tag:theconversation.com,2011:/nz/topics/spring-2019-bushfires-78555/articlesSpring 2019 bushfires – The Conversation2020-09-15T19:51:54Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1461942020-09-15T19:51:54Z2020-09-15T19:51:54ZAndrew Forrest’s high-tech plan to extinguish bushfires within an hour is as challenging as it sounds<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358075/original/file-20200915-18-1xr17au.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=264%2C187%2C7084%2C4715&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Warren Frey/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The philanthropic foundation of mining billionaire Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest has unveiled a <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/9xvk4tbg0meqykf/20200915_MR_Fire_Shield_final.pdf?dl=0">plan</a> to transform how Australia responds to bushfires. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/15/philanthropic-foundation-dreams-of-extinguishing-all-bushfires-within-an-hour-with-high-tech-help">Fire Shield</a> project aims to use emerging technologies to rapidly find and extinguish bushfires. The goal is to be able to put out any dangerous blaze within an hour by 2025.</p>
<p>Some of the proposed technology includes <a href="https://theconversation.com/drones-help-track-wildfires-count-wildlife-and-map-plants-125115">drones</a> and aerial surveillance robots, autonomous fire-fighting vehicles and on-the-ground remote sensors. If successful, the plan could alleviate the devastating impact of bushfires Australians face each year. </p>
<p>But while <a href="https://www.environment.sa.gov.au/managing-natural-resources/fire-management/fire-science/fire-behaviour">bushfire behaviour</a> is an extensively studied science, it’s not an exact one. Fires are subject to a wide range of variables including local weather conditions, atmospheric pressure and composition, and the geographical layout of an area. </p>
<p>There are also human factors, such as how quickly and effectively front-line workers can respond, as well as the issue of arson. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/humans-light-85-of-bushfires-and-we-do-virtually-nothing-to-stop-it-126941">Humans light 85% of bushfires, and we do virtually nothing to stop it</a>
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<h2>A plan for rapid bushfire detection</h2>
<p>The appeal of the Fire Shield plan is in its proposal to use emerging fields of computer science to fight bushfires, especially AI and the <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/internet-of-things-what-is-explained-iot">Internet of Things</a> (IoT) network. </p>
<p>While we don’t currently have details on how the Fire Shield plan will be carried out, the use of an IoT <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7080/5/4/65">bushfire monitoring</a> network seems like the most viable option. </p>
<p>The IoT network is made of many wireless connected devices. Deploying IoT devices with sensors in remote areas could allow the monitoring of changes in soil temperature, air temperature, weather conditions, moisture and humidity, wind speed, wind direction and forest density.</p>
<p>The sensors could also help pinpoint a fire’s location, <a href="https://ecos.csiro.au/fast-moving-fires-and-the-science-of-prediction/">predict</a> where it will spread and also where it most likely started. This insight would greatly help with the early evacuation of vulnerable communities.</p>
<p>Data collected could be quickly processed and analysed using <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/11/17/103781/what-is-machine-learning-we-drew-you-another-flowchart/">machine learning</a>. This branch of AI provides intelligent analysis much quicker than traditional computing, or human reckoning. </p>
<h2>A more reliable network</h2>
<p>A wireless low power wide area network (LPWAN) would be the best option for implementing the required infrastructure for the proposal. LPWAN uses sensor devices with batteries lasting up to <a href="https://tools.ietf.org/id/draft-ietf-lpwan-overview-08.html#:%7E:text=2.-,Characteristics,years%2C%20sometimes%20even%20buried%20underground.">15 years</a>. </p>
<p>And although a LPWAN only allows limited <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405959517302953">coverage</a> (10-40km) in rural areas, a network with more coverage would need batteries that have to be replaced more often — making the entire system less reliable.</p>
<p>In the event of sensors being destroyed by fire, neighbouring sensors can send this information back to the server to build a sensor “availability and location map”. With this map, tracking destroyed sensors would also help track a bushfire’s movement. </p>
<h2>Dealing with logistics</h2>
<p>While it’s possible, the practicalities of deploying sensors for a remote bushfire monitoring network make the plan hugely challenging. The areas to cover would be vast, with varying terrain and environmental conditions. </p>
<p>Sensor devices could potentially be deployed by aircrafts across a region. On-ground distribution by people would be another option, but a more expensive one.</p>
<p>However, the latter option would have to be used to distribute larger <a href="https://medium.com/iotforall/iot-101-what-is-a-gateway-be066763b98d">gateway</a> devices. These act as the bridge between the other sensors on ground and the server in the <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/what-is-cloud-computing-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-cloud/">cloud</a> hosting the data. </p>
<p>Gateway devices have more hardware and need to be set up by a person when first installed. They play a key role in LPWAN networks and must be placed carefully. After being placed, IoT devices require regular monitoring and calibration to ensure the information being relayed to the server is accurate.</p>
<p>Weather and environmental factors (such as storms or floods) have the potential to destroy the sensors. There’s also the risk of human interference, as well as legal considerations around deploying sensors on privately owned land. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-only-one-way-to-make-bushfires-less-powerful-take-out-the-stuff-that-burns-129323">There's only one way to make bushfires less powerful: take out the stuff that burns</a>
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<h2>Unpredictable interruptions</h2>
<p>While statisticians can provide insight into the likelihood of a bushfire starting at a particular location, bushfires remain inherently hard to predict. </p>
<p>Any sensor network will be counter-acted by unpredictable environmental conditions and technological issues such as interrupted network signals. And such disruptions could lead to delays in important information reaching authorities.</p>
<p>Potential solutions for this include using <a href="https://www.nbnco.com.au/learn/network-technology/sky-muster-explained">satellite services</a> in conjunction with an LPWAN network, or balloon networks (such as Google’s project <a href="https://www.radarbox.com/blog/tracking-google-loon-baloons-on-radarbox">Loon</a>) which can provide better internet connectivity in remote areas.</p>
<p>But even once the sensors can be used to identify and track bushfires, putting a blaze out is another challenge entirely. The Fire Shield plan’s <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/minderoo-s-high-tech-plan-to-extinguish-any-bushfire-within-one-hour-20200914-p55vjq">vision</a> “to detect, monitor and extinguish dangerous blazes within an hour anywhere in Australia” will face challenges on several fronts.</p>
<p>It may be relatively simple to predict hurdles in getting the technology set up. But once a bushfire is detected, it’s less clear as to what course of action could possible extinguish it within the hour. In some very remote areas, aerial firefighting (such as with water bombers) may be the only option. </p>
<p>That begs the next question: how can we have enough aircrafts and controllers ready to be dispatched to a remote place at a moment’s notice? Considering the logistics, it won’t be easy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146194/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Jin Kang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Even if the proper infrastructure is implemented, it’s hard to say what course of action could possibly extinguish a fast-moving rural bushfire within an hour.James Jin Kang, Lecturer, Computing and Security, Edith Cowan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/482302020-08-13T20:07:45Z2020-08-13T20:07:45ZFrom Kangaroo Island to Mallacoota, citizen scientists proved vital to Australia’s bushfire recovery<p>Following the Black Summer bushfires of 2019-20, many people throughout Australia, and across the world, wanted to know how they could help in response to the environmental disaster. </p>
<p>Hundreds contacted the Australian Citizen Science Association (<a href="https://citizenscience.org.au/">ACSA</a>), Australia’s peak citizen science body, for guidance on how to participate in relevant scientific projects. </p>
<p>It was a golden opportunity to show that science can be, and <em>is</em>, done by all kinds of people – not just those working in labs with years of training and access to high-powered instruments. A scientist can be you, your children or your parents.</p>
<p>And this recognition led to the establishment of the <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/Research/Environment/Extreme-Events/Bushfire/Citizen-Science/Citizen-Science-Bushfire-Recovery">Citizen Science Bushfire Project Finder</a>, a key outcome from the <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/karenandrews/media-releases/ministerial-statement-bushfire-science-roundtable">bushfire science roundtable</a>, which was convened in January by Federal Science Minister Karen Andrews.</p>
<p>To establish the project finder database, ACSA partnered with the CSIRO and the Atlas of Living Australia to assist the search for vetted projects that could contribute to our understanding of post-bushfire recovery. </p>
<p>Five months on, the value is evident.</p>
<h2>Science as a way of thinking</h2>
<p>In response to the bushfires, one citizen science project set up was the <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/News/News-releases/2020/Kangaroo-Island-dunnart-recovery-supported-by-citizen-scientists-across-the-country">Kangaroo Island Dunnart Survey</a>. A record number of citizen scientists answered the call to assist in recovery efforts for this small marsupial.</p>
<p>The Kangaroo Island dunnart was already listed as endangered before the fires, with population estimates between 300-500 individuals. And initial post-fire assessments indicated a significant further decline in its population, highlighting the importance of tracking the species’ recovery. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, nearly 1,500 kilometres away from Kangaroo Island, a local resident set up “Mallacoota After Fires” in the small community of Mallacoota, Victoria – a region <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/gallery/2020/feb/18/sifting-through-the-ashes-mallacoota-residents-after-the-bushfires-in-pictures">hit hard</a> by the bushfires.</p>
<p>This has enabled the community to record and validate (via an app and website) how the fires impacted the region’s plants and animals.</p>
<p>So far, the project has documented the existence of a range of flora and fauna, from common wombats to the vulnerable green and golden bell frog. It has also captured some amazing images of bush regeneration after fire. </p>
<p>Science does not just belong to professionals. As eminent US astronomer Carl Sagan <a href="https://speakola.com/ideas/carl-sagan-science-last-interview-1996">noted</a>, “science is a way of thinking much more than it is a body of knowledge”.</p>
<p>This suggests that, when properly enabled, anyone can actively participate. And the output goes beyond the rewards of personal involvement. It contributes to better science.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/citizen-science-how-you-can-contribute-to-coronavirus-research-without-leaving-the-house-134238">Citizen science: how you can contribute to coronavirus research without leaving the house</a>
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<h2>The need for ongoing engagement</h2>
<p>Citizen science is significantly contributing observations and expertise to bushfire research. Across southeast New South Wales and the ACT, several hundred citizen scientists have: </p>
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<li>conducted targeted landscape-wide surveys of threatened species, or new weed or pest incursions</li>
<li>collected specified data from plot locations stratified against fire history </li>
<li>assessed whether wildlife actually use water and feed stations established by communities after a fire has been through. (Data suggests the use of the stations is limited).</li>
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<p>And it’s not just in local communities. Platforms such as <a href="https://digivol.ala.org.au/">DigiVol</a> have enabled citizen scientists from around the world to review thousands of camera trap images deployed post-fire to monitor species survival and recovery. </p>
<p>Still, there is much more to do. Australia is a vast continent and as we saw last summer, the fire footprint is immense.</p>
<p>But there is also a huge community out there that can help support the implementation of science and technology, as we adapt to our changing climate. </p>
<h2>Reaching out at the right time</h2>
<p>In January, Prime Minister Scott Morrison asked the CSIRO, supported by an expert advisory panel chaired by one of us (Alan Finkel), to develop recommendations for practical measures that would increase Australia’s disaster and climate resilience. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/Research/Environment/Extreme-Events/Bushfire/frontline-support/report-climate-disaste-resilience">report on Climate and Disaster Resilience</a> gives due emphasis to the importance of citizen science in complementing traditional research-led monitoring campaigns and sharing locally specific advice. One component of the response also brought together national stakeholders, to develop a series of more detailed recommendations regarding the critical role of citizen science. </p>
<p>Citizen scientists can be involved in important data collection and knowledge building. They can collaborate with disaster response agencies and research agencies, to develop additional science-based community education and training programs. </p>
<p>Also, citizen science is a way to collect distributed data beyond the affordability and resources of conventional science.</p>
<p>With that in mind, the task now is to better marry the “professional” scientific effort with the citizen science effort, to truly harness the potential of citizen science. In doing so, we can ensure environmental and societal approaches to disaster recovery represent a diversity of voices. </p>
<p>The role of the community, particularly in developing resilience against environmental disaster, can be a most useful mechanism for empowering people who may otherwise feel at a loss from the impact of disaster. Furthermore, by working with communities directly affected by bushfires, we can help measure the extent of the impact. </p>
<p>We call on our professional scientist colleagues to actively collaborate with citizen science groups. In doing so, we can identify priority areas with critical data needs, while also informing, enriching and engaging with diverse communities in science. </p>
<p>Equally, we encourage citizen scientists to share and tell their stories across social and political settings to demonstrate the impact they continue to have. </p>
<p>The beneficiary will be science. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/chief-scientist-we-need-to-transform-our-world-into-a-sustainable-electric-planet-131658">Chief Scientist: we need to transform our world into a sustainable 'electric planet'</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/48230/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erin Roger works for CSIRO as the Citizen Science Program Lead and is the Chair of the Australian Citizen Science Association.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Finkel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ahead of National Science Week, Chief Scientist Alan Finkel reflects on the growing value of citizen science, emphasising the need for more collaboration as we deal with an evolving climate.Alan Finkel, Australia’s Chief Scientist, Office of the Chief ScientistErin Roger, Citizen Science Program Lead, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1318912020-02-23T19:57:13Z2020-02-23T19:57:13ZBuzz off honey industry, our national parks shouldn’t be milked for money<p>Among the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/14/a-billion-animals-the-australian-species-most-at-risk-from-the-bushfire-crisis">vast number</a> of native species damaged by the recent bushfire crisis, we must not forget native pollinators. These animals, mainly insects such as <a href="https://www.science.org.au/curious/earth-environment/australias-native-bees-0">native bees</a>, help sustain ecosystems by pollinating native plants.</p>
<p>Native pollinator populations have been decimated in burned areas. They will only recover if they can recolonise from unburned areas as vegetation regenerates.</p>
<p>Since the fires, Australia’s beekeeping industry has been pushing for access to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2020-01-10/fire-affected-beekeepers-appeal-for-access-to-national-parks/11854886">national parks</a> and other unburned public land. This would give introduced pollinators such as the European <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/invertebrates/h/honeybeeWhile%20we%20acknowledge%20the%20losses%20sustained%20by%20the%20honey%20industry,%20authorities%20must%20refuse%20/">honeybee</a>, (<em>Apis mellifera</em>) access to floral resources.</p>
<p>But our native pollinators badly need these resources – and the recovery of our landscapes depends on them. While we acknowledge the losses sustained by the honey industry, authorities should not jeopardise our native species to protect commercial interests.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316618/original/file-20200221-92558-oy2svd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316618/original/file-20200221-92558-oy2svd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316618/original/file-20200221-92558-oy2svd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316618/original/file-20200221-92558-oy2svd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316618/original/file-20200221-92558-oy2svd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316618/original/file-20200221-92558-oy2svd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316618/original/file-20200221-92558-oy2svd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The commercial honeybee industry wants access to national parks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr</span></span>
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<h2>The bush: a hive of activity</h2>
<p>The European honeybee is the main commercial bee species in Australia. It exists in two contexts: in hives managed for honey production, and as a pest exploiting almost every wild habitat. Honeybees in managed hives are classified as livestock, the same way pigs and goats are. </p>
<p>Feral and (to a lesser extent) managed honeybees contribute a broad variety of crop pollination services, including for <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-03/almond-growers-in-australia-to-struggle-after-bee-fire-deaths">almond</a>, apple and lucerne (also called alfalfa) crops. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/keeping-honeybees-doesnt-save-bees-or-the-environment-102931">Keeping honeybees doesn't save bees – or the environment</a>
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<p>Pollinators visit the flowers of the crop plants and ensure they are fertilised to produce fruit and seed. Beekeepers are often paid to put their bees in orchards since trees (such as almond trees) cannot produce a crop without insect pollination.</p>
<p>But native species of bees, beetles, flies and birds are <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-15/fact-check-honey-bee-pollination/10365750">just as important</a> for crops. They are also essential for pollination, seed production and the regulation of Australia’s unique ecosystems – which evolved without honeybees.</p>
<h2>Nature at risk</h2>
<p>The honeybee industry sustained considerable losses in the recent fires, particularly in New South Wales and on South Australia’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-07/quarter-of-kangaroo-islands-ligurian-beehives-lost/11845372">Kangaroo Island</a>. Commercial hives were destroyed and floral resources were burned, reducing the availability of sites for commercial hives. This has prompted calls from beekeepers to place hives in national parks.</p>
<p>Currently, beekeepers’ access to conservation areas is limited. This is because bees from commercial hives, and feral bees from previous escapes, damage native ecosystems. They compete with native species for nectar and pollen, and pollinate certain plant species over others. </p>
<p>In NSW, honeybees are listed as a <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/invasive-species/publications/asian-honey-bee-possible-environmental-impacts">key threatening process</a> to biodiversity.</p>
<h2>Untold damage</h2>
<p>Allowing commercial hives in our national parks compromises these valuable places for conservation and could do untold damage. </p>
<p>Australia’s native birds, mammals and other insects rely on the same nectar from flowers as honeybees, which are abundant and voracious competitors for this sugary food.</p>
<p>Also, honeybees pollinate <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/cgi-bin/biodiversity/invasive/weeds/weedspeciesindex.pl?id=701">invasive weeds</a>, such as <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/30033767?seq=1">gorse</a>, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1365-3180.2004.00391.x">lantana</a> and <a href="https://www.thieme-connect.com/products/ejournals/abstract/10.1055/s-2005-865855">scotch broom</a>. These are adapted to recover and spread after fire, and are very expensive to control. </p>
<p>Many native plant species are not pollinated, or are pollinated inefficiently, by <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1046/j.1523-1739.2001.00236.x">honeybees</a>. This means a concentration of honeybee hives in a conservation area could shift the entire makeup of native vegetation, damaging the ecosystem.</p>
<p>Bringing managed hives into national parks would also risk transferring damaging <a href="https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-08/native-bee-honey-bee-disease-parasite-research-qld/11392606">diseases such as Nosema ceranae</a> to native bee species.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316537/original/file-20200220-92558-171wayf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316537/original/file-20200220-92558-171wayf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316537/original/file-20200220-92558-171wayf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316537/original/file-20200220-92558-171wayf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316537/original/file-20200220-92558-171wayf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316537/original/file-20200220-92558-171wayf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316537/original/file-20200220-92558-171wayf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316537/original/file-20200220-92558-171wayf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Gorse (<em>Ulex europaeus</em>) is considered an invasive weed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/jim-sf/4545662546/in/photolist-6eRFTe-2ifwPWt-2ifwPHH-2ifxQsN-bdZcon-Nnyuvb-9L8gN2-bdZbuX-6eW1vC-beyLtz-bdZ6Dx-4GjqwA-6mWmmV-9L8gKV-8NsREf-9L8gJR-beyJ8c-beyJJF-czmpTE-beyJqD-ZyZHoa-5HwRLf-6eVNJE-oXJkBe-oXKmEU-bekLuD-28Pav6F-ZrQFHr-7VFR4G-7VFH7b-7VCubZ-beyKgT-d9Q335-ZyZHtR-2iiDoat-48qmGx-8vUxiK-ddAqdW-aZLu7T">James Gaither/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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<h2>Chokehold on our flora and fauna</h2>
<p>Currently, the commercially important honeybee is kept mainly on agricultural land. In national parks and reserves, native species are prioritised.</p>
<p>The amount of land set aside for conservation is already <a href="https://vnpa.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Completing-Australia%E2%80%99s-National-Reserve-System-of-Protected-Areas.pdf">insufficient</a> to preserve the species and systems we value.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fire-almost-wiped-out-rare-species-in-the-australian-alps-feral-horses-are-finishing-the-job-130584">Fire almost wiped out rare species in the Australian Alps. Feral horses are finishing the job</a>
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<p>Australia’s national parks also suffer from mismanagement of <a href="https://theconversation.com/kangaroos-and-other-herbivores-are-eating-away-at-national-parks-across-australia-122953">grazing</a> by native and introduced animals, and other <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/360/6390/788">activities</a> permitted in parks, such as road development and in some cases, mining. </p>
<p>National parks must be allowed to recover from bushfire damage. Where they are unburned, they must be protected so native plants and animals can recover and recolonise burned areas.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316620/original/file-20200221-92530-1s7h3hi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316620/original/file-20200221-92530-1s7h3hi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316620/original/file-20200221-92530-1s7h3hi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316620/original/file-20200221-92530-1s7h3hi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316620/original/file-20200221-92530-1s7h3hi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316620/original/file-20200221-92530-1s7h3hi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316620/original/file-20200221-92530-1s7h3hi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">National parks decimated by the bushfires should be allowed to recover.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Daniel Mariuz</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Protecting nature and the beekeeping industry</h2>
<p>The demand for commercial beekeeping in national parks is a result of native vegetation being cleared for agriculture in many parts of Australia.</p>
<p>In the short term, one solution is for beekeepers to artificially <a href="https://honeybee.org.au/media-release-times-up-for-bees/">feed</a> their hives with sugar syrup, as is common practise in winter. Thus, they could continue to produce honey and provide commercial pollination services. </p>
<p>While production levels may fall as a result of the reduced feed, and honey may become more expensive, at least consumers would know the product was made without damaging native wildlife and vegetation.</p>
<p>A long-term solution is to increase the area of native vegetation for both biodiversity and commercial beekeeping, by stepping up Australia’s <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/emr.12398">meagre</a> re-vegetation programs.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-reduce-fire-risk-and-meet-climate-targets-over-300-scientists-call-for-stronger-land-clearing-laws-113172">To reduce fire risk and meet climate targets, over 300 scientists call for stronger land clearing laws</a>
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<p>Unfortunately, vegetation clearance rates in Australia remain <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/05/global-deforestation-hotspot-3m-hectares-of-australian-forest-to-be-lost-in-15-years">extremely high</a>. </p>
<p>Protecting and enhancing native vegetation would have both commercial and public benefits. Programs like the recently announced <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/about/reporting/budget/sustaining-future-australian-farming">Agricultural Stewardship Package</a> could be designed, to pay farmers for vegetation protection and revegetation. </p>
<p>Increasing vegetation in our landscapes is an insurance policy that will not only protect biodiversity, but support the honey industry.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131891/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patrick O'Connor has received funding from Agrifutures Australia and the Native Vegetation Council of South Australia. Patrick is the national chairperson of Landcare in Australia</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James B. Dorey receives funding from Flinders University, the Linnean Society of NSW, the Royal Society of South Australia, the Field Naturalists Society of South Australia, Society of Australian Systematic Biologists and the Ecological Society of Australia. James B. Dorey is also a member of the Entomological Society of Queensland, the Entomological Society of Australia and the Society of Australian Systematic Biologists.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard V Glatz has received funding from Kangaroo Island Natural Resources, through the Federal Government's National Landcare Program, Smart Farms II grants. He is a Registered Native Vegetation Consultant with the SA Department for Environment & Water, periodically engaged to undertake native vegetation clearance assessments. He is Chief Editor of the journal Austral Entomology and a member of the Australian Entomological Society (AES), the AES Conservation Committee, Royal Society of SA, Weed Management Society of SA and Biosecurity Advisory Committee to the Kangaroo Island NRM Board.</span></em></p>In NSW, honeybees are listed as a key threatening process to biodiversity.Patrick O'Connor, Associate Professor, University of AdelaideJames B. Dorey, PhD Candidate, Flinders UniversityRichard V Glatz, Associate research scientist, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1303852020-01-27T18:54:34Z2020-01-27T18:54:34ZRebuilding from the ashes of disaster: this is what Australia can learn from India<p>A key question facing us all after Australia’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/some-say-weve-seen-bushfires-worse-than-this-before-but-theyre-ignoring-a-few-key-facts-129391">unprecedented bushfires</a> is how will we do reconstruction differently? We need to ensure our rebuilding and recovery efforts make us safer, protect our environment and improve our ability to cope with future disasters. Australia could learn from the innovative approach India adopted in 2001 after the nation’s <a href="https://www.in.undp.org/content/india/en/home/library/environment_energy/from-relief-to-Recovery.html">second-most-devastating earthquake</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-costs-approaching-100-billion-the-fires-are-australias-costliest-natural-disaster-129433">With costs approaching $100 billion, the fires are Australia's costliest natural disaster</a>
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<p>The quake in Gujarat state <a href="https://www.in.undp.org/content/india/en/home/library/environment_energy/from-relief-to-Recovery.html">killed 20,000 people</a>, injured 300,000 and destroyed or damaged a million homes. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0263786317301618">My research</a> has identified two elements that were particularly important for the recovery of the devastated communities.</p>
