tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/hazelwood-3346/articlesHazelwood – The Conversation2018-09-06T02:46:41Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1027182018-09-06T02:46:41Z2018-09-06T02:46:41ZCoal does not have an economic future in Australia<p>Renewables are stealing the march over coal in Australia, and the international outlook is for lower coal demand. Today the international <a href="https://coaltransitions.org/">Coal Transitions project</a> released its findings, based on global coal scenarios and detailed case studies by teams in China, India, South Africa, Australia, Poland and Germany. </p>
<p>Our research on <a href="https://coaltransitions.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/coal_australia_final.pdf">Australian coal transition</a> – based on contributions by researchers at the Australian National University and the University of Melbourne – looks into the prospects for coal use in Australia and for exports, and the experiences with local transition in the case of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/hazelwood-closure-what-it-means-for-electricity-prices-and-blackouts-75135">Hazelwood power station closure</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/hazelwood-closure-what-it-means-for-electricity-prices-and-blackouts-75135">Hazelwood closure: what it means for electricity prices and blackouts</a>
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<h2>Coal exports</h2>
<p>Coal production in Australia is likely to be on a long term declining trajectory. Almost all coking coal (coal used for making steel) mined in Australia is exported, as is around 70% of steam coal (for electricity generation). Australia supplies about a fifth of the global steam coal trade. </p>
<p>A question mark hangs over the future of steam coal exports. Economic, technological and policy developments in other countries all point to likely falling coal use over time. The international coal transitions <a href="https://coaltransitions.org/%20website%20goes%20up%202am%20on%20Thursday">synthesis report</a> expects that global coal consumption will go into reverse by the early 2020s.</p>
<p>In most industrialising countries, there are big concerns about local air pollution, and renewable power alternatives are becoming cost-competitive with coal. Add to that the pressure to meet Paris emissions targets. </p>
<p>China and India, on which much of the <a href="http://www.minerals.org.au/sites/default/files/180615%20MCA%20Thermal%20Coal%20Outlook%20Study.pdf">hopes of Australia’s coal export industry</a> are pinned, mine coal themselves. When overall coal use in these countries falls, imports may be curbed, if only because of pressures to prop up domestic coal mining.</p>
<h2>Coal in Australia’s power sector</h2>
<p>Most coal used in Australia is for power generation. We are at the start of a fundamental change in the system, where coal power will be replaced by renewables, with <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-energy-storage-is-starting-to-rewire-the-electricity-industry-93259">energy storage and flexible demand-side response</a> to firm up the system. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/want-energy-storage-here-are-22-000-sites-for-pumped-hydro-across-australia-84275">Want energy storage? Here are 22,000 sites for pumped hydro across Australia</a>
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<p>This change now reflects market economics. New wind farms and solar parks can now provide energy at much lower cost than any new fossil fuel powered generators. A new coal fired power plant would need subsidies, take a long time to build, and suffer exposure to future carbon policy. </p>
<p>The competition is now between renewables and existing coal fired power stations. Wind and solar power cost next to nothing to run once built, so they are dispatched first on the grid and tend to bring wholesale market prices down. In turn, the economics of coal power plants deteriorates. They will not be able to sell as much power, and get lower prices on average for every megawatt-hour of electricity produced. New wind and solar is now contracted at prices close to the operating cost of some existing coal plants, and renewables costs are falling further.</p>
<p>Coal plants will be less and less profitable. They will tend to be shut down earlier, typically when major repairs or overhauls are due. Major refurbishments will tend to become unattractive. And the system does not need coal plants to run reliably. A combination of regionally dispersed renewables, pumped hydro and battery storage, gas plants and demand response will do the job. </p>
<p>It is difficult to predict just when coal plants will shut down. The following graphic illustrates the difference between a flat 50-year retirement pattern (as used for example by the <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/Planning_and_Forecasting/ISP/2018/Integrated-System-Plan-2018_final.pdf">Australian Energy Market Operator</a>), with plants retiring at 40 years of age, in line with the average retirement age of plants over the past decade, and two illustrative scenarios that capture the fact that coal plants will come under increasing economic pressure. </p>
<p>In our “moderate” scenario, remaining coal plants retire at 55 years in 2017 and progressively retire younger until they exit at age 30 by 2050. In our “faster” scenario, plants exit at 50 years now, then progressively younger until they exit at age 30 by 2030.</p>
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<span class="caption">Coal closure scenarios from Coal Transitions Australia report.</span>
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<p>Even more rapid closure scenarios are plausible if the cost of renewables and storage continue on their recent trends. We do not present them here, instead opting for relatively conservative assumptions.</p>
<p>The pace of closure makes a big difference to emissions. In the “moderate” scenario, cumulative emissions from coal use are around 2.6 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO₂) during 2020-50, and in the “faster” scenario around 1.8 GtCO₂. </p>
<p>As a reference point, a “2 degree compatible” <a href="http://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/files/files/Target-Progress-Review/Targets%20and%20Progress%20Review%20Final%20Report.pdf">emissions budget</a> for Australia proposed by Australia’s Climate Change Authority has a total national emissions budget of around 5.8 GtCO₂ from 2020-50. Our “moderate” scenario has coal emissions take up around 44% of that cumulative emissions budget, while the “faster” scenario takes up around 32%. By comparison, coal currently makes up around 30% of Australia’s annual net emissions. </p>
<p>It is no longer true that reducing emissions in the electricity sector necessarily means higher prices. These days, and in the future, having policy to guide the replacement of ageing coal capacity with cheap renewables is a win-win for consumers and the environment. </p>
<h2>We had better get ready</h2>
<p>We better put our efforts in preparing for the transition, rather than trying to stem the tide. That includes a meaningful policy treatment of carbon emissions, and mechanisms to allow more predictable exit pathways. The relatively sudden closures of the Hazelwood power station is an example of how not to manage the transition. </p>
<p>Wholesale prices jumped up because the replacement investment takes time, and governments scrambled to provide support to the local community after the fact. </p>
<p>We can do much better. Australia is <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-not-on-track-to-reach-2030-paris-target-but-the-potential-is-there-102725">well placed</a> for a future built on renewable energy. The change can be painful if it’s not well managed, but the future looks bright.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-not-on-track-to-reach-2030-paris-target-but-the-potential-is-there-102725">Australia is not on track to reach 2030 Paris target (but the potential is there)</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Jotzo leads various externally funded research projects at ANU. He has no conflict of interest with regard to the issues discussed in this article. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Salim Mazouz receives funding from various organisation in his role as Principal at the consultancy NCEconomics. He has no conflict of interest with regard to the issues discussed in this article.</span></em></p>An international report has found there’s no future for Australia’s coal exports.Frank Jotzo, Director, Centre for Climate Economics and Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversitySalim Mazouz, Research Manager, Crawford School of Public Policy; and Principal at NCEconomics, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/742582017-03-30T19:17:14Z2017-03-30T19:17:14ZTurning Hazelwood’s empty coal mine into a lake could help heal mining towns<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/161968/original/image-20170322-31219-g1q5ol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Hazelwood mine will fill with water once it's closed.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Country Fire Authority</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Hazelwood coal mine and power plant has employed generations of families in Victoria’s Latrobe Valley since the end of the second world war. With the mine to close at the end of March 2017, hundreds of local residents face unemployment. When the mining stops, <a href="http://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/file_uploads/11172_HAZ_MFIReport-2015_16-Volume4_FA_LR_15B0_pQfGZRfC.pdf">the pit at Hazelwood will eventually become a “pit lake”</a> as it fills with groundwater. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/hazelwood-coal-mine-in-the-latrobe-valley-could-become-a-lake-after-mining-ceases-20160930-grsh68.html">Several options</a> are on the table for the Hazelwood lake, and questions have been raised about the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/hazelwood-owners-facing-unprecedented-743-million-rehab-bill-20170119-gtun85.html">cost</a> of rehabilitating the mine. </p>
<p>There are thousands of pit lakes on every inhabited continent, but few have been designed for people to use for recreation. Although Australians are increasingly embracing these lakes for swimming and boating, most pit lakes are unsafe and are on private property.</p>
<h2>Germany’s brown coal mines</h2>
<p>Depending often on the local geology, pit lakes can have poor water quality and unstable banks, which pose risks to nearby communities and the environment. However, pit lakes can also be sources of income through recreation or industry, particularly for local communities after the mining stops.</p>
<p>The challenge for the residents of the Latrobe Valley (and other mining regions) is to decide how new pit lakes can benefit the local economy. The challenge for scientists is how to rehabilitate these lakes for community benefit.</p>
<p>The coal mines of former East Germany have developed into pit lakes and can provide a vision of what Australian pit lakes might become. </p>
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<span class="caption">Lusatia pit lake in the former East Germany is now an economic asset for the community.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Melanie Blanchette, Author provided</span></span>
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<p><a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11269-008-9309-x?LI=true">Lignite (brown coal) mines</a> were closed in East Germany after reunification in 1990, causing regional economic collapse and emigration. In an attempt to boost the local economy, the German government tasked a state-owned company with rapidly rehabilitating the landscape and filling the pits with river and groundwater for recreational use. </p>
<p>In 2009 the annual economic benefit of the lake district was <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11269-008-9309-x?LI=true">between €10.4 million and €16.2 million</a>. Current lake activities include swimming, boating and scuba diving. Businesses use the steep slopes of slowly filling pit lakes as vineyards, while spa hotels with lakeside boulevards cater to upmarket clientele. </p>
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<span class="caption">A vineyard at Lusatia pit lake, Germany.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Melanie Blanchette</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>Germany’s experience shows that pit lakes can lead to public benefit. However, many of these lakes require expensive ongoing active treatment, such as liming and pumping water through treatment facilities.</p>
<p>Due (in part) to the remoteness and low population density of Australia, this level of active treatment is unlikely to be economically feasible. </p>
<h2>Natural rehabilitation</h2>
<p>But active ongoing treatment isn’t the only option for improving pit lakes. Pit lakes have the capacity to <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969716305125">change over time</a> and become similar to natural lakes. </p>
<p>Pit lakes can naturally improve over decades (as seen in the <a href="https://journals.iupui.edu/index.php/ias/article/view/7601">coal-strip lakes of the US Midwest</a>), if they are exposed to <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877343516301014">“passive” treatments</a> that increase the amount of nutrients, beneficial microbes, seeds and insect larvae.</p>
<p>Every pit lake has a unique suite of biological and physical characteristics that make it easier or more difficult to rehabilitate. The US coal-strip pit lakes would be considered <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877343516301014">“easy” to rehabilitate</a> because they were shallow, had large catchments and significant amounts of organic matter. However, the lakes still took decades to recover. </p>
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<span class="caption">Each pit lake presents a unique suite of biological and physical characteristics along a sliding scale of interacting factors that increase the complexity of rehabilitation as ecosystem services become increasingly limited.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Blanchette and Lund (2016) Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>It’s hard to say exactly how Hazelwood will stack up on this scale without seeing modelling, but we can assume that its large size will create difficulties, as will any potential water quality issues. On the other hand, because the pit is still dry there’s an opportunity for pre-filling treatments that improve biodiversity and water quality. </p>
<p>For example, using heavy earthmoving equipment to “sculpt” the edge of the pit creates more natural habitats that encourage aquatic life to take hold. Careful introduction of appropriate wetland plants can enhance the system. Working with hydrologists and engineers, drainage lines connecting the pit lake to the wider catchment can provide the lake with sources of terrestrial nutrients to kickstart ecosystem development.</p>
<p>Passive processes tend to be slow. The challenge for scientists is to speed them up. However, many of the ecological processes that underpin pit lake development (as described above) are well-studied in artificial and natural lakes.</p>
<p>Turning an abandoned pit lake into a resort is not a far-fetched idea. As Germany’s mine pit projects show, communities can embrace a changing economy, and the science indicates that passive treatment systems can improve pit lakes.</p>
<p>The legacy of past mines and our demand for resources will ensure that more pit lakes will be produced. Ultimately, we will have to decide how we want to co-exist with these new lakes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74258/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melanie Blanchette receives funding from the Australian Coal Association Research Program and is a member of the International Mine Water Association.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Lund receives funding from the Australian Coal Association Research Program and the mining industry. He is a member of the International Mine Water Association. </span></em></p>What do you do with a giant pit mine once it closes? One option for the Hazelwood mine is creating a recreational lake – but there are economic and environmental issues to consider.Melanie Blanchette, Research Fellow in Freshwater Science, Edith Cowan UniversityMark Lund, Associate professor, Edith Cowan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/752172017-03-29T19:20:56Z2017-03-29T19:20:56ZHazelwood power station: from modernist icon to greenhouse pariah<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163100/original/image-20170329-1642-1asoej8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hazelwood in happier times.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Centre for Gippsland Studies</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The roar of the furnaces, the rattle of the conveyors, and the occasional whoop of a siren marked out both day and night at Hazelwood. The pungent smell of brown coal permeates the air, and the fine particles would work their way into your clothes, hair and shoes. </p>
<p>On quiet evenings you could hear it all the way over in the nearby town of Churchill, seven kilometres away. That distant hum has been a comforting one as the station produced power in all weathers, day and night, for more than five decades. For many in Churchill and the other coal towns of Victoria’s Latrobe Valley, the noise also represented continuity of employment for more than 450 workers. </p>
<p>Those old certainties are now disappeared. The eight units that make up the 1,600 megawatt power station were progressively decommissioned this week. All are now shut off ahead of Hazelwood’s official closure on March 31. While some 250 workers will remain, the distant hum has settled to a whisper.</p>
