tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/air-safety-36274/articlesAir safety – The Conversation2024-03-12T02:18:16Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2255542024-03-12T02:18:16Z2024-03-12T02:18:16ZLATAM flight 800 ‘just dropped’ in mid-flight, injuring dozens. An expert explores what happened, and how to keep yourself safe<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581149/original/file-20240312-18-cpokru.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=12%2C38%2C4224%2C2776&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/los-angelescalifornia-january-14-2017-latam-558269083">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Monday, LATAM Airlines flight 800 from Sydney to Auckland experienced what officials are describing as a “technical fault” that meant the <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/11/australia/new-zealand-latam-airlines-intl-hnk/index.html">Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner</a> “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/24-injured-after-technical-problem-latam-sydney-auckland-flight-nz-herald-2024-03-11/">just dropped</a>” without any warning. </p>
<p>The aircraft pitched downward very quickly, causing some passengers and crew members who were not wearing seatbelts to hit the ceiling, and leaving at least 50 people injured. The flight landed without further incident and the injured passengers and crew were transferred to local hospitals.</p>
<p>So what happened? And should air passengers be concerned?</p>
<p>The short answer is there’s no need to worry – if anything, it seems the plane’s safety systems worked as intended. The real takeaway from the story is you should always wear your seatbelt while seated, just like the cabin crew have been telling you.</p>
<h2>Keep perspective</h2>
<p>When we plan a trip, we usually have adventure or work on our minds as we wing our way to our destination. We think about what types of activities we’ll do, like hiking or water sports, and where we can find great meals. </p>
<p>Most of us never think about what is happening up front in the cockpit as we watch a movie or enjoy the in-flight meal. We generally don’t feel the need to worry about the flights as we feel confident we’ll get to our destination without a problem. Airline incidents are rare when you consider how much travelling is taking place around the globe.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/could-climate-change-have-played-a-role-in-the-airasia-crash-36002">Could climate change have played a role in the AirAsia crash?</a>
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<p>On peak travel days, there can be more than <a href="https://www.travelweek.ca/news/exactly-many-planes-world-today/">16,000 planes in the air</a> at any time. There are around 4 billion air travel passengers each year, and the number is <a href="https://www.airlineratings.com/news/airline-passengers-tipped-to-double-by-2035/">expected to double by 2035</a> by some estimates.</p>
<p>The vast majority of these flights pass without incident. However, when an emergency does occur it receives a lot of attention – a lot more attention than the far more frequent crashes or other accidents that happen on our roads, for example.</p>
<p>So when you do hear about an incident on a plane, the first thing to do is keep it in perspective.</p>
<h2>What happened on LATAM 800?</h2>
<p>Authorities have not released a lot of detail on the cause of the incident, beyond saying it was a “technical fault”. As LATAM Flight 800 originated in Australia, the transportation investigation teams from Australia, New Zealand, Boeing and LATAM will scrutinise the incident to better understand what happened. </p>
<p>Modern airliners have redundant systems for flight-critical controls. If one fails, it can be transferred to the backup automatically or manually by the flight crew. </p>
<p>One passenger stated that one of the <a href="https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/incidents/fifty-injured-after-pilot-lost-instrumentation-on-latam-flight-from-sydney-to-auckland/news-story/e713c49fd1332b06950d802d57cecb35">pilots said his instruments went blank</a>, he lost control briefly, and the backup system returned the aircraft back to normal operations. </p>
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<p>If the aircraft experienced a sudden loss of electrical power – from a generator failure, for example – it would cause the autopilot to fail as well. This could have caused the aircraft to abruptly change its flight configuration and descend rapidly. </p>
<p>Whatever happened in this case, it seems the redundant systems on the 787, <a href="https://simpleflying.com/united-787-9-generator-failure/">which includes six backup generators</a>, were able to rapidly return all systems to normal. </p>
<h2>Wear your seatbelt</h2>
<p>LATAM 800 is an example of why we should always wear seatbelts when we are seated on an airplane. While technical faults of this kind are rare, turbulence is a much more common occurrence that can lead to injuries for unsecured passengers.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/03/05/1161196591/turbulence-airplanes-injuries-death-safety">US Federal Aviation Administration</a> has reported that, in the United States, 30 passengers and 116 crew members were hospitalised due to in-flight injuries caused by turbulence between 2009 and 2021. </p>
<p>Crew members are most susceptible due to the nature of their job. The <a href="https://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/2014/in-flight-turbulence">Federal Aviation Administration states</a> the annual cost to the global aviation industry due to turbulence injuries is US$100 million.</p>
<h2>Climate change and turbulence</h2>
<p>With climate change heating up our atmosphere every year, we can expect more turbulence. Wind speeds at the altitudes where most aircraft fly are increasing, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisagarcia/2023/11/20/more-clear-air-turbulence-from-climate-change-raises-safety-concerns/?sh=18be6a894b39">causing more turbulence</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-air-turbulence-196872">What is air turbulence?</a>
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<p>This type of turbulence is known as “clear air turbulence” and is difficult to predict or see with current aircraft technologies. <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisagarcia/2023/11/20/more-clear-air-turbulence-from-climate-change-raises-safety-concerns/?sh=18be6a894b39">Researchers have</a> found that severe clear air turbulence over the North Atlantic increased by 55% from 1979 to 2020. </p>
<p>For airlines, more turbulence will mean more wear and tear on aircraft. But for travellers, the bottom line is clear: always follow the safety instructions from the cabin crew, and keep your seatbelt fastened at all times when seated.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225554/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Doug Drury does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s unclear exactly what happened to violently shake up LATAM flight 800, but the moral for passengers is clear: wear your seatbelt.Doug Drury, Professor/Head of Aviation, CQUniversity AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2207632024-01-30T13:34:46Z2024-01-30T13:34:46ZWhy AI can’t replace air traffic controllers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570714/original/file-20240122-29-jlh3sm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3498%2C2330&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Control towers at airports are only the most visible parts of the complex national air traffic control system.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-american-airlines-airbus-a319-airplane-takes-off-past-news-photo/1246152990">Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After hours of routine operations, an air traffic controller gets a radio call from a small aircraft whose cockpit indicators can’t confirm that the plane’s landing gear is extended for landing. The controller arranges for the pilot to fly low by the tower so the controller can visually check the plane’s landing gear. All appears well. “It looks like your gear is down,” the controller tells the pilot.</p>
<p>The controller calls for the airport fire trucks to be ready just in case, and the aircraft circles back to land safely. Scenarios like this play out regularly. In the air traffic control system, everything must meet the highest levels of safety, but not everything goes according to plan.</p>
<p>Contrast this with the still science-fiction vision of future artificial intelligence “pilots” flying autonomous aircraft, complete with an autonomous air traffic control system handling aircraft as easily as routers shuttling data packets on the internet. </p>
<p>I’m an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=Oqm-cy4AAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">aerospace engineer</a> who led a National Academies study ordered by Congress <a href="https://www.trb.org/Publications/Blurbs/170870.aspx">about air traffic controller staffing</a>. Researchers are continually working on new technologies that automate elements of the air traffic control system, but technology can execute only those functions that are planned for during its design and so can’t modify standard procedures. As the scenario above illustrates, humans are likely to remain a necessary central component of air traffic control for a long time to come.</p>
<h2>What air traffic controllers do</h2>
<p>The Federal Aviation Administration’s fundamental guidance for the <a href="https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/atpubs/atc_html/">responsibility of air traffic controllers</a> states: “The primary purpose of the air traffic control system is to prevent a collision involving aircraft.” Air traffic controllers are also charged with providing “a safe, orderly and expeditious flow of air traffic” and other services supporting safety, such as helping pilots avoid mountains and other hazardous terrain and hazardous weather, to the extent they can. </p>
<p>Air traffic controllers’ jobs vary. Tower controllers provide the local control that clears aircraft to take off and land, making sure that they are spaced safely apart. They also provide ground control, directing aircraft to taxi and notifying pilots of flight plans and potential safety concerns on that day before flight. Tower controllers are aided by some displays but mostly look outside from the towers and talk with pilots via radio. At larger airports staffed by FAA controllers, <a href="https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/technology/adsb/atc/assc">surface surveillance displays</a> show controllers the aircraft and other vehicles on the ground on the airfield.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">This FAA animation explains the three basic components of the U.S. air traffic control system.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Approach and en route controllers, on the other hand, sit in front of large displays in dark and quiet rooms. They communicate with pilots via radio. Their displays show aircraft locations on a map view with key features of the airspace boundaries and routes. </p>
<p>The 21 en route control centers in the U.S. manage traffic that is between and above airports and thus typically flying at higher speeds and altitudes. </p>
<p>Controllers at approach control facilities transition departing aircraft from local control after takeoff up and into en route airspace. They similarly take arriving aircraft from en route airspace, line them up with the landing approach and hand them off to tower controllers. </p>
<p>A controller at each display manages all the traffic within a sector. Sectors can vary in size from a few cubic miles, focused on sequencing aircraft landing at a busy airport, to en route sectors spanning more than 30,000 cubic miles (125,045 cubic km) where and when there are few aircraft flying. If a sector gets busy, a second and even third controller might assist, or the sector might be split into two, with another display and controller team managing the second. </p>
<h2>How technology can help</h2>
<p>Air traffic controllers have a stressful job and are subject to fatigue and information overload. Public concern about a growing number of close calls have put a spotlight on <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/15/us/politics/air-traffic-safety-faa.html">aging technology</a> and staffing shortages that have led to air traffic controllers <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/11/09/1211838624/air-traffic-controllers-shortage-close-calls-senate-safety-near-miss-senate">working mandatory overtime</a>. New technologies can help alleviate those issues.</p>
<p>The air traffic control system is incorporating new technologies in several ways. The FAA’s <a href="https://www.faa.gov/nextgen">NextGen air transportation system</a> initiative is providing controllers with more – and more accurate – information. </p>
<p>Controllers’ displays originally showed only radar tracking. They now can tap into all the data known about each flight within the <a href="https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/technology/eram">en route automation modernization system</a>. This system integrates radar, automatic position reports from aircraft via <a href="https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/technology/adsb">automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast</a>, weather reports, flight plans and flight histories. </p>
<p>Systems help alert controllers to potential conflicts between aircraft, or aircraft that are too close to high ground or structures, and provide suggestions to controllers to sequence aircraft into smooth traffic flows. In testimony to the U.S. Senate on Nov. 9, 2023, about airport safety, FAA Chief Operating Officer Timothy Arel said that the administration is <a href="https://www.transportation.gov/addressing-close-calls-improve-aviation-safety">developing or improving several air traffic control systems</a>.</p>
<p>Researchers are using machine learning to analyze and predict aspects of air traffic and air traffic control, including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/TVT.2020.2981959">air traffic flow between cities</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/1659103">air traffic controller behavior</a>.</p>
<h2>How technology can complicate matters</h2>
<p>New technology can also cause profound changes to air traffic control in the form of new types of aircraft. For example, current regulations mostly <a href="https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-14/chapter-I/subchapter-F/part-107">limit uncrewed aircraft</a> to fly lower than 400 feet (122 meters) above ground and away from airports. These are drones used by first responders, news organizations, surveyors, delivery services and hobbyists.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">NASA and the FAA are leading the development of a traffic control system for drones and other uncrewed aircraft.</span></figcaption>
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<p>However, some emerging uncrewed aircraft companies are proposing to fly in controlled airspace. Some plan to have their aircraft fly regular flight routes and interact normally with air traffic controllers via voice radio. These include <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231206413888/en/Reliable-Robotics-Flies-Large-Cargo-Aircraft-with-No-One-On-Board">Reliable Robotics</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/self-flying-cessna-completes-fully-automated-flight-xwing-2021-4">Xwing</a>, which are separately working to automate the Cessna Caravan, a small cargo airplane.</p>
