tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/kamala-harris-28141/articles
Kamala Harris – The Conversation
2024-03-19T12:27:35Z
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/221567
2024-03-19T12:27:35Z
2024-03-19T12:27:35Z
US democracy’s unaddressed flaws undermine Biden’s stand as democracy’s defender − but Trump keeps favoring political violence
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581766/original/file-20240313-18-8p9hen.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=297%2C152%2C4186%2C3446&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Democracy in the U.S. has historically not been available to all.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/waving-flag-united-states-on-a-dark-wall-royalty-free-illustration/513437560?phrase=democracy+united+states&adppopup=true">Panacea Doll/iStock / Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Joe Biden argues that “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/05/us/politics/biden-speech-trump-jan-6.html">democracy is on the ballot</a>” in the 2024 election. </p>
<p>We believe there are potential threats to U.S. democracy posed by the choices voters make in this election. But the benefits of American democracy have for centuries been unequally available, and any discussion of the current threats needs to happen against that background. </p>
<p>One of us is a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=xdia5UoAAAAJ&hl=en">political scientist who focuses on civic engagement</a>; the other is a <a href="https://tischcollege.tufts.edu/about/leadership/dayna-l-cunningham-dean">former voting rights lawyer</a>. At Tufts University’s Tisch College of Civic Life, we both lead nonpartisan efforts to educate college students and other people about their roles in democracy. </p>
<p>For us, Biden’s talk of democracy is a useful starting point for a broader conversation about U.S. democracy and the 2024 election. </p>
<h2>The ‘sacred cause’</h2>
<p>On Jan. 5, 2024, the president delivered a speech in Blue Bell, Pennsylvania, titled “<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/01/05/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-third-anniversary-of-the-january-6th-attack-and-defending-the-sacred-cause-of-american-democracy-blue-bell-pa/">Defending the Sacred Cause of American Democracy</a>.” </p>
<p>As a candidate for reelection at the early stages of a political campaign, the president argued that he and his fellow Democratic candidates are in favor of democracy. Former President Donald Trump and his supporters in the U.S. Congress, said Biden, are against it.</p>
<p>In this speech and other statements, Biden makes the following case: Trump supported or even incited the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection, and he refuses to <a href="https://whyy.org/articles/biden-jan-6-valley-forge-speech-2024-election-pennsylvania/">denounce political violence</a>. Trump floats ideas for his second presidential term that include <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-military-insurrection-act-2024-election-03858b6291e4721991b5a18c2dfb3c36">invoking the Insurrection Act</a>, which authorizes the president to deploy the military inside the United States. </p>
<p>In contrast, Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris argue that they respect the Constitution, recognize their limited power and limited importance as leaders within a constitutional order and support freedom of speech. They maintain, in Biden’s words, that “<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/01/05/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-third-anniversary-of-the-january-6th-attack-and-defending-the-sacred-cause-of-american-democracy-blue-bell-pa/">political violence is never, ever acceptable</a> in the United States.”</p>
<p>The basic facts in Biden’s speech appear accurate: Trump’s own statements support some of Biden’s claims. </p>
<p>If elected again, Trump is reportedly considering deploying the Insurrection Act <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/05/trump-revenge-second-term/">against civilian protests</a>. He has expressed <a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2023/11/12/donald-trump-comments-xi-jinping-kim-jong-un-new-hampshire-rally-se-cupp-acostanr-vpx.cnn">open admiration for foreign authoritarian leaders</a>, most recently <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-watched-hungarys-democracy-dissolve-into-authoritarianism-as-a-member-of-parliament-and-i-see-troubling-parallels-in-trumpism-and-its-appeal-to-workers-224930">Hungary’s Viktor Orban</a>. He encouraged <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-guard-vote-election-2024-flynn-39d41fe4f7229d4ab7e1956efc428e10">his supporters to “guard the vote” and to “watch those votes” in certain cities</a>, which some interpret as threatening and potentially intimidating to election workers. </p>
<p>Trump has threatened to prosecute his political opponents, claiming in October 2023 that since he was being prosecuted during the Biden administration, that provided justification for him to do the same.</p>
<p>“This is third-world-country stuff, ‘<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/05/trump-revenge-second-term/">arrest your opponent</a>,’” Trump said during a New Hampshire campaign visit. “And that means I can do that, too.”</p>
<h2>Democracy vs. security</h2>
<p>Biden’s own record, however, undermines some of his claims to be fully committed to democracy. </p>
<p>The Biden-Harris administration <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/3924376-double-standard-will-biden-truly-champion-human-rights/">has been accused</a> by human rights advocates and <a href="https://www.murphy.senate.gov/newsroom/in-the-news/senators-warn-biden-that-a-defense-pact-with-authoritarian-saudi-arabia-in-exchange-for-normalizing-ties-with-israel-hurts-american-interests">even Democratic senators</a> of a double standard: championing democracy while maintaining close ties with authoritarian leaders, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-repressive-saudi-arabia-remains-a-us-ally-156281">including the Saudis</a>. </p>
<p>At the very least, Biden has continued a historic pattern of U.S. engagement across the globe that <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/12/13/examining-u.s.-relations-with-authoritarian-countries-pub-91231">prioritizes security over human rights</a> and liberal democracy. His administration is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/19/us/politics/biden-israel-gaza-poll.html">widely criticized</a> for its support of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s conduct of the war in Gaza and its disastrous humanitarian consequences.</p>
<p>At home, despite a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/20/upshot/biden-budget-before-after-animation.html">major expansion of the government’s role</a> in the economy, the Biden administration <a href="https://regulatorystudies.columbian.gwu.edu/new-goals-old-tools-broadening-public-participation-regulatory-process-biden-administration">has not done anything significant</a> to make federal policymaking more democratic or participatory.</p>
<h2>Longer trends</h2>
<p>It’s helpful to step back from the daily campaign and its heightened rhetoric and consider how Biden’s assertion holds up in light of general research and evidence about democracy in the U.S. That analysis reveals a more complex picture of threats to democracy, some of which are specific to the upcoming election. Others have existed for some time.</p>
<p>In their 2020 book “<a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250244420/fourthreats%22%22">Four Threats: The Recurring Crises of American Democracy</a>,” political scientists Suzanne Mettler and Robert C. Lieberman argue that democracies in general suffer when any of four trends occur: intense partisan polarization, efforts to exclude some people from the electorate, economic inequality and unilateral exercises of power by the executive branch.</p>
<p>Mettler and Lieberman show that each of these trends has been rising in the U.S. for several decades. Applying their framework, we’d note that both Biden and Trump used a <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-like-trump-sidesteps-congress-to-get-things-done-218010">comparable number of executive orders</a> – 127 and 137, respectively – in their first three years to bypass a reluctant Congress and enact policies unilaterally. The Biden administration has been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/01/us/politics/student-loan-debt-supreme-court-executive-power.html">credibly accused of stretching executive power</a> in areas such as student loan forgiveness.</p>
<p>These long-term trends mean that neither Trump nor Biden is mainly responsible for causing them. Biden criticized all four of these threats in his Jan. 5 speech, however, whereas Trump often <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3941462-trump-wishes-happy-easter-to-pathetic-rinos-and-radical-left-democrats/">endorses political polarization</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/17/us/politics/trump-plans-2025.html">limitless executive power</a> and has <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/11/24/938187233/trump-push-to-invalidate-votes-in-heavily-black-cities-alarms-civil-rights-group">challenged the validity of votes</a> cast in urban and suburban areas with significant minority populations. This difference lends support to Biden’s argument.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582041/original/file-20240314-18-g1h88t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A crowd of angry people in front of a large white, domed building, with dark clouds above." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582041/original/file-20240314-18-g1h88t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582041/original/file-20240314-18-g1h88t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582041/original/file-20240314-18-g1h88t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582041/original/file-20240314-18-g1h88t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582041/original/file-20240314-18-g1h88t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582041/original/file-20240314-18-g1h88t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582041/original/file-20240314-18-g1h88t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pro-Trump protesters gather in front of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in Washington, D.C., a day that may have signaled the beginning of an era of political violence in the U.S.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/pro-trump-protesters-including-proud-boys-leader-joe-biggs-news-photo/1230457865?adppopup=true">Jon Cherry/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Violence as a threat to democracy</h2>
<p>Notable in Biden’s campaign rhetoric about democracy is his <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/jan/05/donald-trump-election-warning-nikki-haley-joe-biden-latest-news?page=with%3Ablock-65987be28f08d8e96baf827e#block-65987be28f08d8e96baf827e">alarm about political violence</a>. In any democracy, violence is a threat because, among other things, it intimidates people and makes participation dangerous. In the U.S., political violence has always been associated with attempts to deny democratic rights. It is <a href="https://www.amacad.org/publication/story-violence-america">often racialized</a> and targeted at the most vulnerable communities. </p>
<p>By its very nature, the system of slavery required extreme violence, political repression and the denial of democratic rights to enslaved black people. Though rarely recognized as such in history books, it could be characterized as a <a href="https://doi.org/10.18574/nyu/9781479803729.003.0010">racially targeted police state</a> coexisting within a liberal democracy for whites only.</p>
<p>Governance under slavery included organized vigilante violence, repression of dissent, violent clashes and rebellions, harsh suppression, broad prosecution of dissidents, and systematic passage of restrictive laws or renewed enforcement of existing measures when resistance emerged.</p>
<p>Desmond S. King and Rogers M. Smith in “<a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691142630/still-a-house-divided">Still a House Divided</a>” catalog some of these patterns. Even after slavery and the post-Civil War period known as Reconstruction, <a href="https://eji.org/reports/reconstruction-in-america-overview/">political violence</a> – frequently in response to Black political mobilization or the exercise of basic rights – helped maintain what was known as <a href="https://www.britannica.com/summary/Jim-Crow-Laws-Key-Facts">Jim Crow rule</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://eji.org/report/reconstruction-in-america/">Two major instances among many stand out</a>: the 1898 “<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-white-supremacist-coup-succeeded-in-1898-north-carolina-led-by-lying-politicians-and-racist-newspapers-that-amplified-their-lies-153052">Wilmington coup</a>,” when white supremacists overthrew the democratically elected biracial city government, and the destruction of a city’s vibrant Black business district and community in <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-grandfather-to-grandson-the-lessons-of-the-tulsa-race-massacre-140925">the Tulsa Race Massacre of 1921</a>. </p>
<p>Violence as a threat to democracy is by no means new, but the U.S. may be entering a new violent chapter. </p>
<p>While we do not have extensive historical data, the rate of political violence seems high now, and there are indications of dangerous trends. For example, in 2023, the U.S. Capitol Police <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/19/politics/uscp-threat-assessment-lawmakers-2023/index.html">investigated</a> more than 8,000 threats against members of Congress, a substantial increase over 2022. The number of serious threats against federal judges has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-election-judges-threats/">increased each year</a> since 2019 and is 2.5 times higher now than five years ago. </p>
<p>Citing data collected by Nathan P. Kalmoe, Lilliana Mason and Bright Line Watch, <a href="https://scholar.google.com.au/citations?user=AUa1y3wAAAAJ&hl=en">democracy scholar Rachel Kleinfeld</a> <a href="https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/the-rise-of-political-violence-in-the-united-states/">shows</a> that the percentage of both Democrats and Republicans who believe that violence is sometimes justified to achieve their political goals has more than doubled since 2017, although this remains a minority view in both parties. </p>
<p>From 2020 to 2023, the <a href="https://acleddata.com/">Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project</a> <a href="https://peterlevine.ws/?p=30819">cataloged</a> 1,080 demonstrations in the United States that the organization labels violent – along with more than 50 times as many nonviolent demonstrations – plus 157 cases of excessive force against demonstrators and 22 armed clashes. This data establishes a baseline for tracking the phenomenon in the near future.</p>
<p>From our perspective, nonviolent protests are expressions of a vibrant democracy that deserve protection. There may be room to debate some of the protests labeled “violent.” However, the sheer number of demonstrations that the project labels violent – more than 1,000 in four years – is concerning to us.</p>
<p>The Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol may prove to be an example of a period of political unrest. Trump is deeply implicated in the violence. Biden is decrying it – but not necessarily proposing any response other than to vote against Trump.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221567/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
There are potential threats to US democracy posed by the choices voters make in this presidential election. But the benefits of American democracy have for centuries been unequally available.
Dayna Cunningham, Pierre and Pamela Omidyar Dean, Jonathan M. Tisch College of Civic Life, Tufts University
Peter Levine, Tisch College Associate Dean for Academic Affairs and Lincoln Filene Professor, Tufts University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/223634
2024-02-20T19:57:27Z
2024-02-20T19:57:27Z
Some truths are self-evident: Joe Biden is too old. But who could possibly replace him?
<p>It is possible, in politics as in life, for several things to be true at once. </p>
<p>It is true that Donald Trump and his plans for a second presidential administration represent an <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-2024-election-cycle-could-result-in-more-threats-to-us-democracy-200704">existential threat</a> to American democracy. </p>
<p>It is true that a media imperative for “balance” in political reporting is further degenerating into a “<a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/donald-trumps-january-6-media">both sides</a>”, <a href="https://www.nybooks.com/online/2020/11/01/americas-press-and-the-asymmetric-war-for-truth/">false balance</a> framework that is distorting our sense of what is at stake in this presidential campaign. </p>
<p>It is true that whether we think it fair or not, Biden’s age is going to frame coverage of the election. Just this week, for example, the New York Times <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/02/06/opinion/thepoint">ran a story</a> with the headline “Which Is Worse: Biden’s Age or Trump Handing NATO to Putin?”. </p>
<p>As others have pointed out, this kind of narrative approach is calcifying. It does not seem to matter, for example, that in his incendiary comments about Biden’s age, special counsel Robert Hur took <a href="https://www.nybooks.com/online/2024/02/11/the-memory-hole-biden/">grossly inappropriate liberties</a> in editorialising. It would not matter if Biden did not make another slip for the entire campaign (which, given what we know about the president, seems unlikely), and it does not matter that these slips may not have anything to do with advancing age. </p>
<p>It is also true that Biden is too old. At 81, he is already too old now, and if he does see out a second term, he will be 86. In the end, that may not affect the outcome of the election – in 2020 and 2022, American voters demonstrated that they saw Trump’s politics as a far greater threat to American democracy, stability and prosperity than Biden’s age. </p>
<p>But that does not change the fact that he is too old. As Fintan O’Toole <a href="https://www.nybooks.com/online/2024/02/11/the-memory-hole-biden/">recently argued</a>, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Biden, fairly or otherwise, is the lightning rod for deep generational discontents and widespread unhappiness at the persistence of an American gerontocracy. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>So why, given all these truths, is Biden still – barring any significant changes in the status quo – all but guaranteed the Democratic nomination? </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1757606176705962470"}"></div></p>
<h2>The ‘veep’ problem</h2>
<p>In as much as there are any “<a href="https://warontherocks.com/2024/02/history-has-no-lessons-for-you-a-warning-for-policymakers/">lessons</a>” from American history, it is generally true that if a president is not running, the vice president gets the first shot at the job. Vice President Harry Truman, for example, succeeded President Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Vice President Lyndon Baines Johnson was sworn in after the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, and went on to win the 1964 election. Moving closer to the present, examples include Vice President George H.W. Bush’s successful run after President Ronald Reagan’s history-shaping two terms, or Vice President Al Gore’s nomination after he served twice under President Bill Clinton. </p>
<p>The point is, the vice presidency exists precisely for this reason – the VP is second in line for the presidency and so presumably the best choice for leadership after the president. If the president can not or will not run, the VP is all but assured the nomination. </p>
<p>When then-presidential candidate Joe Biden <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/11/politics/biden-vp-pick/index.html#:%7E:text=%E2%80%9CI've%20decided%20that%20Kamala,wrote%20in%20an%20email%20Tuesday.">announced Kamala Harris</a> would be his vice-presidential running mate in 2020, he said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Kamala Harris is the best person to help me take this fight to Trump […] then to lead this nation. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>After a hard-fought nomination contest, Biden chose Harris, 20 years his junior and a woman of colour, very much in the context of his commitment to act as a generational “bridge” for the Democratic Party. </p>
<p>In her position as vice president and in the context of history, Harris is the obvious successor to Biden. </p>
<p>So why hasn’t Biden built her a bridge? </p>
<p>Without hearing from the president specifically on this point, we can only speculate based on the evidence we have. </p>
<p>The most obvious answer is that Biden, having chosen her as his second, now thinks – for whatever reason – that Harris is not the right candidate for leadership and/or would not win a presidential election. There has been <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/30/harris-democrats-worry/">significant negative coverage</a> speculating about Harris’ lack of political nous and appeal. Given what is at stake this year, it seems likely that Biden is simply not willing to risk it all on Harris. </p>
<p>To be fair to the vice president, this may not actually have anything to do with her political abilities. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576115/original/file-20240216-26-5hap1n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576115/original/file-20240216-26-5hap1n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576115/original/file-20240216-26-5hap1n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576115/original/file-20240216-26-5hap1n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576115/original/file-20240216-26-5hap1n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576115/original/file-20240216-26-5hap1n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576115/original/file-20240216-26-5hap1n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576115/original/file-20240216-26-5hap1n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Biden is unwilling or unable to pass the leadership baton to Harris, and therefore is stuck. Shutterstock.</span>
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<p>Harris has already been on the receiving end of vicious, racist attacks from Trump supporters, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/utah-man-killed-fbi-raid-linked-alleged-threats-against-biden-vp-harris-2023-08-09/">including death threats</a>. There is a reason so many conspiracy theories coming from the right focus on powerful women and, more often than not, Black women – on Harris, former First Lady <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4458607-texas-lt-gov-says-its-clear-democratic-deep-state-run-by-obama-taking-biden-down/">Michelle Obama</a>, and even <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/how-taylor-swift-became-the-latest-target-of-right-wing-conspiracy-theorists">Taylor Swift</a>. In a febrile political environment, were Harris to be the nominee, it is almost certain sections of the American right would explode. </p>
<p>It is entirely possible that the significant risk to Harris herself, and to American political stability more broadly, are factoring into Biden’s decision to run again, despite the overwhelming focus on his age. </p>
<p>As Jill Lepore <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/podcast/political-scene/why-the-trump-ballot-case-is-the-ultimate-test-of-originalism">has argued</a>, while decisions like this are being made ostensibly (and understandably) to mitigate the risk of political violence, they may end up having the effect of justifying or even encouraging it. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, for these reasons and possibly others, it seems as though Biden will not anoint Harris as his successor. </p>
<p>Simply put, if Biden does not choose Harris, he cannot choose anyone else without catastrophically undermining his own administration and authority. </p>
<p>Even hinting he thinks it should be someone other than himself or his vice president would suggest Biden made the wrong choice to begin with – not a risk he is likely to take, despite the stakes. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-abortion-be-the-issue-that-swings-the-2024-us-presidential-election-219495">Will abortion be the issue that swings the 2024 US presidential election?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<h2>For want of a better alternative</h2>
<p>Whether Biden is unwilling or just feels unable to pass the leadership baton to Harris isn’t really the point. The point is that he won’t do it and is, therefore, stuck. </p>
<p>That doesn’t mean, of course, that circumstances won’t change. </p>
<p>It is entirely possible Biden will change his mind, or become unable to run, or that some other event will force the hand of the Democratic Party. </p>
<p>Practically, it is now <a href="https://www.vox.com/24067941/joe-biden-2024-age-democrats-alternate-candidates">too late</a> for another viable candidate to run for the nomination – filing deadlines have mostly already passed, and the challenges of publicity and fundraising are all but insurmountable. </p>
<p>If Biden were to pull out, timing would be crucial, and would likely need to be at or immediately before the Democratic National Convention in August. The best possible scenario in this case is that the contest heads to a <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-a-brokered-convention-what-is-a-contested-convention/">brokered convention</a>, in which delegates previously committed to Biden are freed, by him, to vote for another candidate. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/joe-biden-could-still-stand-down-before-the-election-heres-how-and-what-would-happen-next-221552">Joe Biden could still stand down before the election – here's how and what would happen next</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Exactly who that candidate might be is an open question, and another likely reason that Biden and the Democrats more broadly are extremely reluctant to go down this path. </p>
<p>Once again, the obvious candidate is Harris. If it isn’t (perhaps for the reasons outlined above), it’s not clear who it could be, or how deep divisions would run. There are several prominent, popular Democrats who might contest, including Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, California Governor Gavin Newsom or Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear. </p>
<p>Historically, the in-fighting that would come with such a contest, even if it were amicable, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna26840327">has not played well for Democrats</a>, and would almost certainly put them on the back foot come November. That’s not an insurmountable challenge, and might even be the right choice given the circumstances, but it would be an enormous political risk for a party generally averse to taking big chances. </p>
<p>Biden has called this election a “battle for the soul of America”. Given the existential stakes of this election, Democrats are left with few good choices. </p>
<p>Some truths are self-evident. That doesn’t make them easier to face.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223634/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emma Shortis is Senior Researcher in International and Security Affairs at independent think tank The Australia Institute.</span></em></p>
At 81, the president is perhaps too old to run again. But he may be the only feasible option for Democrats.
Emma Shortis, Adjunct Senior Fellow, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/222681
2024-02-14T13:22:36Z
2024-02-14T13:22:36Z
Who will be picked for vice president? Let’s discuss who’s qualified for the job
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575411/original/file-20240213-24-y1vtxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former president Donald Trump speaks as potential vice presidential hopefuls Vivek Ramaswamy and Sen. Tim Scott look on. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-president-donald-trump-speaks-after-he-was-projected-news-photo/1948411111?adppopup=true">Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The November presidential election might seem far away, but it’s time for the veepstakes – already. You know, that favorite game of pundits, politicos and political junkies who, every four years, obsess over the presidential candidates’ choice for vice president. </p>
<p>Of course, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-primary-elections/calendar">most states</a> have not yet held their presidential primary or caucus. And nominations won’t be made official until the summer Democratic and Republican conventions. </p>
<p>But with President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump on track to win their party’s nominations, media headlines are already turning to the veepstakes. Who <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/01/18/maga-nightmare-trump-loyalists-move-to-head-off-haley-vp-pick-00136282">will Trump</a> <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/02/05/the-trump-veepstakes-has-begun">pick</a> for <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/us/politics/donald-trump-vp.html">vice president</a>? Did he really ask <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-running-mate-update-rfk-jr-responds-speculation-1865123">Robert F. Kennedy Jr.</a> to be his running mate? Will Biden drop Vice President Kamala Harris from the <a href="https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/kamala-harris-biden-campaign-insiders-b2482874.html">Democratic ticket</a>?</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=9tEg468AAAAJ&hl=en">political scientist</a> who has studied <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-28166-2">veepstakes media coverage</a>, I advise anyone following the vice presidential race to take all of this feverish speculation with a grain of salt. </p>
<p>You’ll hear in the speculation, for example, that vice presidents don’t really matter once in office and that the vice president pick has to be someone who can help win the election by delivering a key state or voting bloc. </p>
<p>But what matters most to voters, according to my research, and to the future of this country is finding someone who is well qualified to serve as vice president – and president, if necessary. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575412/original/file-20240213-22-kgocee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Joe Biden wears a dark suit and holds hands with Kamala Harris, also wearing a dark blazer, and standing next to her husband, Doug Emhoff. They stand in front of a podium and American flags." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575412/original/file-20240213-22-kgocee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575412/original/file-20240213-22-kgocee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575412/original/file-20240213-22-kgocee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575412/original/file-20240213-22-kgocee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575412/original/file-20240213-22-kgocee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575412/original/file-20240213-22-kgocee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575412/original/file-20240213-22-kgocee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Joe Biden holds hands with Vice President Kamala Harris at a reception for Black History Month on Feb. 6, 2024, at the White House.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-and-vice-president-kamala-harris-hold-news-photo/1983629654?adppopup=true">Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What the media get wrong</h2>
<p>Veepstakes media coverage deserves its poor reputation as little more than an electoral parlor game. Too bad: Given the vice presidency’s importance and the media’s opportunity to educate Americans about who could be next to serve in the office, it should be so much more than that. This is the conclusion from my 2023 book, <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-28166-2">“News Media Coverage of the Vice-Presidential Selection Process: What’s Wrong with the ‘Veepstakes?’”</a></p>
<p>I used data from presidential elections from 2000 through 2020 to conduct the first systematic analysis of veepstakes media coverage. For each competitive vice presidential selection process during that time – five for Democrats, four for Republicans – I studied 10 “<a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/elections/2008/primaries/candidates/vp/index.html">veepstakes</a> <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53088353">guides</a>.” </p>
<p>This means articles or other news features from major media outlets, such as The New York Times, CNN and Fox News, profiling numerous vice presidential contenders. Typically, these profiles <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mitt-romneys-vice-president_n_1439122">break down</a> the perceived <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-clinton-trump-vp-20160708-snap-htmlstory.html">advantages and disadvantages</a> associated with choosing a certain candidate.</p>
<p>Journalists and their editors decide which criteria to consider when making those evaluations. This allows me to characterize the media’s messages about what is important when selecting a vice presidential candidate. </p>
<p>So, if 75% of the profiles of potential Democratic running mates in 2020 mentioned age, but only 40% mentioned political experience, I would conclude that media coverage, in general, portrayed age as a more relevant selection criterion than experience.</p>
<h2>What does the evidence show?</h2>
<p>Veepstakes media coverage tends to focus on whether a potential running mate can <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/veepstakes-2000">help win</a> the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/05/14/854433511/the-pros-and-cons-of-12-potential-running-mates-for-joe-biden">election</a> – not on who can help the president govern once in office. </p>
<p>From 2000-2016, for example, 73% of the vice presidential candidate profiles referenced the candidate’s home state, race, age, gender or social class as a reason to select or reject them. </p>
<p>Whether a candidate was qualified to serve in the White House attracted much less attention. Just half as many veepstakes profiles – approximately 38% – discussed the candidates’ political experience, working relationship with the presidential candidate or, more generally, whether they were up to the job of being vice president or president. </p>
<p>In fact, I found that journalists are more likely to discuss a potential running mate’s <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20000305010318/http://washingtonmonthly.com/features/1999/9907.starr.campaign.html">physical</a> <a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/2004/03/17/running-mating-game/">appearance</a> than whether he or she is qualified to serve as vice president. </p>
<p>A potential vice presidential candidate’s political or professional experience gets even less media coverage in the run-up to a close election. Only when the outcome seems like a foregone conclusion do journalists spend about as much time weighing a potential running mate’s governing capacities as their electoral appeal. Choosing a well-qualified vice president is treated as a luxury that only some presidential candidates can afford.</p>
<p>Coverage around the 2024 GOP vice presidential pick is just heating up. But unfortunately, I think the country is likely to see the same type of veepstakes coverage in 2024 as in previous elections: fevered speculation about who can deliver an election victory, with some occasional commentary on who can serve effectively as vice president. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575413/original/file-20240213-20-9vre8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A white middle aged woman with dark hair wears a sleeveless dress and presses her face up against Donald Trump, seen only from the behind. He wears a navy blue jacket." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575413/original/file-20240213-20-9vre8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575413/original/file-20240213-20-9vre8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575413/original/file-20240213-20-9vre8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575413/original/file-20240213-20-9vre8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575413/original/file-20240213-20-9vre8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575413/original/file-20240213-20-9vre8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575413/original/file-20240213-20-9vre8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, seen here with former President Donald Trump in September 2023, has also been floated as a potential vice presidential pick.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-former-president-donald-news-photo/1668888896?adppopup=true">Scott Olson/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How to get it right</h2>
<p>The problem with veepstakes media coverage, generally speaking, is that it overstates the vice presidential candidate’s influence on voters and understates the importance of electing a well qualified vice president.</p>
<p>Vice presidents have little in the way of formal, <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/">constitutional powers</a>. They <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/vice-president-harris-breaks-nearly-200-year-old-record-for-senate-tiebreaker-votes-casts-her-32nd">break ties</a> in the Senate. And in what used to be a simple ceremonial function, they also <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?507663-5/counting-electoral-college-votes-part-3">open and count</a> the states’ electoral votes after a presidential election. </p>
<p>They are also <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2013/08/27/us/succession-presidential-and-vice-presidential-fast-facts/index.html">first in line</a> to take over as president, if necessary. </p>
<p>But over the past half-century, vice presidents have gained a great deal of <a href="https://kansaspress.ku.edu/9780700624836/the-white-house-vice-presidency/">informal power</a>, too. In most administrations, they serve as top presidential advisers who play key roles in many major decisions. It is therefore important for presidential candidates to choose a running mate who can help them govern once in office.</p>
<p>Choosing a well-qualified running mate is also a good electoral strategy. My co-author, <a href="http://www.kylekopko.com/">Kyle C. Kopko</a>, and I demonstrate this in our 2020 book, <a href="https://kansaspress.ku.edu/9780700629701/do-running-mates-matter/">“Do Running Mates Matter? The Influence of Vice Presidential Candidates in Presidential Elections</a>.” Voters reward presidential candidates for selecting someone with the experience necessary to serve as vice president by more favorably rating their judgment and delivering greater support at the polls. </p>
<p>The opposite is true when selecting a less-experienced or poorly qualified vice president in a desperate bid for votes – think Sarah Palin, in 2008. That strategy backfires. </p>
<p>In short, running mates mostly have an indirect effect on how people vote by influencing what they think of the presidential candidates. Rarely does the choice of a vice president have direct or targeted effects on voting. That is to say, very few people change their vote simply because they like the vice president or come from the same state or demographic group.</p>
<h2>The media’s role</h2>
<p>A free press is vital to democracy in the U.S. Among other things, it can serve the American people – not to mention presidential campaigns – by helping to provide relevant information about contenders for the vice presidency before they join a party ticket or get elected to office. </p>
<p>Informative news articles can provide answers to the most important questions: What are the potential running mate’s qualifications? What strengths will he or she bring to the White House? If elected, would the new president and vice president work well together?</p>
<p>My research suggests that this is the standard to which journalists and their audiences should aspire as they enter the veepstakes season. This is a consequential choice that requires serious, substantive analysis. You can pay attention to those who treat it as such – and ignore those who don’t.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222681/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Devine does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Media coverage of vice presidential candidates tends to focus on who can help win the election rather than who is qualified to help govern once in office.
