tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/articlesThe Conversation – Articles (US)2024-03-18T17:38:17Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2253442024-03-18T17:38:17Z2024-03-18T17:38:17ZDonor-advised funds: US regulators are scrambling to catch up with the boom in these charitable giving accounts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582340/original/file-20240316-18-84zsoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C817%2C4767%2C3172&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">DAFs more or less operate as a mini foundation.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/golden-piggy-bank-and-golden-coins-3d-render-royalty-free-image/1484749250?adppopup=true">Wong Yu Liang/Moment via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://www.philanthropy.com/article/a-short-history-of-the-fast-and-furious-rise-of-dafs">revolution in charitable giving</a> is underway due to the growth of donor-advised funds in the United States.</p>
<p>Known widely as DAFs, these <a href="https://www.nptrust.org/what-is-a-donor-advised-fund/">financial accounts are designated for charitable giving</a>. Donors can get an immediate tax deduction by putting money or other assets into the accounts, and advise the accounts’ managers to give away the money at a later date.</p>
<p>After years of concerns about how quickly the money reserved for charity gets distributed and whether donor-advised funds need to operate more transparently, <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2023/11/14/2023-24982/taxes-on-taxable-distributions-from-donor-advised-funds-under-section-4966">proposed new federal regulations</a> are now pending. Though the regulations would not create new requirements for how rapidly these funds distribute money, they do provide some new guidelines for what <a href="https://www.nptrust.org/what-is-a-donor-advised-fund/grantmaking-rules/">uses for DAFs are allowed</a> by law.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://fisher.osu.edu/people/mittendorf.3">an accounting researcher</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/donor-advised-funds-charities-with-benefits-74516">who studies DAFs</a>, I believe these new changes may mark the start of what could become a series of reforms.</p>
<h2>Nearly $230 billion</h2>
<p>DAFs have been <a href="https://cof.org/sites/default/files/documents/files/DAF-timeline.pdf">around since the 1930s</a> but got off to a slow start. After decades of being concentrated in community foundations, DAFs became more widely accessible with the introduction of <a href="https://www.investmentnews.com/industry-news/news/fidelity-charitable-reveals-record-year-in-philanthropic-giving-249461">Fidelity Charitable</a> – a DAF-sponsoring organization tied to Fidelity Investments – in 1991.</p>
<p>Many more DAF sponsors <a href="https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2023/07/20/5b-in-giving-shows-rapid-rise-of-donor-advised-funds-schwab-charitable/">connected to investment companies</a> have since emerged. </p>
<p>Because donors <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/managing-wealth/080216/donoradvised-funds-benefits-and-drawbacks.asp">get tax breaks when they put money in them</a> and can then wait a long time before distributing it to nonprofits, DAFs essentially operate as <a href="https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/should-congress-curb-donor-advised-funds">streamlined foundations</a>.</p>
<p>DAFs are not, however, subject to the same restrictions.</p>
<p>Foundations have to disclose their donors to the public and also have to distribute minimum amounts for charitable use each year. <a href="https://www.givedirectly.org/donor-advised-funds/">DAFs face</a> <a href="https://www.philanthropyroundtable.org/behind-the-debate-examining-the-measures-of-daf-payout/">neither requirement</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://philanthropynewsdigest.org/news/daf-grants-to-charities-totaled-52-billion-in-2022-report-finds">DAFs held nearly US$230 billion in assets by the end of 2022</a> and distributed some $52 billion to charities that year. Those are significant sums as giving of all kinds <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-charitable-donations-fell-to-499-billion-in-2022-as-stocks-slumped-and-inflation-surged-207688">totaled about $500 billion that year</a>.</p>
<p>As of 2023 there were about <a href="https://www.nptrust.org/reports/daf-report/">2 million donor-advised funds</a>, according to the National Philanthropic Trust.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582341/original/file-20240316-22-v60hk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Set of diverse hands and payment methods. Arms with cash, credit cards, banknotes, wallet, putting coins into piggy bank. Hand drawn vector illustration isolated on light background, flat cartoon style." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582341/original/file-20240316-22-v60hk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582341/original/file-20240316-22-v60hk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582341/original/file-20240316-22-v60hk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582341/original/file-20240316-22-v60hk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582341/original/file-20240316-22-v60hk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582341/original/file-20240316-22-v60hk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582341/original/file-20240316-22-v60hk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">There are few DAF regulations in place, but that could soon change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/set-of-diverse-hands-and-payment-methods-royalty-free-illustration/1491990624?adppopup=true">Olena Zagoruyko/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>40% don’t distribute a dime</h2>
<p>Critics of DAFs say that the government should require them to <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/2019/7/25/8891899/john-arnold-billionaire-criticism-donor-advised-funds-silicon-valley-philanthropic-loophole">regularly disburse at least some of their charitable funds</a>.</p>
<p>Foundations have faced that kind of obligation for more than five decades. They must pay out at least <a href="https://www.nptrust.org/donor-advised-funds/daf-vs-foundation/">5% of their assets</a> each year – although some of that money can be used to pay for their operations or even be set aside in a donor-advised fund.</p>
<p>Supporters of DAFs counter that the payout rate for those accounts is already much higher than the foundation floor of 5%. It <a href="https://www.givechariot.com/post/breaking-down-the-donor-advised-fund-market-in-2022">hovers around 20%</a>.</p>
<p>However, that statistic applies to all the money held in DAFs, not what happens with each one of them. <a href="https://johnsoncenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/DAFRC_Executive_Summary_Key_Findings.pdf">And almost 40% of them don’t distribute any money at all</a> in a given year. </p>
<h2>Calling for change</h2>
<p>Other changes have been proposed over the years, including:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="https://inequality.org/great-divide/private-foundations-dafs-2021/">Not letting foundations count money they put in a DAF</a> toward their annual 5% payout requirement.</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.philanthropy.com/article/an-unlikely-event-the-israel-hamas-war-could-finally-spark-daf-reform">Introducing new disclosure requirements</a> because currently the public, the charity that gets money from a DAF and even the IRS have <a href="https://apnews.com/article/silent-donor-tim-sanders-daf-privacy-9e499583181ed0c8b7d6685fbea31ecb">no way of knowing</a> for sure who originally provided those funds.</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.philanthropy.com/article/donor-advised-funds-let-wall-street-steer-charitable-donations/">Reining in</a> the <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/the-wall-street-takeover-of-charity">commercial investment companies</a> that have been at the center of much of the growth in DAFs, by limiting the fees they can earn or <a href="https://ssir.org/articles/entry/the_problem_with_donor_advised_fundsand_a_solution">restricting the ties</a> between them and their affiliated charities.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>IRS regulations</h2>
<p>The IRS released <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2023/11/14/2023-24982/taxes-on-taxable-distributions-from-donor-advised-funds-under-section-4966">proposed new DAF regulations</a> at the end of 2023, and gave the <a href="https://www.regulations.gov/document/IRS-2023-0053-0001/comment">public an opportunity comment</a> on them.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.philanthropy.com/article/proposed-irs-regulations-of-donor-advised-funds-fall-short-critics-say">proposed regulations</a> <a href="https://nonprofitlawblog.com/proposed-donor-advised-fund-regulations-what-is-a-donor-advised-fund/">would clarify what constitutes a DAF</a>, who is considered a fund’s adviser, and restrictions on DAF disbursements.</p>
<p>Though largely focused on definitions, these proposed regulations are not without teeth. Nor <a href="https://www.philanthropy.com/article/proposed-irs-regulations-of-donor-advised-funds-fall-short-critics-say">have they been immune to controversy</a>.</p>
<p>The proposed regulations would identify certain distributions as taxable and declare that donors are not the only parties considered DAF advisers – the <a href="https://www.mcguirewoods.com/client-resources/alerts/2024/2/donor-advised-funds-proposed-regulations/">donors’ personal financial advisers</a> are, too. This means the financial advisers, like donors, cannot receive any benefits from a DAF.</p>
<p>In identifying taxable distributions, the regulations include the possibility that funds used to support <a href="https://www.taxnotes.com/research/federal/other-documents/public-comments-regulations/nonprofits-group-targets-trouble-spots-donor-advised-fund-regs/7j6vy#7j6vy-0000011">lobbying or activities tied to political campaigns</a> could lead to penalties for both the donor and the fund’s manager. And <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4744533">evidence suggests</a> DAFs are commonly used to support lobbying.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.mossadams.com/articles/2024/01/proposed-regulations-on-donor-advised-funds">tax would be levied on the DAF totaling 20% of the distribution and another 5%</a> charged to a participating fund manager.</p>
<p>By including <a href="https://www.investmentnews.com/regulation-and-legislation/news/industry-awaits-an-answer-on-proposed-donor-advised-fund-regulations-250293">a donor’s personal financial adviser</a> in the group considered advisers to the DAF, investment fees paid to such financial advisers for their services would become <a href="https://www.cadwalader.com/brass-tax/index.php?nid=79&eid=336">impermissible “excess benefit” transactions</a>. As such, the proposed new rules would require the <a href="https://www.mcguirewoods.com/client-resources/alerts/2024/2/donor-advised-funds-proposed-regulations/">repayment of their compensation plus a 25% penalty</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.philanthropyroundtable.org/roundtable-submits-comment-letter-on-proposed-rules-for-donor-advised-funds/">Some DAF proponents</a> have objected to the proposed regulations. A key concern they’ve expressed has to do with what the regulations could mean for <a href="https://www.sifma.org/resources/submissions/irs-proposed-rule-taxes-on-taxable-distributions-from-donor-advised-funds/">financial advisers</a>. </p>
<p>Since financial advisers often oversee investments of both the donor and the donor’s charitable funds, such dual advisory roles may be eliminated by the threat of penalties. </p>
<h2>Changes possible in Congress</h2>
<p>Additional, bigger, changes could occur in the near future through legislation.</p>
<p>Possibilities include requiring DAFs to disclose donors and connect them with distributions so <a href="https://www.philanthropy.com/article/an-unlikely-event-the-israel-hamas-war-could-finally-spark-daf-reform">the public can follow the money</a> or <a href="https://acceleratecharitablegiving.org/reforms/">delaying tax benefits</a> when donations to DAFs are not immediately distributed to charities to encourage donors with DAFs to dispatch their gifts quickly.</p>
<p>Although legislation aimed at requiring faster payouts was <a href="https://nonprofitquarterly.org/do-donor-advised-funds-require-regulatory-attention/">first proposed in 2014</a>, few lawmakers have made it a priority.</p>
<p>The most recent bill, the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/legalindustry/ace-act-legislation-would-significantly-affect-donor-advised-funds-2021-11-11/">Accelerating Charitable Efforts Act</a>, was first proposed by <a href="https://www.king.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/king-grassley-introduce-legislation-to-ensure-charitable-donations-reach-working-charities">Sens. Angus King and Chuck Grassley</a> in 2021. It did not <a href="https://www.investmentnews.com/industry-news/news/daf-payout-bill-stalls-in-congress-229779">amass enough support</a> to garner a vote. At this point, it is <a href="https://inequality.org/research/donor-advised-fund-blocking-reform/">unclear whether the lawmakers will reintroduce</a> that measure.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://blog.candid.org/post/donor-advised-funds-daf-growth-popularity-in-philanthropy/">as DAFs play an ever larger</a> role in charitable giving, I believe that Congress will eventually have to take action if it wants to meaningfully regulate this new charitable environment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225344/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brian Mittendorf does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Big changes would require an act of Congress but lawmakers have not stepped up. And there’s been pushback against new rules the IRS has proposed for these accounts reserved for giving.Brian Mittendorf, Professor of Accounting, The Ohio State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2259542024-03-18T14:31:13Z2024-03-18T14:31:13ZProfits over patients: For-profit nursing home chains are draining resources from care while shifting huge sums to owners’ pockets<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582294/original/file-20240315-20-7m2n83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C17%2C6000%2C3907&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The for-profit nursing home sector is growing, and it places a premium on cost cutting and big profits, which has led to low staffing and patient neglect and mistreatment.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/february-2024-baden-w%C3%BCrttemberg-na-a-resident-of-a-nursing-news-photo/1985540302">picture alliance via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The care at Landmark of Louisville Rehabilitation and Nursing was abysmal when state inspectors filed their survey report of the Kentucky facility on July 3, 2021.</p>
<p>Residents <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24170104-landmark-nursing-070321#document/p72/a2407365">wandered the halls</a> in a facility that can house up to 250 people, yelling at each other and stealing blankets. One resident beat a roommate <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24170104-landmark-nursing-070321#document/p66/a2407364">with a stick</a>, causing bruising and skin tears. Another was found in bed with a broken finger and a bloody forehead <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24170104-landmark-nursing-070321#document/p55/a2407366">gash</a>. That person was allowed to roam and enter the beds of other residents. In another case, there was <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24170104-landmark-nursing-070321#document/p21/a2407367">sexual touching</a> in the dayroom between residents, according to the report.</p>
<p>Meals were served from filthy meal carts on plastic foam trays, and residents struggled to cut their food with dull plastic cutlery. Broken tiles lined showers, and a mysterious black gunk marred the floors. The director of housekeeping reported that the dining room was unsanitary. Overall, there was a critical lack of training, staff and <a href="https://projects.propublica.org/nursing-homes/homes/h-185122">supervision</a>.</p>
<p>The inspectors tagged Landmark as <a href="https://medicare.gov/care-compare/inspections/pdf/nursing-home/185122/health/standard?date=2021-07-03">deficient in 29 areas</a>, including six that put residents in immediate jeopardy of serious harm and three where actual harm was found. The issues were so severe that the government slapped Landmark with <a href="https://www.medicare.gov/care-compare/details/nursing-home/185122?state=KY&measure=nursing-home-penalties">a fine of over US$319,000</a> − <a href="https://data.cms.gov/provider-data/dataset/g6vv-u9sr">more than 29 times the average</a> for a nursing home in 2021 − and suspended payments to the home from federal Medicaid and Medicare funds. </p>
<p>But problems persisted. Five months later, inspectors levied six additional deficiencies of immediate jeopardy − the highest level.</p>
<p>Landmark is just one of the 58 facilities run by parent company Infinity Healthcare Management across five states. The government issued penalties to the company almost 4½ times the national average, according to bimonthly data that the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services first started to make available in late 2022. All told, Infinity paid <a href="https://data.cms.gov/quality-of-care/nursing-home-affiliated-entity-performance-measures/data">nearly $10 million in fines</a> since 2021, the highest among nursing home chains with fewer than 100 facilities.</p>
<p>Infinity Healthcare Management and its executives did not respond to multiple requests for comment.</p>
<h2>Race to the bottom</h2>
<p>Such <a href="https://violationtracker.goodjobsfirst.org/">sanctions are nothing new</a> for Infinity or other for-profit nursing home chains that have dominated an industry long known for cutting corners in pursuit of profits for private owners. But this race to the bottom to extract profits is accelerating, despite demands by <a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-23-104813.pdf">government officials</a>, health care experts and advocacy groups to protect the nation’s most vulnerable citizens.</p>
<p>To uncover the reasons why, The Conversation delved into the nursing home industry, where for-profit facilities make up more than 72% of the nation’s nearly 14,900 facilities. The probe, which paired an academic expert with an investigative reporter, used the most recent government data on ownership, facility information and penalties, combined with <a href="https://data.cms.gov/quality-of-care/nursing-home-affiliated-entity-performance-measures/data">CMS data on affiliated entities</a> for nursing homes.</p>
<p>The investigation revealed an industry that places a premium on cost cutting and big profits, with low staffing and poor quality, often to the detriment of patient well-being. Operating under <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4541739">weak and poorly enforced regulations</a> with financially insignificant penalties, the for-profit sector fosters an environment where corners are frequently cut, compromising the quality of care and endangering patient health. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, owners make the facilities look less profitable by siphoning money from the homes through byzantine networks of interconnected corporations. Federal regulators have neglected the problem as <a href="https://theconsumervoice.org/news/detail/latest/new-report-nursing-homes-funnel-dollars-through-related-party-companies">each year likely billions of dollars are funneled</a> out of nursing homes through related parties and into owners’ pockets.</p>
<h2>More trouble at midsize</h2>
<p>Analyzing <a href="https://data.cms.gov/search">newly released government data</a>, our investigation found that these problems are most pronounced in nursing homes like Infinity − midsize chains that <a href="https://data.cms.gov/quality-of-care/nursing-home-affiliated-entity-performance-measures/data">operate between 11 and 100 facilities</a>. This subsection of the industry has higher average fines per home, lower overall quality ratings, and are more likely to be tagged with resident abuse compared with both the larger and smaller networks. Indeed, while such chains account for about 39% of all facilities, they operate 11 of the 15 most-fined facilities.</p>
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<p>With few impediments, private investors who own the midsize chains have swooped in to purchase underperforming homes, expanding their holdings even as larger chains divest and close facilities.</p>
<p>“They are really bad, but the names − we don’t know these names,” said Toby Edelman, senior policy attorney with the Center for Medicare Advocacy, a nonprofit law organization.</p>
<p>In response to The Conversation’s findings on nursing homes and request for an interview, a CMS spokesperson emailed <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24478510-nursing-home-information-request">a statement</a> that said the CMS is “unwavering in its commitment to improve safety and quality of care for the more than 1.2 million residents receiving care in Medicare- and Medicaid-certified nursing homes.”</p>
<p>“We support transparency and accountability,” the American Health Care Association/National Center for Assisted Living, a trade organization representing the nursing home industry, <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24475011-re-nursing-home-chains-and-cms-regulation-the-conversation-deadline-34-at-5pm-est">wrote in response</a> to The Conversation‘s request for comment. “But neither ownership nor line items on a budget sheet prove whether a nursing home is committed to its residents.”</p>
<h2>Ripe for abuse</h2>
<p>It often takes years to improve a poor nursing home − or <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/when-private-equity-takes-over-a-nursing-home">run one into the ground</a>. The analysis of midsize chains shows that most owners have been associated with their current facilities for less than eight years, making it difficult to separate operators who have taken long-term investments in resident care from those who are looking to quickly extract money and resources <a href="https://www.wpr.org/st-louis-nursing-home-closes-suddenly-prompting-wider-concerns-over-care">before closing them down or moving on</a>. These chains control roughly 41% of nursing home beds in the U.S., according to CMS’s provider data, making the lack of transparency especially ripe for abuse.</p>
<p>A churn of nursing home purchases even during the pandemic shows that investors view the sector as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/jgs.17288">highly profitable</a>, especially when staffing costs are kept low and fines for poor care can easily be covered by the money extracted from residents, their families and taxpayers.</p>
<p>A March 2024 study from Lehigh University and the University of California, Los Angeles also <a href="https://ucla.app.box.com/v/RelatedParties">shows that costs were inflated</a> when nursing home owners switched to contractors they controlled directly or indirectly. Overall, spending on real estate increased 20.4% and spending on management increased 24.6% when the businesses were affiliated, the research showed.</p>
<p>“This is the model of their care: They come in, they understaff and they make their money,” said Sam Brooks, director of public policy at the Consumer Voice, a national resident advocacy organization. “Then they multiply it over a series of different facilities.”</p>
<p><em>This is a condensed version of an article from The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/announcing-the-conversations-new-investigative-unit-were-looking-for-collaborators-in-academia-207394">investigative unit</a>. To find out more about the rise of for-profit nursing homes, financial trickery and what could make the nation’s most vulnerable citizens safer, <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-profit-nursing-homes-are-cutting-corners-on-safety-and-draining-resources-with-financial-shenanigans-especially-at-midsize-chains-that-dodge-public-scrutiny-225045">read the complete version</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225954/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Campbell is an adjunct assistant professor at Columbia University and a contributing writer at the Garrison Project, an independent news organization that focuses on mass incarceration and criminal justice.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Harrington is an advisory board member of the nonprofit Veteran's Health Policy Institute and a board member of the nonprofit Center for Health Information and Policy. Harrington served as an expert witness on nursing home litigation cases by residents against facilities owned or operated by Brius and Shlomo Rechnitz in the past and in 2022. She also served as an expert witness in a case against The Citadel Salisbury in North Carolina in 2021. </span></em></p>Owners of midsize nursing home chains harm the elderly and drain huge sums of money from facilities using opaque accounting practices while government doesn’t do enough to stop it.Sean Campbell, Investigative journalist, The ConversationCharlene Harrington, Professor Emeritus of Social Behavioral Sciences, University of California, San FranciscoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2234152024-03-18T12:32:12Z2024-03-18T12:32:12ZAs the US government and record labels go after TikTok, musicians get the squeeze<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582257/original/file-20240315-16-a1ogtt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C24%2C8243%2C5462&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Thomas Raggi of the band Måneskin performs a concert that streamed live on TikTok in 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/thomas-raggi-of-the-band-maneskin-performs-at-a-live-news-photo/1233487624?adppopup=true">Fabian Sommer/Picture Alliance via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For much of the year, TikTok has been on the defensive. </p>
<p>On March 13, 2024, the House of Representatives <a href="https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-house-vote-china-national-security-8fa7258fae1a4902d344c9d978d58a37">voted to approve a bill</a> that would force the short-form video app to be sold off from its Chinese parent company to non-Chinese owners or face a ban in the U.S. The Senate will still have to vote on the legislation, which received broad bipartisan support due to beliefs that TikTok creates risks to national security.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Universal Music Group, one of the biggest record labels in the world, <a href="https://www.universalmusic.com/an-open-letter-to-the-artist-and-songwriter-community-why-we-must-call-time-out-on-tiktok/">stopped licensing its music to TikTok</a> at the end of January 2024. Since then, songs by Taylor Swift, Billie Eilish and scores of other artists can no longer be used on the platform, while millions of TikTok videos that had incorporated tracks from Universal artists were muted.</p>
<p>Universal Music Group has an estimated <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4580695-universal-music-group-buy-the-leader-of-the-music-industry-ahead-of-earnings">37.5% market share</a> in the music industry, so its songs likely make up a significant portion of the clips used on TikTok prior to the ban.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/internet/tiktok-begins-removing-universal-music-publishing-songs-expanding-roya-rcna140713">The record label claims</a> its artists account for a majority of songs on the platform, and therefore, Universal artists should be better compensated and have guardrails against the harmful effects of artificial intelligence. TikTok, in its response, has said that it has come to amicable agreements with other record labels and that Universal is being unreasonable to the detriment of the artists it seeks to protect.</p>
<p>In the end, both companies simply want to have a larger piece of the pie.</p>
<p>But each of their interests, I believe, should be secondary to the creators that sustain them. Over the past two decades, as the internet and streaming have disrupted the music industry, wage gains for music professionals have been far more pronounced at the top of the income ladder. However, most composers and performers have seen their income and employment prospects dwindle.</p>
<p>TikTok has become a beacon in an otherwise dismal digital streaming landscape, and while musicians increasingly need TikTok, TikTok also needs music. </p>
<h2>Gains have gone to the top</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.proquest.com/openview/bc01f8f80efe2e8d006b26520064d146">My research explores the impact of technology</a> on music professionals in the internet era.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/91040797/what-the-digital-streaming-revolution-of-the-2000s-can-teach-us-about-the-ai-revolution-today-according-to-a-former-musician">Technology was supposed to democratize the music industry</a>, allowing more artists to more easily gain access to new markets.</p>
<p>Artists no longer needed a record deal to record their music and get it out to the world. They can record music cheaply using their computers, upload it to YouTube, Spotify, BandCamp, SoundCloud, Tidal or any number of platforms for music distribution, then promote their work on social media to build their audience.</p>
<p>But this didn’t lead to more music professionals making a living off their work.</p>
<p>That’s the conclusion I came to by analyzing data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which includes two categories of music professionals: performers, who record songs and put on live shows, and composers, which includes musicians who conduct performances or create original works of music but do not necessarily perform that music. A performer would be someone like Dua Lipa, whereas a composer might be someone who is credited for writing a track on Dua Lipa’s album. </p>
<p>From 1999 to 2022, composers saw a strong 85.3% boost in employment, reflecting a gain of 5,380 jobs. This alone suggests that technology has helped music professionals gain employment.</p>
<p>However, when we look at performers – whose employment numbers shrank by 14,690, or 31.6% – it tells a different story. </p>
<p>Put together, the total number of music professionals fell by 9,310 people from 1999 to 2022, reflecting a 17.6% drop. All the free promotion of social media and the lowered barriers to entry that the internet provided were not enough to sustain artists’ livelihoods.</p>
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<p>Wages tell a more complex story. </p>
<p>While more people have earned a living from composing music since 1999, their wage gains paled in comparison to that of performers. In short, there are fewer people working as performers now, but those who can cut it are making more money. </p>
<p>This would seem to show that technology has helped most working music professionals.</p>
<p>However, there were outsize gains among the top 10% of music professionals – so the bulk of the rewards from technological advancement went to those at the top. The average wage gain for music professions rises as you climb the income ladder.</p>
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<h2>Artists first, or artists last?</h2>
<p>Artists, then, are having an increasingly difficult time making a living, especially independent artists who comprise the lower income brackets. </p>
<p>The promises of technology <a href="https://hbr.org/2024/01/is-genais-impact-on-productivity-overblown">are often overblown</a>; in the case of music, the winners and losers have ended up mirroring <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/rising-inequality-a-major-issue-of-our-time/">broader societal inequalities</a>.</p>
<p>Even as technology hasn’t deliver what it promised to artists, artists are increasingly reliant on technology to make a living. </p>
<p>They’ve increasingly turned to TikTok to do so.</p>
<p>TikTok, with <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/272014/global-social-networks-ranked-by-number-of-users/">more than a billion active users</a> worldwide, has revolutionized music promotion and discovery. Unlike traditional social media, TikTok’s unique format, algorithm-driven content discovery and collaborative features supposedly democratize fame. </p>
<p>Lesser-known artists can go viral, shaping the Billboard charts and propelling songs into the mainstream. Lil Nas X <a href="https://www.grammy.com/news/lil-nas-xs-no-1-run-began-tiktok-now-music-industry-taking-notice">rose to fame on TikTok</a> with “Old Town Road” and promptly signed on to Columbia Records. Oliver Anthony, the creator of the populist hit “Rich Men North Of Richmond,” <a href="https://www.billboard.com/music/chart-beat/oliver-anthony-music-rich-men-north-of-richmond-number-one-debut-hot-100-1235396681/">went viral</a> in summer 2023, eventually reaching the No. 1 spot on the Billboard Hot 100.</p>
<p>In this era of virality, TikTok has become an essential promotional tool for musicians and record labels alike, transcending the boundaries of conventional social platforms.</p>
<p>By cutting ties with TikTok, Universal Music Group is not only depriving its artists of these opportunities, but it’s also alienating a large and loyal fan base who use TikTok to interact with their favorite artists and their songs. </p>
<p>TikTok also loses in this situation, since music is such a critical part of its audiovisual experience. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-22/tiktok-lost-customers-when-it-took-away-music-in-australia">In a 2023 test conducted by TikTok</a>, the platform limited the music that some users in Australia could use in posts. For three straight weeks, the number of users, along with the time users spent on the app, declined. </p>
<p>Both parties say they want to protect the artists, <a href="https://newsroom.tiktok.com/en-us/tiktok-statement-in-response-to-universal-music-group">with TikTok arguing</a> that it has reached “artist-first agreements with every other label” and that “Universal’s self-serving actions are not in the best interests of artists, songwriters, and fans.”</p>
<p>TikTok is banking on the perception that platforms provide opportunities for cultural producers by saying that the power of the platform lies in it being “a free promotional and discovery vehicle” for artists. Some members of Congress who opposed the TikTok ban cited the platform’s <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/tiktok-bill-ban-house-vote-af4d0800?mod=hp_lead_pos1">utility for maintaining creators’ livelihoods</a>, so this is a common refrain.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Woman holds sign reading 'I'm 1 of 170 million Americans on TikTok.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582253/original/file-20240315-28-ytsbjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582253/original/file-20240315-28-ytsbjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582253/original/file-20240315-28-ytsbjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582253/original/file-20240315-28-ytsbjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582253/original/file-20240315-28-ytsbjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582253/original/file-20240315-28-ytsbjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582253/original/file-20240315-28-ytsbjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A protester holds a sign in support of TikTok at a news conference outside the U.S. Capitol on March 12, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/participants-hold-signs-in-support-of-tiktok-at-a-news-news-photo/2079160123?adppopup=true">Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>In response, Universal Music Group has declared that TikTok has an “outdated view” of the modern music business due to the app’s insistence that it provides exposure for artists – and that this exposure is good enough. As my research shows, this free promotion has not grown the ranks of artists who can make a living off music.</p>
<p>TikTok still holds out hope that it can reach “<a href="https://newsroom.tiktok.com/en-us/umpg-update-february-28-2024">an equitable agreement with Universal Music Group</a>,” but the record label hasn’t budged.</p>
<p>The two media companies say they want to protect artists. But I believe the artists are the ones who will end up hurt the most in a divorce.</p>
<p>In other words, TikTok and Universal need to stay together for the kids.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223415/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ediz Ozelkan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For some musical artists, TikTok has become a beacon in an otherwise dismal digital streaming landscape.Ediz Ozelkan, Lecturer of Media Studies, University of Colorado BoulderLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2200362024-03-18T12:31:28Z2024-03-18T12:31:28ZAI vs. elections: 4 essential reads about the threat of high-tech deception in politics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582204/original/file-20240315-28-p5czjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4977%2C6250&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Like it or not, AI is already playing a role in the 2024 presidential election.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/android-celebrating-4th-july-royalty-free-image/499467267?phrase=Robot+Uncle+Sam">kirstypargeter/iStock via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s official. Joe Biden and Donald Trump have <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/13/few-voters-decide-trump-biden-nominations/">secured the necessary delegates</a> to be their parties’ nominees for president in the 2024 election. Barring unforeseen events, the two will be formally nominated at the party conventions this summer and face off at the ballot box on Nov. 5. </p>
<p>It’s a safe bet that, as <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-tech-firms-have-tried-to-stop-disinformation-and-voter-intimidation-and-come-up-short-148771">in recent elections</a>, this one will play out largely online and feature a potent blend of news and disinformation delivered over social media. New this year are powerful generative artificial intelligence tools such as <a href="https://openai.com/chatgpt">ChatGPT</a> and <a href="https://openai.com/sora">Sora</a> that make it easier to “<a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=4040800">flood the zone</a>” with propaganda and disinformation and produce convincing deepfakes: words coming from the mouths of politicians that they did not actually say and events replaying before our eyes that did not actually happen.</p>
<p>The result is an increased likelihood of voters being deceived and, perhaps as worrisome, a growing sense that <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/378236203_Profiling_the_Dynamics_of_Trust_Distrust_in_Social_Media_A_Survey_Study">you can’t trust anything you see online</a>. Trump is already taking advantage of the so-called <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055423001454">liar’s dividend</a>, the opportunity to discount your actual words and deeds as deepfakes. Trump implied on his Truth Social platform on March 12, 2024, that real videos of him shown by Democratic House members were <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/13/trump-video-ai-truth-social/">produced or altered using artificial intelligence</a>.</p>
<p>The Conversation has been covering the latest developments in artificial intelligence that have the potential to undermine democracy. The following is a roundup of some of those articles from our archive. </p>
<h2>1. Fake events</h2>
<p>The ability to use AI to make convincing fakes is particularly troublesome for producing false evidence of events that never happened. Rochester Institute of Technology computer security researcher <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=UxGWcUYAAAAJ&hl=en">Christopher Schwartz</a> has dubbed these <a href="https://theconversation.com/events-that-never-happened-could-influence-the-2024-presidential-election-a-cybersecurity-researcher-explains-situation-deepfakes-206034">situation deepfakes</a>.</p>
<p>“The basic idea and technology of a situation deepfake are the same as with any other deepfake, but with a bolder ambition: to manipulate a real event or invent one from thin air,” he wrote.</p>
<p>Situation deepfakes could be used to boost or undermine a candidate or suppress voter turnout. If you encounter reports on social media of events that are surprising or extraordinary, try to learn more about them from reliable sources, such as fact-checked news reports, peer-reviewed academic articles or interviews with credentialed experts, Schwartz said. Also, recognize that deepfakes can take advantage of what you are inclined to believe.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/events-that-never-happened-could-influence-the-2024-presidential-election-a-cybersecurity-researcher-explains-situation-deepfakes-206034">Events that never happened could influence the 2024 presidential election – a cybersecurity researcher explains situation deepfakes</a>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">How AI puts disinformation on steroids.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>2. Russia, China and Iran take aim</h2>
<p>From the question of what AI-generated disinformation can do follows the question of who has been wielding it. Today’s AI tools put the capacity to produce disinformation in reach for most people, but of particular concern are <a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-disinformation-is-a-threat-to-elections-learning-to-spot-russian-chinese-and-iranian-meddling-in-other-countries-can-help-the-us-prepare-for-2024-214358">nations that are adversaries</a> of the United States and other democracies. In particular, Russia, China and Iran have extensive experience with disinformation campaigns and technology.</p>
<p>“There’s a lot more to running a disinformation campaign than generating content,” wrote security expert and Harvard Kennedy School lecturer <a href="https://www.schneier.com/">Bruce Schneier</a>. “The hard part is distribution. A propagandist needs a series of fake accounts on which to post, and others to boost it into the mainstream where it can go viral.”</p>
<p>Russia and China have a history of testing disinformation campaigns on smaller countries, according to Schneier. “Countering new disinformation campaigns requires being able to recognize them, and recognizing them requires looking for and cataloging them now,” he wrote.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-disinformation-is-a-threat-to-elections-learning-to-spot-russian-chinese-and-iranian-meddling-in-other-countries-can-help-the-us-prepare-for-2024-214358">AI disinformation is a threat to elections − learning to spot Russian, Chinese and Iranian meddling in other countries can help the US prepare for 2024</a>
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<h2>3. Healthy skepticism</h2>
<p>But it doesn’t require the resources of shadowy intelligence services in powerful nations to make headlines, as the New Hampshire <a href="https://apnews.com/article/ai-robocall-biden-new-hampshire-primary-2024-f94aa2d7f835ccc3cc254a90cd481a99">fake Biden robocall</a> produced and disseminated by two individuals and aimed at dissuading some voters illustrates. That episode prompted the Federal Communications Commission to <a href="https://theconversation.com/fcc-bans-robocalls-using-deepfake-voice-clones-but-ai-generated-disinformation-still-looms-over-elections-223160">ban robocalls that use voices generated</a> by artificial intelligence. </p>
<p>AI-powered disinformation campaigns are difficult to counter because they can be delivered over different channels, including robocalls, social media, email, text message and websites, which complicates the digital forensics of tracking down the sources of the disinformation, wrote <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=yu4Ew7gAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">Joan Donovan</a>, a media and disinformation scholar at Boston University.</p>
<p>“In many ways, AI-enhanced disinformation such as the New Hampshire robocall poses the same problems as every other form of disinformation,” Donovan wrote. “People who use AI to disrupt elections are likely to do what they can to hide their tracks, which is why it’s necessary for the public to remain skeptical about claims that do not come from verified sources, such as local TV news or social media accounts of reputable news organizations.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fcc-bans-robocalls-using-deepfake-voice-clones-but-ai-generated-disinformation-still-looms-over-elections-223160">FCC bans robocalls using deepfake voice clones − but AI-generated disinformation still looms over elections</a>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">How to spot AI-generated images.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>4. A new kind of political machine</h2>
<p>AI-powered disinformation campaigns are also difficult to counter because they can include bots – automated social media accounts that pose as real people – and can include <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ai-could-take-over-elections-and-undermine-democracy-206051">online interactions tailored to individuals</a>, potentially over the course of an election and potentially with millions of people.</p>
<p>Harvard political scientist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=3Bl9cn8AAAAJ&hl=en">Archon Fung</a> and legal scholar <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=LxG5YWcAAAAJ&hl=en">Lawrence Lessig</a> described these capabilities and laid out a hypothetical scenario of national political campaigns wielding these powerful tools.</p>
<p>Attempts to block these machines could run afoul of the free speech protections of the First Amendment, according to Fung and Lessig. “One constitutionally safer, if smaller, step, already adopted in part by European internet regulators and in California, is to prohibit bots from passing themselves off as people,” they wrote. “For example, regulation might require that campaign messages come with disclaimers when the content they contain is generated by machines rather than humans.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ai-could-take-over-elections-and-undermine-democracy-206051">How AI could take over elections – and undermine democracy</a>
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<p><em>This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives.</em></p>
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<p><em><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/election-2024-disinformation-151606">This article is part of Disinformation 2024:</a></strong> a series examining the science, technology and politics of deception in elections.</em></p>
<p><em>You may also be interested in:</em></p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/disinformation-is-rampant-on-social-media-a-social-psychologist-explains-the-tactics-used-against-you-216598">Disinformation is rampant on social media – a social psychologist explains the tactics used against you</a></p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/misinformation-disinformation-and-hoaxes-whats-the-difference-158491">Misinformation, disinformation and hoaxes: What’s the difference?</a></p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/disinformation-campaigns-are-murky-blends-of-truth-lies-and-sincere-beliefs-lessons-from-the-pandemic-140677">Disinformation campaigns are murky blends of truth, lies and sincere beliefs – lessons from the pandemic</a></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220036/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Using disinformation to sway elections is nothing new. Powerful new AI tools, however, threaten to give the deceptions unprecedented reach.Eric Smalley, Science + Technology EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2228472024-03-18T12:30:59Z2024-03-18T12:30:59ZHow do airplanes fly? An aerospace engineer explains the physics of flight<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578175/original/file-20240227-28-cejldv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7668%2C4449&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">U.S. airlines carry more than 800 million passengers per year.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/airplane-isolated-on-sky-3d-rendering-royalty-free-image/1147868750?phrase=airplanes">Lasha Kilasonia/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/curious-kids-us-74795">Curious Kids</a> is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to <a href="mailto:curiouskidsus@theconversation.com">curiouskidsus@theconversation.com</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>How do airplanes fly? – Benson, age 10, Rockford, Michigan</strong></p>
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<hr>
<p>Airplane flight is one of the most significant technological achievements of the 20th century. The <a href="https://airandspace.si.edu/explore/stories/wright-brothers">invention of the airplane</a> allows people to travel from one side of the planet to the other in less than a day, compared with weeks of travel by boat and train.</p>
<p>Understanding precisely why airplanes fly is an ongoing challenge for <a href="https://www.clarkson.edu/people/craig-merrett">aerospace engineers, like me</a>, who study and design airplanes, rockets, satellites, helicopters and space capsules. </p>
<p>Our job is to make sure that flying through the air or in space is safe and reliable, by using tools and ideas from science and mathematics, like computer simulations and experiments. </p>
<p>Because of that work, flying in an airplane is <a href="https://usafacts.org/articles/is-flying-safer-than-driving/">the safest way to travel</a> – safer than cars, buses, trains or boats. But although aerospace engineers design aircraft that are stunningly sophisticated, you might be surprised to learn there are still some details about the physics of flight that we don’t fully understand.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577439/original/file-20240222-28-v3tjb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A diagram of an airplane that shows the four forces of flight." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577439/original/file-20240222-28-v3tjb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577439/original/file-20240222-28-v3tjb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577439/original/file-20240222-28-v3tjb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577439/original/file-20240222-28-v3tjb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577439/original/file-20240222-28-v3tjb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577439/original/file-20240222-28-v3tjb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577439/original/file-20240222-28-v3tjb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The forces of weight, thrust, drag and lift act on a plane to keep it aloft and moving.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www1.grc.nasa.gov/beginners-guide-to-aeronautics/airplane-cruise-balanced-forces/">NASA</a></span>
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<h2>May the force(s) be with you</h2>
<p>There are <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/stem-content/four-forces-of-flight/#:%7E">four forces</a> that aerospace engineers consider when designing an airplane: weight, thrust, drag and lift. Engineers use these forces to help design the shape of the airplane, the size of the wings, and figure out how many passengers the airplane can carry. </p>
<p>For example, when an airplane takes off, the thrust must be greater than the drag, and the lift must be greater than the weight. If you watch an airplane take off, you’ll see the wings change shape using flaps from the back of the wings. The flaps help make more lift, but they also make more drag, so a powerful engine is necessary to create more thrust. </p>
<p>When the airplane is high enough and is cruising to your destination, lift needs to balance the weight, and the thrust needs to balance the drag. So the pilot pulls the flaps in and can set the engine to produce less power.</p>
<p>That said, let’s define what force means. According to <a href="https://ca.pbslearningmedia.org/resource/4079abf0-7a4b-4f49-80ad-c69cd06a80f9/newtons-second-law-of-motion/">Newton’s Second Law</a>, a force is a mass multiplied by an acceleration, or F = ma. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579678/original/file-20240304-22-jrh9mr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A black and white historical photograph of the first flight of the Wright brothers." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579678/original/file-20240304-22-jrh9mr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579678/original/file-20240304-22-jrh9mr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579678/original/file-20240304-22-jrh9mr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579678/original/file-20240304-22-jrh9mr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579678/original/file-20240304-22-jrh9mr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579678/original/file-20240304-22-jrh9mr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579678/original/file-20240304-22-jrh9mr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On Dec. 17, 1903, the Wright brothers made their first flight at Kitty Hawk, N.C. Orville Wright is at the controls, while Wilbur looks on.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-flyer-takes-off-from-kill-devil-hill-with-orville-news-photo/517389284?adppopup=true">Bettmann via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>A force that everyone encounters every day is <a href="https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/what-is-gravity/en/#:%7E">the force of gravity</a>, which keeps us on the ground. When you get weighed at the doctor’s office, they’re actually measuring the amount of force that your body applies to the scale. When your weight is given in pounds, that is a measure of force. </p>
<p>While an airplane is flying, gravity is pulling the airplane down. That force is the weight of the airplane. </p>
<p>But its engines push the airplane forward because they create <a href="https://www1.grc.nasa.gov/beginners-guide-to-aeronautics/what-is-thrust/">a force called thrust</a>. The engines pull in air, which has mass, and quickly push that air out of the back of the engine – so there’s a mass multiplied by an acceleration. </p>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-wh3fJRdjo">Newton’s Third Law</a>, for every action there’s an equal and opposite reaction. When the air rushes out the back of the engines, there is a reaction force that pushes the airplane forward – that’s called thrust.</p>
<p>As the airplane flies through the air, the shape of the airplane pushes air out of the way. Again, by Newton’s Third Law, this air pushes back, <a href="https://www1.grc.nasa.gov/beginners-guide-to-aeronautics/what-is-drag/#:%7E">which leads to drag</a>. </p>
<p>You can experience something similar to drag when swimming. Paddle through a pool, and your arms and feet provide thrust. Stop paddling, and you will keep moving forward because you have mass, but you will slow down. The reason that you slow down is that the water is pushing back on you – that’s drag. </p>
<h2>Understanding lift</h2>
<p><a href="https://www1.grc.nasa.gov/beginners-guide-to-aeronautics/what-is-lift/">Lift</a> is more complicated than the other forces of weight, thrust and drag. It’s created by the wings of an airplane, and the shape of the wing is critical; that shape is <a href="https://howthingsfly.si.edu/media/airfoil#:%7E">known as an airfoil</a>. Basically it means the top and bottom of the wing are curved, although the shapes of the curves can be different from each other. </p>
<p>As air flows around the airfoil, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UO75jDwGCdQ">it creates pressure</a> – a force spread out over a large area. Lower pressure is created on the top of the airfoil compared to the pressure on the bottom. Or to look at it another way, air travels faster over the top of the airfoil than beneath. </p>
<p>Understanding why the pressure and speeds are different on the top and the bottom is <a href="https://airandspace.si.edu/multimedia-gallery/lift-and-copjpg">critical to understand lift</a>. By improving our understanding of lift, engineers can design more fuel-efficient airplanes and give passengers more comfortable flights.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579698/original/file-20240304-24-6df49v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A diagram that shows how the airfoil of a plane works." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579698/original/file-20240304-24-6df49v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579698/original/file-20240304-24-6df49v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579698/original/file-20240304-24-6df49v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579698/original/file-20240304-24-6df49v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579698/original/file-20240304-24-6df49v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579698/original/file-20240304-24-6df49v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579698/original/file-20240304-24-6df49v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Note the airfoil, which is a specific wing shape that helps keep a plane in the air.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/how-airplanes-fly-royalty-free-illustration/1401215523?phrase=airfoil+diagram&adppopup=true">Dimitrios Karamitros/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span>
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<h2>The conundrum</h2>
<p>The reason why air moves at different speeds around an airfoil remains mysterious, and <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/video/no-one-can-explain-why-planes-stay-in-the-air/">scientists are still investigating</a> this question. </p>
<p>Aerospace engineers have measured these pressures on a wing in both wind tunnel experiments and during flight. We can create models of different wings to predict if they will fly well. We can also change lift by changing a wing’s shape to create airplanes that fly for long distances or fly very fast. </p>
<p>Even though we still don’t fully know why lift happens, aerospace engineers work with mathematical equations that recreate the different speeds on the top and bottom of the airfoil. Those equations describe a process <a href="https://howthingsfly.si.edu/media/circulation-theory-lift">known as circulation</a>. </p>
<p>Circulation provides aerospace engineers with a way to model what happens around a wing even if we do not completely understand why it happens. In other words, through the use of math and science, we are able to build airplanes that are safe and efficient, even if we don’t completely understand the process behind why it works.</p>
<p>Ultimately, if aerospace engineers can figure out why the air flows at different speeds depending on which side of the wing it’s on, we can design airplanes that use less fuel and pollute less.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to <a href="mailto:curiouskidsus@theconversation.com">CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com</a>. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.</em></p>
<p><em>And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222847/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Craig Merrett receives funding from the Office of Naval Research and L3Harris. He is affiliated with the American Institute for Aeronautics and Astronautics, and is a licensed professional engineering in Ontario, Canada. Dr. Merrett is an associate professor in the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering at Clarkson University, Potsdam, NY. </span></em></p>People have been flying airplanes for well over a century. Engineers know how to balance all the forces at play, but still aren’t exactly sure how some of the physics of flight actually works.Craig Merrett, Professor of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Clarkson UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2255092024-03-18T12:28:06Z2024-03-18T12:28:06ZAmid growth in AI writing tools, this course teaches future lawyers and other professionals to become better editors<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581594/original/file-20240313-18-ljzu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C93%2C6852%2C4260&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Even the best paragraphs may have room for improvement.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/cyber-law-or-internet-law-concept-with-ai-robot-royalty-free-image/1350320510?phrase=law+students+writing+ai+&adppopup=true">PhonlamaiPhoto via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Text saying: Uncommon Courses, from The Conversation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/uncommon-courses-130908">Uncommon Courses</a> is an occasional series from The Conversation U.S. highlighting unconventional approaches to teaching.</em> </p>
<h2>Title of Course:</h2>
<p>“Editing and Advocacy”</p>
<h2>What prompted the idea for the course?</h2>
<p>In part, I wanted to improve the career prospects of the law students, business students and other aspiring professionals I teach. People who can consistently improve the sentences and paragraphs that come across their desk each day have the opportunity to improve the way ideas and messages are communicated. Who wouldn’t want to add someone like that to their company, government agency or nonprofit organization?</p>
<p>Mostly, though, I designed the course so that my students can experience the empowering magic that comes with being able to take a string of words — whether drafted by themselves or somebody else — and transform them into a revised version that is undeniably better than the original. </p>
<h2>What does the course explore?</h2>
<p>Students edit emails. They edit contracts. They edit memos, articles, speeches, proposals, text messages, blog posts — pretty much anything that lawyers and other professionals compose. Sometimes they edit alone. Other times they edit as part of a team. But the goal is always the same: learn and practice a skill that is fundamental to becoming an excellent advocate.</p>
<h2>Why is this course relevant now?</h2>
<p>I first starting teaching “Editing and Advocacy” a few years before the launch of ChatGPT and other generative AI tools. But now that those tools have significantly reduced the cost of producing drafts, the course’s focus on revising drafts — for accuracy, for clarity, for persuasive power — has taken on a newfound relevance.</p>
<p>For instance, when asked how AI might affect what he and other members of the knowledge economy do, tech journalist <a href="https://www.theringer.com/2023/3/21/23649894/the-ai-revolution-could-be%2520-bigger-and-weirder-than-we-can-imagine.">Charlie Warzel suggested</a> that “the greatest skill that we can all have now is to be ‘editors.’” We may, he noted, start to spend an increasing amount of time correcting and refining AI-produced material.</p>
<p>Ilona Logvinova, associate general counsel and head of innovation for the legal department at consulting giant McKinsey, <a href="https://wsjcustomevents.com/lexisnexis2024">made a similar point</a>, telling attendees at a recent conference on the use of AI in law: “I really believe that we’re at a moment where we, as lawyers, can transition from being ‘drafters’ to being ‘editors.’”</p>
<h2>What’s a critical lesson from the course?</h2>
<p>One of the most critical lessons is something I put front and center on the syllabus: “Good editors don’t just see the sentence that was written. They see the sentence that might have been written. They know how to spot words that shouldn’t be included and summon up ones that haven’t yet appeared. Their value comes not just from preventing mistakes but also from discovering new ways to improve a piece’s style, structure, and overall impact.”</p>
<p>The current generation of AI tools is really good at proofreading. But so far, I haven’t encountered any large language model that has the vision, empathy and deep understanding of both context and nuance — not to mention of personal voice —required of a truly exceptional editor.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman peers into a book while seated at her desk, which has both a desktop and a laptop computer." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582048/original/file-20240314-21-w762u1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582048/original/file-20240314-21-w762u1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582048/original/file-20240314-21-w762u1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582048/original/file-20240314-21-w762u1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582048/original/file-20240314-21-w762u1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582048/original/file-20240314-21-w762u1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582048/original/file-20240314-21-w762u1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Experts say editing will take on greater importance in the age of artificial intelligence.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Laurence Dutton via Getty Images</span></span>
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<p>That doesn’t mean that a technology with those capacities won’t eventually develop, nor that the technology we already have can’t provide enormously useful editing assistance. In fact, more and more of my assignments in “Editing and Advocacy” give students a chance to play around with ChatGPT-like tools. I have also created an entirely separate course called “Digital Lawyering: Advocacy in the Age of AI” that explores the possibilities – and pitfalls – of using artificial intelligence as a kind of co-counsel.</p>
<p>But as I often remind students in both classes, editing is as much about imagination, emotional intelligence and restraint as it is about syntax, semicolons and subject-and-verb agreement. A good way to become better at it is to cultivate the parts of you that are most human. </p>
<h2>What materials does the course feature?</h2>
<p>Hoping to save my students some money — and wanting to make the materials of the course easily available online — I worked with the <a href="https://www.publishing.umich.edu/our-mission">publishing team</a> at the University of Michigan to create a set of open-access books that anyone with an internet connection can read for free. These include “<a href="https://www.fulcrum.org/concern/monographs/hq37vr12w">Editing and Advocacy</a>,” “<a href="https://www.fulcrum.org/concern/monographs/dv13zw31v">Notes on Nuance</a>,” “<a href="https://www.fulcrum.org/concern/monographs/f1881p37d">Punctuation and Persuasion</a>” and “<a href="https://www.fulcrum.org/concern/monographs/8623j145m">Feedback Loops: How to Give and Receive High-Quality Feedback</a>.”</p>
<p>We also use videos, quizzes and exercises from <a href="https://www.coursera.org/specializations/good-with-words">Good with Words: Writing and Editing</a>, a series of online courses I created for the educational platform <a href="https://www.coursera.org/">Coursera</a>. </p>
<h2>What will the course prepare students to do?</h2>
<p>Editing involves reliably making informed, value-creating decisions. You need to know what to add. You need to know what to delete. You need to know what to separate, combine and rearrange. Students in the course study, evaluate and regularly participate in those types of decisions. In the process, they develop an extremely important and highly transferable skill: good judgment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225509/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patrick Barry does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Learning how to produce polished prose can greatly enhance your value on the job.Patrick Barry, Clinical Assistant Professor and Director of Digital Academic Initiatives (University of Michigan Law School) | Visiting Lecturer (University of Chicago Law School) | Visiting Lecturer (UCLA School of Law), University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2251492024-03-18T12:27:18Z2024-03-18T12:27:18ZChildren experience more injuries, stress and even burnout when they specialize in one sport<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582293/original/file-20240315-24-m854g4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C9%2C6019%2C3982&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Along with ankle injuries, kids focusing on one sport tend to have more shoulder and knee issues, including ACL injuries.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/hispanic-soccer-player-outdoor-in-sunny-day-having-royalty-free-image/1438631123?phrase=kid+athlete+with+injury&adppopup=true">LSOphoto/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>From football to baseball, gymnastics to tennis, more young athletes are becoming sports specialists. They join expensive sports clubs or youth leagues and devote themselves to a single sport all year long. But <a href="https://orthosurgery.ucsf.edu/patient-care/faculty/nirav-pandya">Nirav Pandya</a>, a professor of orthopedic surgery and sports medicine at the University of California San Francisco, says there are risks when kids specialize, including an increased possibility of injury and a high burnout rate.</em></p>
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<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/919219474" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Dr. Nirav Pandya discusses the problems that can occur when kids specialize in one sport.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>The Conversation has collaborated with SciLine to bring you highlights from the discussion, which have been edited for brevity and clarity.</em></p>
<p><strong>What trends do you see related to kids and sports participation?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Nirav Pandya:</strong> We’re seeing a <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/latest-global-youth-sports-market-153000303.html">tremendous number of kids</a> who are participating in sports <a href="https://www.complex.com/sports/a/morganmcdaniel1/aau-is-dominating-high-school-basketball">outside of the school setting</a>. </p>
<p>And kids are specializing in sports at younger ages. Six-, 7-, 8- and 9-year-olds are playing one sport year-round to the exclusion of other sports. </p>
<p><strong>What are the outcomes for kids who specialize?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Nirav Pandya:</strong> When kids specialize, they have a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2325967120922764">significantly increased risk of injury</a>.</p>
<p>We also know <a href="https://publications.aap.org/aapnews/news/27833/Professionalization-of-youth-sports-can-lead-to?">70% of kids will drop out of sports</a> by age 13 if they specialize.</p>
<p>Also, in the long term, kids who specialize in a single sport perform less well in that sport and in all sports in general than <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/23259671221129594">kids who play more than one</a>. So once again, we’re really hurting kids from multiple different levels if they’re specializing. </p>
<p><strong>What is the relationship between sports specialization and injuries?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Nirav Pandya:</strong> There’s a tremendous increase in traumatic injuries. <a href="https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/acl-injury/symptoms-causes/syc-20350738">ACL tears</a> used to be something we’d see in 17-, 18-, 19-year-olds. Now, 10-, 11- and 12-year-olds get them. The rate of ACL injuries has gone <a href="https://projectplay.org/state-of-play-2023/health-trends">up 12% over the last decade</a> in this adolescent age group. </p>
<p>Based on my experience as a clinician, kids are also getting overuse injuries like knee pain and shoulder pain from doing too much of the same activity again and again. </p>
<p><strong>Are clubs and leagues costly?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Nirav Pandya:</strong> The Aspen Institute has shown that families will spend, on average, <a href="https://projectplay.org/state-of-play-2022/costs-to-play-trends">about $1,000 per year</a> for these travel or private club sports. That’s a big financial burden for a lot of families. </p>
<p>In addition, the reason why a lot of families are doing this is because they want their kids <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/betting-on-a-sports-scholarship-to-pay-for-kids-college-dont/">to get a college scholarship</a>. Colleges are very expensive, and parents think if their child specializes in a sport and plays on these club teams, they can get to that level. </p>
<p>What families don’t understand is that the average four-year college scholarship amount <a href="https://www.debt.org/students/athletic-scholarships/#:%7E">is only $14,000</a>. And of all the kids playing sports, only 2% of them are <a href="https://www.nfhs.org/media/886012/recruiting-fact-sheet-web.pdf">actually going to get a college scholarship</a>. </p>
<p><strong>Is this mainly a problem for the rich?</strong> </p>
<p><strong>Nirav Pandya:</strong> You have one group of kids who have access to sports because their families have the money and those kids are getting injured. And then you have another group of kids whose families don’t have the money to participate, and therefore there isn’t really an outlet for them to be physically active because <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s12178-021-09716-5">school funding is going down</a>. Recreational programs don’t exist. So then those kids get <a href="https://projectplay.org/youth-sports/facts/benefits">the problems of diabetes, obesity and hypertension</a>, and they carry that into adulthood.</p>
<p><strong>What can parents do to ensure their kids have a healthy relationship with sports?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Nirav Pandya:</strong> It’s important for parents to understand the data. And that’s our role as physical therapists, athletic trainers and coaches – to understand that data and give it to parents. </p>
<p>I think the second thing is also not to feel the pressure to enter the youth sports complex, <a href="https://time.com/4913687/how-kids-sports-became-15-billion-industry/">a US$15.3 billion industry</a>. Instead, donate to a community organization that is funding recreational sports, or try to push for your school to have those opportunities for your kids. </p>
<p>And finally, if your child is going to be playing travel sports or year-round sports, the parents should look at the websites of the club. Are they promoting kids to be healthy and active in a safe environment, or are they promoting kids to get a scholarship? </p>
<p><em>Watch the <a href="https://www.sciline.org/health-medicine/sports-specialization/">full interview</a> to hear more.</em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://www.sciline.org/">SciLine</a> is a free service based at the nonprofit American Association for the Advancement of Science that helps journalists include scientific evidence and experts in their news stories.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225149/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nirav Pandya does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The rate of injury for single-sport adolescents is far higher than for other kids who play a variety of sports.Nirav Pandya, Associate Professor, Pediatric Orthopaedics and Sports Medicine, University of California, San FranciscoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2232702024-03-18T12:24:52Z2024-03-18T12:24:52ZFree school meals for all may reduce childhood obesity, while easing financial and logistical burdens for families and schools<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580529/original/file-20240307-16-nylyj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1024%2C683&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">School meal waivers that started with the COVID-19 pandemic stopped with the end of the public health emergency.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/plymouth-ma-a-student-at-plymouth-county-intermediate-news-photo/1242013592">Jonathan Wiggs/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>School meals are critical to child health. Research has shown that <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/nu9090924">school meals can be more nutritious</a> than meals from other sources, such as meals brought from home. </p>
