724#T1">Portugal</a>, Germany and <a href="https://srh.bmj.com/content/early/2021/02/22/bmjsrh-2020-200724#T1">Belgium</a>.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.imt.ie/uncategorised/telemedicine-abortion-consultations-permitted-health-minister-27-03-2020/">Ireland</a> and <a href="https://www.aerzteblatt.de/nachrichten/111392/Schwangerschaftsberatung-soll-auch-online-moeglich-sein">Germany</a>, mandatory pre-abortion personal visits were replaced by remote consultations, while the same was done for post-abortion check-ups in Portugal.</p>
<p>Another way to improve access was to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0168851020302785?via%3Dihub">facilitate early medical abortion at home</a>. While pre-pandemic abortion regulations in France, England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland allowed home-use for the abortion pill misoprostol only, these countries took a step further during the pandemic and allowed <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-56580861">both</a> <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.fr/entry/pourquoi-la-france-devrait-maintenir-livg-par-teleconsultation-au-dela-de-la-pandemie-blog_fr_6076c128e4b001befb6eb2c7">pills</a> (mifepristone and misoprostol) to be used <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/coronavirus-gp-visits-regarding-abortions-to-take-place-remotely-1.4223488">at home</a>, supervised by medical professionals through telemedicine.</p>
<p>Abortion medication was <a href="https://www.bpas.org/abortion-care/abortion-treatments/the-abortion-pill/remote-treatment/">made available by post</a> in England, Wales and Scotland, while in France it can now be acquired in pharmacies.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404904/original/file-20210607-23-1ypr15i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Close up of hands holding a packet of Mifepristone" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404904/original/file-20210607-23-1ypr15i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404904/original/file-20210607-23-1ypr15i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404904/original/file-20210607-23-1ypr15i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404904/original/file-20210607-23-1ypr15i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404904/original/file-20210607-23-1ypr15i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404904/original/file-20210607-23-1ypr15i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404904/original/file-20210607-23-1ypr15i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">More countries made mifepristone available for home use during the pandemic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/92599314@N00/46193283361">Robin Marty</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Gestational limits for early medical abortion were also extended in several countries. <a href="https://www.sehd.scot.nhs.uk/cmo/CMO(2020)09.pdf">Scotland</a> prolonged it from 10 weeks to 11 weeks and six days of gestation, while <a href="https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20200411-france-extends-access-to-abortions-during-covid-19-pandemic">France</a> extended access to early medical abortion at home from seven to nine weeks of pregnancy. <a href="https://www.ippfen.org/news/italy-new-rules-medical-abortion-breakthrough-reproductive-freedom">Italy</a> followed suit by also increasing the gestational limit from seven to nine weeks for early medical abortion, and eliminated mandatory hospitalisation for the procedure.</p>
<h2>Restricting access</h2>
<p>On the other end of the spectrum, several European countries took actions that severely disrupted abortion access or blocked it entirely during the pandemic. The governments of Poland and <a href="https://balkaninsight.com/2020/07/13/right-power-slovakia-mulls-new-laws-limiting-abortion/">Slovakia</a> initiated legislation changes aimed to restrict access, while in <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-europe-abortion-idUSKBN27W11P">Romania</a> and <a href="https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1163688/lithuanian-health-minister-tells-women-to-reconsider-having-abortion">Lithuania</a> the procedure was not declared as essential healthcare, allowing the possibility for hospitals to simply refuse interventions during the pandemic, which many of them did.</p>
<p>Poland has one of the <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/justice-home-affairs/news/abortion-rights-an-open-wound-in-many-european-countries/">most restrictive abortion laws</a> in the EU. Along with Malta, it is one of the two EU member states where abortion on request or broad social grounds is not allowed. Prior to the pandemic, <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/gender/2020/06/24/when-covid-19-becomes-a-political-ally-polands-law-on-abortion/">abortion was legal</a> in cases of foetal abnormality, risk to the mother’s health, and pregnancy resulting from rape or incest.</p>
<p>In the wake of the Covid-19 crisis, Polish parliament debated the “Stop Abortion” legislative proposal, attempting to restrict access to abortion care by eliminating foetal abnormality as legal grounds for the procedure. A huge public outcry came as a response to this initiative in the form of massive <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/14/poland-holds-virtual-protests-against-abortion-bill-during-covid-19-lockdown">online protests in April 2020</a>, accusing the Polish government of taking advantage of the pandemic to pass this controversial bill.</p>
<p>On 22 October 2020, the Polish Constitutional Tribunal <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54642108">confirmed</a> that abortions on the grounds of foetal abnormality are no longer considered constitutional – its ruling came into effect on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/27/poland-to-implement-near-total-ban-on-abortion-imminently">27 January 2021</a>.</p>
<p>Keeping in mind that that abortions on these grounds represented <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=26434&LangID=E">nearly 98%</a> of all procedures in Poland in 2017, this ruling almost completely blocks abortion access to women in the country. It triggered <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/30/pro-choice-supporters-hold-biggest-ever-protest-against-polish-government">protests</a> of more than 100,000 people in Warsaw.</p>
<h2>Where do we go from here?</h2>
<p>Our analysis shows the many different ways governments responded to the need to provide abortions during a pandemic. But with Covid-19 far from over, and future pandemics impossible to rule out, it’s important to think about how a government should respond when faced with this kind of health crisis.</p>
<p>We recommend several important measures that governments should pursue to ensure that abortion remains accessible during (and beyond) the pandemic.</p>
<p>First, categorising abortion as essential healthcare is crucial, given its time-sensitive nature. In many countries, healthcare services during the pandemic were limited to essential and urgent procedures. While some explicitly included abortions among these (France, England and Wales, Scotland, Ireland, Italy, Spain, Portugal), others failed to do so (Germany, Austria, Croatia, Romania), or even claimed that abortions are not essential procedures (Slovakia and Lithuania).</p>
<p>The second important measure is facilitating early medical abortion where possible. Abortion access was easier in countries where early medical abortion was already common before the pandemic. Denmark, Sweden, Finland or Estonia, where medical abortion represents the vast majority of early abortion procedures, did not have to go through major changes in policy and protocols because access was already guaranteed.</p>
<p>Third, policy makers should remove obstacles to timely and secure abortion access and to prioritise telemedicine. Mandatory waiting periods, counselling visits, hospital stays or efforts to obtain necessary justifications for abortion present significant hurdles for women. Some of the countries eliminated these obstacles temporarily and we urge them to consider making these changes permanent when possible. <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/home-use-of-both-pills-for-early-medical-abortion/home-use-of-both-pills-for-early-medical-abortion-up-to-10-weeks-gestation">England</a>, <a href="https://consult.gov.scot/population-health/early-medical-abortion-at-home/">Scotland</a> and <a href="https://gov.wales/sites/default/files/consultations/2020-12/termination-of-pregnancy-arrangements-in-Wales_1.pdf">Wales</a> have already taken initiatives in this direction, and organised public consultations on whether to keep the pandemic abortion provisions in place permanently.</p>
<p>Finally, communication of protocols and policies needs to be clear, detailed and easy to find. There is much room for improvement here – we found that not many countries had explicit instructions on what a woman can do if she needs an abortion during a pandemic.</p>
<p>Europe’s experience with Covid-19 should serve as a valuable lesson for policy makers, who should continue looking for appropriate solutions that will ensure abortion access and protect women’s lives.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161548/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Some countries made abortion access easier during the pandemic. Others used it as an excuse for a crackdown.Jovana Stanisljevic, Associate professor, Grenoble École de Management (GEM)Neva Bojovic, Assistant professor, Kedge Business SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1615032021-06-03T15:04:18Z2021-06-03T15:04:18ZHow young Santomean immigrants in Portugal deal with identity and language<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403590/original/file-20210531-27-1xyyz7e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Street mural by Nomen in Quinta do Mocho, Lisbon, to highlight immigrant experiences in Portugal.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">PATRICIA DE MELO MOREIRA/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>‘My teacher always tells me, “Ah Clara, Clara, Claaaara, you have to speak like <em>this</em>!"’</p>
<p>Clara is a young Santomean woman who immigrated to Portugal to pursue her senior high school education. She grew up in <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Sao-Tome-and-Principe">São Tomé and Príncipe</a>, a group of islands in the Gulf of Guinea in West Africa. She was a key participant in my <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15348458.2021.1878359">study</a> on this immigrant experience.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.worldhistory.org/article/1763/the-portuguese-colonization-of-sao-tome-and-princi/">Colonised</a> by the Portuguese in the 1490s, the islands <a href="https://oxfordre.com/africanhistory/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190277734.001.0001/acrefore-9780190277734-e-183">became independent</a> in 1975. The new republic adopted Portuguese as its sole official language. </p>
<p>Today, Portuguese is the language spoken by over 98% of the Santomean population. The remainder are mostly elders who speak one of four creole languages. In post-colonial times, Portuguese universities have continued to receive students from the Portuguese-speaking countries of Africa.</p>
<p>Clara speaks Portuguese as her first and only language. But, she says, her teachers often comment on the way she speaks it. European Portuguese and Santomean Portuguese are very similar. They could be likened to British and American English. For example, there are some differences in vocabulary, pronunciation and sentence structure. </p>
<p>The fact that Clara’s Portuguese teacher picks her out about her pronunciation is not surprising. It reflects the idea that one variety of language is superior to others. This has implications for people’s identify and sense of self.</p>
<p>In my <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15348458.2021.1878359">study</a> I found that a crucial issue for Santomean students who immigrate to Portugal is that identifying as both Portuguese native speakers and as Black Africans means negotiating two potentially conflicting identities – in a place where most native speakers are white. This means they also have to adapt to deal with racism. </p>
<h2>Forming identities</h2>
<p>As a sociolinguist, my <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15348458.2021.1878359">research</a> set out to explore the use of Santomean Portuguese among young immigrants in Portugal and how this is linked with their identity. </p>
<p>How do Santomeans in Portugal negotiate being both native speakers of Portuguese and Black Africans? Answering this question is key to understanding the role that language plays in racial boundary-making and identity processes.</p>
<p>To address the question, I conducted in-depth interviews with 18 Santomean immigrant youth (7 women and 11 men) in two towns in Central Portugal. Clara was one of them. </p>
<p>Identity is created at multiple levels at the same time. It becomes meaningful only when we engage in processes called alignment (Do I identify with this person?) and authentication (Is this real and genuine?). For example, think about your school or peer group experience and the different cliques that exist – the nerds, the popular kids, the jocks, the loners. All acquire meaning in relation to the other groups. </p>
<p>So how do Santomeans in Portugal self-identify? My research showed that young Santomeans identified on three levels: their language use and practices, racial categorisation, and the PALOP social category. </p>
<p>"PALOP” stands for <em>Países Africanos de Língua Oficial Portuguesa</em>, which means Portuguese-speaking countries of Africa. It refers to the six African countries in which Portuguese is an official language – Angola, Cabo Verde, Guinea Bissau, Mozambique, São Tomé and Príncipe, and Equatorial Guinea. Santomeans use this term to describe people from these countries.</p>
<p>I examined each level of identity formation. </p>
<h2>Language use and practices</h2>
<p>One could say that Santomeans linguistically align with Portuguese nationals since they speak the same language. But from a Portuguese perspective, the variety of Portuguese spoken by the African students is problematic. For the Santomeans a poor command of the language is often considered to be one of the main elements that hinders their success at school. Not being understood by the Portuguese is detrimental to Santomeans’ integration. </p>
<p>But many Santomeans found strategies to be understood by the Portuguese. The most common is imitation, highlighted by one of the participants in the study: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>We have to speak in a way that they… like, try to imitate them so they can understand us.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But even so, Santomeans said they were frequently reminded that they spoke differently based on three main characteristics: slang words, speech rate and a different pronunciation of the r-sounds. </p>
<p>Based on these elements, Santomeans did not feel that they aligned with Portuguese nationals even though they spoke the same language.</p>
<h2>Racial categorisation</h2>
<p>When it comes to racial categorisation, Santomeans did not align with the Portuguese either, but with other African students.</p>
<p>For Santomeans, the racial conversations and practices in Portugal differed from their experiences back home. The focus in São Tomé was not on the common Black/white distinction, but rather on distinctions among local ethnolinguistic groups (groups unified by both a common ethnicity and language). All these groups identified as Black. </p>
<p>A few of the Santomean participants expressed how strange and uncomfortable it was for them to be part of a visible minority in Portugal. Santomeans in Portugal learnt that they were seen as Black, and what this meant in a dominantly white society. This process was mainly derogatory, as there are few benefits of being Black in Portugal.</p>
<h2>Portuguese-speaking countries of Africa</h2>
<p>Finally, there was the positioning of identity through the social category of belonging to an African Portuguese-speaking country. Here the affiliation was not as clear-cut. </p>
<p>Sometimes, Santomeans included themselves in the category and sometimes they didn’t. Santomeans often referred to <em>Países Africanos de Língua Oficial Portuguesa</em> students as being Portuguese-speaking Africans who also have a home language other than Portuguese. The Santomeans I interviewed lived together with Guineans and Cabo Verdeans, most of whom spoke a <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/creole-languages">creole</a> as their first language. </p>
<p>In contrast, most young Santomeans typically didn’t have a common language other than Portuguese. As such, Santomeans didn’t always align with other members of the category of belonging to an African Portuguese-speaking country in relation to language use.</p>
<h2>Why this matters</h2>
<p>These findings reflect two main divisions: authentic versus inauthentic speakers of Portuguese; and white versus Black individuals. </p>
<p>What does this mean and why does it matter? </p>
<p>Beliefs, likely perpetuated since colonial times, indicate that “authentic” speakers of Portuguese are white individuals, and “inauthentic” speakers of Portuguese are Black individuals. But Santomeans are Black individuals and speak Portuguese as their first (and often only) language. Therefore, young immigrant Santomeans in Portugal have to adapt to align with different categories according to their needs. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-dimensions-of-human-inequality-affect-who-and-what-we-are-137296">How the dimensions of human inequality affect who and what we are</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>My findings served to highlight the importance of race in the process of identity formation among these Santomeans. It creates challenges which can result in lower achievement in school and lower chances of good employment. Santomeans in Portugal learn that they are being seen as Black, and discover what this means in a dominantly white society.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161503/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marie-Eve Bouchard received funding from the Swedish Wenner-Gren Foundations and the Department of Romance Studies and Classics at Stockholm University. </span></em></p>Students from São Tomé and Príncipe must negotiate being both native speakers of Portuguese and Black Africans. And how they speak Portuguese is perceived as an issue.Marie-Eve Bouchard, Assistant professor, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1543522021-02-02T11:08:48Z2021-02-02T11:08:48ZCoronavirus: why is Portugal being hit so hard?<p>Good news about COVID vaccines has been in abundance in the past few weeks. In the meantime, though, the pandemic continues to accelerate globally, with Europe accounting for <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/weekly-epidemiological-update---27-january-2021">34% of new cases worldwide</a>. One country in particular has been hit hard: Portugal. </p>
<p>Looking at the last two weeks’ data, Portugal has both the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/portugal?country=%7EPRT">highest case rate</a> (16,829 per million people) and death rate (340 deaths per million people). These numbers exceed both the UK (case rates 6,480, death rate 250 per million) and the US (case rates 6,920, death rate 131 per million) by a considerable margin. Portugal’s neighbour, Spain, also has lower numbers (case rates 10,500 and deaths 107 per million). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381793/original/file-20210201-15-9uka5e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing Portugal's COVID case rate climbing much higher than that of Spain or UK (detailed in previous paragraph)." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381793/original/file-20210201-15-9uka5e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381793/original/file-20210201-15-9uka5e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381793/original/file-20210201-15-9uka5e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381793/original/file-20210201-15-9uka5e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381793/original/file-20210201-15-9uka5e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381793/original/file-20210201-15-9uka5e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381793/original/file-20210201-15-9uka5e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Biweekly COVID-19 cases per million people for selected countries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Our World in Data</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-portugal-idINKBN2A122S">Nearly half</a> of Portugal’s COVID deaths were reported in January, and the country’s health system is on the brink of collapse. Several European nations, including Germany and Austria, are stepping in to help.</p>
<h2>Early success</h2>
<p>It’s an unfortunate turnaround for a country that handled the early stages of the pandemic so well. Portugal was quick to deploy interventions, including imposing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/19/swift-action-kept-portugals-coronavirus-crisis-in-check-says-minister">a full national lockdown</a> when there were a few hundred recorded cases in the country. (Spain only locked down when they had several thousand known cases.)</p>
<p>A contributing factor for the recent increases may well have been the <a href="https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/COVID-19-risk-related-to-spread-of-new-SARS-CoV-2-variants-EU-EEA-first-update.pdf">relaxing of restrictions</a>, such as allowing people to mix more. And if there is a baseline level of infectious disease, then an increase in case numbers will follow.</p>
<p>Notably, the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/portugal?country=%7EPRT">recent upward trajectory</a> points to population mixing taking place over the festive period. On December 28, Portugal case rates were 4,484 per million people, their lowest point in recent times and around a quarter of what they are now, a month later. These increases will reflect transmission over the festive period. </p>
<p>Christmas was an <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-a-pandemic-winter-christmas-is-simply-not-that-important-151058">accident waiting to happen</a>.</p>
<h2>Perfect storm</h2>
<p>The so-called UK variant (B117) has been <a href="https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/COVID-19-risk-related-to-spread-of-new-SARS-CoV-2-variants-EU-EEA-first-update.pdf">increasingly detected</a> in Portugal in recent weeks, which may have added to the perfect storm of factors that have led to the record-breaking numbers we now see. This variant is <a href="https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_31_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England_update_1.pdf">more transmissible</a>, and <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nervtag-paper-on-covid-19-variant-of-concern-b117">perhaps also more lethal</a>.</p>
<p>To add to the misery, the healthcare system is extremely understaffed, with over <a href="https://www.publico.pt/2021/01/22/sociedade/noticia/covid19-10600-profissionais-saude-estao-infectados-1947565/amp">22,000 healthcare workers</a> in Portugal having tested positive for COVID since the start of the pandemic. Over 10,000 are currently infected and unable to work. According to Público, the healthcare workers most affected by COVID, in absolute numbers, are the workers who have the most contact with the sick.</p>
<p>Historically, infections transmitted in hospitals has been <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/health_glance_eur-2018-45-en.pdf?expires=1612122873&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=375EC3417669531112FDD138E911D10D">very high</a> in Portugal compared with other wealthy countries. Perhaps we are observing that here during the pandemic.</p>
<p>On January 15, Portugal imposed another <a href="https://www.visitportugal.com/en/content/covid-19-measures-implemented-portugal">national lockdown</a>. This includes the closures of non-essential services such as gyms, barbershops and museums. This intervention should very soon start to be reflected by reductions in the new daily cases.</p>
<p>There are some <a href="https://www.visitportugal.com/en/content/covid-19-measures-implemented-portugal">limited restrictions</a> on international travel, for example, with the UK and Portugal eyeing each other’s caseloads with suspicion and banning flights between the two countries. However, connections with other countries seem to be relatively relaxed, which runs the risk of importing new cases and possibly new variants. </p>
<p>These new cases would probably be few, but then COVID reached all corners of the globe in a few months, with a just a handful of imported cases into each country. It seems to me to be a risky approach at this point in time, and a requirement for all inbound travellers to quarantine should be the policy.</p>
<p>In Portugal, a proactive approach at the start of the pandemic appears to have become a reactive one in recent weeks. The vaccine rollout is progressing slowly. When you get behind the curve, it’s very difficult to then overtake the virus.</p>
<p><em>Correction: An earlier version of this article said that “23,000 doctors in Portugal” have tested positive for COVID. It should have said “over 22,000 healthcare workers in Portugal”.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154352/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Head has previously received funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the UK Department for International Development.
