tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/commuters-29105/articlesCommuters – The Conversation2023-09-25T12:23:39Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2139632023-09-25T12:23:39Z2023-09-25T12:23:39ZTraditional downtowns are dead or dying in many US cities − what’s next for these zones?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549791/original/file-20230922-15-jpru1x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C0%2C3964%2C2646&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A sign advertises retail spaces for lease at Union Square in San Francisco on June 21, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SanFranciscoDowntownRetailingWoes/60ec81b9b8aa4787869fe1284d6d2303/photo">AP Photo/Eric Risberg</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The hollowing out of U.S. cities’ office and commercial cores is a national trend with serious consequences for millions of Americans. As more people have stayed home following the COVID-19 pandemic, foot traffic has fallen. Major retail chains are closing stores, and even prestigious properties are having a hard time retaining tenants. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/30/us/san-francisco-whole-foods-crime-economy.html">shuttering of a Whole Foods market</a> after only a year in downtown San Francisco in May 2023 received widespread coverage. Even more telling was the high-end department store Nordstrom’s decision to <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/28/business/nordstrom-san-francisco-closure/index.html">close its flagship store there in August</a> after a 35-year run. </p>
<p>In New York City, office vacancy rates have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/01/business/office-vacancies-gural-gfp.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare">risen by over 70%</a> since 2019. Chicago’s <a href="https://www.themagnificentmile.com/">Magnificent Mile</a>, a stretch of high-end shops and restaurants, had a <a href="https://abc7chicago.com/chicago-loop-michigan-avenue-shopping-mag-mile/12968289/">26% vacancy rate</a> in spring 2023. </p>
<p>A recent study from the University of Toronto found that across North America, downtowns are recovering from the pandemic <a href="https://downtownrecovery.com/death_of_downtown_policy_brief.pdf">more slowly than other urban areas</a> and that “older, denser downtowns reliant on professional or tech workers and located within large metros” are struggling the hardest.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/G5qBZrj6Rt8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Like many U.S. cities, Portland, Oregon, is losing downtown businesses. This is cutting into urban revenues and creating a perception of decline.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Over more than 50 years of <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=oMPNYhQAAAAJ&hl=en">researching urban policy</a>, I have watched U.S. cities go through many booms and busts. Now, however, I see a more fundamental shift taking place. In my view, traditional downtowns are dead, dying or on life support across the U.S. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jul/05/it-has-lost-its-appeal-canary-wharf-faces-an-uncertain-future">and elsewhere</a>. Local governments and urban residents urgently need to consider <a href="https://www.philosophersmag.com/essays/302-cities-after-covid">what the post-pandemic city will look like</a>. </p>
<h2>Decades of overbuilding</h2>
<p>U.S. downtowns were in trouble <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/americas-office-glut-started-decades-before-pandemic-11661210031">before the COVID-19 pandemic</a>. Today’s overhang of excess commercial space was years in the making. </p>
<p>Urban property markets are speculative enterprises. When the economy is booming, individual developers decide to build more – and the collective result of these rational individual decisions is excess buildings. </p>
<p>In the 1980s, the Reagan administration allowed a <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/1980s-tax-reform-cost-recovery-and-the-real-estate-industry-lessons-for-today/">quicker depreciation of commercial real estate</a> that effectively lowered tax rates for developers. With financial globalization, foreign money <a href="https://homeabroadinc.com/foreign-home-buyers-statistics/">flowed into the U.S. property sector</a>, especially to very big development projects that could absorb large pools of liquid capital looking for relatively safe long-term investments. </p>
<p>Years of low interest rates meant cheap money for developers to finance their projects. City governments were eager to greenlight projects that would generate tax revenues. In many downtowns, office space now takes up between <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/07/07/upshot/downtown-office-vulnerable-even-before-covid.html">70% and 80%</a> of all real estate.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549793/original/file-20230922-21-nybfcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A construction worker on a movable scaffold in a gutted office building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549793/original/file-20230922-21-nybfcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549793/original/file-20230922-21-nybfcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549793/original/file-20230922-21-nybfcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549793/original/file-20230922-21-nybfcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549793/original/file-20230922-21-nybfcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549793/original/file-20230922-21-nybfcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549793/original/file-20230922-21-nybfcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A former office building at 160 Water St. in New York City’s financial district undergoing conversion into 600 apartments in March 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/view-of-construction-of-the-former-office-building-being-news-photo/1248220271">Lev Radin/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The pandemic push</h2>
<p>COVID-19 finally burst this 40-year bubble. During pandemic lockdowns, many people worked from home and became comfortable with virtual meetings. Telecommuting grew as <a href="https://theconversation.com/still-recovering-from-covid-19-us-public-transit-tries-to-get-back-on-track-193437">conventional commuting declined</a>. Workers with the resources and job flexibility moved from cities to so-called “<a href="https://www.rocketmortgage.com/learn/zoom-town">zoom towns</a>” where housing was more affordable and parks and outdoor activities were close at hand.</p>
<p>Now, many employers want their staffs to return to the office. However, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/04/14/dc-remote-work-poll-downtown/">workers are pushing back</a>, especially against spending full five-day weeks in the office. New technologies have made it easier to work from home, and a tight labor market has strengthened employees’ bargaining power. </p>
<p>There are significant knock-on effects. A range of businesses, including restaurants, retail stores and services, rely on downtown office workers. <a href="https://news.ucr.edu/articles/2021/10/21/downtowns-are-still-biggest-job-centers-most-regions">At least 17% of all leisure and hospitality sector jobs</a> are in the downtowns of the 100 largest U.S. cities. </p>
<p>In San Francisco, for example, a typical office worker <a href="https://sfbos.org/sites/default/files/BLA.DowntownSF.Economy%20Tax.022423.pdf">used to spend $168 near their office per week</a>. Now, with nearly 150,000 fewer office workers commuting downtown, about 33,000 people in the service and retail sectors have lost their jobs.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/CxQwrwOv4fw/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link\u0026igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>Terminal decline?</h2>
<p>Today, many cities are confronting the prospect of an <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/breaking-the-urban-doom-loop-the-future-of-downtowns-is-shared-prosperity/">urban doom loop</a>, with a massive oversupply of office and retail space, fewer commuters and a looming urban fiscal crisis. Washington, D.C., is an illustration.</p>
<p>In December 2022, the city had approximately 27,000 fewer jobs than in February 2020, and it faced a growing <a href="https://cfo.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/ocfo/publication/attachments/February%202023%20Revenue%20Estimate%20Letter_rev%20032723.pdf">financial shortfall</a> from declining property taxes due to downtown business closures and fewer property purchases. The District of Columbia government projects that city revenues will decline by US$81 million in fiscal year 2024, $183 million in 2025 and $200 million in 2026. Washington’s Metropolitan Transit Authority faces a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2023/07/28/dc-metro-funding-money/">$750 million shortfall</a> because of a sharp decline in ridership.</p>
<p>In the Communist Manifesto, Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels famously wrote that under the pressures of dynamic capitalism, “<a href="https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1848/communist-manifesto/ch01.htm">all that is solid melts into air</a>.” They could have been describing the ever-changing built form of the United States, with people and money flowing to Main Street stores through the 1960s, then to suburban malls in the 1970s and 80s, then <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/capturing-americas-fading-shopping-malls-through-a-photographers-lens">abandoning malls</a> for revived downtowns and online shopping. Now, traditional downtowns may be in similar terminal decline. </p>
<h2>Repurposing office space</h2>
<p>What can cities do with their surplus office spaces? In some cities, such as <a href="https://www.nbc4i.com/news/local-news/columbus/how-columbus-downtown-skyline-could-soon-change/">Columbus, Ohio</a>, investors are purchasing deeply discounted buildings, demolishing them and finding more profitable uses for the land, such as residential and mixed-use buildings. Other options include <a href="https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/vacant-offices-housing-conversion/">converting commercial space into residences</a> or more specialized applications such as <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23376441/office-real-estate-remote-work-lab-conversions">biotech labs</a>. </p>
<p>But conversion is no panacea. There are many regulatory hurdles, although cities are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/01/upshot/american-cities-office-conversion.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare">changing zoning laws</a> to make the process easier. Many office buildings have large internal floor spaces that makes it expensive to divide them into individual residential units that all receive outdoor light. And glass-sheathed buildings with windows that don’t open are prone to overheating.</p>
<p>Another approach is making downtowns more alluring, through steps such as <a href="https://eu.pjstar.com/story/news/local/2023/05/12/food-vendors-slowly-returning-to-downtown-peoria-illinois/70013015007/">waiving fees for food trucks</a> and small businesses, offering <a href="https://311.sanantonio.gov/kb/docs/articles/transportation/free-downtown-parking">free parking at night and on weekends</a> and promoting events and eateries. The city of Columbus gives out <a href="https://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/news/2023/08/07/columbus-economic-development.html">lunch coupons</a> for downtown restaurants. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/reel/CvsvdlGJDAd/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link\u0026igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<p>Worcester, Massachusetts, offers financial aid for small businesses that <a href="https://www.worcesterma.gov/business-community-development/financial-assistance/ma-vacant-storefront-program">move into vacant storefronts</a>. San Francisco is considering a proposal to convert its downtown Westfield Centre Mall, formerly home to Nordstrom and other retailers, into a <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/08/23/downtown-san-francisco-soccer-stadium-plans-for-former-westfield-mall-revealed/">soccer stadium</a>. </p>
<p>In my view, the growth of commercial office complexes that has long been promoted by investors, developers and federal and city governments has probably come to an end. The nation no longer needs so much office space. It will require <a href="https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2023-06-11/los-angeles-cities-downtowns-decline-recovery">more community involvement</a> to find out what people want instead. Some communities may focus on housing, while others opt for more recreational opportunities or green spaces. </p>
<p>The downtown filled with acres of banal office blocks, with accompanying ground-level retail stores and shopping malls, is a relic of the 20th century. It’s daunting but exciting to envision what will take its place.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213963/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Rennie Short does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Developers have overbuilt office and commercial space in US cities for decades. Now, in the wake of pandemic shutdowns, many downtowns face hard choices about the future.John Rennie Short, Professor Emeritus of Public Policy, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2080782023-07-30T11:09:36Z2023-07-30T11:09:36ZDisabled Nigerians battle when using minibus taxis – they share their experiences<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539772/original/file-20230727-17-78ike.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">peeterv/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>People with disabilities often face difficulties when accessing transport services. Inadequate and unsuitable options <a href="https://disabilityunit.blog.gov.uk/2021/07/28/transport-national-disability-strategy-explained/">restrict</a> their mobility, independence and ability to navigate their communities. This limits their opportunities for employment, education, healthcare and social engagement. These individuals can also be very vocal about their experiences – sharing comments online that can shape the branding and marketing of a city. </p>
<p>As an academic <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/emmanuel-mogaji-1217677">researcher</a> with a focus on transport, education and financial services, I teach the marketing and advertising of these services. To do so, one must first understand the state of a service like transport in a city. </p>
<p>I’ve <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920921002807">studied</a> the experiences of commuters with disabilities and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/cb.2089">examined</a> their interactions with transport providers. My focus has been on developing countries, like Nigeria, where limited transport infrastructure poses unique challenges for disabled commuters. </p>
<p>In my <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JSM-04-2022-0145/full/html">latest research</a>, I explored interactions between commuters with disabilities and transport services providers in the densely populated Lagos state. </p>
<p>Commuters with disabilities express constant dissatisfaction with the poor service quality provided by <a href="https://culturecustodian.com/the-danfo-story-on-lagos-enduring-cultural-icon/">danfo</a> (minibus) operators in Lagos. And about the negative attitudes of other commuters, who often perceive them as burdens who slow down the journey.</p>
<p>It’s crucial to address these barriers by establishing inclusive and accessible transport systems that meet the diverse needs of individuals with disabilities. This will promote <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/09504222221122958">equal opportunities and full participation</a> for all members of society. Apart from enhancing their wellbeing and quality of life, this could also improve the image of Lagos.</p>
<h2>The study</h2>
<p><a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4450539">Danfos</a> – small yellow para-transit buses often derived from retrofitted Volkswagen vans – are the most popular form of public transport in Lagos. They accommodate 14 to 18 commuters and can be very uncomfortable when passengers are packed together. Danfos are unregulated, with no designated routes or route numbers. They’re operated by informal, self-employed owners or drivers. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/they-eat-our-sweat-new-book-exposes-daily-struggles-of-transport-workers-in-lagos-206027">They Eat Our Sweat - new book exposes daily struggles of transport workers in Lagos</a>
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<p>Qualitative data for my <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JSM-04-2022-0145/full/html#sec006">research</a> was collected over five weeks of ethnographic fieldwork in different locations in Lagos state. This included interviews with 23 individuals with various forms of disabilities and 81 transport service providers. </p>
<p>My analysis presents three key themes around the experiences of commuters with disabilities.</p>
<h2>Before riding</h2>
<p>Participants expressed concerns about the disorganised nature of transport services in Lagos. They felt anxious and uncertain because there were no fixed schedules and bus availability was unreliable. They requested a journey planner and mobile app.</p>
<p>But danfo drivers showed little interest. They didn’t believe they needed technology to aid their informal business because even without it, they were exceeding their targets.</p>
<p>One driver said: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>You are making everything these days about technology. I am not ready
for that, I just want to get on with my work. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Accessing buses was especially challenging for wheelchair users, who face uncooperative drivers. Drivers said that meeting targets and avoiding delays were obstacles to providing better service. </p>
<p>The fast-paced environment and inadequate infrastructure exacerbated difficulties for commuters with disabilities – drivers and conductors displayed a lack of understanding and patience. I found a general lack of awareness and empathy towards the needs of disabled commuters.</p>
<h2>While riding</h2>
<p>Participants shared experiences about bus conditions, safety and desired assistive technologies during their journeys. Service providers showed a resistance to change. </p>
<p>Space issues, especially for wheelchair users, were raised. Bus rapid transit services in Lagos were seen as more supportive, but participants mainly used unregulated private buses. Formal buses operate on a specific route, while danfos operate on their regular route. They end up heavily relying on them for their daily commute. </p>
<p>One participant with a hearing impairment told me:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The bus conductors and drivers can be very rude. They lack empathy and any human feeling. They can shout at you, pull you down if you are struggling to get down or they will treat you like you are nobody. This is because they know you don’t have a choice. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Participants called for training and compassion. Two wheelchair users said that drivers charged them more because they had a wheelchair. The drivers I interviewed denied the claims. </p>
<h2>Disembarking</h2>
<p>Commuters with disabilities expressed concerns about the lack of assistive technologies and the service providers’ limited awareness. Accessibility issues arose, like struggles to attract the attention of bus conductors and the rush to exit as conductors called in more passengers. </p>
<p>One visually impaired participant said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I now have to follow the bus to one of the bigger stops where I know they will stop to take some passengers. I do this because they don’t like stopping at my bus stop – always grumbling that I am making them lose customers. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Many commuters shared stories of falling and injuring themselves, highlighting the safety hazards involved. Inadequate infrastructure, including poorly designed exits, steep ramps and inaccessible environments worsen these challenges. Regulated buses offered better support.</p>
<h2>What needs to be done about it</h2>
<p>The development of inclusive and accessible transport systems would enhance the mobility and quality of life for individuals with disabilities – and also the branding of the city.</p>
<p>One proposed solution is to launch a social campaign aimed at raising awareness about the challenges faced by commuters with disabilities. This would encourage operators to make small changes to enhance service quality. To reach operators, the campaign – which could be sponsored as a corporate social responsibility initiative – would involve visiting bus stops, engaging with drivers and sharing informative videos that promote empathy.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-minibus-taxi-industry-has-been-marginalised-for-too-long-this-must-change-142060">South Africa's minibus taxi industry has been marginalised for too long. This must change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>There’s also a clear need for a new mobility start-up that can disrupt the informal economy and provide a more inclusive service. This social enterprise could provide a service similar to London’s <a href="https://tfl.gov.uk/modes/dial-a-ride/">Dial-a-ride</a>, where commuters with disabilities can pre-book buses. It could incorporate assistive technologies, mobile apps and journey planners. </p>
<p>By meeting the growing demand from people with disabilities who want to participate in the marketplace, more socially conscious public transport can open new opportunities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208078/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emmanuel Mogaji does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Danfo drivers are often intolerant, bringing down the image of Lagos as a destination.Emmanuel Mogaji, Associate Professor in Marketing, Keele UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2077792023-06-29T12:17:01Z2023-06-29T12:17:01ZDisasters like bridge collapses put transportation agencies’ emergency plans to the test<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584441/original/file-20240326-18-k42fw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C7%2C5150%2C3193&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A container ship collided with the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore on March 26, 2024, collapsing a section of the bridge. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/MarylandBridgeCollapse/3ab19a4aa7274ec49065520bb79aa9ea/photo">AP Photo/Steve Ruark</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>A container ship <a href="https://apnews.com/article/baltimore-bridge-collapse-53169b379820032f832de4016c655d1b">rammed into the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore</a> around 1:30 a.m. on March 26, 2024, causing a portion of the bridge to collapse into Baltimore Harbor. Officials called the event a mass casualty and were searching for people in the waters of the busy port.</em> </p>
<p><em>This event occurred less than a year after <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2023/06/11/bridge-collapse-philadelphia-interstate-95/">a portion of Interstate 95 collapsed</a> in north Philadelphia during a truck fire. That disaster was initially expected to snarl traffic for months, but a <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/06/23/i-95-bridge-reopening-friday/70349844007/">temporary six-lane roadway</a> was constructed in 12 days to serve motorists while a permanent overpass was rebuilt.</em></p>
<p><em>U.S. cities often face similar challenges when <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/memphis-cracked-i-40-bridge-creates-headache-traffic-shipping-n1267187">routine wear and tear</a>, <a href="https://abc7news.com/loma-prieta-quake-earthquake-when-was-magnitude/5605965/">natural disasters</a> or major accidents damage roads and bridges. Transportation engineer <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=RxdHmbMAAAAJ&hl=en">Lee D. Han</a> explains how planners, transit agencies and city governments anticipate and manage these disruptions.</em></p>
<h2>How do agencies plan for disruptions like this?</h2>
<p>Planning is a central mission for state and metropolitan transportation agencies. </p>
<p>Traditional long-term planning focuses on anticipating and preparing for growing and shifting transportation demand patterns. These changes are driven by regional and national economic and population trends. </p>
<p>Shorter-term planning is about ensuring mobility and safety during service disruptions. These events can include construction, major scheduled events like <a href="https://www.wkrn.com/news/local-news/bonnaroo-traffic-tdot-prepares-for-traffic-in-manchester/">music festivals</a>, traffic incidents such as crashes and hazardous material spills, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9488(2007)133:1(3)">emergency evacuations</a>, and events like the bridge collapse in Baltimore.</p>
<p>Agencies have limited resources, so they typically set priorities based on how likely a given scenario is, its potential adverse effects and the countermeasures that officials have available. </p>
<p>For bridges, the <a href="https://highways.dot.gov/">Federal Highway Administration</a> sets standards and requires states to carry out periodic inspections. In addition, agencies develop a detouring plan for each bridge in case of a structural failure or service disruption. In Baltimore, Key Bridge traffic will be <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/travel-around-francis-scott-key-bridge-collapse-baltimore-traffic/">routed through two tunnels</a> that pass under the harbor, but trucks carrying hazardous materials will have to take longer detours.</p>
<p>Major bridges, such as those at Mississippi River crossings, are crucial to the nation’s economy and security. They require significant planning, commitment and coordination between multiple agencies. There usually are multiple contingency plans in place to deal with immediate traffic control, incident response and field operations during longer-term bridge repair or reconstruction projects. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The Francis Scott Key Bridge carries more than 30,000 vehicles daily past the Port of Baltimore, which serves many container ships daily.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What are some major challenges of rerouting traffic?</h2>
<p>Bridges are potential choke points in highway networks. When a bridge fails, traffic immediately stops and begins to flow elsewhere, even without a formal detouring plan. Transportation agencies need to build or find excess capacity before a bridge fails, so that the disrupted traffic has alternative routes. </p>
<p>This is usually manageable in major urban areas that have many parallel routes and bridges and built-in redundancy in their road networks. But for rural areas, failure of a major bridge can mean extra hours or even days of travel. </p>
<p>When traffic has to be rerouted off an interstate highway, it can cause safety and access problems. If large trucks are diverted to local streets that were not designed for such vehicles, they may get stuck on railroad tracks or in spaces too small for them to turn around. Heavy trucks can damage roads and bridges with low weight limits, and tall trucks may be too large to fit through low-clearance underpasses.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A highway at night, jammed with traffic on one side, the other side empty." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Traffic is jammed on I-10 westbound amid evacuations ahead of Hurricane Delta on Oct. 8, 2020, in Lake Charles, Louisiana.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/traffic-is-jammed-on-i-10-westbound-amid-evacuations-ahead-news-photo/1279252464">Mario Tama/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Successful rerouting requires a lot of coordination between agencies and jurisdictions. They may have to adjust road signal timing to deal with extra cars and changed traffic patterns. Local drivers may need to be directed away from these alternative routes to prevent major congestion. </p>
<p>It’s also important to communicate with navigation apps like <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/about/#!/">Google Maps</a> and <a href="https://www.waze.com/apps/">Waze</a>, which every driver has access to. Route choices that speed up individual trips may cause serious congestion if everyone decides to take the same alternate route and it doesn’t have enough capacity to handle the extra traffic.</p>
<h2>Can these events permanently change commuting and traffic patterns?</h2>
<p>In some cases, yes. Some repairs take months, such as the 2022 crack in the <a href="https://www.ualrpublicradio.org/local-regional-news/2022-02-21/how-authorities-missed-the-flaw-that-nearly-brought-down-the-i-40-bridge">I-40 Hernando De Soto Bridge</a> across the Mississippi River in Memphis, Tennessee. Others can stretch over years, such as the 2007 collapse of the <a href="https://www.lrl.mn.gov/guides/guides?issue=bridges">I-35W bridge</a> in Minneapolis. Some structures are rebuilt elsewhere, like the <a href="https://highways.dot.gov/public-roads/marchapril-1998/replacing-oaklands-cypress-freeway">I-880 Cypress Street viaduct</a> in Oakland, California, which collapsed during the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. </p>
<p>While traffic is disrupted, motorists change their commute patterns or may even switch to other modes, such as buses or commuter rail. But after repairs are completed, even if some commuters don’t return to their old routes, new traffic soon will take advantage of the restored capacity. In the end, it’s hard to tell just by looking at usage whether commuters have changed their travel patterns permanently.</p>
<h2>Will money from the 2021 infrastructure bill reduce the risk of these kinds of events?</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, things do fall apart. U.S. infrastructure has been <a href="https://infrastructurereportcard.org/">deteriorating for decades</a>. The American Road & Transportation Builders Association has estimated that <a href="https://artbabridgereport.org/">1 in 3 U.S. bridges need repair</a>. </p>
<p>At the current rate, we are unlikely to catch up to a state of good repair any time soon. But strategic investments like the 2021 infrastructure bill can likely help repair and address critical deterioration concerns for some high-risk bridges, roads, dams and other structures. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RYeTRa8GJ-8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This time-lapse video shows crews working around the clock to build a temporary roadway at the site of a collapsed overpass on Interstate 95 in north Philadelphia.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Can public transit fill part of the gap?</h2>
<p>Public transit may be able to fill the gap in several ways when key roadway links are destroyed or damaged.</p>
<p>Fixed-route rail transit services, such as Washington, D.C.’s Metro and commuter rail services in Chicago, typically have exclusive rights of way, which let them travel at higher speed than buses on surface streets. They also have high capacity that can be increased by adding more cars to each train or running trains more frequently. </p>
<p>If those systems’ routes are not disrupted due to something like a bridge collapse, they may be able to operate above their normal loads. Drivers can shift to transit as long as their trip origins and destinations are conveniently located near transit stations.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1772554130365550738"}"></div></p>
<p>Bus transit services don’t usually have exclusive rights of way or means to add extra carrying capacity per vehicle. But they have more flexibility to extend the service areas that they cover and connect otherwise non-walkable locales.</p>
