tag:theconversation.com,2011:/nz/topics/zero-emissions-66462/articlesZero emissions – The Conversation2024-01-04T21:26:13Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2200902024-01-04T21:26:13Z2024-01-04T21:26:13ZHow Canadian courts are taking on climate change<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/how-canadian-courts-are-taking-on-climate-change" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Courts around the world are increasingly being asked to determine <a href="https://theconversation.com/montana-youth-win-unprecedented-climate-case-what-does-this-ruling-mean-for-canada-211647">whether governments</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-fossil-fuel-reliant-governments-climate-action-should-start-at-home-200621">Crown corporations</a> <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-from-montana-to-ontario-youth-take-to-the-courts-as-a-last-resort-to/">are doing enough to address climate change.</a></p>
<p>In the famous <em>Urgenda</em> case, the Dutch Supreme Court <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-a-dutch-supreme-court-decision-on-climate-change-and-human-rights-means-for-canada-146383">ordered a binding emissions reduction target on the national government.</a> In the past few weeks, courts <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/01/belgian-court-orders-faster-emissions-cuts-as-countrys-climate-targets-insufficient">in Belgium</a> <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-court-finds-govt-climate-policy-unlawful-orders-emergency-action-2023-11-30/">and Germany</a> have ordered greater emissions reductions from national governments.</p>
<p>Closer to home, Canada’s Federal Court of Appeal recently <a href="https://canlii.ca/t/k1qs8">decided that two constitutional challenges against the government’s inadequate climate policies can go to trial</a>. In essence, the court found the claims <a href="https://digitalcommons.osgoode.yorku.ca/scholarly_works/1126/">were “justiciable</a>” — that is, they can be decided by the courts. This decision sets an important precedent that will likely increase the courts’ influence on climate policy.</p>
<p>The growing influence of courts is itself a contentious institutional phenomenon. It accepts that courts are an appropriate way to resolve the hotly contested issues at the centre of climate policy. This means that unelected judges have the power to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jel/eqab026">scrutinize decisions made by elected officials and expert regulators.</a></p>
<h2>‘Justiciability 101’</h2>
<p>The debate surrounding the courts’ role in climate policy partly plays out through the <a href="https://jps.library.utoronto.ca/index.php/utjle/article/view/33797">doctrine of justiciability</a>, which allows judges to strike claims that aren’t well-suited to be resolved by the courts.</p>
<p>Justiciability marks the <a href="https://canlii.ca/t/1ft4w">line between what should be decided by courts versus other government branches</a>. In the past, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-youth-climate-court-case-failed-and-whats-next-for-canadian-climate-policy-149064">Canadian courts indicated climate change fell on the other side of that line</a>.</p>
<p>In 2008, <a href="https://canlii.ca/t/2199k">the Federal Court found that a claim seeking to enforce Canada’s obligations under the Kyoto Protocol was non-justiciable</a> because the applicable law did not allow for court enforcement.</p>
<p>In 2012, <a href="https://canlii.ca/t/fs9wr">the same court decided that the federal government’s decision to leave the Kyoto Protocol was also not a matter for the courts</a>.</p>
<h2>A turning tide?</h2>
<p>In December 2023, the Federal Court of Appeal <a href="https://canlii.ca/t/k1qs8">examined two constitutional challenges to federal climate policy</a>. </p>
<p>The first was a <a href="https://davidsuzuki.org/project/youth-climate-lawsuit/">youth-led challenge</a> to current federal climate policy based on its disproportionate harms to young people. The second one involved two <a href="http://www.wetsuweten.com/culture/house-groups/">Wet’suwet’en House</a> groups claiming that federal climate policy violated their rights under the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms.</p>
<p>According to the lower court, these challenges were <a href="https://canlii.ca/t/jb8f7">“too political” for courts to resolve</a> and <a href="https://canlii.ca/t/jbn58">better left to legislators and government officials.</a></p>
<p>The lower court rulings put an early end to both challenges, <a href="https://jps.library.utoronto.ca/index.php/utjle/article/view/38225/29149">preventing judicial scrutiny of claims of rights violations.</a> They also cut off an opportunity to establish <a href="https://www.cba.org/Sections/Public-Sector-Lawyers/Resources/Resources/2021/PSLEssayWinner2021">a pro-climate precedent for future cases.</a></p>
<p>In an important shift, the Federal Court of Appeal <a href="https://canlii.ca/t/k1qs8">reversed the lower court’s decisions</a>. In a direct rebuke, the appeal court ruled that climate change may be justiciable even if it raises complex or controversial issues.</p>
<p>According to the court, claims are justiciable so long as they have a “<a href="https://canlii.ca/t/k1qs8">legal anchor</a>” — some legal or regulatory link to the claim. In the challenges at issue, the court found that the federal government’s commitments under the Paris Agreement provided a sufficient legal anchor. It viewed these commitments as serving as an objective basis to consider the claims.</p>
<p>This broader approach to justiciability will likely open the door to more climate claims. It builds on recent judicial decisions that have held legislated rules like <a href="https://canlii.ca/t/jwq17">emissions reduction targets</a> and <a href="https://canlii.ca/t/jtzsj">climate reporting requirements</a> can be challenged before the courts.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/court-decision-in-youth-climate-lawsuit-against-ontario-government-ignites-hope-206275">Court decision in youth climate lawsuit against Ontario government ignites hope</a>
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<h2>Perverse incentives?</h2>
<p>Perhaps inadvertently, a “legal anchor” approach to justiciability creates an anti-regulatory bias. Governments expose themselves to court challenges when they enact laws and regulations, but not when they merely make policy statements.</p>
<p>As a result, climate action receives greater judicial scrutiny than climate inaction. This approach fails to capture how government inaction can itself be a political decision affecting constitutional and other rights. For this reason, <a href="https://canlii.ca/t/j1ghh">some courts</a> have maintained that challenges to government inaction are legitimate. The Federal Court of Appeal’s broader understanding of what constitutes a legal anchor may also alleviate this issue.</p>
<p>But a legal anchor approach raises other concerns. The rejection of non-justiciable claims based on the absence of laws and regulations — legal anchors — shows a deference to <a href="https://lpeproject.org/blog/no-law-without-politics-no-politics-without-law/">existing political processes</a> that can disadvantage youth, <a href="https://www.elections.ca/res/rec/part/abel/AEP_en.pdf">Indigenous Peoples</a> <a href="https://canlii.ca/t/gffz5">and others</a> who lack political clout.</p>
<p>If these groups are unable to achieve results through political means, a narrow approach to what constitutes a legal anchor also limits their access to legal change.</p>
<h2>The future role of courts</h2>
<p>Going forward, <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/report/global-climate-litigation-report-2023-status-review">the increase in cases related to climate change and climate policy</a> will test the balance between courts and other government branches.</p>
<p>In the past, Canadian courts have generally not shied away from other complex and controversial issues, including <a href="https://canlii.ca/t/g2f56">prostitution</a>, <a href="https://canlii.ca/t/jv4mz">mandatory minimum sentences</a> and even <a href="https://canlii.ca/t/1fqr3">Québec independence</a>.</p>
<p>Now those most suffering the effects of climate change want and need courts to act on climate <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-litigation-is-on-the-rise-around-the-world-and-australia-is-at-the-head-of-the-pack-210375">when governments fail to do so</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220090/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steve Lorteau receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Green receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC).</span></em></p>A recent Federal Court of Appeal decision opens the door for more climate cases to be brought before the courts. Will they answer the call?Steve Lorteau, SJD Candidate, Faculty of Law, University of TorontoAndrew Green, Professor and Metcalf Chair in Environmental Law, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2189302023-12-04T04:00:29Z2023-12-04T04:00:29ZTwo charts in Australia’s 2023 climate statement show we are way off track for net zero by 2050<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563183/original/file-20231204-16-c3vl5c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C8%2C5706%2C3784&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/perth-australia-march-10-2023-highway-2273584563">Adwo, Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen has <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/speeches/annual-climate-change-statement-parliament-0">announced Australia is “within striking distance”</a> of the government’s 2030 emissions reduction target.</p>
<p>The good news was in the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/strategies/annual-climate-change-statement-2023">2023 Climate Statement</a> he tabled in parliament late last week. </p>
<p>Our commitment under the Paris Agreement is to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 43% relative to 2005 levels by 2030, and to reach net zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, a closer look at the statement suggests Australia is unlikely to achieve net zero by 2050 in the absence of radical policy changes. The problem can be seen in the following charts, included in the statement.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-1005" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/1005/8c0b99253c5dbedadfd4d2db9729d8e447341dbd/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The devil in the detail</h2>
<p>At first sight, the picture looks encouraging. Total emissions, represented by the yellow line, have declined greatly since the peak just after 2005. The trajectory looks consistent with net zero by 2050. The red dotted line, taking account of additional measures planned by the government, but not yet committed, lowers emissions a bit further.</p>
<p>A closer look leads to a gloomier conclusion. Nearly all of the reduction arises from just two categories: electricity and “LULUCF”, which stands for “<a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/land-use/workstreams/land-use--land-use-change-and-forestry-lulucf">land use, land-use change and forestry</a>”. </p>
<p>This can be seen by turning to the original source of the data. The Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water provides a graph showing the same data, but with the different sources of emissions shown separately, rather than being stacked as they were in the previous graph.</p>
<p><iframe id="vSeop" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vSeop/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The decline in electricity emissions reflects the rapid replacement of coal and gas-fired electricity by renewables (mainly solar power, wind and hydro, firmed by battery storage). This transition is well underway, and likely to continue. </p>
<p>The bad news is the transition to renewable electricity will be complete around 2035, after which there can be no further reductions.</p>
<p>The other main source of declining (in fact, negative) emissions is a grab bag of measures such as reductions in land clearing. There is debate over whether reductions from this source are genuine and sustainable. But the big decline in emissions from land use, land use change and forestry was over by 2015. As with electricity, there is little hope of future emissions reductions from this source.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-will-underwrite-risky-investments-in-renewables-heres-why-thats-a-good-idea-218427">The government will underwrite risky investments in renewables – here's why that's a good idea</a>
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<h2>How can we further reduce emissions?</h2>
<p>The biggest remaining sources of emissions are transport, stationary energy (heating and burning fuel for industry), “fugitive” emissions from coal and gas production, and agriculture. </p>
<p>All of these are projected to remain roughly constant between now and 2035, and there is little reason to expect sharp declines after that, at least under current policies. So, on our current trajectory, we are unlikely to get much below 50% of 2005 emissions, let alone net zero, by 2050.</p>
<p>Looking at the sectors individually, emissions from agriculture are difficult to reduce, unless we also reduce production, particularly of meat. There have been lots of proposals to reduce emissions of methane from ruminants (mostly belches), but none has appeared practical so far. That means deeper reductions will be needed in other sectors.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/7-food-and-agriculture-innovations-needed-to-protect-the-climate-and-feed-a-rapidly-growing-world-218414">7 food and agriculture innovations needed to protect the climate and feed a rapidly growing world</a>
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<p>In the case of transport and stationary energy, there are few technological obstacles to the achievement of drastic emissions reductions. The technology to electrify land transport, heating and most industrial processes is readily available. But there seems to be little government urgency to implement this technology.</p>
<p>As far as households are concerned, the crucial requirements are to replace internal combustion engine vehicles with electrics, and to replace gas for home use with electricity. Both are entirely feasible and, if we made a determined start today, the transition could be complete before 2050. </p>
<p>But that would require a rapid end to the purchase of new vehicles with internal combustion engines and of new gas connections for households. Neither seems likely.</p>
<p>The government’s <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/transport/national-electric-vehicle-strategy">National Electric Vehicles strategy</a> released in April, included a <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/joint-media-release-australias-first-national-electric-vehicle-strategy-drive-cleaner-cheaper-run-vehicles">commitment to a Fuel Efficiency Standard</a> for new light vehicles. The draft standard was supposed to be released this year, but has not yet appeared. </p>
<p>Unless the standard is considerably more stringent than appears likely at present, the dominant position of polluting vehicles in new sales is likely to persist for some time.</p>
<p>The government rejected the recommendations of the Climate Change Authority in this area. The authority proposed a standard for heavy vehicles, and an end to polluting light vehicle sales by 2040. On this basis, there will be millions of dirty cars and trucks with internal combustion engines still on the road by 2050.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-how-will-australia-navigate-domestic-climate-wins-and-fossil-fuel-exports-at-the-negotiating-table-218697">COP28: How will Australia navigate domestic climate wins and fossil fuel exports at the negotiating table?</a>
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<h2>A disturbing pattern of inaction</h2>
<p>The same pattern of inaction applies to electrification of home energy. The Victorian government has taken the lead on banning gas connections, and the Authority recommended adopting a national approach. But <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/speeches/annual-climate-change-statement-parliament-0">Bowen declined</a>, saying “the government does not support a national ban on gas connections to new homes”.</p>
<p>Even more concerning are projections for fugitive emissions from coal and gas production. These are effectively flat, implying the government expects production to continue at current levels indefinitely into the future. In turn, this implies that, as well as failing to deliver on its own 2050 net zero pledge, the government is betting the world as a whole will fail at this. Sadly, they may be right.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-could-australia-actually-get-to-net-zero-heres-how-217778">How could Australia actually get to net zero? Here's how</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a former member of the Climate Change Authority.</span></em></p>Australia’s latest climate change statement shows we have little hope of reaching net zero emissions by 2050. There’s good news on the 2030 target, but then what?John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2097072023-08-01T12:54:58Z2023-08-01T12:54:58ZHow board games can get people involved in climate action<p>The dangerous wildfires <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/wildfires-map-greece-rhodes-corfu-portugal-b2382825.html">burning across Europe</a> show us how real the climate crisis has become. When we see these disasters on the news, it’s clear we need to take action on climate change now. But it can still be hard to really understand how. That’s where tabletop games can help. </p>
<p>Tabletop games (board games, card games, role-playing games – anything that can be played around a table) have a unique ability to engage players in complex systems.
