tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/coal-946/articlesCoal – The Conversation2024-03-25T02:42:08Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2260112024-03-25T02:42:08Z2024-03-25T02:42:08ZIndustry shutdowns are messy and painful: 4 lessons Australia’s coal sector can learn from car-makers about bowing out<p>Shifting Australia’s electricity sector to low-carbon technologies and closing coal plants is vital to tackling climate change. But such transitions are easier said than done.</p>
<p>People and economies are often deeply connected to the coal industry. Coal plants have often been integral to a community for decades, and closing them is a complex social process. </p>
<p>So how do we minimise the social and economic effects of such closures, and ensure communities and regions continue to thrive?</p>
<p>To answer this question, we looked to another sector that’s recently undergone large-scale shutdowns: Australia’s car-making industry. Our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2210422424000261">research</a> highlights four lessons to help plan the end of the coal-fired power sector.</p>
<h2>The huge loss of the car industry</h2>
<p>Australia’s coal plants are polluting, <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Environment_and_Communications/Coal_fired_power_stations/Final_Report">ageing</a> and inefficient. Closing them sooner rather than later makes sense. </p>
<p>But the shift is challenging. First, renewable energy must be scaled up to cover the loss of coal-fired power. Second, poorly managed closures can lead to widespread social and economic disruption.</p>
<p>For guidance, we can look to closures in the Australian car industry in recent decades, mostly in South Australia and Victoria. The closures were due to <a href="https://www.afr.com/opinion/bill-scales-the-rise-and-fall-of-the-australian-car-manufacturing-industry-20171018-gz3ky4">economic and policy shifts</a> which made the domestic industry untenable.</p>
<p>The last closure occurred in October 2017, when Holden shut down its <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-08/holden-closure-australia-history-car-manufacturing/9015562">Elizabeth plant</a> after 70 years of operations. The move led to mass <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1080/21681376.2021.2016071?src=getftr">job losses</a>. It also disrupted <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/apr/11/adelaide-elizabeth-holden-500-car-industry-manufacturing-loss">community and social cohesion</a>, leading to family breakdowns and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/hpja.564?src=getftr">social and health issues</a> among workers.</p>
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<h2>Lessons for coal plant closures</h2>
<p>Holden’s closure process was not perfect. <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21582041.2024.2322132">Research</a> showed three years after the Elizabeth plant closed, many workers remained financially vulnerable. And while workers were helped into new employment as quickly as possible, this often came at the expense of quality employment, and did not meet the demand for new skills to align with emerging industries.</p>
<p>The Holden experience nonetheless offers lessons for the coal-fired power industry.</p>
<p>Both industries are male-dominated and involve a high proportion of blue-collar workers with low levels of formal education and skills training. Plants are often located in communities dominated by single-income households. The industries are a source of pride for locals and form a major part of people’s social and cultural identity, often across generations.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2210422424000261">our research</a>, we spoke with people from various groups involved in Holden’s closure process. These included the car industry and its supply chain, agencies across all levels of government, community organisations and academia.</p>
<p>Our research highlights four standout lessons: </p>
<p><strong>1. Timing matters</strong></p>
<p>The Elizabeth plant closure was a gradual process that unfolded over several years. This extended timeline allowed most workers, families and businesses to be prepared – as well as they could be – for imminent restructuring. </p>
<p>Holden planned a staged release of workers over three years. This prompted local and state agencies to coordinate resources, and helped workers and their families plan for the transition without experiencing immediate pressure on their social and economic wellbeing.</p>
<p><strong>2. Try innovative solutions</strong></p>
<p>Holden’s “transition centre”, established in 2014, was a one-stop shop where employees could access a range of services and information. A local government representative told us the transition centre:</p>
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<p>took care of every aspect of [the worker’s] life […] their social, their health and well-being, their finances.</p>
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<p>With the mental health of the workers and their families in mind, for example, the centre provided information about healthy eating and exercising. However, the centre wasn’t always on the cards. As one interviewee observed:</p>
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<p>Although Holden’s leadership wanted to make a difference, it wasn’t easy to convince the company to fund the centre. There was no other way […] Government funds were not arriving soon enough and were going to be accessible only to certain employees for certain purposes. At the government’s request, the centre opened its doors to the whole supply chain eventually.</p>
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<p><strong>3. Consider families, too</strong></p>
<p>When longstanding industries close, the impact is felt beyond the worker. It changes family dynamics and poses risks to mental health. It also demands new skills such as financial literacy amongst redundant workers and families so they can better manage payouts and future investments. </p>
<p>Research participants told us these issues were overlooked in the early phases of Holden’s closure of the Elizabeth plant. In several cases, poor financial decision-making led to family breakdowns and bankruptcy.</p>
<p>However, the transition team eventually recognised the need to engage with affected families. It organised morning and afternoon tea sessions for workers’ partners, and mailed financial literacy information to employees’ homes.</p>
<p><strong>4. Work together</strong></p>
<p>In the early days of Holden’s closure planning, there was limited coordination between workers and government agencies providing support services to workers and their families.</p>
<p>What’s more, one state government expert closely involved with the transition process said agencies recognised the need for consultation with workers, however:</p>
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<p>the translation of the messages into something that was appropriate for the scale of the transition and that responded to the specific needs and aspirations of the community was significantly lacking.</p>
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<p>Over time, industry and governments recognised the need to coordinate efforts to engage with and assist workers and their families, to ensure the transition was as smooth as possible.</p>
<h2>Navigating a difficult time</h2>
<p>Like the car industry shutdowns, the closure of coal-fired power stations is likely to be messy at times – but the negative effects should be managed as well as possible. </p>
<p>The car industry’s experience can guide governments and the private sector in how to minimise disruption for regions, communities and workers.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-what-happens-to-workers-when-coal-fired-power-plants-close-it-isnt-good-215434">Here's what happens to workers when coal-fired power plants close. It isn't good</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The closure of Australia’s coal-fired power stations will be challenging. The car industry experience provides lessons on how to protect workers and families.Vigya Sharma, Senior Research Fellow, Sustainable Minerals Institute, The University of QueenslandJulia Loginova, Research fellow, Sustainable Minerals Institute, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2260202024-03-19T06:21:50Z2024-03-19T06:21:50ZFinally, good news for power bills: energy regulator promises small savings for most customers on the ‘default market offer’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582732/original/file-20240319-16-nu9kfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=67%2C8%2C5540%2C3724&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/queensland-australia-common-public-substations-1062133949">chinasong, Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Electricity customers in four Australian states can breathe a sigh of relief. After two years in a row of 20% <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-electricity-prices-going-up-again-and-will-it-ever-end-201869">price increases</a>, power prices have finally stabilised. In many places they’re going down. </p>
<p>The good news is contained in two separate draft decisions today by the <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/news/articles/news-releases/default-market-offer-dmo-2024-25-draft-determination">Australian Energy Regulator</a> and Victoria’s <a href="https://www.esc.vic.gov.au/electricity-and-gas/prices-tariffs-and-benchmarks/victorian-default-offer/victorian-default-offer-price-review-2024-25">Essential Services Commission</a>, on the maximum price energy retailers can charge electricity consumers under a specific plan that must be offered to all consumers.</p>
<p>The price is officially known as the “<a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/programs/price-safety-net">default market offer</a>”. It’s the price you’re charged on a “default” plan with an electricity retailer – in other words, the plan customers are on if they haven’t shopped around to find a better deal from competing retailers. The bottom line is, most of these residential electricity customers should receive price reductions of between 0.4% (A$13) and 7.1% ($211) next financial year. In most cases that’s less than the rate of inflation. </p>
<p>The relief is largely the result of a drop in <a href="https://theconversation.com/wholesale-power-prices-are-falling-fast-but-consumers-will-have-to-wait-for-relief-heres-why-222495">wholesale prices</a> – that’s the price paid to the generators producing electricity. Unfortunately, however, at the same time transmission and distribution prices – or network costs – have gone up. So the savings won’t be as great as they might have been. </p>
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<h2>A big improvement on previous years</h2>
<p>This is the sixth year in which regulators have set default market offers for retail electricity customers. They do it where there is competition in the sector: so in southeast Queensland, New South Wales, South Australia and, separately, Victoria. </p>
<p>It does not include Tasmania, the ACT, Western Australia or the Northern Territory, where the relevant regulator sets the prices and there’s no or very little competition.</p>
<p>About 5-10% of consumers across the states involved are on default plans. The rest have a contract arrangement with a retailer. But the draft decision, if enacted, still directly affects hundreds of thousands of people. And as commentators <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-19/aer-flags-price-cuts-for-some-rises-for-others/103602946">have observed</a>, it sends an important market signal about the general direction of electricity prices.</p>
<p>The Australian Energy Regulator says most residential customers on the default market offer can expect to save on their electricity bills in 2024-25. But the offers vary depending where you live. </p>
<p>Have a look at the table above to see what residential customers without “controlled load” can expect. That covers most households. (Controlled load is when you also have an off-peak tariff for hot water heating.)</p>
<p>Some customers will be paying more for electricity. In Southeast Queensland, residential customers will pay 2.7% more, which is an extra $53 on average. </p>
<p>Using an inflation forecast of 3.3%, the Australian Energy Regulator also calculates what they call the “real” year-to-year variation in prices. So even if there’s a small increase in the price for a particular area, it’s less than the rate of inflation. For that example in southeast Queensland, it equates to a decrease of 0.6% and a saving of $12 in real terms. </p>
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<p>Residential customers on the <a href="https://www.esc.vic.gov.au/electricity-and-gas/prices-tariffs-and-benchmarks/victorian-default-offer">Victorian default market offer</a> can expect to save 6.4%. The retail power prices in Victoria are <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/power-bill-relief-could-be-coming-as-wholesale-electricity-prices-fall-20240130-p5f14e">slightly better than in the other states</a> largely because there are lower wholesale power prices.</p>
<p>All in all it’s a big improvement on the price hikes of <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-electricity-prices-going-up-again-and-will-it-ever-end-201869">last year</a> and the year before that. </p>
<p>The final default market offer prices will be released in May, but we can expect little change. </p>
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Read more:
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<h2>Network prices are up</h2>
<p>Regulators set the default market offer by itemising all costs retailers are likely to incur in the course of running their business. From that, they calculate the fair price retailers should offer customers on default plans. </p>
<p>Wholesale electricity costs, incurred when retailers buy electricity from generators on the wholesale market, make up <a href="https://www.energyfactsaustralia.org.au/key-issues/energy-costs/">maybe 30–40% of your bill</a>. </p>
<p>The other major cost retailers face is for the electricity transmission and distribution network – that is, the “poles and wires”. These also comprise around 40% of your bill.</p>
<p>The network price is driven by inflation and interest rate rises, and also includes the costs of maintenance, and building new transmission infrastructure to connect renewable energy generators to the grid.</p>
<p>The easing of wholesale prices since their 2022 peak has been offset by increases in these network prices. In fact, network prices have increased by almost as much as wholesale prices have come down. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wholesale-power-prices-are-falling-fast-but-consumers-will-have-to-wait-for-relief-heres-why-222495">Wholesale power prices are falling fast – but consumers will have to wait for relief. Here's why</a>
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<h2>A difficult ask</h2>
<p>Responding to the draft decision on Tuesday, Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/albanese-government-energy-plan-stabilising-energy-prices-after-global-crisis">said</a> it showed the Albanese government was stabilising energy prices.</p>
<p>But Bowen came to office promising to <a href="https://www.chrisbowen.net/media/media-releases-and-op-eds/powering-australia-labor-s-plan-to-create-jobs-cut-power-bills-and-reduce-emissions-by-boosting-renewable-energy/">cut power bills by $275 by 2025</a>. That deadline is not very far away.</p>
<p>Bowen made that commitment in December 2021. Very soon after, <a href="https://theconversation.com/electricity-prices-are-spiking-ten-times-as-much-as-normal-here-are-some-educated-guesses-as-to-why-182849">electricity prices</a> shot through the roof. It’s becoming very difficult to see how the $275 cost reduction will be achieved by next year. </p>
<p>The bottom line is prices have stabilised after a couple of bad years and hopefully the worst is behind us. But, it would be a brave person who attempts to predict where they go from here. There are too many moving parts. Governments should stay the course on policies, and consumers, worried about electricity prices, should go online, compare offers, and to find the best possible deal.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unsexy-but-vital-why-warnings-over-grid-reliability-are-really-about-building-more-transmission-lines-212603">Unsexy but vital: why warnings over grid reliability are really about building more transmission lines</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Wood may have interests in companies impacted by the energy transition through his superannuation fund.</span></em></p>In states with competition between retailers, the energy regulator is promising savings for most customers on the default plan. But it’s small change compared to price hikes. Here’s what to expect.Tony Wood, Program Director, Energy, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2180912024-03-10T13:10:22Z2024-03-10T13:10:22ZThe world is not moving fast enough on climate change — social sciences can help explain why<p>In late 2023 the United States government released <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/">its Fifth National Climate Assessment</a> (NCA). The NCA is a semi-regular summation of the impacts of climate change upon the U.S. and the fifth assessment was notable for being the first to include <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/20/">a chapter on social systems and justice</a>. </p>
<p>Built on decades of social science research on climate change, the fifth NCA contends with two truths that are increasingly being reckoned with in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/21/climate/biden-environmental-justice.html">U.S. popular</a> and <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1816020116">academic conversations</a>. </p>
<p>The first is that climate change has the potential to exacerbate health, social and economic outcomes for Black, Indigenous, people of colour (BIPOC) and low-income communities. The second is that social systems and institutions — including governmental, cultural, spiritual and economic structures — are the only places where adaptation and mitigation can occur.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/it-is-not-just-heat-waves-climate-change-is-also-a-crisis-of-disconnection-210594">It is not just heat waves — climate change is also a crisis of disconnection</a>
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<p>We only have to compare <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11606-020-06081-w">mortality rates for the COVID-19 pandemic disaggregated by race, income, and other axes of inequality</a> to recognize that we are not all in the same boat, despite experiencing the same storm. Today, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/sou120">race</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1078087403253053">income</a> similarly predict who is likely to be displaced permanently after a major hurricane — and forced relocation can have negative impacts on individuals and communities for generations. </p>
<p>Understanding how existing social systems influence, and are influenced by, climate change is key to not only slowing the effects of an increasingly warming Earth, but also ensuring that society’s transition to a new world is a <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/978-3-030-89460-3.pdf">just one</a>. </p>
<p>And there is no doubt that we are indeed facing a new world.</p>
<h2>Not moving fast enough</h2>
<p>Decades of scientific research have shown that <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/all-figures">increasingly devastating and rapid climatic changes</a> are ahead of us, including more intense hurricanes, droughts and floods. </p>
<p>Our recent levels of resource consumption — particularly in the Global North and countries with large developing economies — <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262681612/a-climate-of-injustice/">are untenable</a>. To be clear, the world <em>is</em> responding to these risks with the U.S. alone achieving a <a href="https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2021-04/documents/us-ghg-inventory-1990-2019-data-highlights.pdf">13 percent decrease in annual greenhouse gas emissions between 2005 and 2019</a>, but these responses are not good enough.</p>
<p>It is the purview of social scientists — the scientists tasked with studying human society and social relationships in all of their complexity — to ask why.</p>
<p>What is it about the ethics, cultures, economies, and symbols at play in the world that have made it so difficult to turn the tide and make change? Why do we — individuals, societies, cultures, and nations — mostly seem unable to curb emissions at the rates necessary to save ourselves and our planet?</p>
<p>These are questions that can only partially be answered by new information and technologies developed by physical scientists and engineers. We also need an understanding of how humans behave. Having new technology matters for little if you do not also understand how social, economic and political decisions are made — and how certain groups are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1818859116">able to develop habits around lower rates of emissions and consumption</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/telling-stories-of-our-climate-futures-is-essential-to-thinking-through-the-net-zero-choices-of-today-210326">Telling stories of our climate futures is essential to thinking through the net-zero choices of today</a>
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<p>We know that inequitable systems create <a href="http://thinkpunkgirl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Lee_2021.pdf">unevenly distributed risk</a> and capacities to respond. For example, a hurricane’s intensity scale is less predictive of its mortality rates than the <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27572097/">socio-economic conditions within the nation where the storm makes landfall</a>. Understanding these dynamics is the only way to respond to climate change in a way that does not entrench deep tendencies towards racist, sexist and classist landscapes of vulnerability. </p>
<h2>Empowering real change</h2>
<p>Recognizing that disasters and climate disruptions have the potential to make inequality worse also means that we have the opportunity to do better. </p>
<p>There are a range of outcomes that may stem from climate related disasters with a vast inventory of what is possible. There are also hopeful examples that point the way to rich collaborations and problem solving. For example, <a href="https://www.cityoftulsa.org/government/departments/engineering-services/flood-control/flooding-history/">Tulsa, Okla.</a> was the most frequently flooded city in the U.S. from the 1960s into the 1980s, but a coalition of concerned citizens came together with the city government to create a floodplain management plan that serves as <a href="https://kresge.org/resource/climate-adaptation-the-state-of-practice-in-u-s-communities/">a model</a> for other cities. </p>
<p>In another example, Indigenous communities around the U.S. have some of the most <a href="https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH16">proactive planning</a> in place for adapting to climate change, despite histories of persecution, theft and violent exploitation.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A report on Indigenous-led bison conservations in the U.S., produced by the Associated Press.</span></figcaption>
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<p>There is an adage that says in order to go quickly, go alone; if you want to go far, go together. Make no mistake, climate change is the most urgent issue of our time. However, moving quickly and carelessly will serve only to re-entrench existing social, economic, political and environmental inequalities. </p>
<p>Instead, we must look at other ways of being in the world. We can repair and recreate our relationships with the Earth and the consumption that has gotten us to this point. We can <a href="https://theconversation.com/respect-for-indigenous-knowledge-must-lead-nature-conservation-efforts-in-canada-156273">pay attention and listen to global Indigenous peoples and others who have cared for this earth for millennia</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-climate-change-theatre-and-performances-reveal-new-narratives-about-how-we-need-to-live-219366">COP28: Climate change theatre and performances reveal new narratives about how we need to live</a>
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<p>We must be more creative with our solutions and committed to ensuring that all, and not just a privileged few, are able to live in a better world than the one in which they were born into. Technological approaches alone will not achieve this goal. To build a better world we need the social sciences.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218091/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Climate change is often seen as solely a technical problem. This is a misguided belief. Understanding how to build a better world begins, and ends, with understanding the societies which inhabit it.Fayola Helen Jacobs, Assistant Professor of urban planning, University of MinnesotaCandis Callison, Associate professor, School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, and Institute for Critical Indigenous Studies, University of British ColumbiaElizabeth Marino, Associate Professor of Anthropology, Oregon State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2213582024-03-06T17:14:56Z2024-03-06T17:14:56ZHow the 1984 miners’ strike paved the way for devolution in Wales<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577265/original/file-20240222-24-1zfxh1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2000%2C1310&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Miners from different collieries gather in Port Talbot in April 1984.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/alandenney/2457055287">Alan Denney/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>March 2024 marks the 40th anniversary of the start of the <a href="https://www.history.ox.ac.uk/miners-strike-1984-5-oral-history">miners’ strike</a>. In Wales, particularly within the south Wales coalfield, it was more than an industrial dispute. This was a major political event that reflected deeper cultural and economic changes. </p>
<p>These changes, alongside discontent at the emphasis of the then-UK prime minister <a href="https://academic.oup.com/cje/article/44/2/319/5550923">Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government</a> on free market economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk-strikes-how-margaret-thatcher-and-other-leaders-cut-trade-union-powers-over-centuries-186270">stifling trade unions</a> and reducing the size of the state shifted how many Labour heartlands viewed the idea of self-government for Wales. This was due to Thatcher’s actions hitting at the heart of many working-class Labour voters’ existence, leading to threats to livelihoods and communities. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/what-thatcher-did-for-wales/">Many started feeling</a> that some of the devastation wreaked by Thatcherism could have been avoided had there been a devolved Welsh government. That government would, in all likelihood, have been Labour controlled, acting as a “protective shield”.</p>
<p>Instead, by the time of the May 1979 general election (five years before the miners’ strike), Wales was a nation divided. Only weeks earlier, it had overwhelmingly <a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/RP97-113/RP97-113.pdf">rejected</a> the Labour government’s proposal to create a Welsh Assembly, which would have given Wales a certain degree of autonomy from Westminster.</p>
<p>Many Labour MPs, such as Welshman Neil Kinnock, had vehemently opposed devolution and favoured a united British state. However, it was now this state, through a National Coal Board overseen by a Westminster Conservative government, that was aiming to further close Welsh coal mines. </p>
<p>The National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) was both a political and workplace representative for miners and their communities. For a politician like Kinnock, balancing party and local interests was difficult. </p>
<p>Thatcher’s Conservative party won a large majority at the <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/commons-information-office/m09.pdf">1983 election</a> and the Ebbw Vale MP, Michael Foot, had been Labour leader during its defeat. His left-wing manifesto had been <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/8550425.stm">dubbed</a> the “longest suicide note in history” by Gerald Kaufman, himself a Labour MP. It led to Foot’s resignation and the election of Kinnock as the leader of the opposition. </p>
<p>As a miners’ strike looked more likely, the national context made Labour party support for the strike problematic. Despite his political and personal ties to the NUM, Kinnock <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/509387">disagreed</a> with its leaders, such as Arthur Scargill, and their strategies for the strike. However, the Labour leader supported the right of the miners to defend their livelihood. </p>
<p>In a period of difficult deindustrialisation across nationalised industries, Labour was caught between unstoppable economic restructuring and job losses that affected its traditional voters.</p>
<h2>Thatcherism and Wales</h2>
<p>Gwyn A. Williams, a Marxist historian, <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/When_was_Wales/QUJ0QgAACAAJ?hl=en">described</a> Welsh people as “a naked people under an acid rain”. This acidity had two main ingredients: Thatcherism and the “no” vote for a Welsh Assembly in 1979. </p>
<p>According to this analysis, the absence of devolution in Wales had left it exposed to the vagaries of Conservative governance in Westminster. The dangers of this were illuminated during the miners’ strike and in high unemployment rates of <a href="https://www.gov.wales/digest-welsh-historical-statistics-0">nearly 14% in Wales</a> by the mid-1980s. </p>
