tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/climate-finance-23005/articlesClimate finance – The Conversation2024-01-04T16:53:12Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2177442024-01-04T16:53:12Z2024-01-04T16:53:12ZCentral banks should be fighting the climate crisis – here’s why<p>Climate finance was a major focus at the recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-applaud-the-climate-summits-loss-and-damage-fund-deal-just-yet-it-might-not-warrant-that-standing-ovation-218093">COP28 summit</a>, but one set of game-changing institutions remains largely missing in such conversations: central banks.</p>
<p>Central banks are public institutions, charged with maintaining economic stability through controlling the supply of money in an economy. These banks have enormous power to catalyse a more just, equitable and climate-stable future.</p>
<p>However, our <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17565529.2023.2268589">recent research</a> points out that their policies have been slowing down – rather than speeding up – transformative climate action. The problem is these banks focus on financial stability in the near term, which means propping up a status quo which promotes further climate instability. And that means they are making things more unstable in the long term.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17565529.2023.2268589?src=#:%7E:text=Additional%20information-,ABSTRACT,climate%20crisis%20and%20climate%20injustices.">Our research</a> suggests that long-term stability cannot be achieved without first disrupting and transforming the existing financial system. One way to do this would be for central banks to use tools <a href="https://www.boeckler.de/pdf/v_2022_10_22_sokol.pdf">already available</a> to them to trigger a short-term intentional disruption in order to redirect financial flows and create greater stability in the long-term – we call this <a href="https://www.fingeo.net/central-banks-the-climate-crisis-and-the-need-for-a-creative-disruption-sokol-and-stephens-2023/">“creative disruption”</a>. </p>
<h2>Short-term v long-term stability</h2>
<p>Central banks generally try to keep the economy stable by controlling <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/educational/explainers/tell-me-more/html/what_is_inflation.en.html">inflation</a> through interest rates. With climate disruptions causing more and more instability every year, <a href="https://www.ngfs.net/en">many central banks</a> are starting to take the climate more seriously. Yet, when price stability is threatened by increasing inflation or when the overall financial stability is questioned by a looming financial crisis, central banks quickly forget about the climate.</p>
<p>For example, recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-interest-rates-really-going-to-keep-rising-sharply-201577">aggressive increases</a> in interest rates have <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/renewables-funds-see-record-outflows-rising-rates-costs-hit-shares-2023-10-09/">disproportionately hit the renewable energy sector</a> and made it harder for people and governments to raise money for other measures that would help cut emissions or adapt to climate change. From a long-term perspective and from a climate justice lens, this is counterproductive. </p>
<p>To maintain short-term economic stability when COVID hit, central banks around the world quickly lent money to commercial banks in a variety of ways – even at <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/how-do-negative-interest-rates-work-2021-02-04/">negative interest rates</a>. But no strings were attached, so banks lent this money to the <a href="https://www.bankingonclimatechaos.org">fossil fuel industry</a> and other wealthy corporate interests, among others.</p>
<p>During the pandemic many central banks also increased the money supply, in a process called <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/educational/explainers/show-me/html/app_infographic.en.html">quantitative easing</a>, to stimulate the economy, and some of this money ended up in the <a href="https://neweconomics.org/uploads/files/NEF-Decarbonise-BoE-report.pdf">pockets of carbon intensive industries</a>. These efforts to stabilise financial markets reinforced and exacerbated huge inequities in wealth and power, and were a missed opportunity to increase support for a green economy. </p>
<h2>Central banking, climate-justice style</h2>
<p>That’s why in our <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17565529.2023.2268589">latest research</a> we analysed central banks from the lens of <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40641-022-00186-6">climate justice</a>. <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/oa-edit/10.4324/9781003199816-17/feminist-antiracist-values-climate-justice-jennie-stephens">Climate justice</a> is an approach to climate action that goes beyond a narrow focus on decarbonisation and emissions and focuses on social change and economic equity as a way to make people less vulnerable to climate change. This means restructuring the financial system to work for the benefit of all people rather than just the top 1%.</p>
<p>So instead of stabilising markets by supporting corporate interests and the financial sector in the short-term, we suggest that central banks need to start prioritising long-term stability. An intentional short-term “creative disruption” would reverse established financial flows and would start funnelling investments towards the most vulnerable.</p>
<p>For example, central banks could use their power to create money to help local governments finance ambitious climate infrastructure projects or directly support community-oriented public investment programmes. </p>
<p>Rather than continuing to focus narrowly on inflation to determine economy-wide interest rates, central banks could create <a href="https://greencentralbanking.com/2023/08/01/dual-interest-rates-green-investment-inflation/">different interest rates</a> for different kinds of investments – establishing high interest rates for carbon-intensive activities and low or zero-interest rates for renewable energy. The <a href="https://greencentralbanking.com/2022/08/02/japan-green-lending-scheme-sayuri-shirai/">Bank of Japan</a> is one of a few central banks that have already started experimenting with such schemes.</p>
<p>Central banks can also create zero or negative-interest rates for climate justice investments. Imagine households could insulate homes, install heat pumps and solar panels – and get paid for it. And the most vulnerable communities should be served first, not last. If central banks can use negative interest rates to save banks during the COVID crisis, they surely can use such tools to save people and the planet in the climate crisis. Innovations like this could transform the financial landscape, and reshape the financial injustices that dominate today. And there is <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17565529.2023.2268589">much more</a> central banks can do. </p>
<p>Central banks have the power and the tools to trigger a rapid transformation towards a more just, fossil-fuel free future at a global scale. Instead of continuing to use their power to accelerate climate chaos, central banks could catalyse a shift toward a more equitable financial system. Going forward, the transformative role of central banks needs to be at the top of the climate policy agenda.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A focus on economic stability in the near-term makes the climate crisis worse in the long-term.Martin Sokol, Associate Professor of Economic Geography, Trinity College DublinJennie C. Stephens, Dean’s Professor of Sustainability Science & Policy, Northeastern UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2201422023-12-20T13:38:01Z2023-12-20T13:38:01ZWhy the COP28 climate summit mattered, and what to watch for in 2024<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566693/original/file-20231219-17-i3ffem.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C9%2C2038%2C1352&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry and his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua, had front-row seats at COP28's final session. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/unfccc/53394837161/in/album-72177720313353788/">Kiara Worth/UN Climate Change via Flickr,</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Reading down the lengthy <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2023_L17_adv.pdf">final agreement of the COP28</a> United Nations climate conference held in December 2023, you’ll go a long way before finding a strong, active verb. The lengthy recitation of climate impacts “notes with concern” and occasionally with “significant concern” <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2023">glaring gaps</a> in countries’ current policies. But while countries volunteered pledges to act, they were less keen to have those pledges framed as binding agreements in the final text.</p>
<p>Reactions to COP28’s conclusion have been understandably mixed. Going into the talks, the world was <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-what-is-the-global-stocktake-and-could-it-accelerate-climate-action/">more on track</a> to avert catastrophic warming than it would have been without the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">2015 Paris Agreement</a>, but a long way from where it needs to be.</p>
<p>Even <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/iea-assessment-of-the-evolving-pledges-at-cop28">if all the pledges made at COP28 are implemented</a>, the world will still exceed the Paris goal of keeping global warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) compared to preindustrial temperatures.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566601/original/file-20231219-27-qde9s6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart shows if all COP28 pledges were met, the world would be closer to the goal of keeping emissions under 1.5 C but not on track." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566601/original/file-20231219-27-qde9s6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566601/original/file-20231219-27-qde9s6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566601/original/file-20231219-27-qde9s6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566601/original/file-20231219-27-qde9s6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566601/original/file-20231219-27-qde9s6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566601/original/file-20231219-27-qde9s6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566601/original/file-20231219-27-qde9s6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The Climate Action Tracker assessment of countries’ pledges at COP28 to reduce emissions shows progress toward the 2030 goal, but a large gap.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/cop28-initiatives-create-buzz-will-only-reduce-emissions-if-followed-through/">Copyright Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute</a></span>
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<p>Politically, the agreement may have been the best that nations could reach at this time of <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/age-great-power-distraction-kimmage-notte">rising geopolitical tensions</a> and under the leadership of the United Arab Emirates. The UAE is a country of contradictions – a petrostate with renewable energy ambitions, keen to emerge onto the global stage as a green champion, but also <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/30/the-new-scramble-for-africa-how-a-uae-sheikh-quietly-made-carbon-deals-for-forests-bigger-than-uk">accused of colonization tactics</a> in Africa.</p>
<p>Most headlines have focused on the COP28 agreement’s mention of fossil fuels for the first time. The convoluted language called for countries to “<a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2023_L17_adv.pdf">contribute” to</a> “transitioning away from fossil fuels,” not the phaseout supported by a majority of countries. With an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/05/record-number-of-fossil-fuel-lobbyists-get-access-to-cop28-climate-talks">unprecedented number of energy industry lobbyists</a> on hand, the consensus was described by the most vulnerable countries as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-cop28-failed-the-worlds-small-islands-219938">litany of loopholes</a>.</p>
<p>The final agreement was, in large parts, written in a way to secure the future of the natural gas industry. It portrayed natural gas as a necessary bridge fuel while renewable energy expands, an argument that was <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2023">disproved by the International Energy Agency</a> before COP28. The agreement also furthered the expectation of continued heavy subsidies for carbon capture and storage, which many energy analysts and economists have dismissed as <a href="https://apnews.com/article/carbon-capture-removal-cop28-fossil-fuels-oil-gas-2bc53c6a8df6d337c1afcabad56377e8">unscalable at a reasonable cost</a>.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the UAE blasted through some of the old shibboleths of climate negotiation. It broke the polarity of climate finance – the Global South waiting for the Global North to fulfill its promises of public finance – by <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/12/10/what-is-alterra-the-uaes-30-billion-green-investment-fund/">focusing on private investment</a> and putting tens of billions of dollars of its sovereign wealth into play. It was not able to persuade others to match its generosity, but there will be more pressure in 2024.</p>
<p>So, what should we look for in the coming months?</p>
<h2>1. Turning new energy pledges into action</h2>
<p>COP28 included <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/af71fc48-b89f-4920-a35b-2867b7adcc0c">significant commitments toward an energy transition</a> away from fossil fuels, including pledges to triple <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/global-renewables-and-energy-efficiency-pledge">renewable energy capacity, increase energy efficiency</a> and cut <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/2/at-cop28-oil-companies-pledge-to-lower-methane-emissions">methane emissions</a>.</p>
<p>Now it’s up to countries and companies to show progress. That will depend on investments and overcoming supply bottlenecks, as well as new policies and, in the case of methane, <a href="https://www.piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/how-international-agreement-methane-emissions-can-pave-way-enhanced">standards for imports and exports</a>.</p>
<p>The new <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/report/global-cooling-pledge">Global Cooling Pledge</a> to reduce emissions from cooling by 68% while increasing access to cooling technology is increasingly critical. <a href="https://www.iea.org/energy-system/buildings/space-cooling">Demand for cooling is driving up energy demand</a> across the globe, particularly in populous countries hard hit by extreme heat, such as India. Developing technologies that help the billions of people most at risk and improve cold supply chains for food and medicine will require more investment and greater priority from governments.</p>
<p>Watch for <a href="https://www.climateresilience.org/">more cities to appoint heat czars</a> to spearhead efforts to protect populations from extreme heat, <a href="https://time.com/6336537/america-tree-equity-urban-climate-solution/">adoption of tree equity plans</a> to increase shade and cooling, and more investment in cooling technologies.</p>
<h2>2. Deploying innovations in finance</h2>
<p>COP28 saw significant innovation in finance, including the UAE’s announcement of the Alterra Fund – a <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/12/10/what-is-alterra-the-uaes-30-billion-green-investment-fund/">$30 billion commitment</a> to mobilize private investment in developing countries.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.iosco.org/news/pdf/IOSCONEWS717.pdf">International Organization of Securities Commissions</a> sent a strong statement in support of <a href="https://www.ifrs.org/groups/international-sustainability-standards-board/">corporate sustainability disclosure standards</a> and welcomed <a href="https://icvcm.org/icvcm-and-vcmi-join-forces-to-operationalize-a-high-integrity-market-to-accelerate-global-climate-action/">corporate integrity standards in the voluntary carbon markets</a>. Look for more countries to add rules around <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-coalition">“net-zero emissions” pledges</a>.</p>
<h2>3. Putting trade to work for the climate</h2>
<p>Linked to finance and investment is trade, which <a href="https://www.thebanker.com/How-trade-and-trade-finance-can-assist-the-transition-to-net-zero-1701941013">COP28 welcomed</a> to the main stage for the first time.</p>
<p>There are two things to look for in 2024. First, look for the World Trade Organization, International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to align their advice to governments on effective carbon pricing.</p>
<p>Second, while trade and climate negotiators traditionally move in different circles, they will <a href="https://earth.org/free-trade-agreement/">need to work together</a> to ensure the trade system supports climate action. For example, making sure green products and services are not made more expensive than their polluting alternatives.</p>
<h2>4. Fixing the carbon markets</h2>
<p>2023 was a year of pushback on the voluntary carbon markets, as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/18/revealed-forest-carbon-offsets-biggest-provider-worthless-verra-aoe">investigations questioned their effectiveness</a>. COP28’s failure to advance agreements on carbon markets under <a href="https://www.undp.org/energy/blog/what-article-6-paris-agreement-and-why-it-important">Article 6 of the Paris Agreement</a> means they will be a focus in 2024.</p>
<p>In this case, <a href="https://carbonmarketwatch.org/2023/12/13/cop28-article-6-failure-avoids-a-worse-outcome/">no deal was better than a bad deal</a>, but the delay means countries that plan to use carbon markets to meet their net-zero targets are left with uncertainty.</p>
<h2>5. Getting more adaptation funding where it’s needed</h2>
<p>An agreement on a global goal on adaptation, a collective commitment to build resilience and adaptive capacity across the world, was finally reached, but negotiators left the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-what-would-an-ambitious-global-goal-on-adaptation-look-like-at-cop28/">details to be filled in over the next two years</a>.</p>
<p>To get adaptation funding flowing to where it is most needed, top-down discussions will need to start, including <a href="https://www.wri.org/initiatives/locally-led-adaptation/principles-locally-led-adaptation">locally led efforts</a>. Look for adaptation to become a much bigger part of countries’ second-generation climate plans to be submitted to the U.N. before COP30.</p>
<h2>6. Turning new food and ag pledges into action</h2>
<p>A majority of the world’s countries, 159, signed the <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/food-and-agriculture">UAE Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems and Climate Action</a>. They agreed to include food systems, which contribute a significant percentage of global emissions and which are fundamental to adaptation and resilience, in the next generation of climate plans to be submitted to the U.N.</p>
<p>The pledge was thin on details, however, so how each country turns words into actions will be crucial in 2024.</p>
<h2>The next big climate milestones</h2>
<p>In late 2024, COP29 will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan – another oil-producing nation. The focus will be on finance. But the <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/cop28-agreement-signals-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-fossil-fuel-era">next big milestone is in 2025</a>, when governments must submit their future pledges and plans for reducing emissions.</p>
<p>COP30 is to be held in Belen in the Brazilian state of Para – the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-great-amazon-land-grab-how-brazils-government-is-clearing-the-way-for-deforestation-173416">frontline of Amazon protection</a>. This will bring a focus on nature-based solutions, but from the perspective of the Global South. President Lula da Silva, who is also the host of the G20 in 2024, wants to see change in the international trade and finance system to reflect shifts in the global economy.</p>
<p>COP28 set forth important initiatives but balked at binding commitments. As countries work on their next generation of plans to try to get the world on track to limit global warming, they will have to consider the whole of their economies and cover all greenhouse gases. The world can’t afford to balk twice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220142/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel Kyte is affiliated with VCMI - Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative, and Climate Resilience for All CRA</span></em></p>The UN climate conference brought some progress. A former UN official who has been involved in international climate policy for years explains what has to happen now for that progress to pay off.Rachel Kyte, Visiting Professor of Practice, Blavatnik School of Government, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2196962023-12-14T14:14:42Z2023-12-14T14:14:42ZCOP28 agreement on adapting to climate change kicks the real challenge down the road<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565771/original/file-20231214-21-xfed00.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3456%2C2302&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/banda-aceh-indonesia-april-1-2022-2141864731">Ariful Azmi Usman/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>COP28 concluded late on Wednesday morning to a mixed reaction. The Dubai agreement extracted a promise from nearly 200 countries to transition away from fossil fuels, but it leaves many questions unanswered when it comes to keeping global average temperatures from warming by more than 1.5°C. The world is rapidly running out of time to limit temperatures to this level – <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">a crucial threshold</a> for many communities living in low-lying islands and delicate ecosystems such as coral reefs.</p>
<p>The last year was the <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/record-warm-november-consolidates-2023-warmest-year">hottest on record</a>, with catastrophic floods in Libya, extreme heat in south Asia, Europe, China and the US, and droughts across east Africa which were all made <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/2023/">more likely</a> as a result of climate change.</p>
<p>Even if the world keeps to 1.5°C, countries will still need to adapt to the effects of a harsher climate. If temperatures exceed 1.5°C, this will be even harder. At COP28, countries agreed the first targets to guide the <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2023_L18_adv.pdf">global effort to adapt</a>. </p>
<p>So, do they go far enough to address the growing scale of climate impacts?</p>
<h2>Adaptation is essential</h2>
<p>I am a researcher writing a book about the hard choices the world must make to adapt to climate change. For 12 years I have been working on adaptation planning and finance, attending the UN negotiations and <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/adaptation-and-resilience/workstreams/glasgow-sharm-el-sheikh-WP-GGGA">researching</a> how to make adaptation <a href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk/risk-disaster-reduction/research-projects/2023/nov/accountable-adaptation">more ambitious and inclusive</a>.</p>
<p>Every fraction of a degree of warming avoided by cutting emissions will give communities more breathing space to adapt. Adaptation involves making changes to accommodate the hotter climate and lessen its effects. </p>
<p>Farmers in sub-Saharan Africa struggling to grow food due to changes in rainfall can adapt with improved forms of irrigation and new crop varieties to maintain a similar level of productivity. Coastal communities can build seawalls to protect them from storm surges or plant mangrove forests to prevent the land eroding as fast. Bangladesh has developed early warning systems and invested in cyclone shelters.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People and livestock crowd in a room with barred windows." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565772/original/file-20231214-21-29bvc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565772/original/file-20231214-21-29bvc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565772/original/file-20231214-21-29bvc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565772/original/file-20231214-21-29bvc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565772/original/file-20231214-21-29bvc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565772/original/file-20231214-21-29bvc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565772/original/file-20231214-21-29bvc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bangladesh will face more intense storms in a hotter future.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/coxs-bazar-bangladesh-may-14-2023-2306045157">SK Hasan Ali/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The global framework for adaptation’s targets set out what countries must do and where the most progress needs to be made for goals like reducing climate-induced water scarcity. Even to get this agreement was a success given <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2018.1485546">the technical and political challenges</a> in measuring something like adaptation, which covers so many different things, from giving farmers in Asia better information on rainfall to increasing shade and cool spaces in cities.</p>
<p>We have limited ways to understand if the world is on track for many of these areas and the agreement contains a two-year work programme to develop indicators. We have more information on the systems and plans needed. For example, <a href="https://www.undrr.org/reports/global-status-MHEWS-2023#">101 countries</a> have multi-hazard early warning systems in place – the goal aims for this to be all countries by 2027.</p>
<p>The framework will guide investment and shape the implementation of adaptation measures for the next decade. It will allow the global community to check if this process is on track, and to change course if it is not.</p>
<h2>Will the goal meet the scale of the challenge?</h2>
<p>A key sticking point for developing countries across the negotiations in Dubai was securing enough money from developed countries (the largest historical emitters and so the biggest culprits of climate chaos) to actually implement these necessary actions. </p>
<p>Developed countries have failed to deliver the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-glasgow-climate-pact/cop26-outcomes-finance-for-climate-adaptation">US$40 billion (£31 billion) to US$50 billion a year</a> promised as part of a doubling of money for adaptation agreed in 2021. This is part of the overall finance target of US$100 billion a year – agreed for both mitigation (cutting emissions) and adaptation back in 2009. </p>
<p>The latest <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2023">UN report</a> on adaptation showed that only US$21 billion was delivered in 2021, while financial needs for adaptation are 10-18 times higher than the amount of public finance available. </p>
<p>The agreement on adaptation in Dubai talks generally of the need for more finance, but makes few commitments. This is not enough, but detailed work on <a href="https://unfccc.int/NCQG">the next financial deal</a> is scheduled at COP29. The agreement next year will aim to set <a href="https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2023-11/untangling-finance-goal.pdf">a new target for mobilising money</a> to reduce emissions and adapt – the target will replace the US$100 billion a year that runs until 2025.</p>
<p>Research shows that progress on adaptation has been <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf">slow</a>, fragmented and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01170-y">uneven across the world</a>. Between <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/">3.3 and 3.6 billion people</a> live in places that are expected to be highly vulnerable to climate change. In Africa, tens of thousands of people will die from <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf">extreme heat</a> unless radical measures are taken to adapt. Between <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf">800 million and 3 billion people</a> will not have enough water at 2°C global warming – and up to 4 billion at 4°C. We also have very little evidence that funded adaptation measures are <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01170-y">working</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A car park with large solar panel shades." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565774/original/file-20231214-19-imxjgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565774/original/file-20231214-19-imxjgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565774/original/file-20231214-19-imxjgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565774/original/file-20231214-19-imxjgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565774/original/file-20231214-19-imxjgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565774/original/file-20231214-19-imxjgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565774/original/file-20231214-19-imxjgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Adaptation measures can also cut emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-solar-panels-installed-over-2158166313">Bilanol/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>The agreement in Dubai signals that the adaptation effort is off track and highlights areas for action such as water, food, healthcare and infrastructure. Critically, it offers little detail yet to check on global progress – we will need to wait one year for a new financial target and another two years for indicators that can assess progress in adapting lives and livelihoods.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17565529.2023.2204070">Frameworks can create incentives</a> for action, and it is vital the new global framework creates pressure for ambition and finance. But countries will need to wait to agree the detail on the money and the targets that will give it the teeth it needs.</p>
<p>While COP28 yielded incremental progress, the world waits for a leap forward in the pace and scale of climate adaptation.</p>
