tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/bushfire-planning-25243/articlesBushfire planning – The Conversation2020-09-15T19:51:54Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1461942020-09-15T19:51:54Z2020-09-15T19:51:54ZAndrew Forrest’s high-tech plan to extinguish bushfires within an hour is as challenging as it sounds<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358075/original/file-20200915-18-1xr17au.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=264%2C187%2C7084%2C4715&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Warren Frey/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The philanthropic foundation of mining billionaire Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest has unveiled a <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/9xvk4tbg0meqykf/20200915_MR_Fire_Shield_final.pdf?dl=0">plan</a> to transform how Australia responds to bushfires. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/15/philanthropic-foundation-dreams-of-extinguishing-all-bushfires-within-an-hour-with-high-tech-help">Fire Shield</a> project aims to use emerging technologies to rapidly find and extinguish bushfires. The goal is to be able to put out any dangerous blaze within an hour by 2025.</p>
<p>Some of the proposed technology includes <a href="https://theconversation.com/drones-help-track-wildfires-count-wildlife-and-map-plants-125115">drones</a> and aerial surveillance robots, autonomous fire-fighting vehicles and on-the-ground remote sensors. If successful, the plan could alleviate the devastating impact of bushfires Australians face each year. </p>
<p>But while <a href="https://www.environment.sa.gov.au/managing-natural-resources/fire-management/fire-science/fire-behaviour">bushfire behaviour</a> is an extensively studied science, it’s not an exact one. Fires are subject to a wide range of variables including local weather conditions, atmospheric pressure and composition, and the geographical layout of an area. </p>
<p>There are also human factors, such as how quickly and effectively front-line workers can respond, as well as the issue of arson. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/humans-light-85-of-bushfires-and-we-do-virtually-nothing-to-stop-it-126941">Humans light 85% of bushfires, and we do virtually nothing to stop it</a>
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<h2>A plan for rapid bushfire detection</h2>
<p>The appeal of the Fire Shield plan is in its proposal to use emerging fields of computer science to fight bushfires, especially AI and the <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/internet-of-things-what-is-explained-iot">Internet of Things</a> (IoT) network. </p>
<p>While we don’t currently have details on how the Fire Shield plan will be carried out, the use of an IoT <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7080/5/4/65">bushfire monitoring</a> network seems like the most viable option. </p>
<p>The IoT network is made of many wireless connected devices. Deploying IoT devices with sensors in remote areas could allow the monitoring of changes in soil temperature, air temperature, weather conditions, moisture and humidity, wind speed, wind direction and forest density.</p>
<p>The sensors could also help pinpoint a fire’s location, <a href="https://ecos.csiro.au/fast-moving-fires-and-the-science-of-prediction/">predict</a> where it will spread and also where it most likely started. This insight would greatly help with the early evacuation of vulnerable communities.</p>
<p>Data collected could be quickly processed and analysed using <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/11/17/103781/what-is-machine-learning-we-drew-you-another-flowchart/">machine learning</a>. This branch of AI provides intelligent analysis much quicker than traditional computing, or human reckoning. </p>
<h2>A more reliable network</h2>
<p>A wireless low power wide area network (LPWAN) would be the best option for implementing the required infrastructure for the proposal. LPWAN uses sensor devices with batteries lasting up to <a href="https://tools.ietf.org/id/draft-ietf-lpwan-overview-08.html#:%7E:text=2.-,Characteristics,years%2C%20sometimes%20even%20buried%20underground.">15 years</a>. </p>
<p>And although a LPWAN only allows limited <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405959517302953">coverage</a> (10-40km) in rural areas, a network with more coverage would need batteries that have to be replaced more often — making the entire system less reliable.</p>
<p>In the event of sensors being destroyed by fire, neighbouring sensors can send this information back to the server to build a sensor “availability and location map”. With this map, tracking destroyed sensors would also help track a bushfire’s movement. </p>
<h2>Dealing with logistics</h2>
<p>While it’s possible, the practicalities of deploying sensors for a remote bushfire monitoring network make the plan hugely challenging. The areas to cover would be vast, with varying terrain and environmental conditions. </p>
<p>Sensor devices could potentially be deployed by aircrafts across a region. On-ground distribution by people would be another option, but a more expensive one.</p>
<p>However, the latter option would have to be used to distribute larger <a href="https://medium.com/iotforall/iot-101-what-is-a-gateway-be066763b98d">gateway</a> devices. These act as the bridge between the other sensors on ground and the server in the <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/what-is-cloud-computing-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-cloud/">cloud</a> hosting the data. </p>
<p>Gateway devices have more hardware and need to be set up by a person when first installed. They play a key role in LPWAN networks and must be placed carefully. After being placed, IoT devices require regular monitoring and calibration to ensure the information being relayed to the server is accurate.</p>
<p>Weather and environmental factors (such as storms or floods) have the potential to destroy the sensors. There’s also the risk of human interference, as well as legal considerations around deploying sensors on privately owned land. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-only-one-way-to-make-bushfires-less-powerful-take-out-the-stuff-that-burns-129323">There's only one way to make bushfires less powerful: take out the stuff that burns</a>
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<h2>Unpredictable interruptions</h2>
<p>While statisticians can provide insight into the likelihood of a bushfire starting at a particular location, bushfires remain inherently hard to predict. </p>
<p>Any sensor network will be counter-acted by unpredictable environmental conditions and technological issues such as interrupted network signals. And such disruptions could lead to delays in important information reaching authorities.</p>
<p>Potential solutions for this include using <a href="https://www.nbnco.com.au/learn/network-technology/sky-muster-explained">satellite services</a> in conjunction with an LPWAN network, or balloon networks (such as Google’s project <a href="https://www.radarbox.com/blog/tracking-google-loon-baloons-on-radarbox">Loon</a>) which can provide better internet connectivity in remote areas.</p>
<p>But even once the sensors can be used to identify and track bushfires, putting a blaze out is another challenge entirely. The Fire Shield plan’s <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/minderoo-s-high-tech-plan-to-extinguish-any-bushfire-within-one-hour-20200914-p55vjq">vision</a> “to detect, monitor and extinguish dangerous blazes within an hour anywhere in Australia” will face challenges on several fronts.</p>
<p>It may be relatively simple to predict hurdles in getting the technology set up. But once a bushfire is detected, it’s less clear as to what course of action could possible extinguish it within the hour. In some very remote areas, aerial firefighting (such as with water bombers) may be the only option. </p>
<p>That begs the next question: how can we have enough aircrafts and controllers ready to be dispatched to a remote place at a moment’s notice? Considering the logistics, it won’t be easy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146194/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Jin Kang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Even if the proper infrastructure is implemented, it’s hard to say what course of action could possibly extinguish a fast-moving rural bushfire within an hour.James Jin Kang, Lecturer, Computing and Security, Edith Cowan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1312912020-03-05T19:07:37Z2020-03-05T19:07:37ZHow ‘Earthships’ could make rebuilding safer in bushfire zones<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318773/original/file-20200305-127951-vhyr52.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1309%2C9%2C1470%2C850&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.earthshipironbank.com.au/">Earthship Ironbark</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Recent disastrous <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/bushfires-1377">bushfires</a> have rebooted debate about how to (re)build in the Australian bush. Questions are being asked about <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-building-codes-dont-expect-houses-to-be-fire-proof-and-thats-by-design-129540">building standards</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/building-standards-give-us-false-hope-theres-no-such-thing-as-a-fireproof-house-130165">whether a fire-proof home is possible</a>, the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/government-approved-bushfire-bunkers-could-help-protect-homes-lives-20200101-p53o0m.html">value of fire bunkers</a> when it’s too late to leave, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/before-we-rush-to-rebuild-after-fires-we-need-to-think-about-where-and-how-130049">if we should even live in the bush</a> any more.</p>
<p>I suggest homes and community buildings in bushfire-prone areas can be made much more fire-resistant, perhaps even fire-proof, by adopting earth-covered, off-grid structures – known as <a href="https://www.earthshipecohomes.com.au/about.html">Earthships</a> – as the new standard.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/before-we-rush-to-rebuild-after-fires-we-need-to-think-about-where-and-how-130049">Before we rush to rebuild after fires, we need to think about where and how</a>
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<h2>Built for survival</h2>
<p>Houses sheltered by earth have a higher chance of survival in a bushfire. This is because <a href="https://inhabitat.com/this-earth-sheltered-australian-hobbit-home-stay-cozy-all-year/">earth-based constructions are non-flammable</a> (while topsoil can burn and smoulder, clayey, sandy and gravelly soil does not). </p>
<p>A typical Earthship design has double-glazed windows to the north to let in winter sun, while mounds of earth, pushed up to roof level, protect the south, east and west walls. Taking this a step further, an earth-covered house includes a layer of earth over the roof.</p>
<p>The north-facing double-glazed windows (an essential element of <a href="https://sustainability.williams.edu/green-building-basics/passive-solar-design">passive solar design</a>) is the only part of the building that needs some other protection.</p>
<p><a href="https://hia.com.au/business-information/standards-regulations/building-in-bushfire-prone-areas">Bushfire building codes and standards</a> already demand that windows have extra-thick, toughened glass to resist burning debris and intense heat. Double glazing (two layers of glass separated by a small air gap) offers extra protection. In very high-risk areas, bushfire shutters are a requirement.</p>
<p>Although not demanded by building codes, automated sprinklers could be used to spray water on the windows. But automated systems are problematic during a bushfire when <a href="https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/news/2019/ten-years-black-saturday-what-have-we-discovered">power and water supplies are likely to fail</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-food-no-fuel-no-phones-bushfires-showed-were-only-ever-one-step-from-system-collapse-130600">No food, no fuel, no phones: bushfires showed we're only ever one step from system collapse</a>
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<p>Independent water supplies (big water tanks) and pumps (usually petrol or diesel) are often a condition of approval for new homes in fire-prone areas. However, these are difficult to automate because of choke, throttle, ignition and refuelling issues.</p>
<h2>Examples around Australia</h2>
<p>Enter the Earthship. Invented by American architect <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Reynolds_(architect)">Michael Reynolds</a>, thousands have been built all over the world, often by owner-builders.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Earthships, invented by Michael Reynolds, are now found all over the world.</span></figcaption>
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<p>I built Australia’s first council-approved Earthship – Earthship Ironbank - in the bushfire-prone Adelaide hills. Australian examples can be found in all states, including at <a href="http://www.earthshipironbank.com.au/">Ironbank</a> in South Australia, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-30/kinglake-black-saturday-survivor-builds-earthship/9091972">Kinglake</a> in Victoria, <a href="https://www.earthshipecohomes.com.au/east-augusta-wa.html">East Augusta</a> and <a href="https://www.earthshipecohomes.com.au/jurien-bay-wa.html">Jurien Bay</a> in Western Australia, and <a href="https://www.earthshipecohomes.com.au/suburban-earthship.html">Narara</a> and <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/news/it-geek-building-dream-home-out-of-old-tyres-bottles-and-cans/">Marulan</a> in New South Wales.</p>
<p>Earthships have an electric pump powered by solar panels and a battery for day-to-day water supply – and to fight fires. Sprinklers can then spray water on any vulnerable areas regardless of grid failures and without needing to deal with the flammable fuel that petrol and diesel pumps require. </p>
<p>The standard Earthship design has another feature that could save lives. Underground pipes called earth-tubes or cooling tubes bring fresh air into the building at a nice temperature (better than outside) due to the heat-exchanging effect of the earth around the pipes. When wet fabric is placed over the end of the pipes, these can filter out bushfire smoke. </p>
<p>Earth-covered homes are very air-tight, which combined with the earth-tubes helps keep out smoke and reduce <a href="https://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/katherine-haynes.pdf">asphyxiation risks</a>. </p>
<p>Another defence mechanism is the “greenhouse”, a sunroom and corridor space on the sunny north side used for passive heating and cooling, treating wastewater and growing food. Yet another layer of double glazing isolates the greenhouse from the living spaces behind it. Adding indoor sprinklers (commonplace in commercial buildings) to the greenhouse could create a “wet buffer zone” and stop embers blowing into living areas where flammable furnishings are a hazard.</p>
<p>An iconic Earthship feature is the tyres used to form the exterior earth walls. While empty tyres are highly flammable, in this design they are not. The tyres are filled with compacted earth and protected by a layer of earth many metres thick (inside walls are rendered). There is already <a href="https://pangeabuilders.com/earthship-buildings-are-fire-resistant-not-a-total-loss/">evidence of their fire-resistant nature</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-building-codes-dont-expect-houses-to-be-fire-proof-and-thats-by-design-129540">Australian building codes don't expect houses to be fire-proof – and that's by design</a>
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<h2>Safer for the planet too</h2>
<p>My PhD research focused on the energy efficiency and environmental footprint of the Earthship, comparing it to other construction systems and designs. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A look at the author’s Earthship Ironbark.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Earth is a low-cost, readily available material. It takes very little energy to dig it up, needs no processing and minimal (if any) transport. It is difficult to think of a more sustainable, inexpensive and non-flammable material.</p>
<p>I found off-grid homes minimise their eco-footprint by kicking three very dirty habits: the power, water and sewage grids. “Earthy” construction methods, such as Earthship, rammed earth, mudbrick and strawbale, also have much lower environmental impacts.</p>