Experiencing a scary imaginary future in a game can inspire players to take action in the real world. Games engage our brains in a different way than just hearing news about climate disasters. And they can prepare us to make better choices. </p>
<p>It’s similar to how Dungeons & Dragons pulls you into an imaginary magical world. Climate crisis games pull you into possible futures where our real-life choices shape our current and future climate. </p>
<p>Board games like the soon-to-be-launched <a href="https://www.daybreakgame.org/">Daybreak</a>, and <a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/214887/co-second-chance">CO₂: Second Chance</a> and card game <a href="https://treecer.com/en/store/product/tipping-point">Tipping Point</a> introduce players to the effects of the climate crisis, forcing them to adapt their strategies to survive and thrive. They also foster dialogue, providing a shared experience that players can discuss, debate and learn from.</p>
<p>As a game designer and academic working in the sphere of science communication, I have a unique perspective on the intersection of gaming and the climate crisis. My work in <a href="https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009009">designing games</a> such as <a href="https://www.laurenceking.com/products/carbon-city-zero">Carbon City Zero</a> and <a href="https://jcom.sissa.it/article/pubid/JCOM_1804_2019_A04/">Catan: Global Warming</a> has provided me with valuable insights into the power of games as tools for communication and education.</p>
<p>While digital and online games such as <a href="https://www.playstation.com/en-gb/games/horizon-forbidden-west/">Horizon: Forbidden West</a> and <a href="https://store.steampowered.com/app/1593030/Terra_Nil/">Terra Nil</a> are also a powerful way of generating conversations about the climate crisis, the very act of getting around a table to play tabletop games means they create a more immediate opportunity for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/1873-3468.13891">actually talking and collaborating</a>. </p>
<h2>Education and motivation</h2>
<p>When we started designing Carbon City Zero in 2018, my fellow gamemaker Paul Wake and I worked with charity and climate experts <a href="https://www.wearepossible.org/">Possible</a>. Our goal was to make a fun game that could also help players understand the complicated problem of climate change. </p>
<p>In the game, players have to make some tough choices. Like choosing between energy sources that are cheaper right now versus ones that are better for the environment long-term. We also added event cards about topics such as misinformation and <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org.uk/news/what-is-greenwashing/">greenwashing</a> – when companies make misleading claims about the green credentials of their products or practices while hiding unsustainable activities. </p>
<p>Throughout the game, players see how choices they make affect the environment over time. They have to try to steer their city to zero carbon emissions. This helps them feel the challenges of fighting climate change in a hands-on way.</p>
<p>Possible worked with us to facilitate development sessions with climate scientists, activists, industry representatives and policymakers. We could then use this expertise and experience to make a game that simulates the real, tough trade-offs and chain reactions of climate change. We wanted players to grasp climate issues by experiencing them first-hand, not just hearing about them.</p>
<p>Similarly, with Catan: Global Warming, we sought to introduce the impacts of the climate crisis into the familiar framework of a popular board game (by 2020, more than 32 million copies of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catan">Catan</a> had been sold in 40 languages). This allowed us to reach a broad audience and spark conversations about the climate crisis in a new and engaging way.</p>
<p>Through these experiences, I’ve seen firsthand how games can inspire players to learn about the climate crisis and motivate them to act. As we face the urgent challenges ahead, I believe that such games can play a crucial role in fostering understanding, dialogue and action.</p>
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<h2>The ‘magic circle’ and climate action</h2>
<p>In gaming theory, the “<a href="https://gdt.stanford.edu/what-is-the-magic-circle/">magic circle</a>” refers to the psychological space where the normal rules and realities of the world are suspended and replaced by the game’s artificial reality. This concept allows players to experiment with different strategies and outcomes without real-world consequences.</p>
<p>In the context of the climate crisis, the magic circle can serve as a powerful tool. It enables the simulation of climate crisis impacts and the testing of various strategies to help reduce those impacts. Games also offer unique opportunities for roleplay, allowing players to assume different characters and experience the world from different perspectives. This can foster empathy and understanding around the climate crisis.</p>
<p>For example, in Tipping Point, players are tasked with constructing cities while simultaneously navigating extreme weather events. This mirrors the real-world challenge of maintaining environmental equilibrium in the face of escalating resource consumption.</p>
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<h2>Games as catalysts for action</h2>
<p>Games can serve as a potent tool for instilling the notion of taking effective action when it comes to climate issues. They transform the abstract concept of the climate crisis into a tangible and immediate experience. They encourage creative problem-solving, presenting challenging scenarios that require innovative solutions. Crucially, games create a sense of agency, showing players that their actions can make a difference – especially when they combine their efforts.</p>
<p>In the collaborative game Daybreak, for example, each participant steps into the shoes of a distinct global entity – be it China, Europe, the US or the global north. The shared objective is straightforward yet challenging: strive to achieve zero emissions before the planet warms by 2°C, or before too many of your communities are plunged into crisis.</p>
<p>By exploring these fast-approaching realities, games can motivate players to come up with real-world climate solutions, and to really think about how personal and collective actions can contribute. Playing the game fosters a cooperative mindset that players can carry into the real world.</p>
<p>Examining this intersection between gaming and climate action is not merely an academic exercise, but a practical tool I believe can play a significant role in our collective response to the environmental challenges we face.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sam Illingworth is co-designer of the board games Carbon City Zero and Catan: Global Warming.</span></em></p>Climate change board games can help players grasp the issues by experiencing them first-hand.Sam Illingworth, Associate Professor, Department of Learning and Teaching Enhancement, Edinburgh Napier UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2009032023-03-28T20:24:26Z2023-03-28T20:24:26ZCanada needs to synchronize its climate policies for effective emission control<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517848/original/file-20230328-19-5goys1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C93%2C5643%2C3589&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Despite Canada's numerous greenhouse gas reduction policies, these stubbornly high emissions are only now showing signs of falling. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>National, provincial and territorial governments across Canada have implemented a <a href="https://440megatonnes.ca/policy-tracker/">myriad of policies</a> to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in recent years. However, these stubbornly high emissions have <a href="https://climateinstitute.ca/news/early-estimate-of-national-emissions-shows-canada-steadily-separating-economic-growth-from-emissions/">only just started</a> showing signs of falling. </p>
<p>In principle, each level of government is working toward <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/pan-canadian-framework.html">the same goal</a>. Yet, the approaches they use vary in effort, design and coverage — with some emissions sources covered by multiple policies while others remain unregulated.</p>
<p>To achieve our emissions goals, we need federal, provincial and territorial policies paddling in the same direction in addition to synchronized efforts to maximize our impact. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2023.2185586">our new study</a>, recently published in <em>Climate Policy</em>, we examine the development and design of climate policy mixes across Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario and Québec, as well as at the federal level, and evaluate their expected impact on emissions abatement. </p>
<h2>Regulatory sticks over policy carrots</h2>
<p>Over the last 20 years, the number and types of climate policies implemented in Canada and globally have expanded dramatically. </p>
<p>Policy “carrots” — economic incentives, such as subsidies for low-carbon technologies — are by far the most common policy type and have also been found to be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.02.027">more politically popular</a>. But, it is the mandatory regulations — the regulatory “sticks” — including carbon pricing and <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/august-2021/bending-the-emissions-curve-requires-flexibility/">flexible regulations</a> that are expected to do most of the heavy lifting.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An EV charging station in Ontario" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517851/original/file-20230328-14-8tn2ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517851/original/file-20230328-14-8tn2ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517851/original/file-20230328-14-8tn2ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517851/original/file-20230328-14-8tn2ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517851/original/file-20230328-14-8tn2ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517851/original/file-20230328-14-8tn2ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517851/original/file-20230328-14-8tn2ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Incentivizing electric vehicle adoption while decarbonizing our electricity grid can create greater emissions reduction than choosing either policy alone.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Doug Ives</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While the increased effort toward implementing climate policies across jurisdictions is good, <a href="https://ecofiscal.ca/reports/supporting-carbon-pricing-complementary-policies/">synchronized policy decisions</a> are better. </p>
<p>We see many instances of overlapping policies across provinces that can support or undermine our emissions reduction objectives. Most policy interactions (74 per cent) help reduce additional emissions. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0877-y">For example</a>, incentivizing electric vehicle adoption while decarbonizing our electricity grid can create greater emissions reduction than either policy can on its own.</p>
<p>However, interactions between overlapping policies — particularly across provincial/territorial and federal levels — can also lead to unintended consequences that undermine our policy objectives. </p>
<p>For instance, electric vehicles earn credits under the federal vehicle emissions standards in excess of their actual emissions intensity (prior to policy changes coming in 2025). </p>
<p>This can mean that when additional provincial policies incentivize the adoption of electric vehicles, like <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/electricity-alternative-energy/transportation-energies/clean-transportation-policies-programs/zero-emission-vehicles-act#:%7E:text=The%20ZEV%20Act%20requires%20automakers,2030%20and%20100%25%20by%202040.">B.C.’s zero emission vehicle sales mandate</a>, they allow even higher emissions intensities from the rest of the vehicle fleet while still meeting the federal standard. This <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2019.04.003">can result in a net increase in emissions</a>. </p>
<h2>Need for synchronized climate policies</h2>
<p>Understanding how policies work together is critically important. </p>
<p>Consider the case of <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/pricing-pollution-how-it-will-work.html">Canada’s alternative approaches to carbon pricing</a>. When additional policies are imposed to reduce emissions from fuels covered by the federal carbon tax, the incentive from the carbon price adds on to the incentive from the other policy.</p>
<p>This is because the increase in cost of higher polluting goods from the carbon tax does not change in the presence of additional policy. For example, in British Columbia, fossil fuel use for transportation is disincentivized by both the province’s <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/environment/climate-change/clean-economy/carbon-tax">carbon tax</a> and <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/electricity-alternative-energy/transportation-energies/renewable-low-carbon-fuels">low-carbon fuel standard</a>. </p>
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<p>However, the interaction differs when the additional policies to reduce emissions are also covered under a cap-and-trade program. Cap-and-trade programs set a limit on the total greenhouse gas emissions from regulated sectors such as electricity, transportation and heavy industry. </p>
<p>A set quantity of emissions allowances are then allocated or auctioned to firms by the government. These allowances are then used to account for that firm’s greenhouse gas emissions. This is seen in the provinces of <a href="https://www.environnement.gouv.qc.ca/changementsclimatiques/marche-carbone_en.asp">Québec</a> and <a href="https://climatechange.novascotia.ca/nova-scotias-cap-trade-program">Nova Scotia</a>, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/nova-scotia-amends-cap-and-trade-rules-nova-scotia-power-1.6784978">for now</a>.</p>
<p>Additional policies can reduce emissions from sectors covered by the cap and with it, the demand for emissions allowances. This makes it easier to achieve the limit set by the cap. However, since the limit set by the emissions cap remains unchanged, additional policies don’t necessarily contribute to any additional emissions reduction, but simply shift costs and emissions between activities. </p>
<p>Such interactions have important implications for how we compare the stringency of carbon pricing systems across Canada in relation to the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/pricing-pollution-how-it-will-work/carbon-pollution-pricing-federal-benchmark-information.html">federal benchmark</a>. </p>
<h2>Paddling together</h2>
<p>Provinces across the country vary in their economic structure, access to energy resources and political ideologies. So it is no surprise that alternative policy approaches are being pursued.</p>
<p>For instance, Alberta, which relied on the <a href="https://www.iisd.org/publications/search-prosperity-oil-alberta-canada">oil and gas sector for nearly 25 per cent of GDP and 10 per cent of government revenue in 2019</a>, has implemented about half the number of policies as the other provinces studied. </p>
<p>However, ensuring policies work together to achieve our goals requires <a href="https://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/parl_otp_201803_e_42883.html">greater co-ordination</a> and co-operation across, and between, governance levels. Re-invigorated inter-governmental bodies like the <a href="https://ccme.ca/">Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment</a> offer a path in this direction. </p>
<p>The variety of policies implemented across the country also highlight the importance of evaluating policy choices within the context of the broader policy mix — a key consideration for climate accountability bodies such as the <a href="https://nzab2050.ca/">Net-Zero Advisory Body</a> and <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/environment/climate-change/planning-and-action/advisory-council">B.C. Climate Solutions Council</a>. </p>
<p>We are all in the same boat. And if everyone is paddling in their own direction, we can veer off course and make it even harder to reach our destination. To propel us efficiently towards our emissions targets, policies and programs across national and provincial jurisdictions need to paddle together.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200903/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Scott receives funding from Stanford University and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. He also holds affiliations with the University of Calgary and the Canadian Climate Institute. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ekaterina Rhodes receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council Insight Development Grant # 430-2020-00214. </span></em></p>While the introduction of more climate policies across jurisdictions is good, synchronized policy decisions are better.William Scott, PhD Candidate, Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford UniversityEkaterina Rhodes, Assistant Professor, School of Public Administration, University of VictoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1977862023-02-05T12:54:20Z2023-02-05T12:54:20ZElectric vehicles are now trending. But where can we charge them?<p>Canada is on the road to transformation in mobility. The federal government recently announced its <a href="https://tc.canada.ca/en/road-transportation/innovative-technologies/zero-emission-vehicles/canada-s-zero-emission-vehicle-zev-sales-targets">zero-emission vehicle sales target</a>, which requires all light-duty passenger vehicles sold by 2035 to be zero-emission.</p>
<p>Battery electric vehicles (EVs) are likely to make up the majority of these sales. This means that hundreds of thousands of <a href="https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/sites/nrcan/files/energy/cpcin/2022-ev-charging-assesment-report-eng.pdf">EV charging points need to be installed in homes</a>, workplaces, retail spaces and along highway corridors in the coming years.</p>
<p>Most EV charging occurs at home and <a href="https://www.pollutionprobe.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Pollution-Probe-.Consumer-EV-charging-Experience.pdf">85 per cent of current EV owners</a> in Canada live in single-family residences with dedicated parking. The demand for EVs among apartment and condo dwellers has been limited, given the challenges associated with installing EV charging points in multi-unit residential buildings (MURBs). </p>
<p>But how can Canadians living in these buildings participate in an electric future? How can governments facilitate their inclusion? <a href="https://www.csagroup.org/article/public-policy/ensuring-equity-accessibility-and-reliability-across-canadas-electric-vehicle-charging-network/">A recent report</a> from the <a href="https://www.csagroup.org/public-policy/">CSA Public Policy Centre</a>, where I hold an executive position, proposes a number of policy considerations for governments to deploy EV charging infrastructure equitably, incorporate accessible design practices, ensure reliability and promote inclusive payment options.</p>
