tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/2-81931/articles2℃ – The Conversation2021-11-04T00:11:08Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1708662021-11-04T00:11:08Z2021-11-04T00:11:08ZGlobal emissions almost back to pre-pandemic levels after unprecedented drop in 2020, new analysis shows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429728/original/file-20211102-52617-94e7bh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C11%2C3980%2C2223&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shuttestock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Global carbon dioxide emissions have bounced back after COVID-19 restrictions and are likely to reach close to pre-pandemic levels this year, <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2021-386/">our analysis</a> released today has found.</p>
<p>The troubling finding comes as the COP26 climate talks continue in Glasgow in a last-ditch bid to keep dangerous global warming at bay. The analysis was undertaken by the <a href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget">Global Carbon Project</a>, a consortium of scientists from around the world who produce, collect and analyse global greenhouse gas information.</p>
<p>The fast recovery in CO₂ emissions, following last year’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-emissions-are-down-by-an-unprecedented-7-but-dont-start-celebrating-just-yet-151757">sharp drop</a>, should come as no surprise. The world’s strong economic rebound has created a surge in demand for energy, and the global energy system is still heavily dependent on fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Most concerning is the long-term upward trends of CO₂ emissions from oil and gas, and this year’s growth in coal emissions, which together are far from trending towards net-zero by 2050. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="people seated around U-shaped table" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429724/original/file-20211102-28770-1s1j889.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429724/original/file-20211102-28770-1s1j889.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=217&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429724/original/file-20211102-28770-1s1j889.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=217&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429724/original/file-20211102-28770-1s1j889.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=217&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429724/original/file-20211102-28770-1s1j889.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429724/original/file-20211102-28770-1s1j889.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429724/original/file-20211102-28770-1s1j889.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The troubling findings come as world leaders meet at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Evan Vucci/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The global emissions picture</h2>
<p>Global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels dropped by 5.4% in 2020, compared to the previous year. But they are set to increase by about 4.9% above 2020 levels this year, reaching 36.4 billion tonnes. This brings them almost back to 2019 levels.</p>
<p>We can expect another 2.9 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions this year from the net effect of everything we do to the land, including deforestation, degradation and re-vegetation. </p>
<p>This brings us to a total of 39.4 billion tonnes of CO₂ to be emitted by the end of this year.</p>
<p>The fast growth in emissions matches the corresponding large increase in energy demand as the global economy opens up, with the help of <a href="https://www.f4b-initiative.net/post/majority-of-17-2-trillion-covid-stimulus-packages-doing-more-harm-than-good-to-environment">US$17.2 trillion</a> in economic stimulus packages around the world.</p>
<p>CO₂ emissions from all fossil fuel types (coal, oil and natural gas) grew this year, with emissions from coal and natural gas set to grow more in 2021 than they fell in 2020. </p>
<p>Emissions from global coal use were declining before the pandemic hit in early 2020 but they surged back this year. Emissions from global gas use have returned to the rising trend seen before the pandemic. </p>
<p>CO₂ emissions from global oil use remain well below pre-pandemic levels but are expected to increase in coming years as road transport and aviation recover from COVID-related restrictions.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429469/original/file-20211031-17-1pa5f0i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429469/original/file-20211031-17-1pa5f0i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429469/original/file-20211031-17-1pa5f0i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429469/original/file-20211031-17-1pa5f0i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429469/original/file-20211031-17-1pa5f0i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429469/original/file-20211031-17-1pa5f0i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429469/original/file-20211031-17-1pa5f0i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429469/original/file-20211031-17-1pa5f0i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global fossil CO₂ emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: Global Carbon Project, https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Nations leading the emissions charge</h2>
<p>Emissions from China have recovered faster than other countries. It’s among the few countries where emissions grew in 2020 (by 1.4%) followed by a projected growth of 4% this year.</p>