Christopher Devine, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Dayton
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/219778
2024-01-18T13:28:38Z
2024-01-18T13:28:38Z
Women presidential candidates like Nikki Haley are more likely to change their positions to reach voters − but this doesn’t necessarily pay off
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568066/original/file-20240105-19-uz1nkq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley greets supporters on Jan. 3, 2024, at a bar in Londonderry, N.H. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/londonderry-nh-former-south-carolina-governor-and-news-photo/1902583157?adppopup=true">Erin Clark/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>While Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley has said that she is “<a href="https://apnews.com/article/nikki-haley-abortion-republican-primary-1827870a52349f3ee2f0c2b50e110b3b">very pro-life,</a>” she has also said that abortion is a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2023/12/18/nikki-haley-democrats-republicans-presidential-2024/">“personal choice</a>.” Her wording on different thorny political issues such as abortion has left <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2023/12/18/nikki-haley-democrats-republicans-presidential-2024/">some voters confused</a> about where she actually stands.</p>
<p>This has led some political observers, such as Politico journalist Michael Kruse, to say that Haley has “made a career of <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/09/29/nikki-haley-profile-trump-gop-00118794">taking both sides</a>,” citing her positions on issues such as identity politics, Donald Trump and abortion.</p>
<p>In the weeks leading up to the Iowa caucuses, an Iowa voter praised Haley for pursing a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2023/12/18/nikki-haley-democrats-republicans-presidential-2024/">“political middle,”</a> noting this allowed the former South Carolina governor to “compromise” and work “both sides.” Conversely, some conservative commentators have also suggested that Haley’s approach is <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/republicans-brace-nikki-haley-ron-desantis-showdown-debates-rcna117786">“inauthentic</a>.” </p>
<p>Haley placed third in the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 15, 2024, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/01/15/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus.html">drawing support from 19% of voters</a> there. </p>
<p>Polls on Jan. 16, 2024, showed Trump’s lead over Haley in the New Hampshire primary, set for <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/">Jan. 23, narrowing</a>. </p>
<p>We are <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/scientific-contributions/Shawn-J-Parry-Giles-2037362650">communication and English</a> scholars <a href="https://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/english/about-us/faculty/bios/david-kaufer.html">who study</a> the role of language and persuasion in politics. We are particularly interested in the ways that speakers and writers adapt their messages and language in different situations and among various voters. We call this concept rhetorical adaptivity. </p>
<p>Our research shows that women presidential candidates, more than the men they run against, often speak differently to different audiences in pursuit of moderation and common ground. They also tend to shift their strategies and messages in response to criticism. And they often pay a price for it.</p>
<h2>Rhetoric and presidential campaigns</h2>
<p>Politicians changing their words and messages to appeal to different audiences is the subject of a book we co-authored in 2023, <a href="https://msupress.org/9781611864663/hillary-clintons-career-in-speeches/#:%7E:text=Hillary%20Clinton's%20Career%20in%20Speeches%20combines%20statistical%20text%2Dmining%20methods,political%20women%20in%20U.S.%20history">“Hillary Clinton’s Career in Speeches</a>: The Promises and Perils of Women’s Rhetorical Adaptivity.”</p>
<p>This project examined how Clinton, her presidential opponents in 2008 and 2016, and the <a href="https://cawp.rutgers.edu/election-watch/presidential-watch-2020">Democratic women</a> who ran for president in 2020 campaigned differently. We found that women more commonly adjusted their language and reshaped their positions to appeal to more voters and to manage the controversies they faced.</p>
<p>In 2016, for example, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/08/hillary-clinton-abortion/494723/">Hillary Clinton tried to find more of a middle ground</a> on abortion by referring to the “fetus” as an “unborn person” and talking about restrictions on “late-term abortions” – even as she defended a “pro-choice” position. </p>
<p>Both Clinton and Haley opponents have questioned their authenticity, citing the politicians’ shifting language and positions. Such challenges aimed to undermine their candidacies by suggesting they lacked the character to be president.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Hillary Clinton wears a red pantsuit and gestures while standing at a podium, in front of a large crowd of people." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hilary Clinton, the Democratic nominee for president in 2016, speaks to a crowd in North Carolina shortly before Election Day on Nov. 8.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/democratic-presidential-nominee-former-secretary-of-state-news-photo/621754706?adppopup=true">Zach Roberts/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Haley’s rhetorical maneuvers</h2>
<p>Haley’s critics also cite her shifting positions, including on issues such as abortion, Palestinians in Gaza and Donald Trump to argue she lacks a political core. </p>
<p>Former Vice President Mike Pence, for example, was quick to condemn Haley’s “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/23/us/abortion-pence-haley-debate.html">compromising stance</a>” on abortion during the August 2023 Republican debate. </p>
<p>Haley’s opponents have also challenged her changing positions on the Israel-Hamas war. As the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Haley supported Israel and disparaged the U.N.’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/15/us/politics/nikki-haley-israel-trump.html">Palestinian refugee agency</a> for “using American money to feed Palestinian hatred of the Jewish state.”</p>
<p>Yet, in the early days of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/15/us/politics/desantis-haley-gaza-refugees-israel.html#:%7E:text=%2C%E2%80%9D%20he%20said.-,Ms.,a%20longstanding%20relationship%20with%20Hamas.">Haley showed more sympathy for the Palestinians</a>. </p>
<p>Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis ridiculed Haley’s compassion as being “<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/16/desantis-haley-gaza-israel-hamas-war-00121869">politically correct</a>.” Haley reaffirmed her pro-Israel priorities in response during a <a href="https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2023/10/20/nikki-haley-says-she-would-support-israel-strengthen-u-s-military-as-president/">speech in Cedar Rapids, Iowa</a>, in mid-October 2023. Haley said she supported Israel and called for the elimination of Hamas. Concern for the Palestinians slipped down the ladder of her priorities.</p>
<p>As a U.N. ambassador, meanwhile, Haley was unwavering in her support for Trump. In her 2019 book, “<a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250266552/withallduerespect">With All Due Respect</a>,” Haley concluded: “In every instance I dealt with Trump, he was truthful, he listened and he was great to work with.”</p>
<p>Since then, Haley has carved a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/nikki-haley-embraces-trump-in-her-vision-of-gop-future-11633424400">middle ground</a> approach to Trump. She has argued, “<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/timeline-nikki-haleys-trump-statements-rcna70456">We need him in the Republican Party</a>. I don’t want us to go back to the days before Trump.” </p>
<p>Yet, in other contexts, she <a href="https://apnews.com/article/jewish-republicans-trump-desantis-2024-45ee4b88592754dfd6ed5332612373b6">disparages Trump</a> for <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/nikki-haley-embraces-trump-in-her-vision-of-gop-future-11633424400">sowing “chaos, vendettas and drama</a>.” </p>
<p><a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/abc-nikki-haley-opens-trump-israel/story?id=105523630">Trump called her out</a> on this discrepancy in the fall of 2023. “She criticizes me one minute, and 15 minutes later, she un-criticizes me.” </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Nikki Haley wears a white jacket and stands in front of a group of seated people, with the backdrop of the American flag. She holds a microphone and points her finger towards the crowd." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Republican presidential hopeful Nikki Haley speaks at a campaign town hall event in Rye, N.H., on Jan. 2, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-un-ambassador-and-2024-republican-presidential-news-photo/1895740236?adppopup=true">Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Haley’s character woes</h2>
<p>Other critics frame Haley’s positions as “flip-flopping.” They don’t interpret what she is doing as moderating her positions or using the language of compromise to build consensus. </p>
<p>Time magazine ran a headline in February 2023 that read: “A Brief History of <a href="https://time.com/6252040/nikki-haley-donald-trump-relationship-history/">Nikki Haley’s Biggest Flip Flops on Trump</a>.” In March 2023, The New York Times featured an opinion piece titled, “The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/02/opinion/nikki-haley-president.html">Serene Hypocrisy of Nikki Haley</a>.” </p>
<p>Challenging the authenticity of presidential candidates is commonplace, but it is especially piercing when the challenge is directed against women candidates. In presidential politics, research shows that <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/glennllopis/2014/02/03/the-most-undervalued-leadership-traits-of-women/?sh=3b7e486338a1">women are conditioned</a> to be uniters, consensus-builders and mitigators of any negativity they face. </p>
<p>Yet, efforts to do this and still “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2023/12/31/desantis-christie-haley-slavery-comments-acostanr-brownstein-vpx.cnn">be all things to all people</a>” often result in women candidates falling into gaffe traps. </p>
<p>Haley’s <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/12/30/1222272908/week-in-politics-haleys-gaffe-trump-on-primary-ballots-biden-and-southern-border">initial refusal to associate “slavery” with the Civil War</a> in December 2023 reinforced a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/28/us/politics/nikki-haley-civil-war-slavery.html">southern trope</a> that some Republicans of color called a “<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/28/republicans-of-color-nikki-haley-civil-war-00133286">tactical blunder</a>.”</p>
<h2>Women’s election challenges</h2>
<p>More leadership experts are recognizing the benefits of political candidates integrating multiple perspectives into their thinking and speech. The <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2018/09/20/2-views-on-leadership-traits-and-competencies-and-how-they-intersect-with-gender/">Pew Research Center</a> found in 2018 that in politics as well as business, women are perceived to be more “compassionate” and “empathic” and are more likely to work out “compromises” than men. </p>
<p>Yet, in presidential campaigns, and especially primaries, compromise, adaptivity and problem-solving are exchanged for hubris, rigidity and ideological purity. Playing to the political middle is treated as politically evasive and opportunistic. </p>
<p>Eventually, women playing to the middle become more gaffe-prone as the campaign unfolds. Women, more than the men they run against, are granted minimal room by opponents and pundits for unforced errors before they are quickly dismissed as “<a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2112616119">unelectable</a>.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219778/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Nikki Haley is the latest American female politician to shift her language, depending on whom she is talking to and where. But this tactic has a flip side, prompting criticism of her as inconsistent.
Shawn J. Parry-Giles, Professor of Communication, University of Maryland
David Kaufer, Professor Emeritus of English, Carnegie Mellon University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/216612
2023-11-06T18:46:40Z
2023-11-06T18:46:40Z
Trump vs. Biden, the sequel, is a battle of two older men with big liabilities
<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/trump-vs-biden-the-sequel-is-a-battle-of-two-older-men-with-big-liabilities" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>In exactly one year this week — on Nov. 5, 2024 — Americans will vote for their next president. Joe Biden and Donald Trump are likely to face each other again.</p>
<p>Both candidates have flaws but so far have batted away <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/americans-offer-unflattering-opinions-on-both-biden-and-trump-in-latest-ap-norc-poll">all contenders from within</a> their own parties. </p>
<p>Biden, who turns 81 in a few days, has the majority of both Democrats and Republicans believing <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-age-poll-trump-2024-620e0a5cfa0039a6448f607c17c7f23e">he’s too old</a> for a second term. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63654388">no serious Democratic challenger has emerged</a>. Unless Biden withdraws, he can be assured of the Democratic nomination, notwithstanding the unenthusiastic support from many in his party. Kamala Harris will return as his running mate.</p>
<p>Trump, 77, has kept Republican rivals at bay. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was thought to be a serious threat to Trump but has faltered badly. </p>
<p>The most recent polls of Iowa Republican caucus-goers show DeSantis <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2023/10/30/iowa-poll-donald-trump-leads-ron-desantis-nikki-haley-tied-presidential-candidates-gop-caucus/71342485007/">now tied for a distant second place</a> with Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina.</p>
<h2>Four indictments? No problem</h2>
<p>Trump towers over DeSantis and Haley in every poll. His <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/24/politics/gop-debate-trump-surrender-analysis/index.html">legal troubles have not dented his support</a> among Republican voters.</p>
<p>If Trump is the Republican nominee, former vice-president Mike Pence won’t return as his running mate. Pence <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/former-us-vp-pence-says-he-is-suspending-his-presidential-campaign-2023-10-28/">has ended his own uninspiring run</a> for the presidency.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1715848577363140645"}"></div></p>
<p>There has been no love lost between the two men since the turbulent end of Trump’s presidency. Trump will have the opportunity to select someone new, making the Republican ticket in 2024 different from that in 2016 and 2020. </p>
<p>Although vice-presidential nominees typically do not swing elections, John McCain’s disastrous decision to select Alaska’s governor, Sarah Palin, as his vice-presidential candidate in the 2008 presidential campaign serves a warning that a poor choice does harm a campaign. </p>
<p>Palin was ill-prepared and a <a href="https://origins.osu.edu/history-news/why-sarah-palin-gamble-didn-t-pay?language_content_entity=en">polarizing presence that detracted from McCain’s message and campaign</a>. </p>
<p>In a Trump-Biden rematch, vice-presidential nominees may matter more than usual. The advanced age of Biden — who would be 82 at the start of his second term, while Trump would be 78 — means that there is higher than normal likelihood of the vice-president assuming the presidential office. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1719008794464891056"}"></div></p>
<h2>What to watch for</h2>
<p>Rematches in presidential elections are rare. The most recent was in the 1950s, when Dwight D. Eisenhower faced Adlai Stevenson in two consecutive elections. </p>
<p>Democrat Grover Cleveland stands alone in American history as the only president to serve non-consecutive terms — the <a href="https://www.thegazette.com/guest-columnists/weve-had-two-clevelands-so-how-about-two-trumps/">exclusive club that Trump hopes to join</a>. Just like Trump, Cleveland served one term and was defeated by Benjamin Harrison, but returned to power by soundly defeating Harrison four years later. </p>
<p>Biden’s campaign will undoubtedly be carefully stage-managed to limit his travels and public engagements. He will likely rely on others — Harris and other Democratic party politicians — for the hard slogging. His campaign will have a <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/biden-hopes-get-re-elected-little-help-friends-rcna85898">“Team Biden” approach</a> in an effort to convince voters he has a capable — and younger — team behind him.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/70-plus-seems-the-new-50-for-male-politicians-but-theyre-threatening-the-world-order-194098">70-plus seems the new 50 for male politicians, but they're threatening the world order</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Trump, on the other hand, will aim to keep up hectic travel to swing states if only to differentiate himself from Biden. Not unsurprisingly, Trump’s campaign will be less about the Republican party and his team and far more about him. </p>
<p>Biden’s unprecedented <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/biden-makes-history-striking-auto-workers-picket-line-rcna117348">attendance at United Auto Workers’ strike rally</a> in Michigan in September points to upcoming battlegrounds that will help decide the 2024 election. </p>
<p>Given the nature of American elections, some states routinely vote Republican, and others Democrat. New York, for example, has been a Democratic state for the past nine presidential elections. </p>
<p>However, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia swing back and forth. These are the <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/3870203-these-6-states-will-determine-the-2024-presidential-election/">states that must be won for a candidate to be elected president</a>. Trump won all six in 2016 but lost in five in 2020. </p>
<h2>Looking back at Nixon vs. Kennedy</h2>
<p>Presidential elections are influenced, and in some cases even decided, by the personal appearances and day-to-day activities of the candidate. For both Trump and Biden, the <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/us-presidents/kennedy-nixon-debates">1960 presidential debate is instructive</a>. </p>
<p>Richard Nixon came to the debate with a lack of makeup, a five o’clock shadow, grey suit and directed his comments at the studio audience rather than the TV camera. </p>
<p>In contrast, John F. Kennedy was tanned, blue suited and spoke directly to the camera. Those who watched the debate on television declared Kennedy the winner, while those who listened on the radio concluded that Nixon’s performance was superior.</p>
<p>For Biden in particular, but also Trump, a stumble while climbing stairs, a momentary loss of memory or citing incorrect facts during a speech will be mercilessly exploited by the opponent. </p>
<p>In an environment were cameras are everywhere and social media is the major tool used to reach voters, both Biden’s and Trump’s campaigns will be tightly scripted and rely as much as possible on pre-recorded video. </p>
<p>Whatever else the 2024 election campaign will hold, a Biden-Trump rematch offers American voters two contenders they know intimately. Like all sequels, that’s both good and bad news.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216612/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Klassen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
On Nov. 5, 2024, Americans will likely have to choose between two older men as president. Here’s what to watch out for in the second showdown between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
Thomas Klassen, Professor, School of Public Policy and Administration, York University, Canada
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/210444
2023-08-08T19:07:18Z
2023-08-08T19:07:18Z
Kamala Harris has tied the record for the most tie-breaking votes in Senate history – a brief overview of what vice presidents do
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540877/original/file-20230802-6332-61kj04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C21%2C4690%2C3453&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Vice President Kamala Harris arrives to cast a tiebreaking vote in the U.S. Senate.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vice-president-kamala-harris-arrives-at-the-senate-chamber-news-photo/1500382345">Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Jan. 20, 2021, <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-is-kamala-harris-joe-bidens-pick-for-vice-president-144122">Kamala Harris</a> became the <a href="https://theconversation.com/kamala-harris-represents-an-opportunity-for-coalition-building-between-blacks-and-asian-americans-144547">first African American, the first person of South Asian descent</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/before-kamala-harris-became-bidens-running-mate-shirley-chisholm-and-other-black-women-aimed-for-the-white-house-143655">first</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/call-in-the-women-chrystia-freeland-and-kamala-harriss-new-roles-respond-to-the-times-144896">woman</a> to serve as vice president of the United States.</p>
<p>More recently, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/kamala-harris-tiebreaker-vote-db39d642bc423f4984b0ad7b32139ecb">she made history again</a> by casting her 31st tie-breaking vote in the Senate, matching only one other vice president’s record for such votes. <a href="https://rollcall.com/2023/07/12/harris-ties-calhouns-191-year-old-record-for-breaking-senate-ties/">John C. Calhoun</a>, who was vice president from 1825 to 1832, needed all eight years of his term to reach that number. In contrast, Harris has only been in office for two and a half years.</p>
<p>If her tie-breaking continues, Harris could end up as one of the most <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/3689844-why-kamala-harris-is-already-among-the-most-consequential-vice-presidents-in-history/">consequential</a> vice presidents in history, casting the deciding votes on several laws, <a href="https://theconversation.com/states-pick-judges-very-differently-from-us-supreme-court-appointments-160142">judicial nominations</a> and spending plans. However, this distinction says more about the Senate than the amount of power the vice president actually wields.</p>
<h2>The ‘most insignificant’ office?</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="John Adams" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">John Adams, the nation’s first vice president, called the job ‘the most insignificant Office.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gilbert_Stuart,_John_Adams,_c._1800-1815,_NGA_42933.jpg">Gilbert Stuart, National Gallery of Art via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The role of vice president is only mentioned in the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript">U.S. Constitution</a> a handful of times.</p>
<p>Article I, Section 3 says that the vice president “<a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript#toc-section-3-">shall be President of the Senate but shall have no Vote</a>” except in the event of a tie. Historically, ties have been rare. Since 1789, only <a href="https://www.senate.gov/legislative/TieVotes.htm">299 tie-breaking votes</a> have been cast, and 12 vice presidents, including current President Joe Biden, <a href="https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/resources/pdf/VPTies.pdf">never cast a single one</a>.</p>
<p>The beginning of Article II, Section 1 explains how vice presidents are elected, which was later revised by the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxii">12th Amendment</a>. The end of that section states that presidential power “<a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript#toc-section-1--2">shall devolve on the Vice President</a>” in the event of the president’s “Death, Resignation, or Inability to discharge the Powers and Duties of the said Office.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/article-2/section-1/clause-6/succession-clause-for-the-presidency">As written, it is unclear</a> whether this meant that a vice president became the new president or was simply serving in an acting capacity. This was later clarified with the passage of the 25th Amendment, which states that “<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxxv">the Vice President shall become President</a>.” The 25th Amendment also outlines how to fill a vacancy in the vice presidency, and it provides a mechanism for the vice president to serve temporarily as president if a president becomes “<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-25th-amendment-says-about-presidents-who-are-unable-to-serve-102825">unable to discharge the powers and duties</a> of his office.”</p>
<p>Finally, Article II, Section 4 states that vice presidents, like presidents, can be “<a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript#toc-section-4--2">removed from Office</a> on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.” </p>
<p>So, other than <a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/learning/general/onthisday/big/1010.html">staying out of trouble</a> to avoid impeachment and waiting around to <a href="https://tbsnews.net/world/what-happens-when-us-president-dies-or-incapacitated-141037">serve as</a> – or replace – the president, vice presidents are really only obligated to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/mike-pence-casts-tie-breaking-vote-confirm-betsy-devos-education-n717836">occasionally cast a tiebreaking vote</a> in the Senate. This means that the great majority of the time, vice presidents have no real job to do.</p>
<p>John Adams, the first U.S. vice president, once complained to his wife that the vice presidency was “<a href="https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Adams/04-09-02-0278">the most insignificant Office</a> that ever the Invention of Man contrived or his Imagination conceived.” </p>
<p>However, not all have been upset about such inactivity. Woodrow Wilson’s vice president, Thomas Marshall, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/wilson-thomas-marshall/">quipped after he retired</a>: “I don’t want to work … [but] I wouldn’t mind being Vice President again.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Will Hays with Warren Harding and Calvin Coolidge" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Warren Harding, center, wanted his vice president, Calvin Coolidge, at right, to play an active role in governing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/chairman-of-the-republican-national-committee-will-h-hays-news-photo/501167655">FPG/Keystone View Company/Archive Photos via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The ‘last voice in the room’</h2>
<p>Wilson’s successor as president, Warren Harding, had unconventional views about the importance of the role of the vice president. He thought that “the vice president should be <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CDOC-104sdoc26/pdf/CDOC-104sdoc26.pdf">more than a mere substitute in waiting</a>,” and he wished for his vice president, Calvin Coolidge, “to be a helpful part” of his administration. Coolidge later became the <a href="https://www.senate.gov/about/officers-staff/vice-president/VP_Calvin_Coolidge.htm">first vice president</a> in history to attend Cabinet meetings on a regular basis. </p>
<p>In 1923, Harding died, likely of a <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/after-90-years-president-warren-hardings-death-still-unsettled">heart attack</a>, and Coolidge succeeded him as president. “My experience in the Cabinet,” <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CDOC-104sdoc26/pdf/CDOC-104sdoc26.pdf">Coolidge later recalled</a>, “was of supreme value to me when I became President.”</p>
<p>After Harding and Coolidge, many later presidents reverted back to the tradition of keeping vice presidents an arm’s length away, even on key matters. Franklin D. Roosevelt, for instance, <a href="https://www.atomicheritage.org/history/manhattan-project">kept the atomic bomb a secret</a> from Vice President Harry S. Truman, who <a href="https://www.atomicheritage.org/profile/harry-truman">didn’t find out</a> about it until Roosevelt’s death.</p>
<p>For the 1960 presidential election, two-term Vice President Richard Nixon faced off against Sen. John F. Kennedy. At one point during the campaign, reporters asked then-President Dwight D. Eisenhower: “Can you think of a major contribution that Nixon has made to your administration?” Eisenhower replied: “<a href="https://www.virginiabusiness.com/article/how-many-u-s-vice-presidents-can-you-name/">Well, if you give me a week I might think of one</a>.” Nixon lost that election.</p>
<p>In 1976, Jimmy Carter picked Sen. Walter Mondale as his running mate. In a memo sent to Carter after winning the election, Mondale argued that “[t]he <a href="http://www2.mnhs.org/library/findaids/00697/pdf/Mondale-CarterMemo.pdf">biggest single problem of our recent administrations</a> has been the failure of the President to be exposed to independent analysis not conditioned by what it is thought he wants to hear or often what others want him to hear.” </p>
<p>Mondale’s vision for the role of vice president was “to offer impartial advice” so that Carter wouldn’t be “shielded from points of view that [he] should hear.” <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/07/20/how-the-vice-president-became-a-powerful-and-influential-white-house-player/">Carter agreed</a> and subsequently made Mondale an integral part of his inner circle.</p>
<p>Biden served 36 years in the Senate before leaving to become Barack Obama’s vice president. When he agreed to be Obama’s running mate, Biden said he wanted to be the “<a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-2012-09-06-sns-rt-us-usa-campaign-bidenbre8850xj-20120906-story.html">last man in the room</a>” whenever important decisions were being made so he could give Obama his unfiltered opinion. When Biden picked Harris as his running mate, he said he “asked Kamala to be the <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-harris-make-appearance-historic-democratic-ticket/story?id=72327968">last voice in the room</a>,” to “[c]hallenge [his] assumptions if she disagrees,” and to “[a]sk the hard questions.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Vice President Walter Mondale, right, was an active part of President Jimmy Carter’s administration.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CarterMondale/160e66151d984d9fb00f4da936a7252f/photo">AP Photo/Harvey Georges</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>An ally in an increasingly divided Senate</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm">Under the rules of the U.S. Senate</a>, if just one lawmaker doesn’t want a bill to advance, they can attempt to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HJuaQL3KRI">delay</a> its passage indefinitely via <a href="https://theconversation.com/most-us-states-dont-have-a-filibuster-nor-do-many-democratic-countries-156093">the filibuster</a>. A supermajority of three-fifths of the senators, or 60 of the 100, is required <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-senate-filibuster-explained-and-why-it-should-be-allowed-to-die-123551">to stop the filibuster</a> – or signal that one would not succeed – and proceed to a vote.</p>
<p>Over the years, the Senate has made <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/23/13709518/budget-reconciliation-explained">various procedural</a> <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/nuclear-option-what-it-why-it-matters-n742076">changes</a> to the filibuster, limiting when it can be used.</p>
<p>The end result of <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/filibuster-reform-short-guide">these reforms</a> is that the Senate is now empowered to do more with just a simple majority. In addition, in recent years, the <a href="https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm">Senate has become increasingly divided</a>. Together, this has created the conditions that have empowered Harris to cast so many tie-breaking votes so quickly, solidifying both her place in history and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-biden-might-drop-his-vice-president-and-reasons-why-he-shouldnt-199655">her place alongside Biden in the 2024 election</a>.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-does-the-vice-president-do-152467">article</a> initially published Jan. 19, 2021.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210444/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Holzer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Kamala Harris is on track to be one of the most influential vice presidents in history. This says more about the Senate than the amount of power the vice president actually wields.
