tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/election-aftermath-96421/articlesElection aftermath – The Conversation2021-01-07T02:10:33Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1528032021-01-07T02:10:33Z2021-01-07T02:10:33ZWas it a coup? No, but siege on US Capitol was the election violence of a fragile democracy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377439/original/file-20210106-15-jwk6ne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Insurrection at the US Capitol, Jan. 6, 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Did the United States just have a coup attempt? </p>
<p>Supporters of President Donald Trump, following his encouragement, stormed the U.S. Capitol building on Jan. 6, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-protesters-again-dispute-trumps-defeat-d-c-police-make-arrests-11609945368">disrupting the certification</a> of Joe Biden’s election victory. Waving Trump banners, <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/watch-hundreds-of-trump-supporters-storm-capitol-hill-break-fences-and-fight-with-police-2021-01-06">hundreds of people</a> broke through barricades and smashed windows to enter the building where Congress convenes. One <a href="https://www.fox5dc.com/news/woman-shot-killed-after-pro-trump-protesters-charged-us-capitol-identified">rioter and one police officer died</a> in the clash and <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/trump-us-capitol-dc-protest-2021-01-06/">several other police officers were hospitalized</a>. Congress went on lockdown.</p>
<p>While violent and shocking, what happened on Jan. 6 wasn’t a coup. </p>
<p>This Trumpist insurrection was election violence, much like the election violence that <a href="https://theconversation.com/once-you-engage-in-political-violence-it-becomes-easier-to-do-it-again-an-expert-on-political-violence-reflects-on-events-at-the-capitol-152801">plagues many fragile democracies</a>.</p>
<h2>What is a coup?</h2>
<p>While coups do not have a single definition, researchers who study them – <a href="https://oefresearch.org/activities/coup-cast">like ourselves</a> – agree on the key attributes of what academics call a “coup event.” </p>
<p>Coup experts <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0022343310397436">Jonathan Powell and Clayton Thyne</a> define a coup d’etat as “an overt attempt by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting head of state using unconstitutional means.”</p>
<p>Essentially, three parameters are used to judge whether an insurrection is a coup event:</p>
<p>1) Are the perpetrators agents of the state, such as military officials or rogue governmental officials? </p>
<p>2) Is the target of the insurrection the chief executive of the government?</p>
<p>3) Do the plotters use illegal and unconstitutional methods to seize executive power?</p>
<h2>Coups and coup attempts</h2>
<p>A successful coup occurred in Egypt on July 3, 2013, when army chief Abdel Fattah al-Sisi <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/04/world/middleeast/egypt.html">forcefully removed</a> the country’s unpopular president, Mohamed Morsi. Morsi, Egypt’s first democratically elected leader, had recently overseen the writing of a new constitution. Al-Sisi suspended that, too. This qualifies as a coup because al-Sisi seized power illegally and introduced his own rule of law in the ashes of the elected government. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377457/original/file-20210106-23-hydyzz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Civilians and soldiers in fatigues holding weapons cheer on a balcony, at night" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377457/original/file-20210106-23-hydyzz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377457/original/file-20210106-23-hydyzz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377457/original/file-20210106-23-hydyzz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377457/original/file-20210106-23-hydyzz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377457/original/file-20210106-23-hydyzz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377457/original/file-20210106-23-hydyzz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377457/original/file-20210106-23-hydyzz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Egyptian protesters celebrate the military overthrow of President Mohamed Morsi along with officers of the Egyptian Republican Guard, July 3, 2013, in Cairo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/egyptian-opposition-protesters-and-officers-of-the-egyptian-news-photo/172570168?adppopup=true">Ed Giles/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Coups don’t always succeed in overthrowing the government.</p>
<p>In 2016, members of the Turkish military <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-will-turkeys-failed-coup-and-massive-purge-affect-its-economic-future-62947">attempted to remove Turkey’s strongman president, Reçep Erdogan, from power</a>. Soldiers seized key areas in Ankara, the capital, and Istanbul, including the Bosphorus Bridge and two airports. But the coup lacked coordination and widespread support, and it <a href="https://warontherocks.com/2017/07/take-to-the-streets-turkeys-failed-coup-one-year-later/">failed quickly</a> after President Erdogan called on his supporters to confront the plotters. Erdogan remains in power today. </p>
<h2>What happened at the US Capitol?</h2>
<p>The uprising at the Capitol building does not meet all three criteria of a coup.</p>
