tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/csiro-2705/articles
CSIRO – The Conversation
2024-03-27T23:55:16Z
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/226729
2024-03-27T23:55:16Z
2024-03-27T23:55:16Z
A cosmic ‘speed camera’ just revealed the staggering speed of neutron star jets in a world first
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584904/original/file-20240327-26-ntaiw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1283%2C180%2C5431%2C3798&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nuclear explosions on a neutron star feed its jets.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Danielle Futselaar and Nathalie Degenaar, Anton Pannekoek Institute, University of Amsterdam</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>How fast can a neutron star drive powerful jets into space? The answer, it turns out, is about one-third the speed of light, as our team has just revealed in a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07133-5">new study</a> published in Nature.</p>
<p>Energetic cosmic beams known as <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/radio-jet">jets</a> are seen throughout our universe. They are launched when material – mainly dust and gas – falls in towards any dense central object, such as a neutron star (an extremely dense remnant of a once-massive star) or a <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/universe/black-holes/">black hole</a>. </p>
<p>The jets carry away some of the gravitational energy released by the infalling gas, recycling it back into the surroundings on far larger scales.</p>
<p>The most powerful jets in the universe come from the biggest black holes at the centres of galaxies. The energy output of these jets can affect the evolution of an entire galaxy, or even a galaxy cluster. This makes jets a critical, yet intriguing, component of our universe.</p>
<p>Although jets are common, we still don’t fully understand how they are launched. Measuring the jets from a neutron star has now given us valuable information.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-brightest-object-in-the-universe-is-a-black-hole-that-eats-a-star-a-day-222612">The brightest object in the universe is a black hole that eats a star a day</a>
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<h2>Jets from stellar corpses</h2>
<p>Jets from black holes tend to be bright, and have been well studied. However, the jets from neutron stars are typically much fainter, and much less is known about them.</p>
<p>This presents a problem, since we can learn a lot by comparing the jets launched by different celestial objects. <a href="https://imagine.gsfc.nasa.gov/science/objects/neutron_stars1.html">Neutron stars</a> are extremely dense stellar corpses – cosmic cinders the size of a city, yet containing the mass of a star. We can think of them as enormous atomic nuclei, each about 20 kilometres across.</p>
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<p>In contrast to black holes, neutron stars have both a solid surface and a magnetic field, and gas falling onto them releases less gravitational energy. All of these properties will have an effect on how their jets are launched, making studies of neutron star jets particularly valuable.</p>
<p>One key clue to how jets are launched comes from their speeds. If we can determine how jet speeds vary with the mass or spin of the neutron star, that would provide a powerful test of theoretical predictions. But it is extremely challenging to measure jet speeds accurately enough for such a test.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unexpected-find-from-a-neutron-star-forces-a-rethink-on-radio-jets-103843">Unexpected find from a neutron star forces a rethink on radio jets</a>
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<h2>A cosmic speed camera</h2>
<p>When we measure speeds on Earth, we time an object between two points. This could be a 100-metre sprinter running down the track, or a point-to-point speed camera tracking a car.</p>
<p>Our team, led by Thomas Russell from the <a href="http://www.inaf.it/en">Italian National Institute of Astrophysics</a> in Palermo, conducted a new experiment to do this for neutron star jets.</p>
<p>What has made this measurement so difficult in the past is that jets are steady flows. This means there is no single starting point for our timer. But we were able to identify a short-lived signal at X-ray wavelengths that we could use as our “starting gun”.</p>
<p>Being so dense, neutron stars can “steal” matter from a nearby orbiting companion star. While some of that gas is launched outwards as jets, most of it ends up falling onto the neutron star. As the material piles up, it gets hotter and denser.</p>
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<p>When enough material has built up, it triggers a thermonuclear explosion. A runaway nuclear fusion reaction occurs and rapidly spreads to engulf the entire star. The fusion lasts for a few seconds to minutes, causing a short-lived <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/universe/nasas-nicer-catches-record-setting-x-ray-burst/">burst of X-rays</a>.</p>
<h2>One step closer to solving a mystery</h2>
<p>We thought this thermonuclear explosion would disrupt the neutron star’s jets. So, we used CSIRO’s <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/about/facilities-collections/atnf/australia-telescope-compact-array">Australia Telescope Compact Array</a> to stare at the jets for three days at radio wavelengths to try and catch the disruption. At the same time, we used the European Space Agency’s <a href="https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Space_Science/Integral_overview">Integral</a> telescope to look at the X-rays from the system.</p>
<p>To our surprise, we found the jets got brighter after every pulse of X-rays. Instead of disrupting the jets, the thermonuclear explosions seemed to power them up. And this pattern was repeated ten times in one neutron star system, and then again in a second system.</p>
<p>We can explain this surprising result if the X-ray pulse causes gas swirling around the neutron star to fall inwards more quickly. This, in turn, provides more energy and material to divert into the jets.</p>
<p>Most importantly, however, we can use the X-ray burst to indicate the launch time of the jets. We timed how long they took to move outwards to where they became visible at two different radio wavelengths. These start and finish points provided us with our cosmic speed camera.</p>
<p>Interestingly, the jet speed we measured was close to the “escape speed” from a neutron star. On Earth, this escape speed is <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/escape-velocity">11.2 kilometres per second</a> – what rockets need to achieve to break free of Earth’s gravity. For a neutron star, that value is around half the speed of light.</p>
<p>Our work has introduced a new technique for measuring neutron star jet speeds. Our next steps will be to see how the jet speed changes for neutron stars with different masses and rotation rates. That will allow us to directly test theoretical models, taking us one step closer to figuring out how such powerful cosmic jets are launched.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226729/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Miller-Jones receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Western Australian State Government.</span></em></p>
Powerful jets are launched from the most massive objects in our universe, but we don’t fully understand how. This measurement gets us a step closer to solving the mystery.
James Miller-Jones, Professor, Curtin University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/226319
2024-03-22T04:41:46Z
2024-03-22T04:41:46Z
Grey-headed flying-fox population is stable – 10 years of monitoring reveals this threatened species is doing well
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583611/original/file-20240322-18-n9e3rx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=41%2C20%2C4559%2C3428&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adam McKeown, CSIRO</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Flying foxes, or fruit bats, are familiar to many Australians. So it may come as a surprise to learn two of the four mainland species, both grey-headed and spectacled flying foxes, are threatened with extinction.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0298530">our decade-long survey</a> of one of these species – the grey-headed flying fox – brings some encouraging news. Our data show the population has been relatively stable since 2012, when surveys first began under the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/environment/biodiversity/threatened/species/flying-fox-monitoring">National Flying-fox Monitoring Program</a>.</p>
<p>Incredibly, the species emerged from the <a href="https://recovery.preventionweb.net/collections/recovery-collection-australia-black-summer-bushfires-2019-2020">Black Summer of 2019–20</a> relatively unscathed. Flying foxes also suffer in heatwaves and many die, but overall numbers have remained stable. </p>
<p>While this study is good news for the species, we must not become complacent. Heatwaves are expected to become more frequent and intense as the climate changes. Only further monitoring can determine its effects. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/flying-foxes-pollinate-forests-and-spread-seeds-heres-how-we-can-make-peace-with-our-noisy-neighbours-215811">Flying foxes pollinate forests and spread seeds. Here's how we can make peace with our noisy neighbours</a>
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<h2>Hanging out with flying foxes</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/cgi-bin/sprat/public/publicspecies.pl?taxon_id=186">grey-headed flying fox</a> (<em>Pteropus poliocephalus</em>) is common in most cities and towns across south-eastern Australia. More recently, colonies have become <a href="https://www.environment.sa.gov.au/goodliving/posts/2016/03/flying-foxes">established in South Australia</a>.</p>
<p>The species can be found anywhere from Maryborough, on Queensland’s Fraser Coast, to Adelaide, with some outlying populations as far north as Ingham in north Queensland. There’s also a breakaway group in Port Augusta, 300km north of Adelaide.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583630/original/file-20240322-16-j46w0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Coloured map of grey-headed flying fox counts across eastern Australia and across to South Australia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583630/original/file-20240322-16-j46w0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583630/original/file-20240322-16-j46w0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=789&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583630/original/file-20240322-16-j46w0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=789&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583630/original/file-20240322-16-j46w0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=789&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583630/original/file-20240322-16-j46w0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=991&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583630/original/file-20240322-16-j46w0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=991&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583630/original/file-20240322-16-j46w0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=991&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Map of grey-headed flying fox counts. Minor roosts had fewer than 100 in total over the ten-year period while major roosts had more than 100,000.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Eric Vanderduys</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>The “vulnerable” listing means the species is at risk of extinction. But it’s not as dire as if it were “endangered”. </p>
<p>The original <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/environment/biodiversity/threatened/conservation-advices/pteropus-poliocephalus">vulnerable assessment</a>, endorsed in 2001, was based on a population decline of about 30% over ten years and the potential for ongoing land clearing in the grey-headed flying fox’s core range.</p>
<p>But this is the flying fox you’re most likely to see and hear in south-east Australia, from Sydney to Adelaide. </p>
<p>During the day, flying foxes like to hang out together. They rest and socialise in large roosts, sometimes numbering more than 100,000 animals. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583352/original/file-20240321-28-joql1y.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large group of grey-headed flying foxes roosting in a tree" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583352/original/file-20240321-28-joql1y.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583352/original/file-20240321-28-joql1y.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583352/original/file-20240321-28-joql1y.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583352/original/file-20240321-28-joql1y.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583352/original/file-20240321-28-joql1y.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583352/original/file-20240321-28-joql1y.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583352/original/file-20240321-28-joql1y.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">More than 150,000 grey-headed flying foxes roosted in Gympie, Queensland, after much of their habitat burned during the Black Summer of 2019-20.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Eric Vanderduys, CSIRO</span></span>
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<p>As the sun sets, they take to the sky, departing in large streams to forage during the night in the surrounding landscape. They can travel long distances to find food, sometimes venturing more than 40km from home, and flying more than 300km in a single night. </p>
<p>Their food of choice is nectar from a wide variety of eucalypt, bloodwood and melaleuca species. In return, they play an important pollination role, as if they were nocturnal bees with a one-metre wingspan. </p>
<p>They also feed extensively on native figs. In urban areas, they feast on the nectar and fruit of introduced species found in <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0259395">gardens and street trees</a>. </p>
<p>Individuals regularly change roosts. They move throughout the <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12915-020-00829-w">species’ range</a>, following food resources. </p>
<p>That means the number of bats in roosts is constantly changing, depending on the availability of the surrounding resources, which makes accurate counting particularly challenging.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583617/original/file-20240322-24-tqaufc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A grey-headed flying-fox hanging from a tree, wrapped in its wings, with its eyes wide open" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583617/original/file-20240322-24-tqaufc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583617/original/file-20240322-24-tqaufc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583617/original/file-20240322-24-tqaufc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583617/original/file-20240322-24-tqaufc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583617/original/file-20240322-24-tqaufc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1006&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583617/original/file-20240322-24-tqaufc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1006&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583617/original/file-20240322-24-tqaufc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1006&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Grey-headed flying foxes sleep and socialise during the day but are often well aware of approaching humans.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adam McKeown, CSIRO</span></span>
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<h2>Monitoring a threatened species</h2>
<p>Australia’s national science agency, CSIRO, co-ordinated the National Flying-fox Monitoring Program in partnership with federal and state environmental agencies from 2012 to 2022. </p>
<p>The intention was to monitor the populations of the two nationally listed flying fox species on the mainland. It was specifically designed to understand their population trends. Here we focus on the grey-headed flying foxes. </p>
<p>The program involved quarterly visits by federal, state and local government staff and volunteers to as many flying fox roosts as possible. Over the entire program almost 12,000 counts were conducted at 912 potential roosts. Grey-headed flying foxes were found at 469 of those roosts.</p>
<p>This program would not have been possible without hundreds of hours of work around the clock by staff and volunteers, often in challenging conditions. Their work highlights the importance of long-term monitoring programs. </p>
<p>From 2012 to 2022 we counted an average of 580,000 grey-headed flying foxes in each survey. But total numbers ranged between 330,000 and 990,000, with strong seasonal variation. This variation relates to their reproductive cycle and the availability of food within their range. </p>
<p>Flying foxes pup late in the year. When those pups become independent, they can be counted. This results in a sudden increase in the numbers, typically around February. So while our data show peaks and troughs throughout each year, overall the population remained stable.</p>
<p>We developed a model to allow for this seasonality and examine overall population trends. The model strongly suggests the population hovered around 600,000 adults for the ten years of the survey. We found a 70% chance of a slightly increasing population, versus a 30% chance the population has declined slightly.</p>
<p>The population appeared to be stable despite exceptional events such as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-black-summer-of-fire-was-not-normal-and-we-can-prove-it-172506">2019–20 megafires</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/killer-climate-tens-of-thousands-of-flying-foxes-dead-in-a-day-23227">severe heatwaves known to have killed thousands of flying foxes</a>.</p>
<p>The flying foxes seem resilient to these threats for two main reasons. </p>
<p>First, they are nomadic and well adapted to travelling long distances. This allows them to evade threats such as fires and droughts. </p>
<p>Second, grey-headed flying-foxes are likely to benefit from a “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259395">human-modified landscape</a>”. In other words, they may well be urban “winners”, as the urban areas we’ve created provide diverse foraging opportunities. </p>
<p>Grey-headed flying foxes <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/webgis-framework/apps/ffc-wide/ffc-wide.jsf">continually occupied</a> all major cities within their range throughout our monitoring program. </p>
<p>These urban environments offer a smorgasbord of flowering and fruiting species, especially palms and figs. Many of these species are exotics, with flowering and fruiting patterns that flying foxes can readily exploit. </p>
<p>We found continuous occupation of individual roosts was unusual. The few that were continuously occupied were all in urban areas, supporting the view that <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/ZO/pdf/ZO20086">urban areas are increasingly important</a> for this species.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583391/original/file-20240321-18-96pnpi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Closeup of a young grey-headed flying fox looking at the camera, with a dark green leafy background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583391/original/file-20240321-18-96pnpi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583391/original/file-20240321-18-96pnpi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583391/original/file-20240321-18-96pnpi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583391/original/file-20240321-18-96pnpi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583391/original/file-20240321-18-96pnpi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583391/original/file-20240321-18-96pnpi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583391/original/file-20240321-18-96pnpi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">This young grey-headed flying fox is big enough to count.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Eric Vanderduys, CSIRO</span></span>
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<h2>Good news, but we need to be cautious</h2>
<p>After ten years of monitoring we can safely say the grey-headed flying fox is doing ok, for the time being. </p>
<p>But threats to its survival remain. Climate change is expected to cause more <a href="https://www.acs.gov.au/pages/heatwaves">heatwaves</a>, bushfires and droughts within their range. This could turn their fate around. </p>
<p>It’s also worth noting that while our monitoring continued for two years after the 2019–20 bushfires, the longer-term impacts are still unknown. </p>
<p>Given this uncertainty, continuing monitoring using similar methods and incorporating updated technology would increase certainty about the population trajectory. Unfortunately, monitoring has paused since 2022, pending further funding discussions. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-stop-new-viruses-jumping-across-to-humans-we-must-protect-and-restore-bat-habitat-heres-why-194634">To stop new viruses jumping across to humans, we must protect and restore bat habitat. Here's why</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226319/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eric Vanderduys works for CSIRO. He receives funding from a range of federal and state government agencies.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam McKeown receives funding from a variety of federal and state government agencies.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris R. Pavey works for CSIRO. He receives funding from a variety of federal and state government agencies. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Martin works for Ecosure ecological consultancy. He receives funding from a variety of federal and state government agencies.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Caley works for the CSIRO. He receives funding from a range of federal and state government agencies.</span></em></p>
Ten years of data from Australia’s comprehensive national flying-fox monitoring program reveals the grey-headed flying fox (fruit bat) population is stable. It’s good news for this threatened species.
Eric Vanderduys, Research Scientist, Field Ecology, CSIRO
Adam McKeown, Experimental Scientist in Ecology, CSIRO
Chris R. Pavey, Principal Scientist in Ecology, CSIRO
John Martin, Adjunct associate and ecological research scientist, University of Sydney
Peter Caley, Senior Research Scientist in quantitative ecology, CSIRO
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/214712
2024-01-28T19:05:07Z
2024-01-28T19:05:07Z
Do we want a wind farm outside our window? What Australians think about the net zero transition
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557393/original/file-20231103-19-qqubic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1735%2C1796&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/man-in-white-dress-shirt-and-blue-denim-jeans-sitting-on-white-and-black-solar-panel-wmaP3Tl80ww">Bill Mead, Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A paradox lies at the heart of Australian public opinion about climate change. While there is clear general support for substantial government action to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, there is also strong concern about the local impacts of new renewable energy infrastructure. </p>
<p>The rise of protest groups in regional Australia objecting to the installation of wind farms and transmission lines, in particular, presents a serious challenge to the Albanese government in communicating the importance of the net zero transition to the public.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>In principle it seems that Australians strongly support this transition. In a poll for the Australia Institute’s <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Climate-of-the-Nation-2023-Web.pdf">Climate of the Nation report</a> last year, two in three respondents went as far as to say our country should be a world leader in climate action.</p>
<p>Similarly, a 2020 <a href="https://bridges.monash.edu/articles/report/Australia_s_Clean_Technology_Future_Audience_Perceptions_and_Message_Framing/23896950">Monash University study</a> found eight out of ten Australians think the shift to renewable energy is inevitable, and two-thirds think we should be exporting renewable energy.</p>
<p>Studies also show <a href="https://doi.org/10.25919/fqbk-0y13">strong support</a> for renewable energy production through solar farms, with 90% of Australians prepared to live within ten kilometres of one, according to a 2021 CSIRO study. And a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/31/guardian-essential-poll-results-labor-net-zero-climate-change-renewables#:%7E:text=The%20poll%20found%2038%25%20of,height%20of%20black%20summer%20bushfires.">Guardian Essential poll</a> from October last year found about 70% of respondents supported solar farms and 60% supported both offshore and onshore wind farms.</p>
<h2>Local opposition to the net zero transition</h2>
<p>But at the same time the installation of these same wind farms has attracted strong local protests, especially in NSW and Victoria. There has also been <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-clean-energy-grid-means-10-000km-of-new-transmission-lines-they-can-only-be-built-with-community-backing-187438">significant community pushback</a> to the Australian Energy Market Operator’s plan to install 10,000 kilometres of overground transmission lines, which are key to carrying renewable energy to the electricity grid. Only 35% of respondents in the Guardian Essential poll supported them. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-homes-can-be-made-climate-ready-reducing-bills-and-emissions-a-new-report-shows-how-219113">Australian homes can be made climate-ready, reducing bills and emissions – a new report shows how</a>
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</em>
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<p>In an equally serious challenge for the net zero transition, 70% of respondents felt renewable energy should not be developed “at the expense of local communities”.</p>
<p>In a bid to address these concerns, the Australian Energy Market Commission has drafted <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/news-centre/media-releases/final-community-engagement-rules-major-transmission-projects">new community engagement rules</a> to ensure communities are involved early in the process of designing the routes of transmission lines.</p>
<p>The changes seek to ensure all stakeholders get information about a project in a clear and timely fashion (including advice on how they can best play a role) and have opportunities to be regularly involved throughout the planning of projects.</p>
<h2>A more nuanced look at public opinion</h2>
<p>There might be an even bigger issue that helps to explain the tension between apparent general support for acting to arrest global warming and local opposition to specific renewable energy projects. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2352154621000929?via%3Dihub">Segmentation studies</a>, first undertaken in 2008 by researchers at Yale and George Mason Universities in the United States, and replicated in many countries, including Australia, are valuable for explaining this apparent paradox.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-laggard-to-leader-why-australia-must-phase-out-fossil-fuel-exports-starting-now-219912">From laggard to leader? Why Australia must phase out fossil fuel exports, starting now</a>
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<p>These studies break down views on climate change into segments of the population with different levels of concern. The <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2352154621000929?via%3Dihub">original research</a> divided American popular opinion into six groups: Alarmed, Concerned, Cautious, Disengaged, Doubtful and Dismissive. </p>
<p>The spectrum ranges from those most worried about climate change and who tend to take the most action, both in their personal lives and politically, to those who either don’t accept climate change is happening, or feel it isn’t something we need to address.</p>
<p>A range of segmentation studies conducted in <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17524032.2022.2048407">2011, 2016, 2020</a> <a href="https://sunriseproject.org/compass/">and 2022</a> by researchers from both Australia and the US show Australians have become more worried over time. The Alarmed segment more than doubled between 2011 and 2022.</p>
<p>However, the studies show different segments of the population have different views of when we need to act to arrest climate change. </p>
<p>For example, the <a href="https://sunriseproject.org/compass/">2022 Climate Compass report</a> highlights that people in the Concerned segment — the largest group, comprising one in four Australians — feel climate change is a serious problem but that its impacts will be most felt by future generations. These Australians see cost of living as a much more urgent problem. </p>
<p>While the polling data do not show whether many protesters against renewable energy projects belong to the Concerned segment of the population, it remains essential to explore communication strategies that might move the large numbers of Australians who identify as Concerned into the Alarmed camp. One way to do this might be on the nightly TV news. </p>
<h2>Looking more closely at the weather</h2>
<p>From flooding to heat, many Australian extreme weather records <a href="https://climateextremes.org.au/stateof2022/">have been broken</a> in recent years. Some people feel that is part and parcel of living in Australia, and remain unaware of the connection between climate change and the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather. And it can be difficult to translate complex climate phenomena into terms the public can easily understand.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-beat-rollout-rage-the-environment-versus-climate-battle-dividing-regional-australia-213863">How to beat 'rollout rage': the environment-versus-climate battle dividing regional Australia</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>Yet while the research is not conclusive, there is <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-weather-events-are-exactly-the-time-to-talk-about-climate-change-heres-why-210412#:%7E:text=But%20research%20offers%20contrasting%20results,these%20effects%20are%20only%20temporary.">good evidence</a> that floods, fires and heat waves increase popular concern about global warming by exposing the connection between extreme weather and climate change. <a href="https://www.monash.edu/mcccrh/publications/reports/a-survey-of-australian-tv-audiences-views-on-climate-change">Research from our centre</a> argues that weather presenters can play a greater role in making this connection clearer. Australians see weather presenters, along with climate scientists, farmers and fire fighters, as the most trusted sources of information about climate change. </p>
<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>Whether or not we fully understand the ways climate change is impacting our society, most Australians realise it’s only going to get worse unless we do something about it. We’ve now moved into the implementation phase of the net zero transition, but many doubt that we’ll achieve it in time. The Guardian Essential poll <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/31/guardian-essential-poll-results-labor-net-zero-climate-change-renewables#:%7E:text=The%20poll%20found%2038%25%20of,height%20of%20black%20summer%20bushfires.">showed just 31% of respondents</a> felt it was “very” or “quite” likely Australia would achieve its net zero target.</p>
<p>Therefore, it is crucial that we ramp up action towards transforming our energy sector, but it’s equally important that communities be part of deciding how this is achieved. In doing so, we can improve public support, and bring net zero within reach. </p>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214712/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lucy Richardson has received funding from the Lord Mayor's Charitable Foundation for research on community attitudes to renewable energy. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ella Healy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Australians want government to act on climate change, but not necessarily now, or in their neighbourhood. How can governments resolve this dilemma?