<p>Earth-covered buildings are <a href="https://www.intechopen.com/books/energy-conservation/earth-shelters-a-review-of-energy-conservation-properties-in-earth-sheltered-housing">renowned for their energy efficiency</a>. Earth insulates and has “thermal mass”, an architectural term for dense materials (e.g. concrete, brick, rammed earth, water). Thermal mass evens out temperature changes by absorbing heat when it is too hot inside and releasing heat when it is too cold inside. This means minimal heating and cooling bills.</p>
<p>There are a few “tricks” to getting council approval. Hire an experienced structural engineer and use a private certifier or surveyor for building rules consent as they are better equipped to certify compliance with the <a href="https://ncc.abcb.gov.au/ncc-online/About">National Construction Code</a>. The one aspect of the Earthship I couldn’t get approved was an <a href="http://www.earthshipironbank.com.au/">indoor greywater garden and toilet-flushing system</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sustainable-cities-australias-building-and-planning-rules-stand-in-the-way-of-getting-there-84263">Sustainable cities? Australia's building and planning rules stand in the way of getting there</a>
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<p>Parts of the roof are earth-covered with fire-fighting sprinklers on the roof and windows. If I was building again I’d prioritise bushfire resilience by making it fully earth-covered with fire shutters, sprinklers and a safe room.</p>
<p>Further study is needed to scientifically validate my proposal here. However, we already have some evidence that Earthships, with a few minor design changes, might be the most sustainable, liveable, economical, fire-resistant buildings ever conceived of.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131291/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Martin Freney operates Earthship Eco Homes, a design consultancy dedicated to Earthship inspired homes and Earthship Ironbank, Australia’s first council approved Earthship available for anyone to experience on Airbnb or Sustainable House Day. His PhD thesis is titled “Earthship Architecture: Post Occupancy Evaluation, Thermal Performance and Life Cycle Assessment”. Martin has received funding from Tyre Stewardship Australia (federally funded) to fund a PhD candidate at the University of South Australia to conduct a study titled “physical properties of tyre walls in residential housing construction”.</span></em></p>Earth-covered houses are not only highly fire-resistant, but sustainable features such as off-grid power and water supplies could also be life-saving in a bushfire.Martin Freney, Lecturer in Industrial and Sustainable Design, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1294462020-01-09T04:54:52Z2020-01-09T04:54:52ZAs fires rage, we must use social media for long-term change, not just short-term fundraising<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308955/original/file-20200108-107204-1rv6ofj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=452%2C18%2C766%2C570&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Comedian Celeste Barber's fundraising efforts have gained monumental support. But we need to think of long-term engagement in climate action too.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.facebook.com/donate/1010958179269977/">Facebook</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With 26 fatalities, half a billion animals impacted and 10.7 million hectares of land burnt, Australia faces a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/jan/08/nsw-fires-live-updates-victoria-bushfires-south-australia-fire-sa-australian-bushfire-near-me-rfs-cfa-latest-news-wednesday">record-breaking bushfire season</a>. </p>
<p>Yet, amid the despondency, moving stories have emerged of phenomenal fundraising conducted through social media. </p>
<p>At the forefront is Australian comedian Celeste Barber, whose <a href="https://www.facebook.com/donate/1010958179269977/">Facebook fundraiser</a> has raised more than AUD$45 million - the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/celeste-barber-facebook-bushfires-fundraiser-2020-1">largest amount in the platform’s history</a>. </p>
<p>Presenting shocking visuals, sites such as Instagram, Twitter and Facebook have been monumental in communicating the severity of the fires. </p>
<p>But at a time when experts predict worsening climate conditions and longer fire seasons, short bursts of compassion and donations aren’t enough. </p>
<p>For truly effective action against current and future fires, we need to use social media to implement lasting transformations, to our attitudes, and our ability to address climate change.</p>
<h2>Get out of your echo-chamber</h2>
<p>Links between social media and public engagement are complex. Their combination can be helpful, as we’re witnessing, but doesn’t necessarily help solve problems requiring long-term attention.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-bringing-a-new-world-of-bushfires-123261">Climate change is bringing a new world of bushfires</a>
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<p>Online spaces can cultivate <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/05/why-social-media-ruining-political-discourse/589108/">polarising, and sometimes harmful, debate</a>.</p>
<p>Past research indicates <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0206841">the presence of online echo chambers</a>, and users’ tendency to <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-just-blame-echo-chambers-conspiracy-theorists-actively-seek-out-their-online-communities-127119">seek interaction</a> with others holding the same beliefs as them.</p>
<p>If you’re stuck in an echo chamber, Harvard Law School lecturer Erica Ariel Fox <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ericaarielfox/2017/10/26/how-to-escape-the-echo-chamber/#53f1f6f14d10">suggests</a> breaking the mould by going out of your way to understand diverse opinions. </p>
<p>Before gearing up to disagree with others, she recommends acknowledging the contradictions and biases you yourself hold, and embracing the opposing sides of yourself.</p>
<p>In tough times, many start to assign blame – often with political or personal agendas.</p>
<p>In the crisis engulfing Australia, we’ve seen this with repeated accusations from conservatives claiming the Greens party <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/is-more-prescribed-burning-the-answer-to-bushfire-threat/11844766">have made fire hazard reduction more difficult</a>.</p>
<p>In such conversations, larger injustices and the underlying political challenges are often forgotten. The structural conditions underpinning the crisis remain unchallenged. </p>
<h2>Slow and steady</h2>
<p>We need <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/slow-burn/">to rethink our approach</a> to dealing with climate change, and <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/global-warming-effects/">its harmful effects</a>.</p>
<p>First, we should acknowledge there is no quick way to resolve the issue, despite the immediacy of the threats it poses. </p>
<p>Political change is slow, and needs steady growth. This is particularly true for climate politics, an issue which <a href="https://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199566600.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199566600-e-1">challenges the social and economic structures we rely on</a>.</p>
<p>Our values and aspirations must also change, and be reflected in our online conversations. Our dialogue should shift from blame to a culture of appreciation, and growing concern for the impact of climate degradation. </p>
<p>Users should continue to explore and learn online, but need to do so in an informed way. </p>
<p>Reading Facebook and Twitter content is fine, but this must be complemented with <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2016/12/05/503581220/fake-or-real-how-to-self-check-the-news-and-get-the-facts">reliable news sources</a>. Follow authorised user accounts providing fact-based articles and guidance. </p>
<p>Before you join an online debate, it’s important you can back your claims. This helps prevent the spread of misinformation online, which is unfortunately rampant.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2018-02/Measuring%20the%20reach%20of%20fake%20news%20and%20online%20distribution%20in%20Europe%20CORRECT%20FLAG.pdf">2018 Reuters Institute report</a> found people’s interaction (sharing, commenting and reacting) with false news from a small number of Facebook outlets “generated more or as many interactions as established news brands”.</p>
<p>Also, avoid regressive discussions with dead-ends. <a href="https://sproutsocial.com/insights/social-media-algorithms/">Social media algorithms</a> dictate that the posts you engage with set the tone for future posts targeted at you, and more engagement with posts will make them more visible to other users too. Spend your time and effort wisely. </p>
<p>And lastly, the internet has made it easier than ever to contact political leaders, whether it’s <a href="https://twitter.com/ScottMorrisonMP">tweeting at your prime minister</a>, or reaching out to <a href="https://www.facebook.com/SussanLeyMP/">the relevant minister</a> on Facebook.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/listen-to-your-people-scott-morrison-the-bushfires-demand-a-climate-policy-reboot-129348">Listen to your people Scott Morrison: the bushfires demand a climate policy reboot</a>
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<h2>Tangible change-making</h2>
<p>History has proven meaningful social and political progress requires sustained public awareness and engagement.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309178/original/file-20200109-138677-1e9h83o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309178/original/file-20200109-138677-1e9h83o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309178/original/file-20200109-138677-1e9h83o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309178/original/file-20200109-138677-1e9h83o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309178/original/file-20200109-138677-1e9h83o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309178/original/file-20200109-138677-1e9h83o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1634&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309178/original/file-20200109-138677-1e9h83o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1634&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309178/original/file-20200109-138677-1e9h83o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1634&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australian comedian Celeste Barber started fundraising with a goal of $30,000.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.facebook.com/donate/1010958179269977/1015653102133818/">Celeste Barber/Facebook</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Consider Australia’s recent legislation on <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-year-that-marriage-equality-finally-came-to-australia">marriage equality</a>, or the historical transformation of <a href="https://history.house.gov/Exhibitions-and-Publications/WIC/Historical-Essays/No-Lady/Womens-Rights/">women’s rights</a>. </p>
<p>These issues affect people constantly, but fixing them required debate over long periods.</p>
<p>We should draw on the awareness raised over the past weeks, and not let dialogue about the heightened threat of bushfires fizzle out. </p>
<p>We must not return to our practices of <a href="http://sourcesofinsight.com/13-negative-motivation-patterns/">do-nothingism</a> as soon as the immediate disaster subsides. </p>
<p>Although bushfire fundraisers have collected millions, a <a href="http://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/docs/findings/ESS8_toplines_issue_9_climatechange.pdf">European Social Survey</a> of 44,387 respondents from 23 countries found that – while most participants were worried about climate change – less than one-third were willing to pay higher taxes on fossil fuels.</p>
<p>If we want climate action, we must expect more from our governments but also from ourselves.</p>
<p>Social media should be used to <em>consistently</em> pressure government to take principled stances on key issues, not short-sighted policies geared towards the next election.</p>
<h2>Opening the public’s eyes</h2>
<p>There’s no denying social media has successfully <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/gallery/2020/jan/01/new-years-disaster-full-horror-of-australias-bushfires-begins-to-emerge-in-pictures">driven home the extent of devastation</a> caused by the fires.</p>
<p>A clip from Fire and Rescue NSW, viewed 7.8 million times on Twitter alone, gives audiences a view of what it’s like fighting on the frontlines.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1211943881790509056"}"></div></p>
<p>Images <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/gallery/2020/jan/08/scorched-earth-the-bushfire-devastation-on-kangaroo-island-in-pictures">of burnt, suffering animals</a> and destroyed homes, resorts, farms and forests have signalled the horror of what has passed and what may come.</p>
<p>Social media can be a formidable source of inspiration and action. It’s expected to become even more pervasive in our lives, and this is why <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2019/12/3/20980741/fake-news-facebook-twitter-misinformation-lies-fact-check-how-to-internet-guide">it must be used carefully</a>. </p>
<p>While showings of solidarity are incredibly helpful, what happens in the coming weeks and months, after the fires pass, is what will matter most.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129446/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emma Hutchison receives funding from the Australian Research Council and from a University of Queensland Foundation Research Excellence Award. These grants are enabling research into the roles emotions play in shaping local and global politics. </span></em></p>Celeste Barber’s $45 million fundraiser is amazing, but battling Australia’s fires should be an ongoing effort. With the help of social media, it can be.Emma Hutchison, Associate Professor and ARC DECRA Fellow, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1293502020-01-07T00:03:59Z2020-01-07T00:03:59ZThere’s no evidence ‘greenies’ block bushfire hazard reduction but here’s a controlled burn idea worth trying<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308569/original/file-20200106-11914-13cjiaz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=81%2C47%2C712%2C563&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Locally managed hazard reduction could give communities greater ownership over prevention and leverage local knowledge.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Bowman</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The current bushfire crisis provides compelling evidence of the dangers posed by extremely dry landscapes and hot, windy conditions.</p>
<p>While there’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/05/explainer-how-effective-is-bushfire-hazard-reduction-on-australias-fires">no</a> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/12/is-there-really-a-green-conspiracy-to-stop-bushfire-hazard-reduction">evidence</a> “greenies” precipitated the current crisis by blocking hazard reduction, it is clear that we need to explore new ways to manage fuel loads to reduce the severity of bushfires.</p>
<p>It is worth considering how local, self organised, place-based, community groups could be supported to conduct various types of strategic hazard reduction, including targeted grazing and <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-back-burning-and-fuel-reduction-20605">prescribed or fuel reduction burning</a>. </p>
<h2>Using the Landcare model for bushfire hazard reduction</h2>
<p>One model we could look to is Landcare, which has enjoyed 30 years of bipartisan support. Funded and supported by governments, local, semi-autonomous, self-directed groups aim to take a sustainable approach to land management through on-ground projects such as habitat restoration and improving biodiversity.</p>
<p>This model could be applied to <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-back-burning-and-fuel-reduction-20605">prescribed or fuel reduction burning</a>, carried out by local “GreenFire” groups. This would involve:</p>
<p><strong>1. Developing and resourcing GreenFire groups.</strong></p>
<p>These would be the equivalent of district Landcare groups, but focused on hazard reduction and fuel management. These groups could be encouraged to learn <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-land-is-burning-and-western-science-does-not-have-all-the-answers-100331">patch-burning techniques</a>, and other landscape scale management practices, such as creating <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/1/1/3">green firebreaks</a> of non-flammable species. </p>
