tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/paris-climate-talks-23319/articlesParis climate talks – The Conversation2020-12-10T13:36:22Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1517222020-12-10T13:36:22Z2020-12-10T13:36:22Z5 years after Paris: How countries’ climate policies match up to their promises, and who’s aiming for net zero emissions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374047/original/file-20201209-23-1ozain2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=513%2C390%2C2035%2C1339&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Even if every country meets its commitments, the world will still be on track to warm by more than 3 degrees Celsius this century, a new UNEP report shows.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/chinese-labourer-loads-coal-into-a-furnace-as-smoke-and-news-photo/625667994">Kevin Frayer/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Saturday marks the fifth anniversary of the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris climate agreement</a> – the commitment by almost every country to try to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.</p>
<p>It’s an ambitious goal, and the clock is ticking.</p>
<p>The planet has already warmed by about 1 C since the start of the industrial era. That might not sound like much, but that first degree is <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">changing the planet</a> in profound ways, from more extreme heat waves that put human health and crops at risk, to rising sea levels.</p>
<p>Bold visions for slowing global warming have emerged from all over the world. Less clear is how countries will meet them.</p>
<p>So far, countries’ individual plans for how they will lower their greenhouse gas emissions don’t come close to adding up to the Paris Agreement’s goals. Even if every country meets its current commitments, the world will still be on track to warm by more than 3 C this century, according to the United Nations Environment Program’s latest “<a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/emissions-gap-report-2020">Emissions Gap Report</a>,” released ahead of the anniversary. And many of those commitments aren’t yet backed by government actions.</p>
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic’s economic slowdown likely reduced global carbon dioxide emissions by <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/emissions-gap-report-2020">about 7% this year</a>, but that temporary dip will have very little effect, the report notes – unless countries prioritize a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/28/eu-green-recovery-package-sets-a-marker-for-the-world">green recovery</a>.</p>
<p>This fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreement was intended to be a progress check, with countries expected to increase their commitments. But because of the pandemic, the meeting and negotiations were postponed to November 2021. A smaller online <a href="https://www.cas2021.com/latest/events/2020/12/12/climate-ambition-summit">Climate Ambitions Summit</a> was planned for Dec. 12 instead. </p>
<p>Despite the delay, some big goals have been announced. In particular, more countries are now committing to reach net zero carbon emissions by midcentury. The U.S. is also expected to rejoin the agreement next year under President-elect Joe Biden. </p>
<p>But how well-grounded are these climate commitments in actual budgets, policies and regulations? As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=sfI-c0YAAAAJ&hl=en">energy</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=DAwwVkwAAAAJ&hl=en">policy experts</a>, we have both been involved in global climate negotiations, technology analysis and policy design for the last two decades, and we have watched the national commitments for signs of progress.</p>
<h2>Ambitious goals, but missing actions</h2>
<p>The Paris Agreement’s formal goal is to stay “well below” 2 degrees of warming. That’s based on political negotiations and scientific research <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">that models the increasingly harmful effects</a> rising temperatures will have on today’s economies, agriculture and environment.</p>
<p>The sooner the world’s emissions trajectory starts downward, the smoother the transition will be.</p>
<p>The leaders of China, Japan and South Korea each announced goals in recent weeks for reaching net zero carbon emissions by mid-century. But the detailed plans for how they will get there are largely missing.</p>
<p>Chinese President Xi Jinping drew global praise when he announced in September that his country’s emissions – the highest in the world – would <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/24/china-carbon-emissions-420967">peak earlier than expected</a>, before 2030, and that China would strive to be carbon neutral by 2060. How and whether that happens will depend heavily on <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-politics-carbon-plan/xis-carbon-neutrality-vow-to-reshape-chinas-five-year-plan-idUSKBN27B08B">the country’s next Five Year Plan</a>, due in March. The leadership’s priorities include expanding clean energy, but right now, China is still the world’s largest coal user, and coal accounts for three-fifths of its energy supply. </p>
<p>South Korean President Moon Jae-in offered <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkora-environment-greenewdeal/south-koreas-moon-targets-carbon-neutrality-by-2050-idUSKBN27D1DU">more detailed goals</a> in November when he ordered government officials to develop a road map for transitioning to cleaner energy and carbon neutrality by 2050. He said his country would invest US$7 billion in green projects, launch a carbon tax to encourage companies to reduce their emissions, and stop financing overseas coal plants. But those ideas, too, fall short of carbon neutrality in an economy that relies on energy-intensive industries.</p>
<p>The European Union is farther ahead. It established a net zero objective some time ago along with scenarios for how to get there. This summer, the EU put climate-friendly projects at the heart of its <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-summit-climate-change-factbox/factbox-how-green-is-the-eus-recovery-deal-idUSKCN24M19V">pandemic recovery strategy</a>. Just before the summit, EU leaders also <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/11/eu-leaders-reach-deal-to-cut-emissions-by-at-least-55-by-end-of-decade">agreed to increase</a> the union’s short-term goal to cut emissions 55% by 2030, up from 40%. EU member states are now expected to develop long-term strategies for 2050 and revise their <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/energy/topics/energy-strategy/national-energy-climate-plans_en">national energy and climate plans</a> through 2030. </p>
<p>The U.K. has announced a new 68% emissions reduction target for 2030. Meeting <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/sixth-carbon-budget/">this target</a> will require the U.K. to double its efforts compared to the last three decades.</p>
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<h2>The big picture</h2>
<p>Overall, the current “nationally determined contributions” – the plans that countries submit to the U.N. spelling out how they will meet the Paris Agreement – fall far short. A <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/global/cat-emissions-gaps/">five-fold acceleration in emissions reductions</a> is needed to come close. </p>
<p>Just days before the Ambitions Summit, <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/climate-target-update-tracker/">only 13 countries had submitted new targets</a>, and seven had announced they would not update their targets or resubmitted old targets. However, nearly half of high-emitting countries have indicated they will raise their mitigation ambitions by the end of next year. </p>
<p>Twenty-one states and regions have set <a href="https://www.theclimategroup.org/AnnualDisclosure2020">long-term targets</a> to reduce their emissions by 75%-90%, but how these will be met is not clear, a recent analysis found. Most <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2020/10/22/cities-are-pledging-to-confront-climate-change-but-are-their-actions-working/">pledges by cities</a> are similarly aspirational.</p>
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<h2>Ramping up fast</h2>
<p>Even if established clean technologies like renewable energy are at the core of the transition, the pace of change required to meet the Paris goals remains daunting. Socioeconomic issues will also have to be put front and center.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2020/Sep/Reaching-Zero-with-Renewables">Net-zero solutions</a> are technically conceivable for a range of energy-intensive industries, agriculture and transport methods, but the speed and scale at which they would have to ramp up to meet a 2050 deadline is formidable.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2019.01.006">Our analysis</a> found the deployment of renewable power would need to accelerate two- to three-fold. Global renewable energy use would need to go from around 20% of energy today to 65% by 2050, and from 28% to 85% of the power sector. Electric vehicle use would have to skyrocket, from less than 10 million EVs today to more than 1.5 billion by 2050. </p>
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<h2>Filling in the gaps</h2>
<p>To finance these transformations, investors need to be confident that the world is committed to a cleaner future. Perceived risk will drive up costs, and uncertain or delayed government action <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-01312-5">are big risks</a>. International financial organizations, along with green banks and development banks, have an important role to play in encouraging private investment. </p>
<p>Moving from a focus on high-level goals to detailed pathways will help. </p>
<p>The global climate talks can continue to help by focusing on the specifics of the national commitments, ensuring they are detailed, well-designed and budgeted, and updated regularly. </p>
<p>The international community will also need to support countries that need assistance. Climate change is not the primary priority for most jurisdictions – though it is an existential crisis for some, including some small island states. That needs to be acknowledged and built in to the goals and planning.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated with the EU Council’s agreement on Dec. 11 to increase its short-term targets.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151722/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dolf Gielen works for IRENA, an Intergovernmental Agency that advises its members on energy transition and climate.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Morgan Bazilian does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Bold visions for slowing global warming have emerged from all over the world. What’s not clear is how countries will meet them.Morgan Bazilian, Professor of Public Policy and Director, Payne Institute, Colorado School of MinesDolf Gielen, Payne Institute Fellow, Colorado School of MinesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/833202017-11-06T10:53:04Z2017-11-06T10:53:04ZHow telling the right stories can make people act on climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190424/original/file-20171016-31002-cmypv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The disaster narrative is counterproductive.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/success ">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The latest <a href="http://unfccc.int/meetings/bonn_nov_2017/meeting/10084.php">UN Climate Change Conference</a> since the 2015 Paris Agreement is taking place in Bonn between November 6-17 – and the world will be watching. The conference will be presided over by the government of Fiji, a country that is no stranger to the devastation that climate change brings. </p>
<p>At first glance, modern Fiji’s narrative follows a recognisable storyline: vanishing islands, a culture slipping away, and a people unsure of what their future holds. It tells a familiar tale of vulnerable villages in fear of rising tides and residents as victims on the frontline of climate change. </p>
<p>Stories help us to share facts, knowledge and experiences about the causes and effects of a changing world. Yet they are more than just educational tools, they also shape our lives and help define us. From the news to <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-reasons-why-game-of-thrones-satisfies-our-needs-apart-from-all-the-sex-and-violence-80502">Game of Thrones</a>, stories hold the immense ability to alter what we do and do not see. They do this by activating and exciting the neural pathways in our brains that form the basis for our actions. </p>
<p>According to doomsday narratives about climate change, such as the one about Fiji, communities are neither empowered nor resilient, nor do they hold much agency over their future. When we constantly see stories about communities in crisis as sea levels rise and extreme weather events become more frequent, we come away with notions that there is no hope – the future is presented as an ominously uncertain but seemingly inevitable defeat. </p>
<p>Yet, such doomsday narratives are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/12/doomsday-narratives-climate-change-dangerous-wrong">counterproductive, dangerous … and wrong</a>.</p>
<p>We can survive climate change. There is something simple and concrete that each of us can do. Telling and sharing stories, from the scientific to the personal, is one of our most important tools. However, they are different stories than the Fijian one.</p>
<h2>A new hope</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.energyplusillawarra.com.au/">Energy+Illawarra</a> is a community-oriented, interdisciplinary, strategic social intervention programme. Engineers, geographers, and marketers work together to improve energy efficiency in the homes of low-income, older people in Illawarra, a region in New South Wales, Australia. </p>
<p>Ultimately, humankind must <a href="http://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/10016/emission_gap_report_2016.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">rapidly decarbonise</a> the environment to avoid dangerous climate change. Being more efficient with energy is an effective way to do that. This project has that message at its heart.</p>
<p>First, the energy use and attitudes towards energy efficiency of 830 households in the community were measured. Then, a series of 11 focus groups with 59 participants from the community were carried out to collect their stories relating to energy efficiency. These stories were then used to help develop ten short films that bust participants’ misconceptions and myths about everyday energy use and provide strategies on how to use energy more efficiently. </p>
<p>Each film features audiovisual footage of real project participants telling their stories and focuses on the energy use of an everyday household appliance, from fridge freezers and lighting to the washer dryer. </p>
<p>Following the development of these films, we assessed their efficacy. We conducted cognitive neuroscientific research using electroencephalography (EEG) to identify brain wave activity associated with watching these films. The experiment involved people watching the films while they were attached to the EEG equipment that measured their neural response to the stories. Sixteen people from the community participated in the experiment. All the study participants watched the same films in random order, while undergoing the EEG scans.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187401/original/file-20170925-17437-1kx817a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187401/original/file-20170925-17437-1kx817a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187401/original/file-20170925-17437-1kx817a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187401/original/file-20170925-17437-1kx817a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187401/original/file-20170925-17437-1kx817a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=618&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187401/original/file-20170925-17437-1kx817a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=618&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187401/original/file-20170925-17437-1kx817a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=618&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">At the heart of a good story.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/retro-fridge-isolated-on-white-bacground-715056574?src=vZK1QkhOvcy27ur99FN5Xw-3-48">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>What we found</h2>
