tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/population-282/articlesPopulation – The Conversation2024-02-12T13:58:39Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2186552024-02-12T13:58:39Z2024-02-12T13:58:39ZFears about falling birthrate in England and Wales are misplaced – the population is due to grow for years to come<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564946/original/file-20231211-21-wqu4sa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=366%2C1633%2C5276%2C2497&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/row-multiethnic-babies-sitting-side-by-144900970">sirtravelalot/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The number of babies born in England and Wales in 2022 <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/bulletins/birthsummarytablesenglandandwales/2022">fell by 3.1%</a> compared to the previous year. The average age of parents is also at a record high, as people choose to delay having children. The average age of mothers <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/bulletins/birthcharacteristicsinenglandandwales/2021">is now nearly 31</a>.</p>
<p>To some, this is alarming. MP Miriam Cates, for example, <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/11/06/give-women-the-choice-to-have-more-babies/">has written that</a> “the economic consequences of this shift are mind blowing”. </p>
<p>Worries about a low birthrate often include that there won’t be enough young people to support an ageing population through pensions and social care, or that a population decline will <a href="https://www.cityam.com/britain-birth-rates-economy-risk-men/">affect the economy</a>. Some worry that a falling population will lead to higher immigration, and present this as <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/11/06/give-women-the-choice-to-have-more-babies/">something to be avoided</a> by increasing the birth rate. </p>
<p>But the population of the UK <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2021basedinterim">is rising</a>, as is the world’s population, and they will probably both continue to rise for years to come. </p>
<p>Everyone has the right to decide when and if they want children. Policies should enable free and informed choices. But individuals shouldn’t be responsible for controlling a country’s future population and economic prospects through childbearing.</p>
<p>Instead of targeting specific birth numbers, we should focus on supporting parents and planning for future population changes.</p>
<h2>Long-term trends</h2>
<p>The figure of 2.1 children is often given as the average number of children required in order for a population to replace itself over the long term. In fact, fertility rates in England and Wales have not been that high <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/bulletins/birthsummarytablesenglandandwales/2022">since 1972</a> – more than 50 years ago – and yet the population has not decreased. </p>
<p>The birth rates in the UK are similar to long-term trends experienced by many places in the world. In Europe, the highest fertility rate according to 2021 data is <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Fertility_statistics#live_births_per_woman_in_the_EU_in_2021">1.84 in France</a>. In England and Wales <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/bulletins/birthsummarytablesenglandandwales/2021">the average is 1.61</a>, which is actually higher than the EU average of 1.53. </p>
<p>Within this context it is clear that current birth rates, while low, are not wildly out of the ordinary. And in fact, projections suggest <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2021basedinterim">an extra 6.6 million people</a> will be living in the UK by 2036. </p>
<p>But it’s important to note that this is a projection based on assumptions about future births, deaths and migration. Projections are not predictions – and migration is particularly hard to predict given how much it depends upon changing policies. </p>
<h2>The role of immigration</h2>
<p>The growth in the UK’s population will be driven largely by immigration, as it has been since the 1990s. Immigration has played a hugely important role in sustaining the UK’s population, economic growth, and workforce. Some people are concerned that immigration contributes to housing shortages and puts pressure on public services. </p>
<p>But evidence suggests that <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/internationalmigrationandthechangingnatureofhousinginenglandwhatdoestheavailableevidenceshow/2017-05-25">there is no direct relationship</a> between international migration and housing demand. And while it is hard to estimate the impact of migrants on the economy, we do know that <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/income-tax-national-insurance-contributions-tax-credits-and-child-benefit-statistics-for-non-uk-nationals-2019-to-2020/income-tax-national-insurance-contributions-tax-credits-and-child-benefit-statistics-for-non-uk-nationals-2019-to-2020">migrants pay more</a> in income tax and national insurance than they claim in tax credits and child benefits; many migrants are <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/public-funds/public-funds-accessible">not actually eligible to claim public funds</a> due to their immigration status.</p>
<p>Dismissing immigrants erroneously places more value on the lives of those who are born in the UK, despite the fact that <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/ethnicity/bulletins/ethnicgroupenglandandwales/census2021#ethnic-groups-in-england-and-wales">one in four people</a> in England and Wales do not classify themselves as “white British”. <a href="https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/uk-attitudes-to-immigration-among-most-positive-internationally-1018742-pub01-115">Survey data also suggests</a> that public attitudes to immigration have become much more positive in recent years. </p>
<p>In addition, many fears about a falling birth rate concern its impact on an ageing population and the economy. The foundation of our pensions and social support system is that a society needs enough people of working age to support the needs of those who are too old (or too young) to work.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Grandmother holding baby" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565775/original/file-20231214-19-oit2hi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565775/original/file-20231214-19-oit2hi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565775/original/file-20231214-19-oit2hi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565775/original/file-20231214-19-oit2hi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565775/original/file-20231214-19-oit2hi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565775/original/file-20231214-19-oit2hi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565775/original/file-20231214-19-oit2hi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Babies born today won’t contribute to the pensions of the elderly for around two decades.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/grandmother-kissing-her-baby-grandson-indoors-404522878">Martin Novak/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the UK, most “baby boomers” – the people born in a post-war peak in the birth rate – have reached pension age, requiring more working people to support them. </p>
<p>Higher fertility rates might be a long-term solution to this issue, but it takes a very long time for babies to reach working age, and in the meantime they require a great deal of social support in the form of childcare, healthcare and education. An increase in the fertility rate today would not have much impact on the working age population for at least 20 years. </p>
<h2>Returning to work</h2>
<p>Labour shortages are not always a result of a lack of births, either. Indeed, the prohibitive cost of childcare means that many parents, especially women, struggle to return to work after having children or do not return in their full capacity. </p>
<p>Over <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/economicinactivity/datasets/economicinactivitybyreasonseasonallyadjustedinac01sa">1.5 million people</a> are economically inactive, 85% of them women, because they are looking after family. This means that having more babies might even exacerbate labour shortages, or lead to people with important skills not making use of them in the workforce. </p>
<p>It is notoriously hard, not to mention ethically problematic, to change fertility rates through direct government policy. And, importantly, the ability to decide if, when and how often to have children is a fundamental human right. </p>
<p>Instead, policies should focus on supporting children and families. The demographic future is not easy to manipulate, so we must plan for it rather than attempt to tinker with fertility rates.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218655/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melanie Channon receives funding from UKRI. She is Honorary Secretary of the British Society for Population Studies and a non-exec director of Bath Social and Development Research Ltd. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bernice Kuang works on an Economic and Social Research Council funded project.</span></em></p>Birth rates are falling – but the population in England will continue to rise.Melanie Channon, Reader in Social Policy, University of BathBernice Kuang, Postdoctoral research associate, University of SouthamptonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2198122024-02-08T00:13:16Z2024-02-08T00:13:16ZPopulation can’t be ignored. It has to be part of the policy solution to our world’s problems<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571345/original/file-20240125-25-ep3bs0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3544%2C2352&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/planet-earth-big-city-view-highest-575859517">Marina Poushkina/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There is a growing consensus that environmental problems, particularly the effects of climate change, pose a grave challenge to humanity. Pollution, habitat destruction, intractable waste issues and, for many, deteriorating quality of life should be added to the list.</p>
<p>Economic growth is the chief culprit. We forget, though, that environmental impacts are a consequence of per capita consumption multiplied by the number of people doing the consuming. Our own numbers matter. </p>
<p>Population growth threatens environments at global, national and regional scales. Yet the policy agenda either ignores human population, or <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-08/p2023-435150.pdf">fosters alarm</a> when perfectly natural trends such as declining fertility and longer lifespans cause growth rates to fall and populations to age.</p>
<p>That there are still too many of us is a problem few want to talk about. Fifty years ago, population was <a href="https://www.clubofrome.org/publication/the-limits-to-growth/">considered to be an issue</a>, not only for the developing world, but for the planet as a whole. Since then, the so-called green revolution in agriculture made it possible to feed many more people. But the costs of these practices, which relied heavily on pesticide and fertiliser use and relatively few crops, are only now beginning to be understood. </p>
<p>The next 30 years will be critical. The most recent <a href="https://population.un.org/wpp/">United Nations projections</a> point to a global population of 9.7 billion by 2050 and 10.4 billion by 2100. There are 8 billion of us now. Another 2 billion will bring already stressed ecosystems to the point of collapse. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571346/original/file-20240125-29-qgaznz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A line graph showing global population growth since 1950 and projection to 2100." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571346/original/file-20240125-29-qgaznz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571346/original/file-20240125-29-qgaznz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571346/original/file-20240125-29-qgaznz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571346/original/file-20240125-29-qgaznz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571346/original/file-20240125-29-qgaznz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571346/original/file-20240125-29-qgaznz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571346/original/file-20240125-29-qgaznz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The latest global population projection from the United Nations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Line/900">UN World Population Prospects 2022</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>It’s the whole world’s problem</h2>
<p>Many would agree overpopulation is a problem in many developing countries, where large families keep people poor. But there are too many of us in the developed world, too. Per person, people in high-income countries <a href="https://populationmatters.org/the-facts-resources-consumption/">consume 60% more resources</a> than in upper-middle-income countries and more than 13 times as much as people in low-income countries.</p>
<p>From 1995 to 2020, the UK population, for example, grew by 9.1 million. A crowded little island, particularly around London and the south-east, became more crowded still. </p>
<p>Similarly, the Netherlands, <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.POP.DNST?most_recent_value_desc=true&view=map">one of the most densely populated countries</a>, had just under 10 million inhabitants in 1950 and 17.6 million in 2020. In the 1950s, the government encouraged emigration to reduce population densities. By the 21st century, another 5 million people in a tiny country certainly caused opposition to immigration, but concern was wrongly focused on the ethnic composition of the increase. The principal problem of overpopulation received little attention. </p>
<p>Australia is celebrated as “a land of boundless plains to share”. In reality it’s a small country that consists of big distances. </p>
<p>As former NSW Premier Bob Carr <a href="https://fac.flinders.edu.au/dspace/api/core/bitstreams/6734a834-4409-46fb-b92c-3a7aec8e76d1/content">predicted</a> some years ago, as Australia’s population swelled, the extra numbers would be housed in spreading suburbs that would gobble up farmland nearest our cities and threaten coastal and near-coastal habitats. How right he was. The outskirts of Sydney and Melbourne are carpeted in big, ugly houses whose inhabitants will be forever car-dependent. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An aerial view of city suburbs stretching out to the horizon" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571348/original/file-20240125-27-jhtqbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571348/original/file-20240125-27-jhtqbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571348/original/file-20240125-27-jhtqbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571348/original/file-20240125-27-jhtqbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571348/original/file-20240125-27-jhtqbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571348/original/file-20240125-27-jhtqbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571348/original/file-20240125-27-jhtqbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Non-stop growth means our cities are becoming less efficient and liveable.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-urban-sprawl-along-rapidly-1977700022">Harley Kingston/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Doing nothing has a high cost</h2>
<p>The longer we do nothing about population growth, the worse it gets. More people now inevitably mean more in the future than there would otherwise have been. </p>
<p>We live very long lives, on average, so once we’re born, we tend to stick around. It takes a while for falling birthrates to have any impact. </p>
<p>And when they do, the population boosters respond with cries of alarm. The norm is seen as a young or youngish population, while the elderly are presented as a parasitical drag upon the young. </p>
<p>Falling reproduction rates should not be regarded as a disaster but as a natural occurrence to which we can adapt. </p>
<p>Recently, we have been told Australia must have high population growth, because of workforce shortages. It is rarely stated exactly what these shortages are, and why we cannot train enough people to fill them. </p>
<p>Population and development are connected in subtle ways, at global, national and regional scales. At each level, stabilising the population holds the key to a more environmentally secure and equitable future. </p>
<p>For those of us who value the natural world for its own sake, the matter is clear – we should make room for other species. For those who do not care about other species, the reality is that without a more thoughtful approach to our own numbers, planetary systems will continue to break down.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571349/original/file-20240125-17-fslren.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Line graph showing the probabilities of global population projections and the impacts of having 0.5 more or less children per woman" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571349/original/file-20240125-17-fslren.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571349/original/file-20240125-17-fslren.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571349/original/file-20240125-17-fslren.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571349/original/file-20240125-17-fslren.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571349/original/file-20240125-17-fslren.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571349/original/file-20240125-17-fslren.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571349/original/file-20240125-17-fslren.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cutting births by just 0.5 children per woman can dramatically reduce the level at which the world’s population peaks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/900">UN World Population Prospects 2022</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Let women choose to have fewer children</h2>
<p>So, what to do? If we assume the Earth’s population is going to exceed 10 billion, the type of thinking behind this assumption means we are sleepwalking our way into a nightmarish future when a better one is within our grasp.</p>
<p>A radical rethink of the global economy is needed to address climate change. In relation to population growth, if we can move beyond unhelpful ideologies, the solution is already available. </p>
<p>People are not stupid. In particular, women are not stupid. Where women are given the choice, they restrict the number of children they have. This freedom is as basic a human right as you can get. </p>
<p>A much-needed demographic transition could be under way right now, if only the population boosters would let it happen. </p>
<p>Those who urge greater rates of reproduction, whether they realise it or not, are serving only the short-term interests of developers and some religious authorities, for whom big societies mean more power for themselves. It is a masculinist fantasy for which most women, and many men, have long been paying a huge price. </p>
<p>Women will show the way, if only we would let them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219812/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jenny Stewart does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Most of the problems confronting the world come down to population growth. But where women are given the choice, they limit the number of children they have.Jenny Stewart, Professor of Public Policy, ADFA Canberra, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2208322024-02-07T20:46:33Z2024-02-07T20:46:33ZDemography and reproductive rights are environmental issues: Insights from sub-Saharan Africa<p>Sub-Saharan Africa’s population is growing <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf">three times faster</a> than the rest of the world with an average of 4.6 births per woman in 2021. By comparison, <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91f0015m/91f0015m2024001-eng.htm">the fertility rate in Canada was 1.3 births per woman in 2022</a>. </p>
<p>The region is projected to continue to be the fastest growing in the world, with a population increasing from 1.2 billion in 2021 to 2.1 billion in 2050. </p>
<p>Sustained and rapid population growth has deep implications for development, <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/undesa_pd_2022_policy_brief_population_growth.pdf">exacerbating social, economic and environmental challenges</a> from food insecurity and gender inequity to environmental degradation. </p>
<p>At the same time, Sub-Saharan Africa also has a <a href="https://www.populationinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Population-and-Climate-Change-Vulnerability.pdf">disproportionate vulnerability to climate change and environmental degradation</a>. </p>
<p>It is critical that population dynamics and reproductive health be at the forefront of ongoing environmental discussions.</p>
<h2>Population dynamics and environment</h2>
<p>There are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat8680">many just and humane ways to slow the pace of rapid population growth while also respecting human rights and the need for economic development</a>. Key to this goal is advancing reproductive rights, gender equity and education. </p>
<p>Advancing reproductive autonomy by ensuring that individuals have the means to choose the timing and frequency of childbearing carries significant benefits for climate change resilience and environmental sustainability. </p>
<p>As individuals are given the means to choose the number, timing and spacing of their children, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2470">they tend to have fewer children</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/africas-groundbreaking-womens-rights-treaty-turns-20-the-hits-and-misses-of-the-maputo-protocol-209607">Africa's groundbreaking women's rights treaty turns 20 - the hits and misses of the Maputo protocol</a>
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<p>It is estimated that if the United Nations’ <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/">Sustainable Development Goals</a> target for contraceptive use and education are met, global population size would decline from today’s 8 billion to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30677-2">6.29 billion in 2100</a>. If not, then the United Nations medium <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf">projection of 10.3 billion appears more likely</a>. </p>
<p>Yet, despite their far-ranging implications for environmental sustainability, demographic trajectories are largely omitted or regarded as set in stone by the development and environmental communities. This makes for a missed opportunity for transformative change. </p>
<p>Discussions that highlight the negative impacts of global population growth are also often marginalized and perceived as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10042857.2016.1149296">unwarranted, alarmist, coercive and racist</a>. At the same time, it is important to remember that high birth rates should not carry the stigma of blame but instead be seen within the lens of wider socio-economic issues.</p>
<p>We live in a demographically divided world. Some regions of the planet are experiencing sustained population growth, while others are witnessing relative stability and even decline. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/drc-has-one-of-the-fastest-growing-populations-in-the-world-why-this-isnt-good-news-209420">DRC has one of the fastest growing populations in the world – why this isn't good news</a>
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<p>In this context concerns about population growth can appear to have limited global application, making it more challenging to express alarm over increasing human numbers in relation to population declines elsewhere </p>
<p>However, this does not mean that exponential human growth cannot pose concerns in some regions.</p>
<h2>Sub-Saharan perspectives</h2>
<p>As a <a href="https://uniweb.uottawa.ca/members/4481">researcher</a> in the emerging field of planetary health, I study the nexus of reproductive rights, population dynamics and environmental sustainability. </p>
<p>In collaboration with <a href="https://www.ug.edu.gh/economics/people/staff-faculty/nkechi-s-owoo">Nkechi S. Owoo</a>, from the University of Ghana, we set out to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3197/JPS.63772236595233">explore stakeholder perceptions</a> around these issues. We were surprised to learn that sub-Saharan Africans perspectives had not been individually documented, despite their unique relevance. </p>
<p>Our study included a survey and follow-up interviews with 402 participants from 42 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The results would surprise many observers who may doubt that population growth is a concern in Africa.</p>
<p>While there were geographic and gender limitations in our sample size — and more research will be required to further explore this topic — we nevertheless feel that <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/world4040048">our findings</a> provide useful insights into wide-ranging public concern for population growth. Respondents overwhelmingly perceived population growth as a phenomenon representing challenges to environmental sustainability, economic and social goals, peace and security. </p>
<p>Many participants expressed the view that population dynamics ought to be integrated in policies and discussions aimed at improving or preserving the quality of the environment. One respondent in particular stated that </p>
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<p>“population dynamics should always be put at the forefront whenever climate and the environment are being discussed”. </p>
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<p>A small number of participants argued that population growth was not a driver of environmental degradation and climate change, which was attributed to the excessive consumption habits and disproportionate responsibility of the Global North.</p>
<p>The large majority of our respondents, however, held a different view. They felt that the disproportionate role of consumption did not preclude acknowledging the role of population growth in generating environmental degradation. </p>
<p>A survey participant from South Africa, for example, stated that: </p>
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<p>“The cumulative impact of 1 billion low per-capita footprints still equals a high impact. This is not to discount the high impact of people that may have lower fertility rates and higher per-capita footprints — who are as important to address.”</p>
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<p>Participants overwhelmingly felt reproductive health and rights, alongside education and women empowerment considerations, ought to be integrated in environmental sustainability discussions and policies. </p>
<p>They agreed with the notion that contraception and family planning services can have a positive impact on environmental sustainability. They also agreed that integrating family planning as an environmental policy would contribute to accelerating much needed progress on reproductive rights and sustainability. </p>
<h2>It is time to discuss demography</h2>
<p>This study presents surprising evidence that rebuts common assumptions about the sensitivity of discussing population trends in developing countries. </p>
<p>Our survey suggests that a majority of those working in a field that is related to economic, social, or environmental development in sub-Saharan Africa consider the topic of population growth important. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">‘What will it take to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals?’ Produced by the United Nations.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Our study also supports the importance of amplifying the voices of people among those most exposed to rapid population growth and most vulnerable to climate change and environmental degradation. These individuals, more often than not, live in places where gender equity and access to family planning face <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s40834-022-00198-5">significant challenges</a>.</p>
<p>Most of our research respondents are concerned by population growth because of its negative environmental and social implications, and wish to integrate demographic and reproductive rights and gender equity considerations in environmental discourses and policies. </p>
<p><a href="https://mahb.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/biad080.pdf">Similar calls to stabilize and gradually decrease the human population by supporting reproductive autonomy and gender equity</a> are regularly issued by leading environmental scientists, and must be prioritized to achieve the transformative change needed for sustainability.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220832/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Céline Delacroix is a Senior Fellow with the Population Institute (USA), which provided financial support to pursue this research project by offering a fellowship to its authors.</span></em></p>Environmental policymakers and scholars must listen to sub-Saharan Africans’ voices and recognize the importance of population for achieving sustainable development goals.Céline Delacroix, Adjunct Professor and Senior Fellow, School of Health Sciences, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2191552024-01-21T08:55:26Z2024-01-21T08:55:26ZSouth Africa’s ageing population comes with new challenges. How best to adapt to them<p><em>Young people – under the age of 15 – currently make up 29% of South Africa’s population. But this will soon change: the aged portion of the population is forecast to rise from 2030, bringing many challenges. Lauren Johnston, an economics and political economy expert, recently published a <a href="https://saiia.org.za/research/poor-old-brics-demographic-trendsand-policy-challenges/">paper</a> on the subject. We asked her to put the developments into perspective.</em></p>