Joshua Holzer, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Westminster College
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/204524
2023-04-26T14:09:15Z
2023-04-26T14:09:15Z
Why a Biden-Harris reelection ticket makes sense for the Democrats in 2024
<p>After months of speculation, the US president, Joe Biden, has confirmed his intention to seek reelection in 2024. In his <a href="https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1650801827728986112?s=20">video announcement</a>, Biden promised to stand up against “MAGA extremists” and called on Americans to give him the chance to “finish the job”, saying:</p>
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<p>When I ran for president four years ago, I said we are in a battle for the soul of America. And we still are. This is not a time to be complacent. That’s why I’m running for reelection.</p>
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<p>The Republican party countered immediately, showing an AI-generated <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLMMxgtxQ1Y">video</a> on the GOP <a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3o7kbpTUQ5-0WTMIp8sVwA">YouTube</a> channel that depicted a dystopian future if Biden was reelected, using fake reports of increasing crime rates, illegal immigration and financial chaos.</p>
<p>There seems to be little enthusiasm for a second Biden term among Americans. His Gallup <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/329384/presidential-approval-ratings-joe-biden.aspx">job approval rating</a> at the end of his third year in office was just 40% – below Ronald Reagan’s (41%) in 1983 and only a point above Donald Trump’s in 2019 (39%).</p>
<p>According to a recent <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democrats-biden-reelection-bid-acceptance-more-than-excitement-poll-2023-04-24/">CBS News poll</a>, almost half (45%) of Democrats think that Biden shouldn’t run. A huge 86% of those who thought he shouldn’t run stated that their main cause of concern was Biden’s age, while 77% felt it was time for someone new.</p>
<p>However, a slew of opinion polls assembled by the influential US politics blog <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/">FiveThirtyEight</a> have found that Biden would beat any of the other Democrat politicians touted as possible nominees.</p>
<h2>The age-old question</h2>
<p>Born on November 20 1942, Biden would be 82 at the start of a second term and 86 by its end – the oldest person to be elected president and serve in the office. One focus group of swing voters deemed Biden too old, with a panellist <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/02/18/1157955440/biden-age-2024-election">saying</a>: “Give that man a break!”</p>
<p>But columnist Abhi Rahman <a href="https://www.star-telegram.com/opinion/opn-columns-blogs/other-voices/article273801215.html">has argued</a> that Biden’s age should be seen as a strength, not a weakness, and that he has the potential to make significant ground for Democrats in the next election, much like Reagan <a href="https://www.270towin.com/1984_Election/">did in 1984</a> – another president whose age was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1984/10/11/us/reagan-criticizes-comments-on-age.html">raised as a concern</a> by his opponents.</p>
<p>Just like Biden, even Reagan’s own party was <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/1980/0623/062345.html">worried about his age</a> before his first election in 1980, at the (relatively) youthful age of 70. Republican leaders’ worries about whether Reagan would be able to “maintain his energy level” throughout his presidency were <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/i-hope-there-s-age-limit-jimmy-carter-says-he-n1055836">underlined by a claim</a> by former president Jimmy Carter that he could not have dealt with the challenges of the office at the age 80.</p>
<p>Republicans are less likely to point to Biden’s age as an issue. Trump, currently the likeliest candidate to be the Republican nominee, has said that <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3553096-trump-says-life-begins-at-80-amid-questions-about-bidens-age/">Biden’s age is not an issue</a> – which is unsurprising given that Trump will be almost 79 at the next election.</p>
<p>Instead, Republicans have focused on the issues that continue to challenge the Biden administration: <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/23/us/politics/republicans-inflation-federal-reserve-powell.html">inflation</a> and <a href="https://nypost.com/2023/04/23/house-republicans-deliver-on-commitment-to-secure-the-border-because-biden-never-will/">immigration</a> concerns at the <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/19/house-republicans-mayorkas-southern-border-00092808">southern border</a>.</p>
<p>While Democrats are not entirely happy with Biden running again because of his age, it is unlikely anyone will pose a significant threat to his nomination. Carter was the last incumbent to be <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/01/17/686186156/how-ted-kennedys-80-challenge-to-president-carter-broke-the-democratic-party">challenged for the nomination</a> when Senator Edward Kennedy threw his hat into the ring in 1980. Kennedy was unsuccessful then and his nephew, Robert F Kennedy Jr, poses no serious challenge to Biden with his <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/19/politics/robert-f-kennedy-jr-2024-announcement/index.html">current campaign</a> for the nomination.</p>
<h2>Running mate</h2>
<p>Biden’s confirmation of his intention to run included his selection of the vice-president, Kamala Harris, as his running mate. <a href="https://www.govexec.com/management/2023/02/could-biden-choose-new-running-mate-2024/383354/">Questions had been raised</a> about whether Biden might have chosen someone else for the ticket. Instead, he has identified Harris as his nominated successor, an issue that had <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/30/harris-democrats-worry/">concerned</a> many Democrats.</p>
<p>In her <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-harris-officially-announce-2024-re-election-campaign">statement</a>, Harris called the 2024 election “a pivotal moment in our history” and told Americans that she and the president “look forward to finishing the job, winning this battle for the soul of the nation, and serving the American people for four more years in the White House”.</p>
<p>Harris’s selection is important. As columnist Thomas Friedman <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/25/opinion/kamala-harris-joe-biden-2024-reelection.html">wrote in the New York Times</a>, Biden’s age – and possible failing health while in office – means Americans are voting as much for the vice-president as they are Biden, “more than in any other election in American history”.</p>
<p>But why break a winning formula? Recent <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/desantis-trails-far-behind-trump-republican-support-2024-presidential-nomination">polls indicate</a> that a Biden-Harris ticket currently offers the best possible chance for a Democrat victory against either Trump or Florida’s governor Ron DeSantis.</p>
<p>Unlike Trump, Biden has portrayed himself as a <a href="https://www.axios.com/2020/11/07/biden-president-for-all-americans">president for all Americans</a>, not just those who voted for him. His public courting of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/03/business/economy/biden-infrastructure-senate-republicans.html">Republican collaboration</a> on the passing of his landmark infrastructure bills made small steps to bridging the partisan gap in American politics. This may provide a bridge for the Democratic party of tomorrow to appeal to some Republicans.</p>
<p>Such bipartisan appeal gains even more importance when considering that the 2024 presidential election may be the end of a cycle – the passing of the old guard.</p>
<p>The 2028 election will require a new generation of political leaders to step into the vacuum. If he wins in 2024, Biden will <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/amendments/amendment-xxii">constitutionally</a> be unable to stand, having had two terms in office. If Trump loses for a second time, he will not be trusted with the nomination again. And if Biden loses, it is unlikely he will run at the age of 86.</p>
<p>Increasingly politically active millennial voters, who turned out in <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/11/10/1135810302/turnout-among-young-voters-was-the-second-highest-for-a-midterm-in-past-30-years">high numbers</a> in the 2022 midterms, have the potential to <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c361e372-769e-45cd-a063-f5c0a7767cf4">change</a> the political landscape of the 2028 election, and are becoming the target audience of the next set of presidential candidates. Who these will be is currently a mystery, but contenders will likely be jockeying for the box-seat between 2024 and the next election. </p>
<p>Until then, it appears almost certain that <a href="https://apnews.com/article/bernie-sanders-biden-endorsement-2024-d8f0772b117e2bf83e1062708ea651c0">Democrats</a> will put their faith in the Biden-Harris ticket for one more term.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204524/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dafydd Townley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
If elected, Biden would be the oldest person to occupy the White House. But he’s by far the most popular candidate the Democrats have.
Dafydd Townley, Teaching Fellow in International Security, University of Portsmouth
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/203329
2023-04-11T06:25:27Z
2023-04-11T06:25:27Z
There’s a growing gap between countries advancing LGBTQ+ rights, and those going backwards
<p>Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong joined 50,000 people to march in support of queer rights across the Sydney Harbour Bridge for World Pride in early March. A week earlier, Albanese became the first sitting prime minister to march in Sydney’s Mardi Gras, something he’s done over several decades.</p>
<p>And yet at the same time, in another part of the world, Uganda’s parliament passed <a href="https://theconversation.com/ugandas-new-anti-lgbtq-law-could-lead-to-death-penalty-for-same-sex-offences-202376">a string of draconian measures</a> against homosexuality, including possible death sentences for “aggravated homosexuality”. Any “promotion” of homosexuality is also outlawed.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ugandas-new-anti-lgbtq-law-could-lead-to-death-penalty-for-same-sex-offences-202376">Uganda's new anti-LGBTQ+ law could lead to death penalty for same-sex 'offences'</a>
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<p>Seven years ago, I co-wrote a book with Jonathan Symons called Queer Wars. Back then, we suggested there was <a href="https://researchers.mq.edu.au/en/publications/queer-wars-the-new-global-polarization-over-gay-rights">a growing gap</a> between countries in which sexual and gender diversity was becoming more acceptable, and those where repression was increasing. </p>
<p>Sadly, that analysis seems even more relevant today.</p>
<h2>A growing gap</h2>
<p>Some countries have been unwinding criminal sanctions around homosexuality, which are often the legacy of colonialism. This includes, in recent years, former British colonies <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/08/22/singapore-decriminalize-gay-sex">Singapore</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/06/indian-supreme-court-decriminalises-homosexuality">India</a>.</p>
<p>But others have been imposing new and more vicious penalties for any deviation from stereotypical assumptions of heterosexual masculine superiority (what Australian sociologist Raewyn Connell <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0891243205278639">terms</a> “hegemonic masculinity”).</p>
<p>Anti-gay legislation is currently pending in Ghana, which led US Vice President Kamala Harris to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-43822234">express concerns</a> on a recent visit.</p>
<p>These moves echo the deep homophobia of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has <a href="https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/putins-anti-gay-war-on-ukraine/">bizarrely linked</a> intervention in Ukraine to protecting traditional values against LGBTQ+ infiltration.</p>
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<p>Meanwhile, reports from Afghanistan suggest that anyone identified as “LGBT” is <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/01/26/afghanistan-taliban-target-lgbt-afghans">in danger of being killed</a>.</p>
<p>Indonesia recently passed legislation <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/06/indonesia-passes-legislation-banning-sex-outside-marriage">penalising all sex outside marriage</a>. This follows <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13639811.2022.2038871">years of anti-queer rhetoric</a> from Indonesian leaders and crackdowns in regional areas.</p>
<p>And while the Biden administration is supportive of queer rights globally, the extraordinary hysteria <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/07/cpac-anti-trans-rhetoric">around trans issues in the Republican Party</a> reminds us the West has no inherent claim to moral superiority.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-going-on-with-the-wave-of-gop-bills-about-trans-teens-utah-provides-clues-199851">What's going on with the wave of GOP bills about trans teens? Utah provides clues</a>
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<h2>Where to next?</h2>
<p>Speaking at the World Pride Human Rights Conference, both Wong and Attorney General Mark Dreyfus made it clear Australia would press for recognition of sexuality and gender identity as deserving protection, as part of <a href="https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/sydney-worldpride-human-rights-conference-opening-statement">our commitment to human rights</a>.</p>
<p>Wong also announced a <a href="https://www.themandarin.com.au/213443-wong-announces-international-fund-for-lgbt-rights/">new Inclusion and Equality Fund</a> to support queer community organisations within our region.</p>
<p>Australian governments have usually been wary of loud assertions of support for queer rights. This is partly due to a reasonable fear this merely reinforces the perception that such language reflects <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/african-studies-review/article/abs/locating-neocolonialism-tradition-and-human-rights-in-ugandas-gay-death-penalty/33A06F4F33CF586E20E208BE790E71E0">a sense of Western superiority</a>, unwilling to acknowledge other societies may have very different attitudes towards gender and sexuality.</p>
<p>Australia is part of the Equal Rights Coalition, an intergovernmental body of 42 countries dedicated to the protection of the rights of LGBTQ+ people, and has supported sexual and gender rights in the <a href="https://humanrights.gov.au/our-work/rights-and-freedoms/australias-second-universal-periodic-review-human-rights">country reviews</a> undertaken by the United Nations Human Rights Commission.</p>
<p>Australia has a minimal presence in Uganda, and direct representations are unlikely to have much effect. Uganda is a member of the Commonwealth, as are Ghana, Kenya and Zambia, where official homophobia appears to be increasing. But there’s little evidence the Australian government sees this as a significant foreign policy forum, or is prepared to push for sexual rights through its institutions.</p>
<p>As persecution on the basis of sexuality and gender identity increases, more people will seek to flee their countries. Queer refugees face double jeopardy: they’re not safe at home, but they’re often equally unsafe in their diasporic communities, which have inherited the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/01/lgbt-refugees-untold-story/">deep prejudices of their homelands</a>.</p>
<p>The UN’s refugee agency <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/lgbtiq-persons.html">reports</a> that most people seeking asylum because of their sexuality are unwilling to disclose this, because of discrimination within their own ethnic communities. This makes it impossible to have accurate numbers. But a clear signal from Australia would be a powerful statement of support – that it understands the situation and welcomes people who need flee because of their sexuality or gender expression.</p>
<p>An official Canadian government document <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/refugees/canada-role/2slgbtqi-plus.html">states</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Canada has a proud history of providing protection to and helping to resettle the world’s most vulnerable groups. That includes those in the Two-Spirit, lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, intersex, and additional sexually and gender diverse community.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Theirs is a model worth following.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203329/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dennis Altman is Patron of the Pride Foundation, which supports queer refugees and asylum seekers.</span></em></p>
In March, Albanese joined 50,000 people to march in support of queer rights. At the same time, in another part of the world, Uganda passed a string of draconian anti-gay laws.
Dennis Altman, VC Fellow LaTrobe University, La Trobe University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/202964
2023-04-05T15:44:56Z
2023-04-05T15:44:56Z
Kamala Harris’s visit underscores the tricky choices Zambia is making about international allies
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519556/original/file-20230405-19-3ws3in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Zambia president Hakainde Hichilema and US vice-president Kamala Harris in Lusaka. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Salim Dawood/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>US vice-president Kamala Harris’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/03/31/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-and-president-hichilema-of-zambia-in-joint-press-conference/">recent visit</a> to Zambia is an example the country’s increased engagement with western nations. It gave fresh impetus to the view that Zambian president Hakainde Hichilema is strongly aligning the country to the west. </p>
<p>This has been evident from his <a href="https://fizambia.com/speech-delivered-by-president-hakainde-hichilema-at-the-mining-indaba-2022/">pro-business rhetoric</a>, <a href="https://theafricadebate.com/he-hakainde-hichilema">western education</a> and <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/08/31/pr22297-imf-executive-board-approves-new-extended-credit-facility-arrangement-for-zambia#:%7E:text=to%20Copy%20Link-,IMF%20Executive%20Board%20Approves%20New,Facility%20(ECF)%20Arrangement%20for%20Zambia&text=The%20IMF%20Board%20approves%20SDR,resilient%2C%20and%20more%20inclusive%20growth">re-engagement with multilateral financial institutions</a> and partners <a href="https://www.openzambia.com/politics/2022/4/7/president-hichilema-hails-good-bilateral-relations-with-the-uk">in the UK</a>, the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/03/31/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-and-president-hichilema-of-zambia-in-joint-press-conference/">US</a> and the <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/pt/press-room/20220616IPR33213/president-of-zambia-to-european-parliament-zambia-is-back-in-business">European Union</a>.</p>
<p>But this re-engagement has stopped short of a full pendulum swing. For example, the country <a href="https://africa.cgtn.com/2022/10/14/leading-lights-zambias-hichilema-keen-to-promote-deeper-ties-with-china/">retains strong ties to China</a>.</p>
<p>Hichilema came to power in August 2021 on a promise of domestic economic revival, good governance and a business friendly approach. He set out a new direction for the country’s foreign policy in his <a href="https://zambiahighcommission.ca/wp/inauguration-speech-by-the-president-of-the-republic-of-zambia-his-excellency-mr-hakainde-hichilema-delivered-on-tuesday-24th-august-2021-at-the-national-heroes-stadium-lusaka/">inauguration speech</a>. This emphasised economic diplomacy and partnerships across the emerging geopolitical divide between western countries, and China and Russia.</p>
<p>Hichilema’s support for democratic institutions and good governance has unlocked some investment. But this will take time to translate into tangible benefits for citizens. At the same time, China is recalculating the nature of its economic engagement with Zambia. This could mean a potential shortfall of investment in the short term when it is needed most.</p>
<p>The US is keen to address this gap and support ongoing reforms. Harris <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/03/31/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-and-president-hichilema-of-zambia-in-joint-press-conference/">announced</a> a US$16 million grant for new Zambian programmes. These include anti-corruption and other reform efforts. She also announced a memorandum of understanding on commercial projects and trade.</p>
<p>Her visit has been widely interpreted as part of America’s efforts to counter what it perceives as <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/U.S.-Strategy-Toward-Sub-Saharan-Africa-FINAL.pdf#page=5">Chinese influence on the continent</a>. Most African leaders don’t share such a polarised view. They are keen to assert their own agency and choose international partners on a <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-two-elephants-fight-how-the-global-south-uses-non-alignment-to-avoid-great-power-rivalries-199418">more pragmatic basis</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/03/zambias-developing-international-relations">My new paper</a> argues that Zambia’s interests are best served by remaining neutral on global geopolitics. It must maintain relations with partners in the east and the west, as well as nurture economic ties with its neighbours.</p>
<h2>US courting Zambia</h2>
<p>Zambia is important to the US for several reasons relating to global issues. These include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the effectiveness of the <a href="https://clubdeparis.org/sites/default/files/annex_common_framework_for_debt_treatments_beyond_the_dssi.pdf">G20 Common Framework for Debt Treatments</a> </p></li>
<li><p>as a democratic state and potential African ally for western powers on the continent </p></li>
<li><p>as a valuable producer of natural resources required for the global green transition, especially copper, cobalt, nickel and manganese. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>The importance of Zambia has been underlined by successive high-level visits. These include US treasury secretary Janet Yellen meeting Hichilema on debt restructuring in Lusaka <a href="https://zm.usembassy.gov/u-s-treasury-secretary-janet-yellen-visits-zambia-strengthens-u-s-zambia-ties/">in January</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-two-elephants-fight-how-the-global-south-uses-non-alignment-to-avoid-great-power-rivalries-199418">When two elephants fight: how the global south uses non-alignment to avoid great power rivalries</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The developing relationship extends beyond finance. In 2022, US Africa Command <a href="https://www.africom.mil/article/34379/us-africa-command-visit-launches-new-us-zambia-security-cooperation">announced</a> a security cooperation agreement with Zambia, for which it established an office at the US embassy in Lusaka. Since 2014, the US government has invested over US$8 million in assistance for <a href="https://www.africom.mil/article/34379/us-africa-command-visit-launches-new-us-zambia-security-cooperation">training Zambian battalions</a> before deployment to the United Nations peacekeeping mission in the Central African Republic.</p>
<p>Zambia has also caught the attention of western partners by repeatedly voting against the war in Ukraine <a href="https://developmentreimagined.com/2022/04/08/africanvotesonukraine/">in the UN</a>. In doing so, it broke ranks with larger players in southern Africa.</p>
<p>However, Zambian officials have pointed out to me that the vote is against the war, and not against Russia itself. The former Soviet Union, of which Russia was part, was the first to recognise Zambia as an independent state <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/dated-event/zambia-gains-independence-britain">in 1964</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man wearing a suit and tie speaks into a small microphone at a podium." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519310/original/file-20230404-1269-9ynrlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519310/original/file-20230404-1269-9ynrlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519310/original/file-20230404-1269-9ynrlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519310/original/file-20230404-1269-9ynrlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519310/original/file-20230404-1269-9ynrlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519310/original/file-20230404-1269-9ynrlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519310/original/file-20230404-1269-9ynrlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hakainde Hichilema condemned Russia’s war in Ukraine in June 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">© European Union 2022</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Hichilema has been keen to maintain relations with all partners. This has been most acute in his management of the relationship with Zambia’s “<a href="https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-05-31/President-Xi-hails-all-weather-friendship-between-China-Zambia-1aueerNVIkg/index.html">all-weather friend</a>”, China.</p>
<h2>Positive neutrality</h2>
<p>Hichilema has taken an assertive approach to international relations. He has retained Zambia’s tradition of “<a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/03/zambias-developing-international-relations/introduction">positive neutrality</a>”. While he has resuscitated relations with western partners, especially the US and the UK, his government has also maintained important relationships with China.</p>
<p>Successive Zambian leaders have had to balance the macro-economic importance of China with negative local perceptions. The relationship with China is a domestic political issue of growing importance. Many Zambians are suspicious of, or even hostile to, Chinese enterprises, citing unfair labour practices and <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/05/china/china-zambia-murder-intl-hnk/index.html">human rights violations</a>.</p>
<p>But Hichilema has maintained Zambia’s relationship with China. A phone call with president Xi Jinping <a href="http://sv.china-embassy.gov.cn/exp/Hoy/202206/t20220601_10697300.htm">in May 2022</a> was instrumental in unlocking China’s positive engagement in an ongoing multilateral debt negotiation. It also positioned Zambia at the forefront of Beijing’s own “<a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/2022-12/2022-12-15-africa-china-debt-distress-vines-et-al.pdf">new development paradigm</a>”. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-china-tensions-how-africa-can-avoid-being-caught-in-a-new-cold-war-201679">US-China tensions: how Africa can avoid being caught in a new Cold War</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This aims to support small and medium-sized enterprises, human capital investments and green energy development, and emphasise foreign direct investment flows rather than loan financing.</p>
<p>Hichilema’s self-styled “chief marketing officer” approach has also unlocked new investments and development support from a diversified mix of partners. These include Brazil, India, Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.</p>
<p>The most concerted effort has been to reinforce Zambia’s regional relationships. Hichilema has made multiple regional visits – Botswana, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Malawi, Ethiopia, Eswatini, Kenya, South Africa, Tanzania, Namibia and Rwanda have been on his itinerary. These far outnumber his engagements outside Africa. He has entered bilateral arrangements with neighbours on agriculture, manufacturing and mining.</p>
<p>The US has recognised the attention Hichilema has placed on the development of regional value chains. In 2022, the US endorsed a memorandum of understanding with Zambia and the DRC to <a href="https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-releases-signed-memorandum-of-understanding-with-the-democratic-republic-of-congo-and-zambia-to-strengthen-electric-vehicle-battery-value-chain/">develop electric vehicle batteries</a>. Such international support could be critical for overcoming industry scepticism about infrastructure and regulatory deficiencies.</p>
<h2>Looking forward</h2>
<p>Harris’s visit is significant in maintaining the momentum of US engagement in Zambia, continuing efforts to unlock the debt process and supporting the economic value of democracy. New investment announcements will be welcomed by a Zambian administration keen to show results from its economic diplomacy.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/africa-can-use-great-power-rivalry-to-its-benefit-here-is-how-172662">Africa can use great power rivalry to its benefit: Here is how</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But the US should expect Hichilema to maintain a neutral course on geopolitics, especially in its relationship with China. Hichilema stressed <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/03/31/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-and-president-hichilema-of-zambia-in-joint-press-conference/">during the press conference</a> with Harris that</p>
<blockquote>
<p>good relations with the United States (do) not preclude good relations with China, and vice versa.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202964/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Vandome does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
President Hichilema’s self-styled ‘chief marketing officer’ approach has unlocked new investments from a diverse mix of partners.
