tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/1967-outer-space-treaty-104542/articles1967 Outer Space Treaty – The Conversation2022-07-08T12:19:01Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1866142022-07-08T12:19:01Z2022-07-08T12:19:01ZNASA’s head warned that China may try to claim the Moon – two space scholars explain why that’s unlikely to happen<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473092/original/file-20220707-20-99hlqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=29%2C177%2C6560%2C3942&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">China and the U.S. both have big plans for the Moon, but there are a number of reasons why no country could actually claim ownership of any land there.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/astronauts-set-an-chinese-flag-on-the-moon-royalty-free-image/1060095534?adppopup=true">3dScultor/iStock via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>NASA Administrator Bill Nelson recently expressed concerns over China’s aims in space, and in particular, that China would, in some way, claim ownership over the Moon and stop other countries from exploring it. In an <a href="https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/nasa-chef-schlaegt-alarm-chinesen-wollen-den-mond-besetzen-80490242.bild.html">interview with a German newspaper</a>, Nelson cautioned, “We must be very concerned that China is landing on the Moon and saying: ‘It’s ours now and you stay out.‘” China <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-05/china-slams-nasa-administrator-bill-nelson-as-race-to-the-moon-gets-heated">immediately denounced the claims as a “lie”</a>. </p>
<p>This spat between the administrator of NASA and Chinese government officials comes at a time when both nations are <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/china-confirms-its-joining-russia-to-build-a-moon-base-by-2035/ar-AATfsk4">actively working</a> on <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis-accords/index.html">missions to the Moon</a> – and China has not been shy about its lunar aspirations. </p>
<p>In 2019, China became the first country <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2019/01/03/china-lands-spacecraft-far-side-moon-historic-first/">to land a spacecraft</a> on the far side of the Moon. That same year, China and Russia announced <a href="https://spacenews.com/china-russia-to-cooperate-on-lunar-orbiter-landing-missions/">joint plans</a> to reach the South Pole of the Moon by 2026. And some Chinese officials and <a href="http://english.www.gov.cn/archive/whitepaper/202201/28/content_WS61f35b3dc6d09c94e48a467a.html">government documents</a> have expressed intentions <a href="https://spacenews.com/china-russia-enter-mou-on-international-lunar-research-station/#:%7E:text=China%20and%20Russia%20have%20previously%20signed%20agreements%20for,signed%20an%20MoU%20with%20NASA%20on%20the%20Gateway">to build</a> a permanent, crewed International Lunar Research Station <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3161324/china-speeds-moon-base-plan-space-race-against-us">by 2027</a>.</p>
<p>There is big difference between China – or any state for that matter – setting up a lunar base and actually “taking over” the Moon. As two scholars who study space security and China’s space program, we believe that neither China nor any other nation is likely to take over the Moon in the near future. It is not only illegal, it is also technologically daunting – the costs of such an endeavor would be extremely high, while the potential payoffs would be uncertain. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473091/original/file-20220707-22-1o5luf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large room with many seats and a large dais." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473091/original/file-20220707-22-1o5luf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473091/original/file-20220707-22-1o5luf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473091/original/file-20220707-22-1o5luf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473091/original/file-20220707-22-1o5luf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473091/original/file-20220707-22-1o5luf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473091/original/file-20220707-22-1o5luf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473091/original/file-20220707-22-1o5luf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 1967 Outer Space Treaty, signed into law by the United Nations, seen here, says that the Moon cannot be claimed by any nation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/19473388@N00/336920038">Patrick Gruban/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>China is limited by international space law</h2>
<p>Legally, China cannot take over the Moon because it is against current international space law. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/space-law-hasnt-been-changed-since-1967-but-the-un-aims-to-update-laws-and-keep-space-peaceful-171351">Outer Space Treaty</a>, adopted in 1967 and signed by 134 countries, including China, <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/pdf/publications/STSPACE11E.pdf">explicitly states</a> that “Outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means” (<a href="https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/treaties/outerspacetreaty.html">Article II</a>). Legal scholars have <a href="https://iislweb.space/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/The-NonAppropriation-Principle-A-Roman-Interpretation.pdf">debated the exact meaning of “appropriation”</a>, but under a literal interpretation, the treaty indicates that no country can take possession of the Moon and declare it an extension of its national aspirations and prerogatives. If China tried to do this, it would risk international condemnation and a potential international retaliatory response.</p>
<p>While no country can claim ownership of the Moon, <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/treaties/outerspacetreaty.html">Article I</a> of the Outer Space Treaty allows any state to explore and use outer space and celestial bodies. China will <a href="https://theconversation.com/space-blocs-the-future-of-international-cooperation-in-space-is-splitting-along-lines-of-power-on-earth-180221">not be the only visitor</a> to the South Pole of the Moon in the near future. The U.S.-led <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis-accords/index.html">Artemis Accords</a> is a group of <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/france-signs-artemis-accords-as-french-space-agency-marks-milestone">20 countries</a> that has plans to return humans to the Moon by 2025, which will include the establishment of a research station on the lunar surface and a supporting space station in orbit called the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/gateway/overview">Gateway</a> with a planned launch in <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-northrop-grumman-finalize-moon-outpost-living-quarters-contract">November 2024</a>.</p>
