tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/canadian-federal-elections-108953/articlesCanadian federal elections – The Conversation2023-03-10T00:05:35Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2005182023-03-10T00:05:35Z2023-03-10T00:05:35ZWomen in politics: To run or not to run?<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="Event poster: In Conversation With Semra Sevi, March 15 at 1 p.m. ET" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514564/original/file-20230309-26-t58ci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514564/original/file-20230309-26-t58ci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514564/original/file-20230309-26-t58ci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514564/original/file-20230309-26-t58ci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514564/original/file-20230309-26-t58ci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514564/original/file-20230309-26-t58ci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514564/original/file-20230309-26-t58ci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.meetview.ca/SSHRC20230315/">Click here to register for In Conversation With Semra Sevi.</a></span>
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<p><em>Editor’s note: This story is part of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/topics/in-conversation-with-118639">series</a> that includes live interviews with Canada’s top social sciences and humanities academics. <a href="https://www.meetview.ca/SSHRC20230315/">Click here to register for In Conversation With Semra Sevi</a>, March 15 at 1 p.m. ET. This is a virtual event co-hosted by The Conversation Canada and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council.</em></p>
<p>Despite progress towards gender equality, women’s representation in Canadian politics continues to fall short. With <a href="https://semrasevi.com/candidates-in-canadian-elections-datasets/#jp-carousel-1107">only 30 per cent of seats in the House of Commons held by women</a>, there is still a long way to go for Parliament to capture the diversity of the population it represents. </p>
<p>There are several factors that contribute to the persistent gender disparities in the political process. Research on women in politics has identified multiple obstacles that hinder women’s representation, with three factors emerging as the most prominent explanations. </p>
<h2>Three obstacles to women in politics</h2>
<p>The first is that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423918000495">voters might have gender bias</a>. This is the idea that, for various reasons, voters might prefer a man over a woman candidate. </p>
<p>The second is that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12158">women may not be interested to run as candidates</a>. This is the idea that women might be more risk-averse when it comes to campaigns and elections, or that women may lack self-confidence and have lower levels of political ambition compared to men.</p>
<p>The third obstacle is that even when women are willing to run, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.0092-5853.2004.00069.x">parties tend to choose men over women</a>. This might be because they believe the likelihood of men winning is higher than for women. That means that while parties have the tools to diversify candidate slates and to address electoral underrepresentation, they frequently act as gatekeepers. </p>
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<img alt="Chart showing percentage of women in the population, candidates and MPs" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514562/original/file-20230309-147-c4ljrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514562/original/file-20230309-147-c4ljrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514562/original/file-20230309-147-c4ljrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514562/original/file-20230309-147-c4ljrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514562/original/file-20230309-147-c4ljrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514562/original/file-20230309-147-c4ljrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514562/original/file-20230309-147-c4ljrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Only 30 per cent of seats in Canada’s House of Commons are held by women.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Semra Sevi</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<h2>Testing the theories with data</h2>
<p>I have spent several years gathering data and conducting experiments to examine these theories explaining why women are underrepresented in politics.</p>
<p>I built an <a href="https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/ABFNSQ">original longitudinal dataset</a> that tracks all candidates across elections since 1867 in Canadian federal elections. This is the first publicly available comprehensive data of candidate election returns in Canada. </p>
<p>These data include all candidates who ran for elections at the federal level and includes socio-demographic information about them such as their gender, age, whether they’re incumbents, occupation, Indigenous origins, if they identify as a member of the LGBTQ2+ community and so on. I have also collected similar information for candidates at the Ontario provincial level. </p>
<p>I have used these data to examine whether women get fewer votes than men at both <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423918000495">the federal</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.ca/citations?view_op=view_citation&hl=en&user=FR9yorkAAAAJ&citation_for_view=FR9yorkAAAAJ:3fE2CSJIrl8C">Ontario provincial</a> level. </p>
<p>I find that while women used to receive fewer votes, this is no longer the case. Women who run are just as likely to win as their men counterparts. </p>