<h2>What is South Africa’s current population profile?</h2>
<p>South Africa is “young” among the Brics countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), but “old” by African standards. For example, seniors make up 5.9% of South Africa’s population and children 28.6%. This <a href="https://saiia.org.za/research/poor-old-brics-demographic-trendsand-policy-challenges/">compares</a> with Russia’s 15.8% seniors and 17.2% children, and China’s 13.7% seniors and 17.7% children. </p>
<p>The sub-Saharan average is 3.0% for seniors and 41.8% for children. </p>
<h2>What’s up ahead?</h2>
<p>South Africa faces no fears of a substantially diminished working-age population, unlike a number of high-income countries. Nonetheless, population structure estimates suggest that it will be home to a rising number of seniors. </p>
<p><strong>Projected population structure, South Africa</strong></p>
<p>In general, the increase in population share of seniors is driven by falling rates of mortality and birth, leading to fewer younger people relative to elders. In South Africa’s case, a falling fertility rate <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN">from over six births per woman in 1960 to just over two today</a> is a key driver. </p>
<p>An ageing population is statistically defined as a population with 7% or more of people aged 65 and over. </p>
<p>In 2022, seniors made up 5.9% of South Africa’s population. So, it is not yet home to an ageing population. But the <a href="https://population.un.org/wpp/">United Nations</a> forecasts it will join the “population ageing” club as early as 2030. By around 2060 it will be home to an “aged” population – with seniors accounting for 14% of the population. </p>
<h2>What unique challenges lie ahead?</h2>
<p>In general, an ageing population puts added pressure on the working-age population. Each worker has to be more productive, just to maintain total output. Fiscal resources also come under pressure because there are fewer people of working age – net contributors to the economy. There are also more seniors requiring resources for their health and welfare. </p>
<p>For developing countries this can be especially precarious because budgets are often under strain. So are the resources needed for pursuing basic national development. Moreover, a trend of population ageing arising in developing countries is relatively new – just a few decades old. </p>
<h2>How prepared is South Africa for the challenges?</h2>
<p>One challenge for “young” South Africa is that the slower pace of demographic change reduces imminent and more obvious demographic change pressure. The very steady increase in the share of elders alongside pressing broader socioeconomic challenges gives the government little incentive to prioritise social or economic ageing-related issues on its policy agenda.</p>
<p>The array of socioeconomic challenges, including <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.za/storage/app/media/1_Stock/Events_Institutional/2020/womens_charter_2020/docs/19-02-2021/20210212_Womens_Charter_Review_KZN_19th_of_Feb_afternoon_Session_Final.pdf">poverty</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-police-are-losing-the-war-on-crime-heres-how-they-need-to-rethink-their-approach-218048">crime</a>, entrenched <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-cant-crack-the-inequality-curse-why-and-what-can-be-done-213132">inequality</a> and <a href="https://kleinmanenergy.upenn.edu/news-insights/shedding-the-load-power-shortages-widen-divides-in-south-africa/">energy access</a>, means that the need to respond to the demographic transition is less of an immediate priority. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/millions-of-young-south-africans-are-jobless-study-finds-that-giving-them-soft-skills-like-networking-helps-their-prospects-202969">Millions of young South Africans are jobless: study finds that giving them 'soft' skills like networking helps their prospects</a>
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<p>As a result, very few older South Africans benefit from aged care services, and then only the very frail, with inconsistent reach across provinces. Moreover, according to an October 2023 University of Cape Town study, there is little support for older persons who have high care needs and are at home, <a href="https://www.news.uct.ac.za/article/-2023-10-02-funding-elder-care-in-south-africa-new-report#:%7E:text=Based%20on%20estimates%2C%20it%20is,older%20persons%20who%20need%20it.">or for active older persons</a>. Most elders do not have access to services that support their needs, but also fear rising healthcare costs, owing to the rising incidence of non-communicable diseases. These include strokes, cancer and diabetes.</p>
<p>Overall the basic national social welfare net is inadequate. For example, retirees living off less than 16% of their pre-retirement salaries are among those with the highest risk of <a href="https://theconversation.com/retired-women-in-south-africa-carry-a-huge-burden-of-poverty-177379">living in poverty</a>. This group is three times more at risk of poverty than any other group in South Africa. Black female widows are most at risk.</p>
<p>While the economic value of support to older persons has grown over time, the increase has been insufficient to <a href="https://www.news.uct.ac.za/article/-2023-10-02-funding-elder-care-in-south-africa-new-report#:%7E:text=Based%20on%20estimates%2C%20it%20is,older%20persons%20who%20need%20it.">meet the needs of this growing population</a>. Statistics South Africa estimates that population ageing alone is already adding around 0.3% to <a href="https://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=13445">expected health-related expenditures annually</a>. These trends suggest that without change, South Africa’s seniors will become even less adequately served with time.</p>
<h2>What needs to be done to prepare better?</h2>
<p>South Africa has committed to establishing frameworks for healthy ageing based on the <a href="https://www.who.int/initiatives/decade-of-healthy-ageing#:%7E:text=The%20United%20Nations%20Decade%20of,communities%20in%20which%20they%20live.">United Nations Decade of Healthy Ageing from 2020 to 2030</a>. The agenda has four core areas of priority – age-friendly environments, combating ageism, integrated care, and long-term care. To realise these goals, difficult political decisions would need to be made around taxation and redistribution, as more revenue is required to ensure basic dignity for South African seniors. </p>
<p>Guided by the <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/legislation/acts/2006-013_olderpersons.pdf">Older Persons Act</a> and the <a href="https://social.desa.un.org/issues/ageing/madrid-plan-of-action-and-its-implementation-main/madrid-plan-of-action-and-its">Madrid Plan of Action on Ageing</a>, the Department of Social Development in partnership with other departments, and the <a href="https://saopf.org.za/">South African Older Persons Forum</a> should further implement <a href="https://www.gov.za/news/media-advisories/government-activities/minister-lindiwe-zulu-officially-opens-2022-active">South Africa’s Active Ageing Programme</a> to empower senior citizens to stay physically and intellectually active, to continue to enjoying healthy, purposeful lives. This should help reduce pressure on more intensive care sectors and needs. </p>
<p>As explained in my <a href="https://saiia.org.za/research/poor-old-brics-demographic-trendsand-policy-challenges/">paper</a>, South Africa should take advantage of the Brics grouping’s new population structure and <a href="https://brics2023.gov.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Jhb-II-Declaration-24-August-2023-%201.pdf">development cooperation agenda</a>. That way, state officials, civil society and entrepreneurs may be better positioned to take advantage of opportunities to reduce healthcare and aged care costs. </p>
<p>To direct sustain the economy as the population ages, South Africa needs to ensure that the economy is robust enough to accommodate a worsening dependency burden. For example, young people must be proportionately empowered to drive productivity growth and innovation. That way, the increasing costs associated with the ageing population could be accommodated while <a href="https://www.uneca.org/stories/eca-discusses-african-middle-income-countries%E2%80%99-challenges-and-solutions-to-accelerate">continuing to drive national development</a>. </p>
<p>Digitisation trends and the Brics population and development agenda may, as examples, also foster opportunities for education and training among not only young South Africans, but all working-age people. This will help raise productivity potential per worker and <a href="https://saiia.org.za/research/poor-old-brics-demographic-trendsand-policy-challenges/">extend productive working lifespans</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/drc-has-one-of-the-fastest-growing-populations-in-the-world-why-this-isnt-good-news-209420">DRC has one of the fastest growing populations in the world – why this isn't good news</a>
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<p>South African policy makers and entrepreneurs should also be cognisant of how population ageing affects <a href="https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/OP-351-AGDP-Johnston-FINAL-WEB.pdf">not only other Brics economies</a>, but also patterns of trade and investment. For example, over the coming decades, population decline in middle-income China, and the rapid decline of its working-age population, is likely to push China away from labour-intensive industries, and <a href="https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/222235/1/GLO-DP-0593.pdf">towards capital-intensive industries and sectors</a>.</p>
<p>In other words, population ageing at home and abroad will shift economic demography-weighted opportunities and challenges at home. The more responsive South Africa can be to these changes, the better off will the nation be.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219155/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lauren Johnston does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In general, an ageing population puts added pressure on the working-age population to be more productive – just to maintain total output – amid growing fiscal constraints.Lauren Johnston, Associate Professor, China Studies Centre, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2206672024-01-18T04:49:23Z2024-01-18T04:49:23ZChina’s population shrinks again and could more than halve – here’s what that means<p>China’s population has shrunk for the second year in a row. </p>
<p>The National Bureau of Statistics reports just 9.02 million births in 2023 – only half as many as in 2017. Set alongside China’s 11.1 million deaths in 2023, up 500,000 on 2022, it means China’s population shrank <a href="https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202401/t20240117_1946605.html">2.08 million</a> in 2023 after falling 850,000 in 2022. That’s a loss of about 3 million in two years.</p>
<p>The two consecutive declines are the first since the <a href="https://alphahistory.com/chineserevolution/great-chinese-famine/">great famine</a> of 1959-1961, and the trend is accelerating. </p>
<p>Updated low-scenario projections from a research team at Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, one of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-population-is-about-to-shrink-for-the-first-time-since-the-great-famine-struck-60-years-ago-heres-what-it-means-for-the-world-176377">first</a> to predict the 2022 turndown, have China’s population shrinking from its present 1.4 billion to just 525 million by 2100.</p>
<p>China’s working-age population is projected to fall to just 210 million by 2100 – a mere one-fifth of its peak in 2014. </p>
<h2>Deaths climbing as births falling</h2>
<p>The death rate is climbing as an inevitable result of the population ageing, and also an upsurge of COVID in the first few months of 2023.</p>
<p>The population is ageing mainly because the birth rate is falling.</p>
<p>China’s total fertility rate, the average number of births per woman, was fairly flat at about 1.66 between 1991 and 2017 under China’s one-child policy. But it then fell to 1.28 in 2020, to 1.08 in 2022 and is now around 1, which is way below the level of 2.1 generally thought necessary to sustain a population. </p>
<p>By way of comparison, Australia and the United States have fertility rates of <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/births-australia/latest-release">1.6</a>. In 2023 South Korea has the world’s lowest rate, <a href="https://time.com/6488894/south-korea-low-fertility-rate-trend-decline/">0.72</a>.</p>
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<h2>Births plummet despite three-child policy</h2>
<p>China <a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3135510/chinas-one-child-policy-what-was-it-and-what-impact-did-it">abandoned</a> its one-child policy in 2016. In 2021 the country introduced a three-child policy, backed by <a href="https://www.china-briefing.com/news/china-releases-supporting-measures-for-three-child-policy/">tax and other incentives</a>.</p>
<p>But births are continuing to fall. In part this is because of an established one-child norm, in part because the one-child policy cut the number of women of child-bearing age, and in part because economic pressures are making parenthood less attractive.</p>
<p>China’s National Bureau of Statistics says employees of enterprises work an average of <a href="https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202401/t20240117_1946605.html">49 hours</a> per week, more than nine hours per day. Women graduates earn less than men and are increasingly <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/4c47ddba-0e1a-467e-9f7c-33d71b0e843a">postponing having children</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-population-is-now-inexorably-shrinking-bringing-forward-the-day-the-planets-population-turns-down-198061">China's population is now inexorably shrinking, bringing forward the day the planet's population turns down</a>
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<h2>The Year of the Dragon offers hope</h2>
<p>One hope is that 2024 will see a bump in births, being the year of the dragon in Chinese astrology, a symbol of good fortune. </p>
<p>Some families may have chosen to postpone childbirth during the less auspicious year of the rabbit in 2023. At least <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1973601">one study</a> has identified such an effect.</p>
<h2>An older, more dependent population</h2>
<p>The same research team at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences and the Centre for Policy Studies at Australia’s Victoria University have China’s population falling by more than one-half to around 525 million by 2100, a fall about 62 million bigger than previously forecast.</p>
<p>The working-age population is set to fall more sharply to 210 million.</p>
<p>We now expect the number of Chinese aged 65 and older to overtake the number of Chinese of traditional working age in 2077, three years earlier than previously.</p>
<p>By 2100 we expect every 100 Chinese of traditional working-age to have to support 137 elderly Chinese, up from just 21 at present.</p>
<p>Our central scenario assumes China’s fertility rate will recover, climbing slowly to 1.3. Our low scenario assumes it will decline further to 0.88 over the next decade and then gradually recover to 1.0 by 2050 before holding steady.</p>
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<p>We have based our assumptions on observations of actual total fertility rates in China’s region and their downward trend. In 2022 these rates hit 1.26 in Japan, 1.04 in Singapore, 0.87 in Taiwan, 0.8 in Hong Kong and 0.78 in South Korea.</p>
<p>In none of these countries has fertility rebounded, despite government efforts. These trends point to what demographers call the “<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00094.x">low-fertility trap</a>” in which fertility becomes hard to lift once it falls below 1.5 or 1.4.</p>
<h2>An earlier peak in world population</h2>
<p>At present accounting for one-sixth of the world’s population, China’s accelerated decline will bring forward the day when the world’s population peaks.</p>
<p>Our updated forecast for China brings forward our forecast of when the world’s population will peak by one year to 2083, although there is much that is uncertain (including what will happen in India, now bigger than China, whose fertility rate has <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?page=&locations=IN">fallen below</a> replacement level).</p>
<p>The accelerated decline in China’s population will weaken China’s economy and, through it, the world’s economy.</p>
<p>It will put downward pressure on Chinese consumer spending and upward pressure on wages and government spending. As the world’s second-largest economy, this weakness will present challenges to the world’s economic recovery.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220667/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Xiujian Peng works for Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University in Australia. </span></em></p>Deaths have exceeded births by 3 million over the past two years. China’s working-age population is set to plunge to one-fifth of its peak.Xiujian Peng, Senior Research Fellow, Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2172512023-12-20T21:13:38Z2023-12-20T21:13:38ZClimate change solutions require collaboration between politicians, scientists and entrepreneurs<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/climate-change-solutions-require-collaboration-between-politicians-scientists-and-entrepreneurs" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9932965/canada-climate-action-economy-poll/">Most Canadians agree</a> something should be done about climate change. Yet, even though there is tremendous pressure on politicians to <em>do something</em>, <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/discontent-eu-green-deal-climate-change-backlash/">widespread discontent</a> usually follows whatever action they may take. </p>
<p>How can governments balance the desire for climate action with the usual discontent that follows any major climate regulation? Looking to the past reveals key insights.</p>
<p>Half a century ago, the depletion of planetary natural resources was also a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/712926">major concern</a>, alongside the perceived <a href="https://www.library.dartmouth.edu/digital/digital-collections/limits-growth">implications this would have for economic growth</a>. </p>
<p>Indeed in 1990, the biologist Paul Ehrlich <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1990/12/02/magazine/betting-on-the-planet.html">lost his famous bet against economist Julian Simon</a> when he predicted ten years earlier that prices of raw materials would increase over the long-term due to limited supply and increased demand. This outcome did not come to pass.</p>
<p>At the same time, the reverberations of the government-supported <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1970/borlaug/biographical/">work of biologist Norman Borlaug</a>, who helped usher in the Green Revolution, were still being felt. </p>
<p>Simply put, gloomy <a href="https://www.britannica.com/money/Malthusianism">Malthusian predictions</a> of population collapse overlooked arguably more fundamental factors of human ingenuity and technological innovation — perhaps because their impact is so hard to predict and quantify. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/7-5-billion-and-counting-how-many-humans-can-the-earth-support-98797">7.5 billion and counting: How many humans can the Earth support?</a>
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<p>While natural resources may be limited (and the ecosystems we rely upon are fragile), alternative sources of energy can be perfected and new cultivation methods <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.0912953109">can be invented</a>. Governments should remember the work of Borlaug and the insights it provides into promoting innovation when looking to address the climate crisis. </p>
<h2>Taxing carbon</h2>
<p><a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/what-is-climate-change/">Concern about climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions</a> has grown exponentially since Simon and Ehrlich first made their wager in 1980. So much so that the <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/">2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28)</a> ended with a statement of intent and pledges to move away from fossil fuels and reduce carbon emissions.</p>
<p>One commonly discussed mechanism to do so <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/pricing-pollution-how-it-will-work/carbon-pollution-pricing-federal-benchmark-information.html">are carbon pricing schemes</a>, or a carbon tax.</p>
<p>It is <a href="https://climate.mit.edu/explainers/carbon-pricing">generally accepted among economists that carbon pricing schemes</a> such as taxing pollution, subsidizing reductions in pollution, or establishing markets for emission rights, would help reduce emissions. These schemes can easily be justified on the basis that emissions are a textbook example of an “<a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/stantcheva/files/lecture7.pdf">externality</a>,” or a side effect of some economic activity on third parties.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-carbon-tax-on-investment-income-could-be-more-fair-and-make-it-less-profitable-to-pollute-a-new-analysis-shows-why-211485">A carbon tax on investment income could be more fair and make it less profitable to pollute – a new analysis shows why</a>
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<p>Would such a move be effective, though? The available evidence shows that carbon taxes set at reasonable levels have a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.05.050">limited to sometimes insignificant effect on individual behaviour</a>, although there are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdae9">variations across sectors and countries</a>. </p>
<p>This limited effectiveness, and the fact that Canada only accounts for <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions.html">1.5 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions</a>, suggests the planned massive increase of this tax by the Canadian federal government would have a very limited effect on global carbon emissions. It might also increase inequalities across the population, as some households <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/climate/carbon-tax-home-heating-oil-1.7015480">will be more impacted</a>.</p>
<p>Moreover, substantial increases in carbon taxes to account for the social cost of externalities can permanently antagonize a fraction of the population with regards to climate policies, and even trigger popular protests.</p>
<p>A planned increase in gasoline taxation triggered the widespread <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/03/who-are-the-gilets-jaunes-and-what-do-they-want">“gilets jaunes”</a> protests that paralyzed France for months. The current context is perhaps even more explosive due to high levels of inflation and <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canada-needs-345-million-more-homes-by-2030-to-cut-housing-costs-as/">rising housing costs</a> paired with higher interest rates. </p>
<p>Considering this delicate political balance, it is perhaps not surprising that governments often make bold claims about the importance of mitigating climate change <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/08/citizens-politicians-combat-climate-change-00004590">without actually doing much</a>. </p>
<p>When they take action, as Justin Trudeau’s government did, they are criticized about the negative consequences <a href="https://edmontonjournal.com/opinion/columnists/opinion-anti-energy-policies-hurting-canadas-economy-reputation">for the energy sector</a>, public finances and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/bakx-scoc-ruling-1.6995962">the division of power between federal and provincial governments</a>. In the end, their decisions may also depend on <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/trudeau-pulls-carbon-tax-from-home-heating-oil">electoral considerations</a>. </p>
<p>What shall they do? Wise politicians should remember the power of their words and set up proper incentives and infrastructure for the adoption of new technologies. By shaping the public discourse and hinting at future policies, they can direct the attention of scientists and entrepreneurs to specific issues who are better placed to find solutions to environmental problems. </p>
<p>Simply put, the limits of political possibility mean governments can only do so much. It is essential that governments use their power to not just regulate, but incentivize innovation. </p>
<h2>Promoting innovation</h2>
<p>In the next few years, the advancements could be the widespread adoption of solar power, nuclear power, carbon capture and electric cars. In a few decades, it could be <a href="https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-is-nuclear-fusion">nuclear fusion</a>, some type of <a href="https://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2022/reversing-climate-change-with-geoengineering/">geo-engineering</a>, <a href="https://ftedit.ft.com/Ju3k/mvo1y8xl">space-based solar power</a> or another technology unimaginable today. At least if the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/power-grid-demand-electric-vehicles-1.6440595">electric grid is updated accordingly</a>. </p>
<p>This is something that governments can either hinder or facilitate. Other useful measures include investing in scientific research, as well as science, engineering and business education, and ensuring innovative firms can receive financing by cultivating a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-111914-041825">well-developed financial sector</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nuclear-fusion-breakthrough-decades-of-research-are-still-needed-before-fusion-can-be-used-as-clean-energy-196758">Nuclear fusion breakthrough: Decades of research are still needed before fusion can be used as clean energy</a>
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<p>Likewise, mechanisms such as carbon taxation may be useful not primarily because of their direct effects on carbon emissions, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdae9">which are limited</a>, but rather because the signals that they send will spur technological innovation and the phasing-out of existing technologies. Through their words and actions, governments can help <a href="https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231000">shape the direction of technological innovation</a>. </p>
<p>To fight climate change and other challenges, the world needs space and support for scientists who will revolutionize the technological environment and more entrepreneurs and financiers to help these technologies reach their full potential.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217251/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pierre Chaigneau receives funding from SSHRC. </span></em></p>We look to politicians to provide climate change solutions, but there is only so much they can do. Beyond regulation, governments should remember the key role they play in promoting innovation.Pierre Chaigneau, Associate Professor at the Smith School of Business, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2094202023-07-11T16:37:32Z2023-07-11T16:37:32ZDRC has one of the fastest growing populations in the world – why this isn’t good news<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536580/original/file-20230710-16123-co1r02.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The demographic profile of a country matters because it sets its development pace – it creates opportunities and presents risks. For many developing countries, the challenge is to manage a demographic profile that puts pressure on particular cohorts of people. One country that needs to manage this challenge is the Democratic Republic of Congo. Jacques Emina, who has <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jacques-Emina">studied demography</a> in the country for the last two decades, unpacks the numbers.</em> </p>
<h2>What are the DRC’s demographic challenges? What’s driving them?</h2>
<p>With <a href="https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/COD/democratic-republic-of-congo/population">102 million</a> people in 2023, the Democratic Republic of Congo is the <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-in-africa">fourth most populous country in Africa</a> after Nigeria, Ethiopia and Egypt. It’s the <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/">15th most populous</a> country in the world. </p>
<p>It’s estimated that by 2050, the DRC will have <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf#page=9">215 million people</a> and join the world’s 10 most populated countries. This isn’t so surprising, given the size of the country: <a href="https://ins.cd/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ANNUAIRE-STATISTIQUE-2020.pdf#page=30">2.3 million square kilometres</a>, making it the second-largest country in Africa (behind Algeria).</p>
<p>The country’s population reflects higher-than-average growth compared to other countries on the continent. The DRC’s population grew by <a href="https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/COD/democratic-republic-of-congo/population-growth-rate">3.3% in 2022</a>. The continent’s average was <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf#page=17">2.5%</a>. The average world population growth rate was <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf#page=17">0.8% in 2022</a>. </p>