<p>First, India set up a recovery taskforce operating not just at a national level but at state, local and community levels. Second, community-based recovery coordination hubs were an informal but highly effective innovation.</p>
<h2>Rebuilding for resilience</h2>
<p>Scholars and international agencies such as the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (<a href="https://www.undrr.org/">UNDRR</a>) have promoted post-disaster reconstruction as a window of opportunity to build resilience. By that, they mean we not only rebuild physical structures – homes, schools, roads – to be safer than before, but we also revive local businesses, heal communities and restore ecosystems to be better prepared for the next bushfires or other disasters. </p>
<hr>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-bush-fires-to-terrorism-how-communities-become-resilient-129932">From bush fires to terrorism: how communities become resilient</a>
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<p>This is easier said than done. Reconstruction is a highly complex and lengthy process. Two key challenges, among others, are a lack of long-term commitment past initial reconstruction and a failure to collaborate effectively between sectors.</p>
<p>Reconstruction programs require a balancing of competing demands. The desire for speedy rebuilding must be weighed against considerations of long-term challenges such as climate change adaptation and environmental sustainability. </p>
<p>There will always be diverse views on such issues. For example, planners may suggest people should not be allowed to rebuild in areas at high risk of bushfires. Residents may wish to rebuild due to their connection to the land or community. </p>
<p>Such differences in opinion are not necessarily a hindrance. As discussed below, managing such differences well can lead to innovative solutions. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/before-we-rush-to-rebuild-after-fires-we-need-to-think-about-where-and-how-130049">Before we rush to rebuild after fires, we need to think about where and how</a>
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<h2>What can we learn from India’s experience?</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311509/original/file-20200123-162185-w80hv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311509/original/file-20200123-162185-w80hv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311509/original/file-20200123-162185-w80hv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311509/original/file-20200123-162185-w80hv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311509/original/file-20200123-162185-w80hv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311509/original/file-20200123-162185-w80hv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311509/original/file-20200123-162185-w80hv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311509/original/file-20200123-162185-w80hv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 2001 earthquake in Gujarat destroyed or damaged a million homes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Gujarat_Earthquake_Relief_by_RSS_Volunteers.jpg">Gabriel N/WIkimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The 2001 Gujarat earthquake was declared a national calamity. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0263786317301618">My research</a> examined post-disaster reconstruction processes that influenced community recovery – physical, social and economic. The findings from Gujarat 13 years after the quake were then compared with recovery processes seven years after the devastating <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Bihar_flood">2008 Kosi River floods</a> in the Indian state of Bihar. </p>
<p>Of my key findings, two are most relevant to Australia right now. </p>
<p>India’s government set up a special recovery taskforce within a week of the earthquake. The taskforce was established at federal, state, local and community level, either by nominating an existing institution (such as the magistrate’s court) or by establishing a new authority. </p>
<p>The Australian government has set up a <a href="https://www.bushfirerecovery.gov.au/">National Bushfire Recovery Agency</a>, committing A$2 billion to help people who lost their homes and businesses rebuild their communities. While Australia effectively has a special taskforce at federal and state level (such as the <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/bushfire-recovery-victoria">Bushfire Recovery Victoria</a> agency), we need it at local and community levels too. Moreover, no such agency exists at state level in New South Wales.</p>
<p>Without such a decentralised setup, it will be hard to maintain focus and set the clear priorities that local communities need for seamless recovery.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrisons-biggest-failure-in-the-bushfire-crisis-an-inability-to-deliver-collective-action-129437">Scott Morrison's biggest failure in the bushfire crisis: an inability to deliver collective action</a>
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<p>Second, India’s recovery coordination hub at community level was an innovative solution to meet the need of listening to diverse views, channelling information and coordinating various agencies. </p>
<p>A district-wide consortium of civil society organisations in Gujarat established <em>Setu Kendra</em> – literally meaning bridging centres or hubs. </p>
<p>These hubs were set up informally in 2001. Each hub comprised a local community member, social worker, building professional, financial expert and lawyer. They met regularly after the earthquake to pass on information and discuss solution. </p>
<p>Bushfire Recovery Victoria has <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/community-recovery-package#community-recovery-hubs-15-million">committed A$15 million</a> for setting up community recovery hubs, but it remains to be seen how these are modelled and managed. </p>
<p>The community hubs in India have had many benefits. The main one was that the community trusted the information the people in the hub provided, which countered misinformation. A side effect of community engagement in this hub was their emotional recovery.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/disaster-recovery-from-australias-fires-will-be-a-marathon-not-a-sprint-129325">Disaster recovery from Australia's fires will be a marathon, not a sprint</a>
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<p>These hubs also managed to influence major changes in recovery policy. Reconstruction shifted from being government-driven to community-driven and owner-driven. </p>
<p>This was mainly possible due to the <em>Setu Kendras</em> acting as a two-way conduit for information and opinions. Community members were able to raise their concerns with government in a way that got heard, and visa versa. </p>
<p>Due to the success of coordination hubs in Gujarat after 2001, the state government of Bihar adopted the model in 2008. It set up one hub per 4,000 houses. In Gujarat, these hubs continued for more than 13 years. </p>
<p>The UN agency for human settlements, UN-Habitat, <a href="https://www.in.undp.org/content/india/en/home/library/environment_energy/from-relief-to-Recovery.html">notes</a> these community hubs as an innovation worth replicating. </p>
<p>We in Australia are at a point when we need to create such hubs to bring together researchers, scientists, practitioners, government and community members. They need to have an open conversation about their challenges, values and priorities, to be able to negotiate and plan our way forward. </p>
<p>Australia needs a marriage between government leadership and innovation by grassroots community organisations to produce a well-planned recovery program that helps us achieve a resilient future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130385/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mittul Vahanvati received funding from RMIT scholarship for PhD (2012-2018). She is affiliated with RMIT University's Climate Change Transformations Research Group; Bushfire Natural Hazards CRC and Urban Community of Practice (Red Cross and ACFID). </span></em></p>Australia can learn from how India used community hubs to bridge the gap between government and local communities in the challenging years of reconstruction.Mittul Vahanvati, Lecturer, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1291392020-01-22T02:50:38Z2020-01-22T02:50:38ZAs Earth’s population heads to 10 billion, does anything Australians do on climate change matter?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311036/original/file-20200121-145010-1ri1l23.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4960%2C3994&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The United Nations predicts the world will be home to nearly 10 billion people by 2050 – making global greenhouse emission cuts ever more urgent.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/90008/night-light-maps-open-up-new-applications">NASA/Joshua Stevens</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As unprecedented bushfires continue to ravage the country, Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his government have been rightly <a href="https://theconversation.com/listen-to-your-people-scott-morrison-the-bushfires-demand-a-climate-policy-reboot-129348">criticised</a> for their reluctance to talk about the underlying drivers of this crisis. Yet it’s not hard to see why they might be dumbstruck. </p>
<p>The human race has never had to grapple with a problem as large, complex or urgent as climate change. It’s not that there aren’t solutions available. There are already some hopeful signs of an <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/resources/resources-hub/clean-energy-australia-report">energy transition</a> in Australia. As <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-could-fall-apart-under-climate-change-but-theres-a-way-to-avoid-it-126341">Professor Ross Garnaut</a> has explained, it would be in Australia’s economic interests to become a low-carbon energy <a href="https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/superpower">superpower</a>.</p>
<p>To successfully tackle climate change will require some painful transitions domestically, and unprecedented levels of international coordination and cooperation. But that isn’t happening. Global action to cut emissions is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3352">falling far short</a> of what’s needed – and meanwhile, though it’s controversial to mention, the world’s population quietly climbs ever higher. </p>
<h2>Our growing population challenge</h2>
<p>The United Nations’ <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/publications/world-population-prospects-2019-highlights.html">World Population Prospects 2019 report</a> forecast that by 2027, India will overtake China as the world’s most populous country. </p>
<p>By 2050, the UN predicts that the world’s population will be nearly 10 billion, up from 7.7 billion now. Nine countries are expected to be home to more than half of that growth: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the United States. The population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to double by 2050 (a 99% increase), while Australia and New Zealand are expected to grow more slowly (28% increase).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311043/original/file-20200121-144962-2sskur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311043/original/file-20200121-144962-2sskur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311043/original/file-20200121-144962-2sskur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311043/original/file-20200121-144962-2sskur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311043/original/file-20200121-144962-2sskur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311043/original/file-20200121-144962-2sskur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311043/original/file-20200121-144962-2sskur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311043/original/file-20200121-144962-2sskur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The world’s population growth rate in recent years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://population.un.org/wpp/Maps/">World Population Prospects 2019, United Nations</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Given how difficult climate politics have been here in Australia, why would we expect it to be any more politically feasible in say, India, which <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/indian-leaders-vow-to-fight-poverty-to-win-over-poor-voters/a-48494945">claims the right</a> to develop as we did? However self-serving Australian coal supporters’ arguments about <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/oct/18/josh-frydenberg-puts-strong-moral-case-for-coal-exports-to-prevent-deaths">lifting Indians out of poverty</a> are, the underlying questions of national autonomy and the ‘right’ to develop are not easily refuted.</p>
<p>Even talking about demography is asking for trouble – especially if it becomes caught up with questions of race, identity and the most fundamental of human rights, the right to reproduce. </p>
<p>While reducing population growth is plainly important in the long-term, it <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4246304/">isn’t a quick fix</a> for all our environmental problems. In the meantime, research has shown that supporting <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2016/02/16/climate-change-fertility-and-girls-education/">education for girls</a> in poor countries is one of the single most important things we can do now to address this issue.</p>
<h2>How Australia can show leadership</h2>
<blockquote>
<p>I think we need to understand that global emissions don’t have an accent, they come from many countries and we need to look at a global solution… – Prime Minister Scott Morrison on <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/interview-david-speers-abc-insiders">Insiders, ABC</a>, 12 January 2020</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This is the central defence of business as usual: there’s no point in Australia making huge sacrifices and ‘<a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/meeting-our-climate-commitments-without-wrecking-economy">wrecking</a>’ (or transforming, depending on your perspective) the economy if no one else is doing so. We contribute less than 2% to global greenhouse emissions, so – <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-answer-the-argument-that-australias-emissions-are-too-small-to-make-a-difference-118825">some claim</a> – we can’t make any real difference.</p>
<p>As outlined in my 2019 book, <a href="https://www.palgrave.com/us/book/9789811374760">Environmental Populism: The Politics of Survival in the Anthropocene</a>, nations such as Australia can play a useful role by showing what an enlightened country, with the capacity and incentive to act, might do. If we don’t have the means and the compelling environmental reasons to make tough but meaningful policy choices, who does?</p>
<p>But even in the unlikely event that Australians collectively retrofitted the entire economy along sustainable lines, there would still be a lot of the world that wouldn’t, or couldn’t even if they wanted to. The development imperative really is non-negotiable in India, China and the more impoverished states of sub-Saharan Africa. </p>
<h2>Will China lead the way?</h2>
<p>From the privileged perspective of wealthy Australians, the ‘good’ news is that the <a href="http://data.footprintnetwork.org/?_ga=2.120140427.2017862279.1573786123-2044019972.1573786123%20-%20/">ecological footprint</a> of the average Ethiopian is seven times smaller than ours. India’s average is even less, despite all the recent development. However, people in India and Ethiopia may not think that’s a good thing.</p>
<p>One of the paradoxical impacts of globalisation is that everyone is increasingly conscious of their relative place in the international scheme of things. The legitimacy of governments – especially unelected authoritarian regimes like China’s - increasingly revolves around their capacity to deliver jobs and <a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3002866/china-risks-legitimacy-communist-partys-regime-without">rising living standards</a>. Where governments can’t deliver, the population <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/10/1049641">vote with their feet</a>.</p>
<p>As naturalist Sir David Attenborough <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51123638">warned last week</a>, Australia’s current fires are another sign that “the moment of crisis has come”. He called on China for the global leadership we’ve been missing:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>If the Chinese come and say: 'Not because we are worried about the world but for our own reasons, we are going to take major steps to curb our carbon output […]’, everybody else would fall into line, one thinks. That would be the big change that one could hope would happen.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>China has arguably already made the biggest contribution to our collective welfare with its highly contentious, now abandoned one-child policy. China’s population would have been <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs13524-017-0595-x">around 400 million people</a> larger without it, pushing us closer to the crisis Sir David fears.</p>
<p>To be clear, I’m <em>not</em> advocating compulsory population control, here or anywhere. But we do need to consider a future with billions more people, many of them aspiring to live as Australians do now.</p>
<p>Looking ahead, will Australians try to keep living as we do today? Or will we decide to set a new example of living well, without such a heavy ecological footprint? Resolving all these conundrums won’t be easy; perhaps not even possible. That’s another discomfiting reality that we may have to get used to.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129139/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Beeson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>To be clear, I’m not advocating compulsory population control, here or anywhere. But we do need to consider a future with billions more people, many of them aspiring to live as Australians do now.Mark Beeson, Professor of International Politics, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1301952020-01-20T19:04:11Z2020-01-20T19:04:11ZConservation scientists are grieving after the bushfires – but we must not give up<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310839/original/file-20200120-69563-95pvhg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Glossy black cockatoo populations on Kangaroo Island have been decimated. But a few precious survivors remain.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>That <a href="https://sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/01/08/australian-bushfires-more-than-one-billion-animals-impacted.html">a billion animals</a> may die as a result of this summer’s fires has horrified the world. For many conservation biologists and land managers, however, the unprecedented extent and ferocity of the fires has incinerated much more than koalas and their kin.</p>
<p>The scale of the destruction has challenged what is fundamentally an optimistic worldview held by conservationists: that with sufficient time and money, every species threatened by Australia’s 250 years of colonial transformation cannot just be saved from extinction, but can flourish once again.</p>
<p>The nation’s silent, apocalyptic firescapes have left many conservation biologists grieving – for the animals, the species, their optimism, and for some, lifetimes of diligent work. </p>
<p>So many of us are wondering: have lives spent furthering conservation been wasted? Should we give up on conservation work, when destruction can be wrought on the environment at such unprecedented scales? </p>
<p>The answer is, simply, no.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310819/original/file-20200120-118365-1kj2d9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310819/original/file-20200120-118365-1kj2d9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310819/original/file-20200120-118365-1kj2d9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310819/original/file-20200120-118365-1kj2d9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310819/original/file-20200120-118365-1kj2d9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310819/original/file-20200120-118365-1kj2d9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310819/original/file-20200120-118365-1kj2d9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A brushtail possum with ears and legs burnt in a bushfire in January.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">STEVEN SAPHORE</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Acknowledge the grief</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/bushfire-recovery/research-and-resources">Federal government figures</a> released on Monday showed more than half of the area occupied by about 115 threatened species has been affected by fire. Some of these species will now be at significantly greater threat of extinction. They include the long-footed potoroo, Kangaroo Island’s glossy black-cockatoo and the East Lynne midge orchid.</p>
<p>Some field ecologists lost study populations of species that had been researched and monitored for decades. Anecdotally, the fires have affected the best known population of the northern corroboree frog. Others lost substantial amounts of field equipment such as long-established automatic cameras needed to monitor wildlife responses <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/04/ecologists-warn-silent-death-australia-bushfires-endangered-species-extinction">to fire</a>.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tales-of-wombat-heroes-have-gone-viral-unfortunately-theyre-not-true-129891">Tales of wombat 'heroes' have gone viral. Unfortunately, they're not true</a>
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<p>Of course, action is an effective therapy for grief. There is plenty to do: assess the extent of damage, find and nurture the unburned fragments, feed the survivors, and limit further damage to burned but recovering areas of native vegetation.</p>
<p>The official recovery response has been swift. <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/supporting-our-bushfire-affected-wildlife">Victoria</a>,
<a href="https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/topics/parks-reserves-and-protected-areas/fire/park-recovery-and-rehabilitation/recovering-from-2019-20-fires/understanding-the-impact-of-the-2019-20-fires">New South Wales</a> and now <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/bushfire-recovery/research-and-resources">the Commonwealth</a> have all issued clear statements about what’s happened and how they’re responding. The determination and unity among government agencies, researchers and conservation groups has been remarkable.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310823/original/file-20200120-118347-1ifhwo9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310823/original/file-20200120-118347-1ifhwo9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310823/original/file-20200120-118347-1ifhwo9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310823/original/file-20200120-118347-1ifhwo9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310823/original/file-20200120-118347-1ifhwo9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310823/original/file-20200120-118347-1ifhwo9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310823/original/file-20200120-118347-1ifhwo9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A dead koala after the Kangaroo Island bushfires.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Mariuz/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, busyness may just be postponing the grief. Many universities have rightly offered counselling to affected staff – as, presumably, have other institutions. Many researchers are bereft and questioning their chosen vocation. </p>
<p>But as we grieve, we must also remember that decades of conservation work has not been in vain. Some populations and species may indeed have been lost in the recent fires – we shall not know until long after the smoke clears. But the <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/book/7705/">conservation efforts of the past</a> mean fewer species have been lost than would have been the case otherwise.</p>
<h2>Focus on survivors</h2>
<p>Take the subspecies of glossy black cockatoos endemic to Kangaroo Island. Up to 80% of the area the cockatoos occupy has been burnt – but <a href="https://7news.com.au/news/sa/kangaroo-islands-glossy-black-cockatoo-population-feared-decimated-by-fires-c-647155">some survivors</a> have been sighted.</p>
<p>Decades of work by researchers, conservation managers and the community had <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/07/kangaroo-island-bushfires-grave-fears-for-unique-wildlife-after-estimated-25000-koalas-killed">reportedly brought the cockatoos’ numbers</a> from about 150 to 400. Without this <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/book/7705">extraordinary effort</a>,
there would have been no cockatoos to worry about during these fires, no knowledge of how to help survivors and no community of cockatoo lovers to pick up the work again.</p>
<p>Or take the southern corroboree frog. At Melbourne Zoo, a giant black and yellow frog guards the entrance to a facility where the species is being bred for release. This success is the result of decades of research into this highly imperilled species. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-season-in-hell-bushfires-push-at-least-20-threatened-species-closer-to-extinction-129533">A season in hell: bushfires push at least 20 threatened species closer to extinction</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>The captive colony was established exactly because a catastrophic event could overwhelm the species in the wild. This fire season is the <a href="https://www.zoo.org.au/fighting-extinction/local-threatened-species/southern-corroboree-frog/">latest in a sequence</a> of existential threats.</p>
<p>This hard-won knowledge of threats is also improving the nature and speed of fire response. For example, there is now far greater awareness of the <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/book/7784">damage introduced predators can wreak</a>, especially after severe fires when animals are exposed and vulnerable in a burnt landscape. Control of feral cats and foxes will be critical. Effective fox control immediately following fires in 2003 was likely to have been critical in the persistence and then recovery of the endangered Eastern Bristlebird. </p>
<p>Introduced herbivores such as deer and horses will remove food resources for native herbivores, damage fire-sensitive soils, and weeds will take advantage of the cleared ground. Managing these threats at large scale soon after fires have been extinguished will be needed.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310825/original/file-20200120-118347-1qwzwiu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310825/original/file-20200120-118347-1qwzwiu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310825/original/file-20200120-118347-1qwzwiu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310825/original/file-20200120-118347-1qwzwiu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310825/original/file-20200120-118347-1qwzwiu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310825/original/file-20200120-118347-1qwzwiu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310825/original/file-20200120-118347-1qwzwiu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A wildlife volunteer nurses a rescued flying fox earlier this month.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stephen Saphore/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Outside the fire zones</h2>
<p>The conservation focus of late has, understandably, been on areas burnt. But it is also critical to continue conservation efforts away from the fire zones.</p>
<p>A recent analysis of the 20 species of mammals and birds most likely to become extinct in the next 20 years showed they are <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/pc/pdf/PC18006">scattered across the country</a>, mostly in places far from those recently burnt. </p>
<p>The bushfires require large-scale urgent action. But we must not withdraw attention and resources from species elsewhere that need saving. If anything, now we know the unprecedented scale of threats such as fire, more conservation funds are required across the board to prepare for similar events.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310831/original/file-20200120-69535-1zj49e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310831/original/file-20200120-69535-1zj49e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310831/original/file-20200120-69535-1zj49e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310831/original/file-20200120-69535-1zj49e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310831/original/file-20200120-69535-1zj49e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310831/original/file-20200120-69535-1zj49e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310831/original/file-20200120-69535-1zj49e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A rare pygmy possum found after bushfires swept through Kangaroo Island.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Mariuz/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>We must not give up</h2>
<p>Biodiversity loss is mounting across the world. If this generation is to pass on its biological inheritance to the next, more conservation science and management is urgently needed.</p>
<p>History does not have to repeat itself. Conservation programs have been severely set back, and people are right to mourn the severe impacts on biodiversity. But they should also take solace that their earlier efforts have not been wasted, and should recommit to the fight for recovery.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/animal-response-to-a-bushfire-is-astounding-these-are-the-tricks-they-use-to-survive-129327">Animal response to a bushfire is astounding. These are the tricks they use to survive</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In future fire seasons, the emergency response is likely to be better prepared to protect natural assets, as well as life and property. For example, the extraordinary <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/15/dinosaur-trees-firefighters-save-endangered-wollemi-pines-from-nsw-bushfires">emergency operation to protect the Wollemi pine</a> in NSW could be carried out for multiple species.</p>
