tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/trumpism-49051/articlesTrumpism – The Conversation2024-01-25T16:08:35Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2207302024-01-25T16:08:35Z2024-01-25T16:08:35ZWhat can we learn from the history of pre-war Germany to the atmosphere today in the U.S.?<p><em>The Guardian</em> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/13/end-of-democracy-bernie-sanders-on-if-trump-wins-and-how-to-stop-him">recently published an interview with U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders</a> about what happens if Donald Trump wins this year’s presidential election in the United States. </p>
<p>His dire answer: “It will be the end of democracy.”</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571242/original/file-20240124-23-tw39ed.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571242/original/file-20240124-23-tw39ed.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571242/original/file-20240124-23-tw39ed.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571242/original/file-20240124-23-tw39ed.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571242/original/file-20240124-23-tw39ed.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571242/original/file-20240124-23-tw39ed.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571242/original/file-20240124-23-tw39ed.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.sshrc-crsh.gc.ca/society-societe/icw-ca/index-eng.aspx">Prof. David Dyzenhaus will talk about his research on politics and the rule of law in an interview with Scott White, The Conversation Canada's Editor-in-Chief. Click here to join the event for free by registering.</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>The challenge the U.S. faces, Sanders said, “is to be able to show people that government in a democratic society can address their very serious needs. If we do that, we defeat Trump. If we do not, then we are the Weimar Republic of the early 1930s.”</p>
<p>Sanders is of course evoking the extreme political polarization and social discontent of the last three years of Germany’s first experiment with democracy. </p>
<p>That experiment ended with Adolf Hitler’s seizure of power in 1933. </p>
<p>The senator is right that there are frightening echoes of the end game of Weimar in western democracies. But in the U.S., at least, his timing is off. The United States already is the Weimar Republic of the early 1930s.</p>
<h2>Polarization in pre-war Germany</h2>
<p>Naturally, there are some differences. </p>
<p>In Germany, the main fault line of polarization was between the far-right factions, with the Nazi Party the most prominent, and the Communist Party — both of which contested elections with the express intention of destroying democracy if they won power. In contrast, the main division in the U.S. is between Democrats and the far-right groups that dominate Trump’s Republican party. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.law.utoronto.ca/faculty-staff/full-time-faculty/david-dyzenhaus">My expertise</a> is not political science but law, in particular the rule of law. I study the nature of law and its relationship to politics. </p>
<p>I wrote <a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/2553">a book about the problems of the legal and political order in pre-Hitler Germany</a> — and why those circumstances remain highly relevant to contemporary debates about what’s going on in the United States and other western democracies (including debates in <a href="https://www.law.utoronto.ca/news/demise-rule-law-in-canada-professor-david-dyzenhaus-lawyers-daily">Canada</a>).</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571267/original/file-20240124-17-ghk9c5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman and a man read a poster glued to a post." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571267/original/file-20240124-17-ghk9c5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571267/original/file-20240124-17-ghk9c5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571267/original/file-20240124-17-ghk9c5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571267/original/file-20240124-17-ghk9c5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571267/original/file-20240124-17-ghk9c5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571267/original/file-20240124-17-ghk9c5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571267/original/file-20240124-17-ghk9c5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Berlin citizens read the 1932 emergency powers decree.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>The <a href="https://www.theholocaustexplained.org/the-nazi-rise-to-power/the-weimar-republic/the-weimar-constitution/">Weimar Constitution</a> had existed for only 14 years when Hitler forced the German parliament to make his will the ultimate source of legal authority. </p>
<p>His path to power was facilitated by the ease with which Article 48 of the constitution — the emergency powers provision that allowed the president to bypass parliament — could be exploited.</p>
<h2>The resilience of the U.S. Constitution</h2>
<p>In contrast, the U.S. Constitution dates from 1789, which makes it the most established constitution of the oldest democracy. It showed its resilience on Jan. 6, 2021, in the failed attempt by Trump and his supporters to take power by insurrection after he lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2018/628309/EPRS_BRI(2018)628309_EN.pdf">Konrad Adenauer</a>, West Germany’s first president who was elected after the Second World War, later reflected that the problem with Weimar was not its constitution, but that there weren’t enough democrats — meaning politicians, judges, lawyers and others who believed in democracy.</p>
<p>Three years ago in the United States, only a small number of small-d democrats stood between a successful coup and Biden taking office: the Republican-appointed judges who rejected Trump’s attempts in the courts to contest particular elections, the Republican election officials who withstood the pressure to rig the votes in their districts and even Vice-President Mike Pence, though it seems that <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/09/dan-quayle-convinced-mike-pence-to-reject-trumps-coup.html">he wavered dangerously until the last minute</a>.</p>
<p>Weimar democracy was similarly salvageable until the end of 1932, and so the analogy between it and the U.S. in early 2024 is strong.</p>
<p>The role of lawyers and courts in such scenarios can be crucial.</p>
<h2>Coup d'etat in Prussia paved the way</h2>
<p>In 1932, the German federal government — dominated by right-wing aristocrats — used the emergency powers provision of the Weimar constitution to replace the legal state government of Prussia, one of 39 separate states that made up the German republic. <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2952263">This coup d’état effectively took over the powers</a> of a state that was the main bastion of democratic resistance to the extreme right-wing forces of the time.</p>
<p>At the time of the coup, the Prussian state government considered armed resistance. But because it felt such action would end in defeat and, as social democrats, they were committed to legality, they chose to challenge the constitutional validity of the decree before the Staatsgerichtshof — the court set up by the Weimar Constitution to resolve constitutional disputes between the federal government and the states in Germany’s federation.</p>
<p>After hearing oral arguments between Oct. 10-17, 1932, the court fudged its decision in a way that effectively upheld the decree in a judgment on Oct. 25.</p>
<p><a href="https://aeon.co/essays/carl-schmitts-legal-theory-legitimises-the-rule-of-the-strongman">This decision is regarded as a significant precursor to Hitler’s seizure of power in 1933</a> and his decision to make himself the ultimate source of legal authority in Germany, thus effectively putting him beyond the reach of the law.</p>
<p>Some of the most prominent legal scholars of the time appeared on both sides of the dispute, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23735189">including Carl Schmitt</a>, a fascist legal theorist who presented the federal government’s side in the Prussia case and then signed up with the Nazis after 1933.</p>
<h2>Nazi lawyer still admired</h2>
<p>Schmitt was determined throughout his career to use legal arguments to destroy liberal democracy from within. Today, <a href="https://www.nybooks.com/online/2020/01/15/william-barr-the-carl-schmitt-of-our-time/">Schmitt is very popular</a> — along with other right-wing figures from the Weimar period — with the far-right coterie of lawyers who tried to mastermind Trump’s own attempt at a coup in January 2021.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571266/original/file-20240124-29-wxuqg0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man is featured on the cover of an old academic journal" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571266/original/file-20240124-29-wxuqg0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571266/original/file-20240124-29-wxuqg0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=779&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571266/original/file-20240124-29-wxuqg0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=779&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571266/original/file-20240124-29-wxuqg0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=779&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571266/original/file-20240124-29-wxuqg0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=979&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571266/original/file-20240124-29-wxuqg0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=979&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571266/original/file-20240124-29-wxuqg0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=979&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">‘The View of the Third Reich’ – lawyer Carl Schmitt on the cover page of the German journal Der Wirtschafts-Ring (The Economic Ring) in 1934.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>The U.S. Supreme Court will soon <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-supreme-court-trump-cases-1.7064843">decide current</a> and potential future cases involving Trump’s challenges to the rule of law. For example, Trump has mused that if he is re-elected, <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/trump-wants-use-military-against-his-domestic-enemies-congress-must-act">he could use the Insurrection Act</a> to suppress any political protests.</p>
<p>The Supreme Court’s decisions on cases involving Trump’s legal authority could be as momentous for the future of democracy in the United States as the decision of Staatsgerichtshof in 1932.</p>
<p>With a majority of conservative judges on the U.S. Supreme Court — including Justice Clarence Thomas, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/virginia-thomas-the-wife-of-justice-clarence-thomas-agrees-to-interview-with-jan-6-panel">whose wife has been accused of trying to help Trump overturn his election defeat</a> — the portents for democracy and the rule of law are not good.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571242/original/file-20240124-23-tw39ed.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571242/original/file-20240124-23-tw39ed.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571242/original/file-20240124-23-tw39ed.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571242/original/file-20240124-23-tw39ed.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571242/original/file-20240124-23-tw39ed.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571242/original/file-20240124-23-tw39ed.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571242/original/file-20240124-23-tw39ed.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Prof. David Dyzenhaus will talk about his research on politics and the rule of law in an interview with Scott White, The Conversation Canada’s Editor-in-Chief. Click here to join the event for free by registering.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.sshrc-crsh.gc.ca/society-societe/icw-ca/index-eng.aspx">Prof. David Dyzenhaus will talk about his research on politics and the rule of law in an interview with Scott White, The Conversation Canada's Editor-in-Chief. Click here to join the event for free by registering.</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220730/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Dyzenhaus receives funding from SSHRC for related research projects</span></em></p>Adolf Hitler’s rise to power was aided by courts and lawyers in pre-war Germany. A similar situation exists today in the United States.David Dyzenhaus, Professor of Law and Philosophy, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2189492024-01-02T16:50:04Z2024-01-02T16:50:04ZWhy have authoritarianism and libertarianism merged? A political psychologist on ‘the vulnerability of the modern self’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564551/original/file-20231208-29-yahofn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=290%2C121%2C7790%2C4022&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The so-called Qanon shaman, Jacob Chansley, at the Capitol riot. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Johnny Silvercloud</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Logically, authoritarianism and libertarianism are contradictory. Supporters of authoritarian leaders share a state of mind in which they take direction from an idealised figurehead and closely identify with the group which that leader represents. To be libertarian is to see the freedom of the individual as the supreme principle of politics. It is core to the economics and politics of neo-liberalism, as well as to some bohemian counter-cultures. </p>
<p>As a state of mind, libertarianism is superficially the opposite of authoritarianism. Identification with the leader or group is anathema and all forms of authority are regarded with suspicion. Instead the ideal is to experience oneself as a self-contained, free agent. </p>
<p>Yet there is a history of these two outlooks being intertwined. Consider Donald Trump, whose re-election in 2024 would be seen by many as adding to the international rise of authoritarianism. </p>
<p><a href="https://unherd.com/2023/12/why-all-this-trump-hysteria/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups%5B0%5D=18743&tl_period_type=3">Others</a> might see him as insufficiently focused to be an effective authoritarian leader, but it’s not difficult to imagine him governing by executive order, and he has successfully sought an authoritarian relationship with his followers. He is an object of idealisation and a source of “truth” for the community of followers he purports to represent.</p>
<p>Yet at the same time, in his rhetoric and his persona of predatory freewheeler, in his wealth and indifference to others, Trump offers a hyper-realisation of a certain kind of individualistic freedom.</p>
<p>Trumpism’s fusion of the authoritarian and the libertarian was embodied in the January 6 attack in Washington DC. The insurgents who stormed the Capitol that day passionately wanted to install Trump as an autocratic leader. He had not, after all, won a democratic election.</p>
<p>But these people were also conducting a carnivalesque assertion of their individual rights, as they defined them, to attack the American state. Among them were followers of the bizarre conspiracy theory QAnon, who lionised Trump as the heroic authority figure secretly leading the fightback against a child-torturing cabal of elites. </p>
<p>Alongside them were the <a href="https://theconversation.com/proud-boys-members-convicted-of-seditious-conspiracy-3-essential-reads-on-the-group-and-right-wing-extremist-white-nationalism-205094">Proud Boys</a>, whose misty libertarianism is paired with a proto-authoritarian commitment to politics as violence.</p>
<h2>New age meets anti-vax</h2>
<p>Conspiracy theories are also involved in other recent examples of authoritarian-libertarian hybridity. Beliefs that COVID-19 vaccines (or lockdowns, or the virus itself) were attempts by a malevolent power to attack or control us were fuelled by a growing army of conspiracists. But they were also facilitated by libertarian ideologies which rationalise suspicion of and antipathy towards authority of all sorts – and support refusals to comply with public health measures. </p>
<p>In the UK, some small towns and rural areas have seen an influx of people involved in a variety of pursuits – arts and crafts, alternative medicine and other “wellness” practices, spirituality and mysticism. Research is lacking but a recent <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001mssl">BBC investigation</a> in the English town of Totnes showed how this can create a strong “alternative” ethos in which soft, hippie-ish forms of libertarianism are prominent – and very hospitable to conspiracism.</p>
<p>One might have thought that Totnes and some other towns like it would be the last places we’d find sympathy for authoritarian politics. However, the BBC investigation showed that although there may be no single dominant leader at work, new age anti-authority sentiments can morph into intolerance and hard-edged demands for retribution against the people seen as orchestrating vaccinations and lockdowns.</p>
<p>This is reflected in some COVID conspiracists calling for those who led the public health response to be tried at <a href="https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/98809">“Nuremberg 2.0”</a>, a special court where they should face the death penalty. </p>
<p>When we remember that a virulent sense of grievance against an enemy or oppressor who must be punished is a regular feature of authoritarian culture, we start to see how the dividing lines between the libertarian mindset and the authoritarian perspective have blurred around COVID.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/conspiracy-theories-about-the-pandemic-are-spreading-offline-as-well-as-through-social-media-167418">Conspiracy theories about the pandemic are spreading offline as well as through social media</a>
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<p>A <a href="https://savanta.com/knowledge-centre/published-polls/conspiracy-poll-kings-college-london-13-june-2023/">disturbing survey</a> conducted earlier this year for King’s College London even found that 23% of the sample would be prepared to take to the streets in support of a “deep state” conspiracy theory. And of that group, 60% believed the use of violence in the name of such a movement would be justified. </p>
<h2>Two responses to the same anxiety</h2>
<p>A psychological approach can help us to understand the dynamics of this puzzling fusion. As <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Escape-Freedom-Erich-Fromm-ebook/dp/B00BPJOC7W/ref=sr_1_6?crid=1N6JLLNQVVBYU&keywords=erich+fromm&qid=1702035192&s=books&sprefix=erich+from%2Cstripbooks%2C192&sr=1-6">Erich Fromm</a> and others have shown, our ideological affinities are linked to unconscious structures of feeling. </p>
<p>At this level, authoritarianism and libertarianism are the interchangeable products of the same underlying psychological difficulty: the <a href="https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007/978-3-030-61510-9_41-1">vulnerability of the modern self</a>.</p>
<p>Authoritarian political movements offer a sense of belonging to a collective, and of being protected by its strong leader. This may be completely illusory, but it nonetheless provides a sense of safety in a world of threatening change and risk. As individuals, we are vulnerable to feeling powerless and abandoned. As a group, we are safe.</p>
<p>Libertarianism, in contrast, proceeds from the illusion that as individuals we are fundamentally self-sufficient. We are independent of others and don’t need protection from authorities. This fantasy of freedom, like the authoritarian fantasy of the ideal leader, also generates a sense of invulnerability for those who believe in it.</p>
<p>Both outlooks serve to protect against the potentially overwhelming sense of being in a society on which we depend but which we feel we cannot trust. While politically divergent, they are psychologically equivalent. Both are ways for the vulnerable self to ward off existential anxieties. There is therefore a kind of belt-and-braces logic in toggling between them or even occupying both positions simultaneously.</p>
<p>In any specific context, authoritarianism is more likely to have the necessary focus and organisation to prevail. But its hybrid fusion with libertarianism will have broadened its support base by seducing people with anti-authority impulses.</p>
<p>And as things currently stand, we’re at risk of seeing increasing polarisation between, on one hand, this anxiety-driven, defensive form of combined politics, and on the other, efforts to preserve reality-based, non-defensive modes of political discourse.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218949/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barry Richards does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It is now not uncommon to find people supporting leaders like Donald Trump while insisting the state refrains from intervening in their lives.Barry Richards, Emeritus Professor of Political Psychology, Bournemouth UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2138562023-09-26T20:06:50Z2023-09-26T20:06:50ZWhy the Voice could be a bulwark against Trumpism gaining a stronger foothold in Australia<p>As former Labor minister <a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2023/09/16/the-voice-our-brexit-moment#mtr">Barry Jones</a> has wisely noted, the Voice referendum feels like 2016 all over again. </p>
<p>The shock from the Brexit vote in the United Kingdom in June of that year set the stage for what came next: the off-the-charts upheaval of the Donald Trump earthquake in the US presidential election. The only consolation was that Trump did not win a majority of votes in the United States. He won the presidency through the arcane, undemocratic workings of the Electoral College.</p>
<p>Maybe the Voice will prevail, as Senator <a href="https://edition.pagesuite.com/popovers/dynamic_article_popover.aspx?artguid=f20fba06-4ba8-441a-93e1-b73722700251">Pat Dodson</a> says: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I believe Australians are better than this. I believe Australians will look at this on the day and say, ‘Well this is a decent, honourable, good thing for us to do’. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>But given current projections, the best outcome on the referendum may well be a majority vote for “yes” nationally, but constitutional recognition of First Nations peoples and establishment of the Voice denied by the requirement that the measure be approved by a majority of the states. That can be a moral victory – that Australia’s heart did not go cold on its Indigenous peoples.</p>
<p>But we may not even get there. As with the Trump shock, it is hard to process how support for a benign, straightforward measure that opens the Constitution to Indigenous Australians and establishes an advisory committee on issues and policies crucial to their welfare could <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/ng-interactive/2023/sep/25/indigenous-voice-to-parliament-referendum-2023-poll-results-polling-latest-opinion-polls-yes-no-campaign-newspoll-essential-yougov-news-by-state-australia">dissipate</a> from 65% a year ago to just 43% today. </p>
<p>And how a proposal that enjoys unprecedented backing from the most powerful and influential institutions in the country, including those in business, labour, sport and culture, could be devoid of uplift and land with a thud.</p>
<h2>A campaign defined by fear-mongering</h2>
<p>US President Franklin D Roosevelt famously said when he first took office 90 years ago, “We have nothing to fear but fear itself”. Which is exactly how the prime minister has framed the Voice. Anthony Albanese has <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/don-t-be-distracted-by-controversy-bombs-pearson-urges-yes-campaign-20230915-p5e4wo.html">said</a> there is “nothing scary, nothing to be fearful of here”. </p>
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<p>You can’t change a country for the better through fear. You can only change it for the better through hope and optimism and being positive.</p>
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<p>But it is fear that is prevailing at this moment. The Advance Australia and Fair Australia telephone banks and their TikTok algorithms are infused with it. <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-campaign-s-fear-doubt-strategy-revealed-20230910-p5e3fu.html">Fair Australia callers</a> are telling undecided voters they have “heard” the Voice will mean monetary compensation to Aboriginal people, that the Voice will lead to the abolition of Australia Day, and that Voice proponents will push for a treaty. </p>
<p>The poison is spreading across the political landscape. Liberal Party politicians have been warned that those who support the Voice will lose their pre-selection for seats in parliament. Former ACT Chief Minister <a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2023/09/09/liberal-yes-supporters-threatened-with-losing-preselection?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_term=read_shared_article&utm_campaign=social_share_icons&utm_content=sidebar_share&s=03#mtr">Kate Carnell</a> has said</p>
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<p>This has been politicised to the point that people aren’t comfortable to campaign for what they believe in because of the politics. </p>
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<p>Perhaps this is baked in for the Liberal Party from its opposition to the Voice from the last three prime ministers: Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison. (Turnbull has since fully <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-my-government-didn-t-back-the-voice-but-i-m-now-voting-yes-20230829-p5e0a0.html">converted</a>.) They never presented a referendum even on just constitutional recognition.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-shut-down-far-right-extremism-in-australia-we-must-confront-the-ecosystem-of-hate-154269">To shut down far-right extremism in Australia, we must confront the ecosystem of hate</a>
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<h2>How Trump’s messages seep into Australia</h2>
<p>In “<a href="https://www.allenandunwin.com/browse/book/Bruce-Wolpe-Trump's-Australia-9781761068096">Trump’s Australia</a>”, my study of what could happen to Australia’s democracy and society if Trump returns to the presidency in 2024, I argue that approval of the Voice would help insulate Australia’s political culture from the corrosive effects of Trumpist messages from the news and social media.</p>
<p>Trump was the most divisive president America has ever had. In addition to his core values of “America First” nationalism, protectionism and isolationism, he also promoted nativism – <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/donald-trump-and-the-politics-of-fear/498116/">fear</a> of “the other.”</p>
<p>Australia, with its historically pervasive atmosphere of fear around Indigenous aspirations, is fertile territory for Trump and his rhetoric on race. </p>
<p>Trump knows how to push the fear buttons on race. He does not dog whistle. Take, for instance, his public demand in 1989 that New York reinstate the death penalty to punish the “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/17/central-park-five-donald-trump-jogger-rape-case-new-york">Central Park Five</a>” – the Black and Latino youths wrongly convicted of raping a woman in Central Park. Trump shouts his views from the podium. And we hear it here.</p>
<p>What could Australia’s democracy and society look like if Trump wins? What we are already hearing today from those leading the “no” campaign is an echo chamber of Trumpist sentiments for his supporters and acolytes here. </p>
<p>If he returns to power, Australia will undoubtedly see a steady flood of these messages via his social media posts and pronouncements from the Oval Office. His racially tinged views will only further harden the divisive sentiments on issues of racial equity here. </p>
<p>Trump is especially vocal in siding with police when <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/01/trump-police-brutality-golfers-406802">acts of brutality have occured</a> and when <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/22/us/politics/trump-federal-agents-cities.html">violent crime</a> has broken out in major cities. “Law and order” will be a recurrent theme in the 2024 presidential election, should Trump be the Republican candidate again. Trump supporters in Australia, including some who hold or aspire to public office, will pick up those messages and propagate them here. </p>
<p>We have already seen a dry run of these themes by his Australian allies at the <a href="https://twitter.com/cpacaustralia?lang=en">Conservative Political Action Conference</a> in Sydney in August – an offshoot of Trump’s CPAC base in the US. </p>
<p>The core message from the Sydney event: the Voice is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/inside-the-conservative-forum-rallying-troops-against-the-voice-20230819-p5dxsx.html">racially divisive</a> and is being foisted on the country by “the elites”. </p>
<p>Right on cue, neo-Nazis then marched in the streets of Melbourne last weekend under a banner that read “Voice = Anti White.” It had the same look and feel as the infamous <a href="https://time.com/4902129/president-donald-trump-both-sides-charlottesville/">white supremacist rally</a> in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017, which Trump said included some “very fine people”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/alt-right-white-extremism-or-conservative-mobilising-what-are-cpacs-aims-in-australia-121495">'Alt-right white extremism' or conservative mobilising: what are CPAC's aims in Australia?</a>
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<h2>Why the Voice could insulate Australia from Trumpism</h2>
<p>These messages are designed to kill the hope and buttress the fear <a href="https://twitter.com/SatPaper/status/1700600811439431787">expressed</a> by Professor Marcia Langton, co-chair of the senior design group on the Voice: </p>
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<p>A ‘yes’ vote delivers recognition through a voice and all the hope and healing it represents […] or a ‘no’ vote which binds us all closely – all of us – to a broken status quo.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>If the Voice is approved, it will be able to call out policies that are not truly responsive to the needs of Indigenous Australians, including programs that do not get to the heart of, or try to resolve, the disparity between First Nations people and their fellow Australians. This can help shape more effective responses to issues where no progress has been made for decades. </p>
<p>The existence of the Voice will mean that Trumpism is unlikely to derail what the body is intended to achieve. If the Voice is defeated, however, change for the better is severely compromised.</p>
<p>If most Australians vote “no” the country will be reeling. The victorious opponents of the Voice, with their echoes of Trumpism, will be poised to keep advancing their agenda. The default position of the political culture on race, reconciliation and equity will have gone backwards, making it harder to redress historical issues of racial disparities.</p>
<p>The world is watching. As George Megalogenis recently <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-peter-dutton-might-have-wrecker-s-remorse-20230906-p5e2ij.html">concluded</a>, “A ‘no’ vote would revive both the colonial ghost of dispossession and the federation ghost of the White Australia policy.” </p>
<p>That would be a victory for Trumpism in Australia, even before Trump’s fate is decided next year by voters in America.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213856/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Wolpe is a non resident Senior Fellow at the United States Studes Centre at the University of Sydney. He has worked with the Democrats in the US Congress and served on the staff of former Prime Minister Julia Gillard. He is not a member of any political party.</span></em></p>What we are already hearing today from those leading the “no” campaign is an echo chamber of Trumpist sentiments for his supporters and acolytes in Australia.Bruce Wolpe, Non-resident Senior Fellow, United States Study Centre, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2089372023-09-01T06:32:55Z2023-09-01T06:32:55ZAustralia tops the world for podcast listening. Why do we love them so much?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545468/original/file-20230830-28-vpdtsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7360%2C4912&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>“We’re here because this moment demands an explanation.”</p>
<p>So begins the first ever episode of New York Times’ The Daily podcast, delivered by host Michael Barbaro in his now famous style. It arrived on Wednesday February 1, 2017 – less than a fortnight after Donald Trump’s inauguration as President of the United States.</p>
<p>By the end of Trump’s term, it was wildly popular, reportedly attracting some <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/04/media/the-daily-podcast/index.html">four million daily downloads</a> and referred to as the newspaper’s “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2018/mar/30/hear-all-about-it-how-daily-news-podcasts-became-publishings-new-hope">new front page</a>”.</p>
<p>The Daily’s success inspired many other news outlets to develop podcasts, including in Australia, with the likes of ABC’s The Signal (since replaced by ABC News Daily), Schwartz Media’s 7am, and Guardian Australia’s Full Story launching from 2018.</p>
<p>According to 2023 data from The Infinite Dial – which tracks digital media use internationally – Australia has now surpassed the US <a href="https://www.commercialradio.com.au/Research/Infinite-Dial-Australia/2023">to be a world leader in podcast listening</a>, with 43% of the population aged 12 and over having listened to a podcast in the past month.</p>
<p>Australia also has the <a href="https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2023-06/Digital_News_Report_2023.pdf">third highest rate of news podcast listening</a>, behind the US and Sweden, with 14% of news consumers listening to news podcasts in the past month.</p>
<p>Despite these trends, there’s been limited research on news podcast listening in Australia. My <a href="https://intellectdiscover.com/content/journals/10.1386/ajr_00120_7">recent research</a>, published in June, found news podcast listeners in Australia tend to be politically left-leaning, wealthier, and more highly educated than average.</p>
<p>I also found they tend to be politically active, and value news podcasts for enabling them to better participate in democratic life.</p>
<p>Interestingly, listeners didn’t appear to trust podcasts more than other forms of news in general, with 61.1% reporting “the same” level of trust. However, they reported a high level of trust in news they choose to consume.</p>
<p>The rise of news podcasts happened amid a volatile political climate. In 2023, as Trump prepares for another run for president, and with a political storm brewing in Australia as we approach a referendum on an Indigenous Voice to parliament, there are good reasons to consider the role this podcast genre plays in democracy.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/michelle-obama-podcast-host-how-podcasting-became-a-multi-billion-dollar-industry-142920">Michelle Obama, podcast host: how podcasting became a multi-billion dollar industry</a>
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<h2>From radio to podcast news</h2>
<p>Radio news developed slowly following the invention of mass broadcasting in the early 1920s. It began with announcers reading press agency reports on air, giving rise to an authoritative and detached presenting style, reflecting the journalistic value of objectivity. While formats have differed, this has characterised radio news for much of its history.</p>
