tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/unionists-8455/articlesUnionists – The Conversation2023-08-10T15:41:29Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2113072023-08-10T15:41:29Z2023-08-10T15:41:29ZThe personal details of Northern Ireland’s main police force have been leaked – three reasons why that’s incredibly dangerous<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542149/original/file-20230810-25-hntwlu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=101%2C135%2C3653%2C2898&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Damien Storan</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Data breaches are not a good look for any institution or organisation. But depending on the nature of the data leaked and the organisation, some breaches can be more serious and have greater consequences than others.</p>
<p>This is certainly true of the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI), which has <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-66447388">accidentally published information</a> about all its police officers and civilian personnel in response to a <a href="https://www.psni.police.uk/latest-news/update-data-breach-investigation">freedom of information (FoI) request</a>. This included a spreadsheet containing their names, their roles and where they were based. </p>
<p>The document was available online for several hours on the FoI website What Do They Know before being taken down. The PSNI is conducting an investigation into how this happened.</p>
<p>It has been reported that the spreadsheet contained approximately 345,000 pieces of data relating to every police officer. In confirming the breach, the PSNI attributed it to “human error” and stated that they were taking the matter “extremely seriously”. </p>
<p><a href="https://news.sky.com/story/dissident-republicans-claiming-to-be-in-possession-of-leaked-psni-information-chief-constable-says-12937320">PSNI chief constable Simon Byrne</a> said in a press conference that dissident republicans claim to have some of the information and that the force is considering whether officers need to be moved from their places of work for their safety.</p>
<p>The data breach is said to encompass all serving staff including specialist firearms units, the <a href="https://www.psni.police.uk/about-us/our-departments/operational-support/tactical-support-group">tactical support group</a> (which is responsible for public order and riot control) and those assigned to the <a href="https://www.psni.police.uk/about-us/our-departments/crime">specialist operations branch</a> who command and assist in complex investigations. </p>
<p>A remarkable wealth of information about PSNI personnel has been leaked, by any stretch of the imagination. Of the many reasons why this is so serious, three stick out in particular. </p>
<h2>1. Risking violence</h2>
<p>A data breach of this nature is likely to leave any police force red-faced, yet for the PSNI the consequences extend far beyond public embarrassment. The long and contested history of problems with policing in Northern Ireland means that there are both practical dangers and specific sensitivities that even the most well-crafted apology won’t be able to assuage.</p>
<p>The most immediate problem is that the personal information of serving police officers is now potentially in the public domain. This raises the question of who might have accessed this information and what they might do with it.</p>
<p>Today’s levels of violence in the north of Ireland are incomparable to the past but the threat of violence against serving police officers remains. This threat comes mainly from armed Irish republican groups who have rejected the peace process and Good Friday agreement.</p>
<p>To them, PSNI officers represent “legitimate targets” because they uphold the constitutional status quo of post-Good Friday agreement Northern Ireland. Unlike other nationalists and more moderate republicans who have come to accept reformed policing, for these armed groups the PSNI remains a “British” police force tasked with enforcing partition on the island of Ireland.</p>
<p>The live nature of the threat to PSNI officers was brutally reiterated this year when <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/john-caldwell-northern-ireland-police-detective-released-from-hospital-after-being-shot-several-times-in-front-of-son-12862006">PSNI detective chief inspector John Caldwell</a> was <a href="https://theconversation.com/omagh-police-shooting-why-attack-comes-at-a-difficult-time-in-northern-ireland-200592">shot in County Tyrone in February</a>. Several of the people due to be tried for his attempted murder are <a href="https://www.belfastlive.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/dci-john-caldwell-attempted-murder-27013359">also accused of being involved with the IRA</a>. </p>
<p>Crucially, Caldwell was targeted while he was off duty and packing up after leading a youth football training session. The people who attacked him appear to have known where to find him outside of work, clearly illustrating how personal information about PSNI officers could be used to devastating effect. </p>
<p>To make matters worse, it has been reported that the details of <a href="https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/psni-apologises-to-officers-and-civilian-staff-after-major-security-breach/a1823676448.html">40 PSNI staff based at MI5</a> are included in the breach. Personnel of this nature would surely represent prize targets to Irish republicans. </p>
<p>Any attack on these people that resulted in injury or death would be seen as a huge propaganda coup at a time when the armed campaigns of these groups are sporadic and stuttering.</p>
<h2>2. Stoking community tensions</h2>
<p>At the same time, the data breach speaks to a more difficult question around just how accepted the PSNI are in certain working-class communities. The struggle to recruit officers from working-class Catholic, nationalist, republican backgrounds is well documented. </p>
<p>Anyone from this background within the PSNI is unlikely to tell anyone beyond their closest family and friends what their job is. This is partly because of the security threat but also because of the problematic relationship their community had with the PSNI’s predecessor force, the <a href="https://pureadmin.qub.ac.uk/ws/portalfiles/portal/137233744/IPSRedraftMainText.pdf">Royal Ulster Constabulary</a>.</p>
<p>Yet the PSNI is also experiencing difficulty recruiting from working-class Protestant, unionist, loyalist areas too. Ongoing political tensions, including <a href="https://factcheckni.org/articles/did-unionism-always-oppose-the-northern-ireland-protocol/">Brexit</a>, disputes about which <a href="https://cain.ulster.ac.uk/issues/identity/flag-2012.htm">flags should fly over public buildings</a> in Northern Ireland and the policing of <a href="https://www.belfastlive.co.uk/news/psni-confirm-eight-arrests-during-27316038">Orange Order parades</a>, have put these communities at a remove from the PSNI. It is unlikely, then, that officers from within these communities would make their jobs publicly known either.</p>
<h2>3. Reviving unresolved grievances</h2>
<p>Some will also have been reminded of the past by this data breach, which has echoes of the deliberate intelligence leaks that used to come out of the <a href="https://www.policeombudsman.org/PONI/files/5c/5ce315c0-ca34-45c3-9dcc-7f4c2d2c4658.pdf">Royal Ulster Constabulary</a> during the years of conflict. The force passed the personal details <a href="https://twitter.com/RelsForJustice/status/1689183802407460864">of nationalists to state agents</a> within loyalist groups, who are accused of then murdering them. </p>
<p>This remains at the core of grievances over state collusion during the Troubles. While this latest data breach is different in nature, it nonetheless rubs at a sore spot for victims still waiting for truth and justice.</p>
<p>The leaking of personal details about every serving PSNI officer is without doubt an unmitigated disaster for the PSNI, politically and organisationally. While the force has apparently set up a “gold group” – the highest internal emergency response – significant damage has already been done.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211307/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kevin Hearty does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The attempted murder of an off-duty officer just a few months ago is clear evidence of what can happen when the personal information of PSNI staff becomes public.Kevin Hearty, Lecturer, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1912732022-09-23T15:03:24Z2022-09-23T15:03:24ZNorthern Ireland census shows more Catholics than Protestants – a political scientist on what this really means<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486274/original/file-20220923-11-cf20ms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Belfast City Hall, Northern Ireland.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/belfast-city-hall-co-antrim-northern-2040381179">Ballygally View Images | Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The results of the 2021 Northern Ireland census have been released and they <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-62980394">show that</a> 42.3% of the population identify as Catholic and 37.3% as Protestant or other Christian. The census included a supplementary question asking respondents – whether they were in fact religious or not – in which religion they were brought up. When adding in these answers, the percentages of Catholics and Protestants rise to 45.7% and 43.5% respectively. </p>
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<p>This outcome, <a href="https://www.northernslant.com/what-will-and-wont-the-2021-census-tell-us-about-northern-irelands-future/">though not unexpected</a>, is hugely symbolic. When Ireland was <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-century-after-partition-irelands-churches-are-cooperating-more-closely-than-ever-169068">partitioned</a> a century ago, religion figures from the 1911 census were used to draw Northern Ireland’s boundaries. This was to ensure that the territory had a Protestant majority of roughly two-to-one, supportive of the union with Britain. </p>
<p>As with <a href="https://www.thejournal.ie/northern-ireland-census-religion-national-identity-710758-Dec2012/">previous Northern Ireland censuses</a>, the spotlight has been on the religion numbers. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/22/catholics-outnumber-protestants-northern-ireland-census">Headlines</a> across the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-62980394">board</a> have highlighted that Catholics now outnumber Protestants for the first time. Drawing political conclusions from these figures, however, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0962-6298(97)00035-8">has always been problematic</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large white bridge over a grey river with a brick tower in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486276/original/file-20220923-10820-u3iw96.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486276/original/file-20220923-10820-u3iw96.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486276/original/file-20220923-10820-u3iw96.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486276/original/file-20220923-10820-u3iw96.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486276/original/file-20220923-10820-u3iw96.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486276/original/file-20220923-10820-u3iw96.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486276/original/file-20220923-10820-u3iw96.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Peace Bridge over the river Foyle, in Derry, inaugurated by both Northern Irish and Irish leaders in 2011.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/peace-bridge-over-river-foyle-guildhall-1076316998">Emerald Vision | Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What the religion statistics actually show</h2>
<p>It is not surprising that these most recent census results have been hailed by nationalists as <a href="https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2022/09/22/news/census_shows_historic_and_irreversible_change_is_under_way_sinn_fein-2837165/">signalling</a> that Irish reunification is edging closer. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/david-trimble-architect-of-good-friday-agreement-dies-at-77-his-gamble-is-still-paying-off-for-northern-ireland-187727">Good Friday Agreement</a> includes a provision for a <a href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/irish-reunification">border poll</a> to be held, should a majority appear to favour Irish unity. With Brexit already <a href="https://theconversation.com/survey-shows-brexit-vote-has-undermined-support-for-the-united-kingdoms-union-191138">causing some</a> to question the value of Northern Ireland’s place in the union, some have suggested that demographic change might be a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1369148120959045">factor</a> in triggering a poll.</p>
<p>Opinion polling, however, has consistently <a href="https://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2021/Political_Attitudes/REFUNIFY.html">shown</a> that a significant minority of Catholics do not necessarily favour Irish reunification. Further, the proportion of the population describing themselves as neither Protestant nor Catholic has been growing. In 1991, only 3.7% said <a href="https://www.nisra.gov.uk/sites/nisra.gov.uk/files/publications/1991-census-religion-report.pdf">stated</a> that they had no religion. This has now grown to 17.4%.</p>
<p>It was precisely for this reason that in 2001, faced with the need for data for the purpose of equalities monitoring, that statisticians added the new question about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1369148120959045">religious background</a>. </p>
<p>What we see now is an increasing proportion of people answering “none” in response to this supplementary question as well –- up to 9.3% in 2021, from 5.6% in 2011. This is, in part, why it appears increasingly uncertain whether the recorded Catholic share of the population will eventually grow to exceed 50%, which some commentators previously <a href="https://www.businesspost.ie/analysis-opinion/kevin-meagher-why-a-united-ireland-is-closer-than-we-think/">anticipated</a> as a border poll trigger. </p>
<p>While those describing themselves as Catholic or from a Catholic background now outnumber those from Protestant backgrounds, between 2011 and 2021, their share of the population only grew from 45.1% to 45.7%. In the medium term at least, Northern Ireland appears set to have <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/social-affairs/2022/09/22/catholics-outnumber-protestants-in-north-for-first-time-census-to-show/">three communities</a>, none of which constitute a majority: Catholics, Protestants and “neithers” or “others”.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People walk on a pavement past a tall corrugated iron barrier." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486280/original/file-20220923-11-5cgo20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486280/original/file-20220923-11-5cgo20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486280/original/file-20220923-11-5cgo20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486280/original/file-20220923-11-5cgo20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486280/original/file-20220923-11-5cgo20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486280/original/file-20220923-11-5cgo20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486280/original/file-20220923-11-5cgo20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A growing proportion of the Northern Irish population identifies as neither Catholic or Protestant.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/peace-lines-walls-series-separation-barriers-1200311971">Dignity100 | Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>How people define their national identity</h2>
<p>Given all this, some will look for potential clues to the constitutional future elsewhere in the results. Since 2011, the census has included questions on both passports held and national identity, for instance. </p>
<p>It is tempting to think that these questions were added because of their relevance to the debate about Northern Ireland’s future. The real reasons though are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1369148120959045">more mundane</a>. Moreover, they’re asked in all parts of the UK. </p>
<p>The question on passports was added, initially to the censuses of England and Wales and of Northern Ireland, in order to help satisfy an EU requirement for data on citizenship while the UK was still a member state. The responses available are “United Kingdom”, “Ireland”, “other” and “none”. Perhaps ironically, the rise in the number of people saying they hold Irish passports – from 375,800 in 2011 to 614,300 in 2021 – is likely to have been <a href="https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2022/09/23/news/brexit_effect_sees_irish_passports_in_northern_ireland_soar-2837385/">driven</a> as much by Brexit as by shifting demography.</p>
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<img alt="A sign next to a highway." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486282/original/file-20220923-214-sli0ex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486282/original/file-20220923-214-sli0ex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486282/original/file-20220923-214-sli0ex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486282/original/file-20220923-214-sli0ex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486282/original/file-20220923-214-sli0ex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486282/original/file-20220923-214-sli0ex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486282/original/file-20220923-214-sli0ex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rising numbers of Northern Irish residents holding Irish passports is due, in part, to Brexit-related border woes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/newry-northern-ireland-uk-11-dec-1232271247">Jonny McCullagh | Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1369148120959045">addition</a> of the national identity question, meanwhile, was prompted by criticism of the way the census had previously framed ethnicity. The 2021 census gave people in Northern Ireland several national identity options, including British, Irish and Northern Irish. And unlike with religion, they were able to tick more than one box. </p>
<p>In 2011, the results of this new question appeared to offer some hope to supporters of the union. While the Protestant majority <a href="https://factcheckni.org/articles/explainers/communal-counting-the-northern-ireland-census/">had disappeared</a>, unionists were able to point to the fact that <a href="https://www.proquest.com/newspapers/catholics-up-only-1-4-are-irish/docview/1236727298/se-2">only 25%</a> of people described themselves solely as Irish. While those identifying as British did not constitute a majority, they were nonetheless the largest group. </p>
<p>Come 2021, however, and the proportion describing their national identity as British (alone or in combination with other identities) has dropped from 48.4% to 42.8%. As the Belfast Telegraph’s Sam McBride <a href="https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/columnists/Sam-mcbride/census-results-are-bad-for-unionism-but-more-complex-than-some-are-claiming-42009357.html">has put it</a>, this “makes unspinnably grim reading for unionists”. </p>
<p>Just as with the religion statistics though, there is a third significant group that emerges from the national identity responses. Adding further complexity to the picture, 31.5% of respondents identified as Northern Irish, with 19.8% selecting this as their only national identity, highlighting that national identity can be more complex than citizenship.</p>
<p>When a border poll comes, the outcome will be decided in the ballot box rather than on census forms. This is not to deny that demographic change is happening in Northern Ireland or that it is politically significant. </p>
<p>What the census results highlight is not simply that there are now more Catholics than Protestants, but that there is a growing segment of the population that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/07907184.2021.1877892">defies categorisation</a>. Given that Northern Ireland no longer has a majority community and might not gain a new one anytime soon, appealing to this emerging middle is going to be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-923X.12835">a big part</a> of how the constitutional future will be won.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191273/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laurence Cooley receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.</span></em></p>Latest figures show that Northern Ireland comprises not just Catholics and Protestants but a third group that defies religious categorisation.Laurence Cooley, Lecturer in Comparative Politics, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1909972022-09-21T10:53:15Z2022-09-21T10:53:15ZFrom Queen Elizabeth to King Charles: how Northern Ireland’s unionists feel about the monarchy<p>Monarchism is embedded in Northern Ireland’s Ulster unionist identity. There is probably no such thing as a “republican unionist”. Many unionists descend from <a href="https://www.lancaster.ac.uk/troubledgeogs/chap2.htm">Protestant settlers from Britain</a> who colonised Ireland four centuries ago. Loyalty to the monarch was an essential qualification for those making the journey, and the basis of that loyalty was the Protestantism of the crown, which provided a bulwark against the Catholicism of the Irish and much of Europe.</p>
