tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/cop27-113638/articlesCOP27 – The Conversation2023-11-29T19:17:52Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2187062023-11-29T19:17:52Z2023-11-29T19:17:52ZWhat is a ‘just’ transition to net zero - and why is Australia struggling to get there?<p>Australia’s net-zero transition is struggling. Despite the government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-will-underwrite-risky-investments-in-renewables-heres-why-thats-a-good-idea-218427">efforts</a>, announced last week, to revive flagging investment in renewable energy, greenhouse gas emissions from existing industry are still <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/time-is-running-out-to-reach-our-emissions-target-and-our-path-needs-changing/">rising</a>. Yet under the Paris Agreement, Australia must adopt <a href="https://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/australias-paris-agreement-pathways">even more ambitious targets</a> for 2035.</p>
<p>At the same time, governments in Australia and overseas are facing <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-beat-rollout-rage-the-environment-versus-climate-battle-dividing-regional-australia-213863">rising community opposition</a> to the rollout of clean energy infrastructure needed for a net zero transition. Such opposition is being <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/robert-lambrou-alternative-for-germany-heat-pump-election-climate-change/">exploited by right-wing parties</a> for electoral gain.</p>
<p>But that pressure only underscores what the Australian government must do. To lift its climate game, it needs a mission-oriented, whole-of-government approach, built on what is known as a “<a href="https://climatepromise.undp.org/news-and-stories/what-just-transition-and-why-it-important">just transition</a>”.</p>
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<h2>The two main elements of a just transition</h2>
<p>A just transition requires both <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-human-factor-why-australias-net-zero-transition-risks-failing-unless-it-is-fair-214064">distributive justice</a> and procedural justice. Distributive justice means policies that ensure a fair distribution of the economic burdens and benefits of the climate transition, along with protections for low-income people.</p>
<p>Procedural justice includes – but goes beyond – engaging with workers directly impacted by the decline of fossil fuel production. It means going beyond engagement with stakeholders that mainly represent incumbent industries.</p>
<p>A just transition would give all of Australia’s communities a chance to not only take part in discussions about the costs and benefits of different approaches to net zero, but also to have a say in designing climate policies that directly affect them.</p>
<p>The success of the net zero transition may depend on the government’s willingness to use the expertise of local communities in finding solutions for the lands and waters they know best.</p>
<p>The Labor government <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news/net-zero-authority-gives-more-australians-a-chance-to-prosper-from-renewables">signed</a> the <a href="https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20230313132211/https://ukcop26.org/supporting-the-conditions-for-a-just-transition-internationally/">Just Transition Declaration</a> at last year’s <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/cop27">COP27 global climate summit</a> at Sharm el-Sheikh. The declaration spells out this idea in its second principle:</p>
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<p>the development of effective, nationally coherent, locally driven and delivered just transition plans within countries is dependent on effective and inclusive social dialogue.</p>
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<p>Yet the Albanese government’s net-zero strategy has no explicit commitment to a just transition. Instead, its piecemeal strategy lacks integration and avoids tackling the essential phase-out of fossil fuels.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-could-australia-actually-get-to-net-zero-heres-how-217778">How could Australia actually get to net zero? Here's how</a>
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<h2>Many government bodies – but is there a plan?</h2>
<p>In May the government announced it would establish a statutory <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/news/new-national-net-zero-authority">Net Zero Authority</a> “to ensure the workers, industries and communities that have powered Australia for generations can seize the opportunities of Australia’s net zero transformation.”</p>
<p>The authority is expected to “help investors and companies to engage with net zero transformation opportunities,” to help regions and communities attract new investment in clean energy, and to assist workers in the transition away from emissions-intensive industries.</p>
<p>To design the legislation to create the Net Zero Authority and to “immediately kick-start” its work, in July the government set up an interim body known as the <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/news/net-zero-economy-agency">Net Zero Economic Agency</a>, located in the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet.</p>
<p>The agency is chaired by former Labor climate change minister Greg Combet and supported by a ten-member <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/appointment-net-zero-economy-agency-and-advisory-board">advisory board</a>. The mining industry and mining unions are well represented, holding three seats. However, many key stakeholders, including environmental and climate NGOs and the social welfare sector, are not represented.</p>
<p>At the same time, climate minister Chris Bowen has established a <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/joint-media-release-delivering-australias-climate-and-energy-transformation">Net Zero Taskforce</a> in the Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water to advise on the 2035 emissions reduction target and the plan to reach net zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>Guided by the advice of the Climate Change Authority, the taskforce will develop <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction/net-zero">six sectoral decarbonisation plans</a> in:</p>
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<li>electricity and energy</li>
<li>industry</li>
<li>resources</li>
<li>the built environment</li>
<li>agriculture and land</li>
<li>transport.</li>
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<p>How the work of all these bodies fits together is unclear. An overarching Net Zero National Cabinet Committee, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">as suggested</a> by the Grattan Institute’s Tony Wood, could provide the necessary coordination, as long as it is guided by an integrated strategy for a net zero just transition.</p>
<p>Yet a just transition is not mentioned on government websites relating to the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction/net-zero">interim agency</a> and the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction/net-zero">taskforce</a>, other than to say that they will engage with communities, industry, First Nations, and unions, with an emphasis on affected workers in regions. There is no earmarked funding, institutional innovation, or capacity building to enable inclusive dialogues across communities and society.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<h2>Lessons in dialogue at home and overseas</h2>
<p>The Net Zero Authority is well positioned to coordinate and fund such dialogues, which are best approached from a perspective geared towards <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2022.2108365">systemic change</a>.</p>
<p>As the <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/sydney-policy-lab/">Sydney Policy Lab</a> has found in its community “listening campaign” on the climate transition in <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/sydney-policy-lab/research-and-policy/real-deal.html">Geelong</a>, the authority’s transition planning will lack support if it ignores the issues (such as secure housing and affordable living) communities most worry about.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-new-dawn-becoming-a-green-superpower-with-a-big-role-in-cutting-global-emissions-216373">Australia's new dawn: becoming a green superpower with a big role in cutting global emissions</a>
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<p>Such approaches have already met with considerable success elsewhere. In Denmark, <a href="https://www.oecd.org/environment/cc/g20-climate/collapsecontents/Just-Transition-Centre-report-just-transition.pdf">an OECD study</a> found social dialogues have been a significant factor in the country’s successful transition to wind power. It now accounts for <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/wind-power-meets-and-beats-denmarks-total-electricity-demand-two-days-in-a-row/">a major share</a> of Denmark’s energy output.</p>
<p>And in Sweden, the government’s Innovation Agency, <a href="https://rri-tools.eu/-/designing-missions-mission-oriented-innovation-in-sweden-a-practice-guide-by-vinnova#:%7E:text=SUMMARY&text=This%20book%20describes%20how%20Vinnova,developed%20by%20Vinnova%20in%20detail">Vinnova</a>, has recently developed highly collaborative processes for redesigning energy, food and other systems to achieve net zero and other goals.</p>
<p>Far from slowing the transition, a commitment to inclusive dialogue will secure it by building the social license for change, while ensuring some measure of accountability for the injustices of the fossil fuel era.</p>
<p>The more inclusive the dialogue, the better the government will be able to minimise political backlash as decarbonisation accelerates.</p>
<h2>A national net zero summit</h2>
<p>To reach these outcomes will need significant coordination between federal, state and local governments, and across government departments.</p>
<p>To jumpstart this process, and building on the success of <a href="https://nexteconomy.com.au/wp-content/uploads/TNE-CQ-Energy-Futures-Report-02_0601.pdf">regional summits</a>, a national summit should be convened to explore the perspectives and initiatives of a wide range of stakeholders. That means not just unions and workers (as important as they may be) but also climate and energy NGOs, local governments and historically marginalised communities.</p>
<p>A net zero summit would place the perspectives of policy elites and incumbent interests in dialogue with the diverse demands of citizens. It must include Indigenous communities, on whose lands much of the renewable energy infrastructure is likely to be built and critical minerals likely to be extracted.</p>
<p>Debate at the summit cannot be perfunctory. It must provide ample space for many voices. The goal is to discover, propose and fund a net zero transition in ways that don’t unduly privilege the needs of investors and companies, but instead champion the wisdom and solutions of local communities.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-juukan-gorge-how-first-nations-people-are-taking-charge-of-clean-energy-projects-on-their-land-213864">Beyond Juukan Gorge: how First Nations people are taking charge of clean energy projects on their land</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robyn Eckersley has received research funding in the past from the Australian Research Council and she currently hold a research grant with the Research Council of Norway. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erin Fitz-Henry does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s clean energy transition cannot succeed unless the government opens debate and decision-making to many more voices.Robyn Eckersley, Redmond Barry Professor of Political Science, School of Social and Political Sciences, The University of MelbourneErin Fitz-Henry, Senior Lecturer in Anthropology, University of Melbourne, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1997412023-03-01T13:53:24Z2023-03-01T13:53:24ZLook to cities, but past their mayors, for new climate solutions<p>A little over three months after the COP27 climate summit in Sharm-el-Sheikh drew to a close, the global community is <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-failed-so-why-continue-with-these-un-climate-summits-195348">no closer</a> to finding a solution to the problem of climate change. The most-attended climate change conference to date has left observers <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-03812-3">frustrated</a> and <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20221107-why-are-we-here-climate-activists-shunted-to-cop27-sidelines">disillusioned</a>. What started with the <a href="https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/october-2022/cop27-africa%E2%80%99s-cop-it-must-address-africa%E2%80%99s-climate-challenges">promise</a> of a much-needed focus on environmental justice ended with <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-will-be-remembered-as-a-failure-heres-what-went-wrong-194982">unambitious commitments</a> <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/cop27-climate-summit-missed-chance-ambition-fossil-fuels-critics-say-2022-11-28/">muffled</a> by fossil fuel producers and insufficient funds on the table.</p>
<p>Despite the disappointment, there is <a href="https://theconversation.com/6-reasons-2023-could-be-a-very-good-year-for-climate-action-197680">continued hope</a> in finding a high-level solution to an exceedingly complex problem: the preparations for COP28 in UAE are <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/12/uae-names-oil-company-chief-to-lead-uns-cop-28-climate-talks">well underway</a>. In Dubai, governments and international organisations will continue to demand grand, sweeping changes requiring monumental amounts of money and coordination.</p>
<p>But major policies such as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/green-deal-seeks-to-make-europe-the-first-climate-neutral-continent-by-2050-128887">Green New Deal</a> or UN-sanctioned treaties face a perennial struggle to find political support and are notoriously unreliable. Recent failures recall the debacle of the United States’ 2017 exit from the Paris Climate Agreement, a legally binding treaty to keep global warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The allegiance of the United States, then-president Donald Trump <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/01/politics/paris-pittsburgh-trump-nationalist-decision/index.html">claimed</a>, was “to Pittsburgh, not Paris.”</p>
<h2>From Pittsburgh to Paris</h2>
<p>In fact, what could have stood out as a cautionary tale about the unpredictability of federal commitment to climate action ended up reminding us that the real action may be off the national stage. In 2017, it took less than a week for the mayors of Pittsburgh and Paris, Bill Peduto and Anne Hidalgo, to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/07/opinion/the-mayors-of-pittsburgh-and-paris-we-have-our-own-climate-deal.html">issue a joint statement</a> reaffirming the goals of the Paris Agreement. Hundreds of cities in the United States and worldwide have since joined climate pacts such as the <a href="https://www.wearestillin.com/">“We’re Still In”</a> campaign or the <a href="https://www.globalcovenantofmayors.org/">Global Covenant of Mayors</a>, supported by philanthropists and politicians.</p>
<p>The willingness of city leaders to take a more significant role in tackling the world’s most pressing problems suggests that one way of turning the tide of climate change is to focus on <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24582453">experimentation</a> and <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/climate-governance-at-the-crossroads-9780195390087?cc=us&lang=en&">innovation</a> from the bottom up. Instead of trying to implement grand plans, cities and communities can continue to lead the way with experimentation.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512299/original/file-20230226-2316-j8qqpi.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512299/original/file-20230226-2316-j8qqpi.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512299/original/file-20230226-2316-j8qqpi.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512299/original/file-20230226-2316-j8qqpi.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512299/original/file-20230226-2316-j8qqpi.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512299/original/file-20230226-2316-j8qqpi.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512299/original/file-20230226-2316-j8qqpi.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris, discusses green cities at COP21 in December 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/cop21/23460775051">Public domain</a></span>
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<p>Do cities deserve such optimism? They do, with a caveat, suggests the example of energy-efficient construction, which I have studied over the past years as a senior research fellow at Stanford University’s <a href="http://civiclifeofcities.com/">Civic Life of Cities Lab</a> and a scholar at the University of Chicago’s <a href="https://miurban.uchicago.edu/">Mansueto Institute for Urban Innovation</a>. Green construction is an integral part of the solution to climate change. The built environment accounts for an <a href="https://architecture2030.org/why-the-building-sector/">estimated</a> 40% of carbon emissions in industrialised cities, and the green building industry has rapidly and steadily grown for two decades.</p>
<p>The technology for green buildings <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-green-trifecta-how-a-concrete-alternative-can-cut-emissions-resource-use-and-waste-192501">already exists</a>, and its widespread application by introducing reasonably high standards for new buildings and retrofitting old ones <a href="https://www.c40.org/what-we-do/scaling-up-climate-action/energy-and-buildings/">can make a real difference</a> in the fight against climate change worldwide. Investments in building energy efficiency are at an all-time high. Despite these advances, a <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/co2-emissions-buildings-and-construction-hit-new-high-leaving-sector">COP 27 status report</a> shows that increased CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from new construction has outpaced building energy efficiency. Building greener may <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-cant-afford-to-just-build-greener-we-must-build-less-170570">not be enough</a>, but green building demonstrates that cities can lead profound changes.</p>
<p>But the overall search for technical solutions does not account for one of the crucial facts of city climate action: not all cities were part of this movement toward green construction right away, and some are still lagging. Smaller, poorer, and more conservatively led cities are unlikely to take climate action. My research <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0275074020930362">suggests</a> that this is not only because of politics or a lack of resources but also because of a lack of a thriving civil society.</p>
<h2>Greening from the bottom up</h2>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/722965">new study</a> published in the <em>American Journal of Sociology</em>, I analysed the uptake of <a href="https://www.usgbc.org/leed">LEED</a> (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design), a certification of high energy efficient construction developed by the U.S. Green Building Council, among over 10,000 towns, cities, and villages in the United States. I examined which cities first turned to green construction, and how many of a city’s buildings are among the roughly <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/323383/leed-registered-projects-in-the-united-states/">60,000</a> that sought LEED certification after 15 years of construction with LEED being an available standard.</p>
<p>I show that cities with a greater presence of nonprofit organisations that are willing to take risks to pursue their social mission made the turn to green construction sooner. Cities with a more robust nonprofit sector also have more energy-efficient buildings in total. Washington, DC, for instance, is among the national leaders of green construction and features a rich population of nonprofit organisations. One of the city’s chief sustainability planners told me in 2017 that “the number of LEED buildings is a general benchmark of the impact of the built environment on climate.”</p>
<p>Why this strong association? In cities like Chicago, Cincinnati, and San Francisco, it was museums, laboratories, and foundations that paved the way to the first green buildings in the early 2000s. Office buildings, apartment complexes, and retailers followed suit once it became clear that energy-efficient buildings see savings and national recognition. The tangible link between nonprofit organisations and green buildings remains even when considering state and municipal regulatory initiatives to lift environmental standards.</p>
<p>This is not to say that city leaders can simply delegate climate initiatives to civic leaders. Local laws make a big difference – according to my analyses, about 10 to 18 additional green buildings per year after city hall passed an incentive or requirement for new buildings to be certifiably green. But legislators mostly approved such policies in cities that already see a lush landscape of green buildings constructed by project owners passionate about sustainability. States and nations, in turn, have learned from successful local regulations of green construction and <a href="https://www.usgbc.org/articles/illinois-and-california-lead-green-building-practices">raised the bar</a> for cities and construction owners behind the curve.</p>
<h2>Pushing for carbon neutrality</h2>
<p>This finding suggests that initiatives for green building did not originate in international and national policymaking, nor do they originate in the proactive policies of mayors. The key is nonprofit organisations that offer proofs of concept, engaged expert organisations (such as the <a href="https://worldgbc.org/">World Green Building Council</a> or the <a href="https://www.usdn.org/index.html">Urban Sustainability Directors Network</a>) that develop and teach protocols for action, and city administrations that make best practices visible and, when the case is clear, even mandatory.</p>
<p>Cities from New York to Buenos Aires to Copenhagen have been pushing toward <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20211115-how-cities-are-going-carbon-neutral">carbon neutrality</a>. To get there, we need to encourage the development of a healthy civil society in cities worldwide that have room to experiment and share their experiences. The implication is to support nonprofit organisations and community groups working to address climate change, even if returns to investment are not immediate. It means providing funding and resources to these organisations so that they can take risks and pursue their values.</p>
<p>High-level solutions and grand designs will not fix climate change. Conferences like COP are an essential venue for subnational governments to share best practices. Still, the bulk of the action will have to take place at the interfaces between local governments and the organised citizenry. Our next big idea for how to fight against climate change will not come from COP28’s host city Dubai, but from Montréal, Nairobi, Grenoble, or Vienna. For that to happen, our leaders have to take experimentation and innovation from the bottom up and cultivate a vibrant civil society at least as seriously as they do annual negotiations between self-interested nations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199741/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christof Brandtner ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Research shows cities are delivering on their climate pledges. More than mayors, the real force behind these local transitions are nonprofit organisations.Christof Brandtner, Assistant professor in organisational and economic sociology, EM Lyon Business SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1960712023-01-23T14:55:19Z2023-01-23T14:55:19ZClimate change: Africa has a major new carbon market initiative - what you need to know<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504200/original/file-20230112-60779-1tb7fp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Activists press for climate change financing during COP27. Mohamed Abdel Hamid/Anadolu Agency via </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/climate-activists-hold-demonstration-that-countries-provide-news-photo/1244707227?phrase=African%20climate%20change%20finance&adppopup=true">Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate finance for the African continent got a boost at the 2022 United Nations Climate Conference (COP27), with the launch of the <a href="https://climatechampions.unfccc.int/africa-carbon-markets-initiative/">African Carbon Markets Initiative</a>. This aims to make climate finance available for African countries, expand access to clean energy, and drive sustainable economic development.</p>
<p>Led by a 13-member steering committee of African leaders, chief executives and industry specialists, the initiative promises to expand the continent’s participation in voluntary carbon markets. </p>
<p>Carbon markets are trading platforms which allow individuals, firms and governments to fund projects that reduce emissions (instead of reducing their own emissions).</p>
<p><a href="https://nation.africa/kenya/news/kenya-set-to-reap-from-new-carbon-market-initiative-4014892">Kenya</a>, Malawi, Gabon, <a href="https://guardian.ng/news/nigeria-others-launch-new-africa-carbon-markets-initiative-at-cop-27/">Nigeria</a> and Togo have already indicated their intention to collaborate with the market. </p>
<p>Climate projects include reforestation and forest conservation, investments in renewable energy, <a href="https://agrilifetoday.tamu.edu/2021/05/27/is-carbon-the-crop-of-the-future/">carbon-storing agricultural practices</a> and <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/direct-air-capture">direct air capture</a>. In return for funding projects like these, investors receive carbon credits – certificates used to “offset” the emissions that they continue to produce. </p>
<p>The African initiative’s goal is to produce 300 million new carbon credits annually by 2030, comparable to the number of credits issued globally in <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/02/03/2378160/0/en/Voluntary-Carbon-Offsets-Market-Size-2022-2027-is-Projected-to-Reach-USD-700-5-Million-with-11-7-CAGR-Growth-Rate-Share-Emerging-Technologies-Key-Players-Regional-and-Global-Indust.html">voluntary carbon offset markets in 2021</a>. </p>
<p>However, there is considerable <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/09/greenpeace-international-carbon-offsetting-net-zero-pledges-climate-change-action/">scepticism</a> about whether carbon offset credits do mitigate climate change. </p>
<h2>Two important issues</h2>
<p>In assessing the effectiveness of carbon credits, one important concern is the concept of “additionality”. Emission reductions or removals are “additional” if the project or activity would not have happened without the added incentive provided by the carbon credits. For example, if a landowner is paid to not cut down trees, but had no plans to cut them down in the first place, the project does not deliver additional emissions savings. The landowner is paid for doing nothing and the buyer’s emissions are not offset. </p>
<p>Providing carbon credits to projects that would have been implemented anyway delivers zero climate mitigation, and <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/publication/do-carbon-offsets-offset-carbon/">can result global emissions that are higher than if the credits hadn’t been issued</a>. This is a serious challenge for carbon offset markets because additionality is not measurable, despite industry claims. While project managers may claim that they are unable to proceed without funding, there is no way of knowing whether these claims are true. </p>
<p>A second issue is permanence. Carbon offsets have to be permanent because carbon emissions remain in the atmosphere for hundreds of years. It is almost impossible to guarantee that emissions will be offset for this length of time. But it depends on the type of offset project. </p>
<p>There are two types of carbon offset project: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>those that reduce the amount of carbon that is emitted</p></li>
<li><p>those that remove carbon from the atmosphere. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>In the case of carbon reduction projects, overall emissions remain positive. Examples of carbon reduction credits include investments in renewable energy. Even though the supplier of the carbon credit is not generating any emissions, the buyer continues to emit, and so the overall level of emissions is positive. Carbon neutrality – net-zero emissions – cannot be achieved using carbon reduction credits.</p>
<p>There should be more funding available for carbon reduction activities in Africa, but investors should not receive carbon credits to offset their own emissions when supporting these activities. Such investments would be philanthropic – for the good of the planet, not to balance the carbon accounting books.</p>
<p>Carbon removal projects do, however, have the potential to deliver a permanent net-zero emissions outcome. Direct air capture projects, which use chemical reactions to extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store them deep underground, can meet this goal. The cost of direct air capture, however, remains very high. </p>
<p>Forest growth, a less costly type of carbon removal project, is less permanent. Landowners may commit not to cut down trees, but wildfires, disease, and other disruption events can release much of the stored carbon back into the atmosphere. There is still value to forest carbon credits, but they can’t guarantee permanence. Forest projects provide “carbon deferrals”. Additional forest growth projects remove carbon from the atmosphere for a fixed amount of time. There is value to this delay because it can <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00391-z">reduce peak warming</a> and gives society more time for the costs of decarbonising technologies to fall. While there is value to these carbon deferral projects they should not be used to generate carbon credits that are used to permanently offset the emissions produced through economic activity.</p>
<h2>Goals of the market</h2>
<p>The African Carbon Markets Initiative has bold ambitions. It will attract investments in Africa by firms, consumers and governments in countries that have historically contributed the most to climate change. Whether these investments result in any meaningful climate benefit, however, is unclear. Time will tell. </p>
<p>Existing carbon offset projects lack credibility. This doesn’t mean that carbon credits can’t be more useful in future. Being transparent about what projects actually deliver, rather than what we hope they deliver, is paramount. Given the limited resources available to mitigate climate change, we need more than good intentions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196071/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Colmer is a member of the Scientific Advisory Board for NCX (<a href="https://ncx.com/">https://ncx.com/</a>). </span></em></p>Kenya, Malawi, Gabon, Nigeria and Togo are already interested in scaling carbon credit production.Jonathan Colmer, Assistant Professor of Economics, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1976802023-01-12T19:17:59Z2023-01-12T19:17:59Z6 reasons 2023 could be a very good year for climate action<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504148/original/file-20230112-47022-ng2khx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">shutterstock</span> </figcaption></figure><p>Many people think of the annual UN climate talks as talkfests which achieve only incremental change, at best. Activist Greta Thunberg has described them as “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/28/blah-greta-thunberg-leaders-climate-crisis-co2-emissions">blah blah blah</a>” moments – grossly inadequate and too often hijacked by fossil fuel producers who would like the world to keep buying their main exports. </p>
<p>Look more closely. The world is slowly but surely shifting away from fossil fuels. When historians look back, they will likely see the 2015 Paris agreement as the key pivot point. It achieved a global consensus on climate action and set the goal for nations to decarbonise by mid-century. </p>
<p>In recent years, the enormous task of switching from fossil fuels to clean energy has been given a boost by tailwinds from the need to get off Russian gas, to the plummeting cost of clean energy. </p>
<p>Focusing on the success of global talks is no longer the only game in town. To see real progress, look to countries like China, Germany and the United States, who are moving faster to invest in clean energy technologies – not just for the world’s sake, but because it’s in their own interests to move first. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504149/original/file-20230112-43150-ozuot8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Offshore wind" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504149/original/file-20230112-43150-ozuot8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504149/original/file-20230112-43150-ozuot8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504149/original/file-20230112-43150-ozuot8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504149/original/file-20230112-43150-ozuot8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504149/original/file-20230112-43150-ozuot8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504149/original/file-20230112-43150-ozuot8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504149/original/file-20230112-43150-ozuot8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Clean energy investment is soaring.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>From Paris with love: why the Paris agreement is so vital</h2>
<p>After decades of torturous negotiations and bitter disappointment at the UN COP climate talks, the hard-won 2015 Paris agreement was a major diplomatic breakthrough. Achieved with rare consensus, it has huge legitimacy. That’s what makes it powerful. It sets the standard for all nations to follow.</p>
<p>So what did it do? It introduced a new global norm: achieving net-zero. Countries <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf">agreed</a> to keep the world’s heating “well below 2°C […] and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”. </p>
<p>To get there, the globe must achieve net zero emissions by around mid-century.
