tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/aircraft-2290/articles
Aircraft – The Conversation
2024-01-12T17:38:54Z
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/221023
2024-01-12T17:38:54Z
2024-01-12T17:38:54Z
Boeing needs to get real: the 737 Max should probably be scrapped
<p>The Boeing 737 Max is in the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/boeings-ongoing-737-max-crisis-2024-01-06/">news again</a>, this time because the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ek_KjQCoVV4">door plug</a> on a brand-new plane <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/alaska-airlines-grounds-all-boeing-737-9-max-planes-after-mid-flight-window-blowout-13042962">came off</a> soon after take-off. The pilots of the Alaska Airlines flight from Portland, Oregon, managed to return the Max 9 safely to Portland International Airport, but the consequences would have been far more serious had the incident occurred at cruising height a few minutes later. </p>
<p>Alaska Airlines and fellow US carrier United Airlines have also <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-67919436">discovered</a> loose hardware and connections on their fleets of 737 Max planes. The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/boeing-737-9-max-alaska-airlines-blowout-cannot-happen-again-official-investigation-into-jet-under-way-13046391">has now grounded</a> 171 Boeing aircraft, mostly operated by Alaska Airlines and United Airlines, pending inspections.</p>
<p>The 737 Max is a series of narrow-body commercial aircraft developed as an upgrade to the highly successful <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_Next_Generation">Boeing 737 Next Generation</a> (NG) series. First delivered in 2017, it <a href="https://www.icelandair.com/about/our-fleet/boeing-737-max/">was designed</a> to be even more fuel efficient and with more power supplied by bigger engines. </p>
<p>It has attracted more demand than Boeing can supply, but has faced significant challenges. Most notable were crashes in <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/indonesia-report-finds-fatal-lion-air-jet-crash-due-boeing-n1071796#:%7E:text=Plane%20plunged%20into%20the%20Java,%2C%202018%2C%20killing%20189%20people.&text=JAKARTA%2C%20Indonesia%20%E2%80%94%20An%20Indonesian%20investigation,inadequate%20training%20and%20maintenance%20problems.">Indonesia (2018)</a> and <a href="https://www.barrons.com/news/inquiry-into-2019-ethiopian-air-crash-confirms-software-failure-01671821708">Ethiopia (2019)</a>, which were partly caused by technical problems and killed 346 people. </p>
<p>So why have there been <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/boeings-ongoing-737-max-crisis-2024-01-06/">all these problems</a> and what can be done? </p>
<h2>Design and manufacturing</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.aviationtoday.com/2019/10/28/lion-air-737-max-final-accident-report-cites-aoa-sensor-mcas-as-contributing-factors/">An investigation</a> following the Indonesia crash revealed issues with an automated flight control system called the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS). This was designed to prevent the 737 Max <a href="https://simpleflying.com/airplane-stalls/">from stalling</a>, which had been made more likely by its larger engines. Yet the system’s complexity and reliance on a single sensor made it vulnerable to failure. </p>
<p>The MCAS was also involved in the Ethiopian crash, albeit the <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/final-report-on-boeing-737-max-crash-disputed-agencies-note-pilot-error-as-a-factor/">US safety agency</a> argued pilot errors were the main cause. Boeing <a href="https://www.boeing.com/commercial/737max/737-max-software-updates.page">subsequently issued</a> a <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/boeings-fix-tames-the-tiger-in-the-737-max-flight-controls/">software fix</a> for the MCAS problem. So far as we are aware, it has now been resolved. </p>
<p>Besides the most recent issues with Alaska and United, quality and safety problems have included <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/02/boeing-notifies-faa-of-737-max-parts-that-may-be-susceptible-to-failure.html">unsatisfactory wing components</a> in 2019. In 2023, suppliers were poorly attaching <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/boeing-pauses-deliveries-some-737-maxs-amid-new-supplier-problem-2023-04-13/">aircraft fittings</a> and <a href="https://www.flyingmag.com/extra-holes-drilled-in-737-max-pressure-bulkheads-boeing/">drilling unnecessary holes</a>. </p>
<p>While these defects could be blamed on manufacturing, unwieldy designs make it difficult to manufacture products at scale while meeting quality requirements. So, you have to question whether poor design and unrealistically high volume expectations are ultimately what has happened to the 737 Max. </p>
<p>The fact that door plug problem and loose bolts are cropping up at a time when <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/boeing-boosts-monthly-737-production-38-defense-unit-struggles-2023-07-26/">Boeing is trying</a> to ramp up 737 Max production to about double the pre-pandemic level – and the pressure to achieve the pre-pandemic stock price – makes design all the more suspect. </p>
<p><strong>Boeing share price:</strong></p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569070/original/file-20240112-23-v1l2za.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Boeing share price chart" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569070/original/file-20240112-23-v1l2za.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569070/original/file-20240112-23-v1l2za.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569070/original/file-20240112-23-v1l2za.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569070/original/file-20240112-23-v1l2za.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569070/original/file-20240112-23-v1l2za.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569070/original/file-20240112-23-v1l2za.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569070/original/file-20240112-23-v1l2za.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.tradingview.com/">Trading View</a></span>
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<p>Moreover, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/09/boeing-737-max-internal-messages">leaked internal documents</a> from 2015-18 have revealed that employees who worked on the Max planes believed the design was unsound. Hundreds of internal messages showed them referring to the “piss-poor design” and one “designed by clowns” who were “supervised by monkeys”. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54174223">US Congressional report</a> in 2020 into the 737 Max crashes said: “Boeing failed in its design and development of the 737 Max, and the FAA failed in its oversight of Boeing and its certification of the aircraft.” It also pointed to too close a relationship with the FAA. </p>
<p>Boeing’s approach to manufacturing costs may also be a factor. Former employees <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/boeing-fifth-estate-costs-safety-1.5426571">previously suggested</a> it had imported a culture that was very focused on cost-cutting when it bought rival US aerospace manufacturer <a href="https://simpleflying.com/mcdonnel-douglas-boeing-merger/">McDonnell Douglas</a> back in 1997. Boeing <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2014/9/10/interview-the-former-boeing-union-president">has denied</a> that it has compromised on product safety or quality for any reason whatsoever. </p>
<p>Assembly line workers on the 737 Max have <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/04f6f45e-1c2c-11ea-97df-cc63de1d73f4">reportedly faced</a> intense pressure to meet production deadlines, while a former senior manager claimed in 2019 he had sent urgent emails and letters to <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/04f6f45e-1c2c-11ea-97df-cc63de1d73f4">the company’s leadership</a> to shut down production. Boeing <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/04f6f45e-1c2c-11ea-97df-cc63de1d73f4">has denied</a> that assembly-line pressure had any bearing on the crashes, and pointed out that company’s commitment to safety was reflected in the fact that the whistleblower was able to brief its general counsel over his concerns. </p>
<p>Despite these alleged assembly-line issues, Boeing has not faced anything like the same problems with the other 737 variants or indeed with other planes like the 787 Dreamliner. Again, it indicates that the problem may ultimately be more to do with design of the 737 Max. </p>
<h2>What next</h2>
<p>So what happens now? Going by the previous debacles, the playbook is clear. The FAA will lift the grounding order in the coming weeks as politicians start complaining about orders being lost to Airbus. Boeing will swear all the planes are safe and that the production processes of the parts vendor in question, Kansas-based <a href="https://www.spiritaero.com/">Spirit AeroSystems</a>, have been reviewed (<a href="https://www.boeing.com/737-9-updates/index.page">Spirit has said</a> it is committed to ensuring every Boeing plane meets the highest safety and quality standards). </p>
<p>Then the White House will push developing countries to buy the Boeing 737 Max, as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/vietnam-air-signs-78-bln-deal-50-boeing-737-max-planes-white-house-says-2023-09-11/">President Biden did</a> in his visit with business leaders to Vietnam last September. All will be well – until it isn’t. </p>
<p>Instead, Boeing should suppress its political muscle and take a different approach. The 737 Max brand is so tarnished that it may be better to let go. More importantly, if the design is also ultimately unworkable at scale, it would be better to scrap it too rather than trying to push production even harder. </p>
<p>The good news for the company is that the 737 has been highly successful commercially going back to 1968, with a solid history of safety, not including the 737 Max. The 737 variants’ <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/boeing-737-max-crash-plane-door-future-b2476106.html">safety record</a> until the end of 2019 was the same as the narrow-body offering from Airbus, including the A320, but it has now become much worse with the 737 Max. </p>
<p>Boeing should arguably design a new narrow-body plane again based on the 737 Next Generation with higher efficiency and larger engines. The supply chain won’t need to be changed dramatically. It worked for previous 737s, so there is no reason it can’t work again. If cost-cutting has resulted in suppliers cutting too many corners, that needs to be revisited of course. </p>
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<p>Boeing President and CEO Dave Calhoun <a href="https://www.boeing.com/737-9-updates/index.page">said at</a> an all-employee safety meeting on January 9: “We’re going to have to demonstrate trust by our actions, by our willingness to work directly and transparently with them (customers).”</p>
<p>This is true, but the company’s first priority has to be to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/10/business/boeing-737-employees-messages.html">make sure</a> it has the trust of its workers by listening to their safety concerns and taking them onboard. </p>
<p>Only by addressing its culture can Boeing really end this crisis. There has been such a catalogue of sequential errors that anything short of a complete overhaul is only likely to compound the problem and put more lives at risk.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221023/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>ManMohan S Sodhi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
There have been so many problems with the 737 Max that the nuclear option may be the best way forward.
ManMohan S Sodhi, Professor of Operations and Supply Chain Management, City, University of London
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/212742
2023-09-06T19:05:39Z
2023-09-06T19:05:39Z
Air traffic control chaos: how human error can lead a tiny glitch to spiral out of control
<p>Several thousand passengers were stranded at airports, hotels and connection depots following the recent <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66644369">system-wide glitch of the UK air traffic control systems</a>. Some passengers were told of flight cancellations in advance, so they could make alternative travel plans. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, following some 2,000 flight cancellations over 48 hours, most passengers were either <a href="https://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/2023-08-29/a-nightmare-passengers-left-sleeping-on-airport-floor-as-flights-cancelled">sleeping on airport floors</a> or sitting on planes which were unable to take off. So what was the glitch and how did it create so much chaos?</p>
<p>The problems appear to have been caused by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/30/uk-air-traffic-control-failure-what-caused-it-and-who-will-have-to-pay">unusual data in a flight plan</a> submitted into the National Air Traffic Services (Nats) system by a French airline. This data couldn’t be processed because it wasn’t recognised by computers.</p>
<p>But it’s also worth considering whether there were organisational issues. It will be important to know how much senior staff knew about the systems they were in charge of and how proactive they were in addressing the problem.</p>
<p>From the managerial perspective, Nats can be divided into four different units. These are: local, regional, central and top (where the higher level of decision-making occurs). </p>
<p>In principle, controllers should be able to rectify the data error. In practice, a common approach is to mark and hold it temporarily – something called “error parking”. This can mitigate the problem as long as everything else continues to work properly. But this can also cause the error to “grow”, affecting other parts of the system.</p>
<p>This week, Nats released its a <a href="https://publicapps.caa.co.uk/docs/33/NERL%20Major%20Incident%20Investigation%20Preliminary%20Report.pdf">preliminary report</a> into the incident. Its chief executive Martin Rolfe said the error was “a one in 15 million” event. In a response, transport secretary Mark Harper said he wanted to “echo NATS’s apology to those who were caught up”.</p>
<p>However, the incident will also be subject to <a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-air-traffic-system-overhauled-ministers-inquiry-flights-chaos-2580435">investigation by the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA)</a>. There are some obvious questions to ask. </p>
<p>These focus on the roles played by managers in the identification of glitches and their repair, the quality of training offered to unit controllers, guidelines for standardised operating procedures – documenting day-to-day processes to make them repeatable – and support for resolving glitches.</p>
<p>In December 2013, an air traffic control system failure led authorities to recommend changes to Nats’ “crisis management capabilities” and for it to consider the different ways crises can be handled. A year later, another incident occurred, caused by a fault in software written in the Ada programming language that was developed in the 1980s. </p>
<p>The resulting <a href="https://www.caa.co.uk/media/r42hircd/nats-system-failure-12-12-14-independent-enquiry-final-report-2-0-1.pdf">enquiry report</a> said that “it is evident that neither of these recommendations had been addressed fully”. It made further recommendations to strengthen systems and contingency steps to help ensure they were “sensitive to their impact on the wider aviation system”.</p>
<p>For the most recent incident, the picture remains unclear. But, in my experience as a researcher of management, managers further up the chain can often pay more attention to immediate threats. They may therefore underestimate the impact of accumulated errors, or may not have enough time to monitor them.</p>
<h2>Bigger picture</h2>
<p>There has been stinging criticism of the chaos from figures within the industry, including the director general of the International Air Transport Association, <a href="https://www.cityam.com/former-british-airways-boss-criticises-staggering-air-traffic-control-failure/#:%7E:text=Former%20British%20Airways%20boss%20criticises%20'staggering'%20air%20traffic%20control%20failure,-Guy%20Taylor&text=It%20is%20%E2%80%9Cstaggering%E2%80%9D%20that%20the,from%20Britain's%20air%20traffic%20operator.">Willie Walsh</a>, Ryanair boss <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/ryanair-michael-o-leary-air-traffic-control-b2401251.html">Michael O'Leary</a> and <a href="https://www.cityam.com/easyjet-boss-questions-whether-nats-is-fit-for-purpose-after-air-traffic-control-failure/">Johan Lundgren</a>, chief executive of Easyjet.</p>
<p>“This system should be designed to reject data that’s incorrect, not to collapse,” Walsh explained. Lundgren said a review of the situation should determine whether NATs is “really fit for purpose, not only on the systems but on the technology, on the staffing levels”. O'Leary said the preliminary report into the chaos was <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66723586">“full of excuses”</a>.</p>
<p>With that in mind, it’s reasonable to ask questions of managers in charge of the systems and procedures, including whether everything possible was done to avoid the disruption seen during the bank holiday.</p>
<p>Another point to bear in mind: many senior managers – particularly at chief executive and managing director level – are not necessarily technicians. This means that they may not be fully aware of glitches or their potential impacts if the problems have not previously been reported.</p>
<p>Sometimes, front-line workers may have <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1467-6486.00387">reasons not to report problems</a>. For example, they might not be significant enough. Or, employees might feel that raising their heads above the parapet could limit their career opportunities. Unfortunately, as long as the glitch is not salient and the machine still works, people usually ignore it.</p>
<p>What’s currently unclear is the precise role management culture, decision making or an inability by senior staff to understand parts of the system might have played in this – if at all. That will be for the CAA investigation to disentangle. </p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>Problems affecting air traffic control have the potential to spark a crisis of consumer confidence which must be addressed as a matter of urgency. There are a couple of things that should already be happening. </p>
<p>Nats has now apologised to the affected passengers. But managers and authorities should also offer replacement flights, coupons or other objects of comparable value as compensation. A phone line or website should be set up to ease the situation.</p>
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<img alt="Air traffic control tower" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546183/original/file-20230904-23-14zua9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546183/original/file-20230904-23-14zua9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546183/original/file-20230904-23-14zua9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546183/original/file-20230904-23-14zua9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546183/original/file-20230904-23-14zua9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546183/original/file-20230904-23-14zua9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546183/original/file-20230904-23-14zua9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/diverse-air-traffic-control-team-working-1978893014">Gorodenkoff / Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Managers have been <a href="https://www.nats.aero/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/NATS-Limited-2022.pdf">improving communication</a> between technicians and non-technicians and should be praised for this change in attitudes. The more two sides talk to each other, the lower the chances of something like this happening again.</p>
<p>However, the damage to the aviation industry from this episode has been severe. The risk for the industry is that passengers affected by the problems may look to alternative forms of transport in the future. In addition, aviation insurers may significantly raise the insurance premium, ultimately affecting the cost of flying for consumers.</p>
<p>The CAA has a very serious job to do.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212742/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kirk Chang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
The chaos caused over the August bank holiday may well have been preventable.
Kirk Chang, Professor of Management and Technology, University of East London
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/212358
2023-08-28T06:04:16Z
2023-08-28T06:04:16Z
‘Every flight is a learning event’: why the V-22 Osprey aircraft won’t be grounded despite dozens of crashes and 54 fatalities
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544976/original/file-20230828-20049-yzlt1r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=23%2C53%2C3712%2C2287&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/us-air-force-bell-boeing-v22-2293652609">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>At the weekend a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-27/nt-us-marines-killed-plane-crash-melville-island-tiwi-osprey/102781722">V-22 Osprey aircraft crashed</a> on Melville Island north of Darwin. Of the 23 US Marine Corps personnel onboard, three died, five were taken to Darwin hospital in a serious condition, and some others had more minor injuries. </p>
<p>The craft was part of the <a href="https://www.marforpac.marines.mil/MRFDarwin/Category/10812/">Marine Rotational Force - Darwin</a>, a unit of up to 2,500 US marines that has been based in the Northern Territory from April to October each year since 2012. This is the most serious accident in that 11-year period.</p>
<p>The Osprey is a relatively new type of aircraft, with a patchy track record for safety. But the advantages it offers for the military – and perhaps for civilians – mean we will only be seeing more of it in the future.</p>
<h2>What is the V-22 Osprey?</h2>
<p>The Osprey has long been controversial, initially for its high cost and long development time, and in recent years <a href="https://taskandpurpose.com/tech-tactics/v-22-osprey-crash-history/">for safety concerns</a>. </p>
<p>These issues reflect the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vzqhddVG7o">revolutionary design</a> of the craft: it is a kind of plane–helicopter hybrid called a tiltrotor, which means the wing tilts upward for takeoff and landing and back down again for level flight. If this sounds complex, it is.</p>
<p>The Osprey is at the <a href="https://www.boeing.com/defense/v-22-osprey/">leading edge</a> of aviation technology, with nothing else in operational service like it. The aircraft was built to replace helicopters and is used by the US Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps, and the <a href="https://news.usni.org/2020/07/14/japan-self-defense-force-accepts-delivery-of-first-v-22-osprey">Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544980/original/file-20230828-17-dk08cw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sand coloured tarmac and a white plane with two rotors on top seen from the side" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544980/original/file-20230828-17-dk08cw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544980/original/file-20230828-17-dk08cw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544980/original/file-20230828-17-dk08cw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544980/original/file-20230828-17-dk08cw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544980/original/file-20230828-17-dk08cw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544980/original/file-20230828-17-dk08cw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544980/original/file-20230828-17-dk08cw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A US Marines V-22 Osprey at the Naval Air Station Miramar, California.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/miramar-california-usa-oct-15-2006-365983805">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why is the Osprey so useful?</h2>
<p>The Marine Corps is by far the largest user, being attracted to the aircraft’s much longer range, much higher speed and good carrying capacity compared to conventional helicopters. </p>
<p>The Marine Corps is famous for landing soldiers across beaches during combat but in the modern era this is difficult. Potential adversaries now have excellent beach defences, and bringing ships close enough to shore to land soldiers via traditional naval landing craft or conventional helicopters is becoming unrealistic. </p>
<p>The Osprey solves this by allowing amphibious ships to remain hundreds of kilometres at sea and launch assaults onto the beach “from over the horizon”. A landing can now surprise an enemy, while the Osprey’s range allows many more possible landing sites to be accessed.</p>
<p>The Marines first brought the Osprey into service in 2007, and it has been central to the adoption of <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47614">a whole new way of war</a>. They have dispensed with heavy mechanised forces like tanks in favour of rapid manoeuvres, light vehicles, long-range missile technology and island hopping. </p>
<p>This approach of so-called Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations (EABO) is the <a href="https://mca-marines.org/wp-content/uploads/Maneuverist-19.pdf">Marine Corps answer</a> to China’s growing assertiveness in East Asia and to keeping the Corps relevant in the modern era. The Marines in Darwin now <a href="https://www.marines.mil/News/News-Display/Article/3162643/mrf-d-22-tests-eabo-concepts-on-south-pacific-island/">practise EABO</a>.</p>
<h2>Why is the Osprey’s safety record so patchy?</h2>
<p>That’s the upside. The downside of being leading-edge technology is having little historical experience of similar aircraft to fall back on. </p>
<p>Every Osprey flight is a learning event for the pilots, the maintenance personnel and the aircraft’s manufacturer. </p>
<p>For example, the US Air Force <a href="https://breakingdefense.com/2022/08/exclusive-air-force-special-operations-command-grounds-cv-22-ospreys-due-to-safety-issue/">grounded their Ospreys</a> for two weeks last year over worries about gearbox matters. This has been an ongoing problem that seems to get worse the more an aircraft is flown and the gearbox used; <a href="https://www.military.com/daily-news/2023/03/24/military-quietly-stops-buying-ospreys-aircraft-faces-uncertain-future.html">technical fixes</a> are in the works. </p>
<p>The central concern today is flying safety and here the Osprey has a mixed record. The aircraft had four crashes and 30 deaths during its initial development. </p>
<p>Since entering operational service in 2007 there have been an <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/27/asia/aircraft-incident-us-defense-personnel-australia-intl-hnk/index.html">additional ten crashes</a> and 24 deaths. </p>
<p>Two of these ten were on combat operations where the cause was uncertain. The others were due to pilot error or technical problems. </p>
<p>A fatal <a href="https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/harrowing-video-of-deadly-2017-mv-22-osprey-crash-emerges">crash off Rockhampton</a> in 2017 can be seen in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGVpFmOShAg">a terrifying video</a> that also shows operating the Osprey is a complicated business.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544977/original/file-20230828-25-badfi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A wide angle view of a cabin with two seats and a series of screens and complex controls in front" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544977/original/file-20230828-25-badfi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544977/original/file-20230828-25-badfi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544977/original/file-20230828-25-badfi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544977/original/file-20230828-25-badfi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544977/original/file-20230828-25-badfi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544977/original/file-20230828-25-badfi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544977/original/file-20230828-25-badfi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The cockpit of a V-22 Osprey on display at Dubai Airshow in 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Will the Osprey get safer?</h2>
<p>As the Osprey has flown more, more knowledge has been gained and the accident rate has declined. However, its accidents have tended to come in bunches. In the eight months from December 2016 to September 2017 there were three crashes; in the 18 months from March 2022 to now, there have been another three.</p>
<p>This all compares very unfavourably with American civil aviation, which has a much better safety record. In 2020, a <a href="https://www.flightglobal.com/safety/pentagon-convenes-safety-council-to-address-soaring-aviation-accident-rate/150010.article">report</a> by the National Commission on Military Aviation Safety said the main culprits for the US military’s air accidents were insufficient flying hours to keep aircrew proficient, inadequate personnel training, inconsistent funding for spare parts supply and risky maintenance practices. </p>
<p>The implication is that safety can be improved. It just needs to be properly addressed.</p>
<p>Historically, the safety record of revolutionary aircraft like the Osprey improves as more operating experience is gained and unknown technical problems are found and addressed. That was certainly the Australian experience with the F-111 strike aircraft, which had an early run of crashes followed by many years of safe operation.</p>
<h2>Will we see more tiltrotors like the Osprey in future?</h2>
<p>This is important as the Osprey looks set to be the first of its type, not the last. The US Army has chosen a new generation tiltrotor, <a href="https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2022/12/5/bell-tiltrotor-wins-billion-dollar-helo-contract">the V-280 Valor</a>, to replace its ageing Blackhawk helicopters. </p>
<p>Over time, the Valors will inevitably be deployed to Australia on training exercises. Meanwhile, Australia is <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-07/new-army-black-hawks-arrive-as-taipan-probe-continues/102695564">acquiring Blackhawks</a> to replace the Australian Army’s Taipan helicopters, which are apparently difficult to maintain.</p>
<p>When those new Blackhawks eventually are themselves replaced, it is likely Australia will go the way of the US and buy tiltrotors too. Civil aviation is getting <a href="https://helicopters.leonardo.com/en/products/aw609">interested in tiltrotors</a> as well.</p>
<p>Tiltrotors like the Osprey and its successors are likely to fly in Australian skies well into the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212358/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Layton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
54 people have died in crashes of the controversial ‘tiltrotor’ V-22 Osprey aircraft – but the military advantage it offers is too great to be discounted.
Peter Layton, Visiting Fellow, Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/209495
2023-07-26T20:05:26Z
2023-07-26T20:05:26Z
Cutting-edge new aircraft have increased NZ’s surveillance capacity – but are they enough in a changing world?