<p>Taking these two years together, CO₂ emissions from China in 2021 are projected to be 5.5% above 2019 levels, reaching 11.1 billion tonnes. China accounted for 31% of global emissions in 2020.</p>
<p>Coal emissions in China are estimated to grow by 2.4% this year. If realised, it would match what was thought to be China’s peak coal emissions in 2013.</p>
<p>India’s CO₂ emissions are projected to grow even faster than China’s this year at 12.6%, after a 7.3% fall last year. Emissions this year are set to be 4.4% above 2019 levels – reaching 2.7 billion tonnes. India accounted for 7% of global emissions in 2020. </p>
<p>Emissions from both the US and European Union are projected to rise 7.6% this year. It would lead to emissions that are, respectively, 3.7% and 4.2% below 2019 levels.</p>
<p>US and EU, respectively, accounted for 14% and 7% of global emissions in 2020. </p>
<p>Emissions in the rest of the world (including all international transport, particularly aviation) are projected to rise 2.9% this year, but remain 4.2% below 2019 levels. Together, these countries represent 59% of global emissions.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429471/original/file-20211031-75805-1jh07jf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429471/original/file-20211031-75805-1jh07jf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429471/original/file-20211031-75805-1jh07jf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429471/original/file-20211031-75805-1jh07jf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429471/original/file-20211031-75805-1jh07jf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429471/original/file-20211031-75805-1jh07jf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429471/original/file-20211031-75805-1jh07jf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429471/original/file-20211031-75805-1jh07jf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Regional fossil CO₂ emissions 2019-2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: Global Carbon Project, https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The remaining carbon budget</h2>
<p>The relatively large changes in annual emissions over the past two years have had no discernible effect in the speed at which CO₂ accumulates in the atmosphere. </p>
<p>CO₂ concentrations, and associated global warming, are driven by the accumulation of greenhouse gases – particularly CO₂ – since the beginning of the industrial era. This accumulation has accelerated in recent decades. </p>
<p>To stop further global warming, global CO₂ emissions must stop or reach net-zero – the latter meaning that any remaining CO₂ emissions would have to be compensated for by removing an equivalent amount from the atmosphere.</p>
<p>Carbon budgets are a useful way of measuring how much CO₂ can be emitted for a given level of global warming. In our latest analysis, we updated the carbon budget outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf">IPCC</a>) in August this year.</p>
<p>From the beginning of 2022, the world can emit an additional 420 billion tonnes of CO₂ to limit global warming to 1.5°C, or 11 years of emissions at this year’s rate.</p>
<p>To limit global warming to 2°C, the world can emit an additional 1,270 billion tonnes of CO₂ – or 32 years of emissions at the current rate.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429886/original/file-20211103-19-fl69o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429886/original/file-20211103-19-fl69o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429886/original/file-20211103-19-fl69o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429886/original/file-20211103-19-fl69o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429886/original/file-20211103-19-fl69o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429886/original/file-20211103-19-fl69o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429886/original/file-20211103-19-fl69o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429886/original/file-20211103-19-fl69o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The remaining carbon budgets to limit warming to 1.5°C and 2°C. Updated from IPCC 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: Global Carbon Project, https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These budgets are the compass to net-zero emissions. Consistent with the pledge by <a href="https://eciu.net/netzerotracker">many countries</a> to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, CO₂ emissions need to decline by 1.4 billion tonnes each year, on average. </p>
<p>This is an amount comparable to the drop during 2020, of 1.9 billion tonnes. This fact highlights the extraordinary challenge ahead and the need to increase short- and long-term commitments to drive down global emissions.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="COP26: the world's biggest climate talks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong>This story is part of The Conversation’s coverage on COP26, the Glasgow climate conference, by experts from around the world.</strong>
