tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/angus-taylor-25685/articlesAngus Taylor – The Conversation2023-05-10T12:44:16Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2054312023-05-10T12:44:16Z2023-05-10T12:44:16ZThe day after the night before - Chalmers and Taylor on the budget<p>Will the budget make inflation worse? Are its boosts to welfare payments just the first step for the Labor government? Could the projected one-off surplus be followed by another one or more? What (if any) of the budget measures will the Coalition oppose? There’s quite a bit about this budget that, as the saying goes, “only time will tell”. </p>
<p>In this podcast, Treasurer Jim Chalmers defends his budget from those economists who claim it will be inflationary, and strongly rejects suggestions it doesn’t have much for middle income Australians struggling with rising mortgage payments. Chalmers also promises that, given the current tight labour market, a priority in coming months will be finding ways to help more of the long-term unemployed into jobs. </p>
<p>Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor lists some of the measures the opposition supports but will not commit on the changes to the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax, despite the sector’s benign attitude to the cautious revamp.</p>
<hr>
<p>E&OE TRANSCRIPT
PODCAST INTERVIEW
THE CONVERSATION
THURSDAY, 11 MAY 2023</p>
<p>SUBJECTS: May Budget, inflation, interest rates, cost of living, NDIS, Petroleum Resource Rent Tax, JobSeeker, welfare increases, stage three tax cuts, surplus, labour market.</p>
<p>MICHELLE GRATTAN, HOST: Jim Chalmers, the economic argument about this Budget has come down to whether it will or will not add to inflation. A number of economists say it will, but you strongly reject that. Can you just take us through briefly your argument about why those economists are wrong.</p>
<p>JIM CHALMERS, TREASURER: Well, first after all there’s a lot of economists who have my view, including the considered advice of the Treasury. And the reason for that is because what we’ve done is we’ve designed the cost-of-living package in particular, to be particularly cognisant of the inflationary pressures in the economy. It’s spread out over four years – not all of the money hits the economy at once. And if you think about the next year, which is the year that the Opposition is focused on, a big chunk of the money we’re spending next year is the funding for the programs which are obviously ongoing but weren’t funded in an ongoing way. There’s also the impact of the small business tax breaks and some other reasons. So, overall, our Budget is designed to take some of the edge off these cost-of-living pressures, not add to the inflationary pressures in the economy, and you can see that in the Treasury’s forecasts.</p>
<p>GRATTAN: So you’re confident that the Reserve Bank will think that you’ve helped it, not hindered it in its push to contain inflation?</p>
<p>CHALMERS: Well, I’m always careful, as you know, Michelle, I don’t want to put words in the Reserve Bank Governor’s mouth in particular, they take their decisions independently. But obviously I wouldn’t be handing down a Budget that made their job more difficult. And in the context of the energy plan, the energy relief payments and some of the other measures in the Budget, we’re going out of our way to make their job easier.</p>
<p>GRATTAN: Now, in the Budget you’ve increased JobSeeker and related payments by a small amount. Do you see this as a first step only in raising these payments? You know you’ll have more advocacy from your inclusion advisory group next year, because that’s an ongoing exercise?</p>
<p>CHALMERS: Two quick things about that, I mean, first of all, having just handed down a Budget with an increase to the base rate of JobSeeker and the associated payments - and I’m not flagging what we might do in 364 days’ time in the next Budget or whenever it is - but the second point I’d make is that as a Labor government – and the Prime Minister makes this point repeatedly – we’re always looking to do what we can to help people, but we do that within the constraints of a really responsible Government and a really responsible Budget. And I think the overwhelming story out of this Budget is the fact that we’ve been able to be responsible and compassionate at the same time.</p>
<p>GRATTAN: Now, of course, we always seem to return to the stage three tax cuts. We’ve had two Budgets now where there’s been pressure, to which the Government hasn’t responded, to refashion those tax cuts. I know you say you’ve got no plans to do this, but can we take this as a never-ever pledge – that they’re definitely here to stay?</p>
<p>CHALMERS: Well, the point that I would make about that, Michelle, is similar to the point I’ve made all the other times I’ve been asked, including at the National Press Club after the Budget – and that is, changing these tax cuts wasn’t even part of our deliberations in this Budget. And our position hasn’t changed. That’s why the Budget doesn’t reflect any change. And they come in in more than a year’s time, but it hasn’t been something that we’ve been contemplating. I get asked from time to time from both directions – people want me to either guarantee it or they want me to say that they we will abolish them. We haven’t changed our position despite all the pressure coming at us from both directions. We think it’s important that you return bracket creep, particularly for people on lower and middle incomes - I said that at the Press Club as well. And we need to remember that these tax cuts kick in 45 grand, and we’ve always supported tax relief for people on modest incomes.</p>
<p>GRATTAN: You’d always have the option of going to an election to promise to do something later, of course.</p>
<p>CHALMERS: I’m not speculating about that. We haven’t changed our position. We’ve got a Budget which has done as much as we can, frankly, for the most vulnerable people, the people on the lowest incomes, and I’m proud of that.</p>
<p>GRATTAN: You’ve been a bit sensitive today when people have pointed out that the Budget doesn’t have anything particularly special for middle-income, mortgage-stressed people. Why do you refute that proposition?</p>
<p>CHALMERS: I don’t feel like I’m especially sensitive about it, but I do think it’s complete and utter rubbish. And the reason I think that is because we’ve been really careful in prioritising the most vulnerable. We haven’t neglected middle Australia. For example, big changes to bulk billing, a centrepiece of the Budget. A lot of people with kids under 16 will benefit from that right up and down the income scale. Cheaper early childhood education. We’ve actually copped a lot of flak for being too kind to middle Australia in our early childhood policies. They kick in on the 1st of July. Energy efficiency measures, the training package, the home guarantee, there’s a whole bunch – there are a whole bunch of policies in the Budget for middle Australia. It’s just that the focus of a lot of the commentary has been what we’re doing for the most vulnerable people. That’s a good thing from my point of view, we are doing what we can there but that doesn’t mean we’re neglecting middle Australia.</p>
<p>GRATTAN: The Budget forecasts some $15 billion in savings from the National Disability Insurance Scheme. That’s a big amount of money. What will be involved, and do you think people on the scheme will be alarmed, because this is a particularly delicate area for obvious reasons?</p>
<p>CHALMERS: Look, it is. I acknowledge that. And that’s why both in the Budget speech and in the speech the following day I’ve gone out of my way to say that our objective here – our number one objective – is to make sure that people are getting the care that they need and deserve and that was intended when we designed the scheme in the first place. But we need to get a handle on some of these increasing costs in the system. And Bill Shorten has been doing a terrific job working with the NDIA and the sector and others, and Anthony Albanese with the state and territory leaders to try and moderate the growth in the program, not because we want to cut it for its own sake but because we want to make sure we’re getting value for money for people who need it and rely on it.</p>
<p>GRATTAN: But you’re pointing to these savings, and that inquiry into the scheme hasn’t even reported – won’t report for a few months yet.</p>
<p>CHALMERS: But, I mean, as you would appreciate from – you know, you would have seen some of these processes before, there’s often kind of iterations, there’s often engagement with the review panel as it continues its work. And what we saw – what we would have seen in the Budget is about a $17 billion increase in the cost of the NDIS. There’s about $15 billion of savings that were able to be found to moderate that growth.</p>
<p>GRATTAN: That’s pretty huge.</p>
<p>CHALMERS: Well, I think it shows –</p>
<p>GRATTAN: 15 out of 17.</p>
<p>CHALMERS: Well, I think it shows that if you put the effort into it, making sure that every dollar goes to the people who need it in the scheme, you can make the scheme more sustainable. You can put it on a more sustainable footing. That’s what I want to see, because I believe in the NDIS. I want it to be here to stay, and in order for it to be here to stay we’ve got to moderate some of these costs.</p>
<p>GRATTAN: As Treasurer you give the impression that you’ve been much influenced by working for a Treasurer. And as a staffer, of course, you went through the Labor Government’s trauma with its resources tax. In undertaking changes announced in this Budget to the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax, you treated the sector really very much with kid gloves. You’ve engaged with that industry. How much were you influenced by your own experience before?</p>
<p>CHALMERS: I think everybody is in one way or another. I like to think that I’ve got my eyes forward in the job that I want to do and not trying to –</p>
<p>GRATTAN: But you’ve got a few scars from the past.</p>
<p>CHALMERS: I think everyone does, from their own experiences. I don’t want to pretend that I haven’t learned a lot in that pretty remarkable apprenticeship that I was fortunate to have. I mean, nobody’s come to this job –</p>
<p>GRATTAN: Don’t mention tax inquiry.</p>
<p>CHALMERS: Well, nobody’s come to this job with the kind of apprenticeship that I had for it, and I’m grateful for that. And most days I reflect on something I’ve learned, as people would in all walks of life in their work. But I try and look forward. I want to make my time in this job really count, and one of the things that I’m pleased about in extracting $2.4 billion of extra tax sooner out of offshore LNG projects -yes I went about it in a consultative way, that’s the tone that Anthony Albanese sets for his Government. That’s his expectations of us. If you can get a good outcome from working with people rather than against them, then I would have thought the onus is on all of us in all of our portfolios to try.</p>
<p>GRATTAN: Now, you’re celebrating a surplus for this financial year, although there are a couple of months to go.</p>
<p>CHALMERS: You won’t be seeing any Back in Black mugs or anything from me, Michelle, or any self-congratulation. There’s good reasons to be cautious.</p>
<p>GRATTAN: Just fingers crossed. But the Budget then projects deficits in the later years. But I’m just wondering whether there might be, not a trick here, but some optimism that’s not reflected in those figures – in other words, is it not possible, certainly next financial year, that with the savings, with the stream of revenue that’s still to come you could, in fact, get a surplus next financial year?</p>
<p>CHALMERS: Well, I’m not prepared to pre-empt that, and I don’t want to get ahead of ourselves. And I think there are genuinely good reasons to be cautious and careful and conservative, including, the history of my immediate predecessor that I just joked about. There is no point over promising and under delivering here. I’d rather avoid that.</p>
<p>GRATTAN: But you might over-deliver after the under-promising?</p>
<p>CHALMERS: Well, it remains to be seen what happens with the labour market, what happens with commodity prices and a range of other influences on the Budget. But I think there’s a good reason to be cautious and conservative, and that’s what I’m being.</p>
<p>GRATTAN: Now, I just want to finish on the labour market, and something that I asked you earlier at the Press Club, because I think it’s important and something our listeners would be interested in. The Budget does not focus much attention, even with this tight labour market, on getting the long-term unemployed into jobs. What priority are you giving this? What more can you do about it? And what’s your thinking ahead?</p>
<p>CHALMERS: Yeah, very important priority; very, very high on our list. And one of the reasons I’m so proud of the place-based initiatives for communities where we’ve had entrenched disadvantage and intergenerational long-term unemployment is we need to think differently about the communities, frankly, like the one I grew up in and the one that I represent now.</p>
<p>GRATTAN: Just explain that place-based community program.</p>
<p>CHALMERS: So there are programs around Australia which find the communities with a lot of disadvantage and they try and apply a hyperlocal approach with great local leaders backed by the Commonwealth Government to try and break the cycle of intergenerational disadvantage. And it involves the philanthropic sector, it involves all of the community organisations, support from all three levels of government. And what I’ve seen in my own community, a program called Logan Together and a guy called Matthew Cox, who’s been central to all my thinking on this, is if we get a good model and we can apply it to other communities like Logan around Australia, we give ourselves a chance of breaking this cycle so that we have fewer long-term unemployed people. And so we intervene early in people’s lives and all of these sorts of things that are really important. So that’s part of the thinking. You’ve asked me before about employment services. That’s important too. Surely we can do better there. I mean, surely. And so we’ve got an Employment White Paper. My colleague Julian Hill and others are doing a heap of work at the committee level to see if we can do that better. Tony Burke is in charge of that as the Employment Minister, and so I’d happily work very closely with him to see if we can make improvements there. But I think the overall objective is really important. When we’ve got unemployment three and a half per cent, even if it gets to four and a half per cent on the Budget forecasts, we need to do a much better job of actually hooking people up with the opportunities of a growing job-creating economy. Employment services, the Employment White Paper, the place’s based programs, the participation agenda we have around early childhood education, all of these things are important. We’ve done a heap of work, but there will be more to do.</p>
<p>GRATTAN: Jim Chalmers, thanks very much for talking with us today.</p>
<p>CHALMERS: Thanks for the opportunity, Michelle.</p>
<p>ENDS</p>
<hr>
<p>TRANSCRIPT
INTERVIEW WITH MICHELLE GRATTAN,
THE CONVERSATION
Wednesday 10th May 2023
Topics: Budget 2023
E&OE </p>
<p>MICHELLE GRATTAN: Angus Taylor, you’ve condemned this as a high taxing, high spending Labor budget, to what degree and where should the taxing and spending have been lower?</p>
<p>ANGUS TAYLOR: Well, can we start with the facts because it’s very important to understand the baseline here. Labor’s added $185 billion of spending since they got into government and crucially, in the new initiatives they’re pursuing. There’s $2 of spending for every dollar of revenue. And so, at a time when we need a budget that’s responsible to take pressure off inflation, that’s not what’s needed. Now, there’s many areas where we’ve already outlined our view, that spending is not appropriate at the moment. $45 billion of spending we’ve opposed in the Parliament in recent months, about $18 billion of interest cost attached to that. We do think that adding over 10,000 new public servants at the moment is not the right answer, particularly at a time when we do need to put this downward pressure on inflation. Outside of national security and frontline services there’s real questions about whether that is needed. </p>
<p>MICHELLE GRATTON: Well, what about the welfare spending, though? You’re saying there should be less of that, those initiatives?</p>
<p>ANGUS TAYLOR: Well, we’ll work through all of these, and we have our own processes as you know.</p>
<p>MICHELLE GRATTON: Sure, but they’re pretty obvious. </p>
<p>ANGUS TAYLOR: Well, no, because you’ve got to go through your process and make decisions as a Shadow Cabinet and I always respect that process and we should, you know, that’s how these things work. What I would say in general, as a matter of principle right now is that what really is needed is dealing with inflation at the source, not dealing with it through the symptoms. There’s no point putting a band aid on a bullet wound, you’ve got to go to the source and a budget that puts downward pressure on inflation is good for all Australians. Everybody is better off including the most vulnerable, you don’t have to pick and choose. We all benefit from the prices of the goods and services we buy being lower than they otherwise would be. </p>
<p>MICHELLE GRATTAN: But even taking that point, nevertheless, we’re in a situation where the very vulnerable people on JobSeeker and so on are needing more money, needing more assistance. Are you saying that was inappropriate? </p>
<p>ANGUS TAYLOR: I’m saying that the risk with this strategy is that you give with one hand and take away more with the other and we are seeing, we’ve got stagnant real wages in this election cycle over three years. They’re not growing, and that’s in the Budget papers. It’s very clear.</p>
<p>MICHELLE GRATTAN: But they are starting to grow over this next year.</p>
<p>ANGUS TAYLOR: In this election cycle, under Labor’s government real wages are flat. Over the three years and you know, this is real pain that’s being felt. There’ll be people listening to this out there now who feel substantially worse off than they were a year ago. And the truth is, if you’re a family with a mortgage right now, a typical family will be $25,000 a year worse off than they were a year ago. That is that is what inflationary pressures and interest rate pressures do to people’s standard of living. And the key here is to go to the source with a budget that is good for all Australians. You don’t need to discriminate. Everyone is better off. If you can take pressure off inflation. That should have been the focus of this budget, and it wasn’t.</p>
<p>MICHELLE GRATTAN: Now let’s go to this question of inflation and dig down. Jim Chalmers claims that the budget won’t put pressure on inflation. The Opposition says it will. What is your evidence? What is your argument that it will be inflationary?</p>
<p>ANGUS TAYLOR: Well, a couple of things I’d say, first is you’ve got two independent economists saying it will be inflationary people like Chris Richardson and Stephen Hamilton, have all made this point. Chris Richardson was very strong last night straight out of the box, saying that this will be inflationary.</p>
<p>MICHELLE GRATTAN: He’s had a bit of a clip around the ear from the Prime Minister.</p>
<p>ANGUS TAYLOR: Well, I mean, you know that’s how Labor works. If someone says something that Labor doesn’t like, they clip people around the year. That’s unfortunate, but the truth is, he is speaking out because if you have $185 billion of new spending since, they got into government, $2 of spending initiatives versus every dollar of revenue initiative, that is expansionary. Now, right now, we don’t need that. I mean, we know historically, if you want to deal with inflation, you’ve got to see fiscal consolidation. We also know the best kind of fiscal consolidation is to make sure your economy grows faster than you spend. We confronted this in the past. If you don’t have that you end up where we ended up in the 70s and 80s where central banks have to do all the work and the pain is enormous, Michelle, we, many of us, certainly my age and older remember that only too well and that’s not where we want to be in the coming months and years.</p>
<p>MICHELLE GRATTAN: So, do you think that this budget will push up interest rates?</p>
<p>ANGUS TAYLOR: I’m not going to make a forecast on interest rates. I mean, the Treasurer loves to make forecasts. Lots of people have been trying to forecast inflation and interest rates and frankly, they’ve largely been wrong. We saw, even last week, the Reserve Bank raised interest rates, the pundits, the capital markets, they all had it wrong. Economists had it wrong. So, the truth of the matter is the inflationary pressures have been stronger than has been predicted, substantially stronger than has been predicted and that’s why now it’s incumbent on the Government to take that risk away, to take those pressures off every Australian. There was an opportunity here to unite Australians behind the one thing that is hurting all of us. There was an opportunity to do that. They’ve missed that opportunity and I think both in terms of what’s right for Australia and politically frankly, there’s been a real opportunity missed, and it’s incredibly disappointing.</p>
<p>MICHELLE GRATTAN: But when you say there was an opportunity, what positively should have been done?</p>
<p>ANGUS TAYLOR: Well, I’ve already said a number of things, but I’ll add to that. The first and most striking thing of all, when you read the Budget papers is one of the first things I look to. So, when you look at the fiscal strategy, there is no commitment to budget balance in this fiscal strategy. Now since the charter of budget honesty was put in place in the 1990’s under Peter Costello, there has always been a commitment to budget balance. It’s gone. And the reason is…</p>
<p>MICHELLE GRATTAN: Well, we’ve got it now though. </p>
<p>ANGUS TAYLOR: Well, hang on, for a year after an $80 billion windfall, when as I think I’ve said to you before, we had a budget coming out of the pandemic through to the May election that was already in balance, but from here on in the Treasury is taking it over a cliff, going out to an over $36 billion deficit. That’s not expansionary, that’s inflationary. If you take a budget that’s in balance, and then you turn it into a big deficit. It’s pretty it’s pretty straightforward. I don’t know how you can argue that that’s not expansionary.</p>
<p>MICHELLE GRATTAN: Isn’t it possible, though – and we’ve seen changes over forward estimates, incredibly, over recent years – isn’t it possible that the deficit that’s forecast could be reined in a lot with spending cuts, for example to the NDIS? </p>
<p>ANGUS TAYLOR: Look I don’t know. Look I read the budget and I assume that’s the Government’s plan. I don’t have any other plan to work on Michelle. So that is their plan. That’s what they put out. They just put out all the details and I think that’s what we’ve got to assume that their plan is right now. Now if they plan, more spending and more taxes, they should tell us.</p>
<p>MICHELLE GRATTAN: Now, I heard you say last night that the Opposition supported the energy price help and had done so all along. But in fact, you opposed the legislation that was part of that.</p>
<p>ANGUS TAYLOR: Oh, well, you know, Labor plays tricky games with these things. They put and they’re doing this time and time again. They put two pieces of legislation together. One they know we can’t support, and one they know we do support and they put us in those positions. We support that energy price relief. I’ll tell you why, Labor promised a $275 reduction in electricity bills. We now know from these Budget papers, that for a typical Australian family, there’s going to be a $500 energy price increase even after that relief. So, they’ve completely failed in their promise. Australians worked on the assumption that the promise was going to be kept. It hasn’t been kept. They deserve better than that. And that’s why unfortunately, and we do it with regret because it’s not this is not where we want it to be, but the truth of the matter is Australians deserved better than that, and Labor’s had to deal with it.</p>
<p>MICHELLE GRATTAN: Now you’ve seen the details of the changes to the petroleum resource rent tax. Are you going to support that?</p>
<p>ANGUS TAYLOR: We haven’t seen the details? That’s not right. We’ve seen a top line number and the thing about resource rent taxes, and we learnt this with the mining tax, is they are incredibly complex? </p>
<p>MICHELLE GRATTAN: Well, the industry supports them.</p>
<p>ANGUS TAYLOR: Well hang on. We are interested in what’s right for Australia and Australians. I hear a lot of commentators who wouldn’t normally say that the mining industry should be supported in whatever they say or the resources industry. We will make a judgement on this as we always do on what’s right for Australia. Again, I have to say if you want the price of something to go down, you don’t normally hit it with a tax. That being said, we will work through this carefully. I saw the mining resource rent tax way back in the in the last Labor government completely fail. Jim Chalmers was in Wayne Swans office at the time, it was a dog’s breakfast, a complete disaster. They are very complex taxes and are they going down? Is this going to be a bad tax? I don’t know. You’ve got to get into the detail. We’ll no doubt, we’ll get briefings on this over the coming weeks.</p>
<p>MICHELLE GRATTAN: Like you, I remember that big tax, and the big difference is that the mining industry opposed it very, very strongly. This time the industry is going along with it.</p>
<p>ANGUS TAYLOR: Well, a couple of things. Just because the mining industry supports something, doesn’t mean it’s right. And I think all people should understand that. We’re interested in what’s right for Australia and Australians and for energy prices for Australians in particular. So that’s got to be the test. As you know from that last mining tax, actually, the final version, the mining industry did support it, but it was a complete dog’s breakfast and we got rid of it because of that. It wasn’t helping. It was deterring investment, because it was sending the wrong signal to investors. So, it was a bad tax, and it was abolished as a result, but we’ll look at this one with all its complexity, and we’ll make a judgment about whether it’s good for Australia and Australians.</p>
<p>MICHELLE GRATTAN: Just finally, and I know you say you work through the whole budget but is there anything now that the Opposition will fight, will resist in Parliament?</p>
<p>ANGUS TAYLOR: Can I start by saying the things we’re going to support. There are some things in this budget we are going to support. So, we do support the instant asset write off, it’s only $20,000, but that’s important for small businesses. We do support the initiative on women’s safety. We think that’s really positive. The veteran’s payments, and the extension of the work bonus for pensioners. I think these are important initiatives. We proposed that sometime back, it’s not the full version of it, we’d prefer more, but it’s something for an extra six months and that will encourage pensioners into the workforce, and we like that. We’ll work our way through all the other initiatives. We have to say making government bigger in Canberra. It’s not necessarily the answer right now, particularly with these inflationary pressures at work, whether there’s any legislation on that probably not but there’s some initiatives around bigger government that we were concerned about, and we’ll work our way through that.</p>
<p>MICHELLE GRATTAN: Well talking about bigger government, just to finish off, what about the extra staff for politicians?</p>
<p>ANGUS TAYLOR: Well, it’s good question. So, the first thing I’ll say about it, is we’re pleased that there’s no budget for extra politicians in the budget. And whilst Albanese has been talking about more politicians, as you will remember a few weeks back he was saying maybe we need more politicians. We don’t agree with that. </p>
<p>MICHELLE GRATTAN: But what about the staff?</p>
<p>ANGUS TAYLOR: The staff issue, again we’ll work our way through that. It’s far more modest, I have to say, than more politicians…</p>
<p>MICHELLE GRATTAN: I’d be very surprised if you end up saying no.</p>
<p>ANGUS TAYLOR: Well, Michelle, I mean every penny has to be scrutinized right now because every penny risks raising inflation for Australians, and that’s why we’re taking a very principled approach to this. </p>
<p>MICHELLE GRATTAN: Angus Taylor, thank you very much for talking with us. </p>
<p>ANGUS TAYLOR: Thanks Michelle.</p>
<p>ENDS</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205431/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In this podcast, @michellegrattan canvasses the budget with Treasurer @JEChalmers, Shadow Treasurer @AngusTaylorMP and The Conversation's politics + society editor @amandadunn10Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2041932023-04-20T10:32:03Z2023-04-20T10:32:03ZGrattan on Friday: The government invited ambit claims for the budget and now it will be judged against them<p>Budgets are for stakeholders and interest groups like Christmas is for kids. They’re preceded by a multitude of letters to “Santa”, aka the treasurer, in the run-up. </p>
<p>For the May 9 budget, two key correspondents were appointed by the government itself. This week, the wish lists from the Economic Inclusion Advisory Committee and the Women’s Economic Equality Taskforce were released. </p>
<p>The inclusion committee, an ongoing body to review the adequacy of welfare support, was born out of a demand to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese from Senate crossbencher David Pocock last year, in exchange for his vote on the government’s industrial relations legislation. </p>
<p>It was always clear the committee would confront the government with more demands than could be met, and that would become a political challenge. </p>
<p>The taskforce, chaired by businesswoman and gender equity advocate Sam Mostyn, was set up to reflect the government’s desire to underline its policy tilt towards women. </p>
<p>Managing expectations before a budget is always tricky, and these committees are making this especially so for Treasurer Jim Chalmers ahead of his second budget. </p>
<p>The message from Chalmers is that funds are limited and the government can’t do all it might like to do (let alone all that others might want it to do). </p>
<p>Indeed, Chalmers is trying to find ways to constrain spending – to allow maximum room for budget repair – rather than expand it. </p>
<p>The Minister for the National Disability Insurance Scheme, Bill Shorten, this week outlined areas for reform of the NDIS to get it “back on track”. While Shorten stresses this is about improving outcomes, everyone in government knows the NDIS’s costs must be contained or the scheme will be totally unsustainable. </p>
<p>On Treasury figures, the inclusion report’s recommendations would cost more than $34 billion over the forward estimates.</p>
<p>The government has indicated it expects to adopt some of the proposals. But it has already shied away from the biggest one: a large increase in JobSeeker, which the report says should be taken to some 90% of the age pension (at a cost of $24 billion over the forward estimates). </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/boosting-jobseeker-is-the-most-effective-way-to-tackle-poverty-what-the-treasurers-committee-told-him-204045">Boosting JobSeeker is the most effective way to tackle poverty: what the treasurer's committee told him</a>