<p>If well coordinated, these techniques would reduce fire hazards across private and public lands. These groups could be an extension of existing Landcare groups combined with volunteer firefighting services. They would aim to increase capacity for fuel management at the landscape scale and provide opportunities for more people to learn skills and share knowledge, with and from professionals working in government forest and national parks agencies. </p>
<p>These kinds of activities, mostly in the cooler, green seasons would enhance the capacity of communities to prepare for future fires, and increase the capacity of traditional fire fighting to suppress dangerous fires.</p>
<p><strong>2. These groups could work under the mentorship and authorisation of fuel management/reduction officers.</strong> </p>
<p>These could be public officers such as district fire officers or senior staff of public land management agencies who have had a long involvement in <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/media/4893/overview-of-prescribed-burning-in-australasia.pdf">prescribed burning</a> and fuel management on public lands.</p>
<p><strong>3. In each district, fuel reduction periods could be officially declared.</strong>
With this declaration state governments would assume liability for fuel reduction fires, so long as they had the appropriate planning, approvals and resourcing (for example, they were undertaken by trained groups and certified by appropriate officials).</p>
<p><strong>4. Fuel reduction burning should employ Indigenous fire rangers, drawing on Indigenous knowledge and celebrating <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-land-is-burning-and-western-science-does-not-have-all-the-answers-100331">Indigenous patchwork burning</a> practices.</strong></p>
<p>Involving Indigenous communities in such a program would <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-19/cultural-burning-being-revived-by-aboriginal-people/8630038">combine traditional and modern burning practices</a>. Blending cultural and modern burning techniques has proven successful in <a href="https://theconversation.com/savanna-burning-carbon-pays-for-conservation-in-northern-australia-12185">major savanna burning programs</a> reducing carbon emissions from late season fires in Northern Australia.</p>
<h2>Prevention is better than firefighting</h2>
<p>Land use planning and management play key roles in shaping exposure to bushfire risks, and are therefore central to disaster mitigation.</p>
<p>Under conditions that favour wildfires, no amount of firefighting effort can protect all lives and property. <a href="http://royalcommission.vic.gov.au/Commission-Reports/Final-Report.html">Victoria’s Black Saturday Royal Commission</a> - a comprehensive inquiry into the fires in which 173 people died, more than 5000 were injured and more than 2,000 houses destroyed - found that under extreme conditions, wildfires overwhelm the capacity of emergency services.</p>
<p>South-eastern Australia has long experience of intense fires, yet our population has spread into the bushlands of coastal hinterlands and urban fringes. This has occurred despite scientists <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/17/what-could-i-have-done-the-scientist-who-predicted-the-bushfire-emergency-four-decades-ago">warning</a> for more than 30 years that wildfire risks were intensifying due to climate change.</p>
<p>There are no silver bullet fixes to reduce bushfires hazards. But pragmatic approaches based on extensive research have <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-april-2019-ten-years-after-the-black-saturday-fires-what-have-we-learnt-from-post-fire-research">improved disaster responses</a>, supported calls for <a href="http://royalcommission.vic.gov.au/Commission-Reports/Final-Report/Volume-2/Chapters/Planning-and-Building.html">stricter planning and building codes</a> and quantified the benefits of strategically <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-back-burning-and-fuel-reduction-20605">reducing fuel loads</a>. </p>
<h2>We must try creative new ways to reduce risk</h2>
<p>Since the <a href="http://www.voltscommissar.net/docs/Leonard_Stretton-1939_Bush_Fires_Royal_Commission_Report.pdf">Stretton Royal Commission</a> into the 1939 Black Friday bushfires, more than <a href="http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/urban_and_regional_planning.pdf">16 major inquiries</a> have called for greater use of integrated approaches to land use planning and management to minimise disaster risks.</p>
<p>With climate change increasing bushfire impacts and intensities, we need to build capacity in local communities to manage fire hazard. This requires education, training and adapting policies and landscape management practices to devise plans that suit local conditions.</p>
<p>Countless generations of Indigenous people have effectively managed fire risk through skillful burning. It is time to learn how to burn well and to share the techniques and methods that can enable us live well in our flammable landscape.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129350/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Alexandra was previously CEO of the Earthwatch Institute.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Bowman receives funding to study fire ecology and management from the Australian Research Council (ARC) , the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Bushfire and Natural Hazard CRC, and the Tasmanian Government Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and the Environment.</span></em></p>Local, self organised, community groups can be supported to do strategic hazard reduction through a range of techniques – including targeted grazing, and prescribed or fuel reduction burning.Jason Alexandra, PhD candidate, RMIT UniversityDavid Bowman, Professor of Pyrogeography and Fire Science, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1293232020-01-06T04:57:28Z2020-01-06T04:57:28ZThere’s only one way to make bushfires less powerful: take out the stuff that burns<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308576/original/file-20200106-11900-1ipk9hy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C2%2C1991%2C1305&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hazard reduction burns reduce bushfire fuel loads, but the current approach is not working.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As monstrous blazes overwhelm Australia’s south-east, the need for a national bushfire policy has never been more urgent. Active land management such as hazard-reduction burning and forest thinning must lie at the core of any such policy. </p>
<p>Done well, controlled burning limits a bushfire’s spread and makes suppression easier, by reducing the amount of flammable material. Clearing or thinning vegetation on roadsides and other areas also helps maintain fuel breaks, allowing firefighters access to forests in an emergency. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-bushfire-and-holiday-seasons-converge-it-may-be-time-to-say-goodbye-to-the-typical-australian-summer-holiday-129337">As bushfire and holiday seasons converge, it may be time to say goodbye to the typical Australian summer holiday</a>
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<p>As former fire chiefs <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/full-list-of-fire-and-emergency-chiefs-recommendations-to-federal-government/">recently pointed out</a>, of all factors driving a fire’s severity – temperature, wind speed, topography, fuel moisture and fuel load – fuel load is the only one humans can influence. </p>
<p>The royal commission into Victoria’s Black Saturday bushfires identified serious shortcomings in land and fuel management, primarily the domain of the states. Ten years ago I also called for a national approach to bushfires, including vegetation management. </p>
<p>Relatively little has changed since. It is as though Australia suffers collective and institutional amnesia when it comes to bushfire preparedness. But the threat will only escalate. Australia must have a sustained commitment to better land management.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308573/original/file-20200106-11896-20vzy2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308573/original/file-20200106-11896-20vzy2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308573/original/file-20200106-11896-20vzy2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308573/original/file-20200106-11896-20vzy2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308573/original/file-20200106-11896-20vzy2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308573/original/file-20200106-11896-20vzy2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308573/original/file-20200106-11896-20vzy2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prime Minister Scott Morrison, meeting South Australian firefighters, says bushfire management is a state responsibility.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Kelly Barnes</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The three pillars of dealing with bushfires</h2>
<p>Bushfire management comprises three planks: preparation, response and recovery. </p>
<p>Preparation involves managing fuel loads and vegetation, maintaining access to tracks and fire breaks, planning fire response and ensuring sufficient human capacity and resources to respond to worst-case scenarios.</p>
<p>Response involves deploying aircraft, fire trucks and firefighting personnel, and recovery requires social, financial and institutional support.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/disaster-recovery-from-australias-fires-will-be-a-marathon-not-a-sprint-129325">Disaster recovery from Australia's fires will be a marathon, not a sprint</a>
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<p>The federal government mostly focuses on bushfire response and recovery, which now falls under the Department of Home Affairs and the responsible Minister for Natural Disaster and Emergency Management, David Littleproud.</p>
<p>After major fire events in the 2000s, the Commonwealth committed significant resources to response. This included contributing to the cost of more fire-fighting planes and helicopters, and <a href="https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/">research funding</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308572/original/file-20200106-11900-gh3b61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308572/original/file-20200106-11900-gh3b61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308572/original/file-20200106-11900-gh3b61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308572/original/file-20200106-11900-gh3b61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308572/original/file-20200106-11900-gh3b61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308572/original/file-20200106-11900-gh3b61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308572/original/file-20200106-11900-gh3b61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A helicopter tackling a bushfire in Victoria’s East Gippsland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Victorian government</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>But what about fire preparation?</h2>
<p>Prescribed burning is considered a key element of bushfire preparation. While there is some debate over its <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-surprising-answer-to-a-hot-question-controlled-burns-often-fail-to-slow-a-bushfire-127022">effect on a fire’s impact</a>, the Victorian bushfire royal commission concluded fuel modification at a sufficient scale can reduce the impact of even high-intensity fires.</p>
<p>Other management actions include thinning dense forest areas, reducing the shrub layer mechanically where burning is not possible and maintaining fire breaks. As the climate changes, we may consider changing the tree species mix. </p>
<p>The newly merged Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment is the federal agency with most interest in land management. However other agencies such as the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources share some responsibilities. </p>
<p>Federal funding for land management deals with single issues such as weeds, feral animals, threatened species or water quality. Funding is often piecemeal, doled out to government bodies or community groups with little coordination. As federal programs are implemented, states often withdraw funding.</p>
<p>Former NSW Fire and Rescue commissioner Greg Mullins and other experts <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/full-list-of-fire-and-emergency-chiefs-recommendations-to-federal-government//">have warned</a> fuel reduction burning is “constrained by a shortage of resources in some states and territories”, as well as by warmer, drier weather which reduces the number of days burning can be undertaken.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308579/original/file-20200106-11896-w5d44r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308579/original/file-20200106-11896-w5d44r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308579/original/file-20200106-11896-w5d44r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308579/original/file-20200106-11896-w5d44r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308579/original/file-20200106-11896-w5d44r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308579/original/file-20200106-11896-w5d44r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308579/original/file-20200106-11896-w5d44r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A hazard reduction operation by the NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service in the Blue Mountains. Fire experts say such services are underfunded.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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<p>At state level, since the major fires of the 2000s, funding for fire management has increased and coordination between fire response and land management agencies has improved.</p>
<p>However, the focus of the two groups remains divided, which can thwart progress. Fire services prioritise protecting lives and property once fires are going, while forest and land management agencies focus on reducing fire risk, and must consider a wider range of natural and community values.</p>
<p>In a rapidly changing climate, land management requires a long-term adaptive strategy, underpinned by sound analysis and research, supporting laws and policies, with sufficient funding and human resources. Bipartisan political support and leadership continuity is needed to sustain it. </p>
<h2>A national approach</h2>
<p>State agencies cannot carry the full financial burden for fire preparedness. With fire events happening in almost all states and territories, it is clear we need a national approach.</p>
<p>The federal government collects most tax revenue and should contribute a greater share of the costs of prescribed burning, maintaining access, fire detection, and rapid firefighting response.</p>
<p>Federal spending on land management can be better integrated to engage and protect communities, conserve biodiversity, maintain water quality, manage forest carbon emissions and improve forest resilience to future fires. Recent federal investments in <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/Choosing-a-project-type/Opportunities-for-the-land-sector/Savanna-burning-methods">savannah burning in northern Australia</a> are a good example of this.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308575/original/file-20200106-11900-52fbe0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308575/original/file-20200106-11900-52fbe0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308575/original/file-20200106-11900-52fbe0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308575/original/file-20200106-11900-52fbe0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308575/original/file-20200106-11900-52fbe0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308575/original/file-20200106-11900-52fbe0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308575/original/file-20200106-11900-52fbe0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Gospers Mountain Fire at Bilpin, NSW.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">DAN HIMBRECHTS/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A federal bureau of bushfire and land management could support national policy and coordinate investment, including monitoring and reporting on forest and land condition. State agencies, local authorities and private landowners could continue to provide management to meet national targets.</p>
<p>Commitment to public education is also critical. Many people do not understand the need for appropriate human interventions, such as prescribed burning or thinning, to protect the forests we all enjoy. We must also learn from traditional owners about how to live in our country and manage land with fire. </p>
