tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/annegret-kramp-karrenbauer-70986/articlesAnnegret Kramp-Karrenbauer – The Conversation2019-05-23T19:14:37Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1173312019-05-23T19:14:37Z2019-05-23T19:14:37ZEU elections: Six countries seen by six experts<p><em>In advance of the 2019 elections for the European Parliament, The Conversation France asked experts from six European countries to weigh in: The Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden, as well as Norway, home to a large number of EU citizens and also a member European Economic Area. They look at how the EU is perceived by their citizens and residents, issues of concern and also perspectives for the election.</em></p>
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<h2>Czech Republic: Eurosceptic, yet in no rush to leave</h2>
<p><em>Vít Hloušek, Masaryk University, Brno.</em></p>
<p>When it entered the EU in 2004, the Czech Republic was then one of the most eurosceptic members and it remains so today. In an April survey, only <a href="https://cvvm.soc.cas.cz/en/press-releases/political/international-relations/4621-public-opinion-on-the-czech-republic-s-membership-in-the-european-union-april-2018">36% of the respondents were satisfied with EU membership</a>, only 32% tend to <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/ResultDoc/download/DocumentKy/84930">trust the EU</a> and of voters, only <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/Chart/getChart/chartType/gridChart/themeKy/9/groupKy/23/savFile/661">38% tend to trust to the Parliament</a>. Yet despite the doubt, a full 62% of respondents stated that country should remain a member of the EU. </p>
<p>There is a <a href="https://shop.budrich-academic.de/produkt/europeanised-defiance-%c2%96-czech-euroscepticism-since-2004/?v=928568b84963">long tradition eurosceptic parties</a>, creating <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301637130_Narratives_of_European_Politics_in_the_Czech_Republic_A_Big_Gap_between_Politicians_and_Experts">dominant narratives</a> in the debate. In the parliament’s lower house, the hard eurosceptic party Freedom and Direct Democracy controls 11% of the seats, soft eurosceptic parties (Civic Democrats, Communists, ANO) hold 59% and pro-EU parties only 30%. Another typical feature is <a href="https://www.kas.de/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=d3b13d4c-81ad-5926-f2eb-d41cbc81f95b&groupId=252038">extremely low voter turnout</a> – just 18.2% in 2014.</p>
<p>The real campaign started only some three weeks before the poll. The dominant issue is the sought after reform of the EU presented nevertheless typically in an unclear way. The manifestos have “Europeanised” since 2004, yet the parties fail to grasp the real stakes of the EP or ignore them, so debates are more likely to deal with national issues than EU policies. Eurosceptic parties are likely to misuse voter concerns about <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/ResultDoc/download/DocumentKy/84930">immigration and terrorism</a>. So far, only parties represented already in the Czech House of Deputies <a href="https://www.politico.eu/2019-european-elections/czech-republic/">are expected to win any seats</a> “in the Brussels”.</p>
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<h2>Germany: Europhile and holding tight</h2>
<p><em>Kai Arzheimer, Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz.</em></p>
<p>In 2019, Germany remains one of the most europhile members of the EU. Only the radical right-wing <a href="https://theconversation.com/germanys-afd-how-to-understand-the-rise-of-the-right-wing-populists-84541">“Alternative for Germany”</a> (AfD) qualifies as eurosceptic, but barely – their manifesto lists a host of tests that the EU would have to fail before the AfD would demand a “Dexit”. More importantly, the leadership even changed their position on Germany’s EU membership from “negative” to “neutral” in the semi-official voting advice application <a href="http://wahl-o-mat.de/">“Wahl-o-mat.de”</a> a few days after the application went online.</p>
<p>At the other end of the spectrum, the Greens are running a high-profile pro-EU campaign spearheaded by two prominent MEPs. The other parties’ campaigns are more low-key and shaped by their general ideological positions. Everyone agrees that EU is a good thing; the parties repeat their usual core messages, be it more redistribution, more market liberalism, or just more of the same – without many specifics. To raise turnout and awareness, 10 of Germany’s 16 states hold local elections on the same day as the EP elections. Judging from the content of the election posters, these local elections may well eclipse the European contest.</p>
<p>If <a href="https://europeelects.eu/european-union/germany/">polls</a> are to be trusted, EP voting will be very much in line with recent subnational elections and the political mood: the CDU/CSU can expect around 30% of the vote, the Greens and the SPD can count on 15-20% each, and the FDP and the <a href="https://en.die-linke.de/welcome/">Die Linke</a> are polling about 7% apiece. Importantly, support for the AfD has been stable between 10% and 14% for months. As far as Germany is concerned, news of a large-scale, far-right rebellion against the EU seem exaggerated.</p>
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<h2>Italy: From founder to fragmented</h2>
<p><em>Gioacchino Garofoli, Università degli Studi dell'Insubria, Varese.</em></p>
<p>In 1957, Italy was one of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six">“inner six”</a> members of the European Economic Community, which would later become the European Union. In the early years Italians were more Europhile than other EU states – for example, in 1998, 73% expressed support. The 2007-8 economic crisis pushed citizens toward more of a Eurosceptic stance, however, with only 36% being in favour of Europe in 2018. The major concerns of Italian citizens today are immigration (66%), youth unemployment (60%) and the country’s economic situation (57%).</p>
<p>In February the two leading parties/movements against Europe, the League and the Five Star Movement (M5S), <a href="https://theconversation.com/italy-the-far-right-is-in-charge-these-election-results-prove-it-112343">took power</a>, but they are mainly sovereignist rather than anti-Europe. In particular, leaving the Eurozone or the union aren’t on the agenda. <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/26/italy-m5s-could-be-headed-for-political-disaster-after-regional-collapse.html">Support for M5S has also collapsed</a>, leading to an internal political crisis. Nicola Zingaretti, head of the center-left <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/03/italy-heads-to-the-polls-to-elect-new-leader-for-democratic-party">Democratic party</a>, is more pro-European but has struggled to find wide support.</p>
<p>Outside the political parties, societal and cultural movements are working to mobilise Italian citizens and build a new conception of a social Europe, more federalist and cohesive, that would reduce inequalities and guarantee fundamental rights. All this should give the opportunity for a big push to close up the EU’s “democratic deficit” through networks, negotiation and coherent decision-making, from cities and regions to European Union itself.</p>
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<h2>Netherlands: Once critical, now more positive</h2>
<p><em>Jacques Paulus Koenis, Maastricht University.</em></p>
<p>The Netherlands is still struggling through the comet-like rise of <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/thierry-baudet-forum-for-democracy-netherlands-5-things-to-know-about-dutch-far-rights-new-figurehead/">Thierry Baudet and his Forum for Democracy</a> (FvD), the latest addition to the tribe of Dutch populists. The party was the largest in the March provincial elections, coming in ahead of the VVD of <a href="https://www.government.nl/government/members-of-cabinet/mark-rutte">prime minister Mark Rutte</a>. The FvD overshadows even Geert Wilders’ far-right Party for Freedom (PVV), and will probably also do well.</p>