Christopher Vandome, Senior Research Fellow, Chatham House and PhD candidate, International Relations, University of the Witwatersrand
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/199655
2023-03-02T16:55:46Z
2023-03-02T16:55:46Z
Why Biden might drop his vice president (and reasons why he shouldn’t)
<p>Despite receiving the greatest number of <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/11/25/937248659/president-elect-biden-hits-80-million-votes-in-year-of-record-turnout">votes</a> cast in a presidential election, there is <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/11/kamala-harris-joe-biden-new-vp-2024.html">discussion</a> among some Democrats and commentators about breaking up the Biden-Harris <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/3728474-heres-a-game-plan-biden-replaces-harris-with-newsom-and-then-resigns/">partnership</a> for the 2024 election.</p>
<p>While Joe Biden has become the target of much <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/american-views-on-biden-and-economy-steady-but-critical-poll">criticism</a> for the inflationary challenges of the current US economy, it is vice president Kamala Harris’s position on the ticket that is subject to much more debate.</p>
<p>Harris, the daughter of Jamaican and Indian immigrants to the US, is the first woman to become the US vice president. Seen by <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210121-trailblazer-kamala-harris-america-s-first-woman-vice-president">many</a> as a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/11/kamala-harris-trailblazer-joe-biden-running-mate-vp">trailblazer</a> for women of colour and women in general, it may seem surprising that Democrats are discussing dropping her from the ticket.</p>
<p>But there are some signs of unhappiness. Recently, influential senator Elizabeth Warren gave <a href="https://www.wgbh.org/news/politics/2023/01/27/warren-stops-short-of-backing-harris-for-vp-in-2024">lukewarm support</a> to Harris as vice president for a second term.</p>
<p>Before November’s midterm elections, Washington Post columnist George F. Will not only called for Biden to be dropped for 2024, but <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/02/biden-harris-drop-out-2024-george-will/">said</a> that Harris, was “starkly unqualified as his successor”.</p>
<p>This attack on Harris has been echoed by other columnists, with <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/3728474-heres-a-game-plan-biden-replaces-harris-with-newsom-and-then-resigns/">one</a> suggesting that Biden replace Harris with Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, while another <a href="https://capitolweekly.net/memo-to-democrats-beware-of-kamala-harris-in-2024-or-beyond/">stated</a> that Harris’ poor communication skills illustrate that she was a poor choice as VP or as Biden’s successor.</p>
<p>Presidents with unfavourable ratings have often been advised to find a new running mate for a second term. It would be unusual, but not unprecedented, for such a partnership to be dissolved. The last elected vice president to be dropped from the ticket was <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/fdroosevelt/essays/wallace-1941-vicepresident">Henry A. Wallace</a> in 1944.</p>
<p>Wallace’s bid for a second term as vice president was <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/07/veepstakes-history-vice-president-fdr-roosevelt-harry-truman-henry-wallace-james-byrnes-1944-democratic-convention-214012/">defeated</a> at the 1944 Democratic convention after President Franklin Delano Roosevelt refused to endorse him. Democrats opted for Harry S. Truman instead.</p>
<p>In 1976 Gerald Ford exchanged his vice president Nelson Rockefeller for Bob Dole, but neither Ford nor Rockefeller had been on the ticket in the 1972 elections. Ford had become vice president after <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/vice-president-agnew-resigns">Spiro Agnew resigned</a> in 1973 amidst a tax evasion scandal. Ford then replaced Nixon as president after Nixon resigned in August 1974 during the <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/1970s/watergate">Watergate</a> crisis.</p>
<h2>Closing up the partnership</h2>
<p>However, Biden has consistently included Harris in talking about the administration’s achievements.</p>
<p>In his <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/02/07/remarks-of-president-joe-biden-state-of-the-union-address-as-prepared-for-delivery/">state of the union</a> address last month, Biden identified her efforts in helping small businesses. He also stated that he and Harris were doing everything they could “to protect access to reproductive health care and safeguard patient privacy”.</p>
<p>Harris is incredibly <a href="https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/kamala-harris-favorability?crossBreak=black">popular</a> with African American voters, and this was an important part of Biden’s coalition during the 2020 election campaign.</p>
<p>If Biden were to drop Harris, it could seriously impact his popularity with Black voters and undermine his support from women voters too. </p>
<p>Aprill Turner, spokeswoman for Higher Heights for America, an advocate group for African American women in politics, <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-02-05/biden-speculation-dump-harris-from-2024-ticket">told</a> one reporter that if Biden was to cast aside Harris it would “definitely ricochet through Black America”.</p>
<p>One of the reasons behind the calls to drop Harris might be her poor national poll rating. Even though Biden is <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/">polling</a> badly with the American public, Harris is <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/kamala_harris_favorableunfavorable-6690.html">rated</a> even lower. </p>
<p>Republican-controlled Southern states, such as Texas, have been battling with the Biden administration over immigration <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/01/05/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-new-border-enforcement-actions/">policy</a>, and Harris has been targeted for blame as she has been put in charge of border policy.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vjuO4zhQjaM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Kamala Harris on the state of the union speech.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On Christmas Eve 2022, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/dec/25/kamala-harris-migrant-buses-christmas-eve-texas">buses</a> of central and southern American migrants were transported from the border states and dropped off outside Harris’ home in Washington. And with Democrats also <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/77-democrats-criticize-biden-border-asylum-policy-rcna67617">criticising</a> federal immigration policy, Harris could become an easy target in a 2024 election.</p>
<p>Not all the criticism laid at Harris’ door is fair. She may have taken a while to <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2021-07-02/kamala-harris-isnt-getting-the-same-honeymoon-as-joe-biden-and-some-democrats-are-worried">visit</a> the border, but she had to spend more time than most vice presidents <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/17/kamala-harris-senate-ties-00032949">overseeing</a> things in the US Senate. With the Senate gridlocked at 50 votes each, her casting vote as president of the Senate was essential, forcing her to stay in Washington DC.</p>
<h2>Other vice presidential candidates?</h2>
<p>If Biden does replace Harris, who does he choose? Leading contender would be Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Immensely <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/16/politics/pete-buttigieg-kamala-harris-midterm-surrogates/index.html">popular</a> on the campaign trail, Buttigieg would be the first openly gay vice president. He has struggled in the past to win over minority voters.</p>
<p>There might be calls for a potential successor to Biden that has a wider appeal than Harris. Governor Newsom might have that although he has <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3751158-newsom-says-he-wont-run-for-president-in-2024-even-if-biden-doesnt-seek-reelection/">said</a> that he will not run for president in 2024. If he campaigned as Biden’s vice presidential nominee, it would raise his profile, something that he would need to do to achieve his national <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/02/gavin-newsom-presidential-run-democrats">ambitions</a>.</p>
<p>For a man who <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/joe-biden-demands-loyalty-from-warring-democrats-v550qwbf9">demands</a> loyalty, Biden might also be reluctant to get rid of a partner who has been exactly that. Despite <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129">suggestions</a> that Biden was going to be a one-term president, there has been no question of Harris as a power <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/may/08/usa.dickcheney">behind the throne</a>, as there was in the Bush-Cheney years.</p>
<p>Perhaps, more importantly, Harris has the respect and admiration of both the <a href="https://time.com/5878816/joe-biden-grief-kamala-harris/">president</a> and the <a href="https://time.com/5920530/jill-biden-kamala-harris/">first lady</a>, as well as the support of leading progressives. Harris will not be Biden’s successor, but if inflation <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/14/us-inflation-eases-seventh-consecutive-month">continues</a> to ease, then the Biden-Harris ticket may be too successful a partnership to break up.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199655/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dafydd Townley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
US president Joe Biden is under pressure to drop his vice president from the ticket in 2024, but a couple of things are holding him back.
Dafydd Townley, Teaching Fellow in International Security, University of Portsmouth
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/199151
2023-02-20T11:39:59Z
2023-02-20T11:39:59Z
If Biden doesn’t run in 2024, here are the main rivals for the Democratic nomination
<p>Joe Biden has made it clear he <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/21/politics/biden-2024-intention-reelection/index.html">intends to stand</a> for re-election in 2024. But despite his <a href="https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-union-bipartisan-bidens-landmark-speech-sounds-like-a-campaign-launch-for-2024-199128">state of the union address</a> reflecting a fighting spirit that many interpreted as another indication for a 2024 bid, Biden’s intention may not necessarily hold up. </p>
<p>Within the Democratic party, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-biden-turns-80-some-democrats-see-age-as-issue-for-potential-2024-bid-11668917528">concerns</a> have grown over the president’s age and his low <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/">approval ratings</a>. Recent news of <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-and-trump-are-both-accused-of-mishandling-classified-documents-but-there-are-key-differences-198623">classified documents</a> found in his Delaware home have certainly not helped in soothing these concerns. </p>
<p>If Biden does not run, the 2024 Democratic primaries would become a much more open contest. And there are several potential candidates.</p>
<h2>Kamala Harris</h2>
<p>As the current vice president, Kamala Harris would appear to be the obvious second choice if Biden decides not to run. But, much like the president, she has done very poorly in approval ratings. In early February, she had an <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/kamala-harris/">approval rating</a> of just 39%. </p>
<p>While a vice president’s approval ratings have historically been <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/psq.12381">tied to those of the president</a>, Harris would have to find a balance between setting herself apart from Biden and not diminishing the administration’s efforts.</p>
<h2>Stacey Abrams</h2>
<p>When Georgia flipped blue in 2020, many credited Stacey Abrams for the success. The former minority leader of the Georgia House of Representatives was a prominent campaigner for Democrats ahead of the 2020 election. </p>
<p>But despite this success in the south being attributed to her, Abrams comes with a difficult electoral record. She stood for governor in Georgia in 2018 and 2022 and lost both times, which could certainly cast some doubts on her electability within the party and among the voting public.</p>
<h2>Pete Buttigieg</h2>
<p>Pete Buttigieg went from local to national politics within the span of just a few months. The former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, ran for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020 and won the Iowa caucuses. But he dropped out of the race shortly thereafter. When Biden took office, he appointed Buttigieg as transport secretary – and since his move to Washington, Buttigieg has continued to make a name for himself.</p>
<p>Within the Democratic party, he appears to enjoy much popularity. He was “<a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/16/politics/pete-buttigieg-kamala-harris-midterm-surrogates/index.html">the most requested surrogate on the campaign trail</a>” ahead of the 2022 midterms. If elected, Buttigieg would be the youngest ever president and the first openly gay man to become president. </p>
<p>But the proposed changes to the Democratic primary schedule may pose a challenge for Buttigieg, who has previously had significant difficulties securing support from minority voter groups.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/diversity-and-moderation-over-tradition-why-democrats-moved-south-carolina-to-the-start-of-the-2024-presidential-campaign-196931">Diversity and moderation over tradition – why Democrats moved South Carolina to the start of the 2024 presidential campaign</a>
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<h2>Amy Klobuchar</h2>
<p>The first woman elected to represent Minnesota in the US Senate, Amy Klobuchar has been on the national political stage since 2007. During the confirmation hearings for supreme court associate justice Brett Kavanaugh, she made headlines and drew praise for her sharp line of questioning. Klobuchar previously ran for president in 2020 and put her support behind Biden after exiting the race. </p>
<p>She is seen as a moderate, someone who could unite both sides of the party and might be a close alternative to Biden. However, she has lower <a href="https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Amy_Klobuchar">name recognition</a> than her possible opponents within the party and had difficulties securing excitement for her campaign in 2020, an issue that could block her path again. </p>
<h2>Gavin Newsom</h2>
<p>California governor Gavin Newsom, who won a second term at the midterms, made headlines last year when he paid for <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/15/gavin-newsom-california-abortion-sanctuary-red-state-billboards-00057060">billboards</a> in conservative states like Texas and Indiana advertising that abortion is still legal in California. </p>
<p>Newsom is <a href="https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Gavin_Newsom">less disliked</a> than Biden and Harris but is still <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/2024/national/">polling</a> in the single digits according to latest data. But this may be explained by his slightly lower name recognition among voters. Data from the January <a href="https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/726/">Granite State Poll</a> in New Hampshire shows that some voters felt they do not know enough about him to form an opinion yet. </p>
<p>If Newsom enters the race for the Democratic nomination, his early campaign strategies would thus need to be focused on raising his public profile across the nation. </p>
<h2>Elizabeth Warren</h2>
<p>Elizabeth Warren, the senator for Massachusetts since 2013, previously ran for president in 2020 and quickly became known as the candidate with the most detailed plans for every issue on the agenda. While she did not win the nomination, she has since continued to make waves on Capitol Hill with passionate speeches on issues such as abortion rights.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">‘Angry’: Elizabeth Warren decries the supreme court decision over abortion rights, May 2022.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Behind Biden and Harris, who naturally have high name recognition due to their positions, Warren is <a href="https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Elizabeth_Warren">best known</a> among potential candidates. Additionally, she is <a href="https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Elizabeth_Warren">less disliked</a> than the president and vice president. </p>
<p>Among voters in two of the key proposed early primary states, New Hampshire and South Carolina, Warren enjoys particular popularity according to recent data from the <a href="https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/726/">Granite State Poll</a> and <a href="https://scpolicycouncil.org/research/poll-south-carolina-no-longer-sold-on-trump-biden-lukewarm-with-democrats">South Carolina Policy Council</a> polling. </p>
<h2>Gretchen Whitmer</h2>
<p>After winning a second terms as governor in the November 2022 midterms, defeating a Trump-backed Republican and increasing her win margin from 2018, Gretchen Whitmer has entered the 2024 stakes as a <a href="https://ukpsaapg.co.uk/exploring-the-2022-us-midterms-brief/">wild-card contender</a>. </p>
<p>Whitmer was first elected to the Michigan House of Representatives in 2000, and gained national attention for her <a href="https://eu.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2019/05/18/whitmer-rape-abortion/39492691/">speech on abortion rights</a> in 2013, where she revealed that she had been sexually assaulted as a young woman. She was the target of a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/10/26/1131607112/michigan-governor-gretchen-whitmer-kidnapping-convictions">kidnapping plot</a> thwarted by the FBI in October 2020.</p>
<p>Whitmer is well known for her ability to work across the aisle and has passed more than 900 <a href="https://democraticgovernors.org/updates/coalition-of-prominent-michigan-republicans-endorses-gov-gretchen-whitmer/">bipartisan bills</a> as governor. With Michigan poised to move up in the <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/04/politics/democrats-dnc-2024-primary-calendar-president/index.html">Democratic primary calendar</a>, Whitmer could have an early home advantage if she decides to run.</p>
<p>Whether vice president or wild card favorite, no Democrat except Biden has declared an intention to run. The ball is in the president’s court. But if he decides not to run amid increased calls for him to step aside, the Democratic party certainly has options and the primaries could shape up to become a highly competitive contest.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199151/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Caroline Leicht does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
The Democratic party has some other strong options.
Caroline Leicht, PhD Candidate, University of Southampton
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/199369
2023-02-17T16:19:07Z
2023-02-17T16:19:07Z
Philippines sides with US amid rising regional tensions between Beijing and Washington
<p>The US-China rivalry in east Asia has taken an interesting turn after the recent visit of US defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, to the Philippines. Austin’s trip ended in an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/02/us-seals-crucial-military-deal-with-the-philippines-close-to-china-flashpoints">expanded deal</a>, the enhanced defense cooperation agreement (EDCA). </p>
<p>This gives the US access to four additional military bases in a highly strategic region, a significant move for the Philippines, which – not so long ago – had signalled its intention to prioritise its friendship with China over the US.</p>
<p>Since Ferdinand “BongBong” Marcos took office as president in June 2022, the US has revitalised its engagement with the Philippines. In July, Washington appointed career diplomat MaryKay Loss Carlson <a href="https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/837584/new-envoy-to-philippines-arriving-end-of-july-senior-us-diplomat/story/">as its ambassador</a>, filling a post that had been vacant since 2020. </p>
<p>Washington and Manila had enjoyed a strong relationship since the end of the second world war, characterised by a continual US military presence. This was crucial during the Vietnam war and afterwards enabled a significant and continuing US military presence in the region. </p>
<p>But the relationship soured after the election of Rodrigo Duterte as president in 2016, who <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-philippines-usa-idUSKCN12L0E4">made it clear</a> he wanted to prioritise a relationship with Beijing over Washington. </p>
<p>A low point was reached in 2020 when Duterte announced his decision to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-usa-defence-idUSKBN2050E9">terminate the visiting forces agreement</a> controlling bilateral military arrangements including legal jurisdiction over US troops in Philippines and vice versa. The Philippines president subsequently <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2021/08/duterte-claims-that-covid-19-vaccines-saved-crucial-us-defense-pact/">reversed his decision in 2021</a>, admitting he had done so in return for access to COVID-19 vaccines during the pandemic. </p>
<p>But Duterte’s antagonism towards the US and his growing closeness to Beijing had threatened to tilt the scale of geopolitics in the region at a time of mounting tensions across east Asia over Chinese expansion. </p>
<p>Meanwhile in the US, anger at Duterte’s shocking human rights abuses, including the extra-judicial killings of thousands during his “war in drugs” in 2016 and 2017 prompted the US Congress to debate a bill in September 2020 suspending <a href="https://globalnation.inquirer.net/191170/us-bill-halts-military-aid-to-ph-over-rights-issue">all security aid</a> to the Philippines.</p>
<p>Duterte, meanwhile, had been telling Beijing it was “time to say goodbye to Washington” and pursue closer relations with China. But this flirtation with China ultimately came to nothing. The South China dispute was left to rumble on in the background and Duterte did his best to ignore the issue.</p>
<h2>Reviving an old friendship</h2>
<p>During the 2022 presidential election campaign Marcos remained vague about the direction of his foreign policy. He hedged between his problematic family history with the US – which had <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1148755">played an important role</a> in ending his father’s dictatorship – and the ongoing <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53397673">South China Sea dispute</a> that has pitted Beijing against most of the rest of the region over China’s territorial claims.</p>
<p>But since assuming office, Marcos has been firm in keeping the alliance with the US strong, and America’s attitude towards the Philippines has thawed. For Washington’s part, the Philippines’ strategic importance to the US has only increased as China continues enact its claims to islands in the South China Sea with a growing military presence. </p>
<p>Washington is also disturbed by Beijing’s repeated statements about its desire to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-59900139">“reunify” with Taiwan</a> and the increasingly authoritarian nature of its <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/05/29/863770112/4-takeaways-from-beijings-hong-kong-power-grab">administration of Hong Kong</a>.</p>
<p>Austin’s trip marks the third high-profile visit by a US official during the first year of the Marcos presidency. In November 2022, US vice president Kamala Harris visited Palawan, a strategically important archipelago abutting the South China Sea, meeting with coast guard officials there. </p>
<p>It was <a href="https://ph.usembassy.gov/vpharrisinph/">a historic visit of a high-ranking US official</a> to the home of the Philippine’s western command whose main area of responsibility is the West Philippine Sea, the sovereignty of which is hotly contested by China. Harris reaffirmed US support for the defence alliance and keeping the Indo-Pacific free and open. </p>
<p>US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/blinken-says-philippines-ties-extraordinary-us-committed-defence-pact-2022-08-06/">also visited the Philippines</a> in August 2022 at the same time as the former house speaker, Nancy Pelosi, made her controversial visit to Taiwan. Blinken reassured Marcos of Washington’s “iron-clad commitment” to the countries’ mutual defense treaty. Now Austin’s visit has gained the Philippines an expanded defence agreement and a potential US$100 million (£84 million) in military aid. </p>
<h2>Local and global politics collide</h2>
<p>The enhanced defense cooperation agreement was negotiated and signed in 2014 by the countries’ respective presidents at the time, Barack Obama and Benigno Aquino. The new detente between the Biden and Marcos administrations has returned the relationship between the two countries to a firmer footing and suggests that “<a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/10/06/1043329242/long-promised-and-often-delayed-the-pivot-to-asia-takes-shape-under-biden">America’s pivot to Asia</a>” has survived the pressures of the Trump administration’s isolationism, Duterte’s belligerence and China’s increasing assertiveness in the region.</p>
<p>The agreement over the additional bases under the EDCA was <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3175397/readout-of-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iiis-meeting-with-the-republic-o/">initially negotiated</a> in September 2022 by Austin and the newly appointed national defence senior undersecretary Jose Faustino at a meeting in Hawaii, so Beijing was well aware that the announcement was in the offing.</p>
<p>The maintenance of US influence in the east Asia region remains a plank of Washington’s security strategy, something it ensures by making nations like the Philippines chose sides periodically. <a href="https://sr.sgpp.ac.id/post/thailand-in-the-midst-of-a-us-china-rivalry">Thailand</a>, a staunch US ally during the Vietnam War which felt abandoned after the 1975 withdrawal, has been pulled in both directions too.</p>
<p>China <a href="http://ph.china-embassy.gov.cn/eng/sgdt/202302/t20230202_11018831.htm">has criticised</a> the latest strengthening of the EDCA as an agreement that would “escalate regional tension and undermine regional peace and stability”.</p>
<p>Meanwhile Marcos – who said in January that the South China Sea issue was <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3207337/world-economic-forum-philippines-marcos-jnr-says-south-china-sea-keeps-him-night">“keeping him awake at night”</a> – is taking great pains to remain at least on terms with Beijing. Earlier this year, Marcos <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade/Marcos-snags-22.8bn-in-investment-pledges-on-China-trip">secured US$22.8 billion in new investment deals</a> in January during a meeting with Chinese president Xi Jinping in Beijing. </p>
<p>Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a year ago, Washington has committed significant amounts of money and military support to Ukraine. But America’s greatest adversary still looms in the Indo-Pacific. And nations caught in between the two biggest global powers will continue to be bargaining chips for the two major powers while trying to get the best deal they can for themselves.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199369/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos is playing a delicate game of great power relations between Beijing and Washington.
Tom Smith, Principal Lecturer in International Relations & Academic Director of the Royal Air Force College Cranwell, University of Portsmouth
Ann Bajo, University of Portsmouth
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/194840
2022-11-17T12:17:10Z
2022-11-17T12:17:10Z
Four more years? Joe Biden and other Democratic hopefuls for the 2024 presidential nomination
<p>If US president Joe Biden was looking for an excuse not to run in 2024, he didn’t get it in the midterms. Democrats not only avoided the dreaded “<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-63569850">red wave</a>”, but also managed to retain control of the Senate, held Republicans to a razor-thin majority in the House, and swept key gubernatorial contests. </p>
<p>Despite <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/13/politics/democrats-biden-midterm-elections-senate-house/index.html">once-in-a-generation inflation</a> and Biden’s stubbornly <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/">low approval ratings</a>, Democrats defied expectations and enjoyed the best midterms of any president’s party in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/10/why-democrats-had-best-midterms-presidents-party-years">decades</a>. </p>
<p>Biden’s victory lap was made even sweeter by the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/09/midterm-election-results-trump-candidates-disappoint-on-election-day.html">defeat</a> of the most high-profile Trump-supporting candidates, sparking widespread <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-is-the-gops-biggest-loser-midterm-elections-senate-house-congress-republicans-11668034869">criticism</a> of the former president from within conservative circles. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, Trump has <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/politics/trump-2024-presidential-bid/index.html">announced</a> his 2024 presidential bid as planned, officially launching the next election cycle on November 15 and throwing down the gauntlet to Biden – who has styled himself as the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e34bec7c-f813-463d-ae00-a8458bf6c437">only candidate</a> who can beat Trump.</p>
<p>What does all this mean for Biden? Will he – and should he – seek reelection?</p>
<p>Murmurs that Biden should <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-2024-poll-democrats-b2175636.html">step aside</a> in 2024 have gone quiet for the time being. But don’t expect that to last. Two-thirds of voters indicated in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/10/joe-biden-2024-president-election">exit polls</a> that they prefer Biden not to run for reelection. Those voters included over 40% of Democrats, leaving many on the left grumbling that victories happened <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/13/us/politics/biden-2024-election.html">in spite of Biden</a> not because of him.</p>
<p>Yet even if Biden’s approval ratings get a bounce, he can’t change his age. Biden, who turns 80 this month, is already the oldest president in America’s history, and his second term would take him to 86. Biden insists that he’s in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/10/joe-biden-2024-president-election">fine shape</a>. But voters may have other thoughts, especially given several recent <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/opinion/biden-democrat-2024.html">flubs</a> that seem to go beyond his usual penchant for gaffes.</p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, Biden has so far <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/10/joe-biden-2024-president-election">indicated</a> that he will run in 2024, with a firm decision expected in early 2023. That sets up at least several months of Democrat introspection, guessing games and hypotheticals on who’s best positioned to lead the party. Although a direct challenge to Biden is unlikely, if he does opt to bow out, the contest for his successor would be a wide open field.</p>
<p>Here are Democrats most likely to vie for the nomination:</p>
<h2>Kamala Harris</h2>
<p>As vice president, Kamala Harris should be the clear heir apparent to Biden. While still a potential front-runner, Harris would need a serious rebrand to clinch the nomination. Harris’s <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/kamala-harris/">approval ratings</a> are even worse than Biden’s and many Democrats perceive her nomination as “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/opinion/biden-democrat-2024.html">party suicide</a>,” especially against a potential Republican juggernaut like Trump or <a href="https://theconversation.com/ron-desantis-the-florida-governor-who-may-steal-the-republican-nomination-from-under-his-mentor-donald-trumps-nose-194423">rising star</a> Ron DeSantis.</p>
<p>As the first woman and person of colour to rise <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/07/us/politics/kamala-harris.html">to the VP office</a>, Harris would also be a barrier-breaking president. Yet even in a Democratic party eager to diversify, Harris may lack the political acumen and appeal to win over a general electorate. The fact that Biden has filled her governing portfolio with low-priority, low-visibility agenda items won’t help her cause — and neither will her own <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/kamala-harris-gaffes-awkward-moments">reputation for gaffes</a>.</p>
<h2>Pete Buttigieg</h2>
<p>A Harvard graduate and former McKinsey consultant who <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/04/pete-buttigiegs-polygot-magic/588169/">speaks eight languages</a>, Pete Buttigieg, the former small-town mayor of South Bend, Indiana, came to national prominence during the 2020 presidential campaign. He’s since been a notably visible secretary of transportation, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/01/pete-buttigieg-infrastructure-law-campaign-00054427">promoting Biden’s 2022 infrastructure bill around the country</a>. An openly gay husband and father, Buttigieg would bring a different kind of diversity to the Democratic ticket, even as he <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/pete-buttigieg-a-self-described-outsider-couldnt-persuade-black-voters-he-understood-their-struggle/2020/03/02/663030ca-5b36-11ea-9b35-def5a027d470_story.html">struggled</a> to win over crucial black voters in 2020.</p>
<p>Buttigieg’s erudite, wonkish reputation plays well within a demographic eager for a president with policy chops. At just 40 years old, he also resonates with a younger, urban, educated voter, though it’s unclear how he’d fare with other swaths of the electorate. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, Buttigieg was reportedly one of the most sought-after “<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3731647-ranking-the-democrats-who-could-run-for-president-in-2024/">surrogates</a>” for Democrats campaigning in 2022. And, with several years of Washington service under his belt, Buttigieg may be better poised to parry criticism in this cycle that he lacks requisite governing experience.</p>
<h2>Gretchen Whitmer</h2>
<p>After holding onto the governorship in the swing state of Michigan with a double-digit win over a Trump-supporting candidate, Gretchen Whitmer’s <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3731647-ranking-the-democrats-who-could-run-for-president-in-2024/">stature</a> within the Democratic party has continued to rise. A vocal advocate for <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2022-11-07/abortion-rights-gretchen-whitmer-tudor-dixon-michigan-governor">abortion rights</a>, she has also been one of the most visible Democrats confronting <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/07/opinion/michigan-right-wing-extremism.html">right-wing extremism</a>. At the same time, Whitmer has managed to dodge the death knell label of “coastal elite,” and has leaned into her nickname, “<a href="https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/05/04/gretchen-whitmer-big-gretch-rap-song/3077499001/">Big Gretch</a>.”</p>
<p>Whitmer has little experience on the national stage, and she’s far from a household name. But she was reportedly shortlisted for Biden’s vice-presidential pick in 2020, and would likely appeal to electorates in critical “rust-belt” states in the midwest. But Whitmer did take considerable heat for her heavy-handed management of the COVID-19 pandemic, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-michigan-governor-idUSKBN22W2V0">triggering outrage</a> – and not just among Republicans.</p>
<h2>Gavin Newsom</h2>
<p>California governor Gavin Newsom had his own brush with pandemic politics, but <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/09/14/1035848090/california-recall-governor-newsom-results-elder">survived a recall election</a> in his home state by a wide margin in 2021. Newsom, who cut his teeth in business before pivoting to politics, has long been thought to harbour presidential ambitions. Formerly California’s lieutenant governor and San Francisco’s mayor, Newsom has a CV that, on paper, looks ready for prime-time.</p>
<p>An alleged strike against Newsom is that he’s too smooth and <a href="https://www.lamag.com/citythinkblog/gavin-newsom-hollywood/">too “Hollywood</a>.” As leader of California, a solidly “blue” or Democrat-voting state, he also doesn’t bring much to the national electoral math. Still, Newsom is positioned to raise his profile over the next year, with US$24 million (£20 million) in a <a href="http://www.apple.com/">campaign war chest</a> and the political prominence that comes with running one of the biggest states in the country.</p>
<h2>Amy Klobuchar</h2>
<p>Amy Klobuchar, the senior US senator from Minnesota, won plaudits in the 2020 Democratic primaries for her pragmatic approach to politics. Rated as the <a href="https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2019/02/28/grassley-klobuchar-most-effective-senators-of-115th-congress-according-to-study/">“most effective” Democratic senator</a> by a recent Vanderbilt University study, Klobuchar doesn’t dazzle in the traditional sense – and may even be seen as boring. Yet she’s earned a reputation for leadership, chairing both the Senate rules committee and the judiciary subcommittee on competition policy, antitrust, and consumer rights.</p>
<p>Klobuchar won’t be many Democrats’ first pick for president, even if one of her favourite lines in 2020 was that <a href="https://www.rollcall.com/2019/10/02/how-klobuchar-won-where-other-democrats-havent/">she’d never lost a campaign in her life</a> (that streak ended when she withdrew from the nomination race, giving her support to Biden). Still, in a Democratic field without a clear frontrunner, Klobuchar — who has largely avoided big political missteps (although has been marred by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/22/us/politics/amy-klobuchar-staff.html">accusations of mistreating her staff</a>) – could become a viable candidate simply by process of elimination.</p>
<h2>Bernie Sanders</h2>
<p>At 81 years old, Bernie Sanders doesn’t exactly solve the Biden age problem. Although swapping out one octogenarian candidate for another might not seem viable, it’s hardly an impossibility. Sanders, a big-government liberal who identifies as a <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/how-socialist-is-bernie-sanders">“democratic socialist”</a>, not only has a cult following among his famed “Bernie Bros.” He also has the most crossover appeal to <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/bernie-sanders-democrats-guts-court-trump-voters-meet-the-press">former Trump voters</a>.</p>
<p>Sanders, who ran for president in both 2016 and 2020, has spent a lifetime championing efforts to tackle inequality through expanded entitlements. While a “last hurrah” run by Sanders might be more about making a point than winning, his celebrity is hard to discount. If Sanders chooses not to run, <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3578887-the-memo-no-really-what-if-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-runs-for-president/">Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez</a> is the most likely successors to carry his mantle, while Senator <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/video/6315260259112">Elizabeth Warren</a> may also consider another run.</p>
<p>All moves now depend on Biden. He has said before that he would “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-13/biden-would-not-be-disappointed-with-trump-rematch-in-2024">not be disappointed</a>” to face Trump in a rematch, and his recent response to critics who don’t want him to run was: “<a href="https://www.foxnews.com/video/6315260259112">watch me</a>”. For now, that leaves other presidential hopefuls – and the Democrats’ base – watching, and waiting.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194840/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Biden remains the default candidate for the Democrat nomination for the 2024 election, but he is ageing and many believe the party would benefit from a younger candidate.