<p>Others are targeting new business models, such as <a href="https://www.faa.gov/air-taxis">advanced air mobility</a>, the concept of small, highly automated electric aircraft – electric air taxis, for example. These would require dramatically different routes and procedures for handling air traffic.</p>
<h2>Expect the unexpected</h2>
<p>An air traffic controller’s routine can be disrupted by an aircraft that requires special handling. This could range from an emergency to priority handling of medical flights or Air Force One. Controllers are given the responsibility and the flexibility to adapt how they manage their airspace.</p>
<p>The requirements for the front line of air traffic control are a poor match for AI’s capabilities. People expect air traffic to continue to be the safest complex, high-technology system ever. It achieves this standard by adhering to procedures when practical, which is something AI can do, and by adapting and exercising good judgment whenever something unplanned occurs or a new operation is implemented – a <a href="https://theconversation.com/embrace-the-unexpected-to-teach-ai-how-to-handle-new-situations-change-the-rules-of-the-game-157560">notable weakness of today’s AI</a>.</p>
<p>Indeed, it is when conditions are the worst – when controllers figure out how to handle aircraft with severe problems, airport crises or widespread airspace closures due to security concerns or infrastructure failures – that controllers’ contributions to safety are the greatest. </p>
<p>Also, controllers don’t fly the aircraft. They communicate and interact with others to guide the aircraft, and so their responsibility is fundamentally to serve as part of a team – another <a href="https://www.sto.nato.int/publications/STO%20Meeting%20Proceedings/STO-MP-HFM-300/MP-HFM-300-20.pdf">notable weakness of AI</a>.</p>
<p>As an engineer and designer, I’m most excited about the potential for AI to analyze the big data records of past air traffic operations in pursuit of, for example, more efficient routes of flight. However, as a pilot, I’m glad to hear a controller’s calm voice on the radio helping me land quickly and safely should I have a problem.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220763/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Pritchett receives funding from the National Science Foundation through the Center for Advanced Aerial Mobility and Sensors (CAAMS) on the topic of in-flight autonomy capable of resolving faults and failures in on-board systems, and is finishing up a project sponsored by NASA examining human-autonomy teaming in advanced aerial mobility. </span></em></p>An air traffic safety expert explains why humans will remain central to managing the nation’s airports and airspace even as AI promises to improve air traffic control.Amy Pritchett, Professor of Aerospace Engineering, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2127422023-09-06T19:05:39Z2023-09-06T19:05:39ZAir traffic control chaos: how human error can lead a tiny glitch to spiral out of control<p>Several thousand passengers were stranded at airports, hotels and connection depots following the recent <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66644369">system-wide glitch of the UK air traffic control systems</a>. Some passengers were told of flight cancellations in advance, so they could make alternative travel plans. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, following some 2,000 flight cancellations over 48 hours, most passengers were either <a href="https://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/2023-08-29/a-nightmare-passengers-left-sleeping-on-airport-floor-as-flights-cancelled">sleeping on airport floors</a> or sitting on planes which were unable to take off. So what was the glitch and how did it create so much chaos?</p>
<p>The problems appear to have been caused by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/30/uk-air-traffic-control-failure-what-caused-it-and-who-will-have-to-pay">unusual data in a flight plan</a> submitted into the National Air Traffic Services (Nats) system by a French airline. This data couldn’t be processed because it wasn’t recognised by computers.</p>
<p>But it’s also worth considering whether there were organisational issues. It will be important to know how much senior staff knew about the systems they were in charge of and how proactive they were in addressing the problem.</p>
<p>From the managerial perspective, Nats can be divided into four different units. These are: local, regional, central and top (where the higher level of decision-making occurs). </p>
<p>In principle, controllers should be able to rectify the data error. In practice, a common approach is to mark and hold it temporarily – something called “error parking”. This can mitigate the problem as long as everything else continues to work properly. But this can also cause the error to “grow”, affecting other parts of the system.</p>
<p>This week, Nats released its a <a href="https://publicapps.caa.co.uk/docs/33/NERL%20Major%20Incident%20Investigation%20Preliminary%20Report.pdf">preliminary report</a> into the incident. Its chief executive Martin Rolfe said the error was “a one in 15 million” event. In a response, transport secretary Mark Harper said he wanted to “echo NATS’s apology to those who were caught up”.</p>
<p>However, the incident will also be subject to <a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-air-traffic-system-overhauled-ministers-inquiry-flights-chaos-2580435">investigation by the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA)</a>. There are some obvious questions to ask. </p>
<p>These focus on the roles played by managers in the identification of glitches and their repair, the quality of training offered to unit controllers, guidelines for standardised operating procedures – documenting day-to-day processes to make them repeatable – and support for resolving glitches.</p>
<p>In December 2013, an air traffic control system failure led authorities to recommend changes to Nats’ “crisis management capabilities” and for it to consider the different ways crises can be handled. A year later, another incident occurred, caused by a fault in software written in the Ada programming language that was developed in the 1980s. </p>
<p>The resulting <a href="https://www.caa.co.uk/media/r42hircd/nats-system-failure-12-12-14-independent-enquiry-final-report-2-0-1.pdf">enquiry report</a> said that “it is evident that neither of these recommendations had been addressed fully”. It made further recommendations to strengthen systems and contingency steps to help ensure they were “sensitive to their impact on the wider aviation system”.</p>
<p>For the most recent incident, the picture remains unclear. But, in my experience as a researcher of management, managers further up the chain can often pay more attention to immediate threats. They may therefore underestimate the impact of accumulated errors, or may not have enough time to monitor them.</p>
<h2>Bigger picture</h2>
<p>There has been stinging criticism of the chaos from figures within the industry, including the director general of the International Air Transport Association, <a href="https://www.cityam.com/former-british-airways-boss-criticises-staggering-air-traffic-control-failure/#:%7E:text=Former%20British%20Airways%20boss%20criticises%20'staggering'%20air%20traffic%20control%20failure,-Guy%20Taylor&text=It%20is%20%E2%80%9Cstaggering%E2%80%9D%20that%20the,from%20Britain's%20air%20traffic%20operator.">Willie Walsh</a>, Ryanair boss <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/ryanair-michael-o-leary-air-traffic-control-b2401251.html">Michael O'Leary</a> and <a href="https://www.cityam.com/easyjet-boss-questions-whether-nats-is-fit-for-purpose-after-air-traffic-control-failure/">Johan Lundgren</a>, chief executive of Easyjet.</p>
<p>“This system should be designed to reject data that’s incorrect, not to collapse,” Walsh explained. Lundgren said a review of the situation should determine whether NATs is “really fit for purpose, not only on the systems but on the technology, on the staffing levels”. O'Leary said the preliminary report into the chaos was <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66723586">“full of excuses”</a>.</p>
<p>With that in mind, it’s reasonable to ask questions of managers in charge of the systems and procedures, including whether everything possible was done to avoid the disruption seen during the bank holiday.</p>
<p>Another point to bear in mind: many senior managers – particularly at chief executive and managing director level – are not necessarily technicians. This means that they may not be fully aware of glitches or their potential impacts if the problems have not previously been reported.</p>
<p>Sometimes, front-line workers may have <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1467-6486.00387">reasons not to report problems</a>. For example, they might not be significant enough. Or, employees might feel that raising their heads above the parapet could limit their career opportunities. Unfortunately, as long as the glitch is not salient and the machine still works, people usually ignore it.</p>
<p>What’s currently unclear is the precise role management culture, decision making or an inability by senior staff to understand parts of the system might have played in this – if at all. That will be for the CAA investigation to disentangle. </p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>Problems affecting air traffic control have the potential to spark a crisis of consumer confidence which must be addressed as a matter of urgency. There are a couple of things that should already be happening. </p>
<p>Nats has now apologised to the affected passengers. But managers and authorities should also offer replacement flights, coupons or other objects of comparable value as compensation. A phone line or website should be set up to ease the situation.</p>
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<p>Managers have been <a href="https://www.nats.aero/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/NATS-Limited-2022.pdf">improving communication</a> between technicians and non-technicians and should be praised for this change in attitudes. The more two sides talk to each other, the lower the chances of something like this happening again.</p>
<p>However, the damage to the aviation industry from this episode has been severe. The risk for the industry is that passengers affected by the problems may look to alternative forms of transport in the future. In addition, aviation insurers may significantly raise the insurance premium, ultimately affecting the cost of flying for consumers.</p>
<p>The CAA has a very serious job to do.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212742/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kirk Chang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The chaos caused over the August bank holiday may well have been preventable.Kirk Chang, Professor of Management and Technology, University of East LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1224332019-08-28T11:48:22Z2019-08-28T11:48:22ZWhy would anyone want to sit on a plane for over 18 hours? An economist takes the world’s longest flight<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289512/original/file-20190826-8889-j6yaz5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A customer waits for the world's longest flight from Singapore to Newark.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Singapore-Flight-New-York/bafca6aa739745bbbf2197235dc678b7/1/0">AP Photo/Wong Maye-E</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Recently <a href="https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media-releases/qantas-to-operate-project-sunrise-research-flights-direct-new-york-london-to-australia/">Qantas announced</a> plans to conduct test flights from New York and London to Sydney and two other Australian cities. </p>
<p>If commercialized, these routes would become the longest in the world at about 19 hours. Qantas said it will conduct test flights <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/qantas-wires-up-people-for-19-hour-endurance-flight-11566471393">with only employees</a> on board to ensure the flights are safe and comfortable enough for paying customers. </p>
<p>I heard this news after finishing a round-trip on what is currently the world’s <a href="https://www.travelandleisure.com/airlines-airports/longest-flights-in-the-world">longest flight</a>, the 18 hours and 45 minutes Singapore Airlines schedules to get from <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ericrosen/2018/10/11/worlds-new-longest-flight-from-singapore-to-newark-launches-today/#6a42a6a12aca">Newark, New Jersey, to Singapore</a>, a route that began last October. The return trip is slightly quicker. Fortunately for me, there were favorable winds so each way took about 30 minutes less than scheduled.</p>
<p>Being aloft twice for the better part of a day gave me plenty of time to ponder the origins and <a href="http://businessmacroeconomics.com/">economics</a> of long-distance flights – with plenty of time to spare for binge watching.</p>
<h2>Talk about a long flight</h2>
<p>Pilots and airlines have been pushing the boundaries of flight times since the earliest days of air travel. In fact, 19 hours is rather quick for the industry’s trailblazers.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.wired.com/2009/06/dayintech-0609/">first plane to make it across the Pacific</a> took off from Oakland, California, in 1928. It took the aircraft, dubbed the “Southern Cross,” <a href="https://www.thisdayinaviation.com/tag/southern-cross/">three long flights</a> to get to its final destination in Australia: 27 and a half hours to Hawaii, 34 and a half hours to Fiji and a final 21 and a half hours to Brisbane. In all, the pilot and his crew covered about 7,000 miles in 10 days – all without losing any luggage.</p>
<p>A few years later, in 1931, two daredevils in search of a US$25,000 prize <a href="https://www.wired.com/2010/10/1005first-nonstop-transpacific-flight">flew from Tokyo to the state of Washington</a> in the first nonstop flight over the Pacific Ocean. To save weight and fuel, the pilots even threw out their landing gear after takeoff. When they reached the U.S., they crash landed – but survived to claim the prize. The flight took 41 hours and covered more than 5,500 miles.</p>
<p>These super-long flights, of course, were taken by daredevil pilots with no passengers. And they were very dangerous. One of the most famous aviation failures involved <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/07/19/amelia-earhart-found-disappearance-theories/1475518001/">Amelia Earhart</a>, who disappeared in 1937 while attempting to cross part of the Pacific on a world circling flight.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289516/original/file-20190826-8856-1rxgxj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289516/original/file-20190826-8856-1rxgxj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289516/original/file-20190826-8856-1rxgxj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289516/original/file-20190826-8856-1rxgxj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289516/original/file-20190826-8856-1rxgxj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289516/original/file-20190826-8856-1rxgxj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289516/original/file-20190826-8856-1rxgxj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The first trans-Pacific flight included three layovers, with legs as long as 34.5 hours.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Kingsford_Smith#/media/File:StateLibQld_1_139254_Landing_the_aircraft,_Southern_Cross_in_Brisbane,_Queensland,_ca._1928.jpg">John Oxley Library</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Six days and 60 hours</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.clipperflyingboats.com/transpacific-airline-service">first service</a> to ferry paying customers across the Pacific was created by Pan Am in October 1936. </p>