<p>Despite the results of the March elections, Dutch public opinion on the EU is more positive than five years ago. There now seems to be more willingness to look at the EU for solutions to problems such as international migration, climate change and security. It is striking that the call for a “Nexit” is now heard far less often than in the previous EU elections. Even Baudet, a populist, hardly makes a point of it, while his climate-change denialism attracts more attention. Centrist parties such as the VVD and CDA (Christian Democrats) are also more positive about the EU. In international speeches, prime minister Mark Rutte asserts pride in being a European, but in Dutch parliament he says that he considers the EU election to be <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/dutch-pm-mark-rutte-chides-white-wine-sipping-elites-for-us-president-donald-trump-bashing/">“not so relevant”</a>, probably so as not to give in too much to the populists.</p>
<p>Rutte’s VVD is expected to get the most votes in the coming elections, while Baudet’s FvD will be a good second, before <a href="https://verkiezingen.groenlinks.nl/bas-eickhout">GroenLinks with Bas Eickhout</a>, who together with Ska Keller is <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/manfred-weber-spitzenkandidat-system-unconcerned/"><em>Spitzenkandidat</em></a> (lead candidate) for the European Greens. Frans Timmermans, the <em>Spitzenkandidat</em> for the European social democrats, will not get many votes in the Netherlands because his Labour Party is severely weakened, but may hope to gather votes through the <a href="https://www.pes.eu/en/">Party of European Socialists</a> (PES).</p>
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<h2>Sweden: The environment above all</h2>
<p><em>Anamaria Dutceac Segesten, Lund University.</em></p>
<p>In the run-up to 2019 European Parliament elections, environment protection and climate change are at the top of the agenda for Swedish voters, according to the <a href="https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/samhalle/a/8mPqj1/klimat-och-miljo-i-topp-infor-eu-valet">latest opinion poll</a>. The topic has been brought to the fore by the internationally known Swedish teen Greta Thunberg, and by last year’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/19/world/europe/heat-wave-sweden-fires.html">extensive wildfires</a>. Interest in the environment is a longstanding tradition, however, both in national politics and previous EP elections, where it was among the top five concerns. In terms of issues that Swedes would like to see the EU tackle, refugees and the fight against terrorism and crime come in the second and third place. </p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://www.kantarsifo.se/rapporter-undersokningar/valjarbarometern-eu">latest poll</a>, a third of the Swedes have yet to decide for whom to vote. Turnout will be higher this time (around 58%) compared to 2014 (51%), in part driven by the climate question, a central issue for youth who will likely exercise their voting right in higher numbers now compared to 2019. According to a Novus poll, 66% of the 18-29 segment trust the EU, more than the population as a whole (59% according to <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinionmobile/index.cfm/Survey/getSurveyDetail/surveyKy/2215">Eurobarometer</a>.</p>
<p>Even though the Greens own the environmental issue, the party seems to be on a <a href="https://www.kantarsifo.se/rapporter-undersokningar/valjarbarometern-eu">downhill course</a>, with just 11% support, down 4% compared to 2014. However, the “biggest loss” prize goes to the Liberals, polling at 3,6%, below the 4% threshold. This risks to be the first election since 1999 in which the categorically pro-EU party will not send any representatives to the European Parliament. At the other end of the political spectrum, the anti-immigration eurosceptic Sweden Democrats are polling at 16.9%, up 7% compared to 2014, when they obtained nearly 10% of the vote and two EP seats.</p>
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<h2>Norway: Linked to the EU, yet disconnected</h2>
<p><em>John Erik Fossum, University of Oslo.</em></p>
<p>Norway is not a member of the European Union and thus does not elect representatives to the parliament, but two factors that make the upcoming elections important for the country. First, more than 7% of the country’s residents are citizens of EU countries and are thus entitled to vote. Second, as a member of the European Economic Area, Norway is subject to roughly 75% of EU legal provisions.</p>
<p>A survey of the mainstream media shows a number of references to the EP elections, and some of the actors and issues that figure prominently on the European political scene are front and centre in Norway – Emmanuel Macron in France, Angela Merkel and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/07/annegret-kramp-karrenbauer-elected-merkels-successor-as-christian-democrat-leader">Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer</a> in Germany, and Victor Orban in Hungary. However, the main focus is on political leaders not parliamentarians. Other than Manfred Weber of the German European People’s Party, there are basically no other references to other MEPs.</p>
<p>The lack of direct EP representation affects engagement and debate. The Norwegian political parties are not in election mode which affects attention and media reporting. That becomes patchy because it is disconnected from the EP election cycle. The absence of opinion polls further amplifies this, leaving Norwegian citizens disconnected. They cannot understand themselves as participants empowered to send representatives to Brussels, and so are reduced to spectators who watch the unfolding events that will bear on them significantly.</p>
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<h2>European Parliament seat projection</h2>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275149/original/file-20190517-69182-jlhegf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275149/original/file-20190517-69182-jlhegf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275149/original/file-20190517-69182-jlhegf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275149/original/file-20190517-69182-jlhegf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275149/original/file-20190517-69182-jlhegf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275149/original/file-20190517-69182-jlhegf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275149/original/file-20190517-69182-jlhegf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The European Parliament will be held May 23–26, 2019. An interactive version of this graphic is accessible on europeelects.eu/ep2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://europeelects.eu/ep2019/">Europe Elects</a></span>