<p>A recent study that one of us conducted found the quality of school meals has steadily improved, especially since the 2010 <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.9517">Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act</a> strengthened nutrition standards for school meals. In fact, by 2017, another study found that school meals provided the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.5262">best diet quality</a> of any major U.S. food source.</p>
<p>Many American families became familiar with universal free school meals during the COVID-19 pandemic. To ease the financial and logistical burdens of the pandemic on families and schools, the <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/coronavirus">U.S. Department of Agriculture issued waivers</a> that allowed schools nationwide to provide free breakfast and lunch to all students. However, these <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/cn/offsite-monitoring-after-phe#">waivers expired</a> by the 2022-23 school year. </p>
<p>Since that time, there has been a substantial increase in schools participating in the <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/cn/community-eligibility-provision">Community Eligibility Provision</a>, a federal policy that allows schools in high poverty areas to provide free breakfast and lunch to all attending students. The policy became available as an option for low-income schools nationwide in 2014 and was part of the <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/Child_Nutrition_Fact_Sheet_12_10_10.pdf">Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act</a>. By the 2022-23 school year, <a href="https://frac.org/cep-report-2023">over 40,000 schools</a> had adopted the Community Eligibility Provision, an increase of more than 20% over the prior year.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wsFvSmkYbVU?wmode=transparent&start=30" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Many families felt stressed when a federal program providing free school meals during the pandemic came to an end.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We are <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ihU7JuoAAAAJ&hl=en">public health</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=VkqyJPcAAAAJ&hl=en">researchers who</a> study the health effects of nutrition-related policies, particularly those that alleviate poverty. Our newly published research found that the Community Eligibility Provision was associated with a net <a href="https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.2023-063749">reduction in the prevalence of childhood obesity</a>.</p>
<h2>Improving the health of American children</h2>
<p>President Harry Truman <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/nslp/nslp-fact-sheet">established the National School Lunch Program</a> in 1946, with the stated goal of protecting the health and well-being of American children. The program established permanent federal funding for school lunches, and participating schools were required to provide free or reduced-price lunches to children from qualifying households. Eligibility is <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/cn/fr-020923">determined by income</a> based on federal poverty levels, both of which are <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/01/17/2024-00796/annual-update-of-the-hhs-poverty-guidelines#">revised annually</a>.</p>
<p>In 1966, the <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/cna-amended-pl-111-296">Child Nutrition Act</a> piloted the <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/sbp/program-history">School Breakfast Program</a>, which provides free, reduced-price and full-price breakfasts to students. This program was later made permanent through an amendment in 1975.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/cn/community-eligibility-provision">Community Eligibility Provision</a> was piloted in several states beginning in 2011 and became an option for eligible schools nationwide beginning in 2014. It operates through the national school lunch and school breakfast programs and expands on these programs.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580532/original/file-20240307-22-r2dnw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Gloved hand placing cheese slices on bun slices" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580532/original/file-20240307-22-r2dnw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580532/original/file-20240307-22-r2dnw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580532/original/file-20240307-22-r2dnw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580532/original/file-20240307-22-r2dnw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580532/original/file-20240307-22-r2dnw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580532/original/file-20240307-22-r2dnw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580532/original/file-20240307-22-r2dnw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Various federal and state programs have sought to make food more accessible to children.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/cafeteria-worker-puts-together-sandwiches-for-free-meals-as-news-photo/1213018954">John Moore/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The policy allows all students in a school to receive free breakfast and lunch, rather than determine eligibility by individual households. Entire schools or school districts are eligible for free lunches if at least 40% of their students are directly certified to receive free meals, meaning their household participated in a means-based safety net program, such as the <a href="https://fns-prod.azureedge.us/sites/default/files/resource-files/NSLPDirectCertification2016.pdf">Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program</a>, or the child is identified as runaway, homeless, in foster care or enrolled in Head Start. Some states also <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/cn/direct-certification-medicaid-demonstration-project">use Medicaid for direct certification</a>.</p>
<p>The Community Eligibility Provision increases school meal participation by <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2011.300134">reducing the stigma</a> associated with receiving free meals, eliminating the need to complete and process applications and extending access to students in households with incomes above the eligibility threshold for free meals. As of 2023, the eligibility threshold for free meals is 130% of the federal poverty level, which amounts to US$39,000 for a family of four.</p>
<h2>Universal free meals and obesity</h2>
<p>We analyzed whether providing universal free meals at school through the Community Eligibility Provision was associated with lower childhood obesity before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<p>To do this, we measured <a href="https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.2023-063749">changes in obesity prevalence</a> from 2013 to 2019 among 3,531 low-income California schools. We used over 3.5 million body mass index measurements of students in fifth, seventh and ninth grade that were taken annually and aggregated at the school level. To ensure rigorous results, we <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.12.001">accounted for differences</a> between schools that adopted the policy and eligible schools that did not. We also followed the same schools over time, comparing obesity prevalence before and after the policy.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580530/original/file-20240307-24-swy6q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Child scooping food from salad bar onto a tray; other children lean against the wall" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580530/original/file-20240307-24-swy6q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580530/original/file-20240307-24-swy6q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580530/original/file-20240307-24-swy6q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580530/original/file-20240307-24-swy6q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580530/original/file-20240307-24-swy6q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580530/original/file-20240307-24-swy6q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580530/original/file-20240307-24-swy6q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Free school meals may help reduce health disparities among marginalized and low-income children.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/westbrook-middle-school-fifth-grade-student-salem-bukasa-news-photo/469592304">Whitney Hayward/Portland Portland Press Herald via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We found that schools participating in the Community Eligibility Provision had a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.2023-063749">2.4% relative reduction</a> in obesity prevalence compared with eligible schools that did not participate in the provision. Although our findings are modest, even small improvements in obesity levels are notable because effective strategies to reduce obesity at a population level <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41574-019-0176-8">remain elusive</a>. Additionally, because obesity <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.15620/cdc:106273">disproportionately affects</a> racially and ethnically marginalized and low-income children, this policy could contribute to reducing health disparities.</p>
<p>The Community Eligibility Provision likely reduces obesity prevalence by substituting up to half of a child’s weekly diet with healthier options and simultaneously <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2022.102646">freeing up more disposable income</a> for low-to-middle-income families. Families receiving free breakfast and lunch save approximately $4.70 per day per child, or $850 per year. For low-income families, particularly those with multiple school-age children, this could result in meaningful savings that families can use for other health-promoting goods or services.</p>
<h2>Expanding access to school meals</h2>
<p>Childhood obesity <a href="https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.2021-053708">has been</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.14590">increasing over</a> the past several decades. Obesity often <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/obr.12334">continues into adulthood</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/obesity-in-children-is-rising-dramatically-and-it-comes-with-major-and-sometimes-lifelong-health-consequences-202595">and is linked</a> to a range of <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/ajph.2016.303326">chronic health conditions and premature death</a>. </p>
<p>Growing research is showing the benefits of universal free school meals for the health and well-being of children. Along with our study of California schools, other researchers have found an association between universal free school meals and reduced obesity in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/723824">Chile</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssmph.2022.101072">South Korea</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pubecp.2022.100016">England</a>, as well as among <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22175">New York City schools</a> and school districts in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1162/edfp_a_00380">New York state</a>.</p>
<p>Studies have also linked the Community Eligibility Provision to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.57.3.0518-9509R3">improvements in academic performance</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3102/00028312231222266">reductions in suspensions</a>.</p>
<p>While our research observed a reduction in the prevalence of obesity among schools participating in the Community Eligibility Provision relative to schools that did not, obesity increased over time in both groups, with a greater increase among nonparticipating schools.</p>
<p>Universal free meals policies may slow the rise in childhood obesity rates, but they alone will not be sufficient to reverse these trends. Alongside universal free meals, identifying <a href="https://theconversation.com/fixing-the-global-childhood-obesity-epidemic-begins-with-making-healthy-choices-the-easier-choices-and-that-requires-new-laws-and-policies-207975">other population-level strategies</a> to reduce obesity among children is necessary to address this public health issue.</p>
<p>As of 2023, <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/article/5-states-addressing-child-hunger-and-food-insecurity-with-free-school-meals-for-all/">several states have implemented their own</a> universal free school meals policies. States such as California, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota and New Mexico have pledged to cover the difference between school meal expenditures and federal reimbursements. As more states adopt their own universal free meals policies, understanding their effects on child health and well-being, as well as barriers and supports to successfully implementing these programs, will be critical.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223270/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jessica Jones-Smith receives funding from the National Institutes of Health. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Localio does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Since nutrition standards were strengthened in 2010, eating at school provides many students with healthier food than is available cheaply elsewhere. Plus, reducing stigma increases the number of kids getting fed.Anna Localio, Ph.D. Candidate in Health Services, University of WashingtonJessica Jones-Smith, Associate Professor of Health Systems and Population Health, Epidemiology, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2251532024-03-18T12:23:59Z2024-03-18T12:23:59ZBiden and Trump, though old, are both likely to survive to the end of the next president’s term, demographers explain<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581396/original/file-20240312-16-ug5e1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C6%2C4247%2C2965&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump are nearly twice the median age of the U.S. population.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024ChinaUnitedStates/46152c599dd14340abc0595fca447682/photo">AP Photo</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3890">In a recent poll</a>, 67% of Americans surveyed believe that President Joe Biden, 81, is too old to serve another term as president. But only 41% of respondents said they feel that way about former President Donald Trump, who is 77. Both men have stumbled around and have forgotten or mixed up names and events, <a href="https://www.nia.nih.gov/health/memory-loss-and-forgetfulness/memory-problems-forgetfulness-and-aging">which are behaviors that characterize some older people</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=jAfhO2YAAAAJ&hl=en">We</a> are <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=OBIxsGQAAAAJ&hl=en">demographers</a> – not <a href="https://www.salon.com/2024/02/23/dr-john-gartner-on-a-tale-of-two-brains-bidens-brain-is-aging-brain-is-dementing/">scholars of brain function</a> considering people’s cognitive abilities. But there is a question we can answer, one that speaks to concerns about both men’s ages: their life expectancy.</p>
<p>And it turns out that the four-year age difference between Biden and Trump isn’t really much of a difference when it comes to their respective odds of surviving. The statistical odds are good that both would complete a four-year term as president.</p>
<p>We know this because of one of the most versatile <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/population-and-society/5D47EB8139ED72FD59F7379F7D41B4FB">tools of demography</a>, which is called a life table. It’s a table of age groups, usually from 0 to 100 years, showing the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr72/nvsr72-12.pdf#page=14">percentages of the population at any age</a> surviving to a later age. It is based on the age-specific death rates of the population.</p>
<h2>Early record-keeping</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581391/original/file-20240312-28-kj30q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A table of figures representing births and deaths." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581391/original/file-20240312-28-kj30q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581391/original/file-20240312-28-kj30q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581391/original/file-20240312-28-kj30q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581391/original/file-20240312-28-kj30q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581391/original/file-20240312-28-kj30q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581391/original/file-20240312-28-kj30q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581391/original/file-20240312-28-kj30q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A bill of mortality for 1605 and 1606, by John Graunt, an early version of what is now known as a life table.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bill_of_Mortality_1606.jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The life table dates back to <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/John-Graunt">John Graunt, a self-educated citizen of London</a> in the 17th century who is known by many as the <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/population-and-society/references/35C31BCEC27E2B0448B160414E1893BF">founder of demography</a>. <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/41138862">In 1662, Graunt produced and distributed the first life table</a>, showing the probabilities of London’s population surviving from one age to the next.</p>
<p>There are two kinds of life tables. The first is a cohort life table, which represents the death rates and ages for a specific group of people. A cohort table could, for example, document the deaths of all males born in the U.S. in 1940. That table would be very precise, but it wouldn’t be complete until every member of the group had died – so it’s not especially useful for examining the prospects of the living.</p>
<p>As a result, demographers more often use life tables for a current time period, such as the year 2021, which is the date of the most <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr72/nvsr72-12.pdf">current period life table for the U.S.</a></p>
<p>It shows the probabilities of surviving from one age to another age based on the death rates in 2021. </p>
<h2>Statistical documentation</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr72/nvsr72-12.pdf">A period life table for 2021</a> indicates that almost 99% of all people born in the U.S. survive from age 0 to age 20; just over 95% of them survive to age 40, and over 85% to age 60. More than 51% of them live to age 80.</p>
<p>But life tables get much more specific. It’s important to examine life tables’ data for each age, race and gender combination. This is because males don’t live as long as females, Black people don’t live as long as white people, and non-Hispanic people don’t live as long as Hispanic people. There are more specialized life tables that focus on education level and income, but they are not as current and complete as the broader tables.</p>
<p>Biden and Trump are both non-Hispanic white men. Biden is 81 and Trump is 77.</p>
<p>Based on the age-specific death rates of non-Hispanic white men in the U.S. in 2021, Biden has a 92.9% probability of surviving at least to age 82. Trump has a 95.1% probability of surviving to at least age 78. These odds are nearly identical, so each man is very likely to be alive on Inauguration Day 2025, regardless of which of them is being sworn in as president.</p>
<p>What about finishing out that four-year term? <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr72/nvsr72-12.pdf#page=47">Our calculations from the life tables</a> reveal that there is a 63.3% probability that Biden will survive another five years – to at least 86. And there is a 73.6% probability for Trump to survive that period – to at least age 82. Of course, it’s possible either or both will die, but their odds of death are much lower than their odds of survival.</p>
<p>In general, the chances are a bit more favorable for Trump, because he is slightly younger.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581097/original/file-20240311-20-hc2ous.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A table of figures showing how many people of one age survive to a future age." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581097/original/file-20240311-20-hc2ous.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581097/original/file-20240311-20-hc2ous.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581097/original/file-20240311-20-hc2ous.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581097/original/file-20240311-20-hc2ous.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581097/original/file-20240311-20-hc2ous.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581097/original/file-20240311-20-hc2ous.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581097/original/file-20240311-20-hc2ous.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 2021 life table for the U.S. is the most recent available.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr72/nvsr72-12.pdf#page=10">U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Precise calculations</h2>
<p>There are two factors that let us demographers get even more specific. </p>
<p>First, we measure age as exact years. Their age gap is not four years, but 3.5: <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/bios/joseph-r-biden-jr">Biden was born on Nov. 20, 1942</a>, and <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/bios/donald-j-trump">Trump on June 14, 1946</a>. That 10 percentage-point survival advantage for Trump over Biden was based on a four-year age difference. The real difference drops one or two points because they’re not quite so far apart in age.</p>
<p>Second, demographers have shown that <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2648114">people who attend church regularly live longer</a> than those who don’t. This is not because of some divine favor but because churchgoers tend to have more optimistic attitudes, clearer senses of purpose and more regular social interactions and connections. All of these factors extend people’s lives. Biden is a Catholic and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN2AC1X6/">attends Mass weekly, in general</a>. Trump was raised as a Presbyterian but now considers himself to be a “<a href="https://www.deseret.com/2023/10/22/23922731/biden-trump-faith-and-presidential-candidates/">nondenominational Christian</a>,” and he attends religious services very irregularly. So, Biden gets the survival advantage associated with churchgoing. </p>
<p>Other factors come into play with longevity as well, such as marital status, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-10936-2">body mass index scores</a>, diets and levels of physical fitness and exercise. </p>
<h2>A comparison with the American people</h2>
<p>Biden and Trump are <a href="https://theconversation.com/candidates-aging-brains-are-factors-in-the-presidential-race-4-essential-reads-223419">two of the three oldest people</a> ever to serve as president. The population they are seeking to lead is also older than ever before.</p>
<p>The median age of the nation’s population was <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-estimates-characteristics.html">38.9 in 2022</a> compared with <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1972/dec/pc-s1-10.html">28.1 in 1970</a> and just <a href="https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2000/phc/phc-t-09/tab07.pdf">16.7 in 1820</a>. </p>
<p>“<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/opinion/biden-aging-america-population.html">Relative to the age of the population</a>, President Biden is no older than the country’s first presidents,” including Thomas Jefferson, wrote James Chappel, a scholar of aging and history at Duke University, in The New York Times. More recently, Reagan was older than the median American of his time than Biden and Trump are today.</p>
<p>At their second inaugurations, Jefferson was roughly 45 years older than the median age of the U.S. population then, and Reagan 43 years older. If Biden wins a second term, he will be 42 years older than today’s median. If Trump wins in 2024, he will be 38 years older than the current median. </p>
<p>As demographers, we can say it is likely that both Biden and Trump will be alive when the presidential term that begins in 2025 comes to an end in 2029. But as the U.S. population gets older too, the age factor may become less important to voters. This is not an immediate change, however, but one that will likely occur over the next decade or so.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225153/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Detailed data on the ages at which people die can give good indications of a person’s remaining life span.Dudley L. Poston Jr., Professor of Sociology, Texas A&M UniversityRogelio Sáenz, Professor of Demography, The University of Texas at San AntonioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2255322024-03-15T18:07:15Z2024-03-15T18:07:15ZWhy Fani Willis was allowed to stay on as prosecutor of criminal case against Trump in Georgia – and what happens next<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581365/original/file-20240312-24-duwdbt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis listens to final arguments in her disqualification hearing on March 1, 2024, in Atlanta, Ga. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/fulton-county-district-attorney-fani-willis-arrives-for-the-news-photo/2043988459?adppopup=true">Alex Slitz/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In <a href="https://thehill.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/03/20240315-order-on-motion-to-disqualify10.pdf">an unexpected decision</a>, a Georgia judge ruled that the <a href="https://d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/static/2023/08/CRIMINAL-INDICTMENT-Trump-Fulton-County-GA.pdf">conspiracy to commit election intereference</a> case against Donald Trump and several associates <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/fani-willis-trump-georgia-rcna139810">can continue</a> if Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis either steps aside from the case or fires her former boyfriend, whom she hired as special prosecutor. </p>
<p>Within hours of the decision, the special prosecutor, Nathan Wade, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/15/trump-georgia-election-case-can-proceed-if-da-or-prosecutor-removes-themselves.html">stepped down</a>. </p>
<p>The ruling by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/03/12/judge-scott-mcafee-trump-georgia-case-fani-willis/">Fulton County Superior Judge Scott McAfee</a> puts an end to a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/documents/7272229e-032d-4bb2-aec2-afe99ba7ae22.pdf?itid=lk_inline_manual_4">January 2023 motion</a> to have Willis removed from the case for allegedly having <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24401519-willis-wade-response">a personal financial stake</a> in the case by “benefiting from her romantic relationship” with Wade through the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/19/fani-willis-travel-paid-nathan-wade-trump-georgia-case">lavish vacations</a> they took together. </p>
<p>Though <a href="https://apnews.com/article/fani-willis-nathan-wade-trump-indictment-493165c4614761d4b965923696134c09">Willis acknowledged</a> “a personal relationship,” she claimed their relationship started after <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/02/02/who-is-nathan-wade-trump-prosecutor-at-center-of-fani-willis-debacle/?sh=e8251b85a76b">Wade was hired</a> to prosecute Trump.</p>
<p>In his ruling, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/mar/15/biden-trump-election-campaign-supreme-court-latest-updates">McAfee wrote</a> that Willis showed a “<a href="https://thehill.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/03/20240315-order-on-motion-to-disqualify10.pdf">tremendous lapse in judgment</a>” regardless of when the relationship began.</p>
<p>In the case against Trump, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-codefendants-guilty-pleas-georgia-criminal-case-2020-election/">four out of the 19</a> people charged have already pleaded guilty. Trump and the rest of the defendants have pleaded not guilty.</p>
<p>The Conversation asked criminal law scholar <a href="https://hls.harvard.edu/faculty/ronald-s-sullivan/">Ronald Sullivan</a> to make sense of the ruling that allows Willis to continue her prosecution of Trump.</p>
<h2>What just happened?</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A middle aged white man wearing a black robe listens to testimony." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581359/original/file-20240312-24-m0cf9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581359/original/file-20240312-24-m0cf9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581359/original/file-20240312-24-m0cf9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581359/original/file-20240312-24-m0cf9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581359/original/file-20240312-24-m0cf9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581359/original/file-20240312-24-m0cf9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581359/original/file-20240312-24-m0cf9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee listens during a February 2024 hearing to determine whether two prosecutors should be disqualified from Donald Trump’s election interference case in Georgia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/fulton-county-superior-judge-scott-mcafee-looks-on-during-a-news-photo/2006230461?adppopup=true">Alyssa Pointer/Pool via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Judge McAfee entered a mixed ruling that caught most legal observers by surprise. He found that Trump’s defense team did not put forward sufficient evidence to show that Willis had an actual conflict of interest. </p>
<p>To the contrary, McAfee found that the value of Willis’ alleged benefit was less than $15,000 and did not support charges that Willis, who makes over $200,000 a year and was not experiencing any financial hardships, needed or relied on her relationship with Wade. </p>
<p>Though McAfee found <a href="https://thehill.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/03/20240315-order-on-motion-to-disqualify10.pdf">no actual conflict of interest</a>, he did find the appearance of a conflict. That means a reasonable person might believe that Willis’ actions as a prosecutor were compromised by her relationship with Wade. </p>
<p>On this basis, <a href="https://thehill.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/03/20240315-order-on-motion-to-disqualify10.pdf">McAfee ruled</a> that the existence of a romantic relationship presents an appearance of a conflict of interest. In order to cure this conflict, either Willis or Wade had to resign. </p>
<p>With Wade’s resignation, Willis will assign a different lawyer to the case. </p>
<h2>What would have happened if the judge ruled against Willis?</h2>
<p>Trump’s case <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-georgia-2020-election-case-what-if-fani-willis-disqualified/">would have been handed over</a> to a state entity called the <a href="https://pacga.org/">Prosecuting Attorneys’ Council of Georgia</a>. The agency would then have appointed another Georgia district attorney’s office to take up the prosecution.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A Black man dressed in a dark suit sits at a table with his hands held together." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581364/original/file-20240312-24-ql2deq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581364/original/file-20240312-24-ql2deq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581364/original/file-20240312-24-ql2deq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581364/original/file-20240312-24-ql2deq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581364/original/file-20240312-24-ql2deq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581364/original/file-20240312-24-ql2deq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581364/original/file-20240312-24-ql2deq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Special prosecutor Nathan Wade appears in court during his disqualification hearing on March 1, 2024, in Atlanta, Ga.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/special-prosecutor-nathan-wade-sits-in-court-during-a-news-photo/2043986656?adppopup=true">Alex Slitz/Pool via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In normal cases, Georgia lawyers report that this is a long and slow process. Given the magnitude of the Trump case, this process would have taken even longer. Significantly, the new prosecutor would not be bound by any decisions made by Willis’ office and could have even declined to prosecute the case altogether.</p>
<h2>What’s the takeaway from the judge’s decision against Willis?</h2>
<p>The judge essentially split the baby. By finding there is no actual conflict of interest, Willis is permitted to stay in the case. But Wade was forced to quit because of the appearance of a conflict.</p>
<p><iframe id="tYrfU" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/tYrfU/12/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The judge landed a few judicial jabs regarding Willis’ behavior that the Trump team will use to undermine the public’s faith in the district attorney’s office.</p>
<p>In a line that the Trump team surely will repeat, the <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24401519-willis-wade-response">judge wrote</a> that an “odor of mendacity” exists with respect to Willis and the prosecution’s witnesses.</p>
<h2>Where does the ruling leave Willis?</h2>
<p>Prosecutors’ offices trade on the trust that juries give to the office. If that trust is eroded, the impact is often felt in “not guilty” trial verdicts when juries don’t trust what prosecutors say. Although Willis dodged a bullet by being able to stay in the case, she will have to manage the harm to her reputation. </p>
<h2>What is the status of Trump’s case?</h2>
<p>The case will proceed as before. Willis will likely appoint a senior attorney from within her office to lead the case, and that lawyer will pick up where Wade left the case.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated March 15, 2024, to reflect Nathan Wade’s resignation.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225532/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ronald S. Sullivan Jr. does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Though a Georgia judge strongly criticized the decision-making of Fani Willis, he did not kick her off the case against Donald Trump and his efforts to overthrow the 2020 presidential election.Ronald S. Sullivan Jr., Professor of Law, Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2257492024-03-15T15:15:16Z2024-03-15T15:15:16ZIs TikTok’s parent company an agent of the Chinese state? In China Inc., it’s a little more complicated<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582050/original/file-20240314-28-369bin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C5%2C3553%2C2358&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Some U.S. lawmakers have grown concerned about TikTok.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-walk-past-an-advertisement-featuring-the-tiktok-logo-news-photo/2075608549?adppopup=true">Greg Baker/AFP via Getty Images.</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Does the Chinese government have officials inside TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, pulling the strings? And does the storing of data from the popular social media app outside of China protect Americans?</p>
<p>These questions appear to dominate the current thinking in the U.S. over <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/13/technology/tiktok-ban-house-vote.html">whether to ban TikTok</a> if its owner, Chinese technology giant ByteDance, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/14/tiktok-ban-china-would-block-sale-of-short-video-app.html">refuses to sell the platform</a>.</p>
<p>But in my opinion – forged through <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=vXeBa0kAAAAJ&hl=en">40 years as a scholar of China, its political economy and business</a> – both questions obscure a more interesting point. What’s more, they suggest a crucial misunderstanding of the relationship between state and private enterprise in China.</p>
<p>Simply put, there’s no clear line between the state and society in China in the same way that there is in democracies. The Chinese Communist Party – which is synonymous with the Chinese state – both owns and is the nation. And that goes for private enterprises, too. They operate like joint ventures in which the government is both a partner and the ultimate boss. Both sides know that – even if that relationship isn’t expressly codified and recognizable to outside onlookers.</p>
<h2>ByteDance under the microscope</h2>
<p>Take ByteDance. The company has become the focus of scrutiny in the U.S. largely due to the outsized influence that its subsidiary <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2024/02/22/how-u-s-adults-use-tiktok/">plays in the lives of young Americans</a>. Some <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-house-vote-force-bytedance-divest-tiktok-or-face-ban-2024-03-13/">170 million Americans</a> are TikTok users, and U.S. politicians fear their data has a direct route back to the Chinese state via ByteDance, which has its head offices in Beijing.</p>
<p>Location aside, concerned voices in the U.S. cite the evidence of former ByteDance employees who suggest <a href="https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-china-bytedance-user-data-d257d98125f69ac80f983e6067a84911">interference from the Chinese government</a>, and reports that the state has quietly <a href="https://www.theinformation.com/articles/beijing-tightens-grip-on-bytedance-by-quietly-taking-stake-china-board-seat">taken a direct stake and a board seat</a> at Beijing ByteDance Technology Co. Ltd., ByteDance’s Chinese subsidiary.</p>
<p>Grilled by the House Committee on Energy and Commerce in March 2023, TikTok’s Singaporean CEO Shou Zi Chew <a href="https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-ceo-congressional-hearing-bytedance-china-44d948c5b0ba18e2a714e0fa62d52779">said unequivocally</a> that ByteDance was not “an agent of China or any other country.”</p>
<p>The history of the Chinese government’s dealings with private companies suggests something more subtle, however.</p>
<h2>The rise of China Inc.</h2>
<p>Over its century-long history, the Chinese Communist Party has sought to exercise control over all aspects of the country, including its economy. In its early days, this control took the form of a heavy-handed <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/command-economy.asp">command economy</a> in which everything was produced and consumed according to government planning.</p>
<p>China took a step in a more capitalist direction in the latter half of the 20th century after the death of Mao Zedong, founder of the People’s Republic of China. But even the <a href="https://www.cato.org/publications/chinas-post-1978-economic-development-entry-global-trading-system">reforms of Deng Xiaoping</a> in the late 1970s and 1980s – credited for opening up China’s economy – were in the service of party goals. Because China’s economy was in ruins, the party’s emphasis was on economic development, and it loosened its grip on power to encourage that. The continuation of party control was still paramount – it just needed to reform the economy to ensure that goal.</p>
<p>That didn’t mean the party wanted pluralism. After decades of economic growth, and with a GDP surpassing that of the U.S. when <a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3085501/china-overtakes-us-no-1-buying-power-still-clings-developing">measured by purchasing power parity</a>, the Chinese government once again started to shift its focus to a comprehensive control of China.</p>
<p>In recent years, under the increasingly <a href="https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2022-11/Chapter_1--CCP_Decision-Making_and_Xi_Jinpings_Centralization_of_Authority.pdf">centralized control of Xi Jinping</a>, the Chinese government has evidently opted to run the entire country as a <a href="http://doi.org/10.1108/IJOEM-12-2019-1103">giant corporation</a>, with the ruling party as its management.</p>
<h2>A party with unusual power</h2>
<p>Unlike political parties in democracies, which people freely join and leave, the Chinese Communist Party resembles a secret society. <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/download/Constitution_of_the_Communist_Party_of_China.pdf">To join</a>, you need to be introduced by two party members and tested for an extended period, and then pledge to die for the party’s cause. Quitting it also <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com//politics/2017-02/05/c_1120413145.htm">needs approval by the party</a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/corg.12023">Orders are implicit</a>, and protecting one’s superior is crucial. </p>
<p>People who don’t cooperate face serious consequences. In 2022, an official warned a resident who disobeyed the official’s order in COVID-19 testing that three generations of the resident’s descendants <a href="https://www.rfa.org/cantonese/news/generation-05122022062839.html">would be adversely affected</a> if he were uncooperative. The same is true of businesses: Ride-sharing company Didi incurred the party’s displeasure by listing its stocks in the U.S., and was harshly punished and forced to delist as a result – <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/china-fines-didi-global-12-bln-violating-data-security-laws-2022-07-21/">losing more than 80% of its value</a>. </p>
<p>Since those who disobey the party are weeded out or are punished and seen to have learned their lessons, all surviving and successful private businesses are <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/jack-ma-makes-ant-offer-to-placate-chinese-regulators-11608479629?page=1">party supporters</a> – either voluntarily or otherwise.</p>
<p>The rapid emergence of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009076210">China Inc.</a> has caught even seasoned Chinese entrepreneurs off guard. Consider the case of <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/07/28/1021651586/chinese-billionaire-sun-dawu-is-sentenced-to-18-years-for-provoking-trouble">Sun Dawu</a>, a successful agricultural entrepreneur known for advocating for rural reform and the rights of farmers. That offended the party, and in 2020, authorities confiscated all his assets and sentenced him to 18 years in prison.</p>
<p>As if that weren’t enough, China’s National Intelligence Law granted broad powers to the country’s spy agencies and obligates companies to assist with intelligence efforts. That’s why some American lawmakers are concerned that ByteDance could be <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/will-the-us-crack-down-on-tiktok-six-questions-and-expert-answers-about-the-bill-in-congress/">forced to hand over Americans’ private data</a> to the Chinese state. <a href="https://newsroom.tiktok.com/en-au/the-truth-about-tiktok">TikTok denies</a> this is the case. However, recently <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/leaked-hacking-files-show-chinese-spying-on-citizens-and-foreigners-alike">leaked files</a> of I-Soon, a Chinese hacking firm, reveal public-private collusion in data sharing is common in China.</p>
<p>That’s why I’m not convinced by TikTok’s argument that American users’ data is safe because it’s stored <a href="https://newsroom.tiktok.com/en-us/tiktok-facts-how-we-secure-personal-information-and-store-data">outside of China</a>, in the U.S., Malaysia and Singapore. I also don’t think it’s relevant whether the party has members on the ByteDance board or gives explicit orders to TikTok.</p>
<p>Regardless of whether ByteDance has formal ties with the party, there will be the tacit understanding that the management is working for two bosses: the investors of the company and – more importantly – their political overseers that represent the party. But most importantly, when the interests of the two bosses conflict, the party trumps.</p>
<p>As such, as long as ByteDance owns TikTok, I believe ByteDance will use TikTok to support the party – not just for its own business survival, but for the safety of the personnel of ByteDance and TikTok, and their families.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225749/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shaomin Li does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In China, ‘private’ businesses aren’t entirely private and the ultimate boss is the CCP, not the CEO.Shaomin Li, Eminent Scholar and Professor of International Business, Old Dominion UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2258362024-03-15T12:53:39Z2024-03-15T12:53:39Z‘Gross negligence’: why a parent like James Crumbley can be found guilty for their child’s crimes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582010/original/file-20240314-20-jx2q3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1203%2C53%2C1791%2C1940&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">James Crumbley appears in court on March 13, 2024, during his trial on charges of involuntary manslaughter. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/james-crumbley-the-father-of-oxford-high-school-school-news-photo/2074373220?adppopup=true">Bill Pugliano/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a case of what prosecutors described as “gross negligence,” a Michigan jury convicted James Crumbley on charges of involuntary manslaughter <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/13/us/james-crumbley-school-shooter-father-trial/index.html">for his role</a> in his son’s deadly rampage at Oxford High School nearly three years ago. </p>
<p>Crumbley’s conviction follows the similar fate of his wife, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/jennifer-crumbley-trial-verdict-rcna136937">Jennifer Crumbley</a>, who was convicted on Feb. 6, 2024, for her role in the slayings that left four high school teenagers dead and another seven injured.</p>
<p>Both face a maximum <a href="https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2021/12/04/oxford-shooting-heres-what-charges-potential-sentences-suspects-parents-are-facing/">prison sentence of 60 years</a> and fines up to US$30,000. </p>
<p>In December 2023, their son, <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/crime/michigan-shooting-suspect-ethan-crumbley-b1975865.html">Ethan Crumbley</a>, was sentenced to life in prison without parole for the Nov. 30, 2021, shooting in which he killed four people and wounded seven others. </p>
<h2>Were the parents responsible?</h2>
<p>Many were surprised when <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/oakland-county/2021/12/14/court-hearing-parents-accused-oxford-high-school-shooter/6470468001/">the Crumbleys</a> were charged for their alleged role in the tragedy.</p>
<p>Criminal law, unlike civil law, is less likely to hold defendants liable for the actions of a third party, even if that third party is the defendant’s child. This is because in criminal law defendants face incarceration and the associated stigma that comes with a conviction. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Ethan Crumbley, as seen in a police mug shot." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437904/original/file-20211215-21-9autxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437904/original/file-20211215-21-9autxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437904/original/file-20211215-21-9autxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437904/original/file-20211215-21-9autxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437904/original/file-20211215-21-9autxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437904/original/file-20211215-21-9autxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437904/original/file-20211215-21-9autxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ethan Crumbley was convicted of fatally shooting four students at Oxford High School.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-this-undated-handout-photo-provided-by-the-oakland-news-photo/1237057035?adppopup=true">Photo by Oakland County Sheriff's Office via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the rare instances that <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/9-years-after-sandy-hook-oxford-shooting-sees-parents-prosecuted-unprecedented-move-1659265">parents of school shooters are prosecuted</a>, they were normally charged with crimes such as child abuse, child neglect and the failure to properly secure a firearm. The charge lodged against the Crumbleys, <a href="https://www.justia.com/criminal/offenses/homicide/involuntary-manslaughter/">involuntary manslaughter</a>, also known as gross negligent homicide, was even more uncommon. </p>
<p>But it’s not without precedent. </p>
<p>In 2000, <a href="https://www.mlive.com/news/2020/02/20-years-after-kayla-rolland-the-fatal-first-grade-shooting-that-sparked-a-national-gun-debate.html">Jamelle James</a>, a Michigan resident, pleaded no contest to involuntary manslaughter for leaving his handgun in a shoebox in his bedroom. At the time, James lived in an apartment that prosecutors described as a “flophouse” that was shared with a number of people, including two young children. </p>
<p>A 6-year-old boy – James’ nephew – was temporarily living in the apartment and discovered the gun, brought it to school and fatally shot his first grade classmate Kayla Rolland. James spent more than two years in prison before he was released on probation.</p>
<p>Prosecutors claimed that James’ conduct was “grossly negligent” and “so reckless as to demonstrate a substantial lack of concern for whether an injury resulted.” </p>
<p>Arguably, leaving an unsecured gun around very young children demonstrated James’ gross negligence. </p>
<h2>‘Egregious’ behavior</h2>
<p>One of the key questions that faced jurors in the Crumbley case was whether the parents knew that a school shooting would occur or had reckless disregard of this fact. To prove the parents’ <a href="https://dictionary.law.com/Default.aspx?selected=838">gross negligence</a>, the prosecution relied on a series of alleged facts.</p>
<p>Among the most central facts was that the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/03/us/crumbley-parents-charged-michigan-shooting.html">Crumbleys bought their son the handgun</a> as a Christmas present and later took him to target practice.</p>
<p>Neither parent informed the school that they had bought the gun and that their son had access to it.</p>
<p>After being told that her son was searching for ammo on his phone at school, Jennifer Crumbley told her son <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-59523682">via text message</a> not to get caught: “LOL I’m not mad. You have to learn not to get caught.” </p>
<p>Neither of the parents opted to remove their son from school after being told that a teacher found a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2021/12/05/michigan-school-shooting/">disturbing drawing of a bloody figure</a> in his desk.</p>
<p>Finally, the gun was unsecured.</p>
<p>James Crumbley was “not on trial for what his son did,” Oakland County Prosecutor Karen McDonald said <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/13/us/james-crumbley-school-shooter-father-trial/index.html">during closing arguments</a> on Feb. 13, 2024. Rather, he was on trial for “what he did and what he didn’t do.”</p>
<p>Unlike his wife, Crumbley <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/prosecution-rests-case-james-crumbley-trial-chaos-school-shooting-show-rcna142766">declined to testify</a>. “It is my decision to remain silent,” he said.</p>
<p>His defense lawyers presented only one witness, Crumbley’s sister, Karen. She <a href="https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/james-crumbley-trial-day-5-recap-sister-testifies-jury-instructions">testified that she had visited</a> her brother’s family a few months before the shootings and everything appeared normal.</p>
<h2>Changing the laws</h2>
<p>In the Jamelle James case, the 6-year-old who shot his classmate was never charged with a crime because most jurisdictions hold that children under the age of 7 are <a href="https://nap.nationalacademies.org/read/9747/chapter/7">unable to formulate</a> criminal intent. </p>
<p>The same cannot be said for Ethan Crumbley, who was 15 years old at the time of the shootings. He was <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/12/02/oxford-michigan-shooting-charges-ethan-crumbley-explained/8835757002/">charged with four counts</a> of first-degree murder, one count of terrorism causing death, seven counts of assault with intent to murder and 12 counts of possession of a firearm in the commission of a felony. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Oakland County Prosecuting Attorney Karen McDonald answers questions at news conference." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437893/original/file-20211215-25-cm5btl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437893/original/file-20211215-25-cm5btl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437893/original/file-20211215-25-cm5btl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437893/original/file-20211215-25-cm5btl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437893/original/file-20211215-25-cm5btl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437893/original/file-20211215-25-cm5btl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437893/original/file-20211215-25-cm5btl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Oakland County prosecuting attorney Karen McDonald announces on Dec. 3, 2021, that charges have been filed against the parents of Oxford High School gunman Ethan Crumbley.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/oakland-county-prosecuting-attorney-karen-mcdonald-news-photo/1356998362?adppopup=true">Scott Olson/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Many people on both sides of the gun safety debate <a href="https://quchronicle.com/75407/opinion/oxford-is-yet-another-example-why-parents-of-school-shooters-should-be-held-responsible/">have applauded McDonald’s efforts</a> to hold people responsible for allowing guns to fall into the hands of children.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/explainer-how-unusual-to-charge-parents-in-school-shooting">According to a 2019 assessment by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security</a>, 76% of the guns used in school shootings came from a parent or close relative, and approximately half the weapons were easily accessible. </p>
<p>At the time of the Oxford High School shootings, Michigan had no law requiring guns to be properly stored away from juveniles.</p>
<p>But two weeks after the Oxford shootings, for example, U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a Michigan Democrat, <a href="https://detroit.cbslocal.com/2021/12/15/michigan-rep-elissa-slotkin-introduces-legislation-requiring-safe-storage-of-firearms-in-wake-of-oxford-school-shooting/">proposed a federal law</a> holding parents or other responsible adults liable for failing to secure their firearms. </p>
<p>That federal proposal became part of a state legislative package
<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/a-look-at-gun-laws-set-to-take-effect-in-2024/">signed into law</a> April 13, 2023, by Michigan Gov. <a href="https://www.michigan.gov/whitmer/news/press-releases/2023/04/13/whitmer-signs-commonsense-gun-violence-prevention-legislation-to-keep-michigan-communities-safe">Gretchen Whitmer</a>.</p>
<p>The new laws took effect on Jan. 1, 2024. They established universal background checks for all firearm purchases and <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2023/08/13/michigan-gun-laws-background-checks-storage-red-flags-changes/70432935007/">safe storage requirements</a> designed to keep guns out of the hands of children.</p>
<p><em>Some material used in <a href="https://theconversation.com/michigan-mother-convicted-of-manslaughter-for-school-shootings-by-her-son-after-buying-him-a-gun-and-letting-him-keep-it-unsecured-222731">this story</a> was originally published on Feb. 6, 2024.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225836/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thaddeus Hoffmeister does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>James and Jennifer Crumbley purchased a handgun for their son as a Christmas present. Ethan Crumbley used that gun to kill 4 of his high school classmates.Thaddeus Hoffmeister, Professor of Law, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2251562024-03-15T12:31:02Z2024-03-15T12:31:02ZHow ‘Dune’ became a beacon for the fledgling environmental movement − and a rallying cry for the new science of ecology<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581996/original/file-20240314-18-4kv29v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C26%2C5983%2C3967&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Oregon's Umpqua Dunes inspired the desert planet Arrakis in Frank Herbert's 'Dune.'</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sand-dunes-at-umpqua-dunes-oregon-dunes-national-recreation-news-photo/1150491467?adppopup=true">VWPics/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>“<a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/series/AU8/dune/">Dune</a>,” widely considered one of the <a href="https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/books/g39358054/best-sci-fi-books/">best sci-fi novels of all time</a>, continues to influence how writers, artists and inventors envision the future. </p>
<p>Of course, there are Denis Villeneuve’s visually stunning films, “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1160419/">Dune: Part One</a>” (2021) and “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt15239678/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_3_tt_7_nm_1_q_dune">Dune: Part Two</a>” (2024).</p>
<p>But Frank Herbert’s masterpiece also helped Afrofuturist novelist <a href="https://www.salon.com/2015/08/13/dune_climate_fiction_pioneer_the_ecological_lessons_of_frank_herberts_sci_fi_masterpiece_were_ahead_of_its_time/">Octavia Butler</a> imagine a future of conflict amid environmental catastrophe; it inspired <a href="https://www.inverse.com/article/46547-elon-musk-is-running-tesla-spacex-like-the-plot-of-dune">Elon Musk</a> to build SpaceX and Tesla and push humanity toward the stars and a greener future; and it’s hard not to see parallels in <a href="https://screenrant.com/star-wars-dune-story-concepts-ideas-lucas-copy/#people-survive-the-desert-the-same-way">George Lucas’</a> “Star Wars” franchise, especially their fascination with desert planets and giant worms.</p>
<p>And yet when Herbert sat down in 1963 to start writing “Dune,” he wasn’t thinking about how to leave Earth behind. He was thinking about how to save it. </p>
<p>Herbert wanted to tell a story about the environmental crisis on our own planet, a world driven to the edge of ecological catastrophe. Technologies that had been inconceivable just 50 years prior had put the world at the edge of nuclear war and the environment on the brink of collapse; massive industries were sucking wealth from the ground and spewing toxic fumes into the sky.</p>
<p>When the book was published, these themes were front and center for readers, too. After all, they were living in the wake of both the Cuban missile crisis and the publication of “<a href="https://www.nrdc.org/stories/story-silent-spring">Silent Spring</a>,” conservationist Rachel Carson’s landmark study of pollution and its threat to the environment and human health.</p>
<p>“Dune” soon became a beacon for the fledgling environmental movement and a rallying flag for the new science of ecology.</p>
<h2>Indigenous wisdoms</h2>
<p>Though the term “ecology” had been coined almost a century earlier, the first textbook on ecology was <a href="https://www.bioexplorer.net/history_of_biology/ecology/">not written until 1953</a>, and the field was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/search?dropmab=false&endDate=1966-01-01&query=ecology&sort=best&startDate=1963-01-01">rarely mentioned</a> in newspapers or magazines at the time. Few readers had heard of the emerging science, and even fewer knew what it suggested about the future of our planet. </p>
<p>While studying “Dune” for a book I’m writing on the history of ecology, I was surprised to learn that Herbert didn’t learn about ecology as a student or as a journalist. </p>
<p>Instead, he was inspired to explore ecology by the conservation practices of the tribes of the Pacific Northwest. He learned about them from two friends in particular. </p>
<p>The first was <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilbur_Ternyik">Wilbur Ternyik</a>, a descendant of Chief Coboway, the Clatsop leader who welcomed explorers Meriwether Lewis and William Clark when <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Lewis-and-Clark-Expedition">their expedition</a> reached the West Coast in 1805. The second, <a href="https://funerals.coop/obituaries/2018-obituaries/july-2018/howard-hansen.html">Howard Hansen</a>, was an art teacher and oral historian of the Quileute tribe.</p>
<p>Ternyik, who was also an expert field ecologist, took Herbert on a tour of Oregon’s dunes in 1958. There, he explained his work to build massive dunes of sand using beach grasses and other deep-rooted plants in order to prevent the sands from blowing into the nearby town of Florence – <a href="https://www.earth.com/earthpedia-articles/terraforming/">a terraforming technology</a> described at length in “Dune.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Beach grasses planted in sand dunes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582000/original/file-20240314-24-jn6atf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582000/original/file-20240314-24-jn6atf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582000/original/file-20240314-24-jn6atf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582000/original/file-20240314-24-jn6atf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582000/original/file-20240314-24-jn6atf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582000/original/file-20240314-24-jn6atf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582000/original/file-20240314-24-jn6atf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Beach grasses and other plants help secure the sand dunes of Oregon’s coasts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/dune-grass-along-the-coast-of-oregon-usa-news-photo/687657578?adppopup=true">Edwin Remsburg/VW Pics via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>As Ternyik explains <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/3147/Turnyik.USDA_SCS.DunesManual.pdf?1710454532">in a handbook</a> he wrote for the U.S. Department of Agriculture, his work in Oregon was part of an effort to heal landscapes scarred by European colonization, especially the large river jetties built by early settlers. </p>
<p>These structures disturbed coastal currents and created vast expanses of sand, turning stretches of the lush Pacific Northwest landscape into desert. This scenario is echoed in “Dune,” where the novel’s setting, <a href="https://www.sciencenews.org/article/dune-planet-climate-plausible-science-sandworms">the planet Arrakis</a>, was similarly laid to waste by its first colonizers.</p>
<p>Hansen, who became the godfather to Herbert’s son, had closely studied the equally drastic impact logging had on the homelands of the <a href="https://quileutenation.org/history/">Quileute people</a> in coastal Washington. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/23/opinion/culture/dune-frank-herbert-native-americans.html">He encouraged Herbert</a> to examine ecology carefully, giving him a copy of Paul B. Sears’ “<a href="https://archive.org/details/wherethereislife0000paul/page/n7/mode/2up">Where There is Life</a>,” from which <a href="https://www.oreilly.com/tim/herbert/ch03.html">Herbert gathered</a> one of his favorite quotes: “The highest function of science is to give us an understanding of consequences.”</p>
<p><a href="https://screenrant.com/dune-movie-2021-fremen-origin-explained/">The Fremen</a> of “Dune,” who live in the deserts of Arrakis and carefully manage its ecosystem and wildlife, embody these teachings. In the fight to save their world, they expertly blend ecological science and Indigenous practices. </p>
<h2>Treasures hidden in the sand</h2>
<p>But the work that had the most profound impact on “Dune” was Leslie Reid’s 1962 ecological study “<a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Sociology_of_Nature.html?id=Ag22AAAAIAAJ">The Sociology of Nature</a>.”</p>
<p>In it, Reid explained ecology and ecosystem science for a popular audience, illustrating the complex interdependence of all creatures within the environment. </p>
<p>“The more deeply ecology is studied,” Reid writes, “the clearer does it become that mutual dependence is a governing principle, that animals are bound to one another by unbreakable ties of dependence.”</p>
<p>In the pages of Reid’s book, Herbert found a model for the ecosystem of Arrakis in a surprising place: the guano islands of Peru. As Reid explains, the accumulated bird droppings found on these islands was an ideal fertilizer. Home to mountains of manure described as a new “<a href="https://scholarsbank.uoregon.edu/xmlui/handle/1794/27727">white gold</a>” and one of the most valuable substances on Earth, the guano islands became in the late 1800s ground zero for a series of resource wars between Spain and several of its former colonies, including Peru, Bolivia, Chile and Ecuador. </p>
<p>At the heart of the plot of “Dune” is a battle for control of the “spice,” a priceless resource. Harvested from the sands of the desert planet, it’s both a luxurious flavoring for food and a hallucinogenic drug that allows some people to bend space, making interstellar travel possible. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A pencil drawing of two men standing in a sea of birds." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581978/original/file-20240314-23-fbl8im.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581978/original/file-20240314-23-fbl8im.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581978/original/file-20240314-23-fbl8im.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581978/original/file-20240314-23-fbl8im.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581978/original/file-20240314-23-fbl8im.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581978/original/file-20240314-23-fbl8im.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581978/original/file-20240314-23-fbl8im.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In the 19th century, guano from Peru was a valuable commodity used for fertilizer.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-illustration-of-birds-and-guano-on-an-island-off-the-news-photo/615336378?adppopup=true">Corbis Historical/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There is some irony in the fact that Herbert cooked up the idea of spice from bird droppings. But he was fascinated by Reid’s careful account of the unique and efficient ecosystem that produced a valuable – albeit noxious – commodity.</p>
<p>As the ecologist explains, frigid currents in the Pacific Ocean push nutrients to the surface of nearby waters, helping photosynthetic plankton thrive. These support an astounding population of fish that feed hordes of birds, along with whales. </p>
<p>In early drafts of “Dune,” Herbert combined all of these stages into the life cycle of the giant sandworms, football field-sized monsters that prowl the desert sands and devour everything in their path. </p>
<p>Herbert imagines each of these terrifying creatures beginning as small, photosynthetic plants that grow into larger “sand trout.” Eventually, they become immense sandworms that churn the desert sands, spewing spice onto the surface.</p>
<p>In both the book and “Dune: Part One,” soldier Gurney Halleck recites a cryptic verse that comments on this inversion of marine life and arid regimes of extraction: “For they shall suck of the abundance of the seas and of the treasure hid in the sand.”</p>
<h2>‘Dune’ revolutions</h2>
<p>After “Dune” was published in 1965, the environmental movement eagerly embraced it.</p>
<p>Herbert spoke at Philadelphia’s first Earth Day in 1970, and in the first edition of the <a href="https://wholeearth.info/">Whole Earth Catalog</a> – a famous DIY manual and bulletin for environmental activists – “Dune” was advertised with the tagline: “The metaphor is ecology. The theme revolution.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Black and white photo of beareded man sitting in a chair and posing for the camera." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581973/original/file-20240314-20-zaaj5r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581973/original/file-20240314-20-zaaj5r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581973/original/file-20240314-20-zaaj5r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581973/original/file-20240314-20-zaaj5r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581973/original/file-20240314-20-zaaj5r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581973/original/file-20240314-20-zaaj5r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581973/original/file-20240314-20-zaaj5r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Frank Herbert spoke at Philadelphia’s first Earth Day in 1970.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/FrankHerbert/c8e4e5b356c240aaac0b6ff27fe17c33/photo?Query=frank%20herbert&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1&currentItemNo=0">AP Photo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the opening of Denis Villeneuve’s first adaptation, “Dune,” Chani, an indigenous Fremen played by Zendaya, asks a question that anticipates the violent conclusion of the second film: “Who will our next oppressors be?”</p>
<p>The immediate cut to a sleeping Paul Atreides, the white protagonist who’s played by Timothée Chalamet, drives the pointed anti-colonial message home like a knife. In fact, both of Villeneuve’s movies expertly elaborate upon the anti-colonial themes of Herbert’s novels. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, the edge of their environmental critique is blunted. But Villeneuve has <a href="https://theplaylist.net/dune-messiah-denis-villeneuve-says-florence-pugh-anya-taylor-joy-give-him-the-will-do-another-one-20240311/">suggested that</a> he might also adapt “<a href="https://prhinternationalsales.com/book/?isbn=9780593098233">Dune Messiah</a>” for his next film in the series – a novel in which the ecological damage to Arrakis is glaringly obvious.</p>
<p>I hope Herbert’s prescient ecological warning, which resonated so powerfully with readers back in the 1960s, will be unsheathed in “Dune 3.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225156/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Devin Griffiths does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When Frank Herbert sat down in 1963 to start writing ‘Dune,’ he wasn’t thinking about how to leave Earth behind. He was thinking about how to save it.Devin Griffiths, Associate Professor of English and Comparative Literature, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2254922024-03-15T12:12:13Z2024-03-15T12:12:13ZTrump wouldn’t be the first presidential candidate to campaign from a prison cell<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580950/original/file-20240311-16-kra9cy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3949%2C2877&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Eugene Debs, center, imprisoned at the Atlanta Federal Prison, was notified of his nomination for the presidency on the socialist ticket by a delegation of leading socialists who came from New York to Atlanta.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/for-the-first-time-in-history-a-candidate-for-president-has-news-photo/530858130?adppopup=true">George Rinhart/Corbis via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The first trial ever of a former president, the so-called “hush money” case against former president and likely GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump, is scheduled to begin with jury selection in New York <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-hush-money-new-york-criminal-case-fbdff18df40920b75873b3a40317f5ee">on March 25, 2024</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/14/nyregion/alvin-bragg-trump-trial-delay.html">though that may be delayed</a> by a month. Trump faces <a href="https://manhattanda.org/district-attorney-bragg-announces-34-count-felony-indictment-of-former-president-donald-j-trump/">34 felony charges</a> related to alleged crimes involving bookkeeping on a payment to an adult film actress <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/04/04/nyregion/trump-indictment-annotated.html">during the 2016 presidential campaign</a>.</p>
<p>Trump is unlikely to wind up in an orange jumpsuit, at least not on this indictment, and probably not before November 2024, in any case. Yet if he does, he would not be the first candidate to run for the White House from the Big House. </p>
<p>In the election of 1920, Eugene V. Debs, the Socialist Party presidential candidate, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Eugene-V-Debs">polled nearly a million votes</a> without ever hitting the campaign trail. </p>
<p>Debs was behind bars in the federal penitentiary in Atlanta, serving a <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/fiery-socialist-challenged-nations-role-wwi-180969386/">10-year sentence for sedition</a>. It was a not a bum rap. Debs had defiantly disobeyed a law he deemed unjust, <a href="https://www.mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/1239/sedition-act-of-1918">the Sedition Act of 1918</a>. </p>
<p>The act was an anti-free speech measure passed <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/historic-document-library/detail/espionage-act-of-1917-and-sedition-act-of-1918-1917-1918">at the behest of President Woodrow Wilson</a>. The law made it <a href="https://govtrackus.s3.amazonaws.com/legislink/pdf/stat/40/STATUTE-40-Pg553.pdf">illegal for a U.S. citizen</a> to “willfully utter, print, write, or publish any disloyal, profane, scurrilous, or abusive language about the United States government” or to discourage compliance with the draft or voluntary enlistment into the military.</p>
<p>By the time he was imprisoned for sedition, Eugene Victor Debs had enjoyed a lifetime of running afoul of government authority. <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Eugene-V-Debs">Born in 1855</a> into bourgeois comfort in Terre Haute, Indiana, he worked as a clerk and a grocer before joining the Brotherhood of Locomotive Firemen in 1875 and finding his vocation as an <a href="https://debsfoundation.org/index.php/landing/debs-biography/">advocate for labor</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520533/original/file-20230412-18-1i8t9k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A balding man's profile illustrating an old newspaper article headlined 'There will be work for all and wealth for all willing to work for it.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520533/original/file-20230412-18-1i8t9k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520533/original/file-20230412-18-1i8t9k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520533/original/file-20230412-18-1i8t9k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520533/original/file-20230412-18-1i8t9k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520533/original/file-20230412-18-1i8t9k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520533/original/file-20230412-18-1i8t9k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520533/original/file-20230412-18-1i8t9k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Eugene Debs ran for president five times, including in 1904, when he wrote this column for The Spokane Press.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn88085947/1904-10-26/ed-1/seq-3/">Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Representing American socialism</h2>
