tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/james-scullin-28247/articlesJames Scullin – The Conversation2022-06-05T20:01:15Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1840372022-06-05T20:01:15Z2022-06-05T20:01:15ZA century-old double standard: like Labor leaders before him, Albanese is being told he can’t manage money<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466898/original/file-20220603-183-wspzk9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3008%2C1634&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Coalition's debt truck from 2009, when net government debt was 6% of GDP – instead of the 30% of GDP it climbed to under the Coalition.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrea Hayward/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Australian Labor Party is Australia’s oldest political party, and Anthony Albanese is its 13th prime minister. </p>
<p>He would do well to recall the experiences of his predecessors. </p>
<p>Incoming Labor prime ministers have invariably faced immediate and serious economic challenges, some of them bequeathed by conservative governments that styled themselves as superior economic managers.</p>
<p>In October 1929, Labor leader James Scullin defeated the conservative Stanley Melbourne Bruce, 12 days before Wall Street began the great crash that set off the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Great-Depression">Great Depression</a>. </p>
<p>The reverberations put the skids under the new government.</p>
<p>Even its brightest star, mercurial treasurer Edward Theodore, could not save it from annihilation two years later as the grip of the depression tightened. </p>
<p>It didn’t help that the prices of Australia’s major export commodities, wool and wheat, were in free-fall while the Commonwealth and the states owed millions in foreign loans and servicing costs to London. </p>
<p>Bruce wouldn’t have been the only politician – before or since – to have thought privately that the election he won was a good one to lose.</p>
<h2>Labor often inherits problems</h2>
<p>The Albanese government faces economic challenges of its own. </p>
<p>When the Reserve Bank board meets on Tuesday June 7, it is likely that interest rates will climb yet again. It will be part of a reckoning neither side faced up to squarely during the campaign.</p>
<p>Like Scullin and Theodore in 1929, Albanese and his treasurer Jim Chalmers have inherited a mountain of public debt and a stubborn budget deficit. </p>
<p>In Scullin’s time the Commonwealth and states had borrowed heavily for projects such as railways. The debt was mostly owed to British banks, and had to be honoured.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-good-old-days-how-nostalgia-clouds-our-view-of-political-crises-52309">The good old days: how nostalgia clouds our view of political crises</a>
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<p>At least for the moment Albanese will enjoy high commodity prices.</p>
<p>But what if overseas credit agencies decide to send a message about what they believe to be overspending? They have done it before during the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2013/February/Australias_credit_rating">1980s</a>, removing Australia’s AAA credit rating under (Labor) Prime Minister Bob Hawke, restoring it under (Coalition) Prime Minister John Howard.</p>
<p>It would fit in with the widely-held belief (even in financial markets) that Labor governments are spendthrift, and push up the cost of borrowing.</p>
<h2>Labor is often told it can’t manage money</h2>
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<span class="caption">Liberal Party advertisement.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://twitter.com/liberalaus/status/1128502765209047041">Twitter</a></span>
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<p>It is here we see the great asymmetry in Australian politics at play. Labor governments are perceived to be poor economic managers, regardless of what circumstances require them to do, compared to Coalition governments who are supposedly superior, regardless of what circumstances require them to do.</p>
<p>Scott Morrison put this way during the campaign: “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SVc2G4A_Gd4">Labor can’t manage money</a>”. </p>
<p>The sentiment has plagued Labor since Scullin’s day.</p>
<p>The Whitlam Labor government had the misfortune to come to power just as the long post-war boom was about to end. Within a year, a 1973 oil price hike by members of the Middle East oil producing cartel supercharged inflation and unemployment, derailing the Labor’s planned spending on social programs and solidifying the perception that it couldn’t manage money.</p>
<h2>Labor has a history of managing well</h2>
<p>But the necessary cutbacks in spending began with Labor itself, in Treasurer Bill Hayden’s contractionary August 1975 budget, implemented months later by the Fraser Coalition government after it took office in November 1975.</p>
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<span class="caption">Bob Hawke wound back spending as a share of the economy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">National Archives of Australia</span></span>
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<p>In March 1983, the Hawke Labor government took power only to be informed by Treasury Secretary John Stone that the budget deficit was far greater than the figure which departing Coalition treasurer John Howard had claimed.</p>
<p>Treasurer Paul Keating faced the need to restrain expenditure to relieve pressure on borrowing and on interest and exchange rates. </p>
<p>A fall in Australia’s terms of trade in early 1985 made the need for deep budget cuts more urgent.</p>
<p>The Hawke cut government spending as a proportion of gross domestic product while putting in place a prices and incomes accord, which successfully moderated pay rises in return for Medicare and superannuation.</p>