<p>Those involved in conservation should lose neither hope nor ambition. We should learn from these fires and ensure that losses are fewer next time.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130195/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Garnett is a Deputy Director of the Threatened Species Recovery Hub of the National Environmental Science Program and coordinates BirdLife Australia's Threatened Species Committee</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brendan Wintle is Director of the National Environmental Science Program, Threatened Species Recovery Hub. He receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Victorian Government, the National Environmental Science Program, Parks Victoria</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Lindenmayer receives funding from the Australian Government, the Australian Research Council and the Victorian Government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Woinarski receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program's Threatened Species Recovery Hub. He is also a member of the Wildlife and Threatened Species Bushfire Recovery Expert Panel, but the views expressed here are personal and should not be taken to represent those of that panel.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martine Maron receives funding from a range of sources including the Australian Research Council, the National Environmental Science Program's Threatened Species Recovery Hub, the Science for Nature and People Partnership, and The New South Wales Environment Trust. She provides advice to several state and federal government environment agencies as well as WWF-Australia, is a director of BirdLife Australia, and a member of the Wentworth Group, the Alliance of Leading Environmental Researchers and Thinkers, and two threatened species recovery teams.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Legge receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program's Threatened Species Recovery Hub. She is also a member of the Wildlife and Threatened Species Bushfire Recovery Expert Panel, but the views expressed here are personal and should not be taken to represent those of that panel.</span></em></p>The destruction of recent fires is challenging our belief that with enough time, love and money, every threatened species can be saved. But there is plenty we can, and must, now do.Stephen Garnett, Professor of Conservation and Sustainable Livelihoods, Charles Darwin UniversityBrendan Wintle, Professor Conservation Ecology, The University of MelbourneDavid Lindenmayer, Professor, The Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National UniversityJohn Woinarski, Professor (conservation biology), Charles Darwin UniversityMartine Maron, ARC Future Fellow and Professor of Environmental Management, The University of QueenslandSarah Legge, Professor, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1295562020-01-10T05:06:26Z2020-01-10T05:06:26ZBushfires, bots and arson claims: Australia flung in the global disinformation spotlight<p>In the first week of 2020, hashtag #ArsonEmergency became the focal point of a new online narrative surrounding the bushfire crisis. </p>
<p>The message: the cause is arson, not climate change.</p>
<p>Police and bushfire services (and some <a href="https://twitter.com/BBCRosAtkins/status/1215034651489820673">journalists</a>) have contradicted this <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/08/police-contradict-claims-spread-online-exaggerating-arsons-role-in-australian-bushfires">claim</a>.</p>
<p>We <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/twitter-bots-and-trolls-promote-conspiracy-theories-about-australian-bushfires/">studied</a> about 300 Twitter accounts driving the #ArsonEmergency hashtag to identify inauthentic behaviour. We found many accounts using #ArsonEmergency were behaving “suspiciously”, compared to those using #AustraliaFire and #BushfireAustralia. </p>
<p>Accounts peddling #ArsonEmergency carried out activity similar to what we’ve witnessed in past disinformation campaigns, such as the coordinated behaviour of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/18/world/europe/russia-troll-factory.html">Russian trolls during the 2016 US presidential election</a>. </p>
<h2>Bots, trolls and trollbots</h2>
<p>The most effective disinformation campaigns use bot and troll accounts to infiltrate genuine political discussion, and shift it towards a different “<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02235-x">master narrative</a>”.</p>
<p>Bots and trolls have been a thorn in the side of fruitful political debate since Twitter’s early days. They mimic genuine opinions, akin to what a concerned citizen might display, with a goal of persuading others and gaining attention. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10584609.2018.1526238">Bots</a> are usually automated (acting without constant human oversight) and perform simple functions, such as retweeting or repeatedly pushing one type of content. </p>
<p>Troll accounts are controlled by humans. They try to stir controversy, hinder healthy debate and simulate fake grassroots movements. They aim to persuade, deceive and cause conflict.</p>
<p>We’ve observed both troll and bot accounts spouting disinformation regarding the bushfires on Twitter. We were able to distinguish these accounts as being inauthentic for two reasons. </p>
<p>First, we used sophisticated software tools including <a href="https://github.com/mkearney/tweetbotornot">tweetbotornot</a>, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/hbe2.115">Botometer</a>, and <a href="https://botsentinel.com/">Bot Sentinel</a>. </p>
<p>There are various definitions for the word “bot” or “troll”. Bot Sentinel says:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Propaganda bots are pieces of code that utilize Twitter API to automatically follow, tweet, or retweet other accounts bolstering a political agenda. Propaganda bots are designed to be polarizing and often promote content intended to be deceptive… Trollbot is a classification we created to describe human controlled accounts who exhibit troll-like behavior. </p>
<p>Some of these accounts frequently retweet known propaganda and fake news accounts, and they engage in repetitive bot-like activity. Other trollbot accounts target and harass specific Twitter accounts as part of a coordinated harassment campaign. Ideology, political affiliation, religious beliefs, and geographic location are not factors when determining the classification of a Twitter account.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>These machine learning tools compared the behaviour of known bots and trolls with the accounts tweeting the hashtags #ArsonEmergency, #AustraliaFire, and #BushfireAustralia. From this, they provided a “score” for each account suggesting how likely it was to be a bot or troll account. </p>
<p>We also manually analysed the Twitter activity of suspicious accounts and the characteristics of their profiles, to validate the origins of #ArsonEmergency, as well as the potential motivations of the accounts spreading the hashtag.</p>
<h2>Who to blame?</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, we don’t know who is behind these accounts, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1369118X.2019.1637447">as we can only access trace data such as tweet text and basic account information</a>. </p>
<p>This graph shows how many times #ArsonEmergency was tweeted between December 31 last year and January 8 this year:</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309369/original/file-20200109-80153-7kubgj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309369/original/file-20200109-80153-7kubgj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309369/original/file-20200109-80153-7kubgj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309369/original/file-20200109-80153-7kubgj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309369/original/file-20200109-80153-7kubgj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309369/original/file-20200109-80153-7kubgj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309369/original/file-20200109-80153-7kubgj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On the vertical axis is the number of tweets over time which featured #ArsonEmergency. On January 7, there were 4726 tweets.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Previous bot and troll campaigns have been thought to be the work of <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s42001-019-00051-x">foreign interference, such as Russian trolls</a>, or <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-08/topham-guerins-boomer-meme-industrial-complex/11682116?pfmredir=sm&sf223191298=1">PR firms hired to distract and manipulate voters</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/08/world/australia/fires-murdoch-disinformation.html">The New York Times has also</a> reported on perceptions that media magnate Rupert Murdoch is influencing Australia’s bushfire debate.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/weather-bureau-says-hottest-driest-year-on-record-led-to-extreme-bushfire-season-129447">Weather bureau says hottest, driest year on record led to extreme bushfire season</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Weeding-out inauthentic behaviour</h2>
<p>In late November, some Twitter accounts began using #ArsonEmergency to counter <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/not-normal-climate-change-bushfire-web/">evidence</a> that climate change is linked to the severity of the bushfire crisis.</p>
<p>Below is one of the earliest examples of an attempt to replace #ClimateEmergency with #ArsonEmergency. The accounts tried to get #ArsonEmergency trending to drown out dialogue acknowledging the link between climate change and bushfires.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309228/original/file-20200109-80144-ino2th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309228/original/file-20200109-80144-ino2th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=643&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309228/original/file-20200109-80144-ino2th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=643&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309228/original/file-20200109-80144-ino2th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=643&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309228/original/file-20200109-80144-ino2th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=808&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309228/original/file-20200109-80144-ino2th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=808&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309228/original/file-20200109-80144-ino2th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=808&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We suspect the origins of the #ArsonEmergency debacle can be traced back to a few accounts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The hashtag was only tweeted a few times in 2019, but gained traction this year in a sustained effort by about 300 accounts.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/twitter-bots-and-trolls-promote-conspiracy-theories-about-australian-bushfires/">A much larger portion of bot and troll-like accounts</a> pushed #ArsonEmergency, than they did #AustraliaFire and #BushfireAustralia. </p>
<p>The narrative was then adopted by genuine accounts who furthered its spread. </p>
<p>On multiple occasions, we noticed suspicious accounts countering expert opinions while using the #ArsonEmergency hashtag.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309229/original/file-20200109-80132-nbxowa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309229/original/file-20200109-80132-nbxowa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=764&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309229/original/file-20200109-80132-nbxowa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=764&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309229/original/file-20200109-80132-nbxowa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=764&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309229/original/file-20200109-80132-nbxowa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=960&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309229/original/file-20200109-80132-nbxowa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=960&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309229/original/file-20200109-80132-nbxowa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=960&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The inauthentic accounts engaged with genuine users in an effort to persuade them.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Bad publicity</h2>
<p>Since media coverage has shone light on the disinformation campaign, #ArsonEmergency has gained even more prominence, but in a different light. </p>
<p>Some journalists are acknowledging the role of disinformation bushfire crisis – and countering narrative the Australia has an arson emergency. However, the campaign does indicate Australia has a climate denial problem. </p>
<p>What’s clear to me is that Australia has been propelled into the global disinformation battlefield. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/watching-our-politicians-fumble-through-the-bushfire-crisis-im-overwhelmed-by-deja-vu-129338">Watching our politicians fumble through the bushfire crisis, I'm overwhelmed by déjà vu</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Keep your eyes peeled</h2>
<p>It’s difficult to debunk disinformation, as it often contains a grain of truth. In many cases, it leverages people’s previously held beliefs and biases. </p>
<p>Humans are particularly vulnerable to disinformation in times of emergency, or when addressing contentious issues like climate change.</p>
<p>Online users, especially journalists, need to stay on their toes. </p>
<p>The accounts we come across on social media may not represent genuine citizens and their concerns. A trending hashtag may be trying to mislead the public.</p>
<p>Right now, it’s more important than ever for us to prioritise factual news from reliable sources – and identify and combat disinformation. The Earth’s future could depend on it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129556/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Graham receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tobias R. Keller receives funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>We found about 300 suspicious Twitter accounts, which we suspect included a high proportion of bots and trolls pushing the #ArsonEmergency narrative.Timothy Graham, Senior Lecturer, Queensland University of TechnologyTobias R. Keller, Visiting Postdoc, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1295572020-01-09T18:51:52Z2020-01-09T18:51:52Z6 things to ask yourself before you share a bushfire map on social media<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309222/original/file-20200109-80148-zyu1n7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C7%2C1302%2C693&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">NASA’s Worldview software gives you a satellite view of Earth right now, and can help track the spread of fires. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=114.34749631694407,-50.093019230617045,181.39046506694407,-19.577394230617045&t=2020-01-04-T00%3A00%3A00Z&l=Reference_Labels,Reference_Features,Coastlines,MODIS_Combined_Thermal_Anomalies_All,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor">Nasa Worldview</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In recent days, many worrying bushfire maps have been circulating online, some appearing to suggest all of Australia is burning. </p>
<p>You might have seen this example, decried by some as <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/lanesainty/viral-australian-bushfire-maps-confusing-false-information">misleading</a>, prompting this Instagram post by its creator:</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/B67bRtPnVzR","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<p>As he explained, the image isn’t a NASA photo. What a satellite actually “sees” is quite different. </p>
<p>I’ll explain how we use data collected by satellites to estimate how much of an area is burning, or has already been burnt, and what this information should look like once it’s mapped.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-crisis-of-underinsurance-threatens-to-scar-rural-australia-permanently-129343">A crisis of underinsurance threatens to scar rural Australia permanently</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Reflective images</h2>
<p>When astronauts look out their window in space, this is what they see: </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1213531558113632256"}"></div></p>
<p>It’s similar to what you might see from an aeroplane window, but higher and covering a wider area.</p>
<p>As you read this, many unmanned satellites are orbiting and photographing Earth. These images are used to monitor fires in real-time. They fall into two categories: reflective and thermal. </p>
<p>Reflective images capture information in the visible range of the electromagnetic spectrum (in other words, what we can see). But they also capture information in wavelengths we can’t see, such as infrared wavelengths.</p>
<p>If we use only the visible wavelengths, we can render the image similar to what we might see with the naked eye from a satellite. We call these “true colour” images.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309003/original/file-20200108-107235-zihue2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309003/original/file-20200108-107235-zihue2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309003/original/file-20200108-107235-zihue2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309003/original/file-20200108-107235-zihue2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309003/original/file-20200108-107235-zihue2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309003/original/file-20200108-107235-zihue2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=615&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309003/original/file-20200108-107235-zihue2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=615&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309003/original/file-20200108-107235-zihue2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=615&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This is a true colour image of south-east Australia, taken on January 4th 2020 from the MODIS instrument on the Aqua satellite. Fire smoke is grey, clouds are white, forests are dark green, brown areas are dryland agricultural areas, and the ocean is blue.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA Worldview / https://go.nasa.gov/307pDDX</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Note that the image doesn’t have political boundaries, as these aren’t physical features. To make satellite imagery useful for navigation, we overlay the map with location points.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309014/original/file-20200108-107214-1493w5s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309014/original/file-20200108-107214-1493w5s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309014/original/file-20200108-107214-1493w5s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309014/original/file-20200108-107214-1493w5s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309014/original/file-20200108-107214-1493w5s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309014/original/file-20200108-107214-1493w5s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309014/original/file-20200108-107214-1493w5s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309014/original/file-20200108-107214-1493w5s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The same image shown as true colour, with the relevant geographical features overlaid.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA Worldview / https://go.nasa.gov/2TafEMH</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>From this, we can predict where the fires are by looking at the smoke. However, the fires themselves are not directly visible. </p>
<h2>‘False colour’ images</h2>
<p>Shortwave infrared bands are less sensitive to smoke and more sensitive to fire, which means they can tell us where fire is present. </p>
<p>Converting these wavelengths into visible colours produces what we call “false colour” images. For instance:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309015/original/file-20200108-107200-18mtd8x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309015/original/file-20200108-107200-18mtd8x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309015/original/file-20200108-107200-18mtd8x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309015/original/file-20200108-107200-18mtd8x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309015/original/file-20200108-107200-18mtd8x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309015/original/file-20200108-107200-18mtd8x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309015/original/file-20200108-107200-18mtd8x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309015/original/file-20200108-107200-18mtd8x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The same image, this time shown as false colour. Now, the fire smoke is partially transparent grey while the clouds aren’t. Red shows the active fires and brown shows where bushfires have recently burnt.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA Worldview / https://go.nasa.gov/2NhzRfN</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In this shortwave infrared image, we start to “see” under the smoke, and can identify active fires. We can also learn more about the areas that are already burnt. </p>
<h2>Thermal and hotspots</h2>
<p>As their name suggests, thermal images measure how hot or cold everything in the frame is. Active fires are detected as “hotspots” and mapped as points on the surface. </p>
<p>While reflective imagery is only useful when obtained by a satellite during daytime, thermal hotspots can be measured at night – doubling our capacity to observe active fires.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309011/original/file-20200108-107204-1ax9guv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309011/original/file-20200108-107204-1ax9guv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309011/original/file-20200108-107204-1ax9guv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309011/original/file-20200108-107204-1ax9guv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309011/original/file-20200108-107204-1ax9guv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309011/original/file-20200108-107204-1ax9guv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309011/original/file-20200108-107204-1ax9guv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309011/original/file-20200108-107204-1ax9guv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The same image shown as false color, with hotspots overlaid in red.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA Worldview / https://go.nasa.gov/2rZNIj9</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This information can be used to create maps showing the aggregation of hotspots over several days, weeks or months. </p>
<p><a href="https://hotspots.dea.ga.gov.au/">Geoscience Australia’s Digital Earth hotspots service</a> shows hotspots across the continent in the last 72 hours. It’s worth reading the “about” section to learn the limitations or potential for error in the map.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/spread-the-word-the-value-of-local-information-in-disaster-response-11626">Spread the word: the value of local information in disaster response</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>When hotspots, which show “hot” pixels, are shown as extremely big icons, or are collected over long periods, the results can be deceiving. They can indicate a much larger area to be under fire than what is really burning.</p>
<p>For example, it would be wrong to believe all the areas in red in the map below are burning or have already burnt. It’s also unclear over what period of time the hotspots were aggregated.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309008/original/file-20200108-107249-1klv52u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309008/original/file-20200108-107249-1klv52u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309008/original/file-20200108-107249-1klv52u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309008/original/file-20200108-107249-1klv52u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309008/original/file-20200108-107249-1klv52u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309008/original/file-20200108-107249-1klv52u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309008/original/file-20200108-107249-1klv52u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The ‘world map of fire hotspots’ from the Environmental Investigation Agency.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Environmental Investigation Agency / https://eia-international.org/news/watching-the-world-burn-fires-threaten-the-worlds-tropical-forests-and-millions-of-people/</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Get smart</h2>
<p>Considering all of the above, there are some key questions you can ask to gauge the authenticity of a bushfire map. These are: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>Where does this map come from, and who produced it? </p></li>
<li><p>is this a single satellite image, or one using hotspots overlaid on a map? </p></li>
<li><p>what are the colours representing? </p></li>
<li><p>do I know when this was taken? </p></li>
<li><p>if this map depicts hotspots, over what period of time were they collected? A day, a whole year?</p></li>
<li><p>is the size of the hotspots representative of the area that is actually burning? </p></li>
</ul>
<p>So, the next time you see a bushfire map, think twice before pressing the share button.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129557/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Juan Pablo Guerschman receives funding from the Australian Department of Agriculture. </span></em></p>By understanding how bushfire maps are created, and what their features represent, you can get better at spotting fake ones.Juan Pablo Guerschman, Senior Research Scientist, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1294462020-01-09T04:54:52Z2020-01-09T04:54:52ZAs fires rage, we must use social media for long-term change, not just short-term fundraising<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308955/original/file-20200108-107204-1rv6ofj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=452%2C18%2C766%2C570&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Comedian Celeste Barber's fundraising efforts have gained monumental support. But we need to think of long-term engagement in climate action too.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.facebook.com/donate/1010958179269977/">Facebook</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With 26 fatalities, half a billion animals impacted and 10.7 million hectares of land burnt, Australia faces a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/jan/08/nsw-fires-live-updates-victoria-bushfires-south-australia-fire-sa-australian-bushfire-near-me-rfs-cfa-latest-news-wednesday">record-breaking bushfire season</a>. </p>
<p>Yet, amid the despondency, moving stories have emerged of phenomenal fundraising conducted through social media. </p>
<p>At the forefront is Australian comedian Celeste Barber, whose <a href="https://www.facebook.com/donate/1010958179269977/">Facebook fundraiser</a> has raised more than AUD$45 million - the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/celeste-barber-facebook-bushfires-fundraiser-2020-1">largest amount in the platform’s history</a>. </p>
<p>Presenting shocking visuals, sites such as Instagram, Twitter and Facebook have been monumental in communicating the severity of the fires. </p>
<p>But at a time when experts predict worsening climate conditions and longer fire seasons, short bursts of compassion and donations aren’t enough. </p>
<p>For truly effective action against current and future fires, we need to use social media to implement lasting transformations, to our attitudes, and our ability to address climate change.</p>
<h2>Get out of your echo-chamber</h2>
<p>Links between social media and public engagement are complex. Their combination can be helpful, as we’re witnessing, but doesn’t necessarily help solve problems requiring long-term attention.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-bringing-a-new-world-of-bushfires-123261">Climate change is bringing a new world of bushfires</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>Online spaces can cultivate <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/05/why-social-media-ruining-political-discourse/589108/">polarising, and sometimes harmful, debate</a>.</p>
<p>Past research indicates <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0206841">the presence of online echo chambers</a>, and users’ tendency to <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-just-blame-echo-chambers-conspiracy-theorists-actively-seek-out-their-online-communities-127119">seek interaction</a> with others holding the same beliefs as them.</p>
<p>If you’re stuck in an echo chamber, Harvard Law School lecturer Erica Ariel Fox <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ericaarielfox/2017/10/26/how-to-escape-the-echo-chamber/#53f1f6f14d10">suggests</a> breaking the mould by going out of your way to understand diverse opinions. </p>
<p>Before gearing up to disagree with others, she recommends acknowledging the contradictions and biases you yourself hold, and embracing the opposing sides of yourself.</p>
<p>In tough times, many start to assign blame – often with political or personal agendas.</p>
<p>In the crisis engulfing Australia, we’ve seen this with repeated accusations from conservatives claiming the Greens party <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/is-more-prescribed-burning-the-answer-to-bushfire-threat/11844766">have made fire hazard reduction more difficult</a>.</p>
<p>In such conversations, larger injustices and the underlying political challenges are often forgotten. The structural conditions underpinning the crisis remain unchallenged. </p>
<h2>Slow and steady</h2>
<p>We need <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/slow-burn/">to rethink our approach</a> to dealing with climate change, and <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/global-warming-effects/">its harmful effects</a>.</p>
<p>First, we should acknowledge there is no quick way to resolve the issue, despite the immediacy of the threats it poses. </p>
<p>Political change is slow, and needs steady growth. This is particularly true for climate politics, an issue which <a href="https://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199566600.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199566600-e-1">challenges the social and economic structures we rely on</a>.</p>
<p>Our values and aspirations must also change, and be reflected in our online conversations. Our dialogue should shift from blame to a culture of appreciation, and growing concern for the impact of climate degradation. </p>
<p>Users should continue to explore and learn online, but need to do so in an informed way. </p>
<p>Reading Facebook and Twitter content is fine, but this must be complemented with <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2016/12/05/503581220/fake-or-real-how-to-self-check-the-news-and-get-the-facts">reliable news sources</a>. Follow authorised user accounts providing fact-based articles and guidance. </p>
<p>Before you join an online debate, it’s important you can back your claims. This helps prevent the spread of misinformation online, which is unfortunately rampant.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2018-02/Measuring%20the%20reach%20of%20fake%20news%20and%20online%20distribution%20in%20Europe%20CORRECT%20FLAG.pdf">2018 Reuters Institute report</a> found people’s interaction (sharing, commenting and reacting) with false news from a small number of Facebook outlets “generated more or as many interactions as established news brands”.</p>