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</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117331/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Erik Fossum receives funding as coordinator of the Eu3 H2020 project</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vít Hloušek receives funding from Czech Science Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anamaria Dutceac Segesten, Gioacchino Garofoli, Jacques Paulus Koenis et Kai Arzheimer ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur poste universitaire.</span></em></p>Ahead of the 2019 EU elections, experts from the Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden and Norway look at how the EU is perceived, key issues and perspectives for the election.Anamaria Dutceac Segesten, Senior Lecturer in European Studies, Lund UniversityGioacchino Garofoli, Professeur d’économie, Università degli Studi dell’InsubriaJacques Paulus Koenis, Professor of Social Philosophy, Maastricht UniversityJohn Erik Fossum, Professor, ARENA Centre for European Studies, University of OsloKai Arzheimer, Professor of Political Science, Johannes Gutenberg University of MainzVít Hloušek, Associate Professor of Political Science, Masaryk UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1101722019-01-21T18:41:16Z2019-01-21T18:41:16ZThe Liberal Party is failing women miserably compared to other democracies, and needs quotas<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/254691/original/file-20190121-100279-1g2j4wu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Kelly O'Dwyer last week announced she would not be re-contesting her seat of Higgins at the 2019 elections.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Ellen Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Look around the world this week and you see women exercising power and influence everywhere. In the United States, House Speaker <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/01/why-nancy-pelosi-wont-compromise-border-wall/580516/">Nancy Pelosi is wrangling US President Donald Trump</a> over his shutdown of federal government. In the UK, Prime Minister <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/20/theresa-may-cross-party-consensus-brexit-backstop-tory-split">Theresa May doggedly pursues Brexit</a>. Yvette Cooper, chair of the British Parliament’s Home Affairs Select Committee and described by some as <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-deal-vote-theresa-may-second-referendum-vote-election-yvette-cooper-a8736216.html">the Labour opposition’s “alternative leader”, is bringing forward legislation</a> to try to head off a <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-hard-soft-what-is-the-difference-uk-eu-single-market-freedom-movement-theresa-may-a7342591.html">“hard” Brexit</a>.</p>
<p>In Germany, CDU leader and likely Angela Merkel successor <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/18/germany-politicians-business-leaders-letter-brexit-the-times">Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer co-authored a public letter to the British people</a> urging them to remain in the European Union. And from New Zealand, Prime Minister <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/01/20/whatever-britain-decides-new-place-world-new-zealand-stands/">Jacinda Ardern wrote a comment piece</a> for the London <em>Telegraph</em> expressing solidarity whichever way Britain goes. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-she-prepares-to-leave-politics-germanys-angela-merkel-has-left-her-mark-at-home-and-abroad-105957">As she prepares to leave politics, Germany's Angela Merkel has left her mark at home and abroad</a>
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<p>And in Australia? Reportage involving senior women in politics is dominated by Morrison government cabinet minister <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-odwyers-decision-turns-the-spotlight-onto-bishop-110159">Kelly O’Dwyer quitting</a> her prime Melbourne seat of Higgins, fellow Liberal <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/fresh-talent-liberal-senator-jane-hume-bails-out-of-race-to-replace-kelly-o-dwyer-20190121-p50slm.html">Senator Jane Hume ruling out running for it</a>, and speculation about <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/01/19/rumours-of-julie-bishop-quitting-parliament/">whether or not former Foreign Minister Julie Bishop will, like O’Dwyer, quit politics</a> at the forthcoming federal election too. It is a sharp contrast. What is going on?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-odwyers-decision-turns-the-spotlight-onto-bishop-110159">View from The Hill: O'Dwyer's decision turns the spotlight onto Bishop</a>
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<p>The UK has already had two female prime ministers in May (since 2016) and Margaret Thatcher (1979-1990) – the latter, after Winston Churchill, the most significant British prime minister of the 20th century. This is not to say politics is easy for women in Britain – far from it. Political <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-faces-more-gender-based-abuse-than-jeremy-corbyn-report/">attacks on May are three-times as likely to be gender-based</a> as those on Opposition Leader Jeremy Corbyn.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/19/world/europe/jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may-stupid-woman.html">Claims Corbyn called May a “stupid woman” in parliament</a> got traction because of the widely perceived implicit sexism of Corbyn-era Labour, which tends to be overshadowed by <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45030552">controversy over its more blatant antisemitism</a>. Female MPs come under sustained social media attacks of the most violent and reprehensible kind, something Labour’s Yvette Cooper and Jess Phillips have campaigned against prominently <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/jul/28/yvette-cooper-twitter-response-rape-threats">again</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jun/18/vile-online-abuse-against-women-mps-needs-to-be-challenged-now">again</a>.</p>
<p>It is in this climate that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/nov/23/thomas-mair-found-guilty-of-jo-cox-murder">Labour MP Jo Cox was murdered</a> by white supremacist Thomas Mair during the Brexit referendum campaign in 2016.</p>
<p>But while politics is incredibly tough for women in Britain, they hang in and fight on, across the political spectrum. This is because in Britain women’s presence in politics has been normalised. There’s no sending them back to the kitchen. To an extent which should not be necessary, they are battle-hardened. Male opponents know they will not go away.</p>
<p>Equally in the US, women in politics will not be seen off. The pronounced misogyny of President Donald Trump stirred rather than cowed women who stormed the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections, <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/12/18/record-number-women-in-congress/">creating an all-time high in congresswomen’s numbers</a>.</p>
<p>Democrat Nancy Pelosi prevailed against significant internal challenge and external opposition to be elected Speaker. From this position she is prominently calling Trump’s bluff and, since the government shutdown, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/pelosi-is-winning-battle-with-trump-because-she-s-better-at-her-job-20190121-p50skx.html">bettering him in the rhetorical struggle for decent government</a>.</p>
<p>In New Zealand, women in politics has long been business as usual. Ardern, elected in 2017, is the country’s third woman prime minister after Helen Clark (1999-2008) and Jenny Shipley (1997-1999). One could go on and on, citing the normalisation of women in politics in Sri Lanka, India, Israel, Iceland, Denmark, Pakistan, Indonesia, Canada, Germany and elsewhere.</p>
<p>Women have, often with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/quotas-are-not-pretty-but-they-work-liberal-women-should-insist-on-them-103517">help of quotas</a>, been accepted as regulars in political battle in all these places, sometimes rising to the political equivalent of generals and supreme commanders just like the men, many of whom might not like it but know it is an inescapable – and, in fact, reasonable - part of contemporary life.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/quotas-are-not-pretty-but-they-work-liberal-women-should-insist-on-them-103517">Quotas are not pretty but they work – Liberal women should insist on them</a>
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<p>The military metaphor is unfortunate, but in this context useful to explain through analogy what is going on by contrast with women in the senior levels of the Morrison government.</p>
<p>May and Pelosi are playing the long game – operating strategically – in pursuit of specific political outcomes irrespective of the extra, gendered-tier of political attack to which they are subject. They do this in the confidence that women in their parties and parliaments are political “regulars”, in the business of politics for good.</p>
