tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/autonomous-vehicles-1007/articlesAutonomous vehicles – The Conversation2024-02-14T13:24:58Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2142082024-02-14T13:24:58Z2024-02-14T13:24:58ZBringing AI up to speed – autonomous auto racing promises safer driverless cars on the road<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575049/original/file-20240212-18-4epn1w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C2%2C1936%2C1165&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An autonomous race car built by the Technical University of Munich prepares to pass the University of Virginia's entrant.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cavalier Autonomous Racing, University of Virginia</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The excitement of auto racing comes from split-second decisions and daring passes by fearless drivers. Imagine that scene, but without the driver – the car alone, guided by the invisible hand of artificial intelligence. Can the rush of racing unfold without a driver steering the course? It turns out that it can. </p>
<p>Enter autonomous racing, a field that’s not just about high-speed competition but also pushing the boundaries of what autonomous vehicles can achieve and improving their safety.</p>
<p>Over a century ago, at the dawn of automobiles, as society shifted from horse-drawn to motor-powered vehicles, there was <a href="https://doi.org/10.4271/890812">public doubt</a> about the safety and reliability of the new technology. Motorsport racing was organized to <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/duryea-motor-wagon-wins-first-car-race-in-u-s">showcase the technological performance</a> and safety of these horseless carriages. Similarly, autonomous racing is the modern arena to prove the reliability of autonomous vehicle technology as driverless cars begin to hit the streets.</p>
<p>Autonomous racing’s high-speed trials mirror the real-world challenges that autonomous vehicles face on streets: adjusting to unexpected changes and reacting in fractions of a second. Mastering these challenges on the track, where speeds are higher and reaction times shorter, leads to safer autonomous vehicles on the road. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Autonomous race cars pass, or ‘overtake,’ others on the Las Vegas Motor Speedway track.</span></figcaption>
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<p>I am a computer science professor who <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=bj_imaYAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">studies artificial intelligence, robotics and autonomous vehicles</a>, and I lead the <a href="https://autonomousracing.dev/">Cavalier Autonomous Racing</a> team at the University of Virginia. The team competes in the <a href="https://www.indyautonomouschallenge.com/">Indy Autonomous Challenge</a>, a global contest where universities pit fully autonomous Indy race cars against each other. Since its 2021 inception, the event has drawn top international teams to prestigious circuits like the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. The field, marked by both rivalry and teamwork, shows that collective problem-solving drives advances in autonomous vehicle safety.</p>
<p>At the Indy Autonomous Challenge passing competition held at the 2024 Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas in January 2024, our Cavalier team clinched second place and hit speeds of 143 mph (230 kilometers per hour) while autonomously overtaking another race car, affirming its status as a leading American team. TUM Autonomous Motorsport from the Technical University of Munich <a href="https://www.indyautonomouschallenge.com/tum-autonomous-motorsports-wins-third-annual-autonomous-challenge-ces">won the event</a>.</p>
<h2>Pint-size beginnings</h2>
<p>The field of autonomous racing didn’t begin with race cars on professional race tracks but with miniature cars at robotics conferences. In 2015, my colleagues and I engineered a 1/10 scale autonomous race car. We transformed a remote-controlled car into a small but powerful research and educational tool, which I named <a href="https://www.f1tenth.racing/">F1tenth</a>, playing on the name of the traditional Formula One, or F1, race car. The F1tenth platform is now used by over 70 institutions worldwide to construct their miniaturized autonomous racers. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://f1tenth.org/">F1tenth Autonomous Racing Grand Prix</a> is now a marquee event at robotics conferences where teams from across the planet gather, each wielding vehicles that are identical in hardware and sensors, to engage in what is essentially an intense “battle of algorithms.” Victory on the track is claimed not by raw power but by the advanced AI algorithms’ control of the cars. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">These race cars are small, but the challenges to autonomous driving are sizable.</span></figcaption>
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<p>F1tenth has also emerged as an engaging and accessible gateway for students to delve into robotics research. Over the years, I’ve reached thousands of students via my <a href="https://youtu.be/ZQg61UNbr7Q?si=Hhx9j_qZyVzOI2Tt">courses</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL868twsx7OjdnroeAUFVBGlKGnFGi9txc">online lecture series</a>, which explains the process of how to build, drive and autonomously race these vehicles.</p>
<h2>Getting real</h2>
<p>Today, the scope of our research has expanded significantly, advancing from small-scale models to <a href="https://www.indyautonomouschallenge.com/racecar">actual autonomous Indy cars</a> that compete at speeds of upward of 150 mph (241 kph), executing complex overtaking maneuvers with other autonomous vehicles on the racetrack. The cars are built on a modified version of the Indy NXT chassis and are outfitted with sensors and controllers to allow autonomous driving. <a href="https://www.dallara.it/en/dallara-usa/racing">Indy NXT race cars</a> are used in professional racing and are slightly smaller versions of the Indy cars made famous by the <a href="https://www.indianapolismotorspeedway.com/events/indy500">Indianapolis 500</a>.</p>
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<span class="caption">The Cavalier Autonomous Racing team stands behind their driverless race car.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cavalier Autonomous Racing, University of Virginia</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>The gritty reality of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/OJITS.2022.3181510">racing these advanced machines on real racetracks</a> pushes the boundaries of what autonomous vehicles can do. Autonomous racing takes the challenges of robotics and AI to new levels, requiring researchers to refine our understanding of how machines perceive their environment, make safe decisions and control complex maneuvers at a high speed where traditional methods begin to falter. </p>
<p>Precision is critical, and the margin for error in steering and acceleration is razor-thin, requiring a sophisticated grasp and exact mathematical description of the car’s <a href="https://proceedings.mlr.press/v229/ning23a.html">movement, aerodynamics and drivetrain system</a>. In addition, autonomous racing researchers create algorithms that use data from cameras, radar and <a href="https://www.autoweek.com/news/a36190274/what-lidar-is/">lidar</a>, which is like radar but with lasers instead of radio waves, to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/LRA.2022.3193496">steer around competitors and safely navigate</a> the high-speed and unpredictable racing environment. </p>
<p>My team has shared the world’s first <a href="https://registry.opendata.aws/racecar-dataset/">open dataset</a> for autonomous racing, inviting researchers everywhere to join in refining the algorithms that could help define the future of autonomous vehicles.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The data from the competitions is available for other researchers to use.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Crucible for autonomous vehicles</h2>
<p>More than just a technological showcase, autonomous racing is a critical research frontier. When autonomous systems can reliably function in these extreme conditions, they inherently possess a buffer when operating in the ordinary conditions of street traffic. </p>
<p>Autonomous racing is a testbed where competition spurs innovation, collaboration fosters growth, and AI-controlled cars racing to the finish line chart a course toward safer autonomous vehicles.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214208/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>My research has been funded by National Science Foundation, Commonwealth Cyber Initiative, U.S. Department of Transportation, and Leidos for the period 2018 to 2024. I am also a senior member of Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), and an Academic Advisory Council member for the Partners for Automated Vehicle Education (PAVE). </span></em></p>Artificial intelligence systems that can handle the pressure of high-speed auto racing could lead to driverless vehicles that can safely manage the morning commute.Madhur Behl, Associate Professor of Robotics and Artificial Intelligence, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2207632024-01-30T13:34:46Z2024-01-30T13:34:46ZWhy AI can’t replace air traffic controllers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570714/original/file-20240122-29-jlh3sm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3498%2C2330&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Control towers at airports are only the most visible parts of the complex national air traffic control system.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-american-airlines-airbus-a319-airplane-takes-off-past-news-photo/1246152990">Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After hours of routine operations, an air traffic controller gets a radio call from a small aircraft whose cockpit indicators can’t confirm that the plane’s landing gear is extended for landing. The controller arranges for the pilot to fly low by the tower so the controller can visually check the plane’s landing gear. All appears well. “It looks like your gear is down,” the controller tells the pilot.</p>
<p>The controller calls for the airport fire trucks to be ready just in case, and the aircraft circles back to land safely. Scenarios like this play out regularly. In the air traffic control system, everything must meet the highest levels of safety, but not everything goes according to plan.</p>
<p>Contrast this with the still science-fiction vision of future artificial intelligence “pilots” flying autonomous aircraft, complete with an autonomous air traffic control system handling aircraft as easily as routers shuttling data packets on the internet. </p>
<p>I’m an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=Oqm-cy4AAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">aerospace engineer</a> who led a National Academies study ordered by Congress <a href="https://www.trb.org/Publications/Blurbs/170870.aspx">about air traffic controller staffing</a>. Researchers are continually working on new technologies that automate elements of the air traffic control system, but technology can execute only those functions that are planned for during its design and so can’t modify standard procedures. As the scenario above illustrates, humans are likely to remain a necessary central component of air traffic control for a long time to come.</p>
<h2>What air traffic controllers do</h2>
<p>The Federal Aviation Administration’s fundamental guidance for the <a href="https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/atpubs/atc_html/">responsibility of air traffic controllers</a> states: “The primary purpose of the air traffic control system is to prevent a collision involving aircraft.” Air traffic controllers are also charged with providing “a safe, orderly and expeditious flow of air traffic” and other services supporting safety, such as helping pilots avoid mountains and other hazardous terrain and hazardous weather, to the extent they can. </p>
<p>Air traffic controllers’ jobs vary. Tower controllers provide the local control that clears aircraft to take off and land, making sure that they are spaced safely apart. They also provide ground control, directing aircraft to taxi and notifying pilots of flight plans and potential safety concerns on that day before flight. Tower controllers are aided by some displays but mostly look outside from the towers and talk with pilots via radio. At larger airports staffed by FAA controllers, <a href="https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/technology/adsb/atc/assc">surface surveillance displays</a> show controllers the aircraft and other vehicles on the ground on the airfield.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">This FAA animation explains the three basic components of the U.S. air traffic control system.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Approach and en route controllers, on the other hand, sit in front of large displays in dark and quiet rooms. They communicate with pilots via radio. Their displays show aircraft locations on a map view with key features of the airspace boundaries and routes. </p>
<p>The 21 en route control centers in the U.S. manage traffic that is between and above airports and thus typically flying at higher speeds and altitudes. </p>
<p>Controllers at approach control facilities transition departing aircraft from local control after takeoff up and into en route airspace. They similarly take arriving aircraft from en route airspace, line them up with the landing approach and hand them off to tower controllers. </p>
<p>A controller at each display manages all the traffic within a sector. Sectors can vary in size from a few cubic miles, focused on sequencing aircraft landing at a busy airport, to en route sectors spanning more than 30,000 cubic miles (125,045 cubic km) where and when there are few aircraft flying. If a sector gets busy, a second and even third controller might assist, or the sector might be split into two, with another display and controller team managing the second. </p>
<h2>How technology can help</h2>
<p>Air traffic controllers have a stressful job and are subject to fatigue and information overload. Public concern about a growing number of close calls have put a spotlight on <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/15/us/politics/air-traffic-safety-faa.html">aging technology</a> and staffing shortages that have led to air traffic controllers <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/11/09/1211838624/air-traffic-controllers-shortage-close-calls-senate-safety-near-miss-senate">working mandatory overtime</a>. New technologies can help alleviate those issues.</p>
<p>The air traffic control system is incorporating new technologies in several ways. The FAA’s <a href="https://www.faa.gov/nextgen">NextGen air transportation system</a> initiative is providing controllers with more – and more accurate – information. </p>
<p>Controllers’ displays originally showed only radar tracking. They now can tap into all the data known about each flight within the <a href="https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/technology/eram">en route automation modernization system</a>. This system integrates radar, automatic position reports from aircraft via <a href="https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/technology/adsb">automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast</a>, weather reports, flight plans and flight histories. </p>
<p>Systems help alert controllers to potential conflicts between aircraft, or aircraft that are too close to high ground or structures, and provide suggestions to controllers to sequence aircraft into smooth traffic flows. In testimony to the U.S. Senate on Nov. 9, 2023, about airport safety, FAA Chief Operating Officer Timothy Arel said that the administration is <a href="https://www.transportation.gov/addressing-close-calls-improve-aviation-safety">developing or improving several air traffic control systems</a>.</p>
<p>Researchers are using machine learning to analyze and predict aspects of air traffic and air traffic control, including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/TVT.2020.2981959">air traffic flow between cities</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/1659103">air traffic controller behavior</a>.</p>
<h2>How technology can complicate matters</h2>
<p>New technology can also cause profound changes to air traffic control in the form of new types of aircraft. For example, current regulations mostly <a href="https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-14/chapter-I/subchapter-F/part-107">limit uncrewed aircraft</a> to fly lower than 400 feet (122 meters) above ground and away from airports. These are drones used by first responders, news organizations, surveyors, delivery services and hobbyists.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">NASA and the FAA are leading the development of a traffic control system for drones and other uncrewed aircraft.</span></figcaption>
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<p>However, some emerging uncrewed aircraft companies are proposing to fly in controlled airspace. Some plan to have their aircraft fly regular flight routes and interact normally with air traffic controllers via voice radio. These include <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231206413888/en/Reliable-Robotics-Flies-Large-Cargo-Aircraft-with-No-One-On-Board">Reliable Robotics</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/self-flying-cessna-completes-fully-automated-flight-xwing-2021-4">Xwing</a>, which are separately working to automate the Cessna Caravan, a small cargo airplane.</p>
<p>Others are targeting new business models, such as <a href="https://www.faa.gov/air-taxis">advanced air mobility</a>, the concept of small, highly automated electric aircraft – electric air taxis, for example. These would require dramatically different routes and procedures for handling air traffic.</p>
<h2>Expect the unexpected</h2>
<p>An air traffic controller’s routine can be disrupted by an aircraft that requires special handling. This could range from an emergency to priority handling of medical flights or Air Force One. Controllers are given the responsibility and the flexibility to adapt how they manage their airspace.</p>
<p>The requirements for the front line of air traffic control are a poor match for AI’s capabilities. People expect air traffic to continue to be the safest complex, high-technology system ever. It achieves this standard by adhering to procedures when practical, which is something AI can do, and by adapting and exercising good judgment whenever something unplanned occurs or a new operation is implemented – a <a href="https://theconversation.com/embrace-the-unexpected-to-teach-ai-how-to-handle-new-situations-change-the-rules-of-the-game-157560">notable weakness of today’s AI</a>.</p>
<p>Indeed, it is when conditions are the worst – when controllers figure out how to handle aircraft with severe problems, airport crises or widespread airspace closures due to security concerns or infrastructure failures – that controllers’ contributions to safety are the greatest. </p>
<p>Also, controllers don’t fly the aircraft. They communicate and interact with others to guide the aircraft, and so their responsibility is fundamentally to serve as part of a team – another <a href="https://www.sto.nato.int/publications/STO%20Meeting%20Proceedings/STO-MP-HFM-300/MP-HFM-300-20.pdf">notable weakness of AI</a>.</p>
<p>As an engineer and designer, I’m most excited about the potential for AI to analyze the big data records of past air traffic operations in pursuit of, for example, more efficient routes of flight. However, as a pilot, I’m glad to hear a controller’s calm voice on the radio helping me land quickly and safely should I have a problem.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220763/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Pritchett receives funding from the National Science Foundation through the Center for Advanced Aerial Mobility and Sensors (CAAMS) on the topic of in-flight autonomy capable of resolving faults and failures in on-board systems, and is finishing up a project sponsored by NASA examining human-autonomy teaming in advanced aerial mobility. </span></em></p>An air traffic safety expert explains why humans will remain central to managing the nation’s airports and airspace even as AI promises to improve air traffic control.Amy Pritchett, Professor of Aerospace Engineering, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2132132023-12-06T13:28:53Z2023-12-06T13:28:53ZYour car might be watching you to keep you safe − at the expense of your privacy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563468/original/file-20231204-15-ei72ki.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1273%2C714&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Many modern cars watch occupants -- a plus for safety but not so much for privacy.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.lgnewsroom.com/2021/08/how-lgs-enhanced-in-vehicle-cabin-camera-makes-driving-and-riding-safer/">Courtesy LG</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Depending on which late-model vehicle you own, your car <a href="https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-safety/driver-monitoring-systems-ford-gm-earn-points-in-cr-tests-a6530426322/">might be watching you</a> – literally and figuratively – as you drive down the road. It’s watching you with cameras that monitor the cabin and track where you’re looking, and with sensors that track your speed, lane position and rate of acceleration. </p>
<p>Your car uses this data to make your ride safe, comfortable and convenient. For example, the cameras <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/cars-that-watch-their-drivers-could-re-teach-the-world-to-drive/">can tell when you’ve been distracted</a> and need to bring your attention back to the road. They can also <a href="https://mycardoeswhat.org/safety-features/high-speed-alert/">identify when you are speeding</a> by verifying the speed limit from your GPS position or traffic signs along the road and warn you to slow down. Some carmakers are also beginning to incorporate similar features for convenience, such as unlocking your car by <a href="https://www.popsci.com/technology/genesis-gv60-facial-recognition/">scanning your face</a> <a href="https://www.techradar.com/news/fingerprint-scanners-are-now-being-used-to-unlock-and-start-your-car">or fingerprint</a>. Your car may also transmit some of this data to the manufacturer’s data centers, where the company uses it to improve your driving experience or provide you with personalized services.</p>
<p>In addition to providing these benefits, this data collection is a potential privacy nightmare. The information can reveal your identity, your habits when you’re in your car, how safely you drive, where you’ve been and where you regularly go. A report by the Mozilla Foundation, a nonprofit technology research and advocacy organization, found that <a href="https://foundation.mozilla.org/en/privacynotincluded/articles/its-official-cars-are-the-worst-product-category-we-have-ever-reviewed-for-privacy/">carmakers’ privacy policies are exceedingly lax</a>. The study identified cars as the “worst category of products for privacy that we have ever reviewed.” U.S. Sen. Ed Markey wrote a <a href="https://www.markey.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/senator_markey_letter_to_automakers_on_privacy.pdf">letter to U.S. automakers</a> on Nov. 30, 2023, asking a lengthy set of questions about their data practices.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Cars collect a lot of information about drivers and passengers.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Today’s smart cars present drivers with a trade-off between convenience and privacy, assuming drivers have the option of improving the data privacy of their cars. As a <a href="https://dblp.org/pid/172/0864.html">computer scientist who studies cybersecurity and resilience in transportation</a>, I see several technological routes to getting the best of both worlds: cars that make use of this collected data while also preserving users’ privacy.</p>
<h2>Driver data</h2>
<p>Today’s cars use a wide range of sensors to understand the environment, analyze the data and ensure the safety of passengers. For instance, cars are equipped with sensors that measure brake pedal position, vehicle speed, driver’s movements, surrounding vehicles and even traffic lights. The collected data is transmitted to the car’s electric control units, the computers that operate the car’s many systems.</p>
<p>There are two types of sensors that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2009.04.005">continuously monitor and predict a driver’s drowsiness</a>. The first is vehicle status monitoring sensors such as lane detection and steering wheel position tracking. This data is not directly related to a specific person and can be considered not personally identifiable information unless it is correlated with other data that identifies the driver. </p>
<p>The second type of sensors tracks drivers themselves. This category includes things like cameras to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11768-010-8043-0">track the driver’s eye movements to predict fatigue</a>. This second group of sensors is directly related to the driver’s privacy because they collect personally identifiable information, such as the driver’s face.</p>
<h2>Protecting privacy</h2>
<p>There is a trade-off between the quality of the driving experience and the privacy of drivers, depending on the level of services and features. Some drivers may prefer to share their biometric data to facilitate accessing a car’s functions and automating a major part of their driving experience. Others may prefer to manually control the car’s systems, sharing less personally identifiable information or none at all.</p>
<p>At first glance, it seems the trade-off of privacy and driver comfort cannot be avoided. Car manufacturers tend to take measures to <a href="https://news.fiu.edu/2023/how-ai-will-protect-your-car-and-your-privacy">protect drivers’ data against data thieves</a>, but they collect a lot of data themselves. And as the Mozilla Foundation report showed, most car companies reserve the right to sell your data. Researchers are working on developing data analytics tools that better protect privacy and make progress on eliminating the trade-off.</p>
<p>For instance, over the past seven years, the concept of <a href="https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1602.05629">federated machine learning</a> has attracted attention because it allows algorithms to learn from the data on your local device without copying the data to a central server. For instance, Google’s Gboard keyboard benefits from federated learning to better guess the next word you are likely to type <a href="https://support.google.com/gboard/answer/12373137?hl=en#zippy=%2Cfederated-learning">without sharing your private data with a server</a>.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Federated learning is a technique for training AI models that keeps people’s data private.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Research led by Ervin Moore, a Ph.D. student at Florida International University’s <a href="https://solidlab.network">Sustainability, Optimization, and Learning for InterDependent Networks laboratory</a>, and published in IEEE Internet of Things Journal explored the idea of using <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/JIOT.2023.3313055">blockchain-based federated machine learning</a> to improve the privacy and security of users and their sensitive data. The technique could be used to protect drivers’ data. There are other techniques to preserve privacy as well, such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-73538-0_4">location obfuscation</a>, which alters the user’s location data to prevent their location from being revealed.</p>
<p>While there is still a trade-off between user privacy and quality of service, privacy-preserving data analytics techniques could pave the way for using data without leaking drivers’ and passengers’ personally identifiable information. This way, drivers could benefit from a wide range of modern cars’ services and features without paying the high cost of lost privacy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213213/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>M. Hadi Amini receives funding for researching privacy and security of transportation systems from U.S. Department of Transportation. Opinions expressed represent the author's personal or professional opinions and do not represent or reflect the position of Florida International University.