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<p>That would restore the relativity of the mid-1990s. At present, the rate for singles is about 65% of the age pension.</p>
<p>Among the things on the “urgent” list of the women’s taskforce are reinstatement of the parenting payment (single) for women with children aged over eight, abolition of the childcare subsidy activity test, and investment in “an interim pay rise for all early childhood educators”. </p>
<p>Despite the government ruling out the “large” increase in JobSeeker, it is still possible the budget could make some change to it, among other pickings from the inclusion report. </p>
<p>Similarly, the government could take up the reinstatement of the parenting payment (single), for which there is considerable pressure. </p>
<p>The inclusion committee is chaired by former Labor minister Jenny Macklin, who has an extensive background in welfare policy, and includes substantial expertise among its members. Its report contains a plethora of detail and it is closely argued. </p>
<p>The report’s lens is squarely focused on issues of adequacy and poverty. While it says its JobSeeker recommendation would not be a significant discouragement to seeking paid work (and the current low rate is a barrier to doing so), some believe the recommended big lift would indeed create a disincentive in our present full employment labour market. </p>
<p>Many people, especially in Labor’s base, will see this report as a benchmark for what a Labor government should do to promote fairness for those at the bottom and create a more equitable society. The same applies with the women’s taskforce measures.</p>
<p>In that sense, the budget must inevitably fall short of the tests these reports pose for it. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-chalmers-grapples-with-a-budget-where-economics-and-politics-pull-in-different-directions-203759">Grattan on Friday: Chalmers grapples with a budget where economics and politics pull in different directions</a>
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<p>Commentators have already suggested a parallel, of sorts, between the proposed Indigenous Voice to Parliament and the inclusion committee. The comparison is a very long stretch, but in each case, special access is involved but the government isn’t bound by recommendations. </p>
<p>What we are seeing with the inclusion committee (and indeed the women’s taskforce) is that the demands may shape the public conversation. The same would apply with the Voice. </p>
<p>How the government responds to the inclusion committee in particular could affect its future relations with the Senate crossbench. Pocock is already out in the media rejecting the government’s arguments that it is constrained by a lack of resources. What about those $250 billion stage 3 tax cuts? he asks. (The government has said they won’t be touched in this budget.) </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-david-pocock-has-only-just-arrived-in-the-senate-and-now-hes-negotiating-with-the-pm-195295">Grattan on Friday: David Pocock has only just arrived in the Senate and now he's negotiating with the PM</a>
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<p>The way Pocock and other key crossbenchers react post-budget will depend on precisely what’s taken up. Pocock will be able to claim a victory if he can say his demand for the committee made a difference. </p>
<p>While the budget is a major juggling act for Chalmers, his reform of the Reserve Bank is shaping up, in political terms, as an easier task. </p>
<p>The changes in the report from the review panel, released on Thursday and accepted in principle by the government, are extensive. These include setting up an expert board that would decide monetary policy, which would be separate from the bank’s general board. The aim is to improve the decision-making of the bank, which has come under sharp criticism in the wake of its recent performance on interest rates. </p>
<p>Some of the changes will require legislation, for which Chalmers has been very anxious to get a bipartisan approach. He doesn’t want to have to haggle with the Senate crossbenchers, cutting deals and finding trade-offs, in this sensitive area. </p>
<p>So he has engaged the shadow treasurer, Angus Taylor, during the review process. Taylor has been briefed along the way and was given an advance copy of the report. </p>
<p>The strategy appears to have paid off. Taylor was positive about the review’s plan for a board of experts, and said: “It is the Coalition’s intention to continue to approach the implementation of this review with a spirit of bipartisanship.”</p>
<p>It’s a rare and welcome move away from the opposition’s usual hyper-negativity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204193/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Managing expectations before a budget is always tricky. Two committees are making this especially so for Treasurer Jim Chalmers ahead of his second budget.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2041222023-04-19T12:30:45Z2023-04-19T12:30:45ZReserve Bank to have two boards after overhaul by inquiry<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521853/original/file-20230419-24-45gyai.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=45%2C281%2C1756%2C824&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The long-awaited independent review of the Reserve Bank commissioned by Treasurer Jim Chalmers will be released on Thursday, with the treasurer already flagging in-principle agreement with all its recommendations. </p>
<p>These include separating decisions about monetary policy from other decisions by establishing a separate Monetary Policy Board and Governance Board, with the aim of making both decision-making and governance arrangements as effective as possible.</p>
<p>Asked to examine the continued appropriateness of the Reserve Bank’s inflation targeting framework, the review has apparently offered endorsement, with the treasurer expected to say on Thursday he reaffirms the government’s commitment to both the independence of the Reserve Bank and its inflation-targeting framework.</p>
<p>Titled “<a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/media-releases/review-reserve-bank">An RBA fit for the future</a>”, the report makes 51 recommendations under 14 broader headings. </p>
<p>The review has been carried out by Carolyn Wilkins, an international expert on monetary policy, Renée McKibbin, a professor of economics at Australian National University, and Gordon de Brouwer, Secretary for Public Sector Reform.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-rbas-failure-to-cut-rates-faster-may-have-cost-270-000-jobs-185381">The RBA's failure to cut rates faster may have cost 270,000 jobs</a>
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<p>Among the issues the review has considered are how to improve its approach to monetary policy, the bank’s decision-making, its performance against its objectives, how well it explains its decisions, and the composition of its board.</p>
<p>Chalmers will announce on Thursday two new RBA board members, to replace retiring members Wendy Craik and Mark Barnaba. </p>
<p>Some of the review’s recommendations will be implemented by the bank itself.</p>
<p>Others will need legislation, work with the Council of Financial Regulators, or agreement on a new <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/framework/stmt-conduct-mp-7-2016-09-19.html">Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy</a> to be signed by Chalmers on behalf of the government and Governor Philip Lowe on behalf of the Reserve Bank board.</p>
<p>Chalmers has stressed the need for bipartisan support for the changes, given the bank’s independence and its importance in Australia’s economic policy-making.</p>
<p>He has discussed the report with Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor, and provided him with an advance copy. Taylor had briefings from the panel during its inquiry. </p>
<p>Chalmers this week praised Taylor for the way he had engaged with the review. </p>
<p>Arguing for bipartisanship, Chalmers told a news conference on Monday:</p>
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<p>We don’t really want to run the gauntlet in the Senate, for example, on legislative change to the RBA Act. The RBA Act should be something that we can agree on and put beyond politics.</p>
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<p>The review panel received more than 1500 contributions through interviews, submissions, focus groups and survey responses. </p>
<p>It consulted 137 global and domestic experts, including current and former RBA board and staff members, parliamentarians and academics. It also consulted representatives of business, unions, public institutions and community groups. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-rba-is-not-a-law-unto-itself-an-external-review-would-do-it-good-165816">The RBA is not a law unto itself — an external review would do it good</a>
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<p>The bank and Lowe in particular have come under criticism as rates have risen. </p>
<p>Lowe has been under fire for indicating the cash rate would likely not increase before 2024, which influenced the decisions of some house buyers. </p>
<p>Lowe’s term expires in September.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204122/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>These include the establishment of a separate Monetary Policy Board and Governance Board, aimed at making both decision-making and governance arrangements as effective as possibleMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2029542023-03-30T09:08:34Z2023-03-30T09:08:34ZGrattan on Friday: We need more tax revenue, but don’t ask the major parties how we’ll get it<p>Teal candidates again fell short in the NSW election. Only one who was so labelled was successful, and she rejects the terminology. This followed the Victorian state election in which no teal won. </p>
<p>Inevitably, the two state polls raise the question of whether the teal phenomenon, which saw six win federally last May, was such a product of special circumstances that the balloon might now have burst. </p>
<p>The story is likely to be more complicated. </p>
<p>The federal teals’ campaigns were awash with money – different laws at state level limited resources available to them, even though Climate 200 continued to help. In NSW, optional preferential voting also worked against them. </p>
<p>The specific issues driving the federal teals’ wins (climate change, integrity, women’s equality) were particularly intense in 2022, and the anti-Morrison factor was huge. </p>
<p>When the federal teals seek re-election, there will be no Morrison factor.
But the benefits of incumbency will work for them, as will the general and continued disillusionment with the major parties, which means many voters are looking favourably on independent alternatives. </p>
<p>While the changed electoral scene in 2025 (compared to 2022) could make it harder for new teal candidates to win, so might an overhaul of the electoral funding regime. </p>
<p>If, for example, Labor decided to cap candidates’ spending, which would be desirable to stop the financial arms race we now see in elections, that would harm teal candidates struggling for name recognition. On the other hand, given the teal movement, directed at Liberal seats, has benefited Labor, the federal government might keep its changes modest. </p>
<p>The federal teals, although they liaise and collaborate, are not one bloc, and their parliamentary votes have shown they are ideologically diverse. Labor’s lower house majority has meant they do not, to their disappointment, hold the balance of power there. </p>
<p>But they are proving adept at using the forums provided by parliament, making a contrast with many backbenchers from the major parties who, although they might do admirable work in their electorates and sometimes on committees, give the impression of being just numbers in their respective parties. Serious policy discussions in the Labor caucus or the Coalition party room are rare.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/former-treasury-head-ken-henry-says-we-need-big-bang-tax-reform-rather-than-incremental-change-201962">Former treasury head Ken Henry says we need 'big bang' tax reform rather than incremental change</a>
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<p>The backbenchers in the government and opposition are at their worst in the House of Representatives question time, which continues to be as uninformative as ever. </p>
<p>This government (like its predecessor) uses question time to parade what it is doing, with endless so-called Dorothy Dixers, which must be embarrassing to ask. Apart from questions on the Voice, the opposition asks variations on a common range of questions about cost of living, energy prices and the like, often with a slogan attached – “why do Australian families always pay more under Labor?” </p>
<p>The Coalition questions are predictable and repetitive so the prime minister and practised senior ministers have little trouble batting them away. In the last parliament, question time was frequently painful for the Morrison government; in this parliament, it is seldom difficult for the Albanese government.</p>
<p>Rarely does the opposition produce anything from its own independent research with which to surprise a potentially vulnerable minister. Nor does it effectively use question time to extract information. </p>
<p>Crossbenchers (not just teals) do seriously probe for information and sometimes test ministers. </p>
<p>Question time is frustrating, when you think what it could be. But a much more important fault in current federal politics is this: despite the general recognition that big economic reforms are needed, neither government nor opposition dares go there. </p>
<p>Taxation is the standout example. Over the coming years, total tax will have to increase if we continue to want the services from government we are demanding.</p>
<p>Some 59 leading economists were asked, in a <a href="https://theconversation.com/inheritance-taxes-resource-taxes-and-an-attack-on-negative-gearing-how-top-economists-would-raise-20-billion-per-year-202630">survey</a> by the Economic Society of Australia and The Conversation, for ways to find an extra $20 billion a year. They nominated new or increased land taxes, increased resources tax, winding back negative gearing, and broadening the GST as their top four options. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-trimming-the-tail-of-the-superannuation-tax-tiger-is-no-easy-task-200996">Grattan on Friday: Trimming the tail of the superannuation tax tiger is no easy task</a>
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<p>The Albanese government is hamstrung by its election promise to not increase taxes (apart from cracking down on multi-nationals’ tax avoidance). That’s for this term, but its narrow majority is likely to make Labor wary at the next election of bold tax reform promises. </p>
<p>One way of tackling the issue would be to have a comprehensive inquiry into the tax system, but treasurer Jim Chalmers has made it clear he doesn’t want one. Chalmers was a staffer to then treasurer Wayne Swan when the Henry tax inquiry was held and is seared by the experience – the aftermath didn’t go well for Labor. </p>
<p>Nor can we expect the opposition to lead the way on tax. The risks of being a big target are obvious. John Howard, having lived through the disaster of the Coalition under John Hewson offering major reform with its “Fightback” program at the 1993 election, pledged before the 1996 election “never ever” to introduce a GST, only to reverse that after he won government (and nearly lost the subsequent election). </p>
<p>Small target is today’s fashion, the road to power for Anthony Albanese and Chris Minns.</p>
<p>Teal crossbencher Allegra Spender is free of responsibility for a party, although she does have an eye on what the constituents in her Sydney electorate of Wentworth want her to do. She judges them open to a policy discussion about tax. </p>
<p>Spender on Friday hosts a roundtable on the tax system, to which she has attracted a who’s who of experts, including former treasury secretary Ken Henry (of THAT review) and Grattan Institute executive director Danielle Wood. </p>
<p>In her speech to the roundtable, Wood will say: “Australia’s tax system is failing us as a nation. It fails us because it cannot deliver the revenue we need to fund the services we expect. Australia has a revenue problem. Without policy change, we only have two solutions: let budget deficits grow ever larger, or continue to push up taxes on labour income.</p>
<p>"This is uncharted territory for tax reform: we need changes to the system that both boost revenue and improve the efficiency of tax collections. There is simply no opportunity to ‘buy reform’ through overly generous compensation packages – we need to raise more and we need to raise it smarter.”</p>
<p>At least roundtables like Spender’s provide an airing for initiatives that we should be considering. It’s just unfortunate the leading politicians in the major parties are not the ones giving them ventilation, let alone support.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202954/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The government is hamstrung by its election promise to not raise taxes or bring in new ones. That’s for this term, but its narrow majority is likely to make Labor wary at the next election of bold tax reform promises.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2014632023-03-09T09:29:49Z2023-03-09T09:29:49ZGrattan on Friday: Could Josh Frydenberg still have a path to the Liberal leadership?<p>One of those closely watching the extraordinary legal face-off between independent Monique Ryan and her former high-profile staffer, Sally Rugg, will be Josh Frydenberg, who lost Kooyong to the “teal” at last year’s election. </p>
<p>The outcome of the case, going to whether Rugg was forced to work unreasonable hours, could have significant ramifications for parliamentary staffs’ conditions. </p>
<p>But Frydenberg will be focused on whether the fight takes paint off Ryan. </p>
<p>Now in the private sector, Frydenberg hasn’t declared whether he will run again for Kooyong, but he hasn’t lost his political ambition. </p>
<p>He didn’t put his hand up for the Aston byelection, but then insiders didn’t expect him to. He’s concentrated on Kooyong – anyway the Liberals needed a woman in Aston. </p>
<p>If Frydenberg could regain his seat and Peter Dutton lost the 2025 election, one scenario for the Liberals would be for Frydenberg to take over the leadership and position the party to be competitive for the 2028 poll. </p>
<p>There are a lot of “ifs” involved, not least the 2025 result in Kooyong. Its boundaries will be affected by a redistribution. Ryan has another two years to dig in, and independents can be hard to dislodge. </p>
<p>Still, the teals were elected in very special circumstances, helped by the acute unpopularity of Scott Morrison, and some could be vulnerable next time. Ryan might be one of those. </p>
<p>Frydenberg would benefit if the economy were central at the election. But he’d need to make a decision on contesting relatively early, and run a savvier campaign than last time, when he unwisely derided his opponent as a “fake” independent. </p>
<p>There are those who cast doubt on how well Frydenberg would do as leader. Critics argue it’s hard to know what he stands for and that he wants to be popular with everyone. On the other hand, as a former treasurer and former energy minister, he has a wealth of front-line experience. </p>
<p>Frydenberg started out with the label of a conservative, but became more centrist. In 2018 he won the Liberal deputyship overwhelmingly. He carries baggage from the Morrison years, including what some saw as excessive loyalty to the then PM (he was also loyal to PMs Abbott and Turnbull). </p>
<p>Whatever his limitations, however, a Liberal party defeated in 2025 wouldn’t be replete with leadership talent.</p>
<p>Speculation about the significance of a Frydenberg return carries with it the assumption Dutton is doomed to failure. Caveats are required. I recalled being sceptical when Tony Abbott was elected leader. Then he nearly won his first election, and cleaned up at his second. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/word-from-the-hill-another-rate-rise-support-for-super-tax-hike-pms-india-trip-rugg-v-ryan-201300">Word from The Hill: Another rate rise; support for super tax hike; PM's India trip; Rugg V Ryan</a>
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<p>That said, it would be difficult at present to find anyone who’d put any money on Dutton. </p>
<p>Meanwhile he and his party are struggling for a strategy. </p>
<p>Dutton is, on a range of issues, adopting the “just say no” approach. The Liberals are opposing the legislation for implementing the government’s emissions reduction target (the safeguard bill), and bills for the national reconstruction fund (a kick-start for manufacturing), and a fund to generate a money stream to help provide affordable housing. </p>
<p>The “say no” strategy means Labor can counter Liberal attacks on the government over, for example, energy prices, by pointing out the Coalition voted against legislation last year to curb price rises. </p>
<p>Dutton jumped on the government’s superannuation tax rise, but the subsequent polling did not meet Liberal hopes they were on a winner. Newspoll showed strong support (64%) for the change, including 54% of Coalition voters. </p>
<p>While the Coalition is pursuing negative tactics (as Abbott did in opposition), this doesn’t extend to everything. There is important bipartisanship, for instance, on AUKUS. With the deal on the nuclear-powered submarines to be unveiled next week, Dutton on Thursday reaffirmed the opposition “will support the decisions of the government under AUKUS”. </p>
<p>However, one test coming up will be on the level of defence spending in the budget. Will the opposition say it should be higher than whatever the government settles on? </p>
<p>On the Voice to Parliament, Dutton has yet to declare a formal position. But he’s had nothing positive to say about it, and his party room would have a majority against. If the Liberals oppose it, that’s likely to go down poorly with younger voters. </p>
<p>Among the Liberals’ multiple problems is a weak team, which also lacks balance. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-trimming-the-tail-of-the-superannuation-tax-tiger-is-no-easy-task-200996">Grattan on Friday: Trimming the tail of the superannuation tax tiger is no easy task</a>
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<p>Senior people such as Liberal deputy Sussan Ley and shadow treasurer Angus Taylor are poor performers. </p>
<p>The moderates were decimated at the election, and those left are failing to act as a cohesive influence. </p>
<p>Backbencher Bridget Archer speaks out on issues, but comes across as reflecting and protecting her seat rather than having wider clout within the party. </p>
<p>The Liberals’ Senate leader, Simon Birmingham, is a heavyweight moderate who is not the driving force he should be. Former foreign minister Marise Payne, also a moderate, is neither seen nor heard publicly.</p>
<p>Valuable parliamentary seats are taken up by people with extreme positions, such as senators Gerard Rennick from Queensland and Alex Antic from South Australia. </p>
<p>Scott Morrison is in another category, but should make way for new blood.</p>
<p>The challenge of recruiting good potential candidates and getting them selected is only likely to get worse at a time when a political career has become unattractive to many, and the party erects road blocks to the best and brightest. </p>
<p>At the grass roots, it is vulnerable to infiltration by fundamentalist religious groups. Organisationally, it’s riven by factionalism and incompetent, with the Victorian, NSW and Western Australian divisions dysfunctional. Dutton needs to tackle this, but it’s a near-impossible task.</p>
<p>Among Dutton’s problem is Dutton himself. </p>
<p>As leader, the right-winger has shown himself pragmatic and managed to hold the party together. He is an asset in his home state of Queensland, where Labor is weak. But it is hard to see him making inroads in the south, especially in the progressive state of Victoria. Observers are looking to Aston to give an early reading.</p>
<p>Labor holds government by a very narrow margin, but as things stand now, Dutton’s only route to victory in 2025 would require the Albanese government – which faces some tough economic problems – to fail lamentably in the next two years. </p>
<p>Not impossible. Labor went into minority government in 2010 after a good win in 2007. Malcolm Turnbull turned Abbott’s 2013 landslide into a close result in 2016. </p>
<p>But if Albanese doesn’t squander power, the Liberals would be pitching for a two-stage comeback at best. And Frydenberg just might be back in the play.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201463/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Frydenberg, now in the private sector, hasn’t declared whether he will run again for Kooyong, but he hasn’t lost his political ambitionMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1844392022-06-05T10:49:04Z2022-06-05T10:49:04ZView from The Hill: Ten women in shadow cabinet, and Nationals grab trade job<p>Angus Taylor will take the key shadow treasury post in a 24-member shadow cabinet containing 10 women and six Nationals.</p>
<p>The lineup was announced by opposition leader Peter Dutton and Nationals leader David Littleproud on Sunday. </p>
<p>In a sign the opposition may consider throwing its weight behind nuclear power, Queensland Liberal Ted O'Brien, a supporter of nuclear energy, becomes shadow minister for climate change and energy.</p>
<p>O'Brien chaired a parliamentary inquiry into nuclear power and wrote in 2020: “Rather than being perpetually divisive, I believe nuclear technology has the capacity to unite Australians. It is a proposition that brings together progressives and conservatives within the Coalition.”</p>
<p>Julian Leeser, from NSW, is promoted from the backbench to shadow attorney-general and shadow minister for Indigenous Australians. This will give him a key role in the opposition’s response to the government’s planned referendum to enshrine an Indigenous Voice to Parliament. </p>
<p>Leeser has had a long term interest and involvement in the Indigenous affairs area. He co-chaired with Labor’s Patrick Dodson a parliamentary inquiry on the constitutional recognition of Indigenous Australians where he was involved in the co-design process for a Voice to Parliament.</p>
<p>The Coalition has only one Indigenous member of the federal parliament, Jacinta Price, who will sit with the Nationals. Asked about her at his news conference, Dutton pointed out she had only just been elected, but signalled her likely future elevation. </p>
<p>The Nationals will have six members of the 24 member shadow cabinet – compared to five in the Morrison cabinet – reflecting their larger proportion of the Coalition, thanks to holding their seats and gaining a senator. </p>
<p>They have also seized back trade, a long term ambition, and a portfolio they had held in earlier times. Trade and tourism goes to NSW Nationals Kevin Hogan.</p>
<p>Littleproud, who chose his frontbenchers, has included in shadow cabinet Barnaby Joyce, whom he defeated for the leadership. Littleproud’s decision was presumably partly driven by his desire to keep the outspoken Joyce from making too much trouble. Joyce will be spokesman on veterans’ affairs. </p>
<p>Another former Nationals leader, Michael McCormack, is spokesman for international development and the Pacific in the outer shadow ministry. </p>
<p>Having 10 women matches the number in the Albanese 23-member cabinet.</p>
<p>Deputy Liberal leader Sussan Ley will be shadow minister for industry, skills and training, and for small and family business, as well shadow minister for women, where she will be charged with trying to win back the support of female voters who deserted the Coalition at the election. </p>
<p>A notable absence from the frontbench is former immigration minister Alex Hawke, a factional numbers man for Scott Morrison. Stuart Robert, another close ally of Morrison, has been demoted to the outer shadow ministry, becoming shadow assistant treasurer and shadow minister for financial services.</p>
<p>Morrison had indicated publicly he did not want a frontbench post. Colleagues do not expect him to serve out the full term. </p>
<p>Former Nationals resources minister Keith Pitt is off the frontbench. The shadow resources minister will be Queensland Nationals senator Susan McDonald. </p>
<p>Darren Chester, who ran for Nationals leader, remains on the backbench, to which Joyce consigned him last year. </p>
<p>Dutton prevailed on former foreign minister Marise Payne, who had not sought a frontbench position, to become shadow cabinet secretary.</p>
<p>Littleproud will continue in agriculture, an area he held in government. </p>
<p>Foreign Affairs goes to opposition Senate leader Simon Birmingham, where he will shadow his Senate opposite number, Foreign Minister Penny Wong. Birmingham is the leader of the diminished band of moderates in the Liberal party, after several fell to “teal” independents.</p>
<p>Former attorney-general and industrial relations minister Michaelia Cash becomes shadow minister for employment and workplace relations. </p>
<p>Karen Andrews will shadow her old area of home affairs, and also become shadow minister for child protection and the prevention of family violence.</p>
<p>Deputy Nationals leader Perin Davey takes water and emergency management. </p>
<p>Former trade minister Dan Tehan becomes shadow minister for immigration and citizenship.</p>
<p>Health and aged care goes to Anne Ruston, who in the election campaign was nominated by Morrison for the health portfolio if the government remained in office. </p>
<p>The Nationals leader in the Senate, Bridget McKenzie, will be shadow minister for infrastructure, transport and regional development. </p>
<p>Sarah Henderson – a one-time ABC journalist who has become a strong critic of the public broadcaster – will become shadow minister for communications. </p>
<p>Former member of the SAS, Andrew Hastie, becomes defence spokesman. He was assistant minister for defence before the election. </p>
<p>Victorian Jane Hume will be shadow minister for finance and shadow special minister of state. </p>
<p>Alan Tudge, whose status became confused in government after he stood aside following claims made by a former staffer, will be education spokesman.</p>
<p>Paul Fletcher becomes shadow minister for science, the digital economy and government services. He will also have responsibility for the arts. </p>
<p>Michael Sukkar takes social services, the NDIS, housing and homelessness. </p>
<p>The environment shadow will be Jonathon Duniam, a senator from Tasmania. </p>
<p>Dutton said the opposition had “incredible depth of talent”. “I’m cognisant of trying to bring people through for an opportunity,” he said.</p>
<p>Littleproud said the Nationals team he brought forward was “about renewal and generational change”.</p>
<p>He was enthusiastic about getting trade back: “The trade portfolio has had a long and proud history with the Nationals, including with party greats John McEwen and Doug Anthony”.</p>