<p><a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=2892967">The results</a> showed heightened activity in areas of the brain associated with empathising with the story characters as well as imagination of, attention for, and memorising of the story plot. These mental processes are involved in spurring our brains into action. </p>
<p>Brain response was especially strong for the fridge freezer film, which featured a real project participant telling stories about his fridge, followed by animations providing technical advice and guidance on energy efficiency. </p>
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<p>This household appliance <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14649365.2015.1075580?journalCode=rscg20">has been associated with</a> the visceral nervous system and deep inward feelings, because it stores a basic need: food. We already knew that engaging stories can put you in another person’s shoes in a figurative sense. The fridge freezer film suggests that watching an engaging story can also transport you into the “body” of an object. </p>
<p>The films have been extensively distributed through the project website, social media, and special LCD brochures that were sent to households as well as community and health centres across regional New South Wales, Australia. Afterwards, the energy use and attitudes towards energy efficiency of the same community households as before were measured again. <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/energymog/files/rdai.pdf">The findings</a> showed that the films have begun to reduce energy use in the community and change the climate change narrative, with meter reading data revealing that energy use dropped by between 0.45% to 22.5%, depending on the type of household.</p>
<p>Instead of presenting a narrative of helpless climate change victims and an inevitable future of defeat, these films tell stories that bust misconceptions and myths about everyday energy use and provide strategies and support for using energy efficiently. <a href="http://www.energyplusillawarra.com.au/?page_id=84">Take a look</a> to see just how easy it is to make a difference. Let’s rewire our brains and act. A better environment starts with us.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83320/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ross Gordon received funding for this project from the Australian Government, Department of Industry, Innovation and Science through the Low-Income Energy-Efficiency Program. Ross was the programme leader of Energy+lllawarra. He is also the President of the Australian Association of Social Marketing - an independent, volunteer based organisation representing behaviour change and social good.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom van Laer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new study shows that positive tales make a difference.Tom van Laer, Senior Lecturer in Marketing, City, University of LondonRoss Gordon, Associate Professor in Social Marketing, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/709622017-01-23T00:41:45Z2017-01-23T00:41:45ZChina steps up as US steps back from global leadership<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153746/original/image-20170122-30975-1n2h3fs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">China's President Xi Jinping at the podium at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Michel Euler</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Chinese President Xi Jinping’s <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/20/overheard-at-davos-world-leaders-speak-out-at-the-world-economic-forum-2017.html?slide=1">appearance</a> at last week’s World Economic Forum shows global leadership is shifting, not drifting, toward Beijing. The most vigorous defense of globalization and multilateral cooperation was mounted not by an American statesman, but by the president of the People’s Republic of China. </p>
<p>“The problems troubling the world are not caused by globalization,” Xi <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/67ec2ec0-dca2-11e6-9d7c-be108f1c1dce">declared</a>. “Countries should view their own interest in the broader context and refrain from pursuing their own interests at the expense of others.”</p>
<p>Speculation is mounting that the United States, with Donald Trump cast in the role of president, will ignore international <a href="https://aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Why-American-Leadership-Still-Matters_online.pdf">challenges</a>, renounce global <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/ef13e61a-ccec-11e6-b8ce-b9c03770f8b1">responsibilities</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-new-world-order/2017/01/01/fc54c3e6-ce9d-11e6-a747-d03044780a02_story.html?utm_term=.fcfbb6b7018a">abandon</a> friends and allies. </p>
<p>As Washington greets a new administration disinclined to play a worldwide role, Beijing increasingly accepts opportunities to lead. Xi and his colleagues understand that their country’s domestic development and global ascendance require steady engagement and honest efforts abroad.</p>
<p>Yes, China has “done the right thing” before. It has <a href="http://www.wattagnet.com/articles/10313-china-to-ban-antibiotics-as-growth-promoters">restricted</a> antibiotics in food-animal agriculture, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-could-be-the-best-thing-thats-happened-to-china-in-a-long-time/2017/01/12/f4d71a3a-d913-11e6-9a36-1d296534b31e_story.html">created</a> a new infrastructure-development bank for Asia, <a href="http://www.oecd.org/dac/povertyreduction/40378067.pdf">aided</a> previously exploited African countries and promised to end its internal <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/30/world/asia/china-ivory-ban-elephants.html">ivory trade</a>. </p>
<p>But never before has China so forthrightly stepped up when the United States appears to be stepping away. As scholars of Chinese <a href="http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/689684">strategy</a> and the intersection of science and politics, we see how Beijing’s ambitions and interests will affect its engagement on a range of important international issues. </p>
<h2>The case of climate change</h2>
<p>Climate change policy is one good example of this trend. Commentators warn that Trump’s pledge to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement would let China “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-case-for-saving-the-paris-agreement/2016/12/04/74407b12-b81d-11e6-b8df-600bd9d38a02_story.html?utm_term=.25f01fd64b61">off the hook</a>” for curbing carbon emissions. In fact, China put itself “on the hook” in Paris for reasons having little to do with the United States.</p>
<p>China’s most urgent atmospheric problem is not carbon dioxide. It’s combustion toxicity from burning coal, oil and biomass. The Chinese these days don’t look through their air; they look at it. And what they see, they breathe.</p>
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<p>Combustion toxicity has degraded China’s air quality so much, by Chinese assessments, as to <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=F_91BgAAQBAJ&pg=PA30&dq=daniel+lynch+china+futures+environmental+damage&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj3893i8b3RAhUL0IMKHQT5DXgQ6AEIHDAA#v=onepage&q=daniel%20lynch%20china%20futures%20environmental%20damage&f=false">destroy</a> 10 percent of GDP annually since the late 1980s and cause hundreds of thousands of <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10555816/Chinas-airpocalypse-kills-350000-to-500000-each-year.html">premature deaths</a> every year. And air pollution has become China’s single greatest cause of <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-03-06/pollution-passes-land-grievances-as-main-spark-of-china-protests">social unrest</a>.</p>
<p>In response, China is <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/24/chinas-crackdown-on-coal-continues/">closing</a> its old coal-fired power plants, and the <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/10/30/chinas-leaner-and-greener-5-year-plan/">new ones</a> it’s building are much farther away from its prosperous and politically influential eastern cities. Other fossil-fueled industries are being put farther away, too. China has also <a href="http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-sino-russian-hydrocarbon-axis-grows-10508?page=show">contracted</a> with Russia to buy huge amounts of natural gas, whose combustion emits lots of CO2 but not a lot of toxic air pollutants.</p>
<p>These moves will expose fewer people, especially prosperous urban dwellers, to toxic air pollution. On their own, though, these moves will not do much to meet carbon targets and restrain warming.</p>
<p>In an even better bet to clear its air, China is moving to add more <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/china-nuclear-power.aspx">nuclear</a>, <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/24/chinas-crackdown-on-coal-continues/">hydroelectric</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/05/world/asia/china-renewable-energy-investment.html?action=click&contentCollection=Asia%20Pacific&module=RelatedCoverage&region=EndOfArticle&pgtype=article&_r=1">solar and wind turbine</a> generating capacity. Greenpeace <a href="http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/2016/09/08/china-six-little-known-facts-countrys-solar-wind-boom/">estimates</a> that during every hour of every day in 2015, China on average installed more than one new wind turbine, and enough solar panels to cover a soccer field.</p>
<p>China is already the world’s leading producer of renewable energy technologies. More remarkably, it is also the leading consumer. And in January, it announced plans to invest an additional <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/05/world/asia/china-renewable-energy-investment.html?action=click&contentCollection=Asia%20Pacific&module=RelatedCoverage&region=EndOfArticle&pgtype=article&_r=2">US$360 billion</a> in renewable power between now and 2020. That’s $120 billion a year.</p>
<p>These renewable power measures are being taken to fight China’s number one problem – air pollution – but they will also automatically cut China’s carbon emissions. If it can <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/15/world/asia/china-gansu-wind-farm.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news">manage</a> political rivalries among local power companies and upgrade its electrical grid to handle all that solar and wind capacity, then China is likely to meet its Paris commitments earlier than currently required. </p>
<p>Defecting from Paris would not help China address its air pollution problem. Defection would, however, reinforce the presumption that U.S. leadership is indispensable – a presumption Beijing is loath to perpetuate.</p>
<p>A savvier and more probable move is for China to assert – for the first time on a major global issue – moral authority. Chinese diplomats are <a href="https://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/11/19/world/asia/china-trump-climate-change.html">already</a> reassuring the world that China will keep and even expand its climate commitments. This message conveys Beijing’s resolve not to let multilateral greenhouse gas mitigation collapse, and show the way out of a crisis whose agreed solution is threatened by others’ malfeasance. </p>
<h2>National interest in global leadership</h2>
<p>If sustained, such action will mark a critical inflection point in China’s global role. It will become less a challenger to an established order, and more a champion of a common cause. The United States will risk being regarded as aloof and unreliable and, following its 2016 election, even politically unstable. </p>
<p>Likewise, Beijing is asserting greater leadership in other areas once led by Washington. With the demise of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which Washington negotiated with 11 Asian countries excluding China, Beijing is <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-could-be-the-best-thing-thats-happened-to-china-in-a-long-time/2017/01/12/f4d71a3a-d913-11e6-9a36-1d296534b31e_story.html?utm_term=.21e12376ec0c&wpisrc=nl_opinions&wpmm=1">promoting</a> its own Pacific trade-and-investment framework excluding the United States. </p>
<p>Even more grandly, Xi is articulating an <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FEK_P3U1Lyk&t=665s">alternative</a> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5tFXUit4To&t=1s">vision</a> for global economic growth. The model focuses on physical investment, especially in transportation and IT infrastructure. In this, it is linked to the <a href="http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10l.1086/689684">new Silk Road</a> project, through which China is expanding linkages across Eurasia by integrating railways, ports and information networks into transnational corridors. The Chinese approach also does not rely on portfolio investment and central banks exertions to drive growth – a sharp contrast to Western policies.</p>
<p>Ceding global moral authority to China would be a high price for America to pay for the pleasures of political posturing. Yet a China leading by example would have a greater stake in its own reputation, and the greater that stake becomes the more engaged China becomes. Such a China, we believe, could profoundly benefit the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70962/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Leaders are worried US leadership on global issues like climate change will be diminished under President Trump. Experts explain why China is ready to lead, and how that could be a good thing.Flynt L. Leverett, Professor of International Affairs and Asian Studies, Penn StateRobert Sprinkle, Associate Professor of Public Policy, University of MarylandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/679922016-11-03T22:19:58Z2016-11-03T22:19:58ZThe rubber will hit the road for developing countries at COP22 in Marrakech<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144249/original/image-20161102-27218-ypucpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hard decisions must be made, and commitments must be backed up by concrete action at this year's climate conference in Morocco.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The main objective of the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/paris/index_en.htm">Paris Climate Agreement</a> is to limit the global temperature increase to well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5. The recognition of the 1.5 degree target is of central importance. This is because African countries are highly vulnerable to climate change.</p>
<p>Temperatures across Africa, however, are rising. This year marks the moment when carbon dioxide officially passed the symbolic 400 parts per million (ppm) mark. And, according to scientists, it will not return to below this in <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/world-passes-400-ppm-threshold-permanently-20738">our lifetimes</a>. The safe level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is <a href="http://400.350.org">350ppm</a>. Passing the symbolic 400ppm mark permanently is a clear sign that mean annual temperature rise in Africa is likely to exceed 2°C by the end of this century.</p>
<p>The deal <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php">struck</a> last December under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Paris marked a seminal moment in the development of the international climate change regime. The deal is also an important tool in mobilising finance, technological support and capacity building for developing countries to help them cope with and tackle climate change.</p>
<p>But the details still need to be worked out. As Patricia Espinosa, the Executive Secretary of the convention <a href="http://unfccc.int/meetings/marrakech_nov_2016/meeting/9567.php">said:</a> </p>
<blockquote>
<p>while the Paris Agreement gave clear pathways and a final destination in respect to decisive action on climate change, many of the details regarding how to move forward as one global community in that common direction still need to be resolved.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The 22nd Conference of the Parties (COP22) taking place in Morocco holds considerable potential to accelerate and amplify the decisions made a year ago in Paris. </p>
<h2>African concerns</h2>
<p>In Cairo earlier this year African ministers of environment and representatives of more than 45 African countries <a href="http://www.greenafricadirectory.org/african-ministers-pledge-accelerated-action-on-sustainable-development-climate-change-and-illegal-trade-in-wildlife/">welcomed</a> the adoption of the Paris Agreement. They emphasised that the agreement accommodated many African concerns and interests. The meeting also stressed the need for African countries to continue engaging actively in climate change negotiations to provide further guidance on the implementation of the Agreement.</p>