His work on transportation system cybersecurity is in part supported by the National Center for Transportation Cybersecurity and Resiliency (TraCR). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, and recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of TraCR or the U.S. Government generally. </span></em></p>Your car’s safety technology takes you into account. But a lot of that technology helps car companies collect data about you. Researchers are working on closing the gap between safety and privacy.M. Hadi Amini, Assistant Professor of Computing and Information Sciences, Florida International UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2143232023-09-29T16:43:11Z2023-09-29T16:43:11ZSelf-driving buses that go wherever you want? How the UK is trying to revolutionise public transport<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551206/original/file-20230929-23-z1vo5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C164%2C3015%2C1730&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Scotland’s CAVForth self-driving bus service began in May 2023, serving a 14-mile route that crosses the Forth Road Bridge on the outskirts of Edinburgh.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stagecoachbus.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Futurology is littered with predictions that failed to materialise, not least in the field of transport technology. In Edwardian times, when public transport was largely powered by horse or steam, a number of new concepts emerged which were hailed as the “future of public transport”.</p>
<p>In 1910, the <a href="https://collection.sciencemuseumgroup.org.uk/objects/co27065/brennans-gyroscopic-mono-rail-car-model-gyroscopic-mono-railcar">Brennan Monorail</a> was a gyroscopically stabilised, diesel-powered monorail train that ran on a circular test track at the White City in London. One of the early passengers on this <a href="https://www.midnight-trains.com/post/on-board-louis-brennans-gyroscopic-monorail">50-person prototype</a> was then-home secretary Winston Churchill, who insisted on driving the train himself. The new technology <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19225780-125-histories-the-spinning-top-railway/">reportedly</a> “proved as interesting to the statesman as a new toy would to a child” – and Churchill is said to have told its Irish-Australian creator <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/people/louis-brennan-the-inventive-life-of-the-monorail-man-from-mayo-1.1757782">Louis Brennan</a>: “Sir, your invention promises to revolutionise the railway systems of the world.”</p>
<p>Buoyed by such designs, engineering writers of the time looked forward to a future of us all whizzing around the country on new forms of hi-tech transport. But there were concerns too: in one popular <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmsworth_Popular_Science">1912 encyclopaedia</a>, an artist’s impression of a monorail train crossing a gorge via an unfeasibly skimpy bridge was accompanied by the warning:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>When [note, not ‘if’] the monorail comes into general use, the feeling of insecurity – quite unnecessary but nevertheless inevitable – will be felt the strongest where there are single-rail bridges.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In fact, despite Churchill’s support, the Brennan Monorail never got further than the test track. In both its target markets – cheaply built branch lines and the military – a far simpler technology easily outdid it on grounds of practicality, flexibility and cost: the motorised bus and truck.</p>
<p>More than a century on, we are in a new era of transport technology disruption. In recent years, across the world, we have seen the emergence of the <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/flying-electric-taxis-are-hailed-as-the-future-2v6jllgfc">flying taxi</a> and <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesmorris/2022/11/29/is-it-finally-time-for-high-speed-hyperloop-transportation/">hyperloop train</a> prototypes, <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2021-08-10/hydrogen-highway-or-highway-to-nowhere">hydrogen highways</a> and <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/09/trackless-trams-help-revitalize-suburbs/">trackless trams</a>, as well as countless driverless <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2012/12/23/3797260/self-driving-cars-automated-vehicles">car</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-cars-what-weve-learned-from-experiments-in-san-francisco-and-phoenix-199319">taxi</a> and <a href="https://fortune.com/2017/01/14/vegas-self-driving-bus/">bus</a> pilots. At the same time, our most popular forms of public transport – the train and bus – are creaking under the strain of <a href="https://www.local.gov.uk/about/news/thousands-bus-routes-risk-amid-funding-uncertainty">government funding cuts</a>, <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/resolving-rail-disputes-would-have-cost-less-than-strikes-admits-minister-12789405">union disputes</a> and <a href="https://www.railpro.co.uk/railpro-magazine/april-22/staffing-strategies-must-be-fixed-to-secure-future-for-uk-rail">technological upheaval</a>.</p>
<p>Is this the dawning of a much-needed revolution in mass transit, led by a new breed of clean-powered, demand-responsive, driverless vehicles? Or for all the people young and old, rural and urban-based, who rely on public transport for their everyday needs, will these grand designs turn out to be little more than modern versions of the Brennan Monorail flop?</p>
<h2>Slow death of the bus</h2>
<p>A key factor influencing today’s public transport strategies is the commitment to limit planetary warming to 1.5°C by reaching net zero emissions – a strategy the UK prime minister, Rishi Sunak, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66857551">recently appeared to row back on</a>. One global projection by the C40 network suggests public transport use in cities needs to <a href="https://www.c40.org/news/public-transport-cities-decade-1-5c-target/">double by 2030</a> to meet these targets.</p>
<p>But there are, of course, many other benefits of good public transport: from <a href="https://www.unep.org/explore-topics/resource-efficiency/what-we-do/cities/sustainable-transport-and-air-pollution">improving air quality</a> and <a href="https://www.urbantransportgroup.org/resources/social-inclusion#:%7E:text=Transport%20has%20a%20vital%20role,to%20fully%20participate%20in%20society.">social inclusion</a> to encouraging <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/spotlight/economic-growth/regional-development/2022/07/transport-is-the-core-of-levelling-up">regional economic development</a> (aka levelling up) and <a href="https://oecd-opsi.org/innovations/pink-passes/">widening workforce participation</a>.</p>
<p>In the UK, trains continue to hog the headlines, amid the rumoured <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66909732">cancellation of the northern section of the HS2 route</a>, the general <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/22/north-rail-system-franchises-london">lack of rail investment in the north</a>, ongoing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/rail-strikes">industrial action</a> over pay and staffing levels – and even the agonising <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/sep/26/no-one-knew-anything-rail-passengers-11-hour-london-to-edinburgh-odyssey">11-hour ordeal</a> endured by rail passengers when their London to Edinburgh service was cancelled mid-route. Meanwhile, the long, slow <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/06/bus-neglect-national-failure-public-policy-motorists">collapse of the UK’s local bus services</a> has gone largely unnoticed – other than by the people who have lost this critical mode of travel.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550306/original/file-20230926-15-nvzbgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="BBC graphic of bus cuts" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550306/original/file-20230926-15-nvzbgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550306/original/file-20230926-15-nvzbgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=935&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550306/original/file-20230926-15-nvzbgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=935&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550306/original/file-20230926-15-nvzbgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=935&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550306/original/file-20230926-15-nvzbgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550306/original/file-20230926-15-nvzbgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550306/original/file-20230926-15-nvzbgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Changes in bus use in English counties.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64651414">Department for Transport/BBC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In March 2023, the House of Commons Transport Committee <a href="https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/34612/documents/190548/default/">reported</a> that England’s long-term decline in bus use outside London – a 15% drop between 2010-11 and 2018-19 – had deteriorated by a further 15% despite the government’s temporary <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/2-bus-fare-cap">£2 cap on fares</a> (rising to £2.50 in November 2023). The situation is <a href="https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/scottish-transport-statistics-no-38-2019-edition/chapter-2-bus-and-coach-travel/#:%7E:text=380%20million%20journeys%20were%20made,cards%20in%20Scotland%20in%202019.">similar in Scotland</a>, where bus use has declined 22% since 2007-08.</p>
<p>In parallel with this decline, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64557250">services and routes have been cut</a>. Government bus grants have become increasingly selective, resulting in entire bus networks vanishing in a number of areas, and being left “<a href="https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/local-bus-services-hanging-by-a-thread-mps-warn/ar-AA19fI5V?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=e1abcf8487c34436b238e8eb141cacb9&ei=34">hanging by a thread</a>” in others.</p>
<p>This isn’t just in smaller towns and rural areas. Many larger settlements have also been affected, such as Stoke-on-Trent, where bus services have reduced by half since 2012-14. In June 2023, when <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3gz35wgpdyo">further cuts were announced</a>, <a href="https://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/news/stoke-on-trent-news/first-potteries-axes-journeys-cuts-8536993">local media</a> reported the impact on users such as this unhappy traveller:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I use the bus to get to work and back, and losing the service would mean reducing my hours. It’s getting us down. My husband’s an Avon rep, so he’s on and off the buses all the time. And the 8am bus I get is packed.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>There are exceptions to this downward spiral. Manchester’s mayor, Andy Burnham, recently heralded the launch of the new, <a href="https://www.greatermanchester-ca.gov.uk/news/local-accountability-at-centre-of-new-bus-network-as-operators-appointed-to-run-first-franchised-services-outside-of-london-for-almost-40-years/">“re-regulated” Bee network of buses</a> across Greater Manchester as “symbolic of a need to get more public control and ownership of critical services”. Praising this initiative, the Guardian wrote in its <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/18/the-guardian-view-on-greater-manchesters-bus-revolution-the-public-at-the-wheel?CMP=share_btn_tw">leader column</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The cutting of bus services on purely commercial grounds has led to greater social and economic isolation, restricting opportunities for the elderly and those without other means of getting around. Publicly regulated buses will at last allow greater accountability in relation to a service that, for many passengers, is fundamental to their daily quality of life.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But this is not the direction of travel in most parts of the country, where privatised, disconnected bus services remain dominant. A key structural reason for the decline in local bus use is that people’s patterns of travel have become <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1165693/our-changing-travel-how-people_s-travel-choices-are-changing.pdf">much more dispersed and complex</a> – behaviour that is hard to accommodate with a conventional, fixed-route public transport system such as the bus.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>This article is part of Conversation Insights</em></strong>
<br><em>The Insights team generates <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218">long-form journalism</a> derived from interdisciplinary research. The team is working with academics from different backgrounds who have been engaged in projects aimed at tackling societal and scientific challenges.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>In fact, the strongest recent growth in local travel – seemingly exacerbated by the pandemic – has not been along major corridors to city centres, but in <a href="https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/document?repid=rep1&type=pdf&doi=5f45c81567467d0a5f56899774153461b85b1e4e">suburban and rural areas</a>. Not only are people <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/characteristicsofhomeworkersgreatbritain/september2022tojanuary2023">working in different ways</a> but our economy is increasingly <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02786/#:%7E:text=The%20service%20industries%20include%20the,employment%20in%20January%E2%80%93March%202023.">service</a> and <a href="https://www.capitaleconomics.com/newsroom/uk-economy-returns-growth-driven-consumer-spending">consumer-focused</a>, and travel patterns have altered significantly as a result. The major areas of travel growth are now for <a href="http://www.demand.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/FutureTravel_report_final.pdf">social and leisure-related purposes</a> – and again, traditional fixed-route bus services struggle to accommodate these types of trip, while it is so much easier to simply use a car.</p>
<p>The advent of certain digital technologies – in particular, <a href="https://www.route-one.net/features/cashless-is-king-the-shifting-landscape-of-ticketing/">cashless ticketing</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/public-leaders-network/2016/sep/15/top-10-transport-apps-smarter-travel">journey planning apps</a> – may make using public transport more desirable for those comfortable with such technology. But they don’t change the core service. A smart app is just a high-tech insult if buses don’t run when and where you want to go.</p>
<h2>The emergence of trackless trams</h2>
<p>In 2011, a small but radical new service was established to connect passengers using Heathrow Airport’s Terminal 5 with their parked cars. These <a href="https://www.heathrow.com/transport-and-directions/heathrow-parking/heathrow-pod-parking-terminal-5">Heathrow Pods</a> consisted of driverless, four-seater vehicles available on demand, taking passengers straight to their destination along special elevated, segregated roadways. Users were promised they would “never have to wait more than 30 seconds for one to become available”.</p>
<p>While admittedly covering a very limited area, this radical alternative to the traditional fixed-route, scheduled model of public transport <a href="https://www.dailystar.co.uk/travel/travel-news/mans-video-futuristic-heathrow-airport-28010349">continues to garner praise</a> since reopening after a hiatus during the pandemic. In the wake of the Heathrow Pods’ introduction, it had been expected that similar tracked, autonomous transport systems would develop elsewhere – but that hasn’t come about.</p>
<p>Rather, they could be seen as a small-vehicle precursor to the <a href="https://citymonitor.ai/transport/trackless-trams-may-be-the-best-alternative-to-light-rail">trackless tram systems</a> that have subsequently emerged around the world. A combination of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Positioning_System">GPS</a> and <a href="https://www.mrlcg.com/latest-media/lidar-in-cars-how-lidar-technology-is-making-self-driving-cars-a-reality-299493/">Lidar (light detection and ranging</a>) guidance technologies are enabling battery-powered electric vehicles to fulfil the function of trams without the need for disruptive and costly track and overhead line infrastructure – making high-quality tram-style services viable beyond a handful of “global elite” cities.</p>
<p>The Chinese <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-Trackless-Tram-System-developed-by-CRRC-and-demonstrated-in-Zhuzhou-China-Source_fig1_330069521">pioneered this form of public transport</a> with the automated rapid transit (ART) vehicles, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-trackless-trams-are-ready-to-replace-light-rail-103690">first entered service in the eastern city of Zhuzhou</a> in 2018, then rapidly spread to other Chinese cities. Initially manually driven, these trackless trams are now moving to autonomous operation. In Zhuzhou, a four-carriage model was introduced in 2021 which can carry 320 passengers at a maximum speed of just over 40mph, running on batteries charged at each station stop.</p>
<p>And the concept is spreading beyond China: in 2022, a trial was announced for a five-mile route <a href="https://www.stirling.wa.gov.au/your-city/news/2022/march/exciting-new-phase-in-trackless-tram-feasibility">in the city of Stirling</a>, Western Australia. In the UK, however, there is less inclination to <a href="https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2022/10/uk-and-us-seek-to-undermine-chinas-growing-technological-influence/">depend on Chinese-controlled technology</a>. And of course, trams – trackless or otherwise – don’t solve the issue of people wanting services that take them beyond a fixed route.</p>
<p>Meeting the modern, disparate mobility needs of an entire population doesn’t just require new types of vehicle or clever booking apps. We need a new vision of what public transport could be – and in different corners of the UK, there are places starting to offer this.</p>
<h2>The UK’s self-driving public transport prototypes</h2>
<p>Scotland’s <a href="https://www.cavforth.com/">CAVForth self-driving bus service</a>, which came into public service in May 2023, is described on its website as “the world’s most ambitious and complex autonomous bus system”. Serving a <a href="https://www.cnet.com/tech/i-rode-the-worlds-first-autonomous-public-bus-service/">14-mile route</a> that crosses the Forth Road Bridge on the outskirts of Edinburgh, the buses drive themselves along ordinary roads, obey traffic lights, and mix with pedestrians and cyclists. The main reaction of passengers seems to be that they are unaware the buses are not manually driven, as one early user <a href="https://www.cnet.com/tech/i-rode-the-worlds-first-autonomous-public-bus-service/">wrote in CNet</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Though the bus is fully autonomous, you’d be forgiven for not really recognising it as such. You’ll find a regular steering wheel upfront, and behind it, a driver who’ll no doubt look as though they’re operating the vehicle as usual. UK law dictates that even fully autonomous vehicles must still have an ‘operator’ present who can take manual control, should the need arise.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/jQ4uMMYP5xg?wmode=transparent&start=6" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Stagecoach video showing passengers on board the CAVForth self-driving bus service.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Using a combination of three sets of Lidar technology and a “suite of cameras and radar”, the autonomous system can currently manage 90% of the route, <a href="https://www.itpro.com/technology/meet-the-cavforth-project-the-worlds-first-autonomous-bus#:%7E:text=The%20five%2Dbus%20fleet%20began,will%20expand%20northwards%20to%20Dunfermline.">according to ITPro</a>, with the human driver “handling the exit from the depot and a few other locations”. The route is projected to expand further north, to the city of Dunfermline, in 2024.</p>
<p>Because the driver is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/free-public-transport-doesnt-add-up-unless-you-get-rid-of-the-drivers-97129">big part of bus running costs</a>, if buses can eventually be autonomous then the challenging costs of providing late-night services or thinly used routes will be reduced – meaning that services could be improved. But the IT-led potential extends much further than a driverless bus.</p>
<p>In south-east England, <a href="https://www.mi-link.uk/">Mi-Link</a> – billed as “the UK’s first fully electric autonomous bus service” – is a move towards something more radical. As well as being electric-powered, this self-driving bus service – which launched in January 2023 and now <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-65888336">runs on public roads to Didcot Parkway railway station</a> in south Oxfordshire – is linked to a real-time journey planning app which helps travellers plan their journey whether they are walking, cycling or taking the bus to the Milton Park trading estate. It keeps users updated according to their individual travel preferences through the likes of WhatsApp and Messenger.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qVI-vvUrqnU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">First Bus video launching the Mi-Link self-driving electric bus service in Oxfordshire.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The integration of autonomous technology with a smart journey planning system feels critical if public transport is to prosper by attracting traditional car users. App-linked self-driving taxi fleets may well prove another key part of this future, and there are already entirely driverless public taxi fleets such as Waymo and Cruise in <a href="https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=driverless+cars+san+francisco&docid=603485803253406102&mid=FACAC36B1FADD54CBAAFFACAC36B1FADD54CBAAF&view=detail&FORM=VIRE">San Francisco</a>, and the <a href="https://uk.pcmag.com/news/145977/visiting-chinas-capital-city-dont-be-surprised-if-your-taxi-has-no-driver">Robotaxi</a> in China. On the whole, these appear to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-cars-what-weve-learned-from-experiments-in-san-francisco-and-phoenix-199319">technically successful</a>, if highly subsidised and dependent on powerful 5G networks to operate. However, their emergence has been <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-66611513">met with resistance</a> both about perceived lack of safety and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f312c9ff-633d-480e-8887-4b5ad3f0ae5e">luddite-esque fears</a> of potential job losses.</p>
<p>But for one of the best clues to what local public transport could look like in the future, we should again look closer to home, to a UK city that has long been renowned – and sometimes mocked – for its futuristic visions.</p>
<h2>The future according to Milton Keynes</h2>
<p>After its foundation in 1967, the ambitious <a href="https://www.tcpa.org.uk/areas-of-work/garden-cities-and-new-towns/new-towns/">new town</a> of Milton Keynes in Buckinghamshire soon began attracting an international reputation for anticipating future social, economic and cultural trends. Along the way, it was also derided as a <a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/uk/milton-keynes-turns-50-embracing-roundabouts-city-wants-lead-culture-tech-42699">city of roundabouts</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concrete_Cows">concrete cows</a>, with one architecture critic <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2010/oct/23/ruins-britain-owen-hatherley-review">calling it</a> “the doomed apotheosis of the fossil-fuel society”.</p>
<p>Today, its designers’ desire to accommodate extremely high levels of car use can be viewed as an environmentally irresponsible planning stance. But despite its detractors, Milton Keynes has proved extremely successful both economically and socially, and today has a growing reputation for being at the forefront of a <a href="https://www.milton-keynes.gov.uk/news/2023/major-boost-advanced-rapid-transport-mk">more climate-friendly era of transport innovation</a>.</p>
<p>Recently, its planners have grappled with the need for a new type of public transport – something that is “demand responsive” in the way of a taxi, but without taxi-level fares.</p>
<p>Demand-responsive transport (DRT) services have been attempted by public authorities over the years – but <a href="https://oro.open.ac.uk/19345/1/">largely without success</a>. A <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/referencework/9780081026724/international-encyclopedia-of-transportation">global assessment</a> in 2021 concluded that when a new DRT service is set up, revenue from the low number of passengers could not cover the running costs, particularly those of the driver and back-office systems.</p>
<p>One early example was the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/2399505.stm">Corlink DRT service</a> in north Cornwall, which launched in 2002 to link rural communities with towns. The subsidy cost of over £28 per passenger trip was financially unsustainable and when special government support for the project ended, the service was withdrawn.</p>
<p>The Taxibus service to Bicester rail station, which launched around the same time, ran flexible routes off-peak and, by late 2003, was carrying 50,000 passengers a year. But even then, the service was eventually withdrawn as commercially unviable.</p>
<p>Twenty years on, however, Milton Keynes has addressed <a href="https://oro.open.ac.uk/85542/1/Corrected%20proofs%20TCP%20DRT%20article.pdf">the cost problem</a>, at least, with its DRT service, <a href="https://getaroundmk.org.uk/on-board/mk-connect">MK Connect</a>. Facing the familiar situation of decreased funding to support the rising cost of uneconomic bus services, the city council opted not to implement cuts. Instead, it replaced its subsidised routes with a new demand-responsive service in partnership with the international tech company <a href="https://ridewithvia.com/about?lang=en-gb">Via Transportation</a>. Introduced in 2021, MK Connect still requires a subsidy, but <a href="https://oro.open.ac.uk/85542/">half that of the conventional bus services</a> it replaced.</p>
<p>The service is booked by users like an Uber taxi, logging their pick-up and drop-off addresses through a smartphone app, web portal or by phoning the contact centre. The app directs users to a nearby pick-up point, and they are dropped near their destination. Other passengers may be picked up and dropped off along the way.</p>
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<p>The vehicles are small: as well as the fleet of eight-seater vans (many of which are electric), some cars are used. They generally arrive within 30 minutes of a booking being made, though the wait can be longer at busy times and in more rural areas. Fares are similar to that of traditional buses (payment is cashless), and the service covers the whole Milton Keynes city area – with far better coverage and operating times than the limited bus routes the service replaced.</p>
<p>An important feature is that the app will not allow someone to book on MK Connect if they could use a commercial bus route for their trip instead. In these cases, travellers are informed where to catch the conventional bus and when it will arrive. This ensures that MK Connect does not adversely affect existing viable bus routes, while improving the city’s public transport as a whole. Equally, if people cannot use existing buses due to a disability or other reason, they can register this and will always be accommodated on MK Connect.</p>
<p>The service is widely used, with some 40,000 trips being made each month (almost half a million each year) – a level of use that means its finances stack up. MK Connect has enabled trips to be made that previously were difficult or impossible using conventional buses, including for a man with sight loss who is the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQYnJ41CmTY">subject of a widely shared video</a>.</p>
<p>One of us – Stephen – has used MK Connect on a number of occasions, and offers this mixed review of his experiences of the service:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I booked a trip to get to the barbers for a haircut. You can only book an hour or so beforehand, but I found a service that would get me there on time, which picked me up from the end of our road (the app guided me to the exact pick-up point). One other person joined us on the way and another was dropped off en route, but I got to my drop-off point in time for a three-minute walk across to the barbers. Coming back was less smooth, though. Initially, I was refused a booking – no vehicles were available. I waited a few minutes and tried again. This time I got a vehicle, after a 50-minute wait …</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This mixed experience reflects the feedback that has been given in various <a href="https://oro.open.ac.uk/85542/1/Corrected%20proofs%20TCP%20DRT%20article.pdf">passenger surveys</a>. MK Connect is designed to serve modern, dispersed patterns of travel demands but is by no means perfect – some people find it harder to use than the buses it replaced, and there are problems with the vehicles being full at busy times, meaning prospective passengers are refused a booking or not accommodated for a long time. The booking system is also not yet reliable enough when a person has to get to an appointment or college lecture on time, say, or to connect with a specific train.</p>
<p>However, generally speaking, regular users appear to be getting used to the new system and its quirks. The real benefit to them, of course, is that this DRT service allows them to make trips that would be much more difficult, or impossible, using traditional route buses.</p>
<p>Another recently launched DRT, <a href="https://www.intelligenttransport.com/transport-articles/132018/transport-accessibility-hertslynx-drt-hertfordshire/">HertsLynx</a>, aims to serve the rural fringes of Hertfordshire using four electric-powered, 16-seater minibuses in an operating zone centred around the market town of Buntingford and surrounding villages. Passengers are able to travel between 250 virtual bus stops, as well as nearby towns including Stevenage, Hitchin, Letchworth and Baldock – although travel to these towns is limited to fixed points (hospitals, train and bus stations, and high streets).</p>
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<p>HertsLynx now makes 2,600 passenger trips a month and, like MK Connect, booking is by app, online or phone. With only four buses, it has hit a similar issue to MK Connect of being unable to take some trip requests when vehicles are fully in use, as noted in this <a href="https://busandtrainuser.com/2023/07/30/the-drt-renowned-for-its-success/">recent review</a>.</p>
<p>These two prototype services suggest a good model is emerging for local public transport, but that it needs refining. DRT services can best serve more dispersed trips, while conventional buses work well when a regular, predictable arrival time is needed and in situations of high demand. A good mix of the two is what is needed and Milton Keynes and HertsLynx, while heading that way, haven’t yet achieved it. Adding a in a <a href="https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/its-a-new-dawn-for-27759901">Manchester-style regulation structure</a> might well do that. </p>
<h2>The future of local public transport?</h2>
<p>As the Brennan Monorail flop illustrated more than a century ago, predicting the future is a dangerous thing. But there is clearly potential to <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-visions-for-the-future-of-public-transport-125443">rethink public transport systems</a> all over the world, in a way that makes a real difference to the planet and quality of daily life – by improving mobility while reducing costs, air pollution and congestion levels.</p>
<p>This revolution is being driven by a range of organisations, spanning powerful technology companies and IT startups as well as the existing public transport industry and both national and local policymakers. Central to a more diversified public transport future is easily accessed information and payment systems that allow users to customise different services for their own travel needs. Personalised apps on mobile devices to book and pay for public transport services will become increasingly important.</p>
<p>If you combine digital planning and payment systems, autonomous driving and a DRT service redesign, then a radically better form of public transport starts to emerge. Without the need for a driver, fixed-route buses could be smaller but run more frequently. Combined with DRT services to cover more dispersed trips, the potentially transformative, “small vehicle-small infrastructure” vision of public transport systems comes into place.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-public-transport-will-change-our-approach-to-city-planning-and-living-35520">Driverless public transport will change our approach to city planning – and living</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The result could be that, rather than people needing to adjust their behaviour to the schedules and routes of a bus or metro, they can travel directly, whenever they want, on services operating 24/7 – overcoming the poor quality of infrequent evening, night and Sunday public transport services experienced today.</p>