</span></em></p>Nearly half of Portugals COVID deaths occurred in January.Michael Head, Senior Research Fellow in Global Health, University of SouthamptonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1508062020-12-10T13:36:42Z2020-12-10T13:36:42ZOregon just decriminalized all drugs – here’s why voters passed this groundbreaking reform<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374023/original/file-20201209-21-1aik374.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=30%2C7%2C5111%2C3423&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">According to Oregon law, possessing a small amount of drugs for personal consumption is now a civil – rather than criminal – offense. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/teenage-schoolgirl-reaching-for-cocaine-in-her-back-royalty-free-image/1132980785?adppopup=true">Peter Dazeley via Getty</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Oregon became the first state in the United States to decriminalize the possession of all drugs on Nov. 3, 2020. </p>
<p><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Measure_110,_Drug_Decriminalization_and_Addiction_Treatment_Initiative_(2020)">Measure 110</a>, a ballot initiative <a href="https://www.klcc.org/post/election-preview-measure-110-would-make-oregon-1st-state-decriminalize-drug-use">funded by the Drug Policy Alliance, a nonprofit advocacy group backed in part by Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg</a>, passed with more than 58% of the vote. Possessing heroin, cocaine, methamphetamine and other drugs for personal use is no longer a criminal offense in Oregon. </p>
<p>Those drugs are still against the law, as is selling them. But possession is now a civil – not criminal – violation that may result in a fine or court-ordered therapy, not jail. Marijuana, which Oregon legalized in 2014, remains fully legal.</p>
<p>Oregon’s move is radical for the United States, but several European countries <a href="https://www.loc.gov/law/help/decriminalization-of-narcotics/decriminalization-of-narcotics.pdf">have decriminalized drugs to some extent</a>. There are three main arguments for this major drug policy reform. </p>
<h2>#1. Drug prohibition has failed</h2>
<p>In 1971, President Richard Nixon declared drugs to be “public enemy number one” and launched a “<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2012/03/the-war-on-drugs-how-president-nixon-tied-addiction-to-crime/254319/">war on drugs</a>” that continues today.</p>
<p>The ostensible rationale for harshly punishing drug users is to deter drug use. But decades of research – including <a href="http://tupress.temple.edu/book/20000000009196">our own on marijuana</a> and <a href="https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/drugs-and-drug-policy/book258916">drugs generally</a> – has found the <a href="https://www.vera.org/publications/for-the-record-prison-paradox-incarceration-not-safer">deterrent effect of strict criminal punishment to be small</a>, if it exists at all. This is especially true among young people, who <a href="http://www.monitoringthefuture.org/pubs/monographs/mtf-vol2_2019.pdf">are the majority of drug users</a>. </p>
<p>This is partly due to the nature of addiction, and also because <a href="https://nij.ojp.gov/topics/articles/five-things-about-deterrence">there are simply limits to how much punishment can deter crime</a>. As a result, the U.S. has both <a href="https://www.sentencingproject.org/criminal-justice-facts/">the world’s highest incarceration rate</a> and <a href="http://www.espad.org/sites/espad.org/files/TD0116475ENN.pdf">among the highest rates of illegal drug use</a>. Roughly <a href="https://www.prisonpolicy.org/reports/pie2020.html">1 in 5 incarcerated people in the United States is in for a drug offense</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=dNcNUjn4UQEC&oi=fnd&pg=PP9&dq=Crime+in+the+Making:+Pathways+and+Turning+Points+Through+Life.&ots=UfXRYQfehU&sig=jAyUyb68tCm1Bw9dXXtlyUlXPro#v=onepage&q=Crime%20in%20the%20Making%3A%20Pathways%20and%20Turning%20Points%20Through%20Life.&f=false">Criminologists find</a> that other consequences of problematic drug use – such as harm to health, reduced quality of life and strained personal relationships – are more effective deterrents than criminal sanctions. </p>
<p>Because criminalizing drugs does not really prevent drug use, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3342518?seq=1">decriminalizing does not really increase it</a>. Portugal, <a href="https://time.com/longform/portugal-drug-use-decriminalization/">which decriminalized the personal possession of all drugs in 2001</a> in response to high illicit drug use, has <a href="https://www.emcdda.europa.eu/system/files/publications/11331/portugal-cdr-2019_0.pdf">much lower rates of drug use than the European average</a>. Use of cocaine among young adults age 15 to 34, for example, is 0.3% in Portugal, compared to 2.1% across the EU. <a href="https://www.emcdda.europa.eu/system/files/publications/11331/portugal-cdr-2019_0.pdf">Amphetamine and MDMA consumption is likewise lower in Portugal</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373956/original/file-20201209-13-1k3fxx5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Woman with a dog waits at a white van while a man drinks from a tiny cup" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373956/original/file-20201209-13-1k3fxx5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373956/original/file-20201209-13-1k3fxx5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373956/original/file-20201209-13-1k3fxx5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373956/original/file-20201209-13-1k3fxx5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373956/original/file-20201209-13-1k3fxx5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373956/original/file-20201209-13-1k3fxx5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373956/original/file-20201209-13-1k3fxx5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A mobile drug-services van in Lisbon gives out methadone, a medication for people with opioid use disorder, in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/patient-rita-pestana-holds-her-puppy-while-her-husband-news-photo/857614826?adppopup=true">Horacio Villalobos - Corbis/Corbis via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. Decriminalization puts money to better use</h2>
<p>Arresting, prosecuting and imprisoning people for drug-related crimes is expensive. </p>
<p>The Harvard economist Jeffrey Miron estimates that all government drug prohibition-related expenditures <a href="https://www.cato.org/publications/tax-budget-bulletin/budgetary-effects-ending-drug-prohibition">were US$47.8 billion nationally</a> in 2016. Oregon spent about $375 million on drug prohibition in that year. </p>
<p>Oregon will now divert some the money previously used on drug enforcement to pay for <a href="https://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/politics/2020/10/16/oregon-2020-election-ballot-measure-110-decriminalize-drug-possession/3620146001/%22%22">about a dozen new drug prevention and treatment centers</a> statewide, which has been <a href="http://www.justicepolicy.org/uploads/justicepolicy/documents/04-01_rep_mdtreatmentorincarceration_ac-dp.pdf">found to be a significantly more cost-effective</a> strategy. Some tax revenue from <a href="https://www.bizjournals.com/portland/news/2019/07/25/oregon-cannabis-tax-revenue-gets-higher-and-higher.html">recreational marijuana sales</a>, which exceeded $100 million in 2019, will also go to addiction and recovery services. </p>
<p>Oregon <a href="https://www.oregonlegislature.gov/citizen_engagement/Reports/2019-OCJC-SB1041-Report.pdf">spent about $470 million on substance abuse treatment</a> between 2017 and 2019.</p>
<p>Not everyone who uses drugs needs treatment. Decriminalization makes help accessible to those who do need it – and keeps both those users and recreational users out of jail.</p>
<h2>3. The drug war targets people of color</h2>
<p>Another aim of decriminalization is to mitigate the significant <a href="https://www.sentencingproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Disparity-by-Geography-The-War-on-Drugs-in-Americas-Cities.pdf">racial and ethnic disparities associated with drug enforcement</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373973/original/file-20201209-17-i30jco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Black and whit image of police arresting a Black man in a New York subway station; no faces are seen" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373973/original/file-20201209-17-i30jco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373973/original/file-20201209-17-i30jco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373973/original/file-20201209-17-i30jco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373973/original/file-20201209-17-i30jco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373973/original/file-20201209-17-i30jco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373973/original/file-20201209-17-i30jco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373973/original/file-20201209-17-i30jco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New York’s ‘stop and frisk’ policing most often resulted in marijuana possession charges and targeted young Black men. It was declared unconstitutional in 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/saw-this-young-man-being-stopped-in-nyc-subway-by-two-news-photo/185494998?adppopup=true">Third Eye Corporation/Getty</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Illegal drug use is <a href="https://www.samhsa.gov/data/sites/default/files/cbhsq-reports/NSDUHNationalFindingsReport2018/NSDUHNationalFindingsReport2018.pdf">roughly comparable across race</a> in the U.S. But people of color are significantly more likely to be <a href="https://ag.ny.gov/pdfs/OAG_REPORT_ON_SQF_PRACTICES_NOV_2013.pdf">searched</a>, <a href="https://www.drugabuse.gov/about-nida/noras-blog/2020/06/message-director-racially-motivated-violence">arrested and imprisoned for a drug-related offense</a>. Drug crimes can incur long prison sentences.</p>
<p>Discretion in drug enforcement and sentencing means prohibition is among the <a href="https://newjimcrow.com/">leading causes of incarceration of people of color in the United States</a> – an injustice <a href="https://www.cato.org/multimedia/daily-podcast/bipartisan-drug-policy-reform">many Americans on both sides of the aisle</a> increasingly recognize. </p>
<p>Freed up from policing drug use, departments may redirect their resources toward crime prevention and solving <a href="https://thecrimereport.org/2015/06/24/2015-06-reinventing-american-policing-a-seven-point-blueprin/">violent crimes like homicide and robbery</a>, which are time-consuming to investigate. That could help restore some trust between law enforcement and Oregon’s communities of color. </p>
<h2>Risks of decriminalization</h2>
<p>One common concern among Oregonians <a href="https://www.opb.org/article/2020/10/15/measure-110-oergon-politics-decriminalize-drugs/">who voted against decriminalization</a> was that lessening criminal penalties would endanger children. </p>
<p>“I think it sends a really bad message to them, and influences their perception of the risks,” James O’Rourke, a defense attorney who helped organize the opposition to measure 110, <a href="https://www.opb.org/article/2020/10/15/measure-110-oergon-politics-decriminalize-drugs/">told Oregon Public Broadcasting in October</a>.</p>
<p>But U.S. states that legalized marijuana haven’t seen adolescent use rise significantly. In fact, marijuana consumption among teens – <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/add.14939">though not among college-aged Americans</a> – actually <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2737637">declined in some states with legal marijuana</a>. This may be because legal, regulated marijuana is more difficult for minors to get than black-market drugs. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373955/original/file-20201209-13-pm4j84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Woman browses various types of marijuana in glass jars on shelves, in well-lit, upscale setting" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373955/original/file-20201209-13-pm4j84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373955/original/file-20201209-13-pm4j84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373955/original/file-20201209-13-pm4j84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373955/original/file-20201209-13-pm4j84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373955/original/file-20201209-13-pm4j84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373955/original/file-20201209-13-pm4j84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373955/original/file-20201209-13-pm4j84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Customers must be 21 or older to purchase marijuana from dispensaries like Oregon’s Finest, in Portland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/woman-shops-at-oregons-finest-a-marijuana-dispensary-in-news-photo/491438512?adppopup=true">Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Research also shows that for some people, particularly the young, banning a behavior <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4675534/">makes it more alluring</a>. So defining drugs as a health concern rather than a crime could actually make them less appealing to young Oregonians.</p>
<p>Another worry about decriminalization is that it will attract people looking to use drugs. </p>
<p>So-called “drug tourism” <a href="https://www.economist.com/europe/2009/08/27/treating-not-punishing">hasn’t really been a problem for Portugal</a>, but it happened in Switzerland after officials in the 1980s and 1990s began officially “ignoring” heroin in Zurich’s Platzspitz Park. People came from across the country to <a href="https://theculturetrip.com/europe/switzerland/articles/a-brief-history-of-zurichs-needle-park/">inject heroin in public, leaving discarded needles on the ground</a>. </p>
<p>The local government shut down Platzspitz Park. But rather than chase off or arrest those who frequented it, it began offering methadone and prescription heroin to <a href="https://ssir.org/articles/entry/inside_switzerlands_radical_drug_policy_innovation">help people with opioid use disorder</a>. Public injection, HIV rates and overdoses – which had all become a problem in Zurich – <a href="https://www.northcarolinahealthnews.org/2019/01/21/switzerland-couldnt-stop-drug-users-so-it-started-supporting-them/">plummeted</a>. </p>
<p>Certain parts of Oregon already have higher rates of public drug consumption, namely Portland and Eugene. Because public drug use is still illegal in Oregon, however, we don’t expect a Platzspitz Park-style open drug scene to emerge.
These places should benefit from the expansion of methadone programs and other medication-assisted treatment, which is endorsed by the <a href="https://www.ama-assn.org/delivering-care/opioids/ama-push-better-access-opioid-use-disorder-treatments">American Medical Association</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theolympian.com/opinion/editorials/article247180921.html">If neighboring Washington state decriminalizes drugs</a>, which it is considering, the chances of drug tourism would drop further. </p>
<p>[<em>The Conversation’s science, health and technology editors pick their favorite stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-favorite">Weekly on Wednesdays</a>.]</p>
<h2>Upside – and downside</h2>
<p>There are risks with any major policy change. The question is whether the new policy results in a net benefit. </p>
<p>In Portugal, full decriminalization has proven more humane and effective than criminalization. Because drug users don’t worry about facing criminal charges, those who need help are more likely to seek it – and <a href="https://www.opensocietyfoundations.org/uploads/52ff6eb9-76c9-44a5-bc37-857fbbfedbdd/drug-policy-in-portugal-english-20120814.pdf">get it</a>. </p>
<p>Portugal’s <a href="https://www.emcdda.europa.eu/system/files/publications/11364/20191724_TDAT19001ENN_PDF.pdf%22%22">overdose death rate is five times lower than the EU average</a> – which is itself <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db356.htm">far lower than the United States’</a>. HIV infection rates among injection drug users also <a href="https://www.emcdda.europa.eu/system/files/publications/11331/portugal-cdr-2019_0.pdf">dropped massively</a> since 2001.</p>
<p>These policies show that problem drug use is a public health challenge to be managed, not a war that can be won.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150806/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Possessing heroin, cocaine, meth and other drugs for personal use is no longer a criminal offense in Oregon. The idea is to get people with problem drug use help, not punishment.Scott Akins, Professor, Sociology Department, Oregon State UniversityClayton Mosher, Professor, Sociology Department, Washington State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1514172020-12-04T16:56:10Z2020-12-04T16:56:10ZChildren’s climate change case at the European Court of Human Rights: what’s at stake?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373061/original/file-20201204-19-1lfc5v8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C7%2C4758%2C3155&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Inacio Rosa / EPA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The European Court of Human Rights finally has the opportunity to take on climate change. And it is taking it seriously, thanks to a group of 8 to 21-year-olds.</p>
<p>In September 2020, four children and two young adults from Portugal – all witness to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/parts-of-spain-and-portugal-are-more-than-46-heres-what-is-going-on-101136">extreme heat and wildfires</a> that have ravaged their home region – submitted a historic <a href="https://youth4climatejustice.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/GLAN-ECtHR-Application.pdf">complaint</a> to the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), the top institution dealing with human rights violations in Europe. Their complaint is against 33 European countries.</p>
<p>In a nutshell, the plaintiffs claim that they face unprecedented risks to their lives and livelihoods and accuse the defendants of contributing to climate change and failing to take any effective measures against it. This, the plaintffs say, violates their rights to life, privacy and non-discrimination under the <a href="https://www.echr.coe.int/documents/convention_eng.pdf">European Convention on Human Rights</a>. On November 30, the ECHR made <a href="https://twitter.com/SamVarvastian/status/1333339890977828864">headlines</a> by <a href="https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/eng#%7B%2522itemid%2522:%5B%2522001-206535%2522%5D%7D">asking</a> the defendant countries to respond to the complaint.</p>
<h2>A wave of climate action</h2>
<p>This is just one recent instance in a <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Global-trends-in-climate-change-litigation_2020-snapshot.pdf">growing global wave</a> of high-profile climate cases against governments around the world. Over the past 12 months, top courts in the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/20/dutch-supreme-court-upholds-landmark-ruling-demanding-climate-action">Netherlands</a>, <a href="https://www.thejournal.ie/supreme-court-climate-case-ireland-5164687-Jul2020/">Ireland</a>, <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org/international/press-release/43390/swiss-federal-court-human-rights-climate-crisis-health/">Switzerland</a>, and <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org/international/press-release/45643/norwegian-supreme-court-set-to-rule-in-climate-case/">Norway</a> have all had to deal with rights-based climate cases. A <a href="https://peoplesclimatecase.caneurope.org/">similar case</a> against the European Union is also currently pending in the EU Court of Justice. And the ECHR itself has to deal with <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org/international/press-release/45545/climate-seniors-to-sue-switzerland-before-the-european-court-of-human-rights/">another climate case</a>, this time brought by a group of elderly Swiss women against the government of Switzerland. </p>
<p>But the Portuguese young people’s climate case takes things to a completely new level. The magnitude of their complaint is unprecedented in that it goes after <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/each-countrys-share-co2-emissions">some of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters</a>, including France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Russia, Turkey and the UK. The stakes are very high. But so are the risks.</p>
<p>The ECHR normally considers only those complaints that were previously brought before national courts. This is the so-called “exhaustion of domestic remedies” admissibility criterion, set in <a href="https://www.echr.coe.int/documents/convention_eng.pdf">Article 35.1</a> of the European Convention on Human Rights. But in this case, the plaintiffs filed their complaint directly to the ECHR without first going through the Portuguese national courts. </p>
<p>The Portuguese young people argue that the 33 countries have shared international responsibility for contributing to climate change, and going through a lengthy and costly litigation in national courts is not the appropriate avenue. The nature of their complaint is much closer to the <a href="https://www.kcet.org/shows/earth-focus/16-children-await-un-decision-as-youth-climate-movement-recalibrates">transnational action</a> by a group of children, including Greta Thunberg, currently pending before the United Nations Committee on the Rights of the Child.</p>
<h2>A priority case</h2>
<p>So, what does the ECHR’s November 30 announcement really mean? Quite a lot. First, by not immediately tossing out the case as inadmissible, the court has indicated its potential willingness to consider its merits. This is significant – only <a href="https://www.echr.coe.int/Documents/Stats_annual_2019_ENG.pdf">a small percentage</a> of complaints to the ECHR make it to this stage. But not only that. The court also announced that it will deal with the case as a matter of priority according to Article 41 of the <a href="https://www.echr.coe.int/documents/rules_court_eng.pdf">Rules of the Court</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>In determining the order in which cases are to be dealt with, the Court shall have regard to the importance and urgency of the issues raised on the basis of criteria fixed by it. The Chamber, or its President, may, however, derogate from these criteria so as to give priority to a particular application.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The fact that the ECHR considers its first climate case to be so important and urgent as to require the fast-track procedure is quite telling. As is the fact that in its communication, the court went beyond the complaint by requesting the defendant countries also provide information on the potential violations of the right not to be subjected to torture or to inhuman or degrading treatment, and of the right to property. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373063/original/file-20201204-17-17tqg8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Tram station with sign saying 'Droits de l'Homme'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373063/original/file-20201204-17-17tqg8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373063/original/file-20201204-17-17tqg8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373063/original/file-20201204-17-17tqg8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373063/original/file-20201204-17-17tqg8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373063/original/file-20201204-17-17tqg8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373063/original/file-20201204-17-17tqg8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373063/original/file-20201204-17-17tqg8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">All aboard: the ECHR is based in Strasbourg, France.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">MDart10 / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Courts all around the world have been inclining towards greater consideration of climate change in their cases for some time now. Some of the most recent wins include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>An <a href="https://www.thejournal.ie/supreme-court-climate-case-ireland-5164687-Jul2020/">order</a> by the Irish supreme court in July, quashing a toothless national climate change mitigation plan.</p></li>
<li><p>A <a href="https://www.edo.org.au/2020/11/05/court-rules-bushfire-survivors-can-present-climate-evidence-in-case-against-nsw-epa/">ruling</a> by the New South Wales Land and Environment Court in Australia, requesting expert testimony on climate change in a case brought by bushfire survivors against the environmental protection authrities.</p></li>
<li><p>A <a href="https://ecojustice.ca/pressrelease/victory-young-ontarians-prevail-over-ford-governments/">ruling</a> by Canada’s Superior Court of Justice, allowing a children’s case against the province of Ontario’s weak emissions reduction targets to proceed.</p></li>
<li><p>A November 19 <a href="https://www.conseil-etat.fr/en/press-releases/greenhouse-gas-emissions-the-government-must-justify-within-3-months-that-the-reduction-path-to-2030-can-be-achieved">order</a> of Conseil d'État – the French Supreme Administrative Court – giving the government three months to justify the achievability of the country’s commitments to reduce emissions.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>In their complaint to the ECHR, the Portuguese young people referred to the <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/report/production-gap-report-2019">2019 UN Production Gap Report</a>, measuring the discrepancy between the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming goal</a> and countries’ planned production of fossil fuels. </p>
<p>Just two days after the ECHR announcement, the <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/press-release/worlds-governments-must-wind-down-fossil-fuel-production-6-year">2020 edition</a> was published. The latest report confirms that the world is nowhere near being on track to achieving the critical transition from fossil fuels that would prevent disastrous climate change. It may well be that the fate of these plaintiffs now rests in the hands of the ECHR.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151417/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sam Varvastian does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Six Portuguese youngsters say 33 countries have violated their human rights by causing climate change.Sam Varvastian, PhD Researcher, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1401322020-06-05T13:58:50Z2020-06-05T13:58:50ZMadeleine McCann: Investigation was flawed from the start, says senior detective who was there<p>News that a 43-year-old German man is now the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52914016">prime suspect</a> in the Madeleine McCann case appears – at last – to be a significant development. </p>
<p>The information from the German authorities and the Metropolitan Police Service indicates that in May 2007 this man was living and frequenting Praia da Luz, Portugal, and possibly committing burglaries at holiday complexes to fund his itinerant lifestyle. It also appears that as a teenager he was convicted of sexual offences against children in Germany and was therefore a known convicted sex offender in 2007.</p>
<p>This raises several questions: was he known to the Portuguese investigation team at the time? If so, when did his name enter their system and what did they do to implicate or eliminate him from their enquiry? When was his name passed on to the UK investigation team? These are questions at the forefront of my mind as I think back to my time in Portugal.</p>
<p>Madeleine McCann had been <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/madeleine-mccan-disappearance-timeline-suspect-paedophile-germany-a9547621.html">missing for several days</a> when I arrived in Praia da Luz in May 2007. I had been sent to Portugal as part of the UK’s Child Exploitation Online Protection Centre (CEOP) response to Madeleine’s disappearance. I was a detective superintendent and senior investigating officer (SIO) with knowledge about predatory child sexual abusers and non-familial child abduction.</p>
<p>After being briefed at the British Consulate regarding Madeleine’s disappearance, I met with Gerry and Kate McCann at their holiday apartment and we discussed the Portuguese police investigation strategy and possible scenarios that could have led to their daughter’s disappearance. Understandably, the McCanns were trying to come to terms with the situation they found themselves in. </p>
<p>During our discussion, Gerry asked me directly if I thought his daughter was still alive, and I pointed out that if she had been abducted – statistically – she would by now be dead. The majority of children who are murdered after being abducted by someone unknown to them are <a href="http://www.actionagainstabduction.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Taken.pdf">dead within three to six hours</a>. It was a difficult conversation, but I was struck by how focused the McCanns remained throughout. </p>
<p>The following day I went to the police station in Praia da Luz and spoke with several of the lead Portuguese investigators. They were all very polite but it was clear from their attitude and response that they didn’t welcome what they considered to be UK interference in a Portuguese crime. At that time, they were also receiving advice from Leicestershire Police (the McCanns’ home police force) supported by the then UK National Police Improvement Agency (NPIA).</p>
<p>From the outset I was struck by the lack of urgency surrounding the investigation and it was difficult to establish any detailed information around what direction the investigation was taking. Over the next few days, whenever I suggested certain courses of action that they might wish to consider, the Portuguese police either dismissed it out of hand or I was informed that it had already been done without result.</p>
<h2>Flawed investigation</h2>
<p>As the days went by, I became more and more frustrated and I relayed this back to CEOP in my telephone conversations and daily written reports. After ten exasperating days avoiding the growing media presence, trying to get and impart information and having meetings cancelled at the last minute because investigators were too busy, it was still unclear to me whether many of the key investigative tasks had been adequately completed. </p>
<p>For example, I had serious misgivings about the quality of the search strategy, the recording of full-time and casual staff at the holiday complex, identification of all known suspected and convicted sex offenders living or frequenting the area, and other significant or relevant crimes in the local area.</p>
<p>My professional opinion was that the Portuguese investigative approach to Madeleine’s disappearance was flawed and not fit for purpose when set against what we would have been done in a similar investigation in the UK. This was reflected time and time again in my verbal and written reports and the “<a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/news/madeleine-investigation-a-fiasco-as-bungling-portuguese-police-fail-to-send-crucial-documents-to-6657234.html#gsc.tab=0">fiasco</a>” was regularly reported on in the press. </p>
<p>Disappointingly, as the investigation progressed there was also a certain amount of inter-agency rivalry between the UK agencies involved, which resulted in a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/sep/01/british-police-competition-harmed-madeleine-mccann-investigation-home-office-report">fraught working relationship</a>.</p>
<h2>‘Golden hours’ wasted</h2>
<p>In the years since Madeleine’s disappearance, I have also <a href="https://www.policeprofessional.com/news/missing-madeleine-mccann-inter-force-%C2%91trust-co-operation-and-understanding%C2%92-iss">raised my concerns</a> as to whether agencies across Europe are still any better prepared for these types of investigations.