<p>Coordinating use of various transit services and creatively adjusting bus lines could address some local travel needs, such as daily commutes and school and shopping trips. But local public transit services struggle to fill longer-distance gaps that extend beyond their service areas.</p>
<p>In major urban areas like Philadelphia that have large populations and have invested a lot in their transit systems, public transit could carry as much as 25% of daily commute trips. But for disruptions outside of major cities, such as a bridge collapse on an interstate highway in a rural area, public transit probably won’t have much of a role.</p>
<p>It’s also important to note that public transit services are for moving people. Freight shipments, which rely on trucks and other specialized vehicles, also need to get through or around disrupted zones. This often requires large commercial trucks either to use nearby local streets that weren’t designed for such big, heavy vehicles, or to make long-distance detours. That increases delays, pollution, safety risks and transportation costs that will eventually be passed on to consumers.</p>
<p><em>This is an update of an article originally published on June 29, 2023.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207779/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lee D. Han receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the Department of Transportation. </span></em></p>Transportation agencies plan for events like major bridge or highway collapses, but these events can disrupt traffic for months and affect residential neighborhoods as well as motorists.Lee D. Han, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of TennesseeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1828832022-09-27T19:01:06Z2022-09-27T19:01:06ZResearch into 1930s commuting in London shows how public transport boosts the labour market<p>Following <a href="https://theconversation.com/mayoral-elections-is-londons-transport-system-on-track-or-off-the-rails-159091">losses</a> of £1.5bn in annual fare revenues incurred during the pandemic, Transport for London recently <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/aug/30/tfl-funding-deal-means-tube-fares-must-rise-and-bus-services-be-cut">signed a deal</a> with the UK government for emergency funding. The agreement ensures that new train orders, bridge repairs and tube upgrades will continue as planned. It also will lead to tube fares rising and <a href="https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/full-list-of-london-bus-routes-facing-the-axe-in-tfl-cuts/">bus services being cut</a>. </p>
<p>While the <a href="https://www.crossrail.co.uk/news/articles/the-elizabeth-line-unveiled-on-latest-london-tube-map">Elizabeth Line</a>, a £19 billion east-west addition to the London Underground, opened to great fanfare in May 2022, this year has also seen some of the oldest bus routes in the UK axed: including route 144 between Worcester and Birmingham, <a href="https://www.mylondon.news/news/south-london-news/another-london-bus-route-set-24454780">route 477 between Dartford and Orpington</a>, and route 84 between north London and Hertfordshire. At least <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jul/02/more-than-100-bus-routes-in-england-face-cuts-and-cancellations#:%7E:text=More%20than%20100%20bus%20routes%20in%20England%20face%20cuts%20and%20cancellations,-Falling%20passenger%20numbers&text=At%20least%20135%20bus%20routes,staff%20shortages%20and%20funding%20constraints">135 bus routes</a> countrywide currently face cutbacks or permanent cancellation.</p>
<p>The standard justification for public transport closures is economic feasibility – a lack of <a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/north-london-barnet-84-metroline-st-albans-axed-b981482.html">profitability</a> for the service provider. </p>
<p>As our work <a href="https://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp1868.pdf">shows</a>, however, such discussions often miss much of the full value of public transport to society. In addition to making profits for operators, public transport opens up <a href="https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/2051/how-important-is-access-to-jobs-old-question-improved-answer">labour market opportunities</a> for workers, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/226989900_Transport_facilities_and_residential_choice_behavior_A_model_of_multi-person_choice_processes">increases residential choice</a>, and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-08-29/the-commuting-principle-that-shaped-urban-history">reduces crowding</a> in inner-city areas.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An archival photo of a bus in black and white." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485031/original/file-20220916-24-z5r53s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485031/original/file-20220916-24-z5r53s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485031/original/file-20220916-24-z5r53s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485031/original/file-20220916-24-z5r53s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485031/original/file-20220916-24-z5r53s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485031/original/file-20220916-24-z5r53s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485031/original/file-20220916-24-z5r53s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A double-decker bus in 1930s east London.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/116071498@N08/33910688268">Alan Farrow/flickr</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The advent of working-class commuting</h2>
<p>Our research examines the consequences of working-class access to <a href="https://www.ltmuseum.co.uk/collections/stories/transport">public transport</a> in London in the 1920s and 1930s. </p>
<p>We know from a survey of working-class London conducted in the 1890s, entitled <a href="https://booth.lse.ac.uk/learn-more/what-was-the-inquiry">The Life and Labour of the People of London</a>, that Victorian-era workers were typically employed in the immediate area of their home. Indeed, the homes themselves were often extensions of factories as “outwork” was a common phenomenon. </p>
<p>This absence of commuting in the 19th century led to widespread <a href="https://victorianweb.org/history/slums.html">urban crowding</a>, as industry typically clustered geographically due to economies of scale and <a href="https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/glossary/agglomeration-economies/#:%7E:text=Agglomeration%20economies%20or%20external%20economies,Supply%20of%20trained%20workers">agglomeration</a>. Social reformers commented on how crowding caused <a href="https://www.hiddenlives.org.uk/articles/poverty.html">poverty</a> and what they perceived to be <a href="https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/cross_fac/iatl/reinvention/archive/volume1issue1/joyce/">“vice”</a>, as well as the spread of <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/z2d68mn/revision/4">diseases</a>. </p>
<p>Over the next 40 years, growth of the transport networks opened up opportunities for working-class commuting. <a href="https://www.londonreconnections.com/2020/a-tale-of-two-systems-london-and-new-york-city/">By 1930</a>, most residents and workers in the north and west of London had access to the Underground, most in the south and east had access to a tram, and almost everyone had access to at least one bus route. Only 1% of Londoners lived more than 560 metres from a <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1nEWX5kIXo78WSipTq2f-uoHZpfyxP8NxJdKucxgbINY/edit">public transport stop</a>.</p>
<p>We have used the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2342215#metadata_info_tab_contents">New Survey of London Life and Labour</a>, a 1930 follow-up survey which contains a large sample of working-class Londoners, to examine how early public transport networks affected the labour market. This data contains, among other things, each worker’s place of residence and work. </p>
<p>By “<a href="https://theconversation.com/data-mashups-can-help-answer-the-worlds-biggest-questions-25684">GIS coding</a>” this information, along with the entire extant public transport system in the London area, we were able to calculate their commuting distances, the centrality of their residences and workplaces, and their access to public transport. </p>
<p>Our research shows that commuting in 1930 followed many of the same patterns as today. The largest number of workers (about 38%) commuted inwards towards the city centre. The next-largest group (29%) worked within a kilometre of their residence. The remaining workers were evenly split between people travelling away from the centre for work and others travelling across the city.</p>
<p>To illustrate the typical commuting patterns, let’s look at where residents of Wandsworth Borough, located about nine kilometres southwest of the city centre, commuted for work.</p>
<p><strong>Share of commute from Wandsworth by borough, 1930:</strong></p>
<p>We found that the average residence had 212 employers (in any industry) within a one-kilometre radius, 1,700 within three, and 4,333 within five. Moreover – holding age, gender, occupation and workplace area as constants – an additional kilometre commuted increased earnings by 1.5% to 3.0%, although the additional returns on longer commutes were likely less. These higher earnings considerably outweighed the monetary cost of public transport. </p>
<h2>Access to transport leads to increased job opportunities</h2>
<p>To understand the importance of public transport networks to labour markets, it is necessary to understand the reasons behind these large returns to commuting. We focus on two explanations why a commuting worker might have earned more than a local worker. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2018/06/advanced-economicsciences2010.pdf">Search theory</a> suggests that individual workers are better suited to some employers than others. Someone who can only work near to home, as was typical for workers in the Victorian period, only has a small number of employers to choose from. </p>
<p>But a worker who can travel using public transport, as had become the norm by 1930, can potentially work for more different employers. This in turn implies there will be a higher probability of a good match between workers and employers, and thus higher productivity and wages. </p>
<p>In the 1930s, British economist <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/27918009#metadata_info_tab_contents">Joan Robinson</a> in her book <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2548808#metadata_info_tab_contents">The Economics of Imperfect Competition</a> formulated a theory of microeconomics she called <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/0895330027300">monopsony</a>. A slightly modified version of this theory suggests that, in the absence of public transport, local employers have a degree of monopoly power over their workers. </p>
<p>Employers can pay less than the market wage because it is costly for workers to switch to more distant jobs. The construction of London’s public transport networks in the early 20th century opened up remote employment opportunities for workers, and thus reduced local employers’ monopoly power.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485037/original/file-20220916-24-qctrsk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An archival photo of a bus in a city centre, in black and white." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485037/original/file-20220916-24-qctrsk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485037/original/file-20220916-24-qctrsk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485037/original/file-20220916-24-qctrsk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485037/original/file-20220916-24-qctrsk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485037/original/file-20220916-24-qctrsk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485037/original/file-20220916-24-qctrsk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485037/original/file-20220916-24-qctrsk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A London bus crossing Charing Cross Road with Tottenham Court Road underground station to the left.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.geograph.org.uk/more.php?id=3212330">George W Baker | Geograph</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Public transport improvements between 1890 and 1930 broke the link between residence and workplace. This allowed first the middle class and then the working class to move away from the city centre. </p>
<p>One result was a dramatic decrease in urban crowding and the associated concentration of poverty and spread of disease. As we have shown in our research, another implication was that workers were no longer constrained to working locally, and could seek out better employment opportunities further form home. This led to substantially higher wages for the working class of London.</p>
<p>These lessons about public transport from the 1930s still resonate today. If historical improvements in public transport increased the efficiency of London’s labour market, more recent cuts to infrastructure and increases in ticket prices will likely have the opposite effect. Workers who are no longer able to commute large distances or who face higher costs of doing so will likely also face a restricted set of employment opportunities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182883/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Transport route closures are usually justified to the public on grounds of profitability. But that ignores the immense value of public transport to the labour market.Andrew J. Seltzer, Professor of Economics and Economic History, Royal Holloway University of LondonJonathan Wadsworth, Professor of Economics, Royal Holloway University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1760622022-02-02T14:37:44Z2022-02-02T14:37:44ZGhana’s COVID lockdown: why it triggered a toxic mix of mass defiance and police violence<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443680/original/file-20220201-19-1uxrrkd.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The lockdown of Accra at the peak of the pandemic was poorly received</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by Delali Adogla-Bessa</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ghana confirmed its first 2 cases of COVID-19 infections on March 12, 2020 which increased to <a href="https://www.ghs.gov.gh/covid19/archive.php">152 with 5 deaths by March 30</a>. Sensing that the virus may spread and overload the healthcare systems, the President imposed a <a href="https://www.graphic.com.gh/news/politics/accra-tema-kasoa-and-kumasi-under-partial-lockdown.html">three-week lockdown</a> in the communities considered as infection hotspots. These included Accra, the capital and Kumasi, the second biggest city and their environs. </p>
<p>Many people disregarded the lockdown and went about their daily lives. One state media, Graphic Online, ran the <a href="https://www.graphic.com.gh/news/general-news/public-defy-lockdown-directive-in-accra-kumasi.html">headline</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Public defy lockdown directive in Accra, Kumasi. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Traffic remained at a standstill in the cities as the police sought to check hundreds of vehicles with the view to enforcing the <a href="https://www.graphic.com.gh/news/general-news/public-defy-lockdown-directive-in-accra-kumasi.html">lockdown directive</a>. Some commuters tried to outwit law enforcement officials by faking identity cards designed for people exempted from the restrictions. Others tried to avoid security officials at checkpoints by trekking long distances or boarding ‘Okadas’ (motorbikes) that used narrow walkways and bushes to beat the police and transport people to <a href="https://www.graphic.com.gh/news/general-news/public-defy-lockdown-directive-in-accra-kumasi.html">various destinations</a>.</p>
<p>The media, police, politicians and social commentators and other powerful actors and institutions in the country blamed the mass-defiance on indiscipline. This narrative echoed the rather <a href="https://www.african-review.com/online-first-details.php?id=31">deep-seated view</a> that the intractable social problems in the country are primarily due to bad attitudes–Ghanaians penchant for breaking laws and disregarding cherished values.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2084686?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">criminological and sociological research</a> has shown that people’s personal characteristics or morality offer severely limited explanatory weight for deviant behaviours. </p>
<p>We, therefore, <a href="https://www.african-review.com/online-first-details.php?id=31">set out to explore</a> what really lay behind the failure of people to adhere to the lockdown.</p>
<p>We argue that most Ghanaians could not lockdown because they are trapped in precarious jobs, and in poorly serviced overcrowded neighbourhoods. And that any analysis of the lockdown defiance – and urban social problems generally – must move beyond the simplistic notion of indiscipline. Instead, they must dissect how deliberate bias against the needs of the majority operates, and is institutionalised in ways that undermine people’s commitment to rules and regulations.</p>
<p>We believe that our findings provide useful lessons on how Ghana’s cities could be managed better.</p>
<h2>The drivers of mass defiance, and the reaction</h2>
<p>Most Ghanaians – some reports estimate <a href="https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/ghana/10496.pdf">80% of the workforce</a> – work in the informal sector. Most informal jobs aren’t digitised which means that people have to rely on regular social interaction in close proximity to others. </p>
<p>Second, the formal housing market benefits a privileged few. The result is increased use of inadequate and insecure structures as housing in slums and other poorly serviced areas in the cities. These include kiosks and containers. </p>
<p>The provisional results of the 2021 Population and Housing Census issued by the <a href="https://census2021.statsghana.gov.gh/bannerpage.php?readmorenews=MTM3MjM1Mzg1OS41Nzg=&Release-of-Provisional-Results">Ghana Statistical Service </a> suggest that 6 out of every 10 of the 10.7 million structures in the country are used for residential purposes. Of these, <a href="https://census2021.statsghana.gov.gh/bannerpage.php?readmorenews=MTM3MjM1Mzg1OS41Nzg=&Release-of-Provisional-Results">20% </a> are containers, kiosks, and wooden structures. </p>
<p>Trapped in precarious low-income jobs, and in poorly serviced overcrowded neighbourhoods, the majority of the population could not lockdown, resulting in mass-defiance. </p>
<p>Stressed by the mass-defiance, <a href="https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/Coronavirus-lockdown-We-might-not-be-friendly-again-Police-910195">the police threatened</a> that</p>
<blockquote>
<p>some Ghanaians have decided to take the Police for granted and are flouting the President’s lockdown directive with impunity. The Police will no longer tolerate this kind of attitude again. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Soon security personnel were captured on tape <a href="https://justnanaama.com/2020/06/in-ghana-no-life-matters-unless-youre-among-the-political-elite/">brutalising unarmed civilians</a> who supposedly had breached the lockdown rules. </p>
<p>The extralegal punishments ranged from the <a href="https://justnanaama.com/2020/06/in-ghana-no-life-matters-unless-youre-among-the-political-elite/">mildly humiliating to the downright violent</a>. There was footage of drivers being made to crawl on their knees, young men forced to do squats and women forced to hop to their homes. A <a href="https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/Lockdown-60-year-old-narrates-how-she-was-brutalized-by-police-912175">60-year old woman</a> was seen weeping on camera, like a child, after being lashed by the police for going to the market. </p>
<p>The violence meted out to alleged violators of the restrictions echoes the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-020-00695-5">‘war against indiscipline’</a>; <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0169796X1102700406">‘slum clearance’</a>, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0169796X1102700406">‘decongestion exercises’</a>, <a href="https://citinewsroom.com/2021/05/ama-to-partner-security-agencies-to-demolish-illegal-structures-at-obetsebi-lamptey/#:%7E:text=AMA%20to%20partner%20security%20agencies%20to%20demolish%20illegal%20structures%20at%20Obetsebi%20Lamptey,-byMarian%20Ansah&text=Hundreds%20of%20illegal%20structures%20mounted,Greater%20Accra%20Regional%20Coordinating%20Council.">‘demolition of illegal structures</a>’ and other aggressive, strategies the authorities frequently invoke in dealing with the urban working class. </p>
<p>The challenge for the authorities during the enforcement of the COVID-19 lockdown, however, was that, this time around, they were facing the workers collectively as the marginalised class that they are. As a result, even as the brutalities continued, an even greater number of them kept on defying the restrictions. </p>
<p>This, in turn, drove law enforcement officials to behave even more savagely. </p>
<p>As footage of more brutalities and stand-offs kept surfacing, it became apparent to the government that the lockdown was losing its moral authority, compelling the <a href="https://www.graphic.com.gh/news/politics/full-address-president-akufo-addo-updates-ghana-on-covid-19.html">President to lift it</a>. </p>
<h2>Governing cities better</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.african-review.com/online-first-details.php?id=31">Our paper</a> sheds light on the inadequacy of law enforcement violence as a tool for addressing crime and other problems often associated with the precarious existence of informal workers in cities in Ghana. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.african-review.com/blog-details.php?id=16">Multiple studies</a> have shown that the activities of informal workers in the cities reflect continuing state failure to prioritise investments that support the life chances of the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0169796X1102700406">majority of the urban population</a>. </p>
<p>This suggests that Ghanaian authorities could elicit more cooperation from the people in governing the cities by creating conditions that give the majority a chance to have a shot at decent life. A starting point could be prioritising investments that create more decent and secure jobs, and expand adequate serviced housing. </p>
<p>Informal workers will remain an integral part of Ghana’s urban economy for the foreseeable future. This requires the country to explore better strategies to elicit their cooperation in governing cities. </p>
<p><em>Samuel Ametepey and Savior Kusi contributed to this and the <a href="https://www.african-review.com/online-first-details.php?id=31">original article</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176062/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Festival Godwin Boateng does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ghanaian authorities could elicit more cooperation from citizens in governing the cities by creating conditions that give the majority a chance at a decent lifeFestival Godwin Boateng, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Centre for Sustainable Urban Development, The Earth Institute, Columbia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1621832021-06-08T20:06:30Z2021-06-08T20:06:30ZTowards the 30-minute city — how Australians’ commutes compare with cities overseas<p>The ease of reaching urban amenities underpins city life. We led a global research team that compared access to jobs in 117 cities across the globe, including eight capital cities in Australia, and examined strategies that might improve transport in our cities. The <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-021-00020-2">newly published research</a> finds access to jobs increases with population and that our two largest cities, Sydney and Melbourne, compare favourably with similarly sized cities overseas.</p>
<p>Transport infrastructure and land use patterns form the backbone of a city. It’s the reason so many people choose to live and work with other people in cities – despite the noise, congestion and negatives of city life – because they can easily reach a variety of destinations. Towards this objective, many planning agencies set themselves a “30-minute city” goal, which is behind many planning decisions.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404975/original/file-20210608-136167-cap00p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="heat map showing number of jobs accessible within 30 minutes across Greater Sydney" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404975/original/file-20210608-136167-cap00p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404975/original/file-20210608-136167-cap00p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404975/original/file-20210608-136167-cap00p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404975/original/file-20210608-136167-cap00p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404975/original/file-20210608-136167-cap00p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404975/original/file-20210608-136167-cap00p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404975/original/file-20210608-136167-cap00p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Heat map showing access to jobs across Greater Sydney. Red denotes more jobs and green fewer jobs within 30 minutes’ travel time.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/access-across-australia-mapping-30-minute-cities-how-do-our-capitals-compare-117498">Access across Australia: mapping 30-minute cities, how do our capitals compare?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What did the study find?</h2>
<p>The ease of reaching destinations can be measured by the number of jobs reachable within 30 minutes. Job locations offer both employment opportunities and amenities; restaurants, schools, hospitals, shopping centres and so on are also job clusters. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-021-00020-2">research</a> measured how many jobs were accessible within 30 minutes (travelling one way) for four different modes of transport – cars, public transport, cycling and walking. The 117 cities studied are in 16 countries on six continents. The research finds cities really differ in the convenience of transport, but also finds significant similarities between cities from the same country. </p>
<p>Australian and Canadian cities have poorer car access than US, European and Chinese cities. They have better public transport, walking and cycling access than US cities, but access via these modes is generally not as good as in Europe and China.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-city-workers-average-commute-has-blown-out-to-66-minutes-a-day-how-does-yours-compare-120598">Australian city workers' average commute has blown out to 66 minutes a day. How does yours compare?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Cities in the United States have reasonable car access, but lag behind globally in public transport, walking and cycling access. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405235/original/file-20210609-23-sztbig.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing numbers of jobs accessible within 30 minutes' cycling plotted against population for global cities." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405235/original/file-20210609-23-sztbig.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405235/original/file-20210609-23-sztbig.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405235/original/file-20210609-23-sztbig.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405235/original/file-20210609-23-sztbig.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405235/original/file-20210609-23-sztbig.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=696&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405235/original/file-20210609-23-sztbig.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=696&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405235/original/file-20210609-23-sztbig.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=696&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Number of jobs accessible within 30 minutes’ cycling plotted against population for global cities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-021-00020-2">Urban Access Across the Globe 2021</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Chinese and European cities, compact development combined with an intensive network produces the highest access globally across all modes of transport. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405238/original/file-20210609-17-17b0500.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing number of jobs accessible within 30 minutes’ walking plotted against population for global cities." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405238/original/file-20210609-17-17b0500.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405238/original/file-20210609-17-17b0500.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405238/original/file-20210609-17-17b0500.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405238/original/file-20210609-17-17b0500.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405238/original/file-20210609-17-17b0500.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405238/original/file-20210609-17-17b0500.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405238/original/file-20210609-17-17b0500.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Number of jobs accessible within 30 minutes’ walking plotted against population for global cities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-021-00020-2">Urban Access Across the Globe 2021</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One surprising finding is the middling car access in US cities. Despite the reputation of US cities being built around the car, urban sprawl has made it difficult to reach destinations even by car. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405231/original/file-20210609-23-1gnc78a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing numbers of jobs accessible within 30 minutes' drive by car plotted against population for global cities." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405231/original/file-20210609-23-1gnc78a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405231/original/file-20210609-23-1gnc78a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405231/original/file-20210609-23-1gnc78a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405231/original/file-20210609-23-1gnc78a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405231/original/file-20210609-23-1gnc78a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405231/original/file-20210609-23-1gnc78a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405231/original/file-20210609-23-1gnc78a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Number of jobs accessible within 30 minutes by car plotted against population for global cities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-021-00020-2">Urban Access Across the Globe 2021</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This sprawl also exposes the Achilles heel in mass transit and non-motorised modes. Immense spatial separation makes for worse access by public transport and active modes of transport such as cycling and walking. US cities have the largest disparity between public transport and car travel.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405230/original/file-20210609-23-10ue63m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing number of jobs accessible within 30 minutes by public transport plotted against population for global cities." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405230/original/file-20210609-23-10ue63m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405230/original/file-20210609-23-10ue63m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405230/original/file-20210609-23-10ue63m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405230/original/file-20210609-23-10ue63m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405230/original/file-20210609-23-10ue63m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=694&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405230/original/file-20210609-23-10ue63m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=694&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405230/original/file-20210609-23-10ue63m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=694&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Number of jobs accessible within 30 minutes by public transport plotted against population for global cities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-021-00020-2">Urban Access Across the Globe 2021</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This research also finds access to jobs increases with city population, so reaching a greater number of desired destinations would be easier for people in larger cities than in smaller cities. So, despite traffic congestion, larger cities are still more efficient in connecting people with places they want to go. </p>
