tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/carbon-neutrality-22072/articlesCarbon neutrality – The Conversation2023-12-20T03:17:58Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2195922023-12-20T03:17:58Z2023-12-20T03:17:58ZCarbon in, carbon out: Australia’s ‘carbon budget’ assessment reveals astonishing boom and bust cycles<p>If you really want to know how much Australia contributes to the amount of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere, you have to study all the “sources” and “sinks”. </p>
<p>Sources release CO₂ into the atmosphere, while sinks take it out. There are sources from human activities, such as burning fossil fuels, and there are natural sinks such as plants absorbing CO₂. You can tally it all up on a balance sheet to find the net result. Are we adding to CO₂ levels in the atmosphere, overall? And if so, by how much? </p>
<p>It’s an enormous undertaking, but not impossible. We have just published the <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GB007845">most comprehensive assessment</a> of Australian CO₂ sources and sinks. It covers the decade from 2010 to 2019, and it reveals some surprising features.</p>
<p>Astonishingly, we found the net annual carbon balance of the entire continent switches from year to year. Australia can be a large net source of CO₂ one year and a large net CO₂ sink the next, in response to our increasingly variable climate. That makes it harder to detect long-term trends and understand whether our natural carbon sinks are growing or decreasing. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fossil-co-emissions-hit-record-high-yet-again-in-2023-216436">Fossil CO₂ emissions hit record high yet again in 2023</a>
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<h2>What is the contemporary carbon budget?</h2>
<p>Our research reveals what we call the “contemporary carbon budget” for Australia. </p>
<p>This budget is different from the “<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01848-5">remaining carbon budget</a>”, which refers to the CO₂ that can still be emitted before we exceed a certain level of warming.</p>
<p>We constructed the contemporary budget using a wide variety of data and modelling approaches. We needed to estimate the carbon “fluxes” (sources and sinks) of land-based ecosystems, freshwater bodies, and of human activities such as the combustion of fossil fuels and changes in land clearing and revegetation.</p>
<p>We also used global assessments, <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/national-greenhouse-gas-inventory-quarterly-updates">Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory</a>, and <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au">trade statistics</a>. And we used atmospheric and satellite CO₂ information to help determine the Australian carbon balance, as well as other satellite-based data to estimate Australia’s fire emissions.</p>
<p>We developed this carbon budget with the best available data and scientific tools. However, large uncertainties such as data gaps and model limitations remain for some of the estimates. We report all uncertainties in the <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GB007845">research paper</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567619/original/file-20240102-25-o9xvng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A colourful infographic explaining Australia's Carbon Budget 2010-2019" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567619/original/file-20240102-25-o9xvng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567619/original/file-20240102-25-o9xvng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567619/original/file-20240102-25-o9xvng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567619/original/file-20240102-25-o9xvng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567619/original/file-20240102-25-o9xvng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567619/original/file-20240102-25-o9xvng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567619/original/file-20240102-25-o9xvng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Australia’s Carbon Budget 2010-2019. A product of the National Environmental Science Program - Climate Systems Hub; and a contribution to the Global Carbon Project - Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes-2.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: NESP-2</span></span>
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<h2>Carbon in, carbon out</h2>
<p>The biggest CO₂ source from Australia’s human activities is fossil fuels, with an average of 403 million tonnes of CO₂ for the decade 2010-19. That can be broken down into coal (44%), oil (34%), gas (18%), gas flaring (3%) and cement (1%).</p>
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<p>Emissions from wildfires (natural) and prescribed burning (human-caused) were 568 million tonnes of CO₂ a year which, unlike fossil fuels, are largely offset by subsequent vegetation regrowth. This led to a net CO₂ accumulation in the atmosphere of 36 million tonnes a year. CO₂ emissions from the Black Summer fires in 2019 were exceptionally high at 951 million tonnes, much of which has already returned to vegetation after three years of above-average rainfall.</p>
<p>Rivers, lakes and reservoirs – both natural and human-made – are also sources of CO₂, contributing 82 million tonnes.</p>
<p>Natural forests, savannas and the large expanses of rangelands all contributed to removing vast amounts of CO₂ from the atmosphere at a rate of more than 388 million tonnes a year. </p>
<p>Coastal ecosystems “blue carbon” such as mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses soaked up 61 million tonnes of CO₂ a year, further adding to Australia’s CO₂ sinks. However, estuaries, including tidal systems, deltas and lagoons, released 27 million tonnes of CO₂ into the atmosphere. </p>
<p>The oceans surrounding Australia are also strong CO₂ sinks, removing about 183 million tonnes of CO₂ a year. This highlights the important role of the oceans, in addition to the land sink, in slowing the buildup of atmospheric CO₂ due to human emissions.</p>
<h2>Exported carbon</h2>
<p>Every year, about 1 billion tonnes of CO₂ are exported in the form of fossil fuels, primarily coal and natural gas.</p>
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<p>A further 22 million tonnes of embedded CO₂ are exported every year in products such as wheat, wood pellets and livestock. </p>
<p>When these exported fossil fuels and products are consumed overseas, they release their carbon content into the atmosphere as CO₂.</p>
<p>However, the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/what-is-the-united-nations-framework-convention-on-climate-change">UN Framework Convention on Climate Change</a> and rules supporting the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a> only require nations to report emissions released from their own territory. Emissions from exports are counted by the countries where the fossil fuels and products are eventually consumed.</p>
<h2>The flip-flop carbon dynamics</h2>
<p>We have long known about the “boom and bust” dynamics of Australia’s vegetation growth as it responds to periods of above-average rainfall and drought.</p>
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<img alt="An animated map of Australia with blue, red and yellow colouring to show levels of carbon released by the ecosystem." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565724/original/file-20231214-15-yflna0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565724/original/file-20231214-15-yflna0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565724/original/file-20231214-15-yflna0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565724/original/file-20231214-15-yflna0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565724/original/file-20231214-15-yflna0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565724/original/file-20231214-15-yflna0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565724/original/file-20231214-15-yflna0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Monthly gross primary production of carbon, since January 2015. The Conversation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GB007845">Data supplied by author</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>But we never imagined the entire nation could flip-flop so quickly from being a very strong and globally significant CO₂ sink, as <a href="https://theconversation.com/record-rains-made-australia-a-giant-green-global-carbon-sink-26646">in the La Niña of 2010-11</a>, to being a major source of CO₂. But that’s precisely what happened as drought and fire changed the carbon accounts of Australia, during the southeast drought of 2018-19 and the following Black Summer fires in 2019.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-staggering-1-8-million-hectares-burned-in-high-severity-fires-during-australias-black-summer-157883">A staggering 1.8 million hectares burned in 'high-severity' fires during Australia's Black Summer</a>
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<h2>What this tells us about the path to net zero</h2>
<p>When we put all of the land-based CO₂ sources and sinks together, overall Australia was a net source to the atmosphere of 200 million tonnes of CO₂ a year during 2010-19. This drops to 140 million tonnes of CO₂ a year if we count the sinks from coastal ecosystems.</p>
<p>This means CO₂ sinks are partially offsetting fossil fuel emissions. This is something we have also estimated at the global scale, where <a href="https://globalcarbonbudget.org/carbonbudget2023/">about one-third</a> of global fossil fuel emissions are removed by terrestrial land-based CO₂ sinks.</p>
<p>While this highlights the important role natural CO₂ sinks play in slowing climate change, it does not imply we have less work to do to reach the net zero emissions target.</p>
<p>That is because natural CO₂ sinks <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-resolving-how-land-emissions-are-counted-is-critical-for-tracking-climate-progress/">are already accounted</a> for in estimates of the remaining carbon budgets and decarbonisation pathways to stabilise the climate. Accordingly, the Paris Agreement calls for achieving a balance between anthropogenic emissions and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases, the so-called net zero target.</p>
<p>The large year-to-year variability of Australia’s non-anthropogenic carbon dynamics also underscores the need for a comprehensive and long-term monitoring and modelling observatory system to track the evolution of sources and sinks. We need high quality data supplementing the National Greenhouse Accounts to support decisions around how to use Australia’s natural assets to mitigate climate change.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/carbon-removal-is-needed-to-achieve-net-zero-but-has-its-own-climate-risks-217355">Carbon removal is needed to achieve net zero but has its own climate risks</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219592/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yohanna Villalobos receives funding from the Australian National Environmental Science Program (NESP) and CSIRO Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Smith receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Swedish Research Council, European Union and R&D funding programs of the New South Wales Government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pep Canadell receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program - Climate Systems Hub.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Briggs receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program - Climate Systems Hub and is a member of the ACT Greens.</span></em></p>The most comprehensive Australian carbon budget assessment completed to date shows the nation flip-flops from source to sink of carbon emissions, depending on the prevailing conditions.Yohanna Villalobos, Postdoctoral research fellow, Lund UniversityBenjamin Smith, Director of Research, Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney UniversityPep Canadell, Chief Research Scientist, CSIRO Environment; Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIROPeter Briggs, Scientific Programmer and Data Analyst, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2108802023-09-29T01:25:27Z2023-09-29T01:25:27ZHere’s how to fix Australia’s approach to soil carbon credits so they really count towards our climate goals<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550802/original/file-20230928-21-n9ydfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=199%2C0%2C9290%2C6331&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/female-farmer-hold-soil-hands-monitoring-2346686237">William Edge, Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s plan to achieve <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction/net-zero">net zero</a> greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 relies heavily on carbon credits. </p>
<p>These <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/About-the-Emissions-Reduction-Fund">credits are awarded to projects</a> that avoid the release of greenhouse gases or remove and “sequester” (store) carbon so it’s no longer warming the atmosphere. </p>
<p>Farmers can be awarded credits for <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/Choosing-a-project-type/Opportunities-for-the-land-sector/Agricultural-methods/estimating-soil-organic-carbon-sequestration-using-measurement-and-models-method">increasing soil carbon content</a>. The federal government or companies can then purchase these credits to offset their carbon emissions. </p>
<p>These credits must represent genuine carbon sequestration if they are to mitigate climate change. </p>
<p>As Australian agricultural and soil scientists, we have serious concerns about the way credits are awarded for soil carbon sequestration under the <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/OSR/ANREU/types-of-emissions-units/australian-carbon-credit-units">Australian carbon credit unit scheme</a>. There are four main issues with the method that must be addressed as a matter of urgency.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Soil organic carbon is the treasure beneath our feet (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations)</span></figcaption>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-scheme-used-by-australian-farmers-reveals-the-dangers-of-trading-soil-carbon-to-tackle-climate-change-161358">US scheme used by Australian farmers reveals the dangers of trading soil carbon to tackle climate change</a>
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<h2>Understanding the carbon cycle</h2>
<p>Much like water, carbon cycles through the environment, moving between plants, the earth and the atmosphere. </p>
<p>Plants take in carbon dioxide from the atmosphere as they grow. The carbon is stored in the plant tissue. When plants die, or drop leaves, this carbon-rich organic matter enters the soil. Then it decomposes, releasing carbon dioxide back into the atmosphere. </p>
<p>When carbon inputs from plants exceed losses from the decomposition of organic matter, the amount of soil carbon increases. That means soil organic carbon is more likely to increase during good seasons when there’s plenty of rainfall available to support plant growth – such as during the recent three-year period of consecutive La Niña events.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550131/original/file-20230925-15-sf72i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphic illustrating how carbon cycles through agricultural systems" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550131/original/file-20230925-15-sf72i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550131/original/file-20230925-15-sf72i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=309&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550131/original/file-20230925-15-sf72i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=309&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550131/original/file-20230925-15-sf72i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=309&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550131/original/file-20230925-15-sf72i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550131/original/file-20230925-15-sf72i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550131/original/file-20230925-15-sf72i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The carbon cycle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Eckard, University of Melbourne</span></span>
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<h2>Increases need to be due to management</h2>
<p>The recent <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-06-24/aus-farmers-to-earn-money-from-soil-carbon-under-new-methods/102213244">tranche</a> of credits awarded to soil carbon projects raises similar concerns to those that have been raised by experts about <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-central-climate-policy-pays-people-to-grow-trees-that-already-existed-taxpayers-and-the-environment-deserve-better-186900">credits awarded to trees</a>. Namely, carbon credits are being awarded for changes associated with seasonal conditions (changes that would have happened anyway) rather than human actions.</p>
<p>The current soil carbon method awards credits when an increase in soil organic carbon is detected between two points in time. This is problematic because it can award credits to projects that report increases during relatively wet periods. </p>
<p>This is the case for <a href="https://carbonlink.com.au/wp-content/uploads/CarbonLink-ACCUs-Flow-Media-Release-June-2023-1.pdf">projects sampled in 2021</a>, directly after a period where conditions were unusually favourable for plant growth. That means credits were awarded for sequestration that had more to do with the weather than good management. </p>
<p>Where crediting occurs due to seasonal conditions, the scheme is not providing any true (<a href="https://law.anu.edu.au/sites/all/files/what_the_beare_and_chambers_report_really_found_and_a_critique_of_its_method_16_march_2022.pdf">additional</a>) climate change mitigation. </p>
<h2>Soil carbon can be lost</h2>
<p>Where soil carbon losses are greater than inputs, soil carbon stocks decline and sequestered carbon is released back to the atmosphere. The <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479720301286">emissions can be rapid</a> and considerable. </p>
<p>Furthermore, modelling indicates it’s likely <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2018.09.041">soil carbon could be lost</a> under the warmer and drier conditions of future climates. </p>
<p>Where a project loses soil carbon, the legislation does not require excess credits to be returned. Rather, a scheme-wide <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/Choosing-a-project-type/Opportunities-for-the-land-sector/Risk-of-reversal-buffer">buffer</a> generated from all sequestration projects covers such losses. </p>
<p>This approach is inequitable because all projects share the same burden of maintaining the buffer, irrespective of the risk of reversal of individual projects. </p>
<h2>Overinflated sequestration rates</h2>
<p>Based on a <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/eap.1473?__cf_chl_tk=1zpwtYjrpjjoZAaRpgcOb5o7R5c_fLaqDx0tadA0kWA-1693540306-0-gaNycGzND1A">comprehensive global analysis</a>, the <a href="https://carbonlink.com.au/wp-content/uploads/CarbonLink-ACCUs-Flow-Media-Release-June-2023-1.pdf">number of carbon credits generated</a> by some Australian projects appears unrealistically high. The most likely reason for these large values is high rainfall, but the way the method works makes it impossible to know for sure because the impacts of management are not identified.</p>
<p>This is not the first time a soil carbon project has made <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-scheme-used-by-australian-farmers-reveals-the-dangers-of-trading-soil-carbon-to-tackle-climate-change-161358">unrealistic claims</a>. </p>
<p>In addition, <a href="https://carbonlink.com.au/wp-content/uploads/CarbonLink-ACCUs-Flow-Media-Release-June-2023-1.pdf">one project saw 44%</a> of the increase in soil carbon at depths below 30cm. This is an issue because published studies show soil carbon changes in deeper soil are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167880923002785">relatively small</a> and happen slowly. We are concerned the reported changes may have more to do with the way they were calculated. </p>
<p>Currently, data used to calculate credits are not released by the scheme regulator so cannot be scientifically verified. The release of data under strict non-disclosure arrangements would allow scientists to assess the implementation of the method. This would provide confidence credits generated represent real climate change mitigation. </p>
<p>Increased transparency was a <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/independent-review-accu-exec-summary.pdf">key recommendation</a> of the <a href="https://oia.pmc.gov.au/published-impact-analyses-and-reports/chubb-review-australian-carbon-credit-units">Chubb Review</a> of Australian Carbon Credit Units in 2022. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/chubb-review-of-australias-carbon-credit-scheme-falls-short-and-problems-will-continue-to-fester-197401">Chubb review of Australia's carbon credit scheme falls short – and problems will continue to fester</a>
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<h2>Contributing to our emissions targets?</h2>
<p>Australia’s emissions are reported annually to the United Nations in the national <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/national-inventory-reports">greenhouse gas inventory</a>. These annual inventories show progress towards our declared emissions reduction targets. </p>
<p>The current inventory method used to account for changes in soil carbon uses coarse regional-level statistics. Changes to practices at farm level, such as grazing management, are not detected and will not be reflected in our national greenhouse gas accounts. Further, Australia reports changes in soil carbon for the top 30cm of the soil only whereas carbon credits are also awarded for changes that occur deeper in the soil. </p>
<p>This means some soil carbon credits the Australian government purchases do not count toward our emissions targets. It calls into question the effectiveness of using taxpayer funds to purchase soil carbon credits as a policy tool.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-relies-on-controversial-offsets-to-meet-climate-change-targets-we-might-not-get-away-with-it-in-egypt-193460">Australia relies on controversial offsets to meet climate change targets. We might not get away with it in Egypt</a>
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<h2>Getting it right</h2>
<p>To address the issues we have identified, the measurement-based soil carbon <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/Choosing-a-project-type/Opportunities-for-the-land-sector/Agricultural-methods/estimating-soil-organic-carbon-sequestration-using-measurement-and-models-method">method</a> needs to be revised to only credit increases due to management. For instance, <a href="https://verra.org/methodologies/vm0042-methodology-for-improved-agricultural-land-management-v2-0/">the Verra scheme</a> in the international voluntary carbon market uses a method that minimises crediting for increases associated with rainfall. </p>
<p>To support revision of Australia’s scheme, scientists should be granted access to project data. Data could to be used to improve models in order to distinguish between climate and management effects. This would ensure the method is fit for purpose. </p>
<p>There also needs to be greater focus on monitoring changes in soil carbon. For a start, Australia’s <a href="https://www.tern.org.au/">Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network</a> should be extended to include agricultural land. This would provide data to increase transparency, independence and rigour of soil carbon estimates. </p>
<p>The revisions we propose would help ensure investment in carbon credits contributes to our national emissions reduction targets and addresses the urgent challenge of climate change.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-tonne-of-fossil-carbon-isnt-the-same-as-a-tonne-of-new-trees-why-offsets-cant-save-us-200901">A tonne of fossil carbon isn't the same as a tonne of new trees: why offsets can't save us</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210880/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aaron Simmons is a Senior Research Scientist with the NSW Department of Primary Industries. Aaron has received funding from the Commonwealth and NSW governments for soil carbon research and policy development. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Annette Cowie is a Senior Principal Research Scientist in the Climate Branch at the NSW Department of Primary Industries, and Adjunct Professor in the School of Environmental and Rural Science at the University of New England. She has received funding for soil carbon research from NSW and Commonwealth government programs. Annette is a member of Soil Science Australia, a not-for-profit, professional association for soil scientists, and on the Advisory Board of Australia New Zealand Biochar Industry Group. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Beverley Henry is an Adjunct Associate Professor at Queensland University of Technology. She has previously worked for, and received funding from, the Commonwealth and Queensland Governments, and has, or has previously held, science consulting and advisory roles with Australian and international government and agricultural organisations. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brian Wilson is a Professor in Terrestrial Carbon Management at the University of New England. He has received funding from the Commonwealth and State Government and from the Cotton Research and Development Corporation for research relevant to soil carbon.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Pannell is a professor in environmental economics and agricultural economics at the University of Western Australia. He has received funding from the Commonwealth Government and from Grains Research and Development Corporation for research relevant to soil carbon. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Rowlings is a Professor in Sustainable Agriculture at Queensland University of Technology. He receives funding from Meat and Livestock Australia and Department Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries for soil carbon research. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elaine Mitchell is a Research Fellow at the Queensland University of Technology. She has received funding from the Commonwealth Government for soil carbon research. She is also the founder of Ecometric, which provides advisory services in the natural capital space, including advice to carbon project developers on approaches to stratification, soil sampling and soil carbon modelling.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Tom Harrison is an Associate Professor at the University of Tasmania. He has been awarded funding from State and Commonwealth Governments, as well as Research Development Corporations to research practices, skills and technologies for improving soil organic carbon sequestration.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Grace is Professor Global Change at Queensland University of Technology. He currently receives funding from the Grains Research and Development Corporation, Meat and Livestock Australia, the Dept of Climate Change Energy Environment and Water, National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Scheme - Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network, AgriFutures, and AgriMix. He has previously received funding from the Clean Energy Regulator, the Dept of Agriculture Fisheries and Forestry, and Cotton Research and Development Corporation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raphael Viscarra Rossel is a Professor of Soil and Landscape Science at Curtin University. Previously, he was a Senior Principal Research Scientist at CSIRO, where he received funding from the Commonwealth Government for developing innovative soil carbon measurement methods that aided the formulation of the soil carbon methodology.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Eckard receives funding from Meat and Livestock Australia and the Commonwealth of Australia on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and carbon farming. His science contributed to six Australian carbon credit methods. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Warwick Badgery is a Research Leader with the NSW Department of Primary Industries and is an Honorary Senior Fellow at Melbourne University. He receives funding from Meat and Livestock Australia, the NSW and Federal Governments for research on climate mitigation and soil carbon. </span></em></p>A group of agricultural and soil scientists has serious concerns about the way credits are awarded for soil carbon sequestration in Australia.Aaron Simmons, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, University of New EnglandAnnette Cowie, Adjunct Professor, University of New EnglandBeverley Henry, Adjunct Associate Professor, Queensland University of TechnologyBrian Wilson, Professor, University of New EnglandDavid Pannell, Director, Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy, The University of Western AustraliaDavid Rowlings, Professor, Queensland University of TechnologyElaine Mitchell, Research Fellow, Queensland University of TechnologyMatthew Tom Harrison, Associate Professor of Sustainable Agriculture, University of TasmaniaPeter Grace, Professor of Global Change, Queensland University of TechnologyRaphael Viscarra Rossel, Professor of Soil & Landscape Science, Curtin UniversityRichard Eckard, Professor & Director, Primary Industries Climate Challenges Centre, The University of MelbourneWarwick Badgery, Research Leader Pastures an Rangelands, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2025072023-04-02T20:03:59Z2023-04-02T20:03:59ZCapitalising on climate anxiety: what you need to know about ‘climate-washing’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518342/original/file-20230330-24-znn3xy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4591%2C2897&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/hands-painting-blue-green-pollution-chimney-2044199009">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>People are increasingly making choices about which products to buy and which service providers to use on climate change grounds. With concerns about climate change <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/climate-of-the-nation-2022/">now affecting most</a> Australians, businesses that promote climate-aligned practices and make emissions-reduction promises have a competitive advantage over those that don’t.</p>
<p>But sometimes these claims fail to live up to reality. Climate-related greenwashing, or “climate-washing”, communicates a message that exaggerates or misrepresents climate credentials through advertising, branding, labelling or reporting. </p>
<p>Examples include where corporate marketing and government campaigns promising “net-zero emissions by 2050” are not backed by a credible plan. Or products are promoted as “carbon neutral” or “climate friendly” when they’re not. It also includes where banks and other investors claim to fund a “cleaner future” when this is not completely true, potentially masking climate-related financial risk.</p>
<p>Climate-washing is a problem because the offending businesses capitalise on climate anxiety. It also allows businesses lacking robust credentials to gain customers and market advantage on false pretences. Ultimately, it also hinders rather than helps progress towards emissions reduction goals. </p>
<p>In March, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-02/accc-to-crack-down-on-%E2%80%98greenwashing%E2%80%99/102045408">announced a crack-down</a> on climate-washing and greenwashing. This followed an ACCC report revealing claims made by <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/Greenwashing%20by%20businesses%20in%20Australia.pdf">more than half</a> the 247 Australian businesses reviewed in an internet sweep raised concern. The ACCC has said it will now undertake enforcement, compliance and education activities.</p>
<p>On Wednesday the Senate agreed to establish an <a href="https://greens.org.au/news/greens-establish-senate-inquiry-greenwashing">inquiry into greenwashing</a> by corporations in Australia. The inquiry will investigate the impacts of greenwashing on consumers and the environment and will identify the legal and regulatory actions needed to stop it. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/greenwashing-how-ads-get-you-to-think-brands-are-greener-than-they-are-and-how-to-avoid-falling-for-it-183169">Greenwashing: how ads get you to think brands are greener than they are – and how to avoid falling for it</a>
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<h2>The credibility gap</h2>
<p>The imperative to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century has been consistently reinforced by climate science. This includes, most recently, this month’s <a href="https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf">report</a> by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. </p>
<p>One of the upshots has been a deluge of net-zero strategic marketing. Particularly in the case of large climate change contributors – such as fossil fuel companies, airlines and the meat industry – adopting a net-zero narrative switches public perception that the company is part of the solution, rather than the problem. </p>
<p>Climate-washing essentially describes a gap between what’s promised and what’s likely to be achieved. This “credibility gap” can be due to factors such as over-reliance on speculative technology, offsetting, and modelling that’s outdated or hasn’t been properly verified. Although there’s a big global push toward transparency, many entities don’t adequately disclose the data and assumptions behind their promises. </p>
<h2>Complaints and court cases</h2>
<p>Last week, a group called Flight Free and their lawyers <a href="https://flightfree.net.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/230323-MR-Etihad-greenwashing-referral.pdf">approached the ACCC</a> over Etihad Airways advertising that said, “flying shouldn’t cost the earth” and “net zero emissions by 2050”. The ads were shown prominently at a soccer match in Melbourne last year. <a href="https://www.edo.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/230322-Complaint-to-ACCC-Etihad-Airways-climate-advertisements.pdf">Flight Free says</a> the advertising is misleading.</p>
<p>The Etihad complaint follows the Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility’s Federal Court proceedings against gas company Santos. Currently afoot, <a href="https://www.accr.org.au/news/australasian-centre-for-corporate-responsibility-expands-landmark-federal-court-case-against-santos/">this complaint</a> challenges Santos’ “clean fuel” and “net-zero by 2040” claims. </p>
<p>Earlier this year, corporate watchdog ASIC (the Australian Securities and Investment Commission) initiated proceedings <a href="https://asic.gov.au/about-asic/news-centre/find-a-media-release/2023-releases/23-043mr-asic-launches-first-court-proceedings-alleging-greenwashing/">against super fund Mercer</a> for allegedly misleading investors into thinking their investments in a “sustainable” investment option excluded fossil fuels. </p>
<p>Around the world, there’s been a <a href="https://cssn.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/CSSN-Research-Report-2022-1-Climate-Washing-Litigation-Legal-Liability-for-Misleading-Climate-Communications.pdf">recent rise</a> in climate-washing litigation. <a href="http://climatecasechart.com/non-us-case-category/misleading-advertising/">Multiple complaints</a> allege that the football association FIFA falsely advertised the Qatar World Cup as “fully carbon neutral.” </p>
