tag:theconversation.com,2011:/nz/topics/zali-steggall-66139/articlesZali Steggall – The Conversation2022-11-29T19:10:39Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1920962022-11-29T19:10:39Z2022-11-29T19:10:39ZNetworks and money: the inside story of how the teals won Australia’s six richest electorates<p>For many voters despairing about the gridlock and lack of integrity in Australian politics in recent years, the success of the teal independents in the May 2022 federal election was an exhilarating moment. They won six formerly safe Liberal seats, returned four independents - Zali Steggall in Warringah, Helen Haines in Indi, Rebekah Sharkie in Mayo, and Andrew Wilkie in Clark - and sent David Pocock to the Senate. </p>
<p>The Victorian election last weekend was <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-the-teal-independents-be-disruptors-in-victorian-politics-191072">the first test</a> of whether the teals would have the same appeal in the states. Targeting Liberal electorates in a Labor-held state, three candidates ran a close second: Sophie Torney in Kew, Melissa Lowe in Hawthorn, and Kate Lardner in Mornington.</p>
<p>This near miss in Victoria can be attributed to a tight cap on funding, the absence of high-profile candidates, and the fact the Andrews Labor government, which was returned, was a different antagonist than <a href="https://theconversation.com/morrisons-great-electoral-bungle-leaves-the-liberals-decimated-and-heading-in-the-wrong-direction-183596">Scott Morrison’s Coalition government</a>. Teals planning to run in the New South Wales election in March 2023 will have been watching closely.</p>
<p>The extraordinary success of the teals and other community independents at a federal level has been captured in three new books: <a href="https://www.hardiegrant.com/au/publishing/bookfinder/book/the-teal-revolution-by-margot-saville/9781743799307">The Teal Revolution</a>, by Margot Saville; <a href="https://www.allenandunwin.com/browse/book/Brook-Turner-9781761067976/">Independents Day</a>, by Brook Turner; and <a href="https://publishing.monash.edu/product/the-big-teal/">The Big Teal</a>, by Simon Holmes à Court. </p>
<p>The three books provide an account of the teals’ campaigns in this historic election. As well as being compelling reads, their rich descriptions of the campaigns provide a blueprint for change that will inspire others to action. Australian politics might just be changed forever.</p>
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<p><em>Review: The Teal Revolution – Margot Saville (Hardie Grant); Independents Day – Brock Turner (Allen & Unwin); The Big Teal – Simon Holmes à Court (Monash University Publishing)</em></p>
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<h2>It’s the community, stupid</h2>
<p>The “teals”, Holmes à Court explains, was a term that emerged in the media in the weeks leading up to the election, because the phrase “community independent” was too unwieldy. Fair enough, but the shorthand gives a false impression of homogeneity, and downplays the fact that each candidate arose from separate grassroots community groups, all fed up with politics as usual. </p>
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<p>Saville and Turner provide detailed accounts of how each community group grew organically into extraordinarily successful campaigns, responding to local and universal concerns. Many of these campaigns began from the shared frustration of two or three well-connected, well-resourced neighbours utterly fed up with politics as usual. </p>
<p>Many took the name “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voices_groups_in_Australia">Voices of</a>”, building on the model devised by Cathy McGowan in <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-indi-project-who-do-indi-voters-trust-to-run-the-country-61222">Indi</a> in 2013. “Kitchen table” conversations were held in electorates around the country, awakening an enthusiasm for political engagement that had previously been suppressed by two-party dominance. </p>
<p>McGowan and Zali Steggall were the templates for the audacious vision, but just as important were the suite of independents who, over the past decade, have been able to exert their influence in parliament: Kerryn Phelps, Tony Windsor, Andrew Wilkie, Rebekah Sharkie and others. </p>
<p>The Grattan Institute report, <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/gridlock/">Gridlock</a>, on the policy impacts of two-party dominance, was another important impetus for action. The idea driving these community campaigns was not that independents could make a difference, but that they were the only way to make a difference. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-big-teal-steal-independent-candidates-rock-the-liberal-vote-183024">The big teal steal: independent candidates rock the Liberal vote</a>
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<h2>Enter the candidates</h2>
<p>Mostly, the candidates themselves did not drive their grassroots campaigns, but were actually selected by them. I was surprised how intentional this selection was. In 2018, for example, a marketing company inspired by the “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/grassroots-tony-abbott-warringah-election-independent-20181222-p50nvo.html">Vote Tony Out</a>” group in Warringah came up with a list of characteristics for a successful candidate in that electorate. </p>
<p>Turner reports that she needed to be female, with a name as memorable as Tony Abbott’s; an athlete, preferably who has represented Australia at an international level; and </p>
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<p>articulate, intelligent, respected within the community, and to have lived locally for a long time. Into that frame walked <a href="https://theconversation.com/abbotts-loss-in-warringah-shows-voters-rejecting-an-out-of-touch-candidate-and-a-nasty-style-of-politics-117379">Zali Steggall</a>.</p>
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<p>In 2021, several community groups conducted similar data-driven scouting exercises, but most candidates stepped forward after prompting by friends or networks. The mixed levels of enthusiasm revealed a lot about each candidate’s character. </p>
<p>Kylea Tink, for example, was first off the block in North Sydney, putting herself forward before “Voices of North Sydney” had taken off. Zoe Daniel’s friend Angela Pippos put Daniel’s name forward to the “Voices for Goldstein” group. Monique Ryan answered a full-page ad in The Age. Allegra Spender, the youngest of the cohort – with three young children, and perhaps the best insight into the demands of parliamentary life – took the most convincing. </p>
<p>They have not risen through the ranks of party politics, yet as highly accomplished women, they bring to parliament a full suite of skills and experience from their careers. As independents without the balance of power, there is a hard ceiling to what they can achieve personally. </p>
<p>They can be loudspeakers for their communities and shape the policy agenda, especially on climate, gender equity and political integrity, for which they have a mandate. Alongside the Greens, they strengthen the progressive end of the policy debate and provide a counterbalance to the hard right of the Coalition. Yet, they cannot aim to be a minister or hold real decision-making power. </p>
<p>Still, their influence is likely to have an impact in two main ways: by changing the tone of parliament, and by proving a model for reinvigorating Australians’ engagement in politics. </p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-teal-independents-want-to-hold-government-to-account-that-starts-with-high-quality-information-184559">The teal independents want to hold government to account. That starts with high-quality information</a>
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<h2>A grassroots campaign, or revolution of the wealthy?</h2>
<p>The prominent role of <a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-simon-holmes-a-court-on-community-independents-and-two-state-elections-190248">Simon Holmes à Court</a> and his organisation Climate 200 associates these community candidates with great wealth. He is, after all, the son of Australia’s first billionaire (although, as he quips in The Big Teal, this media tagline ignores the great influence of his mother, the extraordinary Janet Holmes à Court). </p>
<p>Clearly, the early and substantial investment from <a href="https://www.climate200.com.au/">Climate 200</a>, a donor network, helped raise the dough for 22 community campaigns around Australia, and it is quite possible that the teals wouldn’t have succeeded without it. His high profile, and willingness to take the stage to speak about the movement, is controversial among many in the movement.</p>
<p>Holmes à Court is not the only rich person in this story – in fact, Turner and Saville’s books read at times like roll-calls of wealthy, well-connected people. The cast of actors include chief executives, bankers, barristers, marketing experts, IT specialists, chief financial officers, engineers and medical specialists. </p>
<p>The most influential of those behind the scenes of the community campaigns were at a stage in their lives where they were able to pivot to a “third career”, in which they could focus their skills and resources to make political history.</p>
<p>Many were sufficiently well-off to invest $50,000 to kickstart a campaign, with a promise to double if needed, and could put their lives on hold for up to six months to run campaigns. Both Saville and Turner describe this milieu with an amusing (if somewhat gossipy) touch, dropping details of the famous art owned by one, the sale price of the harbourside mansion of another. </p>
<p>Perhaps these activists’ wealth was required to bring about change in Australia’s six richest electorates, but timing also mattered. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/fire-management-in-australia-has-reached-a-crossroads-and-business-as-usual-wont-cut-it-174696">black summer bushfires</a>, coating Sydney and Melbourne in thick smoke, brought the urgency of the climate crisis home. Also crucial was the fact that during lockdowns, whole communities learned how to use Zoom at the same time, vastly increasing attendance at town-hall style online meetings. The community campaigns were also a women’s movement, with the <a href="https://www.march4justice.org.au/">March 4 Justice</a> protests in Canberra proving an important catalyst for connection. </p>
<p>More quietly, the housing crisis also influenced the outcome, with renters in wealthy electorates <a href="https://shaunratcliffdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2022/08/macquarie-slides-2022-08-04.pdf">more likely to vote teal</a> (and in Brisbane, for the Greens) than people who owned their own home.</p>
<p>The success of independents across the country is further evidence of the appetite for change in places without water views. </p>
<p>The other success story, of course, was the way <a href="https://daile.com.au/">Dai Le</a>, the former Liberal candidate, who ran as an independent, saw off Labor heavyweight Kristina Keneally in Fowler. Near-misses in the previously safe seats of Bradfield, Wannon, Cowper, Nicholls and Groom have primed independent candidates for clinching these seats next election. Across the country, thousands of volunteers turned up or donated money. </p>
<p>As Holmes à Court writes, election campaigns are known to be for the ambitious or lonely; the independents’ campaigns were full of the fun-loving and passionate. </p>
<h2>Blueprints for change</h2>
<p>Holmes à Court’s The Big Teal makes it clear from the first line that he “wasn’t there at the beginning”. The slim, readable book is a compelling account of how he became integral to the 2022 election, and indeed, the campaign’s public face. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497445/original/file-20221127-7303-a4pd90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497445/original/file-20221127-7303-a4pd90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497445/original/file-20221127-7303-a4pd90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=946&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497445/original/file-20221127-7303-a4pd90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=946&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497445/original/file-20221127-7303-a4pd90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=946&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497445/original/file-20221127-7303-a4pd90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1189&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497445/original/file-20221127-7303-a4pd90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1189&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497445/original/file-20221127-7303-a4pd90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1189&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>It is a personal account, reflecting on his parents, his traumatic years at Geelong Grammar, and first forays into community and environmental politics. It also sets out the values of Climate 200, and explains the many ways that incumbency and two-party dominance have rigged the system for Labor and the Coalition for so long. </p>
<p>By contrast, Saville’s The Teal Revolution and Turner’s Independents Day provide blow-by-blow accounts of the campaigns, and in so doing, they provide a blueprint for success. </p>
<p>We get a rich sense of what it takes to make campaigns work: the answer is networks and money, preferably lots of both. Saville’s book is the sports-car version of the story, tightly structured and fast-paced. It was an effective decision of Saville’s to distinguish the Sydney teals from those in Melbourne and Perth, in separate chapters, to emphasise the slightly different character of the candidates and campaigns. </p>
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<p>Alone among the three, Saville’s book has several moments of hilarity: mostly at the expense of Liberal MPs who provide verbal equivalents of toddler foot-stamping throughout the campaign. They are laugh-out-loud funny because, well, we know what happened. </p>
<p>Turner’s Independents Day is a fuller and more unwieldy book, especially in the first half, as Turner explains the way the various campaigns came together. </p>
<p>It’s a fascinating insight, but there are too many accounts of actors having a decisive coffee, walk or swim, and nearly every page introduces someone new in the interconnected web of growing influence. No doubt the accounts of hundreds of others were left on the editing block. The heavy detail is not organised chronologically or geographically, and requires its readers to have a solid grasp of Australian politics since 2010. </p>
<p>While it was great to read about the many nearly successful campaigns around the country, it’s a shame that Dai Le is almost entirely absent. As a Vietnamese woman with a long history of politics, her success taking on the Labor party in a lower socio-economic electorate is a unique story and worthy of our attention. </p>
<p>Turner’s account of David Pocock’s success in the senate race indicates he is a different order of politician to the teals from Sydney, Melbourne and Perth. Pocock had just begun working with his brother on a long-planned regeneration project in Zimbabwe when he made the decision to return to Australia and pursue the Senate seat. </p>
<p>Pocock’s success means the Senate could be the target of future teals campaigns. With the balance of power, he has <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-welfare-recipients-are-potential-winners-from-pocock-twisting-albaneses-arm-195422">used his position</a> early to demand Anthony Albanese’s agreement to set up a “statutory advisory committee” to examine “the adequacy of social support payments every year before the federal budget”, before agreeing to support Labor’s industrial relations legislation. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/were-about-to-have-australias-most-diverse-parliament-yet-but-theres-still-a-long-way-to-go-183620">We're about to have Australia's most diverse parliament yet – but there's still a long way to go</a>
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<h2>Australian politics has changed</h2>
<p>Federally, it is unlikely the Coalition will win back the seats it lost to the teals. Several more electorates, held by both major parties, might fall next time around, further expanding the crossbench. It is not unthinkable that hung parliaments could become the norm, with independents from the left and right of politics.</p>
<p>The challenge for community campaigns will be how they can support high-quality candidates from a diversity of ethnic and sociocultural backgrounds. For now, at least, the two-party dominance has been cracked wide open.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192096/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Nethery does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The 2022 federal election success of the teals and other community independents has been captured in three new books. How and why did they become a political force – and what might the future hold?Amy Nethery, Senior Lecturer in Politics and Policy Studies, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1878532022-08-01T20:04:20Z2022-08-01T20:04:20ZWomen are turning the tide on climate policy worldwide, and may launch a new era for Australia<p>When the new federal parliament opened last week, a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/25/the-47th-parliament-is-the-most-diverse-ever-but-still-doesnt-reflect-australia">record number</a> of female politicians took their seats: 38% in the House of Representatives and 57% in the Senate. This changing of the guard, with women at the forefront, brings an opportunity to accelerate Australia’s efforts on climate change.</p>
<p>The major parties were virtually silent on the issues of gender equity and climate change throughout the 2022 election campaign. Yet, both issues proved to be turning points for the Australian electorate. </p>
<p>Climate change – one of the key platforms on which the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01431-4">teal candidates</a> successfully campaigned - is central to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s parliamentary agenda. <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=r6885">A bill</a> to enshrine a climate target into Australian law was among the first introduced to parliament last week. </p>
<p>Women are on the front line of climate change impacts, which makes our experiences and leadership critical at decision-making tables. From <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/mia-mottley-barbados-imf-climate-change">Barbados</a> to <a href="https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en/-//10616/prime-minister-sanna-marin-s-speech-at-the-climate-ambition-summit-12.12.2020">Finland</a>, we’ve seen women’s leadership on climate bring fair, innovative and ambitious policies. We hope a new era in Australian climate policy is upon us, too. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/domestic-violence-soars-after-natural-disasters-preventing-it-needs-to-be-part-of-the-emergency-response-151838">Domestic violence soars after natural disasters. Preventing it needs to be part of the emergency response</a>
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<h2>Women and climate change</h2>
<p>Women around the world are <a href="https://unwomen.org.au/explainer-how-gender-inequality-and-climate-change-are-interconnected/">disproportionately impacted</a> by climate change due to existing systemic inequalities. For example in Africa, when <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/04/climate-resilience-women-girls-africa/">disaster strikes</a>, women may find it more difficult to evacuate their homes as primary caregivers, be unable to read written warnings, or be overlooked in rescue attempts in favour of men.</p>
<p><a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-january-2022-understanding-the-experiences-of-women-in-disasters-lessons-for-emergency-management-planning/">Australia’s experience</a> is no exception. For example, researchers note sharp surges in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-24/domestic-violence-anticipated-spike-bushfires-crisis/11980112">domestic violence</a> in the wake of disasters, such as bushfires. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476829/original/file-20220801-22375-53yuyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Burnt trees beside a road" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476829/original/file-20220801-22375-53yuyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476829/original/file-20220801-22375-53yuyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476829/original/file-20220801-22375-53yuyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476829/original/file-20220801-22375-53yuyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476829/original/file-20220801-22375-53yuyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476829/original/file-20220801-22375-53yuyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476829/original/file-20220801-22375-53yuyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The gendered impacts of displacement from bushfires and other disasters can include increased experiences of domestic violence.</span>
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<p>Women also have a critical role to play in achieving ambitious and innovative climate action. As the <a href="https://www.gov.scot/publications/glasgow-womens-leadership-statement-gender-equality-climate-change/">Women’s Leadership statement</a> at last year’s Glasgow climate summit noted: </p>
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<p>Despite increased vulnerability to climate impacts, we recognise that women and girls have been creating and leading innovative climate solutions at all levels.</p>
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<p>There are scores of <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/climate-leadership-inspiration-womens-day-and-every-day">examples of female climate leadership</a> and the benefits that follow when women and girls are afforded the opportunity to take a lead on climate action, throughout recent history. </p>
<p>Notable examples include <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/15/christiana-figueres-climate-emergency-this-is-the-decade-the-future-we-choose">Christiana Figueres</a>, who steered international climate negotiations to a successful outcome in 2015, with the adoption of the Paris Agreement. </p>
<p>Greta Thunberg’s vigil to sit outside the Swedish Parliament every Friday protesting inadequate climate action inspired a <a href="https://fridaysforfuture.org/">youth climate protest movement</a>. </p>
<p>Other young women such as National Director of Seed Mob <a href="https://www.seedmob.org.au/our_team">Amelia Telford</a> in Australia, and Pacific Climate Warriors founding member <a href="https://womensagenda.com.au/latest/this-iwd-meet-the-young-women-holding-global-leaders-to-account-on-climate-change/">Brianna Fruean</a> are at the forefront of First Nations’ climate advocacy efforts.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Prime Minister Mia Mottley, awarded the 2021 Champion of the Earth - Policy Leadership.</span></figcaption>
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<p>An <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/women-s-leadership-in-environmental-action_f0038d22-en">OECD Working Paper</a> released this year notes that women’s participation in decision-making often leads to the development of comparatively strong and sustainable climate policies and goals. </p>
<p>Case in point, Finland, under leadership of progressive Prime Minister <a href="https://worldleaders.columbia.edu/events/ms-sanna-marin-prime-minister-republic-finland">Sanna Marin</a>, recently committed to one of the most ambitious climate targets, <a href="https://ym.fi/en/the-reform-of-the-climate-change-act">legislating</a> net zero by 2035 and carbon negative by 2040. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/barbados-pm-mottley-leads-charge-against-climate-change">Barbados</a> Prime Minister Mia Mottley aims to phase out fossil fuels by 2030 and is a passionate advocate for developing nations vulnerable to climate change. </p>