All countries need to set national targets to cut emissions and strengthen them every five years. Since 2015, well over 100 countries have pledged to achieve net zero. These countries represent <a href="https://ca1-nzt.edcdn.com/Net-Zero-Tracker/Net-Zero-Stocktake-Report-2022.pdf?v=1655074300">more than 90%</a> of the global economy. </p>
<p>The pledges made in Paris and afterwards are beginning to drive faster change. In the five years to 2020, global clean energy investment grew by 2%. Since 2020, the pace of growth has <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/record-clean-energy-spending-is-set-to-help-global-energy-investment-grow-by-8-in-2022">accelerated significantly</a> to 12% a year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) now expects global fossil fuel use <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/1fd06f38-ec60-4043-bcdd-adcba8beb006">to peak this decade</a>, before the world economy switches irreversibly to clean energy. </p>
<p>At present, the transition is not happening fast enough. But it is happening. And there’s no turning back. Here are six encouraging trends to watch in 2023.</p>
<h2>1. G7 economies will form a ‘climate club’</h2>
<p>In December, the G7 grouping of the world’s richest democracies agreed to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/g7-establishes-climate-club-support-green-transition-2022-12-12/">form a “climate club”</a>. <a href="https://ycsg.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/nordhaus-climate-clubs.pdf">Conceived by</a> Nobel Prize-winning economist William Nordhaus, the club is an arrangement where countries develop common standards for climate ambition and share benefits among club members. The club will focus first on decarbonisation of industries such as steelmaking.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-agreement-is-working-as-intended-but-weve-still-got-a-long-way-to-go-173478">The Paris Agreement is working as intended, but we’ve still got a long way to go</a>
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<h2>2. New carbon tariffs will be introduced in the EU</h2>
<p>To avoid the problem of European companies becoming less competitive with companies from nations without a carbon price, EU nations <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20221212IPR64509/deal-reached-on-new-carbon-leakage-instrument-to-raise-global-climate-ambition">agreed</a> in December to bring in carbon tariffs. </p>
<p>That means imports from countries without an adequate carbon price will be taxed. It also means European companies can’t offshore production to avoid the carbon price. </p>
<p>This is just the tip of the spear, with other rich nations like Canada looking to <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/programs/consultations/2021/border-carbon-adjustments/exploring-border-carbon-adjustments-canada.html">follow suit</a>. Over time, these tariffs will have a <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/crossing-carbon-border">ripple effect</a>, forcing countries reliant on exporting to these markets to move faster toward decarbonisation. </p>
<h2>3. The Ukraine war boosted renewables, as nations focus on energy security</h2>
<p>When Russia invaded Ukraine, Western nations slapped sanctions on Moscow and cut imports of Russian gas. Fossil fuel prices spiked. Bad news, right? Not so fast. The IEA <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/27/climate/global-clean-energy-iea.html">says</a> the war has actually supercharged clean energy investment by making clean energy <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/renewable-power-s-growth-is-being-turbocharged-as-countries-seek-to-strengthen-energy-security">a matter of security</a>. </p>
<p>In response to Putin’s invasion, major European economies <a href="https://ember-climate.org/data/data-tools/european-renewables-target-tracker/">increased renewable energy targets</a> as they moved to end reliance on Russian gas. With renewables ramping up, the EU now <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/eu-countries-meet-agree-stance-un-climate-negotiations-2022-10-24/">intends to set a stronger 2030 emissions target</a> before the COP28 climate summit later this year.</p>
<h2>4. The United States and China are competing to lead the shift to clean energy</h2>
<p>Climate action doesn’t have to rely on cooperation. Competition is an excellent driver as well. Last year, the United States passed legislation <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/20/china-clean-energy-ira-climate-00052684">investing over A$530 billion</a> in clean energy. </p>
<p>The largest climate spend in US history was also intended to compete with China, which <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/0fe16228-521a-43d9-8da6-bbf08cc9f2b4/SecuringCleanEnergyTechnologySupplyChains.pdf">dominates global production</a> of solar panels, batteries, wind turbines and electric vehicles.</p>
<h2>5. Rich nations are paying developing economies to quit coal</h2>
<p>In 2021, a grouping of rich nations offered South Africa <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/03/world/africa/south-africa-coal-renewables.html">$A12 billion</a> to shift away from its reliance on coal power. At the Bali G20 summit last year, rich nations offered Indonesia almost <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/15/climate/indonesia-coal-agreement.html">A$30 billion</a> to get off coal, while a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/g7-makes-new-15-billion-offer-vietnam-cut-coal-use-sources-2022-12-07/">similar offer</a> was made to Vietnam in December. This year all eyes will be on India, with hopes <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/g7-climate-change-energy-crisis-vietnam-and-indonesia-15b-to-drop-coal-they-said-maybe/">a similar package</a> will be offered.</p>
<h2>6. Coalitions of the willing</h2>
<p>In September, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres will host a <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/12/1131842">“no nonsense”</a> climate ambition summit, ahead of the formal COP talks in November. Why? He wants big economies to bring new commitments to cut emissions earlier – as in this decade. There will be “no room for back-sliders, greenwashers, blame-shifters or repackaging of announcements”, <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/12/1131842">he declared</a>. </p>
<p>It’s not the only parallel push. Alongside the formal UN talks, we’re seeing a flowering of groupings <a href="https://ecfr.eu/publication/well-always-have-paris-how-to-adapt-multilateral-climate-cooperation-to-new-realities/">dubbed</a> coalitions of the willing. These range from the <a href="https://poweringpastcoal.org/">Powering Past Coal Alliance</a> diplomatic alliance to the <a href="https://www.globalmethanepledge.org/">Global Methane Pledge</a> to more ambitious proposals like the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, put forward by Vanuatu and Tuvalu <a href="https://fossilfueltreaty.org/tuvalu">last year</a>.</p>
<p>So while the UN climate talks are the bedrock of global cooperation, we’re also seeing a patchwork quilt forming of extra measures. These under the radar efforts will be vital to driving ever-faster climate action.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-loss-and-damage-fund-a-historic-decision-amid-discouraging-results-195186">COP27 'loss and damage' fund: A historic decision amid discouraging results</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197680/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wesley Morgan is a Senior Researcher with the Climate Council</span></em></p>Has climate action bogged down? Hardly. Nations are redoubling their efforts in visible and less visible ways.Wesley Morgan, Research Fellow, Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1966792023-01-11T06:12:34Z2023-01-11T06:12:34ZMountain environments are key to biodiversity – but the threats to them are being ignored<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503025/original/file-20230104-19747-ka27f3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C0%2C6693%2C3764&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mountains are home to a diverse range of plant and animal species.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/mountain-peaks-torres-del-paine-patagonia-1931671382">JMP_Traveler/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Mountains are home to <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aax0149">more than 85%</a> of the world’s amphibian, bird and mammal species. Lowland slopes are rich in animal and plant species. And rugged, high-elevation environments, although lacking such biological diversity, play a key role in maintaining biodiversity in the wider mountain catchment area.</p>
<p>The variation in mountain ecosystems also allows humans to extract <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0376892918000255">multiple benefits</a> from them. These include food, building materials, water, carbon storage, agricultural pasture and nutrient cycling.</p>
<p>Yet, vulnerable to both climate change and human intervention, mountain biodiversity is increasingly under threat. <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aax0149">Roughly half</a> of the world’s <a href="https://www.conservation.org/priorities/biodiversity-hotspots">biodiversity hotspots</a> are now located in mountainous regions. These are areas of the Earth with significant levels of biodiversity but threatened to the extent that up to 70% of the original habitat has been lost. </p>
<p>And high mountain environments are <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2563">warming faster</a> than the global average. This is accelerating the rate of change in these ecosystems.</p>
<p>Despite this, mountains are largely ignored by attempts to preserve global biodiversity. </p>
<h2>The importance of mountains</h2>
<p>High mountains receive a lot of rain and experience low rates of evaporation at high elevations. They therefore contain large stores of water as snow and ice which are the foundation for biodiversity in the surrounding catchment. </p>
<p>Seasonal snow melt on Africa’s Mount Kilimanjaro feeds into the swamps of the nearby <a href="http://www.kws.go.ke/amboseli-national-park">Amboseli National Park</a>. The park is home to 420 species of bird and 50 large mammal species, including the African elephant.</p>
<p>Due to their steep elevation gradients, mountain environments also consist of many separate habitats. In temperate latitudes, such as Europe and North America, these habitats range from coniferous forests at low elevations to rugged terrain on higher ground. Habitats in tropical mountains instead range from savannas and lowland rainforests to highland <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2021.712748/full">“montane” forest</a> at an elevation of 900 metres to 3,300 metres. </p>
<p>Such habitat diversity supports a wide range of plant and animal species across relatively small spatial scales. Borneo’s lowland rainforests are home to <a href="https://www.oneearth.org/ecoregions/borneo-lowland-rainforests/#:%7E:text=Borneo%20rainforests%20are%20multi%2Dlayered,Vatica%2C%20Burseraceae%2C%20and%20Sapotaceae.">over 15,000 plant species</a> while <a href="https://wwf.panda.org/discover/knowledge_hub/where_we_work/borneo_forests/about_borneo_forests/ecosystems/montane_forests/">over 150 mammal species</a>, including orangutans and gibbons, live in Borneo’s montane forests. </p>
<p>Much of this biodiversity is also exclusive to particular mountain environments. Many mountain ecosystems are islands of suitable and isolated habitat. As a result, they are often home to species characterised by small populations and a limited range.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://ebird.org/species/taithr1">Taita thrush</a>, for example, is confined to the forests of southeast Kenya’s Taita Hills. Here, the species is surrounded by arid savanna within which it could not survive.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A Taita trush perched on a branch." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503067/original/file-20230104-14-uocmr0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503067/original/file-20230104-14-uocmr0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503067/original/file-20230104-14-uocmr0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503067/original/file-20230104-14-uocmr0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503067/original/file-20230104-14-uocmr0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=613&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503067/original/file-20230104-14-uocmr0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=613&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503067/original/file-20230104-14-uocmr0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=613&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The Taita thrush is endemic to southeast Kenya’s Taita Hills.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/taita-thrush-ebird-ethiopia-addis-ababa-2222653291">Mounir akaram halabi/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Vulnerable ecosystems</h2>
<p>Snow reflects much of the incoming solar radiation back out to space. But climate change is increasing rates of snow melt, exposing large areas of dark mountain surface to the sun. This is leading to rising solar absorption rates and significant warming. </p>
<p><a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015JD024728">Research</a> reveals that the Tibetan plateau (often called the third pole) has warmed by 0.16°C–0.36°C per decade on average since the 1950s. But this decadal rate of warming has increased to 0.5°C–0.67°C since the 1980s. </p>
<p>Increased warming in mountain environments will further amplify snow melt and reduce snow accumulation. Less snow and ice will result in a reduced availability of water downstream in the future, affecting the functioning of habitats in the mountain catchment. </p>
<p>Mountain environments are also vulnerable to human intervention. Mount Kilimanjaro’s fertile volcanic soil has encouraged human habitation of the surrounding area throughout history. But in recent decades, this has accelerated. </p>
<p>For example, agricultural land use in the Upper Pangani catchment to Kilimanjaro’s south <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1642359322000489">expanded</a> from 97,000 hectares in 1987 to over 300,000 hectares by 2017. The amount of groundwater collecting in the mountain’s aquifer decreased by 6.5% over the same period.</p>
<p>Land use change in mountain environments is leading to significant biodiversity loss. The Eastern Arc mountains of Kenya and Tanzania have lost <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-88987-6">95% of their forest cover</a> since 1500, reducing the diversity of unique flora and fauna that are found in the area. The <a href="https://www.amphibians.org/amazing-amphibians/kihansi-spray-toad/">Kihansi spray toad</a>, for example, is now extinct in the wild. </p>
<h2>Ignoring mountains</h2>
<p>Yet while it’s clear mountains are important for the ecosystems they support, recognition of these environments from governments and policymakers is insufficient. There is currently no effective international policy in place to protect the biodiversity of mountain environments and there is little cooperation between governments, environmental agencies and conservationists to deliver such a strategy.</p>
<p>Establishing a cost for the services provided by mountain ecosystems would be a step towards reducing their exploitation. </p>
<p>Management of rivers with variable stream flows can be achieved by issuing controllable permits for water use. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022169419311345?via%3Dihub">Water market reform</a> in southeastern Australia’s Murray-Darling river basin is a successful example. Landowners and businesses here are able to purchase tradeable water entitlements set to levels that do not compromise the environment. </p>
<p>Since its introduction 30 years ago, this system has improved water quality and has allowed more water to be retained in the river basin. The expanding wetlands are also proving a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780128181522000103">successful nursery habitat</a> for the native Murray cod and silver perch fish species.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An aerial shot of a river lined with trees." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503460/original/file-20230106-25-u0sftr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503460/original/file-20230106-25-u0sftr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503460/original/file-20230106-25-u0sftr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503460/original/file-20230106-25-u0sftr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503460/original/file-20230106-25-u0sftr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503460/original/file-20230106-25-u0sftr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503460/original/file-20230106-25-u0sftr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The Murray-Darling river basin in southeastern Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-murray-darling-junction-flood-594574802">Hypervision Creative/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>But schemes such as this are open to regulatory challenges and issues over who manages the resource. <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020WR028378">Unreliable and inaccurate data</a> on agricultural water and groundwater abstraction also constrains global water management. </p>
<p>Both the recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-will-be-remembered-as-a-failure-heres-what-went-wrong-194982">UN climate change summit (COP27)</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/biodiversity-treaty-un-deal-fails-to-address-the-root-causes-of-natures-destruction-196905">UN biodiversity conference (COP15)</a> ended short of ambition over protecting mountain biodiversity. A series of agreements and targets were established with little disclosure over how they will be financed and enforced. An international treaty that accepts the value of mountain ecosystems and puts measures in place to protect their environmental, economic and biological importance is urgently required.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob Marchant receives funding from a number of grant-giving organisations for this work including UKRI, the Royal Society, the European Union and SIDA.</span></em></p>Mountain environments are rich in plant and animal species, but the dual threat of human habitation and climate change means urgent action is needed to protect them.Rob Marchant, Professor of Tropical Ecology, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1955942023-01-09T06:13:19Z2023-01-09T06:13:19ZHow faith can inspire environmental action<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503045/original/file-20230104-19747-p3gob0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=57%2C24%2C5335%2C3062&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/concept-conceptual-group-green-forest-tree-1892748178">design36 / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It has become clear that meaningful progress on climate change is not going to be achieved by one person or indeed, one government. Coordinated action between governments, industry, local leaders and society is needed urgently. The recent <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/1CMA4_1CMP17_1COP27_preliminary_draft_text.pdf">COP27 decision</a> itself mentions the importance of local communities, cities, indigenous peoples and children. But strikingly absent is the role of faith or religion. </p>
<p>Roughly 84% of the global population identifies with some sort of religion, a figure expected to rise to <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2015/04/02/religious-projections-2010-2050/">87% by 2050</a>. <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11625-022-01197-w">Our research</a> shows there is potential for faith to mobilise social environmental change, yet it is usually left out of conversations about sustainability. </p>
<p>Religion can have a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21606544.2020.1796820">significant and positive influence</a> on people’s behaviour when it comes to the environment. Spiritual practices and <a href="https://fore.yale.edu/World-Religions/Christianity/Liturgy">liturgies</a> are being developed to help believers integrate environmental concerns with their spirituality. </p>
<p>Two key publications are Pope Francis’s encylical <a href="https://www.vatican.va/content/francesco/en/encyclicals/documents/papa-francesco_20150524_enciclica-laudato-si.html">Care for our Common Home</a> and Zen master Thich Nhat Hanh’s <a href="https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/441707/zen-and-the-art-of-saving-the-planet-by-thich-nhat-hanh/9781846046544">Zen and the Art of Saving the Planet</a>. Both highlight the relevance of religious ideas to environmental crises and guide people to live sustainably. </p>
<p>Faith can be a driving force behind environmentally responsible investment. The organisation <a href="https://www.faithinvest.org/">FaithInvest</a> helps religious institutions use their financial resources ethically and sustainably. Religious groups can also coordinate collective action on the climate. Ahead of COP27, faith leaders from around the world <a href="https://greenfaith.org/religions-worldwide-call-for-end-to-fossil-fuel-projects-just-transition/">published a letter</a> calling for an end to new fossil fuel projects.</p>
<p>Of course, the same influences can and have been used to obstruct action on climate change, and formal institutional commitment does not necessarily translate to personal action. Our research helps explain how mechanisms of religious belief can be used to inspire environmental action. </p>
<h2>Faith and the planet</h2>
<p>We were interested in understanding processes of personal and practical change towards sustainability among Christians in the UK. We studied responses to the Archbishop of Canterbury’s 2020 Lent book, <a href="https://spckpublishing.co.uk/saying-yes-to-life">Saying Yes to Life</a>, authored by Ruth Valerio. The book presented theological perspectives on the importance of taking care of the natural world, focusing on environmental challenges such as water scarcity, air pollution, land degradation, biodiversity loss and energy use. </p>
<p>We surveyed 133 people from a range of age groups and church backgrounds before and after engaging with the text, and conducted focus groups. We found that this intervention significantly influenced participants’ beliefs and behaviour related to the environment. </p>
<p>After engaging with the text, people had more positive attitudes towards the environment. Most reported at least a short-term increase in pro-environmental behaviours, particularly around energy use, food choices and recycling. </p>
<p>Framing environmental issues in theological terms also influenced participants’ environmental attitudes. They reported perceiving nature as sacred, feeling more connected to the natural world, and adopting a belief that humans should care for creation.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three young friends walking through a field of wheat and smiling" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503048/original/file-20230104-3468-2a8825.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503048/original/file-20230104-3468-2a8825.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503048/original/file-20230104-3468-2a8825.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503048/original/file-20230104-3468-2a8825.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503048/original/file-20230104-3468-2a8825.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503048/original/file-20230104-3468-2a8825.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503048/original/file-20230104-3468-2a8825.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Research participants said reading Ruth Valerio’s ‘Saying Yes to Life’ inspired them to feel more connected to the natural world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/happy-group-friends-hiking-together-on-583872667">Jacob Lund / Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>We identified three steps that people go through when their faith is mobilised into action. The first step is revealing, where the nature of environmental problems and pre-existing theological beliefs (such as humans having a divine right to dominate the environment) are illuminated to the individual. For our participants, this came through thoughtful reading of the text and discussion with other believers.</p>
<p>The second step is reflecting. People then consider how their own beliefs and lifestyles might need to be reconsidered according to new theological ideas or scientific information. </p>
<p>The final step depends on the degree of environmental commitment already held. For those whose lifestyles are incompatible with the new information, the step of redirecting describes a process of internal (cognitive or spiritual) and external (behavioural) change. For those already pursuing pro-environmental lifestyles, the step of reinforcing involves further strengthening these commitments.</p>
<h2>Tackling the environmental crisis</h2>
<p>Currently, many conversations about the environment are framed by economics – the <a href="https://online.hbs.edu/blog/post/what-is-the-triple-bottom-line">triple bottom line</a> (a concept urging businesses to think about profit, people and the planet), natural capital and <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/green-investing.asp">green investment</a>. Appealing to moral and spiritual worldviews could inspire people to think about environmentalism in terms of justice, sacred duty, compassion, empathy and kindness.</p>
<p>Having a community of faith that can support, reinforce and sustain environmental action is another critical function of religion. Many participants mentioned the hope and resolve that came from knowing they were part of a larger body of Christian believers working for change. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Photo of a pair of hands reaching up to the sky, cupped around the sun" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503046/original/file-20230104-104784-2q6ntg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503046/original/file-20230104-104784-2q6ntg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503046/original/file-20230104-104784-2q6ntg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503046/original/file-20230104-104784-2q6ntg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503046/original/file-20230104-104784-2q6ntg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503046/original/file-20230104-104784-2q6ntg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503046/original/file-20230104-104784-2q6ntg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Religion offers untapped potential as a source of motivation for environmental action.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/woman-hands-holding-sun-dawn-freedom-1561794796">KieferPix / Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>Appealing to faith-based worldviews has potential to bypass political divides and cultural affiliations that have stifled action. Indeed, in this research, the greatest shifts towards environmental concern were among participants who self-identified as politically conservative.</p>
<p>Faith is fundamental to many people’s outlook on the world. Our research shows that religion offers a powerful opportunity to inspire environmental action. But there is work to be done on both sides. Religious leaders could further incorporate environmental matters into their spiritual teaching and practice, and scientists and policymakers could engage more with people of faith. </p>
<p>Humanity’s ability to avert environmental catastrophe will depend on sustainability becoming embedded into every institution and cultural setting. Religion is no exception.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195594/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Ives does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The majority of the world’s population identifies with a religion – could their faith be used to save the planet?Christopher Ives, Associate Professor of Sustainability Science, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1965822023-01-04T15:07:22Z2023-01-04T15:07:22ZCOP27 in review: climate talks delivered big gains for Africa, but also several challenges<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501308/original/file-20221215-18-8sidxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C36%2C8205%2C5416&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Participants during the closing ceremony of the UN Climate Summit COP27. Photo by Christophe Gateau/picture alliance.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/november-2022-egypt-scharm-el-scheich-participants-sit-in-a-news-photo/1244916538?phrase=COP27&adppopup=true">from www,gettyimages.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Africa has contributed negligibly to the changing climate, with less than <a href="https://unfccc.int/files/press/backgrounders/application/pdf/factsheet_africa.pdf">4%</a> of global emissions. Yet it stands out disproportionately as the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">most vulnerable region</a> in the world. </p>
<p>It was therefore fitting that the UN climate change conference last year, <a href="https://www.catf.us/learn/cop27/?gclid=Cj0KCQiAkMGcBhCSARIsAIW6d0AZSsTqTjK0JdPGS-U_0947zvKyl11L3fJfOCChv2_v8zxneto3mHkaAja4EALw_wcB">COP27</a>, was hosted in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. </p>
<p>The African continent is facing <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/state-of-climate-africa-highlights-water-stress-and-hazards">some of the severest effects from climate change</a> seen in a decade. In 2022 every part of Africa was affected by extreme weather events and slow-onset processes. These ranged from <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/algeria/forest-fires-algeria-situation-report-september-3-2022">wildfires in Algeria</a> to <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-africas-unreported-extreme-weather-in-2022-and-climate-change/">catastrophic flooding</a> in South and West Africa. The Horn of Africa is witnessing the worst drought in 40 years; Mozambique has had a devastating cyclone season. There have been historic floods for a fourth consecutive year in South Sudan and Sudan. </p>
<p>These extreme events in the continent killed at least <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/news/analysis-africas-unreported-extreme-weather-2022-and-climate-change">4,000 people</a> and affected a further 19 million in 2022 alone.</p>
<p>For many, the COP27 hosted in Africa provided an excellent opportunity to draw the global community’s attention to the enormous issues the continent is already facing. And for the world to reach a consensus on how we are to avoid a climate catastrophe.</p>
<p>The conference created history when it resulted in the establishment of a loss and damage fund to aid nations particularly vulnerable to the climate crisis, an agreement on a worldwide energy transition (e.g. the establishment of a work programme on just transition), and the implementation of Africa’s green infrastructure development. In spite of this, the discussion excluded the phasing-out of fossil fuels. It also provided little indication that nations were serious about scaling up efforts to cut emissions.</p>
<p>These disappointing outcomes serve as a wake-up call for African leaders to re-assess the relevance of conference of the parties processes to the African people and take radical actions to strengthen Africa’s voice and participation in future events.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-crisis-in-africa-exposes-real-cause-of-hunger-colonial-food-systems-that-leave-people-more-vulnerable-195933">Climate crisis in Africa exposes real cause of hunger – colonial food systems that leave people more vulnerable</a>
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<h2>Notable milestones</h2>
<p>The topic of funding mechanisms for <a href="https://www.catf.us/2021/11/discourse-matters-the-net-zero-agenda-and-africas-priorities/#038;swpmtxnonce=efc08d96eb">loss and damage</a> was added to the negotiations agenda at the eleventh hour. Yet it became COP27’s most significant legacy. </p>
<p>Wealthy nations agreed to assist developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change in responding to loss and damage from extreme weather events and slow onset events. This achievement is significant for Africa: seven out of the 10 world’s <a href="https://www.afdb.org/en/cop27/focus-africa">most climate-vulnerable countries</a> are in Africa, according to the <a href="https://gain.nd.edu/our-work/country-index/rankings/">ND-Gain vulnerability index</a>.</p>
<p>Relatedly, COP27 also saw the Group of Seven (G7) and Vulnerable 20 Group of Finance Ministers (V20) launching a new insurance system to provide financial aid to vulnerable nations hit by the effects of climate change, called the <a href="https://www.bmz.de/en/news/press-releases/v20-g7-launch-global-shield-against-cllimate-risks-at-cop27-128244">Global Shield</a>. It will receive an initial €200million of funding. Early recipients of this financing include Ghana, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.</p>
<p>Another key outcome of COP27 was agreement on the need to ensure that Africa’s role in the global energy transition could not be at the expense of the region’s industrialisation goals. The region’s leaders are adopting strategies to enhance energy generation and adaptation targets while delivering on respective national environmental protection priorities, sustainable growth, and job creation.</p>
<p>COP27 also witnessed the launch of the <a href="https://african.business/2022/11/energy-resources/cop27-afdb-and-partners-launch-10bn-green-infrastructure-initiative/">Alliance for Green Infrastructure in Africa</a> by the African Development Bank, African Union and Africa50 Infrastructure Investment platform, alongside other global partners. </p>
<p>The alliance aims to generate a robust pipeline of bankable transformational projects and catalyse financing at scale for Africa’s infrastructure development.</p>
<p>Finally, the African Group of Negotiators on Climate Change played a very active role in the operationalisation of the Global Goal on Adaptation, a task due since the Paris Agreement in 2015.</p>
<h2>Disappointments</h2>
<p>The conference of parties failed on a number of fronts.</p>
<p>It failed to promote the climate action required to maintain the possibility of limiting climate change within the parameters of the Paris agreement. <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement#:%7E:text=The%20Paris%20Agreement%20is%20a,compared%20to%20pre%2Dindustrial%20levels">The Paris Agreement</a> is a legally binding international treaty on climate change to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius.</p>
<p>Secondly, despite the notable achievements made on loss and damage, there was no consensus on the size of the loss and damage fund stream, who pays – and, most importantly, who controls and manages the fund. </p>
<p>Similarly, significant collective progress is yet to be made on the phasing out of all fossil fuels. It is important to stress that loss and damage cannot be adequately addressed without tackling the root causes of the climate crisis. Continued fossil fuel addiction will worsen the unprecedented impacts of climate change and lead to the continued devastation of vulnerable countries.</p>
<p>Another weakness was that all of the agreements negotiated in Egypt are structured to be binding. But there are few mechanisms to enforce them. This raises the risk that the gathering, and others like it, translates into nothing more than good intentions.</p>
<p>The voices of local actors, who were present at COP27 side events, weren’t sufficiently incorporated into the international negotiations. This could be attributed to the existing structure of the conference, which only allows state members at the negotiation table.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/african-debt-how-to-break-unequal-relationships-in-financing-deals-195991">African debt: how to break unequal relationships in financing deals</a>
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<h2>What next?</h2>
<p>The growing frequency and persistence of climate-related disasters in Africa requires an annual average of <a href="https://www.afdb.org/en/news-and-events/afdb-head-tackle-climate-africa-needs-finance-and-more-finance-55426">US$124 billion</a> to adapt. As of today, African countries are getting roughly <a href="https://www.afdb.org/en/news-and-events/afdb-head-tackle-climate-africa-needs-finance-and-more-finance-55426">US$28 billion</a> a year.</p>
<p>Developed countries and wealthier emerging economies must contribute to adaptation funds and a transparent and effective loss and damage fund. This idea will need to be at the heart of COP28 negotiations, as money will need to be put on the table for adaptation, loss and damage, and a rapid ramp-up of renewables with clear mechanisms for mobilising finance and implementation.</p>
<p>As we head towards COP28 in Dubai in November 2023, it is essential to start the negotiation now so that all countries are prepared to get to an explicit agreement in the end.</p>
<p>The next COP must run an open and transparent process so that all countries understand what is being negotiated and trust can be repaired.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196582/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Saskia E. Werners works with United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS). She is grateful to have received research grants in support of her research on climate change adaptation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olasunkanmi Habeeb Okunola is a Visiting Scientist at the United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS). </span></em></p>African leaders must take radical actions to strengthen the continent’s voice and participation in future events.Saskia Werners, Head of Section & Academic Officer, Institute for Environment & Human Security (UNU-EHS), United Nations UniversityOlasunkanmi Habeeb Okunola, Visiting Scientist, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1968602022-12-21T20:49:19Z2022-12-21T20:49:19ZTo attain global climate and biodiversity goals, we must reclaim nature in our cities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502471/original/file-20221221-23-etpc0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C370%2C5673%2C3138&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Conserving nature in cities can help protect the biodiversity within them.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Unsplash)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The climate and biodiversity crises we have been experiencing for the past few decades are <a href="https://www.unep-wcmc.org/en/news/in-the-eye-of-the-climate-nature-storm-from-cop27-to-cop15">inseparable</a>. The scientific research presented at the back-to-back international summits on climate and biodiversity held in Sharm El-Sheikh in Egypt and in Montréal, Canada, respectively, has made this abundantly clear. </p>