<h2>Barriers to EV-equipped MURBs</h2>
<p>Property owners face a <a href="https://www.pollutionprobe.org/wp-content/uploads/ZEV-Charging-in-MURBs-and-for-Garage-Orphans-1.pdf">long list of barriers</a> to installing charging points in multi-unit residential buildings, including technical, financial and regulatory issues. </p>
<p>While new buildings are <a href="https://electricautonomy.ca/2022/05/16/ev-charging-canada-murbs/">increasingly designed with EV-ready parking spaces</a> that are equipped with sufficient electrical capacity and infrastructure required to install charging points, it is particularly challenging to adapt existing buildings. </p>
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<p>If a MURB has a parking area, electricity may be bulk-metered (i.e., shared equally among occupants), individually metered but not connected to parking spaces, or the parking spaces may not be “EV-ready.” When retrofits are required, they can be complex and costly.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/drive/article-condo-retrofit-ev-electric-cars/">In some condominiums</a>, rules require a minimum number of members to approve the installation of EV charging, and rental housing landlords can be reluctant to invest in long-term EV infrastructure when tenancy is short-term.</p>
<p>As a result, property owners have been slow to pursue EV charging projects. And when they do, they are more likely to make incremental changes like installing EV charging in one parking space at a time rather than <a href="https://emc-mec.ca/wp-content/uploads/EMC-Position-Paper-EV-Ready-Parking-2022.02.24-Formatted-EMC-Format.pdf">comprehensive retrofits</a>. Not only is this more expensive, but buildings with limited electrical capacity will direct that capacity to early adopters, who tend to be higher-income earners, at the expense of occupants who will need access later.</p>
<p>This raises real concerns around equity. Multi-unit residential building residents, particularly renters in older apartment buildings, are more likely to be <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/46-28-0001/462800012021001-eng.htm">low-income, racialized and immigrant individuals and families</a>. While EV ownership rates are low among these groups currently, they will need charging access as EV adoption accelerates. </p>
<p>However, tenants also face an unequal power dynamic when requesting EV charging access from a landlord. If upgrades are pursued, the costs may be passed on to tenants, which disproportionately burdens those on the lower end of the income scale. </p>
<h2>Inclusive and equitable low-carbon transportation</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy-efficiency/transportation-alternative-fuels/advancing-the-future-zero-emission-vehicles/24458">Federal</a>, <a href="https://files.constantcontact.com/a9c2cbbe201/ce43e985-9987-4c4c-b698-0481ce7fded3.pdf">provincial and municipal governments</a> are showing considerable commitment to decarbonizing the transportation sector, specifically when it comes to deploying EV charging infrastructure. These commitments must prioritize equity to ensure that no one is left behind in the low-carbon transition. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ooRkO1mELrc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The federal government’s 2035 zero-emission vehicle sales target is just the first step toward decarbonizing Canada’s transportation sector.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Fortunately, policymakers have many of the tools available to them and can learn from leading jurisdictions. </p>
<p><a href="https://electricvehicles.bchydro.com/incentives/charger-rebates/apartment">British Columbia’s EV charger retrofit program</a> provides funding for comprehensive retrofits from the earliest stages, including rebates to cover the costs associated with developing an EV-ready plan, electrical infrastructure to implement the plan and the purchase and installation of individual charging points. </p>
<p>Adoption of a similar approach in the current federal funding program could improve program uptake among MURB property owners, thereby removing a key barrier to EV adoption for MURB residents. In areas that have a density of multi-unit residential areas with limited charging access, installation of publicly accessible fast-charging infrastructure should be prioritized. </p>
<p>Further, government programs should earmark dedicated funds for underserved communities. The federal government can also play a leadership role in promoting nationwide EV charging access in new buildings by adopting “EV-ready” requirements into its national model codes such as the <a href="https://nrc-publications.canada.ca/eng/view/object/?id=515340b5-f4e0-4798-be69-692e4ec423e8">National Building Code</a> or the <a href="https://nrc-publications.canada.ca/eng/view/object/?id=af36747e-3eee-4024-a1b4-73833555c7fa">National Energy Code</a>, which can be voluntarily adopted by provincial governments either in whole or in part.</p>
<p>By learning from other jurisdictions and making purposeful investments, Canada can make an inclusive and equitable transition to low-carbon transportation possible.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197786/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sunil Johal is currently a member of the Expert Panel on Portable Benefits providing advice to the Ontario government on the design and implementation of a portable benefits program and a member of the Expert Panel providing the City of Toronto with advice on its Long Term Financial Plan.</span></em></p>Canada’s zero-emissions vehicle sales target will need hundreds of thousands of EV charging points to be installed in homes, workplaces, retail spaces and along highway corridors in the coming years.Sunil Johal, Professor in Public Policy and Society, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1946492022-11-30T11:28:05Z2022-11-30T11:28:05ZThe days of the hydrogen car are already over<p><a href="https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/brochure.pdf">Hydrogen fuel cell cars</a> emerged as an alternative to both the electric and combustion engine vehicle in the early 2000s. They were widely considered an avenue towards universal green motoring. Powered through a chemical reaction between hydrogen and oxygen, the only tailpipe emission they produce is water. </p>
<p>The technology also promised a traditional driving experience. Drivers can refuel at filling stations and the range of a hydrogen car is comparable to the combustion engine vehicle. Hydrogen vehicle technology also offered oil companies the opportunity to shift their operations towards the production and transportation of hydrogen and hydrogen refuelling at existing stations. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-launches-2-million-competition-to-promote-roll-out-of-hydrogen-fuelled-fleet-vehicles">UK government</a> reiterated its commitment to the technology in 2016 by investing £2 million in the promotion of hydrogen cars to UK businesses. The European Parliament have more recently agreed to set <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20221014IPR43206/car-recharging-stations-should-be-available-every-60-km-say-meps">minimum national targets</a> for the deployment of alternative fuels infrastructure. Under this framework, there will be at least one hydrogen refuelling station every 100km along main EU roads.</p>
<p>But hydrogen cars have now all but disappeared. Toyota and Hyundai, the only vehicle manufacturers to produce hydrogen cars for the UK market, sold just <a href="https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/business-environment-and-energy/why-hydrogen-no-longer-fuel-future">12 hydrogen cars</a> in the country in 2021. Earlier this year, <a href="https://www.electrive.com/2022/10/18/shell-quietly-closes-all-hydrogen-filling-stations-in-the-uk/">Shell closed</a> all of its UK Hydrogen refuelling stations. </p>
<p>Meanwhile electric vehicles, despite not delivering the range or the fast refuelling of a hydrogen car, have surged in popularity. In 2010, <a href="https://www.smmt.co.uk/2012/01/december-2011-ev-and-afv-registrations/">138 electric vehicles</a> were sold in the UK. This grew to roughly <a href="https://www.smmt.co.uk/2022/01/covid-stalls-2021-uk-new-car-market-but-record-ev-sales-show-future-direction/">190,000</a> annual sales in 2021.</p>
<h2>Infrastructure is key</h2>
<p>The vehicle types are not competing with each other outright. Instead, this is a case of competition between national technology systems. And where this is the case, the technically superior product rarely triumphs.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497353/original/file-20221125-7303-wo6gbb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A person choosing between VHS tape recorder options." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497353/original/file-20221125-7303-wo6gbb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497353/original/file-20221125-7303-wo6gbb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497353/original/file-20221125-7303-wo6gbb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497353/original/file-20221125-7303-wo6gbb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497353/original/file-20221125-7303-wo6gbb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497353/original/file-20221125-7303-wo6gbb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497353/original/file-20221125-7303-wo6gbb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">VHS video cassette tapes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/close-hand-chooses-video-cassette-tape-2192207673">Eakrin Rasadonyindee/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Betamax tape recorder failed to take control of the video cassette market in the 1980s, despite being technically superior to its competitors. The lower-quality video home system (VHS) was able to take a dominant share of the market due to their better supply chain infrastructure. As they were <a href="https://www.cnet.com/tech/computing/format-wars-the-tech-that-should-have-won/">stocked</a> in more video rental stores, VHS tapes were simply more accessible than Betamax.</p>
<p>Hydrogen and electric vehicles also depend on broader technological systems. One is based on electricity generation and the other on supplying hydrogen.</p>
<p>Electric vehicles have the advantage of being able to depend on an existing power generation and distribution system – the electrical grid. An electric vehicle can be recharged wherever there is access to a plug socket. </p>
<p>Electric vehicle manufacturer, Tesla, has capitalised on this. Already with a customer base, Tesla was able to build its vehicles and recharging infrastructure simultaneously. They <a href="https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2021-vehicle-production-deliveries">produced</a> over 900,000 new vehicles in 2021 and have installed a global fast charging network of <a href="https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/supercharger">35,000 superchargers</a> to support them.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497343/original/file-20221125-14-vlv0lk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A white Tesla parked at a Tesla fast charging point." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497343/original/file-20221125-14-vlv0lk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497343/original/file-20221125-14-vlv0lk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497343/original/file-20221125-14-vlv0lk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497343/original/file-20221125-14-vlv0lk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497343/original/file-20221125-14-vlv0lk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497343/original/file-20221125-14-vlv0lk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497343/original/file-20221125-14-vlv0lk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tesla have invested in a global fast charging network.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/calgary-alberta-canada-august-23rd-2019-1494953336">canadianPhotographer56/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The infrastructure that exists to support hydrogen vehicles is limited in comparison and will require extensive investment to introduce. The pipeline infrastructure necessary for a European hydrogen distribution system alone is estimated to cost <a href="https://gasforclimate2050.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/EHB-A-European-hydrogen-infrastructure-vision-covering-28-countries.pdf">€80–143 billion</a> (£69–123 billion).</p>
<p>As hydrogen needs to be pressurised and transported either as a gas or a liquid, supply chains must also be redesigned. The cost of developing hydrogen refuelling stations and scaling up hydrogen production will also be extensive. Hydrogen production currently accounts for just <a href="https://www.irena.org/Energy-Transition/Technology/Hydrogen">3% of global energy demand</a>.</p>
<p>But governments and businesses are at present unwilling to make the required investments. There is little economic sense in building the infrastructure if the network of cars is too small to use it. Yet at the same time demand for hydrogen cars will remain low until they are supported with compatible infrastructure.</p>
<h2>Lessons for the hydrogen car</h2>
<p>The introduction of complex technologies and infrastructures have always relied on investment in large scale technology systems. But governments face a choice over which technologies they support.</p>
<p>Investment in technologies to bring public transport systems to cities in developed nations at the turn of the 20th century, to fight wars, and to power modern economies all emerged at a time when <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/139463">governments took responsibility</a> for the need to invest, plan and control production and consumption in the national interest.</p>
<p>Large scale national infrastructure projects including <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep32432#metadata_info_tab_contents">nuclear power</a> and weapons programmes, rail electrification, the development of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2013/sep/09/how-we-made-intercity-125">high-speed trains</a> and <a href="https://www.fai.org/page/icare-history-pioneers">manned space missions</a> all occurred throughout the remainder of the century. They all required coordinated efforts to bring them about. This involved government funding, the creation of new institutions such as Nasa and British Rail, research grants for manufacturers, and <a href="https://history.nasa.gov/moondec.html">the setting of clear targets</a>. </p>
<p>Governments have also been the customers of these technologies. The US government, for example, <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/elon-musks-spacex-wins-us-military-national-security-mission-contract-12047614">awarded</a> Elon Musk’s space technology programme, SpaceX, a contract to conduct national security launches for the US military.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497344/original/file-20221125-26-h9hr74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A train passing through a station at speed." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497344/original/file-20221125-26-h9hr74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497344/original/file-20221125-26-h9hr74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497344/original/file-20221125-26-h9hr74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497344/original/file-20221125-26-h9hr74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497344/original/file-20221125-26-h9hr74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497344/original/file-20221125-26-h9hr74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497344/original/file-20221125-26-h9hr74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">High-speed rail was introduced to the UK in 1976.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/british-high-speed-passenger-train-passing-60627334">Gary Blakeley/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The planning and construction of such systems have always been underpinned by the idea that national interests are at stake. This has been the case whether the motive has been to ensure adequate military defences, to be internationally competitive or to provide societal benefits by launching satellites and developing mass public transport systems.</p>
<p>A mixed automotive economy of hydrogen and electric vehicles could accelerate the transition towards zero emissions. But a viable hydrogen automotive system will need investment on a massive scale. It will require the construction of new and complex technology systems and a fundamental shift in policy thinking and public discourse.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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</figure>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Stacey receives funding from ERDF. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Ivory receives funding from ERDF, FORTE (Sweden).</span></em></p>Hydrogen cars were heralded as an avenue towards universal green motoring, but progress has stalled in recent years.Tom Stacey, Senior Lecturer in Operations and Supply Chain Management, Anglia Ruskin UniversityChris Ivory, Director of the Innovative Management Practice Research Centre, Anglia Ruskin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1705702021-11-10T16:23:40Z2021-11-10T16:23:40ZWe can’t afford to just build greener. We must build less<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430457/original/file-20211105-15-ykn0e0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The greenest buildings are those that exist already</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/8Gg2Ne_uTcM">Danist Soh on Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the built environment <a href="https://ukcop26.org/the-conference/presidency-programme/">takes centre stage</a> at COP26, the scale and urgency of the climate crisis and of the industry’s responsibility to address it comes into focus. A <a href="https://globalabc.org/sites/default/files/2021-10/2021%20Buildings-GSR%20-%20Executive%20Summary%20ENG.pdf">recent report</a> from the UN’s Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction shows that the buildings and construction sector is responsible for 38% of global CO2 emissions. </p>
<p>Increasing attention has been paid, in recent years, to emissions resulting from how our buildings are operated: how they are heated, cooled and lit. Those due to the production and supply of building materials and the construction itself have received less attention. And yet, they alone account for 10% of global emmissions.</p>
