tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/charts-42969/articlesCharts – The Conversation2021-12-23T10:09:37Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1741252021-12-23T10:09:37Z2021-12-23T10:09:37ZChristmas music: is there a magic formula behind festive chart-toppers?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438648/original/file-20211221-23-dtc6wr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">shutterstock</span> </figcaption></figure><p>There is probably no chart position more fought over than the Christmas number one. This year, it looks like <a href="https://inews.co.uk/culture/music/christmas-number-1-who-odds-xmas-2021-when-announced-1360687">LadBaby</a> will steal their fourth chart win in a row — a new record if successful — with a song featuring Elton John and Ed Sheeran. But what does it really take to propel a song to the coveted spot during another COVID Christmas? And what makes for good Christmas music — the kind that we want to consume throughout the festive season?</p>
<p>We know Christmas music when we hear it, but it’s not always obvious what features (if any) it needs to have to pass the yuletide test. Plenty of explicitly Christmas-themed songs will have certain musical characteristics, even though they’re <a href="https://edinburgh.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.3366/edinburgh/9780748628087.001.0001/upso-9780748628087-chapter-8">always optional</a>. These include a major key, an accessible pitch range and a moderate tempo, making them both easier to sing and easier on the ear. Certain sounds, too, like sleigh bells, the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10B3e3k6CVs">celeste</a>, the glockenspiel, and a choir also signal the holiday. For over a month, this music <a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Key+Terms+in+Popular+Music+and+Culture-p-9780631212645">is ubiquitous</a>: people do not necessarily pay for or try to hear it, but it’s there anyway, like acoustic wallpaper.</p>
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<h2>The Christmas blues</h2>
<p>The fact that it’s hard to escape Christmas music might account for the eye-rolling that greets it every year. It’s understandable that we might recoil from the sound of yet more Slade and sleigh bells in the context of overflowing car parks and endless queues. </p>
<p>Sometimes the music’s idealised qualities can even instil melancholy. Hearing a romanticised version of family and togetherness <a href="https://edinburgh.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.3366/edinburgh/9780748628087.001.0001/upso-9780748628087-chapter-7">can provoke</a> a keener sense of their absence, and lock out <a href="https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/christmas-2020-how-to-protect-mental-health#3.-Addressing-loneliness">listeners who</a> cannot join in the reindeer games. </p>
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<p>The artificial or fantastical side to the music can be even more off-putting given the commercialised climate in which these sentiments are shared. The very idea of chasing the top spot on the chart appears in some ways disconnected from the “true meaning” of Christmas. It suggests competitive zeal and commercial reward rather than communal values and selflessness. This tension might be one reason why several performers have hitched their chart bid to charitable causes.</p>
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<h2>A festive chart rebellion</h2>
<p>Yet for all the ways it is easy to tire of Christmas songs’ excesses, to many people it <em>matters</em> what music we should value at this time of year. People notice the music’s political and ideological trajectory and can mount a rebellion when they feel that the falseness has gone too far. </p>
<p>Look no further than the successful campaign in 2009 to install Rage Against the Machine’s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWXazVhlyxQ">Killing In The Name</a> at the top of the UK chart and prevent yet another X Factor single from being number one. It was everything Christmas songs are not, or at least not supposed to be (although there is certainly some form of protest, albeit of a less revolutionary kind, in <a href="https://youtu.be/flA5ndOyZbI">John Lennon’s Happy Xmas</a> and Band Aid’s Do They Know It’s Christmas). </p>
<p>It indicated that some people care whether the number one position goes to <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8423340.stm">another schmaltzy ballad</a>. I suspect listeners did not need an excuse to rebel against X Factor’s then-monopoly, but the fact that the campaign happened at Christmas suggests that the rebels found a cause.</p>
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<h2>The power of pop</h2>
<p>This upset, however, is a departure from the norm. One has only to look at the list of <a href="http://irishcharts.ie/christmas/christmas.htm">Christmas number ones</a> to see on the one hand their variety, but on the other, how they gravitate towards a particular type of popular music. In trying to define pop, the rock writer <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/cambridge-companion-to-pop-and-rock/pop-music/35A2D173E6ED1941E67FE80DCA9628CE">Simon Frith considered</a> it to be what is left when one strips away rock, country and the other venerable popular genres. </p>
<p>The leftover category of “pop”, loosely defined, is designed to appeal to everyone: often family-orientated, musically conservative, professionally produced, unobtrusive, and a conduit for cliché and commonplace emotional states like “love, loss, jealousy”. How Frith characterises this residual class of music resonates strongly with typical Christmas music. </p>
<p>As he also points out, such music, despite its purported banality, can be put to affecting use. Its participatory quality and way of gathering memories and associations lend themselves to ritual and strong personal resonances.</p>
<p>These factors, among others, might help explain why we gravitate towards such music at this time of year. Looking at the influence of Victorian Britain on modern Christmas celebrations, the musicologist <a href="https://edinburgh.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.3366/edinburgh/9780748628087.001.0001/upso-9780748628087-chapter-7">Sheila Whiteley highlights</a> the importance of family (both literal and the wider idea), as well as a “utopia of shared values”. Perhaps this sense of sharedness pushes the significance of Christmas week’s number one beyond that of whatever is at the top of the charts at any other time of the year. </p>
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<p>The number one place is the result of a popularity contest among music fans. While the metrics <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.190944">have changed</a> across the decades, the principle of success has not. Chart positions represent a ranking arrived at nationally, suggesting a consensus, even if you were not among those who supported the winner. </p>
<p>Perhaps something is appealing in the perception that people — without necessarily meaning to — have sent something to the top of a public list, indicating that many others enjoy it. It hints at the social and communal. </p>
<p>Perhaps the specific holiday also multiplies these factors and makes them that bit more important. It appears to represent consensus at a time when animosities and hostilities are to be set aside (in theory at least) and when a social rapprochement descends like light snow for a couple of days. In particular, our need for a sense of togetherness cannot be underestimated amid COVID restrictions and reduced social interaction. The feeling of common consent, tacit agreement and shared sensibilities appeals more keenly when people perceive its absence elsewhere.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/174125/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Hodgers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Whether you love it or hate it, Christmas music is unavoidable during the holiday season. But what makes a Christmas number one, and why is the music of yule so meaningful?Jonathan Hodgers, Adjunct Research Fellow of Music, Trinity College DublinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1705562021-11-01T18:38:23Z2021-11-01T18:38:23ZThe science everyone needs to know about climate change, in 6 charts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428635/original/file-20211026-23-1ky80w7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Scientific instruments in space today can monitor hurricane strength, sea level rise, ice sheet loss and much more.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/gsfc/48698288003">Christina Koch/NASA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/las-nociones-cientificas-sobre-el-cambio-climatico-que-todos-deberiamos-conocer-en-seis-graficos-171149">Leer en español</a></em></p>
<p>With the United Nations’ climate conference in Scotland turning a spotlight on climate change policies and the impact of global warming, it’s useful to understand what the science shows.</p>
<p>I’m an <a href="https://cires.colorado.edu/research/research-groups/elizabeth-weatherhead-group">atmospheric scientist</a> who has worked on global climate science and assessments for most of my career. Here are six things you should know, in charts.</p>
<h2>What’s driving climate change</h2>
<p>The primary focus of the negotiations is on carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that is released when fossil fuels – coal, oil and natural gas – are burned, as well as by forest fires, land use changes and natural sources.</p>
<p>The Industrial Revolution of the late 1800s started an enormous increase in the burning of fossil fuels. It powered homes, industries and opened up the planet to travel. That same century, scientists <a href="https://theconversation.com/scientists-understood-physics-of-climate-change-in-the-1800s-thanks-to-a-woman-named-eunice-foote-164687">identified carbon dioxide’s potential</a> to <a href="https://www.rsc.org/images/Arrhenius1896_tcm18-173546.pdf">increase global temperatures</a>, which at the time was considered a possible benefit to the planet. Systematic measurements started in the mid-1900s and have shown a steady increase in carbon dioxide, with <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">the majority of it directly traceable</a> to the combustion of fossil fuels.</p>
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<p>Once in the atmosphere, carbon dioxide tends to stay there for a very long time. A portion of the carbon dioxide released through human activities is taken up by plants, and some is absorbed directly into the ocean, but <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/greenhouse-gas-bulletin-another-year-another-record">roughly half</a> of all carbon dioxide emitted by human activities today stays in the atmosphere — and it <a href="https://tos.org/oceanography/article/an-accounting-of-the-observed-increase-in-oceanic-and-atmospheric-co2-and-a">likely will remain there for hundreds of years</a>, influencing the climate globally.</p>
<p>During the <a href="https://www.iea.org/articles/global-energy-review-co2-emissions-in-2020">first year of the pandemic in 2020</a>, when fewer people were driving and some industries briefly stopped, carbon dioxide emissions from fuels fell by roughly 6%. But it <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/12/3269/2020/">didn’t stop the rise in the concentration of carbon dioxide</a> because the amount released into the atmosphere by human activities far exceeded what nature could absorb.</p>
<p>If civilization stopped its carbon dioxide-emitting activities today, it would <a href="https://tos.org/oceanography/article/an-accounting-of-the-observed-increase-in-oceanic-and-atmospheric-co2-and-a">still take many hundreds of years</a> for the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to fall enough naturally to bring the planet’s carbon cycle back into balance because of carbon dioxide’s long life in the atmosphere.</p>
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<h2>How we know greenhouse gases can change the climate</h2>
<p>Multiple lines of scientific evidence point to the increase in greenhouse emissions over the past century and a half as a driver of long-term climate change around the world. For example:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Laboratory measurements <a href="https://www.rsc.org/images/Arrhenius1896_tcm18-173546.pdf">since the 1800s</a> have repeatedly verified and quantified the absorptive properties of carbon dioxide that allow it to trap heat in the atmosphere.</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/545/2021/esd-12-545-2021-discussion.html">Simple models</a> based on the warming impact of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017MS001038">match historical changes in temperature</a>.</p></li>
<li><p>Complex climate models, recently acknowledged in <a href="https://theconversation.com/winners-of-2021-nobel-prize-in-physics-built-mathematics-of-climate-modeling-making-predictions-of-global-warming-and-modern-weather-forecasting-possible-169329">the Nobel Prize for Physics</a>, not only indicate a warming of the Earth due to increases in carbon dioxide but also <a href="https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/9/3461/2016/">offer details of the areas of greatest warming</a>.</p></li>
</ul>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429261/original/file-20211029-26-whwkeu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429261/original/file-20211029-26-whwkeu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429261/original/file-20211029-26-whwkeu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429261/original/file-20211029-26-whwkeu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429261/original/file-20211029-26-whwkeu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429261/original/file-20211029-26-whwkeu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429261/original/file-20211029-26-whwkeu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429261/original/file-20211029-26-whwkeu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">When carbon dioxide levels have been high in the past, evidence shows temperatures have also been high.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-46939-3_1">Based on Salawitch et al., 2017, updated with data to the end of 2020</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<ul>
<li><p>Long-term records from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0172-5">ice cores</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/30/science/tree-rings-climate.html">tree rings</a> and <a href="https://www.aims.gov.au/docs/research/climate-change/climate-history/climate-history.html">corals</a> show that when carbon dioxide levels have been high, temperatures have also been high.</p></li>
<li><p>Our neighboring planets also offer evidence. Venus’ atmosphere is thick with carbon dioxide, and it is the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/95JE03862">hottest planet</a> in our solar system as a result, even though Mercury is closer to the sun. </p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Temperatures are rising on every continent</h2>
<p>The rising temperatures are evident in records from every continent and over the oceans.</p>
<p>The temperatures aren’t rising at the same rate everywhere, however. A variety of factors affect local temperatures, including land use that influences how much solar energy is absorbed or reflected, local heating sources like <a href="https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-change-impacts/urban-heat-islands">urban heat islands</a>, and pollution.</p>
<p>The Arctic, for example, is warming about <a href="https://www.nilu.com/2021/05/amap-increase-in-arctic-temperature-is-three-times-higher-than-the-global-average/">three times faster than the global average</a> in part because as the planet warms, snow and ice melt makes the surface more likely to absorb, rather than reflect, the sun’s radiation. Snow cover and sea ice recede even more rapidly as a result. </p>
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<h2>What climate change is doing to the planet</h2>
<p>Earth’s climate system is interconnected and complex, and even small temperature changes can have large impacts – for instance, with snow cover and sea levels.</p>
<p>Changes are already happening. Studies show that rising temperatures are <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">already affecting</a> precipitation, glaciers, weather patterns, tropical cyclone activity and severe storms. A number of studies show that the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-heat-waves">increases in frequency</a>, severity and duration of heat waves, for example, <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1098704">affect ecosystems, human lives</a>, commerce and agriculture.</p>
<p>Historical records of ocean water level have shown mostly consistent increases over the past 150 years as glacier ice melts and rising temperatures expand ocean water, with some local deviations due to sinking or rising land.</p>
<p><iframe id="AYpRq" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/AYpRq/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>While extreme events are often due to complex sets of causes, some are exacerbated by climate change. Just as coastal flooding can be made worse by rising ocean levels, heat waves are more damaging with higher baseline temperatures.</p>
<p>Climate scientists work hard to estimate future changes as a result of increased carbon dioxide and other expected changes, such as world population. It’s clear that temperatures will increase and precipitation will change. The exact magnitude of change depends on many interacting factors. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Models of future temperature and precipitation in map form" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429867/original/file-20211103-21-1omk71v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429867/original/file-20211103-21-1omk71v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429867/original/file-20211103-21-1omk71v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429867/original/file-20211103-21-1omk71v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429867/original/file-20211103-21-1omk71v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429867/original/file-20211103-21-1omk71v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429867/original/file-20211103-21-1omk71v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Based on SSP3-7.0, a high-emissions scenario.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/253/2021/">Claudia Tebaldi, et al., 2021</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A few reasons for hope</h2>
<p>On a hopeful note, scientific research is improving our understanding of climate and the complex Earth system, identifying the most vulnerable areas and guiding efforts to reduce the drivers of climate change. Work on renewable energy and alternative energy sources, as well as ways to capture carbon from industries or from the air, are producing more options for a better prepared society. </p>
<p>At the same time, people are learning about how they can reduce their own impact, with the growing understanding that a globally coordinated effort is required to have a significant impact. <a href="https://www.bts.gov/data-spotlight/electric-vehicle-use-grows">Electric vehicles, as well as solar and wind power, are growing</a> at previously unthinkable rates. More people are showing a <a href="https://theconversation.com/pews-new-global-survey-of-climate-change-attitudes-finds-promising-trends-but-deep-divides-167847">willingness to adopt new strategies</a> to use energy more efficiently, consume more sustainably and choose renewable energy. </p>
<p>Scientists increasingly recognize that shifting away from fossil fuels has <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0269749107002849">additional benefits</a>, including <a href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=YmNnDwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP4&dq=World+Health+Organization,+2018,+Health,+environment+and+climate+change:+report+by+the+Director-General&ots=zQRnV6VGzD&sig=hsqdBTGjE45iZB-ECYP4HNlIQWc">improved air quality</a> for human health and ecosystems.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="COP26: the world’s biggest climate talks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong>This story is part of The Conversation’s coverage of COP26, the Glasgow climate conference, by experts from around the world.</strong>
<br><em>Amid a rising tide of climate news and stories, The Conversation is here to clear the air and make sure you get information you can trust. <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/cop26">Read more of our U.S.</a> and <a href="https://page.theconversation.com/cop26-glasgow-2021-climate-change-summit/">global coverage</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170556/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Betsy Weatherhead does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Take a closer look at what’s driving climate change and how scientists know CO2 is involved, in a series of charts examining the evidence in different ways.Betsy Weatherhead, Senior Scientist, University of Colorado BoulderLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1570402021-03-18T18:28:46Z2021-03-18T18:28:46ZClosed borders, travel bans and halted immigration: 5 ways COVID-19 changed how – and where – people move around the world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390211/original/file-20210317-13-1bei0eo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=444%2C257%2C3164%2C1404&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Most countries closed their borders, at least partially, at some point last year. But the world is starting to reopen</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://covidborderaccountability.org">COVID Border Accountability Project</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Trips canceled: <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/564717/airline-industry-passenger-traffic-globally/?fbclid=IwAR2OPkzgjfcJPbixNSCjnhRaQ5_s2fSsdrNhcEeFlD_Lfq8qJSp0WTj88aA">2.93 billion</a>. <a href="https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/COVIDBorderAccountabilityProjectCOBAP">International border closures</a>: 1,299. Lives interrupted: Countless. </p>
<p>After the World Health Organization <a href="https://www.who.int/director-general/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020">declared COVID-19 a pandemic</a>, most countries in the world closed their borders – though public health experts initially <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/articles-detail/updated-who-recommendations-for-international-traffic-in-relation-to-covid-19-outbreak">questioned this strategy for controlling the spread of disease</a>. </p>
<p>I study <a href="https://politicalscience.nd.edu/people/students/mary-a-shiraef/">migration</a>, so I began tracking the enormous changes in how and where people could move around the world. The <a href="https://covidborderaccountability.org/">COVID Border Accountability Project</a>, founded in May 2020, maps travel and immigration restrictions introduced by countries in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. </p>
<p>Here is how our world shuttered – and how it’s starting to reopen.</p>
<h2>1. March 11: It begins</h2>
<p>Travel restrictions peaked right after the <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/11/who-declares-the-coronavirus-outbreak-a-pandemic/">World Health Organization declared a pandemic</a> on March 11. That week, our data shows a total of 348 countries closing their borders, completely or partially. </p>
<p>Complete closures restrict access to all noncitizens at international borders. Partial closures – a category encompassing border closures and travel bans – restrict access at some borders, or bar people from some, but not all, countries.</p>
<p><iframe id="WjrvS" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/WjrvS/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>2. Fully closed borders</h2>
<p>Most countries stopped all foreign travelers from entering at some point last year.</p>
<p>From Finland to Sri Lanka to Tonga, 189 countries – home to roughly 65% of the world’s <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth">7.7 billion people</a> – put a complete border closure in place in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to <a href="https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/COVIDBorderAccountabilityProjectCOBAP">our database</a>. The first to isolate itself from the world was North Korea, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20200313010930/pandemic.internationalsos.com/2019-ncov/ncov-travel-restrictions-flight-operations-and-screening">on Jan. 22, 2020</a>. The last was Bahrain, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20200624022559/https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm">on June 4, 2020</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="ObAoE" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ObAoE/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Most countries eventually eased border restrictions, and many opened their borders only to close them again as COVID-19 cases spread globally. By the end of 2020, roughly half of all countries remained completely closed to noncitizens and non-visa holders except for <a href="https://github.com/COBAPteam/COBAP/blob/main/README.md">essential travel</a> related to health emergencies, humanitarian or diplomatic missions, commerce or family reunification. </p>
<h2>3. Targeted bans and partial closures</h2>
<p>Last year 193 countries closed down partially, restricting access to people from specific countries or closing some – but not all – of their land and sea borders. </p>
<p>Among these, 98 countries introduced targeted bans, which restricted entry to specific groups of people based on their recent travel or nationality. The first travel bans targeted China, followed soon by other countries that experienced the earliest known outbreaks of the novel coronavirus.</p>
<p>For instance, the United States was quick to pass <a href="https://covidborderaccountability.org/usareport.html">a string of targeted travel bans</a>, barring travelers from <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20200609193251/https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/">China first</a>, then <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20200610075601/https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-coronavirus/">Iran</a>, and then <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20200609190905/https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/">26 European countries</a>. </p>
<p><iframe id="O7lfw" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/O7lfw/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Most countries added land border closures to air travel bans, including the United States. In March the Trump administration closed its borders with <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20210313053828/https://www.dhs.gov/news/2020/10/19/fact-sheet-dhs-measures-border-limit-further-spread-coronavirus">Canada and Mexico</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="SAZuc" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/SAZuc/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>4. Restrictions on US residents</h2>