<p>Months after being elected in late 2007, the Rudd Labor government was warned of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-biggest-economic-threat-isnt-home-grown-its-a-recession-originating-in-the-united-states-184058">looming financial crisis</a> in the United States. It held off on its plans to slash government spending and developed a stimulus package that prevented mass unemployment, avoided recession, and kept Australia’s financial institutions alive.</p>
<h2>The Coalition is treated more gently as economic managers</h2>
<p>This success didn’t deter the Coalition from demonising the borrowing required to fund the package, even though Labor left office with net debt of 10% of GDP, compared to the 31% of GDP forecast in the Coalition’s 2022 budget.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-new-dawn-over-stormy-seas-how-labor-should-manage-the-economy-183518">A new dawn over stormy seas: how Labor should manage the economy</a>
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<p>Like Scullin in 1929, Albanese has been bequeathed a formidable list of problems. They include rising interest rates, stagnating wages and soaring inflation. </p>
<p>He also has to attend to a stubborn budget deficit while fulfilling his promises of increased funding for childcare, education, housing and aged care.</p>
<p>As has become the norm in Australia, these challenges have been made harder by the different ways in which the Coalition and Labor are judged.</p>
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<p><em>Correction. An earlier version of this piece said Anthony Albanese was Australia’s seventh Labor prime minister. It has been corrected to say he is Australia’s 13th Labor prime minister. The author apologises for the error.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184037/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex Millmow does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The double standard goes back to 1929, when Labor had the misfortune to be elected 12 days before the Wall Street crash that set off the Great Depression.Alex Millmow, Senior Fellow, Federation University AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1377852020-05-18T20:04:52Z2020-05-18T20:04:52ZWhy good leaders need to hold the hose: how history might read Morrison’s coronavirus leadership<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335645/original/file-20200518-138649-lhe812.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=323%2C0%2C3377%2C1994&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wes Mountain/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>What does political leadership look like in a pandemic? </p>
<p>Many of us probably carry images in our heads of what good leadership might be in a depression or a war. But before 2020 few of us would have had any conception of what political leadership might look like during a life-threatening public health crisis.</p>
<p>We took from last summer some fairly firm ideas of what leadership in a bushfire crisis should not look like. Political leaders should not leave for luxurious overseas holidays. They should not expect those who fear for their lives and property to find inspiration in the <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/something-to-cheer-about-scott-morrison-slammed-over-bushfire-cricket-tweet">exploits of the Australian cricket team</a>. They should not force themselves onto traumatised people when offering nothing except the chance to participate in a photo opportunity. They should not run party-political advertisements that seek to obscure their own monumental failures.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-australias-response-to-the-spanish-flu-of-1919-sounds-warnings-on-dealing-with-coronavirus-134017">How Australia's response to the Spanish flu of 1919 sounds warnings on dealing with coronavirus</a>
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<span class="caption">Charles II: good in a crisis.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Royal Museums Greenwich</span></span>
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<p>Above all, they should not announce that it’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-20/andrew-probyn-analysis-scott-morrison-hawaii-holiday/11817356">not their job to hold the hose</a>. As it happens, we already had a famous model of what a national leader might do in a fire. </p>
<p>In 1666, King Charles II of England was widely regarded as a worthless playboy with nothing much to his credit. In 1665, London lost tens of thousands of people in the Great Plague and there was little that he, or anyone else, had been able to do about it. When <a href="https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofEngland/The-Great-Fire-of-London/">a fire broke out</a> in Pudding Lane in the following year, few had any reason to expect Charles would distinguish himself. But his leadership in that fire is famous. It was brave, inspiring and, yes, although he did not hold the hose, he did pass the buckets.</p>
<p>Crises can make leaders but they can also break them – or, as happened over the summer with Morrison, nearly break them. In <a href="https://www.mup.com.au/books/becoming-john-curtin-and-james-scullin-paperback-softback">a recent book</a>, labour historian Liam Byrne explores the early lives and careers of two Labor prime ministers, James Scullin and John Curtin. Each was a product of the Victorian labour movement. Each had regarded himself as a socialist. Each would face a massive national crisis on becoming prime minister that required them to put aside the beliefs of a lifetime.</p>