<p>However, it would be a fallacy to argue that Wales was a no-go zone for the Conservatives, even after the strike. In the <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/commons-information-office/m11.pdf">1987 general election</a>, although their number of MPs dropped from the 1983 high of 14 to eight, they were still attracting 29.5% of the Welsh vote. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="Black and white photo of Margaret Thatcher with her hands raised in front of a union flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577951/original/file-20240226-24-onf851.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577951/original/file-20240226-24-onf851.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577951/original/file-20240226-24-onf851.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577951/original/file-20240226-24-onf851.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577951/original/file-20240226-24-onf851.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1059&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577951/original/file-20240226-24-onf851.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1059&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577951/original/file-20240226-24-onf851.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1059&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Was Margaret Thatcher one of the unwitting architects of Welsh devolution?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/levanrami/43795237465">Levan Ramishvili/Flickr</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It would take several more years of Conservative policies such as the poll tax, the tenure of John Redwood as secretary of state for Wales (1993-95) and the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/13689889808413006">scandal-riven sagas</a> of the party during the 1990s for them to gain zero seats in Wales in 1997. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, the strike, and the febrile atmosphere of the period, had carved out a Welsh distinctiveness to anti-Conservative rhetoric. Several organisations and conferences during the 1980s laid the groundwork that shaped new questions about Welsh nationhood. They contributed to the swing towards a narrow “yes” vote in the 1997 Welsh devolution <a href="https://law.gov.wales/constitution-and-government/constitution-and-devolution/executive-devolution-1998-2007">referendum</a> offered by Tony Blair’s Labour government, which came to power in 1997.</p>
<p>In February 1985, Hywel Francis, a historian and later Labour MP for Aberafan, published an article in the magazine, <a href="https://banmarchive.org.uk/marxism-today/february-1985/mining-the-popular-front/">Marxism Today</a>, suggesting that the miners’ strike was not merely an industrial dispute but an anti-Thatcher resistance movement. </p>
<p>Central to his argument was the formation of the <a href="https://archives.library.wales/index.php/wales-congress-in-support-of-mining-communities">Wales Congress in Support of Mining Communities</a> the previous autumn, which formalised some of the “unexpected alliances” heralded by the strike. The Congress coordinated the demonstrations and activism of some of the diverse groups that both supported the miners and simultaneously resisted many of the policies of the Thatcher government. These included trade unionists, religious leaders, the women’s peace movement, gay rights campaigners, as well as Labour members and Welsh nationalist activists. According to Francis, the latter two realised that “unless they joined, the world would pass them by”.</p>
<p>The congress aimed to stimulate a coordinated debate about Welsh mining communities, moving the narrative away from picket-line conflict and towards a democratic vision of Wales’s future. </p>
<p>While the strike ended only a month after Francis’s article, and the organisation itself dissolved in 1986, the congress had bridged many chasms in Welsh society. It showed old enemies in Labour and Plaid Cymru that solidarity could reap more benefits than the overt tribalism that had blighted the devolution campaign of the 1970s. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large modern building with a large roof that juts out." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578555/original/file-20240228-24-bi5coh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578555/original/file-20240228-24-bi5coh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578555/original/file-20240228-24-bi5coh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578555/original/file-20240228-24-bi5coh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578555/original/file-20240228-24-bi5coh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578555/original/file-20240228-24-bi5coh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578555/original/file-20240228-24-bi5coh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Senedd in Cardiff.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cardiff-wales-united-kingdom-06-17-2335002765">meunierd/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Legacy</h2>
<p>In 1988, the campaign for a Welsh Assembly was <a href="https://academic.oup.com/manchester-scholarship-online/book/29790/chapter-abstract/251892249?redirectedFrom=fulltext">established</a> in Cardiff by Siân Caiach of Plaid Cymru and Jon Owen Jones of Labour. It was a direct descendant of this collaborative ethos, feeding an altogether more mature debate around Welsh devolution than had been seen in the 1970s. </p>
<p>For example, Ron Davies, an arch-devolutionist in 1990s Labour, <a href="https://www.iwa.wales/wp-content/media/2016/03/acceleratinghistory.pdf">had voted “no”</a> in 1979. This was predominantly because he saw devolution as a Trojan horse for Plaid. </p>
<p>However, seeing the consequences of the miners’ strike and Thatcherism on his constituency of Caerffili drove him towards a drastic re-evaluation of devolution as being a protective buffer for the people of Wales. He became leader of Welsh Labour in 1998, eventually joining Plaid in 2010.</p>
<p>Historian Martin Johnes <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-16315966">has described</a> Thatcher as an “unlikely architect of Welsh devolution”. Indeed, her inadvertent <a href="https://www.iwa.wales/agenda/2013/04/we-voted-labour-but-got-thatcher/">help</a> in orchestrating the Welsh Assembly rested in the forging of Labour and Plaid Cymru cooperation, with the miners’ strike as a watershed movement. </p>
<p>The strike remains a vivid memory in many Welsh communities. It stands as a reminder to 21st-century politicians that today’s Senedd (Welsh parliament) was built on cross-party cooperation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221358/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The strike saw different political factions uniting, which eventually led to a more collaborative form of politics in Wales.Mari Wiliam, Lecturer in Modern and Welsh History, Bangor UniversityMarc Collinson, Lecturer in Political History, Bangor UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2174302024-02-20T13:20:50Z2024-02-20T13:20:50ZCarbon offsets bring new investment to Appalachia’s coal fields, but most Appalachians aren’t benefiting<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571772/original/file-20240128-15-bsgb8q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C0%2C1305%2C840&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">For decades, railroad tracks carried coal from eastern Tennessee to power plants in the eastern U.S.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/appvoices/6853913378/in/album-72157629262715216/">Appalachian Voices</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Central Appalachia is home to the <a href="https://ww3.arb.ca.gov/cc/capandtrade/offsets/overview.pdf">third-largest concentration of forest carbon offsets</a> traded on the California carbon market. But while these projects bring new investments to Appalachia, most people in <a href="https://doi-org.utk.idm.oclc.org/10.1080/03066150.2022.2078710">Appalachia are not benefiting</a>.</p>
<p>The effect of this new economic activity is evident in the <a href="https://storymaps.com/stories/2f4984877e0d42cdbc424d107eefc3ba">Clearfork Valley</a>, a forested region of steep hills and meandering creeks on the Kentucky-Tennessee border. </p>
<p>Rural communities here once relied on coal mining jobs. As the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.exis.2021.100990">mines shut down</a>, with the last closing <a href="https://opensourcecoal.org/df_coal_production.php">in 2022</a>, the valley was left with thousands of acres of forests and strip-mined land but fewer ways to make a good living.</p>
<p><iframe id="AacNw" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/AacNw/7/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Today, corporate landowners and investment funds have placed most of that forest land into carbon offset projects – valuing the trees for their ability to absorb carbon dioxide emissions to help protect the climate. </p>
<p>These <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-street-firm-makes-a-1-8-billion-bet-on-forest-carbon-offset-11667390624">carbon offset projects can be lucrative</a> for the landowner, with proceeds that can run into the millions of dollars. Companies subject to California’s carbon emissions rules are willing to pay projects like these to essentially <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/compliance-offset-program">cancel out, or offset</a>, the companies’ carbon emissions. However, my research shows that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2022.2078710">few local residents</a> are benefiting. </p>
<p>The projects are part of <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/2021-04/losing-ground-final-4-15-21.pdf">a wider</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ruso.12210">growing trend</a> of investor-owners of rural land making money but providing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2017.1328305">little local employment, local investment or community involvement</a> in return.</p>
<h2>Few local jobs, little economic benefit</h2>
<p>The rise of carbon forest offset projects in Appalachia has coincided with the historic decline of the coal economy. </p>
<p>Central Appalachia lost 70% of its coal jobs from 2011 to 2023 as its <a href="https://opensourcecoal.org/df_coal_production.php">coal production fell by 75%</a> in that same period. As corporate landowners looked for new revenue streams, they found a burgeoning forest carbon offset market after California instituted a <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/cap-and-trade-program/about">forest carbon offset protocol</a> in 2011.</p>
<p>Much of the Clearfork Valley was originally owned by the American Association, a British coal corporation that <a href="https://www.press.uillinois.edu/books/?id=p009853">accumulated the land in the 1880s</a>. That property passed between other coal companies before NatureVest, a <a href="https://www.nature.org/en-us/about-us/who-we-are/how-we-work/finance-investing/naturevest/">climate change-driven investment firm</a> owned by The Nature Conservancy, created an investment fund to purchase the land in 2019. </p>
<p>The previous owner, a forestland investment company, had established carbon offsets on that land in 2015, making <a href="https://ww3.arb.ca.gov/cc/capandtrade/protocols/usforest/forestprotocol2015.pdf">a 125-year commitment</a> to retain or grow the forest carbon stock. When NatureVest purchased the land in 2019, it generated <a href="https://www.environmental-finance.com/content/awards/sustainable-investment-awards-2020/winners/impact-fund-of-the-year-the-nature-conservancys-sustainable-forestry-fund.html">at least US$20 million in proceeds</a> from the sale of additional offsets. The details of <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/cap-and-trade-program/program-data/summary-market-transfers-report">such transactions are typically private</a>, but offset sales can be structured in a number of ways. They might be one-time payments for existing credits, for example, or futures contracts for the potential of additional credits.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A map shows large areas of forest in several states that are on the carbon market." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571770/original/file-20240128-25-lydydm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571770/original/file-20240128-25-lydydm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571770/original/file-20240128-25-lydydm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571770/original/file-20240128-25-lydydm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571770/original/file-20240128-25-lydydm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571770/original/file-20240128-25-lydydm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571770/original/file-20240128-25-lydydm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Forest carbon offset projects in Central Appalachia that are on the California carbon market. The Clearfork Valley is on the Kentucky-Tennessee border in the lower left.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://webmaps.arb.ca.gov/ARBOCIssuanceMap/">California Air Resources Board, ESRI</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The investment fund is attempting to demonstrate that <a href="https://www.nature.org/en-us/about-us/where-we-work/united-states/kentucky/stories-in-kentucky/cumberland-forest">managing land to help protect the climate</a> can also generate revenue for investors. </p>
<p>In Appalachia, offset projects largely involve “improved forestry management.” These offsets <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16380">pay landowners to sequester</a> carbon in trees – additional to what they would have pulled in without the offset payment – while still allowing them to produce timber for sale. In practice, this often means letting trees stand for <a href="https://www.nature.org/content/dam/tnc/nature/en/documents/VA-Carbon-Sequestration-Infographic.pdf%22%22">longer rotations before cutting for timber</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00984-2">Recent research</a>, however, indicates that the carbon storage of improved forestry management projects may be getting <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15943">overcounted on the California market</a>, the largest compliance offset market in the Americas. <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/insider-4-reasons-why-jurisdictional-approach-redd-crediting-superior-project-based">Other approaches to carbon offsets</a> could produce better outcomes for people and the climate.</p>
<p>And while the landowners and investors profit, my research, including dozens of interviews with residents, has also found that former mining <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2022.2078710">communities in this valley have seen little return</a>. </p>
<p>The Nature Conservancy has offered <a href="https://www.nature.org/en-us/about-us/where-we-work/priority-landscapes/appalachians/stories/cumberland-forest-community-fund/">support to local communities</a>. But while the organization operates <a href="https://www.nature.org/en-us/about-us/where-we-work/priority-landscapes/appalachians/stories/cumberland-forest-community-fund/">a small grant program</a> from coal mining and gas drilling royalties it receives from the land, the investment in the local economy has been relatively small – <a href="https://www.nature.org/en-us/about-us/where-we-work/priority-landscapes/appalachians/stories/cumberland-forest-community-fund/">roughly $377,000</a> in the three states since 2019. Furthermore, while <a href="https://mtassociation.org/energy/middlesboro-community-center-adds-solar/">some communities have benefited</a>, these investments <a href="https://www.nature.org/en-us/about-us/where-we-work/priority-landscapes/appalachians/stories/cumberland-forest-community-fund/">have largely bypassed</a> struggling former coal communities in the Clearfork Valley in Tennessee. </p>
<p>Looking for other revenue sources on these lands, by 2022, The Nature Conservancy had also leased access to nearly <a href="https://www.nature.org/content/dam/tnc/nature/en/documents/Cumberland_Forest_2022_Impact_Report.pdf">150,000 acres of its Cumberland Forest Project</a>, including parts of the Clearfork Valley, to state agencies and outdoor recreation groups. As a result, permits and fees are often now required to enter much of the forestland.</p>
<p>As one interviewee told my co-author for our forthcoming book, “For three generations my family has been able to walk and use that land, but now I could be arrested for entering it without a permit.” </p>
<h2>The rise of TIMOs and climate ‘rentierism’</h2>
<p>While a century ago many of the landowners in Appalachia were coal companies and timber companies, today <a href="https://wvpolicy.org/who-owns-west-virginia-in-the-21st-century-2/">they are predominantly</a> <a href="https://doi-org.utk.idm.oclc.org/10.1177/0896920510378764">financialized timber investment management organizations, or TIMOs</a>. TIMOs are financial institutions that manage timberlands to generate returns for institutions, such as endowments and pension funds, and private investors. While NatureVest is more diversified than a TIMO, its timberland investments operate in a similar fashion.</p>
<p>The financial ownership of timberlands is part of the much wider trend of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/SER/mwi008">financialization of the United States economy</a>. Wall Street-based investors have become major owners of all sectors of the U.S. economy since the 1970s, from <a href="https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501750083/fields-of-gold/">agriculture</a> and <a href="https://www.scielo.br/j/gp/a/JdQdqWNHdn67pNLCJvkmnFr/?lang=en">manufacturing</a> to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ruso.12210">natural resources</a>.</p>
<p>Financial profits, however, often do not entail job creation or investments in infrastructure in the surrounding communities. Yet the investor-owned timberlands in Central Appalachia do generate <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-street-firm-makes-a-1-8-billion-bet-on-forest-carbon-offset-11667390624">millions of dollars in revenue for their investors</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The hills above a home have been strip mined, where forests once stood." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571771/original/file-20240128-29-8ffil5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571771/original/file-20240128-29-8ffil5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571771/original/file-20240128-29-8ffil5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571771/original/file-20240128-29-8ffil5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571771/original/file-20240128-29-8ffil5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571771/original/file-20240128-29-8ffil5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571771/original/file-20240128-29-8ffil5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Homes below a coal strip mine in Campbell County, Tennessee, home to part of the Clearfork Valley.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/appvoices/7000037829/in/album-72157629262715216/">Appalachian Voices via Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Political economists have diagnosed the trend of falling employment that accompanies increasing economic activity as partially the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/705396">result of growing rentierism</a>.</p>
<p>Rentierism is a term for <a href="https://doi-org.utk.idm.oclc.org/10.1177/0308518X19873007">generating income predominantly from rents</a> as opposed to income from production that employs people. Rural communities have acutely felt the effects of <a href="https://www.versobooks.com/products/871-rentier-capitalism">increasing rentierism in various sectors since the 1970s</a>.</p>
<p>Researchers have noted <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0896920510378764">growing trends of rentierism in forestland management</a>. Many TIMOs seek new revenue streams from timberlands outside of wood products and timbering, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2017.1328305">such as in conservation easements</a>. As firms such as <a href="https://c3newsmag.com/private-capital-is-funding-conservation-across-the-country/">NatureVest seek to generate income from controlling carbon stocks or conservation resources</a>, there is now a growing climate rentierism.</p>
<h2>Rural resentment and a crisis of democracy</h2>
<p>A robust body of research in <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691191669/the-left-behind">sociology</a> and <a href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=759xDwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PT8&ots=yOy_PiDU9P&sig=u67Pv8JrCjPN2c3DaHORhJgVXi4#v=onepage&q&f=false">political science</a> shows how the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2019.10.045">hollowing out of rural North American economies</a> has fed into a kind of <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/P/bo22879533.html">rural resentment</a>. Trust in government and democracy is particularly low in rural North America, and not only because of economic woes. As <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300215359/for-profit-democracy/">sociologist Loka Ashwood documents</a>, it is also because many rural residents believe that the government helps corporations profit at the expense of people.</p>
<p>Carbon offsets in Appalachia, unfortunately, fit within these troubling trends. Government regulation in California generates sizable revenue for corporate landowners, while the rural communities see themselves locked out of the economy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217430/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gabe Schwartzman received funding from the National Science Foundation. He is a board member of the Southern Connected Communities Project (SCCP), a non-profit based in East Tennessee, and former board member of Statewide Organizing for Community eMpowerment (SOCM). </span></em></p>Large parts of Appalachia’s forests, once owned by coal companies, now make money for investors by storing carbon. But the results bring few jobs or sizable investments for residents.Gabe Schwartzman, Assistant Professor of Geography and Sustainability, University of TennesseeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2217792024-02-18T07:06:55Z2024-02-18T07:06:55ZCorruption and clean energy in South Africa: economic model shows trust in government is linked to takeup of renewables<p>South Africa <a href="https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/south-africa-energy#:%7E:text=Current%20Status%3A,from%20renewables%20will%20grow%20rapidly.">relies heavily</a> on energy from coal-fired power stations, which emit large quantities of carbon. But making the transition to greater use of renewable energies, such as solar, is being hampered by a number of factors. Chief among them is corruption, which is affecting the quality of institutions.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15567249.2023.2291433">a recent paper</a> I set out how perceptions of corruption in the country’s institutions have had a huge impact on the country’s transition to clean energy. This is particularly true of institutions involved in energy, such as the state power utility Eskom.</p>
<p>My findings were based on an econometric model we developed, based on economic theory. It highlighted how perceptions of corruption and the effectiveness of government institutions influenced attitudes towards the country’s energy transition efforts. </p>
<p>Econometrics combines statistics, mathematical models and economic theories to understand and model economic problems. It uncovers the relationships and effects of various economic elements. </p>
<p>The model showed that greater trust in institutions would make people, policymakers and businesses more inclined to adopt renewable energy practices. </p>
<p>The study also found that the quality of the regulatory framework and government’s effectiveness shaped people’s views. This in turn affected decisions around adding renewable energy to the supply mix.</p>
<p>These findings matter because South Africa’s energy transition faces <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-south-africa-pioneered-plans-to-transition-to-renewable-energy-what-went-wrong-218851">a host of challenges</a>. These range from technical and financial challenges to broader political, socioeconomic and institutional hurdles. The key to a successful energy transition is policy that’s aligned with what the environment and the society need. It’s essential to improve institutional quality, put anti-corruption procedures in place and have clear rules. </p>
<h2>Energy mix and vision</h2>
<p>The energy situation in South Africa has changed significantly <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-energy-source-sub?time=earliest..2022&country=%7EZAF">since the mid-1990s</a>. Then, coal made up 73%-76% of the primary energy mix. Oil made up 21%-22%.</p>
<p>By 2022, coal’s share had fallen to almost 69%. The share of renewable energy sources had increased to roughly 2.3%. </p>
<p>Our study supports <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421520306145?casa_token=DpHWzhI7uCUAAAAA:leZ-aq2qmkX6h2AJbtSY5QN-0p9nlTC59L7gMJJgNRHUoJb1qEqY3bvKWt_83rXQhJ_PPe-BwQ">others</a> which show that 2008 was a turning point for the South African economy, particularly the energy sector. The factors involved included:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the global financial crisis</p></li>
<li><p>changes in government policies, such as <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/socar092509a">monetary policies</a> </p></li>
<li><p>leadership changes in the country and at Eskom</p></li>
<li><p>power cuts and rising electricity prices </p></li>
<li><p>a downturn in the economy. </p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Institutions and economic implications</h2>
<p>This research was designed to understand the impact of national policies, governmental efficiency and past dependency on fossil fuel. I based the models on historical data about the energy mix and governance scores.</p>
<p>The analysis focused on the share of renewable energy in South Africa’s total final energy consumption. I used this as a proxy for the nation’s shift to cleaner energy. </p>
<p>Institutional quality is a complex concept. In our modelling exercise we therefore used three of the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/worldwide-governance-indicators">World Governance Indicators</a> to stand for institutional quality: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>corruption perception index </p></li>
<li><p>regulatory quality – perceptions of government’s ability to make regulations that support private sector development </p></li>
<li><p>government effectiveness – perceptions of the quality and trustworthiness of public services. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>The first model confirmed a positive relationship between perceptions of corruption-free institutions and the rollout of renewable energy. More renewable energy has been produced when governance scores have been highest.</p>
<p>The second model showed that transparent and effective regulation potentially hindered the adoption of cleaner alternatives. This can be explained by the fact that regulatory decisions have mostly supported the country’s energy dependence on fossil fuels. The energy markets, especially those for electricity, are doing better because of more sensible, open, and high-quality rules. As a result, this reduced the desire to switch to more environmentally friendly, renewable options.</p>
<p>Finally, the third model indicated a negative relationship between higher government effectiveness and the share of renewable energy. Close ties between stable governments and the conventional energy sector are common. This can influence policy choices. If these well-established businesses oppose reforms that jeopardise their interests – much like the fossil fuel sector does – the promotion of renewable energy sources may suffer. </p>
<p>I also saw that there had been a slow rate of change in renewable energy share. That can be attributed to slow procurement processes, coupled with potential lobbying and corruptive practices. </p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>South Africa has a new <a href="https://www.dmr.gov.za/Portals/0/Resources/Documents%20for%20Public%20Comments/IRP%202023%20%5BINTEGRATED%20RESOURCE%20PLAN%5D/Publication%20for%20comments%20Integrated%20Resource%20Plan%202023.pdf?ver=2024-01-05-134833-383">Integrated Resource Plan 2023</a> which proposes a near-term (2023-2030) plan that combines gas, solar, wind and battery storage. </p>
<p>But to boost the adoption of cleaner energy, South Africa needs to take urgent action to fight corruption and improve confidence in the country’s institutions. </p>
<p>Policymakers should focus first on making regulatory changes. Efficient procurement procedures and honest practices would speed up the shift to renewables. What’s needed are streamlined procurement, greater transparency and more competition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221779/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roula Inglesi-Lotz receives funding from the National Research Foundation (NRF).</span></em></p>The key to a successful energy transition away from coal is good institutional quality supported by anti-corruption procedures and clear rules.Roula Inglesi-Lotz, Professor of Economics, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2151502023-12-31T20:26:22Z2023-12-31T20:26:22ZEconomically, Australia has been lucky – what matters now is what we do next<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564120/original/file-20231207-15-e6h1m6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=528%2C108%2C473%2C274&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia has long thought of itself as the lucky country.</p>
<p>Whenever its economy has started to falter, a commodity boom has usually come along to restore prosperity… until in the 1980s, when the rest of the world failed to rescue us, and we embarked on a decade of reform. </p>
<p>I am afraid the world is going to fail to come to our rescue once again, and this time it’ll be harder to get a boost from reform because the easy reforms have already been done.</p>
<p>Here’s how I see our history from the earliest days of colonisation.</p>
<h2>Exports kept making Australia rich</h2>
<p>For most of those two or so centuries, we have been a <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/australias-trade-since-federation.pdf">commodity exporter</a>, at first specialising in wool and wheat (mainly for the United Kingdom) and later specialising in minerals (initially for Japan).</p>
<p>We had to shift our focus quickly when the United Kingdom joined the European Economic Community in 1973. </p>
<p>Fortunately for us, Japan had surpassed the United Kingdom as our biggest customer the year before, in 1972, as our exports of minerals built steadily following the <a href="https://www.robertmenziesinstitute.org.au/on-this-day/australia-japan-commerce-agreement">Australia-Japan Commerce Agreement</a> signed in 1957.</p>
<p>Taiwan and South Korea later emulated Japan, buying our coal, iron ore and bauxite to modernise their cities as well as for manufacturing.</p>
<p>Demand for these commodities kept building until the late 1970s when it slowed as the East Asian economies matured. </p>
<h2>Then came economic reform, and China</h2>
<p>Demand stayed subdued throughout the 1980s and 1990s as Australia got on with economic reform, boosting the economy by letting in foreign banks, floating the dollar, cutting tariffs, removing cosy regulations and privatising enterprises in fields as diverse as airlines, airports, banking, telecommunications and energy.</p>
<p>By the early 2000s, China was a member of the World Trade Organisation and began demanding Australian iron ore and later coal and education, and the old pattern of commodity booms repeated itself, except this time bigger.</p>