<p>Also, avoid regressive discussions with dead-ends. <a href="https://sproutsocial.com/insights/social-media-algorithms/">Social media algorithms</a> dictate that the posts you engage with set the tone for future posts targeted at you, and more engagement with posts will make them more visible to other users too. Spend your time and effort wisely. </p>
<p>And lastly, the internet has made it easier than ever to contact political leaders, whether it’s <a href="https://twitter.com/ScottMorrisonMP">tweeting at your prime minister</a>, or reaching out to <a href="https://www.facebook.com/SussanLeyMP/">the relevant minister</a> on Facebook.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/listen-to-your-people-scott-morrison-the-bushfires-demand-a-climate-policy-reboot-129348">Listen to your people Scott Morrison: the bushfires demand a climate policy reboot</a>
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<h2>Tangible change-making</h2>
<p>History has proven meaningful social and political progress requires sustained public awareness and engagement.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309178/original/file-20200109-138677-1e9h83o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309178/original/file-20200109-138677-1e9h83o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309178/original/file-20200109-138677-1e9h83o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309178/original/file-20200109-138677-1e9h83o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309178/original/file-20200109-138677-1e9h83o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309178/original/file-20200109-138677-1e9h83o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1634&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309178/original/file-20200109-138677-1e9h83o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1634&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309178/original/file-20200109-138677-1e9h83o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1634&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Australian comedian Celeste Barber started fundraising with a goal of $30,000.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.facebook.com/donate/1010958179269977/1015653102133818/">Celeste Barber/Facebook</a></span>
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<p>Consider Australia’s recent legislation on <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-year-that-marriage-equality-finally-came-to-australia">marriage equality</a>, or the historical transformation of <a href="https://history.house.gov/Exhibitions-and-Publications/WIC/Historical-Essays/No-Lady/Womens-Rights/">women’s rights</a>. </p>
<p>These issues affect people constantly, but fixing them required debate over long periods.</p>
<p>We should draw on the awareness raised over the past weeks, and not let dialogue about the heightened threat of bushfires fizzle out. </p>
<p>We must not return to our practices of <a href="http://sourcesofinsight.com/13-negative-motivation-patterns/">do-nothingism</a> as soon as the immediate disaster subsides. </p>
<p>Although bushfire fundraisers have collected millions, a <a href="http://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/docs/findings/ESS8_toplines_issue_9_climatechange.pdf">European Social Survey</a> of 44,387 respondents from 23 countries found that – while most participants were worried about climate change – less than one-third were willing to pay higher taxes on fossil fuels.</p>
<p>If we want climate action, we must expect more from our governments but also from ourselves.</p>
<p>Social media should be used to <em>consistently</em> pressure government to take principled stances on key issues, not short-sighted policies geared towards the next election.</p>
<h2>Opening the public’s eyes</h2>
<p>There’s no denying social media has successfully <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/gallery/2020/jan/01/new-years-disaster-full-horror-of-australias-bushfires-begins-to-emerge-in-pictures">driven home the extent of devastation</a> caused by the fires.</p>
<p>A clip from Fire and Rescue NSW, viewed 7.8 million times on Twitter alone, gives audiences a view of what it’s like fighting on the frontlines.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1211943881790509056"}"></div></p>
<p>Images <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/gallery/2020/jan/08/scorched-earth-the-bushfire-devastation-on-kangaroo-island-in-pictures">of burnt, suffering animals</a> and destroyed homes, resorts, farms and forests have signalled the horror of what has passed and what may come.</p>
<p>Social media can be a formidable source of inspiration and action. It’s expected to become even more pervasive in our lives, and this is why <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2019/12/3/20980741/fake-news-facebook-twitter-misinformation-lies-fact-check-how-to-internet-guide">it must be used carefully</a>. </p>
<p>While showings of solidarity are incredibly helpful, what happens in the coming weeks and months, after the fires pass, is what will matter most.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129446/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emma Hutchison receives funding from the Australian Research Council and from a University of Queensland Foundation Research Excellence Award. These grants are enabling research into the roles emotions play in shaping local and global politics. </span></em></p>Celeste Barber’s $45 million fundraiser is amazing, but battling Australia’s fires should be an ongoing effort. With the help of social media, it can be.Emma Hutchison, Associate Professor and ARC DECRA Fellow, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1294502020-01-07T06:03:49Z2020-01-07T06:03:49Z‘This crisis has been unfolding for years’: 4 photos of Australia from space, before and after the bushfires<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308750/original/file-20200107-123389-1kyi7dz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=3%2C35%2C1172%2C756&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Use the slider tool in the images below to see before and after NASA satellite images of Australia's fire and drought effects.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/">NASA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: We pulled four before-and-after-images from <a href="https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov">NASA’s Worldview application</a>, and asked bushfire researcher Grant Williamson to reflect on the story they tell. Here’s what he told us:</em></p>
<hr>
<p>I’ve been studying fires for more than a decade. I use satellite data to try to understand the global and regional patterns in fire – what drives it and how it will shift in the future as our climate and land use patterns change. </p>
<p>When I look at these images I think: this is a crisis we have seen coming for years. It’s something I have been watching unfold.</p>
<p>Look at the sheer scale of it. Seeing this much fire in the landscape in such a broad area, seeing so much severe fire at once, this quantity and concentration of smoke – it is astonishing. I haven’t seen it like this before. </p>
<h2>November 1, 2019 and January 3, 2020</h2>
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<p>In this comparison, you can see November last year versus now. In the present picture (on the right hand side) you can see a vast quantity of intense fires currently burning right down the eastern seaboard and a huge amount of smoke. It’s been blowing out across toward New Zealand for weeks now. </p>
<p>The scale of the current fires is definitely unusual. In a typical year, you might see, for example, a large fire in the alps (near Mount Kosciuszko) or in the Blue Mountains – but they would be isolated events. </p>
<p>What’s striking here is that there is so much going on at once. I have never seen it like this before. </p>
<h2>Black Saturday smoke, Feburary 8, 2009 and the 2019-2020 bushfires smoke, January 3, 2020</h2>
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<p>This one is comparing two smoke events: one from Black Saturday and one from the current fires. In both cases, huge quantities of smoke was released. Both times, the sort of forest burning is very dense, there is a lot of wet eucalypt forest here which naturally has a high fuel load and that’s creating all that smoke. This type of forest only burns during extreme weather conditions.</p>
<p>Simply due to the scale of it and the fact that it’s been going on so long, I would say the current event is worse than Black Saturday, in terms of the quantity of smoke.</p>
<h2>East Australia, 10 years ago vs today</h2>
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<p>In this image, we can the impact of drought. A decade ago, on the left hand side, it was clearly quite green along eastern Australia. That green shows there is a lot of growing vegetation there: pasture crops, grasses and a very wet environment.</p>
<p>If you compare that to the current year, on the right hand side, you can see it’s now extremely brown and extremely dry. There’s not much in the way of vegetation. That’s a result of drought and high temperatures. </p>
<h2>Kangaroo Island, 2 months ago vs today</h2>
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<p>In this image, you can see Kangaroo Island two months ago on the left hand side, versus today. </p>
<p>The main thing I note here is the drying. The “before” image is so much greener than the “after” image. So there’s a real lack of rainfall that’s driving fire severity in this area. You can really see how much the island has dried out. </p>
<hr>
<p>This has been an extraordinary year for climate and weather, and that’s manifesting now in these unprecedented bushfires. It’s not over yet. </p>
<p>But what’s important is the lessons we draw from this crisis and doing as much as we can to reduce the risk in future.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Grant Williamson is a Tasmania-based researcher with the <a href="https://www.uow.edu.au/science-medicine-health/research/cermb/nsw-bushfire-risk-management-research-hub/">NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129450/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
We pulled four before-and-after NASA satellite images and asked bushfire researcher Grant Williamson to reflect on the story they tell.Sunanda Creagh, Senior EditorMolly Glassey, Digital Editor, The ConversationWes Mountain, Social Media + Visual Storytelling EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1293502020-01-07T00:03:59Z2020-01-07T00:03:59ZThere’s no evidence ‘greenies’ block bushfire hazard reduction but here’s a controlled burn idea worth trying<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308569/original/file-20200106-11914-13cjiaz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=81%2C47%2C712%2C563&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Locally managed hazard reduction could give communities greater ownership over prevention and leverage local knowledge.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Bowman</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The current bushfire crisis provides compelling evidence of the dangers posed by extremely dry landscapes and hot, windy conditions.</p>
<p>While there’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/05/explainer-how-effective-is-bushfire-hazard-reduction-on-australias-fires">no</a> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/12/is-there-really-a-green-conspiracy-to-stop-bushfire-hazard-reduction">evidence</a> “greenies” precipitated the current crisis by blocking hazard reduction, it is clear that we need to explore new ways to manage fuel loads to reduce the severity of bushfires.</p>
<p>It is worth considering how local, self organised, place-based, community groups could be supported to conduct various types of strategic hazard reduction, including targeted grazing and <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-back-burning-and-fuel-reduction-20605">prescribed or fuel reduction burning</a>. </p>
<h2>Using the Landcare model for bushfire hazard reduction</h2>
<p>One model we could look to is Landcare, which has enjoyed 30 years of bipartisan support. Funded and supported by governments, local, semi-autonomous, self-directed groups aim to take a sustainable approach to land management through on-ground projects such as habitat restoration and improving biodiversity.</p>
<p>This model could be applied to <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-back-burning-and-fuel-reduction-20605">prescribed or fuel reduction burning</a>, carried out by local “GreenFire” groups. This would involve:</p>
<p><strong>1. Developing and resourcing GreenFire groups.</strong></p>
<p>These would be the equivalent of district Landcare groups, but focused on hazard reduction and fuel management. These groups could be encouraged to learn <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-land-is-burning-and-western-science-does-not-have-all-the-answers-100331">patch-burning techniques</a>, and other landscape scale management practices, such as creating <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/1/1/3">green firebreaks</a> of non-flammable species. </p>
<p>If well coordinated, these techniques would reduce fire hazards across private and public lands. These groups could be an extension of existing Landcare groups combined with volunteer firefighting services. They would aim to increase capacity for fuel management at the landscape scale and provide opportunities for more people to learn skills and share knowledge, with and from professionals working in government forest and national parks agencies. </p>
<p>These kinds of activities, mostly in the cooler, green seasons would enhance the capacity of communities to prepare for future fires, and increase the capacity of traditional fire fighting to suppress dangerous fires.</p>
<p><strong>2. These groups could work under the mentorship and authorisation of fuel management/reduction officers.</strong> </p>
<p>These could be public officers such as district fire officers or senior staff of public land management agencies who have had a long involvement in <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/media/4893/overview-of-prescribed-burning-in-australasia.pdf">prescribed burning</a> and fuel management on public lands.</p>
<p><strong>3. In each district, fuel reduction periods could be officially declared.</strong>
With this declaration state governments would assume liability for fuel reduction fires, so long as they had the appropriate planning, approvals and resourcing (for example, they were undertaken by trained groups and certified by appropriate officials).</p>
<p><strong>4. Fuel reduction burning should employ Indigenous fire rangers, drawing on Indigenous knowledge and celebrating <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-land-is-burning-and-western-science-does-not-have-all-the-answers-100331">Indigenous patchwork burning</a> practices.</strong></p>
<p>Involving Indigenous communities in such a program would <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-19/cultural-burning-being-revived-by-aboriginal-people/8630038">combine traditional and modern burning practices</a>. Blending cultural and modern burning techniques has proven successful in <a href="https://theconversation.com/savanna-burning-carbon-pays-for-conservation-in-northern-australia-12185">major savanna burning programs</a> reducing carbon emissions from late season fires in Northern Australia.</p>
<h2>Prevention is better than firefighting</h2>
<p>Land use planning and management play key roles in shaping exposure to bushfire risks, and are therefore central to disaster mitigation.</p>
<p>Under conditions that favour wildfires, no amount of firefighting effort can protect all lives and property. <a href="http://royalcommission.vic.gov.au/Commission-Reports/Final-Report.html">Victoria’s Black Saturday Royal Commission</a> - a comprehensive inquiry into the fires in which 173 people died, more than 5000 were injured and more than 2,000 houses destroyed - found that under extreme conditions, wildfires overwhelm the capacity of emergency services.</p>
<p>South-eastern Australia has long experience of intense fires, yet our population has spread into the bushlands of coastal hinterlands and urban fringes. This has occurred despite scientists <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/17/what-could-i-have-done-the-scientist-who-predicted-the-bushfire-emergency-four-decades-ago">warning</a> for more than 30 years that wildfire risks were intensifying due to climate change.</p>
<p>There are no silver bullet fixes to reduce bushfires hazards. But pragmatic approaches based on extensive research have <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-april-2019-ten-years-after-the-black-saturday-fires-what-have-we-learnt-from-post-fire-research">improved disaster responses</a>, supported calls for <a href="http://royalcommission.vic.gov.au/Commission-Reports/Final-Report/Volume-2/Chapters/Planning-and-Building.html">stricter planning and building codes</a> and quantified the benefits of strategically <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-back-burning-and-fuel-reduction-20605">reducing fuel loads</a>. </p>
<h2>We must try creative new ways to reduce risk</h2>
<p>Since the <a href="http://www.voltscommissar.net/docs/Leonard_Stretton-1939_Bush_Fires_Royal_Commission_Report.pdf">Stretton Royal Commission</a> into the 1939 Black Friday bushfires, more than <a href="http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/urban_and_regional_planning.pdf">16 major inquiries</a> have called for greater use of integrated approaches to land use planning and management to minimise disaster risks.</p>
<p>With climate change increasing bushfire impacts and intensities, we need to build capacity in local communities to manage fire hazard. This requires education, training and adapting policies and landscape management practices to devise plans that suit local conditions.</p>
<p>Countless generations of Indigenous people have effectively managed fire risk through skillful burning. It is time to learn how to burn well and to share the techniques and methods that can enable us live well in our flammable landscape.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129350/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Alexandra was previously CEO of the Earthwatch Institute.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Bowman receives funding to study fire ecology and management from the Australian Research Council (ARC) , the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Bushfire and Natural Hazard CRC, and the Tasmanian Government Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and the Environment.</span></em></p>Local, self organised, community groups can be supported to do strategic hazard reduction through a range of techniques – including targeted grazing, and prescribed or fuel reduction burning.Jason Alexandra, PhD candidate, RMIT UniversityDavid Bowman, Professor of Pyrogeography and Fire Science, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1293442020-01-06T04:01:10Z2020-01-06T04:01:10ZBushfires have reshaped life on Earth before. They could do it again<p>The catastrophic bushfires raging across much of Australia have not only taken a huge human and economic toll, but also delivered heavy blows to <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/12/fires-rage-across-australia-fears-grow-rare-species">biodiversity</a> and ecosystem function. </p>
<p>Already, scientists are warning of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/04/ecologists-warn-silent-death-australia-bushfires-endangered-species-extinction">catastrophic extinctions</a> of animals and plants. </p>
<p>Humans have seldom if ever seen fires like these, but we do know that wildfires have driven mass extinctions and reshaped life on Earth at least once before – when the asteroid strike that led to the demise of the dinosaurs sparked deadly global firestorms.</p>
<h2>Australian biodiversity</h2>
<p>Australia is one of only 17 “<a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/conservation/hotspots">megadiverse</a>” countries. Much of our species richness is concentrated in areas torched by the current bushfires.</p>
<p>While some mammals and birds face elevated extinction risk, things will be even worse for small, less mobile invertebrates (which make up the bulk of animal biodiversity). </p>
<p>For example, the Gondwana Rainforests of New South Wales and Queensland have been badly affected by the fires. These World Heritage listed forests are home to a <a href="http://world-heritage-datasheets.unep-wcmc.org/datasheet/output/site/gondwana-rainforests-of-australia/">rich diversity of insects</a> and a huge range of <a href="http://molluscanmusings.blogspot.com/2013/07/on-diversity-of-land-snails-down-under.html">land snails</a>, some restricted to tiny patches.</p>
<p>The bushfires have been rightly described as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/22/australia-bushfires-factcheck-are-this-years-fires-unprecedented">unprecedented</a>, and extinctions can play out over an <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction_debt">extended period</a>. The full gravity of the impending catastrophe is not yet clear.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfires-are-pushing-species-towards-extinction-54109">Bushfires are pushing species towards extinction</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Fire has driven extinctions before</h2>
<p>There have been greater burnings in the deep past, as we can see from the fossil record. They provide strong and disturbing evidence of how fire drove widespread extinctions that completely reshaped life on Earth.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308540/original/file-20200105-11909-ahbx3g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308540/original/file-20200105-11909-ahbx3g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308540/original/file-20200105-11909-ahbx3g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308540/original/file-20200105-11909-ahbx3g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308540/original/file-20200105-11909-ahbx3g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308540/original/file-20200105-11909-ahbx3g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308540/original/file-20200105-11909-ahbx3g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308540/original/file-20200105-11909-ahbx3g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The ability to run fast and far was not enough to save dinosaurs from firestorms.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Douglas Henderson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Around 66 million years ago, a mass die-off called the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event famously put an end to the reign of dinosaurs (sparing only birds). This event erased 75% of the planet’s species. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-dinosaurs-could-have-survived-killer-asteroid/">Scientists agree</a> these extinctions were primarily caused by an asteroid about 10 kilometres wide crashing into present-day Mexico, blasting a huge crater the size of Tasmania. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/asteroid-kill-dinosaurs-fifth-mass-extinction-endless-night-winter-18-month-rain-fire-ice-age-a7904491.html">nuclear winter</a> followed the impact, as fine particles thrown up into the atmosphere blocked sunlight for years. The extended frozen darkness killed ecosystems from plants and phytoplankton upwards.</p>
<p>Recent research shows that <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/what-happened-seconds-hours-weeks-after-dino-killing-asteroid-hit-earth-180960032/">global wildfires</a> were likely also an important driver of extinctions, at least for life on land. </p>
<p>The asteroid blasted flaming debris across the atmosphere. Massive deposits of soot found in the fossil record at this precise time suggest <em>most</em> of the Earth’s forests went up in smoke, though these cataclysmic calculations remain <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2015/01/23/asteroid-firestorm-dino-killing_n_6524024.html?ri18n=true">controversial</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/did-fire-kill-off-australias-megafauna-19679">Did fire kill off Australia's megafauna?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Only animals that could escape fire survived</h2>
<p>The fossil record of land-dwelling animals – especially reptiles, birds and mammals – attests to the deadly efficiency of what has been dubbed the <a href="https://www.livescience.com/28582-asteroid-extinction-firestorm.html">dinosaur firestorm</a>. The nature of the victims and survivors is very relevant to current events.</p>
<p>The land animals that made it through the extinction all lived in ways that could confer <a href="http://www.spacedaily.com/news/deepimpact-04h.html">resilience to heat and fire</a>, such as living partly in water, being able to burrow or hide in deep crevices, or being able to escape rapidly by flight.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308541/original/file-20200105-11929-x1n2ci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308541/original/file-20200105-11929-x1n2ci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308541/original/file-20200105-11929-x1n2ci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308541/original/file-20200105-11929-x1n2ci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308541/original/file-20200105-11929-x1n2ci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308541/original/file-20200105-11929-x1n2ci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308541/original/file-20200105-11929-x1n2ci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308541/original/file-20200105-11929-x1n2ci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Land vertebrates that survived the ancient wildfires were either amphibious (crocodiles, freshwater tortoises), small enough to burrow or shelter (early rodent-sized mammals), or both amphibious and burrowing (platypuses).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Michael Lee</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Among reptiles, crocodilians and freshwater tortoises (both amphibious) sailed through. Worm-lizards and burrowing snakes survived, but surface-dwelling lizards and snakes were <a href="https://www.livescience.com/25392-lizards-killed-dinosaur-extinction.html">hard hit</a>. </p>
<p>Among mammals, platypus-like monotremes (aquatic and burrowing) clung on, as did tiny rodent-like placental mammals (able to burrow, or hide in deep crevices), but all large placental mammals died. And while at least some birds survived, all their large, earth-bound, dinosaurian relatives perished. </p>
<p>In fact, it appears that every land-dwelling animal species larger than a domestic cat was <a href="https://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/06/20/mammals_nearly_wiped_out_in_asteroid_impact/">ultimately doomed</a>, unless it could swim, burrow or fly.</p>
<p>Even these abilities did not guarantee survival: they merely gave creatures a slightly better chance. For instance, pterosaurs could fly well, but still went extinct, along with most bird species. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308542/original/file-20200105-11891-166jj79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308542/original/file-20200105-11891-166jj79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308542/original/file-20200105-11891-166jj79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=880&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308542/original/file-20200105-11891-166jj79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=880&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308542/original/file-20200105-11891-166jj79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=880&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308542/original/file-20200105-11891-166jj79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1106&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308542/original/file-20200105-11891-166jj79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1106&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308542/original/file-20200105-11891-166jj79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1106&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Deforestation in ancient wildfires spared some ground-foraging birds but obliterated tree-dwelling, perching birds.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Michael Lee</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/05/dinosaurs-asteroids-goodbye-birds-trees/561110/">Recent research</a> suggests perching birds –- which need forests to live in –- were essentially eliminated when most of the world’s trees disappeared. The sole avian survivors were ground-foragers similar to chickens and rails, and it took millions of years for new perching birds (modern songbirds) to re-evolve.</p>
<p>By exterminating many species, and doing so highly selectively, the global wildfires (alongside other effects of the asteroid impact) totally restructured Earth’s biosphere.</p>
<h2>What about the current fires?</h2>
<p>The recent rampant bushfires are regional rather than global (e.g. Australia, the Amazon, Canada, California, Siberia), and are burning less land cover than the worst-case dinosaur firestorm scenario. </p>
<p>Yet their long-term extinction effects could also be severe, because our planet has already <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/deforestation/">lost half its forest cover</a> due to humans. These fires are hitting shrunken biodiversity refuges that are simultaneously threatened by an anthropogenic cocktail of pollution, invasive feral species, and climate change.</p>
<p>The ancient catastrophe provides strong evidence, written in stone, that firestorms can contribute to extensive extinctions, even among large vertebrates with large distributions and high mobility. </p>
<p>It also shows certain types of organisms will bear the brunt of the impact. Entire guilds of similar species could vanish, severely impacting ecosystem function. </p>
<p>It took millions of years of regeneration and evolution for our planet’s biosphere to recover from the nuclear winter and wildfires of the asteroid impact. When a new world order eventually emerged, it was radically different: the age of dinosaurs gave way to the age of mammals and birds.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129344/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Lee receives funding from The Australian Research Council (ARC).</span></em></p>The asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs sparked global firestorms. On land, only creatures that could evade fire survivedMike Lee, Professor in Evolutionary Biology (jointly appointed with South Australian Museum), Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1293252020-01-06T03:19:01Z2020-01-06T03:19:01ZDisaster recovery from Australia’s fires will be a marathon, not a sprint<p>After reporting on the deadly 2011 Queensland flash flood disaster, I spent a year documenting <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/archived/360/the-day-that-changed-grantham/3584672">accounts</a> of <a href="https://www.uqp.uq.edu.au/Book.aspx/1418/The%20Torrent-%20A%20True%20Story%20of%20Heroism%20and%20Survival%202nd%20Edition">heroic rescues, tragic deaths and extraordinary survival</a>.</p>
<p>Five years later, I returned for a follow-up <a href="https://ojs.aut.ac.nz/pacific-journalism-review/article/view/402">study</a>. I found some survivors had recovered, but many were far worse off.</p>