<p>Scullin faced the Great Depression of the 1930s. He emerged from a brief time in government at the beginning of 1932 damaged and bewildered. The crisis was the breaking and not the making of him. To be fair, it’s hard to imagine how, given the state of the Australian economy and the scale of the problem he faced, anyone could have done much better.</p>
<p>When Australian prime ministers are ranked, Scullin usually occupies a lowly place while Curtin often comes out on top. The success of Curtin’s wartime leadership wasn’t predictable. He was a anti-conscriptionist during the first world war who saw that war as a scheme devised by capitalists to divide and conquer the working class. He was moody, aloof and a worrier. But the crisis of the Pacific War was the making of Curtin as a leader, even if he would not live to see the peace.</p>
<p>We should not exaggerate the extent to which Australians fell in behind Curtin’s urgings. In the present crisis, I’ve occasionally been reminded, during some of Morrison’s occasionally hectoring and patronising performances, of the difficulties Curtin faced. </p>
<p>Morrison <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-18/coronavirus-panic-buying-pm-tells-people-to-stop-hoarding/12066082">called panic-buying</a> “un-Australian”, but it must be sufficiently Australian also to have occurred during the war, when people got wind of the approach of clothing rationing. Morrison’s infantilising “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australians-earn-early-mark-on-restrictions-but-more-app-downloads-needed-20200501-p54p4e.html">early mark</a>” made some bristle in the same way, inevitably, as grown-ups came to resent petty government restrictions during the second world war. The minister in charge of rationing, John Dedman, was famously lampooned for having banned pink icing on wedding cakes and for killing Santa Claus with his restrictions on Christmas advertising. Even in war, adults expect to be treated as adults. </p>
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<span class="caption">A poster from 1942.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Queensland Museum</span></span>
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<p>Morrison could not afford another leadership failure when coronavirus hit. My own view of his leadership by the end of the last summer is that it was badly damaged but unlikely to be terminal. He had already shown himself as an adaptable politician and I expected he would also enjoy the help of a friendly right-wing media in repairing it. </p>
<p>Malcolm Turnbull’s <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/the-prince/">memoir presents</a> a hostile but mainly persuasive account of Morrison as a politician. Turnbull presents him as sneaky and duplicitous. But more importantly, in making sense of his recent leadership, Morrison is painted as a pragmatic political professional unattached to ideology and quite prepared to pick up and drop policies according to his perception of the needs – including his own – in any context. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-descending-the-covid-mountain-could-be-hazardous-for-scott-morrison-138615">Grattan on Friday: Descending the COVID mountain could be hazardous for Scott Morrison</a>
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<p>For Morrison, the science on climate change is negotiable, but the science on coronavirus is the last word. He is the kind of leader who is <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/scott-morrison-cancels-plans-to-attend-cronulla-sharks-nrl-game-amid-coronavirus-fears">off to the footy one moment</a> and everyone else should also get out and about, then that he’s not and everyone must stay home. He can dismiss the need for a wage subsidy one week and then announce a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-08/parliament-back-pass-jobkeeper-support-package-coronavirus/12125870">A$130 billion package</a> the next. He can double the JobSeeker allowance after having for years staunchly opposed even a minor increase as an affront to self-reliance and an intolerable incentive to the unemployed to stay that way. </p>
<p>Morrison can do all of this with very few backward glances and then – if it suits his purposes and he can get away with it – reverse the lot when that suits him as well. </p>
<p>So there is Morrison’s adaptability. But there is also a helpful conservative media. Here, Morrison is not just a nimble leader with a well-developed survival instinct. He is positively Churchillian. </p>
<p>Greg Sheridan of The Australian was <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/coronavirus-morrison-is-first-among-leaders-as-world-order-changes/news-story/2760be6db82d68fe33525ef7c5fcd0e1">early out of the blocks</a> near the end of March. “Scott Morrison could become Australia’s most important war-time leader,” he declared. “If he succeeds, he will join a pantheon which at the moment consists only of John Curtin, a leader who got us through, who worried us through, our last existential challenge.” </p>
<p>More recently, Sheridan’s colleague, Paul Kelly, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/coronavirus-scott-morrisons-hands-over-to-premiers-all-eyes-on-daniel-andrews-and-gladys-berejiklian/news-story/c3462057971d1619fbd7dc41e75d2a2c">has extended this</a> to an attack on state premiers as “laggards”. He asked rhetorically whether they were “free riders on the Morrison government and the banks, who keep the economy alive at such dire cost”. </p>
<p>A prime minister who can rely on such free promotion has good reason to expect a bright political future. And Labor Party figures are entitled to ask if they could have expected such generosity in the context of draconian restrictions on personal freedom and massive spending aimed at propping up the economy and saving lives.</p>