<p>In Australia, the presence of women in politics has been normalised other than in the Liberal and National parties. Labor’s Julia Gillard was prime minister from 2010 to 2013. If Labor’s sustained poll lead holds through to election day, Opposition deputy-leader Tanya Plibersek is likely to become deputy prime minister this year. The Greens have been, and before them the Australian Democrats were more often than not, led by women. Australia’s flagship far right-winger, Pauline Hanson, is a woman. </p>
<p>But to be a woman in the Liberal or National parties is still to be a political “irregular” – one of a group of resented interlopers, tiny in number, whom many male colleagues hope can be driven away.</p>
<p>Female LNP leavers manifest this – not just O’Dwyer and, likely, the prominently-snubbed Bishop when her decision finally crystallises – but those like Julia Banks who have <a href="https://theconversation.com/liberal-julia-banks-defects-to-crossbench-as-scott-morrison-confirms-election-in-may-107715">left the Liberal Party</a> and gone to the crossbench, and Liberal fellow travellers like Cathy McGowan and Kerryn Phelps who sit as independents alongside her. </p>
<p>It seems the position of women in the Liberal and National parties is too fragile, too brittle, for them to stand and fight like regulars. Rather, like guerillas on the wrong end of the power asymmetry women face within the Morrison government, they are withdrawing from the battlefield. It will be up to others to stand and fight another day. </p>
<p>That fight cannot be won without critical mass. Women in the Liberal and National parties need to embrace quotas and they need to do it now. They will never be numerous enough to achieve the status of “regulars” reached by women in most of the rest of the democratic world otherwise.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110172/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Wallace receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>The departure of Liberal women is a sign that they have always been outsiders within the party, and by world standards the gender imbalance is stark and woefully out of touch.Chris Wallace, ARC DECRA Fellow, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1059572018-11-01T23:49:56Z2018-11-01T23:49:56ZAs she prepares to leave politics, Germany’s Angela Merkel has left her mark at home and abroad<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243356/original/file-20181031-122153-112llwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=153%2C24%2C4992%2C3452&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">As German Chancellor for 13 years, Merkel has been a dominant figure in European politics.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/EPA/Clemens Bilan</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>German Chancellor Angela Merkel <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/29/angela-merkel-wont-seek-re-election-as-cdu-party-leader">this week announced</a> she would not stand for re-election again, after being a towering figure in European politics for more than a decade.</p>
<p>An enormously popular leader at her peak, in recent state elections it became all too clear that Merkel had become an electoral liability for her party. She had been safe when it was just the lunatic right wing of the so-called Alternative for Germany Party (AfD) that demanded her exit. But now that her once unassailable grip on centrist voters has loosened, she had no choice but to go. Her term will end in 2021.</p>
<h2>What next for Germany?</h2>
<p>Currently, the idea is that Merkel will allow the next generation in her party, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), to refashion its approach to Germany’s domestic problems while she continues to represent German and European interests abroad. Whether her successor, who must rebuild the electoral base of the party, will allow her to stay that long remains an open question.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-angela-merkel-has-become-and-remains-one-of-the-worlds-most-successful-political-leaders-80389">How Angela Merkel has become – and remains – one of the world's most successful political leaders</a>
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<p>Who the CDU chooses will reveal just what the party’s preferred strategy for rebuilding will be. The AfD has admitted it will struggle for relevance if the CDU elects immigration critic and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics-merkel-spahn/merkel-critic-spahn-also-wants-party-leadership-sources-idUSKCN1N31HD">arch-conservative Jens Spahn</a> as leader.</p>
<p>And the Greens will lose centrist voters if <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/30/angela-merkel-exit-plan-sparks-succession-battle-party-ranks">Merkel’s favourite, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer</a>, emerges as the next CDU leader. The only other current serious contender is serial corporate board member Friedrich Merz. He left politics in a fit of pique after being sidelined early in Merkel’s reign, but has now returned.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243359/original/file-20181031-78459-9gb62u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243359/original/file-20181031-78459-9gb62u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243359/original/file-20181031-78459-9gb62u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243359/original/file-20181031-78459-9gb62u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243359/original/file-20181031-78459-9gb62u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243359/original/file-20181031-78459-9gb62u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243359/original/file-20181031-78459-9gb62u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer is Merkel’s preferred replacement as CDU leader.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/EPA/Omer Messinger</span></span>
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<p>Merkel’s waning popularity has not only left a vacuum within the CDU but also in the other traditional governing party, the Social Democratic Party (SPD). The SPD was domesticated and ultimately rendered irrelevant by Merkel’s tactic of forming coalition governments with it.</p>
<p>The SPD is arguably now <a href="https://global.handelsblatt.com/politics/spd-hesse-gloomy-outlook-germany-976676">a minor centrist rump party</a> rather than the social democratic juggernaut it was at its strongest. Its current death spiral is just as important a part of Merkel’s domestic political legacy as milestones such as marriage equality, the end of compulsory military service and an obstinate refusal to allow any national debt, even in good economic times, to pay for infrastructure.</p>
<h2>Her influence abroad</h2>
<p>Internationally, Merkel is seen in both European and global affairs as having been a stable, calming influence in the volatile age of Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, who in their own ways have approached the global status quo with dissatisfaction. Compared to them, her approach has certainly been cautious, indeed often deliberately reactive.</p>
<p>Yet there has been an overarching logic to her foreign policy. Merkel has used the existing structures of international power such as the United Nations and the G7 and G20 to coax reluctant nations towards international norms. Her assumption has always been that global order and stability best serve Germany’s international and economic interests.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-asked-germans-what-they-really-felt-after-angela-merkel-opened-the-borders-to-refugees-in-2015-103634">We asked Germans what they really felt after Angela Merkel opened the borders to refugees in 2015</a>
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<p>But she has rocked the boat herself on occasion. Her laudable (if reactive) 2015-16 intervention to allow more than a million war-ravaged <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/08/angela-merkel-refugee-crisis-europe">refugees to enter Germany</a> will be the one thing that will see her remembered in 100 years. Post-Assad statues of Merkel in the squares of Damascus and Aleppo are not hard to imagine.</p>