<p>Podcasting emerged in the early 2000s out of the disruption caused by the internet, and particularly the ability of users to generate and share content.</p>
<p>The lack of time constraints compared to radio meant podcast episodes could go for any length. And because they could be downloaded, listeners could engage with content in their own time, on their own terms.</p>
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<p>Slate’s Political Gabfest (2005-) was one of the first “native” podcasts – that is, produced specially for digital consumption – exploring news and politics. But it wasn’t until 2014, with podcasting’s breakout moment in true-crime sensation Serial, that news podcasts began to take off.</p>
<p>The Daily grew out of the New York Times’ election podcast The Run-Up. It pioneered the format known as the “daily deep dive” – defined by the Reuters Institute <a href="https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2020-11/Newman%20and%20Gallo%20-%20Podcasts%20and%20the%20Impact%20of%20Coronavirus%20FINAL%20%282%29.pdf">as</a> “heavily produced using sound design and narrative storytelling techniques”.</p>
<p>Many news podcasts since have similarly deployed narrative storytelling and immersive sound design to explore issues in the news. This has been championed as offering a more “human” <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17512786.2021.1882874">approach</a> to the news, featuring personal presenting styles and the harnessing of emotion.</p>
<h2>Media fragmentation and politics</h2>
<p>Reuters’ 2023 Digital News Report <a href="https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2023-06/Digital_News_Report_2023.pdf">notes</a> how in the podcasting sphere “news jostles for attention with lifestyle and specialist shows”. This may explain the degree of ambivalence around trust in news podcasts, with a wide variety of offerings categorised as “news” in podcast players such as Apple Podcasts.</p>
<p>Podcasting is difficult to regulate, and there’s a risk of the medium being used to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/oct/28/joe-rogan-hosts-alex-jones-on-spotify-podcast-despite-ban">spread dangerous messages</a>, as has happened across social media generally.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/misinformation-is-rife-and-causing-deeper-polarisation-heres-how-social-media-users-can-help-curb-it-210189">Misinformation is rife and causing deeper polarisation – here's how social media users can help curb it</a>
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<p>In his <a href="https://www.allenandunwin.com/browse/book/Bruce-Wolpe-Trump's-Australia-9781761068096">new book</a>, Bruce Wolpe, Senior Fellow at the United States Studies Centre, considers what a second Trump presidency would mean for Australia. He notes the corrosive influence of Trump and his Fox News acolytes on public trust, and warns that Australia should prepare for an emboldening of the populist right-wing sentiment that accompanied his rise on the political scene.</p>
<p>In the face of this, independent and rigorous journalism, supported by a well-funded ABC, has an important role to play.</p>
<p>As my study highlights, it’s important to acknowledge news podcast listeners tend to be from the higher social classes. There’s an impetus, then, to ensure coverage includes the perspectives of those who might not otherwise be well represented across the media sphere.</p>
<p>This has particular importance in relation to issues like the upcoming referendum, with a risk of it being used to fan the flames of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jun/21/linda-burney-says-indigenous-voice-not-about-culture-wars-such-as-abolishing-australia-day">culture wars</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/who-is-joe-rogan-and-why-does-spotify-love-him-so-much-176014">Who is Joe Rogan, and why does Spotify love him so much?</a>
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<p>At their best, news podcasts can engage us meaningfully in important issues, transporting us to unexpected places and highlighting the human impact at the heart of news stories, supported by facts and informed analysis.</p>
<p>With Australians among the most active news podcast listeners globally, there’s reason to have hope they can play a productive role in helping us navigate politically uncertain times.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208937/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dylan Bird receives funding through an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship.</span></em></p>New research finds Australian listeners value news podcasts for enabling them to better participate in democratic life.Dylan Bird, PhD candidate, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2091382023-07-06T03:50:33Z2023-07-06T03:50:33ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Author Bruce Wolpe on the “shocking” consequences for Australia of a Trump 24 win<p>Next year’s American presidential election is shaping up to be extraordinary. Donald Trump is favoured to be the Republican candidate, despite facing multiple charges over removing classified documents. President Joe Biden has indicated he intends to run again, despite the fact he’ll be 82 at the time of the poll and 86 if he completed another four-year term.</p>
<p>In this podcast, author Bruce Wolpe - a senior fellow at the United States Centre at the University of Sydney, who previously worked with the Democratic Party in Congress, discusses his new book “Trump’s Australia”. Wolpe argues a second Trump term would have shocking consequences for Australia.</p>
<p>Wolpe says “as of now”, Biden is certain to run again. “The only thing that would upset that would be if there was a severe health issue that would prevent him from acting as president […] As far as Donald Trump is concerned, I see his chances of being the [Republican] nominee as over 50%. His chances of prevailing in the election is slightly under 50%.”</p>
<p>Wolpe paints a bleak outlook if Trump were to win a second term: “It would look like the first term, but only worse.”</p>
<p>“I talked to senior foreign policy officials, Americans and Australians, Liberal and Labor, Democrat and Republican, serving Republican and Democratic presidents and prime ministers from both parties. I asked them, what do you expect of Trump in a second term? And they said, he will never change. </p>
<p>"He is erratic, unhinged. He governs in chaos and that will continue, he is arrogant […] He is completely transactional. In other words, he’s not motivated by any moral considerations or ideological considerations.”</p>
<p>Wolpe believes that Australia is a “big echo chamber of US news”: “You get up early in the morning, turn on the news, and given the news cycle, what you hear on most days is from the United States, and that became really apparent with Trump […] There are some elements of the Australian political culture that really absorb it and really like it, and they’re animated about it.</p>
<p>"We have Trump attacking the media and saying fake news. And just guess what? Australian politicians, when they don’t want to answer a question, they say, Oh, that’s fake news. So these things leach into Australian society, the Australian dialogue.</p>
<p>"But then the question is, does Australia adopt Trump policies? </p>
<p>"We did not have stuff against transgender people, those candidates failed. We don’t have controls on books in libraries or attempts to do it, or teaching Indigenous history. Those culture war buttons that Trump and other Republicans push, they don’t have much prominence here, and that’s a really good thing.</p>
<p>"I think Australian democracy is extremely strong. Australia will continue to be an echo chamber, but I’m hopeful about how Australia can manage the incoming from the United States.”</p>
<p>Wolpe says if Trump were to win a second term, Australian democracy would survive, but questions whether the alliance between the two countries would. “America and Australia aligned because of the values they share. That means fidelity to democracy, human rights, rule of law. And if those things don’t exist in the United States, what are we to be aligned with?”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209138/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In this podcast, Michelle chats with Bruce Wolpe about the prospect of second Trump term, and what implications that will have for AustraliaMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2049982023-05-14T11:19:04Z2023-05-14T11:19:04ZWill Europe’s right-wing populists rally behind Trump in the 2024 presidential election?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525540/original/file-20230511-23-7wt5zj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C38%2C3682%2C2423&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former U.S. president Donald Trump at a campaign event in Manchester, N.H on April 27, 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Charles Krupa)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a controversial town hall interview on <em>CNN</em>, former United States president Donald Trump said if re-elected he would consider <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-presidential-town-hall-1.6839425">pardoning “a large portion” of the rioters</a> who were convicted for their roles in the attack on the U.S. Congress on Jan. 6, 2021.</p>
<p>Trump announced last November that he would <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/politics/trump-2024-presidential-bid/index.html">run again for the presidency in 2024</a>. His campaign launch came just a few weeks before the Jan. 6 House Committee finalized an <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/22/trump-capitol-riot-jan-6-committee-issues-final-report.html">845-page report</a> which included a recommendation that the U.S. Department of Justice should investigate Trump. The former president’s role in <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/19/jan-6-committee-details-trump-criminal-referral-of-trump-over-capitol-riot.html">inciting or assisting an insurrection</a> figured prominently among the list of crimes committed. </p>
<p>The Capitol Hill insurrection prompted questions about the resilience of <a href="https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2021/06/us/capitol-riot-paths-to-insurrection/">American democratic institutions</a>. </p>
<p>Since 2016, <a href="https://time.com/time-person-of-the-year-populism/">right-wing populists in Europe</a> have revered Trump as an inspiring role model and leader. However, the insurrection may have tested the resolve of his European cheerleaders.</p>
<p>Will they support Trump again in the next election? </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525539/original/file-20230511-29-aszuk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People climb a wall. A Trump flag waves behind them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525539/original/file-20230511-29-aszuk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525539/original/file-20230511-29-aszuk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525539/original/file-20230511-29-aszuk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525539/original/file-20230511-29-aszuk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525539/original/file-20230511-29-aszuk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525539/original/file-20230511-29-aszuk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525539/original/file-20230511-29-aszuk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Donald Trump supporters scaling the west wall of the U.S. Capitol building in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Reactions to the Capitol Hill insurrection</h2>
<p>In order to answer this question, my colleagues and I studied European right-wing populists’ reactions to the Jan. 6 insurrection. <a href="https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003147565-15">Our analysis</a> focused on statements made by prominent right-wing populists shortly after the Capitol Hill riots. </p>
<p>We analyzed more than 400 statements from eight European countries, examining the rhetoric of politicians in Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Hungary and Poland. </p>
<p>Did these individuals denounce the violence? Did they see Trump as an inciter? Or did they exonerate him? </p>
<p>After the insurrection, <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/why-the-dutch-are-drawn-to-right-wing-populist-geert-wilders/">Geert Wilders</a>, leader of the right-wing Dutch Party for Freedom, could not hide his shock. In a <a href="https://twitter.com/geertwilderspvv/status/1346948138028978177?lang=ar-x-fm">tweet</a> he stated that “the outcome of democratic elections should always be respected, whether you win or lose.” </p>
<p>The U.K.’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50565543">Nigel Farage</a>, a key leader in the Brexit movement, was also critical but referred to the those who stormed the congress as <a href="https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1346918543401615365?lang=en">“protesters</a>.” </p>
<p>Santiago Abascal, leader of the right-wing Spanish political party Vox, blamed the political left, noting that it “<a href="https://twitter.com/Santi_ABASCAL/status/1346945426969260032?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">has spent years blowing up institutions, controlling the media and supporting violence throughout the West</a>.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525538/original/file-20230511-17-7w8lnm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="two men in suits shake hands on a stage. One invites the other to take the podium." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525538/original/file-20230511-17-7w8lnm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525538/original/file-20230511-17-7w8lnm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525538/original/file-20230511-17-7w8lnm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525538/original/file-20230511-17-7w8lnm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525538/original/file-20230511-17-7w8lnm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525538/original/file-20230511-17-7w8lnm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525538/original/file-20230511-17-7w8lnm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Donald Trump welcomes Nigel Farage to speak at a campaign rally during the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Farage has expressed his support for Trump in the upcoming 2024 election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In France, the leader of far-right National Rally, Marine Le Pen, also expressed her shock and said “<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/7/far-right-capitol-riots">violence that aims to undermine the democratic process is unacceptable</a>.” </p>
<p>In Italy, right-wing populist <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/09/matteo-salvini-italy-populist-playbook/597298/">Matteo Salvini</a> and current prime minister <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63029909">Giorgia Meloni</a> denounced and condemned the episodes of violence in Washington without openly criticising Trump. Nicola Procaccini, a member of the European Parliament from the populist Fratelli d’Italia party, compared the rioters to a “<a href="https://www.pressreader.com/uae/khaleej-times/20210113/281724092190820">series of fanatics who in some cases border on the ridiculous, starting with that one who seemed to have come out of the Village People</a>.” </p>
<p>In Germany, Jörg Meuthen, former co-chair of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37274201">Alternative for Germany party (AFD)</a> described the events as “<a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/europes-right-wing-populists-walk-a-tightrope-after-mob-storms-the-us-capitol/">frightening, disturbing and completely out of the question</a>,” reaffirming his party’s aversion to violence and anarchy. </p>
<p>Meuthen’s party colleague Gottfried Curio downplayed the insurrection as just a “<a href="http://85.217.170.64/en/bundestag-discusses-support-for-biden-after-capitol-riots/a-56229734">demonstration that escalated</a>.” He also expressed concern that the events in Washington could be “instrumentalized to draw egregiously false comparisons” that undermine the credibility of AFD itself. </p>
<p>Hungary’s Prime Minister <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/04/07/right-wing-populism-thriving-hungary-france-serbia-lepen-orban/">Victor Orbán</a> invited Hungarians to refrain from passing judgement and expressed confidence in the U.S. political system’s ability to settle disputes. </p>
<p>Poland’s right-wing populists did not blame Trump for the attack on congress. Similarly to Orbán, Polish President Andrzej Duda stated the events in Washington were an “internal affair,” adding that “<a href="https://www.pap.pl/en/news/news%2C788995%2Cpoland-believes-strength-us-democracy-says-president.html">Poland believes in the strength of the American democracy</a>.” </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525537/original/file-20230511-17-3vncam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men in suits shake hands." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525537/original/file-20230511-17-3vncam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525537/original/file-20230511-17-3vncam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525537/original/file-20230511-17-3vncam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525537/original/file-20230511-17-3vncam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525537/original/file-20230511-17-3vncam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525537/original/file-20230511-17-3vncam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525537/original/file-20230511-17-3vncam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Right-wing European leaders like Victor Orbán have tried to maintain a balancing act when it comes to condemning Trump and the insurrection.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Uneasy choice</h2>
<p>Our findings revealed that European right-wing populists found themselves facing the uneasy choice of either condoning an ideological ally or condemning the subversive acts at the Capitol. Some got themselves out of this quandary by denouncing the violence against the institution but leaving Trump out of it.</p>
<p>Right-wing populists across Europe faced a difficult balancing act trying to maintain a correct position on the insurrection without fully rejecting Trumpism. The varying responses revealed a cost-benefit analysis on the part of each populist leader. </p>
<p>For power-holders such as Poland’s Duda and Hungary’s Orbán, rejecting Trump was unnecessary. For power-seekers such as Meuthen or Le Pen, the political cost of remaining silent and losing votes would have been too much to bear. </p>
<p>Keeping Trump at an arm’s length is more of a pragmatic, rather than ideological, deliberation. The European populists who want to be in government can’t outright condone the insurrection. That would portray them as obstructers of the democratic process. This predicament is particularly constraining for parties like France’s <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/marine-le-pen-for-frances-national-rally-the-past-still-looms/">National Rally</a> which is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/10/how-le-pen-tried-to-soften-image-to-reach-french-election-runoff">trying to soften its image</a> after decades of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/01/marine-le-pen-rebrands-front-national-in-push-for-support">racism</a>.</p>
<p>Currently, European right-wing populists who are in power and zealously endorsed Trump’s reelection efforts are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/12/viktor-orban-ron-desantis-trump-hungary">hedging their bets</a> and cozying up to Ron DeSantis. Thus far, only Nigel Farage has showcased unwavering support for Trump and given him “<a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/04/farage-trump-will-win-president/">more than a 50 per cent chance of winning</a>.” </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/05/09/nyregion/trump-carroll-rape-trial-verdict">A New York court</a> recently found Trump liable for sexual abuse and defamation. That could constitute the final nail in the coffin, resulting in populists abandoning or at least distancing themselves from Trump’s 2024 campaign.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204998/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrea Wagner received funding from Erasmus+, a European Union program for education, training, youth and sport in her role as a Jean Monnet Chair.
</span></em></p>The Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Congress means Trump’s European allies need to carefully gauge their support for him.Andrea Wagner, Assistant Professor, Political Science, MacEwan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2014422023-03-13T12:27:51Z2023-03-13T12:27:51ZI went to CPAC to take MAGA supporters’ pulse – China and transgender people are among the top ‘demons’ they say are ruining the country<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514548/original/file-20230309-24-o5p4kc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Supporters listen to former President Donald Trump at the CPAC meeting in Maryland in March 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1471785336/photo/conservatives-attend-the-annual-cpac-event.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=1CcS6iWonBndweUgASis85ByHA9zDABHpwwizHwuFkY=">Alex Wong/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In early March 2023, I mixed with the <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2022/sep/21/what-maga-republican/">Make America Great Again faithful</a> at the annual <a href="https://www.conservative.org/">Conservative Political Action Conference</a> – a popular meeting, often known as CPAC, for conservative activists and political figures. </p>
<p>I walked, ate and sat with the attendees at the National Harbor in Maryland over the course of four days. Many of them <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/05/cpac-photos-2023-maga-00085521">were dressed in MAGA</a> and pro-Trump gear such as sequined hats and shirts that said things like “Trump won” the 2020 election. A few had tattoos of Trump’s face.</p>
<p>Media reports show that CPAC, which did not publicize the number of attendees, had <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/cpac-2023-conservative-conference-suffers-from-low-attendance-and-lack-of-sponsors">lower-than-normal attendance</a> and <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/03/cpac-was-a-janky-half-empty-trump-convention.html">fewer high-profile sponsors</a>. </p>
<p>Approximately 62% of CPAC attendees participating in a straw poll said they <a href="https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2023/03/06/trump-cpac-straw-poll-desantis-2024-republican-nomination">support Donald Trump for president</a> in 2024. </p>
<h2>Understanding CPAC</h2>
<p>Many commentators and others <a href="https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/cpac-starts-today-trump-kari-lake-desantis-missing-rcna72895">have labeled CPAC extremist</a>. The program was loaded with sometimes incendiary figures reviled by the left, including Republican Reps. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jan/28/marjorie-taylor-greene-kevin-mccarthy-republicans-house-committee">Marjorie Taylor Greene</a> and Matt Gaetz, as well as former Trump political advisers Steve Bannon and Stephen Miller.</p>
<p><a href="https://sasn.rutgers.edu/about-us/faculty-staff/alex-hinton">I am a scholar of extremism</a> in the United States and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/right-wing-cpac-forum-trump-shows-why-hell-be-tough-topple-2023-03-05/">went to CPAC</a> for two reasons. First, I wanted to hear firsthand what conservatives, and especially Trump followers, said. At a time of high political polarization, it is important to understand different positions. </p>
<p>Second, almost half of people in the U.S. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/aug/29/us-civil-war-fears-poll">fear political violence</a> and civil war. I wanted to take the pulse of the conservative right and assess points of division ahead of the 2024 presidential election. </p>
<p>The conference’s theme was “Protecting America Now.” Who and what were the perceived threats? And, amid the polarization, was there any common ground shared by conservatives and liberals?</p>
<p>I discovered five frequent demons at the conference: there were China’s Communist Party and border criminals – including Mexican drug cartels and undocumented immigrants. “Radical left Marxists” and the ideologies of “wokism” and “transgenderism” were also frequent targets. </p>
<p>While I also found a few glimmers of hope for political common ground between the left and right, it was apparent that Trumpism – and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/02/trump-playbook-us-midterms-republicans-election-denial">election denial</a>, misinformation and <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/current/trumps-dangerous-scapegoating-of-immigrants-at-the-state-of-the-union">scapegoating that come</a> with it – is stronger than some think and, I believe, remains a <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/02/trumps-loosening-grip-gop-early-2024-campaign-00085092">threat to U.S. democracy.</a> </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514553/original/file-20230309-24-wp96ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a wheelchair goes past a booth in a convention room that says 'Believe in America, not the media.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514553/original/file-20230309-24-wp96ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514553/original/file-20230309-24-wp96ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514553/original/file-20230309-24-wp96ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514553/original/file-20230309-24-wp96ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514553/original/file-20230309-24-wp96ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514553/original/file-20230309-24-wp96ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514553/original/file-20230309-24-wp96ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">CPAC attendees visit booths promoting political groups and products for sale.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1470814843/photo/conservatives-attend-the-annual-cpac-event.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=ouPMEVq4i00TxkUlufKELh78GpYLg9noO6KbWaAfV8I=">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>China</h2>
<p>China was one of the biggest common enemies identified at the conference. Just days after senior U.S. intelligence officials said that China is the <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-worldwide-threats-hearing">United States’ biggest national security threat</a>, speaker after speaker at CPAC harped on this theme. </p>
<p>The first day included panels titled “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVF__aUNlr8">Caging the Red Dragon</a>” and “No Chinese Balloons Above Tennessee.” </p>
<p>Such language plays to the growing number of Americans who view China as <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/471494/americans-continue-view-china-greatest-enemy.aspx%20/">the country’s biggest enemy</a>. </p>
<h2>Border criminals</h2>
<p>The focus on China connected to another target at the conference – Mexican cartels that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/25/us/migrant-smuggling-evolution.html">engage in human and drug trafficking</a>. This includes groups that bring <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/china-and-synthetic-drugs-control-fentanyl-methamphetamines-and-precursors/">fentanyl – a drug</a> that is Chinese-manufactured or made from Chinese-produced chemicals – into the U.S.</p>
<p>Many speakers accurately noted the staggering number of <a href="https://nida.nih.gov/research-topics/trends-statistics/overdose-death-rates">fentanyl deaths</a> in the U.S., including over <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2022/202205.htm">100,000 overdose deaths</a> in 2021. But they did so in often apocalyptic terms. </p>
<p>They were <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/fentanyl-and-geopolitics-controlling-opioid-supply-from-china/">quick to blame the Biden administration</a>, ignoring that these issues have a long history and also existed under former President Donald Trump. </p>
<p>The crisis, CPAC speakers said, includes large numbers of undocumented migrants crossing the border – who they sometimes derogatorily referred to as “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2018/11/02/an-invasion-illegal-aliens-oldest-immigration-fear-mongering-metaphor-america/">illegal aliens</a>.” Oddly, those crossing the border were depicted both as victims of the violent cartels and as criminal and economic threats to Americans. </p>
<h2>American Marxism</h2>
<p>CPAC speakers and attendees spotlighted what they saw as equally dire demons lurking within the country. </p>
<p>“Radical leftist Marxists” – a stand-in for all Democrats – stood at the top of the list. These leftist radicals, CPAC speakers suggested, were intent on turning the U.S. into a socialist country like China in which the state controlled bodies and minds and quashed individual rights and freedoms.</p>
<p>The Democratic Party “<a href="https://rumble.com/v2bue8k-mark-and-julie-levins-full-appearance-at-cpac.html?mref=9yob">hates this country</a>,” Fox TV personality Mark Levin claimed on the CPAC stage. </p>
<p>“This American Marxist movement,” he continued, his voice raising, “took off big time during COVID” and then “rode the wave of Black Lives Matter, Antifa and the cop-hating, to advance this racist, Marxist, bigoted, socialist, anti-American agenda – which is everything today the Democrat Party today stands for!” </p>
<p>The crowd responded with loud applause and cheers – ignoring that these often repeated claims have <a href="https://washingtonmonthly.com/2018/07/15/how-the-right-wing-convinces-itself-that-liberals-are-evil/">little basis in reality</a>. </p>
<h2>Wokism</h2>
<p>This anti-American agenda, Levin and other CPAC speakers argued, was <a href="https://www.nationalworld.com/whats-on/arts-and-entertainment/what-does-woke-mean-definition-woke-culture-2023-3215758">illustrated by “wokism</a>.”</p>
<p>Being woke generally means <a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/woke">understanding societal issues like racial</a> and social justice. But CPAC speakers, who didn’t define the term, suggested that these efforts were really part of a “radical leftist” plot to control what people think and say – an idea that the right has derided as “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/18/woke-cancel-desantis-academics/">political correctness</a>” in the past.</p>
<h2>‘Transgenderism’</h2>
<p>There was also an emphasis on gender and the perceived threat of transgender people. Some of the anti-transgender sentiment was casual, <a href="https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1631769245498441729">such as when Rep. Gaetz quipped</a>, “We had to spend four, five days asking the Chinese spy balloon what its pronouns were before we were willing to shoot it down.” </p>
<p>Perhaps the most strident remarks were made by conservative political commentator Michael Knowles, who stated, “for the good of society … <a href="https://twitter.com/Esqueer_/status/1632088542837981185">transgenderism must be eradicated</a> from public life entirely.” </p>
<p>Despite his inflammatory language and use of “transgenderism,” a <a href="https://www.glaad.org/reference/trans-terms">derogatory term</a> suggesting that transgender people have “a condition,” Knowles received loud applause.</p>
<p>So, too, did other speakers who disparaged transgender identity – an issue that has become a culture wars flashpoint. </p>
<p>The Anti-Defamation League, among other human rights groups, has shown that the <a href="https://www.adl.org/resources/blog/what-grooming-truth-behind-dangerous-bigoted-lie-targeting-lgbtq-community">idea transgender people</a> are <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/05/11/1096623939/accusations-grooming-political-attack-homophobic-origins">predatory “groomers</a>” or pedophiles is false and is being circulated by some Republicans only for political gain. </p>
<p>In March 2023, Tennessee became the first state to pass a law that restricts drag performances in the presence of children – a move that likely violates the First Amendment’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-tennessees-law-limiting-drag-performances-likely-violates-the-first-amendment-201126">free speech protection</a> and, in my view, is based on <a href="https://apnews.com/article/government-and-politics-a26e7eee15df0bbc2bb98071b683b1f4">fear, not facts</a>. Other Republican-led states are considering anti-drag legislation. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514552/original/file-20230309-18-zhkvr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large crowd of people look toward a screen that shows a white man in a dark suit. Next to the screen is a large American flag" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514552/original/file-20230309-18-zhkvr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514552/original/file-20230309-18-zhkvr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514552/original/file-20230309-18-zhkvr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514552/original/file-20230309-18-zhkvr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514552/original/file-20230309-18-zhkvr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514552/original/file-20230309-18-zhkvr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514552/original/file-20230309-18-zhkvr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Guests listen to former President Donald Trump address the Conservative Political Action Conference as the headline speaker.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1471305270/photo/conservatives-attend-the-annual-cpac-event.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=zWagq1ThWllJ7ms-NvFBPVyIE6AzjqBrGbbX1osO7b4=">Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>The warrior</h2>
<p>By the time Trump took the stage, the CPAC crowd was primed. People danced and waved “TRUMP WAS RIGHT!” placards.</p>
<p>Trump offered an apocalyptic vision of the country’s future. </p>
<p>“Sinister forces” are seeking to turn the U.S. into a “lawless open-borders, <a href="https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/trump-speaks-at-cpac-2023-transcript">crime-ridden, filthy, communist nightmare</a>,” Trump said.</p>
<p>Trump promised to fight back against these forces. “I am your warrior,” he told the adoring crowd. “I am your justice.” </p>
<h2>The rocky ride ahead</h2>
<p>I went to CPAC to find areas where the left and right might find common ground. Both sides worry about issues like inflation, fentanyl and crime. And, even as they may disagree on the path to get there, both want a better future for the country.</p>
<p>But politics is another demon lurking in the room. Most of the speakers at CPAC seemed to be there to rile up the crowd, which included many activists. </p>
<p>This was especially true of Trump, whose divisiveness was on clear display at CPAC. </p>
<p>All of this suggests the U.S. faces a rocky ride to the upcoming 2024 election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201442/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Hinton receives funding from The Center for Politics and Race in America at Rutgers University-Newark.</span></em></p>A scholar of extremism attended the CPAC meeting in March, in part to try to understand political polarization, and only saw signs of a worsening divide.Alexander Hinton, Distinguished Professor of Anthropology; Director, Center for the Study of Genocide and Human Rights, Rutgers University - NewarkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1954072022-12-22T06:56:04Z2022-12-22T06:56:04Z‘America is back’: how Joe Biden repaired US relationships with the rest of the world in 2022<p>The US reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine has marked a significant transformation in US foreign policy during 2022. President Joe Biden’s wide-ranging backing for Ukraine has met with support from both Democrats and Republicans. In doing so, it has ended any question of a return to his predecessor Donald Trump’s isolationism.</p>
