tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/climate-summit-103493/articlesClimate summit – The Conversation2023-11-29T19:18:21Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2186972023-11-29T19:18:21Z2023-11-29T19:18:21ZCOP28: How will Australia navigate domestic climate wins and fossil fuel exports at the negotiating table?<p>As the COP28 climate summit gets underway in the oil production hub of the United Arab Emirates today, Australia’s climate minister Chris Bowen will detail our progress in meeting emissions cut targets and updated projections. </p>
<p>The second Annual Climate Change Statement will be tabled in parliament at noon. But we already know some of the detail. Australia is now likely to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/26/cop28-australia-to-bring-evidence-it-can-meet-2030-climate-target-but-pressure-builds-over-fossil-fuels">cut its emissions 42% below 2005 levels by 2030</a> – very close to the legislated 43% target the government <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=r6885">introduced last year</a>.</p>
<p>This is likely to give Bowen a spring in his step, when combined with last week’s funding announcement <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-will-underwrite-risky-investments-in-renewables-heres-why-thats-a-good-idea-218427">on renewables and storage</a>. From this strengthened platform, he will argue Australia can be trusted to meet its climate goals. </p>
<p>Next week Bowen heads to Dubai to lead Australia’s negotiating team. He can expect international pressure to be more ambitious in setting the nation’s 2035 target. This is essential if we are to <a href="https://unfccc.int/documents/631600">keep 1.5°C within reach</a>. Scientists consistently say wealthy countries such as Australia should be cutting their emissions by <a href="https://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/australias-paris-agreement-pathways">50 to 75% by 2030</a> to meet the Paris Agreement goals. </p>
<p>But Bowen can also expect a different pressure, as efforts to phase down or phase out fossil fuels such as Australia’s gas and coal gather pace. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-disasters-and-heat-intensify-can-the-world-meet-the-urgency-of-the-moment-at-the-cop28-climate-talks-217063">As disasters and heat intensify, can the world meet the urgency of the moment at the COP28 climate talks?</a>
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<h2>What role will Australia play in COP28 negotiations?</h2>
<p>At COP28, Australian negotiators are likely to have two broad objectives. The first is to achieve ambitious emissions reductions in line with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal. The agreement requires countries to make increasingly stringent five year plans – called “nationally determined contributions” – in line with keeping global warming within the range of 1.5–2°C. </p>
<p>The second is to ensure positive outcomes for our Pacific neighbours. These objectives are linked, given the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Foreign_Affairs_Defence_and_Trade/Supportingdemocracy/Report/Chapter_3_-_Climate_Change">existential threat</a> climate change poses to many Pacific island countries if 1.5°C of warming is exceeded. </p>
<p>Australia will play a prominent role in negotiations around adapting to climate change, as assistant climate minister Jenny McAllister will <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/mcallister/media-releases/australias-role-pre-cop-climate-talks#:%7E:text=Assistant%20Minister%20McAllister%20accepted%20an,parties%20to%20the%20Paris%20Agreement">co-chair this work</a>. We will also be visible in efforts to lay out the ground rules for the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-a-year-on-from-climate-change-funding-breakthrough-poor-countries-eye-disappointment-at-dubai-summit-217198">new Loss and Damage fund</a>, a key outcome from last year’s COP27 in Egypt. </p>
<p>Negotiators are also hoping for an announcement on Australia’s bid to host a joint Australia-Pacific COP meeting in 2026. This bid has already <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/what-makes-cop28-important/">increased global scrutiny</a> of Australia’s international engagement on climate and its domestic actions.</p>
<h2>The elephant in the room will be fossil fuels</h2>
<p>For many nations – especially our Pacific neighbours – the elephant in the room is Australia’s plans to keep expanding fossil fuel production. This overshadows Australia’s credibility on domestic emissions reduction and its commitment to the Pacific. </p>
<p>As resources minister Madeleine King <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/king/media-releases/australia-retains-energy-export-world-leader-status">spruiked in June</a>, Australia is “one of the world’s largest exporters of liquefied natural gas, as well as the world’s largest exporter of metallurgical coal and second largest exporter of thermal coal”, based on 2021 figures. </p>
<p>The federal government <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/02/coalmine-approvals-in-australia-this-year-could-add-150m-tonnes-of-co2-to-atmosphere">continues to approve</a> new and expanded coal mines under the nation’s main environmental laws, the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act. This is despite the contribution to climate change made by the emissions of the coal when burned.</p>
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<p>In October 2023, the <a href="https://www.judgments.fedcourt.gov.au/judgments/Judgments/fca/single/2023/2023fca1208">Federal Court ruled</a> environment minister Tanya Plibersek could legally decide on coal mine proposals under the act without considering their potential climate impacts.</p>