<p>The usual pattern is growth in demand for Australian resources followed by a boom in foreign investment to develop those resources that pushes up the value of the dollar and boosts Australia’s buying power but makes its other exports less competitive.</p>
<p>When demand for resources falls, as is about to happen as China’s economy matures, Australians need to tighten their belts.</p>
<p>That’s unless Australia can find another big market or unleash another wave of economic reform.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-population-is-now-inexorably-shrinking-bringing-forward-the-day-the-planets-population-turns-down-198061">China's population is now inexorably shrinking, bringing forward the day the planet's population turns down</a>
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<h2>China is a hard act to follow</h2>
<p>China’s size makes the export boom we have just had hard to repeat. India has the population and an infrastructure deficit, but more of its own resources, and a more inward-focused growth strategy. </p>
<p>Indonesia has strong growth prospects, but faces challenges investing in infrastructure at scale in its densely populated chain of islands. And Australia faces competition from other commodity exporters. To keep prices high we need global demand to at least keep pace with potential supply. </p>
<p>Yet the International Monetary Fund is <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO">downgrading</a> its global growth forecasts. </p>
<p>Geopolitical tensions, rising populism and protectionist sentiments, high debt levels and rising rates of natural disasters and climate-related disruptions are all downside risks for global growth, and, with this, the demand for commodities.</p>
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<p>The one bright spot is the minerals needed for the <a href="https://www.oecd.org/trade/topics/global-value-chains-and-trade/documents/clean-energy-supply-chains-OECD-G7-202305.pdf">energy transition</a>, where demand exceeds forecast supply. </p>
<p>But Australia has many competitors in the supply of many of these minerals, and we failed to get a head start on the clean energy approaches to processing that would have given us an early advantage.</p>
<h2>We’ll need reforms, but more subtle ones</h2>
<p>So what are our options? </p>
<p>The reforms of the Hawke and Keating governments are still with us, but the declining role of government in the production of goods and services and a generally light-handed approach to regulation seems to have failed to prevent a <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-10/p2022-325290-productivity-growth.pdf">decline in competition</a> and, with it, a decline in <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/andrew-leigh-2022/speeches/fh-gruen-lecture-australian-national-university-canberra">economic dynamism</a>.</p>
<p>While some of the government’s own actions might have dampened competition, it is entirely possible that the government’s withdrawal from all sorts of markets might be allowing those markets to become more concentrated.</p>
<p>It might even be that the government needs to change course again and reenter or better regulate some markets in order to force providers to lift their games. </p>
<p>While renationalisations are neither viable nor sensible, the energy transition and the projected growth of the care sector offer opportunities to reconsider the balance between the roles of government and the private sector.</p>
<p>The recently-announced <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/review/competition-review-2023">Competition Review</a> chaired by Kerry Schott is a step in the right direction.</p>
<p>The right solutions might be more subtle than those that worked in the 1980s. None of them should be off the table.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215150/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jenny Gordon is an Honorary Professor at the Australian National University and a non-resident fellow at the Lowy Institute. She serves on the Asian Development Bank Institute Advisory Council.</span></em></p>As China winds down it demand for Australian resources, we will be forced to reply once again on economic reform, and the easy options have been taken.Jenny Gordon, Honorary Professor, Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2199062023-12-15T02:16:58Z2023-12-15T02:16:58ZCOP28 deal confirms what Australia already knows: coal is out of vogue and out of time<p>At the COP28 climate summit in Dubai this week, nations <a href="https://theconversation.com/hard-fought-cop28-agreement-suggests-the-days-of-fossil-fuels-are-numbered-but-climate-catastrophe-is-not-yet-averted-219597">agreed</a> to “transition away” from coal, oil and gas . After 30 years of COP meetings, the world has finally committed to weaning itself from these carbon-based drivers of climate change.</p>
<p>As Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/13/the-age-of-fossil-fuels-will-end-australias-chris-bowen-hails-cop28-agreement">told the media</a>, the deal “sends a signal to the world’s markets, investors and businesses that this is the direction of travel for countries right around the world.”</p>
<p>This COP statement is the first to name and shame <em>all</em> carbon-based fuels driving the climate crisis – not just coal, which has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-flinched-on-phasing-out-all-fossil-fuels-whats-next-for-the-fight-to-keep-them-in-the-ground-194941">mentioned</a> in previous COP agreements, but also oil and gas. </p>
<p>The deal is a collective global aspiration rather than a legally binding agreement. Even so, it should put an end to the idea that burning carbon – both in Australia and elsewhere – can continue on a significant scale beyond 2050. </p>
<h2>Renewables on the rise</h2>
<p>The statement on carbon-based fuels is significant, but largely symbolic. In Australia, coal as a fuel has long been on the way out. Improved domestic energy efficiency has <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/energy-data/australian-energy-statistics/energy-consumption#:%7E:text=Australia%27s%20energy%20consumption%20fell%200.1,2021%2D22%20was%207%20PJ.">reduced energy consumption</a>, even as the economy has grown. Most of this has come at the expense of coal – a trend likely to continue as electricity generation moves further towards renewables. </p>
<p>As the below table shows, starting from a base of almost zero, solar and wind energy generation has risen at startling annual rates over the last decade: 30% for solar and 15% for wind. Although shares of total energy consumption are still fairly small, these growth rates imply solar and wind will generate more energy than coal by the end of the decade.</p>
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<p>Australia’s consumption of oil, mostly in the form of imported petrol and diesel fuel, has remained largely steady over the past decade. Successive federal governments have dithered on the transition to electric vehicles. But if Australia is to get anywhere near the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050, it must now tackle the transport sector <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/transport#:%7E:text=Driving%20The%20Nation-,National%20collaboration%20on%20EVs,10%25%20of%20Australia%27s%20total%20emissions.">which in 2022</a> produced 19% of Australia’s emissions – more than half from passenger and light commercial vehicles.</p>
<p>Given the absence of a domestic motor vehicle industry in Australia, the current government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/two-charts-in-australias-2023-climate-statement-show-we-are-way-off-track-for-net-zero-by-2050-218930">inaction on electric vehicles</a> is surprising. It appears driven in part by a fear of populist campaigns by the Coalition and others about the effects on motorists. Who could forget claims in 2019 by then-Prime Minister Scott Morrison that electric vehicles would “end the weekend […] It’s not going to tow your trailer. It’s not going to tow your boat. It’s not going to get you out to your favourite camping spot” – claims since proven to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-utes-can-now-power-the-weekend-and-the-work-week-199600">incorrect</a>.</p>
<p>Also in play is the political lobbying power of the retail motor industry, backed by foreign car manufacturers keen to maintain a market for their remaining supply of petrol-driven vehicles.</p>
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<h2>The myth of carbon capture and storage</h2>
<p>The final text also called for the acceleration of “zero and low emission technologies”. Controversially, this includes removal technologies such as carbon capture and storage, which involves trapping, transporting and storing greenhouse gas emissions from facilities such as coal-fired power stations and gas plants.</p>
<p>The inclusion of this technology was criticised by many observers as a loophole which would allow polluting, inefficient industries to continue. But it is better understood as a symbolic sop to the coal, oil and gas industries, which have long pinned their hopes of staying in business on the idea of burying the carbon they emit. </p>
<p>In reality, carbon capture and storage is a <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/carbon-capture-and-storage-fuels-more-net-zero-fraud/">proven failure</a>. The Gorgon gas project on the Barrow Island nature reserve, off Western Australia’s Pilbara coast, has stored <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/world-s-biggest-carbon-storage-project-off-wa-coast-burying-only-a-third-of-what-it-promised-to-20231113-p5ejm4.html">barely a third</a> of the targeted amount of carbon, forcing the proponents to <a href="https://australia.chevron.com/news/2022/acquisition-and-surrender-of-offsets-complete#:%7E:text=PERTH%2C%20Western%20Australia%2C%2015%20July,facility%20over%20the%20five%2Dyear">buy carbon offsets</a> instead (themselves a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/24/carbon-offsets-are-a-licence-to-pollute">dubious option</a>). Similarly, the only operating project capturing emissions from a coal-fired power plant, at <a href="https://ieefa.org/resources/carbon-capture-remains-risky-investment-achieving-decarbonisation">Boundary Dam in Canada</a>, has under-performed on carbon capture capacity by a huge margin.</p>
<p>So while carbon-capture is theoretically available as an option for new projects, in most cases it will prove either technically impossible or <a href="https://www.atse.org.au/news-and-events/article/does-ccs-make-economic-sense/">economically infeasible</a>. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-utes-can-now-power-the-weekend-and-the-work-week-199600">Electric utes can now power the weekend – and the work week</a>
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<h2>Australia faces a choice on energy exports</h2>
<p>The COP28 statement’s call for an “urgent and equitable transition to renewable energy” presents opportunities for Australia. As Bowen <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/the-age-of-fossil-fuels-will-end-bowen-says-after-cop28-win-20231213-p5ercz">acknowledged</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Australia wants to be a renewable energy powerhouse, we want to create the energy for ourselves, and for our region and for the world […] The COP decision today gives us a very good ecosystem in which to develop that plan.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But of course, “that plan” is totally inconsistent with the plans of the coal and gas industries, which are announcing <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-116-new-coal-oil-and-gas-projects-equate-to-215-new-coal-power-stations-202135">new projects</a> intended to operate well into the second half of this century. By <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/case-for-gas-as-transition-fuel-falling-apart-on-both-economic-and-environmental-costs/">backing</a> these projects, the federal government is essentially betting that the aspirations of the COP28 statement will turn out to be just wishful thinking, and that Australia can profit from a world of catastrophic global heating.</p>
<p>Australia must now decide what kind of energy superpower it wants to be: the home of a sustainable future, or the last refuge of coal and gas extraction.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219906/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority</span></em></p>The deal is a global aspiration, not a legally binding agreement. But it should end the idea that burning carbon – in Australia and elsewhere – can continue on a significant scale beyond 2050.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2188252023-12-11T02:29:32Z2023-12-11T02:29:32ZCOP28: Why China’s clean energy boom matters for global climate action<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564141/original/file-20231207-27-abbr9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=845%2C19%2C4219%2C2508&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With an energy-hungry economy, an historic reliance on coal and vast manufacturing enterprises, China is the world’s <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/10/12/china-s-transition-to-a-low-carbon-economy-and-climate-resilience-needs-shifts-in-resources-and-technologies">single largest emitter</a>, accounting for 27% of the world’s carbon dioxide and a third of all greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>But China is also the world’s largest manufacturer of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-will-dominate-solar-supply-chain-years-wood-mackenzie-2023-11-07/">solar panels</a>
and <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/Chinese-manufacturers-dominate-wind-power-taking-60-of-global-market">wind turbines</a>. Domestically, it is installing green power at a rate the world has never seen. This year alone, China built enough solar, wind, hydro and nuclear capacity to cover the entire electricity consumption of France. Next year, we may see something even more remarkable – the population giant’s <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-emissions-set-to-fall-in-2024-after-record-growth-in-clean-energy/">first ever drop in emissions</a> from the power sector. </p>
<p>The COP28 climate talks began well, buoyed by November’s <a href="https://www.state.gov/sunnylands-statement-on-enhancing-cooperation-to-address-the-climate-crisis">Sunnyland Statement</a> between China and the United States, the second largest emitter. At previous climate talks, US-China cooperation has been lacking. But this time, they’re largely on the same page. </p>
<p>The statement outlined joint support for global tripling of renewable energy by 2030, tackling methane and plastic pollution, and a transition away from fossil fuels.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564168/original/file-20231207-21-c3yki9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="coal barge in middle of shanghai" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564168/original/file-20231207-21-c3yki9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564168/original/file-20231207-21-c3yki9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564168/original/file-20231207-21-c3yki9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564168/original/file-20231207-21-c3yki9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564168/original/file-20231207-21-c3yki9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564168/original/file-20231207-21-c3yki9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564168/original/file-20231207-21-c3yki9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Coal has fuelled China’s rapid rise.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The urgency of now</h2>
<p>China has been looking for better coordination with the US on climate since US President Joe Biden took office. Climate is an area where these competing major powers can cooperate. </p>
<p>The COP28 talks in Dubai – meant to finish tomorrow – offer a window for joint action. Next year, the US could elect a different president with very different views on climate. China’s well-regarded veteran special climate envoy, Xie Zhenhua, is about to retire. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-renewed-china-us-cooperation-bodes-well-for-climate-action-218394">Why renewed China-US cooperation bodes well for climate action</a>
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<p>In these talks, China – the world’s top oil importer – is looking for a compromise solution on the tense debate over fossil fuels. The world’s cartel of oil producing countries, OPEC, has called for focusing on emissions reduction rather than fossil-fuel phase out in the declaration. Xie and his team are trying to find a middle ground to <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/china-pours-oil-on-troubled-cop28-waters/news-story/fb2ffb77ec75b502abd71c47ff204350">ensure a final deal</a>.</p>
<p>China has long been criticised for its continuing <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/02/business/china-solar-energy-cop-28.html">coal-fired power plant expansion</a>. It has the world’s largest coal power fleet, and approved another 106 gigawatts worth of new coal plants just last year – the equivalent of two a week. But the five major state-owned power companies are already burdened by <a href="https://www.cec.org.cn/detail/index.html?3-322625">heavy financial losses</a>. </p>
<p>Why build dirty and clean? It’s a longstanding national policy: build sufficient baseload supply first while expanding renewable capacities. But at COP28, Xie said <a href="https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202312/11/WS65764846a31040ac301a70af.html">something new</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>[China will] strive to replace fossil fuels with renewable energy in a gradual manner. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>A country of engineers</h2>
<p>In developed countries, much clean energy work is driven by energy economists, who use incentives to change behaviour. </p>
<p>China is a country of engineers, who see these challenges as technical rather than economic. </p>
<p>In 2007, China released a <a href="https://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2007-06/08/content_641704.htm">national action plan</a> on climate, calling for technological solutions to the climate problem. Private and state-owned companies responded strongly.</p>
<p>Fifteen years later, China is in the lead in every low-carbon category. Its total installed renewable capacity is staggering, accounting for a <a href="https://www.irena.org/Publications/2023/Jul/Renewable-energy-statistics-2023">third of the world’s total</a>, and it is leading in electric vehicle production and sales. </p>
<p>In 2023, low-carbon sources such as hydro, wind, solar, bioenergy and nuclear <a href="https://www.cec.org.cn/detail/index.html?3-326139">made up over 53%</a> of China’s electricity generating capacity. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564162/original/file-20231207-19-cp062j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="ship building wind turbines in the sea" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564162/original/file-20231207-19-cp062j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564162/original/file-20231207-19-cp062j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564162/original/file-20231207-19-cp062j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564162/original/file-20231207-19-cp062j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564162/original/file-20231207-19-cp062j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564162/original/file-20231207-19-cp062j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564162/original/file-20231207-19-cp062j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">China has approached its record-breaking renewable roll-out methodically.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How did China boost clean energy so fast?</h2>
<p>China’s huge domestic market and large-scale deployment of wind and solar contribute greatly to <a href="https://www.irena.org/Publications/2023/Aug/Renewable-Power-Generation-Costs-in-2022">plummeting renewable costs</a>. Steadily lowering costs means green energy becomes viable for developing countries. </p>
<p>In 2012, a large team from China Power Investment Corporation arrived in the high desert in Qinghai province and <a href="https://tv.cctv.com/2023/11/26/VIDEkALg8IAgspyKmDBRVaSU231126.shtml?spm=C45404.PDzt747gf9Yc.EEoQCy1O5BTV.76">began building 15.7 GW</a> worth of solar across 345 square kilometres. </p>
<p>It was here that China first figured out how to make intermittent power reliable. Excess power was sent to a hydropower station 40km away and used to pump water uphill. At night, the water would flow back down through the turbines. Technologies developed here are now being used in other large-scale hybrid projects, such as hydro-solar, wind-solar and wind-solar-hydro projects. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564170/original/file-20231207-23-9o4g8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="china desert solar farm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564170/original/file-20231207-23-9o4g8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564170/original/file-20231207-23-9o4g8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564170/original/file-20231207-23-9o4g8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564170/original/file-20231207-23-9o4g8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564170/original/file-20231207-23-9o4g8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564170/original/file-20231207-23-9o4g8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564170/original/file-20231207-23-9o4g8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Huge solar farms carpet the desert in Qinghai – and new work opens the door to revegetating in the shade of the panels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 2022, the government announced plans to install 500 GW worth of solar, onshore and offshore wind projects in the Gobi Desert across Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu provinces. </p>
<p>These are intended to not only supercharge China’s clean energy supply, but to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038092X23002232">tackle desert expansion</a>. Solar panels stabilise the movement of sand and absorb sunlight, reducing evaporation of scarce water and giving plants a better chance at survival. This knowledge, too, came from the Qinghai solar farms, where plants began growing in the shade.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564722/original/file-20231211-19-9zavph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="map of china showing gobi and Taklamakan deserts" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564722/original/file-20231211-19-9zavph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564722/original/file-20231211-19-9zavph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564722/original/file-20231211-19-9zavph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564722/original/file-20231211-19-9zavph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564722/original/file-20231211-19-9zavph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564722/original/file-20231211-19-9zavph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564722/original/file-20231211-19-9zavph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Plenty of room for solar: China’s two major deserts, the Gobi and Taklamakan, are home to more and more solar.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:GobiTaklamakanMap.jpg">TheDrive/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>China’s focus on technology has given it <a href="https://news.cgtn.com/news/2023-07-09/China-s-mega-1-000-MW-photovoltaic-power-station-connected-to-grid-1libo36Jv5S/index.html">combined solar and salt farms</a>, floating solar power plants and <a href="https://www.irena.org/Publications/2023/Nov/IRENA-EPO-Offshore-Wind-Energy-Patent-Insight-Report">energy storage</a> ranging from batteries to compressed air to kinetic flywheels and hydrogen. </p>
<p>While the US and China cooperate at COP28, competition is not far away. China already dominates many clean energy technologies, but the US is trying to catch up through the <a href="https://www.energy.gov/lpo/inflation-reduction-act-2022">massive green spend</a> in last year’s Inflation Reduction Act. </p>
<p>According to the International Energy Agency, half of all emissions cuts needed to achieve net-zero by 2050 <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050">will come from technologies</a> currently at demonstration or prototype phase. These include cheap green hydrogen, next generation nuclear, next generation solar and wind, and functioning carbon capture and storage for remaining fossil fuel use. </p>
<h2>What has China achieved at COP28?</h2>
<p>China is <a href="https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202312/11/WS65764846a31040ac301a70af.html">backing global calls</a> to triple renewable capacity by 2030 and has agreed to tackle methane emissions, a particularly potent greenhouse gas. </p>
<p>China is far behind energy efficiency – it uses about 50% more per unit of GDP than in the US, and double that of Japan. It has not invested in energy efficiency as it has in other low-carbon areas. </p>
<p>This could change. US and China agreed in November to restart joint energy efficiency work on industry, buildings, transportation, and equipment, seen as harder areas to cut emissions. </p>
<p>At COP28, we will likely see states agree to <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/global-renewables-and-energy-efficiency-pledge">double the rate</a> of energy efficiency improvement from 2% to 4% a year by 2030. It remains to be seen whether China will join them. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Correction: an earlier version of this article stated 53% of China’s electricity came from low carbon sources. That figure refers to capacity not generation.</em> </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/matter-of-national-destiny-chinas-energy-crisis-sees-the-worlds-top-emitter-investing-in-more-coal-189142">'Matter of national destiny': China’s energy crisis sees the world’s top emitter investing in more coal</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218825/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Xu Yi-chong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>This year, China has built renewables at a truly staggering pace. But can its tech-first approach actually cut emissions – and find common ground at COP28?Xu Yi-chong, Professor of Governance and Public Policy, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2182312023-11-23T19:04:01Z2023-11-23T19:04:01ZPollution from coal power plants contributes to far more deaths than scientists realized, study shows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560874/original/file-20231121-4173-worc70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C107%2C5083%2C3435&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Kids jump on a trampoline as steam rises from a coal power plant in Adamsville, Ala., in 2021. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/kids-jump-on-a-trampoline-at-their-grandparents-home-as-news-photo/1232409457?adppopup=true"> Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Air pollution particles from coal-fired power plants are more harmful to human health than many experts realized, and it’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adf4915">more than twice as likely to contribute to premature deaths</a> as air pollution particles from other sources, new research demonstrates.</p>
<p>In the study, published in the journal Science, colleagues and I mapped how U.S. coal power plant emissions traveled through the atmosphere, then linked each power plant’s emissions with death records of Americans over 65 years old on Medicare.</p>
<p>Our results suggest that air pollutants released from coal power plants were associated with nearly half a million premature deaths of elderly Americans from 1999 to 2020.</p>
<p>It’s a staggering number, but the study also has good news: Annual deaths associated with U.S. coal power plants have fallen sharply since the mid-2000s as <a href="https://theconversation.com/3-reasons-us-coal-power-is-disappearing-and-a-supreme-court-ruling-wont-save-it-187254">federal regulations compelled operators</a> to install emissions scrubbers and many utilities shut down coal plants entirely.</p>
<p>In 1999, 55,000 deaths were attributable to coal air pollution in the U.S., according to our findings. By 2020, that number had fallen to 1,600.</p>
<figure><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/2941/lucas-maps-GIF5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=720&fit=crop&dpr=2"><figcaption> How PM2.5 levels from coal power plants in the U.S. have declined since 1999 as more plants installed pollution-control devices or shut down. Lucas Henneman.</figcaption></figure>
<p>In the U.S., coal is being displaced by natural gas and renewable energy for generating electricity. Globally, however, coal use is <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2022">projected to increase</a> in coming years. That makes our results all the more urgent for global decision-makers to understand as they develop future policies.</p>
<h2>Coal air pollution: What makes it so bad?</h2>
<p>A landmark study in the 1990s, known as the <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM199312093292401">Harvard Six Cities Study</a>, linked tiny airborne particles called PM2.5 to increased risk of early death. Other studies have since linked PM2.5 to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/nano12152656">lung and heart disease, cancer</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2023.3300">dementia</a> and other diseases. </p>
<p>Following that research, the Environmental Protection Agency <a href="https://www.epa.gov/pm-pollution/timeline-particulate-matter-pm-national-ambient-air-quality-standards-naaqs">began regulating PM2.5 concentrations in 1997</a> and has lowered the acceptable limit over time.</p>
<p>PM2.5 – particles small enough to be inhaled deep into our lungs – comes from several different sources, including gasoline combustion in vehicles and smoke from wood fires and power plants. It is <a href="https://www.epa.gov/pm-pollution/particulate-matter-pm-basics#PM">made up of many</a> different chemicals.</p>
<p>Coal is also a mix of many chemicals – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.04.070">carbon, hydrogen, sulfur, even metals</a>. When coal is burned, <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/coal/coal-and-the-environment.php">all of these chemicals</a> are emitted to the atmosphere either as gases or particles. Once there, they are transported by the wind and interact with other chemicals already in the atmosphere.</p>
<p>As a result, anyone downwind of a coal plant may be breathing a complex cocktail of chemicals, each with its own potential effects on human health.</p>
<figure><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/2934/lucas-gif1.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=720&fit=crop&dpr=2"><figcaption> Two months of emissions from Plant Bowen, a coal-fired power station near Atlanta, show how wind influences the spread of air pollution. Lucas Henneman.</figcaption></figure>