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539393/original/file-20230726-15-e0zlj5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C6%2C4504%2C2996&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">NZ Defence Force</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>New Zealand’s national security was strengthened this month when the Royal New Zealand Air Force’s newest Boeing P-8A Poseidon aircraft became operational. </p>
<p>A cutting-edge maritime surveillance aircraft, the P-8A is also operated by Australia, India, Norway, South Korea, the United Kingdom and the United States. It is now the New Zealand Airborne Surveillance and Response Force’s <a href="https://www.nzdf.mil.nz/nzdf/our-equipment/aircraft/boeing-p-8a-poseidon/">primary asset</a>.</p>
<p>The NZ$2.436 billion order of four P-8As allowed the retirement of six ageing turbo-prop P-3K Orions. The P-8A has an operating radius of 1,200 nautical miles (2,222kms), and its cruising speed of 470 knots (903km per hour) is 40% better than the P-3K’s. </p>
<p>With a crew of nine (pilots, flight engineers, and air warfare and ordinance specialists), it carries a suite of sensors, satellite communications, data links, and self-protection systems. </p>
<p>As well as search and rescue, the aircraft will conduct maritime surveillance and intelligence gathering, and are capable of anti-submarine and anti-surface warfare. </p>
<p>Air Vice-Marshal Andrew Clark describes the plane as “the modern standard in technology” for maritime surveillance. The question is, will it still be enough for the country’s future maritime security needs?</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1680786498688540673"}"></div></p>
<h2>Defence and military priorities</h2>
<p>We think of New Zealand as a small country, but geographically it is a large maritime nation. Its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) covers 4.4 million square km of ocean, a staggering 15 times larger than the land mass. </p>
<p>Intelligence, border security and resources agencies monitor commercial shipping and recreational boating in the EEZs of New Zealand, Niue and Raratonga. They also help other South Pacific neighbours secure their own EEZs.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nukes-allies-weapons-and-cost-4-big-questions-nzs-defence-review-must-address-188732">Nukes, allies, weapons and cost: 4 big questions NZ's defence review must address</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Maritime conventions also make New Zealand responsible for search and rescue over an extraordinary 4.5 million square nautical miles (15.4 million square km) of the South Pacific and Southern Ocean. </p>
<p>P-8As will be able to conduct searches and drop life rafts and survival equipment – but they were ordered to meet future defence and security challenges. </p>
<p>The 2018 <a href="https://www.defence.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/8958486b29/Strategic-Defence-Policy-Statement-2018.pdf">Strategic Defence Policy Statement</a> warned of military, cybersecurity, transnational crime and terrorism threats. Regional insecurity is also an issue, as rising waters and adverse weather events from global warming threaten Pacific countries. This year’s <a href="https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/media-and-resources/release-of-mfats-2023-strategic-foreign-policy-assessment-navigating-a-shifting-world-te-whakatere-i-tetahi-ao-hurihuri/">Strategic Foreign Policy Assessment</a> warns: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>In the short to medium term the future looks grim. The global strategic outlook will become more complex, while the Pacific and Indo-Pacific regions will be more contested and less stable.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Best use of resources</h2>
<p>The P-8A will be in service for six or seven decades. We are already witnessing increasing need for maritime surveillance with rising geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, as foreign investment in submarines and warships increases. </p>
<p>Australian P-8As are <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-24/first-image-of-australian-encounter-with-chinese-spy-ship/102637528">currently monitoring</a> two Chinese “spy ships” loitering near naval exercises off Australia. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-australia-signs-up-for-nuclear-subs-nz-faces-hard-decisions-over-the-aukus-alliance-201946">As Australia signs up for nuclear subs, NZ faces hard decisions over the AUKUS alliance</a>
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<hr>
<p>New Zealand’s area of interest is vast, including to the south, where the <a href="https://www.ats.aq/index_e.html">Antarctic Treaty</a> system is faltering. Several states are stepping up activities on a warming continent that is strategically situated and potentially rich in mineral resources. </p>
<p>New Zealand needs to exert its claim to territorial sovereignty in the Ross Dependency, and monitor and protect the Ross Sea Marine Protected Area.</p>
<p>But the Airborne Surveillance and Response Force is potentially burdened by two past decisions. First, the government approved only four P-8As. Despite its enhanced capabilities, this is still a one-third reduction in aircraft numbers.</p>
<p>Four is a bare minimum, given how servicing or overseas deployment could leave only two locally based functioning aircraft. A future government may need to consider whether the current fleet is enough.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/approach-with-caution-why-nz-should-be-wary-of-buying-into-the-aukus-security-pact-203915">Approach with caution: why NZ should be wary of buying into the AUKUS security pact</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Second, in 2001, the Labour government’s <a href="https://www.dpmc.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2017-03/maritime_patrol_review.pdf">Maritime Patrol Review</a> found it “hard to justify the retention of a comprehensive military maritime surveillance capability in New Zealand’s sea areas”. </p>
<p>The response was to pare back fighting capabilities and use the P-3K Orions as multi-agency assets. As well as search and rescue and humanitarian duties, they mainly monitored shipping, fisheries and conservation areas. This was seen as value for money for an expensive military aircraft.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539396/original/file-20230726-29-wqr7fn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539396/original/file-20230726-29-wqr7fn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539396/original/file-20230726-29-wqr7fn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539396/original/file-20230726-29-wqr7fn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539396/original/file-20230726-29-wqr7fn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539396/original/file-20230726-29-wqr7fn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539396/original/file-20230726-29-wqr7fn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One of Australia’s 12 P-8A aircraft under construction in the US in 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Time for a maritime patrol review</h2>
<p>Military capabilities were restored after 9/11, with the old Orions deployed to the Middle East and Japan (supporting UN sanctions against North Korea). But multi-agency tasks remain a legacy requirement for the P-8A – a specialised military aircraft with highly trained crews that could be focusing on honing war fighting capabilities. </p>
<p>Given the emerging threat environment, using these expensive aircraft for routine monitoring of shipping, fisheries and conservation areas may not represent value for money in the long term.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealands-maritime-territory-is-15-times-its-landmass-heres-why-we-need-a-ministry-for-the-ocean-210123">New Zealand's maritime territory is 15 times its landmass – here's why we need a ministry for the ocean</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Other air forces don’t divert as many P-8A flying hours to non-military tasks. Australia has 12 P-8As, supplemented by <a href="https://www.airforce.gov.au/aircraft/mq-4c-triton">MQ-4C Triton</a> unmanned drones. Its Border Force agency contracts a commercial organisation, Surveillance Australia, to patrol the Australian EEZ for illegal fishing, immigration and quarantine breaches, and human, drug and arms trafficking. </p>
<p>Border Force’s <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/how-to-engage-us-subsite/Pages/maritime-surveillance-capability-project.aspx">Future Maritime Surveillance Capability Project</a> seeks to update Australian maritime surveillance to be cost-effective, while also meeting the challenges of an evolving and complex national security environment. </p>
<p>New Zealand could also benefit from a fresh review to consider whether the modest fleet of P-8As should continue to be viewed as a multi-agency asset. The 2019 <a href="https://www.defence.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/03acb8c6aa/Defence-Capability-Plan-2019.pdf">Defence Capability Plan</a> signalled “an advanced air surveillance capability” that could include drones for multi-agency surveillance.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-climate-change-likely-to-sharpen-conflict-nz-balances-pacifist-traditions-with-defence-spending-118783">With climate change likely to sharpen conflict, NZ balances pacifist traditions with defence spending</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Monitoring the EEZ is important to combat transnational crime and fisheries poaching. In the future we may also encounter refugee boats fleeing regional conflict or environmental catastrophe. </p>
<p>But freeing up the P-8As from routine monitoring might actually be more cost-effective, using smaller aircraft, satellites and drones. Drones are cheaper to operate and can enhance flexibility with long-range and long-duration patrols. </p>
<p>This would ensure best-practice military employment of the P-8A in response to national, regional and international defence challenges.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209495/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Moremon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
The last of four new Boeing P-8A Poseidon aircraft has landed, substantially increasing New Zealand’s surveillance – and military – capacity. But how they are best deployed is open to debate.
John Moremon, Senior Lecturer in Defence Studies, Massey University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/201464
2023-05-04T23:57:52Z
2023-05-04T23:57:52Z
Curious Kids: What happens when you flush a toilet on a plane?
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514369/original/file-20230309-22-u0roc3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=31%2C0%2C3387%2C2412&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AirP72/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>What happens when you flush a toilet on a plane? –Lily, aged 6, Harcourt</em></p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/curious-kids-36782"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291898/original/file-20190911-190031-enlxbk.png" width="100%"></a></p>
<p>Lily this is a great question! It doesn’t work like your toilet at home, <a href="https://sciencing.com/explain-gravity-child-2100456.html">which uses gravity</a> to remove waste from our toilets into the sewer system. An aeroplane toilet uses a <a href="https://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/bitstream-download/123456789/75317/1/Medvediev_jes_2019_02.pdf;jsessionid=5A638D700F8C1151FA2F0ACA91E8DE1A">vacuum system</a> along with a blue chemical that cleans and removes odours every time you flush.</p>
<h2>A smelly tank</h2>
<p>The waste and blue cleaning fluid ends up in a storage tank under the floor, in the very back of the cargo hold of the aeroplane. With so many people on the plane using the toilets, you can imagine how big the storage tank is!</p>
<p>The system is designed very much like the vacuum cleaners we use around the house to remove dirt and dust from our floors. This dirt and dust ends up in a container that we empty into a garbage bin. Similarly, the aeroplane’s toilets need the vacuum pressure system to move all the waste from the toilet into the plumbing pipe that connects the toilet to the storage tank, and finally into the tank.</p>
<p>There is a valve on the storage tank that opens when a toilet is flushed and closes when the toilet is not in use – to prevent odours from leaving the tank. This helps to keep the smell down from so many people using the toilet during a flight. The blue chemical helps to keep the smell down as well. </p>
<h2>Where does it go once the plane lands?</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/indhealth/48/1/48_1_123/_pdf">special truck</a> comes to the aircraft after it lands and connects a hose to remove the waste and blue cleaning chemical into a storage tank on the truck. The truck plugs a hose into the airplane’s waste tank valve and removes all of the waste into the tank on the back of the truck.</p>
<p>The truck then takes the waste to a special area at the airport reserved for the waste from all aeroplanes, and the toilet waste is emptied into the sewer system for that airport. The training to operate the truck takes three days.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516840/original/file-20230322-135-1qr8v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The nose of a parked plane with several vehicles next to it, along with a fuel hose snaking along the ground" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516840/original/file-20230322-135-1qr8v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516840/original/file-20230322-135-1qr8v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516840/original/file-20230322-135-1qr8v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516840/original/file-20230322-135-1qr8v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516840/original/file-20230322-135-1qr8v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516840/original/file-20230322-135-1qr8v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516840/original/file-20230322-135-1qr8v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Various trucks and vehicles will service the plane, load fuel, load cargo and take away waste at the airport.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">aappp/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Watch out for blue ice</h2>
<p>It has also been reported that sometimes, particularly on older planes, the valve where the waste truck connects to the aeroplane <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_ice_(aviation)">can leak a small amount</a> of the waste and blue chemical. This turns to ice as the temperature at normal cruising altitude of 30,000 feet is normally around -56°C and the chemical turns to “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-28/facing-our-fears-of-falling-frozen-flight-faeces/9368144">blue ice</a>”. This blue ice remains attached to the plane as long as the temperature remains below freezing.</p>
<p>Once the aeroplane begins to descend to land at the destination airport, the blue ice begins to thaw and may even fall off. There have been several occasions <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bhopal/scientist-identifies-plane-which-dropped-blue-ice-on-mp-woman-wants-dgca-to-affirm/articleshow/54962752.cms?from=mdr">reported in the news</a> where people have witnessed this <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/canada/i-m-covered-in-poo-transport-canada-investigating-feces-falling-from-sky-1.3956501">flying poo</a>!</p>
<p>In case you were wondering, the captain of the plane doesn’t have a button to release the waste from the storage tank while the plane is flying. Any waste that might leak out of the plane would be totally accidental.</p>
<p>Some people do think <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2101611-chemtrails-conspiracy-theory-gets-put-to-the-ultimate-test/">aeroplane contrails</a> (the white lines planes sometimes leave in the sky) are either a special mind-control chemical or toilet waste. This is not true! What you are actually seeing are water vapours coming from the engine becoming <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/travel/2018/02/hot-topic-should-i-worry-about-chemtrails">ice crystals</a> – like a thin cloud in the sky.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-where-do-clouds-come-from-and-why-do-they-have-different-shapes-102404">Curious Kids: where do clouds come from and why do they have different shapes?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201464/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Doug Drury does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Unlike our toilets at home, plane toilets have to ‘suck’ the waste with a vacuum system. But don’t worry, it doesn’t get released into the air.
Doug Drury, Professor/Head of Aviation, CQUniversity Australia
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/196872
2022-12-20T04:34:03Z
2022-12-20T04:34:03Z
What is air turbulence?
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502061/original/file-20221220-18-124g72.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=29%2C14%2C4882%2C3254&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/iiqpxCg2GD4">Philip Myrtorp / Unsplash</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>You probably know the feeling: you’re sitting on a plane, happily cruising through the sky, when suddenly the seat-belt light comes on and things get a little bumpy.</p>
<p>Most of the time, turbulence leads to nothing worse than momentary jitters or perhaps a spilled cup of coffee. In rare cases, passengers or flight attendants might end up with some injuries.</p>
<p>What’s going on here? Why are flights usually so stable, but sometimes get so unsteady?</p>
<p>As a meteorologist and atmospheric scientist who studies air turbulence, let me explain.</p>
<h2>What is air turbulence?</h2>
<p>Air turbulence is when the air starts to flow in a chaotic or random way. </p>
<p>At high altitudes the wind usually moves in a smooth, horizontal current called “laminar flow”. This provides ideal conditions for steady flight.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A diagram showing laminar flow and turbulent flow." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502063/original/file-20221220-20-4bvy8f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502063/original/file-20221220-20-4bvy8f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502063/original/file-20221220-20-4bvy8f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502063/original/file-20221220-20-4bvy8f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502063/original/file-20221220-20-4bvy8f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502063/original/file-20221220-20-4bvy8f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502063/original/file-20221220-20-4bvy8f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In ‘laminar flow’, air moves smoothly in one direction. When turbulence begins, it goes every which way.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Turbulence occurs when something disrupts this smooth flow, and the air starts to move up and down as well as horizontally. When this happens, conditions can change from moment to moment and place to place.</p>
<p>You can think of normal flying conditions as the glassy surface of the ocean on a still day. But when a wind comes up, things get choppy, or waves form and break – that’s turbulence.</p>
<h2>What causes air turbulence?</h2>
<p>The kind of turbulence that affects commercial passenger flights has three main causes.</p>
<p>The first is thunderstorms. Inside a thunderstorm, there is strong up-and-down air movement, which makes a lot of turbulence that can spread out to the surrounding region. Thunderstorms can also create “atmospheric waves”, which travel through the surrounding air and eventually break, causing turbulence. </p>
<p>Fortunately, pilots can usually see thunderstorms ahead (either with the naked eye or on radar) and will make efforts to go around them.</p>
<p>The other common causes of turbulence create what’s typically called “clear-air turbulence”. It comes out of air that looks perfectly clear, with no clouds, so it’s harder to dodge.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A diagram showing mountains, air currents and turbulence." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502065/original/file-20221220-16-45aimu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502065/original/file-20221220-16-45aimu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502065/original/file-20221220-16-45aimu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502065/original/file-20221220-16-45aimu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502065/original/file-20221220-16-45aimu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502065/original/file-20221220-16-45aimu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502065/original/file-20221220-16-45aimu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jet streams and mountains are common causes of clear-air turbulence.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The second cause of turbulence is jet streams. These are high-speed winds in the upper atmosphere, at the kind of altitudes where passenger jets fly. </p>
<p>While air inside the jet stream moves quite smoothly, there is often turbulence near the top and bottom of the stream. That’s because there is a big difference in air speed (called “wind shear”) between the jet stream and the air outside it. High levels of wind shear create turbulence.</p>
<p>The third thing that makes turbulence is mountains. As air flows over a mountain range, it creates another kind of wave – called, of course, a “mountain wave” – that disrupts air flow and can create turbulence.</p>
<h2>Can air turbulence be avoided?</h2>
<p>Pilots do their best to avoid air turbulence – and they’re pretty good at it!</p>
<p>As mentioned, thunderstorms are the easiest to fly around. For clear-air turbulence, things are a little trickier.</p>
<p>When pilots encounter turbulence, they will change altitude to try to avoid it. They also report the turbulence to air traffic controllers, who pass the information on to other flights in the area so they can try to avoid it. </p>
<p>Weather forecasting centres also provide turbulence forecasts. Based on their models of what’s happening in the atmosphere, they can predict where and when clear-air turbulence is likely to occur.</p>
<h2>Will climate change make turbulence worse?</h2>
<p>As the globe warms and the climate changes in coming decades, we think air turbulence will also be affected.</p>
<p>One reason is that the jet streams which can cause turbulence are shifting and may become more intense. As Earth’s tropical climate zones spread away from the equator, the jet streams are moving with them.</p>
<p>This is likely to increase turbulence on at least some flight routes. Some studies also <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1465-z">suggest</a> the wind shear around jet streams has become more intense.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/could-climate-change-have-played-a-role-in-the-airasia-crash-36002">Could climate change have played a role in the AirAsia crash?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Another reason is that the most severe thunderstorms are also likely to become more intense, partly because a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapour. This too is likely to generate more intense turbulence.</p>
<p>These predictions are largely based on climate models, because it is difficult to collect the data needed to identify trends in air turbulence. These data largely come from reports by aircraft, the quality and extent of which are changing over time. These measurements are quite different from the long-term, methodically gathered data usually used to detect trends in the weather and climate.</p>
<h2>How dangerous is air turbulence?</h2>
<p>Around the globe, air turbulence causes hundreds of injuries each year among passengers and flight attendants on commercial aircraft. But, given the hundreds of millions of people who fly each year, those are pretty good odds.</p>
<p>Turbulence is usually short-lived. What’s more, modern aircraft are engineered to comfortably withstand all but the most extreme air turbulence. </p>
<p>And among people who are injured, the great majority are those who aren’t strapped in. So if you’re concerned, the easiest way to protect yourself is to wear your seat belt. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-the-real-reason-to-turn-on-aeroplane-mode-when-you-fly-188585">Here's the real reason to turn on aeroplane mode when you fly</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196872/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Todd Lane receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>
When something disrupts the smooth, laminar flow of high-altitude winds, your flight might get a little bumpy.
Todd Lane, Professor, School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, The University of Melbourne
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/186947
2022-09-01T17:42:58Z
2022-09-01T17:42:58Z
Why the aviation industry must look beyond carbon to get serious about climate change
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480345/original/file-20220822-70835-8lcycw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=45%2C45%2C5027%2C3339&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Flying is responsible for around 5% of human-induced climate change</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sunset-view-airplane-on-airport-runway-1889546404">Wichudapa/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Commercial aviation has become a cornerstone of our economy and society. It allows us to rapidly transport goods and people across the globe, facilitates <a href="https://www.iata.org/en/programs/cargo/">over a third</a> of all global trade by value, and supports <a href="https://aviationbenefits.org/economic-growth/supporting-employment/">87.7 million</a> jobs worldwide. However, the 80-tonne flying machines we see hurtling through our skies at near supersonic speeds also carry some serious environmental baggage.</p>
<hr>
<iframe id="noa-web-audio-player" style="border: none" src="https://embed-player.newsoveraudio.com/v4?key=x84olp&id=https://theconversation.com/why-the-aviation-industry-must-look-beyond-carbon-to-get-serious-about-climate-change-186947&bgColor=F5F5F5&color=D8352A&playColor=D8352A" width="100%" height="110px"></iframe>
<p><em>You can listen to more articles from The Conversation, narrated by Noa, <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/audio-narrated-99682">here</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>My team’s <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/9/7/355">recent review paper</a> highlights some promising solutions the aviation industry could put in place now to reduce the harm flying does to our planet. Simply changing the routes we fly could hold the key to drastic reductions in climate impact.</p>
<p>Modern aeroplanes burn kerosene to generate the forward propulsion needed to overcome drag and produce lift. Kerosene is a fossil fuel with excellent energy density, providing lots of energy per kilogram burnt. But when it is burnt, harmful chemicals are released: mainly carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrogen oxides (NOₓ), water vapour and particulate matter (tiny particles of soot, dirt and liquids).</p>
<p>Aviation is widely known for its carbon footprint, with the industry contributing 2.5% to the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions-from-aviation">global CO₂ burden</a>. While some may argue that this pales in comparison with other sectors, carbon is only responsible for a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231020305689?via%3Dihub">third</a> of aviation’s full climate impact. Non-CO₂ emissions (mainly NOₓ and ice trails made from aircraft water vapour) make up the remaining two-thirds.</p>
<p>Taking all aircraft emissions into account, flying is responsible for around 5% of human-induced climate change. Given that <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378020307779?via%3Dihub">89%</a> of the population has never flown, passenger demand is <a href="https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2016-10-18-02/">doubling</a> every 20 years, and other sectors are decarbonising much faster, this number is predicted to skyrocket. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475492/original/file-20220721-14624-salr5i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475492/original/file-20220721-14624-salr5i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=204&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475492/original/file-20220721-14624-salr5i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=204&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475492/original/file-20220721-14624-salr5i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=204&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475492/original/file-20220721-14624-salr5i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=256&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475492/original/file-20220721-14624-salr5i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=256&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475492/original/file-20220721-14624-salr5i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=256&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Aircraft contrails don’t last long but have a huge impact.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Daniel Ciucci/Unsplash</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>It’s not just carbon</h2>
<p>Aircraft spend most of their time flying at cruise altitude (33,000 to 42,000 ft) where the air is thin, to minimise drag. </p>
<p>At these altitudes, aircraft NOₓ reacts with chemicals in the atmosphere to produce ozone and destroy methane, two very potent greenhouse gases. This aviation-induced ozone is not to be confused with the natural ozone layer, which occurs much higher up and protects the Earth from harmful UV rays. Unfortunately, aircraft NOₓ emissions cause more warming due to ozone production than they do cooling due to methane reduction. This leads to a net warming effect that makes up 16% of aviation’s total climate impact. </p>
<p>Also, when temperatures dip below -40°C and the air is humid, aircraft water vapour condenses on particles in the exhaust and freezes. This forms an ice cloud known as a contrail. Contrails may be made of ice, but they warm the climate as they trap heat emitted from the Earth’s surface. Despite only lasting a few hours, contrails are responsible for 51% of the aviation industry’s climate warming. This means they warm the planet more than <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1068">all aircraft carbon emissions</a> that have accumulated since the dawn of powered flight.</p>
<p>Unlike carbon, non-CO₂ emissions cause warming through interactions with the surrounding air. Their climate impact changes depending on atmospheric conditions at the time and location of release. </p>
<h2>Cutting non-CO₂ climate impact</h2>
<p>Two of the most promising short-term options are climate-optimal routing and formation flight.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475158/original/file-20220720-23-skuv13.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475158/original/file-20220720-23-skuv13.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=198&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475158/original/file-20220720-23-skuv13.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=198&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475158/original/file-20220720-23-skuv13.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=198&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475158/original/file-20220720-23-skuv13.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=249&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475158/original/file-20220720-23-skuv13.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=249&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475158/original/file-20220720-23-skuv13.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=249&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Left: Climate optimal routing. Right: Formation flight concept.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Climate-optimal routing involves re-routing aircraft to avoid regions of the atmosphere that are particularly climate-sensitive – for example, where particularly humid air causes long-lived and damaging contrails to form. <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/8/2/36">Research shows</a> that for a small increase in flight distance (usually no more than 1-2% of the journey), the net climate impact of a flight can be reduced by around 20%. </p>
<p>Flight operators can also reduce the impact of their aircraft by flying in formation, with one aircraft flying 1-2 km behind the other. The follower aircraft “surfs” the lead aircraft’s wake, leading to a 5% reduction in both CO₂ and other harmful emissions. </p>
<p>But flying in formation can reduce non-CO₂ warming too. When aircraft exhaust plumes overlap, the emissions within them accumulate. When NOₓ reaches a certain concentration, the rate of ozone production decreases and the warming effect slows. </p>
<p>And when contrails form, they grow by absorbing the surrounding water vapour. In formation flight, the aircraft’s contrails compete for water vapour, making them smaller. Summing all three reductions, formation flight could slash climate impact by up to <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/7/12/172">24%</a>. </p>
<h2>Decarbonising aviation will take time</h2>
<p>The aviation industry has fixated on tackling carbon emissions. However, current plans for the industry to reach <a href="https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2021-releases/2021-10-04-03/">net zero by 2050</a> rely on an ambitious <a href="https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/pressroom/fact-sheets/fact-sheet---alternative-fuels/">3,000-4,000 times increase</a> in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production, <a href="https://www.transportenvironment.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/2021_03_Briefing_Corsia_EU_assessement_2021.pdf">problematic</a> carbon offsetting schemes, and the introduction of hydrogen- and electric-powered aircraft. All of these could take several decades to make a difference, so it’s crucial the industry cuts its environmental footprint in the meantime.</p>
<p>Climate-optimal routing and formation flight are two key examples of how we could make change happen faster, compared with a purely carbon-focused approach. But there is currently no political or financial incentive to change tack. It is time governments and the aviation industry start listening to the science, and take aircraft non-CO₂ emissions seriously.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186947/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kieran Tait is a PhD researcher at the University of Bristol. He receives funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC). </span></em></p>
Aviation has long been shamed for its carbon footprint. But cutting non-CO2 emissions may hold the key to rapid change.