<p>At COP28, observers expect to see a strong push for the <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/cop28-fossil-fuel-phaseout-carbon-bombs">phase-down</a> or total phase-out of unabated fossil fuels, given mounting evidence that <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/production-gap-report-2023">planned fossil fuel production</a> would blow the world’s remaining carbon budget several times over. </p>
<p>Even the COP28 President – UAE oil company CEO Sultan al-Jaber – has declared the phase-down of fossil fuels is <a href="https://time.com/6335225/sultan-al-jaber-cop28-interview/">“inevitable” and “essential”</a>. This has been undercut by reports the UAE <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-67508331">plans to make oil deals</a> during the climate talks. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-inside-the-united-arab-emirates-the-oil-giant-hosting-2023-climate-change-summit-217859">COP28: inside the United Arab Emirates, the oil giant hosting 2023 climate change summit</a>
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<p>Australia’s position on phasing down fossil fuels remains uncertain but there’s an indication of the likely policy direction in Bowen’s <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/speeches/speech-lowy-institute">recent speech</a> to the Lowy Institute. </p>
<p>In this speech, the minister described Australia’s position as a “traditional fossil fuel-based economy in the middle of a major transition” to a low-carbon energy system. On energy exports, he sees Australia transforming from a major fossil fuel producer to a renewable energy superpower.</p>
<p>As Bowen noted, our domestic decarbonisation efforts are important, but <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/speeches/speech-lowy-institute">in global terms</a> they: </p>
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<p>[…] pale in comparison to the emissions reductions achieved if we are able to harness and export our renewable energy to help countries without our abundant renewable resources to decarbonise.</p>
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<p>How Australia navigates this dilemma will be of great interest to our Pacific neighbours and other international onlookers at COP28. </p>
<p>For many, it will be the real litmus test for Australia’s ambition to be a global climate leader.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-disasters-and-heat-intensify-can-the-world-meet-the-urgency-of-the-moment-at-the-cop28-climate-talks-217063">As disasters and heat intensify, can the world meet the urgency of the moment at the COP28 climate talks?</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jacqueline Peel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New emissions projections bode well for Australia’s climate efforts – but our fossil fuel exports continue apace. Jacqueline Peel, Director, Melbourne Climate Futures, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1709792021-11-02T15:36:50Z2021-11-02T15:36:50Z6 priorities could deliver energy breakthroughs at the Glasgow climate summit – there’s progress on some already<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429678/original/file-20211102-19-a871qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C18%2C6240%2C4072&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The energy transition is already underway.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/electricity-pylons-and-wind-turbines-stand-beside-the-rwe-news-photo/510814700">Volker Hartmann/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Much of the news coming out of the U.N. climate conference has focused on the spectacle, and how countries’ pledges <a href="https://www.climate-transparency.org/g20-climate-performance/g20report2021">aren’t on track</a> to prevent dangerous climate change. But behind the scenes, there is reason for hope.</p>
<p>In many countries, the energy transition is already underway as falling costs make renewable energy ubiquitous and <a href="https://www.irena.org/newsroom/pressreleases/2021/Jun/Majority-of-New-Renewables-Undercut-Cheapest-Fossil-Fuel-on-Cost">more affordable than fossil fuels</a>. A growing number of world leaders agreed at the climate summit to <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-announces-a-sweeping-methane-plan-heres-why-cutting-the-greenhouse-gas-is-crucial-for-protecting-climate-and-health-168220">reduce methane emissions</a> and aim for net-zero emissions. Over 40 countries <a href="https://ukcop26.org/global-coal-to-clean-power-transition-statement/">committed to phase out unabated coal power</a> in the next two decades.</p>
<p>The challenge for government officials now is figuring out how to help scale up clean energy dramatically while reducing fossil fuel emissions, and still meeting the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-banning-financing-for-fossil-fuel-projects-in-africa-isnt-a-climate-solution-169220">rapidly growing energy demands</a> of billions of people in developing and emerging economies. With an <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/110121-europes-energy-crisis-deepens-as-russia-slashes-gas-exports">ongoing energy crisis</a> creating shortages and record high prices in several countries, navigating this early stage of the energy transition requires thoughtful policies and well-prioritized plans. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=DAwwVkwAAAAJ&hl=en">climate</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=sfI-c0YAAAAJ&hl=en">policy experts</a> with decades of experience in international energy policy, we identified six strategic priorities that could help countries navigate this tricky terrain.</p>