<p>However, if we believe voters are biased against women, we would expect to see this even after they are elected. Therefore, I also examined whether <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/lsq.12376">incumbency advantage is gendered</a>. Here also I did not find any evidence to suggest that voters are biased against women incumbents. </p>
<p>More recently, I revisited the second explanation that women are more risk-averse to campaigns and elections with my PhD adviser, <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andre-blais-1269820/articles">André Blais</a>. We designed an online laboratory experiment during the peak of the pandemic. This was an interactive experiment with three elections: 1) a lottery election with no campaign; 2) election with votes but no campaign; and 3) election with votes and a campaign. </p>
<p>We find that women are just as likely as men to be candidates in all three types of elections. In other words, women do not appear to be less willing to run in elections with campaigns. </p>
<h2>Political party recruitment</h2>
<p>In summary, my work suggests that the underrepresentation of women in politics is not due to a shortage of qualified women candidates or voter bias against women candidates. By process of elimination, my future work will examine whether the gender gap persists because parties tend to prefer men candidates over women candidates. </p>
<p>We see some evidence of this when we look at memoirs written by politicians. </p>
<p>Anecdotally, we know that women are less likely to be encouraged to run for office than men. Memoirs written by men politicians in Canada show a consistent pattern. They reveal that although they believe they were born to lead someday, and were looking to fulfil a lifelong dream, they were more likely to be recruited by multiple sources to run for office. </p>
<p>Women, on the other hand, are more likely to say they entered politics because of a specific policy concern and, if they were recruited, it was by fewer sources and on fewer occasions. </p>
<p>Unlocking the bottleneck for women in politics requires a closer examination of the party recruitment process. By identifying the obstacles that women face, we can pave the way forward towards a more inclusive Parliament.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200518/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Semra Sevi receives funding from SSHRC for her Banting postdoctoral fellowship in the Department of Political Science at Columbia University. She is also a visiting scholar at McGill University with the Institute for the Study of Canada. </span></em></p>Research suggests that women may be underrepresented in politics because parties act as gatekeepers and tend to choose men over women as candidates.Semra Sevi, Banting Postdoctoral Researcher, Department of Political Science, Columbia University. Incoming Assistant Professor of Canadian Politics, Department of Political Science, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1906402022-09-27T17:31:56Z2022-09-27T17:31:56ZNot again: Why another federal election may be on the horizon in Canada<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486632/original/file-20220926-25-vz2z3y.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7968%2C4914&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre greet each other as they gather in the House of Commons to pay tribute to Queen Elizabeth in Ottawa on Sept. 15, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-pierre-poilievres-leadership-means-for-the-future-of-the-conservative-party-189845">recent selection of Pierre Poilievre as Conservative leader</a> and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-next-election-plans-1.6225958">Justin Trudeau’s announcement that he will lead the Liberals</a> into the next federal election has started a chain of events that will play out over the next 12 months. </p>
<p>After that Canadians can expect another federal election.</p>
<p>During the past century, <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/minority-government">no minority government has lasted three years</a>; most far less. Trudeau’s current minority isn’t likely to break any longevity record.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2022/03/22/delivering-canadians-now">confidence-and-supply agreement</a> negotiated earlier this year between the Liberals and NDP was aimed at ensuring the Liberal minority governs to 2025. But the agreement isn’t binding, and it will probably falter sooner rather than later. Both parties will want their independence or else <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/ndp-liberals-upbeat-about-new-deal-as-some-warn-of-pitfalls-for-the-junior-partner-1.5830686">Poilievre will depict them as interchangeable</a>. </p>
<p>The Conservatives will need a year to develop a new policy platform and adjust to their new leader. The result will likely be a more centrist party than the one that elected Poilievre. That’s because the party has to get votes from those who rejected it in 2021 if it hopes to form the next government. </p>
<h2>Avoiding austerity measures</h2>
<p>The new Conservative platform will likely entail a smaller, and smarter, hand for the state, but probably won’t contain slash-and-burn proposals. No party in recent federal elections has advocated austerity measures.</p>
<p>Similarly, provincial election campaigns, such as <a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-election-campaign-approaches-after-tories-table-budget-as-platform-1.5881459">in Ontario earlier this year</a> and <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-quebec-parties-throw-fiscal-caution-to-the-wind/">currently in Québec</a>, show that parties of all stripes are unwilling to run on a platform that explicitly reduces benefits, or even makes realistic proposals for a balanced budget in the short term. </p>