Lucy Richardson, Post Doctoral Research Fellow, Monash Climate Change Communication Research Hub, Monash University
Ella Healy, Operations Manager, Monash University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/219205
2023-12-06T00:53:30Z
2023-12-06T00:53:30Z
Astronomers finally caught radio waves from 40 large galaxies in the nearby universe
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563537/original/file-20231205-21-lmh6mq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C0%2C3196%2C2153&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder in the Western Australian desert.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.atnf.csiro.au/projects/askap/gallery.html">CSIRO</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Supermassive black holes reside in some of the biggest galaxies in the universe. They tend to be billions of times more massive that our Sun, and not even light itself can escape a black hole once it gets too close.</p>
<p>But it’s not all darkness. Supermassive black holes power some of the most luminous celestial objects in the universe – active galactic nuclei, which shine across the spectrum of light, including radio waves. </p>
<p>The active galactic nucleus in nearby galaxy Messier 87 is a prodigious emitter of radio waves, 27 orders of magnitude more powerful than the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eglin_AFB_Site_C-6">most powerful radio transmitters on Earth</a>.</p>
<p>But not all galaxies blast radio waves like Messier 87. Some very massive nearby galaxies have gone undetected in the radio spectrum despite containing supermassive black holes. Are they switched on in the radio at all, or are they – and therefore their black holes – totally silent?</p>
<p>To find out, we searched for radio waves from the most massive galaxies in the nearby universe, with our results now accepted for publication <a href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2023arXiv231115456B/abstract">in the Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563524/original/file-20231205-15-zu7j1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A red and orange donut shape on a black background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563524/original/file-20231205-15-zu7j1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563524/original/file-20231205-15-zu7j1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563524/original/file-20231205-15-zu7j1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563524/original/file-20231205-15-zu7j1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563524/original/file-20231205-15-zu7j1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=668&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563524/original/file-20231205-15-zu7j1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=668&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563524/original/file-20231205-15-zu7j1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=668&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The black hole in Messier 87 is the engine for a powerful radio source.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/black-hole-image-makes-history">Event Horizon Telescope Collaboration</a></span>
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<h2>A big engine</h2>
<p>It may seem odd that black holes can power anything. After all, no matter – not even light – can escape a black hole. But a lot can happen before the point of no return, known as the event horizon.</p>
<p>As matter falls towards the black hole, it picks up tremendous speed. Particles can end up travelling close to the speed of light, and when particles smash at that speed, they can release a staggering amount of energy. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-how-do-black-holes-pull-in-light-208848">Curious Kids: how do black holes pull in light?</a>
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</em>
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<p>Several percent of the mass that falls towards a black
hole – “feeds” it – can get <a href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ApJ...836L...1T/abstract">released as light</a>. Feed a black hole, and it can be a big engine that blasts out radio waves. </p>
<p>So, supermassive black holes are in all the biggest galaxies, but are they always being fed? That question motivated our study. To listen for radio waves from these enormous objects, we used the ASKAP radio telescope in Western Australia, owned and operated by CSIRO – Australia’s national science agency.</p>
<h2>Tuning in on the radio</h2>
<p>Way back in the 1940s, astronomers started detecting radio waves from some massive galaxies using the first radio telescopes. This includes galaxies familiar to amateur astronomers, including Messier 87 in the Virgo constellation and NGC 5128 in Centaurus. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563531/original/file-20231205-29-9eemqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Black and white image of silhouettes of two people standing on a clifftop next to an antenna" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563531/original/file-20231205-29-9eemqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563531/original/file-20231205-29-9eemqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563531/original/file-20231205-29-9eemqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563531/original/file-20231205-29-9eemqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563531/original/file-20231205-29-9eemqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563531/original/file-20231205-29-9eemqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563531/original/file-20231205-29-9eemqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Very powerful celestial sources of radio waves were detected back in the 1940s, thanks to radio telescopes like this one at Dover Heights, Sydney.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO Radio Astronomy Image Archive</span></span>
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<p>As technology advanced, more very massive galaxies were detected in radio waves. In the early 2000s, astronomers found that about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2966.2007.11937.x">a third of very massive galaxies</a> in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey were detectable in the radio data from the Very Large Array, located in New Mexico. </p>
<p>A decade ago, <a href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011ApJ...731L..41B/abstract">our team also used data</a> from the Very Large Array to search for radio emissions from the most massive nearby galaxies. Some were easily detected while others were indistinguishable from noise. </p>
<p>However, there was a strong hint. While the radio signals from the most massive galaxies were sometimes not distinguishable from noise individually, we always found a positive signal. </p>
<p>If some galaxies were not emitting radio waves, we would expect random noise to produce a mix of positive and negative signals. Getting a positive signal every time suggested all massive galaxies are radio sources. But digging into the noise left us unsure, until now.</p>
<h2>New telescopes and a new view</h2>
<p>There have been major advances in radio telescopes during the past decade, both in radio receivers and computing power. New radio telescopes include the ASKAP radio telescope and the Murchison Widefield Array, both located at Inyarrimanha Ilgari Bundara, CSIRO’s Murchison Radio-astronomy Observatory on Wajarri Yamaji country in Western Australia. There is also the <a href="https://www.astron.nl/telescopes/lofar/">Low Frequency Array</a> (Lofar) in Europe.</p>
<p>These telescopes can survey the sky with greater sensitivity and speed than the previous generation of radio telescopes. For example, <a href="https://research.csiro.au/racs/home/survey/">the Rapid ASKAP Continuum Survey</a> is just a preliminary radio survey of 83% of the entire sky, but is already three times more sensitive than comparable surveys with the previous generation of radio telescopes.</p>
<p>For our new study, we no longer needed to look for mere hints of the noise. We detected radio waves from all 40 of the most massive galaxies in our survey area.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-found-some-strange-radio-sources-in-a-distant-galaxy-cluster-theyre-making-us-rethink-what-we-thought-we-knew-187631">We found some strange radio sources in a distant galaxy cluster. They're making us rethink what we thought we knew.</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Dialled up and down</h2>
<p>So, it now looks like all very massive galaxies are emitting radio waves, but are all of their black holes being fed? Most are, but probably not all.</p>
<p><a href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2022A%26A...660A..93C/abstract">Studies with Lofar</a> suggest some radio sources in massive galaxies are afterglows from earlier activity. It is likely these are temporary pauses, and these black holes will fire up again. </p>
<p>Another piece of the puzzle is the radio power. Two galaxies of the same mass can differ in radio power by a factor of 10,000. Why does this happen?</p>
<p>We don’t know the answer yet, but there are some clues. Our work and <a href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2023A%26A...673A..12Z/abstract">a recent study with Lofar</a> find that, on average, the galaxies that rotate the least are the strongest radio wave emitters. Some of the exceptions to this trend are curious, with evidence of mergers with other galaxies. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563526/original/file-20231205-19-f7uav3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A star field with several galaxies of different shapes visible in the centre" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563526/original/file-20231205-19-f7uav3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563526/original/file-20231205-19-f7uav3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563526/original/file-20231205-19-f7uav3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563526/original/file-20231205-19-f7uav3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563526/original/file-20231205-19-f7uav3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563526/original/file-20231205-19-f7uav3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563526/original/file-20231205-19-f7uav3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Galaxy NGC 6876 emits radio waves, but is thousands of times fainter than Messier 87.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Legacy Imaging Surveys/D. Lang (Perimeter Institute)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There is much to learn about very massive galaxies and their black holes, but data from the new generation of radio telescopes has revealed a great deal. </p>
<p>All very massive galaxies emit radio waves, but their power varies. Determining how all this works will be a challenge, but there are clues for astronomers to now follow.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219205/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael J. I. Brown receives research funding from the Australian Research Council and Monash University.</span></em></p>
Do all big black holes in very massive galaxies emit radio waves? We used the latest radio telescopes to find out.
Michael J. I. Brown, Associate Professor in Astronomy, Monash University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/215711
2023-10-30T19:11:21Z
2023-10-30T19:11:21Z
The Beetaloo gas field is a climate bomb. How did CSIRO modelling make it look otherwise?
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556529/original/file-20231030-17-lipsnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=32%2C27%2C3617%2C2046&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Even as Australia braces for a summer of projected extreme heatwaves and bushfires amid the intensifying climate crisis, the fossil gas industry is gearing up for a truly enormous new fracking project in the Northern Territory’s Beetaloo Basin. </p>
<p>In February, a <a href="https://gisera.csiro.au/research/greenhouse-gas-and-air-quality/offsets-for-life-cycle-greenhouse-gas-emissions-of-onshore-gas-in-the-northern-territory/">CSIRO-backed report</a> was published, stating Beetaloo could be developed without adding to Australia’s net emissions. In May, the Northern Territory government gave the green light to the project, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-11/nt-csiro-gisera-report-offsets-beetaloo-basin-emissions/101948768">citing the report</a> as evidence emissions could be “mitigated, reduced or in some cases eliminated”. </p>
<p>This report is important. It was produced by CSIRO’s Gas Industry Social and Environmental Research Alliance in response to a <a href="https://hydraulicfracturing.nt.gov.au/action-items/9.8">key recommendation</a> from the NT’s <a href="https://frackinginquiry.nt.gov.au/inquiry-reports/final-report">Pepper Inquiry</a> into fracking. That recommendation? Territory and federal governments should “seek to ensure” no net increase in life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions in Australia from fracking in the NT. </p>
<p>How could it find a massive new fossil fuel field won’t add to emissions? Our <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/media/emissions_impossible.pdf">forensic analysis</a> of the report found it made the most optimistic assumptions about emissions at every stage, and placed far too much faith in Australia’s ability to offset emissions. </p>
<h2>Remind me – how big is Beetaloo?</h2>
<p>Big. The fossil fuel basin 500 kilometres south of Darwin is bigger than any current gas project on Western Australia’s North-West Shelf. </p>
<p>We estimate 1.2 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions would be emitted over 25 years to 2050 – a figure 45% higher than in the report. </p>
<p>Our analysis shows annual domestic emissions from fracking in the Beetaloo and processing at Darwin’s Middle Arm industrial precinct would produce up to 49 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, 11% of Australia’s total emissions in 2021. That means a single project would produce more emissions than the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-safeguard-mechanism-deal-is-only-a-half-win-for-the-greens-and-for-the-climate-202612">entire reduction goal</a> under Labor’s revised safeguard mechanism.</p>
<p>Our deep dive into the CSIRO report found its cumulative domestic emissions projections are underestimates of up to 84% in some cases. Emissions are underestimated at almost every stage, from how emissions-intensive fracked gas is to how much methane is lost to the atmosphere and how much is emitted in manufacturing LNG. We have submitted our report to the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Environment_and_Communications/MiddleArm">Senate Inquiry into Middle Arm</a>. </p>
<p>The report also underestimates upstream emissions – emissions created by actually fracking the gas and transporting it to Darwin – by up to 110%, and emissions from turning gas into LNG at the plant by up to 89%. </p>
<p>A CSIRO spokesperson told The Conversation: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>CSIRO scientists have delivered a robust and detailed technical analysis, confirmed through an intensive peer review process, of the greenhouse gas emissions associated with onshore gas production scenarios in the Beetaloo Sub-basin, and <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/news/All/Articles/2023/March/mitigating-and-offsetting-greenhouse-gas-emissions-in-the-northern-territory">important information</a> about realistic mitigation and offset options. CSIRO stands behind the quality of its research and the integrity of its peer review process.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>No net increase – by the power of offsets?</h2>
<p>Any large new fossil gas project would, of course, add more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. So how could it represent “no net increase”? </p>
<p>The answer: offsets. The report recommends sequestering carbon in Australia’s soils and forests to offset the global warming caused by burning Beetaloo’s single product, gas. </p>
<p>As we and many <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-11/nt-csiro-gisera-report-offsets-beetaloo-basin-emissions/101948768">other experts</a> have demonstrated, offsets are <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/2023/why-offsets-are-not-a-viable-alternative-to-cutting-emissions">riddled with flaws</a>. Every tonne of fossil carbon we emit stays in the atmosphere <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-tonne-of-fossil-carbon-isnt-the-same-as-a-tonne-of-new-trees-why-offsets-cant-save-us-200901">far longer</a> than the 100 years a land-based offset might store carbon. Around 40% of our emissions remain in the atmosphere after 100 years. Up to a quarter is still there after 1,000 years. And up to 20% is still there after 10,000 years. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-tonne-of-fossil-carbon-isnt-the-same-as-a-tonne-of-new-trees-why-offsets-cant-save-us-200901">A tonne of fossil carbon isn't the same as a tonne of new trees: why offsets can't save us</a>
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<p>Offsets often don’t work over the short term, because many are simply not real or not additional to what would otherwise have happened. Their problems are <a href="https://theconversation.com/now-we-know-the-flaws-of-carbon-offsets-its-time-to-get-real-about-climate-change-181071">now well known</a>, but not broadly accepted by Australian policymakers. </p>
<p>CSIRO’s report uses overly optimistic estimates of how many offsets are likely to be available. If they could be realised, the offsets required for Beetaloo would take up very large areas of land in Australia – up to 2.9 million hectares, 12 times the size of the Australian Capital Territory. </p>
<h2>The problem with blue hydrogen</h2>
<p>Blue hydrogen is touted as another use for Beetaloo gas. Here, hydrogen is made from fossil gas, with emissions captured and stored to reduce the climate impact of Beetaloo. </p>
<p>CSIRO’s report assumes fossil gas facilities can capture 90% of the carbon from the project. This is way too optimistic. To date, no commercial blue hydrogen facility in the world has achieved anything close.</p>
<p>Even with carbon capture and storage <a href="https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/ccep_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-03/ccep_2103_clean_hydrogen_0.pdf">research shows</a> blue hydrogen is very carbon intensive. Energy experts project that green hydrogen – made by breaking water apart with clean energy – <a href="https://about.bnef.com/blog/2023-hydrogen-levelized-cost-update-green-beats-gray">will undercut blue hydrogen</a> on cost by around 2030. </p>
<h2>What about the Middle Arm LNG project?</h2>
<p>After the gas is extracted by hydraulic fracturing, it would be transported to the Middle Arm precinct in Darwin to get ready for shipping. We analysed the total cumulative emissions, including exports. The result? 25 years of emissions from this project and its large LNG plant in Darwin would be more than three times the entire country’s emissions in 2021. </p>
<p>One of the companies looking to profit from Beetaloo, Tamboran Energy, has already announced plans to <a href="https://twitter.com/Tamboran_TBN/status/1668800685402468354">expand after 2030</a>. If this gets up, it would add the equivalent of another 30–38 million cars (10–13% of Australia’s 2021 emissions). Given there are only 15 million cars in Australia, this would wipe out the benefit of making our entire light vehicle fleet electric by the mid 2030s.</p>
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<p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-a-win-for-traditional-owners-origin-is-walking-away-from-the-beetaloo-basin-but-the-fight-against-fracking-is-not-over-190906">In a win for Traditional Owners, Origin is walking away from the Beetaloo Basin. But the fight against fracking is not over</a>
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</p>
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<p>The International Energy Agency <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-roadmap-a-global-pathway-to-keep-the-15-0c-goal-in-reach/a-renewed-pathway-to-net-zero-emissions">has shown</a> we have to slash demand for fossil fuels 25% by 2030 and 80% by 2050 to keep heating under 1.5°C and limit the worst effects of climate change. </p>
<p>If it is allowed to proceed, this single project could undo all of our efforts to cut emissions. Beetaloo and Middle Arm are a climate bomb. They will produce vast volumes of emissions which cannot be offset. The atmosphere doesn’t respond to clever accounting, overly optimistic projections and reliance on offsets – only on how many tonnes of emissions end up there.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215711/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Climate Analytics was commissioned to do this research by the Nurrdalinji Native Title Aboriginal Corporation. Climate Analytics is a non-profit global science and policy institute engaged around the world in driving and supporting climate action aligned to the 1.5°C warming limit.</span></em></p>
In May, the Northern Territory government greenlit the mammoth Beetaloo Basin fracking project. But they did so based on a report with optimistic projections on offsets and emissions.
Bill Hare, Adjunct Professor, Murdoch University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/210882
2023-08-02T03:05:10Z
2023-08-02T03:05:10Z
Voyager 2 has lost track of Earth. Only one antenna in the world can help it ‘phone home’
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540640/original/file-20230802-17534-2xhcac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1280%2C720&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/images/pia21839-voyager-in-deep-space-artist-concept">NASA / JPL-Caltech</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 1977, five years before ET asked to “phone home”, two robotic spacecraft began their own journey into space. </p>
<p>Almost 46 years later, after exploring the Solar System and beyond, one of those spacecraft – Voyager 2 – has lost contact with Earth.</p>
<p>All communication with Voyager 2 goes through NASA’s Deep Space Station 43, a 70-metre radio dish at the <a href="https://www.cdscc.nasa.gov/">Canberra Deep Space Communication Complex</a> operated by CSIRO. </p>
<p>Contact was lost more than a week ago. After intense efforts at NASA and here in Canberra, we have detected a faint “heartbeat” signal from the craft – and we’re confident of re-establishing full contact.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1686469699469778944"}"></div></p>
<h2>Through the Solar System and beyond</h2>
<p>NASA’s twin Voyager spacecraft – Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 – were designed to complete a “grand tour” of the Solar System, visiting the giant planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. </p>
<p>Throughout the billions of kilometres of their journeys, the Voyagers stayed in touch with Earth through the three antennas of the Deep Space Network. One is in Madrid, Spain; a second in Goldstone, California; and the third in Canberra.</p>
<p>Having completed their tasks in 1989, both Voyager 1 and 2 have long since left our Solar System behind. They are now exploring interstellar space – the space between the stars. </p>
<p>Voyager 1 is currently 24 billion kilometres from home, with Voyager 2 not far behind at 20 billion kilometres.</p>
<h2>Whispers from space</h2>
<p>On July 21, a series of planned commands sent to Voyager 2 inadvertently caused the spacecraft’s antenna to point two degrees away from Earth. As a result, the spacecraft is currently unable to receive commands or transmit any data back to Earth.</p>
<p>Mishaps like this are not uncommon in space exploration. The NASA team is expert at problem solving, and has a good track record of keeping spacecraft flying long after their prime mission has ended.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-the-edge-of-the-solar-system-voyager-probes-are-still-talking-to-australia-after-40-years-82512">From the edge of the Solar System, Voyager probes are still talking to Australia after 40 years</a>
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</p>
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<p>NASA’s science and engineering teams have dealt with communication drop-outs before, with both Voyagers. Their efforts have already quadrupled the planned 12-year life of the craft, so they don’t think we’ve heard the last from Voyager 2.</p>
<p>It’s an enormous achievement that we still have contact with these spacecraft at all, given their enormous distance from Earth and the relative weakness of the signal received through the big antenna dishes in Canberra. Even when Voyager 2 is pointing at Earth, its signal is already a whisper from space, billions of times weaker than the power generated by a tiny watch battery.</p>
<h2>A heartbeat 20 billion kilometres from home</h2>
<p>The last time Voyager 2 was out of contact was in March 2020, when the dish at the Canberra Deep Space Communication Complex was shut down for a scheduled 11-month upgrade project. Ahead of the shutdown, commands were sent to Voyager 2 to program the spacecraft to maintain operations without needing to hear from Earth for an extended period.</p>
<p>Canberra’s Deep Space Station 43 is the only antenna in the world that can communicate directly with both Voyagers. Its sister stations in the northern hemisphere are unable to “see” Voyager 2, because Earth is in the way.</p>
<p>Since Voyager 2’s antenna was tweaked off target, we have been using Deep Space Station 43 to listen intently for any signal. Eventually this effort paid off, with the detection of the craft’s carrier tone – a “heartbeat” indicating Voyager 2 is still transmitting.</p>
<p>Now attempts will be made to relay commands to Voyager 2 and tell it to re-orient its antenna towards Earth.</p>
<p>If those attempts fail, Voyager 2 is already programmed to use the Sun and the bright star Canopus to re-orient itself several times each year. The next scheduled reset will occur on October 15, which should automatically enable communications to resume.</p>
<h2>Into interstellar space</h2>
<p>The Canberra team feels a very close connection to this distant traveller. We have been with it on every step of its journey so far, and plan to continue to provide mission support for however long the mission lasts.</p>
<p>Voyager 2 was launched on August 20 1977 and reached Jupiter in July 1979, a few months after Voyager 1. It proceeded to Saturn for a flyby of the ringed planet in 1981, and then had encounters with Uranus in 1986 and Neptune in August 1989, ending the so-called “grand tour”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/after-45-years-the-5-billion-year-legacy-of-the-voyager-2-interstellar-probe-is-just-beginning-188077">After 45 years, the 5-billion-year legacy of the Voyager 2 interstellar probe is just beginning</a>
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</p>
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<p>As both spacecraft were in good health, they were given an extended mission to reach the edge of our Solar System, where the influence of the Sun’s energy ends. The Voyagers are now in the “clear air” of interstellar space and can, for the first time, make direct measurements of this environment.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-019-0928-3">data they have returned</a> are changing our understanding of the Universe. The teams at NASA and here in Canberra are confident there is more science and discoveries to come, when Voyager 2 once again phones home.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210882/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Glen Nagle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
The Voyager 2 spacecraft is 20 billion kilometres away and has lost track of Earth. A radio dish near Canberra is the only channel for re-establishing communication.
Glen Nagle, Outreach Manager, Canberra Deep Space Communication Complex, CSIRO
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/206177
2023-05-25T20:00:36Z
2023-05-25T20:00:36Z
From self-driving cars to military surveillance: quantum computing can help secure the future of AI systems
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528182/original/file-20230525-23-bqxfsg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C62%2C5982%2C3925&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Artificial intelligence algorithms are quickly becoming a part of everyday life. Many systems that require strong security are either already underpinned by machine learning or soon will be. These systems include facial recognition, banking, military targeting applications, and robots and autonomous vehicles, to name a few.</p>
<p>This raises an important question: how secure are these machine learning algorithms against malicious attacks? </p>
<p>In an article <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s42256-023-00661-1">published today</a> in Nature Machine Intelligence, my colleagues at the University of Melbourne and I discuss a potential solution to the vulnerability of machine learning models.</p>
<p>We propose that the integration of quantum computing in these models could yield new algorithms with strong resilience against adversarial attacks. </p>
<h2>The dangers of data manipulation attacks</h2>
<p>Machine learning algorithms can be remarkably accurate and efficient for many tasks. They are particularly useful for classifying and identifying image features. However, they’re also highly vulnerable to data manipulation attacks, which can pose serious security risks. </p>
<p>Data manipulation attacks – which involve the very subtle manipulation of image data – can be launched in several ways. An attack may be launched by mixing corrupt data into a training dataset used to train an algorithm, leading it to learn things it shouldn’t.</p>
<p>Manipulated data can also be injected during the testing phase (after training is complete), in cases where the AI system continues to train the underlying algorithms while in use.</p>
<p>People can even carry out such attacks from the physical world. Someone could put a sticker on a stop sign to <a href="https://towardsdatascience.com/poisoning-attacks-on-machine-learning-1ff247c254db">fool a self-driving car’s</a> AI into identifying it as a speed-limit sign. Or, on the front lines, troops might wear uniforms that can fool AI-based drones into identifying them as landscape features.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-to-z-all-the-terms-you-need-to-know-to-keep-up-in-the-ai-hype-age-203917">AI to Z: all the terms you need to know to keep up in the AI hype age</a>
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<p>Either way, the consequences of data manipulation attacks can be severe. For example, if a self-driving car uses a machine learning algorithm that has been compromised, it may incorrectly predict there are no humans on the road – when there are.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528159/original/file-20230525-24-o6pgti.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528159/original/file-20230525-24-o6pgti.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528159/original/file-20230525-24-o6pgti.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528159/original/file-20230525-24-o6pgti.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528159/original/file-20230525-24-o6pgti.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528159/original/file-20230525-24-o6pgti.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528159/original/file-20230525-24-o6pgti.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528159/original/file-20230525-24-o6pgti.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this example you can see an algorithm that correctly identifies humans based on an image input. However, when a few pixels are changed in an adversarial attack, the algorithm can no longer identify the humans.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.05712">Jan Hendrik Metzen et. al.</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How quantum computing can help</h2>
<p>In our article, we describe how integrating quantum computing with machine learning could give rise to secure algorithms called quantum machine learning models. </p>
<p>These algorithms are carefully designed to exploit special quantum properties that would allow them to find specific patterns in image data that aren’t easily manipulated. The result would be resilient algorithms that are safe against even powerful attacks. They also wouldn’t require the expensive “<a href="https://towardsdatascience.com/what-is-adversarial-machine-learning-dbe7110433d6">adversarial training</a>” currently used to teach algorithms how to resist such attacks.</p>
<p>Beyond this, quantum machine learning could allow for faster algorithmic training and more accuracy in learning features.</p>
<h2>So how would it work?</h2>
<p>Today’s classical computers work by storing and processing information as “bits”, or binary digits, the smallest unit of data a computer can process. In classical computers, which follow the laws of classical physics, bits are represented as binary numbers – specifically 0s and 1s.</p>
<p>Quantum computing, on the other hand, follows principles used in quantum physics. Information in quantum computers is stored and processed as qubits (quantum bits) which can exist as 0, 1, or a combination of both at once. A quantum system that exists in multiple states at once is said to be in a superposition state. Quantum computers can be used to design clever algorithms that exploit this property.</p>
<p>However, while there are significant potential benefits in using quantum computing to secure machine learning models, it could also be a double-edged sword.</p>
<p>On one hand, quantum machine learning models will provide critical security for many sensitive applications. On the other, quantum computers could be used to generate powerful adversarial attacks, capable of easily deceiving even state-of-the-art conventional machine learning models. </p>
<p>Moving forward, we’ll need to seriously consider the best ways to protect our systems; an adversary with access to early quantum computers would pose a significant security threat.</p>
<h2>Limitations to overcome</h2>
<p>The current evidence suggests we’re still some years away from quantum machine learning becoming a reality, due to limitations in the current generation of quantum processors.</p>
<p>Today’s quantum computers are relatively small (with fewer than 500 qubits) and their error rates are high. Errors may arise for several reasons, including imperfect fabrication of qubits, errors in the control circuitry, or loss of information (called “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_decoherence">quantum decoherence</a>”) through interaction with the environment.</p>
<p>Still, we’ve seen enormous progress in quantum hardware and software over the past few years. According to recent quantum hardware <a href="https://www.ibm.com/quantum/roadmap">roadmaps</a>, it’s anticipated quantum devices made in coming years will have hundreds to thousands of qubits.</p>
<p>These devices should be able to run powerful quantum machine learning models to help protect a large range of industries that rely on machine learning and AI tools.</p>
<p>Worldwide, governments and private sectors alike are increasing their investment in quantum technologies. </p>
<p>This month the Australian government launched the <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/national-quantum-strategy">National Quantum Strategy</a>, aimed at growing the nation’s quantum industry and commercialising quantum technologies. According to the CSIRO, Australia’s quantum industry <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/work-with-us/services/consultancy-strategic-advice-services/csiro-futures/future-industries/quantum">could be worth</a> about A$2.2 billion by 2030. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-a-national-quantum-strategy-what-does-that-mean-205232">Australia has a National Quantum Strategy. What does that mean?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206177/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Muhammad Usman receives funding under Australian Army Quantum Technology Challenge (QTC). </span></em></p>
Quantum machine learning models could help us create AI systems that are almost impenetrable by hackers. But in the hands of hackers, the same technology could wreak havoc.