<p>But the move surprised and angered many neighbouring countries, particularly those that were subsequently leaned upon to both close their external borders on behalf of Germany and take in a share of “Merkel’s” refugees.</p>
<p>Certainly, no statues of Merkel will be erected in Athens. She will be less fondly remembered by Greeks for imposing Germany’s hard-line stance on debt refinancing. Many in southern Europe (and elsewhere) viewed this as <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/02/how-germany-gamed-the-euro-and-worsened-the-crisis/252754/">exacerbating the debt crisis</a> so as to assist northern European, and particularly German, banks.</p>
<p>Merkel’s almost evangelical stance on fiscal rectitude has not mellowed, nor has her cautious approach to furthering European Union economic integration. In a move seen as shoring up German economic sovereignty and interests, she famously rebuffed French President Emmanuel Macron’s <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f17fe7e8-425f-11e8-93cf-67ac3a6482fd">ambitious plans</a> to further bind the EU together financially. Merkel insisted that EU finances remain the preserve of intergovernmental negotiations and not that of a supranational EU treasurer.</p>
<p>On the other hand, a desire to defend the European project has motivated <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/30/angela-merkel-germany-brexit-uk-eu-cohesion">Merkel’s approach to Brexit</a>, which stunned her as much as every other German. Some British pundits confess amazement that she hasn’t yet fixed their self-imposed problems for them, but Merkel has shown no inclination to pull Britain’s chestnuts out of the fire for them.</p>
<p>Beyond Europe, she is seen as having worked reasonably well with Putin, probably because she has demonstrated an understanding of Russia’s concerns about an EU and NATO that comes right up to its borders. Merkel was one of the few leaders at the NATO summit in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/30/world/europe/30iht-nato.4.18268641.html">Bucharest in 2008</a> who opposed US plans to bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO immediately.</p>
<p>Certainly, it was Merkel who was seen as indispensable when Russia annexed <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/eastern-europe-caucasus/germany-s-real-role-ukraine-crisis">Crimea</a>. She maintained a fine line between condemning the annexation and convincing Putin to go no further against a weak and exposed Ukraine.</p>
<p>Although she was friendly with President Barack Obama, under Trump the US has become everything that the pro-order, pro-status-quo Merkel cannot abide. The feeling is famously mutual. Trump routinely points to German prosperity and stability as a dire warning of what might happen to the US if modest measures towards equality and humanitarianism were to be embraced. The contrast between the images of Merkel’s response to Syrian refugees and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/26/us/politics/trump-mexico-border.html">Trump’s virtual declaration of war</a> against a modest band of Latin American refugees could not be greater.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243358/original/file-20181031-78456-rz1vop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243358/original/file-20181031-78456-rz1vop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243358/original/file-20181031-78456-rz1vop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243358/original/file-20181031-78456-rz1vop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243358/original/file-20181031-78456-rz1vop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243358/original/file-20181031-78456-rz1vop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243358/original/file-20181031-78456-rz1vop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Angela Merkel and Donald Trump’s relationship has been frosty.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/EPA/Clemens Bilan</span></span>
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<p>As Trump continues to set fire to the organs of international diplomacy and the US races towards self-selected imperial decline, Merkel has continued to build new and often surprising international networks. When Trump began a trade war with China and threatened Iran with annihilation, Merkel not only <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/angela-merkel-eager-to-improve-chinese-ties-as-she-touches-down-in-beijing/a-43905429">visited Beijing</a> but also very publicly sought Chinese assistance to counter American sabre-rattling in the Persian Gulf.</p>
<p>Merkel is also working with France’s Macron, Turkey’s Erdogan and Russia’s Putin on the question of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-turkey/russia-germany-france-and-turkey-call-for-lasting-ceasefire-constitutional-meeting-for-syria-idUSKCN1N10HU">peace in Syria</a>. It’s a quartet that very pointedly does not include <a href="https://news.usni.org/2018/10/30/french-ambassador-says-washington-help-shape-syrias-future">the once indispensable US</a> (let alone post-Brexit UK).</p>
<p>Merkel has also leapt towards new opportunities in Africa. Whereas Trump might disparage African countries as “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jan/12/unkind-divisive-elitist-international-outcry-over-trumps-shithole-countries-remark">shitholes</a>”, Merkel’s approach has been active engagement. This week she hosted <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/chancellor-angela-merkel-holds-berlin-summit-for-compact-with-africa-project/a-46065155">12 African leaders in Berlin</a> to bolster Germany’s standing in Africa. Germany has also <a href="https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/muentefering-namibia/2131566">publicly atoned</a> (if not paid compensation) for its colonial-era misrule in Africa.</p>
<p>Alongside this, <a href="https://www.bundeswehr.de/portal/a/bwde/start/einsaetze/ueberblick/zahlen/!ut/p/z1/hY7BTsMwDIafhUOusdWKbnALYxfUSZO6iTUX5K6mLQpJlWYN4unJNI5U-ObPvz7_oOEE2tI8dBQGZ8mkvdbF29O6PJTZQ5Y9V9UG1XFbHLeVyrEo4PW_gE5nXBiFULUMdXKsFh27FAIN-oNm-pKj88FwkHS-NoS6J9sa3ruzuoEX0J1xza26sk2-7kB7fmfPXl58wn0I46NAgTFGyYOdKHzL5mJbniL3XrYs8PqFjEAS-JtoosApkA9_eXs3Jb7og_HzFDG_N3Op7n4ArD6GTg!!/dz/d5/L2dBISEvZ0FBIS9nQSEh/#Z7_B8LTL2922DSSC0AUE6UESA30M0">German troops</a> are quietly working away in Mali and Sudan (as well as other far-flung destinations such as Afghanistan, Kosovo and Lebanon). </p>
<p>Merkel’s courageous stance in favour of refugees will be remembered, as will her inflexible approach to European economics. But what will probably be forgotten is the extent to which she has taken economic engagement with Asia and Africa seriously.</p>
<p>As a technocrat rather than a conviction politician, she will leave the chancellorship believing that Germany’s best chances lie in engaging with the coming economic powers and avoiding injury from the decline of the US global order.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105957/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt Fitzpatrick currently receives funding from the Australian Research Council (DP180100118). </span></em></p>After 18 years as leader of her party, and 13 as German Chancellor, Angela Merkel has announced that this will be her last term. How has she changed Germany and the world?Matt Fitzpatrick, Associate Professor in International History, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1059042018-10-30T14:07:54Z2018-10-30T14:07:54ZAngela Merkel: how long can she stay as German chancellor?<p>After 18 years as chairwoman of the conservative Christian Democratic Union and 13 years as German chancellor, Angela Merkel surprised the public and her own party colleagues by <a href="https://theconversation.com/angela-merkel-to-step-aside-heres-what-it-means-for-germany-and-what-to-expect-next-105875">announcing</a> her intention to withdraw from politics. It is somewhat typical for Merkel that she delivered this statement in an unemotional manner. Rather than ending her political career with a bang, she promised to ensure a smooth transition. Merkel announced that she will stand down as party leader in December 2018 but wants to remain chancellor until the next federal election in 2021. But can she last that long? </p>
