tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/dominic-perrottet-110946/articlesDominic Perrottet – The Conversation2023-03-24T20:55:56Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2023322023-03-24T20:55:56Z2023-03-24T20:55:56ZFinal NSW Newspoll gives Labor a thumping lead; federal Labor’s lead widens<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517466/original/file-20230324-1282-iy65b1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Justin Lloyd/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The New South Wales state election is today. Polls close at 6pm AEDT. Votes cast on election day should be counted quickly, but large pre-poll booths are likely to take until late at night or next week.</p>
<p>ABC elections analyst <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/nsw2023-pre-poll-and-postal-vote-application-rates-by-district/">Antony Green</a> said that as of Friday, 28% of enrolled voters had voted early in-person and a further 10% had applied for a postal vote. All election day votes, some postals and some early votes will be counted by the 10:30pm close of counting on Saturday night. Counting will not resume until Monday.</p>
<p>The final NSW Newspoll, conducted March 18-23 from a sample of 1,205, gave Labor a 54.5-45.5 lead, a 2.5-point gain for Labor since the late February NSW Newspoll. Primary votes were 38% Labor (up two), 35% Coalition (down two), 11% Greens (down one) and 16% for all Others (up one).</p>
<p>Liberal Premier Dominic Perrottet’s net approval slumped 12 points to -3, while Labor leader Chris Minns’ net approval improved six points to +14. Minns led Perrottet as better premier by 41-39, reversing a Perrottet lead of 43-33 in February. Newspoll figures are from <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/03/24/newspoll-54-5-45-5-to-labor-in-nsw/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>In Monday’s Resolve poll and two polls from Freshwater and Morgan (below), Labor had between 52.5% and 53.5% on a two party count – this would probably not be enough for a Labor majority in the lower house. But <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/03/nsw-lower-house-2023-final-days-rolling.html">analyst Kevin Bonham’s model</a> gives Labor just enough for a one-seat majority (47 of the 93 seats) if Newspoll is right.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-election-preview-labor-likely-to-fall-short-of-a-majority-which-could-result-in-hung-parliament-201289">NSW election preview: Labor likely to fall short of a majority, which could result in hung parliament</a>
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<p>Cost of living has been rated the most important issue in polls, and <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/03/22/new-south-wales-election-minus-three-days-2/">The Poll Bludger reported</a> that last Monday’s NSW Resolve poll gave Labor a 35-29 lead over the Coalition on this issue.</p>
<p>Under optional preferential voting that is used in NSW, a single “1” vote is formal. The <a href="https://twitter.com/LiberalNSW/status/1638291515545120769">Liberals are urging people</a> to just vote 1 Liberal. I am sceptical of this strategy, because those who listen to this message are more likely to be voters for other right-wing minor parties than the Greens, and at the 2019 election the exhaust rate among right-wing minors was far higher than for the Greens.</p>
<h2>NSW Freshwater poll: Labor retains 53-47 lead</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/03/22/new-south-wales-election-minus-three-days-2/">Poll Bludger</a> reported that a NSW Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted March 19-21 from a sample of 1,100, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, unchanged since late February. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (steady), 37% Labor (down two), 10% Greens (steady) and 16% for all Others (up two). Perrottet’s lead as preferred premier narrowed from 46-34 to 45-40.</p>
<h2>NSW Morgan poll: Labor had 53.5-46.5 lead in mid-March</h2>
<p>A NSW <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9208-roy-morgan-sms-survey-on-nsw-voting-intention-march-2023">Morgan SMS poll</a>, conducted March 10-14 from a sample of 1,013, gave Labor a 53.5-46.5 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since late February. Primary votes were 34% Coalition (up 1.5), 34% Labor (up 0.5), 13% Greens (up two), 2% One Nation (down 6.5) and 17% for all Others (up 2.5).</p>
<p>Previous Morgan NSW polls had assumed that One Nation would contest all 93 lower house seats, and so their slump in this poll is explained by them only contesting 17 seats.</p>
<p>In forced choice questions, Minns’ lead over Perrottet as better premier narrowed from 54-46 to 52-48, while Perrottet had a 51-49 disapproval rating, a reversal of a 53-47 approval in late February.</p>
<h2>Federal Resolve poll: Labor increases massive lead</h2>
<p>A federal <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-takes-small-lead-on-national-security-amid-aukus-subs-deal-20230320-p5ctn9.html">Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted March 12-16 from a sample of 1,600, gave Labor 39% of the primary vote (down one since February), the Coalition 30% (down one), the Greens 13% (up three), One Nation 5% (steady), the UAP 1% (steady), independents 9% (steady) and others 2% (steady).</p>
<p>No two party estimate was provided, but applying 2022 election preference flows to this poll gives Labor about a 59-41 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since February. Resolve has been the most pro-Labor pollster since the 2022 election.</p>
<p>By 55-31, <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/03/22/federal-polls-resolve-essential-and-more-open-thread/">voters gave</a> Anthony Albanese a good rating (56-30 in February). Peter Dutton’s ratings were 43-32 poor (44-29 previously). Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 51-22 (55-23 previously).</p>
<p>In the wake of the AUKUS deal, Labor gained a 35-32 lead over the Liberals on national security, after the Liberals led by 35-32 in February. But Labor’s lead on economic management slid to 33-32 from 36-32, and their lead on keeping the cost of living low dropped to 29-22 from 33-24.</p>
<p>Asked about uses of <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/health-crisis-yes-home-deposit-not-so-much-what-voters-think-super-should-be-used-for-20230321-p5ctun.html?btis=">super other than for retirement</a>, 68% supported life-saving medical treatment, 67% palliative care and 58% serious financial distress, but only 37% a deposit for a first home. By 45-24, voters agreed with defining super as for retirement, although it could be accessed in extreme circumstances.</p>
<h2>Labor also extends lead in federal Essential and Morgan polls</h2>
<p>In Essential’s <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">two party measure</a> that includes undecided, Labor led by 52-43 in a poll conducted before March 21 from a sample of 1,124; they led by 49-44 two weeks ago. Primary votes were 34% Labor (up two), 31% Coalition (down one), 14% Greens (up two), 5% One Nation (down two), 2% UAP (steady), 9% for all Others (up one) and 5% undecided (down two).</p>
<p>Support for the Indigenous Voice to <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/21-march-2023">parliament dropped</a> to 59-41 from 65-35 in February.</p>
<p>On the AUKUS deal, 40% said it would make Australia more secure (down four since November 2022), 39% no difference (steady) and 21% less secure (up five). When told the purchase cost of the nuclear submarines, 26% said they were worth it, 27% would like the subs but didn’t think they were worth the money, and 28% did not want the subs.</p>
<p>Morgan’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/">weekly federal poll</a> gave Labor a 58-42 lead (56.5-43.5 last week, 54.5-45.5 two weeks ago). Primary votes were 37.5% Labor, 32% Coalition, 13% Greens and 17.5% for all Others. This poll was conducted March 13-19.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202332/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The final NSW election polls vary on the predicted outcome, but they all point to a Labor win.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2023622023-03-22T07:12:51Z2023-03-22T07:12:51ZWord from The Hill: Reactions to AUKUS, next steps on the Voice, NSW election<p>As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation’s politics team.</p>
<p>In this podcast Michelle and politics + society editor Amanda Dunn canvass the reactions, inside and outside Labor, to the AUKUS submarine agreement; the government and Coalition reaching a deal on the Voice to Parliament referendum machinery bill; and Saturday’s NSW election, with Labor leading in the polls and the fate of teal candidates of special interest.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202362/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Chief Political Correspondant Michelle Grattan and Politics + Society editor Amanda Dunn discuss the newsMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2011742023-03-20T19:23:06Z2023-03-20T19:23:06ZLabor is odds-on for a narrow victory in NSW election, but it is far from a sure bet<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516234/original/file-20230320-24-gb9640.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bianca de Marchi/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A gambler would probably feel the odds favour a <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/nsw-politics/nsw-election-sworn-in-government-4578691">Labor win</a> at the upcoming New South Wales election. But, as Scott Morrison <a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrison-hails-miracle-as-coalition-snatches-unexpected-victory-117375">proved in 2019</a>, underdog status is prized in politics. Favouritism brings its own challenges, especially when the game takes an unanticipated twist. In this setting, the wide path to victory can quickly become a narrow track to defeat.</p>
<p>NSW voters go to the booths on March 25 with Premier Dominic Perrottet seeking to lock in 16 years of Liberal-National incumbency. The Labor opposition under Chris Minns is <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-slides-in-a-federal-newspoll-nsw-polls-give-labor-a-modest-lead-200734">polling well</a>. Despite this, Perrottet isn’t playing to type.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-resolve-poll-has-narrow-lead-for-labor-five-days-before-election-201944">NSW Resolve poll has narrow lead for Labor five days before election</a>
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<p>This campaign is recasting the state’s typically combative political culture. Peace has broken out. Major campaign promises, from both sides, are converging on a shared political centre. Be it <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/tolls-and-trains-sydney-transport-front-and-centre-for-minns-and-perrottet-20230212-p5cjvm.html">toll relief</a>, health infrastructure, energy vouchers or other rebates, only strategic nuances separate the two.</p>
<p>Funding commitments, too, are broadly on par. The Coalition’s “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/what-happened-to-the-bear-pit-this-nsw-election-is-a-bipartisan-love-in-20230310-p5cr3l.html">future fund</a>” promises education and housing co-investment to individuals, while Labor’s “education future fund” directly targets the schools system.</p>
<p>On public sector wages, neither side is promising increases. Both leaders will thin the ranks and freeze the pay of senior public servants. And Perrottet has <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/perrottet-rules-out-future-privatisation-in-major-coalition-shift-20230228-p5co7m.html">ruled out further privatisation</a>, ending nearly a decade of “asset recycling” and bringing the Coalition into line with Labor.</p>
<p>With commonality abounding, real difference is emerging on unanticipated terrain. The NSW cabinet’s decision to introduce <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-06/nsw-gambling-reform-agreement/101934094">cashless gaming</a> within five years is providing Perrottet a moral profile that typically takes time for a new leader to build. It also acts as a reset following revelations of his <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/not-above-the-law-nsw-premier-dominic-perrottet-to-be-referred-to-police-after-nazi-costume-revelation/ehlpplxts">Nazi costume</a> choice at his 21st birthday.</p>
<p>In contrast, Labor won’t back gambling reform, seemingly untroubled by the issue from a campaign standpoint. These divergent stances could weigh on undecided voters wondering what kind of a premier Minns might be. Would he stand up to powerful lobbyists? It’s not an insignificant question given <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-18/nsw-former-mps-charged-eddie-obeid-joe-tripodi-tony-kelly/101248938">Labor’s past</a> in NSW. It may be a factor in marginal electorates.</p>
<p>Several seats in western Sydney are shaping as tight contests. With roughly <a href="https://www.westernsydney.edu.au/content/dam/digital/images/centre-for-western-sydney/CfWS-Western-Sydney-Votes-2023.pdf">one-third of total votes</a> cast at the election to be lodged in Sydney’s west, there is no path to victory for the Coalition or Labor without the region’s support.</p>
<p>East Hills, which the Liberals hold by just 0.1%, is a campaign focal point. In an announcement confined almost entirely to <a href="https://www.facebook.com/WendyLindsayforEastHills/">social media</a>, the premier committed $1.3 billion to construct a hospital in the electorate.</p>
<p>Ordinarily, a hospital pledge would be a widely promoted commitment. Keeping it local may be a deliberate strategy to emulate isolated success at last year’s federal election. In the western Sydney seat of Lindsay, the federal Liberals <a href="https://www.westernsydney.edu.au/content/dam/digital/images/centre-for-western-sydney/Western-Sydney-Votes-2022-The-Results-CfWS.pdf">bucked the national trend</a> and secured a positive swing. Hyper-local, street-by-street campaigning fuelled that unexpected surge.</p>
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<p>Lindsay overlays the marginal NSW seat of Penrith, where <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/stuart-ayres-will-return-to-cabinet-if-coalition-wins-election-20230124-p5cf2j.html">former minister</a> Stuart Ayres is defending a margin of just 0.6%. Here, too, the Liberals are upending wider campaign tactics for a local pitch, with the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-18/gladys-berejiklian-election-showing-could-help-hinder-liberals/102106588">help of former premier</a> Gladys Berejiklian.</p>
<p>Continuing his moral stance, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/perrottet-and-minns-square-off-in-election-debate-20230315-p5cs78.html">Perrottet endorsed</a> the Independent Commission of Corruption’s investigation of her and continues to disavow her it’s “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/perrottet-pledges-to-publish-data-to-track-election-promise-spending-20230309-p5cqur.html">not illegal</a>” rationale for pork-barrelling.</p>
<p>Other factors ramp up the unpredictability. The new seat of Leppington – nominally Labor (1.7%) – takes in many highly mortgaged areas of Campbelltown, Liverpool and surrounds. The pace of housing development has far <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/there-s-50-000-voters-in-this-new-sydney-seat-this-is-what-they-want-20230310-p5cr0n.html">eclipsed the construction</a> of education, health and transport links.</p>
<p>Similar growing pains are evident in electorates like Riverstone, where existing services are <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/here-s-what-s-missing-everything-no-schools-and-no-services-but-houses-keep-going-up-20221012-p5bp7o.html">unable to cope</a> with surging housing estates. Labor is, accordingly, promising to address these challenges, committing to a range of investments such as a <a href="https://www.nswlabor.org.au/sydney_s_north_west_deserves_a_full_service_public_hospital">$700 million hospital</a> for Rouse Hill.</p>
<p>The retirement of several senior Liberal members brings additional opportunities for Labor in key seats. Kevin Connolly in Riverstone and Geoff Lee in Parramatta are departing, along with cabinet members David Elliott, Brad Hazzard and Rob Stokes.</p>
<p>Stokes’ seat of Pittwater is among a clutch of northern Sydney electorates facing challenges by independent candidates. However, a repeat of the federal “<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-big-teal-steal-independent-candidates-rock-the-liberal-vote-183024">teal wave</a>” is unlikely, given the optional flow of preferences, and <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/nsw-budget-puts-women-at-heart-of-investment-165-billion-support">mitigating budget measures</a> from Treasurer Matt Kean with a focus on women and sustainability.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-antony-green-professor-andy-marks-and-ashleigh-raper-on-the-nsw-election-201957">Politics with Michelle Grattan: Antony Green, Professor Andy Marks and Ashleigh Raper on the NSW election</a>
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<p>In the regions, the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-18/mining-agriculture-and-jobs-in-upper-hunter-election/102097180">transition to clean energy</a> is challenging the Nationals’ hold on the Upper Hunter, while the retirement of Liberal Shelley Hancock has put the seat of South Coast in the frame for Labor. And the Nationals’ grip on the bellwether electorate of Monaro will be closely watched, with former Labor representative <a href="https://citynews.com.au/2023/whans-number-one-on-the-monaro-ballot-paper/">Steve Whan</a> making a comeback.</p>
<p>This is an unusual election. Conventional analysis – and the bookies – suggest a Labor win, likely in minority government. But the Coalition are rolling the dice in narrowly targeted areas and on atypical issues. </p>
<p>While the heat has gone out of NSW politics, many voters will struggle to make sense of the peace. Others are understandably sceptical it will last.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201174/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andy Marks does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite being in power for 12 years, Dominic Perrottet’s government is making an unusual pitch for re-election and giving Chris Minns’ Labor opposition a run for its money.Andy Marks, Pro Vice-Chancellor, Strategy, Government and Alliances, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2019442023-03-20T00:31:47Z2023-03-20T00:31:47ZNSW Resolve poll has narrow lead for Labor five days before election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516212/original/file-20230319-26-djw31z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Himbrechts/Paul Braven/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The New South Wales state election will be held on Saturday. I had a preview of both the lower and upper houses last week.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-election-preview-labor-likely-to-fall-short-of-a-majority-which-could-result-in-hung-parliament-201289">NSW election preview: Labor likely to fall short of a majority, which could result in hung parliament</a>
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<p>A <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/perrottet-narrowing-tight-contest-but-labor-tipped-to-sweep-to-power-20230319-p5ctf7.html">Resolve poll</a> for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted March 14-19 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Coalition 38% of the primary vote (up six since late February), Labor 38% (steady), the Greens 8% (down three), independents 8% (down five) and others 8% (up one).</p>
<p>No explicit two party estimate was given, but the SMH article talks about a 4.5% swing to Labor from the 2019 election, implying a 52.5-47.5 lead for Labor; this would be a 3.5% gain for the Coalition since the late February Resolve poll.</p>