<br><em>Amid a rising tide of climate news and stories, The Conversation is here to clear the air and make sure you get information you can trust. <a href="https://page.theconversation.com/cop26-glasgow-2021-climate-change-summit/"><strong>More.</strong></a></em> </p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170866/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pep Canadell receives funding from the Australian National Environmental Science Program - Climate Systems Hub.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Corinne Le Quéré receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement Nos. 821003 (4C) and 776810 (VERIFY), from the UN Natural Environment Research Council under grant NE/P021417/1 (SONATA) and NE/V011103/1 (Frontiers), and from the UK Royal Society under grant RP\R1\191063 (Research Professorship. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Glen Peters receives funding from European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement Nos. 821003 (4C), 776810 (VERIFY), 820846 (PARIS REINFORCE), and 958927 (CoCO2).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pierre Friedlingstein receives funding from the European Commission Horizon 2020 (H2020) 4C project. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robbie Andrew receives funding from European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement Nos. 821003 (4C), 776810 (VERIFY), and 958927 (CoCO2).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob Jackson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Most concerning is the long-term upward trends of CO₂ emissions form burning fossil fuels, which are far from trending towards net-zero by 2050.Pep Canadell, Chief research scientist, Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere; and Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIROCorinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor of Climate Change Science, University of East AngliaGlen Peters, Research Director, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - OsloPierre Friedlingstein, Chair, Mathematical Modelling of Climate, University of ExeterRobbie Andrew, Senior Researcher, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - OsloRob Jackson, Professor, Department of Earth System Science, and Chair of the Global Carbon Project, Stanford UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1589132021-04-14T20:09:54Z2021-04-14T20:09:54Z‘Failure is not an option’: after a lost decade on climate action, the 2020s offer one last chance<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394911/original/file-20210414-21-g0xgpd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C17%2C5742%2C3794&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In May 2011, almost precisely a decade ago, the government-appointed Climate Commission released its <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/34ab075fb66ce1b08976ed1505bec7a3.pdf">inaugural report</a>. Titled The Critical Decade, the report’s final section warned that to keep global temperature rises to 2°C this century, “the decade between now and 2020 is critical”.</p>
<p>As the report noted, if greenhouse gas emissions peaked around 2011, the world’s emissions-reduction trajectory would have been easily manageable: net-zero by around 2060, and a maximum emissions reduction rate of 3.7% each year. Delaying the emissions peak by only a decade would require a trebling of this task – a maximum 9% reduction each year.</p>
<p>But, of course, the decade to 2020 did not mark the beginning of the world’s emissions-reduction journey. Global emissions <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020">accelerated</a> before dropping marginally under COVID-19 restrictions, then quickly <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/after-steep-drop-in-early-2020-global-carbon-dioxide-emissions-have-rebounded-strongly">rebounding</a>.</p>
<p>Our new report, <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/net-zero-emissions-plummet-decade/">released today</a>, shows the immense cost of this inaction. It is now virtually certain Earth will pass the critical 1.5°C temperature rise this century – most likely in the 2030s. Now, without delay, humanity must focus on holding warming to well below 2°C. For Australia, that means tripling its emissions reduction goal this decade to 75%. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Young girl holds sign at climate protest" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394910/original/file-20210414-19-13bqe54.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394910/original/file-20210414-19-13bqe54.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394910/original/file-20210414-19-13bqe54.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394910/original/file-20210414-19-13bqe54.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394910/original/file-20210414-19-13bqe54.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394910/original/file-20210414-19-13bqe54.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394910/original/file-20210414-19-13bqe54.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 2020s offer a last chance to keep warming within 2°C this century, and leave a habitable planet for future generations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Aim high, go fast</h2>
<p>The Climate Council report is titled Aim High: Go Fast: Why Emissions Need To Plummet This Decade. It acknowledges the <a href="https://theconversation.com/earth-may-temporarily-pass-dangerous-1-5-warming-limit-by-2024-major-new-report-says-145450">multiple</a> lines of <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-when-might-the-world-exceed-1-5c-and-2c-of-global-warming">evidence</a> showing it will be virtually impossible to keep average global temperature rise to 1.5°C or below this century, without a period of significant overshoot and “drawdown”. (This refers to a hypothetical period in which warming exceeds 1.5°C then cools back down due to the removal of carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere.) </p>