<p>Addressing these crises requires real transformative action and commitments — including plans that call for the conservation of 30 per cent of global land and sea areas within the decade — have been made to <a href="https://www.cbd.int/article/cop15-cbd-press-release-final-19dec2022">halt biodiversity loss by 2030</a>. But where do we start implementing these targets?</p>
<p>At the 7th Summit for Subnational Governments and Cities, an official parallel event to the COP15 biodiversity conference, <a href="https://cbc.iclei.org/7thsummitandpavilion/">cities were brought to the forefront of conversations</a> on how to protect life on Earth. </p>
<p>As a researcher of terrestrial ecosystems, I believe that we cannot think of nature as something set aside in wildernesses, far from human activity. We need to conserve some elements of nature everywhere, including in the cities we live in.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop15s-global-biodiversity-framework-must-advance-indigenous-led-conservation-to-halt-biodiversity-loss-by-2030-195188">COP15's Global Biodiversity Framework must advance Indigenous-led conservation to halt biodiversity loss by 2030</a>
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<h2>Cities need nature</h2>
<p>Cities are <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-019-0436-6">growing rapidly</a> and covering more and more land. They are often built on the most fertile land, near rivers or coastlines. This is also where most of the biodiversity lives. It is, therefore, crucial to conserve nature in cities.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A firetruck drives through a flooded street." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502274/original/file-20221221-25-kzutvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502274/original/file-20221221-25-kzutvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502274/original/file-20221221-25-kzutvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502274/original/file-20221221-25-kzutvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502274/original/file-20221221-25-kzutvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502274/original/file-20221221-25-kzutvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502274/original/file-20221221-25-kzutvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Healthy soils and wetlands absorb rainwater and snowmelt to buffer floods.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Bruce Smith)</span></span>
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<p>To add to this, some ecosystem services that humans rely on only operate within short geographical limits. Healthy soils and wetlands absorb rainwater and snowmelt to buffer <a href="https://en.habitat-nature.com/nosprojets/la-fondation-david-suzuki">floods</a>, while trees filter <a href="https://montreal.ca/en/articles/greening-montreal-to-adapt-to-climate-change">pollutants</a> from the air and alleviate <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/montreal-warm-cool-places-interactive-1.3669639">heat waves</a>. All these services are most effective when nature is close to where people live, making it crucial for cities to preserve their nature.</p>
<p>In Canada, the richest ecosystems and the highest numbers of species are <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-biodiversity-doesnt-stop-at-the-city-limits-and-conservation-needs/">found in the south</a>, and this is also where most of the cities and farms are, leaving little land available for wilderness.</p>
<p>To protect healthy population sizes of species native to this region, we need to preserve green spaces in cities. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYnD-rPmm_M">Research</a> has shown that small protected areas can have disproportionately large effects in protecting biodiversity. </p>
<p>Contact with nature also brings tremendous physical and mental <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/features/wellness-benefits-great-outdoors">health benefits</a> as seen during the pandemic when spending time outdoors became very valuable to people suffering from stress and isolation. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2052474435747">Equitable distribution</a> of natural areas around a city is also important. Public green spaces can be especially valuable to people who do not own country cottages or backyards. </p>
<h2>Montréal leads the way</h2>
<p>Montréal, the host city of the COP15 biodiversity conference, is a perfect case in point for how cities are both succeeding at and struggling with conserving nature.</p>
<p>The City of Montréal committed to <a href="https://projetmontreal.org/nouvelles/en-route-vers-la-cop-15-la-ville-adopte-le-plan-montr%C3%A9al-territoire-de-biodiversit%C3%A9-par-la-protection-des-pollinisateurs">protecting 10 per cent</a> of its territory in November 2022. This commitment was reaffirmed at COP15, along with the launch of the <a href="https://montreal.ca/en/articles/montreal-pledge-call-cop15-launched-to-worlds-cities-39529">Montréal Pledge</a>, which called on cities around the world to protect biodiversity on their territories and provided practical steps on how to do so. So far, <a href="https://twitter.com/Val_Plante/status/1602418468976005143">47 cities</a> from all five continents have committed to the pledge.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qt0LNlF0g2E?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The Falaise St-Jacques green space boasts of 83 species of birds including some threatened species.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Meeting this target includes the creation of new parks like Montréal’s <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/montreal-park-st-jacques-falaise-escarpment-1.6278864">Falaise St-Jacques</a> escarpment and <a href="https://champdespossibles.org/">Champ des Possibles</a>. </p>
<p>The Falaise St-Jacques, long used as a <a href="https://www.realisonsmtl.ca/14902/widgets/59422/documents/40299">dumping ground</a> by businesses nearby was revitalized by a <a href="https://www.facebook.com/sauvonslafalaise/">community group</a>. They organized <a href="https://www.thesuburban.com/news/city_news/falaise-cleanup/article_86645ec9-0de2-514e-9625-d064d1a0cdd0.html">clean-ups</a>, removed hundreds of tires and other debris, <a href="https://www.urbanature.org/single-post/explore-montreal-forest-activity">built trails</a> and transformed the site into an urban oasis enjoyed by local residents, human, feathered and furry. Home to <a href="https://ebird.org/hotspot/L4654593">83 bird species</a>, including two species at risk, the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/species-risk-public-registry/cosewic-assessments-status-reports/chimney-swift-2018.html">Chimney Swift</a> and the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/species-risk-public-registry/cosewic-assessments-status-reports/wood-thrush-2012.html">Wood Thrush</a>, Falaise St-Jacques has become an important habitat for migratory birds. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://wwf.ca/biopolis-projects/champ-des-possibles-2/">Champ des Possibles</a> — a railway triage site turned industrial wasteland — was saved by a group of local residents, who planted gardens, installed beehives and held concerts, creating a de-facto park that is now <a href="https://journalmetro.com/actualites/montreal/524896/champ-des-possibles-un-plan-de-rehabilitation-dans-moins-de-deux-mois/">co-managed</a> by the community organization and the city. This area now boasts of a <a href="https://www.inaturalist.org/projects/champ-des-possibles-mile-end-montreal">wealth of biodiversity too</a>.</p>
<p>However, the island of Montréal continues to include many other unprotected green spaces, including the <a href="https://www.technoparcoiseaux.org/">Technoparc</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/resisteretfleurir/">Parc-Nature Mercier Hochelaga Maisonneuve</a>, which are threatened by industrial expansion. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="community of birdwatchers" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502442/original/file-20221221-15-c5godu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502442/original/file-20221221-15-c5godu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1097&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502442/original/file-20221221-15-c5godu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1097&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502442/original/file-20221221-15-c5godu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1097&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502442/original/file-20221221-15-c5godu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1378&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502442/original/file-20221221-15-c5godu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502442/original/file-20221221-15-c5godu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1378&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Technoparc attracts thousands of nature enthusiasts and bird watchers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Technoparc Oiseaux)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>The Technoparc, which comprises a mature forest, marshes and meadows and is a <a href="https://ebird.org/hotspot/L4886900">birding hotspot</a> in Montréal (216 birds including 14 species-at-risk), is attracting thousands of nature enthusiasts to document the ecological value of the site, to <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/TechnoparcOiseaux/permalink/1218099725213025/">tag endangered Monarch butterflies</a> and to chart the cooling effects of the meadows and forests in the surrounding <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/lite/story/1.6411883">industrial heat island</a>. </p>
<p>Despite numerous pressures exerted on the space, efforts like citizen-science documentation, gained notably through <a href="https://inaturalist.ca/projects/technoparc-oiseaux-les-milieux-humides-de-montreal-technoparc">iNaturalist observations</a> and <a href="https://inaturalist.ca/projects/c-n-c-defi-nature-urbaine-2022-montreal-quebec-canada">City Nature Challenge bioblitzes</a>, have succeeded in <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8507106/environmentalists-claim-victory-technoparc-development/">dissuading developers</a> from moving into the site so far. </p>
<p>Politicians at all levels of government — from the municipal to the provincial to the <a href="https://www.ledevoir.com/environnement/774052/steven-guilbeault-promet-de-proteger-le-champ-des-monarques">federal</a> — have now started to <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zRgZmd3iXvTGLitf81cwdnqNSSlI8qd8/view">call for the site’s protection</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://fr.davidsuzuki.org/publication-scientifique/ceinture-verte-grandeur-nature-grand-projet-mobilisateur-montreal/">Researchers</a> here have also mapped remaining green spaces around the island of Montréal and calculated the ecosystem services they can provide to help communities better plan for the future.</p>
<h2>Community efforts can go a long way</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.concordia.ca/cunews/main/stories/2022/07/18/concordia-biology-interns-make-a-difference-through-urbanature-education.html?c=/news">Researchers and students at Concordia University</a> have been working with community organizations to study and educate about biodiversity in these spaces. </p>
<p>We use citizen-science tools like <a href="https://inaturalist.ca/">iNaturalist.ca</a> to welcome people from all walks of life to the community of biodiversity scientists, help them identify the fauna and flora around them and share the collected data with scientists around the world. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People standing in a forest." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502441/original/file-20221221-12-odi8qn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502441/original/file-20221221-12-odi8qn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502441/original/file-20221221-12-odi8qn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502441/original/file-20221221-12-odi8qn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502441/original/file-20221221-12-odi8qn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502441/original/file-20221221-12-odi8qn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502441/original/file-20221221-12-odi8qn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Community members identify trees in an urban forest at an event organized by Concordia University in Montréal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Emma Despland)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Building a relationship with nature around us can help foster human engagement with the natural world and a desire to learn more and to protect, restore and steward the living ecosystems around us.</p>
<p>At the COP27 climate summit in Egypt last month, UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WCXFoDsjcQ">all hands on deck</a>” to address the climate and biodiversity crises. He said, “<a href="https://unfccc.int/news/un-secretary-general-making-peace-with-nature-is-the-defining-task-of-the-21st-century">Making peace with nature is the defining task of the 21st century. It must be the top, top priority for everyone, everywhere</a>”. </p>
<p>What better place to start than in a park or green space near our homes?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196860/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emma Despland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We cannot think of nature as something set aside in wildernesses, far from human activity. We need to conserve some elements of nature everywhere, including in the cities we live in.Emma Despland, Professor, Biology Department, Concordia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1962412022-12-19T06:04:11Z2022-12-19T06:04:11ZClimate change can be beaten – why some scientists are hopeful<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500678/original/file-20221213-3308-7f296x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Can our planet recover from climate change? Commissioning Editor, Kofoworola Belo-Osagie, asked scientists to share the reasons they believe there is hope.</em> </p>
<p><strong>Jennifer Fitchett, Associate Professor of Physical Geography, School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa</strong></p>
<p>People are starting to notice the weather and climate, and to understand climate change better than ever before. </p>
<p>It is very difficult for humans to feel the 1.1°C post-industrial warming. In Johannesburg, our diurnal temperature range is often more than 20°C. From day to day our maximum temperatures can differ by over 10°C. This makes climate change seem intangible. However, over the last few years, the public has become far more aware of the weather and climate, and the impacts of climate change are becoming more tangible, more easily observed, and more measurable by the person on the street. </p>
<p>We are noticing, for example, that <a href="https://theconversation.com/jacarandas-in-parts-of-south-africa-are-flowering-earlier-why-its-a-warning-sign-163554">jacarandas</a> are flowering earlier than they used to. We are aware that <a href="https://theconversation.com/early-warnings-for-floods-in-south-africa-engineering-for-future-climate-change-181556">floods</a> are evidence of extreme climates, and that <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-has-already-hit-southern-africa-heres-how-we-know-169062">extreme climate events</a> are affecting southern Africa more frequently than they used to. </p>
<p>The tone of public discourse is starting to shift. Sometimes this leads to single events not-quite-correctly being attributed to climate change. But it shows that people are aware and concerned about their climate future. This public awareness is a crucial first step in addressing climate change.</p>
<p>While is it very important to recognise the immense value of young climate change activists like Greta Thunberg, we often don’t notice the many students across the world who are choosing to pursue degrees in fields relating to climate change. The University of the Witwatersrand launched a short course that was offered to over 5,000 incoming first year students in 2022, and which was taught by a PhD student in climate change. This large cohort of students passionate about understanding climate science, avenues for adaptation, and innovations for mitigation is <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-you-interested-in-the-weather-and-its-impact-on-nature-heres-a-career-for-you-172815">our future</a>!</p>
<p><strong>Patrick Omeja, Senior Research Fellow, College of Agriculture and Environment, Makerere University, Uganda</strong></p>
<p>There is an urgent need for far-reaching change. Government action on climate change is slow as their hands are often tied by stringent bureaucracy, big business and the need to please all of the electorate.</p>
<p>However, I am optimistic that climate action will happen because communities, businesses and foundations around the world are seeing the need for action and doing their part.</p>
<p>For example, in Uganda, solar panels are appearing <a href="https://www.solarnow.eu/ugandan-branches/">everywhere</a>. Large companies like Coca-Cola Africa, Nile Breweries, Unilever and Nations Media Group are <a href="https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/kusi-ideas/">supporting efforts</a> <a href="https://www.ugandabreweries.com/sustainability/environment">to restore</a> natural ecosystems and putting the environment before profits. And, for example, the <a href="https://www.ivey.org/">Ivey Foundation</a> in Canada is liquidating its entire endowment to promote climate action now. The funding from these companies is supporting many innovations and solutions, from refugee communities creating forests in the deserts to innovators turning plastics into boats and building materials. They are finding ways to save energy and reduce the footprints of carbon emissions.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/african-digital-innovators-are-turning-plastic-waste-into-value-but-there-are-gaps-188014">African digital innovators are turning plastic waste into value -- but there are gaps</a>
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<p>Africa is just awash with new ideas and initiatives that are turning environmental challenges into new sources of livelihoods, and adapting to and mitigating the impacts of a changing climate. If many small groups take action, it will make a real difference.</p>
<p>Generally, if humans are the primary cause of a globally warming
climate, that means we can also be the architects of its undoing. I think people know that action needs to urgently happen, so people from all walks of life will volunteer to help. I believe human nature “overall” is good and the degraded ecosystems are resilient to recovery, given time and support.</p>
<p><strong>Desta Mebratu, Professor, Centre for Sustainability Transitions, Stellenbosch University, South Africa; Fellow, African Academy of Science</strong></p>
<p>The <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf">Paris Agreement</a> on climate change, adopted in 2015, brought a new sense of optimism in terms of addressing the challenges associated with climate change. Unfortunately, the gap between pledges and commitments made by national governments and concrete actions on climate change continued to widen in the subsequent years. This has made the possibility of limiting the planetary temperature rise to <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/F8154615FCDB3453D7C6E198B9AFD114/S2059479821000259a.pdf/ten-new-insights-in-climate-science-2021-a-horizon-scan.pdf">1.5°C more remote</a>. </p>
<p>Over the last couple of years, we have witnessed increased engagement and leadership of non-state actors, including businesses, civil societies and major groups such as youth groups and local communities. This has led to a plethora of initiatives and partnerships aimed at <a href="https://unfccc.int/climate-action/marrakech-partnership-for-global-climate-action?gclid=CjwKCAiAv9ucBhBXEiwA6N8nYKCxjYatnxDdFv0Ufqgq-l6AOjm0mfg7CSRQOicMFeztAHE32AaJ9RoC2tIQAvD_BwE">fast-tracking climate actions</a> and has created a new sense of optimism. </p>
<p>This, coupled with the increasing motivation and creativity displayed by youth groups across the world around climate action, gives me a great sense of hope about our collective future. </p>
<p>Ultimately, however, it all depends on how fast national governments take concrete climate actions. </p>
<p><strong>Yimere Abay, Research Fellow, Centre for International Environment and Resource Policy, Tufts University, United States</strong></p>
<p>The sixth assessment <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">report</a> of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, published in 2022, described a gloomy future for life on planet Earth. The report detailed the irreversible impacts of change on ecosystems, human life and biodiversity, along with disproportionate impacts across regions, sectors and communities. It called for urgent decisions by world leaders to minimise the adverse consequences. Disappointingly, the 27th Conference of Parties (<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-explained-by-experts-what-is-it-and-why-should-i-care-193727">COP27</a>) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change didn’t agree to <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-flinched-on-phasing-out-all-fossil-fuels-whats-next-for-the-fight-to-keep-them-in-the-ground-194941">phase down all fossil fuels</a>. </p>
<p>Yet there are still reasons to be hopeful for progress from COP.</p>
<p>First, the cost of wind and solar technologies is plummeting. Technologies for carbon capture, utilisation, storage and transmission are rapidly progressing to foster transformation into a low-carbon market. Africa has an opportunity to use its massive <a href="https://theconversation.com/renewable-energy-will-need-more-investment-or-africa-will-stay-dependent-on-fossil-fuels-193692">renewable energy resources</a>, harness its minerals and metal resources to develop solar photovoltaic systems and wind turbines, and address the barriers in the way of clean energy development. The turning point will be when <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-can-reduce-emissions-and-create-jobs-a-tough-task-but-doable-193870">fossil fuels</a> become less efficient and more expensive than renewables.</p>
<p>COP27 called for reforms in multilateral development banks. Reforms could address Africa’s reputation of being “riskier” for climate investment by providing guarantees. Africa needs US$2.8 trillion from 2020 to 2030, whereas the yearly climate finance flow is only US$30 billion. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-finance-for-africa-the-key-challenges-and-what-needs-to-be-done-about-them-194150">Climate finance for Africa: the key challenges and what needs to be done about them</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<hr>
<p>COP27 also introduced a new holistic approach towards food and agriculture. The aim is to boost the finance for agricultural transformation and adaptation. This is another reason to be optimistic, since about 70% of the continent’s population depends on agriculture.</p>
<p>Finally, it’s encouraging to see social movements, particularly among the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-how-young-climate-activists-are-changing-international-human-rights-law-193906">youth</a>, taking action on climate change. These social movements, including <a href="https://www.forestpeoples.org/en/node/50021">indigenous peoples’ alliances,</a> have self-organised across all regions without discrimination of faith, race, colour, age, gender, ideology, or education and have become the guardians of the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196241/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patrick Omeja works for Makerere University, Kampala. Uganda; and the research was funded from grants from the International Development Research Center, IDRC, Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Fitchett receives funding from GENUS: The DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence for Palaeoscience and the National Research Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Abay Yimere and Desta Mebratu do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>People are starting to notice the weather and climate, and to understand climate change better than ever before.Patrick Omeja, Senior Research Fellow and Field Director, Makerere University Biological Field Station, Makerere UniversityAbay Yimere, Postdoctoral Scholar in International Environment and Resource Policy, The Fletcher School, Tufts UniversityDesta Mebratu, Professor and United Nations High Level Champions (UNHLC) Lead on Waste, Stellenbosch UniversityJennifer Fitchett, Professor of Physical Geography, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1957452022-12-14T16:00:14Z2022-12-14T16:00:14Z1.5°C: where the target came from – and why we’re losing sight of its importance<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500716/original/file-20221213-16222-hs3av3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6000%2C3997&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/teenage-girl-protests-next-solar-panels-2075803471">Javier Ballester/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The US economist <a href="https://economics.yale.edu/people/william-nordhaus">William Nordhaus</a> claimed <a href="https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/why-did-ipcc-choose-2deg-c-goal-limiting-global-warming#:%7E:text=In%20the%201970s%2C%20William%20Nordhaus,any%20human%20civilization%20had%20experienced.">as early as the 1970s</a>, when scientific understanding of climate change was still taking shape, that warming of more than 2°C would “push global conditions past any point that any human civilisation had experienced”. By 1990, scientists had also <a href="https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Report-TargetsAndIndicatorsOfClimaticChange-1990.pdf">weighed in</a>: 2°C above the pre-industrial average was the point at which the risk of unpredictable and extensive damage would rapidly increase.</p>
<p>Two years later, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change <a href="https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf">(UNFCCC)</a> was established to stabilise the amount of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere at a level that would “prevent dangerous interference with the climate system”. At the first summit in Berlin in 1995, countries began negotiations for the global response to climate change which continue to this day.</p>
<p>Halting global heating at 2°C remained the horizon to which negotiators strived for nearly two decades. And yet, you’re more likely to hear about the rapidly approaching 1.5°C temperature limit nowadays. At the most recent UN summit, COP27 in Egypt, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/g20-agrees-pursue-efforts-limit-temperature-increase-15c-declaration-2022-11-16/">leaders</a> clinched an <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/cop27-reaches-breakthrough-agreement-on-new-loss-and-damage-fund-for-vulnerable-countries">agreement</a> to keep the target at 1.5°C, though they achieved little that would put the world on track to meet it. </p>
<p>So why did 1.5°C became the acceptable limit to rising temperatures? That story reveals an essential truth about climate change itself.</p>
<h2>Acceptable for who?</h2>
<p>Global temperature rise is just one measure of how the climate is <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/what-is-climate-change/measuring-a-warming-world-2/">changing</a>. Scientists also track concentrations of CO₂ in the atmosphere, sea-level rise and the intensity of heatwaves and flooding. But taking the Earth’s temperature is the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2595">simplest way</a> to predict the global consequences of warming.</p>
<p>At Copenhagen’s 2009 climate summit, the world still lacked an official temperature goal, nor had there been a full scientific assessment of what was “safe”. But a formation of island nations known as the Alliance of Small Island States <a href="https://www.aosis.org/">(AOSIS)</a> was already urging countries to draw the line at 1.5°C.</p>
<p><a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/docs/2009/awg7/eng/misc01a01.pdf?download">Scientific research</a> had started to reveal the devastation that awaited many of these countries at 2°C, with coral bleaching, coastal erosion and erratic weather expected to become more frequent and severe. Worse still, new estimates indicated that sea levels would rise faster than earlier assessments had predicted, threatening the very existence of some islands.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Wooden seaside lodges visible above ocean water." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500717/original/file-20221213-10619-ztn7x7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500717/original/file-20221213-10619-ztn7x7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500717/original/file-20221213-10619-ztn7x7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500717/original/file-20221213-10619-ztn7x7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500717/original/file-20221213-10619-ztn7x7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500717/original/file-20221213-10619-ztn7x7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500717/original/file-20221213-10619-ztn7x7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Low-lying islands in the tropics are among the most vulnerable places to climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/wooden-seaside-longhouses-on-tropical-island-187306805">Rich Carey/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Only stopping global temperature rise well below 1.5°C would head off this catastrophe, AOSIS argued. As Mia Mottley, prime minister of Barbados, would later put it: “<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-59117750">2°C is a death sentence</a>”.</p>
<p>At a summit in Cancún, Mexico in 2010, <a href="https://unfccc.int/process/conferences/the-big-picture/milestones/the-cancun-agreements">governments agreed</a> to keep global average temperature rise below 2°C while scientists reviewed the proposal for 1.5°C. The review, when published in 2015, found that the “concept, in which 2°C of warming is considered safe, is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2595">inadequate</a>”. The idea that a “safe” level of warming could be achieved was subjective: current levels were already unsafe for those on the sharpest end of climate change.</p>
<p>Although the science on the effects of 1.5°C was, at the time, less robust than for 2°C, the review concluded that limiting warming to 1.5°C would minimise risks <a href="https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/7/327/2016/">compared to a warmer world</a>.</p>
<p>Coral reefs, for example, which millions depend on for food and income, are already being damaged by climate change. At 1.5°C, few reefs will escape harm. But at 2°C, virtually all reefs throughout the tropics are thought to be at severe risk. Halting climate change at 1.5°C would slow the rate of sea-level rise by roughly 30%, preserving cultures and communities that could disappear at 2°C. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/safe-havens-for-coral-reefs-will-be-almost-non-existent-at-1-5-c-of-global-warming-new-study-176084">Safe havens for coral reefs will be almost non-existent at 1.5°C of global warming – new study</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>. </p>
<p>This insight fed into negotiations that ultimately produced the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a> in 2015, which committed countries to:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/">A scientific assessment</a> in 2018 confirmed the relative advantages of limiting warming to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3096">1.5°C</a>. In essence, the benefits of halting warming at a lower temperature are always relative to the costs of allowing warming to continue, which will continue to mount for as long as action is delayed. The only “acceptable” limit is that which humanity collectively decides. </p>
<p>Campaigning by AOSIS forced the rest of the world to acknowledge (in principle at least) that 2°C was unacceptable for many. But more recent research suggests that even 1.5°C of warming could carry <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-tipping-points-could-lock-in-unstoppable-changes-to-the-planet-how-close-are-they-191043">unforeseen risks</a>, such as the West Antarctic ice sheet collapsing at current levels of warming. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A blue iceberg with Antarctic land mass in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500718/original/file-20221213-16302-avllq2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500718/original/file-20221213-16302-avllq2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500718/original/file-20221213-16302-avllq2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500718/original/file-20221213-16302-avllq2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500718/original/file-20221213-16302-avllq2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500718/original/file-20221213-16302-avllq2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500718/original/file-20221213-16302-avllq2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Collapsing ice shelves can raise sea levels significantly.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/arctic-iceberg-south-georgia-1937464327">Dennis Stogsdill/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1.5 is still alive</h2>
<p>The world has <a href="https://www.globalwarmingindex.org/">already warmed by around 1.2°C</a>. By the time COP27 ended in late November 2022, <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/climate-target-update-tracker-2022/">only 30</a> out of nearly 200 countries had strengthened their national pledges for reducing emissions. No country has a pledge compatible with limiting warming to 1.5°C. And with temperatures increasing more than <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00957-9">0.2°C a decade</a>, some suggest that 1.5°C is already <a href="https://www.economist.com/interactive/briefing/2022/11/05/the-world-is-going-to-miss-the-totemic-1-5c-climate-target">out of reach</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/2022/15c-is-still-in-reach-to-reduce-the-worst-climate-risks-but-only-with-immediate-mitigation-action-and-shifting-finance/">latest scientific assessments</a> indicate that achieving the 1.5°C limit is still technically and economically feasible, but fossil fuels must be rapidly phased out, and CO₂ emissions halved by 2030 and reduced to net zero by mid-century. This is a huge, but not impossible, task.</p>
<p>We will, however, need a little luck on our side. Staying within 1.5°C also depends on how the climate responds to the emissions we put into the atmosphere in the meantime. Although limiting warming to 1.5°C becomes increasingly unlikely with every year of delay, giving up on it now would <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/30/giving-up-on-15c-climate-target-would-be-gift-to-carbon-boosters-says-iea-head">play into the hands</a> of those determined to preserve fossil fuel revenues indefinitely.</p>
<p>Limiting warming limits the consequences of climate change, particularly for the most vulnerable people and communities. And even if the world does pass 1.5°C, it doesn’t remove any pressure. 1.5°C became the goal because exceeding it was deemed unacceptable. The increasing likelihood – but not certainty – of passing 1.5°C demands even more urgent action to avoid every additional fraction of a degree of warming, minimising the impacts, risks and costs of climate change for everyone, everywhere.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Piers Forster receives funding from EU and UK research councils. He is a member of the UK government's Climate Change Committee and a trustee of a woodland restoration charity (the United Bank of Carbon).</span></em></p>There is no safe limit to global warming – there is only what people deem to be acceptable damage.Piers Forster, Professor of Physical Climate Change; Director of the Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1961072022-12-12T22:46:13Z2022-12-12T22:46:13ZDigital technologies for biodiversity protection and climate action: Solution or COP out?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500546/original/file-20221212-14-u7oobq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=30%2C231%2C6679%2C4235&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Digital technologies like drones are being heavily promoted to address the threats of climate change and biodiversity loss.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Unsplash)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With biodiversity declining at <a href="https://www.conservation.org/blog/what-is-the-biodiversity-cop-and-why-does-it-matter?gclid=CjwKCAiAv9ucBhBXEiwA6N8nYOXWKyIVhEMlt9CC7LpJ2mmrYTFe_qpJqb8t3wh4y-idxhTTKsafUBoCqN0QAvD_BwE#">unprecedented rates</a> and less than a decade remaining to avert the worst effects of climate change, world leaders and policymakers are on the hunt for new and innovative solutions. In the halls and meeting rooms of global COP conferences, digital technologies have been heavily promoted to <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/11/10-key-takeaways-cop27-nature-critical-role/">address these interrelated threats to our ecosystem</a>. </p>