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<span class="caption">Noisy no longer: the turbine hall.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Erik Eklund</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>When the brand-new Hazelwood power station was officially opened on March 12, 1971, it represented a new and confident future for the Latrobe Valley region and the state of Victoria. Plans for this major infrastructure project were first made in 1956 and the first contracts signed in 1959. The Victorian premier, Sir Henry Bolte, spoke of the Latrobe Valley as the “<a href="http://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/71769968?searchTerm=ruhr%20bolte&searchLimits=l-decade=195%7C%7C%7Cl-state=Victoria">Ruhr of Australia</a>”.</p>
<p>The first six generating units were constructed between 1964 and 1967. The plant was eventually expanded to include another two. All eight were operational by the time of the <a href="http://www.gdfsuezau.com/media/UploadedDocuments/Hazelwood%20Closure/History/Hazelwood%20History%20Brochure.pdf">official opening in 1971</a>. </p>
<p>The station was fed by the Morwell open cut brown coal mine and was built right next door to the mine’s open-cast pit. The Morwell mine eventually grew to such mammoth proportions that the nearby Morwell River had to be <a href="http://www.gdfsuezau.com/hazelwood-closure/Hazelwood-History">diverted three times</a>. Each day, the mine fed more than 55,000 tonnes of brown coal into Hazelwood’s eight furnaces.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163137/original/image-20170329-22771-17g0tnt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163137/original/image-20170329-22771-17g0tnt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163137/original/image-20170329-22771-17g0tnt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163137/original/image-20170329-22771-17g0tnt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163137/original/image-20170329-22771-17g0tnt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163137/original/image-20170329-22771-17g0tnt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163137/original/image-20170329-22771-17g0tnt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163137/original/image-20170329-22771-17g0tnt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Alive no longer.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Erik Eklund</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Hazelwood station was planned, built and operated by the State Electricity Commission of Victoria (SECV). This government-owned body was formed in 1921 and had overseen the development of the power generation network in the Latrobe Valley. </p>
<p>The first power station at Yallourn (now decommissioned) began providing Victoria with power in 1924. It was followed by further expansion at Yallourn with newer units that still operate today. The Morwell power station and briquette factory were completed in 1959 (and shut down in 2014). The nearby Hazelwood completed the picture by 1971. </p>
<h2>A postwar coal community</h2>
<p>These power stations, along with the Morwell and Yallourn coal mines, defined the industrial heart of the Latrobe Valley as part of a postwar push to create entire communities in the region, centred on the coal industry. The SECV and then the state government had a meticulously planned vision, deciding on the location of new developments and entire new towns. By 1981 electricity generation and mining employed <a href="http://www.australianhumanitiesreview.org/archive/Issue-November-2010/tomaney&somerville.html">more than 10,000 workers</a> in an overwhelmingly male-dominated workforce.</p>
<p>It had not all been plain sailing. Completion of the Morwell power station was delayed by financial constraints and then technical problems. Coal from the Morwell mine proved to be unsuitable for briquette manufacture, so the SECV reverted to using Yallourn coal in the briquette furnaces. </p>
<p>The SECV also met with considerable local criticism over its decision to close the planned township of Yallourn so as to dig out the coal underneath it. Polluted though it was, many Yallourn residents had no desire to leave their tree-lined community.</p>
<p>The new town of Churchill, built to house the industrial workforce and their families, would accompany the Hazelwood development. Churchill was a model town located to avoid the prevailing winds from existing power stations. The town was perched on a hill with views across the Latrobe valley, the distant <a href="http://parkweb.vic.gov.au/explore/parks/baw-baw-national-park">Baw Baw ranges</a> and newly created lakes of <a href="http://www.visitlatrobevalley.com/pages/hazelwood-pondage/">Hazelwood Pondage</a>. Churchill joined other new public housing developments in nearby Moe and Morwell to house the expanding workforce.</p>
<p>Yet life in the coal heartland came with its own problems. Issues with <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-842X.1998.tb01438.x/full">air quality</a> began to become evident as early as the 1970s, while the privatisation of Hazelwood and the other power stations from 1996 led to <a href="http://www.australianhumanitiesreview.org/archive/Issue-November-2010/tomaney&somerville.html">8,000 job losses</a>. A 2004 WWF report named Hazelwood as the dirtiest power station in Australia, producing the most greenhouse emissions per megawatt of energy. </p>
<p>Hazelwood became a powerful political symbol and rallying cry for those concerned about the impact of carbon dioxide emissions on global warming. It has been credited with producing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/gallery/2017/mar/28/powering-down-the-last-days-of-hazelwood-power-station-in-pictures">5% of the nation’s power and 3% of its carbon dioxide emissions</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163136/original/image-20170329-22782-wfub0n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163136/original/image-20170329-22782-wfub0n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163136/original/image-20170329-22782-wfub0n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163136/original/image-20170329-22782-wfub0n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163136/original/image-20170329-22782-wfub0n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163136/original/image-20170329-22782-wfub0n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163136/original/image-20170329-22782-wfub0n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163136/original/image-20170329-22782-wfub0n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The symbolic face of brown coal power.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Erik Eklund</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The media image of Hazelwood today, its eight stacks standing as a visual image of greenhouse emissions and industrial pollution, was forged in the decade since the WWF report. Worse was to come when it became the site of a <a href="http://report.hazelwoodinquiry.vic.gov.au/">coalmine fire that blazed for 45 days</a> in February-March 2014. It showered Morwell with smoke and ash, creating <a href="http://hazelwoodhealthstudy.org.au/">a major public health disaster</a>. </p>
<p>The confident, modernist image of 1970s Hazelwood went up in smoke, but this image has not been forgotten by many in the Latrobe Valley who lived through it.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Federation University, through the <a href="https://federation.edu.au/faculties-and-schools/faculty-of-education-and-arts/research/fea-research-groups/centre-for-gippsland-studies/cgs-events">Centre for Gippsland Studies</a>, is planning to take part in a project to record the memories and experiences of Hazelwood workers. The author thanks Engie, who approved a site visit to research this article, and Mark Richards, a Hazelwood worker and CFMEU delegate who acted as a tour guide.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75217/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erik Eklund does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Hazelwood power station will this week fall silent after a half-century during which it went from a beacon of progress to an emblem of fossil fuel pollution.Erik Eklund, Professor of History, Federation University AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/751352017-03-28T19:05:29Z2017-03-28T19:05:29ZHazelwood closure: what it means for electricity prices and blackouts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162835/original/image-20170328-21232-mf6qb7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hazelwood's closure does not mean imminent blackouts for Victoria.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/takver/5066007535/in/photolist-8HEBxv-8HHRqC-8HEFs2-8HED1x-8HHPtS-8HHKaN-8HHMmJ-joR8y6-7Z3oqj-8HEEf4-8HEB1p-8HEBR2-8HHMLC-8HHRw9-8HEBJ6-8HHNyq-8RbKi7-8HEFeK-8HFooM-7YZamR-8HHKJ5-7Pi1Ff-8HHLiJ-8HEBDx-7Pe29D-dwiLbj-8HEFYM-8HHNLd-8HEDdr-8HEArF-8HHNo7-8HEErz-8HEAU8-8HHNQY-8HHQWb-8HEKEV-8HHMF1-8HHN6G-7Z3oFy-7Pi2c7-8HFnhp-7PhZVN-8HHMUE-8HHMbf-8HFmW8-7Pe2kB-8jf5qT-8HJuFE-7Pi1S3-8HHKfQ">Takver/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Victoria’s Hazelwood power station will be shut down this week after nearly 50 years of supplying electricity. </p>
<p>The imminent closure has led to concerns about <a href="http://www.skynews.com.au/news/politics/state/2017/03/26/joyce-warns-against-hazelwood-closure.html#sthash.dQnoP4zv.dpuf">blackouts</a>, raised most recently by Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce, and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-20/hazelwood-closure-leaves-major-energy-black-hole-prices-to-rise/8367826">rising electricity prices</a>. </p>
<p>So what does the evidence suggest? </p>
<h2>Blackouts ahead?</h2>
<p>Last week <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-warned-of-potential-unprecedented-number-of-power-shortages-posthazelwood-20170322-gv46bk.html">The Age reported</a> that Victoria is facing “72 days of possible power supply shortfalls over the next two years”. While that sounds bad, it does not mean the state is facing imminent blackouts. </p>
<p>This was based on a report from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), which is in charge of making sure that Australia’s energy markets work. </p>
<p>Every week, AEMO produces something called the <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/Datasource/Archives/Archive1092">Medium Term Projected Assessment of System Adequacy</a>. This report assesses the expected supply and demand of electricity for the next two years. </p>
<p>In a recent report, AEMO did indeed forecast a “reserve shortfall” for 72 days in Victoria in the coming two years. AEMO has actually been forecasting many days of reserve shortfall, since early November last year when Engie announced the closure of Hazelwood.</p>
<p>AEMO has also been forecasting an <a href="http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/sa-power-crisis-state-faces-125-days-of-electricity-shortages-over-next-two-years/news-story/3229f43b1d46521dc16ebc27fc2ac952">even greater number of days of reserve shortfalls</a> in South Australia for well over a year. </p>
<p>The shortfall forecast is based on a combination of factors. This includes the amount of local energy supply, the import and export of electricity from other states, the maximum daily demand for electricity, and the “reserve requirement”. The reserve requirement is essentially “spare” capacity that can be used to maintain a reliable supply if something goes wrong.</p>
<p>If there is not enough supply to meet this requirement, there is a reserve shortfall.</p>
<p>Forecasting maximum demand is incredibly challenging and uncertain. AEMO does it by <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/Datasource/Archives/Archive770">using probabilities</a>. This gives us a measure of the probability of a particular demand forecast being exceeded in a year.</p>
<p>For example, a 10% chance would be expected to be exceeded one year in ten. A 50% chance would be expected to be exceeded one year in two. </p>
<p>To illustrate the point, <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Planning-and-forecasting/National-Electricity-Forecasting-Report">AEMO forecast</a> that demand over the past summer in Victoria had a 10% chance of exceeding 9,900 megawatts. In reality, the maximum demand was only 8,747MW. That’s not to say the forecast was wrong, but rather that it was not an exceptional (one year in ten) summer. </p>
<p>In the recent outlook, AEMO has found 72 days on which a reserve shortfall might occur. The likelihood of this happening on any one of those days is low. For a reserve shortfall to actually occur 72 times over two years is incredibly unlikely. </p>
<p>However, AEMO still plans for this possibility. Indeed, this is largely the point of producing these forecasts: signalling potential capacity shortfalls so the market and operator can respond. </p>
<h2>What will happen when Hazelwood closes?</h2>
<p>Another way of illustrating the role of Hazelwood and the effect of its closure on the broader Victorian energy system is shown below. </p>
<p>In this figure, I’ve plotted the 10% and 50% thresholds for exceeding maximum demand in the coming summer, and also the “load duration curve” for previous years. This curve shows that the periods of greatest demand are also the least common (the left side of the graph). The vast majority of demand is much lower, and the “base load” is about 4,000MW. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162510/original/image-20170326-18984-h0yeox.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162510/original/image-20170326-18984-h0yeox.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162510/original/image-20170326-18984-h0yeox.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162510/original/image-20170326-18984-h0yeox.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162510/original/image-20170326-18984-h0yeox.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162510/original/image-20170326-18984-h0yeox.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162510/original/image-20170326-18984-h0yeox.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162510/original/image-20170326-18984-h0yeox.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">† Interconnection capacity (from other states) at times of peak demand is much less than the total theoretically possible. ‡ Firm wind is about 7.5% of total rated capacity in Victoria.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I’ve also included “firm capacity” (the minimum power we know we can get) with and without Hazelwood, to the right. </p>
<p>As can be seen, there is more than enough capacity in Victoria to meet the base load. There is even enough local firm capacity to meet the peak load and reserve requirements for the one-in-two-year maximum demand event. For the one-in-ten-year event, power needs to be imported from other states to ensure secure supply at the peaks.</p>
<p>AEMO <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/Media-Centre/AEMO-reaffirms-position-on-energy-security">reaffirmed security of supply</a> in a media statement last week. As noted, Victoria and other states have available power generation resources that are not switched on or are operating at less than full capacity. This electricity can be made available to replace the power that Hazelwood supplies.</p>
<h2>What about prices?</h2>
<p>The question of what replaces Hazelwood brings us to prices. Many, <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Planning-and-forecasting/NEM-Electricity-Statement-of-Opportunities">including AEMO</a>, expect to see increased generation from currently underused power plants. These include New South Wales’ black coal power plants. Last year NSW’s black coal was used at 56% of its total capacity. Bumping up these stations’ output would also reduce NSW’s reliance on Victorian exports.</p>
<p>Reducing the capacity of brown coal will mean logically that Victoria relies on more expensive forms of generation such as black coal or gas. This is particularly so if the availability of cheap imports is limited, and more expensive local generation such as gas is needed. </p>
<p>Black coal power stations generate electricity comparatively cheaply. Even so electricity prices are <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-anatomy-of-an-energy-crisis-a-pictorial-guide-part-1-71789">already so high</a> that an increase in black coal generation may not have a dramatic impact on prices. With NSW prices averaging A$137 per megawatt hour this year, it is clear that the cost of coal is not determining electricity prices. </p>
<p>The Victorian wholesale market will also become a more <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-anatomy-of-an-energy-crisis-a-pictorial-guide-part-3-73693">concentrated market</a>. As a result, there may be more opportunities for market power to be exercised. Perhaps the recently announced <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/turnbull-calls-the-accc-over-power-prices-20170326-gv6o3q">ACCC inquiry into power prices</a> will put generators on their best behaviour.</p>
<p>Any price rise may be short-lived. The Australian Energy Market Commission, which sets the rules for the energy market, <a href="http://www.aemc.gov.au/Markets-Reviews-Advice/2016-Residential-Electricity-Price-Trends/Final/AEMC-Documents/2016-Electricity-Price-Trends-Report">has reported</a> that more renewable energy supply is expected to reduce wholesale electricity prices.</p>
<p>Hazelwood’s closure should not compromise the security of the Victorian electricity system over the next few years. This is not to say that there definitely won’t be a blackout. A <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-caused-south-australias-state-wide-blackout-66268">one-in-50-year storm</a>, a plant failure, a <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/yallourn-coal-mine-flood-worsens-20120715-224ef.html">flooded mine pit</a>, an interconnector outage – any of these events could strain the system beyond what is manageable. </p>
<p>At this stage, what ultimately happens to prices is anyone’s guess. Whatever the case, it is clear that Victoria has plenty of supply to meet the state’s base load. New capacity might be required to meet the maximum demand – and that new capacity <a href="https://theconversation.com/storage-can-replace-gas-in-our-electricity-networks-and-boost-renewables-48101">could take the form of energy storage</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75135/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dylan McConnell has received funding from the AEMC's Consumer Advocacy Panel and Energy Consumers Australia.