<p>In December, the federal government initiated an inquiry into the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/House_of_Representatives/About_the_House_News/Media_Releases/Committee_to_examine_efficacy_of_vegetation_and_land_management_policy_on_bushfires">efficacy of vegetation and land management and bushfires</a>. This inquiry needs to be expanded, avoiding the simplified debates of the past, and bring together all parties to identify solutions.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/making-sense-of-australias-bushfire-crisis-means-asking-hard-questions-and-listening-to-the-answers-129302">Making sense of Australia's bushfire crisis means asking hard questions – and listening to the answers</a>
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<p>As one of the most urbanised countries on Earth, there are few votes to be gained in more spending on rural land management. Hazard reduction is a sometimes risky, labour-intensive measure, and tensions between reducing fuel loads and conserving the environment must be managed.</p>
<p>However after the grief, anger and recriminations from these fires have passed, it’s time for an urgent national rethink – and the Morrison government must lead the way.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129323/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rod Keenan receives research funding from the Australian and Victorian Governments and the forest industry. He is a Member of the Institute of Foresters of Australia and the Ecological Society of Australia. </span></em></p>Relatively little has changed since the Black Saturday tragedy. It is as though Australia suffers amnesia when it comes to bushfire preparedness.Rod Keenan, Professor, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1270192019-11-20T04:09:23Z2019-11-20T04:09:23ZIt’s hard to breathe and you can’t think clearly – if you defend your home against a bushfire, be mentally prepared<p>If you live in a bushfire-prone area, you’ll likely have considered what you will do in the event of a bushfire. </p>
<p>The decision, which should be made well in advance of bushfire season, is whether to stay and actively defend a well-prepared property or to leave the area while it’s safe to do so.</p>
<p>The emphasis in bushfire safety is on leaving early. This is the safest option.</p>
<p>In “catastrophic” fire conditions, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/11/catastrophic-fire-danger-what-does-it-mean-and-and-what-should-we-do-in-these-conditions">message from NSW Rural Fire Service</a> is that for your survival, leaving early is the <em>only</em> option. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-bushfire-can-destroy-a-home-110795">How a bushfire can destroy a home</a>
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<p>In other fire conditions, staying and defending requires accurately assessing the safety of your house and the surrounding environment, preparing your property in line with current best practice and understanding fire <a href="https://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/documents/3554830/3557908/Defending+your+Property-V5.pdf/1ff83cbb-bd66-a52b-dcc8-6ab9bb8575da?t=1573692604910">conditions</a>.</p>
<p>It also requires a realistic assessment of not just your personal physical capacity to stay and defend but also your psychological capacity. </p>
<h2>Why do people stay and defend?</h2>
<p>Our survey of people who experienced <a href="http://www.bnhcrc.com.au/publications/2017nswbushfires">the 2017 NSW bushfires</a> asked what they would do next summer if there were catastrophic conditions. Some 27% would get ready to stay and defend, and 24% said they would wait to see if there was a fire before deciding whether to stay and defend or leave.</p>
<p>Animal ownership, a lack of insurance, and valuable assets such as agricultural sheds and equipment, are motivators for decisions to stay and defend. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-we-plan-for-animals-in-emergencies-126936">How we plan for animals in emergencies</a>
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<p>If animal owners aren’t home they will often return to their properties when bushfire warnings are issued, contrary to official advice, to retrieve or protect their <a href="http://www.bnhcrc.com.au/publications/2017nswbushfires">animals</a> and physical assets. </p>
<p>Although these decisions are understandable they can also lead people who aren’t physically or psychologically suited to staying and defending to do so.</p>
<h2>What if you’re not psychologically up to it?</h2>
<p>The reality is that a bushfire is a threatening, high-risk situation. It’s hard to see, hard to breathe, noisy and hot.</p>
<p>These conditions can overwhelm our ability to think clearly and act calmly. People in the <a href="https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/news/2016/sampson-flat-fire-research-findings">Sampson Flat Fire in South Australia in 2015</a>, for example, experienced high levels of stress which caused them to:</p>
<ul>
<li>change their plan at the last minute, including leaving late which is the most dangerous response to a fire</li>
<li>drive unsafely, especially speeding</li>
<li>forget to take important items (such as medication)</li>
<li>leave their animals behind</li>
<li>engage in unrelated tasks that took up precious time</li>
<li>ignore the threat (by going to sleep, for example).</li>
</ul>
<p>This is one person’s account of how they responded as the fire approached:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[I] grabbed my son […] saw the smoke and […] went and got the boxes that I’d prepared which I packed when he was a baby. So I had stupid things in the boxes, like baby outfits. But I can’t freak him out […]</p>
<p>[I]n the back of my mind I’m thinking about what do I need to do […] I’ve quarter a tank of diesel, I’d better go get diesel. I also had a back seat full of books that I’d been tidying up [from] his room, so I thought op shop, better do that because I’ll clear the back seat. […]</p>
<p>Came in the house like a mad woman screaming for cats, nowhere in sight. I’ve got four cats and not one of them [is there]. Grabbed a bag and then started putting stupid amounts of clothes in like 20 pair of socks, and then basically I threw the dog in the car. […] So flat panic.</p>
</blockquote>
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<p>
<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfires-can-make-kids-scared-and-anxious-here-are-5-steps-to-help-them-cope-126926">Bushfires can make kids scared and anxious: here are 5 steps to help them cope</a>
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<h2>What’s going on with our thinking?</h2>
<p>The spectrum of actions from frenzy and flight to freezing reflects the model of “<a href="http://www.crowe-associates.co.uk/psychotherapy/window-of-tolerance/">affective tolerance</a>”. When stress exceeds what we can tolerate, we can become hyper-aroused and may have racing thoughts and act impulsively. </p>
<p>Or we may experience hypo-arousal, where we shut down and feel numb and passive.</p>
<p>Our brains consist of three basic parts: the brain stem, limbic system and cortex. These are sometimes described as the primitive, emotional and thinking brains.</p>
<p>In most situations, our thinking brain mediates physical responses to the world around us. </p>
<p>But under high amounts of stress, this connecting loop between the more reactive emotional and physical parts of our brain and our thinking cortex becomes separated. University of California, Los Angeles, professor of psychiatry Dan Siegel <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0T_2NNoC68">describes this</a> as flipping our lid. </p>
<p>Flipping our lid is an automatic response and, from an evolutionary perspective, it’s a highly useful one – we don’t have time to think about whether or not to run when our lives are threatened. </p>
<p>But in a bushfire, these automatic responses are often <a href="https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/sites/default/files/managed/downloads/12._i_think_im_going_to_be_frightened_out_of_my_wits_-_every.pdf">not the best way to respond</a> and can prompt us to make unsafe decisions.</p>
<p>To survive a bushfire, we need to make complex and often highly emotional decisions in rapidly changing conditions.</p>
<h2>How do you control the fear?</h2>
<p>In an <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-apr-2011-deep-survival-experiences-of-some-who-lived-when-they-might-have-died-in-the-7-february-2009-bushfires/">analysis of 33 people who survived extreme conditions in the Black Saturday bushfires</a>, researchers tentatively concluded that the major contributor to their survival was their ability to maintain their mental focus. They could control their fear and keep their attention on the threat and how to respond.</p>
<p>In order to stay and defend safely, it’s vital to have the skills to re-connect the loop between the thinking and the automatic and feeling parts of the <a href="http://www.danielgoleman.info/from-the-basement-to-the-balcony-your-brain-in-an-emergency/">brain</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.psychology.org.au/getmedia/c24bf1ba-a5fc-45d5-a982-835873148b9a/Psychological-preparation-for-natural-disasters.pdf">AIM model</a>, based on stress inoculation theory, suggests preparing before bushfire by anticipating, identifying and developing strategies for coping with stress:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><strong>anticipate</strong>: know how the brain and body responds in an emergency (and that these are normal)</p></li>
<li><p><strong>identify</strong>: be aware that this response is occurring (what is happening in your mind/body that tells you that you are acting from the “basement brain”)</p></li>
<li><p><strong>manage</strong>: have practised strategies for switching mindsets and re-establishing the brain loop.</p></li>
</ul>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420918310690">A large Australian study shows</a> people who are better psychologically prepared for a bushfire:</p>
<ul>
<li>have accessed information on what it means to be mentally prepared</li>
<li>have previous experience of bushfires</li>
<li>are mindful (have the ability to stay present)</li>
<li>use an active coping style such as the AIM model (anticipate, identify, manage)</li>
<li>have low levels of stress and depression.</li>
</ul>
<p>Currently, the most accessible resource on developing mental preparedness is the Australian Red Cross RediPlan <a href="https://www.redcross.org.au/getmedia/b896b60f-5b6c-49b2-a114-57be2073a1c2/red-cross-rediplan-disaster-preparedness-guide.pdf.aspx">guide</a> which includes preparing your mind based on the AIM (anticipate, identify, manage) model.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-land-is-burning-and-western-science-does-not-have-all-the-answers-100331">Our land is burning, and Western science does not have all the answers</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127019/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Danielle Every receives funding from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mel Taylor receives funding from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre. </span></em></p>In catastrophic fire conditions, leaving early is the only safe option. But in other conditions, one thing that’s often overlooked in decisions to stay or go is how mentally tough you need to be.Danielle Every, Senior Research Fellow in social vulnerability and disasters, CQUniversity AustraliaMel Taylor, Senior Lecturer in Organisational Psychology, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1271262019-11-19T19:30:52Z2019-11-19T19:30:52ZPutting homes in high-risk areas is asking too much of firefighters<p>The impacts of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/spring-2019-bushfires-78555">bushfires</a> that are overwhelming emergency services in New South Wales and Queensland suggest houses are being built in areas where the risks are high. We rely heavily on emergency services to protect people and property, but strategic land-use planning can improve resilience and so help reduce the risk in the first place. This would mean giving more weight to considering bushfire hazards at the earliest stages of planning housing supply.</p>
<p>The outstanding dedication of emergency agencies such as the NSW Rural Fire Service and Queensland Fire and Emergency Service is obvious in their efforts to save lives and properties despite the increasing intensity of fires. However, strategic land-use planning could help reduce the risks by being more responsive to such changes in hazards. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-when-the-firies-call-him-out-on-climate-change-scott-morrison-should-listen-127049">Grattan on Friday: When the firies call him out on climate change, Scott Morrison should listen</a>
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<p>Comprehensive management of bushfire risk should include a strategic planning focus on reducing the pressures on emergency services and communities. We may have to rethink land-use planning approaches that <a href="https://www.planning.org.au/documents/item/9341">prove inadequate</a> to deal with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-are-natural-disasters-on-the-rise-39232">increasing intensity and unpredictability of natural hazards</a>.</p>
<p>Strategic planning policies and practices provide the opportunity to be more attentive to changes in bushfire hazards in particular. Planning decisions that fail to do this may leave communities exposed and heavily reliant on emergency services during a disaster.</p>
<h2>Planning to build resilience</h2>
<p>The Australian government has <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/media/1958/manual-7-planning-safer-communities.pdf">identified land-use planning as a key step</a> in managing natural hazards. In 2011, the <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/emergency/files/national-strategy-disaster-resilience.pdf">Council of Australian Governments</a> declared:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Locating new or expanding existing settlements and infrastructure in areas exposed to unreasonable risk is irresponsible.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The increasing intensity of hazards associated with <a href="https://outlook.ndcs.undp.org/">climate change</a> makes strategic planning even more relevant. Land-use planners could help greatly with building <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221242091630070X">resilience</a> by placing natural hazards at the top of their assessment criteria.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/drought-and-climate-change-were-the-kindling-and-now-the-east-coast-is-ablaze-126750">Drought and climate change were the kindling, and now the east coast is ablaze</a>
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<p>Coordinating land-use planning reforms is itself a challenge. Planning in Australia involves many policies, institutions, professions and decision-makers. Policies and processes <a href="https://www.planning.org.au/documents/item/9341">differ</a> depending on the state or territory. </p>
<p>Furthermore, planners must reconcile the demand for residential land from <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/latestProducts/3222.0Media%20Release12017%20(base)%20-%202066">population growth</a> and the need to protect the environment. Deciding where to locate housing is often fraught with complexity, so the process needs expert early input from relevant <a href="https://gar.unisdr.org/sites/default/files/reports/2019-05/full_gar_report.pdf">scientific communities</a> and <a href="https://www.emergency.nsw.gov.au/Pages/for-the-community/community-service-workers/how-emergencies-are-managed-in-NSW/how-emergencies-are-managed-in-nsw.aspx">emergency services</a>. </p>
<h2>Anticipate risk to reduce it</h2>
<p>Land-use planning offers an opportunity in the earliest phase of development to manage the combined pressures of population growth, urban expansion, increasing density and risks of natural hazards.</p>
<p>When rezoning land for residential development, many issues have to be considered. These include environmental sustainability, demand for housing and the location of existing buildings and infrastructure, as well as natural hazards. It’s a <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/media/1958/manual-7-planning-safer-communities.pdf">complex and intricate process</a>, but clearly the strategic planning stage is the first opportunity to minimise exposure to bushfire risk. </p>
<p>Existing policy and processes may defer the detailed review of bushfire risk and other natural hazards to development stages after land has been rezoned. There’s a case for policy to increase the importance attached to bushfire hazards at this early stage. </p>
<p>Ultimately, strategic planners aim to locate settlements away from risk of natural hazards. However, bushfires continue to have disastrous impacts on people and properties. Ongoing demand for housing may add pressure to build in areas exposed to risk.</p>