<p>The trip started from San Francisco and ended in Manila, capital of the Philippines. It took six days and about 60 hours of flying time. The plane flew during the day and made stops in Hawaii, Midway, Wake and Guam at night. The longest leg, from San Francisco to Hawaii, <a href="https://airandspace.si.edu/exhibitions/hawaii-by-air/online/pan-am-clippers/pan-am-spans-the-pacific.cfm">took 18 and a half hours</a>. </p>
<p>Pam Am’s planes, called the “Clippers,” <a href="https://www.clipperflyingboats.com/">didn’t need airports</a>. They were specially designed to <a href="https://airandspace.si.edu/exhibitions/hawaii-by-air/online/pan-am-clippers/pan-am-spans-the-pacific.cfm">take off and land in the water</a>. The planes <a href="https://airandspace.si.edu/exhibitions/hawaii-by-air/online/pan-am-clippers/what-was-it-like-to-fly.cfm">were also quite luxurious</a> and even had separate areas for eating and sleeping.</p>
<p>But all that luxury while spanning the globe was quite expensive. </p>
<p>The one-way fare from San Francisco to Manila <a href="https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/China-Clipper-s-flight-made-history-75-years-ago-3165474.php">was $950</a>, or $17,400 in <a href="https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm">today’s dollars</a>.</p>
<p>Fortunately, the cost of flying these long routes – in terms of both money and time – has come down dramatically. These days you can fly direct from San Francisco to Manila in business class for around $3,000, including the return flight. The trip to Manila takes just 14 hours.</p>
<p>Today’s flights are also a lot safer. The concern for many passengers is not crashing but instead <a href="https://www.popsci.com/are-long-airplane-flights-bad-for-your-health/">health risks like deep vein thrombosis</a>, a type of blood clot. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289517/original/file-20190826-8880-1gukbch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289517/original/file-20190826-8880-1gukbch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289517/original/file-20190826-8880-1gukbch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289517/original/file-20190826-8880-1gukbch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289517/original/file-20190826-8880-1gukbch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=611&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289517/original/file-20190826-8880-1gukbch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=611&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289517/original/file-20190826-8880-1gukbch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=611&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Amelia Earhart disappeared while attempting to circumnavigate the globe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Watchf-AP-A-APHS245875-Amelia-Earhart/e473225ce73d48db80cefd8f7c091c00/6/1">AP Photo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Saving time, money and bags</h2>
<p>Still, even if things have improved, I think most of us agree that <a href="https://www.cleveland.com/pdworld/2008/02/flying_isnt_fun_anymore.html">flying is not fun</a>. Airlines <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielreed/2018/04/26/airline-customer-satisfaction-scores-fell-in-2018-even-as-more-people-flew-on-them-than-ever-before/#3e9ae4ca2ddc">regularly rank near the bottom</a> among industries in customer satisfaction surveys. </p>
<p>So why would we want to increase the amount of time spent 30,000 feet above the ground in a metal tube with wings? </p>
<p>For one thing, it means less total travel time. For example, my flight to Singapore would have taken three and a half hours longer with a layover in Hong Kong. </p>
<p>But if you’re someone who might prefer a break during a long flight halfway around the world, a more practical benefit is that removing the connection also reduces the chance <a href="https://pp.bme.hu/tr/article/view/1870">your luggage is lost</a>, since bags are handled fewer times. Almost half of all bags delayed in 2017 <a href="https://www.sita.aero/resources/type/surveys-reports/baggage-report-2018">were a result</a> of baggage handlers missing connections.</p>
<p>Flying a full plane load of passengers directly also saves airlines money – which often translates into lower prices for consumers too. An extra layover at a major airport <a href="https://www.fraport.com/en/misc/binaer/business-and-partner/airlines-cargo/airport-charges/infographic--airport-charges-at-frankfurt-airport/_jcr_content.file/fraport_entgelte_eng.pdf">can be expensive</a>, with fees for landing, takeoff, parking, noise abatement and security. Airports also charge extra for <a href="https://www.fraport.com/en/misc/binaer/business-and-partner/airlines-cargo/airport-charges/list-of-service-charges/_jcr_content.file/list-of-service-charges---july-2019.pdf">optional services</a> like cleaning, towing and providing electricity to a plane while it is parked at the gate. </p>
<h2>Expect more ultra-long flights</h2>
<p>One thing that was interesting about the Qantas announcement is all the research it plans to do during its test flights – scheduled for October through December – on the passengers themselves. </p>
<p>Scientists and medical experts will monitor sleep patterns, food and beverage consumption, lighting, physical movement and in-flight entertainment to assess their impact on health and well-being – and prevent any blood clots in the legs.</p>
<p>Using this data, Qantas hopes to make ultra-long flying a more pleasant experience. After all, the main reason to take a single 19-hour flight is to arrive faster and feeling better than taking multiple flights to the same destination.</p>
<p>Whether you love or hate flying, expect longer flights in the future as more efficient planes allow airlines to go ever farther. Given we seem to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/despite-hectic-multitasking-lives-were-wired-to-binge-on-tv-24158">wired for binge watching</a>, I don’t think this trend is so bad. </p>
<p>I could have actually used a longer flight. My effort to binge the second season of “Star Trek: Discovery” was abruptly interrupted as we descended back into Newark, with just 10 minutes left in the final episode.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122433/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jay L. Zagorsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The day and a half it takes to get from New York to Singapore and back offers plenty of time to ponder the economics of ultra-long-haul flights – and wonder why we’d want to make it any longer.Jay L. Zagorsky, Senior Lecturer, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1150342019-04-16T10:47:35Z2019-04-16T10:47:35ZBoeing crashes and Uber collision show passenger safety relies on corporate promises, not regulators’ tests<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269076/original/file-20190412-76859-gv4t4i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=163%2C465%2C2322%2C955&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Automation can often get ahead of safety regulators' efforts.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/running-business-people-chasing-robot-humanoid-1101214268">Tarikdiz/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Advanced technologies deliver benefits every day. But, sometimes interactions with technology can go awry and lead to disaster. </p>
<p>On March 10, the pilots aboard Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 were <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/25/anti-stall-system-was-in-play-on-ethiopians-boeing-737-max">unable to correct a failure</a> in one of the Boeing 737 Max 8’s automated systems, resulting in a crash and the deaths of all passengers and crew. A year earlier, almost to the day, another automated vehicle – not an airplane but an Uber self-driving car – struck and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.html">killed Elaine Herzberg</a> in Tempe, Arizona. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://ifis.asu.edu/content/cscr-people">experts in how humans</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=VX2EqQgAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">technologies interact</a>, we know that it is <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/titles/6596.html">impossible to completely eliminate risk</a> in complex technological systems. These tragedies are the result of regulators and industry experts overlooking the complexities and risks of interactions between technologies and humans and increasingly relying on companies’ voluntary self-assessment, rather than objective, independent tests. Tragically, that appears to have happened <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/with-its-ties-in-washington-boeing-has-taken-over-more-and-more-of-the-faas-job/2019/03/24/6e5ef2c6-4be8-11e9-9663-00ac73f49662_story.html">with Boeing’s aircraft</a> and the Uber car.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/LVOwxV9dVmg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Inside the cockpit of a Boeing 737 Max 8.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Risky business</h2>
<p>The crash of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302, as well as that of <a href="https://theconversation.com/despite-consumer-worries-the-future-of-aviation-will-be-more-automated-113807">Lion Air Flight 610</a> in 2018, happened despite oversight from one of the most technologically capable regulators in the world. Air travel is <a href="https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/data/Pages/aviation_stats.aspx">remarkably safe</a> in light of the potential risks. </p>
<p>Before the 737 Max 8 took to the air, it had to pass a series of Federal Aviation Administration inspections. Over the course of that process, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/fast-tracked-aircraft-certification-pushed-by-boeing-comes-under-the-spotlight-11553428800">Boeing convinced the FAA</a> that the <a href="https://gizmodo.com/aviation-experts-have-been-warning-us-of-the-dangers-of-1833419813/">automated system was safer than it actually was</a>, and that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-airplane-simulator-exclusive/ethiopia-crash-captain-did-not-train-on-airlines-max-simulator-source-idUSKCN1R20WD">pilots would need very little training</a> on the new plane. </p>
<p>The FAA cleared the 737 Max 8 and its flight control system to fly – and retained that clearance not only after the Lion Air crash, but also for <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/13/business/canada-737-max.html">three days after</a> the Ethiopian Airlines tragedy.</p>
<h2>From airplanes to automobiles</h2>
<p>As airplane automation is increasing, the same is true for cars. Various companies are <a href="https://www.bloomberg.org/program/government-innovation/bloomberg-aspen-initiative-cities-autonomous-vehicles/">testing autonomous vehicles on roads all around the country</a> – and with far less oversight than the aviation industry. Local and <a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a23602511/self-driving-cars-requirements-loosened/">federal rules are limited</a>, often in the name of promoting innovation. Federal <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2662.html">safety guidelines</a> for autonomous vehicles require them to pass only the same performance tests as any other car, like minimum fuel economy standards, seat belt configurations and how well they’ll protect occupants in a rollover crash. </p>
<p>There’s no reliability testing of their sensors, much less their algorithms. Some states do require companies to <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/13/18223356/california-dmv-self-driving-car-disengagement-report-2018">report “disengagements”</a> – when the so-called “safety driver” resumes control over the automated system. But mostly the self-driving car companies are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/11/technology/arizona-tech-industry-favorite-self-driving-hub.html">allowed to do what they want</a>, so long as there is a person behind the wheel.</p>
<p>In the months before the March 2018 collision, <a href="https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/02/waymo-now-has-a-serious-driverless-car-rival-gms-cruise/">Uber was under pressure</a> to catch up with GM Cruise and Waymo. Uber’s cars had a sensitive object-recognition system, which at times would be deceived by a shadow on the road and brake to avoid an obstacle that wasn’t actually there. That resulted in a rough, stop-and-start ride. To smooth things out, Uber’s engineers <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-uber-crash/uber-disabled-emergency-braking-in-self-driving-car-u-s-agency-idUSKCN1IP26K">disabled the car’s emergency braking system</a>. The company appears to have assumed the single safety driver would always be able to stop the car in time if there was really a danger of hitting something.</p>
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<p>That’s not what happened as Elaine Herzberg crossed the road. The Uber self-driving car that hit and killed her <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/uber-self-driving-crash-arizona-ntsb-report/">did see her with its sensors and cameras</a>, but was unable to stop on its own. The safety driver appears to have been <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/22/17492320/safety-driver-self-driving-uber-crash-hulu-police-report">distracted by her phone</a> – in violation of Uber’s policies, though it’s unclear how the company briefed its safety drivers about the change to the automated system.</p>
<h2>Policing themselves</h2>
<p>Regulators are relying on safety self-assessment practices, whereby private companies vouch for their own products’ compliance with federal standards. The best assurances they – and members of the public – have for the safety and reliability of these vehicles are the guarantees of the companies who intend to sell them. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nhtsa.gov/automated-driving-systems/voluntary-safety-self-assessment">What reports companies do provide</a> can be slim on hard evidence, touting the number of <a href="https://www.govtech.com/fs/Self-Driving-Cars-See-Less-Human-Intervention-in-California.html">real and simulated miles driven</a>, without details of how the cars are performing under various conditions. And car companies are constantly releasing new models and <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/2/17413732/tesla-over-the-air-software-updates-brakes">upgrading their software</a>, forcing human drivers to learn about the new features. </p>
