tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/csu-43591/articlesCSU – The Conversation2021-09-13T10:14:35Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1676582021-09-13T10:14:35Z2021-09-13T10:14:35ZGerman election: what to expect in the race to replace Angela Merkel<p>Germany is shortly to hold its first ever federal election in which the sitting chancellor is not running. The departure of Angela Merkel means that, for the first time since 1949, <a href="https://theconversation.com/angela-merkel-to-step-aside-heres-what-it-means-for-germany-and-what-to-expect-next-105875">change is inevitable</a>. </p>
<p>For most of the past four years, the most likely outcome of this vote appeared to be a government led by the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), probably in coalition with the Green Party. For a time, the Greens were almost level-pegging with the CDU/CSU, but fell behind during the pandemic when governing parties across Europe <a href="https://ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1475-6765.12401">gained ground</a>.</p>
<p>Few rated the chances of the social democratic SPD – currently Merkel’s reluctant junior coalition partner. The party had its <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1037985/cdu-and-spd-vote-share-by-election/">worst result ever in 2017</a>, plumbed new depths in the <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/german-spd-reels-from-double-defeat-in-eu-and-regional-vote/">2019 European election</a>, and gave an impression of severe internal division. </p>
<p>Its leader, Andrea Nahles, was forced from office after the European election debacle, and Vice-Chancellor and Federal Finance Minister Olaf Scholz lost a ballot among party members for the leadership to two largely unknown, left-wing contenders. He was selected as the SPD’s candidate for chancellor but, at the time, this seemed largely a face-saving move.</p>
<p>Roll the clock forward to September 2021, and the social democrats can barely believe their luck. They are <a href="https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm">polling</a> well ahead of the CDU at around 25% – quite an achievement in a highly fragmented, six-party system. Meanwhile, the CDU/CSU is in crisis, in some <a href="https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/forsa.htm">polls</a> even falling below 20%.</p>
<h2>CDU on the rocks</h2>
<p>The current situation owes as much to the other parties’ faltering campaigns as it does the SPD’s strength. The CDU/CSU selected Armin Laschet to be chancellor candidate ahead of Bavarian Minister President Markus Söder, despite polling evidence that this was a big risk.</p>
<p>Laschet has had a torrid time in the campaign. Most damaging was his reaction to the terrible floods in western Germany, including his home state of North Rhine Westphalia. His crisis management was questionable, but worse was the clip of him laughing and joking with party colleagues while the federal president made a solemn speech <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/merkel-successor-criticized-for-laughing-during-flood-visit/a-58305436">commemorating victims</a>.</p>
<p>Laschet apologised, but the damage was done. His performance in the pandemic had been the subject of criticism, and the whole episode confirmed German voters’ doubts. Add in allegations of plagiarism, a TV interview where he struggled to name three things a CDU-led government would do, and barbed comments from Söder (who demonstratively <a href="https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/cdu-csu-markus-soeder-schaut-aufs-handy-armin-laschet-patzt-in-deutscher-geschichte-a-350717ba-b97b-42c0-a725-0522f8b188a2">played with his phone</a> during Laschet’s speech at the campaign launch), and the CDU seems determined to test how low its support can fall.</p>
<p>The Greens have also found the extra scrutiny associated with the final stages of the campaign a challenge. Candidate <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/german-greens-leader-baerbock-self-critical-in-plagiarism-debate/">Annalena Baerbock</a> has been variously criticised for apparent plagiarism (such a common pattern – can a university offer some courses in footnotes?), failing to declare income and embellishing her CV.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Scholz has edged up in the polls, as the German public considers more deeply what qualities it would like in a chancellor ahead of casting votes. His dry, sober manner of presentation, coupled with centrist politics, is (quite deliberately) reminiscent of Merkel, and has a <a href="https://politik.watson.de/deutschland/exklusiv/925962569-umfrage-olaf-scholz-ist-bei-juengsten-waehlern-der-beliebteste-kanzlerkandidat">strong appeal</a>, especially to older voters. </p>
<h2>Who could end up in government?</h2>
<p>On election night, we will know who has topped the poll. There is no guarantee that the candidate of the largest party will lead the government, but there is a fair degree of expectation on the part of the German public this will happen. However, the next puzzle will be how to build a coalition.</p>