<p>At the moment it appears unlikely that Merkel will remain in office for another three years. Many hold her responsible for the <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-asked-germans-what-they-really-felt-after-angela-merkel-opened-the-borders-to-refugees-in-2015-103634">refugee crisis in 2015</a>, the rise of the right-wing populist party <a href="https://theconversation.com/germanys-afd-how-to-understand-the-rise-of-the-right-wing-populists-84541">Alternative für Deutschland</a> (AfD), and the poor results for her Christian Democratic Union party (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) in recent state elections. In her statement, Merkel admitted that her coalition government had put on a poor show, and that it will take more than cosmetic changes to improve the image of the grand coalition between the CDU and the Social Democratic Party (SPD).</p>
<h2>Who has eyes on the top job?</h2>
<p>SPD leader Andrea Nahles announced that she has <a href="https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/heute/nahles-will-weitermachen-spd-chefin-schliesst-ruecktritt-aus-100.html">no intention of stepping down</a> but she, too, is under enormous pressure after her party’s disastrous results in the recent state elections in Bavaria and Hesse. If the current trend continues, the elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg in 2019 will bring further defeats for Merkel’s CDU and Nahles’s SPD. There can be no doubt that the easiest thing for both women would be to quit now and leave it to others to sort out the mess. So, why don’t they quit?</p>
<p>Nahles says she has <a href="https://www.stern.de/lifestyle/leute/-ps-junkie--andrea-nahles-und-ihr-schnelles-hobby-7761618.html">dreamt</a> of becoming chancellor since she was 18. As SPD chairwoman, she is closer to that dream than ever, and she is too persistent to give up without a fight. Merkel was elected chancellor four times in a row, and has repeatedly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/01/angela-merkel-theresa-may-forbes-100-most-powerful-women-list">topped the Forbes list</a> of the most powerful women in the world. Right now, she stays in office not simply because she wants to cling to power (although this might have played a role in her decision to stand for re-election in 2018). Her decision for a step-by-step withdrawal was a clear signal to the AfD: I leave on my own terms and not because I am afraid of you.</p>
<p>Perhaps unsurprisingly, the AfD leadership views the matter differently. At a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WaP8qUro4PE">press conference</a> a few hours after Merkel’s statement, AfD leaders Alexander Gauland and Alice Weidel declared that her withdrawal from politics is proof of their own successes. It’s certainly true that Merkel has been one of the favourite enemies of the AfD and other right-wing populists. The slogan “Merkel needs to go” (Merkel muss weg) became their rallying cry. Activists shouted it to disrupt her election rallies, and disseminated it on bumper stickers, posters and t-shirts. Now that Merkel is willing and ready to go, it becomes obvious how short-sighted this campaign was. One cannot help but think that the AfD leaders have not thought as far ahead as to work out what happens next. Like many other commentators, Weidel and Gauland declared that they are anxious to find out who will succeed Merkel.</p>
<h2>Starting gun</h2>
<p>Behind closed doors, leading members of the CDU (including Merkel) have been discussing Merkel’s succession for years. At this stage, three bids for the leadership seem to have good prospects of success. The first contender is Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, sometimes referred to as Merkel’s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldbF_x2iwEc">mini-me</a>. Although Kramp-Karrenbauer is keen to emphasise that she does not agree with all of Merkel’s decisions, the two women share a pragmatic approach to politics, and Merkel has made no secret of the fact that she hopes she will be succeeded by Kramp-Karrenbauer.</p>
<p>However, many in the party want to see a clear break with the Merkel era and might support Jens Spahn or Friedrich Merz. Spahn is one of the most prominent critics of Merkel’s immigration policy and is likely to win the support of those who want a young and conservative chancellor. Merz, a free-market conservative, is an old rival of Merkel. He was the first to announce his intention to run for the leadership and quickly received strong support from business leaders. Currently, he works for the German branch of the global investment management company BlackRock. Unsurprisingly, there was no public response from Merkel.</p>
<p>In 2005, when Merkel was first trying to become chancellor, the CDU <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/angie-merkel-in-row-with-rolling-stones-over-song-504047.html">used the Rolling Stones’ hit “Angie”</a> to celebrate and promote their first female leader at election rallies. Now, that it is time to say goodbye, we should remember, despite all the legitimate criticisms of her, that she was one of the few politicians who stood up to the AfD.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105904/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katharina Karcher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>She won’t stand again in 2021 – and it’s unlikely she’ll last until then either.Katharina Karcher, Lecturer in German studies, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1058752018-10-29T15:44:37Z2018-10-29T15:44:37ZAngela Merkel to step aside: here’s what it means for Germany and what to expect next<p>German politics has been dominated by two parties since the end of the war – the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats. Yet, recent election results in the southern state of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/14/bavaria-poll-humiliation-for-angela-merkel-conservative-allies">Bavaria</a> and in the central region of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/28/merkel-suffers-another-election-setback-key-german-state-of-hesse">Hesse</a> are evidence that they are in big trouble. </p>
<p>This became even more apparent when, the day after the Hesse election, Angela Merkel, Germany’s long-time leader, announced that she would not stand again as Chancellor in the 2021 election and wouldn’t put herself forward for re-election as leader of the Christian Democrats (CDU) in December.</p>
<p>The logic behind this decision is simple: Merkel recognises that her brand is not the electoral asset that it once was and that the need to groom a successor is getting ever more urgent. All eyes will now be keeping a close on on the likes of Jens Spahn, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer and Armin Laschet – the three front-runners to take over as CDU leader. </p>
<h2>Tough at the top</h2>
<p>It’s certainly not implausible that German party politics is undergoing a seismic shift. The Christian democrat parties – CDU and their regional partner the CSU – and the Social Democrats (SPD) continue to govern nationally as part of a longstanding grand coalition but are seeing their vote shares and opinion poll ratings slump to historic lows. Meanwhile, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is, since the Hesse election, now present in all 16 regional parliaments plus the European Parliament and the Bundestag. Both the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) and the socialist Left Party have solid bases of support that see them maintaining a firm presence in national politics. The Greens, meanwhile, are flying high in the national opinion polls and have performed admirably in recent regional elections. </p>
