tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/coronavirus-and-universities-90057/articlescoronavirus and universities – The Conversation2021-01-13T19:12:29Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1531802021-01-13T19:12:29Z2021-01-13T19:12:29Z2021 is the year Australia’s international student crisis really bites<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378460/original/file-20210113-23-6e7v50.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/melbourne-australia-21-december-2016-shoppers-541125583">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>2021 is shaping up as very difficult for universities, as well as the <a href="https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/research-papers/Documents/ValueInternationalEd.pdf">more than 130,000 people</a> whose jobs rely on the international education sector.</p>
<p>In October 2019 almost <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/tourism-and-transport/overseas-arrivals-and-departures-australia/latest-release#arrivals-international-students">51,000 new and returning international students</a> arrived in Australia. In October 2020, this figure had fallen by 99.7% — to just 130. </p>
<p>The Mitchell Institute <a href="https://www.vu.edu.au/sites/default/files/issues-brief-international-students-covid.pdf">has previously estimated</a> about 36% of annual international student spending is on property and another 36% is on hospitality and retail. The large drop in international students inside Australia means the many businesses and property owners that rely on international students will continue to suffer.</p>
<p>Australian states had plans to trial the return of some students with quarantine arrangements in place. These <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/language/english/when-can-international-students-return-to-australia-here-s-a-state-wise-update">included returning</a> 300 international students to South Australia, 350 to the ACT, and setting aside up to 1,000 quarantine places per week in NSW for international students and temporary migrants. Other states hadn’t specified their plans.</p>
<p>But the NSW effort to bring back international students <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/hard-to-see-a-safe-corridor-nsw-shelves-plan-for-return-of-international-students-20210107-p56scz.html">has stalled</a>, while the ACT is still waiting for approval from the Commonwealth and South Australia’s plan has not been finalised. Only the <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/language/english/when-can-international-students-return-to-australia-here-s-a-state-wise-update">Northern Territory has succeeded</a> in bringing back 63 international students since the borders closed to temporary visa holders in March last year.</p>
<p>But even if all the states had progressed with their plans, there would be nowhere near the amount of international students needed to stem the economic shortfall.</p>
<h2>Fewer students coming in than going out</h2>
<p>The impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the international education sector differs to other parts of our economy. Employment in industries such as retail and hospitality <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release">have recovered slightly</a> from the initial COVID-19 shock.</p>
<p>But the international education sector continues to decline and is yet to reach its lowest point.</p>
<p>While the situation is bleak, there are encouraging signs for renewal.</p>
<p>The concepts of stock (the number of current students) and flow (the number of new students) help understand the nature of the problems facing the international education sector.</p>
<p>Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, the stock of enrolled international students has become smaller as they finish their courses. </p>
<p>In October 2019, <a href="https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/research-snapshots/Documents/RS_2021ReturningStudents.pdf">580,202 international students</a> were enrolled in Australian courses. By October 2020, this had reduced by 13% to 502,206.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/interactive-international-students-make-up-more-than-30-of-population-in-some-australian-suburbs-140626">Interactive: international students make up more than 30% of population in some Australian suburbs</a>
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<p>The stock has shrunk because the pandemic has interrupted the flow of new international students. This means there are fewer new students replacing those finishing their courses.</p>
<p>There is still some flow of new students into courses. For instance, between July and October 2020 <a href="https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/research-snapshots/Documents/RS_CommencementsOctober2020.pdf">about 25,000 new international students started a course</a> in Australia. But this is much lower than the 100,000 during the same period in 2019.</p>
<p>And from now on, the stock of enrolled international students is likely to continue to fall much more quickly than the flow of new students. </p>
<p>According to <a href="https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/research-snapshots/Documents/RS_2021ReturningStudents.pdf">Australian government data</a>, about 120,000 international students, or 24% of the enrolled cohort, were due to finish their course between October 2020 and January 2021. With borders remaining closed there is unlikely to be enough students to replace them.</p>