<p>Even if no country can legally claim sovereignty over the Moon, it is possible that China, or any other country, would attempt to gradually establish de facto control over strategically important areas through a strategy known as “<a href="https://warontherocks.com/2014/02/america-has-no-answer-to-chinas-salami-slicing/">salami slicing</a>.” This practice involves taking small, incremental steps to achieve a big change: Individually, those steps do not warrant a strong response, but their cumulative effect adds up to significant developments and increased control. China has recently been using this strategy <a href="https://warontherocks.com/2014/02/america-has-no-answer-to-chinas-salami-slicing/">in the South and East China seas</a>. Still, such a strategy takes time and can be addressed.</p>
<h2>Controlling the Moon is difficult</h2>
<p>With a surface area of nearly 14.6 million square miles (39 million square kilometers) – or <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-big-is-the-moon-let-me-compare-118840">almost five times the area of Australia</a> – any control of the Moon would be temporary and localized. </p>
<p>More plausibly, China could attempt to secure control of specific lunar areas that are strategically valuable, such as lunar craters with higher concentrations of <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1802345115">water ice</a>. <a href="https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/ice/ice_moon.html">Ice on the Moon</a> is important because it will provide water to humans that wouldn’t need to be shipped from Earth. Ice can also serve as a vital source of oxygen and hydrogen, which could be used as rocket fuel. In short, water ice is essential for ensuring the long-term sustainability and survivability of any mission to the Moon or beyond. </p>
<p>Securing and enforcing control of strategic lunar areas would require substantial financial investments and long-term efforts. And no country could do this without everyone noticing.</p>
<p><iframe id="5Cg1k" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/5Cg1k/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Does China have the resources and capabilities?</h2>
<p>China is investing heavily in space. In 2021, it led in number of orbital launches with <a href="https://www.thespacereport.org/register/the-space-report-2021-quarter-4-pdf-download/">a total of 55</a> compared to the U.S.’s 51. China is also in the <a href="https://www.thespacereport.org/register/the-space-report-2021-quarter-4-pdf-download/">top three</a> in spacecraft deployment for 2021. China’s state-owned StarNet space company is planning a <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/space/spacex-amazon-oneweb-starlink-collision-chicken-b1850644.html">megaconstellation</a> of <a href="https://www.newspace.im/constellations/gw">12,992 satellites</a>, and the country has nearly <a href="https://www.space.com/china-big-plans-tiangong-space-station">finished building the Tiangong space station</a>. </p>
<p>Going to the Moon is <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nasa-artemis-moon-program-biden-budget-2023/">expensive</a>; “taking over” the Moon would be much more so. China’s space budget – an <a href="https://landingpage.spacefoundation.org/the-space-report-q2-se-es">estimated US$13 billion in 2020</a> – is only around half that of <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nasa_fy2020_afr_508_compliance_v4.pdf">NASA’s</a>. Both the U.S. and China increased their space budgets in 2020, the U.S. by 5.6% and China by 17.1% compared to the previous year. But even with the increased spending, China does not seem to be investing the money needed to carry out the expensive, daring and uncertain mission of “taking over” the Moon. </p>
<p>If China assumes control over some part of the moon, it would be a risky, expensive and extremely provocative action. China would risk further tarnishing its international image by breaking international law, and it may invite retaliation. All this for uncertain payoffs that remain to be determined.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186614/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The views expressed are those of the authors and do not reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Defense, or of any organization the authors are affiliated with, including the Air University, Air War College, the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Space Force. </span></em></p>A comment by Bill Nelson, the NASA administrator, sparked a strong public response from the Chinese government. But due to legal and practical reasons, no country could take over the Moon anytime soon.Svetla Ben-Itzhak, Assistant Professor of Space and International Relations, Air UniversityR. Lincoln Hines, Assistant Professor, West Space Seminar, Air University, Air UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1713512021-11-23T13:31:58Z2021-11-23T13:31:58ZSpace law hasn’t been changed since 1967 – but the UN aims to update laws and keep space peaceful<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432921/original/file-20211119-27-ekyr9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=3%2C0%2C2005%2C1306&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The International Space Station is a great example of how space has, for the most part, been a peaceful and collaborative international arena.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nasamarshall/3907196583/in/photolist-6Xgpqk-2joFg2n-wkVE6n-LGPFNe-FLjNWk-vGWF4r-V1AqKG-QjfUiS-2joHVP9-NARDGE-H9HKsz-RwNUie-S8Yo6F-Pah2Lr-MCJ5Tj-S9LG9X-2iNCKp9-Si7AKy-2jKhmec-EhnK2M-oMwLYW-RWdJBe-Y2hHz1-huATMM-2j91QCG-2mbuVDN-JKv6kv-Lt2no8-EhnC9i-2maukEw-6UuDmQ-QRonqA-2dveumo-2jqvXVA-qr1yCz-LGH7oc-22LL4om-NdFXq9-ystvvU-edqM3z-KDN537-q8egXH-KWiWEy-CXdSwv-2j2NNc1-WnFg6Y-RgvHvr-wrd1mD-2mgY4L5-yJU3QU">NASA Marshall Spaceflight Center/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Nov. 15, 2021, <a href="https://theconversation.com/russian-anti-satellite-weapon-test-what-happened-and-what-are-the-risks-172016">Russia destroyed one of its own old satellites</a> using a missile launched from the surface of the Earth, creating a massive debris cloud that threatens many space assets, including astronauts onboard the International Space Station. This happened only two weeks after the United Nations General Assembly First Committee <a href="https://www.un.org/press/en/2021/gadis3676.doc.htm">formally recognized the vital role that space and space assets</a> play in international efforts to better the human experience – and the risks military activities in space pose to those goals.</p>
<p>The U.N. First Committee deals with disarmament, global challenges and threats to peace that affect the international community. On Nov. 1, it approved a resolution that creates an open-ended working group. The goals of the group are to assess current and future threats to space operations, determine when behavior may be considered irresponsible, “make recommendations on possible norms, rules and principles of responsible behaviors,” and “contribute to the negotiation of legally binding instruments” – including a treaty to <a href="https://undocs.org/A/C.1/76/L.52">prevent “an arms race in space</a>.”</p>