<p>In the private sector, women’s participation is also crucial. The OECD cites <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/women-s-leadership-in-environmental-action_f0038d22-en">evidence</a> that when women occupy at least 30% of board seats they bring about change to climate governance within companies. </p>
<h2>An end to Australia’s climate wars?</h2>
<p>The Australian government’s sharp focus on climate change is a far cry from the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-wars-carbon-taxes-and-toppled-leaders-the-30-year-history-of-australias-climate-response-in-brief-169545">climate wars</a>” that have been a roadblock to meaningful climate policy in this country for the past decade.</p>
<p>But Australia <a href="https://www.yalejreg.com/print/the-grass-is-not-always-greener-revisited-climate-change-regulation-amid-political-polarization/">wasn’t always</a> a problem country in international climate negotiations. At times, we’ve been a climate leader.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-wars-carbon-taxes-and-toppled-leaders-the-30-year-history-of-australias-climate-response-in-brief-169545">Climate wars, carbon taxes and toppled leaders: the 30-year history of Australia’s climate response, in brief</a>
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<p>Under Julia Gillard’s Labor government, for example, Australia was one of the first countries to introduce a <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2011A00131">national legislated carbon price in 2011</a>. This changed in 2013, when the newly elected Prime Minister Tony Abbott <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=r5311">swiftly repealed</a> this landmark law. Almost a decade of inaction on climate change by the federal government followed.</p>
<p>Signs of progress on climate change began to take shape at the 2019 federal election, when <a href="https://theconversation.com/conservative-but-green-independent-mp-zali-steggall-could-break-the-governments-climate-policy-deadlock-131644">conservative but green</a> Independent MP Zali Steggall ousted Tony Abbott from his long-held seat of Warringah. </p>
<p>The May election then brought a teal wave of female independents, along with gains for Greens and Labor women candidates. These women – such as Kate Chaney, Zoe Daniels, Monique Ryan, Sophie Scamps, Kylea Tink, Zali Steggall and Allegra Spender – are set to play a transformative role in our politics and society.</p>
<p>They campaigned on a climate and integrity platform, calling for stronger 2030 climate targets, increased renewable energy generation and passing a Climate Change Act to legislate and lock in emissions reduction targets.</p>
<p>Labor’s <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=r6885">Climate Change Bill</a> was one of the first pieces of legislation to be introduced to the new parliament, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/26/albanese-government-bolsters-climate-bill-in-attempt-to-win-support-of-teal-independents">negotiations are now well underway</a> between Labor, the Greens and the female independents to pass it.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-a-smart-way-to-push-labor-harder-on-emissions-cuts-without-reigniting-the-climate-wars-187155">There's a smart way to push Labor harder on emissions cuts – without reigniting the climate wars</a>
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<p>An <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/26/albanese-government-bolsters-climate-bill-in-attempt-to-win-support-of-teal-independents">early success</a> borne from these negotiations has been establishing that Labor’s current target – 43% emissions reduction by 2030 – is a floor, not a ceiling, for ambition. </p>
<p>Still, as <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-news-live-inflation-hits-6-1-per-cent-as-treasurer-warns-of-more-pain-to-come-negotiations-continue-over-labor-s-climate-change-bill-20220727-p5b548.html?post=p53yp1#p53yp1">Kate Chaney</a> put it in her <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-news-live-inflation-hits-6-1-per-cent-as-treasurer-warns-of-more-pain-to-come-negotiations-continue-over-labor-s-climate-change-bill-20220727-p5b548.html?post=p53yp1#p53yp1">first speech</a>, “we need to go further”. This includes addressing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/18/dutton-insurance-crossbench-mps-set-joint-demands-on-labors-climate-bill">questions</a> about accountability for achieving the target, and a mechanism to ensure future governments continue to lift their ambition.</p>
<h2>Towards a positive climate future</h2>
<p>The success of the teal independents represents the enormous groundswell of anger and frustration felt by many people who might have, in the past, <a href="https://theconversation.com/could-the-morrison-governments-response-to-sexual-assault-claims-cost-it-the-next-election-156939">voted for the Coalition government</a>.</p>
<p>This immense transformation points to the need for Australia to place gender equity, climate action and integrity at the centre of our decision-making.</p>
<p>As our national climate laws and policies take shape, we watch with anticipation to see how Albanese will navigate two houses occupied by women with strong, clear climate objectives and unprecedented support from their electorates.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/misogyny-male-rage-and-the-words-men-use-to-describe-greta-thunberg-124347">Misogyny, male rage and the words men use to describe Greta Thunberg</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187853/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Annabelle Workman received a Strategic Australian Postgraduate Award scholarship during her PhD. She is affiliated with the Climate and Health Alliance. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kathryn Bowen has received funding for climate and health research, policy advice and technical assistance from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, WHO, Asian Development Bank, UNDP, UNEP, USAID, GIZ, EU, Future Earth, City of Melbourne, Victorian Department of Health. She is affiliated with the Climate and Health Alliance as a member of the Advisory Board and sits on the Science Committee of the World Adaptation Science Program.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebekkah Markey-Towler receives funding for a PhD at the Melbourne Law School from Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jacqueline Peel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>From Barbados to Finland, we’ve seen women’s leadership on climate bring fair, innovative and ambitious policies.Jacqueline Peel, Director, Melbourne Climate Futures, The University of MelbourneAnnabelle Workman, Research Fellow, Melbourne Climate Futures, The University of MelbourneKathryn Bowen, Professor - Environment, Climate and Global Health at Melbourne Climate Futures and Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, The University of MelbourneRebekkah Markey-Towler, PhD Candidate, Melbourne Law School, and Research fellow, Melbourne Climate Futures, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1830242022-05-21T13:25:46Z2022-05-21T13:25:46ZThe big teal steal: independent candidates rock the Liberal vote<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464610/original/file-20220521-23-tvsobd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joel Carrett/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the most stunning features of the 2022 election has been the challenge from <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-teal-independents-are-seeking-liberal-voters-and-spooking-liberal-mps-182133">teal independents</a> in Liberal seats. </p>
<p>At the close of counting on Saturday, the teal independents have polled much stronger than expected, and look to have succeeded in electing a swathe of new independents to the House of Representatives. As Liberal Party commentator Tony Barry told the ABC, “the Liberals have lost their base”. It was not a blood bath, but a “teal bath”. </p>
<p>The headline story is the success of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-21/josh-frydenberg-kooyong-monique-ryan-federal-election-2022/101079684">neurologist Monique Ryan</a> who looks poised to take the blue-ribbon seat of Kooyong from Treasurer Josh Frydenberg. But teal candidates have stormed other electorates in Melbourne, Sydney, Perth and Canberra.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-teal-independents-are-seeking-liberal-voters-and-spooking-liberal-mps-182133">Why teal independents are seeking Liberal voters and spooking Liberal MPs</a>
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<h2>The teal wave</h2>
<p>When we are talking about “teals” we are talking about the 23 independent candidates, most of them women, who have challenged traditionally Liberal-held seats or Senate spots. All have received support from fundraising organisation Climate 200. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Independent Allegra Spender casts her vote in Wentworth." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464592/original/file-20220521-25-28yf2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464592/original/file-20220521-25-28yf2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464592/original/file-20220521-25-28yf2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464592/original/file-20220521-25-28yf2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464592/original/file-20220521-25-28yf2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464592/original/file-20220521-25-28yf2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464592/original/file-20220521-25-28yf2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Independent Allegra Spender casts her vote in Wentworth on Saturday.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bianca De Marchi/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Climate 200 convener Simon Holmes a Court credited the success, particularly in inner Melbourne, to a huge volunteer effort. “This community independents movement is incredible,” he told the ABC. </p>
<h2>The results so far</h2>
<p>Counting is still continuing and it needs to be noted that high numbers of postal and pre-poll votes will favour the major parties. So we will need to watch some of these seats in coming days before the results are confirmed. </p>
<p>ABC election analyst Antony Green has already given:</p>
<ul>
<li>North Sydney to independent Kylea Tink, defeating Liberal MP Trent Zimmerman </li>
<li>Mackellar to GP Sophie Scamps, defeating Liberal MP Jason Falinski</li>
<li>Goldstein to with former ABC journalist Zoe Daniel, defeating Liberal MP Tim Wilson. </li>
</ul>
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<p>Along with Kooyong, business leader Allegra Spender was ahead of Liberal MP Dave Sharma in Wentworth. </p>
<p>Independents Kate Chaney in <a href="https://www.perthnow.com.au/local-news/perthnow-western-suburbs/all-eyes-on-curtin-as-poll-puts-independent-in-the-lead-c-6840866">Perth’s Curtin</a> and Rob Priestly in <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-27966-324.htm">regional Victoria’s Nicholls</a> were also putting up a huge fight as counting closed on Saturday. Caz Heise in <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-27966-113.htm">Cowper</a> in northern NSW was also recording a strong independent vote. </p>
<p>Other independents with Climate 200 backing were also comfortably re-elected: Zali Steggall in Warringah, Helen Haines in Indi, Andrew Wilkie in Clark and Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie in Mayo. </p>
<p>Taking into account the <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/electorates/labors-kristina-keneally-faces-pressure-from-independent-dai-le/news-story/15078c55cab3e8d07d853f375222b9a9">likely election</a> of Dai Le – a non-Climate 200 independent candidate against Labor’s Kristina Keneally in Sydney’s Fowler – the independent numbers on the cross bench could double in size. </p>
<p>In the Senate, teal candidate David Pocock is in a close race for the second ACT Senate spot, with Liberal incumbent Zed Seselja. </p>
<h2>What does this mean?</h2>
<p>These results far exceed expectations before polling day. Noting the very strong results for the Greens, particularly in Queensland, we have seen an extremely clear vote for more action on climate change, more integrity in politics and more action on gender equity. These were all central planks of their campaigns. </p>
<p>Voters who would normally have voted for a moderate Liberal, but would have been unlikely to vote Labor or Greens, were given a viable choice – and they took it with both hands.</p>
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<img alt="Treasurer Josh Fydenberg adds sauce after voting in Kooyong" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464595/original/file-20220521-26-j6udx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464595/original/file-20220521-26-j6udx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464595/original/file-20220521-26-j6udx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464595/original/file-20220521-26-j6udx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464595/original/file-20220521-26-j6udx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464595/original/file-20220521-26-j6udx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464595/original/file-20220521-26-j6udx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Treasurer Josh Fydenberg adds sauce after voting in Kooyong on Saturday.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Ross/AAP</span></span>
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<p>In an election full of different results and surprises, this block of independents is going to markedly change the composition of the lower house. The precise nature of their role and power will be determined when we know if Labor will rule in a majority or minority. </p>
<p>These results also mean that the Liberal Party has been stripped of its moderate MPs.
Minister for Finance Simon Birmingham lamented the loss of his colleague Zimmerman on Saturday night, saying the party would have to “make up for the absence of those [moderate] voices”. </p>
<p>Birmingham also blamed the “contagion effect” of Katherine Deves’ <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/10/katherine-deves-backtracks-on-apology-for-comments-about-transgender-children">controversial candidacy </a> in the neighbouring seat of Warringah, arguing this has turned potential Liberal voters in other seats. It might well be argued that Deves had a similarly adverse effect on the campaigns in other long-held Liberal seats on the North Shore and surrounds, such as Mackellar and Bennelong.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-liberals-lost-the-moral-middle-class-and-now-the-teal-independents-may-well-cash-in-182293">How the Liberals lost the 'moral middle class' - and now the teal independents may well cash in</a>
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<p>But of course these results reflect something much more serious and much deeper than a preselection problem. </p>
<p>What should follow now is a period of soul-searching within the party, and a decision on how it will challenge these seats in the future. Where will be party’s base lie in the future? </p>
<p>Meanwhile a new crop of MPs have given “politics as usual” a huge shock. </p>
<p>From the beginnings of Cathy McGowan’s victory in Indi in 2013, we now have an established model for community-backed candidates to win seats in parliament. The teals will have a steep learning curve in Canberra (without the infrastructure of established parties to support them) but they have already made a difference. </p>
<p>We should expect to see similar challenges in both Labor and Liberal seats in elections to come. The Australian political system is well and truly on notice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183024/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Nethery does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australian politics will never be the same after the stunning success of teal candidates at the 2022 federal election.Amy Nethery, Senior Lecturer in Politics and Policy Studies, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1825132022-05-05T19:59:50Z2022-05-05T19:59:50ZScorched dystopia or liveable planet? Here’s where the climate policies of our political hopefuls will take us<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461493/original/file-20220505-1494-nbfd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C8%2C5551%2C3692&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Mariuz/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The federal election campaign takes place against a background of flooding on Australia’s east coast, where some <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/01/nsw-flood-victims-kicked-out-of-caravan-parks-to-make-way-for-tourists">residents</a> remain in temporary accommodation a month after the disaster. It’s just the latest reminder Australia is set to become a poster child for climate change harms.</p>
<p>Australia has warmed about <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/factsheets/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Regional_Fact_Sheet_Australasia.pdf">1.4°C since 1910</a>. With it <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/outreach/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FactSheet_Australasia.pdf">has come</a> extreme heat, bushfires, floods, drought and now, a sixth <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/mar/25/we-need-action-immediately-great-barrier-reef-authority-confirms-sixth-mass-coral-bleaching-event">huge bleaching event</a> on the Great Barrier Reef. </p>
<p>Yet meaningful climate policy debate has largely been absent from this election campaign. So Climate Analytics, a research organisation I lead, has weighed up the policies of the Coalition, Labor, the Greens and the “teal” independents. </p>
<p>We <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/2022/australian-election-2022-political-party-and-independent-climate-goals-analysis/">analysed</a> the global warming implications of each party’s or candidate’s target for 2030. </p>
<p>As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/resources/press/press-release">warns</a>, this timeframe is crucial if the world is to stay below the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Dramatic action by 2030 is also vital to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 or earlier.</p>
<p>Alarmingly, the Coalition’s climate policy is consistent with a very dangerous 3°C of global warming. Labor’s policy is slightly better, but only policies by the Greens and the “teals” are consistent with keeping global warming at or below 1.5°C.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-687" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/687/a89f5238821e47b288052a287fbfaa98d2581d3d/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The Coalition</h2>
<p>The Morrison government is pursing 26-28% emissions reduction by 2030, based on 2005 levels. If all other national governments took a similar level of action, Earth would reach at least 3°C of warming, bordering on 4°C, our analysis shows. </p>
<p>That would mean the total destruction of all tropical reefs including Ningaloo and the Great Barrier Reef. And intense heatwaves over land that currently occur about once a decade could happen almost every other year.</p>
<p>At the United Nations climate conference in Glasgow last year, the Morrison government famously refused to increase its 2030 commitments. But the final pact from the meeting, which Australia signed, requires that by November this year, governments will strengthen their 2030 targets to align with the 1.5°C goal.</p>
<p>Australia is under strong international pressure to meet this obligation, or face further <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/stupid-investment-un-chief-slams-coal-and-australia-in-extraordinary-climate-speech/">global condemnation</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="man in suit shakes hands with person in crowd" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461491/original/file-20220505-15-yssztk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461491/original/file-20220505-15-yssztk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461491/original/file-20220505-15-yssztk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461491/original/file-20220505-15-yssztk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461491/original/file-20220505-15-yssztk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461491/original/file-20220505-15-yssztk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461491/original/file-20220505-15-yssztk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Morrison government’s climate policies are consistent with global warming that would destroy the Great Barrier Reef.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Labor</h2>
<p>Labor’s target of a 43% emissions cut by 2030, from 2005 levels, is in line with 2°C of global warming. That means it’s not consistent with the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>Under 2°C of warming, extreme heat events that currently happen once a decade could occur about every three to four years. And they would reach maximum temperatures <a href="https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch">about 1.7°C hotter</a> than heatwaves in recent decades. </p>
<p>Should Earth overshoot 1.5°C warming and perhaps reach 2°C, some suggest this may be temporary and temperatures could be brought back down. This would require technologies that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. But such technologies are <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/media/temperature-overshoots_ar6.pdf">uncertain</a> and come with risks. </p>
<p>And the IPCC’s <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf">recent report</a> warned even if 1.5°C warming is exceeded temporarily, severe and potentially irreversible damage would result. The total loss of the Great Barrier Reef is just one example.</p>
<p>Under 2°C of warming the most extreme heat events that occurred once in a decade in recent times could occur about every three to four years. The heatwaves would also reach a maximum temperature 1.7°C hotter than those in recent decades.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="two men stand in front of signs" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461492/original/file-20220505-15-nbfd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461492/original/file-20220505-15-nbfd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461492/original/file-20220505-15-nbfd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461492/original/file-20220505-15-nbfd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461492/original/file-20220505-15-nbfd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461492/original/file-20220505-15-nbfd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461492/original/file-20220505-15-nbfd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Labor’s climate policy is not consistent with the Paris Agreement.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘Teal’ independents</h2>
<p>The “teals” are a group of pro-climate independent candidates.</p>
<p>Most prominent is Warringah MP Zali Steggall, whose climate change <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=r6617">bill</a> proposes a 2030 target of 60% below 2005 levels. Most climate policies of the “teals” are generally in line with the Steggall bill.</p>
<p>The target is also <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jan/26/business-council-of-australia-backs-zali-steggalls-climate-change-bill-for-2050-net-zero-target">supported by industry</a>. </p>