<p><a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/2126/Shadow_Ministry_5_June_2022.pdf?1654422827">Shadow Ministry List</a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184439/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Opposition leader Peter Dutton and Nationals leader David Littleproud announce the Coalition’s shadow ministryMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1802472022-03-31T18:58:52Z2022-03-31T18:58:52ZThe Morrison government’s $50 million gas handout undermines climate targets and does nothing to improve energy security<p>Tuesday night’s federal budget confirmed the Morrison government will spend <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/taylor/media-releases/accelerating-priority-natural-gas-infrastructure-projects">A$50.3 million</a> on gas projects in the Northern Territory, South Australia and the east coast. </p>
<p>This decision, it says, will support the completion of seven new “priority” gas projects. Energy Minister Angus Taylor <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/taylor/media-releases/accelerating-priority-natural-gas-infrastructure-projects">says</a> the government strongly backs natural gas and accused the opposition of being “willing to risk Australia’s energy security and investment in regional Australia to appease gas activists.” </p>
<p>However, the development of new fossil fuel projects is completely inconsistent with the broader goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050 – and will not improve energy security.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/josh-frydenbergs-budget-is-an-extraordinary-turnaround-but-leaves-a-40-billion-problem-180123">Josh Frydenberg’s budget is an extraordinary turnaround – but leaves a $40 billion problem</a>
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<h2>Gas extraction drives climate change and extreme weather</h2>
<p>Gas is a fossil fuel and a greenhouse gas. Emissions from the extraction, processing and export of gas <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/super-potent-methane-in-atmosphere-oil-gas-drilling-ice-cores.">contribute significantly</a> to Australia’s carbon emissions. </p>
<p>Globally, there is growing recognition the energy sector must change. An International Energy Agency <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050">report</a> last year made clear there can be no new oil, gas or coal development if the world is to have any chance of reaching net zero by 2050.</p>
<p>The methane found in natural gas is <a href="https://www.factcheck.org/2018/09/how-potent-is-methane/">25 times as potent</a> as carbon dioxide at trapping heat in the atmosphere. </p>
<p>Funding new gas projects undermines Australia’s efforts to achieve an already <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/climate-target-update-tracker/australia/">unambitious climate target</a> of 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2030.</p>
<p>Failing our climate target would breach the global goals of the Paris Agreement to limit the increase in global average temperatures to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. </p>
<p>The consequences of global warming are <a href="https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg2/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FinalDraft_FullReport.pdf">catastrophic</a>. Australia has had recent and profound experience of extreme climate events in the form of devastating bushfires and floods. </p>
<h2>But what about energy security and Russian gas?</h2>
<p>The European Commission is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-leaders-seek-escape-russian-fossil-fuels-2022-03-10/">phasing</a> down two-thirds of Russian gas exports by the end of the year, in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This will create a gas shortfall.</p>
<p>Russia supplies nearly <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climatesolutions/interactive/2022/europe-ban-russian-oil-gas-climate/">40%</a> of the EU’s gas consumption via a fixed pipeline infrastructure.</p>
<p>To phase this supply out, the EU will this year require 500 terrawatt hours of <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-11/what-lng-can-and-can-t-do-to-replace-russian-gas-quicktake">additional imports</a> of liquified natural gas (LNG). </p>
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<p>This will be difficult. Global markets are tight and LNG tends to be sold on long-term contracts. Alleviating the EU shortfall will require <a href="https://ecdpm.org/talking-points/what-eu-plans-phase-out-russian-gas-mean-europe-africa/">record imports</a> of LNG over the European spring and summer period and a rapid upgrade of gas infrastructure.</p>
<p>In a recent pact between Europe and the US, the EU will receive an <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-25/u-s-and-eu-reach-energy-supply-deal-to-cut-dependence-on-russia">additional 11 million tons of LNG</a> by the end of 2022. </p>
<p>It’s unclear where this LNG will come from. Much may be sourced from <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60871601#:%7E:text=Gas%20is%20already%20piped%20from,that's%20been%20chilled%20and%20liquified">non-contracted stock destined for Asia</a>. </p>
<p>However it’s acquired, the price of LNG exports will continue to rise. Indeed, the delivered price for LNG in Northwest Europe <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/300528078/if-the-supply-of-russian-gas-to-europe-were-cut-off-could-lng-plug-the-gap">rose</a> 29% in a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his special military operation. And spot prices for LNG in Asia are <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/asia-lng-spot-prices-hit-record-high-sp-data-shows-2022-03-04/">trading</a> at near record levels. </p>
<p>Australia is one of the world’s <a href="https://www.lngindustry.com/liquid-natural-gas/06012020/australia-officially-the-worlds-largest-exporter-of-lng/">largest exporters</a> of LNG, with most going to China, Japan and South Korea. </p>
<p>Given the lock-in contracts, Australia has little existing capacity to assist the EU. Australian gas producers are, however, benefiting from the higher global prices for LNG exports caused by the EU shortfall.</p>
<p>Woodside, Santos and Oil Search have all registering significant <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/lng-price-bonanza-for-woodside-santos-20220120-p59pti">gains</a> in their share prices. </p>
<h2>Complete nonsense</h2>
<p>Taylor <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/taylor/media-releases/accelerating-priority-natural-gas-infrastructure-projects">says</a> spending $50.3 million of public money for new gas projects will: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>accelerate priority projects and ensure Australia does not experience the devastating impacts of a gas supply shortfall as seen in Europe.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This is complete nonsense. </p>
<p>Australia will never face a shortfall like Europe because it’s not <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/mar/24/its-nonsense-for-angus-taylor-to-suggest-australia-could-face-an-energy-crisis-like-europes">import-dependent</a>. We have plenty of gas. </p>
<p>The issue for Australia is regulating the export of gas to ensure a sufficient domestic supply. </p>
<p>If the federal government wanted to improve Australia’s energy security, it would force gas producers in the east coast market to reserve a percentage for domestic consumption. </p>
<p>And it would actually use the Australian Domestic Gas Security mechanism. The measure was introduced to ensure gas supplies meet forecast energy needs, but has <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Australia-Institute-ADGSM-Submission-1.pdf">never</a> been triggered. </p>
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<h2>An uncertain future</h2>
<p>Funding seven gas priority projects is also inconsistent with the conclusions of the 2022 <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/gas/national_planning_and_forecasting/gsoo/2022/2022-gas-statement-of-opportunities.pdf?la=en">Gas Statement of Opportunities</a>, recently released by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). </p>
<p>This statement argues the future path for the gas sector in Australia is uncertain because the pace and impact of a transforming energy sector upon the gas system remains unclear. </p>
<p>In the short term, this statement suggests funding new infrastructure will not alleviate domestic supply concerns because it won’t be running in time.</p>
<p>In the longer term, the statement forecasts a gradual decline in domestic gas demand as consumers inevitably shift from gas to electricity or zero-emission fuels. </p>
<h2>Contrary to Australia’s climate targets</h2>
<p>Funding seven new fossil fuel projects is fundamentally contrary to Australia’s climate targets.</p>
<p>These projects will not improve Australia’s energy security or assist the EU with its supply difficulties. </p>
<p>Nor do they cohere with AEMO’s longer term conclusions about the future of the gas sector.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison has <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/national-energy-address-tomago-nsw">argued</a> gas projects are needed to generate new dispatchable electricity which can be ramped up quickly when needed, making new gas projects integral to a national pandemic recovery plan. </p>
<p>But Kerry Schott, the former head of the Energy Security Board, disagrees. She’s made it <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/apr/30/australian-energy-board-chair-says-gas-fired-power-plant-in-hunter-valley-doesnt-stack-up">clear</a> there is an abundance of cheaper, cleaner alternatives. </p>
<p>Schott is right. This is where public money should be directed – to projects that represent the future, not the polluting past.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180247/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samantha Hepburn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Supporting new fossil fuel projects is completely inconsistent with the broader goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050 - and will not improve energy security.Samantha Hepburn, Director of the Centre for Energy and Natural Resources Law, Deakin Law School, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1709442021-11-03T05:47:52Z2021-11-03T05:47:52ZAustralia’s refusal to sign a global methane pledge exposes flaws in the term ‘net-zero’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429681/original/file-20211102-13-1ju75qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C11%2C3891%2C2584&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>At the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, more than 90 nations <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop26-a-global-methane-pledge-is-great-but-only-if-it-doesnt-distract-us-from-co-cuts-171069">signed</a> a global pledge led by the United States and United Kingdom to cut methane emissions. However, Australia was not among them.</p>
<p>China, Russia, India and Iran also declined to sign the pledge, which aims to slash methane emissions by 30% before 2030. </p>
<p>Methane is emitted in coal and gas production, from livestock and other agricultural activity, and when organic waste breaks down in landfill.</p>
<p>Almost half of Australia’s annual methane emissions come from the agriculture sector. Defending the federal government’s decision, Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/australia-didn-t-sign-up-for-the-global-methane-pledge-but-what-would-it-mean-20211103-p595jp.html">said</a> Australia had pledged net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and would not set specific targets for each sector.</p>
<p>Days out from COP26, National Party leader Barnaby Joyce had claimed signing the pledge would be a disaster for coal mining and agriculture, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/australia-will-not-back-eu-us-led-pledge-cut-methane-emissions-2021-10-27/">saying</a> “the only way you can get your 30% by 2030 reduction in methane on 2020 levels would be to grab a rifle and go out and start shooting your cattle”.</p>
<p>Australia’s position on the pledge is inconsistent with methane reductions the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says are required to keep Earth below 1.5°C warming this century.</p>
<p>The debate also highlights how the shorthand phrase “net-zero emissions” conceals and distorts the real challenges in avoiding dangerous climate change. </p>
<p>It focuses attention on the wrong time frame for action – the <a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrison-attends-pivotal-global-climate-talks-today-bringing-a-weak-plan-that-leaves-australia-exposed-170842">next decade</a> is far more important for climate action than 2050. It also addresses the means of action – emissions reduction – rather than the desired goal, which is to avoid dangerous climate change. </p>
<p>And importantly, simply through delaying action, the world could feasibly reduce emissions to net-zero by 2050, but still fail to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement – keeping average global temperature rise below either 1.5°C or 2°C this century. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop26-a-global-methane-pledge-is-great-but-only-if-it-doesnt-distract-us-from-co-cuts-171069">COP26: a global methane pledge is great – but only if it doesn't distract us from CO₂ cuts</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="man at lecture with flag on blue background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429682/original/file-20211102-10001-feuhju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429682/original/file-20211102-10001-feuhju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429682/original/file-20211102-10001-feuhju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429682/original/file-20211102-10001-feuhju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429682/original/file-20211102-10001-feuhju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429682/original/file-20211102-10001-feuhju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429682/original/file-20211102-10001-feuhju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The Morrison government has refused to sign a global methane pledge.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ian Forsyth/AP</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Net-zero is both too much, and not enough</h2>
<p>The IPCC <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">report</a> released in August painted a clear picture of how different trajectories for various greenhouse gases translate to global temperature increases. </p>
<p>Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions last a very long time in the atmosphere so they accumulate. Consequently, net CO₂ emissions need to decline sharply as soon as possible if we’re to limit temperatures to 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels. </p>
<p>However, CO₂ emissions not only need to reach net-zero – the IPCC says CO₂ emissions need to go “net-negative”. This will require a massive scaling up of methods and technologies to remove existing CO₂ in the atmosphere.</p>
<p>In other words, when it comes to CO₂, net-zero is not enough. It is a way point, not the end point. </p>
<p>So how do we remove CO₂ from the atmosphere? Some methods, such as mass tree planting, are already widely implemented. Some are <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-scheme-used-by-australian-farmers-reveals-the-dangers-of-trading-soil-carbon-to-tackle-climate-change-161358">difficult to implement</a> at scale, such as substantial increases in soil carbon.</p>
<p>Others are in the exploratory stages including incorporating captured CO₂ into <a href="https://www.themandarin.com.au/145592-how-to-turn-industrial-carbon-emissions-into-building-materials/">building products</a> and <a href="https://www.co2value.eu/">high-value materials</a> or in <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/leveraging-oceans-carbon-removal-potential">the ocean</a>.</p>
<p>Each option has advantages, disadvantages and limits. The “net-zero by 2050” terminology obscures this complexity. It also conceals the need for crucial discussions about feasibility, governance and support for research and development that’s needed now.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the situation is quite different for shorter-lived gases such as methane and nitrous oxide. In those cases, going all the way to net-zero is not needed to meet the Paris goals.</p>
<p>According to the IPCC report, an illustrative scenario consistent with 1.5°C warming would involve methane emission reductions of about 30% by 2030, 50% by 2050 and just over 60% by 2100. </p>
<p>This is consistent with the global methane pledge signed at COP26 overnight. For nitrous oxide, the illustrative reductions would be about 30% by 2050.</p>
<p>So, for methane and nitrous oxide, net-zero is too much.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430107/original/file-20211103-19-1jvn7de.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430107/original/file-20211103-19-1jvn7de.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430107/original/file-20211103-19-1jvn7de.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430107/original/file-20211103-19-1jvn7de.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430107/original/file-20211103-19-1jvn7de.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=715&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430107/original/file-20211103-19-1jvn7de.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=715&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430107/original/file-20211103-19-1jvn7de.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=715&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mondays-ipcc-report-is-a-really-big-deal-for-climate-change-so-what-is-it-and-why-should-we-trust-it-165614">Monday's IPCC report is a really big deal for climate change. So what is it? And why should we trust it?</a>
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<h2>Targets based on science</h2>
<p>It should be noted, to keep temperature rise to 1.5°C, there are many possible combinations of emission-reduction trajectories for various greenhouse gases. The extent to which CO₂, methane or nitrous oxide is reduced is interchangeable and the final mix will be a function of political decisions.</p>
<p>A clear and integrated assessment of the economic, environmental and social consequences of different emission-reduction pathways is needed to inform those decisions. Without that, inefficient and inequitable economic responses may result.</p>
<p>For example, methane (<a href="https://www.mla.com.au/research-and-development/Environment-sustainability/national-livestock-methane-program/">from livestock</a>) and nitrous oxide (from <a href="https://blog.csiro.au/nitrogen-fertilisers-make-climate-change-worse/">fertiliser use</a>) make up a high proportion of agriculture emissions. But options for completely stopping these emissions are limited. </p>
<p>Farmers could offset their emissions by planting trees or rehabilitating vegetation on their properties to increase carbon stores. But this would prevent them from selling those emissions reductions on carbon markets, thus removing a potential source of farm income.</p>
<p>So an economy-wide target of net-zero for all key greenhouse gases might mean agriculture must make far more effort in emissions reduction, at much greater cost, than other sectors which largely emit CO₂ and where decarbonisation options are more readily available. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="sunset on farm with cattle and trees" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407842/original/file-20210623-21-k64xg8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407842/original/file-20210623-21-k64xg8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407842/original/file-20210623-21-k64xg8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407842/original/file-20210623-21-k64xg8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407842/original/file-20210623-21-k64xg8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407842/original/file-20210623-21-k64xg8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407842/original/file-20210623-21-k64xg8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Methane represents a large part of agriculture emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>New Zealand has recognised this, and treats agricultural emissions <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/09/what-is-new-zealand-doing-to-reach-net-zero-what-would-happen-if-australia-did-the-same">separately</a>.</p>
<p>Carving agriculture out of national emissions-reduction goals would place a greater requirement to act onto other sectors. For example, emission reductions in the transport sector may have to be greater than otherwise, to compensate for the lack of progress in agriculture. </p>
<p>But is isolating agriculture from emission reductions necessary? A <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2020.0452">recent study</a> assessed new emission reduction options for livestock, including several approaches that together may reduce emissions at the rate required by the methane pledge. They involve more efficient production, technological advances, changes in demand for livestock-related products and land-based carbon storage. </p>
<p>These are approaches already being adopted by <a href="https://www.mla.com.au/research-and-development/Environment-sustainability/carbon-neutral-2030-rd/">industry groups</a> and <a href="https://farmersforclimateaction.org.au/">farmers</a>.</p>
<h2>Towards ‘Paris-aligned’</h2>
<p>Targets for methane and nitrous oxide reductions should be set using the IPCC science – and don’t have to be set at net-zero. That would leave sectors emitting these gases with a feasible (but still challenging) pathway to reducing emissions in line with the Paris goals. </p>
<p>And where appropriate, we should start describing effective climate action as being “Paris-aligned”. Clearly, over-use of the term “net-zero emissions” misdirects attention from where it’s needed.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-clock-is-ticking-on-net-zero-farmers-must-not-get-a-free-pass-168474">The clock is ticking on net-zero, farmers must not get a free pass</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170944/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Howden is affiliated with CO2 Value Australia, a not-for-profit corporation with a mission to promote the development and deployment of sustainable industrial solutions which transform captured CO2 into useful products.</span></em></p>Targets for reductions in methane and other greenhouse gases should be guided by science, and set in line with the Paris deal.Mark Howden, Director, ANU Institute for Climate, Energy and Disaster Solutions, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1708092021-10-28T11:25:42Z2021-10-28T11:25:42ZGrattan on Friday: The weather gets choppy with Joyce and Morrison’s climate contradictions<p>In the press gallery at Parliament House, there’s a bell that years ago was rung regularly to alert journalists to press conferences and statements. Email has made it an anachronism.</p>
<p>But shortly before 8am on Thursday Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce appeared in the gallery, looking rather agitated, and personally rang the bell.</p>
<p>Joyce was there to lay an ownership claim to the exclusion of a methane reduction pledge from the 2050 net-zero climate plan Scott Morrison announced on Tuesday. “One of the key reasons that the Nationals went in to bat has become so clearly evident today,” Joyce declared.</p>
<p>This followed a report in The Australian, briefed by the office of Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor, rejecting the United States push for a 30% reduction by 2030 of methane emissions (produced by cows burping, gas extraction, and the like).</p>
<p>Taylor apparently had been onto the methane exclusion issue for some time. Later on Thursday Morrison said the government never had any intention of agreeing to the reduction. He also rejected Joyce’s confusing claim there was an agriculture carve out from the climate plan.</p>
<p>Who gets political “branding rights” on the treatment of methane was just the latest pinch point in the fallout from Tuesday’s announcement.</p>
<p>Much doubt has been created by the government’s failure to release the plan’s modelling, which Morrison says will be out in a few weeks – that is, after COP26 is well and truly behind him.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/morrisons-climate-plan-has-35-2030-emissions-reduction-projection-but-modelling-underpinning-2050-target-yet-to-be-released-170635">Morrison's climate plan has 35% 2030 emissions reduction 'projection' but modelling underpinning 2050 target yet to be released</a>
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<p>An industry department official told a Senate estimates committee the material was being put into digestible shape.</p>
<p>“As the plan was only finalised on Tuesday, we need to make sure we have written that technical work up. The actual modelling, of course, had been finalised at that point.</p>
<p>"But the write-up of that – we just need to take a little bit of extra time to make sure that it’s written clearly and able to be presented well to the Australian public,” Jo Evans, a deputy secretary in the department, said.</p>
<p>Meanwhile most of the trade-offs the Nationals have received for their reluctant support continue to remain a mystery.</p>
<p>Joyce, who became acting prime minister after Morrison departed on Thursday night for the G20 in Rome followed by COP26 in Glasgow, is likely to announce certain measures while he’s in the spotlight.</p>
<p>But others are to be in the budget update at the end of the year, presented as election commitments, or in next year’s budget if that occurs before the election.</p>
<p>Some of these unknown measures still have to be brought forward as cabinet submissions and go through the formal bureaucratic hoops, including being costed.</p>
<p>That shows how unsatisfactory the process has been – the government had months to deal with net-zero, settling things with the minor Coalition partner and finalising the trade-offs.</p>
<p>More importantly from the Nationals’ standpoint, they’re left exposed as they return to their electorates now parliament has risen for a three-week break. When they meet their constituents, they are not able to produce the suite of benefits they obtained in return for their policy sign-up.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-morrisons-net-zero-plan-is-built-more-on-politics-than-detailed-policy-170669">View from The Hill: Morrison's net-zero plan is built more on politics than detailed policy</a>
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<p>For Morrison the 2050 policy is an attempted barnacle-removing process, for both the Glasgow conference and the election. The Nationals, in contrast, see it adding to their barnacles.</p>
<p>The rejection of the requested methane cuts is another indication of the general weakness of the Australian plan. For all the struggle to land it, the plan is a bare minimum and will be seen as such in Glasgow.</p>
<p>Domestically, given the flaws and inadequacies, the plan is not likely to win votes for the government; rather, it is designed to stem the loss of them to Labor and independents in the “leafy” southern seats.</p>
<p>We’ve yet to see Labor’s alternative but one would think independent candidates will still have plenty of scope to stake out ground on the climate issue.</p>
<p>Earlier this week Morrison made some comments that set off speculation he planned a May poll, as opposed to a March-April one. </p>
<p>A May election would give the time for another budget, with the opportunities that brought.</p>
<p>Whether the election is in May or March, Morrison is already in campaign mode.</p>
<p>In this week’s Newspoll, the government is on the back foot, trailing 46-54% on the two-party vote. Regardless, both sides regard the battle as open.</p>
<p>Despite the election being so near, Labor hasn’t broken out of a trot. Albanese’s strategy is to leave the attention on the government and, more generally, to keep Labor a small target in policy terms. On the logic of its wider approach Labor could be expected to be cautious in the policy it issues on climate change, although it is still debating its position, expected to be released before Christmas.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-labor-gaining-in-polls-is-too-much-barnaby-joyce-hurting-the-coalition-170629">With Labor gaining in polls, is too much Barnaby Joyce hurting the Coalition?</a>
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<p>Albanese has been heavily influenced, negatively, by his predecessor Bill Shorten’s approach before the 2019 election, when Labor put forward an extensive and radical bag of policies.</p>
<p>The big target approach was seen to have scared off voters. Whether the small target will encourage people to vote Labor is hard to judge. The danger for the opposition is that, in the absence of a leader who is a drawcard, many people might be inclined to stick with the status quo.</p>
<p>Without the prospect of much substantive and highly differentiated policy being contested, the seat-by-seat campaigning will be especially significant at this election. Voters think local to a greater extent than they used to.</p>
<p>On Thursday the government introduced controversial legislation to require voters to produce ID at the polling booth. Labor and some in the welfare sector warn this will discourage the disadvantaged, including Indigenous people, from voting. The government says there would be plenty of protections – a range of identification could be used, including a Medicare card, and a person without identification would be allowed to cast a vote, with his or her identity checked later.</p>
<p>Given the widespread demand for identification for all sorts of things in our community, the requirement for ID when voting is not unreasonable. But it seems a solution in search of a problem, because voter fraud hasn’t been a feature of federal elections.</p>
<p>And it reflects distorted priorities that this legislation has been introduced before we see the bill for the long-awaited national integrity commission.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170809/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For Morrison the 2050 policy is an attempted barnacle-removing process, for both the Glasgow conference and the election.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1698322021-10-26T19:16:19Z2021-10-26T19:16:19ZAustralia’s clean hydrogen revolution is a path to prosperity – but it must be powered by renewable energy<p>Days out from the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, the Morrison government on Tuesday <a href="https://theconversation.com/morrisons-climate-plan-has-35-2030-emissions-reduction-projection-but-modelling-underpinning-2050-target-yet-to-be-released-170635">announced</a> a “practically achievable” path to reaching its new target of net-zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>As expected, the government will pursue a “technology not taxes” approach – eschewing policies such as a carbon price in favour of technological solutions to reduce emissions. Developing Australia’s fledgling hydrogen industry is a central plank in the plan.</p>
<p>This technological shift should not be seen as a cost burden for Australia. Yes, major transformation in industry is needed as it moves away from conventional fossil-fuelled processes. But this green industrial revolution is a potential source of great profit and prosperity – a fact Australia’s business sector has already recognised. </p>