<h2>Students outside Australia aren’t spending in the economy</h2>
<p>Compounding the problem is that many international student visa holders are outside Australia. In the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/international-trade/international-trade-supplementary-information-calendar-year/latest-release">2019 calendar year</a>, international education contributed more than $40 billion to the Australian economy. At the end of December 2020, 158,014 out of 543,522 visa holders were not in the country. This means they will not be spending in the wider Australian economy.</p>
<p>The graph below uses Australian government data to show the location of international student visa holders inside and outside Australia since the start of the pandemic. The number of international student visa holders inside Australia has steadily declined.</p>
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<p>The number of international student visa holders inside Australia at the end of 2020 (around 385,000) had dropped by almost 195,000 <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/research-and-stats/files/student-temporary-grad-program-report-june-2020.pdf">compared to October 2019</a>.</p>
<p>The trials to bring back international students were mostly addressing the issue of existing students (the stock) stranded overseas. Even if they were successful, they would not have had a substantial impact on restarting the flow of new international students into Australia.</p>
<h2>What’s the economic impact?</h2>
<p>Universities have been affected greatly by the crisis. In 2019, universities <a href="https://www.dese.gov.au/higher-education-publications/resources/2019-higher-education-providers-finance-tables">reported A$9.8 billion in revenue</a> from international students. Throughout 2020, <a href="https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/melbourne-losses-not-bad-predicted">losses may have been somewhat contained</a> as international students were still finishing their courses.</p>
<p>However, the continued reduction in the stock of international students means 2021 should be the year the financial impact of the crisis will bite. </p>
<p>More than 40% of the sector’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-universities-could-lose-19-billion-in-the-next-3-years-our-economy-will-suffer-with-them-136251">annual student revenue</a> now comes from international students.</p>
<p>Based on a reduction of 30% in higher education international students who have either <a href="https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/research-snapshots/Documents/RS_2021ReturningStudents.pdf">finished or scheduled to finish</a> their courses before 2021, the university sector can expect at least a A$3 billion reduction in international student revenue this year compared to 2019. </p>
<p>Modelling by Universities Australia shows by 2023, <a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-what-australian-universities-can-do-to-recover-from-the-loss-of-international-student-fees-139759">universities stand to lose A$16 billion</a> due to the loss of international students. Previous <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-universities-could-lose-19-billion-in-the-next-3-years-our-economy-will-suffer-with-them-136251">modelling by the Mitchell Institute</a> shows universities stand to lose up to A$19 billion by 2023.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-universities-could-lose-19-billion-in-the-next-3-years-our-economy-will-suffer-with-them-136251">Australian universities could lose $19 billion in the next 3 years. Our economy will suffer with them</a>
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<p>It is not just a university problem. The graph below shows the enormous growth in the international education sector. It uses data from the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/international-trade/international-trade-supplementary-information-calendar-year/latest-release">Australian Bureau of Statistics</a> (ABS) and breaks down the economic contribution into two groups, tuition fees, and goods and services.</p>
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<p>In 2019, the ABS estimates 57% of the A$40 billion that international education contributed to the Australian economy, or A$22.8 billion, came in the form of goods and services spent in the wider economy. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.vu.edu.au/mitchell-institute/tertiary-education/australia-to-lose-half-its-international-students-by-mid-2021">Research from the Mitchell Institute</a> has previously estimated if borders remained closed by mid-2021 there would be a 50% reduction in the number of international student visa holders inside Australia. This would roughly equate to an annual reduction of about A$11.4 billion in spending in the broader economy.</p>
<h2>Green shoots of renewal</h2>
<p>Despite the extraordinary challenges, there are positive signs. Visa application data shows people are still applying for international student visas.</p>
<p>The graph below compares monthly student visa approvals between January 2018 and November 2020. It excludes those whose last visa was a student visa, to better capture new applicants instead of current students extending or changing their visa.</p>