Muhammad Usman, Principal Research Scientist and Team Leader, CSIRO
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/205128
2023-05-18T09:05:21Z
2023-05-18T09:05:21Z
New study helps solve a 30-year-old puzzle: how is climate change affecting El Niño and La Niña?
<p>Human-caused greenhouse gas emissions mean strong El Niño and La Niña events are occurring more often, according to our <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-023-00427-8.epdf?sharing_token=F5jUWk6n2pNs6r4Q_fB-adRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0Pte_xqACNGqtGKpHCToNiPWiuQhld4EzePttPmt4VYL7eOZiV2HFGOgK7IgGtTuVAwQWWw-47LrakAroi0Wb2ex5WSf1srrLocjHXZORLfsvgBdO7_eSRBO47xtzUYeFk%3D">new research</a>, which provides important new evidence of the human fingerprint on Earth’s climate.</p>
<p>For more than 30 years, climate researchers have puzzled over the link between human-caused climate change and El Niño and La Niña events. We set out to bridge this knowledge gap. </p>
<p>Climate scientists have long observed a correlation between climate change impacts on our oceans and atmosphere, and the increase in greenhouse gas emissions from human activity.</p>
<p>Our research examined when this activity may have started to make El Niño and La Niña events more extreme. Our deep analysis found a relationship between human-caused greenhouse gas activity and changes to El Niño and La Niña. </p>
<p>Our findings were five years in the making. They help us understand how El Niño and La Niña will change as the world warms in the future.</p>
<h2>What are El Niño and La Niña?</h2>
<p>La Niña typically brings wet, cooler conditions to much of Australia. Every few years it alternates with an El Niño, which typically brings drier, hotter conditions. Together, the two phases are known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. </p>
<p>The events are driven by changes in sea-surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean. During an El Niño, the surface temperature is warmer than usual. During a La Niña, it’s colder than usual. </p>
<p>Small changes in sea-surface temperature can lead to big changes in the atmosphere. That’s how El Niño and La Niña events can so dramatically affect weather patterns around the world.</p>
<p>The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is naturally occurring. But over the last 50 years or so, strong El Niño and La Niña events have occurred more often. Was climate change playing a role? Our <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-023-00427-8.epdf?sharing_token=F5jUWk6n2pNs6r4Q_fB-adRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0Pte_xqACNGqtGKpHCToNiPWiuQhld4EzePttPmt4VYL7eOZiV2HFGOgK7IgGtTuVAwQWWw-47LrakAroi0Wb2ex5WSf1srrLocjHXZORLfsvgBdO7_eSRBO47xtzUYeFk%3D">research</a> set out to answer this question. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fear-and-wonder-podcast-how-climate-action-can-create-a-more-liveable-future-for-all-205563">Fear and Wonder podcast: how climate action can create a more liveable future for all</a>
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<h2>Unpicking climate ‘variability’</h2>
<p>So how might climate change affect the development of El Niño and La Niña?</p>
<p>Decades of observations of climate change show sea surface temperatures are warming. In many oceans across the world, including the Pacific, this has caused the sea surface to warm faster than the water below.</p>
<p>We wanted to understand what impact this warming had on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the past century.</p>
<p>Our research analysed several simulations produced by 43 “climate models”, or <a href="https://ncas.ac.uk/learn/what-is-a-climate-model/">computer simulations</a> of Earth’s climate system. </p>
<p>First, we compared simulations from between 1901-1960 with those from 1961-2020.
Most results showed an increase in the “variability” of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation since 1960. </p>
<p>Variability refers to a departure from the average. In this case, our results show strong El Niño and La Niña events have occurred more frequently than average since 1960. This finding is consistent with observations over the same periods. </p>
<p>We then examined climate simulations over hundreds of years before humans started ramping up greenhouse gas emissions, and compared these to the simulations after 1960. </p>
<p>This analysis showed even more clearly the very strong variability in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation after 1960. This reinforces the finding that human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are the culprit.</p>
<p>The strong variability has contributed to more extreme and frequent droughts, floods, heatwaves, bushfires and storms around the world.</p>
<h2>So what’s next?</h2>
<p><a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00199-z">Previous research</a> suggests the El Niño-Southern Oscillation will continue to change this century. In particular, we can expect more intense and frequent El Niño and La Niña events. </p>
<p>We can also expect more frequent swings from a strong El Niño to a strong La Niña the following year. </p>
<p>These predictions apply to <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01282-z">various emission scenarios</a>. Even if greenhouse gas emissions were slashed and global warming was kept to 1.5°C, as per the goal of the Paris Agreement, we can expect more frequent strong El Nino events for <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3351">another century</a>. That’s because the Pacific Ocean holds a lot of heat, which will take several decades to dissipate. </p>
<p>Of course, variability in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is already making itself felt. Think back to the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a018.shtml">extreme El Niño of 2015</a>, which led to drought across much of Australia. And of course, a rare “triple” La-Nina from 2020 to 2022 led to severe flooding in eastern Australia. </p>
<p>An El Niño <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/14/extremely-high-likelihood-forecast-el-nino-will-impact-australian-summer-us-scientists-predict">may develop</a> later this year. As climate change worsens, we must prepare for many more of these potentially damaging climate events.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/la-nina-3-years-in-a-row-a-climate-scientist-on-what-flood-weary-australians-can-expect-this-summer-190542">La Niña, 3 years in a row: a climate scientist on what flood-weary Australians can expect this summer</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205128/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Agus Santoso receives funding from CSIRO and NESP. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wenju Cai does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
The research help us understand how El Niño and La Niña will change as the world warms in the future.
Wenju Cai, Chief Research Scientist, Oceans and Atmosphere, CSIRO, CSIRO
Agus Santoso, Senior Research Associate, UNSW Sydney
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/204911
2023-05-04T02:48:23Z
2023-05-04T02:48:23Z
AI pioneer Geoffrey Hinton says AI is a new form of intelligence unlike our own. Have we been getting it wrong this whole time?
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524263/original/file-20230504-16-7qzz0j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=21%2C58%2C4853%2C3304&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Debates about AI often characterise it as a technology that has come to compete with human intelligence. Indeed, one of the most widely pronounced fears is that AI may achieve human-like intelligence and render humans obsolete in the process.</p>
<p>However, one of the world’s top AI scientists is now describing AI as a new form of intelligence – one that poses unique risks, and will therefore require unique solutions. </p>
<p>Geoffrey Hinton, a leading AI scientist and winner of the 2018 Turing Award, just stepped down from his role at Google to <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/05/03/1072589/video-geoffrey-hinton-google-ai-risk-ethics/">warn the world</a> about the dangers of AI. He follows in the steps of more than 1,000 technology leaders who signed an open letter calling for a global halt on the development of advanced AI for at <a href="https://theconversation.com/calls-to-regulate-ai-are-growing-louder-but-how-exactly-do-you-regulate-a-technology-like-this-203050">least six months</a>. </p>
<p>Hinton’s argument is nuanced. While he does think AI has the capacity to become smarter than humans, he also proposes it should be thought of as an altogether <em>different</em> form of intelligence to our own. </p>
<h2>Why Hinton’s ideas matter</h2>
<p>Although experts have been raising red flags for months, Hinton’s decision to voice his concerns is significant. </p>
<p>Dubbed the “godfather of AI”, he has helped pioneer many of the methods underlying the modern AI systems we see today. His early work on neural networks led to him being one of three individuals awarded the <a href="https://awards.acm.org/about/2018-turing">2018 Turing Award</a>. And one of his students, Ilya Sutskever, went on to become co-founder of OpenAI, the organisation behind ChatGPT.</p>
<p>When Hinton speaks, the AI world listens. And if we’re to seriously consider his framing of AI as an intelligent non-human entity, one could argue we’ve been thinking about it all wrong. </p>
<h2>The false equivalence trap</h2>
<p>On one hand, large language model-based tools such as ChatGPT produce text that’s very similar to what humans write. ChatGPT even makes stuff up, or “hallucinates”, which Hinton points out is something humans do as well. But we risk being reductive when we consider such similarities a basis for comparing AI intelligence with human intelligence. </p>
<p>We can find a useful analogy in the invention of artificial flight. For thousands of years, humans tried to fly by imitating birds: flapping their arms with some contraption mimicking feathers. This didn’t work. Eventually, we realised fixed wings create uplift, using a different principle, and this heralded the invention of flight. </p>
<p>Planes are no better or worse than birds; they are different. They do different things and face different risks.</p>
<p>AI (and computation, for that matter) is a similar story. Large language models such as GPT-3 are comparable to human intelligence in many ways, but work differently. ChatGPT crunches vast swathes of text to predict the next word in a sentence. Humans take a different approach to forming sentences. Both are impressive.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/i-tried-the-replika-ai-companion-and-can-see-why-users-are-falling-hard-the-app-raises-serious-ethical-questions-200257">I tried the Replika AI companion and can see why users are falling hard. The app raises serious ethical questions</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How is AI intelligence unique?</h2>
<p>Both AI experts and non-experts have long drawn a link between AI and human intelligence – not to mention the tendency to <a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-isnt-close-to-becoming-sentient-the-real-danger-lies-in-how-easily-were-prone-to-anthropomorphize-it-200525">anthropomorphise AI</a>. But AI is fundamentally different to us in several ways. As Hinton <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/05/02/1072528/geoffrey-hinton-google-why-scared-ai/">explains</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>If you or I learn something and want to transfer that knowledge to someone else, we can’t just send them a copy […] But I can have 10,000 neural networks, each having their own experiences, and any of them can share what they learn instantly. That’s a huge difference. It’s as if there were 10,000 of us, and as soon as one person learns something, all of us know it.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>AI outperforms humans on many tasks, including any task that relies on assembling patterns and information gleaned from large datasets. Humans are sluggishly slow in comparison, and have less than a fraction of AI’s memory. </p>
<p>Yet humans have the upper hand on some fronts. We make up for our poor memory and slow processing speed by using common sense and logic. We can <em>quickly</em> and <em>easily</em> learn how the world works, and use this knowledge to predict the likelihood of events. AI still struggles with this (although researchers are working on it). </p>
<p>Humans are also very energy-efficient, whereas AI requires powerful computers (especially for learning) that use orders of magnitude more energy than us. As Hinton puts it:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>humans can imagine the future […] on a cup of coffee and a slice of toast. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Okay, so what if AI is different to us?</h2>
<p>If AI is fundamentally a different intelligence to ours, then it follows that we can’t (or shouldn’t) compare it to ourselves. </p>
<p>A new intelligence presents new dangers to society and will require a paradigm shift in the way we talk about and manage AI systems. In particular, we may need to reassess the way we think about guarding against the risks of AI.</p>
<p>One of the basic questions that has dominated these debates is how to define AI. After all, AI is not binary; intelligence exists on a spectrum, and the spectrum for human intelligence may be very different from that for machine intelligence.</p>
<p>This very point was the downfall of one of the earliest attempts to regulate AI back in 2017 in New York, when auditors couldn’t agree on which systems <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/10/06/one-of-biggest-problems-in-regulating-ai-is-agreeing-on-definition-pub-88100">should be classified as AI</a>. Defining AI when designing regulation is <a href="https://theconversation.com/regulating-ai-3-experts-explain-why-its-difficult-to-do-and-important-to-get-right-198868">very challenging</a>.</p>
<p>So perhaps we should focus less on defining AI in a binary fashion, and more on the specific consequences of AI-driven actions. </p>
<h2>What risks are we facing?</h2>
<p>The speed of AI uptake in industries has taken everyone by surprise, and some experts are worried about the future of work. </p>
<p>This week, IBM CEO Arvind Krishna <a href="https://gizmodo.com/ibm-tech-jobs-ai-hiring-freeze-chatbot-1850394553">announced the company</a> could be replacing some 7,800 back-office jobs with AI in the next five years. We’ll need to adapt how we manage AI as it becomes increasingly deployed for tasks once completed by humans.</p>
<p>More worryingly, AI’s ability to generate fake text, images and video is leading us into a <a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-tools-are-generating-convincing-misinformation-engaging-with-them-means-being-on-high-alert-202062">new age of information manipulation</a>. Our current methods of dealing with human-generated misinformation won’t be enough to address it. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-could-take-your-job-but-it-can-also-help-you-score-a-new-one-with-these-simple-tips-199883">AI could take your job, but it can also help you score a new one with these simple tips</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Hinton is also worried about the dangers of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-defence-review-fails-to-address-the-third-revolution-in-warfare-artificial-intelligence-204619">AI-driven autonomous weapons</a>, and how bad actors may leverage them to commit all forms of atrocity.</p>
<p>These are just some examples of how AI – and specifically, different characteristics of AI – can bring risk to the human world. To regulate AI productively and proactively, we need to consider these specific characteristics, and not apply recipes designed for human intelligence.</p>
<p>The good news is humans have learnt to manage potentially harmful technologies before, and AI is no different. </p>
<p><em>If you’d like to hear more about the issues discussed in this article, check out the CSIRO’s <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/news/podcasts/Everyday-AI-podcast">Everyday AI podcast</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204911/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olivier Salvado works for CSIRO and lead AI for CSIRO Missions, which receives funding from The Australian Commonwealth and funding bodies. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jon Whittle works for CSIRO as Director of Data61, which receives funding from the Australian Government. Jon is also Chair of UNSW AI Institute's Advisory Board.</span></em></p>
Dubbed the ‘godfather of AI’, Hinton’s early work helped pioneer many of the methods underlying the AI systems we see today.
Olivier Salvado, Lead AI for Missions, CSIRO
Jon Whittle, Director, Data61
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/203545
2023-04-11T05:11:42Z
2023-04-11T05:11:42Z
Batteries won’t cut it – we need solar thermal technology to get us through the night
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520169/original/file-20230411-26-rhfmew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=38%2C38%2C4243%2C2805&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Solar Reserve</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s transition to renewables is gathering speed, but there’s a looming <a href="https://arena.gov.au/blog/csiro-roadmap-points-to-big-energy-storage-gap/">problem with storage</a>. We will need much more long-duration storage to get us through the night, once coal and fossil gas exit the system. </p>
<p>We also need to find new and better ways to create heat for industrial processes. Renewables can supply much of that heat during the day, but energy storage will be required to meet industry’s night-time heat needs.</p>
<p>Solar thermal technology has the potential to provide both long-duration storage and industrial heat, yet it has been largely overlooked in the Australian context. That is about to change. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/work-with-us/services/consultancy-strategic-advice-services/csiro-futures/energy-and-resources/renewable-energy-storage-roadmap">CSIRO Renewable Energy Storage Roadmap</a> identifies a mix of technologies will be required, across sectors, to meet Australia’s energy storage needs, particularly at night. Solar thermal will be an important part of the mix. </p>
<p>Batteries alone won’t cut it. They’re good for short-duration storage, ranging from mere minutes to an hour or two. But you’d need an awful lot of them, at enormous cost, to cover 8-12 hours. Solar thermal becomes cost-effective for long-duration storage at scale, and brings other benefits too. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dFKXGmV_DDE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Solar Power at Night using Concentrated Solar Power by Engineering with Rosie.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-energy-market-operator-is-worried-about-the-grids-reliability-but-should-it-be-200355">Australia's energy market operator is worried about the grid's reliability. But should it be?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Introducing thermal energy storage</h2>
<p>The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) identified <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2022-integrated-system-plan-isp">storage of four to 12 hours’ duration</a> as “the most pressing utility-scale need in the next decade”. That’s what’s required “to manage stronger daily variations in solar and wind output, and to meet consumer demand, also during more extreme days, as coal capacity declines”.</p>
<p>Most people know about lithium-ion battery (chemical) storage and pumped hydro (mechanical) storage. However, thermal energy storage is not well understood or recognised. This is partly due to perceived costs and engineering challenges. However, as concentrated solar thermal plants are built all over the world - <a href="https://www.solarpaces.org/china-now-has-30-csp-projects-with-thermal-energy-storage-underway/">30 are being developed in China</a> alone – the knowledge base is growing. </p>
<p>More than 80% of Australia’s total energy use involves a thermal process: </p>
<ul>
<li>combustion of coal and gas for electricity</li>
<li>combustion of fuels for transport</li>
<li>combustion of fuels for industrial process heat. </li>
</ul>
<p>A large proportion of these existing fossil-fuel thermal processes can be met with renewable thermal energy storage. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520170/original/file-20230411-16-mi0289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Sun-tracking mirrors (heliostats) focus sunlight on a central receiver or power tower at CSIRO Energy in Newcastle" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520170/original/file-20230411-16-mi0289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520170/original/file-20230411-16-mi0289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=781&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520170/original/file-20230411-16-mi0289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=781&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520170/original/file-20230411-16-mi0289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=781&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520170/original/file-20230411-16-mi0289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=982&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520170/original/file-20230411-16-mi0289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=982&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520170/original/file-20230411-16-mi0289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=982&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The CSIRO Energy Centre in Newcastle contains the only operational high-temperature solar thermal research facility of its type in Australia. This is the largest high-concentration solar array in the Southern Hemisphere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The CSIRO Roadmap found thermal energy storage was a relatively low-cost solution with multiple applications, including utility-scale power generation, renewable fuel production and industrial process heat. </p>
<p>For utility-scale power generation, the lowest cost technology for eight-hour storage in 2050 is thermal energy storage using concentrated solar thermal power. The cost in 2050 was slightly over A$100/MWh, compared with lithium-ion battery at A$140/MWh and pumped hydro at around A$155/MWh.</p>
<p>For 24-hour storage technologies in 2050, thermal energy storage was again the lowest cost at A$99/MWh, compared with pumped hydro at A$145/MWh or grid-charged electrical (using solar photovoltaics and wind) thermal energy storage at A$150/MWh.</p>
<p>Short-duration storage is likely to remain the domain of lithium-ion battery for at least up to two hours duration, and perhaps as high as four hours. </p>
<h2>Here’s how it works</h2>
<p>Concentrated solar thermal power uses mirrors to convert sunlight into heat energy. This heat energy is typically stored. </p>
<p>The stored thermal energy can then be used, at any time of day or night, on demand, to produce steam for electricity production, or heat/steam for industrial processes. </p>
<p>The system typically provides for six to 24 hours of operations. What this means is concentrated solar thermal can provide continuous, on demand power and/or process heat 24/7. It can also simultaneously generate power and store heat at the same time.</p>
<p>The stored thermal energy is typically used at night. Concentrated solar thermal systems deployed in China, Spain, the United States, South America, Africa and the Middle East generally have over ten hours of storage, which allows for the overnight generation of renewable power and heat.</p>
<p>Concentrated solar thermal is also a synchronous technology because it uses a traditional spinning turbine (identical to those used in coal-fired power plants). This creates much-needed system-strength and frequency services to the grid. In essence, when coal fired power stations close, concentrated solar thermal is a technology that could continue to provide essential system services.</p>
<p>While more than 100 concentrated solar thermal plants, <a href="https://www.solarpaces.org/csp-technologies/csp-projects-around-the-world/">generating 7GWh of power</a>, have been deployed around the world, the technology has not yet been deployed at scale in Australia. This will soon change with the construction by <a href="https://www.vastsolar.com/">Vast Solar</a> of a 30MW concentrated solar thermal plant in Port Augusta, supported in part by the federal government. The project will have ten hours of thermal energy storage to generate power for supply to the grid, primarily at night. The project will also provide renewable heat and power to produce more than 7,000 tonnes of green (renewable) methanol each year. (Methanol is an essential chemical building block for hundreds of consumer and industrial products such as paints, carpets, fabrics, building materials and liquid fuels). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520189/original/file-20230411-28-r8z07i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Vast Solar's pilot concentrated solar thermal plant in Jemalong, NSW, as seen from the air" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520189/original/file-20230411-28-r8z07i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520189/original/file-20230411-28-r8z07i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520189/original/file-20230411-28-r8z07i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520189/original/file-20230411-28-r8z07i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520189/original/file-20230411-28-r8z07i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520189/original/file-20230411-28-r8z07i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520189/original/file-20230411-28-r8z07i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In Vast Solar’s modular design, deployed at the Jemalong Pilot Plant in central western New South Wales, there are five separate arrays, each concentrating solar radiation onto their own 27m thermal receiver tower.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Vast Solar</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Heed the warning</h2>
<p>We need to start building long-duration energy storage systems now, so we have secure and reliable power when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow. We also need to replace fossil fuels used to create industrial process heat. </p>
<p>Sectors such as mining, industry, transport, agriculture, and households all require secure, reliable, and affordable renewable energy. For many sectors, this need occurs at night, and that necessitates storage. </p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Editor’s note:</strong> Dominic Zaal contributed to the CSIRO Renewable Energy Storage Roadmap as one of a number of internal and external technical advisers.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-116-new-coal-oil-and-gas-projects-equate-to-215-new-coal-power-stations-202135">Australia's 116 new coal, oil and gas projects equate to 215 new coal power stations</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203545/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dominic Zaal receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), which is a Federal Government funding agency. </span></em></p>
Solar thermal technology has the potential to provide both long-duration storage and industrial heat, yet it has been largely overlooked in the Australian context. That is about to change.