<p>As we return to something like political business as usual, Morrison is likely to be subjected to efforts to make him and his government accountable that he has long shown he regards as onerous. How he deals with those, and with the immense challenges of rebuilding the economy in the context of debt, deficit, global depression and the danger of new outbreaks of disease, may well be a more testing challenge to his leadership than anything so far.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137785/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Bongiorno does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After a disastrous performance during the summer’s bushfires, Morrison has been a stronger leader on the global health crisis. But another great challenge – the economic one – is still ahead.Frank Bongiorno, Professor of History, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1151292019-04-29T04:03:29Z2019-04-29T04:03:29ZIssues that swung elections: the bitter dispute that cost PM Stanley Bruce his seat in 1929<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270583/original/file-20190424-19286-1bq2b78.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=60%2C47%2C686%2C359&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Australian Prime Minister Stanley Bruce and Prime Minister-elect James Scullin hold a private meeting a day before Scullin takes office in 1929</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>With taxes, health care and climate change emerging as key issues in the upcoming federal election, we’re running a series this week looking at the main issues that swung elections in the past, from agricultural workers’ wages to the Vietnam War. Read other stories in the series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/issues-that-swung-elections-69985">here</a>.</em></p>
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<p>Some issues electrify Australian voters. They take over elections, crowding out all other factors. We saw it in <a href="https://theconversation.com/2001-polls-in-review-september-11-influenced-election-outcome-far-more-than-tampa-incident-112139">2001 with terrorism</a> and in <a href="https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/petrov-affair">1954 with communism</a>. </p>
<p>It also happened back in 1929 when Australians went to the polls, focused almost solely on arbitration.</p>
<p>In its early days, Australia pioneered a system of compulsory arbitration — basically a new kind of court to settle disputes between unions and employers and set wages. From the late-1800s, arbitration courts were set up in most of the Australian states, and after Federation, a federal court was established in Canberra. At first, this federal layer was designed only to deal with the most serious, nationwide industrial disputes, but it soon became a full-fledged second layer of arbitration governing all facets of industrial relations.</p>
<p>Most unions and employers rather begrudgingly came to accept arbitration as a kind of compromise - an institution that could make industrial disputes a little more civil and, hopefully, <a href="https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/alp-forms">a little less violent</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/unions-have-a-history-of-merging-thats-why-the-new-super-union-makes-sense-93077">Unions have a history of merging – that's why the new 'super union' makes sense</a>
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<p>But not all accepted the compromise. In the 1920s, the Coalition government (it was the Nationalist-Country Party Coalition back then, but they are roughly comparable to today’s Liberals and Nationals), led by <a href="http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/bruce-stanley-melbourne-5400">Prime Minister Stanley Melbourne Bruce</a>, made several attempts to water down the arbitration system, or at least remove one of the layers.</p>
<p>While unions saw the dual-layered system as an important check preventing a pro-business state or federal government from watering down hard-won protections and wages, the government believed it allowed unions to “venue-shop” until they got the result they wanted. </p>
<p>The Coalition also believed that high wages were putting off foreign investors and risked Australia’s economic development. Something had to be done.</p>
<h2>The Coalition’s unpopular assault on arbitration</h2>
<p>Initially, Bruce tried to solve the problem by asking the states to give up their courts in favour of one centralised system in Canberra. The states, then mostly governed by Labor, refused to hand over their powers to the feds.</p>
<p>Next, Bruce sought to change the Constitution to beef up the Commonwealth’s power to regulate industrial relations. The <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/sitecore/content/Home/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp0102/02RP15#part2">referendum</a>, brought in 1926, failed to gain a majority of votes or states, with only Queensland and New South Wales voting “yes”.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270582/original/file-20190424-19272-1p5xk9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270582/original/file-20190424-19272-1p5xk9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=786&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270582/original/file-20190424-19272-1p5xk9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=786&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270582/original/file-20190424-19272-1p5xk9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=786&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270582/original/file-20190424-19272-1p5xk9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=988&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270582/original/file-20190424-19272-1p5xk9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=988&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270582/original/file-20190424-19272-1p5xk9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=988&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Stanley Bruce, recording ‘A Talk to the Nation’ during the 1929 federal election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://nla.gov.au/nla.obj-137205196/view">National Library of Australia, nla.obj-137205196</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Frustrated, and alarmed by a growing economic crisis and a <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/3959771">slew</a> of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/archived/hindsight/rothbury/4671642">bitter strikes</a>, the Coalition government changed direction, attempting to abolish the federal layer of arbitration. In 1929, Bruce introduced the <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2004B03055">Maritime Industries Bill</a>, a law taking the Commonwealth out of arbitration for most industries, leaving just the state courts.</p>