<p>However, this benefit has diminishing returns. Doubling the metropolitan population results in less than a doubling of access to jobs. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-close-is-sydney-to-the-vision-of-creating-three-30-minute-cities-115847">How close is Sydney to the vision of creating three 30-minute cities?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What are the lessons for Australian cities?</h2>
<p>The moral of the story is that we don’t need to choose between the US-style sprawling development and European-style compact cities. We can and should have the benefits of both development patterns. We need both density and a well-developed transport network for better access. </p>
<p>Massive road building alone can improve access by car to only a limited extent. The problem is that investments in road infrastructure are often accompanied by lower-density development. That makes it harder for people who walk, bike or use public transport to reach increasingly separated places.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/three-changes-in-how-we-live-could-derail-the-dream-of-the-30-minute-city-110287">Three changes in how we live could derail the dream of the 30-minute city</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In cities that do have compact land-use patterns, access to jobs remain high across all modes of transport, including cars. So, despite congestion, it is still easier to reach desired destinations in these compact cities. Roads are not race tracks, and high-speed roadways connecting nobody with nowhere are not better than lower-speed paths connecting people and places. </p>
<p>The Australian government is investing <a href="https://investment.infrastructure.gov.au/">A$110 billion</a> over the next ten years in transport infrastructure. This will have significant implications for the future of our cities. If we want our cities to continue to be vibrant, liveable and accessible by all modes of transport, we will need to keep our cities compact and invest more in public transport, walking and biking.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/people-love-the-idea-of-20-minute-neighbourhoods-so-why-isnt-it-top-of-the-agenda-131193">People love the idea of 20-minute neighbourhoods. So why isn't it top of the agenda?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162183/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Levinson has received grants as a Professor at the University of Sydney, including funding from the iMOVE CRC. He has also received funding from the World Bank. He is on the Board of WalkSydney. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hao Wu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A global study of 117 cities finds Australian capitals have fairly poor access by car. Public transport, cycling and walking access is better than in the US, but not as good as in Europe and China.Hao Wu, PhD Candidate, School of Civil Engineering, University of SydneyDavid Levinson, Professor of Transport, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1585892021-05-21T12:27:08Z2021-05-21T12:27:08ZPandemic-stricken mass transit would get $85 billion in Biden stimulus plan – a down payment on reviving American cities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401721/original/file-20210519-13-1is09cw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=36%2C0%2C5993%2C4013&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">New York's Metropolitan Transportation Authority was hit hard by a 79% ridership reduction during the pandemic. It needs an extra $8 billion through 2024 to avoid service cuts and layoffs.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/pedestrians-pass-by-a-subway-station-in-manhattan-on-may-17-news-photo/1318524077?adppopup=true">Spencer Platt/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Congress now has control over what kind of commute – good, bad, awful – workers returning to offices in the U.S. will have.</p>
<p>President Joe Biden’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/31/fact-sheet-the-american-jobs-plan/">American Jobs Plan</a>, released in March 2021, includes US$85 billion for city transit agencies to improve their systems by purchasing new buses and train cars and maintaining subway stations and tracks. </p>
<p>If passed in Congress, the dollars would explicitly build on the relief already provided to cities in last year’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/legislation/2021/01/20/president-biden-announces-american-rescue-plan/">American Rescue Plan</a>, according to the White House. That coronavirus relief bill, passed in March 2020, kept fare-starved buses, trains and subways running throughout the pandemic, often with scaled-back service, <a href="https://transitcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/TC_Covid_FINAL_Pages-1.pdf">helping millions of U.S. workers</a> to reach jobs providing essential services. The money covered <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/ncsl-in-dc/publications-and-resources/american-rescue-plan-act-of-2021.aspx">payroll, rider safety measures and pandemic protective equipment for drivers</a>.</p>
<p>Each of these bills supports <a href="https://www.democrats.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/American%20Rescue%20Plan%20Act%20-%205307%20Runs%20(Tentative)%203.8.21.pdf">public transit systems</a> in different but critical ways. U.S. transit agencies have always maintained a delicate balance in how they spend scarce taxpayer money, between <a href="https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat-item/transit/">operations and capital investment</a>. </p>
<p>In practice, both are necessary to keep subway and bus systems running – and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=zbew56MAAAAJ&hl=en">as a scholar of urban planning</a> who studies transportation systems, I emphasize the necessity of reliable mass transit to revitalize American cities post-pandemic. </p>
<h2>Languishing systems</h2>
<p>Even before COVID-19, transit agencies lacked the money to maintain their systems. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat-item/transit/">recent report</a> the American Society of Civil Engineers gave a D minus to American transit infrastructure. The country’s aging “fixed-rail” systems, <a href="https://eh.net/encyclopedia/urban-mass-transit-in-the-united-states/">a category that includes subways, commuter rail and light rail</a>, are in chronic disrepair. Boston’s subway system opened in 1897 and others shortly thereafter, or in the 1960s and 1970s. Over time, these systems require more investment just to maintain reliable service. </p>
<p>During recessions, however, many have foregone it out of financial necessity. And starting around 2014, <a href="https://www.apta.com/wp-content/uploads/APTA-2020-Survey-Impact-COVID-19-Agencies.pdf">transit agencies saw declining ridership</a> – and resulting revenue decreases – as on-demand services like Uber and Lyft expanded nationwide. </p>
<p>The American Society of Civil Engineers documented the predictable consequences. The industry has $176 billion in needed investments that is expected to grow to <a href="https://infrastructurereportcard.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Transit-2021.pdf">$250 billion by 2029</a>. Currently, 19% of transit vehicles and 6% of tracks and tunnels are rated in “poor condition.” </p>
<h2>Essential service for all workers</h2>
<p>The pandemic further upset the fragile <a href="https://www.apta.com/wp-content/uploads/APTA-COVID-19-Funding-Impact-2021-01-27.pdf">financial balance of American mass transit</a>.</p>
<p>Ridership on subways, trains and buses nationwide plummeted <a href="https://www.apta.com/wp-content/uploads/2020-Q4-Ridership-APTA.pdf">80% during April 2020</a> as people who could work remotely did. Large-scale events, like sports and concerts, were canceled. People increasingly ordered goods online.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401723/original/file-20210519-12241-s5mwrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Four gleaming, clean and unused ticket-vending machines in a subway station" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401723/original/file-20210519-12241-s5mwrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401723/original/file-20210519-12241-s5mwrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401723/original/file-20210519-12241-s5mwrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401723/original/file-20210519-12241-s5mwrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401723/original/file-20210519-12241-s5mwrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401723/original/file-20210519-12241-s5mwrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401723/original/file-20210519-12241-s5mwrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">An empty Metro station in Los Angeles, Calif., on March 19, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-empty-metro-subway-station-is-seen-during-the-covid-19-news-photo/1217215255?adppopup=true">Morgan Lieberman/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Some people – those who deliver goods, pick up trash and take care of patients – never stopped reporting to work during the pandemic. Other essential workers, such as construction and restaurant staff, soon resumed on-site work. But cities saw <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/03/08/climate/nyc-transit-covid.html">much less daily movement</a> of people. </p>
<p>Studies suggest that the sharpest decline in transit ridership occurred in regions with higher percentages of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2020.102654">white, educated and high-income workers</a>. Regions with more jobs in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2020.102654">trade, transportation and utilities</a> saw lower declines. So did transit systems in <a href="https://www.govtech.com/fs/after-a-devastating-year-transit-is-adapting-to-the-future.html">the South</a>, where a higher percentage of riders may be essential workers.</p>
<p>Less money from fares was compounded by reductions to the various local and state taxes and other revenue sources that <a href="https://www.apta.com/wp-content/uploads/APTA-COVID-19-Funding-Impact-2021-01-27.pdf">help support transit operations</a>. New York’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/03/08/climate/nyc-transit-covid.html">Metropolitan Transportation Authority</a> says it will require an additional <a href="https://new.mta.info/document/30186">$8 billion through 2024 to avoid service cuts and layoffs</a>.</p>
<h2>Everyone wants good transit</h2>
<p>Many essential workers are what transportation planners often refer to as “captive riders” – they have to use public transit. They contrast with higher-income “choice riders,” who sometimes own cars. </p>
<p>This longstanding distinction between “captive” and “choice” transit riders, however, <a href="https://usa.streetsblog.org/2016/07/12/the-choice-vs-captive-transit-rider-dichotomy-is-all-wrong/">ignores that most people who live in cities</a> want affordable and convenient ways to reach a diversity of destinations, not just their offices but also <a href="https://nytransit.org/resources/public-transit-facts">shops, their friends’ houses, parks and theaters</a>.</p>
<p>Ultimately, how urbanites get to those places depends on where they live. According to a <a href="https://transitcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/TransitCenter-WOB-2016.pdf">survey of 3,000 transit riders</a> nationwide conducted by the New York nonprofit TransitCenter, “in walkable neighborhoods with frequent transit service, people with and without cars both ride transit more than people in areas with poor transit.”</p>
<p>This is why public transit’s societal benefits extend beyond shuttling people to and from work. It offers choice about how they travel, which reduces congestion. According to the <a href="https://static.tti.tamu.edu/tti.tamu.edu/documents/mobility-report-2019.pdf">Texas A&M Transportation Institute</a>, the average driving commuter wastes 54 hours per year in traffic, costing them $1,080 in wasted time and fuel. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401725/original/file-20210519-21-1w5vw3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Congested highway with a city in background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401725/original/file-20210519-21-1w5vw3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401725/original/file-20210519-21-1w5vw3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401725/original/file-20210519-21-1w5vw3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401725/original/file-20210519-21-1w5vw3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401725/original/file-20210519-21-1w5vw3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401725/original/file-20210519-21-1w5vw3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401725/original/file-20210519-21-1w5vw3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Boston at evening rush hour on Aug. 6, 2020. By then, state data suggested that traffic was approaching pre-pandemic levels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/boston-traffic-at-evening-rush-hour-on-aug-6-2020-state-news-photo/1227951361?adppopup=true">Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Many large urban areas can expect extreme <a href="https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2020/06/05/transportation-lab-predicts-extreme-traffic-for-some-cities-following-covid-19/">traffic congestion this year as workers stop working remotely</a> – if they choose cars over public transportation. Fifty-five percent of Americans <a href="https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat-item/transit/">have access to transit</a>. But car owners will drive if subways and buses cannot maintain frequent, convenient and reliable service. </p>
<h2>Transit is safe</h2>
<p>As for COVID-19 risk on public transportation, evidence shows <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/10/nyregion/nyc-subway-coronavirus.html">it is quite low</a>.</p>
<p>The ventilation systems in most transit systems are better than many other indoor spaces. In addition to mandatory mask-wearing, many cities – including Detroit and San Antonio – made transit free or enabled back-door entry <a href="https://nacto.org/covid19-rapid-response-tools-for-transit-agencies/">to limit rider-driver interactions</a>.</p>
<p>These COVID-19 safety protocols, along with good air flow, ensured the safety of transit passengers throughout the pandemic. Enforcing the <a href="https://theconversation.com/public-transit-drivers-struggle-to-enforce-mask-mandates-154689">mask requirement will remain a challenge</a>.</p>
<p>Worldwide, transit agencies in Korea, China and Taiwan continued to carry between 70% and 90% of typical ridership without new local cases among riders. Studies in Japan and France, using contract tracing, showed <a href="https://transitcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/FactSheetFinal.pdf">limited connections between transit usage and COVID-19 clusters</a></p>
<p>If Congress passes the American Jobs Plan, the infrastructure funding it sends to cities and states will encourage American transit agencies to upgrade their buses, trains and subways, improve tracks or expand service <a href="https://apta.com/wp-content/uploads/TRANSIT_PRIORITIES_POST_PANDEMIC_Nov_2020.pdf">for all workers returning to their regular lives</a>. The package allows cities to spend their portion of the $85 billion to <a href="https://escholarship.org/content/qt15t657r2/qt15t657r2.pdf?t=qpo52c">provide the kind of frequent, reliable and less costly service</a> that makes mass transit a more appealing option than a rideshare service. </p>
<p>Good mass transit also encourages people to travel in cities – fueling the pandemic recovery that people badly want and the economy so desperately needs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158589/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ruth Steiner receives funding from United States Department of Transportation (under their University Transportation Center Program (see <a href="https://www.transportation.gov/content/university-transportation-centers">https://www.transportation.gov/content/university-transportation-centers</a>)) and Florida Department of Transportation. </span></em></p>Transit agencies could use the money to buy new subway cars, buses and maintain rails. The funding is designed to build on last year’s emergency aid, which kept transit operating through the pandemic.Ruth Steiner, Professor of Urban and Regional Planning, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1489262020-11-15T18:52:14Z2020-11-15T18:52:14ZCOVID shows working from home the best way to beat congestion<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368951/original/file-20201111-19-ma041d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C36%2C6016%2C3971&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/car-jamming-traffic-jam-1109250887">249 Anurak/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As almost anyone who wastes countless hours stuck in traffic would agree, there’s little more frustrating for workers than starting or ending the day with an overly long commute. But, while we might not like it, more of us are doing it. In 2019, the average daily commute time for Australian metro workers was <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-city-workers-average-commute-has-blown-out-to-66-minutes-a-day-how-does-yours-compare-120598">66 minutes</a>. Then COVID happened.</p>
<p>Although the pandemic has forced change without choice on almost all of us, there have been some positive unintended consequences. Commuting times are one winner, particularly in larger cities. The increase in working from home turns out to be the best policy lever the transport sector has ever pulled for reducing traffic congestion in our cities. </p>
<iframe title="How avoiding the commute is making us happier" height="122" width="100%" style="border: none;" scrolling="no" data-name="pb-iframe-player" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/74h3d-f25c07?from=pb6admin&download=1&version=1&auto=0&share=1&download=1&rtl=0&fonts=Helvetica&skin=1&pfauth=&btn-skin=107"></iframe>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-city-workers-average-commute-has-blown-out-to-66-minutes-a-day-how-does-yours-compare-120598">Australian city workers' average commute has blown out to 66 minutes a day. How does yours compare?</a>
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<p>We began looking at the impacts of the increase in working from home on our roads and public transport from March to September. We found a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.08.004">10-15% drop in peak-period congestion</a>. That’s similar to traffic during school holidays. </p>
<iframe title="Profile of work days and working from home by state" aria-label="chart" id="datawrapper-chart-AJyqT" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/AJyqT/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<iframe title="Profile of work days and working from home by occupation" aria-label="chart" id="datawrapper-chart-1TxZe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/1TxZe/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>COVID-19, it turns out, has done something that nobody in government has been able to achieve – cutting road congestion almost overnight. </p>
<h2>For commuters, time is money</h2>
<p>It’s possible to <a href="https://ses.library.usyd.edu.au/bitstream/handle/2123/15314/VTTScar%20Ho%20Mulley%20Shiftan%20Hensher%2028%20Jan%202016.pdf;jsessionid=3A5FEA2C6F7698B4A2FA63FCE2FA5E5B?sequence=2">calculate how much these kinds of shifts are worth</a> to us as a society. If we weren’t stuck in traffic, what else might we do with that time? And just how much is it worth to us? </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Women looking at watch while stuck in traffic" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368952/original/file-20201111-21-2bxzmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368952/original/file-20201111-21-2bxzmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368952/original/file-20201111-21-2bxzmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368952/original/file-20201111-21-2bxzmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368952/original/file-20201111-21-2bxzmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368952/original/file-20201111-21-2bxzmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368952/original/file-20201111-21-2bxzmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">All that time spent stuck in traffic has a cost.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Syda Productions/Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>The Greater Sydney metropolitan area, covering Newcastle to Wollongong, is a good example. From late May 2020, commuting times declined as working from home boomed. We calculate this cut total commuting time costs by 54%, from A$10.5 billion a year to A$5.58 billion. </p>
<p>Naturally, commuters want to know the impact on their own metaphorical hip pockets. In Greater Sydney, we calculate the average annual reduction in time costs per car commuter was A$2,312 as at May 2020. That’s equivalent to A$48.16 per week, or A$9.63 per weekday. </p>
<p>For the public transport commuter, the “time cost” of being stuck in traffic is higher as their commute is often longer. Their time saving is worth A$5,203 per person, an equivalent of A$108.39 per week or A$21.68 per weekday. </p>
<p>It’s all money that could be better spent elsewhere, especially in the current economic environment. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368948/original/file-20201111-16-gcsivk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing percentage of work days working from home by occupation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368948/original/file-20201111-16-gcsivk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368948/original/file-20201111-16-gcsivk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368948/original/file-20201111-16-gcsivk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368948/original/file-20201111-16-gcsivk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368948/original/file-20201111-16-gcsivk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368948/original/file-20201111-16-gcsivk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368948/original/file-20201111-16-gcsivk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<h2>Transport planning priorities will change</h2>
<p>Congestion shows us working from home is changing more than the workplace: it could have profound implications for road investment and transport policy. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.07.00">Our data</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.08.004">show</a> the increase in working from home is spread evenly across the five weekdays. This is important, since infrastructure and service capacity are typically determined by peak demand. If demand can be flattened, as the data suggest it can be, then the implications for transport planning priorities will be significant.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-more-of-us-work-from-home-after-coronavirus-well-need-to-rethink-city-planning-136261">If more of us work from home after coronavirus we'll need to rethink city planning</a>
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<p>Of course, now that full-time working from home is easing for many, we don’t expect this level of benefit to be sustained. But we believe we’ll still be left with a significant improvement on pre-COVID congestion. Early signs, including from our surveys in September, suggest many people in certain occupations are <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-management-resistance-overcome-working-from-home-may-be-here-to-stay-144850">likely to work from home</a> one to two days a week in the future, with full employer support.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368947/original/file-20201111-22-1j9g4ca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing percentage of work days working from home by occupation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368947/original/file-20201111-22-1j9g4ca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368947/original/file-20201111-22-1j9g4ca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368947/original/file-20201111-22-1j9g4ca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368947/original/file-20201111-22-1j9g4ca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368947/original/file-20201111-22-1j9g4ca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368947/original/file-20201111-22-1j9g4ca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368947/original/file-20201111-22-1j9g4ca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>But to really capture the benefits of this welcome shift on our roads, we need governments to play a role. They need to publicly support working from home as a way of reducing pressure on transport networks, especially in our big cities. </p>
<p>2020 has proven traffic congestion can be reduced without building more roads. What’s more, doing so brings other benefits: in addition to myriad environmental benefits, our increased ability to work from home will open up new opportunities for revitalising suburbia. These adjustments align well with the concept of the 20- or 30-minute city, a strategy many Australian city planners are grappling with.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/people-love-the-idea-of-20-minute-neighbourhoods-so-why-isnt-it-top-of-the-agenda-131193">People love the idea of 20-minute neighbourhoods. So why isn't it top of the agenda?</a>
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<h2>Is there a downside to fewer commutes?</h2>
<p>As more of us spend fewer days commuting, there are risks. For example, we might move more permanently to using private cars for commuting (even once COVID safety issues subside). </p>
<p>If we commute for only three or four days a week, rather than five, we may be more tolerant of the costs associated with driving, such as parking fees and tolls. Even congestion itself may bother us less. </p>
<p>If this occurs, we may have to find other ways to contain this increase in car use if we want to keep those shorter commutes. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-rule-as-coronavirus-shakes-up-travel-trends-in-our-cities-142175">Cars rule as coronavirus shakes up travel trends in our cities</a>
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<h2>Strategies to limit car use in peak periods</h2>
<p>One option is road-pricing reform – a user-pays system. One <a href="https://imovecrc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Bibliography-Tackling-road-congestion-David-A-Hensher.pdf">well-researched</a> user charge is to replace vehicle registration charges (in part or in full) with a distance-based charge (cents/km) during periods of heavy congestion – for example, peak periods in cities. </p>
<p>What makes this option appealing is the ability to set charges at a level that leaves most people no worse off financially (the hip-pocket test), while at the same time reducing peak-period car use to improve travel times. We <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11116-013-9473-6">estimate</a> 5-7c/km would be the right price. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/three-charts-on-why-congestion-charging-is-fairer-than-you-might-think-124894">Three charts on: why congestion charging is fairer than you might think</a>
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<p><a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11116-013-9473-6">Surveys show</a> over 70% of commuters could switch to other times of the day and still use their cars if keen to avoid the distance-based charge. <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11116-013-9473-6">Our modelling</a> suggests this would deliver an 8% improvement in travel times. That’s equivalent to school holiday periods and the shift we’ve seen from the increase in working from home. </p>
<p>It is likely this shift would only increase in a world where working from home means people can work more flexibly.</p>
<p>An alternative strategy to keep congestion low, even if our love for private car travel increases, centres on incentives – rewards similar to those used by supermarkets or airlines. </p>
<p>Why not create incentives like loyalty points for drivers willing to switch to off-peak car use or to public transport? Drivers’ decisions could be tracked via GPS, and resulting reward points converted to cash payments or discounts on travel and other non-transport-related purchases.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-recovery-public-transport-is-key-to-avoid-repeating-old-and-unsustainable-mistakes-138415">Coronavirus recovery: public transport is key to avoid repeating old and unsustainable mistakes</a>
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<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qDNDox3oPhU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Travel post-COVID-19: alternative views from leading academics.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/aUr3Y5E0x4w?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Travel post-COVID-19: Q&A session.</span></figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148926/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Hensher receives funding from ARC and CRC (iMOVE).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Beck receives funding from CRC iMove.</span></em></p>COVID led to commuting time savings worth over $2,000 a year for each driver and $5,000 per public transport user. But as workplaces reopen, we may need road user charges to keep traffic flowing.David Hensher, Director, Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies, University of SydneyMatthew Beck, Associate Professor in Infrastructure Management, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1393842020-06-28T20:09:22Z2020-06-28T20:09:22ZJobs deficit drives army of daily commuters out of Western Sydney<p><em>This is the first of <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/western-sydney-jobs-deficit-88804">three articles</a> based on newly released <a href="https://www.westernsydney.edu.au/cws/policy">research</a> on the impacts of a lack of local jobs on the rapidly growing Western Sydney region.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Western Sydney has a jobs problem. No other big regional economy in Australia fails in providing jobs for its residents more than this one. At the last census the Western Sydney jobs deficit – local jobs minus local workers – was <a href="https://profile.id.com.au/cws/workers">222,000</a>. </p>
<p>If the region’s average rate of jobs growth for this century continues, this deficit will grow to 325,000 by 2036, an increase of over 30%. In our newly released <a href="https://www.westernsydney.edu.au/cws/policy">reports</a> on Western Sydney, we estimate an outflow from the region of 562,000 commuters as a consequence. Over 300,000 people already leave the region each day for work.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-the-people-cant-get-to-their-jobs-bring-the-jobs-to-the-people-57567">If the people can't get to their jobs, bring the jobs to the people</a>