<p>One of the most contentious issues on the table will be the progress towards mobilising the $100bn a year <a href="http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/en/one-hundred-billion-dollars/">promised</a> by developed countries to developing economies by 2020.</p>
<p>South Africa has played a leading role in helping to secure climate financing for developing countries. Ensuring meaningful progress on reaching this $100bn target will be a key element of South Africa’s proposed position in Marrakech. </p>
<p>But there is considerable concern about the promised $100bn and where it will come from. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-environment/news/cop22-eu-climate-financing-still-only-theoretical/">Oxfam France recently complained</a> that a recent meeting of European Finance Ministers gave no concrete indication about how they are going to increase the total amount of aid to meet the $100 billion objective. This omission is significant as the EU represents one of the main providers of development funding.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://pibphoto.nic.in/documents/rlink/2015/nov/p2015112901.pdf">paper</a> published by the Indian Ministry of Economic Affairs questioned the findings of an earlier <a href="http://www.oecd.org/env/cc/oecd-cpi-climate-finance-report.htm">Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) report</a> that said developed countries had mobilised $57bn of climate aid in 2013-14. Indian officials suggested that the true amount figure mobilised by rich countries may only be $2.2bn. </p>
<p>The discrepancy is <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-environment/news/cop22-eu-climate-financing-still-only-theoretical/">important</a> because the OECD’s report is accepted by developed countries as the basis of negotiations and evidence that there has been significant progress made towards the $100bn commitment.</p>
<p>In Marrakech <a href="https://www.environment.gov.za/events/department_activities/2016stakeholderconsultation_aheadof_cop22morocco">South Africa’s will press for</a> a clear pathway to realising the $100bn of climate finance per year by 2020. </p>
<h2>Mitigation and adaptation</h2>
<p>Another key element of <a href="https://www.environment.gov.za/events/department_activities/2016stakeholderconsultation_aheadof_cop22morocco">South Africa’s proposed position</a> for the conference is adaptation. The adaptation component of Nationally Determined Commitments is central to the call by a number of developing countries, particularly in Africa, for a balanced treatment of mitigation and adaptation. South Africa believes the agreement should address vulnerability, priorities, plans and actions, implementation and support needs, as well as adaptation efforts for recognition in the case of developing countries.</p>
<p>On mitigation, South Africa wants to see progress on the features and information contained in the Nationally Determined Contributions at COP22. This includes the consideration of common time frames for contributions to allow for effective global stocktaking and ratcheting up of country commitments in future. This is essential if the target of 2°C is to be met.</p>
<p>South Africa has ratified the agreement along with <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9444.php">17</a> other African countries. These are Algeria, Benin, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Cote D'Ivoire, Ghana, Madagascar, Mali, Morocco, Namibia, Niger, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Swaziland and Uganda. Signing the agreement requires countries to adopt it within their own legal systems through ratification, acceptance, approval or accession. </p>
<p>They are among <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9444.php">92 countries</a> to have ratified the terms of the agreement. This breaks all UN records when it comes to how fast an agreement enters into force.</p>
<p>But signatures alone won’t do the trick. Hard decisions must be made, and commitments must be backed up by concrete action. Developing countries like South Africa will be pushing for this to happen in Marrakech.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67992/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Camilla Adelle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Paris climate conference made key plans to avert global warming. The conference in Morocco will hope to put these plans in action.Camilla Adelle, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for the Study of Governance Innovation, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/621252016-07-12T01:45:50Z2016-07-12T01:45:50ZThree reasons to be cheerful about limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees<p>The recent streak of <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/earth-sees-11-record-hot-months-20254">record-breaking temperatures</a> has shown that climate change is not waiting for the world to take decisive action. </p>
<p>But the adoption of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465">Paris Agreement</a> was a clear signal that the world is ready to take climate change seriously. 175 countries signed and 15 of these ratified the climate deal during the <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-climate-deal-signing-ceremony-what-it-means-and-why-it-matters-58105">signing ceremony</a>.</p>
<p>Now there is every indication the agreement could enter into force this year. Many countries, led by the two biggest emitters, China and the United States, have signaled their intent to ratify <a href="http://climateanalytics.org/hot-topics/ratification-tracker">by the end of 2016</a>, leaving just four countries and 1.72% of global emissions needed for it to become official.</p>
<p>There can be no doubt that the window of opportunity to limit global warming to below 1.5°C, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-1-5-became-the-most-important-number-at-the-paris-climate-talks-51960">key target of the 2015 Paris agreement</a>, is closing fast. But there are encouraging signs around the world that this can still be done, even if there is still a very long way to go. Here are three of the most positive developments that will help the world reach its target. </p>
<h2>1. Green energy is getting cheaper</h2>
<p>The costs of climate mitigation have decreased drastically. According to <a href="http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/tech_cost_data.html">NREL’s Transparent Costs Database</a>, wind energy costs in the US are now on a par with coal-fired power.</p>
<p>In May 2016 the price of photovoltaic (PV) energy fell to less than <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/solar-prices-plunge-to-new-lows-as-dubai-auction-nets-under-3ckwh-84894">three US cents a kilowatt</a> at an auction in Dubai. Even in not-so-sunny Germany, solar energy costs have been decreasing steadily: in a <a href="http://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/cln_1432/DE/Sachgebiete/ElektrizitaetundGas/Unternehmen_Institutionen/ErneuerbareEnergien/PV-Freiflaechenanlagen/Gebotstermin_01_12_2015/gebotstermin_01_12_2015_node.html">recent auction</a> in December 2015, prices fell to eight euro cents per kilowatt hour.</p>
<p>We can expect further cost decreases in the coming years. According to a recent <a href="http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_Power_to_Change_2016.pdf">report</a>, by the end of the decade, the cost of onshore wind should decrease by a quarter, off-shore wind by a third and photovoltaics by almost two-thirds. By the mid-2020s, solar PV and onshore wind should cost 5 or 6 US cents per kilowatt hour on average. This is significantly <a href="http://en.openei.org/apps/TCDB/">below</a> the cost of energy from nuclear and coal.</p>
<p>As a result of decreasing costs and additional benefits, investment in renewables exploded in 2015 <a href="http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/lower-oil-prices-but-more-renewables-whats-going-on">despite</a> low oil prices. Meanwhile, renewable energy investment <a href="http://www.irena.org/News/Description.aspx?NType=A&mnu=cat&PriMenuID=16&CatID=84&News_ID=1446">reached</a> a record US$286 billion, generating 152 gigawatts of new capacity. This is more than the combined installed capacity from all sources for the whole <a href="http://www.tsp-data-portal.org/Breakdown-of-Electricity-Capacity-by-Energy-Source#tspQvChart">African continent</a>. </p>
<h2>2. Carbon dioxide emissions have stopped rising</h2>
<p>In 2014 and 2015, the CO₂ emissions from the energy sector stalled despite the global economy growing by 3%. According to the International Energy Agency, in 2014, emissions increased by <a href="https://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2016/march/decoupling-of-global-emissions-and-economic-growth-confirmed.html">less than 0.2%</a> and <a href="https://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2016/march/decoupling-of-global-emissions-and-economic-growth-confirmed.html">by only</a> 0.03% last year. </p>
<p>BP’s estimates for both years were slightly higher, (0.5% in <a href="http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2015/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2015-spencer-dale-presentation.pdf">2014</a> and 0.1% in <a href="http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/co2-emissions.html">2015</a>), but that was a significant change of trend compared to the average annual emission growth of around 2.6% over the past decade.</p>
<p>The major factor in this flattening trend was a fall in emissions of the two biggest emitters: China and the United States. In China, despite an <a href="http://www.greenpeace.org/eastasia/press/releases/climate-energy/2016/Data-shows-Chinas-economy-is-breaking-free-from-coal---Greenpeace/">increase</a> in power consumption by 3%, power generation from fossil fuels decreased by 2%. This <a href="https://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2016/march/decoupling-of-global-emissions-and-economic-growth-confirmed.html">led emissions to fall by 1.5% last year</a>. In the United States, emissions <a href="http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=25852">decreased</a> by 2% despite <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth-annual">healthy economic growth</a>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, developing countries are taking advantage of the significant fall in the costs of renewables. While India’s emissions grew by over 5% last year, the second most populous country in the world has embarked <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/69425">on one of the fastest renewable expansion programmes anywhere on the planet</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/129596/original/image-20160706-12717-1srevrw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/129596/original/image-20160706-12717-1srevrw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/129596/original/image-20160706-12717-1srevrw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/129596/original/image-20160706-12717-1srevrw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/129596/original/image-20160706-12717-1srevrw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/129596/original/image-20160706-12717-1srevrw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/129596/original/image-20160706-12717-1srevrw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/129596/original/image-20160706-12717-1srevrw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">India has embraced renewables on a massive scale.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/brahmakumaris/15206457819/in/photolist-paK58e-pqdcVN-paKVgJ-paKp53-pqdbgA-prXW9Z-prXVS6-paK5mv-psdxKm-nmDz5i-paKpZE-prXWpt-paK48Z-njAHLJ-paKUY9-psdxzw-nmDycr-paKqMw-njAPYH-7bAp5c-7bDUp5-7bDUpo-dT9jcu-7bDP95-fiu974-7915Fu-7bDP8Y-7bAp4T-9bBdFG-njVmBy-njARiM-pqdcd5-paKqh3-njAFZC-8caKj7-7915q3-njT7L2-7bAegP-5ZYPTS-njAH6q-tp53u-nhQE3j-njAHy9-njARqF-9NCzNg-74AkXD-6MJNi3-tp53z-7bDUpu-tp53B">Brahma Kumaris</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At the same time, India is <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/coals-claim-on-indias-energy-future-weakens-further-63636">taking steps to curb coal investments</a>. The choice between renewables and coal in India might be the most important factor when it comes to global efforts to reduce emissions.</p>
<h2>3. Green jobs are good for the economy</h2>
<p>Every major transition is accompanied by fears of job losses. But the positive economic impacts of new technologies are given less attention. In 2014, <a href="http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_RE_Jobs_Annual_Review_2015.pdf">more than 7.7 million people worked in the renewables sector</a>, excluding large hydropower plants. A third of these jobs were in the photovoltaic sector, and an additional one million were employed in wind power – technologies which barely existed two decades ago.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_Measuring-the-Economics_2016.pdf">Another report</a>, shows that doubling the share of renewables in the energy mix by 2030 would triple the number of jobs in the sector and increase global GDP by 1.1%. That’s the equivalent to US $1.3 trillion. In 2016, India plans to roll out 30 million solar irrigation pumps, which would have significant economic and sustainable development benefits for farmers, <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/69425">saving US$3 billion per year on subsidies</a>.</p>
<p>The funds required for this transition could be partly covered by savings from removing fossil fuel subsidies. <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=42940.0">The IMF has found</a> that elimination of post-tax subsidies in 2015 would have increased government revenues by US$2.9 trillion and significantly reduced environmental and social impacts of fossil fuels. </p>
<p>In May 2016, G7 leaders <a href="http://www.mofa.go.jp/files/000160266.pdf">committed</a> to eliminate “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies” by 2025. The G20 is also under pressure to agree on a <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-g20-finance-energy-subsidies-idUSKCN0ZE1XI">timetable for phasing out subsidies</a>.</p>
<h2>Time for leadership</h2>
<p>The ingredients for transforming energy systems and decarbonising the economy are already there. We are deploying more technologies that can peak emissions and accelerate their decrease. </p>
<p>To speed up this transformation, governments must adopt policies that ensure investments in renewable energy are secure and provide clear signposts for everyone participating in the process of decarbonisation. </p>
<p>Political leadership now is fundamental to prevent a slide-back to coal, and to stand up to vested interests, while providing finance and technology to the regions that need it most.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62125/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Hare works for and owns shares in Climate Analytics, a non profit science based institute with headquarters in Berlin. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Climate Analytics have received research grants, Foundation and German Government International Climate Initiative funding for research and activities related to this article.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrzej Ancygier is affiliated with Climate Analytics and Environmental Policy Research Center in Berlin. He is also teaching at the New York University on subjects relating to environmental policy and social movements. </span></em></p>Amid the gloom, here are some hopeful signs that we can meet our climate obligations.Bill Hare, Visiting scientist, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchAndrzej Ancygier, Climate Policy Analyst, Lecturer, New York UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/577982016-04-21T05:53:39Z2016-04-21T05:53:39ZClimate justice and its role in the Paris Agreement<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/119598/original/image-20160421-8010-1d0b7bu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A woman in Burkina Faso collects firewood. Developing nations – and particularly women in these nations – are more vulnerable to climate change, and have less ability to adapt. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/cifor/8621823502/in/photolist-e8T6Km-4edhzm-gsk8Js-f9HqPV-qyKvfj-qsPRWF-6ruaeK-fPxGqz-azidZw-56JUEm-6KG35T-6KG37H-qZ3oGn-e8ST89-j1YajG-2HLEt3-bBCszj-571qJN-6674YT-iZby1G-5mwcC7-oJJd4d-feS7U5-6oRkbN-8vdNkH-j3aT3S-uWruY-jhy7SM-7bAp5c-jzxWJF-qMgb7j-5mrXrM-fUoExs-4DuHgU-qYhQc2-f9HsiX-oExagL-jBmBYy-r5CFnG-56JUsN-5mwgCm-5mwiQw-44izpz-5mrZ88-bBCrvj-hE5oza-jJ3edh-j1PWbR-5msbYz-q2BS8a">CIFOR/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate change is one of the principal threats to quality – and equality – of life on our planet. Beyond environmental problems, climate change threatens food security, water availability, health, housing and <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1865987">self-determination</a>. In essence, it confronts our basic liberties and pursuit of happiness.</p>