<p>We find this target consistent with 1.5°C of warming, and so compatible with the Paris Agreement. However, it’s at the upper end of the emission levels consistent with the 1.5°C pathway. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-teal-independents-are-seeking-liberal-voters-and-spooking-liberal-mps-182133">Why teal independents are seeking Liberal voters and spooking Liberal MPs</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="smartly-dressed woman with red background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461494/original/file-20220505-26-ypyak1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461494/original/file-20220505-26-ypyak1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461494/original/file-20220505-26-ypyak1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461494/original/file-20220505-26-ypyak1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461494/original/file-20220505-26-ypyak1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461494/original/file-20220505-26-ypyak1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461494/original/file-20220505-26-ypyak1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Zali Steggall’s climate policy is consistent with 1.5°C of warming.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bianca Di Marchi/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Greens</h2>
<p>Of all the climate policies on the table this election, the Greens target of a 74% cut by 2030, based on 2005 levels, is most comfortably consistent with keeping warming below 1.5°C.</p>
<p>That level of warming would still cause damage to Earth’s natural systems and our way of life. But it would avert significant devastation – for example, allowing parts of the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-25/ningaloo-reef-high-risk-of-coral-bleaching-from-climate-change/100935764">Ningaloo</a> and <a href="https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000004">Great Barrier</a> reefs to survive. </p>
<p>Under 1.5°C global warming, the most <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdf">extreme heat events</a> that presently occur once a decade could be limited to about every five to six years. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/polls-show-a-jump-in-the-greens-vote-but-its-real-path-to-power-lies-in-reconciling-with-labor-181705">Polls show a jump in the Greens vote – but its real path to power lies in reconciling with Labor</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The land sector problem</h2>
<p>Our calculations above do not paint a rosy picture. But they are, in fact, optimistic.</p>
<p>That’s because they include emission reductions from the land and forestry sector through such activities as tree planting and maintaining native vegetation. These so-called carbon sinks were recently described by a key insider as a “<a href="https://law.anu.edu.au/sites/all/files/what_the_beare_and_chambers_report_really_found_and_a_critique_of_its_method_16_march_2022.pdf">fraud</a>”.</p>
<p>If the land and forest sector is excluded from the analysis, the various emissions reduction targets fall considerably: to between 11% and 13% for the Coalition, 31% for Labor, 50% for the teals and 67% for the Greens. </p>
<p>What’s more, even warming limited to 1.5°C will <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FinalDraft_Chapter11.pdf">reduce</a> the capacity of the land sector to remove and store carbon.</p>
<h2>Over to you</h2>
<p>The scientific consensus is <a href="https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg3/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf">clear</a>. Greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2025 at the latest and plummet thereafter, to limit global warming to 1.5°C. </p>
<p>Unless policies are substantially strengthened, Earth is set to hit 1.5°C warming in the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/warming">2030s</a>, and a future of at least 3°C warming awaits.</p>
<p>The onus is on the next parliament to protect Australians from climate catastrophe. On May 21, Australian voters have a chance to send a clear message about the kind of world we want to leave for future generations.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/seriously-ugly-heres-how-australia-will-look-if-the-world-heats-by-3-c-this-century-157875">Seriously ugly: here's how Australia will look if the world heats by 3°C this century</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182513/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Hare receives funding from the European Climate Foundation, Climate Works Foundation, Bloomberg Philanthropy, and Solutions for Climate, a project of Climate Action Network Australia.</span></em></p>The Coalition’s climate policy is consistent with a very dangerous 3°C of global warming. But one party is comfortably consistent with keeping warming at safe levels.Bill Hare, Adjunct Professor, Murdoch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1817152022-04-21T12:12:45Z2022-04-21T12:12:45ZGrattan on Friday: Scott Morrison fails the ‘character’ test posed by his Warringah candidate<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459045/original/file-20220421-56929-nybcbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C2000%2C982&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Zali Steggall; Katherine Deves </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For months there has been a great deal of debate about Scott Morrison’s “character”.</p>
<p>Now, in the controversy over Katherine Deves, the Liberal candidate for Warringah who Morrison refused to dump despite a string of offensive social media posts, we have seen the prime minister fail a significant character test.</p>
<p>Ignoring the public and private calls by Liberals – not all of them moderates – for Deves to be disendorsed, Morrison said on Thursday, the day nominations closed, “I’ve been in contact with Katherine again today, encouraging her”. </p>
<p>Morrison has not only refused to budge, but tried to turn the argument back on his critics.</p>
<p>He condemned “those who are seeking to cancel Katherine, simply because she has a different view on the issue of women and girls in sport”, and attacked the “pile on”.</p>
<p>In a revealing comment he also said, “I think Australians are getting pretty fed up with having to walk on eggshells every day because they may or may not say something one day that’s going to upset someone”.</p>
<p>This reminded those with long memories of remarks by John Howard in the wake of the maiden speech of Pauline Hanson, who had been disendorsed by the Liberals for the 1996 election over racist remarks but won anyway.</p>
<p>“One of the great changes that have come over Australia in the last six months is that people do feel able to speak a little more freely and openly about how they feel. In a sense, a pall of censorship on certain issues has been lifted,” Howard said.</p>
<p>Howard was trying to tap into a backlash against “political correctness” – although later he had to change his tune, partly because of the feeling in urban Liberal seats. Morrison’s target is “cancel culture”. </p>
<p>Deves was Morrison’s pick. In one of the long-delayed preselections in the NSW Liberal party she was chosen by a committee of three including NSW premier Dominic Perrottet and former Liberal party federal president Chris McDiven. Morrison wanted women in as many of these seats as possible. He later said he wasn’t aware of Deves’ transphobic posts, which is extraordinary given they were recent, numerous, rumoured within the party, and basic vetting would have found them.</p>
<p>One theory has been Morrison believes Deves’ views on keeping women and girls from having to compete against transgender people in sport will resonate in certain seats. The flip side would be that he is dismissing the possible cost of her offensive tweets in “teal” seats where Liberal incumbent face high profile independents.</p>
<p>If he does think she brings wider advantage, it would be an appallingly cynical calculation, and a risky political judgement.</p>
<p>In his defence of Deves, Morrison is framing the issue in a misleading way on several fronts. It is not a case of critics wanting to “cancel” her. It is a question of whether she is a suitable candidate for the Liberals. </p>
<p>People have the right to express all sorts of unsavoury views. But to be accepted as a candidate by a major party, a person should have to pass a much higher test, because by endorsing them the party is telling the electorate their values align with its own.</p>
<p>Morrison also tries to frame Deves’ tweets as “insensitive”. They went way beyond “insensitive” – they were downright offensive.</p>
<p>He suggests she was expressing herself badly on her issue of protection women and girls in sport. But in fact her tweets go far wider.</p>
<p>As the days pass, more and more posts emerge. Sam Maiden this week on news.com.au reported Deves’ posting in 2021: “Surrogacy is a human rights violation. Women’s bodies are not vehicles for a vanity project.”</p>
<p>In another post reported by Maiden, Deves said of people who didn’t fight moves towards gender fluidity, “I have no doubt these people would imagine themselves to be part of the French Resistance in WWII - but no, they are the villagers who watched the trains go by, ignored the clouds of soot and smoke and joined the Party to get good jobs. They are complicit.’’</p>
<p>Morrison says Deves apologised for her posts. But was that the easy way out? It’s a bit hard to see this as a major change of heart, given the posts were multiple and recent. </p>
<p>The row over Deves could have major implications in particular for the fights in two Liberal Sydney seats, North Sydney (Trent Zimmerman) and Wentworth (Dave Sharma), where there are high profile "teal” candidates. Deves came up in the debate between Sharma and teal independent Allegra Spender on Thursday. </p>
<p>Also, it’s hard to see how she can campaign effectively in Warringah, held by independent Zali Steggall. The Liberals were never expected to have much chance of dislodging Steggall – now she is considered a shoo-in.</p>
<p>It is instructive to compare Morrison’s obduracy over Deves and his reaction when he came under attack after Wednesday’s “people’s forum” over saying he and Jenny had been “blessed” to have children that did not have autism.</p>
<p>He was answering a question about the NDIS from the mother of an autistic child.</p>
<p>His remark got a strong reaction on social media, including from Dylan Alcott, disability advocate and Australian of the Year. “Woke up this morning feeling very blessed to be disabled – I reckon my parents are pretty happy about it too,” Alcott tweeted.</p>
<p>Morrison swung into action with a public apology, and was in contact with Alcott.</p>
<p>“I meant no offence by what I said last night, but I accept that it has caused offence to people,” he said. </p>
<p>He said he had been simply saying it was tough and these were hardships he and Jenny hadn’t had to deal with. </p>
<p>That indeed, was the interpretation many people would have taken from Morrison’s remarks (especially as he has often spoken of his brother-in-law, who has a disability). Others would see the line as insensitive and out of touch, especially in today’s context of how we discuss disability.</p>
<p>Whatever one’s interpretation of his “blessed” remark, it is extraordinary Morrison would deal with that immediately but hang onto and encourage a candidate whose comments were a hundred times more offensive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181715/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There has been a great deal of debate about Scott Morrison’s ‘character’. Now, in the controversy over Liberal candidate Katherine Deves, we have seen the prime minister fail a significant character test.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1810582022-04-18T19:57:44Z2022-04-18T19:57:44ZClimate policy in 2022 is no longer a political bin-fire – but it remains a smouldering issue for voters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458079/original/file-20220414-21-r72kil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C0%2C5542%2C3709&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Ross/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As far as political debate goes, this federal election seems to be less about climate change than any in the past 15 years. Unlike in 2010, 2013 and 2016 – when governments were elected and leaders deposed over climate policy – this time there’s no brutal contest over the issue.</p>
<p>There are no calls for emissions trading schemes, no Greens <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bob-brown-s-convoy-hurt-labor-says-richard-di-natale-20191006-p52y1e.html">cavalcade</a> into Queensland’s coal-mining hinterland, and no Labor <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/adani-could-cost-labor-victory-on-may-18-20190509-p51lk5">prevarication</a> over the Adani coal mine. The election is shaping up as a contest over other issues – leadership integrity, crisis management, economic nous and the cost of living. </p>
<p>Even so, and although overshadowed by the COVID pandemic, the current term of government has been framed by extreme climate events – first the Black Summer bushfires and, more recently, floods. </p>
<p>In 2019, climate change determined how <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0248268">about 13%</a> of Australians voted. And while it’s early days in the campaign, <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7633277/climate-health-top-your-concerns-going-into-federal-election-campaign/">several</a> <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/federal-election/aussie-voters-want-climate-action-what-could-decide-key-seats/news-story/32dbb1ba3c3228facb5bb65cb8c3478c">polls</a> suggest climate change remains a defining issue for voters this time around. If they’re right, the Coalition is in trouble. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="firefighter holds head while lying down" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440578/original/file-20220113-13-xa4qd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440578/original/file-20220113-13-xa4qd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440578/original/file-20220113-13-xa4qd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440578/original/file-20220113-13-xa4qd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440578/original/file-20220113-13-xa4qd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440578/original/file-20220113-13-xa4qd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440578/original/file-20220113-13-xa4qd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Voters will not easily forget the trauma of the Black Summer fires.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Mariuz</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Climate emergencies fuel climate anxiety</h2>
<p>Public anxiety over future climate damage is growing. The Lowy Institute <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/climatepoll-2021">has found</a> 60% of Australians now say global warming is a significant and pressing problem. The same poll showed 55% of Australians say the government’s energy policy should prioritise “reducing carbon emissions” – up eight points since 2019. </p>
<p>We can expect the climate vote to be driven by several factors. They include: personal experience of disaster and recovery, Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s leadership on the issue, the government’s performance in reducing emissions, power prices and energy security, and competing parties’ credibility and promises on climate action.</p>
<p>There is mixed evidence on how extreme weather affects voting intentions. For example, while <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358447878_Climate_change_experiences_raise_environmental_concerns_and_promote_Green_voting">some</a> studies say it benefits parties with greener policies, <a href="https://theconversation.com/research-shows-voters-favour-financial-relief-after-disasters-but-we-need-climate-action-too-179028">others</a> indicate voters prioritise economic security after a disaster.</p>
<p>But the Morrison government has also been accused of <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-accept-the-criticism-scott-morrison-apologises-for-family-holiday-20191222-p53m6o.html">weak leadership</a> during recent disasters and being <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/history-repeating-morrison-too-slow-on-a-natural-disaster-20220309-p5a37f.html">too slow</a> to deliver assistance afterwards. Such perceptions, particularly in disaster-hit areas, are likely to weigh heavily against the government.</p>
<p>The election, of course, will not be decided on the overall swing, but what happens in marginal seats and those where credible independent candidates – many of them with climate action high on their agendas – pose a real threat to incumbents. </p>
<p>Some 25 electorates are likely to determine the next government. The 2019 election was only narrowly won by the Coalition and it <a href="https://www.anu.edu.au/news/all-news/marginal-seats-what-are-they-and-why-do-they-matter">currently holds</a> nine seats on a margin of less than 4%. Labor holds 14 marginal seats and independents hold two. </p>
<p>Seven of these seats were hard hit by the Black Summer fires and this year’s floods. Five are marginal seats held by the ALP – Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Macquarie and Gilmore in NSW, and Lilley in Queensland. </p>
<p>If the fires and floods do swing votes this election, they’re likely to secure Labor incumbents in these seats.</p>
<p>The other two – Page in NSW and Gippsland in Victoria – are safe Nationals seats and likely to remain so.</p>
<p>Independents campaigning on climate policy look set to challenge Liberal supremacy in three urban seats: <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-chill-winds-of-change-and-the-battle-for-goldstein-s-golden-mile-20220407-p5absh.html">Goldstein</a> in Victoria, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/27/allegra-spender-wentworth-independent-hopeful-says-climate-action-is-vital-for-economy">Wentworth</a> and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/meet-the-liberal-party-s-latest-problem-a-climate-driven-independent-20210917-p58sjz.html">North Sydney</a> in NSW.</p>
<p>Meanwhile Zali Steggall, an incumbent climate independent, looks secure in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/10/nsw-liberals-reopen-nominations-in-warringah-in-race-to-find-candidate-to-run-against-zali-steggall">Warringah</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="woman stands in fornt of climate protest signs" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458082/original/file-20220414-20-hkguuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458082/original/file-20220414-20-hkguuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458082/original/file-20220414-20-hkguuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458082/original/file-20220414-20-hkguuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458082/original/file-20220414-20-hkguuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458082/original/file-20220414-20-hkguuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458082/original/file-20220414-20-hkguuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Pro-climate independent Zali Steggall looks set for re-election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marion Rae/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>A credibility problem</h2>
<p>Scott Morrison has a climate credibility problem. Having defined himself while treasurer by brandishing a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/feb/09/scott-morrison-brings-coal-to-question-time-what-fresh-idiocy-is-this">lump of coal</a> in Parliament, as prime minister he’s been accused of lacking empathy for victims of climate disasters.</p>
<p>Morrison’s trip to Hawaii during the Black Summer fires continues to haunt his reputation. And given the ongoing sensitivities around his disaster responsiveness, his government’s assistance after the recent floods was surprisingly sluggish.</p>
<p>Australia’s low climate policy ambition and persistent refusal to increase its 2030 emissions target saw it branded a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-australian-way-how-morrison-trashed-brand-australia-at-cop26-171670">laggard</a> at last year’s crucial United Nations climate summit in Glasgow.</p>
<p>The government has sought to claim credit for Australia’s success in reducing emissions from the energy sector. But most momentum derives from <a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-has-joined-china-south-korea-and-japan-as-climate-leaders-now-its-time-for-the-rest-of-australia-to-follow-149731">state and territory</a> policies, and private investment – coupled with the <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Political-Economy-of-Coal-Obstacles-to-Clean-Energy-Transitions/Jakob-Steckel/p/book/9780367491024">dynamism</a> and market competitiveness of the renewable energy sector itself.</p>
<p>And federal plans for a “<a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/gas-fired-recovery">gas-fired recovery</a>” from the pandemic make no <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-10/gas-led-recovery-likely-to-be-a-mirage/12843276">economic</a> or <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-biggest-fossil-fuel-investment-for-a-decade-is-in-the-works-and-its-greenhouse-gas-emissions-will-be-horrifying-172955">ecological</a> sense.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-australian-way-how-morrison-trashed-brand-australia-at-cop26-171670">'The Australian way': how Morrison trashed brand Australia at COP26</a>
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<h2>Promises, promises</h2>
<p>The road to elections is paved with broken old promises and lit by bright new ones (see table below). </p>
<p>The crucial indicator is the short-term national emissions target. The Coalition is sticking with a 26-28% reduction on 2005 levels by 2030. Labor is aiming for a 43% cut in the same period. The Greens and independents want more, and would legislate their targets. </p>
<p>While the Coalition has no renewable energy target, Labor is promising renewables will comprise 82% of the national grid by 2030.</p>
<p>But how will they get there? This year’s federal budget – which barely mentioned climate change – outline the Coalition’s express commitments. It provides funding for liquified natural gas production, <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news/federal-budget-fails-to-prioritise-rapid-transition-to-renewable-energy">but no</a> declining funding for renewable energy.</p>
<p>The budget also <a href="https://budget.gov.au/2022-23/content/bp1/download/bp1_bs5.pdf">offers</a> $12.3 billion for road infrastructure and $3.7 billion for rail next year. But there’s little for electric vehicles – crucial for cutting transport emissions and fuel costs. </p>
<p>Labor is promising <a href="https://alp.org.au/policies/rewiring_the_nation">$20 billion</a> for powergrid upgrades and renewables, <a href="https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/labor-solar-batteries-mb2262/">$200 million</a> for solar banks and community batteries, and a <a href="https://www.alp.org.au/policies/electric_car_discount/">discount scheme</a> for electric cars.</p>
<p>Seeking to repair Australia’s international reputation, Labor is also offering to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/clear-message-labor-promises-to-bid-to-host-global-climate-change-summit-if-elected-20220405-p5aaz8.html">host</a> a future United Nations climate conference, which traditionally serves to enhance the host nation’s domestic performance.</p>
<p>But tellingly, neither major party mentions fossil <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-net-zero-plan-fails-to-tackle-our-biggest-contribution-to-climate-change-fossil-fuel-exports-170646">fuel exports</a> – the overwhelming and growing contributor to Australia’s global carbon footprint. </p>
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<iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/9387137/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
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<h2>What will the next term bring?</h2>
<p>Obviously, we don’t yet know the persuasion of the next government – nor whether it will rely on support from minor parties and independents. </p>
<p>But we <em>do</em> know it will confront growing pressure for tougher climate targets and action – from the electorate, our international peers and the rising number of climate-related legal challenges.</p>