<p>The DRC’s growing population has serious consequences for the wellbeing of its people. Without policies that take account of the country’s demographic profile – a growing population and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Republic-of-the-Congo/Demographic-trends">a very high number of young people versus working age people</a> – social conditions like poverty and hunger will increase.</p>
<p>There are two main reasons for the high population growth: a decrease in deaths and a high number of births. </p>
<p>Over the past decades, the DRC has seen a consistent drop in <a href="https://data.unicef.org/country/cod/">under-five mortality</a>, though this is still relatively high compared to the world average. In 1995, under-five mortality was estimated at 175 deaths per 1,000 births. This dropped to 87 deaths per 1,000 births in 2018. In the same year the <a href="https://data.unicef.org/topic/child-survival/under-five-mortality/">global under-five mortality rate</a> stood at 40 deaths per 1,000 births.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/democratic-republic-of-the-congo-demographics/#life-exp">Life expectancy in the DRC</a> has also increased from 49 years in 1995 to 62 years in 2023. The current global life expectancy is <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/life-expectancy/">73 years</a>.</p>
<p>When it comes to numbers of births, Congolese women average <a href="https://www.prb.org/international/indicator/fertility/table">6.2 babies</a> in their lifetimes. This is four births more than the global average of 2.3 babies. </p>
<p>The DRC’s fertility rate is driven by four major factors.</p>
<p>Firstly, cultural values encourage people to have children. Large families are celebrated. The country’s most recent <a href="https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/sr218/sr218.e.pdf">demographic and health survey</a> found that Congolese women on average wanted <a href="https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/sr218/sr218.e.pdf#page=6">six children</a>; men wanted seven. </p>
<p>Secondly, an early start to childbearing means more years of giving birth. <a href="https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/sr218/sr218.e.pdf#page=6">More than 30% of girls</a> in the DRC are married before they turn 18. About a quarter of young women give birth by their 18th birthday compared to <a href="https://data.unicef.org/topic/child-health/adolescent-health/">14% worldwide</a>. And <a href="https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/sr218/sr218.e.pdf#page=5">27%</a> of adolescent Congolese girls aged 15-19 have children. </p>
<p>Thirdly, <a href="https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/sr218/sr218.e.pdf#page=7">very few women use contraception</a> in the DRC. The percentage of women of reproductive age who use an effective form of modern contraception was estimated at around <a href="https://www.unicef.org/drcongo/media/3646/file/COD-MICS-Palu-2018.pdf#page=107">7% in 2018</a>. This was up from 4% in 2007. </p>
<p>The fourth factor driving population growth is the absence of a national population policy. This typically includes a set of measures designed to influence population dynamics. </p>
<h2>What impact is this having?</h2>
<p>The DRC’s galloping demography has several implications.</p>
<p>The first is a high dependency ratio. This is when there are far more economically dependent people than economically active ones because of the demographic age profile of the country. The economically active population faces a greater burden to support economically dependent people, particularly children. Children under the age of 15 account for <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Republic-of-the-Congo/Demographic-trends">41.6%</a> of the DRC’s total population. This indicates that employed people aged 15-64 bear a heavy burden amid <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/drc/overview">low incomes</a>. </p>
<p>The country also faces significant planning challenges. <a href="https://www.unicef.org/drcongo/en/what-we-do/education">School attendance rates</a> increased from 52% in 2001 to 78% in 2018. Nevertheless, <a href="https://www.unicef.org/drcongo/en/what-we-do/education">7.6 million children aged 5-17 are still out of school</a>. </p>
<p>The DRC lags behind in other key human development measures.</p>
<ul>
<li><p>It’s among the five poorest nations in the world. In 2022, <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/drc/overview">62% of Congolese (60 million people)</a> lived under the poverty line (less than US$2.15 a day). About one in six people living in extreme poverty in sub-Saharan Africa lives in the DRC. </p></li>
<li><p>The country has faced <a href="https://theconversation.com/military-interventions-have-failed-to-end-drcs-conflict-whats-gone-wrong-205586">political unrest and armed conflicts</a> for six decades. The <a href="https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/GPI-2023-Web.pdf">2023 Global Peace Index</a> – which measures the relative peacefulness of nations and regions – lists the DRC as <a href="https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/GPI-2023-Web.pdf#page=11">one of the least peaceful countries</a> in the world after Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria and South Sudan.</p></li>
<li><p>The country has one of the <a href="https://data.unicef.org/topic/maternal-health/maternal-mortality/">world’s highest maternal mortality ratios</a> at 547 deaths per 100,000 live births. The global average is 223 deaths per 100,000 live births. </p></li>
<li><p>It’s one of the world’s hungriest countries. Its <a href="https://www.globalhungerindex.org/">Global Hunger Index</a> score – which measures and tracks levels of hunger globally – stands at <a href="https://www.globalhungerindex.org/drc.html">37.8</a>, which is tagged as “alarming”. </p></li>
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<h2>What interventions are needed?</h2>
<p>A country’s population profile can offer opportunities, or what’s known as a demographic dividend. This is when a high percentage of people are young and there are jobs for them. </p>
<p>But the DRC is missing out on this opportunity and will continue to do so unless it:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>invests in human capital by improving its education and health systems. Most Congolese are <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/can-t-afford-be-sick-assessing-cost-ill-health-north-kivu-eastern">paying out of their own pockets</a> for healthcare. Education is free, but the <a href="https://2017-2020.usaid.gov/democratic-republic-congo/education">system is weak</a> due to low budget allocations.</p></li>
<li><p>designs a population policy to guide population dynamics. This would include policies on birth, migration and where people live. These should be linked to an integrated national development policy.</p></li>
<li><p>makes progress on gender equality. This should include increasing the enrolment of girls in high schools, discouraging child marriage and enabling young mothers to attend school.</p></li>
<li><p>improves governance and tackles corruption to promote investment in education, health and employment.</p></li>
<li><p>creates data systems that can underpin evidence-based policies.</p></li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209420/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jacques Emina does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Without policies that take account of a growing population with few working-age people, DRC risks seeing an increase in poverty and hunger.Jacques Emina, Professor of population and development studies, University of Kinshasa Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2095102023-07-11T15:02:56Z2023-07-11T15:02:56ZGhana’s population is young and rapidly urbanising - policies need to match the data<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536735/original/file-20230711-19-sl30n6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ghana’s population can be described as rapidly urbanising and young</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons/Flickr</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Ghana’s population has reached 30.8 million according to the <a href="https://census2021.statsghana.gov.gh/presspage.php?readmorenews=MTQ1MTUyODEyMC43MDc1&Press-Release-on-Provisional-Results">2021 population census</a>. This is a 6.1 million increase from the 24.7 million recorded in 2010. Understanding population trends is important to inform development policies – but Ghana has struggled to design policies aligned to available data. Demographer Donatus Yaw Atiglo unpacks the key issues facing Ghana’s growing population.</em></p>
<h2>What is the age makeup of Ghana’s population?</h2>
<p>It is important to look at the trends in the changing population structure. </p>
<p>Ghana’s population can be described as rapidly urbanising and youthful. Over the past five censuses, we see the structure of the population pyramid change from predominantly children under 15 to young people (aged 15-35 years). </p>
<p>The age composition of Ghana’s <a href="https://census2021.statsghana.gov.gh/presspage.php?readmorenews=MTQ1MTUyODEyMC43MDc1&Press-Release-on-Provisional-Results">31 million</a> people, based on 2021 <a href="https://census2021.statsghana.gov.gh/presspage.php?readmorenews=MTQ1MTUyODEyMC43MDc1&Press-Release-on-Provisional-Results">census data</a>, indicates that about 35% are children (0-14 years), 38% young people (15-35 years), and about 4% are in the older population (65+). </p>
<p>A <a href="https://census2021.statsghana.gov.gh/gssmain/fileUpload/reportthemelist/Volume%203%20Highlights.pdf">higher concentration</a> (about 60%) of young people are in urban areas. This creates a pool of valuable labour, vibrant social participation as well as sources of creativity and innovation.</p>
<p>Overall, 60% are in the <a href="https://census2021.statsghana.gov.gh/gssmain/fileUpload/reportthemelist/Volume%203%20Highlights.pdf">working age population</a>. This suggests that there are fewer people in the dependent age groups relative to the working ages.</p>
<p>There is also a growing number of the elderly aged 65 and above, with implications for social security and healthcare. </p>
<p>The factor driving the change in the demographic profile is that women are having fewer children. The total fertility rate, which is the average number of children a woman has by the time she completes childbearing, assuming age-specific rates are held constant, has <a href="https://knoema.com/atlas/Ghana/Fertility-rate">declined </a>from about 6.4 births per woman in 1988 to 3.8 in 2021.</p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://statsghana.gov.gh/">Ghana Statistical Service</a>, the country’s population will double within 33 years. And by 2050, the population of Ghana will be over 50 million. Population growth implies boundless opportunities for economic and social development. But it also presents significant challenges and barriers to sustainable development, where economic and environmental resources cannot match population growth.</p>
<h2>Which age cohorts present the biggest challenges?</h2>
<p>Population scientists have associated the demographic dividend with growth in the working population relative to children and the elderly. The logic is that a lower dependency ratio – in other words a high number of people of working age versus very young and very old people – carries economic growth potential. Dependent age groups (children under 15 years and old people 65 years and above) have traditionally been considered a burdensome population. </p>
<p>But cashing in on the demographic dividend depends on the quality of human resources and the opportunities for the working population. Without skills and jobs, having a large proportion of young people could be a liability, not an asset. They need education, skills, healthcare and employment. </p>
<p>In Ghana the size of this cohort should be bringing a demographic dividend. But it isn’t because there is a growing proportion that isn’t in education, employment or training. </p>
<p>Another pressure point is growing urbanisation. Three out of five people live in an urban area, up from about <a href="https://census2021.statsghana.gov.gh/gssmain/fileUpload/reportthemelist/Volume%203%20Highlights.pdf">one out of every two in 2010</a> . This urban expansion has been largely unregulated, leading to a rise in urban poverty as well as overstretched infrastructure and social amenities. Over a quarter of urban residents live in <a href="https://statsghana.gov.gh/gssmain/fileUpload/pressrelease/Multidimensional%20Poverty%20Ghana_Report.pdf">multidimensional poverty</a>. </p>
<p>Urban poverty, slum conditions, drug abuse, crime and unwanted pregnancies are all potential consequences of the large proportion of youth not in employment, education or training. </p>
<p>Older people are also a critical group that requires attention. People are living longer, with life expectancy at birth rising from 58 years in 2000 to <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?locations=GH">65 years by 2020</a>. Older people have more health challenges and are therefore an increasing draw on a strained social security and health care systems.</p>
<h2>How aligned are Ghana’s policies towards its population challenges?</h2>
<p>Ghana has development policies on paper relating to health, education and gender. But the current mid- and long-term development policies of the country don’t consider population variables and the challenges they portend. </p>
<p>It behoves governments to consider population variables to identify future opportunities and challenges and guide resource allocation towards meeting the needs of the population. </p>
<p>Ghana failed to attain the main targets of the <a href="https://new-ndpc-static1.s3.amazonaws.com/pubication/Population+Policy_1994.pdf">1994 Population Policy</a>. These included reducing the total fertility rate to 3.0, increasing life expectancy to 70 and increasing the proportion of women with secondary plus education to 80% by 2020. </p>
<p>Ghana also failed to achieve key targets of the <a href="https://www.afdb.org/en/topics-and-sectors/topics/millennium-development-goals-mdgs">Millennium Development Goals</a>. These included eradicating extreme poverty and hunger, and reducing under-five mortality by two thirds and maternal mortality by three-quarters <a href="https://www2.statsghana.gov.gh/docfiles/2010phc/MDG%20report%20(24-10-13).pdf">between 1990 and 2015</a>. </p>
<p>But there is the potential to attain some targets of the <a href="https://www.undp.org/sustainable-development-goals/no-poverty?gclid=CjwKCAjw2K6lBhBXEiwA5RjtCQpQou19mHdshMyfj8isK1Vtn7iMvWwk0zgcCcZUb2yDvwUic_-JjxoCYscQAvD_BwE">Sustainable Development Goals</a> <a href="https://ghana.un.org/sites/default/files/2022-08/VNR_2022_Report_c5cXm4Q.pdf">related to equitable access to drinking water services, universal access to electricity by 2030</a>. </p>
<p>Ghana has made significant gains in improving access to healthcare, education, water and sanitation. This has reduced deaths from infectious diseases and improved life expectancy. </p>
<p>But there is more to be done to improve quality of life, attain the sustainable development goals related to poverty, food security, health and environment, and prepare the country for the demographic dividend. For instance, increased secondary school enrolment and completion have not been matched by employment and tertiary education opportunities. </p>
<p>In addition, previous policies have not prepared the country to deal with the double burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases.</p>
<h2>What are the key areas to focus on for development?</h2>
<p>Ghana needs to consider the different needs of different population groups. </p>
<p>When it comes to young people, it needs to make significant progress in relevant education and training, with matching employment opportunities. This matters for two reasons: so that fewer educated youth are unemployed or underemployed, and so that they contribute to social security. </p>
<p>The elderly need healthcare as they age. The burden of healthcare on their caregivers must be considered. We need to invest in geriatric care services to ensure quality of life for the ageing population. </p>
<p>All this requires the use of population data and integration of population variables into sustainable development planning to reduce inequalities and improve population well-being.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209510/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>D. Yaw Atiglo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ghana’s implementation of key population policies has not been consistent.D. Yaw Atiglo, Research Fellow, University of GhanaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2071072023-06-27T12:23:02Z2023-06-27T12:23:02ZSouth Korea has the lowest fertility rate in the world – and that doesn’t bode well for its economy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534163/original/file-20230626-5418-k0jzlq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C11%2C7842%2C4032&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An aging population, a tired economy.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-elderly-lady-rests-near-her-street-stall-as-pedestrians-news-photo/1251981087?adppopup=true">Anthony Wallace/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Around <a href="https://www.livescience.com/worlds-population-could-plummet-to-six-billion-by-the-end-of-the-century-new-study-suggests">the world</a>, nations are looking at the <a href="https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2023/06/20/what-does-a-shrinking-population-mean-for-china">prospect of shrinking</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wellness/2023/02/14/aging-boomers-more-older-americans/">aging populations</a> – but none more so than <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/22/s-korea-breaks-record-for-worlds-lowest-fertility-rate-again">South Korea</a>.</p>
<p>Over the last 60 years, South Korea has undergone the most rapid fertility decline in recorded human history. In 1960, the nation’s total fertility rate – the number of children, on average, that a woman has during her reproductive years – stood at just under six children per woman. In 2022, that figure was 0.78. South Korea is the only country in the world to register a fertility rate of <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/03/19/1163341684/south-korea-fertility-rate">less than one child per woman</a>, although others – <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/02/22/1155943055/ukraine-low-birth-rate-russia-war">Ukraine</a>, <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-low-fertility-rate-population-decline-by-yi-fuxian-2023-02">China</a> and <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/births-in-spain-drop-to-lowest-level-on-record/2614667">Spain</a> – are close.</p>
<p><iframe id="FNa7q" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/FNa7q/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=jAfhO2YAAAAJ&hl=en">a demographer</a> who over the past four decades has conducted extensive research on Asian populations, I know that this prolonged and steep decline will have huge impacts on South Korea. It may <a href="https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20230102000602">slow down economic growth</a>, contributing to a shift that will see the country <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/06/29/south-korea-s-demographic-crisis-is-challenging-its-national-story-pub-84820">end up less rich and with a smaller population</a>.</p>
<h2>Older, poorer, more dependent</h2>
<p>Countries need a total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman to replace their population, when the effects of immigration and emigration aren’t considered. And South Korea’s fertility rate has been consistently below that number since 1984, when it dropped to 1.93, from 2.17 the year before.</p>
<p>What makes the South Korean fertility rate decline more astonishing is the relatively short period in which it has occurred.</p>
<p>Back in 1800, the U.S. total fertility rate was <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1033027/fertility-rate-us-1800-2020/">well over 6.0</a>. But it took the U.S. around 170 years to consistently drop below the replacement level. Moreover, in the little over 60 years in which South Korea’s fertility rate fell from 6.0 to 0.8, the U.S. saw a more gradual decline from 3.0 to 1.7.</p>
<p>Fertility decline can have a positive effect in certain circumstances, via something demographers refer to as “<a href="https://www.prb.org/resources/fact-sheet-attaining-the-demographic-dividend/">the demographic dividend</a>.” This dividend refers to accelerated increases in a country’s economy that follow a decline in birth rates and subsequent changes in its age composition that result in more working-age people and fewer dependent young children and elderly people.</p>
<p>And that is what happened in South Korea – a decline in fertility helped convert South Korea from a very poor country <a href="https://www.hks.harvard.edu/publications/miracle-maturity-growth-korean-economy">to a very rich one</a>.</p>
<h2>Behind the economic miracle</h2>
<p>South Korea’s fertility decline began in the early 1960s when the government adopted an <a href="https://countrystudies.us/south-korea/47.htm">economic planning program</a> and a <a href="https://doi.org//10.3349/ymj.1971.12.1.55">population and family planning program</a>.</p>
<p>By that time, South Korea was languishing, having seen its <a href="https://ciaotest.cc.columbia.edu/journals/ijoks/v5i1/f_0013337_10833.pdf">economy and society destroyed</a> by the Korean War of 1950 to 1953. Indeed by the late-1950s, South Korea was one of the poorest countries in the world. In 1961, its annual per capita income <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198796954.003.0006">was only about US$82</a>. </p>
<p>But dramatic increases in economic growth began in 1962, when the South Korean government introduced a five-year economic development plan. </p>
<p>Crucially, the government also introduced a population planning program in a bid to bring down the nation’s fertility rate. This included a goal of getting <a href="https://doi.org//10.3349/ymj.1971.12.1.55">45% of married couples</a> to use contraception – until then, very few Koreans used contraception.</p>
<p>This further contributed to the fertility reduction, as many couples realized that having fewer children would often lead to improvements in family living standards. </p>
<p>Both the economic and family planning programs were instrumental in moving South Korea from one with a high fertility rate to one with a low fertility rate.</p>
<p>As a result, the country’s dependent population – the young and the elderly – grew smaller in relation to its working-age population.</p>
<p>The demographic change kick-started economic growth that continued well into the mid-1990s. Increases in productivity, combined with an increasing labor force and a gradual reduction of unemployment, produced average annual growth rates in gross domestic product <a href="https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/KOR/south-korea/gnp-gross-national-product">of between 6% and 10% for many years</a>.</p>
<p>South Korea today is <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?most_recent_value_desc=true">one of the richest countries</a>
in the world with a <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=KR">per capita income of $35,000</a>.</p>
<h2>Losing people every year</h2>
<p>Much of this transformation of South Korea from a poor country to a rich country has been due to the demographic dividend realized during the country’s fertility decline. But the demographic dividend only works in the short term. Long-term fertility declines are often <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2022/12/the-long-term-decline-in-fertility-and-what-it-means-for-state-budgets">disastrous for a nation’s economy</a>. </p>
<p>With an extremely low fertility rate of 0.78, South Korea is losing population each year and experiencing more deaths than births. The once-vibrant nation is on the way to becoming a country with lots of elderly people and fewer workers.</p>
<p>The Korean Statistical Office reported recently that the <a href="https://kosis.kr/statHtml/statHtml.do?orgId=101&tblId=DT_1B8000F&language=en">country lost population</a> in the past three years: It was down by 32,611 people in 2020, 57,118 in 2021 and 123,800 in 2022.</p>
<p>If this trend continues, and if the country doesn’t welcome millions of immigrants, South Korea’s present population of 51 million <a href="https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/biz/2023/06/602_335593.html">will drop to under 38 million</a> in the next four or five decades.</p>
<p>And a growing proportion of the society will be over the age of 65.</p>
<p>South Korea’s population aged 65 and over comprised under 7% of the population in 2000. Today, <a href="https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/korea-south/#people-and-society">nearly 17% of South Koreans</a> are older people.</p>
<p>The older people population is projected to be 20% of the country by 2025 and could reach an unprecedented and astoundingly high 46% in 2067. South Korea’s working-age population will then be smaller in size than its population of people over the age of 65.</p>
<p>In a bid to avert a demographic nightmare, the South Korean government is <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/south-korea-families-770-month-183500253.html">providing financial incentives</a> for couples to have children and is boosting the monthly allowance already in place for parents. President Yoon Suk Yeol has also <a href="https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2023/03/28/national/politics/Korea-birth-rate-Yoon-Suk-Yeol/20230328184849297.html">established a new government team</a> to establish policies to increase the birth rate.</p>
<p>But to date, programs to increase the low fertility rate have had little effect. Since 2006, the South Korean government has already <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/03/asia/south-korea-worlds-lowest-fertility-rate-intl-hnk-dst/index.html">spent over $200 billion</a> in programs to increase the birth rate, with virtually no impact.</p>
<h2>Opening the trapdoor</h2>
<p>The South Korean fertility rate has not increased in the past 16 years. Rather, it has continued to decrease. This is due to what demographers refer to as the “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23025482">low-fertility trap</a>.” The principle, set forth by demographers in the early 2000s, states that once a country’s fertility rate drops below 1.5 or 1.4, it is difficult – if not impossible – to increase it significantly. </p>
<p>South Korea, along with many other countries – including France, Australia and Russia – have developed policies to encourage fertility rate increases, but with little to no success. </p>
<p>The only real way for South Korea to turn this around would be to rely heavily on immigration.</p>
<p>Migrants are <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2020/06/19/blog-weo-chapter4-migration-to-advanced-economies-can-raise-growth">typically young and productive</a> and usually have more children than the native-born population. But South Korea has a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/02/16/upshot/comparing-immigration-policies-across-countries.html">very restrictive immigration policy</a> with no path for immigrants to become citizens or permanent residents unless they marry South Koreans.</p>
<p>Indeed, the foreign-born population in 2022 was just over 1.6 million, which is around <a href="https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20220414000692">3.1% of the population</a>. In contrast, the U.S. has always relied on immigration to bolster its working population, with foreign-born residents now <a href="https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/immigrants-in-the-united-states">comprising over 14%</a> of the population.</p>
<p>For immigration to offset South Korea’s declining fertility rate, the number of foreign workers would likely need to rise almost tenfold.</p>
<p>Without that, South Korea’s demographic destiny will have the nation continuing to lose population every year and becoming one of the oldest – if not the oldest – country in the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207107/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dudley L. Poston Jr. does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>South Korea’s fertility rate fell below the level needed to sustain a population in the mid-1980s – and it never recovered. It is now below one child per woman during her reproductive years.Dudley L. Poston Jr., Professor of Sociology, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2057882023-06-05T14:23:25Z2023-06-05T14:23:25ZCensus data in West Africa is badly out of date: 5 reasons fresh population statistics are crucial<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529068/original/file-20230530-21-bktyo0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Guineans living in Ivory Coast wait for their turn during a census on March 26, 2010 in Adjame, a popular district in Abidjan. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">SIA Kambou/AFP via Getty images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>West Africa, an area composed of 16 countries, is one of the fastest growing regions in the world. The region has a population of over <a href="https://www.oecd.org/swac-expo-milano/about/westafrica/#:%7E:text=%E2%80%8CHome%20to%20some%20350%20million,rapidly%20growing%20population%20are%20enormous.">350 million</a>, a five-fold increase since 1950 when 73 million people lived there. </p>
<p>More than half of the population is <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/world/adolescents-and-youth-report-west-and-central-africa">under the age of 25</a>.
