Economists are using models to try to determine what short- and long-term impacts the coronavirus pandemic will have on the global economy.
(AP Photo/Koji Sasahara)
As countries get ready to re-open their economies, will there be a post-pandemic recovery? History and current economic models suggest those looking for a quick rebound will be disappointed.
Australian National University modelling has a good record on predicting infections. Deaths will depend on the extent of the lockdown.
The same techniques used to model the SARS pandemic for the World Health Organisation produce results ranging from bad to catastrophic.
Eliminating stamp duty would bring on more real estate transactions, but that might not be a good thing.
The conventional case for swapping stamp duty for land tax will boost the economy has weak underpinnings.
Federal and state governments have put their hands up to fund airport rail links before we have even seen business cases.
Billions of taxpayer dollars are committed before all the evidence for, and against, infrastructure projects is in. As well as missing business cases, basic rules of economic modelling are broken.
The job market is still tough for many Americans.
AP Photo/Lynne Sladky
The May jobs report showed that US unemployment is at about a 50-year low. That’s not how it feels to many men who’ve never been to college.
Heinrich Leutemann [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons
There’s a surprising amount in common between ancient ways of thinking about the future and the techniques we use now.
There’s no direct evidence that taxing sugary drinks will lead to more consumption of alcohol.
A recent study was reported as saying a sugar tax would have us drinking more alcohol. But the study didn’t establish this fact. The results were mixed with no evidence one thing caused another.
People don’t evaluate government policies through mathematical models or with long-term goals in mind.
AAP/ Glenn Hunt
Treasury modelling suggests that limiting negative gearing will lead to small change in prices. But behavioural economics shows it all depends on how the policy is framed.
Still no clear skies for the federal government’s energy plans.
AAP Image/Lukas Coch
As federal and state energy ministers gather to discuss the Turnbull government’s proposed National Energy Guarantee, many of the finer details of the modelling are not yet available.
Modelling shows the NBN needs subsidies to have the most impact.
Almost half of eligible households haven’t connected to the NBN. New modelling shows the NBN needs subsidies if we want more people to connect and the economy to benefit from it.
The Conservatives may be willing to sacrifice what’s left of the UK’s beleaguered social model to maintain the City’s global status.
Sean McGee Hicks/Flickr
Ridiculed and ignored in 2016, what can the ‘dismal science’ offer us now?
South Africa’s economy will be hit hard if universities can’t finish the year.
Economic models suggest that South Africa’s GDP would fall, inequality would deepen and unemployment would rise if university graduates don’t enter the labour market in 2017.
Present and correct.
Economics struggles to explain the explosion of gift models at the heart of our online economy.
The report found that Sydney households face the highest transport costs of any city in Australia both in dollar terms and as a percentage of household income.
AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts
The Australian Automobile Association said that a new report showed that “the average Australian family is spending up to $22,000 every year to get around.” Is that accurate?
Protecting the Great Barrier Reef’s water quality finally has a hard dollar price on it.
A groundbreaking new economic study has found that investing A$8.2 billion would get us very close to hitting targets to cut water pollution into the Great Barrier Reef by 2025.
Good economic modelling does not overly simplify the world.
Image sourced from www.shutterstock.com
Economic modelling has been co-opted for political purposes and practitioners must respond.
Nordic nations enjoy regulated working hours, substantial welfare provision and strong economies.
At the end of this month Australia’s Productivity Commission will issue the final report of its inquiry into Early Childhood Education and Care. The inquiry was limited from the outset by the requirement…
Clouding the issue: the latest analysis of the impact of the Renewable Energy Target contradicts previous reports.
The review of the Renewable Energy Target is due to be handed to the federal government any day now, yet amazingly there are still conflicts over whether the policy makes electricity more or less expensive…