<p>As this month’s <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">report</a> from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicates, extreme events will inevitably intensify and require more, and better coordinated, responses. </p>
<p>Ever more forcefully, we can expect global warming to continue shaping Australia’s political landscape.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-morrison-government-is-set-to-finally-announce-a-2050-net-zero-commitment-heres-a-to-do-list-for-each-sector-170099">The Morrison government is set to finally announce a 2050 net-zero commitment. Here's a 'to do' list for each sector</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181058/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Christoff is a member of the not-for-profit group Environment Victoria, and was previously affiliated with the Australian Conservation Foundation and the Victorian Greens.</span></em></p>Notwithstanding COVID, this political term has been framed by extreme events such as the Black Summer bushfires and floods – and it will show at the ballot box.Peter Christoff, Senior Research Fellow and Associate Professor, Melbourne Climate Futures initiative, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1733462021-12-07T09:32:02Z2021-12-07T09:32:02ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Labor’s climate policy and the Liberals’ fight for Warringah<p>As well as Michelle Grattan’s usual interviews with experts and politicians about the news of the day, Politics with Michelle Grattan now includes “Word from The Hill”, where all things political will be discussed with members of The Conversation’s politics team.</p>
<p>This week Michelle and politics editor Amanda Dunn discuss Labor’s newly announced climate policy, with its target of 43% emissions reduction by 2030, including how this plan differs from the Coalition’s target and the support it has from key business groups. </p>
<p>They also canvass the push for former NSW premier Gladys Berejilikan to run for the federal election in a bid to win the seat of Warringah back from independent Zali Steggall. This move, if it goes ahead, is controversial as there is still an ongoing ICAC investigation into Berejiklian’s conduct. </p>
<p>The United States has announced it will implement a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Winter Olympics, with speculation the Morrison government will follow the lead of the US. This boycott is over human rights in China. This is a diplomatic gesture rather than a full boycott – the athletes would still attend.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173346/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan discusses politics with politics + society editor, Amanda DunnMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1732622021-12-06T09:47:24Z2021-12-06T09:47:24ZView from The Hill: Running Berejiklian ahead of ICAC report would send the worst of signals on integrity<p>Labor’s Chris Bowen made a very pertinent contribution on Monday to the debate over whether the Liberals should run Gladys Berejiklian, the subject of an ICAC investigation, in the Sydney seat of Warringah.</p>
<p>What would the Liberals and the media be saying if it were a Labor figure in a similar position? Bowen asked.</p>
<p>Of course we know the answer. They’d be outraged and they’d be justified.</p>
<p>The push within the Liberal party, backed by Scott Morrison, for Berejiklian to stand is a case of the “whatever it takes” brand of politics.</p>
<p>The Liberals are desperate to get this seat back from independent Zali Steggall. And they are spurred by the continued high popularity of Berejiklian. The polling and focus groups tell them people think she was a good premier, and has been hard done by.</p>
<p>She’s probably the only Liberal who would be competitive with Steggall, who’s dug in solidly since she ousted Tony Abbott in 2019.</p>
<p>The close of nominations for Liberal preselection for Warringah has been delayed from last Friday until January 14 to give the former premier time to make a decision.</p>
<p>The ICAC won’t bring down its finding before then, so if Berejiklian ran there’d be a cloud hanging over her.</p>
<p>Behind the scenes, some indication will come before Christmas about how things are likely to go, when counsel assisting the ICAC present their submissions to the parties and the commissioner.</p>
<p>But while this could be important in Berejiklian making up her mind, the material won’t be public. If she ran, the speculation about it would be rife, which would surely be unhelpful.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/berejiklian-says-maguire-was-part-of-her-love-circle-but-was-not-significant-enough-to-declare-will-this-wash-with-icac-170860">Berejiklian says Maguire was part of her 'love circle' but was not significant enough to declare – will this wash with ICAC?</a>
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<p>Morrison has this week returned to attacking the ICAC over Berejiklian’s treatment. In the recent parliamentary sitting he denounced this as “an absolute disgrace”. “The Australian people know that the former premier of New South Wales was done over by a bad process and an abuse of process,” he said.</p>
<p>On Monday he said her treatment had been “shameful”. There was no suggestion she’d done anything criminal, he said, and he found the playing of intimate conversations she had (with then secret boyfriend, Daryl Maguire) “just awful”.</p>
<p>Morrison’s opposition to giving a national integrity commission the right to hold public hearings was adamant during recent government discussions, which ended with no legislation being introduced into federal parliament.</p>
<p>Morrison said Berejiklian was “put in a position of actually having to stand down and there was no finding of anything. Now I don’t call that justice.”</p>
<p>Without saying it explicitly he creates the impression the ICAC forced her to quit her job. In fact, she chose to resign, judging that just standing aside while the inquiry was on was politically untenable.</p>
<p>Steggall on Monday pushed back strongly against Morrison, saying the words he’d used in parliament were “outrageous”. “We should be seeing leadership to raise trust, call for more accountability, not undermine accountability.”</p>
<p>The ICAC is investigating whether Berejiklian breached public trust in relation to two grants awarded to the electorate of Wagga Wagga, then held by Maguire. It is also inquiring into whether her conduct “was liable to allow or encourage” corrupt conduct by Maguire. </p>
<p>Berejiklian, when she was treasurer and then premier, did not disclose to her colleagues her close personal relationship with Maguire, and has defended her failure to do so, arguing “I didn’t feel it was of sufficient standing”.</p>
<p>The PM and some other Liberals dismiss her lapse basically on the grounds that here was a woman who’d just had a bad boyfriend.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/women-play-a-critical-role-in-diplomacy-and-security-so-why-arent-more-in-positions-of-power-170875">Women play a critical role in diplomacy and security, so why aren't more in positions of power?</a>
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<p>In Morrison’s view integrity bodies should not be looking at “who your boyfriend is”, as he put in in parliament.</p>
<p>Leaving aside the rather patronising attitude this implies – the gullible woman as an explanation – it doesn’t wash in terms of political ethics. If you are premier, your relationships are relevant. With this relationship, private life impinged on public life.</p>
<p>Does Morrison really think it was okay for Berejiklian not to disclose her closeness to Maguire, who was well known as an urger of the first degree? </p>
<p>That certainly wasn’t the view of former NSW premier Mike Baird, a good friend of Berejiklian, who said in evidence at the ICAC “certainly I think [the relationship] should have been disclosed”. Baird is another high profile figure the Liberals have pursued to stand in Warringah, but without success.</p>
<p>If the Liberals fielded Berejiklian ahead of the ICAC report, they would be adding insult to injury in their performance on integrity issues.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173262/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There is a push within the Liberal party, backed by Scott Morrison, for former NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian to run for the seat of Warringah. As the Liberals are desperate to get this seat back from independent Zali Steggall.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1574272021-03-18T08:55:54Z2021-03-18T08:55:54ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Zali Steggall on Monday’s march and Scott Morrison’s response<p>On Monday, women across the nation marched, demanding justice, safety and equality. But the government’s response was lacklustre, with Scott Morrison and the Minister for Women Marise Payne refusing to go outside to the crowd. </p>
<p>Morrison later chose his words badly when he said: “Not far from here, such marches, even now are being met with bullets, but not here in this country”.</p>
<p>Independent MP Zali Steggall described Morrison’s comments as “incredibly sad” and “just stunning”.</p>
<p>A former lawyer and olympian, Steggall is currently championing two private member’s bills - a proposal for a national climate change framework, and an amendment to the sex discrimination act which would allow judges, MPs, and statutory appointees to be prosecuted for sexual harassment.</p>
<p>Steggall is disappointed in the government’s response to the strong push for women’s rights. “I’ve been quite baffled to understand the Prime Minister’s response to this situation and the [rape] allegations.”</p>
<p>And she doesn’t believe Payne has been much better. “I’ve been absolutely, really disappointed with the minister for women’s response.”</p>
<p>She is somewhat more encouraged by the government’s changing attitude towards climate change, noting Morrison’s language has changed “dramatically” in the last 12 months. But simply saying he wants to get to net zero “as soon as possible” is not good enough, she says.</p>
<p>“That’s not the certainty that business and the private sector are looking for. They are looking for it to be legislated, and with a clear pathway.”</p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/politics-with-michelle-grattan/id703425900?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233721/original/file-20180827-75984-1gfuvlr.png" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL2F1L3BvZGNhc3RzL3BvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbWljaGVsbGUtZ3JhdHRhbi5yc3M"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation-4/politics-with-michelle-grattan"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> <a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/Politics-with-Michelle-Grattan-p227852/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://radiopublic.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-WRElBZ"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/5NkaSQoUERalaLBQAqUOcC"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237984/original/file-20180925-149976-1ks72uy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" width="268" height="82"></a> </p>
<h2>Additional audio</h2>
<p><a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score/Lee_Rosevere_-_The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score_-_10_A_List_of_Ways_to_Die">A List of Ways to Die</a>, Lee Rosevere, from Free Music Archive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157427/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle discusses the culture of parliament house, and climate change, with independent MP Zali Steggall.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1497282020-11-09T19:08:09Z2020-11-09T19:08:09ZZali Steggall’s new climate change bill comes just as economic sectors step up<p>Yesterday, Zali Steggall, the independent member for Warringah, introduced her long-awaited <a href="https://climateactnow.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/CAN-Climate-Change-National-Framework-for-Adaptation-and-Mitigation-Bill-2020.pdf">climate change bill</a> to the Australian parliament. </p>
<p>Much of the debate around the bill centres on what needs to be done for Australia to reach <a href="https://theconversation.com/conservative-but-green-independent-mp-zali-steggall-could-break-the-governments-climate-policy-deadlock-131644">net zero emissions</a> by 2050. That’s a crucial discussion — but it’s equally vital to recognise what’s already been committed.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/conservative-but-green-independent-mp-zali-steggall-could-break-the-governments-climate-policy-deadlock-131644">Conservative but green independent MP Zali Steggall could break the government’s climate policy deadlock</a>
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<p>Our project, the <a href="https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/net-zero/">Net Zero Momentum Tracker</a>, monitors Australia’s journey towards net zero emissions, tracking climate commitments and progress in key sectors of the economy. This includes <a href="https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/resource/net-zero-momentum-tracker-superannuation-sector/">superannuation</a>, <a href="https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/resource/net-zero-momentum-tracker-transport-report/">transport</a>, <a href="https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/resource/net-zero-momentum-tracker-retail-report/">retail</a>, <a href="https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/resource/net-zero-momentum-tracker-property-sector-report/">property</a> and <a href="https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/resource/net-zero-momentum-tracker-local-government-report/">local government</a>, and a forthcoming analysis of the resources sector.</p>
<p>We’ve found progress is, in general, going well. These sectors are increasingly making more climate-active commitments, which means the moment is right for precisely the kind of pivot Steggall’s bill seeks to facilitate.</p>
<h2>What the climate change bill proposes</h2>
<p>Steggall has garnered huge support outside of politics. In a <a href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/brains/pages/495/attachments/original/1604717867/Joint_letter_to_Members_of_Parliament.pdf?1604717867">joint letter</a> this week, more than 100 Australian businesses, industry groups and community organisations endorsed the bill as a critical step in the recovery from the pandemic. </p>
<p>This included Oxfam, the Business Council of Australia, the ACTU, the Australian Medical Association and our organisation, ClimateWorks Australia</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1325651363787763712"}"></div></p>
<p>Along with the 2050 target, the bill proposes the establishment of an independent Climate Change Commission. It also adopts the government’s low emissions technology roadmap and would require the government to introduce risk assessment and adaptation plans.</p>
<p>To reach the 2050 target, the bill calls for a process to review the target every five years, and ensure independent advice on five-yearly emissions budgets. </p>
<p>An emissions budget sets the amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted over five-year periods — in line with requirements for the Paris Agreement on climate. This is important because the amount of global warming depends on cumulative emissions, not emissions in any one year. </p>
<h2>Tracking the sectors</h2>
<p>Australia can no longer consider a commitment to a net zero target as a matter of ideology or a moral gesture. Increasingly, it’s simple economic common sense, especially for investors.</p>
<p>In 2019, Geoff Summerhayes from the <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/apra-asic-unite-on-all-pervading-climate-risk-20190508-p51l8i">Australian Prudential Regulation Authority</a> pointed out that climate change now constitutes “a legally foreseeable risk facing many different companies in a range of different industries”. As such, the financial sector has an obligation to act.</p>
<p>In 2020, the level of ambition in the superannuation sector rose considerably, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-02/rest-super-commits-to-net-zero-emmissions/12840204">with REST super</a> now joining Cbus, HESTA and UniSuper with net zero pledges.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/super-funds-are-feeling-the-financial-heat-from-climate-change-146191">Super funds are feeling the financial heat from climate change</a>
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<p>Similarly, the recent ANZ <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-29/anz-climate-policy-steps-away-from-coal-toward-carbon-neutrality/12825934">announcement</a> of “strong action to support the Paris Agreement” signals that all the major banks and insurers are moving away from thermal coal, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/solar-is-now-the-cheapest-electricity-in-history-report-says/12767310">as the International Energy Agency declares</a> solar energy to be the cheapest source of electricity in history.</p>
<p>Certainly, some sectors of the Australian economy are moving faster than others. Our analysis of <a href="https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/resource/net-zero-momentum-tracker-property-sector-report/">21 major property companies</a> found 90% had set an emissions reduction target, while nearly a third were already committed to net zero. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/resource/net-zero-momentum-tracker-local-government-report/">local government sector</a> is equally proactive. Over a third of the largest local governments we assessed (representing a fifth of the Australian population) have committed to reaching zero community emissions by or before 2050. </p>
<p>And more than half are acting to reduce their operational (or direct) emissions by, for instance, installing solar panels and switching their vehicle fleet to electric vehicles.</p>
<p>By contrast, our analysis showed <a href="https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/resource/net-zero-momentum-tracker-retail-report/">the retail</a> and <a href="https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/resource/net-zero-momentum-tracker-transport-report/">transport sectors</a> have a long way to go before they’re aligned with net zero.</p>
<h2>Asking ‘how’, not ‘why’</h2>
<p>Even in a historically difficult sector like resources, progress is being made.</p>
<p>BHP, for instance, <a href="https://www.bhp.com/-/media/documents/investors/annual-reports/2020/200910_bhpclimatechangereport2020.pdf">now says it can flourish under conditions</a> compatible with the Paris Agreement. Rather than posing a problem for business, action to decarbonise the global economy will, it declares, present “opportunities to invest in commodities such as potash, nickel and copper”, which will “provide a strong foundation” for its business.</p>
<p>This shows when it comes to net zero many of Australia’s biggest companies no longer ask “why”, but instead focus on “how”.</p>
<p>In part, that’s because businesses that don’t change know they increasingly risk isolation. </p>
<p>For example, the International Energy Agency said in <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2020">its annual report</a> that demand for Australian thermal coal has peaked, and renewables will meet 80% of the world’s energy demands in the coming years. </p>
<p>Japan, South Korea and the European Union have committed to reaching net zero by 2050, and US President-elect <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-says-the-us-will-rejoin-the-paris-climate-agreement-in-77-days-then-australia-will-really-feel-the-heat-149533">Joe Biden</a> says his administration will make the same pledge. China also <a href="https://theconversation.com/china-just-stunned-the-world-with-its-step-up-on-climate-action-and-the-implications-for-australia-may-be-huge-147268">recently committed</a> to reaching net zero by 2060. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-says-the-us-will-rejoin-the-paris-climate-agreement-in-77-days-then-australia-will-really-feel-the-heat-149533">Biden says the US will rejoin the Paris climate agreement in 77 days. Then Australia will really feel the heat</a>
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<p>That means the vast majority of Australia’s exports are going to trading partners who have committed to transform their economies. </p>
<p>This will result in a shift in demand from high-carbon products and services, such as thermal coal, towards zero or near zero carbon alternatives, such as renewable hydrogen.</p>
<h2>An opportunity, not a threat</h2>
<p>Such a demand also presents extraordinary opportunities. The international transition to cleaner economies is a chance for Australia to become <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/australia-could-fall-apart-under-climate-change-or-it-could-be-a-renewable-superpower-32080/">a renewable energy superpower</a>.</p>
<p>After all, <a href="https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Recover-and-Reduce_Prudent-investments-to-boost-the-economy-and-lower-emissions_Sept2020.pdf">Australia possesses</a> the world’s third-largest reserves of lithium and currently produces nine of the ten elements required for lithium-ion batteries. </p>
<p>Likewise, by 2030, Australia could be using renewable electricity and water to produce <a href="https://arena.gov.au/assets/2018/08/opportunities-for-australia-from-hydrogen-exports.pdf">500,000 tonnes</a> of green hydrogen annually, one of the most important commodities of the transition into a clean economy.</p>
<h2>Providing certainty to businesses</h2>
<p>In tracking the momentum to net zero, we’ve seen the importance of clear targets in raising ambition, encouraging innovation and fostering the deployment of known solutions quickly and at scale. </p>
<p>And a parliamentary commitment to decarbonisation at the federal level, backed by interim targets set every five years, would provide businesses and the public with the certainty they need to plan.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-uk-has-a-national-climate-change-act-why-dont-we-115230">The UK has a national climate change act – why don't we?</a>
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<p>Many other countries, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-uk-has-a-national-climate-change-act-why-dont-we-115230">such as Britain</a>, already have their own climate change acts. So, too, does <a href="https://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/legislation/climate-change-act-2017">the state of Victoria</a>.</p>
<p>Across the country, all the state and territory governments have made net zero commitments – and our assessment of local governments found many of them to be taking strong stands, too. It’s time for the federal parliament to get on board.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149728/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Malos is part of ClimateWorks Australia which receives funding from philanthropy and project-based income from federal, state and local government and private sector organisations.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>ClimateWorks Australia receives funding from several philanthropic foundations, and project-specific financial support from a range of private and public entities.</span></em></p>From property to local government, economic sectors are meeting the climate change challenge head on. Now the federal government must get on board.Anna Malos, Project Manager, climate and energy policy, Climateworks CentreAmandine Denis-Ryan, Head of National Programs, ClimateWorks Australia, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1482522020-11-02T19:06:51Z2020-11-02T19:06:51ZAustralia, the climate can’t wait for the next federal election. It’s time to take control<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366020/original/file-20201028-23-1pv8210.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C3%2C2029%2C1361&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">STEVEN SAPHORE/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It is difficult to know what to do when governments fail us. But there’s no need to wait until the next election to deal with the climate crisis, we can act now. </p>