The region’s urban population <a href="https://eros.usgs.gov/westafrica/population">rose</a> from 8.3% of the total in 1950 to almost 44% in 2015. </p>
<p>Population size, composition and distribution all have implications for what a society needs - including food, water, energy and infrastructure – and how to provide it. </p>
<p>Countries in West Africa have many pressing needs. Some of the reasons are insecurity, poor governance, high military spending and forgone investment. </p>
<p>Forces such as climate change may add pressure, causing food insecurity, economic disruption and extreme harms from floods and droughts. The region is also shifting towards renewable and green energy, creating new job opportunities. </p>
<p>With all these development challenges and opportunities, and limited resources, it’s vital to know what to focus on. Census data is useful for making effective policy plans and tracking progress to reach goals.</p>
<p>The census is a nationally representative survey, and a fundamental tool to collect information on each country’s population. A trained enumerator visits the home to collect information on each person living there, including their genders, ages, marital status, occupations, languages spoken, and other key pieces of basic information.</p>
<p>Without census data, countries are not able to measure or understand patterns of population growth or urbanisation.</p>
<p>The more detailed, up to date, and high quality the data, the better informed policies and programmes can be. Census data that can be disaggregated by key characteristics (broken down into more specific parts) can draw attention to disparities and inequalities. </p>
<p>And routine data allows countries to measure their success on key indicators such as the Sustainable Development Goals. </p>
<p>Many countries in west Africa, however, do not have up to date census surveys. For example the most recent census data for Benin, Cape Verde, The Gambia, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria and Senegal is over 10 years old. Normally these are done every 10 years.</p>
<p>Conducting a census is extremely challenging. It is costly and requires a large staff with training. It involves the participation of large numbers of people. There can be concerns about privacy or questions of a sensitive nature (such as ethnicity). Political instability and conflict can also make <a href="https://www.unfpa.org/census#readmore-expand">enumeration challenging</a>. </p>
<p>As a public health and demography <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jessie-pinchoff-1216414">expert</a> at the <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/population-council-3531">Population Council</a>, which generates <a href="https://popcouncil.org/basic_page/adolescent-data-hub/">adolescent</a> and <a href="https://cdm.popcouncil.org/">demographic modelling</a> data across west Africa, I’ve listed five reasons why the region needs up to date censuses.</p>
<h2>Five ways a census helps a country</h2>
<p><strong>Allocation of resources and political power:</strong> With growing populations and economies, fresh census data helps governments allocate resources, target services, plan infrastructure projects, and direct investments. </p>
<p>To ensure that people have fair access to what they need, it’s useful to have information about their age, income and other characteristics. This information is also used to create geographic areas containing around the same number of people, so that all voters are represented.</p>
<p><strong>Economic development:</strong> The census asks households for information about their income, employment and demographic characteristics such as age or sex. This can help governments understand patterns of economic growth and how to stoke economic development. The private sector and governments need information like this for decisions about investment.</p>
<p><strong>Social welfare:</strong> Census data provides a better understanding of the needs of different groups in society, such as the elderly, children, and people with disabilities. It informs the design of social welfare programmes that target those who are most in need. </p>
<p>For example, only <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/mali/inclusion-persons-disabilities-west-africa-ecowas-advocates-signature-and-ratification-african-union-protocol-persons-disabilities-all-its-member-states">three countries</a> out of 15 in the regional body ECOWAS have ratified the African Union’s protocol on disability inclusion. </p>
<p><strong>Disaster response and risk reduction:</strong> Census data is also used in disaster planning, response and risk reduction efforts. It provides information on population density, vulnerability and infrastructure, which is vital in identifying areas that are at risk during extreme events such as <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/warming-worsened-west-africa-floods-that-killed-800-people/">floods</a>. It can also indicate where vulnerable groups, such as the elderly or people with disabilities, may be harmed.</p>
<p><strong>Research to inform policies:</strong> High quality, up to date, and routine census data is critical for informing research to generate the evidence that policies and programmes are based on. </p>
<p>For example, the region could benefit from research on how to minimise schooling disruptions due to climate, target areas with low enrolment rates, and use technology to advance education outcomes. </p>
<p>Health research is another critical area, to protect children and their families and build hospitals and facilities where they are most needed. </p>
<p>The census can identify burden of disease, patterns of sickness and death and the distribution of risk factors. Census data can uncover disparities in health, education, social and economic programming.</p>
<h2>Challenging but worth it</h2>
<p>Accurate and timely census data is critical for west Africa to achieve its potential and mark progress. Conducting a census takes time, money and people, and it can be challenging to collect accurate data in certain settings. </p>
<p>However, the census is a critical tool to allow countries to make informed decisions about how best to allocate resources, plan for the future, and improve the lives of their citizens, including the rising generation of young people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205788/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jessie Pinchoff does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many countries in West Africa do not have up to date census surveys.Jessie Pinchoff, Associate researcher, Population CouncilLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2035422023-04-11T05:50:36Z2023-04-11T05:50:36ZWhat made rents soar? It might have been COVID, and pairing off<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520187/original/file-20230411-16-4z7ae3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C533%2C3009%2C1575&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>So, you think you know why rents climbed.</p>
<p>You probably think was skyrocketing interest rates and a tsunami of migration.</p>
<p>It’s true that interest rates have jumped more over the past year than at any time on record, and it’s true that migration has roared back – in the six months to September 2022 (the latest month for which we’ve official figures) arrivals exceeded departures by <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/sep-2022">170,000</a>.</p>
<p>But here’s the thing. Advertised rents began climbing sharply in <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/insights/where-rents-prices-are-really-skyrocketing-in-some-cases-by-600-a-week-more/">late 2021</a> – six months before the Reserve Bank began pushing up interest rates, and at a time <a href="https://theconversation.com/top-economists-expect-rba-to-hold-rates-low-in-2022-as-real-wages-fall-175054">when it was forecast not to</a>.</p>
<p>And “net migration” was <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/sep-2021">negative</a> back when rents were taking off – meaning the number of arrivals didn’t even match the number of departures.</p>
<h2>It’s supply and demand</h2>
<p>Something else made rents move.</p>
<p>As it happens, there’s no particular reason to think interest rates would have quickly affected rents even if they had been climbing. If higher rates force some landlords to sell, and they sell to other landlords, the number of properties for rent won’t change. If those landlords sell to owner occupiers who would otherwise rent, they cut both the number of rental properties and the number of renters.</p>
<p>What matters for rents, as for any price, is the demand for and the supply of the product being priced. More demand (more renters wanting properties) and the price climbs. More supply (more properties available for rent) and the price falls.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/1-billion-per-year-or-less-could-halve-rental-housing-stress-146397">$1 billion per year (or less) could halve rental housing stress</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>On the face of it, neither demand nor supply was changing much during COVID as rents started climbing. Australia’s population was growing more slowly than at any time <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2023/sp-gov-2023-04-05.html">in modern history</a>. And, as best as we can tell, the number of properties available for rent was climbing, <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/building-and-construction/building-activity-australia/latest-release">albeit weakly</a>.</p>
<p>What did change during COVID, according to the research department of the Reserve Bank, was the <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2023/mar/renters-rent-inflation-and-renter-stress.html">average number of people per household</a>.</p>
<p>The change doesn’t sound big – the average fell from a bit above 2.6 residents per household to a bit below 2.55 – but applied to millions of households it meant about <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2022/sp-ag-2022-05-25.html">140,000</a> more houses and apartments were needed than would have been.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Average household size (capital cities)</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520162/original/file-20230411-16-x7c3sg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520162/original/file-20230411-16-x7c3sg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520162/original/file-20230411-16-x7c3sg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520162/original/file-20230411-16-x7c3sg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520162/original/file-20230411-16-x7c3sg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520162/original/file-20230411-16-x7c3sg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520162/original/file-20230411-16-x7c3sg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520162/original/file-20230411-16-x7c3sg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Average number of persons usually resident in an occupied private dwelling, trend and actual.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2023/sp-gov-2023-04-05.html">RBA, ABS microdata</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>The sudden change was awfully for hard for the building industry to respond to, especially when it was laid low by COVID.</p>
<p>Why did we suddenly want to live with fewer people?</p>
<p>The head of the Bank’s economic division, Luci Ellis, thinks it was COVID itself, and lockdowns. We suddenly became more precious about sharing space.</p>
<h2>‘Love the one you’re with’</h2>
<p>Ellis says proportion of Australians living in group houses declined and stayed low. Faced with the choice of living with a large number of housemates and just one other person, perhaps a romantic partner, a lot of renters left group houses and <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2022/sp-ag-2022-05-25.html">shacked up with each other</a>.</p>
<p>As she put it last year:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>On the question of who you would rather be locked down with, at least some Australians have voted with their removalists’ van, by moving out of their share house and in with their partner.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>There’s more to it of course, but where the supply and demand for anything are roughly in balance (rents had been increasing by <a href="https://theconversation.com/rent-crisis-average-rents-are-increasing-less-than-you-might-think-189154">less than 1% per year</a> in the four years before COVID, and fell in the first year of COVID) any sudden change in either supply or demand can move prices quickly.</p>
<h2>Advertised rents aren’t typical …</h2>
<p>Having said that, for most renters prices are still moving slowly. Advertised capital city rents are up <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/insights/where-rents-prices-are-really-skyrocketing-in-some-cases-by-600-a-week-more/">13%</a> over the past year, and advertised regional rates up 9%. But average rents (the average of what all renters pay) are up only 4.8%. </p>
<p>The rents charged to ongoing tenants climb <a href="https://theconversation.com/rent-crisis-average-rents-are-increasing-less-than-you-might-think-189154">much more slowly</a> than the rents charged to new tenants, in part because landlords often like their tenants, and in part because for the first year renters are usually on fixed contracts.</p>
<p>But over time as renters move home, and landlords become less squeamish, more and more renters tend to pay the rents advertised. It makes the increase in advertised rents an unwelcome sign of what’s to come.</p>
<h2>… but they’re a sign of rents ahead</h2>
<p>And it might get worse. Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe says population growth is set to climb to <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2023/sp-gov-2023-04-05.html">2%</a> – near the peak reached during the resources boom.</p>
<p>We won’t be able to build houses anything like that fast. Lowe says the last time Australia’s population surged it took about <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2023/sp-gov-2023-04-05.html">five years</a> for housing supply to fully respond to housing demand.</p>
<p>We’ve ways of dealing with it of course. One is to re-embrace group homes, another is to delay moving out of our partents’ homes, or to move back in.</p>
<p>But even if this does happen, Lowe says, with typical understatement, that rent inflation – ultra-low before COVID – is likely to stay “quite high” for some time.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rent-crisis-average-rents-are-increasing-less-than-you-might-think-189154">Rent crisis? Average rents are increasing less than you might think</a>
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</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203542/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Martin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>During lockdowns renters ‘voted with removalists vans’, moving out of share houses and in with each other.Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1963882023-03-02T19:09:06Z2023-03-02T19:09:06ZThinking of having a baby as the planet collapses? First, ask yourself 5 big ethical questions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513061/original/file-20230302-14-deh1mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C0%2C3734%2C2500&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Do you want to have a baby? But, on a planet rocked by the climate crisis, ecosystem collapse, famine and poverty, is having one just adding to the problem – and therefore unethical?</p>
<p>I am a PhD Candidate at Monash Bioethics Centre, and I research the ethics of procreation in a time of climate change. I’ve found there’s no simple “yes” or “no” answer to whether we should produce more children when Earth is in such dire straits. </p>
<p>People who want to have children are faced with a dilemma. Creating a child who will be responsible for high emissions over their lifetime requires others to stay in poverty (if the planet is to operate within its physical limits). This, it can easily be argued, furthers injustice and inequality. </p>
<p>But many of us want to have children – doing so can be one of the most meaningful things we do with our life. </p>
<p>What should we do? Ethics can provide an answer. It shows there is a moral obligation to consider the effects of child-bearing without obliging people to not have children as a result.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="man and women lie on bed with baby" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513065/original/file-20230302-17-plcira.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513065/original/file-20230302-17-plcira.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513065/original/file-20230302-17-plcira.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513065/original/file-20230302-17-plcira.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513065/original/file-20230302-17-plcira.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513065/original/file-20230302-17-plcira.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513065/original/file-20230302-17-plcira.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Having a child can be one of the most meaningful things we do with our life. But is it ethical in these challenging times?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Natacha Pisarenko/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What is overpopulation?</h2>
<p>Many people argue the world has an overpopulation problem. Overpopulation <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12281798/">has been defined</a> as the state where there are more people than can live on Earth in comfort, happiness, and health and still leave the world a fit place for future generations.</p>
<p>But this definition is open to interpretation. Overpopulation is not just about numbers, but also values. If people in affluent countries value their lifestyles – and the opportunity for others to have the same lifestyle – then the world is overpopulated.</p>
<p>I live in inner-city Melbourne. When I calculate my <a href="https://www.footprintcalculator.org/home/en">ecological footprint</a>, it’s confronting to discover we would need about four Earths for everyone to live like me. If everyone lived like the average American, we would need more than five Earths.</p>
<p>Indeed, estimates by <a href="https://www.academia.edu/10991141/Will_Limited_Land_Water_and_Energy_Control_Human_Population_Numbers_in_the_Future">ecologists</a> and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356572845_Climate_ethics_and_population_policy_A_review_of_recent_philosophical_work">philosophers</a> show a person born in the developed world can enjoy their lifestyle only if there are no more than two or three billion people on the planet. There are now more than <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/">eight billion</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-we-should-be-wary-of-blaming-overpopulation-for-the-climate-crisis-130709">Why we should be wary of blaming 'overpopulation' for the climate crisis</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="people walking on a crowded street" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364900/original/file-20201022-18-iwc4eu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364900/original/file-20201022-18-iwc4eu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364900/original/file-20201022-18-iwc4eu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364900/original/file-20201022-18-iwc4eu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364900/original/file-20201022-18-iwc4eu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364900/original/file-20201022-18-iwc4eu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364900/original/file-20201022-18-iwc4eu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many people argue the world has an overpopulation problem.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>So what do we do?</h2>
<p>We could address the dilemma by decreasing per capita emissions of greenhouse gases. However, this on its own won’t be sufficient. </p>
<p>Why? First, it’s difficult to reduce emissions at the speed required to mitigate catastrophic climate change. The goal of the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a> is to prevent the world from warming by 2°C from pre-industrial levels. To achieve this goal, <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aah3443">we must</a> halve emissions by 2030, halve them again by 2040, and again by 2050. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, we are <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/glasgows-2030-credibility-gap-net-zeros-lip-service-to-climate-action/">not on track</a> to achieve the Paris goals. This failure will cause significant suffering and <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">millions of deaths</a>. And the most disadvantaged people will be affected first and most severely. This is unjust.</p>
<p>Second, developing countries must be allowed to increase their emissions to <a href="https://www.ecologicalcitizen.net/pdfs/epub-048.pdf">escape poverty</a>. People in poverty consume very few resources. To stay at this low-level of consumption is dehumanising. We should be advocating for many people to consume more.</p>
<p>Third, having fewer children helps solve the injustices caused by climate damage. If global fertility rates dropped by only 0.5 births per woman, about 5.1 billion tonnes of carbon <a href="https://philpapers.org/archive/HICPEA.pdf">would be saved</a> each year by the end of the century. This would contribute to between <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1004581107">16% and 29%</a> of the emissions savings needed to avoid catastrophic climate change.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="people wade through floodwaters" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513070/original/file-20230302-19-plcira.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513070/original/file-20230302-19-plcira.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513070/original/file-20230302-19-plcira.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513070/original/file-20230302-19-plcira.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513070/original/file-20230302-19-plcira.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513070/original/file-20230302-19-plcira.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513070/original/file-20230302-19-plcira.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Having fewer children helps solve injustices caused by climate damage, such as displacement due to floods.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Zahid Hussain/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Fourth, even if the world’s average per capita emissions decrease, a growing population multiplies emissions. </p>
<p>Emissions tend to grow on a one-to-one ratio with rising populations. Between 1975 and 2009, for example, both population and emissions <a href="https://overpopulation-project.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/2010_Ryerson_TheMultiplierofEverythingElse_PostCarbonReaderSeries5221.pdf">rose by 43%</a> in the United States. Not addressing population growth means we may undo good work achieved by reducing per capita emissions.</p>
<p>And finally, we cannot address per capita emissions without addressing reproduction. The decision to not bring someone into the world is about <a href="https://www.biologicaldiversity.org/programs/population_and_sustainability/pdfs/OSUCarbonStudy.pdf">20 times more effective</a> at reducing individual emissions than the sum total of many other “green” acts we can do, such as recycling and driving less.</p>
<p>For instance, in a developed nation, having one fewer children <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7541">saves about 58 tonnes</a> of emissions per year. The next best decision someone can make to limit their emissions is to live car-free. But, this will only save about <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7541">2.4 tonnes of emissions per year</a>.</p>
<p>As ethicists have recently <a href="https://commons.pacificu.edu/work/sc/f69d70ba-8600-4198-b467-266a3435e91e">pointed out</a>, if there is any duty to reduce our per capita emissions, there is a duty to limit the amount of children we have.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bob-brown-is-right-its-time-environmentalists-talked-about-the-population-problem-148347">Bob Brown is right – it's time environmentalists talked about the population problem</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="man opens lid to recycling bin" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513074/original/file-20230302-22-hr8cj6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513074/original/file-20230302-22-hr8cj6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513074/original/file-20230302-22-hr8cj6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513074/original/file-20230302-22-hr8cj6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513074/original/file-20230302-22-hr8cj6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513074/original/file-20230302-22-hr8cj6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513074/original/file-20230302-22-hr8cj6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Not having a baby is far better for the planet than many other ‘green’ acts combined.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Ross/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Resolving the dilemma</h2>
<p>I should acknowledge here that I don’t have the lived experience of being a woman or person who can carry a child, nor do I have children yet.</p>
<p>However, I do believe the world must address overpopulation. I say this knowing it is <a href="https://teachersinstitute.yale.edu/curriculum/units/1998/7/98.07.03.x.html">not an easy or comfortable</a> topic to broach. It involves sexuality and contraception, personal rights and religion.</p>
<p>And I realise there is no way forward that can solve all injustices. </p>
<p>If people in affluent nations keep bringing children into the world, there will not be enough resources for many current and future people to live and flourish. </p>
<p>But it would also be <a href="https://www.academia.edu/27846638/Whose_Job_Is_It_to_Fight_Climate_Change_A_Response_to_Hickey_Rieder_and_Earl">unjust</a> to demand an individual give up reproducing. The freedom to decide whether to bring someone into the world is central to many people’s <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10790-021-09797-y">dignity and life’s meaning</a>.</p>
<p>And the United Nations Declaration of Human Rights <a href="https://humanrights.gov.au/our-work/commission-general/universal-declaration-human-rights-human-rights-your-fingertips-human#:%7E:text=Article%2016&text=Men%20and%20women%20of%20full,marriage%20and%20at%20its%20dissolution">recognises</a> that every man and woman has the right to found a family. </p>
<p>So the most appropriate answer is not one that seeks to eliminate injustices altogether. Rather, it should minimise injustice as much as possible.</p>
<p>Telling people not to have children, or to have fewer children, is too strong. The solution must <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/japp.12099">tread a finer line</a>. But how? By placing a moral obligation on people to consider the environmental and justice issues of bringing someone into the world.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="man and women look lovingly at baby" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513062/original/file-20230302-23-jdw7rk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513062/original/file-20230302-23-jdw7rk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513062/original/file-20230302-23-jdw7rk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513062/original/file-20230302-23-jdw7rk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513062/original/file-20230302-23-jdw7rk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513062/original/file-20230302-23-jdw7rk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513062/original/file-20230302-23-jdw7rk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We must consider the environmental and justice issues of bringing someone into the world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Five big questions</h2>
<p>For a person wanting children, this means it’s <a href="https://www.theglobaljusticenetwork.org/index.php/gjn/article/view/96/71">no longer enough</a> to only ask questions such as: can I be a good parent? Do I have the means to support a child?</p>
<p>Anyone with the means to control their fertility now has an obligation to also ask themselves the following five questions:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Will my child have a high-emissions lifestyle and will this mean others must live in poverty? If so, is this justifiable?</p></li>
<li><p>Do I have biological parenting desires - that is, the desire to parent someone who has my genes? Or do I simply have parenting desires - that is, the desire to raise someone in a loving environment according to my values, regardless of their genes? </p></li>
<li><p>Even if I might discover a strong biological connection once I have a child, could I be fulfilled in my life if I raised someone who is not biologically connected to me?</p></li>
<li><p>If I have only parenting desires, can this be <a href="https://philpapers.org/archive/RULPAG-3.pdf">satisfied in other ways</a> such as through fostering, teaching, mentoring or, if possible, adopting?</p></li>
<li><p>Does satisfying my parenting desires in other ways particularly apply to me if I already have one biological child?</p></li>
</ol>
<p>Often people who choose not to have children feel the need to explain the decision to others. The above approach would mean the reverse: requiring that people who wish to ethically bring someone into the world must themselves address difficult questions.</p>
<p>A just society values everyone being able to pursue having a child if they wish to. Yet, it also demands that everyone consider the ramifications of doing so.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196388/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Craig Stanbury does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There’s no simple “yes” or “no” answer to whether we should produce more children when Earth is in such dire straits.Craig Stanbury, PhD Candidate, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1981332023-01-22T13:33:13Z2023-01-22T13:33:13ZHas Ontario’s housing ‘plan’ been built on a foundation of evidentiary sand?<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/has-ontario-s-housing--plan--been-built-on-a-foundation-of-evidentiary-sand" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>In late 2022, the Ontario government adopted <a href="https://www.ola.org/en/legislative-business/bills/parliament-43/session-1/bill-23">Bill 23</a>, the <em>More Homes Built Faster Act</em>. The legislation made <a href="https://yourstoprotect.ca/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2022/11/Big-Tent_-Statement-on-Bill-23-and-Greebelt-Land-Removal.pdf">sweeping changes</a> to the province’s land use planning system. </p>
<p>The province also passed <a href="https://www.ola.org/en/legislative-business/bills/parliament-43/session-1/bill-39">Bill 39 — <em>Better Municipal Governance Act, 2022</em></a> — which allows the mayors of Toronto and Ottawa to pass <a href="https://www.durhamradionews.com/archives/162756">bylaws related to provincial “priorities” like housing</a> with only a third of the support of their councils.</p>
<p>Premier Doug Ford’s government justified the adoption of this sweeping housing legislation, as well as the opening of parts of <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-ontario-planning-development-of-50000-new-homes-on-protected-greenbelt/">Ontario’s Greenbelt</a> for development, on the basis of the need to address “the housing supply crisis.”</p>
<p>Specifically, the <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8853748/doug-ford-london-housing/">province pointed</a> to a <a href="https://files.ontario.ca/mmah-housing-affordability-task-force-report-en-2022-02-07-v2.pdf">February 2022 provincial housing affordability task force report</a>, which said that Ontario needed to build 1.5 million homes over the next decade to address the shortage of housing.</p>
<p>The task force report provided the foundation for shredding of much of the province’s land-use planning and local governance structures, all in favour of development interests. But there has been very little <a href="https://cela.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Bill_23_The_Question_of_Need_11NOV2022.pdf">serious examination</a> of how the task force arrived at the 1.5 million homes figure.</p>
<h2>A report that doesn’t add up</h2>
<p>The provincial housing task force report stated that Ontario was 1.2 million houses short of the G7 average and needed to build 1.5 million new homes over the next 10 years. This would imply building 150,000 new dwellings per year.</p>
<p>In order to reach this conclusion, the task force report claimed that Canada has the lowest number of houses per 1,000 people of any G7 nation. However, <a href="https://theconversation.com/ontarios-affordable-housing-task-force-report-does-not-address-the-real-problems-176869">it has been observed</a> that the number of dwellings per 1,000 people is not a very useful comparison because people live in households.</p>