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<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susannah Fisher receives funding from a UK Research and Innovation Future Leaders Fellowship (grant number MR/W008572/1).</span></em></p>Even with rapid reductions in emissions, we will still need to adapt to a harsher climate.Susannah Fisher, Principal Research Fellow, Department of Geography, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2196552023-12-14T14:10:46Z2023-12-14T14:10:46ZCOP28: Five major outcomes from the latest UN climate summit<p>The latest UN climate summit, COP28, was always going to be controversial. It was held in a state whose economy is heavily dependent on oil and gas – the United Arab Emirates. The summit president, Sultan Al Jaber, remains head of the <a href="https://www.adnoc.ae/">Abu Dhabi National Oil Company</a> and recently declared the UAE would <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/07/meet-the-oil-man-tasked-with-saving-the-planet-cop28">double oil and gas output</a> this decade. </p>
<p>This was hardly the strong leadership to move away from fossil fuels that many had hoped for. More than 100,000 delegates were registered (twice as many as any previous COP) of which <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67607289">more than 2,000</a> were official representatives of fossil fuel companies. </p>
<p>But COP28 started well with <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/11/30/countries-pledge-400m-to-set-up-loss-and-damage-fund/">US$400 million</a> (£314 million) being announced on day one for more vulnerable countries to cope with climate disasters – and talk was all about a new climate agreement including the phasing out of all fossil fuels. </p>
<p>Now that the summit is over and the dust has settled, we examine the key outcomes.</p>
<h2>1. The end of fossil fuels?</h2>
<p>Perhaps surprisingly, this was the first COP to officially acknowledge that fossil fuels are the root cause of climate change. And it is worth remembering that fossil fuels were only first mentioned in an international climate agreement in <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-glasgow-climate-pact-171799">2021 at COP26</a> in Glasgow. Yet it still lacked ambition.</p>
<p>Most countries wanted a strong statement on phasing out or at the very least phase down (reducing) fossil fuels. Instead countries agreed a <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2023_L17_adv.pdf">statement</a> saying we must “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science”. </p>
<p>This language – a “transition away” rather than a full “phase-out” – is not as strong as many wanted. As a statement made by Samoa on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States put it, these decisions are “an incremental advancement over business as usual” when what is needed is “<a href="https://www.aosis.org/cop28-closing-plenary-aosis-statement-on-gst-decision/">exponential step-change</a>” to keep 1.5°C alive. </p>
<p>In theory the agreement heralds the end of the fossil fuel era, but it offers an intentional loophole for countries and companies to “abate” the use of fossil fuels by using carbon capture and storage. This justifies the continued burning of oil and gas.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-cop28-climate-agreement-is-a-step-backwards-on-fossil-fuels-219753">The COP28 climate agreement is a step backwards on fossil fuels</a>
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<h2>2. Loss and damage</h2>
<p>“Loss and damage” is the term given for finance for developing countries that have suffered a major climate change-related disaster. A fund was agreed at <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-will-be-remembered-as-a-failure-heres-what-went-wrong-194982">COP27</a> in 2022 and recent announcements mean US$700 million has now been pledged. </p>
<p>While this is welcome news it is a drop in the ocean compared with the <a href="https://www.lossanddamagecollaboration.org/pages/the-loss-and-damage-fund-and-pledges-at-cop28-shall-i-compare-thee-to-a-summers-day-or-to-the-annual-earnings-of-a-megastar-footballer">US$400 billion</a> actually needed. It’s also insignificant compared to, for instance, the estimated <a href="https://www.lossanddamagecollaboration.org/pages/the-loss-and-damage-fund-and-pledges-at-cop28-shall-i-compare-thee-to-a-summers-day-or-to-the-annual-earnings-of-a-megastar-footballer">US$7 billion</a> cost of building the COP28 venue Dubai Expo City.</p>
<p>It is still not clear how the fund will work, what the major funding streams will be or whether the allocation of finance will be community-driven and <a href="https://ucl.scienceopen.com/hosted-document?doi=10.14324/111.444/000220.v1">corruption free</a>. And despite opposition, it has been agreed the <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/11/07/world-bank-to-initially-host-loss-and-damage-fund-under-draft-deal/">World Bank will administer the fund</a> for a negotiated fee of 24% – meaning one in four dollars pledged will never make it to the countries in need. </p>
<p>So overall, this summit did not deliver on climate finance and this key issue has been pushed to COP29 November 2024.</p>
<h2>3. Renewable energy and transitional fuels</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/over-110-countries-set-join-cop28-deal-triple-renewable-energy-2023-12-02/">pledge</a> signed by 118 countries to triple renewable energy capacity and double the global rate of energy efficiency by 2030 is a step in the right direction. </p>
<p>It is worth noting the text of the pledge also recognises the role “transitional fuels” will have in maintaining energy security for the time being. This makes the use of climate-damaging <a href="https://www.liquidgasuk.org/about/what-is-lpg">liquefied petroleum gas</a> acceptable. This isn’t ideal, but in developing countries it is still a <a href="https://theconversation.com/lpg-is-a-fossil-fuel-experts-explain-why-its-still-africas-best-option-for-cleaner-greener-cooking-for-now-197723">healthier and less polluting option</a> for home cooking and heating than burning wood or other biomass. Nonetheless, there really should be a timeline attached to the use of these transitional fuels. </p>
<p>On the sidelines of COP28, green hydrogen also had its moment. Produced through a process that splits water using electricity generated from wind or solar power, industries pledged to scale up zero-emissions fuel derived from renewables-based hydrogen to <a href="https://climatechampions.unfccc.int/maritime-green-hydrogen-call-to-action/">11 million tonnes by 2030</a>. </p>
<h2>4. Oil and gas decarbonisation charter</h2>
<p>Over 50 <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/energysource/the-oil-and-gas-decarbonization-charter-is-a-start-but-more-work-remains/">national and international oil companies</a>, representing about 40% of global production, signed a decarbonisation charter. The initiative sets three main aims: to achieve net zero emissions in each company’s direct operations (as opposed to the use of their products) by or before 2050, to achieve near-zero methane leakage from the production of oil and gas by 2030, and to achieve zero routine flaring (burning excess gas) by 2030. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565802/original/file-20231214-29-rzhsvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Gas flare at an oil refinery" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565802/original/file-20231214-29-rzhsvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565802/original/file-20231214-29-rzhsvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565802/original/file-20231214-29-rzhsvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565802/original/file-20231214-29-rzhsvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565802/original/file-20231214-29-rzhsvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565802/original/file-20231214-29-rzhsvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565802/original/file-20231214-29-rzhsvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Gas flaring is a major environmental problem.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/gas-flare-oil-refinery-kimanissabahmalaysia-35-652862932">hkhtt hj / shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>The last two pledges are particularly important as methane is a very powerful (but short-lived) greenhouse gas and a quarter of all man-made methane emissions come from <a href="https://about.bnef.com/blog/the-oil-and-gas-industrys-methane-problem-in-four-charts/">oil and gas production</a>. So reducing these emissions is a quick win which buys us time. But again, 60% of world oil and gas production is not covered by this charter. These companies will continue to save money by venting methane and flaring natural gas. </p>
<h2>5. Global stocktake – 1.5°C is at risk</h2>
<p>The “global stocktake”, finalised at COP28, was the first time the global climate regime took stock of how the international community has collectively reduced its greenhouse gas emissions since the Paris Agreement in 2015. </p>
<p>The biggest takeaway from the stocktake told us what we already knew – the world is way behind and the 1.5°C warming limit agreed in Paris is at risk. </p>
<p>While the big takeaway from COP28 will be that countries have come up with a deal that calls for them to transition away from fossil fuels while acknowledging the need for a “deep, rapid” reduction in emissions, the weak language is at complete odds with the official global stocktake. </p>
<p>So what next? Well, another year of negotiation and pushing for countries to increase their ambition so net zero can be achieved by 2050 with increased financing. The next UN climate summit, COP29, will be <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/12/09/oil-reliant-azerbaijan-chosen-to-host-cop29-climate-talks/">in Azerbaijan</a>, another major oil and gas producer with a <a href="https://theconversation.com/azerbaijans-use-of-force-in-nagorno-karabakh-risks-undermining-key-international-norms-signaling-to-dictators-that-might-makes-right-214440">poor human rights record</a>, and one that is strongly influenced by Russia. </p>
<p>But the real challenge will be forcing countries to raise their commitment to cutting emissions so that the 1.5°C limit isn’t lost.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Maslin is the UNFCCC designated point of contact for UCL. He is co-director of the London NERC Doctoral Training Partnership and a member of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group. He is a member of the Sopra-Steria CSR Board, Sheep Included Ltd, Lansons and NetZeroNow advisory boards. He has received grant funding from the NERC, EPSRC, ESRC, DFG, Royal Society, DIFD, BEIS, DECC, FCO, Innovate UK, Carbon Trust, UK Space Agency, European Space Agency, Research England, Wellcome Trust, Leverhulme Trust, CIFF, Sprint2020, and British Council. He has received funding from the BBC, Lancet, Laithwaites, Seventh Generation, Channel 4, JLT Re, WWF, Hermes, CAFOD, HP and Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Professor Priti Parikh is a fellow and trustee for Institution of Civil Engineers. She is aboard member for Happold Foundation and Engineers Against Poverty. Research funding sources include UKRI, Royal Academy of Engineering, Water Aid, British Academy, Bboxx Ltd, UCL, Royal Society and British Council. She is currently part funded by the Royal Academy of Engineering/Bboxx Research Chair fellowship. Her consultancy has received funding from AECOM, Cambridge Institute for Sustainable Leadership, Water and Sanitation for the Urban Poor, UNHABITAT, Arup, ITAD and GTZ</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Chin-Yee works with the World Bank, Global Maritime Forum and UN Foundation among others to foster green initiatives. He has previously held positions within the United Nations Education, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO), as well being the Konrad Adenauer fellow (KAS) for the European Centre for Energy and Resource Security, King's College London and a researcher on an London School of Economics and Political Sciences collaborative project funded by the Arab Universities Programme, which is supported by the Emirates Foundation.</span></em></p>Weak language at COP28 is at complete odds with the officially-recognised science.Mark Maslin, Professor of Natural Sciences, UCLPriti Parikh, Professor of Infrastructure Engineering and International Development, UCLSimon Chin-Yee, Lecturer in International Development, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2176342023-12-07T16:19:33Z2023-12-07T16:19:33ZBillions have been raised to restore forests, with little success. Here’s the missing ingredient<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564271/original/file-20231207-29-l6900w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6720%2C4476&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cropped-photo-african-american-farm-worker-2183118243">Yaroslav Astakhov/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Protecting and restoring forests is one of the cheapest and most effective options for mitigating the carbon emissions heating Earth. </p>
<p>Since the third UN climate change summit, held in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, different mechanisms have been trialled to raise money and help countries reduce deforestation and restore degraded forests. First there was Kyoto’s clean development mechanism, then the UN-REDD programme initiated at COP13 in Bali in 2008. Voluntary carbon market schemes came into effect after COP21 in Paris in 2015, but all met with limited success. </p>
<p>In some cases, these schemes <a href="https://gspp.berkeley.edu/assets/uploads/page/Quality-Assessment-of-REDD+-Carbon-Crediting-EXECUTIVE-SUMMARY.pdf">interfered</a> with communities that have tended and nurtured forests for generations, restricting their access to the forest for fuel, grazing and food. Meanwhile, deforestation has proceeded under the aegis of global markets hungry for beef, palm oil <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-supply-chains-are-devouring-whats-left-of-earths-unspoilt-forests-198625">and other commodities</a>.</p>
<p>The world is far off track to reduce deforestation to zero by 2030, or meet its target of restoring over 350 million hectares.</p>
<p>At the current climate talks, COP28 in Dubai, Brazil has proposed a “tropical forests forever fund” with an outlay of US$250 billion, which would <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/news/2023/12/COP28-Galvanizes-Finance-and-Global-Unity-for-Forests-and-the-Ocean">pay countries</a> to conserve or expand their forests. But how can the world be confident that the result will be different this time?</p>
<p>The work of one academic, Nobel laureate Elinor Ostrom, can tell us why previous efforts to restore forests have failed – and what a more effective approach might look like.</p>
<h2>Bundles of rights</h2>
<p>Nearly 295 million people in developing countries across Africa, Asia and Latin America live on land that has been identified as <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-020-01282-2#:%7E:text=Forest%2520landscape%2520restoration%2520that%2520prioritizes,environmental%2520justice%2520and%2520sustainable%2520development.">ripe for forest restoration</a>. The right to extract timber or plant trees ultimately lies with the state in these places, so it is up to the state to set targets for increasing tree coverage or how much carbon the land stores, regardless of how it affects the <a href="https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/70/11/947/5903754">communities living there</a>.</p>
<p>Over 73% (about 3 billion hectares) of global forested land is <a href="https://www.fao.org/forest-resources-assessment/2020/en/">under state control</a>. One of the arguments for allowing governments to retain ownership of these forests, including the right to manage them, is the notion of the “tragedy of the commons”: in the absence of an all-powerful governing entity, people will overuse shared resources.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three rangers in military-style uniforms standing in a tropical forest thicket." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564286/original/file-20231207-23-c896oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564286/original/file-20231207-23-c896oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564286/original/file-20231207-23-c896oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564286/original/file-20231207-23-c896oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564286/original/file-20231207-23-c896oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564286/original/file-20231207-23-c896oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564286/original/file-20231207-23-c896oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Strict state control is not always a recipe for success in conservation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/kibale-forest-uganda-oct-26-2017-1518063899">JordiStock/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In fact, Ostrom’s work on the commons in forests, fishing grounds and grazing pastures shows that communities tend to protect and sustainably use common resources – provided they have rights, tenure, and the ability to decide rules for managing them.</p>
<p>A recent <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01863-6">study</a> examined forest commons in 15 tropical countries, where governments own the forest but have allowed local communities informal or customary rights of use and management. The authors noted that these forest commons had a high variety of tree species, and offered enough fodder and fuel wood to sustain livelihoods in the local community. The wealth of biomass in these forests indicated a lot of carbon was also being stored.</p>
<p>These findings seem to affirm that forests used and managed by Indigenous and rural communities can support global objectives for carbon and biodiversity, while meeting the needs of local people.</p>
<p>Ostrom’s research identified five important <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3146375?origin=crossref">bundles of rights</a> that allow communities to sustainably manage a parcel of land in such commons. These are: access, withdrawal, management, exclusion, and alienation. </p>
<p>Access and withdrawal rights are the minimum required for communities to go into a forest and collect timber, flowers, leaves and grasses for their subsistence and to sell commercially. The most important of these rights, at least in terms of forest restoration, is management rights, including the right to decide where and what type of trees to plant in order to restore a forest.</p>
<p>But Ostrom found that these rights are worthless unless imbued with secure “<a href="https://www.fao.org/publications/card/en/c/c6ded0bb-c052-5802-9659-b93746c82019/">tenure</a>” – in other words, confidence that land users would not be arbitrarily deprived of their rights over particular parcels of land.</p>
<p>Attempts by governments to provide partial management rights to local communities in recent decades have <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26393067?seq=8">disappointed</a> when it comes to restoring forests. For example, India has attempted to revive degraded forests since 1991 through its joint forest management programme, which offers partial rights to communities that are invited to help prepare a management plan. But without legally binding rights or secure tenure, this approach has shown <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921344909002274">limited success</a>.</p>
<p>In contrast, India’s forest rights act 2006, the first of its kind globally, provided local communities that had traditionally used an area of forested land with <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934123001685?casa_token=zZCXQa7V2yoAAAAA:sRJJ2wisUYVvAx-FagvRHcnfmioWoaUOQgyGYm3t808u_67LNIpcBV6YUk7_I2ASTNVim8E2FQ">full management rights and secure tenure</a>. The result has been restored forests and communities benefiting from increased sales of bamboo and tendu (leaves for rolling tobacco), <a href="https://www.epw.in/journal/2020/18/special-articles/implementation-community-forest-rights.html">improving livelihoods</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two women making bidi cigarettes out of tendu leaves." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564287/original/file-20231207-29-iy7909.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564287/original/file-20231207-29-iy7909.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564287/original/file-20231207-29-iy7909.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564287/original/file-20231207-29-iy7909.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564287/original/file-20231207-29-iy7909.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564287/original/file-20231207-29-iy7909.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564287/original/file-20231207-29-iy7909.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Indian women making bidi, traditional handmade cigarettes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/burhanpur-madhya-pradesh-india-05-jan-1903477321">Parikh Mahendra N/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Empower forest communities</h2>
<p>To restore Earth’s forests and mitigate climate change, states should devolve management rights to the communities in these land parcels and grant them secure tenure.</p>
<p>But how should these commons be governed? Ostrom’s many years of research are, again, a useful guide. She <a href="https://www.onthecommons.org/magazine/elinor-ostroms-8-principles-managing-commmons/index.html">advocated</a> for clear boundaries defining the community’s rights, rules for forest use, the rights of all members of a community to participate in making those rules (including women and marginal communities), collective decision-making on managing resources, effective monitoring, graduated sanctions for rule violations, conflict resolution mechanisms, and a nested governance structure when multiple communities have rights over the same resources.</p>
<p>There are clear limitations on Indigenous and forest-dependent communities to access the finance that might aid them in their restoration work. Brazil’s proposed fund, and existing climate finance mechanism such as REDD+ and the green climate fund, must be made accessible to these forest communities. This would be easier if they had secure rights and tenure, with a clear set of management rules.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 20,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217634/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dhanapal Govindarajulu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When forest communities have secure rights and tenure, the results can be miraculous.Dhanapal Govindarajulu, Postgraduate Researcher, Global Development Institute, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2193992023-12-07T11:32:49Z2023-12-07T11:32:49ZHelping the Pacific financially is a great start – but Australia must act on the root cause of the climate crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564147/original/file-20231207-27-ums72m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=29%2C49%2C3216%2C2144&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fiji was flooded by a severe cyclone in 2016.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/indigenous-fijian-girl-walking-on-flooded-561184597">ChameleonsEye/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The federal government has announced an extra <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/joint-media-release-supporting-pacific-family-cop28-respond-climate-change">A$150 million for climate finance</a> – including $100 million for the Pacific to help protect its people, housing and infrastructure from the escalating impacts of global warming. </p>
<p>It comes as Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen lands in Dubai for international negotiations at the <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/">28th United Nations climate summit</a>. At the end of the hottest year on record, these talks focus on accelerating climate action in line with the Paris Agreement. </p>
<p>While new funding is undoubtedly important and can go a long way to supporting community-led resilience-building efforts in the region, Australia will be under growing pressure to do more.</p>
<p>A growing number of countries, including the European Union and Pacific island nations, want to see global agreement at COP28 for a managed phase-out of fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Many observers are sceptical that COP28 can deliver consensus on shifting away from coal, oil and gas, because host nation the United Arab Emirates is a major oil exporter. This is a problem Australia also faces – having volunteered to host UN climate talks in 2026, in partnership with Pacific island countries. Today, Australia exports almost <a href="https://productiongap.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/PGR2023_web_rev.pdf">three times as much fossil fuels</a> as the UAE. Dozens of new coal and gas projects are lining up for approval. </p>
<p>Today’s announcement must not be a substitute for addressing the root causes of the climate crisis. Australia must stop approving new coal, oil and gas projects. And we must back agreement at COP28 for the phase-out of fossil fuels.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/after-decades-putting-the-brakes-on-global-action-does-australia-deserve-to-host-un-climate-talks-with-pacific-nations-194055">After decades putting the brakes on global action, does Australia deserve to host UN climate talks with Pacific nations?</a>
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<h2>What’s in today’s announcement?</h2>
<p>Australia will kickstart the Pacific’s first resilience financing facility with $100 million, and rejoin the Green Climate Fund with a $50 million contribution. As the government says in today’s joint statement: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Climate change is the single greatest threat to the livelihoods, security and wellbeing of climate vulnerable countries and regions, including the peoples of the Pacific.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Sea-level rise, stronger cyclones, marine heatwaves and increasingly acidic oceans pose existential threats to many Pacific islands. Low-lying atoll nations such as Kiribati and Tuvalu are especially vulnerable. </p>
<p>Australia certainly has a responsibility to help Pacific communities adapt. Supporting the Pacific-led, owned and managed Pacific Resilience Facility is an important step. </p>
<p>The facility was proposed by island leaders as a regional fund that would help island communities build resilience to climate impacts, and would be driven by Pacific priorities. </p>
<p>It was established partly in response to concerns that other large multilateral funds are difficult for Pacific island countries to access, and are not geared to support community-scale projects. These locally driven solutions and community projects deserve our support. </p>
<p>The Australian government says it will support locally led, small-scale projects: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>This includes grants for climate adaptation, disaster preparedness, nature-based solutions and projects which respond to loss and damage.</p>
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<p>Note the words “loss and damage” – the sole mention of those words in today’s announcement. Bowen has so far been <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/interview-sabra-lane-abc-am-4">hesitant to make any commitment</a> to the new global Loss and Damage Fund, to be administered by the World Bank. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-chris-bowens-struggle-to-promote-consensus-on-climate-action-at-cop28-219008">Politics with Michelle Grattan: Chris Bowen's struggle to promote consensus on climate action at COP28</a>
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<h2>Rejoining the Green Climate Fund</h2>
<p>The world’s largest global climate fund, the Green Climate Fund, was set up in 2015 as part of the Paris Agreement. It has approved projects across 128 countries.</p>
<p>Australian diplomat Howard Bamsey was <a href="https://www.greenclimate.fund/news/gcf-board-selects-howard-bamsey-as-executive-director-of-the-secretari-1">previously Executive Director of the Green Climate Fund</a> and Australia was able to direct the multilateral fund to support initiatives in our region. </p>
<p>But the Morrison government withdrew Australia from the fund in 2018. We should never have left. It was a rash decision, <a href="https://archive.is/0GIN8">announced by the then Prime Minister Scott Morrison live on air</a> while talking to radio host Alan Jones.</p>
<p>Rejoining the Green Climate Fund makes good sense for Australian diplomacy and relations with countries in our region. By rejoining the fund, Australia can effectively advocate for funding to meet Pacific needs.</p>
<h2>Australia should contribute to the new Loss and Damage Fund</h2>
<p>Providing finance to help Pacific communities deal with growing climate impacts is a positive step, but Australia also needs to contribute to the newly established fund to address loss and damage that is now unavoidable.</p>
<p>The establishment of the global Loss and Damage Fund at the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-climate-summit-just-approved-a-loss-and-damage-fund-what%20-does-this-mean-218999">beginning of COP28 last week</a> was a major breakthrough, and a real win for Pacific island countries. </p>
<p>Vanuatu first proposed a global fund in the early 1990s. The idea was polluters would pay for the damage they were causing. </p>
<p>This is different to climate finance for adaptation. It is meant to deal with things you really can’t adapt to, such as loss of lives after a major cyclone, or damage to crucial infrastructure after coastal inundation. </p>
<p>Finalising such a fund means wealthy nations and major emitters must now allocate funds to address these forms of loss and damage in the Pacific. </p>
<p>With other nations – including the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, the UAE and Germany – already making announcements to contribute to this new Loss and Damage Fund, Australia must also do its part. </p>
<p>Australia should be supporting our Pacific neighbours by actively contributing to this global fund and recognising our responsibilities as a major fossil fuel producer.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-climate-summit-just-approved-a-loss-and-damage-fund-what-does-this-mean-218999">COP28 climate summit just approved a 'loss and damage' fund. What does this mean?</a>
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<h2>Committing to fossil fuel phase out key to winning Pacific support</h2>
<p>The only way to actually stop harming communities in the Pacific is to stop adding fuel to the fire. That means stopping the approval of new coal, oil and gas projects and committing to a managed phase-out of fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Australia has put up its hand to host COP31 with Pacific island countries in 2026.