<p>In aviation, there’s a pending court case against KLM targeting its “fly responsibly” campaign, and there’s also been a successful challenge to RyanAir’s low-carbon campaign. </p>
<p>Product complaints have ranged from allegedly climate-neutral bin liners, to “climate-controlled pork” in Denmark, and “climate-neutral croquettes” in Germany. </p>
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<h2>How is climate-washing regulated?</h2>
<p>Climate-washing is a form of misleading and deceptive conduct, which is regulated in Australia under federal <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2023C00043">competition and consumer law</a>. </p>
<p>Climate-washing that relates to financial products and services is regulated under <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2021C00281">securities and investments law</a>. </p>
<p>Both the ACCC and <a href="https://asic.gov.au/regulatory-resources/financial-services/how-to-avoid-greenwashing-when-offering-or-promoting-sustainability-related-products/">ASIC</a> monitor climate-washing. </p>
<p>Globally, concerns over climate-washing have led to action by the United Nations. A High-Level Expert Group on the Net-Zero Emissions Commitments of Non-State Entities was formed last year to target climate-washing. The group has a “zero tolerance for net-zero greenwashing” mantra, and delivered <a href="https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/high-levelexpertgroupupdate7.pdf">a report</a> at November’s Climate Change COP in Egypt, which contains a “how-to” guide for credible, accountable net-zero pledges.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/toxic-cover-up-6-lessons-australia-can-draw-from-the-uns-scathing-report-on-greenwashing-194054">'Toxic cover-up': 6 lessons Australia can draw from the UN's scathing report on greenwashing</a>
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<h2>What you can do</h2>
<p>There’s every reason to support businesses taking genuine and meaningful climate action. But as a consumer, it’s hard to fact-check simple statements that are in reality pretty complex claims. </p>
<p>If you’re suspicious of climate-washing, you can report it to the ACCC <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/contact-us/contact-the-accc/report-a-consumer-issue">here</a>. You can also monitor the work of non-profits investigating and reporting on climate-washing. For example, stay informed by following sites such as ClientEarth’s <a href="https://www.clientearth.org/projects/the-greenwashing-files/">The Greenwashing Files</a>. And follow the public interest law centres taking action, such as <a href="https://www.instagram.com/enviro_justice_australia/?hl=en">Environmental Justice Australia</a>, the <a href="https://www.instagram.com/environmentaldefendersoffice/">Environmental Defenders Offices</a>, and <a href="https://twitter.com/eglawyers?lang=en">Equity Generation</a>. </p>
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<p>When buying a product or service, it never hurts to ask questions and to be sent more information. If you’re a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/10/climate/banks-shareholders-climate-action.html">shareholder</a>, look closely at annual reports. And make the most of voting opportunities. </p>
<p>Have a say on government proposals targeting climate change and climate-washing. The initial <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/consultation/c2022-314397">consultation process</a> for the Australian government’s action on climate disclosure and reporting has recently closed, but submissions on new reporting requirements will open later this year. </p>
<p>Ultimately, it’s a good thing that governments and corporations want to align with a smooth transition toward a net-zero future. And jumping on the net-zero bandwagon is certainly a welcome step away from climate denialism. </p>
<p>But in order for net-zero goals to actually be achieved in a way that avoids a last-minute scramble and significant losses along the way, it’s important for everyone that pledges and promises are made frankly, earnestly and credibly.</p>
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<p><em><strong>Editor’s note:</strong> In response to the misleading advertising claim, Etihad said it “runs a comprehensive research, development, and innovation programme to address aviation decarbonisation, and is committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2050”.</em></p>
<p><em>The Australian Centre for Corporate Responsibility case against Santos is before the courts.</em></p>
<p><em>Super fund Mercer said in a statement: “We have co-operated with ASIC on their enquiries and take their concerns very seriously. As this matter is before the courts, it would be inappropriate for us to comment further at this time.”</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202507/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laura Schuijers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While the ACCC, ASIC and a new senate inquiry begin to flush out greenwashing, we take a closer look at dodgy climate claims. Complaints and court cases are stacking up. Here’s what you need to know.Laura Schuijers, Deputy Director, Australian Centre for Climate and Environmental Law and Lecturer in Law, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1999162023-02-19T16:59:37Z2023-02-19T16:59:37ZThe rise of renewables is not without risk for investors<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510584/original/file-20230216-28-kllla6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1200%2C607&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Reaching net-zero by 2050 will require 2,000 billion dollars' worth of investment in clean electricity per year, according to the International Energy Agency.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/sunciti_sundaram/14355126874">Suncit/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Given the urgent need to combat climate change and put an end to the exploitation of fossil fuels, it would appear renewable energies have a bright future. Having grown steadily for several years, they accounted for <a href="https://www.statistiques.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/les-energies-renouvelables-en-france-en-2020-suivi-de-la-directive-200928ce-relative-la-promotion">19.1% of gross final energy consumption in France</a> in 2020. Across the Channel, <a href="https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/energy-explained/how-much-uks-energy-renewable">43% of the energy consumed in oot twhe UK</a> now comes from renewable sources such as wind, solar and hydroelectric power.</p>
<p>That said, it is essential we step up green investment even more if we are to sustain low-carbon economic growth. According to the International Energy Agency, more than <a href="https://www.la-croix.com/environnement/Climat-lAgence-internationale-lenergie-prevoit-pic-emissions-CO2-liees-lenergie-2025-2022-10-27-1201239635">$2 trillion in annual investment in clean electricity</a> will be needed by 2030 to achieve carbon neutrality. The war in Ukraine has also highlighted the risks posed by states’ dependence on imported hydrocarbons, making the energy transition not only an economic and ecological imperative, but a political one.</p>
<p>However, we note in an <a href="https://edhec.infrastructure.institute/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/EDHECinfra_Research_Does-the-rise-of-renewable-energy-create-new-risks-for-investors.pdf">EDHECinfra study</a> that there are a number of risks inherent in this type of investment. Our work has tracked 20 years of energy transition in the UK, an example of an economy that has successfully moved away from coal and made a rapid transition to renewables, while relying on limited hydro and nuclear power.</p>
<h2>The risk premium increases</h2>
<p>As in most developed economies, the growing share of intermittent renewables in the energy mix has created new challenges:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>an increase in development costs;</p></li>
<li><p>an increase in production volatility;</p></li>
<li><p>an increase in market price volatility.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>So while renewables are enjoying record profits (a recent <a href="https://edhec.infrastructure.institute/paper/the-pricing-of-green-infrastructure/">EDHECinfra research note</a> showed that returns on European renewable energy assets reached 16% in 2020, up from 10% in 2015), the risks faced by investors are also increasing.</p>
<p>And while interest remains strong, the risk premium demanded by the market in unlisted wind and solar projects has started to rise again since the beginning of 2022, after a decade of decline. This premium now stands at 700 basis points for wind projects in the most developed economies, according to our data provider <a href="https://edhec.infrastructure.institute/get-started/">infraMetrics</a>, up from just over 500 at the end of 2020. </p>
<p>The impact on investors of a rapid transition to intermittent renewable energy generation is therefore notable. First up, there is the instability of the energy system to contend with, but also the increase in the value of gas production, which remains one of the main sources of energy, increased price volatility, and of course, a negative impact on the returns expected by investors.</p>
<p>To rebalance the risks, investors and consumers could turn to price stabilisation mechanisms.</p>
<h2>The storage capacity strategy</h2>
<p>For investors, this is an opportunity to better think about and manage the risks to which they are exposed. Part of these risks can be managed by investing in the technologies that seem to be most needed today, such as those that increase storage capacity. To date, the majority of new investments have been directed toward intermittent energy production (such as wind and photovoltaic). However, storage capacity is struggling to develop at the same rate, which makes the supply chain more fragile.</p>
<p>But other tools than the investment strategy can also be mobilised. In this respect, diversification can be mentioned. For example: combining investments in several types of renewable energy, such as wind and solar, or in several European countries.</p>
<p>Investors can also opt to use hedging strategies such as hedging (insurance or guarantee contracts against risk). Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) and Contracts for Difference (CfDs), financial instruments designed to limit the risk of losses, can also be used.</p>
<h2>The urgent need to stabilise prices</h2>
<p>While investors have the leverage to control the risks to which they are exposed, strong public intervention remains necessary to accelerate the development of renewable energies. Firstly, it is necessary to protect consumers from soaring prices <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/articles/costoflivinginsights/energy">(+65.5% for electricity in the United Kingdom</a> over the period from November 2021 to November 2022, <a href="https://www.service-public.fr/particuliers/actualites/A15944">+15% in France</a> from January 2023 thanks to the tariff shield).</p>
<p>Thus, the preservation of existing price stabilisation mechanisms such as the tariff shield in France, the “contracts for difference”, or the end of price coupling between gas and electricity seems essential.</p>
<p>This type of measure would indeed make it possible to compensate for the deficiencies of a market which is increasingly based on the production of renewable energies, but where gas remains, paradoxically, the measure of all things.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199916/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Market volatility and rising development costs have led to an increase in the risk premium in recent years.Frédéric Blanc-Brude, Directeur de l'EDHEC Infrastructure Institute, EDHEC Business SchoolLaurence Monnier, Research Associate and member of the EDHECinfra Advisory Board, EDHEC Business SchoolLeonard Lum, Data analyst, EDHECinfra, EDHEC Business SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1828462022-05-18T19:46:16Z2022-05-18T19:46:16Z5 technologies that will help make the food system carbon neutral<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463993/original/file-20220518-13-m3o8vb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=63%2C45%2C3765%2C2109&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The key to unlocking the benefits of new agricultural technologies is to develop food systems where the waste products from one step become valuable inputs in another.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Globally, about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature.2012.11708">one-third of all greenhouse gas emissions</a> come from agriculture and food systems. The carbon footprint of food systems includes all the emissions from its growing, processing, transportation and waste. </p>
<p>Agriculture is also <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/food/ng-interactive/2022/apr/14/climate-crisis-food-systems-not-ready-biodiversity">vulnerable to the effects of climate change</a> and, as the conflict in <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/voices/war-ukraine-amplifying-already-prevailing-food-crisis-west-africa-and-sahel-region">Ukraine</a> demonstrates, food systems can be exposed to geopolitics. </p>
<p>Several technologies are already available that can help decarbonize the complex systems that link producers and consumers. These technologies can also make our food systems much more resilient to global threats. Here are five that we think show tremendous potential.</p>
<h2>1. Carbon farms and regenerative agriculture</h2>
<p>Today, most of the greenhouse gas emissions linked with our food come from producing the food, and are emitted when the soils are plowed. This is important as <a href="https://theconversation.com/farming-without-disturbing-soil-could-cut-agricultures-climate-impact-by-30-new-research-157153">undisturbed soils store carbon</a>. </p>
<p>But with some relatively small changes to management, soils can once again become carbon sinks. For instance, planting legumes and <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/forage-crops">forage crops</a> every few years, rather than just growing commodities like wheat or corn, or seeding a cover crop in the fall, when fields would otherwise be bare, allow organic matter to build up and help the <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2020.577723">soil to absorb carbon</a>. Not only does this help slow climate change, it also protects soils from erosion. </p>
<p>The idea that farmers can simply use more crop types may not seem technologically sophisticated, but it does work. And a new generation of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2019.10.022">smart farming tools</a>, which includes farming equipment that uses big data and artificial intelligence, will soon help farmers adopt these practices that produce food and trap carbon. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/food-is-poised-to-get-a-lot-more-expensive-but-it-doesnt-have-to-162206">Food is poised to get a lot more expensive, but it doesn't have to</a>
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<p>These smart farming tools are part of a broader digital agricultural revolution, also known of as precision farming, that will <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-100516-053654">allow farmers to reduce their environmental impact</a> and track how much greenhouse gas their fields are capturing, creating a carbon ledger that documents their efforts. </p>
<h2>2. Smart fertilizers</h2>
<p>Traditionally, it takes a lot of <a href="https://www.fertilizer.org/images/Library_Downloads/2014_ifa_ff_ammonia_emissions_july.pdf">fossil fuels to turn nitrogen from the air into fertilizer</a>. Additionally, it is <a href="https://p2irc.usask.ca/articles/2021/challenges-and-potential-solutions-to-improve-fertilizer-use---may-2021-final.pdf">challenging for farmers to put exactly the right amount of fertilizer in the right place</a>, at the right time, for crops to use it efficiently. </p>
<p>Fertilizers are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1081/CSS-100104098">often overapplied</a>, and not used by crops, ending up as pollution, either as as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-019-0133-9">greenhouse gases</a> or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/es00009a001">water contaminants</a>. But a new generation of fertilizers aims to fix these problems. </p>
<p>Smart bio-fertilizers, use <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/agricultural-and-biological-sciences/biofertilizer">micro-organisms that are bred or engineered to live in harmony with crops</a> and capture nutrients from the environment, providing them to the crops without waste. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A tractor drives down rows of crops spraying fertilizer." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463998/original/file-20220518-11-allm8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463998/original/file-20220518-11-allm8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463998/original/file-20220518-11-allm8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463998/original/file-20220518-11-allm8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463998/original/file-20220518-11-allm8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463998/original/file-20220518-11-allm8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463998/original/file-20220518-11-allm8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Smart bio-fertilizers that use micro-organisms to capture the nutrients from the environment can avoid the waste and pollution problems associated with conventional fertilizers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Precision fermentation</h2>
<p>Humans have used micro-organisms to turn sugars and starches into fermented products such as beer, wine and bread since the dawn of history. But before long, precision fermentation will be used to produce a great many more products. </p>
<p>For decades this technology has been used to create most of the world’s insulin and the enzyme rennet used in cheese making. The United States recently allowed <a href="https://cen.acs.org/food/food-ingredients/start-ups-make-us-love/98/i38">animal-free fermented dairy protein</a> — made by inserting milk-producing genes into microbes — to be used in <a href="https://braverobot.co/">ice cream</a>, which is now available for sale. It is only a matter of time before products from <a href="https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2020/02/03/Disrupting-dairy-with-precision-fermentation-By-2035-industrial-cattle-farming-will-be-obsolete">precision fermentation become common place in supermarkets everywhere</a>.</p>
<p>In the future, if fermentation micro-organisms are fed waste products (such as leftover “spent grains” from brewing or waste starch from plant-based proteins), farmers could create low-impact, high-value products out of organic material that would otherwise be wasted and decompose into greenhouse gasses. </p>
<h2>4. Vertical farming</h2>
<p>While nothing beats fresh fruit and vegetables, picked ripe and eaten immediately, the sad reality is that most of the fresh produce eaten in Canada, northern United States and northern Europe comes from industrial farms in the southwestern United States or the southern hemisphere. The <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26334145">carbon footprint of this long-distance cold chain</a> is large, and the quality of the produce is not always the best. </p>
<p>A new generation of vertical farms aims to change this by using energy-efficient LED lights to produce year-round crops close to home. These <a href="https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2018/08/14/vertical-farming-future">controlled-environment agricultural facilities</a> use less water and labour than conventional farms, and produce large quantities of fresh fruits and vegetables on small plots of land. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Vertical tubes with green lettuce leaves sprouting from them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464000/original/file-20220518-17-y8gcai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464000/original/file-20220518-17-y8gcai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464000/original/file-20220518-17-y8gcai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464000/original/file-20220518-17-y8gcai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464000/original/file-20220518-17-y8gcai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464000/original/file-20220518-17-y8gcai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464000/original/file-20220518-17-y8gcai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rows of romaine lettuce grow at a vertical farm.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Brandon Wade/AP Images for Eden Green)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What’s more, these facilities are springing up all over <a href="https://www.goodleaffarms.com">North America</a> and Europe, but especially in Singapore and <a href="https://npoplantfactory.org/en/">Japan</a>. While there is still considerable debate as to whether the current generation of vertical farms are <a href="https://www.agritecture.com/blog/2022/5/9/a-holistic-look-at-vertical-farmings-carbon-footprint-and-land-use">better in terms of energy use</a>, they are increasingly poised to use renewable energy to ensure a carbon-neutral fresh produce supply year-round, even in <a href="https://www.globalaginvesting.com/elevate-farms-secures-10m-bring-vertical-farming-remote-northern-canada/">Canada’s North</a>.</p>
<h2>5. Biogas</h2>
<p>The manure from livestock facilities is challenging to manage as it can become a source of water pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. However, if livestock manure is placed in an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anifeedsci.2011.04.075">anaerobic digester</a>, it’s possible to capture the naturally occurring methane as a <a href="http://www.omafra.gov.on.ca/english/engineer/biogas/">green natural gas</a>. </p>
<p>Properly planned, biogas digesters can also turn municipal organic waste into renewable energy, thus giving agriculture the opportunity to contribute to a sustainable energy portfolio. This is already happening on farms in Ontario, where a new generation of biogas digesters are helping <a href="https://farmtario.com/news/ontario-farmers-seeing-revenue-opportunity-in-biogas-digesters/">boost farm incomes and displace fossil fuels</a>. </p>
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<p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-how-food-waste-can-generate-clean-energy-176352">Here's how food waste can generate clean energy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Driving systems change</h2>
<p>These technologies become far more exciting when they’re linked. For example, biogas collectors attached to livestock farms could be used to create the energy required to run fermentation facilities that produce animal-free dairy products. </p>
<p>Similarly, if plant-based proteins, such as those that come from leguminous crops like peas, are produced on farms using regenerative agricultural techniques and processed locally, the leftover starches can be used for precision fermentation. While we are not aware of this process being done at scale, it potential sustainability benefit is huge.</p>
<p>The key to unlocking these benefits is to develop agri-food businesses that are <a href="https://archive.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/explore/food-cities-the-circular-economy">circular food systems</a>, so that the waste products from one step become valuable inputs in another. A critical addition to circular food systems will be carbon tracking from field to table, where the benefits are rewarded. </p>
<p>Technologies to achieve a carbon-neutral, <a href="https://guelph.ca/wp-content/uploads/SmartCities_Booklet.pdf">circular food economy</a> are rapidly approaching maturity. It will likely only be a few years before the five <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tifs.2021.11.013">technologies described above become mainstream</a>. </p>
<p>Today, the world faces one of the biggest challenges of the century: how to nutritiously feed the world’s growing population, address climate change and not destroy the ecosystems on which we all depend for life. But we are on the brink of having the tools to feed the future and protect the planet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182846/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rene Van Acker receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and the Government of Ontario through the Ontario Agri-Food Alliance. He is affiliated with The Deans Council, Agriculture, Food and Veterinary Medicine. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Evan Fraser consults with a range of vertical farming companies and initiatives including the Weston Family Foundation's Home Grown Innovation Challenge and Cubic Farms. He receives funding from a range of governmental and philanthropic sources including the Canada First Research Excellence Fund, the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council and the Arrell Family Foundation. He is affiliated with the Canadian Food Policy Advisory Council, Protein Industries Canada, Genome Quebec, and the Maple Leaf Centre for Action on Food Security. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lenore Newman receives funding from SSHRC and Future Skills Centre Canada. She is chair of the Science Advisory Board for Cubic Farms.</span></em></p>The world is facing one of the century’s biggest challenges: How to nutritiously feed the growing population, address climate change and not destroy the ecosystems on which we all depend for life.Rene Van Acker, Professor and Dean of The Ontario Agricultural College, University of GuelphEvan Fraser, Director of the Arrell Food Institute and Professor in the Dept. of Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of GuelphLenore Newman, Canada Research Chair, Food Security and the Environment, University of The Fraser ValleyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1684592021-12-02T13:41:45Z2021-12-02T13:41:45ZThe US biofuel mandate helps farmers, but does little for energy security and harms the environment<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435076/original/file-20211201-25-y8w0za.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=42%2C8%2C5565%2C3715&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Surplus corn piled outside a farmer's co-op storage facility in Paoli, Colorado.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/surplus-corn-harvested-in-2010-is-piled-outside-a-farmers-news-photo/107592314">Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you’ve pumped gas at a U.S. service station over the past decade, you’ve put biofuel in your tank. Thanks to the federal <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R43325.pdf">Renewable Fuel Standard</a>, or RFS, almost all gasoline sold nationwide is required to contain 10% ethanol – a fuel made from plant sources, mainly corn. </p>
<p>With the recent rise in pump prices, biofuel lobbies are pressing to <a href="https://www.agriculture.com/news/business/biofuel-groups-push-for-strong-ethanol-mandate-citing-climate-and-gas-prices">boost that target to 15% or more</a>. At the same time, some policymakers are calling for reforms. For example, a bipartisan group of U.S. senators has introduced a bill that would <a href="https://www.feinstein.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2021/7/feinstein-toomey-menendez-collins-introduce-bipartisan-bill-to-repeal-ethanol-mandate">eliminate the corn ethanol portion of the mandate</a>. </p>
<p>Enacted in the wake of the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, the RFS promised to enhance energy security, cut carbon dioxide emissions and boost income for rural America. The program has certainly raised profits for portions of the agricultural industry, but in my view it has failed to fulfill its other promises. Indeed, studies by some scientists, <a href="https://research.umich.edu/john-decicco">including me</a>, find that biofuel use has increased rather than decreased CO2 emissions to date. </p>
<p>Current law sets a target of producing and using 36 billion gallons of biofuels by 2022 as part of the roughly 200 billion gallons of motor fuel that U.S. motor vehicles burn each year. As of 2019, drivers were using <a href="https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/">only 20 billion gallons</a> of renewable fuels yearly – mainly corn ethanol and soybean biodiesel. Usage declined in 2020 because of the pandemic, as did most energy use. Although the 2021 tally is not yet complete, the program remains far from its 36 billion-gallon goal. I believe the time is ripe to repeal the RFS, or at least greatly scale it back. </p>
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<h2>Higher profits for many farmers</h2>
<p>The RFS’s clearest success has been boosting income for corn and soybean farmers and related agricultural firms. It also has built up a sizable domestic biofuel industry. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://ethanolrfa.org/">Renewable Fuels Association</a>, a trade group for the biofuels industry, estimates that the RFS has <a href="https://ethanolrfa.org/media-and-news/category/news-releases/article/2019/02/ethanol-industry-makes-a-significant-contribution-to-u-s-economy-rfa-analysis-finds">generated over 300,000 jobs</a> in recent years. Two-thirds of these jobs are in the top ethanol-producing states: Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois, Minnesota, Indiana and South Dakota. Given Iowa’s key role in presidential primaries, most politicians with national ambitions find it prudent to <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/03/05/2020-democrats-ethanol-225517/">embrace biofuels</a>. </p>
<p>The RFS displaces a modest amount of petroleum, shifting some income away from the oil industry and into agribusiness. Nevertheless, biofuels’ contribution to U.S. energy security pales compared with gains from <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=847&t=6">expanded domestic oil production through hydraulic fracturing</a> – which of course brings its own severe environmental damages. And using ethanol in fuel poses <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-aims-to-boost-ethanol-without-evidence-that-it-saves-money-or-helps-the-environment-96701">other risks</a>, including <a href="https://www.consumerreports.org/cro/news/2013/03/gas-with-ethanol-can-make-small-engines-fail/index.htm">damage to small engines</a> and <a href="https://www.iea-amf.org/content/fuel_information/ethanol/e10/e10_compatibility">higher emissions from fuel fumes</a>. </p>
<p>For consumers, biofuel use has had a <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-19-47">varying, but overall small, effect</a> on pump prices. Renewable fuel policy has little leverage in the world oil market, where the biofuel mandate’s penny-level effects are no match for oil’s dollar-scale volatility. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1463600311579385862"}"></div></p>
<h2>Biofuels are not carbon-neutral</h2>
<p>The idea that biofuels are good for the environment rests on the assumption that they are inherently carbon neutral – meaning that the CO2 emitted when biofuels are burned is fully offset by the CO2 that feedstocks like corn and soybeans absorb as they grow. This assumption is coded into computer models used to evaluate fuels. </p>
<p>Leading up to passage of the RFS, such modeling found modest CO2 reductions for <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1121416">corn ethanol</a> and <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0604600103">soybean biodiesel</a>. It promised greater benefits from <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cellulosic_ethanol">cellulosic ethanol</a> – a more advanced type of biofuel that would be made from nonfood sources, such as crop residues and energy crops like willow and switchgrass. </p>
<p>But subsequent research has shown that <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1178797">biofuels are not actually carbon-neutral</a>. Correcting this mistake by evaluating real-world changes in cropland carbon uptake reveals that biofuel use has <a href="http://theconversation.com/biofuels-turn-out-to-be-a-climate-mistake-heres-why-64463">increased CO2 emissions</a>. </p>
<p>One big factor is that making biofuels amplifies land-use change. As harvests are diverted from feeding humans and livestock to produce fuel, additional farmland is needed to compensate. That means <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0910275107">forests are cut down</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab0399">prairies are plowed up </a> to carve out new acres for crop production, triggering very large CO2 releases. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432901/original/file-20211119-17-1eetdr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=28%2C21%2C4748%2C3695&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Corn kernels pour into a bin." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432901/original/file-20211119-17-1eetdr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=28%2C21%2C4748%2C3695&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432901/original/file-20211119-17-1eetdr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432901/original/file-20211119-17-1eetdr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432901/original/file-20211119-17-1eetdr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432901/original/file-20211119-17-1eetdr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432901/original/file-20211119-17-1eetdr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432901/original/file-20211119-17-1eetdr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">About 40% of corn produced in the U.S. is used to make ethanol.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/ethanol-harvest-royalty-free-image/520153118?adppopup=true">Shuli Hallak/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Expanding farmland for biofuel production is also bad for the environment in other ways. Studies show that it has <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-021-02232-5">reduced the abundance and diversity of plants and animals worldwide</a>. In the U.S., it has amplified other adverse impacts of industrial agriculture, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/industrial-corn-farming-is-ruining-our-health-and-polluting-our-watersheds-39721">nutrient runoff and water pollution</a>. </p>
<h2>The failure of cellulosic ethanol</h2>
<p>When Congress expanded the biofuel mandate in 2007, a key factor that induced legislators from states outside the Midwest to support it was the belief that a coming generation of cellulosic ethanol would produce even greater environmental, energy and economic benefits. Biofuel proponents claimed that cellulosic fuels were <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/whatever-happened-to-advanced-biofuels/">close to becoming commercially viable</a>. </p>