<p>An overwhelming majority of Australians want action on climate change. And the federal government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic shows governments can act decisively and effectively on imminent threats. But on climate action, there is a lack of political will. </p>
<p>So in the absence of federal leadership, what should be done? And who must do what? </p>
<p>Those questions are already being answered by state governments, councils, researchers, entrepreneurs and financiers who understand the climate problem. Their actions are slowing our slide to disaster – but they need others to step up.</p>
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<img alt="Scott Morrison holds a lump of coal in QuestionTime" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366021/original/file-20201028-19-17eq2p6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366021/original/file-20201028-19-17eq2p6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366021/original/file-20201028-19-17eq2p6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366021/original/file-20201028-19-17eq2p6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366021/original/file-20201028-19-17eq2p6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366021/original/file-20201028-19-17eq2p6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366021/original/file-20201028-19-17eq2p6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">There is an absence of will in federal parliament to deal with climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>States are filling the gap</h2>
<p>Among the most important entities in climate action in Australia are the state and territory governments. <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-act-is-now-running-on-100-renewable-electricity">The ACT</a> was the first to eliminate fossil fuels for electricity generation. Tasmania is <a href="https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2020/03/05/climate-policy-done-right-tasmania-sets-200-re-target-by-2040/">on track</a> to be there by 2022, and has now set a 200% renewable energy target by 2040, with the additional clean energy to be used to produce hydrogen. </p>
<p>South Australia is also <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/south-australia-on-track-to-100-pct-renewables-as-regulator-comes-to-party-96366/">set to be</a> powered solely by renewables by the 2030s. These jurisdictions show what can be done in Australia if there’s a political will, and successive governments stick with a plan. </p>
<p>Some larger states are catching up fast. New South Wales has recently gone from being one of the worst performers to among the best. The Berejiklian government has a <a href="https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/topics/climate-change/net-zero-plan">ten-year plan</a> to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, and the first stage prioritises the uptake of <a href="https://thedriven.io/2020/03/16/nsw-net-zero-plan-lays-out-path-for-more-electric-vehicles/">electric vehicles</a>. It will change building codes to make it cheaper and easier to install electric charging points, encourage the uptake of electric vehicles by fleets, and change licensing and parking regulations to encourage their uptake. </p>
<p>If the states worked together to pursue the most ambitious targets and programs, Australia could do its bit to solve the climate problem.</p>
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<img alt="Wind farm near the ACT" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366026/original/file-20201028-17-1efsjps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366026/original/file-20201028-17-1efsjps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366026/original/file-20201028-17-1efsjps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366026/original/file-20201028-17-1efsjps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366026/original/file-20201028-17-1efsjps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366026/original/file-20201028-17-1efsjps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366026/original/file-20201028-17-1efsjps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The ACT now runs on 100% renewable energy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>Going local</h2>
<p>Australia’s local councils have become powerhouses of innovative climate solutions. In June 2017 I attended the Climate Council’s <a href="https://citiespowerpartnership.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/CPP-Pledge-Report_LR.pdf">Cities Power Partnership</a> at Parliament House in Canberra. Some 34 mayors and councillors attended, and I listened with interest as one after another described the projects they were working on. </p>
<p>The breadth was astonishing, from promoting bulk buys of solar panels for disadvantaged residents to making low-carbon road surfaces at local plants. Many councils were planting trees, assisting with energy efficiency measures or converting waste to energy. Since that first meeting the Cities Power Partnership has grown hugely. It now includes <a href="https://citiespowerpartnership.org.au">more than 120</a> local governments, representing half of all Australians. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/people-power-everyday-australians-are-building-their-own-renewables-projects-and-you-can-too-146885">People power: everyday Australians are building their own renewables projects, and you can too</a>
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<p>It is not just Australia’s local councils forging ahead with climate action. Individual households lead the world in producing clean energy. More than <a href="https://arena.gov.au/renewable-energy/solar/">two million households</a> — 21% of the nation’s total — have now installed solar panels. This, of course, was supported by the federal government’s renewable energy target. But it wouldn’t have happened without Australians paying good money for their rooftop solar panels.</p>
<p>Movements aimed at building momentum will doubtless continue. In September 2019, hundreds of thousands marched during the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/20/hundreds-of-thousands-attend-school-climate-strike-rallies-across-australia">school climate strikes</a>. The movement grew from a one-person protest by Swedish activist <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49918719">Greta Thunberg</a>, which took place just a year earlier. In Australia <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-20/school-strike-for-climate-draws-thousands-to-australian-rallies/11531612">the crowds</a> were unprecedented, as was their passion.</p>
<p>The demonstrations have had limited impact on the federal government, but people are also organising in different ways. <a href="https://ausrebellion.earth">Extinction Rebellion</a>, an group just two years old, is one of the potentially more potent. Its members are committed to breaking the law peacefully. Part of their power lies in the fact that they keep reminding the police, courts and politicians that their actions aim to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r89CvYYKdxw">save everybody’s children,</a> not just their own.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">An Extinction Rebellion video calling on leaders to save the future of today’s children.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>But what of national politics?</h2>
<p>Action by state governments, councils, individuals and groups will be critical to tackling climate change. But that still leaves the problem of federal parliament.</p>
<p>More pro-climate independents in federal parliament would shift our politics in the right direction. At the last election, voters in the northern Sydney seat of Warringah dispensed with incumbent Tony Abbott, in favour of independent candidate Zali Steggall (who won an <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-19/election-results-tony-abbott-lived-and-died-with-division/11121594">astonishing 58%</a> of the two-party preferred vote). It shows what’s possible when traditionally conservative voters get sick of being held to ransom by climate deniers in parliament.</p>
<p>But other <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-mp-craig-kelly-backs-advance-australia-s-climate-change-resources-in-classrooms-20200221-p54366.html">deniers</a> in the parliamentary party remain influential. Their modus operandi, as former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/like-terrorists-malcolm-turnbull-assails-liberal-climate-deniers-20200206-p53y6u.html">has said</a>, is that of terrorists threatening to blow the place up if they don’t get their way. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-polling-shows-79-of-aussies-care-about-climate-change-so-why-doesnt-the-government-listen-148726">New polling shows 79% of Aussies care about climate change. So why doesn't the government listen?</a>
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<p>Getting more independents into parliament will not be easy. The major political parties, which have many millions of dollars to spend at elections, will fiercely oppose any challengers. </p>
<p>But imagine if the Liberal-Nationals were forced to rid themselves of denialists to head off challenges by independents. What if they could once more implement rational, enduring energy and climate policies? Well, we are at a moment in time where this might be possible. </p>
<p>Membership of both the Labor and Liberal parties has dwindled in recent decades. That means a tiny, self-selected portion of Australia’s population chooses the candidates we vote for. </p>
<p>This has exposed the Liberals, in particular, to hijack by climate deniers – given the small membership numbers, it’s not hard for denialist candidates to win preselection. But if party members let these wreckers run the show, Australia will continue on the path to catastrophe.</p>
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<img alt="Protest signs outside Parliament House in Canberra" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366022/original/file-20201028-19-jzqwvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366022/original/file-20201028-19-jzqwvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366022/original/file-20201028-19-jzqwvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366022/original/file-20201028-19-jzqwvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366022/original/file-20201028-19-jzqwvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366022/original/file-20201028-19-jzqwvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366022/original/file-20201028-19-jzqwvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">More pro-climate independents are needed to help shape national policy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>Time to step up</h2>
<p>Australians have become used to living with governments that don’t serve our interests. Many people are rightly cynical and disengaged from politics. And that’s exactly where the climate deniers would like us to be. </p>
<p>But to effect real change, we must shake free of apathy. New people will have to step up and join those who have been persevering in pushing for climate action for years. </p>
<p>With enough momentum, we can embark on the cure for this most wicked of problems.</p>
<p><em>This is an edited extract from The Climate Cure: Solving the Climate Emergency in the Era of COVID-19 by Tim Flannery (Text Publishing).</em></p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/distress-depression-and-drug-use-young-people-fear-for-their-future-after-the-bushfires-146320">Distress, depression and drug use: young people fear for their future after the bushfires</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148252/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Flannery does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>State governments, councils, researchers and entrepreneurs are slowing our slide to disaster – but they need others to step up.Tim Flannery, Professorial fellow, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1372522020-04-28T19:51:22Z2020-04-28T19:51:22ZThe government’s UNGI scheme: what it is and why Zali Steggall wants it investigated<p>Independent MP and barrister Zali Steggall recently drew public attention to a federal government <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/energy-programs/underwriting-new-generation-investments-program">program</a> that supports <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-governments-electricity-shortlist-rightly-features-pumped-hydro-and-wrongly-includes-coal-114503">gas, hydro and coal power</a> projects through underwriting. </p>
<p>Writing to Auditor General Grant Hehir, Steggall <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/27/zali-steggall-calls-for-probe-of-coalition-plan-to-underwrite-gas-hydro-and-coal-power">called for an investigation</a> into the “underwriting new generation investment” (UNGI) program, saying it lacks transparency at a time when visibility of public spending is crucial. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-governments-electricity-shortlist-rightly-features-pumped-hydro-and-wrongly-includes-coal-114503">The government's electricity shortlist rightly features pumped hydro (and wrongly includes coal)</a>
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<p>“Underwriting” is when a degree of financial risk associated with a project is taken on by the government, rather than the project’s proponent. </p>
<p>Amid an economic crisis and a pressing need to transition to lower-carbon energy, people are understandably interested in where government money is being invested within the energy sector, and on what grounds. </p>
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<p>As we face mounting job losses and <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/coal-stranded-asset-warning-takes-on-fresh-edge-with-adani-goahead-20181129-h18ifd">stranded assets</a> from the transition away from coal – and from the COVID-19 pandemic – taxpayers have a right to anticipate that the government’s investments will be strategically sound.</p>
<p>But the UNGI program lacks the important detail needed to assure the public that smart decisions are being made.</p>
<h2>UNGI explained</h2>
<p>The UNGI program was introduced in 2018. It followed the collapse of Malcolm Turnbull’s National Energy Guarantee and an Australian Consumer and Competition Commission (ACCC) inquiry, which <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/Retail%20Electricity%20Pricing%20Inquiry%E2%80%94Final%20Report%20June%202018_0.pdf">found</a> competition in Australia’s electricity sector needs to be stronger to reduce prices. </p>
<p>The federal government <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/energy-programs/underwriting-new-generation-investments-program">describes UNGI</a> as “technology neutral”. This means the government’s focus is on supporting “best and lowest cost” energy generation options to get off the ground – whether coal, gas, or renewables. </p>
<p>What’s unclear is the extent to which a costs analysis under UNGI will consider long-term and indirect costs, such as by using <a href="https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2017/fd/c7fd00009j#!divAbstract">social costing metrics</a>. </p>
<p>A holistic analysis like this is important in the context of the climate crisis, which could set the Australian economy back more than <a href="https://www.sgsep.com.au/assets/main/Australias_Clean_Economy_MSSI_Issues_Paper12.pdf">A$762 billion in damages by 2050</a>. Only considering short-term and direct costs is a recipe for long-term damage when it comes to energy and the impacts of climate change. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-clear-why-coal-struggles-for-finance-and-the-government-cant-change-that-105837">It's clear why coal struggles for finance – and the government can't change that</a>
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<p>Half the projects currently shortlisted for potential support are fossil fuel projects. The other half are renewables-powered pumped hydrogen projects. </p>
<p>But as Steggall has written, the government hasn’t been transparent about how they decide on which projects to underwrite. </p>
<p>These 12 shortlisted projects were chosen without any final guidelines published informing the public on the selection process. Preliminary criteria, identified in the <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/sites/default/files/Underwriting%20New%20Generation%20Investment%20program%20-%20Registrations%20of%20Interest%20Guidance%20Document.pdf">request for proposals</a>, hasn’t been converted into a decision-making mandate, despite an indication this would happen.</p>
<h2>Does the UNGI program have legal support?</h2>
<p>Steggall’s letter to the Auditor General referenced research by the Australia Institute think tank, which has <a href="https://www.tai.org.au/sites/default/files/P885%20Problems%20with%20UNGI%20%5Bweb%5D.pdf">criticised the UNGI program</a> as having no legal foundation. </p>
<p>The institute published <a href="https://www.tai.org.au/sites/default/files/Underwriting%20New%20Generation%20Investments%20Advice%20%255bWEB%255d.pdf">advice</a> from barristers Fiona McLeod SC and Lindy Barrett, which outlines hypothetical ways UNGI could proceed. These include via an <a href="http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s96.html">agreement with states</a>, existing legislation, or new legislation. They concluded that there was no identifiable support mechanism in place at the time of the advice.</p>
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<p>More than a year later, there hasn’t been any new legislation. And the government has flagged the Clean Energy Finance Corporation’s Grid Reliability Fund as the existing mechanism to support the UNGI program. </p>
<h2>So why might that be a problem?</h2>
<p>There are restrictions on the types of financial instruments this fund can support, as well as on what types of projects. While the Clean Energy Finance Corporation can provide loans, it may not be able to support the types of contracts envisaged by the <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/sites/default/files/Underwriting%20New%20Generation%20Investment%20program%20-%20Registrations%20of%20Interest%20Guidance%20Document.pdf">early UNGI documents</a>.</p>
<p>As the name suggests, the <em>Clean</em> Energy Finance Corporation could not support a coal project. And yet a coal project has been shortlisted. </p>
<p>The Grattan Institute’s energy program director Tony Wood also expressed concern, saying last year that UNGI appeared “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/aug/29/energy-companies-frustrated-at-slow-progress-on-taxpayer-underwriting-deals">quite different</a>” to what the ACCC inquiry called for: a scheme to <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/media-release/more-work-needed-to-make-electricity-prices-affordable">provide certainty for debt financing</a> and facilitate new entrants into the wholesale market. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrisons-gas-transition-plan-is-a-dangerous-road-to-nowhere-130951">Scott Morrison's gas transition plan is a dangerous road to nowhere</a>
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<p>And the CEFC is <a href="https://www.tai.org.au/sites/default/files/P885%20Problems%20with%20UNGI%20%5Bweb%5D.pdf">apparently not on the same page</a> as the government that has designated its role in supporting the UNGI program, either. Although it <a href="https://www.cefc.com.au/media/files/cefc-welcomes-announcement-of-1-billion-grid-reliability-fund/">welcomed the funding</a>, CEO Ian Learmonth <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/committees/estimate/49226b7b-2438-49b8-8f8a-94857366c5de/toc_pdf/Environment%20and%20Communications%20Legislation%20Committee_2020_03_02_7594.pdf">noted</a> there was no investment mandate, and the Grid Reliability Fund was separate to UNGI. </p>
<h2>No transparency</h2>
<p>Steggall and the Australia Institute’s main concerns voiced over the past couple of days seem spurred by an unwillingness or inability of the government to provide information around how UNGI is proceeding. </p>
<p>Transcripts from parliament both <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/committees/estimate/ba6d767d-ef3a-4cb5-8679-103079b0913b/toc_pdf/Environment%20and%20Communications%20Legislation%20Committee_2019_10_21_7278_Official.pdf">last year</a> and <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/committees/estimate/49226b7b-2438-49b8-8f8a-94857366c5de/toc_pdf/Environment%20and%20Communications%20Legislation%20Committee_2020_03_02_7594.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf#search=%22committees/estimate/49226b7b-2438-49b8-8f8a-94857366c5de/0000%22">earlier this month</a> reveal a number of important questions into the program are repeatedly bookmarked. </p>
<p>Still, several of the shortlisted projects, particularly the gas projects, have been promised support. This includes two <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/taylor/media-releases/initial-support-terms-two-new-generation-projects-agreed">already the subject of preliminary agreements</a> and one that’s <a href="https://energy.nsw.gov.au/media/2001/download">all but guaranteed</a> funding through an agreement with the NSW government. This suggests the government is ploughing ahead with UNGI despite the lack of clear process or identifiable support mechanism. </p>
<h2>Do we really need to support more gas?</h2>
<p>Energy Minister Angus Taylor has noted growth in gas supply could emerge from <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/gas-revival-key-to-renewables-push-energy-minister-says-20200424-p54n2n.html">natural competitiveness</a> flowed from the effects of COVID-19. </p>
<p>Whether we need to underwrite more gas at this stage is questionable, given the oft-touted role of gas as a transition fuel is <a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrisons-gas-transition-plan-is-a-dangerous-road-to-nowhere-130951">not clear-cut</a>. And in any case gas <a href="https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Decarbonisation-Futures-March-2020-full-report-.pdf">will not have long-term viability</a> in a net-zero emissions context. </p>
<p>Post-COVID-19 recovery stimulus must be focused on markets, industries and technologies that need support, but which also, as Steggall puts it, “have a future”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-big-environment-stories-you-probably-missed-while-youve-been-watching-coronavirus-135364">5 big environment stories you probably missed while you've been watching coronavirus</a>
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<p>Yes, competitive pricing is important, as is reliable energy supply. But how that’s achieved must not frustrate the ability to address climate change, or compound current economic concerns by locking in future costs. </p>
<p>At the very least, clearer information about how projects are meeting the “best and lowest cost” criteria, and what financial and legal mechanisms are supporting UNGI as it proceeds, is what we require – and deserve.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137252/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laura Schuijers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As we face mounting job losses, taxpayers have a right to anticipate that the government’s investments will be strategically sound.Laura Schuijers, Research Fellow in Environmental Law, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1314662020-02-10T06:13:23Z2020-02-10T06:13:23ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Adam Bandt on Greens’ hopes for future power sharing<p>Adam Bandt began his political journey in the Labor party, but the issue of climate change drew him to the Greens. Last week he became their leader, elected unopposed.</p>
<p>Asked about his ambitions for the party, Bandt aspires to a power-sharing situation with a Labor government, akin to the Gillard era. </p>
<p>“Ultimately Labor’s got to decide where it stands, and if Labor decides that it does want to go down the path of working with us on a plan to phase out coal and look after workers in communities, then great.</p>