</span></em></p>Victoria will be able to import more electricity to make up for any shortfalls from Hazelwood power station’s closure.Dylan McConnell, Researcher at the Australian German Climate and Energy College, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/706562016-12-26T21:54:43Z2016-12-26T21:54:43Z2016, the year that was: Environment + Energy<p>If 2015 ended on a note of hope, with the successful conclusion of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465">Paris climate talks</a>, the overriding impression of 2016 is that last year’s optimism has been answered with a large reality check.</p>
<p>The Paris Agreement was meant to herald a year in which politicians would finally cut through the stalemate and start saving the planet. Instead we watched aghast as <a href="https://theconversation.com/great-barrier-reef-bleaching-would-be-almost-impossible-without-climate-change-58408">swathes of the Great Barrier Reef were killed by climate change</a>, while the political uncertainty only grew. Donald Trump completed his improbable climb to the US political summit, and Australian climate politics stayed mired in the trenches.</p>
<p>Nowhere was that more evident than in the unseemly <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-dont-know-why-south-australias-wind-farms-stopped-working-so-hold-off-on-the-blame-game-66631">blame game</a> over the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-caused-south-australias-state-wide-blackout-66268">statewide blackout</a> that plunged South Australia into darkness on a stormy night in September.</p>
<p>With fingers being pointed at the state’s reliance on wind power, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull used the incident to call for an <a href="https://theconversation.com/turnbull-uses-south-australian-blackout-to-push-for-uniformity-on-renewables-66275">end to Labor states setting their own agendas on renewable energy</a>. That was despite analysis showing that the blackout was due to <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-must-keep-the-lights-on-how-a-cyclone-was-used-to-attack-renewables-66371">22 transmission towers being knocked over</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/closing-victorias-hazelwood-power-station-is-no-threat-to-electricity-supply-66024">planned closure of Victoria’s Hazelwood power station</a> prompted more argument over <a href="https://theconversation.com/hazelwoods-closure-wont-affect-power-prices-as-much-as-you-might-think-67773">cheap brown coal versus expensive electricity</a>. The debate culminated in the Turnbull government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/turnbull-government-rules-out-an-emissions-intensity-scheme-70039">24-hour dalliance</a> with the idea of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/emissions-trading-for-electricity-is-the-sensible-way-forward-70137">emissions intensity scheme</a> for power stations (a policy that Labor <a href="https://theconversation.com/policycheck-labors-phased-emissions-trading-scheme-58496">took to July’s federal election</a>).</p>
<p>The episode was seen as a slapdown for minister Josh Frydenberg, who in July had been handed the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-environment-energy-superportfolio-can-deliver-real-action-heres-how-62771">“superportfolio” of energy and environment</a> in an overdue acknowledgement that these issues are now one and the same.</p>
<p>One of Frydenberg’s biggest tasks for 2017 will be handling the planned review of climate policy. Figures <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/dec/22/australias-greenhouse-gas-emissions-are-rising-official-figures-show">released quietly before Christmas</a> underline the fact that Australia is <a href="https://theconversation.com/direct-action-not-giving-us-bang-for-our-buck-on-climate-change-59308">on course to miss the government’s 2030 emissions target</a> of 26-28% below 2005 levels. This year’s events proved that the electricity sector, the biggest source of emissions, is in <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-energy-sector-is-in-critical-need-of-reform-61802">serious need of reform</a>.</p>
<p>In the states, Queensland continued to navigate a legal course for the controversial <a href="https://theconversation.com/carmichael-mine-jumps-another-legal-hurdle-but-litigants-are-making-headway-69423">Carmichael coal mine</a>, while SA Premier Jay Weatherill <a href="https://theconversation.com/sa-doesnt-need-a-nuclear-plebiscite-weatherill-just-needs-to-make-a-decision-68819">suggested a plebiscite</a> to decide whether the state should build an international nuclear waste dump.</p>
<p>In fact, one of the year’s quietest periods for environmental policy was during the federal election campaign itself – neither <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sound-of-silence-why-has-the-environment-vanished-from-election-politics-59658">climate</a> nor <a href="https://theconversation.com/nature-is-neglected-in-this-election-campaign-at-its-and-our-own-peril-56445">conservation</a> rated more than the briefest of mentions.</p>
<h2>Death comes to the reef</h2>
<p>The year’s biggest single environmental story was the <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-pictures-a-close-up-look-at-the-great-barrier-reefs-bleaching-57495">unprecedented coral bleaching that hit the Great Barrier Reef</a> in March and April. The bleaching affected <a href="https://theconversation.com/coral-bleaching-taskforce-more-than-1-000-km-of-the-great-barrier-reef-has-bleached-57282">more than 1,000km of the reef</a> and prompted a storm of media reports – some <a href="https://theconversation.com/great-barrier-reef-bleaching-stats-are-bad-enough-without-media-misreporting-58283">more accurate than others</a>. </p>
<p>Months later, the damage is clear: <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-much-coral-has-died-in-the-great-barrier-reefs-worst-bleaching-event-69494">two-thirds of corals on the reef’s northern stretches are dead</a>. Researchers are <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-the-great-barrier-reef-recover-from-its-worst-ever-bleaching-67063">watching anxiously to see how much will bounce back</a>.</p>
<p>Elsewhere on the high seas, there was better news for environmentalists. Oil giant BP <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-11/bp-withdraws-from-great-australian-bight-drilling/7921956">cancelled plans to drill in the Great Australian Bight</a>, and Australia’s Macquarie Island research station <a href="https://theconversation.com/disruption-over-macquarie-island-calls-for-some-clever-antarctic-thinking-65558">earned a reprieve</a> after being slated for closure by the government.</p>
<p>In October, nations signed off on creating the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-china-came-in-from-the-cold-to-help-set-up-antarcticas-vast-new-marine-park-67911">world’s biggest marine park</a> in the Southern Ocean around Antarctica. Meanwhile, Australia had a win (of sorts) in its battle with Japan’s whaling program, successfully <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-new-international-whaling-resolution-will-do-little-to-stop-japan-killing-whales-67854">sponsoring a resolution</a> to provide greater oversight of “scientific” whaling. </p>
<p>In reality, however, the voluntary measure will have little effect on Japan’s activities. Perhaps it’s time to <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-a-less-confrontational-approach-to-whaling-more-whales-could-be-saved-68064">admit that whaling cannot be stopped altogether</a>, and maybe even try some “<a href="https://theconversation.com/could-whale-poo-diplomacy-help-bring-an-end-to-whaling-69154">whale poo diplomacy</a>” instead.</p>
<h2>Talking Trump</h2>
<p>Speaking of diplomacy, when delegates <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-climate-talks-move-to-marrakesh-heres-what-they-need-to-achieve-67487">arrived at November’s UN climate summit in Marrakech</a>, they were expecting to begin putting flesh on the bones of the previous year’s Paris Agreement. This <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-climate-agreement-enters-into-force-international-experts-respond-68124">came into force</a> with record speed just 11 months after it was signed.</p>
<p>But on its third day the summit was hit by a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-view-from-marrakech-climate-talks-are-battling-through-a-trump-tsunami-68597">Trump tsunami</a>” as the surprise US election result dawned. Perhaps understandably, the conference morphed into a <a href="https://theconversation.com/marrakech-climate-talks-produced-defiance-towards-trump-but-little-else-69056">show of defiance</a> towards the new president-elect.</p>
<p>It is still <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/22/donald-trump-paris-climate-deal-change-open-mind">unclear</a> whether Trump will follow through on his threat to withdraw from the Paris deal. For those keen to see global climate action continue, perhaps the most optimistic view is that Trump will be <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-politician-can-singlehandedly-bring-back-coal-not-even-donald-trump-69424">unable to revive the coal economy singlehanded</a>, and that if the United States does relinquish the climate leadership it has belatedly shown under President Barack Obama, China will be <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-china-and-europe-should-form-the-worlds-most-powerful-climate-bloc-69211">more than willing to step up</a>.</p>
<h2>Heat and ice</h2>
<p>While the political hot air flowed, the climate records kept tumbling. 2016 is set to be confirmed as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/world-set-for-hottest-year-on-record-world-meteorological-organization-68567">hottest year ever recorded</a>, although September did bring an end to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/september-brought-the-worlds-record-breaking-hot-streak-to-an-end-but-dont-chill-out-67381">streak of 16 consecutive record-setting months</a>.</p>
<p>In May, the southern hemisphere joined the north in <a href="https://theconversation.com/southern-hemisphere-joins-north-in-breaching-carbon-dioxide-milestone-59260">passing the symbolic milestone</a> of 400 parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. But the good news is that global emissions seem, at long last, to have <a href="https://theconversation.com/fossil-fuel-emissions-have-stalled-global-carbon-budget-2016-68568">plateaued</a> – although the picture is less rosy when it comes to <a href="https://theconversation.com/methane-from-food-production-might-be-the-next-wildcard-in-climate-change-69894">methane emissions</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/el-nino-is-over-but-has-left-its-mark-across-the-world-59823">El Niño came to an end</a>, after helping to push Australia’s summer sea temperatures to <a href="https://theconversation.com/this-summers-sea-temperatures-were-the-hottest-on-record-for-australia-heres-why-56906">record levels</a>. We learned that rising seas have <a href="https://theconversation.com/sea-level-rise-has-claimed-five-whole-islands-in-the-pacific-first-scientific-evidence-58511">claimed five entire Pacific islands</a>, while the Arctic ice is at record low levels, driven by a <a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-the-arctics-freakishly-warm-winter-is-due-to-humans-climate-influence-70648">freak bout of human-induced warm weather</a>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Earth’s last remaining wild places are being <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-global-road-building-explosion-is-shattering-nature-70489">crisscrossed by roads</a>, although there was some rare good news in the only place on Earth where tigers, rhinos, orangutans and elephants all live together – a treasured Indonesian forest now <a href="https://theconversation.com/good-news-for-the-only-place-on-earth-where-tigers-rhinos-orangutans-and-elephants-live-together-58777">saved from logging</a>.</p>
<p>If all that wasn’t enough, we were told that we are <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-official-welcome-to-the-anthropocene-epoch-but-who-gets-to-decide-its-here-57113">officially living in the Anthropocene Epoch</a>, courtesy of nuclear weapons testing – which came to Australia <a href="https://theconversation.com/sixty-years-on-the-maralinga-bomb-tests-remind-us-not-to-put-security-over-safety-62441">60 years ago this year</a>.</p>
<h2>A more nature-loving 2017?</h2>
<p>Having polished off your <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-pick-an-ethically-raised-ham-this-christmas-69640">ethically raised Christmas ham</a>, perhaps now is the time to resolve to engage a bit more with the natural world in 2017. </p>
<p>While you might not be able to <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-im-spending-three-months-sailing-right-around-antarctica-for-science-67782">sail a scientific voyage around Antarctica</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/there-are-14-wild-orange-bellied-parrots-left-this-summer-is-our-last-chance-to-save-them-69274">climb trees to save orange-bellied parrots</a>, or <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-i-discovered-one-of-the-greatest-wildlife-gatherings-on-earth-in-far-north-queensland-66904">discover previously unknown wild gatherings of animals</a>, there are things you can do at home.</p>
<p>You might decide to join in a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-rise-of-citizen-science-is-great-news-for-our-native-wildlife-63866">citizen science program</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/gardening-series-31530">tend your garden</a>, or get to know some of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/hidden-housemates-24843">fascinating critters who share your home</a>.</p>
<p>You could even get closer to nature while doing the most 2016 thing possible: <a href="https://theconversation.com/pokecology-people-will-never-put-down-their-phones-but-games-can-get-them-focused-on-nature-63105">playing Pokémon GO</a>.</p>
<p>So if the past year in environmental news has left you feeling despondent, look on the bright side – at least you don’t have <a href="https://theconversation.com/hidden-housemates-australias-huge-and-hairy-huntsman-spiders-55017">a ball of 150 huntsman spiders</a> living in your house … or do you?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70656/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
In a year of coral bleaching, power blackouts, electricity arguments and Donald Trump, 2016 made the previous year’s climate of environmental optimism rather difficult to maintain.Michael Hopkin, Deputy Chief of Staff, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/704022016-12-14T19:04:21Z2016-12-14T19:04:21ZRising power bills signal the end of an era for Australia’s electricity grid<p>Electricity bills are set to rise further for households, according to a <a href="http://www.aemc.gov.au/Markets-Reviews-Advice/2016-Residential-Electricity-Price-Trends">report from the Australian Energy Markets Commission</a> (AEMC). </p>
<p>The report, released this week to coincide with the December meeting of the COAG Energy Council, <a href="http://www.aemc.gov.au/News-Center/What-s-New/Announcements/Electricity-prices-rising-with-variation-between-r">forecasts that electricity bills</a> will increase by an average of A$78 by 2018 in the five eastern states and the ACT. Together these comprise the National Electricity Market (NEM). </p>
<p>The AEMC has prepared these three-year reports each year since 2010. But no report has received as much <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-14/electricity-bills-to-rise-by-78-dollars-from-mid-next-year/8118012">publicity</a> as this one. This is largely because the latest report comes hard on the heels of the announcement that <a href="https://theconversation.com/closing-victorias-hazelwood-power-station-is-no-threat-to-electricity-supply-66024">Victoria’s Hazelwood power station is to close</a> – the largest power station closure ever in Australia. </p>
<p>It also follows the release of a <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/97a4f50c-24ac-4fe5-b3e5-5f93066543a4/files/independent-review-national-elec-market-prelim.pdf">specially commissioned report</a> by Chief Scientist Alan Finkel that opens with the words: “The physical electricity system is undergoing its greatest transition since Nikola Tesla and Thomas Edison clashed in the War of the Currents in the early 1890s.” </p>
<p>So what does the latest report really say? </p>
<h2>What’s the forecast?</h2>
<p>The AEMC’s 2016 residential price report projects moderate increases in the average price paid by households in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and the ACT over the next two years, and moderate decreases in Queensland and Tasmania. </p>
<p>These overall movements result from the interaction of the three major cost components of the total cost of electricity supply. </p>
<p>The three components are:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the regulated network costs (transmission and distribution)</p></li>
<li><p>what the AEMC calls environmental costs (the large and small renewable energy targets, together with various state- and territory-specific programs), which are also set by regulation</p></li>
<li><p>what the AEMC calls competitive market costs, comprising wholesale market cost and retail margin.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>This approach to estimating total prices was established in the 2010 report and has been fundamentally unchanged ever since. The sophistication and detail of the analysis have, however, increased considerably over the years.</p>
<p>The biggest factor affecting the prices projected in the 2016 report is the planned closure of Hazelwood next March. This is in addition to last May’s closure of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/goodbye-northern-lights-hello-sunlight-58219">Northern power station in SA</a>. These closures are particularly important for Victoria, SA and Tasmania.</p>
<h2>State of the states</h2>
<p>In Victoria, Tasmania and SA, a combination of Victorian brown coal and Tasmanian hydro and wind supplies most electricity traded in the wholesale market. </p>
<p>Gas is important in SA, but its cost has greatly increased because of higher gas wholesale prices. Demand peaks are supplied by gas plants and Snowy hydro. </p>
<p>Australia currently has more electricity capacity than demand. But the power station closures shift this much closer to balanced supply and demand. Consequently, wholesale prices are expected to increase and flow through to retail prices in Victoria and SA. </p>
<p>In Tasmania, large decreases in network costs, based on regulatory determinations already made by the Australian Energy Regulator, are expected to more than offset wholesale prices increases. Network costs in the other two states are expected to change little.</p>
<p>The Hazelwood closure will also affect NSW prices. The first consequence of reduced generation in Victoria will be a reduction, or even reversal, of the current strong overall south-to-north energy flow on the Victoria-NSW interconnection. </p>
<p>Low-cost brown coal generators in Victoria are often the marginal source of supply in the NSW market. This puts downward pressure on NSW wholesale prices (and also leaves significant spare coal-fired capacity in NSW for much of the time).</p>
<p>The removal of spare capacity in Victoria will mean that nearly all NSW supply will be sourced from higher-cost black coal generators within NSW. Spare capacity will be reduced and wholesale prices will therefore tend to increase.</p>
<p>Over the past couple of years Queensland has been the only state where demand for electricity has grown substantially (mainly because of electricity use in coal seam gasfields). That growth is now slowing and it is expected that the balance of supply and demand will remain much as it is now. Consequently, wholesale prices will remain relatively unchanged.</p>