<p>In his inaugural address in January 2021, Biden <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/01/20/inaugural-address-by-president-joseph-r-biden-jr/">announced</a> that the US would “repair our alliances and engage with the world once again”.</p>
<p>US leadership on environmental issues started on the <a href="https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-officially-rejoins-the-paris-agreement/">first day</a> of his presidency when the US rejoined the Paris climate agreement. Biden’s continued determination to lead on international issues could also be seen through the US’s agreement to the creation of a “loss and damage” fund at Egypt’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/22/cop27-us-stinging-criticism-china-emissions">COP27</a>, after a 30-year long <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/cop27-ends-announcement-historic-loss-and-damage-fund">objection</a>. The fund is designed to compensate poorer countries for climate damages.</p>
<h2>Swivel from Trump’s policy</h2>
<p>During the Trump presidency, the US withdrew from international treaties and adopted an “America first” attitude towards international affairs. Trump pulled the US out of the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html">Iran nuclear deal</a> which had removed sanctions on Iran in return for a restricted nuclear programme.</p>
<p>In addition, he withdrew the US from the <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/u-s-exits-paris-climate-accord-after-trump-stalls-global-warming-action-for-four-years/">Paris climate agreement</a>, and coerced Canada and Mexico to <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/01/politics/usmca-nafta-replacement-trump/index.html">renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement</a> (Nafta) in a way that disproportionately benefited the US.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/naftas-economic-impact">Nafta</a>, which established a free trade zone between the US, Canada and Mexico, had been in place since 1994. Trump was a long-term critic, <a href="https://money.cnn.com/2016/09/27/news/economy/donald-trump-nafta-hillary-clinton-debate/">calling it</a> “the worst trade deal signed anywhere”.</p>
<p>Trump’s determination to put America first led to a decline in the US’s global leadership. Some commentators have gone further and <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/596662-no-trump-would-not-have-stopped-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/">suggested</a> that this decline undermined Ukraine’s sovereignty.</p>
<p>It is no surprise that the US has taken a more central role in international affairs under Biden’s leadership. In his <a href="https://joebiden.com/americanleadership/#">presidential campaign</a>, he promised to restore America’s “respected leadership on the world stage”. <a href="https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/biden-us-foreign-policy/">Experts have identified</a> Biden’s foreign policy as an explicit repudiation of Trump’s “America First” legacy in favour of “the restoration of the multilateral order”.</p>
<p>But it was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that meant the US had to take the lead in international diplomacy again. Throughout the conflict, it has been resolute in its support of Ukraine – supplying more than <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/aid-ukraine-explained-six-charts">US$68 billion</a> (£56 billion) in military and humanitarian aid while encouraging its global partners to add their support.</p>
<p>Internally, there has been considerable <a href="https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/americans-support-ukraine-long-it-takes">bipartisan support</a> for Biden’s policy towards Ukraine. The only sustained <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/republicans-try-allay-concerns-us-aid-ukraine-ahead-election-day-rcna56016">Republican opposition</a> has come from the extreme right of the party, mostly consisting of Trump loyalists.</p>
<p>These opponents, such as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene">Marjorie Taylor Greene</a>, have vowed that “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/04/election-2022-live-updates-biden-harris/#link-QN2JXGXWTVHXLKXJRP5FMPPSZU">not another penny</a>” would be sent to Ukraine. But this opposition is a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-29/gop-s-mccaul-vows-to-keep-funds-flowing-to-ukraine-as-foreign-relations-chairman?leadSource=uverify%20wall">small minority</a> and significantly outnumbered by those, on both sides of the political divide, who have <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/3718594-coons-portman-visit-ukraine-to-underscore-broad-support-in-congress/">pledged</a> to continue supporting Ukraine’s defence.</p>
<h2>Public opinion on Ukraine</h2>
<p><a href="https://egfound.org/2022/10/rethinking-american-strength/#Ukraine">Surveys</a> have shown that the American public generally supports Biden’s response to Ukraine. The most positive responses praised his avoidance of direct conflict with Russia, while the most negative suggested more technologically advanced weaponry should be supplied.</p>
<p>However, foreign policy decisions have not all gone well for Biden. In August 2021, US forces <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/b2ba76a1-694b-47f9-b077-d48ad88a8cb5">withdrew from Afghanistan</a> in a chaotic manner. This was quickly followed by the collapse of the US-supported Afghan government. The US withdrawal brought <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/13/us-withdrawal-afghanistan-mistake-uk-defence-secretary-ben-wallace">international</a> and <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/11/09/biden-was-wrong-on-afghanistan/">domestic</a> criticism and undermined Biden’s attempts to re-establish American global diplomatic leadership.</p>
<p>Although Biden was blamed for the manner of this withdrawal, Trump’s <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51689443">ceasefire agreement</a> with the Taliban in February 2020, and subsequent <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/intra-afghan-peace-talks-begin-qatar-says-taliban-n1239178">signposted withdrawal</a> of US forces from Afghanistan, has been identified <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/sep/29/frank-mckenzie-doha-agreement-trump-taliban">by experts</a> as the catalyst for the collapse of the western-backed Afghan government.</p>
<h2>After the midterms</h2>
<p>In the recent midterms, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/11/03/key-facts-about-u-s-voter-priorities-ahead-of-the-2022-midterm-elections/">surveys</a> indicated that Biden’s support of Ukraine – and his foreign policy in general – failed to register as a priority issue with voters. The US support is not some populist policy but a determination to fulfil Biden’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/01/20/inaugural-address-by-president-joseph-r-biden-jr/">promise</a> of “a strong and trusted partner for peace, progress, and security”.</p>
<p>Almost two years later, it’s clear that Biden has no intention of diminishing the US’s role in international affairs. In his latest National Security Strategy, he <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf">declared</a>: “Around the world, the need for American leadership is as great as it has ever been.” </p>
<p>The new Congress, with a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/republicans-one-seat-away-winning-house-us-midterm-vote-2022-11-16/">Republican majority</a> in the House, is unlikely to hinder America’s re-emergence into international affairs. Biden is very experienced in <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/04/30/biden-bipartisan-dealmaking-backfire-226758/">working with Republicans</a> in Congress, and that will likely continue in the immediate future.</p>
<p>And Biden has been active in deciding Nato’s position on Ukraine. When questioned at a Nato summit in June, he <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/30/nato-will-stick-with-ukraine-as-long-as-it-takes-says-joe-biden">said</a> on behalf of all the allies that they would “stick with Ukraine, as long as it takes, and in fact make sure they are not defeated”.</p>
<p>A move to become more active in international affairs is <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/12/american-foreign-policy-in-wartime/671899/">welcomed</a> by observers, with a degree of caution. US involvement needs to be enough to be effective, but not too much to be dominating. And this has been backed by recent opinion <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-08/ukraine-russia-war-has-americans-caring-about-us-foreign-policy?leadSource=uverify%20wall">polls</a> on US foreign policy.</p>
<p>Rather than attempting to build democratic nations overseas, the Biden administration is adopting what some are calling “<a href="https://www.vox.com/22639548/911-anniversary-war-on-terror-liberal-interventionism">fortress liberalism</a>” – the protection of democracy where it already exists, such as Ukraine.</p>
<p>Mindful of <a href="https://www.theamericanconservative.com/new-americans-opposed-to-boots-on-the-ground-in-ukraine-new-poll-finds/">public concerns</a> over the possibility of boots on the ground, Biden’s approach stops short of resuming the military operations of the Bush and Obama administrations.</p>
<p>Whether the level of support for Ukraine is enough remains to be seen. <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/united-states-aid-ukraine-investment-whose-benefits-greatly-exceed-its-cost">Experts warn</a> that a severe economic downturn for the US could reduce public support for the amount being authorised. What is clear, however, is that support for Ukraine will continue in one form or another, as Biden continues to repair America’s relationships with the rest of the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195407/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dafydd Townley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Joe Biden’s move away from Trump’s isolationist policy has won some support from the public, and Congress.Dafydd Townley, Teaching Fellow in International Security, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1930502022-10-25T16:13:00Z2022-10-25T16:13:00ZIs democracy really ‘on the ballot’ in the US midterm elections?<p>Ahead of the midterm elections in November, US president Joe Biden gave a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/09/02/1120690193/bidens-speech-walks-a-fine-line-in-its-attack-on-maga-republicans">controversial</a> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wygovCnX8Uw">speech</a> that accused MAGA Republicans (an acronym for “Make America Great Again”) of “destroying American democracy” and posing “a threat to this country” and to the “very foundations of our republic.” Days earlier, he described the philosophy of these pro-Trump Republicans as <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/biden-blasts-maga-philosophy-semi-fascism-rcna44953">“almost semi-fascism”</a>.</p>
<p>Such strong words represent a real break from a president who had placed national reconciliation at the core of his campaign, tirelessly repeating his desire to unify and not divide the people since his <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/live-updates-2020-election-results/2020/11/07/932104693/biden-to-make-victory-speech-as-president-elect-at-8-p-m-et">victory speech</a> and <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2021/01/20/bidens-inaugural-address-unity-and-truth/">inaugural address</a>. However, he is hardly the first president to denounce other Americans as an existential threat to the nation. His predecessor, Donald Trump, referred to the press that criticized him as the <a href="https://www.hks.harvard.edu/publications/enemy-people-trumps-war-press-new-mccarthyism-and-threat-american-democracy">“enemy of the people”</a>.</p>
<p>Trump was quick to respond to Biden’s attacks by calling him an <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2022/09/04/trump-brands-biden-enemy-of-the-state-at-pennsylvania-rally_5995747_4.html">“enemy of the state”</a>. House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy agreed with Biden that <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinomccarthy/status/1565507390061035521?refsrc=twsrc%5Etfw">“democracy is on the ballot in November”</a>, but said it was “Joe Biden and the radical left in Washington [who] are dismantling it.”</p>
<p>Is this talk a mere electoral strategy to motivate voters to turn out or could both parties have a point?</p>
<h2>Public opinion is concerned but divided on the issue of democracy</h2>
<p>A majority of Americans (69%), Republicans and Democrats alike, do consider that democracy is “in danger of collapse,” according to a recent <a href="https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3831">Quinnipiac University poll</a>. For the first time in U.S. history, an incumbent president has still not conceded defeat, instead claiming a <a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/jan/07/donald-trump/trump-clings-fantasy-landslide-victory-egging-supp/">“landslide victory,”</a> and inciting his supporters to storm the Capitol to block the certification of the results of the Electoral College vote.</p>
<p>The nation’s unifying concern about democracy, however, does <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/18/us/politics/midterm-election-voters-democracy-poll.html">not necessarily translate into votes</a> as Americans tend to focus more on short-term, pressing issues. It also hides deep divisions: while a majority of respondents cite “people trying to overturn the election” as a major threat, among Republicans it is “people voting illegally” who are seen as a threat (<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-poll-americans-democracy-is-under-threat-opinion-poll-2022-09-01/">CBS poll</a>).</p>
<p>This belief continues even though <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/resources-voter-fraud-claims">all the studies</a> on this issue, including the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/north-america-donald-trump-us-news-ap-top-news-elections-f5f6a73b2af546ee97816bb35e82c18d">Commission on Election Integrity</a> established by Trump himself, have concluded again and again that there is no evidence of voter fraud that could have changed the outcome of the 2020 elections. Despite this, <a href="https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2022/70-percent-republicans-falsely-believe-stolen-election-trump/">poll after poll</a> shows that a large majority of Republicans (70%) continue to believe that Joe Biden is not the legitimate winner of the 2020 election.</p>
<p>Questioning a president’s legitimacy is not entirely new: in 2016, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-persistent-partisan-divide-over-birther-question-n627446">72% of Republican voters</a> still doubted President Obama’s citizenship (in 2000, Democrats were <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/05/17/voters-have-seen-past-presidents-illegitimate-this-time-is-different/">skeptical of George W. Bush’s election</a>, but the situation was quite different, and, Al Gore had admitted defeat).</p>
<p>Rather, what is unusual is the scale of the doubts. On the very day following the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, nearly <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/07/us/elections/electoral-college-biden-objectors.html">two-thirds of Republican representatives</a> and a few senators refused to validate the results of the presidential election. Some conservatives, including the most powerful <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/resources-voter-fraud-claims">American conservative think tank</a>, support minority rule by making the dangerous <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/yes-constitution-democracy/616949/">claim that the United States is a republic, and not a democracy</a>.</p>
<h2>Voting: a very local matter</h2>
<p>While midterm elections are traditionally about the record – especially on the economic front – of the administration in power, the 2022 campaign has taken a different turn.</p>
<p>First of all, never before has a former president dominated the primaries of a midterm election as Donald Trump has. He has endorsed more than <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/07/us/elections/electoral-college-biden-objectors.html">200 candidates</a>, not only at the federal level but also at the local level. On top of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives and one third of the 100 seats in the Senate on the ballot at the federal level, there are also hundreds of local elections from <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Gubernatorial_elections,_2022">governors</a> to state <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Secretary_of_State_elections,_2022">secretaries of state</a>, local <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Attorney_General_elections,_2022">attorneys general</a>, and <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_elections,_2022">state legislative chambers</a>. These elections are suddenly crucial because in the U.S. federal system the states are responsible for the elections and for establishing voting rights, not the federal government.</p>
<p>Depending on each state’s constitution, governors and secretaries of state may have varying degrees of control over elections, although they cannot, on their own, overturn the results of an election. This is why Donald Trump asked Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvwOEHMO23s">“find 11,780 votes”</a> in order to change the final outcome in his favor in 2020, thus instantly transforming a low-level, non-partisan, administrative position into a high-profile, partisan, political office.</p>
<p>During the midterm primaries, Trump made the denial of the 2020 presidential election results a key loyalty test within the Republican Party. The results of the primaries confirm its hold: <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/republicans-trump-election-fraud/">60 percent of elections will have election deniers on the ballot this fall</a>. For Trump, the point is not just about making November 8 a rematch of the 2020 presidential election but also to prepare for the 2024 presidential election. And in the event of defeat, he could potentially block the electoral machinery.</p>
<h2>Extremism is a risky strategy that doesn’t necessarily pay off</h2>
<p>Historically, the most extreme candidates who win primaries <a href="http://www.andrewbenjaminhall.com/Hall_APSR.pdf">diminish their party’s chances of winning the general election</a>. Some Democrats have relied on this idea to support a risky and somewhat cynical strategy: funding <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2022/democrat-ad-spending-republican-trump/?itid=lk_interstitial_manual_9">ad campaigns for the most extreme Republican candidates</a> in the primaries – tying them to Donald Trump, for example – in the hope of defeating them more easily in the general election.</p>
<p>While this strategy has <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/todd-akin-missouri-claire-mccaskill-2012-121262/">worked in the past</a>, it could backfire in a highly polarized environment where party affiliation gets increasingly mixed up with personal identity.</p>
<p>The other hope for Democrats is that the issue of abortion moves to front and centre. It is now up to the states to decide whether to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2022/jun/28/tracking-where-abortion-laws-stand-in-every-state">ban, limit or guarantee</a> abortion rights after <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/19-1392_6j37.pdf">the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade</a> in June. If the test <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/2022-live-primary-election-race-results/2022/08/02/1115317596/kansas-voters-abortion-legal-reject-constitutional-amendment">vote in Kansas</a> this summer is any indication, even voters in a very conservative state remain broadly supportive of maintaining a constitutional guarantee on abortion. An <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/09/07/1121427463/more-women-are-registering-to-vote-how-could-that-affect-midterms">increase in the number of women registered to vote</a> in this election may also indicate that this might be a mobilizing issue.</p>
<p>The irony, of course, is that now the Democrats are <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/09/democrats-culture-wars-abortion-00055818">waging the so-called “culture war”</a> on the Republicans by focusing on moral and societal issues first while the Republicans shift to <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-republicans-focus-closing-message-on-economic-frustrations/">economic issues</a>, such as inflation. That economic focus could help them secure a landslide victory, especially with <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khuwYOo2dDM">immigration and crime</a> still on their agenda.</p>
<p>Thus, the transformation of the midterm elections into a possible “rematch” of the 2020 presidential election (between a relatively unpopular president and a former president who is even more unpopular and radicalized), could make the prognosis uncertain. That being said, most models (<a href="https://www.politico.com/2022-election/race-forecasts-ratings-and-predictions/">here</a>, <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/">here</a> and <a href="https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/">here</a>) have the Republicans winning the House while the Senate has only <a href="https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-midterms-2022/forecast/senate">a slight chance</a> of remaining Democrat.</p>
<p>If the Republicans take control of one chamber of Congress – or both, it will close any chance for the Democrats to accomplish anything for the next two years. The new majority could also use its power to obstruct, open investigations into the Biden administration, and upset the current balance in international affairs, including by questioning <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/18/us/politics/mccarthy-ukraine-republicans.html">American support for Ukraine</a>. In the meantime, the results of local elections could well decide the future of democracy in the most powerful country in the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193050/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Republicans and democrats alike have accused each other of threatening the foundations of democracy. How legitimate are these fears?Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy, Assistant lecturer, CY Cergy Paris UniversitéLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1917182022-10-05T15:46:01Z2022-10-05T15:46:01ZBolsonaro’s first-round election bounce back reminds us why populist leaders are so popular<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488282/original/file-20221005-14-ylc9dl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Many populist politicians do better in elections than polling suggests they will.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Antonio Scorza/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The sitting Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro secured an <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-brazil-election/">unexpected 43% vote</a> in the recent first round of the presidential election, close behind his opponent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (48%). </p>
<p>Many polling companies had predicted Bolsonaro would not do that well <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazilian-election-jair-bolsonaro-set-to-lose-but-his-legacy-will-be-harder-to-remove-190862">in the first round</a>, and there had even been predictions that Lula could get a clear enough lead to gain an all-out victory. But Bolsonaro bounced back, pulling in enough votes to secure a second round on October 30. </p>
<p>Populist politicians such as Bolsonaro, the UK’s Boris Johnson, incoming Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni and India’s leader Nahindra Modi have often been seen by their opponents and professional commentators as unelectable and undesirable. And yet they continue to be electorally successful.</p>
<p>Populists manage this in several ways. They advance simple-to-understand messages and ideas that tap into strong emotional desires of a significant section of the population. </p>
<p>They seek to align their public persona with that of an outsider who is fighting against the system, even when this is not a natural fit. (This is how billionaire Trump and privately educated Johnson became seen as men of the people, despite having privileged lives.) And they make powerful use of modern communication methods, which today means the internet and social media. </p>
<p>The term populist suggests that these politicians are more effective at tapping into public desires than their opponents. There is some truth to this claim. In particular, today’s populist leaders often play on the fact that the post-cold war order had failed to make <a href="https://academic.oup.com/ia/article-pdf/78/1/49/13069325/1468-2346.00238.pdf?casa_token=EeJTuUgpFmkAAAAA:szMbAqvpLZwPcDqtS9KIEyxwPYUaFjcg51rPX9CXPaTOkC5fy_nfxiMU4v6eFajJqq9dElPja8M829w">globalisation work</a> for the majority of people. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in a red cap points to the crowd." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488283/original/file-20221005-17-3b9k07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488283/original/file-20221005-17-3b9k07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488283/original/file-20221005-17-3b9k07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488283/original/file-20221005-17-3b9k07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488283/original/file-20221005-17-3b9k07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488283/original/file-20221005-17-3b9k07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488283/original/file-20221005-17-3b9k07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Populists leaders such as Donald Trump often create a man-of-the-people image for themselves.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brad McPherson/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the UK’s referendum on European Union membership, Johnson and others advocating to leave the EU <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/01/31/many-working-class-people-believe-in-brexit-who-can-blame-them/">understood that a sizeable number</a> of the British public felt left behind by globalisation and were fed up with (as they saw it) being dictated to by the EU. Similarly, Trump tapped <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/donald-trump-allies-create-a-new-super-pac-called-maga-inc">into “traditional values”</a> and conservative desires within a section of the US public who recalled a world of greater prosperity and job security. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, in India, <a href="https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/will-modi-hindu-nationalism-damage-us-india-relations/">Modi taps into nationalist pride</a> and sectarian privilege. Bolsonaro seeks to reject progressive politics and return to “traditional family values”. </p>
<h2>The outsider myth</h2>
<p>In making use of this nostalgia, populists often define themselves and their supporters as <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/63246e18-72b4-11e7-aca6-c6bd07df1a3c">outsiders</a>, who have lost out as progressive values have taken over (even when these politicians come from established elites). So, if you are a Brazilian gun owner who opposes gay rights, the rights of Indigenous people and abortion, then Bolsonaro provides you with a ready-made political home. </p>
<p>Similarly, populists use narratives that existing institutions of government and “mainstream” politicians had failed the public. In the case of Bolsonaro, as with Trump, this has clearly resonated well with voters, some of whom have accepted the arguments that government officials and civil servants are lazy, “woke” and keen to meddle in their affairs. </p>
<p>In this way, populist politicians promise to act as “disruptors”, similar to how Amazon has disrupted the retail industry and Tesla is disrupting motor manufacturing. Indeed, subverting the structures of government is an essential part of the <a href="https://heinonline.org/hol-cgi-bin/get_pdf.cgi?handle=hein.journals/rcatorbg43&section=100&casa_token=Kk2iDpQ3e7YAAAAA:BqKTMUI0fF5-wqCtI2dSf8pFBpwDrQGqFQYcoUxKo9SuV_WsTD5Ac0XmIpb9CKuXtI1ETmfjzw">populist playbook</a>. </p>
<p>Political scientist Jonathan Hopkins describes this <a href="http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/105901/1/brexit_2020_07_13_the_rise_of_anti_system_politics_reflects_the.pdf">wave of politicians as “anti-system”</a>. Their central premise is to redraw the established political system, nationally and internationally. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-brazils-bolsonaro-is-following-trumps-pre-election-playbook-177863">Why Brazil's Bolsonaro is following Trump’s pre-election playbook</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Internet tricks</h2>
<p>Successful anti-system figures including Trump and Johnson (and importantly their campaign teams) have also harnessed the power of social media platforms such as Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, 8Chan and private messaging apps such as WhatsApp and Signal to nurture politically sympathetic communities. This makes their success, in part, a story about the rise of a new kind of political communications. </p>
<p>Recent political campaigns have been powerful because they use a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/21670811.2020.1762102">trick of the internet</a> to enhance their effectiveness. Social media algorithms work out what we are interested in, what we might be looking to buy, and what we are likely to believe, and then inundate us with those ideas. Politicians who have understood this best have a strong advantage. </p>
<p>Democratic systems seem peculiarly poorly suited to dealing with these challenges, For example, the widespread use of <a href="https://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/bitstream/handle/document/74603/ssoar-mediawatch-2018-1-farooq-Politics_of_Fake_News_How.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">WhatsApp in Indian politics</a>, or <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2022/09/27/brazil-election-a-disinformation-machine-in-full-swing_5998322_4.html">persuasive fake websites in the Brazilian election</a> has made it impossible for regulators to check or roll back disinformation in time to prevent harm.</p>
<p>For those seeking to defeat populist politicians, they are faced with a difficult choice of being labelled as candidates of the establishment, or joining anti-system politicians in guerrilla marketing campaigns and sloganeering aimed at radically mobilising the public. </p>
<p>Even if Bolsonaro doesn’t retain the presidency, his influence, like Trump’s, is not going away any time soon. Their supporters are now installed in high places, in official bodies, courts and state governments, ready to carry on.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191718/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert M. Dover has previously receives funding from the AHRC and ESRC. </span></em></p>Brazil’s Bolsonaro has done better than expected in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election. An expert discusses why populism gets votes.Robert M. Dover, Professor of Intelligence and National Security, University of HullLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1897372022-08-31T19:28:30Z2022-08-31T19:28:30ZTrump faces possible obstruction of justice charges for concealing classified government documents – 2 important things to know about what this means<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482102/original/file-20220831-20-rof5aj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Department of Justice photo shows of documents seized during its Mar-a-Lago search. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://mapi.associatedpress.com/v1/items/954a1ccd337c4f5a8c588260e2abfefc/preview/AP22243147136668.jpg?wm=api&tag=app_id=1,user_id=904438,org_id=101781">Department of Justice via Associated Press </a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><a href="https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/22272801/justice-dept-response-to-trump-motion-for-special-master.pdf">A court filing by the Justice Department</a> just minutes before midnight on Aug. 30, 2022, was a sharply worded attack on former President Donald Trump’s request for a so-called “special master” – a neutral arbiter – to review the documents <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/08/trump-mar-a-lago-search-fbi/">the FBI seized at his estate</a>, Mar-a-Lago, earlier in the month.</em></p>
<p><em>Bottom line: The Justice Department says the documents don’t belong to Trump and says someone has deliberately concealed documents marked classified from a federal grand jury investigation. The department has not yet publicly stated who they believe is guilty of this crime – whether Trump himself, members of his team, or both.</em></p>
<p><em>In the filing, the Justice Department wrote, “The government also developed evidence that government records were likely concealed and removed from the Storage Room and that efforts were likely taken to obstruct the government’s investigation.”</em></p>
<p><em>This latest revelation has prompted observers to say that <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/8/31/23330643/trump-doj-court-special-master-obstruction">obstruction of justice </a> charges are at stake. But that’s a broad term that covers many wrongful acts. The specific crime at issue here is obstructing a federal investigation.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation asked Georgia State University legal expert <a href="http://www.clarkcunningham.org/">Clark Cunningham</a>, an <a href="https://www.yalelawjournal.org/forum/apple-and-the-american-revolution-remembering-why-we-have-the-fourth-amendment-1">authority on search warrants</a>, to describe the meaning of obstruction, and why Trump may be charged with this crime.</em></p>
<h2>The crime of obstruction, and a particular version of it</h2>
<p>There are <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/part-I/chapter-73">21 different federal crimes</a> that involve obstruction of justice. One of the obstruction laws, called Section 1519, is violated if someone “<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/1519">knowingly conceals any document with the intent to obstruct</a>” – or block – a federal investigation. That’s obstruction of a federal investigation, and <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/1519">conviction for this crime</a> can result in up to 20 years of prison. </p>
<p>For example, Jesse Benton, who managed Ron Paul’s 2012 presidential campaign, was convicted of violating Section 1519 when <a href="https://case-law.vlex.com/vid/united-states-v-benton-894813523">he concealed improper campaign payments</a> from the Federal Election Commission. Trump later <a href="https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2021/09/20/jesse-benton-indicted-rand-paul-mitch-mcconnell-former-campaign-manager/5791086001/">pardoned Benton</a> <a href="https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2020/12/24/trump-pardons-jesse-benton-ex-campaign-manager-rand-paul-mitch-mcconnell/4042657001/">in December 2020.</a></p>