<p>All that said, the future may still not end up quite as automated as <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/digital-development/automated-transport-could-propel-development-forward-can-we-turn-vision-reality">some technologists predict</a>. Driverless vehicles overseen by control centres cost an awful lot to set up and run, and this may limit the use of driverless bus and taxi systems to where use is high enough to make the sums add up – in other words, major cities. For a good while yet, public transport vehicles in most medium-sized UK towns, as well as rural areas, are likely to remain manually driven.</p>
<p>Rather than trying to jump straight to an IT-driverless ideal, a phased introduction of upgradable, adaptable system designs makes more sense. In this way, the spectre of the Brennan Monorail should remain a useful reminder that not all technological advances will change our world for the better, and there is a real danger that second-best fixes could impede potentially transformative change. This is a journey that has only just started – and it’s going to be a bumpy ride.</p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Amid bus route cuts and rail strikes, can the answer to our future public transport needs be found in the hi-tech prototypes being trialled around the UK?Stephen Potter, Professor of Transport Strategy, The Open UniversityMatthew Cook, Professor of Innovation, The Open UniversityMiguel Valdez, Lecturer in Technology and Innovation Management, The Open UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2083262023-06-23T12:29:43Z2023-06-23T12:29:43ZTitan submersible disaster underscores dangers of deep-sea exploration – an engineer explains why most ocean science is conducted with crewless submarines<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533576/original/file-20230622-19-hnt7xe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C6%2C4594%2C3055&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Researchers are increasingly using small, autonomous underwater robots to collect data in the world's oceans.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/noaaphotolib/27555260673/">NOAA Teacher at Sea Program,NOAA Ship PISCES</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Rescuers spotted debris from the tourist submarine Titan on the ocean floor near the wreck of the Titanic on June 22, 2023, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/22/us/titanic-missing-submarine/heres-the-latest-on-the-missing-submersible">indicating that the vessel suffered a catastrophic failure</a> and the five people aboard were killed.</em></p>
<p><em>Bringing people to the bottom of the deep ocean is inherently dangerous. At the same time, climate change means collecting data from the world’s oceans is more vital than ever. Purdue University mechanical engineer <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=z1BeTeYAAAAJ&hl=en">Nina Mahmoudian</a> explains how researchers reduce the risks and costs associated with deep-sea exploration: Send down subs, but keep people on the surface.</em></p>
<h2>Why is most underwater research conducted with remotely operated and autonomous underwater vehicles?</h2>
<p>When we talk about water studies, we’re talking about vast areas. And covering vast areas requires tools that can work for extended periods of time, sometimes months. Having people aboard underwater vehicles, especially for such long periods of time, is expensive and dangerous.</p>
<p>One of the tools researchers use is <a href="https://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/facts/rov.html">remotely operated vehicles</a>, or ROVs. Basically, there is a cable between the vehicle and operator that allows the operator to command and move the vehicle, and the vehicle can relay data in real time. ROV technology has progressed a lot to be able to reach deep ocean – up to a depth of 6,000 meters (19,685 feet). It’s also better able to provide the mobility necessary for observing the sea bed and gathering data.</p>
<p><a href="https://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/facts/auv.html">Autonomous underwater vehicles</a> provide another opportunity for underwater exploration. They are usually not tethered to a ship. They are typically programmed ahead of time to do a specific mission. And while they are underwater they usually don’t have constant communication. At some interval, they surface, relay the whole amount of data that they have gathered, change the battery or recharge and receive renewed instructions before again submerging and continuing their mission.</p>
<h2>What can remotely operated and autonomous underwater vehicles do that crewed submersibles can’t, and vice versa?</h2>
<p>Crewed submersibles will be exciting for the public and those involved and helpful for the increased capabilities humans bring in operating instruments and making decisions, similar to crewed space exploration. However, it will be much more expensive compared with uncrewed explorations because of the required size of the platforms and the need for life-support systems and safety systems. Crewed submersibles today <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/15/science/piloted-deep-sea-research-is-bottoming-out.html">cost tens of thousands of dollars a day</a> to operate.</p>
<p>Use of unmanned systems will provide better opportunities for exploration at less cost and risk in operating over vast areas and in inhospitable locations. Using remotely operated and autonomous underwater vehicles gives operators the opportunity to perform tasks that are dangerous for humans, like observing under ice and detecting underwater mines.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Remotely operated vehicles can operate under Antarctic ice and other dangerous places.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How has the technology for deep ocean research evolved?</h2>
<p>The technology has advanced dramatically in recent years due to progress in sensors and computation. There has been great progress in <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390%2Fs21237849">miniaturization of acoustic sensors and sonars</a> for use underwater. Computers have also become more miniaturized, capable and power efficient. There has been a lot of work on battery technology and connectors that are watertight. <a href="https://www.additivemanufacturing.media/articles/autonomous-underwater-vehicle-with-3d-printed-hull-the-cool-parts-show-24">Additive manufacturing and 3D printing also help build hulls</a> and components that can withstand the high pressures at depth at much lower costs.</p>
<p>There has also been great progress toward increasing autonomy using more advanced algorithms, in addition to traditional methods for navigation, localization and detection. For example, machine learning algorithms can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/ICITR49409.2019.9407797">help a vehicle detect and classify objects</a>, whether stationary like a pipeline or mobile like schools of fish. </p>
<h2>What kinds of discoveries have been made using remotely operated and autonomous underwater vehicles?</h2>
<p>One example is underwater gliders. These are buoyancy-driven autonomous underwater vehicles. They can stay in water for months. They can collect data on pressure, temperature and salinity as they go up and down in water. All of these are very helpful for researchers to have an understanding of changes that are happening in oceans. </p>
<p>One of these platforms traveled across the North Atlantic Ocean <a href="https://www.marine.ie/site-area/news-events/news/silbo-autonomous-glider-finds-its-way-ireland-having-travelled-across">from the coast of Massachusetts to Ireland</a> for nearly a year in 2016 and 2017. The amount of data that was captured in that amount of time was unprecedented. To put it in perspective, a vehicle like that costs about $200,000. The operators were remote. Every eight hours the glider came to the surface, got connected to GPS and said, “Hey, I am here,” and the crew basically gave it the plan for the next leg of the mission. If a crewed ship was sent to gather that amount of data for that long it would cost in the millions. </p>
<p>In 2019, researchers used an autonomous underwater vehicle to <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/submarine-under-thwaites-glacier-gauge-rising-seas/">collect invaluable data</a> about the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd7254">seabed beneath the Thwaites glacier</a> in Antarctica.</p>
<p>Energy companies are also using remotely operated and autonomous underwater vehicles for <a href="https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/deepocean-autonomous-drone-offshore/">inspecting and monitoring</a> offshore renewable energy and oil and gas infrastructure on the seabed.</p>
<h2>Where is the technology headed?</h2>
<p>Underwater systems are slow-moving platforms, and if researchers can deploy them in large numbers that would give them an advantage for covering large areas of ocean. A great deal of effort is being put into coordination and fleet-oriented autonomy of these platforms, as well as into advancing data gathering using onboard sensors such as cameras, sonars and dissolved oxygen sensors. Another aspect of advancing vehicle autonomy is real-time underwater decision-making and data analysis.</p>
<h2>What is the focus of your research on these submersibles?</h2>
<p>My team and I focus on developing navigational and mission-planning algorithms for persistent operations, meaning long-term missions with minimal human oversight. The goal is to respond to two of the main constraints in the deployment of autonomous systems. One is battery life. The other is unknown situations. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The author’s research includes a project to allow autonomous underwater vehicles to recharge their batteries without human intervention.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For battery life, we work on at-sea recharging, both underwater and surface water. We are developing tools for autonomous deployment, recovery, recharging and data transfer for longer missions at sea. For unknown situations, we are working on recognizing and avoiding obstacles and adapting to different ocean currents – basically allowing a vehicle to navigate in rough conditions on its own. </p>
<p>To adapt to changing dynamics and component failures, we are working on methodologies to help the vehicle detect the change and compensate to be able to continue and finish the mission.</p>
<p>These efforts will enable long-term ocean studies including observing environmental conditions and mapping uncharted areas.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208326/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nina Mahmoudian receives funding from National Science Foundation and Office of Naval Research. </span></em></p>Dramatic improvements in computing, sensors and submersible engineering are making it possible for researchers to ramp up data collection from the oceans while also keeping people out of harm’s way.Nina Mahmoudian, Associate Professor of Mechanical Engineering, Purdue UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2010882023-03-23T01:45:34Z2023-03-23T01:45:34ZWe were told we’d be riding in self-driving cars by now. What happened to the promised revolution?<p>According to <a href="https://electrek.co/2015/12/21/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-drops-prediction-full-autonomous-driving-from-3-years-to-2/">predictions</a> <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/09/lyfts-president-says-car-ownership-will-all-but-end-by-2025">made</a> nearly a decade ago, we should be riding around in self-driving vehicles today. It’s now clear the autonomous vehicle revolution was overhyped. </p>
<p>Proponents woefully underestimated the technological challenges. It turns out developing a truly driverless vehicle is hard. </p>
<p>The other factor driving the hype was the amount of money being invested in autonomous vehicle startups. By 2021, it was estimated more than <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/02/04/self-driving-cars-why/">US$100 billion</a> in venture capital had gone into developing the technology. </p>
<p>While advances are being made, it is important to understand there are multiple levels of autonomy. Only one is truly driverless. As established by <a href="https://www.sae.org/blog/sae-j3016-update">SAE International</a>, the levels are: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>level 0 — the driver has to undertake all driving tasks</p></li>
<li><p>level 1, hands on/shared control — vehicle has basic driver-assist features such as cruise control and lane-keeping</p></li>
<li><p>level 2, hands off – vehicle has advanced driver-assist features such as emergency braking, adaptive cruise control, auto park assist and traffic-jam assist</p></li>
<li><p>level 3, eyes off — vehicle drives itself some of the time</p></li>
<li><p>level 4, mind off — vehicle drives itself most of the time</p></li>
<li><p>level 5, steering wheel option — vehicle drives itself all the time.</p></li>
</ul>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/billions-are-pouring-into-mobility-technology-will-the-transport-revolution-live-up-to-the-hype-131154">Billions are pouring into mobility technology – will the transport revolution live up to the hype?</a>
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<h2>Why the slow progress?</h2>
<p>It’s estimated the technology to deliver safe autonomous vehicles is about <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/mar/27/how-self-driving-cars-got-stuck-in-the-slow-lane">80% developed</a>. The last 20% is increasingly difficult. It will take a lot more time to perfect.</p>
<p>Challenges yet to be resolved involve unusual and rare events that can happen along any street or highway. They include weather, wildlife crossing the road, and highway construction. </p>
<p>Another set of problems has emerged since <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmainwaring/2022/08/22/cruise-ride-hailing-goes-green-and-driverless/?sh=6a7439376843">Cruise</a> and <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2022/11/19/23467784/waymo-provide-fully-driverless-rides-san-francisco-california">Waymo</a> launched their autonomous ride-hailing services in San Francisco. The US National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2022/12/16/cruises-autonomous-driving-tech-comes-under-scrutiny-from-safety-regulators/">opened an investigation</a> in December 2022, only six months after the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jun/03/california-driverless-taxi-cars-san-francisco">services were approved</a>. It cited incidents where these vehicles “may have engaged in inappropriately hard braking or became immobilized”. </p>
<p>The San Francisco County Transportation Authority <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/01/technology/self-driving-taxi-san-francisco.html">stated</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[I]n the months since the initial approval of autonomous taxi services in June 2022, Cruise AVs have made unplanned and unexpected stops in travel lanes, where they obstruct traffic and transit service and intrude into active emergency response scenes, including fire suppression scenes, creating additional hazardous conditions.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In several cases, Cruise technicians had to be called to move the vehicles.</p>
<h2>What’s happening now?</h2>
<p>Active autonomous vehicle initiatives can be grouped into two categories: ride-hailing services (Cruise, Waymo and Uber) and sales to the public (Tesla). </p>
<p>Cruise is a subsidiary of General Motors founded in 2013. As of September 2022, it operated 100 robotaxis in San Francisco and had plans to increase its fleet to 5,000. Critics said this would increase city traffic. </p>
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<p>Cruise also began to offer services in Chandler (a Phoenix suburb), Arizona, and Austin, Texas, in December 2022. </p>
<p>Waymo, formerly the Google Self-Driving Car Project, was founded in January 2009. The company lost <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2022/11/11/23453262/waymo-av-driverless-taxi-phoenix-california-dmv-progress">US$4.8 billion in 2020 and US$5.2 billion in 2021</a>. </p>
<p>Waymo One provides autonomous ride-hailing services in <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2023/2/28/23617278/waymo-self-driving-driverless-crashes-av">Phoenix as well as San Francisco</a>. It plans to expand into <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2022/10/19/23410677/waymo-los-angeles-autonomous-robotaxi-service-launch">Los Angeles</a> this year. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-cars-what-weve-learned-from-experiments-in-san-francisco-and-phoenix-199319">Driverless cars: what we've learned from experiments in San Francisco and Phoenix</a>
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<p>Uber was a major force in autonomous vehicle development as part of its business plan was to replace human drivers. However, it ran into problems, including a crash in March 2018 when a self-driving Uber killed a woman walking her bicycle across a street in Tempe, Arizona. In 2020, Arizona Uber sold its AV research division to Aurora Innovation. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-self-driving-cars-crash-whos-responsible-courts-and-insurers-need-to-know-whats-inside-the-black-box-180334">When self-driving cars crash, who's responsible? Courts and insurers need to know what's inside the 'black box'</a>
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<p>But in October 2022 Uber got back into autonomous vehicles by <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2022/10/06/motional-and-uber-announce-10-year-deal-to-deploy-automated-vehicles-in-multiple-us-markets/?sh=44d83a84273e">signing a deal</a> with Motional, a joint venture between Hyundai and Aptiv. Motional will provide autonomous vehicles for Uber’s ride-hailing and delivery services.</p>
<p>Lyft, the second-largest ride-sharing company after Uber, operates in the US and Canada. Like Uber, Lyft had a self-driving unit and in 2016, Lyft co-founder John Zimmer <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/09/lyfts-president-says-car-ownership-will-all-but-end-by-2025">predicted</a> that by 2021 the majority of rides on its network would be in such vehicles (and private car ownership would “all but end” by 2025). It didn’t happen. By 2021, Lyft had also <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2021/04/26/lyft-sells-self-driving-unit-to-toyotas-woven-planet-for-550m/">sold its self-driving vehicle unit</a>, to Toyota. </p>
<p>In 2022, Zimmer <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2022/10/20/lyft-co-founder-says-autonomous-vehicles-wont-replace-drivers-for-at-least-a-decade/">said</a> the technology would not replace drivers for at least a decade. However, Lyft did partner with Motional in August 2022 to launch <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/lyft-and-motional-deliver-the-first-rides-in-motionals-new-all-electric-ioniq-5-autonomous-vehicle-301606519.html">robotaxis in Las Vegas</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/lyft-motional-launch-robotaxi-service-los-angeles-2022-11-17/">Los Angeles</a>. </p>
<p>Telsa is the <a href="https://www.ev-volumes.com/">world leader in sales</a> of battery electric vehicles. It also purports to sell vehicles with full automation. However, by the end of 2022, no level 3, 4 or 5 vehicles were for sale in the United States.</p>
<p>What Telsa offers is a full self-driving system as a US$15,000 option. Buyers acknowledge they are buying a beta version and assume all risks. If the system malfunctions, Telsa does not accept any responsibility. </p>
<p>In February 2023, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration <a href="https://amp.theguardian.com/technology/2023/feb/16/tesla-recall-full-self-driving-cars">found</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[Fully self-driving] beta software that allows a vehicle to exceed speed limits or travel through intersections in an unlawful or unpredictable manner increases the risk of a crash. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>This led to Tesla <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/feb/16/tesla-recall-full-self-driving-cars">recalling 362,000 vehicles</a> to update the software. </p>
<p>Another setback for autonomous vehicle sales to the public was the October 2022 announcement that Ford and VW had decided to <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2022/10/26/ford-vw-backed-argo-ai-is-shutting-down/">stop funding autonomous driving technology company Argo AI</a>, resulting in its closure. Both Ford and VW decided to shift their focus from level 4 automation to levels 2 and 3.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/self-driving-cars-are-still-a-long-way-off-here-are-three-reasons-why-159234">'Self-driving' cars are still a long way off. Here are three reasons why</a>
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<h2>So, what can we expect next?</h2>
<p>Autonomous vehicle development will continue, but with less hype. It’s being recognised as more an evolutionary process than a revolutionary one. The increasing cost of capital will also make it harder for autonomous vehicle startups to get development funds. </p>
<p>The areas that appear to be making the best progress are autonomous ride-hailing and heavy vehicles. Self-driving car sales to the public are <a href="https://www.drive.com.au/news/level-4-self-driving-technology-mercedes-benz/">further down the track</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201088/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil G Sipe receives funding from the Australian Research Council Linkage Program. </span></em></p>The autonomous vehicle revolution was, according to its proponents, meant to have transformed daily travel by now. But they underestimated the task of developing a safe, truly driverless vehicle.Neil G Sipe, Honorary Professor of Planning, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2001592023-02-26T15:05:41Z2023-02-26T15:05:41ZCompanies oversell the self-driving capabilities of their cars, with horrific outcomes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511820/original/file-20230222-27-v0xg02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C17%2C2995%2C1706&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tesla recalled hundreds of thousands of its vehicles because of issues with their self-driving features.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Jay Janner/Austin American-Statesman via AP)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/the-news-about-toronto-mayor-john-tory-s-affair-destroyed-his-carefully-cultivated-public-image" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>In mid-February, Tesla announced the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/16/tesla-recalls-362758-vehicles-says-full-self-driving-beta-software-may-cause-crashes.html">recall of over 350,000 vehicles</a> — <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/tesla-recall-full-self-driving-system-canada-1.6751370">more than 20,000 in Canada </a> — due to a problem with its “<a href="https://www.tesla.com/en_eu/support/autopilot">Full Self-Driving Capability</a>” system. This self-driving feature was found to possibly cause vehicles to misbehave when entering intersections or exceed the speed limits, posing a risk for safety.</p>
<p>This is just another instance of vehicles equipped with automated driving technology falling short of their safety expectations. In September 2022, <a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/tesla-driver-appears-to-be-asleep-going-more-than-100-km-h-on-busy-ontario-highway-1.6053530">a driver on the Queen Elizabeth Way near St. Catharines, Ont.,</a> was caught asleep at the wheel of a Tesla. The vehicle appeared to be operated by a semi-automated system with no monitoring from the driver, which is in direct violation of the <a href="https://www.jdpower.com/cars/shopping-guides/levels-of-autonomous-driving-explained">requirements for these systems</a>. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Inside Edition reports on two recent deadly crashes involving Teslas.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Numerous incidents involving Teslas have been <a href="https://nypost.com/2023/02/06/video-shows-tesla-driver-apparently-asleep-at-the-wheel/">reported</a> <a href="https://www.cp24.com/news/tesla-driver-appears-to-be-asleep-as-car-goes-over-100-km-h-on-qew-1.6053558">recently</a>. These incidents occurred so frequently that the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-agency-working-really-fast-nhtsa-autopilot-probe-2023-01-09/">started a formal investigation in August 2021</a>.</p>
<p>Early data show that in a 12-month period, 367 crashes were reported involving semi-automated systems. Of these, 273 crashes alone involved Tesla vehicles. While these numbers are far lower than those involving <a href="https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/early-estimate-2021-traffic-fatalities">all road vehicles</a>, they at least question these systems’ purported safety.</p>
<h2>Driver misconceptions</h2>
<p>Human factors research is <a href="https://www.hslab.org/research">a cross-disciplinary field of study</a> that draws from psychology, engineering and kinesiology. Applying this approach to analyzing and understanding the Tesla crashes reveals that there are several issues contributing to these incidents. </p>
<p>For years, the automotive industry has hinted at the fact that <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2023/01/27/elon-musk-is-being-investigated-by-the-sec-for-tesla-self-driving-claims/">these systems may be more capable than they actually are</a>. For example, referring to these systems with <a href="https://www.aaa.com/autorepair/articles/adas-technology-naming">misleading names</a> — like “autopilot” or “self-driving” — may cause drivers to believe a car can drive without human interventions, while in fact it cannot. </p>
<p>Research also revealed that, when purchasing a new vehicle, about a quarter of drivers never receive any information about the assistance systems available on their vehicle from the dealership. One study found that of the customers that received assistance, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2020.100103">only nine per cent were able to test drive the systems before taking the car home</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511826/original/file-20230222-22-79i90x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a driver in a car looking at a phone while their laptop is on their lap" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511826/original/file-20230222-22-79i90x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511826/original/file-20230222-22-79i90x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511826/original/file-20230222-22-79i90x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511826/original/file-20230222-22-79i90x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511826/original/file-20230222-22-79i90x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511826/original/file-20230222-22-79i90x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511826/original/file-20230222-22-79i90x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Research shows that drivers rely on self-driving features when they believe the road conditions are easy enough for the car to handle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<p>These issues ultimately lead to drivers forming <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1064804620982711">incorrect assumptions of the car’s capabilities</a>. This, in turn, leads drivers to using these vehicles believing that they are more advanced and autonomous than they actually are.</p>
<p>Misconceptions about these systems’ capabilities are more likely to lead to unsafe behaviours when drivers believe the road and traffic conditions are uneventful enough for the system to handle. </p>
<p>In an <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/windsor-university-study-distracted-driving-1.6715465">ongoing study that is among the first in Canada</a>, our research shows that some drivers may “tune out” when operating these vehicles on seemingly uneventful roads with long straight stretches with relatively low traffic volumes. This is because drivers may be inclined to believe that these systems are sufficiently advanced to handle such simple driving tasks.</p>
<h2>Regulating self-driving systems</h2>
<p>Research has pointed at the unintended consequences of these vehicles for years, identifying how <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10447318.2018.1561792">human and technological factors interact with semi-automated systems</a>, with lethal consequences. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.ccmta.ca/web/default/files/PDF/Canadian%20Jurisdictional%20Guidelines%20%20for%20the%20Safe%20%20Testing%20and%20Deployment%20%20of%20Vehicles%20%20Equipped%20with%20Automated%20%20Driving%20Systems%20Version%202.0.pdf">In Canada</a> and <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/sec-probe-elon-musk-link-self-driving-tesla-claims_n_63d493eae4b01e92886b04cd">abroad</a>, governments are now starting to reckon with the sometimes dystopian reality of these vehicles. And they have recognized the need to advance legislative frameworks for the safe deployment and efficient regulation of these systems.</p>
<p>With the Tesla crashes, we are witnessing a push to introduce new technologies for no other reason than its availability, regardless of the impact. We have seen this in other areas, such as aviation.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/human-centred-design-can-help-reduce-accidents-like-the-recent-ethiopian-airlines-boeing-737-crash-113987">Human-centred design can help reduce accidents like the recent Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 crash</a>
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<p>Since 2014, <a href="https://futurism.com/video-elon-musk-promising-self-driving-cars">Elon Musk has promised the arrival of self-driving cars</a>. But they are not here yet. So, with this in mind, what can drivers do? </p>
<p>First, they need to be aware that none of the vehicles on the market today are actually self-driving, regardless of how pricey or advanced they seem — vehicles still require active supervision from a human driver. </p>
<p>Which means that eyes ought to stay on the road, hands must stay on the steering wheel and, more importantly, attention must be paid to the surrounding traffic and road environment at all times.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200159/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francesco Biondi receives funding from the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and the federal government.</span></em></p>Consumers need to be aware that none of the vehicles on the market today are actually self-driving — vehicles still require active supervision from a human driver.Francesco Biondi, Associate Professor, Human Systems Labs, University of WindsorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1933012022-10-27T01:16:50Z2022-10-27T01:16:50ZDrone delivery is a thing now. But how feasible is having it everywhere, and would we even want it?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492012/original/file-20221027-23886-7u3iex.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C238%2C2982%2C2007&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wing</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In recent years, cafes, supermarkets and online shops have started to trial drone delivery in a handful of locations around the world. More than a <a href="https://builtin.com/drones/drone-delivery-companies">dozen drone delivery companies</a> are now running such trials.</p>
<p>Just this week, Wing (owned by Google’s parent company Alphabet) announced a partnership with Australian supermarket giant Coles to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-26/qld-supermarket-drone-delivery-available-gold-coast-/101573808">deliver small items via drone to customers close to a Gold Coast supermarket</a>. Wing is already operating in parts of Canberra and Logan, Queensland. </p>
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<p>Given the technical success of various trials so far, it is worth exploring whether drone delivery might become mainstream and can actually be scaled up geographically.</p>
<p>As you would expect, the answer is “it depends”. There are many issues when considering drones around people, such as safety and infrastructure. For example, a recent <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-30/food-delivery-drone-lands-on-power-lines-qld-browns-plains/101489670">crash of a delivery drone on electricity lines</a> in a suburb of Logan left thousands without power.</p>
<p>There is also potential <a href="https://theconversation.com/drones-to-deliver-incessant-buzzing-noise-and-packages-116257">unwanted noise</a> and visual pollution, and a perceived issue around privacy.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/privatising-the-sky-drone-delivery-promises-comfort-and-speed-but-at-a-cost-to-workers-and-communities-166960">Privatising the sky: drone delivery promises comfort and speed, but at a cost to workers and communities</a>
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<h2>Safety first</h2>
<p>Adding potentially dozens of small aircraft to the sky above our homes, workplaces and roads each day is a serious business. As you would hope, currently the operation of commercial drones is a highly regulated undertaking in most countries. </p>
<p>In Australia, the Civil Aviation Safety Authority <a href="https://www.casa.gov.au/drones/industry-initiatives/drone-delivery-services">has strict regulations</a> that aim to make the operation of drones as safe as possible. They also <em>prohibit</em> drone use if the craft can’t be used safely in a given situation.</p>
<p>In fact, Australia was one of the first countries to have drone regulations. For example, you cannot fly a drone close to an airport, or directly over people.</p>
