tag:theconversation.com,2011:/nz/topics/racial-politics-43944/articlesracial politics – The Conversation2020-11-19T14:38:03Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1502962020-11-19T14:38:03Z2020-11-19T14:38:03ZSouth Africa’s main opposition party caught in an unenviable political bind<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370049/original/file-20201118-15-12vkytv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A real problem for the Democratic Alliance is that it cannot hope to displace the dominant African National Congress.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA/Kevin Sutherland</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The results of the recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-by-elections-in-south-africa-say-about-the-ruling-party-and-the-state-of-opposition-150314">municipal by-elections</a> have confirmed that the Democratic Alliance (DA), South Africa’s leading opposition party, is in trouble. Whereas the governing African National Congress (ANC) retained 64 wards, won six new ones and lost just two, the DA retained 14, won just two new ones, and lost nine, mainly to smaller opposition parties. And the party has been making headlines for all the wrong reasons.</p>
<p>Although it ran a slick virtual federal congress <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2020-10-31-south-africas-slickest-political-show-goes-virtual-in-impressive-style/">in October</a> at which <a href="https://www.pa.org.za/person/john-henry-steenhuisen/">John Steenhuisen</a> trounced <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/my-youth-age-and-race-are-a-great-advantage-for-any-leader-mbali-ntuli-20201026">Mbali Ntuli</a> by securing the <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2020/11/01/john-steenhuisen-elected-da-s-new-leader">backing of 80%</a> of those who voted in a party leadership contest, it attracted <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/columnists/adriaanbasson/adriaan-basson-why-is-the-da-afraid-to-let-ntuli-debate-steenhuisen-in-public-20201026">negative headlines</a> by preventing the pair from holding virtual “town halls” in the lead-up to the vote. It then restricted viewership of the two contestants’ debate at the congress itself to its members, rather than to the public at large. </p>
<p>The congress also turned down the proposal that the party appoint a deputy leader, a position which Ntuli might confidently have been expected to fill (and thereby posture as future leader-in-waiting).</p>
<p>This congress took place following a string of high-profile resignations by prominent <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/moodey-resigns-from-da-laments-partys-defence-of-white-interests-4a7a1af0-ef42-4a11-8bbf-a47cd7525113">black members</a> of the party since <a href="https://theconversation.com/imposter-syndrome-explains-why-first-black-leader-of-south-africas-main-opposition-party-quit-125826">the resignation as leader</a> of Mmusi Maimane after the 2019 general election. The party registered a first decline in its percentage vote <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-2019-poll-showed-dangerous-signs-of-insiders-and-outsiders-121758">since 1994</a>.</p>
<p>Steenhuisen’s election was matched by the congress simultaneously making a contentious change to its policies. It now <a href="https://www.da.org.za/2020/09/da-is-the-party-of-economic-inclusion">renounces the use of “race”</a> as a means of identifying and empowering categories of people who suffered historical disadvantage under apartheid. This was merely the latest shift in the party’s long-running agonising about how to tackle racial disadvantage.</p>
<h2>Politics of ‘race’</h2>
<p>First introduced during the years of <a href="https://www.uj.ac.za/newandevents/Pages/DAmovestoattractmoreblackvoters20111034.aspx">Helen Zille’s leadership</a>, in a bid to attract black support and enable the DA to grow, the forswearing of “race” at the congress was now hailed as a return to <a href="https://theconversation.com/liberalism-in-south-africa-isnt-only-for-white-people-or-black-people-who-want-to-be-white-125236">liberal principles</a>. The party’s head of policy, <a href="https://www.pa.org.za/person/amanda-ngwenya/">Gwen Ngwenya</a>, <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2020-09-08-da-policy-conference-ditching-race-based-policies-amid-a-racial-storm/">described the move</a> as the abandonment of</p>
<blockquote>
<p>a false binary option of choosing between non-racialism or redress.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Instead, she said, the party was introducing an economic justice policy which would implement both (basically by substituting educational, social background and income criteria for “race”).</p>
<p>Since the congress, the DA has been widely accused of <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-south-africas-white-liberals-dodge-honest-debates-about-race-127846">“race denialism” </a>. For instance, University of Johannesburg professor of politics Steven Friedman, commenting on the message of the US elections for South Africa, argued that the elections showed it was impossible to make non-racialism a reality if race and racism <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/columnists/2020-11-10-steven-friedman-growing-racial-divide-in-us-sends-important-message-to-sa/">remain a reality</a>. </p>
<p>He did not state it explicitly, but this was a clear dig at the DA. Yet Friedman might well be one of those who in a university context might be happy to argue that “class” criteria should trump “racial” ones for admission of students. In short, as sociologist Gerry Mare has indicated in a celebrated book, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Declassified-Moving-Beyond-Dead-End-Africa/dp/1431420204"><em>Declassified</em></a>, there is a fundamental contradiction involved in attempting to overcome apartheid-era disadvantage by using apartheid era “race thinking”.</p>
<p>This is a contradiction which progressives continue to wrestle with, and the DA cannot be fairly criticised for attempting to overcome it in policy terms. </p>
<h2>The DA’s dilemma</h2>
<p>Critics would probably accept this but would then likely introduce a qualification: the DA has introduced the change in policy for the wrong reasons. In other words, it is attempting to assuage white racism in the party by eliminating racial criteria from its policy for counteracting historical disadvantage. “Heads you win”, would claim the DA, “tails we lose”.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, there is a substantial issue here. The very real problem for the DA is that it can never aspire to displacing the dominant ANC, whether on its own or as part of a wider opposition coalition, without attracting more black votes.</p>
<p>Under the leadership of <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/people/anthony-james-tony-leon">Tony Leon</a>, it established itself as the major party of opposition by capturing the racialised constituency of the <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/national-party-np">National Party</a>, leading ultimately to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/partys-woes-signify-historical-dilemma-of-south-africas-liberals-126358">latter’s demise</a>. Yet the DA’s 1999 <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/sundayindependent/das-history-of-identity-crises-1611459">“fight back!”</a> electoral slogan inevitably alienated potential black voters. This forced the party to realise that its only sure route to growth was attracting black African support.</p>
<p>This was to become the project of the Zille leadership, and was to prove not unsuccessful. The DA support base continued to grow through <a href="https://pari.org.za/book-launch-election-2019-change-and-stability-in-south-africas-democracy/">successive elections</a>. A significant segment of primarily black middle class support became attached to the party’s base among racial minorities. This provided the platform for Maimane’s elevation to the leadership.</p>