When an investigation team doesn’t gather information or act in a timely and systematic fashion, the investigation gets away from them and this dramatically reduces the chances of the crime being solved.</p>
<p>My experience then, and even more so now having studied the behaviour of non-familial child abductors and murderers in-depth as a criminologist, is that the first 24 to 48 hours of a child abduction investigation – often referred to as the “golden hours” – are critical to its successful outcome. It requires strong, dynamic leadership supported by clear defensible decision making. </p>
<p>This must be backed up by systems and structures designed to collect and evaluate information quickly. At the same time, information must be retained in a manner so that it can be revisited at appropriate times as the investigation moves forward and alternative lines of enquiry are considered.</p>
<p>Non-familial child abduction attracts vast amounts of media attention. High-profile cases often attract national media coverage and cases where the child is murdered become, what is called in criminology, “<a href="https://academic.oup.com/bjc/article-abstract/44/2/256/562927">mega-homicides</a>”. These cases can attract worldwide attention and generate vast amounts of information. </p>
<p>The potential for this information to overwhelm even the best-prepared investigation agency during the early hours or days of an inquiry is considerable. For this reason, there is a need for a systematic approach to core policing functions to deal with the complexity. And it is vital to have a thorough, well documented investigation strategy. </p>
<p>These investigations also require highly skilled and experienced investigators who have the ability to make defensible decisions based upon reliable information and create investigative strategy and policy that can stand the test of hindsight. A failure to do so can have serious consequences.</p>
<p>Three years after Madeleine’s disappearance, in 2010, I conducted and wrote CEOP’s internal review of the Portuguese investigation, which was subsequently passed to the Home Office. The review contained observations and recommendations that, after <a href="https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/209174/McCanns-seek-joint-Madeleine-review">repeated requests</a> from the McCanns, led to the Met being tasked to establish their own investigation, <a href="https://www.met.police.uk/notices/met/operation-grange/">Operation Grange</a>.</p>
<p>The information timeline, when fully known, may offer clarity and explanations to many of the questions that have been swirling around this case since 2007. But these explanations may also raise more uncomfortable questions about the effectiveness of the initial police inquiry and the competence of the people who led it. I only hope this new information leads to some form of closure for the McCanns.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140132/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Graham Hill does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The detective turned criminologist who was sent to help Portuguese police in 2007 says he had misgivings as to how the most basic of tasks were being carried out.Graham Hill, Visiting Research Fellow, School of Law, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1280192019-12-02T14:11:02Z2019-12-02T14:11:02ZRadio as a form of struggle: scenes from late colonial Angola<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304475/original/file-20191129-95236-1krw2be.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>One August night in 1967 in the village of Mungo in central Angola, the local colonial administrator walked into a bar to buy cigarettes. As he entered, he noticed furtive gestures. The barman, Timoteo Chingualulo, turned down the volume on the radio and Chigualulo’s friend, António Francisco da Silva “Baião,” a nurse at the health delegation, changed the station.</p>
<p>After the administrator left, they returned to the original programming: Radio Brazzaville broadcasting the show <a href="https://books.google.co.za/books?id=XxtNa5hQmacC&pg=PA152&lpg=PA152&dq=radio+angola+Angola+Combatente&source=bl&ots=XukJLj6ITd&sig=ACfU3U3lGGdcwO84EjSFIKSyJyd07twd7Q&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjWnIX2oo_mAhXDrHEKHd9ZBgsQ6AEwCHoECAoQAQ#v=onepage&q=radio%20angola%20Angola%20Combatente&f=false">Angola Combatente</a> (Fighting Angola). The administrator could hear the show from his veranda. He reported this to the police, who arrested the two men – and took the offending radio. </p>
<p>The police found no evidence that the men were members of the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Popular-Movement-for-the-Liberation-of-Angola">Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola)</a>, the liberation movement fighting for independence from Portugal. The movement was responsible for creating Angola Combatente, which was broadcast from Brazzaville in the neighbouring Republic of the Congo. </p>
<p>But, as the police document recounts:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>it is inferred that the accused are partisans of an independent Angola, who, for now, are trying to satisfy their ambition by sending out the Brazzaville broadcasts publicly.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>I heard and read stories like this over and over in interviews and archival research I did on radio and the state in Angola for my new book <a href="https://www.ohioswallow.com/book/Powerful+Frequencies">Powerful Frequencies: Radio, State Power, and the Cold War in Angola, 1931-2002</a>. During research for my previous book <a href="https://www.ohioswallow.com/book/Intonations">Intonations</a>, musicians and others remembered listening in hiding and using the colonial state broadcaster to promote their music. </p>
<p>In Powerful Frequencies, I argue that the colonial state and independent state used radio to project their power. But, like the story of Chingualulo and da Silva, listeners had their own ways of getting and disseminating information and news. Radio broadcasting and listening is not just about content, though. How radio works is as important as what radio says. Technology matters to, but doesn’t determine, how people produce meaning. The history of radio and state in Angola should remind us that the problems of fake news, bots, and infiltrated media ecosystems that make the headlines today have antecedents. They are also human problems that require human solutions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304468/original/file-20191129-95236-qwby2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304468/original/file-20191129-95236-qwby2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304468/original/file-20191129-95236-qwby2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304468/original/file-20191129-95236-qwby2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304468/original/file-20191129-95236-qwby2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304468/original/file-20191129-95236-qwby2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304468/original/file-20191129-95236-qwby2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304468/original/file-20191129-95236-qwby2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The official Angolan broadcaster or Emissora Oficial de Angola under construction between 1963 and 1967.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Fernão Simões de Carvalho</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Clandestine listening</h2>
<p>An <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-13037271">anti-colonial war raged in Angola from 1961 until 1974</a>. This shaped life in the Portuguese territory, including the habits of how Angolans listened to radio.</p>
<p>Many sought out news and information from a variety of sources. The colonial administration censored the local press and radio, controlling for news about the war and the national liberation movements that fought it. People – whether African labourers or black civil servants or white settlers – tuned into national and international broadcasters. The BBC, Radio France Internationale, the Voice of America, and Radio Moscow all broadcast in Portuguese. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.country-data.com/cgi-bin/query/r-11011.html">Portuguese secret police)</a> followed these broadcasts, often transcribing them word for word, calling them “anti-Portuguese broadcasts”.</p>
<p>Angola Combatente or Voz Livre de Angola (the National Front for the Liberation of Angola’s programme broadcast from Kinshasa) worried the secret police and Portuguese military the most. Listening to them could get you arrested. That is what happened to Chingualulo and da Silva. </p>
<p>Many listeners remember hiding out to listen – tucking themselves in small quiet places (under beds or desks) or in empty, open-air ones (soccer fields or rural backyards) – and passing along the information to other supporters of independence and nationalist activists. Some radio listeners recall the thrill of secret listening.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304439/original/file-20191129-95211-ccnmt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304439/original/file-20191129-95211-ccnmt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304439/original/file-20191129-95211-ccnmt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304439/original/file-20191129-95211-ccnmt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304439/original/file-20191129-95211-ccnmt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304439/original/file-20191129-95211-ccnmt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304439/original/file-20191129-95211-ccnmt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304439/original/file-20191129-95211-ccnmt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The author’s latest book on Angolan radio.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ohio University Press</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The records</h2>
<p>In the thousands of pages of transcribed programmes and of police reports related to radio, the secret police and military archives resound with nervousness. Despite winning the ground war, the liberation movement radios, in particular, unnerved Portuguese colonial officials. They speculated that even civil servants and “Europeans” listened. They worried about what they called the “electrifying effects” on listeners of liberation movement broadcasters, whose sounds sizzled across borders. And they proposed jamming the broadcasters but settled on counter-propaganda.</p>
<p>Bouncing electromagnetic waves off the ionosphere in shortwave, what liberation movement broadcasters (and other international radio) gained in distance they lost in quality at the point of reception. </p>
<p>The records I went through included police and military transcriptions that inscribe the fading, the lost sentences, the buzz of atmospheric interference, and the trailing off of sound. </p>
<p>Listeners in the territory, some like Chingualulo and da Silva, amplified the broken messages. Others passed along what they heard, becoming transmitters in their own right. Similar to Algerian listeners of the Voice of Algeria that <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/frantz-fanon/">Frantz Fanon</a> described in <a href="https://groveatlantic.com/book/a-dying-colonialism/">A Dying Colonialism</a>, people in the Angolan territory pieced together choppy sentences, imagining guerrillas in the bush and diplomatic sessions that debated their freedom at the United Nations.</p>
<p>Radio became a form of participating in the struggle. As <a href="http://www.campusincamps.ps/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/fanon-this-is-the-voice-of-algeria.pdf">Fanon</a> wrote:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Claiming to have heard the Voice of Algeria was, in a certain sense, distorting the truth. But it was above all the occasion to proclaim one’s clandestine participation in the essence of the Revolution. It meant making a deliberate choice … between the enemy’s congenital lie and the people’s own lie, which suddenly acquired a dimension of truth. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Canny listeners understood that the liberation movements and the colonial state (in programmes on the Emissora Oficial de Angola/Official Angolan Broadcaster) broadcast propaganda, or what Fanon calls “lies”. </p>
<p>They didn’t believe everything they heard, no matter what the source. But they also understood the stakes: independence or continued oppression under Portuguese rule.</p>
<p><em>Powerful Frequencies: Radio, State Power, and the Cold War in Angola, 1931–2002
by Marissa J. Moorman is published by <a href="https://www.ohioswallow.com/">Ohio University Press</a>. Order your copy over <a href="https://www.ohioswallow.com/book/Powerful+Frequencies">here</a></em>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128019/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marissa J. Moorman received funding from Fulbright Hays and the American Council of Learned Societies for the research on radio in Angola. </span></em></p>The Portuguese colonisers were not the only ones who could use radio for control. A new book tells how popular radio broadcasts from Angola’s liberation fighters were used as weapons in the struggle.Marissa J. Moorman, Associate Professor of History, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1216312019-08-27T20:10:08Z2019-08-27T20:10:08ZTwenty years after independence, Timor-Leste continues its epic struggle<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289151/original/file-20190822-170956-2nk5ph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">original</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Antonio Dasiparu</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>On August 30, Timor-Leste will celebrate the referendum that gave it independence from Indonesia. For the people of this small island, it has been a long battle – one that continues today. You can read our companion story on the island nation’s vexed relationship with Australia <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-was-once-seen-as-a-liberator-in-timor-leste-then-the-fight-over-oil-began-121553">here</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Indigenous myth attributes the high mountain chain that runs like a spine down the centre of the crocodile-shaped island of Timor to Mother Earth’s dying movements when she retreated underground. This mountain chain is more pronounced in the east, in the territory of Timor-Leste, and often protrudes directly down into the sea along the rugged northern coast.</p>
<p>The island is also surrounded by significant waters. To the south are the vast and <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/australia-approves-controversial-oil-and-gas-deal-with-timor-leste">disputed oil reserves</a>. To the north is a deep exchange pathway for warm water moving from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, creating conditions for a major “cetacean migration” highway for 24 different species of whale and dolphin.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/for-timor-leste-another-election-and-hopes-for-an-end-to-crippling-deadlock-96203">For Timor-Leste, another election and hopes for an end to crippling deadlock</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In 1944, the anthropologist Mendes Correa described the Portuguese colony of Timor as a “Babel … a melting pot”, and a diverse mix of traditions is still strongly felt today.</p>
<p>The island is a bridge between the Malay and Melanesian world and has as much in common with Pacific Island cultures as Indonesia. The diverse indigenous societies cross the spectrum of matriarchal and patriarchal organisation.</p>
<p>Women are accorded a sacred status within Timorese cosmology and the divine female element is prominent in much indigenous belief. Female spirits dominate the sacred world, while men dominate the secular world. So, while women may hold power in a ritual context, they generally <a href="https://theconversation.com/east-timor-new-president-same-problems-for-women-6587">do not have a strong public or political voice</a>. But they are fighting to change this and now make up a third of members in the national parliament.</p>
<p>By the early 16th century, Portuguese colonisers arrived in the Spice Islands of which Timor was part. This was the beginning of a colonial relationship now 500 years old. </p>
<p>Revolts by Timorese against Portuguese rule were frequent and bloody. Famous Timorese rebel Dom Boaventura lost an armed uprising against his <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Timorese_rebellion_of_1911%E2%80%9312">Portuguese colonisers in 1911</a>, leaving East Timor to be ruled directly from Portugal by the fascist dictatorship of Salazar for most of the 20th century.</p>
<p>The marginal colony remained neglected and closeted from any modern liberalising trends. But in the early 1970s the Timorese independence movement <a href="https://www.unsw.adfa.edu.au/school-of-humanities-and-social-sciences/timor-companion/fretilin">Fretilin</a>, partly inspired by Dom Boaventura, began to oppose Portuguese colonialism, while developing a revolutionary program that included the emancipation of women.</p>
<p>Rosa “Muki” Bonaparte was one of the founders of the nationalist movement and the leader of its women’s organisation. While Bonaparte participated directly in the struggle against colonialism, she also stood against “the violent discrimination that Timorese women had suffered in colonial society”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-and-timor-leste-settle-maritime-boundary-after-45-years-of-bickering-92834">Australia and Timor Leste settle maritime boundary after 45 years of bickering</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>After the colonial regime collapsed in 1974, <a href="http://www.chegareport.net/chega-10/">a three-week civil war</a>, secretly manipulated by Indonesian military agents, was the precursor to the larger war and invasion to come.</p>
<p>The victors of the civil war, Fretilin, reconstituted the faction of loyal Timorese soldiers serving in the Portuguese Army as resistance army <a href="http://news.navy.gov.au/en/Aug2015/Fleet/2276/Falintil-Day-celebrated-with-close-neighbour.htm#.XV89UZMzb_Q">Falintil</a>. This army, and the civilian resistance, countered the massive and brutal attack of US-and-Australian-backed Indonesian military for 24 years. The horrors were kept as secret as possible, even to the point of covering up the deaths of those trying to report them, such as the “<a href="http://balibohouse.com/history/balibo-five-roger-east/">Balibo 5</a>”. </p>
<p>After the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-14952883">Indonesian invasion</a> of December 7 1975, much of the population of East Timor retreated to the mountains, with the resistance living in free zones for the next three years.</p>
<p>However, in November 1978, the Indonesian campaign of annihilation finally encircled the remaining resistance leadership and 140,000 civilians on Mount Matebian, in the east of the island. Most surrendered. They were placed in prisons and “resettlement camps” where many slowly starved to death. The violence of the 24-year Indonesian occupation affected and traumatised the whole of Timorese society.</p>
<p>After the collapse of the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/28/world/asia/28suharto.html">Suharto dictatorship</a> in Indonesia in 1998, President B.J. Habibie agreed to let the Timorese decide their future in a ballot. In his honour, they recently named a bridge after him.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289157/original/file-20190823-170941-1jziuov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289157/original/file-20190823-170941-1jziuov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=940&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289157/original/file-20190823-170941-1jziuov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=940&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289157/original/file-20190823-170941-1jziuov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=940&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289157/original/file-20190823-170941-1jziuov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1181&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289157/original/file-20190823-170941-1jziuov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1181&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289157/original/file-20190823-170941-1jziuov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1181&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Xanana Gusmao was the key negotiator with Indonesia after the independence ballot.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/EPA/John_Feeder</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Timor’s pre-eminent leader, Xanana Gusmao, was the key negotiator with UN representatives. He conducted negotiations from his prison house in Jakarta where he’d been since 1992, serving a 20-year sentence for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/1999/feb/10/indonesia.easttimor">fighting Indonesian forces in his homeland</a>. He persevered with ballot preparations despite growing Indonesian military and militia violence.</p>