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<p>Young professionals will have a growing presence in this long-distance, grinding, daily flow of workers. It’s an urban planning nightmare.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342580/original/file-20200618-41230-pmezx2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342580/original/file-20200618-41230-pmezx2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342580/original/file-20200618-41230-pmezx2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342580/original/file-20200618-41230-pmezx2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342580/original/file-20200618-41230-pmezx2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342580/original/file-20200618-41230-pmezx2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=766&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342580/original/file-20200618-41230-pmezx2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=766&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342580/original/file-20200618-41230-pmezx2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=766&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Centre for Western Sydney</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>Fifty years ago, Western Sydney was one of Australia’s major industrial regions. In <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/2105.0">1971</a>, a belt of four local government areas – stretching from Bankstown, through Fairfield and Parramatta to Blacktown – was home to 104,000 manufacturing workers, more than one-third of the local workforce. By <a href="https://profile.id.com.au/cws/workers">2016</a> the number of these workers had fallen by two-thirds to only 36,000, or 7.8% of local resident workers.</p>
<p>Yet, unlike many manufacturing regions across the developed world – where de-industrialisation has left <a href="https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/uneven-growth-tackling-city-decline">deep pools of displaced workers</a> – the region hasn’t ended up a rust belt. Western Sydney’s workforce has undergone a remarkable intergenerational reconstruction. </p>
<h2>Education fuels rise of professional class</h2>
<p>University education, in particular, is driving this. In <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/2105.0">1971</a>, only 3,900 degree-holders lived in the old industrial belt described above. By <a href="https://profile.id.com.au/cws/Who-are-we">2016</a>, their number had surged to 198,000.</p>
<p>In the region as a whole, Western Sydney in 2016 was home to 353,000 adults with bachelor or higher degree qualifications. This was <a href="https://profile.id.com.au/cws/Who-are-we">20.7%</a> of all people in the region aged 15 years plus, up from <a href="https://profile.id.com.au/cws/Who-are-we">10.7%</a> in 2001. Clearly a transformative change in the region’s resident workers has been under way. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342650/original/file-20200618-41213-w1n2t7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342650/original/file-20200618-41213-w1n2t7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342650/original/file-20200618-41213-w1n2t7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342650/original/file-20200618-41213-w1n2t7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342650/original/file-20200618-41213-w1n2t7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342650/original/file-20200618-41213-w1n2t7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=795&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342650/original/file-20200618-41213-w1n2t7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=795&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342650/original/file-20200618-41213-w1n2t7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=795&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Click on charts to enlarge.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Centre for Western Sydney. Data: National Economics (NIEIR), 2018</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>At the last census, <a href="https://profile.id.com.au/cws/occupations">20%</a> of Western Sydney’s employed residents were professionals, amounting to 203,000 workers. That’s more than any other occupational group in the region.</p>
<p>We can also see the transformation of the Western Sydney workforce through its take-up of jobs in what has become known as “knowledge-based business services”. This term covers three industry groups: professional, scientific and technical services; financial and insurance services; and information, media and telecommunications.</p>
<p>Here the emergence of the Western Sydney workforce as the real deal is undeniable. Our calculation is that, for 2018, Western Sydney was home to more knowledge-based business services workers (162,000) than Brisbane (159,000) – east-coast Australia’s wonder child – and significantly more than either Perth or Adelaide.</p>
<p>Such is the pace of upskilling in Western Sydney, the growth from 2013-2018 of residents holding jobs in knowledge-based business services outpaced the growth of these job holders in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth combined. </p>
<p>Indeed, our report finds an emerging divide in Australia’s metropolitan economies. Greater Sydney, including Western Sydney, and Greater Melbourne are hurtling ahead as advanced knowledge economies. The other metropolitan regions are lagging.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342595/original/file-20200618-41248-1sdt6do.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342595/original/file-20200618-41248-1sdt6do.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342595/original/file-20200618-41248-1sdt6do.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342595/original/file-20200618-41248-1sdt6do.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342595/original/file-20200618-41248-1sdt6do.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342595/original/file-20200618-41248-1sdt6do.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=720&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342595/original/file-20200618-41248-1sdt6do.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=720&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342595/original/file-20200618-41248-1sdt6do.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=720&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Centre for Western Sydney. Data:National Economics (NIEIR), 2018</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>But 60% don’t work locally</h2>
<p>A key question, then, is whether there are enough jobs in Western Sydney for this growing number of professional and knowledge workers? The answer, clearly, is no. </p>
<p>At the 2016 census only <a href="https://profile.id.com.au/cws/journey-to-work">40.4%</a> of Western Sydney’s knowledge-based business services workers could find jobs in their home region. The remaining 59.6% are <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-the-people-cant-get-to-their-jobs-bring-the-jobs-to-the-people-57567">forced to commute to destinations beyond the region</a> to ply their 21st-century trades.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-city-workers-average-commute-has-blown-out-to-66-minutes-a-day-how-does-yours-compare-120598">Australian city workers' average commute has blown out to 66 minutes a day. How does yours compare?</a>
</strong>
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<hr>
<p>Western Sydney’s dependence on a population-growth economy has limited the growth of jobs for knowledge workers. The region’s strong jobs growth in recent years has come overwhelmingly from two sources. </p>
<p>Construction, especially residential construction, has generated a lot of jobs. </p>
<p>The other source of jobs is the industry sectors that have grown in direct proportion to population growth. These include health care and social assistance, education and training, retailing, and accommodation and food services. The region’s population growth has fuelled growth in these population-serving sectors.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342569/original/file-20200618-94078-zq4uz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342569/original/file-20200618-94078-zq4uz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342569/original/file-20200618-94078-zq4uz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342569/original/file-20200618-94078-zq4uz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342569/original/file-20200618-94078-zq4uz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342569/original/file-20200618-94078-zq4uz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342569/original/file-20200618-94078-zq4uz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342569/original/file-20200618-94078-zq4uz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Centre for Western Sydney</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<h2>Vulnerable in the downturn</h2>
<p>Obviously, this jobs growth has been welcome and is important for the region’s <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-everyday-economy/">day-to-day economy</a>. The problem is that the Western Sydney economy has failed to produce significant job growth in other sectors. This has left the population-driven sectors, including construction, as the main source of growth. </p>
<p>In the construction sector, however, bust follows every boom. The sector <a href="https://www.masterbuilders.com.au/Resources/Industry-Forecasts">entered a significant downturn in 2019</a>. </p>
<p>In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic and recession are likely to rein in Western Sydney’s record population growth rates. This will hit jobs in the population-serving sectors, including further job losses in construction.</p>
<p>So workforce transformation in Western Sydney is running ahead of the economic transformation needed to ensure a supply of suitable jobs in the region. </p>
<p>Western Sydney has grown to become something more than a suburban appendage to the Sydney metropolitan area. Yet its 1 million workers lack the diverse jobs base reasonably expected of a large advanced urban economy. </p>
<p>Little wonder Western Sydney’s reputation as a planning nightmare is growing.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The Centre for Western Sydney has released three reports on Western Sydney’s growing jobs deficit. You can read the reports <a href="https://www.westernsydney.edu.au/cws/policy">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139384/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Phillip O'Neill does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Education fuelled extraordinary growth in Western Sydney’s professional services workforce, but their jobs aren’t local. More than 300,000 commute to work outside the region.Phillip O'Neill, Director, Centre for Western Sydney, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1248952019-10-21T18:59:49Z2019-10-21T18:59:49ZTo bolster our fragile road and rail system we need to add a ‘micro-mobility’ network<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/297601/original/file-20191017-98648-4zwr4e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2761%2C1769&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In cities like Copenhagen that have good infrastructure for cycling it's an established commuting option alongside road and rail.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cyclists_at_red_2.jpg">Heb/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>We all know the feeling. You’re on your way to an important appointment when disaster strikes. A glitch in the transport matrix leaves you <a href="https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-11/sydney-train-delays-after-signal-failure/11592818?pfmredir=sm&sf221276741=1">waiting for a train that never arrives</a>, or in <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sydney-melbourne-coming-to-a-standstill-as-infrastructure-struggles-20190812-p52g9n.html">bumper-to-bumper traffic</a> with little chance of making it to your destination on time. If you are like me, you may wonder: why are our transport systems so fragile, and how could we make them more resilient? </p>
<p>The answer may lie in the infrastructure we provide for the <a href="https://www.cbinsights.com/research/report/micromobility-revolution/">emerging trend of micro-mobility</a> – devices that are small, light and usually electric-powered. Greater investment in a micro-mobility network could improve the reliability of our current transport system, which offers two main networks in road and rail for journeys that are not walkable. This micro-mobility network can be developed by greatly improving the fragmented bicycle networks in our cities. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/banning-tiny-vehicles-would-deny-us-smarter-ways-to-get-around-our-cities-113111">Banning 'tiny vehicles' would deny us smarter ways to get around our cities</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>To understand how this could improve our overall transport system, we must first look at how transport projects are funded and how diversification and redundancy can make up for shortcomings in this process. </p>
<h2>Selecting the best transport projects</h2>
<p>When deciding which projects to build, transport agencies rank projects using a benefit-cost ratio (BCR). This number is the predicted benefits of a project divided by the predicted costs. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, benefit-cost ratios are often <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-we-restore-the-publics-faith-in-transport-planning-73684">misused to suit political motives</a>. They are inherently flawed and uncertain for at least three reasons:</p>
<ol>
<li>modelling often <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-fewer-drivers-are-likely-to-use-westconnex-than-predicted-38286">miscalculates future traffic volumes</a></li>
<li><a href="https://theconversation.com/modelling-for-major-road-projects-is-at-odds-with-driver-behaviour-63603">inaccurate assumptions are used</a> to estimate the dollar value of costs and benefits</li>
<li><a href="https://theconversation.com/a-closer-look-at-business-cases-raises-questions-about-priority-national-infrastructure-projects-94489">many uncertain costs and benefits are simply ignored</a>.<br></li>
</ol>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-we-restore-the-publics-faith-in-transport-planning-73684">How do we restore the public's faith in transport planning?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Reducing investment risk through diversification</h2>
<p>In the financial sector, uncertainty is simply a risk to be managed. This can be done with diversification, which is achieved by bundling different assets into a portfolio. For example, bundling shares from different industries reduces the risk that these “diverse” investments will all suffer losses at the same time.</p>
<p>Similarly, investing in a variety of transport modes is a form of diversification. This makes our transport systems more resilient to long-term changes in the economy, the climate, technology, energy and so on. For example, a transport system that provides alternatives to car travel is resilient to increases in the price of fuel or the cost of emissions.</p>
<p>Transport diversification reduces investment risk, so we are likely to get a more stable return on our transport investment. But diversification alone does not prevent a traffic accident blocking a motorway, or a power outage shutting down a railway line. </p>
<p>To tackle those problems, we should consider approaches the technology sector has been using to manage component failures for decades. It can provide <a href="https://aws.amazon.com/about-aws/whats-new/2019/01/amazon-ecr-announces-99-9--service-level-agreement/">services with 99.9% availability</a>. That would be quite an achievement for the transport network! </p>
<h2>Managing component failure using redundancy</h2>
<p>The technology sector uses redundancy to ensure service is maintained even when one part of the system fails. IT managers keep local and cloud backups so data can be retrieved even if the office burns to the ground. Aircraft designers install multiple flight control systems so the failure of a single system does not cause a crash.</p>
<p>In the transport sector, redundancy is achieved when several modes can be used to make the same journey. While the technology sector can offer redundancy through duplicate systems, providing a duplicate train line “just in case” the first one fails is simply too costly. Instead, we rely on the train network to move people when a road crash halts traffic and we rely on the road network to move people when a train line is closed.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, Australian transport networks do not offer enough capacity or alternatives when one mode is crippled. The predictable result is a fragile transport system with unplanned but not entirely unexpected faults causing frequent delays.</p>
<h2>Tapping into micro-mobility solutions</h2>
<p>A new wave of mobility solutions is on the horizon. Many are described as “micro-mobility”: electric scooters, electric bicycles and automated delivery pods fit this description, as do conventional bicycles. </p>
<p>These devices are perfect for short trips in crowded cities. They are used for individual mobility and micro-freight (such as small packages and takeaway food).</p>
<p>These devices travel faster than pedestrians, so can be <a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-scooters-on-collision-course-with-pedestrians-and-lawmakers-99654">unwanted on footpaths</a>. However, they are slower than motor vehicles, so can be unwanted on roadways. And as people using micro-mobility devices are <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-charts-on-the-rise-in-cycling-injuries-and-deaths-in-australia-116660">not protected from collisions</a>, they are often reluctant to mix with motor vehicle traffic. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/limes-not-lemons-lessons-from-australias-first-e-scooter-sharing-trial-108924">Limes not lemons: lessons from Australia’s first e-scooter sharing trial</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The logical place for micro-mobility devices is on a network that is designed for unprotected humans to travel at around 10-30km/h. In other words, the bicycle network.</p>
<h2>The benefits of a bicycle (or “micro-mobility”) network</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/cutting-cycling-funding-is-economic-non-sense-7547">evidence for investment in bicycle infrastructure is strong</a>. It has the benefits of tackling big challenges including obesity, emissions and traffic congestion. </p>
<p>This article highlights three additional benefits that are not included in traditional benefit-cost ratio analysis:</p>
<ol>
<li>providing a bicycle network increases transport diversification and therefore minimises investment risk</li>
<li>a bicycle network provides redundancy to keep the transport system functioning when other networks fail </li>
<li>bicycle networks support the emerging micro-mobility market.</li>
</ol>
<p>However, investment in bicycle networks in Australia has been miniscule for decades. For example, in 2015-16, <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2018/files/infrastructure-statistics-yearbook-2018-booklet.pdf">A$25.1 billion was invested in roads</a> and <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2018/yearbook_2018.aspx">A$8.7 billion in rail</a>. But only <a href="http://www.bicyclecouncil.com.au/publication/national-cycling-strategy-implementation-report-2016">A$121.8 million was spent on the bicycle network</a> – just 0.36% of transport infrastructure spending, or A$5.27 per capita.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-are-short-changed-when-it-comes-to-transport-funding-in-australia-92574">Cycling and walking are short-changed when it comes to transport funding in Australia</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>The bicycle networks in Australian cities are therefore fragmented and incomplete, as seen below in the map of Sydney.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296141/original/file-20191009-3910-qqlfms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296141/original/file-20191009-3910-qqlfms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296141/original/file-20191009-3910-qqlfms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296141/original/file-20191009-3910-qqlfms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296141/original/file-20191009-3910-qqlfms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296141/original/file-20191009-3910-qqlfms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296141/original/file-20191009-3910-qqlfms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296141/original/file-20191009-3910-qqlfms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sydney bicycle network.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://opendata.transport.nsw.gov.au/dataset/cycleway-data">Author using Transport for NSW data</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Without a functioning bicycle network, the overall transport system is susceptible to investment risk and network failure. We will also be left behind as micro-mobility options proliferate and our transport system becomes less and less fit for purpose.</p>
<p>So let’s build a comprehensive bicycle network fit for scooters, delivery pods, bicycles and more, and let’s do it quick smart.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124895/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Arnold has done work for Transport for NSW and other government agencies through his transport consultancy, Transportology. </span></em></p>A breakdown in the road or rail systems often causes commuter chaos in Australia. Some overseas cities are more resilient because they have other options – and our bicycle network could give us that.Tony Arnold, PhD Candidate, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1205982019-07-29T20:25:32Z2019-07-29T20:25:32ZAustralian city workers’ average commute has blown out to 66 minutes a day. How does yours compare?<p>The average weekly commuting time in Australia has increased considerably since 2002. According to the latest Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) <a href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/hilda/publications/hilda-statistical-reports">Survey released today</a>, workers averaged 3.7 hours’ commuting time per week in 2002, but this had increased to 4.5 hours by 2017. </p>
<p>In 2017, workers in mainland state capitals (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth) had consistently longer commute times than those living elsewhere. These city workers typically spent more than an hour travelling to and from work each day. The average was about 66 minutes. This is a 20% increase from the average of around 55 minutes in 2002. </p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-422" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/422/e916ff5b19c0125d8d290c27d3345fb64edec1e2/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>As in past surveys, Sydney had the longest average daily commutes (71 minutes). In 2017, it was followed by Brisbane (67 minutes), Melbourne (65 minutes), Perth (59 minutes) and Adelaide (56 minutes). Reasons for the increasing commute time vary among different cities but may include increased road congestion, urban expansion and poor public transport services.</p>
<p>Average daily commuting times across Australia also increased from about 49 minutes in 2002 to almost one hour in 2017. </p>
<img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/666/Mean.gif?1564036035" width="100%">
<p>Workers in the Northern Territory had the shortest commutes in 2017, averaging close to 35 minutes per day.</p>
<p>The HILDA analysis covers all workers aged 15 years and older. This includes those with commuting times of zero (that is, who work from home).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285781/original/file-20190726-136744-124z3od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285781/original/file-20190726-136744-124z3od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285781/original/file-20190726-136744-124z3od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285781/original/file-20190726-136744-124z3od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285781/original/file-20190726-136744-124z3od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285781/original/file-20190726-136744-124z3od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285781/original/file-20190726-136744-124z3od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Daily commuting times are calculated by dividing the time spent travelling to and from work in a typical week by the usual number of days worked per week.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Data source: HILDA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The survey, based on interviews with about 17,000 Australians yearly, also reveals that the share of people commuting two or more hours a day is increasing, from 12% in 2002 to 18% in 2017. Men are more likely than women to be long-distance commuters. And middle-aged workers (aged 25-54) are more likely to have long commutes than younger and older workers. </p>
<p>Interestingly, fathers of two children had the highest likelihood (27%) of having long commutes, while mothers with two children were the least likely (less than 13%). On the one hand, households with dependent children are more likely to live in suburban locations for the larger houses, potentially increasing commuting distance for workers in these households. On the other hand, female workers’ relatively lower wage rate and more household responsibilities, such as child rearing, may restrict them to choosing jobs closer to home. </p>
<h2>Impacts on job satisfaction</h2>
<p>According to the HILDA Survey, long-distance commuters (two hours or more a day) are less likely than short-distance commuters (less than one hour) to be satisfied with their working hours, work-life balance and even pay. Therefore, they have lower levels of overall job satisfaction. These long-distance commuters are more likely to quit or lose their jobs within the next year. </p>
<p>These results from the HILDA Survey align well with the findings of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0966692318307269">our research</a>. Our findings suggest longer commutes not only impose physical and mental strains on workers but may also affect their work participation, engagement and productivity. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/walking-and-cycling-to-work-makes-commuters-happier-and-more-productive-117819">Walking and cycling to work makes commuters happier and more productive</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Negative impacts go beyond work</h2>
<p>A growing number of studies have found long-duration commuting can <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856410000960">reduce the time a person has for other activities</a>. These other activities, such as physical exercise, time with family, social activities and so on, are important for psychological well-being. </p>
<p>Lengthy commuting also potentially increases <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9442.2008.00542.x">exposure to nuisances and hazards</a> such as traffic noise, crowds, congestion, pollution and uncomfortably hot or cold conditions. These can cause physical or emotional distress and have a direct influence on people’s physical and mental health. </p>
<h2>What can policymakers do about this?</h2>
<p>A better balance of jobs and housing within a smaller geographic area could help to shorten commuting distances and time. Planning policy such as polycentric cities – with multiple activity centres – have been proposed in Sydney and Melbourne, and could help achieve this.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-close-is-sydney-to-the-vision-of-creating-three-30-minute-cities-115847">How close is Sydney to the vision of creating three 30-minutes cities?</a></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-growing-big-cities-need-new-centres-of-employment-heres-melbournes-chance-93067">Our growing big cities need new centres of employment – here’s Melbourne’s chance</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>Most Australians still rely on their cars for daily commuting. Aside from long travel distance, traffic congestion is another important factor in increasing commuting times. Encouraging alternative travel modes for commuting could potentially relieve congestion. </p>
<p>The HILDA Survey reveals that close to 28% of workers live and work in the same postcode. About 55% of workers live within 10 kilometres of their place of work. This suggests there is huge potential to promote active travel – cycling and walking – for daily commuting trips. Only for a minority (11%) are the postcodes of the home and place of work 30 or more kilometres apart.</p>
<p>High-frequency and reliable rapid public transport networks linking major residential and employment centres could encourage more medium and long-distance commuters to use public transport for daily commuting. </p>
<p>Finally, emerging transport technology, such as autonomous vehicles, is also promising to curb traffic congestion and reduce the “perceived” commuting time, if these vehicles are shared rather than owned by individuals. </p>
<p>Companies also have a role to play in helping to reduce commuting times and their impact on workers’ well-being. Flexible working times, which allow employees to avoid peak-hour travel, and a supportive company culture for working from home can help reduce weekly commuting time. In return, companies potentially benefit from improving employee job satisfaction and retention rates. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-a-reason-youre-feeling-no-better-off-than-10-years-ago-heres-what-hilda-says-about-well-being-121098">There's a reason you're feeling no better off than 10 years ago. Here's what HILDA says about well-being</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><em>One of the authors, Runing Ye, is available today for a Q+A on this topic from 3pm-4pm AEST. Please post your questions in the comments below.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/120598/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Average commuting times for Australians have increased by 23% in 15 years. And those with long commutes are less satisfied with their work, working hours, work-life balance and even pay.Runing Ye, Research Fellow, Melbourne School of Design, The University of MelbourneLiang Ma, Vice-Chancellor's Postdoctoral Research Fellow, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1152222019-05-02T20:14:37Z2019-05-02T20:14:37ZHow to increase train use by up to 35% with one simple trick<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268516/original/file-20190410-2924-6u0kpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pedestrians walking along Bridge Street to Erskineville station in Sydney could take advantage of an extra southern entrance, as could many people now choosing not to catch the train.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://twitter.com/multimodalism/status/1103401167244017665">Chris Standen, used with permission</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Train riders have to get to stations somehow. This is often referred to as the “first mile” or “last mile” problem. There are many technical solutions to help travellers get from home to the station and back, ranging from cars to electronic scooters, but most people use a much older technology, their feet, to get from A to B. What is seldom considered is access to the train platform itself. </p>
<p>Stations are not points but places. They occupy a large area. A person walking at average speed takes about two minutes to walk from one end of a full-length eight-car train to the other. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/500m-for-station-car-parks-other-transport-solutions-could-do-much-more-for-the-money-114908">$500m for station car parks? Other transport solutions could do much more for the money</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Often platforms have a single access point on one side of the station, which makes it more difficult for people on the other side of the station to get to the platform. Passengers may need to almost circumnavigate the station to get to the platform. At an average walking speed, the extra distance they must backtrack adds up to six minutes per trip each way, <a href="http://hdl.handle.net/2123/20286">our research</a> has found. </p>