<p>The bill did not pass. Six MPs, led by <a href="http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/hughes-william-morris-billy-6761">former Prime Minister Billy Hughes</a>, dramatically crossed the floor to add an amendment requiring a popular mandate for the law, either through a referendum or a general election. Bruce told the house he considered the bill a matter of confidence and called an early election. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-state-of-the-union-s-how-a-perfect-storm-weakened-the-workers-voices-57211">The state of the union(s): how a perfect storm weakened the workers' voices</a>
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<p>(This “hair trigger” approach to confidence has since fallen out of vogue. Losing on any old bill – or indeed, even a very important one – is no longer treated as a proxy confidence vote. See, for instance, the case of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-was-defeated-on-the-medevac-bill-but-that-does-not-mean-the-end-of-the-government-111635">Medevac Bill</a> passed against the wishes of the Coalition government last year. The government continued in office.)</p>
<h2>What happened on election day and why it still resonates today</h2>
<p>In the 1929 election, <a href="https://electionspeeches.moadoph.gov.au/speeches/1929-stanley-bruce">both</a> <a href="https://electionspeeches.moadoph.gov.au/speeches/1929-james-scullin">sides</a> of politics insisted that arbitration was the question being answered by the electorate. Labor, under James Scullin, clearly tapped into the public mood with his argument that arbitration, though imperfect, was the best hope for progress in Australia. The Coalition <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1929_Australian_federal_election">lost 18 seats</a> and with them, their majority. Scullin took Labor into government for the first time since 1917.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270579/original/file-20190424-19289-17vhaqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270579/original/file-20190424-19289-17vhaqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=785&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270579/original/file-20190424-19289-17vhaqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=785&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270579/original/file-20190424-19289-17vhaqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=785&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270579/original/file-20190424-19289-17vhaqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=987&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270579/original/file-20190424-19289-17vhaqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=987&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270579/original/file-20190424-19289-17vhaqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=987&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">James Scullin (right), standing outside Sydney’s Central Station after becoming prime minister in 1929.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://nla.gov.au/nla.obj-161866559/view">National Library of Australia</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>To add insult to injury, Bruce lost his own blue-ribbon seat of Flinders – the first time a sitting Australian prime minister lost his seat. </p>
<p>It would prove a rare event, not occurring again until 2007, when John Howard <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmVy0_DLsPM">lost Bennelong</a>. Funnily enough, that election, like 1929, was also largely focused on a conservative government’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2007-11-25/workchoices-blamed-for-election-loss/967664">fundamental reforms</a> to the industrial relations system.</p>
<p>Only twice in the past century have Australians seen fit to throw a prime minister out of parliament, and both times, it was over proposed reforms to industrial relations. It’s a striking fact — one that might tempt us to question whether there is some deep continuity here. It could speak to the legacy of trade unions, which have made industrial relations a fraught area for governments, even well after the heyday of union power and organisation.</p>
<p>For my money, I’d say this speaks more to the basic attitude to government in Australia — what Laura Tingle, borrowing from linguist Afferbeck Lauder, <a href="https://www.quarterlyessay.com.au/essay/2012/06/great-expectations">dubbed </a> “aorta politics” (as in, “they oughta fix x”; “they” being the authorities). </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cabinet-papers-1992-93-the-rise-and-fall-of-enterprise-bargaining-agreements-70139">Cabinet papers 1992-93: the rise and fall of enterprise bargaining agreements</a>