<p>Yet it’s now clear that the experiment has gone badly awry. Although the DA can correctly claim to have become the most racially diverse party in South Africa, it is regularly <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2016-01-28-das-black-leaders-live-with-racism/">accused of racism</a>. This may or not be fair, but it’s politics.</p>
<p>The outcome of the DA’s recent turmoil has been a classically South African one: the formation by former DA Johannesburg mayor Herman Mashaba of what is, in essence, a black liberal party (<a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/herman-mashaba-launches-new-party-promises-to-bring-back-the-scorpions-88402191-dd03-43d9-b239-aed5b1649c36">Action SA</a>) to match the “white” one. </p>
<p>The omens are that this will drain black support from the DA as well as attracting votes of blacks wanting to desert the ANC. Its rise will confirm the DA on what many see as its likely future trajectory: as primarily representing South Africa’s racial minorities and defending its redoubt in the Western Cape in the <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/electoral-commission-welcomes-start-public-consultations-draft-wards-local-government">2021 local government elections</a>.</p>
<h2>Unenviable position</h2>
<p>The problem for the DA is not one of policy. There is real substance in its commitment to substituting “non-racial” for racial criteria for overcoming the historical disadvantages associated with being black. The real challenge is the one that has always confronted liberalism in South Africa’s racially structured society: liberalism has never been able to detach itself from its image among blacks that it is a cover for white interests and white “leadership”. </p>
<p>An established narrative argues that <a href="https://iop.harvard.edu/fellows/lindiwe-mazibuko">Lindiwe Mazibuko</a>, Mmusi Maimane, <a href="https://www.gov.za/about-government/contact-directory/public-works-and-infrastructure-ministry/patricia-de-lille-ms">Patricia De Lille</a>, Herman Mashaba – black people who all achieved leadership positions within the DA – were all undermined by a <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/sundayindependent/analysis/da-is-still-looking-after-white-interests-14949941">backroom white leadership cabal</a>. The cabal allegedly wanted to control them as puppets on a string. So now, the narrative continues, under Steenhuizen, decent man that he may be, the party is simply reverting to type: a party for whites, led by whites.</p>
<p>Although the DA seemingly possesses an uncanny ability to shoot itself in the foot, its real dilemma is how to escape a vicious circle. When it sought to attract black voters by <a href="https://www.da.org.za/2018/08/das-position-on-economic-empowerment">endorsing</a> <a href="http://www.economic.gov.za/about-us/programmes/economic-policy-development/b-bbee">“black empowerment”</a>, it alienated white voters to the right and classic liberals. When it abandons “racial criteria” as a proxy for disadvantage, it alienates its potential support base among the black middle class.</p>
<p>The DA occupies an unenviable political space from which there is no obvious route of escape.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150296/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Southall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The problem for the Democratic Alliance is not one of policy. There is real substance in its commitment to substituting racial criteria for overcoming historical disadvantage.Roger Southall, Professor of Sociology, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1493272020-11-07T16:44:21Z2020-11-07T16:44:21ZBiden wins – experts on what it means for race relations, US foreign policy and the Supreme Court<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368123/original/file-20201108-13-b8xjok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C5697%2C3807&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President-elect Biden promises a new White House agenda and style.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2020Biden/63f55822214f40d7b3efd886e544102d/photo?Query=biden%20harris%20stage&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=114&currentItemNo=31">AP Photo/Andrew Harnik</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The American public has had its say and for the first time in a generation denied a sitting president a second term.</em></p>
<p><em>President Donald Trump’s tenure lasted just four years, but in that time he dragged policy on an array of key issues in a dramatic new direction.</em></p>
<p><em>Joe Biden’s victory, <a href="https://twitter.com/AP/status/1325112826072084480">confirmed by the Associated Press late morning on Nov. 7</a>, presents an opportunity to reset the White House agenda and put it on a different course.</em> </p>
<p><em>Three scholars discuss what a Biden presidency may have in store in three key areas: race, the Supreme Court and foreign policy.</em></p>
<h2>Racism, policing and Black Lives Matter protests</h2>
<p><strong>Brian Purnell, Bowdoin College</strong></p>
<p>The next four years under a Biden administration will likely see improvements in racial justice. But to many, it will be a low bar to clear: President Donald Trump <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmaZR8E12bs">downplayed racist violence</a>, <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/09/30/metro/trumps-american-horror-story-proud-boys-stand-back-stand-by/">egged on right-wing extremists</a> and described Black Lives Matter as a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-53261067">“symbol of hate”</a> during his four-year tenure.</p>
<p>Indeed, according to polls, most Americans agree that <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/poll-shows-views-on-race-relations-under-trump-are-generally-bad-2019-07-16">race relations have deteriorated</a> <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/06/05/871083543/americans-say-president-trump-has-worsened-race-relations-since-george-floyds-de">under Trump</a>.</p>
<p>Still, Biden is in some ways an unlikely president to advance a progressive racial agenda. In the 1970s, he <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/15/us/politics/biden-busing.html">opposed busing plans</a> and stymied school desegregation efforts in Delaware, his home state. And in the mid-1990s he <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/08/28/did-the-1994-crime-bill-cause-mass-incarceration/">championed a federal crime bill that made incarceration rates for Black people</a> worse. He <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/441408-timeline-a-history-of-the-joe-biden-anita-hill-controversy">bungled the hearings that brought Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court</a> by allowing Republican senators to dismiss Anita Hill’s damning testimony of Thomas’ sexual harassment and by failing to allow other Black women to testify.</p>
<p>But that was then.</p>
<p>During the 2020 campaign, President-elect Biden consistently spoke about problems stemming from systemic racism. Many voters will be hoping that <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/8/19/21372408/joe-biden-racial-justice-policy">his actions over the next four years must match his campaign words</a>.</p>
<p>One area that the Biden administration will surely address is policing and racial justice. The Justice Department can bring accountability to police reform by returning to practices the Obama administration put in place to <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/the-obama-justice-department-had-a-plan-to-hold-police-accountable-for-abuses-the-trump-doj-has-undermined-it">monitor and reform police departments</a>, such as the use of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/justice-department-has-a-tool-to-make-police-forces-better-its-not-using-it/2020/06/02/96caf940-a451-11ea-8681-7d471bf20207_story.html">consent degrees</a>. More difficult reforms require redressing <a href="https://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/locked-out-2020-estimates-of-people-denied-voting-rights-due-to-a-felony-conviction/">how mass incarceration caused widespread voter disenfranchisement</a> in Black American and Latino communities. </p>
