tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/climate-talks-11306/articlesClimate talks – The Conversation2023-12-20T17:13:01Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2112122023-12-20T17:13:01Z2023-12-20T17:13:01ZHow fossil fuel companies won COP28<p>Another climate summit has come and gone. The 28th Conference of the Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28 to you and me) took stock of the world’s progress in limiting global heating to 1.5°C. This is the guardrail scientists have advised world leaders to make every effort to limit warming to, lest they trigger tipping points that send Earth hurtling into climate breakdown.</p>
<p>So now that the dust has settled, who left Dubai happy and who went home empty-handed? Let’s ask the experts.</p>
<p>First, the winners.</p>
<p>COP28 ended with a historic agreement to “transition away” from using fossil fuels in energy systems, the biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions altering Earth’s climate. So why did the companies plying coal, oil and gas have a good summit?</p>
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<p><em><strong>This roundup of The Conversation’s coverage of COP28 comes from our <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">weekly climate action newsletter</a>.</strong> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed.</a></em></p>
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<p>As we reported last week, the failure to include stronger language in the final text (including the promise of a definitive “phase-out” of fossil fuels) was condemned by climate and energy researchers. “Abated” burning of coal (the dirtiest fossil fuel) is permitted in the text, but with no guidance on how much of the emissions must be captured and stored to be considered abated, <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-cop28-climate-agreement-is-a-step-backwards-on-fossil-fuels-219753">COP28 left a loophole</a></strong> wide enough to drive a coal train through.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-cop28-climate-agreement-is-a-step-backwards-on-fossil-fuels-219753">The COP28 climate agreement is a step backwards on fossil fuels</a>
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<p>Natural gas also snuck into the text as a protected “transitional fuel”. <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ese3.956">Research</a> has indicated that leaks of methane (a potent but short-lived greenhouse gas) from oil and gas infrastructure can actually make natural gas worse for the climate than coal.</p>
<p>A good thing more than 50 oil companies pledged to <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/five-major-outcomes-from-the-latest-un-climate-summit-219655">plug these leaks</a></strong> at COP28 (although the majority of firms haven’t signed). Mark Maslin, Priti Parikh and Simon Chin-Yee, a team of climate experts at UCL, note that gas is a healthier option for home cooking in developing countries than burning wood.</p>
<p>“Nonetheless, there really should be a timeline attached to the use of these transitional fuels,” they say. (Such a phase-out deadline was deemed “<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67566443">too controversial</a>” to even discuss.)</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-five-major-outcomes-from-the-latest-un-climate-summit-219655">COP28: Five major outcomes from the latest UN climate summit</a>
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<p>An agreement referencing fossil fuels – between nearly 200 countries and brokered by a petrostate – is still startling says Matt McDonald, an associate professor of international relations at The University of Queensland. An acknowledgement that these fuels must be eliminated has eluded negotiators for three decades, he says.</p>
<p>Perhaps the severity of the climate crisis is starting to sink in.</p>
<p>“In 2023, temperatures are already spiking past the crucial threshold of 1.5°C,” McDonald says. “The global stocktake of emissions cuts released in advance of the talks shows our <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/hard-fought-cop28-agreement-suggests-the-days-of-fossil-fuels-are-numbered-but-climate-catastrophe-is-not-yet-averted-219597">current efforts are not enough</a></strong> to stop further warming.”</p>
<p>Critically, this agreement is non-binding and will not limit the search for, extraction and burning of fossil fuels, as McDonald highlights:</p>
<p>“Countries such as Australia advocated stronger language on ending fossil fuels while maintaining a steady pipeline of new fossil fuel projects at home.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hard-fought-cop28-agreement-suggests-the-days-of-fossil-fuels-are-numbered-but-climate-catastrophe-is-not-yet-averted-219597">Hard-fought COP28 agreement suggests the days of fossil fuels are numbered – but climate catastrophe is not yet averted</a>
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<p><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/from-laggard-to-leader-why-australia-must-phase-out-fossil-fuel-exports-starting-now-219912">Who suffers from this arrangement</a></strong>? The Australian public for a start, according to Fergus Green, a lecturer in political theory and public policy at UCL.</p>
<p>“The foreign-owned corporations that produce most of our coal and gas pay little tax and employ relatively few people, while capturing billions of dollars in state and federal government subsidies,” he says. </p>
<p>“Scaling up as a clean energy superpower could bring more economic growth, jobs and tax revenue than would be lost from fossil fuels – especially if we taxed the fossil fuel industry properly on its way out.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-laggard-to-leader-why-australia-must-phase-out-fossil-fuel-exports-starting-now-219912">From laggard to leader? Why Australia must phase out fossil fuel exports, starting now</a>
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<h2>Small islands</h2>
<p>Now let’s hear from the other losers.</p>
<p>COP28 seemed to start well. On the first day, delegates agreed a loss and damage fund to compensate developing countries for the consequences of climate change – lost livelihoods, collapsed ecosystems, drowned homes – they cannot adapt to.</p>
<p>How the fund will work is unclear but present arrangements <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-applaud-the-cop28-climate-summits-loss-and-damage-fund-deal-just-yet-heres-whats-missing-218093">privilege donors</a></strong> (developed countries) over recipients.</p>
<p>Wealthy nations that have emitted the most and are responsible for much of the problem have pledged US$700 million (£550 million) so far. Compare that with the actual annual cost of climate-related loss and damage in developing countries, which is estimated to be somewhere <a href="https://assets-global.website-files.com/605869242b205050a0579e87/655b50e163c953059360564d_L%26DC_L%26D_Package_for_COP28_20112023_1227.pdf">between</a> US$100 billion and US$580 billion. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-applaud-the-cop28-climate-summits-loss-and-damage-fund-deal-just-yet-heres-whats-missing-218093">Don't applaud the COP28 climate summit's loss and damage fund deal just yet – here's what's missing</a>
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<p>Compare that with how much the UAE hosts spent on building COP28’s venue (<a href="https://www.lossanddamagecollaboration.org/pages/the-loss-and-damage-fund-and-pledges-at-cop28-shall-i-compare-thee-to-a-summers-day-or-to-the-annual-earnings-of-a-megastar-footballer">US$7 billion</a>), say Maslin, Parikh and Chin-Yee.</p>
<p>The overdue bill will lengthen as long as fossil fuels are dug up and burned. And it’s <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/how-cop28-failed-the-worlds-small-islands-219938">the world’s small islands</a></strong> where the greatest costs will be borne.</p>
<p>“Scientific evidence is clear,” says Alana Malinde S.N. Lancaster, head of the Caribbean Environmental Law Unit at the University of the West Indies in Barbados. “Rapidly eliminating coal, oil and gas is necessary to limit global warming to 1.5°C, as enshrined in the Paris agreement. Even at this limit, many small islands will face a drastic increase in coastal flooding from sea-level rise, and other effects which could render these countries uninhabitable.”</p>
<p>At the Dubai talks, delegates belonging to the Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis) said that without an immediate fossil fuel phase-out, the final text was “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/12/cop-28-australia-us-and-uk-say-they-wont-sign-agreement-that-would-be-death-certificate-for-small-islands">a death certificate</a>” and the product of a process that “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/13/cop28-landmark-deal-agreed-to-transition-away-from-fossil-fuels">has failed us</a>”.</p>
<p>Aosis had also hoped for an agreement to double funding to help developing countries adapt to climate change, Lancaster says.</p>
<p>“The agreement on adaptation in Dubai talks generally of the need for more finance, but makes few commitments,” says Susannah Fisher, a principal research fellow in geography at UCL. That conversation will have to be renewed next year, she adds, at COP29 in Azerbaijan.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-cop28-failed-the-worlds-small-islands-219938">How COP28 failed the world's small islands</a>
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<p>Meanwhile, the world is <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-agreement-on-adapting-to-climate-change-kicks-the-real-challenge-down-the-road-219696">adapting to a harsher climate</a></strong> much too slowly – and unevenly.</p>
<p>“Between 3.3 and 3.6 billion people live in places that are expected to be highly vulnerable to climate change,” Fisher says. “In Africa, tens of thousands of people will die from extreme heat unless radical measures are taken to adapt. Between 800 million and 3 billion people will not have enough water at 2°C global warming – and up to 4 billion at 4°C. We also have very little evidence that funded adaptation measures are working.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-agreement-on-adapting-to-climate-change-kicks-the-real-challenge-down-the-road-219696">COP28 agreement on adapting to climate change kicks the real challenge down the road</a>
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<h2>Food producers</h2>
<p>COP28 was applauded for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/17/cop28-sustainable-agriculture-food-greenhouse-gases">finally talking about food</a>.</p>
<p>How the world produces food, how it gets it to people and how it’s disposed of (or wasted) accounts for <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00225-9">one-third</a> of greenhouse gas emissions. Roughly <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/1795/2022/">80%</a> of food production is powered by fossil fuels and agriculture is the <a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/2021-02/2021-02-03-food-system-biodiversity-loss-benton-et-al_0.pdf">leading cause</a> of biodiversity loss. This was the first climate summit to get more than 130 countries to acknowledge that agriculture must “<a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/food-and-agriculture">urgently adapt and transform</a>”.</p>
<p>More than 200 African academics and civil society leaders are worried about what that transformation might entail.</p>
<p>“The call was for COP28 leaders to commit to <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28s-commitment-to-transforming-farming-and-food-systems-is-an-insult-to-africans-219619">separating food systems from the fossil fuels</a></strong>, antibiotics, preservatives, pesticides, herbicides and artificial fertilisers they are currently centred on,” says Florian Kroll, a PhD candidate in agrarian studies at the University of the Western Cape.</p>
<p>Kroll says COP28 did not debate how to curb the powerful monopolies keeping agriculture hooked on these fuels and chemicals. Without structural reforms to conventional agriculture, expanding its prevalence in Africa will only accelerate environmental destruction, he says.</p>
<p>The COP28 food statement also calls for partnerships between states and corporations to solve agriculture’s climate footprint. “This is especially problematic,” Kroll says. “Public-private partnerships allow corporations to influence government policy to their benefit, at the expense of local industries, the poor and the unemployed.”</p>
<p>In the food reforms envisaged at COP28, the World Trade Organisation would remain at the “core” of food distribution. This poses another big problem for traditional farmers, Kroll says:</p>
<p>“[The World Trade Organisation] pushes developing countries to extract finite mineral resources and grow export crops for global trade. Cheap imports undermine local industry and livelihoods.”</p>
<p>“Governments should instead promote local food production with short value chains and strengthen fair trade between African countries,” he adds.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28s-commitment-to-transforming-farming-and-food-systems-is-an-insult-to-africans-219619">COP28's commitment to transforming farming and food systems is an insult to Africans</a>
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<h2>Wildlife and ecosystems</h2>
<p>Just last year, the world was celebrating a landmark deal to protect 30% of Earth’s land and sea for the benefit of biodiversity by 2030.</p>
<p>Even with all that space, species will have <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-if-warming-approaches-2-c-a-trickle-of-extinctions-will-become-a-flood-219182">nowhere to hide from rising temperatures</a></strong> says Alex Pigot, a principal research fellow at UCL’s Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research.</p>
<p>“Our world has warmed by roughly 1.2°C since the pre-industrial period,” he says.</p>
<p>“Biodiversity is feeling the heat in all ecosystems and regions, from mountain tops to ocean depths.”</p>
<p>Tropical coral reefs once bleached rarely, Pigot says. Now, this vivid display of poor health and stress happens almost annually. Here the world has a preview of the devastation that is still in store for other ecosystems – and ultimately, us.</p>
<p>“If all national plans to cut emissions are fulfilled, the world would still be on track for <a href="https://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/43922;jsessionid=B45766E5C515BEBCE6F810BB49227C63">2.5°C-2.9°C</a> of global warming by the end of the century,” Pigot says.</p>
<p>“As the thermal thresholds of more and more species are crossed, the capacity for ecosystems to adapt – as well as the societies that depend on them – will diminish.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-if-warming-approaches-2-c-a-trickle-of-extinctions-will-become-a-flood-219182">Climate change: if warming approaches 2°C, a trickle of extinctions will become a flood</a>
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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Our expert roundup of who left the latest UN climate summit happy and who went home empty handed.Jack Marley, Environment + Energy Editor, UK editionLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1694342021-10-20T17:19:04Z2021-10-20T17:19:04ZWhat is COP26? Here’s how global climate negotiations work and what’s expected from the Glasgow summit<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427135/original/file-20211019-20-1fljk4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=125%2C88%2C1663%2C1152&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">U.N. climate summits bring together representatives of almost every country.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/unfccc/49216979356/in/album-72157711934280806/">UNFCCC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/que-es-la-cop26-explicamos-como-funcionan-las-negociaciones-sobre-cambio-climatico-y-que-se-espera-de-la-cumbre-de-glasgow-170478">Leer en español</a></em></p>
<p>Over two weeks in November, world leaders and national negotiators will meet in Scotland to discuss what to do about climate change. It’s a complex process that can be hard to make sense of from the outside, but it’s how international law and institutions help solve problems that no single country can fix on its own.</p>
<p>I worked for the United Nations for several years as a law and policy adviser and have been involved in international negotiations. Here’s what’s happening behind closed doors and why people are concerned that COP26 might not meet its goals.</p>
<h2>What is COP26?</h2>
<p>In 1992, countries agreed to an international treaty called <a href="https://unfccc.int/process/the-convention/history-of-the-convention#eq-1">the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a> (UNFCCC), which set ground rules and expectations for global cooperation on combating climate change. It was the first time the majority of nations formally recognized the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-convention/what-is-the-united-nations-framework-convention-on-climate-change">need to control greenhouse gas emissions</a>, which cause global warming that drives climate change.</p>
<p>That treaty has since been updated, including in 2015 when nations signed the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris climate agreement</a>. That agreement set the goal of limiting global warming to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 F), and preferably to 1.5 C (2.7 F), <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">to avoid catastrophic climate change</a>.</p>
<p>COP26 stands for the 26th Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC. The “<a href="https://unfccc.int/process/parties-non-party-stakeholders/parties-convention-and-observer-states">parties</a>” are the 196 countries that ratified the treaty plus the European Union. <a href="https://ukcop26.org/">The United Kingdom, partnering with Italy,</a> is hosting COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland, from Oct. 31 through Nov. 12, 2021, after a one-year postponement due to the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
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<h2>Why are world leaders so focused on climate change?</h2>
<p>The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s latest report, released in August 2021, warns in its strongest terms yet that <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf">human activities have unequivocally</a> warmed the planet, and that climate change is now widespread, rapid and intensifying.</p>
<p>The IPCC’s scientists explain how <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-relentless-seemingly-small-shifts-have-big-consequences-166139">climate change has been fueling</a> extreme <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-water-cycle-is-intensifying-as-the-climate-warms-ipcc-report-warns-that-means-more-intense-storms-and-flooding-165590">weather events and flooding</a>, severe <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-heat-waves-in-a-warming-world-dont-just-break-records-they-shatter-them-164919">heat waves and droughts</a>, loss and <a href="https://theconversation.com/protecting-half-of-the-planet-is-the-best-way-to-fight-climate-change-and-biodiversity-loss-weve-mapped-the-key-places-to-do-it-144908">extinction of species</a>, and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-climate-report-profound-changes-are-underway-in-earths-oceans-and-ice-a-lead-author-explains-what-the-warnings-mean-165588">melting of ice sheets and rising of sea levels</a>. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres called the report a <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/08/1097362">“code red for humanity.”</a></p>
<p>Enough greenhouse gas emissions are already in the atmosphere, and they stay there long enough, that <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/#SPM">even under the most ambitious scenario</a> of countries quickly reducing their emissions, the world will experience rising temperatures through at least mid-century.</p>
<p>However, there remains a narrow window of opportunity. If countries can cut global emissions to “<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-companies-pledge-net-zero-emissions-to-fight-climate-change-but-what-does-that-really-mean-166547">net zero</a>” by 2050, that could bring warming back to under 1.5 C in the second half of the 21st century. How to get closer to that course is what leaders and negotiators are discussing.</p>
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<img alt="Guterres standing at a podium with #TimeForAction on the screen behind him" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427131/original/file-20211019-24-p2pqiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2048%2C1361&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427131/original/file-20211019-24-p2pqiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427131/original/file-20211019-24-p2pqiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427131/original/file-20211019-24-p2pqiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427131/original/file-20211019-24-p2pqiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427131/original/file-20211019-24-p2pqiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427131/original/file-20211019-24-p2pqiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres called the latest climate science findings a ‘code red for humanity.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/unfccc/49214530846/in/album-72157711934280806/">UNFCCC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What happens at COP26?</h2>
<p>During the first days of the conference, around 120 heads of state, like U.S. President Joe Biden, and their representatives will gather to demonstrate their political commitment to slowing climate change.</p>
<p>Once the heads of state depart, country delegations, often led by ministers of environment, engage in days of negotiations, events and exchanges <a href="https://gizmodo.com/your-guide-to-cop26-the-world-s-most-important-climate-1847845039">to adopt their positions, make new pledges and join new initiatives</a>. These interactions are based on months of prior discussions, policy papers and proposals prepared by groups of states, U.N. staff and other experts.</p>
<p>Nongovernmental organizations and business leaders also attend the conference, and <a href="https://www.ed.ac.uk/sustainability/cop26/what-is-cop26">COP26 has a public side</a> with sessions focused on topics such as the impact of climate change on small island states, forests or agriculture, as well as exhibitions and other events.</p>
<p>The meeting ends with an outcome text that all countries agree to. Guterres <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/12/1053561">publicly expressed disappointment</a> with the COP25 outcome, and there are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/27/cop26-climate-talks-will-not-fulfil-aims-of-paris-agreement-key-players-warn">signs of trouble</a> heading into COP26.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Greta Thunberg raises an eyebrow during a session at COP25" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427139/original/file-20211019-16-1v9qz6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427139/original/file-20211019-16-1v9qz6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427139/original/file-20211019-16-1v9qz6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427139/original/file-20211019-16-1v9qz6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427139/original/file-20211019-16-1v9qz6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427139/original/file-20211019-16-1v9qz6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427139/original/file-20211019-16-1v9qz6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Celebrities like youth climate activist Greta Thunberg add public pressure on world leaders.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/unfccc/49193291713">UNFCCC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What is COP26 expected to accomplish?</h2>
<p>Countries are required under the Paris Agreement to update their national climate action plans every five years, including at COP26. This year, they’re expected to have ambitious targets through 2030. These are known as <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs">nationally determined contributions, or NDCs</a>.</p>
<p>The Paris Agreement requires countries to report their NDCs, but it allows them leeway in determining how they reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The initial <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/which-countries-will-strengthen-their-national-climate-commitments-ndcs-2020">set of emission reduction targets in 2015 </a>was far too weak to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.</p>
<p>One key goal of COP26 is to ratchet up these targets to reach <a href="https://ukcop26.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/COP26-Explained.pdf">net zero carbon emissions</a> by the middle of the century.</p>
<p>Another aim of COP26 is <a href="https://ukcop26.org/cop26-goals/finance/">to increase climate finance</a> to help poorer countries transition to clean energy and adapt to climate change. This is an important issue of justice for many developing countries <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/climate-change-burden-unfairly-borne-by-worlds-poorest-countries/a-40726908">whose people bear the largest burden</a> from climate change but have contributed least to it. Wealthy countries promised in 2009 to contribute <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/06/1094762">$100 billion a year</a> by 2020 to help developing nations, <a href="https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/statement-from-oecd-secretary-general-mathias-cormann-on-climate-finance-in-2019.htm">a goal that has not been reached</a>. The <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/us-seeks-double-climate-change-aid-developing-nations-biden-2021-09-21/">U.S.</a>, U.K. and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/eu-pledges-extra-4-billion-euros-international-climate-finance-2021-09-15/">EU</a>, among the largest historic greenhouse emitters, are increasing their financial commitments, and banks, businesses, insurers and private investors are being asked to do more.</p>
<p><a href="https://ukcop26.org/cop26-goals/">Other objectives</a> include phasing out coal use and generating solutions that preserve, restore or regenerate natural carbon sinks, such as forests.</p>
<p>Another challenge that has derailed past COPs is agreeing on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/11/what-is-cop26-and-why-does-it-matter-the-complete-guide">implementing a carbon trading system</a> outlined in the Paris Agreement.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man stands in a street market smoking, with cooling towers for a power plant behind him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427370/original/file-20211019-15-w8tgxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427370/original/file-20211019-15-w8tgxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427370/original/file-20211019-15-w8tgxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427370/original/file-20211019-15-w8tgxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427370/original/file-20211019-15-w8tgxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427370/original/file-20211019-15-w8tgxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427370/original/file-20211019-15-w8tgxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chinese street vendors sell vegetables outside a state-owned coal-fired power plant in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/chinese-street-vendors-sell-vegetables-at-a-local-market-news-photo/800065596?adppopup=true">Kevin Frayer/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Are countries on track to meet the international climate goals?</h2>
<p><a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2021_08_adv_1.pdf">The U.N. warned</a> in September 2021 that countries’ revised targets were too weak and would leave the world on pace to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58600723">warm 2.7 C</a> (4.9 F) by the end of the century. However, governments are also facing another challenge this fall that could affect how they respond: <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/energy-crisis-fossil-fuel-investment-renewables-gas-oil-prices-coal-wind-solar-hydro-power-grid-11634497531">Energy supply shortages</a> have left Europe and China with price spikes for natural gas, coal and oil.</p>
<p><a href="https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/pages/Party.aspx?party=CHN">China</a> – the world’s largest emitter – <a href="https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/pages/Party.aspx?party=CHN&prototype=1">submitted an updated NDC</a> on Oct. 28 with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/28/climate/china-climate-pledge.html">little change</a> from pledges it announced almost a year ago. Major fossil fuel producers such as <a href="https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/pages/Party.aspx?party=RUS">Russia</a> and <a href="https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/pages/Party.aspx?party=AUS">Australia</a> seem unwilling to strengthen their commitments. <a href="https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/pages/Party.aspx?party=SAU">Saudi Arabia</a> strengthened its targets but <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2021/10/25/saudi-pledges-net-zero-2060-no-oil-exit-plan/">doesn’t count exports of oil and gas</a>, which it says it will continue producing. <a href="https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/pages/Party.aspx?party=IND">India</a> – a critical player as the second-largest consumer, producer and importer of coal globally – has also not yet committed.</p>
<p>Other developing nations such as Indonesia, Malaysia, South Africa and Mexico are important. So is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/14/amazon-rainforest-will-collapse-if-bolsonaro-remains-president">Brazil, which, under Jair Bolsonaro’s</a> watch, has increased deforestation of the Amazon – the world’s largest rainforest and crucial for biodiversity and removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.</p>
<h2>What happens if COP26 doesn’t meet its goals?</h2>
<p>Many insiders believe that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/27/cop26-climate-talks-will-not-fulfil-aims-of-paris-agreement-key-players-warn">COP26 won’t reach its goal</a> of having strong enough commitments from countries to cut global greenhouse gas emissions 45% by 2030. That means the world won’t be on a smooth course for reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 and the goal of keeping warming under 1.5 C.</p>
<p>But organizers maintain that keeping warming under 1.5 C is still possible. Former Secretary of State <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-biden-and-kerry-could-rebuild-americas-global-climate-leadership-150120">John Kerry, who has been leading</a> the U.S. negotiations, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/11/john-kerry-cop26-climate-summit-starting-line-rest-of-decade?utm_term=8901953fa850909d49e2c2322006a128&utm_campaign=GuardianTodayUS&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=GTUS_email">remains hopeful</a> that enough countries will create momentum for others to strengthen their reduction targets by 2025.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Line chart showing pledges and current policies far from a trajectory that could meet the 1.5C goal." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427137/original/file-20211019-27-15b72pt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427137/original/file-20211019-27-15b72pt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427137/original/file-20211019-27-15b72pt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427137/original/file-20211019-27-15b72pt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427137/original/file-20211019-27-15b72pt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427137/original/file-20211019-27-15b72pt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427137/original/file-20211019-27-15b72pt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The world is not on track to meet the Paris goals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/">Climate Action Tracker</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The cost of failure is astronomical. Studies have shown that <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">the difference between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius</a> can mean the submersion of small island states, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/coral-reefs-are-dying-as-climate-change-decimates-ocean-ecosystems-vital-to-fish-and-humans-164743">death of coral reefs</a>, extreme heat waves, flooding and wildfires, and pervasive crop failure.</p>