<p>But the burden of climate change impacts is not distributed equally. The poor, women, children and <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1865987">indigenous people</a> face disproportionate risks. For people with no safety net, one drought can mean a tumble into <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1005627828199">further hardship</a>. </p>
<p>Those hit hardest by climate change are generally the least responsible for causing it, and have the least capacity to adapt. The idea that vulnerable people, particularly in developed nations, should be fairly considered was enshrined in the <a href="https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf">Paris Agreement</a>, which opens for signing in New York this week. </p>
<p>The preamble notes the importance of “climate justice”. To give effect to this, the agreement emphasises the need to aid developing nations reduce emissions and adapt to climate change. </p>
<p>As an agricultural scientist working in developing countries – and a farmer myself – my work has explored climate justice in terms of the rural poor, a section of our global community hampered by mounting ecological calamity and limited ability to adapt. </p>
<p>Rural climate justice has four key elements. </p>
<h2>Human rights</h2>
<p>The distinctive characteristics of rural areas make them <a href="https://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-Chap9_FINAL.pdf">uniquely vulnerable to climate change impacts</a>. </p>
<p>Rural areas in developing countries are characterised by a high dependence on agricultural and natural resources; burdened by poverty, isolation and marginality; neglected by policymakers; and ultimately have lower indicators of <a href="http://ar5-syr.ipcc.ch/resources/htmlpdf/WGIIAR5-Chap9_FINAL/">human development</a>. </p>
<p>Climate change worsens existing deficiencies, exacerbates inequalities and creates new vulnerabilities. Weather impacts – from subtle shifts and trends to extreme events – increasingly threaten and erode basic needs, capabilities and rights of the rural poor. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.un.org/en/universal-declaration-human-rights/">Universal Declaration of Human Rights</a> states that basic rights and fundamental freedoms are to be enjoyed by all people, no matter who they are or where they live. It recognises that everyone is entitled to the inherent dignity delivered by the foundations of freedom, justice and peace in the world.</p>
<h2>Gender equality</h2>
<p>Men and women are affected differently by climate change due to different social and cultural roles. In many rural communities, <a href="https://www.icrw.org/files/publications/A-Significant-Shift-Women-Food%20Security-and-Agriculture-in-a-Global-Marketplace.pdf">women form the majority of self-employed, small-scale farmers</a>. </p>
<p>Given existing <a href="http://www.un.org/womenwatch/feature/ruralwomen/facts-figures.html">gender inequalities and development gaps</a>, climate change ultimately places a greater burden on women. Climate change also increases vulnerability through <a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/025601/pdf">emigration of men, increasing the workload on women</a>; <a href="ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/i0170e/i0170e00.pdf">cropping and livestock changes that affect gender division of labour</a>; <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-PartA_FINAL.pdf">greater difficulty in accessing water and fuel resources</a>; and <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-PartA_FINAL.pdf">conflict over natural resources</a>.</p>
<h2>Intergenerational equity</h2>
<p>The actions – and inactions – of the present population can jeopardise the rights and well-being of generations yet to come. By delaying climate change action, we risk passing on an irreparably diminished legacy. </p>
<p>The destruction of the environment is a fundamental breach of the <a href="http://www.uow.edu.au/%7Esharonb/STS300/equity/meaning/integen.html">principle of intergenerational equity</a>, as it will cause significant flow-on effects to present and future communities. </p>
<h2>Cultural integrity</h2>
<p>Climate change causes social degradation via community instability and dislocation, which <a href="http://blog.conservancy.bc.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/INTO-THE-VICTORIA-DECLARATION.pdf">ultimately undermines cultures</a>. Migration challenges the identity, sovereignty and heritage of people leaving their homelands, as well as the integrity and continuity of their traditional ways of life. </p>
<p>These dispersed and disassociated peoples can cause cascading effects and <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-009-9419-7">social disturbances</a> to the communities they leave behind and the communities they enter. Migration is an extreme form of adaptation. </p>
<p>Although separating climate migrants from those moving for other reasons is near-impossible, as climate impacts aggravate existing problems for the rural poor, <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-009-9419-7">greater migration</a> from these areas is inevitable.</p>
<h2>Eliminating poverty while fixing climate change</h2>
<p>To deliver climate justice, climate policies need to encompass human rights, gender equality, intergenerational equity and cultural integrity. These policies include mitigation strategies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and adaptation strategies to help cope with unavoidable consequences. </p>
<p>Development is not possible without energy, and sustainable development is not possible without access to clean, affordable and renewable energy. This is an <a href="http://2014.newclimateeconomy.report/energy/">opportunity for developing countries</a> to avoid the dependence on fossil fuels seen in today’s developed world.</p>
<p>As climate change and a burgeoning global population increase pressure upon planetary boundaries, agricultural scientists are seeking ways to better manage natural resources and help farmers adapt to current and future climate. </p>
<p>Work with the rural poor that promotes social progress and better standards of life can ultimately provide flexibility and a buffer to adversities, and enable farmers to make well-informed decisions.</p>
<p>For communities most at risk, climate change is disrupting lives, work, food security and the places they call home. Only with the appropriate strategies and commitment to climate justice will the future for all people be brighter.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/57798/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anika Molesworth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Climate justice is becoming an increasingly important part of climate action.Anika Molesworth, PhD Candidate, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/569342016-03-31T04:24:52Z2016-03-31T04:24:52ZParis set a benchmark in the battle against climate change. What now?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/116634/original/image-20160329-13698-s39sw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africa has a long way to go to make a fair contribution to the global goals set out under the Paris Agreement.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This article is a foundation essay. They are longer than usual and take a wider look at a key issue affecting society.</em> </p>
<p>It’s been a few months since the <a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf">Paris Agreement</a> wrapped up. On April 22, it will be signed by numerous heads of state. The agreement sets crucial goals to limit global temperature increases, and specific goals in three areas – mitigation, adaptation and finance. </p>
<p>Many expected the conference to be a talk shop with not many effective results. Obviously it’s too early for any tangible results to be seen – but the agreement has many positive points.</p>
<p>The long-term goal of limiting temperature increases to 2°C – or a second, more ambitious target of 1.5°C – guides the agreement. Mitigation includes a long-term goal – early peaking, balancing emissions and sinks. The accompanying decision indicates that emissions need to be reduced from 55 gigatonnes (Gt) to 40Gt in 2030, a massive gap of 15Gt. </p>
<p>A new global adaptation goal aims to increase countries’ adaptive capacity and resilience. There are also aims to achieve a finance increase to US$100 billion per year post 2020. </p>
<p>These goals are clearly put in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication.</p>
<h2>Why what happened in Paris is different</h2>
<p>The Paris Agreement fulfilled the promise, from the 2011 Durban Climate Change Conference, of a regime applicable to all under the <a href="http://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/application/pdf/conveng.pdf">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a>. The world has finally moved beyond a divide into two groups, the developed and developing countries. Bitter battles were often fought along these lines. Paris reflects differentiation, acknowledging that the world is not the same. But it acknowledges the need to move beyond old divisions and to take action. It expresses differences more subtly, notably on mitigation and finance.</p>
<p>The Paris Agreement encodes a bottom-up approach. If the <a href="http://unfccc.int/essential_background/kyoto_protocol/items/1678.php">Kyoto Protocol’s</a> targets were top-down, a defining feature of the Paris Agreement is that <a href="http://www.mapsprogramme.org/wp-content/uploads/Paper_Thoughts-choice-of-INDC.pdf">nationally determined contributions</a> will add up to the global response. Proposals to take global emissions budgets and divide them across countries were rejected. Adaptation, loss and damage are much more prominent in the Paris Agreement than in previous climate agreements.</p>
<p>Countries’ adaptation plans are mandatory, with a clear emphasis on implementation. Countries should regularly communicate to the international community what they are doing on adaptation, in different forms. Prior to Paris, 88% of the <a href="http://www.wri.org/indc-definition">Intended Nationally Determined Contributions</a> included adaptation. The US and EU – with 28 member states – submitted adaptation undertakings. Together, plans and communications will significantly strengthen the information base on adaptation.</p>
<p>Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) on mitigation are obligations of conduct that require domestic measures to achieve objectives. They will be strongly reviewed. Reporting and review is strengthened at individual country level, and the global stock-take will inform further mitigation targets. Longer-term strategies from all parties are encouraged.</p>
<p>The Paris Agreement says all countries should strive to formulate long-term low greenhouse gas emission strategies. South Africa has a peak, plateau and decline trajectory range in its national policy, and put forward mitigation strategies for 2025 and 2030 in Paris. In the next round, it will be expected to include longer-term goals, even if aspirational, for 2050.</p>
<p>A global stock-take will consider mitigation, adaptation and support every five years, based on equity and science, to inform what more needs to be done.</p>
<p>Increasing ambition is crucial because the sum of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions is insufficient to keep us on track for the 2°C limit. The outcome of the stock-take will inform countries’ next actions, support and international co-operation. This global review will consider the collective effort, in the light of equity and science – that is, are we all doing enough, and are our efforts shared fairly?</p>
<p>Transparency is perhaps the strongest feature of the Paris Agreement. The framework applies transparency to both action and support, with the latter needing work. Common modalities will allow flexibility for those developing countries that have less capability to improve reporting and review over time.</p>
<p>The Paris Agreement is a treaty in all but name; it is a legally binding agreement. The nature of obligations within the treaty differ – some are binding and others not. </p>
<p>It is mandatory for each country to communicate mitigation NDCs every five years and to pursue domestic measures to achieve the NDC objectives. Individual financial contributions by developed countries are not binding. Delivering on promises of finance and scaling up overall investment flows will be closely watched – particularly by those who need support. A mandatory review of obligations is expected to strengthen action over time, setting out obligations of conduct and achieving objectives in the case of mitigation. Everyone is expected to do better in each round – what is called “progression”.</p>
<p>It is important to bring more actors into more creative spaces, ensuring a catalytic function for the Convention and perhaps changing it internally. Paris makes further processes complementary to text-based negotiations. It links multiple actors in more creative spaces. This means the agreement might enable action at national level, with many other actors, and allow for international cooperation on cleaner energy.</p>
<h2>What might the agreement mean for South Africa?</h2>
<p>The Paris Agreement is characterised by much broader participation than the Kyoto Protocol was. Much more will be required for South Africa, together with all other countries, to regularly communicate contributions. These contributions will be nationally determined. But they will be subject to strong international review at the individual and collective level. This applies across mitigation, adaptation and support, in slightly different ways.</p>
<p>On mitigation, the Paris Agreement has individual mitigation obligations. The nationally determined mitigation contributions are obligations of conduct. South Africa must prepare and communicate successive mitigation contributions and is obliged to pursue domestic measures to achieve these objectives.</p>
<p>The objective of the mitigation part of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions submitted prior to Paris was built around the peak, plateau and decline emissions trajectory range. The country will have to show what measures – carbon tax, carbon budgets, low-emissions electricity plan, renewable programme, transport policies and others – it will pursue to achieve peak, plateau and decline.</p>
<p>This information will be reported and reviewed every two and five years. South Africa submitted its first biennial update report in 2014, and it will submit another in 2016. From 2020, the scope will be broader, including adaptation as an option and mandatory reporting on support received.</p>
<p>On mitigation, national inventory reports are required every two years, as is tracking of progress in implementing and achieving mitigation contributions. Every five years, information on adaptation, mitigation and support will be reviewed collectively in a global stock-take. South Africa must take into account what all countries are doing together, and set more ambitious national contributions.</p>
<p>One means of increasing ambition will be to look beyond what national governments can do on their own. Cities are at the front-lines of adaptation and mitigation, businesses have much to contribute and civil society makes a crucial contribution.</p>
<p>Paris sent clear policy signals for more renewable energy and less use of fossil fuels. Much of the focus on renewables was in India, China and Brazil. But a preamble paragraph acknowledges the importance of universal access to sustainable energy, in Africa in particular, through the enhanced deployment of renewable energy.</p>
<p>With South Africa’s connections to the three countries mentioned above, the renewable plans and support for an <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/clean-energy/advancing-of-africa-renewable-energy-initiative/">African Renewable Energy Initiative </a> from African heads of state and partner countries, its prospects of playing a key role in the expansion of renewables on the continent seem bright.</p>
<p>We will only fully appreciate what the Paris Agreement means for the country in the coming months and years. But already we know enough to acknowledge that Paris, while far from perfect, marked an important and positive change towards climate action. Paris moved decisively into a world where all countries, developed or developing, take climate action.</p>