<p>Acting quickly, and powering the shift with renewable energy, means Australia can be a world leader in green hydrogen technology and exports, <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-koreas-green-new-deal-shows-the-world-what-a-smart-economic-recovery-looks-like-145032">particular to Asia</a>.</p>
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<img alt="hand holds blue booklet" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428452/original/file-20211026-17-iv6jas.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428452/original/file-20211026-17-iv6jas.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428452/original/file-20211026-17-iv6jas.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428452/original/file-20211026-17-iv6jas.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428452/original/file-20211026-17-iv6jas.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428452/original/file-20211026-17-iv6jas.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428452/original/file-20211026-17-iv6jas.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Hydrogen is at the centre of the Morrison government’s plan to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>A ‘priority technology’</h2>
<p>Hydrogen can be produced in several ways. So-called “green” hydrogen is produced using electrolysers, powered by renewable energy, splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen. </p>
<p>“Blue” hydrogen is produced from coal or gas, with some carbon emissions trapped and stored underground. </p>
<p>A report released earlier this month found Australia could <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/green-exports-could-create-thousands-of-jobs/13585262">create 395,000</a> new jobs and generate A$89 billion in new trade by 2040 by investing in clean energy exports. Some of the biggest opportunities were in green hydrogen produced using renewable energy.</p>
<p>The National Hydrogen Strategy, published in late 2019 and spearheaded by then-Chief Scientist Alan Finkel, aims to make Australia a world leader in hydrogen. Under the most optimistic scenario, it predicts Australia’s hydrogen industry could be worth A$26 billion to the economy in 2050. </p>
<p>Energy Minster Angus Taylor on Tuesday said clean hydrogen was a “priority technology” in the government’s roadmap to reaching net-zero emissions this century, adding:</p>
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<p>“We’ve set a goal of under $2 per kilogram and as we get to that cost-competitiveness we know we’ll see explosive growth in the deployment of clean hydrogen.”</p>
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<p>Somewhat problematically, the Morrison government considers blue hydrogen a “clean” technology, and an important part of Australia’s energy transition.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/super-charged-how-australias-biggest-renewables-project-will-change-the-energy-game-148348">Super-charged: how Australia's biggest renewables project will change the energy game</a>
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<img alt="two men talking" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428451/original/file-20211026-25-j6jds6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428451/original/file-20211026-25-j6jds6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428451/original/file-20211026-25-j6jds6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428451/original/file-20211026-25-j6jds6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428451/original/file-20211026-25-j6jds6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428451/original/file-20211026-25-j6jds6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428451/original/file-20211026-25-j6jds6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Australia’s former chief scientist Alan Finkel, pictured with Energy Minister Angus Taylor, spearheaded the National Hydrogen Strategy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Wainwright/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>The revolution is possible</h2>
<p>To bring down the cost of green hydrogen, it must be manufactured at scale. This is consistent with a vision of a global green shift in which clean forms of energy and production become so competitive they displace incumbent fossil fuel industries.</p>
<p>That is certainly the way Australian businessman Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest sees it. This month he announced his company, Fortescue Future Industries, will build a green energy manufacturing centre in central Queensland. The first step in the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-11/qld-hydrogen-capacity-explainer-hydrogen-green-twiggy/100528046">$1 billion-plus</a> investment will involve hydrogen electrolysers, before the project expands to other green industry products such as cabling and wind turbines.</p>
<p>Forrest also <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/forrest-willing-to-fund-1b-green-power-station-in-nsw-20210315-p57axg">intends</a> to build a $1.3 billion gas- and hydrogen-fuelled <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/nsw-fast-tracks-andrew-forrest-backed-gas-hydrogen-port-kembla-power-station/">power plant</a> at Port Kembla in New South Wales and a plant in Brisbane, producing <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-11/queensland-hydrogen-twiggy-forrest-ammonia-feasiblity/100528732">green ammonia</a> for use in fertilisers.</p>
<p>Forrest <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/it-will-dwarf-coal-nsw-plan-seen-as-a-leap-forward-for-hydrogen-20211013-p58zpd.html">claims</a> there will be “no bigger industry” in future than green hydrogen and ammonia, saying it would dwarf the scale of iron ore and coal. The claims may sound outlandish, but history suggests they’re possible. </p>
<p>The oil industry, and its offshoots in cars and petrochemicals, grew to its mammoth size in the 20th century precisely because of industrialists such as <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/John-D-Rockefeller">John D. Rockefeller</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Henry-Ford">Henry Ford</a>. They understood that large investments at huge scale would trigger huge cost reductions as the market for goods produced by fossil fuels expanded.</p>
<p>Similarly today, huge investments in cost reduction and market expansion, if continued, could well see the green hydrogen industry <a href="https://irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2020/Dec/IRENA_Green_hydrogen_cost_2020.pdf">displace</a> fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Economics will drive the transition. The costs of green hydrogen will likely outmatch the costs of oil and gas, and so become the inputs of choice in making <a href="https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/science-tech/new-eco-friendly-way-make-ammonia-could-be-boon-agriculture-hydrogen-economy">green fertilisers</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/green-steel-is-hailed-as-the-next-big-thing-in-australian-industry-heres-what-the-hype-is-all-about-160282">green steel</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/green-cement-a-step-closer-to-being-a-game-changer-for-construction-emissions-126033">green cement</a> and fuel for <a href="https://theconversation.com/green-cement-a-step-closer-to-being-a-game-changer-for-construction-emissions-126033">heavy vehicles</a> such as trucks and ships. </p>
<p>The business sector is not the only one blazing a trail. Several Australian states, including <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-13/andrew-forrest-backs-nsw-green-hydrogen-plan/100534458">New South Wales</a>, <a href="https://www.epw.qld.gov.au/about/initiatives/hydrogen/taskforce">Queensland</a> and <a href="https://www.wa.gov.au/government/publications/western-australian-renewable-hydrogen-strategy-and-roadmap">Western Australia</a>, are also seizing green hydrogen opportunities.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-morrison-government-is-set-to-finally-announce-a-2050-net-zero-commitment-heres-a-to-do-list-for-each-sector-170099">The Morrison government is set to finally announce a 2050 net-zero commitment. Here's a 'to do' list for each sector</a>
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<img alt="white tank with H2 Hydrogen in blue writing" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428447/original/file-20211026-17-1mqpom4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428447/original/file-20211026-17-1mqpom4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428447/original/file-20211026-17-1mqpom4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428447/original/file-20211026-17-1mqpom4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428447/original/file-20211026-17-1mqpom4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428447/original/file-20211026-17-1mqpom4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428447/original/file-20211026-17-1mqpom4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The Morrison government wants hydrogen produced at under $2 a kilogram.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>The future must be green</h2>
<p>Much resistance to clean energy in Australia has focused on the costs of the transition. But in fact, it can be a path to prosperity.</p>
<p>There’s one important caveat, however. Minister Taylor said on Tuesday that his technology roadmap included hydrogen produced from coal and gas, saying “Australia has an opportunity to be a world leader in the adoption of blue and green hydrogen”.</p>
<p>But as <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-at-a-crossroads-in-the-global-hydrogen-race-and-one-path-looks-risky-157864">others have noted</a>, producing hydrogen from fossil fuels is a risky strategy. It can emit substantial amounts of greenhouse gases, and capturing these emissions at a high rate may drive up the cost of the technology. </p>
<p>This would make it far more expensive than green hydrogen produced from renewable energy, disrupting the cycle of cost-reduction and market expansion. </p>
<p>Taylor is right in saying Australia could be a global leader in hydrogen production and exports. But only hydrogen produced using renewable energy will bring about a true green industrial revolution.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-at-a-crossroads-in-the-global-hydrogen-race-and-one-path-looks-risky-157864">Australia is at a crossroads in the global hydrogen race – and one path looks risky</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169832/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Mathews receives funding from the Australia Research Council (ARC) Discovery Project 2019-202.</span></em></p>Australia’s business sector has recognised the profits to be made in the hydrogen transition. Acting quickly, and powering the shift with renewable energy, is key.John Mathews, Professor Emeritus, Macquarie Business School, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1706352021-10-26T03:57:54Z2021-10-26T03:57:54ZMorrison’s climate plan has 35% 2030 emissions reduction ‘projection’ but modelling underpinning 2050 target yet to be released<p>The government claims Australians would be nearly $2000 better off on average under its plan to reach net zero by 2050 compared with taking no action.</p>
<p>According to the modelling – which the government has yet to release – gross national income would be 1.6% higher, and 62,000 new regional mining and heavy industry jobs would be created under the plan.</p>
<p>Scott Morrison and energy minister Angus Taylor released the plan and a “projection” of up to 35% for emissions reduction by 2030. The prime minister will take the plan to the Glasgow climate conference next week.</p>
<p>Morrison reiterated Australia would not make this a “target”, but would stick with its present 2030 target of reducing emissions by 26-28% on 2005 levels by 2030.</p>
<p>The expected overshoot is being driven by three factors: the rapid uptake of renewables, especially solar; business and household energy efficiency using new and emerging technology, and changes in land use. </p>
<p>Morrison said the target had been an election commitment, while also saying Australia “may even achieve better” than the 35% reduction. He ruled out promising a bigger medium term figure before the election.</p>
<p>But, unexpectedly, the government has not accompany the plan’s release with a list of what the Nationals won in their agreement to sign up to the 2050 target. The only measure announced was that the Productivity Commission would review progress every five years, starting in 2023, looking at the socioeconomic impacts.</p>
<p>The government says existing priority technologies enabled by the plan would get Australia 85% of the way to net zero by 2050. The gap would be closed by emerging technologies.</p>
<p>The breakdown of the sources of abatement in the plan is: reductions already made up to 2020, 20%; the technology investment roadmap, 40%; global technology trends, 15%; international and domestic offsets, 10-20%; and further technology breakthroughs, 15%.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428415/original/file-20211026-17-135lxyo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428415/original/file-20211026-17-135lxyo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=614&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428415/original/file-20211026-17-135lxyo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=614&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428415/original/file-20211026-17-135lxyo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=614&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428415/original/file-20211026-17-135lxyo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=771&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428415/original/file-20211026-17-135lxyo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=771&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428415/original/file-20211026-17-135lxyo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=771&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The government’s plan for net zero at 2050.</span>
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<p>Asked about the total cost of the plan, Morrison avoided the question. He said the government would release the modelling underpinning the policy “soon”.</p>
<p>He stressed the economic side of the plan, acknowledging but placing less emphasis on the environmental need to get to net zero by 2050.</p>
<p>The plan was “uniquely Australian”, Morrison said. “It is an energy, trade, an economic plan, not just an environmental plan. It’s about delivering results through technology, not taxes.”</p>
<p>It worked by “enabling” rather than legislating or mandating.</p>
<p>The plan would “not shut down our coal or gas production or exports.</p>
<p>"It will not impact households, businesses or the broader economy with new
costs or taxes imposed by the initiatives that we are undertaking.</p>
<p>"It will not cost jobs, not in farming, mining or gas, because what we are
doing in this plan is positive things, enabling things. It will not increase energy bills.</p>
<p>"it is not a revolution but a careful evolution.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428430/original/file-20211026-23-u3gcmr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428430/original/file-20211026-23-u3gcmr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428430/original/file-20211026-23-u3gcmr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428430/original/file-20211026-23-u3gcmr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428430/original/file-20211026-23-u3gcmr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428430/original/file-20211026-23-u3gcmr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428430/original/file-20211026-23-u3gcmr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/October%202021/document/australias-long-term-emissions-reduction-plan.pdf">Australia's long-term emissions reduction plan</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Morrison said the plan was removing any blockage to investment in technologies, saying, “We are going to do this. If you want to do this thing with us then we’re the place you want to do it.”</p>
<p>He said Australians “understand and they support the need to take action on climate change. So do I. So does our government.”</p>
<p>Morrison indicated he will spruik Australia’s record at Glasgow. “There will be lots of words in Glasgow but I’ll be able to point to the actions of Australia and the achievements of Australia.”</p>
<p>He argued other countries could learn from Australia. “The Australian way shows a way for other countries to follow. The challenges that we face here in Australia, particularly with the nature of our economy are not that dissimilar to those being faced in Indonesia or in Vietnam or in India or places like that or indeed China.</p>
<p>Opposition leader Anthony Albanese said Morrison had announced "a vibe rather than a target”.</p>
<p>Labor’s climate spokesman Chris Bowen said “I’ve seen more detail on fortune cookies than on the documents released by the government”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170635/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Morrison has 35% emission reduction ‘projection’ in climate policy for GlasgowMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1621842021-07-07T05:08:30Z2021-07-07T05:08:30ZSeen to be green? Research reveals how environmental performance shapes public perceptions of our leaders<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410033/original/file-20210707-21-1hnqnp3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5502%2C3654&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In recent months, Prime Minister Scott Morrison has faced <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-56854558">pressure</a> both domestically and internationally to do more on climate change. In contrast, state governments have been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/02/net-zero-emissions-by-2050-target-climate-summit-president-thanks-australian-states-but-not-morrison-government">applauded</a> for adopting more ambitious emissions reduction targets.</p>
<p>Data from the <a href="https://www.australianleadershipindex.org/">Australian Leadership Index</a> suggests these differences may have electoral consequences. It found environmental outcomes increasingly shape how voters view their political leaders. And alarmingly for the Morrison government, the public has well and truly registered its lack of action on climate change.</p>
<p>In 2020, public attention on COVID-19 provided some cover for political leaders not acting on climate change. But from February to April this year, when climate issues rose to the fore, producing positive environmental outcomes became a key driver of public perceptions of political leadership.</p>
<p>As the next federal election looms, voters are watching closely to see whether the Morrison government’s environment and climate policies serve the public interest.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People hold protest signs" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410037/original/file-20210707-15-19vdbdb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410037/original/file-20210707-15-19vdbdb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410037/original/file-20210707-15-19vdbdb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410037/original/file-20210707-15-19vdbdb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410037/original/file-20210707-15-19vdbdb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410037/original/file-20210707-15-19vdbdb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410037/original/file-20210707-15-19vdbdb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australians are concerned about the environment and want political leaders to act.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What is the Australian Leadership Index?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.australianleadershipindex.org/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIrOXbkYXQ8QIVDq-WCh3GywCtEAAYASAAEgK-P_D_BwE">Australian Leadership Index</a> is a national survey which has been running since 2018. It seeks to provide a comprehensive picture of how perceptions of leadership change in response to events over time and across sectors and institutions.</p>
<p>Each quarter, the index surveys 1,000 adults to reveal how institutional leaders – those in government, private, public and the not-for-profit sectors – can show leadership for the greater good.</p>
<p>Such leadership is as much about process as outcomes. Given this, the survey measures public perceptions of the extent to which leaders try to create positive outcomes in three areas: social, economic and environmental. It also looks at perceptions of leaders’ transparency, ethical standards and accountability.</p>
<p>Among the questions asked of survey participants is whether state and federal governments are focused on producing positive environmental outcomes (such as protecting natural places and improving sustainability) and the extent to which this determines how favourably they view these institutions. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Federal Environment Minister Sussan Ley and Prime Minister Scott Morrison." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410038/original/file-20210707-17-18e37ek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410038/original/file-20210707-17-18e37ek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410038/original/file-20210707-17-18e37ek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410038/original/file-20210707-17-18e37ek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410038/original/file-20210707-17-18e37ek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410038/original/file-20210707-17-18e37ek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410038/original/file-20210707-17-18e37ek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Participants are asked if governments are producing good environmental outcomes. Pictured: federal Environment Minister Sussan Ley and Prime Minister Scott Morrison.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Who’s doing best on the environment?</h2>
<p>On climate change policy, the Morrison government has opted to prioritise investment in low-emissions technology rather than introduce taxes or set emissions reduction targets. </p>
<p>In late April, the weakness of Australia’s national policies were laid bare during a global climate summit convened by US President Joe Biden. Australia was <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/insufficient-biden-administration-criticises-australia-on-climate-20210422-p57lb9.html">criticised</a> before and after the summit for failing to set clear targets for emissions reduction.</p>
<p>This criticism did not go unnoticed by the voting public. Our survey showed from February to April 2021, the proportion of Australians who agreed the federal government was producing positive environmental outcomes declined from 38% to 25%.</p>
<p>The decline may also be linked to a major independent report by Professor Graeme Samuel in late January, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-major-report-excoriated-australias-environment-laws-sussan-leys-response-is-confused-and-risky-154254">declared</a> Australia’s environment was in a poor state and national laws protecting it were flawed and badly outdated. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/spot-the-difference-as-world-leaders-rose-to-the-occasion-at-the-biden-climate-summit-morrison-faltered-159295">Spot the difference: as world leaders rose to the occasion at the Biden climate summit, Morrison faltered</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>The picture was different for perceptions of state governments. From February to April 2021, the proportion of Australians who believed state governments were producing positive environmental outcomes increased from 26% to 37%.</p>
<p>Australian states and territories have taken relatively ambitious action on climate change, including committing to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/02/net-zero-emissions-by-2050-target-climate-summit-president-thanks-australian-states-but-not-morrison-government">net-zero emissions by 2050</a>.</p>
<p>However, only around one-third of respondents believed governments at any level were focused on producing positive environmental outcomes. Clearly, even the states have more work to do in this area.</p>
<p>In the months since April, public attention has largely turned back to the COVID-19 pandemic, and scores on environmental performance reverted to previous levels. Last month, the proportion of Australians who agreed the federal government was producing positive environmental outcomes was at 37%. And it was 25% for state governments.</p>
<p>This reflects how national conversations about climate change and other environmental issues — including mainstream and social media and other forms of public debate – can shape voter opinions.</p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/6659063/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<div style="width:100%!;margin-top:4px!important;text-align:right!important;"><a class="flourish-credit" href="https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6659063/?utm_source=embed&utm_campaign=visualisation/6659063" target="_top"><img alt="Made with Flourish" src="https://public.flourish.studio/resources/made_with_flourish.svg"> </a></div>
<hr>
<p>When people evaluated the overall leadership of governments in 2020, producing positive environmental outcomes had a 3% impact on their assessment. In January to April of 2021, this figure rose to 10%. This meant the environment became the third-largest driver of leadership perceptions, behind responsiveness to people’s needs (34%) and transparency (16%).</p>
<p>From May to June, however, the importance of environmental outcomes fell back to 3%. Again, this reflects the effect of media coverage in shaping voter attitudes to their leaders. </p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="qioUM" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/qioUM/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
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<h2>Keeping the environment in the spotlight</h2>
<p>So what does all this mean? Governments wanting to be seen as good leaders must have strong, well-implemented climate and environment policies. And when media coverage and public debate is heavily focused on these issues, governments cannot easily brush them aside.</p>
<p>Concern about the environment is <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-80-of-australians-care-about-climate-action-why-dont-they-vote-like-it-157050">not guaranteed</a> to sway a person’s vote. But our results suggest when public attention is focused on environmental issues, voters look to their leaders for an effective response.</p>
<p>It follows, then, that keeping climate change and the environment in the national spotlight will force governments to act with more urgency and serve the greater good.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/let-there-be-no-doubt-blame-for-our-failing-environment-laws-lies-squarely-at-the-feet-of-government-141482">Let there be no doubt: blame for our failing environment laws lies squarely at the feet of government</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162184/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vlad Demsar receives philanthropic funding for the Australian Leadership Index.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Pallant receives philanthropic funding for the Australian Leadership Index</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melissa Wheeler receives philanthropic funding for the Australian Leadership Index.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samuel Wilson receives philanthropic funding for the Australian Leadership Index.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sylvia T. Gray does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Colin Bednall receives philanthropic funding for the Australian Leadership Index.</span></em></p>Alarmingly for the Morrison government, the public has well and truly registered its lack of action on climate change.Vlad Demsar, Lecturer of Marketing, Swinburne University of TechnologyJason Pallant, Senior Lecturer of Marketing, Swinburne University of TechnologyMelissa A. Wheeler, Senior Lecturer, Department of Management and Marketing, Swinburne University of TechnologySamuel Wilson, Associate Professor of Leadership, Swinburne University of TechnologySylvia T. Gray, Research Assistant and Casual Academic, Swinburne University of TechnologyTimothy Colin Bednall, Senior Lecturer in Management, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1611802021-05-19T09:00:28Z2021-05-19T09:00:28ZGovernment-owned firms like Snowy Hydro can do better than building $600 million gas plants<p>The Morrison government today announced it’s building a new gas power plant in the Hunter Valley, committing up to A$600 million for the government-owned corporation Snowy Hydro to construct the project.</p>
<p>Critics argue the plant is inconsistent with the latest climate science. And a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/19/australia-urged-to-drop-coal-and-gas-plans-after-global-energy-agencys-warning">new report</a> by the International Energy Agency has warned no new fossil fuel projects should be funded if we’re to avoid catastrophic climate change.</p>
<p>The move is also inconsistent with research showing government-owned companies can help drive clean energy innovation. Such companies are often branded as uncompetitive, stuck in the past and unable to innovate. But in fact, they’re sometimes better suited than private firms to take investment risks and test speculative technologies. </p>
<p>And if the investments are successful, taxpayers, the private sector and consumers share the benefits.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Wind farm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401528/original/file-20210519-23-151vj67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401528/original/file-20210519-23-151vj67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401528/original/file-20210519-23-151vj67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401528/original/file-20210519-23-151vj67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401528/original/file-20210519-23-151vj67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401528/original/file-20210519-23-151vj67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401528/original/file-20210519-23-151vj67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">If government-owned firms led the way in clean energy technologies, society would benefit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Lead, not limit</h2>
<p>Federal energy minister Angus Taylor <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/taylor/media-releases/protecting-families-and-businesses-higher-energy-prices">announced</a> the funding on Wednesday. He said the 660-megawatt open-cycle gas turbine at Kurri Kurri will “create jobs, keep energy prices low, keep the lights on and help reduce emissions”.</p>