<p>That translates into many premature deaths, more mass migration, major economic losses, large swaths of unlivable land and violent conflict over resources and food – what the U.N. secretary-general has called <a href="https://www.un.org/sg/en/node/259808">“a hellish future.”</a></p>
<p>[<em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-important">Get The Conversation’s most important politics headlines, in our Politics Weekly newsletter</a>.</em>]</p>
<p><em>This article was updated Oct. 29, 2021, with China and Saudi Arabia submitting their NDCs.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169434/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shelley Inglis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A former UN adviser explains what happens at climate summits like COP26 and why people fear this one won’t meet its goals.Shelley Inglis, Executive Director, University of Dayton Human Rights Center, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1675092021-10-06T10:59:39Z2021-10-06T10:59:39ZCOP26: what’s the point of this year’s UN climate summit in Glasgow?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424238/original/file-20211001-16-19aupn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5184%2C3453&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/july-19-2020-brazil-this-photo-1779569675">Rafapress/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>About <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/environment/which-leaders-will-attend-cop26-full-list-of-country-heads-visiting-glasgow-for-climate-change-summit-3392176">25,000 people</a> are expected to travel to Glasgow this autumn for the annual meeting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). </p>
<p>This will be the 26th Conference of the Parties, also known as COP26, and all 197 states which are parties to the UNFCCC are supposed to be represented. As hosts of COP26, <a href="https://ukcop26.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/COP26-Explained.pdf">the UK</a> has called for attendees to submit more ambitious emissions reductions targets for 2030 that will help the world reach net zero by mid-century, to raise contributions to climate adaptation and mitigation funds and to finalise the rules which would govern the implementation of the Paris climate agreement made in 2015.</p>
<p>This round of the UN climate talks was originally supposed to take place in 2020, but it was <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/cop26-postponed">postponed</a> because of the pandemic. Around the main talks, from October 31 to November 12 2021, Scotland’s largest city will host a series of meetings and events between world leaders, scientists and civil society groups.</p>
<p>In a year plagued by catastrophic floods, wildfires and heatwaves, the need to act on climate change has never been more urgent. So what will the negotiators in Glasgow be debating?</p>
<h2>Up for discussion</h2>
<p>Many of the issues on the table have been left unresolved since the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement/key-aspects-of-the-paris-agreement">landmark Paris Agreement</a> was concluded. This committed most of the world’s countries to try and limit global warming to well below 2°C, and to aim for 1.5°C.</p>
<p>A persistent source of disagreement concerns how international carbon markets should work – Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. These markets would allow countries to receive credits for reducing emissions in excess of their targets, which could then be sold to countries struggling to meet their own commitments. </p>
<p>Implementing carbon markets is <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-q-and-a-how-article-6-carbon-markets-could-make-or-break-the-paris-agreement">very difficult</a>. Developing countries worry that these markets will allow rich countries to avoid painful emissions reductions at home while making marginal contributions to abate emissions abroad through buying credits. Rich countries argue that developing countries could use the same emission cuts they sell as credits towards their own domestic reduction targets, effectively counting them twice. </p>
<p>Carrying over old credits accumulated under the previous system of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol might also allow emerging economies such as Brazil and India, and carbon-intensive economies such as Australia and Russia, to meet future reduction targets without much additional effort. This clashes with the spirit of the Paris Agreement to increase ambition over time. </p>
<p>Difficult negotiations are also expected over how to support poorer countries to develop sustainably. The Paris Agreement recognised the existential threats to climate-vulnerable countries from mounting floods and droughts. <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/explainers/what-is-climate-change-loss-and-damage/">Loss and damage provisions</a> in Article 8 of the Paris Agreement promise poorer countries technical and financial assistance, yet how to put these into practice remains unclear.</p>
<p>Another contentious issue will be the delivery of <a href="https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/100_billion_climate_finance_report.pdf">US$100 billion (£74 billion) annually</a> in climate finance. Developing countries need this money to kickstart a green transition, but rich countries have consistently <a href="https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/statement-from-oecd-secretary-general-mathias-cormann-on-climate-finance-in-2019.htm">failed</a> to provide it at the level agreed in 2010. While President Biden’s recent announcement to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/us-seeks-double-climate-change-aid-developing-nations-biden-2021-09-21/">double US contributions</a> might mobilise other major economies, a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/20/rich-countries-not-providing-poor-with-pledged-climate-finance-analysis-says">substantial shortfall</a> will remain.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man wades through a flooded street." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424240/original/file-20211001-23-20542.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424240/original/file-20211001-23-20542.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424240/original/file-20211001-23-20542.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424240/original/file-20211001-23-20542.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424240/original/file-20211001-23-20542.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424240/original/file-20211001-23-20542.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424240/original/file-20211001-23-20542.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Poor countries need financial aid to cope with the effects of climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/man-walks-through-flash-flood-wawa-1717915627">Oluwafemi Dawodu/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Spanners in the works</h2>
<p>The list of issues before climate diplomats at COP26 is long, and the stakes are high. But the biggest complications might arise from the context in which the negotiations are taking place. </p>
<p>A lack of vaccines and high travel costs threaten the prospect of an inclusive event in Glasgow. Delegations from poor countries have warned that these issues make it <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/cop26-glasgow-climate-talks-poor-countries-difficult-access/">difficult to travel</a> to the climate talks. </p>
<p>Poor attendance is not guaranteed to derail talks, as several details can be ironed out remotely. But it’s disproportionately attendees from poorer countries who will struggle to access the event, potentially resulting in lower scrutiny of the summit’s outcomes.</p>
<p>COP26 also comes at a time when international relations are strained. The fallout from Brexit continues to poison the atmosphere between the UK and the EU. The US and China, accounting for more than <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions#co2-emissions-by-region">40% of global emissions</a>, are embroiled in a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-04-25/u-s-china-sea-war-could-spread-to-japan-australia-india">standoff</a> in the South China Sea. The recently negotiated AUKUS security partnership between Australia, the UK and the US, which seeks to counterbalance Chinese power in the Asia-Pacific region and has angered the French, could also <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/16/aukus-pact-dash-hopes-china-emissions-deal-cop26-climate">dash hopes</a> of cooperation at COP26.</p>
<p>Perhaps the biggest obstacle to progress lies not in Glasgow, but in each nation’s capitals. Each country is fighting a domestic battle that will determine the international credibility of COP26. </p>
<p>National withdrawal from the UNFCCC has happened before. Canada’s 2011 exit from the Kyoto Protocol and the US’s temporary 2017 departure from the Paris Agreement had domestic causes, and domestic politics have long been the decisive factor for a country’s climate commitments at COP meetings. </p>
<p>The framework of the Paris Agreement recognises this by allowing governments to make climate pledges that can vary from country to country, as long as national climate action <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-ratchet-mechanism-within-the-paris-climate-deal">increases in ambition</a> over time. But a 2020 <a href="https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020">UN report</a> found that current government pledges put the world on track for 3°C of warming. Ambition is nowhere near where it needs to be.</p>
<p>Yet, there is hope. While many government proposals risk being <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1JodDc6wG8">empty words</a>, the latest spike in European gas prices and the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-58709456">recent UK fuel shortages</a> provide incentives for some governments, including the UK as COP host, to fast-track elements of their green growth strategies by electrifying home heating and transport. Similarly, the success of the Green Party in the recent German elections, with 14.8% of votes, sends an important signal of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/28/how-german-coalition-wrangling-could-affect-cop26-mood">public support for climate action</a> in a major economy. </p>
<p>As much as we should pay close attention to the UN climate talks, we should never forget about the importance of national climate policy and the role of voters’ attitudes for shaping leadership <a href="https://direct.mit.edu/glep/article/20/4/28/95070/Beliefs-About-Consequences-from-Climate-Action">on the world stage</a>.</p>
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<p><strong>This story is part of The Conversation’s coverage on COP26, the Glasgow climate conference, by experts from around the world.</strong>
<br><em>Amid a rising tide of climate news and stories, The Conversation is here to clear the air and make sure you get information you can trust. <a href="https://page.theconversation.com/cop26-glasgow-2021-climate-change-summit/"><strong>More.</strong></a></em> </p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167509/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Countries are expected to commit to more ambitious targets for 2030, but how they will achieve them is still up for debate.Federica Genovese, Senior Lecturer in Government, University of EssexPatrick Bayer, Senior Lecturer in International Relations, University of Strathclyde Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1467622020-10-13T03:46:50Z2020-10-13T03:46:50ZClimate explained: does a delay in COP26 climate talks hit our efforts to reduce carbon emissions?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362617/original/file-20201009-23-1wuab5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=164%2C455%2C3629%2C2070&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
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<p><em><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/nz/topics/climate-explained-74664">Climate Explained</a></strong> is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change.</em> </p>
<p><em>If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to <a href="mailto:climate.change@stuff.co.nz">climate.change@stuff.co.nz</a></em></p>
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<p><strong>Will the delay of the COP26 UN climate negotiations impact international action to decarbonise? Would catch-up talks help? Could the talks collapse because countries stopped paying their dues?</strong></p>
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<p>The 26th Conference of the Parties — better known as <a href="https://www.ukcop26.org">COP26</a> — is the United Nations climate change conference that was scheduled to be held in Glasgow, UK, during the first two weeks of November 2020.</p>
<p>But in April this year the COVID-19 pandemic led to the event being <a href="https://www.ukcop26.org/cop26-postponement/">postponed</a>, then later <a href="https://www.ukcop26.org/new-dates-agreed-for-cop26-united-nations-climate-change-conference/">rescheduled</a> to November 2021.</p>
<p>That’s a 12-month delay on a meeting of representatives from nearly 200 countries, including <a href="https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/environment/climate-change/">New Zealand</a>, charged with monitoring and implementing the UN’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (<a href="https://unfccc.int">UNFCCC</a>).</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-does-building-and-expanding-motorways-really-reduce-congestion-and-emissions-147024">Climate explained: does building and expanding motorways really reduce congestion and emissions?</a>
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<p>It will be crucial to make progress towards the goals of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465">2015 Paris Agreement</a>, which aims to limit average global warming to 1.5-2°C this century, relative to the 1890s (the so-called “preindustrial period”). </p>
<h2>Preventing ‘Hothouse Earth’</h2>
<p>The temperature target agreed in Paris was carefully chosen. <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252" title="Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene">Numerous scientific studies</a> show an increase beyond 2°C would activate self-reinforcing feedbacks in the climate system (such as a weakening of ocean and land carbon sinks). This would tip our planet into an extreme “<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45084144">Hothouse Earth</a>” that could persist for millennia, regardless of what happens with future emissions. </p>
<p>To avoid this scenario, the legally binding UN agreement encourages all participating nations to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases as soon as possible.</p>
<p>As part of the Paris Agreement, developed countries agreed to provide, from 2020, US$100 billion to support developing countries to mitigate and adapt to climate change.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the current trajectory of global emissions is on track to increase global average temperatures by <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org">more than 2°C and possibly as much as 4°C</a>, far exceeding the target set in Paris.</p>
<p>One recent <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15453-z" title="Self-preservation strategy for approaching global warming targets in the post-Paris Agreement era">study</a> put the economic costs of failing to meet the Paris goals up to an eye-watering US$600 trillion by 2100, effectively <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6345/1362">keeping the planet in permanent recession</a>. </p>
<p>National representatives are expected to arrive in Glasgow next year with substantially strengthened plans to reduce emissions and meet their commitments to support developing countries.</p>
<h2>The pandemic and emissions</h2>
<p>There is no doubt the gathering of 30,000 delegates in Glasgow will come at a time of ongoing uncertainty about COVID-19 and the largest shock to the global economy since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The pandemic is a game changer but it’s not yet clear whether this is good or bad for reducing emissions.</p>
<p>Many of us have made substantial cuts to our travel and embraced remote work and online video chat, particularly at the height of the pandemic. Google and Apple data suggest more than half of the world’s population <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0883-0" title="Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19">reduced their travel by more than half in April</a>.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, greenhouse gas emissions have remained stubbornly high. Daily global carbon dioxide emissions <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0797-x" title="Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement">fell by as much as 17% in early April</a>. But as the world’s economy started to recover, emissions bounced back, <a href="https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=10361">according to the UN</a>, with 2020 likely experiencing only a 4-7% decline in carbon dioxide relative to 2019.</p>
<p>To meet the Paris target and limit warming to 1.5°C, the world needs to achieve <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/cut-global-emissions-by-76-percent-every-year-for-next-decade-to-meet-15degc-paris-target-un-report">cuts of 7.6% year-on-year for the next decade</a>, and effectively reach zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<h2>More work to do</h2>
<p>The sobering reality is nations have a lot more work to do to decarbonise their economies. But for many national governments, the thorny question is how to achieve more ambitious emission targets while at the same time rebuilding economies battered by COVID-19. </p>
<p>Although the UN has a <a href="https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/db200402.doc.htm">large financial shortfall</a> of US$711 million (at the end of 2019) due to some nations failing to pay their annual dues — with the US, Brazil and Saudi Arabia the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/ga/contributions/honourroll.shtml">worst offenders</a> — there is no suggestion of cancelling the COP26 meeting next year.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/08/26/extra-un-climate-talks-mooted-2021-help-negotiators-catch/">Catch-up talks have indeed been mooted</a> but so far nothing has been publicly announced. That’s not to say there aren’t intensive negotiations and commitments being made in advance of the COP26 meeting in Glasgow. And there are some positive signs. </p>
<h2>A pandemic recovery</h2>
<p>As the world moves towards an economic recovery after the pandemic, some major economies are tilting towards a green stimulus and public commitments to reduce fossil fuel investments.</p>
<p>For example, China is the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/china?country=%7ECHN">world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide</a> and took the opportunity at the UN General Assembly 75th anniversary last month to announce it will reach peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54256826">carbon neutrality by 2060</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/china-just-stunned-the-world-with-its-step-up-on-climate-action-and-the-implications-for-australia-may-be-huge-147268">China just stunned the world with its step-up on climate action – and the implications for Australia may be huge</a>
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<p>Arguably more ambitious is the proposed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/09/what-is-the-european-green-deal-and-will-it-really-cost-1tn">European Green Deal</a> announced in late 2019. It aims to slash greenhouse gas emissions by half over the next decade and make Europe the first carbon-neutral continent.</p>
<p>To help achieve this, a <a href="https://www.bcg.com/en-au/publications/2020/how-an-eu-carbon-border-tax-could-jolt-world-trade">carbon tax</a> is proposed for imports into the European Union. This threatens to have far-reaching implications for European trading partners such as New Zealand and Australia.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-are-we-doomed-if-we-dont-manage-to-curb-emissions-by-2030-143526">Climate explained: are we doomed if we don't manage to curb emissions by 2030?</a>
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<p>In parallel to these government announcements, industry is also making <a href="https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2018/11/29/how-to-get-the-carbon-out-of-industry">commitments to decarbonise</a>. The multi-trillion-dollar financial sector is adding pressure by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/14/blackrock-says-climate-crisis-will-now-guide-its-investments">focusing on companies at risk from climate change</a> and identifying so-called “<a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/explainers/what-are-stranded-assets/">stranded assets</a>”. </p>
<p>These pronouncements will help boost the negotiations for more stringent cuts to emissions as delegates prepare for the COP26 meeting in Glasgow next year. This can only put more pressure on all nations to be more ambitious.</p>
<p>Attention will inevitably focus on the world’s largest historic emitter, the US, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/27/us-paris-climate-accord-exit-what-it-means">which is formally leaving</a> the Paris Agreement on November 4 this year, the day after the 2020 presidential election. </p>
<p>So the COP26 won’t collapse, but the year’s delay to the meeting may give the world the breathing space it so desperately needs to realise the ambition of the Paris Agreement and avoid the worst of climate change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146762/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Turney is a scientific advisor and owns shares in cleatnech company CarbonScape (<a href="http://www.carbonscape.com">www.carbonscape.com</a>) and receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>The coronavirus pandemic caused the UN’s annual climate conference to be postponed by a year, but it was also responsible for a drop in carbon emissions. Is it enough and will it last?Christian Turney, Professor of Earth Science and Climate Change, Director of Chronos 14Carbon-Cycle Facility, Director of PANGEA Research Centre, and UNSW Node Director of ARC Centre for Excellence in Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1451262020-08-27T10:57:33Z2020-08-27T10:57:33ZIPCC: the dirty tricks climate scientists faced in three decades since first report<p>Thirty years ago, in a small Swedish city called Sundsvall, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/fourth-session-report.pdf">first major report</a>.</p>
<p>Even then, the major dilemmas facing those who sought rapid action were clear. An account by <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?redir_esc=y&id=9lv8c2LkYm4C&q=pearlman#v=snippet&q=pearlman&f=false">Jeremy Leggett</a>, who had thrown in a well-paid job as a geologist for Shell to become Greenpeace’s climate campaigner, reported the events of that first summit, including an encounter with coal industry lobbyist <a href="https://www.desmog.co.uk/directory/vocabulary/19629">Don Pearlman</a>.</p>
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<p>They had their heads down, copies of the draft negotiating text for the IPCC final report open in front of them. Pearlman was pointing at the text, and talking in a forceful growl… As I walked past, I saw him pointing to a particular paragraph and I heard him say, quite distinctly, ‘if we can cut a deal here…’</p>
<p>Although it seems so naïve now, I was shocked.</p>
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<p>Days later, a delegate from the Pacific island of Kiribati pleaded with the conference for a breakthrough in the negotiations.</p>
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<p>Concerted international action is needed to drastically decrease our consumption of fossil fuels. The time to start is now. In the low-lying nations, the threat… of global warming and sea level rise is frightening.“ </p>
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<p>He paused before concluding.</p>
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<p>I hope this meeting will not fail us. Thank you.</p>
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<p>Shortly afterwards the US delegation "tabled a catalogue of attempted emasculations” of the text. Along with the Saudi and Soviet delegations, representatives of the richest and most powerful country in the world “chipped away at the draft, watering down the sense of alarm in the wording, beefing up the aura of uncertainty”.</p>
<p>It would be a painful three decades for people anxious to see action on climate change. For the scientists investigating the problem, it would often be a personal battle against powerful interests.</p>
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<img alt="A group of people cross a shallow lagoon at dusk in the tropics." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355048/original/file-20200827-18-ej49u2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355048/original/file-20200827-18-ej49u2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355048/original/file-20200827-18-ej49u2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355048/original/file-20200827-18-ej49u2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355048/original/file-20200827-18-ej49u2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355048/original/file-20200827-18-ej49u2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355048/original/file-20200827-18-ej49u2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Kiribati is an island nation that is at risk of disappearing due to sea level rise.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/group-people-crosses-lagoon-tarawa-kiribati-669501271">Nava Fedaeff/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>The path to the summit</h2>
<p>The accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, caused primarily by the burning of fossil fuels, had been worrying scientists since the 1970s. The discovery of the “ozone hole” above Antarctica had given atmospheric scientists enormous credibility and clout among the public, and an international treaty banning chlorofluorocarbons, the chemicals causing the problem, was swiftly signed. </p>
<p>The Reagan White House <a href="http://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2007/11/01/ipcc_beginnings/">worried</a> that a treaty on CO₂ might happen as quickly, and set about ensuring the official scientific advice guiding leaders at the negotiations was under at least <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1023/A:1005315532386.pdf">partial control</a>. So emerged the intergovernmental – rather than international – panel on climate change, in 1988.</p>
<p>Already before Sundsvall, in 1989, figures in the automotive and fossil fuel industries of the US had set up the Global Climate Coalition to argue against rapid action and to <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Robert_Brulle/publication/336695509_Networks_of_Opposition_A_Structural_Analysis_of_US_Climate_Change_Countermovement_Coalitions_1989-2015/links/5eb0795b299bf18b959500c2/Networks-of-Opposition-A-Structural-Analysis-of-US-Climate-Change-Countermovement-Coalitions-1989-2015.pdf">cast doubt</a> on the evidence. Alongside thinktanks, such as the <a href="https://www.desmogblog.com/george-c-marshall-institute">George Marshall Institute</a>, and trade bodies, such as the <a href="https://www.westernfuels.org/">Western Fuels Association</a>, it kept up a steady stream of publishing in the media – including a <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20070820002929/http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20122975/site/newsweek/page/0/">movie</a> – to discredit the science.</p>
<p>But their efforts to discourage political commitment were only partially successful. The scientists held firm, and a climate treaty was agreed in 1992. And so attention turned to the scientists themselves. </p>
<h2>The Serengeti strategy</h2>
<p>In 1996, there were sustained attacks on climate scientist Ben Santer, who had been <a href="https://www.skepticalscience.com/ben-santer-1995-ipcc-report.htm">responsible</a> for synthesising text in the IPCC’s second assessment report. He was accused of having “tampered with” wording and somehow “twisting” the intent of IPCC authors by Fred Seitz of the Global Climate Coalition.</p>
<p>In the late 1990s, Michael Mann, whose famous “<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/05/the-hockey-stick-the-most-controversial-chart-in-science-explained/275753/">hockey stick</a>” diagram of global temperatures was a key part of the third assessment report, came under fire from right-wing thinktanks and even the <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/legal-harassment-michael-mann">Attorney General of Virginia</a>. Mann called this attempt to pick on scientists perceived to be vulnerable to pressure “the Serengeti strategy”.</p>
<p>As Mann himself <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7NaGIQ3j3b0">wrote</a></p>
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<p>By singling out a sole scientist, it is possible for the forces of “anti-science” to bring many more resources to bear on one individual, exerting enormous pressure from multiple directions at once, making defence difficult. It is similar to what happens when a group of lions on the Serengeti seek out a vulnerable individual zebra at the edge of a herd.</p>
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<p>As the evidence became ever more compelling, the attacks on scientists escalated.</p>
<p>In late 2009, just before the Copenhagen climate summit, emails among climate scientists were hacked and released. They were carefully selected to make it seem as if scientists were guilty of scaremongering. The so-called “climategate” scandal was not to blame for Copenhagen’s failure, but it kept climate deniers energised and helped muddy the waters enough to make it seem as if legitimate doubt persisted over the scientific consensus.</p>
<h2>What next?</h2>
<p>Thanks to COVID-19, the next IPCC assessment report probably <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/08/13/un-climate-science-report-likely-delayed-beyond-2021-glasgow-summit/#:%7E:text=The%20expected%20publication%20in%202021,2020%20because%20of%20the%20pandemic.">won’t be delivered</a> before the delayed conference in Glasgow at the end of 2021. There probably won’t be anything in it that tells us more than what we already know – CO₂ levels are rising, the consequences are piling up, and campaigns for delaying meaningful action have been spectacularly successful for the last 30 years.</p>
<p>Some scientists, including Columbia University professor James Hansen, argue that the agonising efforts of scientists to avoid provoking accusations of alarmism have led to an innate optimism bias. The official science reported by the IPCC may in some cases be a cautious underestimate. It’s likely worse – much worse – than we think.</p>