<p>The <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/">increasing rate</a> of climate change, insights from past climates, and a vanishing <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/2019/zero-in-on-the-remaining-carbon-budget-and-decadal-warming-rates/">carbon budget</a> all suggest the 1.5°C threshold will in fact be crossed very soon, in the 2030s.</p>
<p>There is no safe level of global warming. Already, at a global average temperature rise of <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-how-the-world-warmed-in-2019">1.1°C</a>, we’re experiencing more powerful <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2956/how-climate-change-may-be-impacting-storms-over-earths-tropical-oceans/">storms</a>, destructive <a href="http://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/1760/explainer-what-is-a-marine-heatwave/">marine</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48756480">land</a> heatwaves, and a new age of <a href="https://www.anu.edu.au/news/all-news/australia%E2%80%99s-black-summer-a-climate-wake-up-call">megafires</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cyclone-seroja-just-demolished-parts-of-wa-and-our-warming-world-will-bring-more-of-the-same-158769">Cyclone Seroja just demolished parts of WA – and our warming world will bring more of the same</a>
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<p>As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">has warned</a>, the consequences of breaching 1.5°C warming will be stark. Heatwaves, droughts, bushfires and intense rain events will become even more severe. Sea levels will rise, species will become extinct and crop yields will fall. Coral reefs, including the Great Barrier Reef, will decline by up to 90%.</p>
<p>And perhaps most frighteningly, overshooting 1.5°C runs a greater risk of crossing “<a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252">tipping points</a>”, such as the collapse of ice sheets and the release of natural carbon stores in forests and permafrost. Crossing those thresholds may set off irreversible changes to the global climate system, and destroy critical ecosystems on which life on Earth depends. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An ice sheet in Greenland" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394913/original/file-20210414-13-1htlheb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394913/original/file-20210414-13-1htlheb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394913/original/file-20210414-13-1htlheb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394913/original/file-20210414-13-1htlheb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394913/original/file-20210414-13-1htlheb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394913/original/file-20210414-13-1htlheb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394913/original/file-20210414-13-1htlheb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Climate tipping points, such as melting ice sheets, may set off irreversible changes in natural systems.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">John McConnico/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Every fraction of a degree matters</h2>
<p>The outlook may be dire, but every fraction of a degree of avoided warming matters. Its value will be measured in terms of human lives, species and ecosystems saved. We can, and must, limit warming to well below 2°C. The goal is very challenging, but still achievable.</p>
<p>The strategies, technologies and pathways needed to tackle the climate challenge are <a href="https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/resource/decarbonisation-futures-solutions-actions-and-benchmarks-for-a-net-zero-emissions-australia/">now emerging</a> as fast as the risks are escalating. And in the lead-up to the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow later this year, there’s widespread momentum for international cooperation and action.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/seriously-ugly-heres-how-australia-will-look-if-the-world-heats-by-3-c-this-century-157875">Seriously ugly: here's how Australia will look if the world heats by 3°C this century</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Many of Australia’s strategic allies and major trading partners – including the <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-bidens-win-australia-needs-to-step-up-and-recommit-to-this-vital-un-climate-change-fund-150444">United States</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55273004">Europe</a>, the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-sets-ambitious-new-climate-target-ahead-of-un-summit">United Kingdom</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/china-just-stunned-the-world-with-its-step-up-on-climate-action-and-the-implications-for-australia-may-be-huge-147268">China</a> – are <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/climate-action-overseas-some-good-news-change/">starting to move</a> on climate change. But Australia is standing still. This is despite our nation being <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar5/">one of the most vulnerable</a> to climate change – and despite us having some of the <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/article/downloads/ISF_100%25_Australian_Renewable_Energy_Report.pdf">world’s best</a> renewable energy resources. </p>