<h2>Tracking coal PM2.5</h2>
<p>To understand the risks coal emissions pose to human health, we tracked how sulfur dioxide emissions from each of the 480 largest U.S. coal power plants operating at any point since 1999 traveled with the wind and turned into tiny particles – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adf4915">coal PM2.5</a>. We used sulfur dioxide because of its known health effects and drastic decreases in emissions over the study period.</p>
<p>We then used a statistical model to link coal PM2.5 exposure to Medicare records of nearly 70 million people from 1999 to 2020. This model allowed us to calculate the number of deaths associated with coal PM2.5.</p>
<p>In our statistical model, we controlled for other pollution sources and accounted for many other known risk factors, like smoking status, local meteorology and income level. We tested multiple statistical approaches that all yielded consistent results. We compared the results of our statistical model with <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aba5692">previous results</a> testing the health impacts of PM2.5 from other sources and found that PM2.5 from coal is twice as harmful as PM2.5 from all other sources.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two people stand outside an older brick home with power plant smokestacks in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561153/original/file-20231122-17-wwzsob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561153/original/file-20231122-17-wwzsob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561153/original/file-20231122-17-wwzsob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561153/original/file-20231122-17-wwzsob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561153/original/file-20231122-17-wwzsob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561153/original/file-20231122-17-wwzsob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561153/original/file-20231122-17-wwzsob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Residents living near the Cheswick coal-fired power plant in Springdale, Pa., publicly complained about the amount of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and coal particles from the plant for years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/marti-blake-speaks-to-the-postman-in-front-of-the-smoke-news-photo/874051624">Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The number of deaths associated with individual power plants depended on multiple factors – how much the plant emits, which way the wind blows and how many people breathe in the pollution. Unfortunately, U.S. utilities located many of their plants upwind of major population centers on the East Coast. This siting amplified these plants’ impacts.</p>
<p>In an <a href="https://cpieatgt.github.io/cpie/">interactive online tool</a>, users can look up our estimates of annual deaths associated with each U.S. power plant and also see how those numbers have fallen over time at most U.S. coal plants.</p>
<h2>A US success story and the global future of coal</h2>
<p>Engineers have been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ep.670200410">designing effective scrubbers</a> and other pollution-control devices that can reduce pollution from coal-fired power plants for several years. And the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/Cross-State-Air-Pollution/overview-cross-state-air-pollution-rule-csapr">EPA has rules</a> specifically to encourage utilities that used coal to install them, and most facilities that did not install scrubbers have shut down.</p>
<p>The results have been dramatic: Sulfur dioxide emissions <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ep.670200410">decreased about 90%</a> in facilities that reported installing scrubbers. Nationwide, sulfur dioxide emissions decreased 95% since 1999. According to our tally, deaths attributable to each facility that installed a scrubber or shut down decreased drastically.</p>
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<p>As advances in fracking techniques reduced the cost of natural gas, and regulations made running coal plants more expensive, <a href="https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S2010007819500088">utilities began replacing coal with natural gas</a> plants and renewable energy. The shift to natural gas – a cleaner-burning fossil fuel than coal but still a greenhouse gas <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-announces-a-sweeping-methane-plan-heres-why-cutting-the-greenhouse-gas-is-crucial-for-protecting-climate-and-health-168220">contributing to climate change</a> – led to even further air pollution reductions.</p>
<p>Today, coal contributes about 27% of electricity in the U.S., <a href="https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T02.06#/?f=A">down from 56% in 1999</a>.</p>
<p>Globally, however, the outlook for coal is mixed. While the U.S. and other nations are headed toward a future with substantially less coal, the International Energy Agency <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2022">expects global coal use to increase</a> through at least 2025.</p>
<p>Our study and others like it make clear that increases in coal use will harm human health and the climate. Making full use of emissions controls and a turn toward renewables are surefire ways to reduce coal’s negative impacts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218231/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lucas Henneman receives funding from the Health Effects Institute, the National Institute of Health, and the Environmental Protection Agency.</span></em></p>The longest-running study of its kind reviewed death records in the path of pollution from coal-fired power plants. The numbers are staggering − but also falling fast as US coal plants close.Lucas Henneman, Assistant Professor of Engineering, George Mason UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2163732023-10-29T19:12:04Z2023-10-29T19:12:04ZAustralia’s new dawn: becoming a green superpower with a big role in cutting global emissions<p>Australia has three ways it can help reduce world greenhouse emissions, the only reduction that matters in tackling climate change.</p>
<p>First, we can remove emissions from our economy. This will reduce global emissions <a href="https://www.aofm.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-11-28/Aust%20Govt%20CC%20Actions%20Update%20November%202022_1.pdf">by just 1.3%</a>, but it must be done so we share the transition burden with other countries. </p>
<p>Second, we can stop approving new coal and gas projects, which will raise the cost of these products and so reduce world demand for them to some extent. This would have an important demonstration effect, although the reduction in world emissions may be less than some advocates think.</p>
<p>Third, we can quickly pursue industries in which Australia has a clear comparative advantage in a net-zero world. Of any country, Australia is probably best placed to produce <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6BLjjTW694&ab_channel=ABCNews%28Australia%29">green iron</a> and other minerals that require energy-intensive processing, as well as <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/news/all/articles/2023/september/sustainable-aviation-fuel">green transport fuels</a>, <a href="https://www.theland.com.au/story/7985444/good-to-go-green-with-green-urea/">urea</a> for fertiliser, and <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/australia-s-green-energy-future-can-maximise-global-decarbonisation-20230906-p5e2c1">polysilicon</a> for solar panels.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Australia’s huge green industry opportunity</h2>
<p>Of these three ways, by far the least public discussion is on the third: producing energy-intensive green exports. Yet these industries could reduce world emissions by as much as 6–9%, easily Australia’s largest contribution to the global effort. And it would transform our economy, turning Australia into a green energy superpower.</p>
<p>Australia produces <a href="https://www.mining-technology.com/data-insights/iron-ore-in-australia-2/#:%7E:text=Australia%20accounts%20for%2038%25%20of,share%20being%20exported%20to%20China.">almost 40%</a> of the world’s iron ore. Turning iron ore into metallic iron accounts <a href="https://research.csiro.au/tnz/low-emissions-steel/#:%7E:text=Australia%20produces%20almost%20half%20of,global%20green%20house%20gas%20emissions.">for 7% of global emissions</a>. Our iron ore is largely processed overseas, often using Australian coal, which can be exported cheaply. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-beat-rollout-rage-the-environment-versus-climate-battle-dividing-regional-australia-213863">How to beat 'rollout rage': the environment-versus-climate battle dividing regional Australia</a>
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<p>In the net-zero world, iron ore can be reduced to iron metal <a href="https://www.ing.com/Newsroom/News/Hydrogen-sparks-change-for-the-future-of-green-steel-production.htm#:%7E:text=The%20magic%20of%20hydrogen%20is,natural%20gas%20instead%20of%20hydrogen.">using green hydrogen</a> rather than coal. Considerable renewable energy will be needed, yet renewable energy and hydrogen are very expensive to export. </p>
<p>Therefore, rather than export ore, renewable energy and hydrogen, it makes economic sense to process our iron in Australia, before shipping it overseas. Doing so would reduce global emissions by around 3%.</p>
<p>Likewise, turning Australia’s bauxite <a href="https://arena.gov.au/blog/green-steel-and-aluminium-production-within-reach/">into green aluminium</a> using low-cost renewable energy could reduce world emissions by around 1%. Making polysilicon is also energy-intensive, so again Australia is a natural home for its production. And Australian low-cost green hydrogen plus sustainable carbon from <a href="https://arena.gov.au/renewable-energy/bioenergy/">biomass</a> are needed for making green urea and transport fuels. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-juukan-gorge-how-first-nations-people-are-taking-charge-of-clean-energy-projects-on-their-land-213864">Beyond Juukan Gorge: how First Nations people are taking charge of clean energy projects on their land</a>
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<h2>From gas and coal power to clean power</h2>
<p>Australia is the <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/new-analysis-australia-ranks-third-for-fossil-fuel-export/">world’s largest exporter of gas and coal taken together</a>. Some analysts focus on the costs of losing this large comparative advantage as the world responds to climate change. They overlook two key points. </p>
<p>First, Australia has the world’s best combination of <a href="https://www.ga.gov.au/scientific-topics/energy/resources/other-renewable-energy-resources/wind-energy">wind</a> and <a href="https://www.ga.gov.au/scientific-topics/energy/resources/other-renewable-energy-resources/solar-energy">solar</a> energy resources, and enormous sources of biomass for a zero-emissions chemical industry. </p>
<p>Second, we have abundant and much-needed minerals that require huge amounts of energy to process. The high cost of <a href="https://arena.gov.au/blog/can-we-export-renewable-energy/">exporting renewable energy</a> and <a href="https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/opinion-does-it-make-financial-sense-to-export-green-hydrogen-derived-ammonia-around-the-world-/2-1-1325336">hydrogen</a> makes it economically logical for these industries to be located near the energy source. </p>
<p>In other words, more of Australia’s minerals and other energy-intensive products should now be processed in Australia. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<p>If Australia seizes this opportunity it can repeat the experience of the <a href="https://aus.thechinastory.org/archive/economics-and-the-china-resources-boom/#:%7E:text=For%20China%2C%20resources%20remain%20the,of%20trade%20surplus%20with%20China.">China resources boom</a> of around ten years ago, but this time the opportunity can be sustained, not boom and bust, with benefits spread over more regions and people.</p>
<p>Some of the actions governments must take to achieve the 6–9% reduction in world emissions will also help to decarbonise our economy. We must develop the skills we need, support well-staffed government bodies to provide efficient approvals for new mines and processes, build infrastructure that will often be far from the east coast electricity grid, and maintain open trade for imports and exports. </p>
<h2>What government must do</h2>
<p>But we also need policy changes to give private investors assistance to bridge the current <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/why-it-will-cost-320b-to-ditch-coal-in-three-maps-and-a-chart-20220608-p5as3t">cost gap between green and black products</a> (meaning ones made by clean or by fossil fuel energy) in these new industries, and to help early movers. </p>
<p>If we help companies to produce these products at scale, costs will fall as processes are streamlined and technology improves. Capital grants for early movers are an option, but more work is needed to determine the best forms of support.</p>
<p>Let’s make a distinction between energy-intensive green products and mining. While Australia should mine the energy transition minerals the world needs – such as lithium, cobalt and rare earths – mining does not need the financial incentives just cited. Critical minerals are used in black as well as green products and Australia already has significant expertise in mining. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-is-long-and-time-is-short-but-australias-pace-towards-net-zero-is-quickening-214570">The road is long and time is short, but Australia's pace towards net zero is quickening</a>
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<p>Some will argue Australia can wait until other countries have proven the technology and scaled up production so that the green-black price gap disappears; these new green industries will end up in Australia anyway because of our strong comparative advantage. This complacent argument has many flaws.</p>
<p>Australia is making decisions on its climate and economic direction now. If we do not focus on industries in which we have sustainable advantages we will end up damaging our prosperity. For example, we might pursue labour intensive industries that will be low margin and pay low wages, when other countries are better locations for them.</p>
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<p>Second, while technology breakthroughs will be shared internationally, innovation is often about streamlining processes to suit local conditions. If we learn these lessons in Australia, we can achieve lowest-cost world production. If not, these industries could permanently locate elsewhere.</p>
<h2>The need for speed</h2>
<p>Most importantly, Australia needs to move now to put in place the incentives set out above. No other nation that has the capacity to make these energy intensive green products at scale seems focused on the task. If Australia does not do it, the reduction in world emissions could be seriously delayed. </p>
<p>Of all countries, Australia is best placed to show the world what is possible. Companies and countries using conventionally made steel today can say they want to use green iron but none is available. Let’s deny them that excuse.</p>
<p>Once the large investment, productivity and prosperity benefits of this agenda are properly explained, all Australians will applaud it. </p>
<p>What’s more, the level of renewable energy required by the transition will see our power prices fall to some of the lowest in the world.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/worried-economists-call-for-a-carbon-price-a-tax-on-coal-exports-and-green-tariffs-to-get-australia-on-the-path-to-net-zero-216428">Worried economists call for a carbon price, a tax on coal exports, and 'green tariffs' to get Australia on the path to net zero</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216373/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rod Sims is also Chair of the Superpower Institute.</span></em></p>Australia has a massive opportunity to reduce global emissions by as much as 9%, all while renewing its heavy industries and economy. But to seize the opportunity, government needs to move fast.Rod Sims, Professor in the practice of public policy and antitrust, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2154342023-10-22T19:01:26Z2023-10-22T19:01:26ZHere’s what happens to workers when coal-fired power plants close. It isn’t good<p>When Australia’s dirtiest coal-fired power plant, <a href="https://theconversation.com/hazelwood-power-station-from-modernist-icon-to-greenhouse-pariah-75217">Hazelwood</a> in Victoria, closed in 2017, Australian authorities were blind to the collateral damage.</p>
<p>Closing a plant that accounted for a fair chunk of Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions would help bring emissions down, but the costs to the displaced workers were unknowable.</p>
<p>How many of them would lose income, and for how long? How many of them would earn mere fractions of what they used to earn years into the future?</p>
<p>Twelve coal-fired plants closed between 2010 and 2020, and now a deep dive into the tax records of workers in that industry provides us with the first systematic insight into what happened.</p>
<p>The study we carried out for the e61 Institute along with colleague Lachlan Vass examined taxation microdata to track the <a href="https://e61.in/">earnings trajectories</a> of Australians who received redundancy payments between 2010 and 2020 by industry.</p>
<p>Our study, <a href="https://e61.in/">published this morning</a>, finds that on average across all industries the workers made redundant earned around 43% less in the following year.</p>
<h2>Incomes plummet by two-thirds</h2>
<p>But workers made redundant in coal-fired power plants did much worse than the overall average. They earned 69% less in the year after they lost their jobs, earning a mere third of what they had.</p>
<p>Some of the loss would have been due to earning less in new jobs, and some of it would have been due to working fewer hours in new jobs. The tax data doesn’t enable us to tell which is which. Both would be important.</p>
<p>And for workers who lost jobs in coal-fired power plants, the effects lingered.</p>
<p>Four years after being made redundant, the workers in coal-fired power plants earned 50% less. On average across all industries, the workers made redundant earned only 29% less.</p>
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<h2>Why power stations workers do badly</h2>
<p>There are at least four reasons why the incomes of displaced coal-fired power station workers are likely to be lower than the incomes of other displaced workers.</p>
<p>One is that many coal-fired power plant workers possess highly job-specific skills (related to operating specialist equipment) that aren’t readily transferable to other jobs, or at least not to other jobs in that location.</p>
<p>Another is that many coal-fired power plant workers derive high wages from strong union representation, meaning they are likely to earn less if they switch to less-unionised sectors.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bad-news-closing-coal-fired-power-stations-costs-jobs-we-need-to-prepare-113369">Bad news. Closing coal-fired power stations costs jobs. We need to prepare</a>
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<p>Yet another is that coal-fired power plants are often a major source of local employment and provide support to other employers, meaning that when they close the overall unemployment rate in their region <a href="https://theconversation.com/bad-news-closing-coal-fired-power-stations-costs-jobs-we-need-to-prepare-113369">increases</a>, making it hard for the workers they displace to get good jobs unless they move.</p>
<p>And another is that they are usually older. Bureau of Statistics data suggests that in 2010 55% of workers in coal-fired power plants were aged 45 or older compared to 35% in the economy at large.</p>
<p>Workers aged 40 and over do much worse after redundancies than younger workers, and workers in coal-fired power plants even more so.</p>
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<h2>The case for special support</h2>
<p>Another <a href="https://e61.in/">18</a> coal-fired power plants are set to close in coming decades. Our study suggests that while these closures will benefit the nation as a whole, helping fight the existential threat of global warming, they may impose foreseeable and long-lasting costs on an identifiable group of workers.</p>
<p>Half a century ago when Prime Minister Gough Whitlam slashed tariffs on imports by 25% in an effort to fight the lesser threat of double-digit inflation, he extended <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-secret-plan-50-years-ago-changed-australias-economy-forever-in-just-one-night-209378">special support</a> to those the decision would put out of work.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-secret-plan-50-years-ago-changed-australias-economy-forever-in-just-one-night-209378">How a secret plan 50 years ago changed Australia's economy forever, in just one night</a>
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<p>Whitlam offered every displaced worker retraining and “a weekly amount equal to his [sic] average wage in the previous six months until he obtains or is found suitable alternative employment”.</p>
<p>Opponents of this sort of targeted support point out that the number of workers set to lose jobs from coal-fired plant closures is minuscule compared to the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/jobs/job-mobility/latest-release">millions</a> of workers who leave jobs for other reasons every year.</p>
<p>But there is something different about losing a job when it is the result of a government decision, especially one that targets a particular geographic region.</p>
<p>We now need a national conversation on whether special support is warranted for those we know the move to net zero will hurt.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215434/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dan Andrews receives funding from the Susan McKinnon Foundation via the e61 Institute.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elyse Dwyer is affiliated with the e61 Institute.</span></em></p>Four years after being made redundant, workers in coal-fired power stations made redundant make only one half of what they used to.Dan Andrews, Visiting Fellow and Director – Micro heterogeneity and Macroeconomic Performance program, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityElyse Dwyer, Researcher, Department of Economics, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2123162023-10-12T17:11:41Z2023-10-12T17:11:41ZSenghenydd colliery disaster: how Britain’s worst mining tragedy revealed the true price of coal<p>Miners working at the Universal Colliery in Senghenydd, south Wales, were in the middle of their morning shifts 2000ft below the ground when a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-18610076">massive explosion</a> ripped through the deep pit at 8.10am. A spark from an electric bell had ignited a deadly mix of methane gas and coal dust, known to miners as “firedamp”. </p>
<p>The blast on October 14 1913 killed 439 men and boys, with another dying during rescue operations. It was, and remains, the <a href="https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/pathways/census/pandp/places/seng.htm">worst</a> coal mining disaster in British history and also the sixth worst in the world. </p>
<p>But disasters of this dreadful nature occurred with dismal regularity in the south Wales coalfield when the industry was at its height. South Wales was the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4582420/">most dangerous</a> coalfield in what was statistically the most dangerous industry in the UK at that time. </p>
<p>Only a few miles away from Senghenydd, 290 miners had died in an explosion at the <a href="https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/albion-colliery-mining-disaster-cilfynydd-16135285">Albion Colliery</a> in Cilfynydd in 1894. The Universal Colliery had itself suffered an earlier explosion, in <a href="https://www.nmrs.org.uk/mines-map/accidents-disasters/glamorganshire/universal-colliery-explosion-senghenydd-1901/">1901</a>, which killed 81 miners. </p>
<p>Everyone in Senghenydd lost family or friends in the 1913 disaster. It left 542 children fatherless and made widows of more than 200 women. Ninety boys and young men aged 20 or less were killed, with the youngest victims being just 14 years old. One chapel in the village reportedly lost 60% of its male members. </p>
<p>Although Senghenydd bore the brunt of the tragedy, its deadly effects were also felt further afield. A sizeable minority of the miners who were killed lived in the neighbouring village of Abertridwr and other nearby villages, while ten lived as comparatively far away as Cardiff. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ancestry.co.uk/c/uk1911census">1911 Census</a> shows a large number of families and individuals from every part of Wales living or lodging in Senghenydd. It also shows that many of those who were killed in the disaster had come to the village from England and some from Ireland.</p>
<h2>Justice?</h2>
<p>From the perspective of mining families, the official investigations into the disaster added insult to injury. The coroner’s inquest into the disaster returned a verdict of <a href="https://www.nmrs.org.uk/mines-map/accidents-disasters/glamorganshire/universal-colliery-explosion-senghenydd-1913/">accidental death</a>. </p>
<p>Following the inquest, the colliery’s manager was prosecuted for 17 breaches of the Coal Mines Act, while the company was charged with four breaches. But most of those charges ended up being dropped. </p>
<p>The manager was eventually fined a total of £24 and the company was fined £10 with £5 and 5 shillings costs. As the Merthyr Pioneer newspaper <a href="https://newspapers.library.wales/view/4000499/4000502/27/senghenydd%20disaster%201914">reported</a>: “Miners’ lives at 1s 1¼d each” –- the equivalent of 5.5p per dead miner in today’s money.</p>
<p>The Universal Colliery went back to work at the end of November 1913. It eventually closed in 1928 and the derelict site was demolished in 1963.</p>
<p>In 2013, on the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-24506122">100th anniversary</a> of the disaster, the <a href="https://www.visitcaerphilly.com/en/senghenydd-national-mining-memorial-garden/">Welsh National Mining Memorial</a> was unveiled on the old colliery site, to commemorate miners killed in the Senghenydd disasters and also to remember the victims of the other 150 mining disasters in Wales. </p>
<p>Hundreds of people gathered to pay their respects and to view the unveiling of the memorial. The scale of the public turnout to the commemoration showed the extent to which the people of the south Wales valleys are still aware of the terrible toll of death and injury that the industry inflicted upon its workforce.</p>
<p>The memorial statue itself depicts a rescue worker helping an injured miner. Surrounding the statute is a walled garden, with tiles inscribed with the details of those killed in the two Senghenydd disasters as well as a “path of memory”, which marks other colliery tragedies in Wales.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/yy72FYqG5Is?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A Channel 4 news report from the 100 year commemoration.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Although the disaster was <a href="https://blog.britishnewspaperarchive.co.uk/2013/10/11/the-mining-disaster-at-the-universal-colliery-in-senghenydd-south-wales-14-october-1913/">widely reported</a> at the time, it faded from memory for most people and is not well known beyond Wales by now. </p>
<p>It is possible that this was due to it being eclipsed by the outbreak of the first world war less than a year later. Or perhaps it was because there were just so many colliery disasters that memory of it merged into a broader, vaguer memory of death and danger in the coalfields. </p>
<h2>Remembering</h2>
<p>Although the collieries are all long gone now, mining disasters continue to retain a contemporary resonance in the folk memory of the south Wales coalfield region. </p>
<p>This was seen in <a href="https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/coal-spoil-tips-landslide-safe-17826953">popular responses</a> to a coal tip landslide in Tylorstown in 2020, which is just 11km away from Senghenydd. It was reflective of the visceral horror at the <a href="https://aberfan.walesonline.co.uk">Aberfan disaster</a> of October 1966, in which 116 children and 28 adults were killed when a coal tip slid downhill onto a primary school. </p>
<p>Such latter-day commemoration, as often as not via social media nowadays, is perpetuated by people who in many cases have no personal memory of these disasters –- yet nevertheless, we remember. The people of the valleys have never forgotten that coal was always stained with blood.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212316/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Curtis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Four hundred and forty men and boys were killed in the Senghenydd colliery disaster, with the youngest victims aged just 14 years old.Ben Curtis, Historian, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2138662023-10-10T19:06:17Z2023-10-10T19:06:17ZWhy Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it<p>Australia has <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/australia-legislates-emissions-reduction-targets">a legislated target</a> to reduce greenhouse emissions, a federal government with commitments <a href="https://www.energycouncil.com.au/analysis/the-82-per-cent-national-renewable-energy-target-where-did-it-come-from-and-how-can-we-get-there/#:%7E:text=A%20national%20renewable%20electricity%20target,Interconnected%20System%2C%20and%20the%20North">to increase the share of renewable electricity</a> and reduce power prices, and a globally important economic opportunity at its feet. </p>
<p>In the second half of the government’s current term, delivery looks hard across the board. All is not lost, but we must transform our economy to a timetable. The unprecedented scale and pace of the economic transformation, and the consequences of failure, demand an unprecedented response. </p>
<p>To get things on track requires the government to develop a plan with the right mix of political commitment, credible policies, coordination with industry, and support from communities. And, critically, the plan must be implemented. Too often targets have been set without being linked to policies to achieve them, or linked so poorly that the extra cost and delay sets back the climate transition.</p>
<p>By the middle of this year, Australia’s emissions were <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/policy-topics/measuring-what-matters/dashboard/emissions-reduction">25% below the 2005 level</a>. But the trend of steady reductions has stalled, and sectors such as <a href="https://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021Fact%20sheet%20-%20Transport.pdf">transport</a> and agriculture have moved in the wrong direction. </p>