<p>But a tough road lies ahead. South Africa will have to redouble its efforts to implement its national climate policy, and to make a fair contribution to the global goals set out under the Paris Agreement.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56934/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Harald Winkler works for the Energy Research Centre(<a href="http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/">http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/</a>) or ERC, at the University of Cape Town (UCT). He has been a member of the SA delegation to the climate negotiations under the UNFCCC from 2003 to 2015. ERC has in the past received funding from the Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) for analytical support. This article is written in his personal capacity, does not represent the views of ERC, UCT or DEA and no benefit will accrue to any organisation.</span></em></p>The Paris Agreement marks an important step towards climate change mitigation – one in which developed and developing countries alike take action.Harald Winkler, Professor and Director of the Energy Research Centre, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/563432016-03-16T19:16:19Z2016-03-16T19:16:19ZMary Robinson: ‘climate justice’ must play a key role in the Paris Agreement<p><em>Mary Robinson, the first female president of Ireland, gave a speech in Melbourne on March 15. Robinson, who served between 1990 and 1997, has since gone on to play an active role in international climate negotiations.</em></p>
<p><em>As special envoy on climate change to the UN Secretary-General, Robinson negotiated with world leaders ahead of the successful Paris climate summit in December 2015.</em> </p>
<p><em>Through her work on climate change Robinson is an active proponent of “climate justice”, which advocates sharing the burden of mitigating and adapting to climate change between all parts of society, and particularly between developed and developing nations.</em> </p>
<p><em>In Melbourne she addressed the growing role of climate justice in climate talks and in bringing the Paris Agreement into force. The following is a summary of Robinson’s key points.</em></p>
<h2>Climate justice no longer just for NGOs</h2>
<p>In 2011 in Durban, South Africa, a new negotiating group was established to begin deliberations on a climate agreement to begin after 2020. </p>
<p>At that time, “climate justice” sat squarely in the remit of non-governmental organisations but was not used in official discussions. </p>
<p>Four years later, at the Paris climate conference, the call for climate justice was brought inside the walls of the negotiations. It is even included in the preamble to <a href="https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf">the official Paris Agreement</a>. </p>
<p>As Robinson put it: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>climate justice is no longer a narrative only used by civil society. It is now part of the lexicon of at least 24 world leaders, eight business organisations and 27 countries.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>According to the <a href="http://www.mrfcj.org/">Mary Robinson Foundation</a>, climate justice “links human rights and development to achieve a human-centred approach” to climate change action. </p>
<p>It is the concept that fairness must be an integral and driving element of climate decision-making.</p>
<h2>Is climate justice reflected in the Paris Agreement?</h2>
<p>A commonly cited criticism of the Paris Agreement is that it relies on the use of under-developed <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-need-to-get-serious-about-negative-emissions-technology-fast-52549">negative emissions technologies</a> and thus may be unrealistically ambitious. </p>
<p>However, elements of the Paris Agreement are encouraging.</p>
<p>On diplomacy, Robinson highlighted the important work that many and diverse actors undertook in the lead-up to the Paris conference. She also saluted the efforts of French diplomacy, which avoided diluting the participation of poorer countries. </p>
<p>She heralded the creation of a coalition that managed to secure a tightened global warming target of 1.5°C, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-matter-of-degrees-why-2c-warming-is-officially-unsafe-42308">critical issue for many low-lying countries</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Presidents and senior ministers from the small island states could not come back from Paris without [an agreement featuring a target of] 1.5°C, because they would be committing national suicide.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>On science, Robinson conceded that the Paris Agreement does not deliver what the science demands. If all emissions reduction efforts pledged by all nations are fully implemented, the world is still on track for more than 2°C. </p>
<p>However, she stressed that the agreement is informed by the science and will be reviewed and upgraded in response to science, referring to the legally binding requirement that all countries periodically review and revise their pledges — there can be no backsliding.</p>
<p>On law, Robinson emphasised the need for transparency and accountability to enable oversight by government, civil society and citizens. What Paris has delivered is a legally binding pathway, but this is only part of the puzzle. National legislation will be required to ensure that the agreement is actually implemented. </p>
<p>According to <a href="http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Global_climate_legislation_study_20151.pdf">a study by the Grantham Institute</a>, this is already in train. In the 99 countries surveyed in the study, there were 54 national laws and policies directly related to climate change mitigation and adaptation in 1997. By 2009 that number had climbed to 426. By 2014, it had almost doubled to 804.</p>
<h2>Building an agenda through climate justice</h2>
<p>However, climate laws and policies have not always been positively linked to human rights. In many cases, climate policies have been harmful to local communities. For example, corn ethanol policies have in the past driven up food prices in Mexico and other parts of Central America. </p>
<p>For climate justice to inform how the Paris Agreement is implemented there needs to be a special focus on the Sustainable Development Goals and the right to development for all countries. According to <a href="http://www.mrfcj.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/2015-02-05-Zero-Carbon-Zero-Poverty-the-Climate-Justice-Way.pdf">research from the Mary Robinson Foundation</a>, zero carbon and zero poverty are complementary goals. </p>
<p>Developing countries are where much climate action needs to take place, but for low-carbon transformation these countries need access to finance:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It is our responsibility but it is also in our collective self-interest to help developing countries transition. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>There is also a need for access to information and participation. According to Robinson, a participatory approach shouldn’t be just because it’s right but because it works. </p>
<p>The Paris climate talks may have been such a success because there was an inclusive space for all voices to be heard. This needs to happen at all levels, internationally, nationally and sub-nationally. She cited the now non-profit Australian Climate Council (formerly the government-initiated Climate Commission) as a model for this sort of participation. </p>
<h2>Tasks for Australia</h2>
<p>According to Robinson, Australians have some homework to do after the Paris conference.</p>
<p>The first is to get ourselves into a 1.5°C mindset. We need a research agenda that explores what it means to limit warming to 1.5°C. Australia, like many developed countries, still has a 2°C mindset.</p>
<p>The second is to begin shaping the rules. Legal scholars need to determine how we integrate transparency, accountability and justice into the rules of law. </p>
<p>The third is to ensure that Australia ratifies the Paris Agreement on April 22 in New York. The treaty does not come into force until 30 days after it has been ratified by at least 55 countries representing at least 55% of global emissions. </p>
<p>The fourth is to accelerate a transition to renewable energy. </p>
<p>The fifth and final task is to attend to a marriage between the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals. Together these agreements forge a pathway to 2030 and beyond.</p>
<p>According to Robinson:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Nobody is pretending that the job to 2050 will be easy but Australia is a country with a can-do attitude; a country where people get involved and where communities thrive. You, in Australia, are lucky. You could be world leaders in emissions reduction because you have the benefits of renewable energy technology.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><em>Mary Robinson spoke at the <a href="http://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/oration2016">inaugural Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute (MSSI) address</a> on March 15, 2016.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56343/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anita Talberg receives an Australian Postgraduate Award PhD scholarship</span></em></p>The burden of mitigating and adapting to climate change must be shared between all parts of society.Dr Anita Talberg, PhD student in the Australian-German Climate and Energy College, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/544422016-02-11T10:01:21Z2016-02-11T10:01:21ZWhy we won’t be able to feed the world without GM<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110854/original/image-20160209-12606-13ekzgp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">We're talking about a lot of seeds</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&autocomplete_id=&searchterm=feed%20the%20world&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=44069140">Great Divide Photography</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One thing I remember vividly from my childhood is The Day of the Triffids. In John Wyndham’s apocalyptic novel, the triffids were carnivorous plants that didn’t need roots and had developed three legs to allow them to find prey (whose nitrogen they fed on instead). They were originally bred by humans to provide high-quality vegetable oil, since the growing population’s demand for food was outstripping supply. Initially contained on farms, the triffids escaped following an “extreme celestial event” and began to terrorise the human population. </p>
<p>Replace “breeding” with “genetic modification” and you have the contemporary cautionary tale about the threat of “Frankenfoods” to human health and the environment. But this raises another question – if we ignore their potential, what does it mean for human food requirements in the future?</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110860/original/image-20160209-12610-wmrcxz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110860/original/image-20160209-12610-wmrcxz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110860/original/image-20160209-12610-wmrcxz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=879&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110860/original/image-20160209-12610-wmrcxz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=879&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110860/original/image-20160209-12610-wmrcxz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=879&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110860/original/image-20160209-12610-wmrcxz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1105&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110860/original/image-20160209-12610-wmrcxz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1105&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110860/original/image-20160209-12610-wmrcxz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1105&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Leaf grief.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Day of the Triffids was first published in 1951, right at the start of the “<a href="http://geography.about.com/od/globalproblemsandissues/a/greenrevolution.htm">green revolution</a>”. The latest thing was breeding new varieties of cereal which were high-yielding. Together with other newly developed technologies including machinery – tractors and irrigation pumps – and synthetic inputs like pesticides and fertilisers, this <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11584298">helped double</a> major commodity crop production between 1960 and 2000 to 2 billion tonnes worldwide, rebutting <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/11374623">Malthusian</a> fears about the world failing to feed its growing population. </p>
<p>In the last decade, the rosy glow has worn off a little. Growth in world crop yields <a href="http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms2296">has declined</a> and is even stagnating, <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/333/6042/616">perhaps due to</a> climate change – especially stress from heat and drought. Yields <a href="http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/ncomms3918">are no longer</a> increasing fast enough to keep pace with projected demand. If current trends continue, <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0066428">we’ll need to</a> expand our crop land by 42% by 2050. As a consequence, forests will be lost. Along with associated costs from requiring more water, plus the effects on biodiversity, this <a href="http://www.fcrn.org.uk/research-library/importance-food-demand-management-climate-mitigation">will increase</a> agriculture’s greenhouse-gas emissions significantly. In total, agri-food <a href="http://www.fcrn.org.uk/research-library/importance-food-demand-management-climate-mitigation">is set to</a> emit enough greenhouse gases to surpass the entirety of the 1.5°C temperature-rise target <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/unfccc-newsroom/finale-cop21/">called for in Paris</a> for 2050. </p>
<h2>Supply …</h2>
<p>There are basically two options: we can increase yields to meet demand without expanding area, and/or we can reduce demand enough to allow supply to catch up. Increasing supply in a sustainable way is perfectly possible. Some of this is about increasing efficiency through better farming, such as using <a href="https://soilsmatter.wordpress.com/2015/02/27/what-is-precision-agriculture-and-why-is-it-important/">precision agriculture</a> to target the right amounts of fertilisers and pesticides to the right places. </p>
<p>Some of it is about changing land management to get the most out of agricultural land while maintaining ecosystem services, for example by managing the edges of fields as buffer strips to prevent chemicals being washed away by heavy rains; and as <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1755-263X.2008.00004.x/full">places with lots of wild flowers</a> where bees can thrive to improve crop pollination. And some of it is about developing new animal and plant varieties that are more efficient, more productive or better able to cope with the changing environment.</p>
<p>New varieties can come about from various means. Conventional breeding continues to be important. But modern laboratories have given us more strings to our bow. Not all biotechnological approaches are genetic modification in the legal sense. Using chemicals or X-rays to create genetic variation has <a href="https://www.geneticliteracyproject.org/2015/02/05/pasta-ruby-grapefruits-why-organic-devotees-love-foods-mutated-by-radiation-and-chemicals/">long been</a> a mainstay of “conventional breeding”, for example. Other techniques – such as <a href="http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2014/crispr-a-game-changing-genetic-engineering-technique/">CRISPR</a> – are arguably post-GM, in that they can involve the clinical editing of single genes without leaving a signature of foreign DNA. CRISPR <a href="https://www.jic.ac.uk/news/2015/11/crispr-crop-genes-no-transgenes/#">can produce</a> identical plants to those produced conventionally, but much faster. Yet for some people, biotechnological crop or livestock modification conjures up “triffidophobia”. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110863/original/image-20160209-12571-10asr0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110863/original/image-20160209-12571-10asr0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110863/original/image-20160209-12571-10asr0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110863/original/image-20160209-12571-10asr0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110863/original/image-20160209-12571-10asr0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110863/original/image-20160209-12571-10asr0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110863/original/image-20160209-12571-10asr0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110863/original/image-20160209-12571-10asr0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Chop chop.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&autocomplete_id=&search_tracking_id=Pn9wL9qjtP2ie2RbShav7A&searchterm=CRISPR&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=353873630">Mopic</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Just how wary should we be about new technologies? Conventional breeding has served us well, but can’t keep up with demand or the speed with which the weather is changing. Any change in farming practice has associated risks that need to be assessed and managed, but these also need to be weighed against the risks of doing nothing. To increase food supply to meet projected demand, farming in the same way as we do now, the emissions from deforestation and other changes will <a href="http://www.fcrn.org.uk/research-library/importance-food-demand-management-climate-mitigation">lock us into</a> a world of 4-5°C of climate change. Together with other significant costs to the environment and human health and well-being, that’s probably a greater risk than the alternative. </p>