<p>As Britain’s global reach grew, Protestants in Ireland shared in what was believed to be the God-ordained prosperity and power of the empire. As Irish nationalism grew in the late 19th century, Protestants clung to the union with Britain to avoid absorption into what they feared would be a hostile all-Ireland state.</p>
<p>To this day, unlike the many people around the world who see the British monarchy as a symbol of oppression, unionists view it as the embodiment of their political and religious liberty.</p>
<p>After the partition of Ireland in 1921, as <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-british-studies/article/abs/james-loughlin-the-british-monarchy-and-ireland-1800-to-the-present-cambridge-cambridge-university-press-2007-pp-xv398-10200-cloth/5EE2FEB771B5796807DEBFBFBC9C629D">James Loughlin</a> writes in his history of the British crown in Ireland, “continued Unionist anxieties about constitutional security put a primacy on an enhanced identity with the monarchy”. Royal visits were used by the unionist government to legitimise their regime and affirm, for people at home and in Britain, their rightful place in the UK.</p>
<p>In Queen Elizabeth, unionists found a strong supporter. At her coronation in 1952, apparently at her wishes, war-time generals, aristocrats and politicians from Ulster held prominent ceremonial functions. Royal honours were bestowed on Northern Ireland subjects. Two swans were donated to Portadown.</p>
<p>But as Loughlin argues, royal endorsement merely stoked unionists’ complacency about their unjust practice of government. That practice was unsustainable and ultimately disintegrated amid the violence of the Troubles which began at the end of the 1960s.</p>
<p>In that conflict, unionist or “loyalist” paramilitaries were imprisoned in droves by the very state for which they were fighting. Their fidelity to the Queen but not her government led to them being described, in the title of a classic 1977 book on Ulster loyalism, as <a href="https://www.ucdpress.ie/display.asp?isbn=9781904558880&">Queen’s Rebels</a>. “Their only crime was loyalty,” went a loyalist slogan.</p>
<h2>After the Troubles</h2>
<p>In the peace process era, royal paraphernalia was inevitably drawn into Northern Ireland’s cultural battles. Unionists believed that republicans and nationalists wanted to eliminate all monarchical trappings, as had happened in the Republic of Ireland. </p>
<p>The proposal made in 1999 by the <a href="https://cain.ulster.ac.uk/issues/police/patten/patten99.pdf">Patten Commission</a> on police reform to remove the title “Royal Ulster Constabulary” from the police and the crown symbol from the police badge met with universal unionist anger. Nationalists countered that the equality mandated by the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-belfast-agreement">1998 Good Friday Agreement</a> meant that British cultural ascendancy had to end.</p>
<p>Today, few unionists would point to the Protestantism of the monarchy as the foundation of their political allegiance. That said, Queen Elizabeth’s Christian faith, expressed especially in her Christmas speeches, enhanced her personal appeal within the unionist community where there remains an affinity with Protestant evangelicalism and a respect for public piety.</p>
<p>While the Queen’s death has been deeply felt in unionist areas, Northern Ireland’s royalists and loyalists will be reassured by King Charles’s promises of continuity with his mother’s approach to the role. The Queen will remain in the unionist imagination, along with other figures from the past, as an exemplar and beacon of their Britishness.</p>
<p>But rather than being an unyielding symbol of continuity, the monarchy will reflect changing political circumstances. King Charles is at ease in the Republic of Ireland and appears unperturbed by the rise of Sinn Féin in the North (he actually seemed to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-62878272">congratulate Sinn Féin</a> on becoming the largest party when he visited Northern Ireland in the days following the Queen’s death).</p>
<p>While footage of <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-62849205">the Queen’s historic 2011</a> visit to Ireland has been replayed again and again, a less remembered but just as potent episode was the visit of the then-Prince Charles <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-32811732">to Mullaghmore in County Sligo</a> in 2015. He attended a service of reconciliation, shook hands with Irish republican leader Gerry Adams, and went to the location where his great uncle <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/from-the-archive-blog/2015/may/19/mountbatten-lord-prince-charles-ira-1979">Lord Mountbatten</a>, with whom he was close, was killed by the IRA in 1979. His visits to the Republic have become routine.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, unionists are reluctant to recognise the Irish identity of nationalists in Northern Ireland and to act as deputy to a Sinn Féin first minister since republicans’ success in May’s Assembly election. Their attitudes towards the Irish government have hardened since Brexit. </p>
<p>In a future referendum on Irish unity, unionists must maximise the electorate’s identification with the UK. This suggests that emulating the generosity towards traditional enemies shown by their revered late queen and her successor would be unionists’ most effective political strategy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190997/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Mitchell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The death of Queen Elizabeth will not weaken the attachment of Northern Ireland’s unionists to Britain. But it is a morale blow at a time of political uncertainty.David Mitchell, Assistant Professor in Conflict Resolution and Reconciliation, Trinity College DublinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1633972021-07-08T12:38:45Z2021-07-08T12:38:45ZPolitical frustration in Northern Ireland has heightened tension around ‘marching season’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410182/original/file-20210707-13-1ng0ebi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C4%2C3000%2C2007&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A diminished voice in the union?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/defaced-mural-showing-a-member-of-the-orange-order-is-seen-news-photo/55391631?adppopup=true">Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In Northern Ireland every year, a monthslong “<a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781003135050-7/marching-season-northern-ireland-expression-politico-religious-identity-rosanne-cecil">marching season</a>” sees members of a Protestant organization called the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-18769781">Orange Order</a> don suits and bowler hats and take to the streets armed with banners and drums. </p>
<p>The parades commemorate the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1163/157407807X257368">military victory of Dutch Protestant King William of Orange</a> over King James II, the last British Catholic monarch, in 1690. The festivities culminate with parades on July 12 – an occasion usually met with <a href="https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/psni-preparingfor-potential-street-violenceover-twelfth-of-july-40600983.html">trepidation by authorities fearful of sectarian violence</a>.</p>
<p>These triumphant celebrations of Protestant identity are <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/inside-europe-the-marching-season-tradition-or-provocation/av-39774505">seen as provocative</a> by Northern Ireland’s Catholic community. The marching season highlights a political divide in the territory, which sees Protestants largely identify as unionists – loyal to the United Kingdom – and most Catholics identify as nationalists, seeking to be part of a united Ireland.</p>
<p>There has been much speculation of renewed violence around this year’s commemorations. Commentators note that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/07/world/europe/northern-ireland-brexit-border.html">Brexit has intensified tensions in Northern Ireland</a>, as a result of the creation of a de facto maritime trade border in the Irish Sea. While this avoids the return of a “hard border” on the island of Ireland itself, Unionists see the arrangement as representing a dividing line between them and the rest of the U.K. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://gmu.academia.edu/GeraldFitzGerald/CurriculumVitae">scholar who works at the intersection of religion and politics</a>, I share the concerns of those who see the potential for impending violence. The fear is occasions like the July 12 marches provide an opportunity for these frustrations to boil over into unrest, especially given recent political developments.</p>
<h2>Opportunity for violence</h2>
<p>The circumstances of this year’s marching season align with what scholars call the “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119057574.whbva040">frustration-aggression hypothesis</a>.” Originally articulated by social psychologists at Yale University in the late 1930s, it holds that the likelihood of frustration producing political violence increases with the availability of an obvious outlet – in this case, the marches on July 12 – and the perceived lack of nonviolent ways to make frustrations felt.</p>
<p>Throughout the <a href="https://doi.org/10.3318/irisstudinteaffa.2018.0001">civil conflict in Northern Ireland</a>, the marching season became a catalyst for sectarian street violence. This was especially the case where Orange Order parade routes passed through predominantly Catholic areas.</p>
<p>The parades have been relatively peaceful since the 1998 <a href="https://education.niassembly.gov.uk/post_16/snapshots_of_devolution/gfa#:%7E:text=The%20Belfast%20Agreement%20is%20also,Northern%20Ireland%20should%20be%20governed.">Good Friday Agreement</a> – the deal struck by political leaders in Northern Ireland, Ireland and the U.K. that established a power-sharing arrangement and substantially ended political violence across the territory. Nevertheless, the history of the parades makes them a prime opportunity for expressions of simmering unionist frustrations.</p>
<p>This year’s marching season also comes in the context of a series of recent developments that have undermined unionists’ confidence in their political representation. Indeed, this past April saw <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/13/from-brexit-to-covid-rules-why-violent-riots-have-broken-out-in-northern-ireland.html">outbreaks of rioting</a> across Northern Ireland.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Loyalists throw a rock at police vehicles during unrest in Northern Ireland in April, 2021" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410183/original/file-20210707-25-1b0w3hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410183/original/file-20210707-25-1b0w3hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410183/original/file-20210707-25-1b0w3hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410183/original/file-20210707-25-1b0w3hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410183/original/file-20210707-25-1b0w3hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410183/original/file-20210707-25-1b0w3hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410183/original/file-20210707-25-1b0w3hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Unionist frustration spilled over into violence in April 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/group-loyalists-trow-projectiles-at-police-vehicles-on-news-photo/1232405661?adppopup=true">Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The largest unionist party in Northern Ireland is the Democratic Unionist Party, or DUP, founded in 1971 by <a href="https://theconversation.com/ian-paisley-from-sectarian-provocateur-to-peacemaker-31655">evangelical preacher Rev. Ian Paisley</a>. While Orangism has historically been more closely linked with the more moderate Ulster Unionist Party – the UUP – Orange Order leaders have <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/8486354.stm">attempted, unsuccessfully, to unify the unionist parties</a> into a single political bloc.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the DUP has lost considerable political influence in recent years. In 2017, it found itself <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/pa/gsx067">holding the balance of power</a> in the House of Commons and propping up Prime Minister Theresa May’s minority government. But when May’s successor, Boris Johnson, won an 80-seat majority in the election of 2019, the DUP suddenly lost bargaining power. In short, the U.K. government no longer required DUP votes to push through policy. </p>
<p>To <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/13/brexit-loyalist-unionist-violence-uvf-northern-ireland/">unionist dismay</a>, Johnson’s government agreed in January 2020 to a “Northern Ireland only” solution to its Brexit customs issue, ushering in a trade border in the Irish Sea between mainland Britain and Northern Ireland. This outcome played into <a href="https://doi.org/10.1057/s41293-019-00126-3">long-standing unionist insecurities about being “sold out” by Westminster</a>. </p>
<p>The DUP has also been diminished by the party’s own missteps. In May 2021, DUP leader <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-56910045">Arlene Foster resigned</a> after party colleagues mobilized to oust her. Her successor, Edwin Poots, inherited a politically vulnerable party. To make matters worse, Poots’ deal to restore power sharing to Northern Ireland was deeply unpopular among his party colleagues. He was forced to step down after only 21 days on the job.</p>
<p>This ongoing instability in unionist politics <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/support-for-dup-falls-to-16-after-poots-election-poll-shows-1.4572608">is reflected in plummeting support for the DUP</a> as frustrated unionists desert the party. Many have turned to the <a href="https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/media/livacuk/research/heroimages/The-University-of-Liverpool-NI-General-Election-Survey-2019-March-20.pdf">liberal and nonsectarian Alliance Party</a>.</p>
<p>But there is concern that <a href="https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/uk-news/953262/riding-high-in-may-shot-down-in-june-the-dup-implosion-explained">some disillusioned Protestants</a> may be pushed toward parties that oppose power sharing, such as the Traditional Unionist Voice, which was formed in 2007 by ex-DUP members who felt that the party has been too willing to compromise. </p>
<h2>Demographic change</h2>
<p>Social scientists contend that support for right-wing groups is driven by a sense of lost social and political supremacy, or “<a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0010414017720705?journalCode=cpsa">nostalgic deprivation</a>.”</p>
<p>This appears to play into what is happening on the ground in Northern Ireland. Demographic changes are contributing to this feeling of nostalgic deprivation. After decades in which Protestants have been the majority group, the 2021 census of Northern Ireland is <a href="https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/news/latest/2020/12/northern-ireland-census.aspx">widely expected to show virtual parity between Protestant and Roman Catholic populations</a>. </p>
<p>While the increasing Catholic population, relative to Protestant, <a href="https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/new-border-poll-survey-reveals-53-of-people-in-ni-want-to-stay-in-the-uk-40531085.html">does not translate into majority support for a United Ireland</a>, the shift exacerbates unionists’ <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-nireland-idUKKBN29513O">sense of lost supremacy</a>. With the DUP failing to deliver political results, there is a danger that “nostalgic deprivation” will find expression through other means, such as in outbursts of street violence during the marching season. Police in the region are preparing for such an eventuality by canceling leave for officers over the July 12 weekend and putting in place a “contingency plan” in case street unrest occurs, the <a href="https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/psni-preparingfor-potential-street-violenceover-twelfth-of-july-40600983.html">Belfast Telegraph reported</a>.</p>
<h2>Channeling aggression</h2>
<p>The danger in Northern Ireland is that the gap between expected and actual political outcomes can generate frustration and raise the likelihood of political violence. In the heady days of the 2016 referendum, <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/02/21/in-northern-ireland-there-is-a-strong-division-in-how-different-ethno-national-groups-voted-in-the-referendum/">unionist support for Brexit</a> was based on the expectation that it would solidify the union between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.</p>
<p>However, its <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/01/unionists-northern-ireland-brexit-backfired-uk-government-nationalists">effect has been the opposite</a>. It has established a customs and trade border between the two islands, weakening the link with mainland Britain and undermining the central goal of unionist politics.</p>
<p>Indeed, surveys indicate that <a href="https://ukandeu.ac.uk/northern-ireland-five-years-on/">a plurality of unionists now believe a united Ireland to be more likely as a consequence of Brexit</a>. This only exacerbates unionist frustration, increasing the chances of street violence during the “marching season.” As one young unionist put it in an <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e9c7e236-3936-48b1-93b8-3e470c7321fb">interview for the Financial Times</a>, “you have to be violent to be heard.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163397/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ger FitzGerald does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Northern Ireland’s Orange Order will take to the streets on July 12 to commemorate a Protestant military victory. A scholar explains why this year the risk of unrest is heightened.Ger FitzGerald, Adjunct Professor of Political Science, George Mason UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1581222021-04-12T12:27:26Z2021-04-12T12:27:26ZNorthern Ireland, born of strife 100 years ago, again erupts in political violence<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394278/original/file-20210409-23-ua7nwz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C8%2C5551%2C3692&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Northern Irish protesters on April 7, 2021, burn the Peace Gate in Belfast, built in the 1990s to separate the city's warring Protestant and Catholic communities.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/fire-fed-by-petrol-burns-as-youths-clashed-at-the-peace-news-photo/1232167469?adppopup=true">Charles McQuillan/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Sectarian rioting has returned to the streets of Northern Ireland, just weeks shy of its 100th anniversary as a territory of the United Kingdom. </p>
<p>For several nights, young protesters loyal to British rule – fueled by anger over Brexit, policing and a sense of alienation from the U.K. – set fires across the capital of Belfast and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/07/europe/northern-ireland-belfast-riots-intl-hnk/index.html">clashed with police</a>. Scores <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-56684571">have been injured</a>.</p>
<p>U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/boris-johnson-calls-for-calm-after-a-fiery-fourth-night-of-violence-in-northern-ireland">calling for calm</a>, said “the way to resolve differences is through dialogue, not violence or criminality.” </p>
<p>But Northern Ireland was born of violence. </p>
<p>Deep divisions between two identity groups – broadly defined as Protestant and Catholic – have dominated the country since its very founding. Now, <a href="https://www.economist.com/britain/2021/04/08/brexit-is-the-catalyst-for-rioting-in-northern-ireland">roiled anew by the impact of Brexit</a>, Northern Ireland is seemingly moving in a darker and more dangerous direction.</p>
<h2>Colonization of Ireland</h2>
<p>The island of Ireland, whose northernmost part lies a mere 13 miles from Britain, has been contested territory for at least nine centuries. </p>
<p>Britain long gazed with colonial ambitions on its smaller Catholic neighbor. The 12th-century <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/marking-the-norman-invasion-of-ireland-850-years-and-counting-1.3877350">Anglo-Norman invasion</a> first brought the neighboring English to Ireland. </p>
<p><iframe id="f4flZ" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/f4flZ/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>In the late 16th century, frustrated by continuing native Irish resistance, Protestant England implemented an aggressive plan to fully colonize Ireland and stamp out Irish Catholicism. Known as “<a href="https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/Plantations_in_Ulster.PDF">plantations</a>,” this social engineering exercise “planted” strategic areas of Ireland with tens of thousands of English and Scottish Protestants. </p>
<p>Plantations offered settlers cheap woodland and bountiful fisheries. In exchange, Britain established a base loyal to the British crown – not to the Pope. </p>