<p>In Ontario, because the average household size is <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/62f0026m/2017002/app-ann-g-eng.htm">2.58 people per household</a>, 1,000 people would only require 388 housing units, whereas in <a href="https://www.globaldata.com/data-insights/macroeconomic/average-household-size-in-germany-2096124/">Germany</a>, for example, 1,000 people would require 507 dwelling units because of an average household size of only 1.97.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/ontarios-affordable-housing-task-force-report-does-not-address-the-real-problems-176869">It has also been suggested</a> that the task force report was over-aggressive in calling for 150,000 new dwellings per year. </p>
<p>Ontario’s population grew by an average of <a href="https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/dp-pd/prof/details/page.cfm?Lang=E&SearchText=Ontario&DGUIDlist=2021A000235&GENDERlist=1,2,3&STATISTIClist=1&HEADERlist=0">155,090 per year from 2016 to 2021</a>. Applying the Ontario average household size to this population growth rate reveals that the need for housing is roughly 60,000 new households per year, not 150,000. </p>
<p>The construction of 60,000 houses <a href="https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.housing.housing-note.housing-note--may-12-2021-.html">is actually lower</a> than the 79,000 housing starts Ontario averaged per year between 2016 and 2021.</p>
<p>What’s more, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-a-shortage-of-homes-isnt-the-main-reason-house-prices-keep-rising/">Ontario’s population</a> grew by 10.7 per cent from 2011 to 2021, while the number of occupied dwellings grew by 12.5 per cent. This means that the number of dwellings has actually been growing faster than the population.</p>
<h2>Unnecessary Greenbelt developments</h2>
<p>Ontario’s construction industry is already <a href="https://www.on-sitemag.com/infrastructure/construction-capacity-among-major-concerns-for-ontario-as-it-plans-four-line-28-5b-transit-expansion/1003965964/">working at capacity</a>. Toronto is reported as having the <a href="https://www.gta-homes.com/real-insights/developments/toronto-continues-to-house-north-americas-largest-number-of-cranes/">largest number</a> of active construction cranes in North America and <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-real-estate-slow-sales-preconstruction-condos/">has recorded high</a> numbers of condominium completions.</p>
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<p>With respect to the supply of land — which was a key justification for the government’s decision to remove lands from the Greenbelt — <a href="https://files.ontario.ca/mmah-housing-affordability-task-force-report-en-2022-02-07-v2.pdf">the task force report itself confirmed</a> that there is plenty of land available in existing urban areas. This includes at least 250,000 new homes and apartments that were approved in 2019 or earlier but <a href="https://www.therecord.com/opinion/2022/01/18/waterloo-region-mayors-call-for-collaboration-to-fix-housing-crisis.html">have not yet been built</a>. </p>
<p>Research undertaken for the environmental organization Environmental Defence revealed that the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Areas have <a href="https://environmentaldefence.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Environmental-Defence-Housing-Affordability-Backgrounder-final-Jan-18.pdf">88,000 acres</a> of already designated new (or greenfield or undeveloped) development lands within existing settlement area boundaries. </p>
<p>That is more than three time the amount of greenfield land (26,000 acres) used for development over the preceding two decades.</p>
<h2>Building a sustainable and liveable province</h2>
<p>All of this evidence suggests that there was neither a shortage of already authorized housing starts to accommodate Ontario’s growing population, nor a shortage of already designated land on which to build homes. </p>
<p>Simply put, the province’s sweeping housing strategy has been built on a foundation of sand.</p>
<p>The reality is that the region is already in the midst of a <a href="https://www.on-sitemag.com/infrastructure/construction-capacity-among-major-concerns-for-ontario-as-it-plans-four-line-28-5b-transit-expansion/1003965964/">major development boom</a>. The problem is that it has been a boom that has done little to <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2022/10/26/the-province-is-setting-a-housing-affordability-trap-for-toronto.html">improve housing affordability</a>, particularly for those at the lower end of the income scale who need it the most. </p>
<p>The housing “crisis” has had less to do with housing supply, and far more to do with the nature and location of what is being built.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://cela.ca/reviewing-bill-23-more-homes-built-faster-act-2022/">draconian measures</a> in Bills 23 and 39, and the province’s accompanying moves to remove lands from the Greenbelt and allow development in the <a href="https://ontariofarmlandtrust.ca/2022/12/12/bill-39-undermines-public-interest/">Duffins-Rouge Agricultural Reserve</a>, seem likely to make these problems worse than ever. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.thespec.com/opinion/contributors/2022/12/02/understanding-the-fuss-about-ontario-bill-23.html">regressive changes</a> being made under the province’s housing legislation will accelerate urban sprawl and the accompanying losses of prime agricultural and natural heritage lands. </p>
<p>They would undermine efforts to build and protect real affordable housing and liveable communities, respond to a <a href="https://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/reporttopics/envreports/env19/2019_EnergyConservationProgressReport.pdf">changing climate</a> and ensure democratic governance at the local level.</p>
<p>The questions of housing and development in the Greater Toronto Area are far more <a href="https://www.thespec.com/opinion/contributors/2022/04/17/missing-the-mark-on-housing.html">complicated</a> than a need to simply build more and faster. </p>
<p>Increased federal immigration targets put <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-immigration-to-canada-hits-record-in-2022/">additional stress</a> on the housing market. But if anything, that reinforces the need for a vision for a sustainable, liveable and affordable region and not one focused on maximizing the development industry’s returns on investment. </p>
<p>The debates prompted by the Ford government’s housing strategy may mark the beginning of a conversation about what that future might look like. They cannot be its end.</p>
<p><em>Joe Castrilli, Counsel with the Canadian Environmental Law Association, contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198133/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Winfield receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p>Evidence suggests that Ontario neither had a shortage of pre-authorized housing starts to accommodate its growing population, nor did it have a shortage of designated land to build such homes.Mark Winfield, Professor, Environmental and Urban Change, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1980612023-01-19T03:35:48Z2023-01-19T03:35:48ZChina’s population is now inexorably shrinking, bringing forward the day the planet’s population turns down<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505042/original/file-20230118-24-tikvps.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=844%2C1197%2C2910%2C1389&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>China’s National Bureau of Statistics has confirmed what researchers such as myself have <a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-population-is-about-to-shrink-for-the-first-time-since-the-great-famine-struck-60-years-ago-heres-what-it-means-for-the-world-176377">long suspected</a> – that 2022 was the year China’s population turned down, the first time that has happened since the <a href="https://alphahistory.com/chineserevolution/great-chinese-famine/">great famine</a> brought on by Chinese leader Mao Zedong in 1959-1961.</p>
<p>Unlike the famine, whose effects were temporary, and followed by steady population growth, this downturn will be long-lasting, even if it is followed by a temporary rebound in births, bringing forward the day the world’s population peaks and starts to shrink.</p>
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<p>The National Bureau of Statistics reported on Tuesday that China’s population fell to 1.412 billion in 2022 from 1.413 billion in 2021, a decrease of <a href="http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202301/t20230117_1892094.html">850,000</a>.</p>
<p>The Bureau reported 9.56 million births in 2022, down from 10.62 million in 2021. The number of births per thousand people slid from 7.52 to 6.77. </p>
<p>China’s <a href="https://www.who.int/data/gho/indicator-metadata-registry/imr-details/123">total fertility rate</a>, the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime, was fairly flat at an average about 1.66 between 1991 and 2017 under the influence of China’s <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/one-child-policy.asp">one-child policy</a>, but then fell to 1.28 in 2020 and 1.15 in 2021.</p>
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<p>The 2021 rate of 1.15 is well below the replacement rate of 2.1 generally thought necessary to sustain a population, also well below the US and Australian rates of 1.7 and 1.6, and even below ageing Japan’s unusually low rate of 1.3.</p>
<p>Calculations from Professor Wei Chen at the Renmin University of China, based on the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics data on Tuesday, put the 2022 fertility rate at just 1.08.</p>
<h2>Births declining even before COVID</h2>
<p>In part, the slide is because three years of strict COVID restrictions reduced both the marriage rate and the willingness of young families to have children. </p>
<p>But mainly the slide is because, even before the restrictions, Chinese women were becoming reluctant to have children and resistant to incentives to <a href="https://www.china-briefing.com/news/china-releases-supporting-measures-for-three-child-policy/">get them to have more</a> introduced after the end of the one-child policy in 2016.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-population-is-about-to-shrink-for-the-first-time-since-the-great-famine-struck-60-years-ago-heres-what-it-means-for-the-world-176377">China's population is about to shrink for the first time since the great famine struck 60 years ago. Here's what it means for the world</a>
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<p>One theory is that the one-child policy got them used to small families. Other theories involve the rising cost of living and the increasing marriage age, which delays births and dampens the desire to have children.</p>
<p>In addition, the one-child policy left China with fewer women of child-bearing age than might be expected. Sex-selection by couples limited to having only one child lifted the ratio of boys to girls to one of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-population-is-about-to-shrink-for-the-first-time-since-the-great-famine-struck-60-years-ago-heres-what-it-means-for-the-world-176377">highest in the world</a>.</p>
<h2>Deaths growing, even before COVID</h2>
<p>The number of deaths, which had roughly equalled the number of births in 2021 at 10.14 million, climbed to 10.41 million in 2022 under the continued influence of population ageing and COVID restrictions.</p>
<p>Importantly, the official death estimate for 2022 was based on data collected in November. That means it doesn’t take into account the <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/01/16/china-admitted-60000-people-died-dropped-covid-zero-restrictions-researchers-real-number-10x-higher/">jump in deaths</a> in December when COVID restrictions were relaxed.</p>
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<p>China might well experience a rebound in births in the next few years as a result of looser COVID restrictions, an easing of the pandemic and enhanced incentives to have more children. </p>
<p>But any such rebound is likely to be only temporary. </p>
<p>When the total fertility rate is as low as China’s has been for a long time, without substantial inward migration, a decline in population becomes inevitable.</p>
<h2>Population prospects bleak</h2>
<p>Last year the United Nations <a href="https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Line/156">brought forward</a> its estimate of when China’s population would peak by eight years from 2031 to 2023.</p>
<p>My calculations suggest that if China was to quickly lift its total fertility rate back to the replacement rate of 2.1 and keep it there, it would take 40 or more years before China’s population began to consistently grow again.</p>
<p>And bringing fertility back to 2.1 is most unlikely. Evidence from European countries, which were the first to experience fertility declines and ageing, shows that once fertility falls below replacement it is <a href="https://www.europeanfinancialreview.com/chinas-population-is-shrinking-and-ageing-what-can-the-government-do/">very hard</a> to return it to 2.1.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-chinas-shrinking-population-is-a-big-deal-counting-the-social-economic-and-political-costs-of-an-aging-smaller-society-198056">Why China’s shrinking population is a big deal – counting the social, economic and political costs of an aging, smaller society</a>
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<p>If China was instead merely able to lift fertility to 1.3 by 2033, then gradually to 1.49 by the end of this century as the United Nations <a href="https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Line/156">assumed last year</a>, China’s population would continue to decline indefinitely. That central UN projection has China’s population roughly halving to <a href="https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Line/156">766.67 million</a> by the end of the century.</p>
<p>Just as likely is that China’s total fertility rate will slip even lower. The Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences expects a drop to 1.1, pushing China’s population down to <a href="https://www-ssap-com-cn.translate.goog/c/2019-01-03/1074956.shtml?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp">587 million</a> in 2100.</p>
<p>A more severe scenario, put forward by the United Nations as its <a href="https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Line/156">low case</a>, is a drop in total fertility to around 0.8, giving China a population of only 488 million by the end of the century, about one third of its present level.</p>
<p>Such a drop is possible. South Korea’s total fertility rate fell to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/24/world/asia/south-korea-fertility-rate.html">0.81</a> in 2021.</p>
<h2>China’s population drives the globe’s population</h2>
<p>China has been the world’s biggest nation, accounting for more than one sixth of global population. This means that even as it shrinks, how fast it shrinks has implications for when the globe’s population starts to shrink.</p>
<p>In 2022 the United Nations brought forward its estimate of when the world’s population will peak by 20 years to <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf">2086</a>. The Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences forecasts for China would mean an earlier peak, in 2084.</p>
<p>India is likely to have overtaken China as the world’s biggest nation in 2022. The UN expects it to have <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf">1.7 billion</a> people to China’s 1.4 billion in 2050.</p>
<p>Forecasting when and if the global population will shrink is extraordinarily difficult, but what has happened in China is likely to have brought that day closer.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198061/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Xiujian Peng works for/consults to/owns shares in the Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University. She receives funding from Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences from 2017 to 2019. </span></em></p>One scenario has China’s population halving by the end of the century, another has it falling by two-thirds.Xiujian Peng, Senior Research Fellow, Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1980562023-01-18T16:08:18Z2023-01-18T16:08:18ZWhy China’s shrinking population is a big deal – counting the social, economic and political costs of an aging, smaller society<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505050/original/file-20230118-14-dfw8cm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3995%2C2667&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Will an aging, shrinking population put the brakes on economic growth?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-elderly-man-rides-a-tricycle-on-a-street-in-hangzhou-news-photo/1246295312?phrase=china%20population&adppopup=true">CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images.</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Throughout much of recorded human history, China has <a href="http://afe.easia.columbia.edu/special/china_1950_population.htm">boasted the largest population in the world</a> – and until recently, by some margin.</p>
<p>So news that the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-population-shrinks-first-time-since-1961-2023-01-17/">Chinese population is now in decline</a>, and will sometime later this year be <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/india-set-overtake-china-worlds-most-populous-nation-2023-01-17/">surpassed by that of India</a>, is big news even if long predicted. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://www.faculty.uci.edu/profile.cfm?faculty_id=5098">scholar of Chinese demographics</a>, I know that the figures released by Chinese government on Jan. 17, 2023, showing that for the <a href="https://www.asiaone.com/china/chinas-population-shrinks-first-time-1961">first time in six decades</a>, deaths in the previous year outnumbered births is no mere blip. While that previous year of shrinkage, 1961 – during the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/china_politics/key_people_events/html/3.stm">Great Leap Forward</a> economic failure, in which <a href="https://www.asianstudies.org/publications/eaa/archives/chinas-great-leap-forward/#:%7E:text=From%201960%E2%80%931962%2C%20an%20estimated,this%20disaster%20was%20largely%20preventable.">an estimated 30 million people died of starvation</a> – represented a deviation from the trend, 2022 is a pivot. It is the onset of what is likely to be a long-term decline. By the end of the century, the Chinese population is <a href="https://population.un.org/wpp/">expected to shrink by 45%</a>, according to the United Nations. And that is under the assumption that China maintains its current fertility rate of around 1.3 children per couple, which it may not.</p>
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<p>This decline in numbers will spur a trend that already concerns demographers in China: a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(22)02410-2">rapidly aging society</a>. By 2040, around a quarter of the Chinese population is <a href="https://globalcoalitiononaging.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/China%E2%80%99s-Demographic-Outlook.pdf">predicted to be over the age of 65</a>.</p>
<p>In short, this is a seismic shift. It will have huge symbolic and substantive impacts on China in three main areas. </p>
<h2>Economy</h2>
<p>In the space of 40 years, China has largely completed a historic transformation from an agrarian economy to one <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/april-2016/chinas-rapid-rise-from-backward-agrarian-society-to-industrial-powerhouse-in-just-35-years">based on manufacturing and the service industry</a>. This has been accompanied by <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2018/january/income-living-standards-china">increases in the standard of living and income levels</a>. But the Chinese government has long recognized that the country can no longer rely on the labor-intensive economic growth model of the past. Technological advances and competition from countries that can provide a cheaper workforce such as Vietnam and India have rendered this old model largely obsolete.</p>
<p>This historical turning point in China’s population trend serves as a further wake-up call to move the country’s model more quickly to a post-manufacturing, post-industrial economy – an aging, shrinking population does not fit the purposes of a labor-intensive economic model.</p>
<p>As to what it means for China’s economy, and <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2023/01/17/china-population-decline-birth-rate-global-economy-impact/11066270002/">that of the world</a>, population decline and an aging society will certainly provide Beijing with short-term and long-term challenges. In short, it means there will be fewer workers able to feed the economy and spur further economic growth on one side of the ledger; on the other, a growing post-work population will need potentially costly support.</p>
<p>It is perhaps no coincidence then that 2022, as well as being a pivotal year for China in terms of demographics, also saw one of the worst economic performances <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-economy-slows-sharply-q4-2022-growth-one-worst-record-2023-01-17/">the country has experienced since 1976</a>, according to data released on Jan. 17.</p>
<h2>Society</h2>
<p>The rising share of elderly people in China’s population is more than an economic issue – it will also reshape Chinese society. Many of these elderly people only have one child, due to the <a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3135510/chinas-one-child-policy-what-was-it-and-what-impact-did-it">one-child policy</a> in place for three and a half decades <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-end-of-chinas-one-child-policy/">before being relaxed in 2016</a>. </p>
<p>The large number of aging parents with only one child to rely on for support will likely impose severe constraints – not least for the elderly parents, who will need financial support. They will also need emotional and social support for longer as a result of <a href="https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CHN/china/life-expectancy">extended life expectancy</a>.</p>
<p>It will also impose constraints on those children themselves, who will need to fulfill obligations to their career, provide for their own children and support their elderly parents simultaneously.</p>
<p>Responsibility will fall on the Chinese government to provide adequate health care and pensions. But unlike in Western democracies that have by now had many decades to develop social safety nets, the speed of the demographic and economic change in China has meant that Beijing struggled to keep pace.</p>
<p>As China’s economy <a href="https://theconversation.com/jiang-zemin-propelled-chinas-economic-rise-in-the-world-leaving-his-successors-to-deal-with-the-massive-inequality-that-followed-195675">underwent rapid growth after 2000</a>, the Chinese government responded by investing tremendously in <a href="https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ752324.pdf">education</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-9276-12-40">health care facilities</a>, as well as <a href="https://www.refworld.org/pdfid/5301df5d4.pdf">extending universal pension coverage</a>. But the demographic shift was so rapid that it meant that political reforms to improve the safety net were always playing catch-up. Even with the vast expansion in coverage, the country’s health care system is still highly inefficient, unequally distributed and inadequate given the growing need.</p>
<p>Similarly, social pension systems are <a href="https://doi.org//10.1016/j.jeoa.2019.100194">highly segmented and unequally distributed</a>.</p>
<h2>Politics</h2>
<p>How the Chinese government responds to the challenges presented by this dramatic demographic shift will be key. Failure to live up to the expectations of the public in its response could result in a crisis for the Chinese Communist Party, whose legitimacy is tied closely to economic growth. Any economic decline could have severe consequences for the Chinese Communist Party. It will also be judged on how well the state is able to fix its social support system.</p>
<p>Indeed, there is already a strong case to be made that the Chinese government has moved too slowly. The one-child policy that <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-costs-and-benefits-of-chinas-one-child-policy-20467">played a significant role</a> in the slowing growth, and now decline, in population was a government policy for more than three decades. It has been known since the 1990s that <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=CN">the Chinese fertility rate was too low</a> to sustain current population numbers. Yet it was only in 2016 that Beijing acted and relaxed the policy to allow more couples to have a second, and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/05/31/1001846355/confronted-by-aging-population-china-allows-couples-to-have-three-children">then in 2021 a third</a>, child.</p>
<p>This action to spur population growth, or at least slow its decline, came too late to prevent China from soon losing its crown as the world’s largest nation. Loss of prestige is one thing though, the political impact of any economic downturn resulting from a shrinking population is quite another.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Feng Wang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For the first time since 1961, deaths in China have outpaced births – and unlike that one-year decline, the downward trend is likely to continue.Feng Wang, Professor of Sociology, University of California, IrvineLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1950632022-12-08T13:37:31Z2022-12-08T13:37:31ZClimate change is not what South Africans see as their main problem: a survey breaks it down<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499313/original/file-20221206-11-5skv9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Climate change is slowly getting on the political agenda in Africa</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gallo Images via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate change is a major threat to <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/chapter-5/">food production</a>, and is <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/climate-change-and-disasters.html">displacing people</a> and increasing the risks to <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health#:%7E:text=Climate%20change%20is%20already%20impacting,diseases%2C%20and%20mental%20health%20issues.">health</a> globally. Addressing climate change requires vast resources, including <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/introduction-to-climate-finance">financial</a> investment to decarbonise economies and produce food sustainably. Above all, it requires international cooperation and commitment – based on an accurate understanding of the relevant issues.</p>
<p>However, less developed countries also have competing challenges. In South Africa, for example, <a href="https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=739&id=1">poverty</a>, inequality, <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/minister-general-bheki-cele-quarter-two-crime-statistics-20222023-23-nov-2022-0000">violence</a> and access to education and <a href="https://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=15407">employment</a> tend to overshadow climate change efforts.</p>
<p>In 2022, the South African government started thinking about how to incorporate environmental challenges in the <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/south-africa-aims-to-factor-climate-related-spending-into-budget-2022-05-30">national budget</a> using evidence from 11 ongoing projects. This is an important step towards treating climate change as a national priority. However, at present other socioeconomic challenges plaguing the population are at the centre of the government’s national spending.</p>
<p>This is understandable. In South Africa, <a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/pdf/10.7196/SAMJ.2016.v106i12.12126">one in every four women</a> aged 18–49 years old has experienced violence from an intimate partner. HIV prevalence is at <a href="https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0302/P03022021.pdf#page=23">13.5%</a> and current unemployment is the highest in many years at <a href="https://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=15685#:%7E:text=The%20official%20unemployment%20rate%20was,the%20second%20quarter%20of%202022">33.9%</a>. South Africans regard these as urgent issues warranting immediate attention. They are reflected in the country’s <a href="https://www.gov.za/issues/key-issues">National Development Plan</a>.</p>
<p>All these concerns are linked, however. Climate change poses an additional risk to current and future endeavours to protect livelihoods, grow the economy, and prevent disease and loss of life. It’s therefore important to know what the public thinks about environmental issues and the value of addressing them.</p>
<p>This was the motivation for my study of the attitudes of South Africans towards environmental issues in relation to competing socioeconomic challenges.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0376835X.2022.2142520?journalCode=cdsa20">study</a> used the 2017 <a href="https://hsrc.ac.za/special-projects/sasas/">South African Social Attitudes Survey</a> of a nationally representative sample of people. In the survey, 3,173 adults chose what they saw as the three most important challenges in South Africa at the time. Environmental issues were on the list they could choose from.</p>
<p>Environmental issues did not appear in the top 10 most important challenges they identified. Only 0.09% of the respondents reported environmental issues as the most important priority in the country. The environment ranked 17th among respondents’ top priorities. The highest ranked issues were unemployment, HIV and crime. </p>
<p>Analysis of responses revealed that 77.62% of respondents had negative attitudes towards the environment and 22.37% had positive attitudes.</p>
<p>The survey results suggest that South Africans would rather see efforts go into tackling other challenges – even though climate change will intensify those challenges. The results also suggest where efforts to change perceptions could focus. </p>
<p>The survey was carried out five years ago and the COVID-19 pandemic has since had a huge impact on people’s lives. So it is possible that if asked today, climate concerns might rank even lower in the list of priorities for the South African population. </p>
<h2>Attitudes and perceptions about environmental concerns</h2>
<p>The study population were adults, aged 16 years and older, of both sexes and all races, geographical locations and nationalities. Results were controlled for these demographic and socioeconomic characteristics.</p>
<p>Participants responded to three questions:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>what they saw as South Africa’s three most important challenges (in order)</p></li>
<li><p>whether “people’s taxes” were being used for the environment</p></li>
<li><p>whether more taxes should be spent on the environment.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Out of all the respondents, 65% listed unemployment (1st), 15% stated HIV/AIDS (2nd) and 11% cited crime and safety (3rd) as the top three challenges in the country. Only 0.09% of the respondents listed the environment as their top priority. This last group of respondents were all male.</p>
<p>Environmental issues did not appear in the top 10 of the second or third most important challenges either. </p>
<p>The list of second most important priorities was led by: crime and safety; service provision; corruption. Here, environment came in at 15th (1.04%). Of those who ranked environment 2nd, 69% were female.</p>
<p>The list of third most important issues was dominated by: poverty; corruption; education. Environment was 10th (3.18%), with a more even mix of male and female.</p>
<p>Participants who ranked social challenges as a main priority were also more likely to have positive attitudes towards environmental challenges. This shows there is a common group within the population that could be targeted for environmental and social change movements.</p>
<p>Among respondents who believed that more tax money should be spent on the environment, 62.28% were male and 37.72% female.</p>
<p>Males and urban residents were more likely to have negative attitudes to environmental issues than females and rural residents. </p>
<p>The groups that were inclined to be negative about the environment were: older than 16-19; female; black; less educated; unemployed. </p>
<p>The finding that females do not prioritise environmental challenges as much as males is an opportunity to inform females about the immediate benefits that climate change strategies could present to the care and daily functioning of their households. About <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1114301/distribution-of-female-headed-households-in-south-africa-by-province/">42% of households</a> in South Africa are headed by females. </p>
<h2>Implications for climate change efforts</h2>
<p>These results tell us that economic, social and health competing interests currently overshadow environmental interests in South Africa. This is justifiable at present, but many of these issues will be exacerbated by climate change in the future, adding another challenge to the country’s development prospects. </p>