<p>Much of the sector thrives on a wasteful cycle of demolition and new builds. In the UK alone, an estimated <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/demolishing-50-000-buildings-a-year-is-a-national-disgrace-wbrf09952">50,000 buildings</a> are torn down each year. Which begs the question: is building greener really the solution? </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An overhead view of a red-rood building partially demolished" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430463/original/file-20211105-17-bekcn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430463/original/file-20211105-17-bekcn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430463/original/file-20211105-17-bekcn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430463/original/file-20211105-17-bekcn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430463/original/file-20211105-17-bekcn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430463/original/file-20211105-17-bekcn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430463/original/file-20211105-17-bekcn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The demolition and new-build construction cycle is a major source of waste.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/vOYW7USj1Cc">Jarrett Mills | unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Whole-life carbon approach</h2>
<p>Despite efforts by the likes of sustainable architecture pioneer <a href="https://mcdonough.com/#about">William McDonough</a> and organisations including <a href="https://www.worldgbc.org">World Green Building Council</a>, breaking this demolition and new-build cycle has proven difficult.</p>
<p>Reusing existing building stock is a complex issue. If not done sustainably, it can also cause a hike in emissions. But there are several other reasons why reuse has not become more of a default option. </p>
<p>Many architects have found that it was easier to make a name for themselves with glitzy new buildings than with sustainable design methods and retrofits, and, frequently, more - and quicker – money could be made by tearing down existing buildings and replacing them. Perverse financial incentives play a role alongside other factors: in the UK, for example, <a href="https://theconversation.com/refurbishing-old-buildings-reduces-emissions-but-outdated-tax-rates-make-it-expensive-125892">VAT rates</a> still encourage new builds and penalise renovations. </p>
<p>Further there are economic incentives for those who profit from the current system – who sell construction materials, carry out demolitions or whose business model exclusively focuses on new builds, instead of reckoning with existing buildings, refurbishing them and integrating them into new schemes – to not do things differently. </p>
<p>Lastly, in architecture education and professional accreditation, as elsewhere, there has been a lack of <a href="https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/architecture/news/interview-professor-fionn-stevenson">climate literacy</a>. This has left architects <a href="https://www.buildingsandcities.org/insights/commentaries/climate-architecture-education.html">ill-prepared</a> to effectively tackle the climate crisis. </p>
<p>Recent initiatives show that things are changing. <a href="https://www.architectscan.org/">Architects Climate Action Network</a> and <a href="https://www.architectsdeclare.com">Architects Declare</a> launched in 2019, are just two of several alliances that aim to raise awareness within the construction industry of the climate crisis, <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk-plans-to-slash-carbon-emissions-68-by-2030-how-banking-building-and-borrowing-can-help-151043">decarbonise the sector</a> and drive the shift towards renewable and green building. In addition, Architects’ Journal started the <a href="https://www.architectsjournal.co.uk/news/retrofirst">RetroFirst</a> campaign in 2019, which advocates for prioritising retrofitting over demolition and new construction. As the latter campaign puts it, the greenest buildings are those that already exist. </p>
<p>In September, a <a href="https://www.raeng.org.uk/RAE/media/General/Policy/Net%20Zero/NEPC-Policy-Report_Decarbonising-Construction_building-a-new-net-zero-industry_20210923.pdf">report</a> published by the Royal Academy of Engineering drew further attention to the environmental costs that the industry incurs and possible ways to address them. Central to this new way of thinking about construction is what architects and developers call a <a href="https://theconversation.com/cities-and-climate-change-why-low-rise-buildings-are-the-future-not-skyscrapers-170673">whole-life carbon approach</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Snow falls on a city neighbourhood" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430462/original/file-20211105-21-y55d6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430462/original/file-20211105-21-y55d6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430462/original/file-20211105-21-y55d6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430462/original/file-20211105-21-y55d6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430462/original/file-20211105-21-y55d6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430462/original/file-20211105-21-y55d6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430462/original/file-20211105-21-y55d6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Making heating and lighting energy efficient has long been a priority.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/Z375qSR3VLI">Johny Goerend on Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Building greener</h2>
<p>The whole-life approach considers a building’s <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/279711810_Life-cycle_analysis_of_the_built_environment">entire life cycle</a>, from construction, occupation and renovation to repair, demolition and disposal. In a typical UK housing block, emissions attributable to construction and maintenance account for <a href="https://www.ukgbc.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Net-Zero-Carbon-Buildings-A-framework-definition.pdf">51%</a> of the building’s total carbon emissions.</p>
<p>Making buildings energy efficient to operate has long been a priority. But in most places, government policies for low or zero-carbon buildings still do not fully – if at all – consider the so-called <a href="https://www.reutersevents.com/sustainability/building-sector-takes-concrete-steps-address-hidden-emissions">hidden</a> or <a href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk/engineering-exchange/sites/engineering-exchange/files/fact-sheet-embodied-carbon-social-housing.pdf">embodied</a> emissions. These result from the extraction and production of building materials, such as cement, and the construction process itself. Green-building certification schemes too have long overlooked them. </p>
<p>Buildings today are usually built to last notably shorter periods of time than they used to be. If the <a href="https://www.architectmagazine.com/technology/inside-the-gettys-initiative-to-save-modern-architecture_o">typical lifespan</a> of a traditional building of stone, brick and timber saw first repairs needed after 60 years, modern buildings have deteriorated twice as fast. Significant carbon savings could be achieved by returning to more robust and adaptable construction. </p>
<p>When the <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/mono/10.4324/9780429346712-4/built-last-david-cheshire?context=ubx&refId=d10efbfb-c188-46cd-a187-f827f8fc32bb">built-to-last principle</a> proves impractical, however, buildings designed for a shorter lifespan can still be made more sustainable, provided a whole-life carbon approach is adopted and the components and materials used are easy to dismantle and reuse.</p>
<p>A surge in <a href="https://theconversation.com/bendable-concrete-and-other-co2-infused-cement-mixes-could-dramatically-cut-global-emissions-152544">innovation</a> in recent years has seen a rise in <a href="https://www.archdaily.com/893552/8-biodegradable-materials-the-construction-industry-needs-to-know-about">the use of wood and other bio-based materials</a> and sustainable design principles, from the <a href="https://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/wiki/Circular_economy">circular economy</a> to the idea of “<a href="https://www.c2ccertified.org/get-certified/product-certification">cradle-to-cradle</a>” production and manufacturing, which <a href="https://sustainabilityguide.eu/methods/cradle-to-cradle/#:%7E:text=Cradle%20to%20Cradle%20(C2C)%20is,right%20thing%20from%20the%20beginning.&text=C2C%20methodology%20builds%20on%20the,in%20a%20new%20product%20cycle.">defines waste as a resource</a> and aims to perpetuate recycling. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A timber-frame building under construction, seen from above" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430459/original/file-20211105-15-1d1giyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430459/original/file-20211105-15-1d1giyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430459/original/file-20211105-15-1d1giyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430459/original/file-20211105-15-1d1giyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430459/original/file-20211105-15-1d1giyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430459/original/file-20211105-15-1d1giyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430459/original/file-20211105-15-1d1giyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sustainable building materials can only go so far in reducing the sector’s emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/IB0VA6VdqBw">Avel Chuklanov on Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.c40reinventingcities.org/en/professionals/winning-projects/scalo-greco-breda-1276.html">L'Innesto</a> in Milan, for example, has been promoted as a showcase for the city’s sustainability strategies, and is set to be Italy’s first zero-emissions social housing. This project ticks all kinds of boxes: construction will involve minimal soil excavation and bio-sourced building materials with lots of greenery and very little space for cars. Internal heating systems will be powered by renewable energy sources – and more.</p>
<p>The problem, though, is that even L'Innesto will only be fully carbon-neutral 30 years after its construction. The project, like many others, relies on <a href="https://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/wiki/Carbon_offsetting">carbon offsetting</a> to achieve its zero-carbon credentials.</p>
<p>When the French architects Anne Lacaton and Jean-Philippe Vassal won the Pritzker Prize this year, their victory was hailed as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2021/mar/16/lacaton-vassal-unflashy-french-architectures-pritzker-prize">a turning point</a>. They have earned a reputation for <a href="https://www.lacatonvassal.com/index.php?idp=37#">turning down commissions</a> or proving to city councils why <a href="https://theconversation.com/lacaton-and-vassal-how-this-years-pritzker-prize-could-spark-an-architectural-revolution-157636">refurbishment</a> would be better – and cheaper – than building something new.</p>
<p>They remain outliers though. For the most part, building greener still involves actual construction. </p>
<p>Make no mistake. Green projects such as L'Innesto becoming the norm would be a big step forward. But there is no getting around the fact that three decades to carbon neutrality is a long time in the fight against climate change. </p>
<p>This is the industry’s inconvenient truth. The climate crisis is, in no small part, a product of our voracious appetite to build. It is not something, as climate activist Greta Thunberg <a href="https://awpc.cattcenter.iastate.edu/2019/12/02/acceptance-speech-at-the-2019-goldene-kamera-awards-march-30-2019/">has pointed out</a>, that we can simply build our way out of. We cannot afford to only build greener. We need to build less.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="COP26: the world's biggest climate talks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong>This story is part of The Conversation’s coverage on COP26, the Glasgow climate conference, by experts from around the world.</strong>
<br><em>Amid a rising tide of climate news and stories, The Conversation is here to clear the air and make sure you get information you can trust. <a href="https://page.theconversation.com/cop26-glasgow-2021-climate-change-summit/"><strong>More.</strong></a></em> </p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170570/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Johannes Novy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One-tenth of global emissions result from the production and supply of building materials – and the construction process itself.Johannes Novy, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, School of Architecture and Cities, University of WestminsterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1309242020-02-20T20:56:54Z2020-02-20T20:56:54ZCarbon pricing may be overrated, if history is any indication<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316497/original/file-20200220-92493-1p05ejx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=406%2C133%2C4523%2C3067&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Groningen gas field in the Netherlands was discovered in 1959, and is the largest natural gas field in Europe.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Wildervank_natural_gas_field.jpg">(Skitterphoto/Wikimedia)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A common demand in discussions about climate change is to respect the science. This is appropriate. We should all be paying close attention to the <a href="http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cabot/events/2012/194.html">urgent and terrifying conclusions</a> being published by climate scientists. </p>
<p>But scientists are not the only experts demanding that we listen to them on this issue. Many economists claim scientific authority for their insistence that carbon pricing, whether delivered through carbon taxes or cap-and-trade systems, is the best way to reduce carbon emissions. </p>
<p>If you price carbon appropriately, they say, it will create market incentives which will bring about radical carbon emissions reductions in the <a href="http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/PB_case-carbon-pricing_Bowen.pdf">cheapest possible way</a>. Many policymakers have already listened to this advice. Carbon-pricing systems exist in Canada, the European Union, Norway, New Zealand and Japan. </p>
<p>The case for carbon pricing, however, is not as ironclad as the case for climate action. The economic theory that underlies carbon pricing schemes is based on <a href="https://theconversation.com/danger-strikes-when-foolish-humans-are-left-in-charge-of-their-financial-futures-45262">questionable theoretical assumptions</a>. It assumes, for example, that people can be modelled as both rational and self-interested, which might be a big oversimplification. </p>
<p>Carbon pricing proponents often ignore that <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/experts/david-b-goldstein/carbon-fees-are-not-best-solution-climate-pollution">many people can’t</a> reduce their carbon emissions, even if they receive financial incentives. Economists who favour carbon pricing also have yet to come up with an answer to the <a href="https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2018/11/french-protests-gilets-jaunes-emmanuel-macron-gas-diesel-tax/576196/">major political backlashes</a> that have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jul/17/australia-kills-off-carbon-tax">accompanied the imposition of carbon taxes</a> in many of the jurisdictions <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/a-carbon-tax-just-try-them/">where they have been introduced</a>, including France, Australia and Canada.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ecuadors-fuel-protests-show-the-risks-of-removing-fossil-fuel-subsidies-too-fast-125690">Ecuador's fuel protests show the risks of removing fossil fuel subsidies too fast</a>
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<p>A less frequently discussed reason to question the insistence on carbon pricing as a central climate policy comes from history. Throughout the 20th century, many governments successfully enacted <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2015.12.020">radical technological transitions</a>. Today, faced with an urgent need to change our energy system, it would be wise to look at how they accomplished this. My research on how governments in the past have deliberately accelerated large-scale technological change does just that.</p>
<h2>Modernizing under siege</h2>
<p>In 1937, British policymakers looked on nervously while the Wehrmacht marched into Austria. War with Germany posed a serious food supply problem for Britain. British agriculture had been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198208716.001.0001">collapsing for decades</a> under competition from cheap foreign foods, and Germany was known to use submarines to disrupt enemy shipping. Policymakers began preparing for a siege economy. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316501/original/file-20200220-92518-307u89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316501/original/file-20200220-92518-307u89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316501/original/file-20200220-92518-307u89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316501/original/file-20200220-92518-307u89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316501/original/file-20200220-92518-307u89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316501/original/file-20200220-92518-307u89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316501/original/file-20200220-92518-307u89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The Women’s Land Army ploughed fields in Britain on tractors during the Second World War.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_Women%27s_Land_Army_in_Britain_during_the_Second_World_War_HU36275.jpg">Imperial War Museum</a></span>
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<p>To do this, the British government <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/3714461-english-agriculture">intervened directly in the agricultural system</a>. It purchased thousands of tractors, established a subsidized fixed price for grain to stabilize markets, created local War Agricultural Executive Committees to maximize food production and, in many cases, had police force farmers to plough new land. </p>
<p>These policies not only allowed Britain to avoid famine during the Second World War, they also jump-started a massive structural transformation that persisted into the 1950s and 1960s as British farmers <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/40275421">embraced tractors, fertilizers, pesticides and monocultures</a>.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315772/original/file-20200217-11017-1hu0nw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315772/original/file-20200217-11017-1hu0nw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315772/original/file-20200217-11017-1hu0nw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315772/original/file-20200217-11017-1hu0nw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315772/original/file-20200217-11017-1hu0nw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315772/original/file-20200217-11017-1hu0nw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315772/original/file-20200217-11017-1hu0nw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Changes to British grain yields, 1900-70.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://books.google.ca/books/about/British_Historical_Statistics.html?id=Oyg9AAAAIAAJ&redir_esc=y">(Data from 'British Historical Statistics')</a></span>