<p>England’s most ambitious plantation strategy was carried out in Ulster, the northernmost of Ireland’s provinces. By 1630, <a href="https://www.ancestryireland.com/understanding-plantation/movement-of-british-settlers-into-ulster-during-the-17th-century/">according to the Ulster Historical Foundation</a>, there were about 40,000 English-speaking Protestant settlers in Ulster. </p>
<p>Though displaced, the native Irish Catholic population of Ulster was not converted to Protestantism. Instead, two divided and antagonistic communities – each with its own culture, language, political allegiances, religious beliefs and economic histories – shared one region. </p>
<h2>Whose Ireland is it?</h2>
<p>Over the next two centuries, Ulster’s identity divide transformed into a political fight over the future of Ireland. </p>
<p>“Unionists” – most often Protestant – wanted Ireland to remain part of the United Kingdom. “Nationalists” – most often Catholic – wanted self-government for Ireland. </p>
<p>These fights played out in political debates, the media, sports, pubs – and, often, in street violence.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394303/original/file-20210409-23-1fvo9yc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Drawing of people in suits fleeing soldiers with guns" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394303/original/file-20210409-23-1fvo9yc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394303/original/file-20210409-23-1fvo9yc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394303/original/file-20210409-23-1fvo9yc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394303/original/file-20210409-23-1fvo9yc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394303/original/file-20210409-23-1fvo9yc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394303/original/file-20210409-23-1fvo9yc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394303/original/file-20210409-23-1fvo9yc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">British soldiers suppress a riot in Belfast in 1886.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/rioting-on-a-street-corner-in-belfast-norther-ireland-from-news-photo/1053837226?adppopup=true">Hulton Archive/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>By the early 1900s, a movement of Irish independence was rising in the south of Ireland. The nationwide struggle over Irish identity only intensified the strife in Ulster.</p>
<p>The British government, hoping to appease nationalists in the south while protecting the interests of Ulster unionists in the north, proposed in 1920 to <a href="https://www.rte.ie/centuryireland/index.php/articles/british-government-publishes-plan-to-partition-ireland">partition Ireland into two parts</a>: one majority Catholic, the other Protestant-dominated – but both remaining within the United Kingdom.</p>
<p>Irish nationalists in the south rejected that idea and carried on with their <a href="https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/cabinetpapers/themes/nationalism-war-independence.htm">armed campaign to separate from Britain</a>. Eventually, in 1922, they gained independence and became the Irish Free State, today called the Republic of Ireland.</p>
<p>In Ulster, unionist power-holders reluctantly accepted partition as the best alternative to remaining part of Britain. In 1920, the <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1920/67/pdfs/ukpga_19200067_en.pdf">Government of Ireland Act</a> created Northern Ireland, the newest member of the United Kingdom. </p>
<h2>A troubled history</h2>
<p>In this new country, native Irish Catholics were now a minority, making up less than a third of Northern Ireland’s 1.2 million people. </p>
<p>Stung by partition, nationalists refused to recognize the British state. Catholic schoolteachers, supported by church leaders, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0046760X.2020.1738563">refused to take state salaries</a>. </p>
<p>And when Northern Ireland seated its first parliament in May 1921, nationalist politicians did not take their elected seats in the assembly. The Parliament of Northern Ireland became, essentially, Protestant – and its pro-British leaders pursued a wide variety of <a href="https://www.historyireland.com/20th-century-contemporary-history/a-history-of-ulster-jonathan-bardon-and-nine-ulster-lives-g-obrien-p-roebuck-eds-11/">anti-Catholic practices</a>, discriminating against Catholics in public housing, voting rights and hiring. </p>
<p>By the 1960s, Catholic nationalists in Northern Ireland were mobilizing to demand more equitable governance. In 1968, police responded violently to a peaceful march to protest <a href="https://www.rte.ie/archives/exhibitions/1031-civil-rights-movement-1968-9/1034-derry-5-october-1968/319464-riots-in-derry-after-civil-rights-demonstration/">inequality in the allocation of public housing in Derry</a>, Northern Ireland’s second-largest city. In 60 seconds of unforgettable television footage, the world saw water cannons and baton-wielding officers attack defenseless marchers without restraint. </p>
<p>On Jan. 30, 1972, during another civil rights march in Derry, British soldiers opened fire on unarmed marchers, killing 14. This massacre, known as <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-foyle-west-47433319">Bloody Sunday</a>, marked a tipping point. A nonviolent movement for a more inclusive government morphed into a revolutionary campaign to overthrow that government and unify Ireland. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://global.oup.com/ushe/product/armed-struggle-9780195177534?cc=us&lang=en&">Irish Republican Army</a>, a nationalist paramilitary group, used bombs, targeted assassinations and ambushes to pursue independence from Britain and reunification with Ireland.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394298/original/file-20210409-13-zjfs0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Black-and-white image of armed police occupying a smoky city street" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394298/original/file-20210409-13-zjfs0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394298/original/file-20210409-13-zjfs0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394298/original/file-20210409-13-zjfs0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394298/original/file-20210409-13-zjfs0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394298/original/file-20210409-13-zjfs0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394298/original/file-20210409-13-zjfs0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394298/original/file-20210409-13-zjfs0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The city of Derry effectively became a war zone at times in 1969.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/view-of-police-officers-from-the-royal-ulster-constabulary-news-photo/537737902?adppopup=true">Independent News and Media/Getty Images)</a></span>
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<p>Longstanding paramilitary groups that were aligned with pro-U.K. political forces reacted in kind. Known as loyalists, these groups <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/security-forces-colluded-with-loyalists-to-carry-out-killings-1.356051">colluded with state security forces</a> to defend Northern Ireland’s union with Britain. </p>
<p>Euphemistically known as “the troubles,” this violence claimed <a href="https://cain.ulster.ac.uk/sutton/">3,532 lives</a> from 1968 to 1998.</p>
<h2>Brexit hits hard</h2>
<p>The troubles subsided in April 1998 when the British and Irish governments, along with major political parties in Northern Ireland, signed a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/14118775">landmark U.S.-brokered peace accord</a>. The Good Friday Agreement established a power-sharing arrangement between the two sides and gave the Northern Irish parliament more authority over domestic affairs. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/advice-for-colombia-from-countries-that-have-sought-peace-and-sometimes-found-it-67419">peace agreement made history</a>. But Northern Ireland remained deeply fragmented by identity politics and paralyzed by dysfunctional governance, according to my research on <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/a-troubled-sleep-9780190095574?cc=us&lang=en&">risk and resilience in the country</a>. </p>
<p>Violence has periodically flared up since.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394305/original/file-20210409-21-1x9bdgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Protester throws a hubcap at police, who stand in a line wearing full riot gear" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394305/original/file-20210409-21-1x9bdgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394305/original/file-20210409-21-1x9bdgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394305/original/file-20210409-21-1x9bdgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394305/original/file-20210409-21-1x9bdgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394305/original/file-20210409-21-1x9bdgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394305/original/file-20210409-21-1x9bdgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394305/original/file-20210409-21-1x9bdgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Protesters and police face off in Belfast on April 8, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/nationalists-attack-police-on-springfield-road-just-up-from-news-photo/1232187812?adppopup=true">Charles McQuillan/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Then, in 2020, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887">came Brexit</a>. Britain’s negotiated withdrawal from the European Union created a new <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/feb/18/irish-sea-border-protest-posters-reflect-loyalist-anxiety-in-northern-ireland">border in the Irish Sea</a> that economically moved Northern Ireland away from Britain and toward Ireland. </p>
<p>Leveraging the instability caused by Brexit, nationalists have renewed calls for a referendum on formal Irish reunification. </p>
<p>For unionists loyal to Britain, that represents existential threat. Young loyalists born after the height of the troubles are particularly fearful of losing a British identity that has always been theirs. </p>
<p>Recent spasms of street disorder suggest they will defend that identity with violence, if necessary. In some neighborhoods, nationalist youths <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/09/uk/northern-ireland-violence-explainer-gbr-intl/index.html">have countered with violence of their own</a>.</p>
<p>In its centenary year, Northern Ireland teeters on the edge of a painfully familiar precipice.</p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158122/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Waller was a visiting research professor at the George J. Mitchell Institute for Global Peace, Justice and Security at Queen’s University in Belfast. </span></em></p>Brexit has reopened an old battle over Northern Irish identity, leading to clashes in the street. Scores have been injured in the troubled UK territory’s worst outbreak of violence in decades.James Waller, Cohen Professor of Holocaust and Genocide Studies, Keene State CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1199552019-07-11T09:37:40Z2019-07-11T09:37:40ZNorthern Ireland: as marching season begins, a new political force is on the rise<p>There was a worrying <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jul/12/northern-ireland-orange-order-parades-12-july-amid-violence-belfast-derry">increase in violence</a> during the Protestant Orange marches of July 2018, a traditional flashpoint between Northern Ireland’s Nationalist and Unionist communities. The marches commemorate the victory of Protestant William of Orange over Catholic King James II at the 1690 <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/events/battle_of_the_boyne">Battle of the Boyne</a>. They are organised by the Orange Order every July 12 and take place throughout the province. </p>
<p>While tension thankfully did not reach levels seen in the past, a new political force, which stretches beyond the <a href="https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/06/07/northern-irelands-justice-system-weathers-the-storms-of-controversy-in-the-continuing-vacuum-from-government/">legacy issues</a> of the The Troubles, is emerging in the province. But can it really break the stranglehold of the main sectarian parties – and move the province further on from the lasting divisions typified by the annual Orange marches?</p>
<p>At a recent event at Queen’s University Belfast, a number of representatives from minority ethnic, gender, political and sexual <a href="https://www.qub.ac.uk/public-engagement/News/Makingpoliticalinstitutionsmoreinclusive.html">communities</a> discussed the exclusion faced by those not primarily motivated by the Green (Nationalist) or Orange (Unionist) agenda.</p>
<p>The discussion concluded that the power-sharing agreement between the two sides has stagnated and is unable to deliver policy reform that would limit discrimination or change a government system that has entrenched the divided political identities. While the two main parties – the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Fein – retain firm control over the province’s shared executive, their ongoing disregard for the ever-growing concerns of “others” will only lead to more frustration with government.</p>
<h2>A time of change</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/good-friday-agreement-ten-key-people-who-helped-bring-about-peace-in-northern-ireland-20-years-ago-94613">Good Friday Agreement</a>, signed 21 years ago, has undoubtedly transformed Northern Ireland for the better – and politically motivated violence, while still evident, is much <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/post-conflict-northern-ireland-is-still-plagued-by-political-violence-1.3470229">rarer now</a> than in the past.</p>
<p>The power-sharing agreement means that Unionists and Nationalists are represented in the executive and public office in proportion to their population share. It also protects the interests of Protestants and Catholics in the province. These structures are a powerful incentive for the two communities to use political, rather than violent, means to achieve their objectives. But they were not designed to reflect or empower the voice of “others”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-good-friday-agreement-in-northern-ireland-at-20-the-anthill-podcast-94610">The Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland at 20 – The Anthill podcast</a>
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<p>The European parliament elections on May 23 confirmed that past bipolar divides are diminishing, however. For the first time, Northern Ireland will be represented in the European parliament by a Unionist from the DUP, a Nationalist Sinn Fein MEP – and one from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-anti-brexit-party-just-made-an-extraordinary-breakthrough-in-northern-ireland-118068">Alliance Party</a>, which is non-aligned but anti-Brexit, and which made an 11% gain on its vote share in 2014. For many voters, Europe was one of the most emotive issues – with 57% of voters opting for <a href="https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/eu-elections-2019/eu-election-results-57-of-ni-voters-back-proremain-parties-38152582.html">pro-EU candidates</a> – and the Alliance win hinted at the arrival of a new type of politics.</p>
<p>This was a significant victory for the Alliance party – a political “other” in the province’s often bipartisan political system. But, in the earlier May 2 council elections, “others” also <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-48169406">doubled their vote share compared with the previous elections</a>. </p>
<p>Indeed, a range of “other” parties, positioning themselves as a clear anti-sectarian alternative, made significant gains in the council elections. The Greens <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/dup-remains-north-s-largest-party-but-alliance-makes-big-gains-1.3881495">doubled their number of seats</a>, while <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/04/northern-ireland-council-elections-live-results">Alliance</a> closed the gap on the DUP. Sinn Fein also suffered in their strongholds of Derry and Strabane, and lost five seats, with independent candidates taking the <a href="https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/05/07/post-election-analysis/">advantage</a>. </p>
<p>People Before Profit, a radical left-wing outfit with a broad social inclusion agenda, also performed well in the council elections, winning five seats – raising their 2014 total by four – including <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/may/04/northern-ireland-local-election-gains-for-small-parties-and-independents">two seats</a> on Belfast city council.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/an-anti-brexit-party-just-made-an-extraordinary-breakthrough-in-northern-ireland-118068">An anti-Brexit party just made an extraordinary breakthrough in Northern Ireland</a>
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<p>The “others” are hardly a homogenous group, but neither are the Unionists or Republicans. Hints of change are also evident in their ranks. May’s council elections, for example, saw the first <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-47969822">openly gay Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)</a> councillor, Alison Bennington, elected. She joins gay councillors elected in 2014 from <a href="https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2017/three-gay-politicians-on-newly-elected-belfast-city-council-30304675.html">Sinn Fein, the Progressive Unionist Party and the Ulster Unionist Party</a>.</p>
<h2>Too many vetoes</h2>
<p>But the right to veto any legislation that encroaches on issues of community is the centrepiece of the power-sharing arrangement in Northern Ireland – and this is a problem. Indeed, these veto powers have prevented the main parties from forming a functioning government <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/26/northern-ireland-power-sharing-stormont-crisis-timeline">for more than two years now</a>. </p>
<p>The biggest party in Northern Ireland, the DUP, has repeatedly blocked legislation that would legalise <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-42868004">same-sex marriage</a>, while abortion was banned in Northern Ireland [in all but exceptional cases] until this week’s Westminster vote to bring marriage equality and abortion <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jul/09/mps-vote-to-extend-same-sex-marriage-to-northern-ireland">rights to the province</a>. The results of the Westminster vote will likely place extra pressure on the DUP to reform the government, but it could once again employ the veto to stop the legislation coming into effect. </p>
<p>But while there is widespread frustration over Brexit and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-why-is-the-irish-border-backstop-so-crucial-to-securing-a-brexit-deal-113398">ongoing border question</a>, there is also growing and palpable discontent among voters surrounding the dominance of the two parties that are allocated government posts in the – defunct since March 2017 – Northern Ireland assembly.</p>
<p>The recent EU election happened at a point when Northern Ireland’s “other” community is growing more frustrated with the primacy of “green and orange” politics – and the province now holds a dubious <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/northern-ireland-talks-latest-power-sharing-deal-stormont-sinn-fein-dup-a8893096.html">world record</a> for the longest time without a government. With talks continuing, residents of the province are hoping that a working government can again start dealing with legislative issues and move beyond the classic divisions.</p>
<p>Today, these “others” mobilise their followers around the constitutional future of Northern Ireland, but they also stand up for pressing, but everyday issues, such as the environment, sectarianism and street crime.</p>
<p>While the victory for Alliance should not be seen as the destruction of the Nationalist and Unionist values that allow the DUP and Sinn Fein to remain the biggest parties in Northern Ireland, it is a message that the government is not working for an ever-growing community. They ignore this message at their peril.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119955/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timofey Agarin receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (UK) for the project ‘Exclusion amid Inclusion: Power-Sharing and Non-Dominant Minorities’. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Drew Mikhael does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many voters in Northern Ireland are tired of the sectarian stranglehold of Sinn Fein and the DUP – and the ‘others’ are gaining ground.Drew Mikhael, Research Fellow in the School of History, Anthropology, Philosophy and Politics, Queen's University BelfastTimofey Agarin, Senior Lecturer, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1149652019-04-11T01:33:34Z2019-04-11T01:33:34ZBrexit is a rejection of the Good Friday Agreement for peace in Northern Ireland<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268220/original/file-20190408-2918-7iv1ad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Signs of protest along the Irish border. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Peter Morrison</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The European Union has offered U.K. lawmakers <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/10/world/europe/uk-eu-brexit-extension.html">more time to agree on a Brexit plan</a>.