<p>In the August 30 1999 referendum, nearly 80% of East Timorese voted for independence by indicating the blue and green National Council of Timorese Resistance (CNRT) flag on the ballot paper.</p>
<p>Extensive military and militia slayings followed the announcement of the vote. <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/Publications_Archive/archive/TimorLeste">An estimated 1500 East Timorese were killed</a> and more than 250,000 forcibly displaced into Indonesia. About 80% of infrastructure was destroyed. Survivors struggled to feed and look after their families while recovering psychologically from the mayhem.</p>
<p>Stories from the resistance period and 1999 are constantly remembered in Timor-Leste and are hugely significant in the new society. A hierarchy based on past service to the resistance has been established. Pensions and payments to male veterans are one of the biggest expenses for the government.</p>
<p>Anthropologists <a href="https://press-files.anu.edu.au/downloads/press/p160561/pdf/book.pdf">have described</a> an indigenous belief that those who fought and sacrificed “purchased” the nation with their own lives and are owed a living. </p>
<p>Along with celebration there will be much reflection in Timor in the next weeks about the last 20 years of building a nation from “zero” and the 24 years of struggle that came before that. It will consider what they have achieved and what still needs to be done.</p>
<p>Hopefully, Timor-Leste can build a free and fair future for the over 1 million citizens, 60% of them under 18. They include many inspiring, educated young leaders who are ready to take up the responsibility.</p>
<p>As we watch and cheer from the sidelines, we hope for a less eventful and more peaceful future for all Timorese.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121631/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sara Niner visited East Timor as a backpacker in August 1991 and became a solidarity activist for self-determination of East Timor on her return to Australia. She is now a lecturer in the School of Social Sciences at Monash University. Her latest book is Women and the politics of gender in Post-Conflict Timor-Leste (Routledge UK 2017). She is also the editor of To Resist is to Win: the Autobiography of Xanana Gusmão with selected letters and speeches (Aurora Books, Melbourne, 2000) and author of Xanana: Leader of the Struggle for Independent Timor-Leste (Australian Scholarly Publishing, Melbourne, 2009) </span></em></p>Timor-Leste has had a long and violent history of struggle for self-determination, and while there is much to celebrate, there is also still much to do.Sara Niner, Lecturer and Researcher, School of Social Sciences, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1184202019-08-08T13:13:40Z2019-08-08T13:13:40ZGender equality at home takes a hit when children arrive<p>In the early 20th century, American women won the right to vote. Soon, women’s participation in the workforce, education and political life <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0891243210361475?casa_token=PgWe6qUpw8oAAAAA:-OyN7djfUEDeAUPYTfyD4S-Lb4w7VF88wd1PWHVF-hviNbtJ2erWMBX6NhJep6LUjXIudHR4Vqw">all increased dramatically</a>. </p>
<p>This gender revolution took place not just in the U.S., but in many countries throughout the world.</p>
<p>But beginning in 1980, the changes in opportunities, status and attitudes that were closing the gap between men and women <a href="https://thesocietypages.org/socimages/2017/01/23/gender-gaps-and-the-stalled-gender-revolution/">began to slow</a>. Since the mid-1990s, <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/658853">there’s been little change</a>.</p>
<p>Gender equality at home among heterosexual couples has progressed even more slowly than in public life. The family theorist <a href="http://sph.umd.edu/department/fmsc/bio/18819">Frances Goldscheider</a> has argued that the goal of moving women into what has traditionally been men’s territory in the paid labor force is just <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/279057747_The_Gender_Revolution_A_Framework_for_Understanding_Changing_Family_and_Demographic_Behavior">the “first half” of what she calls the gender revolution.</a> </p>
<p>Without progress on the “second half” of that revolution – men picking up an equal share of work at home – other efforts, such as equal pay, won’t be enough to make the work that women and men do equitable.</p>
<p>My colleagues <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=TSLxVR8AAAAJ&hl=en">and I</a> at the World Family Map project collaborated with Goldscheider to understand whether having children made the goal of fairly dividing work at home more elusive.</p>
<p><a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10680-018-09515-8">We found</a>,
<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/30130732?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">consistent with previous research</a>, that having children at home made men and women behave more traditionally. Women cleaned, cooked and cared for the children far more then the men did.</p>
<p>But we also found lots of variation across countries in how much children “traditionalized” couples’ division of labor. We wanted to know why the presence of children mattered more for how couples divided work in some countries – like Finland and Lithuania – than in others – like Norway and Latvia.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286621/original/file-20190801-169680-1olo0xy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286621/original/file-20190801-169680-1olo0xy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286621/original/file-20190801-169680-1olo0xy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286621/original/file-20190801-169680-1olo0xy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286621/original/file-20190801-169680-1olo0xy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286621/original/file-20190801-169680-1olo0xy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286621/original/file-20190801-169680-1olo0xy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How much have women’s rights progressed in the U.S. since the women’s suffrage movement?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://theconversation.createsend.com/campaigns/createSend/snapshot.aspx?cID=94FAC45CD92132F32540EF23F30FEDED">Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Surprising answers</h2>
<p>We looked at how men and women divided their time between paid work, childcare and housework using <a href="https://dbk.gesis.org/dbksearch/sdesc2.asp?ll=10&notabs=&af=&nf=&search=&search2=&db=e&no=5900">the most recent International Social Survey Programme’s data on family and changing gender roles</a>. </p>
<p>The data covers 35 countries representing northern countries as well as relatively wealthy countries in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean. </p>
<p>We looked at several factors that we believed might explain why couples divided up household work the way they do, including <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gnp.pcap.pp.cd">national income</a>, <a href="https://www.ilo.org/global/publications/books/WCMS_242615/lang--en/index.htm">national family policy</a> and <a href="https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-gender-gap-report-2018">national gender equality</a>. </p>
<p>We used the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-gender-gap-report-2018">Global Gender Gap Index</a>, which measures equality in health, education, the labor force and political representation, to measure gaps between men and women in public life. </p>
<p>When we began our analysis we thought that children would be less of a factor in how labor was divided at home in countries with more gender equality in the public sphere.</p>
<p>We were wrong.</p>
<p>In 76% of Northern European childless couples, the women put in equal or more paid hours than the man did and he put in equal or more domestic hours than she did. In other words, 3 out of 4 couples were not gender traditional in their division of labor.</p>
<p>But only 45% of Northern European couples with children practiced a non-traditional division of labor. </p>
<p>In comparison, 31% of childless couples in Central and South America divide labor more equally. But having a child doesn’t change the status quo by much. Just 21% of couples in this region with children divide labor more equally. </p>
<p>Where both partners typically work outside of the home, children typically contribute to a “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/she-the-people/wp/2014/08/06/the-second-shift-at-25-q-a-with-arlie-hochschild/">second shift</a>” much more for women than for men. This means that children present a greater obstacle to a gender revolution in its later stages than one that is just getting underway. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286624/original/file-20190801-169718-1pnp6ag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286624/original/file-20190801-169718-1pnp6ag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286624/original/file-20190801-169718-1pnp6ag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286624/original/file-20190801-169718-1pnp6ag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286624/original/file-20190801-169718-1pnp6ag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286624/original/file-20190801-169718-1pnp6ag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286624/original/file-20190801-169718-1pnp6ag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Parents share work at home differently in different countries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Sweden-Daddy-Leave/b3375115d12c409fbffd8e4be5a8692d/27/0">AP Photo/Niklas Larsson</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A solution?</h2>
<p>The most surprising finding in our analysis was that the loss of momentum toward gender equality differed among countries. We wondered if government policies could be an influence. </p>
<p>Generous parental leave that could be used by either parent didn’t seem to affect things – the workload still broke down into traditional roles if there were children. </p>
<p>Legislation providing fathers with legal protection if they took unpaid parental leave didn’t move the needle, either.</p>
<p>We tested many other policies that didn’t seem effective.</p>
<p>Only one specific family policy stood out: non-transferable paid paternal leave – <a href="https://apolitical.co/solution_article/norways-daddy-quota-means-90-of-fathers-take-parental-leave/">also known as a “father’s quota.”</a></p>
<p>When use-it-or-lose-it paid leave was offered, men participated more at home.</p>
<p><iframe id="siqiS" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/siqiS/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Among couples with children across our 35 countries, 28% practiced a modern division of labor without the father’s quota, and 34% with it. This difference is significant, and its magnitude is almost exactly the same as the change associated with an individual moving to a higher level of education. </p>
<p>Fathers’ quotas emerged in <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/300776296_Norway_The_making_of_the_father's_quota">Norway in 1993</a>. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-35225982">Sweden soon followed suit</a>. By 2012, <a href="https://www.oecd.org/els/family/Backgrounder-fathers-use-of-leave.pdf">fathers’ quotas were also found</a> in Belgium, France, Portugal, Latvia and Japan. </p>
<h2>Forcing changes in cultural norms</h2>
<p>Our data doesn’t tell us why the paternal policies seem to help close the gender gap. </p>
<p>If fathers’ quotas were created by policymakers in response to progressive values – if they simply reflected gender norms rather than changing them – we would expect to see those values reflected in a couples’ division of labor whether or not children were in the household. </p>
<p>But the policy does not impact gender equality in domestic labor among the childless in those countries. About half of childless couples practiced a modern division of labor regardless of whether there was a father’s quota – 49% without, 51% with. </p>
<p>And we can’t prove how a father’s quota influences behavior. </p>
<p>But we know that forces that push men and women into “non-traditional” roles may have lasting results if the rewards of the new behaviors are self-reinforcing. One example: When men enjoy nurturing their children and therefore want to do more of it.</p>
<p>This worked during World War I, when seeing women <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/guides/z9bf9j6#z8rv87h">plow fields, deliver mail, enforce laws, drive buses and assemble munitions</a> countered the stereotypes of women as <a href="http://www.crusadeforthevote.org/naows-opposition">too fragile or disinterested in non-domestic work</a>. </p>
<p>If the gender revolution is stalled or stalling because men are seen as ill suited for domestic work, a paid benefit that makes their paternity leave more of a cultural norm may be the force that changes society’s perceptions and behavior.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118420/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laurie DeRose received support from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Center for Child Health and Human Development grant P2C-HD041041, Maryland Population Research Center.</span></em></p>Does having children make the goal of fairly dividing work at home more elusive?Laurie DeRose, Adjunct Professor, Georgetown UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1146452019-04-01T14:00:12Z2019-04-01T14:00:12ZEngland’s Premier League homegrown talent problem: why it’s time to introduce equivalent of Barcelona B<p>England’s impressive Euro 2020 qualifier victories have confirmed that the country is having a great moment in football. The Lions were unusually confident in both matches, putting five goals past both the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/47675815">Czech Republic</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/47606892">Montenegro</a>. Young English players are also in high demand outside the UK right now: Borussia Dortmund are <a href="https://www.marca.com/en/football/international-football/2019/03/27/5c9bee64e5fdea06568b4578.html">battling</a> to hang on to Jadon Sancho after an eye-catching first full season in the German Bundesliga, while Bayern Munich are among the European clubs <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/47752185">trying to</a> lure his England teammate Callum Hudson-Odoi from Chelsea. </p>
<p>These are signs that England’s youth academies are delivering after years of struggling to catch up with continental rivals, while Sancho’s success at Dortmund is a reminder that English players don’t always have to break into the Premier League to make it to the top. Yet as <a href="http://www.football-observatory.com">this recent report</a> confirms, England still lacks homegrown talent in its top league. This prevents young players from hitting the big time, and it’s getting worse. </p>
<p>Players that grew up in the UK contributed just 35% of playing time in this season’s Premier League, down from 40% in 2009-10. Their proportion of goals fell from 39% to 31%, while player contributions from Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales are now barely in single percentage figures. England manager Gareth Southgate has raised concerns about this on numerous occasions since his team <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-emotional-intelligence-helped-take-a-young-england-team-to-the-brink-of-a-world-cup-final-99792">finished fourth</a> in the Russia World Cup last summer. He <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2018/dec/03/gareth-southgate-condemns-shortage-england-players-premier-league">argues</a> that the lack of first-team football for many of the country’s brightest prospects is narrowing his selection options. </p>
<p>In fact, this is not entirely an English problem. There <a href="http://www.football-observatory.com">has been</a> a steady increase in expat players across Europe’s top divisions, rising from 35% to 40% between 2009 and 2018. Other national coaches, such as Italy’s Roberto Mancini, <a href="https://www.football-italia.net/127496/mancini-not-enough-italians">have voiced</a> concerns, too. Of the major leagues, however, the English Premier League is the most expat of all: 59% compared to Italy’s 54%, Germany’s 49%, Spain’s 39% and France’s 36%. </p>
<h2>The Premier League problem</h2>
<p>The Premier League’s success since its 1992 inception has certainly made it harder for young homegrown players to transition to first-team football at the highest level. In such a competitive league, where clubs have huge funds, managers and football directors always want the best possible “ready to use” talent from around the world. </p>
<p>English membership of the EU single market – we’ll see <a href="https://talksport.com/football/518692/latest-liverpool-champions-chelsea-relegated-hard-brexit-premier-league/">what happens</a> after Brexit – makes it particularly easy to get players from Europe. And with so many continental managers at Premier League clubs working under enormous pressure, it’s only reasonable they sign players they know well. </p>
<p>Southgate for one is not convinced it’s a simple quality problem. As he <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2018/dec/03/gareth-southgate-condemns-shortage-england-players-premier-league">put it</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Nobody can tell me that, if [English] players are good enough, they will come through. That is not true. There are plenty of players who are good enough.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>If so, we must ask what else could be done to boost the chances of aspiring Lions. One major difference between England and certain continental countries is there are no “B” teams of major clubs in lower divisions. In Spain, Portugal, Germany and Ukraine, this makes it easier to integrate young players into a club’s top team. Italy is now trying this too, with <a href="https://www.football-italia.net/126568/juventus-b-make-competitive-debut">Juventus B launching</a> in the country’s third tier, Serie C, this season. </p>
<p>Unlike the reserve teams or under-23 teams common in England, B teams arguably give young players more playing time at a higher competitive level. There are also advantages over England’s system of loaning out players to lesser clubs or of using <a href="https://www.90min.com/posts/5133780-7-premier-league-teams-that-have-established-and-used-feeder-club-relationships">feeder clubs</a> in the way that Liverpool takes players from Genk of Belgium, or Chelsea from Vitesse Arnhem in the Netherlands: being part of the same club structure and training in the same environment arguably allows for enhanced internal mobility and increases the chances for opportunities in the first team. </p>
<p>The potential of B teams also extends to managers: after a difficult start to the season, Benfica replaced Rui Vitoria with B team manager Bruno Lage. Legends like Zinedine Zidane and Pep Guardiola also developed their coaching skills in these secondary set ups, previously managing Real Madrid Castilla and Barcelona B respectively – indeed, Guardiola himself <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2017/01/20/manchester-city-manager-pep-guardiola-calls-premier-league-b/">has made</a> the case for B teams in England in the past. </p>
<h2>The Portuguese experience</h2>
<p>Portugal seems the most visible success story with B teams to date. In 2012, the Primeira Liga clubs were invited to create secondary teams that would be directly entered into the country’s second tier, Ledman Liga Pro, but wouldn’t be eligible for promotion. Porto, Benfica, Sporting, Braga, Vitória SC and Maritimo all took this up. </p>
<p>A recent report by the Portuguese League revealed that nine out of the 23 Portugal players that became European champions at Euro 2016 in France played for their club’s B team as part of their transition into first-team football. Even more noticeably, 20 of the 21 Portuguese players that made the quarter finals in the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/40237981">2017 Under-20 World Cup</a> in South Korea were playing for a B team. It’s also having a big effect in club football: for example, Benfica’s recent 3-0 Europa League victory against Dinamo Zagreb included five players who were in their B team last season. </p>
<p>Introducing this system to England is not without risks. Take <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/45643965">FIFA’s plan</a> to limit the number of players clubs can send out on loan each season to between six and eight: richer clubs may use B teams as an instrument to bypass this new rule. There is a wider danger that other parts of the football ecosystem will suffer if B teams allow major clubs to become even more self-contained. </p>
<p>Critics of this system have also <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/feb/26/pep-guardiola-reserve-teams-championship-spain">made the point</a> that B teams in Portugal and elsewhere can struggle to compete, but that loses sight of the main goal of helping younger players reach the top.