<p>For the next 30 years, Debs was the <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/02/18/eugene-v-debs-and-the-endurance-of-socialism">face of socialism in America</a>. He <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Eugene-V-Debs">ran for president four times</a>, in 1900, 1904, 1908 and 1912, garnering around a million votes in the last cycle.</p>
<p>“The Republican, Democratic, and Progressive Parties are but branches of the same capitalistic tree,” <a href="https://ehistory.osu.edu/exhibitions/1912/content/SocialistParty">he told a cheering mass of people</a> in Madison Square Garden in New York during the 1912 campaign. “They all stand for wage slavery.” </p>
<p>In 1916, he opted to <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Eugene-V-Debs">seek a seat in Congress</a> and deferred to socialist <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Allan-L-Benson">journalist Allan L. Benson</a> to head the party’s ticket. Both lost.</p>
<p>In April 1917, when America joined World War I’s bloodbath in Europe, Debs became a fierce opponent of American involvement in what he saw as a death cult orchestrated by rapacious munitions manufacturers. On May 21, 1918, wary of a small but energized and eloquent anti-war movement, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/jsch.12219">Wilson signed the Sedition Act into law</a>. </p>
<p>Debs would not be muzzled. On June 18, 1918, in an address in Canton, Ohio, <a href="https://newspapers.library.in.gov/cgi-bin/indiana?a=d&d=RPD19180701.1.11&srpos=2&e=01-07-1918-01-07-1918--en-20--1--txt-txIN-%22Eugene+V.+Debs%22------">he declared that</a> American boys were “fit for something better than for cannon fodder.” </p>
<p>In short order, he was arrested and convicted of violating the Sedition Act. At his sentencing, he told the judge he would not retract a word of his speech even if it meant he would spend the rest of his life behind bars. “I ask for no mercy, <a href="https://www.cantondailyledger.com/story/opinion/columns/2018/07/02/eugene-debs-recalled-as-free/11615035007/">plead for no immunity</a>,” he declared. After a brief stint in the West Virginia Federal Penitentiary, he was sent to serve out his sentence at the Atlanta Federal Penitentiary.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520552/original/file-20230412-22-mce10q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A vintage newspaper clipping with the headline 'Socialists Declare Old Parties Are Crumbling.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520552/original/file-20230412-22-mce10q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520552/original/file-20230412-22-mce10q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1103&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520552/original/file-20230412-22-mce10q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1103&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520552/original/file-20230412-22-mce10q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1103&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520552/original/file-20230412-22-mce10q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1386&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520552/original/file-20230412-22-mce10q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520552/original/file-20230412-22-mce10q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1386&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Last-minute preelection campaigning on Eugene Debs’ behalf by the Socialist Party is described in the New York Tribune of Oct. 27, 1920.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.loc.gov/resource/sn83030214/1920-10-27/ed-1/?sp=2&q=Socialist+Party+1920&st=image&r=0.205,-0.077,0.823,0.351,0">Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Imprisonment only enhanced Debs’ status with his followers. On May 13, 1920, at its national convention in New York, the Socialist Party unanimously nominated “Convict 2253” as its standard-bearer for the presidency. Debs was later given new digits, so the campaign buttons read “For President, Convict No. 9653.”</p>
<p>As Debs’ name was entered into nomination, a wave of emotion swept over the delegates, who cheered for 30 minutes before bursting into a rousing chorus of the “Internationale,” <a href="https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1920/05/14/96891587.html?pageNumber=3">the communist anthem</a>. </p>
<h2>A ‘front cell’ campaign</h2>
<p>Debs’ opponents both were better funded and enjoyed freedom of movement: They were <a href="https://www.loc.gov/rr/program/bib/elections/election1920.html">Warren G. Harding, the GOP junior senator from Ohio, and James M. Cox</a>, governor of Ohio, for the Democrats. </p>
<p>Yet Debs did not let incarceration keep his message from the voters. In a wry response to <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/harding/campaigns-and-elections">Harding’s “front porch” campaign</a> style, in which the Republican candidate received visits from the front porch of his home in Marion, Ohio, the Socialist Party announced that its candidate would conduct <a href="https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1920/07/11/issue.html">a “front cell” campaign</a> from Atlanta. </p>
<p>In 1920, broadcast radio was not a factor in electioneering, but another electronic medium was just beginning to be exploited for political messaging. On May 29, 1920, in a carefully choreographed event, newsreel cameras filmed a delegation from the Socialist Party arriving at the Atlanta penitentiary to inform Debs officially of his nomination. The intertitles of the silent screen described “the most unusual scene in the political history of America – Debs, serving a ten-year term for ‘seditious activities,’ accepts Socialist nomination for Presidency.” </p>
<p>After accepting “a floral tribute from Socialist women voters,” the “Moving Picture Weekly” reported, the denim-clad <a href="https://ia801302.us.archive.org/BookReader/BookReaderImages.php?id=movingpicturewe1014movi_1&itemPath=%2F0%2Fitems%2Fmovingpicturewe1014movi_1&server=ia801302.us.archive.org&page=leaf000474">Debs was shown giving</a> “a final affectionate farewell” before heading “back to the prison cell for nine years longer.” </p>
<p>At motion picture theaters across the nation, audiences watched the staged ritual and, depending on their party registration, reacted with cheers or hisses. </p>
<p>The New York Times was aghast that a felon might canvass for votes from the motion picture screen. </p>
<p>“Under the influence of this unreasoning mob psychology, the acknowledged criminal is nightly applauded as loudly as many of the candidates for the Presidency who have won their honorable eminence by great and unflagging service to the American people,” <a href="https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1920/06/12/98297951.html?pageNumber=14">read an editorial from June 12, 1920</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520537/original/file-20230412-16-nukmwa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A vintage telegram regarding President Harding's commutation of Eugene Debs' sentence." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520537/original/file-20230412-16-nukmwa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520537/original/file-20230412-16-nukmwa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520537/original/file-20230412-16-nukmwa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520537/original/file-20230412-16-nukmwa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520537/original/file-20230412-16-nukmwa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520537/original/file-20230412-16-nukmwa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520537/original/file-20230412-16-nukmwa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One year after the election of 1920, President Warren Harding commuted Eugene Debs’ sentence, and he was released from prison on Christmas Day, 1921.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.loc.gov/item/2002697246/">Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Public opinion turns</h2>
<p>On Nov. 2, 1920, when <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/United-States-presidential-election-of-1920">the election results came in</a>, Harding had trounced his Democratic opponent by a record electoral majority, 404 electoral votes to Cox’s 127, with 60.4% of the popular vote to Cox’s 34.1%. Debs was a distant third, but he had won 3.4% of the electorate – 913,693 votes. Debs’ personal-best showing was in the presidential election of 1912, with 6% of the vote. To be fair, that was when he was more mobile.</p>
<p>Even with the Great War over and the Sedition Act repealed by a repentant Congress on Dec. 13, 1920, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1921/02/01/archives/wilson-refuses-to-pardon-debs-rejects-palmers-recommendation-to.html">Wilson, during his final months in office, steadfastly refused</a> to grant Debs a pardon. But public opinion had turned emphatically in favor of the convict-candidate. Harding, who took office in March 1921, finally <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2022/01/06/warren-harding-eugene-debs/">commuted his sentence</a>, effective on Christmas Day, 1921, along with those of 23 other Great War prisoners of conscience convicted under the Sedition Act.</p>
<p>As Debs exited the prison gates, his <a href="https://www.newspapers.com/image/471549359/?terms=%22Debs%22%20%22cameras%22%20&match=1">fellow inmates cheered</a>. He raised his hat in one hand, his cane in the other, and waved back at them. Outside, the newsreel cameras were waiting to greet him.</p>
<p>It was the kind of photo op that Donald Trump might relish.</p>
<p><em>This is an update of a story that was originally published on April 18, 2023.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225492/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Doherty does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Can you run for president from a prison cell? One man did in the 1920 election and got almost a million votes.Thomas Doherty, Professor of American Studies, Brandeis UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2240352024-03-15T12:11:53Z2024-03-15T12:11:53ZDid Biden really steal the election? Students learn how to debunk conspiracy theories in this course<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582032/original/file-20240314-24-in072o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Trump supporters attend an election fraud rally in December 2020 in Washington, D.C.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/trump-supporter-and-qanon-follower-jake-the-q-shaman-angeli-news-photo/1297805096?adppopup=true">Andrew Lichtenstein/Corbis via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Text saying: Uncommon Courses, from The Conversation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/uncommon-courses-130908">Uncommon Courses</a> is an occasional series from The Conversation U.S. highlighting unconventional approaches to teaching.</em> </p>
<h2>Title of course:</h2>
<p>Debunking conspiracy theories </p>
<h2>What prompted the idea for the course?</h2>
<p>I am interested in how people internalize or learn about political beliefs they go on to adopt. This interest coincided with my concerns about the seeming ease with which some far-right conservatives and supporters of former President Donald Trump peddled patently bogus conspiracies about <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-2020-election-lies-debunked-4fc26546b07962fdbf9d66e739fbb50d">election fraud in 2020</a>.</p>
<p>One of the outcomes of these schemes was Trump supporters’ attack on the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/01/trump-indictment-jan-6-2020-election/">U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021</a>. Sadly, the belief that the 2020 presidential election was fraudulent, even in the face of overwhelming <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/ap-fact-check-on-jan-6-anniversary-trump-sticks-to-election-falsehoods">evidence to the contrary</a>, has remained one core element of the Trump 2024 campaign. I remembered the work of historian Richard Hofstadter, who coined the term <a href="https://harpers.org/archive/1964/11/the-paranoid-style-in-american-politics/">the “paranoid style” in politics</a> in a Harper’s Magazine essay in 1964. His main idea was that some politicians were using fear and a paranoid style of thinking to sway voters. They refused to accept the current state of society and wanted to make it appear that there was a looming threat to the country. </p>
<p>Hofstadter’s work was prompted by the actions of an extreme right-wing movement called the <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/01/11/a-view-from-the-fringe">John Birch Society</a>. I had a feeling of déjà vu with Trump. </p>
<h2>What does the course explore?</h2>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582034/original/file-20240314-30-8vw3ie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A black and white leaflet says 'Does history repeat itself' and shows a photo of John F Kennedy. It has text comparing the deaths of Kennedy and Abraham Lincoln." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582034/original/file-20240314-30-8vw3ie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582034/original/file-20240314-30-8vw3ie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1268&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582034/original/file-20240314-30-8vw3ie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1268&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582034/original/file-20240314-30-8vw3ie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1268&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582034/original/file-20240314-30-8vw3ie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1594&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582034/original/file-20240314-30-8vw3ie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1594&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582034/original/file-20240314-30-8vw3ie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1594&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A 1970 conspiracy theory handout lists the similarities with the killing of John F. Kennedy and the assassination of Abraham Lincoln.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/conspiracy-theory-handout-with-image-of-john-f-kennedy-news-photo/599828533?adppopup=true">Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What’s the real truth about the moon landing? Who <a href="https://time.com/6338396/jfk-assassination-conspiracy-culture/">really killed JFK?</a> These are just some of the questions we explore in this course. My goal is to balance the serious with the absurd. </p>
<p>I want students to identify the root causes of the conspiracy, use vetted sources and learn to be good consumers of online information.</p>
<p>I also want to train students in the practice of critical analysis. The American Psychological Association has shown that people who <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/bul0000392">practice conspiratorial thinking are more likely</a> to seek simple solutions to complex problems and experience feelings of fear and isolation. </p>
<p>We begin the course examining what we can learn from both political science and psychology. We look at the long history of hoaxes, frauds and deliberate conspiracies in American history, stretching back to the Illuminati, <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/intelligence-report/2015/catholics-and-conspiracies">anti-Catholicism</a> <a href="https://www.adl.org/resources/report/antisemitic-attitudes-america-conspiracy-theories-holocaust-education-and-other">and antisemitism</a>. </p>
<p>What is old is new again. The idea that a mysterious group <a href="https://theweek.com/62399/what-is-the-illuminati-and-what-does-it-control">like the Illuminati</a> is secretly in control of the world has not gone away. False beliefs about various groups such as Catholics and Jews are, sadly, recycled again and again.</p>
<p>The course also covers the current <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/02/01/1228373511/heres-why-conspiracy-theories-about-taylor-swift-and-the-super-bowl-are-spreadin">conspiracy theories about Taylor Swift</a>. This includes the false belief that the outcome of the February 2024 Super Bowl was predetermined so that the Kansas City Chiefs would win, and Swift, the girlfriend of Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, would announce her support for President Joe Biden. </p>
<p>My course also explores much more serious threats, like QAnon – a dangerous movement that falsely believes secret government operatives are running child sex rings. </p>
<p>We also take a look at topics like UFOs, aliens, Bigfoot and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-the-loch-ness-monster-real-197338">Loch Ness monster</a>.</p>
<h2>Why is this course relevant now?</h2>
<p>In the current age of <a href="https://theconversation.com/republicans-and-democrats-consider-each-other-immoral-even-when-treated-fairly-and-kindly-by-the-opposition-220002">political polarization</a>, it is critical that I do all I can to equip future leaders and citizens with the tools they need to suss out fact from distraction and outright fiction. </p>
<h2>What’s a critical lesson from the course?</h2>
<p>My hope is that my students leave the course with the confidence that they need to not only recognize but to openly combat disinformation. We live in an age of oversaturation of information. My students are digital natives. They rarely receive information from traditional media outlets like newspapers. When one considers the wealth of disinformation on the internet, or the prospect <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/11/15/more-americans-are-getting-news-on-tiktok-bucking-the-trend-seen-on-most-other-social-media-sites/">that TikTok is their primary source of news,</a> it is critical that students are educated about how to evaluate information.</p>
<h2>What materials does the course feature?</h2>
<p>I use a <a href="https://adfontesmedia.com/interactive-media-bias-chart/">number of resources</a> in this class, including <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/true-story-brainwashing-and-how-it-shaped-america-180963400/">magazine articles</a>, academic papers, books <a href="https://www.callingbullshit.org/tools.html">and websites</a> that give people tools to recognize false information. </p>
<p>Our reading list includes the books “<a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520276826/a-culture-of-conspiracy">A Culture of Conspiracy:</a> Apocalyptic Visions in Contemporary America,” “<a href="https://academic.oup.com/yale-scholarship-online/book/17546">Enemies Within: The Culture of Conspiracy in Modern America</a>” and “<a href="https://www.burnsiderarebooks.com/pages/books/140941664/richard-hofstadter/the-paranoid-style-in-american-politics-and-other-essays">The Paranoid Style in American Politics and other essays”</a>.</p>
<h2>What will the course prepare students to do?</h2>
<p>My students will feel some discomfort at times confronting their own biases and preconceived notions.</p>
<p>The idea is that my course will prepare students to question and then determine the veracity of patently false information. My students will also be prepared to recognize that most conspiracies are born from conditions of stress and the fear of the other.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224035/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Cason does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A scholar of history of education and American politics explains what is behind his course on conspiracy theories and how students learn to debunk fake ideas.David Cason, Associate Professor in Honors, University of North DakotaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2243502024-03-15T12:11:36Z2024-03-15T12:11:36ZPacemaker powered by light eliminates need for batteries and allows the heart to function more naturally − new research<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580746/original/file-20240308-16-3gcx17.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2000%2C1500&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Scientists have designed a solar panel-like pacemaker that can precisely control heartbeats.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/female-silhouett-and-heart-with-pacemaker-royalty-free-image/1490726996">Eugene Mymrin/Moment via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>By harnessing light, my colleagues <a href="https://scholar.google.com.sg/citations?user=hO6bRlwAAAAJ&hl=en">and I</a> designed a wireless, ultrathin pacemaker that operates like a solar panel. This design not only eliminates the need for batteries but also minimizes disruptions to the heart’s natural function by molding to its contours. Our research, recently <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07016-9">published in the journal Nature</a>, offers a new approach to treatments that require electrical stimulation, such as heart pacing.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-pacemakers-and-defibrillators-work-a-cardiologist-explains-how-they-interact-with-the-electrical-system-of-the-heart-217429">Pacemakers are medical devices</a> implanted in the body to regulate heart rhythms. They’re composed of electronic circuits with batteries and leads anchored to the heart muscle to stimulate it. However, leads can fail and damage tissue. The location of the leads can’t be changed once they’re implanted, limiting access to different heart regions. Because pacemakers use rigid, metallic electrodes, they may also damage tissue when <a href="https://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/heart-surgery/during">restarting the heart after surgery</a> or <a href="https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/heart-arrhythmia/symptoms-causes/syc-20350668">regulating arrhythmia</a>.</p>
<p>Our team envisioned a leadless and more flexible pacemaker that could precisely stimulate multiple areas of the heart. So we designed a device that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07016-9">transforms light into bioelectricity</a>, or heart cell-generated electrical signals. Thinner than a human hair, our pacemaker is made of an optic fiber and silicon membrane that the <a href="https://tianlab.uchicago.edu/">Tian lab</a> and colleagues at the University of Chicago <a href="https://pme.uchicago.edu/">Pritzker School of Molecular Engineering</a> have spent years developing. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KG_M7iD90CQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Like solar panels, this pacemaker is powered by light.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Unlike <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/solar-photovoltaic-cell-basics">conventional solar cells</a> that are usually designed to collect as much energy as possible, we tweaked our device to generate electricity only at points where light strikes so it can precisely regulate heartbeats. We did this by using a layer of very small pores that can trap light and electrical current. Only cardiac muscles exposed to light-activated pores are stimulated.</p>
<p>Because our device is so small and light, it can be implanted without opening the chest. We were able to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07016-9">successfully implant it</a> in the hearts of rodents and an adult pig, pacing the beats of different heart muscles. Because <a href="https://theconversation.com/organs-from-genetically-engineered-pigs-may-help-shorten-the-transplant-wait-list-175893">pig hearts</a> are anatomically similar to human hearts, this accomplishment shows our device’s potential to translate to people.</p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>Heart disease is the <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-top-10-causes-of-death">leading cause of death around the world</a>. Annually, <a href="https://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/heart-surgery">over 2 million people</a> undergo open-heart surgery to treat heart problems, including to <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-pacemakers-and-defibrillators-work-a-cardiologist-explains-how-they-interact-with-the-electrical-system-of-the-heart-217429">implant devices</a> that regulate heart rhythms and prevent heart attacks.</p>
<p>Our ultralight device gently conforms to the surface of the heart, enabling less invasive stimulation and improved pacing and synchronized contraction. To reduce postoperative trauma and recovery time, our device can be implanted with a minimally invasive technique.</p>
<h2>What still isn’t known</h2>
<p>Currently, our technology is best first used for urgent heart conditions, including restarting the heart after surgery, heart attack and ventricular defibrillation. We continue to explore its long-term effects and durability in the human body.</p>
<p>The body’s internal environment is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2022.272">rich in fluids</a> that are disturbed by the heart’s constant mechanical motion. This could potentially compromise the device’s functionality over time. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580750/original/file-20240308-28-ptbgx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="ECG reading of patient with pacemaker syndrome" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580750/original/file-20240308-28-ptbgx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580750/original/file-20240308-28-ptbgx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580750/original/file-20240308-28-ptbgx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580750/original/file-20240308-28-ptbgx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580750/original/file-20240308-28-ptbgx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580750/original/file-20240308-28-ptbgx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580750/original/file-20240308-28-ptbgx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pacemaker syndrome is a condition that develops from stimulating heart muscles in isolation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:E00031141_(CardioNetworks_ECGpedia).jpg">Michael Rosengarten BEng, MD.McGill/EKG World Encyclopedia via Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Moreover, researchers don’t fully understand how the body reacts to prolonged exposure to medical devices. The formation of <a href="https://theconversation.com/implants-like-pacemakers-and-insulin-pumps-often-fail-because-of-immune-attacks-stopping-them-could-make-medical-devices-safer-and-longer-lasting-211090">scar tissue</a> around the device after implantation can diminish its sensitivity. We are developing special surface treatments and biomaterial coatings to decrease the likelihood of rejection. </p>
<p>Although the breakdown of our device results in a nontoxic substance the body can safely absorb called <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41578-020-0230-0">silicic acid</a>, evaluating how the body responds to extended implantation is essential to ensure safety and effectiveness.</p>
<h2>What’s next</h2>
<p>To achieve long-term implantation and tailor the device to each patient, we are refining the rate at which it dissolves naturally in the body. We are exploring enhancements to make the device compatible as a wearable pacemaker. This involves integrating a wireless light-emitting diode, or LED, beneath the skin that is connected to the device via an optical fiber.</p>
<p>Our ultimate goal is to broaden the scope of what we call photoelectroceuticals beyond cardiac care. This includes <a href="https://theconversation.com/brain-stimulation-can-rewire-and-heal-damaged-neural-connections-but-it-isnt-clear-how-research-suggests-personalization-may-be-key-to-more-effective-therapies-182491">neurostimulation</a>, neuroprostheses and pain management to treat neurodegenerative conditions such as <a href="https://www.parkinson.org/understanding-parkinsons/statistics">Parkinson’s disease</a>. </p>
<p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take on interesting academic work.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224350/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pengju Li consults to the Pritzker School of Molecular Engineering. He receives funding from the University of Chicago.</span></em></p>Researchers designed an ultrathin pacemaker that can be implanted via minimally invasive techniques, potentially improving recovery time and reducing the risk of complications.Pengju Li, Ph.D. Candidate in Molecular Engineering, University of Chicago Pritzker School of Molecular EngineeringLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2248352024-03-15T12:11:11Z2024-03-15T12:11:11ZWhat is the ‘great replacement theory’? A scholar of race relations explains<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581774/original/file-20240313-22-a4q7ya.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=107%2C16%2C5406%2C3653&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Members of a white supremacist group demonstrate near the National Archives in Washington on Jan. 21, 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/PatriotFront/3caaaf6fe498443da3305b2b4ffc7b94/photo?Query=2024%20white%20nationalists&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=748&digitizationType=Digitized&currentItemNo=NaN&vs=true&vs=true">AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.immigrationresearch.org/system/files/The%20%E2%80%98Great%20Replacement%E2%80%99%20Theory%2C%20Explained.pdf">“great replacement theory</a>,” whose origins date back to the late 19th century, argues that Jews and some Western elites are conspiring to replace white Americans and Europeans with people of non-European descent, particularly Asians and Africans.</p>
<p>The conspiracy evolved from a series of false ideas that, over time, stoked the fears of white people: In 1892, British-Australian author and politician Charles Pearson <a href="https://archive.org/details/nationallifeandc015071mbp">warned that white people</a> would “wake to find ourselves elbowed and hustled, and perhaps even thrust aside by people whom we looked down.” The massive influx of immigrants into Europe at the time fostered some of these fears and resulted in “white extinction anxiety.” In the U.S., it resulted in policies <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1921-1936/immigration-act">targeting immigration</a> in the late 19th and early 20th century. </p>
<p>In France, journalist Édouard Drumont, leader of an antisemitic movement, wrote articles in the late 19th century imagining how <a href="https://www.marxists.org/history/france/dreyfus-affair/drumont.htm">Jews would destroy French culture</a>. In 1909, Filippo Tommaso Marinetti, an Italian poet and supporter of Benito Mussolini, argued that war and fascism <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/renaud-camus-great-replacement-brenton-tarrant/">were the only cure for the world</a>. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/12/these-are-the-three-reasons-that-fascism-spread-in-1930s-america-and-might-spread-again-today/">Fascism</a>, then and now, worked to ensure white dominance. </p>
<p>This was followed by the <a href="https://www.nature.com/scitable/forums/genetics-generation/america-s-hidden-history-the-eugenics-movement-123919444/">eugenics movement</a>, an erroneous and racist theory that supported forced sterilization of Black people, the mentally ill and other marginalized groups, who were all deemed “unfit.” </p>
<p>The 1978 book entitled “<a href="https://archive.org/details/the-turner-diaries-andrew-mac-donald-william-pierce">The Turner Diaries</a>,” a fictional futuristic account of the overthrow of the United States government, further contributed to white nationalist ideas. </p>
<p>Collectively, these gave rise to a global movement that attracted a wide range of <a href="https://archive.org/details/passingofgreatra00granuoft">white supremacist, xenophobic and anti-immigration conspiracy theories</a>. These theories were formally codified <a href="https://archive.org/details/le-grand-remplacement-renaud-camus">in the work of Frenchman Renaud Camus</a>, first in his 2010 book “L'Abécédaire de l'in-nocence” and elaborated in his 2011 book “<a href="https://archive.org/details/le-grand-remplacement-renaud-camus">Le Grand Remplacement</a>.” </p>
<p>Camus argued that ethnic French and white Europeans were being replaced physically, culturally and politically by nonwhite people. He believed that liberal immigration policies and the dramatic decline in white birth rates were threatening European civilization and traditions. </p>
<h2>Why this conspiracy theory matters</h2>
<p>These false ideas promulgated the spread of white supremacy, which has <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2022/05/17/racist-great-replacement-conspiracy-theory-explained?">contributed to terrorist attacks</a>, state violence and propaganda campaigns in the U.S and parts of Europe. </p>
<p>On Aug. 11, 2017, during a “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/11/us/white-nationalists-rally-charlottesville-virginia.html">white nationalists chanted</a> “You will not replace us” and “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/16/charlottesville-neo-nazis-vice-news-hbo">Jews will not replace us</a>.” In spring 2019, Belgian politician Dries Van Langenhove repeatedly posted on social media, “<a href="https://time.com/5627494/we-analyzed-how-the-great-replacement-and-far-right-ideas-spread-online-the-trends-reveal-deep-concerns/">We are being replaced</a>.”</p>
<p>In recent years, <a href="https://www.psychiatry.org/psychiatrists/diversity/education/stress-and-trauma/undocumented-immigrants">nonwhite immigrants</a> have been the target of xenophobia. Migrants, especially from Mexico, are accused of <a href="https://immigrantjustice.org/research-items/report-legacy-injustice-us-criminalization-migration">bringing criminal activities</a> to American cities. Immigrants have also been falsely accused of <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/08/18/1118271910/many-americans-falsely-think-migrants-are-bringing-most-of-the-fentanyl-entering">smuggling fentanyl</a> into the U.S. The reality is that immigrants commit <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/03/08/1237103158/immigrants-are-less-likely-to-commit-crimes-than-us-born-americans-studies-find">far fewer crimes than those born in the U.S</a>. </p>
<h2>Impact of the theory and spread of hate</h2>
<p>In less than two decades, the theory has become a major idea, with as many <a href="https://www.rmx.news/france/france-poll-reveals-vast-majority-worried-about-great-replacement/">as 60% of the French population</a> believing some aspects of it. According to that survey, they are worried or at least concerned that they might be replaced. In the U.K. <a href="https://www.umass.edu/news/article/new-national-umass-amherst-poll-issues-finds-one-third-americans-believe-great">and the U.S.</a>, close to <a href="https://unherd.com/newsroom/one-in-three-brits-believe-in-great-replacement-theory/">one-third of those polled</a> believe that white people are systematically being replaced by nonwhite immigrants. Some in the U.S. fear that America might lose its culture and identity as a result. </p>
<p>Being aware of conspiracy theories and standing up to hatred, I argue, can help societies deal with the continuing fallout of extreme xenophobia, racist rants, the rise of white supremacy and the victimization of innocent people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224835/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rodney Coates does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>False ideas about the extinction of the white race, spread around the late 19th and early 20th centuries, gave rise to xenophobic and anti-immigration conspiracy theories.Rodney Coates, Professor of Critical Race and Ethnic Studies, Miami UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2258472024-03-15T12:10:50Z2024-03-15T12:10:50ZIsrael’s army exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox are part of a bigger challenge: The Jewish state is divided over the Jewish religion<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582023/original/file-20240314-26-32enhe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C0%2C5760%2C3828&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Israeli police scuffle with ultra-Orthodox Jews as they block a main road in Jerusalem during an October 2017 protest against Israeli army conscription.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/IsraelUltraOrthodoxDraft/76efc6b6fbbb42f1adbf903862cc7401/photo?Query=israel%20army%20ultra-orthodox&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=63&currentItemNo=21">AP Photo/Ariel Schalit, File</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Just when you think nothing can surprise you anymore in Israeli politics, someone always comes along with a new twist. </p>
<p>This time it was Yitzhak Yosef, one of Israel’s two chief rabbis. In response to debates over whether ultra-Orthodox Jews should be required to serve in the military, or continue to be excused to study religious texts full time, he had a simple answer:</p>
<p>“If they force us to go to the army, we’ll all go abroad,” <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-03-10/ty-article/.premium/chief-sephardic-rabbi-if-they-force-us-to-go-to-the-army-well-leave-israel/0000018e-2768-d152-ad8e-2fe86ad80000">he declared</a> on March 9, 2024.</p>
<p>Ultra-Orthodox resistance to conscription is nothing new.</p>
<p>But the forcefulness of this declaration is new, especially coming in the midst of a war. And Yosef is not any random rabbi. He is the son of <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/ovadia-yosef-outspoken-spiritual-leader-of-israels-sephardi-jews-dies-at-93/">Ovadia Yosef</a>, who was the spiritual leader of the Shas Party: an important partner in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-benjamin-netanyahu-government-and-politics-64d6cfb38a9b7e3b3681c6a80194a98b">right-wing and religious</a> governing coalition.</p>
<p>Ever since the state of Israel’s founding in 1948, ultra-Orthodox Jews – those who take the strictest approach toward following Jewish law, and are <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/haredim-are-fastest-growing-population-will-be-16-of-israelis-by-decades-end/">now around 14%</a> of the population – have been exempt from military service. Among all other Jewish citizens, from the secular to the modern Orthodox, men are required to serve 32 months, and women 24, plus reserve duty.</p>
<p>In 2017, the country’s Supreme Court <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2017-09-12/ty-article/israels-high-court-strikes-down-exemption-of-ultra-orthodox-from-military-service/0000017f-da83-dc0c-afff-dbdb4d4c0000">ruled against the exemptions</a>, but they have continued through a series of legislative workarounds. The latest is due to <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/gantz-boycotts-meeting-on-haredi-draft-with-pm-after-cabinet-ignores-his-proposal/">expire at the end of March 2024</a>, however – and other Israelis’ <a href="https://forward.com/news/591020/survey-large-majority-of-israeli-jews-want-haredim-to-serve-in-the-military/">resentment toward the ultra-Orthodox exemption</a> is at a high.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.american.edu/cas/faculty/mbrenner.cfm">a historian</a>, I see the conscription debate as more than a political crisis for Israel’s government. The question is so sensitive because it opens up fundamental questions about the cohesion of Israeli society in general, and of the ultra-Orthodox, or “Haredi,” population’s attitude toward the Jewish state in particular.</p>
<p>It also illustrates the complexity of a country that is not as easily explained as many of its supporters and critics alike believe.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582036/original/file-20240314-18-nf0rc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A crowd of men wearing head coverings, with one man seated in front wearing an ornate gold and black robe." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582036/original/file-20240314-18-nf0rc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582036/original/file-20240314-18-nf0rc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582036/original/file-20240314-18-nf0rc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582036/original/file-20240314-18-nf0rc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582036/original/file-20240314-18-nf0rc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582036/original/file-20240314-18-nf0rc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582036/original/file-20240314-18-nf0rc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Yitzhak Yosef, center, the Sephardi chief rabbi of Israel, attends a protest against religious reforms in Jerusalem in 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Israel%20Kosher%20Wars/2b2ca692403d41ac971b6ae2a7b3c303?Query=chief%20rabbinate%20israel&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:asc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=17&currentItemNo=12">AP Photo/Mahmoud Illean</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Initial compromise</h2>
<p>Historically, Orthodox Jews struggled to justify the idea of a Jewish state. They prayed for centuries to return to Jerusalem and rebuild the temple, but had a specific return in mind: <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/belief/2016/may/12/for-haredi-jews-secular-zionism-remains-a-religious-heresy">a Jewish state established by the Messiah</a>. Any other kind of Jewish sovereignty, they believed, would be blasphemy.</p>
<p>Theodor Herzl, who founded modern political Zionism in the late 1800s, had a long beard and looked like a Biblical prophet. Yet he was thoroughly secular and assimilated – he even <a href="https://forward.com/israel/356767/when-theodor-herzl-lit-his-christmas-tree/">lit a Christmas tree</a> with his family. Herzl’s movement to encourage more European Jews to migrate to the Holy Land had little appeal for the Orthodox. </p>
<p>There was, however, always a minority among the Orthodox who identified with Zionism, the belief that Jewish people should have a sovereign political state in the land of Israel. According to the Talmud, the central source of Jewish law, <a href="https://www.myjewishlearning.com/article/saving-a-life-pikuach-nefesh/">saving lives is more important than other commandments</a> – and Zionism saved Jews from pogroms and other anti-Jewish violence in Europe. </p>
<p>During the Holocaust, the vast majority of observant Jews in Eastern Europe <a href="https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400889198-032">were murdered</a>. Afterward, many survivors who had previously opposed Zionism sought refuge in the new state of Israel.</p>
<p>On the eve of Israel’s independence, David Ben-Gurion, the prime minister of the state-to-be, <a href="https://israelpolicyforum.org/2023/07/11/the-haredi-exemption/">entered an agreement</a> with the leaders of the two camps of Orthodox Jews.</p>
<p>The Haredim, or ultra-Orthodox, still refused to recognize the legitimacy of a secular Jewish state. The so-called national religious camp, on the other hand, embraced it.</p>
<p>Among other concessions, the new state <a href="https://israelpolicyforum.org/2023/07/11/the-haredi-exemption/">granted exemption</a> to young Haredi Jews who wanted to study religious texts full time instead of joining the army. That hardly seemed consequential, as the young men in question numbered only a few hundred.</p>
<h2>Shifting views</h2>
<p>During the Six-Day War of 1967, Israel captured the Jewish holy sites in Jerusalem as well as <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54116567">the Gaza Strip, West Bank, Golan Heights and Sinai Peninsula</a>. Since then, the national religious camp, once a moderate force, has developed into <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/national-religious-camps-path-from-denying-settlements-to-merging-with-radicals/">the spearhead of the right-wing settler movement</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582026/original/file-20240314-20-maslyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Young men sit at tables in a dimly lit temporary structure." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582026/original/file-20240314-20-maslyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582026/original/file-20240314-20-maslyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582026/original/file-20240314-20-maslyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582026/original/file-20240314-20-maslyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582026/original/file-20240314-20-maslyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582026/original/file-20240314-20-maslyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582026/original/file-20240314-20-maslyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jewish settlers study the Torah in a tent at the West Bank outpost of Homesh, near the Palestinian village of Burqa, Jan. 17, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/IsraelSettlerStrength/2504708583b44bb4a3e11e8556775a82/photo?Query=israel%20settler&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=2483&currentItemNo=455">AP Photo/Ariel Schalit</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Unlike the first generations of Orthodox Zionists, national religious Israelis today are Zionists not despite but because of messianism. Israel, they believe, will help bring about the messianic age. Therefore, right-wing religious Zionists – like Netanyahu’s cabinet ministers <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/15/israel-ben-gvir-netanyahu-government/">Itamar Ben-Gvir</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-presses-with-settlement-plans-despite-us-criticism-2024-02-28/">Bezalel Smotrich</a> – are enthusiastic proponents of army service.</p>
<p>Not so the Haredim, the ultra-Orthodox. </p>
<p>To be clear, <a href="https://www.harediresearchgroup.org/haredi-demography/">Haredi Jews are very diverse</a>. This demographic includes families with roots everywhere from Poland and Romania to Morocco and Iraq. It includes people who support Israel’s existence, and opponents who <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/group-of-ultra-orthodox-jews-marks-independence-day-by-burning-israeli-flag/#:%7E:text=TV%20footage%20shows%20men%20and,back%20and%20forth%20in%20bonfire&text=Ultra%2Dorthodox%20Jews%20in%20the,(Channel%2010%20screenshot.)">burn the flag</a> on Independence Day. It includes men who join the workforce and men who dedicate their life to religious study. </p>
<p>The majority of Haredim living in Israel are not Zionists, yet live there because it is the Holy Land and <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-04/ty-article/.premium/for-israels-ultra-orthodox-taxpayer-money-is-flooding-in/0000018a-faf4-d12f-afbf-fbf531fb0000">the state subsidizes their study</a>. Anything else – secular education, army service, and often paid work – is seen as a distraction.</p>
<p>A minority of Haredi Jews serve in the armed forces voluntarily, and <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/with-israel-at-war-150-haredi-men-draft-into-idf-thousands-expected-to-follow/">more have enlisted</a> since the beginning of the latest Israel-Hamas war. But they have no legal obligation to do so; nor do Israel’s Arab citizens. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582025/original/file-20240314-22-5knfek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Four men in black hats and jackets, as well as a child, stand near a blue fence on a street, as they men look down at books in their hands." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582025/original/file-20240314-22-5knfek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582025/original/file-20240314-22-5knfek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582025/original/file-20240314-22-5knfek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582025/original/file-20240314-22-5knfek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582025/original/file-20240314-22-5knfek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582025/original/file-20240314-22-5knfek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582025/original/file-20240314-22-5knfek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jewish men pray in Jerusalem for the success of the Israeli army and for the return of the Israeli hostages, on Nov. 9, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/IsraelPalestiniansUltra-OrthodoxProtest/a02f5e31545649699ba3eb59b62b6b35/photo?Query=israel%20army%20ultra-orthodox&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=63&currentItemNo=13">AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Growing Haredi sector</h2>
<p>Israel’s governments have continued to <a href="https://israelpolicyforum.org/2023/07/11/the-haredi-exemption/">tolerate this situation</a> as ultra-Orthodox political parties became much-needed partners.</p>
<p>Yet legal and popular opposition has increased.</p>
<p>In 1998, the Supreme Court ruled that the defense minister <a href="https://versa.cardozo.yu.edu/opinions/rubinstein-v-minister-defense">has no right to exempt Haredi Jews from military service</a> and asked the government to find ways to draft them. In 2014, a center-right government under Netanyahu <a href="https://apnews.com/general-news-edae47d44f084d6a90a741050caaa3c9">passed a law</a> aiming to have 60% of Haredi men serving within three years. But the 2015 elections brought Haredi parties back in power, and implementation was effectively abandoned. </p>
<p>Since then, Haredi parties have become more powerful as their population grows. Yet the Supreme Court has made clear that by the end of March 2024, the government either <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-02-21/ty-article/.premium/state-to-top-court-haredim-will-be-drafted-if-conscription-law-isnt-passed-by-april/0000018d-cd43-d2b4-a9bf-cf77a2cb0000">needs to draft Haredim</a>, or the legislature has to come up with a new law to excuse them.</p>
<p>Seven in 10 Israeli Jews <a href="https://forward.com/news/591020/survey-large-majority-of-israeli-jews-want-haredim-to-serve-in-the-military/">oppose the blanket exemption</a>, meaning another exemption might jeopardize Netanyahu’s government. Frustration is also rising over plans to raise the military service of men to three years and to double the duty of reservists to <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-02-08/ty-article/.premium/bill-extending-israeli-army-service-draws-ire-for-exempting-haredim/0000018d-8a40-d443-a19f-fed132dc0000">42 days a year</a> during emergencies.</p>
<p>None of this would matter if the Haredim were still the same tiny segment of society they were in 1948. Today, however, ultra-Orthodox women have <a href="https://en.idi.org.il/haredi/2022/?chapter=48263">6.5 children on average</a>, compared with 2.5 among other Jewish Israeli women, and 1 in 4 young children <a href="https://shoresh.institute/graphs.html">are ultra-Orthodox</a>. </p>
<p>The resulting <a href="https://theconversation.com/israels-new-hard-line-government-has-made-headlines-the-bigger-demographic-changes-that-caused-it-not-so-much-197263">transformation of Israeli society</a> is easy to see. If the trend continues, Israel will become a very different, very religious society – one that can hardly survive economically. </p>
<p>On average, a non-Haredi household pays nine times more income tax than a Haredi one, while the latter receives <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024-03-11/ty-article/.premium/in-israel-non-orthodox-citizens-serve-the-state-and-the-state-serves-the-ultra-orthodox/0000018e-1adb-d1cc-abfe-dfffd7bd0000">over 50% more state support</a>. Even if they were ready to work, most Haredim would have a hard time finding well-paid jobs, as their state-subsidized private schools teach hardly any secular topics.</p>
<p>For Israeli society, this portends further fragmentation and a weakening of the economy – to say nothing of the army.</p>
<p>But, Chief Rabbi Yitzhak says, this will never happen. In his and other Haredim’s eyes, Israel’s soldiers succeed only <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-03-10/ty-article/.premium/chief-sephardic-rabbi-if-they-force-us-to-go-to-the-army-well-leave-israel/0000018e-2768-d152-ad8e-2fe86ad80000">because religious Jews study and pray for them</a>. </p>
<p>“They need to understand that without the Torah, without the yeshivas, there’d be nothing, no success for the army,” he said.</p>
<p><em>This article has been updated to correct the date that the military exemption is due to expire.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225847/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Brenner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Israel-Hamas war has fueled tensions around military exemptions, but the issue has long roiled Israeli politics.Michael Brenner, Professor of Jewish History and Culture at Ludwig Maximilian University and Abensohn Chair in Israel Studies, American UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2258572024-03-15T12:10:30Z2024-03-15T12:10:30ZWhy do airlines charge so much for checked bags? This obscure rule helps explain why<p>Five out of the six <a href="https://www.oag.com/blog/biggest-airlines-in-the-us">biggest U.S. airlines</a> have <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/05/delta-is-the-latest-airline-to-raise-its-checked-bag-fee.html">raised their checked bag fees</a> since January 2024.</p>
<p>Take American Airlines. In 2023, it cost US$30 to check a standard bag in with the airline; <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2024/02/20/american-airlines-bag-fees-mileage-earning/72669245007/">today, as of March 2024, it costs $40</a> at a U.S. airport – a whopping 33% increase.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://www.bu.edu/questrom/">business school</a> <a href="https://www.bu.edu/questrom/profile/jay-zagorsky/">professor who studies travel</a>, I’m often asked why airlines alienate their customers with baggage fees instead of bundling all charges together. <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/4/16/8431465/airlines-carry-on-bags">There are</a> <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/columnist/2023/06/21/bag-fees-will-stay-a-while-cruising-altitude/70338849007/">many reasons</a>, but an important, often overlooked cause is buried in the U.S. tax code.</p>
<h2>A tax-law loophole</h2>
<p>Airlines pay the federal government <a href="https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-26/chapter-I/subchapter-D/part-49/subpart-D">7.5% of the ticket price</a> when <a href="https://www.pwc.com/us/en/services/tax/library/aircraft-club-nov-2023-air-transport-excise-tax-rates-for-2024.html">flying people domestically, alongside other fees</a>. The airlines dislike these charges, with their <a href="https://www.airlines.org/dataset/government-imposed-taxes-on-air-transportation/">trade association arguing</a> that they boost the cost to the consumer of a typical air ticket by around one-fifth.</p>
<p>However, the U.S. Code of Federal Regulations <a href="https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-26/chapter-I/subchapter-D/part-49/subpart-D/section-49.4261-8">specifically excludes baggage</a> from the 7.5% transportation tax as long as “the charge is separable from the payment for the transportation of a person and is shown in the exact amount.”</p>
<p>This means if an airline charges a combined $300 to fly you and a bag round-trip within the U.S., it owes $22.50 in tax. If the airline charges $220 to fly you plus separately charges $40 each way for the bag, then your total cost is the same — but the airline only owes the government $16.50 in taxes. Splitting out baggage charges saves the airline $6.</p>
<p>Now $6 might not seem like much, but it can add up. Last year, passengers took <a href="https://www.transtats.bts.gov/Data_Elements.aspx?Data=1">more than 800 million trips on major airlines</a>. Even if only a fraction of them check their bags, that means large savings for the industry.</p>
<p>How large? The government has <a href="https://www.bts.dot.gov/topics/airlines-and-airports/baggage-fees-airline-2023">tracked revenue from bag fees</a> for decades. In 2002, airlines charged passengers a total of $180 million to check bags, which worked out to around 33 cents per passenger. </p>
<p>Today, as any flyer can attest, bag fees are a lot higher. Airlines collected over 40 times more money in bag fees last year than they did in 2002.</p>
<p>When the full data is in for 2023, <a href="https://www.bts.dot.gov/baggage-fees">total bag fees</a> will likely top $7 billion, which is about $9 for the average domestic passenger. <a href="https://viewfromthewing.com/the-real-reason-airlines-charge-checked-bag-fees-and-its-not-what-you-think">By splitting out the cost of bags</a>, airlines avoided paying about half a billion dollars in taxes just last year.</p>
<p>In the two decades since 2002, flyers paid a total of about $70 billion in bag fees. This means separately charging for bags saved airlines about $5 billion in taxes.</p>
<p><iframe id="88MYD" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/88MYD/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>It seems clear to me that tax savings are one driver of the unbundling of baggage fees because of a quirk in the law.</p>
<p>The U.S. government doesn’t apply the 7.5% tax to <a href="https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-26/chapter-I/subchapter-D/part-49/subpart-D/section-49.4261-3">international flights that go more than 225 miles</a> beyond the nation’s borders. Instead, there are fixed <a href="https://www.airlines.org/dataset/government-imposed-taxes-on-air-transportation">international departure and arrival taxes</a>. This is why major airlines charge $35 to $40 <a href="https://www.aa.com/i18n/travel-info/baggage/checked-baggage-policy.jsp">for bags if you’re flying domestically</a>, but don’t charge a bag fee when you’re flying to Europe or Asia.</p>
<h2>Do travelers get anything for that money?</h2>
<p>This system raises an interesting question: Do baggage fees force airlines to be more careful with bags, since customers who pay more expect better service? To find out, I checked with the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, which has been <a href="https://www.bts.gov/content/mishandled-baggage-reports-filed-passengers-largest-us-air-carriersa">tracking lost luggage for decades</a>. </p>
<p>For many years, it calculated the number of mishandled-baggage reports per thousand airline passengers. The government’s data showed mishandled bags peaked in 2007 with about seven reports of lost or damaged luggage for every thousand passengers. That means you could expect your luggage to go on a different trip than the one you are taking about once every 140 or so flights. By 2018, that estimate had fallen to once every 350 flights.</p>
<p>In 2019, the government <a href="https://www.bts.gov/topics/airlines-and-airports/number-30a-technical-directive-mishandled-baggage-amended-effective-jan">changed how it tracks</a> mishandled bags, calculating figures based on the total number of bags checked, rather than the total number of passengers. The new data show about six bags per thousand checked get lost or damaged, which is less than 1% of checked bags. Unfortunately, the data doesn’t show improvement since 2019.</p>
<p>Is there anything that you can do about higher bag fees? Complaining to politicians probably won’t help. In 2010, two senators <a href="https://www.nj.com/business/2010/04/us_senators_present_bill_to_ba.html">tried to ban bag fees</a>, and their bill went nowhere.</p>
<p>Given that congressional action failed, there’s a simple way to avoid higher bag fees: <a href="https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/packing-expert-travel-world-handbag/index.html">travel light</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/08/opinion/carry-on-packing-airlines-lost-luggage.html">don’t check any luggage</a>. It may sound tough not to have all your belongings when traveling, but it might be the best option as bag fees take off.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225857/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jay L. Zagorsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The answer lies in the tax code.Jay L. Zagorsky, Associate Professor of Markets, Public Policy and Law, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2243192024-03-15T12:10:14Z2024-03-15T12:10:14ZThe hostility Black women face in higher education carries dire consequences<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581998/original/file-20240314-24-v5d9s0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2110%2C1412&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Isolation can make opportunities elusive. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/young-woman-holding-a-highlighter-and-reading-a-royalty-free-image/1446120435?adppopup=true">fotostorm via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Isolated. Abused. Overworked. </p>
<p>These are the themes that emerged when I invited nine Black women to chronicle their professional experiences and relationships with colleagues as they earned their Ph.D.s at a public university in the Midwest. I featured their writings in <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/3150/AYA_THIS.pdf?1710504520">the dissertation I wrote</a> to get my Ph.D. in curriculum and instruction. </p>
<p>The women spoke of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1527-2001.2011.01177.x">being silenced</a>.</p>
<p>“It’s not just the beating me down that is hard,” one participant told me about constantly having her intelligence questioned. “It is the fact that it feels like I’m villainized and made out to be the problem for trying to advocate for myself.”</p>
<p>The women told me they did not feel like they belonged. They spoke of routinely being isolated by peers and potential mentors. </p>
<p>One participant told me she felt that peer community, faculty mentorship and cultural affinity spaces were lacking.</p>
<p>Because of the isolation, participants often felt that they were missing out on various opportunities, such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.9707/2168-149X.2388">funding and opportunities to get their work published</a>.</p>
<p>Participants also discussed the ways they felt they were duped into taking on more than their fair share of work.</p>
<p>“I realized I had been tricked into handling a two- to four-person job entirely by myself,” one participant said of her paid graduate position. “This happened just about a month before the pandemic occurred so it very quickly got swept under the rug.” </p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>The hostility that Black women face in higher education can be hazardous to their health. The women in my study told me they were struggling with depression, had thought about suicide and felt physically ill when they had to go to campus.</p>
<p>Other studies have found similar outcomes. For instance, a 2020 study of 220 U.S. Black college women ages 18-48 found that even though being seen as a strong Black woman came with its benefits – such as being thought of as resilient, hardworking, independent and nurturing – it also came at a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11199-020-01170-w">cost to their mental and physical health</a>. </p>
<p>These kinds of experiences can take a toll on women’s bodies and can result in <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-weeds/24079547/weathering-black-health-outcomes-women-dr-uche-blackstock">poor maternal health, cancer, shorter life expectancy</a> and other symptoms that impair their ability to be well.</p>
<p>I believe my research takes on greater urgency in light of the recent death of <a href="https://www.highereddive.com/news/lincoln-university-candia-bailey-death-investigation/705101/">Antoinette “Bonnie” Candia-Bailey</a>, who was <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/lincoln-university-president-paid-leave-days-vp-student-affairs-dies-s-rcna133723">vice president of student affairs</a> at Lincoln University. Before she <a href="https://www.newsnationnow.com/us-news/education/lincoln-university-students-vp-dies-by-suicide/">died by suicide</a>, she reportedly wrote that she felt she was suffering abuse and that the university <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/28/antoinette-candia-bailey-lincoln-university-death">wasn’t taking her mental health concerns seriously</a>.</p>
<h2>What other research is being done</h2>
<p>Several anthologies examine the negative experiences that Black women experience in academia. They include education scholars Venus Evans-Winters and Bettina Love’s edited volume, “<a href="https://www.peterlang.com/document/1118277">Black Feminism in Education</a>,” which examines how Black women navigate what it means to be a scholar in a “white supremacist patriarchal society.” Gender and sexuality studies scholar <a href="https://upf.com/book.asp?id=9780813032689">Stephanie Evans</a> analyzes the barriers that Black women faced in accessing higher education from 1850 to 1954. In “<a href="https://www.broadleafbooks.com/store/product/9781506489834/Black-Women-Ivory-Tower">Black Women, Ivory Tower</a>,” African American studies professor Jasmine Harris recounts her own traumatic experiences in the world of higher education.</p>
<h2>What’s next</h2>
<p>In addition to publishing the findings of my research study, I plan to continue exploring the depths of Black women’s experiences in academia, expanding my research to include undergraduate students, as well as faculty and staff. </p>
<p>I believe this research will strengthen this field of study and enable people who work in higher education to develop and implement more comprehensive solutions.</p>
<p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take on interesting academic work.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224319/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ebony Aya received funding from the Black Collective Foundation in 2022 to support the work of the Aya Collective. </span></em></p>9 Black women who were working on or recently earned their PhDs told a researcher they felt isolated and shut out.Ebony Aya, Program Manager at the Jan Serie Center for Scholarship and Teaching, Macalester CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2256382024-03-15T12:09:55Z2024-03-15T12:09:55ZHow meth became an epidemic in America, and what’s happening now that it’s faded from the headlines<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582056/original/file-20240314-20-ipf1yd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=163%2C92%2C4570%2C3009&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Police detectives sort through evidence after raiding a suspected meth lab. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/UrbanMeth/62442edc986247c08ccfff109e7b07e0/photo?Query=meth%20AND%20rural&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=7&currentItemNo=6">AP Photo/Jeff Roberson</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Rural America has long suffered from an <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-hes-not-on-drugs-hes-a-good-person-one-communitys-story-of-meth-use-and-domestic-violence-176069">epidemic of methamphetamine use</a>, which accounts for <a href="https://news.illinois.edu/view/6367/548454463">thousands of drug overdoses and deaths every year</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>William Garriott, an anthropologist at Drake University, explored meth’s impact on communities and everyday life in the U.S. in his 2011 book “<a href="https://nyupress.org/9780814732403/policing-methamphetamine/">Policing Methamphetamine: Narcopolitics in Rural America</a>.” Since then, the problem has only gotten worse.</em></p>
<p><em>The rural news site <a href="https://dailyyonder.com">the Daily Yonder</a> spoke with Garriott about what has been driving the <a href="https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/trends-us-methamphetamine-use-associated-deaths">surge in meth use in recent decades</a> and what prompted him to focus on meth in his work. The Conversation has collaborated with The Daily Yonder to share the interview with you.</em></p>
<p><strong>How’d you get interested in methamphetamine as an academic subject?</strong></p>
<p>When I started my Ph.D in anthropology in 2003, I knew I wanted to focus on the Appalachian region of the United States. At the time, I was curious about religious life in the region and its contribution to the growth of Pentecostalism and evangelicalism around the world.</p>
<p>But I had also just taken a course with medical anthropologist Arthur Kleinman. He says that we should seek to understand “<a href="https://tannerlectures.utah.edu/_resources/documents/a-to-z/k/Kleinman99.pdf">what’s at stake</a>” or “<a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/what-really-matters-9780195331325?cc=us&lang=en&">what really matters</a>” for people in their everyday lives.</p>
<p>And what really mattered to people in places like eastern Kentucky at the time was drugs. We now know we were at the beginning of the opioid epidemic. OxyContin was already taking a toll on local communities, and there was little national concern because it was seen as an isolated regional problem (the derogatory term “hillbilly heroin” was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/jun/25/usa.julianborger">getting thrown around a lot</a> at the time).</p>
<p>When I started my dissertation research, methamphetamine had become the primary concern, both regionally and nationally. When the <a href="https://www.justice.gov/archive/ll/highlights.htm#%22%22">Patriot Act</a> was reauthorized in 2005, the only significant addition was anti-meth legislation called the <a href="https://www.deadiversion.usdoj.gov/meth/cma2005.html">Combat Meth Epidemic Act</a>.</p>
<p><strong>In what sense was the meth surge of the ’90s and early 2000s a rural phenomenon?</strong></p>
<p>Lots of ways. The internet gave people access to meth recipes, and meth cooks tended to be located in rural areas. It was easier to hide and access key ingredients like <a href="https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs13/13853/product.htm">anhydrous ammonia</a>. In fact, the number of meth labs grew so quickly that huge swaths of the rural U.S. were labeled <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.5816/anthropologynow.5.1.0027">High Intensity Drug Trafficking Areas</a> – something that had only been applied to cities like New York and Los Angeles before.</p>
<p>The rural economy was also changing. Jobs weren’t paying as well or were going away altogether. Meth found a niche as a kind of performance enhancement drug for people working long hours at physically demanding jobs – something <a href="https://nyupress.org/9780814732403/policing-methamphetamine/">I saw</a> in the poultry industry in West Virginia, journalist <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/methland-9781608192076/">Nick Reding</a> found in the pork industry in Iowa, and anthropologist <a href="https://www.upress.umn.edu/book-division/books/the-alchemy-of-meth">Jason Pine</a> found in general in Missouri. Eventually some folks just left these jobs to work in the meth economy full time.</p>
<p>I think it’s also important to mention how meth was being portrayed in national media as the drug of choice for <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29733233/">poor white people</a>. From there, it doesn’t take much to connect it to rural communities, given how those communities are often thought of as predominantly white and poor in the public imagination.</p>
<p>Anti-meth programs like the <a href="https://montanameth.org/">Montana Meth Project</a> and <a href="https://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/2004/12/the_faces_of_meth.html">Faces of Meth</a> played a big part in this. They were very visual campaigns that focused on the damage meth does to the body. All of the people they pictured appeared to be white. They had sores, scars and sunken eyes. They also were often missing teeth. All of that invokes a lot of stereotypes. Sociologists Travis Linnemann and Tyler Wall have a great <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1362480612468934">journal article on this</a>.</p>
<p>With all of that said, it is important to keep in mind that meth is just as much an urban and suburban problem as a rural one, particularly now. Sociologist <a href="https://www.rutgersuniversitypress.org/women-on-ice/9780813554594/">Miriam Boeri</a> has made this point really clearly. Also, something to keep in mind about Faces of Meth: It was created by a jail deputy in Oregon who used mugshots of people booked into the county jail. The jail is in Portland, so the folks featured probably weren’t living in rural communities at the time.</p>
<p><strong>Your book was called “Policing Methamphetamine.” I’m curious – what made you zero in on that element of meth culture, its policing?</strong></p>
<p>When I began my research, I thought my focus would be on the treatment experiences of people who use methamphetamine. But what I quickly found was that those experiences couldn’t be understood outside of the criminal justice system. Many people only got treatment after an arrest, and often as a condition of probation. One officer told me that people came up to him on the street and asked to be taken to jail so they could stop using drugs. Community members also often channeled their concerns into calls for increased enforcement.</p>
<p>In retrospect, none of this should have been surprising. U.S. drug policy has long focused on <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/war-on-drugs">enforcement</a>. This puts police and the criminal justice system on the front lines whenever and wherever a new drug problem emerges. There is no exception to this dynamic for rural communities. What’s more, the justice system is likely to be the most visible and well-resourced state institution in the community (which is not to say it is sufficiently resourced).</p>
<p><strong>What are the questions you still have about meth in American life?</strong></p>
<p>Today, the most pressing question from my perspective is how meth and opioids are converging. One of the more unfortunate developments is that people have started <a href="https://www.health.state.mn.us/communities/opioids/basics/intravenous.html">injecting meth</a>. There is also the broad contamination of the drug supply with fentanyl.</p>
<p>All of this creates additional public health challenges, particularly in rural communities.</p>
<p>Something else I’m thinking about a lot is what happens when drugs like meth stop making headlines and get replaced by the next drug scourge. Today, people are much more likely to <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2023/06/19/texas-fentanyl-drugs/">talk about fentanyl than meth</a>. This is understandable given the overdose risks, as well as the way news media works. But what are the consequences of this for the communities where meth is still a major concern?</p>
<p>Bigger picture, I’m thinking about meth in the broader context of U.S. drug policy. My next book is about marijuana legalization and justice reform. It’s been interesting because the conversation around cannabis is so different from the conversation around meth. One of the big questions I have is if the kinds of reforms that are following cannabis legalization will do anything to change the conversation around the broader punitive approach to drugs. <a href="https://www.opb.org/article/2024/03/04/oregon-drug-misdemeanor-new-convictions-arrests/">The debate happening right now in Oregon over Measure 110</a> is something I’m watching very closely. It’s a major test case for whether or not a different, less punitive approach to drugs is possible.</p>
<p><em><a href="https://dailyyonder.com">The Daily Yonder</a> provides news, commentary and analysis about and for rural America. The interview accompanies a five-part series on its <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/41tCRxV4af8cl7CuJi6NsN?si=868e20efc47142e4">Rural Remix podcast</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225638/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Will Garriott received funding for his meth research from the National Science Foundation. His current work on marijuana legalization and cannabis policy reform has been funded by the Wenner Gren Foundation, Drake University, and the Center for the Humanities at Drake University.