To be a successful host of the UN climate talks, Australia will need to actively support the Pacific’s fight for survival. We can’t just keep throwing money at the problem. We need to be part of the solution.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219399/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wesley Morgan is a senior researcher with the Climate Council</span></em></p>As Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen lands in Dubai for COP28, Australia has announced an extra A$150 in climate finance with a focus on the Pacific region.Wesley Morgan, Research Fellow, Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2178692023-12-04T15:04:09Z2023-12-04T15:04:09ZGetting climate funds to conflict zones – a case for working with armed groups and local communities<p>Conflict-ridden and fragile countries are among the most vulnerable to climate change and least prepared to deal with it. They are largely excluded from climate adaptation programmes and funding. </p>
<p>This is partly because funding is channelled through national governments, which might not be able to work in areas affected by conflict or beyond their control.</p>
<p>Civilians and armed groups alike are increasingly concerned about climate change. The international community, however, is doing little to address its impact in these vulnerable areas. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://gain.nd.edu/">Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative</a> has identified 25 countries as most vulnerable to climate change and least prepared to adapt to its impact. Of these, 15 have been hit hard by conflict. This list includes Somalia, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo and Afghanistan.</p>
<p>By their nature, conflict-ridden areas have weak or no government structures. The current approach to climate adaptation does not include non-state actors and local communities, who might work more effectively in these areas. </p>
<p>With the COP28 climate meeting in Dubai, the issue of climate change adaptation in conflict areas has been in the <a href="https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news/2023/11/13/exclusive-cop28-declaration-climate-funding-and-conflict">news</a>. A draft declaration by the COP presidency calls for immediate action and urgent funding for these vulnerable communities. The text is not legally binding, but it goes further than any previous COP statements on climate impacts in conflict areas.</p>
<p>I have spent over a decade researching conflict and insurgency. Working with colleagues from the <a href="https://odi.org/en/">Overseas Development Institute</a> and the <a href="https://www.graduateinstitute.ch/">Geneva Graduate Instiute</a>, I’ve investigated the failure of multilateral institutions to include conflict areas in their climate adaptation programmes. </p>
<p>We <a href="https://www.armedgroupscentre.org/reports-and-articles/climate-adaptation-in-no-mans-land">reviewed</a> existing literature on this. We identified gaps in climate adaptation efforts and funding mechanisms that would work in conflict areas. We argue for working with local communities and civil society as well as engaging non-state armed groups. </p>
<h2>The conflict-climate gap</h2>
<p>Conflict-affected countries receive <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/content/fair-share-of-climate-finance">significantly less</a> climate adaptation funding. They get about one-third of the per capita climate financing compared to conflict-free countries. Adaptation programming and financing mechanisms are not designed for areas experiencing conflict or those beyond state control.</p>
<p>In some areas, non-state armed groups have stepped into the gap. In Myanmar, the <a href="https://rcsd.soc.cmu.ac.th/publications/conflict-complexity-climate-change/">Karen National Union operates</a> its own departments focusing on land, forestry and wildlife conservation. The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) has incorporated environmental protection clauses into its internal <a href="https://ceobs.org/environmental-protection-and-non-state-armed-groups-setting-a-place-at-the-table-for-the-elephant-in-the-room/">codes of conduct</a>. And in Somalia, Al Shabaab has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/aug/08/somalia-deforestation-charcoal-farmers-logging-al-shabaab">imposed fines</a> for cutting down trees and even banned plastic bags. </p>
<p>Elsewhere, such as in the Sahel, armed groups exploit the environmental drivers of conflict in <a href="https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2022-02/sipriinsight2203_ccr_west_africa_0.pdf">propaganda and recruitment</a>. </p>
<p>Armed groups take up the mantle of environmental protection for a complicated mixture of reasons. (They may also contribute to ecological destruction.) For most, it enhances their legitimacy with local populations, who are desperate for relief from the impact of climate change. </p>
<p>Where this is the case, it may present an opening for climate adaptation interventions. Armed groups control significant territories — often rich in natural resources. Their participation can be critical in taking wide-scale climate actions. We also <a href="https://www.armedgroups-internationallaw.org/2019/11/18/international-law-talk-by-non-state-armed-groups/">know</a> that armed groups seeking statehood or other forms of legitimacy are often willing to comply with international norms to gain positive recognition.</p>
<p>In short, there is untapped potential to save lives and mitigate the impact of climate change in areas under armed group control. </p>
<p>Our research suggests that this engagement can help build peace and reduce violence. Climate change is often <a href="https://climateandsecurity.org/2023/01/briefer-climate-change-as-a-threat-multiplier-history-uses-and-future-of-the-concept/#:%7E:text=%E2%80%9CThreat%20multiplier%E2%80%9D%20has%20become%20a,realm%20and%20climate%2Dsecurity%20literature">portrayed</a> as driving conflict or as a “threat multiplier” with impacts ranging from <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/climate-issues/human-security#:%7E:text=Climate%20change%20is%20often%20called,most%20politically%20and%20economically%20fragile.">resource scarcity</a> to <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/61542ee0a87a394f7bc17b3a/t/61b8e67b32b0eb4c0fbb89a5/1639507580316/working-Paper-9-climate-change-threat-multiplier.pdf#page=11">displacement of people</a>. But engagement with armed actors on the environment and climate change can also serve as a building block for peace. </p>
<p>This is especially true in countries like <a href="https://www.peaceagency.org/colombian-environmental-peacebuilding-process/">Colombia</a>, where environmental factors <a href="https://www.peaceagency.org/colombian-environmental-peacebuilding-process/">contributed</a> to the conflict. Environmental and resource issues are an often neglected aspect of preparing for peace talks. </p>
<p>Climate work in areas beyond state control is fraught with ethical, legal and practical dilemmas. For instance, certain <a href="https://odihpn.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/NP_79_crc_string_FINAL.pdf">laws</a> that prohibit material support to designated terrorist groups can obstruct or complicate aid efforts. </p>
<p>There is always a risk that armed groups may just <a href="https://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/16583/files/SSRN-id1569636..pdf">pay</a> lip service to these norms, or that engaging with them could inadvertently further empower or legitimise them. Additionally, unlike government counterparts, armed groups and communities in these areas may lack the technical capacity to understand the ecological complexities involved in climate adaptation.</p>
<h2>Addressing climate impacts beyond state control</h2>
<p>These risks must be navigated carefully. But the urgent need for adaptation outweighs the potential drawbacks. </p>
<p>Climate adaptation actors do not need to engage directly with armed actors. Customary authorities, humanitarians and local peace builders can be intermediaries, ensuring interventions are appropriate and accepted by all. </p>
<p>Climate adaptation in conflict areas requires a different approach. At a minimum, it requires going beyond national governments, and directly engaging with conflict-affected communities. It also, to some extent, means devolving decision-making to communities themselves. </p>
<p>An urgent priority should be increasing climate financing for conflict regions. COP28’s belated interest in conflict affected areas is welcome, but it doesn’t go nearly far enough. This recognition must be followed by concrete policy and funding shifts tailored to the challenges of working in conflict areas and areas beyond state control.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217869/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ashley Jackson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Funding climate adaptation in conflict areas may require engaging local communities and armed groups where national governments are absent.Ashley Jackson, Research Associate, Overseas Development Institute, King's College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2189992023-12-01T02:24:05Z2023-12-01T02:24:05ZCOP28 climate summit just approved a ‘loss and damage’ fund. What does this mean?<p>Day one of the COP28 climate summit saw the first big breakthrough: <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/news/2023/11/COP28-Presidency-unites-the-world-on-Loss-and-Damage">agreement on a “loss and damage” fund</a> to compensate poor states for the effects of climate change.</p>
<p>Met with a standing ovation in Dubai, the agreement means wealthy states and major polluters will put millions of dollars towards a fund that will in turn distribute funds to poor states harmed by climate change. The fund will be administered by the World Bank. Initial commitments amount to US$430 million.</p>
<p>It will come as a huge relief to the United Arab Emirates, the summit’s host. The country was under pressure even before talks began about its fossil fuel expansion plans and the fact the president of the climate talks is <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-inside-the-united-arab-emirates-the-oil-giant-hosting-2023-climate-change-summit-217859">chief executive of a national oil company</a>. This undoubtedly featured in the UAE’s decision to commit US$100 million to the fund.</p>
<p>Other countries to make <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/30/agreement-on-loss-and-damage-deal-expected-on-first-day-of-cop28-talks">initial commitments to the fund</a> include the United Kingdom ($75 million), United States ($24.5 million), Japan ($10 million) and Germany (also US$100 million). Pressure will now build on other wealthy countries, including Australia, to outline their own commitments to the fund.</p>
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<h2>What’s the history of the fund?</h2>
<p>The Loss and Damage Fund was <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/03/opinions/cop27-climate-loss-and-damage-vanuatu-sutter/index.html">first suggested by Vanuatu</a> in 1991.</p>
<p>At the heart of the push for this fund is a recognition that those countries likely to be most affected by climate change are the least responsible for the problem itself. The fund would ensure those who created the problem of climate change – developed states and major emitters – would compensate those experiencing its most devastating effects.</p>
<p>With global warming now locked in and effects already being felt, from natural disasters to rising sea levels, the fund also recognises the world has failed to prevent climate change from happening.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-one-big-breakthrough-but-ultimately-an-inadequate-response-to-the-climate-crisis-194056">commitment to establish such a fund</a> was one of the most important outcomes of last year’s climate talks in Egypt. Since then, a series of meetings had taken place to try to secure international agreement about how the fund would work, who would commit to it, and who would be eligible to receive funds.</p>
<p>These meetings have been characterised by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/03/un-climate-crisis-talks-resume-loss-damage-funding-poorest-countries">significant disagreement</a> over each of these points.</p>
<p>In that sense, the COP28 announcement is a welcome and significant breakthrough.</p>
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<h2>Questions remain</h2>
<p>There’s still a lot that needs clarifying about this fund. Some of the big outstanding questions include the fund’s size, its relationship to other funds, how it will be administered over the long term, and what its funding priorities will be.</p>
<p>In response to the announcement, leading <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/1st-day-climate-conference-sets-fund-countries-hit-105269216">African think-tank representative Mohamad Adhow noted</a> there were “no hard deadlines, no targets, and countries are not obligated to pay into it, despite the whole point being for rich, high-polluting nations to support vulnerable communities who have suffered from climate impacts”.</p>
<p>There is also concern about the World Bank’s role in overseeing the fund in the first instance. Developing countries expressed opposition to this idea in the lead up to COP28, questioning the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/29/why-loss-and-damage-funds-are-key-to-climate-justice-for-developing-countries-at-cop28">World Bank’s environmental credentials and the transparency</a> of its operations.</p>
<p>While initial funding may seem generous, most analysts would also agree this fund is a long way from covering the full range of effects. Some estimates suggest the costs of climate-related harms <a href="https://assets-global.website-files.com/605869242b205050a0579e87/655b50e163c953059360564d_L%26DC_L%26D_Package_for_COP28_20112023_1227.pdf">are already at $400 billion</a> annually for developing states: roughly 1,000 times the amount initially pledged.</p>
<p>Finally, we should not assume pledges will actually translate to countries putting their hands in their pocket. The Green Climate Fund announced in 2009 – designed to help developing states with their transition away from fossil fuels and to help with adaptation initiatives – included a commitment for developed states to provide <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-climate-finance-flows-are-falling-short-of-100bn-pledge/">$100 billion per year by 2020</a>. They fell well short of this goal.</p>
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<h2>The legacy</h2>
<p>Agreement on this fund is a good thing in recognising the inequality at the heart of the causes and effects of climate change, and may ultimately be one of the key outcomes of these talks.</p>
<p>Early agreement also means it cannot be used as a bargaining chip over other crucial parts of these negotiations. Now the talks can now focus on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-disasters-and-heat-intensify-can-the-world-meet-the-urgency-of-the-moment-at-the-cop28-climate-talks-217063">assessment of progress</a> towards meeting commitments to the Paris Agreement, which aims to hold warming to 1.5°C to limit further dangerous levels of climate change.</p>
<p>Whether the UAE organisers and the rest of the world take up this challenge effectively will determine the effectiveness of these talks, and quite possibly the fate of the planet.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt McDonald has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the Economic and Social Research Council in the UK.</span></em></p>Through the Loss and Damage Fund, developed states and major emitters will compensate developing countries experiencing the most devastating effects of climate change. The fund is now operational.Matt McDonald, Associate Professor of International Relations, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2049652023-11-30T13:35:21Z2023-11-30T13:35:21ZBuilding African cities that cope with climate shocks – experts outline what it will take<p>The international climate change negotiations began almost three decades ago when many were still hesitant to accept that human activities were changing the planet. Now the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_SummaryVolume.pdf">scientific evidence</a> is unequivocal. Climate change is a major threat to our wellbeing, the health of the planet and the ecosystems we rely on. </p>
<p>But there’s a very large gap between what the science calls for and the actions that have been taken to date. The window of opportunity to secure a liveable, equitable and sustainable future for all is closing rapidly.</p>
<p>For those working on African city sustainability, the mountain to climb is particularly high. <a href="https://www.afdb.org/en/news-and-events/particularly-exposed-climate-shocks-african-cities-are-turning-adaptation-and-resilience-56462">Seventy percent</a> of African cities have <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter09.pdf">high vulnerability</a> to climate shocks.</p>
<p>Africa is the <a href="https://issafrica.org/iss-today/climate-change-will-strain-africas-already-congested-cities">fastest urbanising</a> region in the world. This fast growing and highly vulnerable urban population is experiencing climate change impacts first-hand. We are all too aware of the devastation caused by climate-related disasters like <a href="https://www.worldvision.org/disaster-relief-news-stories/2019-cyclone-idai-facts#:%7E:text=Cyclone%20Idai%20made%20landfall%20near,destruction%20of%20property%20and%20crops.">Cyclone Idai</a>, which hit southern Africa in 2019. Just this one cyclone led to over 1,000 fatalities and affected over 3 million people. </p>
<p>Recently the catastrophic flooding in Libya claimed close to <a href="https://assets.ctfassets.net/cxgxgstp8r5d/3Ol753QygKfVTuCC28qgij/b97aacad87ca66289e06e2176b7af567/-Climate_Central_report-_The_hottest_12-month_stretch_in_recorded_history__Nov_2022_to_Oct_2023_.pdf#page=11">4,000 lives</a>. </p>
<p>Unless <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights/africas-green-manufacturing-crossroads-choices-for-a-low-carbon-industrial-future">drastic changes</a> occur in how energy is produced and consumed in African cities, carbon emissions will rise as these cities develop and build infrastructure. This is already happening. The <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/working-group/wg3/">2022 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group III report</a> revealed that Africa contributed <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/chapter/chapter-2/">11%</a> of greenhouse gas emissions growth since 1990. </p>
<p>It is therefore not surprising that the eyes of the world are on Africa’s urban areas. The question is whether they will develop in emissions-heavy ways that undermine natural systems and increase inequities, or in low-carbon ways that are nature-positive and reduce inequality. </p>
<p>According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, global greenhouse gas emissions must begin dropping within the next three years in pathways that limit warming to <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/reports#:%7E:text=IPCC%20%7C%20Climate%20Change%202022%3A%20Mitigation%20of%20Climate%20Change&text=In%20the%20scenarios%20assessed%2C%20limiting,reduced%20by%20about%20a%20third.">1.5°C</a>. These pathways require immediate action. Rapid and deep emissions reductions must happen throughout the next three decades. </p>
<p>Without limiting carbon emissions, securing climate finance and enabling a free flow of knowledge and technology into Africa, the opportunity to build climate-resilient African cities may be lost. And fossil fuels will continue to power development for years to come. </p>
<p>There are some signs of progress. The <a href="https://www.treasury.gov.za/comm_media/press/2022/2022110901%20Media%20statement-France%20and%20Germany%20extend%20%E2%82%AC600%20million%20in%20financing%20to%20support%20SAs%20transition%20from%20coal.pdf">US$8.5 billion</a> pledged by the US, the UK, Germany, France and the EU to help South Africa transition away from coal is an example. But this is well below what is required to effect such a change.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/people/debra-roberts/">work</a> at the <a href="https://africa.iclei.org/our-team/">interface</a> of <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=yuMSayAAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">science</a> and practice within African cities over more than three decades has revealed that:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>African cities are central to the global fight against climate change </p></li>
<li><p>more resources are needed for African cities to mitigate and adapt to climate change and its attendant shocks</p></li>
<li><p>Africans need to re-envision what climate resilient development means within unique African city contexts, and apply resources accordingly.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Here we outline calls to action which, if heeded, will bring the continent closer to a climate resilient future. </p>
<p><strong>Limit carbon emissions while adapting to climate change</strong></p>
<p>It is our view that Africa should be acting ambitiously, aiming to reduce carbon emissions to limit global warming to <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/working-group/wg3/">1.5°C</a>, while adapting for a potential global warming level of 3°C. </p>
<p>Many African cities are already taking great strides. <a href="https://comssa.org/en/">Through the Covenant of Mayors in Sub-Saharan Africa initiative</a> over 360 sub-national governments have pledged their commitment to these crucial issues. Notably, 107 of these cities have formulated specific targets and plans to tackle climate change. What is needed now is finance to implement these plans at scale.</p>
<p>Not enough finance is flowing to African urban areas. In 2020 only <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Climate-Finance-Needs-of-African-Countries-1.pdf">US$30 billion flowed to Africa, which is about 12% of what is needed</a>. And in 2017/2018 sub-Saharan Africa received only about <a href="https://citiesclimatefinance.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/2021-State-of-Cities-Finance-Executive-Summary.pdf">US$3 billion or 0.8% of global urban climate finance</a>.</p>
<p>In June 2023 heads of state met in Paris to discuss a new global financing pact, and many African countries expressed frustration that international climate finance promises had not been fulfilled. Solutions were also offered, such as the <a href="https://afdb.africa-newsroom.com/press/summit-for-a-new-global-financing-pact-international-community-welcomes-african-development-bank-initiative-on-international-monetary-fund-imf-special-drawing-rights?lang=en">African Development Bank’s initiative on channelling Special Drawing Rights to multilateral development banks</a> to help rebuild livelihoods affected by climate change and other global challenges. But big questions still remain about how cities themselves will be able to access – directly – the climate finance needed to enable climate resilient development.</p>
<p>The ICLEI Africa network’s <a href="https://africa.iclei.org/workstreams/sustainable-finance-centre/">Sustainable Finance Centre</a> is tackling this issue head on, by providing the knowledge brokering services needed to bridge divides and fill gaps that prohibit city-scale projects from progressing from concept to financial close and implementation.</p>
<p><strong>Build climate resilient urban areas in context appropriate ways</strong> </p>
<p>Africa’s urban areas need to respond to the urgent need for development in a way that is equitable and minimises emissions, but also builds climate resilience to unavoidable losses and damages and minimises mal-adaptation.</p>
<p>This resilience building will look different in different locales, and there is a growing database of good practices that are inspiring change. For example, in Freetown and Kampala, <a href="https://africa.iclei.org/project/enact/">ICLEI Africa</a> is working to deploy clean cooking solutions to about 3,000 households and businesses in target informal settlements. This is to reduce these communities’ exposure to household air pollution, decrease deforestation for fuelwood, and reduce time burdens that are predominantly shouldered by women who collect fuelwood or charcoal for <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cqMEClNxClY">cooking</a>. </p>
<p><strong>Re-envision what a resilient African city is</strong></p>
<p>Given the unique context of the continent and the broad ranging challenges and opportunities it offers, African policymakers need to pause and re-imagine what resilient, low carbon African cities would look like. </p>
<p>African cities must meet the needs of a culturally diverse population.
Policymakers need to direct resources, solutions and finance in ways that allow the continent to thrive. </p>
<p>Climate change requires a whole-of-society response. Without a thriving urban Africa, global climate change ambitions will never be met. This is the moment to rethink the African city.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204965/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Meggan Spires is ICLEI Africa's Director for Climate Change, Energy and Resilience. The time Meggan utilised to write this article was co-funded by ICLEI Africa and the Covenant of Mayors in Sub-Saharan Africa initiative (which is co-funded by the European Union and the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development and co-implemented by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit, an agency working on behalf of the German government).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Debra Roberts does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Africans need to re-envision what climate resilient development means within unique African city contexts.Debra Roberts, Head: Sustainable and Resilient City Initiatives Unit, EThekwini Municipality; Honorary Professor, University of KwaZulu Natal and Co-Chair of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, University of KwaZulu-NatalMeggan Spires, Director: Climate Change, Energy & Resilience, ICLEI Africa, ICLEI - Local Governments for SustainabilityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2184442023-11-29T16:28:12Z2023-11-29T16:28:12ZChina is already paying substantial climate finance, while US is global laggard – new analysis<p>Finance is poisoning international cooperation on the climate crisis. </p>
<p>There is no longer any credible debate about the need to act on climate change, but tensions are flaring around the question of who should make the immense investments necessary to phase out fossil fuels and adapt to a more hostile climate.</p>
<p>The rift between richer and poorer countries has consequently revived and the negotiations have once more descended into acrimony. How can the finance fight be resolved?</p>
<p>Back in 2009, developed countries at the Copenhagen summit committed to provide developing countries with US$100 billion (£78.9 billion) of climate finance a year from 2020.</p>
<p>US$100 billion a year is just a fraction of the <a href="https://www.g20.org/content/dam/gtwenty/gtwenty_new/document/Strengthening-MDBs-The-Triple-Agenda_G20-IEG-Report-Volume.pdf">US$1.8 trillion</a> that low- and middle-income countries need each year to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. </p>
<p>But it is symbolic: it represents redress for the <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2023/09/settling-the-climate-debt-clements-gupta-liu">outsized share of the global carbon budget</a> that developed countries have gobbled up, leaving the rest of the world both battered by climate disasters and constrained in terms of the carbon that they can emit as they pursue a better quality of life.</p>
<p>Despite the political importance of the US$100 billion pledge, developed countries did not deliver it in 2020 or 2021. They may <a href="https://www.oecd.org/environment/growth-accelerated-in-the-climate-finance-provided-and-mobilised-in-2021-but-developed-countries-remain-short.htm">meet the goal in 2022</a>, but the self-reported data has not yet been verified.</p>
<p>The broken promise of climate finance has stoked <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/africa/roots-global-souths-new-resentment">resentment in developing countries</a>, compounded by vaccine hoarding and debt hangovers.</p>
<p>Many of these countries insist that the US$100 billion a year must be met before other aspects of the climate negotiations can continue in good faith.</p>
<p>Yet many developed countries look askance at these demands from some of the increasingly wealthy and polluting economies – like <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2023/05/23/dr-sultan-al-jaber-calls-for-boost-to-public-and-private-climate-finance-for-africa/">the Gulf states</a> or <a href="https://english.news.cn/20221109/730597e4642b46648d7a93fa6a4d6b62/c.html">China</a> – that sit within the developing country bloc. This bloc has no obligation to provide climate finance under the international regime.</p>
<p>Posturing by both sides overlooks the huge amount of climate finance that many developing countries already contribute.</p>
<h2>Unsung heroes?</h2>
<p>Most countries pay into multilateral development banks, which are set up by governments to help poorer countries access cheaper finance and advisory services.</p>
<p>While fighting climate change is rarely a country’s primary motivation for investing in these banks, their contributions nonetheless help developing countries mitigate and adapt to climate change. For example, the banks might provide a low-cost loan to countries looking to enhance their wastewater systems to cope with more rainfall, or to build a public transport network that avoids emissions from private cars. </p>
<p>Developing countries do not seek or receive credit for this climate finance, as they are not obliged to report their contributions to the UN climate convention. In a first of its kind <a href="https://odi.org/en/publications/the-new-collective-quantified-goal-and-its-sources-of-funding-operationalising-a-collective-effort/">analysis</a>, the global affairs thinktank ODI has revealed that developing countries already provide large amounts of climate finance through these banks. </p>
<p>China is the 11th largest provider of all countries, contributing US$1.2 billion a year. India (17th), Brazil (19th) and Russia (20th) are also notable donors.</p>
<p>Even these figures understate developing country contributions, as they do not include climate finance channelled bilaterally between countries, rather than through multilateral development banks or UN agencies, and are only available for a handful of developing countries, including China.</p>
<p>Drawing on these databases, we calculated that China provides an estimated US$1.4 billion of public finance bilaterally. If we combine this figure with the US$1.2 billion of climate finance that it channels through multilateral development banks, China is the seventh largest provider of climate finance between Italy (sixth) and Canada (eigth).</p>
<p>These figures make a mockery of <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1595">US</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/26/eu-climate-chief-china-fund-rescue-poorer-nations-cop28">EU</a> demands that China begin contributing climate finance – particularly given the track record of the US to date.</p>
<h2>Unfair share</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://odi.org/en/publications/a-fair-share-of-climate-finance-the-adaptation-edition/">annual “fair share” report</a> attributes responsibility for the US$100 billion target among developed countries based on their historical emissions (which continue to fuel global warming), income and population size.</p>
<p>Based on these metrics, we found that the US is overwhelmingly responsible for the climate finance shortfall. The world’s largest economy should be providing US$43.5 billion of climate finance a year. In 2021, it gave just US$9.3 billion – a meagre 21% of its fair share.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1701960098292125799"}"></div></p>
<p>For context, the US accounts for around <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-which-countries-are-historically-responsible-for-climate-change/">a fifth of historical emissions</a> but just 4% of the global population. Its economy is four times larger than Japan’s, five times larger than Germany’s and eight times larger than that of France, yet it provides less climate finance than any of them.</p>
<p>Although China has 17% of the global population, it is responsible for <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-which-countries-are-historically-responsible-for-climate-change/">just 11% of cumulative emissions</a>. China is also much poorer per person than the US – or indeed, any of the developed countries expected to provide climate finance. Nonetheless, China gives US$2.6 billion of climate finance a year.</p>
<h2>If not China, who?</h2>
<p>Countries are assembling in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for the next round of climate negotiations. The new climate finance goal, which will replace the current target of US$100 billion a year, and the new loss and damage fund, will both be under the spotlight.</p>
<p><a href="https://odi.org/en/publications/the-new-collective-quantified-goal-and-its-sources-of-funding-operationalising-a-collective-effort/">We propose two criteria</a> to determine when countries should be obliged to provide climate finance: that they are at least as rich per person as the average developed country at the start of the 1990s, when international climate negotiations began, and that they have produced as many historical emissions per person.</p>
<p>Six countries meet our criteria: Brunei Darussalam, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE. The Czech Republic, Estonia and Qatar already voluntarily provide additional climate finance on top of their contributions to multilateral development banks. Brunei Darussalam, Kuwait and the UAE – which is presiding over this round of climate negotiations – do not.</p>