<p>This is all the more unnerving because there are far more cars on the roads than there are planes in the air – <a href="https://hedgescompany.com/automotive-market-research-statistics/auto-mailing-lists-and-marketing/">270 million cars registered</a> in the U.S. alone, compared with <a href="https://www.planestats.com/mro1_2018jan">25,000 commercial aircraft worldwide</a>. In addition, self-driving cars have to handle not just weather conditions but also close-range interactions with other cars, pedestrians, cyclists and e-scooters. Safety drivers don’t get nearly the amount of training that pilots do, either.</p>
<p>Arizona, where we’re based, is a popular place for public testing of autonomous vehicles, in part because of <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/03/20/595115055/arizona-governor-helped-make-state-wild-west-for-driverless-cars">looser oversight</a> than in other states. In the Phoenix area, however, there is growing public concern about safety. Some citizens are <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/money/business/tech/2018/12/11/waymo-self-driving-vehicles-face-harassment-road-rage-phoenix-area/2198220002/">harassing autonomous vehicles</a> in efforts to discourage them from driving through their neighborhoods. As one Arizona resident told The New York Times, the autonomous vehicle industry “said they need real-world examples, but I don’t want to be <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/31/us/waymo-self-driving-cars-arizona-attacks.html">their real-world mistake</a>.” </p>
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<h2>Connecting with the public, innovating responsibly</h2>
<p>In the absence of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles, states and local governments are left to protect the public – often without the expertise and resources to do so effectively. In our view, this doesn’t mean banning the technology, but rather insisting on corporate transparency and true regulatory oversight.</p>
<p>Engaging the public about what’s happening and who is – and isn’t – protecting their safety can help officials at all levels of government understand what their citizens expect, and push them to ensure that technological innovation is done responsibly. </p>
<p>Universities can play an <a href="https://meetingoftheminds.org/self-driving-ride-share-service-waymo-one-has-launched-whats-next-for-cities-29661">important role</a> in supporting responsible innovation on these issues. The Arizona State University Center for Smart Cities and Regions is working with the Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes to host <a href="http://themobilitydebate.net/find-a-debate/">public forums on self-driving cars in cities across the U.S. and Europe</a>. </p>
<p>Airplane and car passengers need to trust their vehicles and understand what risks are unavoidable – as well as what can be prevented. Relying on industry to self-regulate when lives and public trust are at stake is not a viable path to ensure that rapidly emerging innovations are developed and deployed responsibly. To the riders, customers and others sharing the road and the skies, there is only one bottom line – and it doesn’t have a dollar sign attached to it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115034/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Government regulators and industry experts often overlook the complexities and risks of human-technology interactions and increasingly rely on companies’ voluntary oversight and self-assessments.Adam Gabriele, Ph.D. Student in Sustainability, Arizona State UniversityThaddeus R. Miller, Assistant Professor, School for the Future of Innovation in Society and The Polytechnic School; Co-Director Center for Smart Cities and Regions, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1135802019-03-14T18:09:24Z2019-03-14T18:09:24ZBoeing 737 Max: air safety, market pressures and cockpit technology<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264097/original/file-20190315-28468-g56rpd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C29%2C1500%2C983&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Boeing 737 taxies at Manchester Airport in the United Kingdom.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pixabay.com/photos/boeing-737-airplane-aeroplane-3917327/">nickyhardinguk/Pixabay</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Boeing 737 Max – the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/03/11/702211493/boeing-737-max-involved-in-two-crashes-is-fastest-selling-plane-in-companys-hist">fastest-selling airliner ever</a> and the heart of Boeing’s business – has been grounded worldwide <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/23/business/boeing-737-max-faa-regulation.html">since March</a>. </p>
<p>A worldwide first, the grounding is the direct consequence of two Boeing 737 Max crashes in which a total of 346 passengers and crew members died. Both occurred shortly after take-off, and the similarities between the two catastrophes raised fundamental questions about the aircraft’s safety. It was grounded by <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/nations-grounding-boeing-737-max-8-aircraft-ethiopian-airlines-11334780">nation after nation</a>, with only Canada and the United States holding out. Finally, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/13/business/canada-737-max.html">they too halted flights</a> on March 13. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF02752736">boycott by travelers</a>, a cancellation of orders, and demands for compensation by airlines could have disastrous consequences for the Seattle-based manufacturer. It also raises questions about the ever-increasing sophistication of cockpit technology.</p>
<h2>Narrow-body jet with a long history</h2>
<p>The 737 is a narrow-body, twin-jet airliner with a long history. It entered service in 1968 and over the decades, Boeing has built and sold more than 10,000, making it the best-selling airliner in history. The 737 Max, first delivered in 2017, is the fourth generation and with 370 deliveries and 5,011 more on order, it represents 64% of Boeing’s production over the next 14 years. In 2011, the company made the world’s biggest ever single sale of commercial aircraft, when Indonesia’s Lion Air committed to buy 201 Boeing 737 Max and 29 Boeing 737-900 ER for a <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3073987">total of $22 billion</a>.</p>
<p>Boeing started development of what would be the 737 Max after American Airlines, a long-time customer, opted for Airbus in July 2011. To match the energy efficiency of the 737’s direct competitor, the A320neo, Boeing decided to improve the design and placement of the 737’s engines, increasing their size and positioning them higher and further forward. The new aerodynamics and lighter materials cut fuel consumption by 14%, but also required new stability control systems and other significant changes.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">“Max efficiency, max reliability, max passenger appeal: Boeing’s new 737 Max.”</span></figcaption>
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<p>The 737 Max is available in four configurations, the most popular of which are the Max 8 and 9, with <a href="https://www.boeing.com/commercial/737max/">210 and 220 passengers</a>, respectively. To speed getting the aircraft to market and into the air, Boeing’s strategy was to make the new versions similar enough to the previous ones that <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-boeings-decision-to-omit-details-on-safety-system-in-lion-air-crash-from-manual-1544025884">pilots didn’t need to be retrained</a>. While this made sense as a commercial strategy, some pilots complained that the new embedded systems made the 737 Max a completely different aircraft to fly.</p>
<h2>Separate crashes, similar circumstances</h2>
<p>The first fatal 737 Max crash took place on October 29, 2018. Lion Air flight JT610 left Jakarta for Pangkai Pinang under ideal conditions. The plane was brand new and the weather good. After 11 minutes, however, the pilots reported technical problems and attempted to turn back, but in vain. The plane could not gain altitude, nosedived, and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glroNHUZD28">plunged into the Java Sea less than 15 minutes after take-off</a>. All 189 passengers and crew died.</p>
<p>The second crash occurred on March 10, 2019. That day, Ethiopian Airlines flight ET302 took off from Addis Ababa, heading for Nairobi. The plane was delivered a year earlier and given a technical check just a month before. The pilot was highly experienced, having flown more than 8,000 hours. Six minutes after take-off, however, he reported technical difficulties and asked to turn back. The request was granted, but the plane disappeared from radar. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOIfgmp5Mic">The death toll was 157</a>, including 35 different nationalities. An entire UN delegation of 19 people perished.</p>
<h2>Suspicions of sensor and software malfunctions</h2>
<p>Given the similarity of the two crashes, aviation experts consider them unlikely to be a coincidence – there had to have been a genuine, serious cause, and one could call into question certain aspects of the 737 Max’s design. Indeed, a 2018 report by US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) indicates that incidence sensors, also called angle of attack (AOA) sensors, designed to avoid stall, are suspected of being defective on at least <a href="https://www.aviationtoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2018-23-51_emergency.pdf">246 737 Max around the globe</a>. The information provided by these sensors, whose purpose is to stabilize the plane, may mistakenly cause it to nosedive.</p>
<p>In fall 2018, US 737 Max pilots registered their concerns in a <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/13/us/pilot-complaints-boeing-737-max/index.html">NASA database</a> about an autopilot anomaly that could cause the plane to nosedive. There were also complaints that the plane’s instruction manual was <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/12/pilots-boeing-737-1266090">“inadequate and almost criminally insufficient”</a>.</p>
<p>In the case of the two 737 Max 8 crashes, the “maneuvering characteristics augmentation system” (MCAS) is suspected of having failed. The preliminary report on the Lion Air crash states that the pilot was unable to overcome an <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/4706134/lion-air-jet-crash-report/">automatic nose-down command triggered more than 20 times</a>. A similar malfunction happening the day before on the same plane, yet many pilots were unaware that it could occur even when the plane is flown manually. A <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/boeing-737-indonesia-1.4895211">note issued by Boeing</a> to airlines operating the 737 Max provides guidance in the event of failure of the new safety system – the correct behavior being simply to disable it. In response to continued concerns, Boeing responded <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-to-make-key-change-in-max-cockpit-software-11552413489">announcing a patch for the MCAS</a>.</p>
<p>On March 11, Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenberg <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/ethiopia-airplane-boeing-ceo/boeing-ceo-confident-in-737-max-safety-after-second-deadly-crash-idUSKBN1QS2PJ">defended the 737 Max</a> and attempted to defuse speculation about its integrity and inherent safety. The following day, the FAA issued a statement asserting that the Max 8 and 9 <a href="https://www.faa.gov/news/updates/?newsid=93206">were both airworthy</a>. Paradoxically, the FAA simultaneously demanded that Boeing make changes to the MCAS by April at the latest. US airlines such as Southwest, United and American initially decided to continue using their 60 Boeing 737 Max, stating their confidence in the plane.</p>
<p>With more than 370 examples in service as of February 2019, tens of thousands of passengers travelled on the 737 Max every day, and many were <a href="https://academic.oup.com/epirev/article/27/1/107/520811">increasingly concerned</a>. There were reports of travelers attempting to change or cancel trips when they found out they would be flying on one, sometimes refusing to board. Hashtags such as <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/groundboeing737?src=hash">#GroundBoeing737</a> began to spread on Twitter.</p>
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<p>On Monday, March 11, a number of countries announced that they would immediately ban 737 Max flights, including <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/11/chinese-airlines-ordered-to-halt-use-of-boeing-737-max-planes-caijing.html">Ethiopia, Indonesia, and China</a>. India did so the same day, a move that affected at least <a href="https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/boeing-737-max-aircraft-grounded-by-civil-aviation-watchdog-dgca-2006656">two carriers with a total of 18 planes</a>. The FAA and the US and Canadian governments continued to assert that there was no evidence of a link between the two fatal events, nor any danger of flying the 737 Max. That changed on Wednesday, March 13, when both countries finally <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/13/business/canada-737-max.html">grounded the aircraft</a>.</p>
<h2>Distrust and cancelled orders</h2>
<p>With the 737 Max now grounded, some operators have <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/13/investing/boeing-airline-compensation/index.html">demanded compensation</a>, while others with planes on order are considering cancelling. Lion Air, which committed to buy 201 Boeing 737s in 2011, has <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-12/lion-air-suspends-delivery-of-boeing-max-jets-after-africa-crash">suspended deliveries</a> and may switch to Airbus.</p>
<p>In addition to the cost in human life, the two 737 Max crashes have seriously damaged Boeing’s reputation and could threaten its future. The company cannot wait until investigations establish the cause of the accidents to start to take action, something made clear by the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/11/business/boeing-stock.html">12% fall in its share price</a>.</p>
<p>The accidents also highlight the increasing presence of technology in today’s aircraft. Sophisticated autopilots and even <a href="https://www.thalesgroup.com/en/worldwide/aerospace/magazine/ai-cockpit-why-pilot-your-plane-ground">artificial intelligence</a> play a greater and greater role in aircraft design and operation. Compared to the automation-heavy “fly-by-wire” systems used by Airbus, Boeing had long favored <a href="https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-news/2016/may/pilot/t_bva">traditional controls and extensive pilot training</a>. But this was before the 737 Max and the race for cost reductions and market share.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113580/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oihab Allal-Chérif ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>The 737 Max is the best-selling airliner ever. But two have crashed in five months, killing 346, damaging Boeing’s future and raising questions about the increasing sophistication of cockpit technology.Oihab Allal-Chérif, Full Professor, Information Systems, Purchasing and Supply Chain Management, Neoma Business SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1132722019-03-13T04:42:27Z2019-03-13T04:42:27ZFlights suspended and vital questions remain after second Boeing 737 MAX 8 crash within five months<p>Australia’s decision to <a href="https://www.casa.gov.au/media-release/boeing-737-max-operations-temporarily-suspended">suspend all Boeing 737 Max 8 flights in and out of the country</a> appears to be a prudent precaution.</p>