<p>Commercial operators of drones are acutely aware of this and gain a licence to operate – it is not in anyone’s interest to operate unsafely, and it would be bad for business.</p>
<h2>A limited geographic market – for now</h2>
<p>To satisfy the requirement of operating drones safely, delivery operators focus on flying drones over unpopulated land, generally very low-density areas, and in particular the urban fringe. These are newer suburbs where drone flight paths can be planned to eliminate or minimise safety issues, such as an unexpected crash. </p>
<p>It is no coincidence Wing has been running drone delivery trials in low-density areas of Southeast Queensland, and outer <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6009932/wings-delivery-drone-service-gets-the-green-light/">Canberra suburbs</a>. These places are ideal for drone delivery and a great place to continue to develop this business, even if the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-11/wing-resumes-drone-deliveries-after-raven-attacks/100689690">odd bird attack can disrupt things</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1442603431672225796"}"></div></p>
<p>But drone delivery in dense parts of major cities? This is very unlikely in the medium term, due to extreme difficulty in safely operating drones in dense suburbs.</p>
<p>If you live in an apartment building, where would the delivery take place? On the roof? Maybe, if your building was set up for it. This is where scaling up faces the largest difficulties, and the logistics of running potentially hundreds of drones from a distribution centre become truly challenging.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Zipline and Walmart team up for drone delivery.</span></figcaption>
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<p>However, if there was a high demand for it, and the right investments were made, it is feasible that drone delivery to dense city areas could be achieved.</p>
<p>But just because it might be technically possible, doesn’t mean it <em>will</em> happen. The long-term business case would need to make sense, of course. But there is a more critical issue in the near term – the <a href="https://ethics.org.au/ethics-explainer-social-license-to-operate/">social licence to operate</a>.</p>
<h2>A social licence</h2>
<p>A social licence is not an official thing, a government body does not issue one. It is more about whether the general public accepts and supports the new thing.</p>
<p>At the end of the day, this social acceptance is what often determines the success or failure of widespread uptake of new technology, such as delivery drones. </p>
<p>Take nuclear power, for example. Many countries have nuclear power and the public there seem happy with that. Other countries had a social licence for nuclear power and lost it, such as Japan. In Australia we do not have a social licence for nuclear power, but that does not mean we won’t gain it in the future. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-divestments-to-protests-social-licence-is-the-key-33576">From divestments to protests, social licence is the key</a>
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<p>A social licence is an ever-evolving construct based on the pros and cons of a technology, all of which is influenced by its perceived value. Most people are now seemingly comfortable to be tracked 24 hours a day by their smartphones, as they believe the benefits outweigh the potential negative impacts.</p>
<p>It is likely we already have a solid social licence to use drones to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41591-022-00053-9">deliver emergency life-saving medicine</a> to people in need. In a potential life-or-death situation like that, it is easy to see that normally the benefits outweigh any risks or inconvenience to others.</p>
<p>But delivering a coffee or a tube of toothpaste by drone? I think the social licence for that is up for grabs. At this point in time, it could go either way.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193301/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Roberts is Director of the Australian Cobotics Centre, the Technical Director of the Advanced Robotics for Manufacturing (ARM) Hub, and is a Chief Investigator at the QUT Centre for Robotics. He receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He was the co-founder of the UAV Challenge - an international drone competition.</span></em></p>In a few Australian suburbs, a cup of coffee or toothpaste can now arrive via the air. But that doesn’t mean drones are going to be widespread – for now.Jonathan Roberts, Professor in Robotics, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1868242022-07-25T03:08:36Z2022-07-25T03:08:36Z‘Narco-drones’ are the newest form of drug trafficking. Our laws aren’t yet ready to combat them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474771/original/file-20220719-22-v9kneu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5184%2C3453&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Chris Jackson/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This month, Spanish police authorities <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62040790">seized autonomous underwater vehicles</a>, each capable of transporting around 200 kilograms of drugs. It’s <a href="https://www.metropolinotizie.it/la-droga-la-consegna-il-barchino-con-il-pilota-automatico/">not the first time</a> police authorities have caught an uncrewed vessel carrying illicit substances. </p>
<p>These remote-controlled “narco-drones”, “<a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/02/colombian-navy-catches-narco-submarine-carrying-4-tons-of-cocaine/">narco-subs</a>” or “underwater drones” herald a new era in international drug trafficking. Drugs and other illicit goods can now be transported across the oceans, controlled by a remote operator located anywhere in the world. </p>
<p>Drugs are clandestinely shipped to Australia with traffickers attempting <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-11/drug-smugglers-stash-contraband-ships-hull-australian-ports/101053844?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web">a variety of methods</a>. It’s only a matter of time before Australian Border Force is confronted with these “maritime autonomous vehicles” being used to smuggle contraband into the country. These are ships or underwater vehicles that are remotely controlled or autonomous and don’t have humans on board. </p>
<p>Both international and Australian laws need to catch up.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1544661559804366848"}"></div></p>
<h2>International law isn’t entirely ready for narco-drones</h2>
<p>There isn’t one universal definition of a “ship” or “vessel”. This makes it difficult to know when rights and duties attach to that ship.</p>
<p>China, for example, has a <a href="https://dronedj.com/2021/07/13/its-not-safe-for-subs-in-the-water-china-develops-military-shark-drone/">shark-shaped drone</a> used to gather intelligence. While a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-14/chinese-spy-ship-returns-to-australian-waters/100289192">naval surveillance ship</a> may be entitled to the freedom of navigation, it shouldn’t be presumed that such a small, uncrewed “vehicle” also enjoys this right. </p>
<p>Law enforcement officials are already using uncrewed sea vessels for policing purposes. Australia <a href="https://www.australiandefence.com.au/defence/unmanned/australia-and-sri-lanka-strengthen-ties-over-aerial-drone-surveillance#:%7E:text=At%20a%20virtual%20ceremony%2C%20Commander,crime%20fighting%20in%20Sri%20Lanka.">gifted drones to Sri Lanka</a> last year to support efforts against migrant smuggling operations.</p>
<p>Private companies are designing <a href="https://www.saildrone.com/news/autonomous-vehicles-combat-iuu-fishing#:%7E:text=A%20fleet%20of%20six%20saildrones,large%2Darea%20search%20and%20rescue.">uncrewed surface vehicles</a> for use patrolling against illegal fishing.</p>
<p>The new technology will likely become a critical component for countries wanting better information about who’s doing what and where. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A 'narcosub' found off the coast of Spain" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474773/original/file-20220719-22-d4v6tn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474773/original/file-20220719-22-d4v6tn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474773/original/file-20220719-22-d4v6tn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474773/original/file-20220719-22-d4v6tn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474773/original/file-20220719-22-d4v6tn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474773/original/file-20220719-22-d4v6tn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474773/original/file-20220719-22-d4v6tn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A ‘narco-drone’ found off the coast of Spain.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marta Vázquez Rodríguez/Europa Press via Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Law enforcement</h2>
<p>International law requires states to cooperate and share information to prevent different transnational crimes at sea. For example, Article 108 of the <a href="https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/closindx.htm">UN Convention on the Law of the Sea</a> requires all states to cooperate in the suppression of drug trafficking on the high seas. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/treaties/illicit-trafficking.html?ref=menuside">1988 Drugs Convention</a> goes further, allowing parties to the treaty to stop and board each other’s vessels when they’re reasonably suspected of trafficking in illicit drugs.</p>
<p>However, if there’s no-one onboard a remote-controlled submarine, the existing rules and procedures for law enforcement cannot work as they have before. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/HotTopics/Pages/Autonomous-shipping.aspx">International Maritime Organization</a> is undertaking a study of who is a “master” and “seafarer” in the context of uncrewed surface ships used to transport cargo around the world. While the organisation has an important focus on maritime safety, there are many legal questions relating to crimes at sea that also need to be answered.</p>
<h2>Who’s held criminally responsible?</h2>
<p>Determining who might be held criminally responsible when an uncrewed vessel is seized isn’t immediately apparent.</p>
<p>Australian legislation criminalises drug-trafficking when a “<a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2022C00156/Html/Volume_2#_Toc101884932">person transports the substance</a>” but doesn’t refer to a situation where the person isn’t present at the time of transport. A person isn’t necessarily in “possession” of illicit drugs if they’re remotely controlling a narco-drone.</p>
<p>The alternative may be to prosecute an alleged offender on the grounds they’ve aided and abetted in the crime. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/drug-delivery-drones-shouldnt-surprise-us-smugglers-have-used-everything-else-36637">Drug delivery drones shouldn't surprise us – smugglers have used everything else</a>
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<p>This also raises the question of whether, and how, the designer of an autonomous vehicle may be criminally responsible. For example, what if the person designing the autonomous vehicle didn’t know it was to be used for criminal purposes?</p>
<p>We may need to rethink how we understand criminal recklessness or intention as requirements of a drug-trafficking offence when remote-controlled trafficking occurs.</p>
<p>Designers and manufacturers of maritime autonomous vehicles may need to consider how to safeguard their products against improper use. </p>
<h2>Who has jurisdiction?</h2>
<p>Determining which country has legal jurisdiction when a criminal enterprise uses autonomous narco-subs may be a complex issue.</p>
<p>For example, what if the alleged offender is a Russian national located in Belarus who’s operating the autonomous vehicle to transport drugs from Myanmar to Australia?</p>
<p>Australia doesn’t usually criminalise conduct by foreigners that occurs in the sovereign territory of other countries (the offence of <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2022C00156">killing an Australian overseas</a> being one exception).</p>
<p>In light of uncrewed vessels, states may need to consider new bases of jurisdiction to justify the exercise of authority over an alleged offender.</p>
<p>Even if law enforcement officials manage to arrest the perpetrator and assert jurisdiction, prosecution will likely depend upon a range of other challenges such as criminal intelligence sharing and extradition processes.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1374281009462718465"}"></div></p>
<p>Prior to the recent seizure in Spain of the “narco-drones”, Houthi rebels in the waters around Yemen were using <a href="https://eeradicalization.com/remote-controlled-terror-houthi-suicide-boats/">small remote-controlled vehicles laden with explosives</a> to attack Saudi ships.</p>
<p>This terrorist act potentially falls within the terms of the <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/About/Conventions/Pages/SUA-Treaties.aspx">2005 Convention</a> for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Maritime Navigation. States party to this treaty are to criminalise these sorts of actions and prosecute or extradite those responsible.</p>
<p>But as with drug-trafficking laws, questions arise as to how terrorism laws will apply to the use of these autonomous vessels.</p>
<h2>Destroying narco-drones</h2>
<p>Broader consideration of Australian policing powers is further needed to determine if our laws are fit for purpose in assessing this new security threat.</p>
<p>It’s not entirely clear, for example, that the “seafarer” definition in the <a href="http://www5.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/num_act/na2012123/">Navigation Act</a> could currently cover maritime autonomous vehicle operators. This is because it states: “seafarer means any person who is employed or engaged or works in any capacity (including that of master) <em>on board a vessel</em> on the business of the vessel…”</p>
<p>The simplest response to this new criminal enterprise might be <a href="https://brill.com/view/journals/estu/36/3/article-p389_1.xml">destroying any narco-drones captured at sea</a>. International law doesn’t prohibit such a response, although environmental considerations would likely arise.</p>
<p>In Australia, the <a href="http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdb/au/legis/cth/num_act/mpa2013191/">Maritime Powers Act</a> permits the disposal of vessels at sea only in certain circumstances. But the simple interception and destruction of a narco-drone – with no intention to seize and investigate, or to collect evidence – is likely to require updates to the law.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186824/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natalie Klein receives funding from an Australian Research Council Discovery Project addressing international maritime security law and maritime autonomous vehicles, which is also held by Professor Douglas Guilfoyle at UNSW Canberra and A/Professor Saiful Karim at QUT. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob McLaughlin receives funding from an Australian Research Council Discovery Project addressing international maritime security law and maritime autonomous vehicles, which is also held by Professor Douglas Guilfoyle at UNSW Canberra and A/Professor Saiful Karim at QUT. </span></em></p>International and Australian laws need to be updated to cope with the newest drug-trafficking technique threatening maritime security: remote-controlled narco-drones.Natalie Klein, Professor, UNSW SydneyRob McLaughlin, Professor, Centre for Military and Security Law, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1802612022-04-04T18:00:34Z2022-04-04T18:00:34ZDrones and driverless cars could help with Ukraine’s humanitarian crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455839/original/file-20220401-20-itdkfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=43%2C0%2C4796%2C3187&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/clujnapocaclujromania1511-photo-dji-mavic-pro-2-1855258771">RoClickMag/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to a serious <a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/situations/ukraine-emergency">humanitarian crisis</a>. Of Ukraine’s 44 million people, almost <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/acaps-thematic-report-ukraine-pattern-movement-people-s-needs-and-response-27-march">one-quarter</a> have been displaced. Around 3.7 million have escaped to neighbouring European countries, while around 6.5 million are estimated to be displaced inside Ukraine. Tragically, deaths and injuries continue to rise.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Ukrainians are faced with catastrophic shortages of essential supplies and services. They’re <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/acaps-thematic-report-ukraine-pattern-movement-people-s-needs-and-response-27-march">in need of</a> safe shelter, food, water, access to information, psychosocial support and medicine, especially for chronic diseases (such as insulin to treat diabetes).</p>
<p>To access essential supplies, Ukrainian people urgently need assistance from humanitarian and government organisations. But the volatile situation presents a significant risk for humanitarian aid workers to be on the ground. There is, however, one way we could help Ukrainians while minimising the number of additional lives put in jeopardy: by using drones and autonomous vehicles to deliver aid.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-are-reports-of-russian-troops-mutinying-and-deserting-true-its-happened-before-180435">Ukraine: are reports of Russian troops mutinying and deserting true? It's happened before</a>
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<h2>Drones</h2>
<p>Unmanned aerial vehicles, also known as drones, can be used for transporting supplies, surveillance, and search and rescue in both military and humanitarian setups. Many companies are already <a href="https://www.geospatialworld.net/blogs/drones-for-humanitarian-work/">manufacturing and deploying them</a> in humanitarian operations.</p>
<p>For instance, American robotics company <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/7xj3gd/drones-are-being-tested-in-the-fight-against-a-tuberculosis-epidemic-in-papua-new-guinea">Matternet</a>, in collaboration with Médecins Sans Frontières, has used these intelligent machines in Papua New Guinea to collect sputum samples from remote areas to identify people with tuberculosis. </p>
<p>Canadian drone manufacturer Draganfly <a href="https://www.airmedandrescue.com/latest/news/draganfly-provide-medical-drones-ukraine-non-profit">recently announced</a> that it will send a shipment of its medical response and search and rescue drones to Ukraine, following an order from Revived Soldiers Ukraine, a non-profit organisation focused on providing aid to the country. </p>
<p>These drones will be used to provide humanitarian aid in cities including Kyiv and Kharkiv. The initial shipment will include ten drones which can each transport up to 16 kilograms of medical supplies, including blood, medicines, vaccines, water and wound care kits. </p>
<p>While this is encouraging to see, ten drones at this point is merely a gesture. To make a real impact we need to see more drones from more manufacturers.</p>
<h2>Driverless cars</h2>
<p>Autonomous vehicles are capable of completing complex tasks of driving, delivering and decision making. They can move from point A to point B, transporting people and products without the need for active input from humans.</p>
<p>Yet while drones have come out of the pilot phase and we’ve already seen them used in humanitarian crises, autonomous vehicles are not quite there yet. That said, they have significant potential in this context.</p>
<p>Autonomous vehicles have been employed in military situations, such as by the US military <a href="https://singularityhub.com/2011/08/12/autonomous-robot-truck-will-debut-in-afghanistan-this-year/">in Afghanistan</a>. Their functions have ranged from removing landmines to payload deliveries. We’re now also seeing these vehicles used in industrial settings. Automated guided vehicles are most often used to move materials around manufacturing facilities <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/amazon-warehouse-robots/">or warehouses</a>, where they follow markers or wires in the floor.</p>
<p>What’s more, autonomous vehicles are being tested on real roads and highways. Auto manufacturers like <a href="https://www.volvogroup.com/en/news-and-media/news/2018/jun/news-2971141.html">Volvo</a>, <a href="https://www.mercedes-benz.com/en/innovation/autonomous/the-long-haul-truck-of-the-future/">Mercedes</a> and <a href="https://insideevs.com/news/482769/semi-first-fully-autonomous-tesla/">Tesla</a> have all tested some level of autonomous technology in their futuristic vehicles with a view to revolutionising the logistics and transport sector. </p>
<p>Humanitarian logistics is essentially a needs-driven, time-critical extension of commercial logistics. Seeing this technology in action in the commercial sector should pave the path for its adoption in the humanitarian context, and Ukraine may have a role to play here. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-aid-workers-were-forced-out-of-syria-the-same-thing-could-happen-in-this-war-179781">Ukraine: aid workers were forced out of Syria – the same thing could happen in this war</a>
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<h2>Putting the technology into action</h2>
<p>Academics and small businesses have expressed support for the use of both autonomous vehicles <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542660521000780">and drones</a> to deliver humanitarian assistance. As shown in the conceptual model below, the vehicles could bring medical supplies, food and other essentials to a designated safe point in bulk. Drones could then transport these goods further into the conflict zone to specific locations where people are hiding.</p>
<p><strong>How it could work</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456118/original/file-20220404-24-q6z04v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456118/original/file-20220404-24-q6z04v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456118/original/file-20220404-24-q6z04v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456118/original/file-20220404-24-q6z04v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456118/original/file-20220404-24-q6z04v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456118/original/file-20220404-24-q6z04v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456118/original/file-20220404-24-q6z04v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Muhammad Azmat</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>In our research with representatives from international humanitarian organisations (conducted before the Ukraine war), they agreed that combining <a href="https://ajssr.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s41180-020-0033-7">these two systems</a> could mitigate logistical challenges and save lives. However, they were reluctant about using autonomous vehicles at this stage given the technology is still at the research and development phase. In the short term, they were more interested in using using drones in humanitarian operations (with some having already begun pilot projects).</p>
<p>But autonomous vehicles have been tested in supervised situations, and testing them in the field is the next important step. Trialling these vehicles in the current situation in Ukraine could not only provide much needed aid to Ukrainians, but could help improve the autonomous systems for future deployments.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-crisis-why-you-should-donate-money-rather-than-supplies-178245">Ukraine crisis: why you should donate money rather than supplies</a>
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<p>Importantly, there are still <a href="https://www.unocha.org/fr/publication/policy-briefs-studies/unmanned-aerial-vehicles-humanitarian-response">certain caveats</a> that limit using both of these technologies to their full potential. These include legal issues, regulatory challenges, cybersecurity threats, the need for community engagement, and ethical procurement and partnerships. </p>
<p>The relevant regulatory bodies and the scientific community should take immediate steps towards addressing these challenges. Drawing up a universal code of conduct or standard operating procedure for deploying autonomous vehicles and drones in humanitarian settings would be a good start.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180261/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Muhammad Azmat does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Where it’s risky for aid workers to be on the ground, technology could help.Muhammad Azmat, Lecturer, Engineering Systems & Supply Chain Management, Aston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1738192022-01-28T13:28:59Z2022-01-28T13:28:59ZDriverless cars won’t be good for the environment if they lead to more auto use<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442036/original/file-20220121-15-vbuwo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C16%2C5431%2C3615&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Self-driving cars could lead to increased traffic and pollution if they spur more travel by car.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/electric-car-concept-running-on-the-road-royalty-free-image/1331123162">Witthaya Prasongsin via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For years, self-driving car technology has remained tantalizingly just beyond the horizon. <a href="https://www.autoblog.com/2019/04/22/elon-musk-tesla-driverless-taxis-self-driving-chip/">Bold predictions notwithstanding</a>, fully automated vehicles still haven’t appeared in showrooms. But the technology appears poised for a leap forward in 2022. </p>
<p>Companies including <a href="https://insideevs.com/news/553659/mercedes-level3-autonomous-driving-2022/">Mercedes-Benz</a>, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/wheels/features/bmw-7-series-level-3-autonomy/">BMW</a> and <a href="https://www.kbb.com/car-advice/self-driving-cars/">Honda</a> are bringing so-called Level 3 AVs to market that will let drivers take their hands off the wheel under specific conditions, and virtually every major auto manufacturer is testing self-driving systems. </p>
<p>Automated vehicles hold tremendous promise. Cars that <a href="https://www.jdpower.com/cars/shopping-guides/levels-of-autonomous-driving-explained">handle most or all of the driving tasks</a> could be safer than human drivers, operate more efficiently and open up new opportunities for seniors, people with disabilities and others who can’t drive themselves. But while attention has understandably <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-tempe-fatality-self-driving-car-developers-must-engage-with-public-now-or-risk-rejection-93681">focused on safety</a>, the potential environmental impacts of automated vehicles have largely taken a back seat.</p>
<p>We study <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=1LqIMYwAAAAJ&hl=en">automated vehicle technologies</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.co.uk/citations?user=8Xi0fvEAAAAJ&hl=en">how consumers are likely to use them</a>. In two recent studies, our research teams found two creative ways to assess the real-life impacts that automated vehicles could have on the environment. </p>
<p>By analyzing drivers’ use of partially automated vehicles and simulating the expected impact of future driverless vehicles, we found that both automated vehicle types will encourage a lot more driving. This will increase transportation-related pollution and traffic congestion, unless regulators take steps to make car travel less appealing.</p>
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<h2>More miles, more carbon emissions</h2>
<p>Research has previously suggested that automated vehicles could cause people to drive more than they currently do, leading to <a href="https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9g12v6r0">more congestion, energy consumption and pollution</a>. Riding in a car as a passenger is much less stressful than driving, so people might be willing to sit through longer trips and battle more traffic if they can relax and do other things during the journey. The promise of a relaxed, comfortable commute to work could even make some people move farther away from their workplaces and accelerate suburban sprawl trends.</p>
<p>People would also have the ability to send their cars on “zero-occupancy” trips, or errands without passengers. For example, if you don’t want to pay for parking downtown, at some point you may be able to send your car back home while you’re at work and summon it when you need it. Convenient, but also twice the driving.</p>
<p>This could be a big problem. The transportation sector is already <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emissions">the leading contributor to U.S. greenhouse gas emissions</a>. States like California with aggressive plans to combat climate change have recognized that <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/documents/carb-2017-scoping-plan-identified-vmt-reductions-and-relationship-state-climate">reducing the number of vehicles miles that people travel</a> is a critical strategy. What if automated vehicle technology makes it harder to achieve these goals?</p>
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<h2>The real-world environmental impacts of automated cars</h2>
<p>While we and other researchers have <a href="https://ncst.ucdavis.edu/project/emission-impacts-connected-and-automated-vehicle-deployment-california">predicted these outcomes through modeling</a>, no one has been able to verify them because fully automated vehicles aren’t commercially available yet. We found two innovative ways to use currently available technologies to study the real-world impacts of automated vehicles.</p>
<p>In a study published in mid-2021, we surveyed 940 <a href="https://doi.org/10.7922/G2XK8CVB">people who drive partially automated vehicles</a>. Systems like <a href="https://www.tesla.com/en_AE/support/autopilot-and-full-self-driving-capability">Tesla’s Autopilot</a> can assist with driving tasks and reduce the burden of driving, although to a lesser degree than fully automated vehicles will. </p>
<p>We found that drivers who used Autopilot drove an average of <a href="https://itspubs.ucdavis.edu/publication_detail.php?id=3408">nearly 5,000 more miles per year than those who didn’t</a>. In interviews with 36 drivers of partially automated vehicles, they generally said they were more willing to sit in traffic and took more long-distance trips, all because of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2021.102884">increased comfort and reduced stress</a> provided by semi-automated systems.</p>
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<p>In a separate study conducted in late 2019 and early 2020, we simulated the function of a fully automated vehicle by providing 43 households in Sacramento, California, with a chauffeur service to take over the family driving duties and tracking how they used it. These households <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/03611981211052543">increased their vehicle miles traveled by 60%</a> over their pre-chauffeur travel, and dramatically reduced their use of transit, bicycling and walking. More than half of the increase in vehicle travel involved sending chauffeurs on zero-occupancy trips without a household member in the car.</p>
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<h2>Limiting pollution from automated car use</h2>
<p>These findings show that automated vehicles will encourage a lot more driving in the future and that partially automated vehicles are doing so now. Is there any way to reap its benefits without making climate change, air quality, and congestion worse? </p>
<p>Requiring future automated vehicles to use zero-emission technology, <a href="https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=202120220SB500">as California is doing</a>, can be a big help. But until the U.S. develops a <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/12/08/fact-sheet-president-biden-signs-executive-order-catalyzing-americas-clean-energy-economy-through-federal-sustainability/">100% carbon-free electricity system</a>, even electric cars will produce some upstream emissions from power generation. And all car travel causes <a href="https://ncst.ucdavis.edu/project/what-california-gains-reducing-car-dependence">other harmful impacts</a>, such as water and air pollution from brake and tire wear, collisions with wildlife and traffic congestion.</p>
<p>To prevent an explosion in driving and associated harms, regulators and communities need to send signals that driving isn’t free. They could do this by putting a price on car travel – particularly on zero-occupancy trips. </p>
<p>The main policies that have this effect today are <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=10&t=5">federal and state fuel taxes</a>, which currently average around 49 cents per gallon for gasoline and 55 cents per gallon for diesel fuel. But the impact of fuel taxes on drivers’ behavior will decline with the adoption and spread of electric vehicles. This means that the transportation sector will need to develop new funding mechanisms for ongoing costs like maintaining roads. </p>
<p>In place of fuel taxes, state and federal governments could adopt user fees or charges for the number of vehicle miles that drivers travel. Correctly pricing the cost of private vehicle travel could encourage travelers to consider cheaper and more efficient modes, such as public transit, walking and bicycling.</p>