<p>Almost 15 years later, in spite of the mandate and billions of dollars in federal support, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/02/11/cellulosic-ethanol-falling-far-short-of-the-hype/?sh=69132fb2505f">cellulosic ethanol has flopped</a>. Total production of liquid cellulosic biofuels has recently hovered around <a href="https://www.carsclimate.com/2021/11/cellulosic-failure.html">10 million gallons per year</a> – a tiny fraction of the 16 billion gallons that the RFS calls for producing in 2022. Technical challenges have proved to be more daunting than proponents claimed. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433778/original/file-20211124-15-1q9hjjc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Man in a field of tall grass." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433778/original/file-20211124-15-1q9hjjc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433778/original/file-20211124-15-1q9hjjc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433778/original/file-20211124-15-1q9hjjc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433778/original/file-20211124-15-1q9hjjc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433778/original/file-20211124-15-1q9hjjc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433778/original/file-20211124-15-1q9hjjc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433778/original/file-20211124-15-1q9hjjc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Making cellulosic ethanol from plants like switchgrass is complicated and remains unaffordable despite large subsidies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/switchgrass-production-in-tennessee-royalty-free-image/522082062?adppopup=true">Karen Kasmauski/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Environmentally speaking, I see the cellulosic failure as a relief. If the technology were to succeed, I believe it would likely unleash an even more aggressive global expansion of <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/25012019/climate-change-agriculture-farming-consolidation-corn-soybeans-meat-crop-subsidies/">industrial agriculture</a> – large-scale farms that raise only one or two crops and rely on highly mechanized methods with intensive chemical fertilizer and pesticide use. Some such risk remains as petroleum refiners invest in <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=48916">bio-based diesel production</a> and producers modify corn ethanol facilities to <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/money/agriculture/2021/10/25/cedar-rapids-archer-daniels-midland-adm-ethanol-plant-may-start-making-sustainable-aviation-jet-fuel/6174737001/">produce biojet fuel</a>. </p>
<h2>Ripple effects on lands and Indigenous people</h2>
<p>Today the vast majority of biofuels are made from crops like corn and soybeans that also are used for food and animal feed. Global markets for major commodity crops are closely coupled, so increased demand for biofuel production drives up their prices globally. </p>
<p>This price pressure <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es101946t">amplifies deforestation</a> and <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/biofuels-land-grab-guatemala/">land-grabbing</a> in locations from <a href="https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/brazil-deforestation/">Brazil</a> to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su13179821">Thailand</a>. The Renewable Fuel Standard thus aggravates <a href="https://theconversation.com/blood-in-bio-ethanol-how-indigenous-peoples-lives-are-being-destroyed-by-global-agribusiness-in-brazil-101348">displacement of Indigenous communities</a>, <a href="https://nyti.ms/2zleOBK">destruction of peatlands</a> and similar harms along agricultural frontiers worldwide, mainly in developing countries. </p>
<p>Some researchers have found that adverse effects of biofuel production on land use, crop prices and climate are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/713026">much smaller than previously estimated</a>. Nevertheless, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.120716">uncertainties surrounding land use change</a> and net effects on CO2 emissions are enormous. The complex modeling of biofuel-related commodity markets and land utilization is impossible to verify, as it extrapolates effects across the globe and into the future.</p>
<p>Rather than biofuels, a much better way to address transportation-related CO2 emissions is through improving efficiency, particularly <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-make-the-us-auto-fleet-greener-increasing-fuel-efficiency-matters-more-than-selling-electric-vehicles-153085">raising gasoline vehicle fuel economy</a> while electric cars continue to advance. </p>
<p>[<em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-corona-important">Get The Conversation’s most important coronavirus headlines, weekly in a science newsletter</a></em>]</p>
<h2>A stool with two weak legs</h2>
<p>What can we conclude from 16 years of the RFS? As I see it, two of its three policy legs are now quite wobbly: Its energy security rationale is largely moot, and its climate rationale has proved false. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, key agricultural interests strongly support the program and may be able to prop it up indefinitely. Indeed, as some commentators have observed, the biofuel mandate has become another <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2019/08/22/the-ethanol-industrys-flaw-is-its-entitlement-mentality/?sh=7b7e740f1d9a">agribusiness entitlement</a>. Taxpayers probably would have to pay dearly in a deal to repeal the RFS. For the sake of the planet, it would be a cost worth paying.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168459/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John M. DeCicco, Ph.D., is a Research Professor Emeritus retired from the University of Michigan. While remaining professionally active in energy and environmental research, he currently receives no funding and has no relevant relationships beyond his academic affiliation. </span></em></p>The US has required motor fuels to contain 10% biofuels since 2005. As this program nears a key milestone in 2022, farm advocates want to expand it while critics want to pare it back or repeal it.John DeCicco, Research Professor Emeritus, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1695112021-10-14T17:38:36Z2021-10-14T17:38:36ZCanada is aiming for carbon neutrality and that will mean big changes to how we produce and consume energy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426252/original/file-20211013-25-1z001do.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C5%2C991%2C649&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A coal mine in Alberta. Canada has adopted a carbon neutral target for 2050. It represents a major change Canada's approach to reducing GHG emissions.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/net-zero-emissions-2050.html">Canada recently adopted a target to reach net-zero emissions by 2050</a> and increased its greenhouse gas reduction targets for 2030. It is now committed to cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 45 percent below 2005 levels by 2030.</p>
<p>The new goal is significant. Also, aiming for carbon neutrality fundamentally changes the approach Canada must adopt to meet its targets.</p>
<p>This is shown in the <a href="https://iet.polymtl.ca/en/energy-outlook/"><em>Canadian Energy Outlook 2021</em></a>, a report we wrote in collaboration with Olivier Bahn of the Pôle e3c at HEC Montreal and with <a href="https://www.esmia.ca/en/">ESMIA Consultants</a>. It presents the results from modelling different scenarios for the decarbonization of Canadian society.</p>
<p>This second edition of the <em>Canadian Energy Outlook</em> presents scenarios with projections about the evolution of energy production and consumption, as well as all greenhouse gas emissions related to human activity. It compares transformation scenarios over the next 40 years using the most detailed hypotheses available about how technology will evolve.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Refineries project emissions into the sky" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424828/original/file-20211005-27-1tv1egf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424828/original/file-20211005-27-1tv1egf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424828/original/file-20211005-27-1tv1egf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424828/original/file-20211005-27-1tv1egf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424828/original/file-20211005-27-1tv1egf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424828/original/file-20211005-27-1tv1egf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424828/original/file-20211005-27-1tv1egf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Will emissions from oil refineries in Alberta’s oil sands soon to be a thing of the past?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>5 scenarios</h2>
<p>Analyses have long shown that in order to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, Canada must transform its energy system, which is <a href="https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/science-and-data/data-and-analysis/energy-data-and-analysis/energy-facts/energy-and-greenhouse-gas-emissions-ghgs/20063?_ga=2.19371000.1950911899.1634045789-1813334409.1633630671">responsible for more than 80 per cent of emissions</a>. Regional diversity, the economic weight of this sector (<a href="https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/science-and-data/data-and-analysis/energy-data-and-analysis/energy-facts/energy-and-economy/20062?_ga=2.228454042.680063338.1633630671-1813334409.1633630671">it accounts for 10.2 per cent of GDP</a>) and the high level of per capita energy consumption (<a href="https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/canada-energy-future/canada-energy-transition/cndsnrgtrnstn-eng.pdf">it is second only to Iceland in the OECD</a>) add to the challenges Canada faces in making this necessary transformation.</p>
<p>To better understand these challenges, the <em>Canadian Energy Outlook 2021</em> models and analyzes the evolution of Canada’s energy system through 2060 according to five scenarios. These are a reference scenario, which includes all the measures that are presently in place (REF), a scenario that adds the announced increase of the carbon price to $170 per tonne by 2030 (CP30), and three scenarios for reaching carbon neutrality by 2060, 2050 and 2045 (NZ60, NZ50 and NZ45).</p>
<p>The scenario of carbon neutrality by 2050, which requires a 40 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 2005, corresponds to the new Canadian targets. The model uses the optimal trajectories that would allow these objectives to be met while minimizing the investments required. </p>
<h2>Transforming the Canadian economy</h2>
<p>Strictly speaking, these trajectories are not predictions — actual investments are rarely made in an optimal way because of short-term calculations, technological biases, preference for the easy way out, political pressures, etc. However, the trajectories have the merit of identifying some of the important keys to developing the kind of effective decarbonization strategies that will be required to fundamentally transform Canada’s economy in less than three decades.</p>
<p>The findings from this exercise are too numerous to detail here, so we will limit ourselves to a few.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426269/original/file-20211013-21-hqm2ft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426269/original/file-20211013-21-hqm2ft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426269/original/file-20211013-21-hqm2ft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426269/original/file-20211013-21-hqm2ft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426269/original/file-20211013-21-hqm2ft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426269/original/file-20211013-21-hqm2ft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426269/original/file-20211013-21-hqm2ft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426269/original/file-20211013-21-hqm2ft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Projecting Canadian GHG emissions to 2060. REF is the reference case, which includes measures in place today and growth projected by Canada’s Energy Board. CP30 adds a carbon price that reaches $170/tonne in 2030. NZ60, NZ50 and NZ45 are scenarios that require a linear reduction in GHG emissions to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060, 2050 and 2045, respectively. To achieve carbon neutrality, it will be necessary to capture and sequester up to 125 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Canadian Energy Outlook 2021 — Horizon 2060</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>The goal of net-zero changes everything</strong>. When we approached this new <em>Canadian Energy Outlook</em>, we expected that the more ambitious federal targets would be a tweak of the 80 per cent reduction scenarios we had reviewed in 2018. </p>
<p>This was not the case. The carbon neutrality target qualitatively changes the nature of the challenge. It is no longer a case of settling for solutions that partially reduce emissions here and there, hoping that the sum of the reductions will bring us to the target. Carbon neutrality requires that, wherever technically possible, the chosen solution should be zero emissions or remove greenhouse gases. The challenge of greenhouse gas capture and sequestration is such that it should only be used as a last resort.</p>
<p>This suggests that much fewer efforts should be spent on making fossil fuel-based technologies more efficient, and more should be spent on those that operate on green energy. It rejects the concept of transitional energy sources, such as natural gas, which is incompatible with carbon neutrality.</p>
<p><strong>Electricity will play a pivotal role in the transformation</strong>. This is not entirely new. All <a href="https://climatechoices.ca/reports/canadas-net-zero-future/">modelling and analysis of recent years</a> shows that renewable electricity will make a key contribution to achieving the reduction targets. To achieve carbon neutrality, models project that electricity production will have to increase by a factor of 2.3 (1.4 in Québec). The growth of renewable energy will be dominated across Canada by wind power, while remaining coal and natural gas generation will be almost completely eliminated.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Wind turbines on a mountain" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424827/original/file-20211005-27-ot6kkd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424827/original/file-20211005-27-ot6kkd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424827/original/file-20211005-27-ot6kkd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424827/original/file-20211005-27-ot6kkd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424827/original/file-20211005-27-ot6kkd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424827/original/file-20211005-27-ot6kkd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424827/original/file-20211005-27-ot6kkd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wind generators at Cap Chat, Gaspé. Electricity production will have to increase by a factor of 2.3, with growth dominated by wind power across Canada, while almost completely eliminating the remaining coal and natural gas generation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What’s new in this finding is that the models project a relatively small amount of electricity from biomass associated with carbon capture (BECSC). Although electricity from biomass is more expensive to produce than wind energy, it can be used to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in sectors that are difficult to decarbonize, such as agriculture, industry and transport.</p>
<p><strong>Not all sectors are equal</strong>. The availability of low-emission solutions are not the same in all economic sectors, which also operate differently. For example, although <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/greenhouse-gas-emissions.html">transportation is responsible for 30 per cent of Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions</a>, this sector is particularly slow and difficult to decarbonize due to the lack of well-established solutions. This means that other sectors will have to step up their efforts in order to compensate for this.</p>
<p>In the short term, this will be the case for the oil and gas sector, which will have to reduce its emissions by more than 60 per cent by 2030 to meet this first milestone, and for the industrial sector. The latter can respond quickly with the help of governments. In the medium term, the building sector will have to do the same. Low-GHG heating technologies exist and are available. The challenge here is to transform millions of buildings. That takes time and a clear vision.</p>
<h2>A cost-effective transformation</h2>
<p>The economic implications of the energy transition in projections for the next 30 years are uncertain. However, estimates of the net cost of massive electrification of Canada’s energy mix suggest that Canadians could save more than $60 billion annually from 2050 on by switching from oil and natural gas to renewable electricity.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426272/original/file-20211013-19-cq15zd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426272/original/file-20211013-19-cq15zd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426272/original/file-20211013-19-cq15zd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=287&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426272/original/file-20211013-19-cq15zd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=287&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426272/original/file-20211013-19-cq15zd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=287&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426272/original/file-20211013-19-cq15zd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426272/original/file-20211013-19-cq15zd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426272/original/file-20211013-19-cq15zd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Evolution of the marginal cost of the equivalent tonne of CO2 avoided, the cost associated with reducing the last tonne. The costs mentioned for the 2021 Outlook are the costs expected in the NZ50 scenario. The 2018 Outlook scenario projected an 80 per cent reduction in energy-related emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Canadian Energy Outlook 2021 — Horizon 2060)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The remarkable drop in the price of low-carbon technologies across all sectors is also reflected in the evolution of the marginal abatement cost curve between 2018 and 2021. The marginal abatement cost curve shows the highest cost per tonne of carbon dioxide to achieve a certain overall level of greenhouse gas reduction. The marginal cost of reducing Canadian emissions by 65 per cent presented here is roughly a third of what it was in the 2018 projections.</p>
<p>While uncertainties remain, it’s clear that with massive global investment in technologies with low greenhouse gas emissions, prices will continue to fall and the transition will be even less costly than what is currently projected.</p>
<p>However, we still have a long way to go, as the large-scale integration of these technologies requires a clear plan, upstream investments and consistent policies. Despite recent efforts by the federal and several provincial governments, the measures in place are still largely insufficient to achieve the 2030 and 2050 targets.</p>
<p>Our modelling shows that these are technically and economically feasible. What is still missing is a solid, credible, effective strategy and, above all, citizens, thinkers, business leaders and politicians who are convinced of the need and opportunity to act.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169511/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The production of the Canadian Energy Outlook 2021 – Horizon 2060 was supported, in part, by the Trottier Institute of Energy, the Pole e3 of HEC Montréal, the Trottier Family Foundation and Natural Resources Canada. No rights of review of the analyses and conclusions have been granted to the organizations that funded this report. The authors are solely responsible for them.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Trottier Institute of Energy of Polytechnique Montréal was created thanks to a generous donation from the Trottier Family Foundation. Its mission covers research, training and the dissemination of information related to the issues of decarbonization of energy systems.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Langlois-Bertrand ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>The goal of carbon neutrality changes everything. Canada can no longer limit itself to solutions that partially reduce emissions here and there. The chosen solution must be zero emissions.Normand Mousseau, Directeur de l’Institut de l’énergie Trottier, Polytechnique Montréal et Professeur de physique, Université de MontréalLouis Beaumier, Directeur exécutif, Institut de l'énergie Trottier, Polytechnique MontréalSimon Langlois-Bertrand, Chercheur associé, Institut de l'énergie Trottier, Polytechnique MontréalLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1588632021-04-15T14:41:21Z2021-04-15T14:41:21ZBill C-12: Canada must embrace best practices if it want to reach its greenhouse gas targets<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394885/original/file-20210413-21-9yndhv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=200%2C125%2C3929%2C2366&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">For more than 20 years, Canada has repeatedly missed its targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It is the only G7 country whose emissions have increased since 2010.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In November 2020, the Liberal government tabled a <a href="https://parl.ca/DocumentViewer/en/43-2/bill/C-12/first-reading">bill that introduces new governance to support its action on climate change</a> and, more specifically, its net-zero objectives for 2050. </p>
<p>In its current form, however, Bill C-12 is still insufficient. While several measures represent steps in the right direction, together, they fail to meet the minimum standards to bring change on the needed scale, as demonstrated by <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/2020/10/29/evidence-led-climate-policy-and-robust-climate-governance-are-key-to-delivering-the-paris-agreement/">best practices from abroad</a>.</p>
<p>For more than 20 years, Canada has repeatedly missed its greenhouse gas reduction targets, irrespective of the government in place. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01001-0">It is the only G7 country where emissions have increased since 2010</a>, while most industrialized countries and a growing number of emerging countries are successfully reducing their emissions. </p>
<p>Yet Canada is part of the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a>, which entered into force in 2016, and it has pledged a 30 per cent reduction in its greenhouse gas emissions compared to the 2005 level by 2030, nine years from now.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392825/original/file-20210331-17-u0dup1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392825/original/file-20210331-17-u0dup1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392825/original/file-20210331-17-u0dup1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392825/original/file-20210331-17-u0dup1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392825/original/file-20210331-17-u0dup1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392825/original/file-20210331-17-u0dup1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392825/original/file-20210331-17-u0dup1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Evolution of CO2 emissions of fossil origin between 2010 and 2019 in the G7 countries (per cent)</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Data from the Global Carbon Project and UNFCCC)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The federal government’s carbon price, declared constitutional by the Supreme Court of Canada on March 25, is an important step, but it is not enough to decarbonize the economy. Such a deep transformation also requires a set of legislative and regulatory mechanisms to put in place the conditions necessary to ensure the best use of the tens of billions of dollars of annual public and private investments necessary to move to a carbon-free economy.</p>
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À lire aussi :
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-supreme-court-ruling-on-national-carbon-pricing-means-for-the-fight-against-climate-change-157675">What the Supreme Court ruling on national carbon pricing means for the fight against climate change</a>
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<p>We are both climate experts. Normand is a professor of physics and the scientific director of the Trottier Energy Institute, and he participated in the creation of the Canadian Institute for Climate Choices. Corinne chairs the High Council on Climate in France and is a member of the Climate Change Committee in the United Kingdom. She is the author of three synthesis reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).</p>
<h2>Five elements of governance</h2>
<p>Bill C-12 proposes five elements of governance aimed at providing a framework for the decarbonization of the Canadian economy:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Setting greenhouse gas emission targets at five-year intervals (milestone years), between 2030 and 2050; these targets must be established at least five years before the milestone year.</p></li>
<li><p>The obligation for the minister responsible for climate change mitigation and adaptation to submit a plan to achieve intermediate objectives at least five years before each milestone year.</p></li>
<li><p>The requirement that the minister report two years before the milestone year an inventory on the progress of the plan.</p></li>
<li><p>The creation of a committee responsible for providing advice on sectoral measures and strategies to be followed.</p></li>
<li><p>The requirement that the commissioner of the environment and sustainable development review the effectiveness of the measures deployed by the Government of Canada to achieve the objectives.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>Yet, the bill leaves out crucial elements that could ensure long-term planning and, just as important, provide accountability that would consider all actions and plans aimed at achieving climate objectives.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Oil refinery" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393624/original/file-20210406-13-wt8lbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393624/original/file-20210406-13-wt8lbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393624/original/file-20210406-13-wt8lbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393624/original/file-20210406-13-wt8lbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393624/original/file-20210406-13-wt8lbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393624/original/file-20210406-13-wt8lbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393624/original/file-20210406-13-wt8lbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Carbon dioxide emissions from oil refineries topped 16 million tonnes in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Inspiration from best practices</h2>
<p>Bill C-12 could include a target as early as 2025 or 2026, and extend the announcement of subsequent targets from five to 12 years. The U.K., which has been one of the most successful countries in reaching its climate targets, <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/CCC-Insights-Briefing-4-Advising-on-the-level-of-the-UKs-carbon-budgets.pdf">sets five-year carbon budgets, 12 years in advance</a>. <a href="https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/strategie-nationale-bas-carbone-snbc#scroll-nav__3">This is also France’s approach</a>.</p>
<p>This long horizon makes it easier for both the public and the private sector to plan investments because it reduces uncertainty. It also make it easier to incorporate targets into long-term strategic plans, reducing the cost of transformation and increasing the likelihood of success.</p>
<p>Equally important, <a href="https://sciencebrief.org/uploads/reviews/ScienceBrief_Review_ADVISORY_BODIES_Mar2021.pdf">independent expert committees</a> are increasingly used, including in the U.K. and France, to support long-term government climate policies. The committees that have the most impact are composed of experts, are free to speak publicly, have few members and are endowed with a staff and a dedicated research budget.</p>
<p>Their mandate is to assess the effectiveness of the measures in place and the plausibility of the scenarios and plans proposed by the government. They must also make recommendations based on evidence, that is, on the direct experience gained both in the country and abroad, and not only from theoretical models as to the orientations, measures and plans to be put in place or to be implemented. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Flames seen on a mountain at night" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394889/original/file-20210413-19-1ip5tyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394889/original/file-20210413-19-1ip5tyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394889/original/file-20210413-19-1ip5tyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394889/original/file-20210413-19-1ip5tyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394889/original/file-20210413-19-1ip5tyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394889/original/file-20210413-19-1ip5tyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394889/original/file-20210413-19-1ip5tyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wildfires near Penticton, B.C., like this one on Christie Mountain, put thousands on evacuation alert in August 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To be heard in Canada, this committee should have direct access to Parliament, with the obligation for the government to respond to its annual reports each year. (The current bill requires the minister to respond, but without passing by Parliament.)</p>
<p>The role of this committee differs fundamentally from that of the <a href="https://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/mr_20180327_e_42893.html">commissioner of the environment and sustainable development</a>. The latter’s mandate is to look back and take stock of the programs deployed and their performance indicators. On the contrary, the committee of experts must look to the future and analyze the plausibility of the scenarios and the relevance of the plans, taking into account all the actions undertaken across the country as much by governments as by private actors.</p>
<p>In doing so, the expert committee has the freedom to engage with government and other stakeholders, drawing on best practices and evidence, to keep pace and ensure climate goals are met.</p>
<p>The advisory mandates and structure of the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/net-zero-emissions-2050/advisory-body.html">Net-Zero Advisory Group</a>, included in the bill, and of the <a href="https://climatechoices.ca">Canadian Institute for Climate Choices</a> (CICC), created by Environment and Climate Change Canada two years ago, are insufficient to offer the required accountability that is expected from a fully independent expert committee.</p>
<p>The CICC lacks a legally guaranteed existence, has no access to Parliament and has a cumbersome governance structure, involving too many experts. It is without the agility and bite to impose accountability. The same goes for the advisory group whose mandate, defined by Bill C-12, is essentially turned internally, in direct support of the minister, but without the independence necessary for public, critical and constructive work.</p>
<h2>The need to reinforce key elements</h2>
<p>The scope of Bill C-12 could be enhanced by raising the status of the commissioner of the environment and sustainable development to an independent officer of Parliament, therefore reporting directly to Parliament. It should report annually on progress made in the year, rather than every five years, starting in 2022. </p>
<p>Bill C-12 could place the advisory group under the aegis of the commissioner of the environment and sustainable development, rather than under the authority of the minister, to enhance its independence and efficiency by bringing the (past) assessment closer to the (future) prospective.</p>
<p>Members should be chosen for their expertise in related issues (including climate science, energy, economics, agriculture and land). This relatively small group should be supported by its own technical team. Finally, the government could seek the advice of this group before deciding on the five-year targets in order to benefit from their expertise and to ensure the coherence of all its policies.</p>
<p>It is not too late to make the necessary changes to the climate governance structure proposed by Bill C-12, building on the <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/insights-briefings-sharing-the-uk-approach-to-addressing-climate-change/">experiences of other countries</a>. To do this, it is essential that the Canadian government recognize the importance of providing citizens and investors with long-term predictability. It must also recognize the importance of a critical, rich and strong voice, able to draw on <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/CCC-Insights-Briefing-2-The-Climate-Change-Committee.pdf">best practices</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158863/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Normand Mousseau is a bad member of the Canadian Institute for Climate Choices (CICC). His position here is his own and does not necessarily reflect that of CICC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Corinne Le Quéré Chairs the French High council on climate and is a member of the UK Climate Change Committee. Her position here is her own and does not necessarily reflect that of these groups. Corinne Le Quéré receives funding from the UK Royal Society and from European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement Nos. 821003 (4C) and 776810 (VERIFY). </span></em></p>Bill C-12 is a step in the right direction, but its not enough to meet Canada’s goal for a decarbonized economy.Normand Mousseau, Directeur de l’Institut de l’énergie Trottier, Polytechnique Montréal et Professeur de physique, Université de MontréalCorinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor of Climate Change Science, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1534622021-02-23T14:56:04Z2021-02-23T14:56:04ZWhy efforts to clean up charcoal production in sub-Saharan Africa aren’t working<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385503/original/file-20210222-13-17a4syk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Charcoal is an essential fuel for most parts of sub-Saharan Africa</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Charcoal_before_pick-up.jpg">AnandievanZyl/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Charcoal is an essential source of domestic fuel in many sub-Saharan African countries. Overall, the region produces 65% of the world’s charcoal, with Nigeria, Ethiopia and Ghana being the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19376812.2020.1846133">top three producers</a>. The charcoal sector employs about 40 million people in the region. Smallholders are responsible for most charcoal production, and it’s an important safety net for most producers.</p>
<p>The average person in sub-Saharan Africa consumes 0.69 cubic metres of charcoal per year. That’s 2.5 times more than the amount of wood fuel an average person consumes globally. </p>
<p>Producing charcoal involves burning wood under anaerobic conditions – when too much oxygen is supplied, the wood turns to ash. Typically, the production technique – earth kilns, used by smallholders – cannot properly regulate the oxygen supply, leading to inefficiencies. Simply put, they use more wood to produce little charcoal and emit more emissions compared to emerging carbonisation techniques. </p>
<p>As a result charcoal production is one of the main drivers of savannah and forest degradation in sub-Saharan Africa.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, demand for charcoal is rising. This has led to governments attempting to formalise the sector. One such step has involved enabling investments from large-scale companies. For example, in Ghana, the government leases out forest reserves to private companies to produce wood on plantations for conversion to charcoal. Another step involves introducing punitive policies. For example, in Malawi, the state forbids smallholders from producing charcoal without permits, with noncompliance leading to fines and up to ten years imprisonment. </p>