<p>We must urgently grab these opportunities. We propose Australia radically scale up its emissions-reduction targets – to a 75% cut by 2030 from 2005 levels (up from the current 26-28% target). Australia should also aim to reach net-zero emissions by 2035. Doing so by 2050 – a goal Prime Minister Scott Morrison says is his <a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrison-has-embraced-net-zero-emissions-now-its-time-to-walk-the-talk-154478">preference</a> – is too late.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A coal plant" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394918/original/file-20210414-17-flf6e4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394918/original/file-20210414-17-flf6e4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394918/original/file-20210414-17-flf6e4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394918/original/file-20210414-17-flf6e4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394918/original/file-20210414-17-flf6e4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394918/original/file-20210414-17-flf6e4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394918/original/file-20210414-17-flf6e4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Polluting industries such as coal will have to give way to cleaner industries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A huge but achievable task</h2>
<p>Such dramatic action is clearly daunting. There are political, technical and other challenges ahead because action has been delayed. But a 75% emissions-reduction target is a fair and achievable contribution to the global effort. </p>
<p>Australia’s unrivalled potential for renewable energy means it can transform the electricity sector and beyond. Electric vehicles can lead to carbon-free transport and renewably generated electricity and green hydrogen can decarbonise industry. </p>
<p>The emerging new economy is <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/clean-jobs-plan/">bringing jobs</a> to regional Australia and building cleaner cities by reducing fossil fuel pollution. There is staggering potential for a massive new industry built on the export to Asia of clean energy and products made from <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/australias-national-hydrogen-strategy">clean hydrogen</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/morrison-has-embraced-net-zero-emissions-its-time-to-walk-the-talk-154478">Morrison has embraced net-zero emissions – it's time to walk the talk</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>State, territory and local governments are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/02/net-zero-emissions-by-2050-target-climate-summit-president-thanks-australian-states-but-not-morrison-government">leading the way</a> in this transformation. The federal government must now join the effort.</p>
<p>The transition will no doubt be disruptive at times, and involve hard decisions. Industries such as coal will disappear and others will emerge. This will bring economic and social change which must be managed sensitively and carefully. </p>
<p>But the long-term benefits of achieving a stable climate far outweigh the short-term disruptions. As our report concludes:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The pathway we choose now will either put us on track for a much brighter future for our children, or lock in escalating risks of dangerous climate change. The decision is ours to make. Failure is not an option.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p><em>Climate Council researcher <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/author/simon-bradshawclimatecouncil-org-au/">Dr Simon Bradshaw</a> contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158913/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Will Steffen is a Councillor with the Climate Council of Australia.</span></em></p>Australia must treble its emissions reduction targets and reach net-zero emissions by 2035. Without this and other radical global action, the chance to hold warming to well below 2°C will pass us by.Will Steffen, Emeritus Professor, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1269232020-02-25T03:55:33Z2020-02-25T03:55:33ZThe last ice age tells us why we need to care about a 2°C change in temperature<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315149/original/file-20200213-41656-1ks4lmk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C2%2C1000%2C663&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The latest report from the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> (IPCC) states that without a substantial decrease in our use of fossil fuels, we are on track for a global average increase of 2°C in the next few decades, with extremes of between <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/">3 to 6°C</a> at higher latitudes. </p>
<p>But 2°C doesn’t really sound like much. Wouldn’t it just mean a few more days of summer barbeques? </p>
<p>While 2°C might seem negligible, the peak of the last ice age was <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/334/6061/1385">characterised by a 2-4 °C drop</a> in global temperatures. This shows just how great an effect this seemingly small change in temperature can have on Earth.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-landmark-report-confirms-australia-is-girt-by-hotter-higher-seas-but-theres-still-time-to-act-124096">A landmark report confirms Australia is girt by hotter, higher seas. But there's still time to act</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The last ice age</h2>
<p>The last ice age occurred primarily as a result of changes in Earth’s orbit, and relationship to the Sun. Coolest conditions <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/325/5941/710">peaked 21,000 years ago</a>. Reductions in atmospheric carbon dioxide and sea surface temperatures reinforced the cooling trend. </p>
<p>Globally, the most significant impact of the ice age was the formation of massive ice sheets at the poles. Ice sheets up to 4km thick blanketed much of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0012825213001190">northern Europe, Canada, northern America and northern Russia</a>. </p>