<p>Scholz would love to lead an SPD-Green coalition, but although things are shifting in that direction, the odds are against them having a majority.</p>
<p>The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is out of the picture but one option could be SPD-Green-Left Party – and this has not been ruled out by the SPD or Greens. On domestic policy, such a coalition would be doable, but on foreign policy, there is a gaping chasm in views (with the Left Party pressing to disband NATO and replace it with an alliance involving Russia).</p>
<p>Partnering with the Greens and the Left Party would also leave Scholz rather less room to resist policy demands from the SPD’s left, running counter to his more centrist instincts. The most likely scenario is a “traffic light” coalition of SPD, Greens and the liberal FDP, but the latter will play hard to get, and there are major policy differences between the FDP and its potential partners, especially in the key areas of climate and fiscal policy.</p>
<p>Given all this uncertainty, multiple coalition formulations may well be possible. On election night, we may get some hints. There will then be exploratory talks among potential partners over a few weeks, which will resolve key issues. Will the FDP be open to compromise with the SPD and Greens? Will the Left Party spring a surprise and jettison its foreign policy platform? </p>
<p>Only after these initial talks will we know which combination will embark on formal coalition negotiations. And as we saw in <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/nejo.12310">2017</a>, there is no guarantee of success: talks might fail, or the outcome might be voted down by party members or delegates. </p>
<p>Germany will be in a period of hiatus, with just an acting government, for a period of several weeks if not months. Readers across Europe, and beyond should stay tuned: we are set for an exciting ride.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167658/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ed Turner receives funding from the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) which has supported his work on various party projects. He has undertaken occasional consultancy for the Friedrich Ebert Foundation.</span></em></p>After a rocky start, the social democrats are on the up as polling day approaches.Ed Turner, Reader in Politics, Co-Director, Aston Centre for Europe, Aston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/879902018-01-03T11:18:47Z2018-01-03T11:18:47ZGerman ‘grand coalition’ could strengthen right-wing extremism<p>In today’s highly polarized political atmosphere, Americans may find themselves longing for increased bipartisanship. Wouldn’t greater cooperation from politicians improve our political situation or at least civilize political debate? What’s happening in Germany, however, should make them aware of some of the pitfalls of cooperating across the political aisle. </p>
<p>Germany will have taken a record 100 days to start preliminary talks Jan.
3 about <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics/german-parties-at-odds-ahead-of-coalition-talks-idUSKBN1ER04K">exploratory talks Jan. 7</a> on whether to renew their “grand coalition” between the major parties on the center-left (the Social Democrats or SPD) and the center-right (Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats or CDU/CSU). </p>
<p>While in Germany to observe the national election in September, I saw little enthusiasm for this governing arrangement. The subsequent long hesitation of the main political parties reveals their trepidation. </p>
<p>With 399 of the 709 seats in the Bundestag, a grand coalition may be able to pass any legislation it can agree on, but this is unlikely to help Germany address one of its major problems: the rise of a new right-wing, anti-immigrant party, the Alternative for Germany, or AfD. </p>
<h2>A positive experience in the 1960s</h2>
<p>In the first 50 years of the Federal Republic, West Germany experienced only one grand coalition, which lasted only three years. </p>
<p>Major parties choose to govern together for a variety of reasons. In some cases, there are significant political challenges that can only be addressed when actors across the political spectrum work together. </p>
<p>Germany’s earlier grand coalition – in power from 1966 to 1969 – came into being as a result of the first economic crisis of the postwar years and fears of an <a href="https://50years.intereconomics.eu/an-economic-crisis.html">“economic collapse.”</a></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200263/original/file-20171220-4957-13ds2ks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200263/original/file-20171220-4957-13ds2ks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200263/original/file-20171220-4957-13ds2ks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200263/original/file-20171220-4957-13ds2ks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200263/original/file-20171220-4957-13ds2ks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200263/original/file-20171220-4957-13ds2ks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200263/original/file-20171220-4957-13ds2ks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The architects of the 1960s grand coalition: Willy Brandt, Kurt Georg Kiesinger and Helmut Schmidt.