<p>Such ups and downs will continue in response to external events, as we have seen with COVID, droughts, and war on the other side of the world. Policies must be flexible if they are to remain broadly on course in the face of such events. </p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Trouble in the power department</h2>
<p>The detail matters: national emissions reductions <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/national-greenhouse-gas-inventory-march-2023.pdf">have slowed</a>, as has <a href="https://www.energymatters.com.au/renewable-news/cec-australian-wind-and-solar-investment-slows-in-q2-energy-storage-booms/#:%7E:text=The%20slowdown%20in%20investment%20in,support%20from%20the%20federal%20government.">the growth in renewable generation</a> towards the government’s 2030 target of 82%. </p>
<p>At the same time, the government’s <a href="https://www.alp.org.au/policies/powering-australia">target of lower power bills</a> by 2025 looks out of reach, and electricity reliability is threatened as coal-fired generation closes without adequate replacement.</p>
<p>The production and use of natural gas <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Flame-out-Grattan-report.pdf">contributes around 20%</a> of Australia’s emissions. The use of gas in industry will be covered by the <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/NGER/The-Safeguard-Mechanism#:%7E:text=The%20Safeguard%20Mechanism%20has%20been%20in%20place%20since%201%20July,must%20manage%20their%20excess%20emissions.">Safeguard Mechanism</a>, a policy designed by the Coalition and now revised by Labor, to drive down emissions from the country’s 200 biggest emitters. </p>
<p>Emissions from gas-fired power generation will fall with the growth of renewables. But there are no constraints on fossil gas use in other sectors, such as our homes. </p>
<p>Industrial emissions are <a href="https://theconversation.com/nearly-30-of-australias-emissions-come-from-industry-tougher-rules-for-big-polluters-is-a-no-brainer-190264">slowly growing</a>. The huge amount of hype about green hydrogen has so far proven to be little more than that: Australia continues to have lots of potential green hydrogen projects, but <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/australia-leads-world-in-green-hydrogen-hype-and-hope-but-not-in-actual-projects/">virtually none are delivered</a>.</p>
<p>Finally, we remain without <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/fuel-efficiency-standard-cleaner-cheaper-run-cars-australia-consultation-paper-april2023.pdf">constraints on vehicle emissions</a>, and with a large herd of <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/cp/CP22299#:%7E:text=In%20Australia%2C%2071%25%20of%20agricultural,by%20grazing%20sheep%20and%20cattle.">grazing cattle and sheep</a> whose emissions are determined more by the weather than the actions of our best-meaning farmers.</p>
<h2>The risk of swinging from naive to negative</h2>
<p>So, we are in a hard place. Naïve optimism about an easy, cheap transition to net zero is at risk of giving way to brutal negativity that it’s all just too hard. The warnings of early spring fires and floods in Australia and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/17/extreme-temperatures-recorded-across-northern-hemisphere">extreme heat</a> during the most recent northern hemisphere summer will feed this tension.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-hard-basket-why-climate-change-is-defeating-our-political-system-214382">Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system</a>
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<p>The federal government’s latest <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/2023-intergenerational-report">Intergenerational</a> Report provides a deeply disturbing snapshot of the potential economic impacts if we fail to get climate change under control. Yet in a world 3 to 4 degrees hotter than pre-industrial levels, economic impacts could be the least of our worries.</p>
<p>The task is unparalleled outside wartime. Within 30 years we must manage the decline of fossil fuel extractive sectors, transform every aspect of our energy and transport sectors, reindustrialise much of manufacturing, and find solutions to difficult problems in agriculture.</p>
<p>What’s to be done?</p>
<h2>The need for a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee</h2>
<p>We should begin with leadership across the federal government, coordinated with the states and territories. The best structure might be a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee with two clear objectives – to develop and begin implementing a national net zero transformation plan by the end of 2024. </p>
<p>Modern governments are more than happy to set targets and announce plans to meet them. They seem to have lost the capacity or will to implement such plans. The <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/news/net-zero-economy-agency#:%7E:text=The%20Net%20Zero%20Economy%20Agency,of%20the%20net%20zero%20economy.">Net Zero Economy Agency</a>, created in July and chaired by former Climate Change Minister Greg Combet, could be charged with that task.</p>
<p>The first step is being taken – the <a href="https://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/">Climate Change Authority</a> is now advising on emissions reduction targets for 2035 and perhaps beyond. The government’s work to create pathways to reducing emissions in every economic sector must be used to build a comprehensive set of policies that are directly linked to meeting the targets.</p>
<h2>How to get electricity moving in the right direction</h2>
<p>The electricity sector can be put on track with three actions. One, drive emissions reduction towards net zero using a sector-focused policy such as the <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/About-the-Renewable-Energy-Target">Renewable Energy Target</a> or the Safeguard Mechanism. </p>
<p>Two, implement the <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/energy-supply/capacity-investment-scheme">Capacity Investment Scheme</a>, a policy intended to deliver dispatchable electricity capacity to balance a system built on intermittent wind and solar supply. </p>
<p>Three, set up a National Transmission Agency to work with the <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en">Australian Energy Market Operator</a> (AEMO) to plan the national transmission grid and with authority to direct, fund, and possibly own that grid.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/made-in-america-how-bidens-climate-package-is-fuelling-the-global-drive-to-net-zero-214709">Made in America: how Biden's climate package is fuelling the global drive to net zero</a>
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<p>For heavy industry, the scale and pace of change demands a 21st-century industry policy, in three parts. Activities such as coal mining will be essentially incompatible with a net-zero economy. Activities such as steel-making may be able to transform through economic, low-emissions technologies. </p>
<p>Finally, activities such as low-emissions extraction and processing of critical energy minerals, which are insignificant today but which in time could help Australia to capitalise on globally significant comparative advantages. </p>
<h2>Create a plan – and stick to it</h2>
<p>The government has made a good start by revising the Safeguard Mechanism and the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/publications/australias-national-hydrogen-strategy">Hydrogen Strategy</a> and developing a <a href="https://www.globalaustralia.gov.au/industries/net-zero/critical-minerals#:%7E:text=Australia's%20Critical%20Mineral%20Strategy%202023,raw%20and%20processed%20critical%20minerals.">Critical Minerals Strategy</a>. These should be brought together in an overarching policy framework with consistent, targeted policies linked to clear goals, developed and executed in sustained collaboration with industry. </p>
<p>The Safeguard Mechanism will need to be extended beyond 2030 and its emissions threshold for the companies it covers lowered to 25,000 tonnes of emissions per year.</p>
<p>Industry funding will probably need to expand, and give priority to export-oriented industries that will grow in a net-zero global economy. And the federal and state governments should phase out all programs that encourage expansion of fossil fuel extraction or consumption.</p>
<p>In transport, long-delayed emissions standards should be set and implemented. Finally, government-funded research, some of it already underway, should focus on difficult areas such as early-stage emissions reduction technologies in specific heavy industries, transport subsectors, and emissions from grazing cattle and sheep.</p>
<p>There is little new or radical in the elements of this plan. What would be new is a commitment to its design and implementation. This is what government needs to do now. The consequences of failure are beyond our worst fears, the benefits of success beyond our best dreams.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213866/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Wood may have a financial interest in companies relevant to the article through his superannuation fund. </span></em></p>Australia’s move towards net zero emissoions by 2020 is in danger of stalling. If it is not to fail, the nation urgently needs a government plan, aligned with industry and with public support.Tony Wood, Program Director, Energy, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2145882023-10-05T19:03:32Z2023-10-05T19:03:32ZWhy the ‘drug dealers defence’ doesn’t work for exporting coal. It’s actually Economics 101<p>In defending a Federal Court case brought by opponents of her decisions to approve two export coal mines, Environment Minister <a href="https://thewest.com.au/news/environment/minister-faces-court-action-over-climate-harms-c-11934083">Tanya Plibersek</a> is relying in part on what critics call the “<a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2022/07/23/drug-dealers-defence">drug dealer’s defence</a>”.</p>
<p>It’s reasoning that argues: <a href="https://johnmenadue.com/environment-minister-resorts-to-drug-dealers-defence-to-approve-coal-mines/">if we don’t sell this product, someone else will</a>. </p>
<p>Prime Minister Albanese has argued the same thing, telling <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/anthony-albanese-coal-ban-wont-cut-emissions/news-story/c44ac6b4ccad5d451638c34c30d8a508">The Australian</a></p>
<blockquote>
<p>policies that would just result in a replacement of Australian resources with resources that are less clean from other countries would lead to an increase in global emissions, not a decrease.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Albanese’s reasoning is that saying no to new Australian coal mines wouldn’t cut global emissions, it would just produce “less economic activity in Australia”. </p>
<p>If it sounds like a familiar argument, it is – past <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/oct/27/malcolm-turnbull-coal-export-ban-would-make-no-difference-to-emissions">prime ministers</a> and the coal <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/king-coal-under-siege-20061202-gdoyl2.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap3">industry</a> have made similar claims for decades.</p>
<p>It’s possible to test this argument using economics, putting to one side the question of whether it is morally justifiable.</p>
<h2>The defence works for drug dealers</h2>
<p>Let’s look at how this defence works with retail drug dealers, many of whom are drug users themselves. </p>
<p>Street-level drug dealing is a job that doesn’t require much skill and pays above the minimum wage, even after allowing for the risk of arrest. </p>
<p>As a result, as soon as one dealer is arrested, someone will enter the market to replace the dealer. For this reason, drug policy has shifted away from traditional modes of street-level enforcement and towards <a href="https://www.campbellcollaboration.org/better-evidence/meta-analytic-review-street-level-drug-law-enforcement.html">community partnerships</a>. </p>
<p>But coal is different. Global markets are supplied by a range of producers, each with different costs. Some mines can cover their costs even when world prices are low, others require very high world coal prices to break even. </p>
<p>In the case of <a href="https://www.bhp.com/what-we-do/products/metallurgical-coal">metallurgical</a> (coking) coal used to make steel, Australia’s mines are mostly at the low-cost end of the spectrum as shown below:</p>
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<p><strong>Indicative hard coking coal supply curve by mine, 2019</strong></p>
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<p>Thermal coal, used in electricity generation, is more complex, since much of the variation in price relates to its quality, rather than extraction cost. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, the fact remains that if one producer withdraws from the market or reduces output, it is highly unlikely to be replaced by an identical-cost producer.</p>
<p>It is likely instead to be replaced by a higher-cost supplier who needs a higher price to cover its costs. That’ll make the coal less attractive to the buyer who would have bought from the low-cost producer, making that buyer likely to buy less of it.</p>
<p>This is Economics 101, illustrated in the supply and demand diagrams in just about every <a href="https://www.core-econ.org/doing-economics/book/text/07-01.html">economics textbook</a>. </p>
<h2>Why Australia’s coal matters globally</h2>
<p>In most markets, the demand curve is downward sloping, meaning the higher the price, the less the buyer wants.</p>
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<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552252/original/file-20231005-17-fwqjgt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552252/original/file-20231005-17-fwqjgt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552252/original/file-20231005-17-fwqjgt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552252/original/file-20231005-17-fwqjgt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552252/original/file-20231005-17-fwqjgt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552252/original/file-20231005-17-fwqjgt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552252/original/file-20231005-17-fwqjgt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552252/original/file-20231005-17-fwqjgt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.fwf.com/supply-and-demand/">Fifth Wheel Freight, Supply and Demand in the Transportation Industry</a></span>
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<p>And in most markets, the supply curve is upward sloping, meaning the higher the price, the more the seller is prepared to sell.</p>
<p>What’s bought, and for how much, depends on where those curves meet.</p>
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<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552253/original/file-20231005-21-jq6m7x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552253/original/file-20231005-21-jq6m7x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552253/original/file-20231005-21-jq6m7x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552253/original/file-20231005-21-jq6m7x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552253/original/file-20231005-21-jq6m7x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552253/original/file-20231005-21-jq6m7x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552253/original/file-20231005-21-jq6m7x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552253/original/file-20231005-21-jq6m7x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.fwf.com/supply-and-demand/">Fifth Wheel Freight, Supply and Demand in the Transportation Industry</a></span>
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<p>If the supply curve moves up, because the cost of supply has increased, the price at which the good is bought will move up and the quantity bought will move down.</p>
<p>In the figure below, the supply curve S1 is the current global supply.</p>
<p>If Australia supplies less coal, the supply curve will shift from S1 to S2, resulting in the higher price P2.</p>
<p>The higher price will result in increased supply from competitors, but also a reduction in the total amount consumed, a cut from Q1 to Q2. </p>
<hr>
<hr>
<p>This means that, contrary to government claims, our decisions will have an impact on global emissions and ultimately on global heating</p>
<p>Moreover, Australian decisions aren’t isolated.</p>
<p>All around the world, governments, financial institutions and civil society groups are grappling with the need to transition away from coal. </p>
<p>Proposals for new and expanded coal mines and coal-fired power stations face resistance at every step. In particular, the great majority of global banks and insurance companies now refuse to finance and insure new coal. </p>
<p>This means that the long-run response to a reduction in Australia’s supply of coal will involve less substitution and more of a drop in use than might be thought.</p>
<h2>For coal, the drug dealer’s defence is shoddy</h2>
<p>It makes the drug dealers defence for exporting coal especially shoddy. </p>
<p>It would be open to Plibersek to make another argument: that in the government’s political judgement, Australians are not willing to wear the short-run costs of a transition from coal, regardless of the impact on the global climate manifested every day in bushfires, floods and environmental destruction. </p>
<p>But instead, we are being told that if Australia cuts supply, other suppliers will rush in, without being told about their costs and what will happen next.</p>
<p>In markets like coal, with a fixed number of suppliers facing different costs, demand responds to the withdrawal of supply in the way the economics textbooks say it should.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-environment-minister-tanya-plibersek-approved-a-coal-mine-but-save-the-angst-for-decisions-that-matter-more-205561">Yes, Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek approved a coal mine. But save the angst for decisions that matter more</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214588/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority.</span></em></p>The argument that “if we don’t sell it, someone else will” works for the street-level drug dealing. Coal exports are different – and here’s how.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2144632023-09-28T05:38:38Z2023-09-28T05:38:38ZThe green energy surge still isn’t enough for 1.5 degrees. We’ll have to overshoot, adapt and soak up carbon dioxide<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550517/original/file-20230927-29-1bck3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C5519%2C3660&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It was a rare bit of good news on climate. The International Energy Agency this week released its latest <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-roadmap-a-global-pathway-to-keep-the-15-0c-goal-in-reach">net zero roadmap</a>, showing it was still just possible to hold global heating to 1.5°C. </p>
<p>In the last two years, we’ve seen <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/renewable-power-on-course-to-shatter-more-records-as-countries-around-the-world-speed-up-deployment">major global investment</a> in clean energy, spurred on by energy independence concerns raised by the war in Ukraine, as well as intensifying extreme weather. </p>
<p>Even so, it’s unlikely to actually keep us under 1.5°C, the globally agreed target to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. </p>
<p>Why? Because emissions are <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-carbon-emissions-at-record-levels-with-no-signs-of-shrinking-new-data-shows-humanity-has-a-monumental-task-ahead-193108">still rising</a> – even as many countries make their energy grids greener. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1706576930235973807"}"></div></p>
<h2>Why is it so hard?</h2>
<p>In part, because we’ve left our run very late. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its first assessment in 1990. Since then, the world has emitted one trillion tonnes of carbon dioxide, which is two-thirds of the carbon budget. That is, the amount of permissible emissions that would feasibly allow us to limit global warming to 1.5°C above the pre-industrial temperature.</p>
<p>At the beginning of this year, the world had <a href="https://nesp2climate.com.au/unmasking-our-carbon-and-climate-futures/">just 380 billion tonnes</a> of carbon dioxide left in the carbon budget. Global emissions have been about 40 billion tonnes a year over the past few years with no sign of decline. At that rate, we’ll hit 1.5°C in about nine years, and 2°C in 30 years.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/renewables-are-cheaper-than-ever-yet-fossil-fuel-use-is-still-growing-heres-why-213428">Renewables are cheaper than ever yet fossil fuel use is still growing – here’s why</a>
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<p>We are not moving fast enough, on enough fronts, to wean ourselves off fossil fuels.</p>
<p>For instance, even though the use of electric vehicles is growing fast, it’s off a low base. The world still has <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/used-car-exports-threaten-climate-goals/">an estimated</a> 1.4 billion internal combustion engine cars, which run on petrol, diesel or gas. </p>
<p>Emissions from all forms of transport are increasing. Fossil gas use is surging. Coal use was thought to have <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-21/international-energy-agency-says-coal-demand-peaked-in-2013/13001140">peaked in 2013</a>. But it’s back at even higher levels over the past two years, as nations scramble to shore up energy supplies due to the war in Ukraine.</p>
<p>Clean alternatives haven’t yet replaced fossil fuels at sufficient scale. It doesn’t matter how many solar panels are installed unless they also substitute the power that fossil fuels provide. And on a global scale, that’s not happening quickly enough to prevent us hitting 1.5°C. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550518/original/file-20230927-23-8ya7k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="solar farm Yunnan province china" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550518/original/file-20230927-23-8ya7k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550518/original/file-20230927-23-8ya7k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550518/original/file-20230927-23-8ya7k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550518/original/file-20230927-23-8ya7k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550518/original/file-20230927-23-8ya7k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550518/original/file-20230927-23-8ya7k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550518/original/file-20230927-23-8ya7k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">China’s renewable build is accelerating.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But the good news is we’re finally seeing something that seemed all but impossible just 10 years ago – nation after nation finally getting serious on climate change.</p>
<p>Renewables are so cheap they’re getting built because they make money – at the expense of old fossil fuel plants. Electric vehicles are here, and will make life better, from cutting running costs to radically improving air quality in our cities. Many nations will achieve energy independence.</p>
<p>We are making rapid progress in greening the electric grid, with China building <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/29/china-wind-solar-power-global-renewable-energy-leader">even more renewables</a> than its government targets. On the streets of Shanghai and Oslo, electric vehicles are a common sight. </p>
<p>These trends need to spread worldwide, and fast. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-just-blew-past-1-5-degrees-game-over-on-climate-not-yet-213364">We just blew past 1.5 degrees. Game over on climate? Not yet</a>
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<p>Economic sectors that produce large volumes of emissions, such as concrete and steel making, are difficult to decarbonise and will take longer. Likewise for the <a href="https://carbonmonitor.org/">aviation</a> and <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cc2672en/cc2672en.pdf">food system</a> sectors, where emissions keep rising.</p>
<p>Renewables, after all, are a means to an end. The goal is to rapidly reduce the use of fossil fuels, with any unavoidable emissions captured and permanently sequestered.</p>
<p>Until now, the very best we’ve done is to meet the growth in global demand for energy with non-fossil fuel sources – not to actually cut emissions. To actually slash emissions means transformational change. </p>
<h2>Why the positive forecast?</h2>
<p>Our best climate projections, the rate we’re using our remaining carbon budget, and current climate policies in place all consistently lead us to <a href="https://nesp2climate.com.au/unmasking-our-carbon-and-climate-futures/">temperatures well past 1.5°C</a> by the end of the century. </p>
<p>So why is the International Energy Agency still floating the possibility of stabilising the climate at 1.5°C? </p>
<p>If you <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/4d93d947-c78a-47a9-b223-603e6c3fc7d8/NetZeroRoadmap_AGlobalPathwaytoKeepthe1.5CGoalinReach-2023Update.pdf">read the report</a>, it becomes clear. Achieving net zero at this late stage will mean overshooting 1.5°C – and then using trees and negative emissions technologies at a very large scale to bring us back to that level. </p>
<p>This will take the creation of a whole new industry of atmospheric greenhouse gas removal and decades of effort.</p>
<p>So even as the world accelerates climate action, the claim that we can avoid climate change from reaching and passing 1.5°C is out of reach. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/global-carbon-emissions-at-record-levels-with-no-signs-of-shrinking-new-data-shows-humanity-has-a-monumental-task-ahead-193108">Global carbon emissions at record levels with no signs of shrinking, new data shows. Humanity has a monumental task ahead</a>
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<h2>What does this mean?</h2>
<p>If humanity blows past the target of 1.5°C and keeps warming the planet, it doesn’t mean we just give up. Every decimal of a degree avoided matters a lot. </p>
<p>We’re only at 1.2°C now, and extreme weather, fire activity and other damage from climate change is coming thick and fast. </p>
<p>But there are clear risks in relying too much on the potential of removing large quantities of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere while also bringing down emissions as close to zero as possible. </p>
<p>Overshooting 1.5°C has another important implication. For years, climate action – cutting emissions – has been at the forefront of global efforts. But we have been too slow. Now we have to adapt to the rapidly evolving climate, with new policies, investment and preparedness.</p>
<p>This is not a story of unavoidable catastrophe. Climate scientists, on the whole, are optimists. All the work being done means we’re finally seeing positive change. But the numbers don’t lie. We must get those emissions down. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ev-sales-growth-points-to-oil-demand-peaking-by-2030-so-why-is-the-oil-industry-doubling-down-on-production-213637">EV sales growth points to oil demand peaking by 2030 − so why is the oil industry doubling down on production?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214463/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pep Canadell receives funding from the Australian National Environmental Science Program (NESP) Climate Systems Hub.</span></em></p>Holding climate change to 1.5 might be possible – but in the best case, we’ll blow past the limit first and then backpedal.Pep Canadell, Chief Research Scientist, Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere; Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2135502023-09-26T02:46:39Z2023-09-26T02:46:39ZMuscle, wood, coal, oil: what earlier energy transitions tell us about renewables<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550133/original/file-20230925-29-u06u61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=89%2C104%2C4790%2C2395&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Child coal miners, Pennsylvania, 1911</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d7/Inside_workers_shaft_-6_Pennsylvania_Coal_Company%2C._LOC_nclc.01144.tif">Lewis Wickes Hines/Wikimedia Commons</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2022, the burning of fossil fuels <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/renewables-growth-did-not-dent-fossil-fuel-dominance-2022-statistical-review-2023-06-25/">provided 82%</a> of the world’s energy. In 2000, it was 87%. Even as renewables have undergone tremendous growth, they’ve been offset by increased demand <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/energy-mix">for energy</a>. </p>
<p>That’s why the United Nations earlier this month released a <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/global-stocktake">global stocktake</a> – an assessment on how the world is going in weaning itself off these energy-dense but dangerously polluting fuels. Short answer: progress, but nowhere near enough, soon enough. </p>
<p>If we consult history, we find that energy transitions are not new. To farm fields and build cities, we’ve gone from relying on human or animal muscle to wind and water to power sailboats and mill grain. Then we began switching to the energy dense hydrocarbons, coal, gas and oil. But this can’t last. We were first warned in <a href="https://www.rigb.org/explore-science/explore/blog/who-discovered-greenhouse-effect">1859</a> that when burned, these fuels add to the Earth’s warming blanket of greenhouse gases and threaten our liveable climate. </p>
<p>It’s time for another energy transition. We’ve done it before. The problem is time – and resistance from the old energy regime, fossil fuel companies. Energy historian Vaclav Smil calculates past energy transitions have taken <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262536165/energy-and-civilization/">50–75 years</a> to ripple through societies. And we no longer have that kind of time, as climate change accelerates. This year is likely <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230906-2023-likely-to-be-hottest-year-on-record-eu-monitor-1">the hottest in 120,000 years</a>. </p>
