tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/aliso-canyon-methane-leak-24094/articlesAliso Canyon methane leak – The Conversation2019-03-01T11:40:19Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1121002019-03-01T11:40:19Z2019-03-01T11:40:19ZWhat makes natural gas bottlenecks happen during extreme cold snaps<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261272/original/file-20190227-150712-1yhlvqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Chicago's Lake Michigan waterfront froze during the 2019 polar vortex.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Winter-Weather/487dea11af994f39ad6b1db8e829a6f7/2/0">AP Photo/Kiichiro Sato</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When temperatures in <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/live-news/polar-vortex-2019-01-30-winter-storm-jayden-latest-snow-storm-weather-live-updates/">Minneapolis fell to 27 below zero</a> during the January 2019 polar vortex, the Xcel Energy utility urged all Minnesota customers to lower their thermostats to conserve natural gas needed for power generation. In Michigan, where it was also <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/yes-chicago-will-be-colder-than-antarctica-alaska-and-the-north-pole-on-wednesday/ar-BBSVfxx">colder than the North Pole</a>, <a href="http://gmauthority.com/blog/2019/01/polar-vortex-suspends-operations-at-various-gm-plants/">General Motors</a> even shut several factories as a precaution against outages. </p>
<p>This might seem like a paradox. U.S. gas production is at an <a href="https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/archivenew_ngwu/2019/01_31/">all-time high</a>, and electricity generation from renewable sources is growing at a <a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/20/bps-energy-outlook-undermines-its-own-good-news/">record pace</a>.</p>
<p>As an engineering economist who <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=pEaHhtAAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">studies electricity markets and fuel supply chains</a>, I look for ways to maintain energy delivery despite increasingly uncertain and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-04-19/the-coming-storm-of-climate-change-video">extreme weather</a>. I also <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?show=editorialBoard&journalCode=utee20">edit an academic journal</a> devoted to analyzing the costs, benefits and risks of capital investment. Based on what I’ve seen, making electrical generation more flexible while increasing access to stored gas would be the best way to help keep the lights on without sacrificing warmth when <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=38472">cold snaps strike</a>.</p>
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<h2>More power from gas</h2>
<p>The 2019 gas shortfall was only the most recent in a string of similar situations. Earlier <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-natgas-pipelines-chill-analysis/analysis-arctic-chill-exposes-weakness-of-u-s-natural-gas-system-idUSBREA0700H20140108">polar vortexes</a> in 2013 and 2014 hit New England especially hard. The “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather-energy/bomb-cyclone-hits-u-s-east-coast-energy-power-supply-idUSKBN1ET1GS">bomb cyclone</a>” that struck the East Coast in the winter of 2018 strained supplies, making gas prices soar. </p>
<p>It’s not just that bouts of <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-and-weather-extremes-both-heat-and-cold-can-kill-77449">extreme weather are becoming worse</a> and more common, even though they are. The electricity grid is increasingly relying on natural gas.</p>
<p>Many of the older <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/02/14/694769097/trump-tweet-fails-to-save-kentucky-coal-fired-power-plant">coal-fired generators</a> being retired are being replaced by gas-fired ones and renewable sources like wind and solar energy. The share of <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3">electricity powered by natural gas rose to 32 percent</a> in 2017 from <a href="https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/fuelelasticities/">18 percent in 1990</a>, as the share from coal fell to 30 percent from 76 percent in the same time period. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdm.htm">Natural gas costs much less</a> than it used to, and gas-fired generators are more flexible. It is far easier to <a href="https://www.utilitydive.com/news/a-users-guide-to-natural-gas-power-plants/259104/">turn gas-fired power plants on and off</a>, for example, than nuclear reactors. What’s more, natural gas plants can ramp production up or down quickly to smooth out the inevitable variability in electricity generation from wind turbines and solar panels – when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing.</p>
<p>As renewable energy <a href="https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/">accounts for bigger shares</a> of electricity generation, <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O2NAEUHGQ0oRgS8SU0tiL3nGGQ0CUdc5iNT9GAI2cK4/edit?usp=sharing">power production from gas is projected to keep growing</a>, too.</p>
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<h2>No easy substitute</h2>
<p>Most gas heats homes and commercial properties and fuels the manufacturing of everything from <a href="http://naturalgas.org/overview/uses-industrial/">newsprint to aluminum and canned tuna</a>. Following years of growth, electricity generation still consumes <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.php?page=natural_gas_use">only about a third of all gas usage</a> in the United States.</p>