<p>We are two space policy experts with specialties in <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=TUy5ls8AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">space law</a> and the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=8EuuXs4AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">business of commercial space</a>. We are also the president and vice president at the National Space Society, a nonprofit space advocacy group. It is refreshing to see the U.N. acknowledge the harsh reality that peace in space remains uncomfortably tenuous. This timely resolution has been approved as activities in space become ever more important and – as shown by the Russian test – tensions continue to rise.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432922/original/file-20211119-13-1npau3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large meeting hall in the United Nations headquarters." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432922/original/file-20211119-13-1npau3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432922/original/file-20211119-13-1npau3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432922/original/file-20211119-13-1npau3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432922/original/file-20211119-13-1npau3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432922/original/file-20211119-13-1npau3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432922/original/file-20211119-13-1npau3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432922/original/file-20211119-13-1npau3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Current actions in space are governed by the 1967 Outer Space Treaty that was developed within the United Nations, seen here.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:United_Nations_General_Assembly_Hall_(3).jpg#/media/File:United_Nations_General_Assembly_Hall_(3).jpg">Basil D Soufi/WikimediaCommons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The 1967 Outer Space Treaty</h2>
<p>Outer space is far from a lawless vacuum.</p>
<p>Activities in space are governed by the <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/treaties/outerspacetreaty.html">1967 Outer Space Treaty</a>, which is currently ratified by <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/res/oosadoc/data/documents/2021/aac_105c_22021crp/aac_105c_22021crp_10_0_html/AC105_C2_2021_CRP10E.pdf">111 nations</a>. The treaty was negotiated in the shadow of the Cold War when only two nations – the Soviet Union and the U.S. – had spacefaring capabilities. </p>
<p>While the Outer Space Treaty offers broad principles to guide the activities of nations, it does not offer detailed “rules of the road.” Essentially, the treaty assures freedom of exploration and use of space to all humankind. There are just two caveats to this, and multiple gaps immediately present themselves. </p>
<p>The first caveat states that the Moon and other celestial bodies must be used exclusively for peaceful purposes. It omits the rest of space in this blanket prohibition. The only guidance offered in this respect is found in the treaty’s preamble, which recognizes a “common interest” in the “progress of the exploration and use of space for peaceful purposes.” The second caveat says that those conducting activities in space must do so with “due regard to the corresponding interests of all other States Parties to the Treaty.”</p>
<p>A major problem arises from the fact that the treaty does not offer clear definitions for either “peaceful purposes” or “due regard.”</p>
<p>While the Outer Space Treaty does specifically prohibit placing nuclear weapons or weapons of mass destruction anywhere in space, it does not prohibit the use of conventional weapons in space or the use of ground-based weapons against assets in space. Finally, it is also unclear if some weapons – like China’s new nuclear capable partial-orbit hypersonic missile – <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/17/politics/john-hyten-china-hypersonic-weapons-test/index.html">should fall under the treaty’s ban</a>.</p>
<p>The vague military limitations built into the treaty leave more than enough room for interpretation to result in conflict.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432924/original/file-20211119-23-1o9bnbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A satellite image of a storm over the U.S." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432924/original/file-20211119-23-1o9bnbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432924/original/file-20211119-23-1o9bnbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432924/original/file-20211119-23-1o9bnbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432924/original/file-20211119-23-1o9bnbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432924/original/file-20211119-23-1o9bnbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432924/original/file-20211119-23-1o9bnbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432924/original/file-20211119-23-1o9bnbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nonmilitary satellites, like those used to take images for weather forecasts, can also serve important military functions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/gsfc/38794547494/in/photolist-2279cow-4FiPvt-SKid1g-2kAH9Rd-vj7kj2-MVTSPo-2bkJCXF-CvFMzL-oERpnX-2gH54eV-Dn7rdY-2mKt4sn-vY58Vs-2mKBFZs-2kCQaC5-qrgKSr-LNxUHA-i77LC8-2e5zdrk-2jRhr52-oPuo7N-eJ82No-qXWhv4-JqF4Vd-29prdYm-yZBEuA-4xqurW-21QVNtZ-2kaXk66-2krrypS-z2wjqM-AapZzD-q7AD7t-21tkYgA-W7R91Y-22Ghxpy-njaPqF-GCvcCd-2gkPu6W-QFqPZK-2hYHYNk-egcv1D-pdUNRn-YCRRW3-zcAG3a-nKScPU-2mKFgtv-26wDexq-SfD3Qc-kyFmeu">NASA Goddard Spaceflight Center/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Space is militarized, conflict is possible</h2>
<p>Space has been used for military purposes since <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20140905-the-nazis-space-age-rocket">Germany’s first V2 rocket launch in 1942</a>. </p>
<p>Many <a href="https://airandspace.si.edu/events/techquest/past-missions/eye-in-the-sky/corona.cfm">early satellites</a>, GPS technology, a <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a18187/here-is-the-soviet-unions-secret-space-cannon/">Soviet Space Station</a> and even NASA’s space shuttle were all either explicitly developed for or <a href="https://www.airspacemag.com/space/secret-space-shuttles-35318554/">have been used for military purposes</a>.</p>
<p>With increasing commercialization, the lines between military and civilian uses of space are less blurry. Most people are able to identify terrestrial benefits of satellites like weather forecasts, climate monitoring and internet connectivity but are unaware that they also increase agricultural yields and monitor human rights violations. The rush to develop a new space economy based on activities in and around Earth and the Moon suggests that humanity’s <a href="https://www.morganstanley.com/Themes/global-space-economy">economic dependence on space will only increase</a>.</p>
<p>However, satellites that provide terrestrial benefits could or already do serve military functions as well. We are forced to conclude that the lines between military and civilian uses remain sufficiently indistinct to make a potential conflict more likely than not. Growing commercial operations will also provide opportunities for disputes over operational zones to provoke governmental military responses.</p>
<h2>Military testing</h2>