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<h2>Making the most of a bonanza</h2>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315776/original/file-20200217-10976-kkyn0h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315776/original/file-20200217-10976-kkyn0h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315776/original/file-20200217-10976-kkyn0h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315776/original/file-20200217-10976-kkyn0h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315776/original/file-20200217-10976-kkyn0h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315776/original/file-20200217-10976-kkyn0h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315776/original/file-20200217-10976-kkyn0h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315776/original/file-20200217-10976-kkyn0h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Heat consumption in The Netherlands, 1945-98.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://opendata.cbs.nl/statline/#/CBS/en/dataset/83140eng/table?ts=1582135182081">(Data from Statistics Netherlands)</a></span>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315777/original/file-20200217-11005-12945uy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315777/original/file-20200217-11005-12945uy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315777/original/file-20200217-11005-12945uy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315777/original/file-20200217-11005-12945uy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315777/original/file-20200217-11005-12945uy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315777/original/file-20200217-11005-12945uy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315777/original/file-20200217-11005-12945uy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315777/original/file-20200217-11005-12945uy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Energy production in The Netherlands, 1945-73.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://opendata.cbs.nl/statline/#/CBS/en/dataset/83140eng/table?ts=1582135182081">(Data from Statistics Netherlands)</a></span>
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<p>In 1959, the Dutch oil industry discovered the Slochteren natural gas field near Groningen, in the Netherlands. At the time, its size was estimated at 60 billion cubic metres of gas: the largest gas field found on Earth up to that point. It proved to be much larger: <a href="https://www.nam.nl/english-information.html">2,800 billion cubic metres</a>.</p>
<p>It was not entirely clear what the Netherlands, a predominantly coal-powered country, would do with so much gas. Deliberations between the fossil fuel industry and the government eventually arrived at a radical answer: the Netherlands <a href="https://doi.org/10.4337/9781845423421.00017">would transform its entire economy to run on natural gas</a>. </p>
<p>Once the details of this plan were agreed upon, progress proceeded with astonishing speed. The Dutch government built a nationwide network of gas pipelines in just five years, offered consumer rebates to convert appliances to gas power, ran an advertising campaign promoting natural gas as a clean and modern fuel and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2019.1584286">retrained out-of-work coal miners to work in the gas industry</a>. By the 1970s, natural gas was the dominant force in the Dutch heat supply.</p>
<h2>Lessons from an energy crunch</h2>
<p>In 1973, Denmark had no domestic oil industry and little diplomatic heft. This meant that the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/mar/03/1970s-oil-price-shock">1973 oil crisis</a> hit Denmark hard. Reduced oil supply created an economic depression and forced policymakers to implement <a href="https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315739533-3">extreme energy conservation measures</a>, such as turning out streetlights and banning Sunday driving.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315778/original/file-20200217-10985-7zygmq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315778/original/file-20200217-10985-7zygmq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315778/original/file-20200217-10985-7zygmq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315778/original/file-20200217-10985-7zygmq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315778/original/file-20200217-10985-7zygmq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315778/original/file-20200217-10985-7zygmq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=744&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315778/original/file-20200217-10985-7zygmq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=744&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315778/original/file-20200217-10985-7zygmq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=744&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Danish heat supply, 1968-90.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://statbank.dk/statbank5a/default.asp?w=1368">(Data from Statbank Denmark)</a></span>
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<p>For a longer-term solution, Danish policymakers looked to become less dependent on imported energy. To reduce the country’s reliance on heating oil, they prioritized district heating: An extremely efficient form of space heating which uses insulated pipes full of hot water to heat several buildings, or even an entire neighbourhood, at once, rather than having each building rely on an individual furnace.</p>
<p>As with the previous two examples, this change was done through <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2019.1584286">deliberate intervention</a>, which was handled mainly by municipalities. In some places, municipalities banned the installation private furnaces. In others, they offered interest-free loans to energy cooperatives. This coordinated national strategy led to a rapid increase in the share of district heating in the Danish heating system.</p>
<h2>Lessons for today</h2>
<p>These case studies have important differences, both with each other and with the challenge of climate action in the present day. In each one, however, radical technological change was achieved not by relying on price signals to coordinate change, but by the state intervening and coordinating it directly. </p>
<p>This is strong historical evidence against some economists’ insistence on carbon pricing as the primary way to promote low-carbon technologies and practices. As they chart a way to mitigate climate change most effectively, policymakers should supplement economic theory with empirical lessons from history.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130924/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cameron Roberts receives funding from the Transition Accelerator, and is a member of Courage Coalition. </span></em></p>The case for carbon pricing is not as ironclad as the case for climate action.Cameron Roberts, Researcher in Sustainable Transportation, Carleton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1316582020-02-12T03:34:35Z2020-02-12T03:34:35ZChief Scientist: we need to transform our world into a sustainable ‘electric planet’<p>I want you to imagine a highway exclusively devoted to delivering the world’s energy.</p>
<p>Each lane is restricted to trucks that carry one of the world’s seven large-scale sources of primary energy: coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, hydro, solar and wind.</p>
<p>Our current energy security comes at a price, the carbon dioxide emissions from the trucks in the three busiest lanes: the ones for coal, oil and natural gas.</p>
<p>We can’t just put up roadblocks overnight to stop these trucks; they are carrying the overwhelming majority of the world’s energy supply.</p>
<p>But what if we expand clean electricity production carried by the trucks in the solar and wind lanes — three or four times over — into an economically efficient clean energy future?</p>
<p>Think electric cars instead of petrol cars. Think electric factories instead of oil-burning factories. Cleaner and cheaper to run. A technology-driven orderly transition. Problems wrought by technology, solved by technology.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-transition-from-coal-4-lessons-for-australia-from-around-the-world-115558">How to transition from coal: 4 lessons for Australia from around the world</a>
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<p>Make no mistake, this will be the biggest engineering challenge ever undertaken. The energy system is huge, and even with an internationally committed and focused effort the transition will take many decades.</p>
<p>It will also require respectful planning and retraining to ensure affected individuals and communities, who have fuelled our energy progress for generations, are supported throughout the transition.</p>
<p>As Tony, a worker from a Gippsland coal-fired power station, noted from the audience on <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/qanda/2020-10-02/11933296">this week’s Q+A program</a>: </p>
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<p>The workforce is highly innovative, we are up for the challenge, we will adapt to whatever is put in front of us and we have proven that in the past.</p>
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<p>This is a reminder that if governments, industry, communities and individuals share a vision, a positive transition can be achieved.</p>
<p>The stunning technology advances I have witnessed in the past ten years make me optimistic.</p>
<p>Renewable energy is booming worldwide, and is now being delivered at a markedly lower cost than ever before.</p>
<p>In Australia, the cost of producing electricity from wind and solar is now around <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/Planning_and_Forecasting/Inputs-Assumptions-Methodologies/2019/CSIRO-GenCost2019-20_DraftforReview.pdf">A$50 per megawatt-hour</a>.</p>
<p>Even when the variability is firmed with storage, the <a href="http://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/publications/assets/100renewables.pdf">price of solar and wind electricity</a> is lower than existing gas-fired electricity generation and similar to new-build coal-fired electricity generation.</p>
<p>This has resulted in substantial solar and wind electricity uptake in Australia and, most importantly, projections of a <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/4aa038fc-b9ee-4694-99d0-c5346afb5bfb/files/australias-emissions-projections-2019-report.pdf">33% cut in emissions in the electricity sector by 2030</a>, when compared to 2005 levels.</p>
<p>And this pricing trend will only continue, with a recent United Nations report noting that, in the last decade alone, the cost of solar electricity <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/press-release/decade-renewable-energy-investment-%20led-solar-tops-usd-25-trillion">fell by 80%</a>, and is set to drop even further.</p>
<p>So we’re on our way. We can do this. Time and again we have demonstrated that no challenge to humanity is beyond humanity.</p>
<p>Ultimately, we will need to complement solar and wind with a range of technologies such as high levels of storage, long-distance transmission, and much better efficiency in the way we use energy.</p>
<p>But while these technologies are being scaled up, we need an energy companion today that can react rapidly to changes in solar and wind output. An energy companion that is itself relatively low in emissions, and that only operates when needed.</p>
<p>In the short term, as Prime Minister Scott Morrison and energy minister Angus Taylor have <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-31/nsw-strikes-landmark-energy-deal-with-federal-government/11916314">previously stated</a>, natural gas will play that critical role.</p>
<p>In fact, natural gas is already making it possible for nations to transition to a reliable, and relatively low-emissions, electricity supply.</p>
<p>Look at Britain, where coal-fired electricity generation has <a href="https://www.nationalgrid.com/britain-hits-historic-clean-energy-milestone-zero-carbon-electricity-outstrips-fossil-fuels-2019">plummeted</a> from 75% in 1990 to just 2% in 2019.</p>
<p>Driving this has been an increase in solar, wind, and hydro electricity, up from 2% to 27%. At the same time, and this is key to the delivery of a reliable electricity supply, electricity from natural gas increased from virtually zero in 1990 to more than 38% in 2019.</p>
<p>I am aware that building new natural gas generators may be <a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrisons-gas-transition-plan-is-a-dangerous-road-to-nowhere-130951">seen as problematic</a>, but for now let’s assume that with solar, wind and natural gas, we will achieve a reliable, low-emissions electricity supply.</p>
<p>Is this enough? Not really.</p>
<p>We still need a high-density source of transportable fuel for long-distance, heavy-duty trucks.</p>
<p>We still need an alternative chemical feedstock to make the ammonia used to produce fertilisers.</p>
<p>We still need a means to carry clean energy from one continent to another.</p>
<p>Enter the hero: hydrogen.</p>
<p>Hydrogen is abundant. In fact, it’s the most abundant element in the Universe. The only problem is that there is nowhere on Earth that you can drill a well and find hydrogen gas.</p>
<p>Don’t panic. Fortunately, hydrogen is bound up in other substances. One we all know: water, the H in H₂O.</p>
<p>We have two viable ways to extract hydrogen, with near-zero emissions.</p>
<p>First, we can split water in a process called electrolysis, using renewable electricity.</p>
<p>Second, we can use coal and natural gas to split the water, and capture and permanently bury the carbon dioxide emitted along the way.</p>
<p>I know some may be sceptical, because carbon capture and permanent storage has not been commercially viable in the electricity generation industry.</p>
<p>But the process for hydrogen production is significantly more cost-effective, for two crucial reasons.</p>
<p>First, since carbon dioxide is left behind as a residual part of the hydrogen production process, there is no additional step, and little added cost, for its extraction.</p>
<p>And second, because the process operates at much higher pressure, the extraction of the carbon dioxide is more energy-efficient and it is easier to store.</p>
<p>Returning to the electrolysis production route, we must also recognise that if hydrogen is produced exclusively from solar and wind electricity, we will exacerbate the load on the renewable lanes of our energy highway.</p>
<p>Think for a moment of the vast amounts of steel, aluminium and concrete needed to support, build and service solar and wind structures. And the copper and rare earth metals needed for the wires and motors. And the lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and other battery materials needed to stabilise the system.</p>
<p>It would be prudent, therefore, to safeguard against any potential resource limitations with another energy source.</p>
<p>Well, by producing hydrogen from natural gas or coal, using carbon capture and permanent storage, we can add back two more lanes to our energy highway, ensuring we have four primary energy sources to meet the needs of the future: solar, wind, hydrogen from natural gas, and hydrogen from coal.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/145-years-after-jules-verne-dreamed-up-a-hydrogen-future-it-has-arrived-127701">145 years after Jules Verne dreamed up a hydrogen future, it has arrived</a>
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<p>Furthermore, once extracted, hydrogen provides unique solutions to the remaining challenges we face in our future electric planet.</p>
<p>First, in the transport sector, Australia’s largest end-user of energy.</p>
<p>Because <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/australias-national-hydrogen-strategy">hydrogen fuel</a> carries much more energy than the equivalent weight of batteries, it provides a viable, longer-range alternative for powering long-haul buses, B-double trucks, trains that travel from mines in central Australia to coastal ports, and ships that carry passengers and goods around the world.</p>
<p>Second, in industry, where hydrogen can help solve some of the largest emissions challenges. </p>
<p>Take steel manufacturing. In today’s world, the use of coal in steel manufacturing is responsible for a staggering <a href="https://www.worldsteel.org/publications/position-papers/steel-s-contribution-to-a-low-carbon-%20future.html">7% of carbon dioxide emissions</a>.</p>
<p>Persisting with this form of steel production will result in this percentage growing frustratingly higher as we make progress decarbonising other sectors of the economy.</p>
<p>Fortunately, clean hydrogen can not only provide the energy that is needed to heat the blast furnaces, it can also replace the carbon in coal used to reduce iron oxide to the pure iron from which steel is made. And with hydrogen as the reducing agent the only byproduct is water vapour.</p>
<p>This would have a revolutionary impact on cutting global emissions.</p>
<p>Third, hydrogen can store energy, not only for a rainy day, but also to ship sunshine from our shores, where it is abundant, to countries where it is needed.</p>
<p>Let me illustrate this point. In December last year, I was privileged to witness the launch of the world’s first liquefied hydrogen carrier ship in Japan.</p>
<p>As the vessel slipped into the water I saw it not only as the launch of the first ship of its type to ever be built, but as the launch of a new era in which clean energy will be routinely transported between the continents. Shipping sunshine.</p>
<p>And, finally, because hydrogen operates in a similar way to natural gas, our natural gas generators can be reconfigured in the future to run on hydrogen — neatly turning a potential legacy into an added bonus.</p>
<h2>Hydrogen-powered economy</h2>
<p>We truly are at the dawn of a new, thriving industry.</p>
<p>There’s a nearly <a href="https://hydrogencouncil.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Hydrogen-scaling-up-Hydrogen-Council.pdf">A$2 trillion global market</a> for hydrogen come 2050, assuming that we can drive the price of producing hydrogen to substantially lower than A$2 per kilogram.</p>
<p>In Australia, we’ve got the available land, the natural resources, the technology smarts, the global networks, and the industry expertise.</p>
<p>And we now have the commitment, with the <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/australias-national-hydrogen-strategy">National Hydrogen Strategy</a> unanimously adopted at a meeting by the Commonwealth, state and territory governments late last year.</p>
<p>Indeed, as I reflect upon my term as Chief Scientist, in this my last year, chairing the development of this strategy has been one of my proudest achievements.</p>
<p>The full results will not be seen overnight, but it has sown the seeds, and if we continue to tend to them, they will grow into a whole new realm of practical applications and unimagined possibilities.</p>