On the whole, the B team system looks like a valuable and growing part of international football that England should think seriously about adopting – especially at a time when Brexit and <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/29361839">UEFA’s Financial Fair Play</a> restrictions will be making clubs reconsider their future options. </p>
<p>Southgate <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2018/dec/03/gareth-southgate-condemns-shortage-england-players-premier-league">has said</a> that where so many of the things that used to be wrong with English football have now been put right, the proportion of homegrown players in the Premier League “is just the missing piece”. If the likes of Manchester City B and Liverpool B were taking part in lower-league fixtures week in week out, this puzzle might finally be completed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114645/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maurizio Valenti has received research funding from UEFA and official support from the Italian and Scottish football associations for a project on women’s football. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francisco Fardilha does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>England’s national team are playing a blinder. Here’s how they take it to the next level.Francisco Fardilha, Doctoral Researcher and Associate Fellow, University of StirlingMaurizio Valenti, Doctoral Researcher in Sport, University of StirlingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1056112018-10-25T13:42:40Z2018-10-25T13:42:40ZBolsonaro’s victory is likely to see Brazil scale down Africa interests<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242100/original/file-20181024-71011-p1gf7n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Brazilian presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro on the campaign trail in Rio.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> FEF-EPA/Marcelo Sayao</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>His first son is a senator for the state of Rio do Janeiro. His second son a municipal councillor in the city of Rio, and his third is a federal deputy for the state of São Paulo. And he himself has served seven terms as deputy and as member of several political parties. </p>
<p>Yet <a href="https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/who-is-jair-bolsonaro-brazil-13470717">Jair Bolsonaro</a>, the favourite candidate for Brazil’s upcoming runoff presidential elections, likes to present himself as a new man who operates outside of the “system”. </p>
<p>The rhetoric of a new man, untainted by the culture of corruption that prevails among the political class, is a powerful device. It’s succeeded in folding the interests of disparate social categories into those of seasoned right wing politicians.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro is candidate for the Social Liberty Party. He’s the author of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/24/planet-populists-brazil-jair-bolsonaro-environment">incendiary pronouncements</a>, happily racist, misogynist and homophobic. The former army captain has managed to coalesce eclectic crowds whose commitment to democracy depends on the exclusion of entire sections of Brazilian society. He has colossal support among Brazil’s prolific evangelical communities. These have re-purposed their religious fervour to passionate hate and the <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2018/08/radicalismo-de-bolsonaro-afasta-parte-dos-evangelicos-afirmam-lideres.shtml">demonising of adversaries</a>.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro assuages the fears of a middle class that feels it’s lost privilege. He also confirms their aversion for Brazil’s internal “others” – namely black Brazilians and various Indian communities. In fact, he promises to keep privilege spaces of university education, residential suburbs and commercial spaces free from poor people. </p>
<p>For Bolsonaro, the choice Brazilians have to make is rather simple: it’s either “prosperity, freedom, family and God” – in other words him, or “the path of Venezuela”. In other words <a href="https://thegoldwater.com/news/39073-Bolsonaro-Prosperity-Freedom-Family-and-God-Or-The-Path-Of-Venezuela">Fernando Haddad’s Workers’ Party</a>.</p>
<p>In the first round of elections, Bolsonaro’s party secured 46% of the total vote. Haddad’s Workers’ party secured 29%. Haddad is routinely the victim of his opponent’s foul mouth. Bolsonaro is a slavery-denialist, who claims that the Portuguese never set foot in Africa and that Africans themselves <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2018/07/portugueses-nem-pisaram-na-africa-diz-bolsonaro.shtml">“delivered” slaves to Brazil</a>. </p>
<p>Needless to say his views on Africa are narrowly informed by the prism of Brazil’s uneasy, strained and unresolved racial question. As a result, his government can be expected to scale back Brazil’s engagements with the continent.</p>
<h2>The end of Lula’s Africa moment?</h2>
<p>Bolsonaro is expected to turn threats by the current administration to close Brazilian embassies in Africa into policies. Cutbacks on <a href="https://www.brasil247.com/pt/247/mundo/232642/Serra-pode-fechar-embaixadas-na-%C3%81frica-e-no-Caribe.htm">scholarships for African students</a> are also expected.</p>
<p>At home he’s expected to put further restrictions on immigration and to withdraw into national priorities. These include Brazil’s economic doldrums, its fractured society, the high levels of crimes and more crucially the <a href="http://diplomaciacivil.org.br/eleicoes-2018-as-propostas-de-haddad-e-bolsonaro-para-politica-externa-e-educacao/">economic recession</a>.</p>
<p>The only area where a Bolsonaro government policy might intersect with previous policy could be the military cooperation and the trade in military equipment.</p>
<p>If little is known about Bolsonaro’s views on foreign policy in relation to Africa, his running mate, General Hamilton Mourão, has been very clear. During a recent speech he criticised Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff’s South-South diplomacy claiming that it had resulted in costly association with “dirtbag scum” countries (African) that did <a href="https://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Brazil-Bolsonaros-VP-Running-Mate-Calls-Africans-Dirt-Bag-20180918-0004.html">not yield any “returns</a>.</p>
<p>Africa was the centrepiece of Lula da Silva’s geopolitical aspirations for Brazilian status in an expanded and reformed multilateralism. In eight years of his presidency he visited 27 African countries over 12 trips. </p>
<p>But Brazil’s Africa moment had already began to fade under Rousseff. The election of Bolsonaro is likely to signal the beginning of the end of Africa-Brazil relations as we know them. It could even mean the end of the five country grouping known as <a href="http://www.brics2018.org.za/what-brics">BRICS</a> as he has promised to review Brazil’s <a href="https://www.as-coa.org/articles/brazil-election-where-jair-bolsonaro-and-fernando-haddad-stand-foreign-policy">participation in the coalition</a>.</p>
<p>Brazil’s relations with Africa have been particularly strong with the Lusophone countries of Mozambique, Angola, Cape Verde, Guinea Bissau, and Sao Tome and Principe. Angola in particular became a springboard in Brazil’s expansion into the South Atlantic <a href="https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/brazil-and-africa-bridge-south-atlantic">beyond the Lusophone world</a>.</p>
<p>Lula da Silva sought to institutionalise the new Global South framework in the form of a biannual Africa South America Summit and also through the <a href="http://www.itamaraty.gov.br/en/politica-externa/mecanismos-inter-regionais/7495-india-brazil-south-africa-ibsa-dialogue-forum">India, Brazil South Africa Dialogue Forum</a>. He doubled Brazil’s diplomatic presence in Africa between 2000 and 2010. By 2010 there were <a href="http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-73292010000300013">39 embassies</a>. Over the same period, <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-muggah/what-is-brazil-really-doi_b_6413568.html">18 African embassies </a>opened in Brasilia.</p>
<p>These various initiatives fed a momentum in Brazil’s rise to global prominence. Brazil was for instance able to get José Graziano da Silva elected Director-General of the UN <a href="http://www.fao.org/home/en/">Food and Agriculture Organisation</a> with the strong support of African countries. </p>
<p>Beyond punctual strategies, Brazil’s engagement with Africa served to enhance its global standing and to buttress Brazil’s ambition to become a leading voice of the Global South.</p>
<h2>Economic strategies</h2>
<p>Brazil’s economic strategies took an expansionist pattern similar to that of other emerging powers. They targeted resources-rich and fast growing economies. Main export destinations were Egypt and Nigeria. Imports come mainly from Algeria and Nigeria. </p>
<p>Between 2000 and 2013, trade between Brazil and Africa expanded from $USD4.3 to <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-muggah/what-is-brazil-really-doi_b_6413568.html">USD$28.5 billion</a>. But it dropped by <a href="https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/brazil-and-africa-bridge-south-atlantic">USD$12.4 billion</a> in 2016 following economic recession and political upheaval in Brazil. </p>
<p>Brazil’s economic engagement with Africa is not without its problems. For instance, the infrastructure giant Odebrecht is at the heart of Operação Lava-Jato (Operation Car War) which exposed the largest corruption scandal in the history of modern democracy. It involved over 200 leaders across the political and business sectors and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-39194395">over USD$2 billion</a>.</p>
<p>Under Bolsonaro, economic ties can be expected to take a different turn. Institutions such as the <a href="https://www.embrapa.br/en/about-us">Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation</a> can be expected to grow in prominence in Africa as he makes a big push for agro-business expansion. This will come with its own set of problems, notably pollution caused by fertilisers and attendant health risks. That, however, is unlikely to deter him.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105611/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Niang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Jair Bolsonaro has very rightwing views likely to put a final nail in the coffin off Brazil’s Africa moment spearheaded by former president Lula da Silva.Amy Niang, Senior Lecturer in International Relations at Wist University, Visiting Professor at the University of Sao Paulo, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1011362018-08-06T13:50:08Z2018-08-06T13:50:08ZParts of Spain and Portugal are more than 46°C – here’s what is going on<p>Wildfires, drought and extreme heat have been the talk of the town and country across Europe this summer. Attention has now turned to Portugal and Spain, where temperatures at the weekend reached <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/1769faec-988d-11e8-ab77-f854c65a4465">more than 46°C</a> in some parts of both countries – close to the all-time European record of 48°C, set in Greece in 1977. Records aside, the obvious question is what is causing the current Iberian heatwave and whether this might be a harbinger of the future.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230770/original/file-20180806-191035-16djmnh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230770/original/file-20180806-191035-16djmnh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230770/original/file-20180806-191035-16djmnh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230770/original/file-20180806-191035-16djmnh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230770/original/file-20180806-191035-16djmnh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230770/original/file-20180806-191035-16djmnh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230770/original/file-20180806-191035-16djmnh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230770/original/file-20180806-191035-16djmnh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Maximum temperatures for August 6, with large areas well into the 40s.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.aemet.es/es/eltiempo/prediccion/temperaturas?dia=hoy&zona=penyb&img=maxima">Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A number of factors can be identified. These include unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, a wandering jet stream and associated “blocking” pattern of high pressure, a very dry land surface, and climate change. </p>
<p>The anomalous size and position of warm water areas in the North Atlantic this summer have shifted the so-called “polar front” northwards. This is the point where warm air from the south meets cold polar air, and any movement in the front will affect the distribution of high and low atmospheric pressure right across the Atlantic. This in turn influences the flow of westerly winds across the Atlantic and over Western and Southern Europe, especially the thin and fast “jet stream” in the upper atmosphere.</p>
<p>This summer, an area of persistent high pressure or “blocking” has become established over Western Europe and the eastern parts of the Atlantic. Such blocking causes the jet stream to appear “lazy” and wander much further north and south than its average position. </p>
<p>The upshot of all of this is that atmospheric blocking and a very snake-like jet stream prevents low pressure systems, and the “bad” weather they bring, from heading eastwards across Western and Southern Europe. In such a situation, the usual fluctuations between good, and not so good, summer weather are largely put on hold. Instead, as Portugal, Spain and much of Europe have experienced, clear skies, lots of heat, and very dry surface conditions become the norm. </p>
<p>In certain circumstances, persistent blocking can even draw in very warm air from elsewhere. This is what happened in Portugal and Spain, after intense heat caused an area of low pressure to form over Iberia. This “heat low” created the conditions for the flow of hot dry air from the Saraha Desert. Currently life in Portugal and Spain is not just in an oven, but more like a convection oven.</p>
<h2>A warmer baseline means hotter extremes</h2>
<p>Heatwaves in Portugal and Spain are not uncommon because this type of extreme weather is characteristic of the hot and dry summers in the Mediterranean climate region. Yet there is <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2013JD020590">convincing observational evidence</a> that heatwaves are happening more frequently across the Iberian Peninsula. Logically the question arises as to what extent the current heat is associated with climate change. </p>
<p>Although answering this question thoroughly would involve undertaking some well-designed climate modelling experiments, it’s safe to say that there is indeed a fair chance the current heatwave is associated with climate change. That is because heatwaves are now happening on a background of rising global temperatures so the base level of background temperature on which extremes are occurring has lifted somewhat compared to pre-industrial levels.</p>
<p>And what of the question on everyone’s parched lips: are the current extremes the “new norm”? The short answer is no, not right now, as extremes of over 46°C still constitute rare events. However, analyses of the pronounced <a href="http://www.nature.com.ezproxy.auckland.ac.nz/articles/nclimate2468.pdf">2003 European heat wave</a>, which affected both Portugal and Spain, indicate that the very similar extremes of August 2003 could be fairly normal by the 2040s.</p>
<p>This of course raises questions as to the habitability of places that already possess harsh summer climates. Most likely their sustainability will depend on the extent to which traditional climate adaptation strategies related to building and lifestyles can be pushed to the limit to cope with a new climate future typified by summers with temperatures in and over the mid 40s and how flexible people and businesses might be to the idea of going elsewhere or literally underground during summer.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101136/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Glenn McGregor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>And how long before such extreme heatwaves become the ‘new norm’ across the region?Glenn McGregor, Professor of Climatology, Durham UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/998292018-07-18T18:46:38Z2018-07-18T18:46:38ZThe US is a whole lot richer because of trade with Europe, regardless of whether EU is friend or ‘foe’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228250/original/file-20180718-142428-1tmzpx7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Trump and Merkel: Friends, foes or frenemies?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Trump-NATO-Summit/cef1edd9372b4fa695463faf2e375518/2/0">AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Donald Trump recently questioned the value of the long-standing United States-Europe alliance. When asked to identify his “biggest foe globally,” <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-interview-cbs-news-european-union-is-a-foe-ahead-of-putin-meeting-in-helsinki-jeff-glor/">he declared</a>: “I think the European Union is a foe, what they do to us in trade.”</p>
<p>This view is consistent with his recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-us-tariffs-will-affect-different-parts-of-the-eu-97651">turn against trade</a> with Europe but ignores the immense benefits that Americans have reaped due to the strong economic and military alliance between the U.S. and Europe – benefits that include nothing less than unprecedented <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/20798962.pdf">peace</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/rules-based-trade-made-the-world-rich-trumps-policies-may-make-it-poorer-97896">prosperity</a>. </p>
<p>As such, Trump’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/trade-wars-50746">trade war</a> with Europe and his hostility toward broader Western alliances such as NATO portend a future of diminished standards of living – as a direct result of less trade – and greater global conflict – <a href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=L53fR-TusZAC&oi=fnd&pg=PR5&ots=Ey5rtq9LrE&sig=MKMMiEv_We3mXsRTdx-045JA_0A#v=onepage&q&f=false">indirectly due to</a> reduced economic integration. In the words of columnist Robert Kagan, “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/everything-will-not-be-okay/2018/07/12/c5900550-85e9-11e8-9e80-403a221946a7_story.html">things</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/16/opinion/trump-nato-european-union-history.html">will</a> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/theworldpost/wp/2018/07/16/putin-trump/">not be ok</a>.” </p>
<p>Some of <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=fMoODlwAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">my research</a> focuses on the impact of increased international trade on U.S. standards of living, which <a href="http://gregcwright.weebly.com/uploads/8/2/7/5/8275912/rising-tide-weai.pdf">I show</a> are causally linked during the late 20th century. Most of the trade in this period occurred among rich nations and was dominated by the U.S.-Europe relationship. </p>
<p>By calling Europe a “foe,” Trump makes clear that he simply doesn’t understand why rich countries trade with one another, which, to be fair, is something that also puzzled economists for many years. </p>
<h2>Why rich countries trade</h2>
<p>Though in some ways it seems obvious why the U.S. and Europe trade with one another – some might enjoy Parmigiana from Italy, while others prefer Wisconsin cheddar – economists initially <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2009/12/basics.htm">had trouble</a> explaining exactly why there was so much trade among rich countries. Surely, they thought, the U.S. can produce good quality cheese at a cost that is similar to producers in Italy, and vice versa, so why would we need to go abroad to satisfy our palettes? </p>
<p>In 1979, economist Paul Krugman provided a clear answer that would eventually <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/2008/press.html">win him</a> the Nobel Prize in economics. The first part of his answer was simple but important and boils down to the fact that consumers benefit from having a wide range of product varieties available to them, even if they are only small variations on the same item. </p>
<p>For instance, <a href="https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union">in 2016</a> the top U.S. exports to the EU were aircraft (US$38.5 billion), machinery ($29.4 billion) and pharmaceutical products ($26.4 billion). The top imports from the EU seem almost identical: machinery ($64.9 billion), pharmaceutical products ($55.2 billion) and vehicles ($54.6 billion). Although the product categories clearly overlap, there are important differences in the types of pharmaceuticals and machinery that are sold in each market. Consumers benefit from having all these options available to them. </p>
<p>The second part of Krugman’s answer was that, by producing for both markets, companies in Europe and the U.S. could reap greater economies of scale in production and lower their prices as a result. This has been found to indeed <a href="https://www.colorado.edu/Economics/courses/boileau/4309/Paper%203.pdf">be what happens</a> when countries trade. And more <a href="http://cid.econ.ucdavis.edu/Papers/Feenstra_Weinstein_jpe.pdf">recent research</a> has shown that increased foreign competition can also lower domestic prices. </p>
<p>These benefits have been quantified. For instance, the gains to the U.S. from new foreign product varieties and lower prices over the period 1992 to 2005 were equal to <a href="http://cid.econ.ucdavis.edu/Papers/Feenstra_Weinstein_jpe.pdf">about one percent of U.S. GDP</a> – or about $100 billion. </p>
<p>In short, Krugman’s answer emphasized the extent to which international trade between equals increases the overall size of the economic pie. And no pie has ever grown larger than the combined economies of the U.S. and Europe, which now <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/united-states/">constitute</a> half of global GDP.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228276/original/file-20180718-142426-1jshe9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228276/original/file-20180718-142426-1jshe9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228276/original/file-20180718-142426-1jshe9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228276/original/file-20180718-142426-1jshe9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228276/original/file-20180718-142426-1jshe9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228276/original/file-20180718-142426-1jshe9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228276/original/file-20180718-142426-1jshe9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pfizer Inc. is headquartered in New York. Both the U.S. and the EU import and export pharmaceuticals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/On-the-Money-Cheaper-Viagra/a7eb4d8ad5b14563b3705646a0ca8107/4/0">AP Photo/Richard Drew</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Largest trading partner</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0003.html">European Union</a> is the largest U.S. trading partner in terms of its total bilateral trade and has been for the past several decades.</p>
<p>Overall, the U.S. <a href="https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union">imported $592 billion</a> in goods and services from the EU in 2016 and exported $501 billion, which represents about 19 percent of total U.S. trade and also represents about 19 percent of American GDP. </p>
<p><iframe id="t6bEs" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/t6bEs/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>A key feature of this trade is that <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/united-states/">almost a third of it</a> happens within individual companies. In other words, it reflects multinational companies shipping products to themselves in order to serve their local market, or as inputs into local production. This type of trade is critical as it serves as the backbone of a <a href="http://oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/4262/EU-US_trade_and_investment_talks:_Why_they_matter.html">vast network</a> of business investments on both sides of the Atlantic, <a href="https://www.bea.gov/scb/pdf/2017/12-December/1217-activities-of-us-multinational-enterprises.pdf">supporting</a> hundreds of thousands of jobs. </p>
<p>It is also a network that propels the global economy: the EU or U.S. serves as the primary trading partner for nearly every country on Earth.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228254/original/file-20180718-142414-1muxzy3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228254/original/file-20180718-142414-1muxzy3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228254/original/file-20180718-142414-1muxzy3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228254/original/file-20180718-142414-1muxzy3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228254/original/file-20180718-142414-1muxzy3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228254/original/file-20180718-142414-1muxzy3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228254/original/file-20180718-142414-1muxzy3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A ship to shore crane prepares to load a shipping container onto a container ship in Savannah, Ga.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/US-China-Tariffs/453b3c52caa348cab5bb628a37a19d3e/9/0">AP Photo/Stephen B. Morton</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Shipping and new institutions</h2>
<p>The U.S.-Europe trade relationship also laid the groundwork for the modern system of international trade via two distinct innovations: new shipping technologies and new global institutions.</p>
<p>On the technological front, the <a href="http://www.worldshipping.org/about-the-industry/history-of-containerization">introduction of the standard shipping container</a> in the 1960s set off the so-called second wave of globalization. This under-appreciated technology was conceived by the U.S Army during the 1950s and was perfected over Atlantic shipping routes. In short, by simply standardizing the size and shape of shipping containers, and building port infrastructure and ships to move them, <a href="http://eprints.brighton.ac.uk/14568/1/JIE%20accepted%20manuscript%20online%20version%20%281%29.pdf">massive economies of scale</a> in shipping were realized. As a result, today container ships the size of small cities are routed via sophisticated logistics to huge deepwater ports around the world. </p>
<p>These routes eventually made it profitable for other countries to invest in the large-scale port infrastructure that could handle modern container ships. This laid the groundwork for the eventual growth of massive container terminals throughout Asia, which now <a href="https://maritimeintelligence.informa.com/content/top-100-success">serve as the hubs</a> of the modern global supply chain. </p>