<p>Settlements are pushing into undeveloped areas that are more likely to be exposed to bushfire risk. The role of strategic land-use planning then becomes even more critical. The devastation we have seen this month shows why this risk must be given the highest priority in land-use planning, particularly when zoning land as residential. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/natural-hazard-risk-is-it-just-going-to-get-worse-or-can-we-do-something-about-it-84286">Natural hazard risk: is it just going to get worse or can we do something about it?</a>
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<h2>Key steps to reform planning</h2>
<p>The increasing intensity of bushfires points to a need to rethink planning processes and mitigation strategies to reduce exposure to such hazards before they arise. This will help ease the burden on emergency services of managing a disaster when it happens. We can’t ignore the opportunities to minimise the risks at the early stages of land-use planning. Key steps include:</p>
<ul>
<li>a policy review to mandate natural hazards, including bushfire risk, as one of the highest priorities in policy, with an objective framework for making land-use decisions</li>
<li>mandatory consultation with relevant science disciplines to model natural hazard risks when land is considered for rezoning</li>
<li>involve emergency services in the strategic planning phase to help minimise future risk.</li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127126/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Maund receives a tuition fee scholarship under the Australian government's Research Training Program (RTP) for his PhD research. He is a consulting environmental scientist and planner in private practice and formerly for the NSW government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kim Maund does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thayaparan Gajendran does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Land-use planning should give more weight to the increasing risks of natural hazards like bushfires as the first step in reducing the impacts.Mark Maund, PhD Candidate, School of Architecture and Built Environment, University of NewcastleKim Maund, Discipline Head - Construction Management, School of Architecture and Built Environment, University of NewcastleThayaparan Gajendran, Associate Professor, School of Architecture and Built Environment, University of NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1268302019-11-14T03:47:51Z2019-11-14T03:47:51ZVirtual tools, real fires: how holograms and other tech could help outsmart bushfires<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301380/original/file-20191112-178525-wfsds6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In many countries including America, computer models are being used to predict how a fire will burn.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia continues to experience <a href="https://theconversation.com/drought-and-climate-change-were-the-kindling-and-now-the-east-coast-is-ablaze-126750">unprecedented destruction from bushfires</a>. Now is the time to harness our technological tools, and find innovative ways to help alleviate the problem, and also prevent future disaster. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs_other/rmrs_2007_andrews_p001.pdf">Predictive mapping</a> has been a vital tool in an ongoing effort to identify at-risk forest areas and proactively manage the risks of fires. It works by analysing images to see what human eyes don’t always see. </p>
<p>Now, progress in technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), drones, and Internet of Things sensors have opened new ways for us to better prevent and effectively respond to bushfires. For this, the key is to have plenty of data relevant to that location.</p>
<h2>Using tech to gather and distribute data</h2>
<p>Crucial data needed for bushfire prevention planning can come from a range of sources, including Internet of Things (IoT) sensors collecting weather data, archived data from the past, modelling tools, satellite images, and even social media.</p>
<p>These technologies can converge to gather a diverse range of data, helping us make predictions about the likelihood of an event occurring in a specific location with more speed and accuracy than ever before. Such predictions provide timely and targeted information that can greatly aid emergency services in doing their job, especially as they often have stretched resources on the ground.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-does-poor-air-quality-from-bushfire-smoke-affect-our-health-126835">How does poor air quality from bushfire smoke affect our health?</a>
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<p>Our goal now should be to integrate our use of these emerging technologies into existing systems of State Emergency Service departments, which can relay more strategically targeted information to local authorities who need it. This can be built into their existing systems.</p>
<h2>The potential of mesh networks</h2>
<p>Next-generation “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tYLU755T6_I">mesh networks</a>” are an emerging technology made possible by the convergence of 5G, artificial intelligence, billions of Internet of Things (IoT) sensors, and virtual and augmented reality. </p>
<p>Whereas older networks are based on a limited number of access points, with mesh networks every person with a 5G-enabled smart phone is a node capable of connecting with everyone else. When 5G mobile phone service is rolled out across Australia, we’ll be able to do this. </p>
<p>With this technology, people in a bushfire or other disaster-afflicted area can create a local mesh network using their smartphone. They could contribute by recording 360 degree videos, make narrative reports about unfolding events, take close-up photos etc, then distribute these to the mesh network. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-flames-encroach-those-at-risk-may-lose-phone-signal-when-they-need-it-most-126827">As flames encroach, those at risk may lose phone signal when they need it most</a>
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<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photogrammetry">Photogrammetric</a> artificial intelligence can produce reliable information about physical environments by processing captured imagery. It integrates these videos to create live holograms in real time. This form of virtual reality will put observers right there on the ground. This will help authorities away from the scene to verify reports and more effectively coordinate relief efforts.</p>
<p>It may also assure family and friends that their loved ones in afflicted areas are OK.</p>
<h2>Learning from others</h2>
<p>California’s <a href="https://www.oneconcern.com/">One Concern</a> is an example of a next-generation disaster management service that provides a model for what could be achieved in Australia. </p>
<p>It has partnered with various city governments, including San Francisco and Los Angeles, to create virtual models of particular regions’ physical environment, by assigning “digital fingerprints” to each significant feature of that environment. The service constantly monitors any thermal shifts and seismic movement across the sensor network. </p>
<p>Processing this data together with historical data allows One Concern to run simulations to help determine the best course of action while a disaster event is unfolding. It can also highlight the most effective prevention methods, and where the greatest vulnerabilities are for the specific region and threat. </p>
<p>Crowd-sourcing software <a href="https://www.ushahidi.com/blog/2018/11/05/how-the-ushahidi-platform-works-and-what-comes-next">Ushahidi</a> (meaning “evidence” in Swahili) is another example of a useful tool for disaster or conflict management.</p>
<p>This free, open-source software is used at more than 100,000 communities globally.</p>
<p>During the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007%E2%80%932008_Kenyan_crisis">2007–2008 Kenyan election crisis</a>, a local blogger put a callout online. The blogger was seeking someone with the technical skills needed to produce a combined image of where violence was happening, to then overlay it on a map.</p>
<p>With no shortage of volunteers, it wasn’t long before the platform was up and running. Soon the site was crowd-sourcing up to 40,000 first-hand, geotagged and time-stamped reports. It also drew from social media posts and news articles.</p>
<p>The system was able to send information back to individuals on the ground to help them avoid locations where violence is reported. All of this happened beyond the surveillance capabilities of the government, which means contributors remained safe from reprisal.</p>
<h2>Looking to the future</h2>
<p>Traditional bushfire prevention methods so far have included managing <a href="https://science.howstuffworks.com/nature/natural-disasters/wildfire1.htm">fuel loads</a> with low intensity burns to reduce flammable vegetation and leaf-litter before they reach levels that result in destructive high-intensity. </p>
<p>While this method works where it is employed, it’s time we used 21st century solutions to tackle the increasing threat of bushfires. In many parts of Australia, the question is <em>when</em> a disaster will occur, not <em>if</em> it will.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/firestorms-and-flaming-tornadoes-how-bushfires-create-their-own-ferocious-weather-systems-126832">Firestorms and flaming tornadoes: how bushfires create their own ferocious weather systems</a>
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<p>First responders facing an advancing fire need all the help they can get, and strategically gathered information from smart systems will give our firefighters a distinct advantage.</p>
<p>The technologies discussed above are some of the ways we can rise to the challenge. We need to build stronger, more capable ways of preventing disaster where possible, managing the disaster while it happens, and identifying ways of becoming more disaster-resilient.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126830/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Tuffley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The convergence of technologies such as 5G, artificial intelligence and virtual reality may offer hope for the way we manage future bushfire disasters.David Tuffley, Senior Lecturer in Applied Ethics & CyberSecurity, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1268272019-11-13T02:14:55Z2019-11-13T02:14:55ZAs flames encroach, those at risk may lose phone signal when they need it most<p>Yesterday, New South Wales and Queensland issued fire warnings classified as either “catastrophic”, “severe” or “extreme” - and these conditions will <a href="https://www.ruralfire.qld.gov.au/Pages/FDR.aspx">remain</a> in the coming days.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301226/original/file-20191112-178502-1b0bha2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301226/original/file-20191112-178502-1b0bha2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301226/original/file-20191112-178502-1b0bha2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301226/original/file-20191112-178502-1b0bha2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301226/original/file-20191112-178502-1b0bha2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301226/original/file-20191112-178502-1b0bha2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1066&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301226/original/file-20191112-178502-1b0bha2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1066&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301226/original/file-20191112-178502-1b0bha2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1066&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The Bureau of Meteorology’s fire danger rating for Wednesday, November 13.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">RFS QLD</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Areas under threat include the greater Sydney area, northern New South Wales, the Northern Goldfields, and the Central Highlands. The declared state of emergency means human life is <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-12/nsw-bushfires-burn-amid-catastrophic-conditions-as-it-happened/11694646">at great risk</a>. </p>
<p>Those at risk should evacuate ahead of <a href="https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/news-and-media/general-news/dangerous-fire-conditions">time</a>, as mobile phone services may not be <a href="https://www.optus.com.au/about/media-centre/media-releases/2019/11/optus-update-tuesday-12-november-bushfires-network-update-plus-disaster-assistance-support-activated-mid-north-coast1">reliable</a> when needed the most. </p>
<h2>Service outages</h2>
<p>People in dangerous bushfire situations often have the added burden of service outages. This can happen following fire damage to infrastructure (such as signal towers) that connects base stations that relay communications within the <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/understanding-telecommunications-networks/oclc/1004191902">network</a>. A break in this connection means no signal, or weak signal, for those on the ground. </p>
<p>Generally, radio waves used for mobile communication behave differently as <a href="https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1276321#">they travel</a>, based on various factors that affect signal strength. One factor is land geography, such as the height of hills. The signal may not be able to penetrate sand hills. Gum trees may also reflect, obstruct and absorb radio signals. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/where-to-take-refuge-in-your-home-during-a-bushfire-72370">Where to take refuge in your home during a bushfire</a>
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<p>The scenarios described above can be made worse by fire environments, based on the <a href="https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/8967/5.1.3-Communication-Systems.pdf">frequencies</a> used. Flames can produce “plasma”, which reacts with the surrounding magnetic field, and this degrades signal strength.</p>
<p>Rural fire service operations may use frequencies in the 400-450MHz range to communicate, but these signals are weakened during fire, in which case they may use frequencies in the 100-180MHz range. At this wavelength, signal strength doesn’t degrade as badly and can sustain better <a href="https://digital.library.adelaide.edu.au/dspace/bitstream/2440/58684/8/02whole.pdf">communication</a>.</p>
<p>Being <a href="https://mobilenetworkguide.com.au/pdf/Mobile-Network-Guide-Improving-Mobile-Signal.pdf">far away from a mobile phone tower</a>, often in rural areas, also results in degraded communication. Rural areas don’t receive as much coverage because installing cell towers in these areas is not particularly profitable, and towers are built based on revenue estimates. There is little incentive to build networks with additional capacity in rural areas.</p>
<h2>Get out while you can</h2>
<p>In bushfire situations, it’s crucial to leave affected areas early to avoid becoming stuck in <a href="https://www.communications.gov.au/what-we-do/phone/mobile-services-and-coverage/mobile-black-spot-program">mobile black spots</a>. These are regional and remote areas that have been identified as not having mobile phone <a href="https://www.communications.gov.au/what-we-do/phone/mobile-services-and-coverage/mobile-black-spot-program">coverage</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1194128210902028289"}"></div></p>
<p>Some mobile black spots where fire danger warnings have been issued include Mount Seaview and Yarras, not far from the Oxley Highway in NSW. The status of the fires there was reported “out of control” <a href="https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/fires-near-me">on Tuesday morning</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-has-australia-learned-from-black-saturday-111245">What has Australia learned from Black Saturday?</a>
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<p>Optus is planning to <a href="https://www.optus.com.au/shop/mobile/network/mobile-black-spot-program">roll out macrocells</a> at these locations to expand coverage between the end of this year and the middle of next year. These are base stations that cover a wide area and are typically deployed in rural regions or along highways.</p>
<p>Until the macrocells are deployed, people living in mobile black spots, or who may be forced to pass through these areas due to fire, continue to be at risk. When passing through a fire-affected black spot, you are virtually <a href="https://www.communications.gov.au/what-we-do/phone/mobile-services-and-coverage/mobile-phone-towers">unreachable</a>.</p>
<p>Also, although the mobile black spot program will help to increase 4G coverage in rural areas, most rural areas, including many at high risk of bushfires, rely largely on 3G. When people need extra data capacity during emergencies, the network is incapable of handling the increased traffic load, as every device is trying to connect and download data at the minimum 3G capacity of 550Kbps. </p>