<p>While there has not yet been any direct military conflict in space, there has been an escalation of efforts by nations to prove their military prowess in and around space. Russia’s test is only the most recent example. In 2007, China tested an anti-satellite weapon and created an enormous debris cloud that is still causing problems. The International Space Station had to <a href="https://www.space.com/space-station-dodging-chinese-space-junk-spacex-crew-3">dodge a piece from that Chinese test as recently as Nov. 10, 2021</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Understand new developments in science, health and technology, each week.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-understand">Subscribe to The Conversation’s science newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theweek.in/news/sci-tech/2019/03/27/history-anti-satellite-weapon-us-asat-missile.html">Similar demonstrations by the U.S. and India</a> were far less destructive in terms of creating debris, but they were no more welcomed by the international community.</p>
<p>The new U.N. resolution is important because it sets in motion the development of new norms, rules and principles of responsible behavior. Properly executed, this could go a long way toward providing the guardrails needed to prevent conflict in space. </p>
<h2>From guidelines to enforcement</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/copuos/index.html">U.N. Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space</a> has been addressing space activities since 1959. </p>
<p>However, the remit of the <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/copuos/members/evolution.html">95-member</a> committee is to promote international cooperation and study legal problems arising from the exploration of outer space. It lacks any ability to enforce the principles and guidelines set forth in the 1967 Outer Space Treaty or even to compel actors into negotiations.</p>
<p>The U.N. resolution from November 2021 requires the newly created working group to meet two times a year in both 2022 and 2023. While this pace of activity is glacial compared with the speed of commercial space development, it is a major step in global space policy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171351/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle L.D. Hanlon serves as President of the National Space Society, Co-Director of the Center for Air and Space Law at the University of Mississippi School of Law, President and Co-Founder of For All Moonkind and Partner at ABH Space Law.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Greg Autry receives funding from the Federal Aviation Administration Office of Space Commerce. University of Oxford.
Greg Autry serves as Vice President in the National Space Society.
Greg Autry served at NASA.</span></em></p>Activities in space today are far more numerous and complicated compared to 1967, before humans had landed on the moon or Elon Musk had been born. Two experts explain the need for better laws to keep space peaceful.Michelle L.D. Hanlon, Professor of Air and Space Law, University of MississippiGreg Autry, Clinical Professor of Space Leadership, Policy and Business, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1721052021-11-18T20:58:38Z2021-11-18T20:58:38ZRussia’s attack on its own satellite is reckless and endangers us all<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432726/original/file-20211118-24-19gv0e0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4089%2C2152&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Space debris produced by anti-satellite weapons can have dangerous consequences.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Earlier this week, <a href="https://www.space.com/space-debris-astronauts-shelter-november-2021">astronauts onboard the International Space Station rushed to seek shelter</a>. The near-evacuation was not caused by <a href="https://earthsky.org/space/are-solar-storms-dangerous-to-us/">an unpredictable space weather event</a> or <a href="https://www.esa.int/Safety_Security/Space_Debris/Space_debris_by_the_numbers">the millions of pieces of remains of existing space objects and rocket launchers left there</a> since the beginning of the Space Age.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/russian-anti-satellite-weapon-test-what-happened-and-what-are-the-risks-172016">Russian anti-satellite weapon test: What happened and what are the risks?</a>
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<p>The lives of astronauts were temporarily threatened by a cloud of orbital debris — space junk — <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-59299101">created by the testing of anti-satellite (ASAT) capabilities by Russia</a>.</p>
<p>What is not temporary is the threat that space debris will pose to the thousands of other functioning satellites that form the backbone of modern economies and societies. </p>
<p>Russia blew up one of its own defunct satellites, and in the process, created over 1,500 pieces of trackable debris that will remain in orbit well into the 2040s. It is not clear how many pieces of untraceable debris have been created.</p>
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<h2>Debris and condemnation</h2>
<p>For decades, <a href="https://swfound.org/counterspace/">major space-faring nations have tested a variety of weapons with the capabilitiy to destroy space objects</a> and launch attacks on Earth from space. The latest kinetic weapon test has created not just debris in space, but also sent shock waves around the world. </p>
<p>Stray and uncontrolled debris travels multiple times faster than a bullet, and can easily disable or even destroy the satellites that we depend on for <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/benefits-of-space/benefits.html">basic but critical activities</a>. Satellites facilitate banking transactions, land and ocean management, search and rescue operations and weather monitoring, among other things.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-need-new-treaties-to-address-the-growing-problem-of-space-debris-115757">We need new treaties to address the growing problem of space debris</a>
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<p>Calling the action “reckless and irresponsible,” the United States issued a statement announcing that debris created by the latest weapons test in space will threaten “<a href="https://www.state.gov/russia-conducts-destructive-anti-satellite-missile-test/">space objects that are vital to all nations’ security, economic and scientific interests for decades to come</a>.” </p>
<p>The NATO secretary general also expressed that this “reckless act” will pose a threat to civilian activities and “<a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_188605.htm">important space capabilities for basic infrastructure on Earth like communications, like navigation, or like early warning of missile launches</a>.” </p>
<p>Condemnations of this single event were echoed in <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2021/11/17/du-tir-antisatellite-russe-a-la-guerre-spatiale-posez-vos-questions-a-nos-journalistes_6102432_3210.html">France</a>, the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-59299101">United Kingdom</a> and <a href="https://www.daijiworld.com/news/newsDisplay?newsID=894629">South Korea</a>. </p>
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<p>Various space industry associations and businesses have expressed <a href="https://www.satellitetoday.com/government-military/2021/11/16/russia-confirms-asat-test-space-industry-condemns-deliberate-action/">concerns about Russia’s latest act</a>. These concerns are not only limited to the increased risk to multi-million dollar space assets, but also the cost that may be incurred in manoeuvring satellites to avoid possible collisions with the new debris created by the Russian ASAT.</p>