<p>As I have predicted previously, the use of actual ballot papers in this poll sharply reduced independent support. Not every seat has strong independent candidates.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-slides-in-a-federal-newspoll-nsw-polls-give-labor-a-modest-lead-200734">Labor slides in a federal Newspoll; NSW polls give Labor a modest lead</a>
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<p>In late February, Resolve was a pro-Labor outlier, with Newspoll, Freshwater and Morgan NSW polls giving Labor between 52 and 53% two party. Since Labor won the May 2022 federal election, Resolve has usually had better results for state and federal Labor than other polls.</p>
<p>As my preview article suggested, Labor would probably not win a lower house majority if this poll were replicated on election day, and a hung parliament would be a strong chance.</p>
<p>Incumbent Liberal Dominic Perrottet led Labor leader Chris Minns by 40-34 as preferred premier (38-34 in late February). Perrottet’s net good rating improved 15 points to +20, with 52% rating his performance good and 32% poor. Minns’ net good rating also improved five points to +20.</p>
<h2>AUKUS and defence federal Resolve questions</h2>
<p>A federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers was conducted March 12-16 from a sample of 1,600. So far only questions on AUKUS and defence have been released.</p>
<p>By 50-16, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-accept-case-for-nuclear-submarines-but-yet-to-be-convinced-of-368b-plan-20230317-p5csz9.html">voters supported</a> the specific AUKUS deal to buy nuclear submarines. On generic support for nuclear submarines, 25% said they actively supported them (up three since November 2021), 39% said they didn’t have strong feelings, but nuclear submarines were acceptable (up five), and 17% were opposed (down three).</p>
<p>On defence spending, 39% said we should spend more than our current 2% of GDP on defence, 31% the same amount and 9% less or nothing. By 65-8, respondents thought Taiwan was an independent state over being part of China. </p>
<p>On threats to Australia, 52% thought Russia and/or China are a threat, but one that can be managed with careful relationships over time (up three since January), 28% that they are a major threat that will need to be confronted soon (down three) and 6% they are not a threat at all (down one).</p>
<h2>Additional Newspoll question: Voice support drops</h2>
<p>In the last federal Newspoll that I <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-slides-in-a-federal-newspoll-nsw-polls-give-labor-a-modest-lead-200734">covered two weeks ago</a>, an additional question, reported by <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/03/08/polls-essential-research-voice-polling-jws-research-issues-survey-open-thread/">The Poll Bludger</a>, had 53% supporting the Indigenous Voice to parliament (down three since the early February Newspoll) and 38% opposed (up one).</p>
<h2>Early March Essential poll</h2>
<p>In the federal <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/07-march-2023">Essential poll</a>, conducted before March 7 from a sample of 1,141, voters were asked to rate Albanese and Dutton from 0 to 10. Ratings of 0-3 were counted as poor, 4-6 as neutral and 7-10 as positive. Albanese had a 40-27 positive rating (47-22 in February), while Dutton was at 33-26 negative (35-26 previously).</p>
<p>By 50-19, voters supported the super changes that would limit tax concessions for those with over $3 million in super. By 42-22, voters supported cancelling the stage three tax cuts when told they disproportionately benefit those earning incomes over $180,000. </p>
<p>By 70-23, voters did not think it likely they would have over $3 million in super when they retired. By 51-49, voters said they were financially struggling rather than secure (53-47 in February). By 51-49, they thought they would be struggling when they retire.</p>
<h2>WA poll: McGowan’s ratings slump but are still high</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/03/14/miscellany-by-elections-and-wa-leadership-poll-open-thread/">Poll Bludger</a> reported on March 14 that a Painted Dog Western Australian poll of 1,052 respondents gave Labor Premier Mark McGowan a 63% approval rating (down seven since October), and a 24% disapproval (up six). New Liberal leader Libby Mettam had a 24% approval rating, 18% disapproval.</p>
<h2>NT Labor easily holds Arafura at byelection</h2>
<p>A byelection in the Northern Territory occurred on Saturday in the NT seat of Arafura owing to the death of the previous Labor member. Labor <a href="https://ntec.nt.gov.au/elections/current-elections/2023-division-of-arafura-by-election/results">defeated the</a> Country Liberal Party (CLP) by an emphatic 68.9-31.1 (53.6-46.4 at the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt/2020/guide/araf">2020 NT election</a>). Primary votes were 66.3% Labor, 29.6% CLP and 4.1% Federation Party.</p>
<p>Arafura has a large Indigenous population, and has been held by Labor since its creation in 1983, except for one term in 2012, when the CLP gained it. Labor is the incumbent NT government, and this is a great result for a government in a government-held seat at a byelection.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201944/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Polls show the race to form the next state government in NSW has tightened in recent weeks.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2019572023-03-16T08:28:22Z2023-03-16T08:28:22ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Antony Green, Professor Andy Marks and Ashleigh Raper on the NSW election<p>Voters in New South Wales are heading to the polling booths on March 25. For both Premier Dominic Perrottet and Labor leader Chris Minns, it is their first election as leader. The Coalition government has held power since 2011. Labor needs to gain a net nine seats to form majority government. If Labor wins, the party will be in power in every state and territory except Tasmania.</p>
<p>There are 10 seats in this election that are on a margin of less than 6%, including Minns’ seat of Kogarah on 0.1%. In several contests the fate of “teal’ candidates will be watched. Spending and donation caps, and optional preferential voting make the teals’ path to victory more difficult than in the federal election. </p>
<p>In this podcast, Michelle Grattan speaks with Antony Green, the ABC’s election analyst, Professor Andy Marks, from the University of Western Sydney, and Ashleigh Raper, the ABC’s NSW state political reporter.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201957/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In this podcast, Michelle Grattan canvasses the New South Wales election with the ABC's chief election analyst Antony Green, Professor Andy Marks from the Western Sydney University, and the ABC's NSW state political reporter Ashleigh RaperMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2016622023-03-14T19:05:40Z2023-03-14T19:05:40ZPerrottet’s child trust fund policy dusts off an idea last tried by UK Labour<p>The “Kids Future Fund” promised by NSW’s Premier Dominic Perrottet if his government is re-elected on March 25 is an idea discussed by social policy experts since the 1990s but rarely embraced by politicians.</p>
<p>Britain’s Blair Labour government introduced a similar policy in the early 2000s but it lasted just eight years before being scrapped as part of budget cutbacks. </p>
<p>Perrottet’s <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/perrottet-promises-major-future-fund-for-children-at-liberal-launch-20230312-p5crds.html">promise</a> is to put $400 into a trust fund for every child aged up to 10 years old (and then for every child born). The government will then match contributions made by the child’s parents (or grandparents) up to $400 a year until the child turns 18. </p>
<p>The trust account can only be accessed after age 18, for two purposes only: to help buy a home; or for education, including tuition fees, learning materials, computers and tools needed to get a qualification.</p>
<p>The estimated cost to the NSW budget over the next four years will be A$850 million.</p>
<p>The Perottet government says this could mean every child born in NSW from this year could have, at age 18, a trust fund worth about $28,500. But this depends on co-contributions and a generous rate of interest. It assumes a 7% return, though the announced policy is that the state government will guarantee a 4% return. </p>
<p>The government’s direct contributions will be:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>$200 a year to any family receiving Family Tax Benefit A (normally available to families with one child earning up to <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/income-test-for-family-tax-benefit-part?context=22151">$108,892</a> a year, or more for larger families)</p></li>
<li><p>up to $200 more to recipients of Family Tax Benefit A, if matched by the parents (or grandparents) </p></li>
<li><p>up to $400 a year for everyone else, if matched.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Parents will be allowed to contribute up to $1,000 a year (presumably to take advantage of the interest rates). Contributions can be made after age 18, but won’t be matched. </p>
<p>Those who only get $200 a year will, using the same formula as the government, have a fund worth a little more than $7,000. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/other-australians-dont-earn-what-you-think-59-538-is-typical-162251">Other Australians don't earn what you think. $59,538, is typical</a>
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<h2>Origins of asset-based social policy</h2>
<p>The idea of “trust funds” for children has become more popular since the 1990s, and is most associated with the work of US social researcher <a href="https://brownschool.wustl.edu/Faculty-and-Research/Pages/Michael-Sherraden.aspx">Michael Sherraden</a>. </p>
<p>As the <a href="https://oxfordre.com/socialwork/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780199975839.001.0001/acrefore-9780199975839-e-25;jsessionid=2392C83833A7B4B57A879F516A740C01">Encyclopedia of Social Work</a> puts it, the idea is to build assets complementary to traditional social policy based on income. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“In fact, asset-based policy with large public subsidies already existed (and still exists) in the United States. But the policy is regressive, benefiting the rich far more than the poor. The goal should be a universal, progressive, and lifelong asset-based policy. One promising pathway may be child development accounts (CDAs) beginning at birth, with greater public deposits for the poorest children. If all children had an account, then eventually this could grow into a universal public policy across the life course.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>That this idea emerged in the US may reflect the fact wealth there is more unequally distributed than in most other OECD nations. The least wealthy 60% of Americans own just 3% of total wealth, compared with 17% in Australia. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-top-1-of-income-earners-is-an-increasingly-entrenched-elite-170445">Our top 1% of income earners is an increasingly entrenched elite</a>
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<h2>Britain’s Child Trust Fund</h2>
<p>There have been a few experimental programs in Canada and the US. But the program most similar to the NSW government’s proposal is the UK’s Child Trust Fund, introduced by the Blair Labour government in 2003. </p>
<p>This provided every child born after August 2002 with an endowment at birth of £250 and an extra £250 for children in families with household income less than £14,495 (the threshold for receiving the full Child Tax Credit, the UK’s <a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/RP03-90/RP03-90.pdf">equivalent of the Family Tax Benefit</a>). </p>
<p>In 2006 the UK government announced all eligible children would receive a further £250 at age seven, and those from lower-income families an extra £250 on top of that. </p>
<p>All returns were tax-free, including interest payments and capital gains. Parents could add up to £1,200. Except for a few emergency situations, funds could be withdrawn only after a child turned 18. There were no restrictions on use. </p>
<p>More than <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/thousands-of-teenagers-missing-out-on-child-trust-fund-cash">6 million</a> child trust funds were opened between 2003 and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/money/2010/may/24/child-trust-funds-scrapped">2011</a>, when the scheme was closed to new recipients by the government headed by David Cameron.</p>
<p>Recipients began to access funds in 2020. It remains unclear if the scheme <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/thousands-of-teenagers-missing-out-on-child-trust-fund-cash">benefited those it was meant to help</a>. As many as 1 million accounts have been classed as “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/aug/25/child-trust-fund-savings-lost-money-claim">addressee gone away</a>”. Those from poorer families are the most likely to be unaware they have a trust fund.</p>
<h2>Issues and challenges</h2>
<p>This highlights the greatest uncertainty about the benefits of the Perottet government’s proposal. How long will it last?</p>
<p>Another criticism is that the money could be better spent on families with children now rather than in the future. To be fair, however, the Perottet government is also promising measures including a full year of free preschool, five days a week, for every child.</p>
<p>But important details are lacking. For example, it appears the plan is to hold the money in some form of government-controlled account, with the funds “<a href="https://nswliberal.org.au/kids-future-fund">being invested</a>”. With the UK scheme, accounts simply had to be with an approved financial institution. If the accounts are run by the NSW government, will they count as public assets?</p>
<p>The NSW scheme presumably will not involve tax-free status, since only the federal government has this power.</p>
<p>And even with the contribution paid to families receiving Family Tax Benefit, it is still clearly not as progressive as the UK scheme – where low-income families received deposits twice as much as higher-income families – or as beneficial as the original US proposals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201662/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Whiteford receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is a member of the Economic Inclusion Advisory Committee.</span></em></p>Important details are lacking in how the Perrottet government’s promise of a ‘Kids Future Fund’ will work. Here’s what we know.Peter Whiteford, Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1993822023-02-08T00:56:09Z2023-02-08T00:56:09ZNSW pokies reforms will do much to limit problem gambling and money laundering<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508713/original/file-20230207-25-3v9dap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bianca de Marchi/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The New South Wales government has embraced <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/pokies-to-be-cashless-2028-under-historic-changes">a sweeping set of reforms</a> to the state’s massive poker machine business. These reforms are centred on a “cashless gaming” system linked to pre-commitment. This system will require those who wish to use pokies in NSW to register for an account, provide high-integrity ID, set a limit for their pokie losses, and link this to a personal bank account. </p>
<h2>Why is this needed?</h2>
<p>NSW is effectively the heartland of Australia’s pokie business. In 2022, the 89,000 poker machines in NSW’s clubs and pubs are <a href="https://www.liquorandgaming.nsw.gov.au/resources/gaming-machine-data">expected to rake in A$7.5 billion</a>. </p>
<p>Much of this money comes from areas of significant disadvantage. In western and south-western Sydney, the local government areas of Fairfield and Canterbury-Bankstown, for example, are <a href="https://www.liquorandgaming.nsw.gov.au/resources/gaming-machine-data">on track</a> to contribute over $1.2 billion of that alone, or an average of $2,785 per adult.</p>
<p>Pokies, or gaming machines, are now clearly recognised as Australia’s most harmful gambling form. <a href="https://akjournals.com/view/journals/2006/aop/article-10.1556-2006.2022.00083/article-10.1556-2006.2022.00083.xml#B62">A recent research paper</a> calculates that pokies are responsible for between 52% and 57% of Australia’s serious gambling harm. Pokies in pubs and clubs are also responsible for 51% of gambling losses overall – $13 billion per year. </p>
<p>Other gambling forms lag far behind this distressing calculus. Wagering on races and on sports, for example, contributes between 20% and 25% of the gambling harm total.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1622530870346416129"}"></div></p>
<h2>What does pre-commitment do?</h2>
<p>Pre-commitment involves a requirement that every person who registers for an account to use pokies in NSW must set a personal limit on their pokie losses, tied to a certain period of time – a day, week, month or year. Limits may be lowered at any time, but only increased once every seven days. </p>
<p>The Tasmanian government <a href="https://www.premier.tas.gov.au/site_resources_2015/additional_releases/nation-leading-card-based-gaming-with-pre-commitment-a-first-in-tasmania">recently announced</a> it would roll out such a system from 2024. In Tasmania, there will be pre-set limits. These are $100 per day, $500 per month, and $5,000 per year. </p>
<p>The NSW proposals do not include any pre-set limits, although this is open to consideration. An expert working group and multi-departmental taskforce will fine-tune multiple aspects of the proposal. </p>
<p>In any event, people need to be supported via the system software and venue staff to set reasonable limits. Staff need training and support to do this, and protection from venue managers pushing for maximum profits. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/governments-new-gambling-taglines-are-a-start-but-go-nowhere-near-far-enough-193716">Government's new gambling taglines are a start, but go nowhere near far enough</a>
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<p>Cashless systems, tied to a single bank account and requiring a high standard of identification, will make money laundering via pokies very difficult. The digital trail will ensure any suspicious activity can be red-flagged by law enforcement authorities. Subject to a warrant, police can identify and investigate data for individuals concerned. </p>
<p>This will be the only way such data can be used. Neither government nor venues will have access. Individuals will be able to see their own records. This of itself is an important harm-minimisation initiative.</p>
<p>A cashless system on its own won’t help people with harmful gambling habits better manage, or stop, their gambling. NSW Opposition Leader <a href="https://thelatch.com.au/cashless-gaming-nsw/">Chris Minns</a> has repeatedly asserted that cashless gaming will lead to more problems. He has referred to Victorian research that he claims demonstrates this. </p>
<p>However, the <a href="https://responsiblegambling.vic.gov.au/resources/publications/what-is-the-impact-of-cashless-gaming-on-gambling-behaviour-and-harm-1021/">research in question</a> was focused on moving to cashless gaming on its own, in the context of Victorian regulators permitting “tokenisation” of gambling credits. It did not consider the merits of linking pre-commitment to such systems. Indeed, the report found: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Many of the benefits of cashless gaming have been conflated with the benefits of other gambling harm-minimisation tools (e.g. player tracking, pre-commitment effects have been confused with the effects of cashless gaming).</p>
</blockquote>
<p>However, linking pre-commitment and a cashless system will be a major step towards reducing gambling harm and eliminating this form of money laundering.
