Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Guy Debelle.
The bank’s decision to focus on just one thing puts the onus on the government to take action to rein in home prices.
Projections are often be repeatedly wrong. That’s because the models don’t learn from mistakes.
From wage growth to renewable energy to religion, projections are being treated as predictions. We’d be better off insisting on genuine forecasts.
Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Guy Debelle, Governor Philip Lowe, and assistant governors Luci Ellis and Michele Bullock at Friday’s parliamentary hearing in Canberra.
The Reserve Bank's best case scenario is that its forecasts are wrong.
As uncertain as 2019-20 is, The Conversation’s team of 20 leading economists are in broad agreement that the outlook isn’t good. Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will also have to deal with the unexpected.
Wes Mountain/The Conversation
The Conversation’s distinguished panel predicts unusually weak growth, dismal spending, no improvement in either unemployment or wage growth, and an increased chance of recession.
We can’t rely on consumer spending to keep us recession-free.
Expect two more interest rate cuts, but they mightn’t be enough.
Things will continue to look good enough for long enough to help the government fight the election. Beyond that, the Conversation Economic Panel is worried.
Wes Mountain/The Conversation
The Conversation has assembled a forecasting team of 19 academic economists from 12 universities across six states. Together, they assign a 25% probability to a recession within two years.
By Markus Schmidt-Karaca / Shutterstock
Independent research estimates that Theresa May’s deal could reduce UK GDP per capita by between 1.9% and 5.5% over ten years.
From the present financial year, the government will no longer be borrowing to pay for recurrent spending.
The 2017 budget update will show an improvement in the outlook for debt compared with projections in May.
The poll asked whether forecasting for the budget should be taken away from Treasury and be given to another independent agency.
Polled economists say another independent body wouldn’t necessairly do a better job of economic forecasting for the budget than Treasury.
If wages just grow at the rate of the last 12 months, rather than at the higher growth in the budget forecasts, income tax collections will be A$7 billion less for 2019-20.
Wonky forecasts show it’s time for a new approach that adopts more conservative forecasts, and makes a genuine commitment to budget repair.
The government’s budget documents are full of forecasts about where the economy is headed.
The budget is full of forecasts about where the economy is going, but other indicators are often more helpful.
May does not need an election to deliver Brexit.
Theresa May has read the economic runes – and called an election while she still confidently can.
South Africans take their cue from what Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan says about the country’s economic outlook.
Forecasts are crucial for all economic and business activity. But looking into the future involves uncertainty and risk. Forecasts may be inaccurate, which creates a serious dilemma for policy makers
All bark no bite? Green shoots of growth hide risks as well as opportunities.
Not too long ago, cynics were wondering if David Cameron’s fears over the global economy were a ploy to shift blame for any flaws in the UK’s performance as we near the May 2015 general election. However…