Julie M Norman, Associate Professor in Politics & International Relations & Co-Director of the Centre on US Politics, UCL
Thomas Gift, Associate Professor and Director of the Centre on US Politics, UCL
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/181993
2022-05-01T15:04:43Z
2022-05-01T15:04:43Z
Amid tensions on Earth, the United States claims that ‘conflict in space is not inevitable’
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460542/original/file-20220429-20-uzgpmv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C8000%2C3221&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Avoiding conflict is essential to maintaining space as a global commons, to be used by all.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/amid-tensions-on-earth--the-united-states-claims-that--conflict-in-space-is-not-inevitable-" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>In 1996, Joseph W. Ashy, former U.S. commander-in-chief of the North American Aerospace Defense Command, famously said: “<a href="https://archive.aviationweek.com/issue/19960805">We’re going to fight in space. We’re going to fight from space and we’re going to fight into space</a>.” </p>
<p>In less than three decades since then, we’ve seen <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/space-commands-lt-gen-john-shaw-on-the-future-of-space-security/">the establishment of the U.S. Space Force</a>, <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2297849-anti-satellite-weapons-will-further-tests-make-space-more-dangerous/">anti-satellite weapons testing by major spacefaring nations</a> and <a href="https://swfound.org/counterspace/">the rapid development of weapons that can interfere with, disrupt or destroy space assets</a>. </p>
<p>No wonder there <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/apr/15/its-going-to-happen-is-world-ready-for-war-in-space">are many concerns about the potential of war in space</a>. But the belief in the inevitability of space becoming the next major battlefield runs the risk of becoming, as space law expert Steven Freeland writes, “<a href="https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/star-wars-law-in-outer-space/">a self-fulfilling prophecy if care and restraint is not exercised</a>.”</p>
<p>It is therefore refreshing that, on April 18, U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris committed the United States to “<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/04/18/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-on-the-ongoing-work-to-establish-norms-in-space/">not conduct destructive direct-ascent anti-satellite missile testing</a>.”</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris delivers remarks at a visit to the Vandenberg Space Force Base in Lompoc, Calif., on Apr. 18.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Legal effect</h2>
<p>The context surrounding the statement by Harris, who also chairs <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/spacecouncil/">the National Space Council</a>, suggests it is more than a political commitment. The declaration was expressed in “<a href="https://www.icj-cij.org/public/files/case-related/58/058-19741220-JUD-01-00-EN.pdf">clear and specific terms</a>.” It was also preceded by the claims that the U.S. “will lead by example” and “be a leader in order to establish, to advance, and demonstrate norms for the responsible and peaceful use of outer space.”</p>
<p>Under international law, “<a href="https://www.icj-cij.org/public/files/case-related/58/058-19741220-JUD-01-00-EN.pdf">declarations publicly made and manifesting the will to be bound</a>” can create legal obligations. In this case, the U.S. issued a unilateral declaration, which has both tremendous political impact and legal effect.</p>
<p>The U.S. declaration must be read in light of the <a href="https://www.un.org/disarmament/topics/outerspace-sg-report-outer-space-2021/">ongoing multilateral exchanges on reducing space threats through norms, rules and principles of responsible behaviour</a>, and the upcoming <a href="https://meetings.unoda.org/meeting/oewg-space-2022/">Open-Ended Working Group on reducing Space Threats</a>. It will be of interest to see whether other countries will join the U.S. in making such declarations.</p>
<h2>Groundbreaking, but not unprecedented</h2>
<p>For decades, countries have expressed <a href="https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3892623/files/A_75_397-EN.pdf">concern of an arms race in outer space</a>, and underlined that the placement of weapons in outer space that would pose a “<a href="https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3952863/files/A_RES_76_230-EN.pdf">grave danger for international peace and security</a>.”</p>
<p>In the early 1980s, the then-General Secretary of the Soviet Union, Yuri Andropov, announced that Moscow would not “<a href="https://www.upi.com/Archives/1983/08/18/Andropov-says-nyet-to-star-wars-weapons/5655430027200/">be the first to put into outer space any type of anti-satellite weapon</a>.” Andropov issued a “moratorium on such launchings for the entire period during which other countries, including the United States, will refrain from stationing in outer space anti-satellite systems of any type.” </p>
<p>Since 2014, the vast majority of countries have voted in favour of a United Nations General Assembly resolution that <a href="https://undocs.org/en/A/RES/76/23">upholds their political commitment to not be the first to place weapons in space</a>.</p>
<p>Even so, several anti-satellite missile tests have been conducted over the years, <a href="https://theconversation.com/russias-attack-on-its-own-satellite-is-reckless-and-endangers-us-all-172105">most recently by Russia in late 2021</a>. The wanton creation of debris by these tests has been said to have greatly “<a href="https://twitter.com/CanadaFP/status/1460982576605237253">increased risk to the sustainability & stability of outer space and human space flight</a>.”</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-need-new-treaties-to-address-the-growing-problem-of-space-debris-115757">We need new treaties to address the growing problem of space debris</a>
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<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460546/original/file-20220429-23-a49634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="an image of the earth surrounded by thousands of dots representing all the human-made objects in orbit" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460546/original/file-20220429-23-a49634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460546/original/file-20220429-23-a49634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460546/original/file-20220429-23-a49634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460546/original/file-20220429-23-a49634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460546/original/file-20220429-23-a49634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460546/original/file-20220429-23-a49634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460546/original/file-20220429-23-a49634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A graphic showing human-made objects in orbit around the Earth — the red dots represent satellites.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.esa.int/">(European Space Agency)</a></span>
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<h2>Language matters</h2>
<p>Although the latest declaration from the U.S. is welcome, the commitment is to not conduct the testing of anti-satellite missiles from Earth. Nothing suggests that the U.S. has also committed to not use direct-ascent missiles, and there is nothing about the testing or use of weapons in space or weapons from space. </p>
<p>There is also alarming silence on refraining from other methods of disabling, disrupting or destroying space objects through, for instance, <a href="https://international-review.icrc.org/articles/the-potential-human-cost-weapons-in-outer-space-and-protection-afforded-by-ihl-icrc-position-paper-915">electromagnetic or cyber means</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/disarmament-fora/cd/2014/cd-reports/8908-russia-and-china-table-new-draft-treaty-to-prevent-weapons-in-space">proposed Treaty on the Prevention of Placement of Weapons in Outer Space</a> aims to prohibit the placement of any weapons in outer space and prohibit the threat or use of force against space objects, <a href="https://www.thespacereview.com/article/2575/1">but it has been opposed by the U.S. and others</a>. </p>
<h2>Peace in space</h2>
<p>From basic functions as global communications, positioning and navigation <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/07/using-space-to-help-global-development/">to the monitoring of changing weather patterns, and alleviating food and water shortage</a>, space applications are integral to modern life. The consequences of the disruption or destruction of even a part of the space infrastructure that is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrwJqdN6NF0">so crucial to civilians, industry and militaries are unimaginable</a>. </p>
<p>Placing or using weapons in outer space would increase the probability of conflict. The weaponization of outer space is not inevitable — rather, “<a href="https://www.icrc.org/en/download/file/163654/icrc_potential_human_cost_of_use_of_weapons_in_outer_space_and_ihl_protection.pdf">it is a choice</a>.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/index.html">International space law</a> places constraints on the testing and use of anti-satellite weapons and the disruption of radio frequency signals. The law also limits other ways of causing unwanted interference with the space operations of other countries.</p>
<p>It is encouraging to note that on the same day as the vice-president’s commitment, the White House in its press release announced that “<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/04/18/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-on-the-ongoing-work-to-establish-norms-in-space/">[c]onflict or confrontation in outer space is not inevitable</a>.”</p>
<h2>The benefit of all</h2>
<p>Space is a global commons, “<a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/03/09/space-is-great-commons.-it-s-time-to-treat-it-as-such-pub-84018">available for all to use</a>.” According to the <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/treaties/outerspacetreaty.html">1967 Outer Space Treaty</a>, space must be explored and used “for peaceful purposes” and “for the benefit and in the interests of all countries.”</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-invasion-threatens-international-collaboration-in-space-and-shows-how-power-structures-are-changing-podcast-181997">Ukraine invasion threatens international collaboration in space and shows how power structures are changing – podcast</a>
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<hr>
<p>The <a href="https://www.mcgill.ca/milamos">McGill Manual on International Law Applicable to Military Uses of Outer Space</a> is the <a href="https://www.mcgill.ca/milamos/news-and-updates#Progress">world’s first manual clarifying international law applicable to military uses of outer space during peacetime</a>. </p>
<p>By clarifying the limitations international law places on the threat or use of force in outer space, it is hoped that the McGill Manual will further the belief that conflict in space is not inevitable.</p>
<p>The U.S. unilateral declaration has provided the opportunity to work towards preventing the spread of conflict into outer space. It has also provided the momentum for other countries to reaffirm their commitment to explore and use space in a safe, responsible and sustainable manner.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181993/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kuan-Wei Chen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Our reliance on space infrastructure means that conflict in space would have global catastrophic consequences. But a recent declaration by the United States provides hope.
Kuan-Wei Chen, Executive Director, Centre for Research in Air and Space Law, McGill University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/171197
2021-11-04T20:35:04Z
2021-11-04T20:35:04Z
Lessons from the Virginia governor’s race: Pay attention to voters’ concerns instead of making it all about national politics
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430335/original/file-20211104-22514-hy0vww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=42%2C607%2C5589%2C3140&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Exit political stage, heading to the right.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/virginia-democratic-gubernatorial-candidate-former-virginia-news-photo/1236308344?adppopup=true">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>I teach political speech writing. My students know that earlier this year I served on a committee that wrote the University of Virginia’s <a href="https://news.virginia.edu/content/statement-committee-free-expression-and-free-inquiry">statement on free speech and free inquiry</a>, which stated that “All views, beliefs, and perspectives deserve to be articulated and heard free from interference.” </p>
<p>I’m also a conservative who recently co-taught a <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/voices/2020/12/28/liberal-conservative-teach-2020-election-emerge-friends-column/4027231001/">2020 elections class</a> with a liberal colleague – and we both managed to survive. In my class, the mainly liberal students know they can speak freely about what’s important to them. Being open about your political views is important – but so too is listening generously to those of others.</p>
<p>They’ve written speeches about climate change, defunding the police, voting reforms, the Texas abortion law, misinformation on social media, electric cars, education policy, oil pipelines, critical race theory, China’s oppression of the Uyghurs, a universal basic income, and even the need for more napping during the day. </p>
<p>Across the board, they want to hear all sides of an argument and decide for themselves. They don’t want to be told what to believe. They’re taking speech writing because they want to learn how to make a good case in the face of a hostile audience.</p>
<p>And what I heard in the runup to the Nov. 2 elections was that students are increasingly worried about the job market and the economy they’ll be walking into upon graduation; they are concerned about rising crime rates in Charlottesville, where they attend college; and they wonder if they’ll be able to freely express their opinions – left or right – here at the university.</p>
<p>So it was no surprise to me that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2021/exit-polls-virginia-governor/">exit polls of Virginia voters</a> this week showed that the economy and education were voters’ top concerns, just as they are for many of my 20-something students. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Former U.S. President Barack Obama fist-bumping Democratic gubernatorial candidate, former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Former U.S. President Barack Obama campaigns with Democratic gubernatorial candidate amd former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe on Oct. 23, 2021, in Richmond, Virginia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-u-s-president-barack-obama-campaigns-with-democratic-news-photo/1348284212?adppopup=true">Win McNamee/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Old playbook, new circumstances</h2>
<p>No matter what subject my students are writing speeches on – from critical race theory to electric cars – they want to take on all sides of an argument.</p>
<p>Similarly, many voters wanted to hear both candidates’ views on “kitchen table” issues – such as expanding job opportunities, ensuring public safety, and reforming education – in the closing weeks before the election. But that wasn’t always what voters got. Instead, they were often presented not with the issues, but with heavyweight political endorsements.</p>
<p>Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe brought in one Democratic star after another: President Joe Biden, first lady Jill Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, former President Barack Obama, voting rights activist Stacey Abrams and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi all made appearances for the former governor.</p>
<p>On one hand, McAuliffe’s playbook has worked for others in the past. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/10/25/big-name-democrats-are-campaigning-virginias-race-governor-does-that-help-candidates/">Research</a> by <a href="https://web.s.ebscohost.com/abstract?direct=true&profile=ehost&scope=site&authtype=crawler&jrnl=15354738&AN=110210185&h=Txy82Hlx3DObnSSmpvmLKuXTT6TJDGZL2PSMHQh22AB0B3I2HfHD%2f6Lk49nBxa6rkj6tMNQKRNeYdVeeGbOS5w%3d%3d&crl=c&resultNs=AdminWebAuth&resultLocal=ErrCrlNotAuth&crlhashurl=login.aspx%3fdirect%3dtrue%26profile%3dehost%26scope%3dsite%26authtype%3dcrawler%26jrnl%3d15354738%26AN%3d110210185">Rob Mellen Jr. and Kathleen Searles</a> into presidential campaign appearances during midterm elections between 1986 and 2006 showed that visits by the campaigner-in-chief can boost turnout and campaign donations for candidates – but only if the president is popular.</p>
<p>The problem in Virginia was that according to an <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/579440-poll-more-democrats-in-new-poll-want-someone-other-than-biden-as-partys">NPR-PBS Newshour-Marist poll</a> that came out the day before the election, a plurality of Democrats no longer want Joe Biden at the top of the ticket in 2024. Add to that Biden’s collapsing approval ratings, which sank lower every week in October, according to <a href="https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-BIDEN/POLL/nmopagnqapa/index.html">Reuters</a>.</p>
<p>It seems McAuliffe didn’t realize the albatross effect Biden was having on his own candidacy. Or the <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/state_of_the_union/">disconnect</a> right now between voters and those stars campaigning with him.</p>
<p>In contrast to McAuliffe, Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin talked early and often about his “<a href="https://www.youngkinforgovernor.com/game-plan">day one game plan</a>,” which focused on specific actions he’d take on the economy, public safety and education – the quality-of-life issues voters wanted to hear about. He hit the airwaves with TV ads comparing his policies with McAuliffe’s record and made his best case.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Glenn Youngkin at a campaign rally with a sign next to him that says " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Winning candidate Glenn Youngkin made the concerns of parents a central part of his campaign.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-gubernatorial-candidate-glenn-youngkin-speaks-news-photo/1347542247?adppopup=true">Win McNamee/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Succession stymied</h2>
<p>McAuliffe also faced an issue unique to Virginia that dampened his chances of success. Virginia is the only state in the nation that legally bars governors from a second successive term. Virginia law changed in <a href="https://vpm.org/listen/articles/6165/two-term-virginia-governors-rare-but-not-unprecedented">1851</a>, after several governors – including Patrick Henry – had served two successive terms in office. So from 1851 onward, the state has had only one-term governors – with one exception, in 1974, when former Democratic governor Mills Godwin waited four years and came back as a Republican. </p>
<p>McAuliffe, who held the governor’s job from 2014 to 2018, was trying to be the second exception. There’s a reason <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/List_of_United_States_Senators_from_Virginia">former Virginia governors Chuck Robb, Mark Warner, George Allen and Tim Kaine</a> all went on to become U.S. senators from the commonwealth instead of returning later as second-term governors. Virginians like a fresh face in the governor’s office, and this election was no exception.</p>
<p>The last time Virginia had a Republican governor was 2009, and a decade of one-party control of the governor’s mansion has led to a rising sense of frustration among voters – including <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2021/exit-polls-virginia-governor/">suburban independents</a> who swung away from Democrats this week – concerned with the stagnation of Virginia’s economy, the perceived lack of support for police and changes to parts of the educational curriculum in Virginia’s K-12 schools. </p>
<p>Instead of making a strong case for addressing these issues, the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/30/politics/terry-mcauliffe-donald-trump-virginia-governor-race/index.html">McAuliffe campaign preferred to bring Trump into everything</a>. In fact, at one McAuliffe rally in late October, Joe Biden mentioned Donald Trump <a href="https://nypost.com/2021/10/26/biden-says-trump-24-times-in-virginia-stump-for-mcauliffe/">24 times</a> in a single speech. </p>
<p>That strategy didn’t, by and large, connect with the concerns of working-class voters – from truck drivers dealing with hikes in the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/virginia-general-assembly-approves-higher-gas-tax-speed-cameras-and-cellphone-ban/2020/03/08/cb688356-5fbf-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html">gas tax</a> to urban residents worried about the <a href="https://www.nbc12.com/2021/06/07/homicides-virginia-hit-highest-levels-two-decades/">20-year high</a> in the murder rate to parents upset about what’s been going on in Loudoun County schools, where <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2021/10/29/loudoun-county-school-board-assault-virginia-governor-race/6179600001/">USA Today</a> reports that school board meetings “have spiraled into violence, accusations of student sexual assault are dominating headlines, and some parents have sued the school board over the district’s equity initiatives.” </p>
<p>The turning point came when McAuliffe stunned a debate audience with his <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/now/mcauliffe-says-parents-shouldn-t-173500644.html">statement</a>, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what to teach,” not realizing that there are likely far more voters who consider themselves parents first – and members of a political party second. When he failed to disavow a Department of Justice <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-addresses-violent-threats-against-school-officials-and-teachers">memo</a> labeling parents at school board meetings as “criminals,” there was no going back. His silence spoke volumes to everyone watching.</p>
<p>These days, it takes guts to speak up for what you believe in.</p>
<p>My sense is that there’s a growing number of Americans willing to stand up and courageously challenge the age in which we live. From what I’m seeing and hearing in just one college classroom, I have no doubt more brave young people – on both sides of the aisle – will make their case for positive change in the years to come.</p>
<p>Isn’t that what elections are all about?</p>
<p>[<em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-important">Get The Conversation’s most important politics headlines, in our Politics Weekly newsletter</a>.</em>]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171197/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>I am a former speechwriter for President George HW Bush, and a former Deputy Director of Communications at the Republican National Committee. My husband and I know the Youngkin family, as our daughters went to the same high school.</span></em></p>
A former speechwriter for President George H.W. Bush watched the Virginia governor’s race through the eyes of her students at the University of Virginia, whose concerns were shared by most voters.
Mary Kate Cary, Adjunct Professor, Department of Politics and Senior Fellow, UVA's Miller Center, University of Virginia
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/165414
2021-08-10T12:26:04Z
2021-08-10T12:26:04Z
Claims of voter suppression in newly enacted state laws don’t all hold up under closer review
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415283/original/file-20210809-17-ekmidn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C8197%2C5456&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Activists at a voting rights rally near the U.S. Capitol on Aug. 3, 2021. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/activists-attend-a-rally-about-voting-rights-and-ending-the-news-photo/1234432343?adppopup=true">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As states across the U.S. enact new laws relating to elections, there have been efforts to capture, in aggregate, the effects of those laws. Reports, found in both journalism and advocacy group statements, that new election laws will “restrict” voting or have an “anti-voter” effect misrepresent what many of the laws will do.</p>
<p>On July 14, 2021, a story in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/06/02/state-voting-restrictions/">The Washington Post described what it called</a> “voting restrictions,” citing figures from a website called the “<a href="https://votingrightslab.org/">Voting Rights Lab</a>,” and noted that “17 states had enacted 32 laws with provisions that tighten rules for voting and election administration.” The Voting Rights Lab describes itself as working to “build winning state legislative campaigns that secure, protect, and defend the voting rights of all Americans.”</p>
<p>The Brennan Center for Justice, <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/about/mission-impact">a nonprofit with a goal</a> “to reform, revitalize, and when necessary, defend our country’s systems of democracy and justice,” offered a <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/voting-laws-roundup-july-2021">July 2021 “roundup”</a> to assess “the full impact of efforts to suppress the vote in 2021.” The roundup concluded that “at least 18 states enacted 30 laws that restrict access to the vote,” a figure <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/08/06/statement-by-vice-president-kamala-harris-on-the-anniversary-of-the-voting-rights-act-of-1965/">cited by Vice President Kamala Harris</a> in comments on the anniversary of the Voting Rights Act.</p>
<p>Classifying a law as a voter suppression, as a voting restriction or as a tightening of a rule for voting involves judgment. It anticipates the future effect of a law, and it concludes that the law will have a negative effect. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=PSynZNoAAAAJ&hl=en">a scholar of election law</a> who has examined the statutes that have been lumped together as “voting restrictions,” I have found that while some could fairly be given that label, many are ordinary rules of election administration that simply don’t merit those labels. Many bills will likely have no discernible effect, much less a negative effect, on the right to vote.</p>
<h2>Routine procedure</h2>
<p><a href="https://custom.statenet.com/public/resources.cgi?id=ID:bill:UT2021000H12&cuiq=cebcefa4-252a-5dcb-aeb1-7fc87d570de0&client_md=51c25c48e64cb1636a693f59602e6ee7&mode=current_text">Utah’s House Bill 12</a>, for instance, was enacted unanimously by both houses of the Utah Legislature. </p>
<p>Utah’s bill updates a law about how to remove dead people from the list of registered voters. It increases the communication surrounding death certificates to election officials, and it requires the state election administrator to submit Social Security Administration data about those who have died to county clerks so that clerks may remove them from the list of registered voters. </p>
<p>The Brennan Center lists this as a law that restricts the right to vote; the Voting Rights Lab describes its effect as “unclear.” But this is not a voter purge statute, which can remove living voters from the voter roster. It only removes dead people from the list. It is a routine update to election administration.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415287/original/file-20210809-25-uhugze.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sign that says " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415287/original/file-20210809-25-uhugze.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415287/original/file-20210809-25-uhugze.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415287/original/file-20210809-25-uhugze.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415287/original/file-20210809-25-uhugze.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415287/original/file-20210809-25-uhugze.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415287/original/file-20210809-25-uhugze.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415287/original/file-20210809-25-uhugze.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2020, increased numbers of voters cast absentee or early ballots.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/long-lines-of-voters-wait-to-cast-early-voting-ballots-at-news-photo/1229129007?adppopup=true">Mark Makela/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Voting trends reflected</h2>
<p>States also updated laws about the size of polling places. The trend <a href="https://electionlab.mit.edu/research/voting-mail-and-absentee-voting">toward increased absentee voting and early voting</a> means fewer voters visit the polls on Election Day. Some states have moved toward <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vote-centers.aspx">“vote center” models</a>, in which voters are no longer assigned to a single polling place and instead have more geographic flexibility in choosing where they vote. As these other forms of voting increase, the traditional precinct model no longer needs to be as small as it is. Slightly larger precincts allow states to shift money to these other forms of voting opportunities.</p>
<p>The Nevada Legislature unanimously agreed, after hearing only support from county election officials, to <a href="https://www.leg.state.nv.us/Session/81st2021/Bills/SB/SB84_EN.pdf">increase the potential maximum size of a precinct from 3,000 voters to 5,000</a>. County officials <a href="https://www.leg.state.nv.us/App/NELIS/REL/81st2021/ExhibitDocument/OpenExhibitDocument?exhibitId=49844&fileDownloadName=SB%2084_Remarks_Senator%20Nicole%20J.%20Cannizzaro_District%206.pdf">can keep</a> smaller precincts as appropriate. The bill closes no precincts. Counties in Nevada have moved toward vote centers, which allow voters to go to any polling place within the county. But this law, Senate Bill 84, was labeled “<a href="https://tracker.votingrightslab.org/pending/search/NV2021S84">anti-voter</a>” by the Voting Rights Lab and a “<a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/voting-laws-roundup-july-2021">restriction</a>” by the Brennan Center.</p>
<p>New York’s <a href="https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/bills/2021/A7478">Assembly Bill 7478</a> is similar, increasing the potential maximum size of a precinct from 1,150 voters to 2,000. The old rule had been built around the <a href="https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-signs-sweeping-package-voting-reforms-law">physical limitations of lever-operated voting machines</a>, as these voting machines could accommodate only 1,000 voters. The machines have been phased out in favor of optical scan ballots, and polling places can now accommodate more voters. The bill passed the Assembly by a vote of 148-0, and the Senate 55-8. The Voting Rights Lab called it “<a href="https://tracker.votingrightslab.org/pending/search/NY2021A7478">anti-voter</a>.”</p>
<h2>‘Much less dramatic’</h2>
<p>Other bills target how elections are funded. The coronavirus pandemic brought <a href="https://theconversation.com/mail-in-votings-potential-problems-only-begin-at-the-post-office-an-underfunded-underprepared-decentralized-system-could-be-trouble-143798">increased costs for mailing ballots and administering a safe election</a>. Grants, including <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/01/business/zuckerberg-300-million-voting/index.html">US$300 million from Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and his wife, Priscilla Chan</a>, were distributed to states and localities to help with the new administrative burdens. </p>
<p>But the decision of a private grantor to give money to some jurisdictions raised questions about whether such efforts were politically motivated and would affect voter behavior and election results. Before the election, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/25/us/politics/elections-private-grants-zuckerberg.html">reporter Ken Vogel at The New York Times</a> wrote about concerns that private subsidizing of elections “raises new legal and political questions.”</p>
<p><a href="https://apnews.com/article/elections-facebook-mark-zuckerberg-d034c4c1f5a9fa3fb02aa9898493c708">State legislatures have responded</a>. <a href="https://custom.statenet.com/public/resources.cgi?id=ID:bill:AR2021000H1866&cuiq=cebcefa4-252a-5dcb-aeb1-7fc87d570de0&client_md=5c4190274f966a7d3ea86fa57987bdf7&mode=current_text">Arkansas</a>, <a href="https://custom.statenet.com/public/resources.cgi?id=ID:bill:AZ2021000H2569&cuiq=cebcefa4-252a-5dcb-aeb1-7fc87d570de0&client_md=5a73171008c20372f8ffba99b9f7e8ce&mode=current_text">Arizona</a>, <a href="https://custom.statenet.com/public/resources.cgi?id=ID:bill:ID2021000S1168&cuiq=cebcefa4-252a-5dcb-aeb1-7fc87d570de0&client_md=39319cd1043f6839b2971a8f798c8ba1&mode=current_text">Idaho</a>, <a href="https://custom.statenet.com/public/resources.cgi?id=ID:bill:ND2021000H1256&cuiq=cebcefa4-252a-5dcb-aeb1-7fc87d570de0&client_md=3da6fbe5258c835d20b1d592a2727feb&mode=current_text">North Dakota</a>, <a href="https://www.legislature.ohio.gov/legislation/legislation-summary?id=GA134-HB-110">Ohio</a>, <a href="https://custom.statenet.com/public/resources.cgi?id=ID:bill:TN2021000S1534&cuiq=cebcefa4-252a-5dcb-aeb1-7fc87d570de0&client_md=067c4b2a7b62feb11c70352f377ec5db&mode=current_text">Tennessee</a> and <a href="https://custom.statenet.com/public/resources.cgi?id=ID:bill:TX2021000H2283&cuiq=cebcefa4-252a-5dcb-aeb1-7fc87d570de0&client_md=f8f6ef3450cb77a75b211375fffb89d5&mode=current_text">Texas</a> all enacted new laws regulating or prohibiting private funds for election administration, such as buying equipment or paying personnel. Ohio included the rule as a small part of an appropriations bill that passed with wide bipartisan support. The Voting Rights Lab labels all seven laws “anti-voter.”</p>
<p>These efforts to label a law as pro-voter or anti-voter, then to lump those votes into a round number of “voter suppression” efforts, miss important details and context.</p>
<p>Too often, the label is inaccurate. Certainly, with some laws, the effect on voters is going to be more significant. <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/justice-department-to-sue-georgia-over-its-new-voting-law-11624632808">Litigation in Georgia</a> over Senate Bill 202, for instance, reveals <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/02/us/politics/georgia-voting-law-annotated.html">strong differences in opinion</a> about the bill’s effects.</p>
<p>But it is important to detail what a new law does and not simply offer a conclusion that is really an allegation about it. </p>
<p>When they are examined closely, the effect of many of these new election laws is much less dramatic. A label like “restriction” or “anti-voter” should be used when it’s likely that a voter’s experience is materially altered to make voting more difficult. My examination of these bills suggests that none of them rise to that level.</p>
<p>[<em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-important">Get The Conversation’s most important politics headlines, in our Politics Weekly newsletter</a>.</em>]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165414/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Derek T. Muller does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Not all new laws labeled “voter suppression laws” are, in fact, voter suppression laws. An election law expert takes a closer look.