Dominic Zaal, Director, Australian Solar Thermal Research Institute (ASTRI), CSIRO
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/184839
2023-01-23T19:18:01Z
2023-01-23T19:18:01Z
Photos from the field: our voyage investigating Australia’s submarine landslides and deep-marine canyons
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504596/original/file-20230116-20-l0myq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=57%2C11%2C7550%2C5064&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ali Jam Productions Photography</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Environmental scientists see flora, fauna and phenomena the rest of us rarely do. In this series, we’ve invited them to share their unique <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/photos-from-the-field-92499">photos from the field</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>We gathered at the edge of the ship deck, awaiting the return of our sediment corer that had been lowered 4.5 kilometres – half the height of Mount Everest – to the seafloor. Our team of 53 people nervously shuffled together like penguins as we speculated about what we’d find.</p>
<p>It was July 2022. We’d been at sea for 36 days on CSIRO’s <a href="https://mnf.csiro.au/">Research Vessel Investigator</a> to explore the edges of our continent and learn how it evolved through time. While we’re all familiar with the shape of modern Australia, our continental mass actually extends well beyond our shorelines. </p>
<p>Over the 36 days of our voyage, we mapped more than 40,000 square kilometres of the seafloor from as shallow as 22 metres to depths of over 4.8km. And we’ve created 3D visualisations of features never seen before. </p>
<p>The steel corer emerged from the deep glistening like pirate treasure. It marks just one of many samples we collected at sea. Analysing them all will probably take years, but we can still share exciting new maps of the seafloor and what they may reveal – from the threat of tsunami in Australia to evidence of ancient beaches and dunes. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505709/original/file-20230121-18-u06oai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A coloured image of the Australian continental land mass" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505709/original/file-20230121-18-u06oai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505709/original/file-20230121-18-u06oai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505709/original/file-20230121-18-u06oai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505709/original/file-20230121-18-u06oai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505709/original/file-20230121-18-u06oai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505709/original/file-20230121-18-u06oai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505709/original/file-20230121-18-u06oai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An exaggerated 3D view of the Australian continental land mass and surrounding oceans. Beyond the shallow continental shelf seas (orange), the continental slope drops abruptly to the deep ocean floor (blue).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ecat.ga.gov.au/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/67703">Geoscience Australia/© Commonwealth of Australia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The threat of tsunami</h2>
<p>Our research voyage aimed to investigate how mud and sand flows from our continent into the deep oceans. Along the way, these different sediments can travel down submarine canyons and form large landslides. </p>
<p>Sometimes, these submarine landslides are large enough to <a href="https://theconversation.com/scars-left-by-australias-undersea-landslides-reveal-future-tsunami-potential-85982">trigger a tsunami</a> – so we’re also working to understand what the local <a href="https://theconversation.com/making-waves-the-tsunami-risk-in-australia-60623">tsunami risk</a> is for Australia’s eastern seaboard communities.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504597/original/file-20230116-18-nz2wpv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The front of a ship" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504597/original/file-20230116-18-nz2wpv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504597/original/file-20230116-18-nz2wpv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504597/original/file-20230116-18-nz2wpv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504597/original/file-20230116-18-nz2wpv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504597/original/file-20230116-18-nz2wpv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504597/original/file-20230116-18-nz2wpv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504597/original/file-20230116-18-nz2wpv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The weather at sea isn’t always clear and calm. Early on in the trip we experienced winds of up to 50 knots.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mike Kinsela</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504598/original/file-20230116-16-yajc4p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People on a ship in high-vis jackets watch a cable lower a scientific instrument into the sea" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504598/original/file-20230116-16-yajc4p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504598/original/file-20230116-16-yajc4p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504598/original/file-20230116-16-yajc4p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504598/original/file-20230116-16-yajc4p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504598/original/file-20230116-16-yajc4p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504598/original/file-20230116-16-yajc4p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504598/original/file-20230116-16-yajc4p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Two Argo floats will be part of an international program consisting of a fleet of robotic instruments that drift with the ocean currents to collect information from inside the ocean. Here you can see an Argo float being deployed at dawn while the night shift scientists watch on.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mike Kinsela</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A big part of understanding the potential threat of tsunami is learning how the material from the submarine landslides along the eastern seaboard has moved down into the deep ocean. For example, does it go as a single, large slab of sediment, failing all at once? Or does it slowly break apart, with smaller pieces heading down slope one at a time as a slurry of sediment and water? </p>
<p>While Australia has a relatively low tsunami risk compared to other places around the world, we are still exposed and so should heed warnings from emergency services.</p>
<p>A recent tsunami to hit Australia was caused by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/waves-from-the-tonga-tsunami-are-still-being-felt-in-australia-and-even-a-50cm-surge-could-knock-you-off-your-feet-175056">underwater volcanic explosion in Tonga</a> in January last year. This brought waves of more than 80 centimetres to the Gold Coast, which could knock you off your feet.</p>
<h2>Mapping the seafloor surface</h2>
<p>We mapped areas of the seafloor with a level of precision not available to previous generations of hydrographers and map-makers in Australia. Some areas were nearly 5km deep and over 100 nautical miles from the coast.</p>
<p>To do this, we use a multibeam system. This involves sending out sound waves from the bottom of the ship in a wide cone-shape. These sound waves bounce off the seafloor back to the ship, giving us information about the depth of the seafloor and allowing us to map any features on its surface. </p>
<p>One feature we remapped was an area of the continental slope offshore of Yamba, New South Wales. Here we see cliffs up to a few hundred metres high – evidence of slope failure and sliding.</p>
<figure>
<style>
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</style>
<iframe frameborder="0" class="juxtapose2" width="100%" height="290px" src="https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/juxtapose/latest/embed/index.html?uid=d05c1564-9ab6-11ed-b5bd-6595d9b17862"></iframe>
<figcaption>A section of seafloor off the coast of Yamba, NSW. The images show the mapped area before and after the voyage, clearly showing newly mapped areas and the large submarine landslide in the middle of the new mapping. Red indicates shallower areas on the continental shelf and purple indicates deeper areas, including the edge of the abyssal plain. The image is looking west towards the Australian continent. Data from CSIRO Marine National Facility. Maps by Elise Buller, Author provided</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also remapped the scar from the Bulli submarine landslide, which is the biggest submarine landslide identified on the Australian continental margin to date. At over 25km long and over 10km wide, the Bulli landslide off Wollongong in NSW removed 40 cubic kilometres of sediment from the edge of our continent. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505768/original/file-20230123-7722-xurvux.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A green, orange and yellow map" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505768/original/file-20230123-7722-xurvux.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505768/original/file-20230123-7722-xurvux.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=299&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505768/original/file-20230123-7722-xurvux.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=299&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505768/original/file-20230123-7722-xurvux.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=299&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505768/original/file-20230123-7722-xurvux.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505768/original/file-20230123-7722-xurvux.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505768/original/file-20230123-7722-xurvux.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Drowned coastal dunes on the continental shelf, 60-100m below present sea level. These dunes were formed above water when sea levels were lower and were preserved as the coastline migrated over them thousands of years later. In mapping these drowned dunes and similar features, we uncovered new evidence of ancient coastlines. Orange and red colours indicate shallower areas, while green colours indicate deeper areas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Data from CSIRO Marine National Facility. Map by Mike Kinsela</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But to get a true feel for the multibeam system’s capabilities, we also mapped the <a href="https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/maritimeheritageapp/ViewSiteDetail.aspx?siteid=990">wreck of the Limerick</a>, a ship sunk by Japanese submarines off Australia’s east coast near Cape Byron in 1943. This also supported efforts to understand the current state of the famous shipwreck. </p>
<p>The wreck sits upside down in about 80m of water. To get a better view, we also lowered a camera to the torpedo hole in the side that sunk the ship.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505732/original/file-20230122-52981-vj6l2t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An image of a wrecked ship on the seafloor" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505732/original/file-20230122-52981-vj6l2t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505732/original/file-20230122-52981-vj6l2t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505732/original/file-20230122-52981-vj6l2t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505732/original/file-20230122-52981-vj6l2t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505732/original/file-20230122-52981-vj6l2t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505732/original/file-20230122-52981-vj6l2t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505732/original/file-20230122-52981-vj6l2t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A downward looking image of the stern of the MV Limerick wreck collected using the towed drop camera. The MV Limerick sits upside down on the seafloor.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO MNF</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505733/original/file-20230122-49851-2iwitc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505733/original/file-20230122-49851-2iwitc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505733/original/file-20230122-49851-2iwitc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505733/original/file-20230122-49851-2iwitc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505733/original/file-20230122-49851-2iwitc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505733/original/file-20230122-49851-2iwitc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505733/original/file-20230122-49851-2iwitc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505733/original/file-20230122-49851-2iwitc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A sideways looking image of the stern of the MV Limerick wreck clearly showing the ships propellers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO MNF</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Beneath the seafloor</h2>
<p>Understanding what’s on the surface of the seafloor tells us a lot about what has happened over the last few hundreds of thousands of years. </p>
<p>But looking below the surface at the sediment layers beneath can tell us how the seafloor has evolved over millions of years. </p>
<p>To do this, we use techniques that send out pulses of sound that can penetrate the seafloor. These pulses then listen for return signals that bounce off interfaces of different types of sediments and rocks. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504605/original/file-20230116-14-nz2wpv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men on a ship at night holding sediment" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504605/original/file-20230116-14-nz2wpv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504605/original/file-20230116-14-nz2wpv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504605/original/file-20230116-14-nz2wpv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504605/original/file-20230116-14-nz2wpv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504605/original/file-20230116-14-nz2wpv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504605/original/file-20230116-14-nz2wpv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504605/original/file-20230116-14-nz2wpv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Samples being brought up from the seafloor is always a very exciting moment. Here, Chief Scientist A/ Prof Tom Hubble (right), inspects a freshly retrieved dredge sample late in the night at the end of his shift.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ali Jam Productions Photography</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Through these sub-surface imaging techniques, we have identified a range of interesting features. These include extinct river channels that were previously above the sea surface when sea levels were much lower in the past. </p>
<p>But to really tie things down we need physical samples of the seafloor and the sediment beneath it. Doing this is a challenge when you’re floating kilometres above the seafloor you want to sample.</p>
<p>So we use deep sea sediment corers and dredges, lowered down on winches with kilometres of cable. Corers punch into the seafloor and bring us back a column of sediment, while dredges drag along the bottom pulling up bits of mud and rocks, bringing them on board in big chain baskets. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504604/original/file-20230116-20-nz2wpv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Three scientists peering into a sediment core" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504604/original/file-20230116-20-nz2wpv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504604/original/file-20230116-20-nz2wpv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504604/original/file-20230116-20-nz2wpv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504604/original/file-20230116-20-nz2wpv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504604/original/file-20230116-20-nz2wpv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504604/original/file-20230116-20-nz2wpv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504604/original/file-20230116-20-nz2wpv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One of the goals of our voyage was to help train the next generation of marine geoscientists. Here, one of the 12 student volunteers, Ruby (left), discusses a freshly retrieved and opened core with principal scientists A/ Prof Hannah Power and Dr Mike Kinsela.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Murray Kendall</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Once on board, these samples are carefully analysed to look for key features that will help us piece together the puzzle of the continental margin’s evolution. Further work, such as radiocarbon dating and isotope analysis, is conducted in the months to years after the voyage to complete the analysis. </p>
<p>We’ve collected some fascinating new data that will keep us busy for years to come, but we also had time for table tennis competitions, a few movie nights, and a daily debate on which of the many delicious meals onboard was the favourite. </p>
<p>And we can’t forget the many spectacular sunrises and sunsets!</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504610/original/file-20230116-12-q15z73.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Person watching the sunset from a ship" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504610/original/file-20230116-12-q15z73.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504610/original/file-20230116-12-q15z73.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504610/original/file-20230116-12-q15z73.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504610/original/file-20230116-12-q15z73.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504610/original/file-20230116-12-q15z73.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504610/original/file-20230116-12-q15z73.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504610/original/file-20230116-12-q15z73.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sunrises at sea are unforgettable.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Hannah Power</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184839/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hannah Power receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the NSW State Government State Emergency Management Program, the Queensland Resilience and Risk Reduction Fund, the New Zealand Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment Endeavour Fund, and ship time from Australia's Marine National Facility. She is a member of the NSW Coastal Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kendall Mollison receives funding from the Queensland Resilience and Risk Reduction Fund, the New Zealand Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment Endeavour Fund, and ship time from Australia's Marine National Facility administered by CSIRO. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Kinsela receives funding from the NSW Department of Planning and Environment and research vessel time from the Marine National Facility (MNF) administered by CSIRO. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>The voyage on RV Investigator described in this article was funded by the Australian Government as part of the CSIRO’s Marine National Facility (MNF) program.</span></em></p>
From a shipwreck to ancient dunes, these researchers created 3D visualisations of seafloor features around Australia – from as shallow as 22 metres to depths of over 4.8 kilometres.
Hannah Power, Associate Professor in Coastal and Marine Science, University of Newcastle
Kendall Mollison, Postdoctoral researcher, University of Newcastle
Michael Kinsela, Lecturer in Coastal and Ocean Geoscience, University of Newcastle
Tom Hubble, Associate Professor, University of Sydney
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/195136
2022-11-23T00:27:51Z
2022-11-23T00:27:51Z
State of the climate: what Australians need to know about major new report
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496769/original/file-20221122-19-y5r6vm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C0%2C4162%2C2906&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Crosling/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The latest State of the Climate report is <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/climate-change/state-of-the-climate">out</a>, and there’s not much good news for Australians.</p>
<p>Our climate has warmed by an average 1.47°C since national records began, bringing the continent close to the 1.5°C limit the Paris Agreement hoped would never be breached. When global average warming reaches this milestone, some of Earth’s natural systems are predicted to suffer <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2021/08/09/ar6-wg1-20210809-pr/">catastrophic damage</a>.</p>
<p>The report, released today, paints a concerning picture of ongoing and worsening climate change. In Australia, associated impacts such as extreme heat, bushfires, drought, heavy rainfall, and coastal inundation threaten our people and our environment. </p>
<p>The report is a comprehensive biennial snapshot of the latest trends in climate, with a focus on Australia. It’s compiled by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, drawing on the latest national and international climate research.</p>
<p>It synthesises the latest science about Australia’s climate and builds on the previous 2020 report by including, for example, information from the most recent assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.</p>
<p>And the take home message? Climate change continues unabated. The world is warming, sea levels are rising, ice is melting, fire weather is worsening, flooding rains are becoming more frequent – and the list goes on. </p>
<p>What follows is a summary of major findings in three key categories – and an explanation of what it all means.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="building with red sun" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496773/original/file-20221122-18-hnedl7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496773/original/file-20221122-18-hnedl7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496773/original/file-20221122-18-hnedl7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496773/original/file-20221122-18-hnedl7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496773/original/file-20221122-18-hnedl7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496773/original/file-20221122-18-hnedl7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496773/original/file-20221122-18-hnedl7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The report synthesises the latest science about Australia’s climate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Steven Saphore/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. Warming, heat extremes and bushfire</h2>
<p>The 2020 report said Australia’s climate has warmed on average by 1.44°C since national records began in 1910. That warming has now increased to 1.47°C. This mirrors trends across the world’s land areas, and brings with it more frequent extreme heat events.</p>
<p>The year 2019 was Australia’s warmest on record. The eight years from 2013 to 2020 are all among the ten warmest ever measured. Warming is happening both by day and by night, and across all months.</p>
<p>Since the 1950s, extreme fire weather has increased and the fire season has lengthened across much of the country. It’s resulted in bigger and more frequent fires, especially in southern Australia. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-planting-tomatoes-shows-us-about-climate-change-193830">What planting tomatoes shows us about climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="woman floats in water at beach" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496770/original/file-20221122-26-fi2dk3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496770/original/file-20221122-26-fi2dk3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496770/original/file-20221122-26-fi2dk3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496770/original/file-20221122-26-fi2dk3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496770/original/file-20221122-26-fi2dk3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496770/original/file-20221122-26-fi2dk3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496770/original/file-20221122-26-fi2dk3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The warming climate brings more frequent extreme heat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kelly Barnes/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. Rain, floods and snow</h2>
<p>In Australia’s southwest, May to July rainfall has fallen by 19% since 1970. In the southeast of Australia, April to October rainfall has fallen by 10% since the late 1990s. </p>
<p>This will come as somewhat of a surprise given the relatively wet conditions across eastern Australia over the past few years. But don’t confuse longer term trends with year-to-year variability.</p>
<p>Lower rainfall has led to reduced streamflow; some 60% of water gauges around Australia show a declining trend.</p>
<p>At the same time, heavy rainfall events are becoming more intense – a fact not lost on flood-stricken residents in Australia’s eastern states in recent months. The intensity of extreme rainfall events lasting an hour has increased by about 10% or more in some regions in recent decades. This often brings flash flooding, especially in urban environments. The costs to society are enormous.</p>
<p>Warm air can hold more water vapour than cooler air. That’s why global warming makes heavy rainfall events more likely, even in places where average rainfall is expected to decline.</p>
<p>Also since the 1950s, snow depth and cover, and the number of snow days, have decreased in alpine regions. The largest declines are happening in spring and at lower altitudes.</p>
<p>Extremely cold days and nights are generally becoming less frequent across the continent. And while parts of southeast and southwest Australia have recently experienced very cold nights, that’s because cool seasons have become drier and winter nights clearer there, leading to more overnight heat loss. </p>
<p>Any camper will tell you how chilly it can get on a clear starry night, without the warm blanket of cloud cover.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-new-south-wales-reels-many-are-asking-why-its-flooding-in-places-where-its-never-flooded-before-190912">As New South Wales reels, many are asking why it's flooding in places where it's never flooded before</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="man photographs flooded road" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496771/original/file-20221122-17-rmldox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496771/original/file-20221122-17-rmldox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496771/original/file-20221122-17-rmldox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496771/original/file-20221122-17-rmldox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496771/original/file-20221122-17-rmldox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496771/original/file-20221122-17-rmldox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496771/original/file-20221122-17-rmldox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Heavy rainfall events are becoming more intense.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jason O'Brien/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Oceans and sea levels</h2>
<p>Sea surface temperatures around the continent have increased by an average 1.05°C since 1900. The greatest ocean warming since 1970 has occurred off southeast Australia and Tasmania. In the Tasman Sea, the warming rate is now twice the global average. </p>
<p>Ongoing ocean warming has also contributed to longer and more frequent marine heatwaves. Marine heatwaves are particularly damaging to ecosystems, including the Great Barrier Reef, which is at perilous risk of ruin if nothing is done to address surging greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>Oceans around Australia have also become more acidic, and this damage is accelerating. The greatest change is occurring in temperate and cooler waters to the south.</p>
<p>Sea levels are rising globally and around Australia. This is driven by both ocean warming and melting ice. Ice loss from Greenland, Antarctica and glaciers is increasing, and only set to get worse. </p>
<p>Around Australia, the largest sea level rise has been observed to the north and southeast of the continent. This is increasing the risk of inundation and damage to coastal infrastructure and communities.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="damaged coastline including pool fallen onto beach" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496772/original/file-20221122-22-u13cm4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496772/original/file-20221122-22-u13cm4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496772/original/file-20221122-22-u13cm4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496772/original/file-20221122-22-u13cm4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496772/original/file-20221122-22-u13cm4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496772/original/file-20221122-22-u13cm4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496772/original/file-20221122-22-u13cm4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rising sea levels increase the risk of damage to coastal infrastructure.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Moir/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s causing this?</h2>
<p>All this is happening because concentrations of greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere continue to rise. The principal driver of these gases is human burning of fossil fuels. These long-lived gases form a “blanket” in the atmosphere that makes it harder for Earth to radiate the Sun’s heat back into space. And so, the planet warms, with very costly impacts to society. </p>
<p>The report confirmed carbon dioxide (CO₂) has been accumulating in the atmosphere at an increasing rate in recent decades. Worryingly, over the past two years, levels of methane and nitrous oxide have also grown very rapidly.</p>
<h2>What comes next?</h2>
<p>None of these problems are going away. Australia’s weather and climate will continue to change in coming decades. </p>
<p>As the report states, these climate changes are increasingly affecting the lives and livelihoods of all Australians. It goes on:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Australia needs to plan for, and adapt to, the changing nature of climate risk now and in the decades ahead. The severity of impacts on Australians and our environment will depend on the speed at which global greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This point is particularly confronting, given the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-flinched-on-phasing-out-all-fossil-fuels-whats-next-for-the-fight-to-keep-them-in-the-ground-194941">abject failure</a> of the recent COP27 climate talks in Egypt to build on commitments from Glasgow only a year earlier to phase out fossil fuels. </p>
<p>It’s no surprise, then, that the insurance sector is <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11454605/NSW-floods-Insurers-wont-renew-flood-cover-towns-Forbes-Molong-Cabonne-Council.html">getting nervous </a> about issuing new policies to people living at the front-line of climate extremes.</p>
<p>While the urgency for action has never been more pressing, we still hold the future in our hands - the choices we make today will decide our future for generations to come. Every 0.1°C of warming we can avoid will make a big difference.</p>
<p>But it’s not all bad news. Re-engineering our energy and transport systems to be carbon neutral will create a whole new economy and jobs growth - with the added bonus of a safer climate future. </p>
<p>Do nothing, and these State of the Climate reports will continue to make for grim reading. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-flinched-on-phasing-out-all-fossil-fuels-whats-next-for-the-fight-to-keep-them-in-the-ground-194941">COP27 flinched on phasing out 'all fossil fuels'. What's next for the fight to keep them in the ground?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195136/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew England receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>
The report synthesises the latest science about Australia’s climate – and paints a worrying picture.