<p>It comes after two fatal accidents overseas involving the aircraft. On Sunday, 157 people died when Ethiopian Airlines <a href="https://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20190310-0">flight JT610</a> <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-airplane-boeing/boeings-737-max-back-in-spotlight-after-second-fatal-crash-idUSKBN1QR0SV">crashed minutes after takeoff</a>. In October last year 189 people died when Lion Air’s <a href="https://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20181029-0">flight ET302</a> <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-indonesia-crash/black-box-from-crashed-indonesian-jet-retrieved-from-debris-on-sea-floor-idUSKCN1N63FO">crashed off the coast of Indonesia</a>.</p>
<p>Australia’s Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) says no Australian airlines operate the Boeing 737 MAX – although Virgin Australia has several on order – but two foreign airlines fly these aircraft to Australia.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-internet-is-now-an-arena-for-conflict-and-were-all-caught-up-in-it-101736">The internet is now an arena for conflict, and we're all caught up in it</a>
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<p>Singapore-based <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/all-silkair-boeing-737-max-8-flights-suspended-as-of-tuesday-morning-sia">SilkAir has already suspended operation of its 737 MAX 8 aircraft</a>. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-12/fiji-airways-the-only-company-flying-boeing-737-max-8-in-aus/10891908">Fiji Airways</a> is the only other operator that will be affected by CASA’s temporary suspension.</p>
<p>Other countries – <a href="https://www.caa.govt.nz/public-and-media-info/caa-releases/boeing-737-max-suspension/">including New Zealand</a> – have also <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/11/africa/max-8-operations-roundup-intl/index.html">suspended flights of the 737 MAX 8</a>, so people no doubt want to know if it’s safe to fly on the aircraft.</p>
<p>There are several vital questions that need to be answered. </p>
<h2>Early days for investigators</h2>
<p>Although investigation of the Ethiopian Airlines crash is only just beginning, <a href="https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/flightradar24-data-regarding-the-crash-of-ethiopian-airlines-flight-302/">available radar data</a> seems to suggest similar flight profile characteristics with that of the <a href="https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/flightradar24-data-regarding-lion-air-flight-jt610/">Lion Air crash</a>.</p>
<p>After the Lion Air crash, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-indonesia-crash-boeing-explainer/explainer-unraveling-the-boeing-737-max-lion-air-crash-idUSKCN1NK2BE">questions were raised</a> about the aircraft’s Manoeuvring Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS), designed to prevent the aircraft from stalling.</p>
<p>If the data from the recovered flight recorders of both aircraft confirm issues with sensors in the MCAS (sending spurious signals to the flight management computers and resulting in the autopilot automatically pushing the nose of the aircraft down), then several questions will arise:</p>
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<li><p>why weren’t the pilots able to manually counter the actions of the autopilot, previously a safe design characteristic of aircraft autopilots in general?</p></li>
<li><p>why didn’t the pilots disconnect the autopilot as soon as the trouble began, something that can be done quickly with the push of a button?</p></li>
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<p>The same question applies in relation to disconnecting the auto throttle system. The Boeing 737 flight manual includes a procedure for pilots to counter any problems in the aircraft’s automatic trim system by disconnecting the autopilot and auto throttle systems.</p>
<p>If the problems continue they can switch off the automatic trim system and then fly and trim the aircraft manually for the remainder of the flight.</p>
<p>This was the crux of a Boeing circular to airlines after the Lion Air crash, which was made an <a href="http://rgl.faa.gov/Regulatory_and_Guidance_Library/rgad.nsf/0/83ec7f95f3e5bfbd8625833e0070a070/$FILE/2018-23-51_Emergency.pdf">Airworthiness Directive</a> by the US Federal Aviation Authority.</p>
<p>This required airlines to instruct pilots on applying the checklist if they have difficulty controlling an aircraft that’s being pushed into a nose-down position by the autopilot.</p>
<p>The question then arises: if this latest crash is proven to have been caused by the aircraft’s systems doing just that, did the pilots apply the checklist procedure? If not, why not? And if they did, why didn’t it work?</p>
<h2>Updates to software</h2>
<p>Until the flight recorders from the Ethiopian Airlines aircraft are read out, much of what is being discussed in relation to cause is conjecture.</p>
<p>Boeing says it will soon <a href="https://boeing.mediaroom.com/news-releases-statements?item=130402">issue a software upgrade for the 737 MAX 8</a>, presumably in response to its own investigation of the Lion Air crash.</p>
<p>If the second crash is shown to have been caused by the same issues, then sadly it comes too late for passengers and crew of the Ethiopian Airlines aircraft.</p>
<p>But there is always a lead time in relation to changes to anything that can affect the safety or operation of aircraft systems that are critical to assuring safe flight. Premature implementation of ill-considered changes can have the exact opposite outcome to that intended.</p>
<p>So I would expect Boeing to have done rigorous and extensive testing to ensure that the software upgrade fixes, rather than exacerbates, the problem and doesn’t introduce any new ones. </p>
<p>A lot of emphasis in the Ethiopian Airlines crash investigation will be centred on what can be learned from the flight data recorders. If the recorders are undamaged, investigators should gain an understanding of what transpired leading up to the crash very soon, in the next few days.</p>
<p>Then real and effective comparisons can then be made with what is known about the cause of the Lion Air disaster. Investigators ought to be able to answer the question of whether the similarities in apparent vertical speed and altitude fluctuations of the two flights had similar causes. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/lion-air-jt-610-flight-recorder-found-but-more-evidence-needed-before-concluding-why-the-plane-crashed-106246">flight recorders were recovered quite early</a> from the sunken wreckage last year, although the final report is yet to be finalised and released.</p>
<h2>A popular aircraft</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.boeing.com/history/products/737-classic.page">Boeing 737</a> has been a safe and stable workhorse of global airlines for more than 50 years. Much of the 737 MAX 8 aircraft and its systems are common to earlier variants.</p>
<p>The MCAS introduced in the new model was clearly intended by Boeing to be an enhancement to assure and improve safety. Usually we see step changes in safety improvement with the advent of new technologies in airliners – Ground Proximity Warning Systems (GPWS) and Traffic Collision Avoidance Systems (TCAS) being two clear examples.</p>
<p>But in this instance it is possible that some anomaly existed in the programming of the MCAS which may have led to these two crashes.</p>
<p>If so, it will be anomalies that went undetected through the rigorous and exhaustive flight and systems testing of the aircraft prior to being granted a certificate of airworthiness by the US Federal Aviation Administration, required before the type could have entered service with the airlines.</p>
<p>Boeing has <a href="https://boeing.mediaroom.com/news-releases-statements?item=130401">issued a statement</a> saying it is “deeply saddened” by the latest crash and will do what it can to help in the investigation.</p>
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<p>I am sure everyone is keen to see the results of both investigations, so that targeted action can be taken to assure the ongoing safety of flight. </p>
<p>Meantime, there is no evidence at all that the travelling public should have any concerns about the safety of other Boeing 737 aircraft types, the types that most of our Australian airlines currently operate.</p>
<p>They do not have the new MCAS and feature tried and true technologies that have been the linchpin of Australia’s enviable airline safety record for more than 40 years.</p>
<p>For the record, I flew home in a Boeing 737 from Melbourne last Monday, and I’ll be flying in one again very soon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113272/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geoffrey Dell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Suspending flights of the Boeing popular passenger aircraft that’s been involved in two deadly crashes is a prudent call given similarities in the two accidents.Geoffrey Dell, Associate Professor/Discipline Leader Accident Investigation and Forensics, CQUniversity AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1091872018-12-21T13:47:58Z2018-12-21T13:47:58ZGatwick drone drama shows how even unarmed UAVs can cause economic chaos and risk to life<p>One of the amazing things about the recent drone incident at London Gatwick is that the appearance of two unmanned aerial vehicles <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-46623754">flying into operational runway space</a> prompted the closure of Britain’s second-busiest airport for more than a day. With <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-46623754">further sightings of drones</a>, Gatwick only reopened to limited service after a 36-hour interruption, and those responsible for operating the drone remain at large.</p>
<p>With <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-46623754">more than 110,000 passengers on 760 flights</a> due to depart Gatwick on just one of the affected days, these drone incursions have left a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-46623754">trail of disruption</a> behind them.</p>
<p>This is by no means the first incident of drones causing problems at airports – there have been similar incidents in <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-man-drone-airport-criminal-charge-1.3413818">Canada</a>, <a href="https://www.arabianbusiness.com/content/375851-drone-costs-100000-minute-loss-to-uae-airports">Dubai</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33605869">Poland</a> and <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/2089974/drone-flights-disrupt-southwest-chinese-airport-third-time-recent">China</a>. But the event at Gatwick is unusual in both the length of its duration and the presence and repeated use of multiple drones.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.openbriefing.org/docs/Hostile-use-of-drones-report_open-briefing.pdf">growing availability and affordability</a> of consumer drones means that risks to airports, and other secure spaces will rise – and the <a href="http://dronecenter.bard.edu/publications/counter-drone-systems/">counter-measures</a> currently deployed against them leave room for improvement and need to be more widely adopted.</p>
<h2>Unclear motives</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.openbriefing.org/docs/Hostile-use-of-drones-report_open-briefing.pdf">study by the Remote Control Project</a> estimates that around 200,000 drones are being sold for civilian use around the world every month. Readily available from a range of <a href="https://www.argos.co.uk/browse/technology/drones/c:30277/">online and high-street outlets</a>, drones are becoming <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/20/airports-drone-gatwick-chaos-threat">more commonplace</a> and more affordable for the hobbyist.</p>
<p>As they move from a <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ywang/2016/05/12/chinas-flood-of-cheap-flying-cameras-is-little-threat-to-dajiang/#129dfb271869">niche product</a> to a more mainstream device, they have also caught the eye of growing number of hostile groups – and state militaries as well as terrorists and other non-state actors are increasingly deploying drones <a href="https://www.openbriefing.org/docs/Hostile-use-of-drones-report_open-briefing.pdf">on the battlefield</a>. </p>
<p>The Islamic State, for example, has used drones to <a href="https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2017/01/drones-isis/134542/">drop explosives</a>, to <a href="https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2017/05/24/types-islamic-state-drone-bombs-find/">observe and direct fire for others</a>, and to <a href="https://ctc.usma.edu/app/uploads/2018/07/Islamic-State-and-Drones-Release-Version.pdf">capture footage for propaganda</a>. Elsewhere drones have been used to cause disruption at home, such as the drone “<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-45073385">assassination attempt</a>” on the Venezuelan president, Nicolas Maduro, in August 2018.</p>
<p>The incident at Gatwick has not been labelled a “<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-46623754">terrorist event</a>”, but whether “<a href="https://about.bgov.com/blog/careless-drone-use-worries-lawmakers/">criminal, careless, or clueless</a>” it demonstrates that even consumer drones can cause risk to life and economic activity, despite being unarmed.</p>
<h2>Deliberate disruption</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-46623754">Sussex Police</a> have referred to the at-large drone pilot’s actions as “deliberate disruption”. At a recent <a href="https://counteringdrones.iqpc.co.uk/">Countering Drones</a> conference I spoke precisely about how both consumer and DIY drones may be flown and modified to do this. Delegates at the conference debated, lamented and reflected on the potential responses to such deliberate disruptions, considering their potential effects on <a href="https://gizmodo.com/watch-a-rogue-drone-crash-into-an-mlb-crowd-1795473669">crowds</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/15/us/white-house-drone-secret-service.html">sensitive infrastructure</a>, or at <a href="https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2013/09/german-chancellors-drone-attack-shows-the-threat-of-weaponized-uavs/">political events</a>. </p>
<p>The presence of an unknown drone can both <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2013/09/18/watch-the-pirate-party-fly-a-drone-in-front-of-germanys-chancellor/">unnerve</a> and cause <a href="https://ctc.usma.edu/app/uploads/2018/07/Islamic-State-and-Drones-Release-Version.pdf">panic</a> – and this could be further amplified, considering the potential for drones to be outfitted with <a href="https://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/man-illegally-straps-handgun-to-a-drone/">weapons</a>, or means to disperse <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/11556902/Drone-with-small-amounts-of-radioactive-material-lands-on-Japanese-PMs-helipad.html">hazardous materials</a>.</p>
