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Articles on Probabilities
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People tend to dislike uncertainty and risk – two things that are hard to avoid completely during a pandemic. That’s part of why it can feel especially draining to make even small decisions these days.
One in 1,000 years style descriptions apply to probabilities that don’t change. The likelihood of severe floods is increasing.
Tim Hortons changed Roll up the Rim to include a digital element. A statistician correctly predicted that playing on the last day of the contest would dramatically increase the odds of winning.
Policymakers need to figure out ways to sustain the behaviors that are helping flatten the curve as cities begin to end their lockdowns.
The Tim Hortons coffee chain has made some changes to its iconic Roll up the Rim contest, including the addition of “digital rolls.” A statistician explains how this changes the odds of winning.
People have to make countless decisions on a daily basis that involve some degree of risk, from boarding a plane to crossing the street. The trouble is most of us don’t weigh risk well.
People aren’t the perfectly rational, number-crunching risk-takers that traditional theory suggests. Research shows a whole variety of factors feed into risk-taking.
Top contributors
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Associate Professor, Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Waterloo
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Associate Professor of Markets, Public Policy and Law, Boston University
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Associate Professor of Marketing, University of Technology Sydney
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Professor of Economics, Tasmanian Behavioural Lab, University of Tasmania
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Professor of Economics and Psychology, Carnegie Mellon University
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Professor of Psychology, Carnegie Mellon University
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Associate Professor of Psychology, Rutgers University - Newark
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Ph.D. Student in Psychology, Rutgers University - Newark
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Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland
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Chercheur / Docteur en psychologie de la décision Ph. D., Université Laval