<p>Americans faced serious restrictions on their movement last year, too. People in the U.S., with its high COVID-19 spread, were barred from 190 countries either specifically – via a travel ban – or generally, due to closed borders. </p>
<p>The U.S. passport, usually one of the world’s most powerful for travel access to other countries, ranked <a href="https://www.passportindex.org/passport-power-rank-2020-covid19.php">18th place in 2020</a>. Regions newly off-limits to Americans include most of Europe and nearly all South America.</p>
<p><iframe id="thcvA" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/thcvA/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>5. Visa seekers and immigrants</h2>
<p>Of the 98 countries that implemented targeted bans, 42 specifically restricted all visa seekers from entering the country. The week following the U.S. <a href="https://www.uscis.gov/news/alerts/uscis-offices-preparing-to-reopen-on-june-4#:%7E:text=On%20March%2018%2C%20U.S.%20Citizenship,on%20or%20after%20June%204.">closure of immigration offices</a> worldwide, 20 countries, including the <a href="https://dfa.gov.ph/dfa-news/statements-and-advisoriesupdate/26385-public-advisory-on-the-temporary-suspension-of-visa-issuance-and-visa-free-privilege">Philippines</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20201204201141/https://www.gouv.bj/actualite/556/coronavirus-les-11-mesures-prises-par-le-conseil-extraordinaire-des-ministres-au-benin/">Benin</a> and <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20200618222951/http://www.nepalimmigration.gov.np/post/notice-regarding-temporary-shutdown-of-visa-services">Nepal</a>, stopped issuing all visas. More than 100 visa bans barred visa seekers from specific countries or groups.</p>
<p><iframe id="O9ohk" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/O9ohk/7/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>In September, the Trump administration halted the U.S. asylum program, barring refugees from seeking asylum. The only other country that explicitly targeted immigrants and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-migration-hungary-ruling/hungary-tightens-asylum-rules-as-it-ends-migrant-detention-zones-idUSKBN22X12X">asylum seekers</a> with a COVID-19 travel ban was <a href="http://abouthungary.hu/news-in-brief/hungary-shuts-border-due-to-link-between-the-coronavirus-and-migration/">Hungary</a>. </p>
<h2>The world today</h2>
<p><a href="https://immigrationlab.org/2020/06/26/will-covid-19-harden-worlds-borders/">I initially wondered</a> whether international travel restrictions would stay in place after the pandemic ended, leading to more permanent restrictions on freedom of movement. </p>
<p>[<em>Get facts about coronavirus and the latest research.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=coronavirus-facts">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter.</a>]</p>
<p>But, by and large, the world is reopening. By the end of last year, 137 of the world’s 189 complete closures had been lifted, and 66 of the 98 targeted bans had ended. </p>
<p>In addition to the staggering numbers of closures and the occasional international spats, I’ve been struck by the level of cooperation between countries, especially within the European Union. <a href="https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/U6DJAC">Virtually every EU country</a> complied with the bloc’s travel recommendations – a testament to its ability to manage crisis as a unified region. </p>
<p>Travel restrictions will continue to emerge, end and evolve, dependent on context. As wealthier countries <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00316-4">vaccinate their populations</a> at rapid speed, less equipped countries continue to suffer <a href="https://brazilian.report/coronavirus-brazil-live-blog/">severe outbreaks</a>. International travel may soon require a COVID-19 “<a href="https://theconversation.com/vaccine-passports-may-be-on-the-way-but-are-they-a-reason-for-hope-or-a-cause-for-concern-156534">vaccination card</a>.” New targeted travel bans could emerge.</p>
<p>“Normal” is a long way away. </p>
<p><em>Nikolas Lazar, Thuy Nguyen and the <a href="https://covidborderaccountability.org/team.html">COBAP Team</a> assisted with this story.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157040/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mary A Shiraef received funding from the Nanovic Institute at the University of Notre Dame when launching the COVID Border Accountability Project in April 2020. </span></em></p>Last year, 189 countries – home to roughly 65% of the global population – cut themselves off from the world at some point. Borders are now reopening and travel resuming, but normal is a ways off.Mary A. Shiraef, Ph.D. Student in Political Science, University of Notre DameLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1413482020-07-24T12:22:49Z2020-07-24T12:22:49Z3 questions to ask yourself next time you see a graph, chart or map<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349233/original/file-20200723-23-1c9tv31.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=167%2C5%2C3464%2C2454&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">White House Coronavirus Task Force members reference a misleading chart in a press briefing.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Virus-Outbreak-Trump/f2c5f8d116a24062b563a32cea88235e/1/0">AP Photo/Alex Brandon</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since the days of painting on cave walls, people have been representing information through figures and images. Nowadays, data visualization experts know that <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/evamurray/2019/01/28/how-data-visualization-supports-communication">presenting information visually</a> <a href="https://ed.ted.com/lessons/david-mccandless-the-beauty-of-data-visualization">helps people better understand</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.12.006">complicated data</a>. The problem is that data visualizations can also leave you with the wrong idea – whether the images are sloppily made or intentionally misleading. </p>
<p>Take for example the bar graph presented at an <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?470990-1/president-trump-coronavirus-task-force-briefing">April 6 press briefing</a> by members of the White House Coronavirus Task Force. It’s titled “COVID-19 testing in the U.S.” and illustrates almost 2 million coronavirus tests completed up to that point. President Trump used the graph to support his assertion that testing was “<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-briefing-21/">going up at a rapid rate</a>.” Based on this graphic many viewers likely took away the same conclusion – but it is incorrect.</p>
<p>The graph shows the total cumulative number of tests performed over months, not the number of new tests each day.</p>
<p><iframe id="pG025" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/pG025/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>When you graph the number of new tests by date, you can see the number of COVID-19 tests performed between March and April did increase through time, but not rapidly. This instance is one of many when important information was not properly understood or well communicated.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=T7vRKkQAAAAJ&hl=en">researcher of hazard and risk communication</a>, I think a lot about how people interpret the charts, graphs <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101487">and maps</a> they encounter daily.</p>
<p>Whether they show COVID-19 cases, global warming trends, high-risk tsunami zones, or utility usage, being able to correctly assess and interpret figures allows you to make informed decisions. Unfortunately, not all figures are created equal.</p>
<p>If you can spot a figure’s pitfalls you can avoid the bad ones. Consider the following three key questions the next time you see a graph, map or other data visual so you can confidently decide what to do with that new nugget of information.</p>
<h2>What is this figure trying to tell me?</h2>
<p>Start by reading the title, looking at the labels and checking the caption. If these are not available – be very wary. Labels will be on the horizontal and vertical axes on graphs or in a legend on maps. People often overlook them, but this information is crucial for putting everything you see in the visualization into context.</p>
<p>Look at the units of measure – are they in days or years, Celsius or Fahrenheit, counts, age, or what? Are they evenly spaced along the axis? Many of the recent COVID-19 cumulative case graphs use a logarithmic scale, where the the intervals along the vertical axis are not equally spaced. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-3Mlj3MQ_Q">This creates confusion for people</a> unfamiliar with this format.</p>
<iframe width="100%" height="315" src="https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/embedded-video/mmvo80534597724" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figure><figcaption><span class="caption">A March 12 broadcast of ‘The Rachel Maddow Show’ included a graph with unlabeled numbers and a tricky horizontal axis.</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>For instance, a graph from “<a href="https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/u-s-unprepared-for-expected-explosion-in-coronavirus-cases-80534597724?cid=sm_fb_maddow">The Rachel Maddow Show” on MSNBC</a>, showed coronavirus cases in the United States between Jan. 21 and March 11. The x-axis units on the horizontal are time (in a month-day format) and the y-axis units on the vertical are presumably cumulative case counts, though it does not specify.</p>
<p>The main issue with this graph is that the time periods between consecutive dates are uneven.</p>
<p><iframe id="yzUp1" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/yzUp1/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>In a revised graph, with dates properly spaced through time, and coronavirus diagnoses plotted as a line graph, you can see more clearly what <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-cases-are-growing-exponentially-heres-what-that-means-135181">exponential growth</a> in the rate of infection really looks like. It took the first 30 days to add 33 cases, but only the last four to add 584 cases.</p>
<p>What may seem like a slight difference could help people understand how quickly exponential growth can go sky high and maybe change how they perceive the importance of curbing it.</p>
<h2>How are color, shape, size and perspective used?</h2>
<p><a href="https://eos.org/features/visualizing-science-how-color-determines-what-we-see">Color plays an important role</a> in how people interpret information. Color choices can make you notice particular patterns or draw your eye to certain aspects of a graphic.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349252/original/file-20200723-23-wgpj48.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349252/original/file-20200723-23-wgpj48.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=196&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349252/original/file-20200723-23-wgpj48.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=196&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349252/original/file-20200723-23-wgpj48.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=196&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349252/original/file-20200723-23-wgpj48.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=246&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349252/original/file-20200723-23-wgpj48.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=246&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349252/original/file-20200723-23-wgpj48.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=246&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Oregon landslide susceptibility.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Consider two maps depicting landslide susceptibility, which are exactly the same except for reversed color schemes. Your eye may be be drawn to darker shades, intuitively seeing those areas as at higher risk. After looking at the legend, which color order do you think best represents the information? By paying attention to <a href="https://www.khanacademy.org/humanities/hass-storytelling/storytelling-pixar-in-a-box/ah-piab-visual-language/v/color-visual">how color is used</a>, you can better understand how it influences what stands out to you and what you perceive.</p>
<p>Shape, size and orientation of features can also influence <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1756-8765.2011.01150.x">how you interpret a figure</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348978/original/file-20200722-32-o99maq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="confusing pie chart of employment data" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348978/original/file-20200722-32-o99maq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348978/original/file-20200722-32-o99maq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348978/original/file-20200722-32-o99maq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348978/original/file-20200722-32-o99maq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348978/original/file-20200722-32-o99maq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=764&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348978/original/file-20200722-32-o99maq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=764&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348978/original/file-20200722-32-o99maq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=764&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What industries employ Coloradans?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://dossier.ink-live.com/html5/reader/production/default.aspx?pubname=&edid=5f3a495a-fdef-463f-b826-6b92609f04c5">Hemispheres</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Pie charts, like this one showing employment breakdown for a region, are notoriously difficult to parse. Notice how hard it is to pull out which employment category is highest or how they rank. The pie chart’s wedges are not organized by size, there are too many categories (11!), the 3D perspective distorts the wedge sizes, and some wedges are separate from others making size comparisons almost impossible.</p>
<p><iframe id="yCDTo" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/yCDTo/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>A bar chart is a better option for an informative display and helps show which industries people are employed in.</p>
<h2>Where do the data come from?</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345601/original/file-20200703-33935-elrvg1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="screen shot of Twitter poll about Trump's performance" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345601/original/file-20200703-33935-elrvg1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345601/original/file-20200703-33935-elrvg1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345601/original/file-20200703-33935-elrvg1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345601/original/file-20200703-33935-elrvg1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345601/original/file-20200703-33935-elrvg1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345601/original/file-20200703-33935-elrvg1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345601/original/file-20200703-33935-elrvg1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Survey posted on ‘Lou Dobbs Tonight,’ requesting viewers vote on Twitter about Trump’s performance.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.mediaite.com/tv/lou-dobbs-invites-viewers-to-vote-on-trumps-coronavirus-leadership-superb-great-or-very-good/">Fox Business Network</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The source of data matters in terms of quality and reliability. This is especially true for partisan or politicized data. If the data are collected from a group that isn’t a good approximation of the population as a whole, then it may be biased.</p>
<p>For example, on March 18, Fox Business Network host Lou Dobbs polled his audience with the question “How would you grade President Trump’s leadership in the nation’s fight against the Wuhan Virus?” </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1240421216692961284"}"></div></p>
<p>Imagine if only Republicans were asked this question and how the results would compare if only Democrats were asked. In this case, respondents were part of a self-selecting group who already chose to watch Dobbs’ show. The poll can only tell you about that group’s opinions, not people in the U.S. generally, for instance.</p>
<p>[<em>Get facts about coronavirus and the latest research.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=coronavirus-facts">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter.</a>]</p>
<p>Then consider that Dobbs provided only positive responses in his multiple choice options – “superb, great or very good” – and it is clear that this data has a bias.</p>
<p>Spotting bias and improper data collection methods allows you to decide which information is trustworthy. </p>
<h2>Think through what you see</h2>
<p>During this pandemic, information is emerging hour by hour. Media consumers are inundated with facts, charts, graphs and maps every day. If you can take a moment to ask yourself a few questions about what you see in these data visualizations, you may walk away with a completely different conclusion than you might have had at first glance.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141348/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carson MacPherson-Krutsky receives funding from The National Science Foundation. She is the co-owner of HazardReady, LLC. </span></em></p>Visualizations can help you understand data better – but they can also confuse or mislead. Here, some tips on what to watch out for.Carson MacPherson-Krutsky, PhD Candidate in Geosciences, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1324172020-04-14T12:23:51Z2020-04-14T12:23:51ZIncome inequality is getting worse in US urban areas<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320256/original/file-20200312-111253-1k18iu7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Data shows that the gap has grown in recent years.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/miniature-people-carrying-coins-cart-man-1530032735">Hyejin Kang/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Income inequality has increased dramatically in the United States over recent decades, surpassing its previous peak in the 1920s. </p>
<p>In 2016, <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55413">the average income among the bottom 24.9 million households</a> was US$21,000. Meanwhile, the top 1%, or 1.2 million households, earned an average household income of $1.8 million. </p>
<p>These disparities have <a href="https://theconversation.com/expert-views-of-occupy-wall-street-3891">spurred social movements</a> and become a central issue for <a href="https://www.politico.com/2020-election/candidates-views-on-the-issues/economy/income-inequality/">some candidates in the 2020 U.S. presidential election</a>. </p>
<p>However, much of the attention has focused on inequality across the entire U.S. population, regardless of where individuals live. </p>
<p><a href="https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/mtu2w/">Our research</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/02/upshot/wealth-poverty-divide-american-cities.html">other studies</a> show that levels of income inequality within counties and cities vary considerably across the country.</p>
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<h2>Challenges in rural areas</h2>
<p>Our work focuses specifically on differences in income inequality between <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/rural-economy-population/rural-classifications/what-is-rural/">rural counties</a> and their <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/rural-economy-population/rural-classifications/what-is-rural/">urban counterparts</a>. </p>
<p>Using <a href="https://usa.ipums.org/usa/">U.S. Census Bureau data</a>, we looked at the Gini coefficient, a common measure of income inequality. </p>
<p>This measurement ranges from 0, where everyone earns exactly the same amount and there is complete equality, to 1, or complete inequality, where all resources are held by one individual or household. Values above 0.4 are often considered high, and <a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2172rank.html">values near or below 0.3</a> very low.</p>
<p>For most of the past five decades, income inequality has been higher in rural counties than in urban areas. </p>
<p>The most rural counties – those with the smallest, least dense populations – suffer <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/rural-urban-continuum-codes.aspx">the highest levels of income inequality</a>. Meanwhile, the most urban areas tend to have the lowest levels of inequality.</p>
<p><iframe id="aYVTU" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/aYVTU/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Narrowing the gap</h2>
<p>However, rural-urban differences at the county level have narrowed over the past decade or so. </p>
<p>On average, in 1970, the Gini coefficient within rural counties was 10.2% higher than within urban counties. In 2016, it was just 0.5% higher. This convergence is happening because inequality is worsening in urban areas – not because things are getting better in rural communities. </p>
<p>We found a similar pattern when comparing inequality between the most rural and most urban counties. </p>
<p>There is one exception: suburban counties. While suburban counties are getting more unequal, they are doing so at a much slower rate than the core cities in the nation’s metropolitan areas.</p>
<p>What’s more, more Americans now live in highly unequal counties. In 1970, 1% of the urban population lived in counties where the Gini coeffecient was over 0.48, an especially high score. In 2016, it was 8.2%.</p>
<p>Rural counties have seen a more modest increase in the proportion of their population living in highly unequal counties – from 5.7% to 7.6%.</p>
<p>Strikingly, the population living in low-inequality counties has all but disappeared. While 8.3% of the rural population and 30.0% of the urban population lived in low-inequality places in 1970, by 2016 virtually no Americans – less than 1% – lived in low-inequality places, where the Gini coefficient was less than 0.36.</p>
<p>In 2016, just 31 out of the 3,076 counties in the contiguous United States were considered low inequality, <a href="https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/mtu2w/">according to our analysis</a>.</p>
<h2>What this means</h2>
<p><a href="http://theconversation.com/six-charts-that-illustrate-the-divide-between-rural-and-urban-america-72934">Rural poverty</a> has received considerable attention from scholars and the media.</p>
<p>But persistently high levels of inequality in rural communities also suggest the need to study the substantial number of people at the high end of the economic spectrum. Little is known about who, exactly, falls at the top of the income distribution in rural communities. </p>
<p>If researchers knew more about the role of elites in the rural United States, they could develop more comprehensive explanations of why inequality and other economic development challenges persist.</p>
<p>In addition, our work shows that urban inequality is an increasingly important issue. Since the average level of income inequality within rural counties has changed little over the decades, it seems that the growing inequality within urban counties has driven income disparities nationwide. </p>
<p>This matters because research shows that living in high-inequality places is associated with <a href="https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/pdfplus/10.2105/AJPH.92.1.99">poor health</a> and <a href="https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/133/3/1163/4850659">diminished mobility up the socioeconomic ladder</a>.</p>
<p>Income inequality is clearly on the upswing in the United States, but this process is playing out unevenly across the different parts of the country.</p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132417/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brian Thiede has received funding from The United States Departments of Agriculture and Labor. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David L. Brown receives funding from USDA -NIFA. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jaclyn Butler receives funding from The United States Departments of Agriculture and Labor. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leif Jensen receives funding from USDA to support this research (Thiede, PI). </span></em></p>For most of the past five decades, income inequality has been higher in rural counties than in urban areas. Now, urban areas are catching up.Brian Thiede, Assistant Professor of Rural Sociology and Demography, Penn StateDavid L. Brown, Professor of Development Sociology, Emeritus, Cornell UniversityJaclyn Butler, Ph.D. Student in Rural Sociology and Demography, Pennsylvania State University, Penn StateLeif Jensen, Distinguished Professor of Rural Sociology and Demography, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1311252020-03-09T15:06:45Z2020-03-09T15:06:45ZWhy the US still hasn’t had a woman president<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318962/original/file-20200305-106553-11ttjfp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., speaks during a primary election night rally.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Election-2020-Elizabeth-Warren/ae2237983be04263a996bcb39bf4a3e3/7/0">AP Photo/Patrick Semansky</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Estonia, Singapore, Ethiopia and Finland – these are some of the 21 countries currently governed by a female president or prime minister. </p>
<p>Yet a woman president of the U.S. still remains only a hypothetical. </p>
<p>The 2020 Democratic nomination contest originally featured six women candidates, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-women/record-number-of-women-candidates-is-changing-dynamics-of-2020-u-s-presidential-race-idUSKCN1TR2OF">a record number</a>. But the most prominent female candidates for the Democratic nomination – Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar – have all dropped out, and the focus of the race has narrowed to two males.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.013.506">My research</a> examines what countries where women run the government have in common – and why the U.S. still lags behind.</p>
<h2>Where women lead</h2>
<p>Since 2000, 89 women have newly come to power. That’s more than double the total number of women who entered office between 1960 and 1999.</p>
<p><iframe id="zFyWl" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/zFyWl/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Women’s greater presence in <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/shattered-cracked-or-firmly-intact-9780190602093?cc=us&lang=en&">positions like senatorships</a> creates opportunities for women to rise up the ranks and become presidents and prime ministers. </p>
<p>Women have led in countries that have relative gender equality like Norway as well as more patriarchal spaces such as Pakistan.