<p>Imagine being so unlucky to have an extra 12 minutes of travel time every day if you take the train. You might be tempted to drive instead.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271648/original/file-20190430-194623-13icbq0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271648/original/file-20190430-194623-13icbq0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271648/original/file-20190430-194623-13icbq0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271648/original/file-20190430-194623-13icbq0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271648/original/file-20190430-194623-13icbq0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271648/original/file-20190430-194623-13icbq0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271648/original/file-20190430-194623-13icbq0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271648/original/file-20190430-194623-13icbq0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In a worst-case scenario, traveller lives west of the station with an east platform and works east of a station with a west platform, adding six minutes of travel each way, 12 minutes per day.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The table below shows the extra travel time in minutes depending on platform locations and access points for a traveller’s origin and destination. The average time for such a one-sided configuration of train stations is 3.25 minutes each way.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271671/original/file-20190430-194616-1d5h24k.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271671/original/file-20190430-194616-1d5h24k.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271671/original/file-20190430-194616-1d5h24k.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271671/original/file-20190430-194616-1d5h24k.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271671/original/file-20190430-194616-1d5h24k.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271671/original/file-20190430-194616-1d5h24k.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271671/original/file-20190430-194616-1d5h24k.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271671/original/file-20190430-194616-1d5h24k.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Travel times in minutes depending on access to platforms at stations used to get to work and home.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While this example is hypothetical, it is drawn from experience in Sydney, where 44 of 178 train stations have only a single side entrance.</p>
<h2>So what impact will a second entrance have?</h2>
<p>We examined those stations and access to their platforms: how many people lived within 5, 10 and 15 minutes of the station platform, considering actual entrance location, and how many jobs were within 5, 10 and 15 minutes of the platform. Using existing ridership data from Opal cards, we estimated a model that related the passenger entry and exit flows at each station to that station’s accessibility.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271654/original/file-20190430-194620-1mn9wyq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271654/original/file-20190430-194620-1mn9wyq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271654/original/file-20190430-194620-1mn9wyq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271654/original/file-20190430-194620-1mn9wyq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271654/original/file-20190430-194620-1mn9wyq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271654/original/file-20190430-194620-1mn9wyq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271654/original/file-20190430-194620-1mn9wyq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271654/original/file-20190430-194620-1mn9wyq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Accessibility at train stations across Sydney.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We sketched a second entrance at those 44 stations and measured accessibility again. It’s now higher, as having two entrances instead of one means more people can reach the platform in the same time. We then estimated the increase in ridership from the model due to the improved accessibility, assuming no change in population or employment. </p>
<p>Over all 44 stations, total morning peak period entries increased by 5%. But some stations benefit a lot, and others not at all, so prioritisation of investments matters. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/which-lines-are-priorities-for-sydney-metro-conversion-hint-its-not-bankstown-111844">Which lines are priorities for Sydney Metro conversion? Hint: it's not Bankstown</a>
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<hr>
<p>It will be no surprise to locals that Erskineville station comes out on top with a nearly 35% increase. While many of the new apartment-dwelling residents west of the station make the extra hike every day, even more would catch the train if there were a convenient entrance. </p>
<p>Other top 10 stations include: Bankstown, Newtown, Villawood, Redfern, Burwood, Sydneham, Caringbah, Meadowbank and Penshurst. Planning is already under way to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/redfern-station-on-track-for-new-lifts-as-part-of-100m-upgrade-20190226-p510ba.html">improve Redfern station</a>.</p>
<p>While this result considers existing development, adding a second entrance can make new transit-oriented development that much more valuable. This is because it will likely increase activity on the previously less accessible side of the station, as the example of Erskineville shows below.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271652/original/file-20190430-194612-17wxfzk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271652/original/file-20190430-194612-17wxfzk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271652/original/file-20190430-194612-17wxfzk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271652/original/file-20190430-194612-17wxfzk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271652/original/file-20190430-194612-17wxfzk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271652/original/file-20190430-194612-17wxfzk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271652/original/file-20190430-194612-17wxfzk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271652/original/file-20190430-194612-17wxfzk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/make-housing-affordable-and-cut-road-congestion-all-at-once-heres-a-way-71071">Make housing affordable and cut road congestion all at once? Here's a way</a>
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<hr>
<p>Other considerations include accessibility for people who cannot use staircases, as many of the stations are older and will require lifts. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/500m-for-station-car-parks-other-transport-solutions-could-do-much-more-for-the-money-114908">prospects of park-and-ride lots</a>, the costs of construction, the presence of nearby stations, and site feasibility also play into final decisions.</p>
<p>Our formal findings and detailed methods are written up in this report: <a href="http://hdl.handle.net/2123/20286">Catchment if you can: The effect of station entrance and exit locations on accessibility</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115222/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In Sydney, 44 of 178 train stations have a single side entrance. It adds up to 12 minutes of daily travel time for people walking the long way to their platform. It’s enough to make some drive instead.David Levinson, Professor of Transport, University of SydneyBahman Lahoorpoor, PhD Candidate, School of Civil Engineering, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1149082019-04-07T19:53:48Z2019-04-07T19:53:48Z$500m for station car parks? Other transport solutions could do much more for the money<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267722/original/file-20190404-123410-18kfp21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">With more than a million Australians using public transport to get to work each day, demand for car parking at the station is virtually insatiable.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/philipmallis/46402974731/in/photolist-23RbPF2-Gjsh88-2ekmTqK-bEfVA-EDLrAJ-TgfpQc-M5wkF7-HQRQVf-2aX7ext-23zY5e1-PZ8Qfk-RCDnAd-24Lw2wt-RqYRZD-2dUEmhR-Ng589h-2bQ5kHc-RVZuuK-PWm1gP-SA6aE7-2eWmyh4-P6mmSo-D5GjN-dgxvHq-aF3Lb6-bpCRM-KH53p-259W8Ku-aF7wpU-aF7Ah5-4a9Rot-dpDGsV-cwBpZw-9hKnjZ-5sb8ah-91JveF-GLEnUQ-v74pZ4-uadf16-HaSga7-r8ztRk-6Yj2WA-28mpmu2-HTJjNL-23nR3sx-2dGtnJt-BSC48H-RyFCw3-TdcKuw-23NSTS4">Philip Mallis/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Half a billion dollars sounds like a lot of money, but that really depends on what you’re spending it on. In Tuesday’s federal budget, the Coalition government announced its <a href="https://theconversation.com/tax-giveaways-in-frydenbergs-back-in-the-black-budget-114177">Commuter Car Park Fund</a>, a A$500 million, ten-year package intended to make it easier for people in the suburbs and regions to drive to their local railway station. </p>
<p>While this is a drop in the ocean compared with the wider transport infrastructure budget, we’re going to use it here as a starting point to run some thought experiments to see if this is the best way to spend our taxes to help people get around. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/congestion-busting-infrastructure-plays-catch-up-on-long-neglected-needs-114598">Congestion-busting infrastructure plays catch-up on long-neglected needs</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How much car parking could we buy for $500 million?</h2>
<p>The construction cost for a single parking spot can range from <a href="https://www.ptua.org.au/myths/parkride/">A$10,000 for a surface car park to A$68,000 per space in multi-level structures</a>. So, if all the money is spent on surface car parks, the new fund could build 50,000 spaces at railway stations around Australia. </p>
<p>Of course, not all of these spots are going to be in surface parking lots – some will need to be in multi-level parking garages. So, if we built one multi-level space for every five at ground level, the A$500 million earmarked in the budget would buy us 30,000 parking spaces.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/budget-transport-spending-is-about-par-for-the-course-but-the-pattern-is-unusual-114597">Budget transport spending is about par for the course, but the pattern is unusual</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Does increased parking increase transit usage?</h2>
<p>If these 30,000 park-and-ride spaces at train stations are built, this is unlikely to lead to an increase in transit patronage. It could even <a href="https://humantransit.org/2014/10/basics-the-math-of-park-and-ride.html">run counter to providing good public transport</a>.</p>
<p>On the day of the 2016 Census, <a href="https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/036">1,225,668 people used public transport to get to work</a>. <a href="https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/036">Generously assuming</a> that <a href="https://chartingtransport.com/tag/car-occupancy/">a single car has an average of 1.5 passengers</a>, the Commuter Car Park Fund might enable only 45,000 extra people to access the public transport network. That’s a tiny 4% of the current number of people who travel to work by public transport. </p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2013/03/how-park-and-ride-encourages-car-use/5034/">studies</a> show that only a small proportion of park-and-riders had previously commuted by car all the way to their destination. Many are existing passengers who used to walk, cycle, bus or drive to a different station but are now opting to drive to the station with new parking places. Non-commuters working or shopping in nearby activity centres also often use park-and-ride spaces. </p>
<p>There are at least 705 train stations in metropolitan Australia, and it is not clear from the budget papers where these extra parking spaces are going to be placed. Sydney has <a href="https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/media/documents/2017/Train%20Statistics%202014.pdf">176 train stations</a>, Melbourne has 218, Southeast Queensland has 152, Adelaide has 89, and Perth has 70. Even assuming only 300 stations will need extra parking, that provides an average of only 100 new spaces per station.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/this-is-how-regional-rail-can-help-ease-our-big-cities-commuter-crush-81902">This is how regional rail can help ease our big cities' commuter crush</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>More bang for your buck</h2>
<p>There are cheaper ways to move an extra 45,000 people a day to and from railway stations and around our cities. </p>
<p>Linking a major university campus with a Skytrain station, Vancouver’s 99 B-Line bus service moves <a href="https://public.tableau.com/profile/translink#!/vizhome/2017TSPR-BusSummary/TheWorkbook">56,000 passengers a day</a> at a cost of less than C$14 million ($A14.7 million) a year. </p>
<p>Similarly, in Toronto, the Finch West bus service carries <a href="https://www.ttc.ca/Customer_Service/Corporate_Plan/Appendices/Key_facts_and_figures/index.jsp">44,000 passengers a day</a> to and from the subway. The Toronto urban transit network moves <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/8bd3-TTC-2018-Op-Budget-Notes-V1.pdf">more than a million people a day with an annual operating subsidy of C$713 million</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267740/original/file-20190405-123431-1f0fvg4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267740/original/file-20190405-123431-1f0fvg4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267740/original/file-20190405-123431-1f0fvg4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267740/original/file-20190405-123431-1f0fvg4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267740/original/file-20190405-123431-1f0fvg4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267740/original/file-20190405-123431-1f0fvg4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267740/original/file-20190405-123431-1f0fvg4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Passengers transferring from the Metro to a feeder bus in suburban Montreal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Iain Lawrie/University of Melbourne</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Each of these cities has comparable urban landscapes to suburban Australia, but is able to offer buses to nearby stations every five minutes. </p>
<p>We understand that these costs are not necessarily directly comparable. We provide them though as a point to think about, and so you might begin to ask how our cities could be better configured.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-forget-buses-six-rules-for-improving-city-bus-services-94984">Don't forget buses: six rules for improving city bus services</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<h2>Better land use around train stations?</h2>
<p>Alternatives like direct and frequent buses <a href="https://theconversation.com/freeing-up-the-huge-areas-set-aside-for-parking-can-transform-our-cities-85331">could liberate space around our suburban train stations</a>. Around the world, stations are community hubs, and even simple stations can be wonderful, vibrant places for people. The best ones are a pleasure to move through and spend time in, unencumbered by the conflict and noise of space dominated by car traffic.</p>
<p>Building car parks wastes that place potential. Instead, it bakes in the mobility habits and planning prejudices that condemn our public places to being grey deserts, difficult to move through, and keeping out parks, shops, gardens, street life, walkability and human interaction.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267750/original/file-20190405-114908-1qfn7cz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267750/original/file-20190405-114908-1qfn7cz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267750/original/file-20190405-114908-1qfn7cz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267750/original/file-20190405-114908-1qfn7cz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267750/original/file-20190405-114908-1qfn7cz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267750/original/file-20190405-114908-1qfn7cz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267750/original/file-20190405-114908-1qfn7cz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Unsealed car parking at Tarneit station in Melbourne’s western suburbs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Paul Fleckney/University of Melbourne</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/freeing-up-the-huge-areas-set-aside-for-parking-can-transform-our-cities-85331">Freeing up the huge areas set aside for parking can transform our cities</a>
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<hr>
<p>Underpinning the futility of the Commuter Car Park Fund is the fact that “demand” for free parking is fundamentally insatiable. Just like urban road space, building more of the wrong infrastructure simply <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.3141/2543-19">induces more use and perpetuates congestion</a>.</p>
<p>Parking policy scholars and practitioners have known for decades now that parking demand can be successfully managed, <a href="https://www.foreground.com.au/planning/car-parking-choking-cities/">including via pricing existing parking supply and improving transport alternatives</a>. Pricing and related policies serve as an effective disincentive to people who don’t need to be driving (and parking), freeing up road space for those who do. </p>
<p>Urban congestion is a problem of the quality and connectivity of our public transport network, not just a parking and road space issue. We have long known the policies and mechanisms to shift higher proportions of people to alternatives (and improve conditions for those who need to drive). We still need the funding and the planning capacity to achieve it.</p>
<p>Australia deserves better transport policy and a clearer, better-informed discussion about how its transport funds are being spent.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-elephant-in-the-planning-scheme-how-cities-still-work-around-the-dominance-of-parking-space-87098">The elephant in the planning scheme: how cities still work around the dominance of parking space</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114908/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nathan Pittman received funding from the Endeavour Research Fellowships program.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Crystal Legacy has received funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Stone has received funding from the Australian Research Council, the Victorian Government and Melbourne City Council for research and advice on urban transport issues </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca Clements receives an Australian Postgraduate Award from the Australian Government. </span></em></p>The Commuter Car Park Fund announced in the budget sounds big, but is likely to create only around 30,000 extra spaces – a marginal benefit for Australia’s 1.2 million daily public transport users.Nathan Pittman, PhD Candidate in Transportation Planning, The University of MelbourneCrystal Legacy, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, The University of MelbourneJohn Stone, Senior Lecturer in Transport Planning, The University of MelbourneRebecca Clements, PhD Candidate, Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1146822019-04-02T10:42:04Z2019-04-02T10:42:04ZNew York gets serious about traffic with the first citywide US congestion pricing plan<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266893/original/file-20190401-177167-nxno5w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Traffic flows into Manhattan from Brooklyn over the Williamsburg Bridge. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Manhattan-Tolls/831c1ae9c35b48d9b0a3a5a8137b70a8/3/0">AP Photo/Mary Altaffer</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After years of debate, New York state has adopted <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/26/nyregion/what-is-congestion-pricing.html">congestion pricing</a> to deal with traffic problems in New York City. Starting in 2021, fees will be imposed on all vehicles entering a pricing zone that covers lower Manhattan, from 60th Street at the southern edge of Central Park to the southernmost tip of the island. </p>
<p>This approach has succeeded in cities including London, Singapore and Stockholm. For scholars like me who <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=oMPNYhQAAAAJ&hl=en">focus on urban issues</a>, New York’s decision is welcome news. Properly used, congestion pricing can make crowded cities safer, cleaner and easier for drivers, cyclists and pedestrians to navigate.</p>
<p>The details matter, including the size and timing of charges and the area that they cover. Congestion charges also raises equity issues, since rich people are best able to move closer to work or change their schedules to avoid the steepest costs.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266903/original/file-20190401-177181-1ut7g3m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266903/original/file-20190401-177181-1ut7g3m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266903/original/file-20190401-177181-1ut7g3m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=711&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266903/original/file-20190401-177181-1ut7g3m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=711&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266903/original/file-20190401-177181-1ut7g3m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=711&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266903/original/file-20190401-177181-1ut7g3m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=894&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266903/original/file-20190401-177181-1ut7g3m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=894&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266903/original/file-20190401-177181-1ut7g3m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=894&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The proposed New York City congestion pricing zone.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://nyc.streetsblog.org/2018/01/19/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-congestion-pricing-plan-from-cuomos-fix-nyc-panel/">Fix NYC via Streetsblog</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The downside of density</h2>
<p>Cities concentrate people close together for good economic reasons. Clustering activities allows transfers of information, knowledge and skills. At their best, cities create deep pools of labor and large markets of consumers, and make it possible to provide public goods such as mass transit and trash collection efficiently. Planners should be encouraging cities to <a href="https://theconversation.com/want-the-economy-to-grow-its-time-to-look-at-cities-and-efficiency-54517">become bigger and more dense</a> if we want to improve economic performance.</p>
<p>But growing concentration also imposes costs, and one of the largest is traffic congestion. Drivers spend valuable time sitting idly in traffic jams, while <a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-noise-pollution-is-worst-in-poor-and-minority-neighborhoods-and-segregated-cities-81888">noise</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-us-cities-are-becoming-more-dangerous-for-cyclists-and-pedestrians-111713">accidents</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-air-pollution-making-you-sick-4-questions-answered-91605">pollution</a> impose heavy burdens on city residents. </p>
<h2>Should road use be free?</h2>
<p>The idea of charging for use of public roads is not new. Economist Arthur Pigou discussed the issue <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Economics-Welfare-Classics-Economics/dp/0765807394/ref=sr_1_4?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1517221260&sr=1-4&keywords=Arthur+Pigou">as early as 1920</a> as part of his attempt to remedy the suboptimal workings of the market system. In 1963 Canadian-born economist William Vickrey argued that roads were scarce resources that should be valued by <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/1823886?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">imposing costs on users</a>. </p>
<p>Consumers intuitively understand differential pricing. We expect to pay more for airline tickets at peak travel times and for hotel rooms at popular times of the year. Congestion pricing also forces users to think about the cost of making a trip, and thus to evaluate their travel patterns.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/0iKFgEPOk20?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A cyclist’s perspective on traffic in lower Manhattan, filmed in 2018.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And it can be effective. A 2008 <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/wide-use-of-tolls-could-unclog-roads-seattle-study-says/">study</a> gave drivers in Seattle a hypothetical cash sum to spend on trips, charged them tolls linked to traffic congestion levels, and let them keep money they did not spend. Their cars were fitted with equipment to monitor driving patterns. </p>
<p>The results: Travelers altered their schedules, took different routes or collapsed multiple trips into single journeys. Collectively, these changes reduced congestion at peak time, lessened wait times and increased average travel speeds in the study’s regional traffic model.</p>
<h2>Success in Europe and Asia</h2>
<p>Evidence from cities around the world shows that charging motorists fees for driving into city centers during busy periods is a rarity in urban public policy: a measure that works and is cost-effective. Congestion pricing has succeeded in cities including <a href="https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/fhwahop08047/02summ.htm">London, Singapore and Stockholm</a>, where it has eased traffic, sped up travel times, reduced pollution and provided funds for public transport and infrastructure investments. </p>
<p>It also can produce some <a href="http://www.ires.nus.edu.sg/workingpapers/IRES2016-013.pdf">unintended consequences</a>. In London, house prices within the congestion charge zone increased – bid upward by consumers who were willing to pay to avoid traffic and enjoy improved environmental conditions. Over the long term, the congestion tax lubricated the gentrification of central London. </p>
<p>But this process is common to many other big cities, with or without congestion pricing: The rich preempt central city locations and <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Unequal-City-Resurgence-Displacement-Inequality/dp/1138280372/ref=asap_bc?ie=UTF8">displace the less wealthy to the suburbs</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204945/original/file-20180205-14064-l53kcc.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204945/original/file-20180205-14064-l53kcc.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204945/original/file-20180205-14064-l53kcc.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204945/original/file-20180205-14064-l53kcc.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204945/original/file-20180205-14064-l53kcc.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204945/original/file-20180205-14064-l53kcc.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204945/original/file-20180205-14064-l53kcc.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204945/original/file-20180205-14064-l53kcc.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">London’s Congestion Charge zone.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://tfl.gov.uk/modes/driving/congestion-charge/congestion-charge-zone">Transport for London</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Congestion pricing in the United States</h2>
<p>Although the United States has <a href="https://www.ibtta.org/sites/default/files/documents/MAF/2014_TollingBrief_0.pdf">over 5,000 miles of toll roads</a>, congestion pricing is uncommon. One exception is Interstate Route 66 in the Washington, D.C. metro region, where <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-40-toll-for-a-10-mile-trip-this-is-the-new-infrastructure-math-2017-12-07">fluctuating tolls</a> were introduced in late 2017. Pricing for express lanes changes every six minutes during rush hour eastbound in the morning and westbound in the afternoon. The toll hit US$40 for a 10-mile stretch the day after it was introduced. </p>
<p>So far, local officials say the policy <a href="https://wtop.com/dc-transit/2019/01/average-i-66-price-speeds-from-first-year-of-tolls-and-extended-hov-hours/">appears to be working</a>. Carpooling has increased, while backups and crashes have declined. The average toll is currently $8.02 during morning hours and $4.47 during afternoon hours.</p>
<p>But this is just one well-used road, and there are many other routes into central Washington. The I-66 tolls are more about generating revenue on one road than reducing congestion citywide. </p>
<p>New York City is the best U.S. candidate for congestion pricing because it is densely developed and has an extensive public transportation system. Congestion pricing is unlikely to be as feasible in lower-density cities with limited public transportation.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1111736359138615296"}"></div></p>
<p>Some observers, such as environmental advocates, are <a href="https://www.edf.org/media/new-york-makes-history-congestion-pricing">celebrating New York’s decision</a>. But there is pushback from others who claim that it <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/27/nyregion/newyorktoday/nyc-news-congestion-pricing.html">will be regressive</a>. Congestion charges do raise equity issues, but only 4 percent of people who commute into New York City travel by car, and of those, only 5,000 could be classified as <a href="http://fortune.com/2018/01/25/nyc-congestion-fees/">working poor</a>. Funding from congestion fees will increase investment in mass transit, which <a href="https://www.lohud.com/story/news/transit/2019/02/08/cuomo-mta-congestion-pricing-plan/2594681002/">New York Governor Andrew Cuomo says</a> will benefit the vast majority of New Yorkers who commute by bus or subway. </p>
<p>Details remain to be decided, but under a <a href="http://www.hntb.com/HNTB/media/HNTBMediaLibrary/Home/Fix-NYC-Panel-Report.pdf">previous proposal</a>, cars would have been charged $11.52 to enter the zone on weekdays during business hours, while trucks would have paid $25.34. Taxis and app-based rides such as Uber and Lyft would have been charged $2 to $5. Fees will be assessed by a committee of experts and collected by the Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority through an electronic tolling system that is already widely used for bridges, tunnels and tolled motorways across the country. </p>
<p>Unlike other taxes that can be easily dismissed as imposing costs and killing jobs, congestion pricing improves market efficiencies because it forces people to think about their travel and leads to a more rational use of our public roads. It is a powerful policy whose time has definitely come. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-traffic-clogged-us-cities-ready-for-congestion-pricing-90814">article</a> originally published on Feb. 7, 2018.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114682/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Rennie Short does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Starting in 2021, drivers will pay a fee to enter midtown and lower Manhattan during busy times of day. Will this clear New York’s air and streets?John Rennie Short, Professor, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1122872019-03-13T10:40:53Z2019-03-13T10:40:53ZEscalator etiquette: Should I stand or walk for an efficient ride?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/262761/original/file-20190307-82695-1kxrp7h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=21%2C1120%2C2365%2C1485&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The science of getting quickly and safely to the bottom.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/HrBNsh-wzN8">Ryan Tang/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Love them or hate them, traffic laws exist to keep people safe and to help vehicles flow smoothly. And while they aren’t legally enforceable, pedestrian traffic also tends to follow its own set of unwritten rules.</p>