<p>“My administration will incentivize states to automatically restore voting rights for individuals convicted of felonies once they have served their sentences,” Biden <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/policy-2020/voting-changes/felon-disenfranchisement/">told The Washington Post</a>.</p>
<p>The killing of George Floyd earlier this year <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/george-floyd-systemic-change-conservatives-090050841.html">reinvigorated talk of addressing systemic racial discrimination through fundamental changes</a> in how police departments hold officers accountable for misconduct and excessive force. It is unclear how far President-elect Biden will walk down this road. But evoking the words of the late civil rights icon and Congressman John Lewis, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEnwjnsnpHc">he at least suggested at the Democratic National Convention</a> that America was ready to do the hard work of “rooting out systemic racism.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A portrait of George Floyd is seen during a Black Lives Matter protest on June 17, 2020 in the Manhattan borough of New York City." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367836/original/file-20201105-21-5li2pu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367836/original/file-20201105-21-5li2pu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367836/original/file-20201105-21-5li2pu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367836/original/file-20201105-21-5li2pu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367836/original/file-20201105-21-5li2pu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367836/original/file-20201105-21-5li2pu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367836/original/file-20201105-21-5li2pu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">After George Floyd’s death, how far will Biden go to address systemic racism?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/portrait-of-george-floyd-is-seen-during-a-black-lives-news-photo/1220775276?adppopup=true">Jeenah Moon/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Biden can help address how <a href="http://kirwaninstitute.osu.edu/research/understanding-implicit-bias/">Americans think about and deal with unexamined racial biases</a> through reversing <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-combating-race-sex-stereotyping/">the previous administration’s executive order</a> banning anti-racism training and workshops. In so doing, Biden can build on <a href="https://implicit.harvard.edu/implicit/faqs.html">psychological research on bias</a> to make American workplaces, schools and government agencies equitable, just places. </p>
<p>Making progress fighting systemic racism will be a slow, uphill battle. A more immediate benefit to communities of color could come through <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/28/928392673/coronavirus-is-a-key-campaign-issue-whats-joe-biden-s-plan">Biden’s COVID-19 pandemic response</a> – the Trump administration’s failure to stanch the spread of the coronavirus has <a href="https://www.apmresearchlab.org/covid/deaths-by-race">led to deaths</a> and economic consequences that have disproportionately fallen on racial and ethnic minorities.</p>
<p>On matters of race relations in the U.S., most Americans would agree that the era of Trump <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/318851/perceptions-white-black-relations-sink-new-low.aspx">saw the picture worsen</a>. The good news for Biden as president is there is nowhere to go but up. </p>
<h2>The Supreme Court</h2>
<p><strong>Morgan Marietta, University of Massachusetts Lowell</strong></p>
<p>Despite the fact that American voters have given Democrats control of the presidency, the conservative Supreme Court will continue to rule on the nature and extent of constitutional rights. </p>
<p>These liberties are considered by the court to be “<a href="https://tile.loc.gov/storage-services/service/ll/usrep/usrep319/usrep319624/usrep319624.pdf#page=15">beyond the reach of majorities</a>,” meaning they are intended to be immune from the changing beliefs of the electorate.</p>
<p>However, appointees of Democrats and Republicans tend to have very different views on which rights the Constitution protects and which are left to majority rule.</p>
<p>The dominant judicial philosophy of the conservative majority – <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-originalism-debunking-the-myths-148488">originalism</a> – sees rights as powerful but limited. The protection of rights recognized explicitly by the Constitution, such as the freedoms of religion, speech and press and the freedom to bear arms, will likely grow stronger over the next four years. But the protection of expansive rights that the court has found in the phrase <a href="https://digitalcommons.law.yale.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=5238&context=ylj">“due process of law” in the 14th Amendment</a>, including privacy or reproductive rights, may well contract. </p>
<p>The Biden administration will probably not agree with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/3-ways-a-6-3-supreme-court-would-be-different-146558">court’s future rulings</a> on voting rights, gay rights, religious rights or the rights of noncitizens. Ditto for any rulings on abortion, guns, the death penalty and immigration. But there is little President-elect Biden can do to control the independent judiciary.</p>
<p>Unhappy with what a strong conservative majority on the court may do – including <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-democrats-and-health-policy-experts-believe-the-barrett-confirmation-rush-is-about-getting-rid-of-the-affordable-care-act-3-essential-reads-148438">possibly overturning the Affordable Care Act</a> – many Democrats have advocated radical approaches to altering what the court looks like and how it operates, though Biden himself has not stated a clear position. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Judge Amy Coney Barrett talks with Supreme Court Associate Justice Clarence Thomas during her ceremonial swearing-in ceremony to be U.S. Supreme Court." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367839/original/file-20201105-21-jynrci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367839/original/file-20201105-21-jynrci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367839/original/file-20201105-21-jynrci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367839/original/file-20201105-21-jynrci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367839/original/file-20201105-21-jynrci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367839/original/file-20201105-21-jynrci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367839/original/file-20201105-21-jynrci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How will President-elect Biden respond to the appointment of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/judge-amy-coney-barrett-talks-with-supreme-court-associate-news-photo/1282403922?adppopup=true">Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Suggested options include <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2020/09/house-democrats-to-introduce-new-bill-for-supreme-court-term-limits/">term limits</a>, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/09/supreme-court-retirement-age/616458/">adding a retirement age</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-06/to-rein-in-supreme-court-some-democrats-consider-jurisdiction-stripping">stripping the jurisdiction</a> of the court for specific federal legislation, or increasing the size of the court. This strategy is known historically as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/19/us/politics/what-is-court-packing.html">court packing</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/07/24/744633713/justice-ginsburg-i-am-very-much-alive">Ruth Bader Ginsburg</a> opposed expanding the court, telling NPR in 2019 that “if anything would make the court look partisan, it would be … one side saying, ‘When we’re in power, we’re going to enlarge the number of judges, so we would have more people who would vote the way we want them to.’”</p>