The system will also require regular breaks in pokie use (for example, a 15-minute break after 90 minutes of use). We know from the first round of tobacco restrictions some years ago that taking a break allows time for reflection. When people are “in the zone” on a poker machine, <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691160887/addiction-by-design">their rationality is suspended</a>. But away from the machine, reality has a chance of intervening.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508735/original/file-20230207-15-bzyzdq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508735/original/file-20230207-15-bzyzdq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508735/original/file-20230207-15-bzyzdq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508735/original/file-20230207-15-bzyzdq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508735/original/file-20230207-15-bzyzdq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508735/original/file-20230207-15-bzyzdq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508735/original/file-20230207-15-bzyzdq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Being forced to take a break from pokie playing is an important circuit-breaker for problem gambling.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Pre-commitment, in effect, <a href="https://apo.org.au/node/105516">gives people a new tool</a> to manage their gambling. It’s important to remember that even those suffering under the influence of a serious gambling addiction have lucid moments – away from the machines. </p>
<p>The new system will allow people to give effect to their best intentions, including includes those who wish to stop gambling. The new system will be linked to a statewide self-exclusion register, meaning those who wish to self-exclude can do so effectively for the first time. This is a major breakthrough in itself.</p>
<p>If the system is “future proofed”, as it should be, it must have capacity to incorporate regular reminders of how much the user has lost over their sessions of pokie use. Where gambling activity demonstrates a likely pattern consistent with increasing harm, that should be flagged, and players should be sent an automated text or email suggesting avenues for assistance. </p>
<p>Regular statements of activity need to be available (as with online gambling) and tailored warning messages may be much more effective than bland requests to “gamble responsibly”. All of these should be available via this system.</p>
<p>There is also $350 million on offer to encourage clubs to diversify their revenue sources and to provide incentives to join the rollout of the new system. <a href="https://sydneyuniversitypress.com.au/products/78656">Large clubs in NSW</a> often rely on poker machines <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/it-fundamentally-changed-the-social-fabric-of-nsw-how-clubs-got-hooked-on-pokies-20221110-p5bx6p.html">for 80% or more</a> of their total revenue. This is a major reason clubs are reluctant to embrace reform.</p>
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<h2>Old machines need to be replaced</h2>
<p>The new system is to be rolled out over a five-year time-frame. This is almost certainly longer than needed. The majority of pokies in NSW can be retrofitted with hardware and software to make the system work as intended. </p>
<p>However, there are 30,000 or so machines that are too old. This will include machines that <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-16/nsw-labor-gambling-reform-policy-trial-cashless-gambling-/101859262">continue to allow $10,000</a> to be inserted at once – perfect for money laundering. Such machines need to be replaced as a high priority. Unless this is achieved quickly, they will be magnets for money laundering’s last hurrah through pokies.</p>
<p>Pokies in NSW are all linked by a statewide monitoring system. This is used mostly to protect revenue, but can be enhanced as necessary to incorporate the proposed system.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/pubs-and-clubs-your-friendly-neighbourhood-money-laundering-service-thanks-to-86-640-pokies-193312">Pubs and clubs – your friendly neighbourhood money-laundering service, thanks to 86,640 pokies</a>
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<h2>So … will it work?</h2>
<p>The technical issues are serious, but not overly difficult. Victoria has been running a <a href="https://www.justice.vic.gov.au/safer-communities/gambling/evaluation-of-yourplay-final-report">voluntary pre-commitment system</a> for years without technical problems. Unfortunately, because it’s voluntary, it is little used. </p>
<p>A universal system is far preferable. <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26537997/">Strong evidence from Norway</a> indicates it will reduce gambling harm. It is almost certain it will produce a dramatic reduction in pokies-based money laundering.</p>
<p>If implemented (a big if, relying on the Perrottet government’s re-election) these reforms will be highly significant. For the first time in NSW since pokies were introduced in 1956, pokie gamblers will be able to manage their gambling effectively. And <a href="https://theconversation.com/pubs-and-clubs-your-friendly-neighbourhood-money-laundering-service-thanks-to-86-640-pokies-193312">money laundering at the local pub or club</a> will become a thing of the past.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199382/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles Livingstone has received funding from the Victorian Responsible Gambling Foundation, the (former) Victorian Gambling Research Panel, and the South Australian Independent Gambling Authority (the funds for which were derived from hypothecation of gambling tax revenue to research purposes), from the Australian and New Zealand School of Government and the Foundation for Alcohol Research and Education, and from non-government organisations for research into multiple aspects of poker machine gambling, including regulatory reform, existing harm minimisation practices, and technical characteristics of gambling forms. He has received travel and co-operation grants from the Alberta Problem Gambling Research Institute, the Finnish Institute for Public Health, the Finnish Alcohol Research Foundation, the Ontario Problem Gambling Research Committee, the Turkish Red Crescent Society, and the Problem Gambling Foundation of New Zealand. He was a Chief Investigator on an Australian Research Council funded project researching mechanisms of influence on government by the tobacco, alcohol and gambling industries. He has undertaken consultancy research for local governments and non-government organisations in Australia and the UK seeking to restrict or reduce the concentration of poker machines and gambling impacts, and was a member of the Australian government's Ministerial Expert Advisory Group on Gambling in 2010-11. He is a member of the Lancet Public Health Commission into gambling, and of the World Health Organisation expert group on gambling and gambling harm.</span></em></p>NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet has convinced his cabinet to back major pokie reforms, and they will be a vast improvement on the current situation.Charles Livingstone, Associate Professor, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1988922023-02-02T19:16:21Z2023-02-02T19:16:21ZIt’ll be tough for Perrottet to win the NSW election. But Labor won’t romp home either<p>At the New South Wales election on March 25 a 12-year-old Coalition government will be seeking re-election.</p>
<p>Hoping to return as premier is Liberal leader Dominic Perrottet – a political conservative and devout Catholic with seven children, who was this week forced to <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/sydney-schools-linked-to-conservative-catholic-group-opus-dei-investigated-over-broad-curriculum-concerns/0zck5hb4y">respond</a> to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-30/purity:-an-education-in-opus-dei/101908488">allegations aired on Four Corners</a> about curriculum concerns at a Sydney school linked to Catholic group Opus Dei. Perrottet <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/not-a-crime-to-be-catholic-perrottet-defends-faith-as-former-school-comes-under-fire-20230130-p5cgkd.html">attended</a> Redfield College, one of the schools featured in the the ABC report.</p>
<p>It is just the latest headache for Perrottet, leader of a government whose 12-year term in office has only been exceeded in NSW by Labor from 1941-65 and 1995-2011. </p>
<p>Long-serving governments inevitably face the charge they are tired, worn-out and bereft of new ideas. The newly elected Albanese government has been a breath of fresh air at the federal level across a range of policy areas. </p>
<p>The Perrottet government, by contrast, is showing signs of having been in office too long: disunity, lack of discipline, inferior quality personnel, lack of vision.</p>
<p>In short, this will be a tough election for Perrottet to win.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/berejiklian-says-maguire-was-part-of-her-love-circle-but-was-not-significant-enough-to-declare-will-this-wash-with-icac-170860">Berejiklian says Maguire was part of her 'love circle' but was not significant enough to declare – will this wash with ICAC?</a>
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<h2>A succession of short-term premiers</h2>
<p>One way of rejuvenating a government is through a new leader, who sometimes brings the prospect of renewal. However, replacing a capable, well-regarded leader with a neophyte can bring electoral danger.</p>
<p>In NSW, for example, Unsworth after Wran and Fahey after Greiner were defeated the first time they faced the voters. Keneally lost the 2011 election after a brief, tumultuous term, bringing to an end the ALP era dominated by Carr’s ten-year premiership.</p>
<p>The NSW Coalition government is unusual in that it has had a succession of relatively short-term premiers: Barry O’Farrell (2011-14), Mike Baird (2014-17), Gladys Berejiklian (2017-21), Dominic Perrottet (2021 - present). </p>
<p>Each of the first three won an election and contributed significantly to the government’s longevity.</p>
<p>O’Farrell established the governmental road map that emphasised careful planning and avoidance of hasty, politically-motivated decisions. But caution did not preclude achievement; there were major reforms in economic management, infrastructure, and the public sector.</p>
<p>However, O’Farrell resigned prematurely after it was revealed he had inadvertently misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) over the gift of a bottle of wine.</p>
<p>Baird was more of a technocrat, strongly interested in economic management. He also dealt with ICAC’s serial slaughter of Liberal MPs and won the 2015 election with an unappealing policy of electricity privatisation. </p>
<p>He left office with the NSW economy booming, the public finances in good shape and a massive infrastructure program underway.</p>
<p>Berejiklian will be remembered for her resilience, crisis management skills, and administrative competence. In 2019 she became the first female NSW premier to win a general election but resigned in December 2021 over an ICAC investigation into her relationship with discredited former MP <a href="https://theconversation.com/berejiklian-says-maguire-was-part-of-her-love-circle-but-was-not-significant-enough-to-declare-will-this-wash-with-icac-170860">Daryl Maguire</a>.</p>
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<p>Against the odds, Perrottet established himself as a trustworthy if dorky premier. Even the leaking by factional rivals of the fact he wore a Nazi uniform at his 21st birthday party didn’t seem to damage him too much.</p>
<p>The great irony is many expected Perrottet to be an unpopular premier who would drag the government down. In fact, the behaviour of members of his government has dragged his electoral prospects down.</p>
<h2>A series of unfortunate events</h2>
<p>Virtually nothing has gone right for Perrottet. Damaging revelations about the short-lived appointment of former Nationals leader John Barilaro as senior trade and investment commissioner in the Americas led to the resignation of deputy Liberal leader and minister for trade, Stuart Ayres.</p>
<p>On July 20, an ICAC investigation <a href="https://www.icac.nsw.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/2022-media-releases/icac-finds-member-for-drummoyne-john-sidoti-mp-corrupt">found</a> former Liberal MP for Drummoyne, John Sidoti, had engaged in serious corrupt conduct. </p>
<p>On August 5 Perrottet <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-31/minister-eleni-petinos-sacked-after-anonymous-staffer-complaint/101286930">sacked</a> a minister, Eleni Petinos, over bullying allegations.</p>
<p>There was bitter <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/send-a-boy-in-to-do-a-man-s-job-elliott-launches-fresh-attack-on-kean-20220814-p5b9qm.html">rivalry</a> between Transport Minister David Elliott and Treasurer Matt Kean, who indulged in unrestrained public criticism of each other. Relations between Kean and Perrottet, who had been long-term allies, became strained.</p>
<p>Perrottet tried to refute allegations about the Liberal party’s lack of women candidates by replacing three incumbent male upper house members with women. But the arrangement almost fell apart when the Liberal factions, who had not been consulted by their leaders, revolted. A face-saving deal was patched together at the last minute, involving the replacement of one of the proposed female candidates.</p>
<p>To top it off, the government introduced legislation about the clearing of native vegetation on private land that it was forced to abandon after vehement protests from environmentalists and its own backbench.</p>
<h2>The teal threat</h2>
<p>The NSW government faces challenges in safe seats on Sydney’s north shore from “teal” and independent candidates hoping to replicate their counterparts’ federal success.</p>
<p>Although there will probably be a groundswell of support, particularly given the lacklustre nature of some Liberal candidates, the optional preferential voting system will make their task difficult, as it did in Victoria.</p>
<p>All the federal “teals” who took seats from Liberals came second on first preferences and won on a favourable distribution of preferences. NSW, by contrast, has an optional rather than compulsory preferential system, which means many voters will just vote one.</p>
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<h2>No easy win for Labor</h2>
<p>That’s not to say Labor will romp home. The ALP needs a high 6% swing to form majority government, although a hung parliament is a <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/electoral-pendulum-for-the-2023-nsw-election/">distinct possibility</a>. </p>
<p>Experience shows voters are very reluctant to change government unless they have faith in the alternative: the “time for a change” vote competes with the “fear of change” vote.</p>
<p>Opposition leader Chris Minns is plausible and presentable – but is that enough? A Resolve <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-labor-in-election-winning-lead-but-perrottet-preferred-premier-20230124-p5cf5o.html">poll</a> showed him slightly behind Perrottet as preferred premier, although the ALP was ahead on the primary vote – 37% to 34%. </p>
<p>Given the terrible lead up to the election Perrottet has had, this must be a disappointing result for Labor. Previous opposition leaders who defeated long-term governments, such as Neville Wran, Bob Carr and Barry O’Farrell, were aggressive political carnivores. Minns comes across as a mild herbivore. </p>
<p>From here, Minns must go hard on the government over its mistakes, divisions and scandals. At the same time, he needs to outline convincing policies and persuade the voters that life under his leadership will be an improvement.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/stadiums-bushfires-and-a-pandemic-how-will-gladys-berejiklian-be-remembered-as-premier-169096">Stadiums, bushfires and a pandemic: how will Gladys Berejiklian be remembered as premier?</a>
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<p><em>This article has been updated to clarify that Kristina Keneally did not immediately succeed Bob Carr, and to further clarify the details around the teals’ election victories.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198892/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Clune does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As the NSW election looms, the Perrottet government is showing signs of having been in office too long. But that’s not to say Labor will romp home.David Clune, Honorary Associate, Government and International Relations, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1983912023-01-25T02:39:32Z2023-01-25T02:39:32ZLabor maintains lead over Coalition in both federal and NSW Resolve polls<p>A federal <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-still-well-ahead-of-dutton-as-preferred-prime-minister-resolve-poll-20230124-p5ceyd.html">Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted January 17-22 from a sample of 1,606 people, has given Labor 42% of the primary vote (steady since early December), the Coalition 29% (down one), the Greens 11% (steady), One Nation 6% (up two), the UAP 2% (steady), independents 8% (steady) and others 2% (down one).</p>
<p>Resolve does not give two-party estimates until close to elections, but applying 2022 election preference flows to the primary votes gives Labor about a 60.5-39.5% lead over the Coalition, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since December. Since the election, Resolve has been the most favourable poll for Labor of all the Australian pollsters. </p>
<p>Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s net approval was down one point in the Resolve poll to +35 (60% good rating, 25% poor), while Dutton was down three points to -17 (46% poor, 28% good). Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 55-20% (54-19% in December).</p>
<p>Labor led the Liberals by 37-29% on economic management (38-31% in December). On keeping the cost of living low, Labor led by 34-20% (37-24% in December).</p>
<p>Honeymoon polling is continuing for Labor eight months after last May’s election. But a long honeymoon does not guarantee a Labor win at the next election. Kevin Rudd had a long honeymoon after winning the 2007 election, but was replaced by Julia Gillard before the 2010 election. Labor <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Australian_federal_election">lost its majority</a> at that election and barely retained government.</p>
<h2>Resolve also gives Labor lead in NSW</h2>
<p>The New South Wales state election will be held in two months, on March 25. A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-labor-in-election-winning-lead-but-perrottet-preferred-premier-20230124-p5cf5o.html?btis=">Resolve poll</a> for The Sydney Morning Herald gave Labor 37% of the primary vote (down one point since late October), the Coalition 34% (down one), the Greens 12% (up one), the Shooters 2% (up one), independents 11% (up one) and others 5% (steady).</p>