<p>Experts insist the plan <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/04/energy-australia-confirms-new-gas-plant-in-illawarra-after-morrison-government-threatened-to-intervene">doesn’t stack up</a> economically and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/barrage-of-batteries-to-undermine-new-gas-plant-before-it-s-built-20210519-p57t70.html">may operate</a> at less than 2% capacity.</p>
<p>But missing from the public debate is the question of how government-owned companies such as Snowy Hydro might be used to accelerate the clean energy transition.</p>
<p>Australian governments (of all persuasions) have not often used the companies they own to lead in clean energy innovation. Many, such as Hydro Tasmania, still rely on decades-old hydroelectric technologies. And others, such as Queensland’s Stanwell Corporation and Western Australia’s Synergy, rely heavily on older coal and gas assets. </p>
<p>Asking Snowy Hydro to build a gas-fired power plant is yet another example – but it needn’t be this way.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-single-mega-project-exposes-the-morrison-governments-gas-plan-as-staggering-folly-133435">A single mega-project exposes the Morrison government's gas plan as staggering folly</a>
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</p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="gas plant" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401529/original/file-20210519-19-drqkkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401529/original/file-20210519-19-drqkkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401529/original/file-20210519-19-drqkkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401529/original/file-20210519-19-drqkkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401529/original/file-20210519-19-drqkkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401529/original/file-20210519-19-drqkkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401529/original/file-20210519-19-drqkkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Snowy Hydro has been funded to build a $600 million gas plant, but it could do better.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The burning question</h2>
<p>Globally, more than 60% of electricity <a href="https://asiasociety.org/australia/engaging-asias-state-owned-enterprises-climate-challenge">comes from</a> wholly or partially state-owned companies. In Australia, despite the 20-year trend towards electricity privatisation, government-owned companies remain important power generators.</p>
<p>At the Commonwealth level, Snowy Hydro provides around <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/system/files/State%20of%20the%20energy%20market%202020%20-%20Full%20report%20A4.pdf">20%</a> of capacity to New South Wales and Victoria. And <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/system/files/State%20of%20the%20energy%20market%202020%20-%20Full%20report%20A4.pdf">most</a> electricity in Queensland, Tasmania and Western Australia is generated by state government-owned businesses.</p>
<p>But political considerations mean government-owned electricity companies can struggle to navigate the clean energy path.</p>
<p>For example in April this year, the chief executive of Stanwell Corporation, Richard Van Breda, <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/departed-stanwell-ceo-a-victim-of-climate-and-culture-war-politics-20210428-p57n3m">suggested</a> the firm would mothball its coal-powered generators before the end of their technical life, because cheap renewables were driving down power prices. </p>
<p>Queensland’s Labor government was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/28/ceo-quit-queenslands-biggest-power-generator-after-energy-minister-complained-to-board">reportedly</a> unhappy with the announcement, fearing <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/departed-stanwell-ceo-a-victim-of-climate-and-culture-war-politics-20210428-p57n3m">voter backlash</a> in coal regions. Breda has since <a href="https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/mystery-surrounds-stanwell-ceo-s-exit-20210426-p57mj0">stepped down</a> and Stanwell is reportedly backtracking on its transition plans.</p>
<p>Such examples beg the question: can government-owned companies ever innovate on clean energy? A growing literature in economics, as well as several real-world examples, suggest that under the right conditions, the answer is yes.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-1-5-global-warming-limit-is-not-impossible-but-without-political-action-it-soon-will-be-159297">The 1.5℃ global warming limit is not impossible – but without political action it soon will be</a>
</strong>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="desk showing Stanwell logo" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401531/original/file-20210519-19-1vl67le.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401531/original/file-20210519-19-1vl67le.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401531/original/file-20210519-19-1vl67le.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401531/original/file-20210519-19-1vl67le.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401531/original/file-20210519-19-1vl67le.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401531/original/file-20210519-19-1vl67le.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401531/original/file-20210519-19-1vl67le.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">State-owned Stanwell Corporation is reportedly back-tracking on plans to mothball its coal plants early.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stanwell Corporation</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Privatised is not always best</h2>
<p><a href="https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.12.4.133">Economists</a> have traditionally argued state-owned companies are not good innovators. As the argument goes, the absence of competitive market forces makes them less efficient than their private sector peers. </p>
<p>But recent research by <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162517306820">academics</a> and international policy institutions such as <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/state-owned-enterprises-and-the-low-carbon-transition_06ff826b-en">the OECD</a> has shown government ownership in the electricity sector can be an asset, not a curse, for achieving technological change. </p>
<p>The reason runs contrary to orthodox economic thinking. While competition can lead to firm efficiency, some economists <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.2753/JEI0021-3624480311">argue</a> government-owned firms can take greater risks. Without the pressure for market-rate returns to shareholders, government enterprises may be freer to invest in more speculative technologies. </p>
<p>My ongoing research <a href="https://searchworks.stanford.edu/view/13810814">has shown</a> the reality is even more complex. Whether state-owned electric companies can drive clean energy innovation depends a great deal on government interests and corporate governance rules.</p>
<p>For example, consider the New York Power Authority (NYPA) which, like Snowy Hydro, is wholly government owned. </p>
<p>New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has deliberately sought to use NYPA to decarbonise the state’s electricity grid. The government has managed the company in a way that enables it to take risks on new transmission and generation technologies that investor-owned peers cannot. </p>
<p>For instance, NYPA is <a href="https://www.utilitydive.com/news/digitalization-beyond-data-aggregation-nypas-progress/550820/">investing in</a> advanced sensors and computing systems so it can better manage distributed energy sources such as solar and wind. The technology will also simulate major catastrophic events, including those likely to ensue from climate change. </p>
<p>These investments are likely to contribute to greater grid stability and greater renewables use, benefiting not just NYPA but other electricity generators and ultimately, consumers. </p>
<p>Such innovation is nothing new. Also in the US, the state-owned Sacramento Municipal Utility District built one of the first utility-scale solar projects in the world in <a href="https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/solar/two-decades-of-solar-power-in-sacramento-11858/#gref">1984</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Andrew Cuomo in front of flag" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401533/original/file-20210519-17-1dhbo0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401533/original/file-20210519-17-1dhbo0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401533/original/file-20210519-17-1dhbo0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401533/original/file-20210519-17-1dhbo0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401533/original/file-20210519-17-1dhbo0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401533/original/file-20210519-17-1dhbo0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401533/original/file-20210519-17-1dhbo0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NY Governor Andrew Cuomo is using a state-owned company to aid the clean energy transition.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mary Altaffer/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The way forward</h2>
<p>More could be done to ensure Australian government-owned corporations are clean energy catalysts.</p>
<p>Clean energy technologies can struggle to bridge the gap from invention to widespread adoption. Public investment can bring down the price of such technologies or demonstrate their efficacy. </p>
<p>In this regard, government-owned companies could work with private technology firms to invest in technologies in the early stages of development, and which could have significant public benefits. For instance, in 2020, the Western Australian government-owned company Synergy <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/west-australia-to-build-100mw-big-battery-the-first-on-states-main-grid-78594/">sought</a> to build a 100 megawatt battery with private sector partners.</p>
<p>But many problems facing state-owned companies are the result of ever-changing government policy priorities. The firms should be reformed so they are owned by government, but operated at arm’s length and with other partners. This might better enable clean energy investment without the politics.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-states-are-forging-ahead-with-ambitious-emissions-reductions-imagine-if-they-worked-together-160191">Australia's states are forging ahead with ambitious emissions reductions. Imagine if they worked together</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161180/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Arjuna Dibley consults for Pollination, he is a Fellow at the Centre for Policy Development and a board member at Environmental Justice Australia. The views expressed in the article are his own and not those of any of the organisations with which he is affiliated. </span></em></p>Government-owned firms are often branded as uncompetitive, stuck in the past and unable to truly innovate. But they’re sometimes better suited than private firms to drive new, clean technologies.Arjuna Dibley, Visiting Researcher, Climate and Energy College, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1568632021-03-11T18:11:23Z2021-03-11T18:11:23ZThe death of coal-fired power is inevitable — yet the government still has no plan to help its workforce<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388962/original/file-20210311-14-1ypw475.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C17%2C5973%2C3970&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Yallourn power station — Australia’s <a href="https://environmentvictoria.org.au/our-campaigns/safe-climate/yallourn-australias-dirtiest-power/">oldest, dirtiest coal plant</a> — will close four years ahead of schedule in 2028. <a href="https://www.energyaustralia.com.au/about-us/media/news/energyaustralia-powers-ahead-energy-transition">Announcing the move</a> this week, operator Energy Australia said it will build a giant energy storage battery on the site to make room for more renewables. This is a powerful statement about where our energy system is heading.</p>
<p>Yallourn has operated for 47 years burning brown coal. It supplies one-fifth of Victoria’s energy and employs 500 permanent workers and hundreds more contractors. It’s also responsible for <a href="https://environmentvictoria.org.au/our-campaigns/safe-climate/yallourn-australias-dirtiest-power/">13% of Victoria’s emissions</a>. </p>
<p>In response to the announcement, federal Energy Minister Angus Taylor <a href="https://www.miragenews.com/yallourn-power-station-525889/">said</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Our thoughts are with the workers, their families and local business owners who rely on the power station for their livelihoods.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>So what, exactly, is the the federal government doing to help the <a href="https://theconversation.com/45-000-renewables-jobs-are-australias-for-the-taking-but-how-many-will-go-to-coal-workers-141531">10,000 domestic coal workers</a> set to lose their jobs when Yallourn and other coal power stations shut down? At the moment, the federal government isn’t offering anything more than platitudes. </p>
<p>Over the next 15 years, the Australian Energy Market Operator (<a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/isp/2020/final-2020-integrated-system-plan.pdf?la=en">AEMO</a>) projects most of Australia’s 20-odd coal plants will also close. Australia urgently needs investment and policy solutions to manage this inevitable transition. Without it, workers and electricity consumers will be left dangerously exposed.</p>
<h2>The inevitable demise of coal</h2>
<p>Solar and wind energy are now the cheapest forms of new electricity generation. As the former chief executive of AEMO, <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/worlds-fastest-energy-transition-aemo-maps-path-to-94-per-cent-renewables-26955/">Audrey Zibelman</a>, stated last year: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>It is inevitable […] we are at a position where the existing coal fleet is coming to the end of its technical life and is going to retire. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Renewable energy has grown to <a href="https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/?range=1y&interval=1w">25-30% of the market</a>, placing enormous pressure on coal-fired generators and lowering their market share. In fact, a <a href="http://greenmarkets.com.au/images/uploads/Coal-Plant-Profitability-Is-Eroding_February-2021.pdf">recent study</a> estimates that by 2025, as many as five Australian coal power stations could be unprofitable.</p>
<p>At the last federal election, <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/coalition-said-50-renewables-would-wreck-the-economy-now-their-modest-climate-targets-depend-on-it-69429/">the Morrison government claimed</a> 50% renewable energy by 2030 would be ruinous for our economy. </p>
<p>Now, several expert energy analysts <a href="http://greenmarkets.com.au/images/uploads/Coal-Plant-Profitability-Is-Eroding_February-2021.pdf">estimate</a> that renewable projects already in the pipeline could see 50% renewables occur as early as 2025.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-timing-of-yallourns-closure-shows-its-high-time-for-a-carbon-price-156936">Vital Signs: timing of Yallourn's closure shows it's high time for a carbon price</a>
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<h2>Australia has no plan</h2>
<p>Australia is not well-prepared for the closure of coal power stations. It has no national climate and energy policy. And unlike nations such as Germany and Spain, there is no timetable for closures or agreements in place to manage the exit of coal power stations. </p>
<p>Under the <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/regulation/energy-rules/national-electricity-rules/current">National Electricity Rules</a>, generators are required to give three years’ notice for a closure. But the penalties for failing to do so are not a significant deterrent relative to the incentive to stay in the market for as long as possible. </p>
<p>A recent <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/closures-any-day-coal-plants-in-peril-as-prices-plunge-20210307-p578gx.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1615139306">Sydney Morning Herald report</a> quoted an energy market source who said coal plant owners are playing a “game of chicken”. They are holding on and hoping another plant closes, which would tighten supply, raise electricity prices and improve the financial viability of remaining generators. </p>
<p>The closure of Yallourn is too far away to change the equation for other coal power stations at risk.</p>
<p>Without effective regulation or policy, regional coal communities are mostly left relying on the owners’ goodwill, or fear of reputational damage, to do the right thing.</p>
<p>Already, we’ve seen the damage planned and unplanned coal plant closures can have on workers and consumers. </p>
<p>After the Hazelwood power station in the Latrobe Valley closed in 2016 with just a few months’ notice, data presented to the <a href="https://unglobalcompact.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/2020.10.28_Just-Transition-Report_Final.pdf">Victorian parliament in 2019</a> showed just one in three workers had found full-time work and one in four were unemployed. </p>
<p>What’s more, <a href="http://greenmarkets.com.au/images/uploads/Coal-Plant-Profitability-Is-Eroding_February-2021.pdf">electricity prices spiked</a> once Hazelwood’s supply was pulled from the market – demonstrating the risks to electricity supplies and consumers when coal exits don’t happen in an orderly manner.</p>
<p>Regional coal communities need time to adjust to the energy transition. If a string of Australian coal stations close at short notice, the social and economic impacts could be devastating.</p>
<p>In the case of Yallourn, the Victorian government negotiated an agreement, including seven years’ notice of the closure and support for the workforce, such as re-training.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-australia-can-phase-out-coal-power-while-maintaining-energy-security-152747">How Australia can phase out coal power while maintaining energy security</a>
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<hr>
<p>Some coal plant operators are also taking the lead. In 2017, AGL gave five years’ notice that the Liddell coal plant in the New South Wales Hunter Valley would close in 2022 (the shutdown has since been <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/agl-to-delay-closure-of-liddell-power-station-to-2023/11398492">pushed back</a> to 2023). The company is now investing in transition measures for the <a href="https://www.agl.com.au/-/media/aglmedia/documents/about-agl/sustainability/rehabilitation-and-transition/frequently-asked-questions.pdf">site and workforce</a>. </p>
<p>Heavy-handed intervention by the federal government has made attracting investment harder for Liddell and could do the same for Yallourn. </p>
<p>Renewable energy already creates more jobs (<a href="https://theconversation.com/45-000-renewables-jobs-are-australias-for-the-taking-but-how-many-will-go-to-coal-workers-141531">just under 30,000</a>) than the domestic coal sector. Most of these jobs are currently in construction, but by the mid-2030s as many as half could be in ongoing operation and maintenance as the fleet of renewable projects grows. </p>
<p>This number will increase further. But while renewables projects will create some new jobs in coal regions, most will be in other regional areas and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/45-000-renewables-jobs-are-australias-for-the-taking-but-how-many-will-go-to-coal-workers-141531">capital cities</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/45-000-renewables-jobs-are-australias-for-the-taking-but-how-many-will-go-to-coal-workers-141531">45,000 renewables jobs are Australia’s for the taking – but how many will go to coal workers?</a>
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<hr>
<h2>So what needs to happen?</h2>
<p>It seems almost everyone recognises the reality of coal power’s inevitable demise — except the federal government. </p>
<p>AEMO projects a grid dominated by renewable energy by 2035. Almost all of Australia’s banks and insurers have <a href="https://unglobalcompact.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/2020.10.28_Just-Transition-Report_Final.pdf">committed to exit thermal coal between 2030 and 2035</a>. </p>
<p>The NSW, Queensland and Victorian governments are establishing <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/what-is-renewable-energy-zone/">Renewable Energy Zones</a> to fast-track the growth of renewable energy before coal plants retire. And there are initiatives to grow regional jobs such as the <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/nsw-appoints-first-renewable-energy-sector-board-to-guide-energy-plan/">NSW Renewable Sector Board</a>, the <a href="https://lva.vic.gov.au">Latrobe Valley Authority</a>) and collaborations such as the <a href="https://www.hunterjobsalliance.org.au">Hunter Jobs Alliance</a>). </p>
<p>These are all important and meaningful initiatives. But without a national policy or a process for coal exits, they’re operating in a vacuum without timeframes. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388961/original/file-20210311-19-wm9fda.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388961/original/file-20210311-19-wm9fda.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388961/original/file-20210311-19-wm9fda.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388961/original/file-20210311-19-wm9fda.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388961/original/file-20210311-19-wm9fda.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388961/original/file-20210311-19-wm9fda.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388961/original/file-20210311-19-wm9fda.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388961/original/file-20210311-19-wm9fda.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Loy Yang coal-fired power station in Victoria.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Australia should start looking to overseas experiences, where governments are establishing transition authorities and injecting funds to diversify regional economies and retrain workers. The European Union, for example, has set up a €17.5 billion (A$27 billion) <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_20_2354">Just Transition Fund</a>. And national agreements between the government, industry, unions and communities to phase out coal have been negotiated in Germany and Spain.</p>
<p>There’s little prospect of this happening any time soon in the current Australian political climate, but a range of models have been advocated here. This <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-australia-can-phase-out-coal-power-while-maintaining-energy-security-152747">includes auctions</a> to stagger closures, or <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/no-more-hazelwoods-a-proposal-to-ensure-coal-plants-close-in-an-orderly-way/">coal owners nominating</a> a closure window and depositing money in a fund as insurance towards that commitment.</p>
<p>Whatever the model, a policy solution for the demise of coal is urgently needed across levels of governments, energy planners and local communities. Otherwise, it’s likely to be a bumpy ride for coal workers and the electricity system. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-transition-from-coal-4-lessons-for-australia-from-around-the-world-115558">How to transition from coal: 4 lessons for Australia from around the world</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156863/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney received funding from the Clean Energy Council to undertake a survey of renewable energy employment in Australia and from the National Australia Bank to assess the implications of 'just transition' for financial institutions and the corporate sector for a report developed in partnership with Global Compact Network Australia.</span></em></p>Yallourn power station, Australia’s oldest and dirtiest coal plant, will close four years ahead of schedule. Without a national policy, coal workers are left dangerously exposed.Chris Briggs, Research Principal, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1545662021-02-07T19:06:37Z2021-02-07T19:06:37ZThe US jumps on board the electric vehicle revolution, leaving Australia in the dust<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382684/original/file-20210205-20-hhfwkw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C22%2C3840%2C2132&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Morrison government on Friday released a <a href="https://consult.industry.gov.au/climate-change/future-fuels-strategy/">plan</a> to reduce carbon emissions from Australia’s road transport sector. Controversially, it ruled out consumer incentives to encourage electric vehicle uptake. The disappointing document is not the electric vehicle jump-start the country sorely needs.</p>
<p>In contrast, the United States has recently gone all-in on electric vehicles. Like leaders in many developed economies, President Joe Biden will offer consumer incentives to encourage uptake of the technology. The nation’s entire government <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-autos-idUSKBN29U2LW">vehicle fleet</a> will also transition to electric vehicles made in the US.</p>
<p>Electric vehicles are crucial to delivering the substantial emissions reductions required to reach <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2020/achieving-net-zero-emissions-by-2050#abstract">net-zero by 2050</a> – a goal Prime Minister Scott Morrison now says he <a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrison-has-embraced-net-zero-emissions-now-its-time-to-walk-the-talk-154478">supports</a>. </p>
<p>It begs the question: when will Australian governments wake up and support the electric vehicle revolution?</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1353809013348171778"}"></div></p>
<h2>A do-nothing approach</h2>
<p>In Australia in 2020, electric vehicles <a href="https://www.caradvice.com.au/914746/exclusive-tesla-sales-in-australia-revealed-up-16-per-cent-in-2020/">comprised</a> just 0.6% of new vehicle sales – well below the global average of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/19/global-sales-of-electric-cars-accelerate-fast-in-2020-despite-covid-pandemic">4.2%</a>. </p>
<p>Overseas, electric vehicle uptake has been boosted by <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/electric-vehicles">consumer incentives</a> such as tax exemptions, toll road discounts, rebates on charging stations and subsidies to reduce upfront purchase costs. </p>
<p>And <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/taxpayer-support-vital-to-electric-vehicle-sales-official-report-says-20180614-p4zlg0.html">past advice</a> to government has stated financial incentives are the best way to get more electric vehicles on the road.</p>
<p>But government backbenchers, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/turnbull-government-mps-ridicule-claims-of-looming-backbench-revolt-over-electric-cars-20180128-h0pm86.html">including</a> Liberal MP Craig Kelly, have previously warned against any subsidies to make electric cars cost-competitive against traditional cars.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/morrison-has-embraced-net-zero-emissions-its-time-to-walk-the-talk-154478">Morrison has embraced net-zero emissions – it's time to walk the talk</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>Releasing the government’s Future Fuels Strategy discussion paper <a href="https://consult.industry.gov.au/climate-change/future-fuels-strategy/">on Friday</a>, Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor said subsidies for electric vehicles did not represent good value for money. </p>
<p>(As argued <a href="https://twitter.com/DrJakeW/status/1357547031615578112">here</a>, the claim is flawed because it ignores the international emissions produced by imported vehicle fuel).</p>
<p>The Morrison government instead plans to encourage business fleets to transition to electric vehicles, saying businesses accounted for around 40% of new light vehicle sales in 2020. </p>
<p>The government has also failed to implement fuel efficiency standards, despite in 2015 establishing a <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/vehicles/environment/forum/index.aspx">ministerial forum</a> to do so.</p>
<p>The approach contrasts starkly with that taken by the Biden administration.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Craig Kelly struggling to open a bottle" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382686/original/file-20210205-18-1aoopex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382686/original/file-20210205-18-1aoopex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382686/original/file-20210205-18-1aoopex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382686/original/file-20210205-18-1aoopex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382686/original/file-20210205-18-1aoopex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382686/original/file-20210205-18-1aoopex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382686/original/file-20210205-18-1aoopex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Liberal MP Craig Kelly, pictured here struggling to open a bottle of water, opposes government subsidies to encourage electric vehicles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Biden’s electrifying plan</h2>
<p>Cars, buses and trucks are the
<a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/energy-and-the-environment/where-greenhouse-gases-come-from.php#:%7E:text=In%202019%2C%20about%2046%25%20of,21%25%20came%20from%20burning%20coal.&text=The%20residential%20and%20commercial%20sectors,sector%20and%20the%20industrial%20sector">largest source of emissions in the US</a>. To tackle this, Biden has proposed to:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>offer new <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-autos-idUSKBN29U2LW">consumer incentives</a> to support electric vehicle purchases, beyond the <a href="https://electrek.co/2021/01/05/which-electric-vehicles-still-qualify-for-us-federal-tax-credit/">existing $US7,500 tax credit</a></p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-autos-idUSKBN29U2LW">electrify</a> the government’s 650,000-strong fleet</p></li>
<li><p>establish ambitious <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-executive-actions-transport-idUSKBN29P12Z">fuel economy standards</a></p></li>
<li><p>build an extra <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-02/joe-biden-plan-to-fight-climate-change-could-sell-25-million-electric-cars">500,000 public charging stations</a> for electric vehicles <a href="https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/joe-biden-administration-ev-autos-transportation-infrastructure/">by 2030</a></p></li>
<li><p>provide <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-autos-idUSKBN29U2LW">incentives</a> for US manufacturers to build electric vehicles and parts</p></li>
<li><p>make all new US-built buses zero-emissions by 2030, and electrify the nation’s <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-26/nextera-firstgroup-to-electrify-school-buses-a-biden-priority">500,000 school buses</a></p></li>
