tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/department-of-defense-18634/articlesDepartment of Defense – The Conversation2023-09-15T17:36:07Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2135282023-09-15T17:36:07Z2023-09-15T17:36:07ZNASA report finds no evidence that UFOs are extraterrestrial<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548453/original/file-20230915-27-9mccw0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C14%2C4690%2C2810&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">NASA's UAP study team and newly appointed director of UAP research represent growing efforts to study and declassify UFO-related data. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/f277d5676ab5460186317c9f8fd11427?ext=true">AP Photo/Terry Renn</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>NASA’s <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-announces-unidentified-anomalous-phenomena-study-team-members/">independent study team</a> released its highly anticipated <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/science-pink/s3fs-public/atoms/files/UAP%20Independent%20Study%20Team%20-%20Final%20Report_0.pdf">report</a> on UFOs on Sept. 14, 2023. </p>
<p>In part to move beyond the <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/17/pentagon-dod-ufos-00032929">stigma often attached to UFOs</a>, where military pilots fear ridicule or job sanctions if they report them, UFOs are now characterized by the U.S. government as UAPs, or unidentified anomalous phenomena.</p>
<p>Bottom line: The study team found no evidence that reported UAP observations are extraterrestrial.</p>
<p>I’m a <a href="https://www.as.arizona.edu/people/faculty/chris-impey">professor of astronomy</a> who has written extensively on <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/living-cosmos/11D69005D09D25581AE4E6684EC8A3C1">astrobiology</a> and the <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/talking-about-life/696F47F802931AE9021CA72083313579">scientists</a> who search for life in the universe. I have long been <a href="https://theconversation.com/im-an-astronomer-and-i-think-aliens-may-be-out-there-but-ufo-sightings-arent-persuasive-150498">skeptical of the claim</a> that UFOs represent visits by aliens to Earth.</p>
<h2>From sensationalism to science</h2>
<p>During a <a href="https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/video/nasa-announces-findings-ufo-report-160301583.html">press briefing</a>, NASA Administrator <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-administrator-bill-nelson/">Bill Nelson</a> noted that NASA has scientific programs to search for <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/msr/">traces of life on Mars</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-search-for-alien-life-astronomers-will-look-for-clues-in-the-atmospheres-of-distant-planets-and-the-james-webb-space-telescope-just-proved-its-possible-to-do-so-184828">imprints of biology</a> in the atmospheres of exoplanets. He said he wanted to shift the UAP conversation from sensationalism to one of science.</p>
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<p>With this statement, Nelson was alluding to some of the more outlandish claims about UAPs and UFOs. At a <a href="https://theconversation.com/whistleblower-calls-for-government-transparency-as-congress-digs-for-the-truth-about-ufos-210435">congressional hearing in July</a>, former Pentagon intelligence officer <a href="https://www.space.com/us-hiding-evidence-alien-intelligence-ufo-whistleblower-claims">David Grusch testified</a> that the American government has been hiding evidence of crashed UAPs and alien biological specimens. <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/28/pentagon-ufo-boss-congress-hearing-00108822">Sean Kirkpatrick</a>, head of the Pentagon office charged with investigating UAPs, has denied these claims.</p>
<p>And the same week NASA’s report came out, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexican-congress-holds-hearing-ufos-featuring-purported-alien-bodies-2023-09-13/">Mexican lawmakers</a> were shown by journalist Jaime Maussan two tiny, 1,000-year-old bodies that he claimed were the remains of “non-human” beings. Scientists have called this <a href="https://www.livescience.com/62045-alien-mummies-explained.html">claim fraudulent</a> and say the mummies may have been looted from gravesites in Peru. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A controversial journalist presented the Mexican government with 1,000-year-old bodies that he claimed were aliens.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Conclusions from the report</h2>
<p>The NASA study team report sheds little light on whether some UAPs are extraterrestrial. In his comments, the chair of the study team, astronomer <a href="https://www.astro.princeton.edu/%7Edns/">David Spergel</a> stated that the team had seen “no evidence to suggest that UAPs are extraterrestrial in origin.” </p>
<p>Of the more than 800 unclassified sightings collected by the Department of Defense’s <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3100053/dod-announces-the-establishment-of-the-all-domain-anomaly-resolution-office/">All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office</a> and reported at the NASA panel’s <a href="https://interestingengineering.com/science/nasas-quest-for-unidentified-anomalies-among-ufos">first public meeting</a> back in May 2023, only “a small handful cannot be immediately identified as known human-made or natural phenomena,” according to <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/science-pink/s3fs-public/atoms/files/UAP%20Independent%20Study%20Team%20-%20Final%20Report_0.pdf">the report</a>. </p>
<p>Many of the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/28/us/politics/ufo-military-reports.html">recent sightings</a> can be attributed to weather balloons and airborne clutter. Historically, <a href="http://www.ianridpath.com/ufo/astroufo1.html">most UFOs are astronomical objects</a> such as meteors, <a href="https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/intro.html">fireballs</a> and <a href="https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/local/2023/03/02/venus-and-jupiter-appeared-close-sparking-concern-of-ufos-or-aliens/69963097007/">the planet Venus</a>. </p>
<p>Some sightings represent <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/28/us/politics/ufo-military-reports.html">surveillance operations</a> by foreign powers, which is why the U.S. military considers this <a href="https://theconversation.com/whistleblower-calls-for-government-transparency-as-congress-digs-for-the-truth-about-ufos-210435">a national security issue</a>.</p>
<p>The report does offer recommendations to NASA on how to move these investigations forward.</p>
<p>Most of the UAP data considered by the study team comes from U.S. military aircraft. Analysis of this data is “hampered by poor sensor calibration, the lack of multiple measurements, the lack of sensor metadata, and the lack of baseline data.” The ideal set of measurements would include optical imaging, infrared imaging, and radar data, but very few reports have all these.</p>
<p>The NASA study team described in the report the types of data that can shed more light on UAPs. The authors note the importance of reducing the stigma that can cause both military and commercial pilots to feel that they cannot freely report sightings. The stigma stems from decades of <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-we-alone-the-question-is-worthy-of-serious-scientific-study-98843">conspiracy theories tied to UFOs</a>. </p>
<p>The NASA study team suggests gathering sightings by commercial pilots using the Federal Aviation Administration and combining these with classified sightings not included in the report. Team members did not have security clearance, so they could look only at the subset of military sightings that were unclassified. At the moment, there is no anonymous nationwide UAP reporting mechanism for commercial pilots.</p>
<p>With access to these classified sightings and a structured mechanism for commercial pilots to report sightings, the <a href="https://www.aaro.mil/">All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office</a> – the military office charged with leading the analysis effort – could have the most data. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/update-nasa-shares-uap-independent-study-report-names-director">NASA also announced</a> the appointment of a new director of research on UAPs. This position will oversee the creation of a database with resources to evaluate UAP sightings. </p>
<h2>Looking for a needle in a haystack</h2>
<p>Parts of the briefing resembled a primer on the scientific method. Using analogies, officials described the analysis process as looking for a needle in a haystack, or separating the wheat from the chaff. The officials said they needed a consistent and rigorous methodology for characterizing sightings, as a way of homing in on something truly anomalous.</p>
<p>Spergel said the study team’s goal was to characterize the hay – or the mundane phenomena – and subtract it to find the needle, or the potentially exciting discovery. He noted that artificial intelligence can help researchers comb through massive datasets to find rare, anomalous phenomena. AI is already being used this way in <a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-is-helping-astronomers-make-new-discoveries-and-learn-about-the-universe-faster-than-ever-before-204351">many areas of astronomy research</a>.</p>
<p>The speakers noted the importance of transparency. Transparency is important because UFOs have long been associated with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/24/us/politics/ufo-report-us-pentagon.html">conspiracy theories and government cover-ups</a>. Similarly, much of the discussion during the congressional <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/26/politics/ufo-house-hearing-congress/index.html">UAP hearing</a> in July focused on a need for transparency. All scientific data that NASA gathers is made public on various websites, and officials said they intend to do the same with the nonclassified UAP data. </p>
<p>At the <a href="https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/video/nasa-announces-findings-ufo-report-160301583.html">beginning of the briefing</a>, Nelson gave his opinion that there were perhaps a trillion instances of life beyond Earth. So, it’s plausible that there is intelligent life out there. But the report says that when it comes to UAPs, extraterrestrial life must be the hypothesis of last resort. It quotes Thomas Jefferson: “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” That evidence does not yet exist.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213528/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Impey receives funding from the National Science Foundation.</span></em></p>Months after a military officer made sensational claims about unexplained objects in the skies, NASA released a report loosely outlining a scientific approach for analyzing UAP reports.Chris Impey, University Distinguished Professor of Astronomy, University of ArizonaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1974922023-01-18T13:37:43Z2023-01-18T13:37:43ZUS military spending in Ukraine reached nearly $50 billion in 2022 – but no amount of money alone is enough to end the war<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504990/original/file-20230117-18-t1ifnm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=265%2C0%2C5362%2C3983&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy went to the White House during a surprise visit to the U.S. in December 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1451126191/photo/president-biden-welcomes-president-of-ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-to-the-white-house.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=31RFFnAT0TgFDtmoCWvH20fOxz5uweIGyXDihEYrMfQ=">Drew Angerer/Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The U.S. Defense Department <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3261263/more-than-3-billion-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/">announced in early January</a> 2023 that it is giving a further US $3.1 billion in military aid to Ukraine in support of its war against the Russian invasion. </p>
<p>This new spending package includes a long list of advanced military weapons systems and artillery. </p>
<p>The U.S. has not formally declared war against Russia, but the battlefield in <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-isnt-at-war-with-russia-technically-but-its-support-for-ukraine-offers-a-classic-case-of-a-proxy-war-192064">Ukraine serves as a classic case of a proxy war</a>, waged without a formal declaration. U.S. support for Ukraine has been a constant throughout the first year of conflict, most recently extending as far as inviting Ukrainian forces to train <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3264235/ukrainian-troops-headed-to-us-for-patriot-missile-training/">on an Air Force system in the U.S.</a>. </p>
<p>I <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=HPHREV0AAAAJ&hl=en">am a scholar</a> of U.S. foreign policy and international security. As the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches on Feb. 24, 2023, I think it is important to put U.S. aid to Ukraine in perspective – both historically and as compared to other current U.S. military aid commitments worldwide. </p>
<p>Doing so may help answer an important question: Is the U.S. prepared to support Ukraine for the long haul, or will its current high level of spending commitment be undone by the whiplash of polarized U.S. domestic politics? Here are three key points about U.S. support for Ukraine to understand, and how the U.S. is signaling it will stand with Ukraine for the long term. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504982/original/file-20230117-22-rnznoj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Soldiers in green camouflage appear to point guns in different directions, while other soldiers in dark green stand behind them and look on." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504982/original/file-20230117-22-rnznoj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504982/original/file-20230117-22-rnznoj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504982/original/file-20230117-22-rnznoj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504982/original/file-20230117-22-rnznoj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504982/original/file-20230117-22-rnznoj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504982/original/file-20230117-22-rnznoj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504982/original/file-20230117-22-rnznoj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Members of the U.S. Army 173rd Airborne Brigade demonstrate urban warfare techniques to Ukrainian soldiers in Yavorov, Ukraine, in September 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/455527954/photo/rapid-trident-military-exercises-in-western-ukraine.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=nv3H2LOq0V2vqTsA2gdwdZYzoKIkzqAuFv-OtDOA88A=">Sean Gallup/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. US aid to Ukraine is immense</h2>
<p>The speed and quantity of U.S. military aid to Ukraine tells a story about how the U.S. and its allies see the stakes in the war’s outcome. U.S. military aid to Ukraine to date has been staggering, especially when compared to how the U.S. has supported other conflicts in modern history. U.S. military aid during the Cold War conflicts was orders of magnitude higher than spending in Ukraine, but those occurred over longer periods of time. The Vietnam War, for instance, cost the U.S. an estimated <a href="https://library.cqpress.com/cqalmanac/document.php?id=cqal75-1213988">$138.9 billion from 1965 to 1974</a>, or the <a href="https://www.thebalancemoney.com/vietnam-war-facts-definition-costs-and-timeline-4154921">equivalent of about</a> $1 trillion today. </p>
<p>In total, the U.S. approved <a href="https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts">about $50 billion</a> in aid for Ukraine in 2022. </p>
<p>About half of that money – or $24.9 billion – went toward <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3261263/more-than-3-billion-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/">military spending</a>. By comparison, U.S. military aid to Israel – a longtime <a href="https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-military-aid-does-the-us-give-to-israel/">top recipient</a> of U.S. military aid – in <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/57170576">2020 was $3.8 billion</a>. </p>
<p>The U.S. <a href="https://www.foreignassistance.gov/aid-trends">also gave $9.6 billion</a> to Ukraine for nonmilitary purposes in 2022, such as helping Ukrainians receive medical care and food. This marked a sharp increase from the $343 million total in foreign aid the <a href="https://www.foreignassistance.gov/aid-trends">U.S. gave Ukraine in 2021</a> – this included both military and economic assistance. </p>
<p>A critical question is whether Ukraine’s success in thwarting Russian military and political objectives will lead to a kind of ripple effect. In this situation, other countries that are similarly threatened by large authoritarian neighbors will ask for more U.S. or NATO military aid. The U.S. would then be faced with the challenge of whether to also give more money to these countries. </p>
<h2>2. Most – not all – Americans still want to help Ukraine</h2>
<p>For Western allies in Europe, particularly those like Poland that are physically closest to Ukraine, the war has come to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/situation-ukraine-an-existential-threat-europe-polish-pm-says-2022-03-01/">be seen as existential</a> – seriously threatening the stability of international politics and the organizations, like the United Nations, that were set up after World War II to prevent a third world war.</p>
<p>Americans do not face the immediate threat of a spillover ground war across borders like people in Europe could face. But most Americans still continue to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia. </p>
<p>In December 2022, 65% of Americans said they favor supplying arms to Ukraine, and 66% said they supported sending money directly, according to <a href="https://globalaffairs.org/sites/default/files/2022-12/Ukraine%20Brief%20CMS.pdf">the Chicago Council on Global Affairs</a>, a nonpartisan political think tank. More striking still, the same poll found that nearly 1 in 3 Americans support the idea of sending American troops into the fight – a number that has shifted only slightly since the start of the 2022 invasion.</p>
<p>But some Republicans in Congress want to see the U.S. cut back on foreign aid to Ukraine, and they are <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/3717304-more-republicans-opposed-to-continued-ukraine-aid-survey/">publicly divided</a> about why this should happen.</p>
<p>Early on in the war, when it looked to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/02/25/1083003231/as-russia-keeps-up-its-attack-how-long-can-ukraine-hold-the-capital-city">some observers</a> like Ukraine would fall quickly to Russia, some conservative lawmakers and others espoused fears that U.S. military systems or weapons <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/19/politics/us-weapons-ukraine-intelligence/index.html">would end up in Russia’s hands</a> and damage U.S. and NATO credibility. </p>
<p>This concern <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/11/01/us-weapons-ukraine-oversight/">continues today</a>, despite the fact that U.S. and Ukrainian officials have said that Russia does not appear to have grabbed U.S. weapons found in occupied or contested regions of Ukraine.</p>
<p>Ukraine has, instead, showed over the course of the conflict that it could prevent a Russian victory with only minimal outside support. It has also demonstrated that with additional money and military help, it could even <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-urges-ukraine-be-open-talks-with-russia-washington-post-2022-11-06/">retake lost ground.</a>. </p>
<p>And although there is bipartisan support, some Republicans — in particular conservatives aligned with former president Donald J. Trump’s <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-congress-14c038f0829fb18841359199248b50a7">isolationist “America First” stance</a> — have argued that the U.S. cannot afford to support Ukraine and also address <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/273418/unadjusted-monthly-inflation-rate-in-the-us/">high levels of inflation</a> at home. </p>
<p>Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican from Georgia, <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3719467-marjorie-taylor-greene-under-republicans-not-another-penny-will-go-to-ukraine/">said in November 2022</a> that with Republicans controlling the House of Representatives, “not another penny will go to Ukraine.” </p>
<p>A <a href="https://globalaffairs.org/sites/default/files/2022-12/Ukraine%20Brief%20CMS.pdf">November 2022 Chicago Council on Global Affairs poll</a> also found a significant decline in support for U.S. engagement in Ukraine among Republican respondents, from a high of 80% in March 2022 to 55% in December 2022. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505009/original/file-20230117-12-du24mq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People with reflective vests and dark clothing are seen unloading large boxes from an airplane at nighttime." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505009/original/file-20230117-12-du24mq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505009/original/file-20230117-12-du24mq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505009/original/file-20230117-12-du24mq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505009/original/file-20230117-12-du24mq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505009/original/file-20230117-12-du24mq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505009/original/file-20230117-12-du24mq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505009/original/file-20230117-12-du24mq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ground crew unloads U.S. military weapons and other hardware in Kyiv in January 2022, shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1237975325/photo/u-s-delivers-military-hardware-to-ukraine.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=8kvpJKorN1HZChBZHl3lGuwuXj5tscsw2MyI3qa40Gs=">Sean Gallup/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. US signals long-term aid to Ukraine</h2>
<p>The long-term impact of U.S. and <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_192648.htm">NATO military aid</a> on the war in Ukraine remains uncertain. On one hand, it’s clear that U.S. intelligence support, advanced weaponry and Ukraine’s skilled use of both has seriously hurt <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/29/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-artillery.html">Russia’s chances on the battlefield</a>.</p>
<p>On the other hand, Ukraine has demonstrated strong levels of <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2022/12/08/forward-resilience-how-to-help-ukraine-win-on-and-off-the-battlefield/">national unity, leadership and military competence</a>. So even perfect intelligence support and the most advanced U.S. weaponry wouldn’t have made much of a difference if Ukraine hadn’t shown such skill, courage and grit in the face of Russia’s still overwhelming advantages.</p>
<p>Quite a bit of the promised U.S. aid to Ukraine will be disbursed over a long period. Most of the funds will be spent by 2025, but some <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/aid-ukraine-explained-six-charts">will not arrive until 2030</a>. That’s because the bulk of the aid is for weapons that can be purchased from the U.S. and elsewhere, but that haven’t yet been built. This long-term time frame is also a clear indication that the U.S. plans to help Ukraine rebuild its military, even if the war ends in the near term. </p>
<p>Alongside its NATO allies, the U.S. appears committed to supporting Ukraine’s effort to defeat Russia on the battlefield or at least help provide Ukraine with the means to hurt Russia enough to begin to bring the fighting to an end. While <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64288267">Europeans debate supplying Ukraine with tanks</a>, the U.S. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-military-technology-ukraine-government-russia-war-2d59aae94a7ad8a5c22083e77d699417">also announced </a> in January 2023 that it it is sending a range of armored military vehicles to Ukraine. </p>
<p>But, by itself, I believe the most that military aid can accomplish is to feed a war of attrition. Ending the war will require more than smart weapons and grit. It will take political acumen and diplomatic efforts to help Ukraine continue to secure its independence and protect <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-war-attrition-stoltenberg-biden/31880711.html">against future Russian threats</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197492/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Monica Duffy Toft does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The US is giving record-high amounts of money to Ukraine, signaling it is invested in this war for the long run – a political science scholar explains 3 important things to know.Monica Duffy Toft, Professor of International Politics and Director of the Center for Strategic Studies at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1609692021-05-21T12:24:52Z2021-05-21T12:24:52ZZero-trust security: Assume that everyone and everything on the internet is out to get you – and maybe already has<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401994/original/file-20210520-15-1cy3o2r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3441%2C3080&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">For cybersecurity, your best bet is to assume that the enemy has already slipped inside.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/the-trojan-horse-royalty-free-illustration/1068250896?adppopup=true">clu/DigitalVision Vectors via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Joe Biden’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/05/12/executive-order-on-improving-the-nations-cybersecurity/">cybersecurity executive order</a>, signed May 12, 2021, calls for the federal government to adopt a “zero-trust architecture.”</p>