<p>No two-party estimate was provided by Resolve, but analyst <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1617985399275814912">Kevin Bonham</a> estimated a lead of about 54.5-45.5% to Labor, unchanged <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-newspoll-has-labors-lead-down-but-would-still-win-with-three-weeks-until-election-193825">since October</a>. This is in good agreement with a YouGov poll that <a href="https://theconversation.com/two-months-before-nsw-election-a-new-poll-gives-labor-a-big-lead-196876">I covered</a> on Monday (56-44% to Labor).</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/two-months-before-nsw-election-a-new-poll-gives-labor-a-big-lead-196876">Two months before NSW election, a new poll gives Labor a big lead</a>
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<p>Incumbent Liberal Premier Dominic Perrottet led Labor’s Chris Minns by 33-29% as preferred premier (30-29% in October). This poll was presumably conducted with the December and January federal Resolve polls from a sample of about 1,100 people.</p>
<p>The independent vote is very likely to be overstated. In polls last year in both Victoria and federally, Resolve asked respondents to select generic “independents” until actual ballot papers were published. After this, Resolve asked for specific listed candidates. </p>
<p>Resolve’s final <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-labor-slumps-in-resolve-poll-but-still-in-winning-position-labor-failure-on-upper-house-reform-comes-back-to-bite-194923">Victorian poll</a> last year showed a 6% slump for independents - a result that also occurred before the federal election.</p>
<p>Essential’s federal poll included a NSW sub-sample of around 300 respondents. Perrottet had a 47-36% approval rating (49-35% in June 2022), while Minns had a 39-26% approval (39-22% previously). </p>
<p>These ratings are very good for Perrottet given voting intentions, and indicate the recent controversy over his <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jan/12/ashamed-nsw-premier-dominic-perrottet-reveals-he-wore-a-nazi-uniform-at-his-21st-birthday">wearing of a Nazi uniform</a> at his 21st birthday has had no impact.</p>
<h2>Support for Voice to Parliament slumps</h2>
<p>Public support for the First Nations Voice to Parliament has slipped in a federal <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/support-for-voice-slips-as-voters-await-more-detail-20230123-p5cenw.html">Resolve poll</a> of 3,618 people conducted in two separate stages in December and January.</p>
<p>Compared with a similar poll on the Voice conducted in August and September, overall support on the question was 47% (down six percentage points), with 30% opposed (up one) and 23% undecided (up four).</p>
<p>In a question where respondents were forced to choose “yes” or “no” (similar to a referendum), support for the Voice was 60% (down four percentage points from August/September), with 40% opposed (up four). </p>
<p>This is an average of two months of polling across December and January. Support for the question in January alone was 58% (with 42% opposed) after <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jan/18/indigenous-voice-to-parliament-referendum-vote-government-australia-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton">Opposition leader Peter Dutton questioned the government’s</a> handling of the referendum. </p>
<p>Voice support in NSW dropped to 58-42% from 65-35% in August/September, and to 56-44% in Queensland from 59-41%.</p>
<p>On the public’s understanding of the Voice, 63% in the January poll said they had heard of it, but didn’t understand it and would struggle to explain it, while 23% said they had never heard of it and just 13% said they understood the Voice and were confident explaining it to someone else.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-labor-mp-warns-alice-springs-crime-crisis-is-impeding-voice-debate-198312">Federal Labor MP warns Alice Springs crime crisis is impeding Voice debate</a>
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<h2>Labor also leads in federal Essential poll</h2>
<p>In this week’s federal Essential <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">two-party measure</a> (which includes undecided responses), Labor led the Coalition by 53-42% (51-44% in <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-just-ahead-in-two-queensland-polls-and-retains-large-federal-poll-lead-196478">mid-December</a>). </p>
<p>Primary votes were 34% Labor (down one), 31% Coalition (up one), 14% Greens (up one), 16% for all others (down one) and 5% undecided (steady). Respondent preferences were better for Labor than in December.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/24-january-2023">other results</a> from this poll of 1,050 respondents that was conducted in the days before January 24, Albanese’s net approval slumped nine points to +24, its lowest in Essential since the election last May, with 55% approving and 31% disapproving.</p>
<p>On Indigenous Australians, 42% thought things had got better for them in the past ten years (up six percentage points since January 2022), 10% worse (down four) and 38% stayed the same (steady).</p>
<p>On Australia Day, 33% supported a separate national day to recognise Indigenous Australians while keeping Australia Day (down four points since January 2022), while 33% did not support a separate day (up four), and 26% supported replacing Australia Day (up six). </p>
<p>This level of support for replacing the day is easily a record in Essential polls.</p>
<h2>Labor’s lead widens in Morgan poll (but not this week)</h2>
<p>Labor led by 59-41% in this <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/weekly-update-jan-24th-2023-9194">week’s Morgan poll</a>, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. This poll was conducted January 16-22. </p>
<p>Morgan’s polls have swung strongly to Labor since late November, when Labor only led the Coalition by 52.5-47.5%.</p>
<p>In a separate <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9162-roy-morgan-survey-australia-day-january-24-2023">Morgan SMS poll</a>, conducted January 20-23 from a sample of 1,231 respondents, 64% thought January 26 should be known as “Australia Day” (down one point since January 2022), while 36% thought it should be known as “Invasion Day” (up one).</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198391/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Anthony Albanese maintains “honeymoon” period approval ratings, but support for the Voice to Parliament has slipped.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1968762023-01-23T03:32:42Z2023-01-23T03:32:42ZTwo months before NSW election, a new poll gives Labor a big lead<p>A new poll has given Labor a sizeable 56% to 44% two-party preferred lead over the Coalition, two months ahead of the New South Wales state election on March 25.</p>
<p>It’s an even bigger margin than the Newspoll conducted last <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-seizes-big-lead-in-two-new-south-wales-polls-six-months-before-election-191065">September</a>, which gave Labor a 54-46 lead.</p>
<p>The Coalition won the 2019 NSW election by a 52-48 margin after preferences, so this poll represents an 8% swing to Labor.</p>
<p>The YouGov poll for The Sunday Telegraph was conducted January 14-17 from a sample of just over 1,000 people, and recorded primary votes of 39% Labor, 33% Coalition, 11% Greens and 17% for all others. Poll figures and other NSW election news are from <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/01/22/yougov-56-44-to-labor-in-new-south-wales/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>The public seems to be indifferent to the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-16/nsw-matt-kean-says-horrible-cowards-behind-perrottet-nazi-story/101858262">recent revelation</a> by Liberal Premier Dominic Perrottet that he wore a Nazi costume to his 21st birthday party. About 67% of respondents said the scandal made no difference to their vote, while 20% said they would be less likely to vote Coalition, and 8% more likely.</p>
<p>On other topics, the poll found a majority of voters supported cashless gaming cards (61% in favour, 19% opposed). On the party best to deal with the cost of living, 30% selected Labor, 25% the Liberals, and 26% neither. Cost of living was rated the most important issue by 39%, far ahead of the 17% who rated the economy most important.</p>
<p>This YouGov poll <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/01/21/yougov-indigenous-voice-poll-yes-46-no-30-open-thread/">found</a> 46% of NSW voters supported a federal Indigenous Voice to Parliament, while 30% did not.</p>
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<p>If these recent polls are accurate, the Coalition is likely to be defeated in March after three terms and 12 years in government. If this happens, Labor would govern federally and in all states and territories except Tasmania.</p>
<p>In other NSW election news, former Labor MP Tania Mihailuk has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jan/17/former-nsw-labor-mp-joins-one-nation-despite-previously-labelling-mark-latham-a-buffoon">joined One Nation</a>, and will be the party’s second candidate on its upper house ticket. Mark Latham was elected to the NSW upper house for One Nation in 2019 for an eight-year term. However, he has resigned so he can contest this election in an attempt to attract enough voters for One Nation to win a second upper house seat.</p>
<h2>NSW Morgan poll: 52-48 to Labor</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9138-roy-morgan-survey-on-nsw-voting-intention-november-2022">Morgan poll</a>, conducted in November from a sample of 1,234 gave Labor a 52-48 lead in NSW, a five-point gain for the Coalition since October. This poll was not released until December 20.</p>
<p>Primary votes were 37% Coalition (up five since October), 35% Labor (down 1.5), 11.5% Greens (up two), 5% One Nation (down 0.5), 1.5% Shooters (up 0.5), 5.5% independents (down three) and 4.5% others (down 2.5).</p>
<p>Morgan began polling NSW in September, and had Labor ahead by 53-47, before a Labor blowout in October to 57-43 and a Coalition recovery in November.</p>
<h2>Victorian Narracan supplementary election</h2>
<p>Owing to the death of a candidate before the November 26 Victorian state election in the Narracan district in the state’s east, the election there was postponed until Saturday January 28.</p>
<p>Labor and the Nationals <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic/2022/guide/narr">will not contest</a>, so the Liberals’ only significant opponents will be independents and the Greens.</p>
<h2>Last year’s Freshwater federal poll: 54-46 to Labor</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/12/20/freshwater-strategy-54-46-to-labor-open-thread/">Poll Bludger</a> reported December 20 that a federal Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted December 16-18 from a sample of 1,209, gave federal Labor a 54-46 lead.</p>
<p>Primary votes were 37% Labor, 37% Coalition, 12% Greens, 4% One Nation and 10% for all others.</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese had an approval rating of 48%, and a 30% disapproval rating. By contrast, Peter Dutton’s approval rating was 29%, and his disapproval rating was 38%. Albanese led Dutton as preferred prime minister 55% to 29%.</p>
<p>In this poll, 50% of voters supported the Indigenous Voice to Parliament, compared to 26% who did not.</p>
<p>Also, 56% said they supported the proposed cap on gas prices, while 20% did not. By 60% to 22%, voters would support extracting and using more domestic gas. Asked to choose between a cap on prices and increasing supply, the cap was just ahead, 40% to 39%.</p>
<h2>Federal Morgan poll: 59.5-40.5 to Labor</h2>
<p>Morgan’s first <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3uLX46sC9Y">weekly federal poll</a> of the new year gave Labor a 59.5-40.5 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the mid-December Morgan poll. Morgan’s polls have swung strongly to Labor since <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-retains-big-lead-in-newspoll-as-albaneses-ratings-jump-victorian-election-update-195440">late November</a>, when Labor only led by 52.5-47.5. The latest poll was conducted January 9-15.</p>
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<p>In a <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/53-of-australians-would-vote-yes-to-establish-an-aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-voice-to-parliament">Morgan SMS poll</a> that was conducted December 9-12 from a sample of 1,499, the Indigenous Voice to parliament was supported by 53%, to 30% against.</p>
<p>Labor and Greens voters strongly supported the Voice, while Coalition and One Nation voters were strongly opposed. This poll was released December 20.</p>
<h2>Republican Kevin McCarthy becomes US House Speaker on 15th ballot</h2>
<p>Republicans have a 222-212 majority over Democrats in the United States House of Representatives. To win the speakership, a candidate needs a majority of all votes for candidates, but not necessarily a majority of the House owing to abstentions and “present” votes (which is effectively an abstention).</p>
<p>I covered the January 3-6 Speaker election for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/01/05/position-still-vacant-us-house-speaker/">The Poll Bludger</a>. It took 15 rounds of voting before Republican Kevin McCarthy was elected Speaker, defeating Democrat Hakeem Jeffries by 216-212 with six Republicans voting “present”, lowering the threshold for a majority to 215.</p>
<p>This was the first time since 1923 that the speaker election had not been won on the first round. In every round, all 212 Democrats voted for Jeffries, while at one stage 21 Republicans were not voting for McCarthy.</p>
<h2>Chris Hipkins replaces Jacinda Ardern as NZ Prime Minister</h2>
<p>New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-19/jacinda-ardern-will-not-seek-re-election/101871232">announced last week</a> that she would resign as the country’s leader. She also announced that the next NZ election would be held on October 14 this year.</p>
<p>Chris Hipkins was elected by the Labour parliamentary caucus to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/20/chris-hipkins-set-to-become-next-prime-minister-of-new-zealand?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other">replace Ardern on Saturday</a>. He was the only nominee.</p>
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<p>Ardern’s Labour party narrowly gained power from the conservative National in 2017 thanks to the support of the populist NZ First party. Labour then won a landslide in 2020, owing to the popularity of measures to keep COVID out. </p>
<p>But the combined vote for Labour and the Greens has fallen behind National and the right-wing “ACT” party <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election">in the polls</a>. </p>
<p>I wrote for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/01/21/chris-hipkins-to-be-new-zealands-next-pm/">The Poll Bludger</a> on Saturday that Hipkins faces a tough task to win a third term for Labour in October.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196876/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Coalition won the 2019 NSW election by a 52-48 margin, so this poll represents an 8% swing to Labor. But voters are largely indifferent to the Dominic Perrottet Nazi costume scandal.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1933122022-10-28T04:53:48Z2022-10-28T04:53:48ZPubs and clubs – your friendly neighbourhood money-laundering service, thanks to 86,640 pokies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492250/original/file-20221028-53112-lf1bpj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C298%2C4235%2C2228&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Billions of dollars in proceeds of crime are being funnelled through clubs and pubs in New South Wales, <a href="https://www.crimecommission.nsw.gov.au/final-islington-report.pdf">according to</a> the NSW Crime Commission. Predictably, the industry is claiming it’s not an issue and solutions are too difficult.</p>
<p>Laundering money through a local club or hotel involves loading cash into one of the state’s <a href="https://www.liquorandgaming.nsw.gov.au/resources/gaming-machine-data">86,640 poker machines</a>, then cashing out and claiming the money as winnings.</p>
<p>This is not a preferred method for most organised criminals, the crime commission says. Sophisticated criminals have other methods. But it is still a sizeable proportion of the estimated $20 billion in criminal proceeds laundered in NSW each year.</p>
<p>In Queensland, you can put only $100 into a poker machine at one time. In Victoria the limit is $1,000. In NSW, newer machines allow $5,000, and older machines up to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/14/nsw-poker-machine-laws-may-increase-risk-of-money-laundering-says-commission">$10,000</a>. For supposedly harmless suburban fun it’s hard to understand why such sums are allowed.</p>
<p>The findings of the NSW Crime Commission’s <a href="https://www.crimecommission.nsw.gov.au/final-islington-report.pdf">inquiry into money laundering via clubs and hotels</a> follow scandalous money-laundering revelations from casino inquiries in <a href="https://theconversation.com/not-suitable-where-to-now-for-james-packer-and-crowns-other-casinos-154938">NSW</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/illegal-dishonest-unethical-and-exploitative-but-crown-resorts-keeps-its-melbourne-casino-licence-170625">Victoria</a>, Western Australia and Queensland.</p>
<p>Those inquiries found Crown Resorts and Star Entertainment allowed hundreds of millions of dollars to pass through their casinos, in contravention of anti-money-laundering regulations.</p>
<p>Both companies were found not fit to hold their licences. Crown has been fined <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-30/crown-casino-fined-80-million-dollars-china-union-pay/101111660">$80 million</a> in Victoria. Star has been fined <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-16/star-casino-set-to-be-fined-100-million/101541354">$100 million</a> in NSW, and had its licence suspended. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/star-sydney-suspension-how-do-casino-operators-found-so-unfit-get-to-keep-their-licences-192608">Star Sydney suspension: how do casino operators found so unfit get to keep their licences?</a>
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<p>Both have been required to undergo extensive “renewal”. They have agreed to adopt cashless gaming to better protect against money laundering.</p>
<p>It’s therefore unsurprising the NSW Crime Commission’s principal recommendation is to introduce a cashless system for all electronic gaming machines in NSW. Also unsurprising is that the industry is focused on why it shouldn’t.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/now-sydney-has-two-casinos-run-by-companies-unfit-to-hold-a-gaming-licence-190540">Now Sydney has two casinos run by companies unfit to hold a gaming licence</a>
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<h2>Cashless gambling recommended</h2>
<p>The NSW Crime Commission’s report recommends a cashless gambling system for pubs and clubs the same as for casinos – consistent with the identification requirements of Australia’s <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2021C00243">Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing Act</a>.</p>