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<p>This graph shows there has been a sharp drop in approvals since April 2020. In April, there was a 78% drop from the number of approvals the year before and an 83% drop in May. However, there has been some stabilisation. In November 2020, visa approvals were around 38% what they were the year before — a drop of 62%. </p>
<p>The fact there are still a significant number of applications and approvals in the current environment is a testament to how Australia remains an attractive prospect for many international students.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-what-australian-universities-can-do-to-recover-from-the-loss-of-international-student-fees-139759">COVID-19: what Australian universities can do to recover from the loss of international student fees</a>
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<p>It suggests that if the international education sector can weather the storm of 2021, better times await in 2022 and beyond.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153180/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Hurley works for Victoria University. </span></em></p>Universities can expect at least a A$3 billion reduction in international student revenue this year compared to 2019.Peter Hurley, Policy Fellow, Mitchell Institute, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1428242020-07-16T10:11:05Z2020-07-16T10:11:05ZUniversities are cutting hundreds of jobs – they, and the government, can do better<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347867/original/file-20200716-19-bf5on5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/melbourne-australia-august-2-2015-hargraveandrew-302819324">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Monash University will <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/monash-university-to-slash-nearly-300-jobs-as-higher-education-sector-battles/news-story/45b3b0fe1868a52c6132a06b35016a45">reportedly cut 277 jobs</a> by the end of the year, due to projecting a more than A$300 million financial shortfall caused by COVID-19. It comes after the vice chancellor of another Group of Eight university, UNSW, Ian Jacobs, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/15/university-of-new-south-wales-to-cut-493-jobs-and-merge-faculties">announced on Wednesday</a> the university would cut 493 jobs. </p>
<p>These announcements are the latest in a long line of cuts to university workers’ pay, conditions and job losses across the country in recent months. In May, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/universities-urged-to-bring-back-international-students-as-researchers-face-huge-job-losses-20200520-p54usd.html">Universities Australia projected 21,000 job</a> losses in the next six months, with more to go after that. The <a href="https://www.universitiesaustralia.edu.au/media-item/covid-19-to-cost-universities-16-billion-by-2023/">group’s modelling</a> shows Australia’s universities could lose $16 billion in revenue between now and 2023, largely due to the loss of international student enrolments.</p>
<p>University staff have borne the brunt of this funding crisis. The government has not increased funding for the higher education sector, and excluded public universities from the JobKeeper scheme.</p>
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<p>University after university has sacked casual staff – which <a href="https://theconversation.com/casual-academics-arent-going-anywhere-so-what-can-universities-do-to-ensure-learning-isnt-affected-113567">make up up to 70% of teaching staff</a> at some universities — and declined to extend the contracts of fixed-term staff. While the cuts at UNSW include full time staff, in April, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/this-is-not-a-one-off-hit-sydney-universities-cut-courses-and-casual-staff-20200423-p54mmy.html">around one-third of casuals</a> at the university had reported having lost work.</p>
<p>La Trobe and RMIT university had <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/very-big-hit-indeed-rmit-and-la-trobe-cut-hundreds-of-casual-staff-20200417-p54kvl.html">let go of hundreds of casual “non-essential” staff</a> in the same month.</p>
<p>Casual jobs lost run into the thousands nationwide, but the full extent of losses is unknown. Casual staff are flexible labour, so reliable statistics are not kept. An idea of the scale can be garnered by La Trobe vice chancellor John Dewar’s statement <a href="https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/university-staff-pressuring-government-in-a-fight-for-their-jobs,13895">A$7 million had been saved at his institution</a> by cutting casual jobs.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-the-australian-government-letting-universities-suffer-138514">Why is the Australian government letting universities suffer?</a>
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<h2>What about the union deal?</h2>
<p>The context for industrial relations in universities is the National Tertiary Education Union’s (NTEU) <a href="https://www.nteu.org.au/covid-19/jobs_protection_framework">National Jobs Protection Framework</a> — an agreement negotiated between the NTEU national leadership and a representative group of four university vice chancellors in March this year.</p>
<p>The premise of the deal was ask some staff to take wage cuts and pay freezes in return for saving some jobs. </p>