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<p>And, while utilities have different choices they can make, there is no easy or immediate way to find a substitute for its other uses – especially if they want a <a href="https://theconversation.com/energy-wonks-have-a-meltdown-over-the-us-going-100-percent-renewable-why-79834">relatively clean source</a>. Heating systems take a long time and a lot of money <a href="https://www.angieslist.com/articles/how-much-does-solar-water-heater-cost.htm">to convert</a> for <a href="https://www.homeadvisor.com/cost/heating-and-cooling/install-a-geothermal-heating-or-cooling-system/">homeowners</a>, and it’s even harder for <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy03osti/33516.pdf">manufacturers</a>. </p>
<p>To avoid service disruptions, most large industrial and commercial users, as well as local gas companies, establish firm contracts that guarantee delivery of the gas they anticipate needing.</p>
<p>The contracts for gas used to generate electricity are different. Many power companies, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, have “<a href="https://www.scanaenergymarketing.com/faqs/whats-the-difference-between-firm-service-and-interruptible-service">interruptible contracts</a>” with gas suppliers. These arrangements let them pay lower prices that allow them to compete in wholesale electricity markets, but have a downside. They make those companies a lower priority than other customers for gas delivery. </p>
<p>The electric power industry and its regulators can see that customers don’t want to have to set their thermostats to <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2019/01/31/polar-vortex-2019-deadly-storm-temperatures-thursday/2729218002/">65 degrees or less</a> during bitter cold weather. And indeed, they have taken steps to reduce the grid’s vulnerability to gas bottlenecks, such as by adjusting the timing of the wholesale electricity markets to <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1109/MPE.2014.2366062">help power plants buy additional gas</a> when they need it. And better communication is improving forecasts regarding demand and making it easier for power plants learn about supply disruptions earlier on.</p>
<h2>Long-term investments</h2>
<p>Cold snaps increase the need for both electricity <a href="https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/archivenew_ngwu/2019/02_07/">and natural gas</a> to heat homes and businesses at the same time, making wholesale <a href="https://www.misoenergy.org/markets-and-operations/market-reports/#nt=%2FMarketReportType%3AHistorical%20LMP%2FMarketReportName%3AReal-Time%20Final%20Market%20LMPs%20(csv)&t=10&p=0&s=MarketReportPublished&sd=desc">electricity prices spike</a> as electricity market operators scramble to keep the grid operating smoothly.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.02.118">Demand for electricity fluctuates</a> by the hour, day and season, magnified only occasionally by severe weather events, and the variability in renewable generation compounds swings in demands on gas-fired power plants. Rather than <a href="https://pipeline101.org/Where-Are-Pipelines-Located">building pipelines</a> that will only rarely be used at full capacity, it makes sense to invest in flexibility for the generation system to adjust more easily to changes in electricity demand and fuel supply.</p>
<p>While they won’t raise retail electricity prices immediately, these short-term price spikes signal the need, and provide the justification, for longer-term investments to avoid rate hikes or <a href="https://www.comed.com/News/Pages/NewsReleases/2019_01_31.aspx">even outages</a>.</p>
<p>One such strategy is to <a href="https://doi.org/10.2172/1415774">retrofit gas generators for dual-fuel capability</a>. Practically, this means constructing a storage tank for another fuel, like oil, along with the pipes and other equipment to inject it into the chamber where the fuel is burned. It’s a significant investment but, that way, when extreme weather causes the demand for gas to outstrip the capacity of the pipelines available, power plants can switch to an alternative fuel temporarily.</p>
<p>Just as any kind of inventory, whether it’s paper cups or hubcaps, will help avert supply chain disruptions, stored gas can also keep the power flowing. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/PESGM.2017.8274496">Research I conducted</a> with <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=hml1HVAAAAAJ&hl=en">George Gross</a> showed that investments to expand the capacity of gas storage facilities lowered the risk of high electricity prices more effectively than dual-fuel retrofits.</p>