<p>A more upsetting possibility is that other countries may be encouraged to follow suit and conduct similar weapons tests in space, thereby exacerbating rising geopolitical tensions and accelerate an arms race in space. </p>
<h2>Space is not a vacuum</h2>
<p>Space activities are subject to extensive laws and regulations. In 1958, it was universally agreed that <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/pdf/gares/ARES_13_1348E.pdf">all nations have a “common interest” in outer space, and that space should be used for “peaceful purposes.”</a> </p>
<p>The 1967 Outer Space Treaty, one of the most widely accepted international instruments, obliges governments to conduct space activities “<a href="https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/treaties/outerspacetreaty.html">for the benefit and in the interests of all countries</a>,” and with due regard to space activities of other nations. Though not expressly prohibited, destructive acts in space can have global impacts and are contrary to established principles of international law. </p>
<p>Despite the latest weapons test, there are ongoing initiatives to safeguard the safety, security and sustainability of outer space. For over three decades, the United Nations has <a href="https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3895439?ln=en">annually called on nations to prevent an arms race in outer space</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/were-drafting-a-legal-guide-to-war-in-space-hopefully-well-never-need-to-use-it-86677">We're drafting a legal guide to war in space. Hopefully we'll never need to use it</a>
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<p>Together with China, Russia itself has been an active supporter of a <a href="https://www.nti.org/education-center/treaties-and-regimes/proposed-prevention-arms-race-space-paros-treaty/">binding treaty to outlaw the use of force against space objects</a>. If this treaty had been adopted, it would have prohibited the very kind of act that was just undertaken.</p>
<p>Civil society initiatives to <a href="https://www.mcgill.ca/milamos/">clarify the law as it applies to military activities in outer space</a> are ongoing.</p>
<p>A letter — initiated by the Vancouver-based Outer Space Institute and signed by academics, policymakers and legal experts — addressed to the president of the UN General Assembly urged the adoption <a href="http://outerspaceinstitute.ca/docs/OSI_International_Open_Letter_ASATs_PUBLIC.pdf">of a treaty that would ban the testing of anti-satellite weapons</a>.</p>
<h2>Actions speak louder than words</h2>
<p>Space is widely recognized as being the “<a href="https://medium.com/s/story/space-is-the-ultimate-high-ground-thats-why-militaries-fund-astrophysics-67d7510c875">ultimate high ground</a>,” meaning that it holds significant strategic and military value. <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2297849-anti-satellite-weapons-will-further-tests-make-space-more-dangerous/">The U.S., China and India</a>, major space-faring nations, have also tested a variety of ASAT weapons and capabilities to destroy their respective objects in space.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Global News covers Russia’s weapon test.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Russia’s ASAT test is worrying as it may normalize unilateral actions in space that jeopardize the common interests of all countries. More worrying is the fact that this may not be the last action of its kind given the <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/russia-accuses-us-of-hypocrisy-over-satellite-destruction/a-59834986">disparity that often exists between the condemnations and actions undertaken by governments</a>. </p>
<p>However, space is also a shared global commons, which must be used in a responsible, safe and sustainable manner by all. Earlier this year, G7 leaders recognized that “<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/g7-nations-commit-to-the-safe-and-sustainable-use-of-space">the orbit of our planet is a fragile and valuable environment that is becoming increasingly crowded” and that “all nations must act together” to safeguard it</a>. </p>
<p>It is imperative the international community unites to dissuade tensions in outer space, and urgently halt all reckless and irresponsible acts that will impact present and future generations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172105/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Russia’s testing of an anti-satellite weapon risked the life of astronauts on the International Space Station and could have astronomical impacts on Earth.Kuan-Wei Chen, Executive Director, Centre for Research in Air and Space Law, McGill UniversityBayar Goswami, Arsenault Doctoral Fellow at the Institute of Air and Space Law, McGill UniversityRam S. Jakhu, Full Professor, Acting Director, Institute of Air and Space Law, McGill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1594862021-05-30T19:38:52Z2021-05-30T19:38:52ZDestination Moon: is it time for us to send astronauts back?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396329/original/file-20210421-19-id3tx6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=23%2C596%2C3874%2C2641&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Eugene Cernan on the Moon, December 13, 1972, during the Apollo 17 mission, the last manned flight to the Earth's natural satellite.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The series <a href="http://www.collectspace.com/news/news-102819a-for-all-mankind-apple-tv.html"><em>For All Mankind</em></a> (2019) is a fictional alternate history that imagines a world where the Soviet Union was the first power to send an astronaut to the moon. From that starting point, the two rival superpowers compete to establish their own lunar station. </p>
<p>Just a few short years later, the scenario is no fantasy. Fifty years after the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/apollo/missions/apollo11.html">Apollo 11 mission</a> in 2019 the United States announced its intention to return to the Moon in 2024. In light of the concept of <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337737874_Toward_a_definition_of_New_Space_The_entrepreneurial_perspective_New_Space_Vol_63_2018_pp_187-190">“New Space”</a>, this new ambition highlights a growing geostrategic competition, particularly given China’s precipitous rise.</p>
<h2>Artemis, one step ahead</h2>
<p>To succeed on this mission, NASA has promoted the Artemis program, a consortium led by the United States that brings together <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-international-partners-advance-cooperation-with-first-signings-of-artemis-accords/">eight other countries</a> – Australia, Canada, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom. NASA and Brazil signed a <a href="https://www.gov.br/aeb/pt-br/assuntos/noticias/brazil-becomes-the-tenth-nation-to-join-the-artemis-program">statement of intent</a> in December 2020 to join the program. Each participant will contribute to the completion of the mission with technical and scientific support.</p>