<p>Trump’s rioting supporters targeted a branch of executive authority – Congress – and they did so illegally, through trespassing and property destruction. Categories #2 and #3, check.</p>
<p>As for category #1, the rioters appeared to be civilians operating of their own volition, not state actors. President Trump did <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2021/01/06/washington-dc-protest-twitter-facebook-silence-donald-trump/6569864002/">incite his followers</a> to march on the Capitol building less than an hour before the crowd invaded the grounds, insisting the election had been stolen and saying “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-protests/trump-invited-supporters-to-wild-protest-and-told-them-to-fight-they-did-idUSKBN29B24S">We will not take it anymore</a>.” This comes after months of spreading unfounded electoral lies and conspiracies that created a perception of government malfeasance in the mind of many Trump supporters. </p>
<p>Whether the president’s motivation in inflaming the anger of his supporters was to assault Congress is not clear, and he tepidly <a href="https://abc7.com/president-donald-trump-news-twitter-washington-dc-protest/9414371">told them to go home as the violence escalated</a>. For now it seems the riot in Washington, D.C., was enacted without the approval, aid or active leadership of government actors like the military, police or <a href="https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1346911179042484230">sympathetic GOP officials</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377475/original/file-20210107-14-pnllvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A Congress staffer holds his hands up while Capitol Police SWAT team clears an office" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377475/original/file-20210107-14-pnllvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377475/original/file-20210107-14-pnllvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377475/original/file-20210107-14-pnllvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377475/original/file-20210107-14-pnllvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377475/original/file-20210107-14-pnllvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377475/original/file-20210107-14-pnllvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377475/original/file-20210107-14-pnllvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">SWAT police try to clear the Capitol building of pro-Trump rioters, Jan. 6, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/congress-staffer-holds-his-hands-up-while-capitol-police-news-photo/1230457711?adppopup=true">Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>American political elites are hardly blameless, though. </p>
<p>By spreading conspiracy theories about election fraud, numerous Republican senators, including <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/1/4/22213246/republican-senators-hawley-cruz-cotton-trump-electoral-college-presidential-election-joe-biden">Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz</a>, created the conditions for political violence in the United States, and specifically electoral-related violence. </p>
<p>Academics have documented that <a href="https://politicalviolenceataglance.org/2020/10/13/assessing-the-risk-of-electoral-violence-in-the-united-states/">contentious political rhetoric</a> fuels the risk of election-related violence. Elections are high-stakes; they represent a transfer of political power. When <a href="https://www.dartmouth.edu/%7Enyhan/democratic-norms.pdf">government officials demean and discredit democratic institutions</a> as a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09546550902950290">simmering political conflict</a> is underway, contested elections can trigger political violence and mob rule.</p>
<h2>So what did happen?</h2>
<p>The shocking events of Jan. 6 were political violence of the sort that too often mars elections in young or unstable democracies. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2015/01/22/world/bangladesh-protests-violence-arrests/index.html">Bangladeshi elections suffer from</a> perennial mob violence and political insurrections due to years of government violence and opposition anger. Its 2015 and 2018 elections looked more like war zones than democratic transitions.</p>
<p>In Cameroon, armed dissidents perpetrated violence in the <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/02/12/cameroon-election-violence-anglophone-regions">2020 election</a>, targeting government buildings, opposition figures and innocent bystanders alike. Their aim was to delegitimize the vote in response to sectarian violence and government overreach. </p>
<p>The United States’ electoral violence differs in cause and context from that seen in Bangladesh and Cameroon, but the action was similar. The U.S. didn’t have a coup, but this Trump-encouraged insurrection is likely to send the country down a politically and socially turbulent road. </p>