Why is the extension needed? </p>
<p>Theresa May’s plan to exit the European Union has <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/brexit-referendum/theresa-may-s-brexit-divorce-deal-fails-once-again-parliament-n982166">failed to pass the British Parliament three times</a>. Some have blamed <a href="https://theconversation.com/3-days-3-key-votes-and-no-end-in-sight-for-brexit-113515">party disunity</a> or May’s <a href="https://www.economist.com/britain/2019/03/28/the-end-of-theresa-may">mishandling of this issue</a>. </p>
<p>However, a key reason for the failure – and the one that hasn’t received a lot of attention – is the so-called “Irish backstop.” </p>
<p>The EU requested, and May agreed, to the backstop in order to protect the Good Friday Agreement, which relies on both countries being in the EU. A hard border would require checkpoints and other infrastructure that could become physical and symbolic flashpoints for Nationalists who support a united Ireland. </p>
<p>A new analysis that we have just completed shows that Parliament’s objection to the backstop amounts to an implicit rejection of the Good Friday Agreement, the agreement that brought the end of armed conflict in Northern Ireland. Indeed, the reasons Parliament objects to the backstop are exactly what made the peace agreement work.</p>
<p><iframe id="5iNGh" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/5iNGh/7/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>How does the Good Friday Agreement factor in?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/136652/agreement.pdf">Good Friday Agreement</a>, signed 21 years ago, didn’t solve the geopolitical dispute at the heart of the decadeslong conflict in Northern Ireland: Should Northern Ireland be a part of the U.K. or the Republic of Ireland? </p>
<p>Instead, the agreement found a creative way around the issue by <a href="https://newleftreview.org/issues/I233/articles/brendan-o-leary-the-nature-of-the-british-irish-agreement">allowing a form of co-sovereignty</a>. The Good Friday Agreement allowed people in Northern Ireland to identify as Irish, British, or both, and to hold a passport from either or both countries. </p>
<p>As a consequence, people and goods currently cross the border without stopping. </p>
<p>As Jonathan Powell, one of the key negotiators for the British in the peace talks, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/04/good-friday-agreement-20th-anniversary/557393/">argued</a>, having a soft border “meant the issue of identity was really removed from the table.” This was no small feat in a place where one’s identity as Irish/Nationalist or British/Unionist historically shaped where you lived, who you married and where you worked.</p>
<p>But then Brexit came along and challenged core elements of the Good Friday Agreement. </p>
<p>When the U.K. eventually leaves the EU, the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland will require a border apparatus to check passports of visitors, track the origin and quality of goods, and collect appropriate taxes or customs. </p>
<p>Recreating border infrastructure risks undermining the extensive economic integration that has developed between Ireland and Northern Ireland. It also upends the ability of Nationalist citizens of Northern Ireland – people who advocate for a united and independent Irish state – to see themselves as Irish while living in Northern Ireland. The <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/equal-rights-in-northern-ireland-threatened-by-brexit/">British government has already announced</a>, for example, that after Brexit it will no longer treat people born in Northern Ireland who claim Irish citizenship the same as citizens of the Irish Republic when it comes to certain rights and benefits that are guaranteed to EU subjects living in the U.K. </p>
<p>For the Nationalist population in Northern Ireland, this means <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/theresa-mays-brexit-settled-status-scheme-could-break-good-friday-agreement-2019-4">a key provision in the Good Friday Agreement</a> – the right to choose your identity and to carry dual passports – no longer applies. </p>
<h2>Why was the backstop controversial?</h2>
<p>As scholars of Northern Ireland, we are keenly interested in how Brexit will affect the peace. We just returned from the annual International Studies Association meeting where we presented a paper on how members of Parliament were discussing Brexit’s impact on Northern Ireland. </p>
<p>In particular, we focused on three debates held over eight days between December and March in the House of Commons on the prime minister’s withdrawal deal. </p>
<p>Using <a href="https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2018-12-04/debates/C112155E-C163-4D6B-A4E2-F0F7DD0D7D14/EuropeanUnion(Withdrawal)Act">the Hansard record</a> of parliamentary debates, we cataloged the objections members of Parliament made about May’s Brexit deal. While the primary objection was trade, the backstop received the second highest number of objections. </p>
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<p>Theresa May staunchly supported the backstop in all three parliamentary debates. Her grounds were that it would maintain Northern Ireland’s place in the union by preserving its peace deal and providing for the interests of <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/10/15/explaining-brexit-and-the-northern-ireland-question/">the majority of its residents who do not want a hard border</a>. </p>
<p>She referred to the provision of the Good Friday Agreement that allows the people of Northern Ireland to choose to leave the union and form a united Ireland. </p>
<p>If “this House cares about preserving our Union, it must listen to those people, because our Union will only endure with their consent,” May said.</p>
<p>However, many members of Parliament who opposed May’s plan saw it another way. </p>
<p>They argued that the backstop represented a threat to the union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland because it would treat Northern Ireland differently than the rest of the U.K. by leaving it subject to EU regulations. </p>
<p>Dozens of MPs referred to the risk of breaking up the U.K. As Conservative Party MP Priti Patel <a href="https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2019-01-10/debates/159740E3-991B-4DF4-A29C-D04B2F1CE10F/EuropeanUnion(Withdrawal)Act">said during the Jan. 10 debate</a>, this would be the “first time in modern history a U.K. government negotiate[d] to cede part of our country to a foreign power.” </p>
<p>Throughout the three debates, the peace process was not central for most MPs. Indeed, while the backstop received 795 mentions in the three debates we analyzed, “Good Friday Agreement” and “Belfast Agreement” – two terms that describe the same accord – combined received only 90. This indicates that discussion of the backstop was not commonly tied to the agreement.</p>
<p>When MPs did mention the agreement, and what the rejection of the backstop would mean for it, they primarily defended only one side of the historical conflict – the side of the Unionists who support Northern Ireland’s political connection with Great Britain.</p>
<p>Several reasons explain why.</p>
<h2>A one-sided debate</h2>
<p>First, although the largest Nationalist Party in Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein, fields candidates for parliamentary elections, the party’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/03/world/europe/sinn-fein-mps-brexit.html">seven MPs refuse to take their seats</a> because they do not acknowledge the sovereignty of the U.K. in Northern Ireland. </p>
<p>With the Nationalist side not represented in Parliament, the Unionist position became, by default, Northern Ireland’s position.</p>
<p>Second, after May lost her majority in the 2017 elections, she was forced to enter into <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2017-40217141">what’s called a “confidence and supply agreement</a>” with the Democratic Unionist Party’s 10 MPs in order to govern. The DUP views a united Ireland as an existential threat to its Protestant, British identity. It has become <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2017/results/northern_ireland">the largest party in Northern Ireland</a> since the Good Friday Agreement, though it represents only about 36% of voters there. </p>
<p>In the agreement with May, the DUP pledged to support May’s positions on major policy decisions. In return, May’s party renewed its commitment to preserving the union between Northern Ireland and Great Britain and delivered more than <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/conservative-and-dup-agreement-and-uk-government-financial-support-for-northern-ireland/agreement-between-the-conservative-and-unionist-party-and-the-democratic-unionist-party-on-support-for-the-government-in-parliament">£1 billion in funding</a>. </p>
<p>May’s Conservative and Unionist Party is dependent on DUP support to stay in power, but <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/northern-ireland-peace-process">the DUP has never supported the Good Friday Agreement</a>. In fact, it was the only party to withhold support for the agreement in 1998. It has spent most of the time since <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/arlene-foster-good-friday-agreement-brexit-deal-dup-northern-ireland-a8564551.html">trying to rewrite or undermine the agreement</a>. </p>
<p>The DUP did agree, as part of the agreement with May, to “adhere fully” to its commitments in the Good Friday Agreement, but the agreement provides no benchmarks for what support should entail.</p>
<p>And, in each of the debates we analyzed, <a href="https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0329/1039464-dup-backstop/">the DUP breaks this pledge by strongly opposing the withdrawal deal</a>. Not surprisingly, they see the backstop as a threat.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2018-12-04/debates/C112155E-C163-4D6B-A4E2-F0F7DD0D7D14/EuropeanUnion(Withdrawal)Act">DUP MP Paul Girvan said in the December debate</a>, “What was not achieved by” armed Nationalists during the conflict “has been achieved by bureaucrats in Europe with a pen.” </p>
<p>These debates reveal that many in Parliament seem willing to reject the very arrangement that made peace in Northern Ireland possible. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2019-01-15/debates/2504FA7B-45BE-423D-8971-E451EF0594A9/EuropeanUnion(Withdrawal)Act">Conservative MP Stephen Crabb noted in the House of Commons in January</a>, the challenge of “squaring Brexit against the Northern Ireland peace process was always going to require incredibly sensitive handling and … compromises were always going to be inevitable.”</p>
<p>Our analysis reveals that it’s not clear that Parliament has the cohesion or commitment to do the hard work that is required to preserve the agreement.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114965/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carolyn Gallaher is affiliated with Latin American Working Group Education Fund, where she serves as the Chair of the Board. The position is not funded and the organization is a non-profit. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kimberly Cowell-Meyers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Two scholars examine days of parliamentary debate to learn how British MPs talk about the ‘Irish backstop’ and maintaining peace in Northern Ireland.Kimberly Cowell-Meyers, Assistant Professor, Department of Government, American University School of Public AffairsCarolyn Gallaher, Associate Dean for Faculty Affairs, American University School of International ServiceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/992662018-07-04T12:22:29Z2018-07-04T12:22:29ZNew Brexit poll finds a plan for the Irish border both unionists and nationalists can agree on<p>The prevailing wisdom concerning Brexit and the Irish border is that it’s an impossible trilemma. A solution will either disappoint the Brexiteers (if the UK essentially remains in the customs union), the unionists in Northern Ireland (if a border is placed in the Irish Sea), or Irish nationalist opinion (if there is any semblance of a north-south border).</p>
<p>The UK government meanwhile seems to be going through a form of collective grieving: first <a href="http://www.thejournal.ie/david-davis-brexit-technology-3923080-Mar2018/">denial</a> of the difficulty of resolving the border issue via technology solutions, then <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/irish-government-bows-to-sinn-f-in-over-brexit-david-davis-claims-tc97jmpmh">anger and accusations</a> that the Irish government was taking a hard line on the border for political gain. </p>
<p>Now Whitehall seems to accept that it needs to come up with some creative alternatives, and a possible new “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/02/may-to-float-third-brexit-customs-model-at-chequers-meeting">improved” approach</a> on the customs union looks likely to emerge at a crunch cabinet meeting at Chequers on July 6. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-whats-the-difference-between-hard-and-soft-brexit-66524">Explainer: what's the difference between 'hard' and 'soft' Brexit?</a>
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<p>But beyond the apparent incompatibility of the current options there is evidence of more convergence than is popularly understood. Our new survey on citizen preferences in Northern Ireland over post-Brexit border arrangements adds an important dimension to this debate.</p>
<p>First the bad news: there is no agreement on the fundamental issue about where a hard border should be located. But the good news is there may be trade-offs to be negotiated that could make what is unacceptable in isolation, acceptable in association with other perceived benefits. </p>
<p>We also found that there is a form of border arrangement in Ireland that could command unionist and nationalist support – and it involves an east-west border in the Irish Sea. </p>
<h2>Hard choices</h2>
<p>Our survey of 535 people in Northern Ireland in May and June 2018 used what is known as “<a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis/article/causal-inference-in-conjoint-analysis-understanding-multidimensional-choices-via-stated-preference-experiments/414DA03BAA2ACE060FFE005F53EFF8C8">conjoint analysis</a>” – which is different from typical polling and particularly suited to complex choices. Instead of measuring levels of support on individual issues, our methodology looks at different packages of options to determine the types of trade-offs people may be prepared to consider.</p>
<p>Respondents were asked to choose between two hypothetical border agreements. Each agreement had five attributes, outlined in the table below: the location of border stations, the characteristic of border checks, monitoring of border crossing, responsibility for the costs of maintaining border infrastructure and compensation for changes to border arrangements. </p>
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<p>As only one choice could be selected, we asked respondents to make trade-offs between the two hypothetical border agreements they were presented with. We asked them to do this four times, meaning they were exposed to pairs of options involving eight potential agreements. </p>
<p>To estimate the support for different scenarios we constructed a statistical model that estimated how important each border element – such as whether there would be physical or electronic checks – was to respondents’ choices. We then used this model to simulate support for different packages of border arrangements. The percentages in the graph below are estimates of the level of support for these different packages based on our statistical analysis. </p>
<h2>Ulster says no – to no deal</h2>
<p>Two headline messages emerged, both of which should be noted by the UK and Irish governments and the political parties in Northern Ireland.</p>
<p>We found little public support in Northern Ireland for the consequences of a no deal outcome for the border. This scenario would mean a hard north-south border, physical checks, maintained by the UK, without specific compensation for the costs after Brexit take place. Overall support for this was estimated at an average of 34%. While the low level of nationalist support for this option was to be expected, it was also the least favoured option for unionists at an average of 44%. </p>
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<p>A majority of both unionists and nationalists supported a scenario where the border was east-west – between the island of Ireland and the rest of the UK. But crucially, the preferred scenario also involved an electronic border with the provision for random physical checks, shared border control and maintenance by the UK and Irish governments, and financial compensation (a 10% rise in public spending in Northern Ireland). This scenario was supported by 65% of people surveyed – 66% of nationalists and 65% of unionists. </p>
<p>This scenario has the potential to soften unionist concerns that Northern Ireland would be physically annexed from Great Britain after the UK leaves the EU. Unionist distaste for a border in the Irish Sea is mitigated in this option by the fact that the border would be mostly invisible, compensated by additional public spending and jointly managed by the two governments.</p>
<h2>Political calculations</h2>
<p>Our findings raise interesting political questions. If the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) props up a government in Westminster that delivers an unpopular “no deal” Brexit and a hard border in Ireland, would this be felt within unionist party politics? The Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) campaigned for Remain in the Brexit referendum before eventually accepting the result. But if the DUP is midwife to a hard Brexit outcome that is objectionable to unionist voters, this could provide an issue that gives the UUP some traction against its larger unionist rival. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Irish nationalist parties Sinn Fein and the Social Democratic and Labour Party have welded Brexit to the Good Friday Agreement and the wider peace process, so it is unclear how they would respond to the idea of a Brexit that does not affect the border in Ireland. And if the Irish government accepted an east-west frontier with mild border checks, would the EU entertain it as a way forward? </p>
<p>The answer to what the actor Danny Dyer recently <a href="https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Good+Evening+Britain+Danny+Dyer+Brexit&view=detail&mid=A1E5F3DE85AB8AE4A8D3A1E5F3DE85AB8AE4A8D3&FORM=VIRE">called</a> the “mad Brexit riddle” – in terms of the Irish border at least – would seem to lie in an east-west direction in the Irish Sea, rather than a north-south direction.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99266/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neophytos Loizides receives funding from the British Academy, the Economic and Social Research Council and the US Institute of Peace.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Edward Morgan-Jones, Feargal Cochrane, and Laura Sudulich do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When Northern Irish people were asked to choose between two scenarios for the post-Brexit border, they opted for one in the Irish Sea – with conditions.Feargal Cochrane, Professor of International Conflict Analysis, School of Politics and International Relations, University of KentEdward Morgan-Jones, Senior Lecturer in Comparative Politics, University of KentLaura Sudulich, Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of KentNeophytos Loizides, Professor in International Conflict Analysis, University of KentLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/964252018-05-11T08:29:16Z2018-05-11T08:29:16ZAmnesty for British soldiers fuels division over dealing with Northern Ireland’s past<p>Recent disagreement within the British cabinet over Brexit has been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/may/09/cabinet-divided-over-plans-to-investigate-unsolved-ni-killings">further fuelled</a> by the question of how to deal with Northern Ireland’s past. Now there appears to be division over an official <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-44042438">consultation document</a> about the mechanisms for addressing legacy issues relating to the conflict known as “the Troubles”. These mechanisms were agreed upon in the 2014 <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-stormont-house-agreement">Stormont House Agreement</a> that aimed to break a deadlock in powersharing between unionists and republicans that remains ongoing.</p>
<p>The aim of the consultation – on hold since 2015 – is to inform the legislation that will implement mechanisms, including a new Historical Investigations Unit. The unit will have full police powers in all “criminal investigations” it undertakes into deaths related to the conflict. Its <a href="http://rightsni.org/2015/01/the-historical-investigations-unit-hiu-why-the-devil-will-still-be-in-the-detail/">remit</a>, as currently understood, is to take on cases that weren’t completed by the Historical Enquiries Team (HET) – the policing body wound up in late 2014 that had previously been investigating legacy cases, since replaced by the <a href="https://www.psni.police.uk/inside-psni/our-departments/legacy-and-justice-department/legacy-investigation-branch/">PSNI Legacy Investigations Branch</a> (LIB). </p>