<p>At the same time that these new technologies were reducing the physical costs of doing business around the world, the U.S. and Europe were also creating <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/anthologies/2011-12-14/archives-international-institutions">institutions</a> to define new international rules for trade and finance. Perhaps the most important one was the post-war General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs, which eventually became the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-wto-99274">World Trade Organization</a>, creating the first rules-based multilateral trade regime. A large body of research shows that these agreements have <a href="https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/7362891.pdf">increased trade</a> and, more importantly, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/joes.12087">raised incomes</a> around the world.</p>
<p>Overall, these advancements contributed to the <a href="http://www.ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ass/article/viewFile/36581/20566">subsequent enrichment</a> of hundreds of millions of workers in Asia, Latin America and Africa by helping to integrate them into the global economy.</p>
<p>And when the world gets richer, the U.S. also benefits for many of the same reasons noted above: demand for U.S. products increases as incomes rise around the world, as does the variety of products the U.S. can import, and the prices of these goods typically fall. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228252/original/file-20180718-142423-1tf5lke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228252/original/file-20180718-142423-1tf5lke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228252/original/file-20180718-142423-1tf5lke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228252/original/file-20180718-142423-1tf5lke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228252/original/file-20180718-142423-1tf5lke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228252/original/file-20180718-142423-1tf5lke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228252/original/file-20180718-142423-1tf5lke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A cartoon Trump blimp flies as a protesters speak out against Trump’s visit to London.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Britain-Trump-Visit/66460331f9b84b1c8e573d985f6c9dbd/18/0">AP Photo/Matt Dunham</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Taking the long view</h2>
<p>But it appears that President Trump sees the U.S. on the losing end of a failed relationship. </p>
<p>It is unsurprising that tensions with Europe have come to the forefront over perceived imbalances in trade, particularly for a president who is not afraid <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-go-it-alone-approach-to-china-trade-ignores-wtos-better-way-to-win-93918">to take long-time allies to task</a>. </p>
<p>This is because U.S. trade policy <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/normalizing-trade-relations-with-china-was-a-mistake/562403">has arguably been overly optimistic</a> in recent years, particularly with respect to China, whose accession to the WTO proved to be much more disruptive to labor markets around the world than was predicted. Previous U.S. administrations preferred patience over confrontation, leading to a perhaps inevitable backlash that has spilled into other relationships, such as the one with Europe. </p>
<p>However, the U.S. relationship with Europe is clearly different, primarily because it is longstanding and has been largely one of equals. But also because their shared values mean that there are many non-economic issues — such as the spread of liberal democracy and the promotion of human rights — that get advanced by the close economic ties. </p>
<p>It’s important to not underestimate what is at stake if the U.S.-Europe alliance is allowed to falter. Americans are likely in the midst of the <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/we-enjoy-the-most-peaceful-period-on-earth-ever_us_57ab4b34e4b08c46f0e47130">most peaceful era</a> in world history, and global economic integration, led from the beginning by the U.S. and Europe, <a href="https://voxeu.org/article/globalisation-promotes-peace">has been</a> a key contributing factor. Global extreme poverty is also <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty">at its lowest point</a> ever, again in large part due to globalization. </p>
<p>These are the byproducts and legacies of seven decades of expanding international trade and should not be taken for granted.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99829/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Greg Wright does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The president, who called the European Union a ‘foe’ following a series of meetings in Europe, may not realize just how much Americans have gained from their relationship with Europe.Greg Wright, Assistant Professor of Economics, University of California, MercedLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/811212017-07-20T06:18:27Z2017-07-20T06:18:27ZWildfires are raging in the Mediterranean. What can we learn?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178616/original/file-20170718-21994-s93py0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Forest fires are a key part of the lifecycle of the woods, but they can also be deadly.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Eduard Plana</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In Italy, firefighters across the country are battling <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-wildfire-idUSKBN1A220M">hundreds of wildfires</a>, the flames fanned by a combination of heat and drought.</p>
<p>This is just the latest in a succession of fires in the Mediterranean. In June, forest fires in Portugal <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/22/portugal-forest-fires-under-control">killed 64 people</a> in Pedrógão Grande, in the Leira district, and immediately afterwards <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/25/spain-forest-fire-forces-more-than-1500-from-homes-and-campsites">Spanish forests</a> went up in flames, forcing the evacuation of more than 1,500 people from homes and campsites.</p>
<p>Fires are expected in the summer, but they don’t usually have such severe consequences. These incidents highlight the need to rethink how landscapes can be managed to protect people and sustain ecosystems when the region’s climate and population are rapidly changing.</p>
<h2>Reforestation</h2>
<p>Today, <a href="https://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v515/n7525/abs/nature13946.html">even areas with a long evolutionary history of fire</a>, including the Mediterranean, southern Australia and western United States, are seeing higher risks of fire, a change associated with a warming climate and the <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/114/18/4582">growing number of people who live</a> near densely forested landscapes. </p>
<p>It’s not that southern Europeans are moving to the forest – quite the opposite, in fact. Across the Mediterranean, decades of economic and social changes have led to rural depopulation as people move to larger cities. </p>
<p>In 1950, almost 50% of the Spanish population lived in rural areas. By 1990, that figure <a href="http://www.adeh.org/?q=es/contenido/peaceful-surrender-depopulation-rural-spain-twentieth-century">had fallen by more than 25%</a>.</p>
<p>As a result, landscapes that previously comprised small-scale mosaics of farmland, grazing land and relatively open forests are now <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479711002258">dominated by young, dense forests</a>. As an example, see the images below of the same Spanish landscape in the 1900s and today.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178484/original/file-20170717-6091-1xjfszt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178484/original/file-20170717-6091-1xjfszt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178484/original/file-20170717-6091-1xjfszt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178484/original/file-20170717-6091-1xjfszt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178484/original/file-20170717-6091-1xjfszt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178484/original/file-20170717-6091-1xjfszt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178484/original/file-20170717-6091-1xjfszt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pont de la Frau, Solsona County in Central Catalonia, in northwestern Spain, in the mid-1900s.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Solsonés County Counsil</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178485/original/file-20170717-6091-4vyb6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178485/original/file-20170717-6091-4vyb6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178485/original/file-20170717-6091-4vyb6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178485/original/file-20170717-6091-4vyb6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178485/original/file-20170717-6091-4vyb6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178485/original/file-20170717-6091-4vyb6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178485/original/file-20170717-6091-4vyb6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pont de la Frau in 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marc Font</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/what-links-portugals-deadliest-wildfire-to-grenfell-tower-economics-and-neglect-79815">Forest plantations</a>, grown for profit and to protect soil, can also increase fire risk when they are stressed by drier conditions.</p>
<p>So how can modern Mediterranean landscapes, with their ever-higher fuel loads, reduce the adverse effects of fires? </p>
<h2>Unfuelling the fire</h2>
<p><a href="http://firefficient.ctfc.cat/images/book_guidelines.pdf">Integrative strategies</a> that take into account the various social, economic and ecological factors of fire offer possible solutions for both rural and urban landscapes.</p>
<p><a href="http://efirecom.ctfc.cat/docs/revistaefirecom_en.pdf">Fire suppression</a> – involving the sophisticated use of firefighting vehicles to suppress fires soon after they start – is the most common form of fire management in Mediterranean ecosystems.</p>
<p>Suppression is an important way of keeping people and homes safe, but its success has a negative flipside: it <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479711002258">leads vegetation to accumulate</a>, increasing the risk of future adverse fires over large swathes of territory.</p>
<p>To manage this vegetation and leaf litter, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1890/120298/abstract">prescribed burning</a>, which reduces or breaks up the connectivity of this fuel, is becoming more common in southern Europe.</p>
<p>This option will be more effective in <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10021-016-0010-2">some areas</a> than <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF14034">others</a>. Fires are not only controlled by fuels but also by interactions with climate, topography and local conditions. </p>
<p>For example, recent work suggests that prescribed burning is more likely to reduce unplanned fires <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/WF14034">in Portugal than in Spain</a>, perhaps because of the greater influence in Portugal of “bottom-up” drivers (such as fuel) than “top-down” drivers (climate, for instance, and weather). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178480/original/file-20170717-6091-13w0p2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178480/original/file-20170717-6091-13w0p2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178480/original/file-20170717-6091-13w0p2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178480/original/file-20170717-6091-13w0p2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178480/original/file-20170717-6091-13w0p2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178480/original/file-20170717-6091-13w0p2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178480/original/file-20170717-6091-13w0p2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Planned burning is undertaken in Albacete, in east-central Spain.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Carla Vilarasau, The Pau Costa Foundation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Fuel management is particularly effective when it is <a href="http://firefficient.ctfc.cat/images/book_guidelines.pdf">prioritised at strategic management points</a> and in critical urban and rural areas near homes and other assets.</p>
<p>In rural areas specifically, linking fuel reduction efforts with forestry and agricultural practices that benefit local economies – promoting what’s called the <a href="http://www.efimed.efi.int/files/images/efimed/virtual_library/reflection_on_the_bioeconomy_1.pdf">bioeconomy</a> – provides opportunities for more effective management. </p>
<p>Among other examples, sustainable forestry practices can be used <a href="http://firefficient.ctfc.cat/images/book_guidelines.pdf">to develop more open areas with widely spaced trees</a>, which impedes the transmission of fire between adjacent trees. Such harvesting can also benefit local economies by creating jobs in forestry and energy production. </p>
<p>Grazing is another good way to reduce fuel loads in rural areas. <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479711002258">France</a> is now integrating this traditional method into its fire management practices, and it is currently being piloted in <a href="http://lifemontserrat.eu/en/results/">Catalonia</a>, Spain.</p>
<p>Agriculture, too, can reduce the connectivity of forest fuels and reduce wildfire risk. The development of certain new crops, <a href="http://star-tree.eu/project">such as truffles and vineyards on previously abandoned landscapes</a>, could act as “<a href="https://theconversation.com/low-flammability-plants-could-help-our-homes-survive-bushfires-53870">green firebreaks</a>”, though scientists and land managers have only recently begun to explore this option. </p>
<h2>Involving local communities</h2>
<p>Educating <a href="http://efirecom.ctfc.cat/docs/RECOM%20ENGLISH_final.pdf">citizens about wildfires</a> is the necessary flipside of these prevention tactics to keep wildfires from becoming tragedies. </p>
<p>Talking to people about home safety, when to evacuate unsafe areas and when to shelter in place are essential steps that should be taken to minimise hazardous fire outcomes currently being seen across the Mediterranean.</p>
<p>This is best done through a participatory approach that puts local communities at the forefront. That is, stakeholders should be involved through the entire planning process (not just immediately before or after a fire event). </p>
<p>To get widespread social buy-in for fire management strageties, it’s key to bring together and <a href="http://firefficient.ctfc.cat/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/deliverable15_Wildfire-social-assesment-and-governance.pdf">empower decision-making groups made up of diverse stakeholders</a> from across society, from farmers and wildlife organisations to local business.</p>
<p>One case where this co-responsibility will prove helpful in the Mediterranean basin is in integrating wildfire risk into spatial planning of urban and rural areas. Decisions on where and how to <a href="http://efirecom.ctfc.cat/docs/FOREST%20FIRE%20RISK%20IN%20THE%20WILDLAND%20URBAN%20INTERFASE%20EFIRECOM%20PROJECT.pdf">build new homes</a> should be based on an informed view of fire risk, wherein all parties understand the reasoning behind those decisions.</p>
<h2>The benefits of fire</h2>
<p>Fire, of course, is not all bad. Many plants and animals depend on fires for their survival and the right kind of fire <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1264">can promote biodiversity</a>. </p>
<p>In Mediterranean ecosystems, some plants need fire to complete their life cycles, and others have adaptations, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/nph.13644/pdf">such as thick bark or the capacity to resprout</a>, that aid recovery after fire.</p>
<p>Animals may also benefit from open areas created by fires. For instance, the <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01467.x/abstract">ortolan bunting</a>, a farmland bird species that has declined across much of Europe, colonises and inhabits recently burnt areas.</p>
<p>But flora and fauna are not adapted to all kinds of fire regimes, so effective <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.12861/abstract">biodiversity conservation</a> depends on deep knowledge of how the temporal and spatial arrangement of fires <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.12767/full">influence species</a>.</p>
<p>This same understanding of how plants, animals, fires and other processes interact is also key to <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0062392">predicting when and where future fires might occur</a> under a changing climate. Today, data and models of <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815216307563">fire spread</a> and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10342-016-0943-1">occurrence</a> can be used to <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v515/n7525/abs/nature13946.html">map fire hazards</a> and consider how they might influence people.</p>
<p>It is not possible to eliminate fire risk completely. But more holistic strategies that incorporate the particular social, economic and ecological factors present in the various fire-impacted areas of the Mediterranean would go a long way to protect people and sustain ecosystems in the face of rapid climate change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81121/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luke Kelly receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Victorian Government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eduard Plana Bach receives funding from Forest Sciences Centre of Catalonia. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marc Font Bernet receives funding from Forest Sciences Centre of Catalonia. </span></em></p>Italy, Portugal and Spain have all gone up in flames in recent weeks, highlighting the need to rethink how Mediterranean countries protect people and save ecosystems.Luke Kelly, Research Fellow, The University of MelbourneEduard Plana Bach, Head of Unit of Forest Policy and Environmental Governance, Forest Sciences Centre of CataloniaMarc Font Bernet, Researcher in the Forest Sciences Centre of CataloniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/807132017-07-10T15:33:59Z2017-07-10T15:33:59ZAusterity has wounded public health in EU bailout countries – Greece worst of all<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177534/original/file-20170710-29720-vdd5ya.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hard times. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/106737143@N07/12974324945/in/photolist-kLuNMF-qVF2c-6UKcdL-ayKCUd-bpXNkf-g18McA-cQay4s-jmNYjU-a8D4YA-764w1U-75ZwXF-75Zx1n-77gYLc-75ZA9a-75ZwUi-92PPRC-8LtgZo-s39xvg-764r1d-a8AbXk-qVEbo-g19ygU-5b78ZS-a8D4xL-sn8rt-4yKDhV-g19bj7-8MBDdG-r48VyF-jvxpcf-bFEffX-qVE3n-gFGbw2-TmNY3-326bkk-jmLed4-s52pNM-PTJEN-tSkuq-2tBkab-etGBoH-jmNZTW-jTfKaJ-hhQnPL-ey3Brm-ey3BbC-ey3Cdd-ng6TvY-BLo9sL-b5ggwr">Chris Acos</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The economic crisis of the past decade has been a wrenching experience, particularly for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/jun/15/markets-bank-of-england-retail-sales-greek-debt-talks-business-live">Greece</a>, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/11/spain-troika-supervision-bailout_n_1585925.html">Spain</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25409121">Portugal</a> and <a href="http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/troika-to-return-to-ireland-as-part-of-post-bailout-review-1.2392041">Ireland</a>. They all required bailouts from the Troika of the European Commission, European Central Bank and the IMF. The bailouts came with tough conditions to slash public spending and employment and raise taxes to achieve a balanced budget.</p>
<p>I’ve been looking at how this has affected people’s health. Depending on how a country’s system works, austerity in times of recession can take away funds for healthcare at the very time when demand is growing from millions of newly unemployed people needing help. Cuts to other social policy areas can further fray the safety net, with those at risk falling through the gaps. </p>
<p>Austerity <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2015/apr/29/the-austerity-delusion">can also aggravate</a> an economic downturn, which can translate into a health crisis further down the line. This is because the broader social and economic environment <a href="http://pzacad.pitzer.edu/%7Edmoore/2009_Masterpasqua_Psych&Epi_Rev%20Gen%20Psych.pdf">exerts</a> a <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3752775/">powerful</a> influence on <a href="http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/43943/1/9789241563703_eng.pdf">children’s health</a>. Prolonged exposure to excess stress hormones, known as toxic stress, can alter the structure of their brain and immune system and lead to heart disease, strokes, cancer, depression, anxiety and behavioural problems. It <a href="http://developingchild.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/2005/05/Stress_Disrupts_Architecture_Developing_Brain-1.pdf">can take</a> many years <a href="https://secure.jbs.elsevierhealth.com/action/getSharedSiteSession?rc=1&redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ajpmonline.org%2Farticle%2FS0749-3797%2898%2900017-8%2Fpdf&code=amepre-site">for the full effects</a> to come to light. </p>
<p>So much for the theory: to get a better understanding of what has happened in practice, I compared the effects on health in Greece and Ireland. Both countries’ health sectors have suffered, but it has been much worse in Greece. </p>
<h2>The Irish experience</h2>
<p>Ireland’s <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/country/ireland">recession was</a> less deep or prolonged than <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/12cea50a-19db-11e7-bcac-6d03d067f81f?mhq5j=e3">that of Greece</a>, and the austerity programme <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/austerity-measures-definition-examples-do-they-work-3306285">was</a> more moderate. There was a big difference in rescue packages: Ireland’s was €85 billion (£75 billion), whereas Greece’s three bailouts totalled €326 billion. </p>
<p>Ireland still initially made deep cuts to healthcare, however. This <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25082466">drove up</a> hospital waiting lists, particularly for elective surgery. An ambitious plan for universal coverage and free primary care had to be scaled back to a more modest guarantee of free care for the elderly and young children. </p>
<p>Yet Ireland has registered a <a href="https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/07/14/2169550/placing-irelands-economic-recovery-in-context/?mhq5j=e3">steady economic recovery</a> since 2014, while unemployment has <a href="http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/unemployment-hits-9-year-low-of-6-2-as-strong-job-growth-continues-1.3069795">more than halved</a> to its <a href="http://www.cso.ie/en/index.html">current</a> 6.3%. As a result, the health budget started increasing again in 2015. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177531/original/file-20170710-29699-tkez1n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177531/original/file-20170710-29699-tkez1n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177531/original/file-20170710-29699-tkez1n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177531/original/file-20170710-29699-tkez1n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177531/original/file-20170710-29699-tkez1n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177531/original/file-20170710-29699-tkez1n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177531/original/file-20170710-29699-tkez1n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177531/original/file-20170710-29699-tkez1n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Irish health: still on the road?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/18378305@N00/9959063043/in/photolist-gb3Ntv-h2Bj5N-fQiiCy-acSPk-jRhdYZ-AySfs-ey6NCi-eFG44Z-6kvug1-h2Bn9z-LQRbP-7psHig-cwbyNu-cwbz7G-cwbAbN-2eMN6Y-cwbADG-cwbzyh-cwbymo-e4kdHm-9wDHey-9wDQ67-9wDHH7-e4keoL-e4eKiH-h6soN8-DmuC5N-h7i6i-bvy8vt-e3SFzn-9wAM4R-9wAGwa-9wAN7V-67rfWu-e3SNep-e3SF2D-67mgT8-9wAG1x-9wAKNr-e4eATg-e4ezsc-4ZrA3X-9wAL9k-e4eFMD-67kXYt-7SoR3u-bAG3H2-e3YsBS-e3Y6Um-e3Yrpb">Can Pac Swire</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ireland started with a more generous welfare state, so it was better equipped to contain the recession and prevent it from turning into an epidemic of illness and trauma. This seems to have shielded the most vulnerable, particularly through generous unemployment benefits and cash payments to families. </p>
<p>Several studies on self-reported health and suicide rates <a href="http://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/266384/The-impact-of-the-financial-crisis-on-the-health-system-and-health-in-Ireland.pdf?ua=1">have</a> shown <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26458118">that</a> the recession only had a <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0033350614001966">limited effect</a> on Irish health. Having said that, with 25% of the population experiencing poverty and social exclusion, Ireland does have reason to be concerned about the long-term effects of the recession on the health of children and single-parent families. </p>
<h2>Greek hardship</h2>
<p>Yet by contrast, Greek austerity has been brutal. The country is <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/greece/gdp-growth-annual">still only achieving</a> anaemic economic growth at best, and unemployment <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/greece/unemployment-rate">remains</a> at over 20%. With a quarter of the population <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/09/greek-debt-crisis-damage-healthcare-hospital-austerity">losing</a> their job-based insurance, the public hospital system has faced growing demands for care even as the government has slashed health budgets. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177535/original/file-20170710-29720-1kkltey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177535/original/file-20170710-29720-1kkltey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177535/original/file-20170710-29720-1kkltey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177535/original/file-20170710-29720-1kkltey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177535/original/file-20170710-29720-1kkltey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177535/original/file-20170710-29720-1kkltey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177535/original/file-20170710-29720-1kkltey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177535/original/file-20170710-29720-1kkltey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">No end in sight.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/stethoscope-national-flag-conceptual-series-hellenic-256202872?src=XLAsQzVr6LyLZU-IXII6hA-1-69">Niyazz</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Unsurprisingly, waiting lists for treatment <a href="http://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/279820/Web-economic-crisis-health-systems-and-health-web.pdf?ua=1">have soared</a>. With more than 35% of Greeks <a href="http://www.eapn.ie/eapn/training/poverty-in-ireland">experiencing</a> poverty and social exclusion in 2015, the recession has taken an <a href="http://www.eapn.ie/eapn/training/poverty-in-ireland">appalling toll</a> on health. Self-reported health <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(13)62291-6/abstract">has been</a> deteriorating, with more respondents citing mental illnesses such as depression. Suicide rates <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953614002433">have climbed</a> significantly, particularly among older men and young people. </p>