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bundesarchiv_B_145_Bild-F057026-0011,_Bonn,_Pflanzung_von_Kanzler-Ged%C3%A4chtnisb%C3%A4umen.jpg">Engelbert Reineke/German Federal Archives</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The ruling Christian Democrats wanted to respond to this situation by raising taxes. Their coalition partners, the market-oriented Freedom Democratic Party or FDP, refused to agree to this move and resigned. The Christian Democrats then joined with the left-wing SPD <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/grand-coalition-a-controversial-alliance/a-17108175">in a grand coalition and worked together</a> to pass policies that brought Germany out of recession. They also found common ground on other policies such as pension reform and greater support for higher education. </p>
<h2>21st-century difficulties</h2>
<p>Germany’s grand coalitions of the 21st century – and this year’s would be the third after the first between 2005 and 2009 and the second from 2013 to 2017 – have been another matter entirely. </p>
<p>Following the Sept. 24 elections, seven parties sit in the German Bundestag, more than any other year since 1949. </p>
<p>In addition to the CDU/CSU (<a href="http://www.aicgs.org/2017/09/the-csu/">the sister Christian Democratic parties </a>count separately and must both agree to any potential governing coalition), the German parliament now includes the Social Democrats, the Freedom Democrats, the Greens, the Left Party (the party that emerged from the remains of the East German Communist Party) and the nationalist AfD. </p>
<p>The Left Party and the AfD are relatively young, both having been created in the 21st century, and are considered to be beyond the pale for coalition formation at the national level because of their extremism. </p>
<p>The problem is that the fragmentation of the party system means that neither of the “standard” coalition arrangements of right-leaning CDU/CSU-FDP or left-leaning SPD-Green has enough seats to form a government. The two major parties, therefore, have been forced into partnership not because of a shared bipartisan vision, but because of a lack of other alternatives.</p>
<p>Initially, however, after the September elections, the SPD declined to join a potential government. This was because many Social Democratic leaders believe that <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379411000709">the main reason</a> for their party having their worst election result since 1949 is that they were the junior partner in a grand coalition for the past four years. How can they claim, the argument goes, that they represent an alternative to the CDU/CSU when they have always voted to support the government? The party, in other words, needs time to re-establish itself as having a vision distinct from that of the Christian Democrats.</p>
<p>What then ensued was a rather unusual proposal for what was dubbed the <a href="https://qz.com/1104508/everything-you-need-to-know-about-germanys-three-way-jamaica-coalition-talks">“Jamaica coalition,”</a> because of its color scheme of black (for the CDU/CSU), yellow (for the FDP) and green (for the Greens). But these negotiations broke down when the parties failed to reach a compromise on the <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/refugee-family-reunification-in-germany-what-you-need-to-know/a-40449409">very controversial issue of family reunification of refugees</a>. At that point, Germany’s federal president <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics/german-social-democrats-face-pressure-over-coalition-talks-idUSKBN1DM10H">publicly pressured</a> the SPD to reconsider. </p>
<h2>What to do about the extremist AfD?</h2>
<p>The Christian Democrats and Social Democrats are far apart on many issues. </p>
<p>The SPD would like to do away with private health insurance; the CDU adamantly disagrees. The SPD wants to allow federal investment in schools, but that policy is opposed by the CDU since it would require lifting a ban on national interference in education, <a href="http://www.perfar.eu/policy/education/germany">a policy area</a> reserved for the states. </p>
<p>The parties <a href="http://www.sueddeutsche.de/news/politik/parteien-was-die-buerger-von-einer-grossen-koalition-erwarten-koennen-dpa.urn-newsml-dpa-com-20090101-171220-99-359970">do have common ground on some issues</a> such as tax cuts for the lower- and middle-income brackets. Both also want to do away with the “Solidarzuschlag” – a special tax to support former East Germany – though they have different ideas about how to do so. And they might even find <a href="http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2017-12/regierungsbildung-union-familiennachzug-kompromiss">a compromise</a> on the tricky issue of family reunification for refugees by agreeing initially to admit only those family members in most danger. </p>