<p>Storing large amounts of natural gas is not without risk, as residents of Southern California learned in 2015. Leaks from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/californias-aliso-canyon-methane-leak-climate-disaster-or-opportunity-53198">Aliso Canyon</a> storage facility in Los Angeles made nearby residents sick and gushed greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>But I still believe that a snowy-day reserve of gas may be the best way to keep the lights on when temperatures sink to extreme lows.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112100/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Ryan has received funding from the Power Systems Engineering Research Center and the Department of Energy in the ARPA-E Green Electricity Network Integration (GENI) program. </span></em></p>Natural gas supplies are growing, but so are other markets for it besides power generation.Sarah Ryan, Professor of Industrial Engineering , Iowa State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/702492017-01-17T04:33:42Z2017-01-17T04:33:42ZDetecting methane leaks with infrared cameras: They’re fast, but are they effective?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152924/original/image-20170116-9055-cuiylb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Damage from a 2010 explosion and fire in San Bruno, California, caused by a leaking natural gas pipeline. The disaster killed eight people.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/thomashawk/5006359844">Thomas Hawk/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Methane is the major component of natural gas, which heats our homes and recently surpassed coal as the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=27072">top fuel for generating electricity</a> in the United States. But methane is also a <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview-greenhouse-gases">powerful greenhouse gas</a> that contributes to global warming. And because methane is highly flammable, gas leaks pose a significant safety hazard, as we saw in fatal explosions in 2010 in <a href="https://ww2.kqed.org/news/2015/09/08/five-years-after-deadly-san-bruno-explosion-are-we-safer/">San Bruno, California</a> and 2015 in <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/27/nyregion/reports-of-explosion-in-east-village.html">New York City</a>. The massive gas leak from the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/03/magazine/the-invisible-catastrophe.html">Aliso Canyon storage facility</a> in Southern California in October 2015 led to <a href="http://www.dailynews.com/general-news/20170112/socalgas-opens-gates-to-reporters-for-first-ever-tour-of-aliso-canyon-gas-field">evacuations</a> of over 8,000 families after reports of serious health issues. </p>
<p>The United States, Canada and Mexico are working together to reduce methane emissions from the oil and gas sector through the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/06/29/leaders-statement-north-american-climate-clean-energy-and-environment">North American Climate, Clean Energy and Environment Partnership</a>. As one step, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently finalized <a href="https://www.epa.gov/controlling-air-pollution-oil-and-natural-gas-industry/new-source-performance-standards-and#Final%20rules">rules</a> that require oil and gas companies to adopt leak detection and repair programs. </p>
<p>EPA recommends that gas companies use infrared cameras, one of the most commonly available leak detection technologies. These cameras enable gas leaks to be detected rapidly and safely. Although other detection technologies are available, they’re either expensive, slow or unsuitable.</p>
<p>My research focuses on evaluating leak detection technologies and using those insights to inform emissions mitigation policy. In our most recent <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6b03906">work</a>, we analyzed the limits of infrared cameras in effectively detecting methane leaks. Some of these limitations have important policy implications.</p>
<h2>Cameras work better in some conditions than others</h2>
<p>Infrared cameras work much like an iPhone camera, with a key difference. While an iPhone camera is sensitive to visible light, infrared cameras are sensitive to infrared light, the portion of the sun’s light that is invisible to the naked eye and has wavelengths longer than red. Since methane is sensitive to infrared light, infrared cameras can detect it. Indeed many production facility operators use them routinely for leak detection and repair procedures, with <a href="http://www.cpr.org/news/story/methane-hunt-tech-helps-colorado-oil-and-gas-operators-lead-way">anecdotal success</a>. </p>
<p>Despite such evidence, there were no systematic studies on the effectiveness of these cameras. And because all objects emit infrared light, we suspected that environmental conditions might play an important role in how the camera works. In the <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6b03906">study</a> I coauthored, we analyzed how environmental factors like temperature, wind, humidity and background conditions affected what the camera “sees.” </p>
<p>We developed a model to predict whether the camera will detect a leak of given size under different measurement conditions. In order to verify that this model is accurate, we intentionally released methane and compared the corresponding camera images with model results. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152822/original/image-20170116-16922-1eckpm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152822/original/image-20170116-16922-1eckpm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152822/original/image-20170116-16922-1eckpm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152822/original/image-20170116-16922-1eckpm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152822/original/image-20170116-16922-1eckpm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152822/original/image-20170116-16922-1eckpm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152822/original/image-20170116-16922-1eckpm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152822/original/image-20170116-16922-1eckpm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Infrared camera image (grayscale) of a controlled methane leak superimposed on the modeled leak image (color).</span>