Kieran Tait, PhD Candidate in Aerospace Engineering, University of Bristol
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/179140
2022-03-15T15:05:15Z
2022-03-15T15:05:15Z
Boeing: why the Ukraine crisis could help it become the world’s number one aircraft maker again
<p>Boeing has faced a lot of bad press in recent years, and deservedly so. After <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/737-max-crashes-killed-346-were-horrific-culmination-failures-boeing-n1240192">two Boeing 737 Max</a> crashes killed 346 people, the American aerospace giant <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2046147X211001350">was criticised</a> for its “slow” and “defensive” handling of the crisis, and <a href="https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boeing-737-max-cleared-to-fly-again-after-20-month-grounding/141166.article">nearly 400 planes</a> were grounded for 20 months following a temporary ban by the US authorities. The company has also been <a href="https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2020/09/15/boeing-consolidation-787-assembly-study-everett.html">plagued with problems</a> at its South Carolina plant, which makes 787 Dreamliners. </p>
<p>However, Boeing has got a lot right too – and this is becoming apparent as events in Ukraine unfold.</p>
<p>New aircraft rely heavily on lightweight materials, including titanium. Titanium has other key properties too, including its high strength and heat resistance, making it ideal for use in the body of the plane (the airframe), the parts that hold the structure together (the fastening elements), and the wheels and undercarriage (the landing gear). Unfortunately, titanium is scarce – and <a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2022/mcs2022-titanium.pdf">16% of its supply</a> comes from Russia and Ukraine.</p>
<p>Following the 2014 Crimean crisis, <a href="https://www.bizjournals.com/wichita/news/2014/08/08/boeing-united-technologies-stocking-up-on-russian.html">Boeing began</a> stockpiling titanium and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/boeing-confident-working-through-any-disruption-titanium-supplies-exec-2022-02-14/">started diversifying</a> its arrangements for sourcing metals. In a statement on March 7, the company sought to reassure its stakeholders about its position with regards to raw materials: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Our inventory and diversity of titanium sources provide sufficient supply for airplane production, and we will continue to take the right steps to ensure long-term continuity.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Interestingly, Boeing <a href="https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/world/story/ukraine-crisis-boeing-stops-purchase-of-titanium-from-russia-325070-2022-03-07#:%7E:text=US%20planemaker%20Boeing%20Co%20said,continuity%2C%22%20the%20company%20added.">suspended buying titanium</a> from Russia earlier in March, even though the metal is not yet covered by US sanctions. Airbus <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/aerospace-firms-brace-turbulence-russian-titanium-supplies-2022-01-28/">may also</a> have been stockpiling titanium since Crimea, but <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/boeing-suspends-part-its-business-russia-wsj-2022-03-07/">it continues</a> to rely on Russia for its supply, citing its compliance with EU sanctions. </p>
<p>Thanks to its diversification, Boeing <a href="https://mentourpilot.com/boeing-stops-buying-russian-titanium-airbus-continues/">now relies</a> on Russia for about 35% of its supply, whereas different sources put Airbus somewhere between 50% and 65%. Incidentally, smaller manufacturers are even more reliant: Brazilian aircraft maker Embraer relies on Russia for 100% of its supply.</p>
<p>Both Boeing and Airbus have taken a hit in the stock market since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, because of the prospect of decreased demand for aircraft in affected markets and potential disruption to financing arrangements. Boeing has performed marginally better at the time of writing, having generally underperformed Airbus in recent years. And should sanctions be placed on Russian titanium, Airbus and other manufacturers would find themselves in a difficult (perhaps impossible) position. For Boeing, the threat is much less significant.</p>
<p><strong>Boeing vs Airbus</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451947/original/file-20220314-24-1xj3cyw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing Boeing and Airbus stock performances compared to the S&P 500" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451947/original/file-20220314-24-1xj3cyw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451947/original/file-20220314-24-1xj3cyw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451947/original/file-20220314-24-1xj3cyw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451947/original/file-20220314-24-1xj3cyw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451947/original/file-20220314-24-1xj3cyw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451947/original/file-20220314-24-1xj3cyw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451947/original/file-20220314-24-1xj3cyw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cyan = S&P 500; blue = Boeing; orange = Airbus.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Trading View</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The 747-8 – a plane that failed well</h2>
<p>The Boeing 747 might be about the most successful plane of all time, but the 747-8, launched in 2005, has been described as <a href="https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/klm-retires-its-last-two-boeing-747/">a “flop”</a> for the company. Boeing’s final punt in the jumbo era sold <a href="https://modernairliners.com/airbus-a380/airbus-a380-orders-and-deliveries/#content">138 planes</a>, compared to 249 by main rival, the Airbus A380. </p>
<p>Yet Airbus’ success over the 747-8 was pyrrhic. The fact that Boeing developed the 747-8 lured Airbus into mobilising huge resources into the A380, having not previously had the infrastructure to build such a vehicle. Boeing, which obviously did not have this problem, was able to spend elsewhere. The 747-8 programme <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/3293125-the-boeing-747minus-8-and-airbus-a380-2-very-large-aircraft-2-different-stories">cost US$4 billion</a> (£3 billion) after adjusting for inflation, while the A380 cost <a href="https://simpleflying.com/airbus-a380-cost/">six or seven times</a> more. </p>
<p>The problem for Airbus was that the market pivoted from jumbos towards mid-sized widebody aircraft like the Boeing 787 Dreamliner. The industry has for years been <a href="https://simpleflying.com/hub-and-spoke-vs-point-to-point/">shifting towards</a> “point-to-point” flying between two places, as opposed to via a hub like London Heathrow, and COVID accelerated this trend. This favours the operational agility of mid-size aircraft. Consequently, many airlines including Air France, KLM and Virgin Atlantic have prematurely retired their A380 and 747 fleets. Production of A380s was wrapped up in 2021 after Emirates cancelled its final orders, while Boeing 747 production ceases this year. </p>
<p>Launched in 2004, the Dreamliner boasts unprecedented <a href="https://simpleflying.com/airbus-a330neo-vs-boeing-787-9-which-is-best/">fuel efficiency</a> and <a href="https://simpleflying.com/boeing-787-dimmable-windows-why/">comfort</a>. It soon became the fastest selling widebody aircraft of all time. Airbus put everything into the A380 – a plane for which <a href="https://simpleflying.com/boeing-a380-competitor/">Boeing knew</a> there was little demand. </p>
<p>Even when Airbus did get the A330neo to market to compete with the Dreamliner in 2014, its development was a modified version of a pre-existing airframe, so it cannot match the 787 in terms of fuel efficiency and comfort. In any case, the 787 had already cemented itself as the preferred plane in its market. Boeing <a href="https://modernairliners.com/boeing-787-dreamliner/boeing-787-dreamliner-deliveries/#content">has delivered</a> 1,006 of them to customers and has orders for about 900 more, whereas the A330neo has done 67 deliveries and a total of 348 orders. </p>
<p>Airbus has been more successful with its A350, which is a larger widebody aircraft more suited to long haul that began passenger flights in 2015. Boeing’s competition, the 777X, is due for its first delivery in 2023 (having been delayed by the problems with the 737 Max). <a href="https://modernairliners.com/boeing-787-dreamliner/boeing-787-dreamliner-deliveries/#content">In terms of orders</a>, the A350 is ahead, but the 777X has been on sale for less time and is picking up orders. Boeing is <a href="https://www.aviacionline.com/2022/01/boeing-prepares-new-version-of-787-dreamliner-family/">also launching</a> a larger version of the Dreamliner to compete with the A350, so there is the potential for the A350 to be squeezed from both sides. </p>
<h2>Where next</h2>
<p>The question is whether Boeing can repeat its success with the Dreamliner in other segments of the market. We eagerly await news on its new mid-sized aircraft for medium-haul flights (currently referred to as the 797), which has also been delayed by the 737 Max problems. Designed to replace the narrowbody 757 and compete with the Airbus A321XLR, which is due to enter service in 2023, this aircraft may be critical to Boeing’s success. </p>
<p>In the narrowbody market, which is for shorter flights, the Airbus A320 family <a href="https://modernairliners.com/boeing-787-dreamliner/boeing-787-dreamliner-deliveries/#content">recently inched ahead</a> of Boeing’s 737 in terms of sales, though the 737 retains the lead for aircraft delivered. It is uncertain how potential supply chain issues may disrupt this balance. The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine has the potential to be hard, particularly on Airbus.</p>
<p>The future of aircraft manufacturing is uncertain. But by thinking forwards, in terms of sourcing arrangements and travel demand, Boeing has been shrewd. So long as Boeing learns lessons from its recent past, it may finally be back in the ascendant.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179140/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph Mellors does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
For years it has lagged Airbus, but that might be coming to an end.
Joseph Mellors, Associate lecturer, Northumbria University, Newcastle
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/172402
2022-01-03T19:13:04Z
2022-01-03T19:13:04Z
Curious Kids: how exactly does a spaceship get into space?
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436873/original/file-20211210-188518-18vam90.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C80%2C5991%2C3961&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p><strong>How exactly does a spaceship get into space? – Mathilde, age 5, Sydney</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/curious-kids-36782"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291898/original/file-20190911-190031-enlxbk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=90&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="100%"></a></p>
<p>Hello Mathilde, thanks for this great question! It isn’t easy to get to space, and there are a few steps to it. First, let’s think about where “space” itself actually begins.</p>
<p>Well, some time ago, a number of experts decided on one point above us as being the point where “space” begins. They marked it with an invisible line called the <a href="https://www.fai.org/page/icare-boundary">Kármán line</a>. </p>
<p>This line goes all around the Earth and is about 100km above us. To help you understand how high that is, a normal aircraft flies only about 10km above the ground.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436874/original/file-20211210-21-13ny8h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436874/original/file-20211210-21-13ny8h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436874/original/file-20211210-21-13ny8h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436874/original/file-20211210-21-13ny8h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436874/original/file-20211210-21-13ny8h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436874/original/file-20211210-21-13ny8h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436874/original/file-20211210-21-13ny8h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436874/original/file-20211210-21-13ny8h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Kármán line is very high above us, and wraps all around the Earth.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Could we take a plane to space?</h2>
<p>There are many reasons we can’t just use an aircraft to get into space. A major one is that the higher up we go, the less air there is – or specifically the less “oxygen” there is in the air. </p>
<p>The engine is what helps the aircraft fly. And just like car engines, aircraft engines need oxygen to work. Thankfully, the air we breathe is made up of 21% oxygen (although you can’t see it)!</p>
<p>Aircraft suck air in at the front, using big fans on either side. They then mix this air with jet fuel, creating a mixture of fuel and oxygen which is then burned, making the air hotter. The hot air is then shot out the back at a very high speed – pushing the aircraft forward. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437673/original/file-20211214-25-6em0lx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Aircraft viewed from front with two large fans on each side" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437673/original/file-20211214-25-6em0lx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437673/original/file-20211214-25-6em0lx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437673/original/file-20211214-25-6em0lx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437673/original/file-20211214-25-6em0lx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437673/original/file-20211214-25-6em0lx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437673/original/file-20211214-25-6em0lx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437673/original/file-20211214-25-6em0lx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The two large fans on the sides of an aircraft help suck in air, which has oxygen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But an aircraft trying to fly too close to space, where there isn’t enough oxygen, would be like a person trying to breathe in a room with no air in it. </p>
<p>This is why we need rockets to get to space. The big difference between rocket engines and jet engines used in aircraft is rocket engines do not need to get oxygen from the air. Instead, they carry their own oxygen with them.</p>
<p>In some ways this is bad, since rocket engines have to carry something that an aircraft can easily get from all around it. That means there’s less room on a rocket for other cargo, such as passengers and luggage.</p>
<p>But on the bright side, being able to take oxygen along for the journey means rockets can work in space, much higher up than where most aircraft fly. </p>
<h2>How does a rocket engine work?</h2>
<p>Similar to an aircraft’s jet engine, rocket engines work by shooting very hot gas out from the back of the rocket. As the gas is pushed backwards, the rocket is pushed forward. </p>
<p>This is an example of a rule in science called the Third Law of Motion, first discovered by a famous scientist named Isaac Newton. This law says that every action has an equal and opposite reaction.</p>
<p>You can even make a very basic “rocket” at home with some help from an adult! If you get a balloon, blow it up, and let it go without tying off the end, the air inside will shoot out and send it flying around the room – just like a very badly controlled rocket! </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-can-people-live-in-space-120334">Curious Kids: can people live in space?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172402/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris James does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
In some ways, a space rocket and a passenger aircraft fly much the same. But there is one big reason we can’t just take an aircraft into space.
Chris James, ARC DECRA Fellow, Centre for Hypersonics, School of Mechanical and Mining Engineering, The University of Queensland
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/150688
2020-11-27T18:19:38Z
2020-11-27T18:19:38Z
Boeing 737 Max: why was it grounded, what has been fixed and is it enough?
<p>The Boeing 737 Max began flying commercially in May 2017 but has been grounded for over a year and a half following two crashes within five months. On October 29 2018, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-46014463">Lion Air Flight 610</a> took off from Jakarta. It quickly experienced problems in maintaining altitude, entered into an uncontrollable dive and crashed into the Java Sea about 13 minutes after takeoff. Then on March 10 2019, <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/04/what-passengers-experienced-on-the-ethiopian-airlines-flight.html">Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302</a> from Nairobi suffered similar problems, crashing into the desert around six minutes after leaving the runway.</p>
<p>In total, 346 people lost their lives. After the second crash, US regulator the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) decided to ground all 737 Max planes, of which around 350 had been delivered at the time, while they investigated the causes of the accidents.</p>
<p>Now, 20 months later, the FAA <a href="http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2020/Return-of-the-Boeing-737-MAX-to-service-OPS-DIS-11/default.aspx#:%7E:text=Today%2C%20the%20Federal%20Aviation%20Administration,its%20grounding%20in%20March%202019.&text=This%20includes%20investing%20in%20extensive,it%20returns%20to%20commercial%20use">has announced</a> that it is rescinding this order and has set out steps for the return of the aircraft to commercial service. Brazil has responded quickly, <a href="https://simpleflying.com/brazil-boeing-737-max-recertification/amp/">also approving</a> the 737 Max. So, what went wrong – and can we be confident that it has been fixed?</p>
<p>The causes of the two accidents were complex, but link mainly to the 737’s <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/times-watchdog/the-inside-story-of-mcas-how-boeings-737-max-system-gained-power-and-lost-safeguards/">manoeuvring characteristics augmentation system</a> (MCAS), which was introduced to the 737 Max to manage changes in behaviour created by the plane having much larger engines than its predecessors.</p>
<p>There are some important points about the MCAS which we must consider when reviewing the “fixes”. The MCAS prevented stall (a sudden loss of lift due to the angle of the wing) by “pushing” the nose down. Stall is indicated through an angle of attack (AoA) sensor – the 737 Max is fitted with two, but MCAS only used one. If that AoA sensor failed, then the MCAS could <a href="https://www.york.ac.uk/assuring-autonomy/news/blog/accidental-autonomy/">activate when it shouldn’t</a>, unnecessarily pushing the nose down. The design meant that there was no automatic switch to the other AoA sensor, and MCAS kept working with the erroneous sensor values. This is what happened in both crashes.</p>
<p>The design of the MCAS meant that it was repeatedly activated if it determined that there was a risk of a stall. This meant that the nose was continually pushed down, making it hard for pilots to keep altitude or climb. The system was also hard to override. In both cases, the flight crews were unable to override the MCAS, although other crews had successfully managed to do so in similar situation, and this contributed to the two accidents.</p>
<h2>The fixes</h2>
<p>Have these things been fixed? The FAA has published an <a href="https://www.faa.gov/foia/electronic_reading_room/boeing_reading_room/media/737_RTS_Summary.pdf">extensive summary</a> explaining its decision. The MCAS software has been modified and now uses both AoA sensors, not one. The MCAS also now only activates once, rather than multiple times, when a potential stall is signalled by both the AoA sensors. Pilots are provided with an “AoA disagree warning” which indicates that there might be an erroneous activation of MCAS. This warning was not standard equipment at the time of the two accidents – it had to be purchased by airlines as an option. </p>
<p>Importantly, pilots will now be trained on the operation of the MCAS and management of its problems. Pilots claimed that initially they were <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48281282">not even told</a> that MCAS existed. This training will have to be approved by the FAA.</p>
<p>So, is all well? Probably. As the 737 Max accidents put Boeing and the FAA under such intense scrutiny, it is likely that the design and safety activities have been carried out and checked to the maximum extent possible. There is no such thing as perfection in such complex engineering processes, but it is clear that this has been an extremely intensive effort and that Boeing found and corrected a few other potential safety problems that were unrelated to the accidents. </p>
<p>Of course, we are not there yet. The more than 300 aircraft already delivered have to be modified, and the 450-or-so built but not delivered also need to be updated and checked by the FAA. Then the pilots need to be trained. And the airlines need passengers – but will they get them? That is an issue of trust.</p>
<h2>Safety culture and trust</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ep7oLR1xCW0">US Congressional Enquiry</a> was scathing about the culture at both Boeing and the FAA and the difficulty of the FAA in overseeing Boeing’s work. <a href="https://fisher.osu.edu/blogs/leadreadtoday/blog/a-textbook-case-for-disaster-psychological-safety-and-the-737-max">Some commentators</a> have also referred to an absence of psychological safety: “The assurance that one can speak up, offer ideas, point out problems, or deliver bad news without fear of retribution.” We have evidence that the engineering problems have been fixed, but safety culture is more nebulous and slow to change. </p>
<p>How would we know if trust has been restored? There are several possible indicators. </p>
<p>Due to the effects of COVID-19, airlines are running a reduced flight schedule, so they may not need to use the 737 Max. If they choose not to do so, despite its reduced operating costs compared to earlier 737 models, that will be telling. Certainly, all eyes will be on the first airline to return the aircraft to the skies. </p>
<p>Some US airlines <a href="https://simpleflying.com/how-to-tell-if-youre-flying-on-the-boeing-737-max/">have said</a> they will advise people which model of aircraft they will be flying. If passengers opt to avoid the 737 Max, that will speak volumes about public trust and confidence. </p>
<p>The FAA <a href="https://www.faa.gov/news/updates/?newsId=93206">press release</a> also says there has been an “unprecedented level of collaborative and independent reviews by aviation authorities around the world”. But if the international authorities ask for further checks or delay the reintroduction of the aircraft in their jurisdictions, that will be particularly significant as it reflects the view of the FAA’s professional peers. Brazil’s rapid response is a positive sign for this international engagement.</p>
<p>Hopefully, the first few years will prove uneventful and trust can be rebuilt. But only time will tell.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150688/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John McDermid receives, or has received, funding from government research agencies, industry including in the aerospace sector and the Lloyd's Register Foundation, relevant to the safety of aircraft and autonomous systems. He has not received any funding directly relevant to the Boeing 737 Max.</span></em></p>
Almost two years after crashing twice within five months and being pulled out of service, the Boeing 737 Max’s return to the skies has now been approved.
John McDermid, Director, Assuring Autonomy International Programme, University of York
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/147157
2020-10-01T12:24:16Z
2020-10-01T12:24:16Z
The 737 MAX is ready to fly again, but plane certification still needs to be fixed – here’s how
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360638/original/file-20200929-22-12u1blg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3594%2C2392&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Boeing 737 MAX is expected to take to the skies again following a review of the MCAS system which was responsible for two crashes in 2019.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/boeing-737-max-jet-comes-in-for-a-landing-following-a-news-photo/1223465937">Jason Redmond / Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>After being grounded in March 2019 following two fatal crashes, the Boeing 737 MAX is expected to be certified by the Federal Aviation Administration to fly again later this fall. Investigations pointed to a problem with the aircraft’s Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System, or MCAS. This <a href="https://theconversation.com/automated-control-system-caused-ethiopia-crash-flight-data-suggests-113688">automated control system</a> was designed to stabilize the plane and compensate for the more powerful engines used on the 737 MAX compared to previous versions.</em> </p>
<p><em>The <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/internal-faa-review-saw-high-risk-of-737-max-crashes-11576069202?mod=searchresults&page=2&pos=2">FAA’s certification</a> of the plane has <a href="https://komonews.com/news/nation-world/lawmakers-upset-over-boeing-max-approval-propose-new-rules">come under fire</a> because manufacturers can speed up the process by having only enhancements to a preapproved aircraft reviewed and certified. Ronnie R. Gipson Jr., an expert in aviation law and visiting professor at the University of Memphis Cecil C. Humphreys School of Law, whose work was cited in the House Committee on transportation and infrastructure’s report on this issue, explains what happened and ways to improve these safety regulations.</em></p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/N_7s01_gDk4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<h2>What are the criticisms of the FAA certification process stemming from the 737 MAX crashes?</h2>
<p>The process for the certification of a transport category aircraft is a very involved and costly process. The aircraft manufacturers that go down this path have to be committed to spending hundreds of millions of dollars. It starts with an initial design, and the aircraft that is produced is then subjected to dynamic flight testing for compliance with all of the Federal Aviation Administration regulations. Once the airplane satisfies all those requirements, the aircraft is given an original type certificate by the FAA. The aircraft manufacturer is then allowed to produce aircraft and sell them.</p>
<p>As time goes on, technology advances and the manufacturer identifies ways to improve on that original design. So the manufacturer goes back to the FAA and says, “We want to take this initial design that we have and amend it because we made some changes.” At this point, the aircraft manufacturer files what’s called an amended type certificate application for a derivative aircraft from the baseline aircraft. For example, the original type certificate for the first 737 design was submitted to the FAA in 1967. That original design has had multiple derivative aircraft approved by the FAA, with the 737 MAX being the 13th version. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="a timeline showing the certification approval dates and models of the original 737 design and its derivatives." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360883/original/file-20200930-24-h3w89e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360883/original/file-20200930-24-h3w89e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=191&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360883/original/file-20200930-24-h3w89e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=191&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360883/original/file-20200930-24-h3w89e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=191&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360883/original/file-20200930-24-h3w89e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360883/original/file-20200930-24-h3w89e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360883/original/file-20200930-24-h3w89e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Certification timeline of the Boeing 737 series of aircraft.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.oig.dot.gov/sites/default/files/FAA%20Oversight%20of%20Boeing%20737%20MAX%20Certification%20Timeline%20Final%20Report.pdf">US Department of Transportation, Office of Inspector General</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the amended type certification process, the regulatory authority focuses only on what’s changed. Another thing to keep in mind is that the FAA just doesn’t have the manpower to oversee all the tests that go with an amended type certificate approval. Therefore, the FAA reviews most of the critical changes related to safety and delegates the noncritical changes for review to the manufacturers – in this case to <a href="https://www.faa.gov/news/media/attachments/Final_JATR_Submittal_to_FAA_Oct_2019.pdf">a body in Boeing</a> which consists essentially of Boeing employees. </p>
<p>And that’s what happened here. MCAS wasn’t necessarily presented as a change in the design impacting control in flight. As a result, the MCAS was not a priority for the FAA in the amended certificate approval process. The MCAS capabilities and what it was supposed to control <a href="https://www.oig.dot.gov/sites/default/files/FAA%20Oversight%20of%20Boeing%20737%20MAX%20Certification%20Timeline%20Final%20Report.pdf">were never fully revealed</a>. That’s really where the problem started. It was with the narrative that was being presented to the FAA, and <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/faas-handling-of-boeing-737-max-issues-faulted-in-transportation-department-review-11593619195?mod=searchresults&page=2&pos=12">the lack of oversight in the amended type certificate process</a>. The result was that the MCAS system that was initially presented to the FAA at the beginning of the amended type certificate process was not the same system that ended up in the aircraft.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A diagram showing how the MCAS system forces the nose of the aircraft downwards." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360881/original/file-20200930-16-11w9416.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360881/original/file-20200930-16-11w9416.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360881/original/file-20200930-16-11w9416.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360881/original/file-20200930-16-11w9416.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360881/original/file-20200930-16-11w9416.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360881/original/file-20200930-16-11w9416.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360881/original/file-20200930-16-11w9416.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A diagram showing how the MCAS system forces the nose of the aircraft downwards.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.oig.dot.gov/sites/default/files/FAA%20Oversight%20of%20Boeing%20737%20MAX%20Certification%20Timeline%20Final%20Report.pdf">US Department of Transportation, Office of Inspector General</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How will the recent recertification for the 737 MAX ensure that the model is now safe?</h2>
<p>The FAA has had to backtrack and give the MCAS system the intense level of scrutiny that it deserved. The FAA has required the manufacturer to go back and make significant adjustments to the software, in addition to changes to the operator’s manual, which is what the pilots would see.</p>
<h2>How can the certification process be improved?</h2>
<p>I see two paths to take. First, for a transport category aircraft, regulations are changed so that the manufacturer can receive amended type certificates for only 20 years after the original type certificate has been issued by the FAA.</p>
<p>Here’s how that would work: An aircraft manufacturer designs an aircraft for certification in the transport category and applies for the original type certificate in 2020. Once the original type certification is awarded in, say, 2025, then the manufacturer should have 20 years. That means that the manufacturer would have until the year 2045 to seek an amendment to that original type certificate. Beginning in 2046, if the aircraft manufacturer wants to make subsequent design changes, they have to start over and get a new original type certificate.</p>
<p>The second component to resolving this problem would be to step in and review what areas the FAA can delegate oversight authority for system changes in an amended aircraft certification application review.</p>
<h2>What are the obstacles to making these changes?</h2>
<p>One would be money. The FAA has a budget, and these are very costly measures because the FAA will need more engineers and administrators. And for that to happen, Congress has to be prepared to spend the money to make that happen by increasing the FAA’s budget.</p>
<p>There’s also going to be a cost to the industry. Implementing the proposal of a 20-year cap on the validity of that original type certificate is going to impose a greater financial cost on the aircraft manufacturers of transport category aircraft. They’re not going to have as much time to get a return on their investment for the aircraft that they produce. So the aircraft are going to end up costing more, which means the airlines are going to end up paying more for those planes. And that cost is going to trickle down to the flying public in those seats.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147157/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ronnie R. Gipson Jr. provides policy advice to the Experimental Aircraft Association as a member of this organization's Legal Advisory Council. </span></em></p>
The Boeing 737 MAX, which has been grounded since 2019 following two fatal crashes, is expected to be cleared to fly again. An aviation law expert proposes a way to improve the certification process.