<p>So can we learn anything from past energy transitions? As it happens, we can.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549958/original/file-20230925-27-htrx3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="madagascar oxen cart rural residents" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549958/original/file-20230925-27-htrx3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549958/original/file-20230925-27-htrx3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549958/original/file-20230925-27-htrx3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549958/original/file-20230925-27-htrx3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549958/original/file-20230925-27-htrx3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549958/original/file-20230925-27-htrx3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549958/original/file-20230925-27-htrx3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We’ve drawn heavily on the strength of animals until very recently. This image shows rural residents riding an ox-drawn cart in Madagascar.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Energy shifts happen in fits and starts</h2>
<p>Until around 1880, the world ran on wood, charcoal, crop residue, manure, water and wind. In fact, some countries relied on wood and charcoal throughout the 20th century – even as others were shifting from coal to oil. </p>
<p>The English had used coal for domestic heating from the time of the Romans because it burned longer and had nearly double the energy intensity of wood. </p>
<p>So what drove the shift? Deforestation was a part. The reliance on wood worked while there were trees. In the pre-industrial era, cities of 500,000 or more needed huge areas of forests around them. </p>
<p>In some locales wood seemed boundless, free and expendable. The costs to biodiversity would become apparent only later.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549955/original/file-20230925-25-bkscie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="wood to burn for charcoal" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549955/original/file-20230925-25-bkscie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549955/original/file-20230925-25-bkscie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=812&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549955/original/file-20230925-25-bkscie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=812&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549955/original/file-20230925-25-bkscie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=812&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549955/original/file-20230925-25-bkscie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1020&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549955/original/file-20230925-25-bkscie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1020&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549955/original/file-20230925-25-bkscie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1020&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Wood has been an essential source of energy. This 1925 photo shows a woodpile in Victoria ready to be burned for charcoal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://collections.museumsvictoria.com.au/items/766744">Charlie Gillett/Museums Victoria</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>England was once carpeted in forest. Endemic deforestation drove the change to coal in the 16th and 17th centuries. Most English coal pits opened between 1540 and 1640.</p>
<p>When the English figured out how to use coal to make steam and push a piston, it made even more possible – pumping water from deepening mining pits, the invention of locomotives, and transporting produce, including the feed needed by working animals. </p>
<p>Yet for all this, coal had only reached 5% of the global market by 1840. </p>
<p>In North America, coal didn’t overtake wood until as late as 1884 – even as crude oil became more important. </p>
<p>Why did America first start exploiting oil reserves? In part to replace expensive oil from the heads of sperm whales. Before hydrocarbon oil was widely available, whaling was depended upon for lubricants and some lighting. In 1846, the US had 700 whaling vessels scouring the oceans for this source of oil.</p>
<p>Crude oil was struck first in Pennsylvania in 1859. To extract it required drilling down 21 metres. The drill was powered by a steam engine – which may have been fired by wood.</p>
<h2>Steam and muscle</h2>
<p>The 19th century energy transition took decades. It wasn’t a revolution so much as a steady shift. By the end of that century, global energy supply had doubled and half of it was from coal. </p>
<p>When they were first invented in 1712, steam engines converted just 2% of coal into useful energy. Almost 150 years later they were still highly inefficient at just 15%. (Petrol-powered cars still waste <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-cars-waste-two-thirds-of-their-fuel-197752">about 66%</a> of the energy in their fuel). </p>
<p>Even so, steam sped up early proto-industries such as textiles, print production and traditional manufacturing. </p>
<p>But the engines did not free us from the yoke. In fact, early coal mining actually increased demand for human labour. Boys as young as six worked at lighter tasks. Conditions were generally horrific. Alongside human muscle was animal strength. Coal was often raised from pits by draft horses. </p>
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Read more:
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<p>In 1850s New England, steam was three times more expensive than water flows powering textile mills. Vaclav Smil <a href="https://www.google.com.au/books/edition/Energy_and_Civilization/Br74DwAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=vaclav+smil&printsec=frontcover">has shown</a> industrial waterwheels and turbines “competed successfully with steam engines for decades”. The energy of flowing water was free. Digging up coal was labor-intensive. </p>
<p>Why did steam win? Human ecologist Andreas Malm argues <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09644016.2020.1718873#:%7E:text=Contrary%20to%20scholars%20who%20situate,required%20no%20animate%20labour%20to">what really drove the shift</a> to steam-powered mills was capital. Locating steam engines in urban centres made it easier to concentrate and control workers, as well as overcoming worker walk-outs and machine breaking. </p>
<p>The question of who does the work is often overlooked. When energy historians refer vaguely to human muscle, we should ask: whose muscles? Was the work done by slaves or forced labourers? </p>
<p>Even in the current energy transition there can be gross disparities between employer and worker. As heat intensifies, some employers are giving <a href="https://time.com/6211360/qatar-world-cup-workers-extreme-heat/">ice vests to their migrant workers</a> so they can keep working. That’s reminiscent of coal shovelers in the furnace-like stokeholes of steam ships being immersed in ice-baths on collapse, as historian On Barak <a href="https://www.google.com.au/books/edition/Powering_Empire/qlfDDwAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&printsec=frontcover">has shown</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548244/original/file-20230914-21-mpsuw8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=199%2C91%2C1493%2C1151&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="pit pony coal mine" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548244/original/file-20230914-21-mpsuw8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=199%2C91%2C1493%2C1151&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548244/original/file-20230914-21-mpsuw8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548244/original/file-20230914-21-mpsuw8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548244/original/file-20230914-21-mpsuw8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548244/original/file-20230914-21-mpsuw8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548244/original/file-20230914-21-mpsuw8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548244/original/file-20230914-21-mpsuw8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Pit ponies were widely used in coal mines.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What does this mean for us?</h2>
<p>As Vaclav Smil <a href="https://www.google.com.au/books/edition/Energy_and_Civilization/Br74DwAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=every+transition+to+a+new+energy+supply+has+to+be+powered+by+the+intensive+deployment+of+existing+energies+and+prime+movers&pg=PA230&printsec=frontcover">points out</a>, “every transition to a new energy supply has to be powered by the intensive deployment of existing energies and prime movers”. In fact, Smil argues the idea of the “industrial revolution” is misleading. It was not sudden. Rather, it was “gradual, often uneven”.</p>
<p>History may seem like it unfolds neatly. But it doesn’t at all. In earlier transitions, we see overlaps. Hesitation. Sometimes, more intense use of earlier energy sources. They start as highly localised shifts, depending on available resources, before new technologies spreads along trade routes. Ultimately market forces have driven – or hindered – adoption. </p>
<p>Time is short. But on the plus side, there are market forces now driving the shift to clean energy. Once solar panels and wind turbines are built, sunlight and wind are free. It is the resistance of the old guard – fossil fuel corporations – that is holding us back.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/despairing-about-climate-change-these-4-charts-on-the-unstoppable-growth-of-solar-may-change-your-mind-204901">Despairing about climate change? These 4 charts on the unstoppable growth of solar may change your mind</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213550/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Liz Conor receives funding from the Australian Research Council</span></em></p>You might look at the task ahead of weaning ourselves off fossil fuels and despair. But we’ve changed energy sources many times before – and it’s never a straightforward process.Liz Conor, ARC Future Fellow, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2140672023-09-21T10:35:53Z2023-09-21T10:35:53ZGrattan on Friday: Albanese government faces an uphill road and angry locals as it drives change to renewables<p>Fire fear is gripping many Australians, with extremely high temperatures for September.</p>
<p>One day this week some 20 schools on the New South Wales south coast were closed, amid rising weather risk. Sydney national parks were shut. Multiple fires broke out in the eastern states.</p>
<p>The nation is bracing. The memory of that horrendous 2019-20 summer is embedded in our psyche. </p>
<p>The Bureau of Meteorology this week formally declared an El Niño event, looking to a hot dry summer. That will put pressure on ageing coal-fired power stations and thus the power system.</p>
<p>Apart from for a small minority, the argument about global warming is over. But the debate still rages about dealing with climate change and, close to home, Australia’s energy transition, which is under way but accompanied by increasing pain and problems. </p>
<p>Labor scored well politically when it issued its pre-election plan for the transition to renewables. It came with an election promise of an average $275 saving on household electricity bills by 2025. The promise will be unattainable, and in the meantime households face sky-high power bills, with only some benefiting from the government’s relief package. </p>
<p>Most people accept our energy system must move from fossil fuels, especially coal, to renewables as soon as practicable. But there are serious obstacles on the ground – literally.</p>
<p>The government uses the “not in my backyard” scare when the opposition proposes nuclear should be added to the energy mix. Now it is confronted by “not in our backyard” resistance from farmers and local communities to the big transmission cables needed to carry the renewable power. As well, there’s a backlash in some areas to wind turbines.</p>
<p>In 2014, then-Treasurer Joe Hockey was ridiculed when he described wind turbines around Lake George (near Canberra) as “a blight on the landscape”. The then opposition environment spokesman, Mark Butler, said Hockey was making “an utterly ridiculous contribution”. Labor can’t afford to laugh anymore. </p>
<p>Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen was in the NSW Hunter region this week to try to calm anger about the government’s declaration of a zone off the coast for future wind projects. Among their objections, locals have raised the harm to birds, sea life and the view. </p>
<p>The South Australian government has argued the proposed Southern Ocean zone for wind farms, off the coast of Victoria and SA, should stop at the Victorian border. </p>
<p>The rows breaking out over power cables and wind turbines are classic examples of major developments clashing with other priorities, whether commercial (tourism, fishing, agriculture), environmental or aesthetic. We’ve seen these battles for decades with mining projects. They’ve now moved into the age of renewables. </p>
<p>Australia is not alone on this issue, which is rearing its head in Britain and elsewhere. The Albanese government’s difficulty is there will be so many breakouts. It remains to be seen whether citizen discontent will translate into voter backlash in particular seats. </p>
<p>Infrastructure Minister Catherine King has felt the heat in her electorate of Ballarat. In a submission earlier this year, made as the local MP, to an Australian Energy Market Operator’s report on the proposed Victoria-New South Wales Interconnector (VNI) West transmission link, she repeated her long-held concerns about the consultative process. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>As Australia continues its transition to net zero, there will be increasing need for new projects,“ she wrote. "In rolling out these projects, it will be important to engage thoroughly and honestly with impacted communities all throughout the process – from project conception, to construction and beyond.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>In July, Bowen announced a “community engagement review” to improve engagement on renewable energy infrastructure upgrades and new developments, to report
by year’s end. </p>
<p>The process is tortuous and often fractious. And, as the Grattan Institute’s energy expert, Tony Wood, <a href="https://theconversation.com/unsexy-but-vital-why-warnings-over-grid-reliability-are-really-about-building-more-transmission-lines-212603">has pointed out</a>, investment in renewables is stalled because of the slowness in getting the transmission grid in place. </p>
<p>The implications are substantial. The government is committed to having renewables generating 82% of our electricity by 2030. The present level is 35%. Wood says: “We are nowhere near where we need to be. We are way behind in time and way over in cost.” </p>
<p>The transition problems are making the opposition bolder in pushing its case to have nuclear power on the agenda. It argues if nuclear could replace some of the retiring coal-fired power stations, the existing grid could be used, reducing the disruption by new cables. But it has produced nothing specific on how nuclear will feature in its policy. Nor is it clear how politically risky raising the nuclear option is for the Coalition. </p>
<p>In an attempted political hit, Bowen this week issued an estimate that replacing coal-fired stations with nuclear would cost $387 billion. Given all the uncertainties, numbers mean little, although most experts maintain the nuclear path would not be economically viable any time soon. Even so, the government suddenly sounds defensive when rejecting even lifting the present ban on nuclear. </p>
<p>Pushed on Monday on the ABC’s Q+A about the ban, Bowen said that would be “a massive distraction. It would take a lot of our public debate”. This seems an odd argument. Whether nuclear power should be considered surely rests on two basic questions: whether the market believes it viable and whether the public considers it acceptable. </p>
<p>At least the government this week had some good news on the gas front: the latest estimates by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission indicate the country will go into early next year with an adequate supply for the domestic market. Treasurer Jim Chalmers was quick to declare the opposition’s “fearmongering” about the government’s imposition of pricing caps had been unjustified. </p>
<p>On the other hand, gas is coming under mounting attack from climate activists, as the government defends it as a transition fuel.</p>
<p>In political terms, the energy transition will put pressure on Labor on several fronts between now and the next election. </p>
<p>The first, and most obvious, is high power bills, feeding into the cost-of-living crisis. </p>
<p>Second, the localised arguments about the infrastructure will continue. </p>
<p>Third, investors will need more reassurance. </p>
<p>Fourth, the efficiency of the energy system must be maintained through difficult times. </p>
<p>And fifth, the government will need to hold the line against the Greens and the more militant parts of the climate movement that will attack it for not going fast enough to meet the climate challenge. </p>
<p>Those are the knowns. One unknown is whether we’ll get a really bad fire season and the implications that would have.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214067/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Most people accept our energy system must move from fossil fuels, especially coal, to renewables as soon as practicable. But there are serious obstacles on the ground – literally.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2134282023-09-19T16:04:52Z2023-09-19T16:04:52ZRenewables are cheaper than ever yet fossil fuel use is still growing – here’s why<p>Wind and solar are the world’s fastest growing energy sources and together generated <a href="https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/global-electricity-review-2023/">12% of global electricity</a> in 2023. The amount of energy produced by <a href="https://gwec.net/globalwindreport2023/">wind</a> and <a href="https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/05/16/a-fate-realized-1-tw-of-solar-to-be-deployed-annually-by-2030/">solar</a> is expected to increase and accelerate.</p>
<p>Wind generated 1 terawatt (TW) for the first time <a href="https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/global-wind-energy-to-top-1-tw-threshold-by-the-end-of-2023/">in 2023</a> – nearly as much as the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/">total installed energy capacity</a> of the US (1.2 TW). Solar broke this threshold <a href="https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/03/15/humans-have-installed-1-terawatt-of-solar-capacity/">in 2022</a>.</p>
<p>So why in the first <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/sb2023_09_adv.pdf">global stocktake</a> of the world’s progress towards limiting warming to 1.5°C did the UN say we’re still not phasing out fossil fuels fast enough?</p>
<h2>Asia’s economic growth powered by coal</h2>
<p>Despite the rapid growth of renewable energy, the most carbon-intensive forms of electricity generation, using coal and natural gas, have risen by <a href="https://ember-climate.org/data/data-tools/data-explorer/">22% and 37% since 2010</a>, respectively. Coal and gas power generation is still the backbone of global energy systems and these fuels are likely to remain dominant for decades to come. Nonetheless, the phase-out of coal (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-13053040">arguably</a> the dirtiest of fossil fuels) is gaining momentum. </p>
<p>During the past decade, the number of new coal power plants built each year <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-worlds-coal-power-pipeline-has-shrunk-by-three-quarters/">has fallen fast</a>. Global coal demand has continued to fall even as the war in <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/91982b4e-26dc-41d5-88b1-4c47ea436882/Coal2022.pdf">Ukraine strained gas supplies</a>.</p>
<p>In the most prosperous OECD countries (or Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), virtually no new coal plants are <a href="https://globalenergymonitor.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Boom-Bust-Coal-2023.pdf">planned or being built</a>, though <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/11/albanese-government-approves-first-new-coal-mine-since-taking-power">new coal mines</a> are still being approved. This is a result of national <a href="https://beyondfossilfuels.org/europes-coal-exit/">policies</a> such as the UK’s decision to <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/end-to-coal-power-brought-forward-to-october-2024">ban coal in power generation</a> from October 2024.</p>
<p>The US has retired many ageing coal plants since the mid-2010s due to the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2019.1641462">low price of shale gas</a>. The country’s coal fleet will continue to shrink as 99% of coal projects are <a href="https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Coal-Cost-Crossover-3.0-One-Pager.pdf">more expensive</a> than new clean energy, thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A row of wind turbines on a desert plain." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549084/original/file-20230919-17-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549084/original/file-20230919-17-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549084/original/file-20230919-17-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549084/original/file-20230919-17-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549084/original/file-20230919-17-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549084/original/file-20230919-17-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549084/original/file-20230919-17-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Increasingly cheap renewables are finally biting into fossil generation in the US.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/wind-turbine-farm-on-desert-land-1994218223">Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This picture is very different in Asia. Here, countries have relied heavily on cheap coal to <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/Cheap-coal-swells-in-Southeast-Asia-foiling-global-green-push">fuel their economies</a>. This is particularly true in China. After adding 27 gigawatts (GW) from coal <a href="https://globalenergymonitor.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Boom-Bust-Coal-2023.pdf">in 2022 alone</a>, China by itself is offsetting the retirement of coal plants elsewhere in the world.</p>
<p>But there are some signs this is changing. The global pipeline for new coal power plants is <a href="https://globalenergymonitor.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Boom-Bust-Coal-2023.pdf">smaller than ever</a> and China and India both pledged to “<a href="https://on.ft.com/45Sh8gL">phase down coal</a>” in 2021 at the Glasgow climate summit.</p>
<p>So, rapidly increasing renewable energy hasn’t cut coal and gas consumption at the same rate because humankind is using a lot more electricity than we used to, especially in Asia. In the last 20 years, the use of electricity in Europe and North America has remained largely constant. </p>
<p>Here, renewable energy has slowly eaten into the proportion of energy generated by fossil fuels, while all other energy sources (nuclear, hydro, biomass) have remained about the same. In Asia, electricity demand has <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/06/southeast-asia-growth-energy-security/">tripled since the 2000s</a>, with the bulk of this energy coming from fossil fuels.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548593/original/file-20230915-27-ethhrq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A line graph showing the proportion of energy generated by different sources in Europe, North America and Asia." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548593/original/file-20230915-27-ethhrq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548593/original/file-20230915-27-ethhrq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548593/original/file-20230915-27-ethhrq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548593/original/file-20230915-27-ethhrq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548593/original/file-20230915-27-ethhrq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548593/original/file-20230915-27-ethhrq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548593/original/file-20230915-27-ethhrq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fossil fuels remain dominant sources of energy in all regions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/global-electricity-review-2023/">Ember</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Wind and solar are replacing coal and gas</h2>
<p>Western economies have made progress in replacing fossil fuels (and coal in particular) with renewables during the last decade. In Europe and North America, wind has become a vital energy source during the winter months when energy demand peaks. And when the wind isn’t blowing, gas generation <a href="https://reports.electricinsights.co.uk/q1-2021/when-the-wind-goes-gas-fills-in-the-gap/">fills the gaps</a>.</p>
<p>Solar energy, when combined with batteries which can store excess electricity, is also proving to be a cheaper option than both gas and coal in certain parts of the world. In Australia, the industry association Australian Clean Energy Council found that solar panels and batteries are <a href="https://assets.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/documents/resources/reports/battery-storage-the-new-clean-peaker.pdf">30% cheaper</a> than gas power plants during peak demand periods. </p>
<p>A Bloomberg NEF investigation found that batteries alone are <a href="https://www.energy-storage.news/bloombergnef-already-cheaper-to-install-new-build-battery-storage-than-peaking-plants/">already cheaper</a> than gas power plants during these times. In fact, solar panels may be generating electricity more cheaply than the grid in some cases.</p>
<p>In India, the cost of generating electricity from solar and storing it in batteries to use during high demand hours has <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/Swaminomics/cleaner-and-now-cheaper-solar-power-beats-coal/">lower costs</a> than existing coal plants. Combined solar and battery plants can activate during peak hours and turn off again when demand drops, regardless of whether the wind is blowing or the sun shining. </p>
<p>In the US, almost half of new energy projects waiting to connect to the grid combine <a href="https://emp.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/queued_up_2022_04-06-2023.pdf">solar and wind with storage</a> technologies, allowing renewables to produce electricity on demand regardless of the weather.</p>
<h2>Energy demand is outpacing wind and solar</h2>
<p>Wind and solar has only slowed the rise in fossil fuel burning. This is particularly true for China, India, Thailand and Vietnam. These economies have grown rapidly and so has their power demand. </p>
<p>The replacement with renewables in developed economies is too slow to offset this increase on a global scale. <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/10/13/asia-sails-into-headwinds-from-rate-hikes-war-and-china-slowdown">Cooling economic activity</a> in Asia – <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/08/09/why-china-s-economy-is-slowing-and-why-it-matters/1accc256-3698-11ee-ac4e-e707870e43db_story.html">especially China</a> – might reverse this trend, making a replacement pattern similar to Europe and North America feasible.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A bar chart showing additional power demand and supply from different sources between 2022 and 2025." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548594/original/file-20230915-25-5x2vjh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548594/original/file-20230915-25-5x2vjh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548594/original/file-20230915-25-5x2vjh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548594/original/file-20230915-25-5x2vjh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548594/original/file-20230915-25-5x2vjh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548594/original/file-20230915-25-5x2vjh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548594/original/file-20230915-25-5x2vjh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Demand for electricity has exceeded supply from renewables.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2022">International Energy Agency (IEA)/Malte Jansen</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While the warnings in the UN’s stocktake should be heeded, the outlook is not entirely gloomy. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) in a <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2022">report</a> from December 2022, virtually all new demand between now and 2025 will be satisfied by renewable energy. Wind and solar are expected to supply the bulk of this additional electricity, owing to their <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/renewables-cheapest-energy-source/">low cost and high availability</a>.</p>
<p>With new wind and solar now cheaper than existing fossil fuel generation, it is only a matter of time before they fully replace all new energy demand first, and replace existing fossil fuels after – even in fast-growing economies. However, as the UN report shows, this process needs to be significantly sped up to avert catastrophic warming.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Malte Jansen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite the meteoric rise of wind and solar, fossil energy sources have met most new demand in fast-growing economies.Malte Jansen, Lecturer in Energy and Sustainability, SPRU, University of Sussex Business School, University of SussexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2098942023-09-01T13:43:36Z2023-09-01T13:43:36ZPulverised fuel ash: how we can recycle the dirty byproduct from coal-fired power stations<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545549/original/file-20230830-15-9481l8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4031%2C2576&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The pulverised fuel ash from coal-fired power stations is typically stored in landfill.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/coal-fired-power-station-cooling-towers-110448884">Sponner/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The ash from burning coal in coal-fired power stations lies in thousands of landfills around the world. This waste material, generally considered a hazard, is now being put to good use in the construction industry.</p>
<p><a href="https://bloombergcoalcountdown.com">More than 6,000</a> coal-fired power stations produce this powdery byproduct, which is properly known as “pulverised fuel ash” (PFA) or “fly ash”. Traditionally, it was released into the atmosphere from the smoke stack after the coal was burned, but, because of its effect on air quality, it is now captured and stored in landfills. </p>