<p>This research suggests there is a long road ahead for survivors of the current bushfire crisis. However, there are key lessons to be learned. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-bushfires-are-horrendous-but-expect-cyclones-floods-and-heatwaves-too-129328">The bushfires are horrendous, but expect cyclones, floods and heatwaves too</a>
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<h2>The initial response</h2>
<p>At the time of the 2011 Queensland flood crisis, the Australian Defence Force arrived to help. Community spirit was high. Australia and the world donated very generously. </p>
<p>But after the first few weeks, initial assistance gave way to often intractable difficulties with housing, insurance claims, job losses and chronic physical and mental health conditions.</p>
<p>Blanket media coverage of the crisis soon dwindled. And for many people, there simply was no return to “normal” life.</p>
<h2>Five years on</h2>
<p>Five years after the event, many still struggled. The journey was far longer and more difficult for people who:</p>
<ul>
<li>lost family members during or after the disaster</li>
<li>were traumatised by a near-death experience</li>
<li>could no longer work in their old job</li>
<li>had significant health problems</li>
<li>had insurance claims that were slow, difficult or rejected. </li>
</ul>
<p>Those people who were most able to recover were people who:</p>
<ul>
<li>lost possessions but who were not traumatised by the disaster </li>
<li>remained healthy and had insurance with companies that promptly paid their claims </li>
<li>were able to resume work</li>
<li>were able to repair or replace their homes and return to a relatively normal life within a few months to a year.</li>
</ul>
<p>After five years, some people realised they would never recover. Some said they would have preferred to die than endure the five years post-flood. </p>
<p>Several survivors spoke of the “near miss” they had with death. For some, it was an incentive to live every day with renewed gusto. For others, the near miss reinforced the fragility of life and left them feeling more vulnerable. </p>
<h2>Death and near-death experiences</h2>
<p>Thirty-three of the rescuers and survivors in the disaster experienced a near-death experience. Five years on, some of them had still not attended any counselling and reported memories of near-death experiences playing out in their minds in an endless video-loop. Some became hermits, afraid to leave home.</p>
<p>One of the rescuers told me it took five years to even acknowledge he had risked his life.</p>
<p>One mother whose children were at risk said: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Life as you know it changed on that day. You know that one second your life is normal and then how quickly things can change. I scan all the time. I scan rooms for the exit. I scan terrain in case something happens […] which is the quickest way to escape?</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Lasting psychological impacts</h2>
<p>Two thirds of the people interviewed still had ongoing traumatic memories five years after the disaster – including seeing or hearing the sounds of the disaster, smelling the fetid aromas associated with floods or feeling anxious at the sound of helicopters. </p>
<p>For some, the trauma triggers occurred only in the flood zone, while for others it could be anywhere, whcih meant moving away offered no respite.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-hard-to-breathe-and-you-cant-think-clearly-if-you-defend-your-home-against-a-bushfire-be-mentally-prepared-127019">It's hard to breathe and you can't think clearly – if you defend your home against a bushfire, be mentally prepared</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>In the small town of Grantham, where 13 people died, witnesses told an inquiry into the disaster that counsellors <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-07/medical-help-arrived-days-after-grantham-flood-inquiry-hears/6682154?&section=latest&date=(none)">changed from week to week</a> (meaning survivors had to retell their stories again to a new counsellor). The service then stopped because townspeople didn’t want to see them. </p>
<h2>Return or move away?</h2>
<p>Many people no longer felt safe at home. People who had to rebuild as property values fell and insurance premiums skyrocketed – some up to A$34,000/year – could not afford to insure their house. They feared a total loss of their homes next time.</p>
<p>Some people who never returned to affected towns fared better psychologically than those who did go back. </p>
<p>Some people returned initially, rebuilt, but then sold up and left again. Some told me they would not be alive unless they got out when they did.</p>
<p>Whole communities all but disappeared as almost the entire population left town.</p>
<h2>Natural disasters are financial disasters</h2>
<p>After a natural disaster, mortgages still need to be paid, even on houses that are uninhabitable. Accommodation costs mount. The risk of homelessness and bankruptcy increases and relationships can be put under enormous stress.</p>
<p>Property values in the towns and districts affected by the 2011 floods fell dramatically and immediately, meaning some people couldn’t sell and move away.</p>
<p>Several survivors were unable to return to their old jobs because their workplace had been destroyed or because it was too traumatic.</p>
<p>One who stayed to rebuild his business experienced another disaster two years later and lost his service station a second time. He rebuilt again only to have his business destroyed a third time the following year.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/making-sense-of-australias-bushfire-crisis-means-asking-hard-questions-and-listening-to-the-answers-129302">Making sense of Australia's bushfire crisis means asking hard questions – and listening to the answers</a>
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<hr>
<p>People who are injured at work in Queensland are eligible to claim on WorkCover, a government funded program that assists workers to recover and return to work. People injured in disasters, however are not eligible for the same type of assistance. </p>
<p>Many people relied on charities for food, clothes and shelter for months to years after the flood. Some refused or resisted charitable help or government help. </p>
<p>Some older people reported becoming dependent on their adult children for the first time. </p>
<h2>What is needed</h2>
<p>The research suggests several possible ways to help natural disaster survivors including, but not limited to:</p>
<ul>
<li>better access to publicly funded psychological care beyond the current 10 visits allowable under the current Medicare system, especially for people who have lost family or their home or business</li>
<li>free and well coordinated government-funded counselling in disaster zones</li>
<li>income support and emergency <a href="http://tatsuki-lab.doshisha.ac.jp/%7Estatsuki/papers/JDR/JDR2007/Tatsuki(2007).pdf">housing</a> for people who have lost homes</li>
<li>government-funded funerals for those who die in a natural disaster</li>
<li>provision of short-term retraining for those who cannot return to their old jobs</li>
<li>the creation of a “DisasterCover” system to support volunteer rescuers or firefighters with access to counselling, income support and job security – in the same way that WorkCover might support professional firefighters. A legislated scheme would mean survivors are not at the whim of ad hoc emergency government funding or relying on public appeals</li>
<li>such a scheme could cover emergency medical, rehabilitation and wage costs and then claim them back, where possible, from the claimant’s private medical and income protection insurance</li>
<li>improved land planning around where it is safe to build.</li>
</ul>
<p>All of this sounds expensive. But the cost of not learning these lessons may be greater in the long run. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-bushfire-and-holiday-seasons-converge-it-may-be-time-to-say-goodbye-to-the-typical-australian-summer-holiday-129337">As bushfire and holiday seasons converge, it may be time to say goodbye to the typical Australian summer holiday</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129325/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Gearing received funding from the Adrian Scott Rural Journalism Scholarship, Queensland University of Technology, for this research and from the State Library of Queensland to create a digital archive of the 2011 disaster and a 2016 follow-up study Five Years On. </span></em></p>Research on other natural disasters tells us there’s a long road ahead for survivors of the current bushfire crisis – but there are some key lessons.Amanda Gearing, Journalist, author, broadcaster, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1293022020-01-05T18:48:22Z2020-01-05T18:48:22ZMaking sense of Australia’s bushfire crisis means asking hard questions – and listening to the answers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308510/original/file-20200105-11904-tr74t9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C0%2C4755%2C3182&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">When the immediate threat of this bushfire crisis passes, many questions will remain. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Bushfires plunder lives and landscapes in myriad ways, but they often start the same way. A bright morning suddenly turns to night. Ash flutters down from the sky, propelled ahead of the roaring fire front. An awful red glow slinks over the horizon.</p>
<p>When I awoke in the NSW south coast town of Bermagui on the last day of 2019, I should have twigged straight away. At 8am the sky was a gruesome orange-black, the surrounding bush freakishly quiet. Our mobile phones had no signal. Outside, my car was coated in soot.</p>
<p>We knew fires were burning more than 100km up the coast at Batemans Bay, but Bermagui had seemed a safe distance away. Suddenly, it wasn’t.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1211753455460597760"}"></div></p>
<p>Fire was bearing down on the seaside town, <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6561329/residents-evacuate-to-beaches-as-south-coast-fires-pose-serious-threat/">burning so fiercely</a> it created its own thunderstorm. Residents evacuated to the beach after emergency text messages at 4am, but with our phone service down we’d slept on, oblivious. When my partner and I woke and worked out what was happening, we too bundled our bewildered young son into the car and fled.</p>
<p>Of course amid the devastation wrought this fire season, a disrupted holiday is nothing to complain about. Bushfires have decimated huge swathes of Australia this fire season, taking with them, at the time of writing, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/04/australia-fires-death-toll-rises-and-six-people-missing-as-pm-calls-in-military">23 lives</a> and more than 1500 homes. </p>
<p>Thousands of holidaymakers in NSW and Victoria were <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/families-stuck-in-mallacoota-after-navy-ships-discouraged-children-under-5-20200104-p53otm.html">stranded for days</a> in towns with <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/australias-apocalyptic-bushfire-towns-go-into-panic-stations-as-supermarket-shelves-are-cleared-petrol-stations-run-dry-water-supplies-are-contaminated-and-communities-struggle-without-power/ar-BBYwcd7">dwindling food</a> and <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6564632/fuel-shortages-slowing-bushfire-evacuees/?cs=14231">fuel </a>supplies. Some were forced to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/01/malua-bay-fire-survivors-tell-how-1000-people-lived-through-a-night-of-flames-on-nsw-beach">shelter on beaches</a>, dodging embers and watching flames creep ever closer. And we cannot forget the animals – <a href="https://sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/01/03/a-statement-about-the-480-million-animals-killed-in-nsw-bushfire.html">millions have been killed</a> this fire season, or will soon die from lack of food or shelter.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308511/original/file-20200105-11951-1ss7i8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308511/original/file-20200105-11951-1ss7i8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308511/original/file-20200105-11951-1ss7i8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308511/original/file-20200105-11951-1ss7i8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308511/original/file-20200105-11951-1ss7i8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308511/original/file-20200105-11951-1ss7i8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308511/original/file-20200105-11951-1ss7i8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Firefighters battle flames encroaching on properties near Termeil on the NSW south coast, where lives and homes have been lost.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-bushfire-and-holiday-seasons-converge-it-may-be-time-to-say-goodbye-to-the-typical-australian-summer-holiday-129337">As bushfire and holiday seasons converge, it may be time to say goodbye to the typical Australian summer holiday</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>With all roads out of Bermagui closed, we spent New Year’s Eve at a local club hastily converted into an evacuation centre. Many evacuees were from the nearby fire-hit town of Cobargo. Some knew the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-31/father-and-son-patrick-and-robert-salway-die-in-cobargo-bushfire/11835194">father and son</a> who died after staying to defend their property. Many would presumably soon discover their own homes were gone. They watched, hands over their mouths, as the club’s giant plasma screens beamed images of their once-charming town, now a jumble of rubble and corrugated iron.</p>
<p>We lay our doonas down between rows of poker machines and lined up for dinner with hundreds of other evacuees. Food supplies in the town had already run short – the shelves of the local Woolworths were all but empty. To feed the hordes, volunteers began rationing dinner portions to just half a sausage and a slice of bread. They had no idea where tomorrow’s meals would come from.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308514/original/file-20200105-11946-on1wvv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308514/original/file-20200105-11946-on1wvv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308514/original/file-20200105-11946-on1wvv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308514/original/file-20200105-11946-on1wvv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308514/original/file-20200105-11946-on1wvv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308514/original/file-20200105-11946-on1wvv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308514/original/file-20200105-11946-on1wvv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Empty shelves at Woolworths’ Bermagui on the morning of December 31, after residents were evacuated.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nicole Hasham</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>All this raises inevitable questions. To what extent is climate change driving these fires, and how much of that is Australia’s fault? Do we need a permanent, paid rural fire-fighting force to deal with this “new normal”? Are our fuel, food and communications systems resilient enough to cope with these disasters? And how do we deal with the deep anxiety these fires provoke, on both a personal and societal level?</p>
<p>Over the coming days and weeks, The Conversation will examine the tough issues emerging from this crisis. Our authors, experts in the field, will cut through the political spin and information barrage to help you understand this national disaster, and what it means for our future. </p>
<p>Today, the University of Tasmania’s David Bowman examines whether it’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-bushfire-and-holiday-seasons-converge-it-may-be-time-to-say-goodbye-to-the-typical-australian-summer-holiday-129337">time to ditch the traditional summer holiday</a>, when thousands of people head to bushy areas in peak bushfire season. And while the fires absorb our attention, Monash University’s Neville Nicholls <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-bushfires-are-horrendous-but-expect-cyclones-floods-and-heatwaves-too-129328">reminds us</a> that cyclones, floods and heatwaves are also likely this summer. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308512/original/file-20200105-11929-1o23zqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308512/original/file-20200105-11929-1o23zqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308512/original/file-20200105-11929-1o23zqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308512/original/file-20200105-11929-1o23zqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308512/original/file-20200105-11929-1o23zqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308512/original/file-20200105-11929-1o23zqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308512/original/file-20200105-11929-1o23zqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The aftermath of fires at Cobargo, near Bermagui, where buildings were destroyed and two men died.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sean Davey</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On New Year’s Day, the wind having blown the fires away from Bermagui, officials opened a road out. They warned us to leave before conditions changed again. We had just under half a tank of diesel, and neither Bermagui nor the next town, Tarthra, had supplies. We drove on. No diesel at Bega either, until a local told us of a truck station on the outskirts of town where we filled up.</p>
<p>The trip home was slow and smoky, and phone reception patchy. We tried to buy a paper map in case of detours, but no service stations stocked them. It struck me how vulnerable we are to technology and transport systems that can so easily fail us.</p>
<p>Our three-year-old son grasped little of what was happening. I suggested a game of I-Spy, but it was soon abandoned – the smoke haze meant there was nothing much to see. We drove through blackened landscapes where sheep wandered paddocks with the wool burnt off their backs. My son, sensing the mood, asked why his dad and I were so quiet.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308515/original/file-20200105-11900-15npdpw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308515/original/file-20200105-11900-15npdpw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308515/original/file-20200105-11900-15npdpw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308515/original/file-20200105-11900-15npdpw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308515/original/file-20200105-11900-15npdpw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308515/original/file-20200105-11900-15npdpw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308515/original/file-20200105-11900-15npdpw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Smoke haze in Canberra from the South Coast bushfires has pushed air quality to extremely hazardous levels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lucas Coch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the days after we arrived back in Canberra, air quality was more than <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6562383/air-quality-in-parts-of-canberra-20-times-above-hazardous-level/">20 times above hazardous levels.</a>
Shops and swimming pools were closed, and mail deliveries were cancelled. A woman reportedly died from respiratory distress after exiting a plane to a tarmac filled with smoke. Babies were <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/ginarushton/baby-delivery-canberra-bushfire-smoke">born into smoke-filled hospital theatres</a>; their parents despaired at what the future holds.</p>
<p>When the immediate threat of these fires has passed, many bigger questions will remain. The Conversation will continue to bring you the responsible, evidence-based journalism you need to be properly informed. Thank you for your continued support.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-monitor-the-bushfires-raging-across-australia-129298">How to monitor the bushfires raging across Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129302/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
We escaped through blackened landscapes where sheep wandered paddocks with the wool burnt off their backs. My three-year-old son, sensing the mood, asked why his dad and I were so quiet.Nicole Hasham, Energy + Environment EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1293282020-01-05T02:33:34Z2020-01-05T02:33:34ZThe bushfires are horrendous, but expect cyclones, floods and heatwaves too<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308480/original/file-20200104-11924-8aov44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=35%2C11%2C3942%2C2683&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Bushfires are not the only weather and climate events set to ravage Australia in coming months.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dave Hunt/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Public attention on the disastrous bushfire crisis in Australia will rightly continue for weeks to come. But as we direct resources to coping and recovery, we should not forget other weather and climate challenges looming this summer.</p>
<p>The peak time for heatwaves in southern Australia has not yet arrived. Many parts of Australia can expect heavy rains and flooding. And northern Australia’s cyclone season is just gearing up. </p>
<p>The events will stretch the ability of emergency services and the broader community to cope. The best way to prepare for these events is to keep an eye on Bureau of Meteorology forecasts.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308481/original/file-20200104-11939-1462f70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308481/original/file-20200104-11939-1462f70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308481/original/file-20200104-11939-1462f70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308481/original/file-20200104-11939-1462f70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308481/original/file-20200104-11939-1462f70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308481/original/file-20200104-11939-1462f70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308481/original/file-20200104-11939-1462f70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fires and other extreme events will test emergency services this summer.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren Pateman/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Let it rain</h2>
<p>2019 was Australia’s <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/#tabs=Tracker&tracker=timeseries&tQ=graph%3Drain%26area%3Daus%26season%3D0112%26ave_yr%3D0">driest year</a> on record. Since early winter the Bureau of Meteorology has correctly <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/archive/20191219-outlook.shtml">predicted</a> the development of these widespread dry conditions. </p>
<p>But relief may be coming. The latest bureau outlooks suggest more normal summer conditions from <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary/">February to April</a>. If it eventuates, this would include more rain.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-monitor-the-bushfires-raging-across-australia-129298">How to monitor the bushfires raging across Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The arrival of drought-breaking rains is notoriously hard to predict – in the past, they have come any time between January and May. <a href="https://theconversation.com/40-years-ago-scientists-predicted-climate-change-and-hey-they-were-right-120502">Global warming</a> is also complicating seasonal climate predictions.</p>
<p>We all hope the rain arrives sooner rather than later, and eases the fire situation. But rain will bring other risks. </p>
<p>Continental-scale droughts such as that experienced over the past few years are often broken by widespread heavy rains, leading to an increased risk of flooding including potentially lethal flash floods. The decade-long Millenium drought that ended in 2009 was followed by two extremely wet years with serious flooding.</p>
<p>A similar situation was seen in Indonesia in recent days when very heavy rains after a prolonged drought produced <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-50967356/indonesia-floods-torrential-rain-floods-jakarta">disastrous floods</a> and landslides.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308482/original/file-20200104-11914-14re8z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308482/original/file-20200104-11914-14re8z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308482/original/file-20200104-11914-14re8z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308482/original/file-20200104-11914-14re8z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308482/original/file-20200104-11914-14re8z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308482/original/file-20200104-11914-14re8z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308482/original/file-20200104-11914-14re8z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Indonesian rescuers searching for missing people after a landslide in West Java, Indonesia, triggered by heavy rain.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The flood risk is exacerbated by the bare soil and lack of vegetation caused by drought, and by bushfires that destroy forest and grassland. </p>
<p>Australia’s north may be particularly hard hit. The onset of the tropical wet season has been very much delayed, as <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall-onset/archive/20190815.archive.shtml">the bureau predicted</a>. Over the last three months, some parts of the Australian tropics had their lowest ever October-December rainfall. But there are some suggestions <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/">widespread rain</a> may be on its way. </p>
<p>Further south, drought-breaking rains can also be heavy and widespread, leading to increased flood risk. So even when the drought breaks and rains quell the fires, there will likely still be bouts of extreme weather, and high demand for emergency services.</p>
<h2>Cyclones and heatwaves</h2>
<p>The tropical cyclone season has been much delayed, <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/">as predicted by the bureau</a>, although there are now signs of <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/nwcyclone.shtml">cyclonic activity</a> in the near future. </p>
<p>Cyclones often bring welcome rains to drought-affected communities. But we should not overlook the serious damage these systems may bring such as coastal flooding and wind damage - again requiring intervention from emergency services.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/i-can-still-picture-the-faces-black-saturday-firefighters-want-you-to-listen-to-them-not-call-them-heroes-128632">'I can still picture the faces': Black Saturday firefighters want you to listen to them, not call them 'heroes'</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>And we are still a month away from the riskiest time for heatwaves in southern Australia. We’ve already had some severe heatwaves this summer. However they usually peak in the middle and end of summer, so the worst may be yet to come.</p>
<p>Lives have undoubtedly been saved this summer by improved forecasting of high temperatures and better dissemination of heatwave information by state and local governments. But after an already devastating early summer of fires and heat, warning fatigue may set in amongst both warning providers and the public. We must ensure heatwave warnings continue to be disseminated to populations at risk, and are acted on. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308483/original/file-20200104-11924-1dpzesd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308483/original/file-20200104-11924-1dpzesd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308483/original/file-20200104-11924-1dpzesd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308483/original/file-20200104-11924-1dpzesd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308483/original/file-20200104-11924-1dpzesd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308483/original/file-20200104-11924-1dpzesd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308483/original/file-20200104-11924-1dpzesd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Shop staff clean up storm waters after Cyclone Debbie hit iQueensland in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Be thankful for weather forecasters</h2>
<p>The recent experience of farmers, fire fighters, water resource managers and communities illustrate the value of the service provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-change-in-the-weather-no-one-predicted-forecasters-are-getting-it-right-752">Greatly improved</a> weather and climate forecasting developed over the past few decades means communities can plan for and deal with our highly variable weather and climate far better than in the past. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-only-october-so-whats-with-all-these-bushfires-new-research-explains-it-124091">It's only October, so what's with all these bushfires? New research explains it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Recent drought, fires and heatwaves – <a href="https://theconversation.com/record-heatwaves-not-just-a-lot-of-hot-air-1335">exacerbated by global warming</a> – have been devastating. But imagine if we only had the limited weather forecast capabilities of even a few decades ago, without today’s high-speed computers to run weather forecast models, and satellites to feed in enormous amounts of data. How much worse would the impacts have been?</p>
<p>These forecasts have allowed heat alerts to be disseminated to vulnerable communities. Detailed information on weather conducive to fire spread has helped fire agencies provide more targeted warnings and direct resources appropriately.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308484/original/file-20200104-11904-10fedcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308484/original/file-20200104-11904-10fedcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308484/original/file-20200104-11904-10fedcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308484/original/file-20200104-11904-10fedcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308484/original/file-20200104-11904-10fedcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308484/original/file-20200104-11904-10fedcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308484/original/file-20200104-11904-10fedcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An air tanker makes a pass to drop fire retardant on a bushfire in North Nowra, NSW, as fires spread rapidly.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Never before have weather forecasts been so readily available to the public. Here are ways you can use them to reduce risks to life and property during an extreme event:</p>
<ul>
<li>Listen to <a href="http://reception.abc.net.au">ABC local radio</a> for emergency updates and detailed Bureau of Meteorology forecasts</li>
<li>load your state fire service emergency app onto your phone and check it regularly. Or check out the information online, such as at the NSW Rural Fire Service’s <a href="https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/fires-near-me">Fires Near Me</a> website</li>
<li>check the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/fire-danger-ratings.shtml">bureau’s website</a> for climate and weather forecasts</li>