<p>"If Labor prefers to work with the Liberals, maybe we’re going to see a situation like we do in Germany at the moment where there’s a grand coalition between the equivalent of the Labor and Liberal parties because they find that they’ve got more in common with each other than with us.”</p>
<h2>Transcript (edited for clarity)</h2>
<p><strong>Michelle Grattan:</strong> The Greens last week changed their leader in what was a very smooth transition. There was no hint of arm twisting, let alone a challenge. Richard Di Natale’s explanation of family reasons for stepping down seemed convincing. Adam Bandt, the party’s sole lower house member, took the job without any opposition. </p>
<p>Adam Bandt is generally considered more radical than Di Natale, and he faces the challenging task of managing a senate party from the lower house. He joins us today to talk about how he’ll approach the job. </p>
<p>Adam Bandt, let’s start with your own political background, can you tell us something of your journey to the Greens? </p>
<p><strong>Adam Bandt:</strong> When I was at high school, I actually joined the Labor Party in part because of my family history. Dad was the first one in his family to go to university. And we have always had a very sort of social justice focus at home. And so I joined the Labor Party. I left early on in university when I got involved in the education campaigns right in the thick of Labor’s, I guess, embrace of neo-liberalism and putting up the cost of education. And that wasn’t attractive to me. So I left. </p>
<p>For a number of years, I worked as an employment lawyer, industrial relations lawyer, representing low paid workers and their unions. And it was really climate change that for me prompted me to…I’d been handing out how to vote cards for Greens candidates and doing that for a number of years. But it was really the climate crisis and sort of that initial dawning of how little time we’ve got left to turn the ship around that prompted me to join the Greens back in the mid 2000s and I have been with them ever since. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Now you’re seen as more radical than Richard Di Natale, do you see yourself that way? And in general, what differences will you bring to the leadership? </p>
<p><strong>AB:</strong> I’ll let others make the comparisons. I’ve been very public and continue to be public that I think Richard did a great job and led us to our second best ever election result. And I think that’s quite a feather in his cap. </p>
<p>In terms of what I stand for, like I said before, in terms of my history, the two things that matter most for me are tackling inequality in Australia and tackling the climate crisis. And for me, they’re the two values that have underpinned my adult life. And I’ll keep pushing those. I mean, some have made that comment. I’m not quite sure what it means. I won’t say anything that I can’t back up with the science. </p>
<p>And I think on the climate front, for example, we attracted some criticism before the Christmas holidays for saying that Scott Morrison had played a role in increasing the risk of catastrophic fires like the ones we were seeing and that he had to take some responsibility for it. And I stand by that because objectively he has. And I think those who say perhaps there’s a bit too much strong language, I think fail to understand how angry and anxious people are feeling at the moment and especially a lot of young people in this country. And so I think the time for kind of soft pedalling and not telling the truth about how severe the climate emergency is, is now over.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Just to take you up on this point about young people, while not downplaying the whole threat of climate change, do you feel some responsibility not to alarm people who are very young, 13, 14 year olds? </p>
<p><strong>AB:</strong> I would say that they are already alarmed and anxious. And part of my responsibility is to say we hear that alarm and anxiety and a part of our role is to provide hope that there’s an exit strategy from it. And when, for example, last week I spoke to a student striker who’d come up to Canberra and she was 17 and she said, I can’t bring myself to think more than a year in advance about my future now. I used to be able to, but now I can’t. When I think five or 10 years ahead and think about what the climate emergency will do to me in my life, it all gets too much and I can’t think more than a year ahead. </p>
<p>Now, Scott Morrison might say that’s needless anxiety, but actually at one level, it’s a rational reaction to the things that people are learning about the state of the science. And I speak to a lot of school groups and school children about the state of climate change. And it is a difficult balancing act because on the one hand, you don’t want to tell people things that aren’t true. But on the other hand, we’ve got to provide a bit of hope. And that’s what I see my role as. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> But you are more alarmed than the average person, probably about climate change and yet you think obviously five or 10 years ahead. So isn’t there some responsibility to say to that young person, well, I can think a decade ahead and of course, you can think a decade ahead. </p>
<p><strong>AB:</strong> Yes. And that’s why I’m pushing for a Green New Deal. Part of the motivation for outlining a green new deal is to say, look, there’s a different way of thinking about Australia. We could become a renewable energy superpower and tackle the climate crisis and tackle the anxiety that people are legitimately feeling about that. And so part of a Green New Deal is about dealing with the economic challenges that we face. But part of it is also about having an exit strategy from what I see as the climate crisis, a jobs crisis and an inequality crisis all coming in together at the moment in a way that could be quite paralysing for some people. So we need an exit strategy. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> We’ll come to the Green New Deal in a moment. But let me first take you to some of the Greens internal issues. You’ve had problems within the party, for example, claims of sexual harassment and the like. Are you concerned about the party’s culture and do you have some plan to deal with it? </p>
<p><strong>AB:</strong> Look, I’m not concerned about where the party’s culture is at the moment. But I think in the past - and I think you’ve found Richard Di Natale is saying exactly the same thing - probably things weren’t dealt with as well as they could have been. And it’s a challenge for us as a volunteer based organisation where we’re wanting to bring people in and be active supporters in our campaign knowing that we don’t have the money that the others have got and so we’re much more reliant on people and… </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> They’re not problems of money are they, really? </p>
<p><strong>AB:</strong> Well no it’s problems of not having paid attention to having the right processes in place and putting in place the right culture and I think in the past we didn’t do as well as we could have for the women who came forward with those complaints. I think we have to accept that. And since then, I know certainly in my office we put in place structures to make sure that if anyone ever felt uncomfortable, they’d have a way to raise it and they’d be believed. And I know that in the national organisation, they’ve put in place some of those changes as well. So I feel that we’ve got to admit that in the past, we didn’t do it as well as we could, and I think the changes that have been made at the national organisation will stand us in good stead. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Now, some Greens in your rank and file would like to have a say in the choice of leader. What do you think about that? Should future leaders be chosen, at least in part by the rank and file, as happens with the Labor Party? Or do you think the decision should rest with the parliamentary party? </p>
<p><strong>AB:</strong> Yes so at the moment it rests with the parliamentary party. Some have been pushing for a change to say it should be solely selected by the members. My personal view is that I favour a mixed model where the party room continues to have a say but members also get to have a say via a vote. Now we’ve got a process in place in the party to resolve that at the May national conference, which we’ve got coming up. And so I hope that process is on track and I’ve got no reason to think it won’t be. And we’ll probably have a resolution of it by then on on the current timetable. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> It seems slightly indecent to talk about your successor but you’re saying your successor you think will be chosen by a mixed system? </p>
<p><strong>AB:</strong> Well, I don’t know. It’s gonna be up to the party. But if I get a ballot paper, within the Greens, I as one individual member, will be taking the mixed model box. But I also think as a leader, it’s probably not my role to use my position now to influence things one way or the other. That’s got to be something the members decide. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Let’s turn to the Green New Deal. Firstly, why did you choose that term, New Deal? </p>
<p><strong>AB:</strong> We’ve been talking about that in the Greens for some time. We held a conference back in 2009 to promote a Green New Deal in Australia. And it’s a term that is gaining global currency as well. And I think increasingly… </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> And has historical context of course from America. </p>
<p><strong>AB:</strong> That’s right. And one of the things that it raises the question of because of its historical associations is what is the role of government? What is the role of government in the context of the current crises that we have at the moment? And I wanted to send a very clear message that for me, the Green New Deal is a government led plan of action and investment to grow new jobs and industries and create a clean economy in a caring society. And I think we are facing a number of crises and are at an impasse in Australia, in part because government has been unwilling to step in and deal with the challenges that we’ve got. </p>
<p>So this is about saying, well, what are the settings in place to grow new jobs and industries so that Australia becomes a renewable energy superpower, as we tackle some of these other jobs and inequality crises that we’re facing at the moment? So it’s a different way of thinking about government as helping usher in a new clean economy. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> So is it putting more emphasis on the economic side rather than the environmental side of climate change issues of energy transition? </p>
<p><strong>AB:</strong> It’s about acknowledging that some of the big challenges that we’ve got are a mix of moral and economic, if you want to use those terms. So we’ve got a climate crisis that is being felt now very acutely in Australia. We’ve got a jobs crisis where it’s being particularly played out amongst young people where one in three young people either doesn’t have a job or doesn’t have enough hours of work. They’re underemployed. And we’ve got an inequality crisis where we’ve got inequality at a 70 year high and people still living in poverty. </p>
<p>What I’m arguing is that the solution to all of these is government stepping in and saying, right, we’ve got some problems and we’re going to fix them. And that then addresses both the economic questions and the moral questions. </p>
<p>I think also on one other note, I’ve been in the house of representatives and I’ve got a seat where we’ve got more public housing than any other seat in Victoria but we’ve also got more women in paid work than any other state in Victoria. And it’s consistent with my history, too, of representing a lot of working people over many years is that I firmly believe that you have to take people’s material concerns seriously and you have to listen to where people are at and what is important to them in their lives. And part of the reason we’ve been successful in Melbourne is that we’ve been able to say, yes, we want to talk about climate change as the Greens, but we also have a plan to deal with a lot of your material concerns. And in fact, if you elected us, you’d find that you’d be better off than under the other parties. And we’ve successfully grown our audiences by getting that message out. </p>
<p>So for me, it’s also part of the Green New Deal. It’s about saying issues of jobs, issues of growing a clean economy are important issues. And we’ve got a plan to deal with that as part of tackling the climate crisis. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Of course, that’s all about environment as part of the wider issue. But nevertheless, you’re less from an environment background than, say, Christine Milne or Bob Brown, aren’t you?</p>
<p><strong>AB:</strong> Look, the first demonstration that I went on was in high school in Western Australia, and it was against a nuclear powered warship that had pulled into port. And having done high school and university in Western Australia…it was in the milieu of the Greens in Western Australia - the anti-nuclear campaign which was quite a campaign then. My dad’s side of the family is that much more labor-ist side and mum’s was, I guess you would say, very practical environmentalist side and we were always getting from her mum Wilderness Society calendars for Christmas and they lived in Tasmania and had a very keen understanding that we’ve only got one planet. So those two things for me have always been sort of driving forces. </p>
<p>Yes, I went off and before coming to this job, spent time working, I guess you might say, on that social side of it. But it was the climate crisis that prompted me to chuck that all in and say, I’m going to throw my hat in the ring and start running in politics. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> You haven’t tried to intercept a bulldozer?</p>
<p><strong>AB:</strong> No, I haven’t. But I’ve been at other demonstrations. But no I haven’t been arrested. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> So can we turn to your ambition for the Greens? What is your most optimistic scenario while keeping within the bounds of reality? </p>
<p><strong>AB:</strong> I think one unassailable fact in recent history is that the only time pollution came down in this country in a sustained way was when the Greens, independents and Labor worked together and we introduced a carbon price. And when there was an understanding that we had to share power, but in accordance with the composition of the parliament that had been elected. I could see that happening again. </p>
<p>I think we’re in a very finely balanced parliament, and you know Scott Morrison is still only holding on effectively by one seat. And it wouldn’t take the dial shifting that much to be back in a situation akin to the 2010 parliament… </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Now are you talking post election? </p>
<p><strong>AB:</strong> Yes, post-election. It may happen sooner. All it takes is one. In every term of parliament, there’s almost always a by-election. Someone resigns. And if it’s someone in the right seat who resigns and theie seat then changes to the independents or Greens or Labor, then we could be in a very interesting situation before the next election. But certainly at and after the next election, to summarise it, my goals would be to turf the government out, put Greens in balance of power and implement a Green New Deal. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> So you would see at your most optimistic a power sharing situation with a Labor government, with an Albanese government?</p>
<p><strong>AB:</strong> I think that is a path to achieving change in this country. And I think it’s a realistic path. We elected a senator in every state at the last election. So it shows that we can do that. Of course, the dynamics in the house of representatives, there’s probably a few more moving parts there with independents running. But the good thing about the current house of representatives is that, with the exception of Bob Katter, there is a great willingness amongst the independents to act on climate change. And we’ve worked very closely together on things like the medivac bill, but also on the climate emergency motion that I moved and Zali Steggall seconded. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> And now she’s got private members bill… </p>
<p><strong>AB:</strong> And now she’s got a private member’s bill as well. So we might have different views about the best policy mechanism to do it. But I think there is now a broad based desire amongst sections of the crossbench to take action on climate. And you’ve got government members losing seats to people like Zali Steggall on the basis of an ambitious climate policy. And so after the next election, if it ended up in a situation similar to 2010, I think there’d be a lot of scope for climate ambition and the ability for Greens, Labor and independents to work together. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Mind you, Labor’s rhetoric isn’t very nice to the Greens. They say some extremely unpleasant things about you.</p>
<p><strong>AB:</strong> Yea, and I think Labor’s got to decide whether they want to help us take on the government over climate change or not. I’ve been disappointed that Labor has chosen to adopt exactly the same rhetoric on coal that Tony Abbott did and that the government did. That’s not hyperbole. Like they actually are now using the same language of our coal apparently being cleaner and we can continue to we to open up new coal mines and they won’t rule out building new coal fired power stations either. That makes our job of holding Morrison to account harder. </p>
<p>So ultimately Labor’s got to decide where it stands and if Labor decides that it does want to go down the path of working with us on a plan to phase out coal and look after workers in communities, then great. If not, if Labor prefers to work with the Liberals, maybe we’re going to see a situation like we do in Germany at the moment where there’s a grand coalition between the equivalent of the Labor and Liberal parties because they find that they’ve got more in common with each other than with us. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> So are you more disappointed in Anthony Albanese than you were with Bill Shorten on this coal question? </p>
<p><strong>AB:</strong> Well, I think that Labor risks fighting the last election again rather than the next one. And there’s this move from Labor and Liberals to embrace coal. I think it misreads the election result. I think especially after the summer that we’re we’ve had at the moment, I don’t think people want to see an embrace to coal. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> And you think Albanese is embracing coal? </p>
<p><strong>AB:</strong> Yes. And he would say he is. And he’s using the same, as I say, the same rhetoric as Tony Abbott. They’re both saying, well, we’ve got to sell it otherwise, they’ll buy it from somewhere else… </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Tony Abbott or Scott Morrison?</p>
<p><strong>AB:</strong> That’s what Tony Abbott said. It’s what Scott Morrison says and it’s what Anthony Albanese is now saying as well…</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> So they’re in a pro coal alliance, Morrison and Albanese, would you say that? </p>
<p><strong>AB:</strong> Well, I don’t know if they’re in… I mean, take a step back and look at the Queensland results at the last election. There’s this sense that somehow coal won the election and that therefore everyone has to be pro coal now. I think it completely misreads the results. </p>
<p>If you look at what happens in some of those coal seats, the Liberal Party vote or the LNP vote, the change you know, barely troubled the scorer like they got a very small change. Some went slightly down, I think - I stand to be corrected, some might have gone up slightly. What happened was that a lot of Labor voters, women voted for One Nation and then the preferences came back to the Liberals. </p>
<p>And what I think that speaks of is that on this question of a transition out of coal, people see through you when you try and have it both ways. And what is needed in those coal communities is a transition plan where we’re not trying to pull the wool over people’s eyes. And if Labor thinks it can continue to walk both sides of the fence, then I think they’re going to stay in opposition for a very long time, because the script that we saw playing out at the last election will just play itself out at the next election. Last election, it was the Adani coal mine. Next election, it could be the new mine that Clive Palmer or Gina Rinehart wants to open up. </p>
<p>So I think that there’s a risk of misreading what the electoral result actually meant on the question of coal. And also forgetting, I think, that Clive Palmer helped buy the election. I understand that Labor has gone through the process of working out where they think they went wrong but I think a lot of weight needs to be put on that. So I think electoral donations reform is an essential component if we’re to ever have a change of government. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Now, you’ve been very critical of Labor, but you’re also saying that your aspiration would be to work with the Labor government. What sort of personal contact, if any, do you have with the Labor leadership? I mean, do you have a beer or a cup of coffee with Anthony Albanese or do you not talk to them at all? </p>
<p><strong>AB:</strong> Well, during the power sharing parliament, Anthony Albanese was leader in the house and we met regularly. We would meet at least once or twice a week to discuss the business of the place. And I think ultimately history is going to be a lot kinder to that period of parliament than perhaps some currently think about it because I mean, Julia Gillard can hold her head high. And Anthony Albanese played a part of helping put in place laws that brought down pollution. In terms of ongoing contact, even during this parliament, things like coming within a vote of getting a no confidence motion progressed with respect to Peter Dutton and things like the medivac legislation, I’ve worked closely with Labor and the crossbenchers in the business of Parliament to actually try to make things happen. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> So how’s your relationship with Albanese. Do you have a sort of personal rapport or is it just a matter of convenience when it’s needed to talk? </p>
<p><strong>AB:</strong> Well look so far it’s been a good working relationship but I think the the question for them now is what approach they want to take and if they want to be backing in Scott Morrison more and appearing more like him then perhaps they’ll want to work with with us. Ball’s in their court really.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Now you hold an inner city seat, but the Greens have not been able to capture other federal house of representatives seats. There was one way back, but that special circumstances. Do you think that you do have any prospect in the future or have you sort of missed the opportunity? There was speculation, for example, during the Batman by election. </p>
<p><strong>AB:</strong> Yea I would hope to see us grow in the house of representatives, as well as the senate and I think we have to. Where those opportunities are, for me, that’s gonna be driven by where we’re at closer to the next election. I took some heart from how close we came in states like Higgins and Kooyong at the last election and I feel a main reason we didn’t break through in those seats was that the government came to town and spent millions of dollars to hold them. And those millions of dollars were spent convincing people that the government all of a sudden cared about climate change. </p>