<p>If the last three decades have taught the international community anything, it’s that “the science” is not a single, settled entity which, presented properly, will spur everyone to action. There are no shortcuts to the technological, economic, political and cultural changes needed to tackle climate change. That was true 30 years ago in Sundsvall. The only thing that has changed is the time in which we have left to do anything.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145126/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marc Hudson is affiliated with Climate Emergency Manchester, which is trying to get the City Council to live up to its fine words on climate action.</span></em></p>Three decades of growing scientific certainty about climate change have yielded little progress.Marc Hudson, Research Associate in Social Movements, Keele UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1448702020-08-25T20:07:49Z2020-08-25T20:07:49ZUnder Biden, the US would no longer be a climate pariah – and that leaves Scott Morrison exposed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354497/original/file-20200825-14-dx8yoj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C0%2C4949%2C3299&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrew Harnik/AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>US Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is campaigning on a platform that puts climate action front and centre. At the Democratic National Convention last week, he outlined a <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/joe-biden-unveils-green-jobs-and-infrastructure-plan-during-2020-election.html">US$2 trillion clean energy and infrastructure plan</a>, a commitment to rejoin the Paris climate agreement and a goal of <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/511889-bidens-climate-fight-is-just-beginning">net-zero emissions</a> by 2050. </p>
<p>This contrasts starkly with the agenda of President Donald Trump, which has involved rolling back climate regulations and plans for a US <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/04/politics/trump-climate-change-policy-rollbacks/index.html">withdrawal</a> from the Paris deal. </p>
<p>Clearly, a Biden election win would bring a climate policy sea change in the US – the world’s <a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/02/greenhouse-gas-emissions-by-country-sector">second-largest</a> greenhouse gas polluter and a key player in any international agreement. </p>
<p>The Trump presidency has been a godsend for an Australian government apparently uninterested in significant climate action. But with Trump <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/presidential-polls">behind</a> in the polls, a Biden presidency would further expose the Morrison government’s lack of climate ambition – a position that was already fast becoming indefensible.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Donald Trump addressing supporters." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354498/original/file-20200825-16-nmpink.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354498/original/file-20200825-16-nmpink.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354498/original/file-20200825-16-nmpink.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354498/original/file-20200825-16-nmpink.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354498/original/file-20200825-16-nmpink.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354498/original/file-20200825-16-nmpink.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354498/original/file-20200825-16-nmpink.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">US President Donald Trump signalled the US’ intention to exit the Paris Agreement.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Steve Helber/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Climate policy: Australia in the world</h2>
<p>In international terms, Australia’s emissions reduction commitments are clearly at the lower level of ambition. </p>
<p>It’s pledged a 26% reduction from 2005 levels by 2030, and plans to “carry over” carbon credits earned during the Kyoto protocol period to substantially reduce the emissions reduction task under Paris. Even given this modest goal, and the emissions slowdown during the pandemic, it’s <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/australian-emissions-break-paris-targets-even-after-corona-quiet-20200629-p557co.html.">still not certain</a> Australia will meet its target. </p>
<p>But unlike the US, at least Australia can point to its continued commitment to the Paris Agreement itself. And the Morrison government’s claim that Australia’s emission reduction will <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-answer-the-argument-that-australias-emissions-are-too-small-to-make-a-difference-118825">have little</a> global impact is easier to make when a major emitter is refusing to take substantive climate action.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/carbon-dioxide-levels-over-australia-rose-even-after-covid-19-forced-global-emissions-down-heres-why-144119">Carbon dioxide levels over Australia rose even after COVID-19 forced global emissions down. Here's why</a>
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<hr>
<p>But that state of play will change under a Biden presidency. Importantly, the new administration will likely use its re-entry to the global climate action “tent” to push other countries to increase their ambition. </p>
<p>This would put pressure on Australia ahead of COP26 – the next round of United Nations climate talks in Glasgow, in November 2021. The central focus of these talks – postponed from 2020 – will be new national commitments on emissions reduction. </p>
<p>Under the terms of the Paris Agreement, countries have to ratchet up their commitments every five years. So far, there is no indication Australia will comply but ahead of the next COP, host nation the UK will be <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pressure-builds-on-australia-despite-delay-to-international-climate-talks-20200807-p55jgu.html">among a group of nations</a> pushing the Morrison government to go harder. Under Biden, the US would likely join the chorus.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Scott Morrison holding a lump of coal in Parliament" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354500/original/file-20200825-22-65meql.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354500/original/file-20200825-22-65meql.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354500/original/file-20200825-22-65meql.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354500/original/file-20200825-22-65meql.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354500/original/file-20200825-22-65meql.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354500/original/file-20200825-22-65meql.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354500/original/file-20200825-22-65meql.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scott Morrison is a vocal supporter of Australia’s coal industry.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Pressure from all directions</h2>
<p>Even without a Biden presidency, other forces are making Australia’s climate position less tenable. </p>
<p>Pressure from Australia’s near neighbours has been significant. At the 2019 Pacific Islands Forum, the Morrison government was roundly chastised for its climate inaction – an issue central to the concerns of Pacific island states. Indeed, it seems clear Australia’s climate policy is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/16/revealed-fierce-pacific-forum-meeting-almost-collapsed-over-climate-crisis">undermining</a> the Morrison government’s so-called Pacific step up, making effective engagement with the region much more challenging.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-farmers-want-more-climate-action-and-theyre-starting-in-their-own-huge-backyards-144792">Australia's farmers want more climate action – and they’re starting in their own (huge) backyards</a>
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<p>At home, the devastating effects of the last bushfire season brought Australian climate action into sharp focus. <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/climate-change-security-and-australian-bushfires">Under climate change</a>, natural disasters such as bushfires will become more frequent and severe. </p>
<p>In 2019, Australians identified climate change as the <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/australians-rate-climate-change-a-bigger-threat-than-terrorism">biggest threat</a> to our vital national interests. The 2020 Lowy Poll saw a <a href="https://poll.lowyinstitute.org/charts/attitudes-to-global-warming">slight decline</a> in concern for climate change as the effects of the coronavirus took hold, but support for strong action was still well above 50%.</p>
<p>The National Farmers Federation, historically a relatively conservative voice on climate policy, last week <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-farmers-want-more-climate-action-and-theyre-starting-in-their-own-huge-backyards-144792">called for</a> Australia to commit to the same target as Biden – net-zero emissions by 2050. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Cows lined up against a fence" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354502/original/file-20200825-22-166e5nq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354502/original/file-20200825-22-166e5nq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354502/original/file-20200825-22-166e5nq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354502/original/file-20200825-22-166e5nq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354502/original/file-20200825-22-166e5nq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354502/original/file-20200825-22-166e5nq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354502/original/file-20200825-22-166e5nq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The National Farmers Federation wants Australia’s economy to transition to net-zero emissions by 2050.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This target is also a feature of the federal opposition’s position on climate policy, together with a 40% emissions reduction by 2030. Current <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/12/joel-fitzgibbon-blasted-by-mark-butler-for-backing-gas-led-covid-recovery-plan">Labor infighting</a> over the policy after its 2019 election loss casts some doubt on that commitment. But the party’s climate change spokesman Mark Butler, and others in Labor pushing Australia to do more, will surely be empowered by the dynamics noted above. </p>
<p>If the case for emissions reduction needed strengthening further, a <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org.au/research/lethal-power-how-coal-is-killing-people-in-australia/">Greenpeace report</a> released on Monday, reviewed by scientists, found pollution from Australia’s 22 coal-fired power stations is responsible for 800 premature deaths each year.</p>
<p>Added to this, research <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/03/more-coal-power-generation-closed-than-opened-around-the-world-this-year-research-finds">has found</a> more coal power generation closed than opened around the world this year. And the International Energy Agency <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/30/covid-19-crisis-demand-fossil-fuels-iea-renewable-electricity">says</a> renewable electricity may be the only energy source to withstand the COVID-19 demand shock.</p>
<p>Combined with the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/24/australian-power-prices-forecast-to-fall-by-7-by-2022-as-cost-of-renewables-drops">falling cost</a> of renewables technology, the Morrison government’s dogged support for the fossil fuel industry is increasingly unjustifiable.</p>
<h2>No silver bullet</h2>
<p>A Biden presidency won’t be a silver bullet for Australian climate policy. The Morrison government has shown itself willing to shrug off <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-16/australia-climate-carry-over-credits-slammed-cop25/11793818">international condemnation</a> and view climate action primarily through the lens of mining exports and electricity prices. And for that, they’ve arguably been <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-20/what-happened-to-the-climate-change-vote/11128128">rewarded at the ballot box</a>. </p>
<p>But domestic and international pressure for Australia to do more is increasing. A Biden election victory would certainly make it that bit harder for Australia to keep its head stuck in the sand. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-farmers-want-more-climate-action-and-theyre-starting-in-their-own-huge-backyards-144792">Australia's farmers want more climate action – and they’re starting in their own (huge) backyards</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144870/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt McDonald has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the UK's Economic and Social Research Council.</span></em></p>The Trump presidency has been a godsend for an Australian government apparently uninterested in significant climate action. But with Trump well behind in the polls, that’s set to change.Matt McDonald, Associate Professor of International Relations, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1289212019-12-16T03:14:05Z2019-12-16T03:14:05ZThe Madrid climate talks failed spectacularly. Here’s what went down<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307028/original/file-20191216-123983-9sz4s9.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C11%2C1590%2C1185&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Low ambition from polluting nations derailed the COP25 climate talks.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Supplied by author</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The United Nations’ <a href="https://www.cop25.cl/#/">COP25 climate talks</a> concluded on Sunday morning in Madrid, almost 40 hours overtime. After two weeks of protracted talks meant to address the planetary warming emergency, world leaders spectacularly failed to reach any real outcomes.</p>
<p>The degree to which wealthy nations, including Australia, blocked progress on critical points of debate incensed both observers and country delegates.</p>
<p>These points included robust rules for the global trading of carbon credits, increased commitments for finance to help developing nations tackle climate change, and most importantly, raising ambition to a level consistent with averting catastrophic climate impacts. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307031/original/file-20191216-124009-wk3pci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307031/original/file-20191216-124009-wk3pci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307031/original/file-20191216-124009-wk3pci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307031/original/file-20191216-124009-wk3pci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307031/original/file-20191216-124009-wk3pci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307031/original/file-20191216-124009-wk3pci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307031/original/file-20191216-124009-wk3pci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Australia’s Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor, far left, with other delegates to the COP 25.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">JUAN CARLOS HIDALGO</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>High hopes</h2>
<p>COP25 was a conference of “parties”, or nations, signed up to the Paris Agreement, which takes effect in 2021. I attended the conference as an observer. </p>
<p>Emissions reduction targets of nations signed up to Paris put Earth on track for a <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/">3.2°C temperature increase</a> this century. However the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says warming must be <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">kept below 1.5°C</a> to avoid the most devastating climate impacts.</p>
<p>Much was riding on the outcome in Madrid. However, it failed to deliver.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/earth-has-a-couple-more-chances-to-avoid-catastrophic-climate-change-this-week-is-one-of-them-128120">Earth has a couple more chances to avoid catastrophic climate change. This week is one of them</a>
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<p>One of the key agenda items was Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, involving international carbon trading between nations.</p>
<p>The previous COP in Poland failed to reach consensus on these trading rules, and after this latest meeting, many contentious issues remained unresolved. These include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>how to ensure that an overall reduction in global emissions is achieved and that the rules prevent double counting (or emissions reduction units being counted by both the buying and selling nation)</p></li>
<li><p>whether a levy would be applied to proceeds from carbon trading to finance adaptation in developing nations</p></li>
<li><p>the recognition of human and indigenous peoples’ rights, and social and environmental safeguards, given the harms caused by previous carbon trading mechanisms</p></li>
<li><p>critically for Australia, whether countries could use “carryover” carbon credits from the Kyoto Protocol to meet commitments under the Paris Agreement.</p></li>
</ul>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307029/original/file-20191216-124041-1c61fet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307029/original/file-20191216-124041-1c61fet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307029/original/file-20191216-124041-1c61fet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307029/original/file-20191216-124041-1c61fet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307029/original/file-20191216-124041-1c61fet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307029/original/file-20191216-124041-1c61fet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307029/original/file-20191216-124041-1c61fet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">An indigenous woman from Amazon reacts during COP25, which largely failed to deliver.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">JUAN CARLOS HIDALGO/EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The question of Kyoto credits</h2>
<p>Australia was pushing to allow use of Kyoto Protocol units, for which it drew <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/not-winning-friends-australia-cops-blame-as-climate-talks-extended-20191214-p53jyk.html">scathing criticism</a> from <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/12/14/australia-brazil-carbon-credits-will-put-1-5c-reach-ten-countries-say/">other nations,</a> international media and observers. It plans to meet more than half its Paris target via this accounting loophole.</p>
<p>Brazil, India, South Korea and China also want to carry over credits earned under the Clean Development Mechanism, a trading scheme under Kyoto.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/now-australian-cities-are-choking-on-smoke-will-we-finally-talk-about-climate-change-128543">Now Australian cities are choking on smoke, will we finally talk about climate change?</a>
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<p>No consensus was reached. The negotiations for rules for carbon markets will now continue at COP26 in Glasgow next year, just weeks out from the Paris Agreement’s start date. </p>
<p>The argument will not be easily resolved. Five of the last seven COP meetings failed to reach a decision on carbon market rules, indicating the extent of international divisions, and calling into question the disproportionate focus on carbon trading, given its <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/12/13/carbon-markets-will-not-help-stop-climate-change/">limited ability</a> to address climate change.</p>
<p>In Madrid, 31 nations signed up to the <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/12/14/australia-brazil-carbon-credits-will-put-1-5c-reach-ten-countries-say/">San Jose principles</a>, seeking to ensure environmental integrity in carbon markets. Upholding these principles would mean emissions must go down, not up as a result of trading carbon.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307032/original/file-20191216-124027-19wrge6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307032/original/file-20191216-124027-19wrge6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307032/original/file-20191216-124027-19wrge6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307032/original/file-20191216-124027-19wrge6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307032/original/file-20191216-124027-19wrge6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307032/original/file-20191216-124027-19wrge6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307032/original/file-20191216-124027-19wrge6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Steam rises a German coal-fired power plant. The COP25 failed to make progress on cutting emissions from coal and other sources.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/FRIEDEMANN VOGEL</span></span>
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<h2>Other failures</h2>
<p>The conference also discussed measures to strengthen the governance and finance arrangements of the Warsaw International Mechanism, a measure designed to compensate poor nations for climate damage.</p>
<p>Little progress was made on mobilising finance from developed nations. The US, which will soon exit the Paris Agreement, played a key role in stymieing progress. It resisted efforts for broad governance arrangements, and pushed for language in the rulebook which would exclude high-emittiong nations from liability for the loss and damage experienced by vulnerable countries under climate change.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/global-emissions-to-hit-36-8-billion-tonnes-beating-last-years-record-high-128113">Global emissions to hit 36.8 billion tonnes, beating last year's record high</a>
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<p>At Glasgow, all nations under Paris are required to submit new emissions reduction commitments. It was widely expected that the Madrid meeting would strongly urge nations to ensure these targets were more ambitious than the last. Instead, the final text only “reminds” parties to “communicate” their commitments in 2020.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307030/original/file-20191216-124041-1wcrh7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307030/original/file-20191216-124041-1wcrh7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307030/original/file-20191216-124041-1wcrh7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307030/original/file-20191216-124041-1wcrh7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307030/original/file-20191216-124041-1wcrh7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307030/original/file-20191216-124041-1wcrh7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307030/original/file-20191216-124041-1wcrh7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">President of COP25, Carolina Schmidt (right), and UN official Ovais Sarmad.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/MAST IRHAM</span></span>
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<h2>‘Crime against humanity’</h2>
<p>When the COP finally closed on Sunday morning, the meeting had failed to reach consensus on increasing emissions reduction ambition to the level required.</p>
<p>The results are disheartening. The world has let another chance slip by to tackle the climate crisis, and time is fast running out.</p>
<p>The implications of this were perhaps summed up best by the low-lying Pacific island state of Tuvalu, whose representative Ian Fry said of the outcome:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>There are millions of people all around the world who are already suffering from the impacts of climate change. Denying this fact could be interpreted by some to be a crime against humanity.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128921/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Dooley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Earth has only a few chances to avert catastrophic climate change. At the COP25 in Madrid, we blew one of them.Kate Dooley, Research Fellow, Climate and Energy College, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1281202019-12-02T18:13:45Z2019-12-02T18:13:45ZEarth has a couple more chances to avoid catastrophic climate change. This week is one of them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304634/original/file-20191202-67023-emmwbr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=29%2C14%2C4861%2C3240&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">This week's climate conference in Madrid is key to getting global cooperation on climate change, the impacts of which are already being felt.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Almost 200 world leaders gather in Madrid this week for climate talks which will largely determine the success of the Paris agreement, and by extension, the extent to which the planet will suffer under climate change.</p>
<p>Negotiations at the so-called <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/cop25-will-take-place-in-madrid-from-2-to-13-december-2019">COP25</a> will focus on finalising details of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-finally-have-the-rulebook-for-the-paris-agreement-but-global-climate-action-is-still-inadequate-108918">Paris Agreement</a>. Nations will haggle over how bold emissions reductions will be, and how to measure and achieve them.</p>
<p>Much is riding on a successful outcome in Madrid. The challenge is to get nations further along the road to the strong climate goals, without any major diplomatic rifts or a collapse in talks.</p>
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<h2>What COP25 is about</h2>
<p>COP25 is a shorthand name for the 25th meeting of the Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (or the nations signed up to the Paris agreement).</p>
<p>After Paris was signed in 2015, nations were given five years in which to set out bolder climate action. Current targets expire in 2020. At next year’s November COP in Glasgow, nations will be asked to formally commit to higher targets. If Madrid does not successfully lay the groundwork for this, the Glasgow talks are likely to fail.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-most-important-issue-facing-australia-new-survey-sees-huge-spike-in-concern-over-climate-change-127688">The most important issue facing Australia? New survey sees huge spike in concern over climate change</a>
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<p>The United Nations says the world <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/cut-global-emissions-by-76-percent-every-year-for-next-decade-to-meet-15degc-paris-target-un-report">must reduce overall emissions by 7.6%</a> every year over the next decade to have a high chance of staying under 1.5°C warming this century. </p>
<p>The 1.5°C limit is at the upper end of the Paris goal; warming beyond this is likely to lead to catastrophic impacts, including <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/radical-climate-action-critical-to-great-barrier-reef-s-survival-government-body-says-20190413-p51dul.html">near-total destruction of the Great Barrier Reef</a>.</p>
<p>Presently, emissions reduction targets of nations signed up to Paris put Earth <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/">on track for a 3.2°C</a> increase.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304635/original/file-20191202-67011-p4ln2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304635/original/file-20191202-67011-p4ln2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304635/original/file-20191202-67011-p4ln2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304635/original/file-20191202-67011-p4ln2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304635/original/file-20191202-67011-p4ln2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304635/original/file-20191202-67011-p4ln2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304635/original/file-20191202-67011-p4ln2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Coral bleaching will devastate the Great Barrier Reef if climate change is not curbed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">KERRYN BELL</span></span>
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<h2>A global carbon market</h2>
<p>Parties will debate the mechanism in the Paris agreement allowing emissions trading between nations, and via the private sector.</p>
<p>Such mechanisms could lower the global cost of climate mitigation, because emissions reduction in some nations is cheaper than in others. But there are concerns the trading regime may <a href="https://www.beaumontenterprise.com/business/energy/article/U-S-to-Negotiate-Carbon-Trades-Under-Climate-14870329.php">lack transparency and accountability</a> and <a href="https://www.berghahnjournals.com/view/journals/ijsq/8/2/ijsq080203.xml">ignore human rights</a>.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/double-counting-of-emissions-cuts-may-undermine-paris-climate-deal-125019">Double counting of emissions cuts may undermine Paris climate deal</a>
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<p>Among the additional risks are that <a href="https://theconversation.com/double-counting-of-emissions-cuts-may-undermine-paris-climate-deal-125019">emissions cuts are “double counted”</a> - meaning both the buying and selling nation count the cuts towards their targets, undermining the aims of the agreement.</p>
<h2>Help for vulnerable nations</h2>
<p>Small island states say COP25 is the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/dec/01/island-states-want-decisive-action-to-prevent-inundation">last chance to take decisive action</a> on global emissions reduction.</p>
<p>Fossil fuel burning in the developing world is largely responsible for the carbon dioxide that drives global warming. Developing nations are particularly vulnerable to the loss and damage caused by climate change.</p>
<p>Parties will discuss whether <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/adaptation-and-resilience/workstreams/loss-and-damage-ld/warsaw-international-mechanism-for-loss-and-damage-associated-with-climate-change-impacts-wim">an international mechanism</a> designed to assess and compensate for such damage is effective.</p>
<p>Developing nations are expected to contribute to <a href="https://www.greenclimate.fund/cop">the Green Climate Fund</a> to help poorer nations to adapt to and mitigate climate change. Some 27 nations <a href="https://www.greenclimate.fund/news/countries-step-up-ambition-landmark-boost-to-coffers-of-the-world-s-largest-climate-fund">contributed US$9.78 billion</a> in the last funding round.</p>
<p>Some nations have indicated they will not contribute further, <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/04/02/australia-stops-payments-green-climate-fund/">including Australia</a>, which says it already helps Pacific nations through its overseas aid program.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304636/original/file-20191202-67017-lrhq1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304636/original/file-20191202-67017-lrhq1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304636/original/file-20191202-67017-lrhq1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304636/original/file-20191202-67017-lrhq1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304636/original/file-20191202-67017-lrhq1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304636/original/file-20191202-67017-lrhq1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304636/original/file-20191202-67017-lrhq1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Low-lying islands such as Tuvalu are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise caused by climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">MICK TSIKAS/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Arguments about cost</h2>
<p>Nations opposed to adopting stronger emissions reduction targets often argue the costs of decarbonising energy sectors, and economies as a whole, are too high.</p>
<p>However, recent <a href="https://academic.oup.com/reep/article/12/1/4/4804315">cost benefit analysis</a> has found not taking action on climate change will be expensive in the long run.</p>