<p>I conducted <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19376812.2020.1846133">a review</a> of charcoal production and recent developments in sub-Saharan Africa.</p>
<p>It’s not clear that formalisation tackles challenges at the grassroots. For the charcoal sector to transition towards sustainability, I argue for the adoption of integrated approaches that pay attention to the social needs of actors while tackling environmental concerns. This should preferably be done under the banner of ‘carbon-neutral charcoal’.</p>
<h2>Efforts to formalise the sector</h2>
<p>In recent years, many countries, including Ghana and Malawi, have tried to formalise the charcoal sector.</p>
<p>Their reasons for doing so have varied, and have included the desire to:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>increase revenue from charcoal to state governments through taxes, and </p></li>
<li><p>reduce the perceived environmental impacts of charcoal production. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>The consequences of these endeavours are contested.</p>
<p>For example, in Ghana, in a bid to promote sustainable charcoal production, the government enabled foreign investors to acquire large tracts of fertile land for wood production.</p>
<p>The effect was that many smallholders have been displaced from their lands and means of production. </p>
<p>The idea behind introducing taxes is also unclear. For example, in Ghana the government <a href="https://www.modernghana.com/news/831002/the-woes-of-the-forest-of-northern-ghana-a-nation.html">imposed taxes</a> on smallholder charcoal producers with no clear plan on how these taxes would lead to sanitising the charcoal sector or support the countryside’s development. </p>
<p>Malawi has imposed outright bans on charcoal production without permits. This has removed a crucial safety net for smallholders, forcing them into poverty. </p>
<p>In addition to the fact that many interventions have failed to work, it’s also become clear that smallholders employ several strategies to subvert sanctions instituted by the state government. These include using illegal means to transport charcoal and paying bribes to law enforcement agencies. <a href="http://www.kenyaforestservice.org/documents/redd/Charcoal%20Value%20Chain%20Analysis.pdf">Kenya</a> is one country where this happens.</p>
<p>There is also ample evidence that prohibitions such as banning the production and transport of charcoal don’t work in many countries in the region because of weak institutions. </p>
<p>Given that the current path towards formalisation is failing, what alternatives can governments adopt?</p>
<h2>Cleaning the charcoal sector</h2>
<p>Making the charcoal sector less carbon intensive is desirable. But the current pathways chosen by various governments aren’t sustainable because they deprive many poor farmers of the means of their survival. </p>
<p>I identify a number of steps that could be taken.</p>
<p>First, national governments need to recognise and improve traditional leaders’ current role in allocating trees for charcoal production in the countryside. This approach has been in place for decades in countries, including Ghana.</p>
<p>It has its flaws. For example, there is no proper accountability for how traditional leaders apply revenues raised from allocating wood resources. But it has nevertheless helped sustain the population of valuable tree species in the savannah, including the shea tree (<em>Vitellaria paradoxa</em>) and the African locust bean tree (<em>Parkia biglobosa</em>) in Ghana. </p>
<p>Second, governments need to invest in the countryside, creating awareness and facilitating green charcoal businesses and associations. This way smallholders could produce charcoal from sustainable woodlots that are harvested in rotation. </p>
<p>Efforts also need to be made to address some of the structural challenges along the charcoal commodity chain, including the skewed distribution of profits to traders and merchants. The creation of cooperatives could help by strengthening the bargaining position of smallholder charcoal producers. </p>
<p>Finally, improving charcoal production at the grassroots level will allow governments in the region to tap into the growing global demand for sustainable charcoal in international markets, while contributing to climate change mitigation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153462/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eric Kumeh Mensah does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Attempts to formalise charcoal production have been largely unsuccessful.Eric Kumeh Mensah, Doctoral Researcher, University of HohenheimLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1551212021-02-11T01:09:47Z2021-02-11T01:09:47ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: David Littleproud on The Nationals and net zero<p>Scott Morrison has indicated he wants to embrace a 2050 target of net-zero emissions. That, however, requires bringing the Nationals on board, and a vocal group in that party is fighting a fierce rearguard action.</p>
<p>The Nationals deputy leader David Littleproud, who is Minister for Agriculture, is sympathetic to the target - so long as there is a credible path to get there, which won’t disadvantage rural Australians.</p>
<p>In this podcast Littleproud says he believes the pathway could be settled this year. </p>
<p>“That’s not in my remit. But there is a hope to accelerate that and to make sure that we can provide that [pathway] as quickly as we can. The money’s been set aside for a lot of that work and some of that work’s already been completed.”</p>
<p>As for that Nationals, “our position is we want to see the plan first. Our party room hasn’t got to a juncture of dismissing it. We want to see what the plan is and who pays for it.”</p>
<p>Asked whether agriculture would have to be exempted for the Nationals to sign up to the 2050 target, Littleproud says, “Well, with respect to ag, I think it cane be part of the solution”. </p>
<p>On the ANZ’s announcement this week it would stop lending to Australia’s biggest coal port, the Port of Newcastle, Littleproud is scathing:</p>
<p>“Well, they’re a pathetic joke… We had a banking royal commission and here we are, a bank telling the Australian people about how society should run. That is not their role. Their role is to provide capital.” </p>
<h2>Transcript (edited for clarity)</h2>
<p><strong>Michelle Grattan:</strong> As pressure mounts on the Morrison government from the election of the Biden administration and the approach of the Glasgow climate conference at the end of this year, Scott Morrison is indicating he wants to move to embracing a 2050 target of net zero emissions. But one hurdle is a strong and vocal group in the Nationals, which is led by former Resources Minister Matt Canavan, who’s fighting with some of his colleagues tooth and nail to stop the new target with the leadership of Michael McCormack always under pressure. The argument within the Nationals has the potential to get out of hand. David Littleproud, the Nationals deputy leader and Agriculture Minister is sympathetic to the target, provided there is a credible path to get there and one that won’t disadvantage. Agriculture Minister David Littleproud joins us today.</p>
<p>David Littleproud, like Scott Morrison, you’ve indicated that embracing the 2050 target must come with a plan for achieving it. In your view, is it possible that plan could be ticked off this year or will it take beyond this year?</p>
<p><strong>David Littleproud:</strong> Well, we hope so, but that’ll depend on the advancement that technology has been able to, to verify the veracity of the technology that we’re putting up. It’s important that it does have standing and does have currency because we want to go to the world and we want to to the Australian public with the scientific basis of that technology so that there is understanding, there is belief in it, and we then have a trajectory. So that’s really what the government has been working and we’ve already started that. I know that we’ve Angus Taylor already had 14 million dollars set aside to start a programme around trying to measure soil carbon. I’ve already started a biodiversity stewardship programme with 34 million dollars, so a lot of the legwork has already started. But we have to go with the science. We have to understand that. We have to be honest. This is what people want. They want honesty, not platitudes. And that’s what this climate debate has become. And I think it’s time now that we level with the Australian people. The Australian Labor Party tried to go through the back door at the last election by saying that they wanted it and that zero by 2050 but couldn’t tell anyone how they going to get there, who was going to pay.</p>
<p>So, it’s time for us to be honest with the Australian public. And I think the prime minister is right in what he’s saying is that we need to have that plan and be honest with the Australian people. There’s about 130 nations from around the world who’ve signed up to net zero by 2050, but only 16 of them have a pathway that they have articulated to the world and how they’d get there.</p>
<p>So, this is a dangerous thing why we want to compare ourselves with other nations. The most important thing is Australians, that we’re honest and that’s what this government is doing in tackling this issue.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> So just to be absolutely clear, the technology pathway could be ticked off by the end of the year.</p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Well, that’s not in my remit. But there is a hope to accelerate that and to make sure that we can provide that as quickly as we can. The money’s been set aside for a lot of that work and some of that work’s already been completed. So obviously, Mr Taylor will be leading that. And it’s important that that he is able to finish with that work as quickly as he can. But I think the Prime Minister’s made it very clear that we will be honest with the Australian public about that pathway, how we get there and who pays for it.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Now, would agriculture have to be exempted for the Nationals to sign up to the 2050 target, or are the better ways of protecting agriculture?</p>
<p><strong>LP:</strong> Well, with respect to Ag, I think it can be part of the solution, particularly when you look at soil carbon and that’s around.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> So not exempted. Not exempt.</p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Well, not unless I mean, you’ve got to understand that Ag has already done a lot of the heavy lifting. So, there shouldn’t be there shouldn’t be any more disadvantage for agriculture. And that’s where the science and technology can, can mean that it can play its role in making sure that it’s, it’s beneficial to agriculture. And agriculture plays its part. But our farmers should be rewarded for that and for their stewardship. We have, have met Kyoto and we’ve also going to meet Paris and beat Paris predicated on what farmers did back in the late 1990s when we signed up to Kyoto. Farmers across Australia had much of their, their property rights stripped away from them. They weren’t financially rewarded for it personally. State governments were, and they put it in their pockets now that governments of all persuasions and that’s my job and the other mob. So, we’ve all got to put a hand up on that. I think that farmers should be rewarded for the stewardship and the role that they play. And this is an opportunity to do it, to do it with science and technology. And I think that is the roadmap that I think even the agriculture sector wants to play a part of as well.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> So, you think there are benefits for farmers? Financial benefits in a more robust climate policy.</p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Ah definitely and I think when you’ve got carbon farming now already in place, that’s a blunt instrument. It’s a blunt instrument of just abating carbon. What I’ve tried to institute is around improvement of biodiversity as well, because we’ve got a perverse outcome with our carbon farming programmes at the moment, whereby passive investments are moving into south west Queensland, buying up large tracts of land for, for very cheap prices and locking it up and throwing away the key. There’s no active management of the property and there’s perverse impacts around pests and weeds that emanate from it. And there’s also an emergency service risk for fire personnel to get in and out of these properties because they become overgrown and the roads that access them. And we’re also losing families that would otherwise be on these properties.</p>
<p>So, it’s had a perverse outcome, the carbon farming. So, we should make it more sophisticated, not just to abate carbon, but for and reward him for an improvement in biodiversity. And within much of the programmes, you can pay that premium if you can prove to improve, if you can demonstrate the improvement in biodiversity. And you also then have the opportunity to market your product globally with a with a seal, a biodiversity seal that should have international recognition. We’re leading the world in trying to do this. And that’s why that biodiversity stewardship programme, the 34 million so I’ve got ANU to work on, is so, so important in this. Is this an important part in rewarding our farmers not just for carbon abatement and improvement in biodiversity, but they can also then market their product around the world as being the very best, the gold standard in terms of environmental stewardship of their product, and that gives them a market advantage. Then if you look at the soil carbon piece of work that that that Angus Taylor is working on, that’s about trying to crack the code of measuring soil carbon and how much can be abated through soils and the management of farmers, what they would have to do to do that. And if you can measure it, because you have to measure these things for it to have currency not just here in Australia, but in international markets, if we can get that measurement down to around three dollars a hectare, then farmers get very excited about playing in that space. And there’s some preliminary work that also indicates that some of the management changes won’t just abate carbon and also improve some of their productivity.</p>
<p>So, this is exciting work that we’re trying to work towards that will incentivise farmers, reward them, let them play a part of it and not have a significant impact on the agricultural sector.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> So, given what you’re arguing, why are the Nationals so polarised on this issue? Is it basically of a sort of surrogate leadership issue or what’s driving people like Matt Canavan, for example?</p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Well, we are we are the last bastion of safety for regional Australia, because that’s all we represent. All we are saying is we want to see the plan. We want to understand the plan and the trajectory of how we would get there and who’s going to pay for it and what role, particularly regional Australia can play in it either through agriculture, but also looking at things like carbon capture storage for a lot of those coal fired power stations that I have four in my own electorate alone, that can reduce emissions because we’ve got to get back to first principles in this whole debate. The first principle is we’re trying to reduce emissions. So, when you walk or get the zealots out of the room and you start talking about, well, how do we do that? You can do that also not just through agriculture, but through carbon capture storage. That technology that the Biden administration is now signing up to with, with now what Australia has already started gives us an opportunity to prolong the life of our coal fired power stations and, and keep those jobs, keep cheaper energy for our manufacturing sector and reduce emissions. And the initial studies into this show that potentially could be up to 90 per cent of emissions.</p>
<p>So why wouldn’t we back ourselves? And if we get back to the first principle of reducing emissions, then we should look at every technology. We shouldn’t, we shouldn’t, we shouldn’t put one industry and demonise it against another. If you can reduce emissions with technology. And that’s what the Nationals are saying. Let’s have let’s have a look at the plan. Let’s look at the technology. Let’s look at our mix, particularly in our regional communities in terms of economic makeup and how do we how do we preserve and protect them and transition jobs into new industries and protect the ones that are there while reducing emissions.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> But on the 2050 target, Matt Canavan and some of the others are saying, no way, whatever you do, they’re completely against that target. He’s repeated that position day after day.</p>
<p><strong>DL</strong>: And that’s his right that’s the beauty of democracy. But the National Party party room hasn’t got to that position yet. Our position is we want to see the plan first. Our party room hasn’t got to a juncture of dismissing it. We want to see what the plan is and who pays for it. If individuals want to want to have a different view within our party room, that’s a good thing. That’s what democracy should look like. We shouldn’t have a cookie cutter approach. I’m not I’m not fazed by that at all. I think Matt has been a warrior for obviously the causes that are dear to his heart. And that’s a good thing that we have those people in our democracy. We should actually try to promote that sort of thinking and diversity in our parliament rather than trying to stifle it just because a majority think another way. But ultimately, our party room will get to a position and we will, we will obviously define as a party room. And that’s what the Nationals will stick to. But we haven’t got to that because we haven’t seen the plan.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Now, you move around regional communities, rural communities a lot, obviously. What sort of views are coming to you from some farmers and others about climate change as an issue about the 2050 target from ordinary people?</p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Well, it’s, it’s not the thing that’s keeping him up at night. Obviously, they hear the noise. And I think this is the problem is the noise has been driven by, by the zealots from both sides rather than a mature conversation being able to be happen. And that’s what I think the Prime Minister tried to set out at the Press Club was let’s have that mature conversation about how we get there, investing in the best and brightest in the world here in Australia to come up with that trajectory through science and technology rather than just having ideological and philosophical debates that take the country nowhere. And this is the opportunity I think this is the environment that the PM is trying to set. And that’s where I think as a national party, that’s what we want to be part of. We want to be part of the conversation and advancing regional Australia to be part of the solution in this.</p>
<p>So what people are saying on the ground is they’re just concerned that they don’t want to be they don’t want to continue to be the ones that have to do all the heavy lifting for the conscience of people, particularly in metropolitan areas that do a significant amount of the polluting. We’re happy to be part of the solution, but we don’t want the cost to be a burden on us. And I think what they see is the opportunity to be part of that solution, to actually make sure that our regional economies are even stronger after this, if we use the technology and smarts and allow our agricultural sector to be part of it.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Now you were talking about coal before. Where’s the study up to into the feasibility of the new coal fired power station at Collinsville in Queensland? And do you believe such a project will ever get underway?</p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Well, I can’t give you an update that’s outside my remit as Angus, I understand, that a business case is being prepared now, but it should, it should get up if it stacks up. And that’s whether it’s coal, whether it’s anything else, it has to stack up and they have to have a proponent. So, in essence, we’ll obviously see what comes out of that business case. And then from there there’ll be further decisions made. But until you you’ve got a business case that stacks up, it’s very difficult to make any commentary on a proposal and in particular that one.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> And if it needs government support to stack up?</p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Well, again, you have to you have to see what the business case says and what extent those are decisions you can only make after you have the facts in front of you have the business case in front. You have a clear understanding of it. So, until then, obviously it’s on the table, but it’s not something until it can be stacked up is something that the government is going to pursue until such time as we see that business case. And that’s what any government should, should do. I mean, we’re spending Australian taxpayers’ money here, so we need to make sure that we’re spending it wisely. We’re getting bang for the buck and it stacks up.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Some of your colleagues in the coalition generally have been dismissive of those saying there won’t be new coal fired power stations in Australia. You don’t necessarily take that view.</p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Well, I don’t like to close my mind to anything because invariably it can come back to politics. So, I don’t draw a line in the sand on it or anything.</p>
<p>So, I think, you know, technology is taking the world to, to different levels. And it makes it, it makes it to a point where we’ve got to understand that that can change current thinking and current status quo. So, I think it’d be dangerous to say never. But again, it comes back to the cold, hard facts of stacking up.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> So, what’s your attitude to the ANZ decision to pull out of funding the Port of Newcastle, which is said to be the world’s biggest thermal coal terminal?</p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Well, they’re a pathetic joke. ANZ is really big as wanting to become the moral compass of this country. I mean, this is this is a bank that, in fact, copped hundreds of millions of fine because of the unconscionable conduct that they had with their own customers. I mean, we had a banking royal commission and here we are, a bank telling the Australian people about how society should run. That is not their role. Their role was to provide capital. They have they have a very, very significant part to play in our economy. It is a privileged position that they have. Their job is to provide capital. And it’s not for them to decide what is what is socially right in our society or not. That is the government’s responsibility. And we get told by the people every three years of the election. So their behaviour is disgraceful, that their role is to provide capital and to and to manage risk. That risk is about the ability to repay a loan. That is the extent of which their, their function in our in our economy should, should rest with and be limited to. But for them and and these highly well-paid ideological CEOs and board members to go down this track shows the direction of that organisation is well out of step with what is the expectation that and the role that they play in our economy. It is disgraceful.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> So, are you writing off the fact that they may think financially the risk is just too great in the long run, that for them it’s not a question of moralising, but money?</p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> No, it’s moralising. When you’ve got another commercial bank seeing the commercial value in a legal business that is doing nothing wrong, that is going about their lawful business within a society, for another bank to take it up shows that this is just moral posturing by ANZ and this is just about them trying to, to sweep away the wrongs that they have perpetrated on many Australians in the past. It’s disgraceful. It’s pitiful. And ANZ, I mean, their board really has no teeth at all if they’re allowing their CEO to run away with this, really, ANZ really has no future in my mind playing in our in our society.</p>
<p>They have a privileged position. Their job is simply to provide capital. I get if someone wants to invest and they are investing through their own capital in investment schemes, you get to make those decisions. But their job in our society in this part is to lend money. And that is that is a very privileged position that they have been given.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Now, you’re deputy leader of the Nationals and often touted as a future leader, critics of the Nationals believes that the party is too subservient to Scott Morrison, especially some of the internal critics. Is this a fair point or can you name some issues where the Nationals have, in fact, stood up and prevailed?</p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Yeah, I think, I think we’re always going to have the critics. They’ve written us off for 100 years, but we still keep kicking. The reality is this. You only have to look back. In the last 12 months, we as a government were going to appeal the live trade decision that was handed down that rightfully denigrated what Joe Ludwig and the Labor Party did in shutting down the live cattle export industry in Indonesia overnight. And we as a National Party stood strong and said, these are our people. These are the people we represent. They are the victims in this. We do not need to put them through any further legal pain. We need to pay up and get out of their way. The National Party was able to achieve that.</p>
<p>We also stood very strongly making sure that the Northern Territory kept two members of parliament. Sam McMahon, the senator, our National Party senator, and they led that from the start. That was important, even though the two Labor seats, we could see that the representation to people in the Northern Territory, regional people, was going to be diminished. So, we stood by our values and principles, even under their Labor seats. The National Party stood by that and we made sure that in the end we were able to get through that there will still remain two Northern Territory seats. That’s what the National Party has done. Now, whether Michael runs around and beats his chest as loud as what people would like. That’s, that’s for them to decide. But I think his record in leading the National Party and what we’ve been able to achieve, particularly just in those two to start with those two points, shows and demonstrates that we are effective. And when we hunt as a mob as the Nats, then, you know, our coalition friends have to listen because this is a brutal game of politics predicated by numbers. And until one side gets to 76 on their own, then effectively, if you’re in coalition, the other, your coalition partner has a role to play.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Of course, sometimes that you need a good dog to keep the mob together, it seems.</p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Well, I think as I just articulated just on those two points, we haven’t been doing too bad.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Do you believe the Nationals have to change or broaden their pitch as you move to the next election and indeed beyond?</p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> I think we need to evolve with our communities that we represent because regional Australia and I think this is important for metropolitan people understand we’re not people that sit out on hay bales with straw between our teeth. We’re running some of the most sophisticated, technologically sophisticated businesses in the world. We are very, very sophisticated in terms of even the way our communities are run, in terms of, you know, all the all the amenities that you have in capital cities. We just don’t have to put up with congestion and, and the proximity of people being all around us. And so, we are evolving. And I think the National Party needs to understand that a lot of our, our constituency is in urbanised areas. It’s not our, our voters, not just the traditional elastic sided boot wearer anymore. It’s also those in in large regional centres that we’ve got to appeal to. And, and that’s why we’re making considered decisions about things like climate change to make sure that those people, their jobs are protected no matter what. And they are not the victims of, of policies that are being predicated that come about by our cost.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Just on that question of the large regional centres when you get into those centres. People say that there are jobs potentially available and yet there doesn’t seem to be the labour to fill those jobs. What more can be done to attract people to these areas and to deal with maybe the, the blocks, for example, the lack of rental accommodation has been mentioned?</p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Well, I’m actually sitting in Dalby as we speak, and I can tell you there’s a rental shortage here. We have we are seeing families from Melbourne, from Brisbane and the Gold Coast get out of these cities to get away. And I think COVID has awoken people, that it might be a better lifestyle, might be a bit safer out in regional areas than more is in congested capital cities. So, we’re seeing a housing shortage just at the moment. But, but that normally fixes itself very quickly because we’ve got an abundance of land, but we do have issues around skill shortages. I mean, most of the shires, I’ve got 17 LGAs, local government areas across Maranoa, and most of those have an employment unemployment rate with a three or two in front of it. So, we are actually starved of skilled labour, not just seasonal labour. And that challenge is about how these people and how Australians are slowly awakening to the fact that the opportunities out here, I think we need to think about what are those incentives that we do provide and we do provide them already. I think there’s over 6000 dollars that can, you can get if you if you’re on unemployment benefits and you move to move to take up a job in another city, particularly regional areas. So, we’re providing those incentives. You can’t, you can’t force people to move. So, it’s about Australians understanding the lifestyle, the career pathways, the career opportunities that the quality education, the quality health services that you get in regional Australia.</p>
<p>In fact, I’m probably better and I’m safer in in my hometown near Warwick. If something happened to me, I’ve got I’ve got a hospital only minutes away from me that will look after me. And if it needs any serious attention, I’ll be on a chopper within 20 minutes and I’ll be on the on the roof of the, the main hospitals in Brisbane. And I won’t be sitting in an ambulance on a ramp downstairs. I go straight through and get looked after. OK, so we have we’re probably better health care facilities and, and opportunities in regional Australia than what we do in some of these cities. To be candid.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> What about things like the processing of visas? There seems to be a great hold up for people who’ve got a legitimate reason to be here, to stay here, to be given a visa, and they’d get into some of these areas. And yet the bureaucracy seems to be very slow on that front.</p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Well, the primary responsibility of any government is to keep its people safe. The world changed after 9/11. And our job is to make sure that anyone that comes to this country, they are they are thoroughly checked out.</p>
<p>It is a privilege to live in this country. And we need to make sure that whatever checks need to be required are done and done thoroughly and appropriately. So obviously, we’d like that accelerated where for those that do want to come here and can contribute to our nation, but we’ve got to make sure that we never lose sight of that first principle of keeping Australians safe.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> But these people are often here already.</p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Yeah, but obviously there are further, there are further processes that need to take place, not just in terms of security, but also financial means in making sure that they can contribute and they won’t be a burden on the nation. So, it is a complex area and it’s not as simplistic as people think. But obviously we would like to see and we would love to see more of them migrate to regional areas. But that’s obviously something that the government is working through. And I’m sure the immigration minister is working as quickly as you can to speed those processes up.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> David Littleproud. Thank you very much for talking with us today and giving us your insights on a range of issues.</p>
<p><em>This transcript was issued by David Littleproud’s office.</em></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/politics-with-michelle-grattan/id703425900?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233721/original/file-20180827-75984-1gfuvlr.png" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL2F1L3BvZGNhc3RzL3BvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbWljaGVsbGUtZ3JhdHRhbi5yc3M"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation-4/politics-with-michelle-grattan"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> <a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/Politics-with-Michelle-Grattan-p227852/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://radiopublic.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-WRElBZ"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/5NkaSQoUERalaLBQAqUOcC"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237984/original/file-20180925-149976-1ks72uy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" width="268" height="82"></a> </p>
<h2>Additional audio</h2>
<p><a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score/Lee_Rosevere_-_The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score_-_10_A_List_of_Ways_to_Die">A List of Ways to Die</a>, Lee Rosevere, from Free Music Archive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155121/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan discusses the National party's feelings towards a 2050 carbon neutral goal with deputy leader David Littleproud.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1513822021-01-12T19:09:37Z2021-01-12T19:09:37ZNet-zero, carbon-neutral, carbon-negative … confused by all the carbon jargon? Then read this<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375826/original/file-20201218-15-1dm49fw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C0%2C4000%2C3149&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Countries around the world are <a href="https://eciu.net/netzerotracker">taking steps</a> to tackle climate change and become net-zero emitters of carbon dioxide (CO₂) by 2050. Most recently, Joe Biden’s presidential election win means the US is the latest nation to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/08/joe-bidens-move-to-net-zero-emissions-will-leave-australia-in-the-coal-dust">adopt the goal</a>. </p>
<p>So what does net-zero mean? Completely eliminating all greenhouse gas emissions? Not necessarily. The “net” part of net-zero means we can still emit CO₂, as long as we offset (or remove) those emissions from the atmosphere by the same amount in other places. </p>