<p>It will also take on legacy cases of the Police Ombudsman for Northern Ireland, and other cases where new evidence has emerged that was not put before the HET investigators. And it will be tasked with re-investigating previous HET investigations that were flawed. Its aim is to bring cases forward for prosecution, though the decision to prosecute will remain with the Public Prosecution Service.</p>
<h2>Accusations of bias</h2>
<p>The current disagreement within the cabinet relates to the omission of a proposed amnesty for British soldiers accused of unlawful killings that was expected to be part of the consultation paper. </p>
<p>There are questions as to whether the type of amnesty for British soldiers initially sought by the British government is legal under international law. <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cmselect/cmdfence/1064/106402.htm">Expert opinion</a> given to MPs on the Defence Select Committee in 2017, indicated that a one-sided amnesty that was not linked to wider truth recovery would be open to legal challenge. Amid concerns that this might lead to an extension of protection to paramilitary groups, unionist politicians suggested <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-44053009">a statute of limitations</a> that would only apply to British soldiers already cleared by a previous investigation. Again, this is legally questionable.</p>
<p>The political backdrop to the issue mirrors wider politicking over dealing with the past. The British government has previously spoken of a <a href="https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/full-text-of-speech-from-secretary-of-state-theresa-villiers-1-7209438">“pernicious counter narrative”</a> that is trying to blame the state for the conflict in Northern Ireland. </p>
<p>On the back of this, on May 9, British Prime Minister Theresa May said that the current process of investigating legacy cases is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/may/09/cabinet-divided-over-plans-to-investigate-unsolved-ni-killings">“patently unfair”</a> and biased against military veterans. The hardline Democratic Unionist Party have also claimed that <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-38844453">90% of the Legacy Investigations Branch</a> caseload focused on cases involving the British Army.</p>
<p>However, figures relating to the investigation of deaths related to the conflict have challenged claims of a bias. Figures obtained by the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-38844453">BBC in 2017</a> show that of the 1,118 killings being investigated by the LIB, 530 were attributed to Irish republicans, 271 to loyalists, 354 attributed to the security forces and 33 were unknown. Figures relating to the completed HET caseload showed that of the 1,615 cases undertaken, 1,038 were attributed to Irish republicans, 536 to loyalists, 32 attributed to the British Army and nine were unknown. Those attributed to the Royal Ulster Constabulary are investigated by the Police Ombudsman for Northern Ireland. </p>
<p><a href="http://data.parliament.uk/WrittenEvidence/CommitteeEvidence.svc/EvidenceDocument/Defence/Investigations%20into%20fatalities%20in%20Northern%20Ireland%20involving%20British%20military%20personnel%20%E2%80%8B/written/48436.html#_ftn16">Public Prosecution Service figures</a> also show that of the 17 prosecutorial decisions taken since 2011, 11 relate to paramilitary groups, with a decision not to prosecute being taken in half the cases relating to members of the security forces. In fact, to date no member of the security forces has been convicted in relation to a legacy case. A <a href="https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/ruc-mans-killer-seamus-kearney-to-walk-free-after-just-two-years-in-prison-34217314.html">handful of</a> former paramilitaries have. However, on May 10, one <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-44054776">former soldier</a>, Dennis Hutchings, was told he would stand trial for a killing in 1974.</p>
<h2>Put human rights at the centre</h2>
<p>Central to the argument of those championing a statute of limitations is the notion that members of the security services should not be re-investigated if previous investigations have cleared them. There are also arguments about <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-44054776">previous assurances</a> given to soldiers that they would not face trial.</p>
<p>But this disregards an important point. The HET investigations into many cases involving the security forces have been shown <a href="http://www.thedetail.tv/articles/het-acting-illegally-in-approach-to-security-force-member-connected-killings">to be flawed</a>, something accepted by <a href="https://www.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/hmicfrs/media/inspection-of-the-police-service-of-northern-ireland-historical-enquiries-team-20130703.pdf">Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of the Constabulary</a>. Meanwhile, the <a href="http://www.omuirighsolicitors.com/media/press-release-judicial-review-of-psni-independence-in-legacy-cases-case-of-jean-smyth/">independence of the LIB</a> continues to be questioned. </p>
<p>Essentially, the matter hinges on securing investigations into deaths related to the conflict in Northern Ireland that are compliant with human rights law. These investigations must satisfy the state’s obligation to hold an independent investigation under Article 2 of the <a href="https://www.echr.coe.int/Documents/Convention_ENG.pdf">European Convention on Human Rights</a>. </p>
<p>Researchers, human rights activists and lawyers working on how to deal with the past in Northern Ireland have <a href="https://amnesties-prosecution-public-interest.co.uk/themainevent/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Conference_Report_2015-Implementing-the-Stormont-House-Agreement.pdf">stressed</a> the need for the new unit to retain independence from the government and not to be hamstrung by national security restraints. This would stand in contrast to previous investigations by the HET and to ongoing investigations by the LIB. </p>
<p>In the context of ongoing legal and political wrangling over the issue, it’s unclear whether or not the Historical Investigations Unit will deliver what it was initially set out to do.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96425/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kevin Hearty does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The British cabinet is split over whether to impose a statue of limitations on investigations into alleged crimes by former soliders in Northern Ireland.Kevin Hearty, Research Fellow, School of Law, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/947582018-04-10T15:21:08Z2018-04-10T15:21:08ZLeadership of unionists and loyalists that agreed peace in Northern Ireland is sadly lacking today<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214079/original/file-20180410-540-1aj72iq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A loyalist mural in Belfast. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/punch/5190690519/in/photolist-8UFDs8-7Y2ANV-7kh3Wk-7kgopX-7kg52z-7kfXit-7kgcaT-7Y6a8N-7kfV3a-7kjx3J-7kggsi-7Y5BdA-bRSBkr-7kgjYe-QE5L8v-7kjF9U-5wkEf2-7Y2UMa-9rQdhU-7kkcRb-4pgz9K-7eCri7-7kfJoH-7Y2TW4-pJ7oh-8ggEAr-ekm8R-6qPyVP-7kk3gJ-4pgzUt-foKqpX-7Y5Smm-5x3iAd-7kk4R3-GywD-5aPW9H-5wpYwy-JJBm-Gyrk-87gs1e-5x3kHN-bCNgNL-6qTHhU-9PsVF-88aGaw-5wXVpK-7Y2F5z-eJ7wEP-9Z7NUA-6CYVxd">Punchyy/flickr.com</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The ongoing <a href="https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/no-prospect-of-deal-to-restore-northern-ireland-executive-arlene-foster-36604277.html">failure to restore devolved</a> power-sharing in Northern Ireland has highlighted for many the pressing issue of <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/denis-bradley-how-do-you-solve-a-problem-like-unionism-1.3398989">leadership – or perceived lack of it</a> within Ulster unionism and loyalism. For this reason, it is worth reflecting on the time of the 1998 Belfast Agreement – also known as the Good Friday Agreement – which featured significant moments of leadership and political progress from these mutual ideologies.</p>
<p>Both unionists and loyalists support Northern Ireland’s constitutional status as part of the UK: where they differ is in terms of social class. Unionists are traditionally middle-class (or elite), while loyalists are working-class. This is embodied in the two political leaders who delivered and backed the Belfast Agreement: <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/apprentice-for-peace-profile-david-trimble-1154518.html">David Trimble</a> and <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/events/northern_ireland/profiles/290381.stm">David Ervine</a>.</p>
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<p><strong><em>For more on the 20th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, listen to the latest <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/podcasts/the-anthill">episode of The Anthill podcast</a>.</em></strong> </p>
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<p>Trimble was born into a fairly comfortable Presbyterian home in Bangor, County Down, and after grammar school took a law degree at Queen’s University, Belfast. Qualifying as a barrister, he pursued a successful academic career at Queen’s and only entered politics full-time in 1990. Five years he later succeeded the ancient James Molyneaux, who had held the fort since 1979, as leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), then the largest Unionist grouping.</p>
<p>Trimble had been active in the Vanguard movement and the Ulster Workers Council Strike of May 1974, when he was looked on favourably by loyalist paramilitaries. A member of the Orange Order who had embraced Ian Paisley – leader of the hardline Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) – during the Drumcree parading dispute of 1995, Trimble did not seem likely to move unionism towards accommodation with Irish nationalism.</p>
<h2>Peace makers</h2>
<p>However, Trimble drew on a distinguished pool of advisers – including Queen’s University professor (now Lord) Paul Bew – and showed genuine courage in convincing Ulster unionist organisations, public gatherings, and individual voters of the merits of the Good Friday Agreement.</p>
<p>Though he did the heavy lifting, Trimble’s awkward personality sometimes got the better of him, and by 2003 Paisley’s DUP had overtaken the UUP electorally. Trimble <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2005/may/06/election2005.uk13">lost his own Westminster seat</a> two years later and resigned from the UUP to take up a place in the House of Lords, where he currently rests as a Conservative peer. He is now a firm supporter of Brexit – which many have argued will actually <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/blair-brexit-brings-united-ireland-closer-kbtcwcd0k">damage the union</a>. And he <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/dublin-s-border-stance-could-provoke-loyalist-paramilitaries-trimble-warns-1.3452848">recently warned of violent reprisals</a> from loyalist paramilitaries if Northern Ireland does not follow the UK out of the European Union. </p>
<p>If Trimble’s leadership qualities appear to have diminished, it would be intriguing to discover what the late David Ervine would make of the current climate. Born into a working-class east Belfast community in 1953, Ervine’s mother was a hardline unionist and follower of Paisley, while his father was a more liberal, socialist supporter of the Northern Ireland Labour Party. The division is key to understanding Ervine himself.</p>
<p>He left school at 14 and was radicalised by the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/events/bloody_friday_belfast">July 1972 Bloody Friday</a> bombings, when the Provisional IRA placed 22 bombs (mostly targeting Protestant premises) in the centre of Belfast. In response, Ervine joined the paramilitary group the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-11313364">Ulster Volunteer Force</a> (UVF) and was arrested by security forces in November 1974, receiving a prison sentence of 11 years for possession of explosives.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/good-friday-agreement-ten-key-people-who-helped-bring-about-peace-in-northern-ireland-20-years-ago-94613">Good Friday Agreement: ten key people who helped bring about peace in Northern Ireland 20 years ago</a>
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<p>Ervine underwent a political voyage in Long Kesh prison. Via the mentorship of Gusty Spence, a former loyalist icon who had reactivated the UVF in 1966 but realised that such violence was counterproductive, Ervine developed his own self-critical analysis, coming to the conclusion that loyalists would have to engage meaningfully with their opponents. On his release in 1980, Ervine joined the Progressive Unionist Party (PUP), quickly making a name for himself with his articulacy and progressive vision – including support for the extension of the 1967 Abortion Act to Northern Ireland.</p>
<p>By the time of the Good Friday Agreement, Ervine was admired by the media and non-loyalists. Alongside his PUP colleague Billy Hutchinson, he was straight-talking and unafraid to challenge unionist conventions. Ervine knew an agreement would give younger generations the chance to escape the violence he had been involved in, and so – like Trimble – he <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-11121336">campaigned for the agreement</a> in the May 1998 referendum, using his charisma, humour and way with words to convince many loyalists – who might have been expected to reject the deal – to back it. The final result was a <a href="https://www.economist.com/node/131012">71.1% Yes vote</a> in favour of the agreement.</p>
<h2>Loyalism’s loss</h2>
<p>The spirit of Ervine’s leadership and willingness to tackle the more intransigent elements of unionism was exemplified on April 9, 1998, the day before the agreement was signed. Paisley’s DUP had already withdrawn from the talks, and – in a typical stunt – took over the press centre at Stormont to make their opposition clear. In an <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/Northern_Ireland.html?id=PnkYAQAAIAAJ&redir_esc=y">extraordinary moment</a>, members of Ervine’s PUP (and the Ulster Democratic Party, another small loyalist party) heckled Paisley and the DUP as they gave their “conference”. It was a remarkable moment. </p>
<p>Ervine suffered a fatal heart attack in January 2007. His funeral was attended by figures <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/6252921.stm">across the political divide</a> and helped to nudge along further talks aimed at restoring devolved power-sharing after it had broken down, which was <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/6494599.stm">finally achieved in May 2007</a>.</p>
<p>However, the loss of Ervine’s example is incalculable and loyalism has never fully recovered. On the eve of the 20th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, three loyalist paramilitary organisations issued a statement <a href="https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/loyalist-groups-condemn-all-forms-of-criminal-activity-in-joint-statement-on-eve-of-anniversary-of-agreement-36788502.html">condemning criminality</a>. But despite this, the leadership of this group, and unresolved tensions between loyalism and unionism, remain rumbling problems for Northern Ireland. </p>
<p>It remains easier to rely on old animosities, reflect ongoing divisions and disagreements, and to block your political opponent from achieving what they want to achieve, rather than actually leading people into a new dispensation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94758/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Connal Parr does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Twenty years since the Good Friday Agreement, it remains easier to rely on old animosities than lead people towards peace.Connal Parr, Vice-Chancellor's Research Fellow, Northumbria University, NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/945252018-04-10T09:55:07Z2018-04-10T09:55:07ZHow peace in Northern Ireland was reached on the basis of honourable deceptions<p>The Good Friday Agreement of April 10, 1998, is the foundation on which an uneasy peace was established in Northern Ireland. The inconvenient truth of the peace process is that peace was achieved using “honourable” deceptions, both large and small. </p>
<p>Populist idealists argue that a straight talking honest politics is possible. <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=b5o6DwAAQBAJ&lpg=PA202&ots=JReHypcoew&dq=google%20books%20timothy%20white%20northern%20ireland%20theories%20of%20international%20relations&pg=PA26#v=onepage&q=Left%20Realism&f=false">Realists</a> claim that deception and hypocrisy is an inevitable part of politics. What’s important is to be able to judge between honourable and dishonourable deceptions. </p>
<p>In Northern Ireland, the intense polarisation of the electorate between nationalists, who favoured Irish unity, and unionists who wanted to remain part of the United Kingdom, made the use of deception particularly important in achieving an accommodation.</p>
<p>Mo Mowlam, Labour’s secretary of state for Northern Ireland at the time, <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=RXaQQgAACAAJ&source=gbs_book_other_versions">pointed out</a> that the Good Friday Agreement was deliberately written to be “open to multiple interpretations”. This meant that unionists could argue that it “secured the union” while for republicans “it severely weakened it”. </p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>For more on the 20th anniversary of peace in Northern Ireland, listen to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-good-friday-agreement-in-northern-ireland-at-20-the-anthill-podcast-94610">The Anthill podcast on the Good Friday Agreement</a>.</strong></em> </p>
<hr>
<h2>Wins all round</h2>
<p>The negotiations were choreographed to climax on Good Friday – April 10, 1998 – and the symbolism of Easter was used to win support for the deal. The final week was choreographed by the two governments to give “wins” to all the pro-agreement parties in order to maximise public support.</p>
<p>The US senator, George Mitchell, chairman of the negotiations, had been given a position paper on April 5, the previous Sunday, by the British and Irish governments. They asked him to present this to the Northern Irish parties as his, rather than their, best estimate of where agreement might be achieved. </p>
<p>Mitchell realised the paper was too pro-nationalist because of its emphasis on a strong all-Ireland dimension. He later <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=LoeYDgOgud8C&lpg=PA159&dq=george%20mitchell%20As%20I%20read%20the%20document%20I%20knew%20instantly%20that%20it%20would%20not%20be%20acceptable%20to%20the%20unionists&pg=PA159#v=onepage&q=george%20mitchell%20As%20I%20read%20the%20document%20I%20knew%20instantly%20that%20it%20would%20not%20be%20acceptable%20to%20the%20unionists&f=false">wrote</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>As I read the document I knew instantly that it would not be acceptable to the unionists. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>But he went ahead with the charade and presented the “Mitchell document” as his own work.</p>
<p>This “crisis” was the cue for the Labour prime minister, Tony Blair, and the Irish Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, to fly in on April 7 and 8 respectively, and take the stage for the final days of negotiation. </p>
<p>The two governments needed to make sure the principal political parties in favour of an agreement were given a “win”, in a way that would maximise their ability to sell the deal to their particular audiences. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/good-friday-agreement-ten-key-people-who-helped-bring-about-peace-in-northern-ireland-20-years-ago-94613">Good Friday Agreement: ten key people who helped bring about peace in Northern Ireland 20 years ago</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Blair’s role was to “rescue” the process and reassure unionists that the union was safe. He rejected “Mitchell’s paper” as too <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=Tx4OAQAAMAAJ&focus=searchwithinvolume&q=the+shotgun+wedding+between+unionism+and+nationalism">pro-nationalist</a>. The Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) leader, David Trimble, was handed a unionist win. Several participants in the talks suspected choreography. Seamus Mallon, of the nationalist Social Democratic and Labour Party, was “confident” that changes to the Mitchell document “had been anticipated”. His party were given their “win” when they later secured a strong, power sharing executive. </p>
<p>Sinn Féin, the political wing of the IRA, and loyalist paramilitaries secured a “win” on the release of paramilitary prisoners. </p>