<p>Realisation is also growing that the cost of emissions reduction activities has been overestimated in the past. In Australia, <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-could-fall-apart-under-climate-change-but-theres-a-way-to-avoid-it-126341">prominent economist Ross Garnaut </a> recently said huge falls in the cost of equipment for solar and wind energy has created massive economic opportunity, such as future manufacturing of zero-emission iron and aluminium.</p>
<p>The shift in the cost-balance means nations with low ambition will find it difficult to argue against climate mitigation on cost grounds.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304637/original/file-20191202-66994-52v7lw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304637/original/file-20191202-66994-52v7lw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304637/original/file-20191202-66994-52v7lw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304637/original/file-20191202-66994-52v7lw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304637/original/file-20191202-66994-52v7lw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304637/original/file-20191202-66994-52v7lw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304637/original/file-20191202-66994-52v7lw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A coal-fired power plant in Germany. Developing nations emit most CO2 in the atmosphere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">SASCHA STEINBACH/EPA</span></span>
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<h2>Australia’s position at Madrid</h2>
<p>At the Paris talks, Australia pledged emissions reduction of 26-28% by 2030, based on 2005 levels. The Morrison government has indicated it will <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/26/scott-morrison-says-australias-record-on-climate-change-misrepresented-by-media">not ramp up the goal</a>.</p>
<p>About 68 nations said before COP25 they will set bolder emissions reduction targets, including Fiji, South Africa and New Zealand. This group is expected to exert pressure on laggard nations.</p>
<p>This pressure has already begun: France has <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/france-puts-climate-at-heart-of-any-fta-with-europe-20191107-p5386n">reportedly insisted</a> that a planned free trade deal between Australia and the European Union must include “highly ambitious” action on climate change.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-hot-and-dry-australian-summer-means-heatwaves-and-fire-risk-ahead-127990">A hot and dry Australian summer means heatwaves and fire risk ahead</a>
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<p>The Climate Action Tracker says Australia is <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/australia/current-policy-projections/">not contributing its fair share</a> towards the global 1.5°C commitment. Australia is also ranked among the <a href="https://www.climate-transparency.org/g20-climate-performance/g20report2019">worst performing G20 nations</a> on climate action. </p>
<p>The Madrid conference takes place amid high public concern over climate change. Thousands of Australians <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-20/school-strike-for-climate-draws-thousands-to-australian-rallies/11531612">took part in September’s climate strikes</a> and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/environment-is-prime-worry-for-the-first-time-poll-20191201-p53fu5.html">the environment has reportedly </a>surpassed healthcare, cost of living and the economy as the top public concern.</p>
<p>Climate change has already arrived in the form of more extreme weather and bushfires, water stress, sea level rise and more. These effects are a small taste of what is to come if negotiations in Madrid fail to deliver.</p>
<p><em>Johanna Nalau, Samid Suliman and Tim Cadman contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128120/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Recent bushfires and extreme weather are just a small taste of what is to come if this week’s climate negotiations in Madrid fail to deliver.Robert Hales, Director Centre for Sustainable Enterprise, Griffith UniversityJohanna Nalau, Research Fellow, Climate Adaptation, Griffith UniversitySamid Suliman, Lecturer in Migration and Security, Griffith UniversityTim Cadman, Postdoctoral Research/Teaching Fellow, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/785312017-05-30T20:11:52Z2017-05-30T20:11:52ZThe US quitting the Paris climate agreement will only make things worse<p>US President Donald Trump has <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/868441116726710272">announced</a> that he will decide this week whether to follow through on his threat to pull out of the Paris climate agreement. Some news outlets are <a href="https://www.axios.com/scoop-trump-tells-confidants-he-plans-to-leave-paris-climate-deal-2424446776.html">already reporting</a> that he has decided to leave. But would the world be better off if the US stays or goes?</p>
<p>An array of <a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2017/04/paris-agreement-should-us-stay-or-should-it-go">environmental groups</a>, <a href="https://www.c2es.org/international/business-support-paris-agreement">businesses</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/26/world/europe/paris-climate-agreement-trump-g7.html">leaders of other countries</a> are calling for the US to stay. While their reasons vary, a common theme is that the US has both a moral obligation to play its part in global climate policy, and an economic interest in doing so.</p>
<p>Many of these arguments rely on the US taking strong domestic climate action. But Trump has already begun <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/03/28/presidential-executive-order-promoting-energy-independence-and-economi-1">dismantling</a> a raft of Obama-era climate policies. Unless reversed, these moves will ruin any chance of the US meeting its <a href="http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/usa.html">current target</a> of reducing emissions by 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025. Trump’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-trumps-skinny-budget-is-already-dead-73824">draft budget</a> would also drastically cut US climate aid to developing nations.</p>
<p>With this in mind, the question becomes: is global climate policy better served if a recalcitrant major power stays on board or if it goes its own way?</p>
<p>Considered this way, the arguments for leaving become harder to dismiss. In two thought-provoking commentaries, climate policy experts <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-world-would-be-better-off-if-trump-withdraws-from-the-paris-climate-deal-78096">Luke Kemp</a> of the Australian National University and <a href="http://duckofminerva.com/2017/05/should-we-try-to-convince-trump-to-stay-in-the-paris-agreement.html">Matthew Hoffmann</a> of the University of Toronto argue that the world would actually better off if the US pulls out. Two reasons loom large in these analyses: the US would be prevented from white-anting further UN negotiations, and the backlash to its withdrawal would spur on China, Europe and other nations to greater action. </p>
<p>But if we look closely at each argument, it’s far from clear that leaving is the lesser evil.</p>
<h2>Sidelining US obstruction?</h2>
<p>It is not a foregone conclusion that the US, if it stayed, would be able to hold the talks hostage or successfully <a href="http://cprindia.org/news/6155">water down rules</a> aimed at preventing countries from backsliding on their targets. Granted, the UN’s consensus-based model makes this a real danger, but climate negotiations have reached decisions even in the face of opposition from a major power, as happened when <a href="http://enb.iisd.org/vol12/enb12567e.html">Russia</a> was overridden in 2012.</p>
<p>What’s more, withdrawing wouldn’t necessarily stop the US trying to play spoiler anyway. Formal withdrawal from Paris <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-10/how-donald-trump-could-walk-away-from-decades-of-climate-deals">could take until late 2020</a>. Even then (assuming a more progressive president isn’t elected shortly after that), the US could still cause trouble by remaining within the Agreement’s parent treaty, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). </p>
<p>The “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-10/how-donald-trump-could-walk-away-from-decades-of-climate-deals">nuclear option</a>” of withdrawing from the UNFCCC itself would create further problems. Rejoining it would be likely to require the approval of the US Senate (which, given its current makeup, seems highly doubtful), whereas a new administration could rejoin Paris through a <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14693062.2015.1061472">Presidential-executive agreement</a>.</p>
<h2>Will other countries do more?</h2>
<p>Major economies like China and India have their own domestic reasons for cutting emissions, not least local air pollution and energy security. Both <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-energy-china-idUSKBN1700RU">China</a> and <a href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/05/11/indian-energy-minister-reaffirms-paris-climate-commitments/">India</a> plan to stick with the agreement regardless of what the US does. There are signs that they will <a href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/05/15/india-china-track-exceed-paris-climate-pledges/">exceed their current climate targets</a>, thus more than outweighing the increase in emissions resulting from US climate policy rollbacks. We can’t be confident that US withdrawal would encourage China and India to do any more than they are already doing now.</p>
<p>The Kyoto Protocol provides a sobering precedent: while those countries that stayed in the protocol <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2093579-was-kyoto-climate-deal-a-success-figures-reveal-mixed-results/">complied with their targets</a>, none of them raised their targets to take up the slack when the US withdrew.</p>
<p>Writing in The Conversation, Luke Kemp suggests that US withdrawal could <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-world-would-be-better-off-if-trump-withdraws-from-the-paris-climate-deal-78096">trigger countries to slap carbon tariffs on US imports</a>. Large economies such as the European Union and China could attempt to do so outside the Paris framework, but few (if any) major trading partners will be eager for a <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-juncker-idUSKBN16P0GQ">trade war</a> with the US.</p>
<p>US withdrawal is just as likely to demotivate other countries as energise them. Nations with less domestic momentum on climate policy may likewise pull out, water down their current or future targets, or fail to ratify Paris. For now, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/may/28/australia-will-still-support-paris-climate-deal-if-trump-pulls-out-frydenberg-says">Australia</a> plans to stay in, regardless of what the US does. A greater risk is <a href="https://thinkprogress.org/first-paris-then-putin-b665fbc1ce31">Russia</a>, the world’s fifth-largest emitter, which doesn’t plan to ratify the Paris Agreement until at least <a href="http://tass.com/politics/945925">2019</a>. Other reluctant countries whose stance may be influenced by what the US does include Saudi Arabia and the Philippines (which have ratified Paris) and Iran and Turkey (which have not).</p>
<h2>Fallout for multilateralism</h2>
<p>Neither of the two arguments I’ve discussed so far amounts to a solid case for leaving. Meanwhile, there is another key reason for the US to stay: the risk that its withdrawal would strike a broader blow to the principle of multilateralism – the idea that tough global problems need to be solved through inclusive cooperation, not unilateral action or a spaghetti bowl of bilateral deals.</p>
<p>The UN climate talks are firmly integrated into the bigger picture of <a href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/05/09/china-warns-trump-leaving-paris-accord-risks-bad-deals-g7-g20/">global diplomacy</a>, and the Paris deal itself was seen as a <a href="https://www.c2es.org/docUploads/legal-note-could-future-president-reverse-us-approval-paris-agreement.pdf">huge achievement for multilateralism</a>. Both the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-35605916">US</a> and <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/australia-and-climate-change-negotiations-table-or-menu">Australia</a> previously suffered significant diplomatic fallout for deciding to stay out of Kyoto.</p>
<p>The international reaction to withdrawal from Paris would be even harsher. US participation was a prerequisite for China and India to sign up, and key elements of the treaty were <a href="http://booksandjournals.brillonline.com/content/journals/10.1163/18786561-00601003">designed to enable the US to join</a>. To pull out after all that would be an egregious violation of trust and goodwill.</p>
<p>Some might welcome the resulting diminution of Trump’s ability to push through his agenda globally. But ultimately the erosion of multilateralism – already damaged by <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-brexit-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-international-cooperation-70865">Brexit</a> and Trump’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/05/28/thanks-to-trump-germany-says-it-cant-rely-on-america-what-does-that-mean/?utm_term=.89c0962ebb77">abrasive trip to Europe</a> – is in no country’s interest if it undermines international trust and cooperation on issues like trade, public health and security.</p>
<p>Treaty withdrawal is uncommon in international diplomacy, arguably much more so than non-compliance. One of the few <a href="http://scholarship.law.duke.edu/faculty_scholarship/2025/">studies</a> on this issue found that only 3.5% of multilateral treaties had any withdrawals. As most treaty exits are concentrated in a small number of treaties, the risk of knock-on effects is a real concern. When <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/dec/13/canada-pulls-out-kyoto-protocol">Canada withdrew from Kyoto</a>, for example, it cited US non-participation as a justification.</p>
<p>Given how badly the US is behaving on climate policy, it is tempting to <a href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/05/10/us-no-longer-worthy-paris-agreement/">argue</a> that it needs some time out from Paris until it’s ready to play nicely with the other kids again. But the fallout from US withdrawal could last far longer than a one- or two-term Republican presidency. </p>
<p>Withdrawal from Paris would signal, more emphatically than domestic inaction alone, that a major polluter is ready to turn its back on the international consensus that a 2°C warmer world should be avoided. That would be bad, not just for international cooperation on climate change, but also for the broader project of multilateralism.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Thanks to Christian Downie, John Dryzek, Mark Howden, Luke Kemp (whom the author debated at an event held by the <a href="http://climate.anu.edu.au/">ANU Climate Change Institute</a>), Peter Lawrence and Jeff McGee for insightful and lively discussions on this topic.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78531/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Pickering's postdoctoral fellowship is funded by the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>Some experts say it’s better for the US to leave the Paris Agreement than white-ant it from within. But that ignores the damage that a US withdrawal would do to the fabric of global multilateralism.Jonathan Pickering, Postdoctoral Fellow, Centre for Deliberative Democracy and Global Governance, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/756762017-04-10T02:19:06Z2017-04-10T02:19:06ZIs Paris climate deal really ‘cactus’, and would it matter if it was?<p>President Donald Trump is keeping some of his promises. Late last month he <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-tears-down-us-climate-policy-but-america-could-lose-out-as-a-result-75391">signed an executive order</a> that tore up Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan. Some commentators see this as putting the world on “<a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/trumps-executive-order-puts-the-world-on-the-road-to-climate-catastrophe-59677">the road to climate catastrophe</a>”, while others have described it as an effort at “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/03/29/trumps-climate-change-shift-is-really-about-killing-the-international-order/">killing the international order</a>”.</p>
<p>Will America <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-tears-down-us-climate-policy-but-america-could-lose-out-as-a-result-75391">lose out</a>? Will China, which <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/30/climate-change-china-us-selfish-trump-coal">has chided Trump</a> for selfishness, be the prime beneficiary as its <a href="http://breakingenergy.com/2017/03/29/solar-power-the-future-is-here-alternative-energy/">solar panel industry continues to expand</a>?</p>
<p>Here in Australia, in response to Trump’s order, Liberal backbencher Craig Kelly, chair of the government’s Environment Committee, took predictable aim at Australia’s international climate commitments, labelling the 2015 Paris Agreement “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/29/conservative-liberals-watching-trumps-lead-on-climate-key-backbencher-says">cactus</a>”. </p>
<p>Kelly is <a href="https://www.facebook.com/CraigKellyMP/posts/123817311146245">on the record as disputing climate science</a> and <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/heat-turned-up-on-malcolm-turnbulls-domestic-climate-policies-as-world-pledges-to-act-20151213-glmbv1.html">poured scorn on the Paris deal when it was struck</a>.
He is certainly not alone among the government’s ranks in this view. </p>
<p>The day after Trump’s election win last November, Australia <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-to-ratify-the-paris-climate-deal-under-a-large-trump-shaped-shadow-68586">ratified the Paris deal</a>
and Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said that it would <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/10/turnbull-signals-australia-wont-follow-trumps-lead-on-paris-climate-agreement">take four years for Trump to pull out</a>. </p>
<p>So is the Paris deal really “cactus”? What would we have lost if so? And does it matter?</p>
<h2>What was agreed in Paris?</h2>
<p>The Paris Agreement came after the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (agreed at the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_Summit">Rio Earth Summit</a> in 1992) had suffered a body blow at the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference">2009 UN climate talks in Copenhagen</a> . </p>
<p>Opinion was divided on the reasons for the failure of the Copenhagen summit, but the then prime minister Kevin Rudd didn’t mince words in blaming the Chinese, infamously accusing them during the negotiations of trying to “<a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-06-15/column-on-kevin-may-contain-coarse-language/866842">rat-fuck us</a>”. (For what it is worth, the British climate writer Mark Lynas <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/dec/22/copenhagen-climate-change-mark-lynas">agreed</a>, albeit in less incendiary tones.)</p>
<p>A series of fence-mending meetings and careful smoothing of frayed nerves and wounded egos followed over the next five years. The French took charge and, with the price of renewable energy generation plummeting (and so making emissions reductions at least theoretically “affordable”), a deal was struck at the Paris summit in December 2015.</p>
<p>The agreement, <a href="http://news.trust.org/item/20160407130923-g5wnv/">notably silent on fossil fuels</a>, calls on nations to take actions to reduce their emissions so that temperatures can be held to less than 2°C above the pre-industrial average. This limit, which is <a href="http://www.climateemergencyinstitute.com/uploads/2C_Chris_Shaw_2015.pdf">not actually “safe”</a>,
will require a herculean effort and luck. If you add up all the national commitments, they will most likely take us <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v534/n7609/full/nature18307.html">to roughly 3°C or beyond</a>.</p>
<p>Australia’s commitment of a 26-28% reduction in greenhouse emissions by 2030, relative to 2005 levels, was seen as being at the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-2030-climate-target-puts-us-in-the-race-but-at-the-back-45931">low end of acceptable</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-post-2020-climate-target-not-enough-to-stop-2c-warming-experts-45879">not enough to help meet the 2°C limit</a>.</p>
<p>Eminent climate scientist <a href="http://www.columbia.edu/%7Ejeh1/">James Hansen</a> labelled Paris <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/12/james-hansen-climate-change-paris-talks-fraud">a fraud</a>, while Clive Spash (the economist <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/scientist-quits-csiro-amid-censorship-claims-20091203-k8vb.html">monstered by Labor in 2009</a> for pointing out that Rudd’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme was not much cop) thought it was <a href="https://manchesterclimatemonthly.net/2016/04/26/not-manchester-reality-check-on-paris-this-changes-nothing/">worthless</a>.</p>
<p>British climatologist Kevin Anderson is similarly dubious, arguing that the agreement <a href="http://kevinanderson.info/blog/the-hidden-agenda-how-veiled-techno-utopias-shore-up-the-paris-agreement/">assumes we will invent technologies that can suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere</a> in, well, industrial quantities in the second half of this century.</p>
<p>So why the relative optimism among the climate commentariat? They’re <a href="https://marchudson.net/2015/12/13/why-the-hype-over-paris-and-cop21-politics-psychology-and-money/">desperate for a win</a> after so many defeats, which stretch back all the way to the Kyoto climate conference of 1997.</p>
<h2>Second time as farce?</h2>
<p>After Australia’s initial promises to be a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/25-years-ago-the-australian-government-promised-deep-emissions-cuts-and-yet-here-we-still-are-46805">good international citizen</a>”, reality quickly <a href="https://theconversation.com/cabinet-papers-1992-93-australia-reluctant-while-world-moves-towards-first-climate-treaty-70535">set in</a> during the early years of serious climate diplomacy. </p>
<p>Although Australia was an early ratifier of the treaty that emerged from the Rio summit, it nevertheless went to the first annual UN climate talks (chaired by a young Angela Merkel) determined to get a good deal for itself, as a country reliant on coal for electricity generation and eyeing big bucks from coal exports. </p>
<p>That meeting resulted in the “<a href="http://www.cfr.org/climate-change/berlin-mandate/p21276">Berlin Mandate</a>”, which called on developed nations to cut emissions first. Australia, gritting its teeth, agreed. Later that year the Keating Government released economic modelling (<a href="http://www.ombudsman.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0024/26286/investigation_1998_01.pdf">paid for in part by fossil fuel interests</a>) which predicted economic Armageddon for Australia if a uniform emissions-reduction target was applied. This work was picked up by the new Howard government. </p>
<p>After much special pleading and swift footwork, Australia got two very sweet deals at Kyoto in 1997. First, its “reduction” target was 108% of 1990 levels within the 2008-12 period (the then environment minister Robert Hill reportedly refused to push for Howard’s preferred 118%). </p>
<p>Second, Australia successfully lobbied for a clause in the Kyoto treaty <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-hit-its-kyoto-target-but-it-was-more-a-three-inch-putt-than-a-hole-in-one-44731">allowing reductions in land clearing to count as emissions reductions</a>. This meant that Australia could bank benefits for things that were happening for entirely different reasons.</p>
<p>Australia <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/Browse_by_Topic/ClimateChangeold/governance/international/theKyoto">signed the Kyoto Protocol</a> in April 1998, but in September of the same year the cabinet decided not to ratify the deal unless the United States did. In March 2001 President <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2001/mar/29/globalwarming.usnews">George W. Bush pulled out</a>, and Howard <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/2026446.stm">followed suit on World Environment Day in 2002</a>.</p>
<p>Kyoto ratification then became a <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0962629810000648">symbol of green virtue</a> out of all proportion with its actual impact. Rudd got enormous kudos for ratifying it as his first official act as Prime Minister. And then reality set in again when he tried to actually implement an emissions-reduction policy.</p>
<h2>Why does it matter?</h2>
<p>Reality keeps on impinging. In a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/31/opinion/a-message-from-the-end-of-the-world.html?_r=0">beautifully written piece</a> in the New York Times, Ariel Dorfman lists disasters befalling Chile (readers in Queensland will feel like they know what he is on about). He concludes:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>As we get ready to return to the United States, our friends and relatives ask, over and over, can it be true? Can President Trump be beset with such suicidal stupidity as to deny climate change and install an enemy of the earth as his environmental czar? Can he be so beholden to the blind greed of the mineral extraction industry, so ignorant of science, so monumentally arrogant, not to realize that he is inviting apocalypse? Can it be, they ask. The answer, alas, is yes.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Will the opinions of politicians like Donald Trump and Craig Kelly matter at all as long as the price of renewables keeps dropping? Well, possibly. “Shots across the bow” of renewables policy have in the past made investors nervous. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://theconversation.com/gas-crisis-energy-crisis-the-real-problem-is-lack-of-long-term-planning-74705">Alan Pears on this website</a>, and <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/author/giles/">Giles Parkinson at Reneweconomy</a>
have explained, investors in electricity generation got spooked by the policy uncertainty caused by former prime minister Tony Abbott’s hostility to the Renewable Energy Target. That’s the real (and presumably intended) effect of statements like Kelly’s.</p>
<p>Will it work? Optimists will point to last week’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/30/south-australia-to-get-1bn-solar-farm-and-worlds-biggest-battery">announcement that a $1bn solar farm will be built in South Australia</a>, regardless of the concatenating Canberra catastrophe. Perennial pessimists will point to the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keeling_Curve">Keeling Curve</a>, which shows a remorseless and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/03/13/carbon-dioxide-in-the-atmosphere-is-rising-at-the-fastest-rate-ever-recorded/?utm_term=.7d7e79ee2fac">escalating</a> rise in the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Time and prevailing politics are certainly not on our side.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75676/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
With Donald Trump overturning Obama’s Clean Power Plan, and some Australian politicians cheering him on, will we always have Paris?Marc Hudson, PhD Candidate, Sustainable Consumption Institute, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/689462016-11-23T10:59:31Z2016-11-23T10:59:31ZWith waning US leadership on climate, nonstate actors to play outsize role<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146805/original/image-20161121-4515-wl26ha.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Civil society and other groups, such as academics and businesses, stand to play a bigger role in how the countries of the world address climate change.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.iisd.ca/climate/cop22/enb/images/17nov/3K1A2178.jpg">Photo by IISD/ENB | Liz Rubin</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Until recently, the international climate negotiation process revolved strictly around high-level conversations between nation states. However, this is changing in a way that may lead us to rethink the structure of global climate talks. </p>
<p>In particular, nonstate actors, such as businesses and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), are becoming increasingly influential players, transforming the overall conversation – something we witnessed firsthand at the <a href="http://unfccc.int/meetings/marrakech_nov_2016/meeting/9567.php">COP22</a> summit on climate change in <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/marrakech-conference-33009">Marrakech, Morocco</a> this month. </p>
<p>This shift has the potential to not only bring new voices into discussions over how the world addresses climate change, but also create more effective forums for taking action. </p>
<h2>Disengaged US president-elect</h2>
<p>COP22 wasn’t the first time climate talks have been held in Marrakech. The city hosted the same forum in 2001 at a time when George W. Bush had recently been elected president. He promptly removed the U.S. from the global climate treaty known as the <a href="http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php">Kyoto Protocol</a>. That decision cast a pall over those earlier talks, but that pales in comparison to the effect of Trump winning the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-view-from-marrakech-climate-talks-are-battling-through-a-trump-tsunami-68597">U.S. election</a>.</p>
<p>With his administration preparing to take power, there is every expectation that the United States will <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/paris-2015-climate-summit-14031">disengage</a>. President-elect Trump has explicitly indicated he will <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-36401174">end the U.S. involvement in the Paris Agreement</a> <a href="http://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2016/11/14/stories/1060045684">and the climate negotiation process more generally</a>, although <a href="http://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2016/11/14/stories/1060045685">some expect the disengagement may not be quite as severe</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146811/original/image-20161121-4515-ujwim4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146811/original/image-20161121-4515-ujwim4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146811/original/image-20161121-4515-ujwim4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146811/original/image-20161121-4515-ujwim4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146811/original/image-20161121-4515-ujwim4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146811/original/image-20161121-4515-ujwim4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146811/original/image-20161121-4515-ujwim4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146811/original/image-20161121-4515-ujwim4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Delegates at COP22 fully expect diminished U.S. leadership on climate change, which could make action by nonstate actors more prominent.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by IISD/ENB | Liz Rubin</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>How and whether the U.S. officially pulls out of the Paris Agreement or otherwise removes itself from the formal process is still unclear (there are at least <a href="http://www.c2es.org/docUploads/legal-note-could-future-president-reverse-us-approval-paris-agreement.pdf">three possible scenarios</a>). But one thing is certain: The U.S. can no longer be expected to be as active a player as it was under <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/12/12/us-leadership-and-historic-paris-agreement-combat-climate-change">the Obama administration</a>. </p>
<p>This means a different form of engagement is needed for continued progress in addressing climate change. Fortunately, changes in the negotiation environment are taking place.</p>