<p>The Constitution does not establish the number of justices on the court, instead leaving that to Congress. The number has been set at nine since the 1800s, but Congress could pass a law <a href="https://theconversation.com/packing-the-court-amid-national-crises-lincoln-and-his-republicans-remade-the-supreme-court-to-fit-their-agenda-147139">expanding the number of justices</a> to 11 or 13, creating two or four new seats. </p>
<p>However, this requires agreement by both houses of Congress. </p>
<p>The GOP seems likely to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/04/politics/senate-election-results-frustrated-democrats/index.html">maintain a narrow control of the Senate</a>. A 50/50 split is possible, but that won’t be clear until January when Georgia holds two runoff elections. Any of the proposed reforms of the court will be difficult, if not impossible, to pass under a divided Congress.</p>
<p>This leaves the Biden administration hoping for retirements that would gradually shift the ideological balance of the court.</p>
<p>One of the most likely may be <a href="https://www.oyez.org/justices/clarence_thomas">Justice Clarence Thomas, who is 72</a> and the longest-serving member of the current court. <a href="https://www.oyez.org/justices/samuel_a_alito_jr">Samuel Alito is 70</a> and <a href="https://www.oyez.org/justices/john_g_roberts_jr">Chief Justice John Roberts is 65</a>. In other professions, that may sound like people soon to retire, but at the Supreme Court that is less likely. With the other three conservative justices in their 40s or 50s, the Biden administration may be fully at odds with the court for some time to come.</p>
<h2>Foreign policy and defense</h2>
<p><strong>Neta Crawford, Boston University</strong></p>
<p>President-elect Biden has signaled he will do three things to reset the U.S.’s foreign policy. </p>
<p>First, Biden will change the tone of U.S. foreign relations. The Democratic Party platform called its section on military foreign policy “<a href="https://democrats.org/where-we-stand/party-platform/renewing-american-leadership/">renewing American leadership</a>” and emphasized diplomacy as a “tool of first resort.” </p>
<p>Biden seems to <a href="https://joebiden.com/americanleadership/#">sincerely believe in diplomacy</a> and is intent on repairing relations with U.S. allies that have been damaged over the last four years. Conversely, while Trump was, some say, too friendly with Russian President Vladimir Putin, calling him a “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/g20-june-2019-intl-hnk/h_0ac0caf83fde21799a2600d58fedea54">terrific person</a>,” Biden will likely take a harder line with Russia, at least rhetorically. </p>
<p>This change in tone will also likely include rejoining some of the treaties and international agreements that the United States abandoned under the Trump administration. The most important of these include <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/25/climate/biden-climate-change.html">the Paris Climate Agreement</a>, which the U.S. officially withdrew from on Nov. 4, and restoring funding to the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.</p>
<p>If the U.S. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russia-ready-to-freeze-total-number-of-warheads-for-one-year-to-extend-nuclear-pact-with-us/2020/10/20/2c0b06c0-12bc-11eb-a258-614acf2b906d_story.html">is to extend the New START nuclear weapons treaty</a>, the arms control deal with Russia due to expire in February, the incoming Biden administration would likely have to work with the outgoing administration on an extension. Biden has also signaled <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html">a willingness to rejoin the Iran nuclear deal</a> jettisoned by Trump, if and when the Iranians return to the limits on nuclear infrastructure imposed by the agreement. </p>
<p>Second, in contrast to the large increases in military spending under Trump, President-elect Biden may make modest cuts in the U.S. military budget. Although he has said that <a href="https://www.stripes.com/news/us/biden-says-us-must-maintain-small-force-in-middle-east-has-no-plans-for-major-defense-cuts-1.644631">cuts are not “inevitable</a>” under his presidency, Biden has hinted at a <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2020/09/11/biden-not-planning-defense-cuts-but-they-may-come-anyway/">smaller military presence</a> overseas and is likely to change some priorities at the Pentagon by, for instance, emphasizing high-tech weapons. If the Senate – which must ratify any treaties – flips to Democrats’ control, the Biden administration may take more ambitious steps in nuclear arms control by pursuing deeper cuts with Russia and ratifying the <a href="https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/ctbt/">Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="US soldiers arrive at the site of a car bomb attack that targeted a NATO coalition convoy in Kabul on September 24, 2017." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367831/original/file-20201105-15-5rgot6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367831/original/file-20201105-15-5rgot6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367831/original/file-20201105-15-5rgot6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367831/original/file-20201105-15-5rgot6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367831/original/file-20201105-15-5rgot6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367831/original/file-20201105-15-5rgot6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367831/original/file-20201105-15-5rgot6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Could Biden be the president who finally pulls all US troops out of Afghanistan?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/soldiers-arrives-at-the-site-of-a-car-bomb-attack-that-news-photo/852855218?adppopup=true">Wakil Kohsar/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Third, the Biden administration will likely continue some Bush, Obama and Trump foreign policy priorities. Specifically, while a Biden administration will seek to <a href="https://www.stripes.com/news/us/biden-says-us-must-maintain-small-force-in-middle-east-has-no-plans-for-major-defense-cuts-1.644631">end the war in Afghanistan</a>, the administration will keep a focus on defeating the Islamic State and al-Qaida. Biden has said that he would reduce the current 5,200 U.S. forces in Afghanistan <a href="https://www.stripes.com/news/us/biden-says-us-must-maintain-small-force-in-middle-east-has-no-plans-for-major-defense-cuts-1.644631">to 1,500-2,000 troops</a> operating in the region in a counterterrorism role. The Biden administration is likely to continue the massive <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nuclear-modernize-specialreport/special-report-in-modernizing-nuclear-arsenal-u-s-stokes-new-arms-race-idUSKBN1DL1AH">nuclear weapons modernization</a> and air and naval equipment modernization programs begun under the Obama administration and <a href="https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2079489/dod-releases-fiscal-year-2021-budget-proposal/">accelerated and expanded</a> under Trump, if only because they are <a href="https://insidedefense.com/insider/pentagon-analyzes-defense-spending-all-50-states">popular with members of Congress</a> who see the jobs they provide in their states.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>And like the Bush, Obama and Trump administrations, the Biden administration will prioritize the economic and military threats it believes are posed by China. But, consistent with its emphasis on diplomacy, the Biden administration will likely also work more to constrain China through diplomatic engagement and by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/22/world/asia/biden-china-election-trump.html">working with U.S. allies</a> in the region.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149327/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scholars of race, foreign policy and the Supreme Court give their informed predictions of what to expect under a Biden administration.Brian J Purnell, Associate Professor of Africana Studies and History, Bowdoin CollegeMorgan Marietta, Associate Professor of Political Science, UMass LowellNeta C. Crawford, Professor of Political Science and Department Chair, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1323792020-02-26T14:24:30Z2020-02-26T14:24:30ZIs dangerous thinking about race and IQ at the heart of UK government?<p>An outrageous, racist and outdated belief in the innate intellectual inferiority of black people periodically re-enters public debate, usually masquerading as a bold initiative at the forefront of science; challenging convention and thinking the unthinkable. </p>