<p>The UUP rejected the agreement’s wording on decommissioning of paramilitary weapons because it did not provide strong enough assurances. At the last moment, Blair provided a “side letter” to reassure the UUP that provided ambiguous assurances on decommissioning. John Taylor MP, the “hardline” deputy leader of the UUP, declared that he was now satisfied on decommissioning and this was thought to have reassured some but not all wavering UUP sceptics. Close observers of the peace process have suggested that Taylor played the role of <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/Himself_Alone.html?id=A0E_IewkVRAC&redir_esc=y">a “shill” or plant for Trimble</a>, using his hardline reputation to win over sceptical unionists. </p>
<p>In an unscripted moment, Jeffrey Donaldson MP <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/3331805.stm">walked out</a> of the negotiations. He later joined the hardline Democratic Unionist Party, led by Ian Paisley, who had always been against the agreement. </p>
<p>Trimble later <a href="https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/david-trimble-interview-full-transcript-1-6936162">accepted</a> that he had not got strong enough wording on decommissioning in the agreement. But the alternative was for him to walk away from a deal that stood the best chance of bringing peace to Northern Ireland since the violence began in the late 1960s. </p>
<h2>Selling the deal</h2>
<p>During the referendum campaign that followed the April agreement, unionist opinion shifted against the deal when it appeared that the IRA would not have to decommission before prisoners were released or Sinn Féin sat in government. Blair suggested during the referendum campaign that the Good Friday Agreement required more than decommissioning. He famously <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057%2Fbp.2012.30">gave hand written pledges</a> that could be interpreted as suggesting that until there was decommissioning there could be no release of paramilitary prisoners or participation in government.</p>
<p>My research has shown that this was an <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07907184.2012.723623?scroll=top&needAccess=true&journalCode=fips20">“honourable deception”</a>: the prime minister had good reason to believe that without this deceit the referendum would fail, and this risked a return to a war.</p>
<p>On May 22, 1998, a referendum held in Northern Ireland endorsed the agreement, overwhelmingly among nationalists but only by a <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/Northern_Ireland.html?id=Vjh0PwAACAAJ&redir_esc=y">bare majority of unionists</a>. The first paramilitary prisoners were <a href="http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1998-09-12/news/9809120125_1_prisoners-early-releases-ulster-volunteer-force">released</a> in September 1998. In [December 1999]), Sinn Féin <a href="http://www.niassembly.gov.uk/about-the-assembly/general-information/history-of-the-assembly/">took their seats</a> in the power-sharing executive. </p>
<p>In the end, the IRA did not <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/october/23/newsid_2489000/2489099.stm">begin decommissioning</a> until October 2001, in the wake of 9/11.</p>
<p>Political actors used their “<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1467-9248.00004">theatrical skills</a>” to achieve peace in Northern Ireland. Hypocrisy was used to present different faces to different audiences. Many of these deceptions were “honourable” because, in some situations, the end does justify the means. </p>
<p>In these anti-political times it is useful to remember the positive role political actors and such theatrical skills can play in peacemaking.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94525/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Dixon is a member of the Labour Party. </span></em></p>The Good Friday Agreement was choreographed 20 years ago to maximise support for the deal.Paul Dixon, Honorary Research Fellow, Birkbeck, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/898442018-01-12T13:48:59Z2018-01-12T13:48:59ZWhy labour movements in the UK and US need to build their own ‘special relationship’<p>Most people see the so-called special relationship between Britain and the United States as a compact of states and armies, of presidents and prime ministers. They leave out another “special” relationship between the two countries – between their workers, and their unions.</p>
<p>That relationship has a long history. British emigrants in the 19th century formed many early American unions. For 200 years, British and American workers have collaborated in the creation of labour parties, in the struggles of the low paid, of women, of people of all races and of trade unionists persecuted for heeding the call to organise and strike. They have exchanged fraternal delegates to their conventions. They have swapped warm words about solidarity and justice. They have also failed to live up to those words – more than once.</p>
<p>The history of labour’s special relationship has never been more relevant. British and American workers need allies to reverse the long decline of their unions and living standards. They need help to take advantage of <a href="https://theconversation.com/modern-capitalism-has-opened-a-major-new-front-for-strike-action-logistics-89616">new opportunities in logistics</a> and other industries. They both face populist, anti-union governments – and, to resist them, the new forces associated with Jeremy Corbyn and Bernie Sanders
need to work closely together. </p>
<p>Three individuals and campaigns, from the 19th century to the present, could help British and American trade unionists to think about solving those problems today.</p>
<h2>The Morgan plan</h2>
<p>Admirers of Jeremy Corbyn and Bernie Sanders might not know of the Morgan Plan, a document drawn up in 1893 by a British-born machinist, Thomas Morgan. That plan was an 11-point programme directly inspired by the recent moves in Britain towards the <a href="https://www.wcml.org.uk/our-collections/protest-politics-and-campaigning-for-change/independent-labour-party-ilp/">Independent Labour Party</a>, a forerunner of today’s Labour Party. It called for the American Federation of Labor (AFL) to demand the nationalisation of key industries, much like British Labour’s old <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/09/clause-iv-of-labour-party-constitution-what-is-all-the-fuss-about-reinstating-it">Clause IV</a>. It also demanded that the AFL set up an American Labor Party. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201409/original/file-20180109-36009-84wl7m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201409/original/file-20180109-36009-84wl7m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=893&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201409/original/file-20180109-36009-84wl7m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=893&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201409/original/file-20180109-36009-84wl7m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=893&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201409/original/file-20180109-36009-84wl7m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1122&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201409/original/file-20180109-36009-84wl7m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1122&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201409/original/file-20180109-36009-84wl7m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1122&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Samuel Gompers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=21394509">Wikipedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If we haven’t heard of the Morgan plan, we probably recognise the means used to defeat it. Before the AFL’s 1893 convention, most affiliated unions endorsed it. Yet the federation’s president, Samuel Gompers, and his allies managed to defeat the plan and the socialists who advocated it. They did so through shrewd handling – a cosy word for manipulation – of the convention. </p>
<p>Gompers tried to dilute Morgan’s 11 planks by having the convention vote on them one by one. He then convinced enough delegates that Morgan’s programme would make enemies of the Democratic and Republican parties and mean ruin for American labour. The delegates who came pledged to support Morgan voted him down.</p>
<p>Corbynistas and Sanders supporters should not dwell on the fact that the process was rigged. They should emphasise the fact that British-American cooperation (nearly) led to an American Labor Party – in 1893! Americans who want to try that route again should learn from the Morgan plan – and its failure. Like their predecessors, they can learn from and work with their British friends.</p>
<h2>Emma Paterson</h2>
<p>Few people better sum up the potential of labour’s special relationship than Emma Paterson. Born in 1848, she became an active trade unionist before the age of 20 and served from 1872 and 1873 as secretary of the National Society for Women’s Suffrage. A trip to the United States in 1873 changed her life. While there, she saw women organising their own unions, especially in female-dominated industries.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201416/original/file-20180109-36043-5b8sut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201416/original/file-20180109-36043-5b8sut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201416/original/file-20180109-36043-5b8sut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201416/original/file-20180109-36043-5b8sut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201416/original/file-20180109-36043-5b8sut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=743&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201416/original/file-20180109-36043-5b8sut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=743&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201416/original/file-20180109-36043-5b8sut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=743&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Logo of the American National Women’s Trade Union.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikipedia</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Paterson’s feminism and trade unionism came together on her return to Britain. She called for special efforts to organise women in largely female trades, and to promote that cause, helped to set up what became the <a href="http://spartacus-educational.com/Wtu.htm">Women’s Protective and Provident League</a>, later renamed the Women’s Trade Union League. Paterson edited the Women’s Union Journal, spoke at countless meetings and picket lines, and was a tireless advocate of women as voters and as trade unionists until she died in 1886.</p>
<p>Transatlantic cooperation did not stop with her death. Activists in the British and American Women’s Trade Union Leagues maintained close ties well into the 20th century. Thanks to them, and to pioneers such as Emma Paterson, British women in the workforce are now more likely to be unionised than men, and American women nearly as likely. They show us what can be done when feminism combines with trade unionism -– and when British and American trade unionists learn from each other.</p>
<h2>Fight for $15</h2>
<p>They still do. In the past decade, in the same kinds of industries that Paterson singled out for special attention – low-paid, usually (but not only) made up mainly of women and people of colour – organising has begun in places where unions seldom existed before.</p>
<p>The most conspicuous example has been the American <a href="https://fightfor15.org/">Fight for $15</a>, a campaign that grew out of strikes by fast food workers in 2012. It now encompasses a range of service workers, from home carers to hotel cleaners and even casual university teachers. It has won political victories around its central claim: a US$15 minimum wage that workers could live on. New York, Seattle and Los Angeles, among other cities, have agreed to raise their minimum wage to $15 by the end of the decade.</p>
<p>Their example has spread elsewhere in the world. In the UK, the Bakers, Food, and Allied Workers’ Union has taken up the cause of fast food workers – and in <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-striking-mcdonalds-workers-are-taking-on-the-fast-food-giant-83260">September 2017</a>, McDonald’s workers went on strike for the first time since the company opened its first British store in 1974. Their action and their demands – union recognition, an end to zero hours contracts, and a £10 hourly wage – drew on earlier American struggles.</p>
<p>This is a perfect moment to revive labour’s special relationship. Against Donald Trump and Theresa May, we have the legacy of Thomas Morgan and Emma Paterson. I know which alternative I would rather choose.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89844/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The author is opening a public exhibition about the shared history of the British and American labour movements with the Trades Union Congress Library. It will tour the US and UK in 2018, beginning with Manchester's Working-Class Movement Library in February.</span></em></p>Labour movements on both sides of the Atlantic have a rich history that’s worth rereading now.Steven Parfitt, University Teacher in History, Loughborough UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/878322017-11-23T12:19:17Z2017-11-23T12:19:17ZNo Stone Unturned and why Irish nationalism makes for better cinema than the loyalist cause<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196134/original/file-20171123-18001-gu966j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">No Stone Unturned.</span> </figcaption></figure><p>The new film from acclaimed documentary-maker Alex Gibney, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2017/nov/12/no-stone-unturned-review-documentary-alex-gibney-northern-ireland">No Stone Unturned</a>, has been shocking audiences across the world since its release.</p>
<p>The documentary is an investigation into the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2012/oct/15/northern-ireland-loyalist-shootings-loughinisland">1994 loyalist paramilitary killing of six people</a> in a pub as they watched the Republic of Ireland play in the World Cup. The film claims to prove collusion between loyalist paramilitaries and the British state in the undertaking and cover up of the killings and names the people responsible. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/fqelW7Rhi-4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>Gibney’s decision to investigate this incident over other historic crimes, such as those committed by republican paramilitaries, has added to the oft-repeated gripe from Northern Irish unionists that their community has either been ignored or maligned by filmmakers. </p>
<p>In response to the documentary, Ben Lowry writes in the pro-unionist newspaper, <a href="http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/opinion/ben-lowry-film-world-isn-t-telling-the-other-side-of-the-story-about-ira-terror-1-8229428">The News Letter</a> saying: “There seems to be no-one out there in the film or documentary world who wants to depict the other side to this narrative.”</p>
<p>An examination of films which deal with Northern Ireland’s years of conflict suggest that there is truth in Lowry’s claim. Nationalist characters and themes are generally treated more favourably in film and appear much more frequently. So why is Irish nationalism seemingly attractive to filmmakers, and unionism not? </p>
<h2>From Noraid with love</h2>
<p>It is often suggested that the explanation for this cinematic deficit is because of <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/the-movie-stars-who-gave-money-to-sinn-f%C3%A9in-1.2126056">Hollywood funding republican propaganda</a> in the same way as <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sinn-f%C3%A9in-s-evolving-funding-stream-from-irish-america-1.2125866">Irish-America funded the IRA</a> during the conflict. Films produced by Hollywood in the 1990s certainly add weight to this assumption. </p>
<p>But since 9/11 the idea of the idealistic freedom fighter committing acts of terrorism appears to have lost its appeal – there have been no Hollywood-financed movies about the Troubles since then.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196135/original/file-20171123-17985-ko834w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196135/original/file-20171123-17985-ko834w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196135/original/file-20171123-17985-ko834w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196135/original/file-20171123-17985-ko834w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196135/original/file-20171123-17985-ko834w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196135/original/file-20171123-17985-ko834w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196135/original/file-20171123-17985-ko834w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Still from No Stone Unturned.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Fine Point Films</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is not to say that examining sources of funding cannot still provide a possible explanation. Most of the films about Northern Ireland and the Troubles have received funding from the Republic of Ireland and mainland Britain. Very few films are funded solely from sources within Northern Ireland. This significantly undermines the autonomy Northern Irish unionism and loyalism have over representations of themselves.</p>
<h2>Cry Freedom</h2>
<p>A better explanation is that the unionist position is not as easy to articulate as the nationalist position – and not as well understood universally. Unionism’s desire to remain part of the United Kingdom has failed to pique people’s interest in the same way as the nationalist desire for a united Ireland. </p>
<p>In constructing a narrative, nationalists are able to draw on parallels with national liberation movements from elsewhere in the world. In contrast, the unionist narrative is much more unique – with the only parallels ever drawn being with the <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/node/163324">unseemly apartheid South Africa</a> and the <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/dup-george-galloway-ku-klux-klan-northern-ireland-democratic-unionist-loyalist-deal-tory-government-a7809921.html">Ku Klux Klan</a>. Needless to say, both these comparisons are rejected by unionists. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196115/original/file-20171123-17982-ly0kc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196115/original/file-20171123-17982-ly0kc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196115/original/file-20171123-17982-ly0kc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196115/original/file-20171123-17982-ly0kc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196115/original/file-20171123-17982-ly0kc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196115/original/file-20171123-17982-ly0kc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196115/original/file-20171123-17982-ly0kc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Alex Gibney collecting a Peabody Award for his film Taxi to the Dark Side.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Peabody Awards via Wikimedia Commons</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But the fact remains that loyalists seem unable to articulate their position with the same confidence as republicans. So the difficulty that outsiders face when trying to articulate the unionist perspective makes it difficult to represent properly in film. The same thing would also make it difficult for loyalists to attempt to make their own films to compensate for this cinematic deficit.</p>
<p>Attempts to articulate the unionist position also tends to result in the unionist narrative being perceived as a story defending a troubled status quo. These don’t make for traditionally attractive narratives. Certainly not when compared to the republican narratives of justifiable rebellion and the underdog fighting against injustice. This sort of thing is a staple of traditional storytelling.</p>
<h2>Art is for Catholics</h2>
<p>And the fact is that unionists are not known for engaging in the arts. As playwright, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2000/apr/10/artsfeatures.northernireland">Gary Mitchell</a>, who has remained close to his unionist roots and still lives in the loyalist Rathcoole estate in north Belfast told The Guardian back in 2000: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Protestants don’t write plays, you see. You must be a Catholic or a Catholic sympathiser, or a homosexual to do that. No one in our community does that because playwriting is a silly pretend thing.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Unionists traditionally worked in manual labour – either in the linen factories or in shipbuilding, whereas nationalists have been more likely to study the arts and humanities, work in theatre and – importantly – <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=qFCgBAAAQBAJ&pg=PA210&lpg=PA210&dq#v=onepage&q&f=false">make films</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/LhObLyzld4w?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>This imbalance shows no sign of abating. Stephen Burke’s film, Maze, about the 1983 mass breakout of 38 republican prisoners from the high security Maze prison went on general release in September 2017. Another in the pipeline, H-Block, to be directed by Jim Sheridan – director of the Oscar winning, In The Name Of The Father – was postponed due to problems in securing funding, but producers are confident they will start filming in spring 2018.</p>