<p>Fiscal consolidation has also undermined an already limited welfare state’s ability to respond to the crisis. Greece’s extremely low family payments and cuts to unemployment benefits have proved to be an inadequate shelter for the jobless and children. </p>
<p>And with a crushing <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/greece/government-debt-to-gdp">public debt</a> load around 180% of GDP – more than twice that <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/government-debt-to-gdp">of Ireland</a> – it is hard to see how Greece will be able to return to sustained growth anytime soon. Without growth, the social misery and illness among its most vulnerable members is not likely to abate. </p>
<p>In sum, all the EU bailout countries will have suffered negative effects on health from austerity and are likely to be feeling them for many years to come. But for Greece in particular, we should expect the damage from this trauma to be severe. </p>
<p>Until the eurozone rewrites its rules for membership and balances the pursuit of fiscal prudence and debt repayment with sustainable economic growth and social cohesion, the health of its most vulnerable citizens will continue to suffer. It’s only when you translate the numbers from figures about economics into hard facts about people’s health that you begin to appreciate the scale of the disaster. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article is part of a series on sustainability and transformation in today’s Europe, published in collaboration with <a href="http://www.europenowjournal.org">EuropeNow Journal</a> and the <a href="https://councilforeuropeanstudies.org">Council for European Studies (CES)</a> at Columbia University. Each article is based on a paper presented at the <a href="https://councilforeuropeanstudies.org/conferences/upcoming-conferences/2017-ces-conference">24th International Conference of Europeanists</a> in Glasgow.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80713/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susan Giaimo is an unpaid member of Southeastern Wisconsin Common Ground, a local community organisation that has been addressing the foreclosure crisis in Milwaukee following from the subprime practices of the banks. </span></em></p>From hospital waiting lists to suicide rates, here’s how cuts affected health in Ireland and Greece.Susan Giaimo, Adjunct Assistant Professor of Political Science and Biomedical Science, Marquette UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/798152017-06-22T11:30:07Z2017-06-22T11:30:07ZWhat links Portugal’s deadliest wildfire to Grenfell Tower? Economics and neglect<p>In one tragic week, many dozens died in two seemingly unconnected fires in the UK and Portugal. One blazed through <a href="https://theconversation.com/grenfell-tower-disaster-how-did-the-fire-spread-so-quickly-79445">a high-rise building in London</a>, far away from natural ignitions and cladded with what should have been non-flammable insulation. The other was a wildfire, suggested to have been started <a href="http://news.sky.com/story/dozens-killed-in-portuguese-forest-fires-10918978">by lightning</a>, which then engulfed rural communities surrounded by highly flammable forest plantations.</p>
<p>Yet the two tragedies share parallels, and not only in the <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-portugal-fire-residents-idUKKBN19A2MZ">search for answers</a>. Both fires spread quickly and burned with an intensity well beyond what firefighters were able to stop. Both caught residents largely unprepared, with their escape routes cut off, and both left a death toll far beyond what might have been expected for either a building or a forest fire in such highly-developed countries. </p>
<p>Indeed, the fires in Portugal <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/portugal-close-wildfire-killed-64-48176834">claimed 64 lives</a>, making it the country’s deadliest wildfire in recorded history.</p>
<p>Potential ignition sources for fires are common, be they lightning, accident or arson. However, advances in fire detection, firefighting and use of less flammable building materials have led to a much lower threat from fires in modern cities. The same cannot be said for the <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11069-016-2474-y">rural communities in north-central Portugal</a> and indeed many other regions of the Mediterranean.</p>
<h2>The tinderbox of Europe</h2>
<p>The roots of Portugal’s latest fire can be found in economic and social changes. Over the past few decades, the country’s rural areas – already among Europe’s poorest regions – have seen significant depopulation as residents moved to wealthier cities or countries in search of work, leaving behind almost <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-portugal-villages-widerimage-idUKKCN0XP1HC">abandoned villages</a>. As a result, a landscape that was once dominated by farming, grazing and open oak forest land, has <a href="https://www.novapublishers.com/catalog/product_info.php?products_id=36052">been replaced</a> with denser vegetation such as plantations of native pine (<em>Pinus pinaster</em>) and, more recently, Australian eucalyptus (<em>Eucalyptus globulus</em>).</p>
<p>Both trees grow fast and provide valuable timber. In theory, they are lower maintenance, and require fewer workers, than the more open and intensely managed agri-forest of the past. Such plantations therefore sound like a sensible option for the region.</p>
<p>However, the switch to pine and eucalyptus also resulted in a much more flammable landscape. In fact, <em>Eucalyptus globulus</em>, introduced in many countries for pulp production, is one of the world’s most flammable tree species and its extent <a href="http://www.icnf.pt/portal/florestas/ifn/resource/ficheiros/ifn/ifn6-res-prelimv1-1">has more than doubled in Portugal</a> since the 1980s. In severe forest fires, burning bits of vegetation (firebrand) are often lifted by wind and can travel hundreds of metres. Eucalyptus bark is <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF09080">particularly effective</a> at spreading fire in this way. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175236/original/file-20170622-12027-2q3vca.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175236/original/file-20170622-12027-2q3vca.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175236/original/file-20170622-12027-2q3vca.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175236/original/file-20170622-12027-2q3vca.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175236/original/file-20170622-12027-2q3vca.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175236/original/file-20170622-12027-2q3vca.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175236/original/file-20170622-12027-2q3vca.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175236/original/file-20170622-12027-2q3vca.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A road cuts through a dense plantation of highly-flammable eucalyptus trees.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">António Bento Gonçalves</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The humid Atlantic climate of the northwestern Iberian peninsula also plays a role. Mild winters with high rainfall allow for excellent growing conditions, yet its dry, hot summers combine to make this region the tinderbox of Europe.</p>
<h2>Impossible to extinguish</h2>
<p>Forest fires are therefore common in this region and Portugal has one of the best fire detection and fighting capabilities in Europe. But though its average annual area burned has <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0150663&type=printable">decreased in recent years</a>, this tragic fire has been a stark reminder that <a href="http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/371/1696/20150345">the threat remains</a>.</p>
<p>Firefighters are well aware that once a fire spreads in dense vegetation, such as pine or eucalyptus forests, in hot and windy conditions, it is essentially impossible to extinguish. Efforts are then typically aimed, not always successfully, at halting its spread at its flanks and onto infrastructures, or aiding the evacuation of residents. In the mountainous terrain of Portugal with few escape routes and the fires’ spread accelerated by firebrand igniting new areas ahead of the fire front, this can become an impossible task. </p>
<p>Just as was the case in the tragic <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/296939312_Mega-fires_around_the_world_A_literature_review">Australian Black Saturday fires in 2009</a>, in attempts to escape or avoid the fire, residents drove along mountain roads through dense smoke and were trapped by the fire in the process. Indeed, vehicle entrapment during late evacuation is <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-prepare-your-home-for-a-bushfire-and-when-to-leave-50962">one of the most common causes of death</a> in wildfire.</p>
<p>The scale of human losses in this fire has been unprecedented in Portugal’s recent history, yet <a href="http://mediterranee.revues.org/6863">the occurrence and extent of fire is not</a>. What caused the fire could be seen as almost immaterial as there will always be potential ignition sources, particularly in areas with widely scattered population. Whether fire will spread and pose a risk to people is then a matter of vegetation flammability, terrain and weather, along with the level of planning and effective communication required to quickly move residents to safe areas.</p>
<p>In this event, hot dry weather, scattered villages with a dwindling population insufficiently prepared for fire, surrounded by steep terrain with extensive monocultures of highly-flammable trees and insufficient communication, combined into a tragic loss of life. Yet, as with London’s Grenfell Tower fire, the high fire risk was far from unforeseeable. There is much that can be done to reduce the threat from, or even eliminate, highly flammable materials – be it insulation around buildings, or dense forest plantations surrounding villages. In both cases, importants lessons must be learned.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79815/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stefan H. Doerr receives funding from NERC and The Leverhulme Trust</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cristina Santin receives funding from the Leverhulme Trust.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>António Bento-Gonçalves does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Portugal’s wildfire has killed 64 people. Yet, as with Grenfell Tower in London, the risk of such a blaze was foreseeable.Stefan H Doerr, Professor of Geography and Editor in Chief of the International Journal of Wildland Fire, Swansea UniversityAntónio Bento-Gonçalves, Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, University of MinhoCristina Santín, Research Officer, Geography, Swansea UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/787772017-06-06T14:54:27Z2017-06-06T14:54:27ZSculptures, slides and slavery: a new way of telling Lusophone African stories<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172410/original/file-20170606-15219-1m9x2fl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ângela Ferreira's 'Wattle and Daub' - performance by Selma Uamusse at 'Old School’, Lisbon in February 2016.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Vera Marmelo</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Johannesburg Art Gallery is hosting Ângela Ferreira’s solo exhibition, “South Facing”. Ferreira’s work is concerned with the ongoing impact of colonialism and post-colonialism particularly in the Global South. <a href="http://angelaferreira.info/">Ferreira</a> is both artist and academic. With her dual African Portuguese identity Ferreira’s work is rooted in South Africa, Mozambique and Portugal. The Conversation Africa’s Charles Leonard spoke to her.</em></p>
<p><strong>You are based in Lisbon. Do you still identify as an African artist?</strong></p>
<p>Mine is a complicated personal story, but not unusual in southern Africa. I was born in Mozambique, studied in Cape Town and hold both Portuguese and South African passports. I am a Luso-South African. My critical roots are very solidly grounded in South Africa, and I presently teach and live in Lisbon. </p>
<p>Yes, I identify as an African artist. My conceptually driven and subtly political practice is not part of the mainstream production in the South African art context of the moment but I would like to believe that I still have something to contribute in this milieu. “South Facing” is a good example of the rich intersections between Mozambique, South Africa and Portugal which I draw from in my work. I intend to pursue my life project of exploring and digging out meaning in this area.</p>
<p><strong>Please tell us about “Wattle and Daub” (2016) which forms part of “South Facing”.</strong></p>
<p>This work evolved as a response to an invitation to devise a new work for performance space called “Old School” in Lisbon. “Old School” is located in an area of the city known as “Poço dos Negros” which means “well of the black people”. Historically it housed the water well which served Lisbon’s black community from the 1700s. At that time most of this community were slaves.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ge5BZjVVKpQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Jorge Ben Jor with his song ‘Zumbi’.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>“Wattle and Daub” is based on Jorge Ben Jor’s 1974 song, “Zumbi”. It’s about Brazilian slave escapee communities in their settlement Quilombos, under the leadership of “Zumbi” dos Palmares. Zumbi was a slave escapee himself and led the free slaves from the clutches of the Portuguese slave owners to the mountains where they lived as free communities. </p>
<p>The song’s lyrics describes the scene of a slave auction, ending with hopeful speculation about what will happen when Zumbi arrives. Zumbi has become a symbol of liberation in Brazilian history. The refrain in the song “Angola, Congo, Benguela, Monjolo, Cabinda, Mina, Quiloa, Rebollo” evokes the African origins of the slaves who were up for sale.</p>
<figure>
<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/158999995" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The performance of ‘Wattle and Daub’ in Lisbon in 2016.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>“Wattle and Daub” consists of a projected image of the building of the old slave market in Lagos, Portugal. In the image the building is undergoing renovation and is partially covered up by scaffolding. There is a wattle and daub structure which makes up a freestanding fence in front of the slide projection.</p>
<p>My starting point was an image of the building of the old slave market in Lagos, Algarve – that’s in the south of Portugal. That is the slide that is projected on the wall. I chose to work with an image where the building is partially covered by scaffolding.</p>
<p>In my sculpture I am constructing a new scaffold in front of the slide projection, using a construction technique which would have been common among the slave escapee communities - wattle and daub. The 14 drawings on the wall tell the story of the song, the Lagos slave market building, the sale of slaves both in Portugal and in Brazil, and life in the Quilombos. </p>
<p>The song about Zumbi is then performed through the sculpture as a homage to these escapee slave communities, their leader Zumbi, the Quilombos and Jorge Ben Jor’s celebratory song. The video of the performance is an integral part of the work.</p>
<p><strong>Rock guitarist Jimi Hendrix’s song “Stone Free” is also referenced in “South Facing” – tell us more.</strong></p>
<p>“South Facing” includes a work called “Study for Hendrix/Cullinan Shaft and Underground Cinema (After R Smithson)” (2012), which is part of a larger body work called precisely the same as <a href="http://www.allmusic.com/artist/jimi-hendrix-mn0000354105">Jimi Hendrix</a>’s song “Stone Free”. This project which was first shown in London at Marlborough Contemporary – it marked the beginning of my investigations into the history of mining.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172269/original/file-20170605-16845-seu91p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172269/original/file-20170605-16845-seu91p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172269/original/file-20170605-16845-seu91p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172269/original/file-20170605-16845-seu91p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172269/original/file-20170605-16845-seu91p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=733&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172269/original/file-20170605-16845-seu91p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=733&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172269/original/file-20170605-16845-seu91p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=733&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ângela Ferreira, Hendrix Cullinan Shaft, (2012), Installation view South Facing, Johannesburg Art Gallery, 2017.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>“Stone Free” links two holes, two spaces, two locations. The Cullinan Diamond Mine, source of one of the largest diamonds ever unearthed, acts as the first reference point for the show. Loaded with symbolic value, mines in South
Africa have always appeared as powerful images of the political and economic structures that they sustained.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RH1Pxi-uJY0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The Jimi Hendrix Experience performing ‘Stone Free’.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The second reference point, the Chislehurst Caves in London, are a warren of mines and tunnels that became a site of counter-culture in the 1960s. The caves were an underground music venue. Hendrix, who performed there, is a key figure for the exhibition, bridging not only musical cultures, but also an African-American identity via an adopted home in London, just yards from the gallery. One of his songs lends the show its title.</p>
<p>Although Hendrix was not an openly political figure, his person and his music have come to represent the very embodiment of revolution and liberation. He dramatically revolutionised rock music and the image of the African-American musician. I am led to believe that he left the USA to live in London in order to liberate himself from the set of musical expectations that were usually imposed on black musicians, and which he could not adhere to. </p>
<p>The meaning of the expression of being “stone” free is ambiguous, as are many of Hendrix’s lyrics, but seemed appropriate to point towards artistically and critically conceiving of liberation from the oppressive history of mining, particularly in Africa.</p>
<p><em>The exhibition runs until July 30, 2017.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78777/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span> Ministério da Cultura / Direção-Geral das Artes, University of the Witwatersrand / Wits City Institute, Camões - Instituto da Cooperação e da Língua, Camões - Centro Cultural Português (Maputo), Embassy of Portugal in South Africa, Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian,
City of Joburg, Friends of JAG, Faculdade de Belas Artes da Universidade de Lisboa,
Business and Arts South Africa</span></em></p>A new art exhibition in Johannesburg mines the rich intersections between Mozambique, South Africa and Portugal.Ângela Ferreira, Lecturer in Fine Arts, Universidade de Lisboa Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/745622017-03-16T17:46:59Z2017-03-16T17:46:59ZWhy South Africa should follow Portugal and decriminalise drug use<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/161141/original/image-20170316-10905-cfu0qv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Young people using the infamous 'nyaope' drug in Johannesburg.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Moeletsi Mabe/ The Times</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2015 I started joining police in the South African port city of Durban on their “drug operations”. Most of my journeys were at night. They focused mainly on the policing of street level drug users. </p>
<p>The brief of the police was to increase arrests for drug possession, drug use and drug dealing. They were well aware that the easiest way to achieve these targets – critical to their performance management – was to carry out arrests emanating from observing street level drug users engaged in drug transactions.</p>
<p>So began a night of witnessing “buy and busts”. Random searches generally proved to be successful. Predominantly young black men were searched. Small amounts of illicit drugs were found in their possession. They were detained and thrust into the back of the police van where I was sitting, observing and interacting, in my ethnographic mode.</p>
<p>The majority of those apprehended were either in possession of, or using, a drug called “whoonga”. Whoonga – like “sugars”, “nyaope”, “unga” – is essentially poor grade heroin mixed with a variety of bulking agents (some very toxic). </p>
<p>The visible effect of whoonga was a deep feeling of relaxation and even sleepiness. Not surprisingly, the whoonga users who were arrested didn’t resist the police. If anything, they were submissive. </p>
<p>Whoonga users, I realised, are the low hanging fruit that the police target to ensure that their arrests rates look good. But I had a second and more significant realisation as I spoke with the whoonga users – that South Africa falls very short of having the correct approach to dealing with drug user disorders. Arrests and strong arm law enforcement play no role in curtailing whoonga use.</p>
<p>On the contrary, it pushes drug use and drug markets further underground, making it almost impossible to design programmes to reduce the harms associated with drug use. The winners, it’s clear, are the big time dealers who are able to capitalise on dark networks to continue operating. </p>
<p>Other countries have shown that there are better ways of managing the problem. One example is Portugal.</p>
<h2>Ineffective war on drugs</h2>
<p>The war on drugs in South Africa, as in the US, has in <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2016-11-21-legalise-it-the-war-on-drugs-has-failed/#.WMkNE027qM8">no way reduced</a> the supply or the demand of drugs. And without a doubt it’s led to an increase in the harms associated with drugs as users once incarcerated and left with a criminal record become increasingly marginalised.</p>
<p>Criminalisation results in reduced possibilities for people who use drugs to normalise their lives and to reintegrate. Endless punishment, rather than support, has fundamentally harmful consequences for individual drug users, their families and the broader community. </p>
<p>Fear of arrest and stigmatisation prevents the problems that underlay problematic drug use being talked about, leaving users and their families isolated, hopeless and vulnerable. Failure to see the people behind the drugs, and the real problems that lie beneath drug use, has devastating outcomes.</p>
<h2>Another approach</h2>
<p>So what should South Africans be talking about in this context? They should be talking about bringing drug use and the markets into the open, in much the <a href="https://www.opensocietyfoundations.org/sites/default/files/drug-policy-in-portugal-english-20120814.pdf">same way</a> as has been done in Portugal since 2001. This means moving away from the senseless and unproductive war on drugs to the possibility of decriminalisation which would allow proper support to be provided to drug users and their families, and would dramatically decrease the power of dark networks. </p>
<p>This sounds radical and counter-intuitive, but the <a href="https://fee.org/articles/portugal-won-the-war-on-drugs-by-giving-it-up/">evidence from Portugal </a> speaks for itself.</p>
<p>Since the introduction of decriminalisation of drug use and possession, heroin use in the country has decreased dramatically as have the numbers of overdose. By <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2015/p0707-heroin-epidemic.html">contrast</a> in the US drug use disorders and drug markets are growing and spreading.</p>
<p>Aside from decriminalisation South Africans should also be talking about the treatment that’s available to people who use drugs, particularly those who have limited financial resources. The country’s public health system offers no proper treatment for drug use disorders, and it has very few public “rehabilitation” centres. Those that are operational have very <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1414718/">low retention and success rates</a>. In Durban, for example, there’s <a href="http://search.info4africa.org.za/Organisation?Id=87442">one public rehabilitation centre</a>. The waiting list to gain entry is very long and it lacks the medication to assist heroin users through withdrawal and ongoing medical maintenance.</p>
<h2>Moralistic narratives</h2>
<p>South Africa has found itself stuck in conservative moralistic narratives about drug use that do little to reduce the harms associated with drugs. Those with heroin use disorders are well aware that existing public health and social development facilities are ineffective and inadequate. </p>
<p>Users on the streets talked about the need for <a href="http://acttoronto.com/how-opioid-substitution-therapy-works/">opioid substitution therapy</a>. The word <a href="https://www.drugs.com/methadone.html">Methadone</a> came up constantly, a medicine that’s viewed as the only hope for detox and for long term maintenance. </p>
<p>Methadone and other opioid substitute medications represent the only hope for many with heroin use disorders. But these medications are currently not available in the public sector in South Africa, other than in <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2015-08-17-health-e-news-why-is-sa-not-offering-painless-withdrawal-to-drug-addicts/">one hospital</a> in Cape Town for a limited period of time and for a limited number of beneficiaries. This is despite the use of government issued Opioid Substitution Therapy (OST) more than 80 countries <a href="https://www.hri.global/contents/1739">worldwide</a>, some for more than 30 years. This list includes countries on the continent such as Tanzania, Mauritius, Kenya and Senegal.</p>