<h2>Closing the climate finance gap</h2>
<p>So, how can the deadlock be broken?</p>
<p>The fastest way to restore trust in the international climate regime would be for the US to step up with its fair share of climate finance. Without it, the Europeans are on track to <a href="https://odi.org/en/publications/a-fair-share-of-climate-finance-the-adaptation-edition/">close the gap</a> by meeting and exceeding their fair share of the US$100 billion.</p>
<p>Only once the developed countries have fulfilled their longstanding promise does a conversation about new climate finance contributors become politically possible.</p>
<p>The world has just endured the <a href="https://www.sciencenews.org/article/last-12-months-hottest-record-climate">hottest 12 months</a> on record. Let us hope that these extreme temperatures light a fire under diplomats and negotiators, igniting a joint commitment to finding the finance to avert climate catastrophe.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The ODI research presented in this article was funded by the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance and the Federal Foreign Office of Germany.</span></em></p>Climate finance can help developing countries adapt to climate change and phase out their emissions.Sarah Colenbrander, Guest Lecturer, Climate Change Economics, University of Oxford & Director, Climate and Sustainability Programme, Overseas Development InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2186232023-11-29T13:53:18Z2023-11-29T13:53:18ZClimate change: 3 key goals Nigeria must focus on at COP28<p>Global environmental stakeholders will converge in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates, from 30 November to 12 December 2023 for the UN Climate conference known as COP28. The conference aims to continue negotiations to address the global climate crisis. Nigeria’s main agenda in the conference is climate finance needed for climate change mitigation and adaptation.</p>
<p>Past conferences have resulted in some landmark agreements. However, the negotiation process to institute international climate finance has been thorny for developing countries. Nigeria’s diplomatic and negotiating strategies will have to be top-notch at COP28. </p>
<p>Nigeria has experienced a harsh climate change reality. The <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/publication/climate-change-nigeria-impacts-and-responses">effects</a> of climate change include flooding, desertification, coastal erosion, drought, deforestation, land degradation and pollution. These are also associated with <a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/abs/10.10520/EJC-12b792bb32">human security issues</a> such as food insecurity, resource conflicts and political instability. </p>
<p>Nigeria and other developing countries are disproportionately affected by climate change. This is despite their historically <a href="https://www.afdb.org/en/cop25/climate-change-africa">low contributions</a> to global warming compared to the developed countries. It is noteworthy that African countries, including Nigeria, will continue to link their development agenda to the international <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-77481-3_28">climate regime</a>.</p>
<p>For this reason, Nigeria has committed to global climate mandates through policies such as the <a href="https://climatechange.gov.ng/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/NDC_File-Amended-_11222.pdf">Nationally Determined Contribution</a>, the <a href="https://climatechange.gov.ng/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/NCCP_NIGERIA_REVISED_2-JUNE-2021.pdf">National Climate Change Policy for Nigeria</a>, the <a href="https://natccc.gov.ng/">National Climate Change Council</a> and the <a href="https://energytransition.gov.ng/">Energy Transition Plan</a>. Nigeria’s active participation in COP28 is critical to its development and citizens’ well-being.</p>
<p>I am a political scientist with <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=k_Lsu_8AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">research</a> in environmental and energy politics. I argue that Nigeria should focus on three climate finance goals at COP28. These are:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the loss and damage finance mechanism</p></li>
<li><p>Nigerian Energy Transition Plan finance</p></li>
<li><p>adaptation finance.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Securing these funds will immediately enhance Nigeria’s ability to respond to climate change. The funds are critical for meeting the country’s immediate, medium, and long-term climate goals. If Nigeria secures the finance it needs, it will be a landmark achievement in the country’s environmental diplomacy. </p>
<p>Nigeria has found it more difficult than many African countries to obtain international climate finance. Its lack of readiness and <a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/abs/10.31920/2050-4284/2019/s1n1a1">corruption</a> reputation have been blamed for this. </p>
<h2>1. Loss and damage fund</h2>
<p>The successful agreement on the <a href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/climate/cop27_fail_success_of_loss_and_damage/">Loss and Damage Fund</a> was the lone positive outcome of COP27. The fund was established to <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/what-you-need-know-about-cop27-loss-and-damage-fund">provide</a> assistance to the countries most vulnerable to and most affected by climate change. This agreement signifies that developing countries are becoming assertive and influential in the climate negotiation process. </p>
<p>Nigeria and other developing countries should not stop at the agreement. COP28 provides a platform for further clarification of funding mechanisms. Access to the fund and implementation of adaptation projects will advance for Nigeria and others once there is clarity. </p>
<p>The Loss and Damage Fund will help Nigeria to address some of its climate-induced human security crises. In recent years, flooding and resource conflicts have <a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/abs/10.10520/EJC-12b792bb32">exacerbated</a> loss and damage in Nigeria. The country cannot afford any hesitancy or stalemate on the implementation of the Loss and Damage Fund at COP28. </p>
<h2>2. Energy Transition Plan</h2>
<p>Nigeria announced its commitment to <a href="https://statehouse.gov.ng/news/at-cop26-president-buhari-pledges-net-zero-emissions-by-2060-says-nigeria-will-maintain-gas-based-energy-transition/#:%7E:text=The%20Statehouse%2C%20Abuja-,At%20COP26%2C%20President%20Buhari%20Pledges%20Net%20Zero%20Emissions%20by%202060,Maintain%20Gas%2DBased%20Energy%20Transition&text=President%20Muhammadu%20Buhari%20Tuesday%20in,to%20net%20zero%20by%202060">net-zero emissions</a> by 2060 at COP26. To achieve this, the country needs to fund its <a href="https://energytransition.gov.ng/">Energy Transition Plan</a> with US$1.9 trillion. This translates to an annual <a href="https://energytransition.gov.ng/">cost</a> of US$10 billion. </p>
<p>Meeting its Nationally Determined Contribution commitment will depend on its ability to secure international climate finance. Both initial and updated Nationally Determined Contributions are largely <a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/abs/10.31920/2516-3132/2020/v1n1a3">conditional</a> on this source of funding. Therefore, Nigeria’s COP28 negotiators and delegation must be adept at securing finance to carry out the country’s Energy Transition Plan. </p>
<h2>3. Adaptation finance</h2>
<p>Nigeria’s weak performance in climate change adaptation can be <a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/abs/10.31920/2050-4284/2019/s1n1a1">traced</a> to lack of financing. Hesitancy to invest in <a href="https://repository.nwu.ac.za/handle/10394/40189">reducing</a> citizens’ vulnerability to climate change leads to <a href="https://repository.nwu.ac.za/handle/10394/40189">socioeconomic crisis</a>. </p>
<p>Nigeria should not expect to easily get the funds it needs for adaptation at COP28. Only US$230 million was <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/disappointed-surprised-why-cop27-failed-african-cop-/">pledged</a> for adaptation at the last conference. Raising the required funds will require deft diplomatic moves.</p>
<h2>Why this matters</h2>
<p>COP28 is the time for the world and Nigeria to get their climate finance priorities right. </p>
<p>Nigeria will become more vulnerable to climate impacts if it fails to do this at COP28. A prolonged lack of adaptation finance would increase the number of Nigerians who are not resilient to climate change and its impact. Consequently, it would affect the country’s economy as climate change has an impact on livelihoods and health, damages infrastructure, and threatens food security. Similarly, failure to secure financing for the Energy Transition Plan could hamper Nigerian development projections. This is because the Federal Government treats this as a development plan. </p>
<p>COP28 represents a critical socioeconomic juncture for Nigeria, and the country has to secure international climate finance.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218623/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bamidele Olajide does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>COP28 gives Nigeria another chance to fight for financing it needs to adapt to climate change.Bamidele Olajide, Lecturer (Political Science), University of LagosLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2171982023-11-10T11:14:18Z2023-11-10T11:14:18ZCOP28: a year on from climate change funding breakthrough, poor countries eye disappointment at Dubai summit<p>At the COP27 summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, an agreement to establish a loss and damage fund was hailed as <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-one-big-breakthrough-but-ultimately-an-inadequate-response-to-the-climate-crisis-194056">a major breakthrough</a> on one of the trickiest topics in the UN climate change negotiations. In an otherwise <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-loss-and-damage-fund-a-historic-decision-amid-discouraging-results-195186">frustrating conference</a>, this decision in November 2022 acknowledged the help that poorer and low-emitting countries in particular need to deal with the consequences of climate change – and, tentatively, who ought to pay. </p>
<p>This following year has seen more extreme weather records broken. Torrential rains created flooding which swept away <a href="https://theconversation.com/libya-floods-the-drowning-of-derna-was-a-man-made-disaster-decades-in-the-making-213797">an entire city in Libya</a>, while wildfires razed swathes of Canada, Greece and the Hawaiian island of Maui. </p>
<p>As these events become routine worldwide, the case grows for an effective fund that can be set up quickly and help those most vulnerable to climate change. But after a year of talks, the fund has, so far, failed to materialise in the way that developing countries had hoped.</p>
<p>I’m writing a book on UN governance of loss and damage, and have been following the negotiations since 2013. Here’s what happened after the negotiators went home and what to watch out for when they return, this time at COP28 in Dubai.</p>
<h2>Big questions</h2>
<p>Many questions were raised and left unresolved in Sharm El-Sheikh. Among them: who will pay into this new fund? Where will it sit? Who will have power over it? And who will have access to the funding (and who won’t)?</p>
<p>A transitional committee with 14 developing country members and 10 developed country members was appointed by the UN to debate these questions after COP27. The committee has met regularly over the last year, but at its fourth meeting at the end of October – scheduled as the last session – important questions surrounding the fund, such as who should host and administer it, remained. Discussions broke down without an agreement.</p>
<p>In early November, less than a month before COP28, a hastily arranged fifth meeting presented committee members with a text cobbled together by the two co-chairs from South Africa and Finland as a take-it-or-leave-it agreement. Developing countries agreed to having the fund hosted by the World Bank for an interim period, despite reservations.</p>
<p>Developed countries also objected to the final text. The US wanted to add the adjective “voluntary” to any mention of contributions to the fund. Others argued that the pool of contributors to the fund should be widened to include some developing countries, such as Saudi Arabia, and also private sources of finance. These objections were noted but the text was adopted without them.</p>
<p>These recommendations must now be signed off at COP28, which begins on November 30. With almost 200 countries having to reach agreement on these arrangements and dissatisfaction widespread, the process isn’t likely to be straightforward.</p>
<h2>The world’s bank?</h2>
<p>Developing countries have been sceptical of the World Bank as a potential host of the fund for several reasons. </p>
<p>Many delegates worry about the bank’s reputation, including the dominance of developed country donors, its emphasis on providing loans rather than grants, and the lack of climate-savviness in the bank’s operations. These concerns are likely to reemerge in Dubai.</p>
<p>The US is the biggest shareholder in the World Bank and traditionally, the bank’s president has been a US citizen nominated by Washington. Small-island developing states (among the most vulnerable to climate change due to sea-level rise) have argued for moving the fund away from a donor-recipient model, with all their usual power imbalances, towards a partnership founded on a shared commitment to protecting the planet.</p>
<p>This will require partial or total reform of the World Bank – and <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/10/26/world-bank-eyes-overhaul-amid-climate-crisis-pub-90855">some argue</a> this is already happening under its new president. But hosting the fund within the bank would still give donor countries disproportionate influence, despite recommendations by the transitional committee that the fund’s governing board be composed of a majority of developing country members.</p>
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<img alt="A man walks past a building with 'World Bank Group' in tall letters on the exterior." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558613/original/file-20231109-25-823vex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558613/original/file-20231109-25-823vex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558613/original/file-20231109-25-823vex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558613/original/file-20231109-25-823vex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558613/original/file-20231109-25-823vex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558613/original/file-20231109-25-823vex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558613/original/file-20231109-25-823vex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The World Bank is headquartered in Washington D.C.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/washington-dc-usa-december-11-2019-1606840090">The Bold Bureau/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>High overhead costs are another concern. One board member of another fund hosted by the World Bank has suggested that the administrative fees the bank charges are rising and absorbing a larger share of aid. This could mean that, for every US$100 billion offered to countries and communities reeling from disaster, the World Bank will <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/11/03/avoid-our-mistake-dont-let-world-bank-host-loss-and-damage-fund/">keep $US1.5 billion</a>. This will be hard for an institution still <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/12/world-bank-spent-billions-of-dollars-backing-fossil-fuels-in-2022-study-finds">funding</a> the climate-wrecking oil and gas industry to justify. </p>
<p>The types of finance made available by the fund will need to be at odds with the bank’s traditional mode of loan financing, by offering grants and other forms of highly concessional lending. Developing countries have consistently argued that loss and damage funding should not increase a developing country’s debt burden.</p>
<p>The agreed text says the loss and damage fund will “invite financial contributions”, with developed countries expected to “take the lead”. Developing countries want developed nations (as the largest historical emitters) to provide funding, but rich nations have pushed back against any notion that they have an obligation to pay. </p>
<p>Rather, while making all the right noises on climate finance, they may gain short-term kudos by simply <a href="https://www.lossanddamagecollaboration.org/pages/festival-of-pledges-for-loss-damage-are-they-new-and-additional-and-do-they-meet-the-needs-on-the-ground#:%7E:text=Crucially%2C%20this%20is%20not%20new%20money%2C%20but%20an%20allocation%20of,to%20adaptation%20and%20mitigation%20needs.">rebranding existing forms of climate finance</a> or development aid, rather than offering any new money.</p>
<h2>The compensation taboo</h2>
<p>One thing you’re unlikely to hear at COP28 is “compensation”. While newspaper editors love headlines about reparations, liability and compensation when reporting on loss and damage, and <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/climate-litigation-more-doubles-five-years-now-key-tool-delivering">a rise in climate litigation</a> is making governments and polluting companies nervous, this language is still totally absent in discussion of the issue in the negotiations. </p>
<p>In fact, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378020307160">research has shown</a> that mentions of compensation in state submissions to the UN declined dramatically after the establishment of the mechanism on loss and damage in 2013. The fine print of the 2015 Paris Agreement noted that loss and damage was “<a href="https://unfccc.int/files/meetings/paris_nov_2015/application/pdf/cop_auv_template_4b_new__1.pdf">not a basis for liability or compensation</a>”.</p>
<p>I have noticed a taboo emerging around the term within the COP process. Instead, countries are increasingly opting for language such as “solidarity” as the basis for finance. These word choices show where power lies.</p>
<p>All of this is to sound a note of caution going into COP28. Major agreements on loss and damage have historically not lived up to their promises due to bureaucratic forum-shifting (moving topics to venues outside of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change), delays, and under-resourcing. <a href="https://www.unep.org/about-un-environment-programme/funding-and-partnerships/adaptation-fund">The adaptation fund</a> was established in 2001 but only approved its first funding in 2010. </p>
<p>How is the urgent need for support among vulnerable communities and countries going to be met when the pace of progress within the climate change negotiations is glacial at best, and tends to be <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/14693062.2022.2112935">particularly slow and unambitious</a> on loss and damage finance?</p>
<p>At COP28, making the loss and damage fund real is a litmus test for the legitimacy of the entire climate change negotiation regime.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lisa Vanhala receives funding from the European Research Council. She also consults for and advises a number of philanthropic organisations (including the Baring Foundation), NGOs (including the Public Law Project) and other organisations (3IE). </span></em></p>Rich polluters have evaded any notion of compensating poor countries at the UN talks.Lisa Vanhala, Professor of Political Science, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2080982023-07-18T12:30:50Z2023-07-18T12:30:50ZUsing green banks to solve America’s affordable housing crisis – and climate change at the same time<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537145/original/file-20230712-27-meeok5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=10%2C40%2C3360%2C2198&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Retrofitting apartment buildings for energy efficiency and solar power can boost affordable housing and climate protection.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/MassachusettsHomelessness/dc1bf7dbd28142cd8f57bb483203dbce/photo">AP Photo/Steven Senne</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Green banks are starting to draw attention in the U.S., particularly since the federal government <a href="https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/biden-harris-administration-launches-historic-20-billion-grant-competitions-create">announced its first grant competitions</a> under a national green bank program to bring clean technology and more affordable energy to low-income communities.</p>
<p>But installing more solar and wind electricity generation isn’t the only way <a href="https://www.oecd.org/environment/green-investment-banks.htm">green banks</a> can help. </p>
<p>Massachusetts is launching an innovative new green bank that could become a model as states try to manage two crises at once: lack of affordable housing and climate change.</p>
<p>While most green banks focus on clean energy, the <a href="https://malegislature.gov/Bills/191/H2894">Massachusetts Community Climate Bank</a> is specifically designed to boost the state’s stock of sustainable, affordable housing. It comes at an opportune time: States can now tap into billions of dollars in new federal funding for green banks under the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/cleanenergy/inflation-reduction-act-guidebook/">Inflation Reduction Act</a>.</p>
<p>So what exactly is a green bank, and how might it work for sustainable housing?</p>
<h2>What is a green bank?</h2>
<p>Despite the name, green banks aren’t traditional banks. They function more like investment funds with a mission to promote sustainability.</p>
<p>Green banks are public, quasi-public or nonprofit entities that use public funds to encourage private investment in low-carbon, climate-resilient infrastructure. </p>
<p>By using innovative <a href="https://coalitionforgreencapital.com/what-is-a-green-bank/green-bank-techniques/">financing strategies</a>, green banks can lower the risks for private investors to support projects, which reduces the amount of public money needed to reach government goals like expanding renewable energy or, in this case, affordable housing.</p>
<h2>Green banks across the US</h2>
<p>The U.S. had <a href="https://mcusercontent.com/3e3337737c870aa879b2ef144/files/58657110-26b4-3ee5-a3e4-45fda1bb6594/CGC_Consortium_AnnualReport.01.pdf">about two dozen green banks</a> operating in early 2023 in at least 18 states and the District of Columbia – most of them focused on accelerating the transition from fossil fuel use to clean energy. And more were being developed.</p>
<p>In 2022, those banks used US$1.51 billion of public money to <a href="https://mcusercontent.com/3e3337737c870aa879b2ef144/files/58657110-26b4-3ee5-a3e4-45fda1bb6594/CGC_Consortium_AnnualReport.01.pdf">mobilize $3.12 billion in private investment</a>. Since 2011, they have brought in a total of $14.8 billion.</p>
<p><iframe id="8dLGf" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/8dLGf/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Each bank is slightly different. <a href="https://www.ctgreenbank.com/">Connecticut’s</a> was the first state-run green bank in the U.S. It started with a renewable energy focus but expanded to include sustainable infrastructure, climate resilience, water, waste and recycling projects. <a href="https://michigansaves.org/news/press-release-michigan-invests-1-5-million-in-michigans-green-bank/">Michigan</a> created a nonprofit green bank called <a href="https://michigansaves.org/">Michigan Saves</a> that provides financing for energy efficiency. <a href="https://gems.hawaii.gov/">Hawaii’s</a> state-run green bank boosts solar energy use. </p>
<p>At the local level, Maryland’s <a href="https://www.marylandmatters.org/2022/05/27/its-not-that-easy-being-a-green-bank-in-maryland-but-its-getting-easier/">Montgomery County</a> has been financing rooftop and community solar, energy efficiency and electric vehicle charging infrastructure through a green bank since 2016. </p>
<p><a href="https://financenola.org/news/fano-changes-its-business-model-to-address-climate-change">Finance New Orleans</a> is a particularly instructive comparison – the 40-year-old housing finance agency recently transitioned to a climate-oriented business model to finance energy efficiency, stormwater management and green infrastructure projects for homeowners, businesses and local governments.</p>
<h2>A green bank for sustainable housing</h2>
<p>The new <a href="https://malegislature.gov/Bills/191/H2894">Massachusetts Community Climate Bank</a> is solely dedicated to climate-friendly and resilient affordable housing to meet the goals of the state’s <a href="https://www.mass.gov/info-details/massachusetts-clean-energy-and-climate-plan-for-2050">Climate Plan for 2050</a>. </p>
<p>That might include upgrading insulation and windows in older housing complexes to make them less leaky on hot and cold days, transitioning to electric household appliances such as heat pumps or adding solar panels and electric vehicle chargers.</p>
<p>Residential buildings are one of Massachusetts’ <a href="https://www.mass.gov/doc/clean-energy-and-climate-plan-for-2025-and-2030/download">largest sources</a> of greenhouse emissions, accounting for 19% of the total. Making housing more sustainable would cut those emissions and also help cut emissions in other sectors. For example, rooftop solar panels can reduce the demand for electricity from natural gas-fired power plants, allowing the state to close the plants or run them less often.</p>
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<img alt="A row of apartments that look like townhouses lines a street. A similar row is on the hill behind them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537430/original/file-20230714-29-yv3zo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537430/original/file-20230714-29-yv3zo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537430/original/file-20230714-29-yv3zo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537430/original/file-20230714-29-yv3zo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537430/original/file-20230714-29-yv3zo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537430/original/file-20230714-29-yv3zo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537430/original/file-20230714-29-yv3zo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An affordable housing development in Chelsea, Mass., a Boston suburb that has been under pressure from rising housing prices.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/highland-terrace-on-gerrish-ave-a-larger-newer-affordable-news-photo/1230261200">David L. Ryan/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The challenge is that the finance industry tends to view new technology and low-income households as risks. </p>
<p>Green banks are able to use public money to “de-risk” such investments. For example, they can lend at low rates to private or local lenders on the condition that they lend money at affordable rates for customers to electrify their heating. <a href="https://sites.tufts.edu/cierp/files/2021/09/CPL_Policy_Brief_US_Green_Bank-1.pdf">Other financial instruments</a> include loan guarantees, securitization and co-investment. </p>
<p>Massachusetts’ green bank started with an initial $50 million in state funds, but it expects to grow by attracting both private investors and federal funding.</p>
<p>The timing is strategic. The <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/cleanenergy/inflation-reduction-act-guidebook/">Inflation Reduction Act</a>, passed by Congress in 2022, includes funding for green banks. Among other commitments, it creates a $27 billion <a href="https://www.epa.gov/greenhouse-gas-reduction-fund">Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund</a>, <a href="http://www.ncelenviro.org/resources/green-banks-and-the-inflation-reduction-act-issue-brief/">$20 billion</a> of which is earmarked to be awarded to nonprofits to invest indirectly in green projects through other local financing entities – including green banks.</p>
<h2>Lessons from green banks around the world</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.climatepolicylab.org/">Climate Policy Lab</a> at Tufts University, where we work as researchers, studies green banks around the world.</p>
<p>We have found that by following a few <a href="https://sites.tufts.edu/cierp/files/2021/09/CPL_Policy_Brief_US_Green_Bank-1.pdf">foundational principles</a>, green banks can increase financing for climate priorities while remaining financially viable and without creating housing debt that owners can’t pay back. These organizations should:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Have a clear, well-defined mission.</p></li>
<li><p>Be profit-making, but not profit-maximizing.</p></li>
<li><p>Address market gaps rather than competing with private investment.</p></li>
<li><p>Be flexible enough to use a variety of financial instruments.</p></li>
<li><p>Have an independent, stable and nonpartisan governance structure to ensure stability.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>The Massachusetts green bank has a sector-focused mission that targets a market gap. Its focus on affordable housing could be clarified even more by tying it to the state definition of <a href="https://www.mass.gov/info-details/the-disadvantaged-community-program">disadvantaged communities</a>. The <a href="https://greenbank.ny.gov/Our-Impact/Impact-Report">NY Green Bank</a> in New York does this by aiming to have $100 million – about 35% of its total – invested in green housing to benefit disadvantaged communities by 2025.</p>
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<img alt="A large apartment building with solar panels on the roof and on shades over the parking area." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537146/original/file-20230712-23-qlcivd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537146/original/file-20230712-23-qlcivd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537146/original/file-20230712-23-qlcivd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537146/original/file-20230712-23-qlcivd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537146/original/file-20230712-23-qlcivd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537146/original/file-20230712-23-qlcivd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537146/original/file-20230712-23-qlcivd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A new sustainable apartment building in New York’s Rockaways neighborhood shows how solar panels and geothermal energy can help offset electric, heating and cooling costs for low-income residents.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/AffordableHousingNewYork/63038a0146a4418587f2eb5f28b2094c/photo">AP Photo/Mark Lennihan</a></span>
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<p>Focusing the Massachusetts bank’s climate mission will involve some tough decisions. For example, <a href="https://www.ctgreenbank.com/home-solutions/smart-e-loans/eligible-upgrades/">Connecticut’s Green Bank</a> supports gas appliances above defined energy efficiency thresholds, but there is an argument for <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/bio/lauren-urbanek/new-senate-bills-encourage-us-heat-pump-manufacturing-jobs">leapfrogging gas entirely</a> to support the electrification of heating and cooking instead.</p>
<h2>What else should green banks prioritize?</h2>
<p>Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is important for curbing future climate change, but communities will also have to adapt to the climate impacts ahead.</p>
<p>The fact that the Massachusetts green bank is dedicated to affordable housing is already one adaptation. <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/bio/sam-whillans/climate-report-confirms-housing-essential-adaptation">People who have homes</a> are far more protected from climate impacts than those who do not. And if those homes are powered by clean energy with lower utility bills, low-income residents can more easily <a href="https://theconversation.com/americas-power-disconnection-crisis-in-31-states-utilities-can-shut-off-electricity-for-nonpayment-in-a-heat-wave-208893">afford to cool their homes</a> in extreme heat waves.</p>
<p>Green banks could also fund <a href="https://www.oecd.org/environment/cc/policy-perspectives-climate-resilient-infrastructure.pdf">climate resilience</a>, such as adding green spaces around buildings for natural cooling. Research shows that affordable housing in the United States is often in <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-01/how-climate-change-is-targeting-affordable-housing">highly vulnerable locations</a>, such as those at risk of flooding. </p>
<p>The Connecticut Green Bank, for example, is piloting “<a href="https://portal.ct.gov/-/media/DEEP/climatechange/GC3/GC3-working-group-reports/GC3_Financing_funding_Adaptation_Resilience_Final_Report_111320.pdf">Property Assessed Resilience</a>,” which allows homeowners to borrow for flood protection upgrades and benefit immediately from increased property valuations and reduced insurance premiums. They can repay over decades through modest increases in their property tax bills. </p>