However, women have more often held the position of prime minister, typically a weaker position than the presidency.</p>
<p><a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/shattered-cracked-or-firmly-intact-9780190602093?cc=us&lang=en&">The path to prime minister</a> depends on appointment rather than a direct popular vote. Moreover, term length is unpredictable. </p>
<p>When prime ministers govern, they usually rely heavily on parliamentary collaboration. Cabinet ministers are also given more autonomy to control their respective departments, compared to their counterparts in presidential systems.</p>
<p>Only about one-third of all female presidents to date were elected to the position. Others were appointed through various procedures. These include female vice presidents who succeeded presidents, as well as women who were appointed to the presidency to serve on a temporary basis when sudden openings occurred. Some were indirectly elected by officeholders in other political institutions such as the parliament. </p>
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<p>Political opportunities for women’s leadership often arise in times of crisis or change. For example, democratic transition in Asia, Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Europe enabled women to <a href="https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9781137482396">gain a political foothold</a>. </p>
<p>A common pathway to more powerful positions for women in Asia and Latin America is through being <a href="https://theconversation.com/dynasties-still-run-the-world-113098">the wife or daughter of a politically prominent man</a>. </p>
<h2>When women lead</h2>
<p>Having women in the highest positions can bring in more diverse viewpoints and new policy priorities.</p>
<p>For example, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s coalition, comprised of female-led parties, has passed a generous work leave measure that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/05/world/finland-parental-leave-policy-trnd/index.html">expands conceptions of gender roles and families</a>. Prime Ministers Katrin Jakobsdottir of Iceland and Jacinda Ardern of New Zealand <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50650155">prioritize family and green policies over growing the economy in budget planning</a>.</p>
<p>Scholars have found that women in power <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21565503.2018.1441034">build feelings of trust and legitimacy in the political system</a>.</p>
<p>Citizens have higher political interest and participation under female leadership. These benefits are not just enjoyed by women, but the population as a whole.</p>
<p>Women in high office also offer the public visible role models, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ajps.12351">inspiring other women to wage candidacies</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319160/original/file-20200306-118881-1ho5p4g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319160/original/file-20200306-118881-1ho5p4g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319160/original/file-20200306-118881-1ho5p4g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319160/original/file-20200306-118881-1ho5p4g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319160/original/file-20200306-118881-1ho5p4g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319160/original/file-20200306-118881-1ho5p4g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319160/original/file-20200306-118881-1ho5p4g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319160/original/file-20200306-118881-1ho5p4g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">German Chancellor Angela Merkel, left, and Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin, right, shake hands after a press conference.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Germany-Finland/ab6c9691c969428685bf8a5d633781d2/21/0">AP Photo/Michael Sohn</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Barriers still remaining</h2>
<p>The influential standing of the U.S. on the world stage magnifies the absence of an American woman president. What holds the U.S. back? </p>
<p>It is not the lack of qualified women. Record numbers of women currently serve <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/12/18/record-number-women-in-congress/">in the House and Senate</a>. Today, there are nine <a href="https://www.cawp.rutgers.edu/sites/default/files/resources/press-release-women-fficeholders-2019.pdf">female governors</a> in the U.S., matching previous highs in 2003 and 2007. These positions are usually <a href="https://womenrun.rutgers.edu/executive-summary/">important springboards to presidential office</a>.</p>
<p>Are Americans unwilling to vote for women candidates? Warren <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/1/14/21066598/women-electability-elizabeth-warren-amy-klobuchar-debate">challenged this notion at a January Democratic debate</a>: “The only people on this stage who have won every single election that they’ve been in are women: Amy [Klobuchar] and me.”</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/21565503.2019.1584749">Evidence from U.S. congressional elections</a> show similar rates of victory for women and men.</p>
<p>But women continue to encounter <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/pops.12040">more negative perceptions</a> from the public, political elites and the mass media regarding their leadership capabilities and competence, compared to their male counterparts. <a href="https://www.rienner.com/title/Madam_President_Gender_and_Politics_on_the_Road_to_the_White_House">Stereotypically masculine traits</a>, such as strength of leadership and quick decision-making, are often prized over stereotypically feminine traits like deliberation and compromise. </p>
<p>Women candidates are aware of this and often spend a significant amount of time implementing strategies to <a href="https://womenrun.rutgers.edu/barriers-to-progress/#doing-more-work">offset potential gender stereotypes</a>. These include emphasizing their strength and capacity to lead or images that balance masculine and feminine traits, in an effort to convince the public of their viability.</p>
<p>Women are also <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/it-still-takes-a-candidate/7BEAE647EF1B86EC62521AAFC159020B">less likely than men to run for office</a>, due to perceptions of sexism, limited political recruitment and underestimation of their qualifications.</p>
<p>That Hillary Clinton won nearly 3 million more votes than Donald Trump in 2016 confirms that a woman can wage a competitive presidential bid in the U.S. <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/polq.12737">Research using two national surveys</a>, however, found that sexist attitudes contributed, in part, to some voters’ decisions to vote for Trump instead of Clinton. </p>
<p>A woman will not be elected president of the U.S. in 2020. But the presence and actions of female candidates has sparked critical conversations among the public, politicians and pundits about women’s political status. </p>
<p>In my view, it is critical that public discourse about sexism does not lead to women opting out of future candidacies or further erode perceptions of women’s electability. </p>
<p><em>This story has been updated to correct the spelling of Jacinda Ardern.</em></p>
<p>[<em>Insight, in your inbox each day.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=insight">You can get it with The Conversation’s email newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131125/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Farida Jalalzai does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Since 2000, 89 new women have come to power in countries around the world – but the US still lags behind.Farida Jalalzai, Professor and Hannah Atkins Endowed Chair of Political Science, Oklahoma State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1301092020-03-09T12:18:39Z2020-03-09T12:18:39ZWhy some Americans don’t trust the census<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318492/original/file-20200304-66064-57e1nk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fears of the census may have informed the Bureau's 2020 tagline.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/05/shape-your-future-start-here.html">U.S. Census Bureau</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>More than <a href="http://apps.urban.org/features/2020-census/">4 million Americans</a> may not be represented in the upcoming 2020 census. </p>
<p>This is a problem, as the once-every-10-year census affects everything from federal funding to political representation to research projects that rely on accurate census data, like the ones <a href="https://www.ncdemography.org/staff/jessica-stanford/">my colleagues and I</a> conduct at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.</p>
<p>The 2020 census is fraught with uncertainty for a variety of reasons, including a lack of money, a growing distrust in government and the months of debate over the now-dropped citizenship question – which the Census Bureau itself called a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/11/01/663061835/citizenship-question-may-be-major-barrier-to-2020-census-participation">major barrier</a> to participation. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/100324/assessing_miscounts_in_the_2020_census_1.pdf">According to a report from the Urban Institute</a>, an economic and social policy think tank, in the Census Bureau’s 2018 Rhode Island <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/blog/2017/11/28/the-one-and-only-end-to-end-2020-census-test.aspx">census test</a>, “There were still reports that, despite the question’s exclusion, people did not want to answer the census because of immigration-related fears.”</p>
<p>Researchers who work with census data know that people don’t participate in the census for different reasons –- several of which may be related to fear over how data is stored and used.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318751/original/file-20200304-66089-17o5wkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318751/original/file-20200304-66089-17o5wkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318751/original/file-20200304-66089-17o5wkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318751/original/file-20200304-66089-17o5wkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318751/original/file-20200304-66089-17o5wkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318751/original/file-20200304-66089-17o5wkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318751/original/file-20200304-66089-17o5wkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318751/original/file-20200304-66089-17o5wkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Census Bureau conducted one run-through of the 2020 census in Rhode Island.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.census.gov/library/photos/2018/nrfu-providence.html">U.S. Census Bureau</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Mistrust of government</h2>
<p>The Census Bureau <a href="https://becountedmi2020.com/wp-content/uploads/CBAMS_Presentation_MNA_121218.pdf">conducted a survey in 2018</a> to better understand what attitudes the average American may hold about the census, and what motivates them to participate, if they choose to. </p>
<p>This data would ultimately help drive the bureau’s marketing strategy for the upcoming census, as well as identify key strategies for reaching hard-to-count communities.</p>
<p><a href="https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/program-management/final-analysis-reports/2020-report-cbams-study-survey.pdf">A nationally representative survey</a> was sent to 50,000 households across all 50 states. Approximately 17,500 people responded to the survey. These results were then weighted to represent all householders in the United States ages 18 and older. </p>
<p>The Bureau conducted 42 additional focus groups with audiences that are at risk of low census participation: racial and ethnic minorities, those with low internet proficiency, rural residents and people who recently moved.</p>
<p>They found a lack of trust in all levels of government, across all surveyed groups.</p>
<p><iframe id="hG936" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/hG936/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Roughly one-quarter of respondents were worried that their responses to the census would be used against them. Those most concerned? Non-Hispanic Asians, households not proficient in English and those born outside of the U.S.</p>
<p>A quarter of respondents were worried about data privacy and confidentiality. Racial and ethnic minorities were much more concerned about this than non-Hispanic whites.</p>
<p>Ten percent of the people surveyed believed incorrectly that the census could be used to “locate people living in the country without documentation.” Another 37% didn’t know if the data would be used in that way.</p>
<h2>Reasons to participate</h2>
<p>Over a quarter of households surveyed indicated a low likelihood – or no likelihood whatsoever – of filling out the census form this year. </p>
<p>In hopes of encouraging those least likely to participate in the census, the Census Bureau also sought to identify <a href="https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/program-management/final-analysis-reports/2020-report-cbams-study-survey.pdf">what would be most likely to motivate households to participate</a>. They asked respondents to choose from a list of options which was “the most important reason, to you personally, that you should fill out the census form.”</p>
<p>Many of these same communities that were concerned about data confidentiality and privacy also said that they are more likely to participate in the census if they are made aware of its benefits to the public good.</p>
<p>Funding for public works projects was the most popular choice, with 30% of householders identifying it as their primary or most important reason for participation.</p>
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<p>Younger respondents, ages 18 to 34, were most likely to select community-oriented answers like public funding as their prime reason for participation, rather than choices like “It is my civic duty” or “It is used to enforce civil rights laws.” Community-oriented answers were also most popular among Asian, black and Hispanic householders.</p>
<p>Most importantly, 69% of households who indicated that they were less likely to respond to the census identified community motivators as the most important reason to respond, compared to 58% of those with a high likelihood of filling out the census.</p>
<p>This information was used to inform the Census Bureau’s current ad campaign, <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/2020-census-ads-unveiling.html">“Shape your Future. Start here.”</a> The Bureau’s director, Steve Dillingham, wants to encourage Americans to take part in a “once-in-a-decade chance to inform how billions of dollars in funding are allocated for critical public services like hospitals and health care clinics, schools and education programs, roads and bridges and emergency response.”</p>
<h2>Threat of an undercount</h2>
<p>If distrust in the census remains high, a significant undercount could take place this year. </p>
<p>Distrust and low participation tends to be highest among groups that have been <a href="https://www.ncdemography.org/2019/04/01/census-2020-everything-you-need-to-know-about-north-carolinas-hard-to-count-communities/">historically undercounted</a> in previous censuses: <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/2020-census/research-testing/undercount-of-young-children.html">young children</a>, renters, people of color and those who live in large households.</p>
<p>In my view, with <a href="https://gwipp.gwu.edu/counting-dollars-2020-role-decennial-census-geographic-distribution-federal-funds">roughly US$1.5 trillion in federal funding</a> for programs that rely on census data, it is imperative that the census count be as accurate and complete as possible, and that individuals across the United States understand its impact.</p>
<p>[<em>Want to learn more about the 2020 census?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/census-72">Sign up here for our new newsletter course</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130109/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jessica Stanford works for Carolina Demography, a demographic research consulting service which has provided analysis to the NC Counts Coalition, a non-profit which seeks to achieve a complete and accurate Census count.
They have funded previous works of ours, including the Hard-to-Count interactive map featured on their website. </span></em></p>A quarter of Americans, many of them non-white, are worried about data privacy and confidentiality in the 2020 census.Jessica Stanford, Demographic Analyst, University of North Carolina at Chapel HillLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1329382020-03-05T12:47:26Z2020-03-05T12:47:26ZAmericans still trust doctors and scientists during a public health crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318694/original/file-20200304-66052-wvpf7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Microbiologist Xiugen Zhang working at the Connecticut State Public Health Laboratory.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Virus-Outbreak-Surgeon-General/f52fb7cedb654b5dbb5107ee639cccc0/40/0">AP Photo/Jessica Hill</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The coronavirus epidemic is a health crisis that threatens Americans’ quality of life. Who do Americans trust to lead them through it?</p>
<p>The public opinion firm YouGov has reported that public trust of scientists fell from <a href="https://today.yougov.com/topics/science/articles-reports/2013/12/09/poll-results-science">2013</a> to <a href="http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/tabsHPScienceandPolitics20170428.pdf">2017</a>. But trust in scientists and the benefits of science remains high, according to <a href="https://www.nsf.gov/statistics/2018/nsb20181/report/sections/science-and-technology-public-attitudes-and-understanding/public-attitudes-about-s-t-in-general">statistics from the National Science Foundation</a>. </p>
<p>We were interested in whether that trust persisted in the midst of the coronavirus epidemic. From Feb. 17 through Feb. 25, <a href="https://scr.uoregon.edu/">we asked</a> 1,279 Americans whether they were liberal or conservative and how much they trusted different people and groups to reduce the risk of a coronavirus epidemic in the U.S.</p>
<p>Not surprisingly, people’s politics predicted their trust in politicians. Among the 500 conservatives in our sample, 64% reported moderate to extreme trust in President Donald Trump. Less than 10% of the 779 liberals reported similar trust in him.</p>
<p>However, politics did not predict who was most trusted. Across the political spectrum, the most trusted were the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and doctors. </p>
<p>In fact, 75% of liberals and 80% of conservatives reported moderate to extreme levels of trust in the CDC to reduce U.S. risk of a coronavirus epidemic. Seventy-seven percent of liberals and 80% of conservatives also trusted doctors and other clinicians. </p>
<p>These groups likely <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/116/16/7670">earned the public’s trust</a> by providing information that mattered in comprehensible and accessible ways.</p>
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<p>These findings are important because messages from trusted sources are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1559-1816.2004.tb02547.x">typically more persuasive</a>. People follow recommendations more when they come from a trusted person or group. As a result, when someone you trust tells you to <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission.html">avoid close contact with sick people</a>, not touch your face, and cover your coughs and sneezes with a tissue, you are more likely to do so. This suggests that getting messages from nonpartisan experts is more likely to help reduce <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13438">U.S. and global disease spread</a>.</p>
<p>Our findings also indicated that most people trust their ability to reduce their own coronavirus risk. But they need accurate and actionable information to know how. Getting messages from trusted sources likely will have a bigger impact, but the federal government wants <a href="https://nyti.ms/2HXsdnw">control over coronavirus messages</a> sent out by health officials. </p>
<p>Other individuals and groups were less trusted than the CDC and doctors. We plan to monitor changes in trustworthiness for these individuals and groups and others over time. We expect perceived trust to change as the situation changes.</p>
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<p>With this emerging threat, all Americans need the highest quality science transmitted by trusted sources. Doing so will encourage healthier decisions as the number of cases around the world continues to rise.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132938/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ellen Peters receives funding from the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brittany Shoots-Reinhard receives funding from the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Silverstein receives funding from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raleigh Goodwin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In a survey, a majority of liberals and conservatives reported that they trust doctors and the CDC to reduce US risk of a coronavirus epidemic.Ellen Peters, Director, Center for Science Communication Research, University of OregonBrittany Shoots-Reinhard, Research Assistant Professor of Psychology, The Ohio State UniversityMichael Silverstein, Doctoral Student in Psychology, University of OregonRaleigh Goodwin, Doctoral Student in Psychology, University of OregonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1289622020-02-20T12:18:27Z2020-02-20T12:18:27ZThe US birth rate keeps declining: 4 questions answered<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314555/original/file-20200210-109930-vlde1g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Many American women are having children later in life.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/newborn-baby-first-many-small-hospital-1103569475">Sopotnicki/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the last few decades, <a href="https://www.un.org/press/en/2003/pop850.doc.htm">birth rates</a> have decreased across the globe.</p>
<p>The United States is no exception. Aside from a few years in the mid-2000s, the number of births in the United States have been falling for the last three decades and have now reached their lowest number in 32 years.</p>
<p>The country is now below <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/births.htm">population replacement rates</a> as a nation. This means that the population will start to shrink in numbers, generation by generation.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.obgyn.pitt.edu/people/marie-n-menke-md-mph">a specialist in infertility</a>, I see women who live this trend on a daily basis as they struggle with their decisions regarding childbearing and fertility.</p>
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<h2>1. Why are birth rates declining?</h2>
<p>There can be many reasons, and not all of them are bad. Certainly the reduction in <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/teen-births.htm">teenage birth rates</a> – from 41.5 per 1,000 women in 2007 to 17.4 per 1,000 women in 2018 – should be welcome news. </p>
<p>Age plays a role as well. While birth rates declined for nearly all age groups under 35, they rose for women in their late 30s and early 40s. This data shows that women are delaying childbearing. </p>
<p>Indeed, over the last decade, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported an <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db21.htm">increase in average age at first birth</a> and an eight-fold increase in proportion of first births to women aged 35 years or older. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/births.htm">mean age at first birth</a> in the U.S. is now at a record high – 26.9 years in 2018.</p>
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<h2>2. Is delayed childbearing a problem?</h2>
<p>Like all choices, having children later in life comes with pros and cons.</p>
<p>At the population level, delayed childbearing results in <a href="https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/factsheets/index.asp">a slowed pace of population growth</a>. It changes the distribution of the population by age and reduces the number of children relative to the size of the working-age population. </p>
<p>On the individual level, delayed childbearing offers the opportunity to seek financial stability before starting a family.</p>
<p>However, delayed childbearing has been implicated in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1097/AOG.0000000000002853">increased rates of multiple births</a>, both with and without assisted reproductive technology, as well as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.109.3.399">pregnancy-associated complications</a>, such as gestational diabetes and preeclampsia.</p>
<p>Similarly, as women get older, they are less likely to become pregnant without medical assistance or to avoid a C-section.</p>
<p>While a woman attempting to conceive in her early 30s has a <a href="https://www.reproductivefacts.org/resources/infographic-gallery/images/your-chance-of-pregnancy-each-month-declines-with-age/">20% chance of getting pregnant per month</a>, a 40-year-old woman has a 5% chance.</p>
<p>The likelihood is high that many of these women in the older brackets of childbearing will have turned to infertility treatment as a method to build their families. In the U.S. in 2007, approximately <a href="https://www.sartcorsonline.com/rptCSR_PublicMultYear.aspx?reportingYear=2017">6,000 IVF cycles</a> were started in women over 42 using their own eggs. By 2017, this number was over 10,000.</p>
<h2>3. Why are women waiting?</h2>
<p>The CDC reports population-level statistics based on <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db346.htm">births per 1,000 women</a>.</p>
<p>However, these rates do not show the number of women who delayed childbearing and subsequently could not conceive, or the reasons why women might have waited.</p>
<p>Female fertility declines with age, but almost one-third of women who visit a fertility clinic <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/humrep/des409">report they expected to get pregnant without difficulty at age 40</a>. This is simply <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02646838.2017.1320363">not the case</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19135565">Some studies</a> suggest that relationships and enjoyment of current lifestyle are a major reason for delay. In my clinic, women frequently cite work and education. Many of my patients wanted to wait until they were in a better place in their life before starting their family.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315062/original/file-20200212-61958-rn49vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315062/original/file-20200212-61958-rn49vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315062/original/file-20200212-61958-rn49vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315062/original/file-20200212-61958-rn49vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315062/original/file-20200212-61958-rn49vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315062/original/file-20200212-61958-rn49vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315062/original/file-20200212-61958-rn49vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315062/original/file-20200212-61958-rn49vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Female fertility declines with age.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/pregnant-woman-looking-ultrasound-scan-baby-303963932">Phil Jones/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. I’m not ready – what should I do?</h2>