Ronnie R. Gipson Jr., Visiting Assistant Professor of Law, University of Memphis
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/142971
2020-08-04T13:07:21Z
2020-08-04T13:07:21Z
How COVID-19 could impact travel for years to come
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350443/original/file-20200730-15-1rdamty.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3594%2C1934&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A traveller walks between empty check-in kiosks at Toronto's Pearson International Airport in June 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In late 2019, <a href="https://www.iata.org/en/about/">the International Air Transport Association (IATA)</a> published its <a href="https://www.iata.org/contentassets/36695cd211574052b3820044111b56de/airline-industry-economic-performance-dec19-report.pdf">“Economic Performance of the Airline Industry</a>” report. It contained a 2020 forecast of 4.1 per cent growth in global air traffic demand and net post-tax profits for North American airlines of US$16.5 billion.</p>
<p><a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/consumer-business/us-consumer-2019-us-travel-and-hospitality-outlook.pdf">Travel industry consulting firms</a> predicted the continuing pattern of travel growth across all of the major components of travel including hotels, cruises and surface travel as well as air. The forecast for travel was sunny, with few clouds on the horizon.</p>
<p>Fast forward to the summer of 2020, and the IATA is forecasting the worst financial performance in the history of commercial aviation, <a href="https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/speeches/2020-06-24-01/">predicting a global loss of US$84 billion</a>. And the aerospace industry supporting airlines with equipment parts and services pronounced that 2020 is <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52468882">the gravest crisis the industry has ever known.</a> </p>
<h2>Permanent changes?</h2>
<p>Let’s review the lessons being learned by the travel industry during the COVID-19 pandemic and how travel might be different as the world deals with the aftermath.</p>
<p>Travel has evolved significantly in the past six months since the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. There will likely <a href="https://www.chicagobusiness.com/opinion/virus-will-make-everything-you-hate-about-flying-worse">be a number of current initiatives in passenger and facility hygiene and sanitation</a> that will stay in place post-pandemic. </p>
<p>The woes of cruise ship operators, in the meantime, will continue as travellers continue to remain wary of travel in confined spaces.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A huge cruise ship approaches a harbour as a person watches at the end of a pier in the foreground." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350444/original/file-20200730-29-xpndwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350444/original/file-20200730-29-xpndwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350444/original/file-20200730-29-xpndwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350444/original/file-20200730-29-xpndwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350444/original/file-20200730-29-xpndwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350444/original/file-20200730-29-xpndwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350444/original/file-20200730-29-xpndwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The AIDAdiva cruise ship, on a 10-day trip from New York to Montréal, arrives in Halifax in October 2018. Travellers are likely to remain wary of cruises post-pandemic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Public health officials have identified <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-safer-aviation-guidance-for-operators#social-distancing">three societal practices that are key to controlling the spread of COVID-19</a>, each of which have an impact on the allure of travel — social distancing of two metres, frequent and intense hand-washing to reduce the risk of hand-borne transmission of the virus to the face, and face coverings in confined spaces.</p>
<p>While it’s generally accepted that the minimum social distancing cannot be maintained while travelling in today’s commercial aircraft, some carriers — <a href="https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/07/03/air-canada-physical-distancing-flight/">though not all, including Air Canada</a> — have adopted <a href="https://news.delta.com/delta-blocking-middle-seats-pausing-automatic-advance-upgrades-and-more-enable-more-space-safer">a policy of leaving an open seat beside a passenger</a>. </p>
<h2>Empty middle seats</h2>
<p>This initiative has attracted the attention of both public health officials as well air transport executives and associations, resulting in <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-merkley-to-propose-bill-blocking-middle-seats-on-planes-2020-7">an attempts by an American legislator to regulate empty middle seats on flights</a>. Airline executives have predicted a <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/travel/ryanair-ceo-middle-seats-idiotic-airline-fly">dire financial impact</a> from this attempt to ease crowding on airliners.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The empty interior of an airplane, with no passengers in any of the seats" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350447/original/file-20200730-13-14dmc6a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350447/original/file-20200730-13-14dmc6a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350447/original/file-20200730-13-14dmc6a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350447/original/file-20200730-13-14dmc6a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350447/original/file-20200730-13-14dmc6a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350447/original/file-20200730-13-14dmc6a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350447/original/file-20200730-13-14dmc6a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some airlines are leaving the middle seats empty on flights.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Piqsels)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Quarantines are also being used by authorities to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 from travellers arriving from jurisdictions that have a higher level of virus cases. </p>
<p>These quarantines range <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/do-you-have-quarantine-after-flying-california-1518697">from in-country travel bans among states or provinces</a> to <a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/travel/12233400/spain-quarantine-travel-ban-france-germany-holidays/">national quarantines for travellers arriving from high-risk regions</a>. Typical quarantine provisions can range from seven days to 14 days of self-isolation, with some authorities imposing <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2020/03/17/alarming-coronavirus-surveillance-bracelets-now-in-peoples-homes-heres-what-they-do/#358eaa174533">strict adherence through personal monitoring systems</a>.</p>
<p>Travellers’ health concerns are being reinforced by public health officials <a href="https://uspirg.org/sites/pirg/files/USP_Public-health_final-letter-shutdowns_V2.pdf">who are advocating for a return to lockdowns</a> and advisories to refrain from travel, including from the top infectious disease expert in the United States, Anthony Fauci, <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/anthony-fauci-tells-marketwatch-i-would-not-get-on-a-plane-or-eat-inside-a-restaurant-2020-07-24">who has raised concerns about the risks of getting on an aircraft</a>. The debate between <a href="https://winnipeg.citynews.ca/2020/05/04/taking-temperatures-to-screen-for-covid-19/">public health officials and airline executives will undoubtedly remain tense</a> as the world continues to grapple with the first wave, and in some places a second wave, of COVID-19 outbreaks.</p>
<h2>‘Travel bubbles’</h2>
<p>A growing number of countries have allowed the travel industry to <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-travel-corridors#countries-and-territories-with-no-self-isolation-on-arrival-in-england">promote “travel bubbles” and “corona corridors” as first steps</a> to jumpstart air travel and tourism. These measures involve agreements with neighbouring regions that allow for travel across borders for non-essential trips without quarantining upon arrival.</p>
<p>But there’s still the risk that such efforts will be short-lived given <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/25/reimposition-quarantine-hits-spain-struggling-tourism-sector">the resurgence of COVID-19 and the subsequent reimposition of quarantine practices in various parts of the world, including Spain</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A couple holds hands as they walk along a promenade, with white-washed buildings behind them and palm trees to the right." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350454/original/file-20200730-31-wgszog.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350454/original/file-20200730-31-wgszog.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350454/original/file-20200730-31-wgszog.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350454/original/file-20200730-31-wgszog.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350454/original/file-20200730-31-wgszog.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350454/original/file-20200730-31-wgszog.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350454/original/file-20200730-31-wgszog.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tourists and locals walk in the town of Sóller in the Balearic Islands of Spain on July 29, 2020. Concerns over a new wave of coronavirus infections brought on by returning vacationers to the U.K. are wreaking havoc across Spain’s tourism industry.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Joan Mateu)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The need to develop an <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/digital-contact-tracing.pdf">effective contact tracing platform</a> that would have global connectivity has been broached, but it remains in the discussion stage only. Issues such as <a href="http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200609000957">personal information rights and general distribution of location data have raised privacy concerns in a number of countries</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.icao.int/about-icao/Pages/default.aspx">International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)</a> has recommended several data-sharing practices, but the UN body also acknowledges <a href="https://www.icao.int/covid/cart/Pages/CART-Take-off.aspx">that a global, harmonized deployment ought to be a guiding principle to successfully contain the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic</a>. </p>
<p>IATA has also <a href="https://www.iata.org/contentassets/f1163430bba94512a583eb6d6b24aa56/covid-medical-evidence-for-strategies-200609.pdf">produced a set of guidelines for a gradual return of air services</a></p>
<p>The consensus among public health officials and travel industry executives is that travel <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/karenrobinsonjacobs/2020/07/23/american-southwest-see-3-billion-in-red-ink-as-coronavirus-fears-keep-passengers-grounded/#34db0e9e31c3">will continue to stagnate until a COVID-19 vaccine is effectively administered globally</a>. </p>
<p>But questions remain. </p>
<h2>Will the industry survive until a vaccine?</h2>
<p>How long until there’s a vaccine, and can the travel industry survive until then? </p>
<p>What role should governments play in ensuring the survival of the travel industry as it waits for the vaccine? </p>
<p>Will public health pressure be sufficient to overcome the reticence to share personal contact movement and information?</p>
<p>As the world progresses towards a COVID-19 vaccine and the eventual control of the virus, the travel industry will most certainly <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2020/06/15/11-ways-pandemic-will-change-travel/">face demands from the travelling public to maintain several of the current safety and hygiene initiatives</a>. </p>
<p>Cleanliness and sanitization will become the norm. Touchless interactions will proliferate, and technology will reduce human interaction.</p>
<p>Will the joy and exhilaration of travel return? Yes, but with a <a href="https://explaincovid.org/other/think-about-flying-on-an-airplane">new value proposition built around safe and secure travel</a>. Much like air travel changed after 9/11 with security screening, so will COVID-19 change our demands for a safe, clean travel experience.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142971/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Gradek does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Will the joy and exhilaration of travel return after the COVID-19 pandemic? Yes, but with a new value proposition built around safe and secure travel.
John Gradek, Faculty Lecturer and Program Co-ordinator, Global Aviation Leadership Program, McGill University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/134552
2020-05-20T20:02:27Z
2020-05-20T20:02:27Z
Plane cabins are havens for germs. Here’s how they can clean up their act
<p>Qantas has <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-19/qantas-social-distancing-coronavirus-covid19-measures/12263242">unveiled a range of precautions</a> to guard passengers against COVID-19. The safety measures expected to be rolled out on June 12 include contactless check-in, hand sanitiser at departure gates, and optional masks and sanitising wipes on board. </p>
<p>Controversially, however, there will be no physical distancing on board, because Qantas claims it is too expensive to run half-empty flights.</p>
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic is forcing airlines to look closely at their hygiene practices. But aircraft cabins were havens for germs long before the coronavirus came along. The good news is there are some simple ways on-board hygiene can be improved.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sanitising-the-city-does-spraying-the-streets-work-against-coronavirus-136966">Sanitising the city: does spraying the streets work against coronavirus?</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Common sense precautions</h2>
<p>As an environmental microbiologist I have observed, in general, a gradual loss of quality in hygiene globally. </p>
<p>Airports and aircrafts have <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/WNN/video/overcrowding-concerns-planes-70616212">crammed ever larger numbers</a> of passengers into <a href="https://time.com/5636154/airplane-legroom-shrinking-asia/">ever smaller economy-class seats</a>.</p>
<p>Although social distancing can’t do much in a confined cabin space – as the virus is reported to be able to travel <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa189/5820886">eight metres</a> — wearing face masks (viral ones in particular) and practising hand hygiene remain crucial.</p>
<p>Since microorganisms are invisible, it is hard to combat such a powerful enemy. During flights, I have observed a vast array of unwitting mistakes made by flight crew and passengers. </p>
<p>Some crew staff would go to the bathroom to push overflowing paper towels down into the bins, exit without washing their hands and continue to serve food and drinks. </p>
<p>We have the technology for manufacturers to install waste bins where paper towels can be shredded, disinfected and disposed of via suction, as is used in the toilets. Moreover, all aircraft waste bins should operate with pedals to prevent hand contamination.</p>
<p>Also, pilots should not share bathrooms with passengers, as is often the case. Imagine the consequences if pilots became infected and severely ill during a long flight, to the point of not being able to fly. Who would land the plane? </p>
<p>For instance, the highly transmissible <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/norovirus/about/symptoms.html">norovirus</a>, which causes vomiting and diarrhoea, can manifest within 12 hours of exposure. So for everyone’s safety, pilots should have their own bathroom. </p>
<h2>Food and the kitchen</h2>
<p>Aircraft kitchen areas should be as far as possible from toilets. </p>
<p>Male and female toilets should be separated because, due to the way men and women use the bathroom, male bathrooms are more likely to have droplets of urine splash outside the toilet bowl. Child toilets and change rooms should be separate as well. </p>
<p>Food trolleys should be covered with a sterile plastic sheet during service as they come close to seated passengers who could be infected. </p>
<p>And to allow traffic flow in the corridor, trolleys should not be placed near toilets. At times I have seen bread rolls in a basket with a nice white napkin, with the napkin touching the toilet door.</p>
<p>Also, blankets should not be used if the bags have been opened, and pillows should have their own sterile bags.</p>
<h2>Mind your luggage</h2>
<p>In March, luggage handlers <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-31/qantas-baggage-handlers-test-positive-to-coronavirus-in-sa/12107258">were infected</a> with COVID-19 at Adelaide Airport. </p>
<p>As a passenger, you should avoid placing your hand luggage on the seats while reaching into overhead lockers. There’s a chance your luggage was placed on a contaminated surface before you entered the plane, such as on a public bathroom floor.</p>
<p>Be wary of using the seat pocket in front of you. Previous passengers may have placed dirty (or infected) tissues there. So keep this in mind when using one to hold items such as your passport, or glasses, which come close to your eyes (through which SARS-CoV-2 <a href="https://www.health.qld.gov.au/news-events/news/novel-coronavirus-covid-19-how-it-spreads-transmission-infection-prevention-protection">can enter the body</a>).</p>
<p>Also, safety cards in seat pockets should be disposable and should be replaced after each flight.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/air-travel-spreads-infections-globally-but-health-advice-from-inflight-magazines-can-limit-that-120283">Air travel spreads infections globally, but health advice from inflight magazines can limit that</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>In facing the COVID-19 crisis, it’s important to remember that unless an antiviral drug or a vaccine is found, this virus could come back every year. </p>
<p>On many occasions, microbiologists have warned of the need for more <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30912268/">microbiology literacy</a> among the public. Yet, too often their calls are dismissed as paranoia, or being overly cautious. </p>
<p>But now’s the time to listen, and to start taking precaution. For all we know, there may be even more dangerous <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-pandemic-is-paving-the-way-for-an-increase-in-superbugs-135389">superbugs</a> breeding around us – ones we’ve simply yet to encounter.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/134552/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ipek Kurtböke is affiliated with
University of the Sunshine Coast (Senior Lecturer) and
World Federation of Culture Collections (President)</span></em></p>
Aircraft cabins have been germ hotspots since long before this pandemic. More ‘microbiology literacy’ is needed among the general public for this to improve.
Ipek Kurtböke, Senior Lecturer, Environmental Microbiology, University of the Sunshine Coast
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/135365
2020-04-21T15:01:27Z
2020-04-21T15:01:27Z
What future do airlines have? Three experts discuss
<p>Airlines face an unprecedented international crisis in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates that the global industry will lose <a href="https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/covid-19-delivers-unprecedented-shock/">US$252 billion</a> in 2020. Many airlines are cutting up to <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/geoffwhitmore/2020/04/11/what-airline-routes-are-still-active/#3a04d26c2794">90%</a> of their flight capacity. On March 1, more than two million people in the US were flying per day. A month on, <a href="https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput">fewer than 100,000</a> people are going through airport security daily. </p>
<p>Some climate activists have welcomed the emptied skies, pointing to the <a href="https://www.energylivenews.com/2020/04/06/coronavirus-could-see-38-drop-in-airline-co2-emissions/">dramatic fall</a> in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/12/global-carbon-emisions-could-fall-by-record-25bn-tonnes-in-2020">carbon emissions</a>. But <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/environment-and-conservation/2020/04/carbon-emissions-are-falling-sharply-due-coronavirus-not-long">others worry</a> that the bounce back and attempts to take back some of the losses might mean that an opportunity for fundamental, sustained change <a href="https://www.airport-technology.com/news/sustainable-aviation-2050-goal">may be missed</a>. </p>
<p>In the US, a federal government <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/american-airlines-delta-united-jetblue-reach-agreement-on-coronavirus-bailout-2020-4?r=US&IR=T">US$50 billion</a> bailout fund – part of which will fund cash grants going towards airline workers, and the other part loans for the airlines themselves – was rolled out piecemeal in March, with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/business/coronavirus-airlines-bailout-treasury-department.html">revisions announced</a> on April 14.</p>
<p>More than 200 airlines applied. American Airlines will get US$5.8 billion, Delta US$5.4 billion, and Southwest US$3.2 billion, among others. Donald Trump, the US president, stated that the airline bailout was needed to return the industry to “good shape” and was “not caused by them.” Another US$4 billion is available for cargo airlines and US$3 for contractors.</p>
<p>In the UK, it was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/24/uk-airlines-and-airports-told-not-to-expect-industry-wide-covid-19-bailout">initially announced</a> that no industry-wide bailout would be offered. Instead, the industry would have to rely on broader aid packages covering 80% of salaries (below a cap) for furloughed employees. But subsequently, the government quickly gave easyJet a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/06/easyjet-secures-600m-coronavirus-loan-from-uk-treasury-and-bank">£600 million</a> loan (US$740 million). Flybe, a smaller regional or “secondary” airline with pre-crisis financial issues, was not bailed out and collapsed. Many money-making routes Flybe ran have since been picked up by others.</p>
<p>Continental Europe is in worse shape. Italy has re-nationalised <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesasquith/2020/04/01/could-airlines-be-nationalised-as-italy-takes-full-ownership-of-alitalia-will-more-airlines-follow/#10ad02c377df">Alitalia</a>, forming a <a href="https://onemileatatime.com/alitalia-italian-government/">new state-owned entity</a> and investing €600 million (US$650 million). France has <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/france-expects-to-give-massive-support-to-air-france-klm">indicated</a> it will do whatever it takes to bailout Air France/KLM (France owns 15% and the Dutch 13%), with a possible €6 billion <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/16/business/16reuters-health-coronavirus-france-airfranceklm.html">bailout package</a> (US$6.5 billion). </p>
<p>Meanwhile, Australia’s Qantas secured a <a href="https://www.airlineratings.com/news/qantas-boosts-liquidity-1-05-billion-loan/">A$1 billion loan</a> (US$660 million). Debt-laden Virgin Australia, meanwhile, was denied a A$1.4 billion loan (US$880 million) and has subsequently plunged into <a href="https://theconversation.com/voluntary-administration-isnt-a-death-sentence-for-virgin-australia-or-for-competition-136832">voluntary administration</a>. Singapore Airlines, however, got a <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/singapore-airlines-obtains-13-billion-rescue-package-amid-coronavirus-shock/articleshow/74854750.cms">US$13 billion</a> aid package.</p>
<p>The airline industry has faced many crises before – 9/11 and the 2010 Icelandic volcano eruption, for example. But these pale in comparison to the <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/07/business/lufthansa-shuts-germanwings-on-coronavirus/index.html">economic hit</a> that airlines are currently facing. Some are asking: <a href="https://www.airfinancejournal.com/articles/3578388/coronavirus-liquidity-report-who-will-be-the-survivors">can it recover</a>? Is this an economic crisis that could reshape how we travel and live? Or will it turn out to be more of a pause, before returning to business as usual? And what role does the climate crisis play in all this – how will sustainability figure in any rebooting of the industry going forward? </p>
<p>We are all experts in the airline industry. Darren Ellis (Lecturer in Air Transport Management) considers these questions first, looking at the industry’s structure and response. Jorge Guira (Associate Professor in Law and Finance) then explores bailout options and likely future scenarios for the industry. Finally, Roger Tyers (Research Fellow in Environmental Sociology) considers how the industry might just be at a turning point in terms of how it tackles climate change.</p>
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<p><strong><em>This article is part of Conversation Insights</em></strong>
<br><em>The Insights team generates <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218">long-form journalism</a> derived from interdisciplinary research. The team is working with academics from different backgrounds who have been engaged in projects aimed at tackling societal and scientific challenges.</em> </p>
<hr>
<h2>A global problem</h2>
<p><em>Darren Ellis, Lecturer in Air Transport Management</em></p>
<p>Most of the global airline industry is currently grounded. Although some routes are still managing to operate, and there is evidence of a gradual <a href="https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/reports/covid-19-recovery-air-china-files-may-holiday-sched-at-2019-levels-520264">domestic air market rebound</a> in China, 2020 will certainly not see the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jun/02/airline-industry-cuts-profit-forecasts-fifth-us-china">4.6 billion</a> annual passengers of 2019. The long-term trend of ever-rising air passenger numbers year on year has been brought to a dramatic and rapid halt.</p>
<p>What this means for the global airline industry is vividly on display at airports around the globe as terminals <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/airport-runway-closed-flight-coronavirus-atlanta-hartsfield-jackson-a9421881.html">remain empty</a> and aircraft occupy any available parking space. </p>
<p>Like the predominately national response to the virus, so the airline industry is also seeing a wide range of policies and practices tailored and implemented almost exclusively at the national level. This means that some airlines, thanks to well-chosen national policies, will fare better, while others will flounder.</p>
<p>This is because beyond the multilateral single air market of Europe, the global industry remains firmly structured on a bilateral system. This web of country to country <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/principles-and-practice-of-international-aviation-law/7660D2C7ECDCCD3234E719BD55B3899A">air service agreements</a> (ASAs) is basically made up of trade treaties which governments sign with one another to determine the level of air access each is willing to permit. Even in Europe, the single air market essentially acts as one nation internally, while externally, individual European countries continue to deal with many countries on a bilateral basis. </p>
<p>The bilateral system is based on a bundle of rules and restrictions, including airline ownership (typically, a minimum of 51% of an airline must be owned by people from the country where the airline is based), national control, single airline citizenship and home base requirements. This effectively locks airlines into a single country or jurisdiction. </p>
<p>Despite this structure, global cooperation in aviation is strong, particularly across safety standardisation, but less so on the economic front. A lot of this cooperation happens via the <a href="https://www.icao.int/Pages/default.aspx">International Civil Aviation Organization</a> (ICAO), the industry’s specialised UN agency. Meanwhile, the <a href="https://www.iata.org/">IATA</a> supports and lobbies on behalf of member airlines.</p>
<p>Likewise, international mergers and acquisitions are rare – aside from in Europe, where partial mergers have created dual and multiple brands like <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/france-netherlands-seek-to-douse-air-france-klm-controversy/a-47738444">Air France/KLM</a>. Where single airline brands have been created with cross border mergers – such as LATAM Airlines in South America – national aircraft registration and other restrictions remain in place, thereby reflecting <a href="https://eu.usatoday.com/story/todayinthesky/2015/08/07/so-long-lan-and-tam-airlines--soon-fly-under-latam-brand/31293475/">multiple airlines</a> in these respects. </p>
<p>Consequently, national responses will be front and centre as the industry responds to the current pandemic. In countries where a single flag carrier is based, such as Thailand and Singapore, governments are unlikely to let their airlines fail. While in others, where multiple airlines operate, a <a href="https://australianaviation.com.au/2020/03/virgin-group-asks-for-1-4bn-bailout-reports/">level playing field</a> of assistance and support is more likely, even if outcomes <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/virgin-australia-set-for-voluntary-administration-20200420-p54lcd.html">differ widely</a>. This is not to say that all airlines will necessarily survive what is likely to be an extended <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/15/prepare-for-the-coronavirus-global-recession">U-shaped crisis</a>, unlike the more V-shaped crises of the past, such as 9/11 and the 2008 global financial crisis.</p>
<p>The national structure of the industry also highlights why major airlines failing is relatively rare. Yes, airlines have merged in domestic air markets like the US, and individual brands have disappeared as a result, but few major airlines have gone out of business because they failed. Even Swissair, which was famously <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2001/10/02/business/much-of-swissair-seeks-bankruptcy.html">bankrupt</a> and defunct in late 2001, soon reappeared as <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e1d4e966-fa89-11dc-aa46-000077b07658">Swiss International Airlines</a>. </p>
<p>And so, although airline brands have come and gone, the industry had remained on a growth path for decades. It will take time to recover from the pandemic. Some airlines will fail. But widespread changes to the industry’s structure are unlikely to occur. People will, of course, need and want to travel by air again when this pandemic is over. Which airlines survive – and which go on to thrive – will largely depend on how successful individual countries’ economic support packages turn out to be.</p>
<h2>Bailout essentials</h2>
<p><em>Jorge Guira, Associate Professor in Law and Finance</em></p>
<p>The global outcomes of the crisis, then, are firmly anchored in national responses. The airline industry is cyclical: it is used to peaks and valleys. Bailouts have repeatedly been <a href="https://www.wfw.com/articles/covid-19-aviation-restructuring-report/">vital for airlines</a>, so many countries have some sort of precedent to go by.</p>
<p>In any bailout, the <a href="https://www.airfinancejournal.com/articles/3578388/coronavirus-liquidity-report-who-will-be-the-survivors-?">key question</a> is whether this is a solvency or liquidity crisis. Solvency means that the airline will be very unlikely to ever remain financially viable. Liquidity means that the airline has a high risk of running out of cash flow but should be solvent soon, if supported. Assessing this is sometimes complex. </p>
<p>Cash is king. “Streamlining” – a fancy word for cost cutting – can help. Unencumbered assets such as aeroplanes can be sold, or used as collateral for loans. But many planes are often leased, so this may be problematic. </p>
<p>Existing contracts must be reviewed. Breach of covenants, which are legally binding promises to do (or to refrain from doing) things in a certain way, may need to be waived. For instance, lease agreements for the planes often require flights to carry on, and business as usual is suspended at present. Other agreements require flights to maintain landing spaces in airports – leading to the “<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-airlines-bailout-empty-flights-requirement-2020-4?r=US&IR=T">ghost planes</a>” many were appalled by earlier on in the crisis, and that still continue.</p>