Derek T. Muller, Bouma Fellow in Law & Professor of Law, University of Iowa
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/159979
2021-04-29T05:01:29Z
2021-04-29T05:01:29Z
Biden gives Congress his vision to ‘win the 21st century’ – scholars react
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397735/original/file-20210429-21-1i0v7ql.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=99%2C52%2C3408%2C2283&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Biden laid out an ambitious agenda to Congress with a historic backdrop.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXBiden100DaysCongress/89c3887ce769430ab763e0872afaf0a1/photo?Query=biden&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=47875&currentItemNo=0">Melina Mara/The Washington Post via AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-28/biden-to-make-call-to-action-in-first-congressional-address?srnd=premium&sref=Hjm5biAW">President Joe Biden spoke to Congress</a> April 28, 2021, with a historic duo flanking him: two women, one of them African American. Vice President Kamala Harris called the proceedings to order; Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi made the formal introduction of Biden to Congress. We asked three scholars to provide reactions to Biden’s speech, which began with a recounting of his administration’s accomplishments during its first 100 days and ended with his plea for unity so that America can “deliver on its promise.”</em></p>
<p></p><hr><p></p>
<h2>A return to normalcy</h2>
<p><strong>Karrin Vasby Anderson, Professor of Communication Studies, Colorado State University</strong></p>
<p>The visual backdrop to Biden’s address to Congress highlighted what was unusual and extraordinary this year, from the masks and social distancing that signaled the continuation of the pandemic, to the two women flanking the president. </p>
<p>“Madam Speaker, Madam Vice President. No president has ever said those words from this podium … and it’s about time,” he said. </p>
<p>The rest of his address was designed to further return a sense of normalcy to presidential communication that was often absent from Donald Trump’s freewheeling – and sometimes rambling and abusive – <a href="https://qz.com/965004/rhetoric-scholars-pinpoint-why-trumps-inarticulate-speaking-style-is-so-persuasive/">rhetorical approach</a>. </p>
<p>Communication scholars <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/P/bo5759249.html">Karlyn Kohrs Campbell and Kathleen Hall Jamieson explain</a> that presidents’ annual addresses to Congress usually do three things: promote values; assess issues; and propose policy. </p>
<p>Biden promoted familiar values of American optimism, success and exceptionalism. He assessed a long list of issues facing Americans, from the pandemic to jobs, the environment to foreign policy. And he proposed a slate of policies arguably more ambitious than anything promoted from the presidential platform since Lyndon B. Johnson stumped for “<a href="https://www.history.com/topics/1960s/great-society">The Great Society</a>.”</p>
<p>Using antithesis – where two opposites are used for contrast – to draw a distinction between himself and his predecessor, Biden urged that America “is rising, choosing hope over fear, truth over lies, and light over darkness.” He also peppered his speech with alliteration, heralding “100 days of rescue and renewal,” after emerging from an “abyss of insurrection and autocracy, pandemic and pain.”</p>
<p>Biden explicitly invoked a famous presidential address: Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s “<a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/12/roosevelt-arsenal-of-democracy-speech-213483">Arsenal of Democracy</a>,” in which FDR tried to coax a reluctant nation to care about Adolf Hitler’s march across Europe. For Biden, the COVID-19 vaccines are part of America’s 21st-century arsenal enabling a peaceful return to international dominance.</p>
<p>In fact, many of the policies of care outlined in Biden’s speech were couched in the language of competition. He noted that Chinese President Xi Jinping was “deadly earnest” about China becoming “the most significant and consequential nation in the world,” and he urged that for the U.S. “to win that competition for the future,” a “once-in-a-generation investment in our families and our children” is needed.</p>
<p>The language of international competition is particularly well tuned to American ears. Even most of the Republicans in the audience rose to their feet when Biden concluded with the refrain that “it has never, ever, ever been a good bet to bet against America.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397676/original/file-20210428-17-16yp0ys.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman and young boy in a kitchen." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397676/original/file-20210428-17-16yp0ys.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397676/original/file-20210428-17-16yp0ys.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397676/original/file-20210428-17-16yp0ys.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397676/original/file-20210428-17-16yp0ys.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397676/original/file-20210428-17-16yp0ys.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397676/original/file-20210428-17-16yp0ys.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397676/original/file-20210428-17-16yp0ys.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Biden’s proposal aims to help families with a range of programs, from child care to food assistance and universal preschool for 3- and 4-year-olds.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Hunger%20In%20America/7ff5283b6cdf41aab51f7ec792287159?Query=American%20AND%20families&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=7549&currentItemNo=194">AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p></p><hr><p></p>
<h2>More money for Pell Grants, HBCUs and Tribal Colleges</h2>
<p><strong>Ivory A. Toldson, Professor of Counseling Psychology, Howard University</strong></p>
<p>Biden mentioned historically Black colleges and universities, also known as HBCUs, as well as tribal colleges and other minority serving institutions, signaling that they are a significant part of his agenda. These colleges and universities have been shown to <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/186362/grads-historically-black-colleges-edge.aspx?g_source=CATEGORY_WELLBEING&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles">improve outcomes for students</a> who have been traditionally underrepresented in higher education. </p>
<p>Biden also mentioned increasing Pell Grants. President Obama used a similar strategy when striving to provide funding to institutions of higher education that serve underrepresented students. Although <a href="https://www.jbhe.com/features/65_pellgrants.html">most students at HBCUs are eligible for the Pell grant</a>, Pell grants can be used at any institution of higher education. For this reason, some leaders of minority serving institutions consider it disingenuous to see increases in Pell grants as a unique benefit to minority serving institutions. </p>
<p>Biden’s spirit and tone suggested that he considered himself to be a champion of institutions of higher education that serve low-income and historically underrepresented students. He noted that these institutions have smaller endowments but nevertheless have talented students. He also noted his wife’s affiliation with a community college. The Biden and Harris ticket is the first Democratic ticket since 1984 <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/11/biden-harris-to-be-first-democratic-ticket-without-an-ivy-league-degree-since-1984.html">without an Ivy League grad</a>.</p>
<p>Before the speech, President <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2021/04/28/biden-proposes-free-community-college-18-trillion-plan">Biden released his budget proposal</a>. The proposal calls for US$109 billion for two years of free community college and $39 billion to cover the cost of tuition for students at HBCUs, tribal colleges and universities and other minority-serving institution. This is similar to President <a href="https://diverseeducation.com/article/81197/">Obama’s 2015 budget proposal</a>. Universal higher education is necessary to achieve educational equity in the United States, so this is a proposal that I hope will gain traction.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397662/original/file-20210428-23-1j7hgw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sea of faces in graduation caps and gowns" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397662/original/file-20210428-23-1j7hgw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397662/original/file-20210428-23-1j7hgw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397662/original/file-20210428-23-1j7hgw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397662/original/file-20210428-23-1j7hgw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397662/original/file-20210428-23-1j7hgw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397662/original/file-20210428-23-1j7hgw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397662/original/file-20210428-23-1j7hgw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Graduation at Southern Maine Community College, in South Portland, Maine, includes newly minted firefighters and others with associate degrees and professional certifications.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/southern-maine-community-college-held-its-69th-annual-news-photo/534287678">Gabe Souza/Portland Portland Press Herald via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p></p><hr><p></p>
<h2>Restoring the American dream</h2>
<p><strong>Veronika Dolar, Assistant Professor of Economics, SUNY Old Westbury</strong></p>
<p>The U.S. has long prided itself on providing opportunities that help Americans climb the economic ladder and earn higher incomes than their parents. Some call it the “American dream,” but to <a href="http://scholar.google.com/citations?user=GyTN5PYAAAAJ&hl=en">economists like me</a>, it’s known as upward social mobility. </p>
<p>Social mobility in the U.S. has been slipping for decades. While the vast majority of Americans born in the 1950s and 1960s <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/social-mobility-upwards-decline-usa-us-america-economics/">earned more than their parents did</a>, barely half of millennials can say the same – <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/11/politics/millennials-income-stalled-upward-mobility-us/index.html">the first generation in U.S. history</a> for whom that’s true. </p>
<p>Biden’s <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bidens-american-families-plan-is-coming-whats-in-it-11618943914">$1.8 trillion American Families Plan</a> aims to reverse that, primarily by <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/04/28/joe-bidens-speech-congress-read-full-transcript/4883244001/">making what he called</a> in his speech a “once-in-a-generation investment in our families and our children.”</p>
<p>One big part of that is $200 billion for universal preschool for all 3- and 4-year-olds. Research shows that <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w22993">childhood programs</a> targeting disadvantaged families have substantial beneficial impacts on children’s health, future wages and education levels. This not only makes them more socially mobile but <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-08-044894-7.01226-4">also boosts</a> the broader economy.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 100,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>Biden also <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bidens-american-families-plan-is-coming-whats-in-it-11618943914">wants to spend $225 billion</a> to provide workers 12 weeks of paid family and medical leave.</p>
<p>The U.S. remains one of <a href="https://www.worldpolicycenter.org/policies/is-paid-leave-available-to-mothers-and-fathers-of-infants/is-paid-leave-available-for-mothers-of-infants">only a few countries</a> without any national paid family leave policy. <a href="https://equitablegrowth.org/the-economic-imperative-of-enacting-paid-family-leave-across-the-united-states/">Just 17% of U.S. private-sector workers</a> have access to paid family leave through their employers, and it’s even less for low-income workers. </p>
<p>There are <a href="https://www.americanactionforum.org/research/how-children-benefit-from-paid-family-leave-policies/#ixzz6tNRut0Dd">myriad health and other benefits</a> for children whose parents receive paid family leave, primarily stemming from the increased regularity of baby checkups, higher immunization rates and more years of school. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/679627">A study found</a> that after Norway introduced four months of mandatory paid leave, high school graduation and college attendance rates climbed, and children’s future earnings increased. Gains were greatest for children with less educated mothers.</p>
<p>The plan also includes $225 billion for <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1377/hpb20190325.519221">more affordable child care</a>, which studies show can improve children’s health and <a href="https://aspe.hhs.gov/effects-child-care-subsidies-maternal-labor-force-participation-united-states">increases the labor force participation and employment rates</a> of low-income mothers. </p>
<p>The price tag is high, and it will take time to see a return. But <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337144224_A_Literature_Review_of_Human_Capital_and_Economic_Growth">numerous studies</a> have shown <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2677725?seq=1">these types of investments are the best way</a> to promote long-term economic growth and social mobility.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159979/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ivory A. Toldson was affiliated with the White House Initiative on HBCUs under President Obama.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karrin Vasby Anderson and Veronika Dolar do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Three scholars examine President Biden’s rhetoric, the symbolism and the several ambitious plans he proposed in his first address to Congress.
Karrin Vasby Anderson, Professor of Communication Studies, Colorado State University
Ivory A. Toldson, Professor of Counseling Psychology, Howard University
Veronika Dolar, Assistant Professor of Economics, SUNY Old Westbury
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/158957
2021-04-20T06:14:54Z
2021-04-20T06:14:54Z
What is suffragette white? The colour has a 110-year history as a protest tool
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395935/original/file-20210420-23-xwt5c1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1022%2C850&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A silent protest parade in New York City against the East St. Louis riots in 1917.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.loc.gov/resource/ds.00894/">Library of Congress</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>“Suffragette white” is proving to be a popular fashion choice for women who want to make a statement. Most recently, former Australia Post CEO Christine Holgate donned a white jacket in her <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-13/christine-holgate-cartier-watches-scandal-committee-hearing/100064972">appearance before a Senate inquiry</a> into her controversial departure from the organisation. </p>
<p>Her sartorial choice formed part of the “<a href="https://www.wearwhite2unite.com.au/">Wear White 2 Unite</a>” campaign, which encouraged people to sport the colour in support of Holgate and call for an end to workplace bullying.</p>
<p>In doing this, Holgate, like Brittany Higgins last month at the Canberra March4Justice, is building on a trend in which women are wearing white clothing — and often referencing suffrage history — to draw attention to gender inequity today.</p>
<h2>Deeds not words</h2>
<p>The term “suffragette” is sometimes mistakenly used to refer to all those who campaigned for women’s voting rights. But it was actually a label applied to a specific group of women — initially in a derogatory sense.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.bl.uk/votes-for-women/articles/the-campaign-for-womens-suffrage-an-introduction">women’s suffrage movement</a> in Britain took off during the 1860s. By the turn of the 20th century, women still did not have the vote. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395901/original/file-20210420-17-12vam57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Four white women in brilliant white dresses" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395901/original/file-20210420-17-12vam57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395901/original/file-20210420-17-12vam57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395901/original/file-20210420-17-12vam57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395901/original/file-20210420-17-12vam57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395901/original/file-20210420-17-12vam57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395901/original/file-20210420-17-12vam57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395901/original/file-20210420-17-12vam57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Emmeline Pankhurst, Christabel Pankhurst, Mabel Tuke and Emmeline Pethick-Lawrence, 17th June 1911, marching at the head of the Prisoners’ Pageant at the Coronation Procession.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Digital image copyright Museum of London</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This led <a href="https://artsandculture.google.com/entity/emmeline-pankhurst/m0gfzc?hl=en">Emmeline Pankhurst</a> to establish the Women’s Social and Political Union (WSPU) in 1903. Her group of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/in-pictures-42837451">primarily white women</a> believed <a href="https://www.bl.uk/votes-for-women/articles/suffragettes-violence-and-militancy">militancy</a> was the only way they could achieve change, living by the motto “deeds not words”.</p>
<p>The British press mockingly labelled these women “<a href="https://time.com/4079176/suffragette-word-history-film/">suffragettes</a>”, adding the diminutive suffix “-ette” in an attempt to de-legitimise them. But Pankhurst’s group was not deterred. It reclaimed the term, eliminating the element of ridicule and rebranding it as “<a href="https://digital.library.lse.ac.uk/objects/lse:son216feg/read/single#page/1/mode/1up">a name of highest honour</a>”. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395912/original/file-20210420-13-wpzhgh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395912/original/file-20210420-13-wpzhgh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395912/original/file-20210420-13-wpzhgh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395912/original/file-20210420-13-wpzhgh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395912/original/file-20210420-13-wpzhgh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395912/original/file-20210420-13-wpzhgh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395912/original/file-20210420-13-wpzhgh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395912/original/file-20210420-13-wpzhgh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One of the WSPU teams that drew the carriage of released prisoners away from Holloway in 1908.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Library of the London School of Economics and Political Science</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Her group’s dramatic actions – from disrupting meetings to damaging public property – cemented their place in the history of women’s suffrage.</p>
<h2>Purity, dignity and hope</h2>
<p>Early 20th century suffrage campaigns relied heavily on <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/The_Spectacle_of_Women.html?id=qjp5Yw_w8XsC&redir_esc=y">spectacle and pageantry</a>, using striking visual imagery and mass gatherings to garner the attention of the press and the wider public.</p>
<p>Many suffrage organisations <a href="https://artsandculture.google.com/theme/still-marching-still-inspiring-still-campaigning/XQJSqVLaBcYsKg?hl=en">adopted colours</a> to symbolise their agenda. In Britain, the National Union of Women’s Suffrage Societies used red and white in their banners, later adding green. The WSPU chose <a href="https://maas.museum/magazine/2015/10/purple-green-and-white-an-australian-history/">white, purple and green</a>: white for purity, purple for dignity and green for hope.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395902/original/file-20210420-17-12oiqpe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395902/original/file-20210420-17-12oiqpe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395902/original/file-20210420-17-12oiqpe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395902/original/file-20210420-17-12oiqpe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395902/original/file-20210420-17-12oiqpe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395902/original/file-20210420-17-12oiqpe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=756&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395902/original/file-20210420-17-12oiqpe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=756&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395902/original/file-20210420-17-12oiqpe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=756&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An original Women’s Social and Political Union postcard album, with the circular purple, white and green WSPU motif printed on the front.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Library of the London School of Economics and Political Science</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Suffragette white was first donned <em>en masse</em> in June 1908 on <a href="https://artsandculture.google.com/asset/women-s-sunday/igFP9xounDQpPw?hl=en">Women’s Sunday</a>, the first “monster meeting” hosted by the WSPU in London’s Hyde Park. The 30,000 participants were encouraged to wear white, accessorised with touches of purple and green.</p>
<p>Ahead of the march, <a href="https://www.npg.org.uk/collections/search/person/mp17695/emmeline-pethick-lawrence">Emmeline Pethick-Lawrence</a>’s newspaper Votes for Women <a href="https://digital.library.lse.ac.uk/objects/lse:has924jop/read/single#page/1/mode/1up">explained</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>the effect will be a magnificent moving colour scheme never before seen in London’s streets.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>White fabric was <a href="https://womenatthecenter.nyhistory.org/the-many-official-colors-of-the-suffrage-movement/">relatively affordable</a>, which meant women of different backgrounds could participate. The colour’s association with purity also helped those involved present themselves as respectable, dignified women.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395903/original/file-20210420-13-l8ijq5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A stream of women in white between crowds of men in black." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395903/original/file-20210420-13-l8ijq5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395903/original/file-20210420-13-l8ijq5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395903/original/file-20210420-13-l8ijq5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395903/original/file-20210420-13-l8ijq5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395903/original/file-20210420-13-l8ijq5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395903/original/file-20210420-13-l8ijq5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395903/original/file-20210420-13-l8ijq5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Suffragette Coronation Procession through central London, 17 June, 1911.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Digital image copyright Museum of London</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Suffragette white became a mainstay of the WSPU’s demonstrations. In 1911, women who had been imprisoned for militancy were among those who marched in white in the Women’s Coronation Procession. </p>
<p>The Australian suffragist <a href="https://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/goldstein-vida-jane-6418">Vida Goldstein</a>, wearing a white dress, famously headed the Australian contingent. </p>
<p>Goldstein later brought the WSPU’s colours to Australia in her campaigns for a parliamentary seat.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-sex-power-and-anger-a-history-of-feminist-protests-in-australia-157402">Friday essay: Sex, power and anger — a history of feminist protests in Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Two years later in 1913, members of the WSPU wore white in a funeral procession for their colleague Emily Wilding Davison, who died under the hooves of the King’s horse <a href="https://artsandculture.google.com/exhibit/emily-wilding-davison-lse-library/ZALyW2jqmC2tKQ?hl=en">at the Epsom Derby</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/how-white-became-the-color-of-suffrage-111576">American suffragists</a> soon picked up this tactic, influenced by the British suffragettes as well as by the <a href="https://case.edu/ech/articles/w/womens-christian-temperance-movement">temperance movement’s use of white ribbons</a>. </p>
<p>Cities like Washington D.C. witnessed similar scenes of women in white dresses marching through the streets, making striking material for photographers. Contemporary black women — who were excluded from the suffrage movement in many ways — used the colour in their <a href="https://www.loc.gov/item/95517074/">protests against racial violence</a>, too.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395940/original/file-20210420-23-8bqtov.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Poster: Bring U.S. together. Vote Chisholm, 1972. Unbought and unbossed." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395940/original/file-20210420-23-8bqtov.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395940/original/file-20210420-23-8bqtov.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=753&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395940/original/file-20210420-23-8bqtov.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=753&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395940/original/file-20210420-23-8bqtov.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=753&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395940/original/file-20210420-23-8bqtov.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=946&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395940/original/file-20210420-23-8bqtov.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=946&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395940/original/file-20210420-23-8bqtov.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=946&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fifty years after Black American women wore white in protest marches, white suits became a calling card of Congresswoman Shirley Chisholm.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Library of Congress</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Feminist solidarity</h2>
<p>The modern trend towards white has had particular traction in the US. </p>
<p>In 2019, Donald Trump faced a sea of suffragette white at his <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-06/why-did-democrat-women-wear-white-to-sotu/10785818">State of the Union address</a>. Last year, <a href="https://www.thelily.com/harris-wears-suffragette-white-pantsuit-to-deliver-first-remarks-as-vice-president-elect/">Kamala Harris</a> wore a white pantsuit to deliver her remarks as vice president-elect.</p>
<p>Closer to home, at the March4Justice rally in Canberra, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-15/brittany-higgins-national-womens-march-canberra-parliament-house/13248604">Brittany Higgins</a> made a surprise appearance in a white outfit, standing in contrast to the funereal black worn by attendees.</p>
<p>By wearing white, these women — either consciously or not — are building connections with their feminist forebears across the Anglosphere. At times this can flatten the complex history of women’s suffrage. It is important to remember it was primarily white, middle-class women who led these suffrage movements, often to the exclusion of women of colour and others. </p>
<p>In drawing on their feminist genealogy, women today need to acknowledge the limitations of feminisms past and present — and not simply celebrate and reproduce the attitudes of over a hundred years ago.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1081032307262345216"}"></div></p>
<p>At the same time, wearing suffragette white is a powerful and highly symbolic gesture that reminds us just how long women have been fighting. </p>
<p>By establishing a sense of feminist solidarity across time and space, this move can also generate inspiration and energy and attract media attention. Women of colour’s choice to wear white can be read as a way of asserting their place within a movement from which they have historically been (and continue to be) excluded — and honouring women of colour who have come before them.</p>
<p>Like the suffragettes of the early 20th century, women today are showing the power of visual spectacle to grab the public’s attention. Whether this will, in turn, lead to real change remains to be seen.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158957/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Staff receives funding from an Australian Government Research Training Program (RTP) Domestic Scholarship.</span></em></p>
From Emmeline Pankhurst’s Women’s Social and Political Union, to Christine Holgate and Brittany Higgins, suffragette white has a long history.