<li><p>invest $US5 billion into battery research to further <a href="https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/joe-biden-administration-ev-autos-transportation-infrastructure/">reduce</a> electric vehicle prices</p></li>
<li><p>ensure every American city with 100,000 or more residents has high-quality, zero-emissions <a href="https://joebiden.com/clean-energy/">public transport options</a>.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>And by committing to carbon-free electricity generation <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/01/27/executive-order-on-tackling-the-climate-crisis-at-home-and-abroad/">by 2035</a>, the Biden administration is also ensuring renewable energy will power this electric fleet.</p>
<p>This combined support for electric vehicles and renewable energy is crucial if the US is to reach <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/08/joe-bidens-move-to-net-zero-emissions-will-leave-australia-in-the-coal-dust">net zero emissions by 2050</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/clean-green-machines-the-truth-about-electric-vehicle-emissions-122619">Clean, green machines: the truth about electric vehicle emissions</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Made in America</h2>
<p>US companies are getting on board to avoid missing out on the electric vehicle revolution.</p>
<p>The day after Biden announced his fleet transition plan, General Motors (GM) - the <a href="https://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/home.detail.html/content/Pages/news/us/en/2021/jan/0128-carbon.html">largest</a> US vehicle manufacturer and a major employer - <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/business/gm-zero-emission-vehicles.html">announced</a> it would stop selling fossil fuel vehicles by 2035 and be carbon-neutral by 2040. </p>
<p>This aligns with plans by the US states of California and Massachusetts to <a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a35104768/massachusetts-ban-new-gas-cars-2035/">ban</a> the sale of fossil fuel vehicles by 2035.</p>
<p>GM is serious about the transition, committing <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-emissions-idUSKBN29X2AY">$US27 billion</a> and planning at least <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2021/01/25/president-joe-biden-commits-to-replacing-entire-federal-fleet-with-electric-vehicles/">30 new</a> electric vehicle models by 2025. And on Friday, the Ford Motor Company said it would double its investment in vehicle electrification to <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2021/02/04/ford-doubles-investment-in-electrification-to-22b-7b-for-avs/?sh=792c8ebc2d25">$US22 billion</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/yCy-a_E2I3s?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A General Motors ad for its electric vehicle strategy which aired during the US Superbowl.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Opportunities and challenges abound</h2>
<p>Using government fleets to accelerate the electric vehicle transition is smart and strategic, because it:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>allows consumers to see the technology in use</p></li>
<li><p>creates market certainty</p></li>
<li><p>encourages private fleets to transition</p></li>
<li><p>enables the development of a future second-hand electric vehicle market, once fleet vehicles are replaced.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Biden’s fleet plan includes a clear target, ensuring it stimulates the economy and supports his broader goal to create <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2021/01/25/president-joe-biden-commits-to-replacing-entire-federal-fleet-with-electric-vehicles/#:%7E:text=President%20Joe%20Biden%20said%20Monday,auto%20industry%20and%20supply%20chains">one million</a> new US automotive jobs. Prioritising local manufacturing of vehicles, batteries and other components is key to maximising the benefits of his electric vehicle revolution.</p>
<p>On face value, the Morrison government’s business fleet plan has merit. But unlike the US approach, it does not involve a clear target and <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/news/new-package-to-lower-emissions-through-future-technologies">funding</a> allocated to the initiative is relatively meagre.</p>
<p>So it’s unlikely to make much difference or put Australia on par with its international peers.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Man inspects an electric vehicle battery" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382687/original/file-20210205-16-1jhf4vp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382687/original/file-20210205-16-1jhf4vp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382687/original/file-20210205-16-1jhf4vp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382687/original/file-20210205-16-1jhf4vp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382687/original/file-20210205-16-1jhf4vp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382687/original/file-20210205-16-1jhf4vp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382687/original/file-20210205-16-1jhf4vp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia is well placed to capitalise on demand for electric vehicle components.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Australian governments must wake up</h2>
<p>Compounding the absence of consumer incentives to encourage uptake in Australia, some states are mulling <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/labor-s-electric-vehicle-tax-set-for-a-rough-road-ahead-20210129-p56xw8.html">taxing</a> electric vehicles before the market has been established. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/taxes-on-electric-cars-could-block-the-road-to-a-net-zero-future-20201123-p56h8d.html">Our research</a> shows this could not only delay electric vehicle uptake, but jeopardise Australia’s chances of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>Australia is already a world leader in building <a href="https://tritiumcharging.com/">fast-charging</a> hardware, and manufactures <a href="https://thedriven.io/2020/10/16/bustech-secures-electric-deal-with-queensland-and-with-us-bus-giant-cummins/">electric buses</a> and <a href="https://www.sea-electric.com/">trucks</a>. We could also lead the global electric vehicle supply chain, due to our <a href="https://www.australianmining.com.au/features/batteries-included-how-australia-is-charging-up-for-a-revolution/">significant</a> reserves of lithium, copper and nickel.</p>
<p>Despite these opportunities, the continuing lack of national leadership means the country is missing out on many <a href="https://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/EVC-State-of-EVs-2020-report.pdf">economic benefits</a> the electric vehicle revolution can bring.</p>
<p>Australia should adopt a Biden-inspired electric vehicle agenda. Without it, we will miss our climate targets, and the opportunity for <a href="http://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/New-Policy-Proposal-Recharging-the-economy-Accelerating-electric-vehicle-adoption.pdf">thousands</a> of new jobs.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wrong-way-go-back-a-proposed-new-tax-on-electric-vehicles-is-a-bad-idea-127608">Wrong way, go back: a proposed new tax on electric vehicles is a bad idea</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154566/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Jake Whitehead is the Tritium e-Mobility Fellow at the Dow Centre for Sustainable Engineering Innovation at The University of Queensland, holds an Advance Queensland Industry Research Fellowship focussed on how electric vehicles can deliver co-benefits to the energy sector, is a Member of the International Electric Vehicle Policy Council, is a Lead Author for The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and Director of Transmobility Consulting. He has previously received government funding for several sustainable transport projects, including research on both hydrogen and electric vehicles. He does not own any shares, or receive any cash funding from the electric vehicle industry, however, he does own an electric vehicle. His UQ position is not funded by Tritium, and he does not recieve any income from the company. His endowed chair is named in recognition of the advanced manufacturing company being founded by former engineering graduates at The University of Queensland.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Dia Adhikari Smith is an e-Mobility Research Fellow at the Dow Centre for Sustainable Engineering Innovation at the University of Queensland. She has previously received funding for energy systems and power engineering projects in the UK. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thara Philip is an e-Mobility doctoral student at The University of Queensland.</span></em></p>A new Morrison government plan sorely misses the point on electric vehicles. It’s in stark contrast to Biden’s ambitious EV strategy.Jake Whitehead, Advance Queensland Industry Research Fellow & Tritum E-Mobility Fellow, The University of QueenslandDia Adhikari Smith, E-Mobility Research Fellow, The University of QueenslandThara Philip, E-Mobility Doctoral Researcher, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1517822020-12-09T11:51:29Z2020-12-09T11:51:29ZEmissions projections indicate Australia won’t need carryover credits to meet Paris targets<p>Australia is on track to meet its 2030 Paris climate targets without resorting to carryover credits and could exceed them with the aid of the recently-announced technology roadmap, according to projections to be released on Thursday.</p>
<p>Australia has pledged to reduce emissions by 26-28% on 2005 levels by 2030.</p>
<p>The annual update of emissions projections shows that to meet the 26% cut, without using carryover credits, a further reduction of 56 million tonnes would be needed over the decade to 2030.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373891/original/file-20201209-13-q2bih0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373891/original/file-20201209-13-q2bih0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373891/original/file-20201209-13-q2bih0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373891/original/file-20201209-13-q2bih0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373891/original/file-20201209-13-q2bih0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373891/original/file-20201209-13-q2bih0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=654&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373891/original/file-20201209-13-q2bih0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=654&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373891/original/file-20201209-13-q2bih0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=654&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">image.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To reach the higher target of a 28% cut without the credits, a reduction of 123 million tonnes would be required over the decade.</p>
<p>Neither of these scenarios includes the technology investment roadmap – which is the government’s policy to support new and emerging energy technologies to a price that is comparable with higher emitting alternatives.</p>
<p>The Minister for Emissions Reduction, Angus Taylor, said if the roadmap was taken into account, “Australia is projected to beat its 2030 target by 145 million tonnes”.</p>
<p>This would be without relying on the credits which have been gained from exceeding earlier targets.</p>
<p>“Under this scenario, Australia’s emissions are projected to be 29% below 2005 levels by 2030,” Taylor said.</p>
<p>Scott Morrison has flagged the government won’t use the carryovers if they are not necessary to meet Australia’s commitments.</p>
<p>He is set to confirm this when he addresses a Pacific Islands Forum virtual climate summit on Friday. This precedes the Climate Ambition Summit hosted by Britain, France and the United Nations at the weekend to mark the fifth anniversary of the Paris accord.</p>
<p>The Pacific summit is aimed at putting pressure on the weekend meeting, which is being called “the sprint to Glasgow”, the delayed climate conference to be held in a year’s time.</p>
<p>There has been argy bargy over whether Morrison could get a speaking role at the weekend meeting, where leaders are being asked to make new commitments. As of Wednesday, he was not expected to be a speaker.</p>
<p>The update in the Australia’s emissions projections 2020 report shows Australia’s position against the 2030 target has improved by more than 300 million tonnes since the 2019 projections, and by 639 million tonnes since 2018.</p>
<p>The improvement since 2018 is equivalent to taking all of the country’s passenger vehicles off the road for 15 years.</p>
<p>Emissions are projected to decline to 478 million tonnes in 2030 which is 22% below 2005 levels. Incorporating the technology investment roadmap, emissions are forecast to be 436 million tonnes in 2030 – 29% below 2005 levels.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373892/original/file-20201209-13-z1tkv3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373892/original/file-20201209-13-z1tkv3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373892/original/file-20201209-13-z1tkv3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373892/original/file-20201209-13-z1tkv3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373892/original/file-20201209-13-z1tkv3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373892/original/file-20201209-13-z1tkv3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373892/original/file-20201209-13-z1tkv3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373892/original/file-20201209-13-z1tkv3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">image.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The update says the downward revision in the 2020 projections reflects:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the inclusion of new measures to speed up the development and deployment of low emissions technologies in the recent budget</p></li>
<li><p>a further reduction in projected emissions from the electricity sector due to continued strong uptake of renewables – especially small and mid-scale solar – by households and businesses; and</p></li>
<li><p>the temporary effect of COVID-related restrictions on the economy.</p></li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151782/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia is on track to meet its 2030 Paris climate targets without resorting to carryover credits, with the aid of the recently-announced technology roadmap, according to projections to be released on Thursday.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1508392020-12-03T02:14:23Z2020-12-03T02:14:23ZWhy can politicians so easily dodge accountability for their mistakes? The troubling answer: because they can<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372669/original/file-20201202-13-1fq134k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Damian Shaw/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In recent days, the issue of government accountability was brought into sharp focus — again — when NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian admitted that community grants awarded primarily to councils in Coalition seats ahead of the 2019 state election was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/nov/26/berejiklian-admits-140m-grant-scheme-was-pork-barrelling-as-approval-documents-revealed">pork barrelling</a>. </p>
<p>In defence, she said the practice of pork barrelling was “<a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/berejiklian-says-controversial-grants-program-was-pork-barrelling-20201126-p56i79">rightly or wrongly</a>” normal and wasn’t illegal, and that governments of all colours engage in election spending in order “to curry favour” with the electorate.</p>
<p>When the premier of NSW uses as a standard of integrity that pork barrelling is “not against the law”, she shows contempt for democratic conventions and a U-turn from the views she expressed in February 2019 when introducing measures to strengthen integrity in government. </p>
<p>These measures included a revised code of conduct for ministers and a stern reminder to politicians that they “<a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/new-anticorruption-unit-set-for-the-nsw-dpp-under-berejiklian-election-pledge-20190201-h1aq8r">always remain accountable to the community</a>”.</p>
<h2>Ministers were once held to a higher standard</h2>
<p>In the 1960s, the eminent scholar Roger Wettenhall <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/21524607">argued</a> ministers were accountable for <em>all</em> that occurred within their departments.</p>
<p>This was a recognition that even if ministerial action was not directly responsible for errors, ministers were nonetheless accountable for them. In the most serious cases, there was an expectation that ministers should resign, though in reality, few ever did. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-government-drags-its-heels-a-better-model-for-a-federal-integrity-commission-has-emerged-148796">As the government drags its heels, a better model for a federal integrity commission has emerged</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Ministers are not just accountable for significant errors made within their departments, but also for behaviours deemed contrary to their ministerial code of conduct. Again, conventions hold that ministers should resign if their actions are deemed dishonest, were intended to mislead parliament or the public, or brought the government into disrepute. </p>
<p>Many ministers have resigned over improprieties in the past. For instance, Immigration Minister Mick Young <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/alp-reels-in-the-wake-of-mick-young-resignation-19880209-k2nin">stood aside</a> over the “Paddington Bear” issue, Jim Cairns <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/loans-affair-exposed-naivety-arrogance-of-whitlam-government/news-story/107ee2e68f031907adacbe61278a1a3d">resigned</a> over improperly seeking overseas loans, Jamie Briggs <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/briggs-reaction-is-realism-not-political-correctness/news-story/b6a650b6906f8a133835a4ac19f24ba4">stepped down</a> over his “personal behaviour” and Michael MacKellar <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_MacKellar#:%7E:text=MacKellar%20attracted%20some%20controversy%20over,of%20a%20colour%20television%20set.&text=MacKellar%20resigned%20from%20Parliament%20on,future%20Prime%20Minister%20Tony%20Abbott.">resigned</a> over importing a colour television. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Briggs resigned as a minister in the Turnbull government." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372697/original/file-20201203-15-loep9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372697/original/file-20201203-15-loep9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372697/original/file-20201203-15-loep9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372697/original/file-20201203-15-loep9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372697/original/file-20201203-15-loep9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372697/original/file-20201203-15-loep9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372697/original/file-20201203-15-loep9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Briggs resigned as a minister in the Turnbull government over an incident in a Hong Kong bar involving a female public servant.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">MICK TSIKAS/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How ministers today have dealt with scandal</h2>
<p>But fast forward to today, and neither Richard Colbeck nor Stuart Robert have resigned over major blunders within their ministries related to <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/09/03/richard-colbeck-censured-senate-aged-care/">aged care</a> and the <a href="https://www.wellingtontimes.com.au/story/7015438/robodebt-minister-claims-win-ending-scheme/">“robodebt” scandal</a>, respectively. </p>
<p>This begs the question why Prime Minister Scott Morrison did not deem it sufficiently important to exact accountability from his ministers for their major mistakes, especially when these two cases cost more than a billion dollars of public funds.</p>
<p>It also remains unclear why minister Angus Taylor, who sent a letter to the lord mayor of Sydney <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/23/doctored-documents-angus-taylor-news-corp-climate-clover-moore">making false accusations</a> about the Sydney City Council’s travel expenses, was not asked to resign. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Taylor was forced to apologise for the letter." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372699/original/file-20201203-23-1lrq361.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372699/original/file-20201203-23-1lrq361.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372699/original/file-20201203-23-1lrq361.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372699/original/file-20201203-23-1lrq361.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372699/original/file-20201203-23-1lrq361.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372699/original/file-20201203-23-1lrq361.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372699/original/file-20201203-23-1lrq361.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Taylor was forced to apologise after the figures in his letter were proved incorrect. He says he now considers the matter ‘finalised’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">MICK TSIKAS/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Similarly, the personal conduct of ministers Alan Tudge and Christian Porter has come under scrutiny thanks to an <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-10/four-corners-investigation-christian-porter-sexism-inappropriate/12862910">ABC Four Corners investigation</a>, but has been <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-10/scott-morrison-responds-four-corners-report-christian-porter/12867382">dismissed by Morrison</a> on the basis their alleged actions occurred during the watch of the previous prime minister. </p>
<p>And on numerous occasions, the travel allowances for ministers and MPs have been challenged, without serious repercussions. The current federal ministerial code of conduct spells out clearly that such indiscretions are not acceptable.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-in-the-public-interest-why-the-abc-is-right-to-cover-allegations-of-inappropriate-ministerial-conduct-149821">What's in the 'public interest'? Why the ABC is right to cover allegations of inappropriate ministerial conduct</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This brings us back to the issue of pork barrelling. At the federal level, minister <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/02/bridget-mckenzie-resigns-following-sports-rort-affair">Bridget McKenzie did resign</a> this year over the “sports rorts” affair. The code of conduct provides that ministers allocate the funds available to them in “the public interest”. McKenzie’s view that the public interest was the same as her party’s interest was unacceptable. </p>
<p>This scandal has parallels with an earlier “sports rorts affair” that cost <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-22/everything-we-know-about-sports-grants-so-far/11888620">Labor minister Ros Kelly her position in 1994</a>, as well as with the current NSW local government grants scheme with its shredded papers. </p>
<p>Rather than accept their accountability like McKenzie and Kelly, Berejiklian is maintaining that pork barrelling is common practice — an opinion that might well be contested by parliament and the community. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="McKenzie resigned from Morrison’s ministry." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372702/original/file-20201203-15-v3z3ze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372702/original/file-20201203-15-v3z3ze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372702/original/file-20201203-15-v3z3ze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372702/original/file-20201203-15-v3z3ze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372702/original/file-20201203-15-v3z3ze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372702/original/file-20201203-15-v3z3ze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372702/original/file-20201203-15-v3z3ze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">McKenzie resigned from Morrison’s ministry in February over her role in the sports rorts affair.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">MICK TSIKAS/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Have politicians been emboldened by their COVID successes?</h2>
<p>Why, then, are so many current politicians willing to dodge taking accountability for their actions? The easy answer is because they can.</p>
<p>After all, the government conventions around accountability have no legal force. They have merely been “honoured” by politicians as part of our democratic culture – as sociologist <a href="https://www.booktopia.com.au/organizational-culture-and-leadership-edgar-h-schein/book/9781119212041.html?source=pla&gclid=Cj0KCQiAk53-BRD0ARIsAJuNhptoVhQh3RzKAEwxASv7unNmb8HdTSvVlOhiWh5nbxWC3CyXLR4D830aAsUeEALw_wcB">Edgar Schein suggests</a>, it is “the way we do things around here”. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-long-history-of-political-corruption-in-nsw-and-the-downfall-of-mps-ministers-and-premiers-147994">The long history of political corruption in NSW — and the downfall of MPs, ministers and premiers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>It seems current politicians are re-setting this democratic culture and the conventions that go along with it. Modern politicians are now very savvy in managing the press, and deft at reframing issues to their advantage. </p>
<p>Berejiklian gave a master class in this when she was confronted with accusations of <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/we-were-close-berejiklian-was-in-a-relationship-with-ex-mp-maguire-20201012-p5647m.html">failing to disclose an intimate relationship</a> with disgraced former MP Daryl Maguire. </p>
<p>She reframed the issue as a personal one, in which she had been swept along by a romantic attachment. She argues, probably correctly, that she did nothing that was illegal. However, her actions were highly questionable from an ethical point of view.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Berejiklian has been under intense media scrutiny." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372706/original/file-20201203-13-mq1k5i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372706/original/file-20201203-13-mq1k5i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372706/original/file-20201203-13-mq1k5i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372706/original/file-20201203-13-mq1k5i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372706/original/file-20201203-13-mq1k5i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372706/original/file-20201203-13-mq1k5i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372706/original/file-20201203-13-mq1k5i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Berejiklian has been under intense scrutiny since revealing her relationship with Maguire in October.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">DEAN LEWINS/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Perhaps our current federal and NSW leaders have been emboldened by their successes in responding to the pandemic and are counting on this to defuse criticisms of their actions. They likely believe that issues of accountability — at least in the public mind — might pale in relation to the “big” issues of bushfires and COVID-19. </p>
<p>As such, ignoring accountability is seen as merely a small peccadillo.</p>
<h2>Independents may be the key</h2>
<p>In the broader context, voters have shown they are more willing to elect local independents, such as Helen Haines, Rebekha Sharkie and Zali Steggall at the federal level and Roy Butler, Joe McGirr and Helen Dalton in NSW, who are not seen to be in the mould of other politicians. </p>
<p>There is clearly a move towards candidates who place a very high value on conventional values, such as representation and integrity. And it is these members who may act as circuit breakers to stop the further corrosion of democratic conventions in our governments. </p>
<p>Simon Longstaff, executive director of <a href="https://ethics.org.au/">The Ethics Centre</a>, <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22library%2Fpartypol%2FLASO6%22">summed this up well when he noted</a></p>
<blockquote>
<p>we want politicians who see engagement in public life as a vocation and not just a game. We want politicians who will speak the truth - even when it harms them to do so. We want politicians who respect us as citizens and not just as voters.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>If the major parties continue to ignore accountability, perhaps the election of independents and minor parties will provide the stimulus for truth to power.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150839/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Aulich does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Have our leaders been emboldened by their successes in responding to the pandemic and counting on this to defuse criticisms of their behaviours?Chris Aulich, Adjunct Professor at the University of Canberra, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1467432020-09-23T19:59:48Z2020-09-23T19:59:48Z‘The good, the bad and the ugly’: here’s the lowdown on Australia’s low-emissions roadmap<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359478/original/file-20200923-16-wtedzm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C0%2C5326%2C3564&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>“Picking winners” has been anathema to Australian policy-making for decades. The federal government’s technology investment roadmap bucks the trend, targeting public investments in specific low-emissions technologies.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/September%202020/document/first-low-emissions-technology-statement-2020.pdf">first low emissions technology statement</a>, released on Tuesday by federal energy minister Angus Taylor, flags public investment in five areas: hydrogen, energy storage, low-carbon steel and aluminium, carbon capture and storage, and soil carbon storage. </p>
<p>It’s encouraging to see the government recognise its role in industry policy. Government support matters in the early stage of development for industries. </p>
<p>But it’s also important the government makes the right calls on technology investment. If not, we will lock in increases to carbon emissions, and lose potential economic benefits. So here’s a closer look at the good, the bad and the ugly of the low-emissions technology roadmap.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The cover of the first low-emissions technology statement" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359479/original/file-20200923-24-93qh22.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359479/original/file-20200923-24-93qh22.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359479/original/file-20200923-24-93qh22.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359479/original/file-20200923-24-93qh22.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359479/original/file-20200923-24-93qh22.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359479/original/file-20200923-24-93qh22.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359479/original/file-20200923-24-93qh22.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The government’s first low emissions technology statement contains policies targeting specific industries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>First, the good</h2>