<p>Certain financial tests may not be met, such as how much debt there is compared to earnings. These can alarm creditors. And this can lead to deterioration in bond credit ratings, reflecting increased financial distress. Other triggers may <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/airline-stocks-arent-a-buy-yet-heres-watch-to-watch-for-51584145003">also arise</a>. Defaulting on one financial contract usually requires informing other creditors. This can trigger defaults on other agreements, creating a domino effect.</p>
<p>So renegotiating operating and financial contracts is crucial. Airlines may have to pick and choose who to pay first. Unions must be kept happy, and other stakeholders must focus on recovery.</p>
<p>All this means that state bailouts, help and other guarantees are crucial for the industry to survive. In the US, for example, net operating losses are carried forward and used to shield revenues and offset these from tax for when things return to normal.</p>
<p>If liquidity is the problem, the real issue is time: how long will it take for the airline to get back on its feet and resume flying more normally? If solvency is the problem, the company cannot survive the demand collapse it is facing. The COVID-19 pandemic is such a fraught time for airlines because of the difficulty in predicting when the crisis will end. This can complicate determining whether it is a more temporary liquidity crisis or a deeper solvency concern.</p>
<p>After 9/11, the airline industry completely shut down in the US. People witnessing the horrifying scenes of the Twin Towers’ collapse were hardly eager to board a plane. So, the government chose to step in to restore confidence. And it did so, successfully, by offering aid including loans and used warrants, which involves investing in airlines when the stock is at a reduced or rock bottom price and waiting for it to go up again. The US government’s COVID-19 financial rescue package <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/business/dealbook/coronavirus-airline-bailouts.html">parallels this approach</a>.</p>
<p>The US approach is noteworthy because of its size and scale, and the fact that it is built on the 9/11 case and has been modified for the unique present circumstances. It is also an interesting counterpoint to the strategy of the strongly free market-oriented UK, and Australia, which has been more restrained in its approach.</p>
<p>Airline norms suggest that 25% of revenues should be kept in case of any emergency, but this <a href="https://www.airfinancejournal.com/articles/3578388/coronavirus-liquidity-report-who-will-be-the-survivors-?">has tended not to happen recently</a>. Corporate earnings have generally not been held for a rainy day, and now that rainy day has arrived. This creates a classic moral hazard problem: many airlines seem to act as if they are too important to fail, because in the end, they believe they will be bailed out. And regulation does not otherwise hold any excesses in check.</p>
<p>Compounding this, some US airlines have recently been accumulating cheap debt, due to low interest rates and lots of credit availability. The five big US carriers, instead of paying off debt, have been spending <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/airline-bailout-coronavirus-share-buyback-debate-trump-economy-aoc-2020-3-1029006175">96%</a> of available cash on <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-16/u-s-airlines-spent-96-of-free-cash-flow-on-buybacks-chart">stock buybacks</a>. Many <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/kathrynjudge/2020/04/15/the-covid-19-bailouts/amp/">question</a> whether airlines should be bailed out in <a href="https://clsbluesky.law.columbia.edu/2020/04/14/large-corporations-did-not-need-a-bailout/amp/">these circumstances</a>. Limits on paying dividends, buyback of stock, and other terms would logically apply here, as in the earlier US bailout measures <a href="https://fortune.com/2020/04/15/airline-bailout-terms-stock-buybacks-dividends-ceo-pay-salaries-american-delta-united-southwest/">announced in March</a>. </p>
<p>While the US case may provide a helpful initial focus, the UK approach is likely to be highly influential, perhaps more so given the reduced resource level – and greater level of climate awareness – there. As Darren pointed out earlier, one model does not fit all but this may offer a useful comparative framework for other approaches that favour national champions or nationalisations. </p>
<p>The UK is reportedly considering partial nationalisation, such as in the case of <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/british-airways-faces-bailout-as-coronavirus-crisis-engulfs-airlines-m50j2dvjn">British Airways</a>. British Airways has furloughed 35,000 employees, with many pay packets supported by the government – for now. British Airways appears better placed to cherry pick key routes, assets and companies as it ranks in the top group <a href="https://home.kpmg/xx/en/blogs/home/posts/2020/04/covid-19-and-the-global-aviation-industry.html">for liquidity</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328656/original/file-20200417-152563-1xzxcox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328656/original/file-20200417-152563-1xzxcox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328656/original/file-20200417-152563-1xzxcox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328656/original/file-20200417-152563-1xzxcox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328656/original/file-20200417-152563-1xzxcox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328656/original/file-20200417-152563-1xzxcox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328656/original/file-20200417-152563-1xzxcox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A grounded BA plane.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Steve Parsons/PA Wire/PA Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If Virgin Atlantic were to collapse, its size means it may fit in the too important to fail category. It appears that bailout talks are ongoing but Richard Branson’s life as an <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52354865">offshore UK resident</a>, and Delta’s ownership of a 49% stake, present potential political clouds. Questions about <a href="https://www.twobirds.com/en/news/articles/2020/global/state-aid-and-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-the-aviation-sector">whether it should get state aid</a> given current crisis conditions also arise. This is generally forbidden, although the EU has temporarily indicated a <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/competition/state_aid/what_is_new/covid_19.html">COVID-19 relaxation</a> of the rules. No environmental strings have apparently been attached, as former EU officials and others <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/01/financial-help-for-airlines-should-come-with-strict-climate-conditions">have suggested</a> should be the case.</p>
<p>Overall, the survival of the global industry therefore depends on bailouts, not only to keep airlines afloat but also for the wider travel and leisure ecosystem. </p>
<p>The lack of of sustainability conditions in UK and indeed US bailouts appears to be mirrored globally. But a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/04/climate-change-world-war-iii-green-new-deal">Green New Deal</a> in a second recovery phase of aid could provide this. And <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/2019/7/25/8881364/greta-thunberg-climate-change-flying-airline">greater awareness</a> of the issue thanks to the likes of Greta Thunberg, an increased culture of working from home, and ongoing measures to increase accountability and reporting of emissions means this aspect may well play a vital role in the repackaging of airlines going into the future. Much of it begins with how emissions targeting interacts with the COVID-19 crisis.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-how-economic-rescue-plans-can-set-the-global-economy-on-a-path-to-decarbonisation-135909">Coronavirus: how economic rescue plans can set the global economy on a path to decarbonisation</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Aviation and climate change</h2>
<p><em>Roger Tyers, Research Fellow in Environmental Sociology</em></p>
<p>As Jorge says, for the growing number of people concerned by aviation’s rising carbon emissions, this pandemic may be a rare chance to do things differently. When air travel is eventually unpaused, can we set it on a more sustainable trajectory?</p>
<p>Even before this pandemic hit, aviation faced increasing pressure in the fight against climate change. While other sectors are slowly decarbonising, international aviation is forecast to <a href="https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2018-10-24-02/">double</a> passenger numbers by 2037, meaning its share of global emissions may increase tenfold to <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2015/569964/IPOL_STU(2015)569964_EN.pdf">22% by 2050</a>. </p>
<p>Most flights are taken by a relatively well-off <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/3/20/21184814/climate-change-energy-income-inequality">minority</a>, often for leisure reasons, and of questionable <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-7520409/Nearly-HALF-flights-deemed-unimportant-pointless-people-taking-them.html">necessity</a>. We might wonder whether it is wise to devote so much of our remaining carbon “allowance” to aviation over sectors like energy or food which – as we are now being reminded – are fundamental to human life.</p>
<p>Regulators at the UN’s <a href="https://www.icao.int/Pages/default.aspx">ICAO</a> have responded to calls for climate action with their Carbon Offset and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation <a href="https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/CORSIA/Pages/default.aspx">(CORSIA)</a> scheme. Under this, international aviation can continue to expand, as long as growth above a 2020 baseline is “net-neutral” in terms of emissions.</p>
<p>While critics cite numerous <a href="https://flightfree.co.uk/post/behind-the-veil-what-the-aviation-industry-really-thinks-about-climate-change/">problems</a> with it, the idea is to reduce emissions above the 2020 baseline through a combination of fuel efficiencies, improvements in air traffic management and biofuels. The remaining, huge shortfall in emissions will be covered by large-scale carbon offsetting. Last year, IATA estimated that about <a href="https://www.iata.org/contentassets/fb745460050c48089597a3ef1b9fe7a8/paper-offsetting-for-aviation.pdf">2.5 billion tonnes</a> of offsets will be required by CORSIA between 2021 and 2035.</p>
<p>This plan has been thrown into disarray by the COVID-19 crisis. The emissions baseline for CORSIA was supposed to be calculated based on 2019-20 flight figures. But given that the industry has come to a standstill – demand may take a <a href="https://go.updates.iata.org/webmail/123902/1132265093/0f71e0a5afb5eda4c820a327d343e19139c83ac83cbba4afa4ed25e5e8177474">38%</a> hit in 2020 – that baseline will be much lower than expected. So once flights resume, emissions growth post-2020 will be much higher than anyone predicted. Airlines will need to purchase many more carbon offset credits, raising operating costs and passing these onto customers.</p>
<p>Airlines trying to get back on their feet will be hostile to any such additional burdens, and will probably seek <a href="https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/documents/Coronavirus_and_CORSIA_analysis.pdf">methods</a> to recalculate the baseline in their favour. But for environmentalists, this might be an opportunity to strengthen CORSIA, which despite its flaws is the only current framework for tackling aviation emissions globally.</p>
<p>Some still consider CORSIA to be an elaborate sideshow. The real game-changer for sustainable aviation would be fuel tax reform, which might receive more scrutiny when attention shifts onto how to repay the eye-watering levels of public debt incurred during lockdown.</p>
<p>Since the 1944 Chicago Convention, which gave birth to ICAO and the modern aviation industry, putting VAT on flight tickets and tax on kerosene jet fuel has been effectively illegal. This is the primary reason why flying is relatively cheap compared to other transport modes, and arguably why the industry has <a href="https://twitter.com/rutherdan/status/1202761468241793024">under-invested</a> in research into cleaner fuels.</p>
<p>With the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-49349566">most-polluting</a> form of transport enjoying the lowest <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0966692314001586?via%3Dihub">taxes</a>, this regime has long been questionable in terms of emissions. It may soon become untenable in terms of tax justice, too. In 2018, France’s Gilets Jaunes movement was partly motivated by <a href="https://www.greeneconomycoalition.org/news-analysis/green-hearts-and-gilets-jaunes">anger</a> at increased fuel tax for cars and vans, while air travel continued to benefit from historic tax exemptions. This anger may return when governments inevitably raise taxes to repay their multi-billion-dollar COVID-19-related debts. </p>
<p>Campaigners are already <a href="https://stay-grounded.org/250-organisations-demand-red-lines-for-aviation-bailouts/">demanding</a> that any airline bailout be linked to tax reform, and there is huge potential there. <a href="https://www.transportenvironment.org/publications/leaked-european-commission-study-aviation-taxes">Leaked</a> EU papers in 2019 suggest that ending kerosene tax exemptions in Europe could raise €27 billion (US$29 billion) in revenues every year. Such sources of revenue may soon become irresistible, and national governments might seek to collect them unilaterally, with or without a coordinated ICAO response. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.aef.org.uk/2005/02/09/blair-rules-out-cheap-flight-tax/">Tony Blair</a>, the former UK prime minister, once said that no politician facing election would ever vote to end cheap air travel. But – to state the obvious – these are unprecedented times, and public attitudes to flying may well change. </p>
<p>On the demand side, once borders reopen, there could be a short-term travel boom as postponed flights are rebooked and stranded people fly home. But even after an official virus “all-clear”, those considering holidays may think twice before sharing cramped plane cabins with strangers. Business travellers, crucial to airline <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/041315/how-much-revenue-airline-industry-comes-business-travelers-compared-leisure-travelers.asp">profits</a>, may find that they’ve got so used to using Zoom, they don’t need always to fly to meetings in person.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/06/easyjet-secures-600m-coronavirus-loan-from-uk-treasury-and-bank">members</a> of the industry admit, by the time passengers return to air travel in significant numbers, the airlines, routes and prices they find may look very different. Governments will face huge industry pressure to safeguard jobs and return to business as usual as soon as possible. But managed properly, this could be the start of a just and sustainable transition for aviation.</p>
<h2>The future’s up in the air</h2>
<p>All three of us feel the airline industry is at a key turning point. The size and scale of bailouts will vary. Government political will and philosophy, access to capital, and the viability of the industry itself are key factors that will inform whether a company is worth saving.</p>
<p>Any future must be based on the premise of preserving economic vibrancy while reducing climate risk. But not all governments will factor this in.</p>
<p>Events are moving fast, with Emirates in Dubai <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-15/emirates-starts-rapid-testing-passengers-for-virus-before-flight">starting to</a> test passengers for COVID-19 before boarding. Meanwhile, easyJet is considering <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/16/easyjet-weighs-up-empty-middle-seats-once-coronavirus-rules-are-eased">social distancing</a> on planes as part of a “de-densification” policy, with fewer passengers and higher prices, albeit across more routes. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328658/original/file-20200417-152607-126gxio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328658/original/file-20200417-152607-126gxio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328658/original/file-20200417-152607-126gxio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328658/original/file-20200417-152607-126gxio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328658/original/file-20200417-152607-126gxio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328658/original/file-20200417-152607-126gxio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328658/original/file-20200417-152607-126gxio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Up in the air.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/zNQr2ijkVQQ">Hudson Hintze/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Longer term, there are various ways this could play out. All depend upon the duration of the crisis and the confluence of political, legal and economic factors. </p>
<p>It is possible that market structure remains unchanged, with ownership of airlines staying relatively stable, supported by bailouts. Under this business-as-usual scenario, sustainability would incrementally be enhanced through airlines retiring older, less carbon efficient planes and replacing them with better ones. But this scenario is subject to tremendous uncertainty. </p>
<p>Or, sustainability might become more important after the crisis, thanks to increased environmental awareness, demand loss, and new green investment. This would take place at different speeds, with Europe perhaps being more proactive through government incentives and serious emissions targeting. The US would lag behind, but making some advances due to increased stakeholder concerns. In this scenario, there is some scaling down of travel to meet demand, which is <a href="https://fortune.com/2020/04/15/coronavirus-business-travel-covid-19/">reduced</a>. Increased sustainable investment emerges. Due to partial recovery, a new normal emerges.</p>
<p>It is also possible that prolonged, severe shortage of capital and an awareness of the climate crisis could, hypothetically, lead to massive change. But governments’ concern for jobs is likely to crowd out environmental concerns. Political forces on the left and right would have to mend fences and agree that, in a depression-like scenario, a new world is needed, not just a new normal.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em>For you: more from our <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Insights series</a>:</em></p>
<ul>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/lockdown-lessons-from-the-history-of-solitude-134611?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Lockdown lessons from the history of solitude</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-the-world-be-like-after-coronavirus-four-possible-futures-134085?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">What will the world be like after coronavirus? Four possible futures</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-the-world-a-history-of-how-a-silent-cosmos-led-humans-to-fear-the-worst-120193?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">The end of the world: a history of how a silent cosmos led humans to fear the worst</a></em></p></li>
</ul>
<p><em>To hear about new Insights articles, join the hundreds of thousands of people who value The Conversation’s evidence-based news. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-2?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK"><strong>Subscribe to our newsletter</strong></a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135365/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Darren Ellis owns Qantas Airways (QAN) shares. He is a member of the Royal Aeronautical Society (MRAeS). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Tyers is an unpaid member of the FlightFree2020 campaign.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jorge Guira does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
The airline industry has faced many crises before. But these pale in comparison to the economic hit that airlines are currently facing.
Darren Ellis, Lecturer in Air Transport Management, Cranfield University
Jorge Guira, Associate Professor of Law and Finance, University of Reading
Roger Tyers, Teaching and Research Fellow in Sociology, University of Southampton
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/120283
2019-07-17T19:46:32Z
2019-07-17T19:46:32Z
Air travel spreads infections globally, but health advice from inflight magazines can limit that
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284420/original/file-20190717-173370-3btbfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Our research showed that inflight magazines offered travellers health advice on everything from dehydration to swollen ankles, but hardly anything on avoiding catching and spreading infectious diseases.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/asian-passenger-reading-magazine-menue-catalog-1155462985?src=vUDfEziJwFDV7GZr5OYMRA-1-0&studio=1">from www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>“Travel safe, travel far, travel wide, and travel often,” <a href="https://thoughtcatalog.com/matthew-kepnes/2014/01/53-travel-quotes-to-inspire-you-to-see-the-world/">says</a> <a href="https://www.nomadicmatt.com/">Nomadic Matt</a>, the American who quit his job to travel the world, write about it and coach others to do the same.</p>
<p>But there’s a downside to all this travel, with its unprecedented volume of passengers moving from one side of the world to the other, largely by plane.</p>
<p>There’s the risk of those passengers spreading infectious diseases and microorganisms resistant to multiple drugs (superbugs) around the world.</p>
<p>Yet, our recently published <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1477893919301218">research</a> into health advice provided by inflight magazines shows plane passengers are given practically no advice on how to limit the spread of infectious diseases.</p>
<p>Should we be worried about the part air travel plays in spreading infectious diseases? And what can we do about it?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/remote-village-to-metropolis-how-globalisation-spreads-infectious-diseases-92216">Remote village to metropolis: how globalisation spreads infectious diseases</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How big is the risk?</h2>
<p>Low airfares and a series of social and economic factors have made global air travel more common than ever. According to the Australian government department of infrastructure, transport, cities and regional development the <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/files/International_airline_activity_CY2018.pdf">number of passengers taking international scheduled flights in 2018 was 41.575 million</a>. But the International Air Transport Association projects passenger demand will <a href="https://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/2019-02-27-02.aspx">reach 8.2 billion by 2037</a>.</p>
<p>There are many examples of infectious diseases spread via international flying. The World Health Organization documented <a href="https://www.who.int/ith/mode_of_travel/tcd_aircraft/en/">transmission of tuberculosis</a> (TB) on board commercial aircraft during long-haul flights during the 1980s. </p>
<p>Research published in 2011 documents the <a href="https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/17/7/10-1135_article">transmission of influenza</a> on two transcontinental international flights in May 2009.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/health-check-are-you-up-to-date-with-your-vaccinations-116510">Health Check: are you up to date with your vaccinations?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>More recently, the current <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-people-born-between-1966-and-1994-are-at-greater-risk-of-measles-and-what-to-do-about-it-110167">global outbreak of measles</a> in many countries, including the Philippines and the United States, gave rise to the risk of transmission during international travel. In a recent case a <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/alerts/Pages/measles-alert-january.aspx">baby</a> too young to be vaccinated who had <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/measles-alert-after-infectious-baby-flew-from-manila-went-to-central-coast-20190603-p51tzs.html">measles</a> returned from Manilla in the Philippines to Sydney, exposing travellers on that flight to infection. </p>
<p>Then there is the risk of transmitting antimicrobial-resistant organisms that cause disease, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-tb-and-am-i-at-risk-of-getting-it-in-australia-75290">multi-drug resistant TB</a>.</p>
<p>Recently, patients in Victoria and New South Wales were identified as carrying the drug-resistant fungus <a href="https://www2.health.vic.gov.au/about/news-and-events/healthalerts/candida-auris-case-detected-in-victoria"><em>Candida auris</em></a>, which they acquired overseas.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-candida-auris-and-who-is-at-risk-115293">Explainer: what is Candida auris and who is at risk?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27890665">One study</a> estimates that over 300 million travellers visit high-risk areas, such as the western Pacific, Southeast Asia and Eastern Mediterranean, each year worldwide, and more than 20% return as new carriers of resistant organisms.</p>
<p>These popular destinations, as well as the Middle East, have high rates of drug resistant organisms.</p>
<h2>How is this happening?</h2>
<p>Aircraft move large volumes of people around the world swiftly. But what sets them apart from buses and trains is that passengers are close together, in confined spaces, for a long time. This increases the risk of transmitting infections.</p>
<p>Passengers interact with high-touch surfaces, such as tray tables, headsets, seats and handles. We cough, sneeze and touch multiple surfaces multiple times during a flight, with limited opportunities to clean our hands with soap and water. </p>
<p>Many infections, such as gastroenteritis and diarrhoea, are spread and contracted by touch and contact.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/flu-lasts-for-more-than-an-hour-in-air-and-on-surfaces-why-cleaning-can-really-help-97823">Flu lasts for more than an hour in air and on surfaces – why cleaning can really help</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What can we do about it?</h2>
<p>Providing plane travellers with relevant health advice is one way to limit the spread of infectious diseases via air travel.</p>
<p>This would include information and advice on routine hand washing with soap and water, or using alcohol-based hand rubs, and other basic measures including cough etiquette, such as coughing into your elbow and covering your nose and face.</p>
<p><a href="https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/4/2/102/1847252">Researchers</a> have looked at the role commercial websites and travel agencies might play in providing that advice. And since the 1990s, airline magazines have been <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/4/2/102/1847252">highlighted</a> as an underused source of traveller health advice. More than 20 years on, we discovered little has changed.</p>
<p>In our recent study, published in the journal <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1477893919301218">Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease</a>, we looked at the content of inflight magazines from 103 airlines issued during January 2019. </p>
<p>Of the 47 available online, only a quarter (11) included an official section on passengers’ general health and well-being, of which only two contained information related to infection control and the preventing infectious diseases.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284424/original/file-20190717-173366-w48bmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284424/original/file-20190717-173366-w48bmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284424/original/file-20190717-173366-w48bmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284424/original/file-20190717-173366-w48bmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284424/original/file-20190717-173366-w48bmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284424/original/file-20190717-173366-w48bmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284424/original/file-20190717-173366-w48bmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284424/original/file-20190717-173366-w48bmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Inflight magazines have a potential audience of billions. So why not include advice on hand hygiene and coughing etiquette?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/1424594042?src=vUDfEziJwFDV7GZr5OYMRA-1-2&studio=1&size=medium_jpg">from www.shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The first magazine, from a UAE-based airline, had an official section on passenger health and well-being that included very limited relevant content. It advised passengers “with blood diseases or ear, nose and sinus infections should seek medical advice before flying”.</p>
<p>There was no further explanation or information, nor were there any strategies to prevent these or other infections.</p>
<p>The second magazine, from a USA-based airline, contained general travel health advice, but none specifically about infectious diseases. </p>
<p>However there was a full-page, colour advertisement next to the health section. This contained images of many disease causing microorganisms on passengers’ tray tables and advocated the use of a disinfectant wipe for hands and other inflight surfaces. </p>
<p>The slogan “because germs are frequent fliers” was displayed across the tray table. This was accompanied by information about the use and effectiveness of disinfectant wipes for hand hygiene and disinfecting surfaces during air travel, public transport use, and in hotels and restaurants.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/going-travelling-dont-forget-insurance-and-to-read-the-fine-print-107961">Going travelling? Don't forget insurance (and to read the fine print)</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Inflight magazines are valuable assets for airlines and are the source of considerable advertising revenue. They are read by potentially billions of passengers every year. The results of this study show that they are a greatly underused source of information about infection control and measures to prevent the spread of infectious diseases. </p>
<p>Airlines should also provide health advice to passengers in other media, in particular video screens, about infection prevention and basic control measures such as hand hygiene, cough etiquette and personal hygiene. </p>
<p>Such advice should be provided before, during and after the flight. It could also include destination-related advice for particularly risky travel routes and destinations.</p>
<h2>More information for passengers</h2>
<p>Airlines providing health advice to passengers is just one way to limit the spread of infectious diseases and antimicrobial-resistant organisms around the world via air travel.</p>
<p>This would need to sit alongside other measures, such as <a href="https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/page/travel-industry-information-center">information and guidelines</a> provided to those who travel via the sea.</p>
<p>The simple, low-cost measures highlighted in our research could go a long way to help passengers stay healthy and avoid illness from infectious diseases. At the same time, these measures could reduce the impact of outbreaks of infectious diseases for airlines and society as a whole.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-the-drugs-dont-work-how-we-can-turn-the-tide-of-antimicrobial-resistance-71711">When the drugs don’t work: how we can turn the tide of antimicrobial resistance</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/120283/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ramon Z. Shaban receives funding from New South Wales Health Pathology and GAMA Healthcare. Ramon Z. Shaban is affiliated with the Marie Bashir Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity and Susan Wakil School of Nursing and Midwifery within the Faculty of Medicine and Health of the University of Sydney and the Western Sydney Local Health District. He is also Immediate Past President of the Australasian College for Infection Prevention and Control.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cristina Sotomayor-Castillo is affiliated with Marie Bashir Institute for Infectious Disease and Biosecurity and Susan Wakil School of Nursng and Midwifery within the Faculty of Medicine and Health of the University of Sydney and the Western Sydney Local Health District (WSLHD). </span></em></p>
Washing hands and coughing into your elbow can help limit the spread of infectious diseases on planes and around the globe. So why don’t passengers read about this in their inflight magazines?