<p>Most pedestrians use walking etiquette as a way to minimize discomfort – “Oops! Sorry to bump you!” – and to improve efficiency – “I want to get there faster!”</p>
<p>Without even thinking about it, you probably abide by the common pedestrian traffic rule that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1068/b2697">faster walkers should move to the inside</a> of a path while slower walkers gravitate to the outside. In the United States, this aligns with street traffic rules, where vehicles pass on the left, while slower vehicles stay in the right lane of the road.</p>
<p>This approach to passing leads to the formation of pedestrian lanes of traffic. While they’re not painted on sidewalks like they are on roadways, these functional lanes can help pedestrians move more comfortably and quickly. <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=WKpzzVUAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Human systems engineers like me</a> know that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cie.2010.07.030">pedestrian lanes emerge naturally</a> in crowded environments.</p>
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<span class="caption">Is this the best advice?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/barneymoss/22780643773">Barney Moss</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Within the built environment, designers have used different techniques to encourage particular pedestrian traffic patterns. One example is signs that encourage pedestrians to “stand to the right” on escalators. Riders will use the right half of the step if they are standing and the left half if they’re walking (or running!) to reach the end of the escalator.</p>
<p>But do two lanes of pedestrian traffic on an escalator actually help you reach your destination more quickly? Should there be a walking lane and a standing lane, or should both lanes be used for standing only? One study reported that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-02447-9_32">74.9 percent of pedestrians choose to stand</a> on the escalator instead of walking. Should an entire lane of the escalator be left open for a small, impatient proportion of the crowd?</p>
<p>When designers plan spaces such as roads, buildings and corridors, they consider the space needed for each person in the environment. The space needed changes depending on how the space will be used. For a pedestrian, the “buffer zone” describes how much <a href="https://trid.trb.org/view/114653">space a person needs to feel comfortable</a>, and varies by activity. Someone standing needs, on average, a little over three square feet (0.3m²) of space, whereas a <a href="https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/research/safety/pedbike/98107/section2.cfm">walking pedestrian needs more than eight square feet</a> (0.75m²). That means a constrained space such as an escalator can comfortably hold more than twice the number of standing pedestrians as walking pedestrians.</p>
<p>In London, planners reaped <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jan/16/the-tube-at-a-standstill-why-tfl-stopped-people-walking-up-the-escalators">a 27 percent increase in the hourly capacity</a> by switching to a “standing only” policy on a typically congested escalator at a subway station. No walking was allowed on the crammed escalator, which allowed more people to move through the station in the same amount of time as before. A highly efficient escalator is one that has the most output – that is, carries the most people to the destination.</p>
<p>But the change was contentious. Social convention in transport has often favored the individual traveler. For example, allowing people to walk up the left does allow some individuals to move faster, even though it reduces the capacity of the escalator and slows down the overall travel time for others. While using one of the escalator lanes for walking can help the walking pedestrian exit more quickly, walkers’ varied speeds relative to the rest of the traffic hinders overall efficiency. To improve the overall system, the system-level efficiency is what should be considered.</p>
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<figcaption>
<span class="caption">City walkers become adept at going with the flow.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/kevdia/16854049593">Kevin Case/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>Engineers consider a lot of pedestrians in one area a high-density crowd. In these situations, pedestrians tend to walk much slower than when in a low-density or open space. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cie.2010.07.030">This slower pace is caused</a> by both a lack of space, as well as the need for each pedestrian to make more decisions – should I speed up? Slow down? Pass this person? Just wait? The overwhelming number of small decisions can lead to pedestrians behaving like those around them. This literally go-with-the-flow mentality makes walking less mentally fatiguing.</p>
<p>So when people approach an escalator, they’ll often just do what the person immediately ahead of them is doing. If the person in front of them walks, they walk. If the person in front of them stands, they stand. All it takes is someone to start the trend.</p>
<p>Stand on both sides of the escalator. The others will follow. Counterintuitive as it may seem, this one change will help everyone get to the destination faster, especially when things are crowded.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lesley Strawderman receives funding from a variety of organizations, including the National Science Foundation, the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health, and the US Department of Transportation. </span></em></p>In many cities, convention holds that there’s a lane for walking and a lane for standing on the escalator. But human systems engineers suggest this isn’t the most efficient option for the system.Lesley Strawderman, Professor of Industrial & Systems Engineering, Mississippi State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1036952018-11-15T14:11:03Z2018-11-15T14:11:03ZAir taxis – why they’re no longer pie in the sky<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244829/original/file-20181109-34102-l3v85.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Mangurenje</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine a taxi service that picked you up (into the sky) and then dropped you off after an exciting journey, completely free of road works and traffic lights. It has <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/09/09/britains-first-air-taxis-will-picking-passengers-within-four/">been claimed</a> that air taxis could be flying us through the air in just a few years’ time – and it’s true that some big companies are speeding ahead with the idea. </p>
<p>Why? Well, to start with, we simply need to find better ways of moving around. By the year 2050, <a href="https://population.un.org/wup/Maps/">it is estimated</a> that around 68% of the world’s population will live in cities (compared with today’s proportion of 55%). </p>
<p>This increase, combined with population growth, could add another 2.5 billion people to urban populations in the next few decades – leading to ever increasing urban traffic congestion across the globe. </p>
<p>In London (currently the most congested city in Europe), drivers spend <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-42917201">on average over 72 hours</a> – three whole days – in traffic congestion per year. The need for energy and transport solutions with minimal environmental cost is only going to increase. </p>
<p>Commuters will want ever more choice and more flexibility in their modes of transport – hence the interest in using the third dimension of airspace.</p>
<p>There are now over 120 concept Electric Vertical Take Off and Landing (EVTOL) vehicles and prototypes being tested across the globe. They range from scaled up drones, to electric and hybrid multi-rotor machines with or without wings. </p>
<p>Companies such as Uber (with expected gross revenues in the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2018/02/22/breaking-down-ubers-valuation-an-interactive-analysis/#3047e0f74785">region of US$50 billion</a>) are investing heavily in the sector. Boeing has acquired technology firm Aurora Flight Sciences to accelerate entry into the market. Airbus has three different projects on the go.</p>
<h2>Flight of fancy</h2>
<p>Previous attempts at building the flying cars of science fiction have failed to live up to expectations. So what’s changed? In short, the electrification of cars has led to the creation of very high energy density batteries and much improved electric motor efficiency. </p>
<p>The availability of new lightweight and robust materials (such as carbon fibre) mean higher power to weight ratios. And the use of 3D printing means that complex parts can now be printed in plastics and metals. </p>
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<p>Drone technology and lessons learned from autonomous vehicles – like <a href="https://theconversation.com/meet-lidar-the-amazing-laser-technology-thats-helping-archaeologists-discover-lost-cities-60915">Lidar</a>, short for “light detection and ranging” – can also be adopted, while the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-the-internet-of-things-16542">internet of things</a> may finally mean that connected, seamless travel is indeed possible.</p>
<p>Companies like Rolls Royce are teaming up with industry and academia to provide workable, practical solutions. And although many of the 120 or so concept vehicles exist only on computers for the time being, a select few have built scale and full-size prototype “proof of concept” vehicles. Some are simply “learning by doing” – the very same approach adopted by Orville and Wilbur Wright in the pioneering days of flight.</p>
<h2>Reach for the skies</h2>
<p>As a service provider, Uber clearly sees air taxis as an extension of mobility options. Customers might expect to use a smart phone app similar to the ones currently in operation, but with the option to choose whether to be driven or flown to their destination. </p>
<p>But no matter how high these companies aim to travel, there are still barriers left to overcome. Air taxis would mean busier skies and higher air traffic concentration. Regulators will want to see stringent target levels for safety and security. </p>
<p>Simplicity of design will also be key. Battery technologies are improving but have some way to go to meet range requirements for even short urban trips. Automation is seen as a way to make operations safer but it is likely that early vehicles would need human pilots before moving to driverless air taxis in the future. Customer comfort and safety issues will have to be addressed, as will consumer confidence in using this kind of travel technology. </p>
<p>On top of all this, noise and emissions within an urban area must be minimised and vehicles will need to be able to operate in adverse weather. The cost of these vehicles will need to be affordable and this can only be achieved through large scale production. </p>
<p>There is already a shortage of commercial pilots, so new thinking will be required as to who will operate these machines. Seamless transport integration will require conveniently located “Skyports” and these will place increased demand on electricity supplies. </p>
<p>Without integrated air traffic management for air taxis, safety may be compromised. The technology on its own is not the answer, and the concept is unlikely to succeed without a wider view of the business model and operating environment. Joined up thinking will be needed. These future vehicles will not only need to overcome technological but also societal challenges.</p>
<p>Despite all that, unmanned and tethered flights for selected concept vehicles have already taken place, and it is likely that in the next two to five years we will see piloted demonstrations. Within the next five to ten years, we could see limited commercial operations in niche market sectors – but collaboration and joined up thinking will be paramount.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103695/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Bromfield does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Huge progress has been made, but safety issues and environmental concerns mean plans are still up in the air.Mike Bromfield, Senior Lecturer in Aerospace Engineering, Coventry UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/988972018-07-01T08:38:05Z2018-07-01T08:38:05ZThe long and short of South African school commutes: a case study<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/225336/original/file-20180628-117371-o9vrdo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Children across the Gauteng often walk long distances to school and back.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sarah Wiseman/Flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Education enables social mobility. This is particularly true in a context of high inequality and high unemployment, such as <a href="http://resep.sun.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/2372-Resep_PSPPD_A-society-divided_WEB.pdf">South Africa</a>. This is one reason why some parents choose to send their children to schools further away from home - often at considerable <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/292355769_School_choice_school_costs_The_case_of_inner_city_Johannesburg_private_schools">financial and social costs</a>. </p>
<p>Research about <a href="https://books.google.co.za/books/about/Young_People_s_Daily_Mobilities_in_Sub_S.html?id=pJ-YDQAAQBAJ&redir_esc=y">pupils’ commutes</a> in Africa is still limited. But we do know that the journeys young people make to urban schools on the continent – and <a href="https://nypost.com/2013/03/04/queens-teen-has-worst-school-commute-time-in-the-world/">elsewhere in the world</a> – can be quite long and complicated. </p>
<p>In research we’re doing at the <a href="http://www.gcro.ac.za">Gauteng City-Region Observatory</a>, which works with data to inform policy, we’re working to understand pupils’ daily commutes in Gauteng, South Africa’s most populated province. Apartheid’s legacy entrenched inequality in the geography of Gauteng, meaning that poorer families typically live further from high-performing schools. </p>
<p>Using 2016 data from the Gauteng Department of Education, we mapped the percentage of pupils at each public school (primary and secondary) in Gauteng who travel more than 5 kilometres to their school. <a href="http://gcro.ac.za/outputs/map-of-the-month/detail/the-long-and-short-of-school-commutes/">We found</a> that pupils’ commutes were highly variable across schools. </p>
<p>Among our findings were that over a third of pupils still travel more than 5 kilometres to school. And the province’s peripheral areas have the highest percentage of children per school who are travelling long distances.</p>
<h2>Unpacking key findings</h2>
<p>Gauteng has an <a href="https://hsf.org.za/publications/hsf-briefs/learner-entry-into-gauteng-public-schools-i-school-application-procedures">admissions policy</a> which demarcates a default feeder zone of a 5 km radius around each school. The policy, which is currently being reworked and reviewed, prioritises pupils who reside within the 5 km zone or those whose parents’ place of work is within the feeder zone. </p>
<p>But the quality of education – both actual and perceived – is highly variable across the province, and remains strongly shaped by the geography of <a href="http://scholar.ufs.ac.za:8080/xmlui/handle/11660/3608">apartheid</a>. The current default 5 km feeder zones substantially replicate apartheid geography. </p>
<p>These maps show that the proportions of pupils travelling more than 5 km vary greatly across schools, ranging all the way from 0% to 100% of a school’s student body. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/225461/original/file-20180629-117389-12z02xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/225461/original/file-20180629-117389-12z02xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/225461/original/file-20180629-117389-12z02xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=764&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225461/original/file-20180629-117389-12z02xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=764&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225461/original/file-20180629-117389-12z02xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=764&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225461/original/file-20180629-117389-12z02xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=960&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225461/original/file-20180629-117389-12z02xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=960&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225461/original/file-20180629-117389-12z02xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=960&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">GCRO</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some of this variation certainly relates to population density in the areas around a school. For example, outlying areas around Carletonville and Vanderbijlpark feature a number of schools where almost all pupils live more than 5 km from the school. By contrast, in densely populated areas, such as Pretoria, Tembisa, central Johannesburg and Soweto, schools have large numbers of pupils living within the 5 km radius. </p>
<p>These are the key trends we identified from our mapping:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>There is extensive and interesting variation within residential areas, and in many instances neighbouring schools appear to draw pupils from very different areas. </p></li>
<li><p>Over a third of pupils (37%) still travel more than 5 kms to school. For some pupils on the outskirts of the city-region their nearest school is more than 5 kms from where they live. For others this suggests the ability to exercise a level of <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/14733285.2013.812304">school choice</a>.</p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/225462/original/file-20180629-117382-k4kfw7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/225462/original/file-20180629-117382-k4kfw7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/225462/original/file-20180629-117382-k4kfw7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=764&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225462/original/file-20180629-117382-k4kfw7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=764&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225462/original/file-20180629-117382-k4kfw7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=764&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225462/original/file-20180629-117382-k4kfw7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=960&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225462/original/file-20180629-117382-k4kfw7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=960&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225462/original/file-20180629-117382-k4kfw7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=960&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">GCRO</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<ul>
<li><p>Many schools in more affluent suburban areas have high proportions of pupils travelling further than 5 km to reach school, but it’s in peripheral areas where the highest percentage of children per school are travelling long distances. In lower-income township areas, most schools draw their pupils from the surrounding community.</p></li>
<li><p>At the provincial level, there is no clear relationship between schools with high proportions of learners travelling more than 5 km, and measures parents may use to assess school quality, such as matric pass rate, historical department of education, or school fee status. </p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Many factors at play</h2>
<p>There are complex dynamics behind these patterns. They reflect decisions being made at many <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/johs.12097">different levels</a> by families and schools.</p>
<p>Families weigh multiple factors when choosing schools, and often do so in the face of <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/18146620508566299">incomplete or imperfect information</a>. These factors include a school’s teacher-pupil ratio, its ethos and reputation, its facilities, the language of instruction, racial composition, and its proximity to their home or work.</p>
<p>And of course, different families may weigh the same factors differently. A school’s ethos may be more important for some parents and learners, while for others the language of instruction is more significant. The reality is that we simply don’t know how Gauteng’s parents make these crucial decisions – and what this means for the provision of equitable access to quality education.</p>
<p>That’s one of the questions we’re asking in our <a href="http://gcro.ac.za/research/project/detail/gautengs-geography-of-education/">new research project</a>, in which we’ll gather data from parents and pupils around Gauteng about their reasons for choosing particular schools. </p>
<p>There are many costs to travelling further to school. However, the disadvantages of not accessing quality education may be <a href="http://www.oecd.org/social/broken-elevator-how-to-promote-social-mobility-9789264301085-en.htm">greater</a>. For many families in Gauteng there is much at stake.</p>
<p><em>Parents and pupils in Gauteng can send messages or voice notes about their school choices and commutes via WhatsApp on 078 047 7272. All stories will remain anonymous but may be quoted in research related publications in the future.</em></p>
<p><em>This article was co-authored by Christian Hamann, a junior researcher at the Gauteng City-Region Observatory.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/98897/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Over a third of pupils in the Gauteng province still travel more than five kilometres to school.Alexandra Parker, Researcher of urban & cultural studies, Gauteng City-Region ObservatoryJulia de Kadt, Senior Researcher, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/928272018-06-03T20:23:13Z2018-06-03T20:23:13ZGrowing cities face challenges of keeping the masses moving up, down and across<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/220043/original/file-20180523-51105-1d1gvl4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cities are growing vertically as well as horizontally, so infrastructure needs to ensure people can move up and down as well as across the city.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/avlxyz/16317398660/in/photolist-HmbAo-AKFN4B-drxSUL-6ziAjt-Hmfnn-Hmcaq-7jbxv-HmfGv-HmfrB-Hmffx-6A98sg-7jbQ3-9pJVPe-HmeQg-Hmfc4-Hmcku-3Xss1r-8r4pyt-7CwjK3-JzURC-HmbSm-4UE1ub-HmfKe-HmfXH-zA6MBs-88zMov-qRUW8E-K4Asz-88D2kG-Hmg5g-88zNt8-HYMpRU-GY34H-Hmbeq-6FrR5P-7TAywZ-9rG5ER-6FvYpE-Hmg9V-iRDjN-88zPbF-HmcDN-88zN6Z-GY36R-88D1Ay-HmbgJ-3cUWND-">Alpha/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This is the first article in our new series, <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/moving-the-masses-54500">Moving the Masses</a>, about managing the movements of large numbers of individuals, be they drivers or pedestrians, shoppers or commuters, birds or ants.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Cities worldwide face the problems and possibilities of “volume”: the stacking and moving of people and things within booming central business districts. We see this especially <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/half-a-million-commuters-on-the-road-to-sydney-s-four-big-jobs-hubs-20180522-p4zgvs.html">around mass public transport hubs</a>. </p>
<p>As cities grow, they also become more vertical. They are expanding underground through rail corridors and above ground into the tall buildings that shape city skylines. Cities are deep as well as wide. </p>
<p>The urban geographer <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/251591/vertical-by-stephen-graham/9781781689974/">Stephen Graham describes cities</a> as both “vertically stacked” and “vertically sprawled”, laced together by vertical and horizontal transport systems.</p>
<p>People flow in large cities is not only about how people move horizontally on rail and road networks into and out of city centres. It also includes vertical transport systems. These are the elevators, escalators and moving sidewalks that commuters use every day to get from the underground to the surface street level. </p>
<p>Major transport hubs are where many vertical and horizontal transport systems converge. It’s here that people flows are most dense. </p>
<p>But many large cities face the twin challenges of ageing infrastructure and increased volumes of people flowing through transport hubs. Problems of congestion, overcrowding, delays and even lockouts are becoming more common.</p>
<p>Governments are increasingly looking for ways to squeeze more capacity out of existing infrastructure networks.</p>
<h2>Can we increase capacity by changing behaviour?</h2>
<p>For the last three years, Transport for London (TfL) has been running standing-only escalator trials. The aim is to see if changing commuter behaviour might increase “throughput” of people and reduce delays. </p>
<p>London has some of the deepest underground stations in the world. This means the Tube system is heavily reliant on vertical transport such as escalators. But a long-standing convention means people only stand on the right side and allow others to walk up on the left.</p>
<p>In a trial at Holborn Station, one of London’s deepest at 23 metres, commuters were <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/road-and-rail-transport/12016428/Tube-station-abandons-stand-on-the-right-escalator-rule.html">asked to stand on both sides</a> during morning rush hour. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2017/03/the-results-are-in-the-holborn-escalator-trial-proves-that-it-is-better-to-stand-on-the-escalator-well-sometimes/">results of the trials</a> showed that changing commuter behaviour could improve throughput by increasing capacity by as much as 30% at peak times. But this works only in Tube stations with very tall escalators. At stations with escalators less than 18 metres high, like Canary Wharf, the trials found the opposite – standing would only increase congestion across the network.</p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/147/escalator-hype-sml.gif?1527814909" width="100%">
</p><figure> <figcaption>By standing only, 30% more people could fit on an escalator in the trial at Holborn Station.</figcaption></figure><p></p>
<p>The difference is down to human behaviour. People are simply less willing to walk up very tall escalators. This means a standing-only policy across the network won’t improve people flow uniformly and could even make congestion worse. </p>
<h2>Is people movement data a solution?</h2>
<p>With the introduction of ticketless transport cards it’s now possible to gather more data about people flow through busy transport hubs as we tap on and off. </p>
<p>Tracking commuters’ in-station journeys through their Wi-Fi-enabled devices, such as smart phones, can also offer a detailed picture of movement between platforms, congestion and delays.</p>
<p>Transport for London has already conducted its first <a href="http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2017/09/london-underground-wifi-tracking-heres-everything-we-learned-from-tfls-official-report/">Wi-Fi tracking trial</a> in the London Underground.</p>
<p>Issues of privacy loom large in harvesting mobile data from individual devices. Still, there’s enormous potential to use this data to resolve issues of overcrowding and inform commuters about delays and congestion en route.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rpSNLRYj27o?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">London’s transport authority hopes the data from tracking users’ phones will help ease congestion, plan better timetables and improve station designs.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Governments are also increasingly turning to consultancy firms that specialise in simulation modelling of people flow. That’s everything from check-in queues and processing at terminals, to route tracking and passenger flow on escalators.</p>
<p>Using data analytics, people movement specialists identify movement patterns, count footfall and analyse commuter behaviour. In existing infrastructure, they look to achieve “efficiencies” through changes to scheduling and routing, and assessing the directional flow of commuters.</p>
<p>Construction and engineering companies are also beginning to employ people movement specialists during the design phase of large infrastructure projects.</p>
<p>Beijing’s <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/outofasia/2018/01/10/beijings-new-daxing-international-airport-set-to-be-worlds-largest-but-business-aviation-an-afterthought/#692b0e2e68ef">Daxing airport</a>, due for completion in 2020, will be the largest transport hub in China. It’s also the first major infrastructure project to use crowd simulation and analysis software during the design process to test anticipated volume against capacity.</p>
<p>The advice of people movement specialists can have significant impacts on physical infrastructure. This involves aspects such as the width of platforms, number and placement of gates, and the layout and positioning of vertical transport, such as escalators. </p>
<h2>Movement analytics is becoming big business</h2>
<p>People movement analytics is becoming big business, especially where financialisation of public assets is increasing. This means infrastructure is being developed through complex public-private partnership models. As a result, transport hubs are now also commercial spaces for retail, leisure and business activities.</p>
<p>Commuters are no longer only in transit when they make their way through these spaces. They are potential consumers as they move through the retail concourse in many of these developments.</p>
<p>In an era of “digital disruption”, which is particularly affecting the retail sector, information about commuter mobility has potential commercial value. The application of data analytics to people flow and its use by the people movement industry to achieve “efficiencies” needs careful scrutiny to ensure benefits beyond commercial gain. </p>
<p>At the same time, mobility data may well help our increasingly vertical cities to keep flowing up, down and across.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>You can find other articles in the series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/moving-the-masses-54500">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92827/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrea Connor is a post-doctoral fellow on the Australian Research Council Discovery Project "Volumetric Urbanism". </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Donald McNeill has received funding from the Australian Research Council through a Future Fellowship on Governing Digital Cities.</span></em></p>Cities are expanding upwards and downwards, as well as outwards. With urban density also increasing, moving people efficiently around the city, often using ageing infrastructure, is quite a challenge.Andrea Connor, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Institute for Culture and Society, Western Sydney UniversityDonald McNeill, Professor of Urban and Cultural Geography, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/909922018-03-08T22:12:45Z2018-03-08T22:12:45ZTransit networks are key to smart growth in suburbs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208749/original/file-20180303-65529-19x5mje.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A woman is helped out of the wrecked car of a train that derailed at the station of Pioltello Limito, on the outskirts of Milan, Italy, Thursday, Jan. 25, 2018.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In late January, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/25/milan-train-crash-derailment-italy-commuter">a commuter train derailed</a> in northern Italy, near Milan. Three people were killed and 46 injured in the crash. An investigation into the cause of the derailment has focused on maintenance issues after <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/italian-train-derails-near-milan-1.4503092">a broken piece of track was found</a>. </p>
<p>The dramatic event has left commuters on edge. Many worry about their safety and that other derailments might occur in the future.