<p>The two main parties do nonetheless now have some time to try to shape the national narrative in a way that suits them. The CDU will try to do that under a new party leader, the SPD almost certainly with the leaders they currently have. That both parties are managing a way out of the unloved grand coalition is clear, but that way out cannot begin any time soon. Both parties are desperate to find alternatives to governing with each other, but, for now, these alternatives are not clear enough and reliable enough to be viable. The only option is to keep calm and carry on.</p>
<p>The CDU/CSU and SPD are helped by the fact that Germany is moving into a period of relative electoral tranquillity. There are no major electoral contests between now and May 2019, the date of both elections to the European parliament and also to the smallest of Germany’s 16 states, Bremen. The next major regional elections take place in the eastern states of Brandenburg and Saxony on September 1 2019. They are quickly followed by another contest in Thuringia (again in the east) on October 27 2019.</p>
<p>This gives the German government some breathing space. Politicians in both the CDU and the SPD are well aware that internal bickering has badly hamstrung the government. Stories of <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-faces-investigation-over-claims-her-defence-department-mishandled-millions-of-euros-qxxz9xfnx">scandal</a> and intrigue far outweigh discussions of any substantive achievements. Both Merkel and Andrea Nahles (the leader of the SPD) know that simply has to change. </p>
<p>Neither Merkel nor Nahles has the slightest interest in collapsing the coalition and calling new elections. That way electoral disaster lies for both parties. They, and majorities in their parties, know that they somehow have to make the national government work. Nahles announced that this will involve a (newly declared) mid-term assessment of whether there’s enough evidence of SPD achievements to merit carrying on. In reality, this will be for internal consumption as the SPD will – in all likelihood – still be a long way from strong enough to risk pulling out of the coalition and prompting new elections. The two parties are subsequently doomed to govern together for at least the medium term.</p>
<h2>2019: a bellwether year?</h2>
<p>The fact that 2019 will be the year of eastern regional elections will be significant. German national elections are often won and lost in the east. The Greens’ two <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/the-surprising-success-of-germanys-green-party/a-45864675">impressive successes</a> in 2018 have both come in western regions where their post-materialist supporter base is much stronger. This shouldn’t deflect from the considerable achievements of the Greens in Bavaria and Hesse, but eastern Germany will be a totally different challenge.</p>
<p>It’s worth remembering that in the last regional election in Brandenburg in 2014 the Greens polled 6.2%. In both Saxony and Thuringia (also in 2014) they managed identical scores of 5.7%. At the 2017 national election the Greens managed 5%, 4.6% and 4.1% respectively in those three states. Compare this to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46012098">19.5% in Hesse</a> and <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/bavaria-merkel-afd-greens-election-result/">17.5% in Bavaria</a> and it’s clear that the Greens have a long way to go before they are flying as high in the East as they currently are in the West.</p>
<p>An interesting indicator of where Germany may ultimately end up by autumn 2021 (the date of the next scheduled federal election) could come in where disgruntled CDU voters go in each of the 2019 eastern elections. In Hesse, <a href="https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article182880406/Landtagswahl-Hessen-2018-An-diese-Parteien-verloren-CDU-und-SPD-die-meisten-Waehler.html">Infratest Dimap</a>, one of Germany’s leading opinion poll agencies, estimated that around 99,000 former CDU voters opted to support the Greens. Around 96,000 went to the AfD. Only 35,000 went to the CDU’s long-time ally in federal politics, the Free Democrats.</p>
<p>In Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia the CDU doesn’t have as much to lose as it did in Bavaria and Hesse, having polled 26.7%, 26.9% and 28.8% last time out. But, since 1990 the eastern electorate has been – at times markedly – more volatile than that in western Germany. Voters can and do change their preferences, and sometimes quite drastically. If the <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-green-party-how-it-evolved/a-40586834">Greens</a> are again able to pick up around the same number of voters from the CDU as the AfD does, then we can take that as a fair indication that their supporter base really is growing nationally. Given that the AfD is no newcomer in those three states (it took 12.5%, 9.7% and 10.6% of the vote respectively in each of the last regional elections in those states), it won’t be the <a href="https://theconversation.com/germanys-afd-how-to-understand-the-rise-of-the-right-wing-populists-84541">fresh upstart</a> that it has been until now.</p>
<p>Predicting national trends from regional polls <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/10/15/bavarias-christian-social-union-partys-campaign-strategy-flopped-heres-what-this-means-for-germany-and-europe/?utm_term=.458b9107e885">can be a dangerous game</a>. But given that the German government now has the best part of a year to look and act like a government that knows what it’s doing, the three eastern regional elections will be an excellent time to take stock of what all the trends that have appeared in 2018 actually mean. Until then, expect to see muddling along aplenty.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105875/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Hough does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>German politics is experiencing a major shift. Merkel knows her time is up.Daniel Hough, Professor of Politics, University of SussexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1041802018-10-17T16:23:49Z2018-10-17T16:23:49ZIt’s only a baby, right? Prime ministers, women and parenthood<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241043/original/file-20181017-41150-1oslrdu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C16%2C1200%2C734&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Neve Te Aroha Ardern, just three months old, discovers UN headquarters in New York with his father and mother, who holds the highest political office in New Zealand. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the summer of 2018, New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Arden returned from her <a href="http://time.com/5356073/new-zealand-jacinda-ardern-maternity-leave/">six-week period of maternity leave</a> to take up the reins of government. The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/26/jacinda-ardern-pregnant-new-zealand-baby-mania">media interest</a> in her pregnancy and her capabilities to do her job seem at odds with the lives of millions of working mothers already doing two “jobs”. Are there ongoing differences in the treatment of mothers and fathers’ careers or is politics just different?</p>
<h2>Careers and careers in politics</h2>
<p>All over the world working women are having children, taking leave and returning to work yet somehow it seems that being a political leader is one of the last bastions of conservatism, particularly in relation to the impact of parenting on the capability to perform at work. Indeed in resigning from her post at the US State Department Anne-Marie Slaughter famously wrote <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/07/why-women-still-cant-have-it-all/309020/">“women can’t have it all”</a>. </p>