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</figure>
<p>We found that the cameras’ effectiveness in detecting leaks was highly variable based on weather conditions. Also, the camera operator’s expertise and even properties of the facility, such as its location and gas composition, affected the readings. Under ideal conditions, the cameras detected over 80 percent of the total leakage at the facility. </p>
<p>But such a high success rate is possible if and only if the camera is operated during periods of low wind, warm weather, clear skies and leaks are imaged from distances of about 30 feet. Under nonideal conditions (high wind, cold days or viewing distance greater than 100 feet), they detected as little as 10 percent of the total leakage. </p>
<p>Recent EPA <a href="https://www.regulations.gov/docket?D=EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0505">regulations</a> do not specify many crucial parameters. For example, an operator decides maximum viewing distance and acceptable wind conditions for testing leaks; and there are no requirements on temperature or cloud cover conditions. </p>
<p>With such latitude in determining testing protocols, an operator can perform a leak detection survey, without actually finding any leaks. This can be done by searching for leaks on cold or humid days or measuring from distances farther than about 100 feet. In order to consistently find leaks using this technology, we concluded that EPA’s rules need to be more specific, or use a different metric to track progress.</p>
<h2>A possible solution: Fix ‘super-emitters’</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2016/04/03/theres-good-news-and-bad-news-about-americas-leaking-methane/#59ba8d3595b2">“Super-emitters,”</a> as the name implies, are very large leaks with a leak rate between 100 tons/year to over 1,000 tons/year. All tests that have been conducted at gas facilities – production wells, processing facilities and compressor stations – often find a small number of these super-emitters. </p>
<p>Infrared cameras are naturally suited to detect these super-emitters because it is easier to detect bigger leaks than smaller ones, even under unfavorable measurement conditions. Fixing super-emitters could be a cost-effective way for facility operators to significantly reduce leakage and improve safety.</p>
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<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Infrared imaging of the Aliso Canyon leak from a natural gas storage reservoir near Porter Ranch, California, January 12, 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=88245&src=eorss-iotd&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter">NASA Earth Observatory</a></span>
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<h2>Not all locations are created equal</h2>
<p>The number and sizes of leaks at any facility vary significantly across the country. For example, recent research at production facilities has shown that super-emitters contribute to a larger fraction of total leakage in <a href="http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acs.est.5b05503">Pennsylvania</a> compared to <a href="http://fortworthtexas.gov/gaswells/air-quality-study/final/">Texas</a>. Because super-emitters are easily detected by these cameras, leak detection will be more effective in Pennsylvania than in Texas. </p>
<p>In addition to its size, the composition of a leak can also significantly affect detection. Drilled wells can often release nonmethane gases like ethane and propane. Often termed “wet-gas,” these nonmethane compounds are more sensitive to infrared light than methane. Therefore, a leak rich in these compounds will “look” brighter than a similar leak that contains only methane. Such situations commonly occur in regions where significant oil is also extracted along with gas.</p>
<p>These subtleties have important consequences for policy. A camera’s effectiveness depends not only on its own properties, but also on the properties of the facility being tested. An 80 percent success rate in one location will not translate into a similar success rate at other locations. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Using an infrared camera to detect methane emissions at an oil and natural gas corporation facility (video developed by EPA).</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Better options?</h2>
<p>Detecting methane leaks is a hard problem further complicated by the large number of potential sources and by a scarcity of cheap detection technologies. By effectively endorsing infrared cameras as a preferred option, EPA has rightly chosen the most efficient and, by some estimates, least-cost option. </p>
<p>However, new technologies and startups, many funded by the Department of Energy’s <a href="https://arpa-e.energy.gov/?q=arpa-e-programs/monitor">MONITOR</a> program, are being developed. Although many are in their early stages, these new technologies promise faster and more accurate leak detection. It would be a mistake for any mitigation policy to not take advantage of these new technologies, especially if they can further reduce costs and improve safety. We are currently researching broader questions on ways to design effective methane mitigation policy. How this will unfold in the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/11/11/this-is-the-other-way-that-trump-could-worsen-global-warming/?utm_term=.cd475183f078">context of the incoming administration</a> remains to be seen.