<p>These fees could be adjusted based on location – for example, charging more to drive into dense city centers – or other factors such as time of day, traffic congestion levels, vehicle occupancy and vehicle type. Modern communication technologies can enable such policies by tracking where and when cars are on the roads.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442063/original/file-20220122-19-bku97e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A car approaches an overhead billboard displaying time of day and prices for cars and trucks to enter the regulated zone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442063/original/file-20220122-19-bku97e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442063/original/file-20220122-19-bku97e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442063/original/file-20220122-19-bku97e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442063/original/file-20220122-19-bku97e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442063/original/file-20220122-19-bku97e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442063/original/file-20220122-19-bku97e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442063/original/file-20220122-19-bku97e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Singapore uses electronic road pricing to reduce congestion and regulate traffic flow in the city. The cost to enter the restricted zone varies with location and timing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.co.uk/detail/photo/singapore-electronic-road-pricing-royalty-free-image/1005214292">Calvin Chan Wai Meng via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another option would be to promote shared fleets of automated vehicles rather than privately owned ones. We envision these as commercial companies, similar to Uber, Lyft and other ride-sharing providers. Having a car available when needed could make it possible to forgo car ownership and could serve travel demand much more efficiently by essentially acting as on-demand transit. These networks could also help riders reach fixed-route public transportation services that operate on main transportation corridors.</p>
<p>All of these policies will be most effective if they are adopted now, before automated vehicles are widespread. A transportation future that is automated, electric and shared could be environmentally sustainable – but in our view, it’s unlikely to evolve that way on its own.</p>
<p>[<em>Understand new developments in science, health and technology, each week.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=science&source=inline-science-understand">Subscribe to The Conversation’s science newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173819/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Giovanni Circella receives funding from the California Air Resources Board, the Southern California Association of Governments, the Bay Area Rapid Transit, the BMW Group, Ford, and the US Department of Transportation and the California Department of Transportation through the National Center for Sustainable Transportation. He directs the 3 Revolutions Future Mobility Program at the University of California, Davis, which is funded through a consortium of research sponsors (<a href="https://3rev.ucdavis.edu/researchsponsors">https://3rev.ucdavis.edu/researchsponsors</a>), including some of the automakers mentioned in this article. He is the Chair of the AEP35 Standing Committee of the Transportation Research Board and an elected member of the International Association for Travel Behaviour Research (IATBR). He is also affiliated with the Georgia Institute of Technology, where he is a senior research engineer in the School of Civil and Environmental Engineering. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott Hardman receives funding from the California Air Resources Board, the California Department of Transportation and the U.S. Department of Transportation.</span></em></p>Studies show that when people can ride in a car without having to operate it, they increase their car use. That could increase traffic and pollution, unless government puts a price on car travel.Giovanni Circella, Director, 3 Revolutions Future Mobility Program, University of California, DavisScott Hardman, Professional Researcher, Plug-in Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Research Center, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1669602021-10-04T04:20:44Z2021-10-04T04:20:44ZPrivatising the sky: drone delivery promises comfort and speed, but at a cost to workers and communities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424118/original/file-20211001-18-kz3xmc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2000%2C1119&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wing</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Drone delivery company <a href="https://wing.com/en_au/">Wing</a> recently celebrated 100,000 deliveries with an unusual <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/25/alphabet-wing-drones-delivered-10000-cups-of-coffee-in-the-last-year.html">burst</a> of <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2021/8/25/22640833/drone-delivery-google-alphabet-wing-milestone">media</a> <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/90669760/alphabet-wing-drones-chicken-delivery">fanfare</a>. Australia is at the forefront of Wing’s plans, with the company’s two biggest trial sites running in Canberra and Logan in Queensland.</p>
<p>Wing tells a simple story of barista coffee and roast chooks dropped on your driveway at a moment’s notice. Short on Vegemite for the kids’ brekky? Hop on the app, order, and a drone will lower a new jar to your doorstep before the toast is cool. All quick, contactless, and COVID-safe. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4xrCuPACmq8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>But the real story is much more complex. Drone delivery at scale will transform the skies, change expectations for speedy delivery, and hide the labour that makes it possible.</p>
<p>Owned by Alphabet, the parent company of Google, Wing has huge resources. New drone regulations are already being written, and Wing is setting itself up to be the backbone of a new aerial infrastructure.</p>
<h2>How Wing works</h2>
<p>Wing operates much like many app delivery platforms. After signing up, customers use the smartphone app to place their orders. Orders are then packed at local base stations and flown to their destinations by Wing’s drones. On arrival, the packages are lowered to customers by winch, automatically detaching from the drone before it returns to the base station.</p>
<p>Unlike the hobby drones you might see above parks and beaches, Wing’s delivery drones can operate out of the operator’s line of sight. Flight is fully autonomous, with one pilot monitoring several flights at once and able to take over or land if necessary. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424127/original/file-20211001-19-15vta70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424127/original/file-20211001-19-15vta70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424127/original/file-20211001-19-15vta70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424127/original/file-20211001-19-15vta70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424127/original/file-20211001-19-15vta70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424127/original/file-20211001-19-15vta70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424127/original/file-20211001-19-15vta70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A promotional video shows a Wing delivery drone in action.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wing</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>How that will scale up in volume and frequency isn’t clear. So far, the trial sites in Canberra and Logan offer clear and uncomplicated airspace and a flat, regular urban environment. </p>
<p>For customers, all this promises a swift, seamless and contactless experience. </p>
<p>Deloitte’s <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/economic-benefit-analysis-of-drones-to-australia-final-report.pdf">economic modelling on the drone industry</a> in Australia notes that drones enable further automation of work. But behind every promise of “autonomous” or “automated” technology are <a href="https://reallifemag.com/potemkin-ai/">hidden human workers</a>. </p>
<h2>Whose labour does it save?</h2>
<p>One of Wing’s major promises is unbelievably fast delivery on demand. Wing boasts an average delivery time of roughly 10 minutes. Their quickest time recorded – from order placement to product in hand – is <a href="https://wing.com/en_au/how-it-works/">2 minutes and 47 seconds</a>. </p>
<p>This is a remarkable acceleration in the pace and expectation of delivery. Ordinary mail might take days or weeks, but thanks to the “<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbescommunicationscouncil/2018/02/22/what-the-amazon-effect-means-for-retailers/?sh=768479f12ded">Amazon effect</a>” private delivery services have already <a href="https://theconversation.com/coles-and-woolworths-are-moving-to-robot-warehouses-and-on-demand-labour-as-home-deliveries-soar-166556">shifted expectations</a> from next-day to same-day and now even one or two hours. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424142/original/file-20211001-25-43001e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424142/original/file-20211001-25-43001e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424142/original/file-20211001-25-43001e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424142/original/file-20211001-25-43001e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424142/original/file-20211001-25-43001e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424142/original/file-20211001-25-43001e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424142/original/file-20211001-25-43001e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘Fully autonomous’ delivery is only made possible by hidden human labour.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wing</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While Wing’s drones are autonomous, the service still relies on human labour. Pilots monitor flight paths, packers parcel up the products, and maintenance staff take care of the hardware and software. All of these workers must perform to satisfy the 10 minute delivery time. </p>
<p>Amazon warehouses and food delivery apps have shown us how such punishing timelines can be <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/feb/05/amazon-workers-protest-unsafe-grueling-conditions-warehouse">dangerous for worker safety</a> and devastating for morale. For precariously employed or gig economy workers, missing targets can mean <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/uber-fired-algorithm">instant termination</a>. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/they-track-our-every-move-why-the-cards-were-stacked-against-a-union-at-amazon-159531">'They track our every move': why the cards were stacked against a union at Amazon</a>
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<p>And the repercussions of 10-minute delivery may spread beyond Wing. If consumer expectations change, rival delivery companies (who may not be using automated drones) will feel pressure to keep pace.</p>
<p>Deloitte modelling from 2020 suggests drone delivery could cost less than half the current rate of an e-bike delivery. In the Canberra trial, some products at least are delivered for the same as in-store prices. How those delivery costs will be distributed between Wing, businesses, workers and customers once the pilot programs are over, however, is unclear — but if the likes of UberEats are anything to go by, it may well end up being businesses and especially delivery workers who carry most of the cost.</p>
<h2>Closing the sky</h2>
<p>Drone delivery may also have hidden environmental costs. Keeping cars and trucks off the road might <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-02411-5">cut energy consumption</a>, but mining lithium for batteries and supplying <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/14614448211017887">energy for data centres</a> may reduce or eliminate those gains.</p>
<p>Getting sandwiches via drone could also mean more packaging and waste, as well as potential risks to birds and habitats from heavy aerial traffic. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424352/original/file-20211003-14-k8pkf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424352/original/file-20211003-14-k8pkf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424352/original/file-20211003-14-k8pkf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424352/original/file-20211003-14-k8pkf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424352/original/file-20211003-14-k8pkf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424352/original/file-20211003-14-k8pkf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424352/original/file-20211003-14-k8pkf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424352/original/file-20211003-14-k8pkf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ravens in Canberra have taken to attacking Wing’s delivery drones.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAshKROIjtQ">Ben Roberts / YouTube</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But a bigger question for the public is about the skies above our heads. Do we want to live under a cloud of drones? </p>
<p>At present, most of the time people are free to enjoy the skies above their homes and communities. Kids can fly kites and enthusiasts can fly their own drones. Drone delivery risks privatising a new layer of that common space, and handing it over to Alphabet and others. </p>
<h2>Building the legal and technical architecture to control the skies</h2>
<p>To privatise a new part of the sky, Australia’s drone regulations will have to change. The current rules are highly restrictive, built from a patchwork of international, federal and state laws developed primarily for aeroplanes.</p>
<p>Apart from hobbyists with constant line of sight, operating in limited times and places, each drone use requires explicit permission from the <a href="https://www.casa.gov.au/drones/industry-initiatives/drone-delivery-systems">Civil Aviation Safety Authority</a>. </p>
<p>New commercial applications are pushing this system beyond breaking point. They often require operation beyond visual line of sight, near populated areas, in a broad range of conditions, and without constant pilot supervision. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424165/original/file-20211001-27-4kj7uu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424165/original/file-20211001-27-4kj7uu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424165/original/file-20211001-27-4kj7uu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424165/original/file-20211001-27-4kj7uu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424165/original/file-20211001-27-4kj7uu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424165/original/file-20211001-27-4kj7uu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424165/original/file-20211001-27-4kj7uu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A worker waits to attach a delivery to a drone.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wing</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Bouyed by economic modelling from Deloitte suggesting the drone industry could be worth around $15 billion by 2040 (with e-commerce and deliveries making up about $600 million), the Australian government is pushing to modernise drone regulation. This means reappraising rules around environmental impacts, noise, safety, insurance, security and privacy.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/aviation/technology/files/attachment-a-ris-amend-regs-5-august-2021.pdf">resulting changes</a> will benefit different companies and business models. For example, more flexible noise standards will benefit commercial applications like delivery. This means the big question is how different stakeholders are influencing the development of these new laws. </p>
<h2>Capturing the standards for unmanned traffic management</h2>
<p>Alongside <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/aviation/technology/files/national-emerging-aviation-technologies-policy-statement.pdf">new regulations</a>, new digital infrastructures are being developed to manage increasingly congested and “automated” skyways. </p>
<p>Wing is heavily involved, providing a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-29/alphabet-jumps-into-drone-air-traffic-control-with-flight-app">flight planning and safety app</a> for drone operators, a system for remote drone identification, and an “<a href="https://wing.com/en_au/unmanned-traffic-management/">unmanned traffic management</a>” service. </p>
<p>Owning the broader traffic management system is clearly part of the long-term business strategy. As Google has shown with its Android operating system, building infrastructure (even if it’s open source) can create a real commercial advantage. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-age-of-drones-has-arrived-quicker-than-the-laws-that-govern-them-47024">The age of drones has arrived quicker than the laws that govern them</a>
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<p>Wing’s approach fits neatly with the Australian government’s desire for a market-based strategy to develop and implement its <a href="https://www.casa.gov.au/drones/industry-initiatives/digital-platform">first unmanned traffic management system</a> over the next 5 years. The trial programs in Canberra and Logan will help the company develop more comprehensive skyway traffic platforms that will govern airspace safety, communications standards, data management, and everything else needed to keep autonomous aerial commerce ticking over. </p>
<p>Policymakers know commercial development of communication infrastructure creates competition risks. However, they may not have the tools and expertise to enforce equal and fair access to skyway infrastructure. </p>
<p>And at present, the fundamental question of whether we <em>want</em> drone deliveries crowding our sky at all is completely off the table.</p>
<h2>Taking flight</h2>
<p>As we have seen with the likes of Uber and Airbnb, reining in tech companies once they are already running is hard. With Australia modernizing its aviation laws, Wing is well positioned to protect its agenda and make itself essential to future evolutions of the law. </p>
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic is also helping companies like Wing to accelerate their agenda, as they can promise less congestion, less consumer mobility, and less social contact. </p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coles-and-woolworths-are-moving-to-robot-warehouses-and-on-demand-labour-as-home-deliveries-soar-166556">Coles and Woolworths are moving to robot warehouses and on-demand labour as home deliveries soar</a>
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<p>While city skies crowded with delivery drones might be far away, the groundwork is being laid right now. Communities, businesses and workers need to be a much bigger part of the process of deciding if they want that future. </p>
<p>Getting sushi delivered by drone for lunch might seem like a neat idea, but the real price may have little to do with what gets charged to your card.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166960/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Richardson receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jake Goldenfein is supported by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision-Making & Society. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thao Phan is employed in the ARC Centre of Excellence on Automated Decision-Making & Society</span></em></p>Drone delivery company Wing is out to transform the sky – and Australia is at the forefront of its plans.Michael Richardson, Senior Research Fellow, UNSW SydneyJake Goldenfein, Senior Lecturer, The University of MelbourneThao Phan, Research Fellow, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1663072021-08-23T12:05:42Z2021-08-23T12:05:42ZWhy Tesla’s Autopilot crashes spurred the feds to investigate driver-assist technologies – and what that means for the future of self-driving cars<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417112/original/file-20210819-23-izpx1u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5184%2C3453&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tesla's Autopilot enables hands-free driving, but it's not meant to allow drivers to take their eyes off the road.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flickr.com/photos/generationstrom/41607991164/">Marcus Zacher/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s hard to miss the flashing lights of fire engines, ambulances and police cars ahead of you as you’re driving down the road. But in at least 11 cases from January 2018 to July 2021, Tesla’s Autopilot advanced driver-assistance system did just that. This led to <a href="https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2021/INOA-PE21020-1893.PDF">11 accidents in which Teslas crashed</a> into emergency vehicles or other vehicles at those scenes, resulting in 17 injuries and one death.</p>
<p>In August 2021, the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration <a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a37320725/nhtsa-investigating-tesla-autopilot-crashes-fatalities/">launched an investigation</a> into Tesla’s Autopilot system in response to the crashes. The incidents took place in Arizona, California, Connecticut, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/17/business/tesla-autopilot-accident.html">Florida</a>, Indiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, North Carolina and Texas. It’s also <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/25/21152984/tesla-autopilot-safety-recommendations-ignored-ntsb-crash-hearing">not the first time</a> the federal government has investigated Tesla’s Autopilot.</p>
<p>The National Highway Transportation Safety Administration announced on June 9, 2022 that it has broadened its investigation of Tesla’s Autopilot <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/09/business/tesla-autopilot-nhtsa-investigation.html">to look at 830,000 2014 to 2021 Model S, X, 3 and Y Tesla cars</a> sold in the U.S., virtually every car the company has made since 2014. Also, there were an <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-09/tesla-autopilot-scrutiny-escalates-as-us-upgrades-expands-probe?sref=Hjm5biAW">additional three incidents</a> involving Tesla cars crashing into first responder vehicles since the August 2021 report.</p>
<p>On June 15, 2022, the administration also <a href="https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/initial-data-release-advanced-vehicle-technologies">released data about crashes</a> from July 1, 2021 through May 15, 2022 involving cars equipped with advanced driver-assist systems from all carmakers. The data, collected in response to the investigation of Tesla cars, showed that there were 367 crashes in cars with driver-assist technology in use over that 10 month period, including six deaths and five serious injuries. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=GJaAw1EAAAAJ&hl=en">researcher who studies autonomous vehicles</a>, I believe the investigation will put pressure on Tesla to reevaluate the technologies the company uses in Autopilot and could influence the future of driver-assistance systems and autonomous vehicles.</p>
<h2>How Tesla’s Autopilot works</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.tesla.com/support/autopilot">Tesla’s Autopilot</a> uses cameras, radar and ultrasonic sensors to support two major features: Traffic-Aware Cruise Control and Autosteer.</p>
<p>Traffic-Aware Cruise Control, also known as adaptive cruise control, maintains a safe distance between the car and other vehicles that are driving ahead of it. This technology primarily uses cameras in conjunction with artificial intelligence algorithms to detect surrounding objects such as vehicles, pedestrians and cyclists, and estimate their distances. Autosteer uses cameras to detect clearly marked lines on the road to keep the vehicle within its lane.</p>
<p>In addition to its Autopilot capabilities, Tesla has been offering what it calls “full self-driving” features that include <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KeQm0L5UicM">autopark</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0hfOZqf-PA">auto lane change</a>. Since its first offering of the Autopilot system and other self-driving features, Tesla has consistently warned users that these technologies require active driver supervision and that these features do not make the vehicle autonomous.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417113/original/file-20210819-27-13xp50i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Screenshot of a display with the left third showing an icon of a car on a road and the right to third showing a map" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417113/original/file-20210819-27-13xp50i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417113/original/file-20210819-27-13xp50i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417113/original/file-20210819-27-13xp50i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417113/original/file-20210819-27-13xp50i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417113/original/file-20210819-27-13xp50i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417113/original/file-20210819-27-13xp50i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417113/original/file-20210819-27-13xp50i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Tesla’s Autopilot display shows the driver where the car thinks it is in relation to the road and other vehicles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flickr.com/photos/rosenfeldmedia/50511890906/">Rosenfeld Media/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Tesla is beefing up the AI technology that underpins Autopilot. The company announced on Aug. 19, 2021, that it is <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/19/tesla-unveils-dojo-d1-chip-at-ai-day.html">building a supercomputer using custom chips</a>. The supercomputer will help train Tesla’s AI system to recognize objects seen in video feeds collected by cameras in the company’s cars.</p>
<h2>Autopilot does not equal autonomous</h2>
<p>Advanced driver-assistance systems have been supported on a wide range of vehicles for many decades. The Society of Automobile Engineers divides the degree of a vehicle’s automation into <a href="https://www.sae.org/standards/content/j3016_201806/">six levels</a>, starting from Level 0, with no automated driving features, to Level 5, which represents full autonomous driving with no need for human intervention.</p>
<p>Within these six levels of autonomy, there is a clear and vivid divide between Level 2 and Level 3. In principle, at Levels 0, 1 and 2, the vehicle should be primarily controlled by a human driver, with some assistance from driver-assistance systems. At Levels 3, 4 and 5, the vehicle’s AI components and related driver-assistance technologies are the primary controller of the vehicle. For example, Waymo’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/robot-take-the-wheel-waymo-has-launched-a-self-driving-taxi-service-147908">self-driving taxis</a>, which operate in the Phoenix area, are Level 4, which means they operate without human drivers but only under certain weather and traffic conditions.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">News coverage of a Tesla driving in Autopilot mode that crashed into the back of a stationary police car.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Tesla Autopilot is considered a Level 2 system, and hence the primary controller of the vehicle should be a human driver. This provides a partial explanation for the incidents cited by the federal investigation. Though Tesla says it expects drivers to be alert at all times when using the Autopilot features, some drivers treat the Autopilot as having autonomous driving capability with little or no need for human monitoring or intervention. This discrepancy between Tesla’s instructions and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1145/3409120.3410644">driver behavior</a> seems to be a factor in the incidents under investigation. </p>
<p>Another possible factor is how Tesla ensures that drivers are paying attention. Earlier versions of Tesla’s Autopilot <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-considered-adding-eye-tracking-and-steering-wheel-sensors-to-autopilot-system-1526302921?mod=e2tw">were ineffective in monitoring driver attention</a> and engagement level when the system is on. The company instead relied on requiring drivers to periodically move the steering wheel, which can be done without watching the road. Tesla announced in 2021 that it has begun using <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/28/tesla-starts-using-cabin-cameras-for-driver-monitoring.html">internal cameras to monitor drivers’ attention</a> and alert drivers when they are inattentive.</p>
<p>Another equally important factor contributing to Tesla’s vehicle crashes is the company’s choice of sensor technologies. Tesla has consistently <a href="https://venturebeat.com/2021/07/03/tesla-ai-chief-explains-why-self-driving-cars-dont-need-lidar/">avoided the use of lidar</a>. In simple terms, <a href="https://www.autoweek.com/news/a36190274/what-lidar-is/">lidar is like radar</a> but with lasers instead of radio waves. It’s capable of precisely detecting objects and estimating their distances. Virtually all other major companies working on autonomous vehicles, including Waymo, Cruise, Volvo, Mercedes, Ford and GM, are using lidar as an essential technology for enabling automated vehicles to perceive their environments. </p>
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<p>By relying on cameras, Tesla’s Autopilot is prone to potential failures caused by challenging lighting conditions, such as glare and darkness. In its announcement of the Tesla investigation, the NHTSA reported that most incidents occurred after dark where there were flashing emergency vehicle lights, flares or other lights. Lidar, in contrast, can operate under any lighting conditions and can “see” in the dark.</p>
<h2>Fallout from the investigation</h2>
<p>The investigation could eventually lead to changes in future versions of Tesla’s Autopilot and its other self-driving systems. The investigation might also indirectly have a broader impact on the deployment of future autonomous vehicles. In particular, the investigation may reinforce the need for lidar. </p>
<p>Although reports in May 2021 indicated that <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-24/tesla-testing-luminar-laser-sensor-musk-called-fool-s-errand">Tesla was testing lidar sensors</a>, it’s not clear whether the company was quietly considering the technology or using it to validate their existing sensor systems. Tesla CEO Elon Musk called lidar “<a href="https://techcrunch.com/2019/04/22/anyone-relying-on-lidar-is-doomed-elon-musk-says/">a fool’s errand</a>” in 2019, saying it’s expensive and unnecessary.</p>
<p>However, just as Tesla is revisiting systems that monitor driver attention, the NHTSA investigation could push the company to consider adding lidar or similar technologies to future vehicles.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article originally published on August 23, 2021.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166307/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hayder Radha’s research is supported by funding from Ford, GM, Semiconductor Research Corporation (SRC), and MSU Foundation. In past years, funding was received from National Science Foundation, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft as well. </span></em></p>An autonomous vehicle expert explains how Tesla’s Autopilot works, what prompted US authorities to investigate the system and what changes might be in store for the company.Hayder Radha, Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1626462021-06-16T20:06:07Z2021-06-16T20:06:07ZWhy we still don’t have self-driving cars on the roads in 2021<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406831/original/file-20210616-15-1s326w5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C23%2C7964%2C5305&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The 21st century promised self-driving cars, but will they actually materialize?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Do you remember the time when self-driving cars were upon us? It was almost a decade ago when the Autonomous Vehicle division at Google (now Waymo) promised a world where people would be chauffeured around by self-driving robot cars. </p>
<p>We were shown computer renderings of <a href="https://www.motortrend.com/news/daimler-partners-with-bosch-on-autonomous-car-development/">futuristic cities filled with autonomous robot taxis</a> and luxurious concept vehicles <a href="https://www.cnn.com/style/article/mercedes-benz-f015/index.html">where riders could rest on fully reclining seats while watching high-resolution TVs</a>.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A Google self-driving car goes for a test drive.</span></figcaption>
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<p>That was what they promised us. As it turns out, they were wrong.</p>
<h2>Unfulfilled potential</h2>
<p>The autonomous driving industrial complex has suffered major blows — technological and safety-related — over the last decade. So much so that recently even John Krafcik, former CEO of Waymo and among the most die-hard believers in self-driving cars, <a href="https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/01/rolling-out-driverless-cars-is-extraordinary-grind-says-waymo-boss/">have started to budge</a>.</p>
<p>So, what went wrong?</p>
<p>The simple answer is that the community overestimated the potential of even the most advanced technology and underestimated the capabilities of even the least trained human driver. </p>
<p>Driving, despite what many think, is a complex, dynamic effort at multitasking. Maintaining the speed and position of a vehicle no matter the changes in weather, traffic, road conditions, and the diverse mental, perceptual and motor capabilities of the human driver is not easy.</p>