<p>You might have heard a lot of talk about “going net-zero” in the media lately. <a href="https://theconversation.com/china-just-stunned-the-world-with-its-step-up-on-climate-action-and-the-implications-for-australia-may-be-huge-147268">China</a> recently announced it intends to achieve the goal by 2060. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-energy-idUSKCN1TS30B">France</a>, the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-becomes-first-major-economy-to-pass-net-zero-emissions-law">United Kingdom</a> and <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/climate-change-and-government/emissions-reduction-targets/about-our-emissions">New Zealand</a> will go net-zero by 2050. In Australia, all states and territories have a <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/nt-puts-australia-on-track-for-net-zero-climate-target/">net-zero strategy</a> and the federal government is under pressure to make a national commitment.</p>
<p>You might also have heard references to “zero emissions”, “low emissions” and going “carbon-neutral” So let’s get clear on what all these terms mean in practice.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Loy Yang power station at night" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375827/original/file-20201218-23-1cpcps5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375827/original/file-20201218-23-1cpcps5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375827/original/file-20201218-23-1cpcps5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375827/original/file-20201218-23-1cpcps5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375827/original/file-20201218-23-1cpcps5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375827/original/file-20201218-23-1cpcps5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375827/original/file-20201218-23-1cpcps5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many of Australia’s peers have adopted net-zero emissions targets.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Getting to grips with net-zero</h2>
<p>It’s not just countries that can produce net-zero emissions. The term can also apply to a state, city, company or even a single building.</p>
<p>Under a net-zero scenario, emissions are still being generated but they’re offset by the same amount elsewhere. Examples of offset activities include planting trees to absorb CO₂ or using other natural ecosystems to increase carbon stored in the biosphere. </p>
<p>The term “carbon-neutral” is sometimes used instead of net-zero, and they broadly mean the same thing. There are also two specific categories of carbon-neutral technologies that are relevant here:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>a process that generates CO₂ in a short-term cycle which does not add to global warming. An example of this is <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/renewable-energy-sources-and-climate-change-mitigation/bioenergy/">bioenergy</a>, where CO₂ is initially absorbed by organic material, then released on conversion to energy. Overall, emissions are stable and there is no net increase in CO₂.</p></li>
<li><p>a process that generates CO₂ but captures and sequesters (stores) it, rather than releasing it to the atmosphere. An example of this is a coal-fired power plant fitted with carbon capture and storage technology.</p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Sugar cane in front of electricity infrastructure" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375828/original/file-20201218-15-aoz9od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375828/original/file-20201218-15-aoz9od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375828/original/file-20201218-15-aoz9od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375828/original/file-20201218-15-aoz9od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375828/original/file-20201218-15-aoz9od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375828/original/file-20201218-15-aoz9od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375828/original/file-20201218-15-aoz9od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bioenergy is a carbon-neutral technology.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Don’t get confused with these terms</h2>
<p>To understand the term “net-zero emissions”, we must also understand what it is not. It should not be confused with the following related, but separate, concepts: </p>
<p><strong>Zero emissions:</strong> this refers to a process where no CO₂ is released at all. In fact, in our current global mining and manufacturing system, no technology produces zero emissions.</p>
<p>Technologies such as solar panels and wind energy are often said to be zero-emissions but technically, they’re not. They have what are known as “embedded emissions” – those created in manufacturing the technology. However wind and solar produce no <em>ongoing</em> emissions after installation, unlike fossil fuel energy.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/china-just-stunned-the-world-with-its-step-up-on-climate-action-and-the-implications-for-australia-may-be-huge-147268">China just stunned the world with its step-up on climate action – and the implications for Australia may be huge</a>
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<p><strong>Carbon-negative:</strong> This means removing CO₂ from the atmosphere, or sequestering more CO₂ than is emitted. This might include a bioenergy process with carbon capture and storage.</p>
<p><strong>Low emissions:</strong> Generating greenhouse gases at a lower rate than business as usual. Examples include switching from coal-fired to gas-fired power to generate the same amount of electricity, but with fewer emissions.</p>
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<img alt="Wind farm in Western Australia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375829/original/file-20201218-17-1vne4q0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375829/original/file-20201218-17-1vne4q0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375829/original/file-20201218-17-1vne4q0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375829/original/file-20201218-17-1vne4q0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375829/original/file-20201218-17-1vne4q0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375829/original/file-20201218-17-1vne4q0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375829/original/file-20201218-17-1vne4q0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wind energy produces no ongoing CO2 emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>OK, back to net-zero</h2>
<p>There are a few key ways to move to net-zero emissions, which are reflected in most national plans:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>drastically reduce or eliminate the use of fossil fuels in the energy sector (including transport)</p></li>
<li><p>improve efficiency and/or develop new technology in other sectors generating emissions but unable to easily reduce them, such as manufacturing and agriculture</p></li>
<li><p>invest in bio-sequestration (also known as reforestation or tree-planting) and carbon-negative technologies to offset any continuing or unavoidable emissions.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>No technology or quantity of trees planted could offset the emissions currently generated globally. That’s why nearly every net-zero plan includes first reducing, and eventually replacing, fossil fuels. Fossil fuels could be used to achieve net-zero with offsets or carbon capture and storage, but in many cases this is not actually the most cost-effective or practical pathway to net-zero.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-morrison-government-wants-to-suck-co-out-of-the-atmosphere-here-are-7-ways-to-do-it-144941">The Morrison government wants to suck CO₂ out of the atmosphere. Here are 7 ways to do it</a>
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<p>Achieving only the first two points would not take the world to net-zero. Carbon-negative approaches – removing CO₂ from the atmosphere – will <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-2/">also be needed</a>. </p>
<p>Most national plans achieve this through land management techniques such as reforestation. However the amount of CO₂ offset through natural carbon-negative solutions can be difficult to measure. Additionally the long-term delivery of the carbon offsets cannot always be guaranteed – for example, a replanted forest may die or be <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/21/summers-bushfires-released-more-carbon-dioxide-than-australia-does-in-a-year#:%7E:text=Australia's%20devastating%20bushfire%20season%20is,according%20to%20a%20government%20estimate.&text=It%20is%20estimated%2096%25%20of,absorbed%20in%20regrowth%20by%202019">burnt in a bushfire</a> releasing CO₂ back to the atmosphere.</p>
<p>Other more engineered solutions can also remove CO₂ from the atmosphere. They include the use of <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10643389.2010.507980">biochar</a> – a charcoal-like material added to soil. It <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-morrison-government-wants-to-suck-co-out-of-the-atmosphere-here-are-7-ways-to-do-it-144941">promotes microbial activity</a> and soil clumps which prevents organic plant matter breaking down and releasing carbon. But this method is still <a href="https://theconversation.com/dishing-the-dirt-australias-move-to-store-carbon-in-soil-is-a-problem-for-tackling-climate-change-141656">not perfect</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A handful of biochar." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352422/original/file-20200812-14-1c2ur8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352422/original/file-20200812-14-1c2ur8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352422/original/file-20200812-14-1c2ur8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352422/original/file-20200812-14-1c2ur8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352422/original/file-20200812-14-1c2ur8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352422/original/file-20200812-14-1c2ur8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352422/original/file-20200812-14-1c2ur8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Biochar helps boost soil carbon stores.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>CO₂: problem or opportunity?</h2>
<p>Global progress on emissions reduction has been so slow that simply cutting emissions <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-4/">won’t avert</a> a climate catastrophe. </p>
<p>Even if the world manages to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, we may still blow our “carbon budget” – the amount of CO₂ that can be emitted if Earth’s temperature rise is to stay below <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">1.5°C this century</a>. So we must find ways to first eliminate emissions, then remove existing CO₂.</p>
<p>It is foreseeable Earth will one day rely on carbon-negative technologies that draw CO₂ from the air and stabilise it in useful products. For example, direct air carbon capture and storage (which is still under development) could one day <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-morrison-government-wants-to-suck-co-out-of-the-atmosphere-here-are-7-ways-to-do-it-144941">remove CO₂</a> and use it in products such as building materials and plastics.</p>
<p>Such a process would treat CO₂ as a valuable input material – turning Earth’s biggest problem into an opportunity for innovation.</p>
<p>The move towards net-zero is crucial to avoid a climate catastrophe. And the time to move is not tomorrow or “by 2050” – it’s now.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151382/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jessica Allen receives funding from the Australian Research Council investigating carbon negative technology development. </span></em></p>Zero emission? Carbon neutral? Carbon negative? What does it mean to achieve ‘net-zero’ emissions?Jessica Allen, Senior Lecturer and DECRA Fellow, University of NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1471912020-10-19T19:01:38Z2020-10-19T19:01:38ZThis is how universities can lead climate action<p>Universities are vital hubs of research and teaching on climate change. As large organisations, they also have significant emissions, which contribute to our climate crisis. Universities should therefore lead global action to limit climate change. How best can they do this? </p>
<p>It’s <a href="http://globalclimatechangeweek.com/">Global Climate Change Week</a>. This annual event aims to encourage universities – staff and students – to engage with each other, their communities and policymakers on climate change action and solutions. As organising committee members and academics working on climate change, we explore here what leadership in university-based climate action looks like. </p>
<p>The reasons to act are obvious. In Paris in 2015, the international community agreed to pursue all possible measures to <a href="https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf">limit the global temperature increase to 1.5°C</a> above pre-industrial levels. But current policies have us on track for an <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/">increase of about 3.6°C by 2100</a>. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-the-most-important-mission-for-universities-of-the-21st-century-139214">Climate change is the most important mission for universities of the 21st century</a>
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<p>The need to cut greenhouse gas emissions is urgent – the consequences of not doing so <a href="https://books.emeraldinsight.com/page/detail/The-Extinction-Curve/?k=9781800438279">catastrophic</a>.</p>
<h2>What university climate action looks like</h2>
<p>Universities are big consumers and emitters – <a href="https://theconversation.com/astronomers-create-40-more-carbon-emissions-than-the-average-australian-heres-how-they-can-be-more-environmentally-friendly-145643">some sectors more than others</a>. Universities also have the autonomy to make decisions on sustainability and are increasingly doing so, individually and collectively. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/astronomers-create-40-more-carbon-emissions-than-the-average-australian-heres-how-they-can-be-more-environmentally-friendly-145643">Astronomers create 40% more carbon emissions than the average Australian. Here's how they can be more environmentally friendly</a>
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<p>Many universities are basing their efforts on the <a href="http://ap-unsdsn.org/wp-content/uploads/University-SDG-Guide_web.pdf">UN Sustainable Development Goals</a>. Sustainability includes radically reducing carbon footprints. </p>
<p>Organisations like the <a href="https://www.universitiesforclimate.org/media-release/">International Universities Climate Alliance</a> and <a href="https://www.acts.asn.au/">Australasian Campuses Towards Sustainability</a> support such efforts. Campaigns like <a href="https://unfccc.int/climate-action/race-to-zero-campaign">Race to Zero</a>, <a href="https://countdown.ted.com/">Countdown</a> and the <a href="https://www.sdgaccord.org/climateletter#:%7E:text=The%20Global%20Universities%20and%20Colleges,Race%20to%20Zero%20by%20UNFCCC.&text=The%20aim%20is%20to%20get,and%2013%20(Climate%20Change).">Global Colleges and Universities Climate Letter</a> provide forums for institutions to commit formally to reducing emissions.</p>
<h2>Tasmania, a case study</h2>
<p>And what does this climate action look like on the ground? We’ll start with our university, the University of Tasmania – the case we know best.</p>
<p>The university recently <a href="https://www.timeshighereducation.com/student/best-universities/top-universities-climate-action">ranked third in the world</a> in the Times Higher Education university rankings for climate action. The rankings measure research on climate change, energy use and climate change adaptation. </p>
<p>Our university punches above its weight, with many <a href="https://climatefutures.org.au/">climate change</a> <a href="http://marinesocioecology.org/">research groups</a> and more <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">IPCC</a> authors than any other Australian university. Researchers in social sciences, law, education and humanities are also <a href="https://www.google.com.au/books/edition/Climate_Change_Criminology/n1raDwAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=0">influential in the study of climate change and its impacts</a>.</p>
<p>The University of Tasmania has <a href="https://www.utas.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/1243893/UTAS-GHG-Inventory-2019-FINAL.pdf">closely audited</a> and reduced emissions and <a href="https://www.utas.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/1240916/Website-2020-Offset-projects-2019.pdf">offset its remaining emissions</a>. <a href="https://www.climateactive.org.au/be-climate-active/certification">Certified carbon-neutral</a> since 2016, it’s one of only two Australian universities to achieve this status (the other is Charles Sturt University). </p>
<h2>Divesting from fossil fuels</h2>
<p>Fossil fuel divestment is a process of transition with three elements:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>negative screening – no new investments in fossil-fuel-related industries</p></li>
<li><p>positive screening – investment in renewable energy and ecologically sustainable industries</p></li>
<li><p>phased withdrawal of existing investments in fossil-fuel-related industries and activities. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>To mark Global Climate Change Week, the University of Tasmania has just <a href="https://www.utas.edu.au/communications/general-news/all-news/university-to-change-investment-strategy-to-support-delivery-of-a-zero-carbon-world">announced</a> it aims to divest from any fossil-fuel-exposed investments by the end of 2021. The university already has no direct shareholdings in fossil fuel companies. Its investment strategy will include positive screening, investing in companies that are working towards a zero-carbon economy and the UN Sustainable Development Goals.</p>
<p>Many universities are making divestment the core of their climate action. In Australia, <a href="https://theconversation.com/la-trobe-universitys-fossil-fuel-divestment-a-small-but-significant-step-60042">La Trobe started that trend in 2016</a>.</p>
<p>Globally, one of the largest divestment pushes has come from the University of California Berkley. In 2019, it <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-19/uc-fossil-fuel-divest-climate-change">announced</a> it would divest completely from fossil fuels in its US$126 billion investment portfolio and $70 billion pension fund. </p>
<p>Here in Australia, an <a href="https://www.unisuper.com.au/about-us/news/2020/06/26/our-response-to-market-forces-divestment-campaign-open-letter">ongoing campaign</a> is pushing the 450,000-member higher education superannuation fund, UniSuper, to divest from fossil fuel investments. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/want-to-know-if-the-paris-climate-deal-is-working-university-divestment-is-the-litmus-test-59263">Want to know if the Paris climate deal is working? University divestment is the litmus test</a>
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<h2>Generating power on campus</h2>
<p>Some universities are generating their own renewable power. </p>
<p>For example, Deakin University has <a href="https://www.deakin.edu.au/microgrid">developed an industrial-scale microgrid</a>: a 14.5 hectare solar energy farm with a 1 megawatt central battery. The project integrates rooftop solar panels and smaller batteries across the Waurn Ponds campus.</p>
<p>The University of Queensland has set up and maintains a <a href="https://stories.uq.edu.au/news/2020/warwick-solar-farm-powers-uq-100-cent-renewable/index.html">A$125 million solar farm</a> just outside Warwick to offset its annual electricity needs.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rPKZOIaeeGY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">UQ now offsets 100% of its electricity use with renewable generation.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-a-world-first-australian-university-builds-own-solar-farm-to-offset-100-of-its-electricity-use-142972">In a world first, Australian university builds own solar farm to offset 100% of its electricity use</a>
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<p>Monash is investing A$135 million in its <a href="https://www.monash.edu/net-zero-initiative">Net Zero initiative</a>. Already partly solar-powered, the university has committed to carbon-neutral infrastructure and operations by 2030. </p>
<p>UNSW <a href="https://www.sustainability.unsw.edu.au/our-plan/climate-action">plans</a> to expand its onsite solar generation and buy 100% renewable power for the remainder, reducing its emissions in line with keeping global warming under 1.5°C.</p>
<h2>Universities can and must do more</h2>
<p>Many universities have made a start, but they must be more ambitious as climate action leaders. All universities can and should take meaningful and visible action. </p>
<p>This Global Climate Change Week, students, staff, university communities, <a href="http://globalclimatechangeweek.com/about/">get informed</a>. Urge your university to divest from fossil fuels, use renewable energy and commit to achieving net zero emissions – soon. Organise your own campus sustainability initiative, or get active in your university’s existing one. </p>
<p>Only by acting to understand and reduce their own climate impacts can universities be credible climate leaders. Their role as platforms for climate change research and engaged political commentary, as well as sustainable institutional practices, makes them global exemplars on climate action. In this, universities are essential to all of our futures.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147191/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gabi Mocatta is on the organising committee of Global Climate Change Week</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob White is on the organising committee of Global Climate Change Week. </span></em></p>Universities are vital hubs of research and teaching on climate change and, as big organisations, produce significant emissions themselves. They should therefore lead action to limit climate change.Gabi Mocatta, Lecturer in Communication, Deakin University, and Research Fellow in Climate Change Communication, Climate Futures Programme, University of TasmaniaRob White, Professor of Criminology, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1430592020-07-22T14:01:19Z2020-07-22T14:01:19ZHydrogen isn’t the key to Britain’s green recovery – here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348884/original/file-20200722-32-ezuxei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C655%2C6000%2C3332&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/using-hydrogen-power-fuel-cells-h2-1332148916">Gotphotos/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The EU recently published its <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/energy_system_integration_strategy_.pdf">strategy</a> for delivering net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Alongside reducing the amount of energy consumed by buildings and industry, the appliances that currently rely on fossil fuels, like cars and domestic and industrial boilers, are to be replaced with electrical alternatives, for example batteries and heat pumps. </p>
<p>Where energy efficiency and electrification aren’t possible or cost effective, such as in heavy-duty transport (think trains and lorries), hydrogen fuel is expected to fill in these gaps.</p>
<p>But in the UK, a large number of organisations are touting hydrogen as key to our own efforts to reach net zero carbon emissions. <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/07/15/worlds-hydrogen-revolution-marvellous-chance-britain-does-not/">One recent headline blared</a>: “The hydrogen revolution is a marvellous chance for Britain, if it does not throw away the prize”.</p>
<p>Much of my 45-year career in industry and academia has been spent studying energy efficiency and power production and supply. I believe that hydrogen has a limited role in decarbonisation, and that businesses with a vested interest in promoting hydrogen are doing so at the expense of British consumers. </p>
<h2>Creating hydrogen fuel</h2>
<p>Hydrogen has, on the face of it, much appeal. It provides power and heat with just water as a byproduct. Natural gas, which currently fuels heating and cooking in <a href="https://www.energynetworks.org/assets/files/news/publications/GAS%20FAST%20FACT%20CARDS%20-%20ALL.pdf">23 million UK homes</a>, produces carbon dioxide (CO₂) when burned, thus obviously contributing to carbon emissions. </p>
<p>Hydrogen can also be delivered to buildings through the same pipes that currently deliver natural gas, and it can be stored for use when generation by wind and solar is limited. But it’s important to remember that hydrogen fuel, unlike natural gas, doesn’t exist in nature. It has to be manufactured.</p>
<p>Today, hydrogen is made from “reforming” fossil fuels. This involves using energy to convert fossil fuel into hydrogen and CO₂. To make the process carbon neutral, that CO₂ must be removed by carbon capture and storage (CCS).</p>
<p>An alternative to reforming is electrolysis. Here, water is cleaved into hydrogen and oxygen. This requires electricity and if this comes from renewables, then electrolysis delivers carbon-free “green hydrogen”, as it’s known. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A beaker of water is treated with electricity to produce hydrogen gas." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348883/original/file-20200722-24-1wpb0sw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348883/original/file-20200722-24-1wpb0sw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348883/original/file-20200722-24-1wpb0sw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348883/original/file-20200722-24-1wpb0sw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348883/original/file-20200722-24-1wpb0sw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348883/original/file-20200722-24-1wpb0sw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348883/original/file-20200722-24-1wpb0sw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Electrolysis of water can produce ‘green hydrogen’, but only if that electricity is zero carbon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/electrolysis-water-educational-chemistry-into-hydrogen-702044953">Haryigit/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But electrolysis costs much more than reforming, so fossil hydrogen with CCS will be the main route for production until this changes. That could be a decade or more, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/hydrogen_strategy.pdf">according to</a> the EU, and perhaps longer if natural gas prices <a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/Natural-Gas-Drops-To-25-Year-Low-As-Demand-Disintegrates.html">remain low</a>.</p>
<h2>Carbon-neutral homes</h2>
<p>Domestic households account for <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/digest-of-uk-energy-statistics-dukes">40% of all</a> natural gas use in the UK. A large portion of the electricity made from burning natural gas is consumed by households too, making homes the UK’s largest consumer of heat and electricity. A fifth of the UK’s carbon emissions come from <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/790626/2018-provisional-emissions-statistics-report.pdf">heating and powering homes</a>, so making houses carbon neutral would be a huge contribution to reaching net zero emissions.</p>
<p><strong>Natural gas production and use in the UK</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348917/original/file-20200722-20-1kkldr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A Sankey diagram showing how natural gas is produced and used in the UK." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348917/original/file-20200722-20-1kkldr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348917/original/file-20200722-20-1kkldr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348917/original/file-20200722-20-1kkldr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348917/original/file-20200722-20-1kkldr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348917/original/file-20200722-20-1kkldr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348917/original/file-20200722-20-1kkldr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348917/original/file-20200722-20-1kkldr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">2018 figures.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/digest-of-uk-energy-statistics-dukes-2019">DUKES/UK government</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are no technical barriers to this. A carbon-neutral home can exist today with insulation; energy storage in hot water, batteries and solar panels; and heat pumps, which use four times less power than gas central-heating and work by extracting heat from air, soil or water using electricity.</p>
<p>This doesn’t require hydrogen or upgrades to gas or electricity grids, because so little electricity is needed. The power supply for heat pumps is a quarter of the size of that required for producing hydrogen. Even Centrica, a company that supplies gas for heating, has declared its <a href="https://www.businessgreen.com/news/4017286/centrica-throws-weight-uk-heat-electrification-drive-amid-hydrogen-cost-fears">support for heat pumps</a> over hydrogen gas heating on cost grounds.</p>
<h2>Energy storage</h2>
<p>The next largest consumer of gas in the UK is electricity generation. So why not use green hydrogen to generate electricity?</p>
<p>Well, it would be very inefficient. Significant amounts of energy are lost in using electricity to produce hydrogen and then in burning hydrogen to produce electricity. And if hydrogen is synthesised from electrolysis, it stands to reason that hydrogen per kWhr will cost more than the electricity it was derived from.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.ukhfca.co.uk/about/">Some hydrogen advocates</a> nonetheless argue that we can use surplus renewable power, particularly wind energy in the UK, to make hydrogen and store it for times when renewable supply is limited by the weather. There are, though, a wealth of means for storing energy. These include batteries; storing energy as heat captured from renewables; phase-change storage, which involves storing and then extracting energy by converting a solid into a liquid and back again; biofuels; and hydro, where elevated water is stored and pumped when energy is needed.</p>
<p>And if buildings are made carbon neutral with energy efficiency measures, much less power is required anyway, so the need for storage is minimised. Importing and exporting renewable energy from continental Europe would negate the need for some energy storage. As would the steady provision of power from nuclear. In other words, the energy storage issue can be addressed without hydrogen.</p>
<h2>A new dash for gas</h2>
<p>Transport is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/car-dependency-uk-government-cant-cut-driving-and-build-lots-of-roads-at-same-time-134965">largest single source</a> of CO₂ emissions in the UK. Battery electric vehicles are probably the <a href="https://theconversation.com/hydrogen-cars-wont-overtake-electric-vehicles-because-theyre-hampered-by-the-laws-of-science-139899">best choice to replace cars</a>, and they are the EU’s preferred option.</p>
<p>But hydrogen could fuel long distance heavy haulage and shipping, where battery sizes currently limit electrification. Likewise, there are some industrial processes which will be difficult to electrify, such as cement and steel production, where hydrogen will also play a role.</p>
<p><strong>UK transport emissions</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A graph showing how much different forms of transport contribute to the sector's total emissions." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348916/original/file-20200722-28-slwntj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348916/original/file-20200722-28-slwntj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348916/original/file-20200722-28-slwntj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348916/original/file-20200722-28-slwntj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348916/original/file-20200722-28-slwntj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=621&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348916/original/file-20200722-28-slwntj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=621&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348916/original/file-20200722-28-slwntj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=621&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">2018 figures.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Department for Transport</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But I can’t see a compelling case for hydrogen replacing natural gas as a major source of heat and power. Energy efficiency and electrification are superior options for delivering net zero emissions. So why is hydrogen touted as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/19/can-a-hydrogen-boom-fuel-a-green-recovery-for-britain">the key</a> to Britain’s green recovery?</p>
<p><a href="https://connectpa.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Hydrogen-APPG-Report-2020.pdf">A recent report</a> from the UK All Parties Parliamentary Group of MPs and businesses might explain why. It puts a very positive spin on hydrogen, but neglects to mention any other low-carbon alternatives.</p>
<p>The sponsors were businesses with a vested interest in promoting hydrogen: domestic gas boiler providers, gas network operators and fossil fuel producers who know that for the foreseeable future, hydrogen will be fossil derived. But is the vested interest of business best for UK consumers?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143059/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Baxter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Energy efficiency and electrification should lead the effort to decarbonise society, not hydrogen.Tom Baxter, Senior Lecturer in Chemical Engineering, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1387912020-07-06T12:11:45Z2020-07-06T12:11:45Z‘Renewable’ natural gas may sound green, but it’s not an antidote for climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344870/original/file-20200630-103645-k9wq9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5200%2C3456&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Methane bubbles form in a pit digester on a dairy farm as bacteria break down cow manure. The methane can be collected and used as an energy source.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/methane-bubbles-from-manure-pit-digester-on-dairy-farm-news-photo/687589526?adppopup=true">Edwin Remsburg/VW Pics via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Natural gas is a versatile fossil fuel that accounts for <a href="https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03#/?f=A&start=200001">about a third of U.S. energy use</a>. Although it produces fewer greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants than coal or oil, natural gas is a major contributor to climate change, an <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">urgent global problem</a>. Reducing emissions from the natural gas system is especially challenging because natural gas is used <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_dcu_nus_m.htm">roughly equally for electricity, heating, and industrial applications</a>. </p>
<p>There’s an emerging argument that maybe there could be a direct substitute for fossil natural gas in the form of renewable natural gas (RNG) – a renewable fuel designed to be nearly indistinguishable from fossil natural gas. RNG could be made from biomass or from captured carbon dioxide and electricity. </p>