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70249/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Arvind P. Ravikumar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Infrared cameras are the technology of choice for detecting gas leaks across the US. New research shows that these cameras can be quite inaccurate, and leaks can persist without being detected.Arvind P. Ravikumar, Post-doctoral Fellow: Energy systems analysis and energy policy, Stanford UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/531982016-01-19T08:48:22Z2016-01-19T08:48:22ZCalifornia’s Aliso Canyon methane leak: climate disaster or opportunity?<p>This October, a large leak was discovered at the Aliso Canyon natural gas storage facility in northwest Los Angeles. The leak is a serious <a href="http://oehha.ca.gov/public_info/emergency/alisocanyon.html">health risk</a> to nearby residents, and because methane – the primary component of natural gas – is a potent greenhouse gas, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/05/aliso-canyon-leak-california-climate-change">some have</a> called <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/12/23/new-infrared-video-reveals-growing-environmental-disaster-in-la-gas-leak/">this leak</a> a “<a href="http://www.kcet.org/news/redefine/rewire/commentary/porter-ranch-leak-a-disaster-for-climate.html">disaster</a>” for climate change.</p>
<p>To be sure, this leak, which is projected to continue for several weeks, is very significant. But because natural gas leaks every day from thousands of locations across the United States, Aliso Canyon’s emissions are actually quite small when measured on a national scale – less than one percent of natural gas’ contribution to national emissions.</p>
<p>Given its relatively modest greenhouse gas impact, research on energy and climate policy tells us that this leak is not by itself a “climate disaster.” Instead, it is more productive to think of Aliso Canyon as an opportunity: while fixing the leak must be a high priority for local, state and federal officials, it should also provide the impetus to tackle the dispersed sources of methane from the oil and natural gas industry that contribute far more to climate change than any single well ever could.</p>
<h2>Natural gas and methane in the U.S.</h2>
<p>Natural gas production and consumption have <a href="http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_prod_sum_a_EPG0_FGW_mmcf_a.htm">grown substantially</a> in the United States over the past 10 years, and debate has raged over a variety of issues related to producing gas from shale using hydraulic fracturing, or fracking.</p>
<p>Because it has displaced a substantial amount of coal for electricity generation, natural gas has helped reduce U.S. CO2 emissions from our power plants <a href="http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec12_9.pdf">by 18 percent since their peak in 2005</a>.</p>
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<p>Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important greenhouse gas, but methane comes in second. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates that <a href="http://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/gases.html">methane contributed roughly 10 percent</a> of domestic greenhouse gas emissions in 2013, and that the largest source was the oil and natural gas sector. These emissions occur when natural gas is either (unintentionally) leaked or (intentionally) vented from well sites, compressor stations, pipelines and other facilities.</p>
<p>In recent years, EPA’s estimates of methane emissions from the natural gas system have come under question, generating debate over whether natural gas <a href="http://corporate.exxonmobil.com/en/energy/natural-gas">helps</a> or <a href="http://www.eeb.cornell.edu/howarth/publications/Howarth_2014_ESE_methane_emissions.pdf">hurts</a> in the fight against climate change. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/343/6172/733.summary">most comprehensive research</a>, supported by the environmental advocacy group <a href="https://www.edf.org/climate/methane-studies">Environmental Defense Fund</a>, suggests that methane emissions from natural gas systems may be roughly <a href="http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-methane-emissions-higher-than-estimated-epa-20131127-story.html">50 percent higher</a> than EPA’s estimates, though substantial uncertainty remains.</p>
<h2>Aliso Canyon’s overall climate effect</h2>
<p>As shown in <a href="http://blogs.edf.org/energyexchange/2015/12/10/infrared-camera-reveals-huge-wafting-cloud-of-methane-over-californias-aliso-canyon/">startling infared videos</a>, Aliso Canyon’s faulty well is leaking methane at an astonishing rate. </p>
<p>If the well is plugged by March 31 (<a href="http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-porter-ranch-delay-20160102-story.html">reported estimates</a> range from late February to late March), Aliso Canyon will likely have leaked methane equivalent to roughly four million metric tons of CO2, about one third more than all of what <a href="http://www.eia.gov/state/rankings/?sid=CT#series/226">Washington, D.C.</a> emitted in 2013. </p>
<p>These calculations are based on <a href="http://arb.ca.gov/research/aliso_canyon/aliso_canyon_natural_gas_leak_updates-sa_flights_thru_jan_8_2016.pdf">estimates from the California Air Resources Board</a>, assuming a steady leak rate from January 8 through March 31. It uses a 100-year global warming potential (GWP) – a <a href="http://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/gwps.html">method to compare other greenhouse gases</a> to carbon dioxide – of 32. </p>
