tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/africa-climate-23615/articlesAfrica climate – The Conversation2023-06-25T11:09:53Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2067832023-06-25T11:09:53Z2023-06-25T11:09:53ZFive questions for African countries that want to build climate-resilient health systems<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531313/original/file-20230612-23-rcpr42.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Sudan has been beset by floods for the past four years. Its health system, like those in other African countries, will have to adapt to climate change.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">SIMON MAINA/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every day seems to bring a new headline about a devastating climate event. African countries aren’t spared. A “<a href="https://mg.co.za/thoughtleader/opinion/2022-04-19-flood-prone-durban-ill-equipped-to-weather-the-climate-crisis/">rain bomb</a>” in South Africa. <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/warming-worsened-west-africa-floods-that-killed-800-people/#">Flooding</a> in Nigeria. <a href="https://theconversation.com/cyclones-in-southern-africa-five-essential-reads-200371">Cyclones</a> battering Mozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe and Madagascar. <a href="https://theconversation.com/kenyas-seasonal-rains-keep-failing-what-needs-to-be-done-115635">Drought</a> in Kenya.</p>
<p>These events have enormous <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Planetary-Health-Protecting-Protect-Ourselves/dp/1610919661">health and social effects</a>, among them death, injuries, malnutrition and diseases (infectious and non-communicable). This all puts tremendous pressure on countries’ health systems, both in terms of caring for those affected and because facilities like hospitals and clinics are vulnerable to damage and destruction.</p>
<p>Extreme weather events, for example in South Africa’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.4102/phcfm.v14i1.3778">KwaZulu-Natal</a> and <a href="https://www.medicalbrief.co.za/floods-destroy-generators-at-two-eastern-cape-hospitals/">Eastern Cape</a> provinces, also disrupt energy supplies, communications, supply chains, the workforce and provision of essential services such as maternity and chronic care. </p>
<p>How, then, can African countries build more resilient primary healthcare systems as the effects of climate change worsen? We recently conducted a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667278223000299?via%3Dihub">scoping review</a> on primary healthcare and climate change in Africa and found very little evidence to guide health systems in answering this question. </p>
<p>We looked for any studies in the African context that investigated primary healthcare and climate change. The review mapped the available evidence onto the World Health Organisation’s (WHO’s) <a href="https://www.who.int/publications-detail-redirect/9789241565073">health system building blocks</a>: leadership and governance; the health workforce; the health information system; infrastructure and technology; service delivery; and health financing. </p>
<p>We identified five key questions that health systems must answer to build more resilient primary healthcare.</p>
<h2>1. What training do medical professionals need?</h2>
<p>Health professionals in most African countries receive barely any training related to the health and social effects of dramatic changes in weather patterns.</p>
<p>There are some moves to change this. The Southern African Association of Health Educationalists recently published a <a href="https://doi.org/10.4102/phcfm.v15i1.3925">position paper</a> calling for the integration of planetary health and environmental sustainability into health professions curricula in Africa. The World Organisation of Family Doctors has also launched a <a href="https://www.globalfamilydoctor.com/News/WONCAEnvironmentlaunchesplanetaryhealthcourse.aspx">global online training programme</a> on planetary health. </p>
<p>This kind of training should focus on how different health services – for instance nutrition, HIV, TB, malaria, immunisations, maternity – should adapt to the effects of climate change. It should also offer insights into how facilities can be better prepared for emergencies and extreme events.</p>
<p>But training new health professionals isn’t enough. Continuing professional development and in-service training is key too.</p>
<h2>2. What are the community’s key vulnerabilities?</h2>
<p>The primary healthcare system in Africa should be <a href="https://gh.bmj.com/content/4/Suppl_8/e001489">community-orientated</a>, focusing on the health needs of the whole community, not just those who use a particular facility. This kind of primary care has become policy in some health systems, <a href="https://doi.org/10.4102/phcfm.v12i1.2632">for instance</a> in South Africa’s Western Cape province. </p>
<p>The community-orientated approach has usually focused on addressing the <a href="https://www.who.int/health-topics/social-determinants-of-health#tab=tab_1">social determinants</a> of ill health such as early childhood development or education. Now, environmental determinants of health and key climate-related vulnerabilities must also be considered.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/africas-first-heat-officer-is-based-in-freetown-5-things-that-should-be-on-her-agenda-199274">Africa's first heat officer is based in Freetown – 5 things that should be on her agenda</a>
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<p>For example, <a href="https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Health-impacts-of-Eskoms-non-compliance-with-minimum-emissions-standards-Google-Docs.pdf">air pollution from coal-fired power stations</a> is a major cause of non-communicable diseases such as ischaemic heart disease, stroke, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer. </p>
<p>Building informal settlements in flood plains or having no trees in urban slums can increase vulnerability to floods and high temperatures. Floods can displace people and cause injuries as well as water-borne diseases such as <a href="https://health-e.org.za/2023/02/08/cholera-third-case-confirmed-in-gauteng/">cholera</a>. High temperatures can lead to dehydration, heat exhaustion and even <a href="https://www.medicalbrief.co.za/change-in-work-hours-suggested-after-heat-stroke-deaths/">death from heat stroke</a>.</p>
<h2>3. How can the health system track environmental changes?</h2>
<p>Health information systems traditionally collect data on health services and a population’s health needs. For instance, such systems can identify outbreaks of notifiable infectious conditions to support rapid responses.</p>
<p>But they rarely include indicators that warn of environmental challenges. </p>
<p>Primary health care facilities and services need to identify the particular climatic events that they are likely to face. For some this may be extreme temperatures or drought. For others it may be severe storms or cyclones, or sea level rise and storm surges. </p>
<p>They should also identify the most likely changes in the burden of disease linked to such events. For example, will they face an increase in climate migrants, heat-related conditions, water or vector borne infectious diseases, mental health problems or malnutrition? </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joclim.2023.100229">scoping review</a> did not find any African examples of health information systems tracking the changes or providing early warning of climate-related events.</p>
<h2>4. How can health systems build climate resilience?</h2>
<p>Primary healthcare facilities and services need to continue functioning in the face of environmental challenges, such as cyclones, and provide safe healthcare, for example with extreme heat. Facilities need robust infrastructure, lighting, water, heating and cooling, and energy supply. Services need healthcare workers, equipment, medication and supplies, and communications. </p>
<p>For example, a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2017.02.022">hybrid energy system</a> may improve resilience and mitigate the health system’s carbon footprint. Such systems may also provide resilience against power cuts. Health systems need to consider how they can design facilities and systems to withstand environmental challenges, respond to emergencies and continue offering essential services.</p>
<h2>5. What are the next steps?</h2>
<p>The scoping review reveals a widespread absence of evidence on how to address the issue of climate change in African primary healthcare. There’s a need for more research. </p>
<p>South Africa’s Stellenbosch University and the primary care and family medicine (<a href="https://primafamed.sun.ac.za/">PRIMAFAMED</a>) network in sub-Saharan Africa are studying the impact of climate change on primary healthcare, developing tools for facilities to identify their risks and vulnerabilities, and identifying the learning needs of primary care providers. </p>
<p>Health systems also need to explicitly address the risks of climate change. There are examples that others can learn from: for instance, the Department of Health and Wellness in South Africa’s Western Cape province has established a Climate Change Forum to develop policy on both mitigation (becoming carbon neutral by 2030) and adaptation (preparing for climate related events and challenges).</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206783/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bob Mash receives funding from the Flemish Interuniversity Council (VLIR), the SA Medical Research Council, the National Research Foundation, and World Diabetes Foundation. He is the President of the SA Academy of Family Physicians and coordinates the Primary Care and Family Medicine (PRIMAFAMED) network in Sub-Saharan Africa.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christian Lueme Lokotola receives funding from the Flemish Interuniversity Council (VLIR). He is coordinating the African Hub of climate change, migration and health network research (under the Flemish Interuniversity Council grant). He is an active associate member of Wonca Environment Group, Global Family Doctors Association, Primafamed (Primary Health Care and Family Medicine Association in Africa), Southern African Association of Health Educationalist (SAAHE) and Public Health Association of South Africa (PHASA).