<p>At the recent COP27 climate conference in Egypt, <a href="https://www.forestdatapartnership.org/">the Forest Data Partnership</a> — a global consortium co-ordinated by the World Resources Institute (WRI) in partnership with the U.S. Department of State, NASA, Google and Unilever — <a href="https://www.wri.org/update/release-forest-data-partnership-calls-global-alliance-unlock-value-land-use-data-protect-and">called for a “global alliance</a> to unlock the value of land use data to protect and restore nature.” The WRI promoted its <a href="https://www.wri.org/initiatives/land-carbon-lab">Land and Carbon Lab</a> to measure carbon stocks associated with land use.</p>
<p>Nature4Climate — a coalition of 20 environmental organizations — revealed a new <a href="https://www.naturebase.org">online platform</a> to help implement natural climate solutions. They also exhibited a <a href="https://nature4climate.org/the-market-for-nature-tech-is-necessary-emergent-and-dynamic/">report</a> on the “nature tech market.” At the COP15 biodiversity conference in Montréal, <a href="https://www.naturemetrics.co.uk/">NatureMetrics</a>, a provider of nature intelligence technology, <a href="https://sustainablebrands.com/read/new-metrics/cop15-environmental-dna-technology-enables-world-first-nature-performance-monitoring-service">launched a new digital dashboard</a> to enable standardized measurements of the health of ecosystems. </p>
<p>Many, however, see such efforts as a <a href="https://www.etcgroup.org/content/un-convention-biodiversity-losing-precautionary-plot">dangerous push</a> to get untried and untested corporate technologies accepted as “nature-positive solutions” in the Convention on Biological Diversity and climate negotiations. </p>
<p>As researchers examining the role of technologies in biodiversity monitoring and protected area management, we find that these digital technologies have the potential to yield positive results, if co-developed and used ethically with Indigenous Peoples.</p>
<h2>Conservation and Big Tech</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.07.011">influence of the tech industry in environmental governance</a> has grown considerably over the past decade. Tech giants like Microsoft, <a href="https://www.ibm.com/products/environmental-intelligence-suite">IBM</a>, <a href="https://fortune.com/2022/09/12/google-has-one-of-big-techs-most-aggressive-sustainability-plans-heres-its-3-step-playbook-for-helping-the-planet/">Google</a> and <a href="https://sustainability.aboutamazon.co.uk/environment">Amazon</a>, as well as philanthropic counterparts like the <a href="https://www.bezosearthfund.org/">Bezos Earth Fund</a>, have invested significantly in technologies to address global environmental issues. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500117/original/file-20221209-41824-ffnxf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A graphical representation of a person using digital tools for green solutions." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500117/original/file-20221209-41824-ffnxf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500117/original/file-20221209-41824-ffnxf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500117/original/file-20221209-41824-ffnxf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500117/original/file-20221209-41824-ffnxf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500117/original/file-20221209-41824-ffnxf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500117/original/file-20221209-41824-ffnxf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500117/original/file-20221209-41824-ffnxf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Today, technologies are transforming the world’s forests and oceans into new frontiers of digital commoditization and investment.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590332222000896">(One Earth/Wageningen University & Research)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Microsoft’s $50 million “<a href="https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/ai/ai-for-earth">AI for Earth</a>” program, for instance, aims to “transform the way we monitor, model and ultimately manage Earth’s natural resources through grants, technology and access to data.” Such programs, including <a href="https://www.forestdatapartnership.org/">the Forest Data Partnership</a>, have helped establish partnerships involving philanthropic, academic, non-governmental, public and private sector institutions.</p>
<p>They not only transform conservation, but natural environments as well. The <a href="https://sdg.iisd.org/commentary/guest-articles/how-digital-innovation-has-accelerated-monitoring-of-the-worlds-forests/">deployment of digital technologies</a> throughout natural environments, from satellites and aerial sensors to drones, camera traps and wearable sensors, has transformed the <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/the-internet-of-wild-things-technology-and-the-battle-against-biodiversity-loss-and-climate-change/">Internet of Things</a> into an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2053951720904871">internet of trees</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esg.2022.100141">oceans</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/25148486211061704">wildlife</a>. </p>
<p>In our new economic context, in which <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2017/05/06/the-worlds-most-valuable-resource-is-no-longer-oil-but-data">data is the new oil</a>, such technologies also transform the world’s forests and oceans into <a href="https://www.greenbiz.com/article/blue-carbon-will-be-next-frontier-carbon-crediting">new frontiers of digital commoditization and investment</a>. </p>
<h2>Climate action or corporate greenwashing?</h2>
<p>Critics warn, however, that these techno-centric solutions are simply <a href="https://theconversation.com/greenwashing-corporate-tree-planting-generates-goodwill-but-may-sometimes-harm-the-planet-103457">corporate greenwashing</a> and that they actually <a href="https://gizmodo.com/how-google-microsoft-and-big-tech-are-automating-the-1832790799">intensify biodiversity loss and climate change</a>. While Microsoft, Amazon and Google tout the use of their technologies for environmental good, they continue to <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org/usa/reports/oil-in-the-cloud/">sell cloud computing and artificial intelligence services to oil companies</a> around the world. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A Microsoft building" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500514/original/file-20221212-117891-p3m533.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500514/original/file-20221212-117891-p3m533.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500514/original/file-20221212-117891-p3m533.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500514/original/file-20221212-117891-p3m533.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500514/original/file-20221212-117891-p3m533.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500514/original/file-20221212-117891-p3m533.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500514/original/file-20221212-117891-p3m533.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Research on Microsoft’s AI For Earth program shows that its cloud computing and AI products help oil companies better extract and distribute oil.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Andy Wong)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Research on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2022.01.016">Microsoft’s “AI For Earth” program</a> shows that it greenwashes Microsoft’s corporate reputation, while its cloud computing and <a href="https://news.microsoft.com/en-xm/2018/11/12/microsoft-demonstrates-the-power-of-ai-and-cloud-to-oil-and-gas-players-at-adipec-2018/">AI products are promoted</a> to help oil companies better extract and distribute oil. Its vast data centres also use <a href="https://culturemachine.net/vol-18-the-nature-of-data-centers/managing-carbon/">significant amounts of electricity</a>, much of which comes from fossil fuels. </p>
<p>While Microsoft does attempt to offset its emissions by investing in <a href="https://www.levernews.com/climate-progress-is-on-fire/">California’s Klamath East project, a stretch of protected woodland managed by a forest products company</a>, its carbon offsets have literally gone up in smoke in recent wildfires. </p>
<p>Similar <a href="https://www.ethicalconsumer.org/technology/amazon-microsoft-greenwashing-technology-industry">claims have been made about Amazon</a> and its environmental programs. While Amazon Web Services advertises its <a href="https://aws.amazon.com/earth/">support for conservation and climate action</a>, the company continues to drive greenhouse gas emissions by offering its cloud computing and AI services to the <a href="https://aws.amazon.com/energy/">oil and gas sector</a>. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org/international/press-release/56548/greenpeace-slams-new-cop27-partnership-forest-protection/">critique of the Forest & Climate Leaders’ Partnership</a>, the environmental organization Greenpeace argued that it is “nothing but a green light for eight more years of forest destruction, with little respect for the rights of Indigenous Peoples and local communities.” It also argued that this allows polluters to do more business as usual through “carbon trickery instead of advancing true climate action.”</p>
<h2>Technology for a just and sustainable future</h2>
<p>At COP15 there has been a critical parallel movement to support <a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/cop15-indigenous-led-conservation/">Indigenous-led conservation</a> to meet global biodiversity and climate change commitments. </p>
<p>Making up just five per cent of the global population, Indigenous Peoples steward <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2020/01/indigenous-lands-hold-36-or-more-of-remaining-intact-forest-landscapes/">36 per cent of our remaining intact forests</a> and <a href="https://www.statista.com/chart/27805/indigenous-communities-protect-biodiversity/">80 per cent of the world’s biodiversity</a>. </p>
<p>Digital technologies, however, often <a href="https://doi.org/10.4103/cs.cs_16_83">marginalize local and Indigenous communities in conservation</a> by supporting a shift toward more <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0309132517740220">militarized and coercive approaches to conservation</a> that position communities as targets of surveillance and policing.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="hands holding a phone" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500439/original/file-20221212-109404-obdnw1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500439/original/file-20221212-109404-obdnw1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500439/original/file-20221212-109404-obdnw1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500439/original/file-20221212-109404-obdnw1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500439/original/file-20221212-109404-obdnw1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=679&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500439/original/file-20221212-109404-obdnw1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=679&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500439/original/file-20221212-109404-obdnw1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=679&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Can these digital technologies truly support community and Indigenous-led conservation?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(James Stinson)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Given these concerns, it is important to think critically about the role of digital technologies in global biodiversity and climate frameworks. Can <a href="https://thetenurefacility.org/where-technology-meets-land-rights-utilising-technologies-to-support-land-governance/">these digital technologies truly support Indigenous-led conservation</a>, climate action and reconciliation with the Earth?</p>
<p>The first step to this would include <a href="https://www.etcgroup.org/content/un-convention-biodiversity-losing-precautionary-plot">monitoring new technologies in the new biodiversity and climate frameworks</a>. Digital tools must not be used to maintain the status quo by <a href="https://www.ran.org/press-releases/a-new-forest-data-partnership-for-who/">securing carbon credits</a> and corporate profits. Instead, they need to be <a href="https://ecos.csiro.au/healthy-country-ai/">co-developed ethically and used with Indigenous Peoples</a> and land defenders to protect their rights to — and control over — the environments they cultivate, care for and protect.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196107/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Stinson receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC). He is Principle Investigator of the SSHRC-funded project "Smart Conservation and the Production of Nature 3.0 in Belize." </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lee Mcloughlin receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC). He is a research assistant for the SSHRC-funded project "Smart Conservation and the Production of Nature 3.0 in Belize".</span></em></p>Digital technologies have the potential to yield positive results, if co-developed and used ethically with Indigenous communities.James Stinson, Postdoctoral Fellow, Dahdaleh Institute of Global Health Research and Faculty of Education, York University, CanadaLee Mcloughlin, PhD student Global Sociocultural Studies, Florida International UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1953472022-12-07T22:40:02Z2022-12-07T22:40:02ZCOP15 biodiversity summit in Montréal: Canada failed to meet its 2020 conservation targets. Will 2030 be any better?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499647/original/file-20221207-12015-1ktm1o.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C62%2C2977%2C1922&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Fulford Harbour sea garden clam bed was built by First Nations in the Salish Sea near Salt Spring Island, B.C. Despite growing recognition that lands managed by Indigenous Peoples are, on average, more biodiverse, biodiversity conservation has typically marginalized Indigenous Peoples.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.cbd.int/meetings/COP-15">15th Conference of the Parties (COP15</a>) of the United Nations <a href="https://www.cbd.int/convention/">Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)</a> is underway in Montréal. Like the COP27 climate conference held in Egypt last month, the goal of this conference is to get member nations to make agreements that can help reverse or slow down the damage being done to our planet.</p>
<p>One of the largest challenges in Canada and across the world is that <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781315439488-1/introduction-sharlene-mollett-thembela-kepe">biodiversity conservation has typically marginalized Indigenous Peoples</a> and their knowledge systems. And yet, there is growing recognition that <a href="https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03341800/document">lands managed by Indigenous Peoples are, on average, more biodiverse</a>. </p>
<p>It is, therefore, vital that conservation practices are planned and conducted in collaboration with Indigenous Peoples. <a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/cop15-indigenous-led-conservation/">The targets set at COP15 cannot be met without Indigenous leadership</a>. </p>
<p>In Canada, efforts to meet the 2020 targets intentionally <a href="https://www.conservation2020canada.ca/ipcas">engaged both Indigenous and Western governance frameworks</a> in national conservation policy formulation for the first time. But was that enough? As we move on to setting new conservation goals for the next decade, we need to evaluate what worked and what didn’t in our efforts so far.</p>
<h2>Canada embraces the 2020 Aichi targets</h2>
<p>The Conference of the Parties of the CBD held in Aichi Prefecture, Japan, in 2010, set 20 <a href="https://www.cbd.int/sp/targets/">targets</a> for the conservation of the world’s biodiversity. These targets aimed at addressing the underlying causes of biodiversity loss by “mainstreaming biodiversity conservation across government and society.” </p>
<p>This meant <a href="https://trondheimconference.org/assets/Files/TC9%20Background%20documents/Mainstreaming-reference-document-SCBD-TRONDHEIM-CONF.pdf">integrating actions or policies related to biodiversity</a> into broader
development policies such as those aimed at poverty reduction or tackling climate change.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1189859754648252416"}"></div></p>
<p>As a member of the COP, Canada adopted these 20 targets, but <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/land8010010">focused on target 11</a>, which states that at least 17 per cent of terrestrial and inland water areas and 10 per cent of coastal and marine areas will be conserved in protected areas by 2020. </p>
<p>The Aichi target 11 became Canada’s primary biodiversity target (target 1) and was adopted as a policy by the Canadian Parliament. A policy process called the <a href="https://www.conservation2020canada.ca/the-pathway">Pathway to Canada Target 1</a> — or the Pathway process — was put in place in 2017 to help Canada meet its 2020 biodiversity targets. </p>
<p>To achieve these targets, the government of Canada engaged several state and non-state institutions. The coastal and marine target of 10 per cent conserved areas was in the custody of the federal <a href="https://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/oceans/conservation/plan/index-eng.html">Department of Fisheries and Oceans</a> (DFO). This target was met by the DFO, arguably because marine areas are void of human habitation and consequently have less political and social resistance to conservation. </p>
<p>The achievement of the 17 per cent of terrestrial areas and inland water target was to be managed by <a href="https://parks.canada.ca/agence-agency/bib-lib/rapports-reports/core-2018/min">Parks Canada Agency</a> and the <a href="https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/40c2fab1-e757-49f1-b403-e42c0239158a/resource/d50a12fa-15b3-4471-a6be-6b41bc6361d1/download/aep-annual-report-2017-2018.pdf">government of Alberta</a>. This target was, however, not met. Only <a href="https://cpawsmb.org/news-release-manitoba-is-failing-to-safeguard-nature/">13.8 per cent of terrestrial and inland waters was protected</a> by the end of 2020.</p>
<p>The Pathway process engaged a wide diversity of conservation and industry stakeholders and Indigenous People to meet this goal. The <a href="https://www.conservation2020canada.ca/who-we-are#ICE">Indigenous Circle of Experts</a> showed how Indigenous People could help Canada meet its targets, by playing the primary role in protecting and conserving ecosystems through Indigenous laws, governance and knowledge systems, while working towards nation-to-nation reconciliation. </p>
<p>But this ended in <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/57e007452e69cf9a7af0a033/t/5ab94aca6d2a7338ecb1d05e/1522092766605/PA234-ICE_Report_2018_Mar_22_web.pdf">March 2018 when the Circle’s report — We Rise Together —</a> was transferred to the Ministry of Environment.</p>
<h2>The Pathway to reconciliation</h2>
<p>According to some members of the <a href="https://www.conservation2020canada.ca/who-we-are#NSC">National Steering Committee</a> of the Pathway and the <a href="https://www.conservation2020canada.ca/who-we-are#NAP">National Advisory Panel</a>, the intent of the Pathway was more than just carving out protected areas to meet Canada’s international commitment on conservation. It was also about relationship building.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/57e007452e69cf9a7af0a033/t/626014ba9d13361f3f41bb15/1650463944847/Compressed_3750+-+Gov+of+Canada+-++The+Pathway+Journey+-+FINAL+-+WEB.pdf">Pathway</a> was an opportunity to advance nation-to-nation reconciliation and to reconcile Canadians with the land. The Indigenous Circle of Experts made great progress in relationship building and in engaging members of the federal, provincial and territorial governments. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/zvw5djVRjE0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The Indigenous Circle of Experts advised the government on how Indigenous Peoples could help Canada meet its targets while working towards nation-to-nation reconciliation.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Its <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/57e007452e69cf9a7af0a033/t/5ab94aca6d2a7338ecb1d05e/1522092766605/PA234-ICE_Report_2018_Mar_22_web.pdf">2018 report</a> laid out a path for greater reconciliation in the conservation sector that focused on the creation and management of <a href="https://conservation-reconciliation.ca/about-ipcas">Indigenous Protected and Conserved Areas (IPCAs)</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://conservation-reconciliation.ca/">federal government remains enthusiastic about supporting IPCAs and Indigenous-led conservation</a> as seen in its support for the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-funding/indigenous-guardians.html">Indigenous guardians</a> program and the recent allocation of <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2022/09/up-to-40-million-in-indigenous-led-area-based-conservation-funding-now-available.html">$40 million for Indigenous-led conservation</a>.</p>
<p>But some <a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/newsletter-ontario-indigenous-conservation-resistance/">provinces, like Ontario</a>, are resistant to IPCAs as they don’t recognize Indigenous jurisdictions under the Crown law. These tensions have been exacerbated during the implementation process which began after the submission of the reports in March 2018 when the implementing agency of the Pathway switched from Parks Canada to Environment and Climate Change Canada. This disrupted some of the relationships that made the pathway a success, including no longer seeking advice from the Indigenous Circle of Experts.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the growing numbers of IPCAs can be presented as an indication of success of the Pathway. </p>
<h2>New targets for the new decade</h2>
<p>Canada needs to build on the work of the Pathway initiative to prepare for better outcomes of the conservation of biodiversity targets by 2030. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499510/original/file-20221207-12015-7qtkic.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A group of protestors" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499510/original/file-20221207-12015-7qtkic.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499510/original/file-20221207-12015-7qtkic.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499510/original/file-20221207-12015-7qtkic.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499510/original/file-20221207-12015-7qtkic.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499510/original/file-20221207-12015-7qtkic.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499510/original/file-20221207-12015-7qtkic.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499510/original/file-20221207-12015-7qtkic.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Protesters urge governments to stop invading Indigenous land in the process of biodiversity conservation during the opening ceremony of the COP15 UN conference on biodiversity in Montréal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Paul Chiasson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Canadian government and various national organizations including the Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society (CPAWS) have been championing the <a href="https://www.hacfornatureandpeople.org/home">30 per cent target</a>, which urges nations to commit to protecting 30 per cent of the world’s land and sea by 2030, including key ecosystems around the world.</p>
<p>To do so, Canada needs to continue to support Indigenous-led conservation to meet its new targets. The Dec. 7 announcement <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/indigenous-conservation-protetion-cree-inuit-firstnations-1.6677350">of the allocation of an $800 million fund for Indigenous-led conservation initiatives is a great start</a> toward this goal. But viable conservation-based economies are critical. Money alone isn’t the answer. </p>
<p>We need to embrace the facets of the Pathway that went right — including the support of and collaboration with Indigenous experts — and focus on relationships to help steer us to success by 2030.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195347/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robin J. Roth receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Council of Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emmanuel Tamufor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As we set conservation goals for the next decade, we need to evaluate what worked and what didn’t in our efforts to meet the 2020 biodiversity conservation targets.Emmanuel Tamufor, PhD Candidate, Department of Geography, Environment and Geomatics / Guelph Institute of Development Studies, University of GuelphRobin J. Roth, Professor, Department of Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of GuelphLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1954382022-12-01T19:03:13Z2022-12-01T19:03:13Z54% of projects extracting clean energy minerals overlap with Indigenous lands, research reveals<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498385/original/file-20221201-26-isootg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C0%2C2000%2C1446&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An Indigenous person in Indonesia protests against a copper and gold mine.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Charles Dharapak/AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Vast <a href="https://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/961711588875536384/Minerals-for-Climate-Action-The-Mineral-Intensity-of-the-Clean-Energy-Transition.pdf">quantities</a> of minerals are needed to accelerate the transition to a clean energy future. Minerals and metals are essential for wind turbines, solar panels, and batteries for electric vehicles. But <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/indigenouspeoples">Indigenous peoples</a> have <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1xH_cDO-_Of0Keykih3CrU_GsruKyPILVd9dt5KqUcOE/edit">raised concerns</a> about more mining on their lands and territories.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-022-00994-6">new study</a> led by authors John Owen and Deanna Kemp, published today, supports First Nations peoples’ concerns. We identified 5,097 mining projects involving about 30 minerals needed in the energy transition. Some 54% are located on or near Indigenous peoples’ lands.</p>
<p>These lands are <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-018-0100-6">valuable</a> ecologically and culturally. Their soils, and land cover such as forests, store carbon which helps to regulate the planet’s climate. Typically, the lands are also intrinsic to Indigenous peoples’ identity and way of life.</p>
<p>Energy transition minerals are essential to tackling climate change. But First Nations people must have a genuine say in where and how they’re extracted.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Indigenous people perform ceremonial dance" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498423/original/file-20221201-20-90rw3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498423/original/file-20221201-20-90rw3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498423/original/file-20221201-20-90rw3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498423/original/file-20221201-20-90rw3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498423/original/file-20221201-20-90rw3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498423/original/file-20221201-20-90rw3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498423/original/file-20221201-20-90rw3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Traditional lands are intrinsic to Indigenous peoples’ identity and way of life. Pictured: a ceremonial dance in northeast Arnhem Land earlier this year.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Aaron Bunch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>When minerals and communities collide</h2>
<p>The International Energy Agency <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions/executive-summary">projects</a> lithium demand for electric vehicle batteries will grow 40 times on current levels by 2040. Our study found 85% of the world’s lithium reserves and resources overlap with Indigenous peoples’ lands.</p>
<p>Demand for nickel and manganese is projected to grow 20-25 times. We found 75% of manganese and 57% of nickel reserves and resources also overlap with these lands.</p>
<p>Copper and iron ore are essential for power generation, as well as its transport, storage and use. Some <a href="https://scholarlypublications.universiteitleiden.nl/access/item%3A3192744/download">scenarios</a> predict an increase in copper demand of more than 250% by 2050. We found 66% of the world’s copper and 44% of iron reserves and resources overlap with Indigenous peoples lands globally.</p>
<p>Overall, across the 5,097 projects in our study, 54% are on or near Indigenous peoples’ lands. And almost one-third are on or near lands over which Indigenous peoples are recognised as having control or influence for conservation purposes.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two men stands near mine" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498388/original/file-20221201-24-92bb9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498388/original/file-20221201-24-92bb9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498388/original/file-20221201-24-92bb9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498388/original/file-20221201-24-92bb9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498388/original/file-20221201-24-92bb9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498388/original/file-20221201-24-92bb9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498388/original/file-20221201-24-92bb9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many mines in the study were on or near Indigenous lands. Pictured: local officials inspect a copper mine in Pakistan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Naseem James/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Free, prior and informed consent</h2>
<p>Last year, Indigenous groups and from around the world signed a <a href="https://earthworks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Declaration-on-Mining-and-the-Energy-Transition-2022.pdf">declaration</a> calling on climate negotiators at the <a href="https://ukcop26.org/">COP26</a> United Nations Climate Change Conference to commit to sourcing transition minerals more responsibly.</p>
<p>They also called on governments and corporations to obtain the “<a href="https://www.oxfam.org.au/what-we-do/economic-inequality/mining/free-prior-and-informed-consent/">free, prior and informed consent</a>” of Indigenous peoples in decisions that affect them. </p>
<p>This type of consent is <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/indigenouspeoples/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2018/11/UNDRIP_E_web.pdf">enshrined</a> in the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. It means Indigenous peoples should be able to accept or reject mining on their traditional lands, and to negotiate conditions such as protecting natural and cultural heritage. </p>
<p>Mining has hugely complex repercussions <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18661-9">and can cause</a> severe harms to societies, the environment and human rights. Consultation and consent processes take time. Companies and governments seeking to extract resources in haste are likely to fail to <a href="https://www.iied.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/migrate/16047IIED.pdf?">meaningfully engage</a> with communities. </p>
<p>If new mining projects are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629622001694">fast-tracked</a>, there is a huge risk of corners being cut. Without proper consultation and legal protections, the future supply of transition minerals could put Indigenous peoples’ lands at greater risk.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/critical-minerals-are-vital-for-renewable-energy-we-must-learn-to-mine-them-responsibly-131547">Critical minerals are vital for renewable energy. We must learn to mine them responsibly</a>
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</em>
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<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="two woman in traditional attire at protest" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498390/original/file-20221201-14-r0ed46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498390/original/file-20221201-14-r0ed46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498390/original/file-20221201-14-r0ed46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498390/original/file-20221201-14-r0ed46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498390/original/file-20221201-14-r0ed46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498390/original/file-20221201-14-r0ed46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498390/original/file-20221201-14-r0ed46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Indigenous peoples should be able to accept or reject mining on their traditional lands.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andre Penner/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Weak laws must be strengthened</h2>
<p>Australia has a shocking track record in protecting Indigenous heritage and obtaining consent. </p>
<p>In May 2020, Rio Tinto <a href="https://antar.org.au/issues/cultural-heritage/the-destruction-of-juukan-gorge/">destroyed</a> 46,000 year old Aboriginal rock shelters to mine iron ore, against the wishes of traditional owners, the Puutu Kunti Kurrama and Pinikura peoples.</p>
<p>The traditional owners <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/nitv/article/traditional-owners-lodge-submission-to-inquiry-into-juukan-gorge-destruction/bc02jn2ag">said</a> the destruction was a tragedy for their people, all Australians and humanity. Alarmingly, the destruction was legal.</p>
<p>Last week, responding to a federal parliamentary inquiry into the Juukan Gorge incident, Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek said the destruction of the rock shelters was “<a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/mining/government-to-respond-to-juukan-gorge-inquiry-implement-new-legislation/news-story/23c13d8b56a52d86cf66bfb4abc56195">completely wrong</a>”. She acknowledged the massive power imbalance when traditional owners negotiated with mining companies, and the lack of resources they can draw on.</p>
<p>Plibersek said legal reform is urgently needed to stop such destruction happening again. In this vein, the Commonwealth has signed an <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/partnership-agreement-with-first-nations-heritage-protection-alliance.pdf">agreement</a> with the <a href="https://culturalheritage.org.au/">First Nations Heritage Protection Alliance</a> to co-design new cultural heritage laws. </p>
<p>Initiatives such as <a href="https://culturalheritage.org.au/dhawura-ngilan-business-investor-initiative/">Dhawura Ngilan</a> (Remembering Country) set a collective vision for best-practice heritage standards and legislation. Companies and investors should apply these protocols while our laws catch up.</p>
<p>In the meantime, other heritage sites in Western Australia are <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-28/rio-tinto-remedy-agreement-signed-after-juukan-gorge-destruction/101705944">threatened</a> by existing deveopment approvals. And the new Aboriginal Cultural <a href="https://www.wa.gov.au/government/document-collections/aboriginal-cultural-heritage-act-2021">Act</a> still vests the minister with <a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/new-wa-aboriginal-heritage-act-leaves-final-say-on-cultural-site-protection-with-minister-20211116-p599i0.html">ultimate power</a> to decide the fate of Aboriginal heritage. </p>
<p>Indigenous <a href="https://nit.com.au/30-07-2021/2204/proposed-heritage-law-an-abuse-of-human-rights-says-kado-muir">leaders</a> remain deeply concerned that tragic incidents such as Juukan Gorge could happen again.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/was-new-aboriginal-heritage-act-keeps-mining-interests-ahead-of-the-culture-and-wishes-of-traditional-owners-173239">WA's new Aboriginal Heritage Act keeps mining interests ahead of the culture and wishes of Traditional Owners</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People protest the Juukan Gorge destruction" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498391/original/file-20221201-16-cw8scj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498391/original/file-20221201-16-cw8scj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498391/original/file-20221201-16-cw8scj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498391/original/file-20221201-16-cw8scj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498391/original/file-20221201-16-cw8scj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498391/original/file-20221201-16-cw8scj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498391/original/file-20221201-16-cw8scj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Juukan Gorge destruction was a tragedy for traditional owners, all Australians and humanity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Wainwright/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What does the future hold?</h2>
<p>To avoid a dual climate and cultural catastrophe, First Nations groups in Australia and elsewhere are joining forces and making their voices heard on the world stage.</p>
<p>At this year’s <a href="https://cop27.eg/#/">COP27</a> climate conference, the International Indigenous Peoples <a href="http://www.iipfcc.org/home">Forum</a> on Climate Change hosted an Indigenous <a href="https://www.iipfccpavilion.org/">pavilion</a> in the “<a href="https://www.bing.com/search?q=blue+zone+cop27&form=ANNH01&refig=e5a6f45a911a469c8091f7125c5e1dfe">blue zone</a>”, where advocates gather to network and discuss important issues. Such global First Nations <a href="https://nit.com.au/13-11-2022/4305/global-first-nations-solidarity-vital-to-climate-fight-national-native-title-council-head-at-cop27">solidarity</a> is becoming vital in the fight against climate change and achieving a <a href="https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_emp/---emp_ent/documents/publication/wcms_860607.pdf">just energy transition</a>.</p>