<p>This raises a couple of questions. What is zero-trust security? And, if trust is bad for cybersecurity, why do most organizations in government and the private sector do it?</p>
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<p>One consequence of too much trust online is the ransomware epidemic, a <a href="https://www.techrepublic.com/article/infographic-ransomware-attacks-by-industry-continent-and-more/">growing global problem</a> that affects organizations large and small. High-profile breaches such as the one experienced by the <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2021/5/15/22437730/colonial-pipeline-normal-ransomware-attack-fuel">Colonial Pipeline</a> are merely the tip of the iceberg. </p>
<p>There were <a href="https://blog.emsisoft.com/en/37314/the-state-of-ransomware-in-the-us-report-and-statistics-2020/">at least 2,354 ransomware attacks</a> on local governments, health care facilities and schools in the U.S. last year. Although estimates vary, losses to ransomware seem to have <a href="https://www.computerweekly.com/news/252498029/Average-ransomware-cost-triples-says-report">tripled in 2020</a> to more than US$300,000 per incident. And ransomware attacks are <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/ransomware-double-encryption/">growing more sophisticated</a>.</p>
<p>A recurring theme in many of these breaches is misplaced trust – in vendors, employees, software and hardware. As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=YtgRGx0AAAAJ&hl=en">scholar of cybersecurity policy</a> with a recent <a href="https://www.ibrc.indiana.edu/studies/State-of-Hoosier-Cybersecurity-2020.pdf">report on this topic</a>, I have been interested in questions of trust. I’m also the executive director of the <a href="https://ostromworkshop.indiana.edu/index.html">Ostrom Workshop</a>. The Workshop’s <a href="https://ostromworkshop.indiana.edu/research/cybersecurity/index.html">Program on Cybersecurity and Internet Governance</a> focuses on many of the tenets of zero-trust security by looking to analogies – including public health and sustainable development – to build resilience in distributed systems.</p>
<h2>Security without trust</h2>
<p>Trust in the context of computer networks refers to systems that allow people or other computers access with little or no verification of who they are and whether they are authorized to have access. <a href="https://media.defense.gov/2021/Feb/25/2002588479/-1/-1/0/CSI_EMBRACING_ZT_SECURITY_MODEL_UOO115131-21.PDF">Zero Trust</a> is a security model that takes for granted that threats are omnipresent inside and outside networks. Zero trust instead relies on continuous verification via information from multiple sources. In doing so, this approach assumes the inevitability of a data breach. Instead of focusing exclusively on preventing breaches, zero-trust security ensures instead that damage is limited, and that the system is resilient and can quickly recover.</p>
<p>Using the <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-internet-of-things-9780190943806?cc=us&lang=en&">public health analogy</a>, a zero-trust approach to cybersecurity assumes that an infection is only a cough – or, in this case, a click – away, and focuses on building an immune system capable of dealing with whatever novel virus may come along. Put another way, instead of defending a castle, this model assumes that the invaders are already inside the walls. </p>
<p>It’s not hard to see the benefits of the zero-trust model. If the Colonial Pipeline company had adopted it, for example, the ransomware attack would likely have failed and people wouldn’t have been <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/12/business/panic-buying-gas-colonial-pipeline/index.html">panic-buying</a> gasoline in recent days. And if zero-trust security were widespread, the ransomware epidemic would be a lot less biting. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401978/original/file-20210520-15-w6btht.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A handwritten sign posted on a gas pump showing that the service station is out of all grades of fuel" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401978/original/file-20210520-15-w6btht.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401978/original/file-20210520-15-w6btht.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401978/original/file-20210520-15-w6btht.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401978/original/file-20210520-15-w6btht.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401978/original/file-20210520-15-w6btht.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401978/original/file-20210520-15-w6btht.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401978/original/file-20210520-15-w6btht.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Widespread adoption of zero-trust security would minimize episodes like the panic-buying of gasoline in response to the Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/PipelineCybersecurityAttack/dab5942888e84d32b24443bdb2c8b582/photo?boardId=6576eeb175bb4623a6e17828de4a73e8&st=boards&mediaType=audio,photo,video,graphic&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=2&currentItemNo=1">AP Photo/Chris Carlson</a></span>
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<h2>Four obstacles to shedding trust</h2>
<p>But there are at least <a href="https://www.beyondtrust.com/blog/entry/why-zero-trust-is-an-unrealistic-security-model">four main barriers to achieving zero trust</a> in government and private computer systems.</p>
<p>First, legacy systems and infrastructure are often impossible to upgrade to become zero-trust. Achieving zero-trust security requires a <a href="https://www.ibm.com/docs/en/i/7.3?topic=security-layered-defense-approach">layered defense</a>, which involves building multiple layers of security, not unlike a stack of Swiss cheese. But this is challenging in systems that were not built with this goal in mind, because it requires <a href="https://www.cipherspace.com/infographics/zero-trust-security/">independent verification</a> at every layer. </p>
<p>Second, even if it’s possible to upgrade, it’s going to cost you. It is costly, time-consuming and potentially disruptive to redesign and redeploy systems, especially if they are custom-made. The U.S. Department of Defense alone <a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/americas-cyber-future-security-and-prosperity-in-the-information-age">operates more than 15,000 networks</a> in 4,000 installations spread across 88 countries.</p>
<p>Third, <a href="https://techterms.com/definition/p2p">peer-to-peer technologies</a>, like computers running Windows 10 on a local network, run counter to zero trust because they rely mostly on passwords, not real-time, multifactor authentication. Passwords can be cracked by computers rapidly checking many possible passwords – <a href="https://www.csoonline.com/article/3563352/brute-force-attacks-explained-and-why-they-are-on-the-rise.html">brute-force attacks</a> – whereas real-time, <a href="https://cr-t.com/blog/why-multi-factor-authentication-is-way-better-than-just-passwords/">multifactor authentication</a> requires passwords and one or more additional forms of verification, typically a code sent by email or text. Google recently announced its decision to <a href="https://www.computerweekly.com/news/252500323/Google-to-introduce-mandatory-MFA-for-users">mandate multifactor authentication</a> for all its users.</p>
<p>Fourth, migrating an organization’s information systems from in-house computers to cloud services can boost zero trust, but only if it’s done right. This calls for creating new applications in the cloud rather than simply moving existing applications into the cloud. But organizations have to know to plan for zero-trust security when moving to the cloud. The 2018 <a href="https://media.defense.gov/2019/Feb/04/2002085866/-1/-1/1/DOD-CLOUD-STRATEGY.PDF">DoD Cloud Strategy</a>, for example, does not even reference “zero trust.” </p>
<h2>Enter the Biden administration</h2>
<p>The Biden administration’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/05/12/executive-order-on-improving-the-nations-cybersecurity/">executive order</a> attempts to foster a layered defense to address the nation’s cybersecurity woes. The executive order followed several recommendations from the 2020 <a href="https://theconversation.com/government-cybersecurity-commission-calls-for-international-cooperation-resilience-and-retaliation-133610">Cyberspace Solarium Commission</a>, a commission formed by Congress to develop a strategic approach to defending the U.S. in cyberspace.</p>
<p>Among other things, it builds from zero-trust frameworks propounded by the National Institute for Standards and Technology. It also taps the Department of Homeland Security to take the lead on implementing these zero-trust techniques, including in its cloud-based programs. </p>
<p>I believe that when coupled with other initiatives spelled out in the executive order – such as creating a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-needs-an-ntsb-for-cyberattacks-11559700060">Cybersecurity Safety Board</a> and imposing new requirements for <a href="https://www.cisa.gov/publication/software-supply-chain-attacks">software supply chain security</a> for federal vendors – zero-trust security takes the U.S. in the right direction. </p>
<p>However, the executive order applies only to government systems. It wouldn’t have stopped the Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack, for instance. Getting the country as a whole on a more secure footing requires helping the private sector adopt these security practices, and that will require <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/76154/the-new-cyber-executive-order-is-a-good-start-but-needs-a-supercharge-from-congress/">action from Congress</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 106,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160969/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott Shackelford is a principal investigator on grants from the Hewlett Foundation, Indiana Economic Development Corporation, and the Microsoft Corporation supporting both the Ostrom Workshop Program on Cybersecurity and Internet Governance and the Indiana University Cybersecurity Clinic.</span></em></p>Most people think of trust as active – you place your trust in someone or you don’t. But weak cybersecurity, like leaving your front door unlocked, is a matter of trust, too.Scott Shackelford, Associate Professor of Business Law and Ethics; Executive Director, Ostrom Workshop; Cybersecurity Program Chair, IU-Bloomington, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1530842021-02-09T13:31:36Z2021-02-09T13:31:36ZThe SolarWinds hack was all but inevitable – why national cyber defense is a ‘wicked’ problem and what can be done about it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381205/original/file-20210128-17-2pe4ll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2592%2C1718&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Military units like the 780th Military Intelligence Brigade shown here are just one component of U.S. national cyber defense.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ftmeade/43693064352/">Fort George G. Meade Public Affairs Office/Flickr</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>An updated version of this article was published on May 10, 2021. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-colonial-pipeline-ransomware-attack-and-the-solarwinds-hack-were-all-but-inevitable-why-national-cyber-defense-is-a-wicked-problem-160661">Read it here</a>.</em></p>
<p><strong>Takeaways:</strong></p>
<p>· <strong>There are no easy solutions to shoring up U.S. national cyber defenses.</strong></p>
<p>· <strong>Software supply chains are vulnerable to hackers.</strong></p>
<p>· <strong>Many U.S. companies outsource software development because of a talent shortage, and some of that outsourcing goes to companies in Eastern Europe that are vulnerable to Russian operatives.</strong></p>
<p>· <strong>U.S. national cyber defense is split between the Department of Defense and the Department of Homeland Security, which leaves gaps in authority.</strong></p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/14/politics/us-agencies-hack-solar-wind-russia/index.html">SolarWinds hack</a> was more than just one of the most devastating cyber attacks in history. It was a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sunburst-hack-was-massive-and-devastating-5-observations-from-a-cybersecurity-expert-152444">major breach of national security</a> that revealed gaps in U.S. cyber defenses.</p>
<p>These gaps include inadequate security by a major software producer, fragmented authority for government support to the private sector, and a national shortfall in software and cybersecurity skills. None of these gaps is easily bridged, but the scope and impact of the SolarWinds attack show how critical they are to U.S. national security. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://us-cert.cisa.gov/ncas/alerts/aa20-352a">SolarWinds breach</a>, likely carried out by a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-cyber-solarwinds/solarwinds-hackers-linked-to-known-russian-spying-tools-investigators-say-idUSKBN29G0XT?mc_cid=4c17adaecd&mc_eid=464227173b">group affiliated with Russia’s FSB security service</a>, compromised the software development supply chain used by SolarWinds to update 18,000 users of its Orion network management product. The hack, which allegedly began in early 2020, was discovered only in December when cybersecurity company <a href="https://www.fireeye.com/">FireEye revealed</a> that it had been hit by the malware. More worrisome, this may have been <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/suspected-russian-hack-extends-far-beyond-solarwinds-software-investigators-say-11611921601">part of a broader attack</a> on government and commercial targets in the U.S. </p>
<h2>Supply chains, sloppy security and a talent shortage</h2>
<p>The vulnerability of the software supply chain – the collections of software components and software development services companies use to build software products – is a well-known problem in the security field. In response to a 2017 <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidential-executive-order-assessing-strengthening-manufacturing-defense-industrial-base-supply-chain-resiliency-united-states/">executive order</a>, a <a href="https://media.defense.gov/2018/Oct/05/2002048904/-1/-1/1/ASSESSING-AND-STRENGTHENING-THE-MANUFACTURING-AND-DEFENSE-INDUSTRIAL-BASE-AND-SUPPLY-CHAIN-RESILIENCY.PDF">report by a Department of Defense-led interagency task force</a> identified “a surprising level of foreign dependence,” workforce challenges and critical capabilities such as printed circuit board manufacturing that companies are moving offshore in pursuit of competitive pricing. All these factors came into play in the SolarWinds attack.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ljT4AcCza9Q?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Software supply chain attacks explained.</span></figcaption>
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<p>SolarWinds, driven by its growth strategy and plans to <a href="https://www.channelfutures.com/business-models/solarwinds-msp-business-spinoff-expected-by-mid-2021">spin off its managed service provider business</a> in 2021, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-21/solarwinds-adviser-warned-of-lax-security-years-before-hack">bears much of the responsibility</a> for the damage, according to cybersecurity experts. I believe that the company put itself at risk by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/02/us/politics/russian-hacking-government.html?searchResultPosition=1">outsourcing its software development to Eastern Europe</a>, including a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/06/us/politics/russia-cyber-hack.html">company in Belarus</a>. Russian operatives have been known to use companies in former Soviet satellite countries to insert malware into software supply chains. Russia used this technique in the 2017 <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/notpetya-cyberattack-ukraine-russia-code-crashed-the-world/">NotPetya attack</a> that cost global companies more than US$10 billion.</p>
<p>SolarWinds also <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/solarwinds-warned-weak-123-password-could-expose-firm-report-2020-12">failed to practice basic cybersecurity hygiene</a>, according to a cybersecurity researcher.
Vinoth Kumar reported that the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/solarwinds-warned-weak-123-password-could-expose-firm-report-2020-12">password</a> for the software company’s development server was allegedly “solarwinds123,” an egregious violation of fundamental standards of cybersecurity. SolarWinds’ sloppy password management is ironic in light of the Password Management Solution of the Year <a href="https://www.solarwindsmsp.com/about-us/press/press-releases/solarwinds-wins-password-management-solution-year-award-2019">award the company received</a> in 2019 for its Passportal product.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://orangematter.solarwinds.com/2021/01/11/new-findings-from-our-investigation-of-sunburst/">blog post</a>, the company admitted that “the attackers were able to circumvent threat detection techniques employed by both SolarWinds, other private companies, and the federal government.”</p>
<p>The larger question is why SolarWinds, an American company, had to turn to foreign providers for software development. A Department of Defense <a href="https://media.defense.gov/2018/Oct/05/2002048904/-1/-1/1/ASSESSING-AND-STRENGTHENING-THE-MANUFACTURING-AND-DEFENSE-INDUSTRIAL-BASE-AND-SUPPLY-CHAIN-RESILIENCY.PDF">report about supply chains</a> characterizes the lack of software engineers as a crisis, partly because the education pipeline is not providing enough software engineers to meet demand in the commercial and defense sectors. </p>
<p>There’s also a shortage of <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/cyber-strategy-and-talent">cybersecurity talent</a> in the U.S. Engineers, software developers and network engineers are among the <a href="https://www.cyberseek.org/heatmap.html">most needed skills across the U.S.</a>, and the lack of software engineers who focus on the security of software in particular is acute. </p>
<h2>Fragmented authority</h2>
<p>Though I’d argue SolarWinds has much to answer for, it should not have had to defend itself against a state-orchestrated cyber attack on its own. The <a href="https://fcw.com/articles/2018/09/20/wh-cyber-policy.aspx">2018 National Cyber Strategy</a> describes how supply chain security should work. The government determines the security of federal contractors like SolarWinds by reviewing their risk management strategies, ensuring that they are informed of threats and vulnerabilities, and responding to incidents on their systems.</p>
<p>However, this official strategy split these responsibilities between the DOD for defense and intelligence systems and the Department of Homeland Security for civil agencies, continuing a fragmented approach to information security that <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/T-IMTEC-87-2">began in the Reagan era</a>. Execution of the strategy relies on the DOD’s <a href="https://www.cybercom.mil/">U.S. Cyber Command</a> and DHS’s <a href="https://www.cisa.gov/">Cyber and Infrastructure Security Agency</a>. DOD’s <a href="https://media.defense.gov/2018/Sep/18/2002041658/-1/-1/1/CYBER_STRATEGY_SUMMARY_FINAL.PDF">strategy</a> is to “defend forward”: that is, to disrupt malicious cyber activity at its source, which proved effective in the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-cyber-command-operation-disrupted-internet-access-of-russian-troll-factory-on-day-of-2018-midterms/2019/02/26/1827fc9e-36d6-11e9-af5b-b51b7ff322e9_story.html">runup to the 2018 midterm elections</a>. The Cyber and Infrastructure Security Agency, established in 2018, is responsible for providing information about threats to <a href="https://www.cisa.gov/critical-infrastructure-sectors">critical infrastructure sectors</a>. </p>
<p>Neither agency appears to have sounded a warning or attempted to mitigate the attack on SolarWinds. The government’s response came only after the attack. The Cyber and Infrastructure Security Agency issued <a href="https://us-cert.cisa.gov/ncas/current-activity/2021/01/06/cisa-updates-emergency-directive-21-01-supplemental-guidance-and">alerts and guidance</a>, and a <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/07/26/presidential-policy-directive-united-states-cyber-incident">Cyber Unified Coordination Group</a> was formed to facilitate coordination among federal agencies. </p>
<p>These tactical actions, while useful, were only a partial solution to the larger, strategic problem. The fragmentation of the authorities for national cyber defense evident in the SolarWinds hack is a strategic weakness that complicates cybersecurity for the government and private sector and invites more attacks on the software supply chain.</p>
<h2>A wicked problem</h2>
<p>National cyber defense is an example of a “<a href="https://www.stonybrook.edu/commcms/wicked-problem/about/What-is-a-wicked-problem">wicked problem</a>,” a policy problem that has no clear solution or measure of success. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/government-cybersecurity-commission-calls-for-international-cooperation-resilience-and-retaliation-133610">Cyberspace Solarium Commission</a> identified many inadequacies of U.S. national cyber defenses. In its 2020 report, the commission noted that “There is still not a clear unity of effort or theory of victory driving the federal government’s approach to protecting and securing cyberspace.” </p>
<p>Many of the factors that make developing a centralized national cyber defense challenging lie outside of the government’s direct control. For example, economic forces push technology companies to get their products to market quickly, which can lead them to take shortcuts that undermine security. Legislation along the lines of the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/106/plaws/publ102/PLAW-106publ102.pdf">Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act</a> passed in 1999 could help deal with the need for speed in software development. The law placed security requirements on financial institutions. But software development companies are likely to push back against additional regulation and oversight.</p>
<p>The Biden administration appears to be taking the challenge seriously. The president has appointed a <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/06/biden-white-house-cybersecurity-neuberger-455508">national cybersecurity director</a> to coordinate related government efforts. It remains to be seen whether and how the administration will address the problem of fragmented authorities and clarify how the government will protect companies that supply critical digital infrastructure. It’s unreasonable to expect any U.S. company to be able to fend for itself against a foreign nation’s cyberattack. </p>
<h2>Steps forward</h2>
<p>In the meantime, software developers can apply the <a href="https://www.nccoe.nist.gov/sites/default/files/NIST-SSDF-Webinar.pdf">secure software development approach</a> advocated by the National Institute of Standards and Technology. Government and industry can prioritize the development of artificial intelligence that can identify malware in existing systems. All this takes time, however, and hackers move quickly.</p>
<p>Finally, companies need to aggressively assess their vulnerabilities, particularly by engaging in more <a href="https://resources.infosecinstitute.com/topic/red-teaming-overview-assessment-methodology/">“red teaming</a>” activities: that is, having employees, contractors or both play the role of hackers and attack the company. </p>
<p>Recognizing that hackers in the service of foreign adversaries are dedicated, thorough and bar no holds is important for anticipating their next moves and reinforcing and improving U.S. national cyber defenses. Otherwise, SolarWinds is unlikely to be the last victim of a major attack on the U.S. software supply chain.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153084/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Terry Thompson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fragmented authority for national cyber defense and global supply chains for building software stack the deck against US cybersecurity.Terry Thompson, Adjunct Instructor in Cybersecurity, Johns Hopkins UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1498532020-11-18T13:36:56Z2020-11-18T13:36:56ZTrump’s purge of defense agencies comes at a vulnerable time for US national security<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369893/original/file-20201117-19-1oyrp8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C143%2C7029%2C4495&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Marines at Camp Post, Afghanistan, Sept. 11, 2020, on the 19th anniversary of the terror attacks that began the U.S. war there. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/marines-talk-in-the-gym-at-camp-bost-on-september-11-2017-news-photo/849103532">Andrew Renneisen/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Donald Trump’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/09/us/politics/esper-defense-secretary.html">recent firing of Defense Secretary Mark Esper</a> and subsequent <a href="https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-army-christopher-miller-mark-esper-james-anderson-95f848b7cdaba116b7c09787edb4c839">resignations from the department of four more top civilian officials</a> – either in protest or under pressure – are raising alarms in Washington. All were <a href="https://www.defense.gov/Our-Story/Biographies/Biography/Article/2111192/christopher-c-miller/">replaced by people with questionable qualifications</a>. </p>