<p>When you also add the increasing difficulty of having to use <a href="https://www.forbes.com/wheels/advice/advanced-driver-assistance-systems-what-are-they/">unintelligible “intelligent” systems</a>, it’s no surprise that many motorists are just giving up on using assistance systems altogether.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/self-driving-cars-are-still-a-long-way-off-here-are-three-reasons-why-159234">'Self-driving' cars are still a long way off. Here are three reasons why</a>
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<p>Not to forget the multiple attempts by automakers to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53418069">mislead the general public using names like “autopilot” for lesser capable technology</a>.</p>
<p>In all, while some may take the sudden failure of autonomous vehicles as unforeseeable, the reality is that part of the scientific community is surprised it even took this long to manifest.</p>
<h2>Public opinion backlash</h2>
<p>For years, scientists investigating the <a href="https://www.hslab.org/what">human factors of autonomous driving</a> have warned about the gaping flaws in the ongoing autonomous driving effort. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.ntsb.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/NR20200225.aspx">Accident reports</a> on vehicles that, at least in principle, were fully capable of negotiating the “simplest” highway driving scenarios, pointed at these systems’ design limitations as probable causes for the accidents. Because of the false sense of security of driving “autopilot” systems, some motorists may have felt that they could excuse themselves from monitoring the behaviour of the vehicle, thus leading to avoidable collisions.</p>
<p>The backlash manifested in <a href="https://newsroom.aaa.com/2020/03/self-driving-cars-stuck-in-neutral-on-the-road-to-acceptance/">declining public opinion and acceptance of autonomous vehicles</a>. These accidents also didn’t help further the autonomous vehicle cause.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/perfecting-self-driving-cars-can-it-be-done-157483">Perfecting self-driving cars – can it be done?</a>
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<h2>Don’t hold your breath</h2>
<p>What’s next then? <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/11/business/dealbook/teamsters-union-tries-to-slow-self-driving-truck-push.html">Notwithstanding the ever-growing labour challenges</a>, commercial driving where individual trucks become more technologically advanced or <a href="https://www.acea.auto/uploads/publications/Platooning_roadmap.pdf">drive as platoons</a> is where autonomous driving might be making more strides, at least in the short term.</p>
<p>As for self-driving cars, the next time an autonomous vehicle executive tells me to get ready, I will make sure not to hold my breath waiting.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162646/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francesco Biondi teaches, researches, and consults on the human factors of autonomous vehicles. He also receives funding from tri-council agencies, and holds active collaborations with automotive partners.</span></em></p>The promise of self-driving cars hasn’t materialized, and we’re no closer to them becoming a reality.Francesco Biondi, Assistant Professor, Human Kinetics, University of WindsorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1592342021-04-22T04:59:13Z2021-04-22T04:59:13Z‘Self-driving’ cars are still a long way off. Here are three reasons why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395753/original/file-20210419-13-15ynozu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Self-driving software will become a key differentiator for highly automated vehicles but the technology is not quite ready yet.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/newport-beach-ca-usa-10242019-interior-1541787623">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The recent <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-19/two-dead-tesla-driverless-crash-houston-exas/100078068">crash</a> of a Tesla car in the United States, in which two people died, has reignited debate about the capabilities and safety of today’s “self-driving” technologies. </p>
<p>Tesla cars include an “<a href="https://www.tesla.com/support/autopilot">autopilot</a>” feature which monitors surrounding traffic and lane markings, and the company is currently rolling out a more advanced “full self-driving” system which promises automatic navigation, stopping at traffic lights, and more. </p>
<p>Investigators say it <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-20/tesla-search-warrants-fatal-crash-driverless-car-texas/100080804">appears</a> nobody was in the driver’s seat of the vehicle when it crashed. Tesla chief executive Elon Musk has <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1384254194975010826">said</a> no self-driving features were in use at the time. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, the tragic incident has raised questions over self-driving technology: how safe is it, and how much attention does it require from drivers? </p>
<h2>What do we mean by ‘self-driving’?</h2>
<p>Experts talk about <a href="https://www.synopsys.com/automotive/autonomous-driving-levels.html">six levels</a> of autonomous vehicle technology, ranging from level 0 (a traditional vehicle with no automation) to level 5 (a vehicle that can independently do anything a human driver can). </p>
<p>Most automated driving solutions available on the market today require human intervention. This puts them at level 1 (driver assistance, such as keeping a car in a lane or managing its speed) or level 2 (partial automation, such as steering and speed control).</p>
<p>These capabilities are intended for use with a fully <a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/elon-musk-responds-after-investigators-announce-probe-into-fatal-tesla-crash/news-story/3b542905eb150c69453f58eb792fe2fe">attentive driver</a> prepared to take control at any moment. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395976/original/file-20210420-15-4oss15.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395976/original/file-20210420-15-4oss15.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395976/original/file-20210420-15-4oss15.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395976/original/file-20210420-15-4oss15.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395976/original/file-20210420-15-4oss15.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395976/original/file-20210420-15-4oss15.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395976/original/file-20210420-15-4oss15.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The standard levels of vehicle automation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p><a href="https://techcrunch.com/2020/11/11/honda-to-mass-produce-level-3-autonomous-cars-by-march/">Level 3</a> vehicles have more autonomy and can make some decisions on their own, but the driver must still remain alert and take control if the system is unable to drive.</p>
<p>In the past few years, several fatal crashes involving <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/feb/25/tesla-driver-autopilot-crash">level 2</a> and <a href="https://www.swinburne.edu.au/news/2018/05/level-3-autonomous-technology-the-deadliest-stage-in-self-driving-development/">level 3</a> vehicles have occurred. These crashes were largely attributed to human error, and to mistaking these levels of automation for full self-driving capabilities. </p>
<p>Vehicle manufacturers and regulators have been <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-tesla-crash-idINKBN20J2II">criticised</a> for not doing enough to make these systems more resilient to misuse by inattentive drivers.</p>
<h2>The path towards higher levels of automation</h2>
<p>For higher levels of automation, a human driver won’t necessarily be involved in the driving task. The driver would effectively be replaced by the AI self-driving software. </p>
<p>Level 4 is a “self-driving” vehicle that has a bounded scope of where and when it will drive. The best example of a level 4 vehicle is Google’s <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/12/09/without-fanfare-waymo-opens-robotaxi-ride-service-to-the-public/?sh=5d459ab0a34e">Waymo robotaxi</a> project. <a href="https://mindmatters.ai/2020/11/daimler-waymo-and-gm-make-big-gains-in-level-4-self-driving/">Other companies</a> are also making significant progress in developing level 4 vehicles, but these vehicles are not commercially available to the public. </p>
<p>Level 5 represents a truly autonomous vehicle that can go anywhere and at any time, similar to what a human driver can do. The <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/lanceeliot/2019/12/20/explaining-level-4-and-level-5-of-self-driving-cars-in-plain-english/?sh=689f1b784709">transition from level 4 to level 5</a>, however, is orders of magnitude harder than transitions between other levels, and may take years to achieve. </p>
<p>While the technologies required to enable higher levels of automation are advancing rapidly, producing a vehicle that can complete a journey safely and legally without human input remains a big challenge. </p>
<p>Three key barriers must be overcome before they can be safely introduced to the market: technology, regulations and public acceptance. </p>
<h2>Machine learning and self-driving software</h2>
<p>The self-driving software is a key differentiating feature of highly automated vehicles. The software is based on machine learning algorithms and <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2018/5/9/17307156/google-waymo-driverless-cars-deep-learning-neural-net-interview">deep learning neural networks</a> that include millions of virtual neurons that mimic the human brain. </p>
<p>The neural nets do not include any explicit “if X happens, then do Y” programming. Rather, they are trained to recognise and classify objects using examples of millions of videos and images from real-world driving conditions. </p>
<p>The more diverse and representative the data, the better they get at recognising and responding to different situations. Training neural nets is something like holding a child’s hand when crossing the road and teaching them to learn through constant experience, replication and patience.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395907/original/file-20210420-13-rat3na.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395907/original/file-20210420-13-rat3na.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395907/original/file-20210420-13-rat3na.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395907/original/file-20210420-13-rat3na.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395907/original/file-20210420-13-rat3na.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395907/original/file-20210420-13-rat3na.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395907/original/file-20210420-13-rat3na.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How a self-driving car sees the world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Waymo</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While these algorithms can detect and classify objects very accurately, they still can’t mimic the intricate complexities of driving. Autonomous vehicles not only need to detect and recognise humans and other objects, but must also interact with, understand and react to how these things behave. </p>
<p>They also need to know what to do in unfamiliar circumstances. Without a large set of examples for all possible driving scenarios, the task of managing the unexpected will be relatively resistant to deep learning and training. </p>
<h2>Regulations</h2>
<p>Policy-makers and regulators around the world are struggling to keep pace. Today, the industry remains mostly self-regulating, particularly in determining whether the technology is safe enough for open roads. Regulators have largely failed to provide criteria for making such determinations.</p>
<p>While it is necessary to test the performance of self-driving software under real-world conditions, this should only happen <em>after</em> comprehensive safety testing and evaluation. Regulators should come up with a set of standard tests and make companies benchmark their algorithms on standard data sets before their vehicles are allowed on open roads. </p>
<p>In Australia, current laws do not support the safe commercial deployment and operation of self-driving vehicles. The <a href="https://www.ntc.gov.au/transport-reform/automated-vehicle-program">National Transport Commission</a> is spearheading efforts to develop nationally-consistent reforms that support innovation and safety to allow Australian to access the benefits of the technology. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/who-or-what-is-behind-the-wheel-the-regulatory-challenges-of-driverless-cars-55434">Who (or what) is behind the wheel? The regulatory challenges of driverless cars</a>
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<p>A graduated approach to certification is needed, in which a self-driving system could first be evaluated in simulations, then in controlled real-world environments. Once the vehicles pass specific <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-or-what-is-behind-the-wheel-the-regulatory-challenges-of-driverless-cars-55434">benchmark tests</a>, the regulators can allow them on open roads.</p>
<h2>Public acceptance</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2019/11/sae-consumer-autonomous-driving-study-finds-public-acceptance/">public</a> must be involved in decisions regarding self-driving vehicle deployment and adoption. There is a real risk of undermining public trust if self-driving technologies are not regulated to ensure public safety. A lack of trust will affect not only those who want to use the technology, but also those who share the road with them. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395998/original/file-20210420-15-npl1xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395998/original/file-20210420-15-npl1xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395998/original/file-20210420-15-npl1xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395998/original/file-20210420-15-npl1xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395998/original/file-20210420-15-npl1xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395998/original/file-20210420-15-npl1xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395998/original/file-20210420-15-npl1xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395998/original/file-20210420-15-npl1xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Trials of self-driving technologies can help improve public perception and acceptance.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Finally, this incident should serve as a catalyst to bring regulators and industry to establish a strong and robust safety culture to guide innovations in self-driving technologies. </p>
<p>Without this, autonomous vehicles would go nowhere very fast.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159234/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hussein Dia receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the iMOVE Cooperative Research Centre, Level Crossing Removal Authority, City of Boroondara, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Transport for New South Wales, and Scope 3 Pty Ltd.</span></em></p>Autonomous vehicles could one day transform urban transport and make roads safer, but some obstacles need to be overcome first.Hussein Dia, Professor of Future Urban Mobility, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1574832021-04-06T15:09:30Z2021-04-06T15:09:30ZPerfecting self-driving cars – can it be done?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390949/original/file-20210322-15-1nbaibc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C11%2C3867%2C2440&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/self-driving-electronic-computer-cars-on-586488983">posteriori/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Robotic vehicles have been used in dangerous environments for decades, from decommissioning the <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/03/how-robots-are-becoming-critical-players-nuclear-disaster-cleanup">Fukushima nuclear power plant</a> or inspecting <a href="https://orcahub.org/innovation/focus-areas/mapping-surveying-inspection">underwater energy infrastructure</a> in the North Sea. More recently, autonomous vehicles from <a href="https://militaryembedded.com/unmanned/isr/autonomous-sea-boats-demonstrated-with-bae-systems-royal-navy">boats</a> to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-55076342">grocery delivery carts</a> have made the gentle transition from research centres into the real world with very few hiccups.</p>
<p>Yet the promised arrival of self-driving cars has not progressed beyond the testing stage. And in one test drive of an Uber self-driving car in 2018, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.html">a pedestrian was killed</a> by the vehicle. Although these accidents happen every day when humans are behind the wheel, the public holds driverless cars to far higher safety standards, interpreting one-off accidents as proof that these vehicles are too unsafe to unleash on public roads. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A small trolley-like robot with a flag on a city street." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391394/original/file-20210324-17-11grj9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391394/original/file-20210324-17-11grj9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391394/original/file-20210324-17-11grj9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391394/original/file-20210324-17-11grj9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391394/original/file-20210324-17-11grj9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391394/original/file-20210324-17-11grj9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391394/original/file-20210324-17-11grj9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">If only it were as easy as autonomous grocery delivery robots.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/west-lafayette-circa-august-2020-starship-1806786550">Jonathan Weiss/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Programming the perfect self-driving car that will always make the safest decision is a huge and technical task. Unlike other autonomous vehicles, which are generally rolled out in tightly controlled environments, self-driving cars must function in the endlessly unpredictable road network, rapidly processing many <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5940562">complex variables</a> to remain safe. </p>
<p>Inspired by the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/browse/driving/highway-code-road-safety">highway code</a>, we’re working on a set of rules that will help self-driving cars make the safest decisions in every conceivable scenario. Verifying that these rules work is the final roadblock we must overcome to get trustworthy self-driving cars safely onto our roads.</p>
<h2>Asimov’s first law</h2>
<p>Science fiction author Isaac Asimov penned the “three laws of robotics” in 1942. The first and most important law reads: “A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.” When self-driving cars <a href="https://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/most-significant-self-driving-car-crashes/">injure humans</a>, they clearly violate this first law.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/are-self-driving-cars-safe-expert-on-how-we-will-drive-in-the-future-128644">Are self-driving cars safe? Expert on how we will drive in the future</a>
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<p>We at the <a href="https://www.hw.ac.uk/uk/research/the-national-robotarium.htm">National Robotarium</a> are leading research intended to guarantee that <a href="https://www.hw.ac.uk/news/articles/2020/national-robotarium-unveils-3m-research.htm">self-driving vehicles</a> will always make decisions that abide by this law. Such a guarantee would provide the solution to the very serious safety concerns that are preventing self-driving cars from taking off worldwide. </p>
<p>AI software is actually quite good at learning about scenarios it has never faced. Using “<a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3414080.3414081">neural networks</a>” that take their inspiration from the layout of the human brain, such software can spot patterns in data, like the movements of cars and pedestrians, and then recall these patterns in novel scenarios.</p>
<p>But we still need to prove that any safety rules taught to self-driving cars will work in these new scenarios. To do this, we can turn to <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/363235.363259">formal verification</a>: the method that computer scientists use to prove that a rule works <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-3-030-64437-6_4">in all circumstances</a>. </p>
<p>In mathematics, for example, rules can prove that x + y is equal to y + x without testing every possible value of x and y. Formal verification does something similar: it allows us to prove how AI software will react to different scenarios without our having to exhaustively test every scenario that could occur on public roads.</p>
<p>One of the more notable recent successes in the field is the verification of an AI system that uses neural networks to avoid collisions between <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/9081748">autonomous aircraft</a>. Researchers have successfully formally verified that the system will always respond correctly, regardless of the horizontal and vertical manoeuvres of the aircraft involved.</p>
<h2>Highway coding</h2>
<p>Human drivers follow a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-highway-code">highway code</a> to keep all road users safe, which relies on the human brain to learn these rules and applying them sensibly in innumerable real-world scenarios. We can teach self-driving cars the highway code too. That requires us to unpick each rule in the code, teach vehicles’ neural networks to understand how to obey each rule, and then <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-63387-9_5">verify that</a> they can be relied upon to safely obey these rules in all circumstances.</p>
<p>However, the challenge of verifying that these rules will be safely followed is complicated when examining the consequences of the phrase “must never” in the highway code. To make a self-driving car as reactive as a human driver in any given scenario, we must program these policies in such a way that accounts for nuance, weighted risk and the occasional scenario where different rules are in direct conflict, requiring the car to ignore one or more of them. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ixIoDYVfKA0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Robot ethicist Patrick Lin introducing the complexity of automated decision-making in self-driving cars.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Such a task cannot be left solely to programmers – it’ll require input from lawyers, security experts, system engineers and policymakers. Within our newly formed <a href="https://www.macs.hw.ac.uk/aisec/index.php/goals">AISEC project</a>, a team of researchers is designing a tool to facilitate the kind of interdisciplinary collaboration needed to create ethical and legal standards for self-driving cars.</p>
<p>Teaching self-driving cars to be perfect will be a dynamic process: dependent upon how legal, cultural and technological experts define perfection over time. The AISEC tool is being built with this in mind, offering a “mission control panel” to monitor, supplement and adapt the most successful rules governing self-driving cars, which will then be made available to the industry. </p>
<p>We’re hoping to deliver the first experimental prototype of the AISEC tool by 2024. But we still need to create <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3414080.3414081">adaptive verification methods</a> to address remaining safety and security concerns, and these will likely take years to build and embed into self-driving cars.</p>
<p>Accidents involving self-driving cars always create headlines. A self-driving car that recognises a pedestrian and stops before hitting them 99% of the time is a cause for celebration in research labs, but a killing machine in the real world. By creating robust, verifiable safety rules for self-driving cars, we’re attempting to make that 1% of accidents a thing of the past.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157483/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span><a href="mailto:e.komendantskaya@hw.ac.uk">e.komendantskaya@hw.ac.uk</a> receives funding from EPSRC, NCSC, DSTL. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luca Arnaboldi and Matthew Daggitt do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The public holds self-driving cars to incredibly high safety standards – and we’re working to meet them.Ekaterina Komendantskaya, Professor, School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, Heriot-Watt UniversityLuca Arnaboldi, Research Associate, School of Informatics, The University of EdinburghMatthew Daggitt, Research Associate, School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, Heriot-Watt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1522792021-01-14T15:26:16Z2021-01-14T15:26:16ZPursuing Tesla’s electric cars won’t rev up VW’s share price<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378617/original/file-20210113-19-84yh5r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=66%2C11%2C7282%2C4869&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The 2015 diesel scandal resulted in a 40% drop in the company's share price at the time. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/vilnius-lithuania-august-05-2016-electric-465762503">A. Aleksandravicius/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Volkswagen’s chairman, Herbert Deiss, has been struggling to bring the company’s stock price back to its <a href="https://fortune.com/2015/09/23/volkswagen-stock-drop/">previous heights</a> since he took over the reins of the German car maker six years ago. The business has been embroiled in <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-24/vw-chief-s-tensions-with-board-reemerge-in-clash-over-executives">infighting</a>, <a href="https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry-news/dieselgate-european-court-justice-deems-vw-defeat-devices-illegal">scandals</a> and board tussles.</p>
<p>Diess was appointed in 2015 at <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332327135_The_Volkswagen_emissions_scandal_and_its_aftermath#:%7E:text=The%20discovery%20in%202015%20that,share%20price%20in%202%20weeks.">the peak</a> of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vw-emissions-testing-scandal-shows-that-environmental-governance-is-in-trouble-49250">diesel emissions scandal,</a> when VW was caught using software settings to under-report emissions. He was surprisingly mellow in a recent <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-we-transform-volkswagen-herbert-diess/">LinkedIn post</a> in which he acknowledged that there has been significant resistance within the company that he has yet to resolve. He went on to detail his plans to turn around the fortunes of an increasingly disrupted VW. </p>
<p>There is one thing Deiss is clear on: VW, which continues to be the world’s <a href="https://www.wheels.ca/top-ten/these-are-ten-biggest-automakers-in-the-world/">biggest</a> automaker in terms of cars sold, must catch up with Tesla, an electric-vehicle company, in order to survive. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="VW and Tesla share price" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378672/original/file-20210113-23-19r4o9e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378672/original/file-20210113-23-19r4o9e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378672/original/file-20210113-23-19r4o9e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378672/original/file-20210113-23-19r4o9e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378672/original/file-20210113-23-19r4o9e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378672/original/file-20210113-23-19r4o9e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378672/original/file-20210113-23-19r4o9e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">VW’s share price has been tanking, its will take some effort to zoom past Tesla.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/SVEQmywt/">TradingView</a></span>
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<p>Catching up to Tesla might be a little tricky. Reminiscent of how Apple bolted past Nokia in market value in 2008, Tesla recently <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53257933">became</a> the world’s most valuable automaker while selling only a fraction of the cars Volkswagen does. Nonetheless, VW’s “catch-up” project has been code-named “Mission T” and has a goal to match Tesla’s technological capabilities by 2024. </p>
<p>Deiss appears to believe that building better, more electric “products” will help him save VW. History, however, has repeatedly shown that building a better product rarely resolves disruption. The graveyard of technically superior products is extensive and includes the likes of BluRay, Windows Mobile and the <a href="https://www.extremetech.com/gaming/298147-pour-one-out-for-the-dreamcast-segas-awesome-quirky-gone-too-soon-console">Sega Dreamcast</a>.</p>
<h2>An alien ecosystem</h2>
<p>Tesla’s competitive advantage does not come from just its technology and agility, as Deiss indicates in his LinkedIn post. Far from it. The company has created a new automotive ecosystem where the rules are dramatically different from what has been the norm. Tesla is the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/01/21/a-closer-look-at-teslas-supercharger-network/?sh=42814d017193">leader</a> amongst auto makers when it comes to electric charging networks, with faster charging exclusive to its models. This, combined with its increasing influence on the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/b13f316f-ed85-4c5f-b1cf-61b45814b4ee">supply</a> of lithium ion batteries, means that any follow-on electric car entrants must play by Tesla’s rules as gatekeeper. Such a change in power dynamics rarely ends well for incumbents like VW.</p>
<p>Tesla has bent the cost structure of the industry itself. It has skipped the traditional (and expensive) car dealer network and replaced it with a more modern and cheaper <a href="https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/blog/tesla-approach-distributing-and-servicing-cars">direct-to-consumer</a> sales channel. It also barely spends anything on marketing, which continues to be a <a href="https://adage.com/article/deloitte-digital/automotive-marketing-shifting-gears-a-slowing-market/310392">major expense</a> for automotive companies. Tesla’s brand awareness is linked to the controversial, Twitter-powered presence of its CEO, Elon Musk. He was named <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-55578403">the richest man in the world</a> on January 7. His rise to the top, albeit for just <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-net-worth-jeff-bezos-rich-list-worlds-richest-2021-1?r=US&IR=T">four days</a>, was a reminder that the entrepreneur is bigger than the Tesla brand.</p>
<p>Deiss, however, doesn’t appear to recognise any of the above as Tesla’s advantages. As a result, Mission T’s focus is just technology parity – and that is myopic. Unless VW’s next move is about finding a sustainable position in this new automotive ecosystem, its struggles will not go away.</p>
<h2>The spectre of new business models</h2>
<p>The automotive industry has traditionally thrived on cyclical purchases. An average household buys at least one car for a family’s mobility needs. An average household buys a car, uses it for several years and then trades it in. Thanks to emergent mobility models such as car sharing and ride hailing, the <a href="https://www.iaai.com/Articles/ride-hailing-part-1-its-effect-on-vehicle-sales">need to own a car</a>, especially in busy, space constrained cities, has gone down. It is unclear how VW intends to deal with this longer-term decline in demand for new cars. Tesla is embracing this shift head on. In his investor-day presentation, Musk laid out a <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/22/18510828/tesla-elon-musk-autonomy-day-investor-comments-self-driving-cars-predictions">clear vision</a> of a future where Tesla uses self-driving technology to enable a “robo-taxi” function for its customers. The goal is for Tesla customers to be able to send off their self-driving cars to pick up and drop off other people and make rental income in the process. Musk went as far as to predict that an average Tesla owner could make $30,000 per year by sending their car away as a self-driving taxi when they are not using it.</p>
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<img alt="Finger pressing a push button to start a self-driving car. Composite image between a hand photography and a 3D background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378779/original/file-20210114-17-e67fig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378779/original/file-20210114-17-e67fig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378779/original/file-20210114-17-e67fig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378779/original/file-20210114-17-e67fig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378779/original/file-20210114-17-e67fig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378779/original/file-20210114-17-e67fig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378779/original/file-20210114-17-e67fig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Tesla plans to launch a robotaxi network.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/finger-pressing-push-button-start-selfdriving-643585552">Olivier Le Moal/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>While it may seem premature given that we are still <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/self-driving-cars-fully-autonomous-vehicles-future-prediction-timeline-2019-8?r=US&IR=T">several years away</a> from fully autonomous self-driving cars, the fact that Tesla is preparing to adapt for this change in business models is remarkable. And while it is true that VW has rolled out its own nascent autonomous driving unit <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/28/20936114/vw-self-driving-startup-spinoff-argo-announce#:%7E:text=Volkswagen%20is%20stepping%20up%20its,according%20to%20the%20Financial%20Times.">in 2019</a>, it is unclear how that will help in this shift in business models.</p>