<li>download a short-range rainfall forecast app such as <a href="https://www.rainparrot.com">Rain Parrot</a> onto your phone. These apps use the bureau’s radar data to make short-range forecasts of rainfall for your location, and notify you if rain is coming.</li>
</ul>
<p>Global warming is already lengthening the fire season and making heatwaves more intense, more frequent, and longer. It is also increasing the likelihood of heavy rains, and making droughts worse. </p>
<p>We must keep adapting to these changing threats, and further improve our ability to forecast them. And the community must stay aware of the many weather and climate extremes that threaten lives and property.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129328/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neville Nicholls has received funding in the past from the ARC to undertake research on bushfires, heat waves, drought, and other weather and climate extremes. He is a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Science, the Australian Meteorological & Oceanographic Society, and the American Geophysical Union. He was a climate researcher in the Bureau of Meteorology for 35 years.</span></em></p>The peak time for heatwaves in southern Australia has not yet arrived. Many parts of Australia can expect heavy rains and flooding. And northern Australia’s cyclone season is just gearing up.Neville Nicholls, Professor emeritus, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1293372020-01-05T02:08:15Z2020-01-05T02:08:15ZAs bushfire and holiday seasons converge, it may be time to say goodbye to the typical Australian summer holiday<p>For 40 years I have studied bushfires in Australia. It has been my life’s work to try to better understand Australian landscapes and the interaction of humans and landscape fire. </p>
<p>As we contemplate a future where catastrophes like the one currently engulfing Australia become increasingly frequent, there’s an idea to which I keep returning: maybe it’s time to say goodbye to the typical summer Australian holiday. </p>
<p>Perhaps it’s time to rearrange Australian calendar and reschedule the peak holiday period to March or April, instead of December and January. </p>
<p>It’s easy to dismiss this idea as stupid but that’s the nature of adaptation. Things that once seemed absurd will now need serious consideration. </p>
<p>What’s truly absurd is the business-as-usual approach that sees thousands of holidaymakers heading directly into forests and national parks right in the middle of peak bushfire season.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-living-with-fire-and-facing-our-fears-128093">Friday essay: living with fire and facing our fears</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>All of the indications are that we are galloping into changing fire regimes. We can certainly see that with what’s occurred in the Australian alps (the snow country in southeastern Australia, near Mount Kosciuszko). There were incredibly intense fires there <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/fires-fanned-by-worst-imaginable-conditions-20030131-gdg702.html">around the early 2000s</a> and now those areas are re-burning. </p>
<p>To me, as a fire researcher, that’s an astonishing thought. </p>
<p>Yes, there have been very large fires in the past but they weren’t followed up with yet more very large fires a mere 15 years later. Normally, you’d be <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.12433">expecting</a> a gap of <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/geb.12484">50 or 100 years</a>. So the ecology is telling us that we are seeing the intervals between the fires shrinking. That is a really big warning sign.</p>
<p>And this increasingly frequent fire activity is completely consistent with what climate modelling was <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF13126">suggesting</a>. The whole system is moving to a world that is hotter, drier, and with more frequent fire activity. It’s what was <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/adaptation/publications/fire-regimes">forecast</a> and it’s what is now happening.</p>
<h2>Big holidays in peak fire season</h2>
<p>One of the great exacerbating factors of this crisis is the fact that it’s occurring in a holiday period. It makes things incredibly difficult for emergency management. The fact is that it would be a lot easier for firefighters to focus on stemming fires if they didn’t also have to manage mass evacuations, and deal with populations that are dispersed and far from home. </p>
<p>Scheduling the major Australian holiday at the same time as bushfire season also makes things extremely difficult for the enterprises that depend on the holiday trade. You need certainty to run a business and timing the major annual Australian holiday period with bushfire season strips certainty away from these business owners. </p>
<p>It’s also really terrible for holidaymakers themselves. People are in desperate need of a break, to spend time with family. Instead of returning to work rested and re-energised, many will be stressed, tired, perhaps even traumatised. (And let’s not forget the firefighters themselves, also denied a break with friends and family over the holidays).</p>
<p>And having the major holiday right in the middle of bushfire season also means that many people are denied a chance to experience national parks, as authorities close them off to reduce risk. </p>
<h2>Adaptation means change, and change is hard</h2>
<p>The old idea was that we can head off the crisis by reducing our emissions through decarbonisation. We had an opportunity to do that and we didn’t take it. We still have to decarbonise but now we also have to adapt. </p>
<p>And the sort of adaptation needed is not just about infrastructure, it’s also about the way we shape our lifestyle, our culture and traditions. </p>
<p>Climate change adaptation will nearly always be met with political, social and cultural resistance. It is not easy. But something like completely rearranging the Australian calendar around increased risks – it’s not even the biggest change required of us. </p>
<p>Some of the other things we are going to have to do will at first seem absurd, will be unbelievably painful economically and will require major adjustments. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-monitor-the-bushfires-raging-across-australia-129298">How to monitor the bushfires raging across Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>There’s going to need to be a systematic change in behaviour and lifestyle as we adapt. </p>
<p>This crisis occurring in peak holiday time is highlighting the fact that the assumptions of normality we have got are being challenged by climate change. </p>
<p>It is confronting, but adaptation also brings with it great benefits – less loss of life, greater certainty and opportunity for businesses and holidaymakers, and smoother handling of fire crises as they emerge. </p>
<p>We need to put some serious thought into what future life will be like under climate change. Perhaps shifting peak holiday season to the cooler months is the place to start.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129337/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Bowman receives funding to study fire ecology and management from the Australian Research Council (ARC) , the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Bushfire and Natural Hazard CRC, and the Tasmanian Government Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and the Environment.</span></em></p>Sending holidaymakers directly into forests and national parks right in the middle of peak bushfire season is madness.David Bowman, Professor of Pyrogeography and Fire Science, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1292982020-01-03T10:23:38Z2020-01-03T10:23:38ZHow to monitor the bushfires raging across Australia<p>As I write this, fires are consuming huge swathes of Australia and conditions are expected to worsen. The situation is attracting global interest, and reporting has been extensive. </p>
<p>But it isn’t always easy to find reliable information on how the situation is developing in specific areas that are home to your family and friends.</p>
<p>The following short guide draws on my experience covering bushfires as a reporter and my academic research. It may not be exhaustive but is intended to help Australians and their overseas family and friends source useful information and monitor the movement of fire fronts in real time.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Editors note: The Conversation will add to this list as the situation develops, and publish extensive bushfire analysis – on what’s happened, why and what’s next for Australia – in the coming days and weeks. <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/newsletters">Sign up to our daily newsletter</a> to stay informed.</em></p>
<hr>
<h2>Australia-wide</h2>
<p>The Geoscience Australia <a href="https://sentinel.ga.gov.au/#/">Digital Earth Australia Hotspots</a> shows the national picture. (As noted <a href="https://twitter.com/EarthObserved/status/1213062431666126848">here</a>, it is being upgraded to the new and improved <a href="https://hotspots.dea.ga.gov.au/">Digital Earth Australia Hotspots</a> site.)</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308400/original/file-20200103-11891-13vdve5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308400/original/file-20200103-11891-13vdve5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308400/original/file-20200103-11891-13vdve5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308400/original/file-20200103-11891-13vdve5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308400/original/file-20200103-11891-13vdve5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308400/original/file-20200103-11891-13vdve5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308400/original/file-20200103-11891-13vdve5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308400/original/file-20200103-11891-13vdve5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The national fire situation as of January 3, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://sentinel.ga.gov.au/#/">Geoscience Australia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The latest fire weather warnings are also available on the Bureau’s <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings/?ref=ftr">National Warnings</a> page.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-seeing-the-news-up-close-one-devastating-post-at-a-time-128774">Friday essay: seeing the news up close, one devastating post at a time</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Fast-breaking news and emergency broadcasts</h2>
<p>The latest warnings and news coverage are available for each state via the ABC emergency broadcaster in each state and territory. For current ABC emergency alerts, warnings and news coverage see: </p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/emergency/state/nsw/">ABC New South Wales and ACT</a> ; </li>
<li><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/emergency/state/vic/">ABC Victoria</a>; </li>
<li><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/emergency/state/qld/">ABC Queensland</a>; </li>
<li><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/emergency/state/wa/">ABC Western Australia</a>; </li>
<li><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/emergency/state/sa/">ABC South Australia</a> and </li>
<li><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/emergency/state/tas/">ABC Tasmania</a>.</li>
</ul>
<p>In fast-moving and emergency fire situations, ABC Radio posts directly to its Facebook page <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ABCemergency/">Bushfire Recovery Relief</a> page.</p>
<p>For fast-breaking news, follow the Twitter hashtags: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ausfires?src=hash">#ausfires</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/bushfiresaustralia?src=hash">#bushfiresaustralia</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/nswfires?src=hash">#nswfires</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/vicfires?src=hash">#vicfires</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/tasfires?src=hash">#tasfires</a>, and <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/wafires?src=hash">#wafires</a>.</p>
<h2>South eastern Australia</h2>
<p>As strong south-easterly winds arrive during Friday night and on Saturday, it will be too dangerous in some areas for ground crews to confront fast-moving fire-fronts.</p>
<p>Evacuation orders were issued early on Friday for <a href="http://emergency.vic.gov.au/respond/">East Gippsland areas</a> west of Kosciuszko National Park, south west of Canberra, in addition to evacuation orders issued for three other areas of south east NSW.</p>
<p>A fleet of aircraft monitors the movement of active fire fronts overnight using infrared cameras. During the day, waterbombing helicopters and fixed wing aircraft drop water and fire retardants to protect towns and houses where possible.</p>
<p>Aircraft movements over fire zones can be tracked in real time using <a href="https://www.flightradar24.com/-27.47,153.02/8">Flightradar24</a>.</p>
<p>Residents and visitors to south eastern Australia were asked to leave before the most severe weather conditions arrive on Saturday, with temperatures to soar to the mid to high 40s and for strong and changeable winds.</p>
<h2>Victoria</h2>
<p>In Victoria, a <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/victorian-government-declares-a-state-of-disaster/">State of Disaster</a> has been declared as dozens of new, active fires are burning across hundreds of square kilometres of inaccessible rugged and mountainous national parkland.</p>
<p>Residents of towns in East Gippsland were <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/victorian-government-declares-a-state-of-disaster/">ordered to evacuate</a> this week ahead of dangerous fire conditions.</p>
<p>To monitor active fires in Victoria, see <a href="https://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/home">Country Fire Authority</a> notifications, download the <a href="https://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/plan-prepare/vicemergency-app">VicEmergency App</a> (and follow the <a href="https://twitter.com/vicemergency">VicEmergency Twitter account</a>) and listen to the emergency broadcaster, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/emergency/">ABC Radio</a>.</p>
<p>In Gippsland, listen to the local <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radio/gippsland/live/">ABC Gippsland</a> station and connect with the local Gippsland community for the latest updates at <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ABCGippsland/">ABC Gippsland Facebook page</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hunter-hunted-when-the-world-catches-on-fire-how-do-predators-respond-126280">Hunter, hunted: when the world catches on fire, how do predators respond?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>New South Wales</h2>
<p>To monitor the whole NSW fire situation, see the <a href="https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/fires-near-me">NSW Fires Near Me</a> website and app.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308405/original/file-20200103-11909-stjlo0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308405/original/file-20200103-11909-stjlo0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308405/original/file-20200103-11909-stjlo0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=164&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308405/original/file-20200103-11909-stjlo0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=164&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308405/original/file-20200103-11909-stjlo0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=164&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308405/original/file-20200103-11909-stjlo0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=206&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308405/original/file-20200103-11909-stjlo0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=206&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308405/original/file-20200103-11909-stjlo0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=206&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fires Near Me map icons.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/fires-near-me">NSW RURAL FIRE SERVICE</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>People in several parts of NSW have been advised to leave now. In some areas, people have been told it is already too late to leave. Key areas include:</p>
<ul>
<li>the <a href="https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/146384/A3-tourist-leave-zones-South-Coast-flyer.pdf">south coast of NSW</a> from Bateman’s Bay to Wonboyn near the Victorian border. Thousands of people trapped in the danger zone since New Year’s Eve are leaving by car or boat ahead of the worsening conditions;</li>
<li>the <a href="https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/147173/A3-leave-zones-Batlow-flyer.pdf">Batlow/Wondalga</a> area south west of the national capital, Canberra. Motorists have been told it is not safe to enter the area. People leaving were told to travel north towards Wagga Wagga but were later told it is too late to leave;</li>
<li>the <a href="https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/147177/A3-leave-zones-Shoalhaven-flyer.pdf">Shoalhaven area near Sussex Inlet</a>. Firefighters expect extreme conditions worse than those on New Year’s Eve. It is likely that roads will be cut, potentially trapping people on beaches again;</li>
<li>the popular skiing resorts of the <a href="https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/147186/A3-tourist-leave-zones-Snowy-Monaro-flyer.pdf">Snowy Monaro</a>. Evacuations have been ordered from Australia’s highest peak, Mount Kosciusko, in Kosciusko National Park, and the towns of Jindabyne, Berridale and Anglers Reach. Updates are available via the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/MonaroRFS/?__tn__=%2Cd%2CP-R&eid=ARD29w8xF9VJLax4GiZWCos0tbw_uMCXXVVQFYLVihEe3Rxx4Qi-jbCnOT3BJdHW8nP8GmHZbvj9zqgP">Monaro Team Rural Fire Service</a>;</li>
<li>the area of Khancoban and the large area west of the Kosciuszko National Park. Fire authorities warn that communities in this area would not be defendable on Saturday. </li>
</ul>
<p>The situation is rapidly changing so check local information (or stay in touch via the ABC emergency broadcasts) for the most up to date advice.</p>
<h2>Tasmania</h2>
<p>In Tasmania, follow the <a href="http://www.fire.tas.gov.au/Show?pageId=colGMapBushfires">Tasmanian Fire Service</a> website for the latest updates and warnings. To connect with the community in Tasmania, see the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/TasmaniaFireService/">Tasmania Fire Service</a> Facebook page.</p>
<h2>South Australia</h2>
<p>In South Australia follow the South Australian <a href="https://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/site/home.jsp">Country Fire Service</a> for updates. <a href="https://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/site/warnings_and_incidents.jsp">Current fires</a> are burning in the Mount Lofty Ranges, the West Coast and the Riverland districts.</p>
<p>A dangerous fire is burning on Kangaroo Island south of Adelaide. <a href="https://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/site/home/criimson/emergency_warning_message_ravine_issued_03_jan_16160004365.jsp">An emergency warning</a> was issued at 4.15pm Friday asking people to leave and warning the fire may pose a threat to lives directly in the path of the fire.</p>
<h2>Western Australia</h2>
<p>In Western Australia, follow <a href="https://www.emergency.wa.gov.au/">Emergency WA</a>. A total fire ban has been declared in Western Australia but there are no current emergency warnings. There are <a href="https://www.emergency.wa.gov.au/">bushfire advice notifications</a> for several fires burning in Western Australia.</p>
<h2>Queensland</h2>
<p>In Queensland, current bushfires can be monitored on the Queensland Government <a href="https://www.ruralfire.qld.gov.au/map/Pages/default.aspx">Rural Fire Service</a> website. To monitor fire advice, watch and act alerts and emergency alerts see the Current Bushfires page of the <a href="https://www.ruralfire.qld.gov.au/map/Pages/default.aspx">Rural Fire Service</a> website.</p>
<h2>Traffic updates</h2>
<p>Live traffic updates are available at <a href="https://www.livetraffic.com/desktop.html">Live Traffic NSW</a> and via the Live Traffic NSW App.</p>
<p>Motorists can create a free account so they can plan their journey and get updates on traffic hazards if roads along your planned route become impassable.</p>
<h2>Missing people</h2>
<p>People who are leaving home due to the bushfires are asked to register with the Red Cross <a href="https://register.redcross.org.au/">Register. Find. Reunite</a> registration service online or at evacuation centres. Family and friends can use this site to check on their loved ones.</p>
<h2>Connect with communities</h2>
<p>If there’s a key area of interest for you, search for the local fire brigade and community Facebook page.</p>
<p>Communities that are facing severe fire threat include <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/mallacoota/">Mallacoota</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/batlowfirestation/">Batlow</a>; <a href="https://www.facebook.com/nswrfsshoalhaven/">Shoalhaven</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/MonaroRFS/?__tn__=%2Cd%2CP-R&eid=ARD_g5LWPxKtM0yjZ56vshME3Q0Vu6YBvmHVmJwLYMzT3oU3jxv0nzGvFiG-3aoVlkkJzRXk2qfyh3_8">Snowy Monaro</a>.</p>
<h2>How you can help</h2>
<p>Information on how you can help can be found on the NSW Rural Fire Service website <a href="https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/news-and-media/general-news/how-you-can-help">here</a>.</p>
<p><em>UPDATED: This story has been updated to add more info on how to monitor fires, and to reflect changing advice of fire authorities.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129298/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Gearing does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Here’s how Australians and their overseas family and friends can monitor the movement of fire fronts in real time.Amanda Gearing, Journalist, author, broadcaster, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1286332019-12-12T06:31:22Z2019-12-12T06:31:22ZFrom face masks to air purifiers: what actually works to protect us from bushfire smoke?<p>Bushfire smoke has now been blanketing parts of Australia for months. This week the air quality in Sydney reached new lows, reported to be <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-10/sydney-smoke-returns-to-worst-ever-levels/11782892">12 times hazardous levels</a> in some parts of the city on Tuesday. </p>
<p>Beyond being stifling and unpleasant, people are experiencing irritated eyes and breathing difficulties. </p>
<p>Statistics emerging from hospital records show an <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20191113_00.aspx">increase in emergency hospital admissions</a> for a range of diseases from asthma to heart disease and stroke.</p>
<p>We’ll only fully understand the longer term health effects in the weeks and months to come. </p>
<p>When the situation is as bad as it has been in Sydney over the past few days, people stop asking questions about whether air pollution has an impact on health; we know it has. The question on everybody’s mind now is: how can I protect myself and my family?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/now-australian-cities-are-choking-on-smoke-will-we-finally-talk-about-climate-change-128543">Now Australian cities are choking on smoke, will we finally talk about climate change?</a>
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<h2>Does staying indoors help?</h2>
<p>Our natural instinct tells us if the conditions outside are bad, we should seek refuge inside. The indoor environment provides some protection against bushfire smoke and outdoor air pollution in general, but the degree of protection depends on the type of building and importantly, its ventilation. </p>
<p>Buildings such as shopping centres, most modern office buildings and hospitals are equipped with heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which incorporate air filters. </p>
<p>The efficiency of these systems depends on the filter technology and the size of the filtered particles. Smaller particles are generally more difficult to catch and remove, but sophisticated technology can achieve this. It varies, but what we call HEPA (high efficiency particulate air) filters can remove <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12756003">close to 100%</a> of airborne particles.</p>
<p>The particles we’re concerned about in bushfire smoke are ultrafine particles. So these are likely to be removed with HEPA filters, but could get through less sophisticated filters.</p>
<p>Residential homes and apartments are not commonly equipped with HVAC systems. Instead, they’re naturally ventilated, typically by opening the windows. So in residential houses, the indoor concentrations of pollutants are often close to the outdoor concentrations, particularly when the windows are open. </p>
<p>Even if the windows are closed, outdoor pollutants will penetrate indoors if the building is “leaky”, meaning there are cracks the air can get through. This is the case in many old buildings, particularly those built from timber.</p>
<h2>Air purifiers</h2>
<p>One option to improve the quality of indoor air is to use air purifiers. Air purifiers use a system of internal fans to pull the air through a series of filters that remove airborne particles. The air purifier then circulates the purified air back into the room.</p>
<p>But again, the protection offered by purifiers can range from low to very high. As with filtration systems, the level of protection depends on the type of purifier you have. Those equipped with HEPA filters are much more efficient.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-does-poor-air-quality-from-bushfire-smoke-affect-our-health-126835">How does poor air quality from bushfire smoke affect our health?</a>
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<p>Their effectiveness also depends on the volume of air the purifier services, the setting (one room or several interconnected rooms), the ventilation rate (this is measured by how many times the whole volume of air is exchanged per hour) and how it is set to operate (continuous or intermittent).</p>
<p>To put this in context, operating a purifier equipped with a HEPA filter in a typical bedroom would significantly reduce the concentration of air pollution in the bedroom, most likely to a safe level. However, operating a less efficient purifier in a large, open plan house is not likely to help much.</p>
<h2>Face masks</h2>
<p>Many people consider face masks to be the best protection against air pollution. But for the most part, they merely provide <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02938-1">a false sense of security</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1204351332347301888"}"></div></p>
<p>Firstly, a mask is only effective if it’s properly fitted: if the fit is not perfect, most of the small particles, such as those present in the pollution plume from bushfires, will get through. </p>
<p>Secondly, the efficiency of the mask depends on the behaviour of the person wearing it. This includes how long you wear the mask for and how often you take it off. Considering wearing a mask is uncomfortable – particularly when it’s hot – it’s not easy to keep it on all the time.</p>
<p>Industrial style masks are more fitted than simple fabric masks, so can be more effective – but still depend on the wearer’s behaviour. These are not practical to wear all the time.</p>
<p>And if it’s questionable whether a mask will protect an adult, it’s even less likely to protect a small child. A child cannot be expected to tolerate the inconvenience and discomfort of correctly wearing a mask.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ive-always-wondered-why-many-people-in-asian-countries-wear-masks-and-whether-they-work-90178">I've always wondered: why many people in Asian countries wear masks, and whether they work</a>
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<p>In summary, indoors we are protected to some degree from outdoor air pollution, so consider staying inside where possible – particularly if you have an existing health condition. </p>
<p>You might like to wear a mask or invest in an air purifier. These may help to some degree, but are emergency measures that don’t in themselves represent a solution.</p>
<p>While the air quality is likely to improve in Sydney and other affected regions as these fires ease, our changing climate means we can only expect to be in this situation more and more. The only real way forward is to address the climate crisis urgently and decisively.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128633/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lidia Morawska does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With smoke haze this week at its most hazardous level yet, people on Australia’s east coast have been taking precautions to protect their health. But some methods are more effective than others.Lidia Morawska, Professor, Science and Engineering Faculty; Director, International Laboratory for Air Quality and Health (WHO CC for Air Quality and Health); Director - Australia, Australia – China Centre for Air Quality Science and Management (ACC-AQSM), Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1285432019-12-11T03:41:24Z2019-12-11T03:41:24ZNow Australian cities are choking on smoke, will we finally talk about climate change?<p>I moved to Sydney less than five weeks ago and the city has been shrouded in smoke haze on and off since then. I joke this is my “Sydney hazing” but it’s only now – having worked on climate change for over a decade – that I’m suddenly feeling burnt out. This is not in any way to compare my experience to those who have lost their homes, communities and loved ones to the bushfires. </p>
<p>But the smoke cuts through Australia’s clouds of climate denial that pretend we are neither vulnerable nor responsible. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-needs-stricter-rules-to-curb-air-pollution-but-theres-a-lot-we-could-all-do-now-71075">Australia needs stricter rules to curb air pollution, but there's a lot we could all do now</a>
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<p>We often refer to the “atmosphere” and “climate” of a particular space or community. We can be “on cloud nine”, “under the weather”, or “snowed under”. We know the weather affects people’s moods. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755458619300453">My research</a>, and that from a range of disciplines, is increasingly finding that human emotional, social and embodied experiences are intimately related to the weather and climate. </p>
<p>So, might people’s climate concern be changing now Sydney and Canberra have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/10/sydneys-air-11-times-worse-than-hazardous-levels-as-australias-bushfires-rage">air quality on a par with Delhi</a>? </p>
<h2>Psychological smokescreens</h2>
<p>Research is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0641-3">mixed</a> on how extreme weather changes people’s perspectives on climate change. After severe storms and floods hit the UK in 2013 and 2014, scientists found <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1837-4">those directly affected</a> were more worried about climate change and supported climate change policies beyond direct, flood-related mitigation. </p>