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<p>Very much unlike our more libertarian cousins in the US and UK, Australians have historically wanted the state to solve many of their problems. Whether or not it is a good idea, we’ve had the state irrigate farmland, deliver the mail, provide electricity, pay for our health insurance and help us buy our first home. Nowadays, Australians seem to expect it to tackle things like domestic violence and climate change.</p>
<p>And even today, as in 1929, we expect the state to keep the industrial peace – to prevent bosses or unions from going too far in their quest for economic power, to keep things civil.</p>
<p>The point here is not that arbitration or even industrial relations shall forever be a sacred cow in Australian politics. What we learn from 1929 is simply that the Australian voter does not take kindly to our governments trying to drop an issue because it is too hard. We are, it seems, a demanding lot.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115129/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James C. Murphy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Only twice have Australian electors chosen to vote out a sitting prime minister. Both times, industrial relations was the key. What can we learn from that?James C. Murphy, PhD Student in Politics & History, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/607052016-06-20T04:19:59Z2016-06-20T04:19:59ZLessons from the Depression era in how to lose government in a single term<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125808/original/image-20160609-3492-1dsiccn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Malcolm Turnbull is facing many of the same obstacles as James Scullin but in a less extreme form.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Come July 2, Bill Shorten and Labor are hoping they will party <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_federal_election,_1931">like it’s 1931</a>. That was the last election when a first-term government was given its marching orders.</p>
<p>While there are certainly differences between Labor’s hapless leader James Scullin and Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, there are similarities that might hint a Coalition victory is far from assured.</p>
<h2>What happened then?</h2>
<p>In <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_federal_election,_1929">October 1929</a>, the ALP returned to the government benches it had <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Labor_Party_split_of_1916">vacated in 1916</a> following the first party split. It was a resounding electoral victory that saw a huge swing to the ALP and 15 new seats won from the conservative coalition of the Nationalist and Country parties.</p>
<p>In a final humiliation for the ruling conservatives, Labor’s victory would even claim Prime Minister Stanley Bruce’s seat. It was the first time a prime minister lost their seat, and was not repeated until John Howard lost Bennelong in 2007.</p>
<p>But Labor’s triumph was somewhat diminished as only the 75 House of Representatives seats were contested in 1929. Unaccompanied by the usual half-Senate election, the incoming government’s position was not as dominant as it might have been.</p>
<p>So, how did things go so bad so quickly for the Scullin government?</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125810/original/image-20160609-3504-2f95gc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125810/original/image-20160609-3504-2f95gc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125810/original/image-20160609-3504-2f95gc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=751&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125810/original/image-20160609-3504-2f95gc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=751&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125810/original/image-20160609-3504-2f95gc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=751&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125810/original/image-20160609-3504-2f95gc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=944&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125810/original/image-20160609-3504-2f95gc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=944&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125810/original/image-20160609-3504-2f95gc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=944&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Things got pretty bad pretty quickly for James Scullin’s government.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NLA</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>External factors were certainly not favourable. Just days after the new ministry was sworn in, <a href="http://www.australia.gov.au/about-australia/australian-story/great-depression">the Great Depression</a> began to wreak havoc on Australia’s already poor economic position.</p>
<p>It was an inauspicious beginning. But, ultimately, it was domestic factors that led to rebel Labor MPs crossing the floor to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Labor_Party_split_of_1931">bring down the government</a>. Just two years after a landslide victory, Labor suffered a crushing defeat in 1931.</p>
<h2>Can a comparison be drawn?</h2>
<p>To varying degrees, the key factors that led to Labor’s inglorious rout after just one term can also be applied to Turnbull.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.nma.gov.au/primeministers/james_scullin">hostile Senate</a> that rejected key economic measures thwarted Scullin’s response to the Great Depression. This led to a perception of incompetence and indecisiveness.</p>
<p>Similarly, Turnbull – like the man he ousted, Tony Abbott – has not been able to work productively with the Senate crossbenchers in efforts to repair the budget bottom line. Labelled <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/17/tony-abbott-tells-party-room-its-time-to-look-on-the-bright-side-of-life">“feral” by Abbott</a> and a <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-attacks-senate-disgrace-as-crossbenchers-plot-revenge-20160305-gnbfjk.html">“disgrace” by Turnbull</a>, the Senate has blocked key reforms, making the government appear impotent.</p>