<p>NASA is also counting on the private sector, including the <a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-wins-nasa-artemis-moon-lander-contest">SpaceX Starship</a> (SN1), to fulfill the human landing system (HLS) program. The program will have three stages: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>Artemis I, an unmanned flight scheduled by the end of 2021.</p></li>
<li><p>Artemis II, a manned flight with the goal of positioning the spacecraft in orbit around the Moon in 2023.</p></li>
<li><p>Artemis III, which will launch the lunar lander with two astronauts in 2024.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>In Japan, the Toyota Group has partnered with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) to propose a <a href="https://www.toyota-europe.com/world-of-toyota/articles-news-events/2019/toyota-jaxa">pressurized lunar vehicle</a> that would participate in future missions of the international program.</p>
<p>China also has an ambitious program in the works – the January 2019 landing of the <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/china-change-4-historic-landing-moon-far-side-explained">Chang'e-4 spacecraft on the far side of the Moon</a> demonstrates its spectacular progress. In the summer of 2020, the China National Space Administration (CNSA) reiterated the country’s intention to create an <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202009/09/WS5f581650a310675eafc585c4.html">international lunar research station</a> (ILRS) as soon as 2036. Moscow signed a <a href="https://spacenews.com/china-russia-enter-mou-on-international-lunar-research-station/">memorandum of understanding</a> in March 2021 with China to create a lunar station, but no further details are known at this point.</p>
<p>India is another contender. While the country’s space program does not currently envision the construction of a lunar base, it is preparing astronauts for a <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/technology/isro-sets-up-a-team-to-study-technology/articleshow/73528155.cms">lunar mission</a>. However, critical failures such as the <a href="https://www.space.com/india-admits-moon-lander-crash.html">Chandrayaan-2 crash</a> have slowed down the program’s development. Along with the <a href="http://www.unoosa.org/documents/pdf/copuos/stsc/2019/tech-47E.pdf">Gaganyaan program</a>, the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) planned to send a manned flight to the Moon, but it will not occur before the next decade.</p>
<h2>Settling on the Moon, for what purpose?</h2>
<p>Some consider the Moon as a necessary step before a manned mission to Mars, serving as a <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna26408095">training ground</a> for astronauts and forming the basis for a long-term human presence. However, the differences between their respective environments limits the validity of this hypothesis: Mars has an atmosphere that changes the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/02/nasa-moon-mars-artemis/606499/">access conditions</a>. For the time being, these projects remain in the realm of wishful thinking.</p>
<p>Although no one really knows the possibility and profitability of mining activities on the Moon, groups such as the <a href="https://www.planetary.org/">Planetary Society</a> argue that there are significant resources that could favor such an enterprise.</p>
<p>In recent years, discoveries have indicated <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/10/26/927869069/water-on-the-moon-nasa-confirms-water-molecules-on-our-neighbors-sunny-surface?t=1619185737268">significant water-ice deposits</a> at the poles of the Moon. In a multitude of microcraters, 60% of the deposits would be set in the South Pole as <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1198-9">recent studies</a> suggest. Although no one has ventured to attempt a complete estimation, some research indicates that a significant volume of water is present – ranging from <a href="https://www.airspacemag.com/daily-planet/how-much-water-moon-180967751/">100 million to 1 billion tons for each polar area</a>. NASA’s interest in establishing a lunar station in this region is linked to the possibility of extracting water, a critical resource for sustainable human presence. However, the determination of water-ice <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/water-found-in-sunlight-and-shadow-on-the-moon/">morphology, concentration, distribution and abundance</a> remains essential, because the energy cost of its extraction depends on its nature. These data will determine the ability to execute any plan to exploit water-ice on the lunar surface.</p>
<p>The lunar soil could also conceal important reserves of <a href="http://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Preparing_for_the_Future/Space_for_Earth/Energy/Helium-3_mining_on_the_lunar_surface">helium-3</a>, whose volume would represent nearly 2.5 million tons according to <a href="https://www.lpi.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc2007/pdf/2175.pdf">Russian researchers</a>. Rare on Earth, this non-radioactive isotope could potentially serve as fuel for <a href="https://www.science.org.au/curious/space-time/mining-moon">nuclear fusion</a> reactors. But such reactors do not yet exist, and few people dare to make predictions about when they will be built. Very hypothetical to date, the use of helium-3 in the long term would require the design of a cost-effective extraction method with adequate infrastructure and the ability to transport it to Earth.</p>
<p>Furthermore, mining raises major legal issues as the United States has yet to sign the 1979 <a href="https://treaties.un.org/doc/Treaties/1984/07/19840711%2001-51%20AM/Ch_XXIV_02.pdf">Moon Treaty</a> along with China and Russia. On April 6, 2020, then-president Donald Trump issued an <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-encouraging-international-support-recovery-use-space-resources/">executive order</a> stating that the United States did not consider outer space to be part of global commons. In his first 100 days in office, President Joe Biden signed more than <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2021/politics/biden-executive-orders/">60 executive orders</a>, but had not yet indicated if there would be a change in the US’ position on space resources. </p>
<p>Finally, NASA has unveiled the <a href="https://gcn.com/articles/2020/10/20/lunanet.aspx">LunaNet</a> architecture in its <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/artemis_plan-20200921.pdf">Artemis program</a>. This device would facilitate the transfer of data between the Earth and the Moon, allowing astronauts to be alerted in real time when solar flares threaten space-based weather instruments. Complemented by positioning and navigation services, this architecture would secure human activities on the Moon.</p>
<h2>Limits and challenges</h2>
<p>Returning to the Moon implies significant budgetary efforts, even as the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic have hit world economies hard. NASA’s 2021-2025 budget for the Artemis program is assured until 2024, set at <a href="https://phys.org/news/2020-09-nasa-moon-billion.html">$28 billion</a>, including $16 billion dedicated to the lunar lander. As yet the <a href="https://spacenews.com/biden-administration-proposes-24-5-billion-budget-for-nasa-in-2022/">Biden administration</a> has not stated that it will increase spending to enable humans to return to the lunar surface, and it could be delayed until <a href="https://theconversation.com/artemis-how-ever-changing-us-space-policy-may-push-back-the-next-moon-landing-155981">after 2024</a>.</p>