<p>The FBI cites Section 1519 in its <a href="https://theconversation.com/fbis-mar-a-lago-search-warrant-affidavit-reveals-how-trump-may-have-compromised-national-security-a-legal-expert-answers-5-key-questions-189500">Mar-a-Lago search warrant</a> and in the recently <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/08/26/doj-fbi-affidavit-trump-mar-a-lago">unsealed affidavit</a> submitted to a Florida court to obtain the warrant. But until the Department of Justice’s Aug. 30, 2022, midnight court filing, the public did not know what kind of concealment and what kind of obstruction the department was alleging Trump committed.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482100/original/file-20220831-4764-hl5j8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="White pages are shown with text, much of it blacked out." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482100/original/file-20220831-4764-hl5j8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482100/original/file-20220831-4764-hl5j8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482100/original/file-20220831-4764-hl5j8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482100/original/file-20220831-4764-hl5j8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482100/original/file-20220831-4764-hl5j8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482100/original/file-20220831-4764-hl5j8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482100/original/file-20220831-4764-hl5j8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pages from the FBI’s redacted search warrant affidavit for former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate are shown.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/in-this-photo-illustration-pages-are-viewed-from-the-governments-of-picture-id1418610718">Mario Tama/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why the government alleges this crime was committed at Mar-a-Lago</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://abc7chicago.com/donald-trump-maralago-fbi-search-classified-documents/12175658">federal grand jury subpoena</a> demanded on May 11, 2022, that Trump turn over all documents with classified markings to the government. </p>
<p>The FBI was <a href="https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/22272801/justice-dept-response-to-trump-motion-for-special-master.pdf">informed by Trump representatives in a sworn statement at Mar-a-Lago on June 3</a> that all documents marked classified were being turned over that day. This statement has now been proved to be false.</p>
<p>Trump was aware of the FBI’s June 3 visit to Mar-a-Lago. In his own court filings he has said that <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/22164310-trump-motion-for-judicial-oversight-and-additional-relief-8-22-22">he personally met the FBI agents</a> when they arrived.</p>
<p>Despite the sworn statement that no more documents marked as classified remained at Mar-a-Lago, the FBI found 76 documents marked classified in a storage room during its subsequent Aug. 8, 2022 search of Mar-a-Lago. They <a href="https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.618763/gov.uscourts.flsd.618763.48.0_1.pdf">also found documents</a> marked “Top Secret” in a container in Trump’s private office. The agents also seized a desk drawer in that office containing documents marked classified that were mixed in with other items, including Trump’s passports.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482108/original/file-20220831-18-otpq7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A group of people gather outside a government building and look at a blacked-out document. Some of them hold cameras." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482108/original/file-20220831-18-otpq7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482108/original/file-20220831-18-otpq7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482108/original/file-20220831-18-otpq7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482108/original/file-20220831-18-otpq7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482108/original/file-20220831-18-otpq7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482108/original/file-20220831-18-otpq7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482108/original/file-20220831-18-otpq7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Journalists in West Palm Beach look at the Justice Department’s heavily blacked-out document on Aug. 26, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://mapi.associatedpress.com/v1/items/bbdbb7ee85e44de993efca9c5f3b8703/preview/AP22238621819824.jpg?wm=api&tag=app_id=1,user_id=904438,org_id=101781">Jim Rassol/Associated Press</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The government believes that the false statement made to the agents on June 3, as well as other evidence they have not yet disclosed, shows <a href="https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/22272801/justice-dept-response-to-trump-motion-for-special-master.pdf">there was a deliberate plan to conceal</a> documents that should have been given to the grand jury.</p>
<p>Before the Aug. 30 filing, it appeared that Trump’s most serious risk of criminal liability involved <a href="https://theconversation.com/fbis-mar-a-lago-search-warrant-affidavit-reveals-how-trump-may-have-compromised-national-security-a-legal-expert-answers-5-key-questions-189500">violating the Espionage Act</a> by willfully retaining documents relating to national security after he left office. Revelation of these new details emphasize another offense to be added to the list of his possible crimes: obstruction of a federal investigation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189737/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clark D. Cunningham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A government filing on August 30, 2022, alleges that efforts were likely taken “to obstruct the government’s investigation” into classified documents held at Donald Trump’s Florida home.Clark D. Cunningham, W. Lee Burge Chair in Law & Ethics; Director, National Institute for Teaching Ethics & Professionalism, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1890932022-08-31T10:20:20Z2022-08-31T10:20:20ZThe world’s democratic recession is giving China more power to extend authoritarianism<p>Over the last decade, <a href="https://v-dem.net/media/publications/dr_2022.pdf">the number of countries</a> considered to be liberal democracies has contracted from 41 to 32, back to the same level as in 1989. In the same period, <a href="https://v-dem.net/media/publications/dr_2022.pdf">87 other countries</a> were labelled as closed autocracies or elected autocracies. </p>
<p>A 2021 survey by the Economist Intelligence Unit showed that only 8.4% of the world’s population lived in a fully functioning democracy, this shift is being referred to as a <a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/02/02/global-democracy-has-a-very-bad-year">“democratic recession”</a>.</p>
<p>To many, leaders such as Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orbán, Turkey’s president Recep Erdoğan and former Philippines’ president Rodrigo Duterte have typified this trend. They have <a href="https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/how-viktor-orban-wins/">weakened their domestic</a> political systems and undermined elections by closing down critical media. Such leaders are also reducing, or attempting to reduce, the independence of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/new-perspectives-on-turkey/article/abs/toward-a-new-political-regime-in-turkey-from-competitive-toward-full-authoritarianism/76DDFD46CFDD20B15E2908A9BECBEAEC">their judiciaries</a>.</p>
<p>The gradual erosion of democratic values and freedoms, such as recent restrictions on the <a href="https://www.libertyhumanrights.org.uk/advice_information/pcsc-policing-act-protest-rights/">right to protest</a> in the UK, and this slide towards authoritarianism, is opening up more space for China to dominate the global agenda with its values.</p>
<p>Crucially, such an authoritarian tilt is now starting to epitomise politics in democratic countries, such as the US, India and the UK. As these countries become less democratic, they are in effect giving more space for authoritarianism to flourish.</p>
<h2>Trump, Modi and Johnson</h2>
<p>Populist former US president Donald Trump openly questioned the foundations of US democracy. His attacks upon members of the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2056305118776010">“fake news” media</a> rejected the role of a free press, weakening the constitution and human rights. In turn, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/08/13/trump-confesses-voter-supression/">policies on voter suppression</a> that discourage specific groups of people from voting, <a href="https://www.politico.com/interactives/2022/congressional-redistricting-maps-by-state-and-district/">redistricting</a> (changing the boundaries of a constituency to favour the party in government) and the <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3706545">politicisation of the justice system</a> by openly attacking judges <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/article/trumps-ideological-judges-led-politicized-courts/">who ruled against his administration’s policies</a>, all undermined democracy.</p>
<p>Under Trump there was also a major upswing in reported <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3102652">hate crimes</a> against minority groups. After Trump, by mid-2021, the US had more than 400 bills pending on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/13/joe-biden-republicans-voting-rights-philadelphia">voter suppression</a> in mainly Republican-controlled state legislatures, and more than 230 bills pending on <a href="https://www.icnl.org/usprotestlawtracker/">criminalising protest</a>. </p>
<p>In turn, many members of the Republican Party have refused to accept the result of the <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/at-least-120-republicans-who-deny-the-2020-election-results-will-be-on-the-ballot-in-november/">2020 presidential election</a>. In doing this, the Republican Party goes some way to eroding public trust in the whole political system.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also shifted India in an authoritarian direction. He has <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/18/indias-democracy-is-under-threat/">used anti-terrorism laws</a> to silence political opponents, journalists and academics, and to limit public protests against his government’s policies.</p>
<p>Since 2014, violence and discrimination against India’s 200 million Muslims <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2020/04/09/shoot-traitors/discrimination-against-muslims-under-indias-new-citizenship-policy">has also increased</a>. One example of this, is the National Register of Citizens and the Citizenship Amendment Act of 2019, which excluded Muslims from the same rights enjoyed by the Hindu majority. </p>
<p>In the UK, the populist government of prime minister Boris Johnson <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/9/24/uk-supreme-court-rules-parliament-suspension-unlawful-void">unlawfully suspended parliament in 2019</a>. His government also introduced <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9187/">compulsory voter ID</a>, which has been criticised as a way of restricting voting. Other laws are limiting the ability of the media and judiciary to provide <a href="https://fpc.org.uk/the-thin-end-of-the-wedge-the-uk-and-escalating-global-authoritarianism/">independent oversight</a> and to hold the powerful to account.</p>
<p>Authoritarian leaders revelled in the chaos of the 2020 US presidential election. Colombia’s Publimetro <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/whos-the-banana-republic-now-world-reacts-to-us-election/GBUFN5HYBGMHDAHQGFG3ON3OAA/">newspaper</a> ran a piece headlined: “Who’s the banana republic now?” And <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/05/what-a-spectacle-the-uss-enemies-revel-in-the-post-election-chaos">Chinese state media noted</a> that the US looked a “bit like a developing country”.</p>
<h2>What does this mean for China?</h2>
<p>China’s economic, <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-modernizing-military">military</a> and diplomatic ascent is allowing Beijing to increasingly promote its style of politics on <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263300375_The_rise_of_the_'China_Model'_and_'Beijing_Consensus'_Evidence_of_authoritarian_diffusio">the global stage</a>. Its foreign policy provides <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41267-021-00435-0">up to US$8 trillion (£6.7 trillion) in investment</a> to developing countries, particularly in Africa and Latin America, through its <a href="https://www.ebrd.com/what-we-do/belt-and-road/overview.html">Belt and Road Initiative</a>.</p>
<p>The strategy’s name echoes the historic Silk Road from 2,000 years ago, a series of powerful trading routes connected to China. This series of investments in ports, bridges and major infrastructure around the world has given China enormous influence.</p>
<p>China has also built up a strong portfolio by <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-net/2018/rise-digital-authoritarianism">selling intelligent monitoring systems</a> (which can be used to censor negative public opinion online) and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/poi3.183">surveillance technology</a> to other countries. It also exported its <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/01/exporting-chinas-social-credit-system-to-central-asia/">social credit system</a> to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Mongolia. </p>
<p>These are <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Mirror">Black Mirror</a>-style systems where governments can score people for taking actions that officials approve of. This development is worrying as China is now exporting <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/china-social-credit-system-explained">the technological means</a> (through which it has achieved its near-total social and political control) to other authoritarian-minded countries.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/brazil-how-populist-politicians-use-religion-to-help-them-win-187742">Brazil: how populist politicians use religion to help them win</a>
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<p>For the last several years, Beijing has questioned the idea of universal <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s42738-019-00035-9">human rights at United Nations’</a> meetings. In 2018, it requested that the phrase “human rights defender” <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/24/china-starts-to-assert-its-world-view-at-un-as-influence-grows">be removed from the UN lexicon</a>. If it is able to erode the idea of these rights then it will open up more room to expand authoritarian practices across democracies.</p>
<p>Democratic backsliding only appears to <a href="https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/43/4/7/12221/Bound-to-Fail-The-Rise-and-Fall-of-the-Liberal">perpetuate this</a>. It also limits the ability of the west to criticise China, Russia and others for increasingly ignoring the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/353147789_The_Term_Rules-based_International_Order_in_International_Legal_Discourses">“rules-based” international order</a>, for example, in the <a href="https://academic.oup.com/chinesejil/search-results?page=1&q=south%20china%20sea&fl_SiteID=5151&allJournals=1&SearchSourceType=1">South China Sea</a> or in <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1354066115601200">Ukraine</a>. </p>
<p>Beijing is currently creating an alternative way of ordering the world. China’s successful <a href="https://academic.oup.com/edited-volume/28354/chapter-abstract/215201502?redirectedFrom=fulltext">authoritarian-capitalist model</a> underpins this vision. China is also creating competing international institutions (such as the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0974928416643582">Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank</a> and the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1016/j.euras.2018.08.001">Shanghai Cooperation Organisation</a>. </p>
<p>Together with wider democratic decline, there is a mounting global convergence around authoritarianism. If these trends come to dominate global politics, the remaining democratic rights enjoyed in the west will be deeply threatened. At worst, they may be entirely replaced by repressive governments, heralding a new China-centric world order and the beginnings of an <a href="https://bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/the-authoritarian-century">authoritarian century</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189093/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Ogden does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>China is challenging the idea of democracy, but western leaders are eroding democratic rights too.Chris Ogden, Senior Lecturer in Asian Affairs, University of St AndrewsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1895002022-08-26T19:17:21Z2022-08-26T19:17:21ZFBI’s Mar-a-Lago search warrant affidavit reveals how Trump may have compromised national security – a legal expert answers 5 key questions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481357/original/file-20220826-14-tztka9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C26%2C5967%2C3846&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The seal of the Federal Bureau of Investigation is seen outside of its headquarters in Washington, DC on August 15, 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-seal-of-the-federal-bureau-of-investigation-is-seen-news-photo/1242529976?adppopup=true">Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The Justice Department on Aug. 26, 2022, <a href="https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/64872441/102/1/united-states-v-sealed-search-warrant/">released an affidavit</a> written by an FBI special agent that was used to obtain a court order for the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/23/trump-records-mar-a-lago-fbi/">FBI’s search of former President Donald Trump’s Florida estate</a> for documents related to national defense and other government records.</em> </p>
<p><em>Large portions of the affidavit were blocked from public view, leaving many questions about details of the investigation. Nonetheless, what is visible shows the FBI had solid evidence that Trump took documents critical to national security to his Mar-a-Lago estate.</em></p>
<p><em>Florida federal Judge Bruce Reinhart had <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-justice-dept-poised-release-redacted-affidavit-trump-search-2022-08-26/">ordered on Aug. 22, 2022, that the affidavit</a> – which typically contains key details about an investigation to justify a search warrant – <a href="https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.617854/gov.uscourts.flsd.617854.99.0_11.pdf">be made public</a> following a lawsuit from media organizations and other groups. But Reinhart <a href="https://theweek.com/donald-trump/1016198/judge-orders-fbi-to-release-redacted-affidavit-behind-search-of-trumps-mar-a">also said in his order that he would allow</a> the Justice Department <a href="https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/64872441/98/united-states-v-sealed-search-warrant/">to first redact</a> some of the affidavit’s most critical information, like “the identities of witnesses, law enforcement agents, and uncharged parties … the investigation’s strategy, direction, scope, sources, and methods, and … grand jury information.”</em></p>
<p><em>It’s the latest development in the legal conflict over government documents, including national security material, that Trump has kept in violation of the law, according to the affidavit. The document shows that there is what the law calls “<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/probable_cause">probable cause</a>” to believe that Trump committed various crimes, including violation of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/you-dont-have-to-be-a-spy-to-violate-the-espionage-act-and-other-crucial-facts-about-the-law-trump-may-have-broken-188708">Espionage Act</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>We asked Georgia State University <a href="http://www.clarkcunningham.org/">legal scholar</a> and <a href="https://www.yalelawjournal.org/forum/apple-and-the-american-revolution-remembering-why-we-have-the-fourth-amendment-1">search warrant expert</a> Clark Cunningham to answer five key questions to help explain this new development.</em></p>
<h2>1. What is a search warrant affidavit?</h2>
<p>Let’s start with <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/search_warrant">a search warrant, which is a court order</a> authorizing government agents to enter property without an owner’s permission to search for evidence of a crime. The warrant further authorizes agents to seize and take away such evidence if they find it. </p>
<p>In order to get a search warrant, the government must provide the court one or more statements made under oath that explain why the government believes a crime has been committed, establishing that there is sufficient justification for issuing the warrant. If the statement is written, it is <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/affidavit">called an affidavit</a>. This is why the first sentence of the unsealed affidavit has the words “being duly sworn” following the blacked-out name of the agent making the statement.</p>
<h2>2. What’s the most important takeway from this affidavit?</h2>
<p>Given that a lot of the information on the affidavit has been blacked out, probably the most telling new information is that the FBI agent says that a review of Mar-a-Lago documents the government had already obtained <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/09/politics/doj-investigation-trump-documents-timeline/index.html">by grand jury subpoena earlier this year</a> were marked in a way that would clearly indicate national security was at risk.</p>
<h2>3. How does the affidavit show national security was at risk?</h2>
<p>The affidavit reveals that some of the documents stored at Mar-a-Lago were <a href="https://www.allacronyms.com/HCS/Humint_Control_System">marked HCS</a>, indicating they were intelligence derived from clandestine human sources – or what we would think of as secret intelligence information provided by undercover agents or sources within foreign governments. If the identity of agents or sources is revealed, their intelligence value is compromised and, even, their lives may be at risk.</p>
<p>There were also documents marked FISA, meaning they were collected under the <a href="https://bja.ojp.gov/program/it/privacy-civil-liberties/authorities/statutes/1286">Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act</a>, documents <a href="https://csrc.nist.gov/glossary/term/noforn">marked NOFORN,</a> meaning that the information cannot be released in any form to a foreign government, as well as documents <a href="https://www.nsa.gov/Signals-Intelligence/Overview/">marked SI</a>, meaning they were derived from monitoring foreign governments’ communications.</p>
<h2>4. Is it common for a court to unseal an affidavit while an investigation is underway?</h2>
<p>Because a search warrant affidavit usually lays out the government’s case and identifies witnesses, it is <a href="https://www.timesunion.com/state/article/Why-search-warrants-rarely-unsealed-17369233.php">very rare for a search warrant affidavit to be unsealed</a> if there is an ongoing criminal investigation. That’s why there were so many redactions in the version of the affidavit that was released. If such an affidavit is unsealed, it’s most often later in the process, when criminal charges are actually filed.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481340/original/file-20220826-24-i4xa8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A female security guard or police officer is seen walking outside of a courthouse." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481340/original/file-20220826-24-i4xa8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481340/original/file-20220826-24-i4xa8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481340/original/file-20220826-24-i4xa8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481340/original/file-20220826-24-i4xa8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481340/original/file-20220826-24-i4xa8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481340/original/file-20220826-24-i4xa8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481340/original/file-20220826-24-i4xa8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Security officers guard the entrance to the federal courthouse in West Palm Beach on Aug. 18, 2022, as the court holds a hearing to determine if the Trump affidavit should be unsealed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/security-officers-guard-the-entrance-to-the-paul-g-rogers-federal-picture-id1242577909?s=2048x2048">Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>5. What does this say about the investigation and the seriousness of Trump’s alleged crimes?</h2>
<p>The information revealed in the affidavit indicates that the country’s national security and the safety of intelligence agents were possibly put at severe risk when national defense documents were apparently stored in a room at a resort in Florida. </p>
<p>It’s a little confusing – there’s been much <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/13/trump-warrant-classified-answers/">talk in the media about classified information</a>. Improper storing of classified information is a crime, but that is not what is being investigated here. A much more serious crime under the Espionage Act is at stake. </p>
<p>Even someone like a former president who initially had lawful possession of national defense information commits a felony by <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/793">retaining that information after the government demands its return</a>. Trump can not hang on to national defense documents even if, while president, he “declassified” such documents, as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/18/politics/trump-claim-standing-order-declassify-nonsense-patently-false-former-officials/index.html">he claims he did</a>. </p>
<p>It’s been documented that a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/25/us/chinese-zhang-mar-a-lago.html">Chinese spy</a> penetrated Mar-a-Lago while Trump was president. It is an unsecured location. If a foreign spy got into that room and walked out with information disclosing U.S. undercover agents around the world, or how we have been monitoring and collecting classified information around the world, I see the potential harm as staggering.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189500/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clark D. Cunningham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A search warrant expert breaks down the affidavit the FBI used to search Mar-a-Lago, and the national security concerns it presents.Clark D. Cunningham, W. Lee Burge Chair in Law & Ethics; Director, National Institute for Teaching Ethics & Professionalism, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1892712022-08-23T23:40:45Z2022-08-23T23:40:45ZTrump’s Mar-a-Lago lawsuit spotlights how difficult search warrants are to challenge – by a criminal suspect or an ex-president – until charges are brought<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480644/original/file-20220823-25-62ver2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mar-a-Lago is shown on Aug. 16, 2022, a week after the FBI's raid. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/maralago-is-seen-august-16-2022-a-week-after-the-fbi-raided-the-home-picture-id1242585509?s=2048x2048">Nathan Posner/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Some observers say that the lawsuit filed by former President Donald Trump on <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/08/22/donald-trump-fbi-search-lawsuit">Aug. 22, 2022,</a> challenging the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-searching-an-ex-presidents-estate-is-not-easily-done-4-important-things-to-know-about-the-fbis-search-of-mar-a-lago-188438">FBI’s recent search</a> of his Mar-a-Lago estate is “filled with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/22/us/politics/trump-warrant-affidavit-reinhart.html">bombastic complaints”</a> and will <a href="https://twitter.com/PoliticusSarah/status/1561844965269012482">“blow up in his face.”</a>.</p>
<p>I am <a href="http://www.clarkcunningham.org/">a legal scholar</a> who is an expert on the various<a href="https://news.gsu.edu/2022/07/06/cunningham-legal-voice-for-jan-6-hearings-2020-presidential-election-investigation/"> Trump investigations</a> and the <a href="https://www.yalelawjournal.org/forum/apple-and-the-american-revolution-remembering-why-we-have-the-fourth-amendment-1">constitutional protections</a> against <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-getting-new-clinton-emails-did-the-fbi-violate-the-constitution-67906">wrongful searches</a>. </p>
<p>I think it is important to recognize that <a href="https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.618763/gov.uscourts.flsd.618763.1.0.pdf">Trump’s lawsuit</a> raises a very serious point: Current federal law does not provide good procedures to protect the rights of people subjected to a search warrant. </p>
<h2>Federal law’s limits on searches</h2>
<p>The Constitution protects “<a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-4/">the right of the people to be secure in their houses and papers</a>” and requires that search warrants must “<a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-4/">particularly describe</a>” the place to be searched and the things to be seized. </p>
<p><a href="https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.618763/gov.uscourts.flsd.618763.1.0.pdf">Trump’s lawsuit </a> asserts that these Constitutional protections were violated both by the broad language of the search warrant and the way it has been carried out by the FBI. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-62640448">Trump’s lawsuit</a> asks for a judge to halt the FBI’s review of what it seized from Mar-a-Lago and the appointment of an independent judicial officer to conduct the review instead.</p>
<p>Trump also asks for a more detailed receipt of what the FBI took, and for the agency to return all of the items not properly seized. </p>
<p>Granting these requests might both be fair to Trump and also in the public interest, by bolstering public confidence in the handling of the search, which has been <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/20/fbi-comes-under-threat-its-leader-tries-stay-out-view/">criticized by Trump and his supporters </a>as politically motivated, intrusive and overbroad.</p>
<p>However, as shown by <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/27/eastman-phone-seized-jan-6-00042680">a similar lawsuit </a>recently filed by one of Trump’s former lawyers, John Eastman, people who are subjected to a federal search have limited ability to challenge its legality.</p>
<p>Eastman’s <a href="https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.nmd.476086/gov.uscourts.nmd.476086.1.0_1.pdf">cellphone was taken</a> by federal agents as he was leaving a restaurant in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/06/27/eastman-phone-seized-fbi-jan6/">June 2022</a>, amid a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jul/16/john-eastman-cell-phone-seized-january-6">federal investigation </a>into his alleged attempt to overturn the 2020 election results. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.nmd.476086/gov.uscourts.nmd.476086.1.1.pdf">search warrant</a> authorized seizing “any and all electronic or digital devices and all information in such devices” without identifying what crime was being investigated. Eastman <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-attorney-john-eastman-says-fbi-agents-seized-his-phone-according-to-new-lawsuit/">challenged the warrant</a> on the same grounds as Trump’s lawsuit, claiming it authorized an overbroad search of everything stored on his phone. </p>
<p>Eastman tried to get a federal court to halt FBI examination of his phone by invoking a Federal Rule of Criminal Procedure, or Rule 41, which says “<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/rules/frcrmp/rule_41">a person aggrieved by an unlawful search and seizure</a>” may seek return of the seized property. In response, the government told the court that Eastman can only use Rule 41 to recover property for which he can show an urgent need. Eastman cannot use Rule 41 to challenge the constitutionality of the FBI seizing his phone or to prevent the law enforcement agency from reading attorney-client communications stored on the phone, the government said. </p>
<p>Trump’s lawsuit faces the same problem. Apart from Rule 41, there is currently no clear way under federal law to challenge the validity of a search unless and until criminal charges are filed. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480647/original/file-20220823-13-vdkxeh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People hold flags and signs that say 'The FBI is corrupt' and 'crimes happen here' on a street corner on a sunny day." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480647/original/file-20220823-13-vdkxeh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480647/original/file-20220823-13-vdkxeh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480647/original/file-20220823-13-vdkxeh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480647/original/file-20220823-13-vdkxeh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480647/original/file-20220823-13-vdkxeh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480647/original/file-20220823-13-vdkxeh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480647/original/file-20220823-13-vdkxeh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Demonstrators protest the FBI’s recent raid of Mar-a-Lago outside the agency’s Chelsea, Mass., building on Aug. 21, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/demonstrators-wave-flags-and-hold-signs-as-they-protest-the-recent-picture-id1242639842?s=2048x2048">Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>An often overlooked omission</h2>
<p>This loophole in federal law – and American law generally – means that court cases about searches are almost always in the context of criminal prosecution. </p>
<p>Because those making court arguments for rights against improper searches are usually accused or convicted criminals, the general public has paid little attention to the fact that search <a href="https://theconversation.com/feds-we-can-read-all-your-email-and-youll-never-know-65620">warrant procedures are an exception</a> to a fundamental principle of American law, which is that people <a href="https://theconversation.com/restoring-transparency-and-fairness-to-the-fbi-investigation-of-clinton-emails-67967">have the right to participate</a> in judicial proceedings regarding their rights. </p>
<p>As pointed out by the government <a href="https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/64872441/united-states-v-sealed-search-warrant/">in opposing the unsealing of the FBI affidavit </a>used to obtain the Mar-a-Lago warrant, federal courts consistently allow investigative records to be sealed from both the subjects of investigation and the public. A judge’s initial decision to issue a search warrant is almost always based only on a one-sided presentation by the government. </p>
<p>Not only do subjects of a requested warrant have no chance to present their side to the judge, but they do not even know about the warrant process until the government is at the door, warrant in hand. And then, <a href="https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.618763/gov.uscourts.flsd.618763.1.0.pdf">as Trump’s lawsuit complains</a>, this secrecy continues after the search is conducted as the government reviews what it seized.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480648/original/file-20220823-23-rz4lgs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large brown residential appearing building is shown on a day with dark clouds." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480648/original/file-20220823-23-rz4lgs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480648/original/file-20220823-23-rz4lgs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480648/original/file-20220823-23-rz4lgs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480648/original/file-20220823-23-rz4lgs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480648/original/file-20220823-23-rz4lgs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480648/original/file-20220823-23-rz4lgs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480648/original/file-20220823-23-rz4lgs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mar-a-Lago is seen on Aug. 16, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/maralago-is-seen-august-16-2022-a-week-after-the-fbi-raided-the-home-picture-id1242585654?s=2048x2048">Nathan Posner/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Trump’s request for a ‘special master’</h2>