<p>The roadmap includes a series of specific targets for each priority technology. For example, the government wants hydrogen produced at A$2 per kilogram – a price research suggests is achievable in the coming years, even when <a href="https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/ccep_crawford_anu_edu_au/2020-09/ccep20-07_longden-jotzo-prasad-andrews_h2_costs.pdf">renewable energy</a> is used to produce it. </p>
<p>Each of these targets includes specific dollar figures – something experts <a href="https://energy.anu.edu.au/files/2020%2007%2001%20ANU%20Energy%20Change%20Institute%20Technology%20Investment%20Roadmap%20response.pdf">recommended</a> during the consultation process. Such targets can help the private sector gauge the government’s ambition, guiding their own investment choices. So we are pleased the federal government recognises its role here. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/angus-taylors-tech-roadmap-is-fundamentally-flawed-renewables-are-doable-almost-everywhere-146352">Angus Taylor's tech roadmap is fundamentally flawed — renewables are doable almost everywhere</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We also welcome the roadmap’s recognition that Australia is not a technological island. Australia <a href="http://www2.itif.org/2019-global-energy-innovation-index.pdf">is a laggard in public investment</a> in low-carbon technologies; governments in China, Japan and Germany are investing heavily, as is the European Union. Australia must carefully choose the areas where we have a competitive advantage, and where we’re better off relying on importing from others.</p>
<p>Commendably, the government also says it will transparently monitor the impact of its investments and seek to identify which are underperforming, so it can calibrate its approach over time. It is crucial these evaluations can be assessed independently.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A wind farm in Germany" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359526/original/file-20200923-18-byohlv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359526/original/file-20200923-18-byohlv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=299&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359526/original/file-20200923-18-byohlv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=299&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359526/original/file-20200923-18-byohlv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=299&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359526/original/file-20200923-18-byohlv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359526/original/file-20200923-18-byohlv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359526/original/file-20200923-18-byohlv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Germany is a leader in public investment in low-carbon technologies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Next, the bad</h2>
<p>While it is good to have numeric targets, their credibility is weakened by the absence of a time frame in which they should be met. </p>
<p>More generally, the roadmap provides no detail on how the government decided which technologies to target. There also is no information enabling an independent assessment of the expected reduction in carbon emissions and increased economic activity. </p>
<p>Without these crucial details, it is impossible to determine the wisdom of the government’s choices. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-dose-of-reality-morrison-governments-new-1-9-billion-techno-fix-for-climate-change-is-a-small-step-146341">'A dose of reality': Morrison government's new $1.9 billion techno-fix for climate change is a small step</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The roadmap is also firmly opposed to supporting technologies all the way to mainstream adoption. Yet a clear path to future market demand is exactly what’s needed to entice private enterprise to invest in a new technology. Germany encouraged widespread uptake of solar technology both by supporting technology developers and through <a href="https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/en/documents/publications/studies/recent-facts-about-photovoltaics-in-germany.pdf">generous government subsidies</a>.</p>
<p>Demand creation is also needed to lift technological breakthroughs over the “<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1024980525678">valley of death</a>” – the gap between invention and commercialisation, into which so many innovations fall.</p>
<p>Most controversially, the plan claims gas is a way to produce “clean” hydrogen, in combination with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. But this method is unproven at scale, and is not <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-hydrogen-to-be-truly-clean-it-must-be-made-with-renewables-not-coal-128053">all that clean</a> – substantial CO₂ will inevitably be released in the process. </p>
<p>The selection may have resulted from the guidance provided by the ministerial reference panel, which advised the government on its plan and featured a representative from the gas industry. Solar or wind – or any manufacturing industries that ought to benefit from green hydrogen deployment – were not equally represented.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Solar panels" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359480/original/file-20200923-22-baoggw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359480/original/file-20200923-22-baoggw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359480/original/file-20200923-22-baoggw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359480/original/file-20200923-22-baoggw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359480/original/file-20200923-22-baoggw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359480/original/file-20200923-22-baoggw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359480/original/file-20200923-22-baoggw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Germany accelerated growth in solar photovoltaics sector through generous subsidies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>And finally, the ugly</h2>
<p>The roadmap states the Morrison government intends to take a hands-off approach to mature technologies such as coal, gas, solar and wind power. But this statement is misleading, because the playing field was never level to begin with. </p>
<p>The International Monetary Fund estimates Australia provides <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2019/05/02/Global-Fossil-Fuel-Subsidies-Remain-Large-An-Update-Based-on-Country-Level-Estimates-46509">tens of billions of dollars in subsidies</a> annually to support fossil fuels. The government’s economic recovery plan from the COVID-19 downturn involves <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/15/government-to-use-529m-funding-to-unlock-more-gas-for-domestic-market">subsidies</a> for the gas industry. And the absence of a carbon price in Australia – which would force CO₂ producers to pay for their pollution – is effectively another fossil fuel subsidy. </p>
<p>The roadmap considers manufacturing using renewables-produced hydrogen to be competitive by 2040. This suggests gas-with-CCS will at best have a temporary emissions-reduction role in industry. So ultimately, this investment path offers false hope, and may be used by fossil fuel incumbents to further delay a <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/global-sustainability/article/discourses-of-climate-delay/7B11B722E3E3454BB6212378E32985A7">genuine energy transition</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Gas ship being filled in the Pilbara." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359482/original/file-20200923-22-1vixdcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359482/original/file-20200923-22-1vixdcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359482/original/file-20200923-22-1vixdcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359482/original/file-20200923-22-1vixdcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359482/original/file-20200923-22-1vixdcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359482/original/file-20200923-22-1vixdcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359482/original/file-20200923-22-1vixdcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A gas ship being filled in the Pilbara. Producing hydrogen from gas, in combination with carbon capture and storage, is not clean.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Winning at picking</h2>
<p>Throwing fistfuls of dollars at early-stage technology can be risky. And public investment in innovation is best spent on technologies help make Australia’s low-carbon export industries competitive in the long term.</p>
<p>Through the roadmap, and associated low-emissions technology statement, the government has developed a useful way to embrace low-carbon “<a href="http://mission-innovation.net/">mission-innovation</a>” through targeted support for specific technologies.</p>
<p>To make the roadmap work, ongoing, open and transparent evaluation of whether technologies are achieving this mission must be at its heart. </p>
<p>Most importantly, long-term technology roadmaps should not deflect attention from the most important mission of all: urgently accelerating emissions reduction <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2019">to meet the goals</a> of the Paris Agreement, and minimise the risk of catastrophic climate change.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/japan-is-closing-its-old-dirty-power-plants-and-thats-bad-news-for-australias-coal-exports-144452">Japan is closing its old, dirty power plants – and that's bad news for Australia's coal exports</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146743/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>In addition to his academic work, Llewelyn Hughes provides advice to a number of companies operating in the renewable energy sector in Japan.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jorrit Gosens does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s encouraging that the federal government recognises its role in industry policy. But its choice to support some technologies is disappointing.Llewelyn Hughes, Associate Professor of Public Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityJorrit Gosens, Research Fellow, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1463522020-09-22T20:04:36Z2020-09-22T20:04:36ZAngus Taylor’s tech roadmap is fundamentally flawed — renewables are doable almost everywhere<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359287/original/file-20200922-16-1kyte5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=50%2C0%2C5509%2C3700&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP/Dave Hunt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Morrison government on Tuesday revealed the five low-emissions technologies it will prioritise for investment. The so called “<a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/technology-investment-roadmap-first-low-emissions-technology-statement-2020">technology roadmap</a>” offers scant support for renewable energy, for reasons that do not stand up to scrutiny.</p>
<p>The technologies at the centre of the roadmap are:</p>
<ul>
<li>clean hydrogen</li>
<li>energy storage</li>
<li>low-carbon steel and aluminium</li>
<li>carbon capture and storage</li>
<li>soil carbon.</li>
</ul>
<p>Federal energy minister Angus Taylor said proven technologies such as solar and wind “are not the focus of the roadmap”. </p>
<p>Over the past week or so, Taylor has sought to justify the government’s lack of support for renewable energy. This includes <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/taylor-gas-17-sept/12672104">saying</a> two-thirds of Australia’s emissions now are produced “outside the electricity grid” – implying renewable energy has little role to play beyond the power sector. But I believe that claim is misleading.</p>
<h2>Renewables are versatile</h2>
<p>The graph below, <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-07/nggi-quarterly-update-dec-2018.pdf">based on official data</a>, shows the sources of Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2018. It reveals 82% of the national total stems from energy emissions. This does not just include electricity generation, but non-electrical heating, transport, and emissions from extracting, moving and using fossil fuels (or fugitive emissions).</p>
<p>Almost all these emissions can be <a href="https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/resource/decarbonisation-futures-solutions-actions-and-benchmarks-for-a-net-zero-emissions-australia/">avoided</a> by renewable energy, such as by:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>using electric heat pumps (such as reverse cycle air conditioners), solar hot water, and geothermal and solar thermal for heating</p></li>
<li><p>replacing gas and coal with renewable energy for heating in <a href="https://arena.gov.au/assets/2019/11/renewable-energy-options-for-industrial-process-heat.pdf">industrial processes</a> </p></li>
<li><p>a transition to <a href="https://thedriven.io/">electric vehicles</a> plus cycling and walking.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Technologies to support these uses are already commercially available.</p>
<p>Renewable electricity cannot directly replace fossil fuel use in activities such as air and sea transport, and industrial processes such as steel-making. But with a bit of development, it can be used to produce <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/green-steel-is-no-longer-a-fantasy/">“green” hydrogen</a> and ammonia, which promise to decarbonise those areas. </p>
<p>Hydrogen is not the emissions reduction panacea Taylor seems to suggest it is. However, together with energy efficiency, green hydrogen could substitute for Australia’s non-energy industrial emissions (6.4%) together with those from air and sea transport (about 5%). </p>
<p><iframe id="QCF0h" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QCF0h/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Hydrogen: a trojan horse?</h2>
<p>The roadmap prioritises “clean” hydrogen. This does not just refer to hydrogen produced using renewables — the government says hydrogen can be produced cleanly with coal and gas if resulting carbon is captured and stored. In fact, the plan claims fossil fuel-derived hydrogen “might be the lowest cost clean production methods in the short-term”.</p>
<p>Carbon capture and storage is an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/16/itd-be-wonderful-if-the-claims-made-about-carbon-capture-were-true">expensive, energy-wasting technology</a>. Despite federal governments having spent more than <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Environment_and_Communications/CarbonCaptureBill/Report/d02">A$1.3 billion</a> on the technology, a commercially viable plant has not come to fruition.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/earth-may-temporarily-pass-dangerous-1-5-warming-limit-by-2024-major-new-report-says-145450">Earth may temporarily pass dangerous 1.5℃ warming limit by 2024, major new report says</a>
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<p>The government will also establish Australia’s first regional hydrogen hub, at a cost of <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/taylor/media-releases/investment-new-energy-technologies">A$70 million</a>, to “scale-up demand and take advantage of the advancements in this low emissions, high powered source of energy”.</p>
<p>Almost all the proposed locations are close to coal mines or gas field, suggesting the government is preparing to wager big on hydrogen from fossil fuels.</p>
<p>In fact, the government’s plans on hydrogen (and associated steel and aluminium production), as well as carbon capture, may all lock in fossil fuel use for decades. This outcome is completely at odds with what’s needed to address the <a href="https://theconversation.com/earth-may-temporarily-pass-dangerous-1-5-warming-limit-by-2024-major-new-report-says-145450">climate emergency</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A steelworks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/9368/original/943kp32r-1333588613.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/9368/original/943kp32r-1333588613.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/9368/original/943kp32r-1333588613.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/9368/original/943kp32r-1333588613.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/9368/original/943kp32r-1333588613.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/9368/original/943kp32r-1333588613.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/9368/original/943kp32r-1333588613.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Steel made from renewables-derived hydrogen will substantially reduce emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Renewable energy: a market failure</h2>
<p>The Morrison government <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/taylor/media-releases/investment-new-energy-technologies">says</a> solar panels and wind farms “are now clearly commercially viable and have graduated from the need for government subsidies”. The roadmap classifies renewables as mature technologies, giving them low priority.</p>
<p>The government intends only to invest in such mature technologies “where there is a clear market failure, like a shortage of dispatchable generation, or where these investments secure jobs in key industries.”</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/morrison-government-lays-down-five-technologies-for-its-clean-energy-investment-146584">Morrison government lays down five technologies for its clean energy investment</a>
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<p>But an existing market failure means the future of wind and solar farms is by no means assured. <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/wind-and-solar-farms-face-more-cutbacks-due-to-new-network-constraints-42800/">Congestion</a> on transmission lines is limiting renewables growth. More infrastructure is urgently <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/four-key-steps-to-take-australia-towards-100-per-cent-renewable-electricity-29993/">needed</a> to connect renewable energy to the grid, and transmit it where required. </p>
<p>Federal funding is also needed urgently to help the states create renewable energy zones, as <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/isp/2020/final-2020-integrated-system-plan.pdf">recommended by</a> the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). These areas would involve the coordinated development of grid infrastructure, such as transmission lines, in places with big renewable energy potential.</p>
<p>Yet the government package doesn’t prioritise these essential measures – and markets will not build them.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A solar farm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359299/original/file-20200922-24-1urwezk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359299/original/file-20200922-24-1urwezk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359299/original/file-20200922-24-1urwezk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359299/original/file-20200922-24-1urwezk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359299/original/file-20200922-24-1urwezk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359299/original/file-20200922-24-1urwezk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359299/original/file-20200922-24-1urwezk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The government must invest more to integrate renewable energy into the grid.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Reason to hope</h2>
<p>Amid the economic downturn brought on by COVID-19, there were high hopes the Morrison government would invest in a green-led recovery. While its roadmap contains a few bright spots, such as a focus on energy storage, overall it is not the emissions-busting plan Australia needed.</p>
<p>But there is reason for hope. In the absence of federal government leadership on emissions reduction, others are stepping up with ideas. The <a href="https://bze.org.au/wp-content/uploads/BZE-Million-Jobs-Plan_FINAL_web.pdf">Million Jobs Plan</a>, for example, envisages investment in zero-emissions technologies that could create more than a million new jobs in Australia over five years. The plan, by think tank Beyond Zero Emissions, has been backed by Atlassian co-founder Mike Cannon-Brookes and senior business leaders. <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Climate-Council_AlphaBeta-Clean-Jobs-Plan-200720.pdf">Other</a> groups have proposed similarly promising <a href="https://assets.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/documents/advocacy-initiatives/A-Clean-Recovery.pdf">plans</a>.</p>
<p>The government’s latest energy plans are a failure of logic. An economic recovery that moves Australia far beyond fossil fuels is the way forward environmentally, socially and economically.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-dose-of-reality-morrison-governments-new-1-9-billion-techno-fix-for-climate-change-is-a-small-step-146341">'A dose of reality': Morrison government's new $1.9 billion techno-fix for climate change is a small step</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146352/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Diesendorf does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The government’s latest energy plans are a failure of logic, and will lock in fossil fuel use for decades.Mark Diesendorf, Honorary Associate Professor, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1467052020-09-22T12:17:13Z2020-09-22T12:17:13ZMalcolm Turnbull condemns Scott Morrison’s ‘gas, gas, gas’ song as ‘a fantasy’<p>Malcolm Turnbull has launched a swingeing attack on Scott Morrison’s gas-led recovery, labelling his threat to build a gas-fired power station “crazy stuff”, and his idea of gas producing a cheap energy boom “a fantasy”.</p>
<p>The former prime minister also claimed Morrison’s refusal to embrace a 2050 net zero emissions target was “absolutely” at odds with the Paris climate agreement. “That was part of the deal,” Turnbull said.</p>
<p>Morrison at the weekend would not commit to a 2050 target – endorsed by business, farming and other groups in Australia and very many countries – although he said it was achievable.</p>
<p>Turnbull also declared that Energy Minister Angus Taylor – who on Tuesday delivered his technology investment roadmap for low emissions – didn’t believe most of what he was saying on energy.</p>
<p>“Angus has got quite a sophisticated understanding of the energy market, and he is speaking through the political side of his brain rather than the economic side,” Turnbull told the ABC.</p>
<p>The energy/climate war was pivotal in Turnbull’s fall from the prime ministership in 2018, and from the opposition leadership in 2009. While Morrison is totally safe in his job, the battle over energy policy on the conservative side of politics has not been put to rest, although the prime minister is banking on his elevation of gas satisfying his Liberal parliamentarians.</p>
<p>Morrison’s gas policy, which the government spruiks as underpinning a manufacturing revival, is being seen as a walk away from coal.</p>
<p>It includes a threat to build a gas-fired power station in the Hunter region if private enterprise does not fill the gap left by the coming closure of the Liddell coal-fired station.</p>
<p>The debate about gas has produced an unexpected unity ticket between Turnbull and former resources minister, the Nationals Matt Canavan, on one key point - both insist gas prices won’t be as low as the policy assumes. </p>
<p>But Turnbull and Canavan go in opposite directions in their energy prescriptions – Turnbull strongly backs renewables and Canavan is a voice for coal. </p>
<p>While acknowledging gas had a role “as a peaking fuel”, Turnbull dismissed any prospect of a “gas nirvana”. </p>
<p>“There is no cheap gas on the east coast of Australia. It is cheap at the moment because there’s a global recession and pandemic and oil prices are down, but the equilibrium price of gas is too high to make it a cheap form of generating electricity.”</p>
<p>“The cheap electricity opportunities come from wind and solar, backed by storage, batteries and pumped hydro, and then with gas playing a role but it’s essentially a peaking role,” Turnbull said.</p>
<p>Writing in the Australian, Canavan said the Morrison gas plan would “keep the lights on but it is unlikely to lower energy prices to the levels needed to bring manufacturing back to Australia.</p>
<p>"If we were serious about getting [energy] prices down as low as possible, we would focus on the energy sources in which we have a natural advantage, and that is not gas. We face gas shortages in the years ahead.”</p>
<p>Former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce said about the government’s power station threat, that it would be “peculiar” to build a gas-fired plant “in the middle of a coal field”.</p>
<p>Turnbull said of last week’s announcement, “I’m not going to sing the song but it’s a gas, gas, gas”.</p>
<p>The roadmap was “gas one minute, carbon capture and storage the next”.</p>
<p>“What you need is to set out some basic parameters, which deal with reliability, affordability and emissions reduction, and then let the market get to work. That’s what Liberal governments should do. Unfortunately, it’s just one random intervention after another,” Turnbull said.</p>
<p>He lamented that, for whatever reasons, there was a “body of opinion on the right of Australian politics in the Liberal party and the National party, the Murdoch press, which still clings to this fantasy that coal is best and if we can’t have coal we’ll burn gas – I mean, it’s bonkers. The way to cheaper electricity is renewables plus storage, which is why the big storage plan that we got started, Snowy 2, is so important.”</p>
<p>Turnbull said that unlike his own situation when PM, Morrison was “in a position with no internal opposition”. “Now is the time to deliver an integrated, coherent energy and climate policy which is what the whole energy sector has been crying out for.”</p>
<p>Taylor told the National Press Club the government’s determination to get the gap filled, whether by private investment or a government power station, when the Liddell coal fired station closes in 2023 “is partly about reliability, but it’s primarily about affordability.</p>
<p>"If you take that much capacity out of the market, it’s a huge amount in a short period of time. We saw what happened with Hazelwood. We saw very, very sharp increases in prices. We’re not prepared to accept that.”</p>
<p>Asked whether the government’s resistance to committing to the 2050 target was more about appeasing the right wing of the coalition rather than about the target itself, Taylor said: “Our focus is on our 2030 target in the Paris agreement…and in a few years time we will have to extend that out to 2035 …</p>
<p>"What we’re not going to do is impose a target that’s going to impose costs on the economy, destroy jobs, and stop investment. The Paris commitment, globally, is to net zero in the second half of the century and we would like that to happen as soon as possible.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146705/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Malcolm Turnbull has launched a swingeing attack on Scott Morrison’s gas-led recovery.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1465842020-09-21T12:31:10Z2020-09-21T12:31:10ZMorrison government lays down five technologies for its clean energy investment<p>The Morrison government will tell its refocused clean energy agencies and the clean energy regulator to give priority to investment in five low emissions technologies and report how they are accelerating them.</p>
<p>The technologies are clean hydrogen, energy storage, low carbon steel and aluminium, carbon capture and storage, and soil carbon.</p>
<p>The government last week announced it would legislate to extend the remit of the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) and the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) beyond renewables.</p>
<p>On Tuesday it will indicate the “priority low emissions technologies” they, and the Clean Energy Regulator (CER) – which is responsible for administering the government’s emissions reduction fund – should concentrate on.</p>
<p>Energy Minister Angus Taylor, in a Tuesday speech on low emissions technology, will say the government is putting technologies into four categories. Apart from the priority low emissions technologies, the other categories are emerging and enabling technologies, “watching brief” technologies, and mature technologies.</p>
<p>Priority technologies “are those expected to have transformational impacts here and globally and are not yet mature,” Taylor says in his speech, released ahead of delivery.</p>
<p>“They are priorities where government investments can make a difference in reducing costs and improving technology readiness.</p>
<p>"Technologies where we, as a government, will not only prioritise our investments but where we will streamline regulation and legislation to encourage investment.</p>
<p>"Investors will have confidence that identified priority technologies are of long-term strategic importance for the government.”</p>
<p>Emerging and enabling technologies, such as those for energy efficiency and infrastructure for electric and hydrogen vehicle charging/ refuelling, will also be included in the mandate of the government’s investment agencies.</p>
<p>In the “watching brief” category are those that are for the longer run or are longer odds, such as direct air capture and small nuclear modular reactors. (There is a moratorium on nuclear power in Australia at the moment but the government is watching developments in Europe and the United Kingdom.)</p>
<p>Notably, key renewables and key fossil fuels are in the “mature” category, which includes coal, gas, solar and wind.</p>
<p>The government says it will only invest in them where there is market failure or where such investments secure jobs in key industries.</p>
<p>Last week Scott Morrison threatened to build a gas power station in the Hunter region if private investors left a supply gap for when the Liddell coal-fired station closes, while he also indicated renewables could now stand on their own feet.</p>
<p>Taylor will release an overarching technology roadmap, which he says “arms the government with "four levers to enact change”: an investment lever, a legislative lever, a regulator lever, and international co-operation and collaboration.</p>
<p>“The roadmap will guide the deployment of the $18 billion that will be invested, including through the CEFC, ARENA, the Climate Solutions Fund [which will evolve from the Emissions Reduction Fund] and the CER.</p>
<p>"This will turn that into at least $50 billion through the private sector, state governments, research institutions and other publicly funded bodies. That will drive around 130 000 jobs to 2030,” Taylor says.</p>