<p>Treatment options for women who have difficulty conceiving with fertility treatment are limited. </p>
<p>Although some women do still conceive with their own eggs, the national <a href="https://www.sartcorsonline.com/rptCSR_PublicMultYear.aspx?reportingYear=2017">average live birth rate in women over the age of 42</a> is approximately 3% among women who undergo IVF using their own eggs. Individual medical history may raise or lower this percentage, but not to a large degree. </p>
<p>For women who are not ready to conceive, but wish to preserve the option for use of their own eggs, elective oocyte cryopreservation, or <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30396539">egg freezing</a>, has become increasingly available. Women should understand this is an option to preserve the chance, but not a guarantee, for future childbearing.</p>
<p>The American Society of Reproductive Medicine and the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists have <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18669745">stressed the need for education and immediate evaluation</a> of age-associated fertility decline.</p>
<p>Whatever the underlying reason, the increased birth rates at later ages are enough to suggest that education on the risks and benefits of delayed childbearing should start early. Although I’d hope this discussion could occur in a general practitioner’s setting, the reality with health care today is that a physician office visit has to cover a lot of ground. By the time a woman is ready to discuss fertility, it may already be more difficult to conceive than she realizes. </p>
<p>As more and more families face declining fertility, the chance to learn and discuss at early stages of family planning have never been more important.</p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128962/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marie Menke does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The number of births in the United States have been falling for the last three decades, reaching their lowest number in 32 years.Marie Menke, Assistant Professor of Obstetrics, Gynecology & Reproductive Sciences, University of PittsburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1311132020-02-18T13:55:41Z2020-02-18T13:55:41ZTrump supporters have little trust in societal institutions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313659/original/file-20200205-149762-1s5k16k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally on Jan. 28 in Wildwood, New Jersey.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2020-Trump/3288904a7be64f0488ce9f81da7d225f/126/0">AP Photo/Mel Evans</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Donald Trump has a history of disregarding advice from experts, including <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/19/us/politics/dan-coats-trump-russia.html">diplomats</a>, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/11/military-officers-trump/598360/">military leaders</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/06/trump-is-increasingly-relying-himself-not-his-aides-trade-war-with-china/">trade experts</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/epa-science-advisers-slammed-agency-ignoring-science-here-what-they-said">scientists</a>. </p>
<p>Trump is not alone in his distrust. <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=eiPR5agAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Our</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=KcqhD_wAAAAJ">unpublished</a> <a href="http://personalised-communication.net/expo/">research</a> shows that people who support Trump have lower trust in societal institutions, when compared with supporters of leading Democratic candidates Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. </p>
<h2>Trust ratings</h2>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=H5mrkAkAAAAJ">We</a> asked 930 U.S. residents via an online survey how much they trust six institutions that are key to a working democracy. </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=QSYmWVYAAAAJ">We</a> chose three institutions that Americans perceive as liberal – journalists, professors and scientists – and three that conservatives either traditionally support or currently control – the police, the Supreme Court and the federal government. Each institution fulfills an essential role within a democratic society, but depends on the others to function properly.</p>
<p>We also asked participants to report how warm or cold they felt toward Trump, Warren, Sanders and Biden on a scale from 0 to 100.</p>
<p>Even when we controlled for age, education, gender, ethnicity and ideology, Trump supporters had the lowest trust in the six institutions, at 3.75 out of 7 – at least 11.4% lower than anyone else we surveyed.</p>
<p>That means that the patterns we are seeing aren’t caused by fitting a particular demographic profile or having conservative beliefs. In fact, conservatives who do not support Trump had the highest trust in these institutions. </p>
<p>This suggests that there’s something about supporting Trump that shapes how much trust Americans have in the country’s core social and political institutions.</p>
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<p>When we looked at each institution individually, we found that Trump supporters had significantly lower trust in journalists, professors and scientists – the more stereotypically liberal institutions – than supporters of the Democratic candidates.</p>
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<p>But the reverse was not true. Democratic candidate supporters trusted the police, the Supreme Court and the federal government as much as Trump supporters. The one exception was Biden supporters, who actually trusted the Supreme Court significantly more than Trump supporters did.</p>
<h2>A tower of trust</h2>
<p>Although our sample was not representative of the U.S. population, we think that these findings provide valuable insight into the state of U.S. democracy. </p>
<p>We don’t yet know which comes first. Does being a Trump supporter lead to lower trust in societal institutions, does having lower trust in these institutions lead people to support Trump, or do both play a role? </p>
<p>If being a Trump supporter leads to low trust, this could be a result of Trump’s influence, given his apparent distrust in expert advice. If people who have low trust in these institutions are attracted to supporting Trump, then this is cause for concern, considering that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055419000352">previous research</a> shows that politicians are more responsive to their supporters than they are to the general public. </p>
<p>Politicians have the trust of their supporters, and those supporters generally trust some institutions as well. That gives those institutions power to hold the politicians accountable. If the supporters don’t trust in institutions, they have less power to enforce accountability.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15705854.2010.524403">Research</a> <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2967051">has</a> <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt7s8r7">shown</a> that institutions are most efficient and effective when people trust them.</p>
<p>The interdependent nature of institutions means that if one becomes ineffective, the others will be affected as well. For example, if citizens lose trust in journalists, journalists will not be able to keep citizens informed. If citizens are ill-informed, they may not make the best decisions when voting or lobbying their democratic representatives, which in turn may decrease the effectiveness of the government.</p>
<p>Like a stack of Jenga blocks, each institution that is removed makes the whole stack less stable.</p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131113/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Miriam Boon receives funding from ERC Starting Grant EXPO 756301, PI Magdalena Wojcieszak.. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andreu Casas Salleras receives funding from ERC Starting Grant EXPO 756301, PI Magdalena Wojcieszak</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ericka Menchen-Trevino receives funding from ERC Starting Grant EXPO 756301, PI Magdalena Wojcieszak. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Magdalena Wojcieszak receives funding from ERC Starting Grant EXPO 756301, PI Magdalena Wojcieszak and Facebook Integrity Foundational Research Awards, PI Magdalena Wojcieszak. </span></em></p>In a survey, Trump supporters showed the lowest faith in the Supreme Court, the federal government, the media and other pillars of society.Miriam Boon, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of AmsterdamAndreu Casas Salleras, Research Fellow at the Amsterdam School of Communication Research, University of AmsterdamEricka Menchen-Trevino, Assistant Professor, American University School of CommunicationMagdalena Wojcieszak, Professor of Communications, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1282022020-02-12T18:06:48Z2020-02-12T18:06:48ZThe secondhand smoke you’re breathing may have come from another state<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308375/original/file-20200102-11900-rr4n6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Secondhand smoke may come from many miles away.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/concept-smoke-enveloped-head-man-portrait-1049554265">David Tadevosian/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP507">Scientists estimate</a> that each year in the U.S., outdoor air pollution shortens the lives of about 100,000 people by one to two decades. </p>
<p>As it turns out, much of this pollution originates not in a person’s own neighborhood, but up to hundreds or even thousands of miles away in neighboring states. And, absent strong federal regulations, there’s very little Americans can do about it. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-1983-8">In a study</a> published on Feb. 12, we used state-of-the-art modeling to estimate the number of air pollution-related deaths that combustion emissions – those from any kind of burning, from cook stoves to car engines to coal power plants – from each state have caused in every other state over the past 14 years.</p>
<p>On average, 41% of these air pollution deaths in the U.S. resulted from what we call “secondhand smoke” emissions that crossed state lines. </p>
<p>This share has been declining over time, down from 53% in 2005, thanks in large part to reductions in sulfur dioxide emissions from the electric power sector. However, not every sector, or every state, has been a success story.</p>
<h2>Secondhand smoke – but nationwide</h2>
<p>The problem is like what people experience when they are exposed to secondhand cigarette smoke. The smoker endangers their own life the most, but the smoke that gets passed on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(10)61388-8">still poses serious health risks</a> to those exposed. </p>
<p>Outdoor air pollution works this way on a national scale. States emit pollution that, with rare exception, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-1983-8">causes the most air quality issues for people within the same state</a>. But that pollution also crosses state lines, leading to tens of thousands of additional early deaths.</p>
<p>Without strong regulations, people in neighboring states have no control over their exposure to “imported” air pollution. They will simply have to put up with it, just as restaurant diners or airline passengers used to do when seated near the smoking section.</p>
<h2>Improvements and stagnation</h2>
<p>We used estimates of combustion-related emissions from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s <a href="https://www.epa.gov/air-emissions-inventories/national-emissions-inventory-nei">National Emissions Inventories</a>. These estimates break down emissions by sector – rail, road, commercial and electricity generation – and chemical species – sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and soot. </p>
<p>Using computer models of the movement and chemistry of air pollution, we were able to calculate the contribution that each sector made to pollution across the country, and how this has changed over time. </p>
<p>For example, we calculated that over 70% of all electricity generation-related early deaths occurred outside of the state in which the emitting plant is located.</p>
<p>In 2005, emissions from this source caused about 24,000 early deaths in the U.S. – 6,000 in the states where the plants were based, but 18,000 in other states. By 2018 those figures had dropped to 9,000 total.</p>
<p>Federal regulations – such as the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/csapr/overview-cross-state-air-pollution-rule-csapr">Cross-State Air Pollution Rule</a> and its predecessor, the <a href="https://archive.epa.gov/airmarkets/programs/cair/web/html/index.html">Clean Air Interstate Rule</a> – enabled this improvement by mandating reductions in power plant emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. The EPA has made huge progress in this area by any standard. </p>
<p>Similarly, <a href="https://www.epa.gov/transportation-air-pollution-and-climate-change/timeline-major-accomplishments-transportation-air">improving emissions standards for road vehicles</a> between 2005 and 2018 reduced the health impacts from road pollution by 50%, from around 37,000 to 18,000 early deaths per year.</p>
<p>Other sectors have been less successful. Although emissions from rail transportation have fallen over the same period, the total number of early deaths due to their emissions has stayed almost the same. This is due in part to the fact that the air is getting cleaner. As it does so, more pollution will form in response to the same emissions – regardless of the specific sector. Reductions in rail emissions have been too modest to compete with this change. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, early deaths due to emissions of fine particulate matter from the commercial and residential sectors, such as soot from heating and cooking, have increased, from around 20,000 early deaths in 2005 to 28,000 in 2018. Of these, about one-third came from activity originating in another state.</p>
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<h2>Different land, same air</h2>
<p>The number of deaths occurring in each state is not uniform across the U.S., even in percentage terms. The different population densities, distributions and industrial compositions of each state also play a role, as does state policy. </p>
<p>For example, we found that only 3% of the total U.S. early deaths caused by California’s combustion emissions are exported to other states. By contrast, Wyoming exports 96% of the early deaths from its emissions. That’s because Wyoming is small, sparsely populated, upwind of the East Coast and has a large industrial base. </p>
<p>For any given state, these exports are mostly balanced by imported pollution from upwind states, but there are some notable exceptions. A case in point is the Northeast, which exports much of its own emissions out to the ocean.</p>
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<p>Overall, our findings reflect the need not only for ongoing investigation of U.S. cross-state air pollution, but also for federal regulation that’s strong enough to significantly reduce it and help save Americans’ lives.</p>
<p>The Clean Air Interstate and Cross-State Air Pollution Rules have brought significant improvements, reflected in the overall downward trend we find for combustion air pollution-related deaths in the U.S. over the last 14 years. But more work at the national level is needed to bring these numbers down further.</p>
<p>Until then, states and their residents will continue to have no refuge from their neighbors’ secondhand smoke.</p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128202/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sebastian Eastham receives relevant funding from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, NASA, and the VoLo Foundation. He is affiliated with the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steven Barrett receives relevant funding from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, NASA, and the VoLo Foundation. </span></em></p>According to a new study, about four in 10 air pollution deaths in the US are due to emissions crossing state lines.Sebastian Eastham, Research Scientist, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)Steven Barrett, Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1286012020-02-11T13:53:40Z2020-02-11T13:53:40ZHundreds of county jails detained immigrants for ICE<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309140/original/file-20200108-107204-t20a1k.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Theo Lacy Facility in Orange, California. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Emily Ryo</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Hundreds of county jails in the U.S. are <a href="https://perma.cc/5S8M-4E3A">paid by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)</a> to detain immigrants facing removal proceedings. </p>
<p>On a typical day in 2017, for instance, <a href="https://perma.cc/V7HL-UX89">Theo Lacy Facility</a> in Orange, California, operated by the Orange County Sheriff’s Department, held about 500 individuals for ICE and received US$118 per person per day, bringing in a total of $59,000 a day. </p>
<p>More so than federally operated facilities, county jails, along with facilities operated by for-profit companies, have come to hold for ICE the <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3216865">lion’s share of immigrant detainees facing removal proceedings</a>. </p>
<p>Removal proceedings are civil actions that federal immigration authorities bring against individuals alleged to have violated U.S. immigration laws. And U.S. law treats <a href="http://www.annualreviews.org/eprint/AAHPXJNV63MQBAP4JD4C/full/10.1146/annurev-lawsocsci-101518-042743">immigration detention</a> as civil, not criminal, confinement. </p>
<p>So why are these immigrants being held in county jails, the place where usually only those charged with criminal law violations are held by local, not federal, officials?</p>
<p>In <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/lasr.12459">our study</a> published on January 29, we set out to investigate this widespread use of local penal institutions for civil confinement purposes. As <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=2114441">scholars who study immigration</a>, we wanted to understand which counties jail immigrant detainees and what those counties have in common.</p>
<h2>Agreements with ICE</h2>
<p>To hold immigrant detainees for ICE, state and local governments enter into agreements with ICE known as <a href="https://perma.cc/QB8C-95ES">Intergovernmental Service Agreements</a>. These agreements require ICE to pay the local government per diem for each bed that the local government rents out. Some local governments contract with private prison companies to operate their jails. </p>
<p>These agreements with ICE have come under increasing scrutiny and criticism by government watchdogs, media and activists, for allowing ICE to avoid the public bidding process and to operate without standard operating procedures required of other federal awards.</p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://perma.cc/CYJ9-8TA4">U.S. Office of Inspector General</a>, avoidance of the public bidding process has meant that “ICE may have overpaid for detention services,” and “ICE has no assurance that it executed detention center contracts in the best interest of the Federal Government, taxpayers or detainees.” </p>
<p>To better understand these agreements, we analyzed the <a href="https://www.vera.org/in-our-backyards#">In Our Backyards data</a> from Vera Institute of Justice, a nonprofit focused on reforming the U.S. criminal justice system. This data set contains county-level information on prison and jail populations over time across the United States. We also compiled various measurements that capture local conditions.</p>
<p>Our period of observation starts in 1983 – the year that the <a href="https://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=dcdetail&iid=254">Bureau of Justice Statistics</a> started tracking this issue – and ends in 2013, the most recent year for which census data on all county jails is available. </p>
<p>Our findings are critical for understanding the current moment. ICE continues to maintain <a href="https://perma.cc/5S8M-4E3A">hundreds of Intergovernmental Service Agreements</a>. In addition, the Trump administration has <a href="https://perma.cc/J885-STBH">revived</a> other local-federal arrangements that had been reduced in scope and scale <a href="https://perma.cc/M29A-TT7A">during the Obama administration</a>. Our study allows us to better understand where, how and under what circumstances such programs might attract local cooperation under the Trump administration. </p>
<h2>By the numbers</h2>
<p>Although immigration detention has drawn a great deal of public attention only recently due to Trump administration’s hardline policies, immigration detention – including detention in local jails – has a long history.</p>
<p>We found that the number of counties holding immigrant detainees grew over time, steadily rising from 128 counties in 1983 to 727 counties in 2013. That’s a nearly sixfold increase. </p>
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<p>This rise in county involvement was most heavily concentrated in the southern U.S. By 2013, over half of all participating counties were located in the South. </p>
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<p>The largest growth was also concentrated in small to midsized counties outside of urban metropolitan areas. By 2013, four of every 10 counties holding immigrants for ICE were rural.</p>
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<p>We also found that the growth of counties holding immigrant detainees was overwhelmingly concentrated in Republican Party strongholds. This result is not due to the Republican Party dominating southern counties. Our regression analysis – a statistical method that examines the relationship between multiple variables – shows that counties that were switching from voting for Democrat to Republican presidents became more likely to contract with ICE. </p>
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<p>Counties were also more likely to participate in immigrant detention if they experienced worsening local labor market conditions, combined with increases in empty jail beds. It’s likely that both of these conditions heighten counties’ perception of economic benefits to entering into contracts with ICE. </p>
<p>Finally, we found that, up to a certain point, counties with a growing local Latino population were more likely to participate in immigration detention. </p>
<h2>Why this matters</h2>
<p>Our study raises important questions for the <a href="https://perma.cc/B235-8WXL">anti-detention movement</a> – a social movement seeking to end immigration detention in the United States.</p>
<p>Take Theo Lacy, for example. In March 2019, Theo Lacy announced that it will <a href="https://perma.cc/Y3WR-8TTF">end its contract</a> with ICE in 2020. This decision was due in part to a successful immigrant rights campaign to end detention in Orange County. </p>
<p>But local decisions to cease county jail contracts with ICE may result in ICE increasingly transferring detainees to local jurisdictions that are more remote or hostile to immigrant rights. <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3216868">Research shows</a> that such transfers can be extremely detrimental to detainees’ ability to access information and resources that enable them to enforce their legal rights. </p>
<p>For example, detainees who are transferred to remote parts of the country are often <a href="https://perma.cc/LP5F-XZUG">separated from family, friends and community volunteers</a> who can provide emotional support, help them in gathering evidence and preparing them for their court hearings. Accessing <a href="https://perma.cc/5CNH-N6VC">interpreters and lawyers</a> is much harder in remote areas of the country. </p>
<p>In addition, transfers can mean changes in the controlling law that governs the detainees’ immigration case, because the case will be governed by the <a href="https://scholarship.law.ufl.edu/flr/vol66/iss3/5/">law of the federal circuit</a> in the jurisdiction in which the immigrant is detained.</p>
<p>In 2016, <a href="https://perma.cc/VF87-88PJ">the Homeland Security Advisory Council recommended</a> that ICE rely only minimally on county jails, because officials operating facilities that were serving both criminal inmate and immigrant detainee populations showed resistance to accepting the full range of <a href="https://perma.cc/L9FA-L3K2">civil detention standards applicable to immigrant detainees</a>. </p>
<p>While the civil detention standards roughly resemble guidelines for criminal incarceration in areas like medical care, hygiene and food, civil detention standards also provide greater opportunities for detainees to retain personal clothing, have greater freedom of movement inside facilities and enjoy an expanded set of recreational activities. </p>
<p>Holding immigrant detainees in jails may also strengthen the public’s <a href="https://perma.cc/8JQ8-AGMY">unfounded assumptions</a> about the criminality of immigrants, given that the public often assumes that jails are only for criminal defendants awaiting their trials or for those serving their criminal sentence. Immigrant detainees themselves <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3039603">fear such stigmatization</a>. </p>
<p>In recent years, public pressure and political will to <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/7/13/8913297/mass-incarceration-maps-charts">reduce the criminally incarcerated population</a> in the United States have gained strength. Yet our findings suggest that criminal justice reforms that reduce the number of individuals in jails and prisons may generate new opportunities for struggling counties to fill their empty jail beds with a new supply of immigrant detainees. </p>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128601/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The research reported here was supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the California Wellness Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointments.</span></em></p>Between 1983 and 2013, the number of immigrants detained in rural county jails has increased.Emily Ryo, Professor of Law and Sociology, University of Southern CaliforniaIan Peacock, Ph.D. Candidate in Sociology, University of California, Los AngelesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1312642020-02-07T14:58:27Z2020-02-07T14:58:27ZReal pay data show Trump’s ‘blue collar boom’ is more of a bust for US workers, in 3 charts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314072/original/file-20200206-43069-v051d3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C59%2C4947%2C3231&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">When looking at your paycheck, don't forget about inflation.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Leif Skoogfors/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you thought workers’ hourly pay was finally rising, think again. </p>
<p>At first glance, the latest data – which came out on Feb. 7 – look pretty good. They show nominal hourly earnings <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm">rose 3.1% in January</a> from a year earlier. </p>
<p>But the operative word here is nominal, which means not adjusted for changes in the cost of living. Once you factor in inflation, the picture changes drastically. And far from representing a “blue collar boom” – as the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/05/us/politics/state-of-union-transcript.html">president put it in his State of the Union address</a> – the real, inflation-adjusted data show most U.S. workers have not benefited from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-economy-produced-about-21-7-trillion-in-goods-and-services-in-2019-but-what-does-gdp-really-mean-130685">growing economy</a>. </p>
<p>As an <a href="https://publicpolicy.umbc.edu/david-salkever/">economist who studies wage data</a>, I think it’s paramount that we take a step back and look at what the data really show. </p>