Matthew England, Scientia Professor and Deputy Director of the ARC Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science (ACEAS), UNSW Sydney
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/189622
2022-09-05T20:04:33Z
2022-09-05T20:04:33Z
5 virus families that could cause the next pandemic, according to the experts
<p>The CSIRO has delivered a comprehensive <a href="https://www.csiro.au/pandemic">report</a> on how we should prepare for future pandemics. </p>
<p>The report identifies six key science and technology areas such as faster development of vaccines and onshore vaccine manufacturing to ensure supply, new antivirals and ways of using the medicines we already have, better ways of diagnosing cases early, genome analysis, and data sharing. </p>
<p>It also recommends we learn more about viruses and their hosts across the five most concerning virus families. These causes of disease could fuel the next pandemic. </p>
<p>We asked leading experts about the diseases they can cause and why authorities should prepare well:</p>
<h2>1. Coronaviridae</h2>
<p><strong><em>COVID-19, Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), severe acquired respiratory syndrome (SARS)</em></strong></p>
<p>The first human <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7204879/">Coronaviruses</a> (229E and OC43) were found in 1965 and 1967 respectively. They were low-grade pathogens causing only mild cold-like symptoms and gastroenteritis. Initial understanding of this family came from study of related strains that commonly infect livestock or laboratory mice that also caused non-fatal disease. The <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3358201/">HKU-1 strain in 1995</a> again did not demonstrate an ability to generate high levels of disease. As such, coronaviridae were not considered a major concern until severe acquired respiratory syndrome (<a href="https://www.who.int/health-topics/severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome#tab=tab_1">SARS-1</a>) first appeared in 2002 in China.</p>
<p>Coronaviridae have a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22785-x">very long RNA genome</a>, coding up to 30 viral proteins. Only four or five genes make infectious virus particles, but many others support diseases from this family by modifying immune responses. The viruses in this family mutate at a steady low rate, selecting changes in the outer spike to allow virus entry into new host cells.</p>
<p>Coronaviridae viruses are widespread in many ecological niches and common in bat species that make up <a href="https://www.si.edu/spotlight/bats/batfacts">20% of all mammals</a>. Mutations spread in their roosts can spillover into other mammals, such as the <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11259-020-09781-0">civet cat</a>, then into humans. </p>
<p>Coronaviridae <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/genomic-surveillance.html">genome surveillance</a> shows an array of previously unknown virus strains circulating in different ecological niches. Climate change threatens intersections of these viral transmission networks. Furthermore, pandemic human spread of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID) has now seeded new transmissions back into other species, such as mink, cats, dogs and white-tailed deer. </p>
<p>Ongoing viral evolution in new animal hosts and also in immune-compromised <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj-2021-069807">HIV patients in under-resourced settings</a>, presents an ongoing source of new variants of concern.</p>
<p><strong>– Damian Purcell</strong></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/long-covid-how-researchers-are-zeroing-in-on-the-self-targeted-immune-attacks-that-may-lurk-behind-it-169911">Long COVID: How researchers are zeroing in on the self-targeted immune attacks that may lurk behind it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>2. Flaviviridae</h2>
<p><strong><em>Dengue fever, Japanese encephalitis, Zika, West Nile fever</em></strong></p>
<p>The flaviviridae family causes several diseases, including dengue, Japanese encephalitis, Zika, West Nile disease and others. These diseases are often not life-threatening, causing fever, sometimes with rash or painful joints. A small proportion of those infected get severe or complicated infection. Japanese encephalitis can cause inflammation of the brain, and Zika virus can cause birth defects.</p>
<p>While all these viruses may be spread by mosquito bites, when it comes to each individual virus, not all mosquitoes bring equal risk. There are <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/zika/prevention/transmission-methods.html#:%7E:text=Zika%20virus%20is%20transmitted%20to,spread%20dengue%20and%20chikungunya%20viruses.">key mosquito species</a> involved in transmission cycles of dengue and Zika virus, such as <em>Aedes aegypti</em> and <em>Aedes albopictus</em>, that may be found in close to where people live. These mosquitoes are found in water-holding containers (such as potted plant saucers, rainwater tanks), water-filled plants, and tree holes. They also like to bite people.</p>
<p>The mosquitoes that spread these viruses are not currently widespread in Australia; they’re generally limited to central and far north Queensland. They are routinely detected through biosecurity surveillance at Australia’s major <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8005993/">airports and seaports</a>. With a rapid return to international travel, movement of people and their belongings may become an ever-increasing pathway of introduction of the diseases and mosquitoes back into Australia.</p>
<p>Different mosquitoes are involved in the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7000427/">transmission</a> of West Nile virus and Japanese encephalitis. These mosquitoes are more likely to be found in wetlands and bushland areas than backyards. They bite people but they also like to <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-australian-wildlife-spread-and-suppress-ross-river-virus-107267">bite the animals</a> most likely to be carrying these viruses. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/japanese-encephalitis-virus-has-been-detected-in-australian-pigs-can-mozzies-now-spread-it-to-humans-178017">emergence of Japanese encephalitis</a>, a virus spread by mosquitoes between waterbirds, pigs, and people, is a perfect example. Extensive rains and flooding that provide idea conditions for mosquitoes and these animals create a “perfect storm” for disease emergence. </p>
<p><strong>– Cameron Webb & Andrew van den Hurk</strong></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/japanese-encephalitis-virus-has-been-detected-in-australian-pigs-can-mozzies-now-spread-it-to-humans-178017">Japanese encephalitis virus has been detected in Australian pigs. Can mozzies now spread it to humans?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>3. Orthomyxoviridae</h2>
<p><strong><em>Influenza</em></strong></p>
<p>Before COVID-19, influenza was the infection most <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/australian-health-management-plan-for-pandemic-influenza-ahmppi">well-known</a> for causing pandemics.</p>
<p>Influenza virus is subdivided into types (A, B, and rarely C and D). Influenza A is further classified into subtypes based on haemagglutinin (H) and neuraminidase (N) protein variants on the surface of the virus. Currently, the most common influenza strains in humans are A/H1N1 and A/H3N2.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/spotlight/influenza-are-we-ready/zoonotic-influenza">Zoonotic infection</a> occurs when influenza strains that primarily affect animals “spill over” to humans. </p>
<p>Major changes in the influenza virus usually result from <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp0904572">new combinations</a> of influenza viruses that affect birds, pigs and humans. New strains have the potential to cause pandemics as there is little pre-existing immunity.</p>
<p>Since the beginning of the 20th century, there have been four influenza <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/basics/past-pandemics.html">pandemics</a>, in 1918, 1957, 1968, and 2009. In between pandemics, seasonal influenza circulates throughout the world. </p>
<p>Although influenza is not as infectious as many other respiratory infections, the very short incubation period of around 1.4 days means outbreaks can spread quickly.</p>
<p>Vaccines are available to prevent influenza, but are only <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31903487/">partially</a> protective. Antiviral treatments are available, including oseltamivir, zanamivir, peramivir and baloxavir. Oseltamivir <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(14)62449-1/fulltext">decreases</a> the duration of illness by around 24 hours if started early, but whether it reduces the risk of severe influenza and its complications is <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600%2814%2970041-4/fulltext">controversial</a>.</p>
<p><strong>– Allen Cheng</strong> </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/my-year-as-victorias-deputy-chief-health-officer-on-the-pandemic-press-conferences-and-our-covid-future-166164">My year as Victoria's deputy chief health officer: on the pandemic, press conferences and our COVID future</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>4. Paramyxoviridae</h2>
<p><strong><em>Nipah virus, Hendra virus</em></strong></p>
<p>Paramyxoviridae are a large group of viruses that affect humans and animals. The most well known are measles and mumps, as well as parainfluenza virus (a common cause of <a href="https://www.rch.org.au/kidsinfo/fact_sheets/Croup/">croup</a> in children). </p>
<p>Globally, <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/measles">measles</a> is a dangerous disease for young children, particularly those who are malnourished. Vaccines are highly effective with the measles vaccine alone <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/12-11-2015-measles-vaccination-has-saved-an-estimated-17-1-million-lives-since-2000">estimated</a> to have saved 17 million lives between 2000 and 2014.</p>
<p>One group of paramyxoviruses is of particular importance for pandemic planning – henipaviruses. This includes Hendra virus, Nipah virus and the new <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-this-new-langya-virus-do-we-need-to-be-worried-188577">Langya virus</a> (as well as the fictional MEV-1 in the film <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUS57323549020110913">Contagion</a>). These are all zoonoses (diseases that spill over from animals to humans)</p>
<p>Hendra virus was first <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.5694/j.1326-5377.1995.tb126050.x">discovered</a> in Queensland in 1994, when it caused the deaths of 14 horses and their horse trainer. Infected flying foxes have since spread the virus to horses in Queensland and northern New South Wales. There have been seven <a href="https://www.outbreak.gov.au/for-vets-and-scientists/hendra-virus">reported</a> human cases of Hendra virus in Australia, including four deaths.</p>
<p>Nipah virus is more <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/nipah-virus">significant</a> globally. Infection may be mild, but some people develop encephalitis (inflammation of the brain). Outbreaks frequently occur in Bangladesh, where the first <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10781618/">outbreak</a> was reported in 1998. Significantly, Nipah virus appears to be able to be <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6547369/">transmitted</a> from person-to-person though close contact.</p>
<p><strong>– Allen Cheng</strong></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-this-new-langya-virus-do-we-need-to-be-worried-188577">What is this new Langya virus? Do we need to be worried?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>5. Togaviridae (alphaviruses)</h2>
<p><strong><em>Chikungunya fever, Ross River fever, Eastern equine encephalitis, Western equine encephalitis, Venezuelan equine encephalitis</em></strong></p>
<p>The most common disease symptoms caused by infection with alphaviruses like chikungunya and Ross River viruses are fever, rash and painful joints.</p>
<p>Like some flaviviruses, <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/chikungunya">chikungunya virus</a> is thought to be only spread by <em>Aedes aegypti</em> mosquitoes in Australia. This limits risks, for now, to central and far north Queensland. </p>
<p>Many different mosquitoes play a role in transmission of alphaviruses, including dozens of mosquito species suspected as playing a role in the spread of <a href="http://conditions.health.qld.gov.au/HealthCondition/condition/14/217/120/ross-river-virus">Ross River fever</a>. Many of these mosquitoes <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-can-the-bite-of-a-backyard-mozzie-in-australia-make-you-sick-171601">are commonly found across Australia</a>. </p>
<p>But what role may these local mosquitoes play should diseases such as eastern equine encephalitis or western equine encephalitis make their way to Australia? Given the capacity of our home-grown mosquitoes to spread other alphaviruses, it is reasonable to assume they would be effective at transmitting these as well. That’s why the CSIRO report <a href="https://www.csiro.au/pandemic">notes</a> future pandemic preparation should work alongside Australia’s established biosecurity measures. </p>
<p><strong>– Cameron Webb & Andrew van den Hurk</strong></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-can-the-bite-of-a-backyard-mozzie-in-australia-make-you-sick-171601">How can the bite of a backyard mozzie in Australia make you sick?</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189622/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Allen Cheng receives funding from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council and the Australian government for research, including in influenza. He is Chair of the Advisory Committee for Vaccines and a member of the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew van den Hurk has received funding from local, state and federal agencies to study the ecology of mosquito-borne pathogens, and their surveillance and control. He is an employee of the Department of Health, Queensland Government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cameron Webb and the Department of Medical Entomology, NSW Health Pathology, have been engaged by a wide range of insect repellent and insecticide manufacturers to provide testing of products and provide expert advice on mosquito biology. Cameron has also received funding from local, state and federal agencies to undertake research into mosquito-borne disease surveillance and management.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Damian Purcell consults for Moderna on mRNA vaccine education and receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, and the Victorian Government grants. He is Past Presidents' advisor for the Australasian Virology Society, and Committee member of the RNA Network of Australia.</span></em></p>
Authorities have been warned about five virus families that could cause future pandemics. Here are snapshots of the diseases each can cause and why we should be worried.
Allen Cheng, Professor in Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, Monash University
Andrew van den Hurk, Medical Entomologist, The University of Queensland
Cameron Webb, Clinical Associate Professor and Principal Hospital Scientist, University of Sydney
Damian Purcell, Professor of virology and theme leader for viral infectious diseases, The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/180859
2022-04-18T19:57:32Z
2022-04-18T19:57:32Z
Plant-based patties, lab-grown meat and insects: how the protein industry is innovating to meet demand
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457569/original/file-20220412-21-scscs0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4808%2C3100&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/asian-happy-boy-eating-hamburger-burger-539830786">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/australians-buy-more-dairy-and-meat-substitutes-2020-21#:%7E:text=The%20amount%20of%20dairy%20and,Bureau%20of%20Statistics%20(ABS)">As demand for alternative protein sources grows</a>, Australians are increasingly looking for options that are healthy, sustainable and ethically made. </p>
<p>At CSIRO, we have produced a “<a href="https://www.csiro.au/protein-roadmap">protein roadmap</a>” to guide investments in a diverse range of new products and ingredients. We believe plant-based patties, lab-made meat and insects are just some of the foods set to fill Australian fridges by 2030.</p>
<p>The roadmap sketches out the foundations for a future with greater choice for consumers, and better outcomes for Australian producers across all types of protein. </p>
<h2>Changing protein preferences</h2>
<p>Australia is one of the world’s largest per-capita <a href="https://www.mla.com.au/globalassets/mla-corporate/prices--markets/documents/trends--analysis/soti-report/2789-mla-state-of-industry-report-2021_d11_single.pdf">beef consumers</a>, but there has been a steady decline in consumption over the past two decades.</p>
<p>The most <a href="https://www.mla.com.au/marketing-beef-and-lamb/consumer-sentiment-research">common reason</a> for eating less red meat is cost, followed by concerns related to health, the environment, and animal welfare. </p>
<p>At the same time, meat consumption among the middle class in <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/cf68bf79-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/cf68bf79-en">countries such as China and Vietnam has been rising</a>.</p>
<p>This shift in demand is creating an opportunity for protein producers to expand and diversify.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ultra-processed-foods-are-trashing-our-health-and-the-planet-180115">Ultra-processed foods are trashing our health – and the planet</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Producing plant-based protein locally</h2>
<p>The plant protein industry is still small in Australia. However, it is <a href="https://www.foodfrontier.org/wp-content/uploads/dlm_uploads/2021/03/Food-Frontier-2020-State-of-the-Industry.pdf">ramping up rapidly</a>.</p>
<p>The total number of plant-based protein products on grocery shelves has doubled over the past year to more than 200. <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/australians-buy-more-dairy-and-meat-substitutes-2020-21#:%7E:text=The%20amount%20of%20dairy%20and,Bureau%20of%20Statistics%20(ABS)">Recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics</a> shows demand for these products has increased by about 30% in the past two years. </p>
<p>Plant-based food products are made by processing various plant ingredients (such as wholegrains, legumes, beans, nuts and oilseeds) into food products, including breads, pasta, and alternatives to meat and dairy. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A bird's eye view of a plant-based patty in one hand and a cup of legumes in the other hand." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457557/original/file-20220412-12-mny4zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457557/original/file-20220412-12-mny4zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457557/original/file-20220412-12-mny4zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457557/original/file-20220412-12-mny4zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457557/original/file-20220412-12-mny4zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457557/original/file-20220412-12-mny4zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457557/original/file-20220412-12-mny4zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Legumes are often used to create plant-based patties.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/mans-hands-holding-plant-based-non-1802315809">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Lupins, chickpeas and lentils can be turned into plant-based burgers, while protein powders can be made from faba or mung beans.</p>
<p>Most plant-based products available now are either imported or made in Australia using imported ingredients, so there is plenty of room for Australian producers to enter the industry. </p>
<h2>The story behind the steak</h2>
<p>Meat will continue to be a staple in many people’s diets for years to come. </p>
<p>When we do eat meat, Australian consumers are increasingly asking questions about where their meat came from. On this front, “digital integrity” systems can be a useful solution.</p>
<p>These systems track everything from the origin of ingredients, to nutrition, sustainable packaging, fair trade and organic certifications. They also keep a record of associated labour conditions, carbon footprint, water use, chemical use, animal welfare consideration, and impacts to biodiversity and air quality.</p>
<p>One example is made by Sydney-based firm NanoTag Technology: a unique micro-dot matrix pattern printed on the packaging of meat products which, when scanned with a pocket reader, <a href="https://www.nanotag.co/food">verifies</a> the authenticity of the product. Buyers can see the product’s pack date, batch number and factory of origin.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An array of beef cattle in a farm house." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457559/original/file-20220412-19-w3dpn8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457559/original/file-20220412-19-w3dpn8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457559/original/file-20220412-19-w3dpn8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457559/original/file-20220412-19-w3dpn8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457559/original/file-20220412-19-w3dpn8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457559/original/file-20220412-19-w3dpn8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457559/original/file-20220412-19-w3dpn8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We’re becoming more interested in the story behind the steak.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/beefs-standing-herd-barn-they-eating-1845608137">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Seafood is also an <a href="https://www.agrifutures.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/20-001.pdf">important source of healthy and low-fat protein</a>. Demand is growing for local, inexpensive white-flesh fish such as barramundi and Murray cod.</p>
<p>While Australia produces 11,000 tonnes of white-flesh fish annually, it also <a href="https://ecos.csiro.au/new-everyday-supermarket-fish/">imports almost ten times</a> this amount to help meet annual demand. </p>
<p>Responding to this demand, the Australian aquaculture industry has <a href="https://ecos.csiro.au/new-everyday-supermarket-fish/">ambitions to reach 50,000 tonnes of homegrown produce</a> by 2030.</p>
<h2>Fermented foods</h2>
<p><a href="https://ecos.csiro.au/whats-brewing-precision-fermentation/">Precision fermentation</a> is another technology for creating protein-rich products and ingredients – potentially worth A$2.2 billion by 2030.</p>
<p>Traditional fermentation involves using microorganisms (such as bacteria and yeast) to create food including yoghurt, bread or tempeh. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An array of fermented foods shot from above." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457564/original/file-20220412-14-orw4hr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457564/original/file-20220412-14-orw4hr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457564/original/file-20220412-14-orw4hr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457564/original/file-20220412-14-orw4hr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457564/original/file-20220412-14-orw4hr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457564/original/file-20220412-14-orw4hr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457564/original/file-20220412-14-orw4hr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fermentation can create nutritious plant-based milk, yogurts, tempeh and more.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/fermented-food-probiotics-kefir-kombucha-sauerkraut-1673466124">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In precision fermentation, you customise the microorganisms to create new products. The US-based <a href="https://theeverycompany.com/">Every Company</a>, uses customised microorganism strains to create a chicken-free substitute for egg white. Similarly, <a href="https://perfectday.com/">Perfect Day</a> has created a cow-free milk. </p>
<h2>Man made meats</h2>
<p>Still want to eat meat, but are concerned about animal welfare or environmental impacts? Cultivated or cell-based meat is biologically similar to the regular variety, but the animal cells are grown in a lab, not a farm. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A close up of lab grown meat production." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457566/original/file-20220412-30687-1qdbnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457566/original/file-20220412-30687-1qdbnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457566/original/file-20220412-30687-1qdbnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457566/original/file-20220412-30687-1qdbnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457566/original/file-20220412-30687-1qdbnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457566/original/file-20220412-30687-1qdbnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457566/original/file-20220412-30687-1qdbnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An array of companies are working towards biologically identical, lab-grown meat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/meat-sample-open-disposable-plastic-cell-1317402761">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Australian company <a href="https://www.thechainsaw.com/vow-foods-cell-based-meat-seed-funding-2021-1">Vow</a> is making pork and chicken, as well as kangaroo, alpaca and water buffalo meat using cells from animals. These products are not yet commercially available, though chef Neil Perry did <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/startupsmart/news/vow-food-neil-perry-lab-grown-meat/">use some of them to create a menu in 2020</a>.</p>
<h2>Edible insects</h2>
<p>Edible insects, such as crickets and mealworms, have been part of cuisines around the world for millennia, including Australian First Nations Peoples. </p>
<p>Insects have a <a href="https://research.csiro.au/edibleinsects/">high nutritional value</a>, are rich in protein, omega-3 fatty acids, iron, zinc, folic acid and vitamins B12, C and E.</p>
<p>Insect farming is also considered to have a low environmental footprint, and requires less land, water and energy. </p>
<p>Australian company <a href="https://circleharvest.com.au/">Circle Harvest</a> sells a range of edible insect products including pastas and chocolate brownie mixes enriched with cricket powder.</p>
<p>Protein is vital to our health. However, until now its production has placed strain on the health of most other ecosystems. CSIRO’s protein roadmap offers not only sustainability, but also more choice for consumers and opportunities for Australian producers.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/emerging-tech-in-the-food-transport-and-energy-sector-can-help-counter-the-effects-of-climate-change-180126">Emerging tech in the food, transport and energy sector can help counter the effects of climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180859/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine Wynn works for the CSIRO, which receives funding from the Australian Government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Colgrave is affiliated with both CSIRO, which receives funding from the Australian Government; and Edith Cowan University wherein she receives grant funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>
A new ‘protein roadmap’ produced by CSIRO reveals foods set to fill fridges by 2030 as health, environmental and ethical concerns push consumers away from meat.
Katherine Wynn, Lead Economist, CSIRO Futures, CSIRO
Michelle Colgrave, Professor of Food and Agricultural Proteomics, CSIRO
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/172691
2021-11-30T05:00:12Z
2021-11-30T05:00:12Z
What’s the secret to making sure AI doesn’t steal your job? Work with it, not against it
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434593/original/file-20211130-22-1wkq7gf.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=90%2C9%2C5916%2C3998&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Whether it’s athletes on a sporting field or celebrities in the jungle, nothing holds our attention like the drama of vying for a single prize. And when it comes to the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI), some of the most captivating moments have also been delivered in nailbiting finishes.</p>
<p>In 1997, <a href="https://www.ibm.com/ibm/history/ibm100/us/en/icons/deepblue/">IBM’s Deep Blue</a> chess computer was pitted against grandmaster and reigning world champion Garry Kasparov, having lost to him the previous year.</p>
<p>But this time, the AI won. The popular Chinese game Go was next, in 2016, and again there was a collective intake of breath when Google’s AI <a href="https://www.wired.com/2016/03/googles-ai-wins-fifth-final-game-go-genius-lee-sedol/">was victorious</a>. These competitions elegantly illustrate what is unique about AI: we can program it to do things we can’t do ourselves, such as beat a world champion.</p>
<p>But what if this framing obscures something vital – that human and artificial intelligence are not the same? AI can quickly process vast amounts of data and be trained to execute specific tasks; human intelligence is significantly more creative and adaptive.</p>
<p>The most interesting question is not who will win, but what can people and AI achieve together? Combining both forms of intelligence can provide a better outcome than either can achieve alone. </p>
<p>This is called collaborative intelligence. And this is the premise of CSIRO’s new A$12 million Collaborative Intelligence (CINTEL) Future Science Platform, which we are leading. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/work-is-a-fundamental-part-of-being-human-robots-wont-stop-us-doing-it-127925">Work is a fundamental part of being human. Robots won't stop us doing it</a>
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<h2>Checkmate mates</h2>
<p>While chess has been used to illustrate AI-human competition, it also provides an example of collaborative intelligence. IBM’s Deep Blue beat the world champion, but did not render humans obsolete. Human chess players collaborating with AI have proven superior to both the best AI systems and human players. </p>
<p>And while such “freestyle” chess requires both excellent human skill and AI technology, the best results don’t come from simply combining the best AI with the best grandmaster. The process through which they collaborate is crucial.</p>
<p>So for many problems – particularly those that involve complex, variable and hard-to-define contexts – we’re likely to get better results if we design AI systems explicitly to <a href="https://www.kasparov.com/deep-thinking-ai/">work with</a> human partners, and give humans the skills to interpret AI systems. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434610/original/file-20211130-25-fzkwep.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Human with tablet oversees automated machines working in a factory" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434610/original/file-20211130-25-fzkwep.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434610/original/file-20211130-25-fzkwep.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=261&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434610/original/file-20211130-25-fzkwep.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=261&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434610/original/file-20211130-25-fzkwep.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=261&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434610/original/file-20211130-25-fzkwep.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434610/original/file-20211130-25-fzkwep.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434610/original/file-20211130-25-fzkwep.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Machines can do repetitive and dangerous work, but only in a set environment. They can’t transfer their skills as humans can.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>A simple example of how machines and people are already working together is found in the safety features of modern cars. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lane_departure_warning_system">Lane keep assist</a> technology uses cameras to monitor lane markings and will adjust the steering if the car appears to be drifting out of its lane. </p>
<p>However, if it senses the driver is actively steering away, it will desist so the human remains in charge (and the AI continues to assist in the new lane). This combines the strengths of a computer, such as limitless concentration, with those of the human, such as knowing how to respond to unpredictable events. </p>
<p>There is potential to apply similar approaches to a range of other challenging problems. In cybersecurity settings, humans and computers could work together to identify which of the many threats from cybercriminals are the most urgent. </p>
<p>Similarly, in biodiversity science, collaborative intelligence can be used to make sense of massive numbers of specimens housed in biological collections.</p>
<h2>Laying the foundations</h2>
<p>We know enough about collaborative intelligence to say it has massive potential, but it’s a new field of research – and there are more questions than answers.</p>
<p>Through CSIRO’s CINTEL program we will explore how people and machines work and learn together, and how this way of collaborating can improve human work.