<p>Electronic gaming cards would record amounts loaded and withdrawn, times, turnover, and losses/wins. The maximum amount of cash able to be loaded on to a player’s account in a single day would be $1,000.</p>
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<img alt="Older electronic gaming machines in NSW allow you to 'load up' to $9,999." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491840/original/file-20221026-4274-h5s605.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491840/original/file-20221026-4274-h5s605.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491840/original/file-20221026-4274-h5s605.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491840/original/file-20221026-4274-h5s605.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491840/original/file-20221026-4274-h5s605.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491840/original/file-20221026-4274-h5s605.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491840/original/file-20221026-4274-h5s605.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Older electronic gaming machines in NSW allow ‘load up’ to $9,999.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>Josh Landis, the chief executive of ClubsNSW (which represents most of the state’s 1,200 licensed clubs) <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/sydney/programs/breakfast/breakfast/14090002">has said</a> that such technology has not been trialled, and was uncosted and unproven.</p>
<p>But Crown Resorts and Star Entertainment are implementing such systems. Similar systems have been operating successfully in Norway <a href="https://nla.gov.au/nla.obj-571970219/view">since 2009</a>, and in Sweden <a href="https://aifs.gov.au/resources/policy-and-practice-papers/pre-commitment-systems-electronic-gambling-machines">since 2013</a>. </p>
<p>Victoria has already implemented a card-based <a href="https://www.yourplay.com.au/">precommitment system</a>, incorporating most necessary characteristics. Every poker machine in the state is linked to this system. Its flaw is that it is voluntary, allowing those who wish to clean dirty money, or avoid a limit, <a href="https://www.justice.vic.gov.au/safer-communities/gambling/evaluation-of-yourplay-final-report">to simply opt out</a>. </p>
<h2>It’s not just about money laundering</h2>
<p>Money laundering isn’t the only reason to introduce cashless gaming systems.</p>
<p>On any day in NSW, <a href="https://www.responsiblegambling.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/881279/NSW-Gambling-Survey-2019-report-FINAL-AMENDED-Mar-2020.pdf">hundreds of thousands of people</a> are experiencing significant gambling harm, mostly using poker machines. Many hundreds of thousands more – <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14459795.2017.1331252">partners, children, employers</a> – are also harmed as a consequence. </p>
<p>A pre-commitment system incorporating all the features of the NSW Crime Commission’s cashless model would stop money laundering and also help those struggling to control their gambling. For those who want to stop it would provide a truly effective gambling self-exclusion system. </p>
<p>The Tasmanian government <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-16/tasmania-pokies-gambling-limits-reform-explained/101446788">has promised to implement</a> a statewide system by 2024.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/responsible-gambling-a-bright-shining-lie-crown-resorts-and-others-can-no-longer-hide-behind-162089">Responsible gambling – a bright shining lie Crown Resorts and others can no longer hide behind</a>
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<h2>A matter of political commitment</h2>
<p>The real test here isn’t technology. It’s political will. </p>
<p>NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet has expressed concern at the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/premier-says-pokies-taxing-on-the-misery-of-others-vows-to-do-better-20221002-p5bmjz.html">exploitation of vulnerable people</a> via gambling. Opposition leader Chris Minns has <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/nsw/coalition-labor-set-to-be-wedged-on-cashless-gaming-card-as-crossbench-pushes-for-reform-20221027-p5bteh.html">said the crime commission’s report is concerning</a> but will not commit to a cashless card. </p>
<p>ClubsNSW and the Australian Hotels Association are two of Australia’s most powerful lobby groups. According to an <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-23/how-gambling-industrys-biggest-political-donors-influence-votes/100592068">ABC investigation</a>, they have doled out about a third of $40 million in political donations disclosed by gambling-related organisations over the past two decades.</p>
<p>Since 2010, ClubsNSW has signed <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-million-dollar-men-who-run-the-clubs-industry-20221011-p5bowp.html">memorandums of understanding</a> with incoming governments to protect its members interests.</p>
<p>In the first six months of 2022 (the <a href="https://nswgov.sharepoint.com/sites/GamingMachineReports/Shared%20Documents/Forms/AllItems.aspx">most recent data</a> available), people in NSW lost $4 billion using pokies – $2.4 billion in clubs, $1.6 billion in pubs. This is 23% more than the same period in 2019, before pandemic restrictions. </p>
<p>Yet according to the Australian Hotels Association, the industry is on “<a href="https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/why-a-pokie-crackdown-will-have-pub-owners-nervous-20221026-p5bt48">on its knees</a>” and being told to introduce “an unproven, untested, un-costed and unnecessary cashless system”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/4-gambling-reform-ideas-from-overseas-to-save-australia-from-gambling-loss-and-harm-165387">4 gambling reform ideas from overseas to save Australia from gambling loss and harm</a>
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<p>In NSW, gambling operators are not permitted to donate to state political campaigns. But ClubsNSW (and its member clubs) can because they are “<a href="https://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/Funding-and-disclosure/Political-donations/Unlawful-political-donations/Prohibited-donors">not for profit</a>”.</p>
<p>If this continues, political parties will be open to the allegation that they, like clubs, are benefiting from the proceeds of crime.</p>
<p>Pokie operators have billions of reasons to assert this is no big deal. Politicians should take a different view.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193312/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles Livingstone has received funding from the Victorian Responsible Gambling Foundation, the (former) Victorian Gambling Research Panel, and the South Australian Independent Gambling Authority (the funds for which were derived from hypothecation of gambling tax revenue to research purposes), from the Australian and New Zealand School of Government and the Foundation for Alcohol Research and Education, and from non-government organisations for research into multiple aspects of poker machine gambling, including regulatory reform, existing harm minimisation practices, and technical characteristics of gambling forms. He has received travel and co-operation grants from the Alberta Problem Gambling Research Institute, the Finnish Institute for Public Health, the Finnish Alcohol Research Foundation, the Ontario Problem Gambling Research Committee, the Turkish Red Crescent Society, and the Problem Gambling Foundation of New Zealand. He was a Chief Investigator on an Australian Research Council funded project researching mechanisms of influence on government by the tobacco, alcohol and gambling industries. He has undertaken consultancy research for local governments and non-government organisations in Australia and the UK seeking to restrict or reduce the concentration of poker machines and gambling impacts, and was a member of the Australian government's Ministerial Expert Advisory Group on Gambling in 2010-11. He is a member of the Lancet Public Health Commission into gambling, and of the World Health Organisation expert group on gambling and gambling harm. </span></em></p>The NSW Crime Commission says cashless gambling cards are needed to stop billions of dollars of ‘dirty money’ being funnelled through NSW pokie venues,Charles Livingstone, Associate Professor, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1918462022-10-04T04:29:11Z2022-10-04T04:29:11ZView from The Hill: Without those ‘lefties’ the Liberals can’t regain government<p>A key issue for the Liberals’ election post-mortem that reports later this year – conveniently after the Victorian election – is how the party deals in future with the “teal” phenomenon. </p>
<p>It is highly unlikely the Liberals can regain office without winning back at least some of the batch of seats community independents have wrested from it. </p>
<p>Progressive teals dispatched moderate Liberals. These MPs will be hard to dislodge anyway, once they have dug in. Commonsense would suggest the Liberals at least would need progressive candidates to have a chance in these seats. </p>
<p>But apparently not, in the opinion of a federal Liberal vice-president, Teena McQueen. </p>
<p>McQueen at the weekend told the Conservative Political Action Conference Australia: “The good thing about the last federal election is a lot of those lefties are gone. We should rejoice in that. </p>
<p>"People I’ve been trying to get rid of for a decade have gone, we need to renew with good conservative candidates.”</p>
<p>McQueen – who ousted a moderate, former MP Trish Worth, to become a vice-president – is known for airing her frank opinions, often unhelpful for her party. </p>
<p>The Liberals’ four federal vice-presidents are discouraged from speaking out publicly; when they do, they are supposed to get the okay of the party’s director. </p>
<p>Early this year, with McQueen in mind, the party’s federal executive passed a motion saying that until the election only the president and director could make public statements about federal party matters.</p>
<p>But McQueen, a regular contributor to Sky News, dismisses suggestions she should go quiet. Whether she remains as a vice-president after the 2023 Liberal federal council will be a test of the Liberal organisation. </p>
<p>On his performance so far, opposition leader Peter Dutton is trying to take a pragmatic line on issues (endorsing the proposed anti-corruption commission) and in rhetoric describing the party (declaring “we are the Liberal party”, not the “Moderate party” or the “Conservative party”). </p>
<p>But in the party at large, there is no consensus about the direction the Liberals should take, including whether they should give up on the teal seats or fight hard to regain them. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-national-cabinet-drops-mandatory-isolation-dumping-covid-exceptionalism-191669">View from The Hill: national cabinet drops mandatory isolation, dumping 'COVID exceptionalism'</a>
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<p>The Institute of Public Affairs’ John Roskam, a party member for at least three decades, wrote (shortly before the May 21 election), “Eventually Liberal attempts to woo the voters of Vaucluse and Hawthorn could be as futile as the Republicans trying to win back Manhattan”. </p>
<p>John Howard has always liked to talk about the Liberal party as a “broad church” embracing both the conservative and classical liberal traditions. </p>
<p>These days those representing the latter, the moderates, are a shadow of their former selves. Surviving moderate federal parliamentarians are scarce, although they do have some significant positions – Simon Birmingham is opposition Senate leader and Julian Leeser is shadow attorney-general, and spokesman on the Voice to Parliament. </p>
<p>At the grassroots level, there is little incentive for small-l liberals to join the party, especially as for some the alternative can be to mobilise behind a teal candidate (which is happening at present for the November Victorian election). </p>
<p>Meanwhile the Liberal conservatives are divided between traditionalists and those on the hard right, the latter wanting the party to turn its back on centrist policies and candidates. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/optus-under-fire-from-government-over-delaying-information-handover-191746">Optus under fire from government over delaying information handover</a>
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<p>The traditional conservatives include former Howard-government minister Nick Minchin, currently one of the party’s federal vice-presidents. It was telling that he was booed at the weekend conference. Labelled as a “right winger” through his political career, Minchin wasn’t considered “right wing” enough. </p>
<p>Those from the uncompromising right (some of them, installed via branch stacking, coming from religious groups) appear to have a strong grip in a party that is hollowed out at rank and file level. </p>
<p>This contributes to the many other problems of both attracting and selecting parliamentary candidates with impressive credentials. </p>
<p>Preselection plebiscites, desirable in theory, can have undesirable outcomes when a party is dominated by factions and fanatics. Top-down preselections can be as bad – think Scott Morrison’s captain’s pick of Katherine Deves for the seat of Warringah. </p>
<p>The present (much-reduced) parliamentary Liberal party is unfit for even the purpose of opposition. It’s lacking in depth of talent, short on women, and with more people than it can afford who are embarrassments, taking up seats that should be better filled. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-national-anti-corruption-commission-set-for-easy-birth-thanks-to-albanese-dutton-accord-191580">Grattan on Friday: National Anti-Corruption Commission set for easy birth thanks to Albanese-Dutton accord</a>
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<p>The Victorian and NSW state elections (the latter is in March) will be a test for Liberals versus teals. </p>
<p>NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet this week expressed optimism the teals wouldn’t be as big a problem as in the federal election. </p>
<p>“I think it comes down to policy, and I’m very proud of the policies of the [state] Liberals and Nationals in addressing those issues that the teals raised at a federal government level,” Perrottet said. </p>
<p>“I think you’ll see the policy framework in which we operate was very different to the previous [federal] government in relation to those issues.” We’ll see how that works out.</p>
<p>The review of the federal election result is being done by a former Liberal federal director, Brian Loughnane, and frontbencher Jane Hume. </p>
<p>If Loughnane and Hume are tempted to pull their punches they will do the party a disservice. Scott Morrison might have been the biggest negative for the Liberals in May, but behind him was a party that had become dysfunctional, a reality just highlighted by the success of the teals and other community candidates.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191846/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>McQueen – who ousted a moderate, former MP Trish Worth, to become a vice-president – is known for airing her frank opinions, often unhelpful for her party.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1910652022-09-27T02:08:47Z2022-09-27T02:08:47ZLabor seizes big lead in two New South Wales polls six months before election<p>The New South Wales state election will be held in six months, in March 2023. A Newspoll, conducted September 19-22 from a sample of 1,006, gave Labor a 54-46 lead (it was 52.0-48.0 to the Coalition at the March 2019 election). Primary votes were 40% Labor (33.3% at the last election), 35% Coalition (41.6%), 12% Greens (9.6%) and 13% for all others (15.5%).</p>
<p>NSW Liberal Premier Dominic Perrottet had ratings of 47% satisfied, 41% dissatisfied, while Labor leader Chris Minns was at 42% satisfied, 27% dissatisfied. Perrottet led by 39-35 as better premier. Newspoll figures are from <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/09/24/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-in-new-south-wales/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-labor-secures-election-winning-lead-as-voters-abandon-the-coalition-20220923-p5bkg4.html">NSW Resolve poll</a> for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted with the federal August and September Resolve polls from a sample of 1,170, gave Labor 43% of the primary vote (up nine since February), the Coalition 30% (down seven), the Greens 10% (up two), the Shooters 2% (steady), independents 10% (down three) and others 5% (down one).</p>
<p>Two party estimates aren’t given by Resolve until near elections, but with a 13-point primary vote lead over the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, Labor is in a dominant position in this poll. The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/09/24/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-in-new-south-wales/">Poll Bludger estimated</a> a 60-40 Labor two party margin.</p>
<p>Despite the blowout lead for Labor, the preferred premier measure was tied at 28% each between Perrottet and Minns (32-29 to Minns in February).</p>
<p>Independent support was at 10% in the NSW poll and 12% in the Victorian Resolve poll below. These figures are very likely to be too high, as Resolve is currently asking for an independent in all seats. Once candidate nominations for the election close, Resolve will only ask for independents in seats where a viable independent is contesting.</p>
<p>These two polls are the best results for NSW Labor since they won the 2007 state election. There has been a large swing to Labor since the previous Resolve poll in February, probably somewhat owing to the scandals around former Nationals leader John Barilaro.</p>
<p>The Resolve poll is likely to be a Labor-favouring outlier, but Newspoll also has Labor well ahead. Labor has made large gains in NSW polls since early this year.</p>
<p>I would expect the federal Labor government to drag down state Labor parties, but this isn’t happening so far. Federal Labor is still at “honeymoon” poll ratings, while the NSW Coalition government is nearly 12 years old.</p>
<h2>Victorian Resolve poll: Labor way ahead</h2>
<p>The Victorian election is on November 26. Primary votes in a <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-heading-for-danslide-2-as-voters-turn-away-from-guy-s-liberals-20220921-p5bjrc.html">state Resolve poll</a> for The Age were 42% Labor (up five since April), 28% Coalition (down five), 12% Greens (up two), 12% independents (up one) and 6% others (down three).</p>
<p>Two party estimates aren’t given by Resolve until closer to elections, but with a 14-point primary vote lead over the Coalition and 12% for the Greens, Labor is in a dominant position in this poll. The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/09/23/resolve-strategic-labor-42-coalition-28-greens-12-in-victoria/">Poll Bludger’s estimated</a> two party was 60-40 to Labor.</p>