<h2>Network overload</h2>
<p>The network gets congested at times of catastrophe due to the high volume of mobile phone traffic experienced, which exceeds the available network capacity. The mobile network in Billy’s Creek in NSW, and the areas connected to it, experienced an outage <a href="https://www.optus.com.au/about/media-centre/media-releases/2019/11/optus-update-tuesday-12-november-bushfires-network-update-plus-disaster-assistance-support-activated-mid-north-coast1">yesterday</a>. </p>
<p>Telstra’s services have also been <a href="https://exchange.telstra.com.au/providing-bushfire-relief-to-our-customers-affected-in-new-south-wales/">affected</a>. As of Monday, people in Billy’s Creek, Yarras and Nimbin (among other locations) were unable to send or receive messages, make calls or access the internet, and may not have been up to date with the latest fire information, unless through radio or television.</p>
<p>During bushfires last year, for every three calls attempted under Telstra’s network, one was eventually <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-20/mobile-phone-blackspots-put-lives-at-risk-during-fires/9566338">answered</a>. Everyone trying to call at once is referred to as a “mass call event”. This creates “congestive collapse” in parts of the internet-based network, blocking new connections from being made. </p>
<p>During congestion, the performance of the network decreases because the internet packets that carry the calls or messages are dropped, or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1550147719829960">delayed</a>, before they reach their destination. One solution is for operators to have signal boosters installed for the affected part of the network.</p>
<h2>There’s an app for that, if you have good connection</h2>
<p>In the same way, the “Fires Near Me Australia” <a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=au.gov.nsw.rfs.firesnearme.national&hl=en">web application</a> is likely to suffer from internet packet deliveries being delayed. </p>
<p>The app may be overwhelmed if too many people try to access it at once, and may crash. In such scenarios, people should reboot their phones and keep trying to connect. </p>
<p>Some people have made complaints of not being able to download the app, and others of the app crashing, because their phone’s model was not new enough to support it.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1193813443008053250"}"></div></p>
<p>If the fires spread to densely populated areas, available 4G capacities may be exhausted by the sheer volume of the traffic. And congestion is made worse by more incoming traffic from across the country, from concerned family and friends.</p>
<p>Preventative measures may no longer be an option for many. But in the future, people in fire-prone areas may benefit from buying a personal 4G or 3G mobile signal booster ahead of time.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-keep-your-mobile-phone-connected-when-the-network-is-down-75301">How to keep your mobile phone connected when the network is down</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126827/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stanley Shanapinda is affiliated with the Optus La Trobe Cyber Security Research Hub. </span></em></p>Service outages, network congestion and infrastructure at risk of being destroyed by fire are some of the issues worsening an already devastating situation.Stanley Shanapinda, Research Fellow, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1016632018-08-17T02:16:05Z2018-08-17T02:16:05ZDrought, wind and heat: when fire seasons start earlier and last longer<p>The New South Wales Rural Fire Service declared the earliest <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/it-s-all-bad-earliest-total-fire-bans-on-record-an-ominous-sign-20180815-p4zxn8.html">total fire bans</a> in its history this week. The entire state was <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-08/nsw-government-says-entire-state-is-now-in-drought/10088628">declared to be in drought</a> on the same day. </p>
<p>The combination of winter drought and hot, dry weather has made dangerous fires increasingly likely. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/after-the-firestorm-the-health-implications-of-returning-to-a-bushfire-zone-93647">After the firestorm: the health implications of returning to a bushfire zone</a>
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<p>Already this week two fires on the south coast have escaped containment lines and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-16/houses-destroyed-bega-fire/10129172">destroyed houses</a>. The weather during these fires was 6°C warmer than the August average, dry and extremely windy. The wind speed peaked at 104 kilometres an hour in Bega and 85km/h in Nowra, two towns close to where fires broke out.</p>
<p>Under these conditions, bushfires will spread quickly, produce large numbers of embers and are hard to stop.</p>
<p>Our fire seasons now start earlier and last longer. This means we’re increasingly likely to see repeats of historically large fires threatening residential areas.</p>
<h2>Fire seasons are longer</h2>
<p>Current dry conditions are reflected in the maps of live fuel moisture produced by Dr Rachael Nolan of Western Sydney University.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232411/original/file-20180816-165961-10g0j70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232411/original/file-20180816-165961-10g0j70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232411/original/file-20180816-165961-10g0j70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=813&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232411/original/file-20180816-165961-10g0j70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=813&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232411/original/file-20180816-165961-10g0j70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=813&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232411/original/file-20180816-165961-10g0j70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1022&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232411/original/file-20180816-165961-10g0j70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1022&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232411/original/file-20180816-165961-10g0j70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1022&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016GL068614">Nolan R.H., Boer M.M., de Dios V.R., Caccamo G., Bradstock R.A. (2016), Large-scale, dynamic transformations in fuel moisture drive wildfire activity across southeastern Australia. Geophysical Research Letters 43, 4229-4238.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This method tracks the weekly moisture content of the forests in southern Australia, as observed by NASA’s <a href="https://terra.nasa.gov/about/terra-instruments/modis">MODIS</a> satellite. The latest map shows a patchy distribution of dry areas and a drying trend over recent weeks. </p>
<p>It looks like NSW’s fire season has already started, and it’s likely to be bad. Last year’s fire season also extended well into autumn, with serious bushfires burning in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017%E2%80%9318_Australian_bushfire_season">mid-April</a>.</p>
<p>Fire agencies usually enjoy a six-month break from bushfires between April and September, but this year they had only three months’ respite. </p>
<p>This reflects evidence of a trend toward more <a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3480">extreme fire weather</a> over the past 30 years, and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26172867">lengthening fire seasons</a>.</p>
<p>This problem is being keenly felt in western United States, where fire agencies have warned that the fire season <a href="http://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-carr-fire-wildfires-climate-change-20180730-story.html">now lasts all year round</a>. Not only that, there is <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28416662">clear evidence</a> climate change is increasing fire activity in the United States; the record for the largest fire in California history has been broken two years in a row. </p>
<h2>Alarming precedents</h2>
<p>The most damaging fire season for NSW in the past 30 years was in October 2013 when the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-17/remembering-the-blue-mountains-bushfires-one-year-on/5819100">Linksview fire</a> destroyed 200 houses in the Blue Mountains. </p>
<p>The build-up to that season was eerily similar to this year, with a winter drought and bushfires in September, but the moisture maps show that the forests are drier now than at the same time in 2013, and we have already seen serious bushfires in August.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/future-bushfires-will-be-worse-we-need-to-adapt-now-53041">Future bushfires will be worse: we need to adapt now</a>
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<p>As we move into September and October, the weather will warm, which means any remaining moisture in the ground and plants will evaporate even faster than at present, and fires will be more intense and spread faster. The only thing that will reduce the risk is soaking rain of at least 100mm. </p>
<p>Whether or not that will occur in the next two months is almost impossible to predict. At the moment it seems unlikely. The Bureau of Meteorology’s <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary">latest seasonal forecast</a>, issued on August 16, considers it likely that dry conditions will persist for the next three months.</p>
<p>The heightened risk of bushfire this season should be a wake-up call for residents in bushfire-prone areas. Most people in really risky areas such as the Blue Mountains are well prepared, but many people who are a little more removed from the forests are not aware of the risk.</p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/where-to-take-refuge-in-your-home-during-a-bushfire-72370">Where to take refuge in your home during a bushfire</a>
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<p>For example, many residents of Wollongong probably don’t know this October is the 50th anniversary of the great 1968 fires that swept down the Illawarra Escarpment into the suburbs of Figtree, Bulli, Austinmer and others.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232412/original/file-20180817-165955-1f2bhyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232412/original/file-20180817-165955-1f2bhyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232412/original/file-20180817-165955-1f2bhyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232412/original/file-20180817-165955-1f2bhyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232412/original/file-20180817-165955-1f2bhyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232412/original/file-20180817-165955-1f2bhyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232412/original/file-20180817-165955-1f2bhyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232412/original/file-20180817-165955-1f2bhyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The footprint of the 1968 Illawarra fires, which burned through residential areas.</span>
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</figure>
<p>If the same footprint of fire were to occur again, some 5,000 houses would be affected. The present indicators suggest a repeat of this event is more likely than at any time for decades.</p>
<p>Residents need to prepare a bushfire survival plan, which includes a decision on whether to stay and defend or to leave as soon as they learn about a nearby bushfire. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-deadly-bushfire-gamble-risk-your-life-or-bet-your-house-21968">Our deadly bushfire gamble: risk your life or bet your house</a>
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<p>Current research at University of Wollongong suggests that the biggest influence on the risk of house loss during a bushfire is the actions that the residents themselves take. This includes ensuring that natural and man-made fuels are kept to a minimum in the garden, especially close to the house, and also defending the house from spot-fires caused by embers. </p>
<p>The Rural Fire Service has a wealth of advice for preparing for bushfires on its <a href="https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare">website</a>.</p>
<p>We’re look at a torrid upcoming fire season, dependent on the vagaries of the Australian climate. Either way, now is the time for people to brace themselves and get prepared.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101663/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Owen Price receives funding from the Rural Fire Service, NSW, the Office of Environment and Heritage NSW, the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning VIC and the Australian Research Council. He consults regularly with these organisations. He is affiliated with the Australian Greens. </span></em></p>The same day all of New South Wales was declared in drought, the state’s Rural Fire Service issued its earliest ever total fire bans.Owen Price, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/891672017-12-15T04:48:19Z2017-12-15T04:48:19ZTo fight the catastrophic fires of the future, we need to look beyond prescribed burning<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199180/original/file-20171214-27555-1noxo9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/ Darren Pateman</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>California is <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/12/us/california-fires/index.html">burning</a> – a sentence we’ve heard far too often this year. Sydney is currently on <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/fire-weather-warning-issued-as-sydney-braces-for-42c/news-story/5406ccff2b5a585cd823cf0cf6908822">bushfire alert</a>, as firefighters battle a fire in the Hunter Valley region and temperatures are set to top 40°C.</p>
<p>A cocktail of factors, from climate change to centuries of ignoring indigenous burning practises, means that catastrophic fires are likely to become more common.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dry-winter-primes-sydney-basin-for-early-start-of-bushfire-season-82641">Dry winter primes Sydney Basin for early start of bushfire season</a>
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</em>
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<p>One of Australia’s favourite fire prevention measures is prescribed burning – using carefully controlled fires to clear out flammable materials. We’re almost obsessed with it. Indeed, it seems the outcome of every major inquiry is that we need to do more of it. </p>
<p>The Royal Commission inquiry that followed Victoria’s 2009 Black Saturday fires <a href="http://royalcommission.vic.gov.au/Commission-Reports/Final-Report.html">recommended</a> that 5% of all public land in Victoria be treated per year – a doctrine that was subsequently dropped due to impracticality. </p>
<p>Yet our research, published <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF17061">today</a> in the International Journal of Wildland Fire, modelled thousands of fires in Tasmania and found that nearly a third of the state would have to be burned to effectively lower the risk of bushfires. </p>
<p>The question of how much to burn and where is a puzzle we must solve, especially given the inherent risk, issues caused by smoke <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2016/205/9/rapid-assessment-impact-hazard-reduction-burning-around-sydney-may-2016?inline=true">smoke</a> and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/James_Ricketts/publication/252471836_Climate_Change_Impacts_on_Fire-Weather_in_South-East_Australia/links/54a86d870cf257a6360bdfea/Climate-Change-Impacts-on-Fire-Weather-in-South-East-Australia.pdf">shrinking</a> weather windows for safe burning due to climate change. </p>
<h2>Why use computer simulations?</h2>
<p>The major problem fire science faces is gathering data. Landscape-scale experiments involving extreme fire are rare, for obvious reasons of risk and cost. When a major bushfire happens, all the resources go into putting it out and protecting people. Nobody has the time to painstakingly collect data on how fast it is moving and what it is burning. We are therefore restricted to a few limited data sources to reconstruct the behaviour and impact of fire: we can analyse the <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/WF05051">scar</a> on the landscape after a fire, look at <a href="https://www.ffm.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0016/21049/Report-41-The-Effect-of-Fuel-Reduction-Burning-on-the-Suppression-of-Four-Wildfires-in-Western-Victoria.pdf">case studies</a>, or run <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479712001752">simulations of computer models</a>. </p>