<p>But the greatest single contributing factor to Scullin’s demise was disunity within his own party. Such were the tensions between the moderate and radical wings, a second ALP split took place with an alternate Labor Party <a href="http://www.naa.gov.au/collection/fact-sheets/fs96.aspx">under Jack Lang’s leadership</a> forming.</p>
<p>While there is little chance of this happening with Turnbull’s Liberals, the fractures between the moderate and right wings <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-liberal-leading-the-liberals-can-turnbull-manage-the-ultra-conservatives-53976">are clear</a>. These divisions are all the more pronounced due to the extraordinary circumstances that saw Turnbull unseat Abbott.</p>
<p>Even before he rolled Abbott, the Liberal Party’s right wing loathed Turnbull for his comparatively progressive views. In particular, his support for same-sex marriage and action on climate change has inflamed the passions of the most conservative MPs.</p>
<p>A formal split is unlikely, but the Liberal Party is becoming increasingly divided between Abbott’s conservatives and Turnbull’s moderates. Conservative volunteers reportedly refused to campaign with sitting MP Fiona Scott in Lindsay for allegedly <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2015/s4458944.htm">voting for Turnbull in the spill</a>.</p>
<p>Conservative supporters are also reportedly <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-01/election-liberal-supporters-refusing-to-donate-over-super/7467490">cancelling party donations</a> in response to Turnbull’s superannuation reforms.</p>
<p>In the wake of Turnbull’s successful leadership challenge, conservative commentator Andrew Bolt suggested there was “loose talk” of a <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/andrew-bolt-raises-prospect-of-cory-bernardi-as-leader-of-new-conservative-party-on-the-project-20150915-gjngrt.html">breakaway conservative party</a>. So far it has proved nothing more than loose talk – but if the conservative right does not seek a Liberal split, it does at least want to wrestle back control from the moderates.</p>
<h2>Key differences</h2>
<p>Scullin’s prime ministership was ultimately cut short because, in the face of a great economic crisis, he did not appear to have a coherent plan, and things appeared to be getting worse rather than better.</p>
<p>Unlike then, Australia is in a relatively strong economic position – but the perception remains that the country is in trouble.</p>
<p>The Coalition came to power in 2013 promising to tackle the <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/business/no-budget-emergency-say-economists-20140711-zt4kz.html">“budget emergency”</a> and return the budget to surplus. But under Abbott and Turnbull, the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-18/fact-check-did-the-govt-triple-the-deficit/7407538">deficit has doubled</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125813/original/image-20160609-3506-1w76sl6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125813/original/image-20160609-3506-1w76sl6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125813/original/image-20160609-3506-1w76sl6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=745&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125813/original/image-20160609-3506-1w76sl6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=745&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125813/original/image-20160609-3506-1w76sl6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=745&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125813/original/image-20160609-3506-1w76sl6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=936&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125813/original/image-20160609-3506-1w76sl6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=936&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125813/original/image-20160609-3506-1w76sl6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=936&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Labor under Bill Shorten must convince the electorate it has learnt from its mistakes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>One key difference between Scullin in 1929 and Turnbull today is the opposition. In response to fractures in the Nationalists and within Labor’s own ranks, an entirely new party was created. The United Australia Party (UAP) presented itself as a credible alternative to the chaotic incumbent. It had no political baggage and seemed to represent a safe pair of hands, in contrast with the self-destructing government. </p>
<p>Turnbull’s opposition is not as strong. Both Shorten and Labor carry the scars of the Rudd/Gillard years. Unlike the UAP in 1931, Labor in 2016 must convince the electorate it has learned from its mistakes.</p>
<p>Turnbull is facing many of the same obstacles as Scullin but in a less extreme form. The economic challenges he is facing are not as dire. The Senate he has worked with is not as hostile. The splits in his party are not as irreparable; the opposition he faces is not as formidable.</p>
<p>While Turnbull will not suffer a severe defeat as Scullin did, his victory is not assured either. Like in 2010, a handful of votes or maybe even the whim of independents will determine the outcome.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60705/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin T. Jones does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>James Scullin’s prime ministership was ultimately cut short because, in the face of a great economic crisis, he did not appear to have a coherent plan.Benjamin T. Jones, ARC Research Fellow in the School of History, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.