<p>Focusing on the <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/05/31/opinion/massachusetts-housing-moon-shot/">scarcity of affordable housing</a> can reduce both emissions and socioeconomic inequity simultaneously. In our view, that is the holy grail of climate policy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208098/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Massachusetts is establishing the first US green bank dedicated to sustainable affordable housing. Three experts in climate finance explain why better housing can help rein in global warming.Tarun Gopalakrishnan, Research Fellow, Climate Policy Lab, Tufts UniversityBethany Tietjen, Research Fellow in Climate Policy, The Fletcher School, Tufts UniversitySeth Owusu-Mante, Research Fellow in International Development, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2029002023-03-30T12:27:44Z2023-03-30T12:27:44ZCan this former CEO fix the World Bank and solve the world’s climate finance and debt crises as the institution’s next president?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518289/original/file-20230329-28-7q3t3y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C21%2C4848%2C3193&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ajay Banga is expected to become the next World Bank president.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/candidate-to-head-the-world-bank-ajay-banga-gestures-as-he-news-photo/1247854109">Issouf Sanogo/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past two years, a drumbeat of calls for reforming the World Bank has pushed its way onto the front pages of major newspapers and the agenda of heads of state.</p>
<p>Many low- and middle-income countries – the population the World Bank is tasked with helping – are falling deeper into debt and facing growing costs as the impacts of climate change increase in severity. A chorus of critics accuse the World Bank of <a href="https://www.bmz.de/en/news/press-releases/schulze-world-bank-annual-meetings-2022-125264">failing to evolve</a> to <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1258">meet the crises</a>.</p>
<p>The job of leading that reform now falls to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/02/23/biden-world-bank-nomination/">Ajay Banga</a>, an Indian American businessman and former CEO of Mastercard who was nominated by President Joe Biden to replace resigning World Bank President <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/15/climate/david-malpass-world-bank.html">David Malpass</a>. </p>
<p>Banga, <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/03/30/closing-of-nominations-for-world-bank-group-president">the only candidate</a> for the job, <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/05/03/ajay-banga-selected-14th-president-of-the-world-bank">was confirmed</a> by the World Bank’s <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/leadership/directors">executive directors</a> on May 3, 2023. His five-year term as president begins on June 2. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Ajay Banga, wearing a traditional Sikh turban and business suit, gestures as he speaks in front of a photo of workers picking vegetables." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518305/original/file-20230329-16-80inab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518305/original/file-20230329-16-80inab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518305/original/file-20230329-16-80inab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518305/original/file-20230329-16-80inab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518305/original/file-20230329-16-80inab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518305/original/file-20230329-16-80inab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518305/original/file-20230329-16-80inab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ajay Banga is a former Mastercard CEO, past chair of the International Chamber of Commerce and an American. The U.S. is the largest World Bank shareholder, and the institution’s president has historically been American.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/candidate-to-head-the-world-bank-ajay-banga-speaks-during-news-photo/1247898595">Tony Karumba/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There is no shortage of advice for what Banga and the World Bank need to do.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-does-g20-do">G-20</a> recently <a href="https://www.dt.mef.gov.it/en/attivita_istituzionali/rapporti_finanziari_internazionali/banche_sviluppo/revisione_indipendente/">issued a report</a> urging the World Bank and the other multilateral development banks to loosen their lending restrictions to get more money flowing to countries in need. A commission led by economists <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/publication/finance-for-climate-action-scaling-up-investment-for-climate-and-development/">Nicholas Stern and Vera Songwe</a> called for a rapid, sustained investment push that prioritizes transitioning to cleaner energy, achieving the <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/goals">U.N. sustainable development goals</a> and meeting the needs of increasingly vulnerable countries. </p>
<p>African ministers of finance will soon come out with their own “to do” list for the World Bank, and India’s minister of finance just pulled together <a href="https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/business/2368216-india-has-been-talking-about-how-multilateral-institutions-need-reform-sitharaman">an expert group</a> to consider World Bank reform.</p>
<p>Banga will walk into the job with these and many other to-do lists. Yet he will inherit a corporate culture that makes the World Bank Group <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099845101112322078/pdf/SECBOS0f51975e0e809b7605d7b690ebd20.pdf">too inwardly focused</a> and <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-treasury-secretary-janet-l-yellen-addresses-evolution-development-finance-csis">too slow to respond</a>.</p>
<p>I have <a href="https://fletcher.tufts.edu/people/staff/rachel-kyte">worked for the World Bank Group</a> and with it from the outside. I see four key roles – four “C’s” – that Banga will need to master from the outset. From his <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/02/23/biden-world-bank-nomination/">track record</a> and his reputation for deep thoughtfulness, I am confident that he can.</p>
<h2>1) Act as a CEO and get the entire World Bank Group house in order.</h2>
<p>The World Bank Group <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/who-we-are">is a conglomerate</a> with four balance sheets, three cultures and four executive boards, plus a dispute resolution arm.</p>
<p>Lending to low- and middle-income countries is just part of its role. The World Bank Group also <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/who-we-are/ibrd">provides technical assistance</a> across all areas of economic development and invests in and provides <a href="https://www.miga.org/">risk insurance</a> to <a href="https://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/corp_ext_content/ifc_external_corporate_site/about+ifc_new">encourage companies to invest</a> in projects and places they might otherwise consider too risky. Its ability to mobilize private-sector finance and stretch every dollar is crucial for meeting the world’s development and climate adaptation and mitigation needs.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">How the World Bank operates.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Banga will need to set clear goals for each part of the World Bank Group and get them working more effectively to help the world achieve its goals.</p>
<h2>2) Assume the mantle of collaborator in chief to take on the debt and climate crises.</h2>
<p>Many of the World Bank Group’s <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/annual-report/our-work">client countries</a> are facing both mounting debt and rising costs from climate change. </p>
<p>The high <a href="https://developmentfinance.un.org/fsdr2022">cost of borrowing</a> can hamper developing countries’ ability to invest in needed infrastructure to grow and protect their economies, and they fear being locked out of global trade as the United States’ green subsidies in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/big-new-incentives-for-clean-energy-arent-enough-the-inflation-reduction-act-was-just-the-first-step-now-the-hard-work-begins-188693">Inflation Reduction Act</a> and Europe’s border carbon tax may make it <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-us-eu-trade-tensions-rise-conflicting-carbon-tariffs-could-undermine-climate-efforts-198072">more difficult for them to compete</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://gisbarbados.gov.bb/download/the-2022-barbados-agenda/">solutions</a> to cascading problems like these cannot be managed by one institution. However, the current multilateral development bank system – the World Bank Group and the <a href="https://www.cgdev.org/publication/regional-development-banks-abcs-ifis-brief">regional development banks</a> – is disjointed at best <a href="https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/156240/adbi-wp385.pdf">and competitive</a> at worst.</p>
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<p>In the past, the leaders of the development banks, the International Monetary Fund and the World Trade Organization have cooperated, more or less, depending on crises and personalities, and can move fast when they need to.</p>
<p>During the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, for example, the then-heads of the World Bank and the WTO hurried to <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/reser_e/ersd200916_e.pdf">develop trade finance facilities</a> to support banks in developing countries as capital fled to the U.S. and Europe. It took intense diplomacy to push wealthy countries and institutions to get money out the door <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/financial-trade/update-2-global-trade-finance-gap-widens-as-recession-bites-idUSLI4771620090318">to shore up businesses and trade</a>. Success was measured not in months but in days.</p>
<p>The new president of the World Bank will need to support more radical collaboration among development financial institutions, including pooling capital and talent, to help respond quickly to countries’ needs.</p>
<p>It won’t be easy. Institutional rivalries run deep. But with <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/us-expects-bidens-nominee-ajay-banga-be-elected-world-bank-chief-2023-03-29">budgets tight</a>, there is growing clarity that there is no choice – <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-putins-war-and-small-islands-are-accelerating-the-global-shift-to-clean-energy-and-what-to-watch-for-in-2023-196925">the capital that is already in the system</a> is the closest at hand and can be deployed to better effect if the institutions are willing to adapt.</p>
<h2>3) Be a convener.</h2>
<p>Overhauling how international finance works will require everyone to be on board – development banks, central banks, regulators, investment banks, pension funds, insurance companies and private equity.</p>
<p>Banga and <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/About">International Monetary Fund</a> Managing Director <a href="https://commission.europa.eu/persons/kristalina-georgieva_en">Kristalina Georgieva</a> can settle institutional differences and present a coordinated face to private investors and the <a href="https://clubdeparis.org/en/communications/page/permanent-members">major lending countries</a>, including China – which has emerged as <a href="https://www.devex.com/news/china-is-owed-37-of-poor-countries-debt-payments-in-2022-world-bank-102463">the biggest holder</a> of developing country debt – to speed up support to struggling countries.</p>
<p>On other issues, such as <a href="https://www.iucn.org/our-work/nature-based-solutions">nature-based solutions to climate change</a>, building resilience and economic inclusion, the World Bank Group can bring its significant resources and skills, including data analysis, to global conversations that it has been painfully absent from for the past four years.</p>
<h2>4) Be a champion for the most vulnerable.</h2>
<p>The world’s most vulnerable people are the World Bank Group’s ultimate beneficiaries. For those living on the front line of biodiversity loss and climate impacts, such as extreme heat, drought and flooding, the current international financial system is proving inadequate.</p>
<p>The World Bank Group’s management incentives are still too oriented to lending approved by the board, not the outcomes of that lending, advice and assistance.</p>
<p>Throughout its history, World Bank leaders have been able to make <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/reser_e/ersd200916_e.pdf">rapid changes</a> to better help vulnerable countries when they stay close to the needs of their ultimate beneficiaries and the goals that the world has set.</p>
<p>The next president faces turbulent times. Banga’s careful listening on his campaign tour signals that he <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/7f1046cc-10fe-4a29-a92b-f0955761477b">understands the complexity</a>. It’s an extraordinary moment in the <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/world-bank-groups-role-global-development">history of the institution</a>, with sky-high expectations of what one leader needs to do.</p>
<p><em>This article, originally published March 30, 2023, has been updated with Banga’s approval to become World Bank president.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202900/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel Kyte served in several roles at the World Bank Group from 2000 to 2015.</span></em></p>It’s a crucial time for the World Bank, with growing calls for reform and sky-high expectations of what one leader needs to do. A former World Bank official explains the challenges ahead.Rachel Kyte, Dean of the Fletcher School, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1990462023-02-17T13:25:25Z2023-02-17T13:25:25ZThe war in Ukraine hasn’t left Europe freezing in the dark, but it has caused energy crises in unexpected places<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510639/original/file-20230216-18-pzle03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C15%2C5224%2C3101&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People protest in Dhaka, Bangladesh, over daily power cuts, July 27, 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-photo-taken-on-july-27-2022-shows-that-ganosamhati-news-photo/1242141617">Sony Ramany/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Through a year of war in Ukraine, the U.S. and most European nations have worked to help counter Russia, in supporting Ukraine both with armaments and in world energy markets. Russia was Europe’s main energy supplier when it invaded Ukraine, and President Vladimir Putin threatened to leave Europeans to freeze “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-blames-germany-west-nord-stream-1-shutdown-2022-09-07/">like a wolf’s tail</a>” – a reference to a famous Russian fairy tale – if they imposed sanctions on his country. </p>
<p>But thanks to a combination of preparation and luck, Europe has avoided blackouts and power cutoffs. Instead, less wealthy nations like Pakistan and India have contended with electricity outages on the back of unaffordably high global natural gas prices. As a global energy policy analyst, I see this as the latest evidence that less wealthy nations often suffer the most from globalized oil and gas crises. </p>
<p>I believe more volatility is possible. Russia has said that it will cut its crude oil production starting on March 1, 2023, <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/021323-russia-to-send-most-2023-oil-exports-to-friendly-countries-after-output-cut-announcement">by 500,000 barrels per day</a> in response to Western energy sanctions. This amount is about 5% of its current crude oil production, or 0.5% of world oil supply. Many analysts expected the move, but it <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-10/russia-plans-to-cut-march-oil-output-by-500-000-b-d-novak-says">raises concerns</a> about whether more reductions could come in the future. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Europe has avoided an energy crisis in the winter of 2022-2023, but the coming year could be more challenging.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>How Europe has kept the lights on</h2>
<p>As Russia’s intent toward Ukraine became clear in late 2021 and early 2022, many governments and energy experts feared one result would be <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-the-us-find-enough-natural-gas-sources-to-neutralize-russias-energy-leverage-over-europe-175824">an energy crisis in Europe</a>. But one factor that Putin couldn’t control was the weather. Mild temperatures in Europe in recent months, along with proactive conservation policies, have reduced natural gas consumption in key European markets such as Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europe-should-thank-mild-autumn-averting-gas-crisis-this-winter-kemp-2022-12-16/">by 25%</a>. </p>
<p>With less need for electricity and natural gas, European governments were able to delay drawing on natural gas inventories that they built up over the summer and autumn of 2022. At this point, a continental energy crisis is much less likely than many forecasts predicted. </p>
<p>European natural gas stockpiles are <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-13/european-natural-gas-is-stuck-in-storage-after-prices-plunged-from-peak">around 67% full</a>, and they will probably still be 50% full at the end of this winter. This will help the continent position itself for next winter as well. </p>
<p>The situation is similar for coal. European utilities stockpiled coal and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f662a412-9ebc-473a-baca-22de5ff622e2">reactivated 26 coal-fired power plants</a> in 2022, anticipating a possible winter energy crisis. But so far, the continent’s coal use has risen only 7%, and the reactivated coal plants are averaging <a href="https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/european-electricity-review-2023/">just 18% of their operating capacity</a> </p>
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<h2>The U.S. role</h2>
<p>Record-high U.S. energy exports in the summer and fall of 2022 also buoyed European energy security. The U.S. exported close to 10 million cubic meters per month of liquefied natural gas in 2022, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-lng-exports-both-lifeline-drain-europe-2023-maguire-2022-12-20/">up 137% from 2021</a>, providing roughly half of all of Europe’s imported LNG. </p>
<p>Although domestic U.S. natural gas production <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-natgas-output-hit-record-high-2023-demand-fall-2023-01-10/">surged to record levels</a>, some producers had the opportunity to export into high-priced global markets. As a result, surpluses of summer natural gas didn’t emerge inside the U.S. market, as might otherwise have happened. Combined with unusually hot summer temperatures, which drove up energy demand for cooling, the export surge socked U.S. consumers with the highest natural gas prices they had experienced <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/17/energy/natural-gas-inflation-heat-wave/index.html">since 2008</a>. </p>
<p>Prices also soared at U.S. gas pumps, reaching or exceeding US$5 per gallon in the early summer of 2022 – the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2022/06/09/5-milestone-gas-prices-hit-an-all-time-national-high/?sh=5ce0940654bd">highest average ever recorded</a> by the American Automobile Association. The U.S. exported <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/061022-feature-us-drivers-in-for-expensive-summer-as-refiners-grapple-with-high-demand">close to 1 million barrels per day</a> of gasoline, mainly to Mexico and Central America, plus some to France, and consolidated its position as a <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/imports-and-exports.php">net oil exporter</a> – that is, it exports more oil than it imports.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510664/original/file-20230216-14-ey1fpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A tugboat leads a massive tanker through marshes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510664/original/file-20230216-14-ey1fpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510664/original/file-20230216-14-ey1fpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510664/original/file-20230216-14-ey1fpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510664/original/file-20230216-14-ey1fpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510664/original/file-20230216-14-ey1fpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510664/original/file-20230216-14-ey1fpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510664/original/file-20230216-14-ey1fpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A tugboat helps guide the LNG Endeavor, a French liquefied natural gas tanker, through Calcasieu Lake near Hackberry, La., March 31, 2022. U.S. LNG exports to Europe reached record levels in 2022 as the continent prepared to sever energy ties with Russia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/FloatingLNGClimateImpacts/40c4911770d54b64924b7fff060ebd22/photo">AP Photo/Martha Irvine</a></span>
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<p>Much like Europeans, U.S. consumers had to pay high prices to outbid other global consumers for oil and natural gas amid global supply disruptions and competition for available cargoes. High gasoline prices were <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-gas-tax-holiday-biden-says-it-will-provide-a-little-bit-of-relief-but-experts-say-even-that-may-be-a-stretch-185676">a political headache for the Biden administration</a> through the spring and summer of 2022.</p>
<p>However, these high prices belied the fact that U.S. domestic gasoline use <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/01/21/gasoline-demand-has-peaked-in-america-drivers-will-benefit-in-long-run/">has stopped growing</a>. Forecasts suggest that it will decline further in 2023 and beyond as the fuel economy of U.S. cars continues to improve and the number of electric vehicles on the road expands. </p>
<p>While energy prices were a burden, especially to lower-income households, European and American consumers have been able to ride out price surges driven by the war in Ukraine and have so far avoided actual outages and the worst recessionary fears. And their governments are offering <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-most-cost-effective-energy-efficiency-investments-you-can-make-and-how-the-new-inflation-reduction-act-could-help-188506">big economic incentives</a> to switch to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-03/who-s-better-at-climate-tech-incentives-us-or-europe?sref=Hjm5biAW">clean energy technologies</a> intended to reduce their nations’ need for fossil fuels.</p>
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<h2>Developing nations priced out</h2>
<p>The same can’t be said for consumers in developing nations like Pakistan, Bangladesh and India, who have experienced the energy cutoffs that were feared but didn’t occur in Europe. Notably, Europe’s intensive energy stockpiling in the summer of 2022 caused a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-24/pakistan-faces-deeper-power-crisis-as-lng-becomes-too-expensive?sref=Hjm5biAW">huge jump in global prices</a> for liquefied natural gas. In response, many utilities in less developed nations <a href="https://www.naturalgasintel.com/south-asia-buyers-again-sidelined-by-high-lng-spot-prices/">cut their natural gas purchases</a>, creating price-related electricity outages in some regions.</p>
<p>Faced with continuing high global energy prices, countries in the <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/global-south-countries">global south</a> – Africa, Asia and Latin America – have had to <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/europes-energy-crunch-eill-trigger-years-of-shortages-and-blackouts-101667874654951.html">reevaluate their dependence on foreign imports</a>. <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/global-coal-demand-is-set-to-return-to-its-all-time-high-in-2022">Increased use of coal</a> has made headlines, but renewable energy is starting to offer greater advantages, both because it is <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/renewables-cheapest-energy-source/">more affordable</a> and because governments can frame it as <a href="https://apnews.com/article/business-climate-and-environment-government-politics-60b7c65cca2c38c26a960d14732bb8bb">more secure and a source of domestic jobs</a>. </p>
<p>India, for example, is <a href="https://sites.tufts.edu/cierp/files/2022/09/CPL_PB2206_v5.pdf">doubling down on renewable energy</a>, unveiling plans to produce hydrogen fuel for heavy industry using renewable energy and moving away from imported LNG. Several African countries, such as Ethiopia, are <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2022/05/10/the-promise-of-african-clean-hydrogen-exports-potentials-and-pitfalls/">fast-tracking development of hydropower</a>.</p>
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<h2>Energy prices and climate justice</h2>
<p>The energy challenge that the Russia-Ukraine crisis has bred in developing countries has intensified global discussions about climate justice. One less examined impact of giant clean tech stimulus plans enacted in wealthy nations, such as the United States’ <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-most-cost-effective-energy-efficiency-investments-you-can-make-and-how-the-new-inflation-reduction-act-could-help-188506">Inflation Reduction Act</a>, is that they keep much of the available funding for climate finance at home. As a result, some developing country leaders worry that a clean energy technology knowledge gap <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2022/05/10/the-promise-of-african-clean-hydrogen-exports-potentials-and-pitfalls/">will widen, not shrink</a>, as the energy transition gains momentum. </p>
<p>Worsening the problem, members of the G-7 forum of wealthy nations have <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1016">tightened their monetary policies</a> to control war-driven inflation. This drives up the cost of debt and makes it harder for developing countries to borrow money to invest in clean energy. </p>
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<p>The U.S. is supporting a new approach called <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/energysource/just-energy-transition-partnerships-will-cop27-deliver-for-emerging-economies/">Just Energy Transition Partnerships</a>, in which wealthy nations provide funding to help developing countries shift away from coal-fired power plants, retrain workers and recruit private-sector investors to help finance decarbonization projects. But these solutions are negotiated bilaterally between individual countries, and the pace is slow. </p>
<p>When nations gather in the United Arab Emirates in late 2023 for the next round of global climate talks, wealthy nations – including Middle East oil producers – will face demands for new ways of financing energy security improvements in less wealthy countries. The world’s rich nations pledged in 2009 to direct $100 billion yearly to less wealthy nations by 2020 to help them adapt to climate change and decarbonize their economies, but <a href="https://theconversation.com/wealthy-countries-still-havent-met-their-100-billion-pledge-to-help-poor-countries-face-climate-change-and-the-risks-are-rising-173229">are far behind on fulfilling this promise</a>.</p>
<p>U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called on developed nations to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/un-secretary-general-says-polluters-must-pay-calls-extra-tax-fossil-fu-rcna48648">tax fossil fuel companies</a>, which reported record profits in 2022, and use the money to fund climate adaptation in low-income countries. New solutions are needed, because without some kind of <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02846-3">major progress</a>, wealthy nations will continue outbidding developing nations for the energy resources that the world’s <a href="https://www.un.org/ohrlls/news/frontline-climate-crisis-worlds-most-vulnerable-nations-suffer-disproportionately">most vulnerable people</a> desperately need.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199046/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Myers Jaffe receives funding from U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration. </span></em></p>Russia tried to weaponize energy to keep European nations from opposing its war in Ukraine, but the real pain from Putin’s actions and Western sanctions has been felt far from Europe.Amy Myers Jaffe, Director, Energy, Climate Justice, and Sustainability Lab, and Research Professor, New York UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1948682022-11-28T16:59:38Z2022-11-28T16:59:38ZOur US$10 trillion global energy bill dwarfs what’s needed to limit global heating<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497665/original/file-20221128-12-mduqne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6006%2C4016&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">William Potter / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The world’s energy bill for 2022 is set to be the highest ever, topping <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/b0beda65-8a1d-46ae-87a2-f95947ec2714/WorldEnergyInvestment2022.pdf">US$10 trillion</a> (£8.3 trillion). This is the total price paid for all forms of energy across all sectors by all people. Something like 80% of this bill is for coal, oil or gas, or for electricity generated from these fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Our addiction to energy is equivalent to more than 10% of <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD">global GDP</a>. Infuriatingly, a lot of the energy we buy goes up in smoke or wasted heat before it even gets a chance to do any useful heating, cooling, cooking, transporting or manufacturing. Energy spending is now greater than total global <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights/the-economic-transformation-what-would-change-in-the-net-zero-transition">tax revenue</a> or <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights/the-economic-transformation-what-would-change-in-the-net-zero-transition">corporate profits</a> and dwarfs <a href="https://milex.sipri.org/sipri">military expenditure</a>. When energy prices are high, as they are now, a good proportion of our overall energy bill becomes profit in the pockets of oil and gas producers.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497647/original/file-20221128-17-y5rec9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart with different sized circles" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497647/original/file-20221128-17-y5rec9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497647/original/file-20221128-17-y5rec9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497647/original/file-20221128-17-y5rec9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497647/original/file-20221128-17-y5rec9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497647/original/file-20221128-17-y5rec9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497647/original/file-20221128-17-y5rec9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497647/original/file-20221128-17-y5rec9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Global climate finance, investment and key climate negotiation numbers (to scale).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author's work (data: OECD, World Bank, IEA 2020-22, latest available year used)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>In the natural world, most species thrive by exquisite optimisation of their energy consumption. <a href="https://theconversation.com/sloths-arent-lazy-their-slowness-is-a-survival-skill-63568">Seemingly-lazy animals</a> ensure they use just enough energy to survive – and no more. </p>
<p>Our high-energy, high-carbon human society is rather different. Each year, we spend no less than four times more on our energy bills than we do investing to minimise and avoid those bills in the future. The good news is that the tide has turned and <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2022/overview-and-key-findings">annual investments in clean energy</a> (US$1.4 trillion) are now greater than investments in fossil fuel systems (US$1 trillion). </p>
<p>But we still waste energy spectacularly, and we could quickly and practically do something about it. The IPCC has <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2022/04/04/ipcc-ar6-wgiii-pressrelease/">said</a> that “there are options available now in every sector that can at least halve emissions by 2030.”</p>
<p>When energy is expensive and the climate clock is ticking, this is a massive missed opportunity to pump solar and wind energy instead of oil and gas.</p>
<h2>COP in context</h2>
<p>Numbers involved in the recent COP27 climate negotiations are put to shame by the amount being spent in the real world outside the negotiating rooms. </p>
<p>For instance, a goal to send US$100 billion a year to climate-vulnerable nations by 2020 was introduced in 2009 and enshrined in the 2015 Paris Agreement but has still not been met. The latest figure was <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/286dae5d-en.pdf?expires=1668262973&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=09CCCBC4498885E611CCBB06D7581A58">US$83.3 billion</a> in 2020. </p>
<p>US$100 billion is just 1% of global consumers’ energy bills. Even the US$1 trillion cost of climate-related <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-the-big-issue-of-cop27-climate-summit-poor-nations-face-a-1trillion-loss-and-damage-bill-but-rich-nations-wont-pay-up-194043">loss and damage</a> is still just 10% of our current annual energy bill.</p>
<p>It is still possible, even now, to stick to the Paris Agreement and limit global heating below 2°C through a rapid transition towards clean energy systems. But it will require a lot of investment. By the end of the decade, the amount of extra funding and investment needed to achieve our climate and sustainable development goals will be double the amount the world <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/b0beda65-8a1d-46ae-87a2-f95947ec2714/WorldEnergyInvestment2022.pdf">invests in all kinds of energy</a> this year.</p>