<p>Today, these ice caps would displace around 250 million people and bury cities such as Detroit, Manchester, Vancouver, Hamburg, and Helsinki.</p>
<p>As water turned to ice, the sea-level dropped to <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-coastal-living-is-at-risk-from-sea-level-rise-but-its-happened-before-87686">125 metres lower than today</a>, exposing vast areas of land. This enlarged continent - 20% larger than Australia today - is known as “Sahul”.</p>
<p>In Australia, many of our major cities would have found themselves inland. Northern Australia joined to Papua New Guinea, Darwin harbour was 300km from the coast and Melburnians could have walked to northern Tasmania. </p>
<p>The Gulf of Carpentaria became a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040618207003692">large, salty inland lake</a>, largely unused by humans. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301443/original/file-20191113-77305-oykt5m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301443/original/file-20191113-77305-oykt5m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301443/original/file-20191113-77305-oykt5m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301443/original/file-20191113-77305-oykt5m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301443/original/file-20191113-77305-oykt5m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301443/original/file-20191113-77305-oykt5m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301443/original/file-20191113-77305-oykt5m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301443/original/file-20191113-77305-oykt5m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The ice age continent of Sahul.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Damian O'Grady, Michael Bird</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The enlarged continent caused climatic changes. Evidence from across much of Australia suggests the ice age was <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379112003435?via%3Dihub">arid and windy</a> - in some respects similar to conditions we have seen in <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-science-of-drought-is-complex-but-the-message-on-climate-change-is-clear-125941">recent times</a> – and extended over approximately 200 human generations (about 6,000 years). </p>
<p>The monsoon, which delivers rainfall across the top third of the continent and into the arid centre, was weakened <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379199000475">or at least moved offshore</a>. The winter westerlies that bring rain across southern Australia also appear to have sat <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0421-7">further south in the Southern Ocean</a>.</p>
<p>With less rainfall, the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379112003435">arid zone was greatly expanded</a>. Today’s semi-arid zones, many of which form an integral part of our agricultural belt, would have turned to desert.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/p_cM1sxTz7s?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A weather report for the last ice age.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The human response</h2>
<p>Archaeological evidence suggests two main responses from Indigenous people in the last ice age. </p>
<p>First, they appear to have retreated into <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305440313002215">smaller “refuges”</a> – key areas with access to fresh water. Today, we’d all have to move to eastern NSW, Victoria, or isolated areas such as Cairns and Karratha, based on archaeological data. </p>
<p>Second, populations dramatically declined, perhaps by as much as <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rspb.2013.0486">60%</a>, as the availability of food and water decreased. This means some of the most adaptable people on the planet could not maintain their population in the face of climate change. </p>
<p>Today that would equate to the loss of 15 million people, or the combined populations of the largest six cities in the country (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Canberra, Perth and Adelaide).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301875/original/file-20191114-26250-grntbc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301875/original/file-20191114-26250-grntbc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301875/original/file-20191114-26250-grntbc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301875/original/file-20191114-26250-grntbc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301875/original/file-20191114-26250-grntbc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301875/original/file-20191114-26250-grntbc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301875/original/file-20191114-26250-grntbc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An increasingly dry inland Australia occurred 21,000 years ago, and is predicted again for the near future.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alan Williams, 2009</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What fate awaits us?</h2>