<p>Second, efforts to reduce the competing challenges could create an opportunity for more awareness around environmental change and development concerns. </p>
<p>Strategies that focus on including females and rural residents, among others, should be developed to inform and assist the public to reduce carbon footprints and create sustainable technologies. </p>
<p>In doing so, there are two important factors to remember. Interventions should not cost the public more and make the population more vulnerable. And the solutions sought and information communicated should be suited to the population’s livelihoods, food production and consumption needs, and economies. That is, an African led strategy and solution is required.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195063/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicole De Wet- Billings receives funding from the DST-NRF Center of Excellence in Human Development. </span></em></p>South Africans would rather see efforts go into tackling other challenges – but climate change will intensify those challenges.Nicole De Wet- Billings, Senior Lecturer, Demography and Population Studies, Schools of Social Sciences and Public Health, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1938542022-11-15T03:41:05Z2022-11-15T03:41:05ZCalls for a ‘one-child policy’ in India are misguided at best, and dangerous at worst<p>India will surpass China as the country with the world’s largest population in 2023, according to the United Nations World Population Prospects 2022 <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf">report</a>. </p>
<p>The UN also projects the global population has <a href="https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-reach-8-billion-15-november-2022">reached eight billion as of Tuesday</a>.</p>
<p>As early as March 2022, reports <a href="https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-03-06/Has-India-overtaken-China-s-population-Some-websites-think-so-18berd5UOas/index.html">circulated on Chinese social media</a> that India’s population had already surpassed China’s, though this was later dispelled by experts.</p>
<p>Women in India today are having fewer children than their mothers had. But despite a lower fertility rate, the country’s population is still growing.</p>
<p>The idea the country should adopt something like China’s former “one-child policy” has been moving from the fringe <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/union-minister-athawale-calls-for-one-child-policy/article36295308.ece">to the political mainstream</a>.</p>
<p>But the notion that India should emulate China’s past population policies is misguided at best, and dangerous at worst. </p>
<p>Both countries are struggling with the legacy of harsh population policies, and stricter population controls in India could have disastrous consequences for women and minority communities.</p>
<p>Given Australia’s <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/india/bolstering-our-ties-india">growing ties to India</a>, it should be concerned about what population policy could mean for the erosion of democratic norms in India.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/8-billion-humans-how-population-growth-and-climate-change-are-connected-as-the-anthropocene-engine-transforms-the-planet-193075">8 billion humans: How population growth and climate change are connected as the 'Anthropocene engine' transforms the planet</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<h2>Unintended consequences</h2>
<p>India implemented the world’s first national family planning program in 1952. The birthrate began to drop, but only gradually, and family sizes remained stubbornly high. The government then implemented <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-asian-studies/article/storming-the-citadels-of-poverty-family-planning-under-the-emergency-in-india-19751977/976936DA6279A5D1612A4AEB997DAACA">widespread forced sterilisation</a> particularly of Muslims and the urban poor, especially during “The Emergency” years of 1975-77.</p>
<p>After the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, infant mortality dropped significantly. Between 1950 and 1980, China’s population <a href="https://www.theindiaforum.in/article/india-overtaking-china-population-lessons-to-draw">almost doubled</a>. The “one-child policy” – limiting births per couple through coercive measures – was implemented in the early 1980s, and fertility dropped dramatically.</p>
<p>In both India and China, these population policies had unintended consequences.</p>
<p>In China, the government found that once fertility rates dropped, they were faced with an ageing population. Even after relaxing birth control policies to allow all couples to have two children in 2015, and three children in 2021, birth rates <a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3136092/chinas-three-child-policy-why-was-it-introduced-and-what-does">remain low</a>, particularly among the urban middle class favoured by the government.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1425872226931417094"}"></div></p>
<p>In both countries, skewed sex ratios caused by sex selective abortions have led to a range of social problems, including <a href="https://www.thechinastory.org/what-have-we-learned-from-the-woman-in-chains/">forced marriages</a> and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13642980802533109">human trafficking</a>.</p>
<p>China has found that despite reversing course, it cannot undo this rapid demographic transition. Urban, middle-class couples face mounting financial pressure, including the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-child-rearing-costs-far-outstrip-us-japan-research-2022-02-23/">cost of raising children</a> and of caring for the elderly. While the government has encouraged “high quality” urban women to give birth, rural and minority women are still <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/20/opinion/china-women-birthrate-rights.html">discouraged from having more children</a>.</p>
<p>As in China, in some states in India, women’s education and their aspirations for their children have <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/files/documents/2020/Jan/un_2002_population_bulletin_48-49_en.pdf#page=372">contributed to lower birth rates</a>. Like China, these states now face an ageing population. Birth rates in other states with high Muslim populations have <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/pune-news/family-planning-among-muslims-has-increased-over-the-years-sy-quraishi-101657566764728.html/">also declined</a>, but at a slower rate.</p>
<h2>Unfair impact</h2>
<p>Despite declining birth rates, <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/why-rajasthan-s-health-minister-wants-to-adopt-a-one-child-policy-1830953-2021-07-21">some</a> politicians have advocated for the adoption of something like China’s former one-child policy in northern states with large Muslim populations. These calls have less to do with demographic reality, and more to do with majoritarian <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3114852/population-control-india-eyeing-chinas-one-child-policy-some-see">Hindu nationalist concerns</a> around Muslim and “lower-caste” fertility.</p>
<p>The worry here is that the coming population milestone will push India to adopt knee-jerk population policies. These could in turn unfairly affect women and minorities. </p>
<p>Four Indian states with large Muslim populations have already passed <a href="https://www.newindianexpress.com/galleries/nation/2021/jul/14/uttar-pradesh-population-bill-explained-breaking-down-yogi-governments-new-one-child-policy-in-15-103174--2.html">versions</a> of a “two-child policy”. What’s more, built into many of these policies are incentives for families to have just <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/3aq7g8/india-is-proposing-a-two-child-policy-to-keep-its-population-under-control">one child</a>. And in 2021, a senior government minister <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/india/union-minister-athawale-bats-for-one-child-norm-7489014/">proposed</a> a national “one-child” policy.</p>
<p>Like past population control policies, they’re targeted at Muslim and lower-caste families, and illustrate a broader Hindu nationalist agenda with <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/09715215221082185">anti-democratic tendencies</a>. </p>
<p>As happened at the height of China’s one-child policy, Indians could lose government jobs and more if such laws were passed at the national level. Some Indian states and municipalities have already legislated that people with more than two children are <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/india/two-child-policy-in-indian-states-6082879/">ineligible for government jobs</a> and <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/gujarats-two-child-policy-why-3-civic-candidates-were-disqualified-7181791/">to stand for political office</a>.</p>
<p>The irony is that India’s birth rate and the size of families are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/11/25/india-birth-rate-replacement-population/">decreasing</a> because of women’s own reproductive choices. Many women are getting <a href="https://reproductive-health-journal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12978-021-01220-w">surgical contraception</a> after having two children (or after having a son). </p>
<p>However, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/chhattisgarh-sterilization-idINKCN0IV0MB20141111">financial inducements</a> for doctors and the women means <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/101-sterilisations-within-8-hrs-chhattisgarh-orders-probe-101630689140359.html">poorer women</a> are pressured to undergo these procedures.</p>
<p>In other words, the trend in India is towards smaller families already. As the 2022 UN report itself notes, <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf">no drastic intervention from the state is required</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193854/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Stricter population controls in India could have disastrous consequences for women and minority communities.Aprajita Sarcar, Laureate Postdoctoral Fellow, UNSW SydneyJoel Wing-Lun, Lecturer in History and Asian Studies, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1943692022-11-14T15:42:24Z2022-11-14T15:42:24Z8 billion people: why trying to control the population is often futile – and harmful<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495067/original/file-20221114-25-n29rk9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=75%2C46%2C3815%2C2164&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-people-crowd-on-pedestrian-crosswalk-1486465109">Varavin88 / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The world’s population is expected to hit <a href="https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-reach-8-billion-15-november-2022">8 billion people</a> on November 15, according to the UN. Already this has prompted <a href="https://theconversation.com/8-billion-people-four-ways-climate-change-and-population-growth-combine-to-threaten-public-health-with-global-consequences-193077">worry</a> about whether there will be enough food, water and energy to support our growing population. While human activity is undoubtedly <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/causes-effects-climate-change">driving the climate crisis</a>, population growth is a red herring. </p>
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<p>Alarmism about population growth has a long and chequered history. On one side are concerns that there are too many people, and that sheer numbers are causing our current environmental crisis. On the other side are arguments that we have too few people. <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/30/health/elon-musk-population-collapse-wellness">Elon Musk</a> has said that “population collapse due to low fertility rates is a much bigger risk to civilization than global warming”. And <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/should-we-tax-the-childless-j7h9c297r">a recent column in the Sunday Times</a> naively argued that the UK should “tax the childless” in order to address declining fertility rates.</p>
<p>As demographers – experts in the study of population – we see both of these arguments as misguided and fundamentally answering the wrong question. Instead of wondering whether we have too many or too few people, we should be asking how we can sustainably meet the needs of the people we have.</p>
<p>While 8 billion is a significant milestone, its magnitude is misleading. The population growth rate <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf">peaked 50 years ago (around 1962-65)</a> and is now less than 1% per year. Globally, the average number of births per woman is now 2.3, little more than “replacement level” – the 2.1 required for a population to stay the same. We are certainly not facing an “empty planet” or “population collapse”. The UN projects that the world population will peak at over 10 billion <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf">in approximately 2086</a>.</p>
<p>Arguing whether we have under or overpopulation is unhelpful and distracting when, in reality, there is very little we can do to influence population growth. Worse, these arguments often have racist, eugenicist <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1363/intsexrephea.46.2020.0147?seq=2#metadata_info_tab_contents">undertones</a>. Overpopulation arguments frequently originate in the global north and aim at reducing fertility in the global south (developing countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America), where the majority of the world’s black, brown, indigenous and multi-heritage people live. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, suggestions that we should tax the childless and take other measures to increase fertility are aimed at countries in the global north, where the majority of the world’s white people live. Likewise, infertility is popularly imagined to affect mainly white, middle-class women in the global north, but in fact, the highest rates of infertility in the world are in the global south. Health systems and population policies often <a href="https://academic.oup.com/heapol/article/33/1/34/4563650?login=false">reflect (and perpetuate) this misperception</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Four pregnant women wearing sports bras and cradling their bellies" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495081/original/file-20221114-16-uojhs1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495081/original/file-20221114-16-uojhs1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495081/original/file-20221114-16-uojhs1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495081/original/file-20221114-16-uojhs1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495081/original/file-20221114-16-uojhs1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495081/original/file-20221114-16-uojhs1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495081/original/file-20221114-16-uojhs1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Arguments about fertility often have racist undertones.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/pregnancy-466552304">Pressmaster / Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>Global population growth is shaped by births and deaths, though migration can also impact regional populations. Another factor is also at play: population momentum. This concept explains why the age structure of a population can cause it to grow even as fertility declines below replacement level. In essence, even if the fertility rate is declining, there is still a large absolute number of people of reproductive age in the population, resulting in more births than deaths.</p>
<p>For example, in Nigeria <a href="https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/MostUsed/">the UN projects</a> that if the fertility rate dropped to replacement level today, the population would continue to grow for the rest of the century, with 124 million more people than today in 2100 (an increase of 57%). In contrast, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/03/japan-low-births-population-decline-2021/">fertility rates in Japan</a> have been below replacement level since 1959 leading to a much older population, but population size only started to decline in 2005.</p>
<p>If all fertility rates were at replacement level, then the world population would still hit 9 billion in 2039 – only two years later than current projections. </p>
<p>Short of an unprecedented disaster, the population will continue to grow. Even COVID-19 mortality had a very small effect on the size of the global population. The World Health Organization estimates that <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/05-05-2022-14.9-million-excess-deaths-were-associated-with-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-2020-and-2021">14.9 million excess deaths</a> were associated with COVID in 2020 and 2021. This is a very large absolute number, but it is dwarfed by the 269 million births that happened in the same period. </p>
<h2>The problem with population policies</h2>
<p>Of course, the number of children that people have still has a big effect on the ultimate size of world population. From an environmental perspective, some would argue that decreasing the fertility rate is still important. However, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions">the carbon footprint</a> of a child born in a “low fertility” country in the global north is, on average, many times larger than a child born in a “high fertility” country in the global south.</p>
<p>Moreover, policies designed to directly influence childbearing decisions are not generally that successful. In China, where a one-child policy was famously implemented for many years, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0220170">research suggests</a> that the effect on fertility rates has been overstated, and that similar reductions in fertility would have resulted from economic growth alone. <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-11840-1_4#Sec3">Education and development are incredibly effective</a> at reducing the number of children that people want, while modern contraception has given people the ability to plan their number and timing better than ever before.</p>
<p>According to a UN database, <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.31.4.205">70% of national governments</a> wish to either lower or raise fertility rates. But the gap between these targets and actual fertility rates shows just how hard it is to achieve any specific fertility rate, especially while maintaining reproductive rights.</p>
<p>For instance, forced sterilisation camps were set up in India <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-30040790">during the 1970s</a>, and sterilisation targets continue today. It is estimated that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/00195561221082984">one-third of sterilised women did not consent</a> to the procedure. </p>
<p>The demographic future is not easy to manipulate, especially without violating human rights. Instead, we must plan for our demographic reality. Eight billion people is neither too few, nor too many – it is simply the number of people on the planet. Rather than trying to increase or decrease the number of people, we must build a planet that enables everyone to live their lives freely, sustainably and with dignity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194369/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melanie Channon is Honorary Secretary of the British Society for Population Studies. She receives funding from UKRI (grant number EP/X02265X/1).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jasmine Fledderjohann receives funding from UKRI in the form of a Future Leaders Fellowship (grant number MR/T021950/1). </span></em></p>Arguments about population growth are unhelpful, distracting and often racist.Melanie Channon, Reader in Social Policy, University of BathJasmine Fledderjohann, Senior Lecturer in Sociology, Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1930772022-11-10T13:41:45Z2022-11-10T13:41:45Z8 billion people: Four ways climate change and population growth combine to threaten public health, with global consequences<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494155/original/file-20221108-12-bg01z4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=522%2C226%2C3071%2C2166&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Infectious diseases like COVID-19 top the list of health concerns.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-elderly-man-a-resident-of-the-sprawling-township-of-news-photo/1211082728">Marco Longari/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/ocho-mil-millones-de-personas-asi-amenazan-a-la-salud-publica-el-cambio-climatico-y-la-superpoblacion-194421">Leer in español</a></em></p>
<p>There are questions that worry me profoundly as a population- and environmental-health scientist. </p>
<p>Will we have enough food for a growing global population? How will we take care of more people in the next pandemic? What will heat do to millions with hypertension? Will countries wage water wars because of increasing droughts? </p>
<p>These risks all have three things in common: health, climate change and a growing population that the United Nations determined <a href="https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-reach-8-billion-15-november-2022">passed 8 billion</a> people in November 2022 – double the population of just 48 years ago.</p>
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<p>In my <a href="https://www.health.pitt.edu/people/ant-2">40-year career</a>, first working in the Amazon rainforest and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and then in academia, I have encountered many public health threats, but none so intransigent and pervasive as climate change. </p>
<p>Of the multitude of climate-related adverse health effects, the following four represent the greatest public health concerns for a growing population.</p>
<h2>Infectious diseases</h2>
<p>Researchers have found that <a href="https://theconversation.com/58-of-human-infectious-diseases-can-be-worsened-by-climate-change-we-scoured-77-000-studies-to-map-the-pathways-188256">over half of all human infectious diseases</a> can be worsened by climate change.</p>
<p>Flooding, for example, can affect water quality and the habitats where dangerous bacteria and vectors like mosquitoes can breed and transmit infectious diseases to people.</p>
<p>Dengue, a painful mosquito-borne viral disease that sickens <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/dengue/about/index.html">about 100 million</a> people a year, becomes more common in warm, wet environments. Its R0, or basic reproduction number – a gauge of how quickly it spreads – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01540-9">increased by about 12%</a> from the 1950s to the average in 2012-2021, according to the 2022 Lancet Countdown report. Malaria’s season expanded by 31% in highland areas of Latin America and nearly 14% in Africa’s highlands as temperatures rose over the same period.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Rows of beds, some covered with mosquito nets, fill a warehouse-like space. Doctors visit with some of the patients." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Patients rest in a makeshift dengue ward at a hospital during a severe outbreak in Pakistan in 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/patients-take-rest-on-beds-arranged-inside-a-makeshift-news-photo/1235932771">Arif Ali/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Flooding can also spread waterborne organisms that cause <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-020-04961-4">hepatitis</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.39503.700903.DB">diarrheal diseases</a>, such as cholera, particularly when large numbers of people are displaced by disasters and living in areas with poor water quality for drinking or washing. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.dis.7a2cee9e980f91ad7697b570bcc4b004">Droughts</a>, too, can degrade drinking water quality. As a result, more rodent populations enter into human communities in search of food, increasing the <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens11010015">potential to spread hantavirus</a>.</p>
<h2>Extreme heat</h2>
<p>Another serious health risk is rising temperatures. </p>
<p>Excessive heat can <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-heat-and-health">exacerbate existing health problems</a>, such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/all.14177">cardiovascular</a> and respiratory diseases. And when heat stress becomes <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/topics/heatstress/heatrelillness.html">heat stroke</a>, it can <a href="https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/heat-stroke/symptoms-causes/syc-20353581">damage the heart, brain and kidneys</a> and become lethal.</p>
<p>Today, about 30% of the global population is exposed to potentially deadly heat stress each year. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that percentage will rise <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/about/frequently-asked-questions/keyfaq3/">to at least 48% and as high as 76%</a> by the end of this century.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Where climate change affects human health.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>In addition to lives lost, heat exposure was projected to have resulted in <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/infographics-do/climate-countdown-2022">470 billion potential work hours lost</a> globally in 2021, with associated income losses totaling up to US$669 billion. As populations grow and heat rises, more people will be relying on air conditioning powered by fossil fuels, which <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/air-conditioning-use-emerges-as-one-of-the-key-drivers-of-global-electricity-demand-growth">further contributes to climate change</a>.</p>
<h2>Food and water security</h2>
<p>Heat also affects food and water security for a growing population.</p>
<p>The Lancet review found that high temperatures in 2021 <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)01540-9/fulltext">shortened the growing season</a> by about 9.3 days on average for corn, or maize, and six days for wheat compared with the 1981-2020 average. Warming oceans, meanwhile, can kill shellfish and shift <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14512">fisheries that coastal communities rely on</a>. Heat waves in 2020 alone resulted in <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)01540-9/fulltext">98 million more</a> people facing food insecurity compared with the 1981-2010 average.</p>
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<img alt="A woman standing in a field examines a stalk of sorghum" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A farmer in Zimbabwe switched to sorghum, a grain crop that can thrive in dry conditions, as drought withered other crops in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/angeline-kadiki-an-elderly-who-is-a-sorghum-farmer-inspects-news-photo/1130994283">Jekesai Njikizana/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Rising temperatures also affect fresh water supplies through evaporation and by shrinking <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/andes-meltdown-new-insights-into-rapidly-retreating-glaciers">mountain glaciers</a> and <a href="https://www.ioes.ucla.edu/project/climate-change-sierra-nevada/">snowpack</a> that historically have kept water flowing through the summer months.</p>
<p>Water scarcity and drought have the potential to displace almost <a href="https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2022/goal-13/">700 million people by 2030</a>, according to U.N. estimates. Combined with population growth and growing energy needs, they can also fuel geopolitical conflicts as countries face food shortages and compete for water.</p>
<h2>Poor air quality</h2>
<p>Air pollution can be <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-heat-air-pollution-can-be-deadly-with-the-health-risk-together-worse-than-either-alone-187422">exacerbated by the drivers of climate change</a>. Hot weather and the same fossil fuel gases warming the planet <a href="https://www.lung.org/clean-air/climate-change/climate-change-air-pollution">contribute to ground-level ozone</a>, a key component of smog. That can exacerbate allergies, asthma and other respiratory problems, as well as cardiovascular disease. </p>
<p>Wildfires fueled by hot, dry landscapes <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abi9386">add to the air pollution health risk</a>. Wildfire smoke is laden with tiny particles that can travel deep into the lungs, <a href="https://www.epa.gov/wildfire-smoke-course/why-wildfire-smoke-health-concern">causing heart and respiratory problems</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three school girls with backpacks walk through smog along a road while covering their mouths with handkerchiefs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Smog in New Delhi, India, is an ongoing problem. It got so bad in 2017 that the city temporarily closed its primary schools.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/indian-schoolchildren-cover-their-faces-as-they-walk-to-news-photo/871511920">Sajjad Hussain/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What can we do about it?</h2>
<p>Many groups and medical experts are working to counter this cascade of negative climate consequences on human health.</p>
<p>The U.S. National Academy of Medicine has embarked on an ambitious <a href="https://nam.edu/programs/climate-change-and-human-health/">grand challenge in climate change, human health, and equity</a> to ramp up research. At many academic institutions, including the University of Pittsburgh’s School of Public Health, where I am dean, climate and health are being embedded in research, teaching and service.</p>
<p>Addressing the health burden on low- and middle-income countries is pivotal. Often, the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK525226/">most vulnerable</a> people in these countries <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/goals/goal13">face the greatest harms from climate change</a> without having the resources to protect their health and environment. Population growth can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10384">deepen these iniquities</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.paho.org/en/news/19-8-2022-eu-and-paho-supporting-nine-caribbean-countries-integration-health-national">Adaptation assessments</a> can help high-risk countries prepare for the effects of climate change. Development groups are also leading projects to <a href="https://www.cgiar.org/">expand the cultivation of crops</a> that can thrive in dry conditions. The <a href="https://www.paho.org/en">Pan American Health Organization</a>, which focuses on the Caribbean, is an example of how countries are working to reduce communicable diseases and advance regional capacity to counter the impact of climate change.</p>
<p>Ultimately, reducing the health risks will require <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">reducing the greenhouse gas emissions</a> that are driving climate change. </p>
<p>Countries worldwide <a href="https://unfccc.int/process/the-convention/history-of-the-convention#Essential-background">committed in 1992</a> to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Thirty years later, global emissions are <a href="https://www.unep.org/events/publication-launch/emissions-gap-report-2022">only beginning to flatten</a>, and communities around the world are increasingly suffering extreme heat waves and devastating floods and droughts.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://unfccc.int/event/cop-27">U.N. climate change talks</a>, which in my view aren’t focusing enough on health, can help bring attention to key climate impacts that harm health. As U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres noted: While we celebrate our advances, “at the same time, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another.”</p>
<p><em>Samantha Totoni, a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Pittsburgh School of Public Health, contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193077/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maureen Lichtveld does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The human population has doubled in 48 years, and worsening climate change has left the world facing serious health risks, from infectious diseases to hunger and heat stress.Maureen Lichtveld, Dean of the School of Public Health, University of PittsburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1930752022-11-03T12:00:21Z2022-11-03T12:00:21Z8 billion humans: How population growth and climate change are connected as the ‘Anthropocene engine’ transforms the planet<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492902/original/file-20221102-12-nv3d4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C31%2C5189%2C3410&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Population growth fuels knowledge, leading to new technology and energy use, fueling more population growth. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/commuters-rushing-onto-train-at-umeda-subway-royalty-free-image/521711666">Robert Essel/The Image Bank via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>At first glance, the connections between the world’s growing population and climate change seem obvious. The more people we have on this planet, the larger their collective impact on the climate.</p>