<p>Indigenous peoples must also have access to the latest data and information – including what future mineral wealth lies on their lands. This is one practical step towards addressing power imbalances.</p>
<p>Solutions to the climate crisis must be found, and energy transition minerals are an important part of the puzzle. However, First Nations aspirations for maintaining the natural and cultural integrity of their lands and territories, and participating in decisions about mining, must be at the forefront. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-climate-change-activists-can-learn-from-first-nations-campaigns-against-the-fossil-fuel-industry-165869">What climate change activists can learn from First Nations campaigns against the fossil fuel industry</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195438/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deanna is chief investigator of an ARC Linkage grant on public-private inquiries in mining; member of the International Council of Mining and Metals (expert review panel; and trustee and member of the international advisory council for the Institute of Human Rights and Business. She is Director of the Centre for Social Responsibility in Mining at The University of Queensland. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Owen is a co-investigator of an ARC Linkage grant on public-private inquiries in mining. He is an Honorary Professor with the Centre for Social Responsibility in Mining at the University of Queensland and Visiting Professor with the Centre for Development Support at the University of the Free State. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kado Muir is a traditional owner and native title holder in the deserts of Western Australia. He is chair of the National Native Council and co-chair of the First Nations Heritage Protection Alliance. Kado is a two way knowledge practitioner as custodian of Ngalia cultural heritage and traditional ecological knowledge merged with his anthropological training he is a leading Australian ethnoecologist.</span></em></p>Energy transition minerals are essential to tackling climate change. But First Nations people must have a genuine say in where and how this happens.Deanna Kemp, Professor and Director, Centre for Social Responsibility in Mining, The University of QueenslandJohn Owen, Professorial Research Fellow, The University of QueenslandKado Muir, Chair of National Native Title Council and Ngalia Cultural Leader | EthnoEcologist, Indigenous KnowledgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1939432022-12-01T13:40:55Z2022-12-01T13:40:55ZSatellites detect no real climate benefit from 10 years of forest carbon offsets in California<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494772/original/file-20221110-27-ibny4x.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C32%2C1542%2C1122&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Redwood forests like this one in California can store large amounts of carbon, but not if they're being cut down.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shane Coffield</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many of the companies promising “net-zero” emissions to protect the climate are relying on vast swaths of forests and what are known as <a href="https://climate.mit.edu/explainers/carbon-offsets">carbon offsets</a> to meet that goal.</p>
<p>On paper, carbon offsets appear to balance out a company’s carbon emissions: The company pays to protect trees, which absorb carbon dioxide from the air. The company can then claim the absorbed carbon dioxide as an offset that reduces its net impact on the climate.</p>
<p>However, our new satellite analysis reveals what researchers have suspected for years: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16380">Forest offsets</a> might not actually be doing much for the climate.</p>
<hr>
<iframe id="noa-web-audio-player" style="border: none" src="https://embed-player.newsoveraudio.com/v4?key=x84olp&id=https://theconversation.com/satellites-detect-no-real-climate-benefit-from-10-years-of-forest-carbon-offsets-in-california-193943&bgColor=F5F5F5&color=D8352A&playColor=D8352A" width="100%" height="110px"></iframe>
<p><em>You can listen to more articles from The Conversation, narrated by Noa, <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/audio-narrated-99682">here</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>When we looked at satellite tracking of carbon levels and logging activity in California forests, we found that carbon isn’t increasing in the state’s 37 offset project sites any more than in other areas, and timber companies aren’t logging less than they did before.</p>
<p>The findings send a pretty grim message about efforts to control climate change, and they add to a growing list of concerns about forest offsets. Studies have already shown that projects are <a href="https://carbonplan.org/research/forest-offsets-explainer">often overcredited</a> at the beginning and might not last <a href="https://news.uci.edu/2021/07/22/californias-carbon-mitigation-efforts-may-be-thwarted-by-climate-change-itself/">as long as expected</a>. In this case we’re finding a bigger issue: a lack of real climate benefit over the 10 years of the program so far.</p>
<p>But we also see ways to fix the problem.</p>
<h2>How forest carbon offsets work</h2>
<p>Forest carbon offsets work like this: Trees capture carbon dioxide from the air and use it to build mass, effectively locking the carbon away in their wood for the life of the tree.</p>
<p>In California, landowners can receive carbon credits for keeping carbon stocks above a minimum required “baseline” level. <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/compliance-offset-program/offset-verification">Third-party verifiers</a> help the landowners take inventory by <a href="https://rmi.org/can-we-count-on-forest-carbon-credits/">manually measuring</a> a sample of trees. So far, this process has only involved measuring carbon levels relative to baseline and has not leveraged the emerging satellite technologies that we explored.</p>
<p>Forest owners can then sell the carbon credits to private companies, with the idea that they have protected trees that would otherwise be cut down. These include large oil and gas companies that use offsets to meet up to 8% of their state-mandated reductions in emissions. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man measures a tree with a tape measure." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496597/original/file-20221121-25-2jy9ld.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496597/original/file-20221121-25-2jy9ld.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496597/original/file-20221121-25-2jy9ld.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496597/original/file-20221121-25-2jy9ld.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496597/original/file-20221121-25-2jy9ld.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496597/original/file-20221121-25-2jy9ld.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496597/original/file-20221121-25-2jy9ld.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Most offset projects are verified by manually measuring the size of a sample of trees.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/here-pnong-man-ply-chhroeut-helps-to-measure-one-of-his-news-photo/167502669">Jerry Redfern/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Forest offsets and other “natural climate solutions” have received a great deal of attention from <a href="https://www.msci.com/documents/1296102/26195050/MSCI-Net-ZeroTracker-October.pdf">companies</a>, <a href="https://www.offsetguide.org/understanding-carbon-offsets/carbon-offset-programs/compliance-offset-programs/">governments</a> and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2020-nature-conservancy-carbon-offsets-trees/">nonprofits</a>, including <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/08/climate/cop27-carbon-climate-change.html">during the U.N. climate conference</a> in November 2022. California has one of the world’s <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/compliance-offset-program">largest carbon offset programs</a>, with tens of millions of dollars flowing through offset projects, and is often a model for other countries that are <a href="https://qz.com/carbon-offsets-are-making-a-comeback-at-cop27-1849762633">planning new offset programs</a>.</p>
<p>It’s clear that offsets are playing a large and growing role in climate policy, from the individual to the international level. In our view, they need to be backed by the best available science.</p>
<h2>3 potential problems</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16380">study used satellite data</a> to track <a href="http://emapr.ceoas.oregonstate.edu/getData.html">carbon levels</a>, <a href="https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/CVTNLY">tree harvesting rates</a> and <a href="https://lemma.forestry.oregonstate.edu/data/plot-database">tree species</a> in forest offset projects compared with other similar forests in California.</p>
<p>Satellites offer a more complete record than on-the-ground reports collected at offset projects. That allowed us to assess all of California since 1986.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496552/original/file-20221121-11-yajora.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map shows protected areas and zooms in on one to show how we compared carbon and harvest for the project and similar forests." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496552/original/file-20221121-11-yajora.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496552/original/file-20221121-11-yajora.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496552/original/file-20221121-11-yajora.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496552/original/file-20221121-11-yajora.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496552/original/file-20221121-11-yajora.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496552/original/file-20221121-11-yajora.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496552/original/file-20221121-11-yajora.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Using satellite data, we can track carbon changes and harvest rates in offset projects (red) compared with other private forests (black and gray). The highlighted example project started in 2014 (dashed vertical line).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adapted from Coffield et al., 2022, Global Change Biology</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>From this broad view, we <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16380">identified three problems</a> indicating a lack of climate benefit:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Carbon isn’t being added to these projects faster than before the projects began or faster than in non-offset areas.</p></li>
<li><p>Many of the projects are owned and operated by large timber companies, which manage to meet requirements for offset credits by keeping carbon above the minimum baseline level. However, these lands have been heavily harvested and continue to be harvested.</p></li>
<li><p>In some regions, projects are being put on lands with lower-value tree species that aren’t at risk from logging. For example, at one large timber company in the redwood forests of northwestern California, the offset project is only 4% redwood, compared with 25% redwood on the rest of the company’s property. Instead, the offset project’s area is overgrown with tanoak, which is not marketable timber and doesn’t need to be protected from logging.</p></li>
</ol>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495926/original/file-20221117-22-sx5wje.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Color-coded satellite image shows how protected areas are carefully carved out, often allowing higher-quality trees to remain in areas being logged." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495926/original/file-20221117-22-sx5wje.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495926/original/file-20221117-22-sx5wje.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495926/original/file-20221117-22-sx5wje.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495926/original/file-20221117-22-sx5wje.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495926/original/file-20221117-22-sx5wje.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495926/original/file-20221117-22-sx5wje.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495926/original/file-20221117-22-sx5wje.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Example of one large timber company’s properties and offset project, which appears to be protecting lands at less risk of logging.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16380">Adapted from Coffield et al., 2022, Global Change Biology</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How California can fix its offset program</h2>
<p>Our research points to a set of recommendations for California to improve its offsets protocols.</p>
<p>One recommendation is to begin using satellite data to monitor forests and confirm that they are indeed being managed to protect or store more carbon. For example, it could help foresters create <a href="https://verra.org/methodologies/methodology-for-improved-forest-management/">more realistic baselines</a> to compare offsets against. Publicly available <a href="https://gedi.umd.edu/">satellite data</a> is improving and can help make carbon offsetting more transparent and reliable. </p>
<p>California can also avoid putting offset projects on lands that are already being conserved. We found <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16380">several projects</a> owned by conservation groups on land that already had low harvest rates.</p>
<p>Additionally, California could improve its offset contract protocols to make sure landowners can’t withdraw from an offset program in the future and cut down those trees. Currently there is a penalty for doing so, but it might not be high enough. Landowners may be able to begin a project, receive a huge profit from the initial credits, cut down the trees in 20 to 30 years, pay back their credits plus penalty, and still come out ahead if inflation exceeds the liability.</p>
<p>Ironically, while intended to help mitigate climate change, forest offsets are also vulnerable to it – particularly in wildfire-prone California. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2021AV000384">Research suggests</a> that California is hugely <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2022.930426">underestimating</a> the <a href="https://theconversation.com/trees-arent-a-climate-change-cure-all-2-new-studies-on-the-life-and-death-of-trees-in-a-warming-world-show-why-182944">climate risks</a> to forest offset projects in the state.</p>
<p>The state protocol requires only 2% or 4% of carbon credits be set aside in an <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2021-10/nc-forest_offset_faq_20211027.pdf">insurance pool against wildfires</a>, even though multiple projects have been <a href="https://blog.frontiersin.org/2022/08/05/worrying-finding-in-californias-multi-billion-dollar-climate-initiative-reveals-problem-with-using-forests-to-offset-co2-emissions/">damaged by recent fires</a>. When wildfires occur, the lost carbon can be accounted for by the insurance pool. However, the pool may soon be depleted as yearly burned area increases in a warming climate. The insurance pool must be large enough to cover the worsening droughts, wildfires and disease and beetle infestations.</p>
<p>Considering our findings around the challenges of forest carbon offsets, focusing on other options, such as investing in solar and electrification projects in low-income urban areas, may provide more cost-effective, reliable and just outcomes.</p>
<p>Without improvements to the current system, we may be underestimating our net emissions, contributing to the profits of large emitters and landowners and distracting from the real solutions of transitioning to a clean-energy economy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193943/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shane Coffield received funding from the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program for his graduate studies at UC Irvine. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Randerson receives funding from NASA, the US Dept. of Energy Office of Science, the National Science Foundation, and the State of California Strategic Growth Council.</span></em></p>Millions of dollars have gone into California’s forest carbon offset program – with little new carbon storage to show for it, a new study suggests.Shane Coffield, Postdoctoral Scientist in Biospheric Sciences, Goddard Space Flight Center, NASAJames Randerson, Professor of Earth Science, University of California, IrvineLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1953482022-11-30T21:54:23Z2022-11-30T21:54:23ZCOP27 failed. So why continue with these UN climate summits?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498074/original/file-20221129-20-l19395.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C530%2C8355%2C5186&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Climate conferences provide platforms for collaboration among countries, venues for interaction across levels of governance and critical events to mobilize civil society and media coverage. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Peter Dejong)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/cop27-failed--so-why-continue-with-these-un-climate-summits" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2022/02/28/pr-wgii-ar6/">Climate change is an existential threat to human civilization and planetary ecosystems</a>. Yet despite 27 UN Conference of the Parties (COP) meetings that have taken place so far, the international community has been unable to ward off imminent disaster. </p>
<p>A number of expert commentators have already <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-will-be-remembered-as-a-failure-heres-what-went-wrong-194982">declared COP27 — the recent UN climate summit in Egypt — to be a failure.</a> The talks <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-03807-0">stalled on key issues and failed to secure commitments to stop greenhouse gas emissions</a> from rising beyond thresholds that will lead to dangerous global warming. </p>
<p>Other critical voices are concerned that the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/uns-coke-sponsorship-leaves-bad-taste-with-environmentally-conscious-groups">whole process is becoming too business-friendly</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/10/big-rise-in-number-of-fossil-fuel-lobbyists-at-cop27-climate-summit">to the detriment of other perspectives and voices</a>. These yearly big climate conferences have also been <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/12/cop26-climate-summit-record-co2-emissions-air-travel-main-culprit.html">criticized as a waste of time and resources</a>. </p>
<p>Given these problems and repeated failures, why continue with the COP meetings? As researchers who study social movements and environmental and climate change politics and policy, we believe that continuing with these climate conferences can still lead to positive outcomes. </p>
<h2>Assessing COPs success or failure</h2>
<p>Under <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/what-is-the-united-nations-framework-convention-on-climate-change">the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)</a> agreement, member states meet at <a href="https://unfccc.int/process/bodies/supreme-bodies/conference-of-the-parties-cop">the COP summits annually</a> to review the implementation of the decisions taken by COP members and further develop a collective approach to addressing global climate change.</p>
<p>For many, especially those following the COP discussions from the outside, the assessment of the success or failure of the meetings tends to focus on commitments made in the final agreements. </p>
<p>From this perspective, <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">the 2015 Paris conference</a> stands out as a relative success as it set in place a formal commitment — the Paris Agreement — to limit global warming to well below 2 C. Meanwhile the 2009 <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2012.651903">Copenhagen COP was judged as a failure because it failed to deliver a significant new agreement while the Kyoto Protocol was winding down</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cbJ5wHFU09w?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The 2015 Paris conference stands out as a success as it set in place a formal commitment — the Paris Agreement — to limit global warming to well below 2 C.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But this failure unfolded while pressure from civil society and other actors grew, and <a href="http://doi.org/10.1177/00323217211049294">lessons learned from this experience enabled first steps towards a paradigm shift in the international climate change regime that ultimately led to the progress that was made in the Paris Agreement</a>.</p>
<p>It is, therefore, even more difficult to gauge the outcomes of any given specific COP based on the final agreement alone.</p>
<h2>Three conditions that can facilitate progress</h2>
<p>It is important to look at the bigger picture. From this perspective, we argue that the UNFCCC process creates three conditions for progress on international climate change policy.</p>
<p>First, <a href="http://www.critical-juncture.net/uploads/2/1/9/9/21997192/pierson_increasing_returns.pdf">the UNFCCC meetings create path dependencies — initiatives that might have small effects to start with, but that may result in increasing returns over time — that stabilize co-operation between states</a>, often simultaneously on multiple topics. Even after the failure of the 2009 Copenhagen conference, <a href="http://doi.org/10.1177/00323217211049294">nation states continued the yearly meetings and began negotiating a new agreement</a>, resulting in the paradigm-shifting Paris Agreement in 2015. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1589353126905409536"}"></div></p>
<p>In the recent meetings in Egypt, there was a significant breakthrough on <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/19/climate/un-climate-damage-cop27.html?searchResultPosition=2">a provisional agreement for a fund for “Loss and Damage”</a> to compensate poorer countries that are disproportionally affected by climate change. This fund, which is a key part of the solution to addressing climate justice, <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/adaptation-and-resilience/workstreams/loss-and-damage/warsaw-international-mechanism">has roots in the 2013 Warsaw COP meeting</a>. But significant progress was not made until COP27.</p>
<p>Second, the UNFCCC process serves as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/227352">a focal point for the formation of social network among</a> various government and non-government organizations. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2017.1319019">By bringing together representatives from cities, regions, businesses and civil society organizations, the UNFCCC summits provide a venue that promotes interaction and facilitates</a> “<a href="http://ndl.ethernet.edu.et/bitstream/123456789/53786/1/3.Henrik%20Enderlein.pdf#page=56">overlapping multi-level games</a>.”</p>
<p>Put another way, although a lot of the attention directed at COP meetings focuses on the role of national governments, the COP meetings also attract policymakers from other levels of government. These interactions frequently lead to important bilateral or side deals that are often overlooked because news headlines focus on the final COP agreements. </p>
<p>This was seen at <a href="https://unfccc-cop26.streamworld.de/webcast/denmark-and-costa-rica">last year’s COP26 in Glasgow when the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA)</a> was announced. The alliance was co-led by Denmark and Costa Rica, and involved other provinces and states.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A view of a conference set up and a screen on the right saying BOGA, Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498069/original/file-20221129-12-7lp6gp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498069/original/file-20221129-12-7lp6gp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498069/original/file-20221129-12-7lp6gp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498069/original/file-20221129-12-7lp6gp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498069/original/file-20221129-12-7lp6gp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498069/original/file-20221129-12-7lp6gp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498069/original/file-20221129-12-7lp6gp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA) was announced in one of the side discussions at COP26 in Glasgow in 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Alastair Grant)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Third, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1353/sof.0.0145">COP meetings are “critical events” — episodic and widespread socio-political events — that shape the context for social issues or movements</a>. While critical events are unpredictable, COP meetings are regularly scheduled. </p>
<p>This allows civil society to plan to participate in or support the political opportunities that COP meetings provide. It also attracts significant media attention. Society’s involvement in these critical events plays an important role in changing the discourse about climate policy — including the shift in attention towards climate justice and loss and damage — and putting pressure on climate laggard governments. </p>
<h2>Failure: a stepping stone to success</h2>
<p>Conference of the Parties fail at delaying or stopping climate change. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/20/cop27-summit-climate-crisis-global-heating-fossil-fuel-industry">They will continue to fail until they are able to limit warming to 1.5 C</a>. </p>
<p>In the interim, they provide essential conditions for positive change: a stable platform for trust-building and collaboration among countries, a venue for interaction across levels of governance and a critical event to mobilize civil society and media coverage. </p>
<p>These crucial functions need to be protected and expanded. The parties <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-climate-crisis-demands-courage-not-optimism-175432">need to demonstrate courage</a> and be willing to make “concessions” in order to move the process forward. This was seen at COP27 as some <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/08/climate/loss-and-damage-cop27-climate.html">Western nations gave up their resistance to the “Loss and Damage” fund</a>. </p>
<p>The diverse groups observing the COPs — from within the climate summit venues and from across the world — must be ensured access to participation in these meetings. This will facilitate transparency and provide opportunities for interaction and co-operation across various sectors. And while the private sector has an important role to play, the creeping shift toward making COP a business fair needs to be curtailed. Or else, the next COP will be yet another business-as-usual affair.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195348/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Tindall receives research funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. This is an agency that provides funding for academic research. The funding is for research expenses, not the salary of the author. David Tindall has a volunteer affiliation with the Climate Reality Project Canada, for whom he periodically gives educational presentations to public audiences on climate change.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark CJ Stoddart receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marlene Kammerer receives funding from the Swiss Network of International Studies (SNIS).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maria Brockhaus does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There have been 27 UN COP meetings. Despite these negotiations, the planet is on target to exceed emission thresholds for global warming. Given these failures, why continue with this process?David Tindall, Professor of Sociology, University of British ColumbiaMaria Brockhaus, Professor of International Forest Policy, University of HelsinkiMark CJ Stoddart, Professor, Department of Sociology, Memorial University of NewfoundlandMarlene Kammerer, Senior researcher, Climate and Environmental Policy, University of BernLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1943252022-11-28T18:20:03Z2022-11-28T18:20:03ZTo fight the climate crisis, we need to stop expanding offshore drilling for oil and gas<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497313/original/file-20221125-22-13msb1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=92%2C86%2C4005%2C2052&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Offshore oil and gas activities jeopardize coastal environments, human health and local economies.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Chris Carlson)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/to-fight-the-climate-crisis--we-need-to-stop-expanding-offshore-drilling-for-oil-and-gas" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Environmental disaster struck the shores of Peru on Jan. 15, 2022, when Spanish energy company Repsol spilled <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/perus-oil-spill-and-future-extractive-industries-latin-america">12,000 barrels of crude oil</a> into the Bay of Lima after its tanker ruptured. The spill <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-00333-x">endangered 180,000 birds</a> and <a href="https://www.oas.org/en/iachr/jsForm/?File=/en/iachr/media_center/preleases/2022/024.asp">destroyed</a> the livelihoods of 5,000 families.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497308/original/file-20221125-12-ajjpnr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The carcass of a bird lays on a rocky shore polluted with oil on a beach following the Repsol oil spill." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497308/original/file-20221125-12-ajjpnr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497308/original/file-20221125-12-ajjpnr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497308/original/file-20221125-12-ajjpnr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497308/original/file-20221125-12-ajjpnr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497308/original/file-20221125-12-ajjpnr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497308/original/file-20221125-12-ajjpnr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497308/original/file-20221125-12-ajjpnr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Energy company Repsol spilled 12,000 barrels of crude oil into the bay of Lima, Peru, after its tanker ruptured, endangering 180,000 birds and coastal communities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Martin Mejia)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Although this disaster was the largest-ever oil spill in Peru, it is only the most recent of the <a href="https://usa.oceana.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/drill-19-0004_bp_deepwater_horizon_anniversary_report_m1_finalwdoi_singlepages.pdf">dozens of large spills that occurred worldwide</a>. In fact, <a href="https://response.restoration.noaa.gov/about/media/how-does-oil-get-ocean.html">39 million litres of oil</a> from offshore drilling — enough to fill 16 Olympic-sized swimming pools — <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/a-14-year-long-oil-spill-in-the-gulf-of-mexico-verges-on-becoming-one-of-the-worst-in-us-history/2018/10/20/f9a66fd0-9045-11e8-bcd5-9d911c784c38_story.html">pollute our seas every year.</a></p>
<p>Time and time again, offshore oil and gas activities have jeopardized <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/10/oil-spill-environment-ocean/">coastal environments</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01540-9">human health</a> and <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/F2011-171">local economies</a>. At the same time, global reliance on fossil fuels — <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=28492">30 per cent of which is extracted from beneath the seabed</a> — continues to <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/">drive greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions</a> towards the <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/10/1129912">planetary tipping point</a>. </p>
<p>A way out of this mess, according to <a href="https://oceana.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/18/2022/11/Oceana-Climate-and-Oceans-Report-FINALSINGLEPAGE.pdf">new analysis conducted by conservation non-profit Oceana</a>, is to halt the expansion of offshore oil and gas extraction, while ramping down future production. This is a critical step towards reducing global emissions.</p>
<h2>Offshore drilling’s immense carbon footprint</h2>
<p>Offshore oil and gas <a href="https://www.boem.gov/sites/default/files/oil-and-gas-energy-program/Leasing/Five-Year-Program/2017-2022/OCS-Report-BOEM-2016-065---OCS-Oil-and-Natural-Gas---Potential-Lifecycle-GHG-Emissions-and-Social-Cost-of-Carbon.pdf">emits vast amounts of GHG</a>, starting during the exploration and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8566">extraction below the seabed</a>, continuing through intensive processing and refining onshore, and right up until the fuels are finally burned. </p>
<p>Drilling operations are dirty too. Oil extraction vents <a href="https://news.stanford.edu/2018/08/30/measuring-crude-oils-carbon-footprint/">unusable and wasted gas</a> that must be burned on the spot. This intentional flaring — burning of gas — blasts not only <a href="https://www.energy.gov/fecm/articles/doe-flaring-and-venting-rd-reducing-emissions-and-developing-valuable-low-carbon#:%7E:text=">methane and carbon dioxide (CO2)</a>, but also <a href="https://news.rice.edu/news/2022/gas-flares-tied-premature-deaths#:%7E:text=">toxic air pollutants</a> into the atmosphere. </p>
<p>At the current rate, these lifecycle-emissions from offshore oil and gas are estimated to reach<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SPM.pdf"> 8.4 billion tons of CO2 equivalent</a> (CO2e, which includes CO2 and other GHG) by 2050.</p>
<h2>Ocean solutions are climate solutions</h2>
<p><a href="https://oceanpanel.org/publication/the-ocean-as-a-solution-to-climate-change-five-opportunities-for-action/">Ocean-based climate solutions</a> envision a healthy ocean that provides both nature- and technology-based opportunities to limit the worst impacts of climate change. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1593259577058934784"}"></div></p>
<p>Simply by existing, the ocean acts as a buffer against the impacts of climate change. It absorbs <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/">more than two-thirds</a> of human-produced CO2 and <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/ocean-heat-content-rises#:%7E:text=The%20ocean%20absorbs%20excess%20heat,attributed%20to%20greenhouse%20gas%20emissionss.">90 per cent of the excess heat</a> trapped by GHG pollution. Connecting science with concrete policy actions, however, is needed to drastically cut emissions and achieve <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">global climate targets</a>.</p>
<p>Experts previously examined the potential of <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/turning-tide-ocean-based-solutions-could-close-emission-gap-21">five ocean-based solutions</a> — ocean-based renewable energy, ocean-based transport, coastal and marine ecosystems, fisheries and marine aquaculture and seabed carbon storage — to mitigate global emissions.</p>
<p>Scaling up <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/wind/articles/how-wind-energy-can-help-us-breathe-easier">offshore renewable energy</a> could significantly cut the need to burn coal for electricity. Meanwhile, co-ordinated efforts are already underway to <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/HotTopics/Pages/Cutting-GHG-emissions.aspx">decarbonize global shipping fleets</a>. Seabed carbon injection remains a contested option to directly capture CO2, as <a href="https://theconversation.com/using-the-ocean-to-fight-climate-change-raises-serious-environmental-justice-and-technical-questions-188340">concerns</a> about its risks and scalability persist. </p>
<p>The nature-based solutions hold promise as well. Protecting and restoring coastal ecosystems like mangroves, seagrasses and saltmarshes will amplify their <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.851448">ability to drawdown</a> and lock carbon away. Replacing emissions-intensive food options with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-02928-w">climate-smart seafood protein</a> ensures better climate <em>and</em> nutrition outcomes. </p>
<h2>Ocean-based solutions can cut emissions</h2>
<p>For the first time in UN Climate Conference history, earlier this month, leaders at COP27 in Egypt were mandated to <a href="https://unfccc.int/event/ocean-and-climate-change-dialogue-2022">prioritize national ocean climate actions</a> under <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/blueing-the-paris-agreement-at-cop27">the Paris Agreement</a>.</p>
<p>But after a week of negotiations, COP27 ended with a whimper as delegates failed to agree to a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-03807-0">phase down of fossil fuels</a>. In fact, fossil fuel industry delegates in Egypt <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-63571610">outnumbered</a> those from the ten countries most affected by climate change. Without collective opposition, fossil fuel interests will continue to <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/08/18/climate-change-inflation-reduction-act-oil-gas/7837956001/">deliberately thwart</a> policy plans to reduce emissions.</p>
<p><a href="https://oceana.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/18/2022/11/Oceana-Climate-and-Oceans-Report-FINALSINGLEPAGE.pdf">The Oceana study</a> put a number on GHG emissions that could be averted if countries cancelled their inactive offshore drilling leases and prevented tapping into any new fields. Instead of continuing investments in dirty and dangerous offshore oil and gas, their funds should support renewable energy development to meet our future energy demands.</p>