<p>Based on what’s known about these systems, however, I believe climate benefits might not be as large as advocates claim. This matters because RNG isn’t widely used yet, and decisions about whether to invest in it are being made now, in places like <a href="https://www.cleanenergyfuels.com/blog/influx-of-california-rng-fuels-local-economy-protects-climate">California</a>, <a href="https://www.oregon.gov/energy/Get-Involved/Pages/RNG-Advisory-Committee.aspx">Oregon</a>, <a href="http://biomassmagazine.com/articles/15172/inslee-signs-bill-to-promote-rng-in-state-of-washington">Washington</a>, <a href="https://energynews.us/2019/12/03/midwest/michigan-utilities-see-role-for-renewable-natural-gas-but-cost-barrier-remains/">Michigan</a>, <a href="https://investor.southerncompany.com/information-for-investors/latest-news/latest-news-releases/press-release-details/2020/Southern-Company-Gas-grows-leadership-team-to-focus-on-climate-action-innovation-and-renewable-natural-gas-strategy/default.aspx">Georgia</a> and <a href="https://www.epa.gov/natural-gas-star-program/rng-interconnect-guideline-new-york">New York</a>.</p>
<p>As someone who studies <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=3RI02dcAAAAJ&hl=en">sustainability</a>, I research how decisions made now might influence the environment and society in the future. I’m particularly interested in how energy systems contribute to climate change. </p>
<p>Right now, energy is responsible for most of the pollution worldwide that <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/">causes climate change</a>. Since energy infrastructure, like power plants and pipelines, <a href="http://emilygrubert.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/eia_860_2017_map.html">lasts a long time</a>, it’s important to consider the climate change emissions that society <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1364-3">is committing to</a> with new investments in these systems. At the moment, renewable natural gas is more a proposal than reality, which makes this a great time to ask: What would investing in RNG mean for climate change? </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3KaMnkmf0tc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Marketing video from Southern California Gas Co. promoting renewable natural gas as a climate-friendly energy option.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What RNG is and why it matters</h2>
<p>Most equipment that uses energy can only use a single kind of fuel, but the fuel might come from different resources. For example, you can’t charge your computer with gasoline, but it can run on electricity generated from coal, natural gas or solar power. </p>
<p>Natural gas is almost pure methane, <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/natural-gas/">currently sourced</a> from raw, fossil natural gas produced from <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/natural-gas/where-our-natural-gas-comes-from.php">deposits deep underground</a>. But methane could come from renewable resources, too.</p>
<p>[<em>The Conversation’s science, health and technology editors pick their favorite stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-favorite">Weekly on Wednesdays</a>.]</p>
<p>Two main methane sources could be used to make RNG. First is <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-sinks">biogenic methane</a>, produced by bacteria that digest organic materials in manure, landfills and wastewater. Wastewater treatment plants, landfills and dairy farms have captured and used biogenic methane as an energy resource for <a href="http://emilygrubert.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/eia_860_2017_map.html">decades</a>, in a form usually called <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/biomass/landfill-gas-and-biogas.php">biogas</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343781/original/file-20200624-133013-vi71ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343781/original/file-20200624-133013-vi71ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343781/original/file-20200624-133013-vi71ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343781/original/file-20200624-133013-vi71ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343781/original/file-20200624-133013-vi71ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343781/original/file-20200624-133013-vi71ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343781/original/file-20200624-133013-vi71ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Methane captured from cow manure can be used to produce renewable natural gas, which energy companies are promoting as a replacement for fossil natural gas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Exchange-Cow-Manure-Renewables/be42da9d774e40b98ea4e1a332de3423/15/0">AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some biogenic methane is generated naturally when organic materials break down without oxygen. Burning it for energy can be beneficial for the climate if doing so prevents methane from escaping to the atmosphere. </p>
<p>In theory, there’s enough of this climate-friendly methane available to replace <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9335/meta">about 1% of the energy</a> that the current natural gas system provides. The largest share is found at landfills.</p>
<p>The other source for RNG doesn’t exist in practice yet, but could theoretically be a much larger resource than biogenic methane. Often called <a href="https://www.powermag.com/why-power-to-gas-may-flourish-in-a-renewables-heavy-world/">power-to-gas</a>, this methane would be intentionally manufactured from carbon dioxide and hydrogen using electricity. If all the inputs are climate-neutral – meaning, for example, that the electricity used to create the RNG is generated from resources without greenhouse gas emissions – then the combusted RNG would also be climate-neutral.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344892/original/file-20200630-103683-11bkmyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344892/original/file-20200630-103683-11bkmyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344892/original/file-20200630-103683-11bkmyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344892/original/file-20200630-103683-11bkmyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344892/original/file-20200630-103683-11bkmyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344892/original/file-20200630-103683-11bkmyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344892/original/file-20200630-103683-11bkmyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344892/original/file-20200630-103683-11bkmyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Digesters at the Deer Island water treatment plant on Boston Harbor break down sewage sludge, yielding methane gas that helps power the plant.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deer_Island_Waste_Water_Treatment_Plant#/media/File:Deerislandeggs.jpg">Frank Hebbert/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So far, RNG of either type isn’t widely available. Much of the current conversation focuses on whether and how to make it available. For example, <a href="https://www.sempra.com/socalgas-takes-next-step-toward-offering-renewable-natural-gas">SoCalGas in California</a>, <a href="https://energynews.us/2019/01/30/midwest/minnesota-utility-wants-to-offer-customers-renewable-natural-gas-option/">CenterPoint Energy in Minnesota and Vermont Gas Systems in Vermont</a> either offer or have proposed offering RNG to consumers, in the same way that many utilities allow customers to opt in to renewable electricity. </p>
<h2>Renewable isn’t always sustainable</h2>
<p>If RNG could be a renewable replacement for fossil natural gas, why not move ahead? Consumers have shown that they are <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/green-power.html">willing to buy renewable electricity</a>, so we might expect similar enthusiasm for RNG. </p>
<p>The key issue is that methane isn’t just a fuel – it’s also a <a href="https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/ghg_report/ghg_overview.php">potent greenhouse gas</a> that contributes to climate change. Any methane that is manufactured intentionally, whether from biogenic or other sources, will contribute to climate change if it enters the atmosphere. </p>
<p>And <a href="http://DOI.org/10.1126/science.aar7204">releases</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2019.07.029">will happen</a>, from newly built production systems and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-methane-emissions-matter-to-climate-change-5-questions-answered-122684">existing, leaky transportation and user infrastructure</a>. For example, the moment you smell gas before the pilot light on a stove lights the ring? That’s methane leakage, and it contributes to climate change.</p>
<p>To be clear, RNG is almost certainly better for the climate than fossil natural gas because byproducts of burning RNG won’t contribute to climate change. But doing somewhat better than existing systems is no longer enough to respond to the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2923">urgency</a> of climate change. The world’s <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/">primary international body on climate change</a> suggests we need to decarbonize by 2030 to mitigate the worst effects of climate change. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343794/original/file-20200624-132955-1k1d4pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343794/original/file-20200624-132955-1k1d4pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343794/original/file-20200624-132955-1k1d4pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343794/original/file-20200624-132955-1k1d4pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343794/original/file-20200624-132955-1k1d4pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343794/original/file-20200624-132955-1k1d4pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343794/original/file-20200624-132955-1k1d4pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343794/original/file-20200624-132955-1k1d4pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Renewable natural gas would compete with other energy sources, such as wind power, that do not emit greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Carbon-Pricing-New-York/9aa3909b7478409386ed2f2b56eb961a/86/0">AP Photo/Julie Jacobson</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Scant climate benefits</h2>
<p><a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9335/meta">My recent research</a> suggests that for a system large enough to displace a lot of fossil natural gas, RNG is probably not as good for the climate as <a href="https://investor.southerncompany.com/information-for-investors/latest-news/latest-news-releases/press-release-details/2020/Southern-Company-Gas-grows-leadership-team-to-focus-on-climate-action-innovation-and-renewable-natural-gas-strategy/default.aspx">is publicly claimed</a>. Although RNG has lower climate impact than its fossil counterpart, likely high demand and methane leakage mean that it probably will contribute to climate change. In contrast, renewable sources such as wind and solar energy do not <a href="https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/carbon/">emit climate pollution directly</a>. </p>
<p>What’s more, creating a large RNG system would require building mostly new production infrastructure, since RNG comes from different sources than fossil natural gas. Such investments are both long-term commitments and opportunity costs. They would devote money, political will and infrastructure investments to RNG instead of alternatives that could achieve a zero greenhouse gas emission goal.</p>
<p>When climate change first <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1988/06/24/us/global-warming-has-begun-expert-tells-senate.html">broke into the political conversation</a> in the late 1980s, investing in long-lived systems with low but non-zero greenhouse gas emissions was still compatible with aggressive climate goals. Now, zero greenhouse gas emissions is the target, and my research suggests that large deployments of RNG likely won’t meet that goal.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138791/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emily Grubert does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Energy companies are marketing a new fuel: ‘renewable’ natural gas. But it’s not the same from a climate change perspective as wind or solar energy.Emily Grubert, Assistant Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1303092020-01-30T09:56:17Z2020-01-30T09:56:17ZHow social ‘tipping points’ could limit global warming<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311564/original/file-20200123-162228-qujam1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Achieving the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Climate Agreement</a> goal of keeping global warming to 1.5°C requires a worldwide transformation to carbon-neutral societies within the next 30 years. The task ahead is immense. It requires dramatic technological progress, policy implementations and <a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/10/8-things-you-need-know-about-ipcc-15-c-report">wide scale changes in society</a>.</p>
<p>To explore how to bring about such changes, we asked this question: is it possible to unleash tipping points within societies, which unlock positive and rapid climate action in line with keeping warming to <a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/10/8-things-you-need-know-about-ipcc-15-c-report">1.5°C</a>? </p>
<p>To answer it we conducted a survey of 133 international experts in the field of sustainability research and practice. Those experts suggested potential societal transformations that could lead to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/interactive/emissions-gap-report/2019/">fast enough</a> to avoid crossing dangerous tipping points in the Earth’s climate system.</p>
<p>The survey, an extensive literature review, and a workshop involving 17 selected experts formed the basis of our recently published <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/01/14/1900577117">research paper</a>. We found that social tipping interventions have the potential to collectively pave the way for rapid transformative change, making the seemingly impossible possible – a decarbonising global society.</p>
<h2>Positive social tipping points</h2>
<p>Fossil fuel use and emissions are at record highs because business-as-usual and conventional policy processes have proven <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/fossil-fuel-reliance-remains-stubbornly-high-report-finds-1.4082066">inadequate</a> to slow climate change. Achieving a rapid global decarbonisation to stabilise the climate depends on activating processes of social and technological change <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27082019/12-years-climate-change-explained-ipcc-science-solutions">within the next few years</a>.</p>
<p>In our paper, we identified a number of potential tipping points that could trigger such changes. These ranged from technologies to behaviours, social norms and the way society is run and governed. </p>
<p>Some examples include a shift in moral norms that leads to the removal of the fossil fuel industry’s social licence to operate. Another is reaching an economic shift where renewables out compete and displace fossil fuels. These two tipping points could in turn lead to a <a href="https://thenearlynow.com/trump-putin-and-the-pipelines-to-nowhere-742d745ce8fd?gi=4bad66fa39fe">withdrawal of capital</a> from the fossil fuel industry.</p>
<p>Our research proposes concrete interventions which could potentially trigger such tipping points. These include: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivising decentralised renewable energy generation;</p></li>
<li><p>building carbon-neutral cities; </p></li>
<li><p>divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels; </p></li>
<li><p>revealing the morally harmful nature of fossil fuels; </p></li>
<li><p>strengthening climate education and engagement, and </p></li>
<li><p>building information feedback loops on greenhouse gas emissions. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>The different interventions wouldn’t work in isolation. Rather, they could potentially reinforce and magnify each other, leading to a rapid decarbonisation of societies to avert some of the worst impacts of climate change. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311215/original/file-20200121-117938-m7r0i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311215/original/file-20200121-117938-m7r0i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311215/original/file-20200121-117938-m7r0i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311215/original/file-20200121-117938-m7r0i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311215/original/file-20200121-117938-m7r0i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311215/original/file-20200121-117938-m7r0i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311215/original/file-20200121-117938-m7r0i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Social tipping elements (STEs) and associated social tipping interventions (STIs)</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Otto et al. (2020)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>On the verge of tipping?</h2>
<p>There are early signs that some of these social tipping points are close to being reached. For example, renewable energy prices are now lower than fossil fuel prices in <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesellsmoor/2019/06/15/renewable-energy-is-now-the-cheapest-option-even-without-subsidies/">most world markets</a>. If this trend was coupled with the removal of <a href="https://theconversation.com/vast-subsidies-keeping-the-fossil-fuel-industry-afloat-should-be-put-to-better-use-119954">distorting fossil fuel subsidies</a>, it could see a rapid uptake of renewable energy.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vast-subsidies-keeping-the-fossil-fuel-industry-afloat-should-be-put-to-better-use-119954">Vast subsidies keeping the fossil fuel industry afloat should be put to better use</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Another example is the emergence of a younger, more climate aware generation which is becoming increasingly politically active. This has led to emergence of the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02696-0">youth-led climate strike</a> and <a href="https://www.academia.edu/22236651/Divestment_as_Climate_Justice_Weighing_the_Power_of_the_Fossil_Fuel_Divestment_Movement">fossil fuel divestment movements</a>. Both have played powerful roles in exposing the moral harms created by fossil fuels. As a result, the fossil fuel industry is increasingly losing its social and moral legitimacy, with <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/oil-and-gas-sector-losing-its-social-licence-to-operate-uk-boss-warns/">a UK oil and gas boss</a>, Tim Eggar, recently warning that: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The licence to operate for the industry has changed fundamentally and – unlike the oil price – forever.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Developments like these <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/the-good-news-about-a-green-new-deal?verso=true">open up the possibility</a> for more transformative action. They create political and economic space for ambitious policy platforms like the <a href="https://www.gp.org/green_new_deal">Green New Deal</a> in the US, which seeks to rapidly decarbonise and transform societies for the better. Passing a Green New Deal could, in turn, inspire greater action by demonstrating <a href="https://theintercept.com/2019/04/07/green-new-deal-happiness/">the positive impacts</a> of more transformative climate action.</p>
<h2>Rethinking climate action</h2>
<p>Traditional models of climate action <a href="https://monthlyreview.org/2019/11/01/on-fire-this-time/">presume linear change</a>. Our research hopes to encourage exploration of more transformative, non-linear social tipping points and how to unlock them. Doing so can help discover novel pathways to reaching net zero emissions – and reveal what tipping points might be needed to get there.</p>
<p>Fortunately, many activists are already putting pressure on a number of these social tipping elements. Whether they’ll reach critical capacity in time to meet the Paris Climate Agreement targets depends on the agency of all of us. Financial investors, company managers, home owners, teachers, activists, public opinion leaders, young, old, and everyday people – all have a role to play as the critical minority that can tip society towards rapid decarbonisation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130309/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex Lenferna currently works for 350.org - a global non-profit climate advocacy organisation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ilona M. Otto received funding from the Earth League alliance. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Donges received funding from the Earth League's EarthDoc program, the Stordalen Foundation (<a href="http://pb.net/">http://pb.net/</a> Network), the Leibniz Association (DominoES), and the European Research Council (Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene).</span></em></p>Social tipping interventions have the potential to pave the way for rapid change and avert climate change.Alex Lenferna, Climate Justice Campaigner with 350Africa.org, PhD in Philosophy (Climate Ethics), University of WashingtonIlona M. Otto, Research associate, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchJonathan Donges, Senior scientist, Earth system resilience, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1104752019-02-14T15:48:14Z2019-02-14T15:48:14ZCarbon capture on power stations burning woodchips is not the green gamechanger many think it is<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259036/original/file-20190214-1730-1miz45g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Drax biomass plant, Yorkshire. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/drax-power-station-cooling-towers-biomass-775570336?src=ZMUbgY5tJ_5v1CqampQ_Bw-1-2">Coatsey</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The UK’s efforts to develop facilities to remove carbon emissions from power stations took a step forward with <a href="https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/worlds-first-for-carbon-capture-at-drax-power-plant/10039829.article">news</a> of a demonstrator project getting underway at the Drax plant in north Yorkshire. Where most electricity carbon capture projects have focused on coal-fired power, the Drax project is the first to capture carbon dioxide (CO₂) from a plant purely burning wood chips – or biomass, to use the industry jargon. </p>
<p>This so-called Bio Energy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) demonstrator is only a pilot project; it covers just a tiny proportion of emissions from the 4GW plant and Drax has no plan yet for storing the captured gas. But coming after a decade in which various other UK carbon capture initiatives and government competitions <a href="https://qz.com/972939/the-uk-could-have-changed-the-way-the-world-fights-global-warming-instead-it-blew-200-million/">have</a> ended up <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/carbon-capture-storage-technology-greenhouse-gases-climate-change-government-failure-cost-taxpayers-a7707416.html">scrapped</a>, it is certainly progress. </p>
<p>Some specialists <a href="https://www.bioenergy-news.com/display_news/14147/comment_why_beccs_will_be_critical_to_deliver_an_affordable_energy_system_transition_in_the_uk/">believe</a> this technology has a bright future in the UK, envisaging big wood-fired power plants whose carbon emissions are prevented from returning to the atmosphere. Other countries <a href="https://www.bioenergy-news.com/display_news/13867/indonesian_and_austrian_beccs_research_initiative_announced/">are looking</a> at it seriously, too, and Drax and its partners have been <a href="https://www.energy-reporters.com/industry/carbon-capture-pilot-launched-in-uk/">talking up</a> the <a href="https://www.drax.com/technology/negative-emissions-techniques-technologies-need-know/">prospect</a> of eventually achieving “negative emissions” at the plant in Yorkshire. But this is fundamentally misleading. Without wanting to reject carbon capture out of hand, it is time to get realistic about what can be achieved with this technology. </p>
<h2>The carbon capture delusion</h2>
<p>The logic of the negative emissions argument is that burning wood is “<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47163840">carbon neutral</a>” because trees absorb CO₂ from the atmosphere in the first place, and you are simply releasing it back. When you combine this with a carbon capture facility, it is argued, you are therefore removing CO₂ from the atmosphere overall. </p>
<p>But this view considers the process of burning wood in isolation. It ignores, just as an example, a wider chain of activities including planting and harvesting the trees, converting the wood into chips and then <a href="https://www.energy-reporters.com/industry/carbon-capture-pilot-launched-in-uk/">shipping them</a> to the power plant – not to mention storing and using the captured CO₂ once the wood has been burned. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259051/original/file-20190214-1758-10i0a84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259051/original/file-20190214-1758-10i0a84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259051/original/file-20190214-1758-10i0a84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259051/original/file-20190214-1758-10i0a84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259051/original/file-20190214-1758-10i0a84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259051/original/file-20190214-1758-10i0a84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259051/original/file-20190214-1758-10i0a84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259051/original/file-20190214-1758-10i0a84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Carbon neutral?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/backoe-pick-woodchips-trucks-storage-outdoor-1062737072?src=zLGWuR15nULI1tRBdhXXVQ-1-3">Amarin Jitnathum</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There is also a misconception that burning wood produces only CO₂ – a BBC News reporter was saying as much the other day. But if this were the case, we would not need to separate CO₂ from other flue gases. Some of the carbon in the wood could become carbon monoxide, for instance, which, if not captured, would <a href="https://esseacourses.strategies.org/module.php?module_id=170">indirectly contribute</a> to levels of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere. The process also produces other noxious emissions, such as <a href="https://www.epa.gov/indoor-air-quality-iaq/technical-overview-volatile-organic-compounds">volatile organic compounds</a> and oxides of nitrogen, which are responsible for acid rain.</p>
<p>Too many people also tend to see wood as better than oil or coal because the amount of CO₂ produced by burning a given unit is much lower for wood. But this overlooks the fact that you get considerably more heat from burning a unit of oil or coal than from wood. In other words, you have to burn much more wood to produce the same amount of heat, so the carbon emissions are actually much more than they appear. This leads people to greatly underestimate the amount of land we will need for trees if biomass power is to become a much bigger part of the energy mix. The Drax plant alone <a href="https://www.energy-reporters.com/industry/carbon-capture-pilot-launched-in-uk/">uses</a> more wood than the UK produces every year, for instance. </p>
<p>The blinkered thinking around carbon capture also goes way beyond biomass power plants. There are now <a href="https://indd.adobe.com/view/2dab1be7-edd0-447d-b020-06242ea2cf3b">43 carbon capture facilities</a> either operating or in development – ten in the US, followed by Canada and Norway. <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=33552">Very few</a> are attached to power plants so far, with most instead removing CO₂ from <a href="https://www.bgs.ac.uk/science/CO2/home.html">oil fields</a> or <a href="http://www.dmp.wa.gov.au/Documents/Community-Education/Shute_Creek.pdf">gas processing plants</a>. But generous new subsidies in the likes of <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/carbon-capture-gains-momentum#gs.Q8rt5vWM">the US</a> are making the industry optimistic about carbon capture in the power sector regardless of which feedstock is burned. </p>
<p>Across the board, there is the same tendency to ignore the carbon emissions in everything from coal/gas/oil extraction to CO₂ storage. We also hear very little about the solvents traditionally used to separate the CO₂ from the rest of the combustion gases. These amines are highly corrosive and bad for the environment, plus there are CO₂ emissions from producing them in the first place. </p>
<h2>A different approach</h2>
<p>My point is not that we should be against carbon capture plants; the technology is much needed, and pilots like the one at Drax are important for possibly scaling up the process and measuring what is achievable. But when scientists conduct these measurements, they need to consider the complete chain to look at all of components involved – including, in the case of wood, the land used for the trees, and the consequences of deforestation. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259052/original/file-20190214-1717-1h02x7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259052/original/file-20190214-1717-1h02x7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259052/original/file-20190214-1717-1h02x7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259052/original/file-20190214-1717-1h02x7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259052/original/file-20190214-1717-1h02x7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259052/original/file-20190214-1717-1h02x7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259052/original/file-20190214-1717-1h02x7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259052/original/file-20190214-1717-1h02x7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fore!</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/area-illegal-deforestation-vegetation-native-brazilian-1156323859?src=sAzpQi5gEfzFJGzZoVWk2A-1-22">Tarcisio Schnaider</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also need much more discussion and research into which solvents are the most environmentally friendly for gas separation: Drax <a href="https://www.drax.com/press_release/europes-first-bioenergy-carbon-capture-storage-pilot-now-underway/">claims</a> to be using a new solvent with environmental benefits, so it will be interesting to see what the results look like down the line. </p>
<p>Clearly, our society needs energy. We would never be able to sustain ourselves if we eliminated fossil fuels completely. Capturing carbon dioxide emissions certainly has a role to play in the energy systems of the future, but it needs to be appraised in a way that looks at the whole picture. </p>
<p>The reality is that if the UK and EU are <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46360212">serious about</a> being completely carbon neutral by 2050, it will have to use a <a href="https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/greenhouse-gas-removal/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI1J7396q74AIV6p3tCh0Awgu4EAAYASAAEgKg5vD_BwE">mixture</a> of methods and cut back more aggressively on the emissions <a href="https://theconversation.com/now-that-uk-nuclear-power-plans-are-in-tatters-its-vital-to-double-down-on-wind-and-solar-110253">being produced</a> in the first place. This is always going to be more efficient than any attempts to put the genie back in the bottle afterwards. Regardless of what anyone says about technological solutions to the carbon problem, it is almost impossible to get away from this basic fact.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110475/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raffaella Ocone does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Drax biomass plant in Yorkshire is the first in the world to pioneer carbon capture and some specialists see it as it has a bright future. But hold the rosy headlines.Raffaella Ocone, Chair of Chemical Engineering, Heriot-Watt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/957272018-05-08T10:43:53Z2018-05-08T10:43:53ZThe EPA says burning wood to generate power is ‘carbon-neutral.’ Is that true?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217826/original/file-20180506-166877-1gprizs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Enviva's wood pellet plant in Ahoskie, NC. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://marlboroproductions.com/">Marlboro Productions</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt recently told a group of forestry executives and students that from now on the U.S. government would consider burning wood to generate electricity, commonly <a href="http://www.altenergy.org/renewables/biomass.html/">known as forest</a> or <a href="https://www.fs.fed.us/woodybiomass/whatis.shtml">woody biomass</a>, to be “<a href="https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/administrator-pruitt-promotes-environmental-stewardship-forestry-leaders-and-students">carbon neutral</a>.”</p>
<p>The executives, who had gathered at an Earth Day celebration in Georgia, greeted the news <a href="http://gfagrow.org/georgia-forestry-association-applauds-epa-administrator-for-recognizing-carbon-benefits-of-woody-biomass/">with enthusiasm</a>. But I did not. </p>
<p>Biomass does not introduce new carbon into the system, as its supporters point out. Yet it does <a href="http://www.pfpi.net/carbon-emissions">transfer carbon from forests to the atmosphere</a>, where it traps heat and contributes to climate change.</p>
<p>As a scientist and the <a href="http://fletcher.tufts.edu/Resilience/Team/Moomaw">coordinating lead author of the</a> <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srren/drafts/SRREN-FOD-Ch01.pdf">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on renewable energy</a>, I have concluded from extensive scientific studies that converting forests into fuel is not carbon neutral. I have also been working with many other scientists to <a href="http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/Pubs/climate/LetterFromScientistsToEuParliament_ForestBiomass_January_2018.pdf">inform governments</a> about the potential for forests to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and the climate perils of burning wood and forestry waste at an industrial scale for electric power.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217813/original/file-20180505-166887-qpyp14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217813/original/file-20180505-166887-qpyp14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217813/original/file-20180505-166887-qpyp14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217813/original/file-20180505-166887-qpyp14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217813/original/file-20180505-166887-qpyp14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217813/original/file-20180505-166887-qpyp14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217813/original/file-20180505-166887-qpyp14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217813/original/file-20180505-166887-qpyp14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wood pellets like this one are burned to generate heat or power.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Forests-As-Fuel/1a43a15375db4f858dd620941fa29ee1/1/0">AP Photo/John Flesher</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Turning forests into fuel</h2>