<p><a href="https://pure.southwales.ac.uk/en/publications/effects-of-lysinibacillus-sphaericus-on-physicomechanical-and-che">Our research</a> focuses on how we can recycle and make best use of these types of dirty byproducts for the sake of the environment.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A small heap of a brown/grey ash." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545562/original/file-20230830-23-wovt73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545562/original/file-20230830-23-wovt73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=280&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545562/original/file-20230830-23-wovt73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=280&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545562/original/file-20230830-23-wovt73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=280&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545562/original/file-20230830-23-wovt73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545562/original/file-20230830-23-wovt73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545562/original/file-20230830-23-wovt73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pulverised fuel ash or fly ash is a byproduct from coal-fired power stations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/fly-ash-coal-waste-used-concrete-1934812655">alegga/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://www.greenbiz.com/article/how-decarbonize-concrete-and-build-better-future#:%7E:text=Concrete%20is%20the%20most%2Dconsumed,and%20demand%20for%20infrastructure%20grows.">current demand</a> for concrete worldwide is around 14 billion cubic metres annually. This is projected to increase by 43% to 20 billion cubic metres by 2050. The impact of the carbon dioxide emissions (<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02612-5">8% globally</a>) that is associated with this increase, against the backdrop of the current environmental crisis, is immense. </p>
<p>There is a dire need for a change in lifestyle and for tighter environmental regulation of industrial operations and processes. This should include a serious mitigation of the worsening environmental landscape. Increasing the use of industrial waste and byproduct materials is one such strategy. </p>
<p>Some of the most abundant global waste streams result from the many years of coal mining, so the role that can be played by re-using coal waste, including PFA, is significant. </p>
<p>And this idea is based on old technology if you consider how the Romans used ash. The dome of the Pantheon in Rome, built in AD128, as well as the Colosseum, are examples of successful structures built with <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/why-modern-mortar-crumbles-roman-concrete-lasts-millennia">volcanic ash-based concrete</a>. </p>
<h2>Portland cement</h2>
<p>PFA can be blended with <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/portland-cement">Portland cement</a> to make concrete. That’s the most common type of cement in general use around the world and is a basic ingredient of concrete, but also mortar, stucco and some grout. Portland cement is a hydraulic cement, which means that it reacts with water to form a paste that binds sand and rock together, creating concrete. Around <a href="https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/221654/best-ways-carbon-emissions-from-cement/">3.5 billion tonnes</a> of Portland cement are produced annually.</p>
<p>The problem, though, is that producing Portland cement uses a lot of energy and also precious natural resources. You must quarry the raw materials, which not only damages the landscape but also results in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542435121001975?dgcid=author">emissions</a> of up to 622kg of carbon dioxide per tonne of cement. </p>
<p>Lessening the impact of Portland cement on the environment is therefore vital. PFA is the most attractive byproduct for this purpose, due to its abundance and low cost. Also, if it is properly used in combination with Portland cement, it can result in stronger and <a href="http://www.xpublication.com/index.php/jcec/article/view/446">more durable concrete</a>.</p>
<p>However, as more coal-fired power stations are decommissioned and fewer come into operation worldwide, stockpiles of PFA become depleted. This means we will need to use the material more efficiently in the future. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large industrial site featuring several buildings and chimneys" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545915/original/file-20230901-29-xrkzp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545915/original/file-20230901-29-xrkzp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545915/original/file-20230901-29-xrkzp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545915/original/file-20230901-29-xrkzp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545915/original/file-20230901-29-xrkzp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545915/original/file-20230901-29-xrkzp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545915/original/file-20230901-29-xrkzp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The now decommissioned Aberthaw power station in south Wales. On the right of the picture is the grass-topped ash mound.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ben_salter/46572448115/in/photostream/">Ben Salter/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Attention will have to shift to different types of fly ash or unburnt colliery waste. But coal mining waste, either from current or past mining activities, will continue to feature in the construction industry for a long time.</p>
<p>And besides concrete, there are also <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/296519/LIT_8272_420835.pdf">other ways</a> in which we can recycle PFA. This includes using it to improve the properties of soils, making abrasives such as sandpaper and grinding wheels, and using it in the manufacturing of a variety of products, such as plastics, paints and rubber.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption"></span>
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209894/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Kinuthia receives funding from industry, research councils, and government sources for the furtherance of research into sustainable construction</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Oti receives receives funding from industry, research councils, and government sources for the furtherance of research into sustainable construction</span></em></p>Pulverised fuel ash can be recycled and used to manufacture concrete as well as other products.John Kinuthia, Professor and Manager of the Advanced Materials Testing Centre (AMTeC), University of South WalesJonathan Oti, Associate Professor at the Advanced Materials Testing Centre (AMTeC), University of South WalesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2103842023-08-21T02:59:08Z2023-08-21T02:59:08ZWhat harm could one coal mine do? Plenty – 1.7 million Hiroshima bombs of heat for starters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543591/original/file-20230821-101875-71dfbc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=37%2C18%2C6193%2C4128&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This year, the Australian government <a href="https://theconversation.com/tanya-plibersek-killed-off-clive-palmers-coal-mine-its-an-australian-first-but-it-may-never-happen-again-199512">rejected</a> Clive Palmer’s coal mine proposal – but <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/initiative/coal-mine-tracker/">approved</a> three others. Over 100 more <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/new-fossil-fuel-projects-in-australia-2023/">fossil fuel projects</a> are in the decision pipeline. </p>
<p>Why are we still approving coal projects when climate impacts are intensifying? There is, as the International Energy Agency has pointed out, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-15/safeguard-mechanism-australian-government-drive-down-emissions/101844050">no place</a> for new fossil fuels if we have a chance of holding global heating to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Our existing fossil fuel infrastructure <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/resources/spm-headline-statements">is enough</a> to blow our remaining carbon budget. </p>
<p>Unusually, Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek and her department were required to <a href="https://epbcpublicportal.awe.gov.au/all-referrals/project-referral-summary/?id=545d2280-ebcb-ea11-97dc-00505684324c">account for climate impacts</a> in a recent decision.</p>
<p>They decided the climate effects did not have “relevant impact”. One of the key <a href="https://epbcpublicportal.awe.gov.au/all-referrals/project-referral-summary/project-decision/?id=e16bf985-c4ef-ed11-8849-00224818a6aa">reasons</a> they gave for this was that the emissions from burning the coal from a single mine will, they claim, have a “very small” impact on warming – just 0.00024°C over the lifetime of the mine.</p>
<p>As a physicist, this argument does not stack up. What seems like a minuscule amount of warming to a politician is, to scientists, very concerning. It’s no wonder environmental organisations are filing lawsuits to try to stop these mines. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542723/original/file-20230815-15-pgt8pu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="coal power" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542723/original/file-20230815-15-pgt8pu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542723/original/file-20230815-15-pgt8pu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542723/original/file-20230815-15-pgt8pu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542723/original/file-20230815-15-pgt8pu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542723/original/file-20230815-15-pgt8pu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542723/original/file-20230815-15-pgt8pu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542723/original/file-20230815-15-pgt8pu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It might not sound like a lot of extra warming – but on a planetary scale, it’s huge.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>One new mine is the same as millions of nuclear bombs of heat</h2>
<p>Right now, Plibersek and her department are weighing up <a href="https://epbcpublicportal.awe.gov.au/all-referrals/project-referral-summary/?id=545d2280-ebcb-ea11-97dc-00505684324c">final approval</a> for the expansion of the Mount Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales’ Hunter Valley. If approved, it would let the mine’s owners MACH Energy Australia double its extraction rate to 21 million tonnes of coal per year. </p>
<p>So far, the project has breezed through environmental approvals. But how can Australia’s environment minister reason that new coal mines won’t do too much damage to the climate? </p>
<p><a href="https://epbcpublicportal.awe.gov.au/all-referrals/project-referral-summary/project-decision/?id=e16bf985-c4ef-ed11-8849-00224818a6aa">Plibersek gives</a> two main arguments. One is the assumption that if we don’t dig up fossil fuels, someone else will. Known as “the drug dealer’s defence”, this rationale has been rejected in a growing number of fossil fuel court cases, for example in <a href="http://envlaw.com.au/gloucester-resources-case/">in NSW</a>, <a href="https://www.gtlaw.com.au/knowledge/mining-leases-rejected-due-human-rights-emissions-impacts-waratah-coal-v-youth-verdict">Queensland</a> and the <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/9/19/16332952/court-ruling-coal-climate-change">United States</a>.</p>
<p>The second – the “very small” impact on warming – is worth a closer look.</p>
<p>By the mining company’s calculation, the expanded project will add 535 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) to our atmosphere over the lifetime of the mine. That’s about a year’s worth of Australia’s entire domestic emissions.</p>
<p>The department took this CO₂e figure and estimated how much this would change Earth’s global temperature. That’s where they got the “very small” figure of 0.00024°C.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/earths-energy-budget-is-not-in-balance-should-we-be-concerned-204729">Earth's energy budget is not in balance. Should we be concerned?</a>
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<p>To a politician, this small number may seem insignificant. But to a physicist it is truly remarkable. What it actually means is we are able to alter an entire planet’s temperature with this single mine extension.</p>
<p>Changing a planet’s temperature takes an <a href="https://theconversation.com/two-trillion-tonnes-of-greenhouse-gases-25-billion-nukes-of-heat-are-we-pushing-earth-out-of-the-goldilocks-zone-202619">enormous amount</a> of energy. </p>
<p>If it weren’t for the <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/19/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect/">greenhouse effect</a>, Earth would be too cold for life. The problem is humans have been steadily increasing the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, causing Earth to retain more and more of the Sun’s vast energy, heating the planet to dangerous levels.</p>
<p>Burning fossil fuels is responsible for most of this. </p>
<p>Our planet is now warming at a <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature">rate</a> of 0.018°C per year. </p>
<p>If we compare that to the department’s figure of 0.00024°C, we see the total warming effect from the Mount Pleasant mine would be about 1.3% of one year’s global warming.</p>
<p>Doesn’t sound like much? Consider this. Human activity is causing about 7.8 zettajoules of extra heat to be <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1675/2023/">added</a> to the Earth’s climate system every year. So, 1.3% of a year’s global warming gives roughly 0.1 zettajoules worth of extra heat through burning the output of an expanded Mount Pleasant coal mine. </p>
<p>Now, 0.1 zettajoules is 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 joules of energy. This number is so large we can’t relate to it. We can think of it instead as around 1.7 million Hiroshima bombs worth of extra heat. From one single mine extension.</p>
<p>So, it is not a “very small” amount of energy. And that’s just one mine. If the 25 proposed new coal mines and three recently approved projects go ahead, they would add <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/initiative/coal-mine-tracker/">12,600 million tonnes</a> of CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere. That, in turn, would trap heat equivalent to roughly 43 million Hiroshima bombs. And this doesn’t even count the planned <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-116-new-coal-oil-and-gas-projects-equate-to-215-new-coal-power-stations-202135">gas and oil</a> projects, or projects approved at the <a href="https://michaelwest.com.au/transparency-net-zero-new-fossil-fuel-approvals-by-environment-minister-tanya-plibersek-on-the-up/">state level</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/two-trillion-tonnes-of-greenhouse-gases-25-billion-nukes-of-heat-are-we-pushing-earth-out-of-the-goldilocks-zone-202619">Two trillion tonnes of greenhouse gases, 25 billion nukes of heat: are we pushing Earth out of the Goldilocks zone?</a>
</strong>
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</p>
<hr>
<h2>We can’t claim we don’t know</h2>
<p>New fossil fuel project approvals at a time when global heating is accelerating seem like a remarkable disconnect. </p>
<p>It’s for this reason we’re seeing a spike in climate lawsuits. The Environment Council of Central Queensland is taking Plibersek to court, aided by Environmental Justice Australia. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/1uH_NW4mhAc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This NASA visualisation shows carbon dioxide being added to Earth’s atmosphere over the course of the year 2021, split into four major contributors: fossil fuels in orange, burning biomass in red, land ecosystems in green, and the ocean in blue. The dots on the surface also show how atmospheric carbon dioxide is also being absorbed by land ecosystems in green and the ocean in blue.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Central to their case will be <a href="https://livingwonders.org.au/">the claim</a> the minister acted unlawfully when she “refused to accept the climate harm these projects are likely to cause, as outlined in thousands of scientific reports, including from the IPCC and her own department.” </p>
<p>The lawsuit has stopped the Mount Pleasant extension and Whitehaven’s Narrabri mine from proceeding further until the case <a href="https://envirojustice.org.au/blog/2023/06/23/federal-court-date-set-for-landmark-climate-litigation">has been heard</a>. </p>
<p>We can’t predict the outcome of the case – it could go either way. </p>
<p>But we can predict the outcome of new fossil fuel projects. Dig up coal, burn it, heat the planet. We can’t argue our way out of the laws of physics. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tanya-plibersek-killed-off-clive-palmers-coal-mine-its-an-australian-first-but-it-may-never-happen-again-199512">Tanya Plibersek killed off Clive Palmer's coal mine. It's an Australian first – but it may never happen again</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210384/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Campbell receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is affiliated with Australian Parents for Climate Action (AP4CA). </span></em></p>Australia is approving coal mine expansions because of their “very small” impact on global heating. It doesn’t stack up.Simon Campbell, Senior research fellow and lecturer, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2063432023-06-07T08:50:39Z2023-06-07T08:50:39ZSouth Africa’s power crisis will continue until 2025 - and blackouts will take 5 years to phase out<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530127/original/file-20230605-15-fk3adz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A power outage stops play during a match between two leading rugby teams in Pretoria in early June. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by Johan Rynners/Gallo Images/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa is in the middle of a <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-05-18-eskoms-stage-8-warning-is-a-chilling-prospect-for-sas-economy/">severe electricity crisis</a>, with enforced power cuts that have worsened every year. Electricity is sometimes unavailable for 10 hours a day. The shortfall is the consequence of frequent breakdowns at its ageing <a href="https://www.esi-africa.com/features-analysis/loadshedding-in-winter-whats-that-going-to-be-like/">coal power plants, which constitute 74% of the country’s generating capacity</a>.</p>
<p>In theory, improving the performance and reliability of the existing coal plants would resolve the power crisis. This <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/mantashe-claims-eskoms-power-crisis-can-be-fixed-in-6-to-12-months-2023-01-13">remedy is promoted in some quarters</a>. But it’s easier said than done. To function satisfactorily, many of the plants would require a complete overhaul, which would be both time consuming and prohibitively costly.</p>
<p>Estimates suggest that South Africa <a href="https://www.esi-africa.com/industry-sectors/generation/eskoms-own-figures-show-the-power-generation-crisis-is-worsening/">needs around 6,000MW of extra capacity</a> to overcome the current deficit. The following sections explain why I predict it is likely to require as long as five years to eradicate this shortfall, though partial improvement should already be felt by the end of 2024.</p>
<p>Building new coal, nuclear or gas plants is still being considered to improve future power supply, but these typically require construction times of 10 years. They would therefore not play a role in the short- to medium-term period under consideration, and I don’t discuss them further here.</p>
<h2>Time lines for fixing existing power stations</h2>
<p>The 4,800MW <a href="https://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/465317-eskom-gives-update-on-medupi-and-kusile-power-plants-and-its-not-good-news.html">Kusile and its twin Medupi</a> are the two largest power stations in South Africa, and among the biggest coal plants in the world. Their construction was commissioned in 2007. At the time they were expected to guarantee South Africa ample electricity supply and allow the decommissioning of older plants.</p>
<p>But the construction of the plants <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2016-07-07-medupi-kusile-and-the-massive-costtime-overrun/">proceeded disastrously</a>. Costs escalated to more than double the initial projections and construction was much slower than anticipated. One of Kusile’s six units has still not been finished. </p>
<p>Calamity also struck twice in the first few years of operation. The damage caused by an <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2022-05-19-watch-this-is-what-led-to-the-disastrous-explosion-at-unit-4-of-eskoms-medupi-plant/">explosion at Medupi’s Unit 4</a> in 2021 resulted in so much damage that the unit not yet been brought back on line. Then in October last year a <a href="https://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/467737-why-kusile-power-stations-chimney-broke.html">chimney at Kusile collapsed</a>. This forced the closure of three Kusile units.</p>
<p>The 1,800MW Koeberg nuclear power plant has in recent decades contributed <a href="https://www.csir.co.za/csir-releases-annual-power-sector-statistics">about 5% of South Africa’s electricity</a>. It will reach the end of its initially projected 40-year lifespan in 2024. To extend its operating licence for a further 20 years, the National Nuclear Regulator requires specific part replacements and upgrades, the most significant being the installation of new steam generators.</p>
<p>These operations were initially projected to require 10 months (five months for each of Koeberg’s two units) to be completed. The attempted upgrade of the first unit early last year <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-nuclear-sector-has-failed-its-test-the-koeberg-nuclear-plant-life-extension-188013">was aborted</a> after it became clear that preparations for the project were incomplete.</p>
<p>The second attempt began in January this year. But it has already been acknowledged that this stage, initially projected to end in June, <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/economy/eskom-to-delay-return-of-koeberg-unit-1-by-at-least-45-days-5e3a83eb-2bb7-4706-a15b-94486b6bb5cd">will not be completed until at least August</a>. After that a similar process will commence for the other unit, and this will be followed by a 200 day planned outage.</p>
<p>Koeberg is therefore effectively only running at half-power, and this state of affairs will likely <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-05-17-further-delay-in-life-extension-of-koeberg-nuclear-reactor-worsens-power-outlook/">continue into 2025</a>.</p>
<h2>Gas power ships</h2>
<p>Amid clear signs of a deepening power crisis, the minister of mineral resources and energy in 2021 announced <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/south-africa-adds-1bn-solar-battery-project-portfolio-to-rmipppp-preferred-bidder-list-2021-06-02">successful bids to supply 2,000MW of emergency power</a>. The bulk of this award, 1,200MW, was allocated to Turkey’s Karpowership, a company with a fleet of floating gas plants to be shipped in and moored in three of South Africa’s ports – Richards Bay, Nqurha and Saldanha.</p>
<p>The award attracted controversy, with accusations that the terms of reference of this bidding round amounted to <a href="https://amabhungane.org/stories/210428-powerships-losing-bidder-claims-blatant-corruption-fingers-mantashe-associate/">an unfair advantage</a> to Karpowership. Court challenges queried the legality of the <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-12-22-karpowerships-environmental-hazards-controversially-reduced-in-new-eia-specs/">environmental impact approvals</a> too.</p>
<p>The key objection to the Karpowership deal is that it would cement what is painted as an arrangement for temporary emergency power for a 20-year period.</p>
<p>This opposition and delays in some other projects reaching financial close mean that the emergency programme is at least a year behind schedule. Some might come on line at the end of 2023, but the added capacity would decrease South Africa’s electricity shortfall by only a moderate amount.</p>
<h2>Renewables</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ipp-renewables.co.za/">Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme</a> was designed to enable the production of mostly solar and wind energy by private developers, who would then sell it to the power utility, Eskom.</p>
<p>Given the intermittency of sunshine and wind, solar and wind farms in South Africa on average typically only produce <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/renewables-statistics-point-to-slow-response-to-south-africas-power-constraints-2020-06-22">about 25% (solar) and 35% (wind)</a> of what they can generate under ideal conditions. Meeting a national shortfall of 6,000MW with one of these technologies alone would therefore require solar farms with a total capacity of 24,000MW, or wind farms with a total capacity of 18,000MW.</p>
<p>Two rounds of establishing <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/minister-gwede-mantashe-announces-5th-bid-window-renewable-energy-ipp-procurement-programme">new plants under the renewables programme are under way</a>. The first of these should see 1,000MW of solar power and 1,600MW of wind power come on stream by early 2025, while the second round will see a further 1,000MW of solar projects completed about a year later.</p>
<p>A mega-initiative to install <a href="https://www.news24.com/fin24/climate_future/energy/sa-weighs-mega-renewable-energy-tender-to-curb-load-shedding-20230425">15,000MW of solar and wind power</a> has recently been touted by the new electricity minister. While this would massively ameliorate the power scarcity, it would be very challenging to construct such a large number of solar plants simultaneously, due to potential import bottlenecks and a shortage of skilled installers. So while some of these plants might be ready by late 2025, the entire programme is likely to require five years.</p>
<h2>Domestic and private solar installations</h2>
<p>The greatest progress in accelerating electricity production has been achieved by <a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-trend-to-get-off-the-grid-is-gathering-pace-but-total-independence-is-still-a-way-off-197924">small-scale solar power installation initiatives</a>, ranging from municipal or private enterprise solar farms to solar panels on household roofs. Although this component is still comparatively small, late last year the president announced that <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/embedded-generation-project-pipeline-stands-at-9-gw-ramaphosa-2022-11-28">projects amounting to a total of 9,000MW were under development</a>.</p>
<p>Despite the major growth in this sphere, the rollout of private solar installations is hampered by the same constraints faced by the renewables programmes: import bottlenecks and skills shortages. While municipalities and smaller entities able to get such programmes working will experience considerable relief from power cuts, these initiatives will only moderately cut the national shortfall.</p>
<h2>The timeframe for a possible recovery</h2>
<p>Any remedies to the South African power crisis initiated now or already under development are not going to have a significant impact this year. The projections also assume that no major setback like last year’s Kusile accident is imminent.</p>
<p>1,000-2,000MW might be added to the generating capacity towards the end of the year, but a substantial decrease in the power shortage will only be possible towards the end of 2024, if Kusile repairs are then completed as expected, and when several renewable energy initiatives should come on line.</p>
<p>Ending power cuts completely will probably take another five years if the infusion of more solar and wind capacity proceeds as currently planned.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206343/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hartmut Winkler receives funding from the South African National Research Foundation. </span></em></p>Any remedies to the South African power crisis initiated now – or under development – are not going to have a significant impact this year.Hartmut Winkler, Professor of Physics, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2061012023-05-24T13:42:03Z2023-05-24T13:42:03ZCorruption in South Africa: former CEO’s explosive book exposes how state power utility was destroyed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527785/original/file-20230523-19-yugb19.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former Eskom CEO Andre de Ruyter.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">PenguinRandomHouse</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>One repeated theme of the <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.co.za/book/truth-power-my-three-years-inside-eskom/9781776390625#:%7E:text=De%20Ruyter%20candidly%20reflects%20on,to%20speak%20truth%20to%20power">memoir</a> Truth to Power: My Three Years Inside Eskom, by Andre de Ruyter, former CEO of South Africa’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-electricity-supply-whats-tripping-the-switch-151331">troubled power utility</a>, Eskom, is that “negligence and carelessness had become cemented into the organisation”. </p>
<p>Dirt piled up at even the newest power stations until it damaged equipment, which stopped working – and some equipment disappeared beneath a layer of ash.</p>
<p>Integrity had been displaced by greed and crime: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Corruption had metastasised to permeate much of the organisation. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>As a political scientist who has, among other topics, followed corruption and kleptocracy, this book ranks among the more informative.</p>
<p>De Ruyter (or his ghost writer) delivers a pacey, racy adventure <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.co.za/book/truth-power-my-three-years-inside-eskom/9781776390625">thriller</a>. Chapter after chapter reads like a horror story about Eskom, whose failure to generate enough electricity consistently for <a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-and-food-safety-how-to-avoid-illness-during-loadshedding-200586">the past 15</a> years has <a href="https://www.investec.com/en_za/focus/economy/sa-s-load-shedding-how-the-sectors-are-being-affected.html">hobbled the economy</a>. </p>
<p>The book is also a sobering indication that parts of South Africa now fester with organised crime.</p>
<p>This book merits its place alongside <a href="https://www.loot.co.za/product/crispian-olver-how-to-steal-a-city/jywy-5080-g730?PPC=Y&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIgZaS7pbE3QIVS7DtCh0EGQXfEAAYASAAEgLszPD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds">How to Steal a City</a> and <a href="https://jacana.co.za/product/how-to-steal-a-country-state-capture-and-hopes-for-the-future-in-south-africa/">How to Steal a Country</a>. These two books chronicle how corruption undermined respectively a city and a country to the level where they became dysfunctional.</p>
<h2>Brazen looting</h2>