Michelle Staff, PhD Candidate, Australian National University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/154227
2021-03-02T17:28:58Z
2021-03-02T17:28:58Z
What the end of the Trump years means for American and global girlhood
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387035/original/file-20210301-18-1y4hj2b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3272%2C2384&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Fearless Girl statue stands across from the Charging Bull statue in New York's financial district. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Bebeto Matthews)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In Kamala Harris’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/11/07/kamala-harris-victory-speech-transcript/">rousing victory speech</a> in November 2020, the vice-president-elect of the United States directly addressed the country’s children — but first, she spoke specifically to girls:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“While I may be the first woman in this office, I will not be the last, because every little girl watching tonight sees that this is a country of possibilities.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Many little girls (and boys) probably did watch with rapt attention as the world contemplated the historic significance of Harris’s win as the first woman of Black and South Asian origin to be elected vice-president. Some parents attested to the significance of that moment, and the hope and inspiration that it ushered in.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1325290099194667009"}"></div></p>
<p>Did Harris’s achievement also mark a turning point for girlhood in the U.S. — and the world?</p>
<p>Donald Trump’s presidency was marked by a toxic climate of aggressive hyper-masculinity where women were often insulted, bullied, mocked and harassed. Trump’s comments and tweets <a href="https://theweek.com/articles/655770/61-things-donald-trump-said-about-women">were sometimes rampantly sexist</a>, excused as mere locker-room banter by his followers but found to have “<a href="https://www.jbe-platform.com/content/journals/10.1075/jlp.19034.sco">dangerously ingrained</a> an ideology of denigration and objectification of women” by one researcher. </p>
<p>The conservative and regressive policy decisions of the Trump administration disproportionately affected women of colour, along with anyone else who did not belong to the <a href="https://ocul-crl.primo.exlibrisgroup.com/permalink/01OCUL_CRL/1vru3a1/cdi_informaworld_taylorfrancis_310_1080_15564886_2019_1671284">white elite heteronormative order.</a> </p>
<p>A <a href="https://ocul-crl.primo.exlibrisgroup.com/permalink/01OCUL_CRL/1vru3a1/cdi_crossref_primary_10_1080_09589236_2020_1767546">recent quantitative study</a> explored the correlation between the increase in racially motivated hate crimes following Trump’s election and the deterioration of mental health in young college women. <a href="https://theconversation.com/joe-biden-and-kamala-harris-could-transform-american-childhood-150112">Scholars have also pointed out</a> that exclusionary Trump policies like immigration bans and the separation of children from their parents at the U.S.-Mexico border jeopardized the “children’s safety and well-being” and particularly targeted kids from racialized and marginalized backgrounds.</p>
<h2>Girlhood under siege</h2>
<p>At the crossroads between misogyny and anti-children policies, American girlhood, unsurprisingly, came under siege during the Trump years, threatening to smother the spirit of the Fearless Girl statue facing the Wall Street Bull in New York City’s financial district. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387037/original/file-20210301-20-c71mx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The Fearless Girl statue wearing a pink pussy hat." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387037/original/file-20210301-20-c71mx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387037/original/file-20210301-20-c71mx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387037/original/file-20210301-20-c71mx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387037/original/file-20210301-20-c71mx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387037/original/file-20210301-20-c71mx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=628&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387037/original/file-20210301-20-c71mx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=628&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387037/original/file-20210301-20-c71mx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=628&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this March 2017 photo, the statue of the Fearless Girl sports a pink hat, a symbol of opposition to Trump’s presidency.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Mark Lennihan)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When it comes to the cultural iconography of girlhood, few can match the confidence, defiance and courage exuded by the Kristen Visbal statue, installed on the eve of International Women’s Day in 2017. </p>
<p>It symbolizes an audacious resilience in girls — in the U.S. and around the world — that could not be suppressed even during Trump’s tenure. </p>
<p>Poet and activist Maya Angelou once wrote how she would “<a href="https://mashable.com/2015/04/07/maya-angelou-stamp-quotes/">love to see a young girl go out and grab the world by the lapels</a>.” Throughout Trump’s presidency, girls rose to Angelou’s challenge, mounting sustained challenges to his inequitable and reckless policies — from gender and race issues to immigration and climate change.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387028/original/file-20210301-17-1a04boi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Malala Yousafzai" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387028/original/file-20210301-17-1a04boi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387028/original/file-20210301-17-1a04boi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387028/original/file-20210301-17-1a04boi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387028/original/file-20210301-17-1a04boi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387028/original/file-20210301-17-1a04boi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387028/original/file-20210301-17-1a04boi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387028/original/file-20210301-17-1a04boi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Girls activist Malala Yousafzai has been a vocal Trump critic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">UK Department for International Development</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Malala Yousufzai, the young education activist and Nobel laureate from Pakistan, criticized Trump’s discriminatory attitude towards Muslims and called his calls for immigration bans <a href="https://time.com/4151167/malala-donald-trump-muslim-comments/">“tragic” and “full of hate”</a> in 2015, even before he was elected.</p>
<p>She also publicly <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/01/25/malala-has-a-message-for-trump-on-womens-rights/">criticized Trump’s sexism</a> and later <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/12/malala-yousafzai-slams-trump-for-cruel-child-separations">called him out for the cruel, unfair and inhumane separation</a> of more than 2,000 children from their parents at the U.S.-Mexico border.</p>
<h2>Girls against Trump</h2>
<p>Teenage climate activist Greta Thunberg also took on Trump. As she castigated world leaders for lacking the moral fibre to tackle climate change at the World Economic Forum in Davos, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/12/politics/trump-greta-thunberg-time-person-of-the-year/index.html">Trump notoriously accused her</a> of having anger management issues.</p>
<p>The more Trump mocked and derided her, the more Thunberg upped the ante, <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/greta-thunberg-wishes-old-man-trump-a-wonderful-future-1.5274624">valiantly returning fire tweet by tweet until Trump lost the election</a> and she used his own insults against him. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1324439705522524162"}"></div></p>
<p>When the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-quietly-abandons-proposing-ideas-to-curb-gun-violence-after-saying-he-would-following-mass-shootings/2019/10/31/8bca030c-fa6e-11e9-9534-e0dbcc9f5683_story.html">Trump administration reneged</a> on the promise of gun control following mass shootings, a trenchant critique came from the Naomi Wadler, 11 years old at the time. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387032/original/file-20210301-22-1ljutss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A girl wearing an orange scarf talks into a microphone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387032/original/file-20210301-22-1ljutss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387032/original/file-20210301-22-1ljutss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387032/original/file-20210301-22-1ljutss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387032/original/file-20210301-22-1ljutss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387032/original/file-20210301-22-1ljutss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387032/original/file-20210301-22-1ljutss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387032/original/file-20210301-22-1ljutss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Naomi Wadler, a Virginia elementary school student, speaks during the March for Our Lives rally in support of gun control in Washington, D.C, in March 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>She spoke for all the “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/the-story-behind-11-year-old-naomi-wadler-and-her-march-for-our-lives-speech/2018/03/25/3a6dccdc-3058-11e8-8abc-22a366b72f2d_story.html">African American girls whose stories don’t make the front page of every national newspaper</a>” and her orange scarf is now an artefact at the virtual exhibition called <a href="https://www.girlhoodlive.com/"><em>Girlhood: It’s Complicated</em></a> at the National Museum of American History in Washington, D.C.</p>
<p>It’s clear that when girls and young women are at the forefront of major movements with their tireless commitment to justice and equity, and as they form a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56068522">formidable coalition</a> transcending borders and cultures, the old structures of patriarchy and misogyny can be challenged and hopefully dismantled.</p>
<h2>Trump impact</h2>
<p>When Trump won the U.S. election in 2016, an educator offered a strategic toolkit to the parents of girls in the U.S. to <a href="https://time.com/4672017/teach-children-donald-trump/">survive his presidency</a>. In the wake of his re-election bid in 2020, the issue of girlhood had entered the arena of political debate — a video entitled <a href="https://lincolnproject.us/news/mirror/"><em>Girl in the Mirror</em></a>, released by the conservative, anti-Trump Lincoln Project, urged American voters to imagine the impact of another presidential term marked by misogyny and sexism on girls and young women. </p>
<p>Fortunately, the U.S. and the world were spared that outcome. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387062/original/file-20210301-17-1cybycs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Amanda Gorman, in a yellow coat, reads a poem at the inauguration." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387062/original/file-20210301-17-1cybycs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387062/original/file-20210301-17-1cybycs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387062/original/file-20210301-17-1cybycs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387062/original/file-20210301-17-1cybycs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387062/original/file-20210301-17-1cybycs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387062/original/file-20210301-17-1cybycs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387062/original/file-20210301-17-1cybycs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">American poet Amanda Gorman reads a poem during the 59th presidential inauguration at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 20, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It was also fitting that the inauguration of President Joe Biden and Vice-President Harris featured the powerful poetry of a talented young woman, <a href="https://theconversation.com/poet-amanda-gormans-take-on-love-as-legacy-points-to-youths-power-to-shape-future-generations-153867">Amanda Gorman, who boldly asserted</a> from the balcony of the U.S. Capitol:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“… Yet the dawn is ours</p>
<p>Before we knew it</p>
<p>Somehow we do it</p>
<p>Somehow we’ve weathered and witnessed
… </p>
<p>The new dawn blooms as we free it</p>
<p>For there is always light,</p>
<p>If only we’re brave enough to see it</p>
<p>If only we’re brave enough to be it.”</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154227/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mayurika Chakravorty received funding from SSHRC. SSHRC Connections Grant, 2019 (co-applicant) Project: Republic of Childhood: Imagining the Future of Children's Rights.</span></em></p>
It’s clear that when girls and young women are at the forefront of major social justice movements, the old structures of patriarchy and misogyny can be challenged and hopefully dismantled.
Mayurika Chakravorty, Instructor, Department of English and Institute of Interdisciplinary Studies (Childhood and Youth Studies), Carleton University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/154318
2021-02-22T13:27:47Z
2021-02-22T13:27:47Z
Biden’s Cabinet of many women shows other world leaders that US takes gender equality seriously
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385114/original/file-20210218-19-1gd0keu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C41%2C4652%2C2891&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Joe Biden has more top advisers who are women than any other U.S. president. They include Vice President Kamala Harris and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com.mx/detail/fotografía-de-noticias/president-joe-biden-sits-alongside-us-vice-fotografía-de-noticias/1231065026?adppopup=true">Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Joe Biden’s Cabinet is the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/01/15/biden-will-have-more-women-his-cabinet-than-any-president-ever-other-countries-still-do-better/">most diverse in U.S. history</a>. </p>
<p>It has <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/01/25/959602615/janet-yellen-confirmed-by-senate-making-history-as-first-female-treasury-secreta">five women</a>, including the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/01/25/959602615/janet-yellen-confirmed-by-senate-making-history-as-first-female-treasury-secreta">first female treasury secretary, Janet Yellen</a>, and Deb Haaland, who will <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/12/24/native-americans-haaland/">become the first Native American Cabinet member if confirmed</a> as interior secretary. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg is the <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/president-biden-takes-office/2021/02/02/963217201/pete-buttigieg-confirmed-as-transportation-secretary">first openly gay man</a> to win Senate confirmation and lead a Cabinet department. </p>
<p>Four of Biden’s 15 Cabinet nominees identify as Latino or Black. They also span generations, ranging in age from 39 to 74.</p>
<p>The composition of Biden’s Cabinet matters because <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-age-diversity-in-a-presidential-cabinet-could-affect-policies-and-programs-152940/%22%22">research shows</a> that diverse teams can provide chief executives with valuable information that ultimately produces more effective public policies. In building a Cabinet that, in his words, “<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/06/10/biden-root-out-systemic-racism-not-just-divisive-trump-talk-column/5327631002/">looks like America</a>,” Biden also sends signals to Americans of many backgrounds: People like you determine the country’s direction. People like you can make it to the top.</p>
<p>The Biden administration’s diverse leadership may send a message to the world, too.</p>
<p>Our work on <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gove.12044">gender inclusion and Cabinet picks</a> suggests that when world leaders – particularly those in powerful countries – appoint more gender-balanced Cabinets, other world leaders may become more likely to name women for key posts.</p>
<h2>Cabinet selection</h2>
<p>In any given country, domestic factors – from how the electoral system is set up to what the executive’s relationship is with the legislature – primarily drive Cabinet selection. Generally speaking, heads of government select their Cabinet members for their expertise and to shore up support among domestic constituencies, not to gain international celebration. </p>
<p>But even controlling for domestic factors, world leaders who broadcast the idea that gender equality matters can affect the decision-making of other leaders.</p>
<p>For example, in October 2018, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed made international headlines by presenting a gender-balanced Cabinet. Days later, Rwandan President Paul Kagame <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/rwanda-cabinet-women-gender-balance-government-africa-ethiopia-a8592461.html">upped the number of women</a> in his own Cabinet. </p>
<p>The period between Ethiopia’s and Rwanda’s announcements was particularly quick, but such processes – where heads of government follow the lead of their neighbors – are not uncommon. Having a neighboring country with an above-average percentage of women Cabinet ministers is associated with an 8% increase in female Cabinet ministers in nearby nations, our research shows.</p>
<p>Shared membership in international organizations with strong gender equality standards, like the European Union, also seems to increase the importance leaders attach to gender. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385117/original/file-20210218-16-uera6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Group photo of Spanish cabinet standing on white steps with Sanchez in middle, surrounded by a gender-diverse group" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385117/original/file-20210218-16-uera6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385117/original/file-20210218-16-uera6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385117/original/file-20210218-16-uera6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385117/original/file-20210218-16-uera6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385117/original/file-20210218-16-uera6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385117/original/file-20210218-16-uera6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385117/original/file-20210218-16-uera6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Half the Cabinet ministers appointed by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez are women.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/29/Segundo_Gobierno_de_Pedro_S%C3%A1nchez_%282020-01%29.jpg">Pool Moncloa/Fernando Calvo via Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our analysis finds that if a country belongs to two international organizations in which 50 other members have above-average percentages of women ministers, its own percentage of women ministers rises by 1 percentage point. The same is true of countries that belong to four international organizations in which 25 other members have more female ministers than most. </p>
<p>Getting more women into government leadership has merits beyond the obvious value of gender equality. </p>
<p>Countries with more women’s political representation tend to experience less <a href="https://academic.oup.com/isq/article-abstract/49/4/695/1813634?redirectedFrom=fulltext">civil conflict</a>, <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1017/S0022381610000824">international war</a> and <a href="https://stevenpinker.com/publications/better-angels-our-nature">gender-based violence</a>. </p>
<p>It’s not yet clear whether women’s representation causes these phenomena or is merely correlated with them; political scientists continue to study this question. </p>
<p>Countries that prioritize women’s equality in politics also tend to do more to protect <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world">civil liberties</a> and safeguard <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343305050688">human rights</a>. South Africa’s 1996 constitution not only steered the country away from apartheid and toward an embrace of human rights – it also institutionalized gender equality as a principle. </p>
<p>In South Africa and elsewhere, the pillars of inclusion reinforce each other. </p>
<h2>Representational messages beyond the Cabinet</h2>
<p>Biden’s Cabinet members aren’t the only group of government officials that will receive international scrutiny. <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1354066116681429?casa_token=qlTRhFI2I4EAAAAA%3AeL19GK9TZwJSAJBr4F-osso94rrcjaOiTpU6I2D3phSu5pZdC-F3pOX6cWHLujSbUf4_76Of6dpgLUQ">Our research on ambassadors</a> suggests that world leaders will also pay attention to the envoys that Biden sends abroad. </p>
<p>Countries that commit to gender equality appoint more women ambassadors. Take, for example, Sweden – a vocal proponent of ensuring women’s participation in foreign affairs – and China. Almost 40% of <a href="https://ecpr.eu/Filestore/PaperProposal/8db1a913-e843-402a-ac54-cf2d4e813772.pdf">Sweden’s 103 ambassadors</a> are women, while fewer than 7% of China’s 165 ambassadors are. </p>
<p>The converse also seems to be true: Countries that prioritize gender equality receive more female ambassadors. Among the 133 governments that send ambassadors to both China and Sweden, 44 dispatch a woman to Stockholm – but only 12 dispatch a woman to Beijing.</p>
<p>Governments that are more dependent on international aid seem particularly keen to factor donor countries’ decision-making into their own political appointments. The 37 countries that the World Bank classifies as particularly <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/country/XE">deep in debt</a> – a group that includes countries like Ethiopia and Bolivia – dispatch four times more women to Washington than they do to Beijing.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>In the short term, Biden’s attention to gender balance in his administration increases the likelihood that leaders of other countries will similarly diversify their executive staffs. </p>
<p>In the longer term, continued American commitment to gender balance could strengthen equality and peace worldwide.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154318/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Research shows that when one country – particularly a powerful one – puts more women in power, other nations tend to follow suit.
John Scherpereel, Professor of Political Science, James Madison University
Melinda Adams, Professor of Political Science, James Madison University
Suraj Jacob, Visiting Faculty, Azim Premji University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/154836
2021-02-17T19:53:21Z
2021-02-17T19:53:21Z
Black sororities have stood at the forefront of Black achievement for more than a century
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383593/original/file-20210210-19-168gw2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C0%2C3000%2C1971&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Alpha Kappa Alpha sorority members at a get-out-the-vote event in 2020</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/members-of-alpha-kappa-alpha-sorority-pose-for-a-photo-news-photo/1229406551?adppopup=true">Octavio Jones/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In her speech at the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/19/dnc-2020-kamala-harris-speech.html">2020 Democratic National Convention</a> Kamala Harris saluted seven women who “inspired us to pick up the torch and fight on.” </p>
<p>All but two of them, one of whom was <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-55786214">her mother</a>, belonged to <a href="https://facingtoday.facinghistory.org/suffrage-and-sisterhood-the-origins-and-impact-of-black-sororities">Black sororities</a>. Harris also mentioned her own Black sorority, saying: “Family is my beloved Alpha Kappa Alpha.”</p>
<p>Many Americans may have wondered why Harris would invoke sororities on such an occasion. But not me. Like her, I am a proud member of a Black sorority: <a href="https://www.deltasigmatheta.org">Delta Sigma Theta</a>, which I joined as a student at Longwood University in Farmville, Virginia. If I were in Harris’ shoes, accepting such an unprecedented leadership role, I, too, would have paid homage to my sorority as a way to thank those on whose shoulders I stand.</p>
<p>This shoutout also resonated with me because I have researched the <a href="https://www.kentuckypress.com/author/tamara-l-brown/">history of Black sororities and fraternities</a>, including their dedication to combat discrimination and the lifelong family-like bonds they create.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/JijFLcbIqMs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Kamala Harris speaks at the 2020 Democratic Convention.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The forerunners of Black sororities</h2>
<p>The nation’s four Black sororities have always differed from white sororities in several ways, in part because of their historical roots.</p>
<p>Their origins are tied to the Black women’s clubs and mutual aid societies that first emerged with the <a href="https://suffragistmemorial.org/suffragists-in-washington-d-c/">Colored Women’s Progressive Association</a>, established in 1880.</p>
<p>In 1892, after the author and activist <a href="https://awpc.cattcenter.iastate.edu/2020/09/21/southern-horrors-lynch-law-in-all-its-phases-oct-5-1892/">Ida B. Wells-Barnett distributed her historic anti-lynching speech</a> as a pamphlet, Black women’s clubs sprang up throughout the U.S. in major metropolitan areas and small cities. </p>
<p>These clubs focused on issues of interest to all American women at the time, including education, health and voting rights. But they also sought to <a href="https://www.womenshistory.org/resources/general/african-american-reformers">combat racism and discrimination</a>.</p>
<h2>A call toward service</h2>
<p>Young Black women who liked the groups’ insistence on equality and racial justice responded by creating Black sororities at their colleges. Students at Howard University in Washington, D.C. – Harris’ alma mater – created the first one, <a href="https://aka1908.com/about">Alpha Kappa Alpha</a>, in 1908. Female white students by then had begun to form <a href="https://www.oldest.org/culture/sororities-america/">similar groups on other campuses</a>, many of which <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ss.20289">barred Black members</a>.</p>
<p>Five of the <a href="http://www.blackgreek.com/divinenine/">“Divine Nine”</a> Greek organizations Kamala Harris mentioned in her speech are fraternities, created in response to Black men not being included in traditionally white fraternities.</p>
<p>I believe that African American women created their own sororities as communities of resistance that would allow them to survive and achieve in an oppressive society, refute stereotypes, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt2jctpn">celebrate their own cultures</a> and fight sexism and racism – including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0361684315616113">gendered racism</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/384846/original/file-20210217-19-1q02g3z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A group of young African American women hold a sign that reads #StandWithBennet" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/384846/original/file-20210217-19-1q02g3z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/384846/original/file-20210217-19-1q02g3z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384846/original/file-20210217-19-1q02g3z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384846/original/file-20210217-19-1q02g3z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384846/original/file-20210217-19-1q02g3z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384846/original/file-20210217-19-1q02g3z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384846/original/file-20210217-19-1q02g3z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Members of the Delta Sigma Theta sorority.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/members-of-delta-sigma-theta-sorority-inc-attend-the-2019-news-photo/1097603110?adppopup=true">Paras Griffin/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The 6 women Harris saluted</h2>
<p>The historically significant <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/here-are-some-of-the-women-kamala-harris-said-helped-pave-the-way-for-her/ar-BB18cpzq">Black women</a>, aside from her mother, whom Harris thanked in her speech were:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="https://www.womenshistory.org/education-resources/biographies/mary-church-terrell">Mary Church Terrell</a>, who founded the <a href="https://www.crusadeforthevote.org/nacw">National Association of Colored Women’s Clubs</a>, the largest federation of local Black women’s clubs. After becoming an honorary Delta Sigma Theta member in 1913, decades after graduating from Oberlin College, Terrell wrote the <a href="https://knowthereign.weebly.com/delta-oath.html">sorority’s oath</a> and <a href="https://www.deltasigmatheta.org/conduct.php">code of conduct</a>.</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.womenshistory.org/education-resources/biographies/mary-mcleod-bethune">Mary McLeod Bethune</a>, who established what is today <a href="https://cookman.edu/about_BCU/index.html">Bethune-Cookman University</a> in Daytona Beach, Florida, in 1904. She also became an honorary member of Delta Sigma Theta in 1923, a dozen years before founding the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/National-Council-of-Negro-Women">National Council of Negro Women</a>, an umbrella group that brought together representatives from different organizations seeking to improve the lives of Black women and their communities.</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.womenshistory.org/education-resources/biographies/fannie-lou-hamer">Fannie Lou Hamer</a>, who co-founded the <a href="https://kinginstitute.stanford.edu/encyclopedia/mississippi-freedom-democratic-party-mfdp">Mississippi Freedom Democratic Party</a> in 1964 when the state’s Democratic Party barred Black participation. Her famous words “<a href="https://awpc.cattcenter.iastate.edu/2019/08/09/im-sick-and-tired-of-being-sick-and-tired-dec-20-1964/">I am sick and tired of being sick and tired</a>” are still a rallying cry for activists today. She was inducted as an honorary member of Delta Sigma Theta.</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://snccdigital.org/people/diane-nash-bevel/">Diane Nash</a>, who became a leader and strategist of the student wing of the civil rights movement while attending <a href="https://www.biography.com/activist/diane-nash">Howard and then Fisk University</a>. I have found no evidence, however, that Nash belonged to a Black sorority.</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.uscourts.gov/news/2020/02/20/constance-baker-motley-judiciarys-unsung-rights-hero">Constance Baker Motley</a>, who was the first African American woman to argue a case before the Supreme Court – winning nine of the 10 cases she argued before the court as an NAACP attorney. She was also the first Black woman to become a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2005/oct/01/guardianobituaries.usa">federal judge</a>, the first to win a New York state senate seat and the first to represent Manhattan as the borough’s president. <a href="http://akapioneers.aka1908.com/index.php/component/mtree/vocations/law-1/circuit-court-judge-1/1731-motley-constance-baker">Alpha Kappa Alpha</a> made her an honorary member.</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.womenshistory.org/education-resources/biographies/shirley-chisholm">Shirley Chisolm</a>, who won a House of Representatives seat in 1968. After becoming the first African American woman in Congress, she helped form the <a href="https://cbc.house.gov/about/">Congressional Black Caucus</a>. Her 1972 presidential bid made her the first woman and African American to seek the <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/us-politics/shirley-chisolm">nomination from a major political party</a>. She joined <a href="https://weemagine.com/2016/08/28/12-facts-about-the-first-woman-to-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomination-hint-its-not-hillary/">Delta Sigma Theta</a> as a Brooklyn College student.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Continuing a tradition</h2>
<p>Even today, the core mission of Black sororities remains civic engagement and racial justice.</p>
<p>All members of sororities and fraternities may donate to social causes or volunteer as part of satisfying school <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-college-towns-could-benefit-more-from-throngs-of-student-volunteers-109862">community service</a> requirements. A <a href="https://www.uloop.com/news/view.php/154170/How-To-Choose-The-Best-Community-Service-FraternitySorority-For-You">few make it their main focus</a>.</p>
<p>But across the board, Black sororities emphasize consequential and sustained community service, while their members are students and also once they’ve graduated from college. This is also true of the <a href="https://www.watchtheyard.com/deltas/joan-mulholland-delta-sigma-theta-white-member/">few white women</a> who have joined Black sororities over the years.</p>
<p>[<em>Insight, in your inbox each day.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=insight">You can get it with The Conversation’s email newsletter</a>.]</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/384841/original/file-20210217-17-15oslav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A group of African American women pose for a photo." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/384841/original/file-20210217-17-15oslav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/384841/original/file-20210217-17-15oslav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384841/original/file-20210217-17-15oslav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384841/original/file-20210217-17-15oslav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384841/original/file-20210217-17-15oslav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=623&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384841/original/file-20210217-17-15oslav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=623&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384841/original/file-20210217-17-15oslav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=623&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Members of the Sigma Gamma Rho sorority.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/members-of-sigma-gamma-rho-sorority-inc-attend-2016-martin-news-photo/505579488?adppopup=true">Griffin/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Like with biological families where members remain in the family no matter what, for Black women, sorority affiliation usually becomes a <a href="https://www.dallasnews.com/arts-entertainment/2017/11/17/long-after-college-divine-nine-fraternities-and-sororities-are-a-lifeline-for-black-members/">permanent part of their identity</a> and an enduring source of pride and support. </p>
<p>Many members of <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt2jctpn">Black sororities remain active</a> and engaged for the rest of their lives. They join local chapters, changing their affiliation whenever they move. Through this practice, their bond of sisterhood remains intact.</p>
<p>When I moved to North Texas, for example, local sorority members reached out to me. They helped me acclimate and make connections so that I immediately felt welcome. I also remain engaged with the sorority chapter I joined at Longwood by mentoring students, donating to scholarship funds and through other means. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/384840/original/file-20210217-19-1gq1lk8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Several African American women dressed in blue walk together." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/384840/original/file-20210217-19-1gq1lk8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/384840/original/file-20210217-19-1gq1lk8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384840/original/file-20210217-19-1gq1lk8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384840/original/file-20210217-19-1gq1lk8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384840/original/file-20210217-19-1gq1lk8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384840/original/file-20210217-19-1gq1lk8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384840/original/file-20210217-19-1gq1lk8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Members of the Zeta Phi Beta sorority.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/members-of-zeta-phi-beta-sorority-inc-participate-in-the-news-photo/631844242?adppopup=true">Paras Griffin/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As Harris made clear in her speech, she believes she stands on the shoulders of phenomenal women who, years after they blazed trails, taught today’s Black women how to be persistent in creating change that benefits our communities, and how to teach others to follow in our footsteps.</p>
<p>They taught us to <a href="https://womensmuseum.wordpress.com/2018/02/21/lifting-as-we-climb-the-story-of-americas-first-black-womens-club/">lift as we climb</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154836/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tamara L. Brown is affiliated with Delta Sigma Theta Sorority, Incorporated. </span></em></p>
Members of the nation’s four Black sororities, including Vice President Kamala Harris, commit to lifelong acts of service for their communities.
Tamara L. Brown, Executive Dean and Professor of Psychology, University of North Texas
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/154213
2021-02-08T18:24:07Z
2021-02-08T18:24:07Z
Fact check US: Can progressive and centrist Democrats finally agree on health care reform?