</span></em></p>Primary health care systems must become more resilient as the effects of climate change worsen.Bob Mash, Distinguished Professor, Division of Family Medicine and Primary Care, Stellenbosch UniversityChristian Lueme Lokotola, Lecturer in Planetary Health, Division of Family Medicine and Primary Care, Stellenbosch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1720962021-11-19T11:59:34Z2021-11-19T11:59:34ZWhat African countries got out of COP26<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432817/original/file-20211119-20-19ja51o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In January 2015, a three-day rain displaced nearly quarter of a million people, devastated 64,000 hectares of land, and killed several hundred people in Malawi. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ashley Cooper/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The 26th United Nations climate change conference, COP26, recently came to an end, having aimed to get countries united in the fight against climate change. Climate change issues are likely to hit African countries the hardest though the continent is the least responsible for driving climate change. We asked Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla the AIMS-Canada Research Chair in Climate Change Science at AIMS-Rwanda, who is a lead author to the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 6</a> for <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/release-ipcc-6th-assessment-report-working-group-1">Working Group 1</a>, what the conference meant for African countries.</em></p>
<p><strong>What was the agenda that African countries took to COP26?</strong></p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://africangroupofnegotiators.org/">African Group of Negotiators</a>, the main African agenda items can be summarised as follows.</p>
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<li><p>Climate responsibility: Developed nations have to take their responsibilities and lead the way to reaching zero net emissions by 2050.</p></li>
<li><p>Climate finance and adaptation: Developed nations have to mobilise enough funds to finance adaptation in developing countries that are adversely affected by climate change. Finance architecture and transparency mechanisms should be put in place.</p></li>
<li><p>Transfer of technologies and capacity building: Developed nations must transfer sound environmental technologies to African countries for effective climate adaptation, mitigation and transition.</p></li>
<li><p>Long-term climate financing: Developed nations have to meet their <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/pre-2020">pre-2020 commitment</a> of US$100 billion per year and agree on long-term climate financing.</p></li>
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<p><strong>Which of their agenda items did they get through?</strong></p>
<p>It’s hard to say. There were a lot of announcements. For example many nations agreed to “phase down” fossil fuels in general. These are just promises and they will remain so unless they are included in their <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs">Nationally Determined Contributions</a> as formal commitments for full reporting and accountability. If they do, it will put the world on track for a best estimate of 2.4⁰C of global warming rather than 2.7⁰C it was before COP26.</p>
<p>We are very far from net-zero emissions, which is a carbon neutral world, by 2050. </p>
<p>The recently released <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">IPCC working group 1 report</a> dealing with the physical science basis of climate change is clear. Unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to close to 1.5°C or even 2°C will be beyond reach. This means tremendous efforts are needed to cut down emissions quickly, especially from the developed nations.</p>
<p>Therefore, the level of commitments made at COP26 is a total failure.</p>
<p>In terms of climate adaptation, some progress has been made. The annual commitment of US$100 billion from developed countries to support adaptation and mitigation in the least developed countries was not met. In 2019, the total climate finance was estimated at US$79.6 billion, with one quarter dedicated to adaptation. Now in the <a href="https://unfccc.int/documents/310475">Glasgow climate pact</a>, it is agreed that developed nations will at least double their collective provision of climate finance for adaptation to developing countries from 2019 levels by 2025. This will amount to around US$40 billion. However, this is insufficient compared to the wanted 50:50 balance between adaptation and mitigation. At the moment it is 40 to adaptation and 60 to mitigation.</p>
<p>Developed countries refuse to take any historical responsibility for the cost of losses and damages from the impacts of climate change, such as hurricanes and sea level rise.</p>
<p>Therefore, the financial outcome of COP26 is a glass half full, but it’s not far from a failure.</p>
<p><strong>Whose agenda did African countries come back with?</strong></p>
<p>It’s hard to determine, as there were a lot of compromises. But they certainly did not come back with their own agenda fulfilled. Many obstacles due to the high costs, the pandemic, the travel restrictions and other logistical challenges meant that African voices were marginalised.</p>
<p><strong>How much damage or good will somebody else’s agenda cause to African countries?</strong></p>
<p>A lot of damage. Africa is home for most of the least developed countries. These countries are not well equipped in terms of funds and infrastructure to face the adverse impacts of climate change. The recently <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/">released IPCC report</a> states in its chapter 12 with high confidence that increases in temperature extremes, including heat stress and heatwaves, coastal changes, including coastal flooding, erosion and sea level rise, and extreme precipitation events will be common in Africa by the mid-century.</p>
<p>The report also states that every fraction of degree matters as it leads to discernible changes in these hazards. Right now after Glasgow, the <a href="https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/36995/EGR21_CH4.pdf">best estimate</a> is that the world is on course to reach 2.4⁰C of global warming. This is very far from 1.5⁰C. Africa needs to raise its voice in such a way it will be put at the centre of the negotiation process.</p>
<p><strong>Is there room for improvement and where?</strong></p>
<p>The contributions and national commitments at COP26 are purely voluntary. The agreement is not binding. There are a lot of improvements to make if COP wants a stronger agreement.</p>
<p>Africa needs more coordination and more science. I think the African Union commission and other continental political bodies have to be more involved in the process.</p>
<p>The continent also needs to fund climate change science. For example, it’s hard to tell what would be the impact of 1.5⁰C, 2⁰C, 3⁰C, 4⁰C of global warming on sectors such as energy, water resources, agriculture, infrastructure and health. How these sectors are going to respond to these global warming levels is yet to be understood.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172096/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The financial outcome of COP26 is a glass half full, but it’s not far from a failure.Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla, AIMS-Canada Research Chair in Climate Change Science, African Institute for Mathematical SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1694262021-10-27T13:15:58Z2021-10-27T13:15:58ZAfrica’s first continent-wide survey of climate change literacy finds education is key<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425292/original/file-20211007-19127-1hwpz1u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A young woman fetching water. Climate change literacy rates in Nigeria range from 71% in Kwara to 5% in Kano.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Most Africans have heard of climate change and agree that it should be stopped. But far fewer feel that ordinary people can do something to stop it and even fewer understand its human causes. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://afrobarometer.org/sites/default/files/publications/Policy%20papers/ab_r7_policypaperno60_experience_and_awareness_of_climate_change_in_africa.pdf">recent survey by Afrobarometer</a> found that over two thirds of Africans perceived climate conditions for agricultural production had worsened over the past ten years. And among Africans who have heard of climate change, 71% say it needs to be stopped and 51% feel they can do something to help.</p>
<p>Climate change literacy includes understanding the human causes of climate change and its potential impact on the world. Without it, people will be less able to adapt to climate change impacts, including projected adverse economic and environmental impacts and potential opportunities.</p>
<p>Climate change literacy is important because it underpins more informed responses to climate change. Yet, until recently little was known about how climate change literacy rates differ among populations across Africa, what influences variation, and the factors that predict changes in climate change literacy rates. </p>
<p>Our research answers these questions and
<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01171-x">estimates climate change literacy rates across Africa</a>. Across 33 African countries, we found climate change literacy varies substantially between countries and at sub-national levels. Education level is the strongest predictor of climate change literacy.</p>
<h2>Drivers of climate change literacy</h2>
<p>Our analysis combined public opinion surveys and historical climate data across Africa.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425212/original/file-20211007-25-bqyw60.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of Africa with green colour indicating climate literacy" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425212/original/file-20211007-25-bqyw60.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425212/original/file-20211007-25-bqyw60.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425212/original/file-20211007-25-bqyw60.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425212/original/file-20211007-25-bqyw60.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425212/original/file-20211007-25-bqyw60.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425212/original/file-20211007-25-bqyw60.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425212/original/file-20211007-25-bqyw60.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Climate change literacy rates across Africa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Simpson, et al. 2021</span></span>
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<p>Our primary data source was <a href="https://afrobarometer.org/data">Afrobarometer</a>. The pan-African research institution conducted a public opinion survey in Africa, from 2016 to 2018, using nationally representative samples. It included 44,623 respondents across 33 countries, representing 61% of Africa’s population. </p>
<p>This survey measured climate change literacy, as well as perceptions of climate change and socio-demographic factors such as age, gender, education and wealth. We integrated these data with measurements of local climate trends (extreme heat, extreme rainfall, and severe drought) and climate-related disasters such as nationally significant floods. Combining these data sources allowed us to identify the effects of both social and environmental factors on climate change literacy. </p>
<p>The result was the most holistic picture to date of the knowledge dimension of climate change literacy and its predictors across Africa. </p>
<p>The average national climate change literacy rate in Africa is 37% – far lower than in Europe and North America, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-95885-9_31">where rates are generally over 80%</a>. </p>
<p>Climate change literacy varies substantially across African countries, as well as within countries. The climate change literacy rate is 66% in Mauritius and 62% in Uganda, but only 25% in Mozambique and 23% in Tunisia. </p>
<p>Of 394 sub-national regions surveyed, 8% (37 regions in 16 countries) have a climate change literacy rate lower than 20%, while only 2% (8 regions) score higher than 80%. </p>
<p>Striking differences exist within countries, too. For example, rates in Nigeria range from 71% in Kwara to 5% in Kano, and within Botswana from 69% in Lobatse to only 6% in Kweneng West. The average range between the highest and lowest climate change literacy rates for sub-national units is 33%.</p>
<p>By far the strongest predictor of climate change literacy is education. Compared to those with no formal schooling, those who completed a high school degree are 19% more likely to be climate change literate. Those who complete a university education are 36% more likely to be climate change literate. </p>
<p>Additionally, wealthier and more mobile Africans, as well as those living in urban areas, are more climate change literate. Poverty undermines climate change literacy. </p>
<p>We also found a difference according to gender. On average country-level climate change literacy rates are 12.8% lower for women than men. </p>
<p>When considering regional patterns of this gender gap, we found that 60% of countries sampled had a difference between men and women greater than 10%, and 11 of the 15 countries with the largest gender gap are in west Africa. This is a concern given that women are often more vulnerable to climate impacts <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2015.1005038">than men</a>. </p>