<h2>Harnessing the rules of finance and economics</h2>
<p>The global economy is of course dynamic. The IEA’s latest <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022">energy scenarios</a> are based on a global economy in 2050 of more than double its current size and an increase in human population from 8 billion to just under 10 billion. With long-term historic growth at around 3% a year, things are always changing. This in turn means a lot of investment in infrastructure happens “naturally”. Indeed, each year, around a quarter of our GDP is spent on <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.GDI.FTOT.CD">new machinery, buildings and infrastructure</a>. </p>
<p>But, as part of a shift away from fossil fuels, we could reduce some of that investment in fossil fuel infrastructure, meaning fewer new oil wells, coal power plants, gas pipelines and so on. That money could instead be invested in clean energy systems. </p>
<p>There’s more: investments in energy efficiency and renewables can take into account the avoided future costs of energy along with the environmental and social problems associated with fossil fuels. We call this net <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights/the-economic-transformation-what-would-change-in-the-net-zero-transition">incremental investment</a> and cost accounting.</p>
<p>It may not sound sexy, but this way of thinking is possibly our greatest weapon in the fight to limit the costs of climate change. It is why capital investments in the real world are being redirected towards energy efficiency and modern clean energy systems.</p>
<p>While the <a href="https://www.livescience.com/50941-second-law-thermodynamics.html">second law of thermodynamics</a> means we always have to work (often hard) to gather and concentrate energy into forms and products we need, we can do much better at exploiting the laws of finance and economics to tackle climate change. Reducing our global energy bill is the key.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194868/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Peake does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We can be much better at exploiting finance and economics to tackle climate change.Stephen Peake, Professor of Climate Change and Energy, The Open UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1948192022-11-23T04:24:24Z2022-11-23T04:24:24ZAdapting to a hotter planet has never been more important, and progress edged forward at COP27<p>As the COP27 climate summit <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-one-big-breakthrough-but-ultimately-an-inadequate-response-to-the-climate-crisis-194056">drew to a close</a> over the weekend, it’s important to acknowledge that progress was made on climate adaptation – even if more can be done.</p>
<p>“Climate adaptation” is a term for how countries adapt to the impacts of climate change. It could be, for instance, by strengthening infrastructure to better withstand disasters, moving towns out of floodplains, or transforming the agriculture sector to minimise food insecurity. </p>
<p>As the costs of disasters climb, working out who will finance climate adaptation has become increasingly urgent for developing nations. For decades, they’ve called upon wealthy countries – largely responsible for causing the climate crisis in the first place – to foot the bill.</p>
<p>So let’s explore what COP27 achieved, how these achievements might translate into tangible commitments, and what must happen now to give everyone a fighting chance to survive on a hotter planet.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Adaptation & Agriculture day at COP27.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>A thorny issue</h2>
<p>The thorniest issues at climate change negotiations are about finance: who is giving, who is receiving, how is the money received and what kind of finance is made available. </p>
<p>Developed countries don’t have a good track record on this. In 2009, they committed to mobilising US$100 billion per year of climate finance by 2020 – a target that <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02846-3">remains unmet</a>. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-one-big-breakthrough-but-ultimately-an-inadequate-response-to-the-climate-crisis-194056">COP27: one big breakthrough but ultimately an inadequate response to the climate crisis</a>
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<p>What’s more, most climate finance so far has been <a href="https://www.oecd.org/environment/statement-by-the-oecd-secretary-general-on-climate-finance-trends-to-2020.htm">directed towards</a> helping developing nations mitigate their emissions, rather than for adaptation. </p>
<p>As Dina Saleh, the Regional Director of the United Nations International Fund for Agricultural Development, <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/11/1130517?utm_source=UN+News+-+Newsletter&utm_campaign=b64f0c7417-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2022_11_12_06_24&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_fdbf1af606-b64f0c7417-107091541">explained</a> during the conference, failing to help rural populations adapt could lead to more poverty, migrations and conflict. She said:</p>
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<p>We are calling on world leaders from developed nations to honour their pledge to provide the $100 billion a year in climate finance to developing nations and to channel half of that [for] climate adaptation.</p>
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<h2>Adaptation finance still falls short</h2>
<p>The United Nations has established <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/introduction-to-climate-finance#:%7E:text=In%20addition%20to%20providing%20guidance,the%20Kyoto%20Protocol%20in%202001.">different funds</a> to channel adaptation finance, including the Least Developed Countries Fund, Special Climate Change Fund and Adaptation Fund. </p>
<p>At COP27, eight countries pledged US$105.6 million <a href="https://www.thegef.org/newsroom/press-releases/countries-pledge-added-support-gef-funds-urgent-climate-adaptation">for adaptation</a> via the Least Developed Countries Fund and Special Climate Change Fund, including Sweden, Germany and Ireland. Others, such as the United States and Canada, expressed potential future financial commitments. </p>
<p>These funds are in addition to the US$413 million promised at COP26 in Glasgow last year, via the Least Developed Countries Fund. The money <a href="https://www.thegef.org/newsroom/press-releases/countries-pledge-added-support-gef-funds-urgent-climate-adaptation">will target</a> the most urgently needed adaptation efforts, such as strengthening infrastructure, social safety nets and diversifying livelihoods. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27s-loss-and-damage-fund-for-developing-countries-could-be-a-breakthrough-or-another-empty-climate-promise-194992">COP27's ‘loss and damage’ fund for developing countries could be a breakthrough – or another empty climate promise</a>
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<p>There is also a specific new funding for small-island developing states. While this development has been welcomed by the <a href="https://www.aosis.org">Alliance of Small Island States</a>, it also says faster processes are needed to make the money available. </p>
<p>Small island nations such as Tuvalu are already experiencing severe climate impacts, and the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter15.pdf">projections</a> are dire. For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found some atoll islands are likely to experience coral bleaching every year by 2040. </p>
<p>These islands are also particularly vulnerable to tropical cyclones. One single large event can set development back years. For example, in 2016 tropical cyclone Winston took out over <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2022/04/11/on-the-frontlines-of-climate-change-small-island-states-can-lead-in-resilience">a third of</a> Fiji’s GDP in about 36 hours. </p>
<p>Similarly, other highly vulnerable nations across Africa and Asia are asking for easier access to adaptation finance. The <a href="https://www.adaptation-fund.org">Adaptation Fund</a> included an innovation that gave countries easier access to money, and ensured it responds directly to each country’s needs. </p>
<p>At COP27, this fund received over US$230 million in new pledges. However, it <a href="https://www.adaptation-fund.org/adaptation-fund-receives-over-us-230-million-mobilized-in-2022-for-the-most-climate-vulnerable-at-cop27-in-egypt/?utm_source=Climate+Weekly&utm_campaign=260c95efbe-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2022_11_06_09_26_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_bf939f9418-260c95efbe-407951649">currently has</a> <em>unfunded</em> adaptation projects worth US$380 million in the pipeline, signalling the urgent need to ramp up finance. </p>
<h2>Progress is edging forward</h2>
<p>The Paris Agreement in 2015 set the “global goal on adaptation” to drive collective progress on climate adaptation worldwide. At COP27, <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/adaptation-and-resilience/workstreams/glasgow-sharm-el-sheikh-WP-GGGA">countries agreed</a> to develop a framework for this goal in 2023. This includes gender-responsive approaches, and science-based metrics and targets to track progress.</p>
<p>Another big-ticket item is the “global stocktake” on adaptation, which measures progress at the national level on fulfilling Paris Agreement obligations. </p>
<p>At COP27, it was noted <a href="https://napcentral.org/submitted-naps">only 40 countries</a> so far have submitted their national adaptation plans, which identify adaptation priorities and strategies for reducing climate vulnerability. Questions remain about how to accelerate the planning, implementation and financing of these plans.</p>
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<p>The Sharm-el-Seikh <a href="https://climatechampions.unfccc.int/cop27-presidency-announces-ambitous-climate-resilience-agenda/">Adaptation Agenda</a> was also launched by the two UN-appointed High-Level Climate Champions. These seek to engage non-state actors, such as cities, businesses and investors, to boost ambition for climate adaptation. </p>
<p>The agenda’s ultimate aim is to help 4 billion people become more resilient to climate change impacts by 2030. It has 30 adaptation outcomes to aim for, including:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>protecting 3 billion people from disasters by installing smart and early warning systems in the most vulnerable communities</p></li>
<li><p>investing US$4 billion to secure the future of 15 million hectares of mangroves worldwide </p></li>
<li><p>mobilising US$140-300 billion across both public and private finance sources for adaptation.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>What now?</h2>
<p>Many pledges on adaptation finance have been made in COP26 and COP27, and the next step is to get the money where it is most urgently needed. </p>
<p>As climate impacts are already unfolding rapidly, communities worldwide must develop the capacity to plan for climate adaptation. This requires action at every level, and shouldn’t be left to local communities alone. </p>
<p>Making progress on climate adaptation in the coming years is crucial. Early action and planning can save thousands of dollars, but only if we have robust processes in place to make decisions before impacts occur. This calls for more planning, investments and collaboration across local, regional, state and international levels. </p>
<p>But most important is the willingness to change our mindset. We must stop operating in a business-as-usual model and push for a more sustainable world in this changing climate. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-changes-impact-on-mental-health-is-overlooked-and-misunderstood-heres-what-can-be-done-194128">Climate change's impact on mental health is overlooked and misunderstood – here's what can be done</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194819/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Johanna Nalau has received funding from the Australian Research Council for her climate adaptation research. She is is also a Lead Author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II on the Small Islands chapter, and a Lead Author for the Summary for Policymakers. She is also the Co-chair of the Science Committee in the World Adaptation Science Program.</span></em></p>As the costs of disasters climb, working out who will finance climate adaptation has become increasingly urgent for developing nations.Johanna Nalau, Research Fellow, Climate Adaptation, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1940562022-11-20T12:11:22Z2022-11-20T12:11:22ZCOP27: one big breakthrough but ultimately an inadequate response to the climate crisis<p>For 30 years, developing nations have fought to establish an international fund to pay for the “loss and damage” they suffer as a result of climate change. As the COP27 climate summit in Egypt wrapped up over the weekend, they finally succeeded. </p>
<p>While it’s a historic moment, the agreement of loss and damage financing left many details yet to be sorted out. What’s more, many <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/quote-box-reaction-to-un-climate-meet-deal-on-disaster-fund/2022/11/19/5ec52c1e-6880-11ed-b08c-3ce222607059_story.html">critics</a> have lamented the overall outcome of COP27, saying it falls well short of a sufficient response to the climate crisis. As Alok Sharma, president of COP26 in Glasgow, noted: </p>
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<p>Friends, I said in Glasgow that the pulse of 1.5 degrees was weak. Unfortunately it remains on life support. </p>
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<p>But annual conferences aren’t the only way to pursue meaningful action on climate change. Mobilisation from activists, market forces and other sources of momentum mean hope isn’t lost.</p>
<h2>One big breakthrough: loss and damage</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/19/five-crucial-issues-in-fight-to-save-planet-and-what-cop27-did-about-them">There were hopes</a> COP27 would lead to new commitments on emissions reduction, renewed commitments for the transfer of resources to the developing world, strong signals for a transition away from fossil fuels, and the establishment of a loss and damage fund. </p>
<p>By any estimation, the big breakthrough of COP27 was the agreement to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-20/cop27-accord-overdue-climate-fund-approved/101675524">establish a fund</a> for loss and damage. This would involve wealthy nations compensating developing states for the effects of climate change, especially droughts, floods, cyclones and other disasters. </p>
<p>Most analysts have been quick to point out there’s still a lot yet to clarify in terms of donors, recipients or rules of accessing this fund. It’s not clear where funds will actually come from, or whether countries such as <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/developed-or-developing-china-question-divides-cop27-as-bowen-meets-counterpart-20221118-p5bzav.html">China</a> will contribute, for example. These and other details are yet to be agreed. </p>
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<p>We should also acknowledge the potential gaps between promises and money on the table, given <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02846-3">the failure</a> of developed states to deliver on US$100 billion per year of climate finance for developing states by 2020. This was committed to in Copenghagen in 2009.</p>
<p>But it was a <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2022/11/cop27-climate-loss-damage-talks-now-on-agenda-but-u-s-resistance-feared/">significant fight</a> to get the issue of loss and damage <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-the-big-issue-of-cop27-climate-summit-poor-nations-face-a-1trillion-loss-and-damage-bill-but-rich-nations-wont-pay-up-194043">on the agenda</a> in Egypt at all. So the agreement to establish this fund is clearly a monumental outcome for developing countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change – and least responsible for it. </p>
<p>It was also a win for the Egyptian hosts, who were <a href="https://theconversation.com/almost-200-nations-are-set-to-tackle-climate-change-at-cop27-in-egypt-is-this-just-a-talkfest-or-does-the-meeting-actually-matter-191586">keen to flag</a> their sensitivity to issues confronting the developing world. </p>
<p>The fund comes 30 years after the measure was <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/03/opinions/cop27-climate-loss-and-damage-vanuatu-sutter/index.html">first suggested</a> by Vanuatu back in 1991. </p>
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<h2>Not-so-good news</h2>
<p>The loss and damage fund will almost certainly be remembered as the marquee outcome of COP27, but other developments were less promising. Among these were various fights to retain commitments made in Paris in 2015 and Glasgow last year. </p>
<p>In Paris, nations agreed to limit global warming to well below 2°C, and preferably to 1.5°C this century, compared to pre-industrial levels. So far, the planet has warmed <a href="https://theconversation.com/this-is-the-most-sobering-report-card-yet-on-climate-change-and-earths-future-heres-what-you-need-to-know-165395">by 1.09°C</a>, and emissions are <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-carbon-emissions-at-record-levels-with-no-signs-of-shrinking-new-data-shows-humanity-has-a-monumental-task-ahead-193108">at record levels</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/global-carbon-emissions-at-record-levels-with-no-signs-of-shrinking-new-data-shows-humanity-has-a-monumental-task-ahead-193108">Global carbon emissions at record levels with no signs of shrinking, new data shows. Humanity has a monumental task ahead</a>
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<p>Temperature trajectories make it increasingly challenging for the world to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C. And the fact keeping this commitment in Egypt was a hard-won fight casts some doubt on the global commitment to mitigation. China in particular <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/16/climate/cop27-global-warming-1-5-celsius.html">had questioned</a> whether the 1.5°C target was worth retaining, and this became a key contest in the talks.</p>
<p>New Zealand Climate Change Minister James Shaw <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/quote-box-reaction-to-un-climate-meet-deal-on-disaster-fund/2022/11/19/5ec52c1e-6880-11ed-b08c-3ce222607059_story.html">said</a> a group of countries were undermining decisions made in previous conferences. He added this:</p>
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<p>really came to the fore at this COP, and I’m afraid there was just a massive battle which ultimately neither side won.</p>
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<p>Perhaps even <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/b3a6ea05-1357-4564-a448-27b16a376a4a">more worrying</a> was the absence of a renewed commitment to phase out fossil fuels, which had been flagged in Glasgow. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/20/cop27-agrees-to-historic-loss-and-damage-fund-to-compensate-developing-countries-for-climate-impacts">Oil-producing countries</a> in particular fought this.</p>
<p>Instead, the final text noted only the need for a “phase down of unabated coal power”, which <a href="https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/7988167/critics-lament-cop27-deal-lack-of-ambition/">many viewed</a> as inadequate for the urgency of the challenge.</p>
<p>Likewise, hoped-for rules to stop <a href="https://theconversation.com/toxic-cover-up-6-lessons-australia-can-draw-from-the-uns-scathing-report-on-greenwashing-194054">greenwashing</a> and new restrictions on carbon markets weren’t forthcoming. </p>
<p>Both this outcome, and the failure to develop new commitments to phase out fossil fuels, <a href="https://www.scimex.org/newsfeed/cop27-agreement-what-has-it-achieved">arguably reflect</a> the power of fossil fuel interests and lobbyists. COP26 President Alok Sharma captured the frustration of countries in the high-ambition coalition, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/quote-box-reaction-to-un-climate-meet-deal-on-disaster-fund/2022/11/19/5ec52c1e-6880-11ed-b08c-3ce222607059_story.html">saying</a>: </p>
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<p>We joined with many parties to propose a number of measures that would have contributed to [raising ambition]. </p>
<p>Emissions peaking before 2025 as the science tells us is necessary. Not in this text. Clear follow through on the phase down of coal. Not in this text. Clear commitments to phase out all fossil fuels. Not in this text. And the energy text weakened in the final minutes. </p>
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<p>And as United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2022/nov/19/cop27-fears-15c-target-danger-negotiations-overrun-live">lamented</a>: “Our planet is still in the emergency room”. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/toxic-cover-up-6-lessons-australia-can-draw-from-the-uns-scathing-report-on-greenwashing-194054">'Toxic cover-up': 6 lessons Australia can draw from the UN's scathing report on greenwashing</a>
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<h2>Beyond COP27?</h2>
<p>In the end, exhausted delegates signed off on an inadequate agreement, but largely avoided the backsliding that looked possible over fraught days of negotiations. </p>
<p>The establishment of a fund for loss and damage is clearly an important outcome of COP27, even with details yet to be fleshed out. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1594204264657981440"}"></div></p>
<p>But otherwise, the negotiations can’t be seen as an unambiguously positive outcome for action on the climate crisis – especially with very little progress on mitigating emissions. And while the world dithers, the window of opportunity to respond effectively to the climate crisis continues to close. </p>
<p>It’s important to note, however, that while COPs are clearly significant in the international response to the climate crisis, they’re not the only game in town. </p>
<p>Public mobilisation and activism, market forces, aid and development programs, and legislation at local, state and national levels are all important sites of climate politics – and potentially, significant change. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/throwing-soup-on-a-van-gogh-and-other-ways-young-climate-activists-are-making-their-voices-heard-193210">Throwing soup on a Van Gogh and other ways young climate activists are making their voices heard</a>
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<p>There are myriad examples. Take the international phenomenon of <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-young-climate-activists-are-making-their-voices-heard-at-cop27-over-egypts-protest-suppression-193210">school climate strikes</a>, or climate activist Mike Cannon-Brookes’ <a href="https://theconversation.com/cannon-brookes-shakes-up-agl-what-now-for-australias-biggest-carbon-emitter-194625">takeover of AGL Energy</a>. They point to the possibility of action on climate change outside formal international climate negotiations. </p>
<p>So if you’re despairing at the limited progress at COP27, remember this: nations and communities determined to wean themselves off fossil fuels will do more to blunt the power of the sector than most international agreements could realistically hope to achieve.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194056/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt McDonald has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the UK's Economic and Social Research Council</span></em></p>The big news of COP27 was agreement to establish a fund for ‘loss and damage’. But many lamented the summit’s overall outcome, saying it falls short of a sufficient response to the climate crisis.Matt McDonald, Associate Professor of International Relations, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1947192022-11-17T02:12:24Z2022-11-17T02:12:24ZOnce again, wealthy nations are letting down poor nations at the Egypt climate talks<p>Short of a miracle, it seems unlikely the COP27 climate change negotiations in Egypt will deliver any concrete action on loss and damage. </p>
<p>“<a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/adaptation-and-resilience/the-big-picture/introduction-to-loss-and-damage">Loss and damage</a>” refers to the harms of climate change on human society and the natural environment that can’t be avoided by bringing down emissions or adapting. The costs of recovering from these harms, such as intensifying disasters, are climbing, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-the-big-issue-of-cop27-climate-summit-poor-nations-face-a-1trillion-loss-and-damage-bill-but-rich-nations-wont-pay-up-194043">poor countries have been calling on</a> wealthy countries to foot the bill. </p>
<p>Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley has emerged as the leading advocate for loss and damage finance at COP27. She <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/video/2022/nov/08/barbados-pm-hails-loss-damage-addition-climate-agenda-cop27-video#:%7E:text=Mia%20Mottley%20has%20celebrated%20'loss,to%20the%20agenda%20of%20Cop27.">argues</a> climate-vulnerable nations like hers “have a moral and just cause”. </p>
<p>At the start of COP27, she praised the inclusion of loss and damage on the negotiating agenda as a recognition that countries who have barely contributed to global warming shouldn’t be “choosing between the financing of education and health or the reconstruction of our societies”.</p>
<p>As we near the end of the summit, it looks like wealthy countries will be letting these vulnerable nations down. But negotiations are expected to drag on over the weekend, and surprise agreements might still emerge.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/famine-should-not-exist-in-2022-yet-somalia-faces-its-worst-yet-wealthy-countries-pay-your-dues-191952">Famine should not exist in 2022, yet Somalia faces its worst yet. Wealthy countries, pay your dues</a>
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</em>
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<h2>Ending in a fizz</h2>
<p>Although <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/cop27-in-sharm-el-sheikh-to-focus-on-delivering-on-the-promises-of-paris">billed as</a> an “implementation” rather than an “ambition” conference, the inclusion of loss and damage on COP27’s negotiating agenda raised hopes progress might yet be achieved on this thorny issue. </p>
<p>Powerful speeches calling for climate justice from leaders such as Motley, as well as the Prime Minister of flood-ravaged Pakistan <a href="https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1007952-cpo27-pm-shehbaz-asks-intl-community-to-take-joint-responsibility">Shehbaz Sharif</a>, saw a deal on loss and damage emerge as one of the main tests for success at this summit. </p>
<p>Yet rather than the hoped-for action, the negotiations seem more likely to reach a dead-end discussion. In a draft text setting out possible “elements” of a decision on loss and damage released on Monday in Egypt, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-15/cop27-president-pushes-for-deal-on-divisive-loss-and-damage?leadSource=uverify%20wall">two “options” were on the table</a>: establishing a loss and damage fund by late 2024, or two years of technical work on whether the issue should ultimately be addressed through a <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Co-facilitators_Elements_paper_COP_8f_CMA8f_0.pdf">“mosaic”</a> of funding arrangements. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1591001523370315776"}"></div></p>
<p>The first option would be difficult for developed countries to accept. The <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/some-countries-have-resisted-15c-goal-cop27-text-us-says-2022-11-12/">United States</a> and <a href="https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/11/04/cop27-despite-growing-calls-the-eu-intends-to-oppose-separate-fund-for-climate-reparations">European Union</a> have indicated they’re opposed to any language on “reparations”, which might suggest they bear liability and must compensate for the damage caused by past emissions.</p>
<p>Within Europe, one of the biggest opponents on this <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/15/fear-of-backsliding-on-glasgow-pledges-dominates-cop27">seems to be Sweden</a>, land of climate activist Greta Thunberg, which is putting the brakes on broader action.</p>
<p>With Sweden’s controversial Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson recently elected, the country’s environment minister queried the need for a loss and damage fund (earning <a href="https://twitter.com/GretaThunberg/status/1592468358058102784?s=20&t=EfDCVTv2N5bS5rp6NhelQg">Thunburg’s ire</a> on Twitter).</p>
<p>Likewise, major emerging economy emitters, China and India, are resisting calls from the US and some climate-vulnerable nations such as Mauritius to also contribute money to a loss and damage fund. China and India argue that the first to take on this responsibility should be the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-which-countries-are-historically-responsible-for-climate-change/">biggest historical and per capita emitters</a> in the developed world.</p>
<p>We haven’t yet heard any Australian commitments on loss and damage funding or new commitments on climate finance more generally. </p>
<p>But energy minister Chris Bowen is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/16/chris-bowen-takes-leadership-role-in-cop27-talks-as-john-kerry-praises-australias-climate-u-turn">now on the ground in Egypt</a> and leading, with India, the broader negotiations on climate finance for energy transition and adaptation. So Australia is at least regarded as playing a more constructive role, compared to past COPs.</p>
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<p>There were hopes for the German-led <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/14/climate-disaster-aid-scheme-global-shield-launched-at-cop27">Global Shield announcement</a>, which would give vulnerable countries funding for insurance and disaster protection support. </p>
<p>But this received <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/14/climate-disaster-aid-scheme-global-shield-launched-at-cop27">strong push back</a> from some vulnerable countries including Barbados and others in the <a href="https://www.aosis.org/about/member-states/">Alliance of Small Island States</a>, who questioned the effectiveness of the Global Shield as an insurance mechanism. Climate activist Mohamed Adow of Powershift Africa <a href="http://www.environewsnigeria.com/ghana-senegal-among-first-to-receive-g7-global-shield-climate-funding-as-activists-react/">noted</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We can’t insure our way to climate protection. After all, climate change is getting so bad some communities will likely be uninsurable unless we see much more drastic emissions cuts.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The G77 – a group of more than 130 developing nations – together with China, have put forward <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/climate-un-idAFKBN2S513D">a draft proposal</a> for a loss and damage fund. Their proposal would see finance provided to countries hit by climate disasters, and would be set up before the next COP in Dubai in 2023. Some developed countries, however, want to move slower than the G77’s timeline. </p>
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<h2>Disappointment and bitterness</h2>
<p>As calls for loss and damage finance continue, there will be a lot of disappointment and bitterness if nothing substantial comes out of Egypt. </p>
<p>Progress on loss and damage is regarded as the <a href="https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/press-encounter/2022-10-03/secretary-generals-press-encounter-pre-cop27">litmus test</a> for COP27’s success by many climate-vulnerable nations. But if nothing eventuates, other options are being explored. </p>
<p>For example, Vanuatu is spearheading a campaign to get UN General Assembly support for putting an <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-a-chain-of-tiny-pacific-islands-wants-an-international-court-opinion-on-responsibility-for-the-climate-crisis-193595">Advisory Opinion request</a>. This could generate an authoritative statement by the International Court of Justice about who takes responsibility for climate damage. </p>
<p>It might break any stalemate in negotiations on a loss and damage fund, or lead to further litigation asking high-emitting rich countries to pay compensation for loss and damage. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-the-big-issue-of-cop27-climate-summit-poor-nations-face-a-1trillion-loss-and-damage-bill-but-rich-nations-wont-pay-up-194043">It’s the big issue of COP27 climate summit: poor nations face a $1 trillion ‘loss and damage’ bill, but rich nations won’t pay up</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>UN climate conferences are always a rollercoaster ride with negotiations down to the wire and possibilities for twists and surprise endings. </p>
<p>Although the prospects for agreement on loss and damage finance at this COP seem remote at this point, it may not be the end of the story. And while the urgency of dealing with the unfairly distributed costs of climate disasters is only growing, at the very least this COP has started the conversation on solutions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194719/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jacqueline Peel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When it comes to loss and damage, COP27 negotiations seem likely to reach a dead end. But as we enter the final days of the summit, anything can happen.Jacqueline Peel, Director, Melbourne Climate Futures, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1944732022-11-15T17:18:09Z2022-11-15T17:18:09ZAfrica has vast gas reserves – here’s how to stop them adding to climate change<p>The question of whether Africa should be allowed to exploit its gas reserves, <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1197585/natural-gas-reserves-in-africa-by-main-countries/">estimated</a> at more than 17.56 trillion cubic meters (620 trillion cubic feet) in 2021, has been much discussed at the latest UN climate change summit, COP27, in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. </p>