<p>Now people say, oh well, it’s the climate election but look at the result. Well, you know, Scott Morrison got that result by telling people he cared about climate change. I could see that in Higgins and in Kooyong. Those are seats near mine and I could see it happening every day. The question will be whether having seen the summer that we’ve had and seeing what happens over the next couple of years, whether Morrison is successful in that greenwashing and continuing to say it’s okay I’ve climate crisis under control. When you’ve got Melbourne and Sydney and Canberra ranking amongst the world’s most polluted cities over a course of a couple of months, he might not be that successful in doing it, but they’re places that we will be continuing to spend a bit of time in. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Just finally you’re in the house of representatives. But you’re managing essentially a Senate party. How’s that going to work out in practice? I know you’ve said that there’ll be a bit of power sharing and so on, but it’s quite difficult to follow what is often quite fast play in the upper house if you’re not actually sitting on one of those red seats. </p>
<p><strong>AB:</strong> We’ll now have a position of leader in the senate that Larissa Waters will hold and she’ll be supported by a deputy, Nick McKim, and a team that knows how to read the play in the Senate and deal with it as it happens. And look, the other parties have their leaders in the house and have a senate team that’s ably led and is able to deal with things as they arise in the senate. But also, look in this period of parliament, where the government’s got people like One Nation that they can work with to get their agenda through the senate, part of what we’ve got to do is work with those social movements that are building up at the moment to put some pressure on the government. </p>
<p>And so we’ll be spending a bit of our time in the community talking to the people who are going on the school strikes for climate and so on. And I feel that if we do it right, it could be reminiscent of the Franklin Dam campaign where we have that interaction between the social movement of what’s happening in politics. Where if the voices from the people are strong enough, we can use that in parliament to push for change. And so that approach is probably not so much about which house you’re in. It’s about having as much an outward facing approach as focusing on the business of parliament. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Adam Bandt, thank you very much for talking with The Conversation today.</p>
<h2>New to podcasts?</h2>
<p>Podcasts are often best enjoyed using a podcast app. All iPhones come with the Apple Podcasts app already installed, or you may want to listen and subscribe on another app such as Pocket Casts (click <a href="http://pca.st/BVa3#t=3m34s">here</a> to listen to Politics with Michelle Grattan on Pocket Casts).</p>
<p>You can also hear it on Stitcher, Spotify or any of the apps below. Just pick a service from one of those listed below and click on the icon to find Politics with Michelle Grattan.</p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/politics-with-michelle-grattan/id703425900?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233721/original/file-20180827-75984-1gfuvlr.png" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL2F1L3BvZGNhc3RzL3BvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbWljaGVsbGUtZ3JhdHRhbi5yc3M"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation-4/politics-with-michelle-grattan"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> <a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/Politics-with-Michelle-Grattan-p227852/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://radiopublic.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-WRElBZ"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/5NkaSQoUERalaLBQAqUOcC"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237984/original/file-20180925-149976-1ks72uy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" width="268" height="82"></a> </p>
<h2>Additional audio</h2>
<p><a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score/Lee_Rosevere_-_The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score_-_10_A_List_of_Ways_to_Die">A List of Ways to Die</a>, Lee Rosevere, from Free Music Archive.</p>
<p><strong>Image:</strong></p>
<p>AAP/Mick Tsikas</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131466/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Adam Bandt expresses his disappointment with Labor's coal rhetoric. He says they have a decision to make: work with the Greens, or determine whether they have more in common with the Liberals.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1173792019-05-19T06:06:49Z2019-05-19T06:06:49ZAbbott’s loss in Warringah shows voters rejecting an out-of-touch candidate and a nasty style of politics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275269/original/file-20190519-69169-12w6jqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tony Abbott, with wife Margie, concedes defeat in Warringah.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Bianca de Marchi</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On election night 2019, as Australia voted to return the Liberal-National Party government of Scott Morrison, one seat defied the trend – Warringah. Tony Abbott, former prime minster, Howard-era minister, pugilist and would-be priest, had lost this Liberal heartland seat to barrister and former Olympic skier Zali Steggall.</p>
<p>Running from North Sydney to Manly, up to Dee Why and then inland to Forestville, Warringah is a long-held conservative seat, never having been won by Labor or independents in its 97-year history.</p>
<p>Yet, Abbott went into the election as something of an underdog. The key issues for Steggall, climate change and refugees, were both issues that had agitated the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-20/kerryn-phelps-wins-wentworth-by-election-in-historic-result/10400270">electors of Wentworth</a> seven months earlier, when independent Kerryn Phelps won the seat of former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull at the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wentworth-by-election-2018/">byelection</a> caused by his resignation from parliament.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-wins-election-but-abbott-loses-warringah-plus-how-the-polls-got-it-so-wrong-116804">Coalition wins election but Abbott loses Warringah, plus how the polls got it so wrong</a>
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<p>That resignation, brought on by Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton creating a leadership challenge that would eventually fall to Scott Morrison, had created bitter acrimony in Liberal ranks. Abbott was blamed for destabilising the party since losing the prime ministership himself in the lead up to the 2016 election.</p>
<p>Now the chickens were coming home to roost. Left-wing activist group GetUp! and independent campaigners helped promote Steggall as a viable conservative-leaning independent candidate. GetUp! itself was accused of using <a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/steggall-campaign-in-secret-getup-plot/news-story/8c309d06e6188ccea1885cbee3ecdda2">Steggall as a front</a> for its activities.</p>
<p>A conservative campaign was also initiated, under the name <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/09/captain-getup-conservative-groups-satirical-superhero-debuts-to-ridicule">Captain GetUp</a>, trying to suggest that GetUp! was just a front for Labor, but this failed to spark anything more than derision among watchers of the Captain’s YouTube campaign.</p>
<p>While Abbott also attempted to use YouTube, his fascination in one clip of a roadside library (free, covered book boxes, designed to pass on “good reads”) simply suggested he was out-of-touch with what was going on in his electorate, and built upon the picture of a politician out of step with his voters - as had previously been seen in the same sex marriage plebiscite and on climate change.</p>
<p>This sense of being out of touch, perhaps most strongly exhibited by Abbott’s continued insistence that he would come back to lead the Liberal Party if he was asked to, even when Liberal voters were <a href="https://www.essentialvision.com.au/best-leader-liberal-party-2">strongly opposed</a> to this , propelled Steggall’s attempt to wrest the seat from Abbott.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275270/original/file-20190519-69182-tr2ko2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275270/original/file-20190519-69182-tr2ko2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275270/original/file-20190519-69182-tr2ko2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275270/original/file-20190519-69182-tr2ko2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275270/original/file-20190519-69182-tr2ko2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275270/original/file-20190519-69182-tr2ko2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275270/original/file-20190519-69182-tr2ko2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Independent Zali Steggall celebrates winning Warringah from former prime minister, Tony Abbott.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dylan Coker</span></span>
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<p>Abbott’s own preselection, which might have been thought uncontroversial, was a scene of anger and dismay. Although he won <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/tony-abbott-suffers-monumental-scare/news-story/224166f1c96824cf7632ef01a982c496">68% of the votes</a> to endorse him, this also implies that even party members were losing patience with his activities within the party.</p>
<p>However, the campaign itself has been spiteful and angry, with accusations being levelled at both sides of <a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2019/05/18/the-campaign-warringah/15581016008150">abuse and personal nastiness</a>. This has included defacing of posters, personal abuse at both candidates, opposing campaigners dogging other candidates as they meet and greet, and particularly of the Abbott campaign, the use of <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/lib-stabbed-vandalism-how-the-left-hate-in-warringah/news-story/23dad63bcecef6e333d2ec5762f1882d">media surrogates</a> to promote an anti-Steggall message.</p>
<p>The result in Warringah must be seen as a local phenomenon, especially when taken against the backdrop of the general election and the failure of some other high profile campaigns.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/key-challenges-for-the-re-elected-coalition-government-our-experts-respond-117325">Key challenges for the re-elected Coalition government: our experts respond</a>
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<p>The GetUp! Campaign in Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson would appear to have had limited effect, considering that Dutton had a 2% swing towards him. Several high-profile candidates who it was thought would struggle to retain their seats (George Christensen in Dawson, and Barnaby Joyce in New England) recorded double-digit swings towards them, suggesting their voters may or may not approve of their personal behaviour, but they do endorse the direction of their party.</p>
<p>This again emphasises the very localised nature of Abbott’s defeat. Far from a repudiation of Liberal values, it has been the repudiation of one individual’s form of political action. Abbott has been a polarising figure, and has been accused of some low politics in the past, although he would not be the only politician who that accusation has been levelled against.</p>
<p>It might then be argued the Australian parliament has lost one of its more colourful characters, but he is also the last of the characters from that 11 year period of Australian political life that saw five prime ministers dispatched, not at an election but while still in office.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison can at least look forward to not having to watch out for his predecessors.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117379/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stewart Jackson has received funding from Department of Finance APPD program. He is a former National Convenor of the Australian Greens, between 2003-2005. </span></em></p>The result in Warringah can be seen as being fought on local issues, where the former prime minister had come to be out of step with his constituents.Stewart Jackson, Lecturer, Department of Government and International Relations, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1166722019-05-17T03:16:45Z2019-05-17T03:16:45ZGetUp’s brand of in-your-face activism is winning elections – and making enemies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274838/original/file-20190516-69209-1msxvvj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">GetUp! protesters outside the second leaders' debate in Adelaide earlier this month.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Mariuz/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It can be hard for a political cause to get noticed in a jaded world awash with information, but conspiracy theories can go a long way. </p>
<p>This could help explain the motivations of the lobbying group Advance Australia (AA) in this election campaign. Advance Australia was <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-21/what-is-advance-australia/10520122">founded late last year</a> as a conservative antidote to the left-leaning GetUp and has attracted prominent business <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-21/what-is-advance-australia/10520122">leaders</a> as financial backers. </p>
<p>Liberal luminaries like Eric Abetz have long been wary of GetUp, viewing it as an arm of <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/win-for-getup-as-electoral-commission-rules-it-s-not-formally-linked-to-labor-or-the-greens-20190218-p50ymk.html">Labor</a> and the Greens (despite the fact the Australian Electoral Commission <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/win-for-getup-as-electoral-commission-rules-it-s-not-formally-linked-to-labor-or-the-greens-20190218-p50ymk.html">has ruled</a> the group is independent of any political party). </p>
<p>Following GetUp’s success in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-04/election-2016-finger-pointing-begins-liberal-losses-tasmania/7565690">unseating Liberal Bass MP Andrew Nikolic</a> in the 2016 election, these conservative factions are now annoyed by the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/new-getup-poll-shows-crash-in-support-for-tony-abbott-in-warringah-20190504-p51k3q.html">group’s aggressive campaigning</a> against Tony Abbott in Warringah in this campaign. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-style-lobbying-how-getup-channels-australians-voices-into-politics-60625">New style lobbying: how GetUp! channels Australians' voices into politics</a>
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<p>This is where the conspiracy theories come in. </p>
<p>According to a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UP8PXAA9tE&t=15s">video</a> released by Advance Australia in April, GetUp is “imposing its secret agenda on Australia and seeking to control the Australian way of life”. It “flies under the radar” and is “hoodwinking well-meaning Australians into implementing their radical agenda”. </p>
<p>The video also warns that GetUp is linked to “a foreign network of left-wing activist groups” known as OPEN, which is authoritarian (“reminiscent of the old-style Soviet Union”) but somehow also “globalist”.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Advance Australia video aimed at GetUp.</span></figcaption>
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<p>This hissy-fit of hyperbole prevents Advance Australia from seeing what stares the group in the face. GetUp is none of those things. Rather, the organisation gives ordinary people a way to get involved in political life at the grassroots level – a commonplace phenomenon in American politics that is only possible in Australia outside our more dominant party structures.</p>
<h2>GetUp’s growth and influence</h2>
<p>GetUp has emerged as a target in this campaign because of its <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-style-lobbying-how-getup-channels-australians-voices-into-politics-60625">increasing influence</a> as a mobiliser of this sort of grassroots political participation. </p>
<p>GetUp’s mission is to “<a href="https://www.getup.org.au/about/">bring participation back into our democracy</a>” through various online and offline activities such as protests, vigils, door-knocking campaigns and donation drives – a strategy modelled on the American grassroots political group MoveOn. Its signature campaign was its push for marriage equality in Australia, with this powerful <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TBd-UCwVAY">video</a> garnering more than 16 million views on YouTube.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">GetUp marriage equality campaign video.</span></figcaption>
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<p>GetUp now boasts <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/getup-and-advance-australia-go-head-to-head-20190418-p51fb3">more than 1 million members</a> and aims to make <a href="https://www.getup.org.au/">1 million phone calls</a> in target electorates during this campaign – often organised through hundreds of “calling parties” in homes across Australia – and to knock on countless doors in key marginal seats.</p>
<p>It is not formally aligned with Labor or the Greens, but it certainly leans left: <a href="https://www.getup.org.au/#how-we-win">on its website</a>, it vows to kick out the “hard right MPs” who it says have:</p>
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<p>…wrecked progressive policies and stifled public debate on climate change, refugees, multiculturalism, economics and democratic participation.</p>
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<p>Advance Australia is small by comparison, <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/getup-and-advance-australia-go-head-to-head-20190418-p51fb3">with just 32,000 members</a>. Its leader, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/meet-gerard-benedet-the-man-who-could-save-conservatives-or-take-them-down-with-him-20190315-p514l1.html">Gerard Benedet</a>, has noted how previous attempts at building a conservative grassroots movement in Australia have failed, but Advance Australia is <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/getup-faces-conservative-challenger-advance-australia/news-story/eb0e92c31377a790ea8902d4bfb08f63">aiming to be different</a>. </p>
<p>However, the group’s awkward campaign tactics, which include <a href="https://junkee.com/captain-getup-please-stop/202047">a widely mocked anti-GetUp superhero figure</a> and reliance on wealthy backers instead of small donations, show it still has a long way to go in adopting a participatory model.</p>
<h2>The origins of grassroots campaigning</h2>
<p>The rise of GetUp and other similar grassroots campaigns being run by independents – such as Zali Steggall’s “<a href="https://www.voicesofwarringah.org.au/">Voices For Warringah</a>” campaign and the “<a href="https://voicesforindi.com/">Voices For Indi</a>” campaigns of first Cathy McGowan and now Helen Haines – is linked in part with early American ideals of participatory democracy, anti-politics, and the power of the internet. </p>
<p>Beginning in the 1980s, American writers such as Steven Levy, Howard Rheingold, Bruce Sterling and a bevy of followers <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=XdiSDQAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=rolfe+reinventing+populist+rhetoric&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj5sL6MmpfiAhVVSX0KHRq5CP8Q6AEIKjAA#v=onepage&q=rolfe%20reinventing%20populist%20rhetoric&f=false">championed</a> the internet as a way of helping empower those at the bottom against political elites. They linked the digital era to the sentimentalised American ideal of populist anti-politics and romanticised the digital-savvy outsiders who harnessed the power of grassroots democracy to ride into office and clean up Washington DC.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-than-slacktivism-we-dismiss-the-power-of-politics-online-at-our-peril-79500">More than 'slacktivism': we dismiss the power of politics online at our peril</a>
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<p>One of the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/magazine/i-dont-blame-the-scream-speech-howard-dean-on-the-first-internet-campaign/2018/01/02/a8995c46-dc37-11e7-b1a8-62589434a581_story.html?utm_term=.81b268add669">first notable internet campaigns</a> was Howard Dean’s presidential run in 2004, which adopted the digital innovations and political advice of MoveOn.</p>
<p>Barack Obama’s presidential campaign of 2008 then further adapted the Dean <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=mayTrDHJVUkC&printsec=frontcover&dq=Kreiss,+D.+(2012).+Taking+Our+Country+Back:+The+Crafting+of+Networked+Politics+from+Howard+Dean+to+Barack+Obama&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj10YrXmpfiAhXVbSsKHZKTDSYQ6AEIKjAA#v=onepage&q=K">model</a> by creating a movement hinting at direct democracy and melding an online and offline grassroots organisational strategy through <a href="https://www.computerworld.com/article/2534052/my-barackobama-com-social-network-stays-online-after-election.html">MyBarackObama</a>, the campaign’s social network. This included more than 200,000 events, such as barbecues and parties, for the volunteers who were door-knocking and telephone canvassing for votes and donations.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">MoveOn’s “Obama in 30 Seconds” campaign, inviting everyday people to make political ads for Obama.</span></figcaption>
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<p>The ALP hoped for similar success by importing senior American <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/rules-for-radicals-comes-to-carrum/">personnel</a> from the 2012 Obama campaign to help run grassroots strategy for its 2014 Victorian state <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/nov/30/victorian-labor-says-its-victory-has-revolutionised-politics?CMP=soc_567">election</a> campaign. It also imported Blue State Digital, a strategy and technology firm that has been important to Democrats since 2005 and <a href="https://www.bluestatedigital.com/our-work/obama-for-america-2008/">managed Obama’s digital campaign in 2008</a>, to <a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-we-can-will-imported-talent-get-labor-over-the-line-16563">aid its less-successful 2013 federal campaign</a>. </p>
<p>These efforts, however, were confined to party and union members, not the broader grassroots base now being reached by GetUp.</p>
<p>Similarly in 2013, the Republican-aligned digital strategy firms <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20181204142645/http://www.imge.com/australia/">IMGE</a> and <a href="https://enga.ge/the-liberal-party-of-australia-designed-for-victory/">Engage</a> were brought in to help the Liberal Party with digital fundraising and data-mining techniques. These innovations, though, also did not embrace participatory campaigning outside party members.</p>
<h2>Independents also embracing digital campaigning</h2>
<p>In this year’s campaign, independents like Steggall and Haines are also enthusiastically embracing community-based campaigning. </p>
<p>Both candidates, for instance, rely on NationBuilder, a Los Angeles-based software company, to create platforms for their online donations and communications efforts and offline activities for their volunteers. Since 2013, NationBuilder has also been the online platform of choice for ALP, Greens and the Australian Council of Trade Union <a href="http://www.crikey.com.au/2013/05/07/unions-labor-and-greens-embrace-web-platform-with-gop-ties/">campaigns</a>.</p>
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<p>Like McGowan and Haines, Steggall campaigns as a cleanskin unsoiled by party politics, with a “<a href="https://www.voicesofwarringah.org.au/about_us">non-partisan community group</a>” aiming to “bridge the gap between people and politics”. This anti-politics mantra contrasts with Abbott, who is viewed by many as one of the people responsible for Australians’ <a href="https://theconversation.com/young-australians-dont-trust-politicians-heres-one-reason-why-116259">widespread distrust and disillusionment with government</a>. </p>