<p>What Christian Democrats and Social Democrats definitely share, however, is the goal of limiting the power of the nationalist AfD. </p>
<p>Indeed, the SPD’s initial reluctance to join the governing coalition was also driven by their desire to make sure that the AfD – now the third largest party in parliament – not be able to claim the mantle of parliamentary opposition. </p>
<p>The German Bundestag does not have an official leader of the opposition, but <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/what-is-the-role-of-germanys-parliamentary-opposition/a-40615464">the largest opposition party does have the right</a> to chair the budget committee and to respond first to any government statements, thus ensuring it greater publicity and prestige. This role may help establish the AfD as a legitimate parliamentary actor. </p>
<h2>No other options</h2>
<p>The lack of other governing options shows how desperate the situation is. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/">Opinion polls</a> show that calling new elections would either return the same results as on Sept. 24 or might even put the AfD in a stronger position. </p>
<p>On the other hand, a minority right-leaning government with just the CDU-CSU in power would be <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/25/germany-return-weimar-angela-merkel-bundestag-coalition">worryingly reminiscent</a> of the unstable Weimar Republic of the 1930s that led to Hitler and the Nazis taking power. It would also probably have to rely on the AfD for support in passing legislation, thereby further legitimizing the party. </p>
<p>The bottom line is that the German parties are stuck in a bind because there is no guarantee that a grand coalition will constrain the power of the AfD. </p>
<p>With both major parties in the government, both will be targets of voter frustration. In particular, almost any policies the government passes to integrate <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e1c069e0-872f-11e7-bf50-e1c239b45787">hundreds of thousands of refugees</a> are likely to lead to some voter pushback. </p>
<p>Voters worried about the refugee issue were already likely to turn to the AfD. With the major parties governing together, however, the AfD will have even more impact as the leading force of the opposition. As the major parties begin exploratory talks on Jan. 7, they face the continuing dilemma of how to constrain the power of the AfD.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87990/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Elise Wiliarty receives funding from Wesleyan University, International Association for the Study of German Politics, German Academic Exchange Service. </span></em></p>Over three months since Germans voted in national elections, preliminary talks are due to start Jan. 7 on forming a coalition government. What has taken so long?Sarah Elise Wiliarty, Assistant Professor of Government, Wesleyan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/841672017-09-21T00:39:13Z2017-09-21T00:39:13ZGerman elections could bring a new wave of extremism<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186872/original/file-20170920-16430-147p9li.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=47%2C183%2C4494%2C1958&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Election posters in Frankfurt tout German Chancellor Angela Merkel and request votes for her CDU party. German elections will be held on Sunday but, as usual, the action begins after the race is over. The slogan reads "Successful for Germany"</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Michael Probst)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Not with a bang, but a whimper. <a href="https://msu.edu/%7Ejungahre/transmedia/the-hollow-men.html">T.S. Eliot’s famous line</a> could apply to the end of most German election campaigns. There are campaign posters and some rallies and one or two rhetorical flourishes which reflect a disquieting undercurrent of xenophobia, but on the whole these elections are rather tame.</p>
<p>The action heats up once campaigning stops. Since German elections rarely produce a majority government, the end of the campaign marks the start of negotiations between the largest faction in the Bundestag (federal parliament) and other parties willing to join a coalition government. Newcomer party, Alternative for Germany, (AfD), running on an anti-immigration platform, could become the major opposition party - and an obstacle to Angela Merkel’s CDU.</p>
<p>The jockeying will begin the same evening the election results are announced. In a peculiar German tradition, leaders of all major parties will appear together on TV to discuss the outcome. </p>