<p>One <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/10/politics/pentagon-policy-official-resigns/index.html">defense official described the situation</a> to CNN as “scary” and “very unsettling.” </p>
<p>On Nov. 17, Trump also fired the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/17/politics/chris-krebs-fired-by-trump/index.html">cybersecurity director at the Department of Homeland Security</a>, who had rejected the president’s claims of election fraud. Trump is reportedly weighing the additional termination of CIA director Gina Haspel as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/12/politics/gop-defend-haspel-trump/index.html">part of a late-term purge</a>.</p>
<p>The transition period between two administrations, especially ones that are ideologically opposed, can <a href="https://theconversation.com/lopez-obrador-takes-power-in-mexico-after-an-unstable-transition-and-broken-campaign-promises-105343">be a socially and politically unstable time</a>. Trump’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/12/briefing/ron-klain-jeffrey-toobin-tropical-storm-eta.html">refusal to concede increases that instability this year</a>. </p>
<p>Major personnel changes at America’s defense and intelligence agencies make it difficult for these departments to <a href="https://www.usa.gov/federal-agencies/u-s-department-of-defense">maintain the daily operations</a> that oversee military forces and protect U.S. national security – much less follow strategic plans.</p>
<p>A lapse in preparedness can be deadly. According to the 9/11 Commission, the unusually short transition period <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/11/former-bush-chief-of-staff-cites-9/11-warns-about-slow-transition.html">between the Clinton and Bush administrations</a> – truncated by the dispute over the election’s outcome – resulted in some of the intelligence and policy deficiencies that allowed Al-Qaida to attack and kill close to 3,000 Americans. </p>
<h2>Politicizing national security</h2>
<p>Political appointments have always <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1253.html">influenced the American security apparatus</a>. But this problem has intensified dramatically in recent years. If security and intelligence agencies make decisions based on narrow political considerations like satisfying the personal grudge or campaign promise of a president, it can put lives at risk. </p>
<p>Trump’s latest Defense Department appointments have some necessary policy experience. But their main attribute appears to be <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/20/opinions/richard-grenell-disastrous-dni-choice-andelman/index.html">loyalty to the president</a>. Loyalty goes beyond partisanship. It means policy decisions may be subject to the personal interests of the president. </p>
<p>For example, Defense Secretary Esper may have lost his job for opposing the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/11/politics/douglas-macgregor-pentagon/index.html">sped-up withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan</a> now underway. A withdrawal is in line with Trump’s 2016 campaign pledge to end “endless wars.” <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/11/trump-new-pentagon-clash-afghanistan-436120">One former CIA official described</a> the Afghanistan troop drawdown as “reckless.” </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369892/original/file-20201117-23-1by83m1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Esper testifying in Congress, holding a piece of paper" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369892/original/file-20201117-23-1by83m1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369892/original/file-20201117-23-1by83m1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369892/original/file-20201117-23-1by83m1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369892/original/file-20201117-23-1by83m1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369892/original/file-20201117-23-1by83m1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369892/original/file-20201117-23-1by83m1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369892/original/file-20201117-23-1by83m1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper was reportedly fired for opposing Trump’s Afghanistan troop withdrawal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/secretary-of-defense-mark-esper-testifies-before-the-us-news-photo/1225947042">Michael Reynolds-Pool/Getty Images)</a></span>
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<p>Brig. Gen. Antony Tata, who on Nov. 10 <a href="https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2020/11/anthony-tata-named-undersecretary-policy/169926/">replaced Esper’s second-in-command James Anderson as undersecretary of defense for policy</a>, is known for his <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/12/politics/pentagon-nominee-tata-trump-kfile/index.html">vocal criticism of Democrats</a>. In one 2018 tweet he called former President Barack Obama a “terrorist leader.”</p>
<p>U.S. intelligence has also become politicized under Trump. </p>
<p>The roles of <a href="https://www.dni.gov/index.php/who-we-are/leadership/director-of-national-intelligence">CIA director and director of national intelligence</a> have both traditionally been held by nonpartisan figures with substantial military and intelligence experience. Trump replaced one such figure, former Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, with a series of partisan appointees, some of whom were <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/19/us/politics/dni-national-intelligence-director-grenell.html">never vetted or confirmed by the Senate</a>. Finally he chose <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/senate-confirms-john-ratcliffe-as-next-director-of-national-intelligence/2020/05/21/81a9f0be-9ada-11ea-ac72-3841fcc9b35f_story.html">John Ratcliffe</a>, a Republican congressman loyal to Trump who has no intelligence experience. </p>
<h2>Lives at stake</h2>
<p>Politicization undermines the ability of the intelligence community to deliver an unbiased, accurate and critical assessment of U.S. security policies and potential threats. That compromises the standing and effectiveness of these agencies.</p>
<p>“If people believe that our intelligence community is politicized, it will lose its credibility,” wrote intelligence veteren Michael Morell, a former CIA acting director, in a blunt Oct. 12 <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/12/trumps-intel-chief-is-undermining-us-intelligence-he-should-resign/">Washington Post op-ed</a>. “Its views on important issues will carry less weight with policymakers and the American people, and it will therefore be less effective in warning of threats to our national security.”</p>
<p>“We will all be less safe as a result,” Morrell concluded. </p>
<p>Ratcliffe lost credibility within months of his <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/senate-confirms-john-ratcliffe-as-next-director-of-national-intelligence/2020/05/21/81a9f0be-9ada-11ea-ac72-3841fcc9b35f_story.html">May 2020 confirmation</a> when he overrode <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/30/politics/ratcliffe-unverified-intelligence-concerns/index.html">the advice of numerous colleagues</a> to declassify “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/dni-ratcliffe-has-broken-his-promise-to-keep-politics-out-of-intelligence-agency-veterans-say/2020/10/08/2dded958-0985-11eb-9be6-cf25fb429f1a_story.html">at the direction of the president of the United States</a>” sensitive information based on unsubstantiated Russian sources.</p>
<p>The intelligence, which alleged that Hillary Clinton tried to create a scandal in 2016 by tying Trump to Russian hacking, was released 35 days before the 2020 election in an apparent bid to damage the Democratic Party.</p>
<p>Intelligence may be declassified when “public interest in disclosure outweighs the damage to national security.” Ratcliffe’s case did not meet this bar, <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/john-ratcliffes-dangerous-declassification-game">according to experienced legal experts</a>. </p>
<h2>Eroding civilian oversight</h2>
<p>A desire to aid Trump’s presidential campaign may also explain Ratcliffe’s attempt to limit civilian supervision over intelligence agencies. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369894/original/file-20201117-15-9c5syq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Ratcliffe walks with several other people in the US Capitol." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369894/original/file-20201117-15-9c5syq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369894/original/file-20201117-15-9c5syq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369894/original/file-20201117-15-9c5syq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369894/original/file-20201117-15-9c5syq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369894/original/file-20201117-15-9c5syq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369894/original/file-20201117-15-9c5syq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369894/original/file-20201117-15-9c5syq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Ratcliffe arrives for a congressional briefing July 2, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/john-ratcliff-director-of-national-intelligence-arrives-for-news-photo/1253887771">Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images News</a></span>
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<p>One of Congress’ major duties is to supervise and monitor the various agencies of the executive branch. Legislative supervision is carried out via the <a href="https://warontherocks.com/2018/03/at-a-crossroads-part-i-how-congress-can-find-its-way-back-to-effective-defense-oversight/">control over budgeting, appointments and specialized investigative and legislative forums and committees</a>. </p>
<p>Congressional oversight is particularly important with secretive agencies like the CIA, National Security Agency and the FBI. </p>
<p>These agencies have powers that <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-punishes-international-criminal-court-for-investigating-potential-war-crimes-in-afghanistan-143886">can undermine constitutional guarantees, civil rights and international law</a>. They undertake missions that may endanger American lives and have far-reaching consequences for the United States’ domestic security and international relationships. Occasionally they <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/how-fbi-violated-privacy-rights-tens-thousands-americans">have violated legal norms</a>. </p>
<p>Yet in August Director of National Intelligence Ratcliffe announced he would <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/08/30/adam-schiff-vows-compel-intel-after-john-ratcliffe-stops-briefings/5674373002/">end in-person briefings to Congress until after the Nov. 3 elections</a>, allegedly <a href="https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/08/30/us-spy-chief-texas-john-ratcliffe-stirs-uproar-by-ending-congress-briefings-on-foreign-election-meddling/">to reduce leaks</a>. Ratcliffe reversed his decision after pressure from Congress. But attempting to keep U.S. intelligence from lawmakers was unprecedented. </p>
<h2>End of an era</h2>
<p>Congressional supervision of defense and intelligence functions was, until recently, one of the few reliably bipartisan enclaves of American politics. </p>
<p>From Republicans like the late Sen. John McCain to Democrats like President-elect Joe Biden, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/18/politics/senate-intelligence-report-russia-election-interference-efforts/index.html">lawmakers from both sides of the aisle</a> have come together to ensure these agencies work in legal and ethical ways to protect national security. </p>
<p>Congress authorizes wars, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2011/09/30/politics/targeting-us-citizens/index.html">anti-terror missions</a>, foreign negotiations and even the detention of American citizens based on the intelligence it receives. Oversight allows Congress to trust this information is accurate, unbiased and realistic. </p>
<p>Congressional supervision is a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/08/magazine/08court.html">check on the executive-controlled intelligence and security agencies</a>. With the country experiencing political and social instability, this civilian authority is more critical than ever.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149853/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Arie Perliger does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Investigations of the 9/11 attacks show that a short, unstable transition between two presidents can weaken US security. Trump’s sweeping staff changes compound the risk, experts say.Arie Perliger, Director of Security Studies and Professor, UMass LowellLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1336102020-05-12T12:35:22Z2020-05-12T12:35:22ZGovernment cybersecurity commission calls for international cooperation, resilience and retaliation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333751/original/file-20200508-49579-1pe7uye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7065%2C4875&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Real-time cyberattacks on a display at the 175th Cyberspace Operations Group of the Maryland Air National Guard.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flickr.com/photos/airmanmagazine/40080902694/">U.S. Air Force photo by J.M. Eddins Jr.</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The global commons are under assault in cyberspace. Ransomware attacks, including North Korea’s <a href="https://www.csoonline.com/article/3227906/what-is-wannacry-ransomware-how-does-it-infect-and-who-was-responsible.html">WannaCry</a> and Russia’s <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/notpetya-cyberattack-ukraine-russia-code-crashed-the-world/">NotPetya</a>, have disrupted vital medical services and global transportation systems, costing billions of dollars. <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/should-the-us-expect-an-iranian-cyberattack">Iran</a> and <a href="https://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/oso/9780190618094.001.0001/oso-9780190618094">China</a> have engaged in similar actions.</p>
<p>These cyberattacks are carried out by states and nonstate actors that seek to undermine global connectivity for their own interests. But like a pandemic, these attacks affect all of society. The world needs a new approach to combating how nations use cyberspace to advance their interests at the expense of people around the world. </p>
<p>The U.S. <a href="https://www.solarium.gov/">Cyberspace Solarium Commission</a> was formed by Congress in 2018 to develop a strategic approach to defending the United States in cyberspace. It provided a road map for establishing cooperation and accountability in cyberspace. The commission consisted of four federal legislators, the deputies of the Department of Homeland Security, Department of Defense, office of the Director of National Intelligence and Department of Justice, and six private-sector experts. One of us, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=7sjhifoAAAAJ&hl=en">Benjamin Jensen</a>, served as the commission’s senior research director.</p>
<p>The commissioners and staff conducted more than 400 interviews with cybersecurity professionals, researchers and officials in the private sector, academia and foreign governments. The commission’s <a href="https://www.solarium.gov/report">final report</a>, released in March, lays out a comprehensive plan of action based on a new strategy: layered cyber deterrence. </p>
<h2>Layered cyber deterrence</h2>
<p>The proposed strategy breaks new ground in two ways. First, it asserts that contrary to <a href="https://www.fifthdomain.com/dod/2019/04/30/is-there-such-a-concept-as-cyber-deterrence/">conventional wisdom</a>, it is possible to deter cyberattacks. Second, the strategy calls for coordinating activities in three layers to secure cyberspace. This won’t eliminate all bad behavior in cyberspace any more than traditional law enforcement has completely banished crime in the physical world. But it will improve how the U.S. government and the private sector respond to cyberthreats. </p>
<p>The first layer calls for the U.S. government to shape behavior in cyberspace through diplomacy and establishing new norms. Too many states quietly condone hacking to steal, spy and threaten their rivals. These attacks rely on illicit marketplaces for malware. The key is promoting responsible behavior in cyberspace and assigning specific expectations for the roles and responsibilities of governments and the private sector.</p>
<p>The second layer calls for the U.S. government to make cyberattacks less effective by promoting national resilience. This approach requires securing critical networks in collaboration with the private sector. It also requires being able to conclusively identify the perpetrators of malicious actions in cyberspace. And it requires increasing the security of the cyber ecosystem. Actions in this layer include working to create more transparency in cyber insurance markets and ensuring economic continuity in the event of a catastrophic cyber incident. </p>
<p>The third layer calls for the U.S. government to impose proportional costs to malicious actions in cyberspace. This requires the U.S., in collaboration with allies, to maintain the capability and credibility needed to retaliate against nations and organizations that target the U.S. in and through cyberspace. The means to retaliate include legal, financial, diplomatic and cyber powers that, applied in combination, assure compelling and unavoidable consequences for transgressors. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333752/original/file-20200508-49550-305kzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333752/original/file-20200508-49550-305kzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333752/original/file-20200508-49550-305kzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333752/original/file-20200508-49550-305kzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333752/original/file-20200508-49550-305kzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333752/original/file-20200508-49550-305kzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333752/original/file-20200508-49550-305kzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Personnel at Fort George G. Meade, headquarters of the United States Cyber Command.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flickr.com/photos/ftmeade/28008201637/">Fort George G. Meade Public Affairs Office/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<h2>Early action with diverse responses</h2>
<p>The U.S. Department of Defense “defend forward” policy, laid out in its <a href="https://media.defense.gov/2018/Sep/18/2002041658/-1/-1/1/CYBER_STRATEGY_SUMMARY_FINAL.PDF">2018 strategy</a>, calls for detecting and responding to threats as early as possible. Early action increases effectiveness and minimizes disruption. The commission report calls for this emphasis on early detection and action to be extended to the use of all government powers. It also calls for collaborating with an international coalition that lends strength and legitimacy when responding to cyber attacks. </p>
<p>The three components of this proposed strategy are defined as layers because they need to be applied in combination rather than as separate remedies. In this manner the strategy brings together a diverse array of private and public capabilities, resources and authorities. </p>
<p>The commission’s report includes 80 recommendations for implementing the strategy. For the recommendations that require changes in law, the commission drafted legislative language to assist Congress. The recommendations set the stage for a series of public hearings and outreach to the public. Implementing the strategy will involve changes in procedure, authority, law and ultimately in the behavior of cyberspace stakeholders. </p>
<p>While the commission has transitioned its role to one of advocacy for the report’s recommendations, the work of transforming perceived costs and benefits in cyberspace lies ahead. It will require the work of governments, the private sector and citizens. If the strategy is implemented successfully, nations that contemplate aggression in cyberspace will get the message: if you want to beat one of us, you’ll have to deal with all of us.</p>
<p>[<em>You need to understand the coronavirus pandemic, and we can help.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=upper-coronavirus-help">Read The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133610/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Jensen holds a dual appointment as a Professor at the Marine Corps University and as a Scholar-in-Residence at American University. He is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and serves as an officer in the U.S. Army Reserves. He served as the Senior Research Director for the U.S. Cyberspace Solarium Commission. The views expressed are his own.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Inglis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the murky world of cyber espionage and cyber warfare, effective deterrence has long been considered out of reach. A government report argues it’s time to change that.Benjamin Jensen, Professor of Strategic Studies, Marine Corps University; Scholar-in-Residence, American University, American University School of International ServiceChris Inglis, Distinguished Visiting Professor in Cyber Security Studies, United States Naval AcademyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1286092020-02-18T13:54:51Z2020-02-18T13:54:51ZA military perspective on climate change could bridge the gap between believers and doubters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311882/original/file-20200124-81395-18z14f8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6404%2C3984&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A soldier stands guard at the damaged entrance to Tyndall Air Force Base in Panama City, Florida, Oct. 11, 2018, after Hurricane Michael.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Tropical-Weather/925de2623b9f49778674638453ee8de7/24/0">AP Photo/David Goldman</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As experts warn that the world is <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">running out of time</a> to head off severe climate change, discussions of what the U.S. should do about it are split into opposing camps. The <a href="http://katharinehayhoe.com/wp2016/biography/">scientific-environmental</a> perspective says global warming will cause the planet severe harm without action to slow fossil fuel burning. Those who <a href="https://www.beforetheflood.com/explore/the-deniers/top-10-climate-deniers/">reject mainstream climate science</a> insist either that warming is not occurring or that it’s not clear human actions are driving it. </p>
<p>With these two extremes polarizing the American political arena, climate policy has come to a near standstill. But as I argue in my new book,“<a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781627792486">All Hell Breaking Loose: The Pentagon’s Perspective on Climate Change</a>,” the U.S. armed forces offer a third perspective that could help bridge the gap.</p>
<p>I’ve studied <a href="https://www.hampshire.edu/faculty/michael-klare">military and security issues</a> for decades. Although President Trump has <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51213003">called climate change a hoax</a> and worked to <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-slams-brakes-on-obamas-climate-plan-but-theres-still-a-long-road-ahead-75252">reverse the Obama administration’s climate initiatives</a>, senior U.S. military officers have long been aware of warming’s detrimental effects. </p>
<p>Military leaders believe climate change seriously threatens U.S. national security. They contend it is stirring up chaos and conflict abroad, endangering coastal bases and stressing soldiers and equipment, which undermines military readiness. But rather than debating the causes of climate change or assigning blame, they focus on how warming undermines security, and on practical steps to slow its advance and minimize damage.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314640/original/file-20200211-146686-1o4wkbg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314640/original/file-20200211-146686-1o4wkbg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314640/original/file-20200211-146686-1o4wkbg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314640/original/file-20200211-146686-1o4wkbg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314640/original/file-20200211-146686-1o4wkbg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314640/original/file-20200211-146686-1o4wkbg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314640/original/file-20200211-146686-1o4wkbg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314640/original/file-20200211-146686-1o4wkbg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Marines board the amphibious assault ship USS Iwo Jima to provide disaster relief and humanitarian aid to Haiti following Hurricane Matthew, Oct. 8, 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/N1WFnh">U.S. Navy/ Petty Officer 2nd Class Hunter S. Harwell</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Pentagon knows about climate impacts</h2>
<p>Senior Pentagon officials are familiar with the scientific literature on climate change and know about its expected impacts. Many also have served in climate-ravaged areas of the world, including North Africa, the Middle East and the Pacific Islands.</p>