<p>The FBI is now <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/22/trump-files-suit-special-master-mar-a-lago-search-00053196">using a “taint team”</a> for the Mar-a-Lago search and seizure of classified documents. This is a special group of agents designated to do an initial review of seized materials. </p>
<p>These screening officers then decide what materials can be turned over for further review by FBI agents doing the actual criminal investigation. In Trump’s case, however, the standards for such review are not public and nothing in the court record indicates review standards have been submitted for court approval. </p>
<p>Even if review criteria are clearly defined, the practice of using FBI agents for screening has been <a href="https://casetext.com/case/united-states-v-seal-in-re-search-warrant-issued-june">criticized by some courts</a> as providing insufficient protection against improper use of items seized during a search.</p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/appellate-courts/F3/454/511/489658/">one federal appellate court</a> described taint teams as putting the fox in charge of guarding the hen house. Even on the taint team, FBI agents may still have a “<a href="https://casetext.com/case/united-states-v-seal-in-re-search-warrant-issued-june">prosecutorial interest</a>” that could lead them to hand over documents to investigators that should be protected from government view. </p>
<p>This kind of action, whether because of <a href="https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/appellate-courts/F3/454/511/489658/">malice, neglect or simply an honest mistake</a>, can take place before the subjects of the search have an opportunity to seek court protections for their documents.</p>
<p>That court did what the Trump lawsuit is now requesting – <a href="https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=74560be8-27fc-4ff3-bdaf-f02e56138634">it ordered</a> that a temporary judicial officer, called a “<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/special_master">special master</a>,” take over the initial review, to exclude documents that should not be seen by the government. </p>
<p>There are other instances of commissioning a person to do such a job. In 2018, for example, when federal agents <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/26/nyregion/michael-cohen-investigation-special-master.html">executed search warrants</a> against Trump’s former personal attorney, Michael D. Cohen, a retired federal judge was appointed as a special master to screen everything that was seized before it could be turned over to prosecutors. </p>
<p>The justification for placing an independent judicial officer between the FBI and the trove of documents seized at Mar-a-Lago is underscored by the broad way the <a href="https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/mar-a-lago-search-warrant-and-inventory/6478c5980764438f/full.pdf">search warrant</a> was written. </p>
<p>The warrant not only authorized the FBI to seize classified documents, but it also allowed the FBI to seize “any other containers/boxes” that were “stored or found together” with boxes containing classified documents. </p>
<p>This means it is possible that some of the 26 boxes listed on <a href="https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/mar-a-lago-search-warrant-and-inventory/6478c5980764438f/full.pdf">the FBI’s property receipt</a> were seized not because they contained evidence of a crime but simply because they were stored in the same location as classified documents. Without something like the protections of a special master procedure, FBI agents could end up reading thousands of pages taken from Trump’s home that have no relevance to the suspected crimes listed in the warrant.</p>
<p>Perhaps now that the one-sided nature of search warrant procedures is being challenged by a former president, this problem will get new attention.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189271/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clark D. Cunningham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Trump’s lawsuit against the FBI has been criticized as baseless. But it spotlights a loophole in federal law that doesn’t protect people’s rights when they are subjected to a search warrant.Clark D. Cunningham, W. Lee Burge Chair in Law & Ethics; Director, National Institute for Teaching Ethics & Professionalism, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1886312022-08-15T18:09:40Z2022-08-15T18:09:40ZGOP ‘message laundering’ turns violent, extremist reactions to search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago into acceptable political talking points<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479151/original/file-20220815-19-n7qmyu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Supporters of former President Donald Trump rally in Bedminster, N.J., on Aug. 14, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/supporters-of-former-president-of-the-united-states-donald-j-trump-picture-id1242508358?s=2048x2048">Kyle Mazza/Andalou Agency via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After the FBI <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/13/trump-mar-a-lago-search/">completed a lawful search</a> of former president Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate on Aug. 8, 2022, conservative politicians responded with one of three strategies: <a href="https://cowboystatedaily.com/2022/08/10/wyoming-reacts-to-fbis-raid-on-trump-estate-cheney-goes-silent/">silence</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/3595121-mcconnell-calls-for-thorough-and-immediate-explanation-of-mar-a-lago-raid/">circumspection</a> and <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/republicans-lash-justice-department-fbi-searches-trumps-mar-lago-home-rcna42139">attack</a>.</p>
<p>Many responses echoed Trump’s own framing of the search. In his <a href="https://saveamerica.nucleusemail.com/amplify/v/XeHZxcJVhW">Aug. 8 message he claimed</a> his residence was “under siege, raided, and occupied by a large group of FBI agents.” In the statement, replete with war metaphors, Trump alleged that executing a legal warrant was “the weaponization of the Justice System” and an “assault” that “could only take place in broken, Third-World Countries.”</p>
<p>Trump’s framing of the event was <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/08/trump-fbi-search-reaction/">quickly echoed by most Republican politicians</a> commenting immediately on Twitter, despite the fact that they, like Democrats and the public, lacked relevant knowledge of the facts of the case that prompted the search and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/12/trump-warrant-release/">seizure of classified documents</a>. </p>
<p>The impulse to hastily legitimize Trump’s perspective illustrates a dangerous rhetorical strategy frequently employed by GOP politicians during the Trump era: <a href="https://ncpolicywatch.com/2021/05/24/message-laundering-how-the-far-right-is-getting-its-dirty-work-done-at-unc/">message laundering</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479149/original/file-20220815-19-l6mly9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A white man in a blue suit stands on a stage with the words 'Governor De Santis' lit up behind him. He throws a hat into an audience of people." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479149/original/file-20220815-19-l6mly9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479149/original/file-20220815-19-l6mly9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479149/original/file-20220815-19-l6mly9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479149/original/file-20220815-19-l6mly9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479149/original/file-20220815-19-l6mly9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479149/original/file-20220815-19-l6mly9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479149/original/file-20220815-19-l6mly9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks at a conservative student summit in Tampa on July 22, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/florida-gov-ron-desantis-tosses-hats-into-the-audience-as-he-takes-picture-id1410363357?s=2048x2048">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Conditioned to accept violence</h2>
<p>Message laundering occurs when inflammatory language and/or unsubstantiated claims are mixed with mainstream partisan communication and presented to the public with an air of respectability. Just as <a href="https://medium.com/@alacergroup/from-the-laundromat-to-wall-street-a-history-of-money-laundering-c6a5407e785c">money laundering</a> enabled mobsters to disguise their ill-gotten gain as the profits of a legitimate business, message laundering presents dishonest and dangerous speech as credible, innocuous or persuasive.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://www.libarts.colostate.edu/people/karrin/">political communication scholar</a>, I study how rhetoric strengthens or erodes democratic institutions. The aftermath of the FBI’s Mar-a-Lago search illustrates how message laundering can undermine democratic processes and gradually condition its audience to expect and accept violence.</p>
<p>After Trump released his statement, conservative politicians echoed key aspects of his message. Some sanitized Trump’s ideas by combining them with more measured critique or references to democratic processes. </p>
<p>House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., <a href="https://twitter.com/GOPLeader/status/1556807790433271809">decried</a> an “intolerable state of weaponized politicization” in the Justice Department, even as he promised to “follow the facts” and “leave no stone unturned” if the GOP retook the House. <a href="https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Democrats-slam-McCarthy-over-response-to-FBI-raid-17362251.php">Democrats</a> interpreted his directive to Attorney General Merrick Garland, “preserve your documents and clear your calendar,” <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/3593582-mccarthy-threatens-to-probe-garland-after-trump-fbi-raid/">as a threat</a>. But the tweet launders Trump’s notion of a weaponized Justice Department by combining it with McCarthy’s promise to use democratic processes to “follow the facts.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Tweet from Kevin McCarthy" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479046/original/file-20220814-41084-g64qfl.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479046/original/file-20220814-41084-g64qfl.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=787&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479046/original/file-20220814-41084-g64qfl.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=787&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479046/original/file-20220814-41084-g64qfl.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=787&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479046/original/file-20220814-41084-g64qfl.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=989&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479046/original/file-20220814-41084-g64qfl.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=989&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479046/original/file-20220814-41084-g64qfl.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=989&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Twitter.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Similarly, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem recycled Trump’s war metaphors in <a href="https://twitter.com/KristiNoem/status/1556793510229065728">her tweet</a>, saying, “The FBI raid on President Trump’s home is an unprecedented political weaponization of the Justice Department.” She tempered that imagery, however, by appealing to the rule of law in the same tweet, asserting that “using the criminal justice system in this manner is un-American.”</p>
<p>Not all of the GOP’s early statements were measured, however. Some laundered more extreme ideas and edged readers toward an acceptance of violence.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://twitter.com/RonDeSantisFL/status/1556803433939755010?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">tweet</a> sent the night of the search, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis labeled the search a “raid” and described it as “another escalation in the weaponization of federal agencies against the Regime’s political opponents.” He continued, saying, “Now the Regime is getting another 87k IRS agents to wield against its adversaries? Banana Republic.”</p>
<p>DeSantis’ invocation of “the Regime” legitimizes a fringe <a href="https://compactmag.com/article/they-can-t-let-him-back-in">notion peddled</a> by Michael Anton, a right-wing commentator and member of Trump’s administration. Anton speculates that Democratic elected officials would work in concert with members of the Biden administration, liberal judges and the media – who, together, form “the regime” – to prevent Trump from taking office again using legal or illegal means. </p>
<p>DeSantis referenced a <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertwood/2022/08/11/irs-to-add-87000-new-agents-more-crypto-tax-enforcement/?sh=7c1de1963213">budgetary item included in the Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act</a> that would allocate “$80 billion to the IRS.”</p>
<p>McCarthy also referred to that aspect of the bill, <a href="https://twitter.com/GOPLeader/status/1557088624499429377?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1557088624499429377%7Ctwgr%5E6d810e9beb50025f698719555b690d1a69a69cec%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politifact.com%2Ffactchecks%2F2022%2Faug%2F11%2Fkevin-mccarthy%2Fkevin-mccarthys-mostly-false-claim-about-army-8700%2F">alleging</a> a “new army of 87,000 IRS agents” are “coming for” American taxpayers. <a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/aug/11/kevin-mccarthy/kevin-mccarthys-mostly-false-claim-about-army-8700/">Politifact</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/11/hyperbolic-gop-claims-about-irs-agents-audits/">The Washington Post</a> debunked the notion. Yet Republicans <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/3594879-gop-rails-against-irs-funding-in-inflation-reduction-act/">repeatedly made that argument</a>.</p>
<h2>‘Gestapo’ and ‘brown shirts’</h2>
<p>The imagery of an “army” of federal agents turned against ordinary Americans via legislative mandate legitimized the alarmist rhetoric that followed. As GOP tweets coalesced, the line item from the Inflation Reduction Act merged with reports of the Mar-a-Lago search in ways designed to make individual voters feel vulnerable.</p>
<p>Rep. Andrew Clyde, R-Ga., <a href="https://twitter.com/Rep_Clyde/status/1557054031125778433">tweeted</a>, “If they weaponize the FBI to go after President Trump, they will surely weaponize the IRS’s 87,000 new agents to go after you.” </p>
<p>The GOP members of the House Judiciary Committee <a href="https://twitter.com/JudiciaryGOP/status/1556791214875328515">tweeted</a>, “If they can do it to a former President, imagine what they can do to you.” Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., <a href="https://twitter.com/laurenboebert/status/1556845893332205569">tweeted</a>, “This #DepartmentofInjustice must be held accountable. It was President Trump today, but it’s you next if we don’t take a stand.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Tweet from Rep. Lauren Boebert" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479047/original/file-20220814-59179-whppmy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479047/original/file-20220814-59179-whppmy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479047/original/file-20220814-59179-whppmy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479047/original/file-20220814-59179-whppmy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479047/original/file-20220814-59179-whppmy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=784&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479047/original/file-20220814-59179-whppmy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=784&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479047/original/file-20220814-59179-whppmy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=784&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Twitter.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After making audiences feel personally threatened, GOP messaging returned to the war posture implied in Trump’s original statement. </p>
<p>Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., <a href="https://twitter.com/RepMTG/status/1556783786976845824">tweeted</a> that the FBI “raiding President Trump’s home” was the “type of things that happen in countries during civil war.” Conservative pundits and politicians cast FBI agents as “<a href="https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1556806316445802502">Gestapo</a>” and “<a href="https://twitter.com/DrPaulGosar/status/1556790609213546496">brown shirts</a>,” the latter referring to Hitler’s storm troopers. In an interview on Fox News, Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., <a href="https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1556990717951713280">exclaimed</a>, “This should scare the living daylights out of America citizens” and compared the U.S. federal government to the Nazis, the Soviet Union and Latin American dictatorships.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479144/original/file-20220815-13-g4bf10.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A tweet that says 'Tomorrow is war. Sleep well.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479144/original/file-20220815-13-g4bf10.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479144/original/file-20220815-13-g4bf10.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=299&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479144/original/file-20220815-13-g4bf10.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=299&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479144/original/file-20220815-13-g4bf10.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=299&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479144/original/file-20220815-13-g4bf10.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479144/original/file-20220815-13-g4bf10.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479144/original/file-20220815-13-g4bf10.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A tweet sent by a conservative commentator on the evening of the day former President Trump announced the FBI had searched his Florida home.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://twitter.com/scrowder/status/1556830994354905094?s=20&t=ItwCMIgFWMy9VQfb8V_gcQ">Twitter</a></span>
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<h2>What’s next, #CivilWar?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/41939743">Communication scholars</a> have <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Demagoguery_and_Democracy.html?id=61ZeDgAAQBAJ">observed</a> that once political opponents are cast in those terms, democratic remedies are insufficient. The opponent must be destroyed, and violent repercussions seem reasonable. </p>
<p>A Bloomberg newsletter <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-08-10/fbi-raid-at-mar-a-lago-quickly-sparks-social-media-narratives">noted</a> that during the week of Aug. 8, the #CivilWar hashtag gained traction on various platforms, reflecting a “war-time mentality (that) has become increasingly common since it’s started to find footing with politicians.” </p>
<p>The Texas Nationalist Movement issued <a href="https://tnm.me/news/tnm-news/statement-on-the-federal-raid-of-the-trump-residence/">a statement</a> citing the “raid” on Mar-a-Lago, the “weaponization and politicization of federal instruments of power” and the “announcement of the hiring of 87,000 IRS agents” as grounds for Texas to secede. </p>
<p>During the week that followed the Mar-a-Lago search, FBI <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/12/fbi-threats-trump-search/">officials reported</a> numerous instances of individuals threatening FBI field offices, with some confrontations ending in violence. On Aug. 12, the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security released a <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/fbi-dhs-warn-threats-federal-law-enforcement-spiked-wake-mar-lago-sear-rcna43024">joint bulletin</a> documenting an increase in violent threats to law enforcement and other government officials.</p>
<p>Message laundering does not always result in politically motivated violence, but it can make violence seem like a logical and reasonable response to partisan disagreement. Voters should be aware of this rhetorical tactic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188631/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karrin Vasby Anderson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Threats to law enforcement have risen in the aftermath of the FBI raid on former President Trump’s Florida estate. Does ‘message laundering’ by top GOP figures have something to do with it?Karrin Vasby Anderson, Professor of Communication Studies, Colorado State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1856872022-07-01T05:12:22Z2022-07-01T05:12:22ZThe United States was founded on allegiance to laws, not leaders. The Jan 6 rioters turned that on its head<p>When colonial Americans declared their independence on July 4 1776, they rejected more than British rule. They explicitly denounced the British form of government and the unlegislated norms, traditions and conventions a royal head of government entailed. </p>
<p>The recent hearings of the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6 2021 attack on the US Capitol has made clear that efforts to resist the monarchical model remain unfinished.</p>
<p>The central question at hand: is the nation’s democracy ensured by allegiance to its constitution or to its leaders? </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/jan-6-hearing-gives-primetime-exposure-to-violent-footage-and-dramatic-evidence-the-question-is-to-what-end-184416">Jan. 6 hearing gives primetime exposure to violent footage and dramatic evidence – the question is, to what end?</a>
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<h2>Competing allegiances</h2>
<p>The sixth and most recent hearing by the Select Committee into the January 6 Capitol riots got to the heart of the matter on allegiances. </p>
<p>Liz Cheney, the committee’s lead Republican lawmaker, said that among the more than 1,000 witnesses who testified before their committee, some have faced intimidation to remain “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqFE9YtsWFg">loyal</a>” to former President Trump. </p>
<p>US citizens don’t swear oaths of loyalty to any monarch, individual or party – they swear allegiance to a constitution treated by most Americans with a level of reverence otherwise reserved for religious entities. </p>
<p>To this day, practically every single US government official <a href="https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/common/briefing/Oath_Office.htm">vows</a> to support and defend the US Constitution from all enemies, foreign and domestic. </p>
<p>Nearly 20 hours’ worth of public hearings by the committee has demonstrated that for many members of the Trump administration – most notably Vice President Mike Pence, the White House Counsel’s Office, and Attorney General Bill Barr – swearing allegiance to the constitution was foundational to their public service. </p>
<p>However, for a crucial and powerful minority – most notably Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, President Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani, former legal advisor John Eastman, and President Trump himself – it seemingly was not. </p>
<h2>Political violence and dissatisfaction with democracy</h2>
<p>Recent polling found only half of US citizens are satisfied with their democracy. Two-thirds said the US system of government <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2021/03/31/many-in-us-western-europe-say-their-political-system-needs-major-reform/">needs major changes</a>, if not a complete reform.</p>
<p>Such pessimistic attitudes are an outlier when compared, for example, to the <a href="https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/state-of-the-united-states-bidens-agenda-in-the-balance#democratic-backsliding-in-america">80% of Australians</a> who remain satisfied with their democracy. </p>
<p>Dissatisfaction with democracy and its institutions isn’t new in <a href="https://theconversation.com/joe-biden-wins-the-election-and-now-has-to-fight-the-one-thing-americans-agree-on-the-nations-deep-division-148106">modern US life</a>. </p>
<p>What’s new, however, is these trends coincide with a marked increase in the number of US citizens who support political violence. This ultimately resulted in the first ever attempted hostile takeover of Congress on January 6.</p>
<p>In May 1995, <a href="https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/documents/7812537d-0ab0-4537-8fa3-794bda4b7d51/note/c0ed3cb7-2db8-45e1-89df-364b69e24c73.#page=1">fewer than 10%</a> of Americans said it was “justified for citizens to take violent action against the government”.</p>
<p>In October 2015, <a href="https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/documents/7812537d-0ab0-4537-8fa3-794bda4b7d51/note/c0ed3cb7-2db8-45e1-89df-364b69e24c73.#page=1">23% agreed</a> with that statement. In December 2021, almost a year after the January 6 riots, <a href="https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/documents/7812537d-0ab0-4537-8fa3-794bda4b7d51/note/c0ed3cb7-2db8-45e1-89df-364b69e24c73.#page=1">34% agreed</a> with that statement.</p>
<p>John Eastman, the renowned and once-respected lawyer who advised the Trump re-election campaign, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/january-6-hearings-june-16/h_9c12bbffa1fdba36db104fc25aaa4f02">reportedly accepted and anticipated such violence, saying</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>there’s been violence in the history of our country in order to protect the democracy, or to protect the republic.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The prevailing view among those seeking to overturn the election results was that the well-being of American democracy depended on the continued reign of President Trump.</p>
<p>Indeed, according to the testimony of Cassidy Hutchinson, former assistant to Trump’s Chief of Staff, rioting was expected and deemed necessary by many in Trump’s inner circle.</p>
<p>Hutchinson’s testimony gave a compelling account indicating that Trump and several others understood the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/06/16/1105683634/transcript-jan-6-committee">undemocratic</a> and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/06/29/1108513190/cassidy-hutchinson-provides-explosive-testimony-during-the-jan-6-hearing">potentially violent</a> nature of their intended actions – planned <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/06/18/evidence-january-6-plot-corrupt/">many weeks in advance</a> – but pursued them undeterred.</p>
<p>To save US democracy, they undermined it.</p>
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<h2>What has the Jan 6 committee taught us?</h2>
<p>The January 6 Committee has shown that US democracy remains reliant on the actions of individuals. As Rep. Bennie Thompson, chair of the House committee, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/january-6-hearings-june-21/h_643f5a5486a1f392068df445020bf96c">put it</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>A handful of election officials in several key states stood between Donald Trump and the upending of democracy.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>At the conclusion of the most recent and arguably the most consequential public hearings of the January 6 committee thus far, Cheney <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/06/28/trump-sought-lead-armed-mob-capitol-jan-6-aide-says/">reaffirmed</a> the importance of such individuals:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Our nation is preserved by those who abide by their oath to our constitution. Our nation is preserved by those who know the fundamental difference between right and wrong.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>When faced with the question of laws versus leaders, the founding fathers chose laws. But many of the people now under investigation by the committee will come under intense scrutiny as to whether they chose loyalty to Trump over laws.</p>
<h2>Will Trump be indicted?</h2>
<p>Many people would say an obvious path forward now lies with Attorney General Merrick Garland. He must decide whether he will take the unprecedented step of indicting a former president on charges ranging from sedition and inciting a riot to breaking campaign finance laws.</p>
<p>Although an estimated <a href="https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000181-ad84-d618-a99d-edf70cf50000&nname=playbook&nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&nrid=0000014e-f115-dd93-ad7f-f91513e50001&nlid=630318">two-thirds of US citizens</a> support prosecuting Trump for his alleged efforts to overturn the election, even some Democrats have <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/the-report/articles/2022-06-24/the-pros-and-cons-of-charging-trump-with-a-crime">expressed concern</a> about the potential pitfalls involved.</p>
<p>There’s the danger of the Department of Justice appearing overly partisan, and also potentially setting a precedent in which opposing political parties indict former presidents as soon as they leave power.</p>
<p>But, perhaps more importantly, one former US federal prosecutor argued there’s also the high likelihood the former president would <a href="https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-real-reason-feds-trump-20220310-fhbuuviedva35a27c3fvokdive-story.html">never be convicted</a> by a jury:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Despite a mountain of evidence that would convict most people many times over, Trump would not be convicted. Criminal convictions require a unanimous verdict. On a 12-person jury, there are going to be Trump supporters.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The US continues to grapple with the anti-royal concept of no individual being above the law.</p>
<h2>Where to from here?</h2>
<p>The US has a history of reinventing itself in unique and unprecedented ways, most notably by founding a new nation based on laws instead of kings. </p>
<p>This critical moment, in which a former holder of the nation’s most powerful office is under investigation, gives the world’s oldest democracy an opportunity to embrace its revolutionary roots and finally reject monarchy in all its forms. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canada-should-be-preparing-for-the-end-of-american-democracy-176930">Canada should be preparing for the end of American democracy</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185687/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The investigation into the January 6 Capitol riots asks: is the nation’s well-being ensured by allegiance to its laws or its leaders? The founding fathers chose the former – could we say the same for Trump’s inner circle?Jared Mondschein, Senior Research Fellow, US Studies Centre, University of SydneyVictoria Cooper, Research associate, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1844162022-06-10T03:52:21Z2022-06-10T03:52:21ZJan. 6 hearing gives primetime exposure to violent footage and dramatic evidence – the question is, to what end?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468155/original/file-20220610-29204-p73uas.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4479%2C2836&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A video image shows the U.S. Capitol grounds being breached as the House Jan. 6 committee holds its first public hearing. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CapitolRiotInvestigation/89130aa8a0c34291b9208f0bff7e05da/photo?Query=capitol%20hearing%20committee&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=42515&currentItemNo=90">Mandel Ngan/Pool via AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>A violent mob of Trump supporters <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/spotlight/us-capitol-riots-investigations">attacked the U.S. Capitol building on Jan. 6, 2021</a>, intent on disrupting a joint session of Congress that was meeting to count electoral votes and declare Democrat Joe Biden the winner of the 2020 presidential election.</em></p>
<p><em>They did not succeed in preventing Biden’s certification as president, but <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/05/us/politics/jan-6-capitol-deaths.html">seven people died in the attack and its immediate aftermath and around 150 police</a> were attacked and injured.</em></p>
<p><em>That event did not take place in a vacuum. For months, President Donald Trump had maintained that if <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/24/trump-casts-doubt-2020-election-integrity-421280">he lost his bid for re-election, it would be the result of fraud</a>. His fictional claims of victory were <a href="https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-michael-pence-electoral-college-elections-health-2d9bd47a8bd3561682ac46c6b3873a10">repeatedly disproven</a> throughout the post-election period.</em></p>
<p><em>The first public hearing of the <a href="https://january6th.house.gov/">House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6 Attack on the United States Capitol</a> took place on June 9, 2022. It began the process of revealing what the committee has learned so far about the planning and carrying out of the attack on American democracy, and the role Trump played in it.</em></p>
<p><em>“Our work must do much more than look backwards,” said committee chairman, U.S. Rep. Bennie Thompson of Mississippi. “Because our democracy remains in danger.” We asked three scholars to watch the hearing and respond.</em></p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468154/original/file-20220610-8276-pldibp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman in a blue jacket and wearing glasses is talking at a large desk in front of the American flag; next to her is a man in a suit and tie." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468154/original/file-20220610-8276-pldibp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468154/original/file-20220610-8276-pldibp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468154/original/file-20220610-8276-pldibp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468154/original/file-20220610-8276-pldibp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468154/original/file-20220610-8276-pldibp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468154/original/file-20220610-8276-pldibp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468154/original/file-20220610-8276-pldibp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Committee Vice Chair Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., gives her opening remarks as Committee Chairman Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., left, looks on.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXCapitolRiotInvestigation/b4550fce3a2341afb40b9fc165d7eb61/photo?Query=cheney&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=2331&currentItemNo=26">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</a></span>