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<img alt="Illustration showing where to cut emissions soonest most efficiently" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421580/original/file-20210916-21-15niz3l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421580/original/file-20210916-21-15niz3l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421580/original/file-20210916-21-15niz3l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421580/original/file-20210916-21-15niz3l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421580/original/file-20210916-21-15niz3l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=632&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421580/original/file-20210916-21-15niz3l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=632&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421580/original/file-20210916-21-15niz3l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=632&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Meeting the Paris climate agreement goal of keeping global warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 F) will require reducing fossil fuels and increasing renewable energy and energy efficiency, as well as keeping carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere with techniques such as carbon capture and storage or use (CCS and CCU).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">International Renewable Energy Agency</span></span>
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<h2>1) Deploy carbon pricing and markets more widely</h2>
<p>Only a few <a href="https://carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/">countries, states and regions currently have a carbon price</a> that is high enough to push polluters to cut their emissions. </p>
<p>A price on carbon, often created through a tax or carbon market system, captures the cost of harms caused by greenhouse gas emissions that companies don’t currently pay for, such as climate change, damage to crops and rising health care costs. It is particularly critical for power production and energy-intensive industries. </p>
<p>One goal of the Glasgow negotiations is to write rules to help carbon markets function well and transparently. That’s essential for effectively meeting the many net-zero climate goals that have been announced by countries from <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-pledges-grow">Japan and South Korea to the U.S., China and those in the European Union</a>. It includes rules on the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/sep/16/carbon-offset-projects-carbon-emissions">use of carbon offsets</a>, which allow individuals or companies to invest in projects elsewhere to offset their own emissions. Carbon offsets are currently <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-corporate-climate-pledges-of-net-zero-emissions-should-trigger-a-healthy-dose-of-skepticism-156386">highly contentious</a> and not delivering trustworthy emissions credits.</p>
<h2>2) Focus attention on the hard-to-decarbonize sectors</h2>
<p>Shipping, road freight and industries like aluminum, cement and steel are all <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2020/Sep/Reaching-Zero-with-Renewables">difficult places for cutting emissions</a>, in part because they don’t yet have tested, affordable replacements for fossil fuels. While there are some <a href="https://theconversation.com/bendable-concrete-and-other-co2-infused-cement-mixes-could-dramatically-cut-global-emissions-152544">innovative ideas</a>, competitiveness concerns – such as companies moving production out of the country to avoid regulations – have been a key barrier to progress.</p>
<p>Europe is trying to overcome this barrier by establishing a <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/better-regulation/have-your-say/initiatives/12228-EU-Green-Deal-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism-_en">carbon border adjustment mechanism</a>, which would tax imports of goods that didn’t face the same level of carbon taxes at home.</p>
<p>The United States and the European Union also announced at the summit that they would work to negotiate a global agreement to <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/10/31/joint-us-eu-statement-on-trade-in-steel-and-aluminum/">reduce the high emissions in steel production</a>.</p>
<h2>3) Get China and other emerging economies on board</h2>
<p>It is clear that coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel, needs to be phased out fast, and doing so is critical to both the U.N.’s energy and climate agendas. Given that more than <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-china-coal/china-generated-over-half-worlds-coal-fired-power-in-2020-study-idUSKBN2BK0PZ">half of global coal</a> is consumed in China, its actions stand out, although other emerging economies such as India, Indonesia and Vietnam are also critical.</p>
<p>This will not be easy. <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-plants">Notably half of the Chinese coal plants are less than a decade old</a>, a fraction of a coal plant’s typical life span. China has raised its climate commitments, including pledging to reach net-zero emissions by 2060 and agreeing to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02645-w">end financing of coal power plants in other countries</a>, but its <a href="https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/Party.aspx?party=CHN&prototype=1">current pathway</a> will not yield substantial reductions this decade.</p>