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<img alt="A man in a blue shirt high-fives another man holding a child." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486816/original/file-20220927-18-qykuq0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486816/original/file-20220927-18-qykuq0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486816/original/file-20220927-18-qykuq0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486816/original/file-20220927-18-qykuq0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486816/original/file-20220927-18-qykuq0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486816/original/file-20220927-18-qykuq0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486816/original/file-20220927-18-qykuq0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">François Legault, head of the Coalition Avenir Québec, greets supporters after casting his ballot in L'Assomption, Que. ahead of the provincial election on Oct. 3.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes</span></span>
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<p>Trudeau’s Liberals will probably shift to the right over the next year, seeking to occupy as much of the political spectrum as possible by squeezing the NDP on the left and the Conservatives on the right. The party will work hard to demonstrate to voters that it is a sound steward of economic prosperity.</p>
<p>Both parties will prioritize urban voters in Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver. Election after election has shown that as long as most ridings in these cities vote Liberal, the party cannot be denied power, either as a majority or minority. </p>
<p>An early move by Conservatives to shore up support in voter-rich Ontario is the hiring of the executive director of Ontario’s Progressive Conservative party, Mike Crase, as the new <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2022/09/16/poilievre-turns-to-ontario-pc-to-run-federal-conservatives.html">executive director of the federal Conservatives</a>.</p>
<h2>Weak, rudderless?</h2>
<p>Once a year is up, the current minority government may totter on its last legs. That’s because if the Liberals shift to the right, the NDP will have less reason to support the minority government. And Trudeau will likely be loath to be portrayed by Poilievre as being in bed with the NDP. It will be easy for the Conservatives to paint Trudeau as weak, rudderless and only in power due to the NDP. </p>
<p>Once 2023 rolls around, Trudeau will probably be eager to battle the still inexperienced Poilievre. At the same time, the new leader of the opposition will likely savour the opportunity to take on a prime minister seeking a fourth mandate. </p>
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<img alt="Two men, one in blue boxing gear and the other in red, fight in a boxing ring." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486813/original/file-20220927-26-bc6a7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486813/original/file-20220927-26-bc6a7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486813/original/file-20220927-26-bc6a7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486813/original/file-20220927-26-bc6a7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486813/original/file-20220927-26-bc6a7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486813/original/file-20220927-26-bc6a7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486813/original/file-20220927-26-bc6a7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Conservative Sen. Patrick Brazeau and Justin Trudeau, then Liberal leader, fight in a charity boxing match in March 2012 in Ottawa. Trudeau stopped Brazeau in the third round.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Fred Chartrand</span></span>
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<p>Neither will have any reason to prefer waiting another two years before seeking a mandate from voters. Like boxers who spar as long as they can, they will be <a href="https://www.tvo.org/article/the-faceoff-between-poilievre-and-trudeau-will-be-one-for-the-history-books">keen to strike a knockout punch as soon as the opportunity arises</a>.</p>
<p>The Conservatives and the Liberals will both paint the election as a referendum between stark opposites, even if their election platforms probably won’t be very dissimilar. </p>
<p>With higher interest rates <a href="https://angusreid.org/inflation-bank-of-canada-grocery-prices/">and soaring inflation</a>, all parties will position themselves as guardians of the well-being of the middle class and working Canadians. It is via this guardianship that the parties will seek to differentiate themselves and appeal to specific groups of voters.</p>
<p>In calling another election the Liberals, as the incumbents, would control the exact timing. Of the past five elections, four were held in September or October. Elections during these months permit campaigning during pleasant late summer and early fall weather and don’t interfere with the summer plans of voters. Late spring elections are also common for the same reasons. </p>
<h2>The unknowns</h2>
<p>Of course, in political life there’s always uncertainty. Like his father did, Trudeau might go for <a href="https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/trudeaus-third-walk-in-the-snow">a walk in the snow</a> this winter and conclude that 15 years as MP, 10 years as Liberal leader and nearly eight as prime minister is enough. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486825/original/file-20220927-26-2rcud8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A blonde woman is seen in partial profile as she speaks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486825/original/file-20220927-26-2rcud8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486825/original/file-20220927-26-2rcud8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486825/original/file-20220927-26-2rcud8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486825/original/file-20220927-26-2rcud8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486825/original/file-20220927-26-2rcud8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486825/original/file-20220927-26-2rcud8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486825/original/file-20220927-26-2rcud8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly addresses the United Nations General Assembly in New York.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Julia Nikhinson)</span></span>