<p>This <em>Elefantenrunde</em> (elephants’ roundtable) is something to behold, and impossible to imagine in North America. The leaders usually just rehash the campaign, but sometimes it’s a little more exciting.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186861/original/file-20170920-16437-boozy8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186861/original/file-20170920-16437-boozy8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186861/original/file-20170920-16437-boozy8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186861/original/file-20170920-16437-boozy8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186861/original/file-20170920-16437-boozy8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186861/original/file-20170920-16437-boozy8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186861/original/file-20170920-16437-boozy8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A xenophobic election campaign poster for the Alternative for Germany (AfD). The tagline reads: Burkas? We’re more into bikinis. The party has seen success by embracing German fears about immigration.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To grasp the significance of the right-wing AfD party’s potential influence, one must first understand the context.</p>
<h2>Negotiations begin after the elections</h2>
<p>In 2005, then-chancellor Gerhard Schröder of the Social Democrats (SPD) was bested by Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader Angela Merkel. Her margin of victory was minute, but still a victory. Even so the <em>Elefantenrunde</em> was treated to the sight of Schröder futilely claiming that he had, in fact, won the election.</p>
<p>This year’s elephants’ roundtable won’t be that sensational, but the negotiations afterwards will be more important for Germany’s future than the election campaign that preceded them. </p>
<p>All polls predict Chancellor Merkel’s parties (the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union - CSU) will win the most seats, though not enough for a majority. Merkel will have to find a coalition partner, or partners. </p>
<p>From 2006 to 2009, and again since 2013, Merkel has governed in a “Grand Coalition” with the SPD, the country’s second-largest party. Ironically, while the CDU/CSU have based their entire campaign on the steadiness of Merkel and her government, the SPD have had to criticize a government they’ve helped run. That tends to take the wind out of one’s rhetorical sails. The SDP party was buoyed by the early positive response to the naming of former European Parliament president <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/09/martin-schulz-angela-merkel-germany-populism/539088/">Martin Schulz as their candidate for chancellor, but the joy was short-lived</a>. </p>
<p>The impact of globalization and the labour market reforms of Schröder’s government have weakened the SPD’s grip on the worker vote. To halt the decline, members of Germany’s oldest political party argue that the SPD must return to the opposition, otherwise it will continue to be boxed in by Merkel’s unerring political tactics.</p>
<p>If a coalition with the SPD proves impossible, Merkel can look to two other parties: the Free Democrats (FDP), a right-of-centre party; and the Greens, the environment party that governed with the SPD under Schröder. </p>
<h2>Green party’s platform now a universal one</h2>
<p>In one way, the Greens have been very successful. Climate change is accepted as fact in Germany. After the <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-accident.aspx">Fukushima catastrophe</a> of 2011, Merkel reversed course and began phasing out nuclear power. The “green consciousness” is now widely shared by Germans, making it difficult for the party to develop a platform that is uniquely theirs. </p>
<p>Merkel could partner with the FDP. In the last election they failed to obtain the 5 per cent of the vote required to enter parliament. For years the party was criticized as having no other platform than to be the junior coalition partner for either the CDU/CSU or the SPD. That and poor leadership cost them dearly. </p>
<p>This time round they will return to the Bundestag. Their improved standing is almost entirely thanks to leader Christian Lindner’s charisma. An untraditional marketing campaign featured Lindner in a photo that would be at home in a fashion magazine. The tagline “impatience is also a virtue” was tantalizing. But what did it mean in political terms? </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186885/original/file-20170920-28770-ag7iwg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186885/original/file-20170920-28770-ag7iwg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186885/original/file-20170920-28770-ag7iwg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186885/original/file-20170920-28770-ag7iwg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186885/original/file-20170920-28770-ag7iwg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186885/original/file-20170920-28770-ag7iwg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186885/original/file-20170920-28770-ag7iwg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A non-traditional campaign poster for the FDP, features the right-of-centre party’s leader, Christian Linder. The tagline reads: Impatience is also a virtue.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Unfortunately for Merkel, neither the Greens nor the FDP is polling spectacularly well, so their parliamentary factions might be too small to help her form a government. She could try to work with both of them, but Lindner has said that he can’t imagine participating in a government with the Greens and their more relaxed policy on immigration.</p>