<p>A 27-year-old called Andrew Sabisky provides the latest example. In a matter of days, this Downing Street aide joined, then quit, the UK government’s policy machine after a series of controversial past comments came to light. It is easy to misunderstand the significance of this. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/17/andrew-sabisky-boris-johnsons-ex-adviser-in-his-own-words">Sabisky’s view</a> that black people are genetically pre-determined to be less intelligent than whites was widely attacked in the media and politics. Yet the evidence suggests that his thinking about the nature of intelligence may not be entirely out of step with those in power in the UK.</p>
<p>Like Sabisky, they may claim that a focus on past statements and actions is unfair: tweeting about his departure <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/17/boris-johnson-adviser-quits-over-race-and-eugenics-writings">Sabisky blamed</a> “selective quoting” and “media hysteria about my old stuff online”. But the record is all we have on these matters.</p>
<p>At a press briefing shortly before Sabisky’s departure, the prime minister’s deputy spokesman refused more than 30 times to state Boris Johnson’s views on eugenics and the supposed intellectual inferiority of black people. The press secretary <a href="https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/no10-refuse-say-boris-johnson-21513879?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar">repeatedly stated</a> that “the PM’s views are well publicised and well documented”.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cpRTOOLgaXE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>I have been researching racism in education for more than 30 years and, at regular intervals, this means revisiting the question of supposed racial differences in intelligence – a topic that refuses to die despite the wealth of evidence against it. Viewed from this perspective, there are some key takeaways from the Sabisky affair.</p>
<p>Much of the press coverage presented him as a maverick outsider; someone fitting Dominic Cummings’ search for “<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/dominic-cummings-misfits-weirdos-boris-johnson-womens-sport-paralympics-a9337226.html">misfits and weirdos</a>” to advance government thinking. But Sabisky’s appointment highlights a view that is in line with earlier statements on intelligence by the prime minister and his chief advisor.</p>
<h2>Letting the cat out of the bag?</h2>
<p>What sets Sabisky apart from some people in government is not his belief in intelligence as a fixed and measurable trait, but the way he expressed it. In 2013, for example, Boris Johnson sang the praises of the free market economy and the competition that it fosters when he <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/london-mayor-election/mayor-of-london/10480321/Boris-Johnsons-speech-at-the-Margaret-Thatcher-lecture-in-full.html">said</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>That violent economic centrifuge is operating on human beings who are already very far from equal in raw ability, if not spiritual worth. Whatever you may think of the value of IQ tests, it is surely relevant to a conversation about equality that as many as 16% of our species have an IQ below 85, while about 2% have an IQ above 130. The harder you shake the pack, the easier it will be for some cornflakes to get to the top.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>There is, of course, no mention of supposed race differences in intelligence here; but there is a clear belief in IQ tests as a useful measure of innate ability. What the prime minster failed to mention (or understand?) is that IQ tests are periodically re-calibrated so that 100 always falls at the overall average, despite the fact that average performance has risen over time. There will always be a percentage “of our species” below 85 because that is the way the test is designed and maintained. The significance of any IQ score is <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.3102/0013189X07299881">always open to debate</a>. </p>
<p>A few years ago I wrote <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02680939.2016.1139189">a paper</a> challenging many of the myths that surround IQ. I included analysis of Dominic Cummings’ 237-page essay, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/interactive/2013/oct/11/dominic-cummings-michael-gove-thoughts-education-pdf">Some Thoughts on Education and Political Priorities</a>. At the time, Cummings was special advisor to the then education secretary, Michael Gove. </p>
<p>His essay attacks policymakers’ failure to embrace what he calls the “relevant science” concerning “evolutionary influences” on intelligence. Those familiar with the debates will know that evolution is frequently invoked as a causal explanation for current race inequalities, for example, in the work of J Philippe Rushton, whose “<a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/Race_Evolution_and_Behavior.html?id=BjuAAAAAMAAJ&redir_esc=y">evolutionary theory</a>” of race and intelligence places “Negroids” at the lesser end of the spectrum.</p>
<p>I think most would read Cummings essay as inferring that evolution and genes shape IQ – but he never offers an explicit position on the controversial issue of race and intelligence. A section entitled “Genes, class and social mobility…” ends with a lengthy quotation from an MIT professor who speculates that, in the future, people <em>might</em> “discover alleles [types of genes] for certain aspects of cognitive function” and those alleles <em>might</em> vary between different ethnic groups: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Then for the first time there could be a racism which is based not on some kind of virulent ideology, not based on some kind of kooky versions of genetics.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Unfortunately, Cummings offers no commentary whatsoever on the ideas contained in this quoted text.</p>
<p>I have called this strategy “racial inexplicitness” – a careful avoidance of clarity about race and education amid a long and winding discussion that prompts the reader to join the dots without ever stating clearly where he thinks the dots lead us. </p>
<h2>IQ, genetics and education</h2>