<h2>The effect of inflation and fringes</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.bls.gov">Bureau of Labor Statistics</a> comes out with two sets of data on wages. </p>
<p>Business journalists and financial markets tend to focus on the monthly data. These figures are only reported in nominal or current terms because the inflation data doesn’t come out until later. </p>
<p>A more complete set of wage and pay data is reported quarterly. The latest release came out in December for the third quarter. These figures are not only adjusted for inflation but also include fringe benefits, which account for just under a third of total compensation.</p>
<p>At first blush, it makes sense to focus primarily on the first set. Newer data is, well, newer, and market participants and companies prefer the latest information when making decisions about investments, hiring and so on. </p>
<p>But the effect of inflation means that the same US$1 bill buys less stuff over time as prices increase. </p>
<p>From December 2016 to September 2019, nominal wages rose 6.79% from $22.83 to $24.38. But after factoring in inflation, average wages barely budged, climbing just 0.42% in the period. </p>
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<p>Incorporating fringe benefits into the picture adds another wrinkle. </p>
<p>The inflation-adjusted or real value of fringe benefits, which include compensation that comes in the form of health insurance, retirement and bonuses, declined 1.7% in the three-year period. </p>
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<p>Altogether, that means total real compensation slipped 0.22% from the end of 2016 to September 2019. </p>
<p>Of course, workers in different sectors have fared differently. The Trump administration has singled out manufacturing workers – who it says are the main beneficiaries of its trade war and other policies intended to support the sector – as having benefited from a “blue collar boom” in wages. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314071/original/file-20200206-43113-175uvqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C55%2C1853%2C1185&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314071/original/file-20200206-43113-175uvqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314071/original/file-20200206-43113-175uvqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314071/original/file-20200206-43113-175uvqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314071/original/file-20200206-43113-175uvqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314071/original/file-20200206-43113-175uvqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314071/original/file-20200206-43113-175uvqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Donald Trump puts on a hard hat in 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Matt Rourke</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The nominal data for manufacturing workers hardly support a boom but they do show an increase of 2.22% since Donald Trump took office. </p>
<p>The adjusted data, however, make it look more like a bust, with wages plunging 3.88% in the period. And, again, the situation is worse when we add in fringe benefits, which brings the decline to 4.33%. </p>
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<p>So next time you read a story about a rise in pay, try to see if it reports the wage data in nominal or real terms, and if it includes fringe benefits too. If it’s only nominal wages, the numbers may mean a lot less than they seem. </p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131264/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Salkever does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In his State of the Union address, Trump said workers are experiencing a boom in wages. The numbers say different.David Salkever, Professor Emeritus of Public Policy, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1284992020-01-09T13:32:32Z2020-01-09T13:32:32ZChildren of color already make up the majority of kids in many US states<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308440/original/file-20200103-11914-1oxuiw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The U.S. white majority is shrinking. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/group-children-field-trips-611167166">Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Demographers project that whites will become a minority in the U.S. in around 2045, <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2018/cb18-41-population-projections.html">dropping below 50% of the population</a>. </p>
<p>That’s a quarter-century from now – still a long way away, right?</p>
<p>Not if you focus on children. White children right now are on the eve of becoming a numerical minority.</p>
<p>The U.S. Census Bureau projects that, by the middle of 2020, nonwhites will account for <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2018/cb18-41-population-projections.html">the majority of the nation’s 74 million children</a>. </p>
<h2>Children in 2018</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-white-majority-will-soon-disappear-forever-115894">The share of the U.S. non-Hispanic white population</a> has fallen since the mid-20th century.</p>
<p><iframe id="pyvDR" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/pyvDR/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Between 2010 and 2018, the number of white children fell by 2.8 million, or 7.1%. In contrast, nonwhite children grew by 6.1%. </p>
<p>In 2018, the last year for which data are currently available, the proportion of people in the U.S. under 18 years of age was <a href="https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t">just barely more white than nonwhite</a>.</p>
<p>However, children under 11 were more nonwhite than white.</p>
<p><iframe id="mp3U9" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/mp3U9/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p><a href="https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t">In almost one-third of U.S. states,</a> nonwhite children outnumber all white children under 18 in 14 states – including Nevada, Hawaii, Georgia and Maryland – plus the District of Columbia.</p>
<p>Nonwhite children currently outnumber white children ages 0 to 4 in these 15 states and in Louisiana. In the next few years, the same will be true in North Carolina, Illinois and Virginia, followed a little later by Connecticut and Oklahoma.</p>
<p><iframe id="TzZbF" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/TzZbF/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>In the coming decades, the percentage of all white children will drop – from 49.8% in 2020 to 36.4% in 2060. </p>
<h2>A growing trend</h2>
<p>Why will white children become the numerical minority? </p>
<p>We draw on the insights of <a href="https://findscholars.unh.edu/display/publication150904">demographer Kenneth Johnson and his colleagues</a> to understand this trend.</p>
<p>First, the declining number of white children reflects the significant aging of the white population. </p>
<p>Whites in the U.S. have a median age of 43.6, much higher than those of all other racial or ethnic groups. Latinos, in particular, are much younger, with a median age of 29.5. </p>
<p>Slightly more than one-fifth of whites are age 65 and older, while elders account for only about one-tenth of nonwhites. Indeed, today in the U.S. there are more white elders than white children. </p>
<p>The older age of whites is mainly due to <a href="https://apl.wisc.edu/briefs_resources/pdf/natural-decrease-18.pdf">fewer white births than white deaths</a>.
Between July 2017 and July 2018, there were <a href="https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t">0.88 white births in the U.S. for every 1 white death</a>. In the case of Latinos, the ratio was 5 births for every 1 death.</p>
<p>Whites also have lower fertility rates than most other racial and ethnic groups. </p>
<p><iframe id="3es7i" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3es7i/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Even if white women increased their fertility levels, their actual numbers of births would not go up that much, because there is a shrinking number of white women of childbearing age. </p>
<p>Only 41% of white women aged 15 and older are in the childbearing ages of 15 to 44, when most births occur, compared to 57% of nonwhite women. </p>
<h2>What the future holds</h2>
<p>In the coming decades, people of color will have an increasing presence in all U.S. institutions, in higher education, the workforce and the electorate. </p>
<p>Americans are already seeing the consequences of these <a href="https://usa.ipums.org/usa/">demographic shifts in higher education</a>. Between 2009 and 2017, the number of white undergraduate students in the U.S. dropped by 1.7 million, while the number of Latino undergraduates rose by 1.1 million. </p>
<p>In addition, <a href="https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2015/article/labor-force-projections-to-2024.htm">U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projections</a> show that, between 2014 and 2024, the white share of the civilian labor force is declining, while the share of nonwhites is estimated to rise.</p>
<p>Furthermore, people of color will increasingly be part of the voter rolls and slates of political office seekers in the coming decades. </p>
<p>Despite these expected changes, one thing is certain. The white population is not going to disappear. The U.S. Census Bureau projects that <a href="https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_17_5YR_B03002&prodType=table%20in%202060">whites will still be the largest racial or ethnic group</a>, accounting for 44.3% of the nation’s population in 2060 and outnumbering Latinos, the second largest group, by 67.9 million.</p>
<p>The reality is that whites will not dominate demographically as they have throughout most of U.S. history, when they accounted for as much as 90% of the country’s population. Roughly speaking, the share of the U.S. white population in 2060 will be the same as it is now in Las Vegas, about 44%.</p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128499/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>By 2050, the majority of Americans will not be white. That future is already on its way here – just look at the demographics of kids ages 10 and under.Rogelio Sáenz, Professor of Demography, The University of Texas at San AntonioDudley L. Poston Jr., Professor of Sociology, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1274142019-12-20T13:58:58Z2019-12-20T13:58:58ZExploring the data on Hollywood’s gender pay gap<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306877/original/file-20191213-85381-7xusiw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Michelle Williams arrives at the world premiere of 'All the Money in the World.'</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/World-Premiere-of-All-the-Money-in-the-World-/bd2aed44d7634d1a80890dab2e03eb02/4/0">Photo by Jordan Strauss/Invision/AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Audiences were furious to hear that <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/life/people/2018/01/09/exclusive-wahlberg-paid-1-5-m-all-money-reshoot-williams-got-less-than-1-000/1018351001/">Michelle Williams was paid eight times less than Mark Wahlberg</a> for her starring role in “All the Money in the World” and 1,500 times less for reshoots. He was paid US$1.5 million for reshoots, while she received less than $1,000.</p>
<p>But has the gender pay gap for Hollywood actors been blown out of proportion from a few cases cherry-picked by the media? If there is a difference in salary between men and women, can it be explained not by sex discrimination but rather by variation in actor quality and film characteristics? </p>
<p><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/project/How-Much-of-Hollywoods-Gender-Pay-Gap-is-Discrimination-Estimating-the-Role-of-Actor-and-Film-Characteristics">My analysis</a> with my former student Taylor Milana of over 400 actors in more than 100 movies from 1984 to 2018 indicates the answer to both of these questions is no. </p>
<p>Discrimination does play a role in Hollywood salaries.</p>
<h2>Pay inequality</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/03/22/gender-pay-gap-facts/">A recent national comparison of average salaries</a> indicates that women in the U.S. earn approximately 80% as much as men. </p>
<p>In the film industry, the gender pay gap appears to be significantly larger. In 2017, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/natalierobehmed/2017/08/22/full-list-the-worlds-highest-paid-actors-and-actresses-2017/#3f24ec673751">a comparison of the highest-paid male and female actors</a> revealed an average salary of $57.4 million for men and $21.8 million for women. That means that top female actors earn 38% as much as the top male actors. </p>
<p>That’s a striking difference that reveals a need for careful, empirical investigation.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1056492613519861">Existing studies</a> of <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/natalierobehmed/2017/08/22/full-list-the-worlds-highest-paid-actors-and-actresses-2017/#51a193573751">actors’ salaries</a> have a few important shortcomings. Salary comparisons have usually been derived from small samples, so we can’t be certain the gap would exist with a more representative sample.</p>
<p>What’s more, a comparison of average salaries doesn’t account for differences in quality that could justify earnings differences. For example, an actor who has been honored with an Oscar or with a track record of attracting large theater audiences would understandably earn more than an actor without these accomplishments.</p>
<p>Earnings disparities between groups are not necessarily the result of discrimination, even if the individuals are working in the same occupation. In some cases, differences in earnings can be explained on the basis of merit; in other words, factors like differences in worker skill and work intensity can influence differences in wages.</p>
<p>Studies disagree on exactly how much of a role discrimination plays in the gender wage gap nationally. When data is drawn from workers in many occupations and industries, <a href="http://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20160995">discrimination appears to play a significant role</a> in the pay gap. </p>
<p>However, <a href="http://doi.org/10.2307/145880">in studies</a> <a href="http://doi.org/10.1177/001979390105500101">that focus</a> <a href="http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-232X.2008.00538.x">on specific occupations and industries</a>, such as corporate executives, where workers are likely to be engaged in more similar tasks, the role of discrimination appears negligible.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307489/original/file-20191217-58302-1xt1hv3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307489/original/file-20191217-58302-1xt1hv3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307489/original/file-20191217-58302-1xt1hv3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307489/original/file-20191217-58302-1xt1hv3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307489/original/file-20191217-58302-1xt1hv3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307489/original/file-20191217-58302-1xt1hv3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307489/original/file-20191217-58302-1xt1hv3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307489/original/file-20191217-58302-1xt1hv3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Gillian Anderson, right, says she was initially offered half as much as David Duchovny, left, for the ‘X-Files’ revival.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/inVision-Richard-Shotwell-Invision-AP-a-ENT-CA-/836ab53982c146aba9017443c17416f6/53/0">Richard Shotwell/Invision/AP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Our investigation</h2>
<p>We believe our study uses the largest sample of actor salaries that has been compiled to analyze earnings in the film industry. </p>
<p>We started with <a href="http://www.IMDb.com">the Internet Movie Database</a>, where we gleaned all reported salaries from 1984 to 2018, as well as the actor’s gender and race, along with movie budget and genre information.</p>
<p>We found that the salary gap is about 45%. In our sample, the average salary is $6.6 million for women and $11.9 million for men. </p>
<p>This wage gap is considerably larger than the national average and larger than has been previously estimated for actors using anecdotal evidence from the highest-profile actors. </p>
<p><iframe id="GlYPP" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/GlYPP/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Nevertheless, the unadjusted salary gap doesn’t account for differences in actor quality and film characteristics. So, these figures can lead to misleading implications about discrimination.</p>
<p>We also collected data from Box Office Mojo, a box office revenue tracker; The New York Times; and the Academy Awards Database. Our dataset includes numerous actor and movie characteristics, including the movie’s budget and genre; New York Times rank of importance in a film; the number of Academy Awards earned; and the box office revenue generated in all movies that included the specific actor.</p>
<p>After controlling for these differences, we discovered that, at most, 29% of the $5.3 million salary difference between men and women can be explained by actor and film characteristics.</p>
<p>That is, about $3.8 million, or 71%, of the difference is unexplained by the characteristics we looked at – a sign of potential discrimination. </p>
<p>In comparison to other studies that focused on specific occupations and industries, this is really high.</p>
<h2>Discrimination debate</h2>
<p><a href="https://wol.iza.org/articles/identifying-and-measuring-economic-discrimination/long">Economists disagree</a> over how accurately one can estimate the rate of discrimination. </p>
<p>Some argue that certain characteristics are not observable or measured, and so the effect of discrimination will look bigger than it actually is. Others note that individuals may willingly make choices that have negative effects on their salary. For example, it’s been argued that women are more likely to sacrifice salary for a job that has flexible hours, offers child care or better health benefits. Is it possible that in our setting women are more likely than men to choose roles in romance or comedy over high-budget action films? </p>
<p>The other side of the coin is that the unexplained component of the gap might understate discrimination. Do women sometimes choose careers because they don’t think they’ll be hired in the areas that they are truly passionate about, or because they have been pressured to believe that they can’t be successful in some fields? Are women choosing smaller-budget films, or are they being pushed in that particular direction? </p>
<p>If preexisting discrimination influences the “choices” researchers observe, then the explained difference is overstated and discrimination is understated.</p>
<p>I think both sides of the debate have merit. But, in the end, the evidence is clear to us: Discrimination plays a big role in Hollywood.</p>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127414/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roberto Pedace does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new analysis of over 400 actors shows that gender discrimination plays a major role in Hollywood salaries.Roberto Pedace, Professor of Economics, Scripps CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1266472019-12-19T20:24:05Z2019-12-19T20:24:05ZBattle at the border: 5 essential reads on asylum, citizenship and the right to live in the US<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302717/original/file-20191120-502-m7o4ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A U.S. Customs and Border Protection officer checks migrants' documents.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Mexico-US-Immigration-Temporary-Status/ff82250620ef40889e99832a04ec6332/25/0">AP Photo/Fernando Llano</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: As we come to the end of the year, Conversation editors take a look back at the stories that – for them – exemplified 2019.</em></p>
<p>Who gets to live in the United States?</p>
<p>It’s a contentious question, particularly as the Trump administration works to limit entry to the U.S., through policies like <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-trumps-travel-ban-really-looks-like-almost-two-years-in-123564">2017’s travel ban</a>, as well as increased use of <a href="https://theconversation.com/immigrant-detention-in-the-us-4-essential-reads-103190">detention centers</a>. Meanwhile, others continue their fight to <a href="https://theconversation.com/americans-support-for-immigration-is-at-record-highs-but-the-government-is-out-of-sync-with-their-views-121215">keep the borders open</a>.</p>
<p>As I look back at our stories from 2019, I’m struck by how many times this question recurred – in cases involving asylees, migrants and aspiring citizens.</p>
<h2>1. Left waiting</h2>
<p>In the past, when asylum seekers showed up at the border, they were processed by U.S. Customs and Border Protection officials.</p>
<p>This changed in 2018 with the introduction of “metering.” Seekers are now told that the border crossings are full and that they have to wait in Mexico until space becomes available. </p>
<p>That’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/thousands-of-asylum-seekers-left-waiting-at-the-us-mexico-border-118367">left thousands of people waiting in cities along the border</a>. In May, the number waiting was up to 19,000, more than triple what it was the previous November. </p>
<p>“The increase in the number of asylum seekers and longer wait times has put a stress on shelters in Mexican border cities, which all reported to us that they were over capacity,” wrote University of California San Diego’s <a href="https://www.sylff.org/fellows/savitri-arvey/">Savitri Arvey</a> and University of Texas at Austin’s <a href="https://lbj.utexas.edu/leutert-stephanie">Steph Leutert</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="vh0h5" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vh0h5/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>2. Changing migration</h2>
<p>Today, many of the people seeking asylum at the southern border come from Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador.</p>
<p>And “there are more overall migrants coming to the U.S. than a decade ago,” writes <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=OBIxsGQAAAAJ&hl=en">Rogelio Sáenz</a>, a demographer at The University of Texas at San Antonio.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, <a href="https://theconversation.com/far-fewer-mexican-immigrants-are-coming-to-the-us-and-those-who-do-are-more-educated-122524">the number of migrants from Mexico</a> has plummeted – down 53% between 2003 and 2017. </p>
<p>Possible explanations for this decrease include the increasing militarization of the southern border, an increase in detentions and deportations, and Mexico’s improved economy.</p>
<p><iframe id="J3HZy" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/J3HZy/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>3. Roots abroad</h2>
<p>As the number of Mexican migrants decreases, <a href="https://theconversation.com/half-a-million-american-minors-now-live-in-mexico-119057">the number of American children living in Mexico</a> has shot up. </p>
<p>In 2015, nearly half a million minors born in the U.S. lived south of the border, more than double was it was in 2000. Many of these citizens have Mexican-born parents.</p>
<p>“We do not know what the future holds for this large group of young U.S. citizens with deep roots in both countries,” write <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=YAAcBioAAAAJ">Claudia Masferrer</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=EUf3884AAAAJ&hl=en">Erin R. Hamilton</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=oPbXnmMAAAAJ&hl=en">Nicole Denier</a>, researchers who have studied census records on this group. </p>
<p>Like Dreamers, “U.S. citizen minors in Mexico also live in mixed-status families, but in some ways the challenges they face are distinct: They have the possibility for legal integration, but still face barriers to social and economic integration in Mexico.”</p>
<h2>4. Left out</h2>
<p>The question of who gets to be a citizen and live in the U.S. has long been complicated.</p>
<p>“Historically, not all children born of U.S. citizen service members stationed overseas have been granted U.S. citizenship nor legal recognition,” writes <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=m5h-3acAAAAJ">Victoria Reyes</a>, a sociologist at University of California, Riverside.</p>
<p>Reyes studies <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-some-children-born-abroad-us-citizenship-has-never-been-a-guarantee-122704">children born to Filipina mothers and U.S. servicemen</a>, a group that, for years, has waged an unsuccessful battle for recognition. An estimated 25,000 to 50,000 Amerasians, who have not been granted citizenship, remain in the Philippines today.</p>
<h2>5. The last mile</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, applications for citizenship are backlogged, with <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-citizenship-applications-are-backlogged-prolonging-the-wait-for-civil-and-voting-rights-123747">more than 700,000 applications</a> piled up as of Sept. 17.</p>
<p>Wait times for processing those applications have doubled over the last few years, with the average applicant waiting to hear back for 10 to 18 months. </p>
<p>That means they have to put many aspects of their lives on hold.</p>
<p>“Keeping people who are eligible for citizenship from participation in choosing their president and voting on high-stakes policies is a problem,” writes <a href="https://lawweb.colorado.edu/profiles/profile.jsp?id=454">Ming Hsu Chen</a> of the University of Colorado Boulder. “In addition, immigrants’ eligibility for employment and public benefits hinges on citizenship.”</p>
<p><iframe id="msGIg" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/msGIg/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126647/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Many want to come to the United States, as an asylee, a migrant or a citizen. But those journeys have become more complicated.Aviva Rutkin, Data EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1276892019-12-16T13:42:27Z2019-12-16T13:42:27Z6 charts that illustrate the surprising financial strength of American houses of worship<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305908/original/file-20191209-90562-souk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Organized religion is faring better than it may appear.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/dallas-tx-usa-may-19-2008-1162288429?src=869b1034-f1a7-47bc-a3d7-39dd61199fb2-1-81">James Kirkikis/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Religion accounts for the largest share of the approximately <a href="https://theconversation.com/american-giving-lost-some-ground-in-2018-amid-tax-changes-and-stock-market-losses-118892">US$425 billion</a> Americans give away every year.</p>
<p>Even so, the charitable dollars channeled to churches and other houses of worship have slowly declined as a percentage of overall giving for decades. In 2018, the actual total both fell by 3.9% when adjusted for inflation and dipped for the first time <a href="https://www.ecfa.org/Content/Americans-Donated-125-Billion-to-Religion-in-2018-29-of-All-Charitable-Giving">below 30% of total giving</a>.</p>
<p>I study trends in religious giving and their <a href="https://philanthropy.iupui.edu/institutes/lake-institute/index.html">implications</a>. To me, what stands out today is how well congregations are generally faring even as the share of Americans who belong to a house of worship declines.</p>
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<h2>Empty pews</h2>
<p>The bulk of religious giving goes directly to the over <a href="http://www.usreligioncensus.org/">350,000 congregations nationwide</a> dotting almost every local community.