<p>This gender gap is a global phenomenon. <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629620302164">A study covering 54 countries</a> (only one African country) found women aged 15 years old were on average 4.7% less likely to be climate change literate than men.</p>
<p>We found that education is generally equally effective in increasing both men’s and women’s climate change literacy.</p>
<p>The changing environment also affects climate change literacy. Historical trends in precipitation, and perceived drought experiences, are associated with increased climate change literacy. However, we did not find that changing temperatures or the occurrence of climate change related hazards like floods had an effect on climate change literacy.</p>
<h2>Significance for Africa</h2>
<p>The results of our study can guide policy makers and civil society when intervening to increase climate change literacy. Africa is projected to undergo <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.06.029">substantial shifts</a> in urbanisation, education, gender equality, mobility and income in the near future. Rates of climate change literacy are therefore likely to evolve with these processes, as well as with changing climate hazards.</p>
<p>Large inequalities exist in climate change literacy between regions. And rates are lower in rural areas and among women. People living in poverty are also more vulnerable to climate change impacts and more likely to perceive changes in droughts and flooding. Yet these groups often have the least adaptive capacity, highlighting the urgency of enabling adaptation responses for these groups, including increasing access to financial and knowledge resources. </p>
<p>A focus on climate change literacy – especially through education – presents an important opportunity to put climate change on national and sub-national development agendas. Increased climate change literacy, together with indigenous and local knowledge practices, can lead to more informed climate change adaptation across Africa.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169426/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas P. Simpson receives funding from UK Government’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and the International Development Research Centre, Ottawa, Canada (Grant No. 109419 – 001). He is a Lead Author for Working Group 2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 6th Assessment Report.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Trisos receives funding from from UK Government’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and the International Development Research Centre, Ottawa, Canada (Grant No. 109419 – 001). He is a Coordinating Lead Author for Working Group 2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 6th Assessment Report.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthias Krönke works as a researcher for Afrobarometer. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Talbot M. Andrews does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Education, historical trends in precipitation, and perceived drought experiences predict increased climate change literacy, but rates are lower for women, those in rural areas, and low-income groups.Nicholas P. Simpson, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, University of Cape TownChristopher Trisos, Senior Research Fellow, University of Cape TownMatthias Krönke, PhD student in the Department of Political Studies, University of Cape TownTalbot M. Andrews, Assistant Professor, University of ConnecticutLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1706792021-10-26T14:40:38Z2021-10-26T14:40:38ZPasha 129: Africa’s climate concerns and the way forward<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428546/original/file-20211026-21-59jnc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">GettyImages</span> </figcaption></figure><p>Many African countries are under significant stress from climate change. Increasing emissions of greenhouse gases are putting the world on a path towards unacceptable warming and this has particularly <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop26-africas-challenges-must-steer-the-climate-change-conference-169740">serious implications</a> for the continent. The projected changes in climate are likely to have devastating impacts on agriculture and food security, human health and water supplies. </p>
<p>Greenhouse gases are the main cause of climate change. Human activities such as mining for fossil fuels, cutting down forests and farming livestock all contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. Though Africa emits the least of these emissions, the continent is most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. </p>
<p>It is critical for countries to acknowledge pledges they made at the UN climate conference in Paris in 2015. Countries must reduce greenhouse gas emissions, strengthen climate adaptation and resilience and scale up financial support for climate action. </p>
<p>In today’s episode of Pasha, Portia Adade Williams, a research scientist at the CSIR-Science and Technology Policy Research Institute, and Victor Ongoma, an assistant professor at the Université Mohammed VI Polytechnique, discuss what African countries must do to adapt and to mitigate the effects of climate change. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop26-africas-challenges-must-steer-the-climate-change-conference-169740">COP26: Africa's challenges must steer the climate change conference</a>
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<p><strong>Photo:</strong>
“A view of a submerged Roberts Camp after the unprecedented rise of water levels in Lake Baringo. The flooding situation in Rift Valley lakes, exacerbated by climate change, has led to displacement of thousands of people from their homes and work.” By James Wakibia/SOPA Images/LightRocket via <a href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/view-of-a-submerged-roberts-camp-after-the-unprecedented-news-photo/1235971114?adppopup=true">Getty Images</a></p>
<p><strong>Music</strong>
“Happy African Village” by John Bartmann, found on <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/John_Bartmann/Public_Domain_Soundtrack_Music_Album_One/happy-african-village">FreeMusicArchive.org</a> licensed under <a href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">CC0 1</a>.</p>
<p>“African Moon” by John Bartmann, found on <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/John_Bartmann/Public_Domain_Soundtrack_Music_Album_One/happy-african-village">FreeMusicArchive.org</a> licensed under <a href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">CC0 1</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170679/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
African countries are playing their part in fighting climate change but western nations need to come to the party.Ozayr Patel, Digital EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1704912021-10-26T14:24:09Z2021-10-26T14:24:09ZFive climate change messages from the African continent<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428527/original/file-20211026-27-k5hf3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Youth environmental activists take part in a walk to demand for Climate Justice in Kenya. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brian Ongoro/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The outcome of the global climate change conference, <a href="https://ukcop26.org/">COP26</a>, and the world’s willingness to take the tough decisions necessary to contain global warming, will have bigger consequences for Africa than for most other continents. It is in Africa that the impact is already most destabilising. </p>
<p>And yet the continent’s 54 countries will struggle to make themselves heard. The critical negotiations will, as usual, be between the big economies; the US, EU, China, India. </p>
<p>A recent conference jointly hosted by the Royal African Society, International Crisis Group and Africa Confidential on <a href="https://royalafricansociety.org/event/climate-conflict-demography-in-africa/">Climate, Conflict and Demography in Africa</a> sought to give African countries a louder voice. It identified <a href="https://royalafricansociety.org/climate-conflict-and-demography-in-africa-conference-summary-of-co-chairs-conclusions/">five key messages</a> for African governments, some for them to take to COP26, others for them to take home and act on themselves. Each needs attention if African governments are to be able to mitigate, adapt to and manage climate change in the coming critical decade.</p>
<p><strong>Measure change</strong></p>
<p>African countries need to measure the scale of environmental change better, to understand what is happening. The continent is already on the front line of the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1280367/">impact of climate change</a>, despite having contributed almost nothing to the problem. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop26-africas-challenges-must-steer-the-climate-change-conference-169740">COP26: Africa's challenges must steer the climate change conference</a>
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<p>Increasingly erratic patterns of rainfall have caused both droughts and floods across southern Africa, devastating tropical storms including <a href="https://www.oxfam.org/en/after-storm-one-year-cyclone-idai">Cyclone Idai</a> hit Mozambique in 2019, while locust swarms caused desperate food shortages in the Horn of Africa. </p>
<p>Combined with rapid <a href="https://qz.com/africa/1099546/population-growth-africans-will-be-a-third-of-all-people-on-earth-by-2100/">population growth</a> in many African countries, pressure on both natural and human resources has steadily increased. Shortages of farmable land, intensifying urbanisation and growing competition between <a href="https://pubs.iied.org/10208iied">farmer and herder communities</a> all put strain on traditional mechanisms for managing local conflicts. </p>
<p>These strains need to be measured, so African communities can prepare better to manage the changes. Countries with existing expertise must help.</p>
<p><strong>Put pressure on emitters</strong></p>
<p>African governments’ top priority at COP26 must be to pressure the big emitters of carbon to take faster action to slow and stop climate change. The US, Europe, China and India need to speed up their transition out of fossil fuels. If Africans focus simply on getting more money, they will still have to pay for climate change in terms of the consequences. </p>
<p>The stresses that climate change brings can very quickly worsen existing social, economic and political tensions and turn them into violent conflict. There is evidence that this is already happening around <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/climate-change-and-violent-extremism-lake-chad-basin-key-issues-and-way-forward">Lake Chad</a>, in <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/sahel/b154-le-sahel-central-theatre-des-nouvelles-guerres-climatiques">the Sahel</a> and in <a href="https://www.eip.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/csen_policy_paper_climate_change_and_security_in_the_horn_of_africa.pdf">the Horn of Africa</a>. </p>
<p><strong>Money matters</strong></p>
<p>Of the <a href="https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/100_billion_climate_finance_report.pdf">US$100 billion per year pledge</a>, confirmed in Paris, only a fraction has been delivered. Few African governments have the financial or administrative resources to undertake the scale of mitigation and adaptation action necessary to manage the pressures created by climate change.</p>
<p>This lack of resources and capacity also explains why Africa attracts a disproportionately small percentage of available climate finance, <a href="https://www.afdb.org/fr/news-and-events/africa-must-not-be-short-changed-by-climate-finance-says-expert-panel-at-cop24-18884">only around 3%</a>. With too few credible or eligible projects to attract investors, they tend to put the money elsewhere. So multilateral agencies and foreign governments must help too.</p>
<p><strong>Coordinate efforts</strong></p>
<p>African governments themselves must take a whole-of-government approach to tackling climate change. Too many leave it to the environment ministry and fail to mobilise all departments -– finance, defence, transport, energy, industry -– to take the necessary actions. A lack of resources does not absolve them from policy incoherence. </p>
<p>It is <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop26-whats-the-point-of-this-years-un-climate-summit-in-glasgow-167509">domestic political pressure</a> on national governments more than international obligations or summits that will decide how far countries are willing to go to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<p>Public pressure on climate issues themselves is often weak in Africa, but the practical consequences –- the increased conflict, the political discontent –- speak louder than words. Governments would be wise to listen and start making changes.</p>
<p><strong>Target investment</strong></p>
<p>The money itself needs to be invested in the right things: a fair energy transition, education to develop the skills needed for climate response, and action to sustain biodiversity, forests and the natural environment by making it economically viable for the people who live there. </p>