<h2>Stepped-up role of nonstate actors at Marrakech</h2>
<p>For over two decades, international climate talks held under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (<a href="http://unfccc.int/2860.php">UNFCCC</a>) were focused on coming to a long-term, comprehensive global agreement on climate change. </p>
<p>This was achieved in 2015 with the Paris Agreement, which puts forth a comprehensive architecture designed for the long term. It requires all parties to submit voluntary <a href="http://unfccc.int/focus/ndc_registry/items/9433.php">“Nationally Determined Contributions” (NDCs)</a> to reduce their national greenhouse gas emissions. These pledges are designed to assess how far we have to go toward hitting global climate mitigation and adaptation targets, and how far individual states have gone toward doing their part. Over time, countries are supposed to set more ambitious targets. </p>
<p>The key challenge in Marrakech was to take steps to <a href="http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=55482#.WCwtzdwsW3E">operationalize</a> the Paris Agreement, and here we saw greater involvement of <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/climate-action/global-climate-action-agenda/">nonstate actors</a>. </p>
<p>As Secretary John Kerry pointed out during <a href="http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2016/11/264366.htm">his address in Marrakech</a>, market pressures and low-carbon initiatives, more than states, will play an increasingly <a href="http://lowcarbonusa.org">central role</a>. Economic agents remain important, not merely for direct financial aid and engagement with the market, but <a href="http://journals.gmu.edu/PPPQ/article/viewFile/563/417">also</a> <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21550085.2016.1226236">for</a> <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/lpaa/resilience/g7-climate-risk-insurance-initiative-stepping-up-protection-for-the-most-vulnerable/">insurance</a> <a href="http://unfccc.int/focus/climate_finance/items/7001.php">and other mechanisms of support</a>. </p>
<p>Substate actors can be cities, states and provinces as well as economic institutions, such as development banks. Other groups include research bodies, such as academic institutions, and NGOs. </p>
<p>This stepped-up role for <a href="https://www.edf.org/climate/california-partnerships-climate-and-energy">nonstate actors</a> was particularly notable at <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/climate-action/non-state-actors-partner-with-governments-to-boost-climate-action/">COP22</a> in <a href="http://unfccc.int/files/paris_agreement/application/pdf/marrakech_partnership_for_global_climate_action.pdf">Marrakech</a>. For example, representatives from <a href="http://www.eenews.net/climatewire/stories/1060045918/">California</a> reaffirmed their commitment to reduce the state’s emissions regardless of federal policies. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146814/original/image-20161121-4515-za6nu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146814/original/image-20161121-4515-za6nu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146814/original/image-20161121-4515-za6nu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146814/original/image-20161121-4515-za6nu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146814/original/image-20161121-4515-za6nu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146814/original/image-20161121-4515-za6nu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146814/original/image-20161121-4515-za6nu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146814/original/image-20161121-4515-za6nu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">California Governor Jerry Brown is seen as a global leader on climate change and an example of the influence entities other than countries can play. At COP22 in Marrakech, he said California ‘will continue to confront’ climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/airresources/14996527068/in/photolist-oRc82w-oRbEmu-p8pWH6-p8Fpwk-r6UhGu-qcp5za-qRLAgi-r97mBU-oBdYb-oBeoa-kNw4ET-e53P8y-e53Ptq-e53NxQ-e53NRG-e4Xa6n-e4X9Cx-rZLizX-eyZRZB-8Q7vZm-kNy5FA-kNM3hc-kNw4Ap-7Xggbk-kNoQTy-kNP3qJ-kNoQKC-kNoR6h-kNw4px-kNmNfx-kNw4Ua-kNwHka-kNy5W5-kNmN1V-kNntiR-kNoQUL-kNwGTt-kNy5MY-kNP3Vm-kNM3ai-kNP3BW-kNP39G-kNM3mv-kNMHLR-chmUgU-chmUxq-kNy5wh-kNy69Q-kNwHSx-kNnt8v">airresources/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The interaction between states, and between <a href="http://www.climategroundswell.org/">states and nonstate actors</a>, has the potential for being increasingly collaborative and decreasingly confrontational. For example, the development of a <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/climate-action/global-climate-action-agenda">program engaging High Level Champions for Climate Action,</a> begun in Paris, came to fruition in Marrakech. This program gathered an unprecedented network of nonstate actors and put them in <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/climate-action/non-state-actors-partner-with-governments-to-boost-climate-action/">dialogue</a>. These dialogues, with the intent of increasing ambition from all parties, demonstrated a remarkable shift toward collaboration. </p>
<p>We saw these dialogues taking place in Marrakech. One example is the <a href="http://climatefinancelab.org">financial sector’s</a> engagement in the discussion of how rich countries provide money to poor countries to adapt to the effects of climate change. In one striking example, the World Bank voiced its <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/indigenouspeoples">engagement</a> with the distinctive perspectives of indigenous peoples for sustainable development. </p>
<p>Moreover, as part of a concerted effort to bring both public and private sectors to bear on climate change, <a href="http://climateaction.unfccc.int">a platform</a> was developed to showcase collaborative efforts, and motivate new partnerships and opportunities. </p>
<p>As Manuel Pulgar-Vidal noted in a <a href="https://seors.unfccc.int/seors/attachments/get_attachment?code=2WPEVEGKQHO5F3G5ZFDLC1B6GNKS5BIC">side event</a> to the talks in Marrakech, there used to be considerable tension and adversity between state and nonstate actors in previous years, most notably at COP19 in Warsaw. The <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/lpaa">Lima-Paris Action Agenda</a> was launched to overcome this tension and catalyze greater collaboration. In Marrakech, we have seen a much less confrontational atmosphere, and a corresponding change in the political environment. </p>
<h2>Three outcomes</h2>
<p>This evolving landscape has implications for how international collaborations to address climate change move forward, even with waning official U.S. engagement. </p>
<p>First, the addition of <a href="http://www.climategroundswell.org">nonstate actors</a> brings interests not typically reflected into the policy arena. For example, subnational bodies such as the state of California can bring in new perspectives on climate action initiatives that might not otherwise be available. Or, in another example, the inclusion of indigenous voices can bring in a set of interests that have not been sufficiently represented. </p>
<p>A broader array of resources, perspectives and expertise provides a more comprehensive approach to policy. Certainly, this diversity of perspectives brings new challenges in coordinating various groups and their interests, but it also opens new opportunities for cooperation.</p>
<p>Second, by including interests that are at least one step removed from formal political agents, the ongoing landscape will be separated from the four- or five-year time span of typical state-level elections. As one of us (<a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11948-016-9779-9">Boran</a>) has argued previously, multilateral engagement that promotes a diversity of perspectives, expertise and know-how can become a strength of long-term climate policy. This, it may be hoped, provides a better chance of developing and implementing approaches to climate mitigation, adaptation, and financial support on longer time scales.</p>
<p>Third, by bringing in nonstate actors there is greater potential for bilateral and multilateral engagement between drivers of climate action with overlapping interests. More agents in conversation open up new channels for collaboration, which is a better approach for the <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs13412-016-0400-y">complex challenges</a> presented by climate change. </p>
<h2>Hope beyond the state</h2>
<p>Clearly, the openness we saw in Marrakech to engage an increasingly wide range of actors in the global climate effort cannot be a substitute for the work nations have to do. But it may well prove at least as consequential in the long run as formal U.S. political engagement. And it may provide a new direction for the future of international collaboration and multilateralism. That should give us hope for progress on climate change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68946/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kenneth Shockley received funding from Colorado State University. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Idil Boran received funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC) and from York University. </span></em></p>Recent global climate talks at COP22 saw a growing role for businesses, NGOs and the state of California – a promising sign for action on climate change in the face of U.S. inaction.Kenneth Shockley, Associate Professor and Holmes Rolston III Professor of Environmental Ethics and Philosophy, Colorado State UniversityIdil Boran, Associate Professor of Political Philosophy, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/678722016-11-10T07:50:01Z2016-11-10T07:50:01ZMy experience as a climate negotiator tells me Marrakesh talks will not be easy<p>In a way, adopting the <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php">Paris climate agreement</a> was the easy part. </p>
<p>The agreement, which came into force mere days before the latest round of climate talks in Marrakesh, Morocco, is just a roadmap. Marrakesh has to turn this roadmap into reality through adoption of rules and procedures, all before 2018. </p>
<p>So the main focus at the summit will be on the adoption of rules for at least ten tracks of negotiations: adaptation to the effects of climate change, mitigation of further global warming, finance, loss and damage, technology, capacity building, transparency, global stocktake, compliance and cooperative approaches. </p>
<p>This vast array of subjects is most important to the world’s least developed countries: the nano-emitters of greenhouse gases that suffer the most from the impacts of climate change. The least developed countries negotiating bloc include nations as diverse as Bangladesh, home to 155 million people, to the tiny Timor Leste, population 1.1 million.</p>
<p>I have participated in climate negotiations for many years, representing Bangladesh. In Paris, we fought for a universal agreement, clear provisions for ambitious mitigation, adaptation action and adequate finance. Now at Marrakesh, we want to see more action on the ground. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144721/original/image-20161106-27914-et005a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144721/original/image-20161106-27914-et005a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144721/original/image-20161106-27914-et005a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144721/original/image-20161106-27914-et005a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144721/original/image-20161106-27914-et005a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144721/original/image-20161106-27914-et005a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144721/original/image-20161106-27914-et005a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The Paris Agreement is officially in place: what next?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jacky Naegelen/Reuters</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Show us the money</h2>
<p>The Paris Agreement establishes a global goal linking the needs to adapt to the effects of climate change to the level of mitigation – that is, how far we go to prevent it. A global assessment of progress every five years is expected to boost action on adaptation.</p>
<p>Climate finance stands at the core of concerns for the least developed countries, but on finance provision, the Paris Agreement is no better than its parent document, the <a href="http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/items/6036.php">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a>, adopted back in 1992. </p>
<p>The Paris Agreement does not mention the long-agreed principles of climate finance: that it should be new and additional money, as well as being adequate and predictable. There is now more apprehension that there will be more loans than grants for adaptation. </p>
<p>Still, the Paris Agreement is the first climate law where state obligations to finance have been linked to avoidance of 2°C temperature rise. </p>
<p>The least developed countries have also been accorded preferential treatment in adaptation finance, but the record shows only <a href="http://www.eurocapacity.org/downloads/FSFReview.pdf">one-fifth of adaptation finance</a> goes to them. Negotiators obviously want to see clear improvement on this. </p>
<h2>A question of trust</h2>
<p>There is a serious disagreement between the developed and developing countries over the former’s claims on yearly provision of climate finance. The least developed countries are ready to extend total cooperation to the Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technical Advice to help work out a clear and common accounting format on climate finance flow, so that it can be tracked. This is extremely important for trust building.</p>
<p>Finance for adaption will need more funding than currently exists in national budgets. There are ways around this. France, for example, leads an initiative to <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/euro-finance/news/france-strengthens-financial-transaction-tax-to-fund-development/">levy a tax on financial transactions</a>, to be distributed as climate finance. Some other industrial countries, such as the UK, already contribute <a href="http://www.unmillenniumproject.org/press/07.htm">0.7% of their national income</a> as overseas aid. </p>
<p>The hope in Marrakesh is that these countries will be willing to realise the long-agreed principles of climate finance – new, additional, adequate and predictable funding. Least developed countries must build stronger alliances with these progressive groups and countries to guarantee future climate finance. </p>
<h2>Canaries in the coal mine</h2>
<p>Achieving a low-carbon, climate-resilient world means providing poor countries with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/stop-sending-climate-consultants-to-poor-countries-invest-in-universities-instead-65135">capacity</a> to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to climate impacts themselves. </p>
<p>The Paris Agreement’s capacity-building provisions include the decision to establish a committee on capacity building, a transparency initiative, and the promotion of education, training and public awareness about climate change. The least developed countries regard these issues as fundamental for all other institutions, mechanisms and processes. </p>
<p>Basic human rights and the <a href="http://legalresponseinitiative.org/legaladvice/no-harm-rule-and-climate-change/">no-harm rule</a> have long been regarded as sacrosanct, particularly in Western countries. And holding on to a centuries-old view of sovereignty and national interest cannot deal with emerging global public threats like atmospheric pollution. </p>
<p>American scholar Joseph Nye has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/in-theory/wp/2016/01/29/politicians-say-american-leadership-is-in-decline-theyre-wrong/">cogently argued</a> that while the US has led in production of global public goods since World War II, now cooperation of other powerful states is needed, because power has become a positive-sum game. </p>
<p>As the canaries in the climate coal mine, the least developed countries must sing louder to grab the attention of major emitters, old and new. Joining together to solve the most diabolically complex global problem really is a positive-sum game.</p>
<h2>Hard negotiations</h2>
<p>My long experience as a negotiator is not very pleasant. The decision process at climate talks is consensus-based, and reaching agreement between 195 countries is an uphill battle. </p>
<p>The process is too slow, and a negotiator needs extra patience to endure. There are some parties that play the role of obstructionist in any decision to be adopted. So one has to endure lots of frequent huddling in the corner of meeting rooms to resolve the impasse. </p>
<p>After the adoption of the universal agreement in Paris last year, we in the least developed countries bloc hope that the traditional acrimony among the negotiating parties will gradually dissipate. Unless, of course, the issue of differing <a href="https://theconversation.com/all-eyes-on-marrakesh-climate-talks-as-the-paris-agreement-kicks-in-65778">responsibilities between rich and poor</a> becomes intractable again. </p>
<p>And as always, in disputes between the big emitters of the developed and developing worlds, it is the least developed countries that have the most to lose. In no way do we want this, because we cannot afford any more hurdles on the road to climate justice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67872/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mizan R Khan works for North South University. He is a negotiator with the Bangladesh delegation at the COP22 negotiations in Marrakesh. He receives no funding now from any organization.
</span></em></p>The Paris Agreement is in place, but there’s still much to lose for the least developed countries.Mizan R Khan, Professor, Department of Environmental Science and Management, North South UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/681402016-11-03T19:07:46Z2016-11-03T19:07:46ZThe Paris climate deal has come into force – what next for Australia?<p>The <a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf">Paris climate agreement</a> comes into legal force today, just 11 months after it was concluded and 30 days after it <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-climate-agreement-comes-into-force-now-time-for-australia-to-step-up-66559">met its ratification threshold</a> of 55 parties accounting for at least 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>By contrast, the <a href="http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php">Kyoto Protocol</a>, which this treaty now replaces, took more than 8 years to come into force, slowed by the United States’ persistent and erosive opposition.</p>
<p>At the time of writing, the Agreement has been <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php">ratified</a> by 94 parties, including the world’s four largest emitters: China, the United States, the European Union and India. As <a href="http://climateanalytics.org/hot-topics/ratification-%20tracker.html">Climate Analytics reports</a>, these nations account for 66% of greenhouse emissions. Even if the United States were to withdraw its support under a Trump presidency, the Paris Agreement will remain in force.</p>
<p>The unprecedented speed with which this has been achieved reflects the acute realisation in the international community – following the debacle of the Copenhagen negotiations in 2009 – that a failure to land this treaty quickly would probably have led to the collapse of the United Nations climate regime.</p>
<p>It also reflects the flexibility of the Agreement itself. Its curious mixture of binding and voluntary elements was designed to be attractive and accommodating, to include both developed and developing states and, specifically, to enable President Barack Obama to sidestep an obstructive US Congress in providing his support.</p>
<p>The result is a legal hybrid that obliges parties to abide by processes, mechanisms and timetables for setting and reviewing their national climate targets, and providing climate finance to developing countries.</p>
<p>But the treaty doesn’t compel those national efforts collectively to meet its <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465">core aims</a>: to keep global warming well below 2°C and as close as possible to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels; to peak global emissions as soon as possible; and to reach zero net global emissions in the second half of this century. Worse still, the currently pledged targets would <a href="https://theconversation.com/most-countries-need-to-at-least-double-their-efforts-on-climate-study-49731">deliver some 3°C of overall warming</a> by the end of this century.</p>
<p>Because the treaty relies on “intended” national climate targets rather than binding ones, much hinges on the success of the requirement for nations to review and toughen them every five years. The theory is that these global stocktakes of collective progress (beginning with a facilitative dialogue among parties in 2018) will generate enough pressure for individual nations to be encouraged to ratchet up their efforts as they go.</p>
<p>For these reasons – because of its emphasis on process and its lack of compliance mechanisms – the Agreement has been described as a <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09644016.2016.1191818?journalCode=fenp20">promissory note</a>, or prematurely <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-emissions-cuts-arent-enough-well-have-to-put-carbon-back-in-the-ground-52175">criticised as inadequate</a>.</p>
<h2>A work in progress</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-paris-what-was-really-achieved-at-the-cop21-climate-summit-and-what-next-52320">Euphoria greeted the successful conclusion</a> of the Paris summit last year, and 175 countries rushed to sign the Agreement when it <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-agreement-signing-ceremony-at-a-glance-58221">opened for signatures in April this year</a> (in all, 192 states have now done so). Nevertheless, given the Kyoto experience, few anticipated that this enthusiasm would carry the treaty across the ratification threshold so soon.</p>
<p>So while there will be more celebrations at <a href="http://unfccc.int/meetings/marrakech_nov_2016/meeting/9567.php">this year’s UN climate summit</a>, which begins in Marrakech on Monday, negotiators and UN bureaucrats have been caught out. In some senses, the Paris Agreement is a framework agreement within a Framework Agreement (the <a href="http://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/application/pdf/conveng.pdf">UN Framework Convention on Climate Change</a>, of which this is a subsidiary part). It’s a work in progress with lots of details yet to be filled in.</p>
<p>The newly formed <a href="http://unfccc.int/bodies/apa/body/9399.php">Ad Hoc Working Group on the Paris Agreement</a> will be scrambling to define key elements governing the new treaty’s implementation. Many of these elements are critical to the treaty’s long-term effectiveness. They include measures to ensure transparent and effective accounting of countries’ emissions reductions; to work out exactly how the ambition of “zero net emissions” will be met; and to transfer crucial economic measures used under the Kyoto Protocol over to the new framework.</p>
<p>The Agreement requests that this be done by the first session of the Conference of the Parties to the new treaty. As this now will occur in Marrakech, time is too short and such labour is likely to continue through 2017 and perhaps beyond.</p>
<h2>From Paris to Australia</h2>
<p>Australia is expected to ratify the Agreement <a href="http://foreignminister.gov.au/releases/Pages/2016/jb_mr_160831c.aspx">later this year</a>. When it does so, it will be committing itself to regularly increasing its efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, improve climate adaptation, and provide climate finance.</p>
<p>Like other nations, Australia will have to review and toughen its climate targets every five years, starting no later than 2020, and report back regularly on its efforts.</p>
<p>While Australia’s 2020 and 2030 emissions targets are <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-2030-climate-target-puts-us-in-the-race-but-at-the-back-45931">seen as weak</a> by international standards, doubts have still been expressed about the federal government’s ability to reach them. </p>
<p><a href="http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/australia.html">Modelling</a> suggests Australia’s emissions are projected to rise to 21% above 2005 levels by 2030 – rather than fall by the 26-28% proclaimed in its <a href="http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Australia/1/Australias%20Intended%20Nationally%20Determined%20Contribution%20to%20a%20new%20Climate%20Change%20Agreement%20-%20August%202015.pdf">official target</a>.</p>
<p>Australia’s <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction-fund">Emissions Reduction Fund</a> has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/on-these-numbers-australias-emissions-auction-wont-get-the-job-done-40761">criticised</a> as being underfunded and focused on the wrong projects. <a href="https://www.greeninstitute.org.au/sites/default/files/Mulga_Bill_Web_BM%2B_0.pdf">Recent analysis</a> of the contracts awarded through the scheme’s “reverse auctions” confirms that little real additional abatement has been achieved.</p>
<p>Moreover, likely future changes in land use and forestry (mainly reductions in land clearing) will be insufficient to achieve these goals in isolation or to contribute significantly to future ones. The current policy mix means that tougher – and perhaps even existing - national targets could only be met by buying international carbon credits.</p>
<p>In addition, Australia’s reports to the UN will have to reflect “environmental integrity, transparency, accuracy, completeness, comparability and consistency in accordance to rules to be adopted by parties to the Agreement”. The transparency and accountability of Australia’s emissions reporting was recently <a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2016/trr/aus.pdf">questioned by the United Nations</a> and by other parties to the Climate Convention. This too will have to improve.</p>
<p>Like other parties, by 2020 Australia will also be invited to provide the UN Climate Secretariat with a long-term low-carbon strategy to run until 2050. Designing an effective transition strategy will require extensive consultation with state and territory governments, industries, and other stakeholders. Such attention to detail, although essential for building wide and deep support for a future low-carbon economy, has so far been well beyond the ability of politicians stuck in Canberra’s toxic climate policy culture.</p>
<p>In all, the Paris Agreement, although voluntary, can be thought of as a global climate safety net held by all nations. This inclusiveness means that Australia will no longer be able to point to the absence of other states as an excuse for its recalcitrance. It will increasingly be held to account by other nations, and the need for meaningful action will become ever more irresistible, as the net gradually tightens.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68140/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Christoff does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Just 11 months after the Paris climate talks, the resulting treaty has come into force. The rapid ratification looks set to heap even more pressure on Australia to come up with a credible climate policy.Peter Christoff, Associate Professor, School of Geography, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/674872016-11-03T00:17:37Z2016-11-03T00:17:37ZGlobal climate talks move to Marrakesh: Here’s what they need to achieve<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143921/original/image-20161031-15779-sp3pe2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Global climate negotiators come to Marrakesh to talk about how to transfer money from rich to poor countries for climate adaptation, among other issues. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/leungchitak/412969837/">leungchitak/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Even though <a href="http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/">evidence</a> on an ever-worsening global climate keeps pouring in with alarming frequency, the last 12 months have, in fact, been a relatively <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/23/the-guardian-view-on-climate-change-good-news-but-not-yet-good-enough?CMP=share_btn_tw">good year for global climate policy</a>. Next week, the world’s countries meet in Marrakesh, Morocco, to follow up on the gains made at Paris last year, and to try to reconcile these two facts.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.cop22.ma">22nd conference of the parties (COP22)</a> to the U.N. climate change convention in Marrakesh will not result in a grand agreement or the grandiose chest-thumping that characterized its <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-agreement-on-climate-change-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-52242">Paris predecessor</a>. Yet, this meeting is a critical test of whether the parties to the Paris Agreement are willing to realize, or capable of realizing, the promise of Paris and creating a momentum for action. </p>
<h2>Post-Paris cheers</h2>
<p>COP22 will begin with good wind behind its sails, but under some very ominous clouds. </p>
<p>The most visible political gain has been the ratification <a href="http://www.undispatch.com/paris-agreement-coming/">in record time</a> of the Paris Agreement, which <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9444.php">enters into force</a> Nov. 4. By joining, countries have shown a willingness to act on reducing national emissions, although they stopped <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465">short of taking on legal commitments</a>. Notwithstanding the fact that the agreement is weak in terms of legally binding obligations, this rapid ratification signifies an important global buy-in. </p>
<p>Related signs of hope come from the two largest emitters, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-renewables-investment-idUSKCN0WQ1IU">China</a> and the <a href="http://www.bna.com/us-unveil-path-n57982079137/">United States</a>, that have begun investing in meaningful domestic initiatives. This is assisted by a palpable shift in the market economics of <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37767250">renewables</a>, especially wind and solar, whose costs in some parts of the world is now <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-g7-japan-energy-irena-idUSKCN0XT19H">rivaling or less than coal</a>.</p>
<p>By far the most important potential game changer in real climatic terms was the agreement in October to <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-37665529">phase out the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)</a>, a strong greenhouse gas. If fully implemented, this could remove the equivalent of <a href="http://www.ipsnews.net/2016/10/climate-deal-on-hfcs-2/">70 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide</a> from the atmosphere by 2050, mostly by developing countries.</p>
<p>Less consequential is the decision by the International Civil Aviation Organization to manage carbon dioxide <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-37573434">emissions from international aviation</a> through a carbon offset system. But it is still a step in the right direction. Unfortunately, the International Maritime Organization remained reluctant to agree to similar baby steps for the <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/shipping-industry-postpones-climate-plan-until-2023-20831">international shipping industry</a>. </p>
<h2>Post-Paris tears</h2>