<p>It is difficult to guess how much biotechnological approaches will contribute to the solution, though. We still need to develop precision agriculture and smarter land use. And even if the gaps between current and required yields are halved – a big ask across the world – we’ll still need more land to meet demand. This would still impact on the likes of our water supply <a href="http://www.fcrn.org.uk/research-library/importance-food-demand-management-climate-mitigation">and create</a> enough warming to challenge the Paris targets. </p>
<h2>… or demand?</h2>
<p>This is where the second option comes in – decreasing demand. <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-014-1104-5">Globally</a>, we feed livestock about a third of all the calories we grow – enough to feed all the people in Asia. About a third of the food we grow is also lost or wasted. And across the world, many people overeat enough to make themselves ill through obesity, diabetes and so on. If we made wiser purchasing and consumption decisions, potentially we could halve current global demand for food. That would create space for sustainably feeding the growing population as well as growing biofuels and carbon storage in new forests.</p>
<p>For me, the message is clear. We are unsustainably using the planet’s resources to produce the food we demand, and there will be very negative results if we continue on the same trajectory. New technology can help, but needs assessed as it is developed. Old technology still has a role; as does reducing waste, over-consumption and meat-heavy diets. There is no simple answer but there is a toolbox, and we’ll need every tool at our disposal to address the challenge we created. Our technology won’t produce The Day of the Triffids, but without it, we may create a future Apocalypse Now.</p>
<p><em>For more coverage of the debate around GM crops, <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/gm-food">click here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54442/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Benton receives funding from NERC, BBSRC, ESPA and the EU. He is also the Champion of the UK's Global Food Security programme. </span></em></p>The concerns about genetically modified foods are well known. But when we look at population and climate projections, what happens if we don’t use them to increase our food supply?Tim Benton, Professor of Population Ecology, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/534522016-01-22T04:05:24Z2016-01-22T04:05:24ZA sunshade to help southern Africa cope with climate change?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108715/original/image-20160120-26101-p53v8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">shutterstock</span> </figcaption></figure><p><em>This article is a foundation essay. These are longer than usual and take a wider look at a key issue affecting society.</em></p>
<p>Climate change is a global problem. But local actions are needed to reduce its impact. Specifically, southern African countries must consider what they can do to protect their interests in the face of growing threats to economies and welfare.</p>
<p>So consider the idea of having a giant sunshade over southern Africa. During the recent heatwave, it would have been wonderful. It could have saved lives and there would have been less evaporation from dams, reducing the impact of the current drought. Crops and livestock would have fared better.</p>
<p>Putting up a global sunshade is feasible, not fanciful. It has already been shown to be an option for <a href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/6373/2013/acp-13-6373-2013.pdf">California</a>. But it is rarely talked about in polite scientific or policy conversation. This is because it would be <a href="http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0021/002144/214496e.pdf">geoengineering</a>, a human intervention to alter the climate. Many people consider this to be a step too far. But this must change, not least because human action is already causing the climate to change.</p>
<h2>Why geoengineering is a difficult subject</h2>
<p>Discussion about geoengineering has been muted because scientists are uncomfortable about accepting second class solutions. They fear that any effort to moderate the impact of additional C02 in the atmosphere will reduce the pressure for action on the cause of the <a href="http://www.ucar.edu/governance/meetings/oct08/followup/head_and_chairs/michael_maccracken.pdf">problem</a>. </p>
<p>But Africa must look hard at uncomfortable options or face being left behind by other countries with fewer scruples. Specifically, it is important to consider how regional geoengineering initiatives could help to protect southern Africa from some of the more damaging impacts of climate change.</p>
<p>From the outcome of the COP21 meeting in Paris <a href="https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf">last year</a>, two key points <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e51d6880-a262-11e5-8d70-42b68cfae6e4.html#axzz3xinGZfa6">stand out</a>:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>All countries made a commitment to take action on climate change to avert a global disaster. This was real progress.</p></li>
<li><p>But the practical commitments they made were nowhere near radical enough to achieve the goal of reducing global warming quickly enough.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>The resulting slow progress means that the southern African region could face prolonged hardship. The consensus is that life under climate change will be hotter, and therefore drier, since evaporation and aridity increases with <a href="http://www.one.org/international/blog/how-climate-change-will-affect-african-farmers/">temperature</a>.</p>
<h2>Some countries stand to gain, some to lose</h2>
<p>Southern Africa needs to take action as a region. Not all regions are affected equally by climate change.</p>
<p>Some countries – Canada and Russia specifically – actually stand to gain from a warmer globe. Millions of hectares of land that is currently frozen will become available for agriculture. This will occur just as food problems arise <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/environment/integration/research/newsalert/pdf/climate_change_to_shift_global_spread_quality_agricultural_land_403na1_en.pdf">elsewhere</a>.</p>
<p>Other countries – think Saudi Arabia – would like to put off action as long as possible. This will enable them to use their oil revenues to fund the adaptation that they will need. Coal exporting countries like Australia and South Africa have similar interests.</p>
<p>Yet another group of countries would like adaptation to move faster. This is not always because they are concerned about the impact of climate change. Many in Europe believe that there is money to be made from <a href="http://www.ewea.org/news/detail/2015/12/03/ambitious-un-climate-deal-could-be-investment-opportunity-for-european-wind-industry/">renewable energy</a>. And they would like everyone to adopt it as fast as possible so that they can make more windmills, install more solar panels and sell more power management solutions.</p>
<p>So regional interests have a strong influence on the approach to climate change. And I contend that South Africa, together with its neighbours, is not doing enough to consider specific regional interests and options. That opinion is based on more than a decade’s engagement on climate issues at the United Nation’s Commission on Sustainable Development, two COPs, the World Economic Forum and South Africa’s National Planning Commission as well as my work on southern Africa’s water resources.</p>
<p>The thinking – or rather the lack of it – about geoengineering is one example of regional interests.</p>
<h2>Creating shade</h2>
<p>Some geoengineering interventions will only work on a global scale. Proposals to suck carbon dioxide out of the <a href="http://www.icevirtuallibrary.com/doi/abs/10.1680/ensu.12.00022">atmosphere</a> are one example. But other interventions work more locally.</p>
<p>It has long been known that the presence of some chemicals in the atmosphere can shield the earth from the heating effects of the sun. This has been demonstrated on numerous occasions when, after erupting volcanoes spewed sulphurous gases and ash, the earth cooled noticeably for a couple of years. The most famous case is perhaps the eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia in <a href="http://www.wunderground.com/climate/volcanoes.asp">1815</a>. This led to 1816 being known as the “year without a summer”.</p>
<p>The science to use this effect for geoengineering is now well documented. A leading mind on this is professor Paul Crutzen, who won the Nobel Prize for working out how to fix another global atmospheric problem – the ozone <a href="http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/chemistry/laureates/1995/">hole</a>.</p>
<p>If sulphur dioxide (SO2) is used, the amount required for a worldwide solar sunshade could be dosed into the atmosphere using existing passenger aircraft. The payload would be the equivalent of two economy class seats on every flight. Crutzen estimated the cost at between $25 and $50 <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-006-9101-y">per developed world citizen</a>. It would be more efficient to dose at higher altitudes but the point is that this is already a feasible option.</p>
<p>What needs to be considered is whether this technology could be used to provide local sunshades. These would not help places threatened by rising sea levels which needs warming to be stopped at a global level. But it might well help to reduce the impact of higher temperatures on local agriculture and water resources.</p>
<p>Potential risks need to be considered. The amounts of SO2 needed are tiny compared to what is generated, more harmfully, by industry and natural sources. But it would be desirable to design and use more benign materials. Fortunately, the science of chemistry is increasingly able to design materials with <a href="http://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2015-12-05/new-materials-for-manufacturing">very specific properties</a>. Doing this to mitigate climate change needs to become a research priority.</p>
<p>To make such interventions practical, the region needs local science, focused on meeting local needs. And Western scientists have been reluctant to help develop this capacity. I have found British scientists working on climate change very helpful on many other subjects, but not on this regional interventions. And South Africa’s scientists are too often guided by global thinking rather than local challenges and opportunities.</p>
<p>Finally, there is the question of implementation. Do we have the means to do the job? Since there would almost certainly be international opposition to regional geoengineering, we would need regional capacity for intervention. Could this be a new role for embattled SAA? It would be helpful to have a national airline to enable us to take a regional decision to protect regional interests.</p>
<p>Such a move could buy time while the underlying problem is properly addressed. Critics who argue that this would simply encourage further delay miss the point. The delays are happening and the consequences need to be addressed. Beyond that, the mere threat of regional geoengineering action could accelerate action to address the underlying causes more effectively.</p>
<p>At the least, the southern African region if not the continent as a whole must discuss regional options. And regional geoengineering will have to be on the agenda. Otherwise Africa will once again find itself at the back of the queue, carrying the burden and the costs while those responsible for our problems profit from our passivity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/53452/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Muller has received research funding from the Water Research Commission and a visiting scholarship from the University of Manchester as well as advisory fees from a wide range of institutions including the African Development Bank, the World Bank, the OECD, the Global Water Partnership, the DBSA and government departments. He also chaired the World Economic Forum's Water Agenda Council (2013-2014).</span></em></p>Geoengineering could help regions affected by climate change deal with the problem.Mike Muller, Visiting Adjunct Professor, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/524312015-12-16T19:29:00Z2015-12-16T19:29:00ZNo climate policy is perfect: here’s how to choose the best one<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106235/original/image-20151216-25630-7jai62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">What should we do about carbon? </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Coal image from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Australian government has pledged to the global community to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions by <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-post-2020-climate-target-not-enough-to-stop-2c-warming-experts-45879">26-28% below 2005 levels</a> by 2030. The <a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09.pdf">Paris Agreement</a> suggests that this and other countries’ pledges will need to be strengthened if average global temperature increases are to be kept below 2°C. </p>
<p>In 2016, likely an election year, attention must and will turn to how these pledges will be kept.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/publications/factsheet-emissions-projections-2015-16">Recent projections</a> from the Australian government indicate that we are on track to meet the 2020 target - a reduction of 5% below 2000 levels. The current government’s climate change policies are contributing to this outcome. </p>
<p>But they will need to be re-engineered to meet the 2030 target. The Labor Party is consulting on a 2030 target of <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-pledges-45-emissions-cuts-by-2030-but-the-science-says-more-is-needed-51386">45% reductions</a> and will need to develop a policy that reflects its commitment to emissions trading and an aspiration of 50% renewable electricity.</p>
<p>Bipartisan support is essential for whatever mechanisms are adopted. Companies will not make long-term investments to reduce their emissions unless they are confident that policies are stable. To date, they have been anything but.</p>
<h2>Choosing a good climate policy</h2>
<p>The challenge for policymakers across the political spectrum is to construct a credible emissions reduction policy framework that satisfies multiple, sometimes conflicting, criteria. </p>
<p>A policy that may be ideal from a theoretical economic perspective may be too complex to secure political or community support. The criteria are:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>credibility: ability to meet current and future targets</p></li>
<li><p>political viability: capacity to evolve from current policy settings and achieve bipartisan support</p></li>
<li><p>flexibility: ability to adjust for changes in targets, political and technological developments</p></li>
<li><p>adaptability: potential to move towards an economy-wide market-based scheme</p></li>
<li><p>public acceptability: ability to be understood and accepted by the community</p></li>