</span></em></p>An anthropologist who wrote a book exploring meth’s impact on rural communities explains what drove the epidemic and how it’s changed.William Garriott, Professor of Law, Politics, and Society, Drake UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2250452024-03-14T12:46:59Z2024-03-14T12:46:59ZFor-profit nursing homes are cutting corners on safety and draining resources with financial shenanigans − especially at midsize chains that dodge public scrutiny<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580044/original/file-20240306-22-la93ja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5982%2C3988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The for-profit nursing home sector is growing, while placing a premium on cost cutting and big profits.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">picture alliance via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The care at Landmark of Louisville Rehabilitation and Nursing was abysmal when state inspectors filed their survey report of the Kentucky facility on July 3, 2021.</p>
<p>Residents <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24170104-landmark-nursing-070321#document/p72/a2407365">wandered the halls</a> in a facility that can house up to 250 people, yelling at each other and stealing blankets. One resident beat a roommate <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24170104-landmark-nursing-070321#document/p66/a2407364">with a stick</a>, causing bruising and skin tears. Another was found in bed with a broken finger and a bloody forehead <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24170104-landmark-nursing-070321#document/p55/a2407366">gash</a>. That person was allowed to roam and enter the beds of other residents. In another case, there was <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24170104-landmark-nursing-070321#document/p21/a2407367">sexual touching</a> in the dayroom between residents, according to the report.</p>
<p>Meals were served from filthy meal carts on plastic foam trays, and residents struggled to cut their food with dull plastic cutlery. Broken tiles lined showers, and a mysterious black gunk marred the floors. The director of housekeeping reported that the dining room was unsanitary. Overall, there was a critical lack of training, staff and <a href="https://projects.propublica.org/nursing-homes/homes/h-185122">supervision</a>.</p>
<p>The inspectors tagged Landmark as <a href="https://medicare.gov/care-compare/inspections/pdf/nursing-home/185122/health/standard?date=2021-07-03">deficient in 29 areas</a>, including six that put residents in immediate jeopardy of serious harm and three where actual harm was found. The issues were so severe that the government slapped Landmark with <a href="https://www.medicare.gov/care-compare/details/nursing-home/185122?state=KY&measure=nursing-home-penalties">a fine of over US$319,000</a> − <a href="https://data.cms.gov/provider-data/dataset/g6vv-u9sr">more than 29 times the average</a> for a nursing home in 2021 − and suspended payments to the home from federal Medicaid and Medicare funds.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580527/original/file-20240307-28-o5dqjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Highlighted excerpt from a report" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580527/original/file-20240307-28-o5dqjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580527/original/file-20240307-28-o5dqjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=144&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580527/original/file-20240307-28-o5dqjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=144&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580527/original/file-20240307-28-o5dqjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=144&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580527/original/file-20240307-28-o5dqjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=181&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580527/original/file-20240307-28-o5dqjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=181&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580527/original/file-20240307-28-o5dqjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=181&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This excerpt from the July 3, 2021, state inspection report of Landmark of Louisville Rehabilitation and Nursing includes an interview with a nurse who found an injured resident.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.medicare.gov/care-compare/inspections/pdf/nursing-home/185122/health/standard?date=2021-07-03">New York State attorney general's office</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Persistent problems</h2>
<p>But problems persisted. Five months later, inspectors levied six additional deficiencies of immediate jeopardy − the highest level − including <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24170103-landmark-nursing-120921#document/p1/a2407371">more sexual abuse</a> among residents and a certified nursing assistant pushing someone down, bruising the person’s back and hip.</p>
<p>Landmark is just one of the 58 facilities run by parent company Infinity Healthcare Management across five states. The government issued penalties to the company almost 4½ times the national average, according to bimonthly data that the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services first started to make available in late 2022. All told, Infinity paid <a href="https://data.cms.gov/quality-of-care/nursing-home-affiliated-entity-performance-measures/data">nearly $10 million in fines</a> since 2021, the highest among nursing home chains with fewer than 100 facilities.</p>
<p>Infinity Healthcare Management and its executives did not respond to multiple requests for comment.</p>
<p>Such <a href="https://violationtracker.goodjobsfirst.org/">sanctions are nothing new</a> for Infinity or other for-profit nursing home chains that have dominated an industry long known for cutting corners in pursuit of profits for private owners. But this race to the bottom to extract profits is accelerating despite demands by <a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-23-104813.pdf">government officials</a>, health care experts and advocacy groups to protect the nation’s most vulnerable citizens.</p>
<p>To uncover the reasons why, The Conversation’s investigative unit <em>Inquiry</em> delved into the nursing home industry, where for-profit facilities make up more than 72% of the nation’s nearly 14,900 facilities. The probe, which paired an academic expert with an investigative reporter, used the most recent government data on ownership, facility information and penalties, combined with CMS data on affiliated entities for nursing homes.</p>
<p>The investigation revealed an industry that places a premium on cost cutting and big profits, with low staffing and poor quality, often to the detriment of patient well-being. Operating under <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4541739">weak and poorly enforced regulations</a> with financially insignificant penalties, the for-profit sector fosters an environment where corners are frequently cut, compromising the quality of care and endangering patient health. Meanwhile, owners make the facilities look less profitable by siphoning money from the homes through byzantine networks of interconnected corporations. Federal regulators have neglected the problem as <a href="https://theconsumervoice.org/news/detail/latest/new-report-nursing-homes-funnel-dollars-through-related-party-companies">each year likely billions of dollars are funneled</a> out of nursing homes through related parties and into owners’ pockets.</p>
<h2>More trouble at midsize</h2>
<p>Analyzing newly released government data, our investigation found that these problems are most pronounced in nursing homes like Infinity − midsize chains that <a href="https://data.cms.gov/quality-of-care/nursing-home-affiliated-entity-performance-measures/data">operate between 11 and 100 facilities</a>. This subsection of the industry has higher average fines per home, lower overall quality ratings, and are more likely to be tagged with resident abuse compared with both the larger and smaller networks. Indeed, while such chains account for about 39% of all facilities, they operate 11 of the 15 most-fined facilities.</p>
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<p>With few impediments, private investors who own the midsize chains have quietly swooped in to purchase underperforming homes, expanding their holdings even further as larger chains divest and close facilities. As a result of the industry’s <a href="https://aspe.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/documents/dbab91af8491ce317a66471c361d3ec4/changes-ownership-snf.pdf">churn of facility ownership</a>, over one fifth of the country’s nursing facilities changed ownership between 2016 and 2021, four times more changes than hospitals.</p>
<p>A 2023 report by Good Jobs First, a nonprofit watchdog, noted that a dozen of these chains in the midsize range have <a href="https://goodjobsfirst.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Upheaval-in-the-Nursing-Home-Industry.pdf">doubled or tripled in size</a> while racking up fines averaging over $100,000 per facility since 2018. But unlike the large, multistate chains with easily recognizable names, the midsize networks slip through without the same level of public scrutiny, The Conversation’s investigations unit found.</p>
<p>“They are really bad, but the names − we don’t know these names,” said Toby Edelman, senior policy attorney with the Center for Medicare Advocacy, a nonprofit law organization. </p>
<p>“When we used to have those multistate chains, the facilities all had the same name, so you know what the quality is you’re getting,” she said. “It’s not that good − but at least you know what you’re getting.”</p>
<p>In response to The Conversation’s findings on nursing homes and request for an interview, a CMS spokesperson emailed <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24478510-nursing-home-information-request">a statement</a> that said the CMS is “unwavering in its commitment to improve safety and quality of care for the more than 1.2 million residents receiving care in Medicare- and Medicaid-certified nursing homes.”</p>
<p>The statement pointed to data released by the oversight body on <a href="https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2022/04/20/hhs-releases-new-data-and-report-hospital-and-nursing-home-ownership.html">mergers, acquisitions, consolidations and changes of ownership</a> in April 2023 along with <a href="https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2022/09/26/biden-harris-administration-makes-more-medicare-nursing-home-ownership-data-publicly-available-improving-identification-of-multiple-facilities-under-common-ownership.html">additional ownership data</a> released the following September. CMS also proposed a rule change that aims to increase transparency in nursing home ownership by <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/02/16/2024-03294/agency-information-collection-activities-proposed-collection-comment-request">collecting more information on facility owners and their affiliations</a>.</p>
<p>“Our focus is on advancing implementable solutions that promote safe, high-quality care for residents and consider the challenging circumstances some long-term care facilities face,” the statement reads. “We believe the proposed requirements are achievable and necessary.”</p>
<p>CMS is slated to implement the disclosure rules in the fall and release the new data to the public later this year.</p>
<p>“We support transparency and accountability,” the American Health Care Association/National Center for Assisted Living, a trade organization representing the nursing home industry, <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24475011-re-nursing-home-chains-and-cms-regulation-the-conversation-deadline-34-at-5pm-est">wrote in response</a> to The Conversation‘s request for comment. “But neither ownership nor line items on a budget sheet prove whether a nursing home is committed to its residents. Over the decades, we’ve found that strong organizations tend to have supportive and trusted leadership as well as a staff culture that empowers frontline caregivers to think critically and solve problems. These characteristics are not unique to a specific type or size of provider.”</p>
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<p>It often takes years to improve a poor nursing home − or <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/when-private-equity-takes-over-a-nursing-home">run one into the ground</a>. The analysis of midsize chains shows that most owners have been associated with their current facilities for less than eight years, making it difficult to separate operators who have taken long-term investments in resident care from those who are looking to quickly extract money and resources <a href="https://www.wpr.org/st-louis-nursing-home-closes-suddenly-prompting-wider-concerns-over-care">before closing them down or moving on</a>. These chains control roughly 41% of nursing home beds in the U.S., according to CMS’s provider data, making the lack of transparency especially ripe for abuse.</p>
<p>A churn of nursing home purchases even during the COVID-19 pandemic shows that investors view the sector as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/jgs.17288">highly profitable</a>, especially when staffing costs are kept low and fines for poor care can easily be covered by the money extracted from residents, their families and taxpayers.</p>
<p>“This is the model of their care: They come in, they understaff and they make their money,” said Sam Brooks, director of public policy at the Consumer Voice, a national resident advocacy organization. “Then they multiply it over a series of different facilities.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580534/original/file-20240307-30-57sogj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Side-by-side pictures of different nursing home residents asleep with their heads near dishes of food" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580534/original/file-20240307-30-57sogj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580534/original/file-20240307-30-57sogj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580534/original/file-20240307-30-57sogj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580534/original/file-20240307-30-57sogj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580534/original/file-20240307-30-57sogj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580534/original/file-20240307-30-57sogj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580534/original/file-20240307-30-57sogj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">These pictures showing residents asleep in their food appeared in the 2022 New York attorney general’s lawsuit against The Villages of Orleans Health and Rehabilitation Center in Albion, N.Y.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/orleans_nh_petition.pdf">New York State attorney general's office</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Investor race</h2>
<p>The explosion of a billion-dollar private marketplace found its beginnings in government spending.</p>
<p>The adoption of Medicare and Medicaid in 1965 set loose a race among investors to load up on nursing homes, with a surge in for-profit homes gaining momentum because of a reliable stream of government payouts. By 1972, a mere seven years after the inception of the programs, a whopping <a href="https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=umn.31951d00930792n&view=1up&seq=20">106 companies </a>had rushed to Wall Street to sell shares in nursing home companies. And little wonder: They pulled in profits through their ownership of 18% of the industry’s beds, securing about a third of the hefty $3.2 billion of government cash.</p>
<p>The 1990s saw substantial expansion in for-profit nursing home chains, marked by a wave of <a href="https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/nursing-home-divestiture-corporate-restructuring-final-report-0">acquisitions and mergers</a>. At the same time, increasing difficulties emerged in the model for publicly traded chains. <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/45140855">Shareholders increasingly demanded</a> rapid growth, and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2442234/">researchers have found</a> that the publicly traded chains tried to appease that hunger by reducing nursing staff and cutting corners on other measures meant to improve quality and safety.</p>
<p>“I began to suspect a possibly inherent contradiction between publicly traded and other large investor-operated nursing home companies and the prerequisites for quality care,” Paul R. Willging, former chief lobbyist for the industry, wrote in a 2007 letter to the editor of The New York Times. “For many investors … earnings growth, quarter after quarter, is often paramount. Long-term investments in quality can work at cross purposes with a mandate for an unending progression of favorable earnings reports.”</p>
<p>One example of that clash can be found at the Ensign Group, <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1125376/000112537613000022/ensg12311210k.htm">founded in 1999 as a private chain of five facilities</a>. Using a strategy of acquiring struggling nursing homes, the company <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1125376/000112537613000022/ensg12311210k.htm">went public in 2007 with more than 60 facilities</a>. What followed was a year-after-year acquisition binge and a track record of growing <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/00207314221077649">profits almost every year</a>. Yet the company <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/00207314221077649">kept staffing levels below</a> the national average and <a href="https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/elderjustice/legacy/2015/07/12/Appropriateness_of_Minimum_Nurse_Staffing_Ratios_in_Nursing_Homes.pdf">levels recommended by experts</a>. <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/00207314221077649">Its facilities had</a> higher than average inspection deficiencies and higher COVID infection rates. Since 2021, it has racked up more than <a href="https://data.cms.gov/quality-of-care/nursing-home-affiliated-entity-performance-measures/data">$6.5 million in penalties</a>.</p>
<p>Ensign did not respond to requests for comment. </p>
<p>Even with that kind of expense cutting, not all publicly traded nursing homes survived as the costs of providing poor care added up. Residents sued over mistreatment. Legal fees and settlements ate into profits, shareholders grumbled, and executives searched for a way out of this Catch-22.</p>
<p>Recognizing the long-term potential for profit growth, private investors snapped up publicly traded for-profit chains, reducing the previous levels of public transparency and oversight. Between 2000 and 2017, 1,674 nursing homes were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhad082">acquired by private-equity firms</a> in 128 unique deals out of 18,485 facilities. But the same poor-quality problems persisted. Research shows that after snagging a big chain, private investors tended to follow the same playbook: They <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/ppar/prad001">rebrand the company, increase corporate control and dump</a> unprofitable homes to other investment groups willing to take shortcuts for profit.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/ppar/prad001">Multiple</a> <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3860353">academic</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhad082">studies</a> show the results, highlighting the lower staffing and quality in for-profit homes compared with nonprofits and government-run facilities. Elderly residents staying long term in nursing homes owned by private investment groups experienced <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/ppar/prad001">a significant uptick</a> in trips to the emergency department and hospitalizations between 2013 and 2017, translating into higher costs for Medicare. </p>
<p>Overall, private-equity investors <a href="https://aspe.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/documents/29b280bc8ec7632e5742ab466f5429d2/ownership-structures-nh-facility-traits.pdf">wreak havoc</a> on nursing homes, slashing registered nurse hours per resident day by 12%, outpacing other for-profit facilities. The aftermath is grim, with a daunting 14% surge in the deficiency score index, a standardized metric for determining issues with facilities, according to a U.S. Department of Health and Human Services report.</p>
<p><iframe id="vmclY" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vmclY/9/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The human toll comes in death and suffering. A study updated in 2023 by the National Bureau of Economic Research <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhad082">calculated that 22,500 additional deaths</a> over a 12-year span were attributable to private-equity ownership, equating to about 172,400 lost life years. The calculations also showed that private-equity ownership was responsible for a 6.2% reduction in mobility, an 8.5% increase in ulcer development and a 10.5% uptick in pain intensity.</p>
<h2>Hiding in complexity</h2>
<p>Exposing the identities of who should be held responsible for such anguish poses a formidable task. Private investors in nursing home chains often employ a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/08959420.2012.705702">convoluted system</a> of limited liability corporations, related companies and family relationships <a href="https://theconsumervoice.org/news/detail/latest/new-report-nursing-homes-funnel-dollars-through-related-party-companies">to obscure who controls</a> the nursing homes. </p>
<p>These adjustments are crafted to minimize liability, capitalize on favorable tax policies, diminish regulatory scrutiny and disguise nursing home profitability. In this investigation, entities at every level of involvement with a nursing home denied ownership, even though the same people controlled each organization.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2023/11/17/2023-25408/medicare-and-medicaid-programs-disclosures-of-ownership-and-additional-disclosable-parties">rule put in place in 2023</a> by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services requires the identification of all private-equity and real estate investment trust investors in a facility and the release of all related party names. But this hasn’t been enough to surface the players and relationships. More than half of ownership data provided to CMS is incomplete across all facilities, according to a <a href="https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/10.1377/hlthaff.2023.01110">March 2024 analysis</a> of the newly released data.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579969/original/file-20240305-20-bjd535.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Complicated graphic with 21 intertwined items" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579969/original/file-20240305-20-bjd535.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579969/original/file-20240305-20-bjd535.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579969/original/file-20240305-20-bjd535.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579969/original/file-20240305-20-bjd535.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579969/original/file-20240305-20-bjd535.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579969/original/file-20240305-20-bjd535.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579969/original/file-20240305-20-bjd535.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nursing home investors drained more than $18 million out of a single facility through a complex web of related party transactions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/villages_memorandum_of_law.pdf">New York State attorney general's office</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even the land under the nursing home is often owned by someone else. In 2021, publicly traded or private real estate investment trusts <a href="https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2022.00278">held a sizable chunk</a> of the approximately $120 billion of nursing home real estate. As with homes owned by private-equity investors, <a href="https://aspe.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/documents/29b280bc8ec7632e5742ab466f5429d2/ownership-structures-nh-facility-traits.pdf">quality measures collapse</a> after REITs get involved, with facilities witnessing a 7% decline in registered nurses’ hours per resident day and an alarming 14% ascent in the deficiency score index. It’s a blatant pattern of disruption, leaving facilities and care standards in a dire state.</p>
<p>Part of that quality collapse comes from the way these investment entities make their money. REITs and their owners <a href="https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2022.00278">can drain cash out</a> of the nursing homes in a number of different ways. The standard tactic for grabbing the money is known as a triple-net lease, where the REIT buys the property then leases it back to the nursing home, often <a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=4209720">at exorbitant rates</a>. Although the nursing home then lacks possession of the property, it still gets slammed with costs typically shouldered by an owner − real estate taxes, insurance, maintenance and more. Topping it off, the facilities then must typically pay annual rent hikes.</p>
<p>A second tactic that REITs use involves a contracting façade that serves no purpose other than enriching the owners of the trusts. Since triple-net lease agreements prohibit REITs from taking profits from operating the facilities, the investors create a subsidiary to get past that hurdle. The subsidiary then contracts with a nursing home operator − often owned or controlled by another related party − and then demands a fee for providing operational guidance. The use of REITs for near-risk-free profits from nursing homes has proven to be an ever-growing technique, and <a href="https://aspe.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/documents/29b280bc8ec7632e5742ab466f5429d2/ownership-structures-nh-facility-traits.pdf">the midsize chains</a>, which our investigation found generally provided the worst care, grew in their reliance on REITs during the pandemic.</p>
<p>“When these REITs start coming in … nursing homes are saddled with these enormous rents, and then they wind up going out of business,” said Richard Mollot, executive director of the <a href="https://nursinghome411.org/">Long-Term Care Community Coalition</a>, a nonprofit organization that advocates for better care at nursing homes. “It’s no longer a viable facility.”</p>
<p>The churn of nursing home purchases by midsize chains underscores investors’ perception of the sector’s profitability, particularly when staffing expenses are minimized and penalties for subpar care can be offset by money extracted through related transactions and payments from residents, their families and taxpayers. Lawsuits can drag out over years, and in the worst case, if a facility is forced to close, its land and other assets can be sold to minimize the financial loss.</p>
<p>Take Brius Healthcare, a name that resonates with a disturbing cadence in the world of nursing home ownership. A search of the federal database for nursing home ownership and penalties shows that Brius was <a href="https://data.cms.gov/quality-of-care/nursing-home-affiliated-entity-performance-measures/data">responsible for 32 facilities</a> as of the start of 2024, but the true number is <a href="http://briuswatch.org/brius-facilities/">closer to 80</a>, according to BriusWatch.org, which tracks violations. At the helm of this still midsize network stands Shlomo Rechnitz, who became a billionaire in part <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24225027-us-v-brius">by siphoning from government payments</a> to his facilities scattered across California, according to a federal and state lawsuit.</p>
<p><a href="https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/21069802/complaint-2.pdf">In lawsuits</a> and regulators’ criticisms, Rechnitz’s homes <a href="http://briuswatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/2018-06-12-Campbell-v-RechnitzAlamedaHWCet.al_..pdf">have been associated</a> with tales of abuse, as well as several lawsuits alleging terrible care. The track record was so bad that, in the summer of 2014, then-California Attorney General Kamala Harris filed an <a href="https://www.scribd.com/doc/268424325/Emergency-Motion-Calif-AG-8-28-14?secret_password=GhxgjwaQFhWc8aNGjmWj">emergency motion</a> to block Rechnitz from acquiring 19 facilities, writing that he was “a serial violator of rules within the skilled nursing industry” and was “not qualified to assume such an important role.”</p>
<p>Yet, Rechnitz’s empire in California surged forward, scooping up more facilities that drained hundreds of millions of federal and state funds as they <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/12/31/brius-nursing-home/">racked up pain and profit</a>. The narrative played out at Windsor Redding Care Center in Redding, California. Rechnitz bought it from a competing nursing home chain and attempted to obtain a license to operate the facility. But in 2016, the California Department of Public Health <a href="https://canhr.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/River-Valley-Healthcare-and-Wellness-Centre-CHOW-Denial-1.pdf">refused the application</a>, citing a staggering 265 federal regulatory violations across his other nursing homes over just three years.</p>
<p>According to court filings, Rechnitz formed <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24460115-brius-redding_042722#document/p7/a2433390">a joint venture with other investors</a> who in turn held the license. Rechnitz, through the Brius joint venture, became the unlicensed owner and operator of Windsor Redding.</p>
<p>Brius carved away at expenses, <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24223812-windsor-nursing">slashing staff and other care necessities</a>, according to a 2022 California lawsuit. One resident was left to sit in her urine and feces for hours at a time. Overwhelmed staff often did not respond to her call light, so once she instead climbed out of bed unassisted, fell and fractured her hip. Other negligence led to pressure ulcers, and when she was finally transferred to a hospital, she was suffering from sepsis. She was not alone in her suffering. <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24224925-windsor">Numerous other residents</a> experienced an unrelenting litany of injuries and illnesses, including pressure ulcers, urinary tract infections from poor hygiene, falls, and skin damage from excess moisture, according to the lawsuit.</p>
<p>In 2023, California moved forward with <a href="https://calmatters.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/CHOW-Settlement-Agreement-MAJ-SR-KRS-CD-signed-FINAL.pdf">licensing two dozen</a> of Rechnitz’s facilities with an agreement that included a two-year monitoring period, <a href="https://calmatters.org/health/2023/06/nursing-homes-california/">right before statewide reforms</a> were set to take effect. The reforms don’t prevent existing owners like Rechnitz from continuing to run a nursing home without a license, but they do prevent new operators from doing so.</p>
<p>“We’re seeing more of that, I think, where you have a proliferation of really bad operators that keep being provided homes,” said Brooks, the director of public policy at the Consumer Voice. “There’s just so much money to be made here for unscrupulous people, and it just happens all the time.”</p>
<p>Rechnitz did not respond to multiple requests for comment. Bruis also did not respond.</p>
<p>Perhaps no other chain showcases the havoc that can be caused by one individual’s acquisition of multiple nursing homes than <a href="https://skillednursingnews.com/2019/04/nursing-homes-held-by-skyline-owner-face-crisis-bouncing-paychecks-in-mass/">Skyline Health Care</a>. The company’s owner, Joseph Schwartz, parlayed the sale of his insurance business into ownership of 90 facilities between mid-2016 and December 2017, according to a <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24170670-skylineindictment">federal indictment</a>. He ran the company out of an office <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCOURTS-mdd-1_20-cv-01353/pdf/USCOURTS-mdd-1_20-cv-01353-0.pdf">above a New Jersey pizzeria</a> and at its peak managed facilities in 11 states.</p>
<p>Schwartz went all-in on cost cutting, and by early 2018, residents were suffering from the shortage of staff. The company <a href="https://www.medicareadvocacy.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Centers-Statement-on-Nursing-Home-Hearing.pdf">wasn’t paying its bills</a> or its <a href="https://www.mass.gov/news/skyline-healthcare-owner-five-massachusetts-nursing-homes-cited-for-wage-theft">workers</a>. More than a dozen lawsuits piled up. Last year, Schwartz was arrested and faced charges in federal district court in New Jersey for his role in a <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/owner-health-care-and-rehabilitation-facilities-indicted-38-million-payroll-tax-scheme">$38 million payroll tax scheme</a>. In 2024, Schwartz <a href="https://www.justice.gov/usao-nj/pr/insurance-producer-admits-tax-fraud-scheme">pleaded guilty</a> to his role in the fraud scheme. He is awaiting sentencing, where he <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24443941-schwartz_plea_20240117">faces a year in prison</a> along with paying at least $5 million in restitution.</p>
<p>Skyline collapsed and <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/health/aging/nursing-home-chain-grows-too-fast-collapses-elderly-disabled-residents-n1025381">disrupted thousands of lives</a>. Some states took over facilities; others closed, forcing residents to relocate and throwing families into chaos. The case also highlights the ease with which some bad operators can snap up nursing homes with little difficulty, with federal and state governments allowing ownership changes with little or no review.</p>
<p>Schwartz’s lawyer did not respond to requests for comment.</p>
<p>Not that nursing homes have much to fear in the public perception of their reputation for quality. CMS uses what is known as the <a href="https://www.cms.gov/medicare/health-safety-standards/certification-compliance/five-star-quality-rating-system">Five-Star Quality Rating System</a>, designed to help consumers compare nursing homes to find one that provides good care. Theoretically, nursing homes with five-star ratings are supposed to be exceptional, while those with one-star ratings are deemed the worst. But research shows that nursing homes <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1077558717739214">can game the system</a>, with the result that a top star rating might reflect little more than a facility’s willingness to cheat.</p>
<p>A star rating is composed of three parts: The score from a government inspection and the facility’s self-reports of staffing and quality. This means that what the nursing homes say about themselves can boost the star rating of facilities even if they have poor inspection results.</p>
<p><a href="https://nihcm.org/publications/do-nursing-homes-inflate-their-medicare-star-ratings-by-self-reporting-overly-positive-assessments">Multiple studies</a> have highlighted a concerning trend: Some nursing homes, especially for-profit ones, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.3063">inflate their self-reported measures</a>, resulting in a disconnect from actual inspection findings. Notably, research suggests that for-profit nursing homes, driven by significant financial motives, are more likely to engage in this practice of inflating their self-reported assessments.</p>
<p>At bottom, the elderly and their families seeking quality care unknowingly find themselves in an impossible situation with for-profit nursing homes: Those facilities tend to provide the worst quality, and the only measure available for consumers to determine where they will be treated well can be rigged. The result is the transformation of an industry meant to care for the most vulnerable into a profit-driven circus.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579741/original/file-20240305-20-b5d09r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Close-up of an elderly woman's head leaning on her hand" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579741/original/file-20240305-20-b5d09r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579741/original/file-20240305-20-b5d09r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579741/original/file-20240305-20-b5d09r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579741/original/file-20240305-20-b5d09r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579741/original/file-20240305-20-b5d09r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579741/original/file-20240305-20-b5d09r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579741/original/file-20240305-20-b5d09r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The for-profit nursing home sector is growing, and it places a premium on cost cutting and big profits, which has led to low staffing and patient neglect and mistreatment.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/february-2024-baden-württemberg-na-a-resident-of-a-nursing-news-photo/1985540302">picture alliance via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The pandemic</h2>
<p>Nothing more clearly exposed the problems rampant in nursing homes than the pandemic. Throughout that time, <a href="https://data.cms.gov/covid-19/covid-19-nursing-home-data">nursing homes reported</a> that almost 2 million residents had infections and 170,000 died.</p>
<p>No one should have been surprised by the mass death in nursing homes − the warning signs of what was to come had been visible for years. Between 2013 and 2017, infection control was the <a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-20-576r.pdf">most frequently cited deficiency</a> in nursing homes, with 40% of facilities cited each year and 82% cited at least once in the five-year period. Almost half were cited over multiple consecutive years for these deficiencies − if fixed, one of the big causes of the widespread transmission of COVID in these facilities would have been eliminated.</p>
<p>But shortly after coming into office in 2017, the Trump administration weakened what was already a deteriorating system to regulate nursing homes. The administration <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/24/business/trump-administration-nursing-home-penalties.html">directed regulators to issue one-time fines</a> against nursing homes for violations of federal rules rather than for the full time they were out of compliance. This shift meant that even nursing homes with severe infractions lasting weeks were exempted from fines surpassing the maximum per-instance penalty of $20,965.</p>
<p>Even that near-worthless level of regulation was not feeble enough for the industry, so lobbyists pressed for less. In response, just a few months before COVID emerged in China, the Trump administration <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/07/18/2019-14946/medicare-and-medicaid-programs-requirements-for-long-term-care-facilities-regulatory-provisions-to">implemented new regulations</a> that effectively abolished a mandate for each to hire a full-time infection control expert, instead <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/article/trump-administrations-deregulation-nursing-homes-leaves-seniors-disabled-higher-risk-covid-19/">recommending outside consultants</a> for the job.</p>
<p>The perfect storm had been reached, with no experts required to be on site, prepared to combat any infection outbreaks. On Jan. 20, 2020 − just 186 days after the change in rules on infection control − the CDC <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/museum/timeline/covid19.html#:%7E:text=January%2020%2C%202020,respond%20to%20the%20emerging%20outbreak.">reported that the first</a> laboratory-confirmed case of COVID had been found at a nursing home in Washington state.</p>
<p>The least prepared in this explosion of disease were the for-profit nursing homes, compared with nonprofit and government facilities. Research from the University of California at San Francisco found those facilities were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1527154420938707">linked to higher numbers</a> of COVID cases. For-profits not only had fewer nurses on staff but also high numbers of infection-control deficiencies and lower compliance with health regulations.</p>
<p>Even as the United States went through the crisis, some owners of midsize chains continued snapping up nursing homes. For example, two Brooklyn businessmen named Simcha Hyman and Naftali Zanziper were going on a nursing home <a href="https://pe-insights.com/news/2020/08/07/as-the-pandemic-struck-a-private-equity-firm-went-on-a-nursing-home-buying-spree/">buying spree</a> through their private-equity company, the Portopiccolo Group. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/portopiccolo-nursing-homes-maryland/2020/12/21/a1ffb2a6-292b-11eb-9b14-ad872157ebc9_story.html">Despite poor ratings</a> in their previously owned facilities, nothing blocked the acquisitions.</p>
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<p>One such facility was a struggling nursing home in North Carolina now known as The Citadel Salisbury. Following the traditional pattern forged by private investors in the industry, the new owners set up a <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24174455-citadellawsuit_051721#document/p18/a2409687">convoluted network of business</a> entities and then used them to charge the nursing home for services and property. A 2021 federal lawsuit of many plaintiffs claimed that they deliberately <a href="https://www.classaction.org/media/hooker-et-al-v-the-citadel-salisbury-llc-et-al.pdf">kept the facility understaffed</a> and undersupplied to maximize profit.</p>
<p>Within months of the first case of COVID reported in America, The Citadel Salisbury experienced the largest nursing home outbreak in the state. The situation was so dire that on April 20, 2020, the local medical director of the emergency room <a href="https://www.salisburypost.com/2020/04/20/john-bream-outbreak-at-citadel-nursing-home-especially-concerning/">took to the local newspaper</a> to express his distress, revealing that he had pressed the facility’s leadership and the local health department to address the known shortcomings.</p>
<p>The situation was “a blueprint for exactly what not to do in a crisis,” medical director John Bream wrote. “Patients died at the Citadel without family members being notified. Families were denied the ability to have one last meaningful interaction with their family. Employees were wrongly denied personal protective equipment. There has been no transparency.”</p>
<p>After a <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24174486-citadelinspection_090221">series of scathing inspection reports</a>, the <a href="https://www.cms.gov/files/document/north-carolina-citadel-salisbury-05-04-2022.pdf">facility finally closed</a> in the spring of 2022. As for the federal lawsuit, court documents show that a tentative agreement was reached in 2023. But the case dragged out for nearly three years, and one of the plaintiffs, Sybil Rummage, <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24174489-deathrecord_102423">died while seeking accountability</a> through the court.</p>
<p>Still, the pandemic had been a time of great success for Hyman and Zanziper. At the end of 2020, they owned more than 70 facilities. By 2021, their portfolio had exploded to more than 120. Now, according to data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Hyman and Zanziper are associated with at least 131 facilities and have the highest amount of total fines recorded by the agency for affiliated entities, totaling nearly $12 million since 2021. And their average fine per facility, as calculated by CMS, is <a href="https://data.cms.gov/quality-of-care/nursing-home-affiliated-entity-performance-measures/data">more than twice the national average</a> at almost $90,000.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24459663-media-request-the-conversation-nursing-home-regulations-and-portopiccolo-deadline-124-12pm">written statement</a>, Portopiccolo Group spokesperson John Collins disputed that the facilities had skimped on care and argued that they were not managed by the firm. “We hire experienced, local health care teams who are in charge of making all on-the-ground decisions and are committed to putting residents first.” He added that the number of facilities given by CMS was inaccurate but declined to say how many are connected to its network of affiliates or owned by Hyman and Zanziper.</p>
<p>With the nearly 170,000 resident deaths from COVID and many related fatalities from isolation and neglect in nursing homes, in February 2022 President Biden <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/28/fact-sheet-protecting-seniors-and-people-with-disabilities-by-improving-safety-and-quality-of-care-in-the-nations-nursing-homes/">announced an initiative</a> aimed at improving the industry. In addition to promising to set a minimum staffing standard, the initiative is focused on improving ownership and financial transparency.</p>
<p>“As Wall Street firms take over more nursing homes, quality in those homes has gone down and costs have gone up. That ends on my watch,” Biden said during his 2022 State of the Union address. “Medicare is going to set higher standards for nursing homes and make sure your loved ones get the care they deserve and expect.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579699/original/file-20240304-189996-65mwly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="President Biden sitting at a desk signing with a crowd gathered around him" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579699/original/file-20240304-189996-65mwly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579699/original/file-20240304-189996-65mwly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579699/original/file-20240304-189996-65mwly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579699/original/file-20240304-189996-65mwly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579699/original/file-20240304-189996-65mwly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579699/original/file-20240304-189996-65mwly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579699/original/file-20240304-189996-65mwly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Joe Biden signed an executive order on April 18, 2023, that directed the secretary of health and human services to consider actions that would build on nursing home minimum staffing standards and improve staff retention.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-signs-an-executive-order-in-the-rose-news-photo/1251960535">Nathan Posner/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Still, the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/09/01/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-takes-steps-to-crack-down-on-nursing-homes-that-endanger-resident-safety/">current trajectory of actions</a> appears to fall short of what’s needed. While penalties against facilities have sharply increased under Biden, some of the Trump administration’s weak regulations have not been replaced. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?pubId=202310&RIN=0938-AV25">rule</a> proposed by CMS in September 2023 and <a href="https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eoDetails?rrid=431762">released for review</a> in March 2024 would require states to report what percentage of Medicaid funding is used to pay direct care workers and support staff and would <a href="https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/medicare-and-medicaid-programs-minimum-staffing-standards-long-term-care-facilities-and-medicaid">require an RN on duty 24/7. It would also require a minimum of three hours</a> of skilled staffing care per patient per day. But the three-hour minimum is substantially lower than the 4.1 hours of skilled staffing for nursing home residents <a href="https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/elderjustice/legacy/2015/07/12/Appropriateness_of_Minimum_Nurse_Staffing_Ratios_in_Nursing_Homes.pdf">suggested by CMS over two decades ago</a>.</p>
<p>The requirements are also lower than the <a href="https://data.cms.gov/quality-of-care/nursing-home-affiliated-entity-performance-measures/data">3.8 average nursing staff hours</a> already employed by U.S. facilities.</p>
<p>The current administration has also let stand the <a href="https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/press-releases/cms-rules-put-patients-first-updating-requirements-arbitration-agreements-and-new-regulations-put#:%7E:text=CMS%20is%20allowing%20binding%20arbitration,to%20sign%20a%20binding%20arbitration">Trump administration reversal</a> of an Obama rule that banned binding arbitration agreements in nursing homes.</p>
<h2>It breaks a village</h2>
<p>The Villages of Orleans Health and Rehabilitation Center in Albion, New York, was, by any reasonable measure, broken. Court records show that <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24438756-e22_00582_people_of_the_state_of_v_people_of_the_state_of_exhibit_s__16">on some days there was no nurse and no medication</a> for the more than 100 elderly residents. Underpaid staff <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24444996-orleans_nh_petition#document/p112/a2431650">spent their own cash for soap</a> to keep residents clean. At times, the home <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24444996-orleans_nh_petition#document/p40/a2431651">didn’t feed</a> its frail occupants.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, according to a 2022 lawsuit filed by the New York attorney general, <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24444996-orleans_nh_petition#document/p8/a2431653">riches were siphoned out of the nursing home</a> and into the pockets of the official owner, Bernard Fuchs, as well as assorted friends, business associates and family. The lawsuit says $18.7 million flowed from the facility to entities owned by a group of men who controlled the Village’s operations.</p>
<p>Although these men own various nursing homes, Medicare records show few connections between them, despite them all being investors in Comprehensive Healthcare Management, which provided administrative services to the Villages. Either they or their families were also owners of Telegraph Realty, which <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24444996-orleans_nh_petition#document/p11/a2431654">leased what was once the Villages’ own property back</a> to the facility at rates the New York attorney general deemed exorbitant, predatory and a sham.</p>
<p>So it goes in the world of nursing home ownership, where overlapping entities and investors obscure the interrelationships between them to such a degree that Medicare itself is never quite sure who owns what.</p>
<p>Glenn Jones, a lawyer representing Comprehensive Healthcare Management, declined to comment on the pending litigation, but he forwarded a <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24444995-2023-04-17-296-mol-in-support-of-nom-to-dismiss-4881-0186-0702-1">court document his law firm filed</a> that labels the allegations brought by the New York attorney general “unfounded” and reliant on “a mere fraction” of its residents.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580541/original/file-20240307-16-qd3106.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Side-by-side pictures of a man in a wheelchair with glasses in November, 2019 and the same man looking less alert, unshaven and with an eye wound in December, 2019" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580541/original/file-20240307-16-qd3106.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580541/original/file-20240307-16-qd3106.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580541/original/file-20240307-16-qd3106.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580541/original/file-20240307-16-qd3106.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580541/original/file-20240307-16-qd3106.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580541/original/file-20240307-16-qd3106.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580541/original/file-20240307-16-qd3106.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">These pictures of the same resident one month apart at the Holliswood Center for Rehabilitation and Healthcare in Queens appeared in a 2023 New York attorney general lawsuit against 13 LLCs and 14 individuals. The group owns multiple nursing homes and allegedly neglected residents, while owners siphoned Medicare and Medicaid money into their own pockets.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/court-filings/centers-filed-petition.pdf">New York attorney general's office</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>The shadowy structure of ownership and related party transactions plays an enormous role in how investors enrich themselves, even as the nursing homes they control struggle financially. Compounding the issue, the figures reported by nursing homes regarding payments to related parties <a href="https://theconsumervoice.org/news/detail/latest/new-report-nursing-homes-funnel-dollars-through-related-party-companies">frequently diverge</a> from the disclosures made by the related parties themselves.</p>
<p>As an illustration of the problems, consider <a href="https://pruitthealth.com/">Pruitt Health</a>, a midsize chain with <a href="https://data.cms.gov/quality-of-care/nursing-home-affiliated-entity-performance-measures/data">87 nursing homes</a> spread across Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Florida that had low overall federal quality ratings and about $2 million in penalties. A report by The National Consumer Voice For Quality Long-Term Care, a consumer advocacy group, <a href="https://theconsumervoice.org/news/detail/latest/new-report-nursing-homes-funnel-dollars-through-related-party-companies">shows that Pruitt disclosed</a> general related party costs nearing $482 million from 2018 to 2020. Yet in that same time frame, Pruitt reported payments to specific related parties amounting to about $570 million, indicating a $90 million excess. Its federal disclosures offer no explanation for the discrepancy. Meanwhile, the company reported $77 million in overall losses on its homes.</p>
<p>The same pattern holds in the major chains such as the Cleveland, Tennessee-based Life Care Centers of America, which operates roughly 200 nursing homes across 27 states, according to the report. Life Care’s financial disbursements are fed into a diverse spectrum of related entities, including management, staffing, insurance and therapy companies, all firmly under the umbrella of the organization’s ownership. In fiscal year 2018, the financial commitment to these affiliated entities reached $386,449,502; over the three-year period from 2018 to 2020, Life Care’s documented payments to such parties hit an eye-popping $1.25 billion.</p>
<p>Pruitt Health and Life Care Centers did not respond to requests for comment.</p>
<p>Overall, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/27551938231221509">77% of US nursing homes reported $11 billion</a> in related-party transactions in 2019 − nearly 10% of total net revenues − but the data is unaudited and unverified. The facilities <a href="https://theconsumervoice.org/news/detail/latest/new-report-nursing-homes-funnel-dollars-through-related-party-companies">are not required to provide any details</a> of what specific services were provided by the related parties, or what were the specific profits and administrative costs, creating a lack of transparency regarding expenses that are ambiguously categorized under generic labels such as “maintenance.” Significantly, there is no mandate to disclose whether any of these costs exceed fair market value.</p>
<p>What that means is that nursing home owners can profit handsomely through related parties even if their facilities are being hit with repeated fines for providing substandard care.</p>
<p>“What we would consider to be a big penalty really doesn’t matter because there’s so much money coming in,” said Mollot of the Long-Term Care Community Coalition. “If the facility fails, so what? It doesn’t matter. They pulled out the resources.’’</p>
<p><iframe id="DGcNl" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/DGcNl/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Hiding profit</h2>
<p>Ultimately, experts say, this ability to drain cash out of nursing homes makes it almost impossible for anyone to assess the profitability of these facilities based on their public financial filings, known as cost reports.</p>
<p>"The profit margins (for nursing homes) also should be taken with a grain of salt in the cost reports,” said Dr. R. Tamara Konetzka, a University of Chicago professor of public health sciences, at a <a href="https://nursinghome411.org/policybriefing-dec28/">recent meeting</a> of the <a href="https://www.medpac.gov/">Medicare Payment Advisory Commission</a>. “If you sell the real estate to a REIT or to some other entity, and you pay sort of inflated rent back to make your profit margins look lower, and then you recoup that profit because it’s a related party, we’re not going to find that in the cost reports.”</p>
<p>That ability to hide profits is key to nursing homes’ ability to block regulations to improve quality of care and to demand greater government payments. For decades, the <a href="https://www.ahcancal.org/News-and-Communications/Press-Releases/Pages/Long-Term-Care-Closures-Mount-As-COVID-19-Exacerbates-Financial-Shortfalls.aspx">industry’s refrain</a> has been that cuts in reimbursements or requirements to increase staffing will drive facilities into bankruptcy; already, they claim, half of all nursing homes are teetering on the edge of collapse, <a href="https://www.ahcancal.org/News-and-Communications/Press-Releases/Pages/Long-Term-Care-Closures-Mount-As-COVID-19-Exacerbates-Financial-Shortfalls.aspx">the result, they say, of inadequate Medicaid rates</a>. All in all, the industry reports that <a href="https://www.ahcancal.org/News-and-Communications/Press-Releases/Pages/Long-Term-Care-Closures-Mount-As-COVID-19-Exacerbates-Financial-Shortfalls.aspx">less than 3%</a> of their revenue goes to earnings.</p>
<p>But that does not include any of the revenue pulled out of the homes to boost profits of related parties controlled by the same owners pleading poverty. And this tactic is only one of several ways that the nursing home industry disguises its true profits, giving it the power to plead poverty to an unknowing government.</p>
<p>Under the regulations, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/27551938231221509">only certain nursing home expenses are reimbursable</a>, such as money spent for care. Many others − unreasonable payments to the headquarters of chains, luxury items, and fees for lobbyists and lawyers − are disallowed after Medicare reviews the cost reports. But by that time, the government has already reimbursed the nursing homes for those expenses − and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/27551938231221509">none of those revenues have to be returned</a>.</p>
<p>Data indicates that owners also profit by overcharging nursing homes for services and leases provided by related entities. A March 2024 study from Lehigh University and the University of California, Los Angeles <a href="https://ucla.app.box.com/v/RelatedParties">shows that costs were inflated</a> when nursing home owners changed from independent contractors to businesses owned or controlled directly or indirectly by the same people. Overall, spending on real estate increased 20.4%, and spending on management increased 24.6% when the businesses were affiliated, the research showed.</p>
<p>Nursing homes also claim that <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/27551938231221509">noncash depreciation cuts into their profits</a>. Those expenses, which show up only in accounting ledgers, assume that assets such as equipment and facilities are gradually decreasing in value and ultimately will need to be replaced.</p>
<p>That might be reasonable if the chains purchased new items once their value depreciated to zero, but that is not always true. <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GOVPUB-Y3_M46_3-PURL-LPS49906/pdf/GOVPUB-Y3_M46_3-PURL-LPS49906.pdf">A 2004 report</a> by the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission found that the depreciation claimed by health care companies, including nursing homes, may not reflect actual capital expenditures or the actual market value.</p>
<p>If disallowed expenses and noncash depreciation were not included, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/27551938231221509">profit margins for the nursing home industry would jump</a> to 8.8%, far more than the 3% it claims. And given that these numbers all come from nursing home cost reports submitted to the government, they may underestimate the profits even more. Audited cost reports are not required, and the <a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-16-700.pdf">Government Accountability Office has found</a> that CMS does little to ensure the numbers are correct and complete. </p>
<p>This lack of basic oversight essentially gives dishonest nursing home owners the power to grab more money from Medicare and Medicaid while being empowered to claim that their financials prove they need more.</p>
<p>“They face no repercussions,” Brooks of Consumer Voice said, commenting on the current state of nursing home operations and their unscrupulous owners. “That’s why these people are here. It’s a bonanza to them.”</p>
<p>Ultimately, experts say, finding ways to force nursing homes to provide quality care has remained elusive. Michael Gelder, former senior health policy adviser to then-Gov. Pat Quinn of Illinois, learned that brutal lesson in 2010 as head of a task force formed by Quinn to investigate nursing home quality. That group successfully pushed a new law, but Gelder now says his success failed to protect this country’s most vulnerable citizens.</p>
<p>“I was perhaps naively convinced that someone like myself being in the right place at the right time with enough resources could really fix this problem,” he said. “I think we did the absolute best we could, and the best that had ever been done in modern history up to that point. But it wasn’t enough. It’s a battle every generation has to fight.”</p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/how-for-profit-nursing-home-regulators-can-use-the-powers-they-already-have-to-fix-growing-problems-with-poor-quality-care-225053">Click to learn more about how some existing tools</a> can address problems with for-profit nursing homes.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225045/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Campbell is an adjunct assistant professor at Columbia University and a contributing writer at the Garrison Project, an independent news organization that focuses on mass incarceration and criminal justice.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Harrington is an advisory board member of the nonprofit Veteran's Health Policy Institute and a board member of the nonprofit Center for Health Information and Policy. Harrington served as an expert witness on nursing home litigation cases by residents against facilities owned or operated by Brius and Shlomo Rechnitz in the past and in 2022. She also served as an expert witness in a case against The Citadel Salisbury in North Carolina in 2021.
</span></em></p>Owners of midsize nursing home chains drain billions from facilities, hiding behind opaque accounting practices and harming the elderly as government, which has the power to stop it, falls short.Sean Campbell, Investigative journalist, The ConversationCharlene Harrington, Professor Emeritus of Social Behavioral Sciences, University of California, San FranciscoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2250532024-03-14T12:46:04Z2024-03-14T12:46:04ZHow for-profit nursing home regulators can use the powers they already have to fix growing problems with poor-quality care<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579738/original/file-20240304-22-wj7pxu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5760%2C3837&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nursing homes care for more than a million people in the U.S.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/NursingHomeHigh/7c838b5ffe0a4558bde70f78d42f123e/photo">AP Photo/Richard Drew</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Governments at both state and federal levels have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/ppar/prad001">yet to fully wield their authority</a> to fight poor-quality care at for-profit nursing homes nationwide, leaving the pressing need for elder care accountability unmet.</p>
<p>Medicare has the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/ppar/prad001">power to improve financial accountability</a> at nursing facilities by capping profits while requiring that a percentage of revenues be spent on direct care expenditures. Already, four states – New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/ppar/prad001">have shown this can be done</a>, passing laws requiring minimum percentages of expenditures on direct care while limiting profits.</p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://profiles.ucsf.edu/charlene.harrington">behavioral scientist</a> at the University of California, San Francisco who studies the economics of nursing homes and the implications for care. I am also the co-author of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-profit-nursing-homes-are-cutting-corners-on-safety-and-draining-resources-with-financial-shenanigans-especially-at-midsize-chains-that-dodge-public-scrutiny-225045">investigative piece in The Conversation</a> about for-profit nursing homes.</p>
<p>States also have the power to suspend and disqualify nursing home owners from the Medicaid program when they provide poor-quality care, commit fraud or harm residents. </p>
<p>For example, after the New Jersey comptroller <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/princeton-care-center-abrupt-closure-law-violation/">concluded that the abrupt closure</a> of the Princeton Care Center nursing home in September 2023 jeopardized the health and safety of residents, the state took action. It <a href="https://nj.gov/comptroller/news/2024/20240116.shtml#:%7E:text=The%20Office%20of%20the%20State,other%20Medicaid%2Dfunded%20nursing%20homes.">moved in January 2024 to impose an eight-year ban</a> on the owners’ ability to receive Medicaid reimbursement at any nursing home and to require them to divest themselves from <a href="https://nj.gov/comptroller/news/2024/20240116.shtml#:%7E:text=The%20Office%20of%20the%20State,other%20Medicaid%2Dfunded%20nursing%20homes.">two other facilities they already ran</a>.</p>
<p>The federal government can also take aggressive actions to force the industry to shape up, even without new legislation. A 2023 <a href="https://scholarship.law.wm.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4001&context=wmlr">law review article</a> demonstrates that state and federal governments could use state licensure laws and federal nursing home certification requirements to prevent abuse. The article argues that governments could set clear nursing home ownership and operation criteria for individuals and companies, which can include experience, expertise, reputation, past performance and financial solvency standards.</p>
<p>Even federal prosecutors have largely unused powers to crack down on the industry. The Department of Justice <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/department-justice-launches-national-nursing-home-initiative">has taken actions</a> against many nursing home owners and chains but rarely has moved to remove the certification of facilities despite having the authority to do so. Instead, nursing homes subject to legal action by the department generally are placed under what is known as a corporate integrity agreement and assigned a monitor to oversee regulatory compliance.</p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://oig.hhs.gov/fraud/cia/agreements/Saber_Healthcare_Holdings_LLC_et_al_03312020.pdf">Saber Healthcare Holdings</a>, which owned <a href="https://data.cms.gov/quality-of-care/nursing-home-affiliated-entity-performance-measures/data">126 nursing homes</a> in 2024, was placed under a <a href="https://oig.hhs.gov/faqs/corporate-integrity-agreement-faq/">corporate integrity agreement</a> in 2021. </p>
<p>The question remains: Why haven’t governments fully flexed their existing regulatory muscles to enforce vital reforms in nursing homes? With the welfare of vulnerable residents at stake, the urgency for decisive action has never been clearer.</p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/for-profit-nursing-homes-are-cutting-corners-on-safety-and-draining-resources-with-financial-shenanigans-especially-at-midsize-chains-that-dodge-public-scrutiny-225045">Read The Conversation’s investigation</a> to learn more about the nation’s for-profit nursing homes and how they’re cutting corners on safety.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225053/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Harrington is a advisory board member of the nonprofit Veteran's Health Policy Institute and a board member of the nonprofit Center for Health Information and Policy. Harrington served as an expert witness on nursing home litigation cases by residents against facilities owned or operated by Brius and Shlomo Rechnitz in the past and in 2022. She also served as an expert witness in a case against The Citadel Salisbury in North Carolina in 2021.