<p>On the other hand, climate-change sceptics polled in the US in 2011 were more likely to recall the summer of 2010-11 as a normal one, despite <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959378013001660">record-breaking heatwaves across the northern hemisphere</a>. </p>
<p>Some research has suggested climate change can prompt “<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/soc4.12586">information aversion</a>”, where we actively or subconsciously avoid distressing facts and construct a safer, more comforting narrative.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/air-pollution-may-be-affecting-how-happy-you-are-110470">Air pollution may be affecting how happy you are</a>
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<p>This tendency may be what drives such bracing platitudes as: “Australia is a sunburnt country”; “We’ve always had fires”; “Us Aussies are tough!”</p>
<p>A few face masks aside, the majority of us in Australia’s smoky cities have appeared to continue with business as usual: people just keep going to work. But I hope that, below this surface, the lingering taste of char at the back of our throats is sparking a change in the political atmosphere.</p>
<h2>Igniting political change</h2>
<p>No one should tell you how to feel about climate change, but I can tell you that you have a right to feel angry and sad. It is normal to feel overwhelmed – a word that once meant being literally inundated by water – in a world with rising seas and increasing floods. </p>
<p>Relatedly, droughts can leave us <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/22/murray-darling-river-aboriginal-culture-dry-elders-despair-walgett">feeling drained</a>. Awakening and sitting with these feelings is really important, but it’s also crucial not to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-rise-of-eco-anxiety-climate-change-affects-our-mental-health-too-123002">dwell in despair</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-rise-of-eco-anxiety-climate-change-affects-our-mental-health-too-123002">The rise of 'eco-anxiety': climate change affects our mental health, too</a>
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<p>The social atmosphere is changing, of course: over the last year, around the world, we have seen <a href="https://time.com/5741593/black-friday-climate-strike/">millions of people take to the streets</a> demanding stronger action on climate change. Our <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/20/hundreds-of-thousands-attend-school-climate-strike-rallies-across-australia">Aussie kids have been leaders</a> in this regard. </p>
<p>Research and <a href="https://www.tai.org.au/content/climate-nation-2019">polling</a> consistently find the majority of Australians are <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/environment-is-prime-worry-for-the-first-time-poll-20191201-p53fu5.html">highly concerned about climate change</a> and would back <a href="https://www.tai.org.au/sites/default/files/Polling%20-%20April%202019%20-%20North%20South%20%5BWeb%5D_0.pdf">government policies to rapidly decarbonise the economy</a>.</p>
<p>But research also tells us hardly anyone talks about their climate concern. For example, a recent <a href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/climate-spiral-silence-america/">study from Yale University</a> found only 18% of Americans hear people they know talking about climate change once a month or more. It makes sense: climate change is scary and has become highly politicised, meaning it is hard to know where to start, what to say, or who to talk to. </p>
<p>While this is a coping mechanism to try to protect ourselves emotionally, these norms work to deny the significance of climate change, prevent useful personal and social introspection and stall community action.</p>
<p>So how do we create a change in the political climate? Those of us for whom a smoky city is our only tangible experience, so far, of climate change, need to step up and demand our government not only meet <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-counting-on-cooking-the-books-to-meet-its-climate-targets-110768">minimum international obligations</a>, but become the <a href="https://theconversation.com/enough-ambition-and-hydrogen-could-get-australia-to-200-renewable-energy-127117">renewable energy</a> and climate policy leaders we could be. We also need to <a href="https://medium.com/s/story/how-to-have-a-useful-conversation-about-climate-change-in-11-steps-d4bbd4135e35">talk about climate change</a> more: with our friends, families, peers and communities. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/expect-family-talks-about-climate-change-this-christmas-take-tips-from-greta-thunberg-124426">Expect family talks about climate change this Christmas? Take tips from Greta Thunberg</a>
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<p>Discussing the fires last week, one colleague mentioned she was fuming. This struck me as an empathetic echo of the smouldering state of our regional communities. My favourite sign from the school strikes has been “As oceans rise, so do we”. And now, I’d like to add, “As fires rage, so do we”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128543/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Blanche Verlie is an advisory board member with Climate for Change</span></em></p>Fuming, burnt out, drained. Can our smoky cities spark a change in the political atmosphere?Blanche Verlie, Postdoctoral research fellow, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1276162019-11-27T18:42:29Z2019-11-27T18:42:29ZCrafting in times of crisis helps critters and creators<p>The bushfires burning across Australia are having a devastating impact on our unique native <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vBXGIlb9pw">wildlife</a>. </p>
<p>But while record numbers of injured and orphaned animals are being <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/suffering-queensland-wildlife-treated-in-record-numbers-amid-bushfires-20191121-p53cuv.html">treated</a>, tens of thousands of people across Australia and from as far away as <a href="https://www.facebook.com/littledandelionaustralia/">France</a> and the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/JeltjeAt100rozen">Netherlands</a>
are <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/here-s-how-you-can-help-the-koalas-hit-by-the-recent-horror-bushfires">responding</a> to the animals’ <a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/heartbreaking-photos-of-animals-bushfire-injuries-and-how-you-can-help-110143002.html">plight</a> by knitting, crocheting and sewing pouches to soothe and keep them warm and quiet when they come into <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-14/small-sewn-items-make-big-difference-to-animals-injured-in-bush/11703996">care</a>.</p>
<p>Their efforts are the latest in a long history of crafting in times of crisis. </p>
<h2>Home comforts</h2>
<p>Craft has long provided comfort to both creators and recipients. It has also shaped the fabric of our society. </p>
<p>More than 115 years ago, the suffragettes <a href="https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1757&context=tsaconf">embroidered</a> banners and <a href="https://www.nla.gov.au/support-us/womens-suffrage">cloths</a> to display at their rallies for the right to vote. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303886/original/file-20191127-112531-ozj9ep.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303886/original/file-20191127-112531-ozj9ep.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303886/original/file-20191127-112531-ozj9ep.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=874&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303886/original/file-20191127-112531-ozj9ep.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=874&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303886/original/file-20191127-112531-ozj9ep.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=874&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303886/original/file-20191127-112531-ozj9ep.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1099&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303886/original/file-20191127-112531-ozj9ep.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1099&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303886/original/file-20191127-112531-ozj9ep.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1099&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Knitting soldier comforts was seen as a way for those at home to do their bit in wartime.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Girls%27_Activities_-_Miscellaneous_-_Children%27s_War_Relief_Activities,_Plainfield,_New_Jersey._Knitting_socks_for_soldiers_-_NARA_-_31483164.jpg">Photographer: Mrs. W. Durrant/Wikimedia</a></span>
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<p>During World War I, thousands of Australian women and children knitted more than a million pairs of <a href="https://theconversation.com/one-million-pairs-of-socks-knitting-for-victory-in-the-first-world-war-30149">socks</a> for soldiers serving in the trenches in France. The practice of crafting in a crisis continued into <a href="https://theconversation.com/one-million-pairs-of-socks-knitting-for-victory-in-the-first-world-war-30149">World War II</a> with Australian government departments issuing knitting patterns and guidelines for suitable garments that soldiers could wear to war. </p>
<p>More recently, groups like the <a href="https://knitting-nannas.com/">Knitting Nannas Against Gas</a> have tapped into the history of using knitting as a tool for non-violent political <a href="https://www.phansw.org.au/knitting-as-an-historical-and-activist-source/">activism</a>. </p>
<p>Likewise, in 2017, the <a href="https://www.wel.org.au/">Women’s Electoral Lobby</a> published the <a href="https://www.wel.org.au/pussy_hat_project">pussy hat knitting pattern</a> in solidarity with women’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Women%27s_March">marches</a> around the world.</p>
<p>Australia’s wildlife in need has a strong appeal for crafters. </p>
<p>Philip Island’s <a href="https://penguinfoundation.org.au/what-s-new/knits-for-nature/">Knits for Nature</a> project began after oil spills in the late 1990s and the early 2000s threatened the area’s penguins. Thousands of knitters worldwide rallied to support the cause and continue to donate. </p>
<p>Today, Australia is experiencing an early and extreme bushfire emergency linked to <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/not-normal-climate-change-bushfire-web/">climate change</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/drought-and-climate-change-were-the-kindling-and-now-the-east-coast-is-ablaze-126750">Drought and climate change were the kindling, and now the east coast is ablaze</a>
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<p>Kristie Newton, campaign manager for animal rescue group <a href="https://www.wires.org.au/">WIRES</a>, says that timing of the fires has made things worse for animal rescue groups: </p>
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<p>It’s spring, which is our busiest time of year. We’re getting many hundreds of calls each day about orphaned and injured wildlife because it’s breeding season, but so many of our resources have been taken up by the bushfire emergency. </p>
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<p>Community members and organisations are mobilising to <a href="https://www.ravelry.com/patterns/library/crochet-marsupial-pouch?fbclid=IwAR0QdSS9ILfKweO3_icoG_3phINWzZlXZkL-Ps4V3nNTcFo_bR8qm3F-ZqU">crochet</a> and knit marsupial pouches, make pouches and linings for <a href="https://www.wires.org.au/Default.aspx?PageID=15928428&A=SearchResult&SearchID=4672112&ObjectID=15928428&ObjectType=1">orphaned joeys</a> or sew <a href="https://www.silketouchquilting.com/wildlife-care-sewing-patterns/">bat wraps</a>. WIRES has received donations from Australia, NZ, UK, USA, Sweden, Norway and Japan and delivered hundreds of pouches to carers. </p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/795/natgeoroo.gif?1574826961" width="100%"></p>
<h2>Many hands</h2>
<p>Sydney-based fibre artist <a href="https://www.littledandelion.com/little-dandelion-bio">Jacqui Fink</a> is one person helping to co-ordinate donations of pouches and linings for wildlife welfare groups. She agrees with Newton that, “The fires are so huge and horrific that people are desperate to help as many animals as possible in any way they can”. </p>
<p>“Lots of school teachers have asked me to send patterns so that the kids can make pouches and linings. Church groups have been amazing, and even a women’s prison in South Australia has been in contact asking for information. I’ve received packages of pouches and linings from all over the Australia,” Fink says.</p>
<p>Newton also says that many schools have been in touch with WIRES for information about how to make pouches and the phone has been ringing off the hook with offers of help.</p>
<p>It is not just the local crafting community rallying around the cause. </p>
<p>“I’ve received more than 10,000 emails from as far away as Estonia, Finland, South Africa, Canada, Germany and New Zealand from people looking for patterns to make pouches to help our wildlife,” Fink notes.</p>
<p>Making pouches and linings is a low-cost, sustainable way for people to help. As long as the pouches are made from pure wool and the linings are cotton or flannelette, they’ll meet the fabric requirements to keep the animals safe and snug. </p>
<p>“We crafters are a practical mob. We love a job and we often have huge stashes of fabric and yarn lying around the house,” Fink says. </p>
<p>Pouches and linings can also be made from woollen blankets and old cotton sheets, saving them from landfill.</p>
<h2>Creating agency</h2>
<p>People are often keen to get involved in crafting during a crisis because it gives them a sense of purpose. </p>
<p>There is evidence that the acts of <a href="http://www.knitforhealthandwellness.com/">knitting</a>,<a href="https://anxietyresourcecenter.org/2017/10/crochet-helps-brain/">crochet</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/stitching-lives-back-together-mens-rehabilitation-embroidery-in-wwi-76326">sewing</a> can all help people to feel less anxious and deal with <a href="https://www.interweave.com/article/crochet/combat-crochet/">traumatic</a> events. </p>
<p>And although the <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/11/massive-australian-blazes-will-reframe-our-understanding-bushfire">scale</a> of the Australian bushfires is overwhelming, making pouches for animals feels like a practical step. </p>
<p>“It’s a meaningful way to help and people can know that something they’ve made with their hands will keep an animal warm at night. That’s a beautiful gift to give,” Newton says. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-craft-is-good-for-our-health-98755">How craft is good for our health</a>
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<p>The pouch and lining patterns are so basic that it’s an opportunity to learn new skills and carry on traditional crafts. Crafting pouches and liners can also allow kids to <a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfires-can-make-kids-scared-and-anxious-here-are-5-steps-to-help-them-cope-126926%20the%20animals">focus on something positive</a>. </p>
<p>Youth health nurse Debbie Downie from Kirwan State High School in Townsville organised for students and teachers to sew koala mittens at lunchtime. Parents and other local community members also got involved by donating fabric or coming in to sew with the children. They’ve now made more than 150 koala mittens for animals affected by the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/abcinbrisbane/posts/10157997709999669">bushfires</a>.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">How to make a pouch for critters in need.</span></figcaption>
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<p>In a crisis, small acts of crafting can be among the most powerful. </p>
<p>“All those incredible volunteers on the frontline can feel so alone and frustrated, but rising up and rallying with craft lets them know that out there people care,” Fink says. </p>
<p>Newton agrees. “We’ve been overwhelmed by the kindness of people and it’s helping us keep going, now and into the future.” </p>
<p>In times of crisis, we can echo the wartime slogan: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keep_Calm_and_Carry_On">Keep calm</a> and craft on.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127616/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emily Brayshaw does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Thousands of people in Australia and around the world have rallied to knit and crochet comfort items for wildlife. Their efforts are the latest in a long history of crafting for a cause.Emily Brayshaw, Lecturer, Fashion and Design History, Theory, and Thinking, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1275162019-11-22T02:17:37Z2019-11-22T02:17:37ZHow to manage your essential medicines in a bushfire or other emergency<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303054/original/file-20191121-112975-14msbiq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2%2C4%2C994%2C652&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In an emergency, like a bushfire, making sure you have enough of your regular medication can mean the difference between life and death. But there are many ways to prepare.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/australian-bushfires-2018-nsw-1314222035?src=e0689ffc-a914-4f72-9942-0725c91c91c9-1-4&studio=1">from www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Some people find managing their medication difficult at the best of times. But in an emergency, like a bushfire or cyclone, this can be harder still. </p>
<p>As catastrophic bushfires burn across Australia, here’s what to think about as part of your emergency planning to make sure you have access to the medicines you need.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-you-can-do-about-the-health-impact-of-bushfire-smoke-19333">What you can do about the health impact of bushfire smoke</a>
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<p>As part of your emergency plan, list your medications and where you keep them, along with contact details for your doctor and pharmacist and any other relevant emergency services. </p>
<p>If you have advanced warning of emergency conditions, check both your supply of tablets and any prescriptions you may need. Your prescription label will tell you how many repeats you have left. Try and keep at least one week’s medication on hand.</p>
<h2>I need to evacuate. Now what?</h2>
<p>If you need to evacuate, know how best to store and transport your medication. Most medications for conditions such as blood pressure or cholesterol need to be stored below 25-30°C. These medications will be OK if temperatures are higher than this for short periods of time, while you transport them.</p>
<p>Medicines sensitive to temperature will need to be stored or transported with cold packs in an insulated container of some sort, such as an esky. Putting them in a ziplock bag will help protect them from moisture.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/evacuating-with-a-baby-heres-what-to-put-in-your-emergency-kit-127026">Evacuating with a baby? Here's what to put in your emergency kit</a>
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<p>Insulin is one common medication you need to <a href="https://www.betterhealth.vic.gov.au/health/conditionsandtreatments/diabetes-and-insulin">store cold</a>. Your current insulin pen can be stored at room temperature. But store unused pens with a cold pack in an esky until you find refrigeration.</p>
<p>This also applies to <a href="https://www.nps.org.au/medicine-finder/eutroxsig-tablets">thyroxine</a> tablets. Fourteen days supply (usually one strip of tablets) is OK if stored at room temperature. But keep the rest with a cold pack. If you don’t think it will be possible to keep the rest below 25°C for a long time, also keep these with the cold pack.</p>
<p>Many antibiotic syrups, such as <a href="https://www.healthdirect.gov.au/cephalexin">cefalexin</a>, also need to be kept cold. But check the dispensing label or speak to your pharmacist if you are not sure.</p>
<h2>What if I run out of medicine?</h2>
<p>If you are caught without essential medication, doctors and pharmacists can help in a number of ways.</p>
<p>This is easier if you have a regular GP and pharmacist who will both have a complete record of your medication. Your pharmacist can call your GP and <a href="https://www.legislation.nsw.gov.au/#/view/regulation/2008/392/part3/div4/subDiv2/sec44">obtain verbal approval</a> to supply your medication. Your GP will then need to fax or email the prescription to your pharmacist as soon as possible and mail the original script within seven days.</p>
<p>Pharmacists can also dispense emergency supplies of cholesterol medicines and oral contraceptives, so long as you already take them. Under so-called <a href="https://www.humanservices.gov.au/organisations/health-professionals/services/medicare/pbs-pharmacists/initiatives/continued-dispensing">continued dispensing arrangements</a>, pharmacists can dispense a single pack of these medicines once every 12 months.</p>
<p>If you cannot get in touch with your GP, in an emergency, most states allow a pharmacist to dispense a <a href="https://www.legislation.nsw.gov.au/#/view/regulation/2008/392/part3/div4/subDiv2/sec45">three-day supply</a> of your medication. But this is only if the pharmacist has enough information to make that judgement.</p>
<p>Some medicines, such as strong pain medications and sleeping tablets, are not covered by these provisions.</p>
<h2>Medicines for people with lung conditions, like asthma</h2>
<p>People with existing lung conditions (such as asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or bronchitis), older people, young children and pregnant women are most likely to be vulnerable to the effect of <a href="https://www.nationalasthma.org.au/news/2019/record-pollen-fires-wind-and-storms-a-dangerous-mix-for-asthma">bushfire smoke</a>. They can also have symptoms long after a bushfire if fine particulate matter is still in the air.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-does-poor-air-quality-from-bushfire-smoke-affect-our-health-126835">How does poor air quality from bushfire smoke affect our health?</a>
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<p>If you have a respiratory condition, follow the <a href="https://www.nationalasthma.org.au/living-with-asthma/asthma-action-plans">action plan</a> you will have already discussed with your doctor, which outlines what to do in an emergency. </p>
<p>This plan includes instructions on what you should do if your asthma gets worse, such as taking extra doses or additional medication. It also tells you when you should contact your doctor or go to the emergency department.</p>
<p>If you have a respiratory condition, such as asthma, and live in a bush fire prone zone, this action plan needs to be part of your fire safety survival plan.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/thunderstorm-asthma-whos-at-risk-and-how-to-manage-it-86397">Thunderstorm asthma: who's at risk and how to manage it</a>
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<p>You also need to make sure you have enough <a href="https://www.nationalasthma.org.au/understanding-asthma/treatment-and-medicines">preventer and reliever medications</a>, for asthma for example, to hand just in case there is an emergency.</p>
<p>If you don’t have an action plan, taking four separate puffs of your reliever medication may relieve acute symptoms. This applies for adults and children.</p>
<h2>In a nutshell</h2>
<p>Being prepared for an emergency, like a bushfire, goes a long way to keeping you and your family safe. That applies to thinking about your supply of medicines well in advance, if possible. </p>
<p>But if conditions change rapidly and you need to evacuate, an esky containing medicines for a few days, and contact numbers for your GP and pharmacist, could save your life.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127516/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Bartlett is a member of the Australian College of Pharmacy</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bandana Saini receives funds from the NHMRC, Australian Department of Health (via Community Pharmacy Agreements) and Asthma Australia.</span></em></p>During bushfire season, managing medication as well as respiratory conditions should be part of any emergency plan.Andrew Bartlett, Associate Lecturer Pharmacy Practice, University of SydneyBandana Saini, Associate Professor, Pharmacy Practice, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1270192019-11-20T04:09:23Z2019-11-20T04:09:23ZIt’s hard to breathe and you can’t think clearly – if you defend your home against a bushfire, be mentally prepared<p>If you live in a bushfire-prone area, you’ll likely have considered what you will do in the event of a bushfire. </p>
<p>The decision, which should be made well in advance of bushfire season, is whether to stay and actively defend a well-prepared property or to leave the area while it’s safe to do so.</p>
<p>The emphasis in bushfire safety is on leaving early. This is the safest option.</p>
<p>In “catastrophic” fire conditions, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/11/catastrophic-fire-danger-what-does-it-mean-and-and-what-should-we-do-in-these-conditions">message from NSW Rural Fire Service</a> is that for your survival, leaving early is the <em>only</em> option. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-bushfire-can-destroy-a-home-110795">How a bushfire can destroy a home</a>
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<p>In other fire conditions, staying and defending requires accurately assessing the safety of your house and the surrounding environment, preparing your property in line with current best practice and understanding fire <a href="https://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/documents/3554830/3557908/Defending+your+Property-V5.pdf/1ff83cbb-bd66-a52b-dcc8-6ab9bb8575da?t=1573692604910">conditions</a>.</p>
<p>It also requires a realistic assessment of not just your personal physical capacity to stay and defend but also your psychological capacity. </p>
<h2>Why do people stay and defend?</h2>
<p>Our survey of people who experienced <a href="http://www.bnhcrc.com.au/publications/2017nswbushfires">the 2017 NSW bushfires</a> asked what they would do next summer if there were catastrophic conditions. Some 27% would get ready to stay and defend, and 24% said they would wait to see if there was a fire before deciding whether to stay and defend or leave.</p>
<p>Animal ownership, a lack of insurance, and valuable assets such as agricultural sheds and equipment, are motivators for decisions to stay and defend. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-we-plan-for-animals-in-emergencies-126936">How we plan for animals in emergencies</a>
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<p>If animal owners aren’t home they will often return to their properties when bushfire warnings are issued, contrary to official advice, to retrieve or protect their <a href="http://www.bnhcrc.com.au/publications/2017nswbushfires">animals</a> and physical assets. </p>
<p>Although these decisions are understandable they can also lead people who aren’t physically or psychologically suited to staying and defending to do so.</p>
<h2>What if you’re not psychologically up to it?</h2>
<p>The reality is that a bushfire is a threatening, high-risk situation. It’s hard to see, hard to breathe, noisy and hot.</p>
<p>These conditions can overwhelm our ability to think clearly and act calmly. People in the <a href="https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/news/2016/sampson-flat-fire-research-findings">Sampson Flat Fire in South Australia in 2015</a>, for example, experienced high levels of stress which caused them to:</p>
<ul>
<li>change their plan at the last minute, including leaving late which is the most dangerous response to a fire</li>
<li>drive unsafely, especially speeding</li>
<li>forget to take important items (such as medication)</li>
<li>leave their animals behind</li>
<li>engage in unrelated tasks that took up precious time</li>
<li>ignore the threat (by going to sleep, for example).</li>
</ul>
<p>This is one person’s account of how they responded as the fire approached:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[I] grabbed my son […] saw the smoke and […] went and got the boxes that I’d prepared which I packed when he was a baby. So I had stupid things in the boxes, like baby outfits. But I can’t freak him out […]</p>
<p>[I]n the back of my mind I’m thinking about what do I need to do […] I’ve quarter a tank of diesel, I’d better go get diesel. I also had a back seat full of books that I’d been tidying up [from] his room, so I thought op shop, better do that because I’ll clear the back seat. […]</p>
<p>Came in the house like a mad woman screaming for cats, nowhere in sight. I’ve got four cats and not one of them [is there]. Grabbed a bag and then started putting stupid amounts of clothes in like 20 pair of socks, and then basically I threw the dog in the car. […] So flat panic.</p>
</blockquote>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfires-can-make-kids-scared-and-anxious-here-are-5-steps-to-help-them-cope-126926">Bushfires can make kids scared and anxious: here are 5 steps to help them cope</a>
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<h2>What’s going on with our thinking?</h2>
<p>The spectrum of actions from frenzy and flight to freezing reflects the model of “<a href="http://www.crowe-associates.co.uk/psychotherapy/window-of-tolerance/">affective tolerance</a>”. When stress exceeds what we can tolerate, we can become hyper-aroused and may have racing thoughts and act impulsively. </p>
<p>Or we may experience hypo-arousal, where we shut down and feel numb and passive.</p>
<p>Our brains consist of three basic parts: the brain stem, limbic system and cortex. These are sometimes described as the primitive, emotional and thinking brains.</p>
<p>In most situations, our thinking brain mediates physical responses to the world around us. </p>
<p>But under high amounts of stress, this connecting loop between the more reactive emotional and physical parts of our brain and our thinking cortex becomes separated. University of California, Los Angeles, professor of psychiatry Dan Siegel <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0T_2NNoC68">describes this</a> as flipping our lid. </p>
<p>Flipping our lid is an automatic response and, from an evolutionary perspective, it’s a highly useful one – we don’t have time to think about whether or not to run when our lives are threatened. </p>
<p>But in a bushfire, these automatic responses are often <a href="https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/sites/default/files/managed/downloads/12._i_think_im_going_to_be_frightened_out_of_my_wits_-_every.pdf">not the best way to respond</a> and can prompt us to make unsafe decisions.</p>
<p>To survive a bushfire, we need to make complex and often highly emotional decisions in rapidly changing conditions.</p>
<h2>How do you control the fear?</h2>
<p>In an <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-apr-2011-deep-survival-experiences-of-some-who-lived-when-they-might-have-died-in-the-7-february-2009-bushfires/">analysis of 33 people who survived extreme conditions in the Black Saturday bushfires</a>, researchers tentatively concluded that the major contributor to their survival was their ability to maintain their mental focus. They could control their fear and keep their attention on the threat and how to respond.</p>