And they have lashed out at the regional train company Trenord that serves the region after it blamed delays on a “technical inconvenience” (<em>inconveniente technico</em>) on Twitter.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"956423658867699712"}"></div></p>
<p>The incident was terrible, but it was perhaps not a surprise. </p>
<p>The Italian regional railway systems have been criticized for their lack of maintenance. Italy ranked 15th in the <a href="https://www.bcg.com/publications/2017/transportation-travel-tourism-2017-european-railway-performance-index.aspx">2017 European Railway Performance Index</a>, just ahead of Lithuania, Ireland, Portugal and most of the eastern European countries. According to Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, Italy ranks sixth when it comes to rail accidents. In 2016, the country saw <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Railway_safety_statistics">99 rail accidents and 127 injuries and deaths</a> — and the largest increase in deaths of all 28 member countries since the previous year.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208752/original/file-20180303-65519-1w295dw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208752/original/file-20180303-65519-1w295dw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208752/original/file-20180303-65519-1w295dw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208752/original/file-20180303-65519-1w295dw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208752/original/file-20180303-65519-1w295dw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208752/original/file-20180303-65519-1w295dw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208752/original/file-20180303-65519-1w295dw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Frecciarossa is a high-speed train of the Italian national train operator, Trenitalia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Frecciarossa.JPG">(SuporesMundi/Wikimedia Commons)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Italy has long been locked in a debate over what to do about its aging local railway systems. But because of the derailment’s location — near the suburb of Segrate — a discussion has opened up on the need to develop of suburban infrastructure.</p>
<p>Investments have come more readily to high-speed rail systems like Trenitalia’s <a href="http://www.trenitalia.com/tcom/Le-Frecce">Le Frecce</a> and <a href="https://italospa.italotreno.it/">Italo-Nuovo Trasporto Viaggiatori</a>. But the local networks that connect city centres to their suburbs are struggling under the pressure of suburban expansion. </p>
<p>Italy’s big cities have historically faced a mismatch in the development of public transportation. Instead of developing a regional network, the focus has been on separate municipal systems or on the national high-speed railway network. </p>
<p>A deeper “regionalization” of transportation systems is perhaps what the Italian metropolitan areas need. They could learn from the experiences of cities in other countries, such as the Greater Toronto and Hamilton areas in southern Ontario, where the integration of <a href="http://www.metrolinx.com/en/">Metrolinx</a> and <a href="http://www.gotransit.com/publicroot/en/default.aspx">GoTransit</a> has reshaped transport distribution.</p>
<h2>Infrastructure an ‘enabler’</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/08111146.2016.1187122">Infrastructure, including rail systems, are enablers</a> that provide the conditions to make other activities possible. It makes the suburbs feasible; without it, suburbanites would not be able to travel throughout the larger metropolitan areas where they live. </p>
<p>The world’s population is increasingly moving from rural areas to more urban ones. By 2045, <a href="https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/publications/files/wup2014-highlights.pdf">more than six billion are expected to be “urbanized”</a> thanks to constant suburban growth. In this regard, suburban infrastructure is becoming more important. </p>
<p>Not only is suburban infrastructure a key aspect of this growth, connecting outlying neighbourhoods to the central urban core, but it also saves suburbanites time and money as they move from home to school to work and elsewhere; they are dependent on transport services.</p>
<p>Yet we need change. Cities are beginning to leave behind their dependence on automobiles, as they improve — and integrate — their metropolitan and regional transportation systems and <a href="http://www.kas.de/upload/dokumente/megacities/megacities1/allgemein/scott-global-city-regions.pdf">become large city-regions</a>. </p>
<p>For example, in Montreal, the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlvzpsEzVZc">Réseau express métropolitain (REM)</a> will serve the whole metropolitan area through a sophisticated rail and bus system inserted into the urban landscape. In Auckland, New Zealand, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLcS23YbJ_Q">new electric trains </a> have transformed the transit system after a recent population boom. And in Paris, the <a href="https://parisbytrain.com/paris-rer/">Réseau Express Régional (RER)</a>, a commuter and rapid transit system, connects Europe’s second largest city with its huge <em>banlieue</em>, the Paris suburbs.</p>
<h2>An uneven development</h2>
<p>However, the development of suburban infrastructure is fragmented. It is strongly dependent on a city’s political, technical and financial priorities. Local administrations in suburbs cope daily with the provision of adequate transport infrastructures that connect suburban areas with metropolitan cores. Yet, highways still get more attention.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208753/original/file-20180303-65541-7q1ggl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208753/original/file-20180303-65541-7q1ggl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208753/original/file-20180303-65541-7q1ggl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208753/original/file-20180303-65541-7q1ggl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208753/original/file-20180303-65541-7q1ggl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208753/original/file-20180303-65541-7q1ggl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208753/original/file-20180303-65541-7q1ggl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A highway interchange in the West Midlands region in the United Kingdom.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/highwaysagency/6194409693/">(Highways England/flickr)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Milan’s suburban area, where the train accident occurred, a new beltway called <a href="http://www.spea-engineering.it/project/t-e-e-m-tangenziale-est-esterna-di-milano/">TEEM</a> was launched in 2014. But three years later, <a href="https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2016/07/22/brebemi-compie-due-anni-e-si-conferma-in-vetta-alla-classifica-delle-autostrade-lombarde-meno-utilizzate/2926209/">traffic volume remains very low</a> and its usefulness has been called into question. </p>
<p>There is also a high degree of unevenness in the way the suburbs develop. </p>
<p>Some geographic areas expand more rapidly than others, making it difficult for local governments to meet the suburbs’ infrastructure needs. Wealth and poverty are juxtaposed in suburban areas. Some suburbs are growing faster than others as target-areas of private investments, whereas other towns experience economic declines.</p>
<p>Social inequality is both reflected in and intensified by high levels of unevenness in the availability of transportation infrastructure. Some suburbanites will have no choice and remain car-dependent, whereas others may use the train even if they own cars.</p>
<h2>Retrofitting solutions</h2>
<p>Given this inequality, how do we identify the right solution?</p>
<p>A retrofitting process that focuses on fairness would be a good option. Just as <a href="https://righttothecitymtl.wordpress.com/2012/08/15/urban-spatial-justice/">spatial justice</a> looks at the consequence of urban development on social fabric, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305398785_Transport_Justice_Designing_Fair_Transportation_Systems">transport justice</a> can be seen as a new perspective to discuss the adaptation of metropolitan transportation planning to the commuters’ daily life.</p>
<p>If we are to reduce the gap between the growing suburbs and their infrastructure, we must reduce disparities, give local services the same attention as high-speed trains and develop routes that meet commuters’ needs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90992/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lorenzo De Vidovich does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The development of suburban infrastructure depends on political, technical and financial priorities. A train derailment in an Italian suburb has highlighted the need to retrofit infrastructure.Lorenzo De Vidovich, PhD Candidate in Urban Planning, Design and Policy | Urban welfare researcher, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/908142018-02-07T11:28:50Z2018-02-07T11:28:50ZAre traffic-clogged US cities ready for congestion pricing?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204939/original/file-20180205-14104-blb0r4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Times Square traffic jam.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/cmJa3q">bk</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>New York is the latest city to contemplate <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/18/nyregion/driving-manhattan-congestion-traffic.html">congestion pricing</a> as a way to deal with traffic problems. This strategy, which requires motorists to pay fees for driving into city centers during busy periods, is a rarity in urban public policy: a measure that works and is cost-effective. </p>
<p>Properly used, congestion pricing can ease traffic, speed up travel times, reduce pollution and provide funds for public transport and infrastructure investments. The details matter, including the size and timing of charges and the area that they cover. Congestion charges also raises equity issues, since rich people are best able to move closer to work or change their schedules to avoid the steepest costs. </p>
<p>But the key point is that this approach has succeeded in cities including London, Singapore and Stockholm. For scholars like me who focus on urban issues, serious discussion of congestion pricing in New York City is welcome news. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204942/original/file-20180205-14089-kzh7bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204942/original/file-20180205-14089-kzh7bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204942/original/file-20180205-14089-kzh7bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204942/original/file-20180205-14089-kzh7bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204942/original/file-20180205-14089-kzh7bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204942/original/file-20180205-14089-kzh7bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204942/original/file-20180205-14089-kzh7bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204942/original/file-20180205-14089-kzh7bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Commuters crowd a Grand Central subway station platform in New York, May 4, 2016. Proposed congestion charges in New York would generate money to improve public transit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Stuck-in-the-Subway/5289431d677b4c16971d7f8c770ca9e1/72/0">AP Photo/Bebeto Matthews, File</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The down side of density</h2>
<p>Cities concentrate people close together for good economic reasons. Clustering activities allows transfers of information, knowledge and skills. At their best, cities create deep pools of labor, large markets of consumers and savings in the provision of public goods such as mass transit and trash collection. Planners should be encouraging cities to <a href="https://theconversation.com/want-the-economy-to-grow-its-time-to-look-at-cities-and-efficiency-54517">become bigger and more dense</a> if we want to improve economic performance.</p>
<p>But growing concentration also imposes costs, and one of the largest is traffic congestion. Costs multiply when we factor in use of motor vehicles on public roads. Drivers spend valuable time sitting idly in traffic jams, while noise, accidents and pollution impose heavy burdens on city residents. </p>
<h2>Should road use be free?</h2>
<p>The idea of charging for use of public roads is not new. Economist Arthur Pigou discussed the issue <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Economics-Welfare-Classics-Economics/dp/0765807394/ref=sr_1_4?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1517221260&sr=1-4&keywords=Arthur+Pigou">as early as 1920</a> as part of his attempt to remedy the suboptimal workings of the market system. In 1963 Canadian-born economist William Vickrey argued that roads were scarce resources that should be valued by <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/1823886?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">imposing costs on users</a>. </p>
<p>Consumers intuitively understand differential pricing. We expect to pay more for airline tickets at peak travel times and for hotel rooms at popular times of the year. Congestion pricing operates in the same way. By increasing prices, it forces users to think about the cost of making a trip. A congestion tax is what behavioral economists call a <a href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=89BpAwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PA1&dq=Nudge&ots=Bw5AHbgBoT&sig=j_P3h_JdqZ85Mx_4QInz3JWB18g#v=onepage&q=Nudge&f=false">“nudge”</a> that makes people evaluate their travel patterns.</p>
<p>And it can be effective. A 2008 <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/wide-use-of-tolls-could-unclog-roads-seattle-study-says/">study</a> gave drivers in Seattle a hypothetical cash sum to spend on trips, charged them tolls linked to traffic congestion levels, and let them keep money they did not spend. Their cars were fitted with equipment to monitor driving patterns. </p>
<p>The results showed that pricing affected behavior: Travelers altered their schedules, took different routes or collapsed multiple trips into single journeys. Collectively, these changes reduced congestion at peak time, lessened wait times and increased average travel speeds in the study’s regional traffic model.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204943/original/file-20180205-14096-r8448g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204943/original/file-20180205-14096-r8448g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204943/original/file-20180205-14096-r8448g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204943/original/file-20180205-14096-r8448g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204943/original/file-20180205-14096-r8448g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204943/original/file-20180205-14096-r8448g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204943/original/file-20180205-14096-r8448g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204943/original/file-20180205-14096-r8448g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Travel speeds across Manhattan and citywide have consistently fallen since 2012.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.nyc.gov/html/dot/html/about/mobilityreport.shtml">New York City DOT</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Congestion pricing in practice</h2>
<p><a href="https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/fhwahop08047/02summ.htm">Singapore</a> was one of the first major cities to introduce congestion pricing in 1975, charging US$1.30 for a vehicle to enter the central business district between 7:30 and 9:30 a.m. The policy had political support because most residents used public transport, with only the wealthiest driving private cars. The tax was viewed as a more equitable distribution of costs.</p>
<p>The net result was that congestion was reduced and travel times improved. Between 1975 and 1988, the project generated revenues 11 times larger than its costs. Pollution decreased and pedestrian safety improved. In 1998 Singapore shifted to <a href="http://roadpricing.blogspot.com/2016/03/singapore-will-have-worlds-first-gnss.html">variable charges</a> that target congested road stretches and vary by time of day and travel direction.</p>
<p><a href="https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/fhwahop08047/02summ.htm">London</a> introduced congestion pricing in 2003, charging motorists, entering central London between 7 a.m. and 6 p.m. on weekdays, 5 British pounds (about $7) per day. The scheme generated 2.6 billion pounds (about $3.63 billion) in its first decade, almost half of which was invested in public transport and infrastructure improvements. </p>
<p>The Congestion Charge, as it is known, reduced the number of automobiles entering the city by <a href="https://www.centreforpublicimpact.org/case-study/demand-management-for-roads-in-london/">44 percent</a> from the pre-charge level and slightly reduced traffic accidents. Air quality in central London also improved. </p>
<p>The charge did produce some <a href="http://www.ires.nus.edu.sg/workingpapers/IRES2016-013.pdf">unintended consequences</a>. House prices within the Congestion Charge zone increased – bid upward by consumers who appear willing to pay to avoid traffic and enjoy improved environmental conditions. Over the long term, the congestion tax lubricated the gentrification of central London. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204945/original/file-20180205-14064-l53kcc.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204945/original/file-20180205-14064-l53kcc.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204945/original/file-20180205-14064-l53kcc.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204945/original/file-20180205-14064-l53kcc.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204945/original/file-20180205-14064-l53kcc.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204945/original/file-20180205-14064-l53kcc.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204945/original/file-20180205-14064-l53kcc.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204945/original/file-20180205-14064-l53kcc.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">London’s Congestion Charge zone.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://tfl.gov.uk/modes/driving/congestion-charge/congestion-charge-zone">Transport for London</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But this process is common to many other big cities, with or without congestion pricing: The rich preempt central city locations and <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Unequal-City-Resurgence-Displacement-Inequality/dp/1138280372/ref=asap_bc?ie=UTF8">displace the less wealthy to the suburbs</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/fhwahop08047/02summ.htm">Stockholm</a> introduced a congestion tax in 2007, after a seven-month trial and bitter political fights. Vehicles entering the central city were charged different rates over the course of the day, reaching 35 Swedish kronor (about $4.40) during morning and evening rush hours. </p>
<p>The tax gradually gained public support and decreased congestion as commuters <a href="http://www.transportportal.se/swopec/cts2014-7.pdf">shifted to public transport</a>.
Other Swedish municipalities have since copied the scheme.</p>
<h2>Congestion pricing in the US</h2>
<p>While the United States has <a href="https://www.ibtta.org/sites/default/files/documents/MAF/2014_TollingBrief_0.pdf">over 5,000 miles of toll roads</a>, congestion pricing is uncommon. One exception is Interstate Route 66 in the Washington, D.C., metro region, where <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-40-toll-for-a-10-mile-trip-this-is-the-new-infrastructure-math-2017-12-07">fluctuating tolls</a> were introduced on Dec. 4, 2017. Pricing for these express lanes changes every six minutes during rush hour eastbound in the morning and westbound in the afternoon. The toll hit $40 for a 10-mile stretch the day after it was introduced. </p>
<p>But this is just one well-used road, and there are many other routes into central Washington. The I-66 tolls are more about generating revenue on one road than reducing congestion citywide. </p>
<p>Currently, the <a href="http://www.hntb.com/HNTB/media/HNTBMediaLibrary/Home/Fix-NYC-Panel-Report.pdf">proposed plan</a> for New York City would charge cars $11.52 cars to enter Manhattan below 60th Street on weekdays during business hours. Trucks would be charged $25.34, and taxis and app-based rides such as Uber and Lyft would be charged $2 to $5. The tax would generate $1.5 billion yearly.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204941/original/file-20180205-14072-17xzi95.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204941/original/file-20180205-14072-17xzi95.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204941/original/file-20180205-14072-17xzi95.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=197&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204941/original/file-20180205-14072-17xzi95.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=197&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204941/original/file-20180205-14072-17xzi95.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=197&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204941/original/file-20180205-14072-17xzi95.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=248&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204941/original/file-20180205-14072-17xzi95.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=248&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204941/original/file-20180205-14072-17xzi95.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=248&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Proposed zone pricing for Manhattan Central Business District.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.hntb.com/HNTB/media/HNTBMediaLibrary/Home/Fix-NYC-Panel-Report.pdf">Fix NYC Advisory Panel Report</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What about equity? Only 4 percent of people who commute into New York City travel by car, and of those, only 5,000 could be classified as <a href="http://fortune.com/2018/01/25/nyc-congestion-fees/">working poor</a>. Increased funding from congestion fees would allow more investment in mass transit, making life easier for the majority of New Yorkers who commute by public transit. </p>
<p>Unlike other taxes that can be easily dismissed as imposing costs and killing jobs, congestion pricing improves market efficiencies because it forces people to think about their travel and leads to a more rational use of our public roads. In my view, it is a powerful policy whose time has definitely come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90814/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Rennie Short does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New York soon may charge a fee to drive into central Manhattan as a way of reducing traffic and raising funds for public transit. An urban scholar says this step is overdue in the United States.John Rennie Short, Professor, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/793432017-07-02T20:08:57Z2017-07-02T20:08:57ZStuck in traffic: busting Melbourne versus Sydney myths and identifying the worst commutes<p>Crawling along in low gear, Melbourne drivers often comfort themselves with the thought that at least they’re not in Sydney, where “everyone knows” traffic delays are longer and even more frustrating. Sorry, Melburnians, but you’re kidding yourselves.</p>
<p>New analysis for a forthcoming report by the Grattan Institute debunks several myths about traffic congestion in Australia’s biggest cities – including the conventional wisdom that Sydney-siders are doing it tougher. </p>
<p>Sydney may have <a>340,000 more people</a> and an enormous harbour constricting movements from one part of the city to another, but Melbourne is pretty much on a par when it comes to congestion. </p>
<h2>Twin pictures of congestion</h2>
<p>Chart 1 shows the delay that an average CBD commuter endures in Sydney and Melbourne, compared to how long it would take to do the trip in the early hours of the morning when the only constraints are traffic lights and speed limits. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175777/original/file-20170627-21898-1mga1nj.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175777/original/file-20170627-21898-1mga1nj.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175777/original/file-20170627-21898-1mga1nj.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175777/original/file-20170627-21898-1mga1nj.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175777/original/file-20170627-21898-1mga1nj.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175777/original/file-20170627-21898-1mga1nj.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175777/original/file-20170627-21898-1mga1nj.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175777/original/file-20170627-21898-1mga1nj.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Data for more than 300 routes travelling to and from the CBD were collected 25 times each day over about 12 weeks between March and June 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan analysis of Google Maps data</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the morning peak, an average Melbourne CBD commuting trip takes close to 70% longer than it would in the middle of the night. The 11-kilometre trip from Brighton takes an extra 13 minutes, and the 30km trip from Caroline Springs an extra 20 minutes. The 9km from Coburg take an extra 14 minutes, while the 17km from Doncaster take an extra 20 minutes.</p>
<p>It’s similar in Sydney. The average morning commute to the CBD takes 50-60% longer than it would in the middle of the night. The 40km trip from Liverpool takes an extra 32 minutes, while a trip of similar length from Blacktown typically takes an extra 20. Driving the 17km from Manly takes an extra 21 minutes, while the 7km trip from the airport takes an extra 12.</p>
<p>It doesn’t take quite as long to get home from the city. In the afternoon peak, an average trip takes up to 60% longer than it would in the middle of the night. But it’s harder to avoid the delay: peak “hour” is much longer in the evening than in the morning. Any time from 3.30pm to 6pm you can expect your trip to take at least 40% longer.</p>
<p>We found these patterns by analysing Google Maps estimates of travel times for more than 300 routes across Sydney and Melbourne. The data include 25 travel-time estimates every day for several months. This includes commutes to the CBD and other employment centres, important freight routes, shorter trips within the inner, middle and outer rings, and cross-city trips. </p>
<h2>So which drivers have the worst run?</h2>
<p>Here’s a finding that might surprise drivers who have to crawl over the West Gate Bridge to get to and from work: the worst place to commute to Melbourne’s CBD is not from the rapidly growing western suburbs, but from the northeastern suburbs. That probably won’t surprise you if your commute includes the Eastern Freeway. </p>
<p>Chart 2 shows the typical delay for commuters coming to Melbourne’s CBD from the southeast, northeast, north, south and west. The northeast is the stand-out worst performer, as those who live in Doncaster, Heidelberg and beyond know all too well.