<p>Network costs are also expected to stay roughly constant in both NSW and Queensland. The overall outcome projected by the AEMC is therefore a modest price increase in NSW and a small decrease in Queensland.</p>
<h2>End of an era?</h2>
<p>Stepping back from this state-by-state picture, what we see is the approaching end of an era of generation oversupply in the NEM, stretching back to the early 1990s.</p>
<p>This situation was originally caused by too many power stations being commissioned in the 1980s in NSW and Victoria. It was then prolonged by three factors:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the extension of the operating life of older coal-fired power stations well beyond that anticipated when they were built</p></li>
<li><p>the reduction and near-cessation of growth in demand for electricity</p></li>
<li><p>the construction of new renewable generation (mainly wind power) under the Renewable Energy Target (RET) legislation.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>For most of this period, average wholesale prices in this oversupplied market have been well below the cost of new power stations. They are now expected to move gradually up towards that replacement cost level, when it will be economic to add more power stations to the market.</p>
<p>It is ironic that conservative voices who blame the RET for forcing coal-fired power stations to close are often the same voices who claim that higher electricity prices are forcing businesses to close and contributing to the cessation of demand growth.</p>
<p>If they had their way and there was no wind generation, and the Kurri Kurri and Point Henry aluminium smelters had not closed, then demand would have outstripped supply some years ago. </p>
<p>This would allow higher-cost power stations to be competitive, and wholesale prices would have already been at or above the levels projected by the AEMC in this report. </p>
<p>And what would have been the lowest-cost generation technology available (which hasn’t been competitive in the over-supplied market until now)? Based on the most recent data, <a href="http://www.co2crc.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/LCOE_Report_final_web.pdf">probably wind</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70402/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hugh Saddler is a member of the Board of The Climate Institute</span></em></p>Electricity bills are set to rise further for households. But it’s just because power stations are closing.Hugh Saddler, Honorary Associate Professor, Centre for Climate Economics and Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/681432016-11-04T02:07:06Z2016-11-04T02:07:06ZHazelwood’s closure calls for a rethink on Latrobe Valley solutions<p>The announcement of the closure of Hazelwood power station in 2017 adds further complexity to an uncertain future facing the Latrobe Valley community. </p>
<p>Owners Engie and Mitsui <a href="http://www.gdfsuezau.com/media/UploadedDocuments/News/Hazelwood%20Clousure/Hazelwood%20closure%20-%20Media%20release.pdf">said of the 750 employees</a> at the power station, 250 will remain between 2017 and 2023 to manage the site rehabilitation, while the remaining workers will receive a redundancy package. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.premier.vic.gov.au/labor-government-to-support-hazelwood-workers/">The state government has pledged a package</a> of A$22 million for “personalised support” for workers which includes TAFE training, financial counselling and other forms of support and a further A$20 million to set up a Latrobe Valley Authority to lead the economic transition. In addition to this <a href="http://www.premier.vic.gov.au/economic-growth-zone-to-boost-latrobe-valley-business/">A$224 million will go towards</a> the establishment of a “economic growth zone”. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://ministers.employment.gov.au/cash/government-support-hazelwood-workers">federal government is offering</a> A$43 million including A$3 million for active assistance, retraining, and other forms of financial services. </p>
<p>Adversity is not new to this Victorian region. Headed by the towns of Moe, Morwell and Traralgon, this one-time thriving energy generating region has experienced continual power job losses since the 1980s. And despite continued government support, the Latrobe Valley’s economic decline and higher than state average unemployment is yet to be halted.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-five-pillar-economy-mining-40701">Fluctuating demand</a> for mining exports and reductions in manufacturing output across Australia require regional areas like the Latrobe Valley to consider their options. A <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264253476-en">2016 OECD report</a> states that Australia has a relatively strong capacity to provide new jobs for redundant workers, citing examples of 80% re-employment within two years.</p>
<p>But does this experience hold for regional locations? Looking back, <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/DocumentStore.ashx?id=378f4515-63e8-4af4-9e4a-910de9a3fbdf">a 2001 Monash University report</a> showed that structural changes to the power industry saw the Latrobe Valley suffer from a loss of almost 10% of its residents, sustained withdrawals from the labour force and unfavourable conditions for local businesses.</p>
<p>Recovery has been slow. Within the Latrobe Valley community, the challenges of reversing economic decline have been exacerbated by recent events such as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-hazelwood-mine-disaster-could-easily-have-been-avoided-31335">Hazelwood Mine fire</a> and the impact of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/milk-price-cuts-reflect-the-reality-of-sweeping-changes-in-global-dairy-market-59251">milk price downturn</a> on the dairy industry. The power station closure had been <a href="http://www.afr.com/business/energy/french-energy-giant-engie-mulls-closure-of-hazelwood-power-station-20160525-gp426a">foreshadowed for some time</a> and further job losses from the power industry will add to community concerns. </p>
<p>There is an emerging gulf in living standards between country and city-based residents. For example, according to a <a href="http://www.dtpli.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0014/223052/Change_and_disadvantage_in_regional_Victoria_overview.pdf">2011 state government report</a>, regional Victoria is relatively disadvantaged in several ways including lower educational participation and workforce skill levels, when compared to metropolitan Melbourne. In this same report, the Latrobe Valley towns of Moe and Morwell are named among the most disadvantaged localities in regional Victoria. </p>
<p>Those working in the power industry represent <a href="http://www.committeeforgippsland.com.au/docs/7108%20Committee%20for%20Gippsland%20-%202016%20Booklet.pdf">nearly 10% of the Latrobe Valley workforce</a> and the announced job losses may add to an unemployment rate, <a href="http://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/EmploymentData/EasternVictoria/LatrobeValley">currently standing at 7%</a>. </p>
<p>The immediate focus must be on the welfare for affected employees and their families. In the longer term, this event could be the trigger for new opportunities to revitalise the Latrobe Valley’s economic outlook. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.communityeconomies.org/site/assets/media/old%20website%20pdfs/Papers/On%20community%20economies/Alternative%20Pathways%20to%20Community%20and%20Economic%20Development.pdf">Alternative pathways for economic and community development</a> have been on the agenda for the Latrobe Valley at least since privatisation of the power industry in the 1990s. These include a future economic strategy that supports a more diversified economy. </p>
<p>Lack of real community consultation and engagement has meant that <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/29455676_Alternative_Pathways_to_Community_and_Economic_Development_The_Latrobe_Valley_Community_Partnering_Project">workers perhaps haven’t felt empowered</a> to take up other opportunities. </p>
<p>There are some alternatives that could be taken advantage of, such as new service and manufacturing industries and others that build on the Latrobe Valley’s natural advantages in agriculture and scenic locations. Ideally, these initiatives require focused retraining or other forms of support for displaced workers. But such short-term measures are, of course, obvious. </p>
<p>With the closure of the power station, there will ongoing work for some time as the site moves from a productive mine to rehabilitated site. However there are significant issues that have to be considered first, such as the future use and stabilisation of the site prior to undertaking major works. </p>
<p>Whatever the future of the Hazelwood site, it’s critical that this is determined in consultation with the community to provide access to facilities and services of benefit to local residents. Importantly, as rehabilitation of the site will be a long-term process, it will be necessary that the community contributes both to the vision and the progress toward this for it to succeed.</p>
<p>State and federal governments may look also to other communities that have experienced industrial plant closures internationally to inform their plans and actions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68143/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Duffy has participated in research projects funded by Regional Development Victoria, VicHealth and the Department of Health and Human Services.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Damian Morgan has participated in research projects funded by Regional Development Victoria, Regional Development Australia and the Environment Protection Authority Victoria.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jessica Reeves does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Past attempts to help Latrobe Valley workers weather economic changes haven’t made a difference, so the closure of Hazelwood presents a challenge.Michelle Duffy, Senior Lecturer, Humanities and Social Sciences, Federation University AustraliaDamian Morgan, Senior Lecturer in Management, Federation University AustraliaJessica Reeves, Senior Lecturer, Environmental Science, Federation University AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/677732016-10-30T19:09:38Z2016-10-30T19:09:38ZHazelwood’s closure won’t affect power prices as much as you might think<p>The <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-28/no-formal-decision-taken-to-close-hazelwood-frydenberg/7973752">ongoing uncertainty</a> over the future of the Hazelwood power station in Victoria’s Latrobe Valley has raised the prospect that the ageing generator will be shut down in the near future. </p>
<p>The power station has a nameplate capacity of 1.6 gigawatts, which represents 22% of the coal-fired generation capacity in Victoria, and 6% of the total coal-fired capacity in Victoria, Queensland and New South Wales combined (South Australia no longer has an operating coal-fired power station).</p>
<p>Coal-fired power stations provide the bulk of the “baseload” electricity requirements in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/national-electricity-market-2810">National Electricity Market (NEM)</a>. Baseload refers to generation that meets the minimum demand, and from an economic point of view this is best delivered by generation that produces constant, reliable output. Brown coal provides the cheapest baseload power – or at least, it does if we’re prepared to ignore factors such as the long-term costs of climate change.</p>
<p>So if Hazelwood departs the market, as one of the cheapest generators in the NEM, it seems logical that electricity prices will increase. The extent of that increase will depend on what takes up the slack. So what can we expect to happen?</p>
<h2>On the decline</h2>
<p>Until 2007, average electricity demand in the NEM had increased every year since the grid was first built. But after that demand started to fall. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-electricity-consumption-decreasing-in-australia-20998">reasons are varied</a>, including increasing takeup of rooftop solar panels, improved efficiency of lighting and appliances, and reductions in industrial demand. </p>
<p>Looking at July (when baseload electricity demand is typically at its highest), the average demand has fallen from 25.4GW in July 2007 to 22.9GW in July 2016, a reduction of 2.5GW.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143632/original/image-20161028-15816-d4jp9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143632/original/image-20161028-15816-d4jp9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143632/original/image-20161028-15816-d4jp9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143632/original/image-20161028-15816-d4jp9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143632/original/image-20161028-15816-d4jp9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143632/original/image-20161028-15816-d4jp9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143632/original/image-20161028-15816-d4jp9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143632/original/image-20161028-15816-d4jp9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The rise and fall in July baseload demand. Light blue: peak demand; red: average demand; purple: minimum demand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AEMO</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But there has also been significant retirement of coal-fired generation capacity in Australia since 2010, driven partly by the retirement of old power plants, and partly by the costs associated with the carbon price, which ran from 2012 to 2014. </p>
<p>The retirees include Morwell and Anglesea in Victoria (0.2GW), Playford B and Northern in South Australia (0.8GW), and most significantly Redbank, Wallerawang and Munmorah in New South Wales (2.5 GW). This adds up to a total of 3.5GW of coal-fired capacity shut down this decade.</p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lSiH8/2/" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="600"></iframe>
<p>This means that more capacity has been retired than the baseload demand has decreased. So in theory, the retirement of another baseload power station at Hazelwood would result in even more tightening of the balance between supply and demand. </p>
<p>But if we look at the current average capacity factors of the remaining coal-fired power stations we can see that many of the larger ones, in NSW in particular, are running at very modest capacities. For example, Liddell has been running at 43% of its total capacity for the past 12 months, and Eraring at 59%. Across the NEM the average is 65%. </p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Runm8/1/" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="490"></iframe>
<p>Now, of course some of this generation is used when the demand increases during particularly hot or cold weather, but most of this “peaking” demand is supplied by hydro and gas. So while baseload is not the only way to meet demand in the energy system, there nevertheless seems to be plenty of baseload available.</p>
<p>Why are coal-fired stations running at such low levels? One reason is that while demand has been falling, there has also been an extra 4GW of wind power capacity added to the grid. Meanwhile, several new plants were commissioned in the years leading up to the peak in demand, with the expectation that demand would continue to rise. These plants include <a href="http://www.csenergy.com.au/content-(19)-callide.htm">Callide C</a>, <a href="http://www.power-technology.com/projects/millmerran_coal/">Millmerran</a> and <a href="http://www.csenergy.com.au/content-(42)-kogan_creek.htm">Kogan Creek</a>, which add up to 2.7GW.</p>
<p>If Hazelwood shuts down, it would be reasonable to expect that the remaining coal-fired generators in the grid will take up the slack. The generators in Victoria are running at relatively high capacity factors, so we might expect that NSW generators will increase their output. The interconnector between Victoria and NSW currently sends Victorian electricity into NSW, but it can reverse that flow if required.</p>
<p>One reason why Victorian power stations are running at higher capacities is because they are cheaper to run. ACIL Tasman figures from 2010 show short-run marginal cost (the cost to run a power station in addition to fixed costs) in Victoria is around A$2-5 per megawatt hour, compared with A$12-17 per MWh in NSW.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143794/original/image-20161030-15807-slkgtt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143794/original/image-20161030-15807-slkgtt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143794/original/image-20161030-15807-slkgtt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143794/original/image-20161030-15807-slkgtt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143794/original/image-20161030-15807-slkgtt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143794/original/image-20161030-15807-slkgtt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143794/original/image-20161030-15807-slkgtt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143794/original/image-20161030-15807-slkgtt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Short-run marginal cost (SRMC) of power from various power stations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ACIL Tasman 2009</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Predicting what will happen to electricity prices in the future is harder than picking the winner of the Melbourne Cup, so making an exact price forecast is tricky. But if the hole left by Hazelwood’s retirement is filled by the excess capacity in NSW, then all things being equal the impacts on the overall costs of running the system would be modest.</p>
<p>Still, the NEM is very complex. Generators (especially in Victoria) are privately owned and will adjust their market strategies to take advantage of the tightening of supply. Meanwhile, the growing market share of renewables, the potential for electricity demand to begin rising once again, and the possibility of further coal closures, all mean that the full impact of the retreat of coal-fired power is yet to be seen.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67773/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Dargaville has received funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency</span></em></p>The potential shutdown of Victoria’s Hazelwood power station could leave a large gap in coal-fired baseload generation. But other coal power stations have plenty of spare capacity to fill the gap.Roger Dargaville, Deputy Director, Melbourne Energy Institute, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/555772016-03-16T03:55:55Z2016-03-16T03:55:55ZThe two-year wait for Hazelwood mine fire charges shows the system needs to change<p>Victoria’s Environmental Protection Authority has <a href="http://www.epa.vic.gov.au/about-us/news-centre/news-and-updates/news/2016/march/15/charges-laid-following-epa-investigation-into-hazelwood-mine-fire">brought charges against four companies</a> over the <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-coal-fire-poses-a-rare-challenge-for-firefighting-23698">Hazelwood coal mine fire</a>, which burned for 45 days in February and March 2014, blanketing the nearby town of Morwell in smoke.</p>
<p>The charges allege that the pollution from the fire broke environmental laws by making the air:</p>
<blockquote>
<ul>
<li>noxious or poisonous or offensive to the senses of human beings;</li>
<li>harmful or potentially harmful to the health, welfare, safety or property of human beings;</li>
<li>detrimental to any beneficial use made of the atmosphere.</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