<p>Category A universities could implement cuts of up to 10%. Category B universities – those most affected by revenue reduction – could cut some staff’s pay by up to 15%. Category C comprises the small number of universities hardly affected financially by COVID-19, who would not make changes. Clauses requiring consultation before major restructures in existing enterprise agreements would be severely weakened. Union officials estimated 90% of universities would fall into Category A or B.</p>
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<p>This controversial plan sparked a civil war in the union, and was withdrawn on May 26, having been released less than two weeks earlier. </p>
<p>Staff meetings, including branch committees and members’ meetings, in around 15 universities voted against the concessions in the framework. In the end only four (Charles Sturt, Monash, UWA and La Trobe universities) — out of Australia’s 39 vice chancellors signed up to it.</p>
<p><a href="https://nteufightback.site/">Critics of this strategy</a> argued offering reductions to hard-won pay and conditions showed weakness from the union and would only lead to further attacks on conditions by the universities. They said the wage cuts were unnecessary, and pointed to the vague nature of the job protections. Instead they advocated a political and industrial campaign by the union to defend members’ pay and conditions and demand the government fully fund the industry. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-than-70-of-academics-at-some-universities-are-casuals-theyre-losing-work-and-are-cut-out-of-jobkeeper-137778">More than 70% of academics at some universities are casuals. They're losing work and are cut out of JobKeeper</a>
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<p>Since then, agreements based on, or similar to the union’s framework, have gone through on a number of campuses, supported by the NTEU leadership. </p>
<p>La Trobe University’s amended enterprise agreement allows for pay reductions of up 10%.* This is $135 per fortnight for those on the median full-time wage of $65,000. Shortly after the all-staff vote and despite 239 voluntary redundancies, La Trobe announced it was looking at 215-415 forced redundancies later in the year.</p>
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<p>This indicates there is no guarantee that voting to support cuts to wages and conditions will prevent job losses. </p>
<h2>Staff don’t have to pay for crisis</h2>
<p>At the University of Western Australia, a combination of compulsory taking of unpaid leave and pay cuts means staff will have almost 10% less in their pockets. Monash University, the Western Sydney University and the University of Tasmania have also seen union-management schemes which reduce staff pay. And, as we have seen, Monash will be slashing jobs anyway. Although vice chancellor Margaret Gardner says they have managed to save 190 of them.</p>
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<p>Hundreds of job losses have also been announced at <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-29/jobs-axed-from-cq-university-during-coronavirus-pandemic/12297822">Central Queensland University</a>, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-17/southern-cross-university-vice-chancellor/12364410">Southern Cross University</a> and <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/deakin-uni-to-shed-300-jobs-as-tertiary-sector-s-covid-19-woes-grow-20200525-p54w5a.html#:%7E:text=Deakin%20University%20will%20cut%20400,million%20in%20revenue%20next%20year.">Deakin University</a>. The picture is bleak. But it is by rejecting the notion only staff pay and conditions are the flexible factors in the equation —and being prepared to campaign against university administrations and governments on this basis — that the sector can be improved for staff, students and the public. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-is-making-job-ready-degrees-cheaper-for-students-but-cutting-funding-to-the-same-courses-141280">The government is making ‘job-ready’ degrees cheaper for students – but cutting funding to the same courses</a>
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<p>Universities have financial resources — property, bequests and philanthropic funds and access to lines of credit — they can access rather than forcing staff to sacrifice pay and conditions, or lose their jobs. The notion of public education as a public good must be re-asserted, especially in the face of the government’s unfavourable stance towards universities. </p>
<p>By staff rejecting concessions on pay and conditions, fighting for every job, and organising towards industrial action in next year’s bargaining round, they can start to put pressure on universities to treat them better, and the government to increase funding.</p>
<p><em>*Editor’s note: This figure has been amended since publication to show the correct number of 10%.</em></p>
<p><em>Kaye Broadbent was a casual academic at Central Queensland University until she lost her job in a recent round of cuts. She co-authored this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142824/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kaye Broadbent co-authored this article. Both her and Alexis Vassiley are members of the NTEU. Alexis is a member of the Socialist Alternative.</span></em></p>Universities have financial resources — property, bequests and philanthropic funds, and access to lines of credit — they can access rather than forcing staff to sacrifice their jobs.Alexis Vassiley, PhD candidate, School of Management, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1397592020-06-02T20:04:36Z2020-06-02T20:04:36ZCOVID-19: what Australian universities can do to recover from the loss of international student fees<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338778/original/file-20200601-83282-omm3g3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/melbourne-australia-december-17-2014-rmit-354768644">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Most of Australia’s universities have adequate cash and investment reserves to deal with the immediate impact of a downturn in international student revenue in 2020. But the longer term prospects are grim. </p>