<p>The International Energy Agency modelled future oil and gas production under exactly those conditions. The <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050">net-zero emissions by 2050 scenario</a> predicts that ambitious investments in renewable energy will go hand-in-hand with the gradually declining offshore fossil fuel production. By 2050, the annual emissions averted — 6.3 billion tons of CO2e — would be equivalent to taking 1.4 billion cars off the road.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494723/original/file-20221110-25-40hi57.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A graph of six ocean-based solutions that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494723/original/file-20221110-25-40hi57.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494723/original/file-20221110-25-40hi57.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494723/original/file-20221110-25-40hi57.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494723/original/file-20221110-25-40hi57.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494723/original/file-20221110-25-40hi57.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494723/original/file-20221110-25-40hi57.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494723/original/file-20221110-25-40hi57.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Six ocean-based solutions that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Oceana 2022)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Combined with the other ocean climate solutions, stopping new offshore drilling would close nearly 40 per cent of the emissions gap needed to meet the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>But without immediate policy interventions, more untouched oil and gas reserves from the sea will be extracted, burned and generate planet-warming CO2.</p>
<h2>When ocean conservation meets climate priorities</h2>
<p>So is it <em>actually</em> feasible to halt expansion of all new offshore drilling? </p>
<p>Currently, only <a href="https://www.offshore-mag.com/production/article/16756124/top-10-offshore-producing-countries-in-2017">10 countries</a> dominate 65 per cent of the offshore oil and gas market. By 2025, around <a href="https://www.globaldata.com/store/report/offshore-oil-and-gas-upstream-development-market-analysis/">355 new offshore oil and gas projects</a> across 48 countries are slated to start operating. At COP27, some coastal African nations expressed intentions to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/african-hosted-climate-talks-give-fossil-fuel-voice-2022-11-10/">tap into fossil fuels</a> to improve energy access.</p>
<p>But locking in more offshore drilling leases will not ensure energy security or necessarily <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/article/5-reasons-why-the-united-states-cant-drill-its-way-to-energy-independence/">lower fuel prices</a>. Oil companies continue to rake in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/27/profits-at-worlds-seven-biggest-oil-firms-soar-to-almost-150bn-this-year-windfall-tax#:%7E:text=Profits%20at%20the%20world's%20biggest,%2459bn%20(%C2%A351bn).">record profits</a>. New drilling will, however, trap coastal communities in an unsustainable industry that threatens to pollute waters, harm their health and heat our planet. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tui6ObQtd9g?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Countries like Belize have stopped granting licenses for offshore oil and gas exploration.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Several countries are already taking the lead in plugging this pipeline for good. Since 2017, countries like <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/costa-rica-eyes-permanent-ban-fossil-fuel-exploration-extraction-2021-08-04/">Costa Rica</a>, <a href="http://extwprlegs1.fao.org/docs/pdf/blz175462.pdf">Belize</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/dec/04/denmark-to-end-new-oil-and-gas-exploration-in-north-sea.">Denmark</a>, <a href="https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/act/2021/32/eng/enacted/a3221.pdf">Ireland</a> and <a href="https://www.regional.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/1388172/Offshore-Exploration-and-Mining-Policy.pdf">New Zealand</a> have stopped granting licenses for offshore oil and gas exploration. </p>
<p>Others pledged to <a href="https://beyondoilandgasalliance.com/who-we-are/">ban extraction</a> altogether, while the European Union, India and multiple island nations called for a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/11/20/1137349916/did-the-world-make-progress-on-climate-change-heres-what-was-decided-at-global-t">phase down of all fossil fuel production</a> in this year’s UN climate agreement. A new <a href="https://climatetrace.org/news/more-than-70000-of-the-highest-emitting-greenhouse-gas">global emissions data tool</a> released at COP27 can further help governments hold the biggest fossil fuel polluters accountable. </p>
<p>We are also seeing benefits of regional transitions to clean energy. In the U.S., for instance, the offshore wind industry could support <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/01/12/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-races-to-deploy-clean-energy-that-creates-jobs-and-lowers-costs/">80,000 new jobs</a> by 2030. And new markets in the Global South, like <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/energy/publication/expanding-offshore-wind-in-emerging-markets#:%7E:text=Offshore%20wind%20is%20a%20substantial,at%20the%20end%20of%202018.">Vietnam and India</a>, are also shifting away from offshore oil and gas.</p>
<p>The outcomes of COP27 fell short of the ambition needed to limit emissions on track with our climate goals. More than ever, we need our nations’ leaders to prioritize the well-being of their citizens over the wallets of the fossil fuel industry. A future with less offshore drilling is the only future compatible with clean energy access, a healthy ocean and liveable climate for all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194325/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Skerritt is an affiliated researcher with the Fisheries Economics Research Unit at the University of British Columbia and also works for Oceana’s Transparent Oceans Initiative. The study that forms the basis of this article was fully funded by Oceana and Bloomberg Philanthropies.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Huang is affiliated with Duke University's Nicholas School of the Environment. She also works for Oceana. The study that forms the basis of this article was fully funded by Oceana and Bloomberg Philanthropies.</span></em></p>Stopping the expansion of offshore oil and gas extraction is a critical but often overlooked step towards achieving global climate targets and protecting our oceans and planet.Daniel Skerritt, Affiliated Researcher, Fisheries Economics Research Unit, University of British ColumbiaClaire Huang, Master of Environmental Management, Duke UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1948682022-11-28T16:59:38Z2022-11-28T16:59:38ZOur US$10 trillion global energy bill dwarfs what’s needed to limit global heating<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497665/original/file-20221128-12-mduqne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6006%2C4016&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">William Potter / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The world’s energy bill for 2022 is set to be the highest ever, topping <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/b0beda65-8a1d-46ae-87a2-f95947ec2714/WorldEnergyInvestment2022.pdf">US$10 trillion</a> (£8.3 trillion). This is the total price paid for all forms of energy across all sectors by all people. Something like 80% of this bill is for coal, oil or gas, or for electricity generated from these fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Our addiction to energy is equivalent to more than 10% of <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD">global GDP</a>. Infuriatingly, a lot of the energy we buy goes up in smoke or wasted heat before it even gets a chance to do any useful heating, cooling, cooking, transporting or manufacturing. Energy spending is now greater than total global <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights/the-economic-transformation-what-would-change-in-the-net-zero-transition">tax revenue</a> or <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights/the-economic-transformation-what-would-change-in-the-net-zero-transition">corporate profits</a> and dwarfs <a href="https://milex.sipri.org/sipri">military expenditure</a>. When energy prices are high, as they are now, a good proportion of our overall energy bill becomes profit in the pockets of oil and gas producers.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497647/original/file-20221128-17-y5rec9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart with different sized circles" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497647/original/file-20221128-17-y5rec9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497647/original/file-20221128-17-y5rec9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497647/original/file-20221128-17-y5rec9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497647/original/file-20221128-17-y5rec9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497647/original/file-20221128-17-y5rec9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497647/original/file-20221128-17-y5rec9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497647/original/file-20221128-17-y5rec9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global climate finance, investment and key climate negotiation numbers (to scale).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author's work (data: OECD, World Bank, IEA 2020-22, latest available year used)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the natural world, most species thrive by exquisite optimisation of their energy consumption. <a href="https://theconversation.com/sloths-arent-lazy-their-slowness-is-a-survival-skill-63568">Seemingly-lazy animals</a> ensure they use just enough energy to survive – and no more. </p>
<p>Our high-energy, high-carbon human society is rather different. Each year, we spend no less than four times more on our energy bills than we do investing to minimise and avoid those bills in the future. The good news is that the tide has turned and <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2022/overview-and-key-findings">annual investments in clean energy</a> (US$1.4 trillion) are now greater than investments in fossil fuel systems (US$1 trillion). </p>
<p>But we still waste energy spectacularly, and we could quickly and practically do something about it. The IPCC has <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2022/04/04/ipcc-ar6-wgiii-pressrelease/">said</a> that “there are options available now in every sector that can at least halve emissions by 2030.”</p>
<p>When energy is expensive and the climate clock is ticking, this is a massive missed opportunity to pump solar and wind energy instead of oil and gas.</p>
<h2>COP in context</h2>
<p>Numbers involved in the recent COP27 climate negotiations are put to shame by the amount being spent in the real world outside the negotiating rooms. </p>
<p>For instance, a goal to send US$100 billion a year to climate-vulnerable nations by 2020 was introduced in 2009 and enshrined in the 2015 Paris Agreement but has still not been met. The latest figure was <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/286dae5d-en.pdf?expires=1668262973&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=09CCCBC4498885E611CCBB06D7581A58">US$83.3 billion</a> in 2020. </p>
<p>US$100 billion is just 1% of global consumers’ energy bills. Even the US$1 trillion cost of climate-related <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-the-big-issue-of-cop27-climate-summit-poor-nations-face-a-1trillion-loss-and-damage-bill-but-rich-nations-wont-pay-up-194043">loss and damage</a> is still just 10% of our current annual energy bill.</p>
<p>It is still possible, even now, to stick to the Paris Agreement and limit global heating below 2°C through a rapid transition towards clean energy systems. But it will require a lot of investment. By the end of the decade, the amount of extra funding and investment needed to achieve our climate and sustainable development goals will be double the amount the world <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/b0beda65-8a1d-46ae-87a2-f95947ec2714/WorldEnergyInvestment2022.pdf">invests in all kinds of energy</a> this year.</p>
<h2>Harnessing the rules of finance and economics</h2>
<p>The global economy is of course dynamic. The IEA’s latest <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022">energy scenarios</a> are based on a global economy in 2050 of more than double its current size and an increase in human population from 8 billion to just under 10 billion. With long-term historic growth at around 3% a year, things are always changing. This in turn means a lot of investment in infrastructure happens “naturally”. Indeed, each year, around a quarter of our GDP is spent on <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.GDI.FTOT.CD">new machinery, buildings and infrastructure</a>. </p>
<p>But, as part of a shift away from fossil fuels, we could reduce some of that investment in fossil fuel infrastructure, meaning fewer new oil wells, coal power plants, gas pipelines and so on. That money could instead be invested in clean energy systems. </p>
<p>There’s more: investments in energy efficiency and renewables can take into account the avoided future costs of energy along with the environmental and social problems associated with fossil fuels. We call this net <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights/the-economic-transformation-what-would-change-in-the-net-zero-transition">incremental investment</a> and cost accounting.</p>
<p>It may not sound sexy, but this way of thinking is possibly our greatest weapon in the fight to limit the costs of climate change. It is why capital investments in the real world are being redirected towards energy efficiency and modern clean energy systems.</p>
<p>While the <a href="https://www.livescience.com/50941-second-law-thermodynamics.html">second law of thermodynamics</a> means we always have to work (often hard) to gather and concentrate energy into forms and products we need, we can do much better at exploiting the laws of finance and economics to tackle climate change. Reducing our global energy bill is the key.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194868/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Peake does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We can be much better at exploiting finance and economics to tackle climate change.Stephen Peake, Professor of Climate Change and Energy, The Open UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1940222022-11-27T15:56:57Z2022-11-27T15:56:57ZIs liberal governance unable to deal with global threats?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497455/original/file-20221127-24-s38r78.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1022%2C679&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Egypt's Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri, heads the closing session of the COP27 climate conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joseph Eid/AFP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The translated version of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/les-faiblesses-de-la-gouvernance-liberale-face-aux-menaces-globales-191630">original article in French</a> has been updated to include the authors’ comments on COP27.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Since the Rio de Janeiro Declaration of 1992, government representatives have flocked to one Conferences of the Parties (COP) after the next in an attempt to halt global warming, in vain.</p>
<p>This year’s COP27 was no exception. Although delegates managed to strike a historic deal on a climate finance fund that would go some way in compensating developing countries for climate damage they are suffering, they were unable to produce measures to phase out fossil fuels, or protect biodiversity. This is despite the fact emission have now reached <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-carbon-emissions-at-record-levels-with-no-signs-of-shrinking-new-data-shows-humanity-has-a-monumental-task-ahead-193108">record levels</a>.</p>
<h2>A governance problem</h2>
<p>In this regard, governments’ repeated failure in preventing and managing “global threats”, such as global warming, pollution, biodiversity loss and pandemics, appears to be the rule and not the exception and can hardly be attributed to ignorance. Years of reports on the causes and consequences of these threats have not sufficed to move politicians into action, with scientists increasingly having to take on the role of whistle-blowers to raise awareness over <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666776221001976?via%3Dihub">crises affecting their field of expertise</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494943/original/file-20221112-12607-te8e0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494943/original/file-20221112-12607-te8e0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494943/original/file-20221112-12607-te8e0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494943/original/file-20221112-12607-te8e0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494943/original/file-20221112-12607-te8e0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494943/original/file-20221112-12607-te8e0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494943/original/file-20221112-12607-te8e0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494943/original/file-20221112-12607-te8e0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Variation of annual observed global average temperature (1850–2019) relative to the 1850–1900 average (blue line), as reported in the Summary for Policymakers from The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, 2022) of the United Nations (UN) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Since 1990, the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> (IPCC) has provided objective and comprehensive scientific information on anthropogenic climate change. In 2022, the last part of its <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/">6th report</a> made clear that failure to take climate action threatens the survival of humanity. At the same time, the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_Science-Policy_Platform_on_Biodiversity_and_Ecosystem_Services">Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services</a> (IPBES) published an <a href="https://ipbes.net/news/Media-Release-Global-Assessment">alarming report</a> on the risk of extinction of one million species and pointed the finger at intensive agriculture as the main culprit.</p>
<p>Western governments have been the main organisers of the international political response against these threats. Largely guided by the principle of liberal economics, they have favoured pro-market, and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-16/carney-s-bid-to-boost-carbon-market-scaled-back-amid-controversy">controversial tools</a> such as <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/explainers/how-do-emissions-trading-systems-work/">carbon trading schemes</a>. More than a <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.370.6514.284">much talked about leadership failure</a>, could it be that liberal governance’s failure to prevent and manage global threats draws its roots from structural causes? Otherwise, how can we explain our inability, in spite of an overabundance of warnings and scientific evidence, to solve these issues?</p>
<p>In a recent <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2022.902724/full">study</a>, we argue that certain structural features of liberal democratic governance are responsible for our recurring failures to manage global threats, and spell out proposals to overcome this urgent problem.</p>
<h2>Controversial conceptions of the common good</h2>
<p>Liberalism was established in the West in the 18th century, in a world torn by wars of religion. The pioneers of liberal thought tackled this issue by proposing to dissociate political and moral governance from any religious or philosophical normative system.</p>
<p>According to philosopher <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0090591790018003001">Charles Larmore</a>, a liberal state has to be neutral, in the sense that public institutions and policies cannot be designed to support or favour one philosophical or religious conception of the common good over another.</p>
<p>Consequently, liberal society is characterised by “value pluralism” – values which can be incommensurable and mutually exclusive. And because there is no consensual way to prioritise values, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1065912908320666">“this pluralism of values frequently leads to a version of moral relativism”</a>.</p>
<p>Now, if there are no norms defining the common good, how can one govern in the name of the general interest?</p>
<h2>The legitimisation of “laissez-faire”</h2>
<p>Answering this question requires us to go back in time to understand the nature of liberalism itself. Influenced by English empiricist philosopher John Locke, in the 18th century the French philosopher <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claude_Adrien_Helv%C3%A9tius">Claude-Adrien Helvétius</a> attempted to replace divine laws by natural laws and to introduce a mechanistic vision of human nature in order to legitimise political decisions:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“If the physical universe is subject to the laws of motion, the moral universe is no less subject to those of interest.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>These ideas would greatly influence the pioneers of philosophical and economic liberalism such as Jeremy Bentham, John Stuart Mill or Adam Smith. The latter would go on to theorise that the free pursuit of private interest through trade is the natural driving force of the economy and must therefore constitute the self-organising principle of governance.</p>
<p>In <em>Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy</em> (1942), the economist <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capitalism,_Socialism_and_Democracy">Joseph Schumpeter</a> defined liberal democracy as follows:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“An institutional system leading to political decisions, in which individuals acquire the power to make those decisions through a competitive struggle for the votes of the people.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Thus, although often considered as such, liberalism is not axiomatically neutral. One of its fundamental traits is the belief in the ability of competition to self-organise and optimise economic, social and decision-making processes. Such a faith legitimises a “laissez-faire” approach to markets, as well as the process of deliberative democracy which submits various social projects to the public or representative assemblies for scrutiny.</p>
<h2>The ambiguous place of science</h2>
<p>In a liberal approach, what is good for all and what should be taken as true tends to be determined by a democratic process. This leads to a “competition of opinions” in order to define what is desirable by the greatest number. Thus, scientific judgements frequently tend to be considered by policy makers as <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3109916">opinions among many others</a>.</p>
<p>Moreover, as has been well documented in the fields of <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(05)66474-4/fulltext">health</a> and <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1057/9780230277892">environmental policy</a>, pressure groups can distort the deliberative process through misinformation from the public or policy makers. This is particularly common when science comes into <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/195843">conflict with private commercial interests</a>.</p>
<p>Recently, during the Covid-19 crisis, many prominent liberal political leaders, such as presidents <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3046.long">Donald Trump</a> in the United States and <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0020731420968446">Jair Bolsonaro</a> in Brazil have publicly supported conspiracy theories and rejected the advice of official scientific agencies.</p>
<p>This denial of science has become too frequent an occurrence to be interpreted as accidental. Instead, it strikes us as symptomatic of a deep and very worrying structural problem linked to liberal governance.</p>
<h2>Improving the decision-making process</h2>
<p>Global threats are fundamentally different from traditional threats. First, given the seriousness and irreversibility of their consequences, it is necessary to prevent them, which requires being able to predict their effects. Second, these threats cannot be dealt with in the absence of a coordinated international response, which requires a broad consensus between States on their seriousness, their causes and on the priorities of the response.</p>
<p>Thus, the management of global threats depends on the value attributed to scientific knowledge and the meaning given to the common good. However, certain characteristics of liberalism, in particular the absence of norms defining the common good as well as the place of scientific arguments in the democratic process, make it ill suited to deal with global threats. We cannot therefore simply hope that a change in the composition of governments will solve the problem.</p>
<p>By referring to Hobbes’ <em>modus vivendi</em>, which <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0090591793021004004">aimed to ensure arrangements</a> between members despite their differences in interests, beliefs and values, we propose to work on a minimum definition of what the common good is and how achieve it. This modus vivendi should be based on at least two arguments:</p>
<p>First, responding to global threats involves convincing as many people as possible, regardless of their differences. Thus, we postulate that the survival of the human species as well as the preservation of health be considered as consensual ethical priorities of governance and embody the common good.</p>
<p>Human survival and health are worthy and just goals, capable of convincing the greatest number since they are prerequisites for any other need or desire. In addition, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-one-health-concept-must-prevail-to-allow-us-to-prevent-pandemics-148378">One Health</a>, Planetary Health and EcoHealth concepts, which form the conceptual basis of international public health agencies, recognise that human health is closely dependent on animal and ecosystem health.</p>
<p>Second, scientific advice shouldn’t be considered as one opinion among others. Science is fallible and does not produce absolute truths, but it is our most reliable method for understanding natural phenomena and producing universal knowledge as the consensus basis for global decisions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194022/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eric Muraille received funding from Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique (FNRS-FRS), Belgium</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julien Pillot et Philippe Naccache ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur poste universitaire.</span></em></p>The absence of norms defining the common good and the insufficient place of scientific arguments in the democratic debate weaken the capacity of liberalism to face global threats.Eric Muraille, Biologiste, Immunologiste. Directeur de recherches au FNRS, Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)Julien Pillot, Enseignant-Chercheur en Economie (Inseec) / Pr. associé (U. Paris Saclay) / Chercheur associé (CNRS), INSEEC Grande ÉcolePhilippe Naccache, Professeur Associé, INSEEC Grande ÉcoleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1951862022-11-27T13:47:35Z2022-11-27T13:47:35ZCOP27 ‘loss and damage’ fund: A historic decision amid discouraging results<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497077/original/file-20221123-16-7ifzr5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=38%2C0%2C8588%2C4340&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The sun setting in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, host of COP27. The results of the international meeting were disappointing overall.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Peter Dejong)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The recent <a href="https://unfccc.int/cop27">COP27</a> climate conference was billed as <a href="https://cop27.eg/#/vision#goals">the moment to implement</a> the climate change commitments states made at <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">COP21</a>, held in Paris in December 2015.</p>
<p>COP27 took place in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, in an uncertain <a href="https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2022/11/20/russias-war-on-ukraine-at-cop27-and-energy-security/">geopolitical, energy and economic</a> context. Marked by the 30th anniversary of the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/what-is-the-united-nations-framework-convention-on-climate-change">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a>, its outcomes were highly anticipated.</p>
<p>The results are encouraging in some respects, and very discouraging in others.</p>
<p>As researchers at the University of Ottawa, UQAM and University of Oxford, we represent the <a href="https://www2.uottawa.ca/faculty-law/common-law/centre-environmental-law-global-sustainability">Centre for Environmental Law and Global Sustainability</a>. We followed COP27 from a distance and in person. Here are the key highlights we took away from it.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496572/original/file-20221121-14-idnbff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496572/original/file-20221121-14-idnbff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496572/original/file-20221121-14-idnbff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496572/original/file-20221121-14-idnbff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496572/original/file-20221121-14-idnbff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496572/original/file-20221121-14-idnbff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496572/original/file-20221121-14-idnbff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Youth activists call on world leaders to limit warming to 1.5 C at COP27 on Nov. 19 in Sharm El-Sheikh.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Nariman El-Mofty)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Funding for losses and damages: A historic decision, but…</h2>
<p>The conference opened with the unexpected placement of <a href="https://www.iddri.org/en/publications-and-events/blog-post/loss-and-damage-adverse-effects-climate-change-human-and-natural">loss and damage finance</a> on the agenda and the ambitious goal of reaching a decision on this controversial topic. The objective of this aspect of climate finance is to compensate states for the damage suffered due to the impacts of climate change.</p>
<p>Driven in large part by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/20/cop27-agrees-to-historic-loss-and-damage-fund-to-compensate-developing-countries-for-climate-impacts">developing countries</a>, the agreement reached to create a fund and a transitional committee to operationalize the issue of loss and damage is a landmark decision, given the <a href="https://time.com/6188699/loss-damages-blocked-from-cop27-agenda/">reluctance of some developed states</a> in determining the form and consequences of this fund.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496573/original/file-20221121-19-n8gund.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496573/original/file-20221121-19-n8gund.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496573/original/file-20221121-19-n8gund.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496573/original/file-20221121-19-n8gund.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496573/original/file-20221121-19-n8gund.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496573/original/file-20221121-19-n8gund.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496573/original/file-20221121-19-n8gund.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Demonstrators call for funding for loss and damage due to climate change at COP27 on Nov. 18.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Peter Dejong)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The mechanism is expected to be <a href="https://unfccc.int/documents/624434">operational within two years</a>, but there are concerns that its funding is heavily dependent on developed countries <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/cop27-reaches-breakthrough-agreement-on-new-loss-and-damage-fund-for-vulnerable-countries">whose financial commitments to the Adaptation Fund are still lacking</a>. In addition, <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/sustainable-future/developing-china-wont-pay-into-climate-loss-fund">China, designated as a developing country</a> (but which, in fact, no longer is), has already revealed that it will not contribute to the fund.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.odt.co.nz/news/world/%E2%80%98loss-and-damage%E2%80%99-deal-struck">Petrostates are also resisting the idea of making any financial contribution</a>. In his closing speech to the plenary session, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres stressed <a href="https://media.un.org/en/asset/k12/k12p31t118">the political importance of the fund, but regretted its inadequacy</a>. This mechanism in fact reveals a paradox at the heart of the climate negotiations: the financing of measures to remedy the impacts of climate change, on the one hand, and the continued refusal to eliminate fossil fuels on the other.</p>
<h2>The 1.5 degree target slips further away</h2>
<p>The implementation called for by COP27 was also to be expressed through concrete actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to achieve the objectives of the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/paris-agreement.html">Paris Agreement</a>. The aim is to keep the rise in the average temperature of the planet well below 2°C and to continue efforts to limit the rise in temperature to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels.</p>
<p>In this respect, COP27 was blocked by the status quo, despite the urgency. Parties including Saudi Arabia <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/18/eu-reversal-stance-loss-damage-china-cop27">opposed the addition of the 1.5 degree limit in the final text</a>, even after having committed to setting “tougher climate targets” at COP26. Other countries, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/uk-eu-canada-meet-cop27-presidency-say-talks-cant-fail-2022-11-17/">including the UK, Canada and the EU</a> fought to preserve the gains of the <a href="https://ukcop26.org/the-glasgow-climate-pact/">Glasgow Pact</a>. The final text of COP27 merely reaffirms the objectives of the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>Achieving this goal is becoming increasingly unrealistic. Only 34 countries have <a href="https://unfccc.int/NDCREG">submitted or updated their national contributions to reducing emissions</a> since COP26. However, the current contributions to which states have committed will not (assuming they are met) keep the rise in global temperature <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">below 2 degrees</a>. The <a href="https://news.sky.com/video/cop27-1-5c-global-warming-pledge-is-on-life-support-says-alok-sharma-12751619#:%7E:text=COP26%20President%20Alok%20Sharma%20said,nations%20don't%20act%20now.">1.5°C target is now “on life support.”</a></p>
<h2>Fossil fuel phase-down still missing</h2>
<p>Many countries vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, including Tuvalu, have reiterated the urgency of phasing out fossil fuels and have called for the implementation of a <a href="https://fossilfueltreaty.org/">fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty</a>.</p>
<p>While some parties, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/india-seeks-cop27-deal-phase-down-all-fossil-fuels-sources-2022-11-12/">led by India</a>, lobbied for the phase-down of fossil fuels to be included in the final text, the <a href="https://unfccc.int/cop27/auv">Sharm El-Sheikh Plan of Implementation</a> reiterates the wording proposed in the Glasgow Pact, which refers only to coal. The strong presence of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/10/big-rise-in-number-of-fossil-fuel-lobbyists-at-cop27-climate-summit">oil and gas sector, whose participation increased by 25% compared to COP26</a>, certainly played a role.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496577/original/file-20221121-13-ysqyaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496577/original/file-20221121-13-ysqyaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496577/original/file-20221121-13-ysqyaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496577/original/file-20221121-13-ysqyaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496577/original/file-20221121-13-ysqyaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496577/original/file-20221121-13-ysqyaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496577/original/file-20221121-13-ysqyaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Canadian participant Lauren Latour demonstrates against fossil fuels at COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh on Nov. 18.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Peter Dejong)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Canada <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/canada-wont-back-call-at-cop27-to-phase-down-oil-and-gas-production">supported the retention of this wording</a> before <a href="https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/cop27-overtime-canada-face-criticism-oil-and-gas">qualifying its position</a> in the face of criticism. No doubt this issue will be discussed again at the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/16/uae-cop28-host-lobby-climate-reputation-cop27">next COP28 in the United Arab Emirates</a>.</p>
<h2>Canada at the COP</h2>
