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Professor of Policy Analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate School

I am a principal researcher at RAND and Director of RAND's Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition. My research focuses on risk management and decision-making under conditions of deep uncertainty. I am a Fellow of the American Physical Society, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a coordinating lead author for Working Group II of the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. I was the Inaugural EADS Distinguished Visitor in Energy and Environment at the American Academy in Berlin and the inaugural president of the Society for Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty ( A Professor of Policy Analysis in the Pardee RAND Graduate School, I am an author of the book Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Longer-Term Policy Analysis.


  • –present
    Principal researcher, RAND Europe


  • 1986 
    Harvard University, Phd Physics