<p>Despite my criticism of Deiss’ approach, it is only fair to recognise that he has one of the hardest jobs in the world. Large scale transformations the size and complexity of what VW needs are both significant and nerve wracking for people leading them – and Deiss is no exception. However, the only way that he can complete his mission to transform VW is to go wider and bolder on the strategic choices he makes for the automaker. Just challenging Tesla on the technology front will not be enough.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152279/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hamza Mudassir does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Tesla has a lot more going for it than just its electric cars. VW must think wider and bolder to save the business.Hamza Mudassir, Visiting Fellow in Strategy, Cambridge Judge Business SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1509412020-11-30T21:55:39Z2020-11-30T21:55:39ZWho’s to blame when a self-driving car has an accident?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371603/original/file-20201126-13-87jval.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5100%2C3443&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Self-driving cars are programmed to identify and avoid risk, but in the case of an accident, who is legally responsible?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With self-driving cars <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/driverless-cars-pittis-1.5739153">gaining traction in today’s automobile landscape</a>, the issue of legal liability in the case of an accident has become more relevant.</p>
<p>Research in human-vehicle interaction has shown <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10447318.2018.1561792">time and again</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0018720819836310">that even systems</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-58465-8_7">designed to automate driving</a> — like adaptive cruise control, which maintains the vehicle at a certain speed and distance from the car ahead — are far from being error-proof. </p>
<p>Recent evidence points to drivers’ limited understanding of what these systems can and cannot do (<a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-017-0202-6">also known as mental models</a>) as a contributing factor to system misuse.</p>
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<p>There are many issues troubling the world of self-driving cars including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0018720819872034">the less-than-perfect technology</a> and <a href="https://newsroom.aaa.com/tag/autonomous-vehicles/">lukewarm public acceptance of autonomous systems</a>. There is also the question of legal liabilities. In particular, what are the legal responsibilities of the human driver and the car maker that built the self-driving car?</p>
<h2>Trust and accountability</h2>
<p>In a recent study published in <em>Humanities and Social Science Communications</em>, the authors tackle <a href="https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-020-00644-2">the issue of over-trusting drivers and the resulting system misuse from a legal viewpoint</a>. They look at what the manufacturers of self-driving cars should legally do to ensure that drivers understand how to use the vehicles appropriately.</p>
<p>One solution suggested in the study involves requiring buyers to sign end-user licence agreements (EULAs), similar to the terms and conditions that require agreement when using new computer or software products. To obtain consent, manufacturers might employ the omnipresent touchscreen, which comes installed in most new vehicles. </p>
<p>The issue is that this is far from being ideal, or even safe. And the interface may not provide enough information to the driver, leading to confusion about the nature of the requests for agreement and their implications.</p>
<p>The problem is, most end users don’t read EULAs: a 2017 Deloitte study <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/deloitte-study-91-percent-agree-terms-of-service-without-reading-2017-11">shows that 91 per cent of people agree to them without reading</a>. The percentage is even higher in young people, with 97 per cent agreeing without reviewing the terms.</p>
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<p>Unlike using a smartphone app, operating a car has intrinsic and sizeable safety risks, whether the driver is human or software. Human drivers need to consent to take responsibility for the outcomes of the software and hardware.</p>
<p>“Warning fatigue” and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10447318.2018.1561792">distracted driving</a> are also causes for concern. For example, a driver, annoyed after receiving continuous warnings, could decide to just ignore the message. Or, if the message is presented while the vehicle is in motion, it could represent a distraction.</p>
<p>Given these limitations and concerns, even if this mode of obtaining consent is to move forward, it likely won’t fully shield automakers from their legal liability should the system malfunction or an accident occur.</p>
<p>Driver training for self-driving vehicles can help ensure that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10447318.2018.1561792">drivers fully understand system capabilities and limitations</a>. This needs to occur beyond the vehicle purchase — recent evidence shows that even relying on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2020.100103">the information provided by the dealership is not going to answer many questions</a>. </p>
<p>All of this considered, the road forward for self-driving cars is not going to be a smooth ride after all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150941/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francesco Biondi is an Assistant Professor at the University of Windsor, and consults on transportation and manufacturing Human Factors cases. </span></em></p>As self-driving cars increase in popularity, the question of legal liability remains. The driver, automobile manufacturer and software designers all have a role to play.Francesco Biondi, Assistant Professor, Human Kinetics, University of WindsorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1479082020-10-14T19:10:18Z2020-10-14T19:10:18ZRobot take the wheel: Waymo has launched a self-driving taxi service<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363336/original/file-20201014-21-1k84sci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C7%2C1597%2C1056&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Waymo</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The age of the driverless taxi has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/10/08/waymo-driverless-rides/">arrived</a> – at least in parts of Phoenix, Arizona. Self-driving car company Waymo, owned by Google’s parent company Alphabet, <a href="https://blog.waymo.com/2020/10/waymo-is-opening-its-fully-driverless.html">announced</a> its autonomous vehicles are now available to the general public (or at least paying customers).</p>
<p>The service is only available in a limited area for now, both because regulations in Arizona are relatively permissive and because the cars need a detailed three-dimensional map to tell them all about the road environment.</p>
<p>Until earlier this year, the self-driving vehicles were under testing and were used in 5-10% of Waymo’s rides. The service has been shut because of the pandemic, but is now back and Waymo is aiming to increase availability.</p>
<h2>Are the cars really ‘self-driving’?</h2>
<p><a href="https://waymo.com/waymo-one/">Waymo One</a> currently requires a human driver to be present to supervise the self-driving care and override it when necessary, but the new announcement means fully autonomous, unsupervised vehicles. If successful, passengers will have entirely free time in the back seat.</p>
<p>Safety is still a concern though. Waymo claim trials in excess of <a href="https://fortune.com/2020/01/07/googles-waymo-reaches-20-million-miles-of-autonomous-driving/">20 million miles</a> of autonomous driving as of January 2020. While this sounds reassuring, with current <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/2019/5/17/18564501/self-driving-car-morals-safety-tesla-waymo">US death rates at 1 per 100 million miles</a> this is woefully small to demonstrate safety on par with human drivers.</p>
<p>However, some research <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2150.html">suggests</a> deploying “good enough” self-driving cars will save lives by getting rid of human errors – and that waiting for the technology to become near-perfect before deploying it would be a mistake.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/autonomous-cars-five-reasons-they-still-arent-on-our-roads-143316">Autonomous cars: five reasons they still aren't on our roads</a>
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<h2>Waymo’s plan</h2>
<p>Much of Waymo’s success is down to rigorous simulation and training. The company has its roots in Google’s self-driving car project, which began in 2009. </p>
<p>Unlike some other companies working on autonomous vehicles, such as Tesla and Volvo, Waymo is not trying to make a vehicle it can sell to consumers. At present, Waymo is only focused on offering a taxi service, though <a href="https://www.ibtimes.com/self-driving-car-testing-waymo-avis-budget-group-partner-arizona-fleet-2557555">Avis Budget Group</a> will manage the physical fleet of vehicles.</p>
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<p>This may be a smart move. From a consumer psychology perspective, buying a Tesla or any other branded autonomous vehicle is <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/032415/why-are-tesla-cars-so-expensive.asp">expensive</a>, but getting a driverless taxi will feel just as futuristic at a much lower cost. </p>
<h2>The road ahead for autonomous vehicles</h2>
<p>Even if Waymo’s technology proves safe and effective in practice, commercial success will depend on whether consumers adopt it. We still see customers in banks who <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB863731049116514500">prefer to go to a teller</a> instead of making a transaction via a kiosk or ATM, and computer users who are reluctant to <a href="https://theconversation.com/airports-atms-hospitals-microsoft-windows-xp-leak-would-be-less-of-an-issue-if-so-many-didnt-use-it-147018">upgrade systems and services</a> to newer versions.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/airports-atms-hospitals-microsoft-windows-xp-leak-would-be-less-of-an-issue-if-so-many-didnt-use-it-147018">Airports, ATMs, hospitals: Microsoft Windows XP leak would be less of an issue, if so many didn't use it</a>
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<p>There are still drivers resistant to the usage of (any) electronics in cars, so, for some, robot-driven cars will be a hard sell. What’s more, self-driving cars still struggle to manage everyday unexpected obstacles, such as potholes or broken traffic lights. Weather can also take a toll by affecting sensors.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a30857661/autonomous-car-self-driving-research-expensive/">Billions of dollars</a> have been spent on autonomous car research, but they are far from perfect. High-profile <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/kzxq3y/self-driving-uber-killed-a-pedestrian-as-human-safety-driver-watched">deaths</a>) involving autonomous vehicles have also taken some of the shine off the technology.</p>
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<h2>So, are we ready to embrace the technology and service?</h2>
<p>Waymo provided the service before the pandemic; proved the technology works; and, showed there is public demand for such a service. They will now be aiming to convince stakeholders such as governments and business partners that now is the time for autonomous vehicles. </p>
<p>While seeking to address technical reliability issues – such as the requirement for a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45048264">5G mobile network</a> – and customer acceptance of their product, Waymo will be hoping they won’t experience any catastrophic accidents as some of their competitors have.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/legal-lessons-for-australia-from-ubers-self-driving-car-fatality-93649">Legal lessons for Australia from Uber’s self-driving car fatality</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147908/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The age of autonomous vehicles is edging closer to reality with the launch of a driverless taxi service in the USA.James Jin Kang, Lecturer, Computing and Security, Edith Cowan UniversityMohiuddin Ahmed, Lecturer of Computing & Security, Edith Cowan UniversityPaul Haskell-Dowland, Associate Dean (Computing and Security), Edith Cowan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1433162020-07-30T12:02:22Z2020-07-30T12:02:22ZAutonomous cars: five reasons they still aren’t on our roads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350425/original/file-20200730-17-tofe77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/brussels-belgium-jan-09-2020-metallic-1619989450">Grzegorz Czapski/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Elon Musk thinks his company Tesla will have fully autonomous cars ready by the end of 2020. “There are no fundamental challenges remaining,” he <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53349313">said recently</a>. “There are many small problems. And then there’s the challenge of solving all those small problems and putting the whole system together.”</p>
<p>While the technology to enable a car to complete a journey without human input (what the industry calls “<a href="https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-news/tech/autonomous-car-levels-different-driverless-technology-levels-explained/">level 5 autonomy</a>”) might be advancing rapidly, producing a vehicle that can do so safely and legally is another matter. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/are-self-driving-cars-safe-expert-on-how-we-will-drive-in-the-future-128644">Are self-driving cars safe? Expert on how we will drive in the future</a>
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<p>There are indeed still fundamental challenges to the safe introduction of fully autonomous cars, and we have to overcome them before we see these vehicles on our roads. Here are five of the biggest remaining obstacles.</p>
<h2>1. Sensors</h2>
<p>Autonomous cars use a <a href="https://www.itransition.com/blog/autonomous-vehicle-sensors">broad set of sensors</a> to “see” the environment around them, helping to detect objects such as pedestrians, other vehicles and road signs. Cameras help the car to view objects. Lidar uses lasers to measure the distance between objects and the vehicle. Radar detects objects and tracks their speed and direction. </p>
<p>These sensors all feed data back to the car’s control system or computer to help it make decisions about where to steer or when to brake. A fully autonomous car needs a set of sensors that accurately detect objects, distance, speed and so on under all conditions and environments, without a human needing to intervene. </p>
<p>Lousy weather, heavy traffic, roads signs with graffiti on them can all negatively impact the accuracy of sensing capability. Radar, which Tesla uses, is less susceptible to adverse weather conditions, but challenges remain in ensuring that the chosen sensors used in a fully autonomous car can detect all objects with the required level of certainty for them to be safe. </p>
<p>To enable truly autonomous cars, these sensors have to work in all weather conditions anywhere on the planet, from Alaska to Zanzibar and in congested cities such as Cairo and Hanoi. <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-51645566">Accidents with Tesla’s current (only level 2) “autopilot”</a>, including one in <a href="https://www.torquenews.com/1083/police-tesla-autopilot-hits-not-one-two-parked-first-responder-vehicles">July 2020 hitting parked vehicles</a>, show the company has a big gap to overcome to produce such a global, all-weather capability.</p>
<h2>2. Machine learning</h2>
<p>Most autonomous vehicles will use artificial intelligence and <a href="https://iiot-world.com/artificial-intelligence-ml/machine-learning/machine-learning-algorithms-in-autonomous-driving">machine learning</a> to process the data that comes from its sensors and to help make the decisions about its next actions. These algorithms will help identify the objects detected by the sensors and classify them, according to the system’s training, as a pedestrian, a street light, and so on. The car will then use this information to help decide whether the car needs to take action, such as braking or swerving, to avoid a detected object.</p>
<p>In the future, machines will be able to do this detection and classification more efficiently than a human driver can. But at the moment there is no widely accepted and agreed basis for ensuring that the machine learning algorithms used in the cars are safe. We do not have agreement across the industry, or across standardisation bodies, on how machine learning should be trained, tested or validated.</p>
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<img alt="Interior of car looking out at virtual world." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350426/original/file-20200730-25-y4ho3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350426/original/file-20200730-25-y4ho3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350426/original/file-20200730-25-y4ho3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350426/original/file-20200730-25-y4ho3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350426/original/file-20200730-25-y4ho3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350426/original/file-20200730-25-y4ho3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350426/original/file-20200730-25-y4ho3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Fully autonomous capabilities are yet to be proven.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/self-driving-car-on-road-vision-1207431013">Scharfsinn/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>3. The open road</h2>
<p>Once an autonomous car is on the road it will continue to learn. It will drive on new roads, detect objects it hasn’t come across in its training, and be subject to software updates. </p>
<p>How can we ensure that the system continues to be just as safe as its previous version? We need to be able to show that any new learning is safe and that the system doesn’t forget previously safe behaviours, something the industry has yet to reach agreement on.</p>
<h2>4. Regulation</h2>
<p>Sufficient standards and regulations for a whole autonomous system do not exist - in any industry. <a href="https://www.iso.org/standard/70939.html">Current standards</a> for <a href="https://www.iso.org/standard/43464.html">the safety</a> of existing vehicles assume the presence of a human driver to take over in an emergency. </p>
<p>For self-driving cars, there are emerging regulations for particular functions, such as for <a href="http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/trans/doc/2020/wp29grva/GRVA-06-02r1e.pdf">automated lane keeping systems</a>. There is also <a href="https://ul.org/UL4600">an international standard</a> for autonomous systems that includes autonomous vehicles, which sets relevant requirements but does not solve the problems of sensors, machine learning and operational learning introduced above - although it may in time.</p>
<p>Without recognised regulations and standards, no self-driving car, whether considered to be safe or not, will make it on to the open road.</p>
<h2>5. Social acceptability</h2>
<p>There have been numerous high-profile accidents involving <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-51645566">Tesla’s current automated cars</a>, as well as with <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/6/20951385/uber-self-driving-crash-death-reason-ntsb-dcouments">other automated and autonomous vehicles</a>. <a href="https://theconversation.com/finding-trust-and-understanding-in-autonomous-technologies-70245">Social acceptability</a> is not just an issue for those wishing to buy a self-driving car, but also for others sharing the road with them. </p>
<p>The public needs to be involved in decisions about the introduction and adoption of self-driving vehicles. Without this, we risk the rejection of this technology.</p>
<p>The first three of these challenges must be solved to help us overcome the latter two. There is, of course, a race to be the first company to introduce a fully self-driving car. But without collaboration on how we make the car safe, provide evidence of that safety, and work with regulators and the public to get a “stamp of approval” these cars will remain on the test track for years to come. </p>
<p>Unpalatable as it may be to entrepreneurs such as Musk, the road to getting autonomous vehicles approved is through lengthy collaboration on these hard problems around safety, assurance, regulation and acceptance.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143316/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John McDermid consults to/has share options in FiveAI who are developing technology for autonomous vehicles (but are nor producing vehicles and so do not compete with Tesla). He receives funding from Lloyd's Register Foundation for work on assurance of robotics and autonomous systems; the Foundation is a charity and does not manufacture or sell autonomous vehicles. </span></em></p>Despite what Elon Musk says, there are numerous challenges to overcome in creating completely self-driving cars that work in the real world.John McDermid, Director, Assuring Autonomy International Programme, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1296182020-06-22T12:17:12Z2020-06-22T12:17:12ZSelf-driving taxis could be a setback for those with different needs – unless companies embrace accessible design now<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341897/original/file-20200615-65942-v457k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=31%2C7%2C5282%2C3529&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Wheelchair advocates and taxi drivers protest lack of accessibility and surge pricing in New York City on Tuesday, January 19, 2016.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/wheelchair-advocates-joined-by-taxi-and-livery-drivers-news-photo/526663542">Richard Levine/Corbis via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Autonomous vehicles (AVs), like self-driving taxis, continue to garner media attention as industry and political stakeholders claim that they will <a href="https://www.boston.gov/departments/new-urban-mechanics/autonomous-vehicles-bostons-approach">improve safety and access to transportation for everyone</a>. But for people who have different mobility needs and rely on human drivers for work beyond the task of driving, the prospect of driverless taxis may not sound like progress. Unless accommodations are built in to autonomous vehicle designs, companies risk undermining transportation access for the very communities this technology is promising to include.</p>
<h2>The promise</h2>
<p>A January 2020 <a href="https://www.transportation.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/2020-02/EnsuringAmericanLeadershipAVTech4.pdf">joint report</a> issued by the National Science and Technology Council and U.S. Department of Transportation paints a bright picture of an autonomous-enabled future. They predict autonomous vehicles will provide “improved quality of life, access and mobility for all citizens.” Replacing the driver with an autonomous system will create safer transportation by removing the “possibility of human error.” </p>
<p>In addition, synchronizing vehicle movement with distance and traffic patterns would not only result in more efficient service, but safer roadway navigation. These advances should mean fewer cars, less traffic, more economical fuel use and increased vehicle availability. </p>
<h2>More than driving</h2>
<p>If done right, autonomous vehicles could improve access to transportation for everyone. But by not accounting for the many other kinds of labor a driver performs, current AVs <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/josephcoughlin/2017/11/30/why-driverless-cars-alone-will-not-solve-transportation-in-older-age/#4fb1310b97ae">may present problems for people with different needs</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341901/original/file-20200615-65942-1rcysmi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341901/original/file-20200615-65942-1rcysmi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341901/original/file-20200615-65942-1rcysmi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341901/original/file-20200615-65942-1rcysmi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341901/original/file-20200615-65942-1rcysmi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341901/original/file-20200615-65942-1rcysmi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341901/original/file-20200615-65942-1rcysmi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341901/original/file-20200615-65942-1rcysmi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Drivers perform work beyond driving.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/142358175@N06/30487138402/">Justice Ender/Flickr</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For older people, those with disabilities and even individuals in emergency situations, the driver bridges the gap between personal capability and vehicle accessibility.</p>
<p>Drivers help people to and from vehicles, as well as into and out of them. Drivers move and store luggage and mobility equipment like wheelchairs and walkers, and navigate emergency situations like cardiac arrest, allergic reaction or drug overdose.</p>
<p>Yet right now asking an AV interface for assistance would be like asking Siri to help you up if you’ve fallen down. </p>
<h2>Two unequal systems</h2>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/_/VB9xpUXPr-QC?hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjD7_ae04TqAhUmhXIEHXJEBd8Q8fIDMA16BAgKEAQ">1970s and years thereafter</a>, Congress determined that redesigning transportation for accessibility was too costly. Instead they fitted assistive devices to old transportation networks and expected private sector taxi drivers to help. Some did, many didn’t.</p>
<p>Problems of discrimination led to the landmark <a href="https://www.ada.gov/2010_regs.htm">American with Disabilities Act of 1990</a>. The ADA made discrimination based on ability illegal – but access to transportation was still dependent on the driver. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341908/original/file-20200615-65934-xt227m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341908/original/file-20200615-65934-xt227m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341908/original/file-20200615-65934-xt227m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341908/original/file-20200615-65934-xt227m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341908/original/file-20200615-65934-xt227m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341908/original/file-20200615-65934-xt227m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341908/original/file-20200615-65934-xt227m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341908/original/file-20200615-65934-xt227m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Taxi access is already problematic due to a two-tiered system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/handicapped-man-in-a-wheelchair-hailing-a-taxi-in-royalty-free-image/675780582">mokee81/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Today, cities and companies are still struggling with accessibility. People with different needs remain vulnerable <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-41502984">to the whims and prejudices of the driver</a>. Too often people with different needs are denied <a href="https://ggwash.org/view/68138/without-accommodations-uber-and-lyft-are-leaving-customers-with-disabilities-at-the-curb">assistance or transportation altogether</a>. </p>
<p>It was only in 2016, for instance, that <a href="https://www.boston.gov/departments/disabilities-commission/wav-taxi-cabs-wheelchair-accessible-vehicles">Boston’s taxis</a>, <a href="https://medium.com/@tssurampudi/the-future-of-wheelchair-accessible-transportation-how-uber-and-lyft-and-maybe-waymo-are-8f9f7e9a82d4">Uber and later Lyft</a> began integrating a small number of Wheelchair Accessible Vehicles into their fleets, and other companies have emerged like SilverRide <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/nextavenue/2017/05/15/a-ride-service-geared-to-older-adults/#2f7401624114">offer specialty service</a> for people who are older. </p>
<p>But even with these additions, taxi, Uber and Lyft riders still experience cancellations and longer wait times in cities like <a href="https://ggwash.org/view/68138/without-accommodations-uber-and-lyft-are-leaving-customers-with-disabilities-at-the-curb">Washington, D.C.</a>, <a href="https://www.boston.gov/departments/disabilities-commission/wav-taxi-cabs-wheelchair-accessible-vehicles">Boston</a>, <a href="https://www.sfmta.com/sites/default/files/reports-and-documents/2019/05/tncs_and_disabled_access_report.pdf">Chicago, San Francisco</a> and <a href="https://www.nylpi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Left-Behind-Report.pdf">New York</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342043/original/file-20200616-23231-1r9hmxt.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342043/original/file-20200616-23231-1r9hmxt.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342043/original/file-20200616-23231-1r9hmxt.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342043/original/file-20200616-23231-1r9hmxt.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342043/original/file-20200616-23231-1r9hmxt.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342043/original/file-20200616-23231-1r9hmxt.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342043/original/file-20200616-23231-1r9hmxt.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342043/original/file-20200616-23231-1r9hmxt.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A 2019 study comparing the wait times for Wheelchair Accessible Vehicles (WAVs) to inaccessible vehicles in New York City. The wait time for Uber WAV was more than two times as long and Lyft WAV was more than five times as long.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">New York Lawyers for the Public Interest, Still Left Behind whitepaper</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While specialized vehicles are a valuable step toward accessible transportation, they also mean more cars on the road. A 2017 study found <a href="https://itspubs.ucdavis.edu/wp-content/themes/ucdavis/pubs/download_pdf.php?id=2752">Uber and Lyft are increasing traffic congestion</a> in cities leading to increases in safety risks, transit times and pollution. To add to the traffic problem, the International Transportation Forum predicts that <a href="https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/15cpb_self-drivingcars.pdf">traffic will likely increase even more</a> as autonomous cars occupy the road alongside traditional ones.</p>
<h2>The future</h2>
<p>AV developers struggle with what accessibility should look like. Some leading AV companies focus on accessibility inside the car. <a href="https://letstalkselfdriving.com/about/mobility-accessibility.html">Waymo</a> and <a href="https://observer.com/2019/07/lyft-self-driving-cars-blind-passengers/">Lyft</a> are working to communicate information to passengers with disabilities. Nissan’s <a href="https://www.caradvice.com.au/803023/nissan-vr-avatar/">Virtual Reality avatars</a> may provide company, comfort and assistance to passengers in need.</p>
<p>Other AV companies approach accessibility by redesigning access. Startup <a href="https://maymobility.com/">May Mobility</a>’s low speed shuttle can <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2019/07/10/may-mobility-reveals-prototype-of-a-wheelchair-accessible-autonomous-vehicle/">deploy a wheelchair ramp</a>. Tesla’s <a href="https://www.tesla.com/modelx">gull wing doors</a> open vertically for easier access and their Smart Summons feature allows drivers to call their car to fetch them.</p>
<p>In my opinion, vehicle specialization should not be the path forward. A wheelchair ramp in one car and Braille in another will increase cars on the road, decrease availability and increase consumer cost. For AVs to fulfill the promise of accessibility and be environmentally efficient, all cars need to be similarly accessible – even if the mechanisms of accessibility are not always in use. This way AVs can more closely mirror the variety of tasks human drivers currently perform and do it reliably, without discrimination. Standard features could include push button or voice activated motorized doors with sliding ramps, an entry space instead of front seats and interior handrails.</p>