<p>On the other hand, the growing set of new scientific evidence confirms climate change is no longer an issue of the future; it is the most pressing challenge of now. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/august-ties-july-as-hottest-month-on-record-20691">Every month</a> this year has been the hottest ever recorded for that month since measurement began. This was yet another year of <a href="http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/09/16/arctic-summer-sea-ice-going-down-down-down/?module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog%20Main&contentCollection=arctic&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body">alarming Arctic ice melt</a>. And <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/20/science/2016-global-warming-record-temperatures-climate-change.html">2016</a> is poised to be the globally <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/climate-trends-continue-to-break-records">hottest</a> year ever in historical record and the <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201513">40th consecutive year</a> that the annual temperature would be above the 20th-century average. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143916/original/image-20161031-15821-1ue1c9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143916/original/image-20161031-15821-1ue1c9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143916/original/image-20161031-15821-1ue1c9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143916/original/image-20161031-15821-1ue1c9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143916/original/image-20161031-15821-1ue1c9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143916/original/image-20161031-15821-1ue1c9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143916/original/image-20161031-15821-1ue1c9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143916/original/image-20161031-15821-1ue1c9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Signs of a hotter world: Measurements show the Arctic and other parts of the world reaching temperatures much higher than historical averages.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The urgency of global climate change is evidenced by the discovery that the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have crossed <a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2016/1024/CO2-levels-hit-400-ppm-milestone-A-prompt-to-turn-Paris-deal-into-action">400 parts per million</a> and are unlikely to drop below this level in our lifetime. There should no longer be any doubt that we are quickly running out of time. </p>
<p>As its host Morocco bills Marrakesh as <a href="http://www.cop22.ma/en/cop22-marrakech-cop-action">“The COP of Action,”</a> COP22 should be judged by the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/30/25-years-cop-failures-paris-climate-change-pakistan-binding-agreements">extent and urgency of implementable action</a> that it triggers in three critical areas: mitigation, adaptation and financing. And, within these, by how much attention and investment is directed towards the needs of the most vulnerable countries. </p>
<h2>Mitigation: Raise ambitions</h2>
<p>The goals of the <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php">Paris Agreement</a> are to reach a global peak in GHG emissions as soon as possible with the intent of holding global average temperature increases to well below 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. </p>
<p>In support of this, countries have formulated their voluntary commitments for the post-2020 period in the form of <a href="http://unfccc.int/focus/ndc_registry/items/9433.php">Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)</a>. There will be an informal dialogue of these NDCs in 2018 and a formal stocktaking to revisit these targets in 2023.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143922/original/image-20161031-15783-6ttnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143922/original/image-20161031-15783-6ttnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143922/original/image-20161031-15783-6ttnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143922/original/image-20161031-15783-6ttnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143922/original/image-20161031-15783-6ttnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143922/original/image-20161031-15783-6ttnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143922/original/image-20161031-15783-6ttnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143922/original/image-20161031-15783-6ttnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The greenhouse gas cuts suggested by the world’s countries in their national plans, even if fully implemented, will not achieve the temperature targets they set for themselves in Paris.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/9240.php">UN Framework Convention on Climate Change</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, the current suite of NDCs is simply <a href="http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/indc/Submission%20Pages/submissions.aspx">not up to the task</a>. Even with full implementation, there will be an estimated global average temperature increase of between <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v534/n7609/abs/nature18307.html">2.6°C and 3.1°C by 2100</a>. Waiting for 2018 or 2023 to review national commitments is too long and condemns the planet to a significant level of warming. For some island states, this could mean devastation.</p>
<p>There is a need to quickly raise ambitions. To come anywhere near the goals they have set for themselves for the next 10-15 years, countries need to have already started making significant, visible cuts in emissions. Most have not. Marrakesh needs to push countries to increased ambition and accelerated emission cuts. </p>
<h2>Adaptation: Real resources needed</h2>
<p>Living as we already do in the <a href="https://www.bu.edu/pardeeschool/2015/11/12/najam-talks-about-living-in-the-age-of-adaptation/">“Age of Adaptation,”</a> it would be tragedy compounded if adaptation were to become the lost issue of the Paris Agreement. </p>
<p>For many countries – especially the most vulnerable developing countries that have had the least to do with causing the problem and are least able to cope with its impacts – adaptation is not insurance for the future; it is an <a href="http://www.un.org/press/en/2010/sgsm12741.doc.htm">urgent need of today</a>. Most often, the biggest challenges relate to <a href="http://www.bu.edu/pardeeschool/2015/02/16/najam-climate-change-food-water-security/">water and agriculture</a>. </p>
<p>The issue is one of resources and investment. There are <a href="http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/12/what-does-paris-agreement-mean-climate-resilience-and-adaptation">plenty of dedicated funds</a> established to provide money for adaptation measures. Too often, however, industrialized countries have failed to fulfill their pledges, and access to funds is made difficult by complex procedure and criteria. </p>
<p>Marrakesh needs to ensure that real money is available for adaptation, including a greater share of resources from developed countries dedicated to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/oct/17/climate-change-could-drive-122m-more-people-into-extreme-poverty-by-2030-un-united-nations-report">climate change action in developing countries</a>. And funds need to be accessible to the countries most in need and on terms that meet their own national capabilities and priorities.</p>
<h2>Financing: Show me the $100B</h2>
<p>The Paris Agreement calls on all countries to ensure that finance flows worldwide are consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development.</p>
<p>Developed countries have pledged to mobilize jointly at least <a href="http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/en/one-hundred-billion-dollars/">US$100 billion a year</a> from public and private sources in support of mitigation and adaptation in developing countries by 2020, to be scaled up over time as part of the implementation of the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>Finance discussions, however, are <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-biggest-sticking-point-in-paris-climate-talks-money-49193">plagued by political disagreements</a> over what should legitimately be counted as climate finance as well as data uncertainties and difficulties in correctly calculating contributions <a href="http://people.bu.edu/selin/publications/SelinClimateFinance2016.pdf">from different sources</a>. </p>
<p>Developing countries, especially <a href="http://www.thecvf.org">small island states</a>, worry that much of this will be “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/07/paris-climate-change-deal-summit-guide">imaginary money</a>” that will never materialize – at least not in ways in which it can be deployed toward addressing their climate vulnerabilities and survival needs. </p>
<p>COP22 needs to directly address the issue and the legitimate concerns of different stakeholders. A reasonable goal for Marrakesh would be to bring more clarity to the finance issue including what dollars count, how and for what, and how they flow, to whom and for what priorities.</p>
<h2>Make Marrakesh the ‘Action COP’</h2>
<p>COP21 at Paris set for itself the goal of <a href="https://theconversation.com/your-brief-to-the-paris-un-climate-talks-how-we-got-here-and-what-to-watch-for-45919">delivering an agreement</a>. It did. COP22 in Marrakesh has a much more difficult, and important, goal. It must deliver action. This is not going to be easy. </p>
<p>If Marrakesh can build on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-agreement-on-climate-change-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-52242">policy momentum of Paris</a> and the dire scientific warnings that have become irrefutable to spur countries to real action, then it would achieve <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/30/25-years-cop-failures-paris-climate-change-pakistan-binding-agreements">a historic and heroic feat</a> worthy of a true “Action COP.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67487/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adil Najam has served as a delegate to multiple climate negotiations, including at Kyoto, Copenhagen and Paris. He also serves on the Board of WWF-International and LEAD-Pakistan and is the Chair of the Board of the South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics (SANDEE). He has also served as a Lead and Convening Lead Author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its third and fourth assessments. All views expressed here are his own and do not represent any organizational affiliation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henrik Selin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Negotiators face a daunting task at the COP22 climate talks in Marrakesh: Build on the momentum of Paris and resolve difficult questions over money for poor countries.Adil Najam, Dean, Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston UniversityHenrik Selin, Associate Professor in the Frederick S Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/563432016-03-16T19:16:19Z2016-03-16T19:16:19ZMary Robinson: ‘climate justice’ must play a key role in the Paris Agreement<p><em>Mary Robinson, the first female president of Ireland, gave a speech in Melbourne on March 15. Robinson, who served between 1990 and 1997, has since gone on to play an active role in international climate negotiations.</em></p>
<p><em>As special envoy on climate change to the UN Secretary-General, Robinson negotiated with world leaders ahead of the successful Paris climate summit in December 2015.</em> </p>
<p><em>Through her work on climate change Robinson is an active proponent of “climate justice”, which advocates sharing the burden of mitigating and adapting to climate change between all parts of society, and particularly between developed and developing nations.</em> </p>
<p><em>In Melbourne she addressed the growing role of climate justice in climate talks and in bringing the Paris Agreement into force. The following is a summary of Robinson’s key points.</em></p>
<h2>Climate justice no longer just for NGOs</h2>
<p>In 2011 in Durban, South Africa, a new negotiating group was established to begin deliberations on a climate agreement to begin after 2020. </p>
<p>At that time, “climate justice” sat squarely in the remit of non-governmental organisations but was not used in official discussions. </p>
<p>Four years later, at the Paris climate conference, the call for climate justice was brought inside the walls of the negotiations. It is even included in the preamble to <a href="https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf">the official Paris Agreement</a>. </p>
<p>As Robinson put it: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>climate justice is no longer a narrative only used by civil society. It is now part of the lexicon of at least 24 world leaders, eight business organisations and 27 countries.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>According to the <a href="http://www.mrfcj.org/">Mary Robinson Foundation</a>, climate justice “links human rights and development to achieve a human-centred approach” to climate change action. </p>
<p>It is the concept that fairness must be an integral and driving element of climate decision-making.</p>
<h2>Is climate justice reflected in the Paris Agreement?</h2>
<p>A commonly cited criticism of the Paris Agreement is that it relies on the use of under-developed <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-need-to-get-serious-about-negative-emissions-technology-fast-52549">negative emissions technologies</a> and thus may be unrealistically ambitious. </p>
<p>However, elements of the Paris Agreement are encouraging.</p>
<p>On diplomacy, Robinson highlighted the important work that many and diverse actors undertook in the lead-up to the Paris conference. She also saluted the efforts of French diplomacy, which avoided diluting the participation of poorer countries. </p>
<p>She heralded the creation of a coalition that managed to secure a tightened global warming target of 1.5°C, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-matter-of-degrees-why-2c-warming-is-officially-unsafe-42308">critical issue for many low-lying countries</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Presidents and senior ministers from the small island states could not come back from Paris without [an agreement featuring a target of] 1.5°C, because they would be committing national suicide.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>On science, Robinson conceded that the Paris Agreement does not deliver what the science demands. If all emissions reduction efforts pledged by all nations are fully implemented, the world is still on track for more than 2°C. </p>
<p>However, she stressed that the agreement is informed by the science and will be reviewed and upgraded in response to science, referring to the legally binding requirement that all countries periodically review and revise their pledges — there can be no backsliding.</p>
<p>On law, Robinson emphasised the need for transparency and accountability to enable oversight by government, civil society and citizens. What Paris has delivered is a legally binding pathway, but this is only part of the puzzle. National legislation will be required to ensure that the agreement is actually implemented. </p>
<p>According to <a href="http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Global_climate_legislation_study_20151.pdf">a study by the Grantham Institute</a>, this is already in train. In the 99 countries surveyed in the study, there were 54 national laws and policies directly related to climate change mitigation and adaptation in 1997. By 2009 that number had climbed to 426. By 2014, it had almost doubled to 804.</p>
<h2>Building an agenda through climate justice</h2>
<p>However, climate laws and policies have not always been positively linked to human rights. In many cases, climate policies have been harmful to local communities. For example, corn ethanol policies have in the past driven up food prices in Mexico and other parts of Central America. </p>
<p>For climate justice to inform how the Paris Agreement is implemented there needs to be a special focus on the Sustainable Development Goals and the right to development for all countries. According to <a href="http://www.mrfcj.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/2015-02-05-Zero-Carbon-Zero-Poverty-the-Climate-Justice-Way.pdf">research from the Mary Robinson Foundation</a>, zero carbon and zero poverty are complementary goals. </p>
<p>Developing countries are where much climate action needs to take place, but for low-carbon transformation these countries need access to finance:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It is our responsibility but it is also in our collective self-interest to help developing countries transition. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>There is also a need for access to information and participation. According to Robinson, a participatory approach shouldn’t be just because it’s right but because it works. </p>
<p>The Paris climate talks may have been such a success because there was an inclusive space for all voices to be heard. This needs to happen at all levels, internationally, nationally and sub-nationally. She cited the now non-profit Australian Climate Council (formerly the government-initiated Climate Commission) as a model for this sort of participation. </p>
<h2>Tasks for Australia</h2>
<p>According to Robinson, Australians have some homework to do after the Paris conference.</p>
<p>The first is to get ourselves into a 1.5°C mindset. We need a research agenda that explores what it means to limit warming to 1.5°C. Australia, like many developed countries, still has a 2°C mindset.</p>
<p>The second is to begin shaping the rules. Legal scholars need to determine how we integrate transparency, accountability and justice into the rules of law. </p>
<p>The third is to ensure that Australia ratifies the Paris Agreement on April 22 in New York. The treaty does not come into force until 30 days after it has been ratified by at least 55 countries representing at least 55% of global emissions. </p>
<p>The fourth is to accelerate a transition to renewable energy. </p>
<p>The fifth and final task is to attend to a marriage between the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals. Together these agreements forge a pathway to 2030 and beyond.</p>
<p>According to Robinson:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Nobody is pretending that the job to 2050 will be easy but Australia is a country with a can-do attitude; a country where people get involved and where communities thrive. You, in Australia, are lucky. You could be world leaders in emissions reduction because you have the benefits of renewable energy technology.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><em>Mary Robinson spoke at the <a href="http://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/oration2016">inaugural Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute (MSSI) address</a> on March 15, 2016.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56343/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anita Talberg receives an Australian Postgraduate Award PhD scholarship</span></em></p>The burden of mitigating and adapting to climate change must be shared between all parts of society.Dr Anita Talberg, PhD student in the Australian-German Climate and Energy College, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/516262015-12-05T09:28:24Z2015-12-05T09:28:24ZParis climate talks slow to a crawl as obstructionists threaten the deal<p>Hopes are high that a strong climate treaty can be hammered out here in Paris, amid a groundswell of climate action around the world.</p>
<p>But there is little sign of this urgency inside the negotiating halls themselves, and the talks have fallen into many of the same traps that befell the underwhelming Copenhagen summit six years ago.</p>
<p>Negotiators have spent the summit’s opening days working tirelessly to trim down the <a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/adp2/eng/11infnot.pdf">54-page draft text</a> of the Paris agreement into a shorter version to take into week two of the talks. The fact that the current text is still 48 pages long speaks volumes about the pace of the negotiations. </p>
<p>Each of the different sections of the draft agreement (climate finance, adaptation, emissions targets, and so on) are being worked on by numerous negotiating groups. </p>
<p>At any given time, there might be several smaller meetings taking place for different paragraphs, or even individual sentences, for each topic. The abundance of constant meetings is wearing negotiators ragged. Developing countries’ delegations, which are notoriously understaffed, have repeatedly complained of suffering from overstretch and exhaustion. But there is simply no other way forward.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, many issues have been going backwards. The discussion on legal form (whether the Paris agreement will be a <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-the-paris-agreement-be-legally-binding-48759">legally binding treaty</a>) is one example. Tuesday’s initial discussion of this issue lasted for more than three hours and resulted in a longer text with more disputed sections. This is by no means an exception. </p>
<p>The actions of certain delegations have contributed significantly to this. Saudi Arabia is traditionally known as an obstructionist in the climate talks. Its delegates have lived up to their reputation in Paris. </p>
<p>Bracketing text suggests that the wording is up for deletion, or is at least disputed. A Saudi negotiator will often briskly walk into a negotiating session, bracket some text, question the procedures, engage little thereafter, and leave before the session is closed. </p>
<p>Stalling tactics and bracketing numerous paragraphs across the agreement have been used to slow the negotiations to a snail’s pace.</p>
<p>Despite the wider political momentum on climate action outside these walls, the negotiations themselves tend to operate in a bubble. They are strangled by arcane procedures and old ideological battles. </p>
<h2>Working a treaty</h2>
<p>A key point of debate is whether or not the Paris climate agreement will be classed as an international treaty. It’s a delicate issue that has already threatened to stall the talks. </p>
<p>In one sense, this legal issue is very straightforward. A treaty, defined under the <a href="https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%201155/volume-1155-I-18232-English.pdf">Vienna Convention</a>, is an agreement that is binding under international law. So an agreement is either a treaty or not. This depends on some legal interpretation as there is no direct branding of an agreement as a treaty per se. A treaty is binding under international law, while an agreement only has political force.</p>
<p>Going into the negotiations, it seemed obvious that the Paris agreement would almost certainly be an international treaty. Countries’ climate targets would remain non-binding and nationally determined, but the agreement itself – including issues such as how often to review the targets – would be a treaty.</p>
<p>The opening days suggest that this may not be the case. The legal form of Paris is still very much up for grabs.</p>
<p>During the opening discussions Tuvalu wanted to insert text which would imply that the Paris outcome would be a treaty. But the United States expressed concerns and wanted to bracket Tuvalu’s suggestion. Saudi Arabia then suggested bracketing the entire paragraph. </p>
<p>Tensions flared, which is why the session lasted three hours and resulted in an even more complex and difficult piece of text. </p>
<p>This is coupled with last month’s <a href="http://europe.newsweek.com/paris-climate-agreement-not-legally-binding-john-kerry-336435">declaration</a> by US Secretary of State John Kerry that Paris would not result in a legal treaty. Paris, like Copenhagen, may not result in a legally binding deal. But of course, the negotiations are not over yet. </p>
<h2>What’s the plan from here?</h2>
<p>The negotiations are scheduled to end on Friday December 11. The plan is to have a final draft of the agreement prepared much earlier than that – ideally by the summit’s middle weekend. The key undecided issues will then be worked out during the early stages of the second week, during the “high-level” sessions attended by ministers. </p>
<p>The finalised agreement will then be agreed on Thursday 10 December and legally adopted the following day, after which negotiators will crack open the champagne before returning home triumphant on the Saturday. </p>
<p>That’s the plan – but it will almost certainly not pan out like that.</p>
<h2>What will really happen?</h2>
<p>The text is supposed to be handed over today, but at the current rate, the negotiations may need an extra day or two to produce a suitable draft. </p>
<p>The current draft is almost certainly too controversial and unwieldy to be worked out quickly over a few days, and rumours abound that the French host delegation is <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2015/12/03/paris-draft-text-will-be-binned-expert">preparing its own alternative text</a> should the negotiations stall completely.</p>
<p>However, the arrival of ministers on Monday could help to shift the talks forward. Or it could simply entrench the existing negotiating positions, and lead to lowest-common-denominator compromises being made at the last minute. </p>
<p>In the worst-case scenario, the planned treaty could give way to collapse or a smaller agreement between the major powers. If that happened, we would be staring down the barrel of another Copenhagen.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/51626/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luke Kemp has received funding from the Australian and German governments. </span></em></p>At the halfway mark in the Paris climate talks, progress is still frustratingly slow as the negotiations risk falling prey to old stalling tactics.Luke Kemp, Lecturer and PhD Candidate in International Relations and Environmental Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/504002015-11-10T19:22:24Z2015-11-10T19:22:24ZBusiness is picking up the pace ahead of the Paris climate summit<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101342/original/image-20151110-29309-di74ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ahead of the Paris climate summit businesses have made pledges, including to purchase power from renewable generation. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com">Wind turbine image from www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last week 12 Australian companies committed to strong measures to tackle climate change at the Australian Climate Leadership Summit in Sydney. Many of these companies are household names, including the National Australia Bank, Westpac, AGL and Origin.</p>
<p>The announcement followed the peak bodies’ <a href="http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/verve/_resources/Climate_roundtable_joint_principles_290615.pdf">statement</a> in June pledging their support to the global goal of limiting climate change to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and acknowledging that this will require most countries, including Australia, eventually to reduce net emissions to zero or below. </p>
<p>The commitment by these companies is consistent with <a href="http://climateworks.com.au/sites/default/files/documents/publications/climateworks_pdd2050_initialreport_20140923.pdf">ClimateWorks Australia’s research</a> with ANU and CSIRO that shows Australia can substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions – to <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-can-stop-greenhouse-gas-emissions-by-2050-heres-how-44175">net zero</a> by 2050 – while still growing the economy. </p>
<p>These announcements signal the momentum of business action on climate change is increasing in the lead-up to the Paris conference. It also sends a signal to the Australian Government that even greater emissions reductions are possible.</p>
<h2>Businesses leading the way</h2>
<p>In Australia and around the world, many businesses are adapting to the challenges of climate change and moving towards a low carbon economy. These businesses are making the shift from seeing climate change mitigation as a cost, to seeing it as an opportunity.</p>
<p>Partly this is been driven by businesses wanting to mitigate risk, rising energy costs and respond to stakeholders’ concerns about climate change. Yet, the Paris climate process has also been a catalyst for many new groups of businesses taking action.</p>
<p>One such action group, <a href="http://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org">We Mean Business</a> started just 14 months ago asking businesses to sign up to its seven pledges including adopting a science-based target, putting a price on carbon, and purchasing 100% of electricity from renewable sources. </p>
<p>To date, over 250 companies and 144 investors have signed up to more than 600 commitments to tackle climate change. These companies represent US$5.7 trillion in total revenue and US$19.5 trillion in assets under management.</p>
<p>About 40 Australian companies have signed on to key climate commitments, including Australia’s largest energy retailer, Origin Energy, which signed up to all seven of the commitments.</p>
<p>Over 20 large multinational companies including Goldman Sachs, H&M, IKEA, Nike, Mars, Nestle, Unilever and Swiss have joined the <a href="http://there100.org/">RE100</a> initiative and have committed to going 100% renewable.</p>
<p>Pledges are compiled by the United Nations’ <a href="http://climateaction.unfccc.int">NAZCA platform</a>, which registers all commitments to climate action by companies, cities, subnational regions and investors to address climate change. To date, more than 900 cities, 100 regions, 1,700 companies and 400 investors around the world have pledged over 6,500 commitments to reduce emissions.</p>
<p>In a similar vein, a group of international business leaders, running some of the world’s largest companies, established <a href="http://bteam.org">The B Team</a> to push for a better way of doing business that takes account of the wellbeing of people and the planet.</p>
<p>The organisation recently called on governments to commit to a global goal of net zero emissions by 2050 and will shortly be announcing companies pledging to be net zero companies.</p>
<h2>Putting words into action</h2>
<p>Progressive companies have begun setting ambitious emissions reduction targets, reporting emissions and shifting to low carbon technologies. Others are turning ideas into reality and delivering practical solutions on the ground.</p>
<p>For example, construction company SOM sculptured the 309-metre-tall <a href="http://www.som.com/projects/pearl_river_tower">Pearl River Tower</a> in China so it directs wind to in-built turbines that generate energy for the building. </p>
<p>Car and battery company Tesla is set on developing a mass market for electric vehicles. There is already a <a href="http://www.solarimpulse.com/">solar plane</a> travelling around the world. </p>
<p>Energy giant AGL <a href="https://www.agl.com.au/%7E/media/AGL/About%20AGL/Documents/Media%20Center/Corporate%20Governance%20Policies%20Charter/1704015_GHG_Policy_Final.pdf">announced</a> it will close down its coal-fired power stations in 2050 (still too slow but a strong first step from the sector), Shell is stopping drilling for oil in the Artic, and Australia’s major banks are also making overarching commitments to limit global warming to 2°C.</p>
<h2>Deeper cuts possible</h2>
<p>There is no doubt the momentum is building for businesses to go “green”. So too is the ability to do it, thanks to rapid advancements in technology. Businesses are putting themselves in the spotlight and willing to be held accountable to their shareholders for their environmental management. </p>
<p>However, Australia cannot just rely on business action if we are to achieve the substantial emissions reductions needed to avoid dangerous climate change. Leading businesses are making these pledges in good faith but they are only voluntary and not yet universal. </p>
<p>In addition, practical measures being adopted by businesses to reduce emissions are still in the early stages and there needs to be an acceleration of actions to reach even our 2030 emissions reduction target.</p>
<p>To beat the ticking carbon budget clock, the pace of business progress needs a policy nudge. A suite of policy and regulation is still needed to accelerate business efforts and ensure broad coverage of emissions reductions across the entire economy.</p>