<p>That’s not to say there have been no films about unionists – but if you have seen one or another of 4 Days in July, Nothing Personal, Resurrection Man or T2: Trainspotting you are unlikely to come away romanced by the loyalist cause. Other films such as Five Minutes of Heaven and ‘71 offer a more empathetic portrayal of loyalist characters. Ultimately, however, these films still show the loyalist cause to be flawed, unjust and lacking in the credibility often afforded to nationalism and republicanism.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87832/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Gallagher receives funding from the Department for the Economy in Northern Ireland. </span></em></p>Why are there so few films about Northern Ireland’s unionists?Richard Gallagher, PhD Researcher in Film Studies, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/446812015-07-14T13:32:22Z2015-07-14T13:32:22ZRegular as clockwork, violence erupts in Belfast over July marches<p>Looking at the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-33516423">violence</a> that broke out in North Belfast on July 13, you could be forgiven for thinking you’d taken a quantum leap back in time by about 20 years. But the sad reality is that violence over parades is as much a part of the “new” Northern Ireland as <a href="http://www.discovernorthernireland.com/gameofthrones/">Game of Thrones</a>.</p>
<p>A 16-year old girl was injured in the fighting that broke out in Belfast, along with nine police officers, who were hit with bottles and bricks as they sought to prevent an Orange Order march from straying into a banned area.</p>
<p>This particular stretch of the Crumlin Road in North Belfast has been synonymous with parade-related violence in recent years. The Orange Order has persistently sought to march along the route to and from the annual <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-33499467">Twelfth celebrations</a>, much to the chagrin of the Nationalist residents of Ardoyne.</p>
<p>Successive <a href="https://www.paradescommission.org/">Parades Commission</a> determinations to either allow or ban the parade from proceeding along this stretch of the road provoke strong political criticism from various quarters and, as has been seen, violent discontent from a destructive minority. This year violence erupted because the parade was prohibited but in previous years it has erupted because it was not prohibited. </p>
<h2>A month of strife</h2>
<p>More than 20 years after the initial ceasefires, the issue of parading still looms large every July and at various other intervals in between. You can set your calendar by it. Some years it may be more prevalent and charged than others but every July there is violence or ill-will. Sometimes it will come in sporadic, isolated incidents, and sometimes it will be co-ordinated and sustained as was the case with the carnage that characterised the infamous <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/3041270.stm">Drumcree</a> dispute on the Garvaghy Road in Portadown. In the worst cases like Drumcree it can last for weeks.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/a-tale-of-two-cities-marching-season-in-northern-ireland-16912">Parading</a> is intertwined with culture, identity, rights, tradition and, of course, the causes of generations of conflict. So while the vast majority of parades pass off without incident, a small number are highly contentious and have the capacity to wreak havoc.</p>
<p>For Unionists, parading is seen as a legitimate and traditional expression of culture. For Nationalists, they are a triumphalist coat trailing exercise grounded in innate sectarianism and intolerance.</p>
<p>Disputes over parading at certain flash points, like the kind seen in North Belfast this time, took root around the same time as the ceasefires began to appear on the political horizon. As overt violence was being phased out for the most part, the extension of “war by other means” became discernible. And parading became the perfect battleground.</p>
<p>The importance of parading is amplified in Northern Ireland because it is a society rooted in the principles of mandatory power sharing and consociationalism – a complex political system adopted in divided societies to ensure adequate representation for diverse ethno-nationalist groups. It brings out the limits to compromise and getting a green light from the Parades Commission can be seen as a “win” for “us” at the expense of “them”.</p>
<p>To complicate matters further, huge demographic changes in Belfast mean that traditional parading routes are now home to significant numbers of people from the “other side”. These routes are no longer spaces that one group can call its own.</p>
<h2>Meta-conflict</h2>
<p>The issue of parading acts as a valve through which dissatisfaction and disillusionment with the bigger political picture in Northern Ireland can be violently vented.</p>
<p>Unionists who are cynical of the new political order riot because they think their right to cultural expression has been taken away to appease the other side. And when parades are pushed through areas against the wishes of local residents, Nationalists react violently too. They argue that allowing the marches to take place reminds them of the times of the Orange state, when the police were used to enforce the dominance of their enemies.</p>
<p>That’s not to deny that some even just embrace rioting as a recreational pastime and won’t miss an opportunity to get their kick. Flash points like the Orange march in North Belfast provide just such a venue for this kind of behaviour.</p>
<p>Parading is very similar to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/where-politicians-fail-storytellers-address-the-troubles-in-northern-ireland-33335">“dealing with the past”</a> spectre hanging over Northern Ireland – everyone knows it exists, everyone knows it needs addressing as a matter of urgency but political agreement on the matter remains elusive. </p>
<p>The issue mirrors disagreement that is grounded in the meta-conflict that continues in Northern Ireland over who is to blame for the death and destruction that results from the actual conflict.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the dispute over parading looks set to repeat itself until an overarching and inclusive approach to solving the issue at its most base level is adopted. This is not easy given that any approach must balance competing rights and interests. However to be inclusive and have weight on the ground, it must not be used as a political bargaining chip.</p>
<p>There must be genuine dialogue between those at grassroots level on both sides of the argument, where a willingness to be heard must be matched by a willingness to listen. Essentially, the only people who can resolve the dispute are those at the centre of it and whose everyday lives are affected by it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/44681/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kevin Hearty does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s marching season in Northern Ireland and tension is inevitable.Kevin Hearty, Research Fellow, Centre for Operational Police Research, University of WarwickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/406902015-05-12T09:57:44Z2015-05-12T09:57:44ZThe Confederacy’s disastrous guerrilla war<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81131/original/image-20150510-22733-1cedfo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rebel guerrillas take aim</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.loc.gov/pictures/resource/cph.3c38113/">Library of Congress </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the 150th commemoration of the end of the American Civil War draws to a close, it is worth considering why the North won. </p>
<p>A logical answer would be that numerically superior Union armies triumphed in most of the big battles and inflicted the higher casualties. After all, Shiloh, Antietam, Gettysburg, Chattanooga and Atlanta loom large in historical memory. </p>
<p>But that may be too logical an answer, and the gods of war are rarely logical. </p>
<p>It could be argued just as easily, as indeed my research has <a href="http://uncpress.unc.edu/books/T-8705.html">highlighted,</a> that the Confederates lost through miscalculation, and that their gravest error was to wage not only a failed conventional war, but also a dysfunctional guerrilla campaign.</p>
<h2>Why be a guerrilla?</h2>
<p>Tens of thousands of rabid Confederates wanted to fight as guerrillas – and at least 30,000 of them (a conservative estimate) ended up doing so. </p>
<p>No need to wait for armies to be recruited, armed, and trained. No need to endure the tedious drill and routine or restrictive regulations of military life. Simply grab a musket, hatchet or Bowie knife; then pounce.</p>
<p>Was that not, these enthusiasts asked, how such Revolutionary southern patriots as <a href="http://www.smithsonianmag.com/biography/the-swamp-fox-157330429/?no-ist">Frances Marion</a>, the “Swamp Fox,” defeated the British? Was that not how generations of southerners had defended their homesteads against marauding Indians? For people who prided themselves on their talents as woodsmen, marksmen and horsemen, it was a natural way to fight.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81132/original/image-20150510-22733-k85jfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81132/original/image-20150510-22733-k85jfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81132/original/image-20150510-22733-k85jfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81132/original/image-20150510-22733-k85jfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81132/original/image-20150510-22733-k85jfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81132/original/image-20150510-22733-k85jfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81132/original/image-20150510-22733-k85jfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81132/original/image-20150510-22733-k85jfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Morgan’s raiders - commemorated in Gainesville, Georgia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.loc.gov/pictures/item/2010720488/">Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Not a few rebels also regarded guerrilla warfare as a necessity, and for two reasons. </p>
<p>First, in the opening months of conflict, the Confederacy did not have enough conventional soldiers to confront the Federals everywhere necessary. The earliest comparative numbers show nearly 530,000 Union troops in the field by the end of 1861, compared to 260,000 Confederates. This 2:1 ratio would continue throughout the war. </p>
<p>This was especially true in the border slave states of Missouri, Kentucky and Maryland, which had remained in the Union. Only sabotage, ambushes and constant harassment could hope to disrupt, or at least slow, the Union war machine in those places. </p>
<p>Equally important, Confederates believed that irregular bands were the only way to defend their property and families against neighboring Unionists, many of whom had formed their own guerrilla companies, although in smaller numbers. </p>
<p>Consequently, communities that never saw columns of marching soldiers or heard the boom of cannons became embroiled in bitter brawls.</p>
<p>Once again, these conflicts broke out initially in the border states, but they spread quickly to any part of the South, such as Northwest Virginia or West Tennessee, where anti-Confederates (those white southerners who opposed the Confederacy, for whatever reason, including Unionists) threatened the status quo. </p>
<p>As Union armies moved ever deeper into the South, emboldened local Unionists who had earlier hesitated for safety’s sake to resist rebel rule now felt confident enough to take up arms.</p>
<p>In other words, the <a href="http://www.abc-clio.com/ABC-CLIOCorporate/product.aspx?pc=D7602C">Confederate guerrilla war</a>, rather than being part of an integrated or coordinated military strategy, was simply a collection of local defensive stands against invading Union soldiers and dangerous neighbors.</p>
<h2>Not just about the Confederacy</h2>
<p>It is worth noting, too, that many neighborhood struggles had little to do with the causes of the war.</p>
<p>Rather, they could be traced back to old political, familial or personal feuds. Perhaps someone still held a grudge over the results of a close election. Perhaps this or that person had been swindled in a business deal, cheated in a card game or diddled in a horse race. </p>
<p>In Northwest Virginia, <a href="http://uncpress.unc.edu/books/T-8705.html">for example</a>, long-time political foes faced off in rival guerrilla bands, with the pro-Union Swamp Dragoons battling the Dixie Boys, and the rebel Moccasin Rangers sworn to destroy the Snake Hunters. In North Carolina, a man was bushwhacked while plowing his field because of a family feud that began over opposition to a marriage. Oftentimes, no one was quite sure what had started the quarrel, only that people had “grudges against some neighbor,” as a Southwest Virginia woman recalled. </p>
<p>The shadows of war provided an opportunity for aggrieved parties to seek revenge. In any event, the essence of these conflicts was defense of hearth and home. They were civil wars, social wars, wars for survival, but not conscious efforts to preserve the Union or win Confederate independence.</p>
<p>All this posed a dilemma for the Confederate government, which, despite the potential danger of these internal divisions, appreciated the usefulness of independent guerrilla bands willing to confront the Union army. </p>
<p>Just weeks after the start of the war, the governor of Virginia and his chief military advisor <a href="http://uncpress.unc.edu/books/T-8705.html">agreed</a> that where the “organized forces” of the army proved inadequate, they would rely on “the bold hearts and strong arms of a united people, to make each house a citadel, and every rock and tree positions of defense.” A year later, General Thomas C. Hindman called on the citizens of Arkansas to attack the Union invader “day and night,” to “kill his scouts and pickets, kill his pilots and his troops on transports, cut off his wagon trains … shoot his mounted officers.” </p>
<p>Unfortunately, the longer the general war continued, the more often the guerrilla war became a means to suppress or punish dissenters. A captured guerrilla, tried by a military commission for murder, justified hanging his victim by saying he wanted “to see one union man shit his last dieing turd.” A gang of rebels, after plundering a Unionist home, left the husband and father lying in the road, his body riddled by bullets, “his head and face … all shot to pieces.”</p>
<p>As such, the guerrilla war soon spun out of control. A degree of vigilante justice often tarnished rebel actions. </p>
<p>Then, too, thieves and outlaws notorious in their communities, seeing a chance for plunder, claimed the mantle of either the Union or Confederacy to exploit the disorder. </p>
<p>A Confederate <a href="http://uncpress.unc.edu/books/T-8705.html">summed up</a> the situation in early 1862 this way: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“It is an old saying … that the Devil is fond of fishing in muddy waters, and as soon as war stirred up the mud of confusion you see devils turn out in droves like avenging Wolves.”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>The response of the generals - first Confederate, then Unionist</h2>
<p>When Confederate officials finally tried to organize their guerrilla fighters into formal military units, called <a href="http://uncpress.unc.edu/books/T-8705.html">Partisan Rangers,</a> and ordered them to follow army rules, regulations and directives, it was too late. </p>
<p>Few independent guerrilla bands were willing to sacrifice their freedom of movement or leave their communities to the mercy of the enemy. As a result, the chaos <a href="https://kuecprd.ku.edu/%7Eupress/cgi-bin/series/modern-war-studies/978-0-7006-1668-8.html">intensified</a> and expanded.</p>
<p>A Missouri woman summarized the situation by lamenting in 1864, “Our country is desolate, indeed almost entirely a wilderness. Our farms are all burned up, fences gone, crops destroyed, and no one escapes the ravages of one party or the other.” At the same time, a Tennessean feared that the “protracted guerrilla war” threatened to “make one vast Missouri” of the entire South. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81130/original/image-20150510-22765-vut0xh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81130/original/image-20150510-22765-vut0xh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81130/original/image-20150510-22765-vut0xh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81130/original/image-20150510-22765-vut0xh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81130/original/image-20150510-22765-vut0xh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81130/original/image-20150510-22765-vut0xh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81130/original/image-20150510-22765-vut0xh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81130/original/image-20150510-22765-vut0xh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The destruction of Lawrence, Kansas by rebel guerrillas in 1863.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.loc.gov/pictures/resource/cph.3c34452/">Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At the same time, in order to protect its own soldiers and loyal citizens against this “uncivilized” brand of warfare, the US government retaliated. </p>
<p>Captured guerrillas, if not executed on the spot, were tried by military commissions as brigands, murderers or outlaws. </p>
<p>Their civilian supporters were subject to monetary fines, confiscation of property, arrest or banishment. On occasion, when the roots of treason ran too deep, plantations and entire communities were either shelled or put to the torch.</p>
<p>The retaliation, danger and uncertainty finally took their toll. </p>
<p>Noncombatants who had suffered either directly from guerrilla violence or indirectly through federal retaliation gave up trying to win the war. One Arkansas woman who had concluded that her state was hopelessly “full of bad men to burn, plunder, and rob” said that she would even welcome Union occupation, “anything for Peace and established Laws again.” </p>
<p>Brighter news from the conventional battlefields might have buoyed their spirits, but even that steadily declining prospect could not sustain people who had been turned out of their houses, denied the means of subsistence or numbed by the sight of unarmed neighbors being shot, hanged or tortured while plumes of smoke from burning homesteads pierced the horizon. </p>
<p>It did not matter that most Confederate soldiers remained confident of victory, although the army also had its share of deserters.</p>
<p>Too many citizens had lost the will to fight. They wished only for the return of law and order, for quietude, for the restoration of civilization: things that had been denied them by the unforgiving ferocity of a guerrilla war run amok.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/40690/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel E Sutherland receives funding from National Endowment for the Humanities.</span></em></p>Why did the North win the Civil War 150 years ago? It could be argued that it was the Confederates who lost through such grave errors as the backing of a ferocious guerrilla campaign.Daniel E Sutherland, Distinguished Professor of History , University of ArkansasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/399212015-04-16T20:25:36Z2015-04-16T20:25:36ZChina’s growing labour movement offers hope for workers globally<p>The growing labour movement in China, as fragmented and repressed as it is, offers hope for workers everywhere as an example of organising and protecting themselves against incredible odds.</p>
<p>Independent labour organising and independent trade unions are banned and workers do not have the legal right to strike. But millions of workers have organised autonomously and staged “wildcat”, or unofficial, strikes, with the main union charged with representing Chinese workers either absent or side-lined in recent industrial actions.</p>
<p>In fact, Chinese workers most often organise without any help from the main Chinese union: the powerful All-China Federation of Trade Unions.</p>
<h2>The world’s largest trade union</h2>
<p>Founded on May Day 1925, the All-China Federation of Trade Unions (ACFTU) is the only legal trade union federation in China and, with a membership of 280 million in 2014, the world’s largest. </p>
<p>ACFTU branches are compulsory and union membership automatic in many companies. This inflates its membership, even though many branches exist without the awareness of employees. And “members” don’t exercise any democratic control over ACFTU affiliates. In fact, the ACFTU serves mainly as an extension of the Chinese state, which appoints the union’s top leadership. Its provincial and municipal leaders also simultaneously retain government positions. Hardly any union leader has prior experience of labour organising. </p>