<p>African countries certainly need to invest wherever they can in renewable energy. But that alone will not solve the “energy starvation” that is inhibiting development and worsening poverty and conflict on the continent, as <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WSqIU97W4Q">Nigerian Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo</a> argued at our conference. Developed countries, including China, can better afford to transition more swiftly to cleaner power and need to support Africa’s own efforts to do the same.</p>
<p>What happens in Africa rightly concerns the whole world. The conference in Glasgow will provide an invaluable platform for African countries. What they say as equal members of the global community should be listened to. Real action is more urgent for African countries that those that can better cope with the environmental stresses and political strains that climate change causes. If people can no longer find a living in their own countries, they will have little choice but to move elsewhere, or be pushed into conflict that will risk spreading to neighbouring regions. So it is in everyone’s interests to support African countries in addressing its climate challenges.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170491/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Westcott is director of the Royal African Society, a not-for-profit charity. </span></em></p>Five aspects need attention if African governments are to be able to mitigate, adapt to and manage climate change in the coming critical decade.Nicholas Westcott, Research Associate, Centre for International Studies and Diplomacy, SOAS, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1492872020-11-10T14:41:49Z2020-11-10T14:41:49ZCape Town’s climate strategy isn’t perfect, but every African city should have one<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368538/original/file-20201110-13-ody7ao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fynbos, the biodiverse shrubland in Cape Town, is thought to have the third highest carbon stored per square metre for any biome in South Africa. It must be protected.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It may take an extreme heatwave, a mega wildfire or a severe coastal storm to begin to appreciate the dangers of climate change. </p>
<p>Africa is likely to be the continent <a href="https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/december-2018-march-2019/global-warming-severe-consequences-africa">hit hardest by climate change</a>. The region is vulnerable to <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-warming-has-already-raised-the-risk-of-more-severe-droughts-in-cape-town-107625">droughts</a>, <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32777515/">heat</a> and <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956247808089156">floods</a> and many countries have a low capacity for adaptation because of poor governance and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-50726701">poverty, limiting individual choices</a>. </p>
<p>Despite this threat, <a href="https://www.c40.org/cities">only 13 cities in Africa are C40 cities</a> – cities committed to taking measurable climate action. Only five in South Africa have climate change strategies. The aim of a climate change strategy is to outline actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change. </p>
<p><a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/solutions/adaptation-mitigation/">Mitigation</a> includes reducing emissions and enhancing the sinks of greenhouse gases. Some examples include shifts to renewable energy and ecosystem restoration. <a href="https://www.epa.gov/arc-x/strategies-climate-change-adaptation">Adaptation</a> is the adjustment of natural or human systems to moderate harm from the impacts of climate change. This could be in the form of storing rainwater, diversifying crops to improve drought resilience, and retreating from coastal risk areas or river flood zones.</p>
<h2>Cape Town</h2>
<p>Cape Town is the latest African city to redraft its climate change strategy. According to a risk and vulnerability <a href="https://oneworldgroup.co.za/oneworld-projects/climate-change-assessment-capetown/">assessment,</a> Cape Town faces many challenges. These include a significant increase in temperatures, long-term decrease in rainfall, changes in rainfall seasonality, more extreme heat days and heat waves, and coastal erosion. Global warming has already <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-warming-has-already-raised-the-risk-of-more-severe-droughts-in-cape-town-107625">raised the risk</a> of more severe droughts in Cape Town threefold.</p>
<p>This <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1sKKefq3UIcFSpIAFSw8_EtCVbGmlvGQ5/view?usp=sharing">new draft strategy</a> contains 35 goals. For adaptation, the goals focus on rising temperatures, water scarcity, water excess, sea level rise and fire risk. For mitigation they focus on clean energy, zero emissions, sustainable transport, inclusivity and the circular waste economy. The strategy also looks at cross-cutting issues, like funding mechanisms and communication strategies. </p>
<p>The city does well to acknowledge that bold action needs to be taken now to prevent the worst climate change impacts. It is appropriate that the strategy aims for carbon neutrality by 2050 and addresses sustainability issues, such as <a href="http://www.capetown.gov.za/City-Connect/Have-your-say/Issues-open-for-public-comment/draft-climate-change-strategy">spatial transformation through dense and transit-oriented growth and development</a> to support an efficient transport system. </p>
<p>But there are some gaps in the strategy. As researchers active in conservation and ecological restoration, we have studied the draft from an ecological perspective. Our <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1pxEWtDKSxZnn7foAw9AqtNEqOSrl4GdU/view?usp=sharing">main concerns</a> are that the role of nature in the proposed climate action is missing, and the strategy as it stands is self-defeating. Natural processes are misunderstood and incorrectly represented, especially as relating to biodiversity conservation and wildfire risk management. We have some suggestions that other cities could consider when drawing up similar strategies. </p>
<h2>A startling omission</h2>
<p>The city of Cape Town encompasses nearly 2,500km² of land which includes natural ecosystems. Some of the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0254629910001390">most important biodiversity</a> in South Africa and globally is located within its bounds. South Africa recognises the value of this biodiversity and is a <a href="https://www.cbd.int/rio/">signatory</a> to <a href="http://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=12813&gclid=Cj0KCQiAhZT9BRDmARIsAN2E-J1rHQrQFnaCELOn7zfCdWY9Hjb79khj0frSc4-NtjkedZlO0UJWljAaAtyEEALw_wcB">several international agreements</a> that commit to conservation, halting species extinctions and sustainable development.</p>
<p>The draft strategy fails to sufficiently highlight the role of biodiversity and natural ecosystems in climate action. The city acknowledges the importance of nature and that it needs to be retained, restored, expanded and optimised. But none of the 35 goals make the link between ecosystems and climate change. Another South African municipality, eThekwini, encompassing the city of Durban, <a href="http://www.durban.gov.za/City_Services/energyoffice/Documents/DCCS%20Biodiversity%20Theme%20Report.pdf">achieves this</a> in a climate change strategy that specifically includes biodiversity.</p>
<p>Natural ecosystems help to <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/environment/nature/info/pubs/docs/climate_change/en.pdf">stabilise climate</a> and restoring them <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2019.0104">mitigates climate change</a>. They deliver services such as clean water and <a href="https://www.cbd.int/doc/publications/cbd-ts-86-en.pdf">carbon sequestration</a>. The United Nations recognises the role of biodiversity in stabilising climate and has declared that the next decade will be the <a href="https://www.decadeonrestoration.org/">Decade on Ecosystem Restoration 2021-2030</a>.</p>
<p>Nature conservation and restoration are inexpensive tools for climate action according to both the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/environment/nature/info/pubs/docs/climate_change/en.pdf">European Commission</a> and the <a href="https://www.iucn.org/news/climate-change/201812/protecting-climate-protecting-nature">UN</a>. Many nations have pursued conservation and climate action policies <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2019.0121">separately</a>. The result is a failure both to halt biodiversity loss and mitigate climate change. Research shows that climate change mitigation and nature conservation <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2019.0121">require much higher targets</a> for environmental protection. One solution is to streamline these policies. </p>
<p>Cape Town is a case in point. In their proposed climate strategy, none of the goals explicitly deal with biodiversity, conservation or ecosystem restoration. Some of the proposed goals even undermine them. </p>
<h2>Business unusual</h2>
<p>Cape Town has the second highest number of plant extinctions <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01810-6">worldwide</a>. It is crucial that the city prevents further extinction by acquiring and restoring reserves for indigenous species. </p>
<p>To include nature in climate action, goals must make provision for ecosystem restoration, such as <a href="http://www.acdi.uct.ac.za/socio-economic-benefits-ecological-infrastructure-sebei">clearing invasive alien trees to improve water security</a>. <a href="http://pza.sanbi.org/vegetation/fynbos-biome">Fynbos</a>, the biodiverse shrubland unique to the area, is thought to have the third highest carbon stored per square metre for any biome in South Africa. It must be protected and restored.</p>
<p>One issue of grave concern is the city’s approach to wildfire risk management in this strategy. There is a stated commitment to suppress fires in natural ecosystems, despite acknowledging that fires are a natural part of fynbos ecosystems. Instead of suppression, which increases risk of mega wildfires, the approach should be to perform ecological burns in natural areas and remove invasive alien trees. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/257198227_Mega-fires_tipping_points_and_ecosystem_services_Managing_forests_and_woodlands_in_an_uncertain_future">Fire suppression approaches</a> have proven disastrous in <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/capetimes/news/knysna-fires-fuelled-by-invasive-pines-says-study-16929195">Knysna</a>, Australia and California. </p>
<h2>A flawed strategy?</h2>
<p>In the strategy, the City of Cape Town outlines a vision of becoming a climate resilient city that is resource efficient and carbon neutral. It also says that this vision is unrealistic, and that falling short of targets is likely. </p>
<p>Any strategy that has a self defeating vision is not one that should be supported. It would be more productive to adopt a clear vision that can be realised, taking advantage of affordable climate actions such as conservation and ecosystem restoration. </p>
<p>South Africa is known globally for its <a href="http://www.water-alternatives.org/index.php/allabs/211-a6-2-8/file">progressive legislation</a> in acknowledging nature in water resource management. This is an impressive legacy, one that should be followed.</p>
<p>To protect the most vulnerable, African cities must work hard at reducing emissions and improving resilience. They must do this through conserving remaining natural ecosystems and <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-reasons-why-restoring-nature-is-the-most-important-endeavour-of-our-time-147365">restoring</a> degraded ones, <em>as well as</em> exploring renewable energy and technological advancements. This will enable people in cities to enjoy dual benefits: improved resilience to climate change, as well as better air quality, recreational opportunities, health and well-being.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149287/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alanna Rebelo has received funding from the Danish International Development Agency for research into the benefits of investing in ecological infrastructure. She is affiliated with Friends of Tokai Park. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karen Joan Esler receives funding from the Danish National Development Agency and the Water JPI (local funder: Water Research Commission), focusing on the benefits of investing in ecological infrastructure and nature-based solutions for water management respectively.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Rebelo is affiliated with Friends of Tokai Park, adviser to the Forestry Research Commission, Western Leopard Toad Management Committtee. . </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Samways and Patricia Holmes do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cape Town’s new climate strategy is a good start. But it falls short when it comes to nature.Alanna Rebelo, Postdoctoral researcher, Stellenbosch UniversityKaren Joan Esler, Distinguished Professor of Conservation Ecology, Stellenbosch UniversityMichael Samways, Professor, Conservation Ecology & Entomology, Stellenbosch UniversityPatricia Holmes, plant ecologist, Stellenbosch UniversityTony Rebelo, Scientist, South African National Biodiversity InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/693752016-12-08T13:27:44Z2016-12-08T13:27:44ZAfrica should be worried about the expanding tropics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149026/original/image-20161207-15334-wzgrxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Tropic of Capricorn sign in Namibia. Expansion of the tropics will have huge implications for people and nature.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In school, we learnt that the tropical zone is defined as the hot region of our planet – between the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn. But the more important <a href="https://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/research/equable/hadley.html">climatic boundary</a> between tropical and temperate climates is bounded by the slightly larger region covering about 30 degrees latitude either side of the Equator. </p>