<p>The charges follow a two-year investigation featuring <a href="http://hazelwoodinquiry.vic.gov.au/">several inquiries</a> into the fire, including a <a href="http://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/file_uploads/10826_HAZ_Hazelwood_Mine_Fire_Inquiry_Report_2015_16_Volume_II_____Term_of_Reference_6_LoRes_58CA_4NfZvjW2.pdf">report</a> which concluded that the blaze probably contributed to deaths in the community. </p>
<p>The mine’s owner is already facing <a href="http://www.worksafenews.com.au/component/k2/item/473-hazelwood-power-corporation-charged.html">charges from Worksafe Victoria</a>, which it says it <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-04/hazelwood-mine-operator-charged-over-devastating-2014-blaze/7138378">will defend</a>. It is majority-owned by the power multinational GDF Suez (known internationally as <a href="http://www.engie.com/en/journalists/press-releases/gdf-suez-becomes-engie/">Engie</a>). </p>
<p>Some, including Victoria’s environment minister Lisa Neville, have <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/victorian-environment-minister-lisa-neville-hits-out-at-epa-over-hazelwood-charges-delay-20160204-gmli2v.html">raised questions</a> over why it has taken so long for the EPA to lay its own charges. This chimes with our ongoing research, which indicates that Australian citizens and campaign groups have less power to bring environmental prosecutions than in other comparable countries.</p>
<h2>Compare and contrast</h2>
<p>We compared the situation in Australia with an Italian case involving another Engie subsidiary, Tirreno Power. In 2014, while Hazelwood was burning, Tirreno’s coal-fired power plant in Vado Ligure, Italy, was <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/hazelwood-owner-told-to-shut-italian-coal-plant-blamed-for-deaths-18375">seized and shut down</a> in response to <a href="http://www.penalecontemporaneo.it/upload/1399222800Trib.%20Savona%20-%20decreto%20sequestro%20Tirreno%20Power.pdf">judicial findings</a> that the company had violated its environmental conditions, causing hundreds of deaths and thousands of illnesses as a result of the facility’s emissions.</p>
<p>Unlike at Hazelwood, there was no single disaster such as a fire, but rather a realisation of the damage being done by chronic pollution.</p>
<p>In Italy, not only is environmental protection improving under the guidance of the European Union, but citizens also have their own systems to report potential violations, balancing to some degree the rights of corporations against those of other parties. In the Tirreno case, the campaign group <a href="http://www.internazionale.it/reportage/2015/11/07/vado-ligure-carbone-inquinamento">Rete Savonese Fermiamo il Carbone</a> (Savonese Stop the Coal Network) was instrumental in raising the issue and ultimately securing a victory for local citizens.</p>
<p>Victorian state laws have some similar provisions, particularly under the <a href="http://www.legislation.vic.gov.au/domino/web_notes/ldms/pubstatbook.nsf/f932b66241ecf1b7ca256e92000e23be/750e0d9e0b2b387fca256f71001fa7be/$file/04-107a.pdf">Occupational Health and Safety Act</a>. If a citizen feels that an incident has breached health and safety laws and authorities do not prosecute within six months, they can make a written request to <a href="http://www.worksafe.vic.gov.au/">Worksafe Victoria</a> to prosecute. </p>
<p>This is probably how Worksafe’s recent action against GDF Suez came about about. Acting on behalf of campaign group <a href="http://www.votv.org.au/">Voices of the Valley</a>, Environmental Justice Australia <a href="https://envirojustice.org.au/blog/worksafe-to-prosecute-hazelwood-power-corp-over-mine-fire">asked Worksafe to pursue legal action</a>.</p>
<p>But similar provisions do not exist under Victoria’s <a href="http://www.epa.vic.gov.au/about-us/legislation/acts-administered-by-epa">environmental laws</a>, which date back to 1970. Only the EPA can bring charges, but if it chooses not to, there is no way for citizens to ask the authority to reconsider.</p>
<h2>Citizens’ rights</h2>
<p>In some ways this is rather startling. It begs the question of who will uphold environmental standards if the regulator chooses to look the other way. It is little wonder that citizens are resorting to <a href="https://newmatilda.com/2016/02/09/climate-angels-santos-csg/">protest</a> and <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/comment/coal-marketing-should-come-with-a-health-warning-20160309-gnegkv.html">media pressure</a> to be heard.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, there are worrying signs that corporations are being given special privilege on account of their role as drivers of economic development. This includes mining companies who, for example, have until recently been relatively free simply to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-19/taxpayers-may-foot-bill-for-mine-rehabilitation/6787954">abandon mines</a> once extraction has finished. Even now they only have to pay nominal rehabilitation bonds, with the result that Hazelwood is one of roughly <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-should-we-do-with-australias-50-000-abandoned-mines-18197">50,000 abandoned mine sites</a> across the country, many of which pose serious risks. The current Hazelwood Mine Fire Inquiry report on mine rehabilitation at the site was due March 15, but <a href="http://hazelwoodinquiry.vic.gov.au/">this has been delayed for an unspecified period or reason</a>.</p>
<p>Society’s capacity to call on governments to prosecute is clearly mediated by how the law defines <a href="http://phg.sagepub.com/content/39/1/96.short">who can take legal action</a>. The federal government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/brandis-changes-to-environmental-laws-will-defang-the-watchdogs-46267">ongoing bid to strip green groups of the right to challenge environmental approvals</a> is case in point.</p>
<p>The Hazelwood fire has exposed many environmental issues. But the slow pace of the investigation also highlights a real weakness in our legal system. Making this system more just and democratic is vital – not just to increase our capacity to respond to catastrophic events like the Hazelwood fire, but also to begin tipping the balance of power back towards society and away from corporations who must always be fully accountable.</p>
<p><em>This article was co-authored with Melanie Birkbeck, who has researched these issues as an intern at the <a href="http://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/">Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute</a> and as a postgraduate student at the University of Melbourne’s <a href="http://environment.unimelb.edu.au/">Office for Environmental Programs</a>. It is based on research supported by the Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute and RMIT Centre for Urban Research.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/55577/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lauren Rickards does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Two years after Morwell was blanketed in smoke from the Hazelwood fire, environmental charges have been laid against the mine’s operators. But the process should be more open and democratic - and quicker.Lauren Rickards, Senior Lecturer, Sustainability and Urban Planning, School of Global Urban and Social Studies; Co-leader, Climate Change and Resilience research program, Centre for Urban Studies, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/317822014-09-28T19:18:49Z2014-09-28T19:18:49ZDirty air, dodgy politics: why it’s easier to attack science than listen to Morwell fire death stats<p>I’m quite nervous about writing this. I’m going to stray from my familiar academic world into a political one, and it’s on an issue that may very well have killed several people. My reputation has already been debased in the Victorian Parliament, by Health Minister David Davis. I’m expecting more political dirt to come my way.</p>
<p>First, the back story. The issue is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/hazelwood">Hazelwood coalmine fire</a>, which burned from February 9 to March 10 this year in Victoria’s Latrobe Valley. It covered the surrounding area in thick smoke and ash, and caused <a href="https://theconversation.com/young-and-old-told-to-leave-morwell-south-amid-smoke-fears-23823">eye-wateringly high levels</a> of particulate pollution in the nearby town of Morwell. </p>
<p>The scientific literature on exposure to coal smoke is crystal clear. London’s famous 1952 smog caused <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1241789">an estimated 12,000 deaths</a>, whereas Dublin’s 1990 ban on coal has saved <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673602112815">350 lives a year</a>. </p>
<p>So it’s understandable that a group of local residents has <a href="http://www.votv.org.au">raised concerns</a> about their health after being exposed to the Hazelwood pollution. They enterprisingly collated death notices from local papers and, based on some troubling numbers, they then sought out the official numbers of monthly deaths. </p>
<p>With help from an <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-12/morwell-residents-fear-fire-was-fatal/5741170">ABC journalist</a> they passed this data on to me and I ran a statistical analysis that compared average death rates during February and March 2014 with monthly average data going back to 2009. </p>
<p>My <a href="http://eprints.qut.edu.au/76230">results</a> revealed an 89% probability that death rates were above average during this period, with an estimated 11 to 14 extra deaths.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/60132/original/vfw42zmf-1411699897.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/60132/original/vfw42zmf-1411699897.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/60132/original/vfw42zmf-1411699897.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/60132/original/vfw42zmf-1411699897.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/60132/original/vfw42zmf-1411699897.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/60132/original/vfw42zmf-1411699897.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/60132/original/vfw42zmf-1411699897.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/60132/original/vfw42zmf-1411699897.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Deaths in the Morwell area for selected months in 2014 (red line) and the preceding years. High numbers in early 2009 are probably due to extreme heat and high pollution levels from bushfires.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Disappointing response</h2>
<p>The Victorian health minister’s response to these figures has been disappointing. Rather than consider the evidence, Davis tried instead to blacken my reputation and has claimed publicly that my analysis is biased. He (or his staff) has trawled the archives of <a href="https://theconversation.com/creating-a-stink-about-traffic-pollution-7661">The Conversation</a> and <a href="http://www.hlth.qut.edu.au/ph/about/staff/barnett/cv_Adrian_Barnett.pdf">my CV</a> for ammunition. </p>
<p>First he appeared on <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/victoria/2014/09/debate-over-latrobe-valley-deaths-during-mine-fire.html?site=gippsland&program=gippsland_mornings">ABC radio</a> and stated that it was “important for the community to know” that I have “done work for a political party”, referring to my “expert review work for the Queensland Greens”. </p>
<p>Back in 2008 I read the Queensland Greens’ policy on air pollution and provided some comments. It took me about 30 minutes and I did it for free. I was happy to do it and would do it again. Hopefully I was able to update the policy with the latest scientific evidence.</p>
<p>Next, Davis used parliament to accuse me of presenting the results “in a certain way for political purposes”. He also called me an “ideologue”, a “well-known activist”, and (most bizarrely) a “<a href="http://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/images/stories/Council_Daily_Extract_Tuesday_16_September_2014_from_Book_13.pdf">climate change person</a>”.</p>
<p>To claim that I would skew an analysis to misrepresent the data is a very serious allegation and one that I wholly reject. I’ve made my analysis <a href="http://eprints.qut.edu.au/76230">publicly available</a> – if you can see where I’ve added a political bias then let me know.</p>
<h2>Political attacks on science</h2>
<p>While irritating on a personal level, this episode is yet another example of a political attack on science. Clearly, the message that the Hazelwood fire may well have killed people won’t be a popular one with the state government. Disappointingly, it seems the government has responded by trying to discredit the messenger.</p>
<p>We have seen similar attacks by politicians before, most notably against climate science, when scientists are harangued for <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-insiders-story-of-the-global-attack-on-climate-science-21972">making perfectly legitimate statistical adjustments</a> or the Bureau of Meteorology is <a href="http://theconversation.com/no-the-bureau-of-meteorology-is-not-fiddling-its-weather-data-31009">wrongly accused of fiddling data</a>.</p>
<p>Mr Davis’s logic is that because I once gave advice to a political party, all of my subsequent scientific research can be discredited. The message he is sending to scientists is: don’t ever work with political parties. </p>
<p>This is exactly the opposite of what’s currently needed. If more scientists talked to politicians, we would probably have more evidence-based policy on <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/baillieus-wind-farm-crackdown-20110829-1jig4.html">wind farms in Victoria</a>, a national <a href="http://theconversation.com/states-should-stand-up-to-the-food-industry-on-traffic-light-labelling-4504">food labelling system</a>, and <a href="http://theconversation.com/how-to-reduce-opioid-overdose-deaths-in-australia-10197">supervised drug-injection facilities</a>. </p>
<p>Sadly, these are just a few of the many areas where current government policy is completely at odds with the science.</p>
<p>Australia’s air is relatively clean. A <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2812%2961766-8/abstract">global analysis</a> ranked particulate air pollution as the 26th biggest health problem in Australasia, whereas it was the 4th biggest in East Asia. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, given that <a href="http://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2005/wp_063.aspx">1,400 Australians are killed every year by traffic pollution</a> and that there is no real safe level for air pollution, we could still deliver massive health benefits by making our air cleaner.</p>
<p>How would our politics rank on a global table of cleanliness? Wherever we sit, we can always do better. One thing our air and our politics have in common is that the cleaner they get, the better off we are.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/31782/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Barnett receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council.</span></em></p>I’m quite nervous about writing this. I’m going to stray from my familiar academic world into a political one, and it’s on an issue that may very well have killed several people. My reputation has already…Adrian Barnett, Associate Professor of Public Health, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/313752014-09-08T05:47:59Z2014-09-08T05:47:59ZThe real disaster, at Hazelwood and elsewhere, is brown coal itself<p>Fittingly for a report on a huge fire, the findings of the <a href="http://hazelwoodinquiry.vic.gov.au">Hazelwood Mine Fire Inquiry</a> act as a smokescreen for the bigger issues behind the disaster.</p>
<p>Partly because of its narrow <a href="http://hazelwoodinquiry.vic.gov.au/terms-of-reference">terms of reference</a>, the inquiry viewed the 45-day fire as an “emergency event”, similar to other previous botches and disasters. But this approach ignores the wider point: that the real risks of brown coal can’t be managed.</p>
<p>As the <a href="http://report.hazelwoodinquiry.vic.gov.au/executive-summary-2/hazelwood-mine-fire">inquiry found</a>, the disaster could have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-hazelwood-mine-disaster-could-easily-have-been-avoided-31335">easily avoided</a>. This might leave us with the impression that, with certain minor measures, such a fire will never happen again because the danger was so clearly foreseeable.</p>
<p>But “foreseeable” doesn’t always mean “preventable”. Sometimes it just means realising the risks and deciding to accept them, much like farmers are told to accept the possibility of drought as a normal business risk.</p>
<p>Where brown coal is concerned, accepting the risks means accepting crises like fires and pollution as normal – a condition, not an event. Is that really what we want?</p>
<h2>Power plays</h2>
<p>In his 1984 book <a href="http://press.princeton.edu/titles/6596.html">Normal Accidents</a>, Yale University sociologist Charles Perrow wrote that “the issue is not risk, but power”. That phrase is particularly apt for Hazelwood: a power station as well as a mine, only open by virtue of the power of vested interests. </p>
<p>Brown coal fails all tests of being a suitable energy source except for its apparent cost. Thanks to its environmental and human costs being radically discounted or completely ignored, brown coal appears delightfully cheap. </p>
<p>But of course, it is not actually cheap. As <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/comment/we-must-kill-dirty-coal-before-it-kills-us-20140902-10b8lk.html">Tim Flannery and Fiona Stanley recently pointed out</a>, residents in coalmining regions often suffer from a range of health problems, which impose huge costs on people and society alike. Studies of children show increased levels of neurotoxins like lead and mercury, alongside other pollutants.</p>
<p>Living in fear of insidious, silent toxins can be a lasting effect of a human-induced disaster. It is a characteristic of what another Yale sociologist, Kai Erikson, has called “<a href="https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/kai-erikson/a-new-species-of-trouble">a new species of trouble</a>” facing modern society. </p>
<p>As the Hazelwood inquiry shows, efforts to tame this new species include presenting the problem as one with preventable causes. As Erikson explains, there is always a moral to be drawn, always some blame to be assigned, always a story to be told.</p>
<p>But the real story of Hazelwood is much bigger than the one told in the 450-odd pages of the commission’s report. The mine is not just the setting for the story; it is its lead character, protagonist, and victim. </p>
<p>The power of the mine in the story is illustrated by the way it reframes the value of native trees in the landscape. Over numerous pages, the report describes eucalypts within a wind’s breath of the mine as a future risk to it. The rationale is that they are flammable and, if alight, may release embers that subsequently reach and ignite the mine. </p>
<p>In this way, the report not only normalises the unquestioned ongoing importance of the mine, but also places the trees at risk by raising the possibility of their removal in the name of disaster risk reduction. The mine and its vulnerability to fire cast another haze over the landscape: a risk haze that darkens our view of otherwise positive elements such as trees.</p>
<p>Native trees being benighted on account of posing a distant risk to a large polluting coal mine is deeply ironic. Not only are such trees part of the original vegetation of the land, they are flammable because fire is a natural part of the Australian landscape. But now it is fossil fuel combustion that is naturalised, while bushfire has been perverted by climate change.</p>
<h2>The hole in the story</h2>