<p>A major announcement by <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/01/india-targets-2070-for-net-zero-emissions-china-makes-no-new-commitments.html">India’s prime minister at the COP around a net-zero goal</a> for his country by 2070, with interim targets for ratcheting down emissions before then, is an early win. </p>
<p>Indonesia and Vietnam signed on to the <a href="https://ukcop26.org/global-coal-to-clean-power-transition-statement/">pledge to phase out unabated coal power</a>, but Indonesia included some caveats. It said it would “consider accelerating coal phase-out into the 2040s,” but made that conditional on receiving more international financial and technical assistance.</p>
<h2>4) Focus on innovation</h2>
<p>Support for innovation has brought cutting-edge renewable power and electric vehicles much faster than anticipated. More is possible. For example, <a href="https://www.g20.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Annexes-G20-Joint-Energy-and-Climate-2021.pdf">offshore wind</a>, geothermal, carbon capture and <a href="https://theconversation.com/hydrogen-is-one-future-fuel-oil-execs-and-environmentalists-could-both-support-as-rival-countries-search-for-climate-solutions-159201">green hydrogen</a> are new developments that can make a big difference in years to come.</p>
<p>At the climate conference, a coalition of world leaders launched what they call the “Breakthrough Agenda” – a framework for bringing governments and businesses together to collaborate on clean energy and technology. The <a href="https://racetozero.unfccc.int/system/glasgow-breakthroughs/">Glasgow Breakthroughs</a> include making electric vehicles the affordable norm, <a href="https://www.irena.org/events/2021/Oct/IRENA-to-Mobilise-Energy-Transition-Action-at-COP26">bringing down clean energy costs</a>, scaling up hydrogen energy storage and getting steel production to near-zero emissions, all by 2030.</p>
<p>The countries and companies that lead in developing these new technologies will reap economic benefits, including jobs and economic growth. More opportunities exist in <a href="https://www.irena.org/events/2020/Aug/Thirty-Innovations-for-a-Renewable-Powered-Future">market design, social acceptance, equity, regulatory frameworks and business models</a>. Energy systems are deeply interconnected to social issues, so changing them will be successful only if the solutions look beyond the technology to societal needs.</p>
<h2>5) Prioritize green financing</h2>
<p>Over 160 banks and investment groups are involved in another coalition that has agreed to <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/biggest-financial-players-back-net-zero">put pressure on high-emissions industries</a> by tying lending decisions to the goal of global net-zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>Ramping up green financing will require transparent taxonomies, or guidelines, for defining green and clean investments; science-based transition plans for companies and financial institutions; and a hard look at portfolios of financial institutions given the risk of substantial stranded fossil fuel assets, such as coal power plants that haven’t reached the end of their life spans but can no longer be used. </p>
<p>Meeting the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-banning-financing-for-fossil-fuel-projects-in-africa-isnt-a-climate-solution-169220">transition funding needs of developing economies</a> should be a high priority. </p>
<h2>6) Reduce short-lived greenhouse gases</h2>
<p>The Biden administration <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/11/02/fact-sheet-president-biden-tackles-methane-emissions-spurs-innovations-and-supports-sustainable-agriculture-to-build-a-clean-energy-economy-and-create-jobs/">announced a sweeping set of rules</a> on Nov. 2, 2021, for reducing emissions of methane, a greenhouse gas many times more potent than carbon dioxide that comes from leaking oil and gas infrastructure, coal mines, agriculture and landfills. Methane doesn’t stay in the atmosphere as long, so stopping emissions can have faster climate benefits while carbon emissions are reduced. </p>
<p>The U.S. and the European Union also launched a new global pledge to <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-eu-urge-30-methane-emissions-cuts-a-move-crucial-for-protecting-climate-and-health-and-it-can-pay-for-itself-168220">cut methane emissions by nearly one-third by 2030</a>. Over 100 countries have <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_21_5766">signed on</a>.</p>
<p>This type of coalition, based on a tightly focused issue, can bring meaningful emissions reductions in places that are less likely to support broader climate agreements.</p>
<h2>Not one solution</h2>
<p>It is likely that U.N. energy and climate deliberations will continue to move in fits and starts. The real work needs to take place at a more practical implementation level, such as in states, provinces and municipalities. </p>
<p>If there is one thing we have learned, it is that mitigating climate change will be a long slog. While it’s uncontested that <a href="https://irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2021/Jun/IRENA_World_Energy_Transitions_Outlook_2021.pdf?la=en&hash=C2117A51B74EAB29727609D778CDD16C49E56E83">the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation far exceed the costs</a>, politicians need to show that the many energy transitions emerging are good for economies and communities, and can create long-lasting jobs and tax revenue. </p>