</span></em></p>Governments can do more to protect patients at for-profit nursing homes. A behavioral scientist who studies nursing homes weighs in.Charlene Harrington, Professor Emeritus of Social Behavioral Sciences, University of California, San FranciscoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2222152024-03-14T12:44:55Z2024-03-14T12:44:55ZTrump nearly derailed democracy once − here’s what to watch out for in reelection campaign<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580558/original/file-20240307-22-g07jxw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C9%2C6390%2C4780&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">'We did win this election,' said then-President Donald Trump at the White House early on Nov. 4, 2020, on what was still election night.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-combination-of-pictures-created-on-november-04-2020-news-photo/1229450800?adppopup=true">Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Elections are the bedrock of democracy, essential for choosing representatives and holding them accountable. </p>
<p>The U.S. is a flawed democracy. The Electoral College and the Senate make voters in less populous states far more influential than those in the more populous: <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/how-fair-is-the-electoral-college/">Wyoming residents have almost four times the voting power of Californians</a>. </p>
<p>Ever since the Civil War, however, reforms have sought to remedy other flaws, ensuring that citizenship’s full benefits, including the right to vote, were provided to formerly enslaved people, women and Native Americans; establishing the <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/369/186/">constitutional standard of one person, one vote</a>; and eliminating barriers to voting through the 1965 <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R43626/15">Voting Rights Act</a>. </p>
<p>But the Supreme Court has, in recent years, <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2012/12-96">narrowly construed the Voting Rights Act</a> and <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2018/18-422">limited courts’ ability to redress gerrymandering</a>, the drawing of voting districts to ensure one party wins. </p>
<p>The 2020 election revealed even more disturbing threats to democracy. As I explain in <a href="https://www.routledge.com/How-Autocrats-Seek-Power-Resistance-to-Trump-and-Trumpism/Abel/p/book/9781032625843">my book</a>, “How Autocrats Seek Power,” Donald Trump lost his reelection bid in 2020 but refused to accept the results. He tried every trick in the book – and then some – to alter the outcome of this bedrock exercise in democracy.</p>
<p>A recent New York Times story reports that when it comes to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/05/us/politics/trump-presidency-election-voters.html">Trump’s time in office and his attempt to overturn the 2020 election</a>, “voters often have a hazy recall of one of the most tumultuous periods in modern politics.” This, then, is a refresher about Trump’s handling of the election, both before and after Nov. 3, 2020.</p>
<p>Trump began with a classic autocrat’s strategy – casting doubt on elections in advance to lay the groundwork for challenging an unfavorable outcome.</p>
<p>Despite his efforts, Trump was unable to control or change the election results. And that was because of the work of others to stop him.</p>
<p>Here are four things Trump tried to do to flip the election in his favor – and examples of how he was stopped, both by individuals and democratic institutions.</p>
<p><strong>Anticipating defeat</strong> </p>
<p>Expecting to lose in November 2020, in part because of his disastrous handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, <a href="https://time.com/5514115/trump-rampant-voter-fraud-texas/">Trump proclaimed that</a> “all over the country, especially in California, voter fraud is rampant.” He called <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/20/us/politics/trump-michigan-vote-by-mail.html">mail ballots “a very dangerous thing</a>.” Jared Kushner, his son-in-law and aide, declined to “commit one way or the other” about whether the election would be held in November, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/13/jared-kushner-election-delay-coronavirus/">because of the COVID pandemic</a>. No efforts to postpone the election ensued.</p>
<p>Trump warned that Russia and China would “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/26/us/politics/mail-in-voting-foreign-intervention.html">be able to forge ballots</a>,” <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/08/26/trumps-corruption-election-just-took-hit-theres-still-problem/">a myth echoed by Attorney General William Barr</a>. Trump illegally threatened to have <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/20/politics/trump-election-day-sheriffs/index.html">law enforcement officers at polling places</a>. He falsely asserted that Kamala Harris “doesn’t meet the requirements” for serving as vice president <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/03/us/politics/trump-2020-election.html?searchResultPosition=3">because her parents were immigrants</a>. Asked if he would agree to a transition if he lost, he responded: “There won’t be a transfer, frankly. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/us/politics/trump-power-transfer-2020-election.html">There’ll be a continuation</a>.” </p>
<p><strong>Threatening litigation</strong></p>
<p>Aware that polls showed Biden ahead by 8 percentage points, Trump declared, “As soon as that election is over, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/02/trump-lawyers-election-biden-pennsylvania/">we’re going in with our lawyers</a>,” and they did just that. Adviser Steve Bannon correctly predicted that on Election Night, “Trump’s gonna walk into the Oval (Office), tweet out, ‘I’m the winner. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/14/steve-bannon-leaked-audio-trump-jan-6-investigation/">Game over, suck on that</a>.’” </p>
<p>Trump followed the script, asserting at 2:30 am: “we did win this election. … <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/07/13/book-excerpt-i-alone-can-fix-it/">This is a major fraud in our nation</a>,” though the actual results weren’t clear until days later, when, on Nov. 7, the networks declared Biden had won.</p>
<p>Although many advisers said he had lost, Trump kept claiming fraud, repeating Rudy Giuliani’s false allegation that Dominion election machines had switched votes – <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/us/politics/trump-jan-6-criminal-case.html;%20https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/15/us/politics/trump-meadows-republicans-congress-jan-6.html;%20https://apnews.com/article/fox-news-dominion-lawsuit-trial-trump-2020-0ac71f75acfacc52ea80b3e747fb0afe">a lie for which Fox News agreed to pay $787 million</a> to settle the defamation case brought by Dominion.</p>
<p><strong>Taking direct action</strong></p>
<p>Trump allies pressured state legislators to create false, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/06/06/fake-trump-electors-ga-told-shroud-plans-secrecy-email-shows/">“alternative” slates of electors</a> as a key strategy for overturning the election. Trump contemplated declaring an emergency, ordering the military to seize voting machines and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-justice-department-overturn-election/2021/01/22/b7f0b9fa-5d1c-11eb-a976-bad6431e03e2_story.html">replacing the attorney general with a yes-man</a> who would pressure state legislatures to change their electoral votes. </p>
<p><strong>Encouraging violence</strong></p>
<p>Trump summoned supporters to protest the Jan. 6 certification by Congress, boasted it would be “wild,” and encouraged them to march on the Capitol and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2020/11/14/million-maga-march-dc-protests/">“fight like hell,” promising to accompany them</a>. Once they had attacked the Capitol, he delayed for four hours before asking them to stop.</p>
<p>Yet Trump’s efforts to overturn the election failed. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large crowd of people with someone holding a sign that says 'Trump won the legal vote!'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Thousands of Trump supporters, fueled by his spurious claims of voter fraud, flooded the nation’s capital on Jan. 6, 2021, protesting Congress’ expected certification of Joe Biden’s White House victory.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/crowds-of-people-gather-as-us-president-donald-trump-speaks-news-photo/1230451810?adppopup=true">Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Resisting Trump</h2>
<p>Trump claimed that voting by mail produced rampant fraud, but state legislatures let <a href="https://apnews.com/article/health-elections-coronavirus-pandemic-election-2020-campaign-2016-f6b627a5576014a55a7252e542e46508">voters vote by mail or in drop boxes</a> because of the pandemic. Postal Service workers delivered those ballots despite actions taken by Trump’s postmaster general, Louis DeJoy, that made processing and delivery more difficult.</p>
<p><a href="https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-election-2020-ap-top-news-politics-us-news-dc647214b5fc91cc29e776d8f4a4accf">DeJoy denied any sabotage</a> in testimony before Congress. </p>
<p>Most state election officials, regardless of party, loyally did their jobs, resisting Trump’s pressure to falsify the outcome. Courts rejected all but one of <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2021/01/06/trumps-failed-efforts-overturn-election-numbers/4130307001/">Trump’s 62 lawsuits aimed at overturning the election</a>. Government lawyers refused to invoke the Insurrection Act and authorize the military to seize voting machines. The <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/12/19/trump-reportedly-asked-advisors-about-deploying-military-to-overturn-election/?sh=486535eece2b">military remained scrupulously apolitical</a>. And Vice President Mike Pence presided over the certification, in which 43 Republican senators and 75 Republican representatives joined all the Democrats to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-justice-department-overturn-election/2021/01/22/b7f0b9fa-5d1c-11eb-a976-bad6431e03e2_story.html">declare Biden the winner</a>.</p>
<p>That experience contains invaluable lessons about what to expect in 2024 and how to defend the integrity of elections.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222215/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard L. Abel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Donald Trump tried to overturn the 2020 election results. But the work of others, from lawmakers to judges to regular citizens, stopped him. There are cautionary lessons in that for the 2024 election.Richard L. Abel, Michael J. Connell Distinguished Professor of Law Emeritus, University of California, Los AngelesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2196872024-03-14T12:43:43Z2024-03-14T12:43:43ZCity mouse or country mouse? I collect mice from Philly homes to study how they got so good at urban living<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576250/original/file-20240216-24-90lbyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">European colonizers brought mice to the Americas, where they squeaked out a comfortable life.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/mouse-peeking-out-of-the-hole-royalty-free-image/525023427">Dejan Kolar/iStock Collection via Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Dusty barns, gleaming stables and damp basements. These are all places where you might find a house mouse – or a member of my research team. </p>
<p>I’m an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=DMxMLmwAAAAJ&hl=en">evolutionary biologist</a>, and my lab at Drexel University studies wild house mice. With help from Philly residents, we are collecting mice from high-rises and row homes to learn more about the impacts of city living on house mice. In short, we want to know whether there is any scientific basis to <a href="https://sites.pitt.edu/%7Edash/type0112.html#aesop">“The Town Mouse and the Country Mouse” fable</a> in which the cousins eat differently based on where they live.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/07/26/1190071137/its-hot-out-there-a-new-analysis-shows-its-much-worse-if-youre-in-a-city">Cities are hotter</a> and they have a lot of people living in high densities, which means more trash and usually more pollution. This can affect how <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1126/science.aam8327">species that live in cities evolve</a>. Cities are also dominated by artificial habitats such as sidewalks, high-rises and subways rather than open fields and forests. </p>
<p>We are interested in many possible changes, but especially in whether the many differences between urban and rural environments translate into genetic differences between city mice and country mice, such as which versions of genes related to metabolism are more common. </p>
<p>To find the answers, we sequence the mice’s genomes. With that data, we can answer a variety of questions, such as: Are city mice more or less genetically diverse than country mice? Are there regions of DNA, the molecule that encodes genetic information, that are consistently different between urban and rural mice? If so, what are the functions of genes in those regions? </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579697/original/file-20240304-16-fd7au7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An illustration of two mice from a translation of Aesop's Fables published in 1912." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579697/original/file-20240304-16-fd7au7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579697/original/file-20240304-16-fd7au7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579697/original/file-20240304-16-fd7au7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579697/original/file-20240304-16-fd7au7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579697/original/file-20240304-16-fd7au7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579697/original/file-20240304-16-fd7au7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579697/original/file-20240304-16-fd7au7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Just how different are city mice and country mice? Researchers are studying their guts and genes to find out.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Rackham_town_mouse_and_country_mouse.jpg">Arthur Rackham, public domain via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why study house mice?</h2>
<p>One reason we study house mice is because they are so widespread. European colonizers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/g3journal/jkac332">brought house mice to the Americas</a> around 500 years ago. The rodents have now spread into many different climates and habitats across North and South America in most places that humans live, including Philadelphia. </p>
<p>Though small in size, house mice have made immeasurable <a href="https://shop.elsevier.com/books/the-mouse-in-biomedical-research/fox/978-0-12-369456-0">contributions to genetics and medicine</a>. They are mammals like humans, but house mice reproduce quickly and are relatively easy to breed and maintain. In fact, part of why scientists adopted mice early on as a model system is because people were already breeding “<a href="https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.05959">fancy mice</a>” as pets. As a result, methods for keeping and breeding them were known.</p>
<p>Mice have many visible traits for geneticists to study. My team wants to know more about the genes and traits that have contributed to their ability to thrive in a variety of environments. The work we do with wild house mice also feeds back into work with laboratory mice and biomedical research. The house mice found in attics and cabinets are the same species that are studied in labs, but they are <a href="http://doi.org/10.1038/ng.847">more genetically diverse</a> than laboratory strains. Our project will generate whole genome sequences from many wild mice, and that data can help scientists who study traits and diseases. </p>
<h2>Tips for catching mice</h2>
<p>I previously worked on a large project studying <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgen.1007672">how house mice have adapted to different climates</a> in the Americas. For that project, I went to many, many farms throughout the eastern United States and became very good at catching mice in barns. </p>
<p>Starting this project with a focus on cities was a new challenge. First, our team had to find Philly residents who wanted us to trap their mice. We spent a lot of time spreading the word on social media, talking to friends and posting flyers. </p>
<p>We talked to many Philadelphians who were frustrated with trying to rid their homes of mice. Some had videos of house mice avoiding the traps they had set or stealing the bait and running away. We share this frustration and feel it keenly. In some cases, it took us many days to catch a single mouse in an apartment.</p>
<p>Part of the reason is because many Philadelphia houses are old. This means they are often full of character – and holes that give mice great places to hide. Luring the mice out of their nests and into our traps is difficult. We had the most success with peanut butter bait, which has a strong and very appealing odor for mice. But mice are omnivores, eating a diverse diet that includes insects. We have heard many stories from community members who used bait such as chocolate, cereal, cookies and even bacon bits. </p>
<h2>What’s next</h2>
<p>We hope to start sharing results over the next two years. We are working in three cities – Philadelphia, New York City and Richmond, Virginia – and have completed our first collections. Now we need to generate and analyze genetic data, so we are very busy in the lab. </p>
<p>We are extracting DNA, as well as another form of genetic material called RNA, from different tissues. With the DNA we will study how much genetic variation exists within city mouse populations, and whether there are genetic differences between urban and rural mice. The RNA will help us understand how differences in DNA translate into differences in metabolism, physiology and other cellular processes. </p>
<p>We will also look to see whether there are differences in traits. For example, we will measure their skulls and skeletons. We will sequence the DNA of the microbes in their digestive system to learn about their gut microbiomes, the collection of bacteria that live in their digestive system, and use <a href="https://www.futurelearn.com/info/courses/archaeology/0/steps/15267">stable isotope analysis</a> to identify any differences in their diets. Stable isotope analysis of diet uses the ratios of naturally occurring atoms of elements such as carbon and nitrogen to determine what types of food an organism has eaten.</p>
<p>Cities are full of wildlife. Learning about how cities shape the evolution of mice may help us find better ways to manage mouse populations and other urban wildlife while also better understanding evolution.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219687/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Megan Phifer-Rixey receives funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF CAREER 2332998 Division of Environmental Biology).
</span></em></p>An evolutionary biologist is studying what these resilient urban pests can teach us about adaptation and evolution.Megan Phifer-Rixey, Assistant Professor of Biology, Drexel UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2229442024-03-14T12:43:02Z2024-03-14T12:43:02ZProteins in milk and blood could one day let doctors detect breast cancer earlier – and save lives<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581419/original/file-20240312-28-8qcsls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=18%2C91%2C5398%2C3982&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">What if a simple blood test could diagnose otherwise undetected breast cancer?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/vascular-testing-in-research-laboratories-royalty-free-image/1443155227">Srinophan69/Moment via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Doctors may someday be able to use bodily fluids to noninvasively detect breast cancer in patients earlier than is possible now.</p>
<p>Breast cancer is the <a href="https://doi.org/10.3322/caac.21763">most commonly diagnosed cancer among women</a> in the U.S. and is currently one of the leading <a href="https://www.cancer.org/cancer/risk-prevention/understanding-cancer-risk/cancer-facts/cancer-facts-for-women.html">causes of cancer deaths</a>. Earlier diagnosis and treatment <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/cncr.32887">lead to better prognoses</a> for breast cancer patients. But mammograms have proved to be <a href="https://www.cancer.org/cancer/types/breast-cancer/screening-tests-and-early-detection/mammograms/limitations-of-mammograms.html">less effective for those under age 40</a>, as their breast tissue is denser and screening and biopsies can be unpleasant to endure.</p>
<p><iframe id="Nf0up" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Nf0up/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>In breast milk and blood serum, researchers, including <a href="https://people.clarkson.edu/%7Ecdarie/">those in my lab group</a>, have identified proteins that are involved in tumor development. Eventually, biochemists like my colleagues <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=GH2M7ZEAAAAJ&hl=en">and I</a> hope we can use these cancer-related proteins to create a <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/proteomes10040036">biomarker panel</a> that physicians can use to detect breast cancer earlier, therefore aiding in diagnosis and treatment.</p>
<h2>Proteins as biomarkers for what’s happening</h2>
<p>Researchers can analyze the proteins present in a variety of tissues, from biopsies of tumors to biological fluids including blood, saliva, urine, tears or breast milk. This technique is an example of studying a sample’s proteome – all the proteins in a particular cell, organism or species. The field is called <a href="https://doi.org/10.4331/wjbc.v12.i5.57">proteomics</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S1672-0229(07)60018-7">Proteomics can be a powerful tool</a> when researchers compare the proteomes of individuals from different groups, such as in blood from healthy people versus those with breast cancer. This kind of case-control comparison can identify a single protein or a group of proteins and their variants that are specific to one condition.</p>
<p>That’s what my colleagues and I are looking for: proteins that are present only in the samples from people who have breast cancer. Scientists call them <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/biomarker">biomarkers</a> because they signal that a patient has a particular condition. Once our candidates are verified by large-scale clinical trials that include many patients, we hope that particular proteins can then be used to assess someone’s future risk of developing the disease.</p>
<p>Doctors can currently use <a href="https://doi.org/10.5493/wjem.v2.i5.86">biomarkers for breast cancer</a> to gauge a patient’s response to treatment. For instance, the molecules cancer antigen 15-3 (CA 15-3) and carcinoemybronic antigen (CEA) are elevated in breast cancer patients, so monitoring their levels can let physicians know whether treatment is working. </p>
<p>Inherited variants of the BRCA1/2 genes can increase the likelihood of developing cancer; they can act as biomarkers in screening for cancer risk. </p>
<p>None of these biomarkers aid in diagnosis of breast cancer, though.</p>
<p>Researchers prefer proteins as cancer biomarkers over the genetic materials DNA and RNA because proteins provide a snapshot of what is happening in a patient’s body at the time a sample is collected. DNA and RNA can tell you whether a certain gene is turned on or off, but not the active form of the protein it codes for or the relative abundance of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e13323">proteins</a>. Protein analysis can also reveal changes the protein has undergone and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S1672-0229(07)60018-7">protein-protein interactions</a> that can alter the way a protein functions.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581402/original/file-20240312-18-og1u88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="diagram showing nursing mother and breast milk bag, and a blood draw and test tube" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581402/original/file-20240312-18-og1u88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581402/original/file-20240312-18-og1u88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581402/original/file-20240312-18-og1u88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581402/original/file-20240312-18-og1u88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581402/original/file-20240312-18-og1u88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581402/original/file-20240312-18-og1u88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581402/original/file-20240312-18-og1u88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Looking for biomarker proteins in breast milk or blood serum could detect the presence or absence of cancer.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Danielle Whitham</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Benefits of milk and serum biomarkers</h2>
<p>Breast milk and blood serum are two bodily fluids that can be collected noninvasively and that give information about what is happening in the body when collected.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/elps.201700123">Breast milk contains</a> secreted proteins, immune cells and sloughed cells of the milk ducts. During lactation, the breast is actively working to create milk to feed an infant. Any abnormalities in the breast milk reflect the current situation in the body. Some proteins in breast milk also circulate throughout the body and can be found in blood serum as well.</p>
<p>Serum is the <a href="https://www.cancer.gov/publications/dictionaries/cancer-terms/def/serum">liquid part of the blood</a> after red blood cells have been removed. It contains all the same proteins found in the blood, minus the clotting factors, therefore allowing circulating protein levels to be monitored. Narrowing in on a serum-based biomarker would mean it could be used to screen every woman, not just one who is currently lactating.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/proteomes10040036">The proteins we’ve found</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/proteomes10040036">in breast milk and identified as being</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/elps.202300040">out of whack in breast cancer</a> are involved in the cancer cells’ ability to divide, multiply and spread throughout the body. They all promote disease progression.</p>
<p>My colleagues and I currently consider these breast milk proteins to be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14789450.2024.2320158">a draft biomarker for breast cancer</a>. Our group is currently working on using blood serum to identify proteins that could be involved with breast cancer. Moving from breast milk to blood serum would allow people of any age and reproductive status to be screened for the disease, rather than just those who are lactating.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222944/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Biochemistry and Proteomics Laboratories at Clarkson University receives funding from National Cancer Institute of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number R15CA260126.</span></em></p>Identifying proteins that are only present in bodily fluids when a patient has breast cancer could provide a way to screen healthy people for the disease.Danielle Whitham, Ph.D. Candidate in Chemistry and Biochemistry, Clarkson UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2248382024-03-14T12:42:48Z2024-03-14T12:42:48ZCOVID-19 vaccines: CDC says people ages 65 and up should get a shot this spring – a geriatrician explains why it’s vitally important<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580030/original/file-20240305-30-xa43f3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7951%2C5297&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Even if you got a COVID-19 shot last fall, the spring shot is still essential for the 65 and up age group.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/old-asian-senior-couple-wearing-face-mask-virus-royalty-free-image/1332149015?phrase=covid-19+shots+and+seniors&adppopup=true">whyframestudio/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In my mind, the spring season will always be associated with COVID-19. </p>
<p>In spring 2020, the federal government <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/03/18/2020-05794/declaring-a-national-emergency-concerning-the-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak">declared a nationwide emergency</a>, and life drastically changed. Schools and businesses closed, and masks and social distancing were mandated across much of the nation. </p>
<p>In spring 2021, after the vaccine rollout, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said those who were fully vaccinated against COVID-19 could <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/13/health/cdc-mask-guidance-vaccinated/index.html">safely gather with others who were vaccinated</a> without masks or social distancing.</p>
<p>In spring 2022, with the increased rates of vaccination across the U.S., the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/26/world/covid-19-mandates-cases-vaccine#hawaii-lifts-its-indoor-mask-mandate-and-travel-restrictions-the-last-state-to-do-so">universal indoor mask mandate</a> came to an end. </p>
<p>In spring 2023, the federal declaration of COVID-19 as a <a href="https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2023/05/09/fact-sheet-end-of-the-covid-19-public-health-emergency.html">public health emergency ended</a>.</p>
<p>Now, as spring 2024 fast approaches, the CDC reminds Americans that even though the public health emergency is over, the risks associated with COVID-19 are not. But those risks are higher in some groups than others. Therefore, the agency recommends that adults age 65 and older receive an <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/s-0228-covid.html">additional COVID-19 vaccine</a>, which is <a href="https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/updated-covid-vaccine-10-things-to-know">updated to protect against a recently dominant variant</a> and is effective against the current dominant strain. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">You have a 54% less chance of being hospitalized with severe COVID-19 if you’ve had the vaccine.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Increased age means increased risk</h2>
<p>The shot is <a href="https://www.medicare.gov/coverage/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-vaccine">covered by Medicare</a>. But do you really need yet another COVID-19 shot?</p>
<p><a href="https://uvahealth.com/findadoctor/Laurie-Archbald-Pannone-1356544233">As a geriatrician</a> who exclusively cares for people over 65 years of age, this is a question I’ve been asked many times over the past few years.</p>
<p>In early 2024, the short answer is yes.</p>
<p>Compared with other age groups, <a href="https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-who-is-at-risk/art-20483301">older adults have the worst outcomes</a> with a COVID-19 infection. Increased age is, simply put, a <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/people-with-medical-conditions.html#">major risk factor</a>.</p>
<p>In January 2024, the average death rate from COVID-19 for all ages was <a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographicsovertime">just under 3 in 100,000 people</a>. But for those ages 65 to 74, <a href="https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/older-adults-made-90-us-covid-deaths-2023">it was higher</a> – about 5 for every 100,000. And for people 75 and older, the rate jumped to nearly 30 in 100,000. </p>
<p>Even now, four years after the start of the pandemic, people 65 years old and up are about twice as likely to die from COVID-19 than the rest of the population. People 75 years old and up are <a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographicsovertime">10 times more likely to die</a> from COVID-19. </p>
<h2>Vaccination is still essential</h2>
<p>These numbers are scary. But the No. 1 action people can take to decrease their risk <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0301-respiratory-virus.html">is to get vaccinated</a> and keep up to date on vaccinations to ensure top immune response. Being appropriately vaccinated is as critical in 2024 as it was in 2021 to help prevent infection, hospitalization and death from COVID-19. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/updated-covid-vaccine-10-things-to-know">updated COVID-19 vaccine</a> <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-events.html">has been shown to be safe and effective</a>, with the benefits of vaccination continuing to <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm">outweigh the potential risks of infection</a>. </p>
<p>The CDC has been observing side effects on the more than 230 million Americans <a href="https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-states/">who are considered fully vaccinated</a> with what it calls the “<a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/reporting-systems.html#">most intense safety monitoring in U.S. history</a>.” Common side effects <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/expect.html">soon after receiving the vaccine</a> include discomfort at the injection site, transient muscle or joint aches, and fever. </p>
<p>These symptoms can be alleviated with over-the-counter pain medicines or a cold compress to the site after receiving the vaccine. Side effects are less likely if you are well hydrated when you get your vaccine.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Getting vaccinated is at the top of the list of the new recommendations from the CDC.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Long COVID and your immune system</h2>
<p>Repeat infections carry increased risk, not just from the infection itself, but also for developing long COVID <a href="https://time.com/6553340/covid-19-reinfection-risk/">as well as other illnesses</a>. Recent evidence shows that even mild to moderate COVID-19 infection can negatively affect cognition, with changes similar to seven years of brain aging. But being up to date with COVID-19 immunization has a <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/vaccination-dramatically-lowers-long-covid-risk/">fourfold decrease in risk of developing long COVID symptoms</a> if you do get infected. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mounting-research-shows-that-covid-19-leaves-its-mark-on-the-brain-including-with-significant-drops-in-iq-scores-224216">Mounting research shows that COVID-19 leaves its mark on the brain, including with significant drops in IQ scores</a>
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<p>Known as <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fragi.2022.900028">immunosenescence</a>, this puts people at higher risk of infection, including severe infection, and decreased ability to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.it.2020.11.002">maintain immune response to vaccination </a> as they get older. The older one gets – over 75, or over 65 with other medical conditions – the more immunosenescence takes effect. </p>
<p>All this is why, if you’re in this age group, even if you received your last COVID-19 vaccine in fall 2023, the spring 2024 shot is still essential to boost your immune system so it can act quickly if you are exposed to the virus. </p>
<p>The bottom line: If you’re 65 or older, it’s time for another COVID-19 shot.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224838/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laurie Archbald-Pannone receives funding from PRIME, Accredited provider of medical and professional education; supported by an independent educational grant from GlaxoSmithKline, LLC as Course Director "Advancing Patient Engagement to Protect Aging Adults from Vaccine-Preventable Diseases: An Implementation Science Initiative to Activate and Sustain Participation in Recommended Vaccinations”</span></em></p>As you get older, you’re at higher risk of severe infection and your immunity declines faster after vaccination.Laurie Archbald-Pannone, Associate Professor of Medicine and Geriatrics, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2256102024-03-14T12:42:30Z2024-03-14T12:42:30ZWendy’s ‘surge pricing’ mess looks like a case study in stakeholder conflict<p>Just two words created a publicity nightmare for fast-food giant Wendy’s: <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-dynamic-pricing-an-operations-management-scholar-explains-188265">dynamic pricing</a>.</p>
<p>In late February 2024, news broke that the chain was considering charging different prices at different times of day — a tactic usually associated with airlines and ride-hailing companies. As headlines like “<a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/wendys-roll-uber-style-surge-pricing-menu-prices-fluctuating-based-demand">Wendy’s to roll out Uber-style surge-pricing</a>” flooded the news, #BoycottWendys trended on social media. Wendy’s rival Burger King quickly took advantage of the news with a “<a href="https://www.bk.com/terms">No urge to surge</a>” promotion.</p>
<p>The backlash put Wendy’s on the defensive.</p>
<p>Within days, Wendy’s said that <a href="https://www.wendys.com/blog/wendys-digital-news-update">it never intended to raise prices</a> at times of peak demand, Instead, it only intended to lower prices when store traffic was slow. It also announced a monthlong $1 burger deal that observers were <a href="https://www.foodandwine.com/wendys-march-madness-burger-deals-8604311">quick to connect</a> to the pricing fiasco. </p>
<p>It looked like a classic PR disaster – and as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=N1Fxik0AAAAJ&hl=en">professor of marketing</a>, I couldn’t turn away. How did this all go wrong?</p>
<h2>Divergent stakeholder interests, with a side of fries</h2>
<p>I suspect this burger brouhaha came down to a classic case of investors’ interests colliding with those of consumers.</p>
<p>The whole mess seems to have started on Feb. 15, 2024, when Wendy’s <a href="https://www.irwendys.com/news/news-details/2024/THE-WENDYS-COMPANY-REPORTS-FOURTH-QUARTER-AND-FULL-YEAR-2023-RESULTS/default.aspx">released its fourth-quarter earnings</a> and held a <a href="https://www.irwendys.com/events-and-presentations/event-details/2024/Preliminary-Date-Q4-2023-The-Wendys-Company-Earnings-2024-uusGd41PbC/default.aspx">conference call with investors</a>. </p>
<p>That day, Wendy’s announced a multimillion-dollar investment to roll out digital menu boards across all its U.S. stores. This investment would support “dynamic pricing and menu offerings,” according to a slide from the conference call. While presenting the slides, Wendy’s chief executive officer <a href="https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/02/15/wendys-wen-q4-2023-earnings-call-transcript/">said</a>, “Beginning as early as 2025, we will begin testing more enhanced features like dynamic pricing and day-part offerings along with AI-enabled dynamic pricing menu changes and suggestive selling.”</p>
<p>While some people argue that Wendy’s may have never meant to hike prices at all, I’m skeptical. Of course there’s nothing wrong with raising prices – companies would go out of business if they didn’t. The issue is how to frame the price hike. For example, Starbucks increased prices <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/starbucks-prices-inflation/">three times</a> in just four months between October 2021 and February 2022. It blamed the hikes on inflation and didn’t face much of a backlash.</p>
<p>But no matter how you frame it, raising prices is a company action that benefits investors but not consumers. And while the dining public has been outraged by the whole affair, Wendy’s investors seem relatively unconcerned. Wendy’s stock price has remained <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WEN/history">relatively stable</a> since Feb. 26, when the media picked up the story and boycott calls commenced.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">It’s a bad sign when your company’s pricing controversy makes it onto “Good Morning America.”</span></figcaption>
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<p>This asymmetry makes sense and is well documented in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijresmar.2018.06.001">academic research</a>. On average, investors are motivated by a company’s profits. Moves to raise revenue, such as hiking prices, make them happy. That’s why companies often announce those increases well before they put them into effect – not for the customers’ sake, but <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijresmar.2018.06.001">for the investors’</a>.</p>
<p>Of course, higher prices feel different if you’re the one paying them. And consumers tend to believe sellers aren’t being fair when they set prices: They think sale prices are set much <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/346244">higher than fair prices</a>, underestimate <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0092070304269953">the impact of inflation</a>, overattribute the cause of price increase to profit-seeking, and fail to consider company costs. Their backlash is both <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/346244">economically rational and predictable</a>.</p>
<p>What also makes sense is Burger King trying to act like a typical rival – aiming to benefit from the backlash Wendy’s received.</p>
<h2>A needless food fight</h2>
<p>In my opinion, Wendy’s early announcement of its dynamic pricing was a serious mistake. Remember that its CEO said that Wendy’s would introduce dynamic pricing “as early as 2025.” That means it announced the news at least nine months before customers needed to hear about it. I assume Wendy’s did this because it wanted to impress its shareholders and boost its stock price.</p>
<p>In fact, the cynic in me wonders whether this incident was “staged” – that is, Wendy’s was testing the waters to see whether they could preannounce the price hike to impress shareholders, and then not actually implement the changes. </p>
<p>Indeed, research has shown that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijresmar.2018.06.001">companies often preannounce price increases</a> a few days to several months in advance, and may withdraw some of these preannouncements if they realize that the price hike may cause more damage than increase in revenue.</p>
<p>But either way, announcing a decision nine months in advance seems premature. And I haven’t seen any evidence that Wendy’s planned for customers to hear the news along with investors.</p>
<p>My advice is for executives to be astute in communicating price increases so consumers take the company’s perspective and don’t <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0092070304269953">view the hike as unfair</a>. That may mean avoiding terms that elicit hostile reactions, or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijresmar.2018.06.001">providing explanations</a> for their decisions, such as an increase in the cost of ingredients or employee salaries. Consumers who understand the reasons for a price hike may be more accommodating.</p>
<p>Interestingly, even after the Wendy’s wobble, other restaurants are reportedly <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/hospitality/surge-pricing-is-coming-to-more-menus-near-you-66a245f3">considering increasing menu prices</a> during hours of high demand. I hope they learn from Wendy’s error and frame their price increases strategically.</p>
<p>Otherwise, they shouldn’t be surprised when competitors eat their lunch.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225610/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vivek Astvansh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Sometimes, good news for investors is bad for consumers.Vivek Astvansh, Associate Professor of Quantitative Marketing and Analytics, McGill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2244962024-03-14T12:42:05Z2024-03-14T12:42:05ZEmployees have a right to express support for Black Lives Matter while they’re on the job, according to a historic labor board decision<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581413/original/file-20240312-24-pix1iz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=149%2C183%2C4387%2C2788&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The aftershocks of George Floyd's death are still reverberating for Home Depot.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/mourners-in-home-depot-aprons-wait-to-view-the-casket-of-news-photo/1218632854?adppopup=true">Godofredo A. Vásquez-Pool/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://www.nlrb.gov/news-outreach/news-story/board-rules-employees-black-lives-matter-action-at-home-depot-was">Home Depot store violated labor law</a> when it disciplined Antonio Morales, the National Labor Relations Board ruled on Feb. 21, 2024.</p>
<p>Morales, a Home Depot employee in the Minneapolis area, had drawn the letters BLM on a work apron and refused to remove them. BLM stands for the <a href="https://www.loc.gov/item/lcwaN0016241/">Black Lives Matter movement</a>, which campaigns against violence and systemic racism aimed at Black people. Morales ultimately quit because of pressure to end the use of BLM messaging.</p>
<p>The NLRB has now <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/21/business/home-depot-blm-nlrb-ruling.html">ordered Home Depot to rehire Morales</a> based on the legal right U.S. employees have to engage in “<a href="https://www.nlrb.gov/about-nlrb/rights-we-protect/your-rights/employee-rights">concerted activity</a>” for the purpose of “mutual aid or protection.”</p>
<p>As a legal scholar who has <a href="https://law.tamu.edu/faculty-staff/find-people/faculty-profiles/michael-z-green">studied issues of race in the workplace</a> for more than 20 years, I believe the Home Depot decision establishes an important precedent for workers who express broad concerns about systemic racism.</p>
<p>This decision indicates that employees have a right to demonstrate their support for the Black Lives Matter movement on the job if they are seeking to improve their own working conditions with respect to racial discrimination. And this right persists even if the messaging arguably has political connotations that some workers or customers might disagree with. </p>
<h2>Right to display slogans</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nlrb.gov/about-nlrb/who-we-are">National Labor Relations Board</a> is the federal agency that conducts elections when employees seek to be represented by a union. It also prosecutes and adjudicates complaints filed against employers and unions based upon unfair labor practices as defined by the <a href="https://www.nlrb.gov/guidance/key-reference-materials/national-labor-relations-act">National Labor Relations Act</a>. </p>
<p>Workers have the right to display slogans related to working conditions when they’re on the job under <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/29/157">Section 7 of that law</a>, which was enacted in 1935. Section 7 “protects the rights of employees to wear and distribute items such as buttons, pins, stickers, t-shirts, flyers, or other items displaying a message relating to terms and conditions of employment, unionization, and other protected matters.”</p>
<p>In this <a href="https://apps.nlrb.gov/link/document.aspx/09031d4583c6ebac">Home Depot case</a>, the NLRB reviewed a preliminary decision issued in 2022 by <a href="https://apps.nlrb.gov/link/document.aspx/09031d45837af63d">Paul Bogas</a>, an NLRB administrative law judge. Bogas found that Home Depot’s ban on manifestations of support for the Black Lives Matter movement didn’t violate labor law.</p>
<p>The NLRB disagreed with the decision by Bogas in a 3-1 decision that cited a <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1977/77-453">1978 Supreme Court precedent</a>.</p>
<p>In that case, Eastex Inc. v. National Labor Relations Board, the court found that workers distributing materials related to their terms and conditions of employment are protected by Section 7 when there is a reasonable and direct connection to the advancement of mutual aid and protection in the workplace.</p>
<p>That ruling held that this protection exists even when political messages may be involved in the workers’ communications. “Moreover, what may be viewed as political in one context can be viewed quite differently in another,” the Supreme Court held.</p>
<p>At the Home Depot in question, Morales and other employees had previously discussed concerns about racial misconduct by a supervisor and two separate incidents of destroying a display of Black History Month materials the workers had created to celebrate Black culture.</p>
<p>Employees had a right to express their support for BLM messaging in the workplace because they had already objected to working conditions based upon racial concerns, the NLRB’s majority ruled.</p>
<p>One of the NLRB’s four members, <a href="https://www.nlrb.gov/bio/marvin-e-kaplan">Marvin Kaplan</a>, <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/3135/Board_Decision-HOME_DEPOT_USA.pdf?1710272577">dissented, in part, from the majority</a> based on his different view about the purpose of Morales’ display of the BLM messaging. Morales was expressing support for the Black Lives Matter movement’s “goal of combating police violence against Black individuals – not with improving terms and conditions of employment,” Kaplan wrote.</p>
<h2>Discussing racial justice at work</h2>
<p>Morales’ show of support for the Black Lives Matter movement in the workplace was hardly an outlier.</p>
<p>Many Black Americans began to <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/06/17/george-floyd-protests-black-lives-matter-employees-corporate-america-racism/3195685001/">speak out about racism and discrimination</a> by discussing BLM in their workplaces amid the widespread protests that followed <a href="https://theconversation.com/pain-of-police-killings-ripples-outward-to-traumatize-black-people-and-communities-across-us-159624">George Floyd’s murder by police officers on May 25, 2020</a>, in Minneapolis.</p>
<p>A year after Floyd was killed, a poll found that 68% of Americans thought that employees “<a href="https://www.paradigmiq.com/blog/nearly-7-in-10-americans-think-racial-injustice-is-problem-and-believe-they-should-be-able-to-talk-about-it-at-work/">should be able to discuss racial justice issues at work</a>.”</p>
<p>Employees who wanted to show their support for BLM at work have in recent years met resistance from other employers besides Home Depot, <a href="https://www.hrdive.com/news/diversity-inclusion-grocery/627933/">including the Publix</a> and <a href="https://www.kuow.org/stories/grocery-store-workers-union-wins-case-for-black-lives-matter-buttons">Fred Meyer supermarket chains</a>.</p>
<p>Some companies have said their bans on workers displaying BLM insignia were intended to <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/business/local-business/black-lives-matter-logos-in-the-workplace-divide-employers-workers-and-customers/">prevent disruptive responses</a> by other workers and customers who may not agree with the movement’s message. </p>
<h2>Mixed decisions</h2>
<p>Legal decisions about this issue have been mixed so far.</p>
<p>A court found that <a href="https://casetext.com/case/amalgamated-transit-union-local-85-v-port-auth-of-allegheny-cnty-2">a Pennsylvania government agency violated the First Amendment</a> when it prohibited workers from wearing face masks emblazoned with BLM messaging during the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/21/business/whole-foods-black-lives-matter.html">Whole Foods has prevailed against workers</a> in similar cases. An <a href="https://www.aseonline.org/News-Events/ASE-News/Press-Releases/nlrb-board-overrules-its-administrative-judges-to-hold-in-favor-of-over-riding-dress-rules-for-worker-blm-wear">NLRB administrative law judge</a> found that its employees had worn BLM insignia merely as a political statement <a href="https://www.shrm.org/topics-tools/employment-law-compliance/court-dismisses-claims-whole-foods-black-lives-matter-masks">unrelated to their working conditions</a>.</p>
<p>That preliminary decision is now in question after the NLRB’s final ruling about the same issue in the Home Depot dispute.</p>
<p>Whole Foods workers asserted in a separate legal challenge that their employer’s ban on wearing BLM insignia <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/appeals-court-rejects-whole-foods-workers-discrimination-claim-dress-code-crackdown-blm-protests">represented racial discrimination under federal law</a>. In that case, the court found that the employees had failed to prove that the ban had a racial motivation.</p>
<p>Whole Foods was instead seeking to stop expression of a “politically charged” and “controversial message by employees in its stores,” according to the court.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581411/original/file-20240312-18-s5qhb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People stand in front of a Whole Foods with painted signs depicting a woman in a Black Lives Matter face mask and another one with a Black person's face without a mask." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581411/original/file-20240312-18-s5qhb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581411/original/file-20240312-18-s5qhb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581411/original/file-20240312-18-s5qhb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581411/original/file-20240312-18-s5qhb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581411/original/file-20240312-18-s5qhb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581411/original/file-20240312-18-s5qhb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581411/original/file-20240312-18-s5qhb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Whole Foods employees who were dismissed from their shift for wearing Black Lives Matter face masks conduct a protest in 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/adam-hermon-left-and-abdulai-barry-stand-in-front-of-whole-news-photo/1227707669?adppopup=true">Erin Clark/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One interesting aspect of these cases is the apparent contradictions involved.</p>
<p>After Floyd’s death, many <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/corporate-america-weighs-protests-racism-companies-struggle-diverse/story?id=71077049">big companies proclaimed their commitment to fight racism</a> and promised to do a better job of supporting diversity, equity and inclusion efforts. </p>
<p><a href="https://corporate.homedepot.com/news/diversity-equity-inclusion/message-craig-menear-racial-equality-justice-all">Home Depot</a>, for example, expressed its “anguish over the senseless killing of George Floyd” and “other unarmed Black men and women in our country.” The company explained how it had established worker programs “to facilitate internal town halls to share experiences and create better understanding.” </p>
<p>Amazon, which owns Whole Foods, <a href="https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/policy-news-views/amazon-donates-10-million-to-organizations-supporting-justice-and-equity">made a similar statement</a>, along with a pledge to donate US$10 million to “organizations that are working to bring about social justice and improve the lives of Black and African Americans.”</p>
<h2>Possible aftermath</h2>
<p>To be sure, this NLRB decision isn’t the final word on this issue, because <a href="https://apps.nlrb.gov/link/document.aspx/09031d4583c8e109">Home Depot has filed an appeal</a>.</p>
<p>Regardless of how the courts respond, the NLRB’s decision is historic. The labor panel has established that a worker’s support for Black Lives Matter in the workplace isn’t merely an expression of their political beliefs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224496/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Z. Green does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Racism can be a workplace issue, even at Home Depot.Michael Z. Green, Professor of Law and Director, Workplace Law Program, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2257352024-03-13T18:03:30Z2024-03-13T18:03:30ZJudge nixes some of Georgia’s charges against Trump and his allies − but that won’t necessarily derail the case<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581713/original/file-20240313-16-atpi0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=50%2C21%2C4804%2C3210&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump continues to face criminal charges in Georgia, even though some have been dismissed by a judge.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024TrumpInsurrectionAmendment/d86f97b40fdc4d09ba8a4815b47d50f7/photo">AP Photo/Steve Helber</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>A Fulton County judge <a href="https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24478988/trump_specialdemurrers_31324.pdf">has tossed out six of the 41 state charges</a> against Donald Trump and his allies in Georgia’s expansive election interference case against the former president and others.</em></p>
<p><em>Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee issued a ruling on March 13, 2024, that focused on charges related to allegations that Trump and other defendants tried to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/13/us/donald-trump-charges-quashed-georgia-mcafee.html">get state officials to break the law</a> and decertify the 2020 election results.</em></p>
<p><em>The ruling doesn’t mean that the entire case is derailed, explains Georgia election and legal scholar <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=AI_UyLUAAAAJ&hl=en">Anthony Michael Kreis</a>. It’s a focused and technical ruling that says Georgia District Attorney Fani T. Willis has not specified which exact law the defendants are allegedly violating in some instances.</em> </p>
<p><em>It also doesn’t have anything to do with the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/03/13/fani-willis-disqualification-impact-trump-georgia-case/">defense effort to disqualify Willis</a> from the Trump case because of her romantic relationship with another prosecutor. An Atlanta-area judge is expected to soon rule on this issue.</em> </p>
<p><em>Politics and society editor Amy Lieberman spoke with Kreis to better understand what’s behind this ruling and its implications for Georgia’s case against Trump and his allies.</em> </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581701/original/file-20240313-22-fhr3r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a black robe sits behind a desk, flanked by the U.S. flag and the Georgia state flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581701/original/file-20240313-22-fhr3r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581701/original/file-20240313-22-fhr3r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581701/original/file-20240313-22-fhr3r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581701/original/file-20240313-22-fhr3r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581701/original/file-20240313-22-fhr3r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581701/original/file-20240313-22-fhr3r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581701/original/file-20240313-22-fhr3r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee has been hearing motions in the criminal prosecution of Donald Trump for election interference in the wake of the 2020 presidential election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/judge-scott-mcafee-presides-during-a-hearing-in-the-case-of-news-photo/2001155374">Alyssa Pointer-Pool/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>What just happened with this ruling?</strong></p>
<p>Essentially what we have here is a response to a legal motion on behalf of a number of defendants, including Trump. In that motion, Trump and his co-defendants say that the state did not give enough detailed particulars about the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-state-georgia-appears-set-file-charges-against-donald-trump-court-document-2023-08-14/">crimes that the defendants have been charged</a> with and thus should be thrown out. </p>
<p>The set of charges revolve around the concept of a violation of an oath. That sprang up as a result of Trump’s <a href="https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/highlights-of-trump-s-call-with-the-georgia-secretary-of-state-1/b67c0d9dbde1a697/full.pdf">phone call with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger</a>, with Trump asking him to “find” 11,780 votes that would have given Trump a win in Georgia. The charges also related to some of the defendants’ testimony before the state General Assembly, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-giuliani-georgia-election-indictment-fulton-county-203b1e69cbff227a0bf8cc59a6bb645f">asking the Georgia Legislature to overturn</a> the election and appoint their own electors. </p>
<p>The charges were based on a theory that these defendants unlawfully asked state officials to violate their oath and their duty to the constitutions of the United States and the state of Georgia. What wasn’t clear is what provisions they allegedly tried to induce state officials to violate. </p>
<p>In his ruling, the judge is saying that the state needs to go back to the grand jury and provide details of exactly what aspects of the Constitution these defendants allegedly tried to get state officials to violate, so the defendants have the ability to defend against these charges. </p>
<p><strong>Is the judge saying there is not enough evidence to proceed with this case?</strong></p>
<p>No. He’s saying that the state has not sufficiently explained how the evidence relates to an oath. For example, we know <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-giuliani-georgia-election-indictment-fulton-county-203b1e69cbff227a0bf8cc59a6bb645f">Rudy Giuliani went to the Georgia General Assembly</a> with <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-you-need-to-know-about-john-eastmans-2020-election-charges">John Eastman and provided false information</a> in order to encourage these state officials to overturn the election. The theory is that violated both the federal and state constitutions. </p>
<p>But a prosecutor could make that claim in a number of different ways. Did they violate the Georgia Constitution’s right to vote; did they violate the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/equal_protection">equal protection clause</a> in the U.S. Constitution? Is it the right to vote that is spelled out in <a href="https://sos.ga.gov/sites/default/files/2022-02/state_constitution.pdf">Georgia’s state Constitution</a>? Or is there some other provision of federal or state law they violated? It’s just not clear. </p>
<p>The evidence supporting the charges is there. What is not there is the precise theory of the crime and the exact elements that support those indictments. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581702/original/file-20240313-18-9apse0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A close-up of a man in a suit and tie." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581702/original/file-20240313-18-9apse0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581702/original/file-20240313-18-9apse0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581702/original/file-20240313-18-9apse0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581702/original/file-20240313-18-9apse0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581702/original/file-20240313-18-9apse0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581702/original/file-20240313-18-9apse0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581702/original/file-20240313-18-9apse0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a key figure in the case against former President Donald Trump and his alleged efforts to influence the 2020 presidential election results in Georgia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/brad-raffensperger-georgias-secretary-of-state-attends-the-news-photo/2028789353">Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Did this decision surprise you?</strong></p>
<p>No. This charge is kind of a unique charge. It is not something that people have really heard of in this context, particularly when it comes to state legislators and presidential electors. We are in an area of legal theory that is unique and without precedent. The judge is saying because we are in this new sphere of legal theory, the state really needs to be specific about what it is they are trying to prove here and what the nature of the criminality is. </p>
<p>The charge of violating an oath is just not something we see in the state of Georgia. <a href="https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4152370-read-trump-indictment-georgia/">The charges have been drafted</a> in a very novel way, but they are responding to an unprecedented situation. We are in this kind of wild west of making law. And that is not necessarily a bad thing, but what it does require is a little greater attention to specifics. And the prosecutors have just not done that yet.</p>
<p><strong>Could this delay the trial against Trump and his allies in Georgia?</strong></p>
<p>Maybe. We will have to see. Willis can bring a new, more detailed indictment that is more in line with the state oath. I think if Willis brings another indictment on these charges, there probably won’t be a delay. </p>
<p>If she appeals this decision, rather than just seeking a new indictment, that might slow things down a little. </p>
<p><strong>Is this a sign that the case is being derailed?</strong> </p>
<p>No. The entire indictment, except the violation of oaths of office, still stands. This makes work for the district attorney but is not a fatal detail. Willis can go back to constitutional law experts in her working group and hone in on the theory of a constitutional violation. And she will have another bite at the apple.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225735/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Michael Kreis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A Georgia election law scholar explains what’s behind the ruling and what it means for the state’s prosecution of Trump.Anthony Michael Kreis, Assistant Professor of Law, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2222472024-03-13T12:45:24Z2024-03-13T12:45:24ZBuyouts can bring relief from medical debt, but they’re far from a cure<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577693/original/file-20240223-20-aiwmsy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C15%2C5145%2C3462&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Medical debt can have devastating consequences.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/stethscope-on-pile-of-us-banknotes-royalty-free-image/153349316">PhotoAlto/Odilon Dimier via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.kff.org/health-costs/press-release/1-in-10-adults-owe-medical-debt-with-millions-owing-more-than-10000/#:%7E:text=Americans%20Likely%20Owe%20Hundreds%20of,who%20owe%20more%20than%20%2410%2C000.">One in 10 Americans</a> carry medical debt, while <a href="https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2022/sep/state-us-health-insurance-2022-biennial-survey">2 in 5</a> are underinsured and at risk of not being able to pay their medical bills.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.31898">This burden</a> <a href="https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/podcast/2023/oct/how-medical-debt-makes-people-sicker-what-we-can-do-about-it">crushes millions</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2023.00604">of families</a> under mounting bills and contributes to the <a href="http://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.31898">widening gap</a> between rich and poor. </p>
<p>Some relief has come with a wave of debt buyouts by <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/03/10/local-communities-are-buying-medical-debt-for-pennies-on-the-dollar-and-freeing-american-families-from-the-threat-of-bankruptcy/">county and city governments</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/business-georgia-nonprofits-2a5c3afc4a646d489242bd99eb6652fc">charities</a> and even <a href="https://www.wmdt.com/2024/01/chick-fil-a-pays-medical-debt-on-delmarva/">fast-food restaurants</a> that pay pennies on the dollar to clear enormous balances. But as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=cGZVMkoAAAAJ&hl=en">health policy and economics researcher</a> who studies out-of-pocket medical expenses, I think these buyouts are only a partial solution.</p>
<h2>A quick fix that works</h2>
<p>Over the past 10 years, the nonprofit <a href="https://ripmedicaldebt.org/">RIP Medical Debt</a> has emerged as the leader in making buyouts happen, using <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/01/us/medical-debt-campaigns-give-back-trnd/index.html">crowdfunding campaigns</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/06/john-oliver-medical-debt-forgiveness-last-week-tonight">celebrity engagement</a>, and partnerships in the private and public sectors. It connects charitable buyers with hospitals and debt collection companies to arrange the sale and erasure of large bundles of debt. </p>
<p>The buyouts focus on low-income households and those with extreme debt burdens. You can’t sign up to have debt wiped away; you just get notified if you’re one of the lucky ones included in a bundle that’s bought off. In 2020, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services <a href="https://revcycleintelligence.com/news/hospitals-can-sell-patient-bad-debt-to-charitable-orgs-oig-says">reviewed this strategy</a> and determined it didn’t violate anti-kickback statutes, which reassured hospitals and collectors that they wouldn’t get in legal trouble partnering with RIP Medical Debt. </p>
<p>Buying a bundle of debt saddling low-income families can be a bargain. Hospitals and collection agencies are typically <a href="https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2023/09/21/buy-and-sell-medical-debt-health-care">willing to sell</a> the debt for <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/08/medical-bill-debt-collection/596914/">steep discounts</a>, even <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/03/10/local-communities-are-buying-medical-debt-for-pennies-on-the-dollar-and-freeing-american-families-from-the-threat-of-bankruptcy/">pennies on the dollar</a>. That’s a great return on investment for philanthropists looking to make a big social impact.</p>
<p>And it’s not just charities pitching in. <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2024/01/23/1225014618/nyc-joins-a-growing-wave-of-local-governments-erasing-residents-medical-debt">Local governments</a> across the country, from <a href="https://arpa.cookcountyil.gov/medical-debt-relief-initiative">Cook County, Illinois</a>, to <a href="https://www.axios.com/local/new-orleans/2023/05/23/new-orleans-medical-debt-forgiveness">New Orleans</a>, have been directing <a href="https://apnews.com/article/health-care-costs-boston-toledo-e423c64c1322bc8e4254b7a70b1da50c">sizable public funds</a> toward this cause. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/22/nyregion/medical-debt-forgiveness.html">New York City</a> recently announced plans to buy off the medical debt for half a million residents, at a cost of US$18 million. That would be the largest public buyout on record, although Los Angeles County may trump New York if it <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-10-04/la-county-buy-forgive-medical-debt-how-work">carries out its proposal</a> <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/la-county-considering-plan-to-erase-medical-debt-for-residents/">to spend</a> $24 million to help 810,000 residents erase their debt.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2wSarEVgjM0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">HBO’s John Oliver has collaborated with RIP Medical Debt.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nationally, RIP Medical Debt has helped clear more than <a href="https://ripmedicaldebt.org/about/">$10 billion</a> in debt over the past decade. That’s a huge number, but a small fraction of the estimated <a href="https://www.kff.org/health-costs/issue-brief/the-burden-of-medical-debt-in-the-united-states/">$220 billion</a> in medical debt out there. Ultimately, prevention would be better than cure.</p>
<h2>Preventing medical debt is trickier</h2>
<p>Medical debt has been a persistent <a href="https://files.consumerfinance.gov/f/documents/cfpb_medical-debt-burden-in-the-united-states_report_2022-03.pdf">problem over the past decade</a> even after the reforms of the 2010 Affordable Care Act <a href="http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMsr1406753">increased</a> <a href="http://doi.org/doi:10.1001/jama.307.9.913">insurance</a> <a href="http://doi.org/doi:10.1001/jama.2015.8421">coverage</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1353/hpu.2020.0031">made a dent</a> in debt, especially in states that <a href="http://doi.org/10.3386/w22170">expanded</a> <a href="http://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.8694/">Medicaid</a>. A recent <a href="https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2022/sep/state-us-health-insurance-2022-biennial-survey">national survey by the Commonwealth Fund</a> found that 43% of Americans lacked adequate insurance in 2022, which puts them at risk of taking on medical debt. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, it’s incredibly difficult to close coverage gaps in the patchwork American insurance system, which ties eligibility to employment, income, age, family size and location – all things that can change over time. But even in the absence of a total overhaul, there are several policy proposals that could keep the medical debt problem from getting worse.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/2022-06/Which%20County%20Characteristics%20Predict%20Medical%20Debt.pdf">Medicaid expansion</a> has been shown to reduce uninsurance, underinsurance and medical debt. Unfortunately, insurance gaps are likely to get worse in the coming year, as states <a href="https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/10-things-to-know-about-the-unwinding-of-the-medicaid-continuous-enrollment-provision/">unwind their pandemic-era Medicaid rules</a>, leaving millions without coverage. Bolstering Medicaid access in the <a href="https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/status-of-state-medicaid-expansion-decisions-interactive-map/">10 states</a> that haven’t yet expanded the program could go a long way.</p>
<p>Once patients have a medical bill in hand that they can’t afford, it can be tricky to navigate financial aid and payment options. Some states, like <a href="https://medicaldebtpolicyscorecard.org/state/MD">Maryland</a> and <a href="https://medicaldebtpolicyscorecard.org/state/CA">California</a>, are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.23061">ahead of the curve</a> <a href="https://medicaldebtpolicyscorecard.org/">with policies</a> that make it easier for patients to access aid and that rein in the use of liens, lawsuits and other aggressive collections tactics. More states could follow suit.</p>
<p>Another major factor driving underinsurance is <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2022/06/16/1104679219/medical-bills-debt-investigation#:%7E:text=For%20many%20Americans%2C%20the%20combination,slightly%20lower%20than%20the%20uninsured.">rising out-of-pocket costs</a> – like high deductibles – for those with private insurance. This is especially a concern for <a href="https://www.chiamass.gov/assets/docs/r/pubs/2020/High-Deductable-Health-Plans-CHIA-Research-Brief.pdf">low-wage</a> <a href="https://www.ajmc.com/view/financial-burden-of-healthcare-utilization-in-consumer-directed-health-plans">workers</a> who live paycheck to paycheck. More than half of large employers believe their employees <a href="https://www.kff.org/report-section/ehbs-2023-summary-of-findings/#:%7E:text=As%20noted%20above%2C%2025%25%20of,a%20moderate%20level%20of%20concern">have concerns</a> about their ability to afford medical care.</p>
<p>Lowering deductibles and out-of-pocket maximums could protect patients from accumulating debt, since it would lower the total amount they could incur in a given time period. But if the current system otherwise stayed the same, then premiums would have to rise to offset the reduction in out-of-pocket payments. Higher premiums would transfer costs across everyone in the insurance pool and make enrolling in insurance unreachable for some – which doesn’t solve the underinsurance problem.</p>