<p>The legislative level “is about flexibility and accountability.</p>
<p>"We don’t currently have that. Our agencies are restricted by legislation and regulation to invest in the new technologies of 2010 not the emerging technologies of 2020.”</p>
<p>The regulator lever “is about enablement”.</p>
<p>Taylor says the government’s plan is not based on ideology but “balance and outcomes”.</p>
<p>The government is announcing several “stretch goals” (see table for details). Stretch goals are the point at which new technologies become competitive with existing alternatives. The government announced the hydrogen stretch goal earlier in the year.</p>
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<p>“Getting these technologies right will strengthen our economy and create jobs,” Taylor says.</p>
<p>“This will significantly reduce global emissions, across sectors that emit 45 billion tonnes annually.</p>
<p>"Australia alone will avoid 250 million tonnes of emissions by 2040.”</p>
<p>He says “Australia can’t and shouldn’t damage its economy to reduce emissions”.</p>
<p><iframe id="gWKSJ" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gWKSJ/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146584/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Morrison government will tell its refocused clean energy agencies and the clean energy regulator to give priority to investment in five low emissions technologies and report how they are accelerating them.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1449412020-09-20T19:43:45Z2020-09-20T19:43:45ZThe Morrison government wants to suck CO₂ out of the atmosphere. Here are 7 ways to do it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358757/original/file-20200918-22-1frm1pp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5265%2C3504&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Federal Energy Minister Angus Taylor is on Tuesday <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/17/coalition-to-divert-renewable-energy-funding-away-from-wind-and-solar">expected to</a> <a href="https://www.npc.org.au/speaker/2020/719-angus-taylor">outline</a> the Morrison government’s first Low Emissions Technology Statement, plotting Australia’s way forward on climate action. It’s <a href="https://consult.industry.gov.au/climate-change/technology-investment-roadmap/supporting_documents/technologyinvestmentroadmapdiscussionpaper.pdf">likely</a> to include “negative emissions” technologies, which remove carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the air.</p>
<p>The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-4/">says</a> negative emissions technologies will be needed to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C. In other words, just cutting emissions is not enough – we must also take existing greenhouse gases from the air.</p>
<p>Last week, the government broadened the remit of the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) and the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC). It flagged negative emissions technologies, such as soil carbon, as one avenue for investment. </p>
<p>Some negative emissions ventures are operating in Australia at a small scale, including <a href="https://www.resourcesandgeoscience.nsw.gov.au/investors/coal-innovation-nsw/research-projects/alternative-storage-of-captured-carbon-dioxide">carbon capture</a>, <a href="https://www.greeningaustralia.org.au">reforestation</a> and <a href="https://www.cefc.com.au/case-studies/biotech-start-up-aims-to-lift-soil-organic-carbon-and-boost-farm-productivity/">soil carbon management</a>. Here, we examine seven ways to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere, including their pros and cons.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358907/original/file-20200920-20-tzuk2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphic showing seven negative emissions technologies." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358907/original/file-20200920-20-tzuk2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358907/original/file-20200920-20-tzuk2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358907/original/file-20200920-20-tzuk2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358907/original/file-20200920-20-tzuk2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358907/original/file-20200920-20-tzuk2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358907/original/file-20200920-20-tzuk2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358907/original/file-20200920-20-tzuk2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Graphic showing seven negative emissions technologies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Anders Claassens</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. Managing soil carbon</h2>
<p>Up to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.14054">150 billion tonnes</a> of soil carbon has been lost globally since farming began to replace natural forests and grasslands. Improved land management could store or “sequester” up to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.14878">nine billion tonnes</a> of CO₂ each year. It could also improve <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.14054">soil health</a>.</p>
<p>Soil carbon can be built through methods such as:</p>
<ul>
<li>“<a href="https://www.vicnotill.com.au/regenerative-farming/no-till-farming-systems">no-till</a>” farming, using techniques that don’t disturb soil</li>
<li>planting <a href="https://acsess.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.2134/agronj2016.12.0735">cover crops</a>, which protect soil between normal cropping periods </li>
<li>grazing livestock on <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/sr/SR08104">perennial pastures</a>, which last longer than annual plants</li>
<li>applying lime to encourage plant growth</li>
<li>using compost and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10705-018-9934-6">manure</a>.</li>
</ul>
<p>It’s important to remember though, that carbon can be hard to store in soils for long periods. This is because microbes consume organic matter, which releases carbon back to the atmosphere. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Tilled fields" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358760/original/file-20200918-20-g2pbfl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358760/original/file-20200918-20-g2pbfl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358760/original/file-20200918-20-g2pbfl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358760/original/file-20200918-20-g2pbfl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358760/original/file-20200918-20-g2pbfl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358760/original/file-20200918-20-g2pbfl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358760/original/file-20200918-20-g2pbfl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Intensive farming has led to global loss of soil carbon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. Biochar</h2>
<p>Biochar is a charcoal-like material produced from organic matter such as green waste or straw. It is added to soil to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3276">boost carbon stores</a>, by promoting <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ismej2016187/">microbial activity</a> and <a href="https://www.ndsu.edu/soilhealth/?page_id=404#:%7E:text=Aggregation%20%E2%80%93%20Arrangement%20of%20primary%20soil,matter%20and%20through%20particle%20associations.&text=Each%20aggregate%20is%20made%20up,organic%20matter%20between%20soil%20particles.">aggregation</a> (soil clumps) which prevents organic plant matter breaking down and releasing carbon.</p>
<p>Biochar has been used by <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s001140000193">indigenous people in the Amazon</a> to increase food production. More than 14,000 biochar studies have been published since 2005. This includes <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/sr/SR10009">work by Australian researchers</a> showing how biochar reacts with soil minerals, microbes and plants to improve soil and stimulate plant growth.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/earth-may-temporarily-pass-dangerous-1-5-warming-limit-by-2024-major-new-report-says-145450">Earth may temporarily pass dangerous 1.5℃ warming limit by 2024, major new report says</a>
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<p>On average, biochar increases crop yields by about <a href="https://europepmc.org/article/med/32019022">16%</a> and halves emissions of nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas. The production of biochar releases gases that can generate renewable heat and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652618313544?via%3Dihub">electricity</a>. Research suggests that globally, biochar could store <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms1053?page=20">up to 4.6 billion tonnes</a> of CO₂ each year.</p>
<p>However its potential depends on the availability of organic material and land on which to grow it. Also, the type of biochar used must be suitable for the site, or crop yields may fall.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A handful of biochar." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352422/original/file-20200812-14-1c2ur8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352422/original/file-20200812-14-1c2ur8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352422/original/file-20200812-14-1c2ur8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352422/original/file-20200812-14-1c2ur8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352422/original/file-20200812-14-1c2ur8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352422/original/file-20200812-14-1c2ur8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352422/original/file-20200812-14-1c2ur8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Added to soil, biochar increases carbon stores.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Reforestation</h2>
<p>Planting trees is the simplest way to take CO₂ from the atmosphere. Reforestation is limited only by land availability and environmental constraints to growth. </p>
<p>Reforestation could sequester up to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.14878">ten billion tonnes a year</a> of CO₂. However, carbon sequestered through reforestation is vulnerable to loss. For example, last summer’s devastating bushfires released around <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/21/summers-bushfires-released-more-carbon-dioxide-than-australia-does-in-a-year#:%7E:text=Australia's%20devastating%20bushfire%20season%20is,according%20to%20a%20government%20estimate.&text=It%20is%20estimated%2096%25%20of,absorbed%20in%20regrowth%20by%202019">830 million tonnes</a> CO₂. </p>
<h2>4. Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)</h2>
<p>Plant material can be burned for energy – known as bioenergy. In a BECCS system, the resulting CO₂ is captured and stored deep underground.</p>
<p>Currently, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is only viable at large scale, and opportunities for storage are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0306261916317482">limited</a>. Only a few CCS facilities operate <a href="https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/BECCS-Perspective_FINAL_PDF.pdf">internationally</a>. </p>
<p>BECCS has the potential to sequester <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.14878">11 billion tonnes</a> annually. But this is limited by availability of material to burn – which in theory could come from forestry and crop waste, and purpose-grown plants. </p>
<p>The large-scale deployment of CCS will also have to <a href="https://pubs.rsc.org/ko/content/articlehtml/2018/ee/c7ee02342a">overcome</a> barriers such as high costs, challenges in dealing with leaks, and determining who takes long-term responsibility for the stored carbon. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A bioenergy facility" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358761/original/file-20200918-14-xwt3wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358761/original/file-20200918-14-xwt3wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358761/original/file-20200918-14-xwt3wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358761/original/file-20200918-14-xwt3wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358761/original/file-20200918-14-xwt3wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358761/original/file-20200918-14-xwt3wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358761/original/file-20200918-14-xwt3wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bioenergy has big potential but is limited by the amount of material available to burn.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>5. Enhanced weathering of rocks</h2>
<p>Silicate rocks naturally capture and store CO₂ from the atmosphere when they weather due to rain and other natural processes. This capturing can be accelerated through “<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41477-018-0108-y">enhanced weathering</a>” – crushing rock and spreading it on land.</p>
<p>The preferred rock type for this method is basalt – nutrient-rich and abundant in Australia and elsewhere. A recent <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.14878">study</a> estimated enhanced weathering could store up to four billion tonnes of CO₂ globally each year.</p>
<p>However low rainfall in many parts of Australia limits the rate of carbon capture via basalt weathering. </p>
<h2>6. Direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS)</h2>
<p>Direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) uses chemicals that bond to ambient air to remove CO₂. After capture, the CO₂ can be injected underground or used in products such as building materials and plastics.</p>
<p>DACCS is in early stages of commercialisation, with <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/direct-air-capture">few plants</a> operating globally. In theory, its potential is unlimited. However major barriers include high costs, and the large amount of energy needed to operate large fans required in the process.</p>
<h2>7. Ocean fertilisation and alkalinisation</h2>
<p>The ocean absorbs around <a href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/global/images/carbonbudget/Infographic_Emissions2019.jpg">nine billion tonnes</a> of CO₂ from the air each year.</p>
<p>The uptake can be enhanced by fertilisation – adding iron to stimulate growth of marine algae, similar to reforestation on land. The ocean can also take up more CO₂ if we add alkaline materials, such as silicate minerals or lime.</p>
<p>However ocean fertilisation is seen as a <a href="https://www.cbd.int/doc/publications/cbd-ts-45-en.pdf">risk to marine life</a>, and will be challenging to regulate in international waters.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Liddell coal-fired power station" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358908/original/file-20200920-18-vr6owc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358908/original/file-20200920-18-vr6owc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358908/original/file-20200920-18-vr6owc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358908/original/file-20200920-18-vr6owc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358908/original/file-20200920-18-vr6owc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358908/original/file-20200920-18-vr6owc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358908/original/file-20200920-18-vr6owc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Negative emissions technologies will be needed to address climate change, but deep emissions reductions are the highest priority.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Himbrechts/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Looking ahead to a zero-carbon world</h2>
<p>The foreshadowed government investment in negative emissions technologies is a positive step, and will help to overcome some of the challenges we’ve described. Each of the technologies we outlined has the potential to help mitigate climate change, and some offer additional benefits.</p>
<p>But all have limitations, and alone they will not solve the climate crisis. Deep emissions reduction across the economy will also be required.</p>
<p><em>Correction: a previous version of this article said biochar could store up to 4.6 million tonnes of CO₂ each year. The correct figure is 4.6 billion tonnes.</em></p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-dose-of-reality-morrison-governments-new-1-9-billion-techno-fix-for-climate-change-is-a-small-step-146341">'A dose of reality': Morrison government's new $1.9 billion techno-fix for climate change is a small step</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Annette Cowie is Principal Research Scientist in the NSW Department of Primary Industries, Climate Branch. She receives funding from the International Energy Agency Bioenergy Technology Collaboration Program. Annette is an adviser to the Australia New Zealand Biochar Industry Group.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Han Weng is a member of Soil Science Australia. He is a researcher at the University of Queensland. His current project on soil carbon is funded by the Grains Research and Development Corporation (GRDC).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lukas Van Zwieten is a Senior Principal Research Scientist in the Soil and Water Research Unit with the NSW Department of Primary Industries. He is also Director of Wollongbar Primary Industries Institute and a Program Leader with the Soil CRC. He is an Adjunct Professor at Southern Cross University and the Australian Rivers Institute at Griffith University. He receives external funding from the Soil CRC, Sugar Research Australia, GRDC and CRDC. He is on the Science Committee for the International Biochar Initiative. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Joseph is a member of the Australian New Zealand Biochar Industries Group. The Universities where I work have received grants from both state and federal governments and from companies for the development and testing of biochars.
I also assist companies and farmers develop fit for purpose biochars and equipment to make this biochars</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wolfram Buss is a researcher at the Australian National University. Parts of his work is funded by SoilCQuest, a non-for profit organisation. He also holds visiting fellowships at the University of Edinburgh (UK) and the University of Hohenheim (Germany).</span></em></p>Energy Minister Angus Taylor is this week expected to release the government’s first Low Emissions Technology Statement. It’s likely to include ways to remove CO₂ from the air – but do they work?Annette Cowie, Adjunct Professor, University of New EnglandHan Weng, Research academic, The University of QueenslandLukas Van Zwieten, Adjunct Professor, Southern Cross UniversityStephen Joseph, Visiting Professor, School of Material Science and Engineering, UNSW SydneyWolfram Buss, Postdoctoral fellow, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1464832020-09-18T03:23:46Z2020-09-18T03:23:46ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on the government’s energy policy, a gas-led recovery, unemployment, and the economy<p>University of Canberra Professorial Fellow Michelle Grattan and University of Canberra Assistant Professor Caroline Fisher discuss the week in politics.</p>
<p>This week the pair discuss the numerous energy announcements made by the government, including a gas-led recovery, $1.9 billion for new and emerging energy technologies, as well as the likely outcomes from the national cabinet concerning the cap of returning international Australians, and the latest OECD report.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>University of Canberra Professorial Fellow Michelle Grattan and University of Canberra Assistant Professor Caroline Fisher discuss the week in politics.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1463282020-09-16T09:17:38Z2020-09-16T09:17:38ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Angus Taylor on the ‘gas-fired’ recovery<p>The Coalition is having yet another go at crafting an energy policy. Faced with the huge economic challenges presented by COVID, the government this week announced its “gas-fired recovery”.</p>
<p>But the policy is already under fire from both environmentalists and coal advocates, and the energy sector warns it could discourage investors. </p>
<p>Part of the announcement was a threat – the government will build a gas generator in the Hunter Valley if the private sector fails to fill the gap in power supply that will be created by the closure of the Liddell coal-fired power plant. </p>
<p>This dramatic form of intervention would seem very much against the Liberal grain.</p>
<p>But Energy Minister Angus Taylor says: “Our focus is on good competitive markets. That’s a Liberal Party philosophy. </p>
<p>"Our belief is in the importance of affordable, reliable energy - we want the private sector to deliver it. That’s their obligation to their customers, we believe. But if they don’t, we will step in.”</p>
<p>Despite the focus on gas, Taylor said renewables would play their role in the future. “I’ve always been enormously enthusiastic about renewables, but I also see that what we need is a mix. </p>
<p>"And when people talk about a single technology as the answer to all our problems, I am sceptical.</p>
<p>"I’m not sceptical of balance and having a range of different technologies…a balance that includes hydro, solar and wind, gas, coal, batteries starting to play a role, particularly over the very short term, to help support, secure, the market.”</p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/politics-with-michelle-grattan/id703425900?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233721/original/file-20180827-75984-1gfuvlr.png" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL2F1L3BvZGNhc3RzL3BvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbWljaGVsbGUtZ3JhdHRhbi5yc3M"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation-4/politics-with-michelle-grattan"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> <a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/Politics-with-Michelle-Grattan-p227852/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://radiopublic.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-WRElBZ"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/5NkaSQoUERalaLBQAqUOcC"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237984/original/file-20180925-149976-1ks72uy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" width="268" height="82"></a> </p>
<h2>Additional audio</h2>
<p><a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score/Lee_Rosevere_-_The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score_-_10_A_List_of_Ways_to_Die">A List of Ways to Die</a>, Lee Rosevere, from Free Music Archive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146328/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan discusses the government's recently announced energy policy with Minister for Energy Angus TaylorMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1461542020-09-14T12:30:49Z2020-09-14T12:30:49ZMorrison government threatens to use Snowy Hydro to build gas generator, as it outlines ‘gas-fired recovery’ plan<p>The Morrison government has threatened to use Snowy Hydro to build a gas generator in the Hunter Valley if the electricity sector fails to fill the gap left by the scheduled closure of the Liddell power plant in 2023.</p>
<p>The threat comes as the government released its plan to place gas at the centre of Australia’s economic recovery, with a package of measures to “reset” the east coast market and “unlock” supply.</p>
<p>Scott Morrison and Energy Minister Angus Taylor said the electricity sector had to deliver 1,000 megawatts of new dispatchable energy to replace the Liddell power station before it closed.</p>
<p>“The Government will step up and back a new gas power plant in the Hunter Valley if the sector doesn’t replace Liddell’s capacity,” they said in an ultimatum to the sector.</p>
<p>“Snowy Hydro Limited is developing options to build a gas generator in the Hunter Valley at Kurri Kurri should the market not deliver what consumers need.”</p>
<p>The government had a long running battle with AGL over its determination to close the Liddell coal-fired power station, trying unsuccessfully to force it to abandon the decision.</p>
<p>Morrison and Taylor said the government’s Liddell taskforce had found closing the plant without adequate dispatchable replacement capacity could mean a 30% price rise over two years, or $20 per megawatt hour to $80 in 2024 and up to $105 per MWH by 2030.</p>
<p>Morrison said such rises were unacceptable – they would be a huge hit to families, businesses and job creating industries in NSW if the energy generated by Liddell wasn’t replaced.</p>
<p>“We won’t risk the affordability and reliability of the NSW energy system and will step in unless the industry steps up.</p>
<p>"To ensure we do not have a scenario without replacement, the government is giving the private sector until the end of April 2021 to reach final investment decisions on 1000 MW of dispatchable capacity, with a commitment for generation in time for summer 2023-24.”</p>
<p>In its announcement of its gas plan, the government says its proposed multiple initiatives will deliver affordable and reliable energy for households, business and industry, and shore up the energy grid’s reliability as renewables form an increasingly larger part of the energy market.</p>
<p>One part of the plan is the creation of an Australian Gas Hub at Wallumbilla in Queensland to bring users and suppliers closer together, delivering a transparent liquid gas trading system.</p>
<p>This is modelled on the Henry Hub located in Louisiana which is a distribution point on a natural gas pipeline system. It serves as the official delivery location for futures contracts.</p>
<p>The concept of a gas-led recovery is highly controversial. It has been strongly pushed by the chair of the government’s national COVID-19 commission Nev Power, and the government argues that gas is much lower in emissions than coal fired power.</p>
<p>But the promotion of gas is resisted by environmentalists, given it is a fossil fuel, and questioned by some in the investment community who doubt it will be possible to achieve gas prices low enough to make a major economic difference.</p>
<p>Outlining the “gas-fired recovery” plan Morrison, Taylor and Resources Minister Keith Pitt said: “The government wants the private sector to step-up and make timely investments in the gas market.”</p>
<p>But “if the private sector fails to act, the government will step in – as it has done for electricity transmission – to back these nation building projects. This may include through streamlining approvals, underwriting projects or the establishment of a special purpose vehicle with a capped government contribution”.</p>
<p>The government says the east coast market needs change because it is not delivering internationally competitive prices for Australian businesses and households.</p>
<p>International prices have fallen but this has not been reflected in lower long term contract offers for Australian customers.
There are also fears of a supply shortfall in the medium term.</p>
<p>Under the measures, new gas supply targets will be set with states and territories and a potential “use it or lose it” requirement will be enforced on gas licences.</p>
<p>The government aims to unlock five new gas basins beginning with the Beetaloo Basin in the Northern Territory and the North Bowen and Galilee Basis in Queensland. This will cost $28.3 million for the plans.</p>
<p>To avoid supply shortfalls, there will be new agreements with the three east coast LNG exporters with strengthened commitments on price.</p>
<p>The government will also “explore options” for a prospective gas reservation scheme “to ensure Australian gas users get the energy they need at a reasonable price”.</p>
<p>To improve the gas transport network the government will identify priority pipelines and critical infrastructure for a National Gas Infrastructure Plan (NGIP) worth $10.9 million . This will also highlight where the government will step in if private investors do not.</p>
<p>The regulations on pipeline infrastructure will be reformed to increase competition and transparency; competition will be further promoted by kick starting work on a secondary pipeline capacity market.</p>
<p>The government will work with the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission to review the calculation of the LNG netback price which provides a guide on the export parity prices.</p>
<p>It will also use the NGIP to develop customer hubs to boost competition and transparency for customers.</p>
<p>HERE ARE THE GOVERNMENT’S DETAILED MEASURES.</p>
<p>It will get more gas into the market by:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Setting new gas supply targets with states and territories and enforce potential “use-it or lose-it” requirements on gas licenses</p></li>
<li><p>Unlocking five key gas basins starting with the Beetaloo Basin in the NT and the North Bowen and Galilee Basin in Queensland, at a cost of $28.3 million for the plans</p></li>
<li><p>Avoiding any supply shortfall in the gas market with new agreements with the three east coast LNG exporters that will also strengthen price commitments</p></li>
<li><p>Supporting CSIRO’s Gas Industry Social and Environmental Research Alliance with $13.7 million</p></li>
<li><p>Exploring options for a prospective gas reservation scheme to ensure Australian gas users get the energy they need at a reasonable price.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>It will boost the gas transport network by:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Identifying priority pipelines and critical infrastructure as part of an inaugural National Gas Infrastructure Plan (NGIP) worth $10.9 million that will also highlight where the government will step in if the private sector doesn’t invest</p></li>
<li><p>Reforming the regulations on pipeline infrastructure to promote competition and transparency</p></li>
<li><p>Improving pipeline access and competition by kick-starting work on a dynamic secondary pipeline capacity market.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>To better empower gas consumers, it will:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Establish an Australian Gas Hub at our most strategically located and connected gas trading hub at Wallumbilla in Queensland to deliver an open, transparent and liquid gas trading system</p></li>
<li><p>Level the negotiating playing field for gas producers and consumers through a voluntary industry-led code of conduct, to be delivered by February 2021</p></li>
<li><p>Ensure Australians are paying the right price for their gas by working with the ACCC to review the calculation of the LNG netback price which provides a guide on the export parity prices</p></li>
<li><p>Use the NGIP to develop customer hubs or a book-build program that will give gas customers a more transparent and competitive process for meeting their needs.</p></li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146154/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Morrison government has threatened to use Snowy Hydro to build a gas generator in the Hunter Valley if the electricity sector fails to fill the gap left by the scheduled closure of the Liddell power plant in 2023.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.