<p>Former US vice president Al Gore <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLTcC7srnLw">used his speech</a> at the opening session to urge an end to all fossil fuel investment globally, including in Africa. But Macky Sall, the president of Senegal and chairperson of the African Union, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rT-FNhK8BLc">argued</a> at the same event that Africa needs space in Earth’s dwindling carbon budget to use its resources for development.</p>
<p>The gas debate centres on two arguments, either for gas or against it. This is too narrow and fails to consider what development might look like for Africa and other regions that are struggling to grow their economies and address widespread poverty while also taking ambitious climate action. It also neglects the question of what kind of international cooperation might be necessary to make climate-compatible development possible.</p>
<p>Those who argue against expanding fossil gas extraction say that exploiting Africa’s reserves is incompatible with keeping average global temperature rise below 1.5°C, the “safe” limit agreed in Paris in 2015. Renewable energy is now the cheapest way to connect millions of people to power networks in countries where energy poverty is rife, they say. </p>
<p>It has also been suggested that widespread poverty in oil-rich countries such as Nigeria demonstrates how decades of oil and gas exploration have only benefited multinational corporations such as <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/germany-italy-misguided-investment-in-african-fossil-fuels-by-mohamed-adow-2022-07">Shell</a> and left few gains for most Africans. Investing in oil and gas now, it’s argued, will leave African countries holding stranded assets as Europe and North America pivot to wind, solar and other renewables.</p>
<p>Those in favour of exploiting Africa’s gas argue that industrialisation – for example, the building of modern transportation systems, hospitals and schools which developed countries enjoy – has relied on burning fossil fuels. Industrialised countries still consume a lot of gas. Germany, for instance, uses the fossil fuel to generate up to 30% of its <a href="https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-energy-consumption-and-power-mix-charts">power</a>.</p>
<p>Natural gas, it is held, could provide enough energy for industrial processes such as steel, cement, paper and pulp manufacturing which renewables such as solar and wind have <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/05/06/the-reason-renewables-cant-power-modern-civilization-is-because-they-were-never-meant-to/?sh=4ed533daea2b">yet to provide</a>.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8245630/">study</a> published in 2021 found that a lack of finance, or the high cost of accessing it, imposes a huge gap between the theoretical and actual cost of generating renewable energy in Africa. And, if African countries are able to diversify their energy portfolio with gas it will, it is argued, increase energy resilience and strengthen the right of African countries to make their own decisions on energy generation, distribution and consumption in a way that they deem appropriate.</p>
<p>Proponents of gas point out that, historically, Africa has contributed the least to climate change, accounting for <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/contributed-most-global-co2">less than 4%</a> of the total stock of CO₂ in the atmosphere. If the whole of Sub-Saharan Africa tripled its electricity consumption from gas it would only <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/12-reasons-gas-africas-renewable-energy-future/">add 1%</a> to global CO₂ emissions. In comparison, the US has released more than 509 gigatonnes of CO₂ <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/contributed-most-global-co2">since 1850</a> and is responsible for 25% of the global total.</p>
<p>On this basis, it is <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/564715-climate-change-western-countries-are-hypocrites-cant-dictate-to-africa-buhari.html">argued</a> that developed countries are enacting a renewed form of colonialism – what some might call climate colonialism. This is because countries that developed using fossil fuels and continue to appropriate a disproportionate amount of the remaining carbon space in the atmosphere are seeking to stop Africans from using their abundant reserves of gas to address energy poverty challenges and fast track their development. </p>
<h2>Striking a balance</h2>
<p>The narrow view of either “no to gas” or “yes to gas” in Africa is largely unhelpful in framing the continent’s climate, energy and development challenges. What Africa urgently needs is a credible plan for oil-dependent economies to avoid the need to transition to gas in the long run. That must include technical and financial support to scale up renewables in all countries, so they can build self-reliant, prosperous economies.</p>
<p>Neither gas nor renewable energy on their own can do much to help Africa when so many countries <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/1976ebc6-f366-42eb-ab18-e9c267d9abd6">depend</a> on foreign technology and investment to grow their economies. The crucial question for Africa at COP27 should be: what is the right package of assistance needed to expand modern and affordable energy, develop a competitive advantage in manufacturing renewable technologies and better manage resources in a climate-constrained world?</p>
<p>Many African countries such as Ghana and the Gambia already have ambitious climate targets, but these are conditional on the receipt of international support which is not forthcoming. Despite being an oil-dependent economy, Nigeria has a pledge to be carbon neutral by 2060. The cost of implementing this strategy is valued <a href="https://energytransition.gov.ng/">at US$1.9 trillion</a> (£1.59 trillion). In spite of high-level diplomacy by the vice president, Yemi Osinbajo, Nigeria has only managed to receive a promise of a one-off payment of <a href="https://guardian.ng/news/world-bank-us-pledge-3billion-as-nigeria-launches-transition-plan-for-climate-change-others/">US$3 billion</a> from the World Bank – but when this is supposed to be delivered has not been confirmed.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A ground-mounted solar farm surrounded by trees and houses." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495353/original/file-20221115-23-6rimv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495353/original/file-20221115-23-6rimv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495353/original/file-20221115-23-6rimv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495353/original/file-20221115-23-6rimv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495353/original/file-20221115-23-6rimv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495353/original/file-20221115-23-6rimv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495353/original/file-20221115-23-6rimv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">African nations need funding and expertise to exploit their renewable energy advantages.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/ground-mounted-solar-power-plants-africa-785799979">Sebastian Noethlichs/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The US thinktank Climate Policy Initiative has suggested that Africa needs an inflow of about <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/press-release/new-study-finds-that-climate-finance-for-africa-needs-to-grow-9x-from-usd-30-billion-to-usd-277-billion-to-meet-2030-climate-goal/#:%7E:text=CPI%2520estimates%2520that%2520Africa%2520requires,gap%2520is%2520likely%2520even%2520greater.">US$277 billion annually</a> to implement the plans contained in each country’s emissions reduction pledge. But the continent currently only receives something in the region of about <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/press-release/new-study-finds-that-climate-finance-for-africa-needs-to-grow-9x-from-usd-30-billion-to-usd-277-billion-to-meet-2030-climate-goal/#:%7E:text=CPI%2520estimates%2520that%2520Africa%2520requires,gap%2520is%2520likely%2520even%2520greater.">US$30 billion a year</a>. </p>
<p>Africa could be world-leading in renewable energy generation if provided with the right technology and financial assistance. The continent has big advantages when it comes to renewable energy generation – ranging from solar, hydroelectricity, wind and geothermal energy. The International Energy Agency says Africa has 1% of the world’s total installed solar power capacity, despite the fact that, it has <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/africa-energy-outlook-2022/key-findings">60%</a> of the world’s most promising areas to generate solar energy.</p>
<p>Calls to cease all gas exploration in Africa that fail to account for where historical responsibility for climate change lies and the need to close the current finance gap are the most audacious kind of climate imperialism. COP27 must unlock trillions of dollars in large-scale renewable energy investments and generate new economic opportunities for Africa – or it will have failed.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194473/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chukwumerije Okereke receives funding from the UK Economic and Social Sciences Research Council and European Climate Foundation. He is affiliated with Alex Ekwueme Federal University Ndufu-Alike Nigeria, University of Oxford, UK, Society for Planet and Prosperity (SPP), Nigeria and Oxford Brookes University, UK. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Youba Sokona does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Developed nations threaten to consume more than their fair share of Earth’s dwindling carbon budget.Chukwumerije Okereke, Professor of Environment and Development, University of ReadingYouba Sokona, Vice-président du GIEC et professeur honoraire, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1943752022-11-15T13:03:34Z2022-11-15T13:03:34ZGlobal climate finance leaves out cities: fixing it is critical to battling climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495046/original/file-20221114-13-mwyi82.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">African continent is urbanising very fast and among the most vulnerable geographies to climatic change</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GettyImages</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Under the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a>, which came into force in 2016, countries agreed to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and work together to adapt to the effects of climate change. To act on this, and codify their individual commitments, each country submitted its so-called <a href="https://unfccc.int/ndc-information/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs#:%7E:text=Nationally%20determined%20contributions%20(NDCs)%20are,the%20impacts%20of%20climate%20change">Nationally Determined Contribution</a>. </p>
<p>These clearly spell out the climate actions they intend to undertake to limit global warming to below 2°C, compared to pre-industrial levels. The first contributions were officially submitted in 2020. They are meant to be updated every five years.</p>
<p>Based on the cost estimates from the <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Climate-Finance-Needs-of-African-Countries-1.pdf">51 African countries</a> that submitted their plans in 2020, the financial burden of achieving their contributions is about US$2.8 trillion between now and 2030. The same African governments have cumulatively pledged to contribute about US$264 billion of this from their own national coffers. This means the missing gap is still US$2.5 trillion. </p>
<p>Where is this going to come from?</p>
<p>Part of the answer is <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/introduction-to-climate-finance?gclid=CjwKCAiAvK2bBhB8EiwAZUbP1HlPbQOJ59F1nPYQNAGoeSQDu0DGp5OI0Ywv91JcIJHt0foQ5Q5l5xoCPOgQAvD_BwE">climate finance</a>. This is being discussed as part of the Paris Agreement negotiations, and is a key theme of the <a href="https://cop27.eg/#/">COP27 conference</a> in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.</p>
<p>This finance can come from a variety of sources – public, private, or other. But it is specifically earmarked for activities and investments linked to mitigating or adapting to the effects of climate change.</p>
<p>The current architecture of the institutions and funds that provide climate finance is, however, not designed to work at a sub-national level. Therefore across the globe, cities are being left out. This situation is even more pertinent for African cities as Africa is both the fastest urbanising continent in the world and among the most vulnerable to climatic change. Yet the continent is receiving, by far, the lowest climate finance flows overall. </p>
<h2>Africa is losing out, its cities even more</h2>
<p>Estimates put global climate finance flows for 2019 <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/global-landscape-of-climate-finance-2019/">at US$622 billion</a>. This is significantly below global needs. And the lowest proportion of these flows, an estimated <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/global-landscape-of-climate-finance-2019/">3%, is coming to the African continent</a>. </p>
<p>By comparison, 43.6% is directed at <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/global-landscape-of-climate-finance-2019/">East Asia and the Pacific</a>. Yet Africa is <a href="https://comssa.org/en/news/climate-finance-in-africa-challenges-and-opportunities">contributing least to the global greenhouse gas emissions</a>. And it’s the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change overall.</p>
<p>This meagre proportion is even more concentrated within the continent. It’s estimated that <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Landscape-of-Climate-Finance-in-Africa.pdf">40% of climate finance went has gone to just five countries</a>. They are Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Kenya. </p>
<p>Cities are receiving only a trickle of this money. The reason is that the global climate finance architecture is biased towards national and regional institutions. This prevents cities from accessing it easily.</p>
<p>For example, 2019 data from Africa shows that the largest source of climate finance was multilateral development finance institutions. They accounted for about <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Landscape-of-Climate-Finance-in-Africa.pdf">US$11.5 billion of climate finance flows</a>. But these institutions are mostly mandated to work at a national level. They can’t lend directly to cities. </p>
<p>It’s the same for dedicated multilateral climate funds, such as the <a href="https://www.greenclimate.fund/">Green Climate Fund</a>. The fund is the largest dedicated source of climate finance. But most of the entities accredited to it are <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/SCF%20Forum%202019%20report_final.pdf">either national, regional or international</a>. </p>
<p>On top of this, the fund has no mechanism to lend directly to sub-national entities.</p>
<p>The second constraint for cities has to do with the fact that climate finance is dominated by loans. For Africa, loans made up <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Landscape-of-Climate-Finance-in-Africa.pdf">about 57% of the overall financial flows</a> in 2019. Yet across Africa <a href="https://www.uncdf.org/article/7589/local-government-finance-is-development-finance">most cities cannot access loans</a>, because of legislative constraints and low creditworthiness. </p>
<p>Loans are primarily directed at activities that can generate a return. This means funding is strongly biased towards mitigation activities as these tend to generate better returns than those for adaptation. As such, financing for mitigation makes up <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Landscape-of-Climate-Finance-in-Africa.pdf">around two-thirds of total flows</a>.</p>
<p>Loans also are likely to exclude funding many of the public services and infrastructures that cities are required to provide. These may not generate the economic returns needed to attract this form of finance.</p>
<p>Finally, sectorally, only about <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Landscape-of-Climate-Finance-in-Africa.pdf">4.5% of total climate finance flows in Africa in 2019</a> went to addressing the large and growing infrastructure deficit. </p>
<p>This is particularly concerning for rapidly growing African cities as current cities need retrofitting. And <a href="https://academic.oup.com/oxrep/article-abstract/33/3/405/3926157">two-thirds of Africa’s cities are yet to be built</a> between now and 2050. In addition, infrastructure will need to be built in a way that ensures it’s resilient to the effects of the climate change. </p>
<p>The upfront investment for this may be slightly more expensive, by some estimates, <a href="https://urbantransitions.global/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/FinancingAfricaUrbanOpportunity-FINAL-REPORT.pdf">approximately 3% of total construction costs</a>. But future benefits could be <a href="https://urbantransitions.global/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/FinancingAfricaUrbanOpportunity-FINAL-REPORT.pdf">up to four times larger</a> than these costs of investment. </p>
<h2>The future</h2>
<p>Cities are the frontline of tackling some of the most severe effects of climate change. They are also at the forefront of achieving a low emissions and climate resilient future. Globally, cities account for approximately <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/cutting-global-carbon-emissions-where-do-cities-stand#:%7E:text=Cities%20account%20for%20over%2070,constructed%20with%20carbon%2Dintensive%20materials.">70% of carbon emissions</a>.</p>
<p>The hopes are high that COP27 – given that it’s being held in Africa – can deliver actions to tackle the climate emergencies that are critical to the African continent. This will necessarily include increasing the overall climate finance flows.</p>
<p>However, merely increasing the financing available will not be sufficient. The financing must find its way to cities.</p>
<p>Some solutions include ensuring the multilateral development banks and climate funds can develop dedicated local financing mechanisms that allow them to directly meet the needs of cities. </p>
<p>At national levels governments will also need to do more work to ensure both that their Nationally Determined Contributions directly reflect urban priorities and that these receive the dedicated attention and financing required. </p>
<p>At a city level, cities need to urgently work on improving their creditworthiness so that when legislation permits, they are in a financial position to take on loans in particular.</p>
<p>As former United Nations secretary general <a href="https://press.un.org/en/2012/sgsm14249.doc.htm">Ban Ki-moon famously said</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Our struggle for global sustainability will be won or lost in cities.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>That’s why it’s so important to start making sure there is enough money to support this struggle.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194375/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Astrid R.N. Haas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cities, which account for 70% of emissions globally, should be at the frontline of tackling some of the most severe effects of climate change.Astrid R.N. Haas, Fellow, Infrastructure Institute, School of Cities, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1945592022-11-14T17:31:12Z2022-11-14T17:31:12ZWhy COP27 should be the last of these pointless corporate love-ins<p>It’s a glorious afternoon at a luxury resort in Egypt, with six swimming pools leading to a lovely little stretch of beach on the Red Sea. A salsa aquatic class in one of the pools has several enthusiastic participants. Elsewhere, guests are lounging on deck chairs sipping ice cold cocktails. Cheerful waiters are refilling glasses and serving snacks. </p>
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<p><em>You can listen to more articles from The Conversation, narrated by Noa, <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/audio-narrated-99682">here</a>.</em></p>
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<p>Welcome to Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt’s popular resort and host to the 27th meeting of the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, or COP27. Or, as some critics would put it, the <a href="https://www.cadtm.org/Glasgow-s-Conference-of-the-Polluters-again-confirms-that-global-arson-needs">Conference of the Polluters</a>. </p>
<p>My first impression on arriving was that I had entered a gigantic theme park. The roads leading to the resorts were lined with brilliantly lit palm trees in green and yellow, and lamp posts draped in dazzling coloured lights. The night sky was criss-crossed with bright searchlights from the venue to draw attention to the climate emergency facing humanity. </p>
<p>This is my fourth COP, and I don’t intend to come again. Given how little these conferences have achieved since they began in 1995 – not to mention their gigantic carbon footprints – I am convinced it’s time for them to stop. </p>
<p>After 27 years of negotiations, conflicts and breakdowns, the world’s nations have basically agreed: (1) climate change is a serious problem; (2) something must be done to fix it; (3) rich nations should do more; and (4) based on the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris agreement of 2015</a>, every country should set their own emissions goals and do their best to meet them. </p>
<p><a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement#:%7E:text=The%20Paris%20Agreement%20is%20a,compared%20to%20pre%2Dindustrial%20levels.">The UN claims</a> that the Paris agreement is “legally binding”, but there are no enforcement mechanisms or penalties for countries in breach. Even current pledges <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/10/1129912">will not be enough</a> to meet the target to restrict global warming to the 1.5°C target agreed in Paris.</p>
<h2>How COP works</h2>
<p>There are three worlds that inhabit COP meetings but carefully evade each other. Official country delegates attend meetings and draft policies. Then there are the corporates and industry associations, who are by far the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0170840612464609">most significant and powerful</a> presence here. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-63571610">Over 600</a> fossil-fuel industry lobbyists are attending. This is more than the combined delegations from the ten most climate-impacted countries, and the second largest delegation after the United Arab Emirates, itself a petroleum power. Among those 600 lobbyists, some have even been invited as part of 30 country delegations. </p>
<p>The third group at COP consists of civil society organisations from a wide range of countries, but dominated by non-governmental organisations (NGOs) from developed countries. Growing numbers of NGOs representing the interests of business and industry (BINGOs) occupy the civil society space in COP meetings to promote particular resource and energy use agendas. Funders include major oil corporations like Shell and Exxon, nuclear giants like Areva, and big miners like Rio Tinto and BHP. </p>
<p>Business and civil society delegates both participate in climate negotiations and host side events showcasing their climate actions. These can seem to take place in parallel realities. Directly after one session organised by international NGO Global Witness about the killings and disappearances of protesters against mining projects in Africa, Asia and Latin America was a session on “mining governance for a just energy transition”. </p>
<p>In this latter session participants from the Democratic Republic of Congo government and the <a href="https://www.icmm.com/en-gb/our-story/who-we-are">International Council for Mining and Metals</a> described inequalities, environmental impacts, tax avoidance and corruption as challenges facing mining in Africa. There was no mention of the violence and killings documented in the same region in the previous session. </p>
<h2>The police presence</h2>
<p>These opposing narratives are a feature of COP, but only become visible during protest marches. Notably, however, COP27 is the first to be held in a “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/18/greenwashing-police-state-egypt-cop27-masquerade-naomi-klein-climate-crisis">police state</a>”. Before getting to the venue, I spent a few days in Cairo at a hotel near Tahrir Square, home of the 2011 revolution. The square had heavily armed police in armoured vehicles at every corner. I photographed the obelisk in the square with an armoured police vehicle in the foreground and was immediately reprimanded by an angry soldier. </p>
<p>There are remarkably <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/12/cop27-first-week-roundup-powerful-dispatches-muted-protest-little-cash">few police</a> at the venue in Sharm el-Sheikh, however. This is because of the <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/11/06/egypt-arrests-curbs-protests-cop27-nears">extraordinary lengths</a> taken by the organisers to prevent protests. </p>
<p>This has included pre-emptive arrests of local activists, a complicated registration process restricting the wider public to a “green zone”, and unprecedented surveillance including police-monitored cameras in all Sharm el-Sheikh taxis. There is also a “designated area” for protesters away from the venue to avoid the kind of mass protests that have hampered previous COP meetings. </p>
<p>Staging COP in a luxury resort has also priced out activists. Hotel rates average US$250 to US$300 (£213 to £255) a night and there are no “budget” options. A sandwich at the venue cost US$15, though this was halved after complaints. There are also no streets where people can gather, just roads linking the various resorts. </p>
<p>So while over <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/11/cop26-police-tactics-creating-atmosphere-of-fear-protesters-say">100,000 people marched</a> the streets of Glasgow at COP26, and previous COPs like <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/dec/12/hundreds-arrested-copenhagen-protest-rally">Copenhagen</a>, <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2011-12-04-cop17-protesters-to-lay-charges-after-march-attack/">Durban</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-34959192">Paris</a> also saw clashes between protesters and police, dissent is effectively neutralised here. <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/11/12/not-yet-defeated-1000-march-climate-justice-cop27">Over 1,000 protesters</a> marched inside the venue on November 12, and I couldn’t even find them. </p>
<h2>COP and petroleum</h2>
<p>So what else has changed since I first came to a COP in Durban in 2011? Notably, the marketing of both corporates and NGOs is much slicker. And corporates have become much smarter – I can’t see a BP or Shell or Exxon-Mobil logo anywhere. The corporatisation of COP is complete when BP’s chief executive and four other senior employees are in the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-63584993">official delegation of Mauritania</a>, a country where BP has major investments. </p>
<p>To further consolidate the power of the fossil fuel industry, COP27 has a “Middle East Green Initiative” led by Saudi Arabia with the inevitable net zero pledge by 2050. Saudi also has one of the largest booths inside the conference venue. And it is no accident that the next COP will be hosted by the United Arab Emirates. </p>
<p>In 27 years of COP meetings there has not been a single call to phase out fossil fuels. The only reference was the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/cop26">agreement at COP26</a> which called for “the phasedown of
unabated coal power and phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies”. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/11/gas-producers-using-cop27-to-rebrand-gas-as-transitional-fuel-experts-warn?CMP=share_btn_tw">massive rebranding exercise</a> is underway at COP27 where natural gas is being positioned not as a fossil fuel but as a “transition fuel”. Once this reframing is complete, the major fossil fuel players will corner all subsidies for natural gas.</p>
<h2>COP’s great failure</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/276629/global-co2-emissions/">In 1995</a>, when COP1 was convened in Berlin, global carbon emissions were 23.45 billion metric tons. By 2021 they were 36.4 billion metric tons. Emissions have increased every year with two exceptions: the 2007-09 financial crisis and during COVID-19. In both cases this was because of economic contraction, not efforts to tackle climate change. </p>
<p>No one at COP will speak of this particular elephant in the room: that it <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1350508420973629">may well be impossible</a> to decouple economic growth from carbon emissions. Emissions rebounded on both occasions and are expected to reach their <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/co2-is-on-track-to-hit-a-record-high-in-2022-and-shows-no-signs-of-going-down">highest recorded level</a> in 2022. </p>
<p>Let’s look at three other quantifiable COP measures: climate finance, which is seen as key to helping poor countries <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/climate-finance/the-big-picture/introduction-to-climate-finance/introduction-to-climate-finance">to reduce emissions</a>; <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/adaptation-and-resilience/workstreams/approaches-to-address-loss-and-damage-associated-with-climate-change-impacts-in-developing-countries">climate reparations</a> from rich to poor countries for damage caused by <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-how-responsible-are-industrialised-countries-for-climate-change-193965">historical carbon emissions</a>; and the success of technologies to mitigate emissions, particularly carbon capture and storage. </p>
<p>On climate finance, wealthier nations committed at Copenhagen 2009 to mobilise <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/climate-finance/the-big-picture/climate-finance-in-the-negotiations">US$100 billion per year</a> for <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/climate-finance/the-big-picture/introduction-to-climate-finance/introduction-to-climate-finance">poorer countries</a>. However, they have <a href="https://www.oecd.org/climate-change/finance-usd-100-billion-goal/">never achieved</a> this goal. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the 60 largest banks in the world <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/24/how-much-the-largest-banks-have-invested-in-fossil-fuel-report.html">have invested US$3.8 trillion</a> in fossil fuels since the Paris agreement. In December 2019 investors paid nearly US$26 billion for Saudi state oil company Aramco’s initial public offering. Of course, both fossil fuel companies and banks involved have pledged fictional net zero commitments for 2050. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/its-the-big-issue-of-cop27-climate-summit-poor-nations-face-a-1trillion-loss-and-damage-bill-but-rich-nations-wont-pay-up-194043">Climate reparations</a> are on the official agenda at COP27 for the first time, which is certainly a <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-three-reasons-rich-countries-can-no-longer-ignore-calls-to-pay-developing-world-for-climate-havoc-193873">step forward</a>. It’s hard to be optimistic, however. The US will vigorously challenge creating any loss and damage fund for poor countries, as it has <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fearing-liability-u-s-resists-u-n-fund-for-climate-damages/">consistently done</a> at past COPs. </p>
<p>As for carbon capture, it <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/new-global-ccs-report-shows-up-silliness-of-clean-coal-predictions-in-news-corp-81413/">only stored 0.02%</a> of fossil-fuel CO₂ in 2021. That makes a mockery of this cornerstone of climate change mitigation. </p>
<h2>Alternatives</h2>
<p>COP represents a gathering of elites. A <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/full/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011104">recent study</a> found that this was a major obstacle to climate mitigation. Excluded are the poor, disenfranchised, and those who bear the brunt of climate impacts but contributed least to the problem (and will bear the impact of rich nations’ energy transitions because the necessary minerals and metals will be extracted from their lands). Increasingly dissent is <a href="https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2013/05/14/pers-m14.html">becoming criminalised</a>, not only in “police states” but in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/24/keir-starmer-backs-stiff-sentences-for-climate-protesters-who-block-roads">western liberal democracies too</a>. </p>
<p>It is time to end this spectacle of private jets flying in dignitaries and delegates to discuss the climate emergency. Genuine civil society organisations should boycott future COPs and focus on direct action at national and local levels. They need to make their governments accountable for emissions targets, and target fossil fuel corporations and the banks that finance them. </p>