<p>In seeking to future proof how we think about <a href="https://rhulgeopolitics.wordpress.com/2017/09/29/from-the-battlefield-to-the-homeland-the-changing-geographies-of-the-drone/">drones and their risks</a>, it is worth considering how drone technology and software is developing. There are now <a href="https://www.dji.com/intelligent-flight-modes">intelligent flight modes</a> that allow drones to track and follow designated individuals, <a href="https://ctc.usma.edu/app/uploads/2016/10/Drones-Report.pdf">basic swarming functionalities</a> that allow multiple drones to act in coordination, and the <a href="https://help.pscp.tv/customer/portal/articles/2421540-how-do-i-broadcast-from-my-dji-drone-">livestreaming of images to social media</a>, meaning that drones can potentially be used for live propaganda.</p>
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<h2>Countermeasures</h2>
<p>A question frequently asked is, for example at Gatwick, why don’t the police <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2018/dec/20/gatwick-airport-drone-travel-chaos-disruption-live-updates">shoot down the drone</a>? While armed police were <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2018/dec/20/gatwick-airport-drone-travel-chaos-disruption-live-updates">present</a> and joined by specialists from the armed forces, apprehending operators remains difficult because of their distance from their drone. It is dangerous to shoot down a drone due to the risks of falling objects and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2018/dec/20/gatwick-airport-drone-travel-chaos-disruption-live-updates?page=with:block-5c1bbdf2e4b02fb91ff06bf8">stray bullets</a>, but due to their small size drones are also difficult to detect before they are close enough to become a problem.</p>
<p>There has been however a boom in the development of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-eagles-scare-there-are-other-ways-to-stop-a-rogue-drone-54296">range of countermeasures</a> designed to stop drones. A <a href="http://dronecenter.bard.edu/publications/counter-drone-systems/">recent report</a> by Arthur Holland Michel of the <a href="http://dronecenter.bard.edu/">Center for the Study of the Drone</a> profiled more than 230 products produced by 155 manufacturers designed to counter drones. </p>
<p>Among them are those which seek to <a href="https://www.droneshield.com">detect and alert</a> users of approaching drones, to impede and stall drones through <a href="https://www.battelle.org/government-offerings/national-security/aerospace-systems/counter-UAS-technologies/dronedefender">GPS</a> and <a href="http://www.blighter.com/news/press-releases/138-auds-counter-drone-system-first-to-achieve-trl-9-status-following-successful-deployment-with-us-forces.html">radio jamming</a> or the embedding of electronic tagging and <a href="https://www.dji.com/newsroom/news/dji-enhances-geofencing-flexibility-for-enterprise-drone-users">geo-fencing</a> software, which prevent drones from being used near sensitive locations such as airports, prisons or power stations. There are also ways to to intercept and capture the drones using <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-35070818">net-equipped</a> drones and guns. Dutch national police have even trained <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-eagles-scare-there-are-other-ways-to-stop-a-rogue-drone-54296">eagles</a> to intercept drones.</p>
<p>But counter-measures are inherently limited due to their <a href="https://twitter.com/RikeFranke/status/1075751474859311105">implementation cost</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/RikeFranke/status/887924821853601792">cost-effectiveness</a> - as well as by legislation that governs the electromagnetic spectrum in which they function. Numerous reports have shown how preventative defences built into drones such as geo-fencing or altitude restrictions can be <a href="https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2015/08/chuck-schumer-no-fly-zone-drones/119389/?oref=DefenseOneTCO">tampered with</a>, <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/flight/drones/a19854/drone-flown-11000-feet/">overridden</a>, or even simply <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-36717538">switched off</a>.</p>
<p>So there remains a serious difficulty in enforcing drone use and apprehending those that act illegally, despite <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/oct/26/seven-jailed-over-plot-fly-drones-drugs-uk-prisons">recent convictions</a> of those using consumer drones to transport contraband into UK prisons. It’s not the <a href="https://metro.co.uk/2017/10/31/this-is-why-you-shouldnt-fly-a-drone-near-an-airport-7042121/?ito=cbshare">first time</a> Gatwick Airport has had to contend with an errant drone, but this occasion should be a wake-up call to the need for reliable and affordable counter-measures, and the need to think more creatively about the potential risks posed by (multiple) drones more widely.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109187/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Jackman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cheap, powerful, and more widely used by greater numbers of people, drones are causing a headache at supposedly secure locations worldwide.Anna Jackman, Lecturer in Political Geography, Royal Holloway University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1038342018-09-28T07:01:47Z2018-09-28T07:01:47ZLessons learned from the Essendon air crash: the importance of pilot checklists<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238405/original/file-20180928-48650-17pp74y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C885%2C7043%2C3721&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The importance of check lists.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/lillolillo</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the issues raised in the investigation of a Melbourne air crash that killed five people was the importance of pilots sticking to any pre-flight checklists.</p>
<p>Pilot Max Quartermain and four American tourists died when a Beechcraft B200 Super King Air VH-ZCR crashed into the DFO shopping centre shortly after takeoff from Essendon Airport on February 21, 2017.</p>
<p>The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) <a href="https://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/investigation_reports/2017/aair/ao-2017-024/">report into the crash</a> found the pilot did not detect that the aircraft’s rudder trim was not in the correct position before take-off. This rudder trim helps a pilot control an aircraft.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-black-box-an-australian-invention-that-nearly-didnt-happen-25435">The black box: an Australian invention that nearly didn't happen</a>
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<p>With the rudder trim incorrectly set, the report found, this adversely affected the aircraft’s take-off performance and ability to climb.</p>
<p>While not apportioning blame, the ATSB report said the rudder trim’s incorrect position was a contributing factor to the crash.</p>
<p>The ATSB’s chief commissioner Greg Hood said this accident <a href="https://www.atsb.gov.au/newsroom/news-items/2018/the-importance-of-following-a-cockpit-checklist/">emphasised</a> the importance of having a cockpit checklist applicable to an aircraft’s specific and current modification status.</p>
<p>The report said it was not known whether the pilot had used a checklist on the day of the crash, but Mr Hood added:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In this particular tragic accident there were opportunities in the checklist that existed for the pilot to ensure the rudder trim was set to neutral prior to take-off.</p>
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<h2>Checklists for pilots</h2>
<p>The use of checklists in single-pilot operations has been a contentious issue over the years. From the beginning of flight training, pilots are taught to memorise key checklists so they can readily recall and perform the required checks accurately. </p>
<p>In simpler cockpits, this process can provide reliable results. As the complexity of the aircraft systems and the cockpit controls increases, the inadequacy of solely relying on memory and recall becomes evident. </p>
<p>To minimise the likelihood of configuration errors in two-pilot airline operations, it is usual practice in each phase of flight for the cockpit to be initially configured by the pilots by recall.</p>
<p>The correct configuration is then checked by the two pilots by running through the applicable checklist. </p>
<p>The pilot not flying will usually call the item, both pilots will then check the appropriate switch or control setting. The pilot flying will verbally respond to the call to confirm the correct setting. </p>
<p>For a configuration error to occur in that environment, the setting has to be made incorrectly from recall, or omitted, in the first instance. Then both pilots have to miss the incorrect setting when the checklist call is made and responded to. </p>
<p>This method – sometimes referred to as a “challenge and response” method – provides two levels of procedural redundancy to guard against human errors that might otherwise lead to incorrect settings.</p>
<h2>Single pilot operations</h2>
<p>The challenge arises when considering how to achieve the same level of error-proofing in single-pilot operations. For example, a <a href="https://hsi.arc.nasa.gov/groups/HCSL/publications/Deutsch_SinglePilot_2005.pdf">2005 study</a> for the NASA Ames Research Centre said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… the failure to execute a checklist can cause readily detectable problems to remain undiscovered. Beyond simply being required, executing checklists is recognized by everyone as being essential to safe aircraft operation, and yet, checklist processing omissions and errors continue to be a factor in aircraft incidents and accidents. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>New Zealand’s Civil Aviation Authority, in its <a href="https://www.caa.govt.nz/Advisory_Circulars/AC091_11.pdf">advisory on single-pilot operations</a>, said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… the pilot is very reliant on the use of checklists to provide a suitable structure to replace the “Challenge and Response” checklists used in the multi-pilot cockpit.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Further, in discussion of single-pilot flying techniques, the US Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association <a href="https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-news/2017/august/pilot/turbine-single-pilot-flying-techniques">said</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… proper checklist use is a skill with some overlooked subtleties. First, though, the pilot must be committed to, and recognize the need for, disciplined checklist use. Industry working groups have recognized that single-pilot adherence to checklist usage is an area with some room for improvement. Especially in new light jets with highly automated systems, pilots can develop complacency regarding checklist usage that grows with time and familiarity.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>The drift into failure</h2>
<p>Many years ago I delivered a paper at a safety conference in which I argued that deviation from approved procedures and practices erodes the safety margins that were afforded by the system. The magnitude and criticality of the reduction in protection was unknown until the margins had eroded to zero and an accident occurred. </p>
<p>More recently, safety expert <a href="https://experts.griffith.edu.au/academic/s.dekker">Sidney Dekker</a> described this phenomenon in his 2011 book <a href="https://www.crcpress.com/Drift-into-Failure-From-Hunting-Broken-Components-to-Understanding-Complex/Dekker/p/book/9781409422211">Drift into Failure: From Hunting Broken Components to Understanding Complex Systems</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sharkspotter-combines-ai-and-drone-technology-to-spot-sharks-and-aid-swimmers-on-australian-beaches-92667">SharkSpotter combines AI and drone technology to spot sharks and aid swimmers on Australian beaches</a>
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<p>One of the biggest problems with single-pilot operations is the fact that it is very difficult to self-diagnose errors and omissions, and to recognise the associated drift into failure.</p>
<p>Just telling people about error, as tends to be the case sometimes in industry, does not immunise them from making errors or omissions of their own. </p>
<p>The systems and procedural environment in which a person functions needs to help provide those checks and balances. In short, rigorous use of checklists by pilots in single-pilot operations is really the only protection available to prevent critical errors.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103834/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geoffrey Dell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One of the biggest problems with single-pilot operations is that it’s very difficult to self-diagnose errors. That’s why checklists can help.Geoffrey Dell, Associate Professor/Discipline Leader Accident Investigation and Forensics, CQUniversity AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/971772018-05-25T04:40:44Z2018-05-25T04:40:44ZAirport-dwelling magpies get in less of a flap about planes, and that could be good or bad<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/220399/original/file-20180525-51091-hhbaa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Australian magpies are clever enough to tailor their risk-avoidance behaviours to different locations.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gail Hampshire/Wikimedia Commons</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Magpies that live at airports are less likely to flee from aircraft noise than those that live elsewhere, according to our <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/wr/WR18039">research</a>. But it is unclear whether this makes them more likely to be involved in a collision.</p>
<p>Magpies that are more blasé about aircraft noise are likely to come into closer proximity with passing planes. But conversely, they might also be less likely to attempt a risky escape flight that would actually increase the danger of a collision.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-happens-when-a-bird-strikes-a-plane-84502">What happens when a bird strikes a plane?</a>
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<p>Every day, throughout the world, flying animals (birds and, to a much lesser extent, bats) collide with aircraft. Many such collisions are minor and often go unnoticed. But they can be scary and damaging. In the worst cases, aircraft have lost power and crashed, causing catastrophic damage and loss of life. </p>
<p>Most bird-aircraft collisions <a href="https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=1496&context=icwdm_usdanwrc">occur at low altitudes</a>, where birds and planes share common airspace. At these altitudes, pilots have limited options for aircraft recovery. Moreover, the smaller the aircraft and the fewer the engines, the greater the chance of substantial damage should a strike occur.</p>
<p>Pilots are trained in how to avoid and handle bird strikes, as famously featured in the movie <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3263904/">Sully</a>, which portrayed US Airways pilot Chesley Sullenberger’s successful manoeuvre to ditch in New York’s Hudson River after striking migrating geese shortly after take-off.</p>
<h2>Magpie moves</h2>
<p>Aircraft engineers tackle this problem by designing engines that can more easily withstand bird strike. Airport managers try to make airports and their surrounding areas less attractive places for birds. Part of this includes “hazing” – harassing birds to scare them away from flight paths and runways.</p>