<p>Most research on the effectiveness of prescribed burning has been at a local scale. We need to start thinking bigger: how can we mitigate the effect of multiple large fires in a region like Tasmania or Southeastern Australia? What is the cumulative effect of different prescribed burning strategies? </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199366/original/file-20171215-26014-ff04t4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199366/original/file-20171215-26014-ff04t4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199366/original/file-20171215-26014-ff04t4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199366/original/file-20171215-26014-ff04t4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199366/original/file-20171215-26014-ff04t4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199366/original/file-20171215-26014-ff04t4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199366/original/file-20171215-26014-ff04t4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199366/original/file-20171215-26014-ff04t4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A large fuel reduction burn off on Hobart’s eastern shore.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/babomike/8889414172/">Flickr/Mike Rowe</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>To answer these questions, we create models using mathematical equations to simulate the behaviour of fires across actual landscapes. These models include the effects of vegetation type, terrain and fuel loads, under specific weather conditions. If we simulate thousands of these fires we can get an idea of where fire risk is the highest, and how effective prescribed burning is at reducing that risk.</p>
<p>The island of Tasmania offers the perfect study system. Self-contained, with a wide array of vegetation types and fire regimes, it offers an ideal opportunity to see how fire behaves across a diverse landscape. Perhaps more interestingly, the island contains large areas of flammable landscape surrounding <a href="http://www.parliament.tas.gov.au/CTEE/Council/Submissions/ET%202.31.pdf">globally unique</a> ecosystems and numerous towns and villages. Obviously, we cannot set fire to all of Tasmania in real life, but computer simulations make it possible! </p>
<p>So, encouraged by the Tasmanian Fire Service, who initiated our research, we simulated tens of thousands of fires across Tasmania under a range of prescribed burning scenarios.</p>
<h2>Prescribed fire can be effective, in theory</h2>
<p>The first scenario we looked at was the best-case scenario: what happens if we perform prescribed burning on all the vegetation that can handle it, given theoretically unlimited resources? It is possible this approximates the <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01426390701767278">sustained and skillful burning</a> by Tasmanian Aboriginal peoples.</p>
<p>Wildfire simulations following this scenario suggested that such an approach would be extremely effective. Importantly, we saw significant reductions in fire activity even in areas where prescribed burning is impossible (for example, due to the presence of people). </p>
<p>Unfortunately, this best-case approach, while interesting from a theoretical perspective, would require prescribed burning over more than 30% of Tasmania in one year.</p>
<p>We also analysed the effects of 12 more realistic scenarios. These realistic plans were less than half as efficient as the best-case scenario at reducing fire activity.</p>
<p>On average, 3 hectares of prescribed burning would reduce wildfire extent by roughly 1ha in grasslands and dry forests. </p>
<p>In other flammable Tasmanian vegetation types like buttongrass sedgelands and heathlands, the reduction in wildfire was even smaller. This is obviously better than no prescribed burning, but it highlights the fact that this is a relatively inefficient tool, and given the costs and potential drawbacks, should be used only where it is most needed.</p>
<p>This is a fundamental conundrum of prescribed burning: though it is quite effective in theory, the extent to which we would need to implement it to affect fire behaviour across the entire state is completely unachievable. </p>
<p>Therefore, it is imperative that we not just blindly burn a pre-ordained fraction of the landscape. Rather, we must carefully design localised prescribed burning interventions to reduce risk to communities.</p>
<h2>We need a multi-tool approach</h2>
<p>Our study has shown that while prescribed burning can be quite effective in certain scenarios, it has serious constraints. Additionally, while we analysed these scenarios under bad fire weather, we were not able to analyse the kind of catastrophic days in which the effect of prescribed burning is <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479713006531">seriously reduced</a>, with howling dry winds and stupefying heat. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, due to climate change, we are going to see a lot more catastrophic days in the future in <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF13126">Tasmania</a> and indeed <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-016-0058">globally</a>. </p>
<p>In Hobart this is of particular concern, as the city is surrounded by tall, wet eucalypt forests that have had fifty years grow dense understoreys since the 1967 <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-06/tasmanias-1967-black-tuesday-bushfires-explained/8241698">Black Tuesday</a> fires. These have the potential to cause some of the <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112799000663#BIB16">most intense</a> fires on the planet should conditions get dry enough. Prescribed burning is impossible in these forests.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/where-to-take-refuge-in-your-home-during-a-bushfire-72370">Where to take refuge in your home during a bushfire</a>
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<p>To combat fire risk we must take a multi-pronged approach that includes innovative strategies, such as designing new <a href="https://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs/rmrs_gtr292/2001_finney.pdf">spatial patterns</a> for prescribed burning, <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00049158.2017.1311200">manually removing</a> fuels from areas in which prescribed burning is not possible, <a href="https://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2017/H10/sharples3.pdf">improving the standards</a> for buildings and defensible spaces, and most importantly, engaging the community in all of this. </p>
<p>Only by attacking this problem from multiple angles, and through close collaboration with the community and all levels of government, can we effectively face our fiery future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89167/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Furlaud receives funding from the Bushfire and Natural Hazard Cooperative Research Centre. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Bowman receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Bushfire and Natural Hazard CRC, Hobart City Council and the Tasmanian Fire Service.</span></em></p>Australia’s national obsession with prescribed burning won’t be enough to manage the growing risk of devastating bushfires.James Furlaud, PhD Student in Fire Ecology, University of TasmaniaDavid Bowman, Professor, Environmental Change Biology, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/723702017-08-20T19:28:36Z2017-08-20T19:28:36ZWhere to take refuge in your home during a bushfire<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182341/original/file-20170817-28092-1s4jus6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fire threatening a house in Pelican Bay in 2006. If you need to shelter from a fire in your house, know where your exits are and be aware of surrounding vegetation. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/1234abcd/298686266/">thinboyfatter/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When you live in a bushfire-prone area you can’t ignore the danger. Most individuals and families address this necessity by preparing a <a href="http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare/bush-fire-survival-plan">bushfire survival plan</a>. The best way to <a href="https://www.dfes.wa.gov.au/safetyinformation/fire/bushfire/pages/surviveabushfire.aspx#2">survive a bushfire</a> is not to be there when it arrives. </p>
<p>For most Australian fire agencies the “<a href="http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/plan-prepare/leave-early/">leave early</a>” policy has largely replaced the previous “stay and defend or leave early” one. This
reflects an emphasis on preserving human life during a bushfire event – an emphasis that has strengthened since the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-prepare-your-home-for-a-bushfire-and-when-to-leave-50962">How to prepare your home for a bushfire – and when to leave</a>
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<p>Even when planning to leave early, unexpected events can occur. Not being able to find a child or family pet may delay departure until it’s no longer safe to travel. Taking refuge in your home then becomes a last resort, a worst-case scenario. But this contingency is worth considering as part of your bushfire survival plan. </p>
<p>If you do need to take refuge inside your home during a bushfire, which parts are likely to be the safest? As part of my PhD research, I asked 252 residents living in bushfire-prone areas which parts of their houses they would shelter in during a bushfire, which parts they would avoid, and why. I then analysed the features of these locations against the known places <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/download?pid=csiro:EP129645&dsid=DS2">where people died in their home during bushfires in Australia from 1901 to 2011</a>. </p>
<p>Determining the safer places to shelter is further complicated as all houses are not the same. There are many different types, with large variations in design, construction materials, location and surrounding vegetation. It is therefore not possible to give absolute answers on where people should take shelter in their homes during a bushfire, but some general guidelines can be given.</p>
<h2>Where are the safer spaces to shelter?</h2>
<p>Upstairs is generally a more dangerous space to seek shelter during a bushfire. Upstairs levels are more difficult to escape from. Often they have large windows and sliding glass doors which are designed to capture views, but due to radiant heat and strong winds can crack and implode. Upper levels are often constructed of lightweight materials that are more flammable and vulnerable to direct flame contact from burning trees.</p>
<p>The ground floor is generally a safer space to shelter. The ground level usually has more external doors from which the occupant can escape. On a sloping block, however, the easiest level from which to exit may be the first floor. The ground level often has smaller windows (except those leading to entertainment areas). From the ground floor it is easier to get to the driveway and closer to an external water source such as a water tank.</p>
<p>People often suggest the bathroom as a good place to shelter during a bushfire. However, the bathroom can also be dangerous. During a bushfire, mains water is often cut or the pressure is reduced to a trickle. Despite having tiled walls, non-combustible fittings and a water supply, bathrooms like other rooms are vulnerable to the collapse of a burning ceiling when embers have ignited in the roof cavity.</p>
<p>Most bathrooms do not have an external door that residents can use to exit the house. In a bathroom it can be difficult to see the progress of a fire. And as bathrooms are small enclosed spaces they may be more vulnerable to carbon monoxide poisoning. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/low-flammability-plants-could-help-our-homes-survive-bushfires-53870">Low flammability plants could help our homes survive bushfires</a>
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</p>
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<p>My advice is to look at all the external ground floor doors (while remembering that glass doors can be dangerous because of their vulnerability to radiant heat), and determine which of them provide access to adjoining outside paved, gravel, concrete or other non-combustible areas. You should also see if there is a small window from which you can observe the progress of the bushfire, and if there is a sink close by to store water. Where possible consider installing a fire alarm that has a carbon monoxide sensor with audible and visual alerts. </p>
<p>When you have identified the most suitable place in the house to actively shelter during a bushfire, follow the bushfire preparation activities provided by <a href="http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/fm_files/attachments/plan_and_prepare/frk_2013/Section3_Duringafire_ifyoucannotleave.pdf">fire authorities</a>. Some of these will include looking out of a window to follow the progress of the fire and being aware of current bushfire updates on the radio and via mobile phone. There is no such thing as passive sheltering. </p>
<p>Being inside your home as the fire passes offers more protection than being outside. But it should be seen as a last resort, with leaving early the preferred action. Fire agencies work hard to inform residents of days when bushfires are likely, and to provide updates on fires that do break out. Residents in bushfire-prone areas should take these warnings and updates seriously and leave their properties when advised to do so, especially when catastrophic fires are expected. </p>
<p><br></p>
<p><em>The advice given in this article is general and may not suit every circumstance.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72370/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Douglas Brown is the Principal of Bushfire Architecture a research consultancy which provides design advice to building professionals with clients in bushfire-prone areas. He also works as a casual academic at Western Sydney University. He was the recipient of a PhD scholarship from Bushfire CRC. </span></em></p>Leaving early is the best response to a bushfire, but it’s not always possible. Every house is different, but there are some general guidelines for finding the safest spots to shelter in your home.Douglas Brown, PhD candidate (approved), University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/639432016-08-22T04:19:34Z2016-08-22T04:19:34ZNew modelling on bushfires shows how they really burn through an area<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134738/original/image-20160819-12303-1n7fvu2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fire rages through the forest in a typical Australian bushfire.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/imani/7820049526/">Flickr/HighExposure</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Bushfires in Australia can have a devastating impact on an environment and destroy homes and lives, so any effort to prevent them is a welcome move.</p>
<p>But the way that we have traditionally understood bushfires and forest flammability in Australia is not up to the challenges of our changing climate. Thankfully, a new approach is making sense of the confusion by looking at the plants themselves.</p>
<p>Unfortunately though, time is running out. Years ago I could stand on a ridge in the mountains as winter gales roared through the Alpine Ash forests on the slopes below me. There’d be black cockatoos on the wind and the first hard snow flakes rattling on my coat. It was a wildness that stung the eyes with raw beauty.</p>
<p>Sadly those forests are dying. They are being burnt so often that <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12433/full">they may be gone</a> by the end of the century. Like the <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/aec.12200/abstract">tallest hardwoods in the world</a> and the <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/tasmanian-bushfires-threaten-iconic-ancient-forests-1.19308">thousand year old King Billy pines of Tasmania</a>, they are places we have no room for in our fossil fuel economy.</p>
<p>It’s not that fire is bad; our forests need it. But it’s coming so hard and fast in this changing climate. We fight the fires and we manage the fuels as best we can, but our best efforts are only as good as the science they are built on, and there are some hard questions to be asked about that science. </p>
<p>At the heart of our traditional approach are hand-drawn dots on a graph from a <a href="http://trove.nla.gov.au/version/26402708">leaflet</a> published by Australian <a href="http://oa.anu.edu.au/obituary/mcarthur-alan-grant-10889">bushfire expert Alan McArthur</a> in the 1960s. Nine data points telling us that if we halve the fuel load – the leaf litter on the ground – we can halve the speed of the fire.</p>