<p>Reviewing Cummings’ sources and influences is instructive. One of his heroes is the American psychologist Professor Robert Plomin. Plomin has made headlines in recent years for his increasingly exaggerated <a href="https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/beautiful-minds/there-is-no-nature-nurture-war/">claims</a> about the genetics of intelligence, including <a href="https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/298/298391/blueprint/9780141984261.html">most recently</a>, that DNA is a “fortune teller … giving us the power to predict our psychological strengths and weaknesses from birth”. Cummings <a href="https://dominiccummings.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/20130825-some-thoughts-on-education-and-political-priorities-version-2-final.pdf">invited</a> Plomin to visit the education department “to explain the science of IQ and genetics to officials and ministers”. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316883/original/file-20200224-24694-5hn5qi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316883/original/file-20200224-24694-5hn5qi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=931&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316883/original/file-20200224-24694-5hn5qi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=931&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316883/original/file-20200224-24694-5hn5qi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=931&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316883/original/file-20200224-24694-5hn5qi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1171&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316883/original/file-20200224-24694-5hn5qi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1171&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316883/original/file-20200224-24694-5hn5qi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1171&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Allen Lane</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Plomin, like Cummings, is currently vague about his views on race and intelligence. But in the 1990s he supported the <a href="http://www1.udel.edu/educ/gottfredson/reprints/1994WSJmainstream.pdf">claims made famous</a> in the book <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=s4CKqxi6yWIC">The Bell Curve</a>, which stated that class and race inequities in society mostly reflect genetics. He was one of 52 people who signed a 1994 Wall Street Journal <a href="http://www1.udel.edu/educ/gottfredson/reprints/1994WSJmainstream.pdf">article</a> that claimed “mainstream science” shows that “intelligence tests are not culturally biased against American blacks or other native-born, English-speaking peoples”. The article also stated that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The bell curve for whites is centred roughly around IQ 100; the bell curve for American blacks roughly around 85; and those for different subgroups of hispanics roughly midway between those for whites and blacks.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>These statements blithely ignore years of critique that has documented the misunderstandings and <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/Inheriting_Shame.html?id=JRR2QgAACAAJ&redir_esc=y">racist misuses</a> of <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/The_Science_and_Politics_of_I_Q.html?id=O2uO2JkRelMC&redir_esc=y">IQ tests</a>. They are also remarkably similar to the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/17/andrew-sabisky-boris-johnsons-ex-adviser-in-his-own-words">racist blog post</a> that came back to haunt Andrew Sabisky.</p>
<p>Asked, in 2015, whether he now regretted signing the Wall Street Journal statement, Professor <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b06j1qts">Plomin replied</a>, “Well I regret it to the extent it’s a distraction to my research. But I think the basic facts are there … erm, about heritability of intelligence”.</p>
<h2>Watch this space</h2>
<p>It would be nice to think that Cummings and Plomin now reject such spurious views, but they have not explicitly stated their current position. If these documented views do reflect their current thinking then it would be the case that deeply racist and regressive beliefs about the nature of intelligence and education lie at the heart of the British government.</p>
<p>These views are bad news for many groups in society, especially those deemed less “gifted”. And it’s not so unlikely that we could see them entering policy. Despite the negative press coverage generated by Sabisky’s beliefs, such dogma could conceivably be translated into a superficially acceptable policy brief. One way would be for education reforms to claim to apply “scientific” methods to identify the “brightest and best” and single them out for special attention. This would be presented as a meritocratic exercise, intended to fast-track clever children regardless of their social background. </p>
<p>The methods would include “cognitive assessments” (often a code for IQ tests) and the talk would be of “social mobility” and “colour-blindness”, whereby the approach treats everyone “as an individual”. No one in authority would worry about the fact that such assessments seem to always place a disproportionate number of black kids in the less-able bracket. That’s how institutional racism works.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132379/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Gillborn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Sabisky affair should not be seen as a random event: the real battle lies ahead.David Gillborn, Professor of Critical Race Studies, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/869702017-11-09T04:00:31Z2017-11-09T04:00:31ZCould Atlanta be on track to elect a white mayor?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193866/original/file-20171109-14167-2b7kxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Atlanta mayoral candidates Keisha Lance Bottoms (left) and Mary Norwood will face off in December.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/David Goldman</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Nov. 7, none of the 12 candidates for mayor of Atlanta received more than 50 percent of the vote.</p>
<p>That means the two candidates with the most votes, Councilwomen Keisha Lance Bottoms and Mary Norwood, will face off in a Dec. 5 runoff. Lance Bottoms is black. Norwood is white.</p>
<p>Could 2017 be the year that Atlanta elects its first white mayor in more than a generation?</p>
<p>Going into the runoff, I anticipate that the African-American candidate, Councilwoman Lance Bottoms, has the advantage. She won the most votes on the first ballot, and black voters are still a force to be reckoned with in this city. Still, the race demonstrates the ways that changing urban demographics can alter the contours of political competition within historically black cities.</p>
<p>As majority black cities welcome increasing numbers of new, nonblack residents into their city limits, the probability that nonblacks will run for and win top leadership posts increases. However, it is important to realize that even under these conditions, African-Americans can and do win elections in jurisdictions where blacks comprise less than a majority of the population. </p>
<h2>Race to the runoff</h2>
<p>Until early October, polls showed that Mary Norwood had an early, consistent lead in a crowded field. Norwood is no stranger to Atlanta mayoral races. In 2009, she came within <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/10/us/10atlanta.html">714 votes</a> of beating now-incumbent Mayor Kasim Reed in a runoff.</p>
<p>In addition to Norwood, reporters were also following the trajectory of Peter Aman, the city’s former chief operating officer, who is also white. Aman emerged from obscurity in the early polls to become a contender, leading some to speculate that it was quite possible that two white candidates could emerge from the original slate to challenge each other in a runoff. </p>
<p>That didn’t happen. Norwood won second place. Aman finished a respectable fourth – after Cathy Woolard, the former city council president, who is also white. The strong performances by these candidates, who represent a range of ideological perspectives and have different bases of support, suggest that white candidates are viable in this city which once boasted a supermajority black population. </p>