<p>The tropics are characterised by warm to hot temperatures throughout the year. Importantly, <a href="http://thebritishgeographer.weebly.com/the-climate-of-tropical-regions.html">latitudinal changes in temperature are small</a> compared with regions outside the tropics. Rainfall is largely abundant but it becomes increasingly seasonal with distance from the equator.</p>
<p>The tropical zone is <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.251/abstract">expanding poleward</a> at a rate unprecedented in perhaps hundreds of thousands of years. This has been referred to as Earth’s <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/the-mystery-of-the-expanding-tropics-1.19271">bulging waistline</a>. </p>
<p>Relative to the 1979 baseline, the tropics have expanded poleward <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Hanh_Nguyen40/publication/259543617_The_expanding_tropics_A_critical_assessment_of_the_observational_and_modeling_studies/links/53e41f550cf25d674e94b648.pdf">56km to 111km per decade in each hemisphere</a>. If this rate continues then we may witness an expansion of 850km by 2100. This is roughly equivalent to the distance from <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/the-mystery-of-the-expanding-tropics-1.19271">Rome to London</a>.</p>
<p>Expansion of the tropics has massive implications for <a href="http://stateofthetropics.org/wp-content/uploads/Essay-5-Isaac-and-Turton.pdf">societies, economies and the natural world</a> as Earth’s climatic zones shift poleward. Both human and natural systems will be forced to adapt to new climatic conditions. In particular, there will be unprecedented heat for hundreds of millions of people in the tropics as global warming accelerates.</p>
<p>Africa has the largest tropical footprint among the continents and is, therefore, severely threatened by expanding tropics. Over 80% of the continent lies within the band 30 degrees either side of the equator. African nations will be particularly vulnerable due to their <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-africa-is-particularly-vulnerable-to-climate-change-41775">lower socioeconomic development</a>.</p>
<h2>The ripple effect</h2>
<p>The poleward edges of the expanding tropics contain a large region dominated by high pressure atmospheric systems throughout the year. This dry subtropical zone is associated with the <a href="http://www.mapsofworld.com/world-desert-map.htm">world’s warm deserts</a> and is also shifting poleward as the tropics grow.</p>
<p>There is growing concern about the poleward shift of this <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/the-mystery-of-the-expanding-tropics-1.19271">dry subtropical zone</a> into highly populated regions that have generally enjoyed a more temperate climate. Threatened regions include southern California, the Mediterranean Basin countries and southern parts of Africa and Australia.</p>
<p><a href="http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2011/02/03/icesjms.fsq198.short">A compelling study</a> found that the dry subtropics may expand by as much as 30% by 2100. This will have dire consequences for water security, food production and biodiversity in many adjacent temperate regions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149024/original/image-20161207-25746-1knscut.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149024/original/image-20161207-25746-1knscut.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149024/original/image-20161207-25746-1knscut.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149024/original/image-20161207-25746-1knscut.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149024/original/image-20161207-25746-1knscut.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149024/original/image-20161207-25746-1knscut.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149024/original/image-20161207-25746-1knscut.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149024/original/image-20161207-25746-1knscut.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Mediterranean climates of the world are experiencing drying and warming as the edge of dry subtropical zone - located near 30N and 30S shifts poleward.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Steve Turton</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The effects of latitudinal shifts in climate zones will be most obvious in populated <a href="http://stateofthetropics.org/wp-content/uploads/Essay-5-Isaac-and-Turton.pdf">temperate regions outside the tropics</a>, such as southern Europe and southwestern parts of the US.</p>
<h2>Impact on climate and species</h2>
<p>The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap22_FINAL.pdf">rainfall projections</a> for Africa this century are consistent with an expanding tropics. Projections include declining rainfall in the north and south – but particularly for the southwest of the continent. Regions nearer the equator and the Horn of Africa may expect more rainfall.</p>
<p>Africa’s <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap22_FINAL.pdf">temperature projections</a> for this century are alarming, especially for the high “business as usual” emission scenario. The entire continent will warm up with marked temperature increases projected for the interior. Hundreds of millions of people will be subjected to unprecedented average temperatures and more prolonged heat waves.</p>
<p>For mega-cities located in the zone of maximum heat like Lagos in Nigeria and Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo, there are simply no existing <a href="https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/climate-projections/climate-analogues/analogues-explorer/">climate analogues</a> of what their climate may be like by mid century.</p>
<p>Humans will not be the only ones being effected. Many plant and animal species are <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/333/6045/1024">moving poleward</a> in an attempt to stay within their preferred environmental conditions. A classic example is <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v399/n6736/full/399579a0.html">butterflies</a>.</p>
<p>However, many species – especially in the tropics – may not be able to keep pace with the changing climatic conditions and could experience <a href="http://stateofthetropics.org/wp-content/uploads/Essay-5-Isaac-and-Turton.pdf">population declines or extinction</a>. </p>
<p>Species surviving on high mountain tops <a href="https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/extinction-countdown/how-will-climate-change-affect-mountain-gorillas/">like gorillas for example</a> – where there is limited higher cooler space available – are particularly vulnerable to global warming. They also face an uncertain future.</p>
<h2>Running out of land</h2>
<p>As the tropics move poleward, the dry subtropical zone will begin to squeeze adjacent, wetter temperate zones in both northern and southern Africa. These are highly important population and agricultural areas and also contain two globally significant <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v403/n6772/full/403853a0.html">“biodiversity hotspots”</a> – the African part of the Mediterranean Basin and the <a href="http://whc.unesco.org/en/list/1007">Cape Floristic Region</a> at the south-western extremity of South Africa. </p>
<p>For both these regions there are simply no suitable land areas for ecosystems and their species to move poleward to keep pace with projected warming and drying trends. The Mediterranean Sea to the north and <a href="http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/howmanyoceans.html">Southern Ocean</a> to the south, provide formidable boundaries for the future movement of many land species. In the case of the Cape Floristic Region, the next land stop is frigid Antarctica.</p>
<p>We desperately need to work out ways to drastically reduce our global greenhouse gas emissions. If we are to slow, or preferably reverse, the expansion of the tropics and overheating of low latitude regions, we need to act or there will be serious consequences for all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69375/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steve Turton has previously received funding from the Australian Government.</span></em></p>The tropics are expanding at an unprecedented rate. This will have massive implications for societies, economies and the natural world.Steve Turton, Adjunct Professor of Environmental Geography, CQUniversity AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/685242016-11-09T12:16:00Z2016-11-09T12:16:00ZWhy a Trump victory bodes ill for Africa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145233/original/image-20161109-19051-jpbjm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump's election is bad news for the African continent.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mike Segar/Reuters</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Like many, I didn’t think it could be true. <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/">President Donald J Trump</a> just seemed so implausible given the many profoundly concerning revelations about the Republican Party nominee’s personal views on women, the state, migration and migrants, Muslims, and even taxes. How, in 2016, could an individual who thinks it’s okay to grope women, build a wall to keep migrants out, ban Muslims, call Mexicans rapists, and brag about avoiding taxes be <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-fear-election-63492">at all appealing</a> to the American electorate? </p>
<p>Well, that implausibility has become the new reality. The world will be ruminating over this for some time to come. </p>
<p>I won’t lie, I am profoundly concerned about <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/09/world/donald-trumps-victory-promises-to-upend-the-international-order.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=span-abc-region&region=span-abc-region&WT.nav=span-abc-region">the implications of Trump’s election for international affairs</a>, and particularly for American foreign policy in Africa. Here is why.</p>
<h2>An inward looking US</h2>
<p>A key strategy for President-elect Trump is to turn the US inward, both economically and politically. Many of his economic policies reflect a mercantilist perspective on economic development. This can be summed up as being the opposite to free trade. </p>
<p>Trump <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/04/upshot/donald-trump-trashes-nafta-but-unwinding-it-would-come-at-a-huge-cost.html">is on record</a> opposing the Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal and wishes to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement to improve the context for American business. One can only assume that such logic will persist and extend into areas like the <a href="http://trade.gov/agoa/">African Growth and Opportunities Act</a>. This gives certain African exports preferential access to the American market. If this agreement is cancelled, African producers will lose tariff free access to an important market to sell their goods – likely leading to job losses and economic decline. </p>
<p>Other signs of the turn inward can be seen in his desire to focus on domestic infrastructure projects as a means of growing the American economy rather than on international cooperation agreements with other states. </p>
<p>Love it or hate it, American financial capital is important to African development. In 2015 alone US <a href="http://www.usnews.com/opinion/economic-intelligence/2015/03/24/china-beating-us-in-race-to-invest-in-africa">$14 billion</a> poured in. Having less investment coming to African states does not spell good news regardless of how much some believe China pitches in.</p>
<p>Further, unlike the Obama administration which believed that it maintained a degree of responsibility for assisting development in other states, Trump has given no indication that he or anyone within his inner circle holds similar views. With the economic turn inwards and the focusing of American resources on its narrowly defined “self-interest”, I hazard to guess that US development assistance will also be affected. </p>
<h2>Increased divisions</h2>
<p>To gain votes President-elect Trump sought to use immigration and migrants, particularly Muslims and Latinos, as a wedge to reinforce stereotypes and normalise prejudice. For a continent beset by the legacies of stereotypes and prejudice, this can hardly be a good sign of things to come for Africa in terms of its relations with the US. </p>
<p>We know that in contexts where people turn away from each other and seek to marginalise difference politically and economically, extremism and hatred emerge. This will do little to stem radicalism on the continent and the growing disquiet in race, ethnic, and religious relations between countries.</p>
<h2>The threat to international security</h2>
<p>International security and conflict under a Trump administration is probably the most worrying facet of his election. In international relations speak, Trump is what we call a “hawk”. This is someone who seeks to use power to dominate and coerce others into doing their bidding.</p>