<p>We <a href="https://melbourne-cshe.unimelb.edu.au/lh-martin-institute/insights/modelling-individual-australian-universities-resilience-in-managing-overseas-student-revenue-losses-from-the-covid-19-pandemic">modelled the impact</a> of the loss of international student fee income resulting from COVID-19. We used 2018 data and categorised 38 Australian universities into three risk categories: high, medium and low.</p>
<p>We found seven universities are most at risk of having their international student revenue losses exceed available cash and investment reserves. These are: Monash University, RMIT, University of Technology Sydney, La Trobe, Central Queensland and Southern Cross University, and The University of Canberra.</p>
<p>The decade from 2009 to 2018 saw Australian universities enjoy an unprecedented boom in international student enrolments. The revenue from this activity increased by 260% – from A$3.4 billion to A$8.8 billion. </p>
<p>This has created significant threats to universities, which became increasingly reliant on international student fee income to fund teaching, research and capital infrastructure programs.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-universities-came-to-rely-on-international-students-138796">How universities came to rely on international students</a>
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<p>Just four months ago this strategic threat was realised. The most pervasive impact of COVID-19 on Australian university finances will be the loss of international student fee revenue. </p>
<p>Modelling by <a href="https://www.universitiesaustralia.edu.au/media/">Universities Australia</a> shows the sector will lose A$16 billion by 2023. This is similar to our predicted losses of international student fee revenue amounting to A$18 billion by 2024. </p>
<p>A critical issue is how well universities are placed to manage this pandemic-induced financial crisis.</p>
<h2>Short and long term scenarios</h2>
<p>Our study examined the short (for 2020) and longer term (to 2024) impacts of the loss of international student fee revenue. </p>
<p>We assessed the risks using short term and longer term optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.</p>
<p>The optimistic scenario considered overall international student numbers will return to pre-COVID-19 levels by 2024. The pessimistic expected longer term damage to international education.</p>
<p>We used cash and investment reserves to assess universities’ financial resilience. These reserves are the most accessible forms of liquidity available to offset a sudden loss in income.</p>
<p>We determined only a proportion of total cash and investments to be able to offset revenue shortfalls. The proportion increases over the longer term. Universities do have other assets, but most are not readily accessible for alternative deployment.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-the-australian-government-letting-universities-suffer-138514">Why is the Australian government letting universities suffer?</a>
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<p>Seven universities (as cited above) have insufficient available cash and investment reserves to offset predicted losses in international fee revenue for 2020. This is also the case for both the pessimistic and optimistic longer term scenarios. </p>
<p>Of these, Monash University, RMIT and UTS have very large numbers of international enrolments. Revenue from international student fees constitutes 34% for Monash, 36% for RMIT and 35% for UTS. Across the sector international student fee income constituted 26.2% of total revenue in 2018. </p>
<p>For Central Queensland and Southern Cross University, international fee income as a proportion of total revenue is above the sector average – 33% and 27% respectively in 2018.</p>
<p>In absolute terms two of seven universities at most risk – Southern Cross and Canberra – have very low levels of available cash and investment reserves. This that adds to their financial vulnerability.</p>
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<p>In the longer term another 13 universities – including the research-intensive UNSW and The University of Queensland, as well as The University of Adelaide, South Australia and Flinders University – face medium financial management risk in having insufficient available reserves to deal with the predicted outcomes for the pessimistic scenario.</p>
<p>The remaining 18 universities, just under half of the total sector institutions, are in the low risk category, but most still face significant financial challenges. All five Western Australian universities are in this category. </p>
<p>Of the large research intensive universities, The University of Melbourne is the only university with sufficient reserves to offset the predicted revenue loss under both short and longer term scenarios.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-than-10-000-job-losses-billions-in-lost-revenue-coronavirus-will-hit-australias-research-capacity-harder-than-the-gfc-138210">More than 10,000 job losses, billions in lost revenue: coronavirus will hit Australia's research capacity harder than the GFC</a>