<p>And so we come to the other gaping hole (besides the mine itself) in the inquiry’s version of the story: climate change. It’s difficult to avoid the suspicion that the report’s silence on climate change is political. If so, it wouldn’t be a surprise, but it would be damaging. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-climate-time-to-act-on-rising-heatwaves-and-fires-23927">increasing frequency of extreme fire weather</a> is mentioned in the report, but climate is not. So the fact that such “extreme” days are emerging on the back of increasing aridity, droughts and water shortages is omitted, which in turn allows water-intensive fire prevention and firefighting plans to be presented as rational.</p>
<p>Carbon is also mentioned in the report, but only in relation to the localised and short-term issue of carbon monoxide. The megatonnes of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere during the 45 days of the fire, which will go on to threaten the health of people everywhere, are ignored.</p>
<p>Allowing climate change into the story lets in a dense cloud of other issues. It radically extends our sense of which communities have been affected by the fire. It forces the story out of its neat linear sequence and into a dizzying spiral of feedbacks. </p>
<p>Above all, the Hazelwood mine fire is a feedback effect of climate change. The mine itself has become the scene of a head-on collision between the status quo and the need to adapt. </p>
<h2>A double disaster</h2>
<p>Erikson warned that those directly exposed to human-induced disasters such as the Hazelwood fire often experience a loss of sense and meaning. This experience of an altered, disordered world can transform an initial disaster into a double one. Already, the quality of life of those living in mining regions is depressed daily by the mines, which harm the environment, damage health, and entrench socioeconomic disadvantage. To quote John Lennon and Harry Nilsson, life can feel like “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Dirt_Road">trying to shovel smoke with a pitchfork in the wind</a>”.</p>
<p>In a sense, the Hazelwood mine fire and its subsequent inquiry represents a double disaster for all of us. Shaped by politics, the inquiry’s efforts to frame the fire as an emergency event similar to any other misses the point: that brown coal presents huge dangers no matter how we govern it. We have to stop hiding this new species of trouble in our midst.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/31375/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lauren Rickards has received funding in the past from what was the Climate Adaptation Flagship of CSIRO, the now discontinued Victorian Climate Change Centre for Adaptation Research and the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility.</span></em></p>Fittingly for a report on a huge fire, the findings of the Hazelwood Mine Fire Inquiry act as a smokescreen for the bigger issues behind the disaster. Partly because of its narrow terms of reference, the…Lauren Rickards, Research Fellow, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/313352014-09-07T20:37:14Z2014-09-07T20:37:14ZThe Hazelwood mine disaster could easily have been avoided<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-coal-fire-poses-a-rare-challenge-for-firefighting-23698">Hazelwood coalmine fire</a>, which burned for 45 days earlier this year, was a catastrophe for the town of Morwell in Victoria’s Latrobe Valley. </p>
<p>Homes were blanketed in smoke and ash, many residents were <a href="https://theconversation.com/young-and-old-told-to-leave-morwell-south-amid-smoke-fears-23823">told to evacuate</a>, and the overall damage bill has been estimated at more than A$100 million.</p>
<p>Yet the disaster could have been avoided, according to the Hazelwood Mine Fire Commission, which recently <a href="http://report.hazelwoodinquiry.vic.gov.au">handed down its findings</a> regarding the origin of the fire, the firefighting response, and the preparedness measures taken by mine operator GDF Suez. </p>
<h2>A foreseeable fire</h2>
<p>The commission disagreed with GDF Suez’s <a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/vic/a/24884031/hazelwood-mine-fire-inquiry-gdf-suez-defends-actions-during-blaze">argument</a> that the fire was created by a “perfect storm of events”. Rather, it pointed to a failure to implement adequate risk management procedures, saying GDF Suez had approached the risk-management process as one of minimum compliance, rather than best practice and continuous improvement. </p>
<p>In the words of the commission, the possibility of disaster “could have been foreseen”, but this foreseeable risk was not properly managed. </p>
<p>The commission also found a lack of clarity over who was responsible for the implementation and review of fire management plans – a factor that it said significantly exacerbated the risk. All of the factors that contributed to the ignition and spread of the fire were found to be foreseeable. </p>
<p>After a previous fire at the coalmine in September 2008, GDF Suez failed to carry out a proper risk assessment to see if further preventative work was needed in other worked-out areas of the mine, despite having been recommended to do so. This, the commission noted, could have reduced the severity of the 2014 fire. A golden opportunity to reduce the risk had been missed.</p>
<p>The Commission concluded that GDF Suez did not adequately recognise the risk of a bushfire sparking a major fire in the worked-out areas of the Hazelwood mine, or the potential impacts such a fire might have on Morwell and surrounding communities.</p>
<p>When the fire broke out, the situation was worsened by the fact that large amounts of coal in the worked-out areas had been left exposed to the air, and that pipework from the fire service network had been removed because of deterioration. Under GDF Suez’s self-imposed guidelines, these areas were still classed as protected because they were within five minutes’ travel from a tanker filling point or hydrant manifold. But Country Fire Service volunteers who fought the blaze told the commission they had trouble finding and using these water sources. </p>
<p>The commission <a href="http://report.hazelwoodinquiry.vic.gov.au/executive-summary-2/recommendations/recommendations-gdf-suez">recommended</a> that GDF Suez conduct a thorough risk assessment of the worked-out areas of the Hazelwood mine. It also <a href="http://report.hazelwoodinquiry.vic.gov.au/executive-summary-2/recommendations/recommendations-state">recommended</a> that the Victorian government introduce legislation to require miners to draw up integrated fire-management plans. The commission made it clear that in the circumstances, doing nothing was simply not an option.</p>
<h2>In rehab</h2>
<p>The fact that the fire burned through worked-out areas of the mine also raised questions about the adequacy of GDF Suez’s mine rehabilitation program.</p>
<p>The original Hazelwood mine licence was granted on May 10, 1996. The original application was subsequently revised and a new 30-year licence was issued a few month later. On 11 July 2006, the mining licence was amalgamated with four other mining licences that had been issued to create a single larger mine. This licence was varied to allow mining to take place on the west field of the Hazelwood mine, and to require the licensee to spend A$667,930 per year on mining work in the licensed area. </p>
<p>In all, the work plan for the Hazelwood mine, which was approved on 10 September 1996, was varied seven times, with the latest and most substantial variation to the work plan being made in 2009. The 2009 variation was required to further expand the mine into the west field development region. </p>
<p>GDF Suez paid a rehabilitation bond of A$15 million in 1996. While this was initially intended to be an interim figure based, according to the commission, on “an estimate of rehabilitation costs for ongoing progressive rehabilitation and final rehabilitation at present day values”, it was clearly an underestimate. Despite this, the rehabilitation bond was never revised, even though the commission estimated that the cost of complete rehabilitation for the mine would have been about A$100 million. </p>
<p>Significantly, the rehabilitation bond was not reassessed in 2009 when the land area subject to the mining licence was substantially increased, even though this would obviously have resulted in an increase of land requiring rehabilitation. But the commission did not find that the failure to reassess the rehabilitation bond was a breach of regulations, because of the discretionary nature of the bonds which made assessment variable.</p>
<p>The commission did, however, find deficiencies in the rehabilitation program. From 1996 to 2000, several sections of the worked-out areas of the mine were not effectively rehabilitated. It was argued before the commission that the rehabilitation program was a complex, costly and time-consuming exercise and that the failure to remediate was the consequence of several factors, including a lack of dirt and clay (or “overburden”) to cover the top of the coal, bad weather hampering rehabilitation projects, and the fact that future mining activity would have resulted in the removal of any overburden put into place anyway. The commission confirmed that to privatisation, no rehabilitation works were undertaken within the pit or on any of the worked-out areas of the Hazelwood mine.</p>
<p>Despite these findings, the commission found that the rehabilitation obligations set out in the 2009 variation were technically being met. The first trigger for remediation did not actually come into full effect until 2019. Hence, although initial remediation had not occurred, the Commission felt that there was still time for GDF Suez to meet its requirements. </p>
<p>The commission did not recommend changes to the regulatory framework for rehabilitation obligations. While it noted that rehabilitation obligations were important, it argued that they should not be relied upon as the primary strategy for fire prevention.</p>
<p>GDF Suez responded to the report by strongly defending its actions, maintaining its argument that it could not have predicted the events that led to the blaze, that it had implemented many of the regulations raised by the commission, and that the findings were largely a matter of degree and interpretation. </p>
<p>The company did not accept liability for the fire, and did not indicate whether it would <a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/vic/a/24884031/hazelwood-mine-fire-inquiry-gdf-suez-defends-actions-during-blaze">provide compensation for losses caused by it</a>.</p>
<h2>It didn’t have to happen</h2>
<p>The frustrating thing for the people of Morwell, which is confirmed by the commission’s report, is that the social, environmental and economic devastation caused by the fire was easily avoidable. With proper fire management and a comprehensive mine rehabilitation plan, the risk of a disaster of this scale would have been significantly reduced. </p>
<p>Hopefully, the commission’s recommendations will help to avoid any similar event occurring in the future, although they should not be treated as a panacea. The brown coal industry must learn from this event and make absolutely sure that it is fully prepared through the implementation of careful, coordinated integrated fire management plans and a strict adherence to rehabilitation responsibilities. The most effective way of shifting behaviour is through the implementation of stronger and more focused regulation. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.latrobevalleyexpress.com.au/story/2353550/inquiry-hazelwood-manager-expresses-regret">Appearing before the inquiry in June</a>, GDF Suez senior manager George Graham said “hindsight’s a great thing”, adding: “obviously we’ve had a huge event which is deeply regrettable and we will ensure we won’t have another event like that again”.</p>
<p>Hindsight is one thing, but much greater foresight is needed if the industry is to put an end to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/accidents-or-bad-regulation-why-victorias-coal-mines-keep-failing-26376">spate of accidents</a> that have befallen Victoria’s mining industry.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/31335/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samantha Hepburn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Hazelwood coalmine fire, which burned for 45 days earlier this year, was a catastrophe for the town of Morwell in Victoria’s Latrobe Valley. Homes were blanketed in smoke and ash, many residents were…Samantha Hepburn, Professor, Faculty of Business and Law, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/263762014-05-22T20:18:10Z2014-05-22T20:18:10ZAccidents or bad regulation? Why Victoria’s coal mines keep failing<p>The fire that burned for more than <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/backgroundbriefing/2014-03-23/5331252">40 days at the Hazelwood coal mine in the Latrobe Valley</a> earlier this year is the latest in a spate of mining failures over the past few years. It might seem like plain bad luck, but a recent report shows that Victoria’s coal mines have experienced a significant number of mine failures.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.justice.vic.gov.au/home/safer+communities/emergencies/emergency+risks+in+victoria+report">Emergency Risks in Victoria report</a> said both open-cut and subsurface mines, particularly coal mines, are highly susceptible to infrastructure, operational, environmental, and safety failures.</p>
<p>The report calculates the annual likelihood of a “medium-impact” mine failure in Victoria is almost 100% - making mines more of a threat than storms, bushfires, marine pollution or heatwaves.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/05/17/world/europe/turkey-mine-accident/">deaths of 301 coal miners in Turkey</a> last week reminds us mines have the potential to cause catastrophic tragedy. There is no room for complacency. </p>
<h2>Serious impacts</h2>
<p>The social, environmental and economic impacts of mining failures can be significant. At Hazelwood, the fire found its way into the mine’s coal seam, causing a potentially catastrophic situation. Elderly and vulnerable residents were evacuated from Morwell, and the remaining community was forced to breathe toxic fumes and live in houses covered with ash. </p>
<p>Open-cut mine walls are also vulnerable to extreme weather events, because they can be weakened by water and seismic activity, potentially triggering a collapse. </p>
<p>In 2007, the open-cut mine walls (also called batters) at <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/landslide-cuts-power-flow/story-e6frf7kx-1111114879075">Yallourn Mine failed</a>, causing a landslide that diverted the Latrobe River into the mine pit, forced the operators to cease coal production, and left the nearby power station running at less than one-third capacity. </p>
<p>In 2012, an embankment that had been explicitly constructed to divert the Morwell River across the Yallourn mine <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/yallourn-coal-mine-flood-worsens-20120715-224ef.html">failed during extreme rainfall</a>. The resulting flood severely disrupted the mine’s operations and required months of costly remediation work. </p>
<p>Across the border in New South Wales, mining failures associated with <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/coal-seam-gas">coal seam gas</a> operations have led to environmental and health safety fears over the chemical contamination of groundwater. For example, Santos spilled 250 litres of algaecide in the Pilliga in December 2011 as a result of a pipe rupture causing widespread water contamination. This followed the the leaking of 10,000 litres of saline water at the Narrabi CSG Project just prior to this.</p>
<h2>Why does it happen?</h2>
<p>Mining failure is, to some extent, an inevitable risk associated with an inherently dangerous industry. But these events are not mere happenstance, and it is possible for them to be more effectively managed through the use of careful, focused regulation. </p>
<p>The margin for error can be small when dealing with technical, operational and safety issues involving mineral extraction and energy production. </p>
<p>But despite this, we need to try and ensure that mine failures are less frequent and less serious, by introducing focused regulatory measures. This should include: creating technical advisory boards, standardising safety management plans, and closely monitoring safety, rehabilitation and environmental operations rather than allowing miners to regulate themselves.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48970/original/87hwh5p4-1400565428.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48970/original/87hwh5p4-1400565428.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48970/original/87hwh5p4-1400565428.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48970/original/87hwh5p4-1400565428.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48970/original/87hwh5p4-1400565428.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48970/original/87hwh5p4-1400565428.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48970/original/87hwh5p4-1400565428.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rehabilitation work is under-regulated at mining sites.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/abeckstrom/6111229090/in/photolist-5xaFGH-aj2DuN-9MNiKs-9VPR5A-9GjG8c-dt3tDk-HuTfk-dTABHA-6aLqCw-cuTZrE-ctVxxd-6aLqM9-6aLruw-6aGhnR-6aGgZV-6aGhcx">Ammon Beckstram/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Victoria could learn a lot from Queensland’s <a href="https://www.legislation.qld.gov.au/LEGISLTN/CURRENT/P/PetrolmGasA04.pdf">Petroleum and Gas (Safety and Production) Act</a>, which requires miners to submit publicly accessible safety plans and not to carry out activities that represent “avoidable risks” such as the utilization of old or faulty equipment. </p>
<p>In contrast, Victoria’s regulations are in urgent need of reform. One of the biggest problems is that there is no external monitoring of mine rehabilitation programs. Miners largely regulate themselves and are not required to make their plans public, meaning that breaches can go undetected, even if they have the potential to endanger public safety or the environment.</p>
<h2>Counting the cost</h2>
<p>The Hazelwood fire is now the subject of a <a href="http://hazelwoodinquiry.vic.gov.au">state government inquiry</a>, with results due in August. One question for the inquiry is whether shortcomings in the mine’s rehabilitation program were a factor not only in the outbreak of the fire, but also in its impact on nearby communities.</p>
<p>In 2008, the <a href="http://www.energyandresources.vic.gov.au/earth-resources/policy-and-legislation/regulatory-reviews/yallourn-coal-mine-inquiries/mining-warden-yallourn-mine-batter-failure-inquiry-government-response">inquiry into the Yallourn landslide</a> identified several ways to reduce the chances of similar events, such as creating technical review boards to advise miners about geological risks.</p>
<p>These suggestions were never followed up. If they had been, it’s possible that the 2012 flood, which occurred at the same mine, might well have been avoided.</p>
<h2>A few steps forward</h2>
<p>Nevertheless, Victoria does have some protective provisions. The <a href="http://www.legislation.vic.gov.au/Domino/Web_Notes/LDMS/LTObject_Store/LTObjSt5.nsf/DDE300B846EED9C7CA257616000A3571/813CA9695125BB24CA2577BF007CAD09/$FILE/90-92a080.pdf">Mineral Resources Act</a> requires all coal miners in the Latrobe Valley to pay the relevant Minister a mine stability levy. This levy is then used to reduce geotechnical and hydrogeological risks to coal mines in the region. </p>
<p>The levy functions in the same way as a rehabilitation bond as it seeks to act as an incentive for operators to maintain safe, stable mines. However, financial incentives can never take the place of strong, external regulation. Indeed, it is arguable that where the cost of maintenance and rehabilitation is more than the cost of the bond, these measures might actually encourage miners to behave irresponsibly. </p>