<p>People in those regions have experienced prolonged and crippling <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-not-conflict-drove-many-syrian-refugees-to-lebanon-127681">droughts</a>, severe <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/searing-heat-made-could-make-countries-north-africa-along-persian-n899921">heat waves</a> and <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/2164523/its-official-typhoon-mangkhut-was-most-intense">catastrophic storms</a>. In many cases, these developments have been accompanied by humanitarian disasters, resource disputes, and armed conflicts – phenomena that impinge directly on the overseas operations of U.S. forces.</p>
<p>“Changing weather patterns, rising temperatures, and dramatic shifts in rainfall contribute to drought, famine, migration, and resource competition” in Africa, General Thomas D. Waldhauser, then commander of the U.S. Africa Command, <a href="https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Waldhauser_02-07-19.pdf">told the Senate Armed Services Committee</a> in February 2019. “As each group seeks land for its own purposes, violent conflict can ensue.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314911/original/file-20200212-61981-1fafk75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314911/original/file-20200212-61981-1fafk75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314911/original/file-20200212-61981-1fafk75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314911/original/file-20200212-61981-1fafk75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314911/original/file-20200212-61981-1fafk75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314911/original/file-20200212-61981-1fafk75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314911/original/file-20200212-61981-1fafk75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314911/original/file-20200212-61981-1fafk75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">FBI Director Christopher Wray; CIA Director Gina Haspel; Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats; and Defense Intelligence Agency director Gen. Robert Ashley testify before the Senate Intelligence Committee on worldwide threats, including climate change, Jan. 29, 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/director-christopher-wray-cia-director-gina-haspel-and-news-photo/1125948369?adppopup=true">Win McNamee/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Bases and troops at risk</h2>
<p>Military leaders are also contending with climate change impacts on bases, forces and equipment. Hurricanes Florence and Michael in 2018 and heavy inland flooding in the spring of 2019 caused an <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18122018/tyndall-military-hurricane-cost-2018-year-review-billion-dollar-disasters-wildfire-extreme-weather-drought-michael-florence">estimated US$10 billion</a> in damage to <a href="https://www.lejeune.marines.mil/">Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune in North Carolina</a>, <a href="https://www.tyndall.af.mil/">Tyndall Air Force Base in Florida</a> and <a href="https://www.offutt.af.mil/">Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska</a>. Scientists widely agree that climate change is making storms like these <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/19/us/climate-change-hurricane-florence-wxc/index.html">larger, more intense and longer-lasting</a>.</p>
<p>Threats to other bases – particularly those located along U.S. coastlines, such as the giant <a href="https://www.cnic.navy.mil/regions/cnrma/installations/ns_norfolk.html">naval station at Norfolk, Virginia</a> – are bound to grow as sea levels rise and major storms occur more frequently.</p>
<p>Rising temperatures generate other challenges. In Alaska, many facilities are <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/02/25/697615977/how-climate-change-is-affecting-alaskas-military-radar-stations">at risk of collapse or damage</a> as the permafrost on which they sit begins to thaw. In California, <a href="https://apnews.com/f3941e09d9ae4bb1b4769e79229816ca/2nd-wildfire-breaks-out-on-California-military-base">wildfires burn on or near key bases</a>. Extreme heat also poses a <a href="https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2019/11/12/how-rising-temps-could-cause-even-more-heat-casualties-at-military-bases/">health risk to soldiers</a>, who must often carry heavy loads during sunlit hours, and to the safe operation of helicopters and other mechanical equipment.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/hQ4jzz2wHHM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">NBC News reports in March 2019 on extensive damage to Camp Lejeune, six months after Hurricane Florence.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>“Climate change is an urgent and growing threat to our national security, contributing to increased natural disasters, refugee flows, and conflicts over basic resources,” the Defense Department told Congress in a <a href="https://archive.defense.gov/pubs/150724-congressional-report-on-national-implications-of-climate-change.pdf">2015 report</a>. “These impacts are already occurring, and the scope, scale, and intensity of these impacts are projected to increase over time.”</p>
<h2>Practical steps to adapt</h2>
<p>Recognizing these dangers, the armed forces are acting to reduce its vulnerability. They have built seawalls at Langley Air Force Base, adjacent to Norfolk Naval Station, and are relocating sensitive electronic equipment at coastal bases from ground level to upper stories or higher elevations. </p>
<p>The Defense Department also is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-military-green-energy-insight/u-s-military-marches-forward-on-green-energy-despite-trump-idUSKBN1683BL">investing in renewable energy</a>, including solar power and biofuels. By the end of 2020, the armed forces expect to generate 18% of on-base electricity from renewables, up from 9.6% in 2010. They plan to <a href="https://www.denix.osd.mil/sustainability/dod-sspp/unassigned/department-of-defense-strategic-sustainability-performance-plan-fy-2016/">increase that share substantially in the years ahead</a>. </p>
<p>Military planning for climate change does not dwell on threats to habitats and species. It emphasizes the social strife, state collapse and armed violence that are likely to occur in countries already suffering from scarce resources and ethnic friction. </p>
<p>As this outlook suggests, human communities face far greater risks from climate change in the short term than scientists’ habitat loss projections into 2100 and beyond may suggest. <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-will-displace-millions-in-coming-decades-nations-should-prepare-now-to-help-them-89274">Vulnerable societies are crumbling</a> under the pressure of extreme climate effects, and the scale of chaos and conflict is certain to grow as global temperatures rise. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1206967376798982151"}"></div></p>
<h2>The armed forces as climate mediators</h2>
<p>The military’s approach to climate change could bridge the divide between believers and doubters. People who assert that protecting endangered habitats and species is trivial next to health and economic problems, and that society has time to tackle whatever threats may develop, might be persuaded to take action when they hear from respected generals and admirals that the nation’s security is at stake.</p>
<p>This is already happening in some communities, such as Norfolk, Virginia, where base commanders and local officials have found common ground in addressing the area’s extreme vulnerability to <a href="https://www.military.com/daily-news/2019/02/08/dod-could-start-funding-base-infrastructure-fixes-sea-level-rise.html">sea level rise and hurricane-induced flooding</a>. </p>
<p>Similarly, congressional Republicans – many of whom have long opposed addressing climate change – are starting to issue <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/energy/how-house-republicans-won-over-conservatives-to-gain-consensus-on-a-climate-agenda">plans to curb it</a>. Framing climate policy in national security terms might help win conservative support. </p>
<p>The armed forces continue to plan for conventional conflicts abroad, while recognizing that climate change will affect their ability to perform their combat duties. They must, like it or not, take steps to overcome warming’s damaging impacts. In my view, it’s a message all Americans need to heed. </p>
<p>[ <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=thanksforreading">Thanks for reading! We can send you The Conversation’s stories every day in an informative email. Sign up today.</a></em> ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128609/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Klare receives funding from the Samuel Rubin Foundation. Michael is affiliated with the Arms Control Association as an unpaid visiting fellow.</span></em></p>US military leaders have to plan for operations all over the world, so they can’t afford to ignore climate change or debate its causes.Michael Klare, Professor Emeritus and Director, Five College Program in Peace and World Security Studies, Hampshire CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/942362018-04-10T10:38:48Z2018-04-10T10:38:48ZTrump national security staff merry-go-round reflects decades of policy competition and conflict<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213613/original/file-20180406-129717-6br47c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Donald Trump with now-former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, right, and former National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP /Andrew Harnik</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Who is in charge of the national security policy of the United States?</p>
<p>That question is reasonable, given the turmoil in the Trump administration’s national security team. That core team is made up of the national security adviser, the National Security Council and the secretaries of Defense and State – and many of those team members <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/22/us/politics/hr-mcmaster-trump-bolton.html">have been ousted and replaced over the last year</a>. </p>
<p>I am a <a href="http://www.american.edu/sis/faculty/gadams.cfm">scholar</a> who has both worked in and studied U.S. national security. And while the Department of Defense is largely in charge of the country’s national security policy for now, that could change, as it has many times since the middle of the last century. In fact, ever since the National Security Council and Department of Defense were created in 1947, the question of who runs U.S. national security policy has been contested and marked by conflict.</p>
<h2>Simpler times</h2>
<p>The current – and fluid – structure of the president’s national security team has its roots in challenges that emerged during and after World War II.</p>
<p>Prior to the war, the secretary of state was clearly in charge of U.S. foreign policy. The U.S. had two military departments – War (Army) and Navy (including the Marines). The overseas presence of <a href="http://www.politifact.com/texas/statements/2014/jun/13/ken-paxton/us-army-was-smaller-army-portugal-world-war-ii/">the U.S. military was minimal</a>. The White House was only intermittently engaged in foreign policy and had little capacity to plan or coordinate these departments.</p>
<p>The war had revealed flaws in military coordination and civilian control. And after the war, new global U.S. responsibilities for recovery and security, particularly the Cold War with the Soviet Union, required continuous presidential and <a href="https://www.trumanlibrary.org/publicpapers/index.php?pid=1066">White House engagement and interagency coordination</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.dni.gov/index.php/ic-legal-reference-book/national-security-act-of-1947">The National Security Act of 1947</a> changed everything. It created the <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Running-World-National-Security-Architects/dp/1586484230">National Security Council</a>, or NSC, which was formed to answer the one problem of White House coordination. </p>
<p>The membership of the NSC was intentionally kept small. Its members were the president, vice president and the secretaries of State and Defense, assisted by a presidential special assistant and a small staff. To avoid interagency conflict and to keep the NSC flexible, its structure and responsibilities were left up to the president.</p>
<h2>President takes charge</h2>
<p>Along with the establishment of the NSC as a central player in foreign policy, the post-war period saw the emergence of the president as a world leader and spokesperson, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Imperial-Presidency-Jr-Arthur-Schlesinger/dp/0618420010">the principal foreign policy decider</a> in virtually all administrations. </p>
<p>Some presidents entered office with significant foreign policy and national security experience - Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Nixon and and George H. W. Bush. But a surprisingly large number have had to learn on the job, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Truman-David-McCullough/dp/0671869205/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1523040427&sr=8-1&keywords=truman+by+mccullough">including the first Cold War president, Harry Truman</a>, who never graduated from college. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213609/original/file-20180406-129730-1yqdgsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213609/original/file-20180406-129730-1yqdgsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213609/original/file-20180406-129730-1yqdgsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213609/original/file-20180406-129730-1yqdgsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213609/original/file-20180406-129730-1yqdgsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213609/original/file-20180406-129730-1yqdgsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213609/original/file-20180406-129730-1yqdgsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Harry Truman meets with members of the National Security Council and other advisers, Jan. 24, 1952, for review of the defense situation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP/Henry Griffin</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Each president, in his unique way, has relied on White House staff and the departments for information, policy views, deliberations and advice. Each president also had a unique view of what he wanted in terms of the <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/fateful-decisions-9780195159660?cc=us&lang=en&">NSC’s structure and role</a>. </p>
<p>This unpredictability has allowed the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/">NSC and particularly its staff</a> to adapt to changing administrations and priorities. But it also opened the door to uncertainty about its relationship with the departments of Defense and State. </p>
<p>Some presidents wanted organized, <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/1956-04-01/development-national-security-council">systematic NSC planning and coordination</a>. Eisenhower <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL30840.pdf">created</a> a formal planning board and an operations coordinating board to develop policy options and oversee policy implementation. Other presidents have preferred to use an informal and changing group of <a href="http://whitehousetransitionproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/WHTP2017-24-National-Security-Advisor.pdf">advisers</a> with very little staff structure. Some have had national security advisers that were close partners, while others have been <a href="https://www.economist.com/blogs/lexington/2010/10/james_jones_resigns">less intimately connected</a>.</p>
<p>The personality of the national security adviser has also mattered greatly. Some have subordinated themselves and their view and interpreted their job as being an <a href="http://oaktrust.library.tamu.edu/handle/1969.1/158834">honest broker</a> between the departments and the president, gathering views and neutrally setting out options for the president. </p>
<p>The most classic example of that approach is Brent Scowcroft, national security adviser for George Bush, who saw his job as clarifying agency options, but studiously avoided intruding with his own views. <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Running-World-National-Security-Architects/dp/1586484230">Some saw</a> Scowcroft as the exemplary adviser: “Brent’s concept of the national security advisor…was to never let us forget that the last name of the NSC is ‘staff,’” as one senior Bush official put it. Others, such as <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1982/05/kissinger-and-nixon-in-the-white-house/308778/">Henry Kissinger</a>, who was Nixon’s national security adviser, have had dominant personalities and clear policy views, which they discussed directly with the president. </p>
<h2><strong>Imbalance in influence</strong></h2>
<p>The other principal players in the foreign policy arena are the departments of Defense and State.</p>
<p>As I have <a href="http://press.georgetown.edu/book/georgetown/mission-creep">documented</a>, the influence of Defense has grown and it has <a href="https://www.stimson.org/content/new-way-forward-rebalancing-security-assistance-programs-and-authorities">taken on</a> greater and broader responsibility for U.S. global engagement. The agency has the discipline and resources to do continuous contingency planning and policy analysis, which are essential tools for conducting foreign policy.</p>
<p>With its <a href="https://www.apnews.com/c87ce743d4a8495f856507e593243775">$700 billion annual budget</a>, Defense employs 1.4 million in uniform and nearly 700,000 civil servants. There is a military command for every major geographic region in the world. More than 200,000 military personnel are <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/08/22/u-s-active-duty-military-presence-overseas-is-at-its-smallest-in-decades/">deployed</a> to more than 700 overseas installations. </p>
<p>By contrast, State’s budget is <a href="https://www.state.gov/documents/organization/277155.pdf">roughly $50 billion</a>. Around <a href="https://careers.state.gov/learn/what-we-do/mission/">70,000 people work</a> for the State Department, including a mere 13,000 foreign service officers and 11,000 civil servants. Most of this staff works in 250 embassies and consulates overseas, and roughly 65 percent are non-Americans in embassy support positions. There are no diplomatic regional commands and the State Department has few resources for, or tradition of, doing contingency planning or policy analysis.</p>
<p>This “imbalance” in the toolkit of American statecraft may have been inevitable, given the military focus of the Cold War confrontation, Defense’s large global presence and regional commanders and the sustained systematic interaction between the U.S. military and the armed forces <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Buying-National-Security-America-Global/dp/0415954401">of other countries</a>.</p>
<h2>Tradition of tension</h2>
<p>Since the 1947 Act, the State and Defense departments have had uneasy relationships with the <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/19991025.pdf">national security adviser</a> and the NSC staff. </p>
<p>Kissinger, for example, generally <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/03/AR2007010301405.html">ignored Secretary of State William Rogers</a>, keeping him in the dark about major policies such as the opening to China. </p>
<p>Cyrus Vance resigned as secretary of state to Jimmy Carter in large part because the national security adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski, <a href="https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1350&dat=19800509&id=dR1PAAAAIBAJ&sjid=jwIEAAAAIBAJ&pg=5707,8147779">shut him out of major decisions</a>.<br>
Clinton’s National Security Adviser Sandy Berger sought to ease this tension by <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/1998/mar/01/news/mn-24421">holding a weekly luncheon</a> with Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and Secretary of Defense William Cohen. </p>
<p>From my perch at the time as the national security budget official at the Office of Management and Budget, <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/1998/mar/01/news/mn-24421">these “ABC” lunches</a> appeared to “pre-cook” NSC decisions ahead of larger, formal meetings, which seemed pro forma, occasionally frustrating other participants in the process. Under President Obama, the Department of Defense frequently <a href="https://www.militarytimes.com/news/2016/11/10/inside-the-pentagon-early-fears-trump-will-micromanage-the-generals-more-than-obama-did/">complained</a> that the National Security Council micromanaged Pentagon decisions. </p>
<h2>Past is prologue</h2>
<p>The relationship between these two departments, Defense and State, also has a complex history. 1947 saw the creation of the new NSC, with an adviser and staff, and a unified Pentagon, both of which diminished the policy supremacy of the secretary of state. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213618/original/file-20180406-5587-ecikab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213618/original/file-20180406-5587-ecikab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213618/original/file-20180406-5587-ecikab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213618/original/file-20180406-5587-ecikab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213618/original/file-20180406-5587-ecikab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=760&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213618/original/file-20180406-5587-ecikab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=760&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213618/original/file-20180406-5587-ecikab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=760&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Secretary of State Colin Powell, left, talks with Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, right, in the Oval Office during 2004.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP /Pablo Martinez Monsivais</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The imbalance was noticeable in the George W. Bush administration, when Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld systematically <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A50926-2004Nov15.html">sidelined</a> Secretary of State Colin Powell. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, according to insiders, was so determined to avoid such tensions that she was willing to <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/23/AR2009122302553.html">share</a> State Department authority over State Department programs that foster cooperation with the security forces of other countries (“security assistance and cooperation”). State’s weaknesses were a source of concern to then Secretary of Defense Robert Gates (Bush 43 and Obama), who voiced his <a href="http://archive.defense.gov/Speeches/Speech.aspx?SpeechID=1262">worries</a> publicly. </p>
<p>The imbalance has grown in the past year, due in part to decisions <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/07/31/how-the-trump-administration-broke-the-state-department/">made</a> by Trump’s first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson. Tillerson sought to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/17/magazine/rex-tillerson-and-the-unraveling-of-the-state-department.html">cut State’s budget</a> by 30 percent, <a href="http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article199909959.html">shrink the Foreign Service</a> by one-third, and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/diplomats-in-limbo-at-a-state-department-where-most-leadership-is-temporary/2017/06/01/8845d9c4-4619-11e7-a196-a1bb629f64cb_story.html?utm_term=.7f71a8675541">delay the appointment of senior policy officials</a> (many of the senior positions remain without appointees well into 2018).</p>
<p>While Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/26/magazine/can-jim-mattis-hold-the-line-in-trumps-war-cabinet.html">urged support</a> for State, Defense is clearly the more influential department in setting and implementing national security policy priorities in the Trump administration. As the State Department loses financial and personnel resources, this imbalance is likely to grow.</p>
<p>The interactions among the major national security agencies may now be more explosive and chaotic than in the past, but they mirror trends already underway for some decades in the management of U.S. national security policy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94236/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gordon Adams is affiliated with the Stimson Center (Distinguished Fellow) and American University (Emeritus Faculty). </span></em></p>John Bolton just started his job as National Security Adviser to President Trump. He’s the latest in a ever-changing cast of staffers, raising the question: Who’s in charge of national security?Gordon Adams, Professor Emeritus, American University School of International ServiceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/831332018-01-09T11:20:50Z2018-01-09T11:20:50ZFit to serve: Data on transgender military service<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199496/original/file-20171215-17842-em08j9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Transgender U.S. Army captain Jennifer Sims lifts her uniform.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Matthias Schrader</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As of Jan. 1, transgender individuals are allowed to openly enlist and continue serving in the U.S. military without fear of being discharged. </p>