<p>Another take-away is the devastating indictment of De Ruyter’s immediate predecessors as CEO, <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/heritage/matshela-koko/">Matshela Koko</a> and <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/heritage/brian-molefe/">Brian Molefe</a>. They appear as incompetent managers who ran into the ground what the Financial Times of London had praised as the world’s best state-owned enterprise as recently as 2001. Both <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/live-former-eskom-boss-matshela-koko-arrested-on-corruption-charges-20221027">Koko</a> and <a href="https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/molefe-singh-back-in-palm-ridge-specialised-commercial-crimes-court/">Molefe</a> have been charged with corruption – at Eskom and the transport parastatal Transet, respectively.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explosive-revelations-about-south-africas-power-utility-why-new-electricity-minister-should-heed-the-words-of-former-eskom-ceo-201508">Explosive revelations about South Africa's power utility: why new electricity minister should heed the words of former Eskom CEO</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The standard joke about corruption is “Mr Ten Percent” – meaning a middleman who adds 10% onto the price of everything passing through his hands. Under Koko and Molefe, this had allegedly ballooned into “Mr Ten Thousand Percent”. </p>
<p>For example, De Ruyter writes that Eskom was just stopped in the nick of time from paying a middleman R238,000 for a cleaning mop. </p>
<p>Corruption focused on the procurement chain. One middleman bought knee-pads for R150 (US$7,80) and sold them to Eskom for R80,000 (US$4,200). Another bought a knee-pad for R4,025 (US$209) and sold it to Eskom for R934,950 (US$48,544). The same applied to toilet rolls and rubbish bags. One inevitable consequence of corruption on such a scale was that Eskom’s debt, which was R40 billion (US$2.076 billion) in 2007 (the year that former president Jacob Zuma came to power), ballooned to R483 billion (US$25 billion) by 2020 – which incurred R31 billion (US$160 million) in annual finance charges.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Book cover showing a Caucasian man." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527730/original/file-20230523-27-r4nxs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527730/original/file-20230523-27-r4nxs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=920&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527730/original/file-20230523-27-r4nxs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=920&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527730/original/file-20230523-27-r4nxs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=920&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527730/original/file-20230523-27-r4nxs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1156&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527730/original/file-20230523-27-r4nxs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1156&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527730/original/file-20230523-27-r4nxs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1156&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">PenguinRandomHouse</span></span>
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<p>De Ruyter reveals that the “presidential” cartel (meaning one of the local mafias) pillaged Matla power station, the “Mesh-Kings” cartel Duvha power station, the “Legendaries” cartel Tutuka power station, and the “Chief” cartel Majuba power station. He writes that the going rate for bribes at Kusile power station is R200,000 (US$10,377) to falsify the delivery of one truckload of good quality coal. <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/special-investigating-unit-secure-another-preservation-order-matter-related-corruption">Kusile</a> is one of the two giant new coal-fired power stations which Eskom is relying on to end power cuts.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-bailout-of-eskom-wont-end-power-cuts-splitting-up-the-utility-can-as-other-countries-have-shown-200490">South Africa's bailout of Eskom won't end power cuts: splitting up the utility can, as other countries have shown</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>The book says a senior officer at the <a href="https://www.saps.gov.za/dpci/index.php">Hawks</a>, the police’s priority crimes investigation units, tipped off De Ruyter how he was blocked in all his attempts to combat corruption at Eskom. Senior police officers, at least one prosecutor, and a senior magistrate, have also been bribed by the gangs. </p>
<h2>Noncomformist</h2>
<p>Eskom had 13 CEOs and acting CEOs in 13 years. Twenty-eight candidates, most of them black, rejected head-hunters’ offers to become CEO of Eskom. De Ruyter who was previously CEO of Nampak, took a pay cut (to R7 million) to accept the job, in the hope of accelerating Eskom’s transition from coal to renewables.</p>
<p>At the time of his appointment some commentators alleged that he was an African National Congress (ANC) cadre deployed to Eskom. The ANC’s <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321223498_The_African_National_Congress_ANC_and_the_Cadre_Deployment_Policy_in_the_Postapartheid_South_Africa_A_Product_of_Democratic_Centralisation_or_a_Recipe_for_a_Constitutional_Crisis">cadre deployment</a> policy is aimed at ensuring that all the levers of power are in loyal party hands – often regardless of ability and probity. But De Ruyter came <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/anc-claims-de-ruyter-is-trying-to-tarnish-its-image-ahead-of-elections-in-2024-20230426">into conflict</a> with the ruling party.</p>
<p>What caught De Ruyter out was the viciousness of the political attacks on him: smears of racism and financial impropriety. He had to devote many hours of office time to refuting them: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>occupying that seat at Megawatt Park comes with political baggage. </p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="https://za.geoview.info/eskom_megawatt_park,32555009w">Megawatt Park</a> is Eskom’s head office in Johannesburg. </p>
<p>The book’s early chapters summarise how he was one of those Afrikaners with Dutch parents, who did not conform entirely to apartheid norms. The Afrikaner <em>volk</em> imposed the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/apartheid">apartheid</a> regime onto South Africa for 42 years. In his high school years he became a card-carrying member of the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Progressive-Federal-Party">Progressive Federal Party</a>, a liberal anti-apartheid opposition party, antecedent of the Democratic Alliance, which is now the official opposition to the governing party. </p>
<h2>Poisoning</h2>
<p>De Ruyter’s book mentions organising a routine Eskom stakeholders’ meeting at a guesthouse in Mpumalanga province. </p>
<p>To save time, he ordered that food be served on plates to table places, instead of buffet arrangements. The guesthouse management refused, due to fear of facilitating poisoning one or more guests – only buffet arrangements could thwart that. </p>
<p>He says that in Tshwane (Pretoria), the seat of government, the National Prosecution Authority no longer orders takeaway lunches for delivery to their premises. Instead, standard procedure is that a staff member buys lunches for all at random take-away shops. </p>
<p>This sinister development culminated in De Ruyter himself being poisoned with cyanide in his coffee in his office, demonstrating how mafia-type gangs had recruited at least one Eskom headquarters staff member.</p>
<h2>Unintended consequences</h2>
<p>In several places De Ruyter also touches on other issues. The unintended consequence of some government policies, such as localisation and <a href="https://www.treasury.gov.za/comm_media/press/2022/2022110801%20Media%20Statement%20-%20PPP%20Regulations%202022.pdf">preferential procurement</a>, is that it costs Eskom two and a half times more to pay for each kilometre of transmission cable than it costs <a href="https://www.nampower.com.na/">Nampower</a> Namibia’s power utility, just across the border. </p>
<p>What stands out from this memoir is that the success of a company demands that a CEO, managers, artisans, guards, and cleaners all take the attitude that the buck stops with them – seven days a week – and act accordingly.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206101/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keith Gottschalk is a member of the African National Congress, but writes this review in his professional capacity as a political scientist.</span></em></p>The book shows how parts of South Africa now fester with organised crime.Keith Gottschalk, Political Scientist, University of the Western CapeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2033922023-05-15T12:33:42Z2023-05-15T12:33:42ZWhy don’t rocks burn?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523325/original/file-20230427-232-11japl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=44%2C0%2C5000%2C3308&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Jharia coal field in India has been on fire underground since 1916.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-the-village-liloripathra-that-is-located-on-the-top-of-news-photo/1227824345">Jonas Gratzer/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/curious-kids-us-74795">Curious Kids</a> is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to <a href="mailto:curiouskidsus@theconversation.com">curiouskidsus@theconversation.com</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<blockquote>
<p>Why don’t rocks burn? – Luke, age 4, New Market, New Hampshire</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>While many rocks don’t burn, some of them do. It depends on what the rocks are made of – and that’s related to how they were formed.</p>
<p>There are three main rock types: <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-are-igneous-rocks">igneous</a>, <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-are-sedimentary-rocks">sedimentary</a> and <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-are-metamorphic-rocks">metamorphic</a>. These rocks are made of minerals that all have different characteristics. Some will melt into <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-difference-between-magma-and-lava">magma or lava</a> – super-hot, liquid rock – when they are exposed to heat. Others will catch fire.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Rocks can look alike, but one rock is not like another.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Rocks that burn when they get heated up <a href="https://www.grc.nasa.gov/www/k-12/airplane/combst1.html">are combusting</a>. This means that elements within the rocks are reacting with oxygen in the air to produce heat and light, in the form of flames. </p>
<p>The elements <a href="https://www.rsc.org/periodic-table/element/16/sulfur">sulfur</a>, <a href="https://www.rsc.org/periodic-table/element/6/carbon">carbon</a> and <a href="https://www.rsc.org/periodic-table/element/1/hydrogen">hydrogen</a> easily react with oxygen. Rocks that contain these elements are combustible. Without these elements inside them, rocks that are exposed to enough heat will melt instead of catching fire.</p>
<h2>How rocks form</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-are-igneous-rocks">Igneous rocks</a> are formed when magma underground or <a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-how-can-we-tell-when-a-volcano-is-going-to-erupt-147703">lava from a volcano</a> cools and crystallizes into solid material. These rocks are mostly made of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/silicate-mineral">silicate minerals</a> that crystallize at temperatures from 1,300 degrees Fahrenheit (700 degrees Celsius) up to <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/magma-role-rock-cycle/">as high as 2,400 F (1,300 C)</a>.</p>
<p>Igneous rocks contain few or no combustible elements. And it’s very hard to remelt them back into magma because they crystallize at such high temperatures – it would take the kind of <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-cant-we-throw-all-our-trash-into-a-volcano-and-burn-it-up-170919">high-tech incinerator that cities use to burn waste</a> to make that happen.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-are-sedimentary-rocks">Sedimentary rocks</a> have a very different formation story. They form from broken bits of rocks, minerals, sometimes plant or animal material, and also crystals left behind when water evaporates, like the <a href="https://www.compoundchem.com/2016/03/02/limescale/">limescale</a> that forms in teakettles and bathtubs. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523326/original/file-20230427-14-w7d3zk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Infographic showing materials washing into the ocean and becoming compressed at depth." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523326/original/file-20230427-14-w7d3zk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523326/original/file-20230427-14-w7d3zk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523326/original/file-20230427-14-w7d3zk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523326/original/file-20230427-14-w7d3zk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523326/original/file-20230427-14-w7d3zk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523326/original/file-20230427-14-w7d3zk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523326/original/file-20230427-14-w7d3zk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sedimentary rock forms when layers of material are compressed over time, either on land or under water.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/mGbBa2">Siyavula Education/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There is a lot of <a href="https://www.rsc.org/periodic-table/element/16/sulfur">sulfur</a>, <a href="https://www.rsc.org/periodic-table/element/6/carbon">carbon</a> and <a href="https://www.rsc.org/periodic-table/element/1/hydrogen">hydrogen</a> in living things. In fact, these are three of the <a href="https://www.livescience.com/32983-what-are-ingredients-life.html">six essential elements of life on Earth</a>. Bits of organic matter, particularly dead plants, also are combustible and allow the rocks to burn. </p>
<p>The last group of rocks is called <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-are-metamorphic-rocks">metamorphic</a>, because these rocks form when a lot of heat and pressure change existing rocks into new types without melting or burning them. “Metamorphosis” comes from ancient Greek and means “transformation.” For example, marble that you might see in kitchen counters or statues came from limestone that was transformed under intense heat and pressure deep underground. </p>
<h2>The rock that humans burn: Coal</h2>
<p>Metamorphic rocks that are formed from igneous rocks won’t contain the combustible elements – the ones that burn – but metamorphic rocks made from sedimentary rocks might. One familiar example is <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-are-types-coal">anthracite coal</a>, which is made almost entirely of carbon. It formed when dead plants fell into swamps long, long ago, were buried by sand or mud, and eventually were compressed over <a href="https://eartharchives.org/articles/the-evolution-of-plants-part-3-the-age-of-coal/index.html">hundreds of millions of years into coal</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523327/original/file-20230427-2850-2212o2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large chunk of anthracite coal." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523327/original/file-20230427-2850-2212o2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523327/original/file-20230427-2850-2212o2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523327/original/file-20230427-2850-2212o2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523327/original/file-20230427-2850-2212o2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523327/original/file-20230427-2850-2212o2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523327/original/file-20230427-2850-2212o2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523327/original/file-20230427-2850-2212o2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Anthracite is the hardest type of coal. It contains the most carbon and the fewest impurities of all coal types.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthracite#/media/File:Anthracite_chunk.JPG">Jakec/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are many coal seams around the world. Sometimes the coal even <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/fire-in-the-hole-77895126/">catches fire while it’s still in the ground</a>. The cause can be natural, such as a lightning strike, or human activities like mining.</p>
<p>In Centralia, Pennsylvania, a former mining town, a coal seam has been <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/fire-in-the-hole-77895126/">burning for over 50 years</a>. There are other active coal seam fires in places around the world including <a href="https://eos.org/articles/coal-seam-fires-burn-beneath-communities-in-zimbabwe">Zimbabwe in Africa</a> and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/02/indias-jharia-coal-field-has-been-burning-for-100-years.html">Jharia in India</a>.</p>
<p>If carbon is compressed with even more pressure than it takes to make coal, eventually <a href="https://theconversation.com/diamonds-are-forever-whether-made-in-a-lab-or-mined-from-the-earth-106665">you get diamonds</a> – the <a href="https://theconversation.com/have-scientists-really-found-something-harder-than-diamond-52391">hardest mineral found in nature</a>. In 1772, French chemist <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Antoine-Lavoisier">Antoine Lavoisier</a> proved that diamonds could combust when he <a href="https://www.wtamu.edu/%7Ecbaird/sq/2014/03/27/can-you-light-diamond-on-fire/">burned one with a magnifying glass</a>. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/1QbHRLpYc-0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Scientists burn a diamond – the hardest mineral found in nature.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With enough patience, you could <a href="https://www.wtamu.edu/%7Ecbaird/sq/2014/03/27/can-you-light-diamond-on-fire/">burn a diamond in a candle flame</a>. But since diamonds are quite expensive, it’s better to stick to <a href="https://gosciencegirls.com/magnifying-glass-fire/">burning other things made of carbon</a>, like <a href="https://gosciencekids.com/magnifying-glass-fire/">leaves under a magnifying glass</a>, or sticks and marshmallows in a campfire, instead. </p>
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<p><em>Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to <a href="mailto:curiouskidsus@theconversation.com">CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com</a>. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.</em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natalie Bursztyn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Some rocks will burn, and others will melt, depending on how they were formed and what minerals they contain.Natalie Bursztyn, Lecturer in Geosciences, University of MontanaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2055612023-05-15T08:16:23Z2023-05-15T08:16:23ZYes, Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek approved a coal mine. But save the angst for decisions that matter more<p>The outcry was loud and swift last week after Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/11/albanese-government-approves-first-new-coal-mine-since-taking-power">approved</a> a new coal mine in central Queensland. It’s the first coal mine Labor has approved since coming to power a year ago.</p>
<p>The project, the <a href="https://www.bowencokingcoal.com.au/isaac-river">Isaac River mine</a>, will extract metallurgical coal to be burned for steel-making. Environmental groups <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/11/albanese-government-approves-first-new-coal-mine-since-taking-power">decried</a> the potential damage the mine would cause to wildlife, water quality and the climate.</p>
<p>Any new coal mine is <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidrvetter/2021/05/18/end-new-fossil-fuel-development-iea-demands-in-groundbreaking-net-zero-plan/?sh=3343263c4678">inconsistent</a> with the global goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. But the Isaac River mine is probably the least bad of those recently under consideration. </p>
<p>The mine would produce only metallurgical coal, which is still needed by the steel industry, and would operate for just five years. Importantly, we shouldn’t let controversy over the approval of a small, short-lived mine distract from more consequential recent decisions on coal – and those still looming.</p>
<h2>A lesson in spin-doctoring</h2>
<p>Plibersek’s handling of recent coal mine announcements is a masterclass in egregious political spin-doctoring.</p>
<p>On May 5, Plibersek triumphantly announced she had rejected two Queensland coalmine proposals - the MacMines China Stone mine and the Stanmore Resources Range project – because the proponents failed to provide information about potential damage to the environment.</p>
<p>The decision was widely <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/05/tanya-plibersek-rejects-two-queensland-coalmines-over-failure-to-provide-detail-on-environmental-impact">welcomed</a>. But in reality, scuppering the mines was an easy and relatively uncontroversial decision for Plibersek. Both proposals had been moribund for a long time. Indeed, MacMines <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-23/macmines-abandons-mining-lease-applications/11138310">abandoned</a> its proposal in 2019 and the phone number for its Darwin office is no longer even connected.</p>
<p>Plibersek rejected the mines not because of the damage they would cause to nature, but because the proponents had for years failed to provide basic information to the department.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1654345432284413952"}"></div></p>
<p>Some observers <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/coal-mine-tracker/update/china-stone-and-range-mines-lapsed-what-does-this-mean/">suspected</a> the announcement was meant to soften us up for bad news. </p>
<p>That news came six days later, when details of the Isaac River mine approval were quietly uploaded to the federal environment department’s website. The coal mine, east of Moranbah, will reportedly produce about 500,000 tonnes of metallurgical coal each year for five years. </p>
<p>The approval was made public right before Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s budget reply speech. This follows a well-worn strategy of governments burying bad news by releasing it concurrently with bigger news events.</p>
<p>A spokesperson for Plibersek defended the approval, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/11/albanese-government-approves-first-new-coal-mine-since-taking-power">saying</a> the federal government “has to make decisions in accordance with the facts and the national environment law – that’s what happens on every project, and that’s what’s happened here”.</p>
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<h2>Thermal vs coking coal</h2>
<p>In weighing up the merits of Plibersek’s decision on the Isaac River mine, we must make a distinction between thermal coal, used in electricity generation, and metallurgical or “coking” coal, used in steel-making. </p>
<p>Metallurgical coal accounts for <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2019/sep/the-changing-global-market-for-australian-coal.html">about half</a> of Australia’s coal exports by tonnage, but the great majority by value.</p>
<p>The world is rapidly moving away from burning coal to generate electricity. Much of Europe will be <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-environment/news/europe-halfway-towards-closing-all-coal-power-plants-by-2030/">coal-free by 2030</a>. The United States and other developed countries are following suit.</p>
<p>The much-publicised “return of coal” resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine never amounted to much and is already <a href="https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/european-electricity-review-2023/">over</a>. </p>
<p>By continuing to export thermal coal, Australia is delaying the inevitable transition for the sake of short-term profits.</p>
<p>So what’s the picture for metallurgical coal? Low-emissions alternatives for steel-making are <a href="https://www.hybritdevelopment.se/en/a-fossil-free-future/">available</a>, but it will be some time before they’re deployed at scale. So demand for metallurgical coal is <a href="https://www.australianmining.com.au/anglo-american-talks-up-met-coal-future/">expected to continue</a> for years, or even decades. </p>
<p>Even bodies such as the International Energy Agency, which have called for an <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidrvetter/2021/05/18/end-new-fossil-fuel-development-iea-demands-in-groundbreaking-net-zero-plan/?sh=3343263c4678">end</a> to all new fossil fuel investment, could scarcely raise strong objections to a small-scale metallurgical coal mine set to close in five years. </p>
<h2>Let’s not get distracted</h2>
<p>In these circumstances, Plibersek played the media well by making the Isaac River mine the featured dish in a menu of bad news.</p>
<p>That approval was not the only decision made by Plibersek last week, or the most important one. She also allowed three other mine projects – two in New South Wales and one in Queensland – to proceed to the next stage of environmental assessment. </p>
<p>These projects had been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/04/tanya-plibersek-to-reassess-18-proposed-oil-and-gas-projects-to-consider-their-climate-change-impact">sent back to Plibersek</a> for further consideration after an environment group requested the effects of climate change be considered. The projects are still subject to further steps in the approvals process. But Plibersek’s decision to let them proceed provides a major boost.</p>
<p>The projects include an expansion of the Mount Pleasant mine in NSW. It would <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/coal-mine-tracker/mine/mount-pleasant-coal-mine/">produce about</a> 12 million tonnes of thermal coal a year – more than the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/adani-mine-ramps-up-production-amid-surging-coal-energy-prices-20220825-p5bcs9.html">Adani Carmichael mine</a>. It’s expected to operate until 2050, by which time many countries have <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-59159018">pledged</a> to quit coal-fired power completely.</p>
<p>Plibersek now faces a huge political test when it comes time to decide on those, and many more coal projects in the planning pipeline. On current indications, climate impacts will be disregarded completely.</p>
<p>In February, Plibersek <a href="https://theconversation.com/tanya-plibersek-killed-off-clive-palmers-coal-mine-its-an-australian-first-but-it-may-never-happen-again-199512">rejected</a> mining magnate Clive Palmer’s proposed Central Queensland coal project, on the grounds it would damage rivers and the Great Barrier Reef. </p>
<p>So under this government, mines may be rejected because they would damage the local environment or for failing to get their paperwork right – but not because they enable emissions that will help destroy the global environment.</p>
<p>This is a clear weakness in national environment law. The Albanese government could have fixed it, by introducing a so-called “<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-has-introduced-its-controversial-climate-bill-to-parliament-heres-how-to-give-it-real-teeth-187762">climate trigger</a>”. This would have enabled it to knock back a development proposal on the grounds of its climate impact. But it has refused to do so.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-has-introduced-its-controversial-climate-bill-to-parliament-heres-how-to-give-it-real-teeth-187762">Labor has introduced its controversial climate bill to parliament. Here's how to give it real teeth</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="coal plant stacks emit steam" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476198/original/file-20220727-18-6rllmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476198/original/file-20220727-18-6rllmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476198/original/file-20220727-18-6rllmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476198/original/file-20220727-18-6rllmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476198/original/file-20220727-18-6rllmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476198/original/file-20220727-18-6rllmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476198/original/file-20220727-18-6rllmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A ‘climate trigger’ would have meant high-emitting projects could be rejected.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Smith/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>Big coal tests remain</h2>
<p>Optimists can console themselves with the idea that things would have been worse if the Morrison government was still in power. But none of the approval decisions announced by Labor so far differ from those we might have expected under the Coalition. </p>
<p>And there is one intriguing case where things look like going the other way. In the lead-up to last year’s federal election, then prime minister Scott Morrison <a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrisons-veto-of-a-gas-drilling-plan-off-sydney-was-strange-but-it-should-not-be-overturned-188813">blocked</a> a gas-drilling proposal off the New South Wales coast, using ministerial powers he secretly conferred upon himself. </p>
<p>The Albanese government has taken <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/state-labor-backs-albanese-on-pep11-despite-opposition-to-project-20230204-p5chw6.html">legal action</a> to nullify that decision.</p>
<p>Many more federal <a href="https://cqtoday.com.au/news/2022/11/13/proposed-mines-reconsidered/">decisions</a> on coal mining projects are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/29/albanese-government-faces-decisions-on-coalmines-that-could-add-16m-tonnes-of-co2-emissions-annually">yet to come</a>. If all or most are approved, Labor’s efforts to reduce domestic emissions will count for little or nothing – a fact no amount of spin-doctoring can conceal.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tanya-plibersek-killed-off-clive-palmers-coal-mine-its-an-australian-first-but-it-may-never-happen-again-199512">Tanya Plibersek killed off Clive Palmer's coal mine. It's an Australian first – but it may never happen again</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205561/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority. Some of his work has been published by The Australia Institute, mentioned in this article.</span></em></p>We shouldn’t let controversy over the approval of one small, short-lived mine distract from more consequential decisions looming on coal.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.