<p>Reducing out-of-pocket liability without inflating premiums would only be possible if the overall cost of health care drops. Fortunately, there’s room to reduce waste. Americans <a href="https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2023/07/why-are-americans-paying-more-for-healthcare">spend more on health care</a> than people in other wealthy countries do, and arguably get less for their money. <a href="http://doi.org/doi:10.1001/jama.2019.13978">More than a quarter</a> of health spending is on <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/reducing-administrative-costs-in-u-s-health-care/#:%7E:text=Cutler%20proposes%20several%20reforms%20to,in%20the%20health%2Dcare%20system.">administrative</a> <a href="http://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6773.13649">costs</a>, and the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2018.05144">high prices</a> Americans pay don’t necessarily translate into <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1001/jama.2019.13978">high-value care</a>. That’s why some states like <a href="https://www.milbank.org/publications/the-massachusetts-health-care-cost-growth-benchmark-and-accountability-mechanisms-stakeholder-perspectives/">Massachusetts</a> and <a href="https://hcai.ca.gov/get-the-facts-about-the-office-of-health-care-affordability/">California</a> are experimenting with <a href="https://www.chcf.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/HealthCareCostCommissionstatesAddressCostGrowth.pdf">cost growth limits</a>.</p>
<h2>Momentum toward policy change</h2>
<p>The growing number of city and county governments buying off medical debt signals that local leaders view medical debt as a problem worth solving. Congress has passed substantial <a href="https://www.cms.gov/priorities/key-initiatives/hospital-price-transparency">price transparency laws</a> and prohibited <a href="https://www.cms.gov/nosurprises">surprise medical billing</a> in recent years. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is <a href="https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/newsroom/cfpb-kicks-off-rulemaking-to-remove-medical-bills-from-credit-reports/">exploring rule changes</a> for medical debt collections and reporting, and national credit bureaus have <a href="https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/medical-debt-was-erased-credit-records-most-consumers-potentially-improving-many">voluntarily removed</a> some medical debt from credit reports to limit its impact on people’s approval for loans, leases and jobs. </p>
<p>These recent actions show that leaders at all levels of government want to end medical debt. I think that’s a good sign. After all, recognizing a problem is the first step toward meaningful change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222247/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erin Duffy receives funding from Arnold Ventures. </span></em></p>Local governments are increasingly buying – and forgiving – their residents’ medical debt.Erin Duffy, Research Scientist, University of Southern CaliforniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2244852024-03-13T12:44:11Z2024-03-13T12:44:11ZPutin has no successor, no living rivals and no retirement plan – why his eventual death will set off a vicious power struggle<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580235/original/file-20240306-16-vhol1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C15%2C5008%2C3230&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Vladimir Putin isn't waving goodbye just yet.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/russian-president-vladimir-putin-waves-as-he-attends-a-a-news-photo/1247401905">Pavel Bednyakov/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Two things are certain concerning <a href="https://news.umich.edu/putting-putin-in-his-place-a-dictator-at-war/">Russian dictator Vladimir Putin</a>. </p>
<p>First, he will be reelected as president in the rigged <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-putin-election-registration-09a46c2cdbb18758838f67b62c710608">election scheduled to run from March 15 to 17, 2024</a>, by a resounding – if fraudulent – margin. </p>
<p>Second, he is not immortal. He will die one day, and he is likely to die in office rather than retiring willingly. Though we don’t know when that day will come, the world might want to consider the power struggle that will commence the day after Putin departs.</p>
<p>Ever since he <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/07/how-putin-changed-russia-forever/">took over as president in 2000</a>, Putin has been perfecting the machinery of electoral fraud to guarantee victory. Vote buying, ballot miscounting, distribution of pre-filled ballots, tampering with ballot boxes, voter monitoring and intimidation, and ballot stuffing are all methods that Putin’s agents employ to <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/forensics-of-election-fraud/10D758699881361E5E58B62177A48394">guarantee a favorable result</a>. </p>
<p>He has also jailed political opponents, exiled others and denied yet others the ability to challenge him in fair elections. In the most extreme cases, he has had hands in the murders of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60878663">opposition figures like Boris Nemtsov</a> and, most recently, <a href="https://theconversation.com/yulia-navalnaya-widow-of-alexei-navalny-steps-forward-to-lead-the-russian-opposition-3-points-to-understand-224050">the prison death of Alexei Navalny</a>. There will be no surprises in this election: Putin’s victory will reaffirm his iron grip on Russia’s politics.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=rxMe6yoAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">scholar of Russian politics and foreign policy</a> who has studied Putin’s regime for the past 25 years, I have watched him <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euras.2016.11.001">build a dictatorship in Russia</a> that rivals the repressive Soviet Union in both its brutality and corruption. </p>
<p>But ironically, Putin is a prisoner of the political system he has built around himself for the past 24 years. Like many dictators, he cannot walk away from power and enjoy a quiet retirement even if he wanted to. He is too attached to, and dependent on, the <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/how-russian-president-vladimir-putin-secretly-became-the-worlds-richest-person/news-story/302a422aca6502c7346cc26435ab2e75">mind-boggling wealth and power</a> he has accumulated during his time as a public servant.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580244/original/file-20240306-16-rr2em0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man holding a microphone stands in front of a crowd waving Russian flags." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580244/original/file-20240306-16-rr2em0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580244/original/file-20240306-16-rr2em0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580244/original/file-20240306-16-rr2em0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580244/original/file-20240306-16-rr2em0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580244/original/file-20240306-16-rr2em0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580244/original/file-20240306-16-rr2em0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580244/original/file-20240306-16-rr2em0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Russian President Vladimir Putin can draw a big crowd.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/RussiaPutin/c73ce8bf235340c5907fadc647ee1f48/photo">Mikhail Metzel, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Protection against threats</h2>
<p>But even if Putin got to keep his <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/20/russian-emails-vladimir-putin-llcinvest">palaces and yachts</a>, there would be no guarantee of safety in retirement. </p>
<p>If Putin gave up power, his successor might come after him. Putin’s personal authority, charisma and influence would always be a threat to his successor as long as he was alive, a tempting target for the next ruler, and Putin knows it.</p>
<p>The other reason most dictators won’t even name their successor is that it might initiate a <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/how-dictatorships-work/8DC095F7A890035729BB0BB611738497">bitter power struggle</a> even before the dictator retires or dies. Imagine if Putin picked a successor: That person would immediately become the target of the unsuccessful contenders not chosen for the job. </p>
<p>There are bitter rivalries even among <a href="https://time.com/4012838/inside-vladimir-putins-circle/">Putin’s inner circle</a> of cronies. Usually Putin manages to <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7864/j.ctt4cg8c5">keep those struggles in check</a>, but the 2023 revolt by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/26/opinion/russia-putin-ukraine-wagner.html">Wagner warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin</a> against the Ministry of Defense shows how deadly these competitions can turn. Prigozhin was killed in an <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-putin-prigozhin-mutiny-wagner-ukraine-africa-03a8797d0c923d3db3f1dd8f604e9a38">August 2023 plane crash</a> whose real <a href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/who-killed-yevgeny-prigozhin">cause may never be known</a>, but Putin’s hand is widely suspected. </p>
<p>Behind each of the wealthy insiders who support Putin – <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/03/29/1088886554/how-putin-conquered-russias-oligarchy">his oligarchs</a> – stands a deep network of <a href="https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/stealing-russia-blind/">corrupt cronies</a> who would stand to lose their power, wealth and perhaps even freedom if a rival succeeded in taking over. Putin’s departure could set off a bloody power struggle whenever it happened, so why would he risk it ahead of time by naming his successor?</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/E5dtkKspznQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A superyacht thought to be owned by Vladimir Putin has been impounded in Italy under global sanctions related to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Power over others</h2>
<p>Putin is not likely to be removed by any palace coup. His control over Russia’s security services has allowed him to crush rivals and control the media, judiciary, regional leaders, parliament and community groups. He has also closely monitored threats from potential opposition figures inside and outside his regime, and <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/23/putin-coup-russian-regime/">made his regime “coup-proof,”</a> as one scholar put it.</p>
<p>His cultivation of <a href="https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/nationalist-and-imperial-thinking-define-putins-vision-russia">anti-Western Russian nationalism</a> has won him the loyalty of the military and citizenry – at least for now. </p>
<p>Putin also uses his <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/05_russia_financial_crisis_gaddy.pdf">control over Russia’s natural resource wealth</a> to keep his oligarchs in line. He decides <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7864/j.ctt4cg8c5.12">which oligarchs are appointed</a> to lead Russia’s major state-owned oil, gas, mineral and industrial producers. As long as they remain loyal to Putin and support his political and economic directives, these oligarchs are allowed to <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/03/22/1087654279/how-shock-therapy-created-russian-oligarchs-and-paved-the-path-for-putin">profit handsomely by plundering the income</a> their companies earn.</p>
<p>The oligarchs’ wealth and freedom are conditional on staying in Putin’s good graces. Cross him and they could lose everything. <a href="https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/yukos-case-old-russian-wrong-keeps-haunting-president-putin">Jailed tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky</a> learned that in 2003 when, after criticizing Putin, he was imprisoned and saw his Yukos oil company seized by the state.</p>
<p>And just in case any of them did step out of line despite their dependence on his largesse, there’s another reason none of the oligarchs cross Putin: For decades he has amassed a trove of <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/03/russia-government-blackmail-kompromat/585850/">compromising materials or “kompromat”</a> with which to blackmail even his closest advisers.</p>
<p>In short, the entire Russian elite have nothing to gain and everything to lose by defecting from Putin’s coalition.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580266/original/file-20240306-20-306kr7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A person in a hard hat and a brightly colored vest walks past large piles of cut trees." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580266/original/file-20240306-20-306kr7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580266/original/file-20240306-20-306kr7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580266/original/file-20240306-20-306kr7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580266/original/file-20240306-20-306kr7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580266/original/file-20240306-20-306kr7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580266/original/file-20240306-20-306kr7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580266/original/file-20240306-20-306kr7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Russian timber and lumber company Segezha Group is run by a close associate of Vladimir Putin and is under sanctions from the U.S. in the wake of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/worker-walks-near-harvested-timbers-at-a-felling-site-of-news-photo/1543816008">Alexander Manzyuk/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>After death</h2>
<p>If Putin can’t retire and probably won’t be deposed, what happens when he finally does die in office? According to the Russian constitution, the <a href="http://www.constitution.ru/en/10003000-05.htm">prime minister automatically becomes acting president</a> with limited powers when the president can or will no longer serve. Remember, that was Putin’s first step toward <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2000/01/01/world/yeltsin-resigns-overview-yeltsin-resigns-naming-putin-acting-president-run-march.html">becoming president in 2000</a> when Boris Yeltsin resigned.</p>
<p>This time around, the transition would look much different. Russia’s current prime minister is <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/who-is-russias-new-pm-a-career-bureaucrat-with-no-political-aims">Mikhail Mishustin</a>, a rather bland and uncharismatic former tax official who lacks a strong power base of his own. Should he succeed Putin as acting president, it’s unlikely that he would become the permanent replacement.</p>
<p>Under the constitution, <a href="http://www.constitution.ru/en/10003000-05.htm">new presidential elections must be held within three months</a> of the president’s death or incapacitation. But the real scramble for power will take place behind the scenes and not at the ballot box. </p>
<p>It’s possible that the potentially violent power struggle could be resolved before the election, but three months is not much time for a successor to consolidate their grip and fill the void left by Putin. It’s also possible that a consensus candidate might be allowed to win the election while the real struggle between factions plays out in the ensuing months and years.</p>
<p>Or, an informal coalition of leaders attempts to rule collectively while holding the key positions of power like the presidency, premiership and security services. This sort of power-sharing arrangement has historical precedent in Russia: Coalitions proclaiming “collective leadership” <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/125599?seq=1">briefly held power after the deaths of both Vladimir Lenin and Josef Stalin</a>. But in each case, one member of the coalition was able to outmaneuver and eliminate their partners: <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/125599?seq=1">first Stalin</a> and later <a href="https://babel.ua/en/texts/69417-70-years-ago-nikita-khrushchev-headed-the-communist-party-although-no-one-took-him-seriously-after-stalin-s-death-this-is-how-he-defeated-his-competitors-malenkov-and-beria-and-seized-power-in-the-uss">Nikita Khrushchev</a>. These cases are reminders that autocratic succession is usually a messy affair.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580237/original/file-20240306-16-vztbm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Four men in hats and overcoats walk down a street." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580237/original/file-20240306-16-vztbm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580237/original/file-20240306-16-vztbm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580237/original/file-20240306-16-vztbm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580237/original/file-20240306-16-vztbm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580237/original/file-20240306-16-vztbm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580237/original/file-20240306-16-vztbm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580237/original/file-20240306-16-vztbm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vladimir Lenin’s successors in power in the Soviet Union, from left, Josef Stalin, Alexei Rykov, Lev Kamenev and Grigory Zinoviev. Stalin had the others killed and seized sole power for himself.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/LENINSSUCCESSORSMOSCOW/86a64430a2e5da11af9f0014c2589dfb/photo">AP Photo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But the days, months and years after Putin’s departure may be even more turbulent than anyone expects. Never before has so much personal authority been concentrated in the hands of a single Russian leader with so few supporting institutions to help stabilize a leadership transition. There is no monarchical succession, <a href="https://imperialhouse.ru/en/imperialhouse-en/succession/385.html">as under the Romanovs</a>, the last royal family to rule the country. Nor are there the strong institutions of a <a href="https://pages.ucsd.edu/%7Emnaoi/page4/POLI227/files/page1_11.pdf">single-party state</a> to constrain rivals as in Soviet times. </p>
<p>There is only Putin.</p>
<p><em>The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the official policy or position of the Army, Department of Defense or United States government.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224485/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Person is an Associate Professor of International Relations at the United States Military Academy. The views presented in this article are his own and do not represent the official policy or position of the Army, Department of Defense, or United States Government.</span></em></p>A West Point professor of Russian politics and foreign policy looks at the future of Russia without Putin.Robert Person, Associate Professor of International Relations, United States Military Academy West PointLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2255382024-03-13T12:42:01Z2024-03-13T12:42:01ZCongress’ failure so far to deliver on promise of tens of billions in new research spending threatens America’s long-term economic competitiveness<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581408/original/file-20240312-20-9x0dhz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=97%2C59%2C4895%2C3270&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Science is again on the chopping block on Capitol Hill.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ScienceMarch/0403cab20ac24aeb8c568b5adadde36f/photo?Query=national%20science%20foundation&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=277&digitizationType=Digitized&currentItemNo=13&vs=true&vs=true">AP Photo/Sait Serkan Gurbuz</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Federal spending on fundamental scientific research is pivotal to America’s long-term economic competitiveness and growth. But less than two years after <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/08/09/fact-sheet-chips-and-science-act-will-lower-costs-create-jobs-strengthen-supply-chains-and-counter-china/">agreeing the U.S. needed to invest</a> tens of billions of dollars more in basic research than it had been, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/09/biden-touted-science-funding-but-congress-hollowed-out-his-promise-00146065#:%7E:text=The%20law%20authorized%20NSF%20to,according%20to%20the%20CHIPS%20Act.">Congress is already seriously scaling back</a> its plans. </p>
<p>A package of funding bills recently passed by Congress and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/03/08/1237131404/senate-passes-spending-package-hours-ahead-of-shutdown-deadline">signed by President Joe Biden</a> on March 9, 2024, cuts the current fiscal year budget for the <a href="https://www.nsf.gov">National Science Foundation</a>, America’s premier basic science research agency, <a href="https://www.aibs.org/news/2024/240311-fy24-science-funding">by over 8%</a> relative to last year. That puts the NSF’s current allocation <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/09/biden-touted-science-funding-but-congress-hollowed-out-his-promise-00146065#:%7E:text=The%20law%20authorized%20NSF%20to,according%20to%20the%20CHIPS%20Act.">US$6.6 billion below</a> targets Congress set in 2022.</p>
<p>And the president’s budget blueprint for the next fiscal year, released on March 11, doesn’t look much better. Even assuming his request for the NSF is fully funded, it would still, based on my calculations, leave the agency a total of $15 billion behind the plan Congress laid out to help the U.S. keep up with countries such as China that are <a href="https://news.bloomberglaw.com/ip-law/china-to-mobilize-nation-as-it-fights-us-for-tech-supremacy-1">rapidly increasing their science budgets</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://public.websites.umich.edu/%7Ejdos/">I am a sociologist</a> who studies how <a href="https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=26387">research universities contribute to the public good</a>. I’m also the executive director of the <a href="https://iris.isr.umich.edu/">Institute for Research on Innovation and Science</a>, a national university consortium whose members share data that helps us understand, explain and work to amplify those benefits. </p>
<p>Our data shows how underfunding basic research, especially in high-priority areas, poses a real threat to the United States’ role as a leader in critical technology areas, forestalls innovation and makes it harder to recruit the skilled workers that high-tech companies need to succeed.</p>
<h2>A promised investment</h2>
<p>Less than two years ago, in August 2022, university researchers like me had reason to celebrate. </p>
<p>Congress had just <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/08/09/fact-sheet-chips-and-science-act-will-lower-costs-create-jobs-strengthen-supply-chains-and-counter-china/">passed the bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act</a>. The science part of the law promised <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-02086-z">one of the biggest federal investments</a> in the <a href="https://www.nsf.gov">National Science Foundation</a> in its 74-year history.</p>
<p>The CHIPS act authorized US$81 billion for the agency, promised to double its budget by 2027 and directed it to “address societal, national, and geostrategic challenges for the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/117/plaws/publ167/PLAW-117publ167.pdf">benefit of all Americans</a>” by investing in research.</p>
<p>But there was one very big snag. The money still has to be appropriated by Congress every year. Lawmakers <a href="https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty-research/policy-topics/public-finance/how-cure-government-budget-dysfunction">haven’t been good at doing that</a> recently. As lawmakers struggle to keep the lights on, fundamental research is quickly becoming a casualty of political dysfunction. </p>
<p><iframe id="6k1Rl" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/6k1Rl/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Research’s critical impact</h2>
<p>That’s bad because fundamental research matters in more ways than you might expect. </p>
<p>For instance, the basic discoveries that made the <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/medicine/2023/press-release/">COVID-19 vaccine possible</a> stretch back to the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-02483-w">early 1960s</a>. Such research investments contribute to the health, wealth and well-being of society, <a href="https://new.nsf.gov/tip/updates/nsf-pilot-assess-impact-strategic-investments-regional-jobs">support jobs and regional economies</a> and are vital to the U.S. economy and national security.</p>
<p>Lagging research investment will hurt U.S. leadership in critical technologies such as artificial intelligence, advanced communications, clean energy and biotechnology. Less support means less new research work gets done, fewer new researchers are trained and important new discoveries are made elsewhere. </p>
<p>But disrupting federal research funding also directly <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-feels-the-pain-of-science-research-budget-cuts-75119">affects people’s jobs, lives and the economy</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://nyuscholars.nyu.edu/en/publications/proximity-and-economic-activity-an-analysis-of-vendor-business-tr">Businesses nationwide thrive</a> by selling the goods and services – everything from pipettes and biological specimens to notebooks and plane tickets – that are necessary for research. Those vendors include high-tech startups, manufacturers, contractors and even Main Street businesses like your local hardware store. They employ your neighbors and friends and contribute to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-the-federal-budget-funds-scientific-research-its-the-economy-that-benefits-80651">economic health of your hometown</a> and the nation. </p>
<p>Nearly a third of the $10 billion in federal research funds that 26 of the universities in our consortium used in 2022 directly <a href="https://irisweb.isr.umich.edu/reports/spending_report/15114/53a139385e/5293dc024f/ne">supported U.S. employers</a>, including:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>A Detroit welding shop that sells gases many labs use in experiments funded by the National Institutes of Health, National Science Foundation, Department of Defense and Department of Energy. </p></li>
<li><p>A Dallas-based <a href="https://www.beckgroup.com/projects/texas-university-systems-national-center-innovation-advanced-development-manufacturing/">construction company</a> that is building an advanced vaccine and drug development facility paid for by the Department of Health and Human Services.</p></li>
<li><p>More than a dozen Utah businesses, including surveyors, engineers and construction and trucking companies, working on a <a href="https://utahforge.com/">Department of Energy project</a> to develop breakthroughs in geothermal energy.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>When Congress shortchanges basic research, it also damages businesses like these and people you might not usually associate with academic science and engineering. Construction and manufacturing companies earn more than $2 billion each year from <a href="https://irisweb.isr.umich.edu/reports/new-vendor-report/15115/24ae1564e6/3be59f6032/ne">federally funded research</a> done by our consortium’s members.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569123/original/file-20240112-29-o5dds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=380%2C171%2C7799%2C4831&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569123/original/file-20240112-29-o5dds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569123/original/file-20240112-29-o5dds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569123/original/file-20240112-29-o5dds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569123/original/file-20240112-29-o5dds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569123/original/file-20240112-29-o5dds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569123/original/file-20240112-29-o5dds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A lag or cut in federal research funding would harm U.S. competitiveness in critical advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and robotics.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/teacher-in-a-stem-class-at-the-lab-developing-a-royalty-free-image/1348130740?phrase=research%20lab%20ai">Hispanolistic/E+ via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Jobs and innovation</h2>
<p>Disrupting or decreasing research funding also slows the flow of STEM – science, technology, engineering and math – talent from universities to American businesses. Highly trained people are essential to <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1126/science.aac5949">corporate innovation</a> and to U.S. leadership in key fields, such as AI, where companies depend on hiring to secure <a href="https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/the-industry-of-ideas-measuring-how-artificial-intelligence-changes-labor-markets/">research expertise</a>. </p>
<p>In 2022, federal research grants paid wages for about 122,500 people at universities that shared data with my institute. More than half of them were students or trainees. <a href="https://irisweb.isr.umich.edu/reports/employee-report/15110/e656278fea/1c4bfff4a0">Our data shows</a> that they go on to many types of jobs but are particularly important for leading tech companies such as Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Intel.</p>
<p>That same data lets me estimate that over 300,000 people who worked at U.S. universities in 2022 were paid by federal research funds. Threats to federal research investments put academic jobs at risk. They also hurt private sector innovation because even the most successful companies need to hire people with expert research skills. Most people learn those skills by working on university research projects, and most of those projects are federally funded.</p>
<h2>High stakes</h2>
<p>If Congress doesn’t move to fund fundamental science research to meet CHIPS and Science Act targets – and make up for the $11.6 billion it’s already behind schedule – the long-term consequences for American competitiveness could be serious.</p>
<p>Over time, companies would see fewer skilled job candidates, and academic and corporate researchers would produce fewer discoveries. Fewer high-tech startups would mean slower economic growth. America would become less competitive in the age of AI. This would turn one of the fears that led lawmakers to pass the CHIPS and Science Act into a reality.</p>
<p>Ultimately, it’s up to lawmakers to decide whether to fulfill their promise to invest more in the research that supports jobs across the economy and in American innovation, competitiveness and economic growth. So far, that promise is looking pretty fragile.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/congress-is-failing-to-deliver-on-its-promise-of-billions-more-in-research-spending-threatening-americas-long-term-economic-competitiveness-215866">article originally published</a> on Jan. 16, 2024.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225538/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Owen-Smith receives research support from the National Science Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and Wellcome Leap. </span></em></p>A deal that avoided a shutdown also slashed spending for the National Science Foundation, putting it billions below a congressional target intended to supercharge American science research.Jason Owen-Smith, Professor of Sociology, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2254222024-03-13T12:41:26Z2024-03-13T12:41:26ZWhat is the Darien Gap? And why are more migrants risking this Latin American route to get to the US?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581331/original/file-20240312-22-hvlt6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C140%2C3347%2C2084&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Migrants wade through the Tuquesa River as they traverse the Darien Gap.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/PanamaMigrants/2c51a3fc202e44459d50d668897f80eb/photo?Query=Darien%20Gap&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=288&currentItemNo=62">AP Photo/Arnulfo Franco</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Much of the discussion over illegal immigration to the U.S. has in recent weeks <a href="https://apnews.com/article/immigration-latin-america-venezuela-ukraine-mexico-712d00c90114568fe8a1b5c9e26fdadd">moved its focus south to the Darien Gap</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>This treacherous route that spans parts of Central and South America has seen an increasing number of people attempting to pass on their way to claiming asylum in the U.S.</em></p>
<p><em>To explore the reasons why, The Conversation turned to Sara McKinnon, an <a href="https://commarts.wisc.edu/staff/mckinnon-sara/">immigration scholar at University of Wisconsin-Madison</a>, who knows the region well and has interviewed people who have traversed the jungle crossing.</em></p>
<h2>Where is the Darien Gap?</h2>
<p>The Darien Gap is a stretch of densely forested jungle across northern Colombia and southern Panama. Roughly 60 miles (97 kilometers) across, the terrain is muddy, wet and unstable.</p>
<p><iframe id="QA5lJ" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QA5lJ/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>No paved roads exist in the Darien Gap. Yet despite this, it has become a major route for global human migration.</p>
<p>Depending on how much they can pay, people must walk anywhere from <a href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/dari%C3%A9n-gap-migration-crossroads">four to 10 days</a> up and down mountains, over fast-flowing rivers and through mud, carrying everything they have – and often carrying children who are too young to walk – to make it through the pass. Those who make it through then take buses through most of Central America and make their way north through Mexico to the U.S. border zone.</p>
<p>Cellphone service stops once people enter the dense forest; migrants rely on the paid “guides” and fellow migrants to make it through. </p>
<p>In the decade prior to 2021, <a href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/dari%C3%A9n-gap-migration-crossroads">10,000 people annually</a> took this route on their way north to seek residence in the United States and Canada. </p>
<p>Then, in 2021, the Panamanian government documented <a href="https://www.iom.int/news/number-migrants-who-embarked-dangerous-darien-gap-route-nearly-doubled-2022">133,000 crossings</a>, a dramatic increase in human movement in such a volatile stretch of land. In 2023, more than <a href="https://www.datosabiertos.gob.pa/dataset/migracion-irregulares-en-transito-por-darien-por-pais-2023">half a million people</a> transited through this part of the Isthmus of Panama.</p>
<h2>Why is it so dangerous?</h2>
<p>The route, and really the entire trajectory that people take when they migrate from South America to North America, is controlled by criminal organizations that <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/immigration-crisis-migrant-smuggling-darien-gap-cfb40940">make millions, if not billions of dollars</a>, annually in the human migration economy.</p>
<p>It is impossible to cross this stretch of land without the help of a smuggler, or guide, because the criminal organizations who control the territory demand payment for passage.</p>
<p>Payment does not, however, assure safe passage. Sometimes the very people paid to facilitate the journey extort migrants for more money. There are also <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/andes/colombia-central-america/102-bottleneck-americas-crime-and-migration">reports of armed groups</a> ambushing those in transit to seize their belongings and steal what money they may have stowed away and sewn into clothing seams.</p>
<p>Extortion and kidnapping are common occurrences, and the medical aid charity Doctors Without Borders recently reported a surge in instances of <a href="https://www.msf.org/lack-action-sees-sharp-rise-sexual-violence-people-transiting-darien-gap-panama">mass sexual assault</a> in which hundreds of people have been captured, assaulted and raped – often in front of family members. In December 2023, one person was sexually assaulted <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/feb/05/darien-gap-sexual-attacks-panama-colombia-migrants">every 3½ hours</a> while crossing, according to Doctors Without Borders.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cfr.org/article/crossing-darien-gap-migrants-risk-death-journey-us">extreme nature of the swamplike jungle</a> also makes the journey dangerous.</p>
<p>The paths can be very muddy, especially in the rainy season. In mountainous sections, it is often necessary to climb over steep rocks, or cling to a rope to not slip and fall off a cliff. </p>
<p>The Missing Migrant Project reported <a href="https://missingmigrants.iom.int/sites/g/files/tmzbdl601/files/publication/file/MMP%20Americas%20briefing%202022%20-%20ES_3.pdf">141 known deaths</a> in the Darien Gap in 2023, which is likely a fraction of the actual number due to the challenges in reporting and recovering bodies.</p>
<p>Many of the people I interviewed who had made the journey talked about seeing bodies along the path covered in mud, likely the result of slipping or falling to their death. </p>
<p>Fellow migrants left markers close to the bodies, such as pieces of fabric tied to a tree, and took photos of the dead in the hopes that this evidence might someday help recover the bodies.</p>
<p>The rivers are also dangerous. Flash floods and rushing rapids mean that many people are swept away and drown in the muddy waters. Bruises, cuts, animal bites and fractures are common. The high humidity and heat each day, combined with a lack of clean drinking water, mean that many fall sick with symptoms of severe dehydration. </p>
<p>Vector-borne, water-borne and fungal-related illnesses are <a href="https://www.unocha.org/news/migration-through-darien-jungle-7-things-know-about-perilous-trek">also quite common</a>.</p>
<h2>What is behind the recent surge in crossings?</h2>
<p>Violence, insecurity and instability in their home countries cause many people to move. They may move to elsewhere in their region. But when the level of violence and insecurity is similar in that country, they keep moving to find a safer place to live.</p>
<p>Options for legally allowed immigration are increasingly limited for those in low-income countries. For example, when governments implement travel visa restrictions for certain nationalities, it impacts the options available to the people of that country for movement. </p>
<p>In 2021, with pressure from the United States, Mexico started requiring <a href="https://www.wola.org/analysis/mexico-restrictive-visa-policy-limits-venezuelans-ability-flee-us/">Venezuelans traveling to Mexico to carry travel visas</a>. This meant that Venezuelans hoping to seek asylum in the United States could no longer first fly to Mexico as a tourist and then present themselves at the border to a U.S. Customs and Border Protection agent to express their fear of returning to their home country.</p>
<p>Venezuelans had to find another route to move, and for many, that was and continues to be irregular transit through the Darien Gap without travel documents. </p>
<h2>Who is making the journey?</h2>
<p>In 2023, of the 520,085 people who moved through the region, <a href="https://www.migracion.gob.pa/images/img2023/pdf/IRREGULARES_X_DARIEN_2023.pdf">Venezuelans counted for over half at 328,650</a>. But the total also included 56,422 Haitians, 25,565 Chinese, 4,267 Afghans, 2,252 Nepali, 1,636 Cameroonians and 1,124 Angolans.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A child is hoisted onto an adult's shoulders as a woman and man wade through water." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581334/original/file-20240312-28-i0czkw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581334/original/file-20240312-28-i0czkw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581334/original/file-20240312-28-i0czkw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581334/original/file-20240312-28-i0czkw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581334/original/file-20240312-28-i0czkw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581334/original/file-20240312-28-i0czkw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581334/original/file-20240312-28-i0czkw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Haitian migrants wade through water as they cross the Darien Gap.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/YEMigration/4294f14f09a24ca0beeba0b14dc0120f/photo?Query=Darien%20Gap&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=288&currentItemNo=95">AP Photo/Ivan Valencia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Human migration in the Americas is a global phenomenon.</p>
<p>It is also increasingly gender and age diverse, as <a href="https://www.migracion.gob.pa/images/img2023/pdf/IRREGULARES_X_DARIEN_2023.pdf">figures from the Panamanian government</a> show. Adult men made up just over half of those moving through the Darien Gap in 2023, and adult women counted for 26% of the population. </p>
<p>Children under 18 constituted 20% of those crossing, with half of those children under the age of 5. Parents may be carrying children for long stretches of the journey, or children may have to walk even though they are tired. The stress and fatigue add to the likelihood of injury along the way. </p>
<h2>How have authorities responded?</h2>
<p>The travel visa restrictions of many governments has only pushed more people to attempt this dangerous route. Governments have also been lukewarm to the presence of humanitarian groups who assist migrants in transit. On March 7, 2024, <a href="https://www.msf.org/msf-forced-suspend-medical-care-people-move-panama">Doctors Without Borders reported</a> that the Panamanian government would no longer permit the organization to provide medical support to those in transit through the Darien Gap. This reduced access to health care will certainly mean a more dangerous passage.</p>
<p>In May 2022, countries across the Americas jointly announced the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/06/10/fact-sheet-the-los-angeles-declaration-on-migration-and-protection-u-s-government-and-foreign-partner-deliverables/">Los Angeles Declaration on Migration and Protection </a> to improve regional coordination to manage migration.</p>
<p>Through this, the U.S. government implemented a series of <a href="https://migrationamericas.commarts.wisc.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/2087/2023/09/MIAP-Policy-Report-0923-1.pdf">new legal programs to move to the U.S.</a> and <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/news/2023/04/27/fact-sheet-us-government-announces-sweeping-new-actions-manage-regional-migration">application processing offices</a> in South American and Central American countries that give people the opportunity to apply for U.S. refugee resettlement, humanitarian parole and family reunification, and have the visas processed while waiting abroad. </p>
<p>But these programs are not available to people of all nationalities. And some of the programs also require official documents like passports, a requirement that excludes many of those who make their way through the Darien Gap.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225422/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sara McKinnon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>More than half a million people made the treacherous crossing in 2023 – far higher than in previous years.Sara McKinnon, Professor of Rhetoric, Politics & Culture, University of Wisconsin-MadisonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2248922024-03-13T12:38:53Z2024-03-13T12:38:53ZWhat the numbers say about diversity on corporate boards<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581302/original/file-20240312-28-1hong4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=956%2C204%2C8157%2C5260&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Corporate diversity efforts have resulted in more women and minorities sitting on boards. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/bright-clean-modern-style-conference-room-royalty-free-image/1667099947?phrase=corporate++board+directors&adppopup=true">Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Through the decades, corporate boards have been mostly white and mostly male. </p>
<p>That started changing in the early 1970s. Fueled by the historic gains of the Civil Rights Movement that broke down racial and gender barriers, a variety of social groups such as the <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/promising-students-benefit-commitment-developing-170000223.html">National Black MBA Association</a> and the <a href="https://now.org/">National Organization for Women</a> pressured corporations to build diversity programs into their management structures. </p>
<p>Over the years, a dramatic change has occurred. My latest research on the corporate boards of the top 50 companies from 2011 to 2023 shows that the percentage of whites dropped to 73.6%, the percentage of men dropped to 65.3% and, rather remarkably, the percentage of white men dropped below 50%, to 49.5%. </p>
<p>My research included reviewing the published names of the members of the boards of directors of the top 50 companies on the 2011 and 2023 Fortune 500 lists, as well as information on company websites about each of these hundreds of directors. I coded for gender, ethnicity and educational background. </p>
<p>Though the patterns differ for each of these demographic groups, the percentages of white women, Asian, Hispanic and Black Americans increased by different amounts as the percentage of white men decreased.</p>
<h2>White female directors</h2>
<p>The percentage of white females serving on boards at the top-50 companies increased from 16.8% in 2011 to 24.1% in 2023. All of these white women had undergraduate degrees, and almost two-thirds had advanced degrees, including in business, law and medicine. Many of them were <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/06/05/fortune-500-companies-2023-women-10-percent/">current or former CEOs</a> of Fortune 500 companies.</p>
<p>Notably, and related to the increase in white female directors, between 2000 and 2020 there was <a href="https://whorulesamerica.ucsc.edu/power/diversity_update_2020.html#fnr20">a dramatic increase</a> in the number of white female CEOs.</p>
<p>There were almost as many white female directors in 2023 as there were Blacks, Asian Americans and Latinos combined. In terms of sheer numbers, white men have been replaced by white women more than by any other single group.</p>
<h2>Asian American directors</h2>
<p>The changes can be seen clearly in a comparison between the makeup of the top-50 company boards <a href="https://whorulesamerica.ucsc.edu/diversity/unexpected_increase_in_diversity.html">between 2011 and 2023</a>. </p>
<p><iframe id="rQ4Ho" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/rQ4Ho/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>During that time period, the percentage of Asian Americans more than tripled, from 1.8% to 6.1%. The percentages more than doubled for Asian American men, and increased almost ninefold for Asian American females. </p>
<p>Strikingly, 17 of the 20 Asian American men who were directors in 2023 were of Indian heritage – and most but not all were born in India. Only six of the 15 Asian American women were of Indian heritage, and seven were of Chinese background.</p>
<p>Asian Americans make up about 7% of the population, so they are now only slightly underrepresented on the top Fortune boards.</p>
<h2>Black and Hispanic directors</h2>
<p>Black Americans also showed a sizable increase, from 9.4% in 2011 to 15.1% in 2023. They, too, showed a bigger jump for women, from 1.9% to 5.9%, than for men, from 7.4% to 9.2%.</p>
<p>Black people made up about 13.6% of the population in 2023, so they were slightly overrepresented on these Fortune boards. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/diversity-and-inclusion/race-in-the-workplace-the-frontline-experience">McKinsey & Company</a>, a management consulting firm, conducted a study of 53 corporations, most of which were Fortune 500 companies. The study, released in 2022, found that there were far fewer Black men and women in the pipeline leading to the CEO office than on the boards. That pipeline includes jobs such as managers, vice presidents and others on leadership teams.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="A Black woman is speaking as she sits in a chair on stage." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581313/original/file-20240312-26-kv4ftg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581313/original/file-20240312-26-kv4ftg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581313/original/file-20240312-26-kv4ftg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581313/original/file-20240312-26-kv4ftg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581313/original/file-20240312-26-kv4ftg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581313/original/file-20240312-26-kv4ftg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581313/original/file-20240312-26-kv4ftg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Michelle Jordan, AT&T chief diversity officer, talks about equity and inclusion during a 2023 conference in Atlanta.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/michelle-jordan-chief-diversity-officer-at-t-speaks-onstage-news-photo/1779377976?adppopup=true">Paras Griffin/WireImage</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This suggests that these companies are trying to appear diverse through the makeup of their boards, even as they haven’t diversified the executive ranks.</p>
<p>Hispanic Americans showed only a slight increase in representation on the boards, from 4.7% in 2011 to 5.2% in 2023, with women almost doubling their representation, from 1.1% to 2.1%, and men decreasing from 3.6% to 3.1%. </p>
<p>Hispanic Americans make up about 19% of the U.S. population. As a group, they were very much underrepresented on corporate boards.</p>
<p>Many of those in all of the groups I looked at had attended elite colleges and universities, either as undergraduates or for postgraduate work. Recent evidence showing that Hispanic men and women have been <a href="https://edtrust.org/resource/private-universities-havent-increased-diversity/?emci=6e70acb4-83d5-ee11-85f9-002248223794&emdi=425387aa-41d6-ee11-85f9-002248223794&ceid=456745%5D">vastly underrepresented at elite colleges</a> over the past two decades suggests that few are making it through the pipeline from these schools to Fortune 500 boards.</p>
<h2>Recent attacks on diversity</h2>
<p>With <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-2003-supreme-court-decision-upholding-affirmative-action-planted-the-seeds-of-its-overturning-as-justices-then-and-now-thought-racism-an-easily-solved-problem-208807">the 2023 Supreme Court decision</a> against affirmative action in higher education – and <a href="https://www.wsj.com/us-news/law/diversity-equity-dei-companies-blum-2040b173">subsequent lawsuits</a> against the practices that some corporations have used to address inequality – the civil rights gains in higher education and on corporate boards are in jeopardy of being reversed by conservative resistance. </p>
<p>In fact, many big companies have been “backing away from efforts to promote diversity, equity and inclusion in their ranks,” according to a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/04/01/woke-capitalism-esg-dei-climate-investment/">Washington Post corporate culture reporter</a>.</p>
<p>The pattern that I have found in board composition between the 1990s and 2023 is consistent with data from 2013 to 2023 that was published by <a href="https://www.spencerstuart.com/research-and-insight/sp-500-new-director-and-diversity-snapshot">Spencer Stuart</a>, an executive search firm. It found that in 2013, only 39% of newly appointed directors were women and underrepresented minorities.</p>
<p>In the next decade, the percentage of new diversity appointments to boards increased dramatically, from the 39% in 2013, to 60% in 2018, to 86% in 2021, and then tapered off to 82% in 2022 and 75% in 2023.</p>
<p>Based on my findings and those of other researchers, it is likely that the ups and downs of diversity on corporate boards will serve as an indicator of the success – or failure – of ongoing efforts to increase inclusion in all walks of American life.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224892/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richie Zweigenhaft does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Since the 1970s, corporate boards have included more women and minorities. But those gains are likely to change after a US Supreme Court ruling and increased conservative resistance.Richie Zweigenhaft, Professor of Psychology, Emeritus, Guilford CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2250692024-03-13T12:38:35Z2024-03-13T12:38:35ZHopes that Biden will quit his reelection campaign ignore the differences – and lessons – of LBJ and 1968’s Democratic catastrophe<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580739/original/file-20240308-16-a0f8xb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=22%2C5%2C3671%2C2447&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago was not a peaceful event.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-sign-over-archway-leading-to-the-international-news-photo/515578006?adppopup=true">Bettmann/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s just over six months until Election Day. The president faces a tough fight for reelection. His approval rating has cratered below 40% in the polls, his party is divided over a foreign war, and a bipartisan chorus declares that he’s no longer up to the job. Polls show him running neck and neck with the likely Republican nominee. </p>
<p>Faced with this grim situation, the president decides to put country before his own political ambition and declares he won’t run for reelection.</p>
<p>Joe Biden in 2024? </p>
<p>Nope, it’s Lyndon Johnson in 1968. On March 31 of that year, <a href="https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/presidential-speeches/march-31-1968-remarks-decision-not-seek-re-election">LBJ shocked the nation when</a>, at the end of a televised address on the Vietnam War, he declared, “I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president.”</p>
<p>Today, a chorus of <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2024/0227/Biden-should-drop-out!-No-he-shouldn-t!-Debate-rages">political commentators predict or hope</a> that Biden will follow LBJ’s example. But 2024 is not 1968, and Joseph Robinette Biden is not Lyndon Baines Johnson.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CJeLoMCF6Jo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">‘I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president,’ said LBJ on March 31, 1968.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Divisions over a war</h2>
<p>In 1968, the Democratic Party was deeply divided over the Vietnam War. Despite having deployed over 500,000 troops and suffered over 20,000 deaths, the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2015/03/the-vietnam-war-part-ii-losses-and-withdrawal/389192/">U.S. seemed no closer to victory</a>. </p>
<p>So-called “<a href="https://news.gallup.com/vault/191828/gallup-vault-hawks-doves-vietnam.aspx">hawks</a>” demanded that the president hold the line in Vietnam or even escalate further in order to achieve total victory. “<a href="https://news.gallup.com/vault/191828/gallup-vault-hawks-doves-vietnam.aspx">Doves</a>” argued that the war was unwinnable and the U.S. should look for a negotiated settlement.</p>
<p>Today, many <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/inside-democratic-rebellion-against-biden-over-gaza-war-2024-02-27/">Democrats oppose Biden’s support</a> for Israel’s military campaign against Hamas, but it’s easy to overstate this division. A recent Gallup poll found that only 1% of Americans cited “war in the Middle East” as <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/most-important-problem.aspx">the nation’s top problem</a>. </p>
<p>In contrast, early in 1968, Gallup found that a majority of Americans – 53% – said that Vietnam was the <a href="https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/ipoll/study/31087737/questions#fdf0b252-9191-417f-89ba-ba32cd16c587">most important issue facing the nation</a>. </p>
<p>Furthermore, most Democrats remain supportive of Israel. A recent Reuters poll found that 46% of Democrats blame Hamas for the war compared with <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-dogged-by-democrats-anger-over-israel-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-02-29/">only 22% who blame Israel</a>. </p>
<p>Whatever concerns Democrats might have over Biden, the fact remains that no prominent Democrats have chosen to oppose him for the party nomination. Even leading progressive Democrats like <a href="https://apnews.com/article/bernie-sanders-biden-endorsement-2024-d8f0772b117e2bf83e1062708ea651c0">Sen. Bernie Sanders</a> and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/aoc-endorses-biden-2024-president-democrats-3c722f5ac1bc2c568b6d962d4fe4e2b7">Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez</a> have endorsed Biden. Ocasio-Cortez even went so far as to call Biden “one of the <a href="https://nbcmontana.com/news/nation-world/aoc-calls-biden-one-of-the-most-successful-presidents-in-history-amid-age-concerns-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-2024-election-special-counsel-report-donald-trump-president-white-house">most successful presidents</a> in modern American history.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580744/original/file-20240308-28-p15lv5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A crowd of people in a convention hall, with some holding signs that say 'Stop the war.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580744/original/file-20240308-28-p15lv5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580744/original/file-20240308-28-p15lv5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580744/original/file-20240308-28-p15lv5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580744/original/file-20240308-28-p15lv5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580744/original/file-20240308-28-p15lv5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580744/original/file-20240308-28-p15lv5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580744/original/file-20240308-28-p15lv5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bitter differences over the Vietnam War were on display at the 1968 Democratic convention.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/members-of-the-new-york-delegation-protesting-against-the-news-photo/51247068?adppopup=true">Washington Bureau/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>After LBJ, no unity</h2>
<p>In contrast, differences over the Vietnam War and other issues led two sitting U.S. senators, <a href="https://features.apmreports.org/arw/campaign68/c2.html">Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota</a> and <a href="https://features.apmreports.org/arw/campaign68/a1.html">Robert F. Kennedy of New York</a>, to challenge Johnson for the Democratic nomination. And despite low name recognition and a shoestring campaign, McCarthy even managed a near upset of Johnson in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/retropolis/wp/2018/03/12/eugene-mccarthy-vs-lbj-the-new-hampshire-primary-showdown-that-changed-everything/">the New Hampshire primary</a>, held on March 12, 1968. </p>
<p>Given these differences, it seems very unlikely that Biden will seek to follow LBJ’s example by dropping out of the race. And for those who hope Biden will do so anyway, they should be careful what they wish for. </p>
<p>Johnson’s withdrawal failed to unify the party. Far from it. </p>
<p>McCarthy, Kennedy and Vice President Hubert Humphrey, who joined the race after Johnson’s exit, <a href="https://features.apmreports.org/arw/campaign68/e1.html">fought a bitter battle</a> for the nomination. Tensions exploded during that year’s <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/1968-democratic-convention-931079/">Democratic convention in Chicago</a>. </p>
<p>Americans watched on live television as <a href="https://time.com/5377386/1968-democratic-national-convention-protesters/">police brutally beat anti-war demonstrators</a> in the streets outside the convention hall. </p>
<p>Inside the convention, Sen. Abraham Ribicoff of Connecticut denounced “<a href="https://75.stripes.com/archives/chicago-democratic-convention-68-embodies-clash-over-future-america">Gestapo tactics on the streets of Chicago</a>.” In response, Chicago Mayor Richard Daley unleashed a torrent of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1996/08/25/nyregion/ribicoff-and-daley-head-to-head.html">vulgar, antisemitic comments</a>. <a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/library/politics/camp/680830convention-dem-ra.html">Humphrey eventually won the nomination</a>, but his candidacy was deeply wounded and he went on to narrowly lose the election to Richard Nixon.</p>
<p>Should Biden decide not to run, Democrats might face a similar situation. </p>
<p>There is no obvious candidate to replace him, and the contest to do so would likely inflame Democratic divisions over ideology, gender and race. Furthermore, at this late date, it would be nearly impossible to win the nomination via the remaining caucuses and primaries. </p>
<p>Instead, the Democratic convention, slated for late August in Chicago, would probably end up choosing the nominee, leaving him or her open to criticism that they were selected by party bosses rather than the people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225069/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Klinkner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An unpopular president. A war that’s dividing the country. An upcoming election. What year is it?Philip Klinkner, James S. Sherman Professor of Government, Hamilton CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2240532024-03-13T12:38:21Z2024-03-13T12:38:21ZHow AI is shaping the music listening habits of Gen Z<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581018/original/file-20240311-22-us2x6s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=40%2C16%2C5339%2C3565&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Listening to music from a device creates a protective bubble that can counteract a lack of personal space at school or home.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/physeline-michel-a-member-of-the-haitian-female-soccer-team-news-photo/1213010698?adppopup=true">Pierre Michel Jean/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For four years, we’ve been teaching a class on music and the mind. We’ve asked the students at the start of each semester to complete a short, informal survey on their music education and favorite songs and artists. </p>
<p>Our students’ musical education backgrounds always range from none to more than a decade of lessons and ensembles. But we’ve watched the list of favorite songs and artists get longer and more varied each year. When we ask the entire group about certain songs, it is often the case that no one, save for the person who included it, has heard it.</p>
<p>The findings from these informal classroom surveys are consistent with recent research showing diverse and eclectic musical preferences among adolescents. In a study on <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.1056542">the listening habits of Los Angeles middle school students</a>, we found that they appreciate artists representing a range of genres, from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-korean-boy-band-bts-toppled-asian-stereotypes-and-took-america-by-storm-97596">K-pop supergroup BTS</a> to the heavy metal band <a href="https://systemofadown.com/">System of a Down</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-team-of-musicologists-and-computer-scientists-completed-beethovens-unfinished-10th-symphony-168160">to Beethoven</a>.</p>
<p>But what happens when, as we’ve observed, young people don’t know what their peers are listening to? And does it matter that teens aren’t necessarily choosing the music they’re using to understand themselves and the world, let alone that no humans are selecting songs they’re exposed to?</p>
<h2>A shared soundscape goes private</h2>
<p>For centuries, the only way to experience music was to see it live – at small, private performances, in community gatherings or in large concert halls.</p>
<p>Radios and record players transformed how people interacted with music. But because these devices were initially stationary, there was still a social element to listening. You might gather in a friend’s basement to hear hits on the radio, throw a listening party when a new album was released, make a mixtape for your beau or belt out a favorite song on the car radio with your best friend. </p>
<p>Introduced in 1979, <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/walkman-invention-40-years-ago-launched-cultural-revolution-180972552/">the Sony Walkman</a> marked another major turning point in how people listen to music. It became a lot easier for music to be a deeply private and personal experience – even more so with the introduction of the iPod and, later, smartphones. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Photo from the 1950s of three teenage girls relaxing on a carpet listening to records." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581077/original/file-20240311-89474-dtltg3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581077/original/file-20240311-89474-dtltg3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581077/original/file-20240311-89474-dtltg3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581077/original/file-20240311-89474-dtltg3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581077/original/file-20240311-89474-dtltg3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581077/original/file-20240311-89474-dtltg3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581077/original/file-20240311-89474-dtltg3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Friends used to get together to listen to music far more often than they do today.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/1950s-three-teen-girls-talking-listening-to-music-playing-news-photo/563940019?adppopup=true">H. Armstrong Roberts/ClassicStock via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Listening to music this way isn’t always about what’s pulsing through your headphones. It can also <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2019.02911">cultivate agency</a>: No matter where you are, you are your own DJ, controlling what gets played and when. And if you choose to keep it private, no one can hear it but you. </p>
<p>Particularly for adolescents, this is a big deal. <a href="https://oshkoshnorthstar.org/4858/columns/why-are-teenagers-dependent-on-headphones/">It creates a protective bubble</a> that may counteract a lack of personal space at school or at home.</p>
<p>Young people listen to a lot of music <a href="https://doi.org/10.4103%2Fnah.NAH_65_16">throughout the day</a>, whether it’s while doing homework, training for sports, eating or even sleeping. There’s an <a href="http://st.markgroves.de/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/The-role-of-music-2.pdf">element of mood regulation at play</a>: Songs can divert unpleasant emotions or elicit positive ones, and also encourage reflection during difficult experiences.</p>
<h2>I got ‘algo-rhythm’</h2>
<p>Making a playlist used to mean playing tapes and recording individual songs onto another tape, or waiting for the radio to play a song, hitting “record” on your cassette player to capture it, song by song, <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/history-of-mixtapes-future/">until you had a mixtape of your favorite tunes</a>.</p>
<p>Now, listening <a href="https://www.ifpi.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/IFPI-Engaging-With-Music-2023_full-report.pdf">often happens via streaming</a>, where artificial intelligence and social media platforms team up to suggest playlists for you. </p>
<p>While you explore and share music on social media, <a href="https://neemz.medium.com/the-inner-workings-of-spotifys-ai-powered-music-recommendations-how-spotify-shapes-your-playlist-a10a9148ee8d">AI tracks the activity</a> and compares it to data from other listeners; in this way, it hones its predictions about what you might like to hear in the future. </p>
<p>AI is being put to work to know not only what a user wants to hear, but also to predict the next big hit that everyone will listen to. Until recently, AI’s power for predicting hits relied largely on song characteristics like <a href="https://newsroom.spotify.com/2022-11-30/learn-about-those-music-genres-you-may-not-have-heard-of/">bounciness, positiveness and danceability</a>, and hovered at around 50% accuracy.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/frai.2023.1154663">Other studies</a> have analyzed physiological responses to music, like heart rate, which can be gleaned from the biodata on teen’s smartwatches, <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/podcast/episode/heres-how-ai-can-predict-hit-songs-with-frightening-accuracy/">to predict top hits</a>.</p>
<p>These studies add to existing concerns about the mining of personal information and data, and there have long been fears that <a href="https://encyclopedia.pub/entry/35791">AI can’t be trusted and will end up manipulating people</a>. When it comes to the way AI influences your listening habits, you might wonder whether you like a song because you truly like it, or whether you only enjoy it because AI has fed you enough similar songs that familiarity has bred appreciation.</p>
<p>Some listeners feel that algorithmic curation causes them to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-almost-feel-like-stuck-in-a-rut-how-streaming-services-changed-the-way-we-listen-to-music-219967">stuck in a listening rut</a>. Their playlists are populated with songs and artists they’ve never heard of before, yet they all sound eerily similar.</p>
<h2>The upside to AI</h2>
<p>In the past, being in a listening rut was something a teenager may not have even noticed.</p>
<p>Exposed to a steady diet of the same songs regularly playing on the radio – and later, <a href="https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=96869060">on MTV</a> and VH1 – adolescents’ musical consumption was dominated by the “Top-40” artists. Their palettes were sculpted by a widely shared, if perhaps narrow, repertoire of musical knowledge.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two young women and one young man pose in front of screaming fans." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581003/original/file-20240311-18-gp310p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581003/original/file-20240311-18-gp310p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581003/original/file-20240311-18-gp310p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581003/original/file-20240311-18-gp310p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581003/original/file-20240311-18-gp310p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581003/original/file-20240311-18-gp310p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581003/original/file-20240311-18-gp310p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jennifer Lopez, Justin Timberlake and Halle Berry appear at MTV Studios in New York’s Times Square for a taping of ‘TRL’ during the network’s ‘Spankin’ New Music Week’ in 2002.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/jennifer-lopez-justin-timberlake-and-halle-berry-during-news-photo/107285046?adppopup=true">KMazur/WireImage via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>AI-generated playlists have disrupted this, and the two of us don’t see that as necessarily a bad thing. A stunning range of music is available to young people, and no longer do radio DJs, ratings and record companies serve as gatekeepers. </p>
<p>Spotify currently <a href="https://gist.github.com/andytlr/4104c667a62d8145aa3a">lists thousands of genres</a> and creates more each year so that, <a href="https://newsroom.spotify.com/2022-11-30/learn-about-those-music-genres-you-may-not-have-heard-of/">as the company explains</a>, they are more “recognizable, representative, and holistic to our listeners and communities.”</p>
<p>Like receiving a cherished gift you never knew you wanted, young people can be exposed to great music – with its accompanying cultural traditions – that they would be less likely to have discovered on their own, whether it’s <a href="https://medium.com/@khushibagwar092/indian-90s-pop-culture-861ad6250d3d">Indian pop music</a>, <a href="https://www.masterclass.com/articles/japanese-rock-music-guide">Japanese rock</a> or <a href="https://www.africanmusiclibrary.org/genre/Juju">Afro-juju</a>, a style of Nigerian popular music.</p>
<p>If teens think their AI-influenced playlists are dull, they still have the ability to search for new music. Just because algorithms and AI can suggest songs, it doesn’t preclude listeners from researching and discovering music on their own, or sharing playlists with friends and relatives.</p>
<p>Anything that exists, they can find. The store is always open.</p>
<h2>Identity, community and music</h2>
<p>Back to our college class: We noticed little overlap among the students. But instead of consuming only from a menu of industry megastars, our students showed a willingness to listen to a variety of genres and subgenres that AI will offer up. </p>
<p>When asked to reveal the most recent song or piece that they had listened to on a specific week, 6% had listened to R&B singer SZA, 2% to singer Renée Rapp, 2% to pop sensation Taylor Swift and 2% to pop rockers The 1975.</p>
<p>The remaining 80-plus selections featured a panoply of genres: <a href="https://electronicmusic.fandom.com/wiki/Computer_music">computer music</a>, rock, pop, rap, country, reggaeton, film music, heavy metal, indie and Latin ballads. </p>
<p>As young people transition from childhood to adulthood, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REP6ZNV0OR4">two seemingly opposing processes become paramount</a>: forming a unique identity, while at the same time becoming part of a community. Music listening and preferences play an important role in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mblJUqyizwg">this process</a>.</p>
<p>AI-generated playlists have the potential to challenge this transition. </p>
<p>So does AI make it easier to differentiate the self, but harder to bond with others? Or does it, instead, offer a broader spectrum for self-exploration and communal connection? </p>
<p>The truth is, no one really knows. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/chatgpt-is-confronting-but-humans-have-always-adapted-to-new-technology-ask-the-mesopotamians-who-invented-writing-199184">Fears of new technologies</a> are commonplace. For example, as scheduled network TV <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-decade-in-television-betteryet-more-atomizedthan-ever-11576620996">fell out of favor</a>, a lot of common ground for discussion and connection disappeared with it. Will 50 million Americans ever again tune in to watch the series finale of a sitcom, <a href="https://theconversation.com/4-reasons-why-well-never-see-another-show-like-friends-123411">as they did for “Friends” in 2004</a>?</p>
<p>If AI is, indeed, contributing to the transformation of adolescents’ communal listening experiences, then AI playlists are more than just a convenient way to discover your next workout tune. They are a revolution worth paying attention to.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224053/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Beatriz Ilari received funding from The Fender Play Foundation to carry out the study with Angeleno adolescents that is mentioned in the article. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lynne Snyder does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the past, adolescents’ musical palettes were dominated by the Top-40 artists, creating a widely shared – if perhaps narrow – repertoire of musical knowledge.Beatriz Ilari, Professor of Music Teaching and Learning, University of Southern CaliforniaLynne Snyder, Doctor of Musical Arts Student, University of Southern CaliforniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2253472024-03-13T12:38:06Z2024-03-13T12:38:06ZClimate-friendly beef? Argentina’s new ‘carbon-neutral’ certification could help reduce livestock emissions – if it’s done right<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580769/original/file-20240308-17800-vh4rq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=134%2C0%2C5856%2C3988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cattle are major producers of methane, a potent greenhouse gas.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ArgentinaFarmersStrike/32b525a49646407fb02737682544e817/photo">AP Photo/Victor R. Caivano</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In Argentina, where beef is a <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210522-argentina-s-beloved-beef-becomes-bone-of-contention-as-prices-soar">symbol of national pride</a>, a government-led partnership has started <a href="https://www.lanacion.com.ar/economia/campo/cambio-climatico-certificaron-en-la-argentina-la-primera-produccion-de-carne-vacuna-carbono-negativo-nid12022024/">certifying certain livestock</a> as carbon neutral. It’s a big step that shouldn’t be underestimated, but getting the certification process right is crucial. </p>