<p>Scientists, for our part, have been addressing the problem by monitoring birds’ behaviour at airports, the effectiveness of hazing, and the types of birds that are most commonly struck by aircraft. By identifying problematic species and situations, we can help airports and airlines manage the hazard as effectively as possible.</p>
<p>Our new research focused on the <a href="https://australianmuseum.net.au/image/australian-magpie-cracticus-tibicen">Australian magpie</a>. This species is ubiquitous, familiar, relatively large and frequently struck by aircraft. The Australian Transport Safety Authority <a href="https://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/2016/ar-2016-063/">reported</a> 513 magpie strikes betwen 2006 and 2015 (5.9% of a total of 8,717 strikes). This puts magpies in the top ten most struck bird species.</p>
<p>Birds, like most other animals, respond to potential danger in their environment. Throughout their evolution, such responses have been the difference between surviving or becoming prey. </p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.cambridge.org/gb/academic/subjects/life-sciences/animal-behaviour/escaping-predators-integrative-view-escape-decisions?format=HB#XBS23R6x86LTm7oZ.97">wealth of studies</a> have shown that birds show “escalating responses” to the presence of danger in their environment. First they become vigilant, including by listening. Then, if the perceived risk continues to grow, they fly away or find some other means of escape.</p>
<p>These behaviours are broadly the same regardless of whether the danger comes in the form of a predator, a human, a car or a plane. But an aircraft on takeoff is much faster than almost all prowling predators – in this case, danger is approaching at hundreds of kilometres per hour.</p>
<p>It is crucial to understand how and when aircraft trigger birds’ escape behaviours. In some cases, escape behaviour could even increase the risk of a collision, rather than reduce it. Many birds typically turn and fly in the same direction as the aircraft is moving, in a bid to fly “away” from the approaching danger. Many killed birds show <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229206560_Jet_aircraft_noise_and_bird_strikes_Why_more_birds_are_being_hit">injuries to their back and side</a> – head-on collisions are relatively rare.</p>
<p>Anyone who has befriended a magpie knows that they are intelligent animals that can alter their propensity for escape based on experience. Some even <a href="https://theconversation.com/magpies-can-form-friendships-with-people-heres-how-83950">actively visit
“magpie-friendly” gardens for food</a>, having thus almost entirely suppressed their escape responses in those locations. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/magpies-can-form-friendships-with-people-heres-how-83950">Magpies can form friendships with people – here's how</a>
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<p>It is likely that a magpie’s first warning of an approaching aircraft comes via sound, rather than sight. So my colleagues and I, together with investigators from <a href="http://www.avisure.com/">Avisure</a>, a consultancy that develops and implements bird hazard management at several Australian airports, examined magpies’ responses to recordings of light aircraft noise. We looked at wild-living magpies at the RAAF base at Point Cook, Victoria, as well as those living further away from the air base.</p>
<p>We <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/wr/WR18039">found</a> that playbacks of take-off soundtracks produced more magpie responses, and more intense responses, than did landing soundtracks. </p>
<p>Responses were least likely and were delayed among magpies living at the air base, compared with those that live further away. This suggests that magpies adjust their behaviour when they are routinely exposed to aircraft.</p>
<p>While it remains unknown whether this adjustment influences strike risk, it does raise a crucial question: should we seek to retain or remove birds at airports that have apparently got used to living alongside aircraft? Their reduced responsiveness might mean that they routinely come close to aircraft, but it might also mean they are less inclined to undertake risky escape flights.</p>
<p>Removing experienced birds might mean that other, more naïve birds move in to take their place, potentially increasing the bird strike risk still further. This question, and many others, remains open.</p>
<p>But one thing is clear from the research so far: birds are not just passive objects getting in the way – they make complex, nuanced decisions in the face of aircraft collision risk, and our approach should reflect this fact.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/97177/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Weston does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Magpies living near airports are less likely to flee from the sound of passing planes, new research shows. But it’s unclear whether this makes them more or less likely to actually get hit.Mike Weston, Associate Professor, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/946302018-04-11T20:04:05Z2018-04-11T20:04:05ZAre there two pilots in the cockpit?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213667/original/file-20180407-5600-5qdgkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C1495%2C916&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pay attention!</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ever since the early days of commercial aviation, flight safety has steadily improved. Considering the number of flights, accidents are now extremely rare, and 70% of them are attributable to human factors. This has led to research in psychology, cognitive science and, more recently, in <a href="https://www.isae-supaero.fr/IMG/pdf/neuroergonomics4pages.pdf">neuroergonomics</a>. Researchers have been investigating factors such as drowsiness, stress, attention, workload, communication, and cognitive biases. One that has been surprisingly overlooked is that of social relations within the cockpit.</p>
<p>Commercial-airline crews are made up of one or two first officers and a designated leader, the captain. While all the pilots have the necessary skills to fly the aircraft, the captain is legally responsible for the flight. They are more experienced, better paid and often significantly older than first officers. Before takeoff, the captain decides who will pilot the aircraft and who will monitor the instruments, checklists and communication. The power imbalance between the two creates a hierarchical system. Depending on the situation and the pilots’ personalities, this imbalance can sometimes compromise communication and adversely influence decision making.</p>
<h2>Power and cognitive bias</h2>
<p>Being in a position of power increases the risk of cognitive bias. The halo effect – i.e., the tendency to judge people on the basis of their characteristics (such as ethnicity, age, cast, religion, etc.) or past events unrelated to the situation at hand – can severely affect captains. This happened in 2011 during the approach of <a href="http://www.bst-tsb.gc.ca/eng/rapports-reports/aviation/2011/a11h0002/a11h0002.pdf">First Air flight 6560</a>, when the relatively inexperienced first officer noticed that the aircraft was veering sightly off-course. The captain – who, unlike the first officer, had flown many times over the Arctic region – believed the instruments were simply adversely impacted by the proximity of the north magnetic pole. Blinded by his first officer’s relative lack of experience, the captain ignored the latter’s repeated warnings and suggestions to go around. The mistake proved fatal to the captain, the first officer and 10 passengers.</p>
<p>Captains can also be affected by the false-consensus bias – the tendency to believe that those around us approve of our ideas and actions to a far greater extent than is actually the case. Also, the higher a person’s position in the hierarchy, the less negative feedback he or she will openly receive from subordinates. Therefore, the greater the power imbalance between the captain and the first officer, the higher the risk of false-consensus bias in the cockpit.</p>
<h2>First officers or passive observers?</h2>
<p>Captains aren’t the only ones to be affected by this power imbalance. In the 1970s, a <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/5110108">study</a> carried out in a flight simulator showed that when the captains pretended to lose consciousness during a landing, nearly one in four first officers failed to take over the controls. Given the changes that have taken place in cockpit organisation since that time, it is unlikely that a new study would produce such worrying results. However, it demonstrates that under certain conditions first officers can feel less engaged, responsible or legitimate than the captain, and fail to react appropriately.</p>
<p>An overly authoritarian captain can severely exacerbate this tendency and even paralyse the first officers to the point that they become mere bystanders. This occurred during the crash of <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5422f0a5ed915d13710002fb/3-2003_HL-7451.pdf">Korean Air cargo flight 8509</a>. The captain, a domineering former military pilot, made a catastrophic error. The first officer noticed but did nothing for fear of reprisal. The aircraft hit the ground less than 60 seconds after take off, killing everyone on board.</p>
<p>Finally, the halo bias can also affect first officers, who sometimes see the captain as all-knowing and infallible. They are less inclined to challenge the captains and more likely to bow to their decisions (conformity bias), which can have a negative effect on safety.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212776/original/file-20180401-189827-57vagn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212776/original/file-20180401-189827-57vagn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212776/original/file-20180401-189827-57vagn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212776/original/file-20180401-189827-57vagn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212776/original/file-20180401-189827-57vagn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212776/original/file-20180401-189827-57vagn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212776/original/file-20180401-189827-57vagn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">US Airways flight 1549 in the Hudson River, New York, on January 15, 2009. After the aircraft’s engines failed and no airport was sufficiently close for an emergency landing, Captain Chesley Sullenberger, assisted by co-pilot Jeffrey Skiles, chose to set down in the Hudson. He kept the landing gear up, to allow the plane to land relatively smoothly. All 150 passengers and 5 crew members were brought to safety.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Greg L./Wikipedia</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What next?</h2>
<p>So why not simply abolish hierarchy among pilots? There are sound reasons not to. First of all, the hierarchical structure has demonstrated, time and again, its effectiveness in cases of emergency. Take, for example, the January 2009 landing of <a href="https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Reports/AAR1003.pdf">US Airways flight 1549</a> on the Hudson River, or the management of 55 failures brought on by the explosion of an engine on <a href="http://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/investigation_reports/2010/aair/ao-2010-089.aspx">Qantas flight 32</a> in November 2010. Moreover, a lack of hierarchy can prove just as disastrous, as it was for the two first officers at the controls of the <a href="https://www.bea.aero/docspa/2009/f-cp090601/pdf/f-cp090601.pdf">Rio-Paris flight</a>.</p>
<p>Eliminating pilot hierarchy is therefore not an appropriate solution. Instead, it would be more effective to focus on pilot training. The first priority is to better educate pilots about the issues associated with hierarchy. Secondly, more research is necessary to better understand and deal with these complex phenomena. In the medium to long term, this should allow us to come up with innovative solutions to these problems.</p>
<p>Above all, it is vital to develop procedures that would allow:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Optimal communication between pilots. It can be adversely affected by the hierarchical power imbalance.</p></li>
<li><p>First-officer assertiveness. Problems arise when they are passive or when their work has been undermined or neglected.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>This is particularly relevant as the boom in air traffic has led passengers to fly with airlines from countries where the culture of hierarchy is strong and therefore the risks higher. Furthermore, societies are evolving and the aviation industry is opening up to previously excluded groups such as women and people from lower casts, which may in some cases heighten problems linked to hierarchy. A detailed study of the impact of social factors on the way crews operate would be a boon to aviation safety.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=121&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=121&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=121&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=152&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=152&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=152&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>Created in 2007, the Axa Research Fund supports more than 500 projects around the world, conducted by researchers from 51 countries. To learn more about Eve Fabre’s research, visit our dedicated site</em>.</p>
<p><em>Translated from the French by Alice Heathwood for <a href="http://www.fastforword.fr/en/">Fast for Word</a></em>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94630/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eve Fabre has received funding from the European Union, the DGA and the AXA Research Fund.</span></em></p>In the cockpit of an aircraft, the hierarchy between captain and co-pilot is strictly respected. At the risk, sometimes, of poor decision-making.Eve Fabre, Chercheure en Facteur Humain & Neurosciences Sociales, ISAE-SUPAEROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/845022017-09-25T09:59:13Z2017-09-25T09:59:13ZWhat happens when a bird strikes a plane?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187180/original/file-20170922-17262-14fo311.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Keeping its distance.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/bird-looking-airplane-474366367?src=ZzRYtnf_OVTWofTzKuNbdA-2-45">Sudpoth Sirirattanasakul/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In bowling, a strike is the best shot you can make. In aviation jargon, however, a strike happens when a bird suddenly crosses the trajectory of an aeroplane. Usually, with an adverse outcome for the bird.</p>
<p>It’s not a rare occurrence for a bird and a plane to collide. A recent Japan Airlines plane bound for New York had to <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/05/japan-airlines-flight-emergency-landing-bird-strike/">make an emergency landing</a> due to a bird strike, while another plane <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-south-east-wales-41348519">was forced to return to Cardiff Airport</a> in Wales after a bird hit an engine. </p>