<p>Incumbent Labor Premier Daniel Andrews led the Liberals’ Matthew Guy by 46-28 as preferred premier (48-31 in April). This poll would have been conducted with the federal August and September Resolve polls from a sample of about 1,100.</p>
<p>The Poll Bludger said Labor was down one point on the 2018 lower house result on primary votes in this Resolve poll, while the Coalition was down seven. If this result were to be applied to the upper house, it would likely be a disaster for the Coalition under group voting tickets, as they would win few seats on filled quotas, and be vulnerable to preference snowballs.</p>
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<h2>Republic support slumps in federal Resolve poll, but Indigenous Voice has 64% support</h2>
<p>In the federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers that I <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-labors-lead-in-resolve-poll-drops-from-honeymoon-heights-labor-winning-easily-in-victoria-190415">covered previously</a>, support for <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/support-for-australian-republic-drops-following-death-of-queen-elizabeth-ii-20220920-p5bjgj.html">Australia becoming a republic</a> slumped from 54-46 in favour in January, to 54-46 opposed. This was a forced choice question.</p>
<p>On whether to hold a referendum on becoming a republic, 32% wanted to wait until after further consideration of King Charles III, 30% didn’t want a vote at all, and 21% wanted a vote as soon as possible.</p>
<p>Queen Elizabeth II was rated good by 75% and poor by just 5%.</p>
<p>For his three years as governor-general, David Hurley was rated good by 30% and poor by 13%. About 45% thought Charles III would perform well, and 14% badly.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-labors-lead-in-resolve-poll-drops-from-honeymoon-heights-labor-winning-easily-in-victoria-190415">Federal Labor's lead in Resolve poll drops from 'honeymoon' heights; Labor winning easily in Victoria</a>
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<p>In a <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-back-the-voice-but-there-s-doubt-over-what-they-re-backing-20220923-p5bklx.html">proposed referendum</a> on establishing an Indigenous Voice to parliament, voters would support it by a 64-36 margin nationally. This result was based on both the August and September Resolve polls for a combined sample of 3,618.</p>
<p>This was done to have sizeable samples for each state, since a successful referendum requires majorities in four of the six states as well as overall. Support for the Voice was lowest in Queensland (59-41 in favour).</p>
<p>About 45% thought the Voice should take priority over the republic, while 27% thought the republic should be prioritised. And 24% said the Voice should only be about issues relating to Indigenous Australians, 26% about all issues and policy areas, and 22% didn’t support a Voice.</p>
<p>Around 75% said they were aware of the campaign for an Indigenous Voice. By 43-33, voters thought it unlikely the Voice would close the gap on issues such as health.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll: federal Labor leads by 54.5-45.5</h2>
<p>In last week’s Morgan <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9119-weekly-update-20-september-22">weekly update video</a>, federal Labor led by 54.5-45.5 from polling conducted September 12-18, a one point gain for Labor since the previous week.</p>
<p>This is Labor’s biggest lead in Morgan since the federal election.</p>
<h2>Far-right wins Italian election</h2>
<p>I covered Sunday’s Italian election for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/09/25/italian-election-live/">The Poll Bludger</a>. The right coalition easily won majorities in both houses of the Italian parliament. Within that coalition, two far-right parties dominated. Giorgia Meloni, the leader of the Brothers of Italy, will be Italy’s first woman prime minister and first far-right leader since Benito Mussolini.</p>
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<p>The article also covers next Sunday’s first round of the Brazilian presidential election, which the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro is expected to lose to former leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, or “Lula”. If nobody wins at least 50% next Sunday, there will be an October 30 runoff.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191065/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A recent NSW Resolve poll gave Labor 43% of the primary vote, and the Coalition just 30%, though the major party leaders were tied for preferred premier.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist), The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1888222022-08-16T11:06:18Z2022-08-16T11:06:18ZBarilaro report fails to put NSW government integrity crisis to rest<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479346/original/file-20220816-2787-n4n4ay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Bianca de Marchi</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It took George Orwell just one line to describe a <a href="https://www.orwellfoundation.com/the-orwell-foundation/orwell/books-by-orwell/nineteen-eighty-four/">political dystopia</a>: “It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen.” </p>
<p>In contemporary NSW politics, it seems, it takes two inquiries, multiple press conferences, rolling media coverage, and a ministerial resignation.</p>
<p>At 57 pages, the <a href="https://www.dpc.nsw.gov.au/assets/dpc-nsw-gov-au/publications/Trade-Commissioner-to-Americas-employment-process-inquiry-listing-2038/Report-of-the-section-83-inquiry.pdf">Ernst & Young report</a> into a senior NSW government trade appointment to the Americas takes only five pages to get to the heart of the matter. Then it takes a different direction.</p>
<p>“Public servants and the public alike”, states the report’s author, former public servant, Graeme Head, “should be able to have confidence that Public Service appointments are being made in the way they are intended to be.” He is right. Confidence is the central consideration.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-fast-politics-has-left-the-nsw-government-staring-into-the-electoral-abyss-188429">How 'fast' politics has left the NSW government staring into the electoral abyss</a>
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<p>The trouble is, NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet looks to have afforded Head little latitude to directly scrutinise the issue the author calls out; specifically, the matter of public confidence. The public’s voice is relatively silent through the remainder of the report. This is essentially because the document’s scope is largely confined to examining the rules of the game instead of the real question: the spirit in which it is played.</p>
<p>This is not to suggest the process and legality of senior public service appointments should not be closely scrutinised. The EY report does that. The outcome then is as expected. Put simply, in the same way a plumber lays pipes, governments should follow process. That it is necessary for a report to spell that fact out to a 12-year-old administration is telling.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479381/original/file-20220816-11-xhzq0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479381/original/file-20220816-11-xhzq0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479381/original/file-20220816-11-xhzq0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479381/original/file-20220816-11-xhzq0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479381/original/file-20220816-11-xhzq0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479381/original/file-20220816-11-xhzq0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479381/original/file-20220816-11-xhzq0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet has given the report’s authors little latitude to examine the central issue: public confidence.</span>
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<p>Head recommends the relevant act be amended to ensure senior public servants are “not subject to the direction of a Minister in respect of any of their employer functions”.</p>
<p>The ministerial code of conduct, he adds, should also be modified to prevent “a minister from seeking to influence” a public servant “in respect of their employer functions”. Resorting to law and codified minutia to protect fundamental public service principles is hardly cause for public confidence. It is a sign something is very wrong.</p>
<p>The provisions the report recommends, while entirely logical as regulatory responses, do not address the root of the apparent transgressions: culture. Political culture in NSW has reached a juncture where transgressions that seem obvious to all are invisible to those with the clearest vantage point.</p>
<p>Asked about concerns over the appointment in June, the premier <a href="https://amp.smh.com.au/national/nsw/perrottet-distances-himself-from-barilaro-s-appointment-to-new-york-role-20220622-p5avtr.html">responded</a>:</p>
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<p>I’m still unaware of what the substantive issue here is.</p>
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<p>Even without foreseeing questions over process, or a willingness to acknowledge the political optics, the premier’s inability to gauge possible public apprehension over of the appointment is interesting.</p>
<p>Quizzed on the same matter, former deputy premier and the successful candidate for the since relinquished position, John Barilaro, <a href="https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/25/nsw-police-investigate-altercation-john-barilaro-camera-operator-manly-sydney-street">maintained</a> he followed the process. Similarly, former minister and deputy NSW Liberal leader, Stuart Ayres, also <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-01/ive-not-done-anything-wrong:-embattled-nsw-trade-minister/13997612">insisted</a> he had “done nothing wrong”.</p>
<p>Others close to the process appear more capable of grasping the challenges at hand. Asked how the candidate’s appointment was confirmed before the selection committee’s report was signed, Investment NSW head and departmental secretary, Amy Brown <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/dominic-perrottet-to-reveal-stuart-ayres-future-ahead-of-investment-nsw-boss-evidence-at-parliamentary-hearing-20220802-p5b6oi.html">remarked</a> the “high degree of disorganisation” surrounding the process was “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/which-one-s-which-the-blurred-lines-between-ministers-and-their-top-public-servants-20220805-p5b7p7.html">not ideal</a>”.</p>
<p>The candidate who was reportedly initially offered the trade role, Jenny West, stated the offer was then rescinded as it would instead be “<a href="https://amp.abc.net.au/article/101226376">a present for someone</a>”. West added she was told she was “<a href="https://amp.abc.net.au/article/101226376">an extraordinary performer</a>” on having the offer withdrawn.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-government-slides-further-into-trouble-as-perrottet-struggles-for-clear-air-188018">NSW government slides further into trouble as Perrottet struggles for clear air</a>
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<p>Commenting on the planned political management of anticipated criticism of the eventual trade role appointment, public service commissioner Kathrina Lo <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/had-i-known-what-i-know-now-lo-felt-used-in-barilaro-appointment-20220805-p5b7kn">remarked</a>, “I should not be viewed as cover for a recruitment process”.</p>
<p>The most salient observation came from Premier and Cabinet head Michael Coutts-Trotter, who reportedly texted that the establishment of an inquiry into the appointment was “<a href="https://amp.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/this-isn-t-great-private-text-messages-revealed-amid-barilaro-fallout-20220810-p5b8pw">utterly predictable</a>”. Indeed.</p>
<p>Predictably, the release of the EY report will not put an end to questions of integrity, culture and accountability. Because the right questions are not being asked. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the implications of recently released <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/Independent-Review-into-bullying,-harassment-and-sexual-misconduct-at-the-Parliament-of-NSW.aspx">Broderick report</a> into bullying, harassment and sexual misconduct within NSW Parliament are just emerging. And at the federal level, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/16/scott-morrison-five-more-secret-ministries-minister-portfolio-ministry-including-treasury-home-affairs">transparency of ministerial appointments</a> is under scrutiny over revelations of former Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s multiple portfolio assignations.</p>
<p>The clock is striking thirteen.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188822/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andy Marks does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The release of an independent report into the New York trade appointment will not put an end to questions of integrity, culture and accountability - because the right questions are not being asked.Andy Marks, Pro Vice-Chancellor, Strategy, Government and Alliances, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1884292022-08-09T20:05:20Z2022-08-09T20:05:20ZHow ‘fast’ politics has left the NSW government staring into the electoral abyss<p>The 1973 <a href="https://www.levin-center.org/the-watergate-hearings/">Watergate Committee hearings</a> ran for 51 days. The televised revelations drew a huge audience. The pressure built with slow, devastating intensity, devouring then US President Richard Nixon’s agenda, eventually leaving him no option but to fall on his sword.</p>
<p>While not quite a Watergate moment, it is hard to see how the current <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/committees/inquiries/Pages/inquiry-details.aspx?pk=2891">NSW parliamentary inquiry</a> into the appointment of the New York trade commissioner will end. Approaching day 49 of proceedings, the inquiry has already prompted the resignation of NSW Liberal deputy leader Stuart Ayres, with more fallout a distinct possibility.</p>
<p>Internal Liberal-National Coalition critics of Dominic Perrottet’s management of the issue are reportedly “<a href="https://amp.smh.com.au/national/nsw/barilaro-saga-lands-perrottet-in-purgatory-20220803-p5b6xq.html">furious</a>”. Their wrath centres on two issues. First, the premier’s inability to anticipate public reaction to the appointment. Second, his incapacity to put an end to the controversy. </p>
<p>The latter point is telling, as it goes to heart of the most prized skill in modern politics: tempo.</p>
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<p>Regaining control of political tempo is possibly Perrottet’s only chance of securing another term for his 12-year-old government at the March 2023 election against a reinvigorated Labor opposition. Finding your rhythm, let alone dictating it, is not as easy as it sounds. Trust me. In a former life <a href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crow_(Australian_band)">I was a drummer</a> of mild renown.</p>
<p>Political tempo is an interesting phenomenon. Elected officials do everything they can to control it, but it is a dark and fleeting art. In Australian politics of old, slowing down the media and parliamentary agenda was a virtue; a marker of reasoned, deliberative and informed leadership.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-government-slides-further-into-trouble-as-perrottet-struggles-for-clear-air-188018">NSW government slides further into trouble as Perrottet struggles for clear air</a>
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<p>Asked on an airport tarmac in 1965 by a clamouring media pack whether Labor would back then Prime Minister Robert Menzies’s commitment of Australian troops to Vietnam, Labor leader Arthur Calwell calmly refused to answer. </p>
<p>Days later, on the floor of parliament, he articulated <a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2019/08/10/the-legacy-graham-freudenberg/15653592008579">Labor’s prescient rejection</a> of the decision. It was a moment that restored his party’s moral compass and set a tempo towards eventual electoral victory eight years later under Whitlam.</p>
<p>The art of slow politics has been lost. In recent decades, controlling the daily media agenda has become the goal. The timing of press releases, the staging of doorstop interviews, speaking points, three-word slogans and zingers have become the hallmark of fast politics. Perrottet, like other contemporary leaders, is compelled to move, and accordingly be judged, at this speed.</p>
<p>A protracted inquiry is kryptonite to fast politics.</p>
<p>With no end in sight to the upper house inquiry, the NSW Coalition is contending with daily, relatively unpredictable attacks on its integrity. This comes in the wake of the electoral defeat of its federal colleagues, largely over questions of integrity and trust. </p>
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<span class="caption">For Premier Dominic Perrottet, the looming NSW election means he desperately needs to wrest back control of the political agenda.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Himbrechts/AAP</span></span>
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<p>The premier has attempted to counter this perception by initiating his own inquiry – by former public service commissioner Graeme Head – to “<a href="https://amp.abc.net.au/article/101183930">ensure the utmost independence and public confidence in the process</a>”. Public confidence is indeed the critical factor.</p>
<p>But the concurrent upper house inquiry has no patience for slow politics. It makes its own case for the public’s confidence. It marches on, drowning out the premier’s internal inquiry, with a cavalcade of political and “private citizen” appearances setting their own tempo, making their own claims, and marking out their own versions of events.</p>
<p>In this scenario, the premier’s attempts at process and transparency are countered by the unpredictable and meandering events of hearings he can neither predict nor counter.</p>
<p>The political agenda has been lost, and tempo – of any discernible rhythm – seems impossible to restore.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-barilaro-keeps-nationals-in-the-tent-koalas-stay-in-limbo-146036">View from The Hill: Barilaro keeps Nationals in the tent; koalas stay in limbo</a>
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<p>It is a dire position for any government to find itself in, particularly at this late stage of the electoral cycle. It may be that an abandonment of prior positions is the only option. A reset.</p>
<p>To a degree, the NSW Labor opposition has beaten the Coalition on the reset front. Opposition Leader Chris Minns has vowed to “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw-labor-vows-to-abolish-international-trade-roles-after-john-barilaro-saga-20220805-p5b7pg.html">abolish</a>” the controversial trade postings should Labor win office. It is not too late for the premier to make the same commitment.</p>