<p>While this leak is indeed substantial, perhaps the more startling fact is that it is small compared with methane emissions from other oil- and gas-related sources.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108467/original/image-20160118-31807-4soam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108467/original/image-20160118-31807-4soam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108467/original/image-20160118-31807-4soam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108467/original/image-20160118-31807-4soam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108467/original/image-20160118-31807-4soam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108467/original/image-20160118-31807-4soam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108467/original/image-20160118-31807-4soam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108467/original/image-20160118-31807-4soam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">By some estimates, EPA’s figures for methane leaks from natural gas wells and pipelines, like this one in Michigan, is 50 percent lower than the actual amount.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/consumersenergy/15215275918/in/photolist-pbwgrq-gJAmPE-gJAtXu-qb7F2H-fjG7tL-bj3DPg-bj3EhP-gGsM5F-bj3G4r-fFf1xu-fFf11b-gJAkX9-gJBh32-gGtHc8-gJAt8o-gJAmtj-gJAueR-gGt5Vo-gUQtGZ-gUPaGf-gGsEWu-gGsNUx-gGrMeb-gGs8nZ-gVtNVK-8CoUn3-fGtHRW-fGtHKm-fGccYp-f7Xnvk-f8cEAj-f8cEfw-gGrJP1-gGsLun-gGrKh5-hdKhE3-hdKk91-gW29af-gW2nwA-gW2pnm-gW2ofQ-gW29bQ-gW27Km-gW2o4N-gW2ghn-gW3jYM-gW2dg3-gW28oW-gW2uxF-gGyBfD">Consumers Energy</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="http://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/usinventoryreport/archive.html">EPA estimates</a> that annual methane emissions from the domestic natural gas system were roughly 130 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent (MMTCO2-e) in 2012. If they are underestimating this number by 50 percent, we get roughly 195 MMTCO2-e of methane. Using this estimate, we can say that Aliso Canyon will increase the methane footprint of the U.S. natural gas system by about 2 percent over 12 months.</p>
<p>When we account for the entire natural gas system, including methane and <a href="http://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/carbon/?src=home-b6">CO2 emissions</a> (this includes all emissions from producing, transporting and burning natural gas), Aliso Canyon would add about 0.3 percent to the 12-month total.</p>
<h2>A bigger problem</h2>
<p>So does Aliso Canyon matter?</p>
<p>Absolutely. First, the leak has forced families in the Porter Ranch neighborhood of Los Angeles to temporarily relocate, disrupting thousands of lives.</p>
<p>Second, the leak has a real, if modest, effect on climate change. As demonstrated above, any single emissions source measured against the herculean scale of the energy system will look small, but Aliso Canyon reminds us that aging facilities that produce, transport and store natural gas need to be closely monitored.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/exfJ8VPQDTY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">An infrared camera shows the leak of methane stored in an underground cavern in northwest Los Angeles.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But perhaps most importantly, Aliso Canyon should be a signal to businesses and policymakers: methane emissions across the natural gas (and oil) supply chain need to be addressed. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/methane_cost_curve_report.pdf">One recent study estimated</a> that most leaks can be fixed at extremely low cost, and <a href="http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acs.est.5b00133">others have found</a> that a large portion of emissions come from a small number of “super-emitters,” unmonitored facilities that belch methane into the air.</p>
<p>This research suggests that well-designed state or federal regulations targeting methane emissions can get a lot of bang for the buck. The EPA has for years operated a <a href="http://www3.epa.gov/gasstar/">voluntary program</a> to encourage companies to reduce their emissions, and <a href="http://www3.epa.gov/airquality/oilandgas/">recently proposed</a> rules to reduce methane emissions at new natural gas facilities. In addition, <a href="https://www.colorado.gov/pacific/cdphe/summary-oil-and-gas-emissions-requirements">some states</a> are now requiring oil and gas producers to limit their methane emissions.</p>
<p>But these initiatives represent exceptions rather than the rule. Methane emissions from oil and gas systems are poorly understood, and in most cases unmonitored and unregulated by governmental agencies.</p>
<p>As the United States and the world move forward to tackle the challenge of climate change, Aliso Canyon should focus minds and encourage businesses and policymakers to address the broader issue: it’s time to reduce methane emissions across our oil and natural gas systems.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/53198/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Raimi receives funding from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation for research on the local fiscal impacts of oil and gas development in the United States. </span></em></p>The Aliso Canyon methane leak in California is bad, but it’s only a small portion of the methane leaked from the natural gas industry’s sprawling pipeline and storage infrastructure.Daniel Raimi, Senior research associate (Resources for the Future), Lecturer (University of Michigan Ford School of Public Policy), University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.