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<p>If so, Trudeau might delay the next election as long as possible to provide time for a successor, such as Chrystia Freeland or Mélanie Joly, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/26/melanie-joly-justin-trudeau-canada-00058748">to assume the party’s leadership</a>. </p>
<p>Or a scandal might threaten one of the party leaders. </p>
<p>Less likely, but not entirely improbable, is a splintering of the Conservative party along ideological lines. A natural disaster or international events could also change the calculus and delay the next election.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, an election in the fall of 2023 or spring of 2024 is probably what Canadians can expect — or dread.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190640/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Klassen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Canadians went to the polls twice in two years, in 2019 and 2021. Here’s why yet another federal election likely looms in the fall of 2023 or the spring of 2024.Thomas Klassen, Professor, School of Public Policy and Administration, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1896132022-09-01T17:01:11Z2022-09-01T17:01:11ZWhy does Pierre Poilievre appeal to young Canadians? It’s all about economics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482307/original/file-20220901-15-gxmb4s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6500%2C4437&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Federal Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre poses for photographs with supporters at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver in April 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Pierre Poilievre’s <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2022/08/27/pierre-poilievre-is-poised-to-become-the-next-conservative-leader-and-young-voters-are-suddenly-interested-in-his-party.html">appeal to young voters</a>, something of a novelty for Canadian Conservative politicians, raises questions about both his popularity and the ability of the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) to capitalize on the trend over the long term. </p>
<p>Why has Poilievre, unlike his recent predecessors, been successful at gaining support among younger voters, and what impact could this have on the CPC’s electoral coalition?</p>
<p>Conventional political wisdom holds that age has a lot to do with political ideology — while young adults are likely to be liberal, many will become increasingly conservative as they age. In some ways, this is an exaggerated cliché. </p>
<p>Direct measurements of political attitudes <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/706889">more often find that a person’s propensity to be either conservative or liberal is stable over time</a>, regardless of age. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, this conventional wisdom was evident when it came to voting behaviour in Canada. From 2015 to 2019, the Conservative Party of Canada was the most popular choice <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/338canada-the-liberals-are-winning-over-older-normally-conservative-voters/">for Canadian voters over 55</a>, and the Conservatives fell behind the Liberals and the NDP among voters under the age of 34.</p>
<p>Historically, this has hurt the Conservatives while also helping progressive or left-leaning candidates. An influx of support from young voters, for example, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-youth-turnout-2015-1.3636290">played a decisive role in Justin Trudeau’s electoral victory in 2015</a>. </p>
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<img alt="A man in a burgundy T-shirt talks to three young people, a boxing ring behind him and a trainer beside him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau speaks with youths as a boxing trainer looks on during a campaign stop in Montréal in September 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Trudeau is losing young voters</h2>
<p>But the voting behaviour of young voters is highly volatile when it comes to both turnout and party preference. Since 2015, <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2021/as-millennials-fall-out-of-love-with-trudeau-liberals-need-to-stop-the-bleed-towards-the-ndp">Trudeau’s Liberals have lost most of their support among young voters</a> as younger Canadians either supported other parties, became undecided or stopped voting entirely.</p>
<p>Currently, most voters under 34 are, as with most other Canadians, likely to <a href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/trudeau-is-shedding-support-among-dislocated-younger-voters-1.1767474">express a lack of confidence in the performance of Trudeau as prime minister</a>. </p>