<p>However, a closer look with a longer time horizon reveals relationships between population size and climate change that can help us better understand both humanity’s predicament as the <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/11/1130417">global population hits 8 billion people</a> – a milestone the <a href="https://ph.news.yahoo.com/baby-girl-born-manila-symbolizes-070929612.html">United Nations marked</a> on Nov. 15, 2022.</p>
<h2>Looking back to the Stone Age</h2>
<p>For much of human evolution, our ancestors were exposed to large climatic fluctuations between ice ages and intermittent warmer periods. The last of these ice ages <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age">ended about 10,000 years ago</a>. </p>
<p>Before the ice sheets melted, sea levels were <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/coastline-eastern-us-changesslowly">about 400 feet (120 meters) lower than today</a>. That allowed humans to migrate around the world. Everywhere they went, our ancestors reshaped landscapes, first by clearing forests and then through early agricultural practices that emerged in a number of regions starting just as the last ice age ended.</p>
<p>Paleoclimatologist <a href="https://evsc.as.virginia.edu/people/profile/wfr5c">William Ruddiman</a> has suggested that these early actions – cutting down trees and expanding farming – caused a small initial rise in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. That <a href="https://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/24/02/2021/ruddiman-hypothesis-debated-theory-progresses-along-interdisciplinary-lines">contributed to a stable climate</a> over the past 10,000 years by counteracting trends of declining carbon dioxide levels that might have triggered another glaciation event. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Painting from an Egyptian tomb showing a person holding a scythe and cutting wheat." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492904/original/file-20221102-28600-bw9n55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492904/original/file-20221102-28600-bw9n55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492904/original/file-20221102-28600-bw9n55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492904/original/file-20221102-28600-bw9n55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492904/original/file-20221102-28600-bw9n55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=657&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492904/original/file-20221102-28600-bw9n55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=657&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492904/original/file-20221102-28600-bw9n55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=657&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Agriculture began fueling the Anthropocene engine. A painting in the tomb of Sennedjem from Egypt’s 19th dynasty, between 1295 B.C. and 1186 B.C., shows a person reaping wheat in Thebes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/detail-of-a-painting-on-stucco-in-the-tomb-of-sennedjem-news-photo/152198532">Werner Forman/Universal Images Group/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By reshaping landscapes, our ancestors actively constructed the niches they inhabited. This process is an important aspect of evolutionary change, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jez.b.22631">creating important feedback dynamics</a> between evolving species and their environment.</p>
<p>As humans evolved, the demands of the growing population, associated knowledge creation and energy use created a <a href="https://technosphere-magazine.hkw.de/p/The-Growth-and-Differentiation-of-Metabolism-Extended-Evolutionary-Dynamics-in-the-Technosphere-hTBDuetUoDLXpZLjWAq4aX">feedback cycle</a> my colleagues and I call the Anthropocene engine. That engine has transformed the planet.</p>
<h2>Revving up the Anthropocene engine</h2>
<p>The Anthropocene engine has been running for at least 8,000 years. It led to the rise of modern civilizations and ultimately to the environmental challenges we face today, including climate change.</p>
<p>How does the Anthropocene engine work?</p>
<p>First, populations had to reach a critical number of people to successfully create enough knowledge about their environments that they could begin to actively and purposefully transform the niches they lived in.</p>
<p>Successful agriculture was the product of such knowledge. In turn, agriculture increased the amount of energy available to these early societies.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A carved scene shows a shop with bowls on the wall, a man pounding an item with a large hammer, another person writing, a dog and a child." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492907/original/file-20221102-26775-6l91zv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492907/original/file-20221102-26775-6l91zv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492907/original/file-20221102-26775-6l91zv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492907/original/file-20221102-26775-6l91zv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492907/original/file-20221102-26775-6l91zv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492907/original/file-20221102-26775-6l91zv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492907/original/file-20221102-26775-6l91zv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">More knowledge and energy led to division of labor and more innovation. This marble relief depicts a coppersmith’s shop in Pompei during the first century.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/roman-civilization-1st-century-a-d-pompei-marble-relief-news-photo/122222124">DEA/L. Pedicini/De Agostini via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>More energy supports more people. More people led to early settlements and, later, to cities. This allowed for task specialization and division of labor, which, in turn, accelerated the creation of more knowledge, which increased available energy and allowed population size to grow as well. And so on, and so on. </p>
<p>While the details of this process differ around the world, they are all driven by the same Anthropocene engine.</p>
<h2>The problem of exponential growth</h2>
<p>As an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=N5P-cI4AAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">evolutionary biologist and historian of science</a>, I have studied the evolution of knowledge and complexity for over three decades and have been <a href="https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2112.05876">developing mathematical models</a> with colleagues <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0058407">to help explain these</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.276.5309.122">processes</a>. Using the universality of the underlying processes driving the Anthropocene engine, we can capture these dynamics in the form of a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6QLenwsOEs&t=383s">growth equation</a>, which includes links between population growth and increasing energy use.</p>
<iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>One consequence of positive feedback cycles in dynamical systems is that they lead to exponential growth.</p>
<p>Exponential growth can start very slowly and be barely noticeable for quite some time. But eventually it will have dramatic consequences wherever resources are limited.</p>
<p>Driven by the Anthropocene engine, human population has grown exponentially, and individual societies have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1114845109">approached collapse</a> multiple times over the past 8,000 years. The disappearance of the Easter Island civilization and the <a href="https://hmsc.harvard.edu/file/1053329">collapse of the Mayan empire</a>, for example, have been linked to the depletion of environmental resources as populations rose. The dramatic decline of the European population during the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04800-3">Black Death in the 1300s</a> was a direct consequence of crowded and unsanitary living conditions that facilitated the spread of <em>Yersenia pestis</em>, or plague.</p>
<p>Biologist Paul Ehrlich warned about unchecked growth in his 1968 book “<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-long-fuse-the-population-bomb-is-still-ticking-50-years-after-its-publication-96090">The Population Bomb</a>,” predicting growing global demand for limited resources would lead to societal collapse without changes in human consumption.</p>
<p>But globally, humanity has always found a way to avoid doom. Knowledge-based innovations, such as the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution">Green Revolution</a> – the broad-scale effects of which Ehrlich did not foresee – have enabled people to reset the clock, leading to more cycles of innovation and (almost) collapse. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An illustration of a row of giant furnaces with steam coming out, rail cars carrying coal and a stream engine, with workers scurrying about." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492905/original/file-20221102-20-msahko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492905/original/file-20221102-20-msahko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492905/original/file-20221102-20-msahko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492905/original/file-20221102-20-msahko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492905/original/file-20221102-20-msahko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=699&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492905/original/file-20221102-20-msahko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=699&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492905/original/file-20221102-20-msahko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=699&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fossil fuels and the Industrial Revolution changed the face of Britain and the Western world in the span of a few decades starting in the late 1700s.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-industrial-revolution-age-of-steel-blast-furnaces-by-news-photo/1053836066">Hulton Archive/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One example is the sequence of energy regimes. It started with wood and animal power. Then came coal, oil and gas.</p>
<p>Fossil fuels powered the Industrial Revolution, and with it, greater wealth and advances in health care. But the age of fossil fuels has had dramatic consequences. It almost doubled the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in less than 300 years, causing the unprecedented speed of global warming that humanity is experiencing today. </p>
<p>At the same time, inequality has become endemic. Poorer nations that contributed little to climate change are suffering the most from global warming, while just 20 wealthier countries are <a href="https://www.oecd.org/tax/g20-economies-are-pricing-more-carbon-emissions-but-stronger-globally-more-coherent-policy-action-is-needed-to-meet-climate-goals-says-oecd.htm">responsible for about 80%</a> of emissions.</p>
<iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/climate-change?time=-400000..latest&facet=none&hideControls=true&Metric=CO%E2%82%82+concentrations&Long-run+series%3F=true&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The next energy transition to avoid collapse is underway now with the rise of renewable energy sources like wind and solar power. But <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/">studies</a> – including a report released ahead of the <a href="https://cop27.eg/#/">2022 U.N. Climate Change Conference</a> in November – <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">show</a> humans aren’t evolving their energy use fast enough to keep climate change in check.</p>
<h2>Using knowledge to reset the cycle again</h2>
<p>Every species, if left unchecked, would grow exponentially. But species are subject to constraints – or negative feedback mechanisms – such as predators and limited food supplies.</p>
<p>The Anthropocene engine has allowed humans to emancipate ourselves from many of the negative feedback mechanisms that otherwise would have kept the population’s growth in check. We intensified food production, developed trade among regions and discovered medications to survive diseases. </p>
<p>Where does this leave humanity now? Are we approaching inevitable collapse from climate change of our own making, or can we transition again and discover innovations that reset the cycle?</p>
<p>Introducing negative feedback into our socioeconomic-technical systems – not as radical population control or war, but in the form of norms, values and regulations on excess greenhouse gas emissions – can help keep climate change in check. </p>
<p>Humanity can use knowledge to keep itself within its environmental boundaries.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated Nov. 15, 2022, to reflect the population passing 8 billion.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193075/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Manfred Laubichler receives funding from The National Science Foundation. He is affiliated with the Santa Fe Institute, the Max Planck Institute for the History of Science, the Complexity Science Hub, Vienna, and the Global Climate Forum. </span></em></p>The UN estimates the global population will pass 8 billion people on Nov. 15, 2022. From the Stone Age to today, here’s how things spiraled out of control.Manfred Laubichler, Global Futures Professor and President’s Professor of Theoretical Biology and History of Biology, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1898512022-09-29T14:07:24Z2022-09-29T14:07:24ZForeign investment into Nigeria has fallen sharply: rights and freedoms may be one reason<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482945/original/file-20220906-12-e9yk9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nigeria's economy needs to diversify away from oil. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/workers-rehabilitate-the-new-port-harcourt-refinery-built-news-photo/489227316?adppopup=true">Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nigeria has always managed to attract foreign direct investment despite its poor economic outlook. This is thanks to its <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/oil/nigeria-oil/">oil reserves</a> and the consumption potential of its <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/nigeria-population">large population</a>. </p>
<p>But these inflows of foreign investment have been in decline and now seem to have hit a halt. Over the past five years, foreign direct investment in Nigeria has dropped by almost <a href="https://hallmarknews.com/nigerias-fdi-reduced-by-81-in-4-years-nbs/">80%</a>. This partly reflects a broader trend for the region: according to the <a href="https://www.afdb.org/en">African Development Bank</a>, inward investment fell by <a href="https://www.afdb.org/en/documents/african-economic-outlook-2022">almost 24%</a> between 2019 and 2020. Investors around the world <a href="https://fbj.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s43093-022-00129-5">were also cautious</a> about risky markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. </p>
<p>But foreign investment inflows to Nigeria had been falling even before the pandemic. The country’s net inflows based on balance of payments <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/nigeria/publication/nigeria-development-update-ndu">fell</a> from about US$9 billion in 2012 to below US$1 billion in 2018. </p>
<p>So Nigeria’s 80% drop is steeper than the region’s, which suggests that there is another dynamic at play. </p>
<p>Economists have looked at a range of factors that contribute to a drop in foreign direct investment. These include <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304387808000382?casa_token=qvA1bHz29skAAAAA:Y-GOIHAJorqW1PSnNjXOOjjnreYJNI4Efpfv2ZAD-cu9_6VGmzizR0S_qtwrBTmdQzwmazkkDi8">institutional underdevelopment</a>, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/reversal-of-fortunes-democratic-institutions-and-foreign-direct-investment-inflows-to-developing-countries/92316DFB2BC9DE4D88409E8CF0835310">property rights</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969593118305997">country regulations</a>.</p>
<p>In a paper <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15228916.2019.1583975">published in 2020</a>, I explored the role institutions play in determining foreign direct investment flows. I looked specifically at developing country contexts. I looked at three separate categories of institutions: civil and political liberties, freehold property rights and non-freehold (customary) property rights, with particular attention given to the two property rights. </p>
<p>My findings suggest that, in the case of Nigeria, in the short run, institutions have played a role in determining foreign direct investment. I found that the curtailing of land rights, in the form of the right to manage and the right to use, may have contributed to the fall in foreign direct investment inflows. </p>
<p>An example is the <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/nigeria/resolving-farmer-herder-conflicts">herder-farmer conflict</a> which has spread from the northern part of Nigeria to the middle belt. This has impaired the right of farmers to manage their property. A knock-on effect is that potential investors in commercial farming ventures – or otherwise – may become cautious.</p>
<h2>A slow unravelling</h2>
<p>There have been drastic changes in the quality of Nigeria’s institutions over time. This goes as far back as pre-independence. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://archive.gazettes.africa/archive/ng/1978/ng-government-gazette-supplement-dated-1978-03-29-no-14-part-a.pdf">Land Use Act of 1978</a> resulted in a rise in land disputes and litigation. During the 1990s military rule period, it became compulsory to renew certificates of occupancy – the legal documents that prove that a person owns land. The certificates are usually required to occupy the property on a daily basis, to sign a contract to sell it and to close a mortgage on it. </p>
<p>Then in 2018, the government announced plans to implement the Rural Grazing Area settlement programme to deal with conflicts between crop farmers and herders. This led to accusations that the government was grabbing land through the back door. The policy was <a href="https://punchng.com/fg-replaces-controversial-ruga-with-new-scheme-begins-camps-in-six-states/">suspended in 2019</a>. </p>
<p>All these changes had implications for both freehold and customary land rights. But did that in turn affect investment?</p>
<p>The study found no evidence of a long-run relationship between any of the institutional variables and foreign direct investment. Surprisingly, freehold property rights did not play a significant role. Evidence generally points in the direction of secure property rights attracting investment, because multinational companies feel better protected and commercial farmers can make long-term plans. Examples include <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014759670800022X?casa_token=nYf2DKkaTKwAAAAA:J4QU6oa10jhfsOspPT9Iiope8uFa6FfuQXgoAVVXr88T9-306r33PQ9sjg3zoyFpIMECrxJqvXY">China</a> and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1813-6982.2011.01283.x?casa_token=xKkCoORZtpgAAAAA%3A1Q9wNlLu3XEMFJRt25AQEf-mNLWVhcAocZ_qeRlD9OeSUnhJX-2s9cpTYPGnpvlOROyUtLVIQRH9n4qY">Zimbabwe</a>.</p>
<p>The short-run – an empirical analysis that takes first difference of the data, to extract short-run attributes – evidence was that the relationship between civil and political liberties and foreign direct investment inflows was significant. So was the relationship between non-freehold property rights and foreign direct investment. </p>
<p>While the political institutions effect is expected, the customary (non-freehold) land rights, which is often neglected by policymakers, is surprising. In fact, this had the larger and only significant and positive relation to foreign direct investment.</p>
<p>What this suggests is that foreign direct investment inflows into Nigeria may react to changes in the quality of civil and political liberties, as well as customary property rights.</p>
<p>An even more interesting result was the significant role that the right to manage property played in attracting investment to Nigeria. This shows that while freehold property rights as a whole may not have a significant impact on investment in the immediate term, certain aspects of freehold property rights, such as the right to manage, are still important. </p>
<p>The right to manage property can involve managing tenants or appointing agents to do so. This is an example of how it affects foreign investment perceptions. The herder-farmer conflict may infringe on farmers’ right to manage their land and plan for long-term farming objectives, and potentially in other indirect ways as well.</p>
<h2>Sustaining Nigeria’s economy</h2>
<p>Nigeria has relied on the strength of its natural resources, population size and power as a consumer. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268012000481">Natural resources</a> often water the punishment effect of other confounding factors for foreign direct investment drops. These are no longer able to sustain the country. </p>
<p>The curtailing of land rights, in the form of the right to manage and the right to use, may have contributed to the fall in foreign direct investment inflows. </p>
<p>It will not be easy to solve the herder-farmer conflict. But recognising the way it’s linked to investment, and dedicating resources to addressing it, may be the necessary first step. Acknowledging the role of flailing property rights due to herder-farmer conflict, and then signalling political will to take this on, would assuage fears by potential investors.</p>
<p>Economic theory suggests foreign investment inflows should bring about increased productivity, technological innovation and better allocation of resources. All of these should lead to positive structural change in the recipient country. </p>
<p>Diversifying the economy away from oil would protect inflows from global oil price shocks. Nigeria should create an environment attractive to not just oil-targeted investment, but also industries that leverage the size of Nigeria’s population and their consumption potential.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189851/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Fadiran does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There should be a better long-term strategy for foreign direct investments in Nigeria that’s not tied to its oil reserves.David Fadiran, Research Fellow, Policy Research in Service and Manufacturing (PRISM), University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1865742022-07-18T13:49:42Z2022-07-18T13:49:42ZNigeria’s large, youthful population could be an asset or a burden<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473194/original/file-20220708-21-ts9vsb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nigeria's large population of young people may become a burden if not healthy and well educated.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vendor-carries-nigerian-national-flags-on-october-1-2015-as-news-photo/490811636?adppopup=true">Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With a population estimated at <a href="https://guardian.ng/business-services/industry/nigerias-population-now-206m-says-npc/">206 million in 2020</a>, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/">seventh in the world</a>.</p>
<p>The country’s <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_LqDbc249sq_bo_Cmpa8VSZBmk8fHJSj/view">population is growing at 2.6% a year</a>, one of the fastest rates globally. At this rate, Nigeria’s population could double within the next 25 to 30 years. </p>
<p>Nigeria’s population structure is potentially an economic asset. The country has the largest <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/">population of youth</a> in the world, with a median age of 18.1 years. <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/">About</a> 70% of the population are under 30, and 42% are under the age of 15. </p>
<p>The size and youthfulness of the population offer great potential to expand Nigeria’s capacity as the regional economic hub of Africa and globally. A young, large population could be an economic asset because population growth and urbanisation go together and <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/can-rapid-population-growth-be-good-for-economic-development">economic development is closely correlated with urbanisation</a>. Population growth increases density and, together with rural-urban migration, creates higher urban agglomeration. This can help companies in producing goods in larger numbers and more cheaply, serving a larger number of low-income customers. </p>
<p>But the potential needs to be properly harnessed. Leaders must invest (through health and education) and adopt strong policies to create an environment where this human resource is used optimally. Such was the case among the Asian Tiger countries, which invested massively in technology, infrastructure and education.</p>
<p>Nigeria is, by every measure of socioeconomic progress, failing to develop its endowment of young people. Millions of young people have a poor quality of life, including a lack of education, low living standards and poor health outcomes. </p>
<p>Nigeria is not reaping the benefits of its current population structure and must do more to mitigate the negatives. A large population of unskilled, economically unproductive, unhealthy and poorly educated young people is also a burden to society.</p>
<h2>Poor human development</h2>
<p>Nigeria was ranked 158 of 185 countries in the <a href="https://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/Country-Profiles/NGA.pdf">2019 Human Development Index</a>. A <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/03/21/afw-deep-structural-reforms-guided-by-evidence-are-urgently-needed-to-lift-millions-of-nigerians-out-of-poverty#:%7E:text=According%20to%20the%20report%2C%20which,below%20the%20national%20poverty%20line.">2022 World Bank report</a> also says about 40% of Nigerians live below the national poverty line of U$1.90 per day and about 95.2 million are in poverty. About <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/agriculture/agric-news/516720-19-4-million-nigerians-to-face-food-insecurity-by-august-2022-fao.html">19.4 million Nigerians</a> are likely to face food insecurity in 2022. </p>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.unicef.org/nigeria/education">UNICEF</a>, Nigeria accounts for 20% of the world’s children who are out of school. In absolute terms, about 10.5 million children, the majority of whom are girls, do not have access to education in Nigeria.</p>
<p><a href="https://nigerianstat.gov.ng/elibrary/read/856">Unemployment is high at 33.3%</a>. Most of those who are unemployed are women and young people. Of those with jobs, over 20% are underemployed as they don’t earn enough.</p>
<h2>Health indicators</h2>
<p>Most of the health indicators in Nigeria are disturbing. Health is key for human development and this means that Nigeria is lagging behind in development.</p>
<p>Health facilities are at sub-optimal levels. Nigerians <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2821%2902488-0">currently</a> have a lower life expectancy (54 years) than many of their neighbours. The country’s burden of chronic and infectious diseases is high. While infectious diseases remain the primary causes of death in the country, <a href="https://www.afro.who.int/news/nigeria-fulfils-commitment-launches-plan-prevention-and-control-non-communicable-diseases">non-communicable diseases account for 3 out of every 10 deaths</a>.</p>
<p>While Nigeria is failing to develop her human capital, Nigerians are making more babies, adding to the potential burden.</p>
<h2>Fertility</h2>
<p>The national fertility rate stands at <a href="https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/SR264/SR264.pdf">about</a> 5 children per woman. There are regional variations. It is also lower in urban areas (4.5) than in rural areas (5.9); lower in the Southwest (3.9) than in the Northwest (6.6). In other words, poorer households are worse off, particularly those in the rural areas. Also, poor women and those with no or low education are disproportionately affected.</p>
<p>There were <a href="https://www.dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/FR359/FR359.pdf">20 adolescent mothers (aged 15-19) among every 100 adolescent girls </a> in Nigeria, with <a href="https://archpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13690-022-00789-3">wide variations</a> across states and regions. This is <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.3402/gha.v8.29745">among the highest in the world</a> and is associated with high risk births, adverse social-economic consequences, limited opportunities and a likely pathway to <a href="http://www.ghheadlines.com/agency/ghana-news-agency/20191112/132518617/adolescent-parenthood-escalates-generational-poverty-nigerian-professor">intergenerational poverty</a>. </p>
<p>The unmet need for modern contraception has been estimated at <a href="https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/SR264/SR264.pdf">over 20%</a>. Modern contraceptives help to prevent unwanted pregnancy. This is imperative for improving maternal and child health. A lack of access to contraception perpetuates the high maternal and infant mortality, and high fertility in the country.</p>
<p>Currently, the infant mortality <a href="https://data.unicef.org/country/nga/#/">is 72 deaths per 1,000 live births</a>. Maternal mortality is estimated at 512 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births. The national target is to reduce maternal mortality to 72 per 100,000 live births and zero deaths by 2030. </p>
<h2>High dependency</h2>
<p>Nigeria has a relatively high and growing population of dependants. This could put a strain on those who provide for them. Young people account for a bigger share of the dependants, a situation which will get worse unless there is a deliberate public policy to address high fertility.</p>
<p>The age structure of the population suggests that for every 100 people in the economically active age group (15-64), there are 86 dependants (under 15 and over 64). This compares with the <a href="https://www.worldeconomics.com/Country-Data/">78.1 average</a> for the African continent, 52 for South Africa.</p>
<p>There are <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.65UP.TO?end=2021&locations=NG&start=2021&view=bar">about 6 million people aged over 65</a>. Though this equates to only 3% of population, it is numerically larger than the population of some states in Nigeria. In 2020, <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1203462/dependency-ratio-in-nigeria/#:%7E:text=In%202020%2C%20the%20elderly%20dependency,(15%20to%2064%20years).">the elderly dependency ratio in Nigeria stood at 5.1</a>. This means that there were about five people aged 65 years and older that depend on every 100 people of working age (15 to 64 years). This number of dependants, in addition to children, can reduce the capacity of the working age population to save and invest. </p>
<p>Other groups with high dependency in Nigeria are those with disabilities and the displaced. </p>
<p>The percentage of disabled Nigerians stands at <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_LqDbc249sq_bo_Cmpa8VSZBmk8fHJSj/view">about</a> 2.3%, comparable to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09687599.2018.1556491">Ghana’s 3%</a>, but far less than <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=percentage+of+disability+in+south+africa+population&oq=percentage+of+disability+in+south+africa+population&aqs=chrome..69i57.13625j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8">South Africa’s 7.5%</a>. But Nigeria <a href="https://www.scidev.net/sub-saharan-africa/features/facts-figures-disabilities-in-developing-countries-1/">doesn’t have plans</a> for addressing the needs of its disabled.</p>
<p>The country is also home to <a href="https://data.unhcr.org/en/country/nga#_ga=2.105709184.2034587582.1657237059-239904064.1657237059">over 3 million internally displaced people</a> and <a href="https://data.unhcr.org/en/country/nga#_ga=2.105709184.2034587582.1657237059-239904064.1657237059">over 82,000 international refugees</a>, mostly from neighbouring countries.</p>
<h2>Demographic dividend</h2>
<p>Nigeria needs to balance population growth with economic prosperity. This makes it possible to achieve a demographic dividend – faster economic growth arising from a favourable population age structure and favourable social and economic policies. </p>
<p>Some countries in Asia including <a href="https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/events/pdf/expert/9/wang.pdf">China</a>, <a href="https://www.cgdev.org/blog/what-comes-after-demographic-dividend-east-asia-finding-out">Hong Kong</a>, <a href="https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/99030/2005_06_East_Asian_Economic.pdf">South Korea</a> and <a href="https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/99030/2005_06_East_Asian_Economic.pdf">Singapore</a> have benefited substantially from this. Nigeria should aim to make a transition to low birth and death rates. Government at all levels must invest towards addressing high fertility and mortality. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-2022-census-is-overdue-but-preparation-is-in-doubt-177781">Nigeria's 2022 census is overdue but preparation is in doubt</a>