<p>Matching Labor’s political tempo on this issue would seem anathema to many Coalition strategists, and their Labor counterparts. Careers in modern politics have been forged through steadfast political differentiation, conflict, and dogged combat.</p>
<p>The federal poll tells us voters might be tiring of political cacophony. Truly “new” politics in NSW might just be found in synchronicity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188429/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andy Marks does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Perrottet government has lost control of the political tempo in NSW – and with an election looming, the result could be dire.Andy Marks, Pro Vice-Chancellor, Strategy, Government and Alliances, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1866342022-07-08T03:51:43Z2022-07-08T03:51:43ZVIDEO: Albanese tightens ministerial code, banning shareholdings and blind trusts<p>University of Canberra Professorial Fellow Michelle Grattan and University of Canberra Assistant Professor Caroline Fisher discuss the week in politics.</p>
<p>This week Michelle and Caroline look at whether the political demise of Boris Johnson will affect our bilateral relations with the United Kingdom, and the fresh signs of the possible thaw in the China-Australia relationship. They also canvass the criticism of Anthony Albanese for his overseas travel, and the NSW premier’s defence of the PM. </p>
<p>On the domestic front, the NSW floods saw smoother federal-state co-ordination than happened in the last floods. In other news, Albanese has tightened the ministerial code of conduct, and Education Minister Jason Clare spoke on Labor’s plans for higher education. </p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>University of Canberra Professorial Fellow Michelle Grattan and Assistant Professor Caroline Fisher discuss the week in politicsMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1865612022-07-07T11:04:43Z2022-07-07T11:04:43ZGrattan on Friday: Albanese is pursuing harmony but consensus has its limits<p>It was a sharp contrast. Similar disasters, very different politics. </p>
<p>Responding to the NSW and Queensland floods earlier this year, Scott Morrison couldn’t put a foot right. Complaints abounded – over the Commonwealth’s response, and his own. </p>
<p>In this week’s NSW disaster, federal-state relations have been much smoother (acknowledging that things can fray somewhat as the clean-up goes on). </p>
<p>The Albanese government learned from watching its predecessor’s problems. Murray Watt has made a (so far) effective transition from vociferous critic to activist emergency management minister, anxious to anticipate what’s required. </p>
<p>A notable feature has been the very positive response of NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet. As the federal opposition and other critics hoped to score a political point, the Liberal premier had the Labor prime minister’s back. </p>
<p>Appearing at a joint news conference with Anthony Albanese on Wednesday, Perrottet praised the “great co-ordination” between the two levels of government. “To have the ADF, 100 ADF, on the ground very, very quickly was pleasing. And I think that also inspires and instils confidence in our local communities.” </p>
<p>He made it clear (with a nod to diplomacy) that the latest response was much better than the earlier one, and had little truck with critics’ attempts to claim Albanese (in Ukraine at the weekend, without communications) hadn’t been in touch fast enough. “As soon as he could, he picked up the phone to call me.”</p>
<p>Accepting that a swallow does not a summer make, this instance of federal-state harmony is encouraging. </p>
<p>The pandemic drove significant changes in Australia’s federation, especially by empowering the states, albeit without any formal alteration in the distribution of responsibilities. We are yet to see whether lasting changes will come out of that experience. But if the Albanese government wants to promote its various reforms, as much harmony as possible with the states, and especially the bigger states, will be vital. </p>
<p>For his part Perrottet, facing a very difficult election early next year, has an incentive to get on with a popular new federal government. He doesn’t want fights on two fronts. </p>
<p>Where possible, the PM will bring his declared aim of a “consensus” approach to his dealings with the states – which could all be Labor on the mainland if Perrottet loses. Albanese wants a “reset” in the federation. </p>
<p>A “reset” and a consensus approach are already being pursued in higher education by Education Minister Jason Clare, who outlined his plans at a Universities Australia conference this week. </p>
<p>Political players and commentators have noted a feeling among many people after the election of what’s described as “relief”. Nowhere is this more evident than in the university sector. </p>
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<p>The Coalition hardly tried to disguise its hostility to universities. It decided they were rich enough not to need JobKeeper, so they were excluded from that assistance. Some did have plenty of resources, but not all. And the pandemic delivered a body blow to the lucrative revenue flow from overseas students. There have been extensive job cuts.</p>
<p>The former government also had ideological issues with universities. They were seen as incubators for left-wing ideas. It wanted them much more directly tied into the jobs market. It reshaped its funding, imposing heavier course fees on humanities students. </p>
<p>Clare will announce in coming months a group to lead Labor’s proposed “accord” process to chart future directions for the universities. This will involve a broad range of stakeholders, and amounts to a major new inquiry into the sector. </p>
<p>Tanya Plibersek, who’d been expected to hold the education portfolio, summarised Labor’s desired approach when she was shadow minister. “The aim of an accord would be to build consensus on key policy questions and national priorities in a sober, evidence-based way, without so much of the political cut and thrust. Building that consensus should help university reform stick.” </p>
<p>But Andrew Norton, professor in the practice of higher education policy at the Australian National University, says the word “accord” carries “the implication we’re going to seek agreement between conflicting views and interests rather than pursue a coherent new policy direction based on rigorous analysis”.</p>
<p>While the collaborative approach is welcome, potential tension points are obvious, especially when the government will be under heavy budgetary constraints for years to come. </p>
<p>A coming test for consensus will be the September jobs summit. This will be an ideas-gathering exercise, but the government will also want to shape it as a prelude to the October budget, and that would require some common messages. </p>
<p>The summit needs to reach a degree of agreement on the immediate problems, probably not so difficult given the acute labour market shortages. To what extent, however, will participants be able to coalesce around solutions, for example the desirable level of migration? </p>
<p>In a bold or foolhardy gesture, depending on your view, Albanese has indicated he won’t be deterred by a failure to reach consensus in one of the most sensitive policy areas he faces. This is the plan to hold a constitutional referendum this term to enshrine an Indigenous Voice to Parliament. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dreyfus-ends-prosecution-of-lawyer-over-alleged-leaking-about-australian-spying-in-against-timor-leste-186555">Dreyfus ends prosecution of lawyer over alleged leaking about Australian spying in against Timor-Leste</a>
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<p>In a recent interview with The Australian, the prime minister said: “You don’t need a consensus but you need a broad agreement, firstly, among First Nations leaders and then, secondly, you would seek to get as broad a political agreement as possible for a referendum. </p>
<p>"So that doesn’t mean that any group would have veto power because my concern is that unless there is a referendum in the foreseeable future, then the momentum will be lost.” If the Coalition was opposed, “we would consider that as a factor but not necessarily a decisive one”. </p>
<p>The conventional wisdom is that, given the difficulties of getting any referendum through and the dismal history of attempts, bipartisanship would be essential for the success of this one. Speaking on Sky on Thursday, opposition spokesman Julian Leeser was non-committal about the Coalition’s likely position. </p>
<p>The costs of failure on something so fundamental would be high. The defeat of the 1999 referendum on the republic put the issue off the agenda for a generation (so far). </p>
<p>It would be extremely risky for Albanese to go to the people without consensus across the major parties. </p>
<p>On the other hand, it might be that his threat to do so would increase the pressure on the opposition. Certainly it would intensify what will be a very difficult debate within it. Would the Coalition really want to withhold its support, and by doing so fuel division in the community? </p>
<p>It’s too early to say. But we can say this referendum is shaping up as the highest-stakes social issue of this parliamentary term.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186561/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In this week’s NSW disaster, federal-state relations have been much smoother (acknowledging that things can fray somewhat as the clean-up goes on). The Albanese government learned from watching its predecessor’s problems.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1801002022-03-27T11:02:09Z2022-03-27T11:02:09ZMorrison wins battle to head off rank-and-file preselections, as government readies to deliver vote-bait budget<p>Scott Morrison finally got his way at the weekend when the Liberal federal executive agreed to candidates for several key NSW seats being picked by a three-person committee rather than the rank and file having their say. </p>
<p>The executive decision culminates a long and extraordinary saga, in which Morrison’s factional ally, minister Alex Hawke, had obstructed preselection contests being called. </p>
<p>Imminent preselection ballots in Parramatta, Hughes and Eden-Monaro have now been cancelled. A preselection in Warringah was expected to be run, but won’t be held. </p>
<p>The executive decided the PM, NSW premier Dominic Perrottet, and a former Liberal federal president Chris McDiven would choose the candidates for these and a number of other NSW seats. </p>
<p>This course flies in the face of a push in recent years for internal democracy within the NSW division, and is expected to bring a backlash from discontented party members. </p>
<p>The shambles which has left a swathe of seats without Liberal candidates until so close to the election reflects the dysfunction of the division due to extreme factional infighting, including the determination of the minority Morrison-Hawke faction to use whatever muscle it could muster to make up for its lack of numbers. </p>
<p>The federal executive resisted intervening for months but eventually had to give in to Morrison’s pressure. </p>
<p>These particular seats are important. Hughes and Warringah are held by crossbenchers; Eden-Monaro is narrowly Labor; Parramatta will be vacant, with the Labor member retiring. </p>
<p>Ironically, Anthony Albanese is trying to shoehorn high profile economist Andrew Charlton, who lives in Sydney’s eastern suburbs, into Parramatta, in the city’s west. This has angered some local Labor party members. Nominations for the Labor candidate, who will be preselected by the ALP national executive, close Monday.</p>
<p>Albanese told reporters at the weekend: “Andrew Charlton is someone who would make a great member of the House of Representatives. […] He would bring an extraordinary capacity.” Charlton was an advisor to then prime minister Kevin Rudd.</p>
<p>Also at the weekend veteran ALP senator Kim Carr abandoned his fight for political survival, announcing he would retire. There has been a prolonged fight over the Victorian ticket, that also put into limbo the late senator Kimberley Kitching’s preselection, which her friends have said put her under considerable stress before her sudden death.</p>
<p>Carr, in parliament since 1993, who was a minister in the Labor government, admitted in a statement he would have liked to stay on. But, he said, “issues with my health have made that inadvisable. In light of recent tragic developments, and following determined urgings from my children, I concluded that it was time for me to reassess my priorities.”</p>
<p>The Senate’s budget week sitting has been brought forward to Monday for condolence speeches for Kitching. </p>
<p>On the Liberal side, the NSW division, in a statewide mass vote, dumped senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells in favour of senator Jim Molan for third place on the Senate ticket. </p>
<p>The third spot will be very difficult to win but Molan, who polled strongly “below the line” last election when he was relegated to an unwinnable spot on the Coalition ticket, would have more pulling power than Fierravanti-Wells. </p>
<p>When Molan later filled a senate casual vacancy he said he would not recontest at this election. It seems likely if he did win Molan, 71, who has been ill, would retire some time into the term, providing a casual vacancy for the Liberals to fill. </p>
<p>The last minute preselection flurries come as the government prepares to deliver on Tuesday the budget that will be its launch pad for the May election. </p>
<p>While voters will be focused on what the budget offers on cost of living, the government will also highlight infrastructure, saying its rolling 10-year infrastructure investment pipeline will increase from $110 billion to over $120 billion. It said on Sunday that the budget would commit $17.9 billion towards new and existing infrastructure projects in the pipeline.</p>
<p>Speculation about cost of living measures centres on cash payments for low and middle income earners, and for pensioners, and some relief on fuel excise. </p>
<p>At the weekend, Morrison was back campaigning in Western Australia where the government has several seats at risk. </p>
<p>Asked whether pensioners would get the planned cost of living bonus Morrison said, “we have got a cost of living package, which works right across the Australian community”,</p>
<p>Shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers indicated Labor would not make a fight of budget action on fuel excise, which many experts say would be bad policy. </p>
<p>“The expectation I think broadly […] is some kind of temporary cut to the fuel excise. We’re unlikely to stand in the way of that,” Chalmers told the ABC.</p>
<p>He also made clear a Labor government’s first budget would cut money for contractors and consultants in the public service and for “discretionary funds where ministers have been rorting funding for political purposes rather than for an economic dividend”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180100/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scott Morrison finally got his way at the weekend when the Liberal federal executive agreed to candidates for several key NSW seats being picked by a three-person committee rather than the rank and file having their sayMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1768922022-02-10T10:32:44Z2022-02-10T10:32:44ZGrattan on Friday: Morrison’s religious discrimination package couldn’t fly on a wing and a prayer<p>Scott Morrison made three foolish and arrogant assumptions this week when he embarked on trying to push his controversial religious discrimination legislation through parliament. </p>
<p>As a result, he failed in the mission and emerged from Wednesday’s all-night sitting with his authority diminished. With time almost out before the election, this legislation, which he claimed was “very important”, has reached a dead end. </p>
<p>First, Morrison thought he could tactically outplay Anthony Albanese, wedging Labor on an electorally sensitive issue. This smacked of hubris – it is safer to think your opponent just might be smarter than you are. </p>
<p>Second, he underestimated the spine of the moderates in his own party. He was not properly tapped into his backbench, especially those in the leafy suburbs who are under pressure from independent candidates. The moderates have been acquiring a louder voice recently, which became obvious in last year’s climate change debate.</p>
<p>Third, Morrison believed he could rush a complex issue – which he’s had years to deal with – in the high-pressured dying days of the electoral term. The “I am PM – therefore I can” principle doesn’t always work in a close parliament.</p>
<p>This has been another political shambles for Morrison, already beset by bad polling, a crisis in aged care, and leaked texts. </p>
<p>NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet – incidentally, a dedicated Catholic – had some prescient words on Wednesday as the federal government prepared for votes on the religious discrimination and associated legislation.</p>
<p>“I’ve made it very clear that I don’t believe legislation in this space is necessary and I think it can end up creating more problems than it solves,” Perrottet said.</p>
<p>As well as arguing it is needed, Morrison said he was committed to the legislation because he promised it before the last election. </p>
<p>In reality, he has been substantially driven by a quest to keep or win faith-based conservative voters, particularly in ethnic areas in western Sydney. Some Coalition sources believe these votes were an essential component in his 2019 victory. </p>
<p>Albanese desperately requires these votes too – Labor identified after the 2019 election that it had a problem with them – and he certainly can’t afford to lose those already in the ALP’s camp. </p>
<p>So although many in Labor and its base didn’t want a bar of the religious discrimination legislation – Bill Shorten told Parliament “We will rue the day if this legislation passes the Senate” – the opposition leader wrangled a divided frontbench and caucus into supporting it, while pressing amendments. </p>
<p>The government’s package included an amendment to the Sex Discrimination Act to prevent gay students being expelled from religious schools. </p>
<p>But that was narrower than an earlier undertaking Morrison gave and it didn’t cover transgender students. The government said it wanted a report from the Law Reform Commission before acting on them, because of what it insisted were the complexities of religious schools dealing with trans students.</p>
<p>The exclusion of transgender children turned out to be a serious flaw in the eyes of some in Liberal ranks.</p>
<p>The moderates asserted themselves, in negotiations on the package before the parliamentary debate, and in the chamber. They were driven by principle but also by their own political imperatives. </p>
<p>Some moderate critics of the bill share Perrottet’s view about the unwisdom of stirring up the religious discrimination issue. They were even more exercised about transgender students being left in limbo. </p>
<p>Morrison twisted arms and gave some sops to try to corral his followers.