<p>The consequences of a mining failure can be devastating, and all Australian governments should carefully consider whether their safety laws are performing optimally. The spate of catastrophic mining failures that have occurred in Victoria’s open-cut coal mines, combined with a weak regulatory framework for safety and rehabilitation, suggest that such a review has become a priority in that state. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/26376/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samantha Hepburn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The fire that burned for more than 40 days at the Hazelwood coal mine in the Latrobe Valley earlier this year is the latest in a spate of mining failures over the past few years. It might seem like plain…Samantha Hepburn, Professor, Faculty of Business and Law, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/250172014-04-14T03:20:31Z2014-04-14T03:20:31ZCritical scholarship in a hostile climate: academics and the public<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45254/original/xxjdr9tc-1396325297.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It is the role of academic researchers to challenge the relationships between government and corporations that allows society to be damaged – such as in the recent Hazlewood mine fire.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Corporations are involved in every area of our lives. In our education, health, welfare and criminal justice systems, they are ever-present.</p>
<p>So obvious is this “fact” of life that it is often only in moments of crisis – such as the recent <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-25/hazelwood-mine-fire-has-been-declared-officially-safe/5344380">Hazelwood coal mine fire</a> for the residents of Morwell – that we bother to question the consequences of corporate activity. </p>
<p>That said, and with no hint of irony, in the same week that the fire at Hazelwood was extinguished, the Abbott government announced its <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/19/red-tape-bonfire-will-not-include-scrapping-gender-reporting-rules">“red tape bonfire”</a>: 12 deregulation bills, to be rolled out through the autumn, all of which will further free business from its burdens of regulation.</p>
<h2>Whose ‘burden’ is it?</h2>
<p>The idea that regulation is a burden to be lessened is a mantra for politicians and a growing number of academics. But this ignores the weight of evidence that the significant burden of corporate activity is shouldered by the most vulnerable. </p>
<p>Combined World Health Organisation and International Labour Organisation data shows that more than <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/25/health/who-air-pollution-deaths/">one in eight deaths</a> across the globe are the result of air pollution or working. Our <a href="http://oro.open.ac.uk/36503/">research</a> has shown that most deaths caused by working and air pollution are caused by corporate activity. This is a basic but very clear indicator of how profit is privatised and how the “burden” of risk is really distributed.</p>
<p>This should be the starting point for thinking about we regulate corporations, particularly in the wake of the Hazelwood fire. Carcinogenic air pollutants in Morwell have been estimated at <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/03/morwell-coalmine-fire-doctors-warn-residents">20 times the average level</a>. </p>
<p>However, such facts are barely acknowledged by academics when they analyse and develop strategies of corporate regulation. We used to take it for granted that university researchers would be able to ask the most difficult, challenging and important questions. At the very least, they would expose political rhetoric when it is palpably nonsense.</p>
<p>There is a very large body of academic researchers – with the most influential based in Australia – who study corporate regulation. Their work tends to end up in obscure journals; much of it is funded by governments and corporations themselves; and it is used by policymakers to legitimate deregulation. </p>
<p>These researchers rarely stand alongside social movements that seek to challenge the dominant political agenda, which sees public protection as a “burden”.</p>
<h2>The entrepreneurial university</h2>
<p>The freedom to ask awkward questions about corporate – and, relatedly, state – power is increasingly subjected to a range of subtle and not-so-subtle controls. </p>
<p>Reliance on, or craving for, business and state funding for research makes it less rather than more likely that academics will ask why governments have failed to protect us from corporations. Academics are not just pushed to seek such funding: they are increasingly performance-measured by the extent to which they secure it.</p>
<p>Those pressures are driven by university managers obsessed with rankings tables, generating pressure to publish academic papers in a narrow band of “prestigious” journals at the expense of publishing for wider, non-academic audiences. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, <a href="http://www.cshe.unimelb.edu.au/people/bexley_docs/The_Academic_Profession_in_Transition_Sept2011.pdf">40-60%</a> of all Australian university academics are on fixed-term, often short, contracts. The casualisation of employment within contemporary universities weakens the ability of academics to resist the entrepreneurial demands of management.</p>
<p>The net effect of these changes is that university researchers – nudged and cajoled into courting business – are less likely to open up the skills and resources of the university to those relatively powerless, vulnerable, disadvantaged groups in our societies.</p>
<p>They are also less likely to frame their research questions in line with the concerns and needs of these groups, and are less likely to make the fruits of their research freely available to groups outside the university.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45269/original/nc2kcbrx-1396331334.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45269/original/nc2kcbrx-1396331334.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45269/original/nc2kcbrx-1396331334.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45269/original/nc2kcbrx-1396331334.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45269/original/nc2kcbrx-1396331334.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45269/original/nc2kcbrx-1396331334.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45269/original/nc2kcbrx-1396331334.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">University researchers may be less likely to open up the skills and resources of the university to relatively powerless groups in society.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Luis Enrique Ascui</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Holding power to account</h2>
<p>These observations raise certain key questions. Where might non-official knowledge that challenges our assumptions about corporate activities and who really shoulders the “burden” of these be generated? </p>
<p>How might this knowledge contribute to a debate about the more effective regulation of corporate activity and about greater state accountability for its collusion in the production of corporate harm? </p>
<p>And finally, how can academic work support those engaged in struggles for justice – such as the residents of Morwell, consistently reassured by government and corporation that they are in no danger from the airborne pollution caused by the fire?</p>
<p>However hostile the climate of the entrepreneurial university, those of us who work in academia enjoy relative privilege – some much more than others. We have access to resources which most other workers simply do not enjoy. This entails a responsibility to put those resources to work in a genuinely critical way which aspires to further social justice.</p>
<p>As the fallout from Hazelwood unfolds, whatever the <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/supreme-court-justice-bernard-teague-to-head-hazelwood-mine-fire-inquiry-20140311-34j70.html">inquiry</a> uncovers, we can be certain of one thing. A critical scrutiny of the history of the mine, its privatisation, the licensing and regulation regime, and the nature of the response to the fire would all shed some light on the murky world of state-corporate relationships, where power and profit collide and collude. </p>
<p>We can also be sure that both the government and the owners, GDF Suez, will do all they can to ensure that business-as-usual proceeds, protected by the state, even as it claims legitimacy in the name of protecting workers and the public. </p>
<p>It is the role of academic researchers to challenge the political rhetoric and the collusive relationships between government and corporations that allow workers, communities and the environment to be endangered. We can only do this by aligning ourselves more closely with the social movements and campaigns fighting for social justice, rather than with governments, politicians and corporations.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The authors will be presenting the Monash University Criminological Horizons <a href="http://artsonline.monash.edu.au/criminology/events/researching-power-and-the-powerful-in-a-cold-climate/">public lecture</a> on April 15.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25017/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Corporations are involved in every area of our lives. In our education, health, welfare and criminal justice systems, they are ever-present. So obvious is this “fact” of life that it is often only in moments…Steve Tombs, Visiting Scholar in the School of Social Sciences at Monash University, Professor of Criminology, The Open UniversityDavid Whyte, Reader in Sociology, University of LiverpoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/242152014-03-12T19:44:23Z2014-03-12T19:44:23ZStronger laws needed to prevent another Hazelwood coal mine fire<p>The Hazelwood coal mine fire shows that Victoria’s current mining laws are not strong enough to prevent a similar disaster in the future.</p>
<p>While the mine’s owner GDF SUEZ has <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/gdf-suez-rejects-claims-it-was-not-prepared-for-morwell-fire-20140304-345bq.html">vehemently rejected</a> claims that it failed to adequately prepare for fire and rehabilitate old parts of the mine beside the town of Morwell, the company could still be liable under Victorian law if it is found to have failed to comply with mining and environmental law. </p>
<p>An <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/justice-bernard-teague-to-lead-hazelwood-inquiry-20140311-34kg0.html">independent inquiry is set to get underway</a> later this month into the month-long fire, how it started (it appears to have been <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/chief-sticks-to-vic-mine-fire-timetable/story-fni0xqi4-1226837055239">sparked by a suspicious grassfire</a> that then spread) and what has contributed to it being so bad. </p>
<p>The Hazelwood fire is just the latest of several in recent years at both the <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/GDP-suez-rejects-claims-it-was-not-prepared-for-morwell-fire-20140304-345bq.html">Hazelwood and Yallourn coal mines</a>: so how can we prevent it happening again?</p>
<h2>Hazelwood under Victorian law</h2>
<p>Built by the state government in the 1960s, then privatised in 1996, <a href="http://www.gdfsuezau.com/about-us/asset/Hazelwood">Hazelwood power station</a> generates about 20-25% of Victoria’s electricity. Now operating as GDF SUEZ Hazelwood – majority owned by global energy company GDF SUEZ, with a small stake held by Japanese company Mitsui – it includes a 1542MW power station and the adjacent 3,554 hectare brown-coal mine.</p>
<p>Under Victorian law (<a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/vic/consol_act/mrda1990432/">Mineral Resources Act</a>), Hazelwood’s owners must submit a rehabilitation plan along with the work plan when they apply for a mining licence. In addition, a rehabilitation bond must be lodged, as security to ensure that the rehabilitation plan is complied with. </p>
<p>The amount of the rehabilitation bond is fully determined by the state resources minister. GDF SUEZ paid a A$15 million bond which, arguably, was patently inadequate given the potential cost associated with rehabilitating an open-cut mine of this size. </p>
<p>Significantly, the minister may require the licensee to enter into a further bond during the operation of the licence if the minister considers that the existing bond is insufficient. However, this never occurred at Hazelwood. </p>
<p>An assessment of the rehabilitation bond may also be undertaken if there is some doubt regarding the adequacy of the rehabilitation bond. This did not occur either.</p>
<p>The rehabilitation plan must take into account any special characteristics of the land, the surrounding environment, the need to stabilise the land, the desirability of returning agricultural land to a state that is as close as is reasonably possible to its state prior to the mining licence being granted and any potential long-term degradation of the environment.</p>
<p>A rehabilitation plan will also, generally, include progressive rehabilitation obligations given the ongoing potential for environmental degradation. It is likely that GDF SUEZ were subject to progressive rehabilitation obligations regarding the disused section of the mine. If so, the independent inquiry into the fire may end up examining if the failure to properly monitor such progressive rehabilitation obligations contributed to the risk of a coal fire. </p>
<p>GDF SUEZ have a 30-year mining licence, issued in 1996, which means that it comes up for renewal in 2026. That is another 12 years away and during this time, the importance of ongoing land remediation and rehabilitation, especially within disused sections of the mine, is vital. </p>
<p>While the minister has the power to prohibit work activities from continuing if rehabilitation obligations are breached, Victoria’s dependence on Hazelwood for electricity makes this highly unlikely. Further, given the inadequacy of the rehabilitation bond, it could end up being cheaper for GDZ SUEZ to forfeit the bond rather than undertake extensive rehabilitation processes.</p>
<p>GDF SUEZ could also be liable under Victoria’s Environment Protection Act. If the environment is polluted as a result of a discharge, emission or deposit of any substance from mining premises, the occupier will be deemed to have caused the pollution. The Victorian <a href="http://www.epa.vic.gov.au/">Environment Protection Authority</a> can issue a clean up notice, either during operations or at the closure of the mine. Further, the company could still be liable even after its license expires. Under the Mineral Resources Act, GDF SUEZ can be liable up to three years from the fire, and even longer under the Environmental Protection Act.</p>
<h2>Four ways to strengthen the law</h2>
<p>Given the enormous health and safety risks as well as the environmental damage the coal fires can produce, the rehabilitation provisions under Victorian law aren’t sufficiently rigorous. </p>
<p>After a 2012 <a href="http://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/images/stories/committees/edic/greenfields_mineral_exploration/Inquiry_into_greenfields_mineral_exploration_and_project_development_in_Victoria_-_final_report.pdf">Inquiry into greenfields mineral exploration and
project development in Victoria</a>, the state government’s response focused almost exclusively on the economic barriers rehabilitation can cause for mining development. The government recommended a new start-up bond scheme reducing rehabilitation bonds by up to 50% for the first five years of mine operation. </p>
<p>Stronger regulation regarding the issuance of rehabilitation bonds to reduce the possibility of another disaster of this nature occurring is now urgently needed. There are four significant ways that the existing rehabilitation law can be improved.</p>
<p>First, the minister for resources currently has very broad discretionary power over the rehabilitation assessment process. This needs to be qualified by clear legislative criteria, to prevent potentially inadequate rehabilitation bonds being issued. </p>
<p>Second, there needs to be a clear legislative mandate for the ongoing assessment of the adequacy of the rehabilitation bond, particularly over long term mining licences. </p>
<p>Third, a minimum threshold amount for rehabilitation bonds needs to be issued. A larger bond would increase the incentive for licence holders to comply with rehabilitation obligations. </p>
<p>Fourth, rehabilitation obligations should be properly monitored. Mandatory monitoring obligations would significantly reduce the potential for catastrophic coal fires. </p>
<p>The Hazelwood fire has taken a heavy environmental and social toll, with local residents breathing in smoke, ash and toxins for weeks. How much it will cost Victorian taxpayers remains to be seen – but given the huge, ongoing firefighting and emergency response, it won’t be cheap.</p>
<p>Without stronger rehabilitation laws, large open-cut mines such as Hazelwood will continue to be expensive disasters waiting to happen.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/24215/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samantha Hepburn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Hazelwood coal mine fire shows that Victoria’s current mining laws are not strong enough to prevent a similar disaster in the future. While the mine’s owner GDF SUEZ has vehemently rejected claims…Samantha Hepburn, Professor, Faculty of Business and Law, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/236982014-02-27T19:14:23Z2014-02-27T19:14:23ZVictoria’s coal fire poses a rare challenge for firefighting<p>Victoria’s Hazelwood coal mine is still burning, nearly three weeks after it started from a grassfire during severe fire conditions. Police are <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/police-suspect-arsonist-behind-hazelwood-open-cut-mine-fire-20140225-33eq0.html">currently investigating</a> the original fire for arson. Meanwhile <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/minister-rejects-fire-health-risk-20140223-33amd.html">health concerns</a> continue for firefighters and <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/morwell-residents-scared-to-stay-but-unable-to-leave-as-coalmine-fire-burns-on-20140226-33ii1.html">residents in the nearby town of Morwell</a>, with air quality very poor due to particulates produced in the fire. </p>
<p>Although rare, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/enviro/EnviroRepublish_786127.htm">coal fires can burn for decades</a> — though the Hazelwood fire will probably not last that long, especially given the current firefighting effort. (The latest <a href="https://news.cfa.vic.gov.au/news/latrobe-open-cut-mine-info.html">Country Fire Authority updates are here</a>.)</p>
<p>But what does the current fire tell us about our preparation for potential future fires? </p>
<h2>Coal fires: rare, but dangerous</h2>
<p>The Morwell Open Cut Mine is a large brown coal mine, close to homes and the Hazelwood power station (which is why the fire is being referred to by the <a href="https://news.cfa.vic.gov.au/news/latrobe-open-cut-mine-info.html">Country Fire Authority and others as the Hazelwood fire</a>). These factors mean that the Hazelwood fire poses a threat to safety of the community and <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/hazelwood-power-station-threatened-by-fire-again-as-crews-aim-for-upper-hand-20140226-33ghh.html">energy supplies</a>. </p>