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<p>Nigerians need to embrace family planning and address some of the root causes of high fertility, including sociocultural factors. A reduction in fertility by one child per childbearing woman <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(12)60827-7.pdf">would lead to a 13% increase</a> in Nigeria’s GDP per capita in 20 years or a 25% increase over 50 years.</p>
<p>As stated in the <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_LqDbc249sq_bo_Cmpa8VSZBmk8fHJSj/view">population policy document</a>, Nigeria should aim to reduce fertility from the current 5.3% to 4.3% by 2030. Family planning should be available to all and there should be no maternal deaths by 2030.</p>
<p>Education is key to good health, empowerment, employment and peaceful societies. It offers the best return on investment. Graduates in sub-Saharan Africa earn <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/442521523465644318/pdf/WPS8402.pdf">21% more than</a> those without tertiary education.</p>
<p>Nigeria must prioritise investment in education, health and infrastructure to harness the opportunities of its huge population. But Nigerians have a role to play too. They must make rational decisions and choices. These include choices about investment in quality of life, healthy living, fertility reduction and the empowerment of young people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186574/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>There is nothing to disclose.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Akanni Ibukun Akinyemi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nigeria must prioritise investment in education, health and infrastructure to harness the opportunities of its huge population.Akanni Ibukun Akinyemi, Professor of Demography and Social Statistics., Obafemi Awolowo UniversityJacob Wale Mobolaji, Lecturer, Demography and Social Statistics, Obafemi Awolowo UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1849202022-07-12T12:33:13Z2022-07-12T12:33:13ZWhat the controversial 1972 ‘Limits to Growth’ report got right: Our choices today shape future conditions for life on Earth<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473446/original/file-20220711-19-jg3tta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3000%2C1500&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Image of Earth's city lights, created with data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-image-of-earths-city-lights-was-created-with-data-from-news-photo/1594390">NASA/Newsmakers via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The 1970s launched an <a href="https://environmentalhistory.org/20th-century/seventies-1970-79/">environmental reckoning</a> across the U.S. Spurred by rising public concern, corporations and national leaders pledged to protect resources, and created new laws and agencies to lead that effort.</p>
<p>Amid these discussions, a group of <a href="https://archive.org/details/limitstogrowthr00mead">researchers at MIT</a> tackled a far-reaching question: How long can humanity keep growing and consuming at its current rate? </p>
<p>Using computer modeling, they came up with <a href="https://www.clubofrome.org/publication/the-limits-to-growth/">an ominous answer</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“If the present growth trends in world population, industrialization, pollution, food production, and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the next one hundred years. The most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Their report, “<a href="https://www.clubofrome.org/publication/the-limits-to-growth/">The Limits to Growth</a>,” generated widespread controversy when it was published in 1972. It was an intellectual extension of biologist <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Stanford-University">Paul Ehrlich’s</a> thesis in his 1968 bestseller “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Population_Bomb">The Population Bomb</a>,” which predicted that aggregate world demand for resources, driven by population growth, would lead to future starvation. Some predictions in “The Limits to Growth” were impressively accurate, while others proved to be way off. </p>
<p>As an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=lfkXE9kAAAAJ&hl=en">environmental economist</a>, I tend to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-cost-of-climate-change-cant-be-boiled-down-to-one-right-number-despite-some-economists-best-attempts-176432">skeptical that any one model</a> can explain how the global economy operates at a single point in time, let alone predict global conditions in 2100. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, I believe “The Limits to Growth” got a larger point right: Humans must limit and soon reduce their aggregate production of greenhouse gas emissions. The authors anticipated the potential for the world’s economy to shift to cleaner sources of energy, noting that “If man’s energy needs are someday supplied by nuclear power instead of fossil fuels, this increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide will eventually cease, one hopes before it has had any measurable ecological or climatological effect.” </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473448/original/file-20220711-12-xctoxj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing world growth declining radically" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473448/original/file-20220711-12-xctoxj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473448/original/file-20220711-12-xctoxj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473448/original/file-20220711-12-xctoxj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473448/original/file-20220711-12-xctoxj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473448/original/file-20220711-12-xctoxj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=767&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473448/original/file-20220711-12-xctoxj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=767&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473448/original/file-20220711-12-xctoxj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=767&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A figure from ‘The Limits to Growth,’ with consumption continuing at the 1970 rate. Depletion of nonrenewable resources leads to a collapse of industrial production, with growth stopping before 2100.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Limits-to-growth-figure-35.svg">YaguraStation/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Extrapolating resource use</h2>
<p>The MIT <a href="https://www.clubofrome.org/publication/the-limits-to-growth/">research team</a> that produced “The Limits to Growth” focused on five basic factors that they claimed determined, and therefore ultimately limited, growth on Earth: population, agricultural production, natural resources, industrial production and pollution.</p>
<p>They hypothesized that a growing economy eventually devours its finite supplies of natural resources. If aggregate demand for resources such as wood, oil, rubber, copper and zinc increases as the world’s population grows and per capita income rises, they forecast that the world will eventually run out of these precious resources. </p>
<p>At its heart, this is an extrapolation exercise. If developing nations such as India catch up by the year 2035 to the U.S level of average income in the year 2000, the argument goes, then the average person in India in 2035 will consume the same quantity of natural resources as the average American did in 2000. This approach assumes that we can foresee a developing nation’s future consumption patterns by looking at consumption patterns in a rich country today. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473449/original/file-20220711-22-l70ka6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="World map showing nations' GDP per capita in 2020" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473449/original/file-20220711-22-l70ka6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473449/original/file-20220711-22-l70ka6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473449/original/file-20220711-22-l70ka6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473449/original/file-20220711-22-l70ka6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473449/original/file-20220711-22-l70ka6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473449/original/file-20220711-22-l70ka6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473449/original/file-20220711-22-l70ka6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wealth per capita varies widely around the world. Richer nations have much higher per capita resource consumption.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ourworldindata.org/economic-growth">Our World in Data</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Economists respond</h2>
<p>Economists have tended to be more optimistic that ongoing economic growth can slow population growth, accelerate technological progress and bring about new goods that offer consumers the services they desire without the negative environmental consequences associated with past consumption. </p>
<p>The Limits to Growth mindset implicitly assumes that our menu of consumption choices does not really change over time. Consider the vehicle market: In the year 2000, one could not buy a Tesla or Chevy Volt to get around without consuming fossil fuel. </p>
<p>A typical economist would argue that Elon Musk invested in Tesla because he anticipated rising demand for high-quality electric vehicles. In this sense, the belief that we could run out of oil helps us to adapt to expected scarcity by accelerating innovation. </p>
<p>Why? If the Limits to Growth hypothesis is correct, then future gas prices will soar as aggregate demand devours our finite supply of resources. And as gas prices rise, so will future demand for electric vehicles.</p>
<p>This point applies to more than cars. In a 1992 reassessment of “The Limits to Growth,” Nobel laureate <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2018/nordhaus/facts/">William Nordhaus</a> argued that rising aggregate demand for natural resources traded in markets, such as oil, wood and copper, will lead to rising prices. This scarcity signal will encourage buyers to <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2534581?seq=1">substitute other products</a> for increasingly expensive resources. </p>
<p>Economists tend to be optimistic that we can always find substitutes for resources that are becoming increasingly scarce. “The Limits to Growth” implicitly assumed that such possibilities were limited. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1147950913698639873"}"></div></p>
<p>For-profit firms constantly design new products to attract consumers. Some goods, such as smartphones, may <a href="https://www.getorchard.com/blog/environmental-impact-of-the-iphone/?amp=1">deplete natural resources</a>. But others have smaller environmental footprints than the products they replace, and those eco-benefits <a href="https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=27989">can help attract customers</a>.</p>
<p>For example, affluent people today are choosing to eat less red meat <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/07315724.2014.976890">to improve their health</a>. Innovative firms are designing “<a href="https://impossiblefoods.com/">fake meat</a>” to cater to those consumers. If more consumers substitute fake meat for meat, then the <a href="https://foodprint.org/blog/climate-change-report/">perverse environmental impacts</a> of global caloric intake decline. </p>
<p>“The Limits to Growth” emphasized population and income growth as key determinants of resource collapse. But worldwide, as people move to cities and their earnings rise, they tend to <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w29948">marry later and have fewer children</a>. Nobel laureate <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1992/becker/facts/">Gary Becker</a> argues that choosing to have fewer children represents prioritizing quality over quantity of children. Such household choices help to <a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/12/11/why-the-demographic-transition-is-speeding-up">reduce aggregate population growth</a> and defuse the “population bomb.”</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pUbHGI-kHsU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Copenhagen offers a model for sustainable urban development, with a goal of carbon neutrality by 2025.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The limits that matter today</h2>
<p>Today, <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2022/02/28/pr-wgii-ar6/">scientists</a> and <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2582051/defense-secretary-calls-climate-change-an-existential-threat/">policymakers</a> widely agree that climate change is an overriding challenge worldwide. But the risk isn’t running out of resources. Rather, it is warming Earth drastically enough to produce heat waves, wildfires, floods and other impacts on catastrophic scales.</p>
<p>The standard economic policy prescription for cutting greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change is adopting a <a href="https://www.carbontax.org/where-carbon-is-taxed-overview/">carbon tax</a>. This gives consumers an incentive to use less fossil fuel and businesses an incentive to produce better low-carbon technologies, such as electric vehicles and green power. </p>
<p>If every nation enacted a carbon tax that rises over time, then economists would be confident that we could avoid the most severe negative effects of global economic growth. Why? A great race would unfold, with carbon emissions per dollar of global gross domestic product declining faster than economic growth would rise and global emissions declining. </p>
<p>The vast majority of economists believe that <a href="https://lantpritchett.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Basics-legatum-paper_short.pdf">economic growth</a> is essential for improving the lives of billions in the developing world. As people invest in their education and urbanize, economic logic predicts that population growth will slow. And energy efficiency will increase if energy prices are rising over time, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1162/003355399556188">due to induced innovation</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473452/original/file-20220711-24-a2ls8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Children stand in line in a slum, carrying large plastic jugs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473452/original/file-20220711-24-a2ls8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473452/original/file-20220711-24-a2ls8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473452/original/file-20220711-24-a2ls8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473452/original/file-20220711-24-a2ls8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473452/original/file-20220711-24-a2ls8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473452/original/file-20220711-24-a2ls8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473452/original/file-20220711-24-a2ls8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Children stand in line to receive free water distributed by the Kenyan government in Nairobi, April 7, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/children-queue-with-their-jerrycans-to-fill-them-with-free-news-photo/1209347550">Gordwin Odhiambo/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>Climate scientists are analyzing <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022">how much nations must reduce their aggregate emissions</a> to avoid climate change on a catastrophic scale. Ideally, climate mitigation policies can be fine-tuned to balance ongoing global per capita income growth while staying within the aggregate emissions constraints prescribed by climate science research. </p>
<p>Since the full costs of runaway climate change aren’t known, many economists have embraced the idea of reducing carbon emissions as <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691171326/climate-shock">insurance against extreme climate risks</a>. Call it a “limit to carbon growth.” Ongoing efforts to invest in climate change adaptation, and nascent efforts to explore the potential of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-007-9174-8">geoengineering</a>, provide humanity with additional strategies for coping with the consequences of our past carbon growth.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184920/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew E. Kahn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A 1972 report warned that unchecked consumption could crater the world economy by 2100. Fifty years and much debate later, can humanity innovate quickly enough to avoid that fate?Matthew E. Kahn, Provost Professor of Economics and Spatial Sciences, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1859542022-07-06T02:18:51Z2022-07-06T02:18:51ZWhat it means to identify as Indigenous in Australia, and how this might have contributed to the increase in the census<p>There are now almost one million Indigenous people in Australia, according to the 2021 Census. </p>
<p>The estimated Indigenous population of <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/census/about-census/census-statistical-independent-assurance-panel-report/35-aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-peoples#3-5-6-net-undercount">983,300 people</a> in August 2021 has increased from 798,000 in 2016. This translates into population growth of around 4.6% per year, accelerating from 3.5% between 2011 and 2016.</p>
<p>This rapid increase is much faster than can be accounted for by births alone. It also reflects changes to how people answer the question on “Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander origin” in the census.</p>
<p>What does this mean for Indigenous identity? The census defines Indigenous people as those of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/census/guide-census-data/census-dictionary/2021/variables-topic/aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-peoples/indigenous-status-ingp">origin</a>, not according to skin colour or Indigenous community recognition.</p>
<p>However, there is <a href="https://doi.org/10.37970/aps.v5i2.89">a strong case</a> for the census to better recognise Indigenous identities according to the structures meaningful to Indigenous peoples in Australia today.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-population-has-increased-but-the-census-lacks-detail-in-other-facets-of-indigenous-lives-185692">Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population has increased, but the census lacks detail in other facets of Indigenous lives</a>
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<h2>A rapidly growing population</h2>
<p>Between 2016 and 2021, the number of people directly recorded in the census as being of “Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander origin” <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-peoples/aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-people-census/2021">increased</a> from 649,200 to 812,700. However, this is an undercount of the Indigenous population, as it doesn’t include the Indigenous people who are among the 1.2 million Australians who either didn’t answer the Indigenous status question on the census form or didn’t return a form at all. After adjusting for this, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) estimates the Indigenous population is more like 983,000. However, we will focus on the census count, for which more data is currently available.</p>
<p>The increase in the census count of 163,500 Indigenous people can only partly be accounted for by the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/quickstats/2021/IQSAUS">85,900</a> Indigenous babies born between 2016 and 2021 and counted in the census. Further, according to life expectancy <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-peoples/life-tables-aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-australians/2015-2017">statistics</a>, we expect around 14,700 Indigenous people who were counted in 2016 to have since passed away. </p>
<p>Adding these two together, we calculate that if the Indigenous population had changed only because of births and deaths between 2016 and 2021, the census count would have reached only 720,400 in 2021, not 812,700. This leaves an “unexplained” increase of 92,300.</p>
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<h2>Understanding the population increase</h2>
<p>Three different factors contribute to this “unexplained” population increase.
The first is that census coverage changes. If Indigenous households are becoming more willing to participate in the census, or the ABS is reaching more Indigenous households, this could contribute to the “unexplained” increase. But according to the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/census/about-census/census-statistical-independent-assurance-panel-report/35-aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-peoples#3-5-6-net-undercount">ABS’s report</a>, this does not seem to be the case. </p>
<p>The second factor is migration: if more Indigenous people returned to Australia from overseas than left between 2016 and 2021, this could contribute to the increase. </p>
<p>The third is net identification change, whereby people who previously did not state they are of “Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander origin” in the census now choose to do so.</p>
<p>Of these three factors, net identification change appears to be the largest contributor.</p>
<p>The increase in the number of Indigenous people aged 65 or older from 31,000 in 2016 to 47,700 in 2021 has been widely <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/nitv/article/2022/06/28/data-shows-australias-growing-indigenous-identity">remarked upon</a>. Around 71% of this increase can be accounted for by Indigenous population ageing and mortality, with 29% remaining unexplained by demographic factors. </p>
<p>In other age groups, identification change is a larger contributor to population increase. High levels of identification change among children continues <a href="https://caepr.cass.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/docs/CAEPR_TopicalIssue_No1_2018.pdf">a trend</a> from previous censuses, possibly due to the form being filled out on children’s behalf by different adults in different years.</p>
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<p>Population growth is most significant in New South Wales and Queensland, with 68.9% of total Indigenous population increase and 71% of unexplained population increase occurring in these two states. In the Northern Territory, the Indigenous population is actually smaller than expected based on the 2016 Census.</p>
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<h2>How do people identify as First Nations?</h2>
<p>The question here is, why do Indigenous people identify in the census when it is a voluntary process? In my research on Aboriginal Melbourne, Aboriginal people were very thoughtful when they <a href="https://search.informit.org/doi/abs/10.3316/INFORMIT.719095017337514">chose</a> whether or not to identify as Aboriginal in the Census — or even whether to complete the Census at all.</p>
<p>Many Indigenous people identify in the census because they feel there are few negative consequences from doing so and they’re not being forced to. For them, the census is a safe place to “tick the box” and identify privately. Others feel it is their duty to represent their community through a population count and consider that participating will not impact on their claims to sovereignty. Some feel that times have changed, and where once perhaps they may have felt embarrassed to identify as Indigenous, this is no longer the case — this could be contributing to the increase in the population.</p>
<p>There is also resistance from First Nations people to participate in the census, which stems from early government policies and life experiences, such as child removal and incarceration. Some Aboriginal people from Melbourne consider the census to be another form of government surveillance.</p>
<p>First Nations identity has become subject to a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-09-28/bolt-found-guilty-of-breaching-discrimination-act/3025918?nw=0&r=Interactive">public debate</a>. First Nations scholar Bronwyn Carlson <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2022/06/28/indigenous-census-data/">argues</a> increasing census counts aren’t necessarily evidence of a population increase, but rather just statistical methods catching up with reality. She has also <a href="https://theconversation.com/aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-population-has-increased-but-the-census-lacks-detail-in-other-facets-of-indigenous-lives-185692">highlighted the fact</a> the census doesn’t capture Indigenous ways of living.</p>
<p>This can result in a mismatch between what the census measures and different views of what it means to be Indigenous or First Nations. The census <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/2901.0Chapter37202016">defines Indigeneity</a> in terms of self-reported “origin” or ancestry. This is a very different criterion to the government-preferred “working definition”, which <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/australias-welfare/profile-of-indigenous-australians">states</a> an Indigenous person is someone accepted as an Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander person by Indigenous community members.</p>
<p>Indigenous identity is made of many things today: pride, kinship knowledge, language revival, history, music, art, connection to Country, caring for Country, and the cultural responsibilities of educating our people and, for some, the wider population too. These things are <a href="https://theconversation.com/aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-population-has-increased-but-the-census-lacks-detail-in-other-facets-of-indigenous-lives-185692">not measured</a> in the Census.</p>
<p>Social media has been a great reinforcer of identity and kinship connections. This has made it easier for younger generations to identify with each other and Elders, and to find out if they are related. </p>
<p>First Nations Elders are proud of the achievements of their community, such as rapper Briggs, actress Leah Purcell, and sportspeople like Ashleigh Barty and Paddy Mills. Whatever the Census has to say, identity is something First Nations people understand and define for themselves.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185954/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julie Andrews receives funding from Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francis Markham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>According to the 2021 Census there are now almost one million Indigenous people in Australia. Although increase in population is a reason for this, there are some other factors to consider.Julie Andrews, Professor Indigenous Research & Convenor of Aboriginal Studies, La Trobe UniversityFrancis Markham, Research Fellow, Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1858452022-06-27T19:50:26Z2022-06-27T19:50:26ZAustralians are more millennial, multilingual and less religious: what the census reveals<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471566/original/file-20220629-26-ef2c9l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=173%2C371%2C2796%2C1754&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Australian Bureau of Statistics</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Census data to be <a href="https://abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/quickstats/2021/AUS">released Tuesday</a> shows Australia changing rapidly before COVID, gaining an extra one million residents from overseas in the past five years, almost all of them in the three years before borders were closed.</p>
<p>For the first time since the question has been asked in the census, more than half of Australia’s residents (51.5%) report being either born overseas or having an overseas-born parent. </p>
<p>More than one quarter of the one million new arrivals have come from India or Nepal. </p>
<p>The census shows so-called millennials (born between 1981 and 1995) are on the cusp of displacing baby boomers as Australia’s dominant generation.</p>
<p>Although the number of baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1965) has changed little, as a proportion of the population boomers have fallen from 25.4% in 2011 to 21.5%. Millennials have climbed from 20.4% to level pegging at 21.5%.</p>
<p>The changes are reflected in the answer to the question about religion, the only non-compulsory question in the census. Almost 40% of the population identified as having no religion, up from 30% in 2016, and 22% in 2011.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-well-off-you-are-depends-on-who-you-are-comparing-the-lives-of-australias-millennials-gen-xers-and-baby-boomers-172064">How well off you are depends on who you are. Comparing the lives of Australia's Millennials, Gen-Xers and Baby Boomers</a>
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<p>Whereas 47% of millennials identify as having no religion, only 31% of boomers fail to identify with a faith. Nearly 60% of boomers are Christian, compared to 30% of millennials.</p>
<p>The share of the population identifying as Christian has slipped from 52% to 44%. Other religions are growing, but remain small by comparison. Hinduism climbed from 1.9% of the population in 2016 to 2.7%. Islam climbed from 2.6% to 3.2%.</p>
<h2>The five-yearly snapshot</h2>
<p>Conducted every five years since 1961, and before that less often from 1911, and asking questions of every Australian household, the census provides information about the ways society is changing that couldn’t be obtained in any other way.</p>
<p>In the past five years the number of people who use a language other than English at home has climbed 792,000 to more than 5.6 million. 852,000 Australian residents identify as not speaking English well or at all.</p>
<p>Mandarin remains the most common language other than English used at home, used by 685,300 people, followed by Arabic with 367,200 people.</p>
<h2>The real value is in the detail</h2>
<p>The real value of the census is in the locational details. The information released on Tuesday will identify locations with any characteristic that needs particular services, such as the areas with more people who identify as not speaking English well or at all. It will also show which parts of Australia are growing in population and which parts are shrinking.</p>
<p>The broad-brush information released on Monday showed the number of single-parent families had climbed past one million. The information released on Tuesday will identify the suburbs and towns in which they live.</p>
<p>The information released on Monday showed the overall proportion of Australians owning their homes was little changed. The information released on Tuesday will report those proportions by age group and city.</p>
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<span class="caption">The thank you message for the 2021 census.</span>
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<h2>New questions</h2>
<p>Two new separate questions in the 2021 census ask about service in defence forces and long-term health conditions. </p>
<p>One quarter of veterans are aged 65-74, reflecting conscription during the Vietnam War. </p>
<p>More than two million Australians suffer long-term mental health conditions; more than two million suffer arthritis; and more than two million suffer asthma.</p>
<p>Tuesday’s figures will offer more detail on the locations of sufferers and details such as their income and occupations, as well as details such as whether those who’ve served in defence were conscripts, serving in Vietnam.</p>
<h2>Saved from the axe</h2>
<p>Seven years ago the Australian Bureau of Statistics tried to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/abs-is-behind-controversial-proposal-to-axe-the-2016-census-not-the-abbott-government-20150219-13j4az.html">axe</a> the five-yearly census, making it 10-yearly – as in the United Kingdom and the United States – to save money.</p>
<p>The outcry from planners and researchers who relied on the census resulted in the bureau being given an extra <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/federal-budget-2015-census-saved-250m-investment-in-bureau-of-statistics-20150506-ggvdrp.html">A$250 million</a> to ensure it continued.</p>
<p>Tuesday’s is the first of three census data releases. In October, the bureau will release information about education and employment and travel to work. </p>
<p>Early next year it will release location-specific socio-economic information and estimates of homelessness.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-religion-is-australias-second-largest-religious-group-and-its-having-a-profound-effect-on-our-laws-185697">'No religion' is Australia's second-largest religious group – and it's having a profound effect on our laws</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185845/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Martin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>India is now the third-largest birthplace of Australian residents behind Australia and England, while for the first time less than half of the population has identified as Christian.Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.