<p>Most youth support between 2015 and 2021 has instead gone to the NDP and its leader, Jagmeet Singh. <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-jagmeet-singh-wants-to-attract-more-young-voters-and-hes-using-tiktok/">By deliberately targeting the demographic</a> through its policy and social media campaigns, <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/338canada-who-leads-among-young-voters-the-ndp/">the party was the clear favourite of young voters in the 2019 and 2021 elections</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="A man in a pink turban sits among a row of young people listening to someone speak off-camera." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh listens to youth speak about their experiences during a campaign stop in Toronto in September 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Recently, however, much of this youth support for the Liberals and NDP now appears to be shifting again. For the first time since the 1980s, recent polls show that a <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/first-reading-young-people-seem-to-be-leaning-tory-possibly-for-the-first-time-ever">plurality, although not a majority, of young voters now support the Conservative Party</a>. </p>
<p>This has been mostly attributed to Poilievre who, more than his rivals for the party leadership, has generated much of this enthusiasm.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1563594383651287041"}"></div></p>
<h2>Poilievre’s electoral edge?</h2>
<p>It’s possible these polls could shift before the next federal election, likely in 2025. But they nonetheless raise the possibility of a novel electoral advantage that a Poilievre-led Conservative party could bring to the next several federal votes. </p>
<p>Poilievre’s growing popularity among young voters is likely due to how he’s seized upon an opening by providing coherent messaging that addresses the general state of dissatisfaction and the economic anxieties that are weighing on young Canadians. </p>
<p>That includes continuing frustrations about the <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/half-of-canadians-under-30-have-given-up-on-owning-a-single-family-home-survey-1.5699344">inaccessibility of home ownership</a>, <a href="https://www.thestar.com/business/2022/08/06/paycheque-to-paycheque-inflation-is-hitting-low-income-canadians-hard.html">income instability and inflation</a>. </p>
<p>The continuing detrimental economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2021/11/30/young-adults-hit-hard-by-pandemics-economic-impact-survey-suggests.html">have also affected this demographic the most</a>, contributing to perceptions of a <a href="https://thehub.ca/2021-05-21/ben-woodfinden-homeowners-will-soon-be-our-new-aristocracy/">growing divide</a> between older, economically established generations and younger adults. </p>
<p>This has also created a popular feeling among many young voters that the Trudeau government needs to be replaced. </p>
<p>In addition to a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-election-missteps-factbox-idUSKBN1W422D">series of missteps and scandals</a> that have eroded Trudeau’s personal popularity, the government is also perceived as being unable to deal with these growing economic concerns.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a yellow turban shakes hands with another man. Both are smiling." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NDP leader Jagmeet Singh meets with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Parliament Hill in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Because <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-ndp-accord-confidence-supply-agreement-1.6397985">the NDP entered into an agreement with the Liberals</a> allowing them to deliver on beneficial policies like dental-care coverage, the party is now limited in its ability to craft and convey a coherent alternative to the Liberal government. </p>
<p>This is even though New Democrats have, along with Poilievre, been engaging in populist attacks about economic elites for not <a href="https://www.ndp.ca/news/ndp-calls-action-make-rich-and-powerful-pay-their-fair-share">“paying their fair share.”</a> The NDP’s ongoing support for the Liberals has come at the cost of credibly tapping into a growing anti-Liberal sentiment by compromising their position as a principled adversary — giving Poilievre yet another opening to electoral success.</p>
<p>In contrast, Poilievre offers a coherent, semi-populist appeal that prioritizes these problems, provides a common cause or enemy and proposes solutions within Conservative policies.</p>
<h2>Attacking the elites</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.pierre4pm.ca/fire_the_gatekeepers">Poilievre has identified a set of “gatekeepers”</a> that include all-powerful interests and established voices in Canadian public life as the source of these problems, including progressive urbanites, government bureaucrats and financial elites. In working to maintain their privilege, says Poilievre, these gatekeepers have compromised the opportunities available to ordinary Canadians. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1529920481423413253"}"></div></p>
<p>Recalibrating these existing institutions to align with a renewed desire for <a href="https://www.pierre4pm.ca/poilievre_would_protect_free_speech_from_gatekeepers">“freedom” is presented as the solution</a>, allowing Poilievre to repackage and legitimize conventional conservative emphases on free markets, deregulation and small government. </p>
<p>His platform’s appeal lies in the fact that it’s simultaneously coherent enough to appeal to Conservative partisans and, at the same time, vague enough to allow young voters to apply their own dissatisfaction or economic anxiety through this gatekeeper/freedom narrative.</p>
<p>Poilievre’s momentum among younger people, if maintained, could bring the CPC a notable electoral advantage in the next election. But given the fact it’s derived from an anti-Liberal sentiment, it’s difficult to determine if it will have a long-term impact. </p>
<p>The party may struggle to retain young voters in the years ahead, likely because younger Canadians care about issues that the Conservatives perform poorly on, like <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2022/05/19/youth-focused-on-affordability-climate-in-this-election-future-majority.html">climate change and social equity</a>. </p>