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<p>Given their relative smaller cohorts of international students, the majority of regional universities are predicted to be less exposed financially.</p>
<h2>What universities need to do</h2>
<p>Few universities have sufficient operating margins or available cash and investment reserves to withstand a sustained reduction in international fee revenue. </p>
<p>Without significant increases in public funding (which is unlikely), each university will, to varying degrees, need to identify and build additional revenue streams, and/or significantly reduce spending.</p>
<p>Universities are actively planning and implementing various strategies to mitigate potential losses. The most important strategies will include:</p>
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<li><p>delay or scaling back of uncommitted capital works and other major projects</p></li>
<li><p>a re-appraisal of infrastructure requirements for a post-COVID-19 environment may realise assets surplus to future needs</p></li>
<li><p>universities with multiple campuses should conduct a major review of the viability of each in a post-COVID-19 world</p></li>
<li><p>a rationalisation of course and subject offerings to ensure individual program viability over the longer term</p></li>
<li><p>a rigorous review of “other expenditure” costs. Possible areas for savings include travel, entertainment, use of consultants and marketing expenses</p></li>
<li><p>a reappraisal of head office structures and remuneration levels, with a view to consolidate roles which may have emerged in a period of plenty</p></li>
<li><p>a further review of administrative and professional staff costs which amounted to A$8.6 billion in 2018. Sector-wide benchmarking is already available to assess relative efficiency on a function by function basis</p></li>
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<p>Given employee costs represent 57% of total university spending, further reductions in this area are inevitable to reflect the decline in student enrolments. Each university may also need to adjust its workforce capability to meet changed future requirements. </p>
<p>One unprecedented measure involves university leaders seeking collaboration with unions to modify existing enterprise agreements to allow for a temporary salary freeze. Job losses will nevertheless occur, with casual and fixed term staff most at risk.</p>
<p>At the same time, universities will need to continue investing in digital education and new forms of student experience capable of attracting and retaining both domestic and international market share in a post-COVID-19 era.</p>
<p>COVID-19 will test the resilience of all Australian universities in a manner rarely – if ever – seen before. Not all 38 universities will emerge from the pandemic in their current form.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139759/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Marshman is affiliated with the University of Melbourne where he is an Honorary Fellow within the Melbourne Centre for the Study of Higher Education. He is also engaged as an executive coach for a University of Melbourne staff member.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Larkins does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Researchers modelled the impact of the loss of international student fee income on 38 universities.Ian Marshman, Honorary Principal Fellow, Melbourne Centre for the Study of Higher Education, The University of MelbourneFrank Larkins, Professor Emeritus and Former Deputy Vice Chancellor, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1385142020-05-19T01:46:14Z2020-05-19T01:46:14ZWhy is the Australian government letting universities suffer?<p>On March 30, the federal government announced <a href="https://theconversation.edu.au/article-135049">JobKeeper</a> – a A$130 billion wage subsidy for employees to limit the economic devastation of COVID-19. Employers are eligible for the A$1,500 a fortnight payment to staff if the business’ revenue had fallen over a specified period by 30% or 50%, depending on their size.</p>
<p>This excluded most universities. But the government soon announced the threshold for JobKeeper would be lowered to 15% for charities, giving hope to universities, which are not-for-profit organisations. That is, <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-04/Fact_sheet_supporting_businesses_0.pdf">until the government clarified</a> “this lower turnover decline test does not apply to universities”.</p>
<p>And while some universities were still eligible by their calculations, the government made <a href="https://www.iru.edu.au/news/new-jobkeeper-changes-the-final-twist-of-the-knife-for-universities/">two other changes to JobKeeper</a> that seemed targeted at ensuring university staff couldn’t get any help from the government. This is despite <a href="https://www.universitiesaustralia.edu.au/media-item/uni-viability-crucial-to-national-recovery/">Universities Australia’s estimate</a> around 21,000 jobs will be lost.</p>