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<img alt="COP26: the world’s biggest climate talks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<strong>This story is part of The Conversation’s coverage of COP26, the Glasgow climate conference, by experts from around the world.</strong>
<br><em>Amid a rising tide of climate news and stories, The Conversation is here to clear the air and make sure you get information you can trust. <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/cop26">Read more of our U.S.</a> and <a href="https://page.theconversation.com/cop26-glasgow-2021-climate-change-summit/">global coverage</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>This article was updated Nov. 4, 2021, with the countries agreeing to phase out unabated coal power and Indonesia’s caveats.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170979/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Clean energy innovation, giving up coal, cutting methane and getting China and India on board for net-zero can deliver progress at COP26.Dolf Gielen, Director for Technology and Innovation at the International Renewable Energy Agency and Payne Institute Fellow, Colorado School of MinesMorgan Bazilian, Professor of Public Policy and Director, Payne Institute, Colorado School of MinesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1695422021-10-24T19:02:52Z2021-10-24T19:02:52ZA successful COP26 is essential for Earth’s future. Here’s what needs to go right<p>A week from today, a crucial round of United Nations climate change negotiations will begin in Glasgow and the stakes could not be higher. By the end, we’ll know how far nations are willing to go to address humanity’s biggest challenge.</p>
<p>So is COP26 on track for success? There are reasons to be hopeful. </p>
<p>More than 100 countries, including China, the United States and United Kingdom, have already pledged to reach net-zero emissions. Globally, renewable energy is <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/05/11/995849954/renewable-energy-capacity-jumped-45-worldwide-in-2020-iea-sees-new-normal">booming</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/asias-energy-pivot-is-a-warning-to-australia-clinging-to-coal-is-bad-for-the-economy-169541">the tide is turning</a> against fossil fuels, and the <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/markets-moving-economic-costs-australias-climate-inaction/">economic costs</a> of not acting on climate change are becoming ever more obvious. </p>
<p>But if history has taught us anything, no country at the summit will agree to do more on climate change than it believes it can do at home. In other words, domestic politics is what drives international negotiations. </p>
<h2>What will happen in Glasgow?</h2>
<p>The first COP, or Conference of Parties, was held in Berlin in 1995. About a quarter of a century later, it will meet for the 26th time. </p>
<p>COP26 will determine the direction of key aspects of the fight against global warming. Chief <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-cop26-heres-how-global-climate-negotiations-work-and-whats-expected-from-the-glasgow-summit-169434">among them</a> is how well nations have implemented their commitments under the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to well below 2°C, and the extent to which they will increase that ambition. </p>
<p>Other issues on the agenda include climate finance to developing nations, adaptation to climate change and carbon trading rules.</p>
<p>Starting on October 31, hundreds of government delegates will attend for two weeks of complex and intense negotiations over the specific text of the agreement. </p>
<p>Typically, what delegates can’t sort out is left to political leaders, who negotiate the thorniest issues. Historically, final agreement occurs in the wee hours of the final session.</p>
<p>Outside the convention centre is the unofficial COP, which is more like a world climate expo. Thousands of representatives from business, civil society and elsewhere — from bankers and billionaires, to students and survivalists – gather for panel discussions, exhibitions and protests.</p>
<h2>Progress is slow</h2>
<p>Global climate talks involve people from all around the globe with different interests, preferences, and mandates (what negotiators sometimes call “red lines”). As you can imagine, progress can be slow. </p>
<p>Almost 200 nations are signed up to the Paris Agreement, and agreement is by consensus. That means just one country can hold up progress for hours or even days. </p>
<p>Cynics – more often than not, those wanting to <a href="https://theconversation.com/fossil-fuel-misinformation-may-sideline-one-of-the-most-important-climate-change-reports-ever-released-165887">delay climate action</a> – claim the whole process is nothing more than a talk shop. </p>
<p>It’s true, talk is slow. But it’s also much better than coercion, and without the negotiations countries would face much less pressure to act. It’s also true that over the last 25 years, these negotiations have redefined how the world thinks and acts on climate change. </p>
<p>After all, it was the COP in Paris that tasked the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to provide a <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/">special report</a> on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Its findings reverberated around the world. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/new-un-report-outlines-urgent-transformational-change-needed-to-hold-global-warming-to-1-5-c-103237">It found</a> if we’re to limit warming to 1.5°C, we must reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 45% by 2030, reaching near-zero by around 2050.</p>