<p>The international labour movement is divided over whether or not to engage with the ACTFU, with some activists insisting dialogue with the union must remain open. But a closer examination of recent events in China suggests that there is very little chance that the ACFTU can be reformed. To understand why, we need to appreciate the transformation of the Chinese working class.</p>
<h2>From work units to wildcat strikes</h2>
<p>In the Mao era from 1949 to late 1970s, workers were organised into work-units, which provided education, housing and pensions to workers and their families. Many workers were entitled to lifetime employment. They were not won by the union, which acted to distribute benefits and encourage production. Disparities still existed and workers organised protests by themselves, most notably by apprentices and temporary workers during the Great Leap Forward of 1956-1957 and again at the height of the Cultural Revolution of 1966-1967. </p>
<p>China’s embrace of market reforms since the late 1970s has thoroughly transformed conditions for workers. As the reforms gradually dismantled the welfare regime of the work-units and opened up the private sector for domestic and foreign investment, workers were left largely to fend for themselves.</p>
<p>However, the ACFTU failed to protect state-sector workers from mass redundancy and migrant workers from low wages, excessive overtime and employment insecurity. Private companies routinely ignored labour regulations, and industrial accidents were commonplace. As a result, labour disputes shot up dramatically in the 1990s.</p>
<p>In response, the government introduced a series of new laws to channel workers’ grievances but their implementation remains limited and uneven.</p>
<p>The ACFTU has come under considerable pressure to reform. In the last two decades, it has begun to experiment with collective consultation and unionisation of the private sector. One well-known case is the unionisation of Chinese Walmart workers, which was initiated by workers but aided by the ACFTU. However, it has proved to be mainly about manoeuvring against foreign companies than a genuine desire to change the poorly paid and highly insecure employment conditions of Walmart workers. </p>
<p>In the end, these efforts have been shown as half-hearted and ineffective. They have not strengthened workers’ collective interests or made the ACFTU more relevant to the Chinese workers.</p>
<p>Independent labour organising and independent trade unions are banned and workers do not have the legal right to strike. Despite the bans, workers have held “wildcat” or unofficial strikes, without any involvement from the ACFTU.</p>
<p>In May 2010, 2000 workers at Honda auto part suppliers went on a strike for higher wages, better conditions and a union election. The initial strike shut down all four of Honda’s assembly plants in China, and triggered more than 100 secondary strikes in nearby plants. The workers won huge wage rises despite the plant union openly supporting management.</p>
<p>At Foxconn in 2010, more than a dozen workers attempted suicide by jumping off the windows of their dormitory. While exploitation of migrant workers is well known, the suicide of so many workers still shocked the public. Subsequently, workers at several Foxconn plants went on strike on their own over conditions. But, again, the ACFTU played very little role in this process.</p>
<p>Recently, another huge strike took place at Yue Yuen, the largest shoe manufacturer in the world, in the city of Dongguan. In 2014, about 40,000 workers demanded higher pay and better pension contributions for their retirement. Again, the trade unions were absent. </p>
<p>It is worth pointing out that municipal and provincial affiliates of the ACFTU did sometimes step in during a strike to help bring about a speedy resolution by mediating between employers and striking workers in negotiations. But once the strike was settled, the union affiliates quickly withdrew from the factory, with strike-leaders left unprotected and usually dismissed.</p>
<h2>Economic downturn</h2>
<p>Although it is still too politically risky to organise independent trade unions, labour activists have forged informal networks and accumulated organising experience over the years, especially in the large industrial zones. The activists are aided by China’s labour non-government organisations (NGOs), many of which emerged in the 1990s.</p>
<p>The growing strike activities have taken place during a rapidly growing period, where industrial employment is abundant and the unemployment rate very low. However, the Chinese economy has begun to slow down since the Global Financial Crisis, and last year recorded the lowest rate since early 1990s. Workers face an increasingly uncertain future in a slowing economy, and a difficult political environment that constrains their organising capacities. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, this has not deterred workers from taking collective actions, as evident in the rise of strikes in 2014 and 2015. The labour movement is gaining pace China, against all odds.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This is part of an ongoing series on the waning power of Organized Labor. <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/labor-power">Click here</a> to see other articles in the series, which culminates on May 1, International Workers’ day.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39921/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The growing labour movement in China, as fragmented and repressed as it is, offers hope for workers everywhere as an example of organising against incredible odds.Tom Barnes, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Institute for Religion, Politics and Society, Australian Catholic UniversityKevin Lin, PhD Candidate, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/290542014-07-10T11:41:54Z2014-07-10T11:41:54ZPublic sector strike whets appetite for union-busting in Westminster<p>As the trade unions embark on <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28240683">another co-ordinated day of action</a> they could soon be embroiled in another battle. The government <a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/education/article4143500.ece">is adopting a harder line</a> through plans to bolster the law on industrial action ballots in what they deem to be “essential services”. </p>
<p>If the government gets its way, there will need to be a minimum turnout in the ballot for action to be lawful, and ballots would have a limited period of validity. </p>
<p>What is surprising is the timing of the announcement. Could it be this is the start of the Conservative election campaign proper? Is it an attempt to attract the voters who have shifted their allegiance, albeit temporarily, to UKIP?</p>
<h2>Low turnouts</h2>
<p>It might be argued the public sector unions have brought this upon themselves by calling a series of strikes based on ballots with low turnouts. In an <a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/publicsector/article3237808.ece">opinion column in The Times</a> as far back as November 2011, I questioned the legitimacy of industrial action called after low-turnout ballots. </p>
<p>Over the past three years or so a number of public sector strikes have been called after ballots with turnouts of below 40%. In 2011 Unison <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2011/nov/03/unison-vote-for-pensions-strike">achieved a turnout of just 29%</a> when it took action over pension reforms. Earlier this year the turnout in the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21661083">PCS ballot was 28%</a> and a <a href="https://theconversation.com/both-boris-and-unions-are-wrong-on-tube-strikes-20865">series of strikes by the RMT on the London Underground</a> were held after votes with similar low turnouts. This is in stark contrast to the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12882499">British Airways cabin crew strike</a> which saw turnouts of 80%.</p>
<p>The stumbling block for the government is the classification of what is an essential service. This is not something that can be plucked from the air for convenience. The main guide as to what is services are essential is defined by the <a href="http://www.ilo.org/global/standards/information-resources-and-publications/publications/WCMS_087987/lang--en/index.htm">ILO Principles Concerning the Right to Strike</a> as services where: “the interruption of which would endanger the life, personal safety or health of the whole or part of the population”. </p>
<p>In the strict sense essential services are defined as “the hospital sector, electricity services, water supply services, the telephone service, air traffic control”. They don’t include education or general or metropolitan transport, but probably would include the fire and rescue service.</p>
<h2>Minimum thresholds</h2>
<p>For many months I have been predicting the Conservatives will change the law on strikes by requiring minimum thresholds participating in ballots. In Early May, speaking in Stroud, Gloucestershire, <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2624789/David-Cameron-pledges-curb-strikes-essential-services-wins-election.html">David Cameron suggested</a> this “could” be in the party’s next election manifesto. Now, after announcements this week by by the prime minister and Frances Maude, we know it will be. The prime minister is thought to favour Boris Johnson’s proposal that at least 50% of those entitled to vote do so over the <a href="http://www.managementtoday.co.uk/bulletin/mtdailybulletin/article/1032632/boris-cbi-call-extra-strike-busting-measures/">CBI’s call for a 40% threshold</a>. </p>
<p>Requiring a minimum turnout in a ballot of 40% or 50% may not go far enough for Cameron and Maude, hence the lack of detail at this stage. I believe they will consider a more radical stance. Let’s assume that 51% of members do participate in a ballot and there is 51% majority in favour of action, this still means that just over a quarter of the affected workforce support industrial action and the majority don’t. </p>
<p>The manifesto could well contain more stringent requirements; it is not inconceivable they will require a majority of those entitled to vote to support industrial action. That’s a different thing altogether and for many unions it would make industrial action virtually impossible. There are some who might consider this a good thing, but it would remove the strike as a legitimate “last-resort” safety valve. </p>
<h2>Time limit</h2>
<p>Introducing ballot validity periods should come as no surprise either. Although for a strike to be lawful the first day of action must <a href="http://www.safeworkers.co.uk/onstrike.html">take place within 28 days</a> of the ballot, once this criterion is satisfied the ballot is valid without a time limit. There were many complaints about members of the NUT taking strike action based on ballot results over two years old. Although they did nothing wrong legally, there is a moral argument to be made – and this will not have gone unnoticed by the government. </p>
<p>There is no doubt the unions have a problem in getting decent turnouts in industrial action ballots and, as a result, open themselves up to criticism. Turnouts of 20, 30 or 40% can hardly be considered a mandate for action. If they are to overcome the thresholds that are likely to be introduced, they need to find ways of mobilising the apathetic membership. </p>
<p>These proposals could be the stimulus the unions need to do that. If participation in ballots increases to the required level, any action that results must be considered legitimate. I’m not sure how the government or employers would deal with that. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/29054/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alf Crossman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As the trade unions embark on another co-ordinated day of action they could soon be embroiled in another battle. The government is adopting a harder line through plans to bolster the law on industrial…Alf Crossman, Senior Lecturer in Industrial Relations and HRM, University of SurreyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/217192014-01-03T13:27:15Z2014-01-03T13:27:15ZNorthern Ireland talks stumble over symbols of past troubles<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/38467/original/59zvsfyx-1388751766.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">No surrender?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> Niall Carson/PA Wire</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It is groundhog day in Northern Ireland. We have just witnessed another extraordinary investment of time and energy in attempting to reach agreement between the opposing factions. But despite the expertise of <a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/diplomat-richard-haass-to-lead-talks-on-bridging-divides-in-northern-ireland-29408204.html">Richard Haass</a>, <a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/debateni/blogs/liam-clarke/meghan-osullivan-richard-haass-righthand-woman-keen-to-work-at-coalface-29429167.html">Meghan O’Sullivan</a>, the time and engagement of local politicians and the cost to the taxpayers, no agreement has been reached.</p>
<p>The talks, which commenced in July, covered a range of issues from including unsolved killings during the Troubles, the route of loyalist parades and the flying of national flags. It is the last two issues, parades and flags, which have been the main sticking points. These are issues related to identity, specifically Unionist and Loyalist identity, both of which have stimulated particularly unedifying recent scenes of street violence.</p>
<p>The talks ended on New Year’s Eve without a substantive agreement, but a <a href="http://www.northernireland.gov.uk/haass.pdf">39-page document</a> was subsequently released which gives us some clues as to the sticking points.</p>
<h2>Flagging future problems</h2>
<p>There is a degree of agreement on how to manage the unresolved issues arising from a lack of prosecutions for past killings, and other outstanding justice and truth issues. The deal proposes a form of truth and reconciliation which would offer limited immunity for those coming forward with information about killings and injuries during The Troubles. Information would be gathered by a “Commission for Information Retrieval” and an(other) archive of accounts is to be created. So far so good. </p>
<p>There was no agreement, however, on parades and flags.</p>
<p>According to the Parades Commission’s latest annual report, there were 4,182 parades in Northern Ireland in the 12 months to June 2012, up from 3,962 the previous year. But only 213 of these parades were considered to be “contentious”. Of these “contentious” parades, 31% attracted some form of restriction. The majority of parades in general, and contentious parades in particular, are run by Orange or Loyalist orders.</p>
<p>When it comes to restricting or banning marches, the organisers claim the right to march under Article 10 of the European Convention on Human Rights: the right to freedom of expression, Article 11, the right to assemble and Article 9 the freedom of thought and religion. Meanwhile those who do not want marches to pass through their area claim the right to prevent them under Article 8, the right to privacy and freedom of movement. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/38466/original/kb2zwsf7-1388750841.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/38466/original/kb2zwsf7-1388750841.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/38466/original/kb2zwsf7-1388750841.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/38466/original/kb2zwsf7-1388750841.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/38466/original/kb2zwsf7-1388750841.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/38466/original/kb2zwsf7-1388750841.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/38466/original/kb2zwsf7-1388750841.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/38466/original/kb2zwsf7-1388750841.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Out of every heartache a declaration: Richard Haass and Meghan O'Sullivan,</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source"> Paul Faith/PA Wire</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The draft agreement proposes the devolution of powers relating to parades to an independent Authority for Public Events Adjudication which would determine any permissions or restrictions relating to marches and parades. Contentious within that body’s remit would be the banning of paramilitary uniforms and “a rejection of marks or music referring to proscribed organisations past or present”. One worries that this is a Parades Commission by another name,likely to encounter the same hurdles as that Commission. </p>
<p>One of the most obvious “marks” of identity in Northern Ireland are, of course, flags, another sticking point in the agreement. The question of whether or not to fly the Union Flag was the catalyst for violent protest last year after Belfast Council, with its Nationalist majority, voted to limit the days that the Union Flag should fly from Belfast City Hall. </p>
<p>Predictably this decision was opposed by the unionist councillors and outraged Loyalists who took to the streets. It was on the back of the continuing unrest and protests that the Haass-O’Sullivan talks were instituted.</p>
<p>Flag flying is symbolic of the divisions in Northern Ireland and the debacle in Belfast City Council has added fuel to the flames. For this reason, efforts to stop the flying of paramilitary flags were part of the peace-building process and a <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/nisr/2000/347/contents/made">Protocol</a> on flag flying was developed by legislation in 2000. A <a href="http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/images/symbols/bryan0510.pdf">survey in 2010</a> showed concluded that efforts to reduce the number of flags flown in Unionist communities have largely failed.</p>
<p>It is tempting to conclude that the reason for failure to reach agreement in these latest talks is Unionist and Loyalist intransigence, since it is clear that it was not a case the parties in the talks could not agree. Rather, it was a case that the Unionist parties could not agree among themselves.</p>
<h2>No surrender, no compromise?</h2>
<p>For Unionists and Loyalists, the peace process has always been fraught with difficulties – accounts by George Mitchell and Alastair Campbell both highlight how Unionists required the most persuasion, how they resented that the peace process meant Tony Blair shaking the hand of Sinn Fein leader – and former IRA officer – Gerry Adams. Many Loyalists are outraged that former IRA quartermaster Martin McGuinness is now deputy first minister in the <a href="http://www.northernireland.gov.uk/index/your-executive/ministers-and-their-departments.htm">Northern Ireland Executive</a>.</p>
<p>Prior to the agreement, police and local regiments of the army who were at the forefront of fighting the IRA, were drawn almost exclusively from the Unionist and Loyalist community, and were IRA targets. So it is hardly surprising that for some unionists, the route to peace was seen as being best achieved not by negotiation, but by defeating terrorism. Negotiation was “selling out”.</p>
<p>Now, as the main Unionist party, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has the same problem – how to prevent an agreement from being seen as selling out. First minister, DUP leader Peter Robinson says he does not recognise the reports of “talks failure” but stresses than any agreement must consider “how the problems identified by others can be accommodated in a way that does no injury to our own deeply held positions”.</p>
<p>Robinson’s DUP was the party that overtook the Ulster Unionist Party, led by Trimble, following the signing of the 1998 Agreement when the Ulster Unionists lost ground after their part in the agreement was seen as a sell-out. Now, as far as Unionists and Loyalists are concerned, it is their parades and their flags that are under attack in any compromise that leads to an agreement.</p>
<p>Can Unionist and Loyalist leaders sell a compromise? To attempt to do so is risky, it is to take on the hardliners within Loyalism. It is to provide the enemies on your own side with sufficient ammunition to destroy you, to facilitate their branding you as a traitor. In the past, this has been to take the well-trodden route to electoral failure. Following in the footsteps of Terence O’Neill, David Trimble and other Unionist leaders who strayed towards the middle ground, it is akin to turkeys voting for Christmas.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/21719/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marie Breen-Smyth received a 25,000 grant in 2011 to research the needs of injured people in Northern Ireland, through the Wave Trauma Centre but the money came from the Office of the First and Deputy First Minister for Northern Ireland.</span></em></p>It is groundhog day in Northern Ireland. We have just witnessed another extraordinary investment of time and energy in attempting to reach agreement between the opposing factions. But despite the expertise…Marie Breen-Smyth, Chair in International Politics, Associate Dean International , University of SurreyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.