<p>The world’s livestock sector is a key driver of climate change, contributing around <a href="https://foodandagricultureorganization.shinyapps.io/GLEAMV3_Public/">12% of global greenhouse gas emissions</a>. <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cb1922en/cb1922en.pdf">Two-thirds</a> of agriculture’s annual greenhouse gas emissions come from livestock, with raising cattle for meat typically being the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/environmental-impacts-of-food">most emissions-intensive</a> activity. While shifting diets to plant-based foods and <a href="https://gfi.org/initiatives/climate/">alternative proteins</a> can help reduce emissions, global <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cb5332en/Meat.pdf">meat consumption</a> is growing with an expanding population and rising prosperity.</p>
<p>There are ways that livestock producers can reduce those emissions. However, beyond social pressure, ranchers have few incentives to do so. Unless those steps to reduce emissions also increase productivity, they typically become costs with little immediate benefit in return.</p>
<p>With formal certification, farmers can earn a higher price. This has been the case with certified organic or fair-trade products. If livestock could be raised in ways that produce fewer emissions and certified as climate-friendly, the resulting higher prices they could fetch might give producers an incentive to invest in reducing their herds’ emissions.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A cow photographed through a tree canopy." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Argentina’s new ‘carbon-neutral’ certification hinges on the grazing landscape sequestering carbon in trees and in the soil to offset methane produced by the cattle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cattle_-_Eldorado,_Misiones_(31449238075).jpg">Papa Pic, Eldorado, Argentina</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Argentina’s certification approach <a href="https://www.lanacion.com.ar/economia/campo/cambio-climatico-certificaron-en-la-argentina-la-primera-produccion-de-carne-vacuna-carbono-negativo-nid12022024/">relies on a silvopastoral system</a>, which integrates tree growth with grazing or production of grasses or grains for fodder. Livestock are raised in forest interspersed with native natural grasslands and cultivated pastures. The pasture and grazing are managed to return nutrients and organic matter to the soil. </p>
<p>The trees and soil regeneration methods both store carbon, leading to the certification’s claim that the cattle, despite the greenhouse gases they produce, are carbon neutral. </p>
<p>The certification, approved in early 2024, is a collaboration between Argentina’s National Agricultural Technology Institute and National Industrial Technology Institute and the Argentinian private sector, <a href="https://epd.inti.gob.ar/assets/uploads/libreria/S-P-07361-Eng.pdf">with certification</a> from the <a href="https://www.environdec.com/about-us/the-international-epd-system-about-the-system">International Environmental Product Declaration System</a>, one of the first and longest operating third-party verification systems of environmental claims.</p>
<p>This silvopastoral system may be hard to replicate elsewhere, but it’s only one way to reduce livestock emissions. I’m an <a href="https://keough.nd.edu/people/paul-winters/">agricultural and resource economist</a> and executive director for the <a href="https://innovationcommission.uchicago.edu/">Innovation Commission for Climate Change, Food Security and Agriculture</a>, led by Nobel Laureate Michael Kremer. Here are some other emerging innovations that could lead to livestock certifications that reduce emissions:</p>
<h2>1. Feed additives</h2>
<p>Innovative feed additives, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247820">such as red seaweed</a>, could reduce livestock methane emissions by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/AN20295">26% to 98%</a>, depending on the type of additive and how it is administered.</p>
<p>Methane is a potent greenhouse gas with many times the warming potential of carbon dioxide. About 12% of ruminants’ gross energy intake goes into digestive processes that generate methane, which the cows belch into the air. So reducing methane emissions via feed additives could also <a href="https://theconversation.com/feeding-cows-a-few-ounces-of-seaweed-daily-could-sharply-reduce-their-contribution-to-climate-change-157192">increase productivity</a> while <a href="https://www.ucdavis.edu/climate/news/can-seaweed-cut-methane-emissions-on-dairy-farms">maintaining milk quality</a>. If cattle can conserve energy in the digestive process, they can redirect it toward animal growth and milk production.</p>
<p>Startup companies, such as <a href="https://blueoceanbarns.com/">Blue Ocean Barns</a> and <a href="https://www.future-feed.com/">FutureFeed</a>, have started to produce feed additives to reduce methane. However, products like these aren’t widely used yet, largely because cattle producers have no incentive to invest in changing their practices.</p>
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<h2>2. Gene editing</h2>
<p>Research underway into gene editing – intentionally altering the genetic code of a living organism – <a href="https://www.ucdavis.edu/food/news/can-crispr-cut-methane-emissions-cow-guts">may also have the potential</a> to change the microbes that produce methane in livestock’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41564-021-01014-7">gut microbiomes</a>. That could substantially reduce livestock emissions.</p>
<p>This type of innovation <a href="https://vcresearch.berkeley.edu/news/igis-audacious-new-frontier-crispr-editing-microbiomes-climate-and-health">might benefit farmers</a> who let their livestock graze in fields rather than provide them with feed. Compared to additives like seaweed, gene editing is meant to be a long-term solution, which would make it more cost-effective over time. But like feed additives, currently there is limited incentive for breeders and producers to consider this direction.</p>
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<h2>3. Advanced farm-management practices</h2>
<p>Advanced farm-management practices, such as improved feeding software, could also help reduce methane emissions intensity. These practices tend to be more affordable than other options.</p>
<p>For example, dairy production in sub-Saharan Africa is much more <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/CA2929EN/ca2929en.pdf">emissions intensive</a> per gallon of milk than production in North America or Europe, and cows in the region are only 5%-7% as productive. This is due to a host of management limitation in low-income settings.</p>
<p>Existing technologies for animal management can be adapted to <a href="https://www.athian.ai/knowledge-hub/post/dfa-purchases-first-verified-carbon-credits-in-livestock-inset-marketplace">increase production efficiency</a> and <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/ab129327-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/ab129327-en#section-d1e24585">reduce overall emissions</a>. Methods of providing better nutrition and animal care for livestock that limit excess methane production are already <a href="https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2019-16576">widely used in higher-income countries</a>. These methods could also be adapted for producers in low- and middle-income regions, with support and the right incentives.</p>
<h2>Certification as a path forward</h2>
<p>Certification can give livestock producers incentive to use these methods, but certification systems must be carefully designed. </p>
<p>Claims like Argentina’s should be <a href="https://www.environdec.com/home">reliably verified</a> to ensure that the certification is credible. Argentina took an important step by including a proven third-party verification system, going beyond similar “climate-friendly” national programs <a href="https://www.climateactive.org.au/sites/default/files/2023-09/NAPCo%20Public%20Disclosure%20Statement_CY2022_Final.pdf">initiated in Australia</a> and <a href="https://modernfarmer.com/2021/12/low-carbon-beef-certification/">the United States</a>.</p>
<p>The organizations that verify certificates should play a role in establishing the rules, but so should governments. For example, feed additives alone are unlikely to reach “carbon-neutral,” but organizations are exploring whether <a href="https://www.athian.ai/knowledge-hub/post/dfa-purchases-first-verified-carbon-credits-in-livestock-inset-marketplace">lesser reductions</a> could be sufficient for livestock to be certified as “climate friendly” and earn a higher price for producers. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Cattle cross a dirt road with trees and rangeland in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cattle graze in Argentina.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ArgentinaElectionsFarmers/c017cec73c3d425a91263832aca47bd3/photo">AP Photo/Natacha Pisarenko</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Finally, certification will only work if consumers are willing to pay a higher price for carbon-neutral, or even just climate-friendly, meat and dairy products.</p>
<p>Higher payments can come directly from consumers buying certified products or through government regulations requiring all meat and dairy products be certified. For example, under its <a href="https://food.ec.europa.eu/horizontal-topics/farm-fork-strategy_en">Farm to Fork Strategy</a>, the European Commission encourages food systems that can mitigate climate change. If the commission were to only accept meat and dairy products certified as climate-friendly, that would create an incentive to pursue certification to enter the large European market.</p>
<p>Some environmental groups have complained that climate certification for beef and <a href="https://www.athian.ai/knowledge-hub/post/dfa-purchases-first-verified-carbon-credits-in-livestock-inset-marketplace">related carbon credits</a> result <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/175337/bs-behind-usdas-new-climate-friendly-beef-label">in greenwashing</a>, allowing companies and the industry to burnish their reputations while continuing to release emissions. But certification can also encourage livestock producers to take steps they otherwise wouldn’t to reduce overall emissions for a better planet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225347/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Winters does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cattle are major producers of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. But there are methods that can reduce their climate impact – if ranchers have incentive to use them.Paul Winters, Professor of Global Affairs, University of Notre DameLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2218362024-03-13T12:37:43Z2024-03-13T12:37:43ZLeprosy cases are rising in the US – what is the ancient disease and why is it spreading now?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581098/original/file-20240311-22-xteppq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=21%2C10%2C7167%2C4031&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Leprosy can be caused by two different bacteria, one of which was only identified in 2008.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/leprosy-bacteria-illustration-royalty-free-illustration/1193685361?phrase=leprosy&adppopup=true">Kateryna Kon/Science Photo Library via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The word “leprosy” conjures images of biblical plagues, but the disease is still with us today. Caused by infectious bacteria, <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/leprosy">some 200,000 new cases are reported each year</a>, according to the World Health Organization. In the United States, leprosy has been entrenched for more than a century in parts of the South where people came into contact with armadillos, the principle proven linkage from animal to humans. However, the more recent outbreaks in the Southeast, <a href="https://epi.ufl.edu/2023/10/16/leprosy-in-florida-medical-experts-monitoring-unusual-new-cases-of-hansens-disease/">especially Florida</a>, have not been associated with animal exposure.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation talked with <a href="https://www.ae-info.org/ae/Member/Schwartz_Robert">Robert A. Schwartz</a>, professor and head of dermatology at Rutgers New Jersey Medical School, to explain what researchers know about the disease.</em></p>
<h2>What is leprosy and why is it resurfacing in the US?</h2>
<p>Leprosy is caused by two different but similar bacteria — <em>Mycobacterium leprae</em> and <em>Mycobacterium lepromatosis</em> — the latter <a href="https://doi.org/10.1309/AJCPP72FJZZRRVMM">having just been identified in 2008</a>. Leprosy, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/leprosy/index.html">also known as Hansen’s disease</a>, is avoidable. Transmission among the most vulnerable in society, including migrant and impoverished populations, remains a pressing issue.</p>
<p>This <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ijd.15998">age-old neglected tropical disease</a>, which is still <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/leprosy">present in more than 120 countries</a>, is now a growing challenge in parts of North America. </p>
<p>Leprosy is beginning to occur regularly within parts of the southeastern United States. Most recently, Florida has seen a heightened incidence of leprosy, accounting for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2023.13938">many of the newly diagnosed cases</a> in the U.S. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2908.220367">surge in new cases</a> in central Florida highlights the urgent need for health care providers to <a href="https://www.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/hrsa/hansens-disease/hd-surveillance-form.pdf">report them</a> immediately. Contact tracing is critical to <a href="https://iris.who.int/bitstream/handle/10665/336679/9789290228073-eng.pdf">identifying sources and reducing transmission</a>. </p>
<p>Traditional risk factors include zoonotic exposure and having recently lived in leprosy-endemic countries. Brazil, India and Indonesia have each <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/leprosy">noted more than 10,000 new cases</a> since 2019, according to the World Health Organization data, and more than a dozen countries have reported between 1,000 to 10,000 new cases over the same time period.</p>
<h2>Why was leprosy stigmatized in biblical times?</h2>
<p>Evidence suggests that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1556/oh.2011.29038">leprosy has plagued civilization</a> since at least the second millennium B.C. </p>
<p>From that time until the mid-20th century, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/jid.1953.65">limited treatments were available</a>, so the bacteria could infiltrate the body and cause prominent physical deformities such as disfigured hands and feet. Advanced cases of leprosy cause facial features resembling that of a lion in humans.</p>
<p>Many mutilating and distressing skin disorders such as skin cancers and deep fungal infections were also confused with leprosy by the general public. </p>
<p>Fear of contagion has led to <a href="https://doi.org/10.53854%2Fliim-2904-18">tremendous stigmatization and social exclusion</a>. It was such a serious concern that the Kingdom of Jerusalem had a specialized hospital to care for those suffering from leprosy.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581102/original/file-20240311-139405-n6zvdy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Bandaged feet and legs of a person with leprosy." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581102/original/file-20240311-139405-n6zvdy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581102/original/file-20240311-139405-n6zvdy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581102/original/file-20240311-139405-n6zvdy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581102/original/file-20240311-139405-n6zvdy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581102/original/file-20240311-139405-n6zvdy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581102/original/file-20240311-139405-n6zvdy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581102/original/file-20240311-139405-n6zvdy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Leprosy has sometimes been confused with other mutilating skin disorders.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/feet-of-a-leper-royalty-free-image/157530061?phrase=leprosy&adppopup=true">visual7/E+ via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How infectious is leprosy?</h2>
<p>Research shows that prolonged in-person contact via respiratory droplets is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-023-08627-9">the primary mode of transmission</a>, rather than through normal, everyday contact such as embracing, shaking hands or sitting near a person with leprosy. People with leprosy generally do not transmit the disease once they begin treatment. </p>
<p>Armadillos represent the only known <a href="https://doi.org/10.3201%2Feid2112.150501">zoonotic reservoir</a> of leprosy-causing bacteria that threaten humans. These small mammals are common in Central and South America and in parts of Texas, Louisiana, Missouri and other states, where they are sometimes kept as pets or farmed as meat. Eating armadillo meat is not a clear cause of leprosy, but capturing and raising armadillos, along with preparing its meat, are risk factors.</p>
<p>The transmission mechanism between zoonotic reservoirs and susceptible individuals is unknown, but it is strongly suspected that direct contact with an infected armadillo poses a significant risk of developing leprosy. However, many cases reported in the U.S. have demonstrated an <a href="https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2908.220367">absence of either zoonotic exposure or person-to-person transmission</a> outside of North America, suggesting that transmission may be happening where the infected person lives. But in many cases, the source remains an enigma.</p>
<p>Some people’s genetics might make them <a href="https://doi.org/10.1056/nejmoa0903753">more susceptible to leprosy infections</a>, or their immune systems are less capable of resisting the disease. </p>
<p>Stigma and discrimination have <a href="https://doi.org/10.53854%2Fliim-2904-18">prevented people from seeking treatment</a>, and as a result, “concealed” cases contribute to transmission. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4mqZvCUtxGg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The number of leprosy cases in the U.S. has more than doubled over the past decade, and Florida has become a hot spot for it.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How do you recognize it?</h2>
<p>Leprosy primarily affects the skin and peripheral nervous system, causing physical deformity and desensitizing one’s ability to feel pain on affected skin. </p>
<p>It may begin with loss of sensation on whitish patches of skin or reddened skin. As the bacteria spread in the skin, they can cause the skin to thicken with or without nodules. If this occurs on a person’s face, it may rarely produce a smooth, attractive-appearing facial contour known as lepra bonita, or “pretty leprosy.” The disease can progress to causing eyebrow loss, enlarged nerves in the neck, nasal deformities and nerve damage. </p>
<p>The onset of symptoms can sometimes take <a href="https://doi.org/10.1128%2FCMR.00079-13">as long as 20 years</a> because the infectious bacteria have a lengthy incubation period and proliferate slowly in the human body. So presumably many people are infected long before they know that they are.</p>
<p>Fortunately, worldwide efforts to screen for leprosy are being enhanced thanks to organizations like the <a href="https://www.st-lazarus.us/">Order of Saint Lazarus</a>, which was originally founded in the 11th century to combat leprosy, and the <a href="https://ahri.gov.et/">Armauer Hansen Research Institute</a>, which conducts immunologic, epidemiological and translational research in Ethiopia. The nongovernmental organization <a href="https://www.bombayleprosy.org/">Bombay Leprosy Project</a> in India does the same.</p>
<h2>How treatable is it?</h2>
<p>Leprosy is not only preventable but treatable. Defying stigma and advancing early diagnosis via proactive measures are critical to the mission of controlling and eradicating it worldwide. </p>
<p>Notably, the World Health Organization and other agencies provide <a href="https://doi.org/10.25259/ijdvl_278_2023">multi-drug therapy</a> at no cost to patients. </p>
<p>In addition, vaccine technology to combat leprosy is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.12.050">in the clinical trials stage</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acsinfecdis.3c00371">could become available</a> in coming years. In studies involving nine-banded armadillos, this protein-based vaccine delayed or diminished leprous nerve damage and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41541-018-0050-z">kept bacteria at bay</a>. Researchers believe that the vaccine can be produced in a low-cost, highly efficient manner, with the long-term prospect of eradicating leprosy.</p>
<p>If health care professionals, biomedical researchers and lawmakers do not markedly enhance their efforts to eliminate leprosy worldwide, the disease will continue to spread and could become a far more serious problem in areas that have been largely free of leprosy for decades. </p>
<p>The World Health Organization launched a plan in 2021 for achieving <a href="https://iris.who.int/bitstream/handle/10665/340774/9789290228509-eng.pdf?sequence=1">zero leprosy</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221836/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Prof. Robert A. Schwartz is associated with the Order of Saint Lazarus, an international non-governmental organization committed to the fight against leprosy.</span></em></p>People often think of leprosy as a bygone disease, relevant primarily in biblical times. But in fact, it is still present in more than 120 countries, and the US is seeing an uptick in cases.Robert A. Schwartz, Professor and Head of Dermatology, Rutgers New Jersey Medical School, Rutgers UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2252572024-03-13T00:02:52Z2024-03-13T00:02:52ZSurviving fishing gear entanglement isn’t enough for endangered right whales – females still don’t breed afterward<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581023/original/file-20240311-30-7n1k5g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C7%2C5240%2C3936&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Endangered North Atlantic right whale Snow Cone, entangled in fishing rope, with her newborn calf off Georgia in 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/WhaleEntanglement/e4dd953df8dc4ff8a1df41f310d9abda/photo">Georgia Department of Natural Resources/NOAA Permit #21731, via AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It sounds like a crime show episode at sea: In late January 2024, federal regulators learned that a dead female North Atlantic right whale had been sighted near Martha’s Vineyard, Massachusetts. The whale was towed to shore, where more than 20 U.S. and Canadian scientists converged to perform a <a href="https://www.acvp.org/page/Necropsy">necropsy</a>, or animal autopsy. </p>
<p>On Feb. 14, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced that the whale was #5120 in a <a href="https://rwcatalog.neaq.org/#/">catalog that tracks individual right whales</a>. Further, the agency said, rope that had been deeply embedded in the whale’s tail had likely come from <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/national/endangered-species-conservation/north-atlantic-right-whale-updates">lobster fishing gear in Maine</a>. </p>
<p>Entanglement in fishing gear is a deadly threat to these <a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/41712/178589687">critically endangered animals</a>. Scientists estimate that before commercial whaling scaled up in the 18th and 19th centuries, there may have been as many as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12664">10,000 North Atlantic right whales</a>. Today, fewer than 360 individuals remain. <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/meps09923">Almost 90% of them</a> have been entangled at least once. </p>
<p>When whales become entangled in fishing gear, they use extra energy dragging it as they swim. If the rope is caught around their mouths, they may struggle to feed and slowly starve. Ropes wrapped around whales’ bodies, flippers or tails can cut into the animals’ skin and become <a href="https://theconversation.com/high-tech-fishing-gear-could-help-save-critically-endangered-right-whales-115974">deeply embedded in their flesh</a>, as happened to whale #5120. This can cause infections, chronic emaciation and damage to whales’ blubber, muscle, bone and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/baleen-whale">baleen – the bristly structures in their mouths</a> that they use to filter prey from the water.</p>
<p>North Atlantic right whales are legally protected, both internationally and in U.S. waters, including policies that seek to reduce deaths or serious injuries resulting from entanglements. However, even when entanglement does not kill a whale, it can affect individuals’ ability to reproduce, which is critically important for a species with such low numbers. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ylQ5q7Ivs2o?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Rescuers successfully remove more than 450 feet (137 meters) of rope and a 135-pound (60-kilogram) trap from an entangled North Atlantic right whale at sea.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In a newly published study, we show that even entanglements scientists classify as minor have <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2024.0314">devastating impacts on female right whales</a> and that, surprisingly, potential mothers who suffer “minor” entanglements have the lowest chance of starting to breed. As researchers with expertise in <a href="https://scholar.google.com.au/citations?user=8zoJjzcAAAAJ&hl=en">marine</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=8isVxjsAAAAJ&hl=en">biology</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com.au/citations?user=CDxPUIEAAAAJ&hl=en">ecology</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=P9JQOi8AAAAJ&hl=en">statistics</a>, we believe our findings underline the urgent need for ropeless fishing gear that can reduce threats to the survival of this species.</p>
<h2>Smaller females are having fewer young</h2>
<p>Understanding reproductive patterns is essential for supporting species that are critically endangered. North Atlantic right whales historically started breeding by around 9 years of age and gave birth to a single calf every <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2018.00530">three to four years</a> thereafter for several decades. </p>
<p>Today, however, many females have yet to reproduce at all. Moreover, those that have successfully produced calves now don’t produce another calf for <a href="https://www.narwc.org/uploads/1/1/6/6/116623219/2022reportcardfinal.pdf">more than seven years on average</a>. </p>
<p>As we showed in a 2022 study, after an encouraging North Atlantic right whale population recovery from the 1970s through the early 2000s, the number of reproductively mature female right whales <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.994481">declined from 2014 onward</a>. By 2018 there were only about 73 breeding females left, representing roughly half of all females and a sixth of the entire species.</p>
<p>Other research has shown that <a href="https://doi.org/10.3354/meps13299">poor health and physical condition</a> are making it harder for these females to even start breeding. Since the early 1980s, North Atlantic right whales have literally shrunk: Adults have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2021.04.067">shorter bodies</a> than they did several decades ago. This trend is associated with entanglements in fishing gear. As is true for all mammals, decreasing female body size <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.240050">reduces the likelihood of reproducing</a>. Smaller whales have fewer calves.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581026/original/file-20240311-22-t5wyed.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Infographic showing North Atlantic right whale population trends" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581026/original/file-20240311-22-t5wyed.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581026/original/file-20240311-22-t5wyed.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581026/original/file-20240311-22-t5wyed.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581026/original/file-20240311-22-t5wyed.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581026/original/file-20240311-22-t5wyed.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581026/original/file-20240311-22-t5wyed.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581026/original/file-20240311-22-t5wyed.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">North Atlantic right whales have been listed as endangered since 1970. Approximately 360 individuals remain, including around 70 reproductively active females.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/species/north-atlantic-right-whale">NOAA Fisheries</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Low calving rates are a <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/feature-story/flying-high-save-north-atlantic-right-whales">significant factor in North Atlantic right whales’ decline</a>, so it is important to understand what causes them. Many organizations are involved in <a href="https://whalemap.org/">tracking North Atlantic right whales</a>, including <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/species/north-atlantic-right-whale/science">government agencies</a>, <a href="https://www.neaq.org/animal/right-whales/">aquariums</a> and <a href="https://coastalstudies.org/right-whale-research/population-monitoring/">conservation groups</a>. Photos taken from the air enable researchers to identify individuals and so monitor whale population trends, births and deaths, ocean habitat use patterns, health and rates of scarring from entanglements and collisions with ships.</p>
<p>Our new study found that female right whales who have experienced even a minor entanglement before reaching sexual maturity may not ever start to breed. Even females who have previously reproduced are less likely to breed again following an entanglement event.</p>
<p>We determined this by using a mathematical model to incorporate information on the identity of individual whales, derived from photographs of <a href="https://www.neaq.org/conservation-and-research/anderson-cabot-center-for-ocean-life/identifying-right-whales/">natural markings known as callosities</a> on the whales’ heads. By identifying and photographing whales repeatedly over time, scientists can estimate different stages of their life, such as when females give birth. </p>
<h2>Weakness of current regulations</h2>
<p>Researchers categorize the severity of injuries that result from entanglements as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12590">minor, moderate or severe</a>. The scientists who manage the right whale catalog classify scars or injuries on the skin as minor if they are smaller than 0.8 inches (2 centimeters) without entering the blubber. If they are larger and enter the blubber, they are classified as moderate. Injuries that extend deep into the muscle or bone are categorized as severe.</p>
<p>Our research makes it clear that such value-laden terms are potentially misleading because even minor entanglements can threaten whales’ successful reproduction.</p>
<p>Multiple laws ostensibly protect North Atlantic right whales, including the U.S. <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/topic/laws-policies/endangered-species-act">Endangered Species Act</a> and <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/topic/laws-policies/marine-mammal-protection-act">Marine Mammal Protection Act</a>, and Canada’s <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/s-15.3/">Species at Risk Act</a>. In our view, these measures do not give enough weight to preventing all types of entanglements, regardless of severity.</p>
<p>Under the Marine Mammal Protection Act, the NOAA develops and implements conservation plans and so-called Take Reduction Plans, which are designed to minimize wildlife deaths and serious injury resulting from commercial fishing gear.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/new-england-mid-atlantic/marine-mammal-protection/atlantic-large-whale-take-reduction-plan">Atlantic Large Whale Take Reduction Plan</a>, developed in 1997, requires fishers to use <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/new-england-mid-atlantic/marine-mammal-protection/approved-weak-inserts-atlantic-large-whale-take">weak links</a>, with a maximum breaking strength of 1,700 pounds (771 kilograms), to connect lobster and crab pots to buoys on the surface. These links are intended to break when whales swim into them, so that the whales do not become entangled and weighted down by ropes and traps. </p>
<p>The plan also requires fishers to use heavy ground lines to connect multiple traps or pots. These lines are designed to sink to the bottom rather than floating in the water column. And the plan closes trap fishing areas seasonally when whales are known to be present in those zones. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/OGBjNL-8ac0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">U.S. and Canadian regulators are considering requiring ‘ropeless’ lobster and crab fishing gear in zones where right whales are present.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Coming back from the brink</h2>
<p>Current population estimates suggest that the numbers of North Atlantic right whales <a href="https://www.neaq.org/right-whale-population-estimates-indicate-slowing-decline-scientists-highlight-threats-to-species/">could be stabilizing</a>, meaning that the number of deaths is approximately equal to the number being born. While these estimates seem promising, females need to start and continue producing calves to increase whales’ numbers. </p>
<p>From our work, it is very clear that both lethal and sublethal impacts of entanglements are of grave concern for these whales. As we see it, eliminating entanglement, not mitigating it, is the only way to avoid the extinction of this species. Every entanglement, whatever its severity, is bad news for the whales.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225257/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leslie New receives funding from the U.S. Office of Naval Research and the National Science Foundation. She also is a member of the International Whaling Commission Scientific Committee.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Corkeron consults for Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility on right whale conservation issues. He headed the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's large whale research program for the northeastern US from 2011 to 2019, then led the New England Aquarium's right whale research program through 2022.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob Harcourt receives funding from the Australian Federal Government Department of Climate Change, Environment, Energy and Water for research on right whales. He was a member of the National Marine Mammal Scientific Committee </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Reed does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Even when female North Atlantic right whales survive entanglement in fishing gear, it may affect their future ability to breed, increasing the pressure on this critically endangered species.Joshua Reed, Research Associate in Biology, Macquarie UniversityLeslie New, Assistant Professor of Statistics, Ursinus CollegePeter Corkeron, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Planetary Health and Food Security, Griffith UniversityRob Harcourt, Professor of Marine Ecology, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2241132024-03-12T18:55:13Z2024-03-12T18:55:13ZSolar eclipses result from a fantastic celestial coincidence of scale and distance<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580531/original/file-20240307-28-al4bnq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=23%2C15%2C5247%2C3690&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Solar eclipses happen because of a few factors, including the Moon's size and distance from the Sun. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/EclipseKentucky/8b202fc6981149ebb1c59158d49e348d/photo?Query=eclipse&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=478&digitizationType=Digitized&currentItemNo=7&vs=true&vs=true">AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On April 8, 2024, millions across the U.S. will have the once-in-a-lifetime chance to view a total solar eclipse. <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/eclipses/future-eclipses/eclipse-2024/where-when/">Cities including</a> Austin, Texas; Buffalo, New York; and Cleveland, Ohio, will have a direct view of this rare cosmic event that lasts for just a few hours.</p>
<p>While <a href="https://theconversation.com/astro-tourism-chasing-eclipses-meteor-showers-and-elusive-dark-skies-from-earth-207969">you can see many astronomical events</a>, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/comets-101-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-snow-cones-of-space-213342">comets</a> and meteor showers, from anywhere on Earth, eclipses are different. You need to travel to what’s called the <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-the-sun-goes-dark-5-questions-answered-about-the-solar-eclipse-81308">path of totality</a> to experience the full eclipse. Only certain places get an eclipse’s full show, and that’s because of scale. </p>
<p>The relatively small <a href="https://www.space.com/18135-how-big-is-the-moon.html">size of the Moon</a> and its shadow make eclipses truly once-in-a-lifetime opportunities. On average, total solar eclipses are visible somewhere on Earth once every few years. But from any one location on Earth, <a href="https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcirc/SEcirc.html">it is roughly 375 years</a> between solar eclipses.</p>
<p><a href="https://science.psu.edu/astro/people/cxp137">I’m an astronomer</a>, but I have never seen a total solar eclipse, so I plan to drive to Erie, Pennsylvania, in the path of totality, for this one. This is one of the <a href="https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEmap/SEmapNA/TSENorAm2051.gif">few chances I have</a> to see a total eclipse without making a much more expensive <a href="https://theconversation.com/astro-tourism-chasing-eclipses-meteor-showers-and-elusive-dark-skies-from-earth-207969">trip to someplace more remote</a>. Many people have asked me why nearby eclipses are so rare, and the answer is related to the size of the Moon and its distance from the Sun.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/fmtGqOxxmEU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Those in the path of totality will have the opportunity to see a total solar eclipse this April.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Size and scale</h2>
<p>You can observe a solar eclipse when the Moon passes in front of the Sun, blocking some or all of the Sun from view. For people on Earth to be able to see an eclipse, the Moon, while orbiting around the Earth, must lie exactly along the observer’s line of sight with the Sun. Only some observers will see an eclipse, though, because not everyone’s view of the Sun will be blocked by the Moon on the day of an eclipse. </p>
<p>The fact that solar eclipses happen at all is a bit of a numerical coincidence. It just so happens <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/sun/facts/#hds-sidebar-nav-3">that the Sun</a> is approximately 400 times <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/moon/facts/#hds-sidebar-nav-3">larger than the Moon</a> and also 400 times more distant from the Earth. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581049/original/file-20240311-22-9ovtoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A photo showing the Earth next to the Moon. The Earth is much larger." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581049/original/file-20240311-22-9ovtoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581049/original/file-20240311-22-9ovtoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581049/original/file-20240311-22-9ovtoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581049/original/file-20240311-22-9ovtoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581049/original/file-20240311-22-9ovtoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581049/original/file-20240311-22-9ovtoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581049/original/file-20240311-22-9ovtoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Earth’s size compared with the Moon. Distances not to scale.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/the-earth-and-moon-to-scale-royalty-free-image/136247709?phrase=earth+moon+size+comparison&adppopup=true">Laara Cerman/Leigh Righton/Stockbyte via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So, even though the Moon is much smaller <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/sun/facts/">than the Sun</a>, it is just close enough to Earth to appear the same size as the Sun when seen from Earth. </p>
<p>For example, your pinky finger is much, much smaller than the Sun, but if you hold it up at arm’s length, it appears to your eye to be large enough to block out the Sun. The Moon can do the same thing – it can block out the Sun if it’s lined up perfectly with the Sun from your point of view. </p>
<h2>Path of totality</h2>
<p>When the Earth, Moon and Sun line up perfectly, the Moon <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system/skywatching/eclipses/solar-eclipses/2024-solar-eclipse/total-solar-eclipse-2024-the-moons-moment-in-the-sun/">casts a shadow onto the Earth</a>. Since the Moon is round, its shadow is round as it lands on Earth. The only people who see the eclipse are those in the area on Earth where the shadow lands at a given moment. </p>
<p>The Moon is continuously orbiting around the Earth, so as time goes on during the eclipse, the Moon’s shadow moves over the face of the Earth. Its shadow ends up looking like a thick line that can cover hundreds of miles in length. Astronomers call that line the <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system/skywatching/eclipses/new-nasa-map-details-2023-and-2024-solar-eclipses-in-the-us/">path of totality</a>. </p>
<p>From any given location along the path of totality, an observer can see the Sun completely eclipsed for a few minutes. Then, the shadow moves away from that location and the Sun slowly becomes more and more visible. </p>
<h2>A tilted orbit</h2>
<p>Solar eclipses don’t happen every single time the Moon passes in between Earth and the Sun. If that were the case, there would be a solar eclipse every month. </p>
<p>If you could float above the Earth’s North Pole and see the Moon’s orbit from above, you would see the Moon line up with the Sun once every time it orbits around the Earth, which is approximately once per month. From this high point of view, it looks like the Moon’s shadow should land on Earth every orbit. </p>
<p>However, if you could shift your perspective to look at the Moon’s orbit from the orbital plane, you would see that the Moon’s orbit is <a href="https://moon.nasa.gov/moon-in-motion/phases-eclipses-supermoons/overview/">tilted by about 5 degrees</a> compared with Earth’s orbit around the Sun. This tilt means that sometimes the Moon is too high and its shadow passes above the Earth, and sometimes the Moon is too low and its shadow passes below the Earth. An eclipse happens only <a href="https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4324/">when the Moon is positioned just right</a> and its shadow lands on the Earth. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/JplGhSC-eGM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">There isn’t an eclipse every time the Moon passes in front of the Sun because of the Moon’s tilted orbit around Earth.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As time goes on, the Earth and the Moon continue spinning, and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JplGhSC-eGM">eventually the Moon aligns with Earth’s orbit</a> around the Sun at the same moment the Moon passes between the Sun and the Earth. </p>
<p>While only certain cities are in the path of totality for this April’s eclipse, the entire U.S. is still close enough to this path that observers outside of the path of totality will see a <a href="https://nso.edu/for-public/eclipse-map-2024">partial eclipse</a>. In those locations, the Moon will appear to pass in front of part of the Sun, leaving a crescent shape of the Sun still visible at the moment of maximum eclipse.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224113/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Palma does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many people will see a dazzling eclipse this April, but these events are possible only because of the sizes and precise distances between Earth, the Moon and the Sun.Christopher Palma, Teaching Professor, Department of Astronomy & Astrophysics, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2213812024-03-12T17:44:46Z2024-03-12T17:44:46ZTotal solar eclipses, while stunning, can damage your eyes if viewed without the right protection<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580528/original/file-20240307-30-bxdz7t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=47%2C6%2C4468%2C2383&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Solar eclipses don't come around often, but make sure to view these rare events with eclipse glasses to protect your vision. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/USEclipseSchools/0f2e25e7620440c0be042b6516d1acde/photo?Query=eclipse%20viewing&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=524&digitizationType=Digitized&currentItemNo=18&vs=true&vs=true">AP Photo/Charlie Riedel</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On April 8, 2024, and for the second time in the past decade, people in the U.S. will have an opportunity to <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/eclipses/future-eclipses/eclipse-2024/">view a total solar eclipse</a>. But to do so safely, you’ll need to <a href="https://preventblindness.org/get-ready-for-the-next-eclipse/">wear proper protection</a>, or risk eye damage.</p>
<p>Earth is the only planet in our solar system where <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-the-sun-goes-dark-5-questions-answered-about-the-solar-eclipse-81308">solar eclipses can occur</a>. During these celestial events, the Moon passes between our planet and the Sun, blocking the Sun and casting a shadow over the Earth. Total eclipses rarely happen multiple times in the same region of a country during one’s lifetime. </p>
<p>The path of totality for <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/eclipses/">this spring’s eclipse</a>, where you can view the total eclipse, will extend over a 100-mile path that crosses through Mexico, Texas, New England and eastern Canada.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/fmtGqOxxmEU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Those in the path of totality will have the opportunity to see a total solar eclipse this April.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As excitement for the celestial show grows across the country, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2024/03/09/11-ways-to-find-your-last-minute-hotel-for-the-total-solar-eclipse---but-be-quick/?sh=415b5585f4e2">hotels in the path of totality</a> have been booked up by eclipse enthusiasts. Museums and schools have <a href="https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/embeddable-eclipse-events/">planned viewing events</a>, and researchers have developed technology for the <a href="https://astrolab.fas.harvard.edu/LightSound.html">visually impaired and those with hearing loss</a> so more people have the opportunity to experience the eclipse.</p>
<p>Seeing an eclipse is a rare and special opportunity, but <a href="https://directory.hsc.wvu.edu/Profile/28506">as an ophthalmologist</a>, I know that looking directly at the Sun, even for a few moments, can severely damage your eyes. With a few easy precautions, eclipse viewers can protect themselves from severe and irreparable eye damage and vision loss.</p>
<h2>Safe eclipse viewing</h2>
<p>This year’s eclipse will unfold over a 75-minute period, from the moment the Moon starts to partially block the Sun until it completely moves away from it again. </p>
<p>During the partial eclipse period, when the Moon is partly blocking the Sun, you should never look directly at the Sun nor through binoculars, <a href="https://www.masterclass.com/articles/how-to-photograph-a-solar-eclipse">cameras</a> or <a href="https://www.space.com/how-to-photograph-a-solar-eclipse-with-a-smartphone">cellphones</a>. Sunglasses, photographic filters, exposed color film and welding glasses will dim the sunlight, but these items do not prevent <a href="https://www.aao.org/eye-health/tips-prevention/solar-eclipse-eye-safety">eye damage from the Sun’s very intense light rays</a>. </p>
<p>Only <a href="https://preventblindness.org/solar-eclipse-glasses/">solar eclipse glasses</a> with filters designed specifically for observing the partial eclipse are safe to use. They are easily available <a href="https://www.cnn.com/cnn-underscored/outdoors/best-solar-eclipse-glasses?cid=ios_app">from a variety of sources</a>, and you can wear them by themselves or over your glasses or contact lenses. </p>
<p>Keep in mind that these safety filters will permit you to view only the eclipse, as they blacken out everything around you but the Sun itself. Before purchasing a pair, make sure your eclipse glasses are approved by the <a href="https://eclipse.aas.org/eye-safety/iso-certification">ISO 12312-2 international standard</a>.</p>
<p>Only during its <a href="https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEhelp/SEglossary.html">period of totality</a>, the time when the Sun is fully behind the Moon, is it safe to remove your filtered glasses – and then only with caution.</p>
<p>This year, totality will last an unusually long <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/eclipses/future-eclipses/eclipse-2024/">four and a half minutes</a>. If you leave your eclipse glasses on, you will miss seeing the Sun’s bright ring, or corona, behind the Moon. But then, as the Moon moves on, the sky will brighten and you’ll need to put the eclipse glasses back on.</p>
<h2>Eyes and light</h2>
<p>While the pupils of our eyes naturally constrict to limit bright light, and our eyes have pigments to absorb light, direct sunlight overwhelms these functions. Even viewing the Sun for a few brief moments <a href="https://theconversation.com/turn-around-bright-eyes-heres-how-to-see-the-eclipse-and-protect-your-vision-203571">can cause permanent vision loss</a>. </p>
<p>The Sun emits intense <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/sunlight-solar-radiation">ultraviolet and infrared light</a>, which, while not visible to the human eye, can burn sensitive ocular tissues, such as the cornea and retina.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581353/original/file-20240312-24-e55u1i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A diagram of an eye as viewed from the side." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581353/original/file-20240312-24-e55u1i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581353/original/file-20240312-24-e55u1i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581353/original/file-20240312-24-e55u1i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581353/original/file-20240312-24-e55u1i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581353/original/file-20240312-24-e55u1i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=611&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581353/original/file-20240312-24-e55u1i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=611&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581353/original/file-20240312-24-e55u1i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=611&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The cornea is the clear front surface of the eye, which lets light in. The retina is the inner lining of the back part of the eye, which sends signals to your brain, allowing you to see.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://aapos.org/glossary/how-to-safely-view-a-solar-eclipse">American Association for Pediatric Ophthalmology and Strabismus</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Corneal damage from sunlight, called <a href="https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/actinic-keratosis/symptoms-causes/syc-20354969">solar keratosis</a>, can blur vision and be quite painful. While the cornea can heal itself, it may require several days to get better and lead to lost time at work or school. </p>
<p>Retinal damage, called <a href="https://www.health.wa.gov.au/Articles/S_T/Solar-retinopathy">solar retinopathy</a>, occurs inside the eye. While it isn’t painful, it can be more severe than corneal damage and can dramatically impair vision. Solar retinopathy symptoms include a blind spot in one’s central vision, visual distortions and altered color vision. </p>
<p>In mild cases, these symptoms may go away, but in more severe cases, and even with treatment, <a href="https://aapos.org/glossary/how-to-safely-view-a-solar-eclipse">they may become permanent</a>. </p>
<p>To both enjoy the eclipse and prevent eye damage, make sure you and your loved ones all view the event with strict proper precautions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221381/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geoffrey Bradford does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Now’s the time to get your hands on a pair of eclipse glasses in preparation for April’s display of celestial wonder.Geoffrey Bradford, Professor of Pediatrics and Ophthalmology, West Virginia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2226802024-03-12T12:32:40Z2024-03-12T12:32:40ZClimate change matters to more and more people – and could be a deciding factor in the 2024 election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581053/original/file-20240311-20-u3utg3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Young people demonstrate ahead of a climate summit in New York in September 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/participants-seen-holding-signs-at-the-protest-ahead-of-the-news-photo/1675097127?adppopup=true">Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you ask American voters what their top issues are, <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/one-year-election-day-republicans-perceived-better-handling-economy">most will point</a> to kitchen-table issues like the economy, inflation, crime, health care or education. </p>
<p>Fewer than 5% of respondents in <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/Most-Important-Problem.aspx">2023 and 2024 Gallup surveys</a> said that climate change was the most important problem facing the country. </p>
<p>Despite this, research <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.10494414">that I conducted with my colleages</a> suggests that concern about climate change has had a significant effect on voters’ choices in the past two presidential elections. Climate change opinions may even have had a large enough effect to change the 2020 election outcome in President Joe Biden’s favor. This was the conclusion of <a href="https://zenodo.org/records/10494414">an analysis</a> of polling data that we published on Jan. 17, 2024, through the University of Colorado’s <a href="https://cires.colorado.edu/centers/center-social-and-environmental-futures-c-sef">Center for Social and Environmental Futures</a>. </p>
<p>What explains these results, and what effect might climate change have on the 2024 election?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Joe Biden wears a blue suit and stands on a stage in front of a screen that says 'historic climate action.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Joe Biden speaks about his administration’s work to combat climate change on Nov. 14, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-arrives-to-speak-about-his-news-photo/1782480738?adppopup=true">Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Measuring climate change’s effect on elections</h2>
<p>We used 2016 and 2020 survey data from the nonpartisan organization <a href="https://www.voterstudygroup.org/data">Voter Study Group</a> to analyze the relationships between thousands of voters’ presidential picks in the past two elections with their demographics and their opinions on 22 different issues, including climate change. </p>
<p>The survey asked voters to rate climate change’s importance with four options: “unimportant,” “not very important,” “somewhat important” or “very important.” </p>
<p>In 2020, 67% of voters rated climate change as “somewhat important” or “very important,” up from 62% in 2016. Of these voters rating climate change as important, 77% supported Biden in 2020, up from 69% who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016. This suggests that climate change opinion has been providing the Democrats with a growing electoral advantage. </p>
<p>Using two different statistical models, we estimated that climate change opinion could have shifted the 2020 national popular vote margin (Democratic vote share minus Republican vote share) by 3% or more toward Biden. Using an Electoral College model, we estimated that a 3% shift would have been large enough to change the election outcome in his favor.</p>
<p>These patterns echo the results of a <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/one-year-election-day-republicans-perceived-better-handling-economy">November 2023 poll</a>. This poll found that more voters trust the Democrats’ approach to climate change, compared to Republicans’ approach to the issue.</p>
<h2>What might explain the effect of climate change on voting</h2>
<p>So, if most voters – <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/Most-Important-Problem.aspx">even Democrats</a> – do not rank climate change as their top issue, how could climate change opinion have tipped the 2020 presidential election? </p>
<p>Our analysis could not answer this question directly, but here are three educated guesses:</p>
<p>First, recent presidential elections have been extremely close. This means that climate change opinion would not need to have a very large effect on voting to change election outcomes. In 2020, Biden <a href="https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020">won Georgia</a> by about 10,000 votes – 0.2% of the votes cast – and he won Wisconsin by about 20,000 votes, 0.6% of votes cast. </p>
<p>Second, candidates who deny that climate change is real or a problem might turn off some moderate swing voters, even if climate change was not those voters’ top issue. The scientific evidence for climate change being real <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966">is so strong</a> that if a candidate were to deny the basic science of climate change, some moderate voters might wonder whether to trust that candidate in general. </p>
<p>Third, some voters may be starting to see the connections between climate change and the kitchen-table issues that they consider to be higher priorities than climate change. For example, <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/">there is strong evidence</a> that climate change affects health, national security, the economy and immigration patterns in the U.S. and around the world. </p>
<h2>Where the candidates stand</h2>
<p>Biden and former President Donald Trump have very different records on climate change and approaches to the environment. </p>
<p>Trump <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-presidential-candidates-stand-climate-change/story?id=103313379">has previously called</a> climate change a “hoax.”</p>
<p>In 2017, Trump <a href="https://2017-2021.state.gov/on-the-u-s-withdrawal-from-the-paris-agreement/">withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement</a>, an international treaty that legally commits countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-officially-rejoins-the-paris-agreement/">Biden reversed</a> that decision in 2021.</p>
<p>While in office, Trump rolled back <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/climate-environment/trump-climate-environment-protections/">125 environmental rules and policies</a> aimed at protecting the country’s air, water, land and wildlife, arguing that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/climate/trump-environment-rollbacks-list.html">these regulations hurt</a> businesses.</p>
<p>Biden has restored <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/biden-restores-federal-environmental-regulations-scaled-back-by-trump">many of these regulations</a>. He has also added several new rules and regulations, including a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/climate/sec-climate-disclosure-regulations.html">requirement for businesses</a> to publicly disclose their greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>Biden has <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684">also signed</a> <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/4346">three major</a> laws that <a href="https://rmi.org/climate-innovation-investment-and-industrial-policy/">each provides</a> tens of <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376/text">billions in annual spending</a> to address climate change. Two of those laws were bipartisan.</p>
<p>On the other hand, the U.S. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/27/climate/biden-climate-campaign.html">has also become</a> the world’s largest producer of oil and gas, and the largest exporter of natural gas, during Biden’s term.</p>
<p>In the current campaign, Trump has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/second-trump-presidency-would-axe-biden-climate-agenda-gut-energy-regulators-2024-02-16/">promised to eliminate</a> subsidies for renewable energy and electric vehicles, to increase domestic fossil fuel production and to roll back environmental regulations. In practice, some of these efforts <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/20/more-republicans-now-want-climate-action-but-trump-could-derail-everything-00142313">could face opposition</a> from congressional Republicans, in addition to Democrats. </p>
<p>Public <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/27/climate/biden-climate-campaign.html">opinion varies</a> on particular <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/2900823/poll-pennsylvania-voters-reject-biden-lng-pause/">climate policies</a> that <a href="https://www.arcdigital.media/p/a-bipartisan-climate-playbook-is">Biden has enacted</a>. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, doing something about climate change remains much more popular than doing nothing. For example, a <a href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/climate-change-in-the-american-mind-politics-policy-fall-2023/toc/4/">November 2023 Yale survey</a> found 57% of voters would prefer a candidate who supports action on global warming over a candidate who opposes action. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large crowd of people march and wave banners and flags in front of the US Capitol building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People march from the U.S. Capitol to the White House protesting former President Donald Trump’s environmental policies in April 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-march-from-the-u-s-capitol-to-the-white-house-for-news-photo/674864930?adppopup=true">Astrid Riecken/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What this means for 2024</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.10494414">Our study</a> found that between the 2016 and the 2020 presidential elections, climate change became increasingly important to voters, and the importance voters assign to climate change became increasingly predictive of voting for the Democrats. If these trends continue, then climate change could provide the Democrats with an even larger electoral advantage in 2024.</p>
<p>Of course, this does not necessarily mean that the Democrats will win the 2024 election. For example, our study estimated that climate change gave the Democrats an advantage in 2016, and yet Trump still won that election because of other issues. Immigration <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/611135/immigration-surges-top-important-problem-list.aspx">is currently the top issue</a> for a plurality of voters, and <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/">recent national polls</a> suggest that Trump currently leads the 2024 presidential race over Biden. </p>
<p>Although a majority of voters currently prefer the Democrats’ climate stances, this need not always be true. For example, Democrats <a href="https://www.arcdigital.media/p/a-bipartisan-climate-playbook-is">risk losing voters</a> when their policies <a href="https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-iron-law-of-climate-policy">impose economic costs</a>, or when they are framed as <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/240725/democrats-positive-socialism-capitalism.aspx">anti-capitalist</a>, <a href="https://osf.io/tdkf3">racial</a>, or <a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-we-will-fight-climate-change">overly pessimistic</a>. Some Republican-backed climate policies, <a href="https://bipartisanpolicy.org/press-release/bpc-morning-consult-poll-finds-voters-support-permitting-reform-61-to-13/">like trying to speed up</a> renewable energy projects, are popular.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, if the election were held today, the totality of evidence suggests that most voters would prefer a climate-conscious candidate, and that most climate-conscious voters currently prefer a Democrat.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222680/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt Burgess receives funding from Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and the Bruce D. Benson Center for the Study of Western Civilization at the University of Colorado Boulder. </span></em></p>Research shows that climate change had a significant effect on voting choices in the 2016 and 2020 elections – and could also influence the 2024 presidential race.Matt Burgess, Assistant Professor of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado BoulderLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2250132024-03-12T12:31:57Z2024-03-12T12:31:57Z3 things to watch for in Russia’s presidential election – other than Putin’s win, that is<p>Russians will <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-presidential-election-who-what-when-2024-03-11/">vote in a presidential election</a> from March 15-17, 2024, and are all but <a href="https://apnews.com/rusia-putin-election-2024">guaranteed to hand Vladimir Putin a comfortable victory</a>, paving the way for him to remain in power until at least 2030. </p>
<p>While the result may be a foregone conclusion, the election offers an important glimpse into the Kremlin’s domestic challenges as it continues a war against Ukraine that <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-war-in-ukraine-enters-third-year-3-issues-could-decide-its-outcome-supplies-information-and-politics-220581">recently entered its third year</a>.</p>
<p>As an <a href="https://politics.wfu.edu/faculty-and-staff/adam-lenton/">expert on Russian politics</a>, I have identified three key developments worth paying attention to during and after the upcoming election. Yes, we already know Putin will win. But nonetheless, this election is the largest public test of the Russian state’s ability to shape its desired result at home since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.</p>
<h2>1. Don’t mention the war (too much)</h2>
<p>The 2024 election is taking place during the largest interstate conflict to take place this century.</p>
<p>With Russian domestic media and politics all but gutted of dissenting voices, the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/03/opinions/why-putin-wants-a-forever-war-galeotti/index.html">war has become</a> the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-war-ukraine-economy-policy-7428ef7b">organizing principle of post-2022 Russian politics</a>, shaping all major policies and decisions.</p>
<p>Yet, while the context of the war looms large, its role is largely implicit rather than occupying center stage. And for good reason: Banging the drums of war is not particularly popular.</p>
<p>In fact, the Kremlin’s strategy throughout the conflict has relied upon the general public’s acquiescence and disengagement from the war effort in exchange for <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/11/28/alternate-reality-how-russian-society-learned-to-stop-worrying-about-war-pub-91118">a degree of normalcy</a> at home. </p>
<p>Officially, the war remains euphemistically termed a “special military operation,” yet it is also frequently framed by Moscow <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/international/3874880-putin-says-ukraine-war-poses-existential-threat-to-russian-people/">as an existential struggle</a> for Russia and a <a href="https://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/comments/zapad-vedet-rukami-ukraintsev-voynu-s-rossiey-i-nazyvaet-eto-prekrasnoy-investitsiey/">proxy war</a> between Russia and the West.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman walks past a billboard with Russian words on and another will a soldier's head in a helmet depicted." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581084/original/file-20240311-30-jap2gg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581084/original/file-20240311-30-jap2gg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581084/original/file-20240311-30-jap2gg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581084/original/file-20240311-30-jap2gg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581084/original/file-20240311-30-jap2gg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581084/original/file-20240311-30-jap2gg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581084/original/file-20240311-30-jap2gg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A billboard promotes the upcoming Russian presidential election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/RussiaElection/44d797eb397e446684e1d02a8d485433/photo?Query=Putin&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=now-30d&totalCount=604&currentItemNo=0">AP Photo/Dmitri Lovetsky</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Unsurprisingly, perhaps, the Russian public <a href="https://www.levada.ru/2023/10/31/konflikt-s-ukrainoj-otsenki-oktyabrya2023-goda/">still doesn’t agree</a> on what its aims are. There <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/wartime-putinism">are relatively few</a> ardent supporters of the war, outweighed by a <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/world/in-russia-clear-signs-of-war-fatigue/">more general sense of fatigue</a> among the public. This is supported by survey data that shows that <a href="https://www.levada.ru/2024/03/05/konflikt-s-ukrainoj-massovye-otsenki-fevralya-2024-goda/">consistent majorities</a> in Russia would prefer to start peace talks – though this of course does not tell us what type of peace they prefer.</p>
<p>Yet the war is putting pressure on the government’s ability to juggle ensuring a disengaged population and bolstering support for a <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/90753">grinding war that demands unprecedented</a> resources.</p>
<p>Putin’s public communication in the buildup to the election reflects this tension. He announced his intention to run during an awkward, poorly staged interaction with an officer at a military award ceremony in December 2023. That choice <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91234">surprised some insiders</a>, who expected Putin to weave his announcement into a high-profile, choreographed event focusing on domestic achievements and not the ongoing war. </p>
<p>More recently, his state of the nation address on Feb. 29 <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91872">began and ended by lauding</a> the achievements of the war, yet the bulk of the address – the <a href="https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/65e069269a794724567533c5">longest of the 19</a> he has delivered since he first became president in 1999 – was devoted to a laundry list of achievements, programs and goals largely disconnected from the war itself.</p>
<h2>2. Pressure to deliver results for Putin</h2>
<p>While <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-autocrats-rig-elections-to-stay-in-power-and-get-away-with-it-95337">autocratic regimes like Russia’s have proved adept</a> at managing the electoral process to squeeze out rivals and mitigate against upsets, elections are still high-stakes events.</p>
<p>For officials, the election is a litmus test for their ability to muster administrative resources and deliver Putin an electoral windfall. Most <a href="https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/03/04/people-don-t-want-to-vote">reports suggest the Kremlin is hoping to engineer</a> that the turnout is at least 70%, with around 80% of the vote for Putin – which would <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/19/vladimir-putin-secures-record-win-in-russian-presidential-election">surpass his 76.7% share</a> from 2018.</p>
<p>For observers of Russian politics, what will be of interest is not the result itself, but how the result is produced during wartime conditions.</p>
<p>Take, for example, securing high turnout. One prominent tactic used by local officials in Russia is pressuring state employees and workers at state-owned corporations to turn up at the polls en masse.</p>
<p>But with the economy on a war footing, and with an <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-short-around-48-million-workers-2023-crunch-persist-izvestia-2023-12-24/">acute labor shortage</a>, it is unclear whether this tried and tested approach will work. Moreover, political disengagement and the certainty of a Putin victory means that interest in voting is at an <a href="https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/03/04/people-don-t-want-to-vote">all-time low</a>. For local officials, the pressure is on.</p>
<p>At the head of efforts to engineer the election is Sergey Kiriyenko, Putin’s <a href="https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/06/10/the-viceroy">technocratic domestic policy czar dubbed</a> “viceroy of the Donbas” due to his role administering the occupied territories of Ukraine. Recent <a href="https://vsquare.org/kremlin-leaks-putin-elections-russia-propaganda-ukraine/">leaked documents</a> obtained by the Estonian website Delfi reveal how Kiriyenko’s team spent over US$1 billion in “pre-rigging” the election, sponsoring creative content such as films, TV series and video games replete with pro-government and anti-Western messaging.</p>
<p>Of course, it’s hard to say in advance whether such efforts will directly bear fruit. But the scale of the Kremlin’s investment in shaping the broader ideological environment indicates a degree of uneasiness with the public’s disengagement.</p>
<p>There are also new technical regulations that will boost Putin’s vote. The election will be held across three days instead of one. Together with this, the <a href="https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2024/03/07/the-digital-steal-en">rollout of electronic voting</a>, first used in Moscow elections in 2019, will make it easier to maximize turnout. These changes also make it difficult for observers to monitor the degree of fraud.</p>
<p>Beyond these subtler forms of manipulation, however, there are also overtly coercive ways to ensure vote targets are met. This is particularly the case for the millions of Ukrainians <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/06/deportation-re-population-russia-occupied-ukraine-zaporizhzhia">currently under Russian occupation</a>, who are subject to intense pressure from the occupying authorities to acquire Russian citizenship and to vote.</p>
<h2>3. Silencing political opposition</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-putins-russia-the-death-of-navalny-has-left-the-opposition-demoralised-but-not-defeated-224303">death of longtime Putin critic Alexei Navalny</a> in February 2024 was a huge blow to the opposition but is representative of the state of political repression in Russia.</p>