<p>For years, African-Americans in Atlanta leveraged the concentration of blacks in the city – in part due to white flight – to become key players in city politics. The city’s black majority population has elected black mayors for more than four decades. However, the city’s black population has been shrinking for a generation. Whereas blacks comprised <a href="https://www.census.gov/population/www/documentation/twps0076/twps0076.pdf">two-thirds of the city’s population in 1990</a>, that number dropped to 54 percent by the <a href="https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=CF">2010 census</a>. Given the amount of development and gentrification going on the city today that is pricing older, poorer black residents out of the city, it is probable that the 2020 census will reveal an even smaller black population. As the population shifts, it is reasonable to assume that nonblack candidates will emerge as viable candidates for high-profile offices that blacks have held for nearly two generations.</p>
<h2>Don’t count black politicians out yet</h2>
<p>Despite Atlanta’s shrinking black population, African-American voters remain an important, influential voting bloc. While the performance of candidates Norwood, Woolard and Aman is notable, we must also remember that Councilwoman Lance Bottoms qualified for the runoff in first place. She benefited from the endorsement of outgoing Mayor Reed. Public polling also suggests that she had started to <a href="https://twitter.com/wsbtv/status/926573560822452225/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsbtv.com%2Fnews%2Flocal%2Fatlanta-mayoral-race-new-poll-shows-shakeup-at-top%2F638346105">consolidate the African-American vote</a>, while Norwood, who was polling as high as about 20 percent among blacks <a href="https://media-beta.wsbtv.com/document_dev/2017/03/10/Atl%20Poll%20March%208th%20_7504877_ver1.0.pdf">in the spring</a>, started <a href="https://media-beta.wsbtv.com/document_dev/2017/08/29/Landmark%20Communications%2C%20Inc.%2C%20Poll%202%20City%20of%20Atlanta%20Mayor%20%20election_8997146_ver1.0.pdf">to lose black support</a>.</p>
<p>As we turn to the runoff, we should remember a few things. </p>
<p>First, we should seek to understand how demography matters in elections. As my colleagues Michael Leo Owens and Jacob Brown showed in a <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1111/juaf.12067">paper about the 2009 Atlanta mayoral election</a>, racially polarized voting is a real phenomenon in Atlanta politics and should not be ignored. However, demography is not destiny in the ways that we think it is. </p>
<p>For starters, just because Atlanta’s black population is shrinking does not mean that black candidates cannot win office. As the 2014 election of Mayor Muriel Bowser in Washington, D.C. demonstrates, black candidates can still win office in larger cities even when their population falls below 50 percent. And one cannot discount the ability for black candidates to even win election in cities with few to no black residents. For instance, Wilmot Collins made history on Nov. 7 by being elected the first black mayor of Helena, Montana. He follows in the tradition of politicians like Wellington Webb of Denver and Norm Rice of Seattle, who, in 1989, became the first black mayors in majority white cities.</p>
<p>We often forget this, but in 1970 the Census Bureau estimated Atlanta’s black population to be only 51 percent. Three years later, Maynard Jackson became the city’s first black mayor.</p>
<p>Since the 1960s, Atlanta has billed itself as <a href="http://www.coca-colacompany.com/stories/the-night-atlanta-truly-became-the-city-too-busy-to-hate-">“The City Too Busy to Hate.”</a> That slogan belies a complex racial history, but it connotes city leaders’ desire to demonstrate a progressive racial politics. As political scientist Clarence Stone showed in his classic “<a href="https://kansaspress.ku.edu/subjects/political-science-urban-politics/978-0-7006-0416-6.html">Regime Politics</a>,” electing black mayors has served as an important manifestation of the mantra. </p>
<p>One day, Atlanta will elect a nonblack mayor. However, that does not mean that Atlanta will no longer be “The City Too Busy to Hate,” “Black Mecca” or any of the other monikers that people popularly invoke to describe Atlanta as being a hub of black social, economic and political mobility. And it does not mean that all of a sudden, blacks can no longer be competitive candidates for citywide office or that black voters will not remain influential in determining the outcome of elections. It just means that contests will take on a new dimension of competitiveness.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86970/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andra Gillespie has received funding from the National Science Foundation and the Ford Foundation. She directs an Institute funded by the Mellon Foundation.</span></em></p>Atlanta is a black majority city that has elected black mayors since 1973. Two candidates now face a runoff in December.Andra Gillespie, Associate Professor, Political Science, Emory UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/846912017-09-27T19:03:23Z2017-09-27T19:03:23ZDefying Trump, Alabama GOP picks Roy Moore – and embraces the same old politics of rage<p>The Roy Moore and Luther Strange Republican primary runoff in Alabama wasn’t quiet, staid or dignified. </p>
<p>Set against the backdrop of Strange’s appointment by the former – and now <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/04/08/the-long-strange-affair-saga-of-alabama-gov-robert-bentley-is-about-to-get-serious/?utm_term=.02328db52f48">disgraced – Gov. Robert Bentley</a>, Strange and Moore jockeyed to position themselves as President Donald Trump’s most reliable Senate surrogate. Only Strange had Trump’s endorsement. And yet, Alabama voters, who overwhelmingly support the president, backed the insurgent and at times <a href="http://www.al.com/news/birmingham/index.ssf/2016/09/alabama_supreme_court_chief_ju.html">inflammatory</a> Moore by a <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/26/roy-moore-wins-alabamas-republican-senate-primary-defeating-trump-backed-candidate.html">nearly 10 point margin</a>.</p>
<p>Alabama politics are often pigeonholed as reliably conservative. True, the Republican Party dominates the state, but that shouldn’t suggest Alabama doesn’t have competitive elections – it’s just that they only rarely occur between Democrats and Republicans. Alabama is what some <a href="http://utpress.org/title/southern-politics-state-nation/">scholars of southern politics like V. O. Key</a> might term “bi-factional.” It is a single-party state, but within that party, factions vie for control. </p>
<p>Some were surprised by how competitive this special election was. Not me. I’ve lived in Alabama nearly my entire life, first as a student and now as a professor of political science at Auburn University-Montgomery. For those of us who have taken a long glance at Alabama politics, this special election was not only unsurprising – it was downright predictable.</p>
<h2>Alabama politics then and now</h2>
<p>To understand Alabama politics today, you need to go back to 1986. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187891/original/file-20170927-24193-1cgempv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187891/original/file-20170927-24193-1cgempv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187891/original/file-20170927-24193-1cgempv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=882&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187891/original/file-20170927-24193-1cgempv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=882&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187891/original/file-20170927-24193-1cgempv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=882&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187891/original/file-20170927-24193-1cgempv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1108&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187891/original/file-20170927-24193-1cgempv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1108&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187891/original/file-20170927-24193-1cgempv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1108&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">George C Wallace.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="http://lsupress.org/books/detail/the-politics-of-rage/">George C. Wallace</a>, the longtime Democratic governor of the state, had decided the future of his political career. To a packed and at times emotional audience, he revealed that he would never again seek elected office, ending his nearly quarter-century reign in Alabama. His decision left a political chasm in a state that for many years had known “Wallaceism” – a political ideology unto itself, centered upon its namesake’s cult of personality. </p>