<p>Unlike at COP26, <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2022/11/03/justin-trudeau-shows-lack-of-leadership-by-skipping-climate-change-conference-critics-charge.html">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau</a> and his Québec counterpart, François Legault, did not attend. However, Canada had a strong presence at COP27 with a <a href="https://unfccc.int/documents/622327">377-member delegation</a> led by Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496574/original/file-20221121-14-h3ff8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496574/original/file-20221121-14-h3ff8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496574/original/file-20221121-14-h3ff8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496574/original/file-20221121-14-h3ff8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496574/original/file-20221121-14-h3ff8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496574/original/file-20221121-14-h3ff8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496574/original/file-20221121-14-h3ff8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Canada had a 377-member delegation at COP27, led by Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault, shown here with counterparts from Norway and New Zealand, on Nov. 19 in Sharm El-Sheikh.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Nariman El-Mofty)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The delegation included a wide range of stakeholders beyond the federal public sector. These included representatives of Indigenous organizations, provincial and municipal representatives, NGO representatives, but also <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-63571610">eight lobbyists from the fossil fuel sector</a>.</p>
<p>Canada also hosted a pavilion for the first time in the negotiating area. Activities were organized around three guiding pillars: <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/canada-international-action/un-climate-change-conference/cop27-summit/canada-pavilion.html">ambition, implementation and partnership</a>. These activities were nevertheless clouded by <a href="https://www.globeseries.com/cop27-event-program-schedule/">the organization of events featuring the fossil fuel sector</a>, in turn spurring demonstrations by civil society actors (which did not hinder the holding of events).</p>
<h2>A chaotic COP for participants</h2>
<p>A multitude of logistical problems limited access to the negotiations, including pavilions inaccessible to people with reduced mobility, excessive and fluctuating costs of accommodation, <a href="https://www.nationalworld.com/news/environment/cop27-delegates-joe-biden-leaders-egypt-climate-change-summit-3908600">last-minute cancellations of hotel reservations and price increases</a> and various obstacles to safe movement for people with disabilities.</p>
<p>There were also digital issues. Participants faced problems accessing the virtual platform. On site, one of the biggest challenges was the installation of the official application developed by the Egyptian Ministry of Communications and Information Technology, which required excessive authorizations to access. Indeed, many delegations questioned whether the Egyptian government was actually using the application <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/12/expert-warn-egypts-cop27-app-could-be-used-for-surveilliance">for surveillance purposes</a>.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496578/original/file-20221121-18-x4h1sv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496578/original/file-20221121-18-x4h1sv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496578/original/file-20221121-18-x4h1sv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496578/original/file-20221121-18-x4h1sv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496578/original/file-20221121-18-x4h1sv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496578/original/file-20221121-18-x4h1sv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496578/original/file-20221121-18-x4h1sv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Simon Stiell, UN executive secretary on climate change, at the closing plenary session of COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh on Nov. 20. COP28 will take place next year in Dubai.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Peter Dejong)</span></span>
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<h2>Eyes on Dubai</h2>
<p>COP27 marks 30 years of negotiations, with the prospect of a catastrophic trajectory of <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">temperatures rising between 2.5 and 3 degrees</a>. The results of COP27 are extremely disappointing in this regard given the urgency of the situation. They reflect colossal political differences that highlight the <a href="https://www.iisd.org/articles/deep-dive/global-climate-change-governance-search-effectiveness-and-universality">major challenges of environmental governance at the international level</a>.</p>
<p>They also demonstrate the difficulty of our societies going without <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/essay/why-are-fossil-fuels-so-hard-to-quit/">fossil fuels</a>. The hopes of climate defenders are now turning, once again, to the next COP. The 28th edition will take place in the United Arab Emirates, a region whose economy is largely based on the exploitation of fossil fuels.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195186/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Burelli is the co-director of the Centre for Environmental Law and Global Sustainability at the University of Ottawa.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alycia Leonard is a member of the Energy and Power Group — University of Oxford. Her research is part of the Climate Compatible Growth program, which is funded by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elie Klee has received funding from the University of Ottawa as Coordinator of the Centre for Environmental Law and Global Sustainability.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexandre Lillo, Erin Dobbelsteyn, Justine Bouquier et Lauren Touchant ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur poste universitaire.</span></em></p>The historic agreement on a loss and damage fund was overshadowed by lack of progress on phasing out fossil fuels.Thomas Burelli, Professeur en droit, Section de droit civil, Université d’Ottawa (Canada), membre du Conseil scientifique de la Fondation France Libertés, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaAlexandre Lillo, Professeur au Département des sciences juridiques, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)Alycia Leonard, Postdoctoral research assistant, University of OxfordElie Klee, Doctorant en droit international public, coordinateur du Centre du droit de l'environnement et de la durabilité mondiale de l'Université d'Ottawa, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaErin Dobbelsteyn, PhD Student in Environmental Law, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaJustine Bouquier, PhD Candidate, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLauren Touchant, Professor at Vancouver Island University & Postdoctoral fellow, Centre d’études en gouvernance et du Centre de droit de l’environnement et de la durabilité mondiale, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1950972022-11-24T19:06:24Z2022-11-24T19:06:24ZStripping carbon from the atmosphere might be needed to avoid dangerous warming – but it remains a deeply uncertain prospect<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497143/original/file-20221124-26-20gh5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=29%2C36%2C4891%2C3216&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Anna Sabramowicz/Unsplash</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s latest <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/climate-change/State-of-the-Climate">State of the Climate Report</a> offers grim reading. As if recent floods weren’t bad enough, the report warns of worsening fire seasons, more drought years and, when rain comes, more intense downpours. It begs the question: is it too late to avoid dangerous warming? </p>
<p>At the COP27 climate summit in Egypt some states <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/16/climate/cop27-global-warming-1-5-celsius.html">began to question</a> whether the target to limit global warming to 1.5°C this century should be dropped. The commitment was ultimately retained, but it remains unlikely we’ll meet it. </p>
<p>This means attention is turning to other options for climate action, including large-scale <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/">carbon removal</a>. </p>
<p>Carbon removal refers to human activities that take carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it (ideally permanently) – in rock formations, land or ocean reservoirs. The more common, and least controversial, forms of carbon removal are tree-planting, mangrove restoration and enhancing soil carbon. </p>
<p>All forms of carbon removal - including natural and high-tech measures - are defined as forms of <a href="http://www.geoengineering.ox.ac.uk/www.geoengineering.ox.ac.uk/what-is-geoengineering/what-is-geoengineering/">geoengineering</a>. All are increasingly part of the global climate discussion. </p>
<p>Proponents argue carbon removal is required at a massive scale <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/01/11/1071282973/as-carbon-removal-gains-traction-economists-imagine-a-new-market-to-save-the-pla">to avoid</a> dangerous warming. But the practice is fraught. Successfully stripping carbon from the atmosphere at the scale our planet requires is a deeply uncertain prospect.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-climate-what-australians-need-to-know-about-major-new-report-195136">State of the climate: what Australians need to know about major new report</a>
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<h2>Limiting global warming to 1.5°C is getting harder</h2>
<p>In 2015 the international community set a goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C, and preferably to 1.5°C this century, compared to pre-industrial levels. Seven years later, global emissions <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/10/1129912">are not on track</a> to achieve this. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-climate-what-australians-need-to-know-about-major-new-report-195136">State of the Climate Report</a> released this week found Australia has already warmed by 1.47°C. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says the planet overall has heated by 1.09°C. </p>
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<p>Renewable energy is growing rapidly, but so too is the use of <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/defying-expectations-co2-emissions-from-global-fossil-fuel-combustion-are-set-to-grow-in-2022-by-only-a-fraction-of-last-year-s-big-increase">oil and coal</a>. The emissions “budget” that would limit warming to 1.5°C is <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/4811/2022/">almost spent</a>.</p>
<p>The IPCC <a href="https://theconversation.com/on-top-of-drastic-emissions-cuts-ipcc-finds-large-scale-co-removal-from-air-will-be-essential-to-meeting-targets-180663">said</a> in a report this year that large-scale deployment of carbon dioxide removal was “unavoidable” if the world is to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>It followed an IPCC <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">report</a> in 2018 containing scenarios in which warming could be limited to 1.5°C. These scenarios required significant emission reductions along with carbon removal of between 100–1,000 billion tonnes of CO₂ by 2100. For context, global annual energy emissions are now approximately <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2021/co2-emissions">31 billion tonnes of CO₂</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/on-top-of-drastic-emissions-cuts-ipcc-finds-large-scale-co-removal-from-air-will-be-essential-to-meeting-targets-180663">On top of drastic emissions cuts, IPCC finds large-scale CO₂ removal from air will be "essential" to meeting targets</a>
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<p>Today, policy planners often <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/carbon-removal-unavoidable-as-climate-dangers-grow-new-ipcc-report-says/">assume</a> large-scale carbon removal will become necessary. Meanwhile, critics worry that the promise of carbon removal will <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/07/08/1027908/carbon-removal-hype-is-a-dangerous-distraction-climate-change/">delay other actions</a> to mitigate climate change. </p>
<p>Indeed, some critics question if large-scale removal will <a href="https://www.eco-business.com/news/carbon-capture-and-storage-wont-work-critics-say/">ever be feasible</a>, saying it’s unlikely to be developed in time nor work effectively.</p>
<h2>What does carbon removal look like?</h2>
<p>Cramming centuries of carbon pollution into the biosphere won’t be easy. One key challenge is making the storage permanent.</p>
<p>Consider trees. While <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/forests-ipcc-special-report-land-use-7-things-know">forests store</a> a lot of carbon, if they burn then the carbon goes straight back into the atmosphere. What’s more, there’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/there-arent-enough-trees-in-the-world-to-offset-societys-carbon-emissions-and-there-never-will-be-158181">not enough land</a> for forests to deliver negative emissions on the scales we require to limit global warming. </p>
<p>Carbon removal by planting new forests (afforestation) can also create <a href="https://doi.org/10.2458/v27i1.23493">social injustices</a>. In some cases Indigenous communities have <a href="https://theconversation.com/land-culture-livelihood-what-indigenous-people-stand-to-lose-from-climate-solutions-170083">lost control of homelands</a> appropriated for carbon storage. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/land-culture-livelihood-what-indigenous-people-stand-to-lose-from-climate-solutions-170083">Land, culture, livelihood: what Indigenous people stand to lose from climate 'solutions'</a>
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<p>As a result, some <a href="https://petercook.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/file/0007/3454927/NETs-report.pdf">experts</a> and civil society <a href="https://carboncapturecoalition.org/about-us/">groups</a> are calling for more complex methods of carbon removal. Two widely discussed examples include “direct air capture and storage” (use fans to force air through carbon-capturing filters) and “bioenergy, carbon capture and storage” (grow forests, burn them for electricity, capture and store the carbon).</p>
<p>In each case, the goal is to permanently sequester captured carbon in underground <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2019.00009/full">geologic formations</a>. This will likely offer more permanent carbon removal than “natural solutions” such as planting trees. Their lower land requirements mean they should also be easier to scale. </p>
<p>However, these higher-tech methods are also more expensive and often lack public support. Consider plans for the <a href="https://carbonherald.com/progress-on-co2-capture-plan-for-sizewell-c-nuclear-plant/">Sizewell Nuclear Power Station</a> in the United Kingdom to power “direct air capture” of carbon dioxide. Sizewell is promising carbon negative electricity, but nuclear-powered negative emissions are unlikely to be popular or cheap.</p>
<p>One Australian start-up has plans for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/02/australian-company-secures-700000-deal-for-carbon-capture-and-storage-machine">solar-powered direct air capture</a> of CO₂. However, this project’s costs are prohibitively high.</p>
<p>Much social learning will be needed before large-scale carbon removal of any type can become a thing. For now, we need to democratically review which, if any, carbon removal methods are actually a good idea. </p>
<h2>Carbon removal credits could be dodgy</h2>
<p>As governments begin to grasp the difficulties in decarbonising sectors such as agriculture and aviation, they have begun to look to carbon removal technologies to meet their net-zero emissions pledges. </p>
<p>For example, in the United States, the Biden administration’s <a href="https://www.emergingtechbrew.com/stories/2022/08/24/the-carbon-removal-industry-sees-the-inflation-reduction-act-as-a-big-win-for-dac">Inflation Reduction</a> and <a href="https://carbonherald.com/bidens-chips-act-boosts-carbon-removal-research-with-1-billion/#:%7E:text=Biden's%20CHIPS%20Act%20Boosts%20Carbon%20Removal%20Research%20With%20%241%20Billion,-byDimana%20Doneva&text=U.S.%20President%20Joe%20Biden%20has,Department%20current%20budget%20for%20RD%26D.">CHIPS</a> Acts promise massive new carbon removal programs.</p>
<p>At COP27, <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/cop27-key-outcomes-agreed-at-the-un-climate-talks-in-sharm-el-sheikh/">negotiators considered</a> how carbon removals should be defined internationally. At stake is which carbon removal projects will be able to generate “tradeable” offsets. </p>
<p>Most decisions at COP27 ended up being delayed or referred to working groups. Nevertheless, civil society observers worried that dodgy carbon removal <a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-au/Making+Climate+Policy+Work-p-9781509541805">credits might undermine</a> the Paris Agreement’s integrity. </p>
<p>When credits are awarded to projects that <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-blew-the-whistle-on-australias-central-climate-policy-heres-what-a-new-federal-government-probe-must-fix-185894">don’t really capture carbon</a> or do so only temporarily, then carbon reduction schemes lose all credibility.</p>
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<h2>How to avoid integrity issues</h2>
<p>Assessing the material and social impacts of carbon removal – whether via a “natural solution” or a new technology – will first require small-scale deployment. </p>
<p>To avoid integrity issues, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1162/glep_a_00643">world will need</a> robust regulations on how carbon removal is conducted. This includes:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>agreed standards to measure carbon removal in ways that rule out dodgy or temporary carbon removal</p></li>
<li><p>more advanced carbon removal technologies that bring down the cost and reduce land and energy requirements</p></li>
<li><p>more sophisticated ways of aligning carbon removal with social justice so that sovereignty and humanity rights are prioritised over carbon markets</p></li>
<li><p>a system of incentives to encourage carbon removal. States, companies and other actors should be rewarded for their climate restoration work, but these efforts must be additional to actual emissions reduction.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Of course, the best thing to do is to stop emitting carbon. However, preserving a safe climate will likely require us to go further. It’s time to start a democratic discussion about carbon removal.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/there-arent-enough-trees-in-the-world-to-offset-societys-carbon-emissions-and-there-never-will-be-158181">There aren’t enough trees in the world to offset society’s carbon emissions – and there never will be</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195097/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Symons sits on the advisory board of RePlanet (a European environmental NGO) and is a councillor of the Australian Institution of International Affairs NSW.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt McDonald has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the UK's Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p>The best thing to do is to stop emitting carbon. However, preserving a safe climate will likely require us to go further.Jonathan Symons, Senior Lecturer, Macquarie School of Social Sciences, Macquarie UniversityMatt McDonald, Associate Professor of International Relations, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1952652022-11-23T17:50:44Z2022-11-23T17:50:44ZCOP27 roundup: what went wrong and what happens next<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497059/original/file-20221123-16-kti78.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6000%2C3997&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/smoke-emission-factory-chimney-cloud-obscured-1947723130">Ja-aljona/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>COP27, the latest UN climate change summit which was held in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, has been condemned for failing to summon an adequate response to the escalating climate crisis. Negotiators did manage to preserve a commitment made in Paris in 2015 to limit global warming to 1.5°C. But emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, which rose by 1% globally in 2022, mean the temperature at which Earth will eventually stabilise is slipping out of humanity’s control.</p>
<p>“The world could still, theoretically, meet its goal of <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-cop27-all-signs-point-to-world-blowing-past-the-1-5-degrees-global-warming-limit-heres-what-we-can-still-do-about-it-195080">keeping global warming under 1.5°C</a>, a level many scientists consider a dangerous threshold,” says Peter Schlosser, a professor of Earth and environmental sciences at Arizona State University. “Realistically, that’s unlikely to happen.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/after-cop27-all-signs-point-to-world-blowing-past-the-1-5-degrees-global-warming-limit-heres-what-we-can-still-do-about-it-195080">After COP27, all signs point to world blowing past the 1.5 degrees global warming limit – here's what we can still do about it</a>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p>“Attempts at the climate talks to get all countries to agree to phase out coal, oil, natural gas and all fossil fuel subsidies failed. And countries have done little to strengthen their commitments to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the past year,” Schlosser says.</p>
<p>The burning of fossil fuels accounted for <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report_smaller.pdf">86% of all greenhouse gas emissions</a> between 2011 and 2021 according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC. The consensus on eliminating them at Sharm El-Sheikh remained frozen from negotiations in Glasgow a year earlier, where countries could only agree to “phase down unabated coal power” and “eliminate inefficient fossil fuel subsidies”.</p>
<h2>Fossil fuel industry dominated</h2>
<p>The stalemate over addressing the primary cause of climate change is partly a result of developments which have strained energy supply and affordability during the past two years, say Fergus Green, a lecturer in political theory and public policy at UCL, and Harro van Asselt, a professor of climate law and policy at the University of Eastern Finland.</p>
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<img alt="A motorcylist brandishes a rupee note in front a petrol pump." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497061/original/file-20221123-18-ripb71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497061/original/file-20221123-18-ripb71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497061/original/file-20221123-18-ripb71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497061/original/file-20221123-18-ripb71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497061/original/file-20221123-18-ripb71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497061/original/file-20221123-18-ripb71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497061/original/file-20221123-18-ripb71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The ongoing energy crisis may have stymied progress on fossil fuel subsidies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/new-delhi-india-june-11-2021-1993426997">PradeepGaurs/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>But more significant is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-flinched-on-phasing-out-all-fossil-fuels-whats-next-for-the-fight-to-keep-them-in-the-ground-194941">entrenched power of the fossil fuel industry</a>, which was well represented in Egypt, the pair say.</p>
<p>“Large oil and gas producers are profiting handsomely from current market prices and have lobbied governments to permit them to explore and drill for yet more oil and gas. At COP27, there were more oil and gas industry lobbyists than the combined number of delegates from the ten countries most affected by climate change. Little wonder COP27 did not yield consensus on phasing down all fossil fuels.”</p>
<p>Alix Dietzel, a senior lecturer in climate justice at the University of Bristol, was in Sharm El-Sheikh as an academic observer and saw how many of those attending were shut out.</p>
<p>“Observers have access to the main plenaries and ceremonies, the pavilion exhibition spaces and side events. The negotiation rooms, however, are largely off limits. Most of the day is spent listening to speeches, networking and asking questions at side-events.”</p>
<h2>Conference organisation made things worse</h2>
<p>Dietzel studies how decisions are made as part of the transition to low-carbon societies. She argues that the UN negotiations privilege the most powerful people and groups to produce treaties such as the Paris agreement.</p>
<p>“At last year’s COP26, men spoke 74% of the time, indigenous communities faced language barriers and racism and those who could not obtain visas were excluded entirely,” she says.</p>
<p>“Despite being advertised as ‘Africa’s COP’, <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-how-the-fossil-fuel-lobby-crowded-out-calls-for-climate-justice-195041">COP27 further hampered inclusion</a>. The run up was dogged by accusations of inflated hotel prices and concerns over surveillance, and warnings about Egypt’s brutal police state. The right to protest was limited, with campaigners complaining of intimidation and censorship.”</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-how-the-fossil-fuel-lobby-crowded-out-calls-for-climate-justice-195041">COP27: how the fossil fuel lobby crowded out calls for climate justice</a>
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<p>Mark Maslin, a professor of Earth system science at UCL, was also at COP27. He and fellow researchers Priti Parikh, Richard Taylor and Simon Chin-Yee <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-will-be-remembered-as-a-failure-heres-what-went-wrong-194982">say the Egyptian presidency</a> underestimated the task of hosting:</p>
<p>“When the negotiations carried over to the wee hours of Sunday morning, Egyptian COP27 president, Sameh Shoukry, said: ‘It is really up to the parties [countries] to find consensus’. This is in stark contrast to COP26, where the president of the conference, Alok Sharma, fought to the bitter end to secure an agreement.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-will-be-remembered-as-a-failure-heres-what-went-wrong-194982">COP27 will be remembered as a failure – here's what went wrong</a>
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<h2>Rare victory on loss and damage</h2>
<p>Developing countries overcame these disadvantages to secure an important victory at the summit after 31 years of campaigning: wealthy parties, including the US and the EU, finally agreed to the establishment of <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27s-loss-and-damage-fund-for-developing-countries-could-be-a-breakthrough-or-another-empty-climate-promise-194992">a loss and damage funding facility</a>. This would pay the world’s most vulnerable regions for the ravages of climate change that they cannot adapt to, such as mounting storms, droughts and floods. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27s-loss-and-damage-fund-for-developing-countries-could-be-a-breakthrough-or-another-empty-climate-promise-194992">COP27's ‘loss and damage’ fund for developing countries could be a breakthrough – or another empty climate promise</a>
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<p>“It was an important and hard-fought acknowledgement of the damage – and of who bears at least some responsibility for the cost,” says Adil Najam, a professor of international relations at Boston University. “But the fund might not materialise in the way that developing countries hope.”</p>
<p>Najam explains that the agreement, which eschews any notion of liability on the part of rich and historically high-emitting countries, promises to begin the process of establishing a fund which will be made up of voluntary contributions. </p>
<p>“Given that the much-trumpeted US$100 billion a year that wealthy nations promised in 2015 to provide for developing nations has not yet materialised, believing that rich countries will be pouring their heart into this new venture seems to be yet another triumph of hope over experience,” he says.</p>
<p>There is no guarantee the fund will generate new sources of finance – it may repackage existing aid. Najam says the question of who will pay and who will be paid awaits an answer at next year’s set of negotiations: COP28 in Dubai.</p>
<p>Yet, the agreement means that who is responsible for the climate crisis and who deserves restitution will remain at the centre of all future conferences. “That is big,” Najam says, and testament to the organising of developing countries – as well as the egregious outlook for many as the world heats up.</p>
<p>“The [Pakistan] floods, in addition to a spate of other recent climate calamities, provided developing countries – which happened to be represented at COP27 by an energised Pakistan as the chair of the ‘G-77 plus China,’ a coalition of more than 170 developing countries – with the motivation and the authority to push a loss and damage agenda more vigorously than ever before.”</p>
<h2>How to keep the pressure building</h2>
<p>Even the inclusion of fossil fuels in the agreed text, as underwhelming as the language is, <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-flinched-on-phasing-out-all-fossil-fuels-whats-next-for-the-fight-to-keep-them-in-the-ground-194941">hints at the pressure slowly building on governments</a>, Green and van Asselt argue. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-flinched-on-phasing-out-all-fossil-fuels-whats-next-for-the-fight-to-keep-them-in-the-ground-194941">COP27 flinched on phasing out 'all fossil fuels'. What's next for the fight to keep them in the ground?</a>
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<p>“International conferences such as COP27 catalyse emerging norms by specifying them in formal declarations,” they say. The result is “a growing sense among governments that certain activities relating to fossil fuels (like generating electricity from coal without capturing the CO₂ and policies which make fossil fuels cheaper to extract and consume) are becoming illegitimate”.</p>
<p>Outside of the UN summit cycle, campaigners and diplomats from the most vulnerable states should seize opportunities to undermine the fossil fuel industry’s grip on the world’s response to the climate crisis, the pair say.</p>
<p>“Building on a global campaign for such an agreement, the small island nations of Tuvalu and Vanuatu have called for a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty. We suggest two ways to advance these efforts which draw on our recent research.”</p>
<p>“First, Tuvalu and Vanuatu could encourage their Pacific Island counterparts to create a regional fossil free zone treaty that prohibits the extraction and transportation of fossil fuels throughout the territories and territorial waters of members.</p>
<p>"Second, more must be done to name and shame governments, especially rich ones, who are expanding how much fossil fuel they extract and burn.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195265/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Developing countries snatched a rare victory at a summit swamped by fossil fuel lobbyists.Jack Marley, Environment + Energy Editor, UK editionLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1948192022-11-23T04:24:24Z2022-11-23T04:24:24ZAdapting to a hotter planet has never been more important, and progress edged forward at COP27<p>As the COP27 climate summit <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-one-big-breakthrough-but-ultimately-an-inadequate-response-to-the-climate-crisis-194056">drew to a close</a> over the weekend, it’s important to acknowledge that progress was made on climate adaptation – even if more can be done.</p>
<p>“Climate adaptation” is a term for how countries adapt to the impacts of climate change. It could be, for instance, by strengthening infrastructure to better withstand disasters, moving towns out of floodplains, or transforming the agriculture sector to minimise food insecurity. </p>
<p>As the costs of disasters climb, working out who will finance climate adaptation has become increasingly urgent for developing nations. For decades, they’ve called upon wealthy countries – largely responsible for causing the climate crisis in the first place – to foot the bill.</p>
<p>So let’s explore what COP27 achieved, how these achievements might translate into tangible commitments, and what must happen now to give everyone a fighting chance to survive on a hotter planet.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Adaptation & Agriculture day at COP27.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>A thorny issue</h2>
<p>The thorniest issues at climate change negotiations are about finance: who is giving, who is receiving, how is the money received and what kind of finance is made available. </p>
<p>Developed countries don’t have a good track record on this. In 2009, they committed to mobilising US$100 billion per year of climate finance by 2020 – a target that <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02846-3">remains unmet</a>. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-one-big-breakthrough-but-ultimately-an-inadequate-response-to-the-climate-crisis-194056">COP27: one big breakthrough but ultimately an inadequate response to the climate crisis</a>
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<p>What’s more, most climate finance so far has been <a href="https://www.oecd.org/environment/statement-by-the-oecd-secretary-general-on-climate-finance-trends-to-2020.htm">directed towards</a> helping developing nations mitigate their emissions, rather than for adaptation. </p>
<p>As Dina Saleh, the Regional Director of the United Nations International Fund for Agricultural Development, <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/11/1130517?utm_source=UN+News+-+Newsletter&utm_campaign=b64f0c7417-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2022_11_12_06_24&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_fdbf1af606-b64f0c7417-107091541">explained</a> during the conference, failing to help rural populations adapt could lead to more poverty, migrations and conflict. She said:</p>
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<p>We are calling on world leaders from developed nations to honour their pledge to provide the $100 billion a year in climate finance to developing nations and to channel half of that [for] climate adaptation.</p>
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<h2>Adaptation finance still falls short</h2>
<p>The United Nations has established <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/introduction-to-climate-finance#:%7E:text=In%20addition%20to%20providing%20guidance,the%20Kyoto%20Protocol%20in%202001.">different funds</a> to channel adaptation finance, including the Least Developed Countries Fund, Special Climate Change Fund and Adaptation Fund. </p>
<p>At COP27, eight countries pledged US$105.6 million <a href="https://www.thegef.org/newsroom/press-releases/countries-pledge-added-support-gef-funds-urgent-climate-adaptation">for adaptation</a> via the Least Developed Countries Fund and Special Climate Change Fund, including Sweden, Germany and Ireland. Others, such as the United States and Canada, expressed potential future financial commitments. </p>
<p>These funds are in addition to the US$413 million promised at COP26 in Glasgow last year, via the Least Developed Countries Fund. The money <a href="https://www.thegef.org/newsroom/press-releases/countries-pledge-added-support-gef-funds-urgent-climate-adaptation">will target</a> the most urgently needed adaptation efforts, such as strengthening infrastructure, social safety nets and diversifying livelihoods. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27s-loss-and-damage-fund-for-developing-countries-could-be-a-breakthrough-or-another-empty-climate-promise-194992">COP27's ‘loss and damage’ fund for developing countries could be a breakthrough – or another empty climate promise</a>
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<p>There is also a specific new funding for small-island developing states. While this development has been welcomed by the <a href="https://www.aosis.org">Alliance of Small Island States</a>, it also says faster processes are needed to make the money available. </p>
<p>Small island nations such as Tuvalu are already experiencing severe climate impacts, and the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter15.pdf">projections</a> are dire. For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found some atoll islands are likely to experience coral bleaching every year by 2040. </p>
<p>These islands are also particularly vulnerable to tropical cyclones. One single large event can set development back years. For example, in 2016 tropical cyclone Winston took out over <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2022/04/11/on-the-frontlines-of-climate-change-small-island-states-can-lead-in-resilience">a third of</a> Fiji’s GDP in about 36 hours. </p>
<p>Similarly, other highly vulnerable nations across Africa and Asia are asking for easier access to adaptation finance. The <a href="https://www.adaptation-fund.org">Adaptation Fund</a> included an innovation that gave countries easier access to money, and ensured it responds directly to each country’s needs. </p>
<p>At COP27, this fund received over US$230 million in new pledges. However, it <a href="https://www.adaptation-fund.org/adaptation-fund-receives-over-us-230-million-mobilized-in-2022-for-the-most-climate-vulnerable-at-cop27-in-egypt/?utm_source=Climate+Weekly&utm_campaign=260c95efbe-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2022_11_06_09_26_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_bf939f9418-260c95efbe-407951649">currently has</a> <em>unfunded</em> adaptation projects worth US$380 million in the pipeline, signalling the urgent need to ramp up finance. </p>
<h2>Progress is edging forward</h2>
<p>The Paris Agreement in 2015 set the “global goal on adaptation” to drive collective progress on climate adaptation worldwide. At COP27, <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/adaptation-and-resilience/workstreams/glasgow-sharm-el-sheikh-WP-GGGA">countries agreed</a> to develop a framework for this goal in 2023. This includes gender-responsive approaches, and science-based metrics and targets to track progress.</p>