Ramon Zenel Shaban, Clinical Chair and Professor of Infection Prevention and Disease Control at the University of Sydney, University of Sydney
Cristina Sotomayor-Castillo, Senior Research Officer, University of Sydney
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/117899
2019-06-10T01:03:24Z
2019-06-10T01:03:24Z
How Qantas and other airlines decide whether to fly near volcanoes
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278033/original/file-20190605-40710-1t4t4y1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Airlines will not fly when there is volcanic ash in the air above Bali's Mt Agung. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joe Le Merou/flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Mount Agung volcano in Bali, Indonesia, has been erupting intermittently since November 2017. The volcano erupted six times in the last month and resulted in the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-25/balis-mount-agung-volcano-erupts-forcing-flight-cancellations/11149336">cancellation and delay of some flights</a> in and out of Bali’s Ngurah Rai International Airport.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1134356577232838656"}"></div></p>
<p>Such continuous but sporadic volcanic activity is a challenge for local emergency management. </p>
<p>But it’s also an issue for planes.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/balis-agung-using-volcano-forensics-to-map-the-past-and-predict-the-future-88229">Bali's Agung – using 'volcano forensics' to map the past, and predict the future</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Captain Mike Galvin, head of fleet operations at Qantas Australia, told us volcanic ash in the air is a concern for airlines. </p>
<p>“The primary issue of volcanic ash for aeroplanes is the melting of ash in the engine turbines and the blocking of sensors that measure air speed and altitude. This can result in differences in flight information displayed to each pilot,” Galvin said. </p>
<p>“Qantas pilots are trained in these procedures during simulator training.</p>
<p>"Additional problems arise from reduced visibility due to the opacity of windscreens, and contamination of air entering the cabin.”</p>
<p>Currently the airline industry adopts a “no fly” policy for any visible or discernible volcanic ash. </p>
<p>“Engine and aeroplane manufacturers will not certify any level of ash tolerance,” Galvin said.</p>
<h2>Ash is a serious problem for planes</h2>
<p>Mt Agung is just the latest example of <a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/545/DS545.pdf" title="Encounters of Aircraft with Volcanic Ash Clouds: A Compilation of Known Incidents, 1953–2009">volcanoes interrupting flights</a> in Indonesia and other countries. </p>
<p>In April 2010, an eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland caused disruption to European air traffic for several days and cost the aviation industry an estimated <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2010EO210002" title="Eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull Volcano, Iceland">US$250 million</a> per day. </p>
<p>Volcanic ash is made up of volcanic glass, crystals and other rock fragments less than 2mm in size. Ash from explosive eruptions can reach into the stratosphere – 10-20km above the volcano, which is within the cruising altitude of commercial aircraft – and be dispersed by winds up to thousands of kilometres away.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277548/original/file-20190603-69051-1smh5w7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277548/original/file-20190603-69051-1smh5w7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277548/original/file-20190603-69051-1smh5w7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277548/original/file-20190603-69051-1smh5w7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277548/original/file-20190603-69051-1smh5w7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277548/original/file-20190603-69051-1smh5w7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277548/original/file-20190603-69051-1smh5w7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277548/original/file-20190603-69051-1smh5w7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An ash particle just over 0.1mm long erupted during the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St Helens (magnified 200 times).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanic_ash/components_ash.html">USGS</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The 1982 eruption of Mt Galunggung in Java, Indonesia, clearly demonstrated the potential impact of volcanic ash to aircraft. </p>
<p>Flight BA009 en route to Perth from Kuala Lumpur <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/8622099.stm">flew through ash from the eruption</a>. This caused sulfurous fumes to enter the cabin and the failure of all four engines, which fortunately restarted after a dive to lower altitude.</p>
<h2>Keeping watch on volcanic ash in the skies</h2>
<p>Following several aviation encounters with volcanic ash in the 1980s, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (<a href="https://www.icao.int/">ICAO</a>), in collaboration with the World Meteorological Organisation (<a href="https://public.wmo.int/en">WMO</a>), established nine volcanic ash advisory centres (<a href="https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/news/vaac/latest-reports.html">VAACs</a>), in Anchorage, Buenos Aires, Darwin, London, Montreal, Tokyo, Toulouse, Washington, and Wellington.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277546/original/file-20190603-69075-rffp0c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277546/original/file-20190603-69075-rffp0c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277546/original/file-20190603-69075-rffp0c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277546/original/file-20190603-69075-rffp0c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277546/original/file-20190603-69075-rffp0c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277546/original/file-20190603-69075-rffp0c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277546/original/file-20190603-69075-rffp0c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277546/original/file-20190603-69075-rffp0c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Map showing the nine volcanic ash advisory centres (VAACs) and the regions they are responsible for.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.bom.gov.au/aviation/volcanic-ash/index.shtml">Bureau of Meteorology</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The role of the VAACs is to provide advice to the aviation industry about the location and movement of volcanic ash within their region. The VAACs gather information issued from local volcano observatories, satellite imagery and other available information such as volcano webcams, pilot reports, and online news.</p>
<p>VAACs perform detailed modelling for individual eruptions and issue images in the shape of a polygon (“ash polygon”) showing current ash-affected air, and where ash is predicted to move over the next few hours.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/aviation/volcanic-ash/">Darwin VAAC</a> covers the volcanically active regions of Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and the southern Philippines.</p>
<h2>How airlines manage risk</h2>
<p>Qantas’ Mike Galvin said he makes safety decisions based on information gathered by his team using all available sources.</p>
<p>With regards to Bali’s Mt Agung, Galvin said getting the timing right is an important aspect of the process. </p>
<p>“Here in Australia we might be 5-6 hours away from the ash in Indonesia so we need to make decisions several hours before the plane departs,” he said.</p>
<p>Galvin works closely with the Darwin and Tokyo VAACs.</p>
<p>“But we also have our own team of five meteorologists on constant shifts, who utilise information from other sources such as satellite images from the Japanese Himawari satellite,” he said.</p>
<p>“If a polygon of ash lies over the destination airport or on its approach or departure path, then we will not land.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277756/original/file-20190603-69067-1mkbnzf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277756/original/file-20190603-69067-1mkbnzf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277756/original/file-20190603-69067-1mkbnzf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277756/original/file-20190603-69067-1mkbnzf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277756/original/file-20190603-69067-1mkbnzf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277756/original/file-20190603-69067-1mkbnzf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277756/original/file-20190603-69067-1mkbnzf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277756/original/file-20190603-69067-1mkbnzf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Example summary of the volcanic ash advisory from the Darwin VAAC at the beginning of the Agung eruption in November 2017. Ash polygons shown in red. Each picture shows the forecast of ash movement over a period of hours.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://reliefweb.int/map/indonesia/volcano-warning-agung-volcano-indonesia-issued-time-30-november-2017-0100-utc-darwin">OCHA/ReliefWeb/Pacific Disaster Centre using Darwin VAAC data</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How science can help</h2>
<p>Since the Icelandic eruption there has been increased <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/langley/nasa-studying-volcanic-ash-engine-test-results">research into volcanic ash impacts</a> on aeroplane engines and <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0954410015623372" title="A re-evaluation of the 2010 quantitative understanding of the effects volcanic ash has on gas turbine engines">how much ash</a> they can tolerate. </p>
<p>While it is possible engines can tolerate low concentrations of ash, experts don’t yet know what the precise limit of ash that a particular engine can withstand. Further research is needed to determine this. </p>
<p>“Science can also assist the aviation industry though better assessment of the concentrations of ash at different altitudes such as at 20,000 and 30,000 feet,” Galvin said.</p>
<p>In the longer term, volcano science can help airlines understand more about volcanic ash hazards and risks to particular regions. For the Asia-Pacific region, average recurrence intervals have been calculated for each magnitude of volcanic eruption. This is measured by a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI).</p>
<p>To put VEI in context, the eruptions in the current phase of activity at Agung have been attributed a <a href="https://volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=264020">VEI of 3</a> on a logarithmic scale that runs from 0 to 8. It’s estimated we have 1.4 eruptions per year of this magnitude in the Asia-Pacific region.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277803/original/file-20190604-69083-blw4nm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277803/original/file-20190604-69083-blw4nm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277803/original/file-20190604-69083-blw4nm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277803/original/file-20190604-69083-blw4nm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277803/original/file-20190604-69083-blw4nm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277803/original/file-20190604-69083-blw4nm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277803/original/file-20190604-69083-blw4nm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277803/original/file-20190604-69083-blw4nm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Calculated average return periods for volcanic eruptions of various magnitudes in the Asia-Pacific Region. Eruption data from Smithsonian Volcanoes of the World Catalogue (volcano.si.edu) and LaMEVE database of large explosive eruptions (www.bgs.ac.uk/vogripa/view/controller.cfc?method=lameve). Data completeness analysis carried out for each Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) category by Stuart Mead and Christina Magill (2014).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Christina Magill</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The 1883 Krakatau eruption in Indonesia and 1991 Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines were significantly larger, VEI 6 eruptions, which have been estimated to recur every 111 years in the region.</p>
<p>This raises the question of how well prepared the aviation industry is, and countries as a whole, for the next even larger <a href="https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geosphere/article/14/2/572/529016/anticipating-future-volcanic-explosivity-index-vei">VEI 7 eruption</a>, such as that at Tambora in Indonesia in 1815, which erupted <a href="https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article/12/11/659/188320/volcanological-study-of-the-great-tambora-eruption">175 cubic km of fragmented volcanic material</a> in just 24 hours.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08564-9" title="Dyke intrusion between neighbouring arc volcanoes responsible for 2017 pre-eruptive seismic swarm at Agung">Recent scientific research</a> on Agung suggests that the molten rock (magma) feeding Agung volcano below may also be connected to the neighbouring volcano, Batur. The connectivity of magma plumbing systems may explain the joint eruptions of both Agung and Batur in 1963 and may present an additional volcanic hazard to consider for Bali.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277556/original/file-20190603-69063-111aya0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277556/original/file-20190603-69063-111aya0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277556/original/file-20190603-69063-111aya0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277556/original/file-20190603-69063-111aya0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277556/original/file-20190603-69063-111aya0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277556/original/file-20190603-69063-111aya0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277556/original/file-20190603-69063-111aya0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277556/original/file-20190603-69063-111aya0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Intrusion of molten rock (magma) between the neighbouring volcanoes of Agung and Batur on Bali that was responsible for 2017 pre-eruptive seismic swarm at Agung.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08564-9">Albino et al., 2019</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117899/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Heather Handley receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is affiliated with the Women in Earth and Environmental Sciences Australasia Network (WOMEESA) and the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior (IAVCEI).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christina Magill is affiliated with the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior (IAVCEI) and the IAVCEI Commission on Statistics in Volcanology (COSIV). She has previously developed volcanic loss models for industry partners.</span></em></p>
Volcanic ash is made of tiny crystal and rock fragments that during an eruption can reach as high as the cruising altitude of commercial aircraft, and that’s a concern for airlines.
Heather Handley, Associate Professor in Volcanology and Geochemistry, Macquarie University
Christina Magill, Senior Lecturer, Department of Environmental Sciences, Macquarie University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/116671
2019-05-08T08:26:17Z
2019-05-08T08:26:17Z
Passenger planes need enough cabin crew to operate all the exits in an emergency
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273196/original/file-20190507-103082-jlw710.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C243%2C2814%2C1742&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cabin crew can be lifesavers in any emergency.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/ChameleonsEye </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The crash of Aeroflot flight SU1492 in Moscow raises concerns about cabin safety in terms of the number of crew needed in an emergency.</p>
<p>The Sukhoi Superjet-100 aircraft was <a href="https://www.aeroflot.ru/ru-en/news/61325">carrying 73 passengers and five crew members</a> when it burst into flames at Moscow airport on Sunday. At least 41 people are <a href="https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/incidents/passengers-killed-in-fiery-aeroplane-accident-at-moscows-sheremetyevo-airport/news-story/f8776fb928df225becb301340073f97a">reported to have died</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/around-50-of-homes-in-sydney-melbourne-and-brisbane-have-the-oldest-nbn-technology-115131">Around 50% of homes in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane have the oldest NBN technology</a>
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<p>What happened in the Aeroflot accident and evacuation is now subject to investigation. But what about the broader question of cabin crew safety this incident raises?</p>
<h2>Cabin crew numbers</h2>
<p>In 2010 the Australian Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-02-16/aviation-body-defends-cabin-crew-cutbacks/332908">mooted changes</a> to reduce cabin crew numbers from a minimum ratio of 1 for every 36 passengers to 1 per 50 passengers.</p>
<p>The 1/50 had been global standard for years, but until 2010 Australia had the higher standard of 1/36 (since the inception of the jet age). It’s reasonable to assume the Aeroflot aircraft would have been operating under the same international 1/50 regulation.</p>
<p>In 2011 an <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House_of_Representatives_Committees?url=ic/cabincrew/index.htm">inquiry into cabin crew numbers</a> was set up by the Australian Government’s House Standing Committee on Infrastructure and Communications.</p>
<p>In submissions, <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House_of_Representatives_Committees?url=ic/cabincrew/subs/sub004.pdf">Qantas</a> and others argued that 1/50 was the global standard – despite the fact we already had a higher standard.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House_of_Representatives_Committees?url=ic/cabincrew/subs/sub010.pdf">Flight Attendants’ Association of Australia</a> and the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House_of_Representatives_Committees?url=ic/cabincrew/subs/sub009.pdf">Australian & International Pilots’ Association</a> were among those calling for no change.</p>
<h2>Evacuation tests</h2>
<p>The argument made by those advocating for change from 1/36 to 1/50 was that certification by the regulatory authority in the country of aircraft manufacture required a full evacuation demonstration to be successfully carried out by that manufacturer.</p>
<p>The demonstration had to prove that a full complement of passengers and crew could successfully evacuate the aircraft in 90 seconds.</p>
<p>Additionally, for many years in Australia the civil aviation regulator, now CASA, required an additional partial evacuation demonstration be conducted by the airline wanting to introduce the new aircraft into service.</p>
<p>That demonstration had to show the airline’s own crew could evacuate the aircraft with half the cabin crew complement with half a load of passengers and through half of the doors in 90 seconds.</p>
<p>But the potentially flawed part of that argument was these evacuation demonstrations were carried out with the aircraft intact, sitting evenly on its wheels with no real emergency, no fire, smoke or obstructions in the cabin, no real threat of death adding dire urgency, and no panic among the passengers.</p>
<p>In my experience, they don’t really test how the passengers will react or the crew will function under the severe stress of an emergency like the case in Russia with the Aeroflot aircraft fire.</p>
<p>The Russian crash also shows that the 90-second time standard needs to be reviewed. Aeroflot <a href="https://www.aeroflot.ru/ru-en/news/61325">says the evacuation</a> of the Sukkoi aircraft took only 55 seconds, through only half the doors, and still more than half the passengers didn’t get out.</p>
<h2>A change in the ratio</h2>
<p>The report of the Standing Committee inquiry actually <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House_of_Representatives_Committees?url=ic/cabincrew/report/prelims.htm">recommended keeping the 1/36 ratio</a> but the government <a href="https://infrastructure.gov.au/aviation/publications/files/Att-A-Cabin-Crew-Ratios.pdf">rejected this, saying</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<blockquote>
<p>The unequivocal advice from both CASA and OTS (Office of Transport Security) is that having a one cabin crew member to every fifty passenger seats ratio in Australia does not reduce the safety or security of domestic aircraft operations. </p>
</blockquote>
</blockquote>
<p>On flights with less than 216 passengers, CASA has been <a href="https://www.casa.gov.au/standard-page/project-os-0901-review-cabin-crew-ratios-set-out-cao-20163">allowing some airlines</a> to operate on the 1/50 ratio since 2006, although the appropriate legislation has still to be changed to reflect this.</p>
<p>The real issue in play when the cabin crew ratio was being changed in Australia, was the Australian airlines were at a competitive disadvantage against internationals operating into Australia, so the Australian airlines wanted parity.</p>
<p>I can see the commercial argument. But in my 40 years working in air safety, it was the only time I’d seen airlines openly argue a position for what was actually a lower standard of safety than already in place.</p>
<h2>How many exits?</h2>
<p>One of the serious problems that resulted from the cabin crew ratio rule change that went under the regulatory radar is that now on 100 to 149 seat aircraft, only three cabin crew are mandated.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273278/original/file-20190508-183089-1r74ock.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273278/original/file-20190508-183089-1r74ock.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273278/original/file-20190508-183089-1r74ock.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273278/original/file-20190508-183089-1r74ock.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273278/original/file-20190508-183089-1r74ock.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273278/original/file-20190508-183089-1r74ock.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273278/original/file-20190508-183089-1r74ock.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273278/original/file-20190508-183089-1r74ock.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Emergency exits left and right.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Chatree</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But such aircraft can have four main cabin doors that can be used as emergency exits in the case of an accident.</p>
<p>So now on those aircraft there is one door, front or rear dependent on airline procedures, without a cabin crew member stationed at it to operate the door and control the evacuation there in an emergency.</p>
<p>The airline procedures assign responsibility for operation of that door and the one on the opposite side of the cabin to the one cabin crew member.</p>
<p>In my opinion this is a serious reduction in safety. There is little doubt that in an emergency of the type suffered by the Sukkoi Superjet, the one cabin crew member would have no hope of operating two exits with the passengers panicking and pressing to get out.</p>
<h2>Lives at risk?</h2>
<p>I believe lives will be lost in future because of the rule changes.</p>
<p>Consider an aircraft operating in Australia that had between 100 and 149 seats – under the current rules it would have only three flight attendants.</p>
<p>If a similar accident to that of the Aeroflot aircraft happened, the two rear exits would be blocked by fire. (The flight attendant at the rear of the crashed aircraft <a href="http://tass.com/emergencies/1057052">reportedly died</a> trying to carry out their duties at the rear exits. </p>
<p>If there had been only one cabin crew member stationed at the front of the aircraft, not an unusual circumstance now, it is very possible that only one forward exit would be promptly opened. That would seriously impact the number of passengers who would escape through the one exit before the cabin was fully involved in the fire with smoke and flames?</p>
<p>The Sukkoi accident shines a light on the decisions that were made at the time of the Australian rule changes.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-we-bend-it-the-challenge-for-samsung-and-others-to-make-flexible-technology-116270">Can we bend it? The challenge for Samsung and others to make flexible technology</a>
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<p>The rules need to be changed again to mandate a cabin crew member for every floor level exit. So in a 100 to 149 seat aircraft with four entry/exit doors, the minimum cabin crew complement would be four, not three.</p>
<p>Then the 1/50 ratio could then apply for any extra cabin crew once all floor level exits are staffed.</p>
<p>In my opinion this rule change is need internationally, not just in Australia. The International Civil Aviation Organisation needs to act, before more lives are lost.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116671/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geoffrey Dell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Cabin crew play a vital role in helping passengers during any aircraft emergency. But how many do you really need on a flight?
Geoffrey Dell, Associate Professor/Discipline Leader Accident Investigation and Forensics, CQUniversity Australia
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/114394
2019-04-08T10:42:55Z
2019-04-08T10:42:55Z
Too many airplane systems rely on too few sensors
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267199/original/file-20190402-177175-6046gt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=291%2C0%2C4700%2C1661&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Planes have many sensors, supplying all kinds of useful data.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/business-jet-airplane-gear-down-landing-1310559680?src=unD8nxhH5kTmylCMzugfLg-1-92">vaalaa/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/boeing-simulation-error.html">apparent connection</a> between fatal airplane <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/03/13/world/boeing-737-crash-investigation.html">crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia</a> centers around the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/sensor-cited-as-potential-factor-in-boeing-crashes-draws-scrutiny/2019/03/17/5ecf0b0e-4682-11e9-aaf8-4512a6fe3439_story.html">failure of a single sensor</a>. I know what that’s like: A few years ago, while I was flying a Cessna 182-RG from Albany, New York, to Fort Meade, Maryland, my airspeed indicator showed that I was flying at a speed so slow that my plane was at risk of no longer generating enough lift to stay in the air.</p>
<p>Had I trusted my airspeed sensor, I would have pushed the plane’s nose down in an attempt to regain speed, and possibly put too much strain on the aircraft’s frame, or gotten dangerously close to the ground. But even small aircraft are packed with sensors: While worried about my airspeed, I noticed that my plane was staying at the same altitude, the engine was generating the same amount of power, the wings were meeting the air at a constant angle and I was still moving over the ground at the same speed I had been before the airspeed allegedly dropped.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267200/original/file-20190402-177175-m0aof4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267200/original/file-20190402-177175-m0aof4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267200/original/file-20190402-177175-m0aof4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=329&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267200/original/file-20190402-177175-m0aof4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=329&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267200/original/file-20190402-177175-m0aof4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=329&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267200/original/file-20190402-177175-m0aof4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267200/original/file-20190402-177175-m0aof4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267200/original/file-20190402-177175-m0aof4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Cessna 182 in flight.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/131806380@N05/17246847205">Rob Hodgkins/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>So instead of overstressing and potentially crashing my plane, I was able to fix the problematic sensor and continue my flight without further incident. As a result, I started investigating how <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/MAES.2017.150242">computers can use data from different aircraft sensors</a> to help pilots understand whether there’s a real emergency happening, or something much less severe.</p>
<p>Boeing’s response to its crashes has included designing a software update that will <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/boeing-simulation-error.html">rely on two sensors instead of one</a>. That may not be enough. </p>
<h2>Cross-checking sensor data</h2>
<p>As a plane defies gravity, aerodynamic principles expressed as mathematical formulas govern its flight. Most of an aircraft’s sensors are intended to monitor elements of those formulas, to reassure pilots that everything is as it should be – or to alert them that something has gone wrong.</p>
<p>My team developed <a href="http://wcl.cs.rpi.edu/pilots/">a computer system</a> that looks at information from many sensors, comparing their readings to each other and to the relevant mathematical formulas. This system can detect inconsistent data, indicate which sensors most likely failed and, in certain circumstances, use other data to estimate the correct values that these sensors should be delivering.</p>
<p>For instance, my Cessna encountered problems when the primary airspeed sensor, called a “<a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-is-a-pitot-tube/">pitot tube</a>,” froze in cold air. Other sensors on board gather related information: GPS receivers measure how quickly the aircraft is covering ground. Wind speed data is available from computer models that forecast weather prior to the flight. Onboard computers can calculate an estimated airspeed by combining GPS data with information on the wind speed and direction.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266148/original/file-20190327-139341-ufpu9u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266148/original/file-20190327-139341-ufpu9u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266148/original/file-20190327-139341-ufpu9u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266148/original/file-20190327-139341-ufpu9u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266148/original/file-20190327-139341-ufpu9u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266148/original/file-20190327-139341-ufpu9u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266148/original/file-20190327-139341-ufpu9u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266148/original/file-20190327-139341-ufpu9u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Using information on ground speed and the current wind conditions, a computer can estimate the plane’s airspeed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shigeru Imai and Carlos Varela</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If the computer’s estimated airspeed agrees with the sensor readings, most likely everything is fine. If they disagree, then something is wrong – but what? It turns out that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/MAES.2017.150242">these calculations disagree in different ways</a>, depending on which one – or more – of the GPS, wind data or airspeed sensors is wrong.</p>
<h2>A test with real data</h2>
<p>We tested our computer program with real data from the 2009 crash of Air France Flight 447. The post-crash investigation revealed that <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2012/07/05/156303873/crash-report-confirm-air-france-447-crashed-due-to-faulty-sensors-pilot-error">three different pitot tubes</a> froze up, <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/death-in-the-atlantic-the-last-four-minutes-of-air-france-flight-447-a-679980.html">delivering an erroneous airspeed reading</a> and triggering a chain of events ending in the plane plunging into the Atlantic Ocean, killing 228 passengers and crew.</p>
<p>The flight data showed that when the pitot tubes froze, they suddenly stopped registering airspeed as 480 knots, and instead reported the plane was going through the air at 180 knots – so slow the autopilot turned itself off and alerted the human pilots there was a problem.</p>
<p>But the onboard GPS recorded that the plane was traveling across the ground at 490 knots. And computer models of weather indicated the wind was coming from the rear of the plane at about 10 knots.</p>
<p>When we fed those data to our computer system, it <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/MAES.2017.150242">detected that the pitot tubes had failed</a>, and estimated the plane’s real airspeed within five seconds. It also detected when the pitot tubes thawed again, about 40 seconds after they froze, and was able to confirm that their readings were again reliable.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7G9FLFIdnx8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">When one sensor fails, other equipment can provide data to detect the failure and even estimate values for the failing sensor.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A different sort of test</h2>
<p>We also used our system to identify what happened to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuninter_Flight_1153">Tuninter Flight 1153</a>, which ditched into the Mediterranean Sea in 2005 on its way from Italy to Tunisia, killing 16 of the 39 people aboard.</p>
<p>After the accident, the investigation revealed that maintenance workers had mistakenly <a href="https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/tuninter-atr-72-had-been-fitted-with-wrong-fuel-gaug-201462/">installed the wrong fuel quantity indicator</a> on the plane, so it reported 2,700 kg of fuel was in the tanks, when the plane was really carrying only 550 kg. Human pilots didn’t notice the error, and the plane ran out of fuel.</p>
<p>Fuel is heavy, though, and its weight affects the performance of an aircraft. A plane with too little fuel would have handled differently than one with the right amount. To calculate whether the plane was behaving as it should, with the right amount of fuel on board, we used the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10586-017-1291-8">aerodynamic mathematical relationship between airspeed and lift</a>. When a plane is in level flight, lift equals weight. Everything else being the same, a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/MAES.2017.150242">heavier plane should have been going slower</a> than the Tuninter plane was. </p>
<p>Our program models only cruise phases of flight, in which the plane is in steady, level flight – not accelerating or changing altitude. But it would have been sufficient to detect that the plane was too light and alert the pilots, who could have turned around or landed elsewhere to refuel. Adding information about other phases of flight could improve the system’s accuracy and responsiveness.</p>
<h2>What about the Boeing 737 Max 8 crashes?</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266135/original/file-20190327-139371-1x1l6r9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266135/original/file-20190327-139371-1x1l6r9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266135/original/file-20190327-139371-1x1l6r9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=185&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266135/original/file-20190327-139371-1x1l6r9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=185&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266135/original/file-20190327-139371-1x1l6r9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=185&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266135/original/file-20190327-139371-1x1l6r9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=232&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266135/original/file-20190327-139371-1x1l6r9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=232&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266135/original/file-20190327-139371-1x1l6r9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=232&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The angle of attack describes how the wings meet the oncoming air.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Airfoil_angle_of_attack.jpg">J Doug McLean/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The full range of data about Lion Air 610 and Ethiopian Airlines 302 is not yet available to the public, but early reports suggest there was a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/04/world/asia/ethiopia-crash-boeing.html">problem with one of the angle-of-attack sensors</a>. My research team developed a method to check that device’s accuracy based on the plane’s airspeed.</p>
<p>We used aerodynamics and a flight simulator to measure how variations in the angle of attack – the steepness with which the wings meet the oncoming air – changed the horizontal and vertical speed of a Cessna 172. The data were consistent with the performance of an actual Cessna 172 in flight. Using our model and system, we can distinguish between an actual emergency – a dangerously high angle of attack – and a failing sensor providing erroneous data.</p>
<p><iframe id="J35Sz" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/J35Sz/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The actual numbers for a Boeing 737 Max 8 would be different, of course, but the principle is still the same, using the mathematical relationship between angle of attack and airspeed to double-check each other, and to identify faulty sensors.</p>
<h2>Better still</h2>
<p>As my team continues to develop flight data analysis software, we’re also working on supplying it with better data. One potential source could be <a href="https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1816307&HistoricalAwards=false">letting airplanes communicate directly with each other</a> about weather and wind conditions in specific locations at particular altitudes. We are also working <a href="https://news.rpi.edu/approach/2019/01/31/grant-awarded-to-increase-intelligence-in-aerospace-systems/">on methods to precisely describe safe operating conditions</a> for flight software that relies on sensor data.</p>
<p>Sensors do fail, but even when that happens, automated systems can be <a href="https://theconversation.com/your-next-pilot-could-be-drone-software-92330">safer and more efficient than human pilots</a>. As flight becomes <a href="https://theconversation.com/despite-consumer-worries-the-future-of-aviation-will-be-more-automated-113807">more automated and increasingly reliant on sensors</a>, it is imperative that flight systems cross-check data from different sensor types, to safeguard against otherwise potentially fatal sensor faults.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114394/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carlos Varela currently receives funding from the Air Force Office of Scientific Research (DDDAS Grant No. FA9550-19-1-0054) and the National Science Foundation (CISE Grant No. CNS-1816307).</span></em></p>
A pilot and researcher knows that airplanes are full of sensors – and finds a way onboard computers can use the data to detect equipment failure and tell pilots what’s a real emergency and what’s not.