<p>It’s now fallen on universities and NGOs to establish low threshold OST Demonstration Projects. The first project begins in Durban in April 2017, run by the <a href="http://www.dut.ac.za/faculty/engineering/urban_futures/">Urban Futures Centre</a> at the Durban University of Technology, together with <a href="http://www.tbhivcare.org/">TB/HIV Care Association</a>.</p>
<p>The Durban OST Demonstration Project has support from both the KwaZulu-Natal and National Department of Health, although not at a financial level. This OST Demonstration Project will use Methadone supplied by Equity Pharmaceuticals and will have a cohort of 50 beneficiaries, all of whom will be from very low income circumstances. This project is guided by very comprehensive protocols which have received ethical clearance from both the KZN Department of Health and the Durban University of Technology. </p>
<p>There have also been public debates, dialogues with police and robust engagements with government officials particularly from the departments of health and social development. As a result views on drug use disorders are slowly shifting, at least in the minds of some key players. </p>
<p>History <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/29/prohibition-doesnt-work-uk-needs-enlightened-drugs-policy">teaches</a> us time and again that prohibition and silencing seldom had good results. The moment is here to be bold and to ensure that the rights of the most vulnerable are protected and that they are provided the scaffolding (medical and otherwise) to lead productive and connected lives.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74562/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Monique Marks receives funding from the National Institute of Humanities and Social Science, Mainline, and Open Society Foundation </span></em></p>Portugal won the war on drugs by giving up. What lessons can South Africa learn from their approach?Monique Marks, Head of Urban Futures Centre, Durban University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/711062017-02-15T13:44:54Z2017-02-15T13:44:54ZPropaganda in Portugal’s colonies: lessons for the West today<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/156631/original/image-20170213-15806-16ecpl7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The official Angolan broadcaster, or Emissora Oficial de Angola, under construction between 1963-67.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Fernão Simões de Carvalho</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>“Revolt begins where the road ends.” This sums up the thoughts of a Portuguese general on the counterinsurgency strategy in the 1960s against nationalist movements in the country’s former African colonies of Angola, Guinea Bissau and Mozambique. </p>
<p>When most other African countries had liberated themselves from Europe’s colonial yoke, Portugal, one of the earliest colonisers and the poor man of Europe, insisted on retaining its empire. Drawing on research for my <a href="https://history.indiana.edu/news-events/news/news_2016_11_04.html">upcoming book</a> “Powerful Frequencies: Radio, State, and the Cold War in Angola, 1931-2002”, this article looks at the relationship between military radio propaganda of counterinsurgency to draw some lessons for today’s wars.</p>
<p>Counterinsurgency has garnered renewed attention in the wake of ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Invading Western powers desperately need the cooperation of local populations to fight Iraqi guerrilla insurgents resisting US occupation and Afghani Taliban (along with a congeries of tribal allies and opium traders). </p>
<p>Western military brass and policy wonks repeatedly appeal to the historical, anti-colonial struggles and the counterinsurgency strategies European and US imperialists deployed against local populations as relevant case studies for contemporary wars. Recall, for example, that <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2003/09/07/weekinreview/the-world-film-studies-what-does-the-pentagon-see-in-battle-of-algiers.html">the Pentagon screened</a> Gillo Pontecorvo’s “The Battle of Algiers” in 2003 to raise the issues of infiltration, interrogation and torture of insurrectionary forces in Iraq. </p>
<p>At the core of all these strategies, old and new, is the blurring of civilian and military practices. Put differently, under these circumstances development is just another word for counterinsurgency. Reform (for civilians) and repression (for rebels), the twin prongs of this strategy, are more intertwined than they are parallel tines. </p>
<p>Bromides about the future are aimed at dulling the violence of forced removals, spying on one’s neighbours and family, and the militarisation of everyday life. Indeed the vaunted progress – roads constructed, homes built, fields tilled – are built on and through big and small acts of violence. The <a href="http://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/U/bo5748917.html">US Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual</a>, (2006), the first to be published in 20 years, offers a tidy dyad in its foreword: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Soldiers and marines are expected to be nation builders as well as warriors. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Anti-colonial radio and the state</h2>
<p>In late colonial Angola, radio (the object and the institution), blared the contradictions of this kind of counterinsurgency programme and sounded out the fragmented nature of the colonial state. </p>
<p>One plank of counterinsurgency was what the Portuguese military referred to as <a href="http://www.guerracolonial.org/index.php?content=234">“psychological action”</a>. Crafted in the information trenches, psychological action had three targets:</p>
<ol>
<li>Civilians – win their hearts and minds;</li>
<li>Rebel combatants – demoralise them and encourage desertion; and</li>
<li>Colonial soldiers – maintain their morale and loyalty. </li>
</ol>
<p>Plainly put, this was propaganda. Both sides used it. The Portuguese almost always played catch up. Military <a href="http://psimg.jstor.org/fsi/img/pdf/t0/10.5555/al.sff.document.ufbmp1004_final.pdf">reports</a> from a Counterinsurgency Commission held in 1968-1969 point to the effective histories and radio broadcasts of guerrilla movements. They refer in particular to the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) based in Brazzaville and the need to counteract their transmissions.</p>
<p>The MPLA had been broadcasting guerrilla radio from the mid-1960s via the state radios of the Congo Republic in Brazzaville. Brazzaville, once the site of Charles DeGaulle’s <a href="https://global.britannica.com/topic/Free-French">Free French</a> government-in-exile during the Second World War, had the largest transmitter on the continent. The National Front for the Liberation of Angola (FNLA) did much less from their Kinshasa base in Zaire.</p>
<p>MPLA cadres received some training in Algeria. This, with their already Marxist and anti-colonial orientation, meant the programming on Angola Combatente (Fighting Angola) broadcast critiques of colonial occupation and its capitalist ends. It also sent secret messages to movement militants working clandestinely and appealed to Portuguese soldiers to desert. </p>
<p>The FNLA’s Voz Livre de Angola (The Free Voice of Angola) served primarily as a community station for the many African exiles from Angola in the area. The Portuguese secret police (PIDE) faithfully listened and transcribed. Only later, after the Counterinsurgency Commission, did the military develop its own radio propaganda. </p>
<p>The colonial state played a reactive game. They employed various media: radio, newspapers, pamphlets and posters. In Mozambique for example, loudspeakers mounted in aeroplanes as part of Operation Gordian Knot, was the largest and most successful Portuguese counterinsurgency effort. It was based on US counterinsurgency in Vietnam. </p>
<p>The Military Information Secretariat produced news that local papers printed. It was also relayed on civilian radio stations and was loosely coordinated through the official Angolan broadcaster, the EOA or Emissora Oficial de Angola. </p>
<h2>Broadcasting in Angola - the longer view</h2>
<p>A vast network of radio broadcasters, largely member based radio clubs, developed in Angola from the 1930s. By the 1950s each region of Angola had a least one radio club. This meant a total of 10 broadcasters for a white settler population that reached nearly half a million by the early 1970s. They were also served by a commercial station, another belonging to the diamond mining company Diamang, and the EOA.</p>
<p>Member based groups drew from radio enthusiasts, the local business elite, and, increasingly, young folks. Every club was different in structure and size. While they broadcast in Portuguese, their main focus was local events: football games, car races and radio plays. Many also organised live musical events. </p>
<p>They often implored the colonial state for financial support and strategically lauded Portuguese Prime Minister António Salazar and the work of empire. Yet, radio club broadcasters were largely (though not entirely) deaf to the nationalist cause. Still, these young men and women created a dynamic network and vibrant modernity. If clubs found their broadcasters pressed into broadcasting counterinsurgency messages, it seemed a small price to pay. </p>
<p>The official EOA opened in the early 1950s (then too a settler initiative). But <a href="http://www.newworldencyclopedia.org/entry/Portuguese_Colonial_War">the war</a> made it more of a priority. The Plan for Radio Broadcasting in Angola, established in 1961 a few short months after the war erupted, attempted to fortify broadcasting structures. The plan was a long term, shifting set of goals. It was grounded in infrastructure and targeted at increasing the state’s broadcasting range. </p>
<p>It put broadcasting in the hands of the Centre for Information and Tourism and the Post Office. But archival files show a jumble of voices and interests. Broadcasters, military and secret police varied in their ideas about how and what radio should do.</p>
<h2>We’re jamming</h2>
<p>Despite the largely discredited practice of jamming, some military and police figures continued to advocate it well into the late 1960s. Blocking the signal of the guerrilla radios was inefficient and expensive. </p>
<p>But broadcasters from the national broadcaster – Emissora Nacional – in Lisbon, rich in expertise but poor in structural authority, argued for propaganda produced by an autonomous body, not the EOA. Propaganda required nimble structures, free of the state’s imprimatur and staid sound.</p>
<p>In the end, broadcasting policy came down on the side of technological solutions to political problems. Even as the military and secret police argued for responsive forms of counterinsurgency, state policy around broadcasting opted for concrete solutions.</p>
<h2>Fast forward to today</h2>
<p>The lesson for today is the obvious one. But the one still not learned. No matter how slick the Field Manuals sound and how well they shill the idea that occupying militaries can purvey both violence and the building of a state, the contradictions and complications ultimately undo the best of intentions. You cannot introduce development surrounded by concertina wire or democracy with drones buzzing overhead. And neither will technology fix political problems, which are essentially human.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71106/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marissa J. Moorman receives funding from Fulbright Hayes Faculty Fellowship and the American Council of Learned Societies Fellowship in 2010-2011 for research.</span></em></p>Portugal used radio propaganda in its colonies in the 1960s against local liberation movements. Decades later there are still lessons to be learned for occupying armies from their failed strategies.Marissa J. Moorman, Associate Professor of History, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/716472017-01-20T18:10:41Z2017-01-20T18:10:41ZThe left’s response to Trump and alt-right must be international<p>With Donald Trump’s inauguration as American president, one more event considered by many to be beyond the realm of possibility has come to pass. Protests <a href="http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-inauguration-protests-20170119-story.html">may have been</a> taking place in America and around the world, but the crisis of the left is all too apparent. </p>
<p>The social democrats have long since accepted the right’s tenets of globalisation and deregulation. They offer a managerial capitalism where taxes from a marketised system are used to sustain and, where possible, expand the welfare state within national boundaries. This looks almost meaningless in the face of an ageing population, as Western economies compete for jobs and investment with resurgent Asia and struggle for growth. The more radical left has meanwhile found a foothold in some countries, but it has tended towards protest rather than offering a genuine alternative. </p>
<p>I believe these groups have to return to something central to their 19th-century <a href="https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1845/german-ideology/">founding principles</a> that has been overlooked. A global problem does not need the response of national movements but rather a fully coordinated international movement. The challenge for the left is to bring this about. </p>
<h2>Left in the cold</h2>
<p>The story of our times is the journey of socialism during the 20th century. It transformed from an explicitly international movement dedicated to radical alternatives to the status quo into political parties confined within national boundaries. These focused on raising and managing resources for public services and welfare within a global capitalist order forged on globalisation and technological change. </p>
<p>The abject <a href="http://en.internationalism.org/internationalreview/201502/12081/1914-how-2nd-international-failed">failure</a> of a planned Europe-wide general strike on the eve of World War I was an early portent. By the 2008 financial crisis, the absence of any serious discussion, let alone an attempt, to mobilise a cross-national movement to combat austerity even within the eurozone was a severe indictment of European social democracy. Governments run by social democrat parties colluded in institutional processes that led to harsh austerity in <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/can-europe-make-it/austerity-ireland-europe-open-your-eyes">Ireland</a>, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c65d21a2-703d-11e6-9ac1-1055824ca907">Portugal</a>, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/30/mariano-rajoy-re-elected-as-spains-prime-minister-as-thousands-o/">Spain</a> and <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/greece-anti-austerity-measures-incur-creditors-wrath-161215210859640.html">Greece</a>. </p>
<p>Movements like Syriza in Greece and Podemos in Spain mobilised national anti-austerity coalitions but had little to say about coordinated action. In the US, Bernie Sanders’ take on democratic socialism <a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/commentary/ct-bernie-sanders-democratic-socialism-20160223-story.html">builds on</a> guaranteeing the economic rights of all Americans. Jeremy Corbyn and his leftist colleagues in the Labour Party also <a href="https://theconversation.com/facing-a-hostile-press-jeremy-corbyn-cant-win-but-he-could-at-least-try-63557">oppose</a> UK austerity and pay plenty of lip service to international solidarity, but they are not trying to bring it about. Movements such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/anarchy-in-the-usa-five-years-on-the-legacy-of-occupy-wall-street-and-what-it-can-teach-us-in-the-age-of-trump-68452">Occupy</a> did try to coordinate internationally, but focused on the symptoms of the problem and not the causes. Why this global failure?</p>
<h2>The target constituency</h2>
<p>The left’s big conundrum is how to persuade the key voting constituency of the alt.right that it has a better solution to their problems. Populists, including Trump, Nigel Farage and Marine Le Pen, have primarily mobilised white voters on low to middle incomes working in skilled or semi-skilled jobs in industry and services or running small businesses – plus pensioners. Theresa May’s <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-shared-society-article-by-theresa-may">favoured term</a> for this group is people who are “just getting by”. </p>
<p>They have seen their incomes and future prospects stagnate; stable jobs in manufacturing replaced by lower-paying less stable ones in services; and their access to welfare become restricted – and even contested – following the financial crisis. </p>
<p>This has stoked their opposition to mass immigration, political correctness and reckless banks and corporations. They increasingly believe the welfare state shouldn’t give special treatment to minorities or the “undeserving poor”. They are patriotic both for cultural reasons and because they believe the nation state can protect them against the excesses of globalisation and technological change. </p>
<p>In other words, they agree with many of the key arguments of the left’s critique of global capitalism but believe in an isolationist solution. As Trump put it simply during his inauguration speech, “America first”. </p>
<p>The left has to convince them that the protection they believe they receive from the nation state is temporary. The huge problem facing Western democracies is that their populations <a href="http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/ageing/WPA2015_Report.pdf">are getting older</a> and therefore need more workers to sustain them – low birth rates dictate that these workforces have to come from other countries. Leaders like Trump may temporarily reduce immigration, but you can only defy gravity for so long. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, economic theory <a href="http://internationalecon.com/Trade/Tch60/T60-14.php">makes clear</a> that in a relatively free global market, there would be a tendency for people with similar skills to get paid the same. An often-cited example <a href="http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/120457/2/jaae453.pdf">is that</a> following the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), unskilled labour wages gradually fell in the US while rising in Mexico. In an era of globalisation and technological change, until workers with similar skills in the East and South receive wages on a par with those in the West, those people “just getting by” can expect their standard of living to keep falling. </p>
<p>One of the main consequences of globalisation is that it has created a world market in which workers in different countries see themselves as competing for wages, jobs and investment. This has exacerbated divisions that help to explain why coordinated international action is never even mentioned as a possibility – never mind that smartphones and the internet could make it much easier than for previous generations.</p>
<h2>Common interests</h2>
<p>The answer is for people to stop competing with workers in other countries and start recognising their common interest in winning a greater share of global wealth. This means everything from coordinated wage bargaining positions within multinationals and global supply chains to eurozone-wide general strikes against austerity. It means that retail workers on zero-hours contracts selling clothes made by Bangladeshi sweatshop workers need to recognise their common interests and mobilise to act together. </p>
<p>Political entrepreneurs such as Trump have blurred the traditional differences between left-wing and right-wing concerns by offering a bulwark to the effects of change in an increasingly complex world. They have singled out migrants and minorities as the physical embodiment of the problem. The left’s big failure is not to explain or even perhaps understand why this is the wrong answer. There is no reason why it could not make Trump’s inauguration a line in the sand.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71647/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sayantan Ghosal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The people who voted for the new American president may not be as hard for the Left to reach as it may appear.Sayantan Ghosal, Professor of Economics, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/688682016-11-15T15:29:53Z2016-11-15T15:29:53ZGreece economy rallies while Germany stutters but restraint still required<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146072/original/image-20161115-31153-11zyfkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=157%2C0%2C842%2C486&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-273465113/stock-photo-flags-of-germany-and-greece-painted-on-cracked-wall.html?src=SJVs2YpUeOy5rU7c_bE-nA-1-49">danielo/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Finally, some good news from Greece. It appears that the long-running contraction of the country’s economy <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/15/greece-edges-out-of-recession-with-two-quarters-of-growth">has finally halted</a> and there is some hope it has begun to enjoy modest growth. There is no reason for too much elation just yet as the Greek public finances remain problematic. Even after three bailouts the Greek state labours under a heavy debt burden that will remain well over 170% of GDP for the foreseeable future. </p>
<p>Yields on Greek ten-year bonds – a measure of the market’s enthusiasm for the Greek economy – have not dropped below 7%, and remember, this is the interest rate in euros, not a particularly inflation-prone currency. The good news has so far had no appreciable effect. By comparison, though the German economy has stuttered this quarter, German yields have been well below 0.5% – the difference is the quite elevated risk of Greek default anywhere between now and 2026.</p>
<p>The Greek <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/eurozone-greece-gdp-idUSL8N1DF2ZC">statistics service data</a> showed an estimate for economic growth in the third quarter of 0.5%. In the second quarter, the rise in gross domestic product was revised up to 0.3%. In Germany, meanwhile, the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37984719">Federal Statistics Office reported</a> a halving of GDP growth, to 0.2% in the third quarter from 0.4% in the second as weaker exports weighed on the numbers.</p>
<h2>Reshuffle</h2>
<p>The growth in Greece is in some ways inevitable. An economy can only fall so far when it can rely on some measure of debt relief. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras understands that implementing the reforms he has promised to obtain support will become progressively more difficult. He <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/06/greek-prime-minister-tsipras-reshuffles-cabinet-to-boost-bailout-reforms">recently reshuffled his cabinet</a> to retain the goodwill he still needs from the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank (ECB) and his EU partners. </p>
<p>Perhaps his mind was focused by the way Portugal nearly lost access to the ECB’s quantitative easing programme last month after the last of four ratings agencies threatened to downgrade its debt below investment grade. That followed the introduction of a raft of populist policies by its socialist government this year, <a href="http://www.dbrs.com/industry/10036">reversing the downward trend</a> in its debt burden. This could still happen even though the country just chalked up its <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/15/euro-zones-economy-grows-03-percent-in-third-quarter-up-16-percent-on-last-year.html">fastest growth since 2013 last quarter</a>.</p>
<p>Even if all goes according to plan, this Greek saga will last well past the middle of the century. In 2054 the Greek state will pay the European Financial Stability Facility €6.3 billion and over €1 billion a year to the European Stability Mechanism in each of the five years that follow. Again, that is if everything goes to plan, and that is over a very long and uncertain planning horizon. And so despite the relatively good news coming out of Greece today, the markets remain rightly very cautious about the future of its finances. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146074/original/image-20161115-31129-9fg5d4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146074/original/image-20161115-31129-9fg5d4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146074/original/image-20161115-31129-9fg5d4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146074/original/image-20161115-31129-9fg5d4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146074/original/image-20161115-31129-9fg5d4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146074/original/image-20161115-31129-9fg5d4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146074/original/image-20161115-31129-9fg5d4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146074/original/image-20161115-31129-9fg5d4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Caution remains high in debt markets.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-279555938/stock-photo-stock-exchange-chart-graph-finance-business-background-abstract-stock-market-diagram-candle-bars-trade.html?src=aHt0a2TufjOii11Jv3yXuQ-1-14">autsawin uttisin/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Spending patterns</h2>
<p>There is a lesson here for others. Conventional wisdom <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/opinion/paul-krugman-debt-is-good-for-the-economy.html?_r=0">these days holds</a> that Western countries can safely remove the shackles of austerity and borrow to invest (proponents of government spending always use the word “invest” never “spend”). The rationale goes that this is because interest rates are so low that the borrowing amounts to “free money”. </p>
<p>It is wise to remember that not only do the interest payments need to be paid but the principal will need to be either repaid or (more likely) one day refinanced when interest rates are not so low. With its low debt burden, Germany can suffer even a severe recession and still not face a debt crisis, but if Greece experiences even a mild downturn it will need further bailouts.</p>
<p>Some projects may have the effect of growing the economy by enough to justify this extra burden, but this is not “free money”. Because that’s the thing about money, it is never really free. One thing that unites the politicians of the right and the left, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Theresa May, François Hollande and Jeremy Corbyn, is the belief that tomorrow, or indeed the year 2059 will never come. At least it will only come long after they are gone.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68868/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Ben-Gad does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Athens can celebrate two consecutive quarters of growth. Berlin must stomach some weakness. Everyone should remember cheap money isn’t free money.Michael Ben-Gad, Professor of Economics, City, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.