Perhaps he thought when push came to shove, his authority would get him through. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberal-revolt-removes-all-discrimination-against-gay-and-transgender-children-176808">Liberal revolt removes all discrimination against gay and transgender children</a>
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<p>It didn’t. Two Liberal defectors, Bridget Archer and Trent Zimmerman, raised their heads in votes on the main bill, although it eventually passed the House of Representatives unamended.</p>
<p>It was a much worse story for the government on the bill to amend the Sex Discrimination Act. Three more Liberal rebels – Katie Allen, Fiona Martin and Dave Sharma – joined Archer and Zimmerman. The five supported a successful amendment for all students – including transgender – to be protected. </p>
<p>Morrison was left flummoxed and no doubt furious. The government was uncertain how votes would go if the legislation went immediately to the Senate. For hours on Thursday it mulled over its next step. </p>
<p>It was consulting stakeholders, according to Assistant Minister to the Attorney-General Amanda Stoker. And counting its numbers, obviously, in this hostile chamber. One of its senators, Andrew Bragg, would have crossed the floor. But in fact, non-government Senate leaders had already decided late Wednesday there wouldn’t be enough time to deal with the legislation on Thursday.</p>
<p>Meanwhile the Australian Christian Lobby declared the government should withdraw the package, saying: “Taking away protections for Christian schools is a price too high to pay for the passage of the Religious Discrimination Bill.”</p>
<p>After a few hours the government shelved the package, and lashed out. Attorney-General Michaelia Cash argued in a letter to her Labor counterpart, Mark Dreyfus, and crossbencher Rebekha Sharkie, who moved the successful amendment, that the change could in fact allow – rather than prohibit – discrimination in religious schools. </p>
<p>The government said this was based on advice from the government solicitor, although the letter did not reference the advice.</p>
<p>Sharkie was unimpressed, describing Cash’s letter as a “ruse”. “Let’s see what’s behind it,” she said, challenging Cash to table the legal advice. </p>
<p>Sharkie smells the same game as the government played years ago when the crossbench rolled it to pass the Medevac law to facilitate the transfer of offshore asylum seekers and refugees to Australia for treatment. </p>
<p>The consensus is the religious discrimination package won’t get through this term. There are only a couple of Senate sitting days left (in budget week), the government doesn’t have the numbers, and the political caravan will have moved on. </p>
<p>As for now, Morrison might argue he tried but was thwarted by Labor. But that can be countered with a question and a proposition. </p>
<p>The question is: “Why did you leave it so late?” The proposition is that, regardless of the legal argy-bargy, when you are promoting anti-discrimination it is difficult to complain you have been stymied by the House of Representatives insisting on removing discrimination against trans kids. </p>
<p>This botched bid to legislate against religious discrimination has been a textbook example of poor policymaking. And that’s leaving aside the problematic nature of the case for the policy in the first place.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176892/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scott Morrison made three foolish and arrogant assumptions this week when he embarked on trying to push his controversial religious discrimination legislation through parliament.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1746062022-01-11T19:17:57Z2022-01-11T19:17:57ZHealthy humans drive the economy: we’re now witnessing one of the worst public policy failures in Australia’s history<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440159/original/file-20220111-19-ho52kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7348%2C4891&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Shutterstock</span> </figcaption></figure><p>Australians are getting a stark reminder about how value is actually created in an economy, and how supply chains truly work.</p>
<p>Ask chief executives where value comes from and they will credit their own smart decisions that inflate shareholder wealth. Ask logistics experts how supply chains work and they will wax eloquent about ports, terminals and trucks. Politicians, meanwhile, highlight nebulous intangibles like “investor confidence” – enhanced, presumably, by their own steady hands on the tiller.</p>
<p>The reality of value-added production and supply is much more human than all of this. It is people who are the driving force behind production, distribution and supply.</p>
<p>Labour – human beings getting out of bed and going to work, using their brains and brawn to produce actual goods and services – is the only thing that adds value to the “free gifts” we harvest from nature. It’s the only thing that puts food on supermarket shelves, cares for sick people and teaches our children.</p>
<p>Even the technology used to enhance workers’ productivity – or sometimes even replace them – is ultimately the culmination of other human beings doing their jobs. The glorious complexity of the whole economy boils down to human beings, using raw materials extracted and tools built by other human beings, working to produce goods and services.</p>
<h2>A narrow, distorted economic lens</h2>
<p>The economy doesn’t work if people can’t work. So the first economic priority during a pandemic must be to keep people healthy enough to keep working, producing, delivering and buying. </p>
<p>That some political and business leaders have, from the outset of COVID-19, consistently downplayed the economic costs of mass illness, reflects a narrow, distorted economic lens. We’re now seeing the result – one of the worst public policy failures in Australia’s history. </p>
<p>The Omicron variant is tearing through Australia’s workforce, from <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nurses-are-in-despair-as-staffing-shortages-bite-in-nsw-hospitals-20220103-p59ljc.html?fbclid=IwAR3obDpqk7Muu2xpOA1H7MH2D2TuxPIzMQrL_NKk2QoKHA2LriWoRcmRO8o">health care</a> and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/hundreds-of-nsw-childcare-centres-shut-due-to-covid-20220104-p59ls4.html">child care</a>, to <a href="https://www.edenmagnet.com.au/story/7575635/knock-on-effects-through-supply-chain-despite-eased-covid-rules-for-workers/">agriculture</a> and <a href="https://www.freshplaza.com/article/9388733/omicron-has-now-put-us-in-a-desperate-situation-in-regards-to-workers-shortage-and-shipping-issues/">manufacturing</a>, to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-06/supermarket-shortage-supply-chain-truck-driver-covid/100741392">transportation and logistics</a>, to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/surf-lifesavers-and-students-fill-paramedic-shifts-as-omicron-spreads-20220108-p59mrq.html">emergency services</a>. </p>
<p>The result is an unprecedented, and preventable, economic catastrophe. This catastrophe was visited upon us by leaders – NSW Premier Dom Perrotet and Prime Minister Scott Morrison in particular – on the grounds they were protecting the economy. Like a Mafia kingpin extorting money, this is the kind of “protection” that can kill you.</p>
<h2>Effect as bad as lockdowns</h2>
<p>On a typical day in normal times, between <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/nov-2021/EM2b.xlsx">3% and 4% of employed Australians</a> miss work due to their own illness. Multiple reports from NSW indicate up to half of workers are now absent due to COVID: because they contracted it, were exposed to it, or must care for someone (like children barred from child care) because of it. With infections still spreading, this will get worse in the days ahead.</p>
<p>Staffing shortages have left hospitals in chaos, supermarket shelves empty, supply chains paralysed. ANZ Bank data, for example, shows <a href="https://twitter.com/ANZ_Research/status/1479284711151345666?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet">economic activity in Sydney</a> has fallen to a level lower than the worst lockdowns. </p>
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<p><strong>Spending in Sydney and Melbourne now near lockdown conditions</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440169/original/file-20220111-17-1jp9jpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="ANZ Bank data shows spending in Sydney and Melbourne has fallen to levels typical of lockdown conditions." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440169/original/file-20220111-17-1jp9jpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440169/original/file-20220111-17-1jp9jpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440169/original/file-20220111-17-1jp9jpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440169/original/file-20220111-17-1jp9jpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440169/original/file-20220111-17-1jp9jpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440169/original/file-20220111-17-1jp9jpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440169/original/file-20220111-17-1jp9jpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ANZ Research</span></span>
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<p>If relaxing health restrictions in December (as Omicron was already spreading) was motivated by a desire to boost the economy, this is an own-goal for the history books.</p>
<h2>Relaxing isolation rules</h2>
<p>Now the response to Omicron ravaging labour supply is to relax isolation requirements for workers who have contracted, or been exposed to, COVID-19.</p>
<p>The first step was to shift the goalposts on “test, trace, isolate and quarantine” arrangements by redefining “close contact”. </p>
<p>On December 29 <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-kirribilli-nsw-10">the Prime Minister said</a> it was important to move to a new definition “that enables Australia to keep moving, for people to get on with their lives”. The next day National Cabinet <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/national-cabinet-statement-12">approved a definition</a> such that only individuals having spent at least four hours indoors with a COVID-infected person needed to isolate.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-still-not-too-late-to-fix-the-rapid-antigen-testing-debacle-why-the-national-cabinet-decision-is-wrong-and-must-be-reversed-174391">It's still not too late to fix the rapid antigen testing debacle. Why the national cabinet decision is wrong and must be reversed</a>
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<p>Australians certainly want supply chains to keep moving. That won’t happen by simply pretending someone with three hours and 59 minutes of face-to-face indoor contact with Omicron is safe. Putting asymptomatic but exposed and potentially infected people back to work will only accelerate the spread.</p>
<p>The second step has been to reduce the isolation period for those who do pass this tougher “close contact” test. At its December 30 meeting National Cabinet agreed to a standard isolation period of seven days (ten days in South Australia), <a href="https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/gp-opinion/so-you-have-been-asked-to-self-isolate-or-quaranti">down from 14 days</a>.</p>
<p>For “critical workers” in essential services including food logistics, the NSW and Queensland governments <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/at-work/isolation-rules-relaxed-for-critical-workers-as-nsw-battles-supply-chain-issues/news-story/2b97ef133f6c3caff9dcd5bc548cc58b">have gone even further</a>, allowing employers to call them back to work so long as they are asymptomatic. </p>
<h2>Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory</h2>
<p>This follows a <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s1227-isolation-quarantine-guidance.html">US precedent</a>, despite <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMc2102507?articleTools=true">scientific evidence</a> indicating contagion commonly lasts longer than 5 days.</p>
<p>Employers will use this change to pressure exposed and even sick workers to return to work, risking their own health, colleagues, customers, and inevitably spreading the virus further.</p>
<p>Copying US COVID protocols only guarantees US-style infection rates. In fact, since 5 January, Australia’s seven-day rolling average infections per million <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-03-30..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=total_cases_per_million&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=USA%7EAUS">now exceed that of the US</a>. </p>
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<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440179/original/file-20220111-21-zzh3bj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people, Australia compared to United States." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440179/original/file-20220111-21-zzh3bj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440179/original/file-20220111-21-zzh3bj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440179/original/file-20220111-21-zzh3bj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440179/original/file-20220111-21-zzh3bj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440179/original/file-20220111-21-zzh3bj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440179/original/file-20220111-21-zzh3bj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440179/original/file-20220111-21-zzh3bj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-03-30..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=total_cases_per_million&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=USA~AUS">Our Wold in Data</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>From one of the best COVID responses in the world to one of the worst, Australia has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.</p>
<h2>It’s not too late to limit the carnage</h2>
<p>The idea that health considerations <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/07/its-an-economic-crisis-too-in-nsw-what-a-difference-a-new-premier-makes">had to be balanced with economic interests</a> was always a false dichotomy. A healthy economy requires healthy workers and healthy consumers. </p>
<p>The Omicron surge has created an economic emergency that will be difficult to endure. </p>
<p>But it’s not too late to limit further avoidable contagion. Infection prevention practices (including masks, capacity limits, prohibitions on group indoor activities, PPE and distancing in workplaces, and free and accessible rapid tests) must be restored and enforced.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-covid-control-to-chaos-what-now-for-australia-two-pathways-lie-before-us-174325">From COVID control to chaos – what now for Australia? Two pathways lie before us</a>
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<p>Income supports for workers who stay home must be restored. Staffing strategies need to emphasise steady, secure jobs, rather than outsourcing and gig arrangements which have facilitated contagion.</p>
<p>Above all, our policy makers need to remember the economy is composed of human beings, and refocus their attention on keeping people healthy. Protecting people is the only thing that can protect the economy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/174606/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jim Stanford is a member of the Australian Services Union.</span></em></p>Some political and business leaders have, from the outset of COVID-19, downplayed the economic costs of mass illness. We’re now seeing the result.Jim Stanford, Economist and Director, Centre for Future Work, Australia Institute; Honorary Professor of Political Economy, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1695252021-10-08T01:47:59Z2021-10-08T01:47:59ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on the new NSW Premier, hospital funding, and a federal integrity commission<p>University of Canberra Professional Fellow Michelle Grattan and University of Canberra Associate Professor Caroline Fisher discuss the week in politics</p>
<p>This week they talk about the new NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet – his relationship with Scott Morrison, and his steps to differentiate himself from Gladys Berejiklian, with some changes to the road-map out of lockdown. </p>
<p>Meanwhile the hospital wars are back. All the states want more money from Canberra as they prepare for reopening. Scott Morrison is resisting, insisting they’ve had plenty of time and funding to get ready and targeting Queensland in particular. </p>
<p>After Berejiklian’s resignation, triggered by the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption’s probity investigation into her conduct, attention has turned to the federal government’s proposed integrity commission. Ahead of the introduction of the legislation, due soon, debate is raging over what should be the extent of its powers. </p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>University of Canberra Professional Fellow Michelle Grattan and University of Canberra Associate Professor Caroline Fisher discuss the week in politicsMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1691382021-10-04T05:37:06Z2021-10-04T05:37:06ZDominic Perrottet is set to become the next premier of NSW. Who is he?<p>In many ways, this is the worst possible time for a new premier to take the helm in New South Wales. The resignation of John Barilaro as deputy premier creates an even greater mood of uncertainty and, perhaps, insecurity. </p>
<p>The state is due to open up, at least partially, in the next week, and with the end of lockdown will come a need for a different type of leadership than has been exhibited over the past few months. Gladys Berejiklian has done a reasonable job during the pandemic, as can be seen from the outpouring of support, even grief, at her decision to call it a day. </p>
<p>However, there have also been many complaints about her government’s actions, particularly in the western suburbs of Sydney. She has at times appeared to be the premier for the north shore and eastern suburbs. For any Liberal premier of New South Wales, such a perception is extremely dangerous as elections are won in outer suburban and regional electorates. </p>
<p>In the 18 months before the next election, especially given the slender Coalition majority in the Legislative Assembly, the new premier will need to ensure, or at least create the perception, that the government is working on behalf of all of the state. </p>
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<p>Assuming Dominic Perrottet becomes the next premier, it is worth asking what he brings to that position and how it will affect the politics of the state over the next year. It is also worth pointing out that Perrottet, along with Planning Minister Rob Stokes, is from the north shore. That probably explains why he chose to run with Stuart Ayres, who represents the western Sydney seat of Penrith. </p>
<p>Both Perrottet and Ayres are quite young: Perrottet is 39; Ayres 41. They represent a new generation of leaders. </p>
<p>Perrottet grew up on the north shore, where he attended Redfield College and Oakhill College. Interestingly, neither school plays rugby league, compared to St Dominic’s College, Penrith, which Ayres attended and which counts among its alumni Nathan Cleary, Des Hasler and Brad Fittler. </p>
<p>Perrottet’s father works for the World Bank and he is one of 12 children. The family are religious Catholics. </p>
<p>Perrottet’s further education and career indicate he followed in his father’s footsteps in another way. He studied economics and law at university before working as a commercial lawyer. </p>
<p>He was elected to the state parliament in the landslide of 2011, at the tender age of 29. He quickly advanced up the ministerial ladder, primarily in economic portfolios. He began with finance in 2015, before advancing to industrial relations and then treasury and the deputy leadership of the Liberal Party in 2017. </p>
<p>Perrottet’s rise demonstrates he is very capable and intelligent, and he has “topped the class” of those candidates who went into parliament in 2011. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424398/original/file-20211004-13-d1ahzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424398/original/file-20211004-13-d1ahzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424398/original/file-20211004-13-d1ahzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424398/original/file-20211004-13-d1ahzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424398/original/file-20211004-13-d1ahzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424398/original/file-20211004-13-d1ahzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424398/original/file-20211004-13-d1ahzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Perrottet has risen quickly through the ranks since entering parliament in 2011.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Himbrechts/AAP</span></span>
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<p>But his career also says something about what it means to be on the right in the modern Liberal Party. In some ways, he resembles former Liberal leader Nick Greiner, as a highly financially literate technocrat who sees the world through a business lens. While Greiner’s policies resonated on the north shore and in safe Liberal seats, they were his Achille’s heel everywhere else. So in the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_New_South_Wales_state_election">1991 election</a>, Greiner increased his proportion of the vote in safe Liberal seats while losing crucial seats in other areas, leading to minority government. </p>
<p>The other important aspect of Perrottet’s persona is his conservative Catholicism. One of his original sponsors was MLC David Clarke, a well-known conservative Catholic and leader of the conservatives in the Liberal Party. He is pro-life and opposed to assisted dying. </p>
<p>Perrottet has claimed his personal religious beliefs do not affect his work in public life. In any case, he requires the support of the moderates, who hold quite different moral and social values, to get legislation through. </p>
<p>His economic and financial experience will be far more important for his role as premier. He is focused very much on the economy and, as treasurer, aware of the huge debt that the state has incurred. Back in July, he <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/treasurer-perrottet-in-rift-with-nsw-c">reportedly opposed</a> the extension of the current lockdown. He has also <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-04/dominic-perrottet-won-t-rule-out-changing-covid-19-exit-plan/100510994">indicated he could</a> change the current roadmap out of lockdown in the state. </p>
<p>In what seems to have been the perennial issue of the pandemic – public health versus the economy – there is no doubt Perrottet comes down on the side of the economy. </p>
<p>Certainly, the economy will loom larger as the state comes out of the worst of the pandemic. It is also the case that a focus on the economy will win him plaudits from the north shore, which has suffered fewer COVID cases than other areas of Sydney. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/stadiums-bushfires-and-a-pandemic-how-will-gladys-berejiklian-be-remembered-as-premier-169096">Stadiums, bushfires and a pandemic: how will Gladys Berejiklian be remembered as premier?</a>
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<p>The problem is that the state still has to navigate its way through the lifting of restrictions and the consequences of that action. It is not clear, despite high levels of vaccination, that all will be plain sailing. </p>
<p>Berejiklian honed her public relations skills during the pandemic and demonstrated a capacity to reassure the wider population that there was light at the end of the tunnel. Even so, she did not reach everyone. </p>
<p>Perrottet is largely untested in these matters. He will need to reassure the people of New South Wales that his focus is not just economic and financial. He could well ponder the fate of Nick Greiner. </p>
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<span class="caption">Gladys Berejiklian was able to reassure the people of NSW through the worst of the pandemic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joel Carrett/AAP</span></span>
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<p>That situation will not be made easier by Barilaro’s resignation. It is still somewhat of a mystery as to why he resigned. Could he <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-04/nsw-deputy-premier-john-barilaro-resigns/100511638">really have been pushed</a> into resignation by a nuisance YouTuber? </p>
<p>Whatever the reason, it will make the job of the new premier all the more difficult as it will be a new leadership team that seeks to guide NSW through largely uncharted waters. </p>
<p>How this new team handles those circumstances may well determine the outcome of the next state election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169138/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gregory Melleuish receives funding from the Australian Research Council</span></em></p>Perrottet’s conservative Catholicism has been much commented on, but it’s his economic background that likely gives a greater insight into the kind of premier he might be.Gregory Melleuish, Professor, School of Humanities and Social Inquiry, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.