<p>Since 2018, some <a href="https://www.proekt.media/en/guide-en/repressions-in-russia-study/">116,000 Russians have faced</a> political repression. Under such circumstances, the presidential election will be the least pluralistic in post-Soviet Russia, with only four candidates on the ballot box and no openly anti-war figures featured among them.</p>
<p>In previous elections, there has usually been a candidate from the so-called “liberal opposition.” For a while it <a href="https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/01/26/the-situation-took-a-wrong-turn">looked as though this trend might</a> continue in the form of independent Boris Nadezhdin, whose explicit anti-war program saw him <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/27/world/europe/russia-putin-election-boris-nadezhdin.html">gain unexpected traction</a> compared to other would-be candidates.</p>
<p>But by barring Nadezhdin from running, the Kremlin likely wished to avoid a repeat of 2018, when the Communist Party’s Pavel Grudinin <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2018/01/26/grudinin-russia-communist-party-gets-capitalist-makeover-lenin-sovkhoz-a60185">unexpectedly struck a chord</a> with voters for his down-to-earth populism. This forced state media to go into overdrive, turning the election into a mudslinging contest. </p>
<p>Yet the scale of public mourning for Navalny and the enthusiasm for Nadezhdin reveal that despite draconian wartime censorship and repression, there remains a <a href="https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/03/04/said-without-enthusiasm">sizable bloc of Russians eager</a> for authentic political alternatives.</p>
<p>For now, the closest candidate to an alternative appears to be <a href="https://www.russian-election-monitor.org/who-is-vladislav-davankov-a-new-hope-for-opposition-in-the-presidential-election.html">Vladislav Davankov</a> from the liberal-leaning party “New People,” who will likely draw votes from some of this anti-war constituency.</p>
<p>Indeed, the <a href="https://davankov2024.ru/program">first point on his manifesto</a> calls for “peace and negotiations,” though “on our own terms.” Fresh <a href="https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6552544">polling data</a> from state-owned VTsIOM suggests that he might well take second place.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225013/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Lenton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While Putin is all but guaranteed to win, war fatigue, electoral engineering and extreme risk-aversion suggest that the Kremlin is anxious to get these elections over and done with.Adam Lenton, Assistant Professor of Politics & International Affairs, Wake Forest UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2249412024-03-12T12:31:12Z2024-03-12T12:31:12ZPennsylvania overhauled its sentencing guidelines to be more fair and consistent − but racial disparities may not disappear so soon<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581063/original/file-20240311-28-gp310p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">According to the state's new guidelines, juvenile convictions that are 10 years or older should no longer be considered when determining a person's sentence.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/close-up-of-human-hand-with-handcuffs-royalty-free-image/1254827260">Seksan Mongkhonkhamsao via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Pennsylvania’s new <a href="https://pcs.la.psu.edu/guidelines-statutes/sentencing">sentencing guidelines</a> went into effect on Jan. 1, 2024. They mark the eighth iteration since the state first introduced such guidelines in 1982 and are perhaps the most comprehensive revision to date.</em></p>
<p><em>Since Philadelphia has by far the <a href="https://www.prisonpolicy.org/origin/pa/2020/county.html">largest share of incarcerated people</a> in the state, the new sentencing guidelines affect many Philadelphia residents.</em> </p>
<p><em>C. Clare Strange, an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=AbnZo6YAAAAJ&hl=en">assistant research professor</a> in the Department of Criminology and Justice Studies at Drexel University, is the <a href="https://nij.ojp.gov/funding/awards/15pnij-23-gg-01365-nijb">principal investigator in a study</a> that will evaluate the impacts of the new guidelines on racial and ethnic disparities in sentencing outcomes over the next five years. She spoke with The Conversation U.S. about how the guidelines have changed and what people with a criminal history in Philadelphia need to know about them.</em></p>
<h2>How do judges determine a person’s sentence?</h2>
<p>Pennsylvania uses what are known as <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/reports/2008/07/01/state-sentencing-guidelines-profiles-and-continuum">advisory sentencing guidelines</a>. This means that judges are required to consider what the state guidelines suggest a criminal sentence should be, but they are not required to comply with the guidelines. That’s different from other states <a href="https://robinainstitute.umn.edu/publications/sentencing-commissions-and-guidelines-numbers-cross-jurisdictional-comparisons-made">such as Minnesota and Oregon</a> that have mandatory sentencing guidelines. Meanwhile, a majority of U.S. states have <a href="https://www.uscourts.gov/federal-probation-journal/2017/09/state-sentencing-guidelines-garden-full-variety">no sentencing guidelines</a> at all. </p>
<p>In Pennsylvania, judges primarily consider what crime the person is charged with along with their prior record or criminal history. </p>
<p><a href="https://pcs.la.psu.edu/guidelines-statutes/sentencing/">A matrix</a> tells judges what the standard recommended sentencing range would be. Typically, judges sentence a defendant to a minimum term and then, after that minimum term, a parole board decides when it’s appropriate for the person to be released.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580258/original/file-20240306-26-859ax4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Pennsylvania's sentencing guidelines based on offense severity and criminal history." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580258/original/file-20240306-26-859ax4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580258/original/file-20240306-26-859ax4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=776&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580258/original/file-20240306-26-859ax4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=776&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580258/original/file-20240306-26-859ax4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=776&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580258/original/file-20240306-26-859ax4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=976&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580258/original/file-20240306-26-859ax4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=976&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580258/original/file-20240306-26-859ax4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=976&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pennsylvania’s 2024 sentencing guidelines matrix.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">PA Commission on Sentencing</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s new in the 2024 sentencing guidelines?</h2>
<p>A lot has changed. Probably the most significant change is re-weighting the two categories in the matrix — offense severity and criminal history. These categories are officially known as the Offense Gravity Score and the Prior Record Score. There are now fewer categories of criminal history and far more categories of offense severity. </p>
<p>The revised guidelines have more than double the number of categories for Offense Gravity Score, which aim to ensure that sentences better align with crime severity. This is important because there is less opportunity for disparities to come through when a sentencing recommendation is more specific and more consistent between similar types of crimes. </p>
<p>Changes to Prior Record Score calculations and categories aim to address racial disparities and refocus sentence recommendations on the current offense. Lapsing policies, for example, have been expanded to reduce the impact of criminal history on sentencing for less serious offenders. These can involve the removal of specific prior offenses from inclusion in the Prior Record Score calculation after a certain amount of time has passed or after the person has had an extended crime-free period. </p>
<h2>What’s the goal of the new guidelines?</h2>
<p>Pennsylvania’s sentencing guideline system was <a href="https://www.legis.state.pa.us/WU01/LI/LI/CT/HTM/42/00.021.054.000..HTM">mandated by the state legislature</a>. The guidelines themselves were created by the <a href="https://pcs.la.psu.edu/">Pennsylvania Commission on Sentencing</a> with the the goal of promoting fair and uniform decisions on the severity of people’s punishment. </p>
<p>The commission was not explicitly formed to reduce punishment. That said, it has taken explicit efforts to reduce disparities in punishment that are linked to race and ethnicity. </p>
<p>The commission has <a href="https://pcs.la.psu.edu/policy-administration/about-the-commission/members/">11 members</a> who are appointed by the state Legislature. The members are typically judges, legislators and other criminal justice professionals. These commission members provide direction and oversight and are unique from <a href="https://pcs.la.psu.edu/policy-administration/about-the-commission/staff/">commission staff</a>, who collect, analyze and monitor the sentencing data for the state.</p>
<h2>What’s been the reaction so far?</h2>
<p>Anytime there’s talk about reducing the impact of criminal history on punishment, people express a whole spectrum of beliefs. Not everybody has the same primary concern of reducing disparities. For example, some people prefer more tough-on-crime policies. As a legislative body, the commission answers to many different constituencies.</p>
<p>The new guidelines mirror the <a href="https://www.ussc.gov/guidelines">federal sentencing guidelines</a> in that there are many offense gravity categories. One critique I’ve heard is that the Offense Gravity Score now has too many categories and adjustments, and that this might complicate things such as plea negotiations. </p>
<p><a href="https://bja.ojp.gov/sites/g/files/xyckuh186/files/media/document/pleabargainingresearchsummary.pdf">About 95% of criminal cases</a> are settled in plea negotiation and never go to trial. Plea negotiations are a hidden interaction where the prosecution negotiates charges and punishments with defense attorneys and their clients in exchange for a plea of guilty or no contest. Having more Offense Gravity Score categories could lead to more complicated and slower plea negotiations.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581033/original/file-20240311-26-4fpfju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Philadelphia law enforcement officers stand together in front of church in downtown Philadelphia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581033/original/file-20240311-26-4fpfju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581033/original/file-20240311-26-4fpfju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581033/original/file-20240311-26-4fpfju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581033/original/file-20240311-26-4fpfju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581033/original/file-20240311-26-4fpfju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581033/original/file-20240311-26-4fpfju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581033/original/file-20240311-26-4fpfju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Racial disparities exist throughout the criminal justice process, from arrests and charges to sentencing and parole.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/PhiladelphiaOfficersShot/807f48dd90604210854a1a15d5e393e7">Joe Lamberti/AP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Will the guidelines reduce racial disparities in Pa.’s criminal justice system?</h2>
<p>National statistics show that, on average, a Black person is more likely than a white person to be <a href="http://www.doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-0858-1">stopped by police</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1098611117708791">to experience police use of force</a> when stopped, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0093854815628026">to be charged</a> when arrested, <a href="https://nij.ojp.gov/library/publications/opening-pandoras-box-how-does-defendant-race-influence-plea-bargaining">to receive more charges</a> when charged, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23367476">to receive a harsher sentence</a>, <a href="https://nij.ojp.gov/library/publications/opening-pandoras-box-how-does-defendant-race-influence-plea-bargaining">to be sentenced to confinement</a> and so on. It’s a cumulative disadvantage across the justice process. </p>
<p>These disparities occur within Pennsylvania, too. For example, a <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP70332.html">December 2023 analysis</a> by the <a href="https://www.rand.org/">Rand Corporation</a>, a nonprofit global policy think tank, looked at racial disparities within the criminal justice system in Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh and is Pennsylvania’s second-most populated county after Philadelphia. It found that significant racial disparities exist at each of the key stages of people’s encounter with the criminal justice system, from having charges filed against them to having their parole revoked.</p>
<p>Courts to some degree inherit disparities from police and prosecutor decision making, though the new guidelines may help to reduce them at later stages, such as sentencing.</p>
<p>Racial and ethnic disparities in sentencing are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190264079.013.241">widespread in the U.S.</a> and are almost never entirely explained by legally relevant factors such as type of crime committed or criminal history. So researchers like me explain this leftover variation as the “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23367476">race effect</a>,” or “race and ethnicity effect.” </p>
<p>Part of the commission’s charge is to collect and monitor data, which can be used by the state and other criminal justice researchers. Some states may lack the infrastructure to collect or monitor data to the degree that Pennsylvania does. </p>
<p>That’s where my project comes in. It is designed to use commission data so that at the end of the five years we can determine whether these changes to the guidelines had the intended impact on disparities – and if they didn’t, why not.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224941/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>C. Clare Strange receives funding from the National Institute of Justice (NIJ). </span></em></p>The new guidelines are not intended to reduce punishment but aim to reduce disparities in punishment that are linked to race and ethnicity.C. Clare Strange, Assistant Research Professor of Criminology and Justice Studies, Drexel UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2254342024-03-12T12:30:55Z2024-03-12T12:30:55ZYes, sexism among Republican voters helped sink Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580810/original/file-20240309-28-5iqh5e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C12%2C8194%2C5475&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump supporters drive by a rally for Nikki Haley on Feb.1, 2024, in Columbia, S.C. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/flag-festooned-truck-in-support-of-former-president-donald-news-photo/1978923483?adppopup=true">Brandon Bell/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Following multiple defeats in the Republican presidential primary, including in <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/25/politics/nikki-haley-south-carolina-loss/index.html">her home state</a> of South Carolina, Nikki Haley <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/us/politics/haley-out-speech-transcript.html">suspended her bid</a> for the Republican presidential nomination on March 6, 2024.</p>
<p>Barring unforeseen events, Donald Trump will be the GOP candidate in November’s election.</p>
<p>Haley’s failure to pose a more serious challenge to Trump may be puzzling to some. After all, she was <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/02/14/nikki-haley-2024-bio-what-you-need-to-know-00082742">a formidable candidate with notable political experience</a> in both federal and state government. She had outlasted prominent Republican officials, including <a href="https://apnews.com/article/ron-desantis-250c8ed4b49843350e258f0c2754c8ba">Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis</a>, former <a href="https://apnews.com/article/christie-presidential-race-5e974cfa407d39af878f066a71af35ad">New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie</a> and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/tim-scott-drops-out-2024-race-b9cc8fbeba57a123789d8d0484164e38#:%7E:text=COLUMBIA%2C%20S.C.%20(AP)%20%E2%80%94,in%20Iowa's%20leadoff%20GOP%20caucuses.">South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott</a>, in the GOP primary.</p>
<p>And Trump has serious political liabilities. Although he is wildly popular among Republican primary voters, Trump’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/us/politics/donald-trump-primary-wins.html">support is much weaker among likely general election voters</a>. Trump’s unpopularity served as <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/11/09/nation/vote-counting-drags-signs-trumpisms-drag-red-wave/">a drag on Republicans’ performance</a> in the 2018 midterm elections, likely cost him a winnable presidential election in 2020 and contributed to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/09/trump-candidates-underperform-2022/">Republicans’ underperformance in the 2022 midterms</a>.</p>
<p>He also faces indictments on <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/trump-charges-jan-6-classified-documents/">91 state and federal charges</a> ranging from plotting to overturn the 2020 election to withholding classified documents in his home in Florida. And observers, <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5107004/haley-targets-biden-trumps-age-vows-stay-race">including Haley</a>, have raised serious questions about his age, physical fitness and mental acuity.</p>
<p>Given her strengths and Trump’s vulnerabilities, why did Haley’s primary campaign fall flat? Of course, part of the reason is Trump’s unique appeal with Republican primary voters. Over the past eight years, Trump has forged a distinctive bond with his voters that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/16/politics/trump-supporters-indictments-mug-shot/index">leads them to overlook</a> his significant political weaknesses. </p>
<p>But sexism is also an important part of the explanation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Three people standing on a stage." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nikki Haley, left, outlasted many strong GOP primary candidates, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidates-former-u-n-ambassador-news-photo/1705066202?adppopup=true">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Trump’s history of sexism</h2>
<p>Back in 2016, Trump frequently <a href="https://www.npr.org/2016/10/23/498878356/sexism-is-out-in-the-open-in-the-2016-campaign-that-may-have-been-inevitable">made sexist remarks</a> directed at Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. He called her a “nasty woman,” said she does not have the “presidential look” and contended that Clinton was “playing the woman card.” </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/polq.12737">Research shows</a> that voters with more <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-018-9468-2">sexist</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfy003">attitudes</a> were more likely to support Trump in 2016. </p>
<p>Eight years later, Trump employed a similar sexist playbook, questioning Haley’s qualifications, commenting on her appearance, characterizing her as “<a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-ramps-attacks-overly-ambitious-haley-potential-2024-gop-rivals">overly ambitious</a>” and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/12/politics/nikki-haley-husband-trump-attack/index.html">mocking her</a> for having an absentee husband. Haley’s husband is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/04/us/politics/nikki-haley-husband-michael.html">in the South Carolina National Guard</a> and currently deployed overseas.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=OfgJBywAAAAJ&hl=en">We are</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=OsXHylAAAAAJ&hl=en">political</a> <a href="https://polsci.umass.edu/people/adam-eichen">scientists who</a> <a href="https://polsci.umass.edu/research/umass-poll">field and analyze public opinion</a> surveys to better understand Americans’ attitudes. Using evidence from our recent <a href="https://polsci.umass.edu/sites/default/files/January2024NationalPollAllToplines.pdf">national poll</a>, we can examine how sexism influenced Republicans’ preferences in the 2024 Republican primary. </p>
<p>We first asked Republican respondents whom they would favor in the Republican presidential primary. Next, we measured sexist attitudes by asking respondents a series of questions about their prejudice, resentment and animus toward women. These attitudes are collectively known as “<a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis/article/abs/optimizing-the-measurement-of-sexism-in-political-surveys/58A96CD10C45B2BFE66B585CAEB200F2">hostile sexism</a>.” We also collected information about Republicans’ demographic characteristics, political attitudes and beliefs about the economy.</p>
<p><iframe id="VMydQ" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/VMydQ/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Familiar foe of sexism in the electorate</h2>
<p>We find that individuals who supported Trump display much higher levels of sexism than those who favored Haley. Only 27% of Haley supporters agreed with the statement that “women seek to gain power by getting control over men,” but 38% of Trump voters agreed.</p>
<p>Likewise, when asked whether “women are too easily offended,” 52% of Trump supporters agreed, while 42% of those supporting Haley did so.</p>
<p>Finally, when provided with the prompt that “women exaggerate problems they have at work,” 37% of Trump voters agreed while only 25% of Haley voters expressed this view.</p>
<p>Next, we undertook an analysis that examined how sexist attitudes related to support for Trump relative to Haley, while taking into account demographic characteristics, political identities and views on the national economy.</p>
<p>This analysis confirmed that, even after taking into account these factors, individuals with more sexist attitudes were more likely to favor Trump over Haley.</p>
<p>In her challenge to Trump for the Republican presidential nomination, Haley, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/politics-and-gender/article/hostile-sexism-benevolent-sexism-and-american-elections/F47B3070DF5182CDE9EEBF2BE26E6FB9">like female candidates across the partisan divide</a>, contended with the familiar foe of sexism in the electorate. </p>
<p>While much is uncertain about the upcoming election, the nation will almost certainly continue to wait for its first female president.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225434/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Given her strengths and Donald Trump’s vulnerabilities, why did Nikki Haley fail to seriously challenge Trump’s dominant position in the GOP primaries? Sexism is part of the answer.Tatishe Nteta, Provost Professor of Political Science and Director of the UMass Amherst Poll, UMass AmherstAdam Eichen, PhD Student, Political Science, UMass AmherstJesse Rhodes, Associate Professor, Political Science, UMass AmherstLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2215532024-03-12T12:30:35Z2024-03-12T12:30:35ZGrowing secrecy limits government accountability<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580737/original/file-20240308-18-lpv6zj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C5599%2C3741&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">When government officials block access to information, the public suffers.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/white-collar-crime-businessman-not-wanting-his-royalty-free-image/171587971">fstop123/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When I started covering crime as a reporter for small newspapers in the 1980s, I was assigned to walk to the police department lobby each morning and look through all of the previous day’s police reports, clipped to a board on the counter, containing all the details laid out for anyone to see. We were able to report to the community each day on the major events in town – to explain why people heard sirens, or saw a smoke plume.</p>
<p>By the 1990s, the clipboards were moved out of the lobby, so we asked at the counter to see them. Then we were told we had to review them with the sergeant on duty. Then we were told we couldn’t see them – we had to ask the police what they felt was newsworthy. Then we were told to submit a public records request, and wait for days or weeks – if we got them at all.</p>
<p>For decades, journalists and civic activists have lamented the increasing secrecy of government – the times, they were <a href="https://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/nulr/vol114/iss6/2/">denied government information</a>, particularly from public records requests. Reports have shown secrecy getting worse at the federal, <a href="https://scholarship.law.upenn.edu/penn_law_review/vol169/iss6/1/">state and local government</a> levels.</p>
<p>But those were usually anecdotal reports of problems. Now, there is data that brings those refusals into focus and which provides a fuller picture of government agencies hiding their work from <a href="https://vtdigger.org/2024/02/19/letters-from-the-editors-public-records-are-just-that/">the public they ostensibly serve</a>.</p>
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<h2>Openness benefits people and society</h2>
<p>The stakes, and potential ramifications for everyday people, are significant. </p>
<p>Access to government records helps people research their <a href="https://www.archives.gov/research/genealogy">family history</a>, identify <a href="https://www.fldoe.org/accountability/accountability-reporting/school-grades/">quality schools</a> for their children, monitor the cleanliness of their <a href="https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-drinking-water-contamination/">drinking water</a>, background-check their <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/the-dig-how-to-background-your-tinder-dates-experts-edition">online dates</a>, and hold their <a href="https://cardinalnews.org/2023/03/16/the-crazy-foia-lady-used-state-law-to-dislodge-public-records-and-improve-emergency-response-times-and-finances-in-her-town/">local town officials accountable</a>. </p>
<p>And there are clear benefits: Open records are proven to lead to less <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1043986204271676">sex-offender recidivism</a>, fewer <a href="https://doi.org/10.1300/J369v05n04_04">food service complaints</a>, increased <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381610000034">trust in government institutions</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/puar.12685">reduced corruption</a>.</p>
<p>Stanford University professor James Hamilton calculated that for every dollar spent by newspapers on public records-based journalism, <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/books/9780674545502">society realizes benefits worth US$287</a> in lower taxes and saved lives.</p>
<h2>Less transparency year after year</h2>
<p>My analysis of government agencies’ compliance with public records laws through 37,000 federal Freedom of Information Act, or FOIA, requests submitted through the nonprofit <a href="https://www.muckrock.com/">MuckRock.com</a> shows that a decade ago, if you asked the federal government for a public record, you might get it about half the time – which isn’t great. Today, you might get it about 12% of the time, and the trend is steadily downward.</p>
<p>The trend is similar though less uniform among state and local governments: You might receive what you ask for two-thirds of the time in Idaho or Washington state, but only <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6182080-Sticks-and-Compliance-Cuillier">10% of the time in Alabama</a>.</p>
<p>Every year in mid-March, since 2005, national <a href="https://sunshineweek.org/">Sunshine Week</a> has promoted the right of people to acquire public records and attend public meetings. The <a href="https://brechner.org/foi/">Joseph L. Brechner Freedom of Information Project</a> at the University of Florida, where <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Nx2xluMAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">I am the director</a>, has conducted research and education about access to government information for nearly 50 years. </p>
<p>Our research indicates that U.S. government secrecy has never been so prevalent.</p>
<p>Increasing secrecy <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10811680.2021.1856603">isn’t tied to any particular president</a> or regime. The administration of President Barack Obama, who declared on his first day of office his intent to be the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/files/cui/documents/2009-WH-memo-on-transparency-and-open-government.pdf">most transparent president in history</a>, was <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.giq.2016.05.001">slower to respond and less likely to release information</a> than George W. Bush’s administration.</p>
<p>President Donald Trump’s administration was <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.giq.2019.101443">more secretive than Obama’s</a>, and transparency continues to slide under the Biden administration.</p>
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<h2>Data tells a piece of the story</h2>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.justice.gov/oip/reports-1">annual data collected</a> by the U.S. Department of Justice, federal agencies have become more secretive over the past decade:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>The prevalence of people getting what they asked for through FOIA requests declined from 38% of the time in 2010 to 17% in 2022.</p></li>
<li><p>In 2010, about 13% of the time, federal agencies would reply to FOIA requests by saying they couldn’t find records pertaining to the request. By 2022, the rate of that type of response had increased to 21%, which officials often attributed to <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-22-105040">outdated record management systems</a> incapable of keeping up with the massive amounts of electronic records, particularly emails.</p></li>
<li><p>Backlogs, where requests languish beyond the 20-day legal requirement for completion, have nearly doubled since 2010, <a href="https://www.justice.gov/oip/reports-1">from 12% of total requests to 22%</a>. The average number of days it takes to process simple requests, which require little staff time and a smaller volume of records, has doubled since 2014, from 21 days to 41 days, according to Justice Department reports.</p></li>
<li><p>While some secrecy is necessary to protect national security, the Government Accountability Office reported that the use of FOIA Exemption (b)(3), which allows federal agencies to deny records if another law makes the information secret, has <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-21-148">more than doubled</a> during the past decade, even though the number of requests only increased by a third. That includes denying people’s requests about properly withheld intelligence information. But it also includes refusing to release information on topics of great public interest, such as defective consumer products and employment discrimination cases.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Even if agencies grant requests, they present other obstacles. A.Jay Wagner of Marquette University and I surveyed 330 people who requested records in the U.S., finding that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.giq.2023.101879">high fees to copy documents discourage people</a>, such as journalists, nonprofits and members of the public, from seeking information in the public interest. And some agencies’ <a href="https://www.spj.org/pios.asp">public information officers</a> obstruct public access to information. They limit access to the people and documents most important for government transparency and accountability.</p>
<h2>Research-based solutions</h2>
<p>Just as researchers have identified secrecy spreading through the government, recent studies offer ideas for possible cures.</p>
<p>Independent <a href="https://www.archives.gov/files/ogis/about-ogis/chief-foia-officers-council/reimagining-ogis-recommendations-03-30-2022.pdf">oversight offices with enforcement power</a>, such as in <a href="https://portal.ct.gov/FOI">Connecticut</a>, <a href="https://ohiocourtofclaims.gov/public-records/">Ohio</a>, <a href="https://www.openrecords.pa.gov/">Pennsylvania</a> and more than 80 nations, provide private citizens an alternative to litigation. Instead of having to hire a lawyer to sue the government for what you are entitled to, the independent agencies will review your case, make a determination and force the government to provide you the information.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.archives.gov/ogis/foia-advisory-committee">federal FOIA Advisory Committee</a>, working since 2014, has provided <a href="https://www.archives.gov/ogis/foia-advisory-committee/dashboard">52 recommendations</a> for Congress and federal agencies to improve transparency in the United States, crafted from experts and researchers. A subcommittee I co-chair for the current term is close to finishing its assessment of how well the recommendations have been implemented, with results to be released in May 2024. Our preliminary assessment indicates that there is a lot of work left to do, and that Congress and government agencies have ignored many of the recommendations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221553/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Cuillier has received funding from the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation for research in access to information, and is former president of the nonprofit National Freedom of Information Coalition. He is currently director of the Joseph L. Brechner Freedom of Information Project, a nonpartisan organization at the University of Florida dedicated to research and education in freedom of information since 1977. The Brechner FOI Project coordinates Sunshine Week to educate the public about their right to know.</span></em></p>After years of anecdotes, data provides a fuller picture of government agencies hiding their work from the public they ostensibly serve.David Cuillier, Director of the Brechner Freedom of Information Project, College of Journalism and Communications, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2164232024-03-12T12:30:14Z2024-03-12T12:30:14ZSolar power occupies a lot of space – here’s how to make it more ecologically beneficial to the land it sits on<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580757/original/file-20240308-22-g0m361.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3019%2C1783&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Solar panels shade grassland at Jack's Solar Garden, an agrovoltaic farm in Longmont, Colo.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matthew Sturchio</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As societies look for ways to cut greenhouse gas emissions and slow climate change, large-scale solar power is playing a central role. Climate scientists view it as the tool with <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">the greatest potential to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 2030</a>. In the U.S., the Department of Energy predicts that solar will <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61424">account for nearly 60%</a> of all new utility-scale electricity-generating capacity installed in 2024. </p>
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<p>But ideal locations for solar development often overlap with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-47803-3">croplands or grasslands used for livestock grazing</a>. Typically, large-scale solar arrays are designed to maximize energy generation, without much consideration for the ecosystems in which they are placed. </p>
<p>For example, grading land and removing vegetation can <a href="https://www.popsci.com/environment/solar-farm-construction-epa-water-violations/">cause erosion and send runoff into waterways</a>. Solar developers have been fined for such environmental violations in <a href="https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/05/10/u-s-court-orders-developer-to-pay-135-5-million-in-100-mw-solar-property-damage-case/">Georgia</a>, <a href="https://www.gazettenet.com/Developer-to-pay-$1-14-million-for-wetlands-stormwater-violations-38651958#">Massachusetts</a>, <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/settlements-resolve-clean-water-act-violations-four-solar-farm-construction-sites-alabama">Alabama, Idaho and Illinois</a>. </p>
<p>There also are concerns about how large solar installations affect <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/02/11/climate/climate-change-wildlife-solar.html">animal movement patterns</a>. In the western U.S., removing native vegetation to make room for solar farms can threaten endangered animals and insects that rely on these plants as food and habitat. Native plant communities take a long time to reestablish themselves in these water-limited areas after they are disturbed.</p>
<p>I am <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Oyns6e8AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">an ecologist</a> and a member of a research team led by <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=e5RTvRMAAAAJ&hl=en">Alan Knapp</a> at Colorado State University. We investigate how solar development affects grassland ecosystem health – in particular, how plants’ growth and water use patterns and response to light change once solar panels are installed overhead. Through this work, we hope to inform a more sustainable future for solar energy. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580762/original/file-20240308-20-ka23d0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A row of solar photovoltaic panels with bushy tomato plants in front of them" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580762/original/file-20240308-20-ka23d0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580762/original/file-20240308-20-ka23d0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580762/original/file-20240308-20-ka23d0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580762/original/file-20240308-20-ka23d0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580762/original/file-20240308-20-ka23d0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=714&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580762/original/file-20240308-20-ka23d0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=714&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580762/original/file-20240308-20-ka23d0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=714&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This agrivoltaic solar array uses the space between rows of panels to grow tomatoes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matthew Sturchio</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Two land uses are better than one</h2>
<p>A growing alternative to using land solely for solar power generation is called agrivoltaics. As its name suggests, this strategy combines agriculture and solar power on the same piece of land. Agrivoltaic projects can take place on croplands, grazing lands and habitat for agriculturally important pollinators. This dual-use approach to solar development <a href="https://science.osti.gov/-/media/sbir/pdf/Market-Research/SETO---Agrivoltaics-August-2022-Public.pdf">has become popular worldwide</a></p>
<p>The <a href="https://openei.org/wiki/InSPIRE/Agrivoltaics_Map">vast majority</a> of agrivoltaic projects in the U.S. are on lands managed for livestock grazing and pollinator habitat. These sites are ideal for solar power colocation because, unlike croplands, they do not require irrigation or the use of large machinery. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/T6PEk_OZUmI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">One version of agrivoltaics is combining solar arrays and livestock grazing.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, these lands rely on rainfall to support plant growth, and the presence of solar panels affects how water reaches the soil. Most agrivoltaic arrays use sun-tracking programs that maximize energy production by tilting panels to follow the sun across the sky. As this happens, the panels create distinct micro-environments that are quite different from natural conditions. </p>
<p>For example, in Colorado, most precipitation occurs in the afternoon, when solar panels are tilted west toward the sun. As a result, most rainfall on agrivoltaic sites is concentrated at the panels’ western edges where it drops to the ground. This redistribution can multiply rainfall at panel edges by up to a factor of four, while restricting rainfall in other patches. </p>
<p>Another factor is that solar panels introduce shade on grasslands that are adapted to high light conditions. Because the arrays are optimized to intercept sunlight, much less light reaches plants beneath the panels.</p>
<h2>The ecology behind ecovoltaics</h2>
<p>So far, our work shows that the distinct micro-environments created by solar arrays produce similarly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4334">varied patterns of plant growth</a>. This finding is encouraging: It means that the environmental variation created by solar panels passively tracking the sun is enough to make plants respond differently. These micro-environments could potentially support a mosaic of plant communities that benefit from different conditions.</p>
<p>In some cases, mixed conditions like these, with varying levels of light and water, can be a good thing. A well-tested concept in restoration ecology – the science of restoring damaged ecosystems – is that environments with more variety support more diverse mixes of plants and animals.</p>
<p>In a 2023 paper, we outlined a concept that calls for an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02174-x">ecologically informed approach to solar development</a>. This approach, called ecovoltaics, requires giving equal priority to energy production and <a href="https://www.climatehubs.usda.gov/ecosystem-services">ecosystem services</a>. </p>
<p>An ecovoltaic approach allows land managers to use solar to their advantage. Designing and managing solar arrays in ways that are rooted in fundamental ecological concepts can produce more synergies between ecosystems and solar energy.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580834/original/file-20240310-26-auaqrp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Diagram showing ways to space rows of solar panels, alter their angles or adjust height to achieve various ecological outcomes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580834/original/file-20240310-26-auaqrp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580834/original/file-20240310-26-auaqrp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580834/original/file-20240310-26-auaqrp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580834/original/file-20240310-26-auaqrp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580834/original/file-20240310-26-auaqrp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580834/original/file-20240310-26-auaqrp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580834/original/file-20240310-26-auaqrp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ecovoltaic systems can be configured in different ways to achieve specific ecological goals, such as reducing water loss from soil or creating shady zones for grazing livestock.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matthew Sturchio</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Land managers could use ecovoltaic approaches to improve degraded lands by designing solar arrays to enhance natural processes. For example, since the edges of solar panels redistribute and concentrate rainfall, making the soil beneath them wetter, they could aid in seedling establishment in those spots. </p>
<p>In arid regions, arrays could be designed to promote this effect and improve restoration. If water is scarce, arrays could be designed to reduce the amount of exposed ground, which in turn would reduce the amount of water lost to the atmosphere through evaporation. </p>
<h2>Doing solar differently</h2>
<p>Many factors influence land management decisions. The land’s history, access to water, soil types, vegetation and topography all play a role. Ecovoltaics adds another factor: balancing energy production per unit area with the ecological effects of a particular solar array. </p>
<p>An ecovoltaic approach to solar power requires fundamentally rethinking how solar development decisions are made. Today, access to electricity transmission lines limits where solar power can be deployed in many areas. If transmission lines and substations are too far away, or undersized, solar power is unlikely to be developed. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/10/30/fact-sheetbiden-harris-administration-announces-historic-investment-to-bolster-nations-electric-grid-infrastructure-cut-energy-costs-for-families-and-create-good-paying-jobs/">New transmission projects</a> that ease this geographic constraint could provide more options. With greater flexibility in choosing sites, developers could shift away from highly sensitive natural ecosystems and install solar arrays on abandoned, water-limited or otherwise degraded lands instead. Ecovoltaics could be a solution for stabilizing the economy of communities where productive land has been <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-top-colorado-farming-region-is-running-out-of-water-must-retire-land-to-avoid-well-shutdown/ar-BB1jgzFe">retired to conserve resources</a></p>
<p>Solar power is scaling up to levels that make it central to a clean energy transition. My colleagues and I believe that solar development should proceed in a way that reflects ecological thinking. In our view, an ecovoltaic approach to solar can produce positive ecological outcomes and make solar energy even more sustainable.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216423/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Sturchio receives funding from the US Department of Agriculture's National Institute of Food and Agriculture.</span></em></p>Solar development isn’t always good for the land, but pairing it with agriculture can produce multiple benefits.Matthew Sturchio, PhD Student in Plant and Ecosystem Ecology, Colorado State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2076982024-03-12T12:29:40Z2024-03-12T12:29:40ZNASA’s search for life on Mars: a rocky road for its rovers, a long slog for scientists – and back on Earth, a battle of the budget<p>Is or was there life on Mars? That profound question is so complex that it will not be fully answered by the <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/">two NASA rovers now exploring it</a>. </p>
<p>But because of the literal groundwork the rovers are performing, scientists are finally investigating, in-depth and in unprecedented detail, the planet’s evidence for life, known as its “<a href="https://astrobiology.nasa.gov/education/alp/what-is-a-biosignature/">biosignatures</a>.” This search is remarkably complicated, and in the case of Mars, it is spanning decades. </p>
<p><a href="https://geology.ufl.edu/people/faculty/dr-amy-j-williams-2/">As a geologist</a>, I have had the extraordinary opportunity to work on both the Curiosity and Perseverance rover missions. Yet as much as scientists are learning from them, it will take another robotic mission to figure out if Mars has ever hosted life. That mission will bring Martian rocks back to Earth for analysis. Then – hopefully – we will have an answer. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578822/original/file-20240229-16-zmsstx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A photograph of the planet Mars, showing white caps and the reddish Martian surface." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578822/original/file-20240229-16-zmsstx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578822/original/file-20240229-16-zmsstx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578822/original/file-20240229-16-zmsstx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578822/original/file-20240229-16-zmsstx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578822/original/file-20240229-16-zmsstx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=708&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578822/original/file-20240229-16-zmsstx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=708&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578822/original/file-20240229-16-zmsstx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=708&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A photograph of Mars, the fourth planet from the Sun, taken by the Hubble Space Telescope in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://science.nasa.gov/image-detail/amf-gsfc_20171208_archive_e000019/">NASA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>From habitable to uninhabitable</h2>
<p>While so much remains mysterious about Mars, there is one thing I am confident about. Amid the thousands of pictures both rovers are taking, I’m quite sure no alien bears or meerkats will show up in any of them. Most scientists doubt the surface of Mars, or its near-surface, could currently sustain even single-celled organisms, much less complex forms of life. </p>
<p>Instead, the rovers are acting as extraterrestrial detectives, hunting for clues that life may have existed eons ago. That includes evidence of long-gone liquid surface water, life-sustaining minerals and organic molecules. To find this evidence, <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/msl/home/">Curiosity</a> and <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/mars2020/">Perseverance</a> are treading very different paths on Mars, more than 2,000 miles (3,200 kilometers) from each other. </p>
<p>These two rovers will help scientists answer some big questions: Did life ever exist on Mars? Could it exist today, perhaps deep under the surface? And would it be only microbial life, or is there any possibility it might be more complex? </p>
<p>The Mars of today is nothing like the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/solar-system/nasa-funded-study-extends-period-when-mars-could-have-supported-life/#:%7E">Mars of several billion years ago</a>. In its infancy, Mars was far more Earth-like, with a thicker atmosphere, rivers, lakes, maybe even oceans of water, and the essential elements needed for life. But this period was cut short when Mars <a href="https://mgs-mager.gsfc.nasa.gov/#:%7E">lost its magnetic field</a> and nearly all of its atmosphere – now only 1% as dense as the Earth’s. </p>
<p>The change from habitable to uninhabitable took time, perhaps hundreds of millions of years; if life ever existed on Mars, it likely died out a few billion years ago. Gradually, Mars became the cold and dry desert that it is today, with a landscape comparable to <a href="https://www.alluringworld.com/mcmurdo-dry-valleys/">the dry valleys of Antarctica</a>, without glaciers and plant or animal life. The average Martian temperature is minus 80 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 62 degrees Celsius), and its meager atmosphere is nearly all carbon dioxide. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579676/original/file-20240304-28-76rhqs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The Perseverance rover, dusty and dirty, parked in a patch of Martian soil." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579676/original/file-20240304-28-76rhqs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579676/original/file-20240304-28-76rhqs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579676/original/file-20240304-28-76rhqs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579676/original/file-20240304-28-76rhqs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579676/original/file-20240304-28-76rhqs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=692&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579676/original/file-20240304-28-76rhqs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=692&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579676/original/file-20240304-28-76rhqs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=692&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Mars rover Perseverance has taken over 200,000 pictures, including this selfie from April, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://mars.nasa.gov/resources/25790/perseverances-selfie-with-ingenuity/">NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Early exploration</h2>
<p>Robotic exploration of the Martian surface began in the 1970s, when life-detection experiments on the <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/mars-exploration/missions/viking-1-2/">Viking missions</a> failed to find any conclusive evidence for life. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/mars-pathfinder-sojourner-rover">Sojourner, the first rover</a>, landed in 1997 and demonstrated that a moving robot could perform experiments. In 2004, <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/mer/">Spirit and Opportunity</a> followed; both found evidence that liquid water once existed on the Martian surface. </p>
<p>The Curiosity rover <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/msl/home/">landed in 2012</a> and began ascending Mount Sharp, the 18,000-foot-high mountain located inside Gale crater. There is a reason why NASA chose it as an exploration site: The mountain’s rock layers show <a href="https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/mars-rover-views-spectacular-layered-rock-formations">a dramatic shift in climate</a>, from one with abundant liquid water to the dry environment of today. </p>
<p>So far, Curiosity has found evidence in several locations of past liquid water, minerals that may provide chemical energy, and intriguingly, a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JE007107">variety of organic carbon molecules</a>. </p>
<p>While organic carbon is not itself alive, it is a building block <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/solar-system/nasas-curiosity-takes-inventory-of-key-life-ingredient-on-mars/">for all life as we know it</a>. Does its presence mean that life once existed on Mars?</p>
<p>Not necessarily. Organic carbon can be abiotic – that is, unrelated to a living organism. For example, maybe the organic carbon came from a <a href="https://www.livescience.com/tissint-meteorite-organic-compounds">meteorite that crashed on Mars</a>. And though the rovers carry wonderfully sophisticated instruments, they can’t definitively tell us if these organic molecules are related to past life on Mars.</p>
<p>But laboratories here on Earth likely can. By collecting rock and soil samples from the Martian surface, and then returning them to Earth for detailed analysis with our state-of-the-art instruments, scientists may finally have the answer to an age-old question.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/YPNVVDphQVc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">An animation of the proposed Mars Sample Return mission.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Perseverance</h2>
<p>Enter Perseverance, NASA’s <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/mars2020/">newest flagship mission to Mars</a>. For the past three years – it landed in February 2021 – Perseverance has been searching for signs of bygone microbial life in the rocks within Jezero crater, selected as the landing site because it once contained a large lake. </p>
<p>Perseverance is the first step of the <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/msr/">Mars Sample Return</a> mission, an international effort to collect Martian rock and soil for return to Earth.</p>
<p>The instrument suite onboard Perseverance will help the science team choose the rocks that seem to promise the most scientific return. This will be a careful process; after all, there would be only <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/msr/multimedia/videos/?v=523">30 seats on the ride back to Earth</a> for these geological samples.</p>
<h2>Budget woes</h2>
<p>NASA’s original plan called for returning those samples to Earth by 2033. But work on the mission – now estimated to cost between US$8 billion to $11 billion – has slowed <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/jpl-to-lay-off-more-than-500-employees/">due to budget cuts and layoffs</a>. The cuts are severe; a request for $949 million to fund the mission for fiscal 2024 <a href="https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2024-03-06/nasa-budget-deal-hope-for-mars-sample-return-mission-jpl">was trimmed to $300 million</a>, although efforts are underway to <a href="https://spacenews.com/congressional-letter-asks-white-house-to-reverse-msr-spending-cuts/">restore at least some of the funding</a>. </p>
<p>The Mars Sample Return mission is critical to better understand the potential for life beyond Earth. The science and the technology that will enable it are both novel and expensive. But if NASA discovers life once existed on Mars – even if it’s by finding a microbe dead for a billion years – that will tell scientists that life is not a fluke one-time event that only happened on Earth, but a more common phenomenon that could occur on many planets.</p>
<p>That knowledge would revolutionize the way human beings see ourselves and our place in the universe. There is far more to this endeavor than just returning some rocks.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207698/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy J. Williams receives funding from NASA Participating Scientist grants associated with the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover and the Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity rover. </span></em></p>Determining whether or not life exists on another planet is an extraordinarily complicated – and expensive – scientific endeavor.Amy J. Williams, Assistant Professor of Geology, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2245912024-03-12T12:29:23Z2024-03-12T12:29:23ZSalty foods are making people sick − in part by poisoning their microbiomes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580543/original/file-20240307-30-s3d9jw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1729%2C1732&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Salt has taken over many diets worldwide -- some more than others.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/salt-on-pile-royalty-free-image/115788609">ATU Images/The Image Bank via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>People have been using salt since the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-21841-7">dawn of civilization</a> to process, preserve and enhance foods. In <a href="https://www.sidestone.com/books/archaeology-of-salt">ancient Rome</a>, salt was so central to commerce that soldiers were paid their “salarium,” or salaries, in salt, for instance. </p>
<p>Salt’s value was in part as a food preservative, keeping unwanted microbes at bay while <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/bit.260090302">allowing desired ones to grow</a>. It was this remarkable ability to regulate bacterial growth that likely helped spark the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26017985">development of fermented foods</a> ranging from sauerkraut to salami, olives to bread, cheese to kimchi.</p>
<p>Today, salt has become ubiquitous and highly concentrated in <a href="https://www.heart.org/en/healthy-living/healthy-eating/eat-smart/sodium/sodium-sources">increasingly processed diets</a>. The evidence has mounted that too much salt – specifically the sodium chloride added to preserve and enhance the flavor of many highly processed foods – is <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/10/13/1045651839/eating-too-much-salt-is-making-americans-sick-even-a-12-reduction-can-save-lives">making people sick</a>. It can cause <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacc.2019.11.055">high blood pressure</a> and contribute to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2105675">heart attacks and stroke</a>. It is also associated with an increased risk of developing <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390%2Fnu14204260">stomach</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093%2Fcdn%2Fnzz030.P05-039-19">colon cancer</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00016489.2024.2315302">Ménière’s disease</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-18830-4">osteoporosis</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nrneph.2018.23">obesity</a>.</p>
<p>How might a substance previously thought <a href="https://www.worldhistory.org/article/1342/the-salt-trade-of-ancient-west-africa/">worth its weight in gold</a> have transformed into something <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038%2Fs41371-022-00690-0">many medical institutions</a> consider a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2017.0947">key predictor of disease</a>?</p>
<p>Salt lobbyists may be one answer to this question. And as <a href="https://gastro.uw.edu/people/faculty/damman-c">a gastroenterologist</a> and research scientist at the University of Washington, I want to share the mounting evidence that microbes from the shadows of your gut might also shed some light on how salt contributes to disease.</p>
<h2>Blood pressure cookers</h2>
<p>Sodium’s role in blood pressure and heart disease results largely from its regulating the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1161/01.CIR.53.4.589">amount of water inside your blood vessels</a>. In simple terms, the more sodium in your blood, the more water it pulls into your blood vessels. This leads to higher blood pressure and subsequently an increased risk for heart attack and stroke. Some people may be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41371-020-00407-1">more or less sensitive</a> to the effects salt has on blood pressure.</p>
<p>Recent research suggests an additional way salt may <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s44161-022-00204-8">raise blood pressure</a> – by altering your gut microbiome. Salt leads to a decrease in <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390%2Fnu14061171">healthy microbes</a> and the <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390%2Fnu10091154">key metabolites</a> they produce from fiber. These metabolites <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s44161-022-00204-8">decrease inflammation</a> in blood vessels and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1161/HYPERTENSIONAHA.122.18558">keep them relaxed</a>, contributing to reduced blood pressure.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580552/original/file-20240307-18-c1oq15.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Salt shaker next to a blood pressure cuff" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580552/original/file-20240307-18-c1oq15.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580552/original/file-20240307-18-c1oq15.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580552/original/file-20240307-18-c1oq15.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580552/original/file-20240307-18-c1oq15.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580552/original/file-20240307-18-c1oq15.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580552/original/file-20240307-18-c1oq15.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580552/original/file-20240307-18-c1oq15.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Extra salt may contribute to high blood pressure.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/blood-pressure-cuff-and-salt-royalty-free-image/86495796">Jupiterimages/Stockbyte via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With the exception of certain organisms that thrive in salt <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41366-018-0201-3">called halophiles</a>, high levels of salt can <a href="https://www.sciencefocus.com/nature/why-does-salt-have-antibacterial-properties">poison just about any microbe</a>, even ones your body wants to keep around. This is why people have been using salt for a long time to <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK50952/">preserve food</a> and keep unwanted bacteria away.</p>
<p>But modern diets often have too much sodium. According to the World Health Organization, healthy consumption amounts to less than <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/salt-reduction">2,000 milligrams</a> per day for the average adult. The global mean intake of <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/salt-reduction">4,310 milligrams</a> of sodium has likely increased the amount of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/ki.1985.38">salt in the gut</a> over healthy levels.</p>
<h2>Salt of the girth</h2>
<p>Sodium is connected to health outcomes <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.jacc.2014.12.039">other than blood pressure</a>, and your microbiome may be playing a role here, too.</p>
<p>High sodium diets and higher <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41366-018-0201-3">sodium levels in stool</a> are significantly linked to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/dom.14980">metabolic disorders</a>, including elevated <a href="https://doi.org/10.2147/DMSO.S338915">blood sugar</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002%2Ffsn3.2781">fatty liver disease</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.4162%2Fnrp.2023.17.2.175">weight gain</a>. In fact, one study estimated that for every one gram per day increase in dietary sodium, there is a 15% <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nutres.2018.04.008">increased risk of obesity</a>. </p>
<p>A gold-standard dietary study from the National Institutes of Health found that those on a diet of ultraprocessed foods over two weeks ate about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cmet.2019.05.008">500 more calories and weighed about 2 pounds more</a> compared with those on a minimally processed diet. One of the biggest differences between the two diets was the extra 1.2 grams of sodium consumed with the ultraprocessed diets.</p>
<p>A leading explanation for why increased salt may lead to weight gain despite having no calories is that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physbeh.2008.04.008">sodium increases cravings</a>. When sodium is combined with simple sugars and unhealthy fats, these so-called <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/oby.22639">hyperpalatable foods</a> may be linked to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.appet.2021.105592">fat gain</a>, as they are particularly good at stimulating the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1155%2F2016%2F7238679">reward centers</a> in the brain and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3945/ajcn.111.020164">addictionlike</a> eating behaviors.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580540/original/file-20240307-28-lr4cr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Close-up of a chef's hand dispensing a pinch of salt" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580540/original/file-20240307-28-lr4cr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580540/original/file-20240307-28-lr4cr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580540/original/file-20240307-28-lr4cr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580540/original/file-20240307-28-lr4cr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580540/original/file-20240307-28-lr4cr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580540/original/file-20240307-28-lr4cr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580540/original/file-20240307-28-lr4cr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many people could do with a pinch less of salt.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/close-up-of-a-chef-adding-salt-into-his-recipe-royalty-free-image/1339981307">skynesher/E+ via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Salt may also connect to cravings via a short circuit in the gut microbiome. Microbiome metabolites stimulate the release of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/your-body-already-has-a-built-in-weight-loss-system-that-works-like-wegovy-ozempic-and-mounjaro-food-and-your-gut-microbiome-220272">natural version</a> of weight loss drugs Wegovy and Ozempic, the gut hormone GLP-1. Through GLP-1, a healthy microbiome can control your appetite, blood sugar levels and your body’s decision to burn or store energy as fat. Too much salt may interfere with its release.</p>
<p>Other explanations for salt’s effect on metabolic disease, with varying amounts of evidence, include increased <a href="https://doi.org/10.1097%2FMNH.0000000000000152">sugar absorption</a>, increased <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/cvr/cvac160">gut-derived corticosteroids</a> and a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1713837115">sugar called fructose</a> that can lead to fat accumulation and decreases in <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390%2Fnu14020253">energy use for heat production</a>.</p>
<h2>Desalin-nations</h2>
<p>While many countries are implementing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/advances/nmab008">national salt reduction initiatives</a>, sodium consumption in most <a href="https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/magazine/magazine_article/wheres-the-salt/">parts of the world</a> remains on the rise. Dietary salt reduction in the <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7042a4">United States</a> in particular remains behind the curve, while many <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nfs.2015.03.001">European countries</a> have started to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehab274">see benefits</a> such as lower blood pressure and fewer deaths from heart disease through initiatives like improved <a href="https://www.iarc.who.int/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/IARC_Evidence_Summary_Brief_2.pdf">package labeling</a> of salt content, reformulating foods to limit salt and even salt taxes. </p>
<p>Comparing the nutrition facts of fast-food items <a href="https://doi.org/10.1503/cmaj.111895">between countries</a> reveals considerable variability. For instance, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2012/04/16/150728142/fast-food-in-the-u-s-has-way-more-salt-than-in-other-countries">McDonald’s chicken nuggets</a> are saltiest in the U.S. and even <a href="https://www.coca-cola.com/us/en/brands/coca-cola/products/original#accordion-c55f229edc-item-93131ee8b3">American Coke</a> contains salt, an ingredient it <a href="https://world.openfoodfacts.org/cgi/search.pl?search_terms=coca+cola&search_simple=1&action=process">lacks in other countries</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580549/original/file-20240307-24-bxdz7t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Hand shaking salt on a packet of fries beside a soft drink" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580549/original/file-20240307-24-bxdz7t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580549/original/file-20240307-24-bxdz7t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580549/original/file-20240307-24-bxdz7t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580549/original/file-20240307-24-bxdz7t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580549/original/file-20240307-24-bxdz7t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580549/original/file-20240307-24-bxdz7t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580549/original/file-20240307-24-bxdz7t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some fast foods have more salt than others.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/excess-salt-being-added-to-chips-french-fires-royalty-free-image/1069612086">Peter Dazeley/The Image Bank via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/03/30/707747077/after-a-century-a-voice-for-the-u-s-salt-industry-goes-quiet">salt industry</a> in the U.S may have a role here. It lobbied to prevent government regulations on salt in the 2010s, not dissimilar from what the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111%2Fj.1468-0009.2009.00555.x">tobacco industry did with cigarettes</a> in the 1980s. Salty foods sell well. One of the key voices of the salt industry for many years, the now-defunct <a href="https://thehill.com/regulation/healthcare/281914-salt-lobby-warns-sodium-reduction-will-endanger-public-health/">Salt Institute</a>, may have confused public health messaging around the importance of salt reduction by emphasizing the <a href="https://www.acc.org/About-ACC/Press-Releases/2023/02/22/20/42/Too-Little-Sodium-Can-be-Harmful-to-Heart-Failure-Patients">less common</a> instances where restriction can be dangerous.</p>
<p>But the evidence for reducing salt in the general diet is mounting, and institutions are responding. In 2021, the U.S. Department of Agriculture issued <a href="https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/guidance-industry-voluntary-sodium-reduction-goals">new industry guidance</a> calling for a <a href="https://www.fda.gov/food/food-additives-petitions/sodium-reduction#">voluntary gradual reduction of salt</a> in commercially processed and prepared foods. The <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/03/30/707747077/after-a-century-a-voice-for-the-u-s-salt-industry-goes-quiet">Salt Institute</a> dissolved in 2019. Other organizations such as the <a href="https://affi.org/affi-statement-on-fda-release-of-voluntary-sodium-reduction-goals/">American Frozen Food Institute</a> and major ingredient <a href="https://www.cargill.com/salt-in-perspective/new-report-outlines-how-us-food-companies-can-improve-offerings">suppliers such as Cargill</a> are on board with lowering dietary salt.</p>
<h2>From add-vice to advice</h2>
<p>How can you <a href="https://theconversation.com/hangry-bacteria-in-your-gut-microbiome-are-linked-to-chronic-disease-feeding-them-what-they-need-could-lead-to-happier-cells-and-a-healthier-body-199486">feed your gut microbiome</a> well while being mindful of your salt intake?</p>
<p>Start with limiting your consumption of highly processed foods: salty meats (such as fast food and cured meat), salty treats (such as crackers and chips) and salty sneaks (such as soft drinks, condiments and breads). Up to <a href="https://www.fda.gov/food/nutrition-education-resources-materials/sodium-your-diet">70% of dietary salt</a> in the U.S. is currently consumed from packaged and processed foods. </p>
<p>Instead, focus on foods low in added sodium and sugar and high in potassium and fiber, such as unprocessed, plant-based foods: beans, nuts, seeds, whole grains, fruits and vegetables. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10408398.2017.1383355">Fermented foods</a>, though often high in sodium, may also be a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2021.06.019">healthier option</a> due to high levels of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-53242-x">short-chain fatty acids</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/fiber-is-your-bodys-natural-guide-to-weight-management-rather-than-cutting-carbs-out-of-your-diet-eat-them-in-their-original-fiber-packaging-instead-205159">fiber</a>, <a href="https://gutbites.org/2024/01/18/like-fiber-polyphenols-in-food-boost-glp-1-ignite-mitochondria-help-coordinate-metabolic-health/">polyphenols</a> and potassium.</p>
<p>Finally, consider the balance of dietary sodium and potassium. While sodium helps keep fluid in your blood vessels, potassium helps keep fluid <a href="https://gutbites.org/2024/03/02/too-much-or-too-little-salt-balanced-advice-on-sodium-to-potassium-ratios/">in your cells</a>. Dietary sodium and potassium are best consumed <a href="https://gutbites.org/carb-fiber-ratio-calculator/#NCS">in balanced ratios</a>.</p>
<p>While all advice is best taken with a grain of salt, your microbiome gently asks that it just not be large.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224591/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Damman is on the scientific advisory board at Oobli and One BIO.</span></em></p>Salt is an essential nutrient that has helped civilizations flavor and preserve their foods for millennia. Too much dietary salt, however, is linked to a host of health problems.Christopher Damman, Associate Professor of Gastroenterology, School of Medicine, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.