<p>The real contribution these pledges can make is to show the Australian government what can be achieved. The ramping up of business action on climate change should give the government confidence it can achieve more emissions reductions and set policies that aim considerably higher than the current targets.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/50400/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Skarbek is CEO of ClimateWorks which receives funding from The Myer Foundation and Monash University, and has undertaken projects funded by various federal and state government departments and agencies, peak industry bodies, corporations and philanthropic foundations. </span></em></p>What have businesses put on the table ahead of the Paris climate summit in December?Anna Skarbek, CEO at ClimateWorks Australia, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/395912015-04-07T20:16:13Z2015-04-07T20:16:13ZWhy the Paris climate talks won’t be another Copenhagen<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76800/original/image-20150401-31302-2e475x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=13%2C26%2C2973%2C1958&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">UN lead climate negotiator Christiana Figueres (second from left) has been hailed as having the dynamism needed to drive the Paris talks.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This is part 2 of a three-part essay on the prospects for a global climate deal at the Paris 2015 talks. You can read part 1 <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-to-paris-three-myths-about-international-climate-talks-38053">here</a>.</em></p>
<p>For three years leading up to the last significant United Nations climate summit, at <a href="http://unfccc.int/meetings/copenhagen_dec_2009/meeting/6295.php">Copenhagen in 2009</a>, I was the strategic director of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copenhagen_Climate_Council">Copenhagen Climate Council</a>. The purpose of this group – which included chief executives of major global businesses headquartered in China, Europe, and the United States, as well as policy experts, scientists and other leading academics – was to shed light on the importance of reaching a global climate agreement, and to define what that agreement should include.</p>
<p>Copenhagen looked like having the right ingredients to deliver such a deal – the “Goldilocks’ porridge” of international climate talks, if you will. It was convened in the right place (a European capital), at the right time (after public and elite awareness had been raised, by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report and by catastrophes such as Hurricane Katrina and the 2003 European heatwave), and involved the right participants (heads of state able to make major economic, energy and trade policy decisions).</p>
<p>And yet despite all this, the meeting failed to achieve anything more than a flimsy two pages of text – the <a href="http://unfccc.int/meetings/copenhagen_dec_2009/items/5262.php">Copenhagen Accord</a> – which committed signatories to nothing more than agreeing to agree in the future and to account for existing policy commitments. Copenhagen has become shorthand for the world’s failure to get its act together and address the climate problem properly.</p>
<p>I still recall how deflated I felt on leaving the enormous Bella Centre on the outskirts of the city, on the freezing December Saturday after the talks ended. Looking out of the window of the modern, driverless electric subway train quietly taking me back to the city, I saw a group of young children playing in the snow. They didn’t know it, but they had been let down by the people in the vast conference centre. I thought it would be years before anything like the opportunity represented by Copenhagen would occur again.</p>
<h2>Reasons to be cheerful</h2>
<p>More than five years have passed, and I am more optimistic. With eight months to go until the Paris talks, there are solid reasons to be more than hopeful.</p>
<p>First, there is now an awareness (born of experience more than analysis) that the problem is not some future risk, but a real and present danger. No longer does one have to undertake much research to put forward evidence of a more unstable, warmer climate. It is continuous. Last year was the world’s <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/press/2015/january/nasa-determines-2014-warmest-year-in-modern-record/#.VRvlLTuUckQ">hottest on record</a>, and the past month has brought us <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/cyclone-pam">Cyclone Pam</a>, one of the strongest cyclones ever recorded, and seen California spend another <a href="http://www.latimes.com/local/political/la-me-pc-jerry-brown-signs-water-bill-20150327-story.html">US$1 billion</a> on trying to tackle its drought.</p>
<p>No single event can be directly attributed to human-induced climate change, but their occurrence and severity are utterly consistent with a stream of climate models and predictions going back to the 1980s.</p>
<p>China, Brazil, Indonesia and other rapidly developing countries no longer need convincing of the need to make big emissions cuts. It is their experience of the costs of climate events that have already occurred which has helped to break down the divisions between “developing” and “developed” nations. They all see the benefits in a globally agreed deal that they can contribute to through adopting a low-carbon growth path.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.webcitation.org/5nCeyEYJr">Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change</a> showed that the trade-offs between high- and low-carbon economic growth path are meaningless: to be sustainable, economic growth must be low-carbon. Nine years after the review, and with abundant <a href="http://newclimateeconomy.net">work</a> revealing the tangible benefits of transforming the global economy while weaning ourselves off fossils fuels, the debates are now less about the need to reduce emissions at scale, and more about how to do it most effectively.</p>
<h2>Boosting security</h2>
<p>The second reason for optimism is that, unlike at Copenhagen, many countries see an effective climate agreement as more than an end in itself. It is also a vital means to address other global challenges. There is a growing, pragmatic appreciation of the relationship between effective climate policy and efforts to reduce further long-term environmental, societal, economic and security risks. <a href="http://yearsoflivingdangerously.com">Human movements from flooding in Bangladesh</a>; <a href="http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2014/06/24-water-scarcity-growth-prospects-middle-east-north-africa-devlin">water scarcity in Africa and the Middle East</a>, and <a href="http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/impacts/effects-of-tidal-flooding-and-sea-level-rise-east-coast-gulf-of-mexico">sea level rise affecting major cities</a> are all scenarios that will only intensify existing tensions and problems. </p>
<p>US president Barack Obama’s new <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/02/06/fact-sheet-2015-national-security-strategy">National Security Strategy</a> has listed climate change as a security risk on a par with factors like a catastrophic attack on the United States, or the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The Pentagon’s positioning of the issue of emissions reductions as crucial to future health and security greatly enhances the likelihood of a global diplomatic agreement.</p>
<p>A third reason for optimism is one man: the President of the United States. It isn’t fashionable to fete our politicians, but Obama, in the months leading up to the meeting in Paris, is a real source of hope. In his second term, he has already expended a huge amount of political capital on the climate problem. Through his lobbying of other leaders and the bilateral agreements with <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/us-china-climate-deal">China</a> and <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/01/25/fact-sheet-us-and-india-climate-and-clean-energy-cooperation">India</a>, the president and his negotiating team have effectively been working on a Paris outcome for more than a year.</p>
<p>One shouldn’t be cynical about legacy being a powerful driver for a leader. It is nothing but auspicious that the Paris meeting represents a moment when the US president has the potential to make an international climate agreement one of his lasting achievements.</p>
<h2>In a bind</h2>
<p>Fourth, since Copenhagen the United Nations has come to appreciate that there must be alternatives to a legally binding agreement being the sole criterion for judging the meeting a success. For a negotiation to be meaningful and effective, it needs greater definition than agreeing sentences, targets and timetables. They are needed, but in and of themselves, too abstract.</p>
<p>Over the past year the UN has focused on deforestation as a key area where real progress can be made, and last September it secured the <a href="http://www.un.org/climatechange/summit/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2014/09/FORESTS-New-York-Declaration-on-Forests.pdf">New York Declaration on Forests</a>. This statement was agreed by key countries and an impressive list of global environment groups and businesses with the power to shift their supply chains away from the products and processes that drive deforestation. Of course, such statements can’t solve the problem of carbon emissions from deforestation, but it gives a wide coalition of people the ability to influence the issue and take the negotiations out of the technical speak that only negotiators understand. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76884/original/image-20150402-32408-om4va4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76884/original/image-20150402-32408-om4va4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76884/original/image-20150402-32408-om4va4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76884/original/image-20150402-32408-om4va4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76884/original/image-20150402-32408-om4va4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76884/original/image-20150402-32408-om4va4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76884/original/image-20150402-32408-om4va4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76884/original/image-20150402-32408-om4va4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The atmosphere at the Copenhagen eventually became downbeat – the Paris summit’s leaders can ensure the same doesn’t happen again.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nick Rowley</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A final reason for optimism is simply the calibre and experience of the key players. So woeful was the Danish government’s management of the Copenhagen meeting that the conference president, Connie Hedegaard, was replaced by her Prime Minister halfway through the talks.</p>
<p>This won’t happen in Paris. In <a href="http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/the-minister-and-the-ministers-of/laurent-fabius/article/biography-of-laurent-fabius">Laurent Fabius</a>, the current French foreign minister and former Prime Minister, the meeting will be led by someone with unparalleled expertise in international negotiations and a brain the size of a basketball.</p>
<p>Another key role at Copenhagen – executive secretary the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (<a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/">UNFCCC</a>), under whose auspices the negotiations are conducted – was filled by the dour Dutch diplomat <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yvo_de_Boer">Yvo de Boer</a>. He seemed overwhelmed by the job; photographs of his frowns, eye rubbing and generally torpid body language became an enduring image of the meeting. </p>
<p>With the feisty, dynamic <a href="http://unfccc.int/secretariat/executive_secretary/items/1200.php">Christiana Figueres</a> now in the job, not only will there be no yawning from the stage, but she now heads an organisation that has learned the hard lessons from the Copenhagen circus.</p>
<p>Of course, none of these factors guarantees a successful outcome in Paris. But I believe each makes it more likely. The crucial question now is what an adequate climate agreement actually looks like, and how history will judge the Paris summit’s ability to deliver it.</p>
<p><em>This is part 2 of a three-part essay on the prospects for a global climate deal at the Paris 2015 talks. You can read part 3 <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-global-deal-that-drives-good-decisions-what-success-at-the-paris-summit-should-look-like-39592">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39591/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick Rowley is a former strategic director of the Copenhagen Climate Council, and was a climate policy advisor to former British Prime Minister Tony Blair.</span></em></p>The much-hyped 2009 Copenhagen climate summit yielded only a flimsy accord. But, as Nick Rowley writes in part 2 of his three-part essay on the 2015 Paris climate talks, there are several reasons why this year won’t see another flop.Nick Rowley, Adjunct professor, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/396252015-04-01T02:16:17Z2015-04-01T02:16:17ZUS submits climate target to UN while Australia looks for excuses<p>The United States has <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/03/31/fact-sheet-us-reports-its-2025-emissions-target-unfccc">formally submitted</a> its target for a post-2020 climate deal to be negotiated in Paris at the end of 2015. The target, to reduce greenhouse gases 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025, is the same as announced in a joint <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-china-climate-deal-at-last-a-real-game-changer-on-emissions-34148">deal with China</a> in November last year. </p>
<p>Australia is currently <a href="https://www.dpmc.gov.au/taskforces/unfccc/how-make-submission">seeking submissions</a> on a post-2020 climate target, with a formal announcement expected by mid-2015. However a <a href="https://www.dpmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/Issues_Paper_greenhouse_gas_1.pdf">discussion paper</a> released on Saturday suggests that Australia is looking for excuses to free-ride on the efforts of other nations. </p>
<h2>Looking for excuses</h2>
<p>The government discussion paper comes fairly late in the international process. <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-2015-climate-summit-countries-targets-beyond-2020-38427">Some other countries</a>, notably the US and the European Union, have already formally submitted their targets, or have provided clear statements of their intent. Global action seems to be accelerating, leaving Australia in the dust.</p>
<p>The discussion paper, authored by the Prime Minister’s department, has been met with widespread, scathing – and appropriate - <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/30/australias-climate-change-policy-on-course-for-disastrous-4c-warming">criticism</a>.</p>
<p>It reminds me of Australia’s “poor little rich kid” approach taken when negotiating our <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/saturdayextra/clive-hamilton/3238974">extremely generous 1997 Kyoto target</a>, while failing to focus on the fundamental goals of global climate policy. As in 1997, it argues that Australia is “different”, so we need more generous emission targets than other countries. The discussion paper notes that Australia’s population and economic growth is stronger than other developed nations, putting upwards pressure on greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<p>Yet some of the differences, such as our present high coal dependence, justify a stronger, not weaker, target. We have <a href="http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/3/30/policy-politics/abbott-government-trying-pull-another-kyoto-con">more scope to cut emissions</a> than other low emission intensity countries.</p>
<p>The problem is that most countries can claim differences. And a high carbon Australian economy is vulnerable to the outcomes of effective actions by other countries.</p>
<p>The paper attempts to justify weak ambitions instead of recognising the benefits of stronger action for Australia while acknowledging the challenges. Its key flaw is that limited action before 2030 means <a href="http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/articles/publications/what-progression-means-for-australias-post-2020-targets.html">impossibly rapid</a> and economically disruptive emission cuts would be needed by 2050 if Australia is to play a meaningful role in limiting warming to anywhere near the 2C “climate danger” threshold. </p>
<p>For instance, <a href="http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/articles/publications/what-progression-means-for-australias-post-2020-targets.html">The Climate Institute</a> recommends cuts of 40% below 2000 levels by 2025, and 65-75% below 2000 levels by 2035. Smaller targets would require greater action beyond 2025 – if Australia sticks to an unconditional 5% below 2000 levels by 2020, emissions reductions of 9% each year are required to keep warming below 2C. But if Australia adopts the conditional target of 15% below 1990 levels by 2020, the effort required is 6.5% each year.</p>
<p>This doesn’t fit well with the government’s rhetoric on <a href="http://www.treasury.gov.au/%7E/media/Treasury/Publications%20and%20Media/Publications/2015/2015%20Intergenerational%20Report/Downloads/PDF/2015_IGR.ashx">intergenerational fairness</a>.</p>
<p>At least the paper acknowledges climate change is happening. It restates the government’s faith in its Direct Action measures, although it flags the possible need for further action such as vehicle fuel efficiency, building and appliance standards. </p>
<h2>Australia compared</h2>
<p>In contrast to the government’s approach, the Climate Change Authority has issued a <a href="http://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/sites/prod.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/files/CCA_Practical_Guide_Comparing_Countries%20FINAL.pdf">very helpful guide</a> to understanding the issues underlying target setting. It will also publish proposed targets based on its comprehensive approach. This will provide a far better basis for public discussion than the government’s five page paper.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76689/original/image-20150331-1274-dckid7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76689/original/image-20150331-1274-dckid7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76689/original/image-20150331-1274-dckid7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76689/original/image-20150331-1274-dckid7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76689/original/image-20150331-1274-dckid7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76689/original/image-20150331-1274-dckid7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=722&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76689/original/image-20150331-1274-dckid7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=722&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76689/original/image-20150331-1274-dckid7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=722&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia’s unconditional 5% target is not compatible with efforts to keep warming below 2C.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/sites/prod.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/files/CCA_Practical_Guide_Comparing_Countries%20FINAL.pdf">Climate Change Authority</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While the government emphasises that certainty is important for business and policy makers, its likely post-2020 target will not provide this, because it will be completely out of step with commitments from other Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It will have to be revised in the near future. It will provide the certainty of uncertainty and confusion. </p>
<p>The inadequacy of the discussion paper’s aspirations will simply undermine the relevance of the Australian government to climate action within Australia and internationally. It may well provoke state and local governments and progressive businesses to step up their action and focus more on coordinated approaches. </p>
<p>Also banks and other financial businesses need somewhere to invest their money other than in fossil fuels, so they may build on recent developments to mobilise abatement activity. </p>
<p>We are already seeing state and local governments supporting new investments in renewable energy and introducing stronger energy efficiency measures. The financial community is offering finance for emission reduction projects, and shifting funds away from investments vulnerable to global climate action. </p>
<p>So others will fill the vacuum. But this will be less co-ordinated and certain than an effective national strategy.</p>
<p>At the end of the paper, the government invites submissions on our post-2020 target, the potential impacts, and possible additional policies that could complement Direct Action. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Alan will be on hand for an Author Q&A session between 2:30 and 3:30pm AEDT on Thursday April 2. Post your questions about the article in the comments section below.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39625/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Pears AM has carried out consulting work for many sustainable energy organisations and provides policy advice to a variety of organisations. At present he has no paid roles for such organisations. He is an honorary adviser to the Energy Efficiency Council, Climate Alliance and Alternative Technology Association</span></em></p>The US has made its formal submission of climate targets beyond 2020. But Australia continues to twiddle its thumbs.Alan Pears, Sustainable Energy & Climate Researcher, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/362972015-01-19T19:25:21Z2015-01-19T19:25:21ZWhat can climate talks learn from the fight against nuclear weapons?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69343/original/image-20150119-2710-z9kl5j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Could people get just as concerned about climate change as nuclear war? </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/">Nuclear war image from www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>From the 1950s until the 1990s, nuclear weapons were viewed as the greatest threat to human life on the planet. Jonathan Schell, whose book <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/books/98/12/06/specials/schell-fate.html">The Fate of the Earth</a> (1998) perhaps best crystallised the danger and fear of such weapons for a popular audience, referred to life after a nuclear holocaust as a “republic of insects and grass”.</p>
<p>Today the world faces a different global threat of our own making: climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/">has documented</a> the possibly catastrophic impacts of unchecked warming. This November, nations around the world will <a href="http://climate-l.iisd.org/events/unfccc-cop-21">meet in Paris</a> in an attempt to develop a global climate agreement beyond 2020. </p>
<p>The threat of nuclear war was substantially reduced through several successful strategic arms-control agreements in the 1970s and 1980s.</p>
<p>What – if anything – can such successful agreements, designed to address a global threat, tell us about climate change agreements and their success? </p>
<h2>A brief history of nuclear treaties</h2>
<p>On May 26, 1972, the United States and the Soviet Union signed two strategic arms-control treaties: the <a href="http://www.state.gov/t/isn/4795.htm">Interim Agreement on Certain Measures with Respect to the Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms</a> (the “Interim Agreement”) and the <a href="http://www.state.gov/www/global/arms/treaties/abm/abm2.html">Antiballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty</a>, as part of <a href="http://www.armscontrol.org/documents/salt">ongoing talks</a> to limit nuclear arms. </p>
<p>In the Interim Agreement, both superpowers agreed for the first time to limit the number of offensive nuclear weapons they could deploy, while the missile treaty limited the number of <em>defensive</em> weapons. This was just as important, and worked off the recognition that mutual vulnerability could produce strategic stability. </p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.state.gov/t/avc/trty/102360.htm">second agreement</a> in 1987 between the United States and the Soviet Union, eliminated nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with a range between 500 and 5,500 km.</p>
<p>At the end of July 1991 the US and the Soviet Union signed the <a href="http://www.state.gov/t/avc/trty/146007.htm">Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty</a> (START). It took nine years to negotiate and, for the first time, required a reduction in warheads deployed on strategic offensive weapons. The treaty provided that the US cut its ballistic missile warheads by about 38% and the Soviet Union cut its missiles by 48% to equal levels.</p>
<p>START II was signed in 1993 and START III in 2002. The latest START agreement was signed in 2011. Since the 1986 Reykjvic summit at which the foundations for START were laid, there has been a two-thirds decline in nuclear weapons in the arsenals of Russia and the United States.</p>
<h2>Why did they work?</h2>
<p>All of these agreements were designed to address a global threat – nuclear war and a possible nuclear holocaust. There was a clear and present danger, a danger that manifested itself across decades. It was also a danger increasingly (and easily) understood by the public. </p>
<p>The danger could be seen: missiles being paraded, missiles being tested, missiles being deployed. Fear, especially in Europe, was almost visceral. There was public support for the agreements.</p>
<p>Books and films also played a role. Movies such as <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0085404">The Day After</a> (1983) and <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0086429/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Testament</a> (1983) and enormously popular books such as Jonathan Schell’s <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/books/98/12/06/specials/schell-fate.html">The Fate of the Earth</a> (1988) and Helen Caldicott’s <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1308578.Missile_Envy?from_search=true">Missile Envy</a> (1986) fed public demand for action. </p>
<p>Public demonstrations against nuclear weapons became defining global moments.</p>
<p>The agreements were not multilateral; they involved a small number of parties. The technical issues were often difficult, but the parameters of what needed to be negotiated were clear. The objective was also clear: the reduction of nuclear weapons or a strategy whereby they would not be used.</p>
<p>There are, of course, successful multilateral nuclear weapons agreements - the <a href="http://www.iaea.org/publications/documents/treaties/npt">Non-Proliferation Treaty</a> (NPT), for example, to which 189 states are party. It should be noted, however, that the mere fact of the treaty can’t prevent <a href="http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat">proliferation</a> of nuclear weapons, the retention of such weapons or, of course, the desire to obtain them – thus the great number of state parties. </p>
<h2>Could it work for climate?</h2>
<p>These arms control treaties show that small numbers of countries can agree on matters that affect the future of the planet. They also show that it helps if the danger is clear and present, and the issues are clearly understood and recognised by the public. </p>
<p>Bill McKibben, the activist and founder of 350.org, has said that, in terms of both the nuclear and climate change crises, <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/04/07/jonathan-schell">citing</a> Schell: “the jeopardy to our species and the rest of the species on the earth, adds a dimension that we have never seen before”.</p>
<p>Perhaps climate agreements between small numbers of state parties could be the solution, rather than a global deal. </p>
<p>The late Nobel laureate in economics, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elinor_Ostrom">Elinor Ostrom</a> proposes a <a href="http://www.iadb.org/intal/intalcdi/pe/2009/04268.pdf">solution</a> at many levels: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>[t]he likelihood of developing an effective, efficient, and fair system to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that can be rapidly initiated at the global level appear to be very low. Given the severity of the threat, simply waiting for resolution of these issues at a global level, without trying out policies at multiple scales because they lack a global scale, is not a reasonable stance. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>A recent example is the 2014 climate <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/11/11/fact-sheet-us-china-joint-announcement-climate-change-and-clean-energy-c">deal</a> between just the US and China in which the US commits (but is not legally bound) to reducing emissions by up to 28% on 2005 levels by 2025. China aims to cease emissions growth before 2030. China and the US account for 42% of global emissions.</p>
<p>If the world’s <a href="http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/14/hl-full.htm#regionalFF">four largest emitters</a>, came to an agreement – between China (28%), the US (14%), the EU (10%) and India (7%), together with Russia and Brazil – it would cover about 70% of world emissions.</p>
<p>However, for much of the public, unlike the threat of nuclear war, the climate change threat is not a visceral one; this may well account for a lack of progress in concluding legally-binding climate change agreements.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/36297/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>From the 1950s until the 1990s, nuclear weapons were viewed as the greatest threat to human life on the planet. Jonathan Schell, whose book The Fate of the Earth (1998) perhaps best crystallised the danger…David Hodgkinson, Associate Professor, Law School, The University of Western AustraliaRebecca Johnston, Adjunct Lecturer, Law School, University of Notre Dame AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/354782014-12-15T03:21:24Z2014-12-15T03:21:24ZClimate talks slouch towards Paris as Lima summit finally wraps up<p>The UN’s climate negotiations in Lima (known as <a href="http://unfccc.int/meetings/lima_dec_2014/meeting/8141.php">COP20</a>) over the past fortnight were held in a military compound normally used by the Peruvian Army. Each day, negotiators at the COP passed an obstacle course for commandos - a sequence of torturous crawl pits, wires, walls and swing bridges. The symbolism wasn’t lost on anyone. </p>
<p>For the fourth year in a row the COP went past its scheduled end, grinding to a close at around 1.30 am on Sunday, well into its second night of overtime. It almost drowned in a sea of differences and the optimism established by the joint US-China announcement before the G20 meeting was dissipated as developed and developing countries fell back into their trenches.</p>
<h2>The Road to Paris</h2>
<p>The Lima conference was a stepping stone to Paris. There, the next COP will attempt to seal a crucial global deal on climate change beyond 2020 under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This deal is intended finally to do what everyone hoped would be done at Copenhagen in 2009.</p>
<p>The Lima COP’s central purpose was to frame the “<a href="http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/lima_dec_2014/in-session/application/pdf/adp2-7_3_10dec2014t_np.pdf">elements text</a>” — the working draft for a post-2020 agreement in Paris. Many — especially scientists and environmentalists – see the Paris Agreement as our last chance to set goals that will keep global warming below 2C. </p>
<p>This text, settled several days before the conference closed, still promises Copenhagen-style deadlocks next year when negotiators return to haggle over to its details.</p>