<p>In 2016 there were 1,835 confirmed bird strikes in the UK alone – <a href="https://www.caa.co.uk/Data-and-analysis/Safety-and-security/Datasets/Birdstrikes/">about eight every 10,000 flights</a>. These can have a huge impact on airlines:
planes struck by birds have to be carefully inspected for what is known as <a href="https://publicapps.caa.co.uk/docs/33/Paper201303.pdf">barely visible impact damage</a>, which may become dangerous if undetected. </p>
<p>Only about 5% of bird strikes result in damage to the aeroplane. However, as a precaution, all struck aeroplanes return to the nearest airport, passengers have to be disembarked and booked onto another flight with a fresh crew – all of which can have a huge impact on the airline’s operations. It is very difficult to figure out indirect costs, but <a href="https://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/civilaviation/publications/tp13549-chapter1-2366.htm#the_high_costs%20more%20than%20$500%20million%20per%20year">Transport Canada estimates</a> that in North America it tops US$500m.</p>
<h2>Everybody’s heard about the bird</h2>
<p>Birds don’t fly very high. A 2006 study reported that <a href="http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1496&context=icwdm_usdanwrc">three-quarters of bird strikes occur below 150 metres</a>, when the aeroplane would be in the initial phases of takeoff, or in the final phases of landing. The aircraft’s speed is slower at this point, than it would be at altitude, the landing gear might be extended, and so quick evasive manoeuvres are difficult. The outcome generally depends on the part of the aeroplane that is affected. Aeroplanes are designed to withstand incredible forces, so although engineers are cautious, there is often nothing to worry about.</p>
<p>Plane engines, for example, are designed to be very robust. Certification criteria impose a rule that large engines must withstand a impact with any bird over 3.5kg without any dangerously fast and sharp debris departing from the engine. In fact, most engines can survive a bird ingestion with only minor damage to the blades.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rSafRuLB0c0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>A double engine bird strike is extremely unlikely (although <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/jan/15/us-airways-plane-crash-new-york-hudson-river">a now famous flock of poor Canadian geese might disagree</a>), but if one engine failed due to a bird strike, it wouldn’t matter. All aircraft are designed to work just fine with an engine out. In fact most are certified to cross half an ocean <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-etops-282945">on a single engine</a>.</p>
<p>It’s not just engines that are at risk, when a bird is stuck, however. Cockpit windows can be hit too. However, these panels are usually made of three layers of laminated acrylic and glass, designed to withstand hail inside a thunderstorm – so a bird is generally not a huge problem. The presence of multiple layers ensures the aeroplane remains pressurised too, just in case the outermost layer gets damaged. In addition, pilots are trained to turn on window heating –- normally used to prevent ice build up at altitude – before takeoff, to make the windows softer and less fragile in case of impact.</p>
<h2>Prevention and detection</h2>
<p>To make sure that no bird has to suffer such a terrible fate, airports have also been trying various measures to prevent them from even coming close to planes. Predatory bird sound recordings, cartridge scarers – which produce loud bangs and flashes of light – mechanical falcons, trained falcons and drones have all been used. These measures work in the short term, but the common belief is that birds tend to get used to the new disturbance fairly soon. Besides, birds love airports. Lots of green, large empty areas surrounded by trees, and nearby bins are very attractive to wildlife.</p>
<p>Quite often the suggestion that engines should be <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16438-comment-why-we-cant-stop-birds-downing-aircraft/">protected with a grille</a> crops up, but this is not an easy solution. The main issue is that to effectively block the bird at 800km/h, the grid has to be significantly sturdy and thick, but this will disrupt the air flowing into the engine. Engines are efficient because they’re finely designed to exploit the very thin air found at an altitude, so the downsides of a protective grille far outweigh the benefits. </p>
<p>As commercial drones become an <a href="https://www.engadget.com/2017/03/31/uk-drones-near-misses-planes-heathrow/">increasing concern</a> the industry is calling for systems that tell pilots how severe an impact is, so that they can continue flying if there is no damage. Researchers at <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1359836814003849?via%3Dihub">Cardiff</a>, and <a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0964-1726/22/8/085014/meta">Imperial</a> universities in the UK, and others across the world, are working on different sensors and materials that can self-assess plane health, and potentially end the need for disrupted flights.</p>
<p>The idea is to develop a low-power, low-weight, potentially wireless, system that detects the location and severity of damage. It may take more than a decade to certify such a system, but ultimately pilots will be informed if it’s safe to continue after an impact. If they have to land, maintenance will know what to inspect, and spare parts will be ready before the plane reaches the airport.</p>
<p>Until then, prevention, design, and thoroughly trained pilots are our defences against bird strikes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84502/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Davide Crivelli does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s not as dangerous as you might think.Davide Crivelli, Lecturer in Mechanical Engineering, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/734422017-02-28T01:40:05Z2017-02-28T01:40:05ZAirport privatisations have put profit before public safety and good planning<p>The <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-21/five-passenger-plane-crashes-near-melbournes-essendon-airport/8288964">plane crash at Essendon Airport</a> last week shows the folly of allowing runways to co-exist with commercial development. Tullamarine Airport opened in 1970 partly because of the risk to housing from aircraft at Essendon. Why, then, have authorities <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-22/plane-crash-at-essendon-shopping-centre-a-tragic-mess/8290906">allowed extensive new development</a> within Essendon Airport’s boundaries between housing and runways?</p>
<p>Between 1997 and 2003, the federal government <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/222526911_The_privatisation_of_Australia's_airports">provided 99-year airport leases</a> to private consortia, raising A$8.5 billion. This process illustrates how privatisation can lead to unaccountable incremental actions and impacts that public authorities didn’t anticipate.</p>
<p>Since then, in effect, lessees have enjoyed the privileged position in Australian planning law of being able to decide their own futures. The exclusion of such large areas as airports from broader metropolitan planning threatens orderly planning on a grand scale. </p>
<p>Planning academics Robert Freestone and Douglas Baker <a href="http://eprints.qut.edu.au/34167/1/c34167.pdf">have argued</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The prospect of market opportunities from property development and commercial initiatives was a key factor in the high prices secured for airport leases.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This process was compromised if higher prices than those justified by leases were reciprocated by commercial approvals. Any future development assessment would be predetermined towards approval. This would prevent fair consideration of objections, resulting in a lack of proper scrutiny in the public interest.</p>
<h2>Airport business is booming</h2>
<p>Commercial development is now integrated with traditional airport operations across Australia. But aside from possible reciprocal financial expectations, privatisation has provided extraordinary bargains to lessees through large capital and operational returns.</p>
<p>Linfox Group and Beck Corporation, for example, made a reported payment in 2001 of $22 million for a lease on 305 hectares of prime inner-urban land at Essendon Airport. They have turned this into a <a href="https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjdwLHB8a7SAhVFebwKHRNWD9QQFggbMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.afr.com%2Freal-estate%2Fessendon-fields-beck-fox-22m-lease-turns-into-1b-property-in-15-years-20161115-gspxxk&usg=AFQjCNFoj9uQR16gW9w2iMSzo7m5oH0XGA&bvm=bv.148073327,d.dGc">projected $1 billion enterprise</a> over the next decade. One-quarter of the airport is leased to commercial tenants. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158481/original/image-20170227-27393-km5m3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158481/original/image-20170227-27393-km5m3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158481/original/image-20170227-27393-km5m3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=619&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158481/original/image-20170227-27393-km5m3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=619&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158481/original/image-20170227-27393-km5m3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=619&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158481/original/image-20170227-27393-km5m3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=778&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158481/original/image-20170227-27393-km5m3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=778&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158481/original/image-20170227-27393-km5m3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=778&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Essendon is now the largest corporate jet base in Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/awilson154/16604314516">Alec Wilson/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Business zones adjoin or wrap around runways. The plane crashed into a large retail DFO complex. An eight-storey 150-bed hotel, conference centre, a five-storey office block, private hospital, supermarket, auto centre and much else have also been built or are planned. Projected employment in the precinct is 18,000. </p>
<p>Air traffic has expanded significantly too. Essendon is home to executive air, charter, freight, media and regional air services, air ambulance, police and private aircraft. Essendon is Australia’s largest corporate jet base.</p>
<p>All this activity reinforces the public danger from the incompatibility of air and commercial land uses under privatised governance arrangements.</p>
<h2>Operators bypass state planning rules</h2>
<p>Under the Airports Act, Essendon Airports Pty Ltd must prepare a management plan outlining airport development for 20 years. The privatised management of airports inherited the Commonwealth’s constitutional overriding of state and territory land-use planning provisions. Master plans must only address “consistency” with state and local planning schemes. </p>
<p>However, airport lessees are not required to act on submissions. Essendon Airport Pty Ltd gave “due regard to all written comments”, then forwarded submissions and its <a href="http://www.essendonairport.com.au/planning/masterplan">master plan</a> to the federal government. The Commonwealth approved the plan in 2014 regardless of broader urban planning considerations. </p>
<p>Victorian government planning policy has attempted to concentrate commercial development in mixed-use centres well served by public transport. Essendon Airport is a classic road-based, out-of-centre location. It was not identified as an activity centre in Melbourne metropolitan planning. But, for 30 years, no Victorian government has shown an appetite for curbing out-of-centre development.</p>
<p>The 2014 metropolitan plan, <a href="http://www.planmelbourne.vic.gov.au/Plan-Melbourne">Plan Melbourne</a>, proposed to “investigate opportunities for … increased development and employment” at Essendon. Airport management <a href="http://planmelbourne.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/294836/247-Macroplan-for-Essendon-Fields.pdf">submitted a case</a> to the revised metropolitan strategy process for recognition as an activity centre.</p>
<p>State and local authorities originally expressed concern at the proposal to construct the DFO at Essendon Airport. However, more recently, local and state attitudes have changed. </p>
<p>In 2014, the Liberal planning minister, Matthew Guy, announced a new airport employment precinct and a partnership between the developers, Metropolitan Planning Authority and state and local governments. The airport was identified as both a key transport gateway and important commercial area.</p>
<p>Labor Niddrie MP Ben Carroll also <a href="http://www.theweeklyreview.com.au/uncategorized/1798657-2-billion-development-of-essendon-fields-and-airport-west/">welcomed the expansion</a> of commercial activities. Moonee Valley Council expressed concerns but did not oppose the major proposed land uses. Councillors expressed the view that Essendon Fields is “<a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/hotel-plans-for-airport-precinct-20130903-2t35w.html">an important economic hub</a>” and a “<a href="http://www.theweeklyreview.com.au/uncategorized/1798657-2-billion-development-of-essendon-fields-and-airport-west/">vibrant business precinct</a>”.</p>
<p>The then federal infrastructure minister, Warren Truss, <a href="http://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/wt/releases/2015/July/wt217_2015.aspx">said in 2015</a> that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Airports are now business destinations in their own right and provide a powerful economic engine for their home region and local communities.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In similar language, Essendon Airport Pty Ltd CEO Chris Cowan <a href="http://www.essendonairport.com.au/community/community-info-booklet">said</a> that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Essendon Airport [provides] a unique opportunity to reinforce its activity centre function by realising non-aviation development potential. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Everybody is now speaking from the same script.</p>
<p>State and local policy has increasingly become aligned with the Commonwealth helping to further the private interests of airport operators at increasing risk to the public. </p>
<p>Instead, airport governance should redefine Commonwealth responsibilities to its citizens and be integrated with broader metropolitan planning. This ultimately may mean closing down airport operations at Essendon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73442/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Buxton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Airport operators enjoy the privileged position in Australian planning law of being able to decide their own futures. Their exemption from state planning rules threatens orderly planning and safety.Michael Buxton, Professor of Environment and Planning, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.