<p>President Donald Trump issued a ban on transgender military service in August 2017. It was <a href="https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4163521/10-30-17-Doe-v-Trump-Order.pdf">struck down</a> by U.S. District Court Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly last fall. In December, the <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2017-12-12/pentagon-to-allow-transgender-people-to-enlist-in-military">Pentagon announced</a> it would allow transgender people to enlist in 2018.</p>
<p>In a strongly worded 76-page <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/30/560847850/federal-judge-blocks-trumps-ban-on-transgender-service-members">opinion</a>, Kollar-Kotelly wrote: “There is absolutely no support for the claim that the ongoing service of transgender people would have any negative effects on the military.”</p>
<p>And she’s right. Since 2014, we have been working with transgender service members and veterans to better understand their experiences. It is part of a large and growing body of scientific research President Trump, and conservatives more broadly, have ignored.</p>
<h2>Medical rationale</h2>
<p>In the United States, transgender individuals were officially barred from serving in the armed forces starting in the 1960s. The early prohibition was based on a <a href="http://www.trans-health.com/2005/rethinking-gid-terminology-dsm/">now-outdated psychiatric classification</a>. Until 2013, the American Psychiatric Association classified transgender people as having “gender identity disorder.” This disqualified them for military service, along with anyone else who exhibited a mental disorder.</p>
<p>Since the 1980s, the U.S. armed forces <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/IN10264.pdf">barred service</a> of any person with a “current or history of psychosexual conditions including but not limited to exhibitionism, transsexualism, transvestism, voyeurism, and other paraphilia.” However, the view that transgender people have a pathological condition conflates transgender identity with mental illness and distress. It assumes that all transgender people experience <a href="https://www.psychiatry.org/patients-families/gender-dysphoria/what-is-gender-dysphoria">gender dysphoria</a>. Gender dysphoria relates to distress caused when an individual’s assigned sex at birth is incongruent with their current gender identity or expression. Not all transgender people experience it.</p>
<p>In 2015, the American Medical Association adopted a <a href="https://www.ama-assn.org/content/ama-adopts-new-policies-improve-health-nation-first-day-voting-annual-meeting">formal policy</a> stating that there is no medical rationale for excluding transgender people from openly serving in the military.</p>
<h2>Serving under a ban</h2>
<p>Transgender people have long served in the armed forces. The Williams Institute, a think tank at the University of California in Los Angeles, <a href="https://williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/Transgender-Military-Service-May-2014.pdf">estimates</a> that roughly 134,000 transgender Americans hold veteran status. </p>
<p>About 15,000 transgender people are currently serving across all branches of the U.S. armed forces, including the National Guard and Reserve forces. The vast majority have served under the transgender ban. </p>
<p>In our research, <a href="http://tsq.dukejournals.org/content/2/4/584.abstract">we have found</a> that transgender service members have had to conceal their identities. In fact, among <a href="http://online.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/trgh.2015.0002">transgender service members surveyed</a> under the transgender military ban, only 16.2 percent reported being “out” as transgender to friends within their military unit. Only 5.6 percent were out to their commanding officer. </p>
<p>This was in stark contrast to the personal lives of service members where the majority of those surveyed reported being out to immediate family members (72.2 percent) and nonmilitary friends (69.4 percent). This has limited their access to support services and health care, and made it difficult to gain institutional recognition.</p>
<p>Our findings also suggest that transgender individuals enlist for many of the same reasons as cisgender men and women, those whose assigned sex at birth corresponds with their gender identity. Transgender people are motivated by educational goals, career aspirations, travel, family history, patriotism and stability. Transgender service members <a href="http://online.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/trgh.2015.0002">also report</a> few mental or physical health issues that would limit them from meeting fitness criteria.</p>
<p>Research conducted by the nonprofit <a href="https://www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri.html">RAND National Defense Research Institute</a> has found similar evidence. RAND was commissioned by the government to conduct a wide-ranging external study to assess the impact of transgender service.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1530.html">RAND reported</a> that the Departments of Defense Homeland Security would incur only small increases in annual health care cost, estimated between US$2.4 million to $8.4 million, representing only .04 to .13 percent of the budget. That is in direct contrast to President Trump’s justification for the ban, as he cited <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cost-of-medical-care-for-transgender-service-members-would-be-minimal-studies-show/">“tremendous medical costs</a>.” Further, the report observed that transgender service has minimal impact on unit readiness and cohesion. And, it recommended that military fitness policies align with contemporary medical standards.</p>
<h2>Impact of a military ban</h2>
<p>President Trump’s memorandum referenced inaccurate information. Further, the administration’s effort undermines several rigorous scientific studies and peer-reviewed publications, the expert opinions of <a href="http://archive.palmcenter.org/files/Transgender%20Military%20Service%20Report.pdf">military leaders and officers</a>, and the medical recommendations of our nation’s leading professional organizations. </p>
<p>Most concerning, however, is that the current commander-in-chief discredits the service and sacrifices of tens of thousands of transgender veterans and service members. They have served and will continue to proudly serve our country despite persistent injustice and inequality.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83133/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brandon Hill received funding from The Palm Center. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Barnett received funding from The Palm Center. </span></em></p>Here’s the research that explains why President Donald Trump’s ban on transgender military service was so easily struck down.Brandon Hill, Executive Director of the Center for Interdisciplinary Inquiry and Innovation in Sexual and Reproductive Health, University of ChicagoJoshua Trey Barnett, Professor of Rhetoric, University of Minnesota DuluthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/833972017-11-08T22:08:57Z2017-11-08T22:08:57ZThe emotional challenges of student veterans on campus<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193848/original/file-20171108-14199-yrnfab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">For veterans going back to school, student life can involve many stresses.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/departmentofed/9599954147/">US Department of Education</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>This Veterans Day, Americans will honor the heroism and sacrifice of the nearly <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/data-mine/2014/11/10/veterans-day-data-boot-camp">22 million men and women</a> who have served in the U.S. military. Among them will be student veterans. Since 2009, nearly one million veterans have benefited from the <a href="https://www.va.gov/opa/issues/post_911_gibill.asp">Post-9/11 GI Bill</a>, which has allowed them to pay for educational expenses such as tuition, textbooks and housing. </p>
<p>There is no doubt this federal policy does exactly what it was designed to do – facilitate access to higher education and provide training benefits. This bill offers substantial financial assistance, but as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1353/cpr.2016.0042">my research</a> shows, an important benefit is missing: What the Post-9/11 GI Bill does not prepare veterans for is the emotional and psychological stress linked to transitioning from military to student life. </p>
<h2>The challenges of a new role</h2>
<p>When servicemen and servicewomen leave the military and enter higher education, they exit one institution, with its set of values, norms and expectations – “the military” – and enter into a new one – “the university.” Social scientists refer to this as <a href="http://nsuworks.nova.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2094&context=tqr">“role exit.”</a></p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193849/original/file-20171108-14202-3cj8ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193849/original/file-20171108-14202-3cj8ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=685&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193849/original/file-20171108-14202-3cj8ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=685&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193849/original/file-20171108-14202-3cj8ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=685&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193849/original/file-20171108-14202-3cj8ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=861&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193849/original/file-20171108-14202-3cj8ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=861&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193849/original/file-20171108-14202-3cj8ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=861&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/557038141?src=FTcUm54ZmVuMHVs-6a2F_g-1-37https%3A%2F%2Fwww.shutterstock.com%2Fimage-photo%2Fveteran-soldier-military-college-benefits-cash-291245894%3Fsrc%3DFTcUm54ZmVuMHVs-6a2F_g-1-42&size=small_jpg">Africa Studio/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
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<p>These servicemen and women replace their physical training uniforms with jeans and sweatshirts boasting the university’s logo. They replace their rank – as corporal, for instance – with their year in college, such as freshman. In other words, they say goodbye to the world they know, including their comrades, and step foot on their college or university campus alone. In this transition, their identity shifts from warrior to student. </p>
<p>Through <a href="http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ1144620.pdf;%20https://muse.jhu.edu/article/635728">my work</a> on projects funded by the <a href="http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/1001607.pdf">Department of Defense</a> and <a href="https://www.ruralhealth.va.gov/providers/funding.asp">VA Office of Rural Health</a>, I have closely examined this transition. And I can tell you it is anything but easy. </p>
<h2>Campus and classroom experiences</h2>
<p>In my conversations with student veterans, I found them struggling with their new identity. Many realize they are no longer a service member, but they do not, at the same time, feel like a student. As one student veteran told me, he had a “disjointed” identity. He was trying to figure out who he was in his new identity. </p>
<p>In the military, service members felt a sense of brotherhood, became leaders and found a life of meaning and purpose. In higher education, however, many student veterans experience isolation rather than belonging. Even when they find success, it is individual rather than team-based. Some find little to no life meaning. As one veteran said,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“You go from being somewhat important in the military, to having a purpose every day, to go home and, ‘Well there goes the wife to work.‘ I should be going to work too but I’m gonna sit here and do school work.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>As they struggle to balance the demands of marriage, parenthood and school, many live from paycheck to paycheck. Some feel, as one veteran so clearly articulated to me, <a href="http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ1144620.pdf">“just a drain on society.”</a></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193851/original/file-20171108-14193-vqasl8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193851/original/file-20171108-14193-vqasl8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193851/original/file-20171108-14193-vqasl8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193851/original/file-20171108-14193-vqasl8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193851/original/file-20171108-14193-vqasl8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193851/original/file-20171108-14193-vqasl8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193851/original/file-20171108-14193-vqasl8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Common classroom experiences could trigger memories of combat in students.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/velkr0/3472576304">velkr0</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Add to this the fact that many returning student veterans have witnessed, been subjected to and experienced combat violence. Students told me how their experience of violence <a href="https://ucrtoday.ucr.edu/45481">follows them, shadowlike,</a> on campus and in classrooms. Sounds that might be familiar or normal to other students can evoke vivid memories of combat for student veterans. </p>
<p>One veteran, for example, shared with me that the sound of flip flops in a corridor triggered memories of fire fights in Iraq. Another student said classroom discussion brought up combat memories. Instead of focusing on class material, he found himself <a href="http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ1144620.pdf">“zoned off in deep thought”</a> about flashbacks from the past. </p>
<h2>Afraid of reaching out</h2>
<p>The campus community can do much to support student veterans. Indeed, there are tools to minimize these adverse campus and classroom experiences and help veterans achieve academic success.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.mentalhealth.va.gov/studentveteran/">VA Campus Toolkit</a>, for example, offers tips on how higher administration can address invisible wounds like depression, anxiety and PTSD. Faculty can alert students to unsettling images, text or discussions. As my <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/635728">research found</a>, veteran-led services such as <a href="http://m-span.org/pave/">Peer Advisors for Veterans</a> connect
veterans to needed resources and offer veterans a sense of community. Such programs have great potential to increase retention rates and academic success.</p>
<p>But the issue is that some veterans may be afraid to disclose their veteran identity to professors or classmates because they fear the <a href="https://journals.colostate.edu/jvs/article/view/132">stigma</a> they may experience as a result of being a former member of the military. There is a popular perception that veterans returning from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan pose a <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/luis-carlos-montalvan/veteran-stigma-what-does_b_211530.html">security risk</a> to others. My colleagues and I have found student veterans perceive <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26598288">public stigma</a> as a significant barrier to accessing mental health care services. </p>
<h2>How can they find support?</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193850/original/file-20171108-14215-1g2zedv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193850/original/file-20171108-14215-1g2zedv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193850/original/file-20171108-14215-1g2zedv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193850/original/file-20171108-14215-1g2zedv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193850/original/file-20171108-14215-1g2zedv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193850/original/file-20171108-14215-1g2zedv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193850/original/file-20171108-14215-1g2zedv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Airmen from the Nellis Airman Leadership School march during the Las Vegas Veterans Day Parade.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.acc.af.mil/News/Photos/igphoto/2000308392/mediaid/155533/">U.S. Air Force photo/Tech. Sgt. Michael R. Holzworth</a></span>
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<p>Faculty, staff and students might want to remember that there is a very strong likelihood that one of the students in their classes is a veteran. And as Americans come together to honor veterans’ military service and their valor in defending our nation, let us also acknowledge the commitment of these men and women to higher education.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83397/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ann Cheney collaborates with the Greater Los Angeles VA. </span></em></p>Since 2009, nearly one million veterans have benefited from the Post-9/11 GI Bill, which helps them pay for tuition and other expenses. A scholar explains how it’s a hard transition.Ann M. Cheney, Assistant Professor, Center for Healthy Communities, University of California, RiversideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/805872017-07-26T09:16:37Z2017-07-26T09:16:37ZWashington DC’s role behind the scenes in Hollywood goes deeper than you think<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178981/original/file-20170720-23995-1io7abe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hollywood insider.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/washington-dc-skyline-view-lincoln-memorial-114102976?src=jqbCyM4QkYr5R1NtmWtoWw-1-43">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The US government and Hollywood have always been close. Washington DC has long been a source of intriguing plots for filmmakers and LA has been a generous provider of glamour and glitz to the political class.</p>
<p>But just how dependant are these two centres of American influence? Scrutiny of previously hidden documents reveals that the answer is: very. </p>
<p>We <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/National-Security-Cinema-Government-Hollywood/dp/1548084980/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1500035296&sr=8-1&keywords=national+security+cinema">can now show</a> that the relationship between US national security and Hollywood is much deeper and more political than anyone has ever acknowledged. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178400/original/file-20170717-6046-6io9ig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178400/original/file-20170717-6046-6io9ig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178400/original/file-20170717-6046-6io9ig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178400/original/file-20170717-6046-6io9ig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178400/original/file-20170717-6046-6io9ig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178400/original/file-20170717-6046-6io9ig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178400/original/file-20170717-6046-6io9ig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Smoke and mirrors.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/retro-film-production-accessories-still-life-374366155?src=Qyy-h0mtT9LwBLAMMd8uWQ-1-20">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>It is a matter of public record that the Pentagon has had an Entertainment Liaison Office since 1948. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) established a similar position in 1996. Although it was known that they sometimes request script changes in exchange for advice, permission to use locations, and equipment like aircraft carriers, each appeared to have passive, and largely apolitical roles. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.spyculture.com">Files we obtained</a>, mainly through the US Freedom of Information Act, show that between 1911 and 2017, more than 800 feature films received support from the US government’s Department of Defence (DoD), a significantly higher figure than <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Stars-Stripes-Screen-Comprehensive-Portrayals/dp/0810854120">previous estimates indicate</a>. These included blockbuster franchises like <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0418279/">Transformers</a>, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0371746/?ref_=nv_sr_1">Iron Man</a>, and <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0438488/?ref_=nv_sr_1">The Terminator</a>.</p>
<p>On television, we found over 1,100 titles received Pentagon backing – 900 of them since 2005, from <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0481522/?ref_=nv_sr_2">Flight 93</a> to <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1068912/?ref_=nv_sr_1">Ice Road Truckers</a> to <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0859592/?ref_=nv_sr_1">Army Wives</a>. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7lxDREJ4vTo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>When we include individual episodes for long running shows like <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0285331/?ref_=nv_sr_1">24</a>, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1796960/?ref_=nv_sr_1">Homeland</a>, and <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0364845/?ref_=nv_sr_1">NCIS</a>, as well as the influence of other major organisations like the FBI and White House, we can establish unequivocally for the first time that the national security state has supported thousands of hours of entertainment. </p>
<p>For its part, the CIA has assisted in 60 film and television shows since its formation in 1947. This is a much lower figure than the DoD’s but its role has nonetheless been significant.</p>
<p>The CIA put considerable effort into dissuading representations of its very existence throughout the 1940s and 1950s. This meant it was entirely absent from cinematic and televisual culture until a fleeting image of a partially obscured plaque in Alfred Hitchcock’s <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0053125/?ref_=nv_sr_1">North By Northwest</a> in 1959, as historian Simon Willmetts <a href="http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/67462/1/Review_In_Secrecys_Shadow.pdf">revealed last year</a>.</p>
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<p>The CIA soon endured an erosion of public support, while Hollywood cast the agency as villain in paranoid pictures like <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0073802/?ref_=nv_sr_3">Three Days of the Condor</a> and <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0071970/?ref_=nv_sr_1">The Parallax View</a> in the 1970s and into the 1980s. </p>
<p>When the CIA established an entertainment liaison office in 1996, it made up for lost time, most emphatically on the Al Pacino film <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0292506/?ref_=nv_sr_2">The Recruit</a> and the Osama bin Laden assassination movie <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1790885/?ref_=nv_sr_2">Zero Dark Thirty</a>. Leaked private memos <a href="https://utpress.utexas.edu/books/jenkins-cia-in-hollywood">published by our colleague Tricia Jenkins</a> in 2016, and other memos published in 2013 by the mainstream media, indicate that each of these productions were heavily influenced by government officials. Both heightened or inflated real-world threats and dampened down government malfeasance. </p>
<p>One of the most surprising alterations, though, we found in an unpublished interview regarding the comedy <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0212338/?ref_=nv_sr_3">Meet the Parents</a>. The CIA admitted that it had asked Robert De Niro’s character not possess an intimidating array of agency torture manuals. </p>
<p>Nor should we see the clandestine services as simply passive, naive or ineffectual during the counterculture years or its aftermath. They were still able to derail a Marlon Brando picture about the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Iran-Contra-Affair">Iran-Contra scandal</a> (in which the US illegally sold arms to Iran) by establishing a front company run by Colonel Oliver North to <a href="https://shadowproof.com/2016/06/30/watch-nicholas-shou-discusses-spooked/">outbid Brando for the rights</a>, journalist Nicholas Shou recently claimed.</p>
<h2>The (CIA) director’s cut</h2>
<p>The national security state has a profound, sometimes petty, impact on what Hollywood conveys politically. On <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0286716/?ref_=nv_sr_2">Hulk</a>, the DoD requested “pretty radical” script alterations, according to its script notes we obtained through Freedom of Information. These included disassociating the military from the gruesome laboratories that created “a monster” and changing the codename of the operation to capture the Hulk from “Ranch Hand” to “Angry Man”. Ranch Hand had been the name of a real chemical warfare programme during the Vietnam war. </p>
<p>In making the alien movie <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0118884/?ref_=nv_sr_1">Contact</a>, the Pentagon “negotiated civilianisation of almost all military parts”, according to the database we acquired. It removed a scene in the original script where the military worries that an alien civilisation will destroy Earth with a “doomsday machine”, a view dismissed by Jodie Foster’s character as “paranoia right out of the Cold War”. </p>