Specifically, we will address four foundations of collaborative intelligence:</p>
<ol>
<li><p><strong>collaborative workflows and processes</strong>. Collaborative intelligence requires rethinking workflow and processes, to ensure humans and machines complement each other. We’ll also explore how it might help people develop new skills that might be useful across areas of the workforce </p></li>
<li><p><strong>situation awareness and understanding intent</strong>. Working towards the same goals and ensuring humans understand the current progress of a task</p></li>
<li><p><strong>trust</strong>. Collaborative intelligence systems will not work without people trusting the machines. We must understand what trust means in different contexts, and how to establish and maintain trust</p></li>
<li><p><strong>communication</strong>. The better the communication between humans and the machine, the better the collaboration. How do we ensure both understand each other?</p></li>
</ol>
<h2>Robots reimagined</h2>
<p>One of our projects will involve working with the <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/news/news-releases/2021/australia-claims-historic-top-two-spot-in-the-robot-olympics">CSIRO-based</a> robotics and autonomous systems team to develop richer human-robot collaboration. Collaborative intelligence will enable humans and robots to respond to changes in real time and make decisions together.</p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://www.flir.com/browse/government-defense/unmanned-ground-systems/">robots</a> are often used to explore environments that might be dangerous for humans, such as in rescue missions. In June, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/06/30/throwable-robot-florida-condo-collapse/">robots were sent</a> to help in search and rescue operations, after a 12-storey condo <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-did-the-miami-apartment-building-collapse-and-are-others-in-danger-163425">building collapsed in Surfside</a>, Florida. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/an-expert-on-search-and-rescue-robots-explains-the-technologies-used-in-disasters-like-the-florida-condo-collapse-163564">An expert on search and rescue robots explains the technologies used in disasters like the Florida condo collapse</a>
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<p>Often, these missions are ill-defined, and humans must use their own knowledge and skills (such as reasoning, intuition, adaptation and experience) to identify what the robots should be doing. While developing a true human-robot team may initially be difficult, it’s likely to be more effective in the long term for complex missions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172691/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cecile Paris receives funding from various departments of the Australian Government. She is an Honorary Professor at Macquarie University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Reeson has received funding from various departments of the Australian Government and is involved in research collaborations with nbn co and TAFE Queensland.</span></em></p>
The best AI chess computer outperforms the best human chess players. Yet the most supreme chess play on Earth comes from a human, helped by AI.
Cecile Paris, Chief Research Scientist, Knowledge Discovery & Management, CSIRO
Andrew Reeson, Economist, Data61, CSIRO
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/172506
2021-11-26T10:01:51Z
2021-11-26T10:01:51Z
Australia’s Black Summer of fire was not normal – and we can prove it
<p>The Black Summer forest fires of 2019–2020 burned more than 24 million hectares, directly causing 33 deaths and almost <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-26/bushfire-royal-commission-hearings-smoke-killed-445-people/12286094">450 more</a> from smoke inhalation. </p>
<p>But were these fires unprecedented? You might remember sceptics <a href="https://theconversation.com/some-say-weve-seen-bushfires-worse-than-this-before-but-theyre-ignoring-a-few-key-facts-129391">questioning the idea</a> that the Black Summer fires really were worse than conflagrations like the 1939 Black Friday fires in Victoria. </p>
<p>We can now confidently say that these fires were far from normal. Our new analysis of Australian forest fire trends just published in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27225-4">Nature Communications</a> confirms for the first time the Black Summer fires are part of a clear trend of worsening fire weather and ever-larger forest areas burned by fires. </p>
<h2>What did we find?</h2>
<p>Our study found that the annual area burned by fire across Australia’s forests has been increasing by about 48,000 ha per year over the last three decades. After five years, that would be roughly the size of the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/latestproducts/415C79FDC0BB111ECA2573A1007B3070?opendocument">entire</a> Australian Capital Territory (235,000 hectares). </p>
<p>We found three out of four extreme forest fire years since states started keeping records 90 years ago have occurred since 2002. </p>
<p>And we found that the fire season is growing, moving out of spring and summer into autumn and winter. </p>
<p>These trends are almost entirely due to Australia’s increasingly severe fire weather and are consistent with predicted human-induced climate change. </p>
<p>Our study is based on satellite and ground-based estimates of burnt forest area, and trends of nine wildfire risk factors and indices that relate to characteristics of fuel loads, fire weather, extreme fire behaviour, and ignition. </p>
<p>We have focused here only on the most dangerous forest fires, not the fires affecting Australia’s savanna across the tropical north.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434088/original/file-20211126-13-2dcq3v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Figure showing increasing area burned by forest fires in Australia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434088/original/file-20211126-13-2dcq3v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434088/original/file-20211126-13-2dcq3v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434088/original/file-20211126-13-2dcq3v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434088/original/file-20211126-13-2dcq3v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434088/original/file-20211126-13-2dcq3v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434088/original/file-20211126-13-2dcq3v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434088/original/file-20211126-13-2dcq3v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Burnt area of forest by year. Data derived from satellite data (NOAA-AVHRR burned area)</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<h2>Fire burns much more land than 25 years ago</h2>
<p>Before the 1990s, Australia’s forest fires were infrequent, though damaging. A given area would burn at an interval between 20 to over 100 years. </p>
<p>The exception were rare summers which would see severe and extensive fires, such as 1939. Overall, only a small fraction of the total forest area burned in any year. </p>
<p>This pattern of fire behaviour no longer exists. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434093/original/file-20211126-17-bhkkea.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of Australia showing shortening years between forest fires" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434093/original/file-20211126-17-bhkkea.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434093/original/file-20211126-17-bhkkea.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434093/original/file-20211126-17-bhkkea.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434093/original/file-20211126-17-bhkkea.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434093/original/file-20211126-17-bhkkea.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434093/original/file-20211126-17-bhkkea.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434093/original/file-20211126-17-bhkkea.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Years since the last forest fire (decadal mean). Data derived from satellite data (NASA-MODIS burned area) and ground/air-based data from states and territories.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>Over the last 30 years, the areas affected by fire have grown enormously. </p>
<p>If we compare the satellite records from 1988–2001 to the period from 2002–2018, the annual average fire area has shot up by 350%. </p>
<p>If we include the 2019–20 Black Summer fires, that figure soars to 800% – an enormous leap. </p>
<p>We are seeing fires growing the most in areas once less likely to be affected by fire, such as cool wet Tasmanian forests unaccustomed to large fires as well as the warmest forests in Queensland previously kept safe from fire by rainfall and a humid microclimate. This includes ancient Gondwanan rainforests not adapted for fire. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-staggering-1-8-million-hectares-burned-in-high-severity-fires-during-australias-black-summer-157883">A staggering 1.8 million hectares burned in 'high-severity' fires during Australia's Black Summer</a>
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<h2>More extreme fire years and longer fire seasons</h2>
<p>Before 2002, there was just one megafire year in the 90 years Australian states have been keeping records – and that was 1939. </p>
<p>Since 2001, there have been three megafire years, defined as a year in which more than one million hectares burn. </p>
<p>Our fire seasons are also getting longer. Spring and summer used to be the time most forest fires would start. That’s no longer guaranteed. </p>
<p>Since 2001 winter fires have soared five-fold compared to 1988–2001 and autumn fires three-fold. </p>
<p>Overall, fires in the cooler months of March to August are growing exponentially at 14% a year. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434092/original/file-20211126-13-1j4jdra.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Figure showing rising burned areas in autumn and winter in Australia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434092/original/file-20211126-13-1j4jdra.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434092/original/file-20211126-13-1j4jdra.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434092/original/file-20211126-13-1j4jdra.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434092/original/file-20211126-13-1j4jdra.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434092/original/file-20211126-13-1j4jdra.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434092/original/file-20211126-13-1j4jdra.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434092/original/file-20211126-13-1j4jdra.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trends in autumn and winter burned areas over time. Data derived from satellite data (NOAA-AVHRR and NASA-MODIS burned area)</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>What’s driving these changes?</h2>
<p>Imagine a forest fire starts from a lightning strike in remote bushland. What are the factors which would make it grow, spread and intensify? </p>
<p>A fire will get larger and more dangerous if it has access to more fuel (dry grass, fallen limbs and bark), and if the fire starts when the weather is hotter, drier and windier. Topography also plays a role, with fire able to move much faster uphill. </p>
<p>To get a sense of the overall risk of forest fire, temperature, humidity, windspeed and soil moisture are combined into a single figure, the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI). </p>
<p>As you might expect, this index has been steadily worsening over the past 40 years. The number of very high fire danger days in forest zones has been increasing by 1.6 days per decade. </p>
<p>So what does this mean for fire behaviour and spread?</p>
<p>In what we believe is a first, we have used 32 years of fire index data across Australia’s forest zones and compared the number of very high or severe fire danger days with areas subsequently burnt by fire. </p>
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<p>
<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/humans-see-just-4-7km-into-the-distance-so-how-can-we-truly-understand-what-the-bushfires-destroyed-128539">Humans see just 4.7km into the distance. So how can we truly understand what the bushfires destroyed?</a>
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<p>We found a clear link, with a 300 to 500% increase in burnt area for every extra day of severe fire danger, and a 21% increase in burnt area for every extra day of very high fire danger. </p>
<p>Could fuel loads or prescribed burning be to blame? No. We looked for trends in these factors, and found nothing to explain the rise in burnt areas. </p>
<p>The main driver for the growing areas burnt by fire is Australia’s increasingly severe fire weather, accounting for 75% of the variation observed in the total annual area of forest fires. This is consistent with <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-46362-x">predictions from climate change scenarios</a> that severe fire weather conditions will intensify due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<p>Other fire weather risks are also growing. We’re seeing more higher atmospheric conditions which can lead to the formation of fire-generated thunderstorms (known as pyrocumulonimbus clouds).</p>
<p>These thunderstorms emerging out of fire plumes can spread burning embers further and whip up more dangerous winds for unpredictable fire behaviour on the ground, as well as generate lightning in the fire plume that can ignite new fires far ahead of the fire front. </p>
<p>Dry lightning is the primary natural cause of fire ignitions. Here too, the trends are worsening in southeast Australia. We are now seeing 50% more dry lightning in forest areas in recent decades (2000–2016) compared to the previous two (1980–1999).</p>
<p>Under most <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/fire-weather-centre/bushfire-weather/index.shtml">climate change scenarios</a>, fire weather is predicted to keep on worsening. </p>
<h2>Can we predict our next megafire?</h2>
<p>So could we have predicted how bad and how widespread the Black Summer fires would have been, if we had examined fire danger index forecasts in mid-2019? </p>
<p>In short, yes. </p>
<p>The huge amount of bush that burned is entirely consistent with the 34 days of very high forest fire danger across the forest zones that summer. That’s in line with the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/ES20001">long-range bushfire weather forecasts</a> provided to fire agencies earlier in 2019. </p>
<p>This means that in future years, we will be able to broadly predict the area likely to burn each fire season by examining fire index forecasts. </p>
<p>We can also safely – and sadly – predict that more and more of Australia will burn in years to come, with increasing numbers of megafire years. </p>
<p>While many factors contribute to <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/102/6/BAMS-D-20-0112.1.xml">catastrophic fire events</a>, our Black Summer was not an aberration. </p>
<p>Rather, it was the continuation of fire trends beginning more than two decades ago. It is now clear that human-induced climate change is creating ever more dangerous conditions for fires in Australia. </p>
<p>We need to be ready for more Black Summers – and worse.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172506/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Dowdy receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program (NESP) Climate Systems Hub.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pep Canadell receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program - Climate Systems Hub </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Garry Cook, Jürgen Knauer, Mick Meyer, and Peter Briggs do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Forest fires in Australia are burning more land across more of the year than ever before, as climate-linked fire weather worsens.
Garry Cook, Honorary Fellow, CSIRO
Andrew Dowdy, Principal Research Scientist, Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Jürgen Knauer, Research fellow, CSIRO
Mick Meyer, Post Retirement Fellow, CSIRO
Pep Canadell, Chief research scientist, Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere; and Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIRO
Peter Briggs, Scientific Programmer and Data Analyst, CSIRO
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/172522
2021-11-24T10:14:56Z
2021-11-24T10:14:56Z
Morrison says universities should shift focus from ‘publish or perish’ towards commercialising research
<p>The Morrison government is pushing for universities to shift from “publish or perish” incentives to focus on commercialising their research, industry needs and “national priorities”.</p>
<p>Announcing $242.7 million for a yet-to-be-selected small group of “trailblazer” universities, the government wants to encourage those that are “early adopters of intellectual property, industrial relations and skills practices to lift collaboration and commercialisation outcomes”.</p>
<p>Four universities, including one regional institution, will be funded under the program. They will work with industry partners to drive commercialisation across the government’s six manufacturing priorities.</p>
<p>These priorities are resources technology and critical minerals processing; food and beverage manufacturing; medical products; recycling and clean energy; defence, and space.</p>
<p>Addressing the Business Council of Australia on Wednesday, Morrison reinforced the government’s emphasis on the need for universities to be practically and commercially oriented.</p>
<p>“Our government wants to make sure that our researchers and universities that house them are rewarded for their discoveries,” he said.</p>
<p>“Too often this research is just left on the shelf and not taken further down the pipeline towards production here in Australia. Too often, Australian businesses are missing out on those opportunities to commercialise Australian research and Australian universities and researchers are missing out on opportunities to be rewarded for their work.”</p>
<p>Morrison highlighted what he saw as barriers to greater commercialisation.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/morrisons-opening-of-the-door-to-international-students-leaves-many-in-the-sector-blindsided-and-scrambling-to-catch-up-172382">Morrison's opening of the door to international students leaves many in the sector blindsided and scrambling to catch up</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>“Researchers are currently incentivised to publish and have their work cited as often as possible. And this ‘publish or perish’ mindset is useful for getting tenure, but does little to spur innovation or create start-ups.</p>
<p>"Universities need to shift incentives towards high value commercial opportunities, to industry needs and national priorities. We want to see universities create incentives for researchers to collaborate with industry to drive investment, co-investment, and product development.”</p>
<p>A competitive process will select four universities. Each will receive $50 million over four years to build commercialisation capacity, and will also receive CSIRO specialist support.</p>
<p>Applications from universities and industry partners will be judged against three criteria:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Commercialisation readiness</p></li>
<li><p>Research capability to support a national manufacturing priority </p></li>
<li><p>“Industry alignment”, including collaborative partnerships with industry and co-funding from business partners, greater workforce mobility between businesses and universities, and offering courses in priority areas that are endorsed by industry. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>“Business has a role to play,” Morrison said. “Australian businesses need to recognise the value of Australian research and invest in the ideas that will create products and grow our economy.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172522/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
The Morrison government is pushing for universities to shift focus to commercialising their research, announcing $242.7 million for a yet-to-be-selected small group of “trailblazer” universities
Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/172300
2021-11-22T19:08:04Z
2021-11-22T19:08:04Z
Every dollar invested in research and development creates $3.50 in benefits for Australia, says new CSIRO analysis
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433336/original/file-20211123-25-t1educ.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C6%2C4031%2C2981&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">IMG</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Each dollar invested in research and development (R&D) would earn an average of A$3.50 in economy-wide benefits for Australia, according to evidence compiled in a <a href="https://www.csiro.au/work-with-us/services/consultancy-strategic-advice-services/CSIRO-futures/Futures-reports/Quantifying-Australias-returns-to-innovation">new report from CSIRO</a>.</p>
<p>Many Australians know research and development drives economic growth and improves our well-being and prosperity. However, few could describe the size of the relationship between Australia’s research and development spending and economic growth, or compare this to performance on other typical investment returns. </p>
<p>Examples of future industries that could be unlocked by research and development in Australia include the quantum technology and hydrogen industries. Examples of emerging technologies that could change the way Australians work and live include artificial intelligence and robotics.</p>
<p>This is significant, given <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/technology-and-innovation/research-and-experimental-development-businesses-australia/latest-release">recent figures</a> from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show business spending on research and development as a proportion of GDP is just <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/science-and-technology/main-science-and-technology-indicators/volume-2021/issue-1_eea67efc-en">half the OECD average</a>, and the lowest it has been since 2003. </p>
<p>We hope our analysis will raise awareness of the value of this kind of spending, and its importance for Australia’s economic recovery and long-term resilience. Investing in innovation now is crucial for the future. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433032/original/file-20211122-23-2bcc29.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Quantifying Australia's returns on innovation spending" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433032/original/file-20211122-23-2bcc29.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433032/original/file-20211122-23-2bcc29.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433032/original/file-20211122-23-2bcc29.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433032/original/file-20211122-23-2bcc29.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433032/original/file-20211122-23-2bcc29.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433032/original/file-20211122-23-2bcc29.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433032/original/file-20211122-23-2bcc29.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO</span></span>
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<p>In consultation with government and academic stakeholders, our team at <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/work-with-us/services/consultancy-strategic-advice-services/csiro-futures">CSIRO Futures</a>, the strategic and economic advisory arm of Australia’s national science agency, used a new yet simple economic approach to quantify the return on investment in overall research and development spending for Australia. </p>
<p>By adapting a <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w27863">method</a> originally developed in the US, we calculated return on investment by defining the relationship between domestic gross spending on research and development, and the growth in per capita gross domestic product (GDP) that follows as a result. This method encompasses both successful and unsuccessful research and development investments, and quantifies only monetary benefits (excluding non-monetary social and environmental benefits).</p>
<p>Our approach also accounts for delays between research and development investments and payoffs, and for the capital costs of integrating research and development into the economy. For example, an innovation of new computer software must be built into existing computer systems, and might therefore take a decade before its use becomes widespread. </p>
<p>Overall, we calculate that $1 of research and development investment creates an average of $3.50 in economy-wide benefits in today’s dollars, and a 10% average annual return for Australia. </p>
<p>By removing the considerations of delays and capital costs, we can also calculate an upper boundary on our estimate – that is, the maximum theoretical return on investment barring any hurdles along the way. </p>
<p>This unadjusted result, which does not account for the additional time and costs associated with integrating research and development into the economy, is estimated as creating $20.80 in economy-wide benefits, and a 104% average annual return for every dollar spent on research and development in Australia.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433034/original/file-20211122-21-2wlpap.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Table of forecasted returns on investment" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433034/original/file-20211122-21-2wlpap.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433034/original/file-20211122-21-2wlpap.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433034/original/file-20211122-21-2wlpap.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433034/original/file-20211122-21-2wlpap.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433034/original/file-20211122-21-2wlpap.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433034/original/file-20211122-21-2wlpap.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433034/original/file-20211122-21-2wlpap.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even with our conservative estimate of $3.50 return on the dollar, the expected benefits of investing in innovation are high compared with many other types of investments. For example, Australia’s ten-year government bond returns have historically averaged <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2019/pdf/rdp2019-04.pdf">around 7% per year</a>. Private investments in the ASX200 stock index have typically yielded <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-asx-200/#overview">around 10% annually</a>. </p>
<p>Perhaps even more significantly, even our conservative estimate of $3.50 return on investment suggests research and development has a cost/benefit ratio well in excess of $1 to $1. This means there is a strong economic case for this kind of spending. </p>
<p>But research and development investment is risky, right? This may be much less of a problem at a national level. While cost or time overruns are never favourable for any investment, building this uncertainty into our findings shows research and development investment remains economically viable even if this happens. </p>
<p>Results from sensitivity analysis demonstrate that if the costs of research and development spending or delays of payoffs increase by 20%, the most conservative (combined adjustment) results only fall to $3.30 return on investment, with annual yields of 9.5% (at lowest). These are still strong returns.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-study-confirms-what-scientists-already-know-basic-research-is-under-valued-110778">New study confirms what scientists already know: basic research is under-valued</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Our findings imply that so far, Australian innovation investments - whether they be in new products and services or in creating new industries - have been well worthwhile, and that increasing future investment could capture substantial economy-wide returns. </p>
<p>As our estimates only capture the economic benefits of innovation, actual returns are likely to be much higher when also considering the broader social and environmental benefits of Australian research and development. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/three-ways-to-reform-research-that-wont-break-the-budget-62344">Three ways to reform research that won’t break the budget</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172300/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine Wynn works for the CSIRO, which receives funding from the Australian Government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jasmine Cohen works for the CSIRO, which receives funding from the Australian Government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mingji Liu works for the CSIRO, which receives funding from the Australian Government.</span></em></p>
An analysis by CSIRO’s strategic and economic advisory arm suggests spending on research and development can earn annual yields of 10%, even if there are delays or cost overruns.