<p>Another big-ticket item is the “global stocktake” on adaptation, which measures progress at the national level on fulfilling Paris Agreement obligations. </p>
<p>At COP27, it was noted <a href="https://napcentral.org/submitted-naps">only 40 countries</a> so far have submitted their national adaptation plans, which identify adaptation priorities and strategies for reducing climate vulnerability. Questions remain about how to accelerate the planning, implementation and financing of these plans.</p>
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<p>The Sharm-el-Seikh <a href="https://climatechampions.unfccc.int/cop27-presidency-announces-ambitous-climate-resilience-agenda/">Adaptation Agenda</a> was also launched by the two UN-appointed High-Level Climate Champions. These seek to engage non-state actors, such as cities, businesses and investors, to boost ambition for climate adaptation. </p>
<p>The agenda’s ultimate aim is to help 4 billion people become more resilient to climate change impacts by 2030. It has 30 adaptation outcomes to aim for, including:</p>
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<li><p>protecting 3 billion people from disasters by installing smart and early warning systems in the most vulnerable communities</p></li>
<li><p>investing US$4 billion to secure the future of 15 million hectares of mangroves worldwide </p></li>
<li><p>mobilising US$140-300 billion across both public and private finance sources for adaptation.</p></li>
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<h2>What now?</h2>
<p>Many pledges on adaptation finance have been made in COP26 and COP27, and the next step is to get the money where it is most urgently needed. </p>
<p>As climate impacts are already unfolding rapidly, communities worldwide must develop the capacity to plan for climate adaptation. This requires action at every level, and shouldn’t be left to local communities alone. </p>
<p>Making progress on climate adaptation in the coming years is crucial. Early action and planning can save thousands of dollars, but only if we have robust processes in place to make decisions before impacts occur. This calls for more planning, investments and collaboration across local, regional, state and international levels. </p>
<p>But most important is the willingness to change our mindset. We must stop operating in a business-as-usual model and push for a more sustainable world in this changing climate. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-changes-impact-on-mental-health-is-overlooked-and-misunderstood-heres-what-can-be-done-194128">Climate change's impact on mental health is overlooked and misunderstood – here's what can be done</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194819/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Johanna Nalau has received funding from the Australian Research Council for her climate adaptation research. She is is also a Lead Author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II on the Small Islands chapter, and a Lead Author for the Summary for Policymakers. She is also the Co-chair of the Science Committee in the World Adaptation Science Program.</span></em></p>As the costs of disasters climb, working out who will finance climate adaptation has become increasingly urgent for developing nations.Johanna Nalau, Research Fellow, Climate Adaptation, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1950802022-11-22T13:29:29Z2022-11-22T13:29:29ZAfter COP27, all signs point to world blowing past the 1.5 degrees global warming limit – here’s what we can still do about it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496641/original/file-20221122-13-g9a1us.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=61%2C53%2C5035%2C3293&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Young activists have been pushing to keep a 1.5-Celsius limit, knowing their future is at stake.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/COP27ClimateSummit/2443020be8db4d02ab7185c517ec5017/photo">AP Photo/Nariman El-Mofty</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The world could still, theoretically, meet its goal of keeping global warming <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">under 1.5 degrees Celsius</a>, a level many scientists <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2865/a-degree-of-concern-why-global-temperatures-matter/">consider a dangerous threshold</a>. Realistically, that’s unlikely to happen.</p>
<p>Part of the problem was evident at <a href="https://cop27.eg/#/">COP27</a>, the United Nations climate conference in Egypt.</p>
<p>While nations’ climate negotiators were successfully fighting to “keep 1.5 alive” as the global goal in the <a href="https://unfccc.int/cop27/auv">official agreement</a>, reached Nov. 20, 2022, some of their countries were negotiating <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/11/tanzania-signs-natural-gas-deal-with-equinor-and-shell">new fossil fuel deals</a>, driven in part by the global energy crisis. Any expansion of fossil fuels – the primary driver of climate change – makes keeping warming under 1.5 C (2.7 Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial times much harder.</p>
<p>Attempts at the climate talks to get all countries to agree to phase out coal, oil, natural gas and all fossil fuel subsidies failed. And countries have done <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">little to strengthen their commitments</a> to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the past year.</p>
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<p>There have been positive moves, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/these-machines-scrub-greenhouse-gases-from-the-air-an-inventor-of-direct-air-capture-technology-shows-how-it-works-172306">advances in technology</a>, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/levelized-cost-of-energy">falling prices for renewable energy</a> and countries committing to <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-fixing-methane-leaks-from-the-oil-and-gas-industry-can-be-a-climate-game-changer-one-that-pays-for-itself-194346">cut their methane emissions</a>. </p>
<p>But all signs now point toward a scenario in which the world will <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/10/1129912">overshoot the 1.5 C limit</a>, likely by a large amount. The World Meteorological Organization estimates global temperatures have a <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-update-5050-chance-of-global-temperature-temporarily-reaching-15%C2%B0c-threshold">50-50 chance of reaching 1.5C</a> of warming, at least temporarily, in the next five years.</p>
<p>That doesn’t mean humanity can just give up.</p>
<h2>Why 1.5 degrees?</h2>
<p>During the last quarter of the 20th century, <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/">climate change due to human activities</a> became an issue of survival for the future of life on the planet. Since at least the 1980s, <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1103618">scientific evidence for global warming has been increasingly firm </a>, and scientists have established limits of global warming that cannot be exceeded to avoid moving from a global climate crisis to a planetary-scale climate catastrophe.</p>
<p>There is <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-3/">consensus</a> <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-3/">among climate scientists</a>, myself included, that 1.5 C of global warming is a threshold beyond which humankind would dangerously interfere with the climate system. </p>
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<p>We know from the reconstruction of historical climate records that, over the past 12,000 years, life was able to thrive on Earth at a global annual average temperature of around 14 C (57 F). As one would expect from the behavior of a complex system, the temperatures varied, but they never warmed by more than about 1.5 C during this <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pre-holocene-climate-is-returning-and-it-wont-be-fun-27742">relatively stable climate regime</a>.</p>
<p>Today, with the world <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">1.2 C warmer</a> than pre-industrial times, people are <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">already experiencing the effects</a> of climate change in more locations, more forms and at higher frequencies and amplitudes. </p>
<p>Climate model projections clearly show that <a href="https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-change-impacts/predictions-future-global-climate">warming beyond</a> 1.5 C will <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">dramatically increase the risk</a> of extreme weather events, more frequent wildfires with higher intensity, sea level rise, and changes in flood and drought patterns with implications for food systems collapse, among other adverse impacts. And there can be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950">abrupt transitions</a>, the impacts of which will result in major challenges on local to global scales.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/MR6-sgRqW0k?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Tipping points: Warmer ocean water is contributing to the collapse of the Thwaites Glacier, a major contributor to sea level rise with global consequences.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Steep reductions and negative emissions</h2>
<p>Meeting the 1.5 goal at this point will <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/cut-global-emissions-by-76-percent-every-year-for-next-decade-to-meet-15degc-paris-target-un-report">require steep reductions</a> in carbon dioxide emissions, but that alone isn’t enough. It will <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/28_EASAC%20Report%20on%20Negative%20Emission%20Technologies.pdf">also require “negative emissions”</a> to reduce the concentration of carbon dioxide that human activities have already put into the atmosphere.</p>
<p>Carbon dioxide lingers in the atmosphere for decades to centuries, so just stopping emissions doesn’t stop its warming effect. Technology exists that can pull carbon dioxide out of the air and lock it away. It’s still only operating at a very small scale, but corporate agreements like <a href="https://climeworks.com/news/climeworks-extends-collaboration-with-microsoft">Microsoft’s 10-year commitment to pay for carbon removed</a> could help scale it up.</p>
<p>A report in 2018 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change determined that meeting the 1.5 C goal <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2018/10/08/summary-for-policymakers-of-ipcc-special-report-on-global-warming-of-1-5c-approved-by-governments/">would require cutting</a> carbon dioxide emissions by 50% globally by 2030 – plus significant <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-10-ways-negative-emissions-could-slow-climate-change/">negative emissions</a> from both technology and natural sources by 2050 up to about half of present-day emissions.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496592/original/file-20221121-12-v2vf3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496592/original/file-20221121-12-v2vf3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496592/original/file-20221121-12-v2vf3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496592/original/file-20221121-12-v2vf3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496592/original/file-20221121-12-v2vf3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496592/original/file-20221121-12-v2vf3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496592/original/file-20221121-12-v2vf3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A direct air capture project in Iceland stores captured carbon dioxide underground in basalt formations, where chemical reactions mineralize it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climeworks.com/news/climeworks-launches-orca">Climeworks</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Can we still hold warming to 1.5 C?</h2>
<p>Since the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris climate agreement</a> was signed in 2015, countries have made some progress in their <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">pledges to reduce emissions</a>, but at a pace that is way too slow to keep warming below 1.5 C. Carbon dioxide <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co-emissions-by-region">emissions are still rising</a>, as are carbon dioxide <a href="https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/">concentrations in the atmosphere</a>.</p>
<p>A recent report by the United Nations Environment Program <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">highlights the shortfalls</a>. The world is on track to produce 58 gigatons of carbon dioxide-equivalent greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 – more than twice where it should be for the path to 1.5 C. The result would be an average global temperature increase of 2.7 C (4.9 F) in this century, nearly double the 1.5 C target. </p>
<p>Given the gap between countries’ actual commitments and the emissions cuts required to keep temperatures to 1.5 C, it appears <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/">practically impossible</a> to stay within the 1.5 C goal.</p>
<p>Global emissions aren’t close to plateauing, and with the amount of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere, it is very likely that the world will reach the 1.5 C warming level <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">within the next five to 10 years</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496584/original/file-20221121-20-3rz8zx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496584/original/file-20221121-20-3rz8zx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496584/original/file-20221121-20-3rz8zx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496584/original/file-20221121-20-3rz8zx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496584/original/file-20221121-20-3rz8zx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496584/original/file-20221121-20-3rz8zx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496584/original/file-20221121-20-3rz8zx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496584/original/file-20221121-20-3rz8zx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">With current policies and pledges, the world will far exceed the 1.5 C goal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/">Climate Action Tracker</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>How large the overshoot will be and for how long it will exist critically hinges on <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2018/10/08/summary-for-policymakers-of-ipcc-special-report-on-global-warming-of-1-5c-approved-by-governments/">accelerating emissions cuts and scaling up</a> negative emissions solutions, including carbon capture technology.</p>
<p>At this point, nothing short of an extraordinary and unprecedented effort to cut emissions will save the 1.5 C goal. We <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2022/04/04/ipcc-ar6-wgiii-pressrelease/">know what can be done</a> – the question is whether people are ready for a radical and immediate change of the actions that lead to climate change, primarily a transformation away from a fossil fuel-based energy system.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195080/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Schlosser does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A leading climate scientist explains why going over 1.5 degrees Celsius puts the world in a danger zone.Peter Schlosser, Vice President and Vice Provost of the Julie Ann Wrigley Global Futures Laboratory, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1949412022-11-21T16:42:31Z2022-11-21T16:42:31ZCOP27 flinched on phasing out ‘all fossil fuels’. What’s next for the fight to keep them in the ground?<p>The latest UN climate change summit (COP27) concluded, once again, with a <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/cop27-egypt-sharm-climate-b2228661.html">tussle</a> over the place of fossil fuels in the global economy. </p>
<p>An agreement by the world’s governments to phase out all fossil fuels would have been a welcome progression from last year’s Glasgow climate pact. <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cp2021_01_adv.pdf">It called on countries to</a> “[accelerate] efforts towards the phasedown of unabated coal power and phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies”, making it the first UN treaty to acknowledge the need to do something about the main source of greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>But at COP27, widespread anxieties about the cost and availability of energy made many governments cautious about expressing a clear intention to phase out all fossil fuels in the <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cop27_auv_2_cover%20decision.pdf?download">resulting agreement</a>. The <a href="https://unfccc.int/documents/624444">COP27 text</a> reiterated the COP26 decision but failed to broaden it to encompass oil and gas, despite a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/india-seeks-cop27-deal-phase-down-all-fossil-fuels-sources-2022-11-12/">proposal by India</a> to that end (a move that would have helped take the emphasis off coal, of which it is a major consumer).</p>
<p>Still, growing support for such an extension is evident. More than 80 countries (including the EU and US) <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-16/us-backs-tough-fossil-fuel-phase-down-pledge-at-climate-summit">supported</a> India’s proposal. Many nations are building international agreements outside of the UN negotiation process. After the failure of COP27, the question is what should happen next in the fight against continued fossil fuel use.</p>
<p>There is no doubt that, to preserve a liveable climate, the extraction and burning of coal, oil and gas must be <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6228/pdf">rapidly reduced</a> and, depending on how optimistic you are about <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2017.1346498">carbon capture technologies</a>, phased out altogether.</p>
<p>Despite large <a href="https://productiongap.org/">planned increases</a> in fossil fuel production, <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/world-energy-outlook-2022-shows-the-global-energy-crisis-can-be-a-historic-turning-point-towards-a-cleaner-and-more-secure-future">recent research</a> (released just before COP27) found, for the first time, that global demand for each of the fossil fuels will peak or plateau in all scenarios within 15 years. This is partly due to attempts to <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_22_3131">reduce energy use</a> and increase renewables in the wake of the gas shortage created by sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. </p>
<p>As the dangers of extracting and burning fossil fuels have become increasingly apparent, many experts, campaigners, international organisations and, increasingly, governments have contested the moral legitimacy of these activities. In a recent <a href="https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wcc.816">journal article</a>, we argued that the Glasgow agreement represented a breakthrough (albeit a modest one) in the emergence of international <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-017-2134-6">anti-fossil fuel norms</a>. </p>
<p>An international norm is a morally appropriate standard of behaviour among states (for example, prevailing norms prohibit foreign aggression, piracy, or the testing and use of nuclear weapons). International conferences such as COP27 catalyse emerging norms by specifying them in formal declarations.</p>
<p>COP decisions are not binding and the language on fossil fuels at COP26 was watered down during negotiations. But <a href="https://unfccc.int/documents/310475">the Glasgow text</a> reflected a growing sense among governments that certain activities relating to fossil fuels (like generating electricity from coal without capturing the CO₂ and policies which make fossil fuels cheaper to extract and consume) are becoming illegitimate.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three smokestacks on a power plant." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496505/original/file-20221121-24-x1zjt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496505/original/file-20221121-24-x1zjt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496505/original/file-20221121-24-x1zjt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496505/original/file-20221121-24-x1zjt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496505/original/file-20221121-24-x1zjt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496505/original/file-20221121-24-x1zjt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496505/original/file-20221121-24-x1zjt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Coal power: increasingly indefensible.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-coal-power-plant-high-2136951757">Bilanol/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The lack of progress on fossil fuels reflects the upheavals in the energy sector as well as the constraints of the climate negotiations themselves, which operate by consensus. This often produces decisions that reflect the lowest common denominator among nearly 200 countries with diverse energy profiles and interests, and COP27 was no exception. </p>
<p>Large oil and gas producers are <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/wrapup-global-oil-giants-rake-massive-profits-third-quarter-2022-10-28/">profiting handsomely</a> from current market prices and have <a href="https://influencemap.org/report/US-Oil-and-Gas-and-the-War-in-Ukraine-19009">lobbied</a> <a href="https://influencemap.org/multipage/Fossil-Fuels-9105">governments</a> to permit them to explore and drill for yet more oil and gas. At COP27, there were <a href="https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/11/10/fossil-fuel-lobbyists-outnumber-almost-every-national-delegation-at-cop27-data-shows">more oil and gas industry lobbyists</a> than the combined number of delegates from the ten countries most affected by climate change. Little wonder COP27 did not yield consensus on phasing down all fossil fuels. </p>
<p>Other international initiatives are not bound by such procedural constraints, and there was more progress on the sidelines of COP27. The <a href="https://beyondoilandgasalliance.com/">Beyond Oil & Gas Alliance</a> (Boga), an initiative launched around the time of COP26 by Denmark and Costa Rica that aims to phase out oil and gas production,
attracted <a href="https://beyondoilandgasalliance.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/BOGA_COP27_Press_Release.pdf">new members</a> Chile, Fiji and the US state of Washington, with Portugal upgraded to “core member” status. </p>
<p>Emulating a deal between South Africa and several wealthy countries from a year earlier, a new <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_22_6892">just energy transition partnership</a> was launched between Indonesia and Japan, Canada, the US, Denmark and others, to help Indonesia transition from coal to renewables.</p>
<h2>What more can be done?</h2>
<p>In the coming years, there will be growing civil society and diplomatic pressure for a phase-out of all fossil fuels in a COP decision. But independent initiatives among states, like Boga, must be nurtured in parallel, and the high-level pledges made in these initiatives must be implemented. </p>
<p>For instance, a group of nations <a href="https://ukcop26.org/statement-on-international-public-support-for-the-clean-energy-transition/">pledged</a> at COP26 to end public finance for fossil fuels by the end of 2022. While some countries are on track to meet this goal, <a href="https://priceofoil.org/2022/11/01/g20-increased-international-public-finance-for-clean-energy-is-the-solution-to-the-energy-crisis-not-more-fossil-investments/">others</a> are not following through.</p>
<p>Countries should also develop an international agreement to restrict and phase out fossil fuels. Building on a global <a href="https://fossilfueltreaty.org/">campaign</a> for such an agreement, the small island nations of Tuvalu and Vanuatu have <a href="https://fossilfueltreaty.org/tuvalu">called for</a> a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589811622000283">fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty</a>. We suggest two ways to advance these efforts which draw on our <a href="https://direct.mit.edu/glep/article/22/4/28/112377/Pathways-to-an-International-Agreement-to-Leave">recent</a> <a href="https://direct.mit.edu/glep/article/22/4/48/109317/Counting-Carbon-or-Counting-Coal-Anchoring-Climate">research</a>. </p>
<p>First, Tuvalu and Vanuatu could encourage their Pacific Island counterparts to create a regional <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2022.2118657">fossil free zone</a> treaty that prohibits the extraction and transportation of fossil fuels throughout the territories and territorial waters of members.</p>
<p>Second, more must be done to name and shame governments, especially rich ones, who are expanding how much fossil fuel they extract and burn. This effort demands <a href="https://productiongap.org/2021report/#R4">greater transparency</a> around government activities. A new <a href="https://fossilfuelregistry.org/">global registry of fossil fuels</a> is helping to catalogue this information. But governments should also <a href="https://direct.mit.edu/glep/article-abstract/22/4/48/109317/Counting-Carbon-or-Counting-Coal-Anchoring-Climate?redirectedFrom=fulltext">disclose all fossil fuel infrastructure</a> that is being planned or considered on their territory, or with their support. </p>
<p>The COP27 outcome is a timely reminder that curbing the growth in fossil fuels will not come about through consensus-oriented negotiations among governments that include those corrupted by the fossil fuel industry. It will require social movements pressuring leaders to legislate a managed phase out of fossil fuels, while ensuring a just transition for affected workers and communities. And it will require pioneering governments to work together internationally to forge new alliances that accelerate this goal.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fergus Green is affiliated with the campaign for Fossil Free Zones and the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Harro van Asselt has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement no. 101003866 (NDC ASPECTS). He is affiliated with the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative.</span></em></p>Smaller international deals and fossil free zones point a way forward.Fergus Green, Lecturer in Political Theory and Public Policy, UCLHarro van Asselt, Professor of Climate Law and Policy, University of Eastern Finland, Visiting Researcher, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University & Affiliated Researcher, Stockholm Environment InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1950412022-11-21T16:01:01Z2022-11-21T16:01:01ZCOP27: how the fossil fuel lobby crowded out calls for climate justice<p>COP27 has just wrapped up. Despite much excitement over a new fund to address “loss and damage” caused by climate change, there is also anger about perceived backsliding on commitments to lower emissions and phase out fossil fuels. </p>
<p>As an <a href="https://www.bristol.ac.uk/people/person/Alix-Dietzel-de568c8f-8312-4465-a8e3-be4d44d607dc/">academic expert in climate justice</a> who went along this year, hoping to make a difference, I share this anger.</p>
<p>“Together for Implementation” was the message as COP27 got underway on November 6 and some 30,000 people descended on the Egyptian resort town of Sharm El Sheik. The UNFCCC strictly regulates who can attend <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/parties-non-party-stakeholders/non-party-stakeholders/overview/observer-organizations">negotiations</a>. Parties (country negotiation teams), the media and observers (NGOs, IGOs and UN special agencies) must all be pre-approved. </p>
<p>I went along as an NGO observer, to represent the University of Bristol <a href="http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cabot/">Cabot Institute for the Environment</a>. Observers have access to the main plenaries and ceremonies, the pavilion exhibition spaces and side events. The negotiation rooms, however, are largely off limits. Most of the day is spent listening to speeches, networking and asking questions at side-events. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496511/original/file-20221121-14-sffl0l.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Woman sits in large conference room" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496511/original/file-20221121-14-sffl0l.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496511/original/file-20221121-14-sffl0l.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496511/original/file-20221121-14-sffl0l.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496511/original/file-20221121-14-sffl0l.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496511/original/file-20221121-14-sffl0l.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496511/original/file-20221121-14-sffl0l.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496511/original/file-20221121-14-sffl0l.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The author at the COP27 opening plenary.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Colin Nolden</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The main role of observers, then, is to apply indirect pressure on negotiators, report on what is happening and network. Meaningful impact on and participation in negotiations seems out of reach for many of the passionate people I met.</p>
<h2>Who does – and doesn’t – get a say</h2>
<p>It has long been known that who gets a say in climate change governance is skewed. As someone working on fair decision making as part of a just transition to less carbon-intensive lifestyles and a climate change-adapted society, it is clear that <a href="https://edinburghuniversitypress.com/book-global-justice-and-climate-governance.html">only the most powerful voices</a> are reflected in treaties such as the Paris Agreement. At last year’s COP26, men spoke <a href="https://odi.org/en/insights/what-would-an-inclusive-and-fair-cop26-have-looked-like/">74% of the time</a>, indigenous communities faced <a href="https://odi.org/en/insights/what-would-an-inclusive-and-fair-cop26-have-looked-like/">language barriers and racism</a> and those <a href="https://www.devex.com/news/just-how-inclusive-is-cop-26-102049">who could not obtain visas</a> were excluded entirely. </p>
<p>Despite being advertised as “Africa’s COP”, COP27 further hampered inclusion. The run up was dogged by accusations of inflated hotel prices and concerns over <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-which-countries-have-sent-the-most-delegates-to-cop27/?utm_content=buffer32097&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer">surveillance</a>, and warnings about Egypt’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/18/greenwashing-police-state-egypt-cop27-masquerade-naomi-klein-climate-crisis">brutal police state</a>. The right to protest was limited, with campaigners complaining of <a href="https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/11/10/fossil-fuel-lobbyists-outnumber-almost-every-national-delegation-at-cop27-data-shows#:%7E:text=The%2520fossil%2520fuel%2520tally%2520dwarves,a%2520global%2520climate%2520risk%2520index.">intimidation and censorship</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496513/original/file-20221121-14-up6g48.JPEG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Conference area with 'AfricaCOP27' sign" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496513/original/file-20221121-14-up6g48.JPEG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496513/original/file-20221121-14-up6g48.JPEG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496513/original/file-20221121-14-up6g48.JPEG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496513/original/file-20221121-14-up6g48.JPEG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496513/original/file-20221121-14-up6g48.JPEG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496513/original/file-20221121-14-up6g48.JPEG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496513/original/file-20221121-14-up6g48.JPEG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Africa’s COP?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alix Dietzel</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Arriving in Sharm El Sheik, there was an air of intimidation starting at the airport, where military personnel scrutinised passports. Police roadblocks featured heavily on our way to the hotel and military officials surrounded the COP venue the next morning. </p>
<p>Inside the venue, there were rumours we were <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/un-investigates-allegations-of-egypt-surveillance-at-cop27/a-63756174">being watched</a> and observers were urged <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/cop-27-climate-change-app-cybersecurity-weapon-risks/">not to download the official app</a>. More minor issues included voices literally not being heard due to unreliable microphones and the constant drone of aeroplanes overhead, and a scarcity of food with queues sometimes taking an hour or more. Sponsored by Coca Cola, it was also difficult to access water to refill our bottles. We were sold soft drinks instead. </p>
<p>Outside of the venue, unless I was with a male colleague, I faced near constant sexual harassment, hampering my ability to come and go from the summit. All these issues, major and minor, affect who is able to contribute at COP.</p>
<h2>Fossil fuel interests dominated</h2>
<p>In terms of numbers, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) registered the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-which-countries-have-sent-the-most-delegates-to-cop27/?utm_content=buffer32097&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer">largest party delegation</a> with more than 1,000 people. The oil and gas-rich nation of just 9 million people had a delegation almost twice the size of the next biggest, Brazil. More troublingly, the oil and gas lobby representatives were registered in the national delegations of 29 different countries and were larger than any single national delegation (outside of the UAE). According to one NGO, at least 636 of those attending COP27 were <a href="https://kickbigpollutersout.org/big-polluters-at-cop27">lobbyists for the fossil-fuel industry</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496503/original/file-20221121-14-ox29i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Large oil tanker goes past city skyline" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496503/original/file-20221121-14-ox29i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496503/original/file-20221121-14-ox29i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496503/original/file-20221121-14-ox29i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496503/original/file-20221121-14-ox29i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496503/original/file-20221121-14-ox29i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496503/original/file-20221121-14-ox29i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496503/original/file-20221121-14-ox29i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The UAE has some of the world’s largest reserves of both oil and gas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nick Fox / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Despite the promise that COP27 would foreground African interests, the fossil lobby <a href="https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/11/10/fossil-fuel-lobbyists-outnumber-almost-every-national-delegation-at-cop27-data-shows#:%7E:text=The%2520fossil%2520fuel%2520tally%2520dwarves,a%2520global%2520climate%2520risk%2520index.">outnumbers any delegation from Africa</a>. These numbers give a sense of who has power and say at these negotiations, and who does not.</p>
<h2>Protecting the petrostates</h2>
<p>The main outcomes of COP27 are a good illustration of the power dynamics at play. There is some good news on loss and damage, which was added to the agenda <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2022/11/07/cop27-thorny-issue-of-loss-and-damage-added-to-official-agenda-for-first-time_6003275_114.html">at the last moment</a>. Nearly 200 countries agreed that a fund for loss and damage, which would pay out to rescue and rebuild the physical and social infrastructure of countries ravaged by extreme weather events, should be set up within the next year. However, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/20/world-still-on-brink-of-climate-catastrophe-after-cop27-deal">there is no agreement</a> yet on how much money should be paid in, by whom, and on what basis.</p>
<p>Much more worryingly, there had been a push to phase out all fossil fuels by countries including some of the biggest producers: the EU, Australia, India, Canada, the US and Norway. However, with China, Russia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Iran pushing back, several commitments made at COP26 in Glasgow were dropped, including a target for global emissions to peak by 2025. The outcome was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/20/world-still-on-brink-of-climate-catastrophe-after-cop27-deal">widely judged a failure</a> on efforts to cut emissions: the final agreed text from the summit makes no mention of phasing out fossil fuels and scant reference to the 1.5°C target. </p>
<p>Laurence Tubiana, one of the architects of the Paris Agreement, blamed the host country, Egypt, for allowing its regional alliances to sway the final decision, producing a text that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/20/world-still-on-brink-of-climate-catastrophe-after-cop27-deal">clearly protects oil and gas petrostates</a> and the fossil fuel industries.</p>
<p>The final outcomes demonstrate that, despite the thousands who were there to advocate for climate justice, it was the fossil fuel lobby that had most influence. As a climate justice scholar, I am deeply worried about the processes at COPs, especially given next year’s destination: Dubai. It remains to be seen what happens with the loss and damage fund, but time is running out and watered down commitments on emissions are at this stage deeply unjust and frankly dangerous.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alix Dietzel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An expert in climate justice reports from Sharm El Sheikh.Alix Dietzel, Senior Lecturer in Climate Justice, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.