<p>Here is a man who <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21709565-hillary-clintons-foreign-policy-would-be-similar-barack-obamas-donald-trumps-would-be?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ed/worldshaking">believes</a> the world needs more nuclear weapons rather than fewer. He’s antagonistic towards China and Iran, and believes the use of force is the best way to solve conflict. </p>
<p>We can expect an American foreign policy to be dominated even more by questions of security than it is now. And, I fear, the use of force will be far more readily considered and employed that it seems to have been for the last eight years. </p>
<p>The implications of this for Africa are real as a number of states continue to deal with civil or insurgency conflict. How the US under a Trump administration will engage in conflict is a big and concerning question.</p>
<h2>Collective action will be difficult</h2>
<p>Overall, the election of Trump spells a difficult road ahead for global cooperation around important collective issues, like climate change. Trump <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/wild-donald-trump-quotes/13/">believes that climate change is a Chinese invention</a> and <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-36401174">has committed to cancelling</a> the Paris Climate Change Agreement.</p>
<p>In a moment where the international community needs to be coming together to solve collective problems, President-elect Trump appears more interested in taking the US on its own path. After eight years of this under George W. Bush, we know what the consequences will be. Deferring action on climate change will have disastrous consequences for states battling related problems like drought, extreme weather events and rising sea levels. </p>
<p>Sadly, African states will suffer in this context of decreased global cooperation and appreciation for the common but differentiated responsibility that developed countries, like the US, maintain. In a new era of crass power politics, African states will only be marginalised further from western dominated decision-making.</p>
<p>What’s the positive coming from this moment for Africa? Not much – other than that the checks and balances within the American political system will not give Trump a blank cheque to do with as he pleases. This is true even though Republicans remain dominant in the <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/08/politics/congress-balance-of-power-2016-election/index.html">country’s other legislative branches</a>. </p>
<p>Sadly, I foresee a global order emerging that will be less about cooperation and more defined by division.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68524/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David J Hornsby does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A key strategy for President-elect Trump is to turn the US inward, both economically and politically. This bodes badly for Africa.David J Hornsby, Associate Professor in International Relations & Assistant Dean of Humanities, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/616002016-07-11T14:33:34Z2016-07-11T14:33:34ZWhat Africa’s drought responses teach us about climate change hotspots<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130022/original/image-20160711-9271-io67zj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People in Namibia are seeking ways to reduce vulnerability to problems like drought.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The world may still argue about whether or not climate change is for real. But in vast expanses of arid southern Africa, the daily struggle to cope with a changed climate is well under way. The lessons being learnt here on a small scale could prove vital in the fight for human survival.</p>
<p>The impact of drought has been felt acutely this season over southern Africa, as <a href="http://reliefweb.int/report/world/el-ni-o-undermining-resilience-implications-el-ni-o-southern-africa-food-and-nutrition">El Nino hit hard</a>. Perhaps this is what we might expect under future climate change conditions and so we had better learn how to prepare for it: more frequent years that record less rainfall than usual, along with the associated crippling impact on livelihoods and the economy. </p>
<p>This is particularly the case in semi-arid regions of Africa and Asia. These <a href="http://www.assar.uct.ac.za/node/471699">climate change hotspots</a> are highly dynamic systems that already experience harsh climates, adverse environmental change and a relative lack of natural resources. People here are often further marginalised by high levels of poverty, inequality and rapidly changing socio-economic, governance and development contexts.</p>
<p>This requires an effective response. In northern Namibia and eastern Botswana, research is already under way into what’s currently working and not working in relation to managing climate impacts. A major <a href="http://www.assar.uct.ac.za/southern-africa-0">regional project</a> is seeking ways to reduce vulnerability and develop longer term climate adaptation responses.</p>
<h2>Minimising vulnerability</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.assar.uct.ac.za/">Adaptation at Scale in Semi-Arid Regions</a> (ASSAR) project aims to redress the lack of information about the best ways to minimise vulnerability and develop adaptation responses. In addition it aims to produce future-focused and societally-relevant knowledge of pathways to wellbeing.</p>
<p>One of the initial steps has been to undertake vulnerability and risk assessment workshops. The case study sites are in northern Namibia’s Omusati region and eastern Botswana’s Bobonong district. These workshops differ from many vulnerability assessments that often focus either on the village scale or on a resource-based sector. </p>
<p>The workshops bring together people from all walks of life. These include village leaders, nongovernmental organisations and government officials among others. This group is called the Knowledge Group. Issues and hazards of most concern are identified through prior interviews and then refined by this group. During a two-day workshop the Knowledge Group unpacks how the most important issues impact different livelihood groups in the area and the best responses.</p>
<p>During workshops in Botswana in November 2015 and in Namibia in March 2016, drought was found to be one of the three most important issues facing both regions. One of the exercises was to develop an impact chain to assess possible positive and the negative future impact of drought. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130045/original/image-20160711-9285-dchzoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130045/original/image-20160711-9285-dchzoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130045/original/image-20160711-9285-dchzoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130045/original/image-20160711-9285-dchzoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130045/original/image-20160711-9285-dchzoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130045/original/image-20160711-9285-dchzoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130045/original/image-20160711-9285-dchzoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130045/original/image-20160711-9285-dchzoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Impact chain from Botswana workshop - the red text shows potential interventions that were identified.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gina Ziervogel</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Groups mapped how drought affects the biophysical system – farming, water and natural resources, for example – and then how this will further impact on families’ lives, economic activities and broader political and institutional environments. </p>
<h2>How drought affects Namibia</h2>
<p>In Namibia, the indirect impact of drought on livelihoods that were identified included:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Reduced crop yields from crop failure leading to loss of income and inadequate food supply in households. This has an impact on health.</p></li>
<li><p>Reductions in water available to wildlife leading to loss of wildlife. This affects the number of tourists and earnings from tourism.</p></li>
<li><p>Reduced fodder production, heat stress and outbreak of diseases affecting livestock health and mortality rates. This reduced milk and meat production leads to loss of income.</p></li>
<li><p>Livestock mortality had an impact on cultural practices. The death of livestock often leads to loss of status, prestige and participation in social networks. Livestock deaths limit the ability of people to participate in social and cultural events like wedding ceremonies.</p></li>
<li><p>All of the above lead to lower household incomes which increases hunger. Malnutrition of school children leads to poor health and an increased number of school dropouts. Limited household food availability can also increase participation in risky behaviour such as theft and transactional sex in exchange for food or cash. This then leads to an overall increase in household social conflicts.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Impact of drought in Botswana</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130024/original/image-20160711-9289-ws85lt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130024/original/image-20160711-9289-ws85lt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130024/original/image-20160711-9289-ws85lt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130024/original/image-20160711-9289-ws85lt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130024/original/image-20160711-9289-ws85lt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130024/original/image-20160711-9289-ws85lt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130024/original/image-20160711-9289-ws85lt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130024/original/image-20160711-9289-ws85lt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Livestock farmers in Botswana are highly vulnerable to drought.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Botswana, there were some similarities and some additional points that were raised related to the impact of drought:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Rainfall patterns had not been consistent in the past 15 years and the frequency and impact of drought had increased.</p></li>
<li><p>Arable farmers, livestock keepers and phane (mophane worm) harvesters are most vulnerable to drought because a lack of water increases the likelihood that their crops will fail, animals will die and mophane worms will be in short supply.</p></li>
<li><p>Livestock farmers in the area are highly vulnerable to drought because they are not able to migrate with their animals in search of water. Those who have migrated have experienced livestock theft when they move closer to the border.</p></li>
<li><p>Traders were thought to be moderately affected by drought because some items are more scarce in a drought but also because households have less income to spend.</p></li>
<li><p>Youth are particularly sensitive to drought. In some cases, youth who take out loans for an agriculture business cannot pay them back during a drought resulting in further hardship. In some families, the assistance of youth is not needed in the fields or to harvest phane during drought and so they are unoccupied and get into trouble.</p></li>
<li><p>When there is a drought the elderly have to use their old age grant for food instead of other vital supplies and services. This is made worse by their limited physical fitness.</p></li>
<li><p>The associated lack of food and income can have far reaching social consequences. These include people adopting risky behaviours include drug and alcohol abuse, truancy, criminal activities, theft and corruption that lead to family breakdowns.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Solutions from local communities</h2>
<p>One of the strengths of the workshops is that they help the Knowledge Group to identify solutions they think could be strengthened or implemented at the local or district level. So in Namibia, there was a discussion about promoting food banks to address food insecurity at the community level. As part of this, each household is encouraged to contribute 20 litres of mahangu (millet) that is stored by the traditional authority and used in time of distress. </p>
<p>In Botswana, a number of strategies were mentioned like irrigation using underground water, leaving phane worms on the ground to allow them to reproduce for the next season and using water harvesting more. There was also support for moving away from dependency on government projects. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130028/original/image-20160711-9271-15ec8h8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130028/original/image-20160711-9271-15ec8h8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130028/original/image-20160711-9271-15ec8h8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130028/original/image-20160711-9271-15ec8h8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130028/original/image-20160711-9271-15ec8h8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130028/original/image-20160711-9271-15ec8h8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130028/original/image-20160711-9271-15ec8h8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130028/original/image-20160711-9271-15ec8h8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Food banks were suggested to address food insecurity issues.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gina Ziervogel</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Namibia, the regional actors talked about <a href="http://www.assar.uct.ac.za/news/governance-climate-risk-namibia-part-1of-2-managing-floods-and-droughts">the impact of drought on their activities</a>. Water in northern Namibia is transferred from Angola first through an open canal and then through a piped reticulation system. When there is a drought there is greater demand for water and people land up damaging the canal when getting water for their livestock. This reduces both the overall amount of water and reduces the water pressure. </p>