<p>It is rare for a coal mine fire to pose such a significant threat. The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jharia#Coal_field_fire">Jharia coal fire</a> in India has been burning since at least 1916 and has caused serious health problems and subsidence in nearby villages and slums. </p>
<p>Another fire <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Massive-coal-mine-blaze-still-burning/2006/10/13/1160246290407.html">in 2006 at the Hazelwood mine</a> did cause loss of generating capacity to the nearby power station. </p>
<p>The risk of a fire in an open-cut coal mine depends on several factors.</p>
<p>Fire is caused by the combination of three elements: a fuel that can burn, an air supply, and the heat generated by the combustion process. Coal is, of course, the fuel, while the atmosphere supplies the air, and any coal reacting with air will generate heat. </p>
<p>Most coal mined in Australia is black coal, which is geologically older and much less reactive than brown coal. </p>
<p>In the Hazelwood situation the coal fire was <a href="http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=953255&vId=4351597&cId=Top%20Stories">started by the grass fire</a>. The coal seam at this mine is very close to the surface, so the heat from the grass fire would easily transfer to the coal seam. </p>
<p>If the seam is fractured and porous, the air would get into the coal and the coal would quickly dry out to a point where it will react with the air, until the coal temperature could increase to flame point and burn. The thickness of the coal seam also meant that there was a large mass of coal available to combust.</p>
<p>It is very rare to get a coal fire of the scale found at Morwell. Most open-cut coal fires in Australia have been caused by unusual circumstance, such as the intersection of the open cut mine with old underground coal mine roadways, which facilitate air paths into the coal seam. At these mines, the fire is controlled through prevention by isolating the underground areas, covering the exposed tunnels to prevent air getting in and only exposing small amounts of coal at a time for mining. </p>
<h2>Fighting fire with more than water</h2>
<p>Treatment of a fire at a coal mine depends upon the size and location of the fire and the available resources. If the fires are small they can be quenched with water, covered in foam and the offending area dug out and removed. </p>
<p>Large underground fires are often sealed in and the area is filled with inert gas. If possible, and the topography of the coal seam suits it, the area may be flooded.</p>
<p>Open-cut fires similarly depend upon size, location and access. </p>
<p>Often the fire consists of relatively small amounts of smouldering coal under the surface (such as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burning_Mountain">Burning Mountain</a> in New South Wales, 6,000 years old and considered the oldest coal fire in the world). This can be treated by drilling into the areas and injecting with water, foams or other wetting and suppression agents. They can also be treated by compacting the surface above the coal seam and covering the surface with an impervious layer to prevent air entering the seam.</p>
<h2>Why is Morwell’s blaze so hard to put out?</h2>
<p>Large scale open-cut fires such as at Morwell are far more difficult to manage. The scale of the fire precludes the use of many high-tech solutions due to the lack of bulk materials. </p>
<p>Water is usually the first resort to quench the active fire. Additives can be used in the water to enhance its capacity to quench the fire.</p>
<p>The location of the fire at Morwell makes close access problematic as the smoke and fumes pose a significant health risk to the firefighters (not to mention other emergency workers like <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/union-warns-of-health-risks-posed-by-hazelwood-mine-fire-20140226-33i9y.html">paramedics</a>, along with local residents). The logistics of dealing with this size of fire are quite staggering in terms of people, machinery, water and length of time.</p>
<p>The danger is that the visible fire will be extinguished but the underlying coal will remain hot. If this is the case and air can get into the seam, the fire can rekindle, days, months or even years into the future. This has been observed here and overseas on many occasions. Brown coal has to be kept moist to prevent it spontaneously combusting.</p>
<h2>Better risk management</h2>
<p>Now, there needs to be a review of fire management plans at the Hazelwood mine. Clearly the mine can’t prevent arson, but it should be able to prevent the coal igniting and spreading through the coal seam. </p>
<p>Where the fire is currently burning has not been mined for many years. Theoretically, this could have been rehabilitated and capped, although this is not without difficulties. </p>
<p>Perhaps the simplest solution is to have water supplies in the abandoned areas. While we can’t control where the coal is or what starts a fire, the mine can ensure precautions are in place to prevent future fires. </p>
<h2>How do we stop this happening again?</h2>
<p>It would be reasonable of the regulator to ask the mine to demonstrate that a fire like the current one cannot recur.</p>
<p>The previous fire in 2006 should have triggered a review of the safety management system in accordance with the requirements of Australian Standard AS4804 and the OHS regulations. The controls before 2006 and implemented as a result of that event are clearly not adequate. </p>
<p>Adequate controls may well be very expensive. Consideration could be given to reshaping the batters and capping with an inert material before revegetation occurs.</p>
<p>Controls need to be effective. Access to the grassland could be restricted with better security and inspections. Improved fire detection systems could be installed, such as are used to detect bushfires. Improved water reticulation systems could be installed. </p>
<p>A thorough investigation should also look at the issue of the initial response. When was the fire first detected? What was the early response? When was it realised that the mine was under threat?</p>
<p>Any argument about the cost of controls must recognise the direct and indirect costs of the current incident to Victorians – and particularly the locals living in and around Morwell.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/23698/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Cliff receives funding from Australian Coal Association Research Program on projects related to the prevention and control of coal mine fires.</span></em></p>Victoria’s Hazelwood coal mine is still burning, nearly three weeks after it started from a grassfire during severe fire conditions. Police are currently investigating the original fire for arson. Meanwhile…David Cliff, Professor of Occupational Health and Safety in Mining, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/93952012-09-07T05:16:37Z2012-09-07T05:16:37ZRight to compensation was folly from the start<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/15153/original/366fhxy4-1346977062.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Compensation candidate: The Yallourn power plant in the La Trobe Valley.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr/Dallas75</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In some respects, we should be relieved by the collapse of the Labor government’s negotiations to decommission some of the most polluting brown-coal electricity generation plants. The notion that decommissioning the privately-owned plants would be a relatively easy way to effect a once-off reduction in Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions was folly from the start. For the two biggest candidates for compensation, the Hazelwood and Yallourn power plants in Victoria’s La Trobe Valley, it was money for nothing.</p>
<p>Just why the two companies in question should be offered billions of taxpayers’ money to decommission their plants beggars belief. When the Kennett government privatised the state-owned power plants in 1996, international negotiations under the terms of the <a href="http://unfccc.int/2860.php">UN Framework Convention on Climate Change</a> were well advanced. There was a broad consensus among conference participants that the real economic costs of greenhouse gas emissions should be reflected in the market. They believed this could be achieved by placing a tax on emissions that sought to reflect the cost of emissions, or, and this has been the preferred measure, cap emissions and issue permits which provide the right to pollute, and which could be bought and sold through the market.</p>
<p>The companies that tendered for the Hazelwood and Yallourn power plants are known to have conducted due diligence assessments. These assessments would have included the prospect that, in the not-too-distant future, emissions would be capped and a price paid for the right to pollute. The likelihood that a system of regulating emissions would be adopted and would affect the value of power-plant assets they were bidding for was a real probability. It is outrageous that these companies believe that they have the right to be compensated for decommissioning electricity generation plants that are among the most polluting in the OECD.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/15149/original/fsp28mrz-1346975447.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/15149/original/fsp28mrz-1346975447.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/15149/original/fsp28mrz-1346975447.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/15149/original/fsp28mrz-1346975447.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/15149/original/fsp28mrz-1346975447.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/15149/original/fsp28mrz-1346975447.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/15149/original/fsp28mrz-1346975447.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Hazelwood power plant in Victoria’s La Trobe Valley.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr/Takver</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We can only guess as to the reasons why the Labor government elected to dedicate a billion or two dollars to paying electricity generators to stop burning brown coal and cut emissions. Obviously, given that Treasury modelling had predicted that the magnitude of Australia’s emissions will continue to grow into the foreseeable future, the proposal was little more than a politically opportunist exercise. A seemingly quick albeit very expensive fix to demonstrate that some concrete gains were being made to meet the commitment to reduce emissions by 5% by 2020 from 2000 levels.</p>
<p>That this quick fix has come undone highlights just how poorly thought through Australia’s climate change policy has been. The commitment to dedicate funds was not factored into the Clean Energy Future Policy costings. As the Treasurer has stated publicly, there has been – or was – no allocation for this in the Forward Estimates.</p>
<p>The collapse of the decommissioning plans as a result of the government’s decision to drop the carbon tax floor price, ostensibly to align Australia’s ETS with the EU ETS, is ironic. With the likelihood that the post-July carbon permit price will be lower than has been anticipated, the cost of these generating companies burning coal and polluting local communities and the atmosphere to produce electricity has dropped; the value of companies’ assets appreciated overnight and the financial viability of operations accordingly extended.</p>
<p>Yet these power plants will still have continuing access to further compensation, in the form of free carbon permits and other forms of assistance. And this will be on top of the advances of $266 million that have already been paid to International Power’s Hazelwood power plant and $257 million to TRUenergy’s Yallourn plant under the terms of the Clean Energy Future Policy. Talk about a “win-win” for the companies!</p>
<p>Missing from the media coverage of this debacle is any critical reflection on the case that the companies have put forward to justify compensation that reflects the (appreciated) value of their assets following the abandonment of the ETS floor price. This is an extraordinary sleight of hand because it completely overlooks the costs that these companies are imposing through their polluting activities on local communities and the global community more generally. The fundamental rationale for establishing the ETS, recognising that there are external costs and that these should be valued, has been swept aside in the search of a quick fix.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/9395/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stuart has not received funding from any source in the research and writing of this article, nor does he have any vested financial interest in the sectors analysed.</span></em></p>In some respects, we should be relieved by the collapse of the Labor government’s negotiations to decommission some of the most polluting brown-coal electricity generation plants. The notion that decommissioning…Stuart Rosewarne, Department of Political Economy, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/79402012-07-04T20:39:10Z2012-07-04T20:39:10ZThe case for shutting down Hazelwood power station - some facts and figures<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/12566/original/hbpmhy9z-1341296723.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C26%2C1943%2C1197&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">With Australia's highest carbon intensity, Victoria's Hazelwood coal-fired power station is a prime candidate to close down part of its generating capacity.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Under its <a href="http://www.cleanenergyfuture.gov.au/clean-energy-future/">Clean Energy Future</a>, the Federal government will negotiate to close 2000 MW of the dirtiest fossil fuel power generating capacity in Australia by 2020. </p>
<p>With the price on carbon now in operation, there will be pressure on some highly carbon intensive station to remain viable – this policy pre-empts the failure of the most vulnerable businesses and provides some certainty as to which stations will close, as well as compensating the companies affected, including the workers who will lose their jobs.</p>
<p>As reported in April in the <a href="http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commentary/closing-time-australias-dirtiest-power">Climate Spectator</a> the plants under consideration are Hazelwood, Yallourn and Energy Brix in Victoria, Playford B in South Australia and Collinsville in Queensland.</p>
<p>The most likely combination of these stations is Hazelwood and the much smaller Energy Brix which both rely on the same open cut coal mine in the La Trobe Valley. So assuming these are the stations that close, what will be the impact on Victoria and Australia’s carbon emissions and electrical energy system?</p>
<p>Hazelwood power station is a 1600 MW brown coal generator made up of eight 200 MW units which were constructed between 1964 and 1971. It is the oldest coal-fired generator currently operating in Victoria, and not surprisingly has the highest carbon intensity of any power station in Australia at 1.52 tonnes of CO2 for each mega-watt hour* (MWh) of electricity produced (as reported by the <a href="http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/Settlements/Carbon-Dioxide-Equivalent-Intensity-Index">Australian Energy Market Operator</a>.</p>
<p>It is just ahead of Playford B in South Australia, but Playford only has a capacity of 240 MW. Loy Yang B produces more carbon (20 mega tonnes versus 18 for Hazelwood), but also produces almost 40% more electricity. Hazelwood is a clearly a prime candidate for the Clean Energy Future program to purchase and shut down 2 GW of the most carbon intensive generating capacity.</p>
<p>In 2011, homes, business and industry connected to the National Energy Market (the NEM, made up of Tas, SA, Vic, NSW and Qld) consumed 200 TWh of electricity. The power stations combined produced 186 Mt CO2. Hazelwood supplied 6% of the NEM’s power and 10% of the emissions.</p>
<figure><table><thead><tr><th>Station</th><th>Capacity (MW)</th><th>Power (TWh /year)</th><th>Carbon Intensity (tCO2 /MWh)</th><th>Carbon (Mt CO2)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Loy Yang A</td><td>2210</td><td>16.7</td><td>1.21</td><td>20.2</td></tr><tr><td>Hazelwood</td><td>1600</td><td>12.1</td><td>1.53</td><td>18.4</td></tr><tr><td>Bayswater</td><td>2640</td><td>17.2</td><td>0.99</td><td>17.6</td></tr><tr><td>Yallourn</td><td>1480</td><td>11.7</td><td>1.42</td><td>16.6</td></tr><tr><td>Eraring</td><td>2680</td><td>13.6</td><td>0.99</td><td>13.7</td></tr><tr><td>Loy Yang B</td><td>1000</td><td>8.6</td><td>1.24</td><td>10.6</td></tr><tr><td>Mt Piper</td><td>1400</td><td>10.3</td><td>0.94</td><td>9.5</td></tr><tr><td>Liddell</td><td>2000</td><td>8.3</td><td>1.08</td><td>9.0</td></tr><tr><td>Wallerawang</td><td>1000</td><td>6.4</td><td>1.05</td><td>6.7</td></tr><tr><td>Gladstone</td><td>1680</td><td>6.8</td><td>0.96</td><td>6.6</td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption>Australia’s 10 biggest carbon emitters.<span class="source">AEMO ([http://www.aemo.com.au/](http://www.aemo.com.au/ “”))</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>So what happens if 6% of the generation is removed? Will we have rolling blackouts? Who will take up the slack?</p>
<p>A few years ago when demand was continuing to increase, this might have been a serious question. But, since 2008 <a href="http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commentary/spotlight-australias-great-electricity-story">total demand in Australia has been decreasing</a> at between 1% and 2% per year, a decrease of almost a gigawatt. </p>
<p>The effect has been that generators are operating at lower capacity factors - with wholesale electricity prices not seen in a decade - and claims that no new fossil generating capacity will be required in Australia for a decade. That means no new state-of-the-art generators that would have much lower emissions than Hazelwood.</p>
<p>Hazelwood runs at an average of around 85% capacity, or 1.4 GW. So the 1 GW decrease in demand is close to the total contribution of Hazelwood. Turning it off would more or less take us back to the supply and demand balance of 2008. </p>
<p>This would have the effect of increasing wholesale electricity prices by around 2 c/kWh – returning prices to the levels seen before 2008, and restoring some investor confidence to build new and cleaner capacity.</p>
<p>Even without new capacity, the effect of shutting down Hazelwood and the slack being taken up by existing generators that have on average 30% lower emissions, would reduce CO2 emissions by 5 Mt per year, or 3% of Australia’s electricity sector emissions.</p>
<p>In the national energy market, there is around 50 GW of capacity listed. On average we use 22 GW – so there is plenty of capacity sitting idle much of the time, waiting for the extreme demand days when the temperature reaches into the 40s. </p>
<p>With 2 GW removed from the system, there is a concern that the system may struggle to meet peak demand. But those hot days tend to be sunny, when rooftop photovoltaic (PV) will be producing at its maximum. In the last two years almost 2 GW of solar PV capacity has been installed nationally. Just as long as we use our air-conditioners when the sun is shining.</p>
<p><em>*A mega-watt hour is the amount of electricity generating by a 1 mega-watt generator operating for one hour.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/7940/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Dargaville receives funding from the Federal Government Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism</span></em></p>Under its Clean Energy Future, the Federal government will negotiate to close 2000 MW of the dirtiest fossil fuel power generating capacity in Australia by 2020. With the price on carbon now in operation…Roger Dargaville, Research Fellow, Energy Research Institute, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.