<p>There is no accountability in COP, only a diffusion of (ir)responsibility that legitimises corporate power. COP27 will go the way of previous COPs: empty promises, stirring speeches and slick corporate campaigns. And higher carbon emissions next year.</p>
<p>So let COP become another Davos, a conference of and for the rich. There are plenty of luxury seaside and ski resorts in countries eager to host the next few COPs. Just don’t go there.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194559/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bobby Banerjee has received funding in the past from the Australian Research Council. He is attending COP27 as a delegate for Western Sydney University, Australia, which is his former employer and still retains him as an adjunct professor. </span></em></p>A look back at what the COPs have actually achieved.Bobby Banerjee, Professor of Management, City, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1943452022-11-14T07:42:14Z2022-11-14T07:42:14Z4 signs of progress at the UN climate change summit<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494986/original/file-20221114-29604-dwm11g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C24%2C8155%2C5432&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Developing countries are calling for more funding and for changes at the World Bank.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/activists-demanding-climate-finance-and-debt-relief-for-news-photo/1440171310">Sean Gallup/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/cuatro-senales-de-progreso-en-la-cumbre-de-la-onu-sobre-el-cambio-climatico-194661">Leer in español</a></em></p>
<p>Something significant is happening in the desert in Egypt as countries <a href="https://unfccc.int/cop27">meet at COP27</a>, the United Nations summit on climate change.</p>
<p>Despite frustrating sclerosis in the negotiating halls, the pathway forward for ramping up climate finance to help low-income countries adapt to climate change and transition to clean energy is becoming clearer.</p>
<p>I spent a large part of <a href="https://fletcher.tufts.edu/people/staff/rachel-kyte">my career</a> working on international finance at the World Bank and the United Nations and now advise public development and private funds and teach climate diplomacy focusing on finance. Climate finance has been one of the thorniest issues in global climate negotiations for decades, but I’m seeing four promising signs of progress at COP27.</p>
<h2>Getting to net zero – without greenwashing</h2>
<p>First, the goal – getting the world to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 to stop global warming – is clearer.</p>
<p>The last climate conference, COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland, nearly fell apart over frustration that international finance wasn’t flowing to developing countries and that corporations and financial institutions were greenwashing – making claims they couldn’t back up. One year on, something is stirring.</p>
<p>In 2021, the financial sector arrived at COP26 in full force for the first time. Private banks, insurers and institutional investors <a href="https://www.gfanzero.com/press/amount-of-finance-committed-to-achieving-1-5c-now-at-scale-needed-to-deliver-the-transition/">representing US$130 trillion</a> said they would align their investments with the goal of keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius – a pledge to net zero. That would increase funding for green growth and clean energy transitions, and reduce investments in fossil fuels. It was an apparent breakthrough. But many observers cried foul and <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org/aotearoa/press-release/offsets-taskforce-hit-by-protest-at-cop26/">accused the financial institutions of greenwashing</a>.</p>
<p>In the year since then, a U.N. commission has <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/high-level-expert-group">put a red line around greenwashing</a>, delineating what a company or institution must do to make a credible claim about its net-zero goals. Its checklist isn’t mandatory, but it sets a high bar based on science and will help hold companies and investors to account.</p>
<h2>Reforming international financial institutions</h2>
<p>Second, how international financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund and World Bank are working is getting much-needed attention.</p>
<p>Over the past 12 months, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/09/climate/david-malpass-world-bank-cop27-climate-change.html">frustration has grown</a> with the international financial system, especially with the World Bank Group’s leadership. Low-income countries have long complained about having to borrow to finance resilience to climate impacts they didn’t cause, and they have called for development banks to take more risk and leverage more private investment for much-needed projects, including expanding renewable energy.</p>
<p>That frustration has culminated in pressure for World Bank President David Malpass to step down. Malpass, nominated by the Trump administration in 2019, has <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/23/world-bank-president-not-resigning-apologizes-for-climate-science-remarks-00058612">clung on for now</a>, but he is under pressure from the U.S., Europe and others to bring forward <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/world-bank-chief-says-will-keep-intense-focus-addressing-climate-change-2022-10-07/">a new road map</a> for the World Bank’s response to climate change this year.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Standing together in a meeting room, Mia Motley speaks and gestures while Ursula von der Leyen listens intently." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494962/original/file-20221113-24-3c3mzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494962/original/file-20221113-24-3c3mzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494962/original/file-20221113-24-3c3mzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494962/original/file-20221113-24-3c3mzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494962/original/file-20221113-24-3c3mzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494962/original/file-20221113-24-3c3mzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494962/original/file-20221113-24-3c3mzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mia Mottley, prime minister of Barbados and an advocate for international finance reform, speaks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the climate summit in November 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/mia-mottley-prime-minister-of-barbados-chats-with-president-news-photo/1439748312?phrase=mia%20mottley&adppopup=true">Sean Gallup/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley, a leading voice for reform, and others have called <a href="https://geopolitique.eu/en/articles/breaking-the-deadlock-on-climate-the-bridgetown-initiative/">for $1 trillion</a> already in the international financial system to be redirected to climate resilience projects to help vulnerable countries protect themselves from future climate disasters.</p>
<p>At COP27, French President Emmanuel Macron supported Mottley’s call for a shake-up in how international finance works, and together they have agreed to <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/11/cop27-un-climate-barbados-mottley-climate-finance-imf/">set up a group to suggest changes</a> at the next meeting of the IMF and World Bank governors in spring 2023.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, regional development banks have been reinventing themselves to better address their countries’ needs. The Inter-American Development Bank, focused on Latin America and the Caribbean, is considering shifting its business model to take more risk and crowd in more private sector investment. The Asian Development Bank has launched an entirely <a href="https://www.adb.org/news/adb-adopts-new-operating-model-meet-rapidly-changing-needs-asia-and-pacific">new operating model</a> designed to achieve greater climate results and leverage private financing more effectively.</p>
<h2>Getting private finance flowing</h2>
<p>Third, more public-private partnerships are being developed to speed decarbonization and power the clean energy transition.</p>
<p>The first of these “<a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_21_5768">Just Energy Transition Partnerships</a>,” announced in 2021, was designed to support South Africa’s transition away from coal power. It relies on a mix of grants, loans and investments, as well as risk sharing to help bring in more private sector finance. <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/11/15/indonesia-and-international-partners-secure-groundbreaking-climate-targets-and-associated-financing/">Indonesia announced a similar partnership</a> at the G-20 summit in November worth $20 billion. Vietnam is working on another, and Egypt <a href="https://enterprise.press/stories/2022/11/13/us-europe-pledge-more-than-usd-550-mn-to-fund-egypts-energy-transition-86885/">announced a major new partnership</a> at COP27.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Kerry gestures with one hand as he speaks with Scholz amid other seated people." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494939/original/file-20221112-18-n0vxt9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494939/original/file-20221112-18-n0vxt9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494939/original/file-20221112-18-n0vxt9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494939/original/file-20221112-18-n0vxt9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494939/original/file-20221112-18-n0vxt9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494939/original/file-20221112-18-n0vxt9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494939/original/file-20221112-18-n0vxt9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">U.S. Special Climate Envoy John Kerry, who proposed new carbon offsets to pay for clean energy, speaks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/november-2022-egypt-scharm-el-scheich-german-chancellor-news-photo/1244584482?phrase=un%20climate&adppopup=true">Michael Kappeler/picture alliance via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>However, the public funding has been hard to lock in. Developed countries’ coffers are dwindling, with governments including the U.S. unable or unwilling to maintain commitments. Now, pressure from the war in Ukraine and economic crises is adding to their problems.</p>
<p>The lack of public funds was the impetus behind U.S. Special Climate Envoy John Kerry’s proposal to use a <a href="https://climatechangenews.com/2022/11/09/john-kerrys-offsets-plan-sets-early-test-for-un-net-zero-standards/">new form of carbon offsets</a> to pay for green energy investments in countries transitioning from coal. The idea, loosely sketched out, is that countries dependent on coal could sell carbon credits to companies, with the revenue going to fund clean energy projects. The country would speed its exit from coal and lower its emissions, and the private company could then claim that reduction in its own accounting toward net zero emissions.</p>
<p>Globally, voluntary carbon markets for these offsets have grown from $300 million <a href="https://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/articles/the-art-of-integrity-state-of-the-voluntary-carbon-markets-q3-2022/">to $2 billion</a> since 2019, but they are still relatively small and fragile and need more robust rules.</p>
<p>Kerry’s proposal drew criticism, pending the fine print, for fear of swamping the market with industrial credits, collapsing prices and potentially allowing companies in the developed world to greenwash their own claims by retiring coal in the developing world.</p>
<h2>New rules to strengthen carbon markets</h2>
<p>Fourth, new rules are emerging to strengthen those voluntary carbon markets.</p>
<p>A new set of <a href="https://icvcm.org/">“high-integrity carbon credit principles”</a> is expected in 2023. A <a href="https://vcmintegrity.org/">code of conduct</a> for how corporations can use voluntary carbon markets to meet their net zero claims has already been issued, and standards for ensuring that a company’s plans meet the Paris Agreement’s goals are evolving.</p>
<p>Incredibly, all this progress is outside the Paris Agreement, which simply calls for governments to make “finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development.” </p>
<p>Negotiators seem reluctant to mention this widespread reform movement in the formal text being negotiated at COP27, but walking through the halls here, they cannot ignore it. It’s been too slow in coming, but change in the financial system is on the way.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated Nov. 15, 2022, with Indonesia’s climate finance deal announced.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194345/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel Kyte is co-chair of the Voluntary Markets Integrity Initiative and served in different roles at the World Bank Group from 2000 to 2015.</span></em></p>The biggest issues at COP27 involve financing for low-income countries hit hard by climate change. A former World Bank official describes some promising signs she’s starting to see.Rachel Kyte, Dean of the Fletcher School, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1941502022-11-10T13:47:39Z2022-11-10T13:47:39ZClimate finance for Africa: the key challenges and what needs to be done about them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494466/original/file-20221109-11074-evqs5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C12%2C8192%2C5444&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Activists demand compensation from rich countries at the COP27 climate conference.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by Sean Gallup/GettyImages</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate change is a significant threat to development across Africa. Important sectors, such as agriculture, health and water will feel a considerable adverse impact from 1.5⁰C-2⁰C of global warming, according to a <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap22_FINAL.pdf">report</a> by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).</p>
<p>In the agricultural sector, negative climate change impacts will be seen on crops, fisheries and livestock. Food production and food security will be threatened. <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap22_FINAL.pdf#page=20">Cereal crop losses</a> south of the Sahara could range from 2% for sorghum to 35% for wheat by 2050. Another <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X22001577">study</a> concludes that losses in millet production will be around 48% to 55% by the middle of the century.</p>
<p>For health, several studies, including the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap22_FINAL.pdf#page=23">IPPC report</a>, projecte that climate change will increase the burden of human diseases on the continent. <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2018EF001020">Lethal heat exposure</a> will affect hundreds of million people in many African cities. </p>
<p>Water availability for livestock and fisheries is also be at risk. More than 50% of commercially important freshwater fish species could go <a href="https://www.iucn.org/content/african-freshwater-species-threatened-livelihoods-stake">extinct</a>. The impact of climate hazards is growing at an alarming rate. For instance, flooding and drought accounted for <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap22_FINAL.pdf">80% and 16%</a> of observed impacts on human settlement over the past decade. Both <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/africa">climate hazards</a> have affected almost 340 million people across Africa. Flood deaths have risen; poverty is worse and education and health services have been hindered.</p>
<p>Given all these challenges, debate has been focused on climate risks, impact and increasing resilience of vulnerable groups. But the international community and bilateral organisations have mostly avoided questions around who should be responsible for addressing these issues.</p>
<p>My colleagues and I have <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921800916309119">highlighted</a> important points that are relevant to managing climate change risks in Africa. This study looked at what is preventing more useful responses to climate change in Africa. Finance is the key.</p>
<p>Global climate debate has failed to address loss and damages in developing countries, including countries in Africa. The IPCC report states that without global action, climate related impacts and risks could undermine Africa’s development.</p>
<p>Developed countries have a historical responsibility for global emissions but are <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ethics-and-international-affairs/article/globalizing-responsibility-for-climate-change/0BC5CC953CAA35FD4BD5838FB305895C">avoiding</a> their responsibility to the developing world. They have failed to fulfil their <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02846-3">US$100 billion promise of climate aid to developing countries by 2020</a>. The timeline to mobilise the funding has been extended until 2025. </p>
<p>But how realistic is this pledge?</p>
<h2>Challenges in getting and spending climate finance</h2>
<p>African countries face various challenges when it comes to global climate financing. </p>
<p>First is the distinction between mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation projects include sustainable transportation, renewable energy and energy efficient technologies. A few countries, like Morocco and South Africa, can receive fund from donors to implement projects like these. But the majority of African countries are left out due to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X17302620">weak institutional capacity</a>. </p>
<p>Adaptation projects across key sectors such as agriculture, environment, health and water are funded in many African countries. Yet these projects are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800916309119">underfunded, fragmented and poorly coordinated</a>. There remains a mismatch between mitigation and adaptation projects in Africa as funding is inaccessible for the latter. </p>
<p>The lack of a clear formula to distinguish between donors’ adaptation and mitigation funds has undermined the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X17302620">implementation of climate change projects in many African countries</a>. Donors such as the World Bank, Global Environment Facility and European countries prefer to fund mitigation projects rather than adaptation. Their <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800916309119">argument</a> for funding mitigation projects is that they are measurable and their success is visible. Yet the international community <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378021002296">believes</a> that adaptation should be given priority.</p>
<p>Furthermore, about 80% of <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap22_FINAL.pdf">funding for research</a> into climate issues affecting Africa goes to developed countries, especially the United States and Europe. Kenya and South Africa accounted for 2.3% and 2.2% respectively.</p>
<p>The unequal funding relation does not only affect research design and dissemination. It also reduces <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X17302620">African research capacity and local expertise</a> to implement research findings. </p>
<p>Many donor-funded capacity building programmes are one-off and isolated from national climate change programmes. This affects the ability of African countries to participate in climate change technology transfer projects. Where there are no enabling environments or institutional settings to foster regulation, technology providers will be reluctant to create <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X17302620">access to technology</a>.</p>
<h2>Five things African countries need</h2>
<p>Over the past three decades, several international climate change negotiations have been held around the world. They have yielded few results. And Africa continues to look for solutions to many of its climate change related problems. </p>
<p>Donors and the international community should pay attention to the following five points.</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Bilateral and multilateral agencies must align their climate change agenda with national development planning in terms of adaptation and mitigation activities.</p></li>
<li><p>Donors must ensure access to climate finance and also make money available for relevant climate change research that is led and disseminated by African researchers at the national and local level.</p></li>
<li><p>Climate change mitigation institutions must be established across the five regions in Africa. These should provide capacity that will enable individual governments to train experts, facilitate technology transfer and implement mitigation projects. Only with mitigation institutions can a new African carbon market initiative be effectively implemented.</p></li>
<li><p>National governments must increase investment in research and academic institutions.</p></li>
<li><p>National ministries and departments must coordinate policies on adaptation measures. An integrated adaptation framework is required to implement either Climate Resilient Debt Clauses or African Climate Risk Facility as part of overall adaptation strategies and measures to protect vulnerable groups against climate risks and impacts.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The success of COP27 will be largely determined by how Africa’s climate change problems are prioritised and negotiated, and the kind of feasible solutions that are provided. No single option such as adaptation is sufficient to tackle climate change in Africa. Both adaptation and mitigation measures must be encouraged through integrated responses that link with developmental objectives. These objectives are to eradicate poverty and to provide energy security, health security and food security, as well as fostering sustainable economic growth and prosperity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194150/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ademola Adenle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The lack of a clear formula to distinguish between donors’ adaptation and mitigation funds is hurting Africa’s climate response.Ademola Adenle, Visiting Professor of Sustainability Science, Technical University of DenmarkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1940432022-11-10T03:59:22Z2022-11-10T03:59:22ZIt’s the big issue of COP27 climate summit: poor nations face a $1 trillion ‘loss and damage’ bill, but rich nations won’t pay up<p>The costs of climate-related disasters are growing and the poorest countries are bearing the brunt of impacts, from the unprecedented <a href="https://theconversation.com/pakistan-floods-what-role-did-climate-change-play-189833">floods in Pakistan</a> to the expanding <a href="https://theconversation.com/famine-should-not-exist-in-2022-yet-somalia-faces-its-worst-yet-wealthy-countries-pay-your-dues-191952">famine in Somalia</a>. Natural disasters in 2022 alone cost the global economy an estimated <a href="https://www.aon.com/reinsurance/getmedia/08b0306f-790c-4f6a-8c0e-883e91ceba04/20221410-if-q3-2022-global-cat-recap.pdf">US$227 billion</a>. </p>
<p>Such disasters are driving calls at the COP27 climate summit this week for rich countries to pay for the “loss and damage” poorer countries have suffered (and continue to) because of climate change. </p>
<p>Loss and damage finance would help developing countries recover from climate change fuelled disasters and economic losses, and could extend to non-economic losses such as cultural destruction, displacement and health impacts. But this type of funding has long been a sticking point at global climate change negotiations. </p>
<p>As Mian Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif, prime minister of flood-devastated Pakistan, <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20221108-world-burning-up-faster-than-it-can-recover-pakistan-pm">pleaded</a> this week: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>How on earth can one expect from us that we will undertake this gigantic task on our own?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>A few nations have made loss and damage <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/cop27-which-countries-have-offered-loss-damage-funds-2022-11-08/">pledges</a> so far at COP27, but the money presently on the table is only a drop in the ocean compared to what’s actually required. By 2050 the economic cost of loss and damage in developing countries is estimated to be between <a href="https://us.boell.org/en/unpacking-finance-loss-and-damage">US$1-1.8 trillion</a>. </p>
<p>So why is loss and damage such a hot issue? And why is it only now that developed countries are beginning to talk about it? </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1589987859343478786"}"></div></p>
<h2>Money on the table</h2>
<p>Loss and damage is a new aspect of “climate finance” – money from developed countries to help developing countries cut their emissions and adapt to a changed climate. In 2009, developed countries promised to mobilise $100 billion per year of climate finance by 2020. This target <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02846-3">remains unmet</a>. </p>
<p>A report presented at COP27 challenges the adequacy of this amount, showing developing countries need a staggering <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/08/developing-countries-climate-crisis-funding-2030-report-nicholas-stern">$2 trillion each year from 2030</a> of climate finance. </p>
<p>Denmark took the lead on loss and damage finance in September, when it pledged 100 million Danish krones (US$13.5 million). A few <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/2022/11/09/cop27-climate-conferences-finance-day-yields-mixed-results/">other nations</a> have since followed suit during the summit and at its “finance day” yesterday.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-three-reasons-rich-countries-can-no-longer-ignore-calls-to-pay-developing-world-for-climate-havoc-193873">COP27: three reasons rich countries can no longer ignore calls to pay developing world for climate havoc</a>
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<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/climate-un-lossdamage-belgium-idAFKBN2RX11T">Germany</a> has pledged €170 million (US$170.4 million) for its “Global Shield” project, which will provide climate risk insurance and prevention support to vulnerable countries. Ireland announced it would contribute <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2022/11/08/ireland-must-show-leadership-on-loss-and-damage-caused-by-climate-crisis/">€10 million</a> (US$10 million) to this project in 2023. </p>
<p>Other pledges include <a href="https://m.solomontimes.com/news/new-zealand-announces-loss-and-damage-finance-for-climate-change/12279">NZ$20 million</a> (US$11.8 million) from New Zealand and up to €50 million (US$50.1 million) from Austria, and an additional €2.5 million (US$2.5 million) from Belgium directed to Mozambique as part of a wider package.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1585859655154257920"}"></div></p>
<p>Under heavy lobbying from Barbados, the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-export-finance-launches-new-debt-solution-to-help-developing-countries-with-climate-shocks">United Kingdom government announced</a> a loan scheme with so-called “Climate Resilient Debt Clauses”. This offers low-income countries and small island developing states the ability to defer debt repayments for two years years in the event of a severe climate shock or natural disaster. </p>
<p>Even China, which stresses it has no obligation to participate in contributing to a loss and damage fund, indicated it would be <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/china-willing-contribute-climate-compensation-mechanism-chinese-climate-envoy-2022-11-09/">willing to support a loss and damage compensation mechanism</a> for poorer countries, though this wouldn’t involve contributing cash. </p>
<h2>A fraught issue</h2>
<p>This year marks the first time loss and damage is formally on the UN climate conference <a href="https://unfccc.int/documents/621869">negotiating agenda</a> – though it took marathon negotiations into the small hours on the conference’s first day to get there.</p>
<p>While this is an important victory for developing countries and small island nations, the intense negotiations just for the right to talk about loss and damage show how fraught the issue is.</p>
<p>What’s more, the agreement to simply put loss and damage on the agenda comes with terms. One is to put a plan in place by 2024, which is considered “<a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/climate-compensation-tops-cop27-agenda-as-talks-begin-20221107-p5bw2v">our bare minimum</a>” by the Alliance for Small Island States. <a href="https://unclimatesummit.org/cop27-day-1-loss-damage-on-cop-agenda-for-first-time/">Activist Mohamed Adow</a> from Power Shift Africa was scathing, saying it left talks “like a car that stalls on the starting grid” if no plan is agreed in Egypt.</p>
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<p>Another condition is to exclude discussions on liability and compensation. This is a red line issue for many rich countries such as the United States, which fear that admitting liability for historical and ongoing climate disasters could open themselves up to compensation for open-ended claims.</p>
<p>But for nations most vulnerable to climate change, there are critical issues of climate justice at stake.</p>
<p>Climate justice means recognising that those who have contributed the least to climate change are bearing its greatest costs in extreme weather, disasters and sea level rise, and then taking measures to redress that inequity.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/views-from-cop27-how-the-climate-conference-could-confront-colonialism-by-centring-indigenous-rights-194223">Views from COP27: How the climate conference could confront colonialism by centring Indigenous rights</a>
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<p>These countries include Pacific and Caribbean Island states, impoverished central African countries and low-lying poorer nations such as Bangladesh. Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley put it acidly in <a href="https://latinarepublic.com/2022/11/08/mia-mottley-prime-minister-of-barbados-speaks-at-the-opening-of-cop27/">her COP27 address</a>: </p>
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<p>This world looks, still, too much like when it was part of an imperialistic empire.</p>
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<p>Mottley also called for oil and gas companies to be required to contribute to a loss and damage fund, asking: </p>
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<p>How do companies make $200 billion dollars in profits in the last three months and not expect to contribute at least 10 cents in every dollar of profit to a loss and damage fund?</p>
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<h2>What happens if finance fails?</h2>
<p>Despite the strong rhetoric following the COP27’s finance day announcements, we’re unlikely to see agreement on a funding target for loss and damage at COP27. The pledges of developed countries have been welcomed, but developing countries are pushing for a long-term, global systemic response. </p>
<p>Where there may be more progress is on a funding delivery mechanism, and a clarification of where finance might come from – whether from governments, multilateral funding agencies, private finance sources or <a href="https://climatetrace.org/news/more-than-70000-of-the-highest-emitting-greenhouse-gas">big polluters</a>. </p>
<p>If developing countries don’t see progress on loss and damage funding at COP27, they may explore other options to hold nations and carbon major companies to account for the harms their emissions are inflicting, including through litigation before domestic and international courts. </p>
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<p>Many nations already are <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-three-reasons-rich-countries-can-no-longer-ignore-calls-to-pay-developing-world-for-climate-havoc-193873">exploring such options</a>. Antigua, Barbuda and Tuvalu are together planning to bring an advisory opinion request on climate harms to the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea. Vanuatu is mobilising support for a similar request to the International Court of Justice.</p>
<p>More broadly, failing to meet the developing world’s calls for fairness through genuine negotiations on loss and damage risks unravelling the fragile hopes for <a href="https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2022-11-07/secretary-generals-remarks-high-level-opening-of-cop27-delivered-scroll-down-for-all-english-version">climate solidarity</a> that underpin international action.</p>
<p>To quote again <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/publication/cost-delay-why-finance-address-loss-and-damage-must-be-agreed-cop27">Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley</a>: </p>
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<p>If COP cannot deliver on its promise on loss and damage […] 40% of the world’s population and more will wonder what the point of it is.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tensions-and-war-undermine-climate-cooperation-but-theres-a-silver-lining-193847">Tensions and war undermine climate cooperation – but there's a silver lining</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jacqueline Peel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Wealthy nations have been reluctant to put loss and damage on the COP27 agenda. If negotiations fail, they could ‘unravel the fragile hopes for climate solidarity’Jacqueline Peel, Director, Melbourne Climate Futures, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.