<p>Current projections, of course, suggest an increase rather than a decrease in planetary temperatures of 2˚C or more. However, in some respects, conditions in Australia later this century are likely to be similar to the last ice age, albeit via different climatic mechanisms.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/media/ccia/2.1.6/cms_page_media/172/MONSOONAL_NORTH_CLUSTER_REPORT_1.pdf">Predictions</a> suggest more frequent occurrence of hot days, as well as hotter days, and increasing variability in rainfall, with heavier falls when they occur. Cyclones may also become more intense across the top end, while increasing evaporation inland will likely see arid zones <a href="https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/media/ccia/2.1.6/cms_page_media/172/MONSOONAL_NORTH_CLUSTER_REPORT_1.pdf">expand</a>. The result may be similar to the last ice age, with increasing dry spells, especially inland. </p>
<p>Changing sea-levels (rising rather than falling) will similarly impact populations along the <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/adaptation/publications/climate-change-risks-australias-coasts">coastal fringe</a>. Predictions of sea-level rise over the next century range from <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/adaptation/publications/climate-change-risks-australias-coasts">19-75cm</a>. This website - <a href="http://coastalrisk.com.au/">coastal risk</a> - shows how sea-level rise will affect various parts of Australia. With 50% of our population <a href="https://www.ga.gov.au/scientific-topics/marine/coasts-estuaries">within 7km of the coast</a> and increasing, sea level changes associated with a global 2˚C warming will impact most Australians. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301896/original/file-20191115-47184-drpnkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301896/original/file-20191115-47184-drpnkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301896/original/file-20191115-47184-drpnkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301896/original/file-20191115-47184-drpnkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301896/original/file-20191115-47184-drpnkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301896/original/file-20191115-47184-drpnkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301896/original/file-20191115-47184-drpnkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Storm damage in the northern beaches of Sydney in 2016. Sea-level rise is expected to affect the coastal fringe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Australian Associated Press</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How should we respond?</h2>
<p>People who survived the last ice age were mobile and well-adapted to arid conditions. Today’s sedentary society, dependent on optimised food production systems, arguably faces a greater challenge. </p>
<p>Our agricultural systems produce higher yields than the earlier food producing systems used by Aboriginal people, but are much more vulnerable to disruption. This is because they are limited in geographic spread (such as the Murray-Darling Basin and Western Australian wheat belt), and located where the impact of climate change will hit hardest.</p>
<p>As a result we’ll likely see <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Costs-of-climate-change-report.pdf">large-scale failure of these systems</a>. As the struggling Murray Darling Basin shows, we may have already exceeded the ability of our continent to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-murray-darling-basin-plan-is-not-delivering-theres-no-more-time-to-waste-91076">supply the water</a> that sustains us and the environment on which we depend. </p>
<p>We should do our utmost to ensure governments meet their commitments to the Paris climate agreement and reduce carbon emissions to zero by 2050. But it would also be prudent for researchers and policymakers to identify modern day refuges in Australia, and plan the long-term sustainability of these regions in the event climate disruption cannot be reversed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126923/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan N Williams works for EMM Consulting Pty Ltd, an Australian based multi-disciplinary environmental company. He is also an associate investigator of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Turney receives funding from the Australian Research Council. Chris is a science advisor for New Zealand cleantech company CarbonScape (<a href="http://www.carbonscape.com">www.carbonscape.com</a>).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Haidee Cadd receives funding from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Shulmeister has received funding from the Australian Research Council, the National Science Foundation (USA) and the Marsden Fund (New Zealand) for projects related to long-term climate change research. He is affiliated with the Australian Research Council Center of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage and the University of Canterbury in New Zealand as well as the University of Queensland. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Bird receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zoë Thomas receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>Perhaps 2°C doesn’t sound like much, but if you look through history, 2°C temperature changes have had huge effects on the planet and people.Alan N Williams, Associate Director/National Technical Leader-Aboriginal Heritage, EMM Consulting Pty Ltd, UNSW SydneyChristian Turney, Professor of Earth Science and Climate Change, Director of the Changing Earth Research Centre and the Chronos 14Carbon-Cycle Facility at UNSW, and Node Director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, UNSW SydneyHaidee Cadd, Research associate, UNSW SydneyJames Shulmeister, Professor, University of CanterburyMichael Bird, JCU Distinguished Professor, ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, James Cook UniversityZoë Thomas, ARC DECRA Fellow, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.