Interestingly, people commuting from the west face much more modest delays.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175779/original/file-20170627-29117-4py4yq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175779/original/file-20170627-29117-4py4yq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175779/original/file-20170627-29117-4py4yq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175779/original/file-20170627-29117-4py4yq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175779/original/file-20170627-29117-4py4yq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175779/original/file-20170627-29117-4py4yq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175779/original/file-20170627-29117-4py4yq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175779/original/file-20170627-29117-4py4yq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan analysis of Google Maps data</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Sydney does not have a single region where residents can so clearly expect bad city commutes. That doesn’t mean there’s no congestion. And neither does it mean that it’s just people going to the CBD who are caught up in the commuting tangle. It’s also all the freight vehicles, tradespeople, students going to school or uni, people going to appointments in business hours, and others going elsewhere but still caught up in the snarl of traffic.</p>
<p>Chart 3 shows a selection of trips that don’t include the Sydney CBD but do have delays, with the size of delay depending on the direction of the trip. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176325/original/file-20170630-26970-1r9bzya.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176325/original/file-20170630-26970-1r9bzya.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176325/original/file-20170630-26970-1r9bzya.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176325/original/file-20170630-26970-1r9bzya.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176325/original/file-20170630-26970-1r9bzya.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176325/original/file-20170630-26970-1r9bzya.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176325/original/file-20170630-26970-1r9bzya.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176325/original/file-20170630-26970-1r9bzya.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In Sydney, the delay depends more on the direction of the trip, than what side of the city commuters are driving from.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan analysis of Google Maps data</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The how-long-does-it-take-you-to-get-to-work story involves more than roads. One-quarter of Sydney commuters and 18% of Melbourne commuters <a href="https://bitre.gov.au/publications/2014/files/is_059.pdf">use public transport</a>, and these figures are much <a href="https://blogs.crikey.com.au/theurbanist/2015/01/21/why-do-commuters-drive-to-work-instead-of-taking-transit/">higher for commuters to the CBD</a>. Nonetheless, around <a href="https://bitre.gov.au/publications/2016/files/BITRE_yearbook_2016_statistics_full_report.pdf">eight of every ten kilometres of travel</a> by Sydney and Melbourne residents is by car. </p>
<p>What happens on our roads affects the daily lives of most city dwellers, as well as the social and economic rhythms of the city. The Grattan Institute will publish a fuller analysis of congestion in coming months, to help governments make the best use of our transport networks – and reduce your time on the road.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79343/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and Grattan uses the income to pursue its activities.</span></em></p>For Melbourne drivers who comfort themselves with the thought that traffic congestion is worse in Sydney, sorry but new analysis shows overall delays are similar, but some commutes are especially bad.Marion Terrill, Transport Program Director, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/783692017-06-08T14:56:59Z2017-06-08T14:56:59ZA day in the life of a smart-city commuter – and why it’s not so far from reality<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172929/original/file-20170608-32318-ant7rb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The alarm on your smart phone went off 10 minutes earlier than usual this morning. Parts of the city are closed off in preparation for a popular end of summer event, so congestion is expected to be worse than usual. You’ll need to catch an earlier bus to make it to work on time. </p>
<p>The alarm time is tailored to your morning routine, which is monitored every day by your smart watch. It takes into account the weather forecast (rain expected at 7am), the day of the week (it’s Monday, and traffic is always worse on a Monday), as well as the fact that you went to bed late last night (this morning, you’re likely to be slower than usual). The phone buzzes again – it’s time to leave, if you want to catch that bus.</p>
<p>While walking to the bus stop, your phone suggests a small detour – for some reason, the town square you usually stroll through is very crowded this morning. You pass your favourite coffee shop on your way, and although they have a 20% discount this morning, your phone doesn’t alert you – after all, you’re in a hurry. </p>
<p>After your morning walk, you feel fresh and energised. You check in at the Wi-Fi and Bluetooth-enabled bus stop, which updates the driver of the next bus. He now knows that there are 12 passengers waiting to be picked up, which means he should increase his speed slightly if possible, to give everyone time to board. The bus company is also notified, and are already deploying an extra bus to cope with the high demand along your route. While you wait, you notice a parent with two young children, entertaining themselves with the touch-screen information system installed at the bus stop.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172938/original/file-20170608-6975-17ej5a0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172938/original/file-20170608-6975-17ej5a0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172938/original/file-20170608-6975-17ej5a0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172938/original/file-20170608-6975-17ej5a0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172938/original/file-20170608-6975-17ej5a0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172938/original/file-20170608-6975-17ej5a0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172938/original/file-20170608-6975-17ej5a0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bus stops of the future.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-blonde-female-using-tourist-information-644261947?src=2yKhoQskfDY5DQSRTQGrMw-1-2">from www.shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Once the bus arrives, boarding goes smoothly: almost all passengers were using tickets stored on their smart phones, so there was only one time-consuming cash payment. On the bus, you take out a tablet from your bag to catch up on some news and emails using the free on-board Wi-Fi service. You suddenly realise that you forgot to charge your phone, so you connect it to the USB charging point next to the seat. Although the traffic is really slow, you manage to get through most of your work emails, so the time on the bus is by no means wasted.</p>
<p>The moment the bus drops you off in front of your office, your boss informs you of an unplanned visit to a site, so you make a booking with a car-sharing scheme, such as <a href="http://www.co-wheels.org.uk/">Co-wheels</a>. You secure a car for the journey, with a folding bike in the boot.</p>
<p>Your destination is in the middle of town, so when you arrive on the outskirts you park the shared car in a nearby parking bay (which is actually a member’s unused driveway) and take the bike for the rest of the journey to save time and avoid traffic. Your travel app gives you instructions via your Bluetooth headphones – it suggests how to adjust your speed on the bike, according to your fitness level. Because of your asthma, the app suggests a route that avoids <a href="http://www.sensingcities.org/">a particularly polluted area</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172934/original/file-20170608-5114-vs7ohk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172934/original/file-20170608-5114-vs7ohk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172934/original/file-20170608-5114-vs7ohk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172934/original/file-20170608-5114-vs7ohk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172934/original/file-20170608-5114-vs7ohk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172934/original/file-20170608-5114-vs7ohk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172934/original/file-20170608-5114-vs7ohk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sick ride.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/mr_t_in_dc/8231777010/sizes/l">Mr.tinDC/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After your meeting, you opt to get a cab back to the office, so that you can answer some emails on the way. With a tap on your smartphone, you order the cab, and in the two minutes it takes to arrive you fold up your bike so that you can return it to the boot of another shared vehicle near your office. You’re in a hurry, so no green reward points for walking today, I’m afraid – but at least you made it to the meeting on time, saving kilograms of CO2 on the way.</p>
<h2>Get real</h2>
<p>It may sound like fiction, but truth be told, most of the data required to make this day happen are already being collected in one form or another. Your smart phone is able to track your location, speed and even <a href="https://theconversation.com/harvesting-big-data-could-bring-about-the-next-transport-revolution-right-now-77261">the type of activity</a> that you’re performing at any given time – whether you’re driving, walking or riding a bike. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, fitness trackers and smart watches can monitor your heart rate and physical activity. Your search history and behaviour on social media sites can reveal your interests, tastes and even intentions: for instance, the data created when you look at holiday offers online not only hints at where you want to go, but also when and how much you’re willing to pay for it.</p>
<p>Personal devices aside, the rise of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-the-internet-of-things-16542">Internet of Things</a> with distributed networks of all sorts of sensors, which can measure anything from air pollution to traffic intensity, is yet another source of data. Not to mention the constant feed of information available on social media about any topic you care to mention. </p>
<p>With so much data available, it seems as though the picture of our environment is almost complete. But all of these datasets sit in separate systems that don’t interact, managed by different entities which don’t necessarily fancy sharing. So although the technology is already there, our data remains siloed with different organisations, and institutional obstacles stand in the way of attaining this level of service. Whether or not that’s a bad thing, is up to you to decide.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78369/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marcin Budka receives funding from Innovate UK. The author would like to acknowledge the insightful contributions of Mr Tom Quay, the MD of We Are Base Ltd, the author's KTP project partner.</span></em></p>All it takes is data … lots of data.Marcin Budka, Principal Academic in Data Science, Bournemouth UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/778672017-05-17T20:17:09Z2017-05-17T20:17:09ZGet used to your commute: data confirms houses near jobs are too expensive<p>Australia’s capital cities are getting more and more units, that are largely concentrated and come with a hefty price tag, <a href="http://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/281">a new report shows</a>. And while these areas also have lots of jobs, the high price for houses means many on low incomes won’t be able to access that employment.</p>
<p>Between 2006 and 2014, more than 50% of new units were built in the 20% of local government areas with the highest number of jobs. </p>
<p>When compared internationally, <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-almost-a-world-leader-in-home-building-so-that-isnt-a-fix-for-affordability-73514">it would seem that Australian housing supply has not been as weak as is widely believed</a>. However, the report points to some stark differences in housing supply patterns, emerging across Australia’s capital cities. </p>
<p>In Sydney, Perth and Brisbane, new housing supply has lagged slightly behind population growth. In the other capital cities, housing supply actually outpaced population growth between 2006 and 2014. </p>
<h2>Housing supply and house prices</h2>
<p>The issue of housing affordability has traditionally been pitched in terms of <a href="http://sjm.ministers.treasury.gov.au/speech/005-2017/">supply failing to keep pace with growing demand</a>, and house prices rising in response to the imbalance.</p>
<p>Yet, house price inflation has surged even in metropolitan areas where housing supply exceeds population growth. The evidence suggests a complex relationship between supply, population growth and price that is shaped by both supply and demand-side factors. </p>
<p>As prices and rents rise, housing costs continue to eat up larger shares of household incomes, particularly in moderate and low-income groups. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/281">The study shows</a> 80% of new unit approvals were located in the top 20% of local government areas with the highest unit prices. This is while 80% of new house approvals were in the top 40% of local government areas with the highest house prices. </p>
<p>There is very little new supply in areas where house prices are lower, where households on low to moderate incomes can afford to live. </p>
<h2>Affordable housing, cities and productivity</h2>
<p>The lack of affordable housing in the vicinity of employment centres can pose threats to the productivity of our cities. If suburban residents are forced into longer commutes to access employment in the CBD, it can <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/5662/AHURI_Final_Report_No251_Making-connections-housing,-productivity-and-economic-development.pdf">reduce productivity</a>.</p>
<p>A potential consequence is that low-paid workers are deterred from seeking jobs in CBDs. This would then cause certain skills to become unavailable, and businesses to be less efficient, because they cannot quickly fill vacancies with suitable applicants. </p>
<p>Our data shows new units have grown by 30% in areas which have the most jobs, between 2005-06 and 2013-14. In contrast to this new units have only grown by 2.5% in areas with less jobs. </p>
<p>It would appear that unit approvals are concentrated in areas with abundant job opportunities. So productivity could improve, as congestion eases, and commute times lowered, if (and it’s a big if) these dwellings were affordable to those wishing to take advantage of these job opportunities.</p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/yEULH/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>New housing supply has grown at a pace that matches population growth rates, at the national level. However, there is plenty of variation across the capital cities. </p>
<p>The strongest growth in the number of units has been in the territories (though this is from a low base), followed by Melbourne and Brisbane. However, the strongest growth in the number of houses has been in Perth, at around 22%. </p>
<p>Sydney has experienced much lower growth in its number of houses, at less than 10%. This reflects the very different patterns of development in the two cities. </p>
<p>In Perth, Brisbane and Sydney, increases in the supply of housing didn’t keep pace with population growth during, between 2006 and 2014. However, the drivers of this shortfall are varied. </p>
<p>Perth’s population grew very strongly over the period that we studied. The roughly one-quarter increase in population would stretch the capacity of most housing construction sectors. </p>
<p>However, even though Sydney’s population growth (at 14%) is below the average across all capital cities, its housing supply failed to match this growth. These outcomes highlight the different demand and supply side factors operating across states. </p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xVDRL/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="371"></iframe>
<p>We currently have a national housing policy narrative that is dominated by a consensus view that higher levels of housing supply are the solution to housing affordability problems. While increased supply will always help take steam out of pressured markets, our study suggests a more nuanced approach is needed to the supply side, while not ignoring the demand side pressures. </p>
<p>It’s important that we identify those barriers to expanding affordable housing supply that have been impeded in the majority of our cities, especially for low income households.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77867/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The research reported in this article has been funded by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute grant number 81073.
Rachel Ong is Deputy Director of the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre, an independent economic and social research organisation located within Curtin Business School at Curtin University. The centre was established in 2012 with support from Bankwest (a division of Commonwealth Bank of Australia) and Curtin University. The views in this article are those of the authors and do not represent the views of Curtin University and/or Bankwest or any of their affiliates.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Phelps is a research assistant at the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre, an independent economic and social research organisation located within Curtin Business School at Curtin University. The centre was established in 2012 with support from Bankwest (a division of Commonwealth Bank of Australia) and Curtin University. The views in this article are those of the authors and do not represent the views of Curtin University and/or Bankwest or any of their affiliates.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gavin Wood is Emeritus Professor of Housing and Urban Studies, RMIT University and Professorial Fellow,in the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre. Gavin Wood receives research funding from Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI). The views in this article are those of the authors and do not represent the views of AHURI or any other organisation.. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steven Rowley is Director of the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute's Curtin Research Centre. He receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute and the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre. He is chair of the Housing Industry Forecasting Group in Western Australia</span></em></p>Data on housing supply in Australia’s capital shows that while it’s increasing in areas with lots of jobs, house prices are too high for those who might want to move for work.Rachel Ong ViforJ, Deputy Director, Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre, Curtin UniversityChristopher Phelps, Research assistant, Curtin UniversityGavin Wood, Professor of Housing, RMIT UniversitySteven Rowley, Director, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Curtin Research Centre, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/750682017-04-11T14:07:41Z2017-04-11T14:07:41ZJohannesburg’s bike lanes are not well used. Here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163617/original/image-20170403-25872-1utd8oc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A largely unused cycle lane between Sandton and Alexandra in Johannesburg.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Njogu Morgan</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When you think of the world’s bicycle friendly cities, Johannesburg probably doesn’t feature. That’s not for lack of trying. Over the past few years bicycle lanes have been built in various parts of South Africa’s <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/general/97211/south-africas-fastest-growing-cities/">most populous city</a>.</p>
<p>These lanes were meant to encourage commuter cycling and were also <a href="http://www.joburg-archive.co.za/2003/budget/idp/annex7.pdf">a response</a> to growing road congestion as well as an awareness that reliance on private cars has negative economic, health, social and environmental consequences. Commuters have a rough time on Johannesburg’s congested roads. It’s been ranked as having the world’s <a href="https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/trafficindex/city/johannesburg">fifth most painful</a> commuter experience of 20 international cities surveyed.</p>
<p>But the introduction of bike lanes garnered more outrage than support. Some <a href="http://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2016/06/10/There-won%E2%80%99t-be-bicycle-lanes-in-Sandton%E2%80%9A-says-Malema">opponents</a> asked how the city could spend money on bike lanes in the face of other, more pressing needs. It was suggested that bicycle lanes were a luxury for the rich – even though most people who use bicycles to commute fall into <a href="http://www.joburg-archive.co.za/2003/budget/idp/annex7.pdf">lower income brackets</a>. Wealthier people generally <a href="http://repository.up.ac.za/handle/2263/57760">don’t use</a> bicycles for transport, even when travelling short distances.</p>
<p>This argument succeeded. The new city council which took office early in 2016 decided <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/joburg-mayor-mashabas-shock-move-2067896">to halt</a> future bicycle lane development. Projects that had already been put out to tender <a href="http://www.joburg.org.za/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=9504&catid=217&Itemid=114">continued</a> but no new lanes were to be built.</p>
<p>The problem is that bicycling lanes alone don’t create a commuter cycling culture. Scholars across a range of disciplines have written about transport’s systemic dimensions. Different elements – transport technology, industries, social groups and institutions – affect how people move around. Infrastructure, habits, social norms and knowledge also play a role. A transport system only works efficiently if all the different elements exist: cars can’t be driven without roads as well as users who know how to drive them.</p>
<p>The absence of all those different elements has made Johannesburg’s bike lanes a white elephant.</p>
<h2>Interconnected systems</h2>
<p>Bike lanes have worked elsewhere in the world. Part of the reason for the success of commuter cycling in the Netherlands is the extensive, separated, [interconnected system of cycling paths which makes cycling safe, comfortable and convenient. </p>
<p>The city of Seville in Spain is also regularly pointed out as another example where a well designed, separated system of cycle tracks helped to quickly popularise commuter cycling from a very low base. In the four years between 2007 and 2011 the share of trips taken by bicycle <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S073988591500061X">almost doubled</a> to 5.6%. </p>
<p>Transport scholars also argue that any transport system is itself nested in place. It’s shaped by a range of factors: social values, alternative transport systems, politics and topography. </p>
<p>This perspective, and the knowledge that’s come from it, helps provide some answers about why Johannesburg’s bicycle lanes are underused.</p>
<p>The first insight is that various elements which constitute a bicycle commuting system have not yet fully formed. Bike ownership is one issue. The 2014 Household Travel Survey <a href="http://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/Report-03-20-10/Report-03-20-102014.pdf">revealed</a> that only 28.7% of households within the City of Johannesburg owned bicycles in working order. </p>
<p>A forthcoming study by the Centre for Anthropological Research at the University of Johannesburg, parts of which I have seen, which surveyed students and others who live near cycle lanes around the city’s universities, reveals that more than 70% of respondents do not own bicycles.</p>
<p>There are other barriers that inhibit bicycle users. Research has found that potential users are concerned about blockages, like rubble, on the bike lanes. Other issues cited in <a href="http://www.juca.org.za/?p=817">one piece</a> of research include “lack of respect for cyclists and the cycling lane[s], [the] stigma of being a cyclist [and] lack of road safety for cycle users”.</p>
<p>Potential bicycle users are also held back by concerns about personal safety, particularly theft.</p>
<p>This shows that bicycle lanes are only one of the necessary elements for a vibrant commuter cycling culture. A “build it and they will come” approach that relies heavily on bicycling infrastructure is unlikely to work in isolation. </p>
<p>It may be useful instead to consider bicycle lanes as what US transportation scholar Jessica E Schoner has <a href="https://conservancy.umn.edu/bitstream/handle/11299/180052/CatalystsAndMagnets.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">called</a> </p>
<blockquote>
<p>‘magnets’ to attract bicyclists to a neighbourhood, rather than being the ‘catalyst’ that encourages non-bikers to shift modes. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Positive developments</h2>
<p>The good news is that the city of Johannesburg’s authorities are paying attention to the commuter cycling system. I have seen this first hand as a member of the <a href="http://www.juca.org.za/">Johannesburg Urban Cyclists Association</a>, and through part of my ethnographic work for my <a href="https://cyclefriendlycities.org/2017/01/20/an-inquiry-into-changes-in-everyday-bicycling-cultures-the-case-of-johannesburg-in-conversation-with-amsterdam-beijing-and-chicago/">doctoral thesis</a>.</p>
<p>Policymakers in the city have, in public meetings, presented plans which suggest they’re moving towards a more systemic approach in supporting commuter cycling. For example, there’s a plan to increase bicycle access to serve students at the Universities of Johannesburg and the Witwatersrand. This access might come through bicycle sharing schemes, where riders can “rent” someone else’s bike. This model is very popular <a href="http://bikes.oobrien.com/">around the world</a>; users pick up a bike at one point and drop it off at their destination.</p>
<p>Another access option might be through short term rentals where a private entrepreneur leases bicycles.</p>
<p>The difficulty is that these and other ideas <em>followed</em> the bicycle lanes. They did not happen in concert with building the other elements of the commuter cycling system. This is why Johannesburg’s bicycle lanes are so poorly used.</p>
<p>All the research suggests that they will spring to fuller life when other elements of the commuting bicycling system are built and the place specific obstacles are addressed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75068/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Njogu Morgan is affiliated with the Johannesburg Urban Cyclists' Association (JUCA). </span></em></p>Bike lanes in South Africa were meant to encourage commuter cycling and ease congestion but in Johannesburg the initiative garnered more outrage than support.Njogu Morgan, Postdoctoral fellow in the history, politics and sociology of transport with a special focus on urban bicycling, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/621172016-07-08T07:07:30Z2016-07-08T07:07:30ZChaos on Southern trains a symptom of Britain’s rotten privatised railway industry<p>You can only pity the exasperated train commuter waiting for a Southern Railways service to arrive at Clapham Junction station. Passengers have suffered from <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3676147/You-stressed-poor-commuter-Fury-striking-rail-union-says-workers-pressure.html">interminable delays</a>, last-minute <a href="http://metro.co.uk/2016/07/06/ministers-urged-to-strip-southern-railway-of-its-franchise-5990968/">cancellations</a> and <a href="http://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/commuters-group-takes-out-newspaper-11575925">gross over-crowding</a> of services. So horrendous is Southern’s service that it was <a href="http://d3cez36w5wymxj.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/29162541/TF-NPRS-Spr16-pages-ALL-WEB-v4.pdf">recently voted</a> as having the worse overall levels of passenger satisfaction in Britain. </p>
<p>But now Southern believes it has found an imaginative solution to manage its appalling level of passenger service (or at least, so it has convinced itself). This privatised train operator that operates services from London to Brighton, Sussex and Kent will cancel 341 daily train journeys, representing 15% of its services. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-committees/transport/20160704-CROWTHER-Southern-revised-timetable.pdf">Southern states</a>, without any hint of irony, that these cuts will provide their “passengers [with] more certainty”. </p>
<p>Passenger misery is compounded by Govia Thameslink Railway (GTR), the parent company of Southern trains, being engaged in a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/apr/19/southern-rail-conductors-vote-strike-role-change">long-running dispute</a> with the RMT union over plans to remove conductors from its trains. GTR management has blamed the cancellations on RMT’s strike action and a shortage of staff. </p>
<h2>Woeful service</h2>
<p>Since July 2015, when Southern was incorporated into the GTR franchise, its performance in train operations has been woeful. It has continued to breach its performance targets specified in its franchise. However, rather than insisting GTR honours its agreed targets, the Department for Transport (DfT) lowered the operator’s performance standards – and even these reduced targets continue to be missed. </p>
<p>Amazingly, the DfT refuses to admit that the train operator is failing. Rather than remove GTR’s franchise, the DfT have continued to prop up the franchising system in particular – and rail privatisation in general. However, the DfT has a wider political agenda with its handling of Southern’s operational problems. Indeed, in March this year, both the DfT and GTR were uncompromising in directing their anger at the rail unions. </p>
<p>Peter Wilkinson, the DfT franchising director, was determined to impose drastic changes on the conditions of service for Southern’s employees. Wilkinson was reported as being “furious” that ASLEF, the train drivers’ union was objecting on safety grounds to take responsibility for opening and closing train doors of Southern trains – if and when conductors are removed. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.passengertransport.co.uk/2016/03/wilkinson-wants-hard-line-approach-to-aslef">Wilkinson said</a>: “…it has got to change – we have to break them [the unions]”. Indeed, management-staff relations worsened even further when off-duty travel concessions for employees who took part in industrial action were <a href="https://www.rmt.org.uk/news/a-letter-from-southern-conductors/">removed by GTR</a>. </p>
<h2>Rotten to the core</h2>
<p>But in many ways the failings of Southern and the bitter dispute with the rail unions is symptomatic of a deeper structural, operational and management malaise corroding the railway industry. Two decades ago the industry was <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Wrong-Line-Ideology-Incompetence-Britains/dp/1854109987">privatised</a> and the vertically integrated and state-owned British Rail was fragmented into more than 100 separate companies, which were then sold off.</p>
<p>Rolling stock, infrastructure, provision of train services, freight, engineering and maintenance – everything in the industry – was sold at bargain basement prices. A myriad of complex arrangements was then created as the rail businesses contracting their services with each other soon led to industry costs soaring. John Major’s government that implemented the privatisation process <a href="http://www.railwaysarchive.co.uk/docsummary.php?docID=11">believed</a> it would lead to “better value for money” for passengers and reduce industry costs. </p>
<p>But there is scant evidence that these aims were achieved. Since privatisation, state subsidies have soared. In 2014-15 terms, data from the rail regulator shows that <a href="https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/displayreport/report/html/a830de20-83bf-408d-9c22-7f3ec23999f9#">total government support</a> to the industry soared from £2.68 billion in 1994/5 to £4.79 billion in 2014/15. Passengers are now enduring fare levels rising far faster than inflation. </p>
<p>Since 2004 alone, in London and the South-East, the average fares of all ticket types have <a href="https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/displayreport/report/html/ee32b90d-1f28-4963-88b4-0dff62950b77">increased by 15.7% in real terms; and long-distance average fares for all ticket types have increased by 21.9% in real terms</a>. Let’s not forget that most fares on the network are not regulated either. The <a href="http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0015/21039/gb-rail-industry-financial-information-2014-15.pdf">rail regulator admits</a> that around 62% of passenger fare income now comes from unregulated fares that are exclusively set by what the train operators believe the market will bear. </p>
<h2>Franchise model failing</h2>
<p>But of more immediate concern to Southern’s passengers is the reluctance of the government to intervene and admit the franchising model is not delivering the goods – or indeed the passengers to their destination quickly and reliably. The government is concerned about the troubled franchising model but does not want to admit the private sector model is failing. </p>
<p>Admittedly, in 2001 and 2003, the train operator, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1371681/Connex-is-stripped-of-its-rail-franchise.html">Connex was eventually stripped</a> of its south London franchises for poor performance. But, since Connex, successive governments have generally continued to prop-up under-performing and failing franchises. The government even offers additional financial support to some train operators whose revenue falls below forecasts and has even renegotiated terms of some franchise agreements. </p>
<p>The troubled East Coast franchise has seen a succession of failed franchisees on the London to Edinburgh route. Two former operators, GNER and National Express were unable to meet their franchise premium obligations after making ludicrously high bids. </p>
<p>In 2009, after National Express walked away from its franchise, the government as the “operator of last resort”, was forced to <a href="http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/government-to-take-over-east-coast-1029729">take over the services</a>. Pointedly, when both Connex and the East Coast main line were temporarily operated by the state in 2003 and 2009, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nationalised-east-coast-rail-line-returns-209m-to-taxpayers-8866157.html">performance standards quickly improved</a>. </p>
<p>But now that the East coast main line franchise has been awarded to Virgin Trains East Coast, there are early indications of further financial turmoil. Last week, Stagecoach, which has a 90% interest in Virgin East Coast Trains indicated that <a href="http://www.stagecoach.com/%7E/media/Files/S/Stagecoach-Group/Attachments/media/press/pr2016/2016-06-29.pdf">growth in passenger revenue was only 5.2%</a> – considerably lower than necessary to successfully meet its long-term franchise obligations. But rather than scrapping the franchising model, the government has attempted to paper over the failings. </p>
<p>Overall, the current franchising model is confused, complex and generally not fit for purpose. Railway operations are the most operationally efficient and cost-effective when they are established as one integrated industry. All sectors of the industry, including the provision of train services, infrastructure and rolling stock, can then operate within the context of one, state-owned organisation. </p>
<p>But until the government recognises that rail privatisation is failing, there will be other franchised train operators that will struggle to provide a reasonable level of passenger service – little consolation for the passengers at Clapham Junction and further afield who will now be waiting for even longer for their non-existent trains.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62117/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Stittle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The government knows the system is a shambles – but refuses to admit that rail privatisation has failed.John Stittle, Senior Lecturer in Accounting, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.