<p>The decrease in water pressure reduces the reliability of water supply for the villages at the end of the pipeline. During droughts people move even further afield with their livestock for grazing and so require water in these far off areas too. These additional challenges not only compromise the water supply system, but lead to increased maintenance and operational costs.</p>
<p>To help meet the water supply demands, the Omusati Directorate of Rural Water and Sanitation requests resources from the national level to drill more boreholes, particularly in remote areas. <a href="http://www.namwater.com.na/">NamWater</a> also has plans to improve the quality and extent of pipes in the area over the coming five years.</p>
<p>The Department of Planning, in the Regional Council, is central to managing drought, even though this might not be obvious at first. It helps with sanitation which is particularly important during disease outbreaks that commonly occur during drought. It also tankers water into villages when supply is low. </p>
<p>One of the department’s responsibilities is for constructing clinics, hospitals and schools. Illustrating how drought can impact on these services, the director explained that the construction of a school in the region had been put on hold for two months tin 2016 as there was not enough water for the building process. Examples like this show how education and other services can be impacted by drought directly.</p>
<p>It is clear that drought is already affecting many parts of the system in semi-arid regions. Unfortunately with climate change, drought is likely to become more frequent. It is critical to assess the viability of scaling up successful local solutions as well as identifying new solutions. Importantly, this needs to be done by including local stakeholders, as well as local government and NGOs and connecting them to international funding and organisations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61600/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gina Ziervogel is part of the ASSAR project that is run by the African Climate and Development Initiative, UCT and funded by UK Government’s Department for International Development (DfID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Margaret Angula works at the University of Namibia as a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Geography, History and Environmental Studies. She is also a Namibian lead researcher for the Adaptation at Scale in Semi-arid Regions (ASSAR) project.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Salma Hegga works for the African Climate and Development Initiative - ASSAR Project. ASSAR is one of four research programmes funded under the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA), with financial support from the UK Government’s Department for International Development (DfID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC). </span></em></p>Understanding how drought is impacting on livelihoods and local governments can help in the development of longer term climate adaptation responses.Gina Ziervogel, Associate Professor, Department of Environmental and Geographical Science and African Climate and Development Initiative Research Chair, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/600132016-05-30T15:02:00Z2016-05-30T15:02:00ZWhat Africa must do to make green industrialisation a reality<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/123964/original/image-20160525-25205-1fu02li.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Moroccan Environment Minister Hakima El Haite at the Noor solar plant, one of the biggest in the world.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Fadel Senna/AFP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="http://www.uneca.org/publications/economic-report-africa-2016">latest report</a> from the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa features an in-depth examination of green industrialisation opportunities across the continent. The challenge lies in transforming production methods and creating infrastructure to secure food, water and energy supplies.</p>
<p>Africa only plays a <a href="http://www.uneca.org/publications/economic-report-africa-2016">small part</a> in environmental degradation. But the continent is <a href="http://www.uneca.org/publications/economic-report-africa-2016">extremely vulnerable</a> to climate-related risks. The goal of green industrialisation is to keep Africa’s greenhouse gas emissions low and to mitigate the fallout from climatic change and famines.</p>
<p>The agricultural sector is one of the key players in green industrialisation. So, it’s crucial to <a href="http://www.un.org/fr/africa/osaa/peace/caadp.shtml">implement</a> the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme. This will aim to stimulate trade between African countries, boost agricultural products and services, and shore up livelihoods and production systems against climate change and its risks. </p>
<p>These ideas were echoed by AU Commission head Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma at <a href="http://www.madagate.org/editorial/madagate-video-et-affiche/4298-union-africaine-eradiquer-la-faim-dici-2015-par-une-agriculture-solide.html">the 23rd AU summit</a> when she said: “It is time for heads of state to make agriculture a chief national development priority, and open the way to sustainable development for their people. Prosperity is at hand; it is in our hands.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121751/original/image-20160509-20605-1qngyut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121751/original/image-20160509-20605-1qngyut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121751/original/image-20160509-20605-1qngyut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121751/original/image-20160509-20605-1qngyut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121751/original/image-20160509-20605-1qngyut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121751/original/image-20160509-20605-1qngyut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121751/original/image-20160509-20605-1qngyut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In the village of Wote, Kenyan farmers are developing plant species that are better adapted to climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/cgiarclimate/16029273864/in/photolist-qqsdEL-r48eCX-5VYNQW-4fvw1N-74PTmY-763mdp-4fvqvJ-bnLXnC-bCYVHG-5VYLyN-4frqPk-74x3UE-5VUvNR-5VUqwn-74tmJi-4fvqN9-5VYRJ1-74PPqm-74t72i-5VYPed-74xcbs-767hbq-77aGkA-5VUt3r-74xvTG-5VYJMG-bnYLhN-767kd1-5VYRY9-74KRt8-a6gmV5-74P8gw-5VUxwT-5VYTcs-74PMrN-77aH2A-5VUp5n-5VYSeq-bATiNp-5VYMQ9-767itY-bnLXH1-bnLY2N-77aFGC-74xePf-DwaaHo-5VYJ1G-74KEQg-74xfo5-5VYLS1">Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security/Flickr</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Four main strategies</h2>
<p>There are a few development strategies to make green industrialisation a reality in Africa. The four main ones are: changing price incentives, regulating environmental standards, greening public infrastructure, and promoting less resource-intensive economic growth – decoupling growth from environmental impact.</p>
<ul>
<li><p><strong>Changing price incentives</strong> will help a gradual withdrawal from fossil fuel subsidies. Economic growth rates for African countries are closely linked to the <a href="http://www.banquemondiale.org/fr/news/press-release/2016/04/11/africa-low-commodity-prices-continue-to-impede-growth">price of primary commodities</a>, and therefore to fossil fuels. There are already moves underway to remedy this situation. Namibia and Kenya have introduced <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/french/pubs/ft/dp/2013/afr1302f.pdf">fuel subsidy reforms</a>. The use of public transport is being promoted in Kenya.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Regulating environmental standards</strong> is a way to prevent and combat environmental damage from production activities. The African continent has an exceptional history of <a href="http://www.jeuneafrique.com/3997/economie/p-trole-trente-ans-d-incidents-environnementaux-en-afrique/">environmental incidents</a>. Shell’s 2008 pipeline leak in the Niger delta is the most notable. The 500 tons of toxic substances spread around Abidjan in the Ivory Coast in 2006 by the global corporation Trafigura, which poisoned local communities and killed 17 people, is another. There was also the spillage in August 2013 of millions of gallons of petrol by a subsidiary of China National Petroleum Corporation in Koudalwa, Chad. These countries have since established national environmental protection standards. But enforcing them is difficult, hindered by a lack of human and financial resources.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Greening public infrastructure</strong> means equipping African countries with environmentally friendly services. This allows them to skip ahead in the process of industrialisation. Examples of this process can be found in South Africa’s new <a href="http://www.gov.za/about-government/government-programmes/expanded-public-works-programme">public works programme</a> and in the city of Durban’s <a href="http://www.gov.za/about-government/government-programmes/expanded-public-works-programme">local climate protection programme</a>. Tanzania and Zimbabwe also hint at this strategy with their national cleaner production centres. Uganda’s leather industry, the Ghanaian wood value chain and the agro-industries of both Ivory Coast and Nigeria are all examples of such initiatives.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Decoupling growth from environmental impact</strong> will limit the use of environmental inputs in production. It will also decrease toxic emissions and discharge. Hydroelectric power stations like Inga III in the DRC, the Mphanda Nkuwa dam in Mozambique and Sambagalou in Senegal are a move in this direction. Malawi, Rwanda and Kenya are investing in biofuels, solar energy and geothermal energy, respectively. Angola, Botswana and Namibia jointly operate the cross-border Cubango-Okavango River Basin hydropower project. Mauritius is greening its maritime chain. In South Africa, efforts are centred on water management and sustainable mining. Lastly, it is worth mentioning Ethiopia’s eco-industrial park in Hawassa.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Green industrialisation could therefore provide the basis for an African renaissance. Shared projects like hydropower stations, roads and smart cities are the first tangible signs of this future federation.</p>
<p><em>Translated from the French by Alice Heathwood for <a href="http://www.fastforword.fr/">Fast for Word</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60013/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Abdou Hassan is a member of the Institute for Research and Teaching on Peace in Africa (Thinking Africa).</span></em></p>Climate change stands to hit Africa the hardest. That’s why green industrialisation is critical to help keep the continent’s greenhouse gas emissions low.Adam Abdou Hassan, Enseignant chercheur, Université de Rouen NormandieLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/562972016-03-22T04:28:02Z2016-03-22T04:28:02ZForecast of global trends suggest heavy headwinds for Africa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115710/original/image-20160320-4446-185poq3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Africa contributes the least of any continent to climate change – but it also has the least resources to manage it.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/national-intelligence-council-who-we-are">US National Intelligence Council</a> is preparing a new quadrennial edition of <a href="http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/national-intelligence-council-global-trends">Global Trends</a>, looking ahead 20 years.</p>
<p>The report informs the strategic thinking and planning of America’s next president-elect.</p>
<p>Global Trends is intended to inform US leaders. But it can be a useful reference for other countries too. This is especially so in Africa, where the financial and institutional capacity for long-term comprehensive research and analysis is lacking.</p>
<p>The public document can be critically assessed in terms of local interests. It is based on input from scholars, journalists, business, labour and civil society leaders in more than 35 countries, including China and Russia.</p>
<p>The 2012 mega-trends, and a subsequent shortlist <a href="http://www.c-span.org/video/?405999-1/discussion-national-intelligence-council-chair-gregory-treverton">recently offered</a> by the council’s chair Greg Treverton, are already evident across Africa. His <a href="http://www.c-span.org/video/?405999-1/discussion-national-intelligence-council-chair-gregory-treverton">preliminary views</a> about which mega-trends will feature in the 2016 edition suggest Africa faces some tough headwinds.</p>
<h2>Previous forecasts</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.cfr.org/global-future-trends/nic-global-trends-2030-alternative-worlds/p29631">previous edition</a> was prepared for Barack Obama after his re-election in 2012. It highlighted four “mega-trends”.</p>