<h2>Extreme politics pose challenges to Germany</h2>
<p>Two other parties will also be entering Parliament, though Merkel has ruled out a coalition with either of them. By occupying extremes on the political spectrum, these parties pose the greatest challenge to Germany’s political order. </p>
<p>The offspring of a leftist splinter group of the SPD and the Party of Democratic Socialism (the successor to the East German ruling party), the Left Party has been shunned by the older parties for its connections to Soviet-era politics. It has a solid core of support in the former East Germany, where it channels eastern disgruntlement with the loss of socialism. </p>
<p>But the Left Party’s attacks on capitalism have become a lot more respectable, or a lot less noticed, since a new kid arrived on the block: the Alternative for Germany (AfD). Originally focused on euroskepticism, the party has seen success by embracing German fears about immigration. </p>
<p>The AfD has no chance of winning, but has gained outsized media attention with little provocations. It currently trails only Merkel’s CDU/CSU and Schulz’s SPD in voter surveys. Its leaders have made racist and anti-Semitic statements. Like other populist movements, it has challenged the usual campaign norms, making other campaigns look stale by comparison.</p>
<p>One AfD campaign poster shows a pregnant woman with the caption “’New Germans?’ We’ll make them ourselves.” Another, picturing women from behind wearing skimpy bathing suits, reads: “ ‘Burqas?’ We’re more into bikinis.” For the anti-Islamist AfD, women are merely baby machines and sex objects.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186866/original/file-20170920-16032-1rz2ctx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186866/original/file-20170920-16032-1rz2ctx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186866/original/file-20170920-16032-1rz2ctx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186866/original/file-20170920-16032-1rz2ctx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186866/original/file-20170920-16032-1rz2ctx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186866/original/file-20170920-16032-1rz2ctx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186866/original/file-20170920-16032-1rz2ctx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A xenophobic election campaign poster for the Alternative for Germany (AfD). The tagline says: New Germans? We’ll make them ourselves. The party has seen success by embracing German fears about immigration.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The AfD’s xenophobic nationalism has struck a chord, and this hasn’t gone unnoticed by Merkel. She has tried to block further gains by the AfD by hardening her party’s stance on immigration. She called for a burqa ban, and has continued to resist calls that asylum seekers be permitted to have their immediate family members join them in Germany.</p>
<p>Whatever its make-up, the new government will face multiple challenges. Germany’s automobile industry is in the doghouse over its reluctance to part with eco-unfriendly diesel motors. The country’s relationship with Turkey is on the brink of collapse. The impact of Brexit on the European Union is still uncertain.</p>
<p>But two issues will predominate. The first is German identity. The presence of the AfD in the Bundestag will challenge Germany’s sense of itself. If Schulz’s SPD rejoins the government, the AfD could well be the largest opposition party. It will not forego any chance to hammer home its displeasure at the changing make-up of German society. </p>
<p>The other issue is Merkel herself. No other politician in Germany today has her knack for straddling the political centre and neutralizing the opposition. Only Merkel could have convinced Germans to welcome upwards of one million asylum seekers, and then still be praised for that openness while supporting a burqa ban. </p>
<p>But many think this will be her last election. Her eventual exit from the political scene will create a vacuum in her party and the country as a whole. Will extremism fill the void if the strength of Merkel’s centrism can’t be duplicated?</p>
<p>Yes, the 2017 campaign was bland. Nothing new there. But the resulting political atmosphere will be highly charged. The potential for drama is high.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84167/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James M. Skidmore does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>German elections are typically tame. Jockeying for power takes place later, in negotiations for a coalition government. Could the xenophobic Alternative for Germany form the opposition?James M. Skidmore, Director, Waterloo Centre for German Studies, University of WaterlooLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.