<li><p>low cost.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>In a Grattan Institute <a href="http://grattan.edu.au/report/post-paris-australias-climate-policy-options/">working paper</a> published this week we assess six policy alternatives that could do the job. These are cap and trade emissions trading, carbon taxation, intensity baseline emissions trading, emissions purchasing, regulation, and tradeable green certificates. None of the plausible policies fulfils all of the criteria.</p>
<h2>The who’s who of climate policy</h2>
<p>A <strong>cap and trade scheme</strong> meets many of the criteria. In a cap and trade scheme, the government releases a “capped” number of permits which carbon emitters must purchase. Demand for the permits drives the price of carbon. It is relatively easy to link a cap with an emissions reduction target and then expand in the future. Economists generally favour this approach to deliver lowest cost reductions. </p>
<p>However, it is complex to design and this creates challenges in terms of political support and public acceptance, as happened in the US in 2009 and in Australia with Kevin Rudd’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme in 2008-9.</p>
<p>A <strong>carbon tax</strong> has the advantage of simplicity with a clear, explicit price on emissions, and is likely to drive low cost emissions reduction. </p>
<p>However, it can be difficult to set the tax level to meet a particular emissions target, and to establish a way of reviewing the price. And carbon taxes, like cap and trade schemes, impose costs on businesses that are passed on to consumers through higher prices. </p>
<p>The likely fatal flaw with a <a href="https://theconversation.com/carbon-tax-axed-how-it-affects-you-australia-and-our-emissions-28895">carbon tax</a> is simply its name. This was illustrated starkly in 2013 when the Labor government’s fixed price on carbon provided a winning strategy for opposition leader Tony Abbott. He successfully labelled it as a carbon tax thereby severely damaging Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s credibility.</p>
<p><strong>Intensity baseline and credit schemes</strong>, like cap and trade and carbon taxes, have the advantage of delivering low cost emissions reduction through a market mechanism but with less impact on prices. Intensity baseline and credit schemes set a limit (the “baseline”) on the carbon emissions per unit of output, such as tonnes per megawatt hour of electricity. Carbon emitters must pay for carbon produced above the baseline. </p>
<p>This type of policy was successfully applied in New South Wales from 2003 to 2012. It could be effective in the electricity sector, but is harder to extend into sectors with more uniform emissions intensity.</p>
<p>The Federal Government has successfully applied an <strong>emissions purchasing scheme</strong>, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-does-todays-direct-action-reverse-auction-work-40152">Emissions Reduction Fund</a>, to deliver cut emissions by 100 million tonnes at a cost of around A$13 per tonne. Funding from the government’s budget avoids direct price effects, but more stringent targets would require much bigger budget allocations, and this would likely become problematic.</p>
<p>Governments can <strong>directly regulate</strong> emissions reductions, an approach that the US has taken. Regulation can be effective in specific sectors such as applying emissions standards to vehicles, but becomes onerous if used as an economy-wide policy. The cost of reducing emissions through regulation is also likely to be higher than under market mechanisms.</p>
<p>Finally, <strong>tradeable green certificate</strong> schemes have been applied to the electricity sector in the UK and many US states. In Australia, the Renewable Energy Target has delivered emissions reductions in, the absence of a carbon price, at a moderate cost of around A$40 per tonne. However it doesn’t work as a broader policy.</p>
<p>The challenge to policy makers is significant and will be highly politicised. The task is to find solutions to the limitations of an individual policy, or to combine policies that collectively satisfy the criteria.</p>
<p>Our report in 2016 will contribute to this search. For example, it may be possible to build an emissions trading scheme on the core of the current government’s policies to meet the central principles of both the government and the Labor Party. There is much at stake.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/52431/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Through his superannuation fund, Tony Wood owns shares in energy and resources companies that could benefit from changes in relevant government policies. </span></em></p>Things we know: we need a bigger climate target. Thing we don’t: how to reach it.Tony Wood, Program Director, Energy, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/523412015-12-15T11:43:48Z2015-12-15T11:43:48ZTwo crucial omissions that could jeopardise Paris climate deal<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106027/original/image-20151215-23202-h5a4id.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Paris <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-paris-climate-deal-52256">climate deal</a> shows that the international community finally gets the science. Our leaders have publicly committed to the idea that we need to decarbonise our energy supplies and undertake a radical transformation of the global economy. But the challenge that Paris has presented the world with is how to convert that rhetoric into the laws and regulations needed to make the goal of the agreement a reality. The <a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09.pdf">final text</a> provides little detail on implementation, just a complex web of pledges with no certainty of when or if they will be fulfilled.</p>
<p>One of the biggest gaps between the reality of our climate situation and the text of the Paris Agreement is in the absence of two sectors that are major contributors to the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. Shipping and aviation were referred to in the world’s previous climate change deal, <a href="https://www.unfccc.int/methods/emissions_from_intl_transport/items/1057.php">the Kyoto Protocol</a>, and were still referred to in the draft of the Paris Agreement until just a few days before it was signed. But they disappeared from the final text, perhaps in an attempt to secure a stronger agreement.</p>
<p>This is important, because in combination they are a large and growing share of total CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. Under current policy and projections, assuming that the world’s total carbon emissions fall by enough to prevent more than 2°C of warming, by 2050 shipping and aviation could <a href="http://bit.ly/1MC0Fj4">contribute 40%</a> of our CO<sub>2</sub> output. Failure to control these sectors will jeopardise the fulfillment of the Paris “well below 2°C” ambition.</p>
<p>Had shipping and aviation been included in the deal, it would most likely have obliged the international bodies responsible for the sectors – the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) – to develop emissions policies to meet the Paris targets. It would have sent a clear signal about the importance of the sectors in the world’s efforts to combat climate change, to two organisations that have a <a href="http://www.transportenvironment.org/press/%E2%80%98fossils-day%E2%80%99-award-aviation-and-shipping-bodies-cop-21">poor track record</a> of action on greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<h2>Big opportunities</h2>
<p>Under current policy, shipping’s CO<sub>2</sub> emissions are expected to rise by <a href="http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Documents/Third%20Greenhouse%20Gas%20Study/GHG3%20Executive%20Summary%20and%20Report.pdf">50-250% by 2050</a>. Paris gives us a target of reaching net-zero carbon emissions around that time, giving us little more than a ship’s economic working lifetime (typically around 30 years) to turn things around. Exactly what contribution shipping will make is unclear but there will certainly be no room for the sector’s currently expected <a href="http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Documents/Third%20Greenhouse%20Gas%20Study/GHG3%20Executive%20Summary%20and%20Report.pdf">1.2-2.8 gigatonnes of carbon emissions in 2050</a>.</p>
<p>Fortunately for shipping, there are plenty of opportunities to address CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. The efficiency of both the world’s trade system and the ships that power it can be substantially improved with better logistics and technologies such as friction-resistant coatings <a href="http://www.shell.com/global/products-services/solutions-for-businesses/shipping-trading/about-shell-shipping/shell-shipping-news-media-releases/silverstream-air-lubrication-technology.html">and lubrication</a>, and even simply reducing ship speeds. There is a fantastic potential for <a href="https://theconversation.com/researchers-are-looking-to-a-surprisingly-old-idea-for-the-next-generation-of-ships-wind-power-44204">wind and</a><a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/business-16686260">solar-powered ships</a>. And ships have the storage capacity for alternative fuels such as <a href="http://shipandbunker.com/news/features/fathom-spotlight/297814-the-dawn-of-hydrogen">hydrogen and ammonia</a>, which are typically less energy dense and so take up more space than fossil fuels.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106032/original/image-20151215-23182-1f5838i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106032/original/image-20151215-23182-1f5838i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106032/original/image-20151215-23182-1f5838i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106032/original/image-20151215-23182-1f5838i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106032/original/image-20151215-23182-1f5838i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106032/original/image-20151215-23182-1f5838i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106032/original/image-20151215-23182-1f5838i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sunset on fossil fuel power.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For aircraft, the timescale of the challenge is similar. Commercial aircraft have a lifespan of around 30 years and demand is growing. But the scale of the technological challenge is greater. There are some <a href="http://www.atag.org/component/downloads/downloads/59.html">further energy efficiency opportunities</a> such as making planes lighter using more composite materials, more aerodynamic designs to reduce the amount of fuel needed, and alternative propulsion systems such as high-bypass turbofans and <a href="https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/apl/research/aircraft_technology/cleen/reports/media/Open_Rotor_Public_Final_Report.pdf">open-rotor engines</a>.</p>
<p>But unlike with ships, we cannot substantially reduce a flight’s CO<sub>2</sub> by reducing aircraft speed or using on-board renewable energy sources. And the weight and space limitations make anything but the most energy dense fuels extremely costly. As a result, <a href="http://www.atag.org/our-activities/sustainable-aviation-biofuels.html">biofuels</a> are regularly suggested as a key way to decarbonise aviation. But these cannot solve the non-CO<sub>2</sub> climate impacts of flying. For example, <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch2s2-6.html">aircraft contrails</a> can impact cloud formation and deposit aerosols into the atmosphere, a problem that as yet has no straightforward solution. </p>
<h2>Regulation changes needed</h2>
<p>The other major challenge for the sectors is that none of these technological solutions will occur without further meaningful regulation. This will have to be led by specific targets and trajectories defined by the sectors’ governing bodies and could include objectives for vehicle CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, or new <a href="http://newclimateeconomy.net/content/press-release-improving-efficiency-through-international-standards-can-cut-fast-rising">market-based mechanisms</a> to drive companies to change their new and existing craft. Oil remains a fantastically cheap and reliable source of energy, and fuel is a key component of a ship or plane’s operating costs. So without such regulatory changes, the industry is highly unlikely to simply accept more expensive fuel costs.</p>
<p>Achieving that regulation in the shipping sector will be difficult for at least two reasons. By recognising a difference between rich and poor countries, the Paris Agreement contradicts the International Maritime Organisation’s <a href="http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Pages/IMO-at-COP21.aspx">non-discrimination principle</a>, which treats all countries equally, creating a conflict that could hamper change. There are also fears that mitigating greenhouse gases from shipping could increase the costs of transport in a way that might damage <a href="http://internationaltransportforum.org/pub/pdf/06RT130.pdf">world trade and economic growth</a>. This is likely one of the reasons the sector was left out of the Paris text.</p>
<p>These two regulatory hurdles must be overcome, and for the sake of the shipping industry – and the planet – they must be overcome fast. Any procrastination will only increase the rate of change required by the sector and so the turbulence it will experience. Fortunately, the IMO and ICAO are UN agencies driven by governments and so we could see the mood and rhetoric of the Paris summit percolate into these bodies.</p>
<p>But that requires governments to be consistent, something they are not historically good at in these sectors. The world needs to watch and hold its politicians and businesses to account more than ever. And these two sectors need to prepare for some fascinating and rather dramatic changes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/52341/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tristan Smith conducts consultancy work for a number of shipping stakeholders (government, non-government and industry). He receives funding from UK Research Councils, Energy Technologies Institute, and a number of charitable foundations. </span></em></p>If shipping and aviation don’t rein in their emissions it could seriously jeopardise our goal of preventing more than 2°C of warming.Tristan Smith, Lecturer in energy and transport, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/522112015-12-14T02:15:21Z2015-12-14T02:15:21ZHow will carbon markets help the Paris climate agreement?<p>The <a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09.pdf">Paris Agreement</a> marks a historic turning point for global co-operation to address climate change.</p>
<p>For the first time, 195 countries committed to take action to limit the global temperature rise to “well below 2C”. Through the final tense hours of the negotiations, it was doubtful whether the provisions on carbon markets would survive, given the staunch opposition to them by certain Latin American countries.</p>
<p>To the contrary, the agreement clearly establishes a new international carbon market mechanism, despite there being no reference to the words “market mechanism” or “carbon market” in the agreement. </p>
<p>So what does the Paris agreement say on carbon markets? </p>
<h2>A new market mechanism</h2>
<p>While the agreement doesn’t mention “carbon markets”, it allows parties to pursue “co-operative approaches” and voluntarily use “international transferred mitigation outcomes” to help meet their reduction targets, while ensuring that transparency and the environmental integrity of the regime is maintained. </p>
<p><a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09.pdf">Article 6</a> of the agreement establishes a new mechanism to “contribute to the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and support sustainable development”. The mechanism allows for the participation of both the public and private sectors, and, significantly, it aims to deliver an overall reduction in global emissions. </p>
<p>It will operate under the “authority and guidance” of a body to be designated by countries who have signed the agreement, and the rules governing its operation will be developed by the technical group under the UN climate body (the UNFCCC), with the view to being adopted in the first meeting of the Parties, after the agreement enters into force.</p>
<p>Countries must agree to robust accounting rules and must not double count emissions reductions. This means emissions reductions achieved in a country through the mechanism cannot be counted by that country towards their own emission reduction target if another country has bought those emissions reductions.</p>
<h2>Learning from the past</h2>