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<p><em>This is an edited extract of a <a href="https://www.npc.org.au/speaker/2020/597-dr-alan-finkel">speech</a> to the National Press Club of Australia on February 12, 2020. The full speech is available <a href="https://www.chiefscientist.gov.au/news-and-media/national-press-club-address-orderly-transition-electric-planet">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131658/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Finkel is the Chair of the COAG Hydrogen Strategy Working Group that developed the national hydrogen strategy.</span></em></p>The world runs on energy, so finding low-emission alternatives to fossil fuels is crucial. Wind and solar are cheap and abundant but can’t do everything. But hydrogen fuel could complete the picture.Alan Finkel, Australia’s Chief Scientist, Office of the Chief ScientistLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1270492019-11-14T18:52:54Z2019-11-14T18:52:54ZGrattan on Friday: When the firies call him out on climate change, Scott Morrison should listen<p>When five former fire chiefs held a news conference on Thursday to urge the federal government to take more action on climate change, it was a challenging moment for Scott Morrison.</p>
<p>Those who fronted the cameras represented a group of 21 men and two women, who make up the Emergency Leaders for Climate Action. These people have led fire and emergency services all around the nation.</p>
<p>They’re powerful voices, because they are advocates with compelling experience and expertise. The group’s messages are that we’re in “a new age of unprecedented bushfire danger”, climate change is the key reason why things are getting worse, and the government needs to respond with more resources and a better policy to reduce emissions and move to clean energy.</p>
<p>The problem is, as group founder Greg Mullins, former Fire and Rescue NSW commissioner, put it succinctly, “this government fundamentally doesn’t like talking about climate change”.</p>
<p>The devastating fires are a dramatic additional element intensifying the pressure on a government already increasingly on the back foot over climate change, as it responds poorly to a complex set of policy problems.</p>
<p>It’s not that Morrison denies climate change. It’s that he refuses to acknowledge it as a central issue, either because he doesn’t see it as such or because he fears provoking his right wingers.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-minister-david-littleproud-on-bushfires-drought-and-the-nationals-127016">Politics with Michelle Grattan: Minister David Littleproud on bushfires, drought, and the Nationals</a>
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<p>Consider three factors now weighing on Morrison.</p>
<p>First, in Australia (as internationally) activism is rising. This should be broadly defined. Put aside the Extinction Rebellion, which may alienate more people than it persuades. Rather, include in the definition the many companies now factoring climate change into their planning, investment, and public statements. </p>
<p>Morrison might rail against activists hitting resource companies via secondary boycotts, and commentators might denounce so-called “woke” behaviour by business. But the long view indicates a tide is running here and its direction is clear.</p>
<p>Second, there is a general recognition the government’s climate policy is badly wanting. Emissions are rising. Its modest centrepiece - a fund paying for projects to reduce or capture emissions – isn’t doing the job. The fund’s limitations were tacitly acknowledged when recently the government set up a panel which sought submissions on how it could be enhanced.</p>
<p>More broadly, the government’s lack of a coherent energy policy means continued uncertainty for investors.</p>
<p>Third, Angus Taylor, minister for energy and emissions reduction, has frustrated those in the energy sector and the states. He’s too confrontational and short on people skills (in contrast to his predecessor Josh Frydenberg). His cheap shot accusing the Sydney City Council of ludicrous travel costs blew into a major embarrassment.</p>
<p>Next Friday Taylor will again be under scrutiny when he meets the states at the COAG energy council. The last meeting, nearly a year ago, turned into a nasty stoush between Taylor and the NSW minister.</p>
<p>If Taylor’s performance doesn’t improve in the next few months Morrison – who will be the one eventually carrying the can for policy failure – surely should move him. It would be interesting to see how (say) a Simon Birmingham or a Mathias Cormann would go in the portfolio. Better, you’d think.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/like-volcanoes-on-the-ranges-how-australian-bushfire-writing-has-changed-with-the-climate-126831">'Like volcanoes on the ranges': how Australian bushfire writing has changed with the climate</a>
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<p>It was no wonder Morrison wanted to contain partisan argument while the fires rage. It’s a reasonable view for a prime minister to take, with a basis in past practice, but was also politically driven.</p>
<p>Morrison has been assisted in this by Labor, despite the ALP recently voting in parliament (without success) for a “climate emergency” to be declared. Anthony Albanese believed there was no gain in seeking to score points during a disaster, and danger in doing so.</p>
<p>But a moratorium, although mostly adhered to by Liberal and ALP federal politicians, was never going to happen more generally. Indeed some people, like the retired fire chiefs, judged this was precisely the moment to press their point.</p>
<p>It was predictable the Greens would strike hard; climate is core ground for them. But that Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack would take the bait, leaping in to condemn “the ravings of some pure enlightened and woke capital city greenies”, showed a lack of discipline, probably in part a reflection of the strain the Nationals leader is under as he tries to manage a difficult party room.</p>
<p>Some believed McCormack was playing to his base. If so, he’d only be talking to part of it, most notably those with an eye to the coal industry. Many farmers are very aware, first hand, of the impact of the changing climate.</p>
<p>After its election loss, there’s been much talk about how Labor is caught between its dual constituencies on climate – inner city progressives versus traditional suburban workers.</p>
<p>But the Liberals face their own dilemma, which could deepen as the issue amps up in the electorate. We have seen over many years the split within the Liberal party, and the very high costs it has extracted. As Morrison assesses how to pitch to voters in the future, he might have to be careful of straining internal unity.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/firestorms-and-flaming-tornadoes-how-bushfires-create-their-own-ferocious-weather-systems-126832">Firestorms and flaming tornadoes: how bushfires create their own ferocious weather systems</a>
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<p>Over coming months, the fires’ impact on public opinion will presumably be measured in the focus groups through which the government hears its “quiet Australians”.</p>
<p>More immediately, Morrison won’t be able to escape a response when this crisis passes. His moratorium will make expectations greater.</p>
<p>John Connor was formerly CEO of the now defunct Climate Institute, which commissioned from the CSIRO <a href="http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/verve/_resources/fullreportbushfire.pdf">a 2007 research paper</a> – that turned out to be prescient - on the link between climate and bushfires, titled Bushfire Weather in Southeast Australia: Recent Trends and Projected Climate Change Impacts.</p>
<p>Connor, who now heads the Carbon Market Institute (which describes itself as a peak industry body for climate action and business) suggests the current situation provides the opportunity for an “armistice” - a chance to build a platform on the middle ground for the climate debate.</p>
<p>One step, Connor says, would be for the government to establish a parliamentary inquiry to examine the growing risk climate change presents for the fire scene and the resources required for the future.</p>
<p>“It could be a stepping stone to a more mature debate about carbon policy for the broader economy,” Connor says, although he admits “I’m a professional optimist”.</p>
<p>The government’s former drought co-ordinator, Stephen Day, wrote in his report, finally released last week: “As a consequence of climate change drought is likely to be more regular, longer in duration, and broader in area”.</p>
<p>What’s striking about Day’s observation is how matter-of-fact it is. Climate change is stated as a reality from which other considerations flow. The same reality applies to bushfires. It also applies to the need to move the economy to a new energy mix and net zero emissions by 2050.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127049/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Emergency Leaders for Climate Action have a simple message: we’re in “a new age of unprecedented bushfire danger” due to climate change. But Morrison refuses to acknowledge it as a central issue.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1239172019-11-07T19:02:36Z2019-11-07T19:02:36ZRemote Indigenous Australia’s ecological economies give us something to build on<p>Land titling in Australia has undergone a revolutionary shift over the past four decades. The return of diverse forms of title to Indigenous Australians has produced some semblance of land justice. About <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/DocumentStore.ashx?id=45675035-0fd3-4698-b1a6-0e3883f82369&subId=669953">half the continent</a> is now held under some form of Indigenous title. </p>
<p>Forms of title range from inalienable freehold title to non-exclusive (or shared) native title. Much of this estate is in northern Australia, as this recent map shows. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299083/original/file-20191029-183132-1uvwvw6.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299083/original/file-20191029-183132-1uvwvw6.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299083/original/file-20191029-183132-1uvwvw6.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299083/original/file-20191029-183132-1uvwvw6.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299083/original/file-20191029-183132-1uvwvw6.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299083/original/file-20191029-183132-1uvwvw6.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299083/original/file-20191029-183132-1uvwvw6.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299083/original/file-20191029-183132-1uvwvw6.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Status of Indigenous title across Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">K. Jordon, F. Markham and J. Altman, Linking Indigenous communities with regional development: Australia Overview, report to OECD (2019)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>Another <a href="https://theconversation.com/remote-indigenous-communities-are-vital-for-our-fragile-ecosystems-38700">map</a> from 2014 shows over 1,000 discrete Indigenous communities and the division between north and south.</p>
<h2>What’s different about these lands?</h2>
<p>These lands and their populations have some unusual features.</p>
<p>First, the lands are extremely remote and relatively undeveloped in a capitalist “extractive” sense. These are <a href="https://press-files.anu.edu.au/downloads/press/p34501/pdf/book.pdf">the largest relatively intact savannah landscapes</a> in Australia — and possibly the world. </p>
<p>Much of this estate is included in the <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/land/nrs">National Reserve System</a> as <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/land/indigenous-protected-areas">Indigenous Protected Areas</a> because of its high environmental and cultural values, according to International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) <a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/resources/categories-and-criteria">criteria</a>.</p>
<p>These areas still face threats from <a href="https://theconversation.com/invasive-species-are-australias-number-one-extinction-threat-116809">invasive animal and plant species</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-bringing-a-new-world-of-bushfires-123261">bushfires</a> and <a href="https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/climate-projections/future-climate/regional-climate-change-explorer/super-clusters/">increasingly extreme heat</a>. These threats will lead to further species extinctions. </p>
<p>Indigenous Protected Area management plans address these threats to ensure biodiversity and cultural values are at best restored or maintained, at worst not eroded.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/churches-have-legal-rights-in-australia-why-not-sacred-trees-123919">Churches have legal rights in Australia. Why not sacred trees?</a>
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<p>Second, parts of these lands in the <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/science/supervising-scientist/publications/eriss-notes/wetlands-australias-wet-dry-tropics">wet-dry tropics</a> are valuable as sources of emissions avoidance and carbon storage.</p>
<p>Many groups are paid through offset markets and voluntary agreements to reduce overall emissions. There are <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/Choosing-a-project-type/Opportunities-for-the-land-sector/Permanence-obligations">emerging options</a> for payment for long-term carbon storage – between 25 and 100 years.</p>
<p>These lands have <a href="https://solargis.com/maps-and-gis-data/download/australia">some of the world’s highest solar irradiance</a>. Multi-billion-dollar <a href="https://www.katherinetimes.com.au/story/6285081/plans-for-worlds-biggest-solar-farm-at-tennant-creek/">solar</a> and <a href="https://asianrehub.com/">wind/solar/green hydrogen</a> facilities are being developed.</p>
<p>Third, the Indigenous owners and majority inhabitants are among the poorest Australians. <a href="https://www.5050foundation.edu.au/assets/reports/documents/8117041e.pdf">Only 35% of Aboriginal adults</a> in very remote Australia are formally employed. <a href="https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/145053/1/CAEPR_Census_Paper_2.pdf">Over 50% of Indigenous people</a> in these areas live below the poverty line.</p>
<p>Such poverty is explained partly by past colonisation and associated social exclusion and neglect, geographic isolation from market capitalism and labour markets, and different priorities.</p>
<p>Having legally proven continuity of customs, traditions and connection to reclaimed ancestral lands, landowners generally look to care for their country. They use its natural resources for domestic non-commercial purposes as allowed by law.</p>
<p>But Indigenous people continually struggle to inhabit these lands. Their dispersed small settlements range from townships to homelands. Government support is minimal and policy intentionally discouraging.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/building-in-ways-that-meet-the-needs-of-australias-remote-regions-106071">Building in ways that meet the needs of Australia’s remote regions</a>
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<h2>The problem with official development models</h2>
<p>Since federation, many government policy proposals to “develop the north” have sought to replicate the economic growth trajectory of the temperate south. Such plans are based on state-sanctioned, often environmentally damaging, market capitalism.</p>
<p>The latest version is the 2015 <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/our-north-our-future-white-paper-on-developing-northern-australia">Our North, Our Future</a> white paper, released after a <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Former_Committees/Northern_Australia/Inquiry_into_the_Development_of_Northern_Australia/Tabled_Reports">parliamentary inquiry</a>. In <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Former_Committees/Northern_Australia/Inquiry_into_the_Development_of_Northern_Australia/Submissions">submission 136</a>, Francis Markham and I asked, “developing whose north for whom and in what way?” We pointed out 48% of the north’s <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Products/1308.7%7EMar+2009%7EMain+Features%7ENorth+Australia+Unit+Update?OpenDocument">3 million square kilometres</a> was under Indigenous title at that time, and Indigenous ideas about the land are often very different from those of the government and corporate, mainly extractive, interests.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-keys-to-unlock-northern-australia-have-already-been-cut-69713">The keys to unlock Northern Australia have already been cut</a>
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<p>Four years on, a <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/NorthernAustraliaAgenda/NorthernAustraliaAgenda/Terms_of_Reference">Senate select inquiry</a> is examining how the Our North, Our Future agenda is progressing. A specific reference to First Nations people has been added. In <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/NorthernAustraliaAgenda/NorthernAustraliaAgenda/Submissions">submission 13</a>, we highlighted four fundamental changes over the past five years.</p>
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<li><p>the Indigenous land share of northern Australia has <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/DocumentStore.ashx?id=45675035-0fd3-4698-b1a6-0e3883f82369&subId=669953">grown to 60%</a></p></li>
<li><p>Indigenous people are living in deeper poverty partly <a href="https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/145053/1/CAEPR_Census_Paper_2.pdf">due to punitive changes to income-support arrangements</a> </p></li>
<li><p>growing scientific consensus that global warming will have escalating <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/DocumentStore.ashx?id=45675035-0fd3-4698-b1a6-0e3883f82369&subId=669953">negative impacts on northern Australia</a> </p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/DocumentStore.ashx?id=45675035-0fd3-4698-b1a6-0e3883f82369&subId=669953">slowing population growth</a> suggests the white paper’s <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/our-north-our-future-white-paper-on-developing-northern-australia">goal of a population of 4–5 million by 2060</a> (from just over 1 million now) lacks realism.</p></li>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/you-cant-boost-australias-north-to-5-million-people-without-a-proper-plan-125063">You can't boost Australia's north to 5 million people without a proper plan</a>
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<p>We are at a critical crossroads in policy thinking about northern Australia.</p>
<p>The dominant approach sees it as ripe for capitalist development, extraction and associated economic growth, irrespective of environmental consequences. Corporate pressure to undertake <a href="https://theconversation.com/expanding-gas-mining-threatens-our-climate-water-and-health-113047">risky fracking</a> for oil and gas and to develop <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/our-north-our-future-white-paper-on-developing-northern-australia">industrial-scale agriculture and aquaculture projects</a> epitomises such thinking.</p>