Katherine Wynn, Lead Economist, CSIRO Futures, CSIRO
Jasmine Cohen, Economic Consultant, CSIRO Futures, CSIRO
Mingji Liu, Senior Economic Consultant, CSIRO
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/170753
2021-10-29T04:46:36Z
2021-10-29T04:46:36Z
60 years after it first gazed at the skies, the Parkes dish is still making breakthroughs
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429275/original/file-20211029-15-198o6ab.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C671%2C6479%2C5136&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The CSIRO’s 64-metre Parkes Radio Telescope was commissioned on October 31 1961. At the time it was the most advanced radio telescope in the world, incorporating many innovative features that have since become standard in all large-dish antennas. </p>
<p>Through its early discoveries it quickly became the leading instrument of its kind. Today, 60 years later, it is still arguably the finest single-dish radio telescope in the world. It is still performing world-class science and making discoveries that shape our understanding of the Universe.</p>
<p>The telescope’s origins date back to wartime radar research by the Radiophysics Laboratory, part of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), the forerunner of the CSIRO. On the Sydney clifftops at Dover Heights, the laboratory developed radar for use in the Pacific theatre. When the second world war ended, the technology was redirected into peaceful applications, including studying radio waves from the Sun and beyond.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Researchers use the antenna at Dover Heights" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429271/original/file-20211029-18-gtm4qf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429271/original/file-20211029-18-gtm4qf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429271/original/file-20211029-18-gtm4qf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429271/original/file-20211029-18-gtm4qf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429271/original/file-20211029-18-gtm4qf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429271/original/file-20211029-18-gtm4qf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429271/original/file-20211029-18-gtm4qf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Early antennas were much simpler, not to mention smaller.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 1946, British physicist Edward “Taffy” Bowen was appointed chief of the Radiophysics Laboratory. He had been one of the brilliant engineers, dubbed “boffins”, who developed radar as part of Britain’s secret prewar military research. The Radiophysics Laboratory had a dedicated radio astronomy group, led by the brilliant Joseph (Joe) Pawsey. Many of the group’s members went on to become leaders in the nascent field of radio astronomy, including Bernie Mills, Chris Christiansen, Paul Wild, Ruby Payne-Scott (the first female radio astronomer), and John Bolton.</p>
<p>While the group’s initial research focused on radio waves from the Sun, Bolton’s attention soon shifted to identifying other sources from farther afield. By the early 1950s, the Dover Heights radar dishes had discovered more than 100 sources of radio emissions from the Milky Way and beyond, including the signals from supernova explosions. These observations established the Radiophysics Laboratory as a world-leading centre of radio astronomy.</p>
<p>By 1954, the technology at Dover Heights was outdated and obsolete, prompting Bowen to initiate the next step for Australian radio astronomy: a state-of-the-art new radio telescope.</p>
<p>He decided the most versatile option was to build a large, fully steerable dish antenna. The eventual price tag was A$1.4 million (A$25.6 million in today’s terms) – far beyond CSIRO’s budget at the time.</p>
<p>The Menzies government agreed to fund the project, provided at least 50% of the money came from the private sector. Using his wartime contacts, Bowen secured A$250,000 each from the Carnegie Corporation and Rockefeller Foundation, plus a range of private Australian donations.</p>
<p>British firm Freeman Fox and Partners produced the detailed design, incorporating suggestions from legendary engineer Barnes Wallis, of “dambusters” fame. Based on the available budget and desired functionality, a diameter of 64 metres was agreed for the dish.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429264/original/file-20211029-23-nnz6hy.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="1955 design by Barnes Wallis" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429264/original/file-20211029-23-nnz6hy.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429264/original/file-20211029-23-nnz6hy.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=662&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429264/original/file-20211029-23-nnz6hy.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=662&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429264/original/file-20211029-23-nnz6hy.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=662&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429264/original/file-20211029-23-nnz6hy.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=832&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429264/original/file-20211029-23-nnz6hy.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=832&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429264/original/file-20211029-23-nnz6hy.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=832&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">1955 design notes by Barnes Wallis.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The chosen site was near the town of Parkes, about 350km west of Sydney. This location had favourable weather conditions and was free of local radio interference. The local council also enthusiastically offered to cover the cost of some of the earthworks.</p>
<p>In 2020, the local Wiradjuri people <a href="https://blog.csiro.au/parkes-telescope-indigenous-name/">named the telescope Murriyang</a>, a traditional name meaning “Skyworld”.</p>
<p>The telescope’s construction began in September 1959 and was completed just two years later. On October 31 1961, the Governor-General William Sidney, Viscount De l'Isle, officially opened the telescope in a ceremony attended by 500 guests.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The Parkes dish's opening ceremony" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429278/original/file-20211029-26-91kgrk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429278/original/file-20211029-26-91kgrk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429278/original/file-20211029-26-91kgrk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429278/original/file-20211029-26-91kgrk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429278/original/file-20211029-26-91kgrk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=748&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429278/original/file-20211029-26-91kgrk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=748&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429278/original/file-20211029-26-91kgrk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=748&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Governor-General (centre) greets guests at the telescope’s 1961 opening ceremony.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Decades of discovery</h2>
<p>John Bolton was appointed the founding director of the telescope. Under his dynamic, decade-long tenure, astronomers made a string of significant discoveries that established the dish as the premier scientific instrument in Australia. </p>
<p>Astronomers revealed the immense magnetic field of our Milky Way galaxy. A few months later, the telescope detected quasars, the most distant known objects in the Universe – a discovery that increased the size of the known Universe tenfold. To cap off a memorable first year, Parkes tracked the very first interplanetary space mission, Mariner 2, when it flew past Venus in December 1962.</p>
<p>In the 1970s, researchers discovered and mapped the immense molecular clouds interspersed through our galaxy. The study of pulsars – rotating stars that emit beams of radio waves, rather like a lighthouse – became a major field of research. Parkes has discovered more pulsars than all other radio observatories combined, including the only known double pulsar system, spotted in 2003. </p>
<p>In the 1990s, the distribution of galaxies was mapped to a distance of 300 million light years, revealing the complex structure of the Universe. More recently, Parkes discovered the first Fast Radio Burst – a short, intense <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-brief-history-what-we-know-so-far-about-fast-radio-bursts-across-the-universe-154381">blast of radio waves</a> created by an as-yet unknown process. The telescope has also been involved in the Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence (SETI), including the ten-year <a href="https://breakthroughinitiatives.org/initiative/1">Breakthrough Listen project</a>, which began in 2016.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-brief-history-what-we-know-so-far-about-fast-radio-bursts-across-the-universe-154381">A brief history: what we know so far about fast radio bursts across the universe</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>To the public, the telescope is perhaps best known for its space tracking, especially its role in the Apollo lunar missions. But it has also supported other significant missions such as NASA’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-still-listening-to-voyager-2-as-nasa-confirms-the-probe-is-now-in-interstellar-space-108507">Voyager 2</a>, which flew past Uranus and Neptune in the 1980s and crossed into interstellar space in 2018. In 1986, Parkes was the prime tracking station for the European Giotto mission to Halley’s Comet. And next year, Parkes will track some of the first commercial lunar landers.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-still-listening-to-voyager-2-as-nasa-confirms-the-probe-is-now-in-interstellar-space-108507">Australia is still listening to Voyager 2 as NASA confirms the probe is now in interstellar space</a>
</strong>
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</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Parkes dish with the Moon in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429268/original/file-20211029-19-1e2zq5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429268/original/file-20211029-19-1e2zq5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429268/original/file-20211029-19-1e2zq5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429268/original/file-20211029-19-1e2zq5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429268/original/file-20211029-19-1e2zq5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=941&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429268/original/file-20211029-19-1e2zq5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=941&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429268/original/file-20211029-19-1e2zq5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=941&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Parkes tracking the Apollo Moon mission in 1969.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Originally intended to operate for 20 years, the telscope’s longevity is a result of constant upgrades. Recent improvements include a new ultra-wideband receiver that can scan a huge range of radio frequencies, and CSIRO-developed “phased array feeds” (PAFs) that allow the telescope to observe up to 36 points in the sky at once. Work is now under way on a cryogenically cooled PAF that, when installed in 2022, will double this number. With these upgrades in place, a single receiver can be used to deliver more than 90% of current Parkes operations.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Construction workers building the dish" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429273/original/file-20211029-25-1ocnr6f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429273/original/file-20211029-25-1ocnr6f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429273/original/file-20211029-25-1ocnr6f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429273/original/file-20211029-25-1ocnr6f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429273/original/file-20211029-25-1ocnr6f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429273/original/file-20211029-25-1ocnr6f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429273/original/file-20211029-25-1ocnr6f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Construction took just two years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s hard to say how long the Parkes dish will continue to work. It depends on future upgrades and whether the telescope’s structure remains in good working order. But astronomers will always have a need for a large single-dish antenna.</p>
<p>Parkes has maintained its world-leading position in radio astronomy by constantly adapting to meet new requirements. Today it stands as an icon of Australian science and achievement. Sixty years after it first trained its eye on the sky, the future still looks bright at Parkes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170753/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Sarkissian does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
After six decades during which it tracked lunar missions, spotted distant pulsars and quasars, and even expanded our concept of the size of the Universe, the Parkes telescope is still going strong.
John Sarkissian, Operations Scientist, CSIRO
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/164855
2021-07-21T20:11:21Z
2021-07-21T20:11:21Z
We’ve discovered an undersea volcano near Christmas Island that looks like the Eye of Sauron
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412372/original/file-20210721-19-iqz980.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=27%2C27%2C4043%2C3124&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Phil Vandenbossche & Nelson Kuna/CSIRO</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Looking like the <a href="https://www.thetolkienforum.com/wiki/Image:eye-of-sauron-by-alex-ortiz">Eye of Sauron</a> from the Lord of the Rings Trilogy, an ancient undersea volcano was slowly revealed by multibeam sonar 3,100 metres below our vessel, 280 kilometres southeast of Christmas Island. This was on day 12 of our <a href="https://mnf.csiro.au/en/Voyages/IN2021_V04">voyage of exploration</a> to Australia’s Indian Ocean Territories, aboard CSIRO’s dedicated ocean research vessel, the <a href="https://mnf.csiro.au/en/RV-Investigator">RV Investigator</a>.</p>
<p>Previously unknown and unimagined, this volcano emerged from our screens as a giant oval-shaped depression called a caldera, 6.2km by 4.8km across. It is surrounded by a 300m-high rim (resembling Sauron’s eyelids), and has a 300 m high cone-shaped peak at its the centre (the “pupil”).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412368/original/file-20210721-19-1c5whs2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Sonar sea bed image" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412368/original/file-20210721-19-1c5whs2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412368/original/file-20210721-19-1c5whs2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=272&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412368/original/file-20210721-19-1c5whs2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=272&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412368/original/file-20210721-19-1c5whs2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=272&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412368/original/file-20210721-19-1c5whs2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412368/original/file-20210721-19-1c5whs2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412368/original/file-20210721-19-1c5whs2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sonar image of the ‘Eye of Sauron’ volcano and nearby seamounts on the sea bed south-west of Christmas Island.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Phil Vandenbossche & Nelson Kuna/CSIRO</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A caldera is formed when a volcano collapses. The molten magma at the base of the volcano shifts upwards, leaving empty chambers. The thin solid crust on the surface of the dome then collapses, creating a large crater-like structure. Often, a small new peak then begins to form in the centre as the volcano continues spewing magma.</p>
<p>One well-known caldera is the one at <a href="https://www.livescience.com/28186-krakatoa.html">Krakatoa</a> in Indonesia, which exploded in 1883, killing tens of thousands of people and leaving only bits of the mountain rim visible above the waves. By 1927, a small volcano, Anak Krakatoa (“child of Krakatoa”), had grown in its centre. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/krakatoa-is-still-active-and-we-are-not-ready-for-the-tsunamis-another-eruption-would-generate-147250">Krakatoa is still active, and we are not ready for the tsunamis another eruption would generate</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In contrast, we may not even be aware of volcanic eruptions when they happen deep under the ocean. One of the few tell-tale signs is the presence of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-06-03/pumice-stone-raft-transporting-marine-life/12278124">rafts of light pumice stone</a> floating on the sea surface after being blown out of a submarine volcano. Eventually, this pumice stone becomes waterlogged and sinks to the ocean floor.</p>
<p>Our volcanic “eye” was not alone. Further mapping to the south revealed a smaller sea mountain covered in numerous volcanic cones, and further still to the south was a larger, flat-topped seamount. Following our Lord of the Rings theme, we have nicknamed them <a href="https://lotr.fandom.com/wiki/Barad-d%C3%BBr">Barad-dûr</a> (“Dark Fortress”) and <a href="https://lotr.fandom.com/wiki/Ash_Mountains">Ered Lithui</a> (“Ash Mountains”), respectively. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412388/original/file-20210721-21-w24x9u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412388/original/file-20210721-21-w24x9u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412388/original/file-20210721-21-w24x9u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412388/original/file-20210721-21-w24x9u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412388/original/file-20210721-21-w24x9u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412388/original/file-20210721-21-w24x9u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412388/original/file-20210721-21-w24x9u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The voyage of the RV Investigator around Christmas Island.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tim O'Hara/Museums Victoria</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Although author J.R.R. Tolkein’s knowledge of mountain geology <a href="https://www.tor.com/2017/08/01/tolkiens-map-and-the-messed-up-mountains-of-middle-earth">wasn’t perfect</a>, our names are wonderfully appropriate given the jagged nature of the first and the pumice-covered surface of the second.</p>
<p>The Eye of Sauron, Barad-dûr, and Ered Lithui are part of the Karma cluster of seamounts that have been previously estimated by <a href="https://www.livescience.com/17557-christmas-island-seamounts-mystery-solved.html">geologists</a> to be more than 100 million years old, and which formed next to an ancient sea ridge from a time when Australia was situated much further south, near Antarctica. The flat summit of Ered Lithui was formed by wave erosion when the seamount protruded above the sea surface, before the heavy seamount slowly sank back down into the soft ocean seafloor. The summit of Ered Lithui is now 2.6km below sea level.</p>
<p><img width="100%" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1720/Karma-fly.gif?1626845098"></p>
<p>But here is the geological conundrum. Our caldera looks surprisingly fresh for a structure that should be more than 100 million years old. Ered Lithui has almost 100m of sand and mud layers draped over its summit, formed by sinking dead organisms over millions of years. This sedimentation rate would have partially smothered the caldera. Instead it is possible that volcanoes have continued to sprout or new ones formed long after the original foundation. Our restless Earth is never still.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412358/original/file-20210721-25-1jei4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Starfish" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412358/original/file-20210721-25-1jei4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412358/original/file-20210721-25-1jei4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412358/original/file-20210721-25-1jei4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412358/original/file-20210721-25-1jei4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412358/original/file-20210721-25-1jei4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412358/original/file-20210721-25-1jei4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412358/original/file-20210721-25-1jei4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The large deep-sea predatory seastar Zoroaster.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rob French/Museums Victoria</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412356/original/file-20210721-23-zbhz53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Batfish" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412356/original/file-20210721-23-zbhz53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412356/original/file-20210721-23-zbhz53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412356/original/file-20210721-23-zbhz53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412356/original/file-20210721-23-zbhz53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412356/original/file-20210721-23-zbhz53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412356/original/file-20210721-23-zbhz53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412356/original/file-20210721-23-zbhz53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Small batfish patrol the seamount summits.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rob French/Museums Victoria</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412355/original/file-20210721-25-ax5rh6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Sea pig" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412355/original/file-20210721-25-ax5rh6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412355/original/file-20210721-25-ax5rh6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412355/original/file-20210721-25-ax5rh6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412355/original/file-20210721-25-ax5rh6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412355/original/file-20210721-25-ax5rh6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412355/original/file-20210721-25-ax5rh6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412355/original/file-20210721-25-ax5rh6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Elasipod sea cucumbers feed on organic detritus on deep sandy seafloors.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rob French/Museums Victoria</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But life adapts to these geological changes, and Ered Lithui is now covered in seafloor animals. Brittle-stars, sea-stars, crabs and worms burrow into or skate over the sandy surface. Erect black corals, fan-corals, sea-whips, sponges and barnacles grow on exposed rocks. Gelatinous cusk-eels prowl around rock gullies and boulders. Batfish lie in wait for unsuspecting prey.</p>
<p>Our mission is to map the seafloor and survey sea life from these ancient and secluded seascapes. The Australian government recently announced plans to create two massive marine parks across the regions. Our expedition will supply scientific data that will help Parks Australia to manage these areas into the future. </p>
<p>Scientists from museums, universities, CSIRO and Bush Blitz around Australia are participating in the voyage. We are close to completing part one of our journey to the Christmas Island region. Part two of our journey to the Cocos (Keeling) Island region will be scheduled in the next year or so.</p>
<p>No doubt many animals that we find here will be new to science and our first records of their existence will be from this region. We expect many more surprising discoveries.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/this-deep-sea-creature-is-long-armed-bristling-with-teeth-and-the-sole-survivor-of-180-million-years-of-evolution-162842">This deep-sea creature is long-armed, bristling with teeth, and the sole survivor of 180 million years of evolution</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164855/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The voyage of exploration on the RV Investigator was facilitated by a grant of sea time by the CSIRO Marine National Facility, and funding from Parks Australia and Bush Blitz, both part of the Commonwealth Department of Agriculture, Water and Environment. </span></em></p>
Sonar scans of the Indian Ocean floor south of Christmas Island have revealed a Tolkeinesque landscape of towering peaks, ashen uplands and ominous volcanic craters.
Tim O'Hara, Senior Curator of Marine Invertebrates, Museums Victoria Research Institute
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/151831
2020-12-11T02:10:49Z
2020-12-11T02:10:49Z
Up to 90% of electricity from solar and wind the cheapest option by 2030: CSIRO analysis
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374107/original/file-20201210-22-l66823.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C134%2C5000%2C3188&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With the cost of energy generated from wind and solar now less than coal, the share of Australia’s electricity coming from renewables has reached 23%. The federal government projects the share will reach <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-12/australias-emissions-projections-2020.pdf">50% by 2030</a>. </p>
<p>It is at this point that integrating renewables into the energy system becomes <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/Do-business/Futures/Reports/Energy-and-Resources/Low-Emissions-Technology-Roadmap">more costly</a>.</p>
<p>We can add wind and solar farms at little extra cost when their share is low and other sources – such as coal and gas generators now – can compensate for their variability. At a certain point, however, there comes a need to invest in supporting infrastructure to ensure supply from mostly renewable generation can meet demand. </p>
<p>But by 2030, even with these extra costs, adding new variable renewable generation (solar and wind) to as high as a 90% share of the grid will still be cheaper than non-renewable options, according to new estimates from the CSIRO and Australian Energy Market Operator. </p>
<h2>Calculating energy costs</h2>
<p>International research, including from the <a href="https://www.irena.org/newsroom/pressreleases/2020/Jun/Renewables-Increasingly-Beat-Even-Cheapest-Coal-Competitors-on-Cost">International Renewable Energy Agency</a>, suggests solar and wind power are now the cheapest new sources of electricity in most parts of the world.</p>
<p>Our estimates, made for the third annual “GenCost” report (short for generation cost), confirm this is also now the case in Australia.</p>
<p>We compare the cost of new-build coal, gas, solar photovoltaics (both small and large scale), solar-thermal, wind and a number of speculative options (such as nuclear).</p>
<p>What we’ve been able to more accurately estimate in the new report is the cost of integrating more and more renewable energy into the energy system, as coal and gas generators are retired.</p>
<p>The two key extra integration costs are energy storage and more transmission lines.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sure-no-one-likes-a-blackout-but-keeping-the-lights-on-is-about-to-get-expensive-145168">Sure, no-one likes a blackout. But keeping the lights on is about to get expensive</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Storage costs</h2>
<p>For any system dominated by renewables, storing energy is essential. </p>
<p>Storage means renewable energy can be saved when it is overproducing relative to demand – for example, in the middle of the day for solar, or during extended windy conditions. Stored energy can then be used when renewables cannot meet demand – such as overcast days or at night for solar. </p>
<p>Among options being considered for large-scale investment in Australia are batteries and pumped hydro energy storage (using excess renewable power to pump water back up to dams to again drive hydroelectric turbines).</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374056/original/file-20201210-14-j6glaz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374056/original/file-20201210-14-j6glaz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374056/original/file-20201210-14-j6glaz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374056/original/file-20201210-14-j6glaz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374056/original/file-20201210-14-j6glaz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374056/original/file-20201210-14-j6glaz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374056/original/file-20201210-14-j6glaz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374056/original/file-20201210-14-j6glaz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Capital costs of storage technologies in $/kWh (total cost basis). Aurecon and Entura are engingeering businesses who publish project cost estimates. AEMO ISP is the Australian Energy Market Operator’s Integrated System Plan, which also includes technology cost estimates.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>Pumped hydro sites can provide storage for hours or days. There are three schemes in Australia: Talbingo and Shoalhaven in New South Wales, and Wivenhoe near Brisbane. </p>
<p>Battery costs have been falling steadily and tend to be most competitive for storage electricity for less than eight hours. South Australia’s big battery (officially known as the Hornsdale Power Reserve) is the most obvious example.</p>
<h2>Transmission costs</h2>
<p>The other key cost to integrate more renewable energy generation into the electricity grid is building more transmission lines. Right now those lines mostly run from coal and gas power stations near coal mines. </p>
<p>But this not where new large-scale renewable generation will be. Solar farms are best placed inland, where there is less cloud cover, and in the mid to northern regions of Australia. Wind farms are generally better located in elevated areas and in the southern regions. We’ll need to build new transmission links to these “renewable energy zones”. </p>
<p>Transmission links between the states in the National Electricity Market (Queensland, New South Wales, Australian Capital Territory, Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia) will need to be improved so they can better support each other if one or more are experiencing low renewable energy output. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/20-years-on-the-national-electricity-market-is-on-the-way-out-and-its-ok-151018">20 years on, the national electricity market is on the way out, and it's OK</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Total integration costs</h2>
<p>So how much extra will it cost for Australia to have a higher share (up to 90%) of electricity from wind and solar (variable renewable energy)? The following graph summarises our findings based on 2030 cost projections.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Projected renewable generation and integration costs by variable renewable energy share in 2030." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374148/original/file-20201210-19-190oxm.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374148/original/file-20201210-19-190oxm.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374148/original/file-20201210-19-190oxm.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374148/original/file-20201210-19-190oxm.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374148/original/file-20201210-19-190oxm.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374148/original/file-20201210-19-190oxm.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374148/original/file-20201210-19-190oxm.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Projected renewable energy generation and integration costs by variable renewable energy share in 2030.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>The cost of generating energy from wind and solar (shown in light blue) is about A$40 per megawatt-hour (MWh). This is is slightly below current average market prices.</p>
<p>A higher share of renewable energy adds storage costs (in black) and transmission costs (grey and dark blue). These integration costs increase from A$4/MWh to A$20/MWh as the variable renewable energy share increases from 50% to 90%. </p>
<p>At 90% renewable energy, the total cost is A$63/MWh. But that’s still cheaper than the cost of new coal and gas-fired electricity generation, which is in the range of A$70 to A$90/MWh (under ideal assumptions of low fuel pricing and no climate policy risk).</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The 2020-21 GenCost report is now in the formal consultation period with stakeholders including industry, government, regulators and academia. The final report is due to be published in March 2021.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151831/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Over the course of his career, Paul Graham has received funding from government, industry, community and institutional energy stakeholders covering a very wide range of technology related interests.</span></em></p>
The latest estimates of electricity generation costs in Australia find renewables will soon be the cheapest even with grid integration expenses.
Paul Graham, Chief economist, CSIRO energy, CSIRO
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/148442
2020-11-30T19:07:33Z
2020-11-30T19:07:33Z
We’ve mapped a million previously undiscovered galaxies beyond the Milky Way. Take the virtual tour here.
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371858/original/file-20201130-23-cb0ej8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=142%2C0%2C8525%2C3313&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Astronomers have mapped about a million previously undiscovered galaxies beyond the Milky Way, in the most detailed survey of the southern sky ever carried out using radio waves.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://research.csiro.au/racs/">Rapid ASKAP Continuum Survey</a> (or RACS) has placed the CSIRO’s <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/Research/Facilities/ATNF/ASKAP">Australian SKA Pathfinder</a> radio telescope (ASKAP) firmly on the international astronomy map.</p>
<p>While past surveys have taken years to complete, ASKAP’s RACS survey was conducted in less than two weeks — smashing previous records for speed. Data gathered have produced images five times more sensitive and twice as detailed as previous ones.</p>
<h2>What is radio astronomy?</h2>
<p>Modern astronomy is a multi-wavelength enterprise. What do we mean by this?</p>
<p>Well, most objects in the universe (including humans) emit radiation over a broad spectrum, called the electromagnetic spectrum. This includes both visible and invisible light such as X-rays, ultraviolet light, infrared light and radio waves.</p>
<p>To understand the universe, we need to observe the entire electromagnetic spectrum as each wavelength carries different information. </p>
<p>Radio waves have the longest wavelength of all forms of light. They allow us to study some of the most extreme environments in the universe, from cold clouds of gas to supermassive black holes. </p>
<p>Long wavelengths pass through clouds, dust and the atmosphere with ease, but need to be received with large antennas. Australia’s wide open (but relatively low-altitude) spaces are the perfect place to build large radio telescopes.</p>
<p>We have some of the most spectacular views of the centre of the Milky Way from our position in the Southern Hemisphere. Indigenous astronomers have appreciated this benefit for millennia.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-7809-marcialangton-to-7630-yidumduma-5-asteroids-named-after-aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-people-144596">From 7809 Marcialangton to 7630 Yidumduma: 5 asteroids named after Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A stellar breakthrough</h2>
<p>Radio astronomy is a <a href="https://public.nrao.edu/radio-astronomy/the-history-of-radio-astronomy/">relatively new field</a> of research, dating back to the 1930s. </p>
<p>The first detailed 30cm radio map of the southern sky — which includes everything a telescope can see from its location in the Southern Hemisphere — was Sydney University’s <a href="http://www.astrop.physics.usyd.edu.au/sumss/">Molonglo Sky Survey</a>. Completed in 2006, this survey took almost a decade to observe 25% of the entire sky and produce final data products. </p>
<p>Our team at CSIRO’s Astronomy and Space Science division has smashed this record by surveying 83% of the sky in just ten days.</p>
<p>With the <a href="https://research.csiro.au/racs/">RACS survey</a> we produced 903 images, each requiring 15 minutes of exposure time. We then combined these into one map covering the entire area.</p>
<p>The resulting panorama of the radio sky will look surprisingly familiar to anyone who has looked up at the night sky themselves. In our photos, however, nearly all the bright points are entire galaxies, rather than individual stars. </p>
<p>Take our <a href="https://www.atnf.csiro.au/research/RACS/RACStour/index.html">virtual tour</a> below. </p>
<iframe src="https://www.atnf.csiro.au/research/RACS/RACStour/index.html" width="100%" height="500px"></iframe>
<p>Astronomers working on the catalogue have identified about three million galaxies — considerably more than the 260,000 galaxies identified during the Molonglo Sky Survey.</p>
<h2>Why do we need to map the universe?</h2>
<p>We know how important maps are on Earth. They provide crucial navigational assistance and offer information about terrain which is useful for land management.</p>
<p>Similarly, maps of the sky provide astronomers with important context for research and statistical power. They can tell us how certain galaxies behave, such as whether they exist in clusters of companions or drift through space on their own.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-you-look-up-how-far-back-in-time-do-you-see-101176">When you look up, how far back in time do you see?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Being able to conduct an all-sky survey in less than two weeks opens numerous opportunities for research. </p>
<p>For example, little is known about how the radio sky changes over timescales of days to months. We can now regularly revisit each of the three million galaxies identified in the RACS catalogue to track any differences.</p>
<p>Also, some of the largest unanswered questions in astronomy relate to how galaxies became the elliptical, spiral, or irregular shapes we see. A <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-a-beginners-guide-to-the-galaxy-49">popular theory</a> suggests large galaxies grow via the merger of many smaller ones. </p>
<p>But the details of this process are elusive and difficult to reconcile with simulations. Understanding the 13 billion or so years of our universe’s cosmic history requires a telescope that can see across vast distances and accurately map everything it finds.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371886/original/file-20201130-19-9m28tm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Image of the Centaurus A galaxy." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371886/original/file-20201130-19-9m28tm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371886/original/file-20201130-19-9m28tm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371886/original/file-20201130-19-9m28tm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371886/original/file-20201130-19-9m28tm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371886/original/file-20201130-19-9m28tm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371886/original/file-20201130-19-9m28tm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371886/original/file-20201130-19-9m28tm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The giant Centaurus A galaxy was one elliptical galaxy captured in the RACS survey. Although more than ten million light years away, it’s one of the closest radio galaxies to Earth. You can see its ‘intensity’ represented by different colours.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>High technology putting new goals within reach</h2>
<p>The CSIRO’s RACS survey is an amazing advance made possible by huge leaps in space tech. The <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/Research/Facilities/ATNF/ASKAP">ASKAP radio telescope</a>, which became fully operational in February last year, was designed for speed.</p>
<p>CSIRO’s engineers developed innovative radio receivers called “<a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/Research/Astronomy/ASKAP-and-the-Square-Kilometre-Array/PAFs">phased array feeds</a>” and high-speed digital signal processors specifically for ASKAP. It’s these technologies that provide ASKAP’s wide field of view and rapid surveying capability.</p>
<p>Over the next few years, ASKAP is expected to conduct even more sensitive surveys in different wavelength bands.</p>
<p>In the meantime, the RACS survey catalogue is greatly improving our knowledge of the radio sky. It’ll continue to be a key resource for researchers around the world. </p>
<p>Full resolution images can be downloaded from the <a href="https://data.csiro.au/collections/collection/CIcsiro:46533">ASKAP data archive</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148442/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aidan Hotan is employed by CSIRO. The ASKAP radio telescope is part of the Australia Telescope National Facility which is managed by CSIRO. Operation of ASKAP is funded by the Australian Government. ASKAP uses the resources of the Pawsey Supercomputing Centre. Establishment of ASKAP, the Murchison Radio-astronomy Observatory and the Pawsey Supercomputing Centre are initiatives of the Australian Government, with support from the Government of Western Australia and the Science and Industry Endowment Fund. We acknowledge the Wajarri Yamaji people as the traditional owners of the Observatory site.</span></em></p>
Researchers have spotted millions of galaxies in the most detailed radio survey of the southern sky ever conducted. It has smashed previous records for survey speed.