<p>While the government has provided some help to universities in the form of its <a href="https://ministers.dese.gov.au/tehan/higher-education-relief-package">higher education relief package</a> – which guarantees funding for domestic students already budgeted for – it won’t fill <a href="https://theconversation.edu.au/article-136244">the gap in revenue</a> lost due to international students.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/for-most-universities-theres-little-point-to-the-governments-covid-19-assistance-package-136244">For most universities, there's little point to the government's COVID-19 assistance package</a>
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<p>This will likely result in mass staff lay-offs and may risk some universities’ <a href="https://theconversation.edu.au/article-132869">financial viability</a>. It will also severely curtail Australia’s <a href="https://theconversation.edu.au/article-138210">research capacity</a>.</p>
<p>So, why has the Australian government taken successive steps specifically to <a href="https://www.universitiesaustralia.edu.au/media-item/uni-viability-crucial-to-national-recovery/">exclude universities</a> from its business continuity funding?</p>
<h2>Research and the culture wars</h2>
<p>Australian conservative politicians have a long history of attacking researchers.</p>
<p>We saw this in the Coalition’s “waste watch” committee, to keep track of allegedly unnecessary spending, established by <a href="https://biography.senate.gov.au/baume-michael-ehrenfried/">John Howard when he was opposition leader in 1986</a>. One of the committee’s prominent targets was a project to research working mothers’ <a href="http://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2006/may/1294984634/gideon-haigh/nelson-touch">child rearing in Ancient Rome</a>. </p>
<p>The Coalition’s antagonism towards research was evident in their <a href="https://theconversation.edu.au/article-105737">secret rejections</a> in 2005, 2017 and 2018 of more than 11 grants recommended by the Australian Research Council for research in history, music, and art history. Education minister in 2018, Simon Birmingham, mocked one of the grants on Twitter.</p>
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<p>The Coalition’s attitude is also on display in attacks by some MPs on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2015/jul/08/liberals-attack-on-climate-science-is-groundless-ignorant-and-embarrassing-say-scientists">climate change</a> research, presumably because it challenges the primacy of narrow economic interests.</p>
<p>But conservatives have long supported universities as institutions. Many senior Liberal politicians have <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6757160/why-has-the-government-waged-war-on-our-universities/?cs=14246">multiple university degrees</a>: Scott Morrison has an honours degree in science from UNSW; Josh Frydenberg has four degrees – one from Oxford and one from Harvard; Mathias Cormann has two; Dan Tehan, three; Marise Payne, two; Simon Birmingham, at least one; Christian Porter, four; and Greg Hunt at least three.</p>
<p>So in many ways, universities support conservatives’ personal, material and political self interests. And yet the Coalition is undermining them by, in part, rejecting a motion moved by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/12/labor-and-the-greens-push-to-extend-eligibility-for-jobkeeper-scheme">Labor and the Greens</a> to extend JobKeeper to universities.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-than-70-of-academics-at-some-universities-are-casuals-theyre-losing-work-and-are-cut-out-of-jobkeeper-137778">More than 70% of academics at some universities are casuals. They're losing work and are cut out of JobKeeper</a>
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<p>Conservatives also appear to oppose universities on <a href="https://theconversation.edu.au/article-109080">ideological grounds</a>. Examples include former Prime Minister Tony Abott’s criticisms of ANU for <a href="https://theconversation.edu.au/article-33079">divesting from fossil fuel</a> industries; education minister Dan Tehan’s review into universities allegedly suppressing the right kind of <a href="https://theconversation.edu.au/article-108170">free speech</a>; some conservative politician’s dislike of universities declining to host a <a href="https://senatorpaterson.com.au/2018/06/18/fine-unis-for-caving-on-free-speech-senator-paterson/">Ramsay Centre</a> celebrating Western civilisation, and failing to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_wars">sufficiently celebrate</a> Anglo-Australians’ historical legacy. </p>
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<p>This is part of what is commonly called a “<a href="https://insidestory.org.au/our-thirty-year-culture-wars/">cultural war</a>” against organisations such as the CSIRO, the <a href="https://theconversation.edu.au/article-32692">Bureau of Meteorology</a>, the <a href="https://theconversation.edu.au/article-98455">ABC</a>, the <a href="https://theconversation.edu.au/article-114434">creative arts</a>, <a href="https://digital.library.adelaide.edu.au/dspace/handle/2440/28328">museums</a> and other cultural institutions that don’t support conservative ideology. </p>
<h2>From elite to universal systems</h2>
<p>There is also a structural explanation for conservative governments’ antipathy to contemporary universities. This is related to universities’ transition from elite to mass to universal systems of education.</p>
<p>These transitions were described by the distinguished US higher education scholar <a href="https://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2007/03/02_trow.shtml">Martin Trow</a>.