<p>But since the Paris Agreement was struck, global emissions have continued to rise, even with the impacts of COVID-19. COP26 is a major test of whether the world can turn this around and avert runaway global warming.</p>
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<span class="caption">In 2019 and 2020, bushfires razed 24 million hectares of land in Australia.</span>
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<h2>Will Glasgow deliver?</h2>
<p>For the Glasgow summit to be deemed a success, a few things need to go right. First of all, countries need to commit not simply to net-zero targets by 2050, but stronger targets for 2030. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06876-2">Without them</a>, there’s zero chance the world will hold the rise in global temperatures to 2°C.</p>
<p>Major emitters will also need to support developing countries with the finance and technologies to enable them to transition to clean energy and adapt to climate change impacts, including severe flooding and prolonged droughts. </p>
<p>Other issues, such as rules around international carbon markets, will also be on the agenda, but even the most robust carbon markets are <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/117/16/8664">unlikely</a> to deliver emissions cuts at the speed scientists warn is necessary to avert disaster.</p>
<p>There are signs of hope. The US has been, historically, the most important player in the international negotiations, and President Joe Biden has outlined <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-says-the-us-will-rejoin-the-paris-climate-agreement-in-77-days-then-australia-will-really-feel-the-heat-149533">the most ambition climate plans</a> in the nation’s history ahead of the Glasgow summit.</p>
<p>The US, together with the UK, the European Union and a host of smaller countries, <a href="https://theconversation.com/glasgow-showdown-pacific-islands-demand-global-leaders-bring-action-not-excuses-to-un-summit-169649">including those in the Pacific</a>, comprise a strong and influential coalition of countries gunning to limit warming to 1.5°C.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-says-the-us-will-rejoin-the-paris-climate-agreement-in-77-days-then-australia-will-really-feel-the-heat-149533">Biden says the US will rejoin the Paris climate agreement in 77 days. Then Australia will really feel the heat</a>
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<p>So what stands in their way? Well, what countries are willing to commit to in Glasgow is not so much a function of what happens in Glasgow, but of <a href="https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/the-politics-of-climate-change-negotiations-9781783472109.html">domestic politics</a> in their capitals.</p>
<p>This is why Democrats in Washington are feverishly working to ensure <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/10/19/climate-reconciliation-biden-white-house/">Biden’s massive budget bill</a>, which includes measures such as a clean electricity program, makes its way through Congress. The bill is vital to the president’s commitment to halve emissions by 2030.</p>
<p>It’s also why astute observers have been fixated on well-known climate laggards heavily reliant on fossil fuels, such Brazil, Russia, and Australia, to see whether any domestic political developments might lead these nations to commit to more ambitious targets by 2030.</p>
<p>And it’s why lobbyists for industries that stand to lose from climate change – namely oil, gas and coal – know to kill off climate action in Glasgow, they need to kill off climate action at home.</p>
<p>International negotiations are often referred to as a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2706785">two-level game</a>. Changes at the domestic level can enable new and, hopefully, ambitious realignments at the international level. </p>
<p>Will these realignments occur? We don’t have long to find out, but at the domestic level in many nations, there has never been a worse time to advocate for fossil fuels – and this should give us all hope that action on climate change is more likely than ever. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/asias-energy-pivot-is-a-warning-to-australia-clinging-to-coal-is-bad-for-the-economy-169541">Asia's energy pivot is a warning to Australia: clinging to coal is bad for the economy</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christian Downie receives funding from the Australian Research Council</span></em></p>By the end of the summit, we’ll know how far nations are willing to go to address humanity’s biggest challenge. But while international politics matter, domestic politics are what counts.Christian Downie, Associate Professor, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1592332021-04-25T20:09:19Z2021-04-25T20:09:19ZMore reasons for optimism on climate change than we’ve seen for decades: 2 climate experts explain<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396685/original/file-20210423-17-163uhy1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=30%2C24%2C4093%2C2721&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s unusual for researchers who study our catastrophically changing climate to use the words “optimism” and “climate change” in the same sentence.</p>
<p>As an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) lead author and a climate communication researcher, we well understand how grave the climate situation is. The science projections tell us <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature18307">we’re not on track to stay under the Paris Agreement’s 2°C target</a>. Our planet’s biodiversity and oceans are in peril. And if we reach <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-climate-tipping-points-should-we-be-looking-out-for-27108">climate tipping points</a>, we’ll have little ability to mitigate runaway climate change. </p>