On top of churches and other houses of worship, religious giving covers donations made directly to religious denominations, missionary societies and religious media.</p>
<p>An important trend is that the share of <a href="https://www.pewforum.org/2019/10/17/in-u-s-decline-of-christianity-continues-at-rapid-pace/">Americans who claim no religious affiliation</a> is growing, having risen to 26% from 16% in 2007.</p>
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<p>Only half of all Americans now claim to <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/248837/church-membership-down-sharply-past-two-decades.aspx">belong to a specific congregation, a historic low</a>. And only about 45% of Americans say they go to church at least once a month, down from 54% in 2007.</p>
<p>Since religious affiliation and attendance at religious services are two of the leading <a href="https://www.sltrib.com/religion/global/2017/10/27/the-more-people-go-to-church-the-more-they-give-to-church-study-shows/">predictors for both religious and overall charitable giving</a>, I don’t find it surprising to see religious giving lose some ground.</p>
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<h2>Other faith-based giving</h2>
<p>Money that donors give to clearly religious causes, including Catholic schools, Jewish community centers or Muslim relief agencies, isn’t classified as religious giving. Rather, it gets lumped with organizations focused on particular shared causes such as education or social services.</p>
<p>Major nonprofits with religious missions, such as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-salvation-armys-red-kettles-became-a-christmas-tradition-107604">Salvation Army</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/world-vision-tinkers-with-its-70-year-old-child-sponsorship-model-124383">World Vision</a> and <a href="https://apnews.com/c4d5ec10cc6c40d0a161f0e9fb828e4b">Catholic Charities</a>, are not, in terms of the charitable statistics collected, defined as religious.</p>
<p>Even so, by my count, six of the nation’s 25 <a href="https://www.philanthropy.com/interactives/americas-favorite-charities-data?cid=RCPACKAGE#id=table_cash">largest privately supported charities</a> are clearly faith-based organizations. </p>
<p>Based on data collected in 2012, the most recent available, donors label <a href="https://www.issuelab.org/resource/connected-to-give-faith-communities.html">three-quarters of what they give to charity</a> as supporting religious institutions of some kind.</p>
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<h2>Relative stability</h2>
<p>U.S. congregations are nonprofits. But unlike most other nonprofits, they generally don’t need to file paperwork with the <a href="https://www.irs.gov/charities-non-profits/annual-exempt-organization-return-who-must-file">Internal Revenue Service</a> to report the amount of funding they receive and spend.</p>
<p>That makes it hard to find detailed and accurate data on congregational finances, so my colleagues and I conducted a <a href="http://www.nscep.org/">study to get a clearer picture</a>.</p>
<p>We found that religious affiliation and attendance trends do not always simply predict similar trends within congregations. About as many houses of worship are <a href="https://www.nscep.org/">gaining congregants</a> as losing them, with 39% growing between 2014 and 2017 and another 38% seeing their congregations shrink. The rest were stable.</p>
<p>The picture is similar when it comes to the amount of revenue congregations received. More congregations are bringing in more money than are bringing in less. </p>
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<h2>Catholics face more trouble</h2>
<p>To get a clear picture, it’s important to recognize that religious participation and giving trends are not the same across the great diversity of U.S. congregations. These patterns differ overall by religious tradition and dominant race or ethnicity, along with the size, age and location of congregations.</p>
<p>For example, 56% of the country’s Catholic parishes received less revenue in 2017 than in 2014. But 59% of black Protestant congregations received more. </p>
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<p><em>Lake Institute on Faith & Giving postdoctoral researcher <a href="https://philanthropy.iupui.edu/people-directory/munn-chris.html">Christopher Walter Munn</a> contributed to this article.</em></p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127689/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lake Institute received a grant from the Lilly Endowment, Inc. (David King serving as Co-PI) to conduct the National Study of Congregations' Economic Practices. </span></em></p>Fewer people belong to a congregation or identify as Protestant or Catholic. And yet, most congregations say their membership is growing or stable.David King, Assistant Professor of Philanthropic Studies, IUPUILicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1274832019-12-04T13:27:54Z2019-12-04T13:27:54ZWhy Americans are staying put, instead of moving to a new city or state<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303214/original/file-20191122-74557-92lqgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A less common sight in the U.S. today.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/children-helping-unload-boxes-van-on-794983378?src=698b3e02-fc92-4fa0-b3c0-e653de87f303-1-23">Monkey Business Images/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The story of America is one of moving. </p>
<p>A total of <a href="https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk#">13.6% of Americans today were born in another country</a>, and most of us are descended from immigrants. This story of migration also includes moving within the country. Over the last 200 years, Americans have settled the frontier, moved away from cities toward suburbs and migrated away from cities in the Northeast toward the South and West.</p>
<p>This narrative that Americans are constantly moving within the country is no longer true. </p>
<p>Over the last 35 years, <a href="https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/demo/tables/geographic-mobility/time-series/historic/tab-a-1.xls">the number of Americans who have moved</a> – within their county, state or out of state – has steadily declined to nearly half of their previous levels. </p>
<p>Between March 2018 and 2019, only 1.5% of Americans moved from one state to another, and 5.9% moved from one home to another while remaining in the same county. </p>
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<h2>Why are Americans more rooted?</h2>
<p><a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/psp.1844">The decision to move is a complex one</a>. People are often searching for better opportunities but must also take into account factors like family characteristics, lifestyle and community.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=sn4awyAAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">I have studied American migration for over 20 years</a>, and I see no evidence linking the migration decline to changes in the way people make those decisions. Rather, I see three broad changes that have changed the outcome of those decisions.</p>
<p>First, <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45090.pdf">real incomes have remained flat for over the last 35 years</a>. Americans have been able to improve their standard of living only by both <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/200720/aftershockinequality-for-all--movie-tie-in-edition-by-robert-reich/">working more and borrowing more</a>. That includes an increase in the number of women working, leading to the growth of dual-income households.</p>
<p>The increase in both family and personal debt both <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00330124.2012.724343">makes selling a house more difficult and reduces financial resources available for a move</a>. Meanwhile, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00330124.2012.724343">growth of dual-income households restricts moves</a>, because any long-distance move would require both partners to find a suitable job in a new destination.</p>
<p>Second, <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/e/9781315589282/chapters/10.4324/9781315589282-5">the baby boomer generation</a> has squeezed younger generations out of housing and job opportunities. </p>
<p>Finally, Americans are less likely to move due to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00330124.2012.724343">the widespread adoption of advanced information and communications technologies</a>, such as the internet and smartphones. </p>
<p>My colleague and I investigated the role of these technologies in both <a href="https://www.questia.com/library/journal/1P4-2033290907/migration-and-the-internet">the U.S.</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.2111">Northern Ireland</a>. In these studies, we compared people who accessed and used the internet at home, in various ways, to people who did not, and found that internet access was strongly associated with decreased mobility. </p>
<p>We conclude that internet use, and likely all forms of advanced information and communication technologies, allow people to remain in a place, yet access a growing array of remote <a href="https://www.census.gov/prod/2012pubs/p70-132.pdf">employment</a> and <a href="https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED541571">educational opportunities</a>. Moving is just not as necessary as it once was. </p>
<p>What’s more, advanced information and communications technologies <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001671851300033X">improves the quality of information available about possible places to move</a>. We believe this makes decisions about whether and where to move more efficient and reduces the chances that people will move to a place that they don’t like. </p>
<h2>Rootedness is the new normal</h2>
<p>The currently low levels of geographic mobility are likely to be permanent. </p>
<p>An important principle of migration is that it is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.2286">self-reinforcing</a> – having moved once enhances the chances of moving again. Moving is expensive and stressful, especially for people who have not migrated before. But having moved once, additional moves become less stressful, new opportunities become available and additional moves become more efficient and less costly. </p>
<p>This self-reinforcing process works in the other direction as well. Having never moved or having moved very little reduces the chances of moving or moving again; migration is viewed as risky, expensive and disruptive. Plus, the longer a person stays in a location, the more attached they grow to their home and job and community.</p>
<p>Since the current U.S. population is more rooted than ever, I think it is likely that the country will continue to have lower migration rates into the future. Young adults who have been raised during the period of declining migration rates of the last 35 years are now less likely to migrate as a consequence. They may then pass this legacy on to their own children.</p>
<h2>The impacts of a more rooted society</h2>
<p>I believe that the migration decline and associated increase in rootedness will have dramatic effects on American society. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/41446817.pdf?seq=1">Rootedness has many positive outcomes</a>, such as greater attachment to place and more meaningful social and community connections. These connections to place may then <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/114/36/E7432.short">serve to provide social and economic support during periods of economic uncertainty</a>.</p>
<p>Second, I suspect that the decline in migration will present a challenge to large corporations and regional economic development agencies, for example, which rely upon migration to attract and retain talent.</p>
<p>Finally, the government’s approaches to resolving regional economic disparities will have to change. Federal and state governments traditionally have not intervened much in regional labor and housing markets, under the presumption that high levels of migration serve to reallocate people from areas with few opportunities and toward areas with many opportunities. </p>
<p>The decline in migration indicates to me that federal and state policy must shift more toward <a href="https://research.upjohn.org/up_press/6/">“place-based” policies</a>, emphasizing training and education, along with developing industries tailored to local skills and resources, similar to what is more common in Europe. </p>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127483/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Cooke does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Over the last 35 years, the number of Americans who have moved has steadily declined to nearly half of their previous levels.Thomas Cooke, Professor of Geography, University of ConnecticutLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1264252019-11-18T14:00:17Z2019-11-18T14:00:17ZHow rich people like Gordon Sondland buy their way to being US ambassadors – 4 questions answered<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301575/original/file-20191113-77300-ug6ngf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Some positions attract more political appointments -- like those in Western Europe.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/flags-102617819?src=768f3819-7eb9-4bd8-88da-94223623d10c-1-16">Markus Pfaff/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In every other developed democratic country, the role of ambassador, with only very rare exceptions, is given to career diplomats who have spent decades learning the art of international relations. </p>
<p>In the U.S., however, many ambassadors are untrained in diplomacy, and have simply bought their way into a prestigious post.</p>
<p>The involvement of the American ambassador to the European Union, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/disruptive-diplomat-gordon-sondland-a-key-figure-in-trump-impeachment-furor-long-coveted-ambassadorship/2019/10/14/c5afb950-ec3f-11e9-9c6d-436a0df4f31d_story.html">Gordon Sondland</a>, in the Ukraine scandal has prompted interest in the media and Congress in the role of non-career ambassadors like him. </p>
<p>On Oct. 30, U.S. Rep. Ami Bera, a Democrat from California, <a href="https://bera.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/rep-bera-releases-legislation-to-strengthen-state-department-diplomacy">introduced legislation</a> that would require at least 70% of a president’s ambassadorial appointments to come from the ranks of career Foreign Service officers and civil servants.</p>
<p>Career appointees have to spend decades working their way up through the ranks in government before being nominated, <a href="https://history.state.gov/departmenthistory/people/jett-dennis-coleman">as I did</a> before becoming ambassador in Mozambique and later in Peru.</p>
<p>Bera’s bill likely does not have the support in Congress to ever be enacted. More importantly, it does not address what I think is the real problem with political appointee ambassadors. That is the selling of the title in exchange for campaign contributions to people who are clearly unqualified for the job. </p>
<p>While this is a time-honored practice used by presidents of both parties, it has arguably gotten worse under the Trump administration.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301846/original/file-20191114-26229-1g1rqdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301846/original/file-20191114-26229-1g1rqdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301846/original/file-20191114-26229-1g1rqdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301846/original/file-20191114-26229-1g1rqdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301846/original/file-20191114-26229-1g1rqdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301846/original/file-20191114-26229-1g1rqdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301846/original/file-20191114-26229-1g1rqdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301846/original/file-20191114-26229-1g1rqdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Gordon Sondland, left, walks to a secure area of the Capitol to testify as part of the House impeachment inquiry.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Trump-Impeachment/64cc5a35272c479da42bc760876722d0/6/0">AP Photo/Patrick Semansky</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. Who picks ambassadors?</h2>
<p><a href="https://constitution.findlaw.com/article2.html">The Constitution says</a> nothing about the qualifications required to be an ambassador. All it says is the president can appoint them with the advice and consent of the Senate. </p>
<p>In other words, a president can appoint whoever he wants for whatever reason he wants. </p>
<p>The Senate <a href="https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/common/briefing/Nominations.htm">can refuse to confirm a nominee</a>, but that has not happened in over a century. Instead, occasionally the Senate will refuse to vote on the nomination and the nominee languishes until either the Senate does decide to act or the White House withdraws the nomination. </p>
<p>That kind of delay is not uncommon, but it is almost always due to policy disputes between the two branches, rather than anything to do with the qualifications of the person being proposed for an ambassadorship. </p>
<h2>2. Who’s qualified?</h2>
<p>Deciding what qualifies someone to be the personal representative of the president abroad is therefore almost entirely up to the president. </p>
<p>During the Nixon administration, the president’s personal lawyer asked the wife of a wealthy department store owner for a US$250,000 campaign contribution <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1974/07/27/archives/kalmbach-told-panel-of-a-talk-with-dr-farkas-said-she-viewed-250000.html">in exchange for the ambassadorship to Costa Rica</a>. She famously replied, “That’s a lot to pay for Costa Rica, isn’t it?” She eventually <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1996/10/22/nyregion/ruth-farkas-89-nixon-s-ambassador-to-luxembourg-dies.html">went to Luxembourg as ambassador</a>, and shortly thereafter wrote checks to the Nixon re-election campaign that added up to $300,000. </p>
<p>That overt quid pro quo prompted the passage of <a href="https://legcounsel.house.gov/Comps/Foreign%20Service%20Act%20Of%201980.pdf">the Foreign Service Act of 1980</a>. </p>
<p>The act states that those appointed to be an ambassador “should possess clearly demonstrated competence to perform the duties of a chief of mission,” including knowledge of the language, history and culture of the country.</p>
<p>It added that, given those requirements, such positions “should normally be accorded to career members of the Foreign Service, though circumstance will warrant appointments from time to time of qualified individuals who are not.” </p>
<p>It also stressed that “contributions to political campaigns should not be a factor in the appointment of an individual as a chief of mission.”</p>
<h2>3. How many ambassadors are career diplomats?</h2>
<p>Despite its intended purpose, the act did little to change how business was done in Washington.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.afsa.org/history-appointments-post">The percentage of political appointee ambassadors</a> only went down very slightly, hovering around 30% after the act was passed. </p>
<p>The one exception was the Reagan administration, which got the figure up to 38% by sending Reaganites to places like Rwanda and Malawi, where normally only career ambassadors would dare to tread. </p>
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<p>The question of percentages of political versus career ambassadors is one that sometimes attracts media interest, mainly because it is always higher than the usual 30% in the early part of any presidential term. That percentage cannot really be calculated in a meaningful way until the end of a term, because most political appointments are made in its first years. </p>
<p>For example, the percentage of political appointee ambassadors under Trump currently stands at about 45%. However, Trump has left 10 posts vacant that have always been filled by career ambassadors. </p>
<p>Another seven posts that would be career slots are in countries where relations have been downgraded or suspended, such as Venezuela and Bolivia. Most of those embassies will likely be filled by career people at some point. </p>
<p>In terms of posts that are normally held by career diplomats, there are only six – Croatia, Chile, Poland, Thailand, United Arab Emirates and Fiji – that currently have political appointee ambassadors. </p>
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<h2>4. How much does an ambassadorship cost?</h2>
<p>While some political appointees are political allies and friends of the president, for many postings – particularly in Western Europe and the Caribbean, where <a href="https://www.palgrave.com/us/book/9781137395665">80% of the ambassadors are political appointees</a> – who gets the job depends on money. </p>
<p>Even after the Foreign Service Act was passed, political contributions continued to play such a role that it was possible to estimate how much more London would cost than Lisbon. The larger a country’s economy and the number of tourists that visit it, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gove.12254">the higher the price</a> of becoming ambassador. </p>
<p>And for those who want to add a fancy title to their resume and have the money, a six or even seven figure price is not too high.</p>
<p>For his first inauguration, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/06/us/politics/06donors.html">President Obama put a limit</a> of $50,000 on contributions. President George W. Bush capped his at $250,000. </p>
<p>For Trump, the sky was the limit and the floodgates were opened for those who wanted to buy access or influence. <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2017/04/250-donors-shelled-out-100k-or-more-for-trumps-inauguration/">More than 250 donors gave $100,000 or more</a>, which amounted to over 90% of the $107 million that was collected for the inaugural festivities. </p>
<p>Though Sondland had not backed Trump in his bid to be the Republican candidate, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/10/04/gordon-sondland-ukraine-texts-ambassador/">he contributed</a> <a href="https://www.oregonlive.com/news/erry-2018/07/cdbfd3400b3583/portland-hotelier-who-gave-1-m.html">$1 million</a> after the election to Trump’s inaugural committee.</p>
<p>Under Trump, it’s not just the posts in rich countries and tropical paradises that are for sale. United Nations ambassador Kelly Craft and her husband <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/31/us/kelly-craft-senate-confirmation.html">contributed over $2 million</a> to Trump’s election campaign and inauguration. She also <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/24/trump-united-nations-gop-donations-1286440">gave generously</a> to over half the Repubican senators on the Foreign Relations Committee that had to approve her nomination.</p>
<p>So while the percentage of political-appointee ambassadors may not increase all that much by the end of Trump’s current term, the price for buying one certainly has. </p>