<p>The political context of the current Moon project differs from that of the Apollo program in the 1960s. At that time, the United States wanted to assert its superpower status, and the program had bipartisan support from the start. The current NASA program has the support of Congress, but budget negotiations are always troubled in the United States, particularly with the current partisan divisions. While the Democratic party control the House and Senate, the margin is exceedingly thin, particularly in the Senate. Therefore, NASA’s program needs lasting political support to be successful.</p>
<p>Given the financial uncertainties, technological hurdles, and logistical obstacles, a successful implementation of the US space program faces a wide range of challenges. In the context of the Earth’s environmental crisis, therein lies a question: will this return to the Moon be sustainable or will it just be a last-ditch effort?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159486/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Florian Vidal works for the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>José Halloy ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Several current programs aim at sending humans back to the Moon. What would be the purpose, and what are the real prospects?Florian Vidal, Associate Fellow, Université Paris CitéJosé Halloy, Professeur de physique - Physics professor, Université Paris CitéLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1607572021-05-17T12:25:43Z2021-05-17T12:25:43ZIf a satellite falls on your house, space law protects you – but there are no legal penalties for leaving junk in orbit<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400832/original/file-20210514-13-1mq0r5w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C17%2C6000%2C3664&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's unlikely falling space junk will destroy property or kill a person. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/satellite-royalty-free-image/476204650?adppopup=true">Petrovich9/iStock via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On May 8, 2021, a piece of space junk from a Chinese rocket fell uncontrolled back to Earth and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/08/science/china-rocket-reentry-falling-long-march-5b.html">landed in the Indian Ocean near the Maldives</a>. A year ago, in May 2020, another Chinese rocket met the same fate when it plummeted out of control into the waters <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/13/21256484/china-rocket-debris-africa-uncontrolled-reentry-long-march-5b">off the West African coast</a>. No one knew when or where either of these pieces of space junk were going to hit, so it was a relief when neither crashed on land or injured anyone.</p>
<p>Space debris is any nonfunctional human-made object in space.
As a professor of <a href="https://sfis.asu.edu/timiebi-aganaba-jeanty">space and society focused on space governance</a>, I’ve noticed that there are three questions the public always asks when falling space debris gets into the news. Could this have been prevented? What would have happened if there was damage? And how will new commercial companies be regulated as space activities and launches <a href="https://www.euroconsult-ec.com/research/WS319_free_extract_2019.pdf">increase exponentially</a>?</p>
<p>For space law to be effective, it <a href="https://unoosa.org/pdf/pres/stsc2011/tech-35.pdf">needs to do three things</a>. First, regulation must prevent as many dangerous situations from occurring as possible. Second, there needs to be a way to monitor and enforce compliance. And finally, laws need to lay out a framework for responsibility and liability if things do go wrong. So, how do current laws and treaties around space stack up? They do OK, but interestingly, looking at environmental law here on Earth may give some ideas on how to improve the current legal regime with respect to space debris.</p>
<h2>What if a rocket landed on your house?</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400833/original/file-20210514-15-8pfz57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large white rocket on a launch pad." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400833/original/file-20210514-15-8pfz57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400833/original/file-20210514-15-8pfz57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400833/original/file-20210514-15-8pfz57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400833/original/file-20210514-15-8pfz57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400833/original/file-20210514-15-8pfz57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1340&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400833/original/file-20210514-15-8pfz57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400833/original/file-20210514-15-8pfz57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1340&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Two Chinese Long March 5b rockets, like the one seen here, have crashed into the ocean within the past year.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:%E9%95%BF%E5%BE%81%E4%BA%94%E5%8F%B7%E9%81%A5%E4%BA%8C%E7%81%AB%E7%AE%AD%E8%BD%AC%E5%9C%BA.jpg#/media/File:%E9%95%BF%E5%BE%81%E4%BA%94%E5%8F%B7%E9%81%A5%E4%BA%8C%E7%81%AB%E7%AE%AD%E8%BD%AC%E5%9C%BA.jpg">篁竹水声/WikimediaCommons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Imagine that, instead of landing in the ocean, the recent Chinese rocket crashed into your house while you were at work. What would current law allow you to do?</p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/treaties/introouterspacetreaty.html">1967 Outer Space Treaty</a> and <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/treaties/introliability-convention.html">1972 Liability Convention</a> – both adopted by the United Nations – this would be a government-to-government issue. The treaties declare that states are internationally responsible and liable for any damage caused by a spacecraft – even if the damage was caused by a private company from that state. According to these laws, your country wouldn’t even need to prove that someone had done something wrong if a space object or its component parts caused damage on the surface of the Earth or to normal aircraft in flight. </p>
<p>Basically, if a piece of space junk from China landed on your house, your own country’s government would make a claim for compensation through diplomatic channels and then pay you – if they chose to make the claim at all.</p>
<p>While the chances are slim to none that a broken satellite will land on your house, space debris has crashed onto land. In 1978, the Soviet Cosmos 954 satellite <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/feature/operation-morning-light-the-nuclear-satellite-almost-14411?page=1">fell into a barren region of Canada’s Northwest Territories</a>. When it crashed, it spread radioactive debris from its onboard nuclear reactor over a wide swath of land. A joint Canadian-American team began a cleanup effort that cost over CAD$14 million (US$11.5 million). The Canadians requested CAD$6 million from the Soviet Union, but the Soviets paid only CAD$3 million in the final settlement.</p>