Carlos Varela, Associate Professor of Computer Science, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/113807
2019-03-25T10:41:48Z
2019-03-25T10:41:48Z
Despite consumer worries, the future of aviation will be more automated
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265140/original/file-20190321-93063-7orhiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3000%2C2002&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Human pilots, surrounded by automation.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/hong-kong-china-may-16-2014-210945133">Sorbis/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the wake of the Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines crashes of Boeing 737 Max planes, people are thinking about how much of their air travel is handled by <a href="https://theconversation.com/your-next-pilot-could-be-drone-software-92330">software and automated systems</a> – as opposed to the friendly pilots sitting in the cockpit.</p>
<p>Older commercial airliners, such as the Beechcraft 1900, which are <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beechcraft_1900#Civilian_operators">still in service</a> mostly as small commuter aircraft, often do not have any autopilot installed. By contrast, modern commercial airliners have automated systems that can augment or even replace pilots’ performance, managing engine power, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/columnist/cox/2014/02/09/autoland-low-visibility-landings/5283931/">controlling and navigating the aircraft</a>, and in some cases, even completing landings.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/0C71_inm8h0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A flight simulator program shows how a plane can help land itself.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Investigations are probing the <a href="https://theconversation.com/automated-control-system-caused-ethiopia-crash-flight-data-suggests-113688">possible role of automated systems</a> in the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/09/world/asia/air-lion-crash-610.html">2018 Lion Air Flight 610</a> crash in Indonesia and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/10/ethiopian-flight-302-second-new-boeing-737-max-8-to-crash-in-four-months">Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302</a> crash in March 2019. Regardless of those findings, the public may not know how much automation already is part of flying today – nor how much more automated commercial flight will become in the years ahead.</p>
<p>Our research has examined consumers’ willingness to interact with automated systems on all types of vehicles, including aircraft. Most recently, we have begun looking into people’s interest in what is being called “<a href="https://www.nasa.gov/uamgc">urban air mobility</a>.” This concept involves a system of small two- to four-passenger <a href="https://www.airbus-sv.com/projects/1">fully autonomous air taxis</a> that could carry passengers on short trips throughout cities <a href="https://www.uber.com/us/en/elevate/">without a human pilot on board</a>.</p>
<h2>Side effects of highly automated systems</h2>
<p>One problem that arises in planes that have highly automated systems is that the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1518%2F001872095779064555">pilots can lose track of what’s actually happening</a>. This is presumably what happened in 2009 when <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447">Air France Flight 447</a> crashed in the Atlantic Ocean on its way from Rio de Janeiro to Paris. Airspeed sensors failed, causing the <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20120711071354/http://www.bea.aero/docspa/2009/f-cp090601.en/pdf/f-cp090601.en.pdf">autopilot to turn itself off</a>, but the pilots weren’t able to figure out what was happening or how to recover. </p>
<p>Some experts also believe that a pilot’s lack of awareness was a factor in the 2009 crash of <a href="https://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20090212-0">Colgan Air Flight 3407</a> outside Buffalo, New York. While approaching the landing, pilots may have missed the fact that the plane was slowing down too much, and again didn’t realize what was happening until it was too late.</p>
<p>Pilots who spend a lot of time in the cockpits of planes with highly automated systems may also lose <a href="https://www.mitre.org/publications/technical-papers/lessons-lost-what-we-learned-about-automation-in-aviation-can-be">some sharpness at flying planes</a> on their own. The average pilot of a Boeing or Airbus commercial plane manually flies the plane for <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/travel-truths/confessions-of-an-airline-pilot">between three and six minutes of the whole flight</a> – mostly around takeoff, the initial climb to about 1,500 feet, and then landing. </p>
<h2>Industry supports automation</h2>
<p>Airlines and manufacturers say they would save money and alleviate the current <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-is-facing-a-serious-shortage-of-airline-pilots-95699">shortage of qualified pilots</a> if they could reduce – or even <a href="https://theconversation.com/your-next-pilot-could-be-drone-software-92330">eliminate</a> – the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-airshow-single-pilot/two-become-one-planemakers-work-on-tech-to-cut-pilot-numbers-idUSKBN1K829N">number of pilots in the cockpit</a>. Redesigning the front of the aircraft to be more aerodynamic could save even more money, if it didn’t need to have <a href="https://jalopnik.com/airbus-wants-to-take-the-cockpit-out-of-the-cockpit-of-1598171449">room for pilots</a>, or could move them to another part of the aircraft.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265210/original/file-20190321-93054-1ssyj60.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265210/original/file-20190321-93054-1ssyj60.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265210/original/file-20190321-93054-1ssyj60.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265210/original/file-20190321-93054-1ssyj60.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265210/original/file-20190321-93054-1ssyj60.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265210/original/file-20190321-93054-1ssyj60.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=687&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265210/original/file-20190321-93054-1ssyj60.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=687&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265210/original/file-20190321-93054-1ssyj60.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=687&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">With automation, pilots could be located elsewhere in the aircraft.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://patents.google.com/patent/US9302780B2/en">U.S. Patent and Trademark Office</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Several companies are developing fully autonomous aircraft, including Amazon and UPS, which want to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-and-ups-are-betting-big-on-drone-delivery-2018-3">use them for deliveries</a>. Boeing and Airbus are designing self-flying air taxis, which would be used for flights of about 30 minutes and carry between two and four passengers, and have <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/23/tech/boeing-flying-car/index.html">tested</a> <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/1/16961688/airbus-vahana-evtol-first-test-flight">prototypes</a>. A company called Volocopter has been testing <a href="https://www.engadget.com/2018/10/24/volocopter-air-taxi-test-singapore-autonomous-drone-helicopter/">autonomous air taxis in Germany since 2016</a> and plans to conduct test flights in downtown Singapore this year. <a href="https://www.uber.com/us/en/elevate/">Ridesharing giant Uber</a>, helicopter maker Bell and many other companies are also expressing interest in similar vehicles.</p>
<h2>Consumer willingness to fly in autonomous aircraft</h2>
<p>No matter how far industry progress goes, the key to autonomous flight will be its customers. We have been <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ov4kMJoAAAAJ&hl=en">among the scholars</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=6T1fSdgAAAAJ">who have studied</a> how willing people are to fly in self-piloting aircraft.</p>
<p>Most of the results suggest that consumers don’t know how much of aviation is already automated. Survey participants tend to think pilots fly manually much <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/travel-truths/confessions-of-an-airline-pilot/">more than they actually do</a>. </p>
<p>In a study we conducted in 2014, people were <a href="https://doi.org/10.15394/ijaaa.2014.1004">much more willing to fly</a> in planes with a human pilot in the cockpit – and quite unwilling to fly with either a human flying the plane remotely or aboard a fully autonomous plane.</p>
<p><iframe id="63WY6" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/63WY6/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Of course, some consumers are willing to fly in fully autonomous aircraft. In a larger study in 2018, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2018.12.008">just under 30 percent</a> of U.S. consumers indicated they would be willing to fly on an autonomous airliner. These are the early adopters, who tend to be people who are familiar with automation and view flying on an autonomous airliner <a href="https://www.interaction-design.org/literature/article/understanding-early-adopters-and-customer-adoption-patterns">as a fun activity</a>. People who are happy about the prospect of increased automation also tend to be more willing to fly on smaller autonomous air taxis.</p>
<p>However, most people are not ready to take fully autonomous commercial flights. Approximately 60 percent of passengers in our study said they were unwilling to fly on an autonomous commercial airliner.</p>
<p>We believe that lack of knowledge about automation is one of the critical factors here, and that the public <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2018.04.002">would feel better</a> about automated flying if they knew more about the benefits of automation – such as extremely reliable automated warning systems to prevent <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traffic_collision_avoidance_system">mid-air collisions</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_proximity_warning_system">crashes</a>.</p>
<h2>What the future entails</h2>
<p>Automation is not going away. In fact, by all accounts, it is <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/boeing-autonomous-plane-autopilot/">becoming more prevalent in the cockpit</a>. We fully expect autonomous flights to become commonplace in the next few decades. </p>
<p>Despite the notable crashes involving autopilots, the industry as a whole appears to believe that the automation of the future will be safe, or at least safer, for the flying public. Human error remains <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-five-most-common-reasons-for-airliner-disasters-50100">the most common cause of aircraft accidents</a>, and people are prone to make the same mistakes again. They also may have trouble taking over from automation if the computers run into problems. Automated systems, however, can be <a href="https://theconversation.com/your-next-pilot-could-be-drone-software-92330">reprogrammed not to make the same errors</a> a second time.</p>
<p>Large commercial airplanes will likely go pilotless later than smaller private aircraft, because of the amount of time and money required to produce them. But smaller air taxis simply are not economically viable if they require a human pilot on board. As aviation automation engineering and technology continues to advance toward full automation, companies and customers alike will need to evaluate the risks and benefits, financially, in terms of safety – and emotionally.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113807/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Rice has received funding from the United States Air Force and the Federal Aviation Administration. The opinions in this article are solely the opinions of the authors. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott R. Winter has received funding from the Federal Aviation Administration and Department of Transportation. The opinions in this article are solely the opinions of the authors.</span></em></p>
Pilots get lots of assistance from automation as it is. In the future, they’ll get even more.
Stephen Rice, Associate Professor of Human Factors, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
Scott Winter, Assistant Professor of Graduate Studies, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/113833
2019-03-20T06:36:28Z
2019-03-20T06:36:28Z
Boeing 737 MAX: after two fatal crashes, an expert explains the issues
<p>The Boeing 737 is <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-737-history-photos-2018-3?r=US&IR=T#in-1981-boeing-launched-the-second-generation-737-dubbed-the-classic-the-new-planes-would-come-with-cfm56-high-bypass-turbofan-engines-that-were-quieter-more-efficient-and-more-powerful-than-the-units-found-on-the-dash-100200-13">the most produced commercial aeroplane in history</a>: over 10,000 have been built since it first flew in 1967, with thousands more on order. Even the UK’s Royal Air Force is to put them into service <a href="https://www.raf.mod.uk/aircraft/p-8a/">as the P8a Poseidon</a>.</p>
<p>An aeroplane which flies that much will have accidents. The 737 has had over 200 that have led to the loss of the aeroplane, <a href="https://aviation-safety.net/database/types/Boeing-737-series/index">resulting in over 5,000 fatalities</a> over its 51 years. </p>
<p>But statistically, this nonetheless is a very safe aeroplane. In the newer “Next Generation” 737, you’d have to take about a million flights to reach a 25% chance of being present at a “hull loss” accident (“hull loss” doesn’t even mean fatalities, just that the aeroplane is <a href="https://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20081220-0">beyond economic repair</a>).</p>
<p>By comparison, the British annual average for road traffic fatalities <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Road_accident_fatalities_-_statistics_by_type_of_vehicle#Ratio_per_inhabitants:_the_Netherlands.2C_Sweden_and_the_United_Kingdom_appear_safest">is 13 per million inhabitants</a>. In Britain, which has some of the world’s safest roads, your chance of dying as a car passenger per year are about four times greater than being in a serious accident if you fly in a Boeing 737 every month. </p>
<h2>Evolution</h2>
<p>Unsurprisingly, the Boeing 737, which has been with us for nearly half the time powered flight has existed, has seen many upgrades. The first model – the 737-100 – arrived in 1967, while the 737 MAX series entered service in 2016. So far, nearly 400 of the MAX aircraft have been delivered and over 5,000 ordered.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264589/original/file-20190319-60982-1gilmo9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264589/original/file-20190319-60982-1gilmo9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264589/original/file-20190319-60982-1gilmo9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264589/original/file-20190319-60982-1gilmo9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264589/original/file-20190319-60982-1gilmo9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264589/original/file-20190319-60982-1gilmo9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264589/original/file-20190319-60982-1gilmo9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264589/original/file-20190319-60982-1gilmo9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One of the earliest models, a Boeing 737-200, when it was in service with Ryanair.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Guy Brian Gratton</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Over its lifetime, the 737 has stretched from 29 metres to 44 metres long, fuel capacity has risen from 14.7 tonnes to 21.3 tonnes, and passenger seats have increased from 118 to 230. With these developments have come demands for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-737-history-photos-2018-3?r=US&IR=T#in-1981-boeing-launched-the-second-generation-737-dubbed-the-classic-the-new-planes-would-come-with-cfm56-high-bypass-turbofan-engines-that-were-quieter-more-efficient-and-more-powerful-than-the-units-found-on-the-dash-100200-13">greater safety</a>, reduced noise, particulate and <a href="https://www.aerosociety.com/get-involved/specialist-groups/air-transport/greener-by-design/">greenhouse gas emissions</a>, and lower running costs. So while all 737s are <a href="https://rgl.faa.gov/Regulatory_and_Guidance_Library/rgMakeModel.nsf/0/179cdacd213801658625832a006b2e37/%24FILE/A16WE_Rev_64.pdf">certified as a single aeroplane type</a>, the changes have been massive.</p>
<p>Most recently, the big push has been to reduce fuel consumption. For both economic and environmental reasons, this led to the <a href="https://www.boeing.com/commercial/737max/">latest 737 MAX 8</a> models – <a href="https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/passenger-aircraft/a320-family/a320neo.html">along with the competitor Airbus A320 Neo</a> – being fitted with new, larger and more efficient <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CFM_International_LEAP">CFM Leap</a> engines. These must be mounted higher and further forward than previously, creating a handling problem that wasn’t unique to this aeroplane, but had to be addressed.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264590/original/file-20190319-60964-10sf1vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264590/original/file-20190319-60964-10sf1vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264590/original/file-20190319-60964-10sf1vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264590/original/file-20190319-60964-10sf1vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264590/original/file-20190319-60964-10sf1vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264590/original/file-20190319-60964-10sf1vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264590/original/file-20190319-60964-10sf1vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264590/original/file-20190319-60964-10sf1vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One of the newer Boeing 737s, a 737-800 ‘Next Gen’ model ironically showing off a much older heritage livery for Dutch Airline KLM.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Guy Brian Gratton</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Safety</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.boeing.com/commercial/aeromagazine/aero_12/whatisaoa.pdf">Angle of attack</a> is the angle between the wing chord (an imaginary line between the leading and trailing edges of the wing) and the airflow. To generate lift, this is typically around two degrees in cruising flight. But to create lift at low airspeeds during take-off, landing and some manoeuvres, it must be much higher – often more than ten degrees.</p>
<p>If the angle of attack is too great, the aeroplane loses control – <a href="http://www.spacesafetymagazine.com/aerospace-engineering/spacecraft-design/what-is-a-stall/">or “stalls”</a>. This has nothing to do with stalling an engine and will usually cause a sudden descent. The larger, repositioned engines initially created a handling problem at a high angle of attack, particularly at low speeds, which could pitch the aeroplane nose-up into an even greater angle of attack, potentially worsening the loss of control.</p>
<p>Boeing addressed this by introducing an automated system called <a href="https://theaircurrent.com/aviation-safety/what-is-the-boeing-737-max-maneuvering-characteristics-augmentation-system-mcas-jt610/">Manoeuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS)</a>. This automatically forces the nose down from high angles of attack, removing the aeroplane from the stall condition. It does this by rotating the tailplane, effectively changing the shape of the aeroplane. This was necessary – stalling under these circumstances has been a serious, even fatal, problem in some <a href="https://www.flightglobal.com/pdfarchive/view/1963/1963%20-%201939.html">previous airliners</a>.</p>
<p>So far so good. But then we hit a problem which is alleged to have contributed to the October 2018 <a href="https://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20181029-0">Lion Air 737 MAX 8 crash in Indonesia</a>. While this aircraft had the MCAS system, <a href="https://www.nola.com/business/2019/03/at-tense-meeting-with-boeing-pilots-angry-about-company-not-disclosing-737s-software.html">the pilots allegedly didn’t know about it</a>. It has been said a decision had been made <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/u-s-pilots-flying-737-max-werent-told-about-new-automatic-systems-change-linked-to-lion-air-crash/">not to include the system in pilot training</a>, in particular that if the system received incorrect signals from the aeroplane’s angle of attack sensors the aeroplane could pitch steeply nose-down into a potentially unrecoverable dive.</p>
<p>All pilots train to recognise and deal with a wide range of instrument and equipment failures. On my own commercial pilots licence test, I had several real and simulated instrument failures, and was expected to deal with them while continuing the flight; all commercial pilots are <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcB0i7FpmBY">reassessed on this regularly</a>.</p>
<p>But pilots can best deal with failures they’ve been trained for. We don’t yet have full reports on the Lion Air crash, nor on the more recent <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/10/world/africa/ethiopian-airlines-plane-crash.html">Ethiopian Airlines crash</a> of another 737 MAX. But <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-13/lion-air-crash-more-pilot-training-needed-on-boeing-737-max/10493470">there is growing evidence</a> that the crew didn’t fully understand the MCAS system, and that the system could malfunction <a href="https://www.aviationtoday.com/2018/11/20/lion-air-boeing-737-investigation-places-flight-controls-focus/">when a single instrument feeding it information fails</a>. The aeroplane could allegedly put itself into a steep dive due to an instrument failure, and the pilots perhaps weren’t fully trained to <a href="https://www.aviationtoday.com/2018/11/20/lion-air-boeing-737-investigation-places-flight-controls-focus/">recognise and correct for that</a>.</p>
<h2>What next?</h2>
<p>In a very new aircraft type, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/10/world/africa/boeing-737-max-8-crash.html">339 people have died in two, apparently similar, accidents</a> – this is intolerable. Fortunately, the aviation industry, that’s mindset often goes back to <a href="https://richardedwards.info/2013/02/24/the-de-havilland-comet-air-disasters-revealed/">the 1950s Comet disasters</a>, is extremely prompt in dealing with serious safety issues.</p>
<p>Around the world, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ethiopia-crash-countries-that-have-grounded-the-boeing-737-max-2019-3?r=US&IR=T">aeroplanes of this type were grounded</a> within a few days, and will remain so until <a href="http://www.boeing.com/commercial/737max/737-max-update.page">Boeing and its stakeholders</a> find and certify solutions to both the aircraft control software and the pilot training issues.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264591/original/file-20190319-60975-izhw7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264591/original/file-20190319-60975-izhw7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264591/original/file-20190319-60975-izhw7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264591/original/file-20190319-60975-izhw7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264591/original/file-20190319-60975-izhw7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264591/original/file-20190319-60975-izhw7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264591/original/file-20190319-60975-izhw7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264591/original/file-20190319-60975-izhw7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">American budget airline giant Southwest has built its business model around the Boeing 737, currently operating 750 of them. The FAA has grounded their 35 737 MAX aeroplanes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Guy Brian Gratton</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These events show the aviation industry at both its best, and worst. It’s right that manufacturers and airlines should be seeking more efficient, safer aircraft. But making progress at an acceptable cost could potentially risk corners being cut.</p>
<p>In the US, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has been accused in the past <a href="http://fortune.com/2019/03/18/boeing-safety-vetting-faa/">of delegating too much oversight of their own work to Boeing</a>, and those of us in this community are concerned that when governments seek to reduce budgets, aviation authorities may not be well enough resourced to adequately do their jobs.</p>
<p>Additionally, any aviation company may necessarily suffer conflict between engineers and pilots, whose objective is to create the best and safest product, and business managers, who must ensure profitability. </p>
<p>So what now? The 737 MAX will remain grounded while Boeing develops a “software fix” that eliminates this potential problem, and then works with the FAA and international authorities to certify it. There should also be new MCAS training that all 737 MAX pilots around the world will receive before they fly the aeroplane again. Indeed, this will hopefully also lead to a broader debate about the level of training provided to airline pilots.</p>
<p>After these two tragedies there will likely be a number of court cases. The families will rightly want closure. But we also need to ensure that similar disasters don’t happen in the future – and this involves aviation professionals working to find new safety solutions. Focusing too much on legal outcomes could <a href="https://airlines.iata.org/analysis/safety-the-blame-game">potentially prevent the best safety outcomes from being pursued</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113833/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Guy Gratton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
The Boeing 737 is the most produced commercial aeroplane in history – so what might have gone wrong?
Guy Gratton, Visiting professor, Cranfield University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/113580
2019-03-14T18:09:24Z
2019-03-14T18:09:24Z
Boeing 737 Max: air safety, market pressures and cockpit technology
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264097/original/file-20190315-28468-g56rpd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C29%2C1500%2C983&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Boeing 737 taxies at Manchester Airport in the United Kingdom.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pixabay.com/photos/boeing-737-airplane-aeroplane-3917327/">nickyhardinguk/Pixabay</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Boeing 737 Max – the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/03/11/702211493/boeing-737-max-involved-in-two-crashes-is-fastest-selling-plane-in-companys-hist">fastest-selling airliner ever</a> and the heart of Boeing’s business – has been grounded worldwide <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/23/business/boeing-737-max-faa-regulation.html">since March</a>. </p>
<p>A worldwide first, the grounding is the direct consequence of two Boeing 737 Max crashes in which a total of 346 passengers and crew members died. Both occurred shortly after take-off, and the similarities between the two catastrophes raised fundamental questions about the aircraft’s safety. It was grounded by <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/nations-grounding-boeing-737-max-8-aircraft-ethiopian-airlines-11334780">nation after nation</a>, with only Canada and the United States holding out. Finally, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/13/business/canada-737-max.html">they too halted flights</a> on March 13. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF02752736">boycott by travelers</a>, a cancellation of orders, and demands for compensation by airlines could have disastrous consequences for the Seattle-based manufacturer. It also raises questions about the ever-increasing sophistication of cockpit technology.</p>
<h2>Narrow-body jet with a long history</h2>
<p>The 737 is a narrow-body, twin-jet airliner with a long history. It entered service in 1968 and over the decades, Boeing has built and sold more than 10,000, making it the best-selling airliner in history. The 737 Max, first delivered in 2017, is the fourth generation and with 370 deliveries and 5,011 more on order, it represents 64% of Boeing’s production over the next 14 years. In 2011, the company made the world’s biggest ever single sale of commercial aircraft, when Indonesia’s Lion Air committed to buy 201 Boeing 737 Max and 29 Boeing 737-900 ER for a <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3073987">total of $22 billion</a>.</p>
<p>Boeing started development of what would be the 737 Max after American Airlines, a long-time customer, opted for Airbus in July 2011. To match the energy efficiency of the 737’s direct competitor, the A320neo, Boeing decided to improve the design and placement of the 737’s engines, increasing their size and positioning them higher and further forward. The new aerodynamics and lighter materials cut fuel consumption by 14%, but also required new stability control systems and other significant changes.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/O8W3TnLnPmQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">“Max efficiency, max reliability, max passenger appeal: Boeing’s new 737 Max.”</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The 737 Max is available in four configurations, the most popular of which are the Max 8 and 9, with <a href="https://www.boeing.com/commercial/737max/">210 and 220 passengers</a>, respectively. To speed getting the aircraft to market and into the air, Boeing’s strategy was to make the new versions similar enough to the previous ones that <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-boeings-decision-to-omit-details-on-safety-system-in-lion-air-crash-from-manual-1544025884">pilots didn’t need to be retrained</a>. While this made sense as a commercial strategy, some pilots complained that the new embedded systems made the 737 Max a completely different aircraft to fly.</p>
<h2>Separate crashes, similar circumstances</h2>
<p>The first fatal 737 Max crash took place on October 29, 2018. Lion Air flight JT610 left Jakarta for Pangkai Pinang under ideal conditions. The plane was brand new and the weather good. After 11 minutes, however, the pilots reported technical problems and attempted to turn back, but in vain. The plane could not gain altitude, nosedived, and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glroNHUZD28">plunged into the Java Sea less than 15 minutes after take-off</a>. All 189 passengers and crew died.</p>
<p>The second crash occurred on March 10, 2019. That day, Ethiopian Airlines flight ET302 took off from Addis Ababa, heading for Nairobi. The plane was delivered a year earlier and given a technical check just a month before. The pilot was highly experienced, having flown more than 8,000 hours. Six minutes after take-off, however, he reported technical difficulties and asked to turn back. The request was granted, but the plane disappeared from radar. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOIfgmp5Mic">The death toll was 157</a>, including 35 different nationalities. An entire UN delegation of 19 people perished.</p>
<h2>Suspicions of sensor and software malfunctions</h2>
<p>Given the similarity of the two crashes, aviation experts consider them unlikely to be a coincidence – there had to have been a genuine, serious cause, and one could call into question certain aspects of the 737 Max’s design. Indeed, a 2018 report by US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) indicates that incidence sensors, also called angle of attack (AOA) sensors, designed to avoid stall, are suspected of being defective on at least <a href="https://www.aviationtoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2018-23-51_emergency.pdf">246 737 Max around the globe</a>. The information provided by these sensors, whose purpose is to stabilize the plane, may mistakenly cause it to nosedive.</p>
<p>In fall 2018, US 737 Max pilots registered their concerns in a <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/13/us/pilot-complaints-boeing-737-max/index.html">NASA database</a> about an autopilot anomaly that could cause the plane to nosedive. There were also complaints that the plane’s instruction manual was <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/12/pilots-boeing-737-1266090">“inadequate and almost criminally insufficient”</a>.</p>
<p>In the case of the two 737 Max 8 crashes, the “maneuvering characteristics augmentation system” (MCAS) is suspected of having failed. The preliminary report on the Lion Air crash states that the pilot was unable to overcome an <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/4706134/lion-air-jet-crash-report/">automatic nose-down command triggered more than 20 times</a>. A similar malfunction happening the day before on the same plane, yet many pilots were unaware that it could occur even when the plane is flown manually. A <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/boeing-737-indonesia-1.4895211">note issued by Boeing</a> to airlines operating the 737 Max provides guidance in the event of failure of the new safety system – the correct behavior being simply to disable it. In response to continued concerns, Boeing responded <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-to-make-key-change-in-max-cockpit-software-11552413489">announcing a patch for the MCAS</a>.</p>
<p>On March 11, Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenberg <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/ethiopia-airplane-boeing-ceo/boeing-ceo-confident-in-737-max-safety-after-second-deadly-crash-idUSKBN1QS2PJ">defended the 737 Max</a> and attempted to defuse speculation about its integrity and inherent safety. The following day, the FAA issued a statement asserting that the Max 8 and 9 <a href="https://www.faa.gov/news/updates/?newsid=93206">were both airworthy</a>. Paradoxically, the FAA simultaneously demanded that Boeing make changes to the MCAS by April at the latest. US airlines such as Southwest, United and American initially decided to continue using their 60 Boeing 737 Max, stating their confidence in the plane.</p>
<p>With more than 370 examples in service as of February 2019, tens of thousands of passengers travelled on the 737 Max every day, and many were <a href="https://academic.oup.com/epirev/article/27/1/107/520811">increasingly concerned</a>. There were reports of travelers attempting to change or cancel trips when they found out they would be flying on one, sometimes refusing to board. Hashtags such as <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/groundboeing737?src=hash">#GroundBoeing737</a> began to spread on Twitter.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1105528342000865286"}"></div></p>
<p>On Monday, March 11, a number of countries announced that they would immediately ban 737 Max flights, including <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/11/chinese-airlines-ordered-to-halt-use-of-boeing-737-max-planes-caijing.html">Ethiopia, Indonesia, and China</a>. India did so the same day, a move that affected at least <a href="https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/boeing-737-max-aircraft-grounded-by-civil-aviation-watchdog-dgca-2006656">two carriers with a total of 18 planes</a>. The FAA and the US and Canadian governments continued to assert that there was no evidence of a link between the two fatal events, nor any danger of flying the 737 Max. That changed on Wednesday, March 13, when both countries finally <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/13/business/canada-737-max.html">grounded the aircraft</a>.</p>
<h2>Distrust and cancelled orders</h2>
<p>With the 737 Max now grounded, some operators have <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/13/investing/boeing-airline-compensation/index.html">demanded compensation</a>, while others with planes on order are considering cancelling. Lion Air, which committed to buy 201 Boeing 737s in 2011, has <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-12/lion-air-suspends-delivery-of-boeing-max-jets-after-africa-crash">suspended deliveries</a> and may switch to Airbus.</p>
<p>In addition to the cost in human life, the two 737 Max crashes have seriously damaged Boeing’s reputation and could threaten its future. The company cannot wait until investigations establish the cause of the accidents to start to take action, something made clear by the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/11/business/boeing-stock.html">12% fall in its share price</a>.</p>
<p>The accidents also highlight the increasing presence of technology in today’s aircraft. Sophisticated autopilots and even <a href="https://www.thalesgroup.com/en/worldwide/aerospace/magazine/ai-cockpit-why-pilot-your-plane-ground">artificial intelligence</a> play a greater and greater role in aircraft design and operation. Compared to the automation-heavy “fly-by-wire” systems used by Airbus, Boeing had long favored <a href="https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-news/2016/may/pilot/t_bva">traditional controls and extensive pilot training</a>. But this was before the 737 Max and the race for cost reductions and market share.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113580/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oihab Allal-Chérif ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>
The 737 Max is the best-selling airliner ever. But two have crashed in five months, killing 346, damaging Boeing’s future and raising questions about the increasing sophistication of cockpit technology.