<p>I think this practice of selling ambassadorships is unlikely to change, despite the image it creates abroad when a person with no knowledge of a country is put in charge of the American embassy there.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/28/politics/elizabeth-warren-new-plan/index.html">Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren has said</a> she will appoint no big donors as ambassadors - period. But when I have contacted the campaigns of every other person seeking the nomination to ask if they would make a similar pledge, I have been met with silence. That is because in Washington money does the talking.</p>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126425/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dennis Jett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The United States is the only developed, democratic country that has a political culture of selling ambassadorships.Dennis Jett, Professor of International Affairs, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1266432019-11-12T16:13:02Z2019-11-12T16:13:02ZWhat Ukrainians think about Trump and his ‘quid pro quo’ in 3 charts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300922/original/file-20191108-194633-yoscq1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ukrainians don't agree on how their president should have handled Trump's request.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/maidan-nezalezhnosti-independence-square-kiev-ukraine-691769458?src=c41ec0d8-a0d1-42f9-add6-8e075912ac09-1-0">Andreas Wolochow/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As Americans turn their attention to the first public hearings in the House impeachment investigation, there is another country that has been affected by the scandal that’s fueling the investigation: Ukraine. </p>
<p>What do the Ukrainian people think of the impeachment controversy?</p>
<p>The congressional investigation <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/07/house-republicans-want-whistleblower-testify-public-impeachment-hearings-067292">centers on Trump’s attempts to pressure Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy</a> into opening a corruption investigation into presidential candidate Joe Biden.</p>
<p>Trump allegedly threatened to withhold US$400 million in U.S. foreign military aid aimed at countering Russian aggression. The <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-casualties/ukraine-calls-for-more-peace-talks-after-four-die-in-eastern-donbass-idUSKCN1UW15D">ongoing military conflict</a> with Russian-backed separatists in the Donbas region of Ukraine has claimed more than 13,000 lives to date.</p>
<p>Reportedly, Zelenskiy was prepared to bow to this pressure, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/07/world/europe/ukraine-trump-zelensky.html">until luck spared him making such a decision</a>. </p>
<p>What decision do Ukrainians think their president should have made when faced with Trump’s apparent “quid pro quo?” Do they believe the Trump administration supports Ukraine? </p>
<p>As part of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/edw020">our</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1163/1871191X-11411019">ongoing</a> research on <a href="http://www.eurasianprogram.org/">Eurasian security and governance</a> at the <a href="https://mershoncenter.osu.edu/">Ohio State University Mershon Center for International Security Studies</a>, we posed these questions to 2,000 Ukrainians.</p>
<p>Our results show how Trump’s purported attempt to co-opt Ukraine’s precarious position with Russia worsens divides inside Ukraine and weakens U.S. influence.</p>
<h2>Dividing Ukraine</h2>
<p>Between Oct. 4 and 16, we conducted face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of Ukrainians over the age of 18 in the government controlled areas of Ukraine. </p>
<p>We asked what their president should do if pressured by the U.S. president to open an investigation into his political opponent in return for needed U.S. aid – similar to what Trump is accused of doing. </p>
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<p>There is no consensus on this question among Ukrainians. </p>
<p>Nearly one-third believe their president should stall an investigation until after the election is over if faced with this scenario. </p>
<p>At the same time, 1 in 5 believe their president should take the deal of an investigation for aid. </p>
<p>Only a small percentage, 12%, believe their president should reject such a quid pro quo and forego the aid. The remainder did not know what the president of Ukraine should do. </p>
<p>Ukraine is a divided society with major regional and ethnic differences, and these divisions are reflected in how these opinions vary by region. </p>
<p>Support for this sort of deal was highest in western Ukraine, where 35% thought the Ukrainian president should agree to open an investigation in return for foreign aid. This strong support reflects western Ukraine’s status <a href="https://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/ukraine-politics/poll-over-half-of-ukrainians-against-granting-official-status-to-russian-language-318212.html?">as bastion of Ukrainian nationalism and anti-Russian fervor</a>.</p>
<p>In contrast, in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/12/09/this-one-map-helps-explain-ukraines-protests/">southern and eastern Ukraine, where there are more Russian speakers and less nationalist sentiment</a>, people felt differently about trading political aid for financial assistance.</p>
<p>Survey respondents in southern Ukraine were the least supportive of agreeing to Trump’s alleged quid pro quo. Support for rejecting it altogether was highest in eastern Ukraine.</p>
<h2>Weaker US influence</h2>
<p>We asked respondents how supportive the Trump administration is of Ukraine, as compared to previous American administrations.</p>
<p>Ukrainians are again divided on this question. </p>
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<p>The plurality of respondents, 32%, believe the Trump administration provides the same amount of support to Ukraine as previous administrations. </p>
<p>But nearly one-quarter of Ukrainians said the Trump administration was more supportive, while 19% view it as less supportive.</p>
<p>Trump himself is also a now a divisive figure in Ukraine. When asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable toward him, 37% of Ukrainians have an unfavorable opinion, 44% have a neutral opinion and 21% have a favorable opinion. </p>
<p>By comparison, 66% of Ukrainians report a favorable opinion of President Zelenskiy.</p>
<p>To us, this suggests that Trump’s alleged quid pro quo hampers the U.S. government’s ability to exert its influence in Ukraine. It further divides Ukraine across regional and ethnic lines and raises doubts among a significant portion of Ukrainians about how much the U.S. will support Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.</p>
<h2>Amplifying false narratives about the US</h2>
<p>Narratives <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/09/trump-ukraine-reaction-media-zelensky.html">depicting the Ukrainian government as a puppet of the United States and its allies</a> are commonly promoted by Russian propaganda outlets throughout Ukraine. </p>
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<p>For example, 30% of Ukrainians believe the U.S. and NATO orchestrated the crisis between Ukraine and Russia in order to take control of Ukraine. </p>
<p>Thirty-four percent also believe the West does not want the conflict in Donbas to end, in order to keep Ukraine weak. </p>
<p>We also showed respondents a fake news story about the U.S. State Department special representative to Ukraine violating Ukrainian election laws by publicly supporting Zelenskiy’s opponent Petro Poroshenko in the last presidential election. More than a quarter believed it was true.</p>
<p>In this information environment, in which a sizable percentage of Ukrainians already believe their government is a puppet of the U.S., we worry that Trump’s alleged attempt to pressure Zelenskiy could further amplify these widespread false narratives among the people of Ukraine.</p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126643/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Trump’s attempt to co-opt Ukraine’s precarious position with Russia worsens existing divides inside Ukraine and weakens US influence abroad.Erik C. Nisbet, Associate Professor of Communication, Political Science and Environmental Policy and Co-Director of the Eurasian Security and Governance Program, The Ohio State UniversityOlga Kamenchuk, Associate Professor of Communication (Clinical) and Co-Director of Eurasian Security and Governance Program, The Ohio State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1253652019-11-04T12:13:05Z2019-11-04T12:13:05ZHomicide is declining around the world – but why?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/297595/original/file-20191017-98666-ar63pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Homicide has gradually declined over three decades.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/crime-violence-conceptpolice-handcuffs-on-fingerprints-1513966670?src=48Gwx4nYgTxmb2Yun1P9vg-1-46">simon jhuan/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Americans are currently living in one of the lowest crime periods ever – and so are many people in the rest of the world.</p>
<p>Following decades of increasing crime during the 1960s, ‘70s and '80s, U.S. homicide rates declined by almost 40% throughout the 1990s, and have remained low since.</p>
<p>Most explanations of this extraordinary decline in violence put forth by politicians and early academic research focus on events and domestic policies exclusive to the United States. However, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/07418825.2012.742127">emerging studies</a> are providing evidence that this crime decline is not unique to the U.S., but rather occurring across most of the world.</p>
<p>A global decline in violence suggests that criminal justice policies of individual countries may have less impact on the decline in homicide than worldwide events or trends.</p>
<p>In our new study, published on Oct. 9, we make the case for another possible explanation: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0222996">The population of countries around the world is getting older</a>.</p>
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<h2>A global homicide decline</h2>
<p>Most of the world has experienced a parallel reduction in homicide over the previous three decades. </p>
<p>In fact, the homicide patterns observed across countries spread throughout the world are strikingly similar over time. Despite having unique cultures, criminal justice policies and systems of governance, countries in North America, Europe, Asia and Oceania have seen homicide reduce by similar magnitudes over similar time periods. </p>
<p>Between 1990 and 2015, in both North America and Western Europe, the number of homicide victims per 100,000 people declined by 46%, while Asia saw a reduction of 38% and Oceania of 22%. </p>
<p>The steepest reductions typically occurred in the safest regions of the world. For example, homicide rates fell further in Asia and Western Europe, which already had the lowest levels of homicide.</p>
<p>There are two major exceptions to the trend: Africa, where quality data are lacking, and Latin America, a region marked by historically higher levels. In fact, since 1990, Latin America has experienced a 9% increase in homicide rates.</p>
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<h2>Possible causes</h2>
<p>Social scientists are not certain of the causes of this overall decline.</p>
<p>Policymakers, scientists and law enforcement officials have proposed several explanations for the dramatic reductions in crime during this period, including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1257/089533004773563485">increased incarceration</a>, <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/full/10.1146/annurev.publhealth.21.1.505">receding drug markets</a>, <a href="https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/jclc88&div=48&id=&page=">innovations in policing</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9125.2007.00096.x">improvements in the economy</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/11/opinion/open-doors-dont-invite-criminals.html">increased immigration</a> and the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1162/00335530151144050">legalization of abortion</a>.</p>
<p>Most of these explanations link the violence reduction to domestic policies of individual countries. </p>
<p>Of course, this type of research is challenging, as many countries do not collect reliable data on key variables. For example, long-term data on gun ownership, drug use, the influence of organized crime and the efficacy of courts and policing institutions are not available for most countries. </p>
<h2>Age and the homicide decline</h2>
<p>We have a global explanation.</p>
<p>Between 1950 and 2019, the world median age has <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/06/17/worlds-population-is-projected-to-nearly-stop-growing-by-the-end-of-the-century/">increased from 24 to 31 years</a>. This <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/29/world/americas/29iht-letter29.html">graying population</a> will pose many new challenges and possibly drag down <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/03/gray-nation-the-very-real-economic-dangers-of-an-aging-america/254937/">economic growth</a>. </p>
<p>Could an aging population be the driving force behind decreasing crime? This has been <a href="https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/crim11&div=7&id=&page=">one of the</a> <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2566965">hypothesized causes</a> since the very early research about the homicide decline.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/227905">Research shows that crime participation</a> peaks during adolescence and early adulthood, then declines as individuals progress through adulthood. It follows then that countries should have more violent crime when a greater proportion of their population are teenagers and young adults. Research also shows that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00335">older societies tend to be more orderly and more peaceful</a>.</p>
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<h2>Our study</h2>
<p>We looked at homicide data from the World Health Organization and United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, as well as the United Nations data on the age composition of countries. </p>
<p>Accounting for features of countries such as percentage of males, economic inequality, economic development and how urban or rural a country is, we found that the percentage of a country’s population that is young – between 15 and 29 years old – has been a key predictor of homicide trends since 1960. </p>
<p>For the safest countries, a one percentage point increase in the percent of people aged 15 to 29 corresponds to an increase of 4.6% in the homicide rate. </p>
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<p>In the United States, rising homicide rates during the 1960s and 1970s paralleled a spike in the young population following the baby boom. An early homicide decline occurred in the 1980s, which follows a trend of a decreasing youth population as baby boomers aged into late adulthood. This early crime decline was interrupted in 1985 by the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1989/02/20/nyregion/after-3-years-crack-plague-in-new-york-only-gets-worse.html">crack epidemic</a>, and the <a href="https://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/jclc/vol86/iss1/2/">corresponding escalation of violence</a>. However, in 1992, as the crack epidemic waned, homicide trends resumed their decline alongside an aging population. </p>
<p>Aside from the United States, several other countries around the world <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0222996">also experienced steep homicide declines</a> since the 1990s in parallel with an aging of their populations, such as Canada, Austria, Japan and Italy.</p>
<p>These countries share few commonalities in terms of their national cultures, domestic policies and approach to criminal justice. Japan, for example, has seen a steep aging of their population and a homicide decline, but with far less forceful criminal justice policies than those in the U.S. </p>
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<p>Our models suggest to us that age plays a large role in this pattern. Age was the only factor we looked at that consistently predicted homicide increases and declines over an extended period of time.</p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125365/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mateus Renno Santos consults to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Testa receives funding from the Bureau of Justice Assistance.</span></em></p>Since 1990, the homicide rate has declined by 20%. Researchers are still figuring out what’s behind the trend: increased incarceration, improvements in the economy or even aging populations.Mateus Renno Santos, Assistant Professor of Criminology, University of South FloridaAlexander Testa, Assistant Professor of Criminology & Criminal Justice, The University of Texas at San AntonioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1259872019-10-30T12:56:26Z2019-10-30T12:56:26ZWill killing Al-Baghdadi give Trump a boost in the polls? Probably, but it won’t last<p>After former Islamic State Group leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed in a U.S military action, speculation began on <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-killing-of-al-baghdadi-is-a-win-trump-needed-but-the-credit-could-be-fleeting/ar-AAJrIGv">whether or not President Donald Trump would get a boost in public opinion surveys</a> as a result.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=3y3BVcEAAAAJ&hl=en">My political science research</a> with my students shows that presidents do enjoy a short-term poll boost after foreign policy raids and capital city captures.</p>
<p>However, that’s often followed by a long-term decline. </p>
<h2>A closer look at the polls</h2>
<p>Supporters of <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/449098.pdf">the diversionary theory of war</a>, known in the media as the <a href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1998-aug-26-mn-16707-story.html">“Wag the Dog” effect</a>, contend that presidents can boost their approval ratings in the polls by fighting a war abroad. </p>
<p>In other words, they benefit from a burst of patriotism during the conflict. </p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/174524.pdf">international relations scholars Bradley Lian and John R. Oneal</a> tested this theory by looking at conflicts from 1950 through 1984 and found scant empirical support for this hypothesis.</p>
<p>My students and I considered 12 cases to determine whether presidents benefit at the polls from conducting raids involving the capture of a leader, seizure of a capital city or an attempt to rescue hostages, and how long that support can be expected to last.</p>
<p>The events we looked at included the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/december/20/newsid_4054000/4054951.stm">surrender of Manuel Noriega</a> in January of 1990; the <a href="https://www.upi.com/Top_News/2018/12/13/On-This-Day-US-troops-capture-Saddam-Hussein/9531544457729/">apprehension of Saddam Hussein</a> in 2003; and the <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8839964/Col-Gaddafi-killed-convoy-bombed-by-drone-flown-by-pilot-in-Las-Vegas.html">killing of Moammar Gaddafi</a> in 2011.</p>
<p>We looked at polls conducted by the <a href="https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx">Gallup Polling Presidential Job Approval Center</a>, calculating an average of three presidential approval polls taken before the foreign policy event, and the mean of the first three polls issued after the case. </p>
<p>We also analyzed polls taken by the end of the year, or six months later if the raid took place near the end of the year, to see how presidents fared long after the event.</p>
<p>Our results show that in 75% of cases, the U.S. president received a boost in the polls shortly after a foreign policy raid or capital capture. </p>
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<p>But the jump is short lived. In 83% of cases, presidential approval declined over the next several months. In seven cases, it fell by more than five percentage points from the initial poll boost.</p>
<p>For example, President Donald Trump insisted that al-Baghdadi’s death was a bigger deal than <a href="https://psmag.com/news/bin-ladens-death-and-previous-terrorist-passings-30828">the raid that killed Osama Bin-Laden</a>. That <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/11/07/turnout-and-organization-were-key-to-obama-victory/1688537/">May 2011 event was widely credited with sealing President Barack Obama’s reelection</a> the following year.</p>
<p>That credit may have been misplaced. Our evidence shows that Obama’s approval ratings had declined to 45% by December of 2011.</p>
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<p>Thus, if history is any guide, I expect that Trump may have higher approval ratings in the coming days but shouldn’t count on better polls over the next several months.</p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125987/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nothing to disclose. This research was completed with the help of students Pete Alford, Thomas Bird, Tia Braxton, Casey Evans, Natalie Glass, Olivia Hanners, Alanna Martin, Wade Ray, Yasmin Roper, Payton Smith, Katie Still, Jason Timms, Kento Uno, Andrew Valbuena, Ben Womack, and Bre Wyrosdick.</span></em></p>After a foreign policy win, presidents usually enjoy a short-term poll boost. But that’s often followed by a long-term decline.John A. Tures, Professor of Political Science, LaGrange CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1235642019-10-28T13:07:27Z2019-10-28T13:07:27ZWhat Trump’s travel ban really looks like, almost two years in<p>Did President Donald Trump’s travel ban – in place now for more than 22 months – become, in practice, a Muslim ban?</p>
<p>The third version of <a href="https://www.courthousenews.com/supreme-court-lifts-block-on-trump-asylum-restrictions/">President Donald Trump’s travel ban</a> went into full effect on Dec. 8, 2017.</p>
<p>The list of countries whose citizens are banned from entering the United States include Muslim-majority countries Iran, Syria, Libya, Yemen and Somalia, as well as North Korea and Venezuela.</p>
<p>Now that time has passed, policymakers, <a href="http://www.cla.csulb.edu/departments/polisci/faculty-staff/">political scientists like myself</a> and all Americans can start to understand the ban’s effects. </p>
<p>Was it actually a Muslim ban, as it was called at the time it was introduced? Or was that just an anti-Trump label? What percentage of people from those banned countries did pass the “enhanced vetting” and get an actual visa to enter the United States? </p>
<p>I looked through the government’s data to find answers.</p>
<h2>Sharp decline</h2>
<p>The U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Consular Affairs regularly provides data on the number of visas issued for all countries. </p>
<p>Based on the data the agency provides for the fiscal year, the number of immigrant visas issued for the country of Iran decreased by 78% between 2017 and 2018. </p>
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<p>However, the fiscal year data for the year 2018 included the last three months of 2017, when the travel ban wasn’t still implemented. I broke the data down by months to understand how travel ban changed the number of visas issued from calendar year to calendar year. This offered a more accurate picture of the travel ban.</p>
<p>This analysis shows that only 537 immigrant visas were issued in 2018 for the 12 months after the travel ban went into effect for individuals born in Iran. Compare that to 6,643 visas issued in the previous year. That is a 92% decrease in number of visas issued.</p>