<p>However the big fights this year were not around the draft Paris agreement but the main decision of the Lima meeting, which refines the “<a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2011/cop17/eng/09a01.pdf">climate roadmap</a>” developed at Durban in 2011. The struggle revolved around four related issues. </p>
<h2>What should national targets contain?</h2>
<p>First, countries need to put forward targets that will, collectively, overcome the “ambition gap” between currently weak national goals and those needed to keep global warming below 2C or even 1.5C. This is the core objective against which the outcomes of the Paris result must be assessed. </p>
<p>The decision text merely noted this problem “with grave concern”. There was nothing to ensure that weak pre-2020 pledges were revisited and strengthened. Therefore the task of holding warming below 2C has thus been made almost impossible; instead we’re heading for 3-4C by 2100.</p>
<p>Moreover there was disagreement over what national targets (known as “intended nationally determined contributions”, or iNDCs) for the post-2020 period should contain, and when they should be first delivered for evaluation. </p>
<p>The developed countries also generally wanted them confined to mitigation, while the developing country bloc wanted to bring in adaptation. Similarly there were divisions over whether the iNDCs should contain clear justifications of how they are equitable and just.</p>
<p>The final decision merely “invites” contributions “well in advance” of Paris — by the first quarter of 2015 — and allows the UN Secretariat to produce a synthesis report (assessing the collective ambition of these pledges) as late as October 2015. This will have had the effect of cutting short the time to raise parties’ collective ambition if individual contributions are deficient, as most are almost certain to be. </p>
<p>However, parties are required to show how their targets are “fair and ambitious” in the light of the Convention’s objective of achieving safe climate. This is an impossible challenge for Australia unless the Abbott government announces a target of more than 40% below 2000 levels by 2025 and 60% by 2030. </p>
<h2>The politics of differentiation</h2>
<p>Second, from its inception, the UN Climate Change Convention has differentiated between developed and developing countries, based on their different levels of wealth, economic capacities, and different levels of historical responsibility for the problem of global warming. There was a struggle to keep references to ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ in the text.</p>
<p>Several major developed country Parties regard this binary approach to developed and developing blocs to have broken down as emergent major industrialising states such as China, Brazil and India have become major contributors to global emissions. Developing countries disagree.</p>
<p>This issue embittered the discussions, with countries such as Australia unhelpfully pushing for the binary to be set aside, despite it being foundational to the treaty.</p>
<h2>Funding climate action</h2>
<p>Third, there is the matter of climate finance. The funding required to decarbonise the global economy by 2050, deal with adaptation, and meet the mounting costs of loss and damage caused by extreme weather events, will amount to trillions over the next few decades. Where will this come from? </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/un-green-climate-fund-its-time-for-australia-to-step-up-34308">Green Climate Fund</a> (GCF), to which Australia grudgingly contributed a meagre <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-finally-contributes-to-green-climate-fund-35323">A$200 million over four years</a>, is an important initiative but it and other existing measures are wholly inadequate given the tasks at hand. </p>
<p>Finance is a redline issue for many developing countries. The poorer parties wanted to bring the issue of “loss and damage”, a consideration crystallised at the Warsaw COP in 2013, into the Lima decision. Developed countries resisted this as an attempt to smuggle compensation into the adaptation agenda. They confined reference to loss and damage to the preamble and weakened references to finance overall.</p>
<h2>What about adaptation?</h2>
<p>Last, and related, how adaptation will be handled under the new agreement is also in dispute. Should adaptation goals be a required part of the national targets? Indeed, should there be a global adaptation goal? </p>
<p>The Least Developed Countries — which have contributed least to the problems of climate change and will be hardest hit by its effects — want adaptation to have equal status with mitigation, in terms of finance and other forms of assistance, and could block the Paris negotiations if these matters aren’t taken into account. Adaptation is mentioned — but not strengthened — in this text.</p>
<h2>Should the Paris agreement be legally binding?</h2>
<p>Separately, there remains the overarching question of the Paris Agreement’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/legally-binding-demands-are-still-the-biggest-climate-dealbreaker-35429">formal legal status</a>. This remains a sleeper issue for Paris. The Lima talks affirmed parties’ determination to “adopt a protocol, another legal instrument or agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention”.</p>
<p>In other words, the Paris agreement could be a legally binding agreement, including compliance mechanisms, or a lesser decision calling for national measures with legal force. Or a hybrid of the latter two. </p>
<p>The prevailing view is that a strong legally binding agreement will be rejected by the US. Indeed, Paris could still collapse into a weak political agreement (a la Copenhagen) that would represent a failure of the roadmap agreed at climate talks in Durban in 2011.</p>
<p>Last Wednesday, Nobel Prize winner and former US Vice President Al Gore presented his revised slide show to a large audience in one of the COP’s side events. It offered a terrifying picture not only of the future consequences of failed negotiations and weak mitigation, but of our world unravelling under the present-day assault of accelerating global warming.</p>
<p>The contrast between his message and this COP’s unworldly and dilatory squabbling couldn’t have been starker. The selfish and ultimately self-defeating behaviour of developed country Parties like Australia – acting to protect their wealth against the just claims of the global South - is shaping up to be the biggest obstacle on the path to effective agreement in Paris next year.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35478/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Christoff does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The UN’s climate negotiations in Lima (known as COP20) over the past fortnight were held in a military compound normally used by the Peruvian Army. Each day, negotiators at the COP passed an obstacle course…Peter Christoff, Associate Professor, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/353182014-12-10T19:41:20Z2014-12-10T19:41:20ZAustralia’s $200 million climate pledge falls short of its true debt<p>At the United Nations Lima climate summit, Australia’s foreign minister Julie Bishop <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-10/bishop-200-million-to-green-climate-fund-at-un-climate-summit/5956676">has pledged A$200 million over four years</a> to the <a href="http://unfccc.int/cooperation_and_support/financial_mechanism/green_climate_fund/items/5869.php">Green Climate Fund</a>, which seeks to raise US$100 billion (A$120 billion) per year by 2020 to help developing countries deal with climate change.</p>
<p>The announcement is good PR and plays readily into the narrative that the Abbott government will <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/editorials/five-years-on-abbott-tries-to-reboot-and-re-engage/story-e6frg71x-1227141322239">“reboot” and “re-engage”</a> with voters in 2015. It also directs attention to the cabinet’s “<a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/julie-bishop-a-rising-star-of-the-international-stage/story-fn8qlm5e-1227101596048">star performer</a>” Julie Bishop, and provides an alternative framing to Australia’s <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/dec/08/australia-named-worst-performing-industrial-country-on-climate-change">embarrassing isolation</a> on climate action.</p>
<p>Scratch beneath the surface, however, and an alternative picture emerges. Put simply, the size of Australia’s contribution to the fund does not suggest that the government accepts the moral argument of “climate debt”, or that it is willing to put its neighbours’ well-being ahead of its own short-term political gain.</p>
<p>Climate debt is financially complex but morally simple. It is the idea that rich countries should pay reparations to poor countries for damage suffered as a result of climate change. Justin Lin, former chief economist at the World Bank, <a href="http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/0,,contentMDK:22313490%7EpagePK:64165401%7EpiPK:64165026%7EtheSitePK:469372,00.html">summed up the moral argument succinctly</a> back in 2009:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Developing countries, which have historically contributed little to global warming, are now, ironically, faced with 75 to 80 percent of the potential damage from it. They need help to cope with climate change, as they are preoccupied with existing challenges such as reducing poverty and hunger and providing access to energy and water.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The share of responsibility for fossil fuel-derived greenhouse emissions since 1750 can also be <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-carbon-report-emissions-will-hit-new-heights-in-2014-31834">broken down by country</a>. James Hansen, former director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, provided estimates in an <a href="http://www.columbia.edu/%7Ejeh1/mailings/2008/20080401_DearPrimeMinisterRudd.pdf">open letter</a> to Australia’s former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. Hansen estimated that the historical carbon debt of the United States was 27.5% of the total. </p>
<p>Australia has much lower cumulative emissions (1.5%) but is the <a href="http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/">worst greenhouse emitter per capita</a> among major western nations. Using this figure, groups like the <a href="http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/">Climate Institute</a> have suggested that <a href="http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/verve/_resources/LimaClimateSummit_Final_Final.pdf">A$350 million</a> is the minimum fair contribution to climate financing that Australia should make.</p>
<h2>Moral argument rejected</h2>
<p>Arguments for climate debt have been persistently rejected by developed nations. For example, before the 2009 Copenhagen climate summit, US State Department lead negotiator Todd Stern, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/10/science/earth/10climate.html?_r=0">denied</a> that the United States should be held retroactively responsible for a problem that could not have been predicted, saying: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>For most of the 200 years since the Industrial Revolution, people were blissfully ignorant of the fact that emissions caused a greenhouse effect. It’s a relatively recent phenomenon.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In Australia, the political rhetoric has traditionally been more nuanced. In 2006, for example, the Labor opposition <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/labor-calls-for-action-on-drowning-islands/2006/01/04/1136050495632.html">released a report</a> called Our Drowning Neighbours. It called for a "Pacific Climate Change Strategy” to provide assistance for mitigation, adaptation and emergency response efforts; intra-country evacuations and training; establishing an international coalition to accept climate change refugees; assistance to preserve the cultural heritage of those evacuated; and the establishment of a Pacific Climate Change Alliance.</p>
<p>Labor distanced itself from this report while in government. But it was an <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/nov/08/australian-ministers-rethink-green-climate-fund-commitment">early contributor to the Green Climate Fund</a>, providing A$500,000 in 2012 to help get the new fund going, as well as almost A$600m to a precursor “fast-start” fund. </p>
<p>While much more was needed, the contrast between Labor’s policy and <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/07/g20-australia-resists-international-call-supporting-climate-change-fund">Abbott’s derision</a> of the fund as a “Bob Brown bank” is stark.</p>
<h2>Foreign aid to suffer</h2>
<p>Perhaps the most troubling aspect of the Government’s announcement is that the pledge will be taken <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-10/bishop-200-million-to-green-climate-fund-at-un-climate-summit/5956676">directly from the foreign aid budget</a>. In other words, no new money will be allocated to help developing countries that are currently suffering the effects of climate change. </p>
<p>In light of the havoc currently being wrought by <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/philippines-begins-cleanup-after-typhoon-hagupit-n264336">Typhoon Hagupit</a> (Ruby) in the Philippines, this is a particularly callous decision. For the third year in a row, the Philippines has been battered by a major storm at the same time as the annual UN climate talks. <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-08/typhoon-hagupit-heads-towards-manila-after-battering-tacloban/5950544">The death toll from Hagupit</a> has already reached 27, and many in the region are still recovering from Typhoon Haiyan, which <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20141006091212/http://www.ndrrmc.gov.ph/attachments/article/1177/Update%20Effects%20TY%20YOLANDA%2017%20April%202014.pdf">killed at least 6,300 people</a> in November 2013.</p>
<p>Countries like the Philippines do not have the luxury of playing politics with climate finance. At the opening session of the 2013 UN climate summit in Warsaw, Naderev “Yeb” Saño, leader of the Philippines Climate Change Commission, gave a tearful <a href="http://tcktcktck.org/2013/11/cop19-philippines-speech-moves-plenary-tears/58705">opening statement</a> in which he pleaded: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>If not us, then who? If not now, then when? If not here in Warsaw, where? What my country is going through as a result of this extreme climate event is madness. The climate crisis is madness. We can stop this madness.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Following this, Saño did something extraordinary. He <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-24899647">told delegates he would fast</a> until the talks yielded progress. He held his fast for two weeks and was joined by hundreds of people at the conference and around the world.</p>
<p>For real progress to be made with the Green Climate Fund, our political leaders need to capture something of the seriousness and ethical integrity displayed by Saño. At present, the fund has only reached <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/10/us-climatechange-lima-fund-idUSKBN0JN2D220141210">10% of its target</a>. </p>
<p>My fear is that as pressure mounts for climate negotiations to yield progress, power will concentrate in fewer hands and developing countries will continue to be sidelined.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35318/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Burdon is affiliated with the International Union for the Conservation of Nature.</span></em></p>At the United Nations Lima climate summit, Australia’s foreign minister Julie Bishop has pledged A$200 million over four years to the Green Climate Fund, which seeks to raise US$100 billion (A$120 billion…Peter Burdon, Senior lecturer, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/253912014-07-03T20:32:28Z2014-07-03T20:32:28ZWill the climate debate end up being fought in court?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52929/original/qyzpfrr2-1404355446.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Could politicians and scientists in the future be charged with "climate negligence"?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/go_greener_oz/3046225225">Julie G/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Society generally has a clear idea of what constitutes a crime, and those in positions of power are usually held to very high standards. Politicians charged with making decisions on the needs of society are held accountable for unprofessional behaviour.</p>
<p>New South Wales Premier Barry O’Farrell, for example, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-16/nsw-premier-barry-ofarrell-to-resign-over-icac-grange-wine/5393478">chose to resign</a> in April over a “massive memory fail”, after initially denying he had received an expensive bottle of wine from an Australian Water Holdings executive.</p>
<p>Neglecting to take action can also be considered criminal. In the same way that doctors who fail to diagnose an illness may be charged with malpractice, politicians can face similar charges for failing to adequately do their jobs.</p>
<p>These crimes may seem more clear-cut – but what happens when it comes to accountability for environmental issues, and more specifically, climate change?</p>
<h2>Predicting disasters and legal risk</h2>
<p>When government action or inaction leads to the direct harm of citizens due to environmental risks and natural hazards, they should be held to account. </p>
<p>This logic saw residents of New Orleans sue the United States government for damages caused by flooding associated with Hurricane Katrina, after a federal judge ruled the US Army Corps of Engineers <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2009/nov/19/nation/na-katrina-flooding19">displayed gross negligence</a> by failing to maintain a shipping channel next to a levee protecting the city. </p>
<p>In another case in 2009, seven scientists and civil servants were <a href="http://theconversation.com/scientists-found-guilty-for-laquila-earthquake-deaths-but-why-10292">convicted of manslaughter</a> after failing to give adequate warning of an impending earthquake in L’Aquila, Italy, that killed 309 people. </p>
<p>We are yet to see if and how politicians and scientists will be held accountable for increased greenhouse gas emissions leading to climate change. But a recent area of legal development is arising in this area, known as <a href="http://www.brrmedia.com/event/117353/mark-baker-jones-special-counsel">climate legal risk</a>, defined as the risk of liability or adverse legal outcomes arising when the impacts of climate change (such as flooding, bushfire and coastal hazards) affect an organisation’s operations. </p>
<p>“Unacceptable impacts from predicted climate change” has been used to reject planning applications. In 2010 the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal <a href="http://www.thefifthestate.com.au/archives/9043/">rejected a proposal</a> to subdivide a coastal property for development due to predictions that the land would be inundated within a century. The case marked a critical point in planning law and sent an important message to coastal planning decision makers about the increasing relevance of climate-related flooding.</p>
<p>In another case brought to the courtrooms by environmentalist <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Gray_(activist)">Pete Gray</a>, the <a href="http://www.lec.lawlink.nsw.gov.au/lec/index.html">Land and Environment Court of New South Wales</a> found that the approved expansion of the Anvil Hill Coal Mine had failed to properly assess the greenhouse gas pollution impacts of the future use of mined coal. </p>
<p>The most recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-and-health-ipcc-reports-emerging-risks-emerging-consensus-24213">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report</a> paints a bleak picture of what will happen if we continue to pump greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. The risks of extreme weather, droughts, floods, cyclones and marine inundations are all significantly increased.</p>
<p>Currently, governments and mainstream politicians that openly dispute human-caused climate change are rare. What is far more prevalent is a <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-26824943">lack of meaningful action</a> in government to combat it.</p>
<p>But with the IPCC so clearly stating the need for action, there is now the very real risk that politicians, media outlets and scientists could face legal prosecution for their role in delaying action that could have saved properties, livelihoods and lives. </p>
<p>A broader international criminal framework identifying destruction of ecosystems, including through increasing greenhouse gas emissions, has been developed and termed “<a href="http://www.eradicatingecocide.com">ecocide</a>”, though it has yet to be legislated.</p>
<h2>Should scientists be held accountable for inaction?</h2>
<p>As the number of climate change related extreme events increase, we need to ask who should be held accountable for them. As we saw in L'Aquila, some believe that at least some of the responsibility falls on scientists. Perhaps it is the role of scientists to ensure that climate change warnings (such as those made by the IPCC) lead to actions like evacuation of natural disaster areas and meaningful policy change.</p>
<p>Scientists don’t have the power to make decisions in government or society. They are funded as researchers and experts, to advance knowledge and advise our elected officials. Scientists can only control what they say, and the urgency that they attach to it; not what is done with that advice. </p>
<p>But, like other people, scientists can be prone to hyperbole. Scientists have been <a href="http://www.ucl.ac.uk/public-policy/Policy_Commissions/Communication-climate-science/Communication-climate-science-report/TIME_FOR_CHANGE_Final_Proof.pdf">criticised for overdramatising</a> the consequences of inaction with regards to climate change, which can be overwhelming and may lead to a paralysis of action - a situation termed “climate fatigue”. </p>
<p>Transforming scientific research into policy is a messy process. It requires a range of scientific, communication and change management skills, the combination of which most scientists do not possess, and perhaps should not be expected to. However as we have seen, individuals and groups can be held accountable for inaction that leads to disastrous outcomes, and neither climate scientists or policy makers are likely to get a free pass.</p>
<h2>Avoiding lawyers at 50 paces</h2>
<p>In most situations, legal action comes only as a last resort when all other avenues of communication have broken down. And so in the climate debate, lawyers at 50 paces may only further inflame and entrench positions.</p>
<p>The climate issue needs leadership, not recrimination. We need leadership from scientists who can move from proclaiming the problem into practical uptake of solutions. </p>
<p>Likewise, leadership is needed from elected officials, who need to start working with the scientific community they have supported to develop evidence-based policy. </p>
<p>We need <a href="https://theconversation.com/chief-scientist-urges-corporate-chiefs-to-show-leadership-on-climate-change-26404">leadership from industry</a>, to start engaging with the climate debate. And in the run up to the <a href="http://www.un.org/climatechange/summit2014/">United Nations Climate Summit</a> set for September 2014 in New York and further talks <a href="https://unfccc.int/meetings/unfccc_calendar/items/2655.php?year=2015">in Paris next year</a>, we need <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2014/04/23/3990450.htm">global leaders</a> to step up to help move society to the next phase of climate action.</p>
<p>In the future, it will not have been enough of a defence to say that climate change inaction was a result of lack of evidence. <a href="http://www.genengnews.com/gen-news-highlights/hillary-clinton-states-stand-on-biotech-and-climate-change/81250038/">We have the evidence and we know that we should act</a>. If we do nothing now, future generations may take a legal perspective on our actions, or lack of them, bringing to The Hague a retrospective crime against humanity – climate negligence.</p>
<p><em>The authors would like to acknowledge the valuable contribution of Tim Vines in discussion of the ideas behind this piece.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25391/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Lowe receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stefan Caddy-Retalic is Director of the Australian Transect Network, a facility of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN). TERN receives funding from the Department of Education.</span></em></p>Society generally has a clear idea of what constitutes a crime, and those in positions of power are usually held to very high standards. Politicians charged with making decisions on the needs of society…Andrew Lowe, Professor of Plant Conservation Biology, University of AdelaideStefan Caddy-Retalic, Transect Ecologist, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/285472014-07-02T20:29:56Z2014-07-02T20:29:56ZAustralia’s coal industry needs to prepare for global climate action<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52727/original/zwx6vfqh-1404193334.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Mount Thorley Warkworth mine in the Hunter Valley of New South Wales produces coal for both electricity and steel-making. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/lockthegatealliance/13599250143/">Lock the Gate Alliance/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>At the recent midyear <a href="http://www.climatenetwork.org/sites/default/files/eco-june12.pdf">UN climate negotiations</a> in Bonn, an unprecedented 60 countries (including Germany) called for a total phase-out of fossil fuels by 2050, as part of a global agreement on climate change to be concluded in Paris in 2015. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, on tour in North America, Prime Minister Tony Abbott <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/tony-abbott-lauds-coal-during-texas-speech-says-climate-change-shouldnt-limit-use-of-fossil-fuels/story-fncynjr2-1226954500305">declared that</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>For many decades at least, coal will continue to fuel human progress as an affordable, dependable energy source for wealthy and developing countries alike. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>But Mr Abbott’s “coal forever” scenario is only likely if we fail to develop a global agreement to tackle climate change, which could come as soon as the end of next year in Paris. Such global action would dramatically reduce the use of fossil fuels over the coming decades, particularly coal for electricity production. </p>
<p>So, what is likely to happen to coal use and Australian coal exports in the coming decades?</p>
<h2>Energy and steel</h2>
<p>What happens to coal will depend on what the world does to address climate change. Any scenario that seriously addresses climate change will lead to reduced use of coal, particularly thermal/steam coal used to generate electricity.</p>
<p>Most of the world’s coal production goes to electricity generation — and 41% of the <a href="http://www.worldcoal.org/resources/coal-statistics/">world’s electricity</a> comes from coal. But renewable energy substitutes are already available and increasing becoming <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/wind-at-parity-with-new-coal-in-india-solar-to-join-by-2018-hsbc-14836">competitive with coal</a>, even before significant policy measures to address climate change are introduced. In the coming decades, efforts to address climate change will likely dramatically reduce the use of coal for electricity. </p>
<p>Coal is also used for steel-making — 13% of <a href="http://www.worldcoal.org/resources/coal-statistics/">global coal production</a> is used to produce 70% of the world’s steel. Substitutes for this coking coal are not so readily available and possibly carbon, capture and storage (CCS) may be required to reduce emissions. Recycling iron and steel — using electricity from renewable sources — may also play a part in cutting carbon emissions from coking coal.</p>
<h2>Climate action</h2>
<p>In its <a href="http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld2013.pdf">2013 report</a>, the International Energy Agency modelled what impact climate action would have on the energy industry. In one scenario, using a relatively weak global climate policy (which had only a moderate chance of limiting warming to 2C), coal’s share of global energy output dropped to about half of current levels by 2035. </p>
<p>According to climate action group 350.org, 80% of already proven fossil fuel reserves will have to <a href="http://math.350.org/">remain unused</a> in order to limit warming to less than 2C above pre-industrial levels. The total phase-out of fossil fuel use by 2050 is also clearly a possible outcome of global climate agreement in Paris 2015. </p>
<p>The greatest reductions will likely come from coal. Oil and gas are more versatile fossil fuels, and produce less carbon emissions when burnt. To keep warming to less than 2C, more than 80% of the vast proven global coal reserves, including those in Australia, will need to remain in the ground. </p>
<h2>Good and bad news for Australian coal</h2>
<p>The only good news for Australia is that 40% of our <a href="http://www.worldcoal.org/resources/coal-statistics/">current coal exports</a> are coking coal for steel-making. The lack of immediate substitutes for coking coal will likely mean that demand for coking coal will not fall away so rapidly as demand for coal for electricity generation, which is already weakening.</p>
<p>Exports make up a large proportion of Australia’s coal production — 80% of our coal for electricity, and 96% of our coal for steel-making. The bad news is that two of our three major markets, China and India, meet most of their demand from domestic coal production. </p>
<p>China produces over 90% of the coal is uses for electricity and 88% of its coking coal. India is a much smaller user of coal, using less than 20% of China’s consumption, but is slightly more dependent on imports. India currently producing 80% of its own steam coal and 56% of its coking coal. </p>
<p>The third major coal importing country, <a href="http://www.worldcoal.org/resources/coal-statistics/">Japan is much more reliant</a> on imported coal than China or India for both steam and coking coal. If the world agrees to reduce fossil fuel use, China and India are likely to be able to meet most or all of their needs for steam coal domestically in coming decades and not rely on imports from Australia. </p>
<p><a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/wind-at-parity-with-new-coal-in-india-solar-to-join-by-2018-hsbc-14836">Other evidence</a> indicates that that the incentives provided to switch away from fossil fuel power generation for these countries in a global climate change agreement do not need to be that high. Wind power is already competitive with coal fired power in India and solar is expected to be competitive within a few years.</p>
<p>Instead of repealing the carbon price this week, our newly elected senators should be working out additional policies and measures to further reduce Australia’s reliance on coal mining both domestically and for exports. </p>
<p>The healthiest scenario for the planet is a very unhealthy scenario for Australia’s coal — particularly coal for electricity generation. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/28547/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian McGregor has volunteered with the Australian Greens to hand out how to vote material on polling days.</span></em></p>At the recent midyear UN climate negotiations in Bonn, an unprecedented 60 countries (including Germany) called for a total phase-out of fossil fuels by 2050, as part of a global agreement on climate change…Ian McGregor, Lecturer in Management, UTS Business School, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.