Oihab Allal-Chérif, Full Professor, Information Systems, Purchasing and Supply Chain Management, Neoma Business School
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/107318
2018-11-21T18:46:44Z
2018-11-21T18:46:44Z
Ion drive space engine used on aircraft for first time
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246666/original/file-20181121-161612-kt5dwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C11%2C3921%2C1546&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Steven Barrett/MIT</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine an aircraft engine that has no moving parts, produces no harmful exhaust and makes no noise. That’s what researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in the US have created by adapting a technology previously only used in spacecraft so it can power flight over the Earth.</p>
<p>Ion drives have been used on spacecraft <a href="https://dawn.jpl.nasa.gov/features/spacecraft/ion-propulsion/">since the 1960s</a> and work by firing out a stream of charged particles that propel the vessel forward. As well as being carbon neutral, they are less likely to go wrong and cheaper to maintain than conventional engines because they have no propellers, turbines or fuel pumps to break down. The only problem was that, in Earth’s gravity, the thrust produced by the drive wasn’t enough to overcome the weight of the batteries needed to power them. Until now.</p>
<p>The timely new research, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0707-9">published in Nature</a>, paves the way for the possibility of silent drones in the very near future. With further advances in materials and power conversion, silent crewed aircraft and eventually commercial flights could also be on the horizon. In fact, this breakthrough could be the first step in changing how we all fly around the world in the future. </p>
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<p>All aircraft engines work by pushing something backwards so that the craft moves forward. Usually this is air, whether cold air driven by electric propellers or hot air fired out by jet engines. <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/centers/glenn/technology/Ion_Propulsion1.html">Ion propulsion</a> instead sends out charged particles or ions generated in the gap between two electrodes with a high voltage inbetween. The ions interact with the air, creating an ionic wind that is sent backwards, propelling the aircraft forward. </p>
<p>As with propeller-driven solar powered aircraft, ion drive craft are powered by electricity and so don’t need to carry fuel, other than batteries filled with charged particles. The new research shows that, with some clever modifications to the battery setup and the way the electrical power is converted, it’s possible to reduce the battery weight enough to make this technology fly.</p>
<h2>Compromise design</h2>
<p>A craft with an ion drive also needs a large front area to generate the ionic wind in the right way. But this would usually make the aircraft heavier, so the researchers had to balance these conflicting limitations. They designed a wingspan that was small enough to reduce risks and make the testing cheaper and easier, while being large enough to use standard remote control components. </p>
<p>The researchers flew ten flights using an aircraft with a 5-metre wingspan, weighing less than 2.5 kilograms. They were able to fly it for up to 9 seconds over a distance of 45 metres at a speed of 5 metres a second. The craft needed around 20 seconds to build up its power and was then launched using a mechanical bungee system.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246668/original/file-20181121-161633-1813j3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246668/original/file-20181121-161633-1813j3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246668/original/file-20181121-161633-1813j3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246668/original/file-20181121-161633-1813j3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246668/original/file-20181121-161633-1813j3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246668/original/file-20181121-161633-1813j3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246668/original/file-20181121-161633-1813j3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Time lapse of ion drive craft in flight.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Steven Barrett/MIT</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While this flight time and distance might not seem like much, the researchers point out that they’re actually similar to the those of the first flight of aeroplane inventors the <a href="https://airandspace.si.edu/exhibitions/wright-brothers/online/fly/1903/">Wright Brothers in 1903</a>. Making further advances in materials and power electronics, and optimising the airframe, could enable the craft to fly faster and for longer. It may also be possible to use solar panels to generate the electricity needed to power the ion drive.</p>
<p>One of the big advantages of an ion-powered craft is its near-zero levels of noise. So it’s likely the technology will find its first application in silent drones. Its lack of moving parts should make it relatively easy to scale the system down for smaller craft and make it easier to scale up. But bigger craft will also need a bigger increase in power. To build an ion-powered airliner you would need to increased the amount of power relative to the craft’s size 300 fold. </p>
<p>But look how far we have come since the Wright Brothers’ first flight. The sky may be the limit with this new technology.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107318/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Knight does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
MIT researchers have built ion thrusters with no moving parts pave the way for silent drones.
Jason Knight, Senior Lecturer in Fluid Mechanics, University of Portsmouth
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/107233
2018-11-21T18:40:36Z
2018-11-21T18:40:36Z
Inspired by sci-fi, an airplane with no moving parts and a blue ionic glow
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246695/original/file-20181121-161627-1ydgdop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A time-lapse image showing the plane flying across a gymnasium.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0707-9">Steven Barrett, MIT</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since their invention more than 100 years ago, airplanes have been moved through the air by the spinning surfaces of propellers or turbines. But watching science fiction movies like the “Star Wars,” “Star Trek” and “Back to the Future” series, I imagined that the propulsion systems of the future would be silent and still – maybe with some kind of blue glow and “whoosh” noise, but no moving parts, and no stream of pollution pouring out the back.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rVzbyDq3QSY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Science fiction inspires research and reality.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That doesn’t exist yet, but there is at least one physical principle that could be promising. About nine years ago, I started investigating <a href="http://news.mit.edu/2013/ionic-thrusters-0403">using ionic winds</a> – flows of charged particles through the air – as a means of powering flight. Building on decades of <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/a8889/ion-thrusters-from-science-fair-experiment-to-aircraft-engine-15326499/">research and experimentation</a> by academics and hobbyists, professionals and high school science students, my <a href="http://lae.mit.edu/">research</a> <a href="http://barrett.mit.edu/group">group</a> recently flew a <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0707-9">nearly silent airplane without any moving parts</a>.</p>
<p>The plane weighed about five pounds (2.45 kilograms) and had a wingspan of 15 feet (5 meters), and traveled about 180 feet (60 meters), so it’s a long way from efficiently carrying cargo or people long distances. But we have proved that it is possible to fly a heavier-than-air vehicle using ionic winds. It even has a glow you can see in the dark.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dEvMNKD7yFA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A plane powered by ionic wind takes flight.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Revisiting discarded research</h2>
<p>The process our plane uses, formally called electroaerodynamic propulsion, was investigated <a href="https://www.wired.com/2003/08/pwr-antigravity/">as far back as the 1920s</a> by an eccentric scientist who thought he had discovered anti-gravity – which was of course not the case. In the 1960s, aerospace engineers <a href="https://patents.google.com/patent/US3130945A/en">explored using it to power flight</a>, but they concluded that wouldn’t be possible with the understanding of ionic winds and the technology available at the time.</p>
<p>More recently, however, a huge number of hobbyists – and high school students doing science fair projects – have built small electroaerodynamic propulsion devices that suggested it could work after all. Their work was pivotal to the early days of my group’s work. We sought to improve on their work, most notably by conducting a large series of experiments to learn how to optimize the design of electroaerodynamic thrusters.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/OUZ62_rn3oo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A homemade lifter using the same principle as the new MIT airplane.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Moving the air, not the plane parts</h2>
<p>The underlying physics of electroaerodynamic propulsion is relatively straightforward to explain and implement, although some of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corona_discharge#Mechanism">underlying physics is complex</a>. </p>
<p>We use a thin filament or wire that is charged to +20,000 volts using a lightweight power converter, which in turn gets its power from a lithium-polymer battery. The thin filaments are called emitters, and are nearer the front of the plane. Around these emitters the electric field is so strong that the air gets ionized – neutral nitrogen molecules lose an electron and become positively charged nitrogen ions. </p>
<p>Farther back on the plane we place an airfoil – like a small wing – whose leading edge is electrically conductive and charged to -20,000 volts by the same power converter. This is called the collector. The collector attracts the positive ions toward it. As the ions stream from the emitter to the collector, they collide with uncharged air molecules, causing what is termed an ionic wind that flows between the emitters and collectors, propelling the plane forward.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TeJyMbSSUIc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How MIT’s airplane works.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This ionic wind replaces the flow of air that a jet engine or propeller would create.</p>
<h2>Starting small</h2>
<p>I have <a href="http://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2014.0912">led research</a> that has <a href="http://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2012.0623">explored how</a> this type of propulsion actually works, developing detailed knowledge of how efficient and powerful it can be.</p>
<p>My team and I have also worked with electrical engineers to develop the electronics necessary to convert batteries’ output to the tens of thousands of volts needed to create an ionic wind. The team was able to produce a power converter far lighter than any previously available. That device was small enough to be practical in an aircraft design, which we were ultimately able to build and fly.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/boB6qu5dcCw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Steven Barrett speaks in a ‘Nature’ mini-documentary about the first flight of an ionic-wind-driven plane.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our first flight is, of course, a very long way from flying people. We’re already working on making this type of propulsion more efficient and capable of carrying larger loads. The first commercial applications, assuming it gets that far, could be in making silent fixed-wing drones, including for environmental monitoring and communication platforms.</p>
<p>Looking farther into the future, we hope that it could be used in larger aircraft to reduce noise and even allow an aircraft’s exterior skin to help produce thrust, either in place of engines or to augment their power. It’s also possible that electroaerodynamic equipment could be miniaturized, enabling a new variety of nano-drones. Many might believe these possibilities are unlikely or even impossible. But that’s what the engineers of the 1960s thought about what we’re already doing today.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107233/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steven Barrett received funding for this work from the MIT Bose Fellowships, MIT Lincoln Lab, and the Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology. </span></em></p>
Ionic winds – charged particles flowing through the air – can move airplanes using only electricity; no propellers or jet engines needed. The scholar who led the project explains how it works.
Steven Barrett, Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/103102
2018-10-03T20:04:52Z
2018-10-03T20:04:52Z
Curious Kids: what’s the history of aircraft squawk codes and how do they work?
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239061/original/file-20181003-101558-cgjvt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Perth air traffic control tower. As a pilot flies towards the destination, the air traffic control tower sends an interrogation signal. The aircraft automatically responds with a series of short pulses that let air traffic control know the identity of the plane and its altitude.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://newsroom.airservicesaustralia.com/galleries">© Copyright Airservices Australia</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This is an article from <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/curious-kids-36782">Curious Kids</a>, a series for children. The Conversation is asking kids to send in questions they’d like an expert to answer. All questions are welcome – serious, weird or wacky! You might also like the podcast <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/kidslisten/imagine-this/">Imagine This</a>, a co-production between ABC KIDS listen and The Conversation, based on Curious Kids.</em> </p>
<hr>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>Hi, I’m Daniel, 12, and I would like to know the history behind squawk codes on aircraft and how they work. Thanks! – Daniel, age 12, Perth.</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>Thank you, Daniel, for this question. As you have guessed there is a very interesting back story to “squawk codes”. These codes have been used in radio signalling systems for more than 75 years to identify and determine the location of aircraft in flight.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-how-does-glow-in-the-dark-paint-work-92438">Curious Kids: How does glow in the dark paint work?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239060/original/file-20181003-101558-na7wph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239060/original/file-20181003-101558-na7wph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239060/original/file-20181003-101558-na7wph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239060/original/file-20181003-101558-na7wph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239060/original/file-20181003-101558-na7wph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=745&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239060/original/file-20181003-101558-na7wph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=745&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239060/original/file-20181003-101558-na7wph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=745&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Nazi plane flies over South London in 1940. Germany used bomber aircraft to attack the UK in the Battle of Britain. The British won, thanks partly to their early radar systems – but these systems initially had a limitation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Code name: Parrot</h2>
<p>Early radar systems used in the second world war were critical to allied success in the Battle of Britain in 1940, when Britain’s Royal Air Force (RAF) defended the United Kingdom against a huge air attack campaign by Nazi Germany’s air force, the Luftwaffe.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239057/original/file-20181003-101573-11owyaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239057/original/file-20181003-101573-11owyaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239057/original/file-20181003-101573-11owyaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239057/original/file-20181003-101573-11owyaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239057/original/file-20181003-101573-11owyaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239057/original/file-20181003-101573-11owyaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=637&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239057/original/file-20181003-101573-11owyaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=637&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239057/original/file-20181003-101573-11owyaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=637&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nazi Germany used aircraft like these Heinkel He 111 to attack the UK in the Battle of Britain.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But these early radar systems had a major limitation. They could detect aircraft by radio signals being reflected by moving objects, but the reflected signal could not tell you whether an aircraft was friendly or hostile.</p>
<p>This led to the rapid development of secondary surveillance radars, which required an active and cooperative response from aircraft. In other words, the aircraft had to answer back. This would help to identify the “friendlies” in the skies.</p>
<p>The secondary radar system would send a transmission of radio frequency pulses directed at the aircraft. Friendly aircraft were fitted with equipment that would respond with an identification code. If no response was received, radar operators would presume the aircraft was an enemy plane.</p>
<p>This innovation meant that radar operators could now use the main radars (known as “primary radars”) in combination with the secondary radars to detect the presence of aircraft and to distinguish between friends and foes. </p>
<p>This system was known as Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) and the concept remains important to military forces even today. </p>
<p>The aircraft transponder, which received and transmitted signals, was initially code-named Parrot. Soon, airmen started using the nickname “squawk codes”.</p>
<p>While the name Parrot didn’t last, the term “squawk” continues to be used today to describe the activity of the transponder.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-how-does-gravity-pull-things-down-to-earth-101545">Curious Kids: how does gravity pull things down to Earth?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How it works</h2>
<p>After the war, the concept was adapted for civil aircraft – the kinds of plane we fly on when we go on holiday.</p>
<p>The system identifies an aircraft through a four-digit octal number (each digit from 0 to 7), which provides for up to 4,096 possible codes. These codes can also be used to alert controllers of an aircraft emergency. Subsequently, another mode was added to inform radar controllers of an aircraft’s height, using data from the plane’s altimeter (the instrument that tells you how high a plane is flying).</p>
<p>For those of you who are technically minded, the frequencies used in secondary surveillance radar are 1030 Megahertz for the interrogation (the “hello, who are you?” signal) and 1090 Megahertz for the response (the answer you get back). The response is a sequence of pulses spaced 1.45 microseconds apart – that’s very fast!</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239053/original/file-20181003-101555-1l2qa76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239053/original/file-20181003-101555-1l2qa76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239053/original/file-20181003-101555-1l2qa76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239053/original/file-20181003-101555-1l2qa76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239053/original/file-20181003-101555-1l2qa76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239053/original/file-20181003-101555-1l2qa76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239053/original/file-20181003-101555-1l2qa76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239053/original/file-20181003-101555-1l2qa76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A temporary en route or secondary radar at Melbourne Airport. Airservices uses en route radar to assist with separation of aircraft in controlled airspace.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://newsroom.airservicesaustralia.com/images/ml-apt-mar-lines-install-04-2015-87">© Copyright Airservices Australia 2015</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Air traffic control towers</h2>
<p>Imagine a pilot is flying a plane full of passengers on holiday to Sydney. As she or he flies towards the destination, the air traffic control tower at Sydney airport sends an interrogation signal. The aircraft automatically responds with a series of short pulses that let air traffic control know the identity of the plane and its altitude. Then air traffic control can compare the identity code to flight plans to identify the aircraft. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239056/original/file-20181003-101558-xvh59c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239056/original/file-20181003-101558-xvh59c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239056/original/file-20181003-101558-xvh59c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239056/original/file-20181003-101558-xvh59c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239056/original/file-20181003-101558-xvh59c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239056/original/file-20181003-101558-xvh59c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239056/original/file-20181003-101558-xvh59c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239056/original/file-20181003-101558-xvh59c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Airservices control tower at Sydney Airport.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://newsroom.airservicesaustralia.com/images/sydney_tower-2">© Copyright Airservices Australia 2014</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The time taken between the interrogation transmission and the received code lets us know the distance between the radar and the aircraft. Air traffic control computer systems use this information, the direction of the interrogation signal, and the altitude to determine exactly where the aircraft is.</p>
<p>Other navigation and airspace management systems have been developed over the years. The most recent is the Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) system, which incorporates Global Positioning System (GPS) data into the responses from aircraft. </p>
<p>Secondary surveillance radar was an important development in the safety of aviation and remains a key element of airspace management today.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-whats-it-like-to-be-a-fighter-pilot-100563">Curious Kids: what's it like to be a fighter pilot?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Hello, curious kids! Have you got a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to us. They can:</em></p>
<p><em>* Email your question to curiouskids@theconversation.edu.au
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<p><em>Please tell us your name, age and which city you live in. You can send an audio recording of your question too, if you want. Send as many questions as you like! We won’t be able to answer every question but we will do our best.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103102/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Dowse does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Secondary radar is an important tool in the control of aircraft traffic, and helps make air travel safe. It was developed during dangerous times.
Andrew Dowse, Director, Defence Research and Engagement, Edith Cowan University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/103834
2018-09-28T07:01:47Z
2018-09-28T07:01:47Z
Lessons learned from the Essendon air crash: the importance of pilot checklists
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238405/original/file-20180928-48650-17pp74y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C885%2C7043%2C3721&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The importance of check lists.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/lillolillo</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the issues raised in the investigation of a Melbourne air crash that killed five people was the importance of pilots sticking to any pre-flight checklists.</p>
<p>Pilot Max Quartermain and four American tourists died when a Beechcraft B200 Super King Air VH-ZCR crashed into the DFO shopping centre shortly after takeoff from Essendon Airport on February 21, 2017.</p>
<p>The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) <a href="https://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/investigation_reports/2017/aair/ao-2017-024/">report into the crash</a> found the pilot did not detect that the aircraft’s rudder trim was not in the correct position before take-off. This rudder trim helps a pilot control an aircraft.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-black-box-an-australian-invention-that-nearly-didnt-happen-25435">The black box: an Australian invention that nearly didn't happen</a>
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<p>With the rudder trim incorrectly set, the report found, this adversely affected the aircraft’s take-off performance and ability to climb.</p>
<p>While not apportioning blame, the ATSB report said the rudder trim’s incorrect position was a contributing factor to the crash.</p>
<p>The ATSB’s chief commissioner Greg Hood said this accident <a href="https://www.atsb.gov.au/newsroom/news-items/2018/the-importance-of-following-a-cockpit-checklist/">emphasised</a> the importance of having a cockpit checklist applicable to an aircraft’s specific and current modification status.</p>
<p>The report said it was not known whether the pilot had used a checklist on the day of the crash, but Mr Hood added:</p>
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<p>In this particular tragic accident there were opportunities in the checklist that existed for the pilot to ensure the rudder trim was set to neutral prior to take-off.</p>
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<h2>Checklists for pilots</h2>
<p>The use of checklists in single-pilot operations has been a contentious issue over the years. From the beginning of flight training, pilots are taught to memorise key checklists so they can readily recall and perform the required checks accurately. </p>
<p>In simpler cockpits, this process can provide reliable results. As the complexity of the aircraft systems and the cockpit controls increases, the inadequacy of solely relying on memory and recall becomes evident. </p>
<p>To minimise the likelihood of configuration errors in two-pilot airline operations, it is usual practice in each phase of flight for the cockpit to be initially configured by the pilots by recall.</p>
<p>The correct configuration is then checked by the two pilots by running through the applicable checklist. </p>
<p>The pilot not flying will usually call the item, both pilots will then check the appropriate switch or control setting. The pilot flying will verbally respond to the call to confirm the correct setting. </p>
<p>For a configuration error to occur in that environment, the setting has to be made incorrectly from recall, or omitted, in the first instance. Then both pilots have to miss the incorrect setting when the checklist call is made and responded to. </p>
<p>This method – sometimes referred to as a “challenge and response” method – provides two levels of procedural redundancy to guard against human errors that might otherwise lead to incorrect settings.</p>
<h2>Single pilot operations</h2>
<p>The challenge arises when considering how to achieve the same level of error-proofing in single-pilot operations. For example, a <a href="https://hsi.arc.nasa.gov/groups/HCSL/publications/Deutsch_SinglePilot_2005.pdf">2005 study</a> for the NASA Ames Research Centre said:</p>
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<p>… the failure to execute a checklist can cause readily detectable problems to remain undiscovered. Beyond simply being required, executing checklists is recognized by everyone as being essential to safe aircraft operation, and yet, checklist processing omissions and errors continue to be a factor in aircraft incidents and accidents. </p>
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<p>New Zealand’s Civil Aviation Authority, in its <a href="https://www.caa.govt.nz/Advisory_Circulars/AC091_11.pdf">advisory on single-pilot operations</a>, said:</p>
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<p>… the pilot is very reliant on the use of checklists to provide a suitable structure to replace the “Challenge and Response” checklists used in the multi-pilot cockpit.</p>
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<p>Further, in discussion of single-pilot flying techniques, the US Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association <a href="https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-news/2017/august/pilot/turbine-single-pilot-flying-techniques">said</a>:</p>
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<p>… proper checklist use is a skill with some overlooked subtleties. First, though, the pilot must be committed to, and recognize the need for, disciplined checklist use. Industry working groups have recognized that single-pilot adherence to checklist usage is an area with some room for improvement. Especially in new light jets with highly automated systems, pilots can develop complacency regarding checklist usage that grows with time and familiarity.</p>
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<h2>The drift into failure</h2>
<p>Many years ago I delivered a paper at a safety conference in which I argued that deviation from approved procedures and practices erodes the safety margins that were afforded by the system. The magnitude and criticality of the reduction in protection was unknown until the margins had eroded to zero and an accident occurred. </p>
<p>More recently, safety expert <a href="https://experts.griffith.edu.au/academic/s.dekker">Sidney Dekker</a> described this phenomenon in his 2011 book <a href="https://www.crcpress.com/Drift-into-Failure-From-Hunting-Broken-Components-to-Understanding-Complex/Dekker/p/book/9781409422211">Drift into Failure: From Hunting Broken Components to Understanding Complex Systems</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sharkspotter-combines-ai-and-drone-technology-to-spot-sharks-and-aid-swimmers-on-australian-beaches-92667">SharkSpotter combines AI and drone technology to spot sharks and aid swimmers on Australian beaches</a>
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<p>One of the biggest problems with single-pilot operations is the fact that it is very difficult to self-diagnose errors and omissions, and to recognise the associated drift into failure.</p>
<p>Just telling people about error, as tends to be the case sometimes in industry, does not immunise them from making errors or omissions of their own. </p>
<p>The systems and procedural environment in which a person functions needs to help provide those checks and balances. In short, rigorous use of checklists by pilots in single-pilot operations is really the only protection available to prevent critical errors.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103834/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geoffrey Dell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
One of the biggest problems with single-pilot operations is that it’s very difficult to self-diagnose errors. That’s why checklists can help.
Geoffrey Dell, Associate Professor/Discipline Leader Accident Investigation and Forensics, CQUniversity Australia
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.