<p>In this void, two contenders emerged who would come to represent the future of Alabama politics. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.npr.org/2014/10/16/356728052/alabama-attorney-generals-1976-letter-told-kkk-off-in-3-short-words">Bill Baxley</a>, Wallace’s lieutenant governor and former state attorney general who successfully prosecuted a Ku Klux Klan member for bombing the Sixteenth Street Baptist Church, received the Democratic nod. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/01/us/01hunt1.html?mcubz=1">Guy Hunt</a>, for many years a lonely Republican in a state dominated by Democrats, became the Republican nominee. Here was a man who had been crushed in a similar gubernatorial bid just eight years earlier. As the 1986 election got underway, many assumed Hunt would repeat his previous performance. But unlike 1978, Wallaceism was on the decline, and traditional factions were reemerging.</p>
<p>Historically, Alabama politics have pitted moneyed industrial and agricultural interests against poor grassroots populism. Wallace’s career was noteworthy in that he managed to harness nearly every element of populism at one point or another, vacillating between racial moderation and white supremacy, and all the way back again before he was done. </p>
<p>In his early career, Wallace adopted the populism of his one-time mentor, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/local/1987/11/22/james-folsom-79-colorful-governor-of-alabama-in-40s-and-50s-dies/72ee6497-bf2f-4d64-aebb-bf042daad782/?utm_term=.458eb64b0742">Gov. “Big” Jim Folsom</a>, who campaigned for the everyman on roads, schools and jobs. </p>
<p>But following the U.S. Supreme Court’s <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/347/483/case.html">1954 Brown v. Board of Education</a> ruling, this brand of populism became untenable in Alabama. Whites of all political stripes demanded “massive resistance” from their politicians and offered their votes to whichever candidate gave the staunchest support for segregation. <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/daily/sept98/wallace.htm">Wallace was burned in the 1958 gubernatorial election</a> when John Patterson defeated his more moderate, Folsom-style campaign. Wallace is alleged to have remarked after his loss to never again get “out-niggered” by another segregationist. He kept that promise. From 1962 with his first election as governor, Wallaceism dominated state politics with its emphasis on what <a href="http://lsupress.org/books/detail/the-politics-of-rage/">historian Dan Carter</a> has termed “the politics of rage,” which focused almost religiously upon whites’ racial resentments, fears and anxieties.</p>
<p>Wallace transcended parties and factions – and became what <a href="http://utpress.org/title/southern-politics-state-nation/">political scientist V. O. Key called</a> a “lone-wolf” politician. Although his personality attracted a powerful group of followers for a time, the faithful quickly drifted away once he left the political stage. After Wallace, Alabama Democrats predominantly represented the poor, the teachers’ union, plaintiffs’ lawyers and civil rights organizations. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, by the 1980s, a nascent Republican Party had emerged in the state. Alabama Republicans were increasingly <a href="http://www.uapress.ua.edu/product/After-Wallace,34.aspx">young, educated, financially better off and white</a>. Many simply did not remember the events that had led their parents to fall in love with Wallace or the Democrats. Culturally, they were more attuned to their evangelical grassroots and Reaganism. Republicans in this period were bankrolled by factions that represented business and land – longtime stakeholders in Alabama politics.</p>
<p>Republicans and Democrats engaged in a roughly 25-year battle for control of the state. </p>
<p>In 1986, Republican Hunt defeated Democrat and former state attorney general Baxley in a major upset. By 1997, Republicans controlled the state delegation to the U.S. Senate; in 2001, the state Supreme Court; in 2003, the governor’s mansion; and in 2011, Republicans captured the state House and Senate for the first time since Reconstruction. They then consolidated their gains with <a href="http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/story/news/politics/southunionstreet/2017/01/20/12-alabama-legislative-districts-ruled-unconstitutional/96830710/">punishing partisan gerrymanders</a> that further eroded Democratic shares of the House and Senate. </p>
<p>Alabama is once again a single-party state, but the factions that comprise that party are beginning to come apart.</p>
<h2>The dog that caught the car</h2>
<p>Paradoxically, the worst thing that might have befallen Alabama Republicans was their total victory over the Democratic Party. </p>
<p>Today, it’s almost hackneyed to antagonize state Democrats for their support of unions or abortion access. Democrats are no threat to Republican hegemony. Rather, the total success Republicans have achieved at the Democrats’ expense has exposed the longstanding rifts that separate Alabama’s political factions but were only held together so long as Democrats were viable sources of opposition. Without them, bi-factionalism has returned, pitting those with money against those without it; those with college degrees against those with none; those who are being held hostage by the state’s struggling education and public health systems against those who have thrived. The grassroots feel used.</p>
<p>Like Wallace, Roy Moore is a party unto himself. He channels the grassroots’ resentments and anxieties and makes them feel proud of their identities, predominantly as white Christians. </p>
<p>Alabamians have tended to fall prey to the demagogue when they felt most anxious, resentful and angry. The election of Barack Obama, America’s first black president, helped catalyze these feelings among the population’s white majority, and Trump’s election was nothing more than gasoline to the fire with its overt appeals to racism and Christian identity. </p>
<p>If the Alabama Democrats are clever – and I don’t see any evidence to suggest this is the case – they will position themselves either to peel away disaffected “Never Moore” types of Republicans, or they will run counterpopulism candidates who adopt socially conservative and economically liberal policies. </p>
<p>I don’t expect Moore’s Democratic challenger in the general election, Doug Jones, to run this kind of campaign. I also have a dim outlook for Democrats’ efforts to win legislative seats in next year’s midterms. History leads me to believe that Wallaceism – the style that initially led him to statewide success – will triumph in Alabama so long as the politics of rage are alive and well. The election of Roy Moore seems to suggest it is.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84691/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Hughes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A scholar from Alabama’s Auburn University at Montgomery explains how Republicans have slowly but utterly taken over Alabama politics, even while squabbling amongst themselves.David Hughes, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Auburn University at Montgomery Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.