<p>The Democrats are back in the driving seat. Some are demanding a complete overhaul of the health care system, specifically from progressive Senator Sanders. Sanders has just been named to the strategic position of Senate Budget Committee Chairman. Does this mean that the left and center of the Democratic Party will finally agree on a more comprehensive health insurance system?</p>
<p>Senator <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/12/bernie-sanders-big-budget-plans-458461">Bernie Sanders</a> is already promoting his campaign for a universal, public health insurance model with a vengeance: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“I am a very strong advocate of Medicare for All. I introduced legislation in the Senate. I think, at the end of the day, the American people understand that our current health care system is so dysfunctional, so cruel, so wasteful, so expensive that we need to do what every other major country on Earth does, and get health care to all people. What we will be doing is working within the context of what Biden wants.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Sanders’ statement comes as no surprise. As a senator from the progressive state of Vermont, he has been fighting for years to implement a public health care system in the United States similar to models in Europe. This has long been a core aim of <a href="http://www.pressesdesciencespo.fr/fr/book/?gcoi=27246100830610">progressives in Wisconsin</a>, from the days of Roosevelt’s New Deal to the debate around Bill Clinton’s proposed health care reform in 1993. That was when progressive Democrats started to advocate for single-payer health care – that all essential health care be covered by a single public system, rather than private insurers.</p>
<h2>Seeking a fairer health care system while the pandemic rages</h2>
<p>For many in the United States, the debate remains the same – it’s still a case of choosing between a “grand illusion” of universal care and a <a href="https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJPH.2019.305315">“feasible solution”</a>. However, the Covid-19 pandemic, which has caused nearly 450,000 deaths so far, has pushed supporters of public health care to speak out more forcefully, right when the Biden administration is taking over. </p>
<p>So what can we expect from the new president? As part of the moderate wing of the Democratic Party, Joe Biden was not supportive of Medicare for All during the primaries. He stated that he was in favor of improving the Affordable Care Act (ACA), Barack Obama’s health care reform, which gave coverage to <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/health/chart-book-accomplishments-of-affordable-care-act">20 million Americans</a> who previously had none. Under the act, popularly known as Obamacare, Americans are encouraged to get private health insurance, with public assistance for those who could not afford to do so. Two longstanding public programs with narrow criteria complete the system: Medicare (for those over 65 years old) and Medicaid (for minors and single women).</p>
<p>Biden was in favor of increasing public funding so that all citizens could afford insurance, essentially an Affordable Care Act 2.0. The high public cost of Medicare for All as well as the number of Americans who are relatively satisfied with the current employer-based system meant that the Delaware senator considered larger reform out of the question.</p>
<p>However, with Kamala Harris as his running mate and now vice-president, and an eye on getting progressive Democrats on board, Biden has shifted to the left. One such move was proposing a more substantial reform of Obamacare, introducing a “public option”. Harris had earlier come out in favor of an “open” version of Medicare for All, with the option to take out supplementary private health insurance. The two compromised on a solution with both private and public insurance. However, this kind of reform requires budget legislation that cannot be passed by a simple majority (which the Democrats have in the Senate). They would need a supermajority of 60 votes to get it through, and avoid Republican obstruction (a.k.a., the <a href="https://theconversation.com/fact-check-us-lobstruction-parlementaire-lun-des-obstacles-majeurs-a-venir-pour-joe-biden-153902">filibuster</a>).</p>
<p>What’s more, with the absolute priority currently given to the fight against the Covid-19 pandemic, it’s unclear whether Biden will take an extra step toward the far-reaching reform sought by progressive Democrats. Looking at the make-up of Biden’s new administration, one cannot precisely assess the importance that this issue could have on the upcoming political agenda. Out of the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2020/biden-appointee-tracker/">19 executive positions</a> in the Department of Health awaiting appointments, and approval by the Senate, only one has been confirmed – Dr. Francis Collins, the new director of the National Institute of Health. Nominations of Xavier Becerra as the secretary, as well as the deputy and assistant secretary candidates, are awaiting confirmation. </p>
<p>By comparison, the 2008–09 Obama administration was set up as a sort of task force, with a number of veterans from the Clinton administration. These advisers, many of whom held positions in the White House and Department of Health, backed the consensus-based health-insurance reform bill. There is nothing of the sort in the current administration.</p>
<h2>A bare majority for Democrats in Congress</h2>
<p>President Biden’s main priority is to fight the Covid-19 pandemic, hence his promise for <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/12/29/biden-promises-100-million-covid-19-vaccinations-in-first-100-days-warning-that-trumps-approach-would-take-years/?sh=6efbc5892a97">“100 days, 100 million vaccinations”</a>. This is also his reasoning behind the recruiting of his chief of staff, Ron Klain, who as part of the Obama administration was responsible for managing the US response to the Ebola epidemic. </p>
<p>Responding to Covid-19 also allows for the triumphant return of experts to the White House, who were both badly treated and side-lined by the Trump administration. Biden’s choice of the ten members of his task force shows a change in tack. And the nomination of Jeff Zients, an economist and a former Obama advisor, to coordinate the federal vaccination program reaffirms this choice. Zients was the one who fixed the rollout of the ACA’s federal health insurance marketplace website.</p>
<p>Assessing the Biden administration’s opportunities for substantial US health care reform requires a careful reading of the recent election results. Despite Trump’s baseless claims, Biden comfortably won, but there wasn’t a “blue wave” in Congress. The Democrats actually lost seats in the House of Representatives and have only the barest majority in the Senate, with Harris as the tiebreaker vote. Any major Medicare for All–type reform bill will inevitably be subject to criticism from the Republicans who warn against so-called “socialized medicine” while dismissing the benefits of universal care. The Biden administration has also committed $1.9 billion to fight the impacts of Covid-19, with more planned.</p>
<p>All this means that it is likely that Biden will choose to improve the ACA, introducing measures by passing budget legislation or budget balancing, which would only require a relative majority in the Senate (50 votes).</p>
<p>As vice-president, Harris will likely will leave her health care reform agenda for a later date. Committing to such a reform without having 60 Democratic votes in the Senate would be a major political risk for the 2022 midterm elections. And there are certainly other issues to tackle, such as securing minority rights or providing a stable situation for the 11 million undocumented immigrants or the 700,000 “dreamers” (children of migrants born in the United States). These political battles are just as deeply felt as Medicare for All and certainly much less risky for Harris, who no doubt hopes to embody the future of the Democratic Party in the post-Biden era.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The Fact check US section received support from <a href="https://craignewmarkphilanthropies.org/">Craig Newmark Philanthropies</a>, an American foundation fighting against disinformation.</em></p>
<p><em>Translated from the French by Rosie Marsland for <a href="http://www.fastforword.fr/en">Fast ForWord</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154213/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>
From Vice-President Kamala Harris to Senator Bernie Sanders, voices were raised during the campaign for a more accessible US health care system. What can we expect from the Biden administration?
William Genieys, Directeur de recherche CNRS au CEE, Sciences Po
Larry Brown, Professeur invité au Laboratoire interdisciplinaire d'évaluation des politiques publiques (LIEPP), Sciences Po, Columbia University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/152940
2021-01-29T13:29:37Z
2021-01-29T13:29:37Z
How age diversity in a presidential Cabinet could affect policies and programs
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380668/original/file-20210126-15-1o8uq53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C3536%2C2338&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Biden, 78, is America's oldest president. His nominee for secretary of transportation, Pete Buttigieg, is half his age.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/photos/biden-buttigieg?family=editorial&numberofpeople=two&phrase=biden%20buttigieg&sort=best#license">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Joe Biden’s Cabinet and top appointees will likely be the most diverse in U.S. history. He says they were purposely chosen to “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/21/us/biden-cabinet-diversity-gender-race.html">look like America</a>.”</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=3nelzqkAAAAJ&hl=e">scholar of how age is viewed in society</a>, I study age as a major demographic grouping. With regard to President Biden’s Cabinet choices, my question is how diverse these appointments are in terms of age, and whether this matters. </p>
<h2>Uniting boomers and zoomers</h2>
<p>At 78, Joe Biden is the oldest American president. Vice President Kamala Harris is 22 years younger. Most U.S. presidents and vice presidents are closer in age. Mike Pence, for example, is 13 years younger than Donald Trump. </p>
<p>However, there are a few exceptions from recent history. President George H.W. Bush was 23 years older than Vice President Dan Quayle. The other notable exception is the 19-year age difference between President Barack Obama and Vice President Biden. That close working relationship may <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2011.00043">in part explain</a> Biden’s comfort with choosing a running mate and top advisers who are much younger. </p>
<p>As for other Cabinet members, no nominee is as old as the president. Those currently being vetted or already on the job range in age from 39 to 75, with an average age of 56. </p>
<p>Having so many advisers of different ages should – theoretically – bring perspectives from different age groups and better represent constituents of different ages. </p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://longtermcare.acl.gov/the-basics/who-pays-for-long-term-care.html">funding for long-term care</a> is an issue that affects all generations, although it’s typically associated with seniors. </p>
<p>According to research from AARP and the National Alliance for Caregiving, over <a href="https://www.aarp.org/ppi/info-2020/caregiving-in-the-united-states.html">50 million adults</a> in the U.S. provide unpaid care to an adult or child with special needs. Because of shrinking family sizes and the fact that <a href="https://theconversation.com/video-how-will-society-change-as-the-us-population-ages-146903">more seniors</a> are living into their 80s and beyond, middle-aged adults and older are increasingly being called on to care for older relatives. Younger parents, meanwhile, may want to increase long-term care supports for children with special needs.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381212/original/file-20210128-19-ruy00b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Health care worker holds arms of elderly man and woman" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381212/original/file-20210128-19-ruy00b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381212/original/file-20210128-19-ruy00b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381212/original/file-20210128-19-ruy00b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381212/original/file-20210128-19-ruy00b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381212/original/file-20210128-19-ruy00b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381212/original/file-20210128-19-ruy00b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381212/original/file-20210128-19-ruy00b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A hospital worker takes her elderly parents to receive the COVID-19 vaccine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/maria-saravia-center-an-environmental-services-worker-at-news-photo/1230785829">Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another example is the debate over <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/22152601/biden-student-loan-debt-cancellation">student loans</a>. Forgiving college debt might not be a personal priority for older people, but an educated workforce <a href="https://scottpeters.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/reps-peters-and-davis-reintroduce-bipartisan-bill-to-address-rising">unburdened by debt</a> helps drive the economy. With the ratio of working-age to nonworking-age adults <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2020/06/working-age-population-not-keeping-pace-with-growth-in-older-americans.html">declining rapidly</a>, an increase in worker productivity associated with a more skilled workforce can generate the tax revenues to support Social Security and other government benefits for retirees.</p>
<p>And then, of course, there’s the environment. Younger people are <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2016/10/04/the-politics-of-climate/">more likely to see climate change</a> as an urgent issue, while older adults might downplay environmental concerns in favor of economic productivity. Having both perspectives can balance a strong economy with a livable environment for future generations.</p>
<h2>Generational politics</h2>
<p>There’s a popular view that different generations have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s12115-019-00437-7">distinct political identities</a>. According to this theory, major social and political events <a href="http://www.stat.columbia.edu/%7Egelman/research/unpublished/cohort_voting_20140605.pdf">shape generations of voters</a>.</p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://www.lexico.com/en/definition/silent_generation">the silent generation</a>, born between 1928 and 1945, experienced the Great Depression and slow recovery. They consistently hold the most <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2018/03/01/the-generation-gap-in-american-politics/">conservative political ideology</a>. </p>
<p>But political leanings also <a href="https://review.chicagobooth.edu/economics/2020/article/there-are-two-americas-and-age-divider">change over one’s life span</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/by-2030-all-baby-boomers-will-be-age-65-or-older.html#:%7E:text=Baby%20boomers%20have%20changed%20the,estimated%20at%20about%2073%20million.">Baby boomers</a>, who came of age during the tumultuous cultural revolution of the 1960s, by and large rejected traditional values in their youth. They were known for their <a href="https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/story/2019-11-05/column-you-ok-boomer-not-really">antiwar slogans and social justice demands</a>. However, many have grown <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/181325/baby-boomers-likely-identify-conservative.aspx">more politically conservative</a> over time. </p>
<p>Born after 1996, members of <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/on-the-cusp-of-adulthood-and-facing-an-uncertain-future-what-we-know-about-gen-z-so-far/">Gen Z</a> are more ethnically diverse than previous generations, more progressive and more supportive of government programs to address societal problems.</p>
<p>[<em>Get our most insightful politics and election stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-most">Sign up for The Conversation’s Politics Weekly</a>.]</p>
<p>Age-based political theories are based on aggregate behaviors. They do not predict the political persuasions of an individual voter or political leader. After all, Sen. Bernie Sanders, at 79, is one of America’s <a href="https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/report-cards/2019/senate/ideology">most progressive senators</a>. </p>
<p>Age is especially less likely to determine political allegiance among <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/2020/09/23/the-changing-racial-and-ethnic-composition-of-the-u-s-electorate/">racial and ethnic minorities</a>. These groups tend to vote more Democratic regardless of age.</p>
<p>In looking at this issue more carefully, average age and age diversity of Cabinet nominees are likely to influence policy directions. But other considerations – such as long-term political party identification, individual beliefs about the role of government and demographic factors such as race and ethnicity – also will come into play.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152940/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marcia G. Ory does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Millennials and boomers advising Biden can look for common ground on climate change, student loan debt and other key issues.
Marcia G. Ory, Regents and Distinguished Professor of Environmental and Occupational Health, Texas A&M University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/153833
2021-01-25T15:25:42Z
2021-01-25T15:25:42Z
Kamala Harris abuse campaign shows how trolls evade social media moderation
<p>As Vice President Kamala Harris settles into her first full week in the White House, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/black-south-asian-americans-celebrate-my-vice-president-social-media-n1255021">thousands are heading online to celebrate her groundbreaking achievement</a>. Unfortunately, thousands more are flooding social media with sexualised, transphobic, and racist posts which continue to highlight the particular <a href="https://www.power3point0.org/2020/05/01/why-disinformation-targeting-women-undermines-democratic-institutions/">abuse faced by female politicians online</a>. </p>
<p>My colleagues and I <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/malign-creativity-how-gender-sex-and-lies-are-weaponized-against-women-online">studied this abuse</a> in the weeks leading up to the 2020 US presidential election, revealing how trolls and abusers commonly use coded language and dog whistles to evade the <a href="https://slate.com/technology/2020/04/coronavirus-facebook-content-moderation-automated.html">moderation efforts</a> of social media companies. This evolution of online hate speech undermines the “automated moderation” tools that platforms are currently using to tackle hate speech.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-publish-or-not-to-publish-the-medias-free-speech-dilemmas-in-a-world-of-division-violence-and-extremism-153451">To publish or not to publish? The media's free-speech dilemmas in a world of division, violence and extremism</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>As well as abuse and hate speech, our team tracked the proliferation of “gendered and sexualised disinformation narratives” about 13 female politicians across six social media platforms. These false or misleading narratives are based on women’s gender or sexuality, and are often spread with some degree of coordination. </p>
<p>In one example of gendered disinformation, a <a href="http://worldpolicy.org/2017/12/20/how-disinformation-became-a-new-threat-to-women/">former Ukrainian MP</a> was targeted with doctored images of her running naked around the streets of Kyiv on Twitter. The former MP has stated that the image and narrative still circulates online whenever she does public work abroad.</p>
<h2>Evading moderation</h2>
<p>Our study, which collected data between September and November 2020, found over 336,000 abusive posts on Twitter, Reddit, Gab, Parler, 4chan and 8kun, 78% of which targeted Kamala Harris. That equates to four abusive posts a minute over the course of our two-month study period – and three a minute directed at the woman who is now vice president of the United States. Each of these posts had the capacity to be shared thousands of times, exponentially multiplying their reach.</p>
<p>Social media companies are using <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2053951720943234">automated content moderation tools</a> in an effort to flag and delete gendered hate speech quicker. These tools are designed to instantly detect harmful social media posts, but they can only do so by being told which words <a href="https://www.newamerica.org/oti/reports/everything-moderation-analysis-how-internet-platforms-are-using-artificial-intelligence-moderate-user-generated-content/how-automated-tools-are-used-in-the-content-moderation-process/">are considered abusive</a>. This leaves a “blind spot” for any abusive language which has yet to be flagged as abusive by human moderators.</p>
<p>Our research shows that online abusers are evolving the language they use in order to <a href="https://scholarship.law.cornell.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2620&context=facpub">avoid detection by moderation tools</a>. We call this process “malign creativity”, which we believe to be a significant challenge social media companies must overcome if they are to conduct effective content moderation at scale. </p>
<p>We’ve observed abusers crafting false narratives and memes, tailored to the female politician they seek to harass, and shrouded in coded language. An example of a false sexualised narrative we saw against Kamala Harris was that she “slept her way to the top” and is therefore unfit to hold office. This narrative spread across platforms with hashtags that no automated classifier could detect without being pre-coded to do so, such as #HeelsUpHarris or #KneePadsKamala. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380330/original/file-20210124-17-niqu0j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A network of words connected by lines. The words are abusive and sexualised and reference Kamala Harris" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380330/original/file-20210124-17-niqu0j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380330/original/file-20210124-17-niqu0j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380330/original/file-20210124-17-niqu0j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380330/original/file-20210124-17-niqu0j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380330/original/file-20210124-17-niqu0j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380330/original/file-20210124-17-niqu0j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380330/original/file-20210124-17-niqu0j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A network visualisation showing some of the abusive terms, often coded, shared about Kamala Harris between September and November 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wilson Center Malign Creativity Report</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Through network visualisation, we saw that some users who engaged with this narrative also engaged with other sexualised, racist and transphobic narratives. This underscored the intersectional abuse that <a href="https://decoders.amnesty.org/projects/troll-patrol/findings">women of colour face online</a>.</p>
<h2>Prioritising moderation</h2>
<p>Coded language and dog whistles (which are subtle messages designed to be understood by a certain audience without being explicit) make detecting gendered and sexualised disinformation on social media <a href="https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0028/157249/cambridge-consultants-ai-content-moderation.pdf">particularly difficult without high levels of investment</a> in detection technology. That’s why our report recommends social media platforms update their content moderation tools to pick up on new and emerging narratives that demean the world’s most powerful women. </p>
<p>This should be done in coordination with the women themselves, or their campaign and marketing teams. Platforms must also allow women to submit “incident reports” that cover multiple individual posts, rather than forcing them to report each piece of abusive content, one at a time – which is both laborious and upsetting.</p>
<p>Gendered and sexualised disinformation affects the public’s perceptions of high-profile women. Some women at the beginning of their careers <a href="https://www.ndi.org/sites/default/files/NDI%20Tweets%20That%20Chill%20Report.pdf">may feel harder hit by gendered disinformation and abuse</a>, choosing not to enter public-facing careers at all due to the abuse they see targeted at others – and at themselves. </p>
<p>One recent study found that <a href="https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/oso/9780190089283.001.0001/oso-9780190089283">women decrease their engagement online</a> to avoid ongoing or potential harassment. One of those interviewed in the study resented that she had to “wade through all this filth… to just do the basic function of participating” on social media. These sentiments highlight the harsh reality that women must accept if they wish to engage online, where harassment is <a href="https://www.womensmediacenter.com/speech-project/online-abuse-101/#men-harassed">more sustained and violent compared to what men face</a>.</p>
<p>Kamala Harris’ historic inauguration has been cause for celebration for women, and women of colour especially. It’s also an opportunity for a new generation of women to feel inspired to pursue leadership roles. </p>
<p>To ensure women are inspired by the presence of other women in high office and not dissuaded by the abuse they may face, social media platforms and governments are responsible for providing spaces in which women can participate equally online. Effectively moderating the gendered abuse women suffer on social media – especially that which passes undetected by automated tools – is a crucial part of that responsibility.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153833/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexandra Pavliuc is London Project Lead at the Faculty of Communication and Design, Ryerson University, and a Visiting Fellow at Institut Montaigne.</span></em></p>
New research suggests tech firms need to improve how they detect abuse in response to the evolving use of coded language.
Alexandra Pavliuc, PhD Candidate at the Oxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/153082
2021-01-20T19:38:17Z
2021-01-20T19:38:17Z
From Biden’s giant Bible to Christian flags waved by rioters, ‘religion’ means different things to different people and different eras
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379793/original/file-20210120-15-w5ubsv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=102%2C0%2C4450%2C2974&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Jill Biden holds the Bible as Joe Biden is sworn in as the 46th president of the United States on Jan. 20, 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXBidenInauguration/bf38c38e033d454db219b7a127875261/photo?Query=joe%20biden%20bible&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=134&currentItemNo=3">Saul Loeb/Pool Photo via AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Bible featured prominently in the inauguration. In fact, three were used in the swearing-in ceremonies – Kamala Harris used both Thurgood Marshall’s and one belonging to a friend; Joseph Biden used <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/20/us/politics/bible-inauguration-biden.html">a 128-year-old family Bible</a>. </p>
<p>About two weeks earlier, on Jan. 6, rioters who stormed the U.S. Capitol also held <a href="https://www.denisonforum.org/columns/daily-article/was-the-capitol-riot-a-christian-insurrection-why-we-must-live-as-though-the-truth-were-true/">Bibles</a> as a nod to the apparent religious motivations for their actions. The mob took with them flags saturated with <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/taking-america-back-for-god-9780190057886?cc=us&lang=en&">Christian nationalist</a> ideology, such as <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/01/19/958159202/militant-christian-nationalists-remain-a-potent-force">banners</a> with “Jesus Saves” written on them accompanied by chants that “<a href="https://slate.com/human-interest/2021/01/trump-capitol-riot-evangelical-leaders-reactions.html">Christ is king, Trump is president</a>.” </p>
<p>These and other <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691179131/bible-culture-and-authority-in-the-early-united-states">religious symbols</a>, used both in the service of the presidential transfer of power and also violent protests, demonstrate how deeply religion can motivate people in society and influence their actions politically. </p>
<p>Yet the way people think about religion these days, <a href="https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199543670.001.0001/acprof-9780199543670">often as a set of beliefs</a>, has evolved across time and cultures.</p>
<h2>Religion in ancient Near East</h2>
<p>As a <a href="https://colorado.academia.edu/SamBoyd">scholar</a> of the Bible and the ancient Near East, I study the role of religion in history and how this term originated and came to be understood over the centuries.</p>
<p>For most cultures in <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/religion/religion-general-interest/religions-ancient-near-east?format=HB&isbn=9780521864756">the ancient world</a>, such as Egypt, <a href="https://www.eerdmans.com/Products/2959/an-introduction-to-ancient-mesopotamian-religion.aspx">Assyria and Babylon</a>, until the second century B.C., there was no word for “religion” as a singular, abstract concept.</p>
<p>While these cultures had rituals and rites for worshiping gods and goddesses, there was not a singular word in these languages that refers to “religion” in the modern sense. For example, the <a href="https://www.degruyter.com/view/title/305499">Assyrians</a> had a unique blend of religious devotion to their chief god Assur and a belief in a divine mandate to spread their empire, but they did not have one word to cover all such practices and beliefs. </p>
<p>The same is true for the Old Testament, written in Hebrew and Aramaic from approximately the ninth century B.C. to the second century B.C. There is no word that can really be <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/the-religions-of-ancient-israel-9780826447289/">translated as “religion</a>” in the modern sense in the Old Testament, even if there were <a href="http://cup.columbia.edu/book/when-heroes-love/9780231132602">religious concepts</a>, such as prayers and acts of piety toward the god of Israel.</p>
<p>The evidence from the ancient Near East and the Old Testament points to a complex set of practices that defy a singular notion of religion, such as a creed of faith or spirituality in distinction from other realms of society such as politics or economics. </p>
<h2>Early Christianity</h2>
<p>A similar complexity appears in the history of early Christianity in how religion functioned, both in terms of rituals and in the use of the Latin term it derives from.</p>
<p>The word “religion” in English originates from the <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/C/bo3644201.html">Latin “religio</a>.” One of its earliest appearances is in works such as the plays of second-century B.C. writer <a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-us/A+Companion+to+Plautus-p-9781118957981">Plautus</a>. </p>
<p>According to the classicist <a href="http://classics.emory.edu/home/people/niall-w-slater.html">Niall Slater</a>, the word defies “<a href="https://brill.com/view/book/edcoll/9789004214217/Bej.9789004194120.i-415_017.xml">a theologically rigorous definition</a>” in Plautus. It means something like “awe” in one passage, as well as reserve, in the often ironic sense of characters who find themselves in situations in which they display restraints from certain impulses. For example, in one scene in Plautus’ “Asinaria,” a woman is bound by a contract from following other male lovers, including gods, a restraint called “religiosa.”</p>
<p>In the classical age, religion could possibly imply “<a href="https://brill.com/view/book/edcoll/9789004214217/Bej.9789004194120.i-415_017.xm">scruples</a>,” as evident in the writings of Plautus and certainly a few decades later in the writings of playwright Publius Terentius Afer.</p>
<p>By the first century B.C., the word began to be associated with devotion to the divine realm. As seen in the writings of the orator and politician <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/cicero-on-the-philosophy-of-religion/607925E314E42494A94A7FF7E85CB76B#fndtn-information">Cicero</a>, one conception of the Latin religio that became frequent in Roman texts was the specific rituals and rites that were a part of worship of the gods and goddesses. </p>
<p>According to the classicist <a href="https://edinburgh.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.3366/edinburgh/9780748615650.001.0001/upso-9780748615650">Clifford Ando</a> and scholar of religion <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300216783/religion">Brent Nongbri</a>, for Cicero each ritual could be a religio, and, at the same time, when Romans performed all such rituals they could together be referred to as a “single, Roman, religio.”</p>
<p>However, <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300098396/christians-romans-saw-them">Roman thinkers</a> did not use this term for Christianity in its earliest phases. In the second century A.D., Roman writers such as Pliny, Tacitus and Suetonius labeled Christianity not a religio but rather a superstitio, or a “superstition,” a term usually applied to non-Roman, foreign practices. </p>
<p>Eventually <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/christianity-in-the-second-century/B59DE699BBFD1CAC3BB01739F38B29B3">Galen</a>, a physician and philosopher who died in A.D. 210 in Rome, would call Christianity a “philosophical school,” elevating the status of the movement. </p>
<p>Early Christians who wrote in Latin, beginning with Tertullian in the second century A.D., often used the word religio to refer to their own rituals and rites, though <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300216783/religion">other uses</a> appeared as well, which were inherited from the variety of definitions employed by earlier Latin writers.</p>
<p>The ancient Latin translations of the New Testament, which was originally written in Greek, use religio when rendering passages such as James 1:26-27, which described true religion as care for orphans and widows and keeping oneself unstained from worldly <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/purity-and-worldview-in-the-epistle-of-james-9780567591210/">pollution, or sin</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379795/original/file-20210120-23-zmnszw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Kamala Harris is sworn in on a Bible" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379795/original/file-20210120-23-zmnszw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379795/original/file-20210120-23-zmnszw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379795/original/file-20210120-23-zmnszw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379795/original/file-20210120-23-zmnszw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379795/original/file-20210120-23-zmnszw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379795/original/file-20210120-23-zmnszw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379795/original/file-20210120-23-zmnszw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Kamala Harris is sworn in as vice president as her husband Doug Emhoff holds the Bible during the 59th presidential inauguration at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BidenInauguration/0b40e514133749eda0859c8160c0487c/photo?Query=kamala%20harris%20bible&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=24&currentItemNo=5">AP Photo/Andrew Harnik</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Modern-day interpretation</h2>
<p>So how did the modern interpretation of religion come about?</p>
<p>If, according to 19th-century German philosopher <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/ludwig-feuerbach/">Ludwig Feuerbach</a>, humans are prone to imagining God in their own image, then according to the scholar of religion <a href="https://mf.academia.edu/BrentNongbri">Brent Nongbri</a> people are often tempted to do the same with our understanding of the word “religion.” </p>
<p><a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300216783/religion">As Nongbri observes</a>, people need to be aware that when they encounter the word “religion” in English translations of ancient sources, it is not the same as spirituality or belief in the sense of an abstract set of convictions. </p>
<p>Often religion is thought of as referring to some inner disposition or abstract belief, such as privately held convictions about salvation separate from politics. The 17th-century thinker John Locke argued this point in his book, “<a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/second-treatise-of-government-and-a-letter-concerning-toleration-9780198732440?cc=us&lang=en&">A Letter Concerning Toleration</a>.” </p>
<p>Yet, as Nongbri argues, the concept of religion as an activity distinct from others, such as “<a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300216783/religion">politics, economics, and science</a>,” is a recent and modern contrast, alien to ancient societies. In ancient societies, religion was part of every facet of life because gods and goddesses were involved in every facet of life.</p>
<p>Indeed, the inner, spiritual and privatized nature of what many think of as religion is more a reflection of modern <a href="https://brill.com/view/journals/mtsr/31/1/article-p71_8.xml">Protestant Christian developments</a> and has little to do with the origins of the term.</p>
<p>[<em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153082/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samuel L. Boyd does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
From the oath-taking on the Bible during the presidential swearing-in ceremony to the ‘awe’ and ‘restraint’ of the early Christian world, the meaning of ‘religion’ has gone through a long journey.
Samuel L. Boyd, Assistant Professor of Religious Studies and Jewish Studies, University of Colorado Boulder
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.