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<h2>Theatrical? Yes, but also substantive</h2>
<p><strong>Claire Leavitt, visiting assistant political science professor, Grinnell College</strong></p>
<p>First, let’s be realistic about the scope of the committee’s investigation. Expert observers have said it is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/10/us/politics/jan-6-trump-criminal-referral.html">unlikely that it will result in criminal charges against Trump</a> or <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/09/housse-democrats-jan-6-2024-00038305">increase Democrats’ prospects in the November midterms</a>.</p>
<p>But what viewers saw is perhaps even more significant – it was history being written in real time. These hearings will inform future history textbooks, movies and novels that depict the first non-peaceful transfer of power in American history. </p>
<p>The first of several hearings planned in the coming weeks was theatrical and slickly produced. Former ABC News President <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/06/06/jan-6-committee-adviser-james-goldston">James Goldston</a> is advising the committee and helping to maximize viewership, producing the hearings <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/09/us/the-committee-hired-a-tv-executive-to-produce-the-hearings-for-maximum-impact.html">like a mini-drama</a>. </p>
<p>Speakers of the evening session, including committee vice-chair U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, spliced their comments with violent, new footage from the Capitol attacks.</p>
<p>But we should not mistake theatrics for lack of substance.</p>
<p>Both Cheney and committee chair Bennie Thompson peppered their statements with extensive primary evidence, including video testimony from top Trump administration figures, including Ivanka Trump. This, it would appear, was to strengthen the case that the evidence being presented was nonpartisan. </p>
<p>“I repeatedly told the president in no uncertain terms that I did not see evidence of fraud,” Trump’s former Attorney General William Barr said in one interview.</p>
<p>In another exchange presented during the hearing, Greg Jacob, former counsel to Vice President Mike Pence, wrote in an email to Trump’s lawyer John Eastman: “<a href="https://twitter.com/meghanncuniff/status/1499221495968530434?lang=en">Thanks to your bullshit, we are under siege</a>.”</p>
<p>The committee’s first witness, Capitol police officer Caroline Edwards, was a smart choice: <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1597/confidence-institutions.aspx">Far more Americans trust the police than Congress</a>.</p>
<p>Edwards detailed how she suffered a concussion after rioters pushed a bike rack against her and she fell on a stairway. She regained consciousness, and then continued to push people back, as they “started overpowering us,” she recalled. </p>
<p>Edwards and another witness, documentary filmmaker Nick Quested, may not be the big names <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/08/brad-raffensperger-testify-jan-6-committee-00038325">slated to testify at future hearings</a>. </p>
<p>But neither appeared to have political axes to grind, and both exuded a highly valuable political commodity: likability. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A solemn woman and man stand and raise their right hand as they are sworn in to testify." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468147/original/file-20220610-27901-oin2ra.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468147/original/file-20220610-27901-oin2ra.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468147/original/file-20220610-27901-oin2ra.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468147/original/file-20220610-27901-oin2ra.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468147/original/file-20220610-27901-oin2ra.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468147/original/file-20220610-27901-oin2ra.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468147/original/file-20220610-27901-oin2ra.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">U.S. Capitol Police Officer Caroline Edwards and documentary filmmaker Nick Quested gave firsthand accounts of the Jan. 6 attack.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/capitol-police-officer-caroline-edwards-and-documentary-news-photo/1241207292?adppopup=true">Jonathan Ernst/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p></p><hr><p></p>
<h2>Show, don’t tell</h2>
<p><strong>Mark Satta, assistant professor of philosophy, Wayne State University</strong></p>
<p>The House committee faces the challenge of trying to provide the American public with truthful information about the Jan. 6 attack at a time of <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/13/america-is-exceptional-in-the-nature-of-its-political-divide/">deep partisan division</a> and <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/06/06/public-trust-in-government-1958-2022/">historically low levels of public trust in government</a>. </p>
<p>Confronted with that reality, the committee seems to have decided upon a smart response: Show, don’t tell.</p>
<p>Rather than simply telling the American public the facts, the panel’s first public hearing focused on showing what former president Donald Trump’s allies and supporters themselves have said and done. They paired that with the testimony of seemingly nonpartisan figures like Capitol police officer Caroline Edwards and documentary filmmaker Nick Quested. </p>
<p>It’s not clear whether these hearings will make a demonstrable difference in the public’s perception of the Jan. 6 attack. Maybe they won’t. Maybe America’s partisan divisions are too deep. </p>
<p>But the committee’s choice to showcase the words and deeds of others is in line with <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-problem-of-living-inside-echo-chambers-110486">philosopher C. Thi Nguyen’s 2019 observation</a> that “the crucial issue right now isn’t what people hear, but whom people believe.”</p>
<p>The committee chose to emphasize the words and actions of figures who Trump supporters and other Republicans would appear inclined to believe, such as Trump’s daughter Ivanka and his former attorney general, William Barr. Importantly, the committee chose to do so not only by reading statements into the record but by showing videos, tweets and text exchanges. The facts were purveyed directly, not interpreted by committee members.</p>
<p>The committee could have told the American public that the mob that stormed the capitol was violent. But they could not have conveyed the gravity of the situation the same way that Edwards did when she testified about her experience on the Jan. 6 attack.</p>
<p>“I was slipping in people’s blood,” <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/06/09/us/jan-6-hearings">she said</a>. “I was catching people as they fell. It was carnage. It was chaos … Never in my wildest dreams did I think as a police officer, I would find myself in the middle of a battle.”</p>
<p></p><hr><p></p>
<h2>A multi-front battle</h2>
<p><strong>Ken Hughes, research specialist, University of Virginia</strong></p>
<p>Much like the <a href="https://americanarchive.org/special_collections/watergate">televised Watergate hearings</a> half a century ago, the Jan. 6 committee hearings are essential. </p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/06/09/january-6-committee-hearing-live-updates/7529743001/">an avalanche of evidence</a> against a president wasn’t enough to secure the republic then, and it isn’t now. </p>
<p>During the Watergate era, congressional Republicans didn’t hold the president accountable <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-smoking-gun-tape-is-worse-than-nixons-but-congressional-republicans-have-less-incentive-to-do-anything-about-it-152643">until they feared that a majority of American voters would hold them accountable</a> for failing to do so. </p>
<p>Long before <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/longterm/watergate/articles/080974-3.htm">Richard M. Nixon resigned in August 1974</a>, we saw televised congressional hearings that revealed evidence of <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-HPREC-DESCHLERS-V3/html/GPO-HPREC-DESCHLERS-V3-5-5-2.htm">presidential high crimes</a>, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/woodward-and-bernstein-reflect-on-the-parallels-between-watergate-and-the-capitol-attack">heroic investigative journalism</a> and numerous criminal investigations, prosecutions and <a href="https://watergate.info/analysis/casualties-and-convictions">convictions</a>. </p>
<p>None of it was enough, as long as Republicans were afraid that their primary voters would punish them if they didn’t support the president. </p>
<p>Once their primaries were behind them, these same politicians grew afraid that general election voters, the American majority, would punish them for continuing to give the president their support, even when his high crimes were evident. </p>
<p>The revelation of the “<a href="https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/secret-white-house-tapes/smoking-gun">smoking gun” tape</a> in August of 1974 was the occasion for Nixon’s resignation, not the cause. </p>
<p>Republicans abandoned the president then because they realized that the majority of voters were abandoning them.</p>
<p>What’s different in this era is that <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/04/how-stop-minority-rule-doom-loop/618536/">Republican political elites</a> calculate that they don’t have to serve the majority.</p>
<p>Constitutional provisions designed to protect minority rights – the courts, the Senate and the Electoral College – have become the instruments of minority rule.</p>
<p>Even when the majority votes against them, they can control the White House, the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/01/politics/supreme-court-6-3-conservative-liberal/index.html">Supreme Court</a>, the <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2021/2/23/2013769/-How-minority-rule-plagues-Senate-Republicans-last-won-more-support-than-Democrats-two-decades-ago">Senate</a> and, thanks to <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/gerrymandering-explained">gerrymandering at the state level</a>, the <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/extreme-gerrymandering-2018-midterm">House of Represenatives</a>. </p>
<p>That’s why the struggle to preserve the republic is a multi-front battle, being fought out not only at the federal level, but in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/05/us/politics/america-first-secretary-of-state-candidates.html">state</a> races and in <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/01/gop-contest-elections-tapes-00035758">polling places</a> where votes are counted and certified.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184416/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Leavitt has received funding from the Project on Government Oversight (POGO) and the Levin Center for Oversight and Democracy. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ken Hughes and Mark Satta do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol held its first hearing to present what it has learned during its almost year-long probe. Three scholars analyze the event.Mark Satta, Assistant Professor of Philosophy, Wayne State UniversityClaire Leavitt, Visiting Assistant Professor of Political Science and Policy Studies, Grinnell CollegeKen Hughes, Research Specialist, the Miller Center, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1834162022-05-18T20:27:49Z2022-05-18T20:27:49ZAppealing to Trump (and his base) might have worked in Pennsylvania primaries – but it won’t play so well in the midterms<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464079/original/file-20220518-17-6nn6jw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C54%2C4524%2C2968&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The doctor is in ... with Trump, at least.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2022SenatePennsylvania/24762581aa57440d924d43859f4125bb/photo?Query=trump%20oz&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=32&currentItemNo=2">AP Photo/Gene J. Puska</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/17/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-us-senate.html">Pennsylvania primaries</a> of May 17, 2022, proved a good night for Donald Trump, a better one for “Trumpism” and a problem for moderates hoping for a candidate primed to capture the center in the upcoming midterms. </p>
<p>Trump’s officially endorsed Senate candidate, Mehmet Oz, is <a href="https://www.wgal.com/article/automatic-recount-pennsylvania-primary-dave-mccormick-dr-oz/40033116">currently in a tight race</a> with main GOP rival David McCormick – with the balloting set for a recount.</p>
<p>Both ran their primary campaign as Trumpist candidates and <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/pittsburgh/news/david-mccormick-donald-trump-endorsement-mehmet-oz/">vied for the former president’s nod</a>. Meanwhile, third place in the GOP race went to Kathy Barnette, a Fox News commentator who touts herself as <a href="https://time.com/6177232/kathy-barnette-pennsylvania-senate-republican-primary/">more MAGA than Trump</a>. </p>
<p>The fact that all three leading GOP candidates had the DNA of Trumpism in them suggests a couple of things. First, it indicates that echoing the policies, rhetorical style and personality of the former president can be an effective tool for Republican candidates seeking to appeal to the party base. And this is especially important in a <a href="https://www.fairvote.org/open_and_closed_primaries">closed-primary state</a> such as Pennsylvania, in which only party members have a say in who gets to run for Senate. </p>
<p>And second, it raises a question about the tried-and-tested plan of candidates’ appealing to the party base in the primary before pivoting closer to the center in the general election: Will that post-primary transformation be possible for Republicans in Pennsylvania – and elsewhere – in 2022?</p>
<h2>All local politics is national</h2>
<p>The Pennsylvania primary proved that the adage that “<a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/all-politics-is-local-the-debate-and-the-graphs/">all politics is local</a>” has to some degree been inverted: Local and state elections are now run on national issues and are influenced by national figures.</p>
<p>But whereas a Trump endorsement in the recent Ohio primary <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/jd-vance-poll-donald-trump-b2066919.html">resulted in an immediate surge</a> for his anointed candidate, J.D. Vance, Pennsylvania didn’t quite play out the same way.</p>
<p>Oz’s chance of winning was certainly <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/16/trump-oz-pennsylvania-senate-00032900">not harmed by getting Trump’s stamp of approval</a>. But he didn’t seem to take many votes off McCormick or Barnette in the process. In fact, some see Barnette <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/13/us/elections/kathy-barnette-pennsylvania-senate.html">faring better than expected</a> because Trump supporters decided to vote for her as “the more Trump” candidate, over Oz as the “official” Trump candidate. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, Trump’s endorsement actually meant very little for Doug Mastriano, who won the state’s GOP primary for governor. Mastriano – an avidly Trumpian candidate who repeats the former president’s election conspiracy theories – was already <a href="https://www.wgal.com/article/franklin-and-marshall-poll-may-2022-pennsylvania-primary/39914699#">pulling ahead</a> by the time Trump made a late nod of approval in his favor.</p>
<p>The point is, whether these Republican candidates are seen as being faithful to Trump’s signature MAGA cause is what matters when it comes to winning in these primaries.</p>
<p>But here’s the rub for Republicans. That may work well enough in firing up the base during primary season, but it complicates the pivot to running against Democrats – and appealing to more moderate voters – in the midterm election. A candidate like Mastriano will have to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/far-right-election-denier-mastriano-wins-gop-race-governor-pennsylvani-rcna29136">defend positions like</a> a total ban on abortion, reversal of support for mail-in voting and conspiracy theories about the 2020 election. </p>
<p>Pennsylvania is seen as a <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/17/seven-states-decide-senate-control-00032881">toss-up state</a> when it comes to the Senate vote. In such circumstances, appealing to the center becomes more important – party faithful tend to be locked in; swing voters are up for grabs.</p>
<p>Any GOP candidate who hitches his or her wagon to Trumpian policies and rhetoric may find it harder to appeal to centrists – and may actually alienate some moderate Republicans.</p>
<h2>Circling back to the center</h2>
<p>A similar dynamic played out in Pennsylvania in the Democratic primary race for Senate, but with success found by positioning policies to the left of the center. One of the more progressive candidates, Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/17/john-fetterman-pennsylvania-primary/">prevailed against</a> the moderate Rep. Conor Lamb. </p>
<p>But even so, Fetterman has, I believe, more room to maneuver come the general election. Fetterman has experience running for – and winning – a statewide office before. Moreover, he has carefully cultivated an “everyman” image, which could play well against either Oz or hedge fund CEO McCormick. Even so, he will have to defend more progressive positions that could also turn off moderate Republicans. </p>
<p>Success in the Pennsylvania primaries came to those candidates able to position themselves away from the center and more in line with the party’s ideological extreme. But it is the Republican candidate, in vying against others for Trump’s blessing as well as his base, who might find it more difficult to circle back to the center during the midterms.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183416/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel J. Mallinson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The three leading candidates in the GOP Senate primary race in Pennsylvania all hitched their wagons to Trump. But will that make it harder for the Republican winner to win the center come the fall?Daniel J. Mallinson, Assistant Professor of Public Policy and Administration, School of Public Affairs, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1819372022-05-03T13:09:39Z2022-05-03T13:09:39ZHow Marine Le Pen managed to gain ground with youth voters – and why her success isn’t being replicated by the US right<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460836/original/file-20220502-6157-n6xhg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C696%2C4120%2C1776&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Marine Le Pen going down well with her young supporters.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/frances-far-right-party-rassemblement-national-leader-news-photo/1391462840?adppopup=true">Chesnot/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen may have missed out on the French presidency, falling <a href="https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2022/FE.html">17 pecentage points short</a> of incumbent Emmanuel Macron <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/24/world/french-election-runoff-results">in a runoff</a> held April 24, 2022. But to characterize her campaign as a total loss would be missing an essential point: with nearly 41.2% of the vote, a far-right contender came closer to securing the French presidency than at any point in the past.</p>
<p>She outperformed the previous two times that her party got through to the final round. In 2017, Le Pen received only <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2017/may/07/french-presidential-election-results-latest">33.9% of the vote</a>. Her father and predecessor as head of the Front National – now rebranded as Rassemblement National, or National Rally – won <a href="http://www.electionresources.org/fr/president.php?election=2002">just 17.8% of the vote</a> in the 2002 runoff.</p>
<p>Marine Le Pen is enjoying an undeniable, upward trend in popularity.</p>
<h2>Chasing the youth vote</h2>
<p>The growth in support for France’s far right isn’t taking place in a vacuum. A wave of populist sentiment has swept across <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-62855-4">much of Europe</a> <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/532781-the-future-of-populism-in-america/">and North America</a> in the last few years. Moreover, the French and American far right have demonstrated a <a href="https://www.leparisien.fr/politique/candace-owens-invitee-de-marion-marechal-macron-n-est-pas-un-leader-fort-21-09-2019-8156766.php">mutual admiration</a> and <a href="https://www.france24.com/fr/france/20220215-%C3%A9ric-zemmour-se-f%C3%A9licite-d-un-long-et-chaleureux-entretien-t%C3%A9l%C3%A9phonique-avec-donald-trump">exchange of strategies</a>. The French right’s <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/14/the-french-right-is-obsessed-with-fighting-wokeness/">fight against “wokisme”</a> echoes American conservative discourse around critical race theory. Similarly, the American right <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/tucker-carlson-pushes-racist-great-replacement-theory-yet-again-adl-renews-call-for-fox-to-fire-him">has drawn inspiration</a> from French writer Renaud Camus’ <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/fr/2019/09/20/world/europe/renaud-camus-grand-replacement.html">white nationalist</a> idea of a “<a href="https://www.adl.org/education/references/hate-symbols/you-will-not-replace-us">grand remplacement</a>,” which holds that white populations and culture are being replaced by non-white, non-Christian people.</p>
<p>But the results of the recent election show something beyond a general growth in support for the far right – something that is happening on both sides of the Atlantic. The French right is succeeding in one key demographic that the <a href="https://morningconsult.com/2021/06/28/global-right-wing-authoritarian-test/">American right has seemingly failed to capture</a>: youth voters.</p>
<p><iframe id="frY0m" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/frY0m/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p><a href="https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/presidentielle-2022/second-tour-profil-des-abstentionnistes-et-sociologie-des-electorats">Analysis of the presidential runoff</a> shows that 49% of 25-34 year olds who voted opted for Le Pen – compared to just over 41% of the general population, and 29% of voters over 70.</p>
<p>This wasn’t always the case. Like in the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2018/03/01/the-generation-gap-in-american-politics/">United States</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/le-vote-jeune-existe-t-il-179871">youth voters in France</a> have historically supported progressive and left-leaning platforms. The Front National – which was established as an <a href="https://www.cairn-int.info/article-E_POUV_157_0005--the-origins-of-the-national-front.htm">explicitly neo-fascist, anti-immigrant party</a>, and whose founder Jean-Marie Le Pen has been <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210901-french-far-right-party-founder-jean-marie-le-pen-faces-new-hate-trial">repeatedly convicted</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121105195546/http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P1-93051559.html">by French courts</a> for inciting racial hatred – was especially far from youth politics.</p>
<p>Indeed, until recently, the French far right’s relation to the under-30 crowd could be summarized in the words of punk rock group Bérurier Noir, which <a href="https://france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/bretagne/il-y-a-38-ans-berurier-noir-chantait-la-jeunesse-emmerde-le-front-national-entretien-avec-loran-beru-2531640.html">famously sang</a> during a 1989 concert that “la jeunesse emmerde le Front National” – “young people piss off the Front National.” </p>
<p>This lyric became a rallying cry during the 2002 elections, as youth voters turned out in overwhelming numbers – both to the ballot box and <a href="https://www.20minutes.fr/diaporama/diaporama-15314-images-20-ans-jeunesse-manifestait-contre-extreme-droite-france">to the streets in protest</a> – when the far right advanced to the runoffs for the first time in the Front National’s history. </p>
<h2>Rebranding the right</h2>
<p>The tide began to change when <a href="https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2011/01/14/01002-20110114ARTFIG00673-marine-le-pen-elue-presidente-du-front-national.php">Marine Le Pen took control</a> of the Front National from her father in 2011. Over the last decade, she has undertaken a conscious process of “<a href="https://www.franceculture.fr/emissions/le-reportage-de-la-redaction/du-fn-au-rn-dix-ans-de-dediabolisation">de-demonizing</a>” the party in an effort to distance itself from its <a href="https://www.liberation.fr/actualites/2017/03/15/le-front-national-face-a-ses-vieux-demons-antisemites_1555982/">antisemitic past</a>. Instead, Le Pen wants to present herself as a <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210703-france-s-far-right-marine-le-pen-under-fire-for-going-mainstream">mainstream candidate</a>.</p>
<p>While, as <a href="https://www.20minutes.fr/elections/presidentielle/2060491-20170502-presidentielle-front-national-vraiment-change">many point out</a>, many of the policies of Rassemblement National <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2022/article/2022/03/31/presidentielle-2022-derriere-la-normalisation-de-marine-le-pen-un-projet-qui-reste-d-extreme-droite_6119942_6059010.html">aren’t substantively different</a> from their far-right roots, the party has tried to appeal to young voters by reframing its stances on issues like <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/2022-presidential-election/article/2022/04/17/le-pen-challenges-macron-s-punitive-ecology-with-her-national-ecology_5980790_16.html">the environment</a> and <a href="https://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/politique/presidentielle-marine-le-pen-et-le-feminisme-un-engagement-de-facade_2169345.html">feminism</a>. Le Pen retreated from her <a href="https://www.linternaute.com/actualite/politique/2626647-marine-le-pen-climatosceptique-l-accusation-de-macron-est-elle-fondee/">previous climate skepticism</a> and embraced a program of so-called <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2022/04/15/marine-le-pen-oppose-son-ecologie-nationale-a-l-ecologie-punitive-d-emmanuel-macron_6122325_823448.html">nationalist ecology</a>, which advocates for energy independence and French-made products. She also positioned herself as a <a href="http://www.slate.fr/story/225591/marine-le-pen-defense-animaux-chats-rassemblement-national-electorat-populaire">pro-animal welfare candidate</a> by calling for stricter regulations on the meatpacking industry, and claimed to “<a href="https://www.nouvelobs.com/tribunes/20220422.OBS57476/marine-le-pen-feministe-defendre-les-femmes-parce-qu-on-est-une-femme-est-un-leurre.html#">defend women</a>” by campaigning against street harassment.</p>
<p>Critics note that her animal welfare proposals amounted to a <a href="https://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/presidentielle-2022-cette-mesure-de-le-pen-qui-signifierait-l-interdiction-du-halal-et-du-casher-7900137659">ban on halal and kosher meat</a> and that her rhetoric on street harassment <a href="https://www.leparisien.fr/politique/marine-le-pen-condamne-le-harcelement-de-rue-produit-de-l-immigration-selon-elle-15-01-2018-7502490.php">placed the blame on immigrant men</a> who, according to her campaign videos, either did not know or did not respect “<a href="https://www.franceinter.fr/societe/violences-faites-aux-femmes-que-proposent-les-candidats-a-l-election-presentielle">French cultural codes</a>.”</p>
<h2>Appealing to youth</h2>
<p>Beyond reframing, though, the Rassemblement National also proposed a number of concrete fiscal policies that target youth voters. In her <a href="https://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/presidentielle-voici-les-propositions-de-marine-le-pen-et-demmanuel-macron-pour-la-jeunesse-4105995">2022 presidential platform</a>, Le Pen promised to eliminate taxes for those under 30, offer financial assistance to student workers and increase housing for students.</p>
<p>Le Pen and the Rassemblement National haven’t convinced everyone. It remains a primarily <a href="https://www.lesechos.fr/politique-societe/politique/europe-derriere-lapparent-recentrage-de-marine-le-pen-un-programme-radical-menant-au-frexit-1400170">anti-immigrant, anti-European nationalist party</a> that often faces accusations of <a href="https://www.franceinter.fr/politique/laissez-les-musulmans-tranquilles-deplacement-chahute-pour-marine-le-pen-dans-le-vaucluse">Islamophobia</a>, <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2022/article/2022/04/08/marine-le-pen-se-defend-de-tout-racisme-dans-son-programme-et-denonce-les-propos-outranciers-d-emmanuel-macron_6121222_6059010.html">racism</a> and <a href="https://www.mediapart.fr/journal/france/190422/derriere-la-dediabolisation-de-marine-le-pen-le-veritable-danger-du-rn-pour-les-lgbti">homophobia</a>. </p>
<p>When Le Pen advanced to the runoffs after the first round of voting on April 10 – <a href="https://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/lecart-entre-jean-luc-melenchon-et-marine-le-pen-se-resserre-fortement-4104913">barely edging out</a> far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon – huge numbers of students turned out in protest across France, declaring that they would vote “<a href="https://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/societe/ni-le-pen-ni-macron-le-slogan-qui-divise-les-etudiants_2172021.html">neither Macron, nor Le Pen</a>.” Many young voters in 2022 abstained from voting altogether – an estimated <a href="https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle/presidentielle-le-taux-dabstention-chez-les-jeunes-restera-eleve-au-second-tour-1400817">30%</a> of those under 35 years old in the first round, climbing to a historic <a href="https://www.publicsenat.fr/article/politique/abstention-des-jeunes-les-politiques-ne-parlent-pas-des-sujets-qui-les-preoccupent">40% in the runoff</a>. </p>
<h2>Declining support of GOP</h2>
<p>In both <a href="https://www.lepoint.fr/presidentielle/pourquoi-les-jeunes-ne-votent-plus-11-04-2022-2471686_3121.php">France</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-so-few-young-americans-vote-132649">U.S.</a>, younger generations express feelings of disinterest in and neglect by mainstream political institutions.</p>
<p>Yet young people in the U.S. continue to show <a href="https://morningconsult.com/2021/06/28/global-right-wing-authoritarian-test/">comparatively low levels of support</a> for right-wing authoritarianism. In <a href="https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2016">2016</a> and <a href="https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2020">2020</a>, voters age 18-29 were 10 points lower in their support for Donald Trump compared to the overall population.</p>
<p>So why aren’t we seeing the French trend in the U.S.? </p>
<p>It’s important to note that the U.S. Republican Party and the French Rassemblement National are not completely analogous, due at least in part to the fact that the U.S. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/04/27/why-are-there-only-two-parties-in-american-politics/">is a two-party system</a>. The Republican Party is the only viable option available to right-wing voters. In France, the Rassemblement National is one of several far-right movements, and is wholly separate from the mainstream conservative Les Républicains party. </p>
<p><iframe id="89090" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/89090/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Still, the GOP and the Rassemblement National are increasingly occupying the same political space. According to the University of Gothenburg’s V-Dem Institute, the Republican Party <a href="https://www.v-dem.net/static/website/img/refs/vparty_briefing.pdf">shifted dramatically</a> towards illiberal rhetoric between 2002 and 2018, putting it in proximity to European far-right parties. Similarly, the GOP and the Rassemblement National received similar scores on Harvard University’s 2019 <a href="https://www.globalpartysurvey.org/">Global Party Survey</a> in terms of opposition to ethnic minority rights and adherence to liberal democratic principles, norms and practices. </p>
<p>The GOP and the RN have also demonstrated a growing, <a href="https://www.liberation.fr/actualites/2019/09/28/la-convention-de-la-droite-de-marion-marechal-le-pen-vire-a-la-caricature-radicale_1754246/">mutual recognition</a> and <a href="https://www.francetvinfo.fr/monde/usa/presidentielle/donald-trump/une-delegation-du-rassemblement-national-aupres-de-l-equipe-trumpaux-etats-unis_4165547.html">exchange of ideas</a> over the last few years.</p>
<p>Indeed, over the last few weeks, far-right groups in France have even begun to echo U.S.-style “<a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/28/election-conspiracy-theories-macron-victory-le-pen">Stop the Steal</a>” rhetoric in response to Emmanuel Macron’s vote shares.</p>
<p>Yet is seems unlikely that far-right segments of the Republican Party can replicate the metamorphosis that allowed Rassemblement National to appeal to youth voters.</p>
<p>Party structures in the U.S. are significantly more decentralized than in France. While Le Pen was able to lead the charge in “softening” her image, it’s not clear who would play that role in an American context for Republicans. Trump remains a <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/cracks-begin-show-republicans-split-over-trump-rnc-meeting-1676470">polarizing figure</a> within the party and <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-at-stake-for-trump-twitter-and-politics-if-the-tweeter-in-chief-returns-from-banishment-182011">seemingly shows no desire</a> to engage in such “de-demonizing.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An elderly woman wears a 'Keep America Great Again' hat and holds an American flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460856/original/file-20220502-22-12c1hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460856/original/file-20220502-22-12c1hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460856/original/file-20220502-22-12c1hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460856/original/file-20220502-22-12c1hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460856/original/file-20220502-22-12c1hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460856/original/file-20220502-22-12c1hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460856/original/file-20220502-22-12c1hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An age-old problem for the GOP?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/trump-supporter-holds-a-flag-and-wears-a-keep-america-great-news-photo/1229340481?adppopup=true">Aimee Dilger/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And the GOP also doesn’t seem to have the political desire to “soften” its image in issues that matter most to youth voters. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/fall-2021-harvard-youth-poll%20https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/fall-2021-harvard-youth-poll">2021 survey</a> by the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics found that young Americans list addressing climate change, health care, education, social justice and income inequality as their top priorities – several of which are <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/05/gop-red-wave-critical-race-theory-526523">difficult to reconcile</a> with the “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/26/republicans-midterms-culture-war-lgbtq-abortion-book-bans">culture war</a>” that parts of the GOP have made a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/04/10/1091543359/15-states-dont-say-gay-anti-transgender-bills">core part of their mandates</a>. </p>