<ul>
<li><p>The first was an increase in individual empowerment. This would come about due to a decline in poverty, a rise in the middle class and more widely available information and communication technologies.</p></li>
<li><p>Second was a further diffusion of power among and within countries as emerging markets expand and rich countries age and growth slows.</p></li>
<li><p>Third were demographic changes brought about by urbanisation, forced migration, youth bulges and longer life expectancies.</p></li>
<li><p>Finally, it discussed severe strains on existing resources, access to food, energy and water as populations grow and consumption increases.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The trends evident across Africa include rapid urbanisation, the world’s fastest-growing population – including a large unemployed youth bulge – and migration. All are straining already scarce resources of food, energy and water.</p>
<p>Less obvious, but also of concern to Africa, are the trends toward individual empowerment in the north and newly affluent countries. There is also the trend of further diffusion of power within and among countries. These exacerbate partisanship, protectionism and exclusive patriotism, especially in the most powerful and prosperous countries.</p>
<p>The detrimental effects on African countries are likely to be further exacerbated by opposition to two important problems: overdue reform of multilateral institutions, and greater collective action to overcome widening inequities. </p>
<h2>What’s next</h2>
<p>Treverton’s recent shortlist of immediate concerns includes several that were overlooked four years ago. They include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>China’s economic slowdown and restructuring;</p></li>
<li><p>Russian assertiveness under Vladimir Putin’s popular, authoritarian and unpredictable leadership;</p></li>
<li><p>the collapse of commodity prices. This will contribute to sudden, perhaps dangerous, reversals in growth in emerging markets, notably Brazil and South Africa;</p></li>
<li><p>deadly twists in the Middle East turmoil and the outpouring of refugees; and</p></li>
<li><p>political uncertainties in the US affecting its global role.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Treverton notes that the council could not address the issue of America’s global role. Nevertheless, it is an implicit reminder of the 2016 election’s global importance.</p>
<p>Treverton expects that, as in 2012, individual empowerment will lead the 2016 list. This will fuel demands for more accountability. It will also be accompanied by acts of violence and criminal behaviour.</p>
<p>The 2016 list is also expected to discuss slower growth, with more strains on scarce resources, coping with the effects of climate change, and rising inequality. It will also include mention of intensifying competition and conflict over values that lie at the heart of demands for greater freedom and equality.</p>
<p>There will also be mention of technological breakthroughs. This will be most notable in areas of artificial intelligence and biotechnology. Treverton compared these to information technology breakthroughs 25 years ago.</p>
<p>Finally, the list is expected to discuss the greater difficulties in achieving collective action among countries as a result of the other four trends.</p>
<p>“African solutions for African problems” remains a vital aspiration among elites eager to purge all remnants of colonialism. This includes practical, political and psychological. But Africa will continue to depend on economic growth in more prosperous regions to sustain commodity exports and fuel diversification and development. </p>
<p>Current trends and the likely revisions to in the 2016 list point to even less likelihood that the 2012 “most plausible positive outcome” in global scenario, Fusion, will predominate. This will further hurt Africa’s development prospects.</p>
<p>Climate change is fast becoming a human survival issue in Africa. It is the region least responsible for global warming. But it also has the fewest surplus resources to deal with its effects. </p>
<p>In addition, most people still depend on subsistence agriculture. A new <a href="http://www.nap.edu/catalog/21852/attribution-of-extreme-weather-events-in-the-context-of-climate-change">report</a> from the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine links extreme weather and resulting humanitarian disasters to climate change.</p>
<p>Another <a href="https://www.wits.ac.za/media/wits-university/news-and-events/images/all-news/Book-launch-at-the-Circa%20Gallery_896x1080px.jpg">study</a> shows that southern Africa will experience global warming twice as hot as the global mean. This is likely to lead to famine, forced migration, and risks of deadly new pandemics as humans and animals congest and viruses spread. None will remain local problems. </p>
<p>Whatever scenarios actually happen, acquiring a better understanding of global trends and their local effects must become a top priority for all universities. This must take the form of interdisciplinary and problem-focused research and analysis to inform contingency planning and priorities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56297/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John J Stremlau does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scenarios on global trends over the next 20 years point to some serious challenges for Africa. Whatever actually happens, it’s important for the continent to put in place mitigation strategies.John J Stremlau, Visiting Professor of International Relations, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/515882015-12-29T06:18:50Z2015-12-29T06:18:50ZWhy African countries need to make plans to cope with rising temperatures<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106626/original/image-20151218-27875-1p21th7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Health issues from extreme heat are a reality for many in Africa.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Southern Africa has been experiencing high temperatures in recent months. In October, Zimbabwe experienced a <a href="http://allafrica.com/stories/201510120083.html">heatwave</a> with temperatures in Kariba reaching 45°C. In late October, temperatures in Vredendal, South Africa reached a maximum of 48.4°C, breaking the record for the highest worldwide temperature for <a href="https://www.enca.com/south-africa/vredendal-sets-hottest-global-temperature-october">that month</a>. </p>
<p>Southern Africa is not alone. 2015 is the warmest year on <a href="https://www.wmo.int/media/content/wmo-2015-likely-be-warmest-record-2011-2015-warmest-five-year-period">record</a>.</p>
<p>The impact that high temperatures will have on the health of people living in southern Africa is not yet clear. This is particularly worrying since the increases are projected to continue because of climate change. And there are no alert and response systems or tools in place to ensure public health and safety during heatwaves.</p>
<p>According to a new <a href="http://ntww1.csir.co.za/plsql/ptl0002/PTL0002_PGE157_MEDIA_REL?MEDIA_RELEASE_NO=7526949">publication,</a> by the end of the century temperatures in sub-tropical Africa could <a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085004/meta">increase</a> by 4°- 6°C. In tropical Africa there could be rises of between 3°-5°C. Unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, these temperatures will become a reality. </p>
<p>These increases in temperature are likely to have a severe impact on health across Africa.</p>
<h2>Health risks</h2>
<p>High temperatures can directly impact health by upsetting the body’s thermoregulatory balance. Heat exhaustion can occur when body temperatures exceed 38°C and heat stroke when body temperatures reach over <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap11_FINAL.pdf">40°C</a>. But studies have also shown that there can be negative health effects and increases in mortality even at lower <a href="http://jech.bmj.com/content/64/9/753.full.pdf">outdoor temperatures</a>. </p>
<p>In general, the relationship between temperature and mortality varies by geographical area and climate, as well as by the characteristics of the population. When temperatures surpass the optimal range, the risk of mortality increases <a href="http://jech.bmj.com/content/64/9/753.full.pdf">rapidly</a>. And, in cases where high temperatures are experienced over multiple days in a row - as in a heatwave - human health can be negatively affected.</p>
<p>For example, in August 2003, Europe experienced the hottest summer in over 500 years. These heatwaves were estimated to have caused up to 45 000 heat-related <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter8.pdf">deaths</a>. In a recent heatwave in India, where temperatures hit around 40°C in some areas, 2,300 people were <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/india-heat-wave-kills-thousands">reported</a> to have died.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106627/original/image-20151218-27894-qkx379.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106627/original/image-20151218-27894-qkx379.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106627/original/image-20151218-27894-qkx379.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106627/original/image-20151218-27894-qkx379.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106627/original/image-20151218-27894-qkx379.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106627/original/image-20151218-27894-qkx379.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106627/original/image-20151218-27894-qkx379.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106627/original/image-20151218-27894-qkx379.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Men in India lie in mud to cool themselves after a heatwave claimed over 2000 lives in 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jitendra Prakash</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many studies on the effects of heat on health have been done in temperate and industrialised nations. But few have been performed in sub-tropical and tropical climatic regions, and developing countries. This is due to the lack of data, research funding and prioritisation of research to determine the heat-health relationship.</p>
<h2>What is already known about the risk</h2>
<p>Climate projections predict significant <a href="http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/12/10/12577/pdf">risk</a> to African <a href="http://ntww1.csir.co.za/plsql/ptl0002/PTL0002_PGE157_MEDIA_REL?MEDIA_RELEASE_NO=7526983">lives</a> from increasing temperatures.</p>
<p>The study used apparent temperature instead of normal temperature. Apparent temperature is an index that combines temperature, relative humidity and wind speed to describe how hot it feels. Because local data were not available, this study assumes the thresholds at which health would be affected. It assumed an apparent temperature threshold of 27°C. Using this threshold and Addis Ababa as an example, the study projected that apparent temperatures in Addis currently go over 27°C on only two days of the year on average. But by the end of the century temperatures in Addis would exceed this on up to 160 days a year.</p>
<p>This increase was seen across Africa. Areas like the Democratic Republic of Congo had much warmer turning points. This is because the country already experiences many extremely hot days. </p>
<p>This research has limitations because of the lack of local data. But the message remains clear. Without strong action to stop climate change, the potential for the health of people in Africa being affected negatively from rising temperatures will increase.</p>
<h2>Response systems would help</h2>
<p>There are some practical steps that can be taken. For example, the Heat Alert and Response <a href="http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/environment-and-health/Climate-change/activities/public-health-responses-to-weather-extremes2/heathealth-action-plans">System</a> combines meteorological forecasting of heat events and heatwaves together with a response plan.</p>
<p>When a heatwave is forecast a few days in advance, communities put out warnings and explain what measures are being put in place to protect public health. The plans are distributed at workplaces and community locations and include information sharing through public alerts via radio, SMSes and TV. Governments are sometimes involved too, providing freely available cooling centres and extra emergency response services focused on vulnerable and isolated people.</p>
<p>Meteorological forecasting systems need to be in place for this to work. For example, advance forecasts of up to 1-3 months give people time to mobilise resources and to put plans in place. </p>
<p>African governments and employers should look at developing a similar response system. </p>
<p>Continuous research and data are also needed to quantify the relationship between heat and health in Africa. It is likely that public health and the health of outdoor workers have already been affected but not yet quantified.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/51588/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca Garland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Africa must find ways of dealing with extreme heatwaves or suffer a range of health problems, including fatalities.Rebecca Garland, Senior Researcher in Climate Studies, Modeling and Environmental Health Research Group, Council for Scientific and Industrial ResearchLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.