<p>But it’s also possible a much deeper and structural change among younger voters is afoot that is making them more conservative, both economically and socially.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-041719-102503">As scholars of populism have argued</a>, the significant economic, social, demographic and technological changes of the last decade have produced a state of displacement and uncertainty that’s pushing emerging adults into conservative politics. If so, it’s good news for Poilievre.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189613/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sam Routley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Pierre Poilievre’s momentum among young Canadians, if maintained, could bring the Conservative Party of Canada a notable electoral advantage in the next election.Sam Routley, PhD Student, Political Science, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1663122021-08-18T19:43:53Z2021-08-18T19:43:53ZRhetoric Check: Historically, how important is the 2021 Canadian election?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416856/original/file-20210818-15-117ab3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=40%2C13%2C4441%2C2278&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Justin Trudeau boards his campaign plane in Toronto on Aug. 17. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><strong>The claim</strong>: Justin Trudeau says that the 2021 Canadian federal election <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-otoole-singh-federal-election-pandemic-1.6141903">might be the most important election since 1945</a>. </p>
<p><strong>The verdict:</strong> This election is important for Trudeau’s political legacy.</p>
<p>All political leaders, particularly heads of government, seem to have a habit of proclaiming that any election they are contesting is the most important in recent memory. <a href="https://theconversation.com/canadian-election-2021-voters-head-to-the-polls-with-the-pandemic-climate-change-top-of-mind-166125">Moments after the governor general agreed with his request to dissolve Parliament</a>, Trudeau went even further, claiming that the 2021 election is “<a href="https://www.nanaimobulletin.com/news/trudeau-says-canadians-deserve-a-say-at-pivotal-moment-triggers-sept-20-election/">maybe the most important since 1945 and certainly in our lifetimes</a>.” Is he right?</p>
<p>The 2021 election is certainly important for Trudeau’s political career. Going to the polls two years earlier than the fixed-date election law required — and in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic — Trudeau is gambling that voters will give his Liberal party a majority government. Being returned with another minority would be interpreted as a failure, and could stir disgruntlement in the ranks.</p>
<h2>Change in leadership?</h2>
<p>Trudeau has been prime minister for nearly six years. If he is returned with another minority, his time in office will be comparable to notable Canadian prime ministers like Robert Borden, Louis St. Laurent and Brian Mulroney. However, frustrated Liberals might agitate for a change of leadership, and his grip on power will be constrained by Parliament. </p>
<p>If he wins a majority, he’ll serve at least as long as Stephen Harper and Jean Chrétien. He would oversee a potentially transformative period in government, and would increase his chances of leading the Liberals in future elections. </p>
<p>Choosing <a href="https://dbpedia.org/page/1945_Canadian_federal_election">the 1945 election</a> as a comparison to 2021 is curious. In 1945, <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/william-lyon-mackenzie-king">Prime Minister Mackenzie King</a> called for a stable Liberal majority government. Yet voters were nonplussed, reducing the Liberals to a minority; King even lost his own Saskatchewan seat. The Trudeau Liberals probably picked the 1945 campaign as a benchmark because it fits their narrative of rebuilding after a major global crisis.</p>
<p>Since 1945, there have been a smattering of elections of enormous consequence to public policy in Canada. <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00344896308656441">The elections of 1963</a> <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/archives/entry/predicting-the-federal-election-of-1965">and 1965</a>, which saw <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/lester-bowles-pearson">Lester B. Pearson</a> preside over Liberal minority governments, marked a period of transformative change. </p>
<p><a href="https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0140673618301818">Universal health care</a>, the <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/canada-pension-plan">Canada Pension Plan</a>, <a href="https://www.k12academics.com/Education%20Worldwide/Education%20in%20Canada/Student%20Loans%20in%20Canada/history-student-loans-canada">student loans</a> and the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/canadian-heritage/services/flag-canada-history.html">Canadian flag</a> were ushered in. Minority government meant all of this was a result of bargaining with opposition parties. </p>