<p>This is not the first time a climate agreement has created a new mechanism. The 1997 Kyoto Protocol established the <a href="http://unfccc.int/essential_background/kyoto_protocol/items/1678.php">Clean Development Mechanism</a> (CDM). </p>
<p>There are key differences between the CDM and the new mechanism. Notably, the new mechanism doesn’t contain any geographic restrictions. Emissions can be reduced in a developed or developing country and be bought by any other country.</p>
<p>This reflects the new dynamic in the Paris Agreement. There is no longer a formal distinction between the responsibility of developed and developing countries to cut. Indeed many developing countries have now made emissions reductions commitments. </p>
<p>The new mechanism is intended to go beyond a purely individual project-based offset mechanism like the CDM, and instead support new policies, activities and programs such as financial support to improve energy efficiency in the building sector of a country or to introduce and implement a renewable energy policy. It is also broad enough to support the linking of emissions trading schemes between parties. </p>
<p>Significantly, the new mechanism requires that it must result in an overall reduction in global emissions, rather than simply offsetting emissions. This was a contentious issue in the negotiations. There is no such requirement in the CDM. Time will tell how countries will implement the mechanism to ensure that this requirement is met. </p>
<h2>What now for international carbon markets?</h2>
<p>The call for a global carbon price was a central theme in the sidelines of the meeting, with business making loud calls for countries to introduce a carbon price and World Bank group president Jim Yong Kim <a href="http://www.climateactionprogramme.org/news/united_world_leaders_call_for_global_carbon_pricing">declaring</a> it was important to get momentum behind carbon pricing.</p>
<p>While much of the detail of the new mechanism is yet to be fleshed out, the framework sends a long-term signal to investors that all countries support the emergence of a global carbon market. It is inevitable that post 2020, we will see a range of inter-linked carbon markets develop.</p>
<p>International units or offsets are an increasingly controversial issue in the global fight against climate change. There is a risk that by using foreign emissions reductions countries could delay the task of decarbonising their own economies. </p>
<p>It is clear that to meet the 2°C or better goal, all major economies will need to make serious domestic emissions reduction cuts by implementing strong domestic policies that will transition away from reliance on fossil fuels. Offsets can play an important role in scaling up ambition and allowing businesses to meet their commitments at the least cost. But the country using them must simultaneously bring down their own domestic emissions.</p>
<p>Public finance alone cannot transition developing countries away from fossil fuels. The mobilisation of private sector finance through carbon markets could play an essential role in scaling up low emissions development, provided that clear accounting and monitoring, reporting and verification rules are established. </p>
<p>This is particularly the case if the new mechanism goes beyond single projects and supports the implementation of new policies and programs. </p>
<p>One of the key risks is that that supply of credits might initially outstrip demand, as only a handful of the countries that support using markets to meet their climate pledges are likely to be buyers, such as Canada, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, Switzerland, Norway. Australia has until now ruled out using international credits, but after the conference environment minister Greg Hunt <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/greg-hunt-on-the-paris-climate-deal/7025102">stated</a> that Australia “probably will” use international credits to meet emissions reduction targets.</p>
<h2>Carbon markets in Australia</h2>
<p>As the Paris summit progressed, Australia softened its position on carbon markets.</p>
<p>In the second week, it signed a <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/un-climate-conference/paris-un-climate-conference-2015-australian-government-suddenly-backs-carbon-markets-20151209-gljue4.html">declaration</a> developed by New Zealand to bolster support for carbon markets and commit to develop rules to govern a post-2020 carbon market. </p>
<p>Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/un-climate-conference/paris-un-climate-conference-2015-australian-government-suddenly-backs-carbon-markets-20151209-gljue4.html">recognised</a> the importance of carbon markets. And at the conference, Greg Hunt reportedly referred to the <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction-fund/about/safeguard-mechanism">Safeguard Mechanism</a> as a “baseline and credit” scheme. </p>
<p>Under the agreement national emissions reductions targets will be reviewed and ramped up, beginning in 2018. Australia should now consider how carbon markets could assist it to increase its existing 2030 target, in order to make a responsible contribution to stabilising temperatures at 2°C or below.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/52211/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine Lake does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite there being no reference to the words “market mechanism” or “carbon market” in the agreement, the agreement clearly establishes a new international carbon market mechanism.Katherine Lake, Research Associate at the Centre for Resources, Energy and Environmental Law, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/517172015-12-11T11:39:30Z2015-12-11T11:39:30ZOur obsession with comfort is the carbon conundrum everyone ignores<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/105245/original/image-20151210-7422-18bb6fw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">'Not a goosebump between us.'</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&autocomplete_id=&search_tracking_id=tV3AeVzR6hETi_bAfz1pvA&searchterm=home%20comfort&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=255005554">WorldWide</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>What characteristics would your ideal home have? A sauna? Lots of natural light? An open-plan kitchen? </p>
<p>Whatever your answer, you probably didn’t consider how the things you wanted would affect the energy you use. The link between comfort and energy is not something that troubles most people, but actually it’s very important. In the UK, our <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/449134/ECUK_Chapter_3_-_Domestic_factsheet.pdf">houses consume</a> up to 27% of the energy we produce. </p>
<p>Governments encourage us to save energy through things such as turning off the lights and taking shorter showers; better insulation and boiler upgrades; and installing renewable energy sources like solar panels in the home. But none of this pays attention to the comforts we expect, and how they have changed over time. To give one example, indoor temperatures in the UK <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-12606943">rose from</a> 12°C to 17.5°C between 1970 and 2010. Despite all our efforts to bring it down, the amount of energy we use at home <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/345141/uk_housing_fact_file_2013.pdf">is not</a> much different to 40 years ago. As the world digests the outcome of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/paris-2015-climate-summit">Paris climate talks</a>, it’s time our desire to be more comfortable came under the spotlight. </p>
<p><a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/The_Invention_of_Comfort.html?id=_Igomu7mUbIC">Until the</a> 18th century, comfort was far less about physical pleasure than spiritual satisfaction, well-being and consolation. Seating was designed to aid sitting respectfully with a refined posture. The equivalent of today’s La-Z-boy chair was created on medical grounds for invalids, pregnant women, and men with gout (see image below) – what we think of as comfortable was not even intended for normal able-bodied people. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/105230/original/image-20151210-7431-1ad0x9a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/105230/original/image-20151210-7431-1ad0x9a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/105230/original/image-20151210-7431-1ad0x9a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/105230/original/image-20151210-7431-1ad0x9a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/105230/original/image-20151210-7431-1ad0x9a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/105230/original/image-20151210-7431-1ad0x9a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/105230/original/image-20151210-7431-1ad0x9a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/105230/original/image-20151210-7431-1ad0x9a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Thomas Rowlandson, 1798.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The shift in our expectations happened for a couple of reasons. There was a <a href="http://faculty.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/gclark/papers/Consumer%20Revolution.pdf">consumer revolution</a> between 1700 and 1850, which saw people filling their homes with objects – clothes, accessories, furnishings and so on. And humanitarian reformers <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/The_Invention_of_Comfort.html?id=_Igomu7mUbIC">began to</a> see comfort as one of our basic human needs, and gave it more of a physical emphasis. Basic standards of comfort came to be seen as a benchmark for social equality – elevating an adequately heated home to a human right, for example. </p>
<h2>The quest for more</h2>
<p>The trouble is that once one basic need is met for everyone, there is always scope for improvement. Turn comfort into a commodity and it becomes part and parcel of a high-consumption society. With the best of intentions, this is what has happened to us. </p>
<p>In Glasgow in 1850, <a href="http://us.macmillan.com/themakingofhome/judithflanders">for instance</a>, each person used an average of 3.73 litres of water per day for drinking, bathing and so forth. Today’s average is roughly 150 litres. This reflects how social conventions have evolved alongside technical innovations, such as the development of the bathroom and new hygiene standards. </p>
<p>In the UK, the years between 1890 and 1920 <a href="http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/134218.Home">marked a</a> dramatic transformation in our expectations of home comfort with the arrival of central heating, indoor plumbing, running hot and cold water, electric light and power. Connecting homes to these networks of water, sewage, gas and electricity unsurprisingly transformed domestic life and the layout of homes. Alongside these changes, our energy requirements skyrocketed. </p>
<p>The past few decades have seen further crucial changes. The pie charts below give a flavour of them. You can see a big rise in appliances, reflecting all the mobiles, tablets, consoles and so forth in modern homes. Energy for home computing <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/449134/ECUK_Chapter_3_-_Domestic_factsheet.pdf">more than doubled</a> between 2000 and 2014, for instance. </p>
<p><strong>Energy use in UK homes, 1970-2011</strong> </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/105228/original/image-20151210-7467-4pn2pg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/105228/original/image-20151210-7467-4pn2pg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/105228/original/image-20151210-7467-4pn2pg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=263&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/105228/original/image-20151210-7467-4pn2pg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=263&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/105228/original/image-20151210-7467-4pn2pg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=263&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/105228/original/image-20151210-7467-4pn2pg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/105228/original/image-20151210-7467-4pn2pg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/105228/original/image-20151210-7467-4pn2pg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/345141/uk_housing_fact_file_2013.pdf">DECC 2013</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also use more hot water, having shifted from weekly bathing to daily showering, and more light bulbs. But the energy shares of water and lighting are down thanks to more energy-efficient technology. Cooking is down too, but don’t be fooled here. We are eating more takeaways and ready meals, so the energy for preparing them has just been outsourced.</p>
<p>On the other hand, we now actually use more energy to heat space. This is despite the fact that central heating has become very common since the 1970s. It is a more efficient way of making a room warm, but we heat more rooms and to higher temperatures. </p>
<h2>Technology and expectations</h2>
<p>Where householders were once brought together by the warmth of the fireplace in the living room, it became possible for them to do individual activities in individual rooms. Hence individual privacy became a fundamental expectation of home comfort, meaning that more rooms needed to be warm enough to spend time in. One consequence has been that the amount of living space per person in the UK <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837709001124">has been</a> rising. And house and household size are some of the biggest determinants of energy demand.</p>
<p>The change in our view of what constitutes a normal indoor temperature in the past 20 years is down to the spread of air conditioning, central heating and <a href="https://theconversation.com/shivering-in-summer-sweating-in-winter-your-building-is-living-a-lie-9194">thermal regulations</a>. Which is an example of why we need to be aware that changes in technology and improvements in efficiency don’t always reduce consumption in the ways we might expect. Indeed, many researchers have been led to <a href="https://theconversation.com/air-conditioning-we-need-to-talk-about-indoor-climate-change-11286">suggest that</a> the 5.5°C rise in 40 years is grounds for switching our focus to indoor climate change. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/105244/original/image-20151210-7425-qngu3h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/105244/original/image-20151210-7425-qngu3h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/105244/original/image-20151210-7425-qngu3h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/105244/original/image-20151210-7425-qngu3h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/105244/original/image-20151210-7425-qngu3h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/105244/original/image-20151210-7425-qngu3h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/105244/original/image-20151210-7425-qngu3h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/105244/original/image-20151210-7425-qngu3h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Everything just so.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&autocomplete_id=&searchterm=family%20laptops&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=218249884">Monkey Business Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In short, governments and academics need to pay much more attention to what people want from their homes. They need to think about how these expectations of “normal” home comforts have been changing, and the influence of improvements in efficiency and low-carbon technologies. What we see from the Paris climate talks is that governments are focusing on <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-we-need-a-space-race-approach-to-saving-the-planet-50885">technical fixes</a> to our carbon problem, rather than <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/02/worlds-richest-10-produce-half-of-global-carbon-emissions-says-oxfam">challenging the</a> richest 10% of the population to question the sustainability of their desire for more and more comfort. Since they are <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/02/worlds-richest-10-produce-half-of-global-carbon-emissions-says-oxfam">responsible for</a> half the world’s carbon emissions, we won’t succeed until that finally changes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/51717/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine Ellsworth-Krebs does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While the Paris climate talks focus on technical fixes, no one talks about how we’re much more afraid of roughing it than ever before.Katherine Ellsworth-Krebs, PhD Researcher in Sustainable Development, University of St AndrewsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.