<h2>The zero-emissions alternative</h2>
<p>The holistic focus of ecological economics informs an alternative approach. It’s based on the tenet that everything connects to everything else: the economy is embedded in society and society is embedded in the environment, the natural order.</p>
<p>This line of reasoning resonates with the focus of many Indigenous landowners on the need to nurture kin, ancestral country and living, natural resources.</p>
<p>Ecological economics distinguishes between economic growth that depletes non-renewable resources irrespective of environmental harm, and forms of development that focus on human well-being, cultural and environmental values.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-ecological-economics-and-why-do-we-need-to-talk-about-it-123915">What is ‘ecological economics’ and why do we need to talk about it?</a>
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<p>Development in the north might take many transformational forms as we strive for a <a href="https://vimeo.com/337193985">zero-emissions economy</a>.</p>
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<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/337193985" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Economist Ross Garnaut discusses the potential of a zero-emissions economy in Australia.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Indigenous-titled and peopled lands are well positioned to drive this in three proven ways:</p>
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<li>by intensifying projects that reduce emissions and sequester carbon</li>
<li>by increasing efforts to conserve biodiversity by managing and potentially reversing impacts of invasive species</li>
<li>by becoming key players in the renewables sector through massive projects for domestic energy use and export.</li>
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<p>The same landscapes can be used for sustainable wildlife harvesting for food and diverse forms of cultural production for income. These uses accord with Indigenous tradition and leave minimal environmental footprints.</p>
<p>Policy and practice must be informed by the environmental perspectives of Indigenous landowners, which are highly compatible with the core concepts of ecological economics.</p>
<p>In these ways, the North could emerge as a powerhouse region beyond current imaginaries. The climate crisis makes this transformation essential. </p>
<p>As ecological economies, remote Indigenous lands could deliver sustainable livelihoods to Indigenous people and contribute significantly to a zero-emissions economy of critical benefit to national and global communities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123917/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jon Altman if a director of a number of not-for-profits including the Karrkad Kanjdji Trust and Original Power. He is the chair of the research committee of The Australia Institute. </span></em></p>Expanding on sustainable practices in remote parts of Australia can deliver great benefits to both local Indigenous owners and national and global communities.Jon Altman, Emeritus professor, School of Regulation and Global Governance, ANU, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1231872019-09-15T20:18:30Z2019-09-15T20:18:30ZAustralia to attend climate summit empty-handed despite UN pleas to ‘come with a plan’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292433/original/file-20190913-8674-yd9rg1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Port Kembla industrial area in NSW. Industry emissions can be cut by improving efficiency, shifting to electricity and closing old plants.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><strong>This story is part of Covering Climate Now, a global collaboration of more than 250 news outlets to strengthen coverage of the climate story.</strong></em></p>
<p>Climate action will be on the world stage again at a meeting of world leaders in New York on September 23. The United Nations has convened the event and urged countries to “come with a plan” for ambitious emissions reduction.</p>
<p>UN Secretary-General António Guterres called the meeting because he <a href="https://unclimatesummit.org/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIzbTFpZ7Q5AIVj4BwCh18jgCbEAAYASAAEgJuMPD_BwE">says global efforts to tackle climate change are running off-track</a>. He wants leaders to present concrete, realistic pathways to strengthen their existing national emissions pledges and move towards net zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>Australia is not expected to propose any significant new actions or goals. Prime Minister Scott Morrison - in the US at the time to visit President Donald Trump - <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/12/scott-morrison-wont-attend-un-climate-summit-despite-being-in-the-us">will not attend the summit</a>. Foreign Minister Marise Payne will attend, and is likely to have to fend off heavy criticism over Australia’s slow progress on climate action.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rivf479bW8Q?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
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<h2>Australia: procrastinator or paragon?</h2>
<p>Australia has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/18/australia-quizzed-by-eu-and-china-on-whether-it-can-meet-2030-paris-climate-target">gained an international reputation</a> as a <a href="https://www.climate-change-performance-index.org">climate action laggard</a> - plagued by <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-australia-climate-policy-battles-are-endlessly-reheated-114971">political acrimony</a> over climate change, offering few policies to reduce emissions and embroiled in <a href="https://theconversation.com/pacific-island-nations-will-no-longer-stand-for-australias-inaction-on-climate-change-121976">diplomatic rifts with our Pacific neighbours</a> over, among other things, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-16/australia-slammed-watering-down-action-climate-change-pacific/11420986">support for coal</a>. </p>
<p>For many afar, it is difficult to understand the policy vacuum in a country so vulnerable to climate change.</p>
<p>In turn, the federal government points out that Australia is one of the few countries that has fully met its emissions reductions targets under the Kyoto protocol period to 2020, and says that it expects to meet the 2030 Paris emissions targets.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292435/original/file-20190913-8668-4ffztr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292435/original/file-20190913-8668-4ffztr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292435/original/file-20190913-8668-4ffztr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292435/original/file-20190913-8668-4ffztr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292435/original/file-20190913-8668-4ffztr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292435/original/file-20190913-8668-4ffztr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292435/original/file-20190913-8668-4ffztr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">An island in the low-lying Pacific nation of Tuvalu, which is threatened by inundation from rising seas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>Come with a plan, and make it good</h2>
<p>The landmark Paris agreement includes a global goal to hold average temperature increase to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to keep warming below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.</p>
<p>Countries set so-called <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs">“nationally determined contributions”</a> (NDCs) outlining an emissions reduction target and <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1718/Quick_Guides/ParisAgreement">how they will get there</a>.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-declaring-a-national-climate-emergency-would-neither-be-realistic-or-effective-123371">Why declaring a national climate emergency would neither be realistic or effective</a>
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<p>Australia set a target to reduce emissions by 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2030. Under the Paris treaty, the national pledges should be reviewed and strengthened every five years.</p>
<p>The UN <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/un-climate-summit-2019.shtml">convened the summit</a> to ensure countries are developing concrete, realistic pathways to enhance their NDCs. The new pledges should be in line with a 45% cut to global greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade, and net-zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<h1>Australia’s emissions are rising</h1>
<p>Australia’s annual greenhouse gas emissions are <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/climate-science-data/greenhouse-gas-measurement/publications/quarterly-update-australias-nggi-mar-2019">about 12% lower than in 2005</a>, the base year for the Paris target. But since 2013 they have steadily risen, and are continuing to rise.</p>
<p>In the electricity sector, <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/Planning_and_Forecasting/ISP/2018/Integrated-System-Plan-2018_final.pdf">recent declines in coal-fired power</a> and <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/Pages/News%20and%20updates/NewsItem.aspx?ListId=19b4efbb-6f5d-4637-94c4-121c1f96fcfe&ItemId=684">increases in renewables</a> are reducing carbon output. But those savings are being negated by <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/australia-s-greenhouse-emissions-set-new-seven-year-highs-on-gas-boom-20190830-p52mbe.html">rises in the gas industry</a> and from <a href="http://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/reviews/light-vehicle-emissions-standards-australia/opportunities-reduce-light-vehicle-emissions">transport</a>. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292423/original/file-20190913-8697-19feftk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292423/original/file-20190913-8697-19feftk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292423/original/file-20190913-8697-19feftk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292423/original/file-20190913-8697-19feftk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292423/original/file-20190913-8697-19feftk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=635&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292423/original/file-20190913-8697-19feftk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=635&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292423/original/file-20190913-8697-19feftk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=635&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions, past and projected. Data drawn from Department of the Environment and Energy report titled ‘Australia’s emissions projections 2018’</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Department of the Environment and Energy</span></span>
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<p>Nevertheless, the Australian government is loudly confident of reaching the Paris target - including by using a large amount of <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/explained-why-kyoto-carryover-credits-are-so-important-20190402-p519ws">accumulated credits from the Kyoto Protocol period</a>. On average, Australia stayed below the Kyoto emissions budgets from 2008 to 2020, and the plan is to count this “carry-over” against an expected overshoot in the period to 2030. </p>
<p>This may be compatible with the Paris Agreement rule book. But it would <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/tiny-nation-s-challenge-australia-s-carbon-carryover-credits-20190630-p522n0.html">receive scorn from countries</a> that care about climate commitments. The Kyoto targets were not in line with the ambition now spelled out in the Paris agreement, and Australia’s Kyoto targets are seen by many countries as lax. </p>
<h1>We could do so much better</h1>
<p>With meaningful policy effort, Australia could meet the Paris target without resorting to Kyoto credits, and possibly meet a much more ambitious target. This would set us up better for deeper cuts down the road. </p>
<p>Rapid and large emissions reductions could be made in the electricity sector - especially if the <a href="https://arena.gov.au/blog/booming-renewables-breaking-records/">investment boom in renewables </a>of the last two years were to continue. However the latest indications are that renewables investment <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-met-its-renewable-energy-target-but-dont-pop-the-champagne-122939">is tailing off</a>. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292442/original/file-20190913-8661-1ou88jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292442/original/file-20190913-8661-1ou88jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292442/original/file-20190913-8661-1ou88jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292442/original/file-20190913-8661-1ou88jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292442/original/file-20190913-8661-1ou88jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292442/original/file-20190913-8661-1ou88jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292442/original/file-20190913-8661-1ou88jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The transition to renewables is transforming the electricity sector. Pictured: a high voltage electricity transmission tower in central Brisbane.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Large improvements can readily be made in transport by <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-trust-the-environmental-hype-about-electric-vehicles-the-economic-benefits-might-convince-you-115225">shifting to electric vehicles</a> and improving the rather <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/fuel-efficiency-21448">dismal fuel efficiency</a> of conventional cars still sold in Australia. Gas and coal use in industry can be cut by improving efficiency and shifting to electricity, and by phasing out some old energy-hungry and often uneconomic plants like aluminium smelters.</p>
<p>The gas industry can do better through improved management of leaks and reduced venting of methane; we can also improve agricultural practices and land management.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-why-carbon-dioxide-has-such-outsized-influence-on-earths-climate-123064">Climate explained: why carbon dioxide has such outsized influence on Earth's climate</a>
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<p>The transition in the energy sector will definitely happen, based on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/renewables-will-be-cheaper-than-coal-in-the-future-here-are-the-numbers-84433">cost advantage of renewables</a>, unless governments actively stand in the way. The question is how quickly and smoothly it will happen.</p>
<p>The advantages of the renewables transition extend beyond our shores. Solar and wind energy could be <a href="https://www.chiefscientist.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/HydrogenCOAGWhitePaper_WEB.pdf">converted to carbon-free hydrogen</a> and other zero-emissions fuels at massive scale and then exported. Electricity could also be sent through <a href="https://theconversation.com/making-australia-a-renewable-energy-exporting-superpower-107285">undersea cables to Asia</a>. </p>
<p>This is shaping up as a real possibility, depending on technology costs and whether the world kicks the fossil fuel habit. </p>
<p>Outside electricity generation, policy measures are needed to achieve, or at least encourage, these changes. A price on carbon like <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/pricing-carbon">many countries now have</a>, would <a href="https://crawford.anu.edu.au/news-events/news/4406/carbon-price-cut-emissions">do a very good job</a>, combined with the right regulation and public investment. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292441/original/file-20190913-8701-nd85oo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292441/original/file-20190913-8701-nd85oo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292441/original/file-20190913-8701-nd85oo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292441/original/file-20190913-8701-nd85oo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292441/original/file-20190913-8701-nd85oo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292441/original/file-20190913-8701-nd85oo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292441/original/file-20190913-8701-nd85oo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Cattle stir up dust on a property outside Condobolin in NSW’s central west. Most of the nation is currently gripped by drought.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
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<h1>2050: defining a strategy</h1>
<p>Limiting the risk of catastrophic climate change demands that global emissions fall rapidly in coming decades. Keeping temperature rise to 2°C or less means reducing emissions to net-zero. </p>
<p>Australia will be expected to table strategies to get to net-zero by 2050 next year, at the <a href="https://sdg.iisd.org/events/2020-un-climate-change-conference-unfccc-cop-26/">UN’s climate COP, or “conference of the parties”.</a> That process should be a chance for Australian governments, industry and civil society to put heads together about how this could work. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nuclear-power-should-be-allowed-in-australia-but-only-with-a-carbon-price-123170">Nuclear power should be allowed in Australia – but only with a carbon price</a>
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<p>The year 2050 is beyond the horizon of most corporate interests vested in existing assets, and it allows greater emphasis on long term opportunities than on short term adjustments. This should encourage a more open discussion than the often acrimonious debates about 2030 emissions targets and short-term policies. </p>
<p>Australia should show the world it can imagine a zero-emissions future, and hatch the beginnings of a plan for it. It would help position the nation’s resources industries for the future and help with our international reputation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123187/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Jotzo leads research projects funded by various organisations, including the Australian government. </span></em></p>The UN has asked world leaders to bring concrete climate action plans to this week’s summit - and Australia is likely to cop heavy criticism.Frank Jotzo, Director, Centre for Climate and Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1167062019-05-10T12:44:13Z2019-05-10T12:44:13ZWales’s past was in coal but its future is in carbon farming<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273795/original/file-20190510-183080-h5pe4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sheep-on-mountain-south-wales-159339512?src=LKhXky-93RR2u4PtITC23A-1-15">Thomas Jeffries/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/net-zero-the-uks-contribution-to-stopping-global-warming/">new report</a> from the Committee on Climate Change has outlined how the UK should – and could – reduce its carbon emissions to net zero by 2050. While an ambitious target in itself, the commission predicts Scotland can meet it a little earlier, by 2045, while England will hit the target on time. Wales, however, has only been set a goal of 95% reduction by 2050.</p>