<p>The 1980 election was also pivotal, because if Pierre Trudeau hadn’t formed a government again after the Joe Clark interlude, the Canadian constitution <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/patriation-of-the-constitution">would not have been patriated in 1982</a> and we would not have a Charter of Rights and Freedoms. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0261379489900334?via%3Dihub">The 1988 free-trade election stands out</a> for its singular-issue focus. That contest was dominated by whether Canada should enter into a trade agreement with the United States that was the precursor to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="John Turner and Brian Mulroney point fingers at one another during a debate." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416824/original/file-20210818-25-b7cxxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416824/original/file-20210818-25-b7cxxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416824/original/file-20210818-25-b7cxxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416824/original/file-20210818-25-b7cxxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416824/original/file-20210818-25-b7cxxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416824/original/file-20210818-25-b7cxxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416824/original/file-20210818-25-b7cxxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Liberal leader John Turner and Conservative leader Brian Mulroney square off during a debate in the 1988 federal election campaign that was dominated by a potential free-trade deal with the United States.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Fred Chartrand</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Election stunners</h2>
<p>There are also times that election results upend norms of party competition. <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/elections-of-1957-and-1958-feature">The 1957 election was a stunner</a>. The Progressive Conservatives led by John Diefenbaker knocked the Liberals out of office after 22 consecutive years, and the following year won one of the biggest landslides in Canadian history. </p>
<p>Political scientists routinely refer to the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0261379494900345?via%3Dihub">1993 election as an earthquake</a> because <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/archives/entry/1993-tories-trampled-in-liberal-landslide">two established national parties were displaced in favour of two regional parties</a>. The federal party system was shattered with the ascent of the Bloc Québecois to become the official opposition, closely followed by the popularity of the Reform Party in Western Canada, and combined with the thumping of the PCs and the New Democrats.</p>
<p>To some extent, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Canadian-Federal-Election-of-2008">the 2008 election</a> is a good comparison with the 2021 one. Stephen Harper ignored the fixed-date election by holding a snap election in the hope of obtaining a majority. <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/recession-of-200809-in-canada#:%7E:text=Although%20the%20effects%20on%20Canada,responses%20by%20Canadian%20policy%2Dmakers.">That campaign occurred in the midst of the global economic crisis</a> that saw housing prices collapse, the stock market plunge and American financial institutions teeter on bankruptcy. </p>
<p>Six weeks after being returned with a larger minority government, the Conservative government <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/inside-a-crisis-that-shook-the-nation/">nearly fell over a fiscal update that triggered a coalition crisis</a>, a political reckoning that set in motion massive government spending to stimulate the economy.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Stephen Harper stands at a podium with Canadian flags behind him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416832/original/file-20210818-21-1y1prph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416832/original/file-20210818-21-1y1prph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416832/original/file-20210818-21-1y1prph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416832/original/file-20210818-21-1y1prph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416832/original/file-20210818-21-1y1prph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416832/original/file-20210818-21-1y1prph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416832/original/file-20210818-21-1y1prph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Stephen Harper takes questions during a media availability in Calgary in October 2008 after winning a minority in the federal election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2019 election: Important in hindsight</h2>
<p>Yet the financial crisis did not affect all segments of society, emphasizing the fact that nothing has been seen on the scale of the pandemic since the Second World War. </p>
<p>As it turns out, the 2019 election was crucial.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/justin-trudeaus-political-setback-a-surprise-to-the-world-but-not-to-canada-125422">Justin Trudeau's political setback: A surprise to the world, but not to Canada</a>
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<p>Although COVID-19 had not yet emerged, the instalment of a Liberal minority government led to massive public policy initiatives in response to the pandemic, and put the prime minister at centre stage as the government’s main spokesperson during a formidable public crisis that has affected all Canadians.</p>
<p>It will take years before we can assess the validity of Trudeau’s rhetoric about the importance of the 2021 election. Nobody has a crystal ball to foresee what the government will do in the coming years. But one thing seems certain: this election is vitally important to Trudeau’s political legacy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166312/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex Marland is a member of the board of directors of the Institute for Research on Public Policy.</span></em></p>Is Justin Trudeau correct about the importance of this election? Nobody has a crystal ball to foresee what the government will do in the future. But it’s certainly important to Trudeau’s legacy.Alex Marland, Professor, Political Science, Memorial University of NewfoundlandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.