In his important <a href="https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED091983">1973 paper</a>, Trow explained that elite, mass, and universal systems of higher education have different approaches to admission, curriculum, pedagogy, assessment and quality assurance. They also have different <a href="https://theconversation.edu.au/article-137877">social roles</a>.</p>
<p>He explained that participation is a privilege in <em>elite systems</em>, where fewer than 15% of the relevant age group enrol in higher education. Participation is an advantage in <em>mass systems</em> of higher education, where up to half of the relevant age group enrol in higher education. But not participating becomes a disadvantage in <em>universal systems</em>, where more than half participate in higher education. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/universities-have-gone-from-being-a-place-of-privilege-to-a-competitive-market-what-will-they-be-after-coronavirus-137877">Universities have gone from being a place of privilege to a competitive market. What will they be after coronavirus?</a>
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<p>Conservative governments were happy to support elite systems of higher education. In 1959, the Liberal Menzies government greatly increased university funding. It also developed state universities into a national system by establishing the <a href="https://archives.unimelb.edu.au/resources/keys-to-the-past/keys/key-67">Australian Universities Commission</a> which regulated universities’ enrolments and recommended the allocation of federal funds.</p>
<p>Conservative governments also supported higher education’s transition to a mass system from 1967. But they preferred most of this expansion to be in institutions <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_of_Advanced_Education">different from universities</a>. These Colleges of Advanced Education were funded for teaching by Menzies and subsequent governments at a much lower rate than universities, and were not funded to conduct research.</p>
<p>The colleges were incorporated into existing universities or formed their own universities <a href="https://theconversation.edu.au/article-19291">in 1989</a>.</p>
<p>A liberal strand of conservative higher education policymakers in <a href="https://theconversation.edu.au/article-116060">Australia</a> and <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/education/2013/dec/05/university-places-restriction-lifted-student-loan-george-osborne">the UK</a> also supported the transition to universal higher education from the early 2000s. They removed government limits on university enrolments to give freer play to higher education markets and to students’ interests. </p>
<p>This demand-driven system encouraged the expansion of universal or open access systems, as <a href="http://escholarship.org/uc/item/96p3s213">Trow later called them</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/demand-driven-funding-for-universities-is-frozen-what-does-this-mean-and-should-the-policy-be-restored-116060">Demand-driven funding for universities is frozen. What does this mean and should the policy be restored?</a>
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<p>But conservatives, such as former education minister <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/12/coalition-alarmed-after-students-with-atars-as-low-as-179-accepted-into-teaching">Simon Birmingham</a>, complained such policies led universities to lower standards by admitting low quality students.</p>
<p>As Trow also noted in 1973, the demand for higher education has importantly been social as much as economic. But <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/quarter-uni-grads-think-course-useless/9312446">conservatives</a> complain universities offer “useless” degrees, such as in Arts, not sufficiently tied to graduate jobs.</p>
<p>The incumbent conservatives in Australia and the UK prefer to limit higher education to students and programs they deem worthy. They have reimposed enrolment caps in <a href="https://theconversation.edu.au/article-95525">Australia</a> and <a href="https://wonkhe.com/blogs/does-the-cap-fit-and-other-existential-questions/">the UK</a>. </p>
<p>For this strand of now-dominant conservatives, universal higher education should be like any other universal service: targeted, transactional, fee-for-service and preferably privatised. </p>
<p>Excluding universities from JobKeeper is another way of keeping universities in their place.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138514/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gavin Moodie receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p>Are the Australian government’s successive changes to JobKeeper specifically designed to exclude universities? And if so, why?Gavin Moodie, Adjunct professor, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.