<p>By and large, major Republican officials remain <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/planetpolicy/2021/05/10/republicans-in-congress-are-out-of-step-with-the-american-public-on-climate/">publicly skeptical</a> that climate change exists, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/feb/04/joe-biden-climate-crisis-republican-backlash">vote against</a> Democratic-led climate proposals as too expensive or unnecessary. </p>
<p>The Rassemblement National’s youth-oriented fiscal policies – which often involve direct financial assistance for students, in a distinct break from the party’s “<a href="https://www.lesechos.fr/politique-societe/politique/marine-le-pen-en-operation-seduction-aupres-des-jeunes-1311687">Reaganomics” under Jean-Marie Le Pen</a> in the 1980s – run counter to a GOP that opposes solutions to the <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3469647-republicans-take-aim-at-bidens-authority-on-student-loans/">student debt crisis</a>. </p>
<p>The GOP seems to be <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/12/11/republican-party-gains-temporary-young-voter-strategy-524086">keenly aware</a> of its <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/27/blame-game-erupts-over-trumps-decline-in-youth-vote-440811">declining support among youth voters</a>. Yet Republican efforts seem more geared toward tactics such as <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2021/10/22/partisan-gerrymandering-targets-college-campuses">diluting the vote of districts with college campuses, particularly historically Black colleges and universities</a>, and <a href="https://civilrights.org/edfund/resource/youth-vote/">voter ID laws</a> that would make it more difficult for young people to vote. In contrast, Le Pen <a href="https://www.sudouest.fr/france/1er-mai-marine-le-pen-cible-la-jeunesse-2339713.php">openly courted youth voters</a> and dedicated a large part of her <a href="https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=3204171586469277">final rally</a> before the April 24 runoff to calling on young people to get out and vote. </p>
<p>Part of the GOP approach can likely be ascribed to the fact that young voters are becoming <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/new-census-data-shows-the-nation-is-diversifying-even-faster-than-predicted/">increasingly racially diverse</a> and that young adults of color are <a href="https://time.com/5910291/weve-seen-a-youthquake-how-youth-of-color-backed-joe-biden-in-battleground-states/">an especially strong base</a> for Democratic candidates. But GOP support is dropping among <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/election-week-2020%20">white youths</a>, too.</p>
<p>It took years for Le Pen’s “de-demonization” among youth voters to start paying dividends – and even then, it was insufficient to propel her to electoral victory. The U.S. will, in a few months, undergo its own elections with the 2022 midterms. It’s <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/10/democrats-youth-vote-2022-midterms-john-della-volpe-00024264">far from certain</a> that young people in the U.S. will continue to throw their support behind Democratic candidates. But who they cast their ballot for, and whether they turn out to vote at all, will show just how big the gap is between the Rassemblement National and the GOP in appealing to a younger electorate. </p>
<p>[<em>The Conversation’s Politics + Society editors pick need-to-know stories.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=politics&source=inline-politics-need-to-know">Sign up for Politics Weekly</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181937/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kimberly Tower receives funding from the French-American Fulbright Commission. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Camille Gélix receives funding from Sciences Po Paris (PhD contract). </span></em></p>While Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National has engaged in a decade-long campaign to rehabilitate its image with youth voters, the GOP is moving in the opposite direction.Kimberly Tower, PhD Candidate in International Relations and Comparative Politics, American University School of International ServiceCamille Gélix, PhD candidate, Sciences Po Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1820112022-04-29T12:21:51Z2022-04-29T12:21:51ZWhat’s at stake for Trump, Twitter and politics if the tweeter-in-chief returns from banishment<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460375/original/file-20220428-12-ko7s56.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=76%2C0%2C5596%2C3785&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Could the former tweeter-in-chief make a Twitter comeback?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-looks-at-his-phone-during-a-news-photo/1250536011?adppopup=true"> Alex Wong/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Any speculation about <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/25/musks-twitter-takeover-biden-officials-worry-trump-will-return-to-platform.html">whether Donald Trump will return to Twitter</a> after <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/08/technology/twitter-trump-suspended.html">his permanent suspension</a> in 2021 must begin with two caveats. First, we do not know for sure if, or when, the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/25/business/elon-musk-twitter">presumed new owner of the social media platform, Elon Musk</a>, will lift the ban. Second, Trump <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2022/04/25/trump-wont-return-to-twitter/">has said he will not come back</a>. </p>
<p>“I was disappointed by the way I was treated by Twitter,” <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/25/donald-trump-says-he-wont-return-to-twitter-if-elon-musk-reverses-ban.html">Trump told CNBC on April 25, 2022</a>. “I won’t be going back on Twitter.”</p>
<p>But if Musk, Trump and social media have taught us anything, it is that the half-life of such caveats can be seconds. It is worth at least considering the premise: What’s at stake for Trump, Twitter and politics if he does return.</p>
<p>The pull of Twitter <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/04/25/trump-twitter-elon-musk-reinstatement/">might be irresistible</a> for Trump. Before being kicked off the platform for <a href="https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/company/2020/suspension">what Twitter described as</a> “the risk of further incitement of violence” after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, Trump was a prolific user of the site. I know this firsthand: Between 2017 and 2021, <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-analyzed-all-of-trumps-tweets-to-find-out-what-he-was-really-saying-154532">I collected and analyzed all of his tweets</a> – some 20,301, excluding retweets and links without comment.</p>
<h2>Different platform, same narrative</h2>
<p>Trump was a potent narrator-in-chief on Twitter. Reaching <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/04/25/trump-twitter-elon-musk-reinstatement/">nearly 89 million followers</a> by the time of his suspension was only the beginning. In analyzing his use of Twitter, I found that he built a passionate base of loyalists through a <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-analyzed-all-of-trumps-tweets-to-find-out-what-he-was-really-saying-154532">consistent narrative that reflected their grievances</a>. He <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-shares-tweet-mocking-biden-face-mask-coronavirus-2020-5">attacked his rivals with mockery</a>, sold himself as the solution to all problems and used the day’s news to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/17/business/trump-calls-the-news-media-the-enemy-of-the-people.html">warn of enemies</a> near and far. </p>
<p>This high-emotion, high-stakes approach seemed impossible for journalists to ignore. That meant his message often jumped from Twitter to <a href="https://firstdraftnews.org/long-form-article/cable-news-trumps-tweets/">much larger audiences</a>, usually thanks to media outlets that treated his tweets as news. </p>
<p>Sometimes it was news. He <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/usa_trump-fires-defense-secretary-twitter/6198148.html">hired and fired on Twitter</a> and announced many other major decisions there.</p>
<p>Twitter allowed him <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/694755">to speak directly</a>, without a filter, to his base. At the same time, it was a production plant for a never-ending news cycle. It is hard to imagine the Trump presidency without Twitter. And it might be even harder to imagine that he could <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/22421396/donald-trump-social-media-ban-facebook-twitter-decrease-drop-impact-youtube">command the same level of attention</a> without it. </p>
<p>Would the public see a different Trump if he returned? Trump’s 16 months in the Twitter wilderness suggest that won’t happen. Examining his primary forms of communication post-Twitter – <a href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/news/news-d38qgpn9ym1903">press releases</a> on his website and <a href="https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/donald-trump-delivers-keynote-speech-in-florida-4-21-22-transcript">speeches</a> – the former president has attacked others, defended himself, picked favorites and enumerated grievances just like he did on Twitter.</p>
<p>Trump seems to be the same digital yarn-spinner who sold a large swath of Americans on his basic premise, <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-analyzed-all-of-trumps-tweets-to-find-out-what-he-was-really-saying-154532">which I summarize as</a>: “The establishment is stopping me from protecting you against invaders.”</p>
<p>Analyzing those post-Twitter communications, it is clear that Trump hasn’t changed this narrative. If anything, the story has become even more potent because the establishment and the invaders are now more regularly one and the same in Trump’s rhetoric. A <a href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/news/news-hdmbe2yxku1877">sample press release</a> from April 18 indicates as much: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“… the racist and highly partisan Attorney General of New York State, failed Gubernatorial candidate Letitia James, should focus her efforts on saving the State of New York and ending its reputation as a Crime Capital of the World, instead of spending millions of dollars and utilizing a large portion of her office in going after Donald J. Trump and the Trump Organization (for many years!), who have probably done more for New York than virtually any other person or group …” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>All the elements that characterize Trump’s messaging are there: mocking a supposed persecutor, aggrandizing his own accomplishments and ultimately creating a narrative in which he, and everyone who agrees, is a victim. It taps into a larger narrative that institutions, such as journalists and politicians, have ruined America and harmed its “real” citizens in every way from economics to popular culture. Trump’s presentation of himself as both victim and hero clearly gratifies people who believe that story. </p>
<p>You do not have to look that hard for indicators as to how a Trump return to Twitter could play out – they are seen in the multiple press statements he releases on a daily basis. In four such statements released the day after Musk’s Twitter announcement, Trump railed against the <a href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/news/news-vu55yk5pjk1946">changing of the Cleveland Indians name</a>, <a href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/news/news-256kdr5knb1948">endorsed a pro-Trump candidate</a> for Congress and <a href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/news/news-xnek5yzzjs1949">encouraged supporters to watch a new film</a> made by “incredible Patriots” who were “exposing this great election fraud.” That last statement ended with a rallying call to spread the message that “the 2020 Election was Rigged and Stolen!”</p>
<h2>Blue checks and red lines</h2>
<p>While Trump has stated he will not return to Twitter, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/04/25/trump-twitter-elon-musk-reinstatement/">former advisers</a>, speaking anonymously, are not so sure. That might be because his website where the press releases are posted <a href="https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/donaldjtrump.com">ranked 34,564th for engagement</a> on April 27, according to Alexa. Twitter, that same day, ranked 12th. <a href="https://truthsocial.com/">Truth Social</a>, the social media app founded by Trump, would have to be wildly successful to offset the power of attention and influence that Trump enjoyed on Twitter.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 150,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletters to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-150ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>What would a Musk-owned Twitter do if Trump, allowed back on the platform, continued to say false and misleading things?</p>
<p>Tagging tweets as false or misleading, <a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-11-03/twitter-trump-2020-election-night-tweet-disclaimer">as Trump’s</a> <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/twitter-flags-trump-tweet/story?id=72970494">frequently were</a> toward the end of his time on Twitter, may, for the “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/apr/14/how-free-speech-absolutist-elon-musk-would-transform-twitter">free speech absolutist</a>” that Musk claims to be, cross some perceived line. In any case, it might not be that effective. A <a href="https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2022/02/fact-checks-effectively-counter-covid-misinformation">recent experiment</a> at Cornell University found that tagging false claims on a platform such as Facebook or Twitter “had no effect on survey participants’ perception of its accuracy and actually increased their likelihood of sharing it on social media.” </p>
<p>The same study found that fact checking and “rebutting the false claim with links to additional information” was more successful, making people less likely to believe the false information. And Twitter has <a href="https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/product/2021/introducing-birdwatch-a-community-based-approach-to-misinformation">begun experimenting with a fact-checking</a> feature to correct false information on the platform. Paying attention to what happens to that feature might give some indication as to how much will be tolerated from Trump should he go back on Twitter. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, despite Musk’s <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1517215066550116354">desire to go after Twitter bots</a> – the presence of which are thought to have amplified Trump’s voice and <a href="https://time.com/5286013/twitter-bots-donald-trump-votes/">potentially his share of the vote</a> – <a href="https://blog.twitter.com/common-thread/en/topics/stories/2021/four-truths-about-bots">that may prove a difficult undertaking</a>. </p>
<h2>I’ve changed … really</h2>
<p>How will the media respond should the former president return to Twitter, given his previous success in using the platform <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1461444819893987">to spark media coverage</a>. Research has found that not only was Trump successful in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1461444819893987">boosting coverage of himself through tweeting</a>, he was also able to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19644-6">divert media from reporting on potentially negative topics</a> that could hurt his standing by tweeting about something completely different.</p>
<p>It’s not clear whether the media will again choose to follow and amplify Trump’s tweets with the same frequency.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, changing a platform like Twitter to address some of the concerns associated with a returning Trump is a massive undertaking. And the chances of Trump himself changing seem even less likely. So should it happen, don’t be surprised if a Trump-Twitter reunion looks a lot like the first go-round.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182011/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Humphrey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Analysis of Trump’s post-Twitter communications suggest that the former president has not moderated his messaging style. So what does that mean if he were to go back on Twitter?Michael Humphrey, Assistant Professor of Journalism and Media Communication, Colorado State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1772072022-02-16T20:02:26Z2022-02-16T20:02:26ZUnderstanding Canada’s crisis: Has Trumpism arrived or are people just tired of pandemic restrictions?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446817/original/file-20220216-21-sif0kk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=13%2C13%2C4637%2C3144&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protesters from across Canada came to the nation's capital in Ottawa to demonstrate against vaccine mandates and other measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 175px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/understanding-canada-s-crisis--has-trumpism-arrived-or-are-people-just-tired-of-pandemic-restrictions" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>What’s happening in Canada? International observers may understandably be confused by recent events in a country better known for maple syrup and good behaviour. </p>
<p>For nearly three weeks, large commercial trucks have blocked streets in downtown Ottawa in front of Canada’s Parliament buildings, honking their horns and harassing downtown residents.</p>
<p>Meanwhile in western Canada, another <a href="https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/alberta-border-reopens-as-protesters-leave-blockade-after-18-days">group blocked an important United States border crossing in Alberta</a>. Most recently, protesters blocked a key bridge between the cities of Windsor and Detroit that carries more than <a href="https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/ambass_brdg/ambass_brdge_ovrvw.htm#:%7E:text=The%20Ambassador%20Bridge%20connects%20Windsor,used%20the%20bridge%20in%202000.">a quarter of all Canada-U.S. cross-border trade</a>. </p>
<p>The stated impetus for the protests was a Canadian government requirement that all cross-border truckers be vaccinated against COVID-19. While <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8533779/truckers-convoy-canada-vaccine-mandate/">the vast majority</a> were already vaccinated, the requirement provoked a “convoy” of trucks and dissenters who travelled to Ottawa to make their voices heard. This unlocked a broader populist movement against all COVID-19 measures. </p>
<h2>No tradition of unrest</h2>
<p>Canada does not have much of a tradition of mass political unrest, especially on the political right. The most significant recent political disruptions in Canada have been Indigenous protests, such as a railroad blockade <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/24/world/canada/rail-blockade-protest.html">in February 2020</a> that drew massive national attention. </p>
<p>And Canada has had a generally unified, though not unanimous, approach to the pandemic — <a href="https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/vaccination-coverage/">83 per cent of the eligible population</a> is vaccinated. While some provincial leaders have been ambivalent about restrictions, Canada is far more united in its COVID-19 response than the United States. But the trucker vaccination mandate was the tipping point that unleashed these protests by a small but vocal minority. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man on a bicycle carries a flag that says 'Trump Won.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446818/original/file-20220216-15-wcfsgs.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446818/original/file-20220216-15-wcfsgs.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446818/original/file-20220216-15-wcfsgs.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446818/original/file-20220216-15-wcfsgs.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446818/original/file-20220216-15-wcfsgs.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446818/original/file-20220216-15-wcfsgs.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446818/original/file-20220216-15-wcfsgs.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Donald Trump supporter protests at a rally held in Toronto against vaccine mandates.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For many, this is the unwelcome arrival in force of Trumpism in Canada, and the start of a potential insurrection akin to the January 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol.</p>
<p>There have been <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/4/ottawa-residents-decry-anti-vaccine-trucker-occupation">numerous incidents</a> of harassing behaviour against Ottawa residents. Protesters have <a href="https://cpj.org/2022/02/threats-attacks-and-insults-canadian-reporters-on-covering-vaccine-mandate-protests/">attacked journalists</a>. A significant and perhaps even majority of fundraising for the protests <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/american-donors-to-trucker-convoy-may-be-outnumbering-canadians-ctv-news-analysis-1.5775986">comes from Americans</a>. Confederate flags and swastikas have been spotted in the protest ranks, along with QAnon signs and other conspiracy references. And the protesters are overwhelmingly white, even though more than 22 per cent of Canadians are not.</p>
<h2>Are fears overblown?</h2>
<p>But some insist these fears are overblown, and that the protests are mostly peaceable and simply represent a population tired of pandemic measures. Indeed, the protests at times have a family atmosphere; at one point inflatable children’s bouncy castles were set up amid the Ottawa protest trucks. </p>
<p>These very different impressions have coloured reports and popular discussion of the protests. As journalist Matt Gurney <a href="https://theline.substack.com/p/dispatch-from-the-ottawa-front-hot">reports in his own observations</a> of the Ottawa protesters, people can see what they want to see: “This crowd is mostly friendly. But anyone telling you there’s no dark edge here is either blind, or lying to you.”</p>
<p>So the protests can be framed in different ways — a deep threat to democracy straight from the Trump playbook, or valid political expression. And this framing divides Canadians.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/nearly-three-quarters-of-canadians-want-convoy-protesters-to-go-home-now-survey-1.5781022">One poll</a> finds that 72 per cent of Canadians felt that the protesters should “go home.” But <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8610727/ipsos-poll-trucker-convoy-support-ottawa-canada/">another survey</a> found that 46 per cent of Canadians felt at least some sympathy toward the protesters, even if they did not fully agree with their tactics. </p>
<p>This ambivalence clouded the official response, especially in the initial stages. Ottawa municipal authorities initially co-operated and co-ordinated to a degree with the protesters. The Conservatives, the leading federal opposition party, <a href="https://theconversation.com/replacing-erin-otoole-exposes-the-conservative-partys-ever-deepening-divides-176790">overthrew their leader Erin O’Toole</a> after he was too equivocal in his support of the protests for many members.</p>
<h2>Police force used selectively</h2>
<p>Only as the disruption grew did official opinion turn — and still slowly. The intolerable honking in downtown Ottawa was only stopped by a court injunction <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/zexi-li-ottawa-injunction-trucker-protest-convoy-1.6344503">filed by a 21-year-old woman</a>. The police have used force selectively and avoided violent confrontations. </p>
<p>This hesitancy to crack down contrasts with responses to past disruptive events, such as anti-racism and Indigenous protests. In fact some defenders of the current protest, notably Conservative leadership front-runner <a href="https://twitter.com/ScottMoffatt21/status/1492550644867248129?s=20&t=pcvExs_jRyTGxKaPmElkCQ">Pierre Poilievere</a>, had been quick to demand the end of the 2020 Indigenous blockade. </p>
<p>Only the Windsor border protest brought true national alarm, with its massive potential impact on the Canadian economy. Authorities moved to end the blockade, which was smaller than the Ottawa occupation and cleared after a few days. Other protests, including the earlier border blockade in Alberta, have also been cleared, though they could easily resume.</p>
<p>On Feb. 14, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau invoked the <em><a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/department-justice/news/2022/02/canadas-emergencies-act.html">Emergencies Act</a></em>, a statute passed in 1988 but never previously used, that allows governments to override normal restrictions. Exactly how the act will be used remains to be seen. And some argue it is unnecessary, and the only thing really missing is political leadership. </p>
<h2>Politicians haven’t performed well</h2>
<p>Indeed, Canadian politicians have not performed well here. Both Trudeau and his Conservative opponents have used the protests opportunistically, trying to pin blame on each other rather than attempting a united front. Provincial leaders like Ontario Premier Doug Ford, whose jurisdiction includes the city of Ottawa, have stayed out of the limelight as much as possible. And municipal authorities, especially in Ottawa, are <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-council-special-meeting-motions-convoy-1.6342350">in disarray and/or overwhelmed</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People pose beside a semi-truck adorned with the words F*CK TRUDEAU" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446820/original/file-20220216-23-cal0b1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446820/original/file-20220216-23-cal0b1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446820/original/file-20220216-23-cal0b1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446820/original/file-20220216-23-cal0b1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446820/original/file-20220216-23-cal0b1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446820/original/file-20220216-23-cal0b1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446820/original/file-20220216-23-cal0b1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been the focal point of the protesters who have come to Ottawa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On the other hand, there is no simple solution here, at least one without a high risk of violence that will likely spur further disruptions. In Ottawa the police have made efforts to curb protestor activity. But there is little appetite for stronger confrontation, and on Feb. 15 the Ottawa police chief resigned after heavy criticism.</p>
<p>The Ottawa protest will likely dissipate in time. But the great fear is that this is an irreparable tear in the Canadian political fabric that brings the country closer to the toxic polarization seen in the U.S.</p>
<p>Extremism can breed extremism, and the more benign interpretations of the protest provide a cover for the undeniably fanatical elements. As in the United States where moderate Republicans have been decimated, the most profound immediate effect of the crisis is the moderate wing of the Conservative Party of Canada, as seen in O'Toole’s demise.</p>
<p>Ironically, vaccine and social distancing requirements are on the wane in Canada independent of the “freedom convoy.” The issues that sparked the protests may soon be gone. But the protests are ultimately about something much deeper than vaccines. The struggle is over conceptions of democracy in Canada.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177207/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Malloy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Canada’s international reputation as a relatively peaceful country is at odds with the noisy protests by people opposed to measures aimed at preventing COVID-19.Jonathan Malloy, Professor of Political Science, Carleton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1769642022-02-11T13:34:17Z2022-02-11T13:34:17ZWhether up in smoke or down the toilet, missing presidential records are a serious concern<p>We may never get to the bottom of whether Donald Trump <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-documents-flushed-down-toilet-presidential-records-act-2022-2">flushed documents down a White House toilet</a>. “Fake story,” says the former president. “100% accurate,” retorts a reporter.</p>
<p>But even without having to unclog plumbing in search of missing papers, national archivists have their work cut out trying to plug potential gaps in the historical record of the 45th president.</p>
<p>On Feb. 7, 2022, it emerged that 15 boxes of documents and other items that should have been handed over to the National Archives and Record Administration had been found at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence.</p>
<p>Trump says <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-documents-flushed-down-toilet-presidential-records-act-2022-2">he was told that he was under “no obligation</a>” to hand over the documents, but the law suggests he may be mistaken here.</p>
<p>Specifically, <a href="http://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?path=/prelim@title18/part1/chapter101&edition=prelim">Section 2071 of Title 18 of U.S. Code states</a> that anyone who “willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, or destroys” records or documents filed in any public office can be fined or imprisoned for up to three years.</p>
<p>It’s deemed a more serious crime if documents are classified, <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCODE-2009-title18/pdf/USCODE-2009-title18-partI-chap93-sec1924.pdf">in which case</a> a penalty of up to five years imprisonment can apply.</p>
<p>In both cases, those held responsible are then disqualified from holding any office in the United States.</p>
<p>These requirements matter not only for posterity and the public record. They can also help build a complete picture of events that have lasting consequences. Among the records reportedly incomplete or missing from Trump’s tenure in the White House are <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/10/politics/trump-white-house-records/index.html">phone logs from Jan. 6, 2021</a>.</p>
<h2>Saving the records</h2>
<p>In 1957, the National Historical Publications Commission, a part of the National Archives that works to “preserve, publish, and encourage the use of documentary sources … <a href="https://www.archives.gov/nhprc/about">relating to the history of the United States</a>,” <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/help/ppp">recommended</a> developing a uniform system so all materials from presidencies could be archived. They did this to literally save presidential records from the flames: <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/harding/essays/harding-1921-firstlady">President Warren G. Harding’s wife claimed to have burned all his records</a>, and <a href="https://www.historynet.com/in-his-fathers-shadow.htm#:%7E:text=An%20intensely%20private%20man%2C%20Robert,%2C%E2%80%9D%20as%20he%20called%20it.">Robert Todd Lincoln burned all his father’s war correspondence</a>. Other presidents have had their records intentionally destroyed, such as Chester A. Arthur and Martin Van Buren.</p>
<p>So the government collects and retains all presidential communications, including executive orders, announcements, nominations, statements and speeches. This includes any public verbal communications by presidents, which are also placed as public documents in <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/app/collection/CPD/">the Compilation of Presidential Documents</a>. </p>
<p>These are part of the official record of any administration, published by the Office of the Federal Register, National Archives and Records Administration on a weekly basis by the White House press secretary. In most presidencies, the document or transcript is available a few days to a couple of weeks after any event. At the conclusion of an administration, these documents form the basis for the formal collections of the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/publications/presidential-papers.html">Public Papers of the President</a>. </p>
<p>As a political scientist, I’m interested in <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-78136-5">where presidents give speeches</a>. What can be learned about their priorities based on their choice of location? What do these patterns tell us about administrations? </p>
<p>For example, <a href="http://ndl.ethernet.edu.et/bitstream/123456789/67962/1/398.pdf.pdf">Barack Obama primarily focused on large media markets</a> in states that strongly supported him. <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7978826/">Trump went to supportive places as well</a>, including <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?474840-1/president-trump-delivers-remarks-mankato-minnesota">small media markets like Mankato, Minnesota</a>, where the airport was not even large enough to fly into with the regular Air Force One.</p>
<p>Presidential speeches often give a very different perception of an administration. Without all the pageantry, you can quickly get to the point of the visit in the text.</p>
<p>In speeches that President George W. Bush gave in the 2002 midterm election period, he made the same joke more than 50 times as his icebreaker. He would <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/WCPD-2002-10-28/html/WCPD-2002-10-28-Pg1827.htm">apologize that audiences had drawn the “short straw” and gotten him instead of Laura</a>. His commitment to that joke gave a glimpse of his desire to try to connect to an audience through self-deprecating humor. </p>
<p>I found something odd when I began to pull items from the compilation and organize my own database of locations for the Trump administration. I was born and raised in Louisville, Kentucky, and I pay attention to my home state. I knew that on <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-59hA3lyRrc">March 20, 2017, Trump held a public rally in Louisville</a>, where in a meandering speech he touched on everything from Kentucky coal miners to the Supreme Court, China, building a border wall and “illegal immigrants” who were, he said, robbing and murdering Americans.</p>
<p>But when I looked in the compilation in mid-2017, I couldn’t find the Louisville speech. No problem, I thought. They are just running behind, and they will put it in later. </p>
<p>A year later, I noticed the Louisville speech was still not there. Furthermore, other speeches were missing. These were not just any speeches, but Trump rallies. By my count, 147 separate transcripts for public speaking events are missing from Trump’s official presidential speech records. That’s just over 8% of his presidential speeches.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394607/original/file-20210412-13-4d9ix9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A portrait of President Chester A. Arthur, with long gray whiskers." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394607/original/file-20210412-13-4d9ix9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394607/original/file-20210412-13-4d9ix9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=724&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394607/original/file-20210412-13-4d9ix9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=724&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394607/original/file-20210412-13-4d9ix9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=724&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394607/original/file-20210412-13-4d9ix9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=910&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394607/original/file-20210412-13-4d9ix9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=910&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394607/original/file-20210412-13-4d9ix9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=910&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Chester A. Arthur, whose family burned many of his presidential records. This was not uncommon for presidents’ families to do.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://npg.si.edu/object/npg_NPG.67.62">Ole Peter Hansen Balling, artist; National Portrait Gallery, Smithsonian Institution</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s in, what’s out</h2>