<p>But what if we were to come to a tipping point for climate <em>action</em>?</p>
<p>At Biden’s climate summit last week, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/live/science-environment-56842632">the US committed</a> to a 50-52% cut in greenhouse gas emissions reduction on 2005 levels by 2030. The UK promised a 78% emissions reduction by 2035, while the EU pledged to cut emissions 55% by 2030 on 1990 levels. And Japan committed to a 46% cut by 2030 on 2013 emissions. </p>
<p>Australia, however, brought nothing new to the table in terms of emissions, offering no further cuts to its planned 26-28% reduction on 2005 emissions by 2030.</p>
<p>Australia’s lack of ambition aside, the summit is not the only sign transformation in the global climate effort is underway. Recently, more reasons for optimism have emerged than we’ve seen for decades.</p>
<h2>A groundswell of change</h2>
<p>The science on climate change is now more detailed than ever. Although <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-concept-of-net-zero-is-a-dangerous-trap-157368">much of it is devastating</a>, it’s also resoundingly clear. The IPCC’s AR6 reports — the latest assessment of the science and social responses to climate change — will be released in time for the next major climate summit, COP26, in Glasgow in November. This means policy makers will have a stronger directive than ever on the urgency to act.</p>
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<p>It’s now also unequivocal that people want action. The largest ever global opinion survey on climate change, <a href="https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/librarypage/climate-and-disaster-resilience-/The-Peoples-Climate-Vote-Results.html">The Peoples’ Climate Vote</a>, found in late 2020 that 64% of people consider the climate crisis a “global emergency”. </p>
<p>This poll also showed strong support for wide-ranging policy action. Support for climate action was above 80% in all countries among people with post-secondary education, underscoring the importance of education in advancing support for climate-friendly policy.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/china-just-stunned-the-world-with-its-step-up-on-climate-action-and-the-implications-for-australia-may-be-huge-147268">China just stunned the world with its step-up on climate action – and the implications for Australia may be huge</a>
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<p>Policy makers at last seem to be taking both science and public will for action seriously. Some 120 countries have committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2050. Even the current largest emitter, China, <a href="https://theconversation.com/china-just-stunned-the-world-with-its-step-up-on-climate-action-and-the-implications-for-australia-may-be-huge-147268">has committed to</a> carbon neutrality by 2060, or sooner.</p>
<p>Business and finance are also on board. Internationally, the <a href="https://www.fsb-tcfd.org/">Taskforce on Climate-related Financial Disclosures</a> and, at home, the <a href="https://www.apra.gov.au/">Australian Prudential Regulation Authority</a> now consider climate change mitigation central to corporations’ due care and diligence. Company directors who fail to consider and disclose climate-related risks <a href="https://cpd.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Noel-Hutley-SC-and-Sebastian-Hartford-Davis-Opinion-2019-and-2016_pdf.pdf">could now be held liable</a> under Australia’s Corporations Act.</p>
<p>International finance and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/02/coal-power-becoming-uninsurable-as-firms-refuse-cover">insurers</a>, are also progressively <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/the-powerful-investors-rewriting-the-corporate-game-book-20200116-p53rvr">abandoning coal</a>. And investment in climate solutions is <a href="https://newforests.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/2030-Investment-Vision-for-NCS.pdf">garnering increasing interest</a>. There is much opportunity in this domain: the OECD estimated in 2017 that investment of <a href="https://www.oecd.org/environment/cc/g20-climate/synthesis-investing-in-climate-investing-in-growth.pdf">US$6.9 trillion a year over 15 years</a> in clean energy infrastructure would be needed to keep global temperature rise under 2°C.</p>
<p>Carbon border taxes are also <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-economy-can-withstand-the-proposed-european-union-carbon-tariff-heres-what-we-find-159062">now being mooted</a>, so countries will pay for their high-emissions supply chains in taxes on their exports. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/21/australias-ambition-on-climate-change-is-held-back-by-a-toxic-mix-of-rightwing-politics-media-and-vested-interests">Australia is particularly exposed</a> in this regard, given it’s slower to decarbonise than many of its trading partners.</p>
<h2>Better social understanding of climate</h2>
<p>The unprecedented <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-attending-a-climate-strike-can-change-minds-most-importantly-your-own-122862">student climate strikes in 2019</a> brought climate change repeatedly onto media agendas and into conversations around dinner tables. The student strikers can no doubt be credited with setting off the first domino in a tipping point for action that seems to be beginning now.</p>