<p>The press interest in fathers in political office has been more limited and focused on whether they would take their right to parental leave, albeit short, rather than if they could still do the job – examples include the Finnish prime minister <a href="http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1998-05-14/news/9805140297_1_paternity-leave-prime-minister-paavo-lipponen-finnish">Paavo Lipponen</a> in 1997 and the UK’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/1999/nov/19/tonyblair.uk">Tony Blair</a> in 1999.</p>
<p>There is in fact just one other example of a female prime minister having a child while in office, that of the late Benazir Bhutto who gave birth to a son in 1990. At the time, opposition politicians poured scorn on her ability to be a new mother and leader. Even now we see many women political leaders rising to the top who do not have children (e.g., Teresa May, Angela Merkel, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julia_Gillard">Julia Gillard</a> etc.) or who have followed more traditional trajectories and had children before their political career (e.g., <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annegret_Kramp-Karrenbauer">Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer</a>, Hilary Clinton, etc.).</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Broadcase of ABC News (Australia), September 25, 2018.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Everyday pressures without the publicity</h2>
<p>In other professional fields fewer questions are openly asked of top women when they have children, for example in the tech sector [<a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/sheryl-sandbery-pregnancy-at-work_n_4338247">Sheryl Sandberg</a> at Facebook or <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marissa_Mayer">Marissa Mayer</a> at Yahoo. Yet these questions are not necessarily absent, just less public.</p>
<p>The publicity on Jacinda Arden is a lens on more subtle social processes, gendered questions and social norms that are still at work. Indeed these norms are still shaping who is, and who is not, seen as appropriate for certain careers or what women and men “should” do as parents. The recent furore over boosting men’s grades to exclude women from <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/03/world/asia/japan-medical-school-test-scores-women.html">medical school</a> highlights an extreme of these views that persist more subtly in many contexts.</p>
<p>Research on careers and work life highlights how parenting and having a career is a challenging balancing act. We often talk here about <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0018726709336500">work-life balance</a> but it is perhaps more accurate to talk of <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09585192.2016.1262890">work-life integration</a> as parents manage the borders between working and family lives. The reality is that for many a harmonious “balance” is elusive and borders are permeable.</p>
<p>But it is not necessarily a negative balancing act. In focusing on the borders, researchers have focused on the interaction between work and family domains and analysed what is known as spillover. This <a href="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/02683940910959762">spillover</a> can be negative where work has negative consequences (conflict) on family life, for example postponing holidays due to a work emergency or, vice versa, stress of a family emergency impacting upon performance at work. There can also be positive spillovers whereby each domain, work to family or family to work, enriches the other. For example, competences in one domain may help in the other, or benefits may arise from an accumulation of roles in terms of greater wellbeing.</p>
<h2>Not the same, not equal</h2>
<p>The challenge is that these work-family domains and borders, and associated spill overs, are no necessarily viewed the same way for women and men. Research differentiates between the positive effects on men of fatherhood compared to the negative career consequences often experienced by women. The so-called <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0003122412469204">fatherhood wage premium</a> and/or perception of maturity and reliability experienced by men is in contrast to the <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/001979390305600204">motherhood wage penalty</a>, more restricted job opportunities and the “mommy track”. Furthermore, the positive development opportunities for men in terms of fathers’ family-work enrichment can be perceived as <a href="https://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=https://www.forbes.com/sites/moiraforbes/2017/05/12/7-leadership-lessons-you-can-learn-from-working-mothers">greater than for women</a>.</p>
<p>Similarly, family domains are not equal. In many countries women now account for more or less half of the working population and working mothers are increasingly the norm. Yet women with children often adjust their working patterns and this is often put down to the unchanging nature of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2018/feb/17/dirty-secret-why-housework-gender-gap">gender division of unpaid work</a> in the home – women do more than men in the family domain.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/BkRrm87F8Cb","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>Work together as a household</h2>
<p>The story of Jacinda Arden not only sheds light on these more subtle processes that are going on in many men’s and women’s lives but also demonstrates how a couple can work together in order to develop an improved work-family integration. This requires a level of coordination and negotiation within the couple to ensure that mothers and fathers can succeed in both their careers and be satisfied as parents. Sheryl Sandberg spoke frequently of this coordination with her late husband and the need to work as a household, truly sharing roles in the home.</p>
<p>Men may also face barriers in being active parents and supportive to their female working partners as they necessarily are required to stand out from the norm: social norms around masculinity play a role in creating norms of what fathers “should” do. The evidence of men’s slow change in behaviour can be seen in the low take up of parental leave, even in countries where there are obligatory male allocations for leave. </p>
<p>Women also have a role in encouraging their male partners to adapt their behaviour to the realities of dual-careers couples and not to the behavioural standards of previous generations. Even in households where couples try to share the care, housework and cooking there are social pressures to adopt certain roles that reinforce traditional norms whether they come from family, friends, the workplace or wider society.</p>
<h2>Times are a-changin’ but barriers remain</h2>
<p>Responses to Prime Minister Arden’s parenthood have been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/24/neve-te-aroha-new-zealand-pm-jacinda-ardern-reveals-name-of-baby-daughter">much more positive</a> than that for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/19/benazir-bilawal-bhutto-mother-prime-minster-i-am-her-son">Benazir Bhutto</a> 30 years ago and there is no turning the clock back. Yet working parents need support to undertake their roles via institutions that aid working families and supportive employers. And, just as importantly, individuals themselves need to recognise the impact of their own “choices” on theirs and their spouses’ working lives and that they themselves are agents of change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104180/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>The media interest in the New Zealand leader, who gave birth this summer, is an illustration of the difficulties faced by women who choose to pursue a career without sacrificing their lives as mothers.Mark Smith, Dean of Faculty & Professor of Human Resource Management, Grenoble École de Management (GEM)Marilyn Clarke, Senior Lecturer in HRM, University of AdelaideTracy Scurry, Senior Lecturer in Human Resource Management, Newcastle UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.