<p>Energy can be renewable. Or sustainable. Or carbon neutral. Or some combination. These terms are often used interchangeably, but they mean quite different things. Wind power and solar energy clearly have all three attributes. What about bioenergy – the heat released from burning wood and other plants?</p>
<p>Trees can eventually grow to replace those that were felled to produce wood pellets that are burned to produce electricity. That makes biomass very slowly renewable, if the replacement trees actually do grow enough to absorb all the carbon dioxide previously discharged.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nrdc.org/resources/our-forests-arent-fuel">Environmentalists generally oppose forest biomass</a> because it contributes to climate change while disrupting important ecosystems and the biodiversity they support. They also object to this source of energy because it appears that burning biomass <a href="http://fern.org/report/biomassandhealth">releases pollutants that endanger public health</a>. </p>
<p>The scientists who <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/280076738_IPCC_AR5_WG3_Chapter_11_Agriculture_Forestry_and_Other_Land_Use_AFOLU">study climate change</a>, the global carbon cycle and forest ecology tend to <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/359/6382/1328?rss=1">reject the notion of biomass carbon neutrality</a>. Some forest economists and <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2286237">forestry scientists</a>, however, support the notion of carbon neutrality, depending on the circumstances.</p>
<h2>Carbon accounting</h2>
<p>To settle this debate, many of my colleagues and I believe it is essential to accurately account for all the emissions from burning wood for electric power. This is more than an academic exercise as biomass already produces significant emissions and industry observers foresee a nearly <a href="https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/How2GuideforBioenergyRoadmapDevelopmentandImplementation.pdf">seven-fold increase in its use by 2050</a> from 2013 levels.</p>
<p>Forests can, at least theoretically, be managed sustainably as long as annual harvesting doesn’t exceed annual growth rates. Suppliers claim to use <a href="http://www.envivabiomass.com/sustainability/track-and-trace/enviva-responsible-wood-supply-program/">residues from timber harvesting, thinnings – trees growing too close to other trees to thrive – and sawdust</a> for this purpose. However, <a href="http://reports.climatecentral.org/pulp-fiction/1/">large-scale biomass has led to clear-cutting and the harvesting of whole trees</a>. </p>
<p>Also, experts see the carbon neutrality of forest biomass differently depending on the time frames they consider, and on their assumptions regarding the likelihood that saplings planted to replace burned trees grow sufficiently to offset all of the associated carbon emissions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217828/original/file-20180506-166910-1aj56pj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217828/original/file-20180506-166910-1aj56pj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217828/original/file-20180506-166910-1aj56pj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217828/original/file-20180506-166910-1aj56pj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217828/original/file-20180506-166910-1aj56pj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217828/original/file-20180506-166910-1aj56pj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217828/original/file-20180506-166910-1aj56pj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217828/original/file-20180506-166910-1aj56pj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trees at the Georgia Biomass pellet facility in Waycross.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://marlboroproductions.com/">Marlboro Productions</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Carbon neutrality supporters</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/bioenergy-basics">Bioenergy supporters</a> say it’s possible for replacement trees to eventually remove all the carbon emitted through biomass from the atmosphere.</p>
<p>But this would require growing trees and forests that are bigger than the ones already harvested and burned for fuel. In addition to the emissions from combustion, carbon is released from forest soils when trees are felled. And it takes <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-urgency-of-curbing-pollution-from-ships-explained-94797">large amounts of energy to prepare wood pellets and transport them</a> to where they are burned.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6gaftYQ_56Y?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The UK’s Drax power station is among the largest to shift from coal to wood.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some bioenergy advocates claim that the carbon dioxide emitted when utilities and industry burn wood for energy is removed instantaneously by other growing trees located elsewhere. As long as forests globally are removing more carbon dioxide than is being released from harvesting and burning them, they assert that bioenergy is carbon neutral until combustion emissions exceed the removal rate by live trees.</p>
<p>However, there do not appear to be any quantitative studies to support this concept.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217825/original/file-20180506-166906-hn6eox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217825/original/file-20180506-166906-hn6eox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217825/original/file-20180506-166906-hn6eox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217825/original/file-20180506-166906-hn6eox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217825/original/file-20180506-166906-hn6eox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217825/original/file-20180506-166906-hn6eox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217825/original/file-20180506-166906-hn6eox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217825/original/file-20180506-166906-hn6eox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The burning of fossil fuels and other human activities are rapidly increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://scied.ucar.edu/imagecontent/carbon-cycle-diagram-doe-numbers">Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Biomass critics</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/03/opinion/pruitt-forests-burning-energy.html">scientists and other energy experts</a> who argue that burning wood isn’t carbon-neutral – <a href="https://www.theclimategroup.org/person/bill-moomaw">including me</a> – point out that bioenergy releases as much or <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/280076738_IPCC_AR5_WG3_Chapter_11_Agriculture_Forestry_and_Other_Land_Use_AFOLU">more carbon dioxide per unit of thermal energy than coal or natural gas</a>. </p>
<p><iframe id="Hos2s" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Hos2s/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>People are adding nearly twice as much carbon dioxide as natural systems can remove every year. If <a href="https://scied.ucar.edu/imagecontent/carbon-cycle-diagram-doe-numbers">forests and soils</a> were not continuously doing their job of removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, concentrations would grow annually by 75 percent more than they do.</p>
<p>Like most bioenergy critics, I point out that this debate hinges on the choice of baselines for how and when one measures the net carbon impact of biomass emissions. Put another way, you can’t count trees – and the carbon they would remove – before they grow. </p>
<p>And if the utilities now using biomass were to deploy solar energy instead, more carbon would remain stored in forests and less would be released into the atmosphere.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217865/original/file-20180506-166874-48amok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217865/original/file-20180506-166874-48amok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217865/original/file-20180506-166874-48amok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217865/original/file-20180506-166874-48amok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217865/original/file-20180506-166874-48amok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217865/original/file-20180506-166874-48amok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217865/original/file-20180506-166874-48amok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217865/original/file-20180506-166874-48amok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An area in North Carolina, after trees were harvested to produce wood pellets.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://marlboroproductions.com/">Marlboro Productions</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Growing trees takes time</h2>
<p>Then there is the issue of time. Wood burns within minutes, releasing carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. But studies have determined that <a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa512/meta">it takes about a century to remove the previously emitted carbon dioxide</a> even if typical forest trees are replaced.</p>
<p>Many bioenergy advocates acknowledge that fact. They argue that a 100-year span is a reasonable time frame for achieving carbon neutrality, but <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5558952/">over the following 50 years, some tree species can double in size</a> to store twice as much carbon. Furthermore, according to scientific consensus, the world must begin reducing emissions by 2020 to meet the <a href="http://sciencenordic.com/can-we-really-limit-global-warming-%E2%80%9Cwell-below%E2%80%9D-two-degrees-centigrade">Paris climate agreement’s</a> goals to stave off disastrous global warming. </p>
<p>But waiting for full-replacement forest growth is a best-case scenario. The <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs13280-015-0747-4">forestry industry</a> usually harvests trees for timber, pulp and other products before they grow to their full potential. And there is no assurance that saplings planted to replace trees cut for biomass will grow enough to meet carbon removal goals before being lost to <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/104/50/19697">fire, pests, drought or wind</a> – or that the land where they are planted won’t be converted to <a href="http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/deforestation/deforestation_causes/forest_conversion/">agriculture, housing, office parks or parking lots</a>.</p>
<p>Even using forest residues from harvesting, and thinnings from forest management <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/03/13/1720064115">aren’t carbon-neutral</a>. Only expanding forests and lengthening times between harvests reduce emissions.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217755/original/file-20180504-166903-1qro6ls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217755/original/file-20180504-166903-1qro6ls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217755/original/file-20180504-166903-1qro6ls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217755/original/file-20180504-166903-1qro6ls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217755/original/file-20180504-166903-1qro6ls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217755/original/file-20180504-166903-1qro6ls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217755/original/file-20180504-166903-1qro6ls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217755/original/file-20180504-166903-1qro6ls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The author and tree expert Robert Leverett walking among 150-year-old trees in Connecticut’s McLean Wildlife Refuge.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Connor Hogan</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Besides, the consequences of a changed climate, such as flooded coastal cities, irreversibly melted glaciers and sea ice, species extinction and more severe weather events like hurricanes is what really matters – not net carbon emissions. <a href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/02/13/11-takeaways-draft-un-report-1-5c-global-warming-limit/">Eventual carbon neutrality does not assure climate neutrality</a>. And even if tree regrowth were to counteract the carbon released through biomass, it would take decades. But the world needs to stall emissions growth now. </p>
<p>And of course if that wood had not been burned, the vast majority of those surviving trees would have removed and stored <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/03/13/1720064115">carbon dioxide emitted from burning coal</a> and other fossil fuels.</p>
<h2>Government support</h2>
<p>Yet many governments are making forest biomass a mainstay of their renewable energy policies, especially in the European Union – which declared all forms of <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2114993-europes-green-energy-policy-is-a-disaster-for-the-environment/">bioenergy to be carbon-neutral</a> in 2009. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.edie.net/news/10/Biomass--carbon-neutrality--debate-continues-to-divide-opinions/">U.K. is replacing all of its coal-fired power plants</a> with new facilities that burn wood pellets that are <a href="http://www.environmentalintegrity.org/news/biomass-report/">largely imported from southern states</a> like North Carolina and Mississippi. </p>
<p><iframe id="Qf3BY" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Qf3BY/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Producing electricity by burning wood now <a href="https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-2017/">costs more than wind or solar power</a>, making biomass <a href="http://econofact.org/can-u-s-and-u-k-forest-bioenergy-subsidies-have-adverse-climate-consequences">only economically viable with large subsidies</a>. It takes a significant <a href="https://www.dogwoodalliance.org/our-work/forests-climate/">environmental toll on local land, water and biodiversity</a> while generating as much <a href="http://www.pfpi.net/air-pollution-2">air pollution</a> as coal, or even more, for some pollutants.</p>
<p>The evidence demonstrates that burning biomass worsens climate change. By contrast, protecting and restoring forests increases the removal and long-term storage of carbon from the atmosphere, a highly effective means for slowing global warming.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95727/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Moomaw receives funding from Rockefeller Brothers Fund. He is affiliated with Woods Hole Research Center (Board Chair), The Climate Group (Board Chair North America), The Nature Conservancy. (Board member Massachusetts chapter) </span></em></p>Deriving fuel from trees costs more than wind and solar power and it emits more carbon than coal. There are many heated debates about this kind of energy, known as forest or woody biomass.William Moomaw, Professor Emeritus of International Environmental Policy, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/932182018-03-29T08:35:11Z2018-03-29T08:35:11ZFurther, faster, deeper: the UK needs a more ambitious Climate Change Act<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212257/original/file-20180327-109193-1oy66r9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Deborah Benbrook / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The UK’s <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2008/27/contents">Climate Change Act</a> is a pioneering and far-sighted piece of legislation, ushered in ten years ago by a remarkable cross-party consensus in parliament and clear support across the nation.</p>
<p>As we celebrate its tenth anniversary, it is time to ask, though, whether the central ambition of the Act – reducing carbon emissions by at least 80% from 1990 levels by 2050 – is still adequate in light of changing circumstances, or whether it needs strengthening.</p>
<p>Climate scientists are clear that global carbon emissions will have to fall to net zero at some point if the rise in average temperature is to be halted. This is because as long as the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere continues to increase, the temperature is likely to keep on rising. (“Net zero” means that although there may be a small amount of carbon dioxide being emitted each year to the atmosphere, an equivalent amount will be absorbed and stored.)</p>
<p>The UK government, along with all others, acknowledged this reality by signing up first to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report in 2014, and then the Paris Agreement in December 2015.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf">IPCC said</a> that meeting the 2°C target then in place “…would require that global net emissions of CO₂ eventually decrease to zero”. In the <a href="https://unfccc.int/files/meetings/paris_nov_2015/application/pdf/paris_agreement_english_.pdf">Paris Agreement</a> governments committed “…to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century”. In 2016, the UK’s then energy minister, Andrea Leadsom, <a href="https://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2450973/government-confirms-zero-emission-paris-goal-to-be-enshrined-in-law">told parliament</a>: “The government believes that we will need to take the step of enshrining the Paris goal for net zero emissions in UK law.”</p>
<p>Having agreed that a net zero target is necessary, the next question is “when?”</p>
<h2>2050 is already too late</h2>
<p>In the Paris Agreement, governments pledged not only to hold global warming to “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels”, but also to attempt to “limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C … recognising that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.”</p>
<p>The government’s statutory advisor, the Committee on Climate Change (the CCC, on which one of us used to sit), <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/2017-Report-to-Parliament-Meeting-Carbon-Budgets-Closing-the-policy-gap.pdf">advises that</a> in order to stand an evens chance of meeting the 1.5°C aspiration, global emissions of CO₂ need to fall to net zero by the 2040s. The IPCC is producing a special report this year on the case for limiting warming to 1.5°C and pathways for doing so, and is <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-draft/warming-set-to-breach-paris-accords-toughest-limit-by-mid-century-draft-idUKKBN1F02RH">likely to say the same thing</a>.</p>
<p>One of the principles of the UN climate convention is that prosperous nations lead the way. Britain agreed to this back in 1992 and has reaffirmed it many times since. If the science is clear that the global target should be “net zero by 2050”, there is no case for the UK setting a later date – and there is a case for making it earlier.</p>
<h2>Getting to zero</h2>
<p>Nevertheless, adopting a national net zero target is not a trivial matter. Carbon emissions in most sectors of the economy would have to fall to zero. This is largely achievable with current technology, but in sectors such as agriculture and <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-time-to-wake-up-to-the-devastating-impact-flying-has-on-the-environment-70953">aviation</a> it will be challenging. It will also be necessary to put in place mechanisms to <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-emissions-cuts-arent-enough-well-have-to-put-carbon-back-in-the-ground-52175">take carbon dioxide from the atmosphere</a>, to make up for the small amount of emissions that will inevitably remain.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212296/original/file-20180327-109185-1knp52x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212296/original/file-20180327-109185-1knp52x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212296/original/file-20180327-109185-1knp52x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212296/original/file-20180327-109185-1knp52x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212296/original/file-20180327-109185-1knp52x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212296/original/file-20180327-109185-1knp52x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212296/original/file-20180327-109185-1knp52x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mexico’s General Law on Climate Change (2012) was influenced by the UK’s Climate Change Act.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">mundosemfim / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are opportunities as well as challenges. For example, many measures that store carbon in nature, such as <a href="http://www.wildlifetrusts.org/peatlands">restoring peat bogs</a> or planting forests, bring other benefits in terms of landscape, recreation and wildlife.</p>
<p>Sweden, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/15/norway-pledges-to-become-climate-neutral-by-2030">Norway</a>, Iceland, and <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-france-carbon-emissions/france-to-revise-carbon-emissions-target-after-missing-2016-goal-idUKKBN1FB2W0">France</a> have either adopted a net zero target or are considering doing so. The longer the UK delays, the more its claim to be a global leader on climate change is compromised. British leadership has led other countries to introduce legislation <a href="http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Globe2014.pdf">modelled on its Climate Change Act</a>, and a decision to set a net-zero target is also likely to stimulate others to do the same.</p>
<p>The UK can justifiably be proud of the Climate Change Act. But it’s time to be more ambitious.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/93218/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Krebs is a member of the House of Lords EU Energy and Environment Select Committee and a former member of the Committee on Climate Change as well as Chair of its Adaptation Sub Committee. He is also an advisor to the Wellcome Trusts' programme on planetary health and sits on the Advisory Board of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joanna Haigh is a Professor of Atmospheric Physics and the Director of the Science and Solutions for a Changing Planet (SSCP) Doctoral Training Partnership. She sits on strategic/advisory boards for the National Physical Laboratory, the Cyprus Institute, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, and the BNPParibas philanthropy programme.</span></em></p>The pioneering legislation is ten years old – and the latest science means it now does not go far enough.John Krebs, Emeritus Professor of Zoology, University of OxfordJoanna Haigh, Co-Director, Grantham Institute for Climate Change & Environment, Imperial College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/935892018-03-19T15:28:03Z2018-03-19T15:28:03ZCan a city ever be truly ‘carbon neutral’?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211003/original/file-20180319-31608-1p6nnx4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shahid Khan / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Upon becoming Greater Manchester’s first elected mayor, Andy Burnham announced his ambition to make the city-region one of the greenest in Europe. In his <a href="https://www.greatermanchester-ca.gov.uk/download/meetings/id/2834/mayoral_green_summit_overview">Mayor’s manifesto</a>, the former MP and Labour leadership candidate, committed to “a new, accelerated ambition for Greater Manchester on the green economy and carbon neutrality”. If achieved, Manchester would be transformed from one-time poster city for Britain’s dirty past to a decarbonised oasis in the post-industrial north-west of England. What it will take to realise this vision is the topic of a “Green Summit” to be held in Manchester on March 21.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.greatermanchester-ca.gov.uk/info/20005/green_city_region/117/green_summit/1">Green Summit website</a> claims the best minds from Greater Manchester’s universities and businesses, local activists and residents will be brought together to debate how to “<a href="https://www.gmcvo.org.uk/greater-manchester-ambition-become-one-leading-green-cities-europe">achieve carbon neutrality as early as possible</a>”, ideally by 2050. Leading up to the summit, expert workshops and “listening events” were held across the region, in order to inform a forthcoming <a href="https://www.greatermanchester-ca.gov.uk/info/20005/green_city_region">Green Charter</a>, the plan for how the city will become “carbon neutral”.</p>
<p>We argue that the concept of “carbon neutrality” is a lofty ambition, but it needs unpacking before anyone gets too excited about its potential. The idea that a zero carbon target is the best driver for creating a city-region and planet that’s inclusive and liveable for all raises important questions.</p>
<h2>Understanding carbon</h2>
<p>Carbon neutrality, or “zero-carbon”, is a curious term. <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/?src=eoa-features">NASA remarks that</a> “carbon is the backbone of life on Earth. We are made of carbon, we eat carbon, and our civilisations – our homes, our means of transport – are built on carbon”. Even <a href="http://www.espimetals.com/index.php/online-catalog/353-Carbon">our bodies are 18.5% carbon</a>. Ridding our cities of carbon suddenly seems absurd. Removing the “backbone of our life on Earth” is surely not on Burnham’s eco-agenda. So what does “carbon neutral by 2050” actually mean? Understanding a little about carbon footprinting helps to expose the nuances and silences behind the ambition.</p>
<p>Carbon is emitted at various points within the production, transportation and consumption of goods and services, but establishing responsibility for these emissions depends on your standpoint. Is it the consumer, the manufacturer, the haulage firm, the investor, the source country or the destination country? Our actions and impacts do not respect political boundaries. </p>
<p>Governments typically count carbon emissions following guidelines from the <a href="https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/0_Overview/V0_1_Overview.pdf">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)</a>. Taking a “territorially-based” approach, only the direct carbon emissions (and removals) taking place within a certain city or a country are counted, along with those from the production of the energy consumed. “Carbon” stands for a whole raft of greenhouse gases, including CO₂. This approach underpins <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/2bc62cb8-004f-11e7-8d8e-a5e3738f9ae4">declarations of successes</a> and failures worldwide, but it’s just one way to allocate carbon emission. And herein lies the issue.</p>
<p>An alternative “consumption-based” accounting is more often used by environmental NGOs such as the <a href="http://footprint.wwf.org.uk/">WWF</a> or <a href="https://www.ice.org.uk/knowledge-and-resources/best-practice/environment-agency-carbon-calculator-tool">some parts</a> of the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uks-carbon-footprint">UK government</a>. This approach counts the total emissions from goods and services (including travel) consumed by a person, city or country, regardless of where they occurred. Under consumption-based accounting, eating an imported steak means factoring in shipping emissions, the plastic used in packaging, and the <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/cow-emissions-more-damaging-to-planet-than-co2-from-cars-427843.html">emissions from the cow itself</a> – all of which take place far outside of the typical “footprint”. One recent analysis found a group of large cities across the world <a href="https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/03/city-consumption-greenhouse-gases-carbon-c40-spd/">emitted 60% more carbon</a> when considered like this. </p>
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<span class="caption">A lot of cow farts went into this.</span>
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<p>But will Greater Manchester, the aspiring “Northern Powerhouse”, really want to include emissions from such key drivers of economic growth? The city-region has a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-aviation-forecasts-2017">busy airport</a>, for instance, that it might be convenient to exclude under “zero carbon”. Greater Manchester’s ambition may be laudable, but the zero-carbon definition risks <a href="https://theconversation.com/hope-from-chaos-could-political-upheaval-lead-to-a-new-green-epoch-90709">side-lining much-needed action</a> in other areas.</p>
<p>There is some degree of hope. Greater Manchester is implementing <a href="http://www.iclei.org/activities/agendas/low-carbon-city/gpc.html">a new standard</a> which extends the IPCC’s approach, also considering emissions from residents’ travel beyond Greater Manchester and waste disposed of beyond the city-region. This is significantly more ambitious than a territorial-based approach. But, even if “zero-carbon” was defined under this approach, there would still be difficult questions as to what extent aviation emissions would be included – if at all – not to mention other consumption-based emissions, such as those from imported food.</p>
<h2>Cleaner, greener, and lower carbon</h2>
<p>In any case, the city <a href="http://blog.policy.manchester.ac.uk/urban/2017/05/re-making-greater-manchester-sustainably/">needs environmental policies</a> beyond the focus on becoming “carbon neutral”. <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-englands-new-litter-strategy-is-actually-a-bit-rubbish-81202">Litter</a> is one of the top resident concerns about environmental quality, for instance, while a <a href="https://www2.mmu.ac.uk/science-engineering/about-us/news/story/index.php?id=7369">recent study by MMU’s Gina Cavan</a> found many people in the city have limited access to green and blue spaces. Research by <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/greater-manchester-river-tame-microplastic-pollution-worst-ever-university-study-a8248576.html">our colleagues</a> found the greatest level of microplastics ever recorded anywhere on the planet in Manchester’s very own River Tame.</p>
<p>No doubt the mayor and his team will be concerned about these other problems too. But the pollution crises and the lack of access to green spaces are questions of environmental injustice, and their root causes will not necessarily be addressed by carbon neutrality. To avoid obscuring other areas of action, it’s vital that claims about a “carbon neutral” future clearly state what they are referring to. </p>
<p>Carbon neutrality doesn’t cover everything – it might only be concerned with decarbonising energy and in-boundary emissions. If Greater Manchester is serious about becoming greener, cleaner and inclusive, then there needs to be accountability for other perspectives on emissions responsibility, including those associated with consumption and aviation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/93589/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Greater Manchester wants to be “zero carbon”. But this sort of target raises some important questions.Joe Blakey, PhD Researcher, Sustainable Consumption Institute, University of ManchesterSherilyn MacGregor, Reader in Environmental Politics, Sustainable Consumption Institute, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/828222018-02-12T02:54:27Z2018-02-12T02:54:27ZFixing cities’ water crises could send our climate targets down the gurgler<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205223/original/file-20180207-74501-hkvy6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Water treatment plants can't afford not to think about electricity too.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO/Wikimedia Commons</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Two cities on opposing continents, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2017/02/28/americas/chile-flooding-drinking-water/index.html">Santiago</a>
and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/feb/03/day-zero-cape-town-turns-off-taps">Cape Town</a>, have been brought to their knees by events at opposing ends of the climate spectrum: flood and drought. </p>
<p>The taps ran dry for Santiago’s 5 million inhabitants in early 2017, due to contamination of supplies by a massive rainfall event. And now Cape Town is heading towards “<a href="http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/cape-town-receives-glimmer-of-hope-as-nervous-countdown-to-day-zero-continues/news-story/1e8db65b14416c7184c7d32e70765579">day zero</a>” on May 11, after which residents will have to collect their drinking water from distribution points. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cape-town-is-almost-out-of-water-could-australian-cities-suffer-the-same-fate-90933">Cape Town is almost out of water. Could Australian cities suffer the same fate?</a>
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<p>It’s probably little comfort that Santiago and Cape Town <a href="https://theconversation.com/cape-towns-water-crisis-driven-by-politics-more-than-drought-88191">aren’t alone</a>. Many other cities around the world are <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/from-cape-town-to-melbourne-taps-run-dry-in-crisis-cities">grappling with impending water crises</a>, including in Australia, where <a href="https://www.watercorporation.com.au/water-supply/rainfall-and-dams/streamflow/streamflowhistorical">Perth</a> and <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/prediction-melbourne-could-begin-to-run-short-of-water-by-2028-20170722-gxgm2q.html">Melbourne</a> both risk running short. </p>
<p>In many of these places governments have tried to hedge their bets by turning to increasingly expensive and energy-ravenous ways to ensure supply, such as <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/534996/megascale-desalination/">desalination plants</a> and bulk water transfers. These two elements have come together in Victoria with the pumping of desalinated water 150km from a treatment plant at Wonthaggi, on the coast, to the Cardinia Reservoir, which is 167m above sea level.</p>
<p>But while providing clean water is a non-negotiable necessity, these strategies also risk delivering a blowout in greenhouse emissions.</p>
<h2>Water pressure</h2>
<p>Climate change puts many new pressures on water quality. Besides the effects of floods and droughts, temperature increases can boost evaporation and promote the growth of toxic algae, while catchments can be <a href="http://www.ecosmagazine.com/?act=view_file&file_id=EC120p8.pdf">contaminated by bushfires</a>.</p>
<p>Canberra experienced a situation similar to Santiago in 2003, when a bushfire burned through 98% of the Cotter catchment, and then heavy rain a few months later washed <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13241583.2006.11465291">huge amounts of contamination into the Bendora Dam</a>. The ACT government had to commission a A$40 million <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Membrane_bioreactor">membrane bioreactor treatment plant</a> to restore water quality.</p>
<p>At the height of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/millennium-drought-22237">Millennium Drought</a>, household water savings and restrictions lowered volumes in sewers (by up to 40% in Brisbane, for example). The resulting increase in salt concentrations put extra pressure on wastewater treatment and reclamation. </p>
<p>The energy needed to pump, treat, distribute and heat water – and then to convey, pump, reclaim or discharge it as effluent, and to move biosolids – is often overlooked. Many blueprints for <a href="https://d231jw5ce53gcq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Insight-brief_Net-zero-energy8_2.pdf">zero-carbon cities</a> underplay or neglect entirely the carbon footprint of water supply and sewage treatment. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.urbanwateralliance.org.au/publications/UWSRA-tr100.pdf">Some analyses</a> only consider the energy footprint of domestic water heating, rather than the water sector as a whole – which is rather like trying to calculate the carbon footprint of the livestock industry by only looking at cooking.</p>