<p>In the past two years, we have seen greater visibility and increased social understanding of climate change. Globally, films like David Attenborough’s climate testament, A Life on Our Planet, have made the climate and biodiversity crisis unflinchingly clear for audiences around the world. In Australia, popular media outputs — such as the film 2040, ABC’s Fight for Planet A and Big Weather — have enhanced Australians’ climate literacy. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Films like David Attenborough’s A Life on Our Planet increase social understanding of climate change.</span></figcaption>
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<p>While climate denial still exists, people overwhelmingly understand climate change is real and is contributing to disasters such as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-staggering-1-8-million-hectares-burned-in-high-severity-fires-during-australias-black-summer-157883">2019-2020 Black Summer bushfires</a>. In fact, 82% of Australians think <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/climate-of-the-nation-climate-change-concern-hits-82/">climate change will lead to more bushfires</a>.</p>
<p>Though research on social understanding of climate has long shown climate change <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1745691615598516">makes people feel powerless</a>, we now have tools giving us agency to act by meaningfully reducing our own emissions, such as <a href="https://www.climateclever.org/">carbon accounting apps</a> that help us track and minimise household emissions. </p>
<p>And such change from below is significant: <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629618310314">some research shows</a> household emissions account for 72% of the global total. So with the right incentives (we’ll need both carrots and sticks) behavioural change could contribute significantly to emissions reductions. </p>
<h2>Actions for the decisive decade</h2>
<p>For the first time, then, political will and global public opinion seem focused on profound action across many domains. This could mean we’re not bound to the current heating trajectory. But to elude a catastrophic <a href="https://theconversation.com/seriously-ugly-heres-how-australia-will-look-if-the-world-heats-by-3-c-this-century-157875">temperature rise of 3-4°C by 2100</a>, we must make political ambitions, collective change and personal contributions concrete.</p>
<p>Actions for this decisive decade include putting the international commitments to deep emissions cuts into action, with clear pathways to net zero. Ambitions on cuts will have to be continually ratcheted up, this decade, with developed countries making the greatest reductions. Climate laggards - <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/biden-administration-pressure-climate-laggards-like-australia/">as Australia is increasingly characterised</a> - will need to step up. </p>
<p>Coal will have to be phased out quickly, carbon pollution taxed and investment in climate solutions incentivised. People in developed countries will need to accept fundamental lifestyle changes and decision makers must construct policies to guide such change. Governments must make policy based on science — which the coronavirus pandemic <a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-what-the-coronavirus-pandemic-can-teach-us-about-tackling-climate-change-134399">has shown we can do</a>.</p>
<p>It seems we’re heading for an “<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-14503-9">overshoot</a>” scenario, where the global temperature rise will exceed 1.5°C, before we pull the temperature back down over decades with negative emissions. Investment in such technology initiatives as direct <a href="https://theconversation.com/engineers-have-built-machines-to-scrub-co-from-the-air-but-will-it-halt-climate-change-152975">air carbon dioxide capture</a>, must be massively scaled up. Nature-based solutions such as reafforestation and restoration of carbon sequestering ecosystems, on land and in the water, will also be crucial. </p>
<p>Above all, we need to act <em>fast</em>. <a href="https://theconversation.com/failure-is-not-an-option-after-a-lost-decade-on-climate-action-the-2020s-offer-one-last-chance-158913">The 2020s really are our final chance</a>: our “Earthshot” moment to start to repair the planet after decades of inaction.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/spot-the-difference-as-world-leaders-rose-to-the-occasion-at-the-biden-climate-summit-morrison-faltered-159295">Spot the difference: as world leaders rose to the occasion at the Biden climate summit, Morrison faltered</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gabi Mocatta receives funding from the Tasmanian Department of Premier and Cabinet's Climate Research Grants Program, the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and the Department of Police, Fire and Emergency Management, Tasmania.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca Harris receives funding from Rebecca Harris receives funding from the Tasmanian Government Department of Premier and Cabinet's Climate Research Grants Program, the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and the Department of Police, Fire and Emergency Management, Tasmania.</span></em></p>For the first time, political will and global public opinion seem focused on profound climate action. This decade will be a decisive one.Gabi Mocatta, Lecturer in Communication, Deakin University, and Research Fellow in Climate Change Communication, Climate Futures Program, University of TasmaniaRebecca Harris, Senior Lecturer in Climatology, Director, Climate Futures Program, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.