<p>A good place to start is for stakeholders to agree on what accessibility needs must be met and treat AV developments as pieces of an accessibility solution rather than separate niche markets racing toward minimum accommodations. The nonprofit research and community equity organization, <a href="https://cal.streetsblog.org/2020/05/04/california-readying-rules-for-automated-vehicle-ride-hailing/">The Greenlining Institute, suggests</a>, in addition to capability, accessibility should also include financial, cultural, technological, logistical, race, gender, age, class and geographic considerations. If autonomous vehicles are developed to handle the messiness and complexity taxi drivers currently deal with, society will be one step closer to real accessibility.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129618/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Lunsford does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In order to create an efficient future transportation system, autonomous vehicles need to accommodate people with different mobility needs.John Lunsford, PhD Candidate in Media, Technology and Society, Cornell UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1376842020-05-20T12:48:26Z2020-05-20T12:48:26ZAutonomous cars could revolutionise transport for disabled people – if we change the way we design<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336315/original/file-20200520-152320-1sn0g4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-man-on-wheelchair-opening-red-725071276">Andrey Popov/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The move towards driverless cars isn’t just a chance for people to <a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-cars-how-youll-use-free-time-for-work-and-rest-according-to-research-113090">relax at the wheel</a>. It’s an opportunity to revolutionise personal transport in a way that offers life-changing benefits to people with disabilities.</p>
<p>But for this to happen, we need the car industry to commit to more inclusive design practices that right now are widely absent, and overcome the challenges of designing new ways to interact with autonomous vehicles. The solution could involve manufacturers drawing inspiration from diverse areas of product design to get the balance right between style and real-world user-friendliness.</p>
<p>The term “<a href="https://www.designcouncil.org.uk/bs-7000-62005-design-management-systems-managing-inclusive-design-guide">inclusive design</a>” is used to describe the consideration of the needs and abilities of a diverse range of people in the design process. The car industry has traditionally focused on designing for people with driving licences - who by definition tend to be the more able-bodied section of the population.</p>
<p>Yet people with disabilities make up a significant minority – 22% of people in the UK (13.9 million) <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/692771/family-resources-survey-2016-17.pdf">as of 2016-17</a>. Many of these people may be unable to drive today’s cars, whether due to issues such as sight loss, significant physical impairments or cognitive issues.</p>
<p>Having a disability and being reliant on public transport is fraught with difficulties. And having trouble getting around is key among the barriers <a href="https://mobilitylab.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NationalOrganizationonDisabilityHarrisSurvey.htm">disabled people cite</a> as stopping them taking greater part in society, whether visiting friends and family or joining a club. </p>
<p>Anyone who has had to have a difficult conversation with an older relative, encouraging them to give up driving often because of cognitive or physical decline, will understand what this can mean. So making transport more accessible is key to enabling people to improve their quality of life – whether through better economic opportunities, less social isolation or restoring dignity.</p>
<p>While autonomous cars will increasingly take away the need for people to physically drive the vehicles, there are other barriers to disabled people using cars that need to be considered. Simply getting in and out of vehicles presents difficulties to many people with physical disabilities – not just wheelchair users – and to many older people as muscle strength decreases with age. This makes thoughtful design touches such as grab handles and side steps widely beneficial. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336318/original/file-20200520-152344-1r3e1bx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336318/original/file-20200520-152344-1r3e1bx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336318/original/file-20200520-152344-1r3e1bx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336318/original/file-20200520-152344-1r3e1bx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336318/original/file-20200520-152344-1r3e1bx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336318/original/file-20200520-152344-1r3e1bx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336318/original/file-20200520-152344-1r3e1bx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Autonomous cars will provide an opportunity for a complete design overhaul.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Coventry University</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Operating features that require significant effort, such as folding car seats or tailgates, can be difficult so it’s essential they are designed to work with a reasonable level of force using handles and large contact surfaces. Seat belts also present difficulties as they can be difficult to reach and insert. Restraint systems need a fresh look and a redesign using inclusive design principles to ensure they can be easily used by all in the population. </p>
<p>And for those who are wheelchair users, a simple, easy-to-use restraint system is also required. That’s assuming there’s a well-designed ramp, lowered floor and appropriate space for the wheelchair user to first enter the vehicle.</p>
<p>Self-driving cars will also introduce new challenges, such as the need for interfaces to enable passengers to select a destination or receive information about their journey. To cater for disabled people, they can’t be reliant on only one type of input or feedback. Visual displays may not be suitable for some passengers, just as voice input may be inappropriate for others.</p>
<p>Yet, despite the considerable discussion and resources going into changing personal transport through the development of self-driving cars, there’s little evidence that inclusive design is a major part of the process. This includes from regulators, who are <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/trialling-automated-vehicle-technologies-in-public">updating their codes</a> to accommodate trials of autonomous vehicles, but apparently without considering how vehicle design could benefit people with disabilities.</p>
<h2>Including inclusive design</h2>
<p>It’s not difficult to design accessible cars if the needs and capabilities of a diverse population are considered early in the design process. A few car makers have adopted this philosophy, for example, <a href="https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2016/02/ageing-suit-helps-ford-engineers-think-differently/">Ford uses a “third age suit”</a> that simulates the limited mobility, vision and sense of touch that many older people experience. </p>
<p>This helps the firm’s engineers and designers to get those important details right, such as their <a href="https://wonderfulengineering.com/fords-age-suit-lets-you-experience-life-as-a-104-year-old-man">360-degree door handles</a> that allow the door to be easily opened from the outside using the the whole arm and hand, rather than pull-up handles that require the fingers and wrist to operate them. </p>
<p>Similarly, firms in other sectors have already found ways to develop accessible interfaces. Samsung’s work in producing smart TVs accessible for blind and partially sighted people <a href="https://www.rnib.org.uk/samsung-wins-rnib%E2%80%99s-inclusive-society-award-its-accessible-smart-tv-range">received the Royal National Institute of Blind People’s Inclusive Society Award</a>. The TV can read on-screen text back to the user and provides verbal feedback about the channel, volume and programme information. It even reads aloud the on-screen programme guide. </p>
<p>The car industry has a choice to make: business class travel for a select few, or truly accessible transport for the wider population, offering dignity and an enhanced quality of life to those who face significant challenges everyday. I know which I prefer.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137684/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Herriotts does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Driverless cars create an opportunity for more inclusive design – so why aren’t more companies using it?Paul Herriotts, Professor of Transport Design, Coventry UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1329522020-04-21T12:48:32Z2020-04-21T12:48:32ZLinking self-driving cars to traffic signals might help pedestrians give them the green light<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328812/original/file-20200417-152597-mrj2yp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=336%2C235%2C3758%2C2748&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An autonomous vehicle has no driver to communicate with about whether it's safe to cross.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/father-holding-the-daughter-child-hand-behind-the-royalty-free-image/546425378">Saklakova/iStock/Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.</em></p>
<h2>The big idea</h2>
<p>Automated vehicles don’t have human operators to communicate their driving intentions to pedestrians at intersections. My team’s research on pedestrians’ perceptions of safety shows their trust of traffic lights tends to override their fear of self-driving cars. This suggests one way to help pedestrians trust and safely interact with autonomous vehicles may be to link the cars’ driving behavior to traffic lights.</p>
<p>In a recent study <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=62sb4psAAAAJ&hl=en">by my team</a> at the University of Michigan, we focused on communication via a vehicle’s driving behavior to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/frobt.2019.00117">study how people might react to self-driving cars</a> in different situations. We set up a virtual-reality simulator that let people experience street intersections and make choices about whether to cross the street. In different simulations, self-driving cars acted either more or less like an aggressive driver. In some cases there was a traffic light controlling the intersection.</p>
<p>In the more aggressive mode, the car would stop abruptly at the last possible second to let the pedestrian cross. In the less aggressive mode, it would begin braking earlier, indicating to pedestrians that it would stop for them. Aggressive driving reduced pedestrians’ trust in the autonomous vehicle and made them less likely to cross the street. </p>
<p>However, this was true only when there was no traffic light. When there was a light, pedestrians focused on the traffic light and usually crossed the street regardless whether the car was driving aggressively. This indicates that pedestrians’ trust of traffic lights outweighs any concerns about how self-driving cars behave.</p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>Introducing autonomous vehicles might be one way to make roads more safe. Drivers and pedestrians often <a href="http://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/148533">use nonverbal communication</a> to negotiate safe passage at crosswalks, though, and cars without drivers can’t communicate in the same way. This could in turn make pedestrians and other road users less safe, especially since autonomous vehicles aren’t yet designed to communicate with systems that make streets safer, such as traffic lights. </p>
<h2>Other research being done in the field</h2>
<p>Some researchers have tried to find ways for self-driving cars to communicate with pedestrians. They have tried to use parts that cars already have, <a href="https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/jaguar-land-rover-projection-pod-self-driving-cars/">such as headlights</a>, or <a href="https://medium.com/self-driven/seeing-the-light-our-call-for-a-standard-self-driving-car-language-to-communicate-intent-3f3628cc7b2">add new ones</a>, such as <a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self-driving/driveai-launches-dallas-robot-car-pilot-with-a-focus-on-humans">LED signs on the vehicle</a>.</p>
<p>However, unless every car does it the same way, this strategy won’t work. For example, unless automakers agreed on how headlights should communicate certain messages or the government set rules, it would be impossible to make sure pedestrians understood the message. The same holds for new technology like LED message boards on cars. There would need to be a standard set of messages all pedestrians could understand without learning multiple systems.</p>
<p>Even if the vehicles communicated in the same way, several cars approaching an intersection and making independent decisions about stopping could cause confusion. Imagine three to five autonomous vehicles approaching a crosswalk, each displaying its own message. The pedestrian would need to read each of these messages, on moving cars, before deciding whether to cross.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328813/original/file-20200417-152558-1gwojoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328813/original/file-20200417-152558-1gwojoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328813/original/file-20200417-152558-1gwojoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328813/original/file-20200417-152558-1gwojoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328813/original/file-20200417-152558-1gwojoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328813/original/file-20200417-152558-1gwojoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328813/original/file-20200417-152558-1gwojoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328813/original/file-20200417-152558-1gwojoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What if all vehicles were communicating with the traffic lights ahead, even before they’re visible?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/smart-transportation-and-vehicles-moving-in-royalty-free-illustration/1207768535">elenabs/iStock/Getty Images Plus</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s next</h2>
<p>Our results suggest a better approach would be to have the car communicate directly with the traffic signal, for two reasons.</p>
<p>First, pedestrians already look to and understand current traffic lights. </p>
<p>Second, a car can tell what a traffic light is doing much sooner by <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/what-is-v2x-communication-creating-connectivity-for-the-autonomous-car-era/">checking in over a wireless network</a> than by waiting until its camera can see the light.</p>
<p>This technology is still being developed, and scholars at Michigan’s <a href="https://mcity.umich.edu/">Mcity</a> mobility research center and elsewhere are studying problems like how to send and prioritize messages between cars and signals. It might effectively put self-driving cars under traffic lights’ control, with ways to adapt to current conditions. For example, a traffic light might tell approaching cars that it was about to turn red, giving them more time to stop. On a slippery road, a car might ask the light to stay green a few seconds longer so an abrupt stop isn’t necessary. </p>
<p>To make this real, engineers and policymakers would need to work together on developing technologies and setting rules. Each would have to better understand what the other does. At the same time, they would need to understand that not every solution works in every region or society. For example, the best way for traffic lights and self-driving cars to communicate in Detroit might not work in Mumbai, where roads and driving practices are far different.</p>
<p>[<em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132952/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lionel Peter Robert Jr receives funding from Toyota Research Institute (“TRI”) to assist the authors with their research but this article solely reflects the opinions and conclusions of its authors and not TRI or any other Toyota entity.</span></em></p>Pedestrians are wary of autonomous cars, but they trust traffic lights. Researchers suggest driverless cars could communicate directly with the signals to make their own actions more predictable.Lionel Peter Robert Jr., Associate Professor of Information, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1294272020-03-06T13:02:33Z2020-03-06T13:02:33ZAutonomous vehicles can be fooled to ‘see’ nonexistent obstacles<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312623/original/file-20200129-92977-12wfpkc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=18%2C22%2C1219%2C896&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">LiDAR helps an autonomous vehicle 'visualize' what's around it.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Yulong Can with data from Baidu Apollo</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nothing is more important to an autonomous vehicle than sensing what’s happening around it. Like human drivers, autonomous vehicles need the ability to make instantaneous decisions. </p>
<p>Today, most autonomous vehicles rely on multiple sensors to perceive the world. Most systems use a combination of cameras, radar sensors and LiDAR (light detection and ranging) sensors. On board, computers fuse this data to create a comprehensive view of what’s happening around the car. Without this data, autonomous vehicles would have no hope of safely navigating the world. Cars that use multiple sensor systems both work better and are safer – each system can serve as a check on the others – but no system is immune from attack.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, these systems are not foolproof. Camera-based perception systems can be tricked simply by <a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/sensors/slight-street-sign-modifications-can-fool-machine-learning-algorithms">putting stickers on traffic signs to completely change their meaning</a>. </p>
<p>Our work, from the <a href="http://vhosts.eecs.umich.edu/robustnet//about.html">RobustNet Research Group</a> at the University of Michigan with computer scientist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=lcsu7m8AAAAJ">Qi Alfred Chen</a> from UC Irvine and colleagues from <a href="https://spqr.eecs.umich.edu">the SPQR lab</a>, has shown that the LiDAR-based perception system can be comprised, too. </p>
<p>By strategically spoofing the LiDAR sensor signals, the attack is able to fool the vehicle’s LiDAR-based perception system into “seeing” a nonexistent obstacle. If this happens, a vehicle could cause a crash by blocking traffic or braking abruptly.</p>
<h2>Spoofing LiDAR signals</h2>
<p>LiDAR-based perception systems have two components: the sensor and the machine learning model that processes the sensor’s data. A LiDAR sensor calculates the distance between itself and its surroundings by emitting a light signal and measuring how long it takes for that signal to bounce off an object and return to the sensor. This duration of this back-and-forth is also known as the “time of flight.”</p>
<p>A LiDAR unit sends out tens of thousands of light signals per second. Then its machine learning model uses the returned pulses to paint a picture of the world around the vehicle. It is similar to how a bat uses echolocation to know where obstacles are at night.</p>
<p>The problem is these pulses can be spoofed. To fool the sensor, an attacker can shine his or her own light signal at the sensor. That’s all you need to get the sensor mixed up.</p>
<p>However, it’s more difficult to spoof the LiDAR sensor to “see” a “vehicle” that isn’t there. To succeed, the attacker needs to precisely time the signals shot at the victim LiDAR. This has to happen at the nanosecond level, since the signals travel at the speed of light. Small differences will stand out when the LiDAR is calculating the distance using the measured time-of-flight. </p>
<p>If an attacker successfully fools the LiDAR sensor, it then also has to trick the machine learning model. Work done at the OpenAI research lab <a href="https://openai.com/blog/adversarial-example-research/">shows that</a> machine learning models are vulnerable to specially crafted signals or inputs – what are known as adversarial examples. For example, specially generated stickers on traffic signs can fool camera-based perception.</p>
<p>We found that an attacker could use a similar technique to craft perturbations that work against LiDAR. They would not be a visible sticker, but spoofed signals specially created to fool the machine learning model into thinking there are obstacles present when in fact there are none. The LiDAR sensor will feed the hacker’s fake signals to the machine learning model, which will recognize them as an obstacle.</p>
<p>The adversarial example – the fake object – could be crafted to meet the expectations of the machine learning model. For example, the attacker might create the signal of a truck that is not moving. Then, to conduct the attack, they might set it up at an intersection or place it on a vehicle that is driven in front of an autonomous vehicle.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/a6R6P3D70cE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A video illustration of the two methods used to trick the self-driving car’s AI.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Two possible attacks</h2>
<p>To demonstrate the designed attack, we chose an autonomous driving system used by many car makers: Baidu <a href="http://apollo.auto/">Apollo</a>. This product has over 100 partners and has reached a mass production agreement with multiple manufacturers including <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2018/11/01/baidu-volvo-ford-autonomous-driving/">Volvo and Ford</a>. </p>
<p>By using real world sensor data collected by the Baidu Apollo team, we <a href="https://sites.google.com/umich.edu/advlidar/">demonstrated two different attacks</a>. In the first, an “emergency brake attack,” we showed how an attacker can suddenly halt a moving vehicle by tricking it into thinking an obstacle appeared in its path. In the second, an “AV freezing attack,” we used a spoofed obstacle to fool a vehicle that had been stopped at a red light to remain stopped after the light turns green.</p>
<p>By exploiting the vulnerabilities of autonomous driving perception systems, we hope to trigger an alarm for teams building autonomous technologies. Research into new types of security problems in the autonomous driving systems is just beginning, and we hope to uncover more possible problems before they can be exploited out on the road by bad actors.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/hYuvmwzqmsY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A simulated demonstration of two LiDAR spoofing attacks done by the researchers.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129427/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Driverless vehicles rely heavily on sensors to navigate the world. They’re vulnerable to attack if bad actors trick them into ‘seeing’ things that aren’t there, potentially leading to deadly crashes.Yulong Cao, Ph.D. Candidate in Computer Science and Engineering, University of MichiganZ. Morley Mao, Professor of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1311542020-02-23T19:57:27Z2020-02-23T19:57:27ZBillions are pouring into mobility technology – will the transport revolution live up to the hype?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316398/original/file-20200220-92493-16dhl1h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C152%2C5976%2C3730&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/san-francisco-ca-usa-april-27-1080711815">Toshifumi Hotchi/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past decade almost <a href="https://files.pitchbook.com/website/files/pdf/PitchBook_Q4_2019_Emerging_Tech_Research_Mobility_Tech_Executive_Summary.pdf">US$200 billion</a> has been invested globally in mobility technology that promises to improve our ability to get around. More than US$33 billion was invested last year alone. Another measure of interest in this area is the <a href="https://travelandmobility.tech/lists/unicorns/">number of unicorns</a>, which has doubled in the past two years. </p>
<p>A unicorn is a privately held startup company valued at US$1 billion or more. In early 2018 there were 22 travel and mobility unicorns. By last month the number had grown to 44. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-battle-to-be-the-amazon-or-netflix-of-transport-103351">The battle to be the Amazon (or Netflix) of transport</a>
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<p>The top categories in the mobility area are: ride hailing, with 11 unicorns (25.0%); autonomous vehicles, with ten (22.7%); and micromobility, with three (6.8%). The remaining 20 unicorns are in the travel category (hotels, bookings and so on).</p>
<p>Mobility technology is more than just autonomous vehicles, ride hailing and e-scooters and e-bikes. It also includes: electrification (electric vehicles, charging/batteries); fleet management and connectivity (connectivity, data management, cybersecurity, parking, fleet management); auto commerce (car sharing); transportation logistics (freight, last-mile delivery); and urban air mobility.</p>
<h2>Promised solutions, emerging problems</h2>
<p>Much of the interest in mobility technology is coming from individuals outside the transport arena. Startups are attracting investors by claiming their technology will solve many of our transport problems. </p>
<p>Micromobility companies believe their e-scooters and e-bikes will solve the “<a href="https://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/9780784413210.007">first-mile last-mile</a>” problem by enabling people to move quickly and easily between their homes or workplaces and a bus or rail station. While this might work in theory, it depends on having <a href="https://theconversation.com/fork-in-the-road-as-danish-and-dutch-style-cycle-routes-spread-19744">safe and segregated bicycle networks</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/people-love-the-idea-of-20-minute-neighbourhoods-so-why-isnt-it-top-of-the-agenda-131193">frequent and widely accessible public transport</a> services. </p>
<p>Ride-hailing services might relieve people of the need to own a car. But <a href="https://www.som.com/ideas/publications/som_thinkers_the_future_of_transportation">there is evidence</a> to suggest these services are <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-ride-hail-utopia-that-got-stuck-in-traffic-11581742802">adding to traffic congestion</a>. That’s because, unlike taxis, more of their time on the road involves travelling without any passengers.</p>
<p>Navigation tools (Google Maps, Apple Maps, Waze) have <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Maps">been around longer</a> than most other mobility technologies and are meant make it easier to find the least-congested route for any given trip. However, <a href="https://people.eecs.berkeley.edu/%7Etheophile/docs/publications/Cabannes_19_ACM.pdf">research</a> suggests these tools might not be working as intended. The <a href="https://www.som.com/ideas/publications/som_thinkers_the_future_of_transportation">backlash</a> against them is growing in some cities because traffic is being directed onto neighbourhood streets rather than arterial roads.</p>
<p>Autonomous vehicles have the goal of reducing injuries and deaths from car crashes. Only a few years ago many bold predictions were being made that these self-driving vehicles would be having positive impacts by now, but this hasn’t happened. The enthusiasm for autonomous vehicles has cooled. <a href="https://www.vtpi.org/avip.pdf">Some now believe</a> we won’t see many of the social benefits for decades. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-we-feel-about-our-cars-means-the-road-to-a-driverless-future-may-not-be-smooth-125874">How we feel about our cars means the road to a driverless future may not be smooth</a>
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<p>The final mobility tech area is known as mobility as a service (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobility_as_a_service">MAAS</a>). It’s basically a platform designed to make better use of existing infrastructure and transport modes. MAAS begins with a journey planner that is linked to one-stop payment for a range of mobility services – ride-hailing, e-scooters, e-bikes, taxis, public transport, and so on. </p>
<p>MAAS is the newest entrant in the mobility tech field. It has attracted US$6.8 billion to date, but is expected to grow to <a href="https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/mobility-as-a-service-market-78519888.html">over US$100 billion by 2030</a>. This idea is creating great enthusiasm, not only among private entrepreneurs, but also in the public sector. It’s too early to know whether it will improve transportation.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/for-mobility-as-a-service-maas-to-solve-our-transport-woes-some-things-need-to-change-105119">For Mobility as a Service (MaaS) to solve our transport woes, some things need to change</a>
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<h2>3 trends are driving investment</h2>
<p>So, why do venture capitalists <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnfrazer1/2019/03/11/new-mobility-worth-billions-venture-capital-thinks-so/#198cda2247d8">continue to show so much interest</a> in mobility technology startups despite poor company performance to date? It appears they believe personal mobility will become increasingly important. <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnfrazer1/2019/03/11/new-mobility-worth-billions-venture-capital-thinks-so/#198cda2247d8">Three trends</a> support this belief.</p>
<p>First, urban dwellers increasingly value the ability to move around easily. It’s thought to be a key ingredient for a liveable city. The problem is public transport is often not very good, particularly in the US and in outer suburbs in Australia. </p>
<p>This is due to historically low funding relative to roads. The prospect of more funding and better public transport services in the future is not good. In part that’s because many <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/8/10/9118199/public-transportation-subway-buses">view public transport as welfare</a> and not an essential public service. Thus, if cities want to become more liveable and competitive, they must look beyond government-funded public transport for other mobility alternatives. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-bolster-our-fragile-road-and-rail-system-we-need-to-add-a-micro-mobility-network-124895">To bolster our fragile road and rail system we need to add a 'micro-mobility' network</a>
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<p>The second trend is declining vehicle ownership. Since 1986 US sales of car and light trucks per capita have dropped by <a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/02/04/vehicle-sales-per-capita-our-latest-look-at-the-long-term-trendh">almost 30%</a>. In Australia, new car sales <a href="https://www.budgetdirect.com.au/car-insurance/research/australian-car-sales-statistics.html">remained relatively constant</a> over the past decade, but a <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7982-new-vehicle-purchase-intention-march-2019-201905240039">decline since 2017 is expected to continue</a>. These trends are due in part to the cost of owning a vehicle, but also because of a growing view that owning a car may not be necessary.</p>
<p>This brings us to the third trend, which involves demographics and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/delay-in-getting-driving-licences-opens-door-to-more-sustainable-travel-57430">post-millennial desire for access to mobility</a> services <a href="https://theconversation.com/car-ownership-is-likely-to-become-a-thing-of-the-past-and-so-could-public-transport-110550">rather than vehicle ownership</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-subscribe-to-movies-and-music-why-not-transport-119538">We subscribe to movies and music, why not transport?</a>
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<p>These trends, combined with expectations of an upward trend in prices of these services, suggests there may be good times ahead for ride-hailing and micromobility companies. It also means venture capital funding for these startups will not be diminishing in the near future.</p>
<h2>The future of transport isn’t simple</h2>
<p>Transport systems are multifaceted. No one single app or technology will solve the challenges. And, as we are discovering, some of the purported solutions to problems might actually be making the situation worse. </p>
<p>If the goal is to get people out of their cars (for <a href="https://theconversation.com/designing-suburbs-to-cut-car-use-closes-gaps-in-health-and-wealth-83961">better health and quality of life and a better environment</a>), this will require more than a technology. Better infrastructure and public policies (including better integration of land uses and transport to reduce the need for transport) will be required – <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-charts-on-why-congestion-charging-is-fairer-than-you-might-think-124894">congestion pricing</a> being one of those.</p>
<p>That is not to say technological innovations are not welcome as part of the solution, but they are just that … “part” of the solution.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131154/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Sipe receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>Over US$33 billion was invested in mobility tech last year in response to claims it will transform our lives. Based on what we have seen so far, which of these promised solutions will be delivered?Neil G Sipe, Adjunct Researcher in Transport and Planning, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.