<p>The role of the national security state in shaping screen entertainment has been underestimated and its examination long concentrated in <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10509208.2015.1086614?journalCode=gqrf20">remarkably few hands</a>. The trickle of recent books have pushed back but only fractionally and tentatively. An earlier breakthrough occurred at the turn of the century when <a href="https://www.thenewpress.com/books/cultural-cold-war">historians identified</a> successful attempts in the 1950s by a senior individual at the Paramount film studio to promote narratives favourable to a CIA contact known only as “Owen”. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178420/original/file-20170717-23045-1rcc4np.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178420/original/file-20170717-23045-1rcc4np.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178420/original/file-20170717-23045-1rcc4np.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178420/original/file-20170717-23045-1rcc4np.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178420/original/file-20170717-23045-1rcc4np.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178420/original/file-20170717-23045-1rcc4np.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178420/original/file-20170717-23045-1rcc4np.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A low profile.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/chiangmai-thailand-september-1-2015photo-cia-312342929?src=SKRV4Zpl0bOr_99mSGQSaw-1-1">Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>The new FOI documents give a much better sense of the sheer scale of state activities in the entertainment industry, which we present alongside <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/National-Security-Cinema-Government-Hollywood/dp/1548084980/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1500937498&sr=8-1&keywords=matthew+alford">dozens of fresh cases studies</a>. But we still do not know the specific impact of the government on a substantial portion of films and shows. The American Navy’s <a href="http://www.spyculture.com/docs/US/USMC-email-90-boxes.pdf">Marine Corps alone admitted to us</a> that there are 90 boxes of relevant material in its archive. The government has seemed especially careful to avoid writing down details of actual changes made to scripts in the 21st century.</p>
<p>State officials have described Washington DC and Hollywood as being <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/1996-09-06/local/me-41045_1_political-consultants">“sprung from the same DNA”</a> and the capital as being <a href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/reliable-source/2010/12/who_says_washington_is_hollywo.html">“Hollywood for ugly people”</a>. That ugly DNA has embedded far and wide. It seems the two cities on opposite sides of the United States are closer than we ever thought.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80587/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Alford does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Department of Defence and the CIA have big seats in the editing suite.Matthew Alford, Teaching Fellow, Propaganda Theory, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/655422016-10-07T20:29:00Z2016-10-07T20:29:00ZFighting another war: How many military personnel and veterans will have PTSD in 2025?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/140940/original/image-20161007-21421-p8ivly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">We need better estimates of PTSD to find the best policies to treat it. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/marine_corps/4949341330/in/photolist-8xmEKd">Marines via Flickr</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Post-traumatic stress disorder is a serious public health challenge. It is estimated that about <a href="http://www.ptsd.va.gov/public/PTSD-overview/basics/how-common-is-ptsd.asp">eight million</a> people in the U.S. (2.5 percent of the total population) suffer from it. This rate jumps to about <a href="http://www.ptsd.va.gov/public/PTSD-overview/basics/how-common-is-ptsd.asp">11 to 20 percent</a> among Iraq and Afghanistan veterans who suffer from diagnosed or undiagnosed PTSD.</p>
<p>Affected individuals might lose their career or family or even commit <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15985839">suicide</a> due to the consequences of PTSD. The effects go beyond the individuals coping with it, extending to their family, friends, colleagues and communities. </p>
<p>Both military personnel and veterans can be affected by PTSD. However, the exact prevalence of PTSD among these two groups is unknown. This not only makes it hard to know how many people actually have PTSD but also makes it even harder to project how many will in the future. And if we don’t know how many people actually have PTSD, it can be hard to find out what policies work best to mitigate it.</p>
<p>To address these concerns, my colleagues Navid Ghaffarzadegan and Alireza Ebrahimvandi at Virginia Tech and I decided to take a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systems_science">systems science</a> approach which lets us study how parts of a large system, such as the Department of Veterans Affairs and the Department of Defense, interconnect. </p>
<p>We developed a simulation model to project the prevalence of PTSD by 2025 among military personnel and veterans and to find out what policies actually reduce the burden. Our study presenting the model was recently <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0161405">published</a> in PLOS ONE.</p>
<h2>The challenge of estimating PTSD prevalence</h2>
<p>Because screening of PTSD is based on self-reported surveys, estimating its true prevalence among veterans and current military personnel is hard to do. Answers to surveys can suffer from patients’ errors. </p>
<p>But more importantly, some PTSD patients may intentionally underplay their mental health condition to avoid being labeled as mentally ill. In a few cases, patients may <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=bpO-B5B_LsoC&pg=PT141">exaggerate</a> their problems for motives of secondary gain, such as disability compensation. </p>
<p>Our task was to put all of this information together to gain a true sense of the future prevalence of PTSD among military personnel and veterans.</p>
<h2>PTSD is a multi-organizational challenge</h2>
<p>Another challenge is that we are talking about two different populations: people currently in the military, and veterans. </p>
<p>The VA and the military are two systems within a larger system. They establish different policies, which may result in improvements in their own sectors, but are not so effective in the larger system. For instance, policies implemented in the early stages of a person’s military career, when combat readiness is a major concern, can cause serious consequences years after separation from the military. </p>
<p>In systems science, this is called “shifting the burden.” Unless the military and the VA come together to develop integrated policies, the big picture of the system will be missed by disjointed policies implemented in each organization. </p>
<p>Since PTSD is a multi-organizational challenge, estimates should take both populations into account simultaneously, which is what we did in our model.</p>
<h2>Simulating the burden of PTSD</h2>
<p>Our model includes both military personnel and veterans affected by PTSD in a “system of systems.” It uses historical data on PTSD prevalence among military personnel and veterans from the DOD, the Institute of Medicine, the VA and other sources, from 2000 to 2014. This let us validate our model and generate a more exact estimate of PTSD prevalence. </p>
<p>Our approach also allows us to ask “what-if” questions about the consequences of current policies – such as what if we focus solely on improving screening or improving screening and treatment.</p>
<p>Then we used the model to forecast PTSD prevalence over the next decade under several scenarios. These scenarios are based on common “what-ifs,” including different levels of U.S. involvement in future wars and improvements in prevention, screening and treatment. </p>
<h2>What happens if we fight another war?</h2>
<p>In an optimistic scenario where 1 percent of all military personnel are deployed to combat zones (which reflects deployment in 2014) that no war happens in the next decade, we estimate that 7 percent of military personnel and 10 percent of veterans will have PTSD by 2025.</p>
<p>But that could increase to 20 percent in the military and more than 11 percent among veterans in 2025 if the U.S. gets involved in a war requiring 5 percent deployment of all military personnel on battlefield. For perspective, from 2001 to 2014, on average, 6.6 percent were deployed annually. Larger wars with higher deployment rates will noticeably increase the prevalence of PTSD. </p>
<p>We also estimated the delay in mitigating the effects of a hypothetical war. Let’s assume that the U.S. involves in a five-year war with 10 percent troop deployment (similar to the maximum deployment in Iraq in 2008).</p>
<p>After the end of this hypothetical war, it will take about 40 years for PTSD prevalence to go back to its initial rate. This estimation shows how long the effects of war can endure.</p>
<h2>What policies work best?</h2>
<p>We also tried to get a sense of what policies work best at mitigating the problem of PTSD. Using the model, we examined the long-term effects of policies within the individual components of the system, the VA and the DOD, as well as across the entire system.</p>
<p>We found that, before and during wars, prevention interventions (focusing on resiliency-related training) are the most effective policy to decrease the prevalence of PTSD. Improving resiliency can work as a “vaccine” or early treatment before the onset of the cascading effects of PTSD. </p>
<p>However, social barriers such as the stigma of PTSD are still in place, affecting <a href="https://dspace.mit.edu/bitstream/handle/1721.1/102540/Ghaffarzadegan%26Larson2015USAMDJ_PTSD%20Vicious%20CyclesPublished.pdf?sequence=1">willingness</a> to receive early treatment.</p>
<p>Overall, our results show that in a post-war period there is no easy solution for overcoming the problem of PTSD, and the current screening and treatment policies used by the VA and the DOD must be revolutionized to have any noticeable effect. </p>
<p>The VA and the DOD should work together and try to offer timely service to patients. However, we showed that they cannot do much to decrease health care costs. These are the consequences of wars. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/140796/original/image-20161006-32691-14wamd8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/140796/original/image-20161006-32691-14wamd8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/140796/original/image-20161006-32691-14wamd8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140796/original/image-20161006-32691-14wamd8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140796/original/image-20161006-32691-14wamd8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140796/original/image-20161006-32691-14wamd8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=764&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140796/original/image-20161006-32691-14wamd8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=764&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140796/original/image-20161006-32691-14wamd8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=764&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Health care costs in the military and the VA, and PTSD prevalence in the total system in 2025. Scenario one represents minimum deployment, 1 percent of personnel to intense/combat zones, the status quo in 2014. Scenarios two and three represent 2 percent and 5 percent deployment. For each scenario, the results of improvements in screening, treatment or prevention, or any of their combinations, are shown.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0161405">N. Ghaffarzadegan et al (2016) A Dynamic Model of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder for Military Personnel and Veterans.</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We hope that the findings of this study will help the military, the VA, and other government entities identify more effective strategies. The results also show the importance of effective interaction among these large entities. We have provided the model <a href="https://forio.com/simulate/jalali/ptsd-simulation/simulation">online</a>, in an interactive interface and easy-to-interpret fashion, for the use of the public and policymakers.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/65542/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mohammad S. Jalali does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We need to know how many people have PTSD to figure out what policies can reduce the burden.Mohammad S. Jalali, Research Faculty, MIT Sloan School of ManagementLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/655352016-10-07T01:13:52Z2016-10-07T01:13:52ZA military view on climate change: It’s eroding our national security and we should prepare for it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/140358/original/image-20161004-20196-123m542.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The guided missile destroyer USS Barry deploys to sea from Naval Station Norfolk ahead of Hurricane Sandy in 2012. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usnavy/8148296714">U.S. Navy/Flickr</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In this presidential election year we have heard much about some issues, such as immigration and trade, and less about others. For example, climate change was discussed for an estimated <a href="http://grist.org/election-2016/climate-airtime-presidential-debate/">82 seconds</a> in the first presidential debate last week, and for just 37 minutes in all presidential and vice presidential debates since the year 2000. </p>
<p>Many observers think climate change <a href="http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/column-when-will-the-candidates-pay-attention-to-the-biggest-environmental-issue-facing-america/">deserves more attention</a>. They might be surprised to learn that U.S. military leaders and defense planners agree. The armed forces have been studying climate change for years from a perspective that rarely is mentioned in the news: as a national security threat. And they agree that it poses serious risks.</p>
<p>I spent 32 years as a meteorologist in the U.S. Navy, where I initiated and led the Navy’s Task Force on Climate Change. Here is how military planners see this issue: We know that the climate is changing, we know why it’s changing and we understand that change will have large impacts on our national security. Yet as a nation we still only begrudgingly take precautions. </p>
<p>The Obama administration recently announced several actions that create a framework for addressing climate-driven security threats. But much of the hard work lies ahead – assuming that our next president understands the risks and chooses to act on them.</p>
<h2>Climate-related disruptions</h2>
<p>Climate change affects our security in two ways. First, it causes stresses such as water shortages and crop failures, which can exacerbate or inflame existing tensions within or between states. These problems can lead to state failure, uncontrolled migration and ungoverned spaces. </p>
<p>On Sept. 21 the <a href="https://www.dni.gov/index.php">National Intelligence Council</a> issued its <a href="https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Reports%20and%20Pubs/Implications_for_US_National_Security_of_Anticipated_Climate_Change.pdf">most recent report</a> on implications of climate change for U.S. national security. This document represents the U.S. intelligence community’s strategic-level view. It does not come from the <a href="http://ipcc.ch/">Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change</a>, politicians of either party or an advocacy group, but from nonpartisan, senior U.S. intelligence professionals.</p>
<p>The NIC report emphasizes that the problem is not simply climate change, but the interaction of climate with other large-scale demographic and migration trends; its impacts on food, energy and health; and the stresses it will place on societies, especially fragile ones. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/140603/original/image-20161005-20152-18fqnz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/140603/original/image-20161005-20152-18fqnz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140603/original/image-20161005-20152-18fqnz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140603/original/image-20161005-20152-18fqnz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140603/original/image-20161005-20152-18fqnz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140603/original/image-20161005-20152-18fqnz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140603/original/image-20161005-20152-18fqnz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Aftermath of a bomb attack in 2014 in Jos, Nigeria by the militant group Boko Haram. Analysts have linked Boko Haram’s rise to climatic shifts and resource shortages.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/diariocriticove/14234700921/in/photolist-nFSyDX-q8NDt9-qqewKB-q8PehU-ndT5gn-ndTgjy-ptDKgn-nv5U9R-qo66nW-q8MVX3-ndT5UC-nvnEFP-njeWoz-qqm1Ff-q8WNog-ndT4AT-nv7753-qqimH5-q8PsKf-ndT9p3-q8V7Dk-qo5SQw-qo5xA9-ndSVU2-q8Nfjd-qqiehd-pto53U-qqc6sg-qqiz2y-nv6NgY-q8WzGz-qqchy4-q8WF5D-q8NhRC-r4kKaG-nqdkQ2-aFUXuT-rfLwFm-scLBbp-qeNLAf-rVcyxL-scLBsM-rfXZXH-qqi8PQ-npEQFJ-qqnb5M-qo5TBS-q8Wyrt-ptBaCe-qqnmS8">Diariocritico de Venezuela/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As examples the report cites diverse events, ranging from mass protests and violence triggered by water shortages in Mauritania to the possibility that thawing in the Arctic could threaten Russian oil pipelines in the region. Other studies have identified climate change as a contributing factor to events including the <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-and-drought-a-spark-in-igniting-syrias-civil-war-38275">civil war in Syria</a> and the <a href="https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/climatechangearabspring-ccs-cap-stimson.pdf">Arab Spring uprisings</a>.</p>
<p>Second, climate change is putting our military bases and associated domestic infrastructure in the United States under growing pressure from rising sea levels, “nuisance flooding,” increasingly destructive storm surges, intense rainfalls and droughts, and indirect impacts from wildfires. All of these trends make it harder to train our soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines to deploy and fight the “away” game and to keep our forces ready to deploy. </p>
<p>These changes are not hypothetical. Consider Hurricane Matthew: although we cannot directly attribute this storm to climate change, scientists tell us that as climate change worsens, major hurricanes will become more severe. As Matthew moves up the Atlantic coast, the armed forces are evacuating thousands of <a href="https://www.marinecorpstimes.com/articles/marine-recruits-being-evacuated-from-parris-island-ahead-of-hurricane-matthew">service members</a> and <a href="https://www.navytimes.com/articles/navy-families-evacuate-cuba-ahead-of-hurricane-matthew">dependents</a> out of its path, and the Navy is <a href="https://news.usni.org/2016/10/05/navy-sends-3-mayport-ships-sea-ahead-hurricane-matthew">moving ships out to sea</a>. Other units are preparing to <a href="https://www.navytimes.com/articles/us-military-staged-for-massive-relief-effort-is-called-upon">deliver hurricane relief</a> to hard-hit areas.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/140604/original/image-20161005-20139-692r3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/140604/original/image-20161005-20139-692r3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140604/original/image-20161005-20139-692r3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140604/original/image-20161005-20139-692r3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140604/original/image-20161005-20139-692r3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140604/original/image-20161005-20139-692r3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140604/original/image-20161005-20139-692r3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Marines from the 8th Engineering Support Battalion, Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, participate in relief efforts in New York after Hurricane Sandy, November 2012.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/dvids/8179954532/in/photolist-dsQpuQ-3Wm4s-foFiuY-aQW9sV-fpm5Ny-foFivf-oZM4WY-5n7TLB-cEEbkm-dqUvXq-dpZGbT-dpZKYx-drrRyZ-ajX6D5-dpZwN9-5mBqGY-dqTS8n-drrRC8-5mBo5W-dpZxFM-aggtL6-5oAZfK-5oAtDJ-8RHXiX-drtY8X-dpHeYF-dpJaiS-dpc2JC-dpHcoB-8F5gHf-drMDmY-5mxadz-ai6FSe-fv9yHf-agja53-9acdPW-5mxbz6-3T4gb3-6ZKChP-3T4gqq-5owc2k-6ZKBZF-5mBpid-dsXM42-5i17aC-5mBidi-dtTorL-g7u7Lr-domgCS-5owbMp">U.S. Navy/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many of us who work in this field have written and talked about risks like these for years. Along with 24 other retired senior officers, civilian defense officials from Republican and Democratic administrations, and well-respected academics, I recently signed a <a href="https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/climate-and-security-consensus-project-statement-2016_09.pdf">consensus statement</a> that calls climate change a strategically significant risk to our national security and international stability. We called for “a robust agenda to both prevent and prepare for climate change risks,” and warned that “inaction is not an option.” </p>
<p>The “change” part of climate change is critical: The more ability we have to adapt to and manage changes and the rate of change in our climate, the greater our chances are to avoid catastrophic chaos and instability.</p>
<h2>Meeting the challenge</h2>
<p>Simultaneously with the NIC report on Sept. 21, the White House released a <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/09/21/presidential-memorandum-climate-change-and-national-security">Presidential Memorandum</a>, or PM, on climate change and national security. This document formally states the administration’s position that climate change impacts national security. </p>
<p>Building on past executive orders and policies, it directs senior climate officials at 20 federal agencies to form a working group on climate change and national security, cochaired by the president’s national security adviser and science adviser. This working group will analyze questions such as which countries and regions are most vulnerable to climate change impacts in the near, medium and long term. </p>
<p>That’s high-level attention! In the words of a senior administration official, the PM “gives permission” for career civil servants and military professionals to work on this challenge, just as they address myriad other security challenges daily. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/140612/original/image-20161005-20110-8uft58.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/140612/original/image-20161005-20110-8uft58.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140612/original/image-20161005-20110-8uft58.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140612/original/image-20161005-20110-8uft58.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140612/original/image-20161005-20110-8uft58.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140612/original/image-20161005-20110-8uft58.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140612/original/image-20161005-20110-8uft58.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Destroyed tanks in front of a mosque in Azaz, Syria, 2012. Climate scientists have identified the 2006-2010 drought in Syria as a factor in the civil uprising that began in 2011.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/christiaantriebert/7955551210/in/photolist-d81hd3-2kF2um-mQPFqL-pd9LmU-9chSab-81TTf9-i2oSVN-81QLxV-p6vQv5-fFFfgq-81FYed-nHo56C-81TTHN-81CN12-3m857P-oYzXUt-ogfxkE-nFygpF-fhmtse-fLDJHo-fNKZvf-jDsP5g-81G4ZC-nY421x-81Foxs-gXprFQ-81FnxJ-81QBK6-aGe71P-aGdZsp-cKqYWC-ghS8Us-nXWhLG-fFEeyu-fNuLVz-fXvryk-fXtCiv-pHa2Wx-fhmuJF-nXWw9d-eMr4XD-fLkw3X-nXWi7S-fFEfW3-efj4Le-fhmwtM-fNuMbe-g775j8-81TSaA-81FC4h">Christiaan Triebert/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But we need to do much more. I am a member of the <a href="https://climateandsecurity.org/policy/">Climate and Security Advisory Group</a> – a voluntary, nonpartisan group of 43 U.S.-based military, national security, homeland security, intelligence and foreign policy experts from a broad range of institutions. We have produced a comprehensive <a href="https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/climate-and-security-advisory-group_briefing-book-for-a-new-administration_2016_091.pdf">briefing book</a> for the next administration that makes detailed recommendations about how to expand our efforts to address security risks associated with climate change. </p>
<p>Our top-line recommendation is to “mainstream” this issue by ensuring that U.S. leaders consider climate change on an equal basis with more traditional security issues, such as changing demographics, economics, political dynamics and other indicators of instability – as well as with low-probability, high-consequence threats like nuclear proliferation. We also recommend that the next president should designate senior officials in key departments, the intelligence community, the National Security Council and within the Executive Office of the President itself to ensure this intent is carried out.</p>
<p>What’s next? As a retired naval officer, I find myself drawing on the words of American naval heroes like <a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/macarthur/peopleevents/pandeAMEX90.html">Admiral Chester Nimitz</a>. In 1945, while he was commander in chief of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, Nimitz <a href="https://www.history.navy.mil/research/library/online-reading-room/title-list-alphabetically/p/pacific-typhoon-18-december-1944/admiral-nimitzs-pacific-fleet-confidential-letter-on-lessons-of-damage-in-typhoon.html">wrote</a> about a devastating storm near the Philippines that had sunk three ships and seriously damaged more than 20 others, killing and injuring hundreds of sailors. He concluded by observing that: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“The time for taking all measures for a ship’s safety is while still able to do so. Nothing is more dangerous than for a seaman to be grudging in taking precautions lest they turn out to have been unnecessary. Safety at sea for a thousand years has depended on exactly the opposite philosophy.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The next president will have a choice to make. One option is to continue down the path that the Obama administration has defined and develop policies, budgets, plans and programs that flesh out the institutional framework now in place. Alternatively, he or she can call climate change a hoax manufactured by foreign governments and ignore the flashing red lights of increasing risk. </p>