<p>In order to stay and defend safely, it’s vital to have the skills to re-connect the loop between the thinking and the automatic and feeling parts of the <a href="http://www.danielgoleman.info/from-the-basement-to-the-balcony-your-brain-in-an-emergency/">brain</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.psychology.org.au/getmedia/c24bf1ba-a5fc-45d5-a982-835873148b9a/Psychological-preparation-for-natural-disasters.pdf">AIM model</a>, based on stress inoculation theory, suggests preparing before bushfire by anticipating, identifying and developing strategies for coping with stress:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><strong>anticipate</strong>: know how the brain and body responds in an emergency (and that these are normal)</p></li>
<li><p><strong>identify</strong>: be aware that this response is occurring (what is happening in your mind/body that tells you that you are acting from the “basement brain”)</p></li>
<li><p><strong>manage</strong>: have practised strategies for switching mindsets and re-establishing the brain loop.</p></li>
</ul>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420918310690">A large Australian study shows</a> people who are better psychologically prepared for a bushfire:</p>
<ul>
<li>have accessed information on what it means to be mentally prepared</li>
<li>have previous experience of bushfires</li>
<li>are mindful (have the ability to stay present)</li>
<li>use an active coping style such as the AIM model (anticipate, identify, manage)</li>
<li>have low levels of stress and depression.</li>
</ul>
<p>Currently, the most accessible resource on developing mental preparedness is the Australian Red Cross RediPlan <a href="https://www.redcross.org.au/getmedia/b896b60f-5b6c-49b2-a114-57be2073a1c2/red-cross-rediplan-disaster-preparedness-guide.pdf.aspx">guide</a> which includes preparing your mind based on the AIM (anticipate, identify, manage) model.</p>
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<p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-land-is-burning-and-western-science-does-not-have-all-the-answers-100331">Our land is burning, and Western science does not have all the answers</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127019/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Danielle Every receives funding from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mel Taylor receives funding from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre. </span></em></p>In catastrophic fire conditions, leaving early is the only safe option. But in other conditions, one thing that’s often overlooked in decisions to stay or go is how mentally tough you need to be.Danielle Every, Senior Research Fellow in social vulnerability and disasters, CQUniversity AustraliaMel Taylor, Senior Lecturer in Organisational Psychology, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1272252019-11-20T03:45:03Z2019-11-20T03:45:03ZClimate change will make fire storms more likely in southeastern Australia<p>Temperatures across many regions of Australia are set to exceed 40°C this week, including <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/heatwave/#heatwave-forecasts">heatwaves</a> forecast throughout parts of eastern Australia, raising the spectre of more devastating bushfires.</p>
<p>We have already heard <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6486857/nsw-fire-emergency-what-all-the-terms-mean/">warnings</a> this fire season of the possibility of firestorms, created when extreme fires in the right conditions form their own weather systems. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/firestorms-and-flaming-tornadoes-how-bushfires-create-their-own-ferocious-weather-systems-126832">Firestorms and flaming tornadoes: how bushfires create their own ferocious weather systems</a>
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<p>Firestorms are the common term for pyrocumulonimbus bushfires – fires so intense they create their own <a href="http://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/1618/when-bushfires-make-their-own-weather/">thunderstorms</a>, extreme winds, black hail, and lightning. </p>
<p>While they are very rare, our research published <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL083699">earlier this year</a>, found climate change is making it likely they will become more common in parts of southeast Australia.</p>
<p>We also identified <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-46362-x.pdf">certain regions</a> in southern and eastern Australia, including near Melbourne’s fringe, that in the second half of this century will be far more vulnerable to these events than others.</p>
<h2>How firestorms happen</h2>
<p>The 2003 Canberra bushfires, devastating on a grand scale, saw a Canberra resident <a href="https://esa.act.gov.au/cbr-be-emergency-ready/bushfires/fire-tornado-video">film a fire tornado</a> for the first time ever. Six years later, the ferocious Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria created <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/2017JD026577">three separate pyrocumulonimbus events</a>.</p>
<p>More recently, fire storms devastated California in November 2018.</p>
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<p>Pyrocumulonimbus events begin with the intense heat of a very big and fast-burning wildfire, which causes a large and rapidly rising smoke plume. As the plume rises, low atmospheric pressure causes it to expand and cool. Moisture can condense into a type of cloud known as a <em>pyrocumulus</em> - not pyrocumulonimbus, yet. This type of cloud can be common in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44awwgj7kVA">large fires</a>.</p>
<p>However, with the right environmental conditions the plume goes much higher and pyrocumulonimbus clouds can form, towering up to 15km in some cases. As it rises, the plume cools, and the upper part of the clouds form ice particles that collide and can produce lightning.</p>
<p>These thunderstorms can create erratic and dangerously strong wind gusts. These can drive blizzards of embers that ignite spot fires beyond the fire font. </p>
<p>Lightning from the plume can start new fires, well ahead of the main fire. In one case, lightning generated in a pyrocumulonimbus cloud has been recorded starting new fires up to <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017JD026577">100km ahead</a> of the main fire.</p>
<h2>How climate change makes firestorms more likely</h2>
<p>One of the key elements to a firestorm forming is the precondition of the atmosphere above it. We wanted to investigate how a changing climate might affect the likelihood of firestorms happening.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cawcr.gov.au/technical-reports/CTR_020.pdf">Previous research</a> has found there is more dynamic interaction between a large fire and the atmosphere when the air about 1.5km above the surface is relatively dry, and when there are larger temperature differences across increasing altitudes. </p>
<p>The larger the temperature difference, the more unstable the atmosphere may become. When higher altitudes get cold more quickly than normal, and are also very dry at low levels, it can become more likely that a pyrocumulonimbus event will develop during a large fire.</p>
<p>We used high-resolution climate modelling of projected lower atmospheric instability and dryness conditions to assess the risk of pyrocumulonimbus in southeastern Australia between 2060 and 2079, compared with 1990-2009. We then overlaid this information with the <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/Research/Environment/Extreme-Events/Bushfire/Fire-danger-meters/Mk5-forest-fire-danger-meter">forest fire danger index</a> to identify particularly dangerous fire days.</p>
<p>We were then able to identify how often dangerous fire weather days occurred at the same time as a dry and unstable atmosphere. Verifying our models against <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/2017GL076654">past observations</a>, we then examined how often these two characteristics coincided in the future under climate change, should our greenhouse gas emissions remain on their current trajectory.</p>
<p>The results were startling. From 2060 onwards, we saw sharp increases in dangerous fire days across southeast Australia that coincided with atmospheric conditions primed to <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL083699">generate firestorms</a>.</p>
<p>These extremely dangerous days also shifted across seasons, starting to appear in late spring, whereas historically Australian pyrocumulonimbus wildfires have typically been <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL083699">summer phenomena</a>. </p>
<p>Across large areas of Victoria and South Australia, on average, we saw four or five more days every spring that were conducive to pyrocumulonimbus events.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-surprising-answer-to-a-hot-question-controlled-burns-often-fail-to-slow-a-bushfire-127022">A surprising answer to a hot question: controlled burns often fail to slow a bushfire</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>These were sobering findings, even in a land of extremes like Australia. Our research suggests human-caused climate change has already resulted in <a href="http://nespclimate.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/A4_4pp_brochure_NESP_ESCC_Bushfires_FINAL_Oct9_2019_WEB.pdf">more dangerous</a> weather conditions for bushfires in recent decades for many regions of Australia. These trends are very likely to increase due to rising greenhouse gas emissions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127225/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Dowdy receives funding from the Earth Systems and Climate Change (ESCC) Hub of the National Environmental Science Program (NESP) and various state government research funding programs. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Evans receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the National Environmental Science Programme Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub, and various NSW state government research funding programs.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Sharples receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Giovanni Di Virgilio and Rick McRae do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Extreme fire risk will overlap with weather patterns to create fire tornadoes more often under climate change.Giovanni Di Virgilio, Research associate, UNSW SydneyAndrew Dowdy, Senior Research Scientist, Australian Bureau of MeteorologyJason Evans, Associate Professor, UNSW SydneyJason Sharples, Associate Professor, School of Physical, Environmental and Mathematical Sciences, UNSW Australia, UNSW SydneyRick McRae, Researcher, Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre, ACT Emergency Services AgencyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1271262019-11-19T19:30:52Z2019-11-19T19:30:52ZPutting homes in high-risk areas is asking too much of firefighters<p>The impacts of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/spring-2019-bushfires-78555">bushfires</a> that are overwhelming emergency services in New South Wales and Queensland suggest houses are being built in areas where the risks are high. We rely heavily on emergency services to protect people and property, but strategic land-use planning can improve resilience and so help reduce the risk in the first place. This would mean giving more weight to considering bushfire hazards at the earliest stages of planning housing supply.</p>
<p>The outstanding dedication of emergency agencies such as the NSW Rural Fire Service and Queensland Fire and Emergency Service is obvious in their efforts to save lives and properties despite the increasing intensity of fires. However, strategic land-use planning could help reduce the risks by being more responsive to such changes in hazards. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-when-the-firies-call-him-out-on-climate-change-scott-morrison-should-listen-127049">Grattan on Friday: When the firies call him out on climate change, Scott Morrison should listen</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Comprehensive management of bushfire risk should include a strategic planning focus on reducing the pressures on emergency services and communities. We may have to rethink land-use planning approaches that <a href="https://www.planning.org.au/documents/item/9341">prove inadequate</a> to deal with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-are-natural-disasters-on-the-rise-39232">increasing intensity and unpredictability of natural hazards</a>.</p>
<p>Strategic planning policies and practices provide the opportunity to be more attentive to changes in bushfire hazards in particular. Planning decisions that fail to do this may leave communities exposed and heavily reliant on emergency services during a disaster.</p>
<h2>Planning to build resilience</h2>
<p>The Australian government has <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/media/1958/manual-7-planning-safer-communities.pdf">identified land-use planning as a key step</a> in managing natural hazards. In 2011, the <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/emergency/files/national-strategy-disaster-resilience.pdf">Council of Australian Governments</a> declared:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Locating new or expanding existing settlements and infrastructure in areas exposed to unreasonable risk is irresponsible.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The increasing intensity of hazards associated with <a href="https://outlook.ndcs.undp.org/">climate change</a> makes strategic planning even more relevant. Land-use planners could help greatly with building <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221242091630070X">resilience</a> by placing natural hazards at the top of their assessment criteria.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/drought-and-climate-change-were-the-kindling-and-now-the-east-coast-is-ablaze-126750">Drought and climate change were the kindling, and now the east coast is ablaze</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Coordinating land-use planning reforms is itself a challenge. Planning in Australia involves many policies, institutions, professions and decision-makers. Policies and processes <a href="https://www.planning.org.au/documents/item/9341">differ</a> depending on the state or territory. </p>
<p>Furthermore, planners must reconcile the demand for residential land from <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/latestProducts/3222.0Media%20Release12017%20(base)%20-%202066">population growth</a> and the need to protect the environment. Deciding where to locate housing is often fraught with complexity, so the process needs expert early input from relevant <a href="https://gar.unisdr.org/sites/default/files/reports/2019-05/full_gar_report.pdf">scientific communities</a> and <a href="https://www.emergency.nsw.gov.au/Pages/for-the-community/community-service-workers/how-emergencies-are-managed-in-NSW/how-emergencies-are-managed-in-nsw.aspx">emergency services</a>. </p>
<h2>Anticipate risk to reduce it</h2>
<p>Land-use planning offers an opportunity in the earliest phase of development to manage the combined pressures of population growth, urban expansion, increasing density and risks of natural hazards.</p>
<p>When rezoning land for residential development, many issues have to be considered. These include environmental sustainability, demand for housing and the location of existing buildings and infrastructure, as well as natural hazards. It’s a <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/media/1958/manual-7-planning-safer-communities.pdf">complex and intricate process</a>, but clearly the strategic planning stage is the first opportunity to minimise exposure to bushfire risk. </p>
<p>Existing policy and processes may defer the detailed review of bushfire risk and other natural hazards to development stages after land has been rezoned. There’s a case for policy to increase the importance attached to bushfire hazards at this early stage. </p>
<p>Ultimately, strategic planners aim to locate settlements away from risk of natural hazards. However, bushfires continue to have disastrous impacts on people and properties. Ongoing demand for housing may add pressure to build in areas exposed to risk.</p>
<p>Settlements are pushing into undeveloped areas that are more likely to be exposed to bushfire risk. The role of strategic land-use planning then becomes even more critical. The devastation we have seen this month shows why this risk must be given the highest priority in land-use planning, particularly when zoning land as residential. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/natural-hazard-risk-is-it-just-going-to-get-worse-or-can-we-do-something-about-it-84286">Natural hazard risk: is it just going to get worse or can we do something about it?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Key steps to reform planning</h2>
<p>The increasing intensity of bushfires points to a need to rethink planning processes and mitigation strategies to reduce exposure to such hazards before they arise. This will help ease the burden on emergency services of managing a disaster when it happens. We can’t ignore the opportunities to minimise the risks at the early stages of land-use planning. Key steps include:</p>
<ul>
<li>a policy review to mandate natural hazards, including bushfire risk, as one of the highest priorities in policy, with an objective framework for making land-use decisions</li>
<li>mandatory consultation with relevant science disciplines to model natural hazard risks when land is considered for rezoning</li>
<li>involve emergency services in the strategic planning phase to help minimise future risk.</li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127126/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Maund receives a tuition fee scholarship under the Australian government's Research Training Program (RTP) for his PhD research. He is a consulting environmental scientist and planner in private practice and formerly for the NSW government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kim Maund does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thayaparan Gajendran does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Land-use planning should give more weight to the increasing risks of natural hazards like bushfires as the first step in reducing the impacts.Mark Maund, PhD Candidate, School of Architecture and Built Environment, University of NewcastleKim Maund, Discipline Head - Construction Management, School of Architecture and Built Environment, University of NewcastleThayaparan Gajendran, Associate Professor, School of Architecture and Built Environment, University of NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1270262019-11-19T04:17:05Z2019-11-19T04:17:05ZEvacuating with a baby? Here’s what to put in your emergency kit<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302348/original/file-20191119-169340-ytyxnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's difficult to recall what you might need as you're preparing to evacuate, so have your kit ready to go. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/mother-holding-child-safety-seat-baby-1162548529?src=c7949630-d3b3-4697-9e59-82a8a96d48e2-1-26">New Africa/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every summer in Australia, bushfires, cyclones and floods threaten lives and properties. Preparing for these emergencies includes creating <a href="https://www.redcross.org.au/campaigns/prepare/prepare-get-packing">an emergency kit</a> that contains everything you and your baby will need if essential services are disrupted or you need to evacuate. </p>
<p>Infants are <a href="http://research.usc.edu.au:8080/vital/access/manager/Repository/usc:25429?lightbox=true">particularly vulnerable</a> in emergencies. Without access to appropriate food and fluid they can become seriously ill within hours, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ejcn2009111">particularly in hot weather</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hospitals-feel-the-heat-too-from-extreme-weather-and-its-health-impacts-70997">Hospitals feel the heat too from extreme weather and its health impacts</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Families can be isolated without power or water in their homes for long periods. They can be <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/126921723">stranded in their cars while evacuating for hours or even days</a>. And because government planning for infants is lacking, even when you reach an evacuation centre, you may have to <a href="https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-019-7528-0">wait to access infant feeding supplies</a>.</p>
<p>But parents can find it difficult to pack the necessary supplies for their babies. We are so used to having reliable power and water that it’s hard to imagine what it’s like not to have them. </p>
<p>During the 2011 Queensland flooding and cyclone Yasi disasters, for example, <a href="https://www.usc.edu.au/explore/usc-news-exchange/news-archive/2018/december/floods-cyclones-bring-sickness-threat-to-babies">one-quarter of families evacuated</a> were unable to pack adequate infant feeding supplies. </p>
<p>This difficulty is compounded by the fact that, apart from <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/emergency/dealing-disasters/prepare-for-disasters/food-during-disaster">Queensland</a>, state and territory governments <a href="https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-019-7528-0">do not provide detailed guidance for parents</a> on what to pack for babies in emergency kits. Some emergency organisations offer more advice on what to pack for pets than for babies. </p>
<p>Gathering supplies at the last minute can be dangerous as it can delay leaving.</p>
<p>So, what do parents and caregivers need in their kit?</p>
<p>Emergency kits should have everything you need to look after your baby for at least three days without having any access to electricity or water.</p>
<h2>Breastfed babies</h2>
<p>If your baby is less than six months old and fully breastfed, you will need nappies, wipes, and some extra water to keep hydrated.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302328/original/file-20191119-169352-q133c9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302328/original/file-20191119-169352-q133c9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302328/original/file-20191119-169352-q133c9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302328/original/file-20191119-169352-q133c9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302328/original/file-20191119-169352-q133c9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302328/original/file-20191119-169352-q133c9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302328/original/file-20191119-169352-q133c9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302328/original/file-20191119-169352-q133c9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some mothers worry they won’t be able to breastfeed during an emergency. Babies are often unsettled in emergencies but <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16157942">stress doesn’t impact milk production</a>. </p>
<p>However, <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jn/article/131/11/3012S/4686704">it can slow the release of milk</a>. If this happens, keep offering the breast, look at your baby, think about how much you love them; this will release hormones that make the milk flow and help you and your baby to feel more relaxed. Frequent breastfeeding increases the amount of milk a baby takes from the breast.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302332/original/file-20191119-169374-1dwqpk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302332/original/file-20191119-169374-1dwqpk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302332/original/file-20191119-169374-1dwqpk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302332/original/file-20191119-169374-1dwqpk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302332/original/file-20191119-169374-1dwqpk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302332/original/file-20191119-169374-1dwqpk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302332/original/file-20191119-169374-1dwqpk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">You might need to feed more often.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/mother-breastfeeding-her-newborn-baby-boy-487631281?src=c1d06dd2-8c13-46fd-8e74-b11b0e6e322e-1-41">Romanova Anna/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Expressed breastmilk-fed babies</h2>
<p>If you feed your baby expressed breastmilk, you need to learn how to hand express, as it may not be possible to wash pump parts. </p>
<p>You will also need drinking water for yourself, detergent, around 400ml of water per feed for washing hands, disposable plastic cups or single-use bottles and teats for feeding the baby, as well as nappies and nappy wipes. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302553/original/file-20191119-111655-p2m1l6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302553/original/file-20191119-111655-p2m1l6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302553/original/file-20191119-111655-p2m1l6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302553/original/file-20191119-111655-p2m1l6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302553/original/file-20191119-111655-p2m1l6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302553/original/file-20191119-111655-p2m1l6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302553/original/file-20191119-111655-p2m1l6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302553/original/file-20191119-111655-p2m1l6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Formula-fed babies</h2>
<p>If you are are formula feeding, we suggest the following as a minimum:</p>
<ul>
<li>an unopened tin of infant formula</li>
<li>enough bottles and teats to have one for every feed (thoroughly washed, sterilised and completely dry before sealing in a ziplock bag)</li>
<li><a href="https://www.eatforhealth.gov.au/sites/default/files/files/the_guidelines/n56_infant_feeding_guidelines.pdf">small bottles of still drinking water</a> (not mineral or carbonated water) for reconstitution</li>
<li>large containers or bottles for washing hands and the preparation area (about 500ml per time) </li>
<li>detergent for washing hands and the preparation area</li>
<li>paper towels for drying hands and the preparation area</li>
<li>nappies and nappy wipes. </li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303666/original/file-20191126-112545-5x0xg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303666/original/file-20191126-112545-5x0xg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303666/original/file-20191126-112545-5x0xg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303666/original/file-20191126-112545-5x0xg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303666/original/file-20191126-112545-5x0xg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303666/original/file-20191126-112545-5x0xg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303666/original/file-20191126-112545-5x0xg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303666/original/file-20191126-112545-5x0xg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>All of these supplies can be stored in a large plastic tub with a flat lid that you can turn upside down and use as a clean preparation surface. </p>
<p>When using the kit, it’s important to only make up the infant formula when it is going to be fed to the baby and to throw out any leftover formula within an hour of starting the feed.</p>
<h2>Babies aged over six months</h2>
<p>If your baby has started solids, include enough canned baby foods and disposable spoons in your kit to feed your baby for three days.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302334/original/file-20191119-169393-uuip6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302334/original/file-20191119-169393-uuip6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302334/original/file-20191119-169393-uuip6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302334/original/file-20191119-169393-uuip6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302334/original/file-20191119-169393-uuip6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302334/original/file-20191119-169393-uuip6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302334/original/file-20191119-169393-uuip6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Babies aged over six months will need solids as well.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/520158634?src=6c5a4138-946c-4b0c-a430-530258cdede3-1-10&size=huge_jpg">Syda Productions/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Other things to consider</h2>
<p>If you are formula feeding and it’s possible you’re going to be isolated at home without power for more than a few days, you <a href="https://internationalbreastfeedingjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1746-4358-6-16/figures/3">may need to store resources</a> such as a gas stove and a large quantity of water to enable washing. </p>
<p>Emergencies often occur during heat waves and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/emergency/plan-for-an-emergency/2012-09-04/plan-for-a-heatwave/4215360?fbclid=IwAR1PreuexNYq8ZP0upXgfq7Q7VLOE6mIMfqHSkxcH6lm4MWdvAjapXl5DHw">general advice</a> includes drinking plenty of water to prevent dehydration. This advice doesn’t apply to babies under six months of age. Young babies can be made <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/00032470.htm">very ill if given water alone</a>. Instead, offer your baby <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/environment/factsheets/Factsheets/babies-children-hot-weather.pdf">more frequent breast or formula feeds</a>.</p>
<p>If you’re wondering whether to stop breastfeeding, consider delaying this decision until after the summer emergency season has passed, as it’s much easier to breastfeed than to formula feed in emergency conditions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127026/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karleen Gribble is a member of the international interagency collaboration the Infant and Young Child Feeding in Emergencies Core Group. She has been involved in the development of international guidance and training on infant feeding in emergencies and and has acted as a consultant to UNICEF and Save the Children on this subject. She is also an Australian Breastfeeding Association Community Educator and Counsellor and a member of the Public Health Association of Australia. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nina J Berry has been an Infant and Young Child Feeding in Emergencies Consultant to Save the Children in Myanmar following Cyclone Nargis. She is a qualified breastfeeding counsellor and community educator and volunteers on the National Breastfeeding Helpline. Dr Berry is a member of the Public Health Association of Australia and the World Public Health Nutrition Association.</span></em></p>Babies are particularly vulnerable in emergencies, especially in hot weather. Here’s what your emergency kit needs to ensure they stay hydrated if you have to evacuate or you lose power or water.Karleen Gribble, Adjunct Associate Professor, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Western Sydney UniversityNina Jane Chad, Post-doctoral Research Associate, Sydney School of Public Health, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.