<p>Coming just days after <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-48093720">Wales declared a climate emergency</a>, the reduced goal has been <a href="https://gov.wales/written-statement-committee-climate-change-advice-long-term-emissions-target">met with understanding</a> from the Welsh government – but why is it that the committee believes Wales cannot meet net zero? With wind power now cheaper than fossil fuel sources, polluting coal and gas fired power stations will not be replaced in Wales, meaning that the electricity sector should be relatively straightforward to decarbonise. </p>
<p>However, the accompanying analysis notes that Wales has relatively little capacity for carbon capture and storage, to take carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and trap it underground. Progress in other areas has been slow too. The report states that less than 5% of the energy used for heating buildings comes from low-carbon sources across the UK, and less than 0.5% of the miles driven are in low-carbon vehicles. But the reduced target is not because of these areas alone – it is mainly due to the fact that the agricultural industry will be difficult to decarbonise. </p>
<h2>Farmers’ burden</h2>
<p>Some <a href="https://gweddill.gov.wales/statistics-and-research/survey-agricultural-horticulture/?lang=en">90% of the land</a> in Wales is in the hands of
“<a href="https://gov.wales/sites/default/files/consultations/2018-07/brexit-and-our-land-consultation-document_0.pdf">farmers, foresters or other stewards of the landscape</a>”. Climate, soil quality and landscape make the country relatively unsuited to arable agriculture, so the industry is dominated by cattle and sheep, which produce the potent greenhouse gas methane as part of their digestive process. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-will-affect-dairy-cows-and-milk-production-in-the-uk-new-study-101843">How climate change will affect dairy cows and milk production in the UK – new study</a>
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<p>From a farmer’s perspective, it might seem that agriculture is being asked to shoulder a large burden of emission reductions compared to other sectors. But looking at the detail, the report suggests almost the opposite. It recognises that agriculture is particularly hard to decarbonise but, the problem is that given the measures proposed for other sectors, the committee’s figures show agriculture will go from its current position as one of the UK’s lower emission sectors to a major emitter by 2050. </p>
<iframe title="2050 emissions by sector in the UK." aria-label="Stacked Column Chart" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/eYKuX/3/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="569"></iframe>
<p>Livestock farming is the lifeblood of the rural economy in Wales, with enormous cultural and historical significance. The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2005/mar/04/communities.business">economic collapse</a> that followed the closure of coal mines in the South Wales valleys is a lesson in how not to change the status quo. Unemployment is still high in this area decades afterwards. The question then is how Welsh farming can respond to changes in consumer demand and climate change without damaging the economy.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/carbon-farming-how-agriculture-can-both-feed-people-and-fight-climate-change-111593">Carbon farming: how agriculture can both feed people and fight climate change</a>
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<p>The committee’s recommendations include a reduction of between 20% and 50% in beef, lamb and dairy consumption. It notes that even this target would still mean we will be eating more of these foods than recommended in healthy eating guidelines. In order for these dietary shifts to reduce emissions in practice, farmers will need to produce less livestock rather than simply export any excess. This means that <a href="http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/science-and-technology-committee/technologies-for-meeting-clean-growth-emissions-reduction-targets/oral/101230.html">redesigning agricultural support payments</a> will be an essential component of any change.</p>
<h2>From coal to carbon</h2>
<p>Work by our colleagues in Aberystwyth has led to <a href="https://impact.ref.ac.uk/casestudies/CaseStudy.aspx?Id=42089">incremental improvements</a> in the efficiency of ruminant agriculture via grassland improvement and animal breeding. For example, reseeding pasture with high sugar grass increases milk production in dairy cattle and weight gain in both beef and sheep, and reduces negative environmental impacts. These grass varieties now account for almost a third of perennial rye grass seed sales across Wales, as farmers improve their land. </p>
<p>However, livestock efficiency gains alone are unlikely to be sufficient, so by 2050 Wales will need to be farming differently. The committee’s report suggests that a fifth of agricultural land will need to be used for other purposes, such as growing <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/biomass-in-a-low-carbon-economy/">bioenergy crops</a>, which can be burned to generate electricity, and forestry that can <a href="https://www.iwa.wales/click/2018/02/wales-needs-trees-arent-planting/">sequester carbon</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/agroforestry-can-help-the-uk-meet-climate-change-commitments-without-cutting-livestock-numbers-108395">Agroforestry can help the UK meet climate change commitments without cutting livestock numbers</a>
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<p>The day-to-day practicalities of farming for carbon are not the same as farming for food, but turning over 20% of a farm to a different purpose does not need to spell the end of a culture or a way of life. By 2050 Wales can have a bio-economy, one based on natural resources rather than fossil fuels. Other industries that are reliant on fossil fuels will also need to change; plastics can already be made from <a href="https://www.wrap.org.uk/content/understanding-plastic-packaging-pdf">plants instead of oil</a>, and the construction industry is increasingly turning to <a href="https://www.arup.com/perspectives/publications/research/section/rethinking-timber-buildings">timber engineering</a> to reduce its reliance on concrete. These changes will create demand for plant feedstocks that Welsh farmers will be well placed to provide. </p>
<p>Reaching the 95% emission target by 2050 is ambitious but achievable. For Wales to reach net zero, sacrifices will need to be made, both by industry and the public. As a nation, Wales is blessed with natural resources — they are not in short supply. Farmers are key to realising this opportunity. While the recent history of Wales was built on coal, its future will be built on the bio-economy.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1116706">Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn’t.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116706/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Judith Thornton works for Aberystwyth University, on the BEACON project. BEACON is funded through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) by the Welsh European Funding Office (WEFO), part of the Welsh Government, under the Convergence programme for West Wales and the Valleys. She has an interest in low carbon building materials and bioenergy crops.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Iain Donnison works for Aberystwyth University and receives research funding principally from the Biotechnology & Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) for projects including a Core Strategic Programme in Resilient Crops, and the Supergen Bioenergy Hub, and also the Welsh European Funding Office for the BEACON Biorefing Centre through European Regional Development funds. He was a member of the external advisory group for the Climate Change Committee's Report on Bioenergy. </span></em></p>To hit emissions targets, Wales will need to drastically reassess how 90% of its landscape is used.Judith Thornton, Low Carbon Manager (BEACON), Aberystwyth UniversityIain Donnison, Professor of Biological Environmental and Rural Sciences, Aberystwyth UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1104752019-02-14T15:48:14Z2019-02-14T15:48:14ZCarbon capture on power stations burning woodchips is not the green gamechanger many think it is<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259036/original/file-20190214-1730-1miz45g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Drax biomass plant, Yorkshire. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/drax-power-station-cooling-towers-biomass-775570336?src=ZMUbgY5tJ_5v1CqampQ_Bw-1-2">Coatsey</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The UK’s efforts to develop facilities to remove carbon emissions from power stations took a step forward with <a href="https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/worlds-first-for-carbon-capture-at-drax-power-plant/10039829.article">news</a> of a demonstrator project getting underway at the Drax plant in north Yorkshire. Where most electricity carbon capture projects have focused on coal-fired power, the Drax project is the first to capture carbon dioxide (CO₂) from a plant purely burning wood chips – or biomass, to use the industry jargon. </p>
<p>This so-called Bio Energy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) demonstrator is only a pilot project; it covers just a tiny proportion of emissions from the 4GW plant and Drax has no plan yet for storing the captured gas. But coming after a decade in which various other UK carbon capture initiatives and government competitions <a href="https://qz.com/972939/the-uk-could-have-changed-the-way-the-world-fights-global-warming-instead-it-blew-200-million/">have</a> ended up <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/carbon-capture-storage-technology-greenhouse-gases-climate-change-government-failure-cost-taxpayers-a7707416.html">scrapped</a>, it is certainly progress. </p>
<p>Some specialists <a href="https://www.bioenergy-news.com/display_news/14147/comment_why_beccs_will_be_critical_to_deliver_an_affordable_energy_system_transition_in_the_uk/">believe</a> this technology has a bright future in the UK, envisaging big wood-fired power plants whose carbon emissions are prevented from returning to the atmosphere. Other countries <a href="https://www.bioenergy-news.com/display_news/13867/indonesian_and_austrian_beccs_research_initiative_announced/">are looking</a> at it seriously, too, and Drax and its partners have been <a href="https://www.energy-reporters.com/industry/carbon-capture-pilot-launched-in-uk/">talking up</a> the <a href="https://www.drax.com/technology/negative-emissions-techniques-technologies-need-know/">prospect</a> of eventually achieving “negative emissions” at the plant in Yorkshire. But this is fundamentally misleading. Without wanting to reject carbon capture out of hand, it is time to get realistic about what can be achieved with this technology. </p>
<h2>The carbon capture delusion</h2>
<p>The logic of the negative emissions argument is that burning wood is “<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47163840">carbon neutral</a>” because trees absorb CO₂ from the atmosphere in the first place, and you are simply releasing it back. When you combine this with a carbon capture facility, it is argued, you are therefore removing CO₂ from the atmosphere overall. </p>
<p>But this view considers the process of burning wood in isolation. It ignores, just as an example, a wider chain of activities including planting and harvesting the trees, converting the wood into chips and then <a href="https://www.energy-reporters.com/industry/carbon-capture-pilot-launched-in-uk/">shipping them</a> to the power plant – not to mention storing and using the captured CO₂ once the wood has been burned. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259051/original/file-20190214-1758-10i0a84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259051/original/file-20190214-1758-10i0a84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259051/original/file-20190214-1758-10i0a84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259051/original/file-20190214-1758-10i0a84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259051/original/file-20190214-1758-10i0a84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259051/original/file-20190214-1758-10i0a84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259051/original/file-20190214-1758-10i0a84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259051/original/file-20190214-1758-10i0a84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Carbon neutral?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/backoe-pick-woodchips-trucks-storage-outdoor-1062737072?src=zLGWuR15nULI1tRBdhXXVQ-1-3">Amarin Jitnathum</a></span>
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<p>There is also a misconception that burning wood produces only CO₂ – a BBC News reporter was saying as much the other day. But if this were the case, we would not need to separate CO₂ from other flue gases. Some of the carbon in the wood could become carbon monoxide, for instance, which, if not captured, would <a href="https://esseacourses.strategies.org/module.php?module_id=170">indirectly contribute</a> to levels of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere. The process also produces other noxious emissions, such as <a href="https://www.epa.gov/indoor-air-quality-iaq/technical-overview-volatile-organic-compounds">volatile organic compounds</a> and oxides of nitrogen, which are responsible for acid rain.</p>
<p>Too many people also tend to see wood as better than oil or coal because the amount of CO₂ produced by burning a given unit is much lower for wood. But this overlooks the fact that you get considerably more heat from burning a unit of oil or coal than from wood. In other words, you have to burn much more wood to produce the same amount of heat, so the carbon emissions are actually much more than they appear. This leads people to greatly underestimate the amount of land we will need for trees if biomass power is to become a much bigger part of the energy mix. The Drax plant alone <a href="https://www.energy-reporters.com/industry/carbon-capture-pilot-launched-in-uk/">uses</a> more wood than the UK produces every year, for instance. </p>
<p>The blinkered thinking around carbon capture also goes way beyond biomass power plants. There are now <a href="https://indd.adobe.com/view/2dab1be7-edd0-447d-b020-06242ea2cf3b">43 carbon capture facilities</a> either operating or in development – ten in the US, followed by Canada and Norway. <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=33552">Very few</a> are attached to power plants so far, with most instead removing CO₂ from <a href="https://www.bgs.ac.uk/science/CO2/home.html">oil fields</a> or <a href="http://www.dmp.wa.gov.au/Documents/Community-Education/Shute_Creek.pdf">gas processing plants</a>. But generous new subsidies in the likes of <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/carbon-capture-gains-momentum#gs.Q8rt5vWM">the US</a> are making the industry optimistic about carbon capture in the power sector regardless of which feedstock is burned. </p>
<p>Across the board, there is the same tendency to ignore the carbon emissions in everything from coal/gas/oil extraction to CO₂ storage. We also hear very little about the solvents traditionally used to separate the CO₂ from the rest of the combustion gases. These amines are highly corrosive and bad for the environment, plus there are CO₂ emissions from producing them in the first place. </p>
<h2>A different approach</h2>
<p>My point is not that we should be against carbon capture plants; the technology is much needed, and pilots like the one at Drax are important for possibly scaling up the process and measuring what is achievable. But when scientists conduct these measurements, they need to consider the complete chain to look at all of components involved – including, in the case of wood, the land used for the trees, and the consequences of deforestation. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259052/original/file-20190214-1717-1h02x7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259052/original/file-20190214-1717-1h02x7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259052/original/file-20190214-1717-1h02x7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259052/original/file-20190214-1717-1h02x7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259052/original/file-20190214-1717-1h02x7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259052/original/file-20190214-1717-1h02x7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259052/original/file-20190214-1717-1h02x7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259052/original/file-20190214-1717-1h02x7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Fore!</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/area-illegal-deforestation-vegetation-native-brazilian-1156323859?src=sAzpQi5gEfzFJGzZoVWk2A-1-22">Tarcisio Schnaider</a></span>
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<p>We also need much more discussion and research into which solvents are the most environmentally friendly for gas separation: Drax <a href="https://www.drax.com/press_release/europes-first-bioenergy-carbon-capture-storage-pilot-now-underway/">claims</a> to be using a new solvent with environmental benefits, so it will be interesting to see what the results look like down the line. </p>
<p>Clearly, our society needs energy. We would never be able to sustain ourselves if we eliminated fossil fuels completely. Capturing carbon dioxide emissions certainly has a role to play in the energy systems of the future, but it needs to be appraised in a way that looks at the whole picture. </p>
<p>The reality is that if the UK and EU are <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46360212">serious about</a> being completely carbon neutral by 2050, it will have to use a <a href="https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/greenhouse-gas-removal/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI1J7396q74AIV6p3tCh0Awgu4EAAYASAAEgKg5vD_BwE">mixture</a> of methods and cut back more aggressively on the emissions <a href="https://theconversation.com/now-that-uk-nuclear-power-plans-are-in-tatters-its-vital-to-double-down-on-wind-and-solar-110253">being produced</a> in the first place. This is always going to be more efficient than any attempts to put the genie back in the bottle afterwards. Regardless of what anyone says about technological solutions to the carbon problem, it is almost impossible to get away from this basic fact.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110475/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raffaella Ocone does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Drax biomass plant in Yorkshire is the first in the world to pioneer carbon capture and some specialists see it as it has a bright future. But hold the rosy headlines.Raffaella Ocone, Chair of Chemical Engineering, Heriot-Watt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.