<p>This was the first – and only – time the Liability Convention has been used when a spacecraft from one country has crashed in another. When the Liability Convention was put into use in this context, <a href="https://digitalcommons.law.yale.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1316&context=yjil">four governing norms emerged</a>. Countries have a duty to: warn other governments about debris; provide any information they could about an impending crash; clean up any damage caused by the craft; and compensate your government for any injuries that might have resulted.</p>
<p>There have been other instances where <a href="https://www.space.com/13049-6-biggest-spacecraft-falls-space.html">space junk has crashed back to Earth</a> – most notably when <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-12/four-decades-on-from-skylabs-descent-from-space/11249626">Skylab, a U.S. space station, fell and broke up</a> over the Indian Ocean and uninhabited parts of Western Australia in 1979. A local government jokingly fined NASA AUS$400 (US$311) for littering – a fine that NASA ignored, though it was eventually <a href="https://www.skymania.com/wp/nasas-litter-bill-paid-30-years-on/">paid by an American radio host in 2009</a>. But despite this and other incidences, Canada remains the only country to put the Liability Convention to use.</p>
<p>However, if you owned a small orbiting satellite that got hit by a piece of space junk, you and your government would have to prove who was at fault. Currently, though, there is <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-giant-piece-of-space-junk-is-hurtling-towards-earth-heres-how-worried-you-should-be-160254?">no globally coordinated space traffic management system</a>. With tens of thousands of tracked pieces of debris in orbit – and multitudes of smaller, untrackable pieces, figuring out what destroyed your satellite would be a very difficult thing to do. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400834/original/file-20210514-23-qydc5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An image of the Earth surrounded by a cloud of yellow dots." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400834/original/file-20210514-23-qydc5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400834/original/file-20210514-23-qydc5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400834/original/file-20210514-23-qydc5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400834/original/file-20210514-23-qydc5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400834/original/file-20210514-23-qydc5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400834/original/file-20210514-23-qydc5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400834/original/file-20210514-23-qydc5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Every dot in this image represents a known piece of space debris.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Debris-GEO1280.jpg#/media/File:Debris-GEO1280.jpg">NASA Orbital Debris Program/WikimediaCommons</a></span>
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<h2>Space pollution is the bigger problem</h2>
<p>Current space law has worked so far because the issues have been few and far between and have been dealt with diplomatically. As more and more spacecraft take flight, the risks to property or life will inevitably increase and the Liability Convention may get more use.</p>
<p>But risks to life and property are not the only concerns about a busy sky. While launch providers, satellite operators and insurance companies care about the problem of space debris for its <a href="https://www.bvp.com/atlas/why-removing-space-debris-requires-caution-and-action">effect on space operations</a>, space sustainability advocates argue that the <a href="https://theconversation.com/final-frontiers-space-13171">environment of space has value itself</a> and faces a much greater risk of harm than individuals on Earth. </p>
<p>The mainstream view is that degrading the environment on Earth through pollution or mismanagement is bad because of its <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/pollution/">negative impact on the environment or living beings</a>. The same is true for space, even if there is no clear direct victim or physical harm. In the <a href="https://www.jaxa.jp/library/space_law/chapter_3/3-2-2-1_e.html">Cosmos 954 settlement</a>, the Canadians claimed that since the Soviet satellite deposited hazardous radioactive debris in Canadian territory, this constituted “damage to property” within the meaning of the Liability Convention. But, as Article 2 of the Outer Space Treaty declares that no state can own outer space or celestial bodies, it is not clear whether this interpretation would apply in the event of harm to objects in space. Space is shaping up to be a new frontier on which the tragedy of the commons can play out.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nasa.gov/pdf/582393main_OCT-Orbital_Debris_TAGGED.pdf">Removing from orbit existing large objects</a> that could collide with one another would be a great place for governments to start. But if the United Nations or governments agreed on laws that define legal consequences for creating space debris in the first place and punishment for not following best practices, this could help mitigate future pollution of the space environment. </p>
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<p>Such laws would not need to be invented from scratch. The <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/pdf/publications/st_space_49E.pdf">2007 United Nations Space Debris Mitigation guidelines</a> already address the issue of debris prevention. While some countries have transferred these guidelines into national regulations, worldwide implementation is still pending, and there are <a href="http://www.esa.int/Safety_Security/Space_Debris/Mitigating_space_debris_generation">no legal consequences for noncompliance</a>.</p>
<p>The chances of a person being killed by a falling satellite are close to zero. On the off chance it does happen, current space law provides a pretty good framework for dealing with such an event. But just like during the early 20th century on Earth, current laws are focusing on the individual and ignoring the bigger picture of the environment – albeit a cold, dark and unfamiliar one. Adapting and enforcing space law so that it prevents and deters actors from polluting the space environment – and holds them accountable if they break these laws – could help avoid a trash-filled sky.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article originally published on May 17, 2021. It has been updated to clarify the history of falling space debris.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160757/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timiebi Aganaba does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Chances are small that space junk will destroy property or harm a person, and existing space law could deal with such an event. But current law doesn’t address the bigger problem of space pollution.Timiebi Aganaba, Assistant Professor of Space and Society, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.