<p>Yet the growing challenge of delivering a reliable and <a href="http://theconversation.com/the-water-industry-needs-to-join-the-fight-against-superbugs-37233">safe</a> water supply means that energy use is growing. The United States, for example, experienced a 39% increase in electricity usage for drinking water supply and treatment, and a 74% increase for wastewater treatment <a href="http://www.waterrf.org/Pages/Projects.aspx?PID=4454">over the period 1996-2013</a>, in spite of improvements in energy efficiency.</p>
<p>As climate change puts yet more pressure on water infrastructure, responses such as desalination plants and long-distance piping threaten to add even more to this energy burden. The water industry will increasingly be both a contributor to and a casualty of climate change.</p>
<p>How much energy individual utilities are actually using, either in Australia or worldwide, will vary widely according to the source of supply – such as rivers, groundwater or mountain dams – and whether gravity feeds are possible for freshwater and sewage (Melbourne shapes up well here, for example, whereas the Gold Coast doesn’t), as well as factors such as the level of treatment, and whether or not measures such as desalination or bulk transfers are in place.</p>
<p>All of this increases the water sector’s reliance on the electricity sector, which as we know has a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-electricity-sector-needs-to-cut-carbon-by-45-by-2030-to-keep-australia-on-track-80883">pressing need to reduce its greenhouse emissions</a>.</p>
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<span class="caption">Desalination plants: great for providing water, not so great for saving electricity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Moondyne/Wikimedia Commons</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>One option would be for water facilities to take themselves at least partly “off-grid”, by installing large amounts of solar panels, onsite wind turbines, or Tesla-style batteries (a few plants also harness <a href="https://theconversation.com/biogas-smells-like-a-solution-to-our-energy-and-waste-problems-36136">biogas</a>). Treatment plants are not exactly bereft of flat surfaces – such as roofs, grounds or even ponds – an opportunity <a href="http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/sa-water-to-put-floating-solar-panels-in-happy-valley-water-treatment-plant-to-bring-down-power-bills/news-story/8585a5f009ad15b381f1bff71457dc1c">seized upon by South Australian Water</a>. </p>
<p>But this is a large undertaking, and the alternative – waiting for the grid itself to become largely based on renewables – will take a long time.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.wsaa.asn.au/publication/energy-efficiency-benchmarking-pump-stations-project-fact-sheet">2012 study</a> found large variations in pump efficiency between water facilities in different local authorities across Australia. Clearly there is untapped scope for collaboration and knowledge-sharing in our water sector, as is done in Spain and Germany, where water utilities have integrated with municipal waste services, and in the United States, where the water and power sectors have gone into partnership in many places.</p>
<h2>The developing world</h2>
<p>Climate change and population growth are seriously affecting cities in middle-band and developing countries, and the overall <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609974/how-nuclear-weapons-research-revealed-new-climate-threats/">outlook is grim</a>. Many places, such as <a href="https://www.nap.edu/read/4937/chapter/6">Mexico City</a>, already have serious water contamination problems. Indeed, in developing nations these problems are worsened by existing water quality issues. Only one-third of wastewater is treated to <a href="https://www3.epa.gov/npdes/pubs/bastre.pdf">secondary standard</a> in Asia, less than half of that in Latin America and the Caribbean, and a minute amount in Africa. </p>
<p>The transfer of know-how to these places is critical to reaching clean energy transitions. Nations making the energy transition – especially China, the world’s largest greenhouse emitter – need to take just as much care to ensure they avoid a carbon blowout as they transition to clean water too.</p>
<p>Just as in the electricity sector, carbon pricing can potentially provide a valuable incentive for utilities to improve their environmental performance. If utilities were monitored on the amount of electricity used per kilolitre of water processed, and then rewarded (or penalised) accordingly, it would encourage the entire sector to up its game, from water supply all the way through to sewage treatment.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/this-is-what-australias-growing-cities-need-to-do-to-avoid-running-dry-86301">This is what Australia's growing cities need to do to avoid running dry</a>
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<p>Water is a must for city-dwellers – a fact that Cape Town’s officials are now nervously contemplating. It would be helpful for the industry to participate in the strategic planning and land-use debates that affect its energy budgets, and for its emissions (and emissions reductions) to be measured accurately.</p>
<p>In this way the water industry can become an influential participant in decarbonising our cities, rather than just a passive player.</p>
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<p><em>This article is based on a journal article (in press) co-authored by David Smith, former water quality manager for South East Water, Melbourne.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82822/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Fisher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cities all over the world are facing growing challenges to provide clean, reliable water. And many of the fixes, such as desalination plants, have a huge carbon footprint.Peter Fisher, Adjunct Professor, Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/872452017-11-28T19:07:57Z2017-11-28T19:07:57ZA fresh start for climate change mitigation in New Zealand<p>The election of the sixth Labour-led government heralds a new direction for climate change policy in New Zealand. </p>
<p>As part of the new government’s 100-day priority plan, it pledged to set a <a href="http://www.labour.org.nz/100days">target of carbon neutrality by 2050</a> and to establish the mechanisms to phase out fossil fuels. In doing so, New Zealand will join a small group of countries that have established this goal since last year: France, Germany, Sweden (by 2045) and Norway (by 2030).</p>
<h2>From commitment to action</h2>
<p>The government plans to set up an independent climate commission, likely <a href="https://www.productivity.govt.nz/sites/default/files/Examining%20the%20UK%20Climate%20Change%20Act%202008.pdf">based on the one established in the UK</a> with nearly unanimous parliamentary support in 2008. UK emissions are down not just to 1990 levels, but to <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-cuts-carbon-record-coal-drop">1900 levels</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/speech/speech-throne-2017">climate commission’s tasks</a> will include providing advice on effective pricing mechanisms for climate pollution, on the transition to 100% renewable electricity by 2035, and on bringing agriculture into the NZ <a href="http://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/reducing-greenhouse-gas-emissions/new-zealand-emissions-trading-scheme">Emissions Trading Scheme</a>. </p>
<p>All parties to the <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php">Paris Agreement</a> have already agreed to become carbon-neutral in the second half of this century. The snag is turning that commitment into action.</p>
<h2>A story of good intentions</h2>
<p>It is now 20 years since New Zealand first signed the <a href="http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php">Kyoto Protocol</a> – two decades of fine words and twists and turns in policy while emissions <a href="http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/environment/environmental-reporting-series/environmental-indicators/Home/Atmosphere-and-climate/nz-greenhouse-gas-emissions.aspx">continued to rise</a>. Surprisingly, while Australia has followed a twisty path of its own, perhaps with not so many fine words, the effect has been the same: gross greenhouse gas emissions have risen 24% in New Zealand since 1990, compared to a rise of 27% in Australia. </p>
<p>New Zealanders built a lot of gas-fuelled power stations in the 1990s and bought a <a href="http://www.transport.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/Research/Documents/Fleet-reports/The-NZ-Vehicle-Fleet-2016-web.pdf">lot of cars in the 2000s</a>. Astoundingly, we now have more cars per capita than <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/9309.0">Australia</a>. </p>
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<p>The frustrating story is told in the documentary <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGf4maDU7Ps">Hot Air</a>. New Zealand spent ten years getting a strategy in place, ending up with an <a href="http://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/reducing-greenhouse-gas-emissions/new-zealand-emissions-trading-scheme">emissions trading scheme</a> (ETS). Another decade of tinkering later, the scheme involves a complex system of discounts, free allocations, exemptions and, crucially, unlimited access to international emissions units. </p>
<p>After 2012, New Zealand companies used this access to buy large numbers of <a href="http://morganfoundation.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/ClimateCheat_Report8.pdf'">low-integrity units from the Ukraine</a>, enough to officially cover a quarter of all our emissions. The price of carbon, currently NZ$19, adds about 4c per litre to the price of petrol, and about 1c per kilowatt-hour to gas-powered electricity. So far, New Zealand’s ETS – like others worldwide – <a href="http://motu-www.motu.org.nz/wpapers/16_06.pdf">has not delivered</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="A%20new%20approach%20to%20emissions%20trading%20in%20a%20post-Paris%20climate">A new approach to emissions trading in a post-Paris climate</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>New Zealand’s state-owned mining company, Solid Energy, was pushed into some risky deals and ultimately into <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/newzealand-solidenergy/nz-state-owned-coal-miner-put-into-administration-idUSL3N10O1KP20150813">managed bankruptcy</a>. The remaining assets have been sold to Bathurst Resources. Chief executive Richard Tacon <a href="http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business/338497/solid-energy-sells-off-last-of-its-significant-assets">said recently</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… there is no viable alternative to coal. I mean we realise it’s a transition fuel, but there’s a lot of business, dairy … that rely on coal to be a reliable, storable source of energy. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Has even an Australian coal baron ever called coal a “transition fuel”? But then again perhaps Tacon has a point: the dairy company Fonterra burns more than half of all New Zealand’s coal, and the dairy industry as a whole emits <a href="http://www.mbie.govt.nz/info-services/sectors-industries/energy/energy-data-modelling/statistics/documents-image-library/coal.xlsx">2.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year burning coal to dry milk</a>.</p>
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<h2>Civil society perseveres</h2>
<p>Against this background, climate activists have had a hard row to hoe. Law student Sarah Thomson took the <a href="https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/04-11-2017/i-took-the-climate-change-minister-to-court-and-won-kind-of-now-im-looking-at-you-james-shaw/">government to court</a> in July 2017 over its inaction on climate change. In a <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/high-court-decision-climate-change-response-welcomed">victory for both sides</a>, the judge ruled that the government should have reviewed its 2050 target, but declined to order a judicial review because the government had since changed. </p>
<p>The youth climate group Generation Zero campaigned for a <a href="https://zerocarbonact.nz/">Zero Carbon Act</a>. The former parliamentary commissioner for the environment, Jan Wright, called for a <a href="http://www.pce.parliament.nz/media/1724/stepping-stones-web-oct-2017.pdf">UK-style Climate Change Act</a>. Thirty-nine mayors pressed the government to <a href="http://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/1707/Climate_Change_Declaration_Final.pdf">take stronger action</a>. </p>
<p>Data from a <a href="https://www.psych.auckland.ac.nz/en/about/our-research/research-groups/new-zealand-attitudes-and-values-study.html">20-year longitudinal study of social attitudes</a> in New Zealand show <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0174246">increasing agreement with climate change</a>. </p>
<p>A third review of the ETS removed a <a href="http://www.mfe.govt.nz/nzets/2015-16-review-outcomes">50% discount, with further strengthening scheduled</a>. The Environment Ministry was asked to advise <a href="http://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/what-government-doing/new-zealands-climate-change-programme">specifically on domestic emissions reductions</a>. The Productivity Commission, a government think tank, was asked to <a href="https://www.productivity.govt.nz/inquiry-content/3254?stage=2">report on a low-emission economy</a>. </p>
<p>However, during the election campaign, climate change was not a major issue, and official projections showed a continued rise in emissions. <a href="https://motu.nz/assets/Documents/our-work/environment-and-resources/emission-mitigation/shaping-new-zealands-low-emissions-future/Motu-Note-16.pdf">Under current policy settings, net emissions will rise a further 58% by 2030</a>. </p>
<h2>Aiming for carbon neutrality</h2>
<p>That brings the story to New Zealand First’s decision to choose a Labour-led government, with the Green Party in a confidence and supply arrangement. The Greens now have five ministers, including co-leader James Shaw as minister for climate change. Labour, having first introduced the ETS in 2008, will now amend it to try to make it work. </p>
<p>Already, since the election, Fonterra has <a href="https://www.fonterra.com/nz/en/our-stories/media/fonterra_partners_with_government_on_roadmap_to_low_emissions_future.html">announced</a> a commitment to cut processing emissions (mostly due to coal, but also natural gas and transport) by 30% by 2030, matching the national target, and 100% by 2050.</p>
<p>Carbon neutrality calls for, among other things, a complete stop to burning fossil fuels and to buying products that burn them, such as petrol cars. The year 2050 is not that far away. </p>
<p>In truth, by 2050 anything might happen: organic solar cells might become as cheap as newsprint, unleashing economic growth and making “sunlight-to-liquid fuels” economic – or not. Positive carbon feedbacks from the oceans, forests and Arctic methane might overwhelm our mitigation efforts. Climate sensitivity might surprise us on the high or low side. </p>
<p>We can’t say what parts of the natural world will survive climate change and the attempted sustainability transition. But New Zealand is taking a step in the right direction.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87245/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert McLachlan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As part of its 100-day priority plan, New Zealand’s new government has pledged to set a target of carbon neutrality by 2050, which means phasing out fossil fuels and products that burn them.Robert McLachlan, Professor in Applied Mathematics, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/808832017-07-12T05:13:25Z2017-07-12T05:13:25ZThe electricity sector needs to cut carbon by 45% by 2030 to keep Australia on track<p>Our <a href="https://climateworks.com.au/sites/default/files/documents/publications/cwa_power_up_report_final_12_jul.pdf">new ClimateWorks Australia report</a>, released today, shows that the electricity sector needs to deliver a much greater cut than the 28% emissions reduction modelled in the Finkel Review if Australia is to meet its overall climate target for 2030.</p>
<p>When Australia’s energy ministers <a href="http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/fears-finkel-review-reliability-obligations-will-slowdown-renewable-projects-20170609-gwo7se.html">meet this Friday</a> to discuss (among other things) the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/finkel-review-38844">Finkel Review</a> released last month, they will hopefully consider its recommendations for the electricity sector in the broader context of developing a long-term national climate policy.</p>
<p>According to our analysis, the electricity sector should cut emissions by at least 45% by 2030, as part of a move towards net zero emissions by 2050. This is well beyond current government policies, but is crucial if Australia is to meet its climate obligations in an economically responsible way.</p>
<h2>Climate commitments</h2>
<p>The federal government has <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-2030-climate-target-puts-us-in-the-race-but-at-the-back-45931">agreed to cut emissions by 26-28% on 2005 levels by 2030</a>. As a signatory to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465">Paris climate agreement</a>, Australia has also committed to global action to limit global warming to well below 2°C – and as a developed nation, that means reaching net zero emissions across the whole economy by about 2050.</p>
<p>Our analysis suggests that the electricity sector will need do a larger share than other sectors of the economy, because it has more technical potential to do so and can support emissions reductions in other sectors. In practice, reaching net zero emissions means shifting from coal and other fossil fuels to zero- or near-zero-carbon energy sources such as renewable electricity and bioenergy. Coal or gas will only be feasible if fitted with <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/carbon-capture-and-storage-1526">carbon capture and storage</a>. Achieving near zero-emissions electricity is a key step in the transition to a net zero-emissions economy, not least because of the future importance of electrically powered transport.</p>
<p>The good news is that our <a href="https://climateworks.com.au/project/national-projects/pathways-deep-decarbonisation-2050-how-australia-can-prosper-low-carbon">previous research</a> has shown that this is achievable with existing technologies, thanks to Australia’s rich renewable resources. </p>
<p>CSIRO and Energy Networks Australia have also shown that the electricity sector can reach zero emissions by 2050 while still maintaining security and reliability, and that this will actually <a href="http://www.energynetworks.com.au/sites/default/files/entr_final_report_web.pdf">save households an estimated A$414 a year compared with business as usual</a>.</p>
<h2>The 2030 target matters</h2>
<p>Cutting emissions faster now will make it easier and less economically disruptive to reach net zero by 2050. Yet the latest government emissions projections forecast that Australia’s emissions will grow by 9% by the end of the next decade, from <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/c2af8dab-b4cf-40a4-85bc-3a09657d9284/files/nggi-quarterly-update-december-2016.pdf">543 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) in 2016</a> to <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/9437fe27-64f4-4d16-b3f1-4e03c2f7b0d7/files/aust-emissions-projections-2016.pdf">592Mt CO2e in 2030</a>. </p>
<p>If the impact of existing policies (such as the <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/energy/national-energy-productivity-plan">National Energy Productivity Plan</a>, the <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/protection/ozone/legislation/opsggm-review/hfc-%20phase-down-faqs">phase-down of hydroflurocarbon emissions</a>, and state renewable energy targets) are taken into account in the projections, emissions could drop to 531Mt CO2e in 2030. This still leaves an 82-megatonne gap to reach even the minimum emissions reduction target of 26% percent below 2005 levels.</p>
<h2>Time to do more</h2>
<p>Our report, <a href="https://climateworks.com.au/sites/default/files/documents/publications/cwa_power_up_report_final_12_jul.pdf">Power Up: Australia’s electricity sector can and should do more to deliver on our climate commitments</a> shows that Australia’s electricity sector can cut emissions by up to 60% below 2005 levels by 2030. This is nearly six times more carbon reduction than is expected to be delivered by current policies, and could by itself fill the whole emissions reduction gap.</p>
<p>However, should the electricity sector only make a 28% reduction in its emissions, in line with the Finkel analysis, then it would only reduce emissions by 6Mt CO2e beyond current policies, leaving most of the effort of reducing emissions to other sectors such as buildings, transport, industry, waste and land management, where cutting carbon is likely to be significantly more expensive. </p>
<p>To reach this level of emissions reductions in the land sector, for instance, we would need to increase forest planting by more than three times the amount estimated to be delivered by the federal government’s <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction-fund">Emission Reduction Fund</a> in 2018, its peak year.</p>
<p>In its defence, the Finkel Review focused exclusively on the electricity sector and its analysis did not look at the impact that limited change in this sector would have on the required effort from other parts of the economy.</p>
<p>We therefore modelled various other scenarios, including one in which the share of renewables increases from 40% to 50% by 2030. This could enable the electricity sector to achieve double the carbon reductions delivered by efforts in line with the Finkel review. </p>
<p>Our third and fourth scenarios are aimed at meeting the <a href="http://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/reviews/targets-and-progress-review-3">more ambitious emissions target range recommended by the Climate Change Authority</a>, corresponding to a more progressive and therefore economically responsible trajectory towards net zero emissions. This requires Australia achieving a 45-60% reduction in emissions from the electricity sector by 2030.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177813/original/file-20170712-15626-bsmx79.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177813/original/file-20170712-15626-bsmx79.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177813/original/file-20170712-15626-bsmx79.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177813/original/file-20170712-15626-bsmx79.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177813/original/file-20170712-15626-bsmx79.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177813/original/file-20170712-15626-bsmx79.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177813/original/file-20170712-15626-bsmx79.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177813/original/file-20170712-15626-bsmx79.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Expected emissions reductions by 2030 (in megatonnes CO₂ equivalent) in four different policy areas under four different electricity scenarios.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ClimateWorks Australia</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The long view</h2>
<p>Like the Finkel Review, our report recommends that the federal government defines a specific emissions-reduction policy for the electricity sector, which in Finkel’s case was the Clean Energy Target. This will help to ensure a smooth shift to reliable, affordable, low-carbon energy.</p>
<p>Our report outlines the key principles that Australian governments need to consider in order to make effective decisions on climate change policy, with a view to achieving net zero emissions by mid-century.</p>
<p>These include providing clear long-term direction to support the industry’s investment decisions, and ensuring that decision-making to 2030 is compatible with reaching net zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>Climate policy should also be flexible so that it can be scaled up to meet future targets and allow a range of solutions, including the uptake of emerging technologies to make the transition faster and cheaper.</p>
<p>Given that net zero emissions is the ultimate goal, we need to move faster and achieve greater emissions reductions by 2030 to help deliver a fully decarbonised electricity system, on time and on budget.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80883/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amandine Denis-Ryan receives funding from federal and state government, as well as businesses, for specific analysis conducted for them. ClimateWorks Australia is an independent organisation, funded in majority through philanthropy.</span></em></p>A new analysis by ClimateWorks Australia says that the electricity sector needs to do far more to cut its carbon emissions than will be delivered by current policies.Amandine Denis-Ryan, Head of Research, ClimateWorks Australia, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/497272015-10-27T17:12:03Z2015-10-27T17:12:03ZCalifornia universities launch experiment to go carbon-neutral ‘at scale’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99728/original/image-20151026-18440-1r0k7w0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>What does it look like when a university decides to walk the walk as well as talk the talk on climate change? The University of California system – which encompasses 10 university campuses and two national scientific research laboratories – is about to find out.</p>
<p>Two years ago, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-more-scientists-are-needed-in-the-public-square-46451">Janet Napolitano</a>, the president of the University of California, pledged that the whole UC system would become the first university in the world to become <a href="http://www.ucop.edu/initiatives/carbon-neutrality-initiative.html">carbon neutral by 2025</a>. That is to say that in just 10 years, the hundreds of thousands of students, faculty, and staff in the UC system will no longer contribute to climate change while going about their normal business in the university.</p>
<p>Can the lessons we’re learning here in California be scaled up to the nation and the world? That’s the question that 50 researchers from a wide range of disciplines throughout the University of California ask in <a href="http://uc-carbonneutralitysummit2015.ucsd.edu/press/index.html">“Bending the Curve: Ten Scalable Solutions for Carbon Neutrality and Climate Stability,”</a> a new report which I was senior editor of. It’s being released October 27 at a summit meeting with Governor Jerry Brown, Napolitano, and many of the researchers, including atmospheric scientist V “Ram” Ramanathan, who will take the recommendations to the global climate summit in Paris next month. </p>
<h2>Getting to scale</h2>
<p>Can California be a model for confronting climate change? The answer is yes, but not, of course, in a simple way. If California were a country, it would have the eighth largest economy in the world. What works here will not automatically work everywhere. </p>
<p>But there are solutions that can scale, as we like to say here in the home of Silicon Valley. And perhaps surprisingly, they are not all technological. </p>
<p>Indeed, the big takeaway message from this report is that if science and engineering were enough to halt carbon emissions, climate change would already be well on the way to being solved. The rest of us – social scientists and scholars of the humanities, education, communication, the arts, policy, and law – could all go home. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99730/original/image-20151026-18411-s84ox2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99730/original/image-20151026-18411-s84ox2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99730/original/image-20151026-18411-s84ox2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99730/original/image-20151026-18411-s84ox2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99730/original/image-20151026-18411-s84ox2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99730/original/image-20151026-18411-s84ox2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99730/original/image-20151026-18411-s84ox2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99730/original/image-20151026-18411-s84ox2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Living lab: the University of California at San Diego operates a microgrid that features on-site solar energy, energy storage, and natural gas generators.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/pressrelease/uc_san_diego_receives_3_million_award_to_help_advance_energy_storage_s">University of California San Diego</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But we can’t, because it will take all of us working together not only to make the University of California’s campuses carbon-neutral, but to scale up solutions. </p>
<p>That means working with colleagues around the world to bend the curve of carbon emissions to neutral – or very close – worldwide by 2050 to stabilize Earth’s climate in the twenty-first century.</p>
<h2>Existing tech, public communication</h2>
<p>What will it take? The solutions in our report include: </p>
<p><strong>Target short-lived climate pollutants immediately.</strong> Short-lived climate pollutants – methane, black carbon, hydrofluorocarbons, and ozone – are powerful contributors to global warming. Unlike carbon dioxide, emissions of these pollutants can be cut back quickly, slowing warming in the near term, averting extreme climatic events, and providing breathing room for the world to fully transition to carbon neutrality. </p>
<p>If, for example, we reduce methane emissions by 50 percent, black carbon by 90 percent, and completely eliminate hydrofluorocarbons by 2030, we can cut the predicted global warming in half by 2050, our report finds. </p>
<p>Reducing these pollutants will also have immediate and dramatic health benefits for residents suffering from air pollution in cities worldwide, and it will help to decrease crop losses and water shortages associated with these climate pollutants.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99737/original/image-20151026-18431-12oimh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99737/original/image-20151026-18431-12oimh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99737/original/image-20151026-18431-12oimh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99737/original/image-20151026-18431-12oimh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99737/original/image-20151026-18431-12oimh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99737/original/image-20151026-18431-12oimh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99737/original/image-20151026-18431-12oimh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99737/original/image-20151026-18431-12oimh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The haze of Los Angeles: the UC report recommends focusing on cutting traditional air pollutants because the impact will be immediate and significant.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/48675268@N00/5777198035/in/photolist-9NvDGF-9QLYRe-7yP5Rs-7yJREp-7yJRUc-7yND11-ddmNQi-vQgdzj-dZbCSZ-rP8XqT-7RWowf-eW6fUf-rMmeoa-51szs5-rP288y-pQxVh-iRPZJh-8bbhdY-3G1DcJ-7yJRpe-rFqgMS-yrKCvM-6BjB8a-s6FmEB-sfCTid-iYNJ3j-rP5Lgy-mw8S3M-s9cKBB-rP5DPq-s4oicS-51onL4-s94zEq-s6UQqm-rPe1Pr-rP7c9E-rPdRwD-s6AbMa-s5WTi3-s62vyv-z4tQZY-rZGCxw-eVTQE6-qycmV7-r95Dif-amD5qM-rWPKjC-rMm9Qc-gn5i4k-rXCfRb">Dale/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Immediately scale up the technology we already have.</strong> Solar and wind power, electric light-duty vehicles, and efficient end-use devices, particularly for lighting, air conditioning, and industrial processes, are ready for widespread use now. </p>
<p>We need to promote and provide economic incentives for using existing technology now, while investing in research and development of emerging solutions – such as better batteries and other energy storage devices and cost-effective carbon sequestration – to fully transition the world to carbon neutrality around 2050 and then bend the carbon curve downward in the years beyond.</p>
<p><strong>Communication is crucial, and religious and community leaders are vital allies.</strong> Because fundamental changes in attitudes and behaviors are critical, climate change is a cultural phenomenon as well. </p>
<p>Messages that work for some people will not work for others. People need to see that they can take concrete steps in their lives to help solve our shared climate crisis. As <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/laudato-si">Pope Francis has so dramatically demonstrated</a>, religious and community leaders at every scale are crucial allies for creating a culture of climate action.</p>
<p><strong>Reduce emissions from the wealthiest, empower the poorest.</strong> Climate action requires dramatically lowering the carbon footprint of the wealthiest one billion people on the planet who contribute <a href="https://www.stthomas.edu/media/catholicstudies/center/events/humanandnaturalecologyseminar/Ram_5PagePaper.pdf">roughly 60 percent of the climate pollution</a>, while promoting clean energy solutions for the poorest three billion people, who will suffer the worst consequences of climate disruption. </p>
<p>Some of the poorest people in the world also live in and manage many of the great forests and other ecosystems that capture and store carbon. We need to learn from them and better support them in managing these crucial parts of our global climate system.</p>
<h2>Creating models for the world</h2>
<p>California’s success in curbing greenhouse gas emissions while continuing to thrive economically does offer lessons for other parts of the world. Chinese officials have visited the University of California to learn how Los Angeles has made dramatic progress in cleaning its air in recent decades. </p>
<p>California is now relentlessly ratcheting down on greenhouse gas emissions statewide. For example, electric utilities are required to purchase a large percentage of their electricity from renewable sources and the state has adopted a <a href="http://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/lcfs.htm">low-carbon fuel standard</a> for tailpipe emissions.</p>
<p>Governor Brown has also promoted voluntary climate action agreements at the subnational and international levels, which serve as a model for the voluntary agreements expected in Paris later this fall. </p>
<p>The University of California is becoming a living laboratory for technological and other solutions as it moves toward climate neutrality. Researchers in the UC system are working with colleagues around the world to share these and other lessons that are emerging, not just from the University of California, of course, but from research and action being undertaken around the globe today. </p>
<p>In this way, the University of California is much like every other university in the world, and we hope that others will join us as we figure out how to walk the walk as well as talk the talk in our common challenge to bend the curve of climate change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/49727/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jon Christensen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The University of California intends to be carbon-neutral by 2025 by implementing existing technologies and focusing on public education. Is this a model for decarbonizing at large scale?Jon Christensen, Adjunct assistant professor in the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, the Department of History, and the Center for Digital Humanities, University of California, Los AngelesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.