<p>The world’s ice caps will not care who is elected or what is said. They will simply continue to melt, as dictated by laws of physics. But Americans will care deeply about our policy response. Our nation’s security is at stake.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/65535/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Titley is an advisory board member of Citizens' Climate Lobby, the Center for Climate and Security, and is affiliated with the Hoover Institution's Arctic Security Initiative. </span></em></p>Politicians are still debating whether climate change is real, but military planners call it a serious threat. A retired rear admiral explains how climate change affects U.S. national security.David Titley, Professor of Practice in Meteorology & Director Center for Solutions to Weather and Climate Risk, Adjunct Senior Fellow, Center for New American Security, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/620902016-09-13T00:40:38Z2016-09-13T00:40:38ZWomen’s key role in Islamic State networks, explained<p>Late last week, three women were arrested in Paris for attempting to <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/islamic-state-guided-women-in-paris-terrorist-plan-prosecutor-says-1473439808">detonate a car bomb</a> outside Notre Dame cathedral.</p>
<p>“If at first it appeared that women were confined to family and domestic chores by the Daesh terrorist organization, it must be noted that this view is now completely outdated,” <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/10/world/europe/france-paris-isis-terrorism-women.html">François Molins</a>, a French prosecutor, told reporters in announcing the arrests. Molins used the <a href="https://theconversation.com/islamic-state-versus-daish-or-daesh-the-political-battle-over-naming-50822">French term</a> in referring to the Islamic State.</p>
<h2>Data and disciplines</h2>
<p>It is exactly this stereotype of women doing little more than playing supporting roles in IS and other terrorist organizations that is the subject of recent research at the University of Miami. </p>
<p>My co-investigators and I wanted to compare the role of women and men in terrorist organizations as a whole – not focus on particular stand-out individuals. As a result, we took a systems-level view. Systems analysis looks at phenomena that emerge from a collection of complex interacting objects – for example, networks of people. </p>
<p>To understand the value of a systems approach, think about traffic. Taking apart 1,000 cars will never help you understand a traffic jam since traffic jams come from how groups of cars interact. Answering our research question about women’s roles in terrorist networks required social analysis, data collection and quantifying the evolution of groups in networks over time, so we assembled an interdisciplinary team made up of physicists, computer scientists, sociologists and terrorism experts. </p>
<h2>The data sets</h2>
<p>Our work was made possible by access to data sets from arguably the two most successful terrorist organizations in history: the Islamic State and the Provisional Irish Republican Army. </p>
<p>Our Islamic State data consisted of the membership of their online support network. This network has been instrumental in promoting the organization’s growth by attracting recruits. This list of IS supporters was collected from open-source information on the social networking site <a href="https://theconversation.com/disrupting-pro-isis-online-ecosystems-could-help-thwart-real-world-terrorism-60995">VKontakte</a>. </p>
<p>Members of the online groups in the network routinely exchange operational information and <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/352/6292/1459">attempt to generate</a> recruits. Their discussions frequently included details of fund-raising for potential fighters who wanted to travel to Syria or transferring funds for fighters already there. They shared details about survival skills such as how to use cellphones and the internet without being detected by security services. They also shared details on how to prevent or repel a drone attack and evade certain types of drones. </p>
<p>Since these online groups are always trying to attract further support, each group typically leaves its information freely available for anyone with an internet connection to see. This enabled us to do our work without knowing the individual’s identities beyond their open declaration of gender. As these groups were supporting violent extremism, most were shutdown by online moderators within a few weeks of being created. However, the users would simply go on to form another group or join an existing group that was still evading shutdown. The open-source data revealed that 41,880 individuals took part in these pro-IS groups over a two-month period. Of these, 24,883 were men and 66 had no declared gender. About 40 percent – or 16,931 – were women.</p>
<p>The second data set emerged from a recent comprehensive analysis by our coauthors, John Horgan from Georgia State University and Paul Gill from University College London, of the pre-internet terrorist campaign by Provisional IRA in Northern Ireland. The data comprised a <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09546553.2012.664587#.V4LALlflfRo">list</a> of individuals known to have participated in each of the attacks by the Provisional IRA. During the 1980s and early 1990s, the Provisional IRA managed to sustain a successful and highly innovative <a href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk/scs/rsch-coct/ira-lethal-connections">improvised explosive device</a> campaign against British interests. This was despite being subject to the security constraints imposed by the United Kingdom. Of the 1,382 total number of Provisional IRA individuals listed, only 70 people were women.</p>
<h2>Women emerge as better connected</h2>
<p>We then reconstructed a time-dependent social network for both the hardcore, online pro-IS network and the offline, on-the-street Provisional IRA network. </p>
<p>We did this by seeing which individuals were members of the same pro-IS online group and the Provisional IRA attack group at each moment in time. For example, suppose person A is in a pro-IS online group on a given day with person B and C; then A and B, B and C, and A and C all have connections between them on that day. Since people were constantly joining and dropping out of the groups, the networks continuously evolved. </p>
<p>We were surprised to find that in both the online IS and offline Provisional IRA networks, women acted as a far stronger “glue” than men in holding the network together. This was despite women being in the minority in both cases.</p>
<h2>The spaces between</h2>
<p>In network language, this means the women possess a “higher betweenness.” They provide a <a href="http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/6/e1501742">disproportionately</a> richer resource for conflict resolution within the network, as well as providing better conduits for propaganda, financing and operational information.</p>
<p>In plain terms, the women effectively hold the key to the flow of information, ideas and material between members within the group.</p>
<p>The following diagram shows what having “high betweenness” means for a representative portion of these networks in which men are the majority (M1, M2, M3 and M4) and one woman (W). If you are a man in the network, you could not possibly reach all the other men without the woman being present. The connections between the men, who form the majority population, therefore, rely on the women – who are in the minority.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133174/original/image-20160804-505-13ub7kd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133174/original/image-20160804-505-13ub7kd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133174/original/image-20160804-505-13ub7kd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133174/original/image-20160804-505-13ub7kd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133174/original/image-20160804-505-13ub7kd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133174/original/image-20160804-505-13ub7kd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133174/original/image-20160804-505-13ub7kd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Example of a portion of the network showing one woman (W) and four men (M1, M2, M3 and M4). The woman has a higher betweenness than any of the men, which means that she acts like the glue holding the network together.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Neil Johnson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For the hardcore pro-IS online support, for example, our results suggest that any given woman will be a conduit for at least twice as many pieces of information, know-how and materials than a man on average. </p>
<h2>Passing along information</h2>
<p>We also found that the women simultaneously manage to maintain fairly low profiles. This turns out to be favorable for individual survival given the individual risks involved in such extreme activities. </p>
<p>The lifetime, or resilience, of an online group of pro-IS followers faced with continual shutdowns by the online moderators tends to increase as the ratio of women to men increases. Such a result is <a href="http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/6/e1501742">consistent</a> with women’s tendency to be better embedded in the network.</p>
<p>One practical consequence of our findings is that a sensible way of dealing with a terrorist network would be to engage with the women involved. This is true even if the women are in the minority and also may not currently be deemed key figures. </p>
<p>We believe our results could also be of interest more generally, since they suggest that society could usefully redefine how it judges the importance of any minority group or individual in a network. Instead of the usual measure of how much of a “star” any individual is, our results urge decision-makers to worry more about who is the glue holding the whole group together.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62090/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Johnson receives funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF) grant CNS1522693 and Air Force (AFOSR) grant FA9550-16-1-0247</span></em></p>The recent arrest of female terrorists in France brought attention to the role women play in IS. A group of American academics studied this issue – with a surprising result.Neil Johnson, Professor of Physics, University of MiamiLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/638052016-08-29T00:36:35Z2016-08-29T00:36:35ZHow victims of terror are remembered distorts perceptions of safety<p>Are Americans safe from terrorism?</p>
<p>Forty-nine dead in Orlando, five in Dallas and three in Baton Rouge in 2016. Twelve dead in San Bernardino, three at a Planned Parenthood clinic in Colorado Springs and nine at a church in Charleston in 2015. </p>
<p>In addition, Americans watched ample news coverage of the attacks in Nice and Brussels in 2016, and two far more deadly attacks in Paris in 2015. Jihadist attacks are up dramatically in Europe, from four in 2014 to 17 <a href="https://www.europol.europa.eu/content/european-union-terrorism-situation-and-trend-report-te-sat-2016">in 2015</a>. And, there are even more frequent deaths from terrorism elsewhere in the world, which usually receive less intense coverage in the U.S.</p>
<p>From 2002 through 2015, 80 Americans were <a href="https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/Results.aspx?country=217">killed</a> in terrorist attacks. The 57 killed in 2016 almost equals the total of the previous 13 years. The totality of attacks worldwide can give Americans the impression that they are in escalating danger. An evolution in the way we remember the war dead since Vietnam may be one reason these deaths take up so much space in the public imagination.</p>
<p>In comparison to overall murders and auto accident fatalities, the deaths from terrorism are less significant. In 2013, the most recent year for which there are comprehensive statistics from the FBI, 13,716 Americans were <a href="https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-in-the-u.s.-2013">murdered</a>, the equivalent of an Orlando massacre every 32 hours. </p>
<p>In 2014, 32,675 Americans <a href="http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/main/index.aspx">died</a> in car accidents. In other words, the 57 Americans who died in terrorist attacks in 2016 were equal to 0.42 percent of all murders and 0.17 percent of all traffic deaths.</p>
<p>Why do the terrorist attacks get so much media coverage? Why is fear of terrorism a major issue in the current election? A Pew Research Center <a href="http://www.people-press.org/2016/07/07/4-top-voting-issues-in-2016-election/">poll</a> shows 80 percent of Americans see terrorism as “very important” to their vote this year, second only to the economy at 84 percent. </p>
<h2>Framing terror</h2>
<p>When an unusual and seemingly random tragedy strikes, some may try to give it meaning by relating it to other, more familiar and historic horrors. When the Bush administration decided after 9/11 to label its response a “War on Terror,” it gave the American public a template for understanding future attacks. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/9aKWhUHAH_w?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>The way in which Orlando was labeled and framed by news media and politicians shapes the way in which we think about that horrific event. For those who see it as a mass murder, Orlando is evidence of the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/13/us/orlando-gunman-used-assault-rifle-with-military-roots-police-say.html">dangers</a> of making automatic weapons available for purchase by civilians. However, a significant amount of coverage of Orlando focused on the killer and his professed Islamist extremism. The 49 dead then become something different from the largely anonymous thousands of Americans murdered with guns each year. Instead, the 49 are seen as war casualties and are viewed in ways borrowed from the forms we use to memorialize war dead. </p>
<p>I have <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Nationalism-War-John-Hall/dp/1107610087/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1472139013&sr=8-1&keywords=nationalism+and+war">studied</a> depictions of war dead in newspapers, <a href="http://soe.sagepub.com/content/87/3/188.full.pdf+html">textbooks</a> and <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41290-016-0002-x">Medal of Honor</a> citations. During the Vietnam War and since, the U.S. military, textbook publishers and mass media abandoned longstanding conventions of how to present war dead.</p>
<h2>New types of heroism in Vietnam</h2>
<p>Before Vietnam, the dominant approach was to focus on soldiers’ heroic actions and to describe how they contributed to American victory, and in that way find meaning in their ultimate sacrifice. The media might have named dead soldiers, but little, and more often nothing, was said about their <a href="http://query.nytimes.com/mem/archive-free/pdf?res=9A03E1D71438E73ABC4051DFBE66838A649EDE">premilitary lives</a>. Their families were ignored or presented as stoic patriots, proud of their husbands’, sons’ or fathers’ sacrifice. The U.S. military <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41290-016-0002-x">awarded medals</a> mainly for acts that led to the deaths of enemy soldiers. The physical and emotional trauma of soldiers who endured combat and of their relatives received little attention in the media, from public officials or in school textbooks. Photos of dead American soldiers, while often graphic, <a href="http://time.com/3524493/the-photo-that-won-world-war-ii-dead-americans-at-buna-beach-1943/">rarely showed faces</a>, and captions omitted the names of those shown. </p>
<p>Portrayals of dead soldiers changed dramatically during the Vietnam War. Medals were <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41290-016-0002-x">increasingly</a> given for saving the lives of fellow American soldiers rather than killing the enemy. Newspaper stories during Vietnam and even more in recent wars paid increasing attention to the grief of dead soldiers’ relatives and to the suffering of the injured.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135669/original/image-20160826-17887-566xmz.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135669/original/image-20160826-17887-566xmz.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135669/original/image-20160826-17887-566xmz.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135669/original/image-20160826-17887-566xmz.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135669/original/image-20160826-17887-566xmz.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135669/original/image-20160826-17887-566xmz.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135669/original/image-20160826-17887-566xmz.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Soldiers carry a wounded comrade in Vietnam, 1969.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usnationalarchives/5165057670/">U.S. National Archives/flickr</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Prisoners of war first gained attention during Vietnam, and the attention to those held by the enemy intensified during the Iranian hostage crisis of 1979-81. War photos increasingly present soldiers in pain rather than in <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/26/world/middleeast/26censor.html">heroic tableaus</a> and often are used to illustrate lengthy articles on the difficulties those who were wounded or emotionally traumatized face in <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/04/nyregion/04soldier.html">returning</a> to civilian life. Textbook chapters on victorious wars like World War II as well as Vietnam seek to <a href="http://soe.sagepub.com/content/87/3/188.full.pdf+html">describe the terror</a> and agony of combat rather than offering narrow depictions of brave and stoic soldiers. </p>
<h2>Honor without victory</h2>
<p>The new way of presenting soldiers in war grew in part out of efforts to find honor in America’s defeat in Vietnam, and now in the inconclusive and seemingly unending wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Soldiers aren’t honored for victory because it hasn’t been achieved. Instead, they are praised for saving one another’s lives and for struggling to <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41290-016-0002-x">overcome</a> their personal traumas. As a result, the highest value for soldiers in combat has become minimizing casualties.</p>
<p>The names of each dead soldier are published in newspapers, following the pattern set by the Vietnam War Memorial. The memorial represented that war as a list of names <a href="http://www.journals.uchicago.edu.libproxy.albany.edu/doi/pdfplus/10.1086/229783">abstracted</a> from any larger narrative and without reference to any purpose for which that war was fought.</p>
<p>When a mass murder is labeled as domestic terrorism, the victims are seen as casualties in the War on Terror. As such, their deaths are visualized and understood through the pattern now established for memorializing soldiers. Thus, each of the dead in Orlando, Baton Rouge, Dallas, San Bernardino and Charleston, and of course those who died on 9/11 and in the few attacks in between 2001 and 2016, were made the subjects of <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/13/us/orlando-victims-profiles/index.html">biographical articles</a> in the <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/victims-charleston-church-shooting-diverse-group-article-1.2263187">media</a>. When memorials are built to remember each of these tragedies they will be centered on the names of the dead, as is <a href="https://www.911memorial.org/names-memorial">the case</a> with One World Trade Center that commemorates those lost on 9/11.</p>
<p>This framework makes the attacks more personal to the public because we begin to know personal details about the victims, and therefore think we know the victims and feel their families’ trauma. </p>
<p>A relatively few deaths become manifestations of a war come home to America. Those few highly publicized deaths provoke levels of <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-psychology-of-terrorism-fears-9780195388114?cc=us&lang=en&">fear and anger</a> that make it difficult to think clearly about the actual causes of these crimes and conceive of governmental policies that actually might make prevent future attacks.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63805/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Lachmann does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Are Americans at increasing risk of being killed in a terrorist attack? A sociologist explains how the way we remember the dead may make it feel that way.Richard Lachmann, Professor of Sociology, University at Albany, State University of New YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/605052016-06-21T10:00:34Z2016-06-21T10:00:34ZExpand the draft to women – or repeal it? A long constitutional debate continues<p>The military draft has surfaced again as a source of national debate, as it has throughout American history.</p>
<p>On <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/06/15/482168066/in-defense-bill-senate-approves-plan-for-women-to-register-for-draft">June 15</a>, the Senate passed a proposal to require women to register with the Selective Service. In the same bill, Senator Rand Paul took the opportunity to <a href="http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/rand-paul-introduces-amendment-to-get-rid-of-draft/article/2592170#.V0WkJwsaKvy.twitter">introduce</a> an amendment to eliminate the draft entirely.</p>
<p>As a Ph.D. candidate studying <a href="http://trolp.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/5_Mosvick.pdf">constitutional</a> history in the North during the Civil War, I see the extension of the draft to women as something new. On the other hand, Paul’s opposition to national conscription is practically as old as the country itself.</p>
<p>Critics of the draft, from the first constitutional debates to the Civil War to World War I to Rand Paul today, have embraced the constitution to attack what they see as the antidemocratic nature of conscription. </p>
<p>Why has this debate gone on so long? </p>
<h2>Divided at the root</h2>
<p>Arguments for and against the draft are rooted in the Constitution, which granted Congress the power to raise armies. During ratification of the Constitution in 1788 and 1789, Anti-Federalists – those opposed to the Constitution as written – raised concerns over this power.</p>
<p>Their first and central claim was that the Constitution provided unlimited power to Congress over states’ forces. An Anti-Federalist author, Brutus, <a href="http://www.constitution.org/afp/brutus08.htm">warned</a> that if the national government needed to raise an army, it would directly force men from out of the state militias and into the national forces.</p>
<p>This idea was worrying to 18th-century Americans who had not forgotten the British army’s presence in the colonies in the lead-up to the American Revolution. Directly mustering individuals from state armies into a national army would destroy states’ ability to regulate their own militias, and thus their independence.</p>
<p>During the War of 1812, several New England governors refused to allow their citizens to be marched out of their states under conscription. They objected to the notion that the federal government had authority to use state militia. In December 1814, these governors <a href="http://avalon.law.yale.edu/19th_century/hartconv.asp">proposed</a> amendments at the Hartford Convention to stop conscription. The convention failed, but the Anti-Federalist constitutional arguments against usurping state militia power survived.</p>
<h2>The first national draft</h2>
<p>The Civil War was the first time in American history that national conscription of civilians took place, starting with the Confederacy in April 1862 and the North in March 1863. Before then, federal power had been limited to calling on citizens already in service of the United States, or in state militias.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127425/original/image-20160620-8894-1arndmu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127425/original/image-20160620-8894-1arndmu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127425/original/image-20160620-8894-1arndmu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127425/original/image-20160620-8894-1arndmu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127425/original/image-20160620-8894-1arndmu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127425/original/image-20160620-8894-1arndmu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127425/original/image-20160620-8894-1arndmu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127425/original/image-20160620-8894-1arndmu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Civil War depiction of attempts to evade the draft.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Library of Congress/W. E. S. Trowbridge</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The draft engendered fierce <a href="http://www.oah.org/site/assets/documents/08_JAH_1981_levine.pdf">opposition</a> from the <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/421775/summary">Midwest</a> to <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/20091147?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">Pennsylvania</a>, <a href="http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/26/black-new-york-and-the-draft-riots/?_r=0">New York</a> and <a href="http://mdihistory.org/wp-content/uploads/The-War-at-Home-Copperheads-Eown-East-1861-1865_ocr.pdf">New England</a>. During the war, northern Democrats built upon existing constitutional arguments against conscription, primarily focused on opposing federalism.</p>