<p>It has never been backed by evidence, but in the absence of something better it became the bedrock of Australian fire management. One rule for all forests: burn them.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134739/original/image-20160819-6906-553f2e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134739/original/image-20160819-6906-553f2e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134739/original/image-20160819-6906-553f2e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=246&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134739/original/image-20160819-6906-553f2e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=246&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134739/original/image-20160819-6906-553f2e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=246&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134739/original/image-20160819-6906-553f2e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134739/original/image-20160819-6906-553f2e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134739/original/image-20160819-6906-553f2e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An aerial infrared photo of the fire edge near Jindabyne in January, 2003.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Philip Zylstra</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But in the past two hundred years, Australian forests have been <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379110003768">getting more fire</a> than at any time in the tens of thousands of years before, and all of the controlled burning is not helping. </p>
<p>For 26 out of 30 bioregions in south-east Australia, there is <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jbi.12579/full">no evidence</a> that prescribed burning has reduced bush fire sizes.</p>
<h2>New thinking</h2>
<p>Clearly, it’s time for a rethink. Can a few centimetres of leaf litter on the ground really give us enormous crown fires? Any fire fighter will disagree, saying you need tree crowns to get a crown fire. The issue then is not how much fuel you have, but whether flames will span the gaps to ignite those plants.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134599/original/image-20160818-12274-xshx7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134599/original/image-20160818-12274-xshx7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134599/original/image-20160818-12274-xshx7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=672&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134599/original/image-20160818-12274-xshx7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=672&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134599/original/image-20160818-12274-xshx7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=672&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134599/original/image-20160818-12274-xshx7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=844&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134599/original/image-20160818-12274-xshx7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=844&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134599/original/image-20160818-12274-xshx7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=844&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flames burning surface litter are small (top), large flames only occur when plants are burning (bottom).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Philip Zylstra</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are no mysterious black box equations to tell us the answer to this, so it needs sound science. The <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0160715">Forest Flammability Model</a> we have developed is an attempt to join the dots and build a full picture.</p>
<p>How high will the flames be from a burning plant? How hot will it be above them at the next plant? How long will those leaves take to ignite? And will the first leaves stay alight long enough for that to happen?</p>
<p>The strength of this approach is that every part of it is open to question and improvement. If someone finds that the oils in leaves affect the way they ignite, or that they can better model the angle of a flame, we can build that in to our model.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134598/original/image-20160818-12300-d07ixh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134598/original/image-20160818-12300-d07ixh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134598/original/image-20160818-12300-d07ixh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=232&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134598/original/image-20160818-12300-d07ixh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=232&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134598/original/image-20160818-12300-d07ixh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=232&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134598/original/image-20160818-12300-d07ixh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134598/original/image-20160818-12300-d07ixh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134598/original/image-20160818-12300-d07ixh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Two identical scenarios, but with different shrub species. Larger flames from the more flammable shrub (right) ignite the tree canopy, causing crown fire.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Philip Zylstra</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Testing the model</h2>
<p>If flammability is about surface fuel load, then old forests are always more flammable than young ones because fuel accumulates. </p>
<p>But plants change as fire germinates some, they then grow and others die. The pattern of flammability could be different in every forest. When I looked at snow gums, I found that our model recreated the same pattern of flammability that we could see from <a href="http://ro.uow.edu.au/smhpapers/1332/">53 years of mapped history</a>. It broke the established rules as the regrowth was more flammable than the old forests. </p>
<p>Our team later looked at 58 sites across eight different ecosystems ranging from woodland to tall wet forest, all burnt under a wide range of conditions that gave everything from tiny flames to 30 metre crown fires. </p>
<p>Our model recreated the flame heights with an average error of only 40cm, and correctly predicted larger flames <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0160715">12 times more often</a> than the best available surface fuel model.</p>
<h2>Fire predictions</h2>
<p>The implications of this are significant. We can find where fire belongs and where it doesn’t. We can plan burn prescriptions around the plants they affect, find what the effects of logging or grazing might be and where it’s safe to build. We can see what will happen if more carbon dioxide changes leaves or more heatwaves dry some species.</p>
<p>Bushmen have long talked about “kerosene bush” – shrubs that go up in flame like a bonfire soaked with petrol – and ecologists have been studying individual traits that make leaves more or less flammable. </p>
<p>This model is the first complete picture of how it all fits together. It means that we are no longer limited to rules of thumb, that we can learn what we should have learnt long ago, the way fire should look in Australia.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63943/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Zylstra receives funding from the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage, and is a recent member of the Greens.</span></em></p>We can manage the risks from bushfires far more effectively if we look at the ways different plant species control the the way the fires burn.Philip Zylstra, Research Fellow, flammability and fire behaviour, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/538702016-02-25T23:28:58Z2016-02-25T23:28:58ZLow flammability plants could help our homes survive bushfires<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112856/original/image-20160225-15150-91t8sv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Throw another one on. Researchers tested plant flammability using a blow torch and barbecue. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sarah Wyse</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Destructive wildfires are becoming more common in many parts of the world and are <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0005102">predicted to worsen with climate change</a>. Therefore, we need to explore a range of options to reduce fire risk in the landscape, particularly in areas where human homes and infrastructure (or <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/tasmanian-bushfires-threaten-iconic-ancient-forests-1.19308">vulnerable ecosystems, such as in Tasmania</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfires-are-pushing-species-towards-extinction-54109">wildlife</a>) are next to plants that fuel wildfires.</p>
<p>One approach to reducing wildfire spread is to plant “<a href="https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjj0e6fwO_KAhXDOJQKHeBgBRwQFggaMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fire.org.nz%2Fresearch%2FPublished-Reports%2FDocuments%2F89fa12a030b48531cf396dcdba52c6e2.pdf&usg=AFQjCNHGGN1DkwLXh8WIV1sDLKnl1l-hzQ&bvm=bv.113943164,d.dGo">green firebreaks</a>” – strips of vegetation made up of plants with low flammability. Green firebreaks are based on the idea that this less flammable vegetation will extinguish a fire, or embers <a href="http://learningcenter.firewise.org/Firefighter-Safety/1-11.php">spotting</a> ahead of a fire front.</p>
<p>Green firebreaks also serve other purposes. If comprised of native species, they can improve biodiversity and provide ecosystem services. They are also often more aesthetically pleasing than firebreaks of bare earth or lawn grass.</p>
<p>The planting of low-flammability species in gardens and on property boundaries has been advocated in many parts of the world, including <a href="http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/plan-prepare/plant-selection-key/">Australia</a>, <a href="https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjj0e6fwO_KAhXDOJQKHeBgBRwQFggaMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fire.org.nz%2Fresearch%2FPublished-Reports%2FDocuments%2F89fa12a030b48531cf396dcdba52c6e2.pdf&usg=AFQjCNHGGN1DkwLXh8WIV1sDLKnl1l-hzQ&bvm=bv.113943164,d.dGo">New Zealand</a>, the <a href="http://cesutter.ucanr.edu/files/156934.pdf">United States</a> and Europe. Many <a href="https://www.anbg.gov.au/bibliography/fire-plants.html">lists</a> of suitable species are available. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, <a href="http://cesutter.ucanr.edu/files/156934.pdf">many resources don’t specify</a> how these species lists were developed. <a href="http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/plan-prepare/plant-selection-key/">Some base their recommendations on particular plant characteristics</a> known to influence flammability, while others come from observations of how well certain plants burn in wildfires. </p>
<p>However, very few lists are derived from <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/?paper=WF07128">experimental tests of plant flammability</a>. We set about testing which New Zealand plants were the least flammable – by throwing them on the barbecue. </p>
<h2>Burning New Zealand plants</h2>
<p>Wildfires in New Zealand are <a href="http://www.nzjf.org/free_issues/NZJF53_3_2008/7F748491-E699-4704-A072-5E14722F132F.pdf">rarely as destructive</a> or extensive as those in Australia or the US, but fire was <a href="http://newzealandecology.org/nzje/3198.pdf">responsible for widespread deforestation</a> in New Zealand following the two main waves of human settlement. </p>
<p>However, <a href="https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=8&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiy7vue0-_KAhVEJJQKHXTiAxEQFghFMAc&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mpi.govt.nz%2Fdocument-vault%2F6214&usg=AFQjCNFeciM7hNIZ3lESJ-37X_jGHvno9g&bvm=bv.113943164,d.dGo">fire danger will likely increase</a> in parts of New Zealand due to climate change. Furthermore, certain New Zealand ecosystems have become more flammable due to <a href="http://newzealandecology.org/nzje/3198.pdf">invasions by exotic plant species</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjj0e6fwO_KAhXDOJQKHeBgBRwQFggaMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fire.org.nz%2Fresearch%2FPublished-Reports%2FDocuments%2F89fa12a030b48531cf396dcdba52c6e2.pdf&usg=AFQjCNHGGN1DkwLXh8WIV1sDLKnl1l-hzQ&bvm=bv.113943164,d.dGo">New Zealand guidelines on plant flammability</a> have existed for several decades, but have rarely been scientifically tested. These guidelines have been used to <a href="http://wellington.govt.nz/%7E/media/about-wellington/emergency-management/files/scrubfires.pdf">encourage people to plant green firebreaks</a>. </p>
<p>In our <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/WF15047.htm">paper</a> published in the International Journal of Wildland Fire, we compared the flammability of 60 common plant species from New Zealand. We used a recently developed <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1442-9993.2010.02222.x/abstract">method for testing shoot flammability</a>. This involves placing shoots on a grill (our “<a href="https://vimeo.com/144082851">plant barbecue</a>”), turning on a blowtorch and then measuring how easily samples ignited, how hot they got, how long they burned for, and how much of them burned. </p>
<p>We tested 27 species and found good agreement with the guidelines currently in use, showing that New Zealand fire managers have a good understanding of plant flammability.</p>
<figure>
<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/144082851" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Chuck another one on the barbie.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We found some surprises though. Two species (<a href="http://www.nzpcn.org.nz/flora_details.aspx?ID=1036">silver beech</a> and <a href="http://www.nzpcn.org.nz/flora_details.aspx?ID=2100">rimu</a>) had much higher flammability in our tests and others had much lower flammability than the national guidelines. This highlights the importance of using different methods to gauge plant flammability.</p>
<h2>How can this help me protect my home and property?</h2>
<p>Given favourable fire conditions, any plant will burn, so green firebreaks are unlikely to provide protection in extreme fire conditions. The best option to protect houses from such fires may well be to <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0029212">reduce fuel within a 40m radius</a>. </p>
<p>In less extreme fire conditions, green firebreaks are one of the options available to land managers to reduce fire spread across the landscape and could be established in areas where fire risk is greater, such as on the edge of highly flammable ecosystems. We should also consider deploying green firebreaks comprised of native species to help protect large-scale restoration projects.</p>
<p>At the individual plant level, certain <a href="http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/plan-prepare/plant-selection-key/">traits make plants more or less flammable</a>. </p>
<p>One key factor is moisture content; <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4220095/">plants with moister leaves are less likely to ignite</a> and don’t burn as readily. Hence, it helps to keep your plants well watered when fires threaten. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4220095/">Some plants retain dead leaves and branches</a> that provide ready fuel during a fire. Therefore, pruning dead limbs is a good way to reduce fire risk around your home.</p>
<p>While we are increasing our understanding of plant flammability, many questions remain. For instance, we have been testing plant shoots, but do whole plants burn differently? Under what climatic conditions does a low flammability species become a readily burning fuel? What happens when you burn low and high flammability species together? <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0079205">What risk do highly flammable weed species pose when they invade new areas</a>? </p>
<p>We plan to tackle these and other questions by throwing many more plants on our barbie!</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/53870/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>You might think having trees around your home is the worst idea during a bushfire, but some plants can actually help repel fire.Tim Curran, Senior Lecturer in Ecology, Lincoln University, New ZealandGeorge Perry, Professor, School of Environment, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauSarah Wyse, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, The Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew and Research Fellow, School of Environment, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.