Aidan Hotan, ASKAP lead scientist, CSIRO
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/146410
2020-09-21T19:59:05Z
2020-09-21T19:59:05Z
Healthcare, minerals, energy, food: how adopting new tech could drive Australia’s economic recovery
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359005/original/file-20200921-16-1s21uza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=27%2C44%2C1070%2C686&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the next few years, science and technology will have a vital role in supporting Australia’s economy as it strives to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.</p>
<p>At Australia’s national science agency, CSIRO, we’ve identified <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/Do-business/Futures/Reports/Innovation-and-business-growth/COVID-19-recovery-resilience">opportunities</a> that can help businesses drive economic recovery.</p>
<p>We examined how the pandemic has created or intensified opportunities for economic growth across six sectors benefiting from science and technology. These are food and agribusiness, energy, health, mineral resources, digital and manufacturing. </p>
<h2>Advanced healthcare</h2>
<p>While some aspects of Australian healthcare are currently digitised, system-wide digital health integration could improve the quality of care and save money. </p>
<p>Doctors caring for patients with chronic diseases or complex conditions could digitally coordinate care routines. This could streamline patient care by avoiding consultation double-ups and providing a more holistic view of patient health.</p>
<p>We also see potential for more efficient healthcare delivery through medical diagnostic tests that are more portable and non-invasive. Such tests, supported by artificial intelligence and smart data storage approaches, would allow faster disease detection and monitoring.</p>
<p>There’s also opportunity for developing <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/Do-business/Futures/Reports/Future-Industries/Advanced-manufacturing-roadmap">specialised components</a> such as 3D-printed prosthetics, dental and bone implants.</p>
<h2>Green energy</h2>
<p>Despite a short-term plateau in energy consumption caused by COVID-19 globally, the demand for energy will <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2020">continue to grow</a>.</p>
<p>Through clean energy exports and energy initiatives aligned with <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/strategies-for-the-future/australias-climate-change-strategies">decarbonisation goals</a>, Australia can help meet global energy demands. Energy-efficient technologies offer immediate reduced energy costs, reduced carbon emissions and less demand on the energy grid. They also create local jobs.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/it-might-sound-batshit-insane-but-australia-could-soon-export-sunshine-to-asia-via-a-3-800km-cable-127612">It might sound 'batshit insane' but Australia could soon export sunshine to Asia via a 3,800km cable</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Innovating with food and agribusiness</h2>
<p>The food and agribusiness sector is a prominent contributor to Australia’s economy and supports regional and rural prosperity. </p>
<p>Global population <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/future-population-growth">growth</a> is driving an <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/meat-production">increased demand for protein</a>. At the same time, consumers <a href="https://newsroom.accenture.com/news/covid-19-increasing-consumers-focus-on-ethical-consumption-accenture-survey-finds.htm">want</a> more products that are sustainable and ethically sourced.</p>
<p>Australia could earn revenue from the local production and export of more sustainable proteins. This might include plant-based proteins such as pea and lupins, or aquaculture products such as farmed prawns and seaweed.</p>
<p>We could also <a href="https://pir.sa.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/287699/Market_Opportunities_Functional_-_Gluten_Free_Foods.pdf">offer</a> more high-value health and well-being foods. Examples include fortified foods and products free from gluten, lactose and other allergens.</p>
<h2>Automating minerals processes</h2>
<p>Even before COVID-19 struck, the mineral resources sector was <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/Do-business/Futures/Reports/Energy-and-Resources/METS-Roadmap">facing</a> rising costs and declining ore grades. It’s also dealing with climate change impacts such as droughts, bushfires, floods, and social pressures to reduce environmental harm.</p>
<p>Several innovative solutions could help make the sector more productive and sustainable. For instance, increasing <a href="https://stockhead.com.au/resources/the-move-to-automated-mining-is-on-but-whos-really-ready-to-join-the-robot-revolution/">automation</a> and <a href="https://www.mining-technology.com/features/sizing-syama-worlds-first-fully-automated-mine/">remote mining</a> (which Australia already excels in) could achieve improved safety for workers, more productivity and business continuity.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-coronavirus-has-thrust-human-limitations-into-the-spotlight-will-it-mark-the-rise-of-automation-139198">The coronavirus has thrust human limitations into the spotlight. Will it mark the rise of automation?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Also, investing in advanced technologies that can generate higher quality data on mineral character and composition could improve yields and minimise environmental harm.</p>
<h2>High-tech manufacturing</h2>
<p>COVID-19 has escalated concerns around Australia’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-your-local-store-keeps-running-out-of-flour-toilet-paper-and-prescription-drugs-135786">supply chain fragility</a> – take the toilet paper shortages earlier in the pandemic. Expanding local manufacturing efforts could create jobs and increase Australia’s earning potential. </p>
<p>This is especially true for mineral processing and manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, food and beverages, space technology and defence. Our local manufacturing will need to adapt quickly to changes in supply needs, ideally through the use of advanced designs and technology. </p>
<h2>Digital solutions</h2>
<p>In April and May this year, Australian businesses made huge strides in adopting consumer and business digital technologies. One study estimated <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/the-covid-19-recovery-will-be-digital-a-plan-for-the-first-90-days">five years’ worth of progress</a> occurred in those eight weeks. Hundreds of thousands of businesses <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/business-indicators/business-indicators-business-impacts-covid-19">moved their work online</a>.</p>
<p>Over the next two years, Australian businesses could become more efficient and adaptable by further monetising the data they already collect. For example, applying mobile sensors, robotics and machine learning techniques could help us make <a href="https://data61.csiro.au/en/Our-Research/Our-Work/Future-Cities/Planning-sustainable-infrastructure/Digital-Innovation">better resource decisions</a> in agriculture.</p>
<p>Similarly, businesses could share more data throughout the supply chain, including with customers and competitors. For instance, increased data sharing among renewable energy providers and customers could improve the monitoring, forecasting and reliability of energy supply.</p>
<p>Making the right plans and investments now will determine Australia’s recovery and resilience in the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146410/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine Wynn works for the CSIRO, which receives funding from the Australian Government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Deverell works for the CSIRO, which receives funding from the Australian Government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Max works for the CSIRO, which receives funding from the Australian Government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mingji works for the CSIRO, which receives funding from the Australian Government.</span></em></p>
Digitising healthcare and exporting more sustainable protein alternatives are just some ideas that could help Australia’s economy return to form.
Katherine Wynn, Lead Economist, CSIRO Futures, CSIRO
James Deverell, Director, CSIRO Futures, CSIRO
Max Temminghoff, Senior Consultant, CSIRO
Mingji Liu, Senior Economic Consultant, CSIRO
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/144119
2020-08-13T02:18:52Z
2020-08-13T02:18:52Z
Carbon dioxide levels over Australia rose even after COVID-19 forced global emissions down. Here’s why
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352259/original/file-20200811-19-kvyh8f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=58%2C464%2C4777%2C2994&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>COVID-19 has curtailed the activities of millions of people across the world and with it, greenhouse gas emissions. As climate scientists at the Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station, we are routinely asked: does this mean carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have fallen?</p>
<p>The answer, disappointingly, is no. Throughout the pandemic, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels continued to rise. </p>
<p>In fact, our measurements show more CO₂ accumulated in the atmosphere between January and July 2020 than during the same period in 2017 or 2018. </p>
<p>Emissions from last summer’s bushfires may have contributed to this. But there are several other reasons why COVID-19 has not brought CO₂ concentrations down at Cape Grim – let’s take a look at them.</p>
<h2>Measuring the cleanest air in the world</h2>
<p>Cape Grim is on the northwest tip of Tasmania. Scientists at the station, run by the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, have monitored and studied the global atmosphere for the past 44 years.</p>
<p>The air we monitor is the cleanest in the world when it blows from the southwest, off the Southern Ocean. Measurements taken during these conditions are known as “baseline concentrations”, and represent the underlying level of carbon dioxide in the Southern Hemisphere’s atmosphere.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The Cape Grim station" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352260/original/file-20200811-22-jaderc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352260/original/file-20200811-22-jaderc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352260/original/file-20200811-22-jaderc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352260/original/file-20200811-22-jaderc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352260/original/file-20200811-22-jaderc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352260/original/file-20200811-22-jaderc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352260/original/file-20200811-22-jaderc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Cape Grim station measures the cleanest air in the world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bureau of Meteorology</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/forty-years-of-measuring-the-worlds-cleanest-air-reveals-human-fingerprints-on-the-atmosphere-68489">Forty years of measuring the world's cleanest air reveals human fingerprints on the atmosphere</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A drop in the CO₂ ocean</h2>
<p>Emissions reductions due to COVID-19 started in China in January, and peaked globally in April. Our measurements show atmospheric CO₂ levels rose during that period. In January 2020, baseline CO₂ was 408.3 parts per million (ppm) at Cape Grim. By July that had risen to 410 ppm.</p>
<p>Since the station first began measurements in 1976, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have increased by 25%, as shown in the graph below. The slowdown in the rate of carbon emissions during the pandemic is a mere tug against this overall upward trend. </p>
<p>The CO₂ increase is due to the burning of fossil fuels for energy, and land use change such as deforestation which leaves fewer trees to absorb CO₂ from the air, and changes the uptake and release of carbon in the soils. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Baseline CO₂ record from Cape Grim." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352385/original/file-20200811-23-137bns1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352385/original/file-20200811-23-137bns1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352385/original/file-20200811-23-137bns1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352385/original/file-20200811-23-137bns1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352385/original/file-20200811-23-137bns1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352385/original/file-20200811-23-137bns1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352385/original/file-20200811-23-137bns1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Baseline CO₂ record from Cape Grim.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Atmospheric transport</h2>
<p>Large air circulation patterns in the atmosphere spread gases such as CO₂ around the world, but this process takes time. </p>
<p>Most emissions reduction due to COVID-19 occurred in the Northern Hemisphere, because that’s where most of the world’s population lives. Direct measurements of CO₂ in cities where strict lockdown measures were imposed show emissions reductions of <a href="https://www.icos-cp.eu/event/933">up to 75%</a>. This would have reduced atmospheric CO₂ concentrations locally. </p>
<p>But it will take many months for this change to manifest in the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere – and by the time it does, the effect will be significantly diluted.</p>
<h2>Natural ups and downs</h2>
<p>Emissions reductions during COVID-19 are a tiny component of a very large carbon cycle. This cycle is so dynamic that even when the emissions slowdown <em>is</em> reflected in atmospheric CO₂ levels, the reduction will be well within the cycle’s natural ebb and flow.</p>
<p>Here’s why. Global carbon emissions have grown by about <a href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/index.htm">1% a year</a> over the past decade. This has triggered growth in atmospheric CO₂ levels of between 2 and 3 ppm per year in that time, as shown in the graph below. In fact, since our measurements began, CO₂ has accumulated more rapidly in the atmosphere with every passing decade, as emissions have grown. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Annual growth in CO₂ at Cape Grim since 1976. Red horizontal bars show the average growth rate in ppm/year each decade." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352386/original/file-20200811-20-rcsoew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352386/original/file-20200811-20-rcsoew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352386/original/file-20200811-20-rcsoew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352386/original/file-20200811-20-rcsoew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352386/original/file-20200811-20-rcsoew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352386/original/file-20200811-20-rcsoew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352386/original/file-20200811-20-rcsoew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Annual growth in CO₂ at Cape Grim since 1976. Red horizontal bars show the average growth rate in ppm/year each decade.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But although CO₂ emissions have grown consistently, the resulting rate of accumulation in the atmosphere varies considerably each year. This is because roughly half of human emissions are mopped up by ecosystems and the oceans, and these processes change from year to year.</p>
<p>For example, in southeast Australia, last summer’s extensive and prolonged bushfires emitted unusually large amounts of CO₂, as well as changing the capacity of ecosystems to absorb it. And during strong El Niño events, reduced rainfall in some regions limits the productivity of grasslands and forests, so they take up less CO₂.</p>
<p>The graph below visualises this variability. It shows the baseline CO₂ concentrations for each year, relative to January 1. Note how the baseline level changes through a natural seasonal cycle, how that change varies from year to year and how much CO₂ has been added to the atmosphere by the end of the year. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Daily baseline values for CO₂ for each year from 1977 relative to 1 January for that year" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352387/original/file-20200811-17-1nf3d6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352387/original/file-20200811-17-1nf3d6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352387/original/file-20200811-17-1nf3d6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352387/original/file-20200811-17-1nf3d6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352387/original/file-20200811-17-1nf3d6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352387/original/file-20200811-17-1nf3d6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352387/original/file-20200811-17-1nf3d6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Daily baseline values for CO2 for each year from 1977 relative to 1 January for that year.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The growth rate has been as much as 3 ppm per year. The black line represents 2020 and lines for the preceding five years are coloured. All show recent annual growth rates of about 2-3 ppm/year – a variability in the range of about 1 ppm/year. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-is-a-sliding-doors-moment-what-we-do-now-could-change-earths-trajectory-137838">Coronavirus is a 'sliding doors' moment. What we do now could change Earth's trajectory</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0797-x">Research in May</a> estimated that due to the COVID-19 lockdowns, global annual average emissions for 2020 would be between 4.2% and 7.5% lower than for 2019. </p>
<p>Let’s simplistically assume CO₂ concentration growth reduces by the same amount. There would be 0.08-0.23 ppm less CO₂ in the atmosphere by the end of 2020 than if no pandemic occurred. This variation is well within the natural 1 ppm/year annual variability in CO₂ growth. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="CO₂ is released in industrial emissions" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352266/original/file-20200811-14-18ouptr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352266/original/file-20200811-14-18ouptr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352266/original/file-20200811-14-18ouptr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352266/original/file-20200811-14-18ouptr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352266/original/file-20200811-14-18ouptr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352266/original/file-20200811-14-18ouptr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352266/original/file-20200811-14-18ouptr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">CO₂ levels in the atmosphere are increasing due to fossil fuel burning and land use change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The road ahead</h2>
<p>It’s clear COVID-19 has not solved the climate change problem. But this fact helps us understand the magnitude of change required if we’re to stabilise the global climate system.</p>
<p>The central aim of the Paris climate agreement is to limit global warming to well below 2°C, and pursue efforts to keep it below 1.5°C. To achieve this, global CO₂ emissions must decline <a href="https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/30798/EGR19ESEN.pdf?sequence=13">by 3% and 7%</a> each year, respectively, until 2030, according to the United Nations Emissions Gap Report.</p>
<p>Thanks to COVID-19, we may achieve this reduction in 2020. But to lock in year-on-year emissions reductions that will be reflected in the atmosphere, we must act now to make deep, significant and permanent changes to global energy and economic systems.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The lead author, Zoe Loh, discusses the CO₂ record from Cape Grim in Fight for Planet A, <a href="https://iview.abc.net.au/show/fight-for-planet-a-our-climate-challenge">showing now</a> on the ABC.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-theres-more-greenhouse-gas-in-the-atmosphere-than-you-may-have-realised-118336">Why there's more greenhouse gas in the atmosphere than you may have realised</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144119/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zoe Loh is employed by CSIRO and receives funding from The Australian Bureau of Meteorology. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Helen Cleugh received funding from the Australian government in the past, including the Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment (and its predecessors). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Krummel is employed by CSIRO and receives funding from MIT, NASA, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment, and Refrigerant Reclaim Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ray Langenfelds works for CSIRO and receives funding from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. </span></em></p>
Despite this year’s coronavirus lockdowns, more CO2 has accumulated in the atmosphere than during the same period in 2017 or 2018.
Zoe Loh, Senior Research Scientist, CSIRO
Helen Cleugh, Senior research scientist, CSIRO Climate Science Centre, CSIRO
Paul Krummel, Research Group Leader, CSIRO
Ray Langenfelds, Scientist at CSIRO Atmospheric Research, CSIRO
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/143752
2020-08-07T01:37:40Z
2020-08-07T01:37:40Z
We can’t let STEM skills become a casualty of COVID-19
<p>Universities and other research organisations in Australia have been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<p>In May, a group led by Australia’s Chief Scientist Alan Finkel <a href="https://www.chiefscientist.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-05/rrif-covid19-research-workforce.pdf">forecasted</a> severe impacts for our research workforce. These included the loss of the equivalent of up to 21,000 full-time jobs in universities this year, including around 7,000 related to research.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/universities-are-cutting-hundreds-of-jobs-they-and-the-government-can-do-better-142824">Universities are cutting hundreds of jobs – they, and the government, can do better</a>
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<p>These effects are now becoming very real. Universities and other research institutions are <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2020/07/26/universities-30000-jobs/">losing income</a> as international students disappear. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-15/almost-500-jobs-cut-at-unsw-due-to-coronavirus-impact/12459228">Several</a> universities have <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/deakin-uni-to-shed-300-jobs-as-tertiary-sector-s-covid-19-woes-grow-20200525-p54w5a.html">announced</a> they will <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/16/monash-university-to-cut-277-jobs-as-slump-in-international-students-bites">cut jobs</a>, and plenty more are expected.</p>
<p>Recovering these jobs won’t be quick or easy. There will be lasting impacts on our research sector.</p>
<p>At the same time, however, science and technology are essential to the recovery from this crisis, and to the long-term future of our economy.</p>
<p>In 2019 CSIRO released our <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/Showcase/ANO">Australian National Outlook</a> report, which identified the key areas to drive innovation to secure our future prosperity. It said we need to reinvent our industries to make us more unique and more profitable, or risk falling into slow decline. Little did we know we would already be in recession in 2020.</p>
<p>Future economic growth will depend on the creation of future industries such as advanced manufacturing, hydrogen, space and quantum technologies. Science, including social sciences, will also underpin the delivery of many public sector services, including water management, land management and defence. </p>
<h2>Invest now to prepare for the future</h2>
<p>Expertise doesn’t grow overnight. Australia’s response to COVID-19 has been led by scientists we invested in decades ago. To face the challenges of the future, we need to invest today in the people who will be the leaders of tomorrow.</p>
<p>Both men and women will be the leaders of the future. Evidence suggests women in STEM, who are <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/advancing-women-in-stem-strategy/snapshot-of-disparity-in-stem">already underrepresented</a>, are being <a href="https://www.science.org.au/sites/default/files/rrif-covid19-research-workforce.pdf">hit hard by COVID-19 impacts</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/chief-scientist-women-in-stem-are-still-far-short-of-workplace-equity-covid-19-risks-undoing-even-these-modest-gains-143092">Chief Scientist: women in STEM are still far short of workplace equity. COVID-19 risks undoing even these modest gains</a>
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</p>
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<p>Supporting these women is a key to future success: research shows increasing the number of women in leadership positions by just 10% <a href="https://www.wgea.gov.au/data/wgea-research/gender-equity-insights-series">boosts a company’s market value</a> by 6.6%, or an average of A$105 million. Extrapolate that across entire industries and you are going to get some big numbers.</p>
<h2>One way forward</h2>
<p>The best response to this crisis will vary for different organisations. CSIRO’s approach is to continue working with universities and business to run programs that grow Australia’s future STEM workforce.</p>
<p>Each year, CSIRO recruits around 100 graduates from STEM higher degrees as postdoctoral fellows. In the past 24 months we have recruited 155 of these, of whom just over a third are women.</p>
<p>This year we are making as many positions available as possible, as quickly as we can. We are currently recruiting 50 postdoctoral positions and we plan to advertise another 20 later in the year.</p>
<h2>The challenge</h2>
<p>Without a thriving science and technology sector, Australia will not generate the innovation that spurs economic growth.</p>
<p>There are many other postgraduate students looking for placements and jobs, as well as the university staff and academics who will potentially be retrenched.</p>
<p>These are highly skilled people and we need them in our workforce. Our challenge is to support them to be taken up in other sectors by organisations looking to boost research and development, or help them create new businesses of their own.</p>
<p>Continued investment in R&D during economic downturn can give industries and businesses a competitive edge. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/operations/our-insights/r-and-ampd-in-the-downturn-mckinsey-global-survey-results">Research by McKinsey</a> following the 2008 downturn found organisations were reluctant to cut R&D activities, seeing them as a competitive advantage for future growth. Organisations that gained the greatest benefit from R&D expanded their programs. </p>
<p>With all these skilled researchers coming into the market, there is an opportunity for industry to take them on and increase business investment in R&D, which has fallen in recent years and left Australia well below the OECD average. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-government-actually-predict-the-jobs-of-the-future-141275">Can government actually predict the jobs of the future?</a>
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</p>
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<p>Either way, instead of letting this amazing workforce disappear, we have an opportunity to help them find a different pathway to impact, one that may also help Australian businesses boost the sophistication of their products at the same time. Lemons to lemonade, as they say.</p>
<p>We need our scientists now more than ever to help us develop the high-value industries that will secure our future jobs and prosperity.</p>
<p>We can’t let our future STEM skills become a casualty of COVID-19, or we will pay for it in decades to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143752/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cathy Foley sits on the board of the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering, she is on the editorial board of The Conversation, and is the editor in chief of the Superconductor Science and Technology Journal.</span></em></p>
We need our scientists now more than ever to help us grow the high-value industries that will secure our future jobs and prosperity.
Cathy Foley, Chief Scientist, CSIRO
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.