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<p>Other Muslim countries in the ban were similarly affected. </p>
<p>For instance, Somalia experienced 86% decrease in number of immigrant visas issued during the 12 months after the travel ban went into effect. Yemen’s visas reduced by 83%. </p>
<p>Libya and Syria had the smallest change among the Muslim countries in the ban, decreasing by 80% and 77% respectively. </p>
<h2>Muslim vs. non-Muslim countries</h2>
<p>Many critics of the new travel rules argued that they were effectively a “Muslim ban.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/mar/15/trump-administration-travel-ban-muslim-religion">The Trump administration countered</a> that there are Muslim countries like Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan that are not included in the travel ban, and there are non-Muslim countries like Venezuela and North Korea that are included. </p>
<p>However, U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Consular Affairs data shows that there was a significant decrease in the number of immigrant visas issued to Muslim countries affected by the travel ban. Meanwhile, the number of immigrant visas issued per month to the non-Muslim countries in the ban virtually remained unchanged. </p>
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<p>In fact, there was a 40% increase in the number of visas issued to North Koreans per calendar-year data, relative to the prior year, when the travel ban was blocked by federal courts. </p>
<h2>Country of chargeability</h2>
<p>There are some questions that the government data cannot answer.</p>
<p>For example, rather than providing data on where each visa recipient lives, the U.S. Department of State by report if the Visa Office only offers information on the <a href="https://www.uscis.gov/tools/glossary">country of chargeability</a>, which basically means where the applicant was born.</p>
<p>There were five fiancé visas issued to Iranians in calendar year 2018, compared to 358 fiancé visas issued in 2017. But even that low number does not tell us whether these five visas were given to Iranians that actually lived inside Iran. These visas may have been given to Iranians who had been living in Canada or Europe for many years but were born in Iran. </p>
<p>The actual impact of the Trump travel ban, in other words, could be even bigger than what the data shows. </p>
<h2>Visas and waivers</h2>
<p>Waivers are another important issue that is hard to study.</p>
<p>The vast majority people from the seven restricted countries <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-protecting-nation-foreign-terrorist-entry-united-states/">who applied for a visa</a> after the implementation of the ban were rejected outright. </p>
<p>However, U.S. officials may grant a waiver to someone if there is evidence that the applicant is facing so much undue hardship that they need to be united with their loved ones in the U.S. </p>
<p>This could happen, for example, if a family member in the United States is dying and a person from a restricted nation wants to see them one last time, like <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/18/us/yemen-mom-travel-ban-dying-son.html">the Yemeni mother who got a chance to see her baby boy</a> just two days before he died. </p>
<p>In the first six months after the full implementation of the ban, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-immigration-ban/us-issued-waivers-to-trumps-travel-ban-at-rate-of-2-percent-data-shows-idUSKBN1JN07T">such waivers</a> were only given to around 2% of individuals from banned countries. This gradually <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-immigration-visas-exclusive/exclusive-only-6-percent-of-those-subject-to-trump-travel-ban-granted-u-s-waivers-idUSKCN1RG30X">increased to 6%</a> after one year. </p>
<p>Being considered for a waiver is not the same as getting a visa. A person who is being considered for a waiver still cannot enter the U.S. They must wait under “administrative processing” status until they are cleared for a visa. It could take several years before applicants find out the results of their application. During this period, they cannot enter the U.S.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/24/politics/iranian-americans-travel-ban-trump-lawsuit/index.html">One recent lawsuit</a> against the travel ban claims that some of their 14 clients have been under consideration for a waiver for 18 months at least, with no visa being granted to any of them yet. </p>
<h2>What’s next</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/congress-muslim-ban-hearing_n_5d892984e4b0c2a85caf8658">The first congressional hearing on the travel ban</a>, held on Sept. 24, established a need to reassess the impacts of the policy.</p>
<p>From what I see, looking at 18 months of government-provided data, the current travel ban is in effect a Muslim ban. I think that policymakers should take a deeper look into travel ban statistics and hold the Trump administration accountable for its visa policy for the restricted countries.</p>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123564/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vahid Niayesh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Was the ban a Muslim ban – or was that just an anti-Trump narrative? A political scientist combs through the data for answers.Vahid Niayesh, Lecturer in Political Science, California State University, Long BeachLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1234992019-10-22T11:39:28Z2019-10-22T11:39:28ZIf you’re using ‘millennial’ as a meaningful measurement, you should probably stop<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/295308/original/file-20191002-49377-wrjr0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Does your mental image of a millennial align with reality?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/friends-chilling-outside-taking-group-selfie-1025803621?src=5KFokPZPTjjFWtdh3rTQ7A-1-28">Jacob Lund/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>What value does the word “millennial” actually have?</p>
<p>Americans have heard the term ad nauseum by now. In <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/05/22/millennials-could-push-american-politics-left-or-totally-upend-them/">politics</a>, public relations or <a href="https://www.inc.com/christina-desmarais/27-expert-tips-for-marketing-to-millennials.html">marketing</a>, it’s a buzzword. </p>
<p>But millennial doesn’t hold nearly as much meaning as Americans pretend it does. Here’s why. </p>
<h2>It doesn’t mean what we often say it means</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.foxnews.com/health/vaping-harming-teeth-study">A recent news story</a> in Fox News was an example of a common problem – though any examination of news coverage would likely show that such a story is not unique. </p>
<p>The segment, which aired Sept. 12, featured a discussion about the teenage vaping crisis. A health expert asked, “Why is the attraction for the young generation, why the attraction for the millennial population that is using these products?” </p>
<p>Similarly, my university students frequently say, “Well, you know us millennials like or do ‘x.’” I’ll ask for clarification on who they’re talking about. They’ll say, “I don’t know, 18- to 24-year-olds.”</p>
<p>The problem? The use of the term in such a context is wrong. The term millennials has become synonymous with “young people,” “college students” or the like. </p>
<p>But, while the term has arguably been used the same way for years, the generation is of course aging. While definitions may vary, <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/millennial-life-how-young-adulthood-today-compares-with-prior-generations/">according to Pew</a>, one of the nation’s leading research organizations, the term applies to those born between 1981 and 1996. As a new generation label is applied about every 15 to 20 years, millennials are now between about 23 and 38.</p>
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<p>It’s important to use the right term for the right group. A reference to teens or a typical college student is now a reference to <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/consumer-packaged-goods/our-insights/true-gen-generation-z-and-its-implications-for-companies">Generation Z</a>, not millennials. </p>
<h2>A big, diverse group</h2>
<p>Okay, fine. If you get the definition correct and use it properly, then you’re good, right? Millennials are still this collective of young working adults, you say. </p>
<p>No. The term is often meaningless because of the group’s size and diversity. As of this year, millennials have become the largest population group in the country, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/03/01/millennials-overtake-baby-boomers/">over 70 million</a>. That’s roughly equivalent to the number of Americans living in the Pacific and Mountain West time zones combined. </p>
<p>Large numbers of people – be it “millennials” or “Americans” – are put into categorical buckets to simplify and make sense of a large amount of information. But that may lead to troublesome characterizations in light of the diversity within such a big group. </p>
<p>For example, the generation is <a href="https://money.cnn.com/interactive/economy/diversity-millennials-boomers/">far more racially diverse</a> than previous American generations, as it’s just over half white. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/07/30/most-common-age-among-us-racial-ethnic-groups/ft_19-07-11_generationsbyrace_1/"><img src="https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/FT_19.07.11_GenerationsByRace_1.png?w=640"></a></p>
<p>You may have heard some of the stereotypes about millennials. They’re broke college graduates <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/student-loan-debt-i-had-a-panic-attack-millennials-struggle-under-the-burden-of-student-loan-debt/">loaded with school loans</a> living with their parents after school. And they’re all <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2018/10/08/millennials-tinder-survey-single-life-dating-relationships/1535860002/">single and not having kids</a>.</p>
<p>Perhaps my favorite story that summarized these stereotypes was titled “<a href="https://money.cnn.com/2017/05/15/news/millennials-home-buying-avocado-toast/index.html">Millionaire to millennials</a>: Lay off the avocado toast if you want a house.”</p>
<h2>Myth-busting</h2>
<p>Even a surface-level review of the data busts many of these broad myths. </p>
<p>While millennials are more educated than any previous generation, the majority – about 60% – <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/millennial-life-how-young-adulthood-today-compares-with-prior-generations/">don’t have a bachelor’s degree</a>. </p>
<p>In the 2020 election, campaigns and news coverage focus on student loan debt <a href="https://www.vox.com/first-person/2019/5/2/18527036/sanders-bernie-millennials-cancel-student-debt-forgiveness">among more educated voters</a>, but data actually show that credit cards are <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/18/student-loans-are-not-the-no-1-source-of-millennial-debt.html">the more common type of millennial debt</a>.</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/millennial-life-how-young-adulthood-today-compares-with-prior-generations/">Pew has shown</a> that millennials with bachelor’s degrees are actually doing quite well financially – to the tune of over US$100,000 household incomes. This number is just below Gen X and above late boomers with a similar education. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, households led by millennials with a high school education are making less than $50,000. So <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/millennial-life-how-young-adulthood-today-compares-with-prior-generations/">income inequality based on education differences</a> continues to be a major problem, just as it was with previous generations. </p>
<p>While it is true that millennials are <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/millennial-life-how-young-adulthood-today-compares-with-prior-generations/">much more likely than other generations to live with their parents</a>, 90% of those with a college degree do not. </p>
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<p>The data are similar on the dating and family front. While there is again truth in the broader trend – fewer millennials are married or have kids than the previous generation – about half of millennials are <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/millennial-life-how-young-adulthood-today-compares-with-prior-generations/">already married or have children</a>. </p>
<p>And, let’s think practically about the age range. How different is one’s life between 23, or the start of the generation, and 38, the end of it? Be it home ownership, family life or job situation, broad discussions are often talking about people in entirely different situations. </p>
<p>Trust me – as an older millennial who has spent most of my university career teaching younger millennials, this becomes clear rather quickly. </p>
<h2>The takeaway</h2>
<p>So, if use of such broad terms can be misleading or inaccurate, why use them at all? </p>
<p>Use of a broad term in a proper context does allow one to make sense of a large group of people. There can still be meaningful trends that are accurate, such as the fact that <a href="https://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/">nearly 60% of millennials lean toward the Democratic Party</a>. </p>
<p>But, even then, that means about 30 million millennials are not in that category. In a world where <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/12/01/donald-trump-will-be-president-thanks-to-80000-people-in-three-states/">tens of thousands of people can decide who is president</a>, any broad summaries miss important points. </p>
<p>I think that the further away industries – like public relations, advertising or political campaigns – can get from lumping people into generalized demographic buckets, the better. Otherwise, they’ll continue to miss useful insights into the nation’s largest group of people. </p>
<p>[ <em>Insight, in your inbox each day.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=insight">You can get it with The Conversation’s email newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123499/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph Cabosky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Millennials are now between about 23 and 38 – and the group is more diverse than it often gets credit for.Joseph Cabosky, Assistant Professor of Public Relations, University of North Carolina at Chapel HillLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1240672019-10-21T12:18:19Z2019-10-21T12:18:19ZCities with more black residents rely more on traffic tickets and fines for revenue<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296498/original/file-20191010-188807-5s7733.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">How much does your city make from traffic tickets and other fines?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/view-on-rear-mirror-car-police-695671243?src=tmYXjs0YoodCxBD8VR1RkA-1-0">vchal/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>I’ve been thinking a lot lately about the last time I got a speeding ticket. It was nearly a decade ago and it’s a pretty unremarkable story: I was on my way back to Columbus, Ohio, from a friend’s wedding and was going something like 15 mph over the speed limit. An officer pulled me over, asked me if I knew why he did, walked back to his squad car and returned with a ticket for US$90. </p>
<p>At the time, I didn’t think much about it. I was 22, I was speeding, and that is what happened when you got caught. I didn’t consider the motives of the officer, his law enforcement agency or the financial status of the city he worked for. And I definitely didn’t consider the fact that I was a brown man driving through rural Ohio. </p>
<p>But now that I’m <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=_5eMV20AAAAJ&hl=en">a scholar of public finance</a>, it’s all I can think about. My recent research – <a href="http://doi.org/10.1086/691354">and that of others</a> – shows that communities with more residents of color are more likely to rely on revenue coming from traffic tickets and other minor fines.</p>
<h2>Fines as revenue</h2>
<p>Local governments on average don’t rely all that much on revenue from things like traffic citations, termed fines and forfeitures. </p>
<p>According to data from the <a href="https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/2012/econ/local/public-use-datasets.html">Census of Governments</a>, the average city generated about $21 per person from fines in 2012, the last year for which there is national data. For reference, the average city generated about $150 per person from sales taxes at the time.</p>
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<p>But there is a lot of variation: Some cities <a href="https://www.governing.com/topics/finance/gov-addicted-to-fines.html">get more than 10% or 20% of their revenue from fines</a>. </p>
<p>Why might some communities rely on fines way more than others do? One reason could be higher incidences of crime. Another might be that certain governments make a strategic choice to target passersby via speed traps. It could be a response to budgetary shortfalls or fiscal stress. And still another might be the race of the population or law enforcement agency.</p>
<p>If it’s not clear how or why this could involve race, you should take a look at the <a href="https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/opa/press-releases/attachments/2015/03/04/ferguson_police_department_report.pdf">Department of Justice report on in Ferguson, Missouri</a>. After Michael Brown, a black man living in a majority-black community, was shot and killed by a white police officer serving in a majority-white police force, the department investigated.</p>
<p>It found that officers in Ferguson were focused on revenue generation, a practice known as “policing for profit.” Police aggressively fined residents, primarily black residents, without much consideration of whether doing so enhanced public trust or safety.</p>
<p>According to the report, “The harms of Ferguson’s police and court practices are borne disproportionately by African Americans, and there is evidence that this is due in part to intentional discrimination on the basis of race.”</p>
<p>But was Ferguson an isolated case? And, more generally, what explains the variation in city use of fines? My colleagues – Charlotte Kirschner and <a href="http://hss.fullerton.edu/paj/Faculty/s_stone.aspx">Samuel B. Stone</a>, also scholars of public finance – and I set out to find out.</p>
<h2>Who relies on fines</h2>
<p>In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1078087419834632">our study</a>, we looked at a representative sample of 93 California cities from 2009 to 2014 to determine what affects how much cities fine residents and rely on fines for revenue.</p>
<p>We examined how fines were affected by levels of crime and public safety, city financial health and budgetary stress, and the racial composition of both the population and the law enforcement agency serving it.</p>
<p>We found no relationship between crime or budgetary stress and fines. However, we did find that cities with larger black populations fine residents more on a per capita basis and are more reliant on fines.</p>
<p>All else equal, our results showed that a 1% increase in black population is associated with a 5% increase in per capita revenue from fines and a 1% increase in share of total revenue from fines.</p>
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<p>Furthermore, the cities seemingly most reliant on fines are the ones with the highest percentages of black residents being served by law enforcement that is whiter than its community. </p>
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<p>Take Inglewood: In 2010, it was 43% black and 23% white, but its law enforcement agency was flipped, at nearly 40% white and 16% black. The city generated nearly 5% of its revenues from fines, more than double the average city in California.</p>
<p>Despite the similarities to Ferguson, it is really important for me to emphasize that our research isn’t accusing anyone of being racist or intentionally discriminating against minorities – though, to be fair, our results don’t preclude this explanation either. Rather, I’m just highlighting that even seemingly colorblind policies, like a $90 traffic citation for speeding, can have outcomes that are very much not colorblind.</p>
<h2>Fixing the problem</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, I wasn’t very surprised by our results. Even setting aside the Ferguson case, there’s a lot of research that points in this direction.</p>
<p>First, policing for profit via <a href="https://www.aclu.org/blog/criminal-law-reform/reforming-police-practices/policing-profit-alive-and-well-south-carolina">civil asset forfeiture</a> and <a href="http://doi.org/10.1257/aer.99.1.509">traffic tickets</a> is, unfortunately, a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0047-2352(01)00082-4">documented phenomenon</a> that <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w23873">alters police behavior</a>. </p>
<p>Second, studies persistently find that minority residents and communities of color are more common recipients of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0093854807304484">law enforcement action</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/657525">punishment</a>. </p>
<p>And third, government agencies that are more representative of their communities along <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6210.2006.00653.x">gender</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.21876">racial dimensions</a> have been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0275074019874454">demonstrated to reduce unfavorable outcomes for minority groups across many studies</a>. The only thing we did was show that these things are all connected.</p>
<p>So, how can Americans solve this issue? I think we should start by eliminating <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3392412">the incentives governments might have to fine for revenue generation</a>. Do this by <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Makowsky_PP_20190314.pdf">pooling money from fines at the state level and redistributing it evenly</a> instead of letting local governments make their own decisions.</p>
<p>Then, elect more ethnic and racial minorities to be mayors or serve on city councils and proactively focus on ensuring meaningful representation in the unelected bureaucracy. Our research demonstrates these changes should alter the distribution of fines, but making them so would probably have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jopart/mut001">other beneficial effects</a> for underserved communities as well.</p>
<p>If nothing else, the next time you get pulled over for speeding – especially if it’s <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2128852">for doing 55 in a 54</a> – you should ask yourself why it’s happening. It might be a lot less about how fast you were going than you’d think.</p>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124067/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Akheil Singla does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A study looked at fines in 93 California cities. Cities with more black residents and more disproportionately white police forces tended to rely the most on fines.Akheil Singla, Assistant Professor at the School of Public Affairs, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.