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<p>This distrust is a problem for the major parties, but a boon to GetUp and the independents, who are projected to do well in this election. If the next government cannot counter such feelings among voters, these influential outsiders will continue to flourish in the foreseeable future with the help of digital outreach and the flush of excitement in ordinary citizens who want change, whatever that means to them.</p>
<p>Maybe even Advance Australia will start to harness this grassroots power on the conservative side, minus the conspiracy theories.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116672/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Rolfe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>GetUp has notched many political victories since launching in 2005. Now, independents and conservatives are trying to replicate its approach to grassroots political participation.Mark Rolfe, Honorary associate, School of Social Sciences, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1170362019-05-13T12:16:30Z2019-05-13T12:16:30ZView from The Hill: ‘Soft’ voters in Warringah focus groups expect Tony Abbott win<p>Just two elections ago Tony Abbott was headed for the prime ministership. Now he’s desperately trying to survive in his own seat.</p>
<p>A leader deposed by his party, turned on by Liberal voters in his own heartland, bruised and battle-scarred, Abbott is in one of the most vitriolic contests of this campaign.</p>
<p>His main opponent, former winter Olympian Zali Steggall, is among several high-profile independents challenging in Coalition seats.</p>
<p>Warringah takes in areas of Sydney’s north shore and northern beaches. Abbott, its occupant since 1994, has a margin of 11.1%. He’s been under pressure in a couple of previous elections but is now being pursued by posses of angry locals, some upset over his views on same-sex marriage and his “spoiler” role within the Liberal party, and highly-organised external activists, notably GetUp, mobilising particularly around climate change.</p>
<p>He’s been frenetically working the electorate for months in a massive fight-back, locally focused (think a tunnel and toilets), and supporters are trooping into the seat for these last days.</p>
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<p>On Monday John Howard (who in 2007 lost his own seat and the election) was lending a hand. Warringah voters were “not the big end of town,” the former prime minister said. “Warringah is full people who’ve worked hard, they’ve done a bit better, they’ve accumulated a bit and they don’t want it taken away through higher tax by Mr Shorten.”</p>
<p>The Liberals, attempting to leap the barrier of anti-Abbott feeling, have been hammering the point that a vote for Steggall would be a vote for a Shorten government.</p>
<p>The University of Canberra’s <a href="https://www.democracy2025.gov.au/">Democracy 2025</a> project commissioned two rounds of focus groups in Warringah, done by Landscape Research. The first was in February. The second round, on Wednesday and Thursday last week, included four groups totalling 34 “soft” voters (people who had not decided definitely who they’d vote for). Half had participated in the February round.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-warringah-votes-abbotts-challenger-has-yet-to-penetrate-the-streets-112712">Grattan on Friday: Warringah Votes – Abbott's challenger has yet to
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<p>It is important to stress focus group research is not predictive – rather it taps into attitudes.</p>
<p>Both the older and younger voters believe Abbott will win, even if they aren’t leaning towards voting for him. As a young first-time voter put it: “It’s the demographics of the area”. A middle-aged self-employed woman from Allambie Heights said: “People want certainty and security. They say they want change but they’re resistant”.</p>
<p>In the research’s February round, many participants hadn’t even heard of Steggall. By last week – unsurprisingly given the rash of publicity – everybody had, although some knew little detail about her.</p>
<p>“While many are open to the idea of voting for a strong independent, and see her as a welcome choice standing against Tony Abbott, she does not appear to have done enough to persuade them fully over to her side, yet,” the moderator’s report says.</p>
<p>“There is no doubt she is a serious challenger, and they like having a serious contest to ‘shake things up a bit’, but soft voters acknowledge that Tony Abbott has stepped up to the challenge.</p>
<p>"For many his longevity as a tireless worker for the community - for example, volunteer firefighting, lifesaving - is a strong counter in electoral currency to his reputation for outmoded views on homosexuals and climate change”.</p>
<p>For some of these soft voters, the unknowns about Steggall are seeing them shift to Abbott. A 23-year-old female student teacher from Frenchs Forest was “unsure about Zali”. A female disability contract worker in her 30s from Brookvale thought it better to “keep with what you know.”</p>
<p>Steggall’s elite sporting background is seen as holding her in good stead, shown in her “determination and drive”. She’s viewed as “learning quickly”, although some campaign stumbles have also been noted.</p>
<p>A 59-year-old man from North Balgowlah observed Steggall had done an “astute swivel”, with “the statement that she’d provide ‘confidence’ to the Coalition [if there was a minority government]. It’s providing confidence so that, as a Liberal person, you can get rid of Tony Abbott but still support the Coalition”.</p>
<p>But Steggall’s pushing of climate change as her primary policy, with the apparent lack of a fully fleshed-out platform, concerns some soft voters, including those open to voting for an independent.</p>
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<p>“The only thing I’ve heard from her campaign is the environment - other than that, nothing,” said a civil engineer in his 30s from Queenscliff; a Cromer Heights middle-aged woman at home questioned why Steggall was running now. “If she’s such a local, and so for our electorate, where has she been all this time?”.</p>
<p>Some have also found her wanting even on her central issue. A 33-year-old business development manager from Manly said he “liked her at first” but then thought she was hypocritical when she was “jumping on the electric vehicle bandwagon” while driving a “massive SUV”, which she said she needed to ferry her children.</p>
<p>“The challenge for Steggall at this point in the campaign is that those who have not already decided definitely to vote for her are wavering, and they are not hearing anything more than an ‘I’m not Abbott, I support climate change action’ message,” the research report says.</p>
<p>“While the prospect of a centrist independent candidate was initially appealing, after more consideration over the past few months, some soft voters who were leaning towards voting for Steggall have changed their mind.”</p>
<p>“I was voting more for an independent whereas now I think I need to put down either a Labor or a Liberal candidate because they will have more sway in actually saying something for our electorate,” said the Allambie Heights woman.</p>
<p>Abbott is seen as experienced, a known quantity, widely recognised for his community service, even if people don’t agree with him on some key issues.</p>
<p>He is also regarded by some of these voters to have made positive moves to recognise the electorate’s views on same-sex marriage and climate change. “I think he’s trying to represent everyone a bit more”, the business development manager said. “I think it shows growth for him.”</p>
<p>But others still see climate as Abbott’s Achilles heel. “He continues to struggle to explain his position on climate change. He has an instinct that he doesn’t quite believe it. But he can’t explain what he’s done in the past or what he would do. […] By flip-flopping about, it is very un-Tony Abbott, a weakness,” said the North Balgowlah man.</p>
<p>Being seen in the media as fighting for his survival is regarded as helpful for Abbott. “That generates talk around his supporters and helps him get re-elected,” said a 41-year-old firefighter from Dee Why.</p>
<p>In February, many of the soft voters were more exercised by Abbott’s defying the electorate on same-sex marriage than they were about his climate change position. Now, there is greater attention by some on his climate views. “Some people don’t like Tony because of that,” said a retired Australia Post manager from Manly Vale.</p>
<p>“While believing it important, these Warringah voters also see the climate change discussions as somewhat more of a political debate than about practical environmental action,” the research report says.</p>
<p>“As well, they feel bombarded with the issue to the point of drowning out everything else of importance to them, and they feel like they can’t express their views.”</p>
<p>“Yes, climate change is important, but why is it just hammered into us non-stop?” said a Dee Why woman who works part time in hospitality.</p>
<p>A challenge for Steggall is that her opposition to Labor policies on franking credits and negative gearing that are unpopular with soft voters here hasn’t cut through. The former Australia Post manager, a self-funded retiree who’d been a lifelong Labor voter, said: “I am leaning towards Tony Abbott because I am against the franking credit [changes]”.</p>
<p>As well as the environment (as distinct from “climate change”), local issues for these voters include the northern beaches tunnel (which Abbott has talked about constantly), traffic congestion generally, and housing affordability.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/against-the-odds-scott-morrison-wants-to-be-returned-as-prime-minister-but-who-the-bloody-hell-is-he-116732">Against the odds, Scott Morrison wants to be returned as prime minister. But who the bloody hell is he?</a>
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<p>Predictably, given the nature of this electorate, Scott Morrison has an edge over Bill Shorten as more trusted to lead the country, mainly because of the Liberals’ perceived better economic credentials and a sense of personal strength they don’t see in Shorten.</p>
<p>Older voters mention his “track record” in immigration and his personal character. “I feel he’ll manage the budget better” (retired policeman from North Curl Curl). “[I trust his] moral values and he’s not in it for his own ego” (retired female public servant from Manly). A 74-year-old woman from Forestville said: “One of his policies is to slow down immigration and I also believe in that”.</p>
<p>Younger voters agree Morrison’s economic credentials are stronger and some are prepared to put aside their personal desire for a more compassionate PM for the sake of the country’s economic interests. “Personally, I’d pick Bill Shorten, but for the nation I’d pick Scott Morrison, mainly for the economy”, said the first-time voter, an 18-year-old school leaver from Manly who’s working as a labourer during a gap year.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/after-six-years-as-opposition-leader-history-beckons-bill-shorten-will-the-drovers-dog-have-its-day-115490">After six years as opposition leader, history beckons Bill Shorten. Will the 'drover's dog' have its day?</a>
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<p>But mostly in making their election decisions, these voters’ eyes are on the candidates in their own backyard.</p>
<p>“There is no doubt that having an accomplished independent challenging a 25-year incumbent has given the electorate something to think about. But questions remain for soft voters around Steggall,” the research report concludes.</p>
<p>“They are looking for more than they perceive she is offering (a positive stance on climate change and that she is not Tony Abbott).</p>
<p>"They also perceive that there could a potential backlash against the bitterness and vitriol of the anti-Abbott movement (even if not her doing) which may work against her.</p>
<p>"Warringah soft voters are quietly determined they will make up their own minds, in their own time, and not be bullied into voting a certain way, by either the Abbott or Steggall camps, or anyone else.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117036/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the research’s February round, many participants hadn’t heard of Steggall. By last week – unsurprisingly given the rash of publicity – everybody had, although some knew little detail about her.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1127022019-02-28T10:07:46Z2019-02-28T10:07:46ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Tony Abbott and Zali Steggall on Warringah votes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261400/original/file-20190228-106341-1w7yaox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>The Sydney electorate of Warringah will be one of the most fascinating battlegrounds in the May election, with a high profile independent Zali Stegall challenging former prime minister Tony Abbott.</p>
<p>Despite the seat being on about 11 per cent, Abbott describes this as a “full on marginal seat campaign”. </p>
<p>Abbott is running hard on local issues. He says over-development and traffic congestion are the biggest issues and if reelected he is keen to use his position to be a “champion” for the Northern beaches tunnel. He’s trying to tone down his stridency, this week attempting to avoid being drawn to deeply into the row around the criminal conviction of Cardinal George Pell.</p>
<p>Steggall, a lawyer and former Olympian, is running against Abbott on a campaign that says Warringah voters want “a new voice”.</p>
<p>Keenly focused on climate change policy, Steggall is very critical of the government’s efforts and says even Labor’s energy policy “needs again to be toughened up.”</p>
<p>Steggall, who grew up and lives in the electorate, has only had Abbott as an MP and has never voted Liberal nor has she had voted Labor. </p>
<p>Pressed on who she had voted for, she told The Conversation she has mostly voted independent but “wouldn’t want to say never” to having voted Greens. </p>
<h2>New to podcasts?</h2>
<p>Podcasts are often best enjoyed using a podcast app. All iPhones come with the Apple Podcasts app already installed, or you may want to listen and subscribe on another app such as Pocket Casts (click <a href="http://pca.st/BVa3#t=3m34s">here</a> to listen to Politics with Michelle Grattan on Pocket Casts).</p>
<p>You can also hear it on Stitcher, Spotify or any of the apps below. Just pick a service from one of those listed below and click on the icon to find Politics with Michelle Grattan.</p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/politics-with-michelle-grattan/id703425900?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233721/original/file-20180827-75984-1gfuvlr.png" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL2F1L3BvZGNhc3RzL3BvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbWljaGVsbGUtZ3JhdHRhbi5yc3M"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation-4/politics-with-michelle-grattan"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> <a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/Politics-with-Michelle-Grattan-p227852/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://radiopublic.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-WRElBZ"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/5NkaSQoUERalaLBQAqUOcC"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237984/original/file-20180925-149976-1ks72uy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" width="268" height="82"></a> </p>
<h2>Additional audio</h2>
<p><a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score/Lee_Rosevere_-_The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score_-_10_A_List_of_Ways_to_Die">A List of Ways to Die</a>, Lee Rosevere, from Free Music Archive.</p>
<h2>Image</h2>
<p>AAP Image/Luke Costin</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112702/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Sydney electorate of Warringah will be one of the most fascinating battlegrounds in the May election, with a high profile independent Zali Stegall challenging former prime minister Tony Abbott.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1114222019-02-10T19:15:55Z2019-02-10T19:15:55ZCould Tony Abbott lose to an independent? If the zeitgeist is any guide, he’s on thin ice<p>Strangely enough, there’s a link between “Kevin07” as an electoral phenomenon and the recent successes of independents such as Kerryn Phelps (Wentworth), Cathy McGowan (Indi), and Rebekha Sharkie (Mayo). All three now hold once safe Coalition seats.</p>
<p>And the link is one that may prove influential in 2019, particularly for Zali Steggall, who is challenging Tony Abbott in Warringah.</p>
<p>As in the case of Kevin07, the formerly Coalition-friendly independents, which is also how Steggall positions herself, found a way of giving life-long centre-right voters permission to break ranks without feeling like they were being disloyal. </p>
<p>The aim is to present as essentially similar to the incumbent conservative, but better. Modernised. Updated. </p>
<p>The implicit message to voters was that it was their party that had left them, not the other way around. </p>
<p>Such a sentiment may be ripe for expression in Warringah which, while economically conservative, has emerged as demonstrably more progressive than its long-time MP, Abbott. The blue-ribbon jewel was among the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/1800.0%7E2017%7EMain%20Features%7ENew%20South%20Wales%7E9">most pro-equality electorates</a> in the country in the 2017 postal survey. </p>
<p>Beaten only by Wentworth, the two inner-Sydney electorates were the leading Liberal-held “yes” seats in NSW. </p>
<p>And it is to these voters that new and fresh quasi-independent candidates like Steggall seek to speak – voters whose Liberal loyalties have been tested by Abbott’s blunt antipathy for social reform and particularly his denial of tough Australian action against global warming. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-trounced-in-huge-wentworth-swing-bringing-a-hung-parliament-105351">Liberals trounced in huge Wentworth swing, bringing a hung parliament</a>
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<h2>Labor’s unusual ‘07 campaign</h2>
<p>The trick is to be close, but not the same, and it has a record of working in conservative-minded electorates. </p>
<p>Underpinning Kevin Rudd’s defeat of John Howard in 2007 was a carefully calibrated reassurance that Howard’s Australia – in which political correctness had been demonised and social reform moved at a glacial pace – would continue even with a change to a Labor government.</p>
<p>Labor’s plan was to strip the election of the usual contrast between parties, reducing the choice before voters to John Howard or a kind of John Howard 2.0.</p>
<p>In a number of ways, Rudd presented as a prime ministerial simulacrum, updated but only where required to: prioritise “working families”, take faster action on climate change, and offer an exciting public investment bridge to the digital future (the NBN). </p>
<p>So successful was this unusual proposition, it tended to minimise other policy differences between the parties and neutralise the usual fear of change itself among cautious voters.</p>
<p>From a marketing perspective, it was daring given Rudd was in fact the leader of the opposing Labor Party.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/democracy-is-dead-long-live-political-marketing-2666">Democracy is dead, long live political marketing</a>
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<p>Crucially, it sought simultaneously to share in the government’s credit for economic stewardship – moderate inflation, strong employment, and a <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/BudgetReview_2007-_2008/Key_Features">healthy budget surplus</a> again – while outflanking Howard on his right.</p>
<p>Of course there was more to the 2007 changeover than mere campaigning, not least being Howard’s odious industrial relations laws (WorkChoices), an inconvenient <a href="https://www.forbes.com/2007/11/07/australia-rates-howard-markets-econ-cx_rd_1107markets16.html#29cb265c7f60">mid-campaign cash rate hike</a> (to 6.75%), and simple fatigue after a dozen years of Coalition rule.</p>
<p>Even so, there’s no denying that with his lay-preacher persona, non-union background, and claim to be fiscally conservative, Rudd deftly positioned himself as the safe choice for those voters considering change but still concerned with budget discipline and creeping permissiveness.</p>
<p>Similar to Labor’s 2007 strategy, Phelps, McGowan and Sharkie have offered the tribally conservative voter a reduced-risk alternative to the status quo. Or, as some have coined it, “continuity through change”. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-podcast-cathy-mcgowan-and-rebekha-sharkie-on-the-role-of-community-candidates-103169">Politics Podcast: Cathy McGowan and Rebekha Sharkie on the role of community candidates</a>
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<p>But there are also key differences. While Rudd promised measured economic modernisation in a socially-conservative manifesto - opposing same-sex marriage, for example - the new breed of once-were-Liberals flip that around. </p>
<p>They tend to emphasise the low tax, pro-business instincts of conservatives, but are more left-leaning on social policy and the environment. This turns out to reflect much of the electorate also – including many Liberal voters.</p>
<h2>Can Steggall do the same in Warringah?</h2>
<p>It’s a formula with a particular piquancy now given 2019 marks ten years since Tony Abbott rolled Malcolm Turnbull for the Liberal leadership over emissions trading. </p>
<p>An acrimonious decade on, and with no government climate or energy policy to speak of, voters’ patience has been strained to breaking point. The endless point-scoring and division has nudged moderately inclined Liberals within the grasp of new independents.</p>
<p>Fittingly, these events are coming to a head most threateningly for the government in Abbott’s own stronghold of Warringah. </p>
<p>Abbott’s vulnerability turns on three things: the standing of the Morrison government come polling day (which may or may not have improved), the campaign prowess of the Steggall operation (unknown), and the extent of declining loyalty by once solid supporters in his electorate. All are in flux.</p>
<p>Steggall’s threshold objective must be to drive Abbott’s primary vote south of 45%. That will not be easy. In 2016, his primary vote tanked by some 9% but he still managed to hold the seat without need for <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/warr/">second preferences at 51.65%</a>.</p>
<p>Still, if the zeitgeist is any guide, Steggall’s presentation as “the Liberal for the future against the Liberal for the past” will be appealing to those voters peeved at Abbott’s undermining of Turnbull and specifically the right-wing insurgency against the government’s National Energy Guarantee. </p>
<p>It could also resonate strongly with Liberal backers who were appalled at Abbott’s starring, if roundly ineffective, campaign against marriage equality.</p>
<p>Despite its unwavering support for Abbott through nine elections, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/1800.0%7E2017%7EMain%20Features%7EResults%7E1">Warringah voted</a> “yes” to legalising same-sex marriage at the rate of 75% compared to the national rate of 62%. It even exceeded support in the most progressive jurisdiction – the ACT.</p>
<p>Steggall’s backers believe Abbott’s famous resistance to a reform his constituents found uncontroversial will prove it is his failure to move with the times that will force them to move their votes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111422/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Kenny does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Just as with Kevin07, formerly Coalition-friendly independents gave life-long centre-right voters a way to break ranks without feeling like they were being disloyal. Zali Steggall is doing the same.Mark Kenny, Senior Fellow, Australian Studies Institute, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.