<p><a href="https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?path=/prelim@title44/chapter22&edition=prelim">The Presidential Records Act</a>, first passed in 1978, says administrations have to retain “any documentary materials relating to the political activities of the President or members of the President’s staff, but only if such activities relate to or have a direct effect upon the carrying out of constitutional, statutory, or other official or ceremonial duties of the President.” </p>
<p>An administration is allowed to exclude personal records that are purely private or don’t have an effect on the duties of a president. All public events are included, such as quick comments on the South Lawn, short exchanges with reporters and all public speeches, radio addresses and even public telephone calls to astronauts on the space shuttles. </p>
<p>But Trump’s large public rallies, and what he said at them, have so far been omitted from the public record his administration supplied to the Compilation of Presidential Documents. And while historians and the public could get transcripts off of publicly available videos, that still does not address the need to have a complete official collection of these statements.</p>
<p><a href="https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?path=/prelim@title44/chapter22&edition=prelim">Federal law says</a> that presidents are allowed to exclude “materials directly relating to the election of a particular individual or individuals to Federal, State, or local office, which have no relation to or direct effect upon the carrying out of … duties of the President.” </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.archives.gov/about/laws/presidential-records.html">law has been interpreted</a> to mean <a href="https://www.justice.gov/oip/blog/foia-update-oip-guidance-agency-records-vs-personal-records">an administration could omit</a> notes, emails or other documentation from what it sends to the compilation. While many presidents do not provide transcripts for speeches at private party fundraising events, rallies covered by America’s press corps likely do not fall under these exclusions. </p>
<h2>Why does it matter?</h2>
<p>Government documents are among the primary records of who we are as a people.</p>
<p>These primary records speak to Americans directly; they are not what others tell us or interpret to us about our history. The government compiles and preserves these records to give an accurate accounting of the leaders the country has chosen. They provide a shared history in full instead of an excerpt or quick clip shown in a news report. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Since 1981, the public has legally owned all presidential records. As soon as a president leaves office, <a href="https://www.archives.gov/presidential-libraries/laws/1978-act.html#:%7E:text=Places%20the%20responsibility%20for%20the,records%20separately%20from%20Presidential%20records.">the National Archivist gets legal custody of all of them</a> Presidents are generally on their honor to be good stewards of history. There is no real penalty for noncompliance. </p>
<p>But these public documents, which I work with constantly, have so far always been available to the public – and they’ve been available quickly. Internal presidential documents like memos or email have a rigorous archival procedure that lasts years before they are even accessible. I have a record of every presidential speech from 1945 to 2021 – every president since Bill Clinton has <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/app/collection/cpd">all their public speeches available online</a>. Until Trump, there have been no missing public speeches in the permanent collection. By removing these speeches, Trump is creating a false perception of his presidency, making it look more serious and traditional. </p>
<p>And by the way: That 2017 Louisville speech is still missing from the records in 2022. I’m hoping it might be found among those 15 boxes.</p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This is an updated version of <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-defying-custom-hasnt-given-the-national-archives-records-of-his-speeches-at-political-rallies-157480">an article originally published</a> on April 14, 2021.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176964/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shannon Bow O'Brien does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>All presidents must deposit transcriptions of their public statements with the National Archives. But in the case of Donald Trump, there’s something missing.Shannon Bow O'Brien, Associate Professor of Instruction, The University of Texas at Austin College of Liberal ArtsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1758982022-01-31T18:09:40Z2022-01-31T18:09:40ZCanada’s ‘freedom convoy’ exposes political missteps — and Donald Trump’s ominous legacy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443503/original/file-20220131-117572-d341an.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4584%2C3434&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People hold signs during a singing of O Canada during a rally against COVID-19 restrictions on Parliament Hill.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 175px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/canada-s--freedom-convoy--exposes-political-missteps-—-and-donald-trump-s-ominous-legacy" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The Canadian truckers’ “freedom convoy” to Ottawa has the markings of another protest at a nation’s capital. </p>
<p>On Jan. 6, 2021, people from across the United States staged a protest in Washington, D.C., that quickly turned into a violent siege of the Capitol building. They were angry over what they falsely viewed as an election “stolen” from outgoing president Donald Trump.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443492/original/file-20220131-15-16y1pw1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A statue of Terry Fox with a sign that says mandate freedom." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443492/original/file-20220131-15-16y1pw1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443492/original/file-20220131-15-16y1pw1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=609&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443492/original/file-20220131-15-16y1pw1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=609&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443492/original/file-20220131-15-16y1pw1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=609&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443492/original/file-20220131-15-16y1pw1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=765&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443492/original/file-20220131-15-16y1pw1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=765&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443492/original/file-20220131-15-16y1pw1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=765&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A statue of Terry Fox is seen during the truck convoy protest against measures taken by authorities to curb the spread of COVID-19 and vaccine mandates.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The Canadian protesters seem to be emulating some of the behaviour of their U.S. counterparts, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-ottawa-police-investigate-desecration-of-monuments-by-trucker-convoy/">desecrating public monuments</a> and <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8581568/ottawa-shepherds-of-good-hope-truck-convoy-protesters/">bullying homeless shelters into feeding them</a>. The Rideau <a href="https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/downtown-ottawa-mall-remains-closed-sunday-due-to-convoy-protest-1.5760081">shopping centre has been forced to close due to protesters refusing to wear face masks inside</a>.</p>
<p>Some have flown the Confederate flag and the swastika, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/08/man-who-carried-confederate-flag-to-capitol-during-riot-indicted-.html">symbols of hate</a> and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/26/politics/robert-packer-camp-auschwitz-sweatshirt-us-capitol-riot/index.html">white supremacy</a> that were also seen at the U.S. raid of the Capitol. <a href="https://twitter.com/frankgunnphoto/status/1486793410942062594?s=20&t=6ZchNjKylVX9MKoxvne_Bw">Journalists have been shoved, spit on and accosted along the convoy’s path</a>.</p>
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<p>Trump has nothing directly to do with Canadian truck drivers and their supporters who oppose government vaccine mandates. However his angry rhetoric of being victimized by an untrustworthy elite is similar to the sentiments fuelling the grievances of Canada’s protesters. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/donald-trump-voices-support-for-truckers-convoy-protest-in-ottawa-1.5760331">Trump even endorsed the convoy</a> participants as “doing more to defend American freedom than our own leaders.” </p>
<h2>Responses from Canadian leaders</h2>
<p>Canadian leaders, on the other hand, took diametrically different positions as the convoy made its weeklong journey from British Columbia to Ottawa.</p>
<p>Prime Minister <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8539610/trucker-convoy-covid-vaccine-mandates-ottawa/">Justin Trudeau labelled the convoy</a> a “small fringe minority of people … holding unacceptable views [that] do not represent the views of Canadians.” For the most part, he remained quiet as the convoy travelled across the country, and was moved to a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/truck-convoy-protest-some-key-players-1.6332312">safe, undisclosed location</a> as the protesters arrived in Ottawa. </p>
<p>Erin O'Toole, <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2022/02/02/erin-otoole-makes-final-appeal-to-keep-his-job.html">former Conservative Party leader who was ousted from his job soon after the convoy arrived in Ottawa</a>, saw the protest as an opportunity to burnish his credentials as a leader who listens and cares. He apparently wants to tap into the anger that the protesters have over vaccine mandates.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443494/original/file-20220131-116292-wlye32.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443494/original/file-20220131-116292-wlye32.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443494/original/file-20220131-116292-wlye32.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443494/original/file-20220131-116292-wlye32.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443494/original/file-20220131-116292-wlye32.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443494/original/file-20220131-116292-wlye32.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443494/original/file-20220131-116292-wlye32.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443494/original/file-20220131-116292-wlye32.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole speaks during a media availability on Parliament Hill in Ottawa the day before the trucker convoy descended upon the city.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>O'Toole seemingly believes that resentment over pandemic lockdown measures — most of them implemented at the provincial level and now in place for almost two years — is wider and deeper than generally realized. </p>
<p>Tapping into a sentiment that extends beyond the few thousand protesters, or even beyond the unvaccinated, allows him to differentiate himself from the Liberals. Tellingly, he referred to truckers as “our neighbours, our family, and most importantly, they are <a href="https://twitter.com/erinotoole/status/1487210614124691457?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet.">our fellow Canadians</a>.” </p>
<p>By meeting with some of the truckers, O'Toole is now associated with the convoy and its messages. Given the fact that <a href="https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/vaccination-coverage/">the vast majority of Canadians are vaccinated</a> and <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8532791/covid-unvaccinated-restrictions-tax-poll/">are largely in favour of vaccine mandates</a>, this is a gamble for a politician seeking to become the next prime minister. </p>
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<p>There will undoubtedly be attack ads from opposition parties in the next election that feature footage of Conservatives defending and supporting the convoy protesters spliced with images of the defaced <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2022/01/29/officials-decry-desecration-of-monuments-during-ottawa-protest.html">Terry Fox statue, the War Memorial and the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier</a>. </p>
<p>Provincial premiers of all stripes, in the meantime, have mostly been silent throughout the convoy, happy to leave the spotlight on federal politicians. The premiers likely have no interest in reminding citizens that most vaccine and mask mandates, school closures and lockdowns are the work of provincial governments, not Ottawa.</p>
<h2>Liberal missteps</h2>
<p>For Trudeau and Liberals, the trucker convoy is a warning sign they will need to heed. The vaccination mandate for truckers was bungled in its implementation and communication strategy. Due to <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/phac-truck-vaccine-mandate-communications-error-1.6322988">bureaucratic missteps</a>, it seemed that at the last minute, the federal government would not implement the vaccine mandate. </p>
<p>This sent observers the message that the government was divided on how to proceed, especially given the <a href="https://ontruck.org/reuters-canadian-u-s-truckers-warn-vaccine-mandates-will-disrupt-supply-chains/">warnings from the trucking industry of supply chain disruptions.</a></p>
<p>Before the truckers’ mandate took effect, the Liberals might have put a task force in place to monitor its impact on the industry and individual truckers. </p>
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<img alt="A sign reads Assassin Trudeau amid a group of protesters with Parliament buildings in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443496/original/file-20220131-25-tdygyo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443496/original/file-20220131-25-tdygyo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443496/original/file-20220131-25-tdygyo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443496/original/file-20220131-25-tdygyo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443496/original/file-20220131-25-tdygyo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443496/original/file-20220131-25-tdygyo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443496/original/file-20220131-25-tdygyo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Trudeau was a big target of the protesters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span>
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<p>Alternatively, Ottawa could have provided aid to allow truckers and trucking companies to shift unvaccinated drivers from international to national routes. It also could have spent more time explaining the mandate, including its temporary nature and that the <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/us-require-truckers-crossing-us-224326548.html.">United States has the same rules</a> requiring truck drivers crossing the Canada-U.S. border to be fully vaccinated. </p>
<p>Instead, the Liberals assumed that the mandates would not be controversial especially given the high vaccination rate of the population as a whole. The Liberals also presumed that with nearly 90 per cent of truck drivers already vaccinated, any impact or opposition would be minimal. </p>
<h2>Portrayed as heartless</h2>
<p>The peril for Trudeau is that this rally might set a precedent for similar ones in the future. If so, his government will increasingly be portrayed as heartless by his political opponents. In fact, O'Toole is seeking to craft the perception of an <a href="https://twitter.com/erinotoole/status/1487463189851910147?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet">uncaring and out-of-touch prime minister</a>.</p>
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<p>The legacy of the freedom rally will not be clear for some time. However, Canadians can be relieved that, unlike many protests south of the border — including the raid on the Capitol a year ago — <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8582480/ottawa-trucker-protest-peaceful/">widespread violence did not erupt at the rally</a>, although police are investigating threatening behaviour toward officers, city workers and other individuals.</p>
<p>That could be testament to Canada’s political culture that favours co-operation, tradition and respect for authority, in contrast to the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/trump-his-voters-are-drawn-together-shared-sense-defiance-ncna823266">strong distrust of the state</a> that runs deep in American politics. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, when the protesters head home, governments in Ottawa and the provinces will be keen to avoid similar events. Experiences with angry public demonstrations in both Washington, D.C., and around the world show protest movements are unpredictable, volatile and can have lasting consequences.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175898/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Klassen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When the ‘freedom convoy’ heads home, governments will be keen to avoid similar events. Angry protest movements are volatile and have lasting consequences, as the rise of Trumpism shows.Thomas Klassen, Professor, School of Public Policy and Administration, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1753812022-01-20T19:16:29Z2022-01-20T19:16:29ZSupreme Court rejects Trump’s blocking of Jan. 6 docs: 3 key takeaways from ruling<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441785/original/file-20220120-17-1taf4y0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C2842%2C2021&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Some things can't be hidden from public view.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-waves-as-he-returns-to-the-white-news-photo/1177283798?adppopup=true">Mark Wilson/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a legal blow for Donald Trump, the <a href="https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/supreme-court-rejects-trump-clears-disclosure-of-jan-6-papers">Supreme Court has cleared the way</a> for presidential records dating from his time in office to be turned over to a House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack.</p>
<p>Trump, through his lawyers, had sought to shield over <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-19/supreme-court-rejects-trump-clears-disclosure-of-jan-6-papers">800 pages of information</a> from the panel, citing <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2021/11/10/what-is-executive-privilege">executive privilege</a>, which allows for a president to withhold certain information from public release. But in <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/21a272_9p6b.pdf">a 8-1 ruling</a>, the Supreme Court on Jan. 19, 2022, rejected a request to block the documents from being handed to Congress.</p>
<p>The ruling has immediate – and potentially longer-term – consequences. Here are three key takeaways from the court’s decision. </p>
<h2>1. Executive power has its limits</h2>
<p>Trump has championed an expansive view of executive power. During his presidency, he refused to provide information to Congress by <a href="https://theconversation.com/courts-have-avoided-refereeing-between-congress-and-the-president-but-trump-may-force-them-to-wade-in-128269">asserting executive privilege</a> over a dozen times, issued executive orders in the face of congressional opposition, and even <a href="https://casetext.com/case/trump-v-mazars-usa-llp-2">sued his personal and business accountants</a> to prevent them from handing personal tax information over to Congress, which had subpoenaed those records.</p>
<p>Unlike previous presidents, Trump refused to negotiate with Congress over disclosing White House records. Instead, he took his fights with Congress to the courts.</p>
<p>Out of office, Trump continues to resist efforts to disclose information about his presidency. He has <a href="https://theconversation.com/steve-bannon-faces-criminal-charges-over-jan-6-panel-snub-setting-up-a-showdown-over-executive-privilege-169996">urged several former White House staffers</a> and advisers to claim executive privilege in response to subpoenas for information related to the Jan. 6 Capitol attack. The Congress has even had to take the extraordinary step of referring former Trump adviser <a href="https://theconversation.com/steve-bannon-faces-criminal-charges-over-jan-6-panel-snub-setting-up-a-showdown-over-executive-privilege-169996">Steve Bannon</a> and former <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-expected-vote-mark-meadows-criminal-contempt-referral-n1285908">White House Chief of Staff</a> Mark Meadows to the Department of Justice for criminal contempt proceedings because they have refused to comply with subpoenas. </p>
<p>Federal courts <a href="https://theconversation.com/courts-have-avoided-refereeing-between-congress-and-the-president-but-trump-may-force-them-to-wade-in-128269">do not like to wade into disputes</a> between the executive branch and Congress, but Trump pushed them to do so.</p>
<p>In its short opinion, the Supreme Court rejected Trump’s expansive view of executive power. The court denied Trump’s request to prevent the National Archives from releasing documents to the committee, stating that his case to shield the records could not prevail “<a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/21a272_9p6b.pdf">under any of the tests</a> [he] advocated.” </p>
<p>The court added, “Because the court of appeals concluded that President Trump’s claims would have failed even if he were the incumbent, his status as a former president necessarily made no difference in the decision.”</p>
<p>It isn’t the first time that the Supreme Court has had to wade into the issue of Trump’s attempted use of executive power to withhold information from Congress.</p>
<p>In a 2020 ruling in <a href="https://casetext.com/case/trump-v-mazars-usa-llp-2">Trump v. Mazars</a> – in which Trump sued his accountants in a bid to prevent their release of tax documents to Congress – the court rejected Trump’s claim of absolute immunity from congressional process and crafted a new analysis to determine when Congress can obtain a president’s personal records.</p>
<p>Similarly, in the latest ruling the Supreme Court appears to be pushing back against Trump’s expansive view of executive power in favor of a more balanced approach.</p>
<h2>2. Unanswered question over ex-presidents and executive privilege</h2>
<p>Although the justices questioned Trump’s expansive view on executive power, the Supreme Court ruling still preserves the ability of a former president to raise such a claim.</p>
<p>This is consistent with <a href="https://theconversation.com/house-committee-investigating-capitol-insurrection-has-a-lot-of-power-but-its-unclear-it-can-force-trump-to-testify-165294">a landmark 1977 decision</a> in which the Supreme Court held that former President Richard Nixon could claim executive privilege in challenging a federal law known as “The Presidential Recordings and Materials Preservation Act.”</p>
<p>That <a href="https://www.archives.gov/presidential-libraries/laws/1974-act.html">law ensured that government agencies</a> – and, ultimately, the public – could obtain certain documents and tape recordings made during Nixon’s presidency.</p>
<p>The court allowed Nixon to make the executive privilege claim, but it ultimately ruled against him. In upholding the law, the Supreme Court noted that the lack of support for Nixon’s claim by other presidents weakened his case for executive privilege. </p>
<p>The court, in its latest ruling, did not consider the questions of whether and under what conditions a former president may be able to prevail on a claim of executive privilege.</p>
<h2>3. The importance of congressional oversight</h2>
<p>The Supreme Court’s ruling also reiterated the importance of congressional oversight, and the need for the American people to learn the truth about what happened on Jan. 6, 2021.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 140,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletters to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-140ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>By paving the way for the House Select Committee to access hundreds of documents – including visitor and call logs, emails, draft speeches and handwritten notes – the court has seemingly recognized that a healthy, stable democracy depends on people knowing what their government is doing so they can hold elected officials accountable.</p>
<p>As such, the Supreme Court has indicated a willingness to protect a constitutional system that can ensure transparency and accountability by legitimizing legislative branch oversight over the executive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175381/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kirsten Matoy Carlson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Justices have cleared the way for hundreds of Trump administration documents to be handed to a panel investigating the Jan. 6 attack. A law scholar explains what that means for executive privilege.Kirsten Matoy Carlson, Associate Professor of Law and Adjunct Associate Professor of Political Science, Wayne State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1749582022-01-14T13:35:18Z2022-01-14T13:35:18ZSeditious conspiracy charge against Oath Keepers founder and others in Jan. 6 riot faces First Amendment hurdle<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440798/original/file-20220113-23-1ofy1xr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4630%2C2883&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Stewart Rhodes faces up to 20 years behind bars if convicted of seditious conspiracy.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CapitolRiotSedition/981d3aaf03ef42378ced4ea0c2b9252f/photo?Query=Stewart%20Rhodes&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=22&currentItemNo=1">AP Photo/Susan Walsh</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/leader-oath-keepers-and-10-other-individuals-indicted-federal-court-seditious-conspiracy-and">seditious conspiracy charges filed</a> against Stewart Rhodes, founder of the Oath Keepers militia, along with 10 other defendants, opens a new and significant chapter in the events of Jan. 6, 2021. </p>
<p>Many observers have <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2022/01/january-6-sedition-charges-trump-white-supremacy-capitol/">noted the absence</a> of “seditious conspiracy” charges in connection with prosecutions of those who took part in the Capitol riot. Participants in the riot have been <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/04/jan-6-insurrection-sentencing-tracker-526091">charged with minor crimes</a> such as trespassing or other lower-level offenses. <a href="https://www.justice.gov/usao-dc/capitol-breach-cases">Others have been charged with more serious offenses</a>, such as obstructing a congressional proceeding or bringing a weapon inside the U.S. Capitol. </p>
<p>But the seditious conspiracy charges <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/leader-oath-keepers-and-10-other-individuals-indicted-federal-court-seditious-conspiracy-and">announced on Jan. 13, 2022 by the Department of Justice</a> raise the stakes and political temperature of the Jan. 6 investigation. As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=3xAnT2QAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">First Amendment scholar</a>, I believe they may also give rise to serious concerns about the rights of others protesting government actions down the road. </p>
<h2>Prosecutions are rare</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/01/13/what-is-sedition/">crime of seditious conspiracy</a> involves joining with others to overthrow the government of the United States.</p>
<p>Under <a href="https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?path=/prelim@title18/part1/chapter115&edition=prelim">federal law</a>, persons are guilty of seditious conspiracy if they conspire “to overthrow, put down, or destroy the government” by force. That is the central or core offense. </p>
<p>However, the <a href="https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?path=/prelim@title18/part1/chapter115&edition=prelim">federal seditious conspiracy law</a> also prohibits using force to “prevent, hinder, or delay the execution of any law of the United States” and using force to “seize, take, or possess any property of the United States.” The crime carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison, fines, or both.</p>
<p>Seditious conspiracy prosecutions are rare in the U.S., but not unheard of. Charges have been successfully <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/when-extremists-stormed-capitol-and-got-convicted-seditious-conspiracy">brought against Puerto Rican nationalists</a> who stormed the Capitol in March of 1954 <a href="https://apnews.com/article/riots-conspiracy-9d22bdd4e2d4d786531ebe0fb8095de4">and against Islamic militants</a> who plotted to bomb several New York landmarks in the early 1990s. However, juries have also acquitted members of a neo-Nazi group charged with seditious conspiracy for conspiring to overthrow the U.S. government and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/604c50e36bd020ac70be35445b12d059">assassinate federal officials</a>.</p>
<p>Prosecutors may be reluctant to charge seditious conspiracy for several reasons. Conspiracy charges, which entail planning between two or more people to commit a crime, take lots of time and resources to develop and prosecute. Proving the elements of seditious conspiracy can be factually and legally difficult. Entering a restricted area or obstructing a congressional proceeding are far easier crimes to prove than plots to overthrow or hinder the U.S. government. </p>
<p>Prosecutors may also be reluctant to charge seditious conspiracy because the charges may appear to be politically motivated. </p>
<h2>From speech to action</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/interactive-constitution/amendment/amendment-i">First Amendment</a> also may pose a significant hurdle for prosecutors trying to prove seditious conspiracy. </p>
<p>Although it does not protect speech that incites imminent lawless action, the First Amendment does protect speech that advocates overthrowing government in more abstract terms. </p>
<p>So anti-government sentiment or general calls to “action” against purported “tyrants” – or statements of that nature – don’t rise to the level of a seditious conspiracy. For prosecutors to convict those charged with seditious conspiracy, they must prove there were specific plans to hinder the execution of the law or seize government property.</p>
<p>For example, a 2010 seditious conspiracy charge <a href="https://apnews.com/article/riots-conspiracy-9d22bdd4e2d4d786531ebe0fb8095de4">brought against members of the Hutaree militia</a>, which the government alleged planned to wage war against the government, was dismissed because the prosecution’s case rested substantially on hateful and offensive speech by members of the Christian extremist group that was protected by the First Amendment. The evidence did not demonstrate a plot to overthrow the government. </p>
<p>In the case of the Oath Keepers, the government will have to overcome similar First Amendment concerns. </p>
<p>In the case of Rhodes and his alleged co-conspirators, prosecutors may secure a conviction if they can prove, as is <a href="https://www.justice.gov/usao-dc/press-release/file/1462346/download">alleged in the indictment</a>, that the militia moved from protected speech to planning specific actions – including “to stop the lawful transfer of presidential power” – that are not protected by the First Amendment.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/leader-oath-keepers-and-10-other-individuals-indicted-federal-court-seditious-conspiracy-and">press release accompanying the conspiracy charges</a>, the Department of Justice alleged specific actions by the defendants, including planning to travel to Washington, and bringing weapons to the area in support of the operation. </p>
<p>If any case fits the seditious conspiracy crime, perhaps this is it. </p>
<p>[<em>More than 140,000 readers get one of The Conversation’s informative newsletters.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-140K">Join the list today</a>.]</p>
<h2>Potential for abuse</h2>
<p>However, use of the seditious conspiracy law in Rhodes’s case may set a bad precedent as far as future protesters and dissidents are concerned. I see a danger that it could be used to support seditious conspiracy charges against other, potentially nonviolent, groups. </p>
<p>The words of the seditious conspiracy law – using force to “prevent, hinder, or delay the execution of any law of the United States” or to “seize, take, or possess any property of the United States” – may be broad enough to sweep in certain kinds of civil disobedience, disruptive protests at the Capitol and elsewhere, and plans to resist mass arrests.</p>
<p>Such concerns may be yet another reason prosecutors had seemingly been reluctant to rely on seditious conspiracy charges for the Jan. 6 defendants. </p>
<p>History demonstrates how broadly worded sedition laws can suppress protest and dissent. During the World War I, <a href="https://www.history.com/news/sedition-espionage-acts-woodrow-wilson-wwi">pacifists and dissidents were frequently charged</a> with sedition and seditious conspiracy based on their political advocacy and criticism of government. </p>
<p>The First Amendment, which broadly protects dissent, would not permit such prosecutions today. Modern interpretations of freedom of speech <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/brandenburg_test">impose stringent requirements</a> in prosecutions for “inciting” violence. However, a successful prosecution for seditious conspiracy in the Rhodes case may create a precedent for going after demonstrators who commit ordinary crimes, such as damaging a police car or occupying a federal building, or who engage in other acts of civil disobedience.</p>
<p>This danger is not entirely speculative. In 2020, the Trump Justice Department <a href="https://apnews.com/article/state-courts-violent-crime-arson-violence-crime-cbca8672a70f9f170a086a7a252a751e">considered charging Black Lives Matter protesters with seditious conspiracy</a> in connection with demonstrations in Washington, D.C., and Portland. The Justice Department ultimately decided not to go down that road. To be sure, factual and other distinctions can be made between those protests and the storming of the Capitol. But in the hands of a zealous prosecutor, the potential for abuse is clear.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/174958/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Zick does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Stewart Rhodes of the Oath Keepers, has been charged with seditious conspiracy over the attempted insurrection. A constitutional law scholar outlines why that may set a bad precedent.Timothy Zick, Professor of Law, William & Mary Law SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.