<p>To bolster their argument, northern Democrats argued states had a reserved right, under the Tenth Amendment, to maintain their militias. In their view, the Constitution delegated no right to the federal government to take absolute control over state militias, or to conscript individuals. In the Constitution, they argued, the word “army” did not encompass the militias of the states, or individuals not in service.</p>
<p>As one New York pamphleteer argued, individuals were now subjected to the “immediate domination of Federal powers.” The opposition managed to secure a few minor legal victories in <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=iPrzAAAAMAAJ&pg=PA238&dq=kneedler+lane+pennsylvania&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi6tYvk6ZjNAhWI1x4KHSbYC8AQ6AEIOjAF#v=onepage&q=kneedler%20lane%20pennsylvania&f=false">Pennsylvania</a> and New York. But no case ever reached the Supreme Court, where the draft could have been struck down.</p>
<p>National conscription created a massive federal administrative apparatus. Northern Democrats argued that the creation of the Provost Marshal and Board of Enrollments was unconstitutional because it vested independent judicial powers in unappointed executive officers. Such centralized administrative power is familiar to modern Americans, but the breadth of new federal power stunned 18th- and 19th-century Americans.</p>
<h2>The legacy carries on</h2>
<p>When national conscription was revived in 1917 after the United States entered World War I, constitutional arguments against it continued. Socialists who eventually brought a case before the Supreme Court argued the Thirteenth Amendment prohibited the draft as involuntary servitude. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127427/original/image-20160620-8861-fqn4ez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127427/original/image-20160620-8861-fqn4ez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127427/original/image-20160620-8861-fqn4ez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=885&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127427/original/image-20160620-8861-fqn4ez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=885&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127427/original/image-20160620-8861-fqn4ez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=885&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127427/original/image-20160620-8861-fqn4ez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1113&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127427/original/image-20160620-8861-fqn4ez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1113&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127427/original/image-20160620-8861-fqn4ez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1113&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The draft lottery during the Vietnam War.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Library of Congress/Thomas J. O'Halloran</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, in 1918, the Supreme Court unanimously upheld conscription in <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/245/366/case.html">Arver v. U.S.</a> The court refused to wrestle with the constitutional tradition against conscription because the power to draft was “clearly sustained” by the Constitution, according to Chief Justice Edward Douglass White. </p>
<p>From World War I to the Vietnam War, the debate over the draft shifted focus from national power to free speech. Protesters demanded the right to publish anti-draft pamphlets and burn draft cards. Public opinion during Vietnam caused a shift to an all-volunteer army, but 18-year-old males are still required to register for the Selective Service. Soon, females may be required to do the same. That makes a modern-day draft still a real possibility.</p>
<p>And while the draft exists – even if it is rarely used – the arguments regarding conscription’s place in a constitutional democracy will likely continue as well.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60505/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Mosvick previously worked as a legal associate for the Cato Institute. </span></em></p>Congress is debating the power of government to use a military draft. An Ole Miss historian explains how this power is rooted in our nation’s founding document.Nicholas Mosvick, Ph.D. Candidate, University of MississippiLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/545182016-02-19T11:01:33Z2016-02-19T11:01:33ZDoD detainee photos raise disturbing questions about transparency<p>A shirtless man, his back toward the camera, stands before a beige wall, a scabbed abrasion on his left shoulder blade and a small ruler affixed to his skin, for scale.</p>
<p>Scraped knees, swollen ankles, grainy black and white collages of unnamed men, sitting, crouching, kneeling, in various phases of capture and confinement. </p>
<p>This is what transparency looks like, this time around. </p>
<p>On February 5, the <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/02/military-releases-small-batch-abuse-case-photos-160206040701961.html">Department of Defense (DoD) released</a> 198 previously classified photos that documented the abuse of detainees between 2001 and 2009 by the U.S. military at sites across Afghanistan and Iraq. </p>
<p>The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) <a href="https://www.aclu.org/news/pentagon-releases-198-photos-relating-detainee-abuse-long-running-aclu-lawsuit">spent more than 10 years fighting</a> for the release of these images. And this is just the beginning. </p>
<p>The ACLU estimates that the Pentagon holds roughly 1,800 additional photos: it has vowed to force the DoD to make those public too. </p>
<p>In the meantime, the ACLU contends that the release of these 198 photos constitutes an important victory for the cause of transparency, and thus for American democracy. The release, they say, represents a means of holding the government to account and, thus, reduces its capacity to torture.</p>
<p>These are critically important goals, but as someone who studies visual culture and militarism, I argue that these photos will do little to foster public recognition of, or empathy for, the detainees. Moreover, their release raises fundamental questions about how we define and practice transparency. </p>
<p>For these reasons, which I will expand on below, I have opted not to reproduce or hyperlink the images here. </p>
<h2>‘Benign’ photos?</h2>
<p>Most of the images that the DoD has made public are forensic-looking shots of injured body parts, extremities like arms, hands, feet and legs. They are tightly focused and clinically framed in ways that dehumanize the detainees. </p>
<p>These photos reduce bodies – and therefore people – to signs of physical trauma, even as the poor quality of many of the images often makes the injuries difficult to discern. When whole bodies do appear, “redaction” – in the form of black rectangles superimposed over identifying facial features – fragments and abstracts them.</p>
<p>And we never see American military personnel, with the exception of a few exploratory fingertips that might belong to someone other than the pictured detainee. </p>
<p>These images, in other words, tell us virtually nothing about what caused the injuries. </p>
<p>A DoD spokesman characterized the photos as <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/pentagon-defense-department-200-images-detainee-abuse-iraq-afghanistan-423625">“benign,”</a> wording that minimizes the harm that the pictures document, but also – perhaps unintentionally – acknowledges that they show very little that is likely to elicit widespread public anger. </p>
<p>Of course, any injury that American military personnel deliberately inflict on a detainee, or do not make a good faith effort to prevent, is untenable. </p>
<p>But <a href="http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/180008/retrospective-look-americans-view-torture.aspx">broad swaths of the American public remain ambivalent about torture</a> and whether it should be permissible. </p>
<p>These new photos are far less graphic than those leaked from the Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq in 2004, and even that relatively clear evidence of torture effected only minimal change in the course of the war. The release of the Abu Ghraib photos corresponded to a <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/05/18/detainee.abuse.lookback/index.html">decrease</a> in President Bush’s already declining approval rating, but he was reelected roughly six months later.</p>
<p>Given that these photos are unlikely to affect public opinion, how significant is their release? </p>
<h2>The ACLU case</h2>
<p>The ACLU asserts that the photos the DoD did not declassify are <a href="https://www.aclu.org/blog/speak-freely/picture-torture-worth-thousand-reports">much more graphic</a>.</p>
<p>Perhaps this is why, in its press releases, the <a href="https://www.aclu.org/other/aclu-v-dod-198-photos-previously-certified-under-protected-national-security-documents-act">ACLU has made </a>relatively cursory mention of the content of these 198 photos, and focused much more on the legal and symbolic significance of the disclosure. </p>
<p>For example, on February 5, a staff attorney for the ACLU <a href="http://time.com/4210483/aclu-on-detainee-photos/">published a column in <em>Time</em> magazine</a> contending that the photos are “disturbing and hint at the brutality of what the government is still keeping secret.” </p>
<p>But such a claim devalues these photos, and the suffering to which they attest. At the same time it whets a public appetite for even more dramatic scenes. The photos – and hence the people captured within them – are being used instrumentally in the service of a larger mission.</p>
<p>The ACLU’s argument points, as I see it, to a fundamental problem with how we typically understand and apply the idea of transparency in the matters of detention and abuse.</p>
<h2>Problems with transparency</h2>
<p>Transparency is the cornerstone of legislation like the <a href="http://www.foia.gov/">Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)</a> and websites like WikiLeaks. The transparency paradigm is based on the assumption that governments and corporations will conduct themselves lawfully and ethically if they operate under the fear of public scrutiny.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/111389/original/image-20160213-29172-4mxw6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/111389/original/image-20160213-29172-4mxw6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=858&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/111389/original/image-20160213-29172-4mxw6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=858&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/111389/original/image-20160213-29172-4mxw6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=858&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/111389/original/image-20160213-29172-4mxw6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1079&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/111389/original/image-20160213-29172-4mxw6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1079&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/111389/original/image-20160213-29172-4mxw6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1079&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Justice Louis Brandeis (1856-1941).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Brandeisl.jpg">Harris & Ewing/Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Justice Louis Brandeis <a href="http://aroberts.us/2015/03/15/where-brandeis-got-sunlight-is-the-best-disinfectant/">famously opined</a> that “sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants,” and this claim figures centrally in American ideals of transparency. But it also obscures the actual mechanisms by which that metaphorical disinfecting takes place. </p>
<p>Scholars have recently <a href="http://csc.sagepub.com/content/14/1.toc">begun to grapple</a> with the limitations of “transparency” as a framework, both theoretically and practically.</p>
<p>There is, for example, the matter of impunity, the untouchability of very powerful actors even when their wrongdoing is public knowledge. This is seen, for example, in the fairly minimal <a href="http://www.salon.com/2006/03/14/prosecutions_convictions/">punishments</a> meted out after Abu Ghraib to military personnel low on the chain of command. </p>
<p>There is also the question of who, and what, actually gets revealed (or doesn’t) when the government makes itself transparent. Rather than showing government officials, these photos show only the targets of their actions, in circumstances of degradation and extreme vulnerability. </p>
<p>From the perspective of the DoD, the choice to release these relatively “benign” photos rather than other, allegedly more incriminating ones, is unsurprising. But the calculus behind the decision to release any photos is also worth considering. </p>
<p>The DoD fought tenaciously in defense of its position and, presumably, it could have continued to find ways to justify noncompliance with the court order. But, in the end, the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/06/us/politics/pentagon-photos-detainee-abuse.html">secretary of defense agreed to release these images</a>. This is a curious concession given that the Obama administration has <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/13/AR2009051301751.html">reneged on a promise to release interrogation photos in the past</a>, citing the danger that their content might pose to U.S. troops abroad. </p>
<p>This latest decision would seem to be a wager based on the nature of the photos and the relative ambivalence of the American public about such images and the practices they suggest. </p>
<p>But it also reflects the extent to which the costs of transparency are borne by the other individuals involved. </p>
<p>Yes, transparency has rendered the government’s actions visible. But it has also made the bodies of the detainees available to public inspection. The imperative that the government operate in the open has, in other words, been passed along to the detainees, who ensure its compliance with their own visibility according to terms they cannot control.</p>
<p>There is no indication that the people pictured in these photos authorized them to be released in this way. They have no authority to object, and the government has complied with the law by exercising yet another form of power over the detainees. </p>
<p>In this way, even the redactions function less to protect the privacy of the detainees and more to reaffirm their status as the property of a government that controls whether they are visible or not. </p>
<p>The argument for transparency in this instance derives much of its moral force from the assertion that Americans have not only a need but a right to know what the U.S. military is doing “in our name.” Indeed, this is the thesis of the ACLU-penned article in <em>Time.</em> </p>
<p>But such a formulation puts the emphasis on the symbolic injury that these detentions and this abuse have inflicted on Americans. And this, in turn, makes it easier to overlook the detainees whose mandated exposure is apparently required to remove the tarnish from our national identity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54518/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca A. Adelman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The ACLU describes the release of photos of DoD detainees as an important victory for the cause of transparency, but are they?Rebecca A. Adelman, Associate Professor - Department of Media Communication Studies, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/445762015-07-15T10:14:53Z2015-07-15T10:14:53ZHow the largest association of psychologists in the US colluded in torture<p>In November 2014, the Board of Directors of the American Psychological Association (APA) asked <a href="http://www.sidley.com/people/david-hoffman">David Hoffman</a>, a former federal prosecutor, to lead an independent review of allegations that the APA colluded with government officials to sanction the use of interrogation techniques tantamount to torture. </p>
<p>The APA asked Hoffman to investigate these allegations just weeks before the release of the Senate Intelligence Committee’s <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/12/09/world/cia-torture-report-document.html">report on the CIA’s use of torture</a>, a report that raised major questions about the participation of psychologists in interrogation sessions.</p>
<p>Hoffman was specifically asked to investigate questions about ethical guidelines issued by the APA in 2002 and 2005 that dictated when psychologists could ethically participate in national security interrogations. </p>
<p>Hoffman’s <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/07/09/us/document-report.html">report</a> was leaked on July 10 and confirmed many people’s (including my) worst suspicions.</p>
<p>Here, then, is what we now know – and here is my analysis of how the country’s biggest association of psychologists <a href="http://www.apa.org/independent-review/APA-FINAL-Report-7.2.15.pdf">could choose its</a> “ethics policy based on its goals of helping [the Department of Defense].” </p>
<h2>The APA and DOD: a special relationship</h2>
<p>Hoffman has confirmed that that officials at the APA colluded with the Department of Defense (DOD) as well as the CIA to allow psychologists to participate in interrogations from the beginning of the “war on terror” until Obama came into office in 2009 and rescinded authorization for enhanced interrogation techniques. </p>
<p>Although I have been working in medical ethics for 20 years, I first became aware of and alarmed by health care personnel’s participation in the use of torture a decade ago, when photos were leaked from the Iraqi prison of Abu Ghraib. </p>
<p>More specifically, this led me to study what medical students and graduate psychology students were learning about military medical ethics and their obligations as health professionals under the Geneva Convention. </p>
<p>It also prompted me to look at the close relationship between the Department of Defense (DOD) and the American Psychological Association. </p>
<h2>How the APA drafted its ethical guidelines</h2>
<p>Drafting policy and ethical guidelines for psychologists is one of the central tasks the APA performs. And to craft these statements and guidelines, the APA uses panels of psychologists. </p>
<p>The Hoffman report reveals that the collusion between the APA and government affected both the composition of panels designed to craft APA policy and the content of their proclamations. </p>
<p>These proclamations set APA policy and, in effect, dictate what is ethically permissible or not for psychologists. The Psychological Ethics and National Security (PENS) task force 2005 <a href="https://www.apa.org/pubs/info/reports/pens.pdf">report</a> – that fully gave permission to psychologists to participate in interrogations – is an example of this. </p>
<p>The PENS report was authored in partial secrecy and approved by a panel carefully selected by APA officials, the majority of whom had close ties to DOD. As Hoffman reveals, the PENS task force was “the result of close and confidential collaboration with certain Defense Department officials before, during, and after the task force met.”</p>
<p>The PENS report allowed psychologists to participate in interrogations if they adhered to US law, but they violated every international code of medical ethics. </p>
<p>The point is that the way the Bush administration crafted US law flew in the face of medical ethics, allowing for detainees to be tortured, for example, because they were not “<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/ref/international/24MEMO-GUIDE.html">prisoners of war</a>,” and therefore not protected by the Geneva Conventions. </p>
<h2>The APA didn’t change guidelines on interrogations until 2013</h2>
<p>The APA’s permissive ethical stance allowed psychologists to participate in interrogations, providing necessary cover for dubious so-called “enhanced techniques” to continue.</p>
<p>In this the APA stood alone among the major organizations for health professionals in the United States. By 2006, both the <a href="http://www.amednews.com/article/20060703/profession/307039957/7/">American Medical Association</a> and the <a href="http://www.psychiatry.org/file%20library/advocacy%20and%20newsroom/position%20statements/ps2006_interrogation.pdf">American Psychiatric Association</a> issued decrees prohibiting their members from participating in interrogations. </p>
<p>If the APA had done the same and prohibited psychologists from participating, harsh interrogations and torture would have come to a screeching halt because their presence, as health professionals, provided an air of legitimacy to interrogations. And this was needed (at least in part) to confer protection against future prosecutions of the interrogators. Any interrogators who were questioned could easily point to the psychologists then present to illustrate that their methods had to be safe and ethical. </p>
<p>In fact, the APA did not rescind the <a href="https://www.apa.org/pubs/info/reports/pens.pdf">2005 PENS report</a> until 2013. </p>
<p>And even then, there remained significant holes that still allowed psychologists to be present during interrogations.
The APA thwarted efforts to oppose unethical behavior and took active steps to protect the psychologists involved in the interrogation program from professional ethical complaints. </p>
<p>In fact, it was the APA’s ethics director, Stephen Behnke, who oversaw much of this effort. To top things off, unbeknownst to the APA board, Behnke himself reportedly received <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/11/us/psychologists-shielded-us-torture-program-report-finds.html?_r=0">a Pentagon contract</a> to help train interrogators. </p>
<p>And – as all of this was happening behind the scenes – the APA leadership was telling the APA general membership that the goal of the association’s standards was to protect the health and welfare of the prisoners at Guantanamo. </p>
<h2>Young psychologists aren’t learning military medical ethics</h2>
<p>How could this happen? </p>
<p>Part of the answer must lie in the fact that psychologists <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-ethics-lesson-for-psychologists-dont-participate-in-torture-39308">receive little training about the ethical duties</a> of health care personnel in military settings. Without that training, many of them simply didn’t know better. </p>
<p>In a <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2190/HS.44.3.j">paper</a> published last year, colleagues and I found that 74% of graduate students in psychology had received less than an hour of instruction on military medical ethics. </p>
<p>We also found that only one-third to one-half of students in these courses could correctly answer questions about when they would be required to disobey an unethical order, for instance, according to the Geneva Conventions. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.icrc.org/en/war-and-law/treaties-customary-law/geneva-conventions">The Geneva Conventions</a> are clear in stating that prisoners are required to give only their name, rank, branch of service and serial number to interrogators. Additionally, they should be given food, shelter and medical treatment and never humiliated, threatened or harmed in any way.</p>
<h2>The APA colluded with the DOD. Now what?</h2>
<p>In the wake of the Hoffman report, APA ethics director Steve Behnke <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/law/2015/jul/10/us-torture-doctors-psychologists-apa-prosecution">has gone</a> (whether voluntarily or not is not yet clear) and, in <a href="http://www.apa.org/news/press/releases/2015/07/independent-review-release.aspx">an official statement</a>, the organization has acknowledged the “deeply disturbing findings” that were “a failure to live up to our core values” and has outlined various recommendations. </p>
<p>The APA has also announced the departure of <a href="http://www.apa.org/news/press/releases/2015/07/retirements-resignation.aspx">three other staff members</a>: CEO Norman Anderson, Deputy CEO Michael Honaker, and the Executive Director for Public and Member Communications Rhea Farberman.</p>
<p>More, however, is to be done. </p>
<p>The APA should also publicly praise those dissident psychologists who have over the last decade steadfastly protested APA’s support of interrogations and torture – despite the chiding they received from the APA administration. </p>
<p>Additionally, the APA ought to call for significant investment in in ethics education for practicing psychologists as well as psychology trainees. </p>
<p>The fact that the United States resorted to torturing prisoners – many of whom are innocent, or in the words of the Senate Report on torture, “wrongfully detained” – will likely go down as one of our country’s most egregious ethical lapses. The fact that a major health care association colluded in this lapse is unconscionable.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/44576/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>J. Wesley Boyd does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The American Psychological Association’s collusion in one the most egregious ethical lapses in our nation’s history is unconscionable.J. Wesley Boyd, Assistant Clinical Professor of Psychiatry, Harvard Medical School; Assistant Clinical Professor of Psychiatry, Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.