<p><em>This story has been updated to reflect the death toll of the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152803/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clayton Besaw is a senior analyst with the One Earth Future Foundation and the Open Nuclear Network, a non-profit organization that promotes peace and security in post-conflict countries and the mitigation of nuclear weapons proliferation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Frank is an analyst with the One Earth Future Foundation and the Open Nuclear Network, a non-profit organization that promotes peace and security in post-conflict countries and the mitigation of nuclear weapon proliferation.</span></em></p>Trump supporters stormed the US Capitol on Jan. 6, disrupting Congress’s certification of Joe Biden as president-elect. Coup experts explain this violent insurrection wasn’t technically a coup.Clayton Besaw, Research Affiliate and Senior Analyst, University of Central FloridaMatthew Frank, Master's student, International Security, University of DenverLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1526652021-01-05T16:43:01Z2021-01-05T16:43:01ZWhy Trump’s Senate supporters can’t overturn Electoral College results they don’t like – here’s how the law actually works<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377095/original/file-20210104-21-k0xd80.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3344%2C2222&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Vice President Mike Pence says he 'welcomes' objections to Biden's Electoral College win, but House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other House Democrats reject any such effort.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vice-president-mike-pence-and-house-speaker-rep-nancy-news-photo/1198674573?adppopup=true">Sarah Silbiger/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Jan. 6, the United States Congress will gather in a joint session to tally the votes of the Electoral College, which <a href="https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-270-electoral-college-vote-d429ef97af2bf574d16463384dc7cc1e">cast its ballots in state capitols last month</a>. In his role as president of the Senate, Vice President Mike Pence is slated to officially announce Joe Biden as the country’s next president. </p>
<p>This formal certification process – the <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-formally-declares-the-winner-of-the-us-presidential-election-145212">final step in the U.S. presidential election</a> – is the latest target of President Donald Trump’s desperate, untenable and <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democrats-trump-georgia-phone-call/">possibly criminal effort</a> to overturn the 2020 results. In his <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/31/doj-slams-lawsuit-that-wants-pence-to-void-biden-win-for-trump.html">refusal to concede</a>, Trump is <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2021/01/04/trump-targets-pence-georgia-republicans-at-rally-for-gop-senate-candidates/">pressuring Pence and Republicans</a> in Congress to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/02/11-republican-senators-push-to-delay-certification-of-election-results.html">delay or oppose certification</a>.</p>
<p>Can they really subvert the Electoral College? The answer, both <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-theres-so-much-legal-uncertainty-about-resolving-a-disputed-presidential-election-146960">legally and politically</a>, is no. </p>
<h2>No rubber stamp</h2>
<p>The congressional joint session on Jan. 6 is not a mere formality. The <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/3/15">Electoral Count Act of 1887</a> requires Congress to convene and review – rather than simply rubber stamp – Electoral College results.</p>
<p>This statute was a delayed response to the contested presidential election of 1876. That year, Republicans backing candidate Rutherford B. Hayes alleged voter fraud in four states favoring Democrat Samuel Tilden, forcing Congress to appoint an independent commission to resolve <a href="https://theconversation.com/congress-could-select-the-president-in-a-disputed-election-149580">20 disputed electoral votes</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377093/original/file-20210104-21-e6vu1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Black and white drawing of men around a table" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377093/original/file-20210104-21-e6vu1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377093/original/file-20210104-21-e6vu1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377093/original/file-20210104-21-e6vu1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377093/original/file-20210104-21-e6vu1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377093/original/file-20210104-21-e6vu1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377093/original/file-20210104-21-e6vu1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377093/original/file-20210104-21-e6vu1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Electoral Commission of 1877 holds a secret session by candlelight in Washington, D.C., to decide the 1876 presidential election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-electoral-commission-of-1877-holds-a-secret-session-by-news-photo/3094797?adppopup=true">From Frank Leslie's Illustrated Newspaper. Photo by MPI/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>The nominally bipartisan commission, comprised of five senators, five House representatives and five Supreme Court justices, awarded the disputed electors to Hayes, allowing him to narrowly prevail in the Electoral College by 185 to 184 electoral votes. The proceedings left a cloud over Hayes, who got the sobriquet “<a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2014/10/30/360126710/the-place-where-rutherford-b-hayes-is-a-really-big-deal">Rutherfraud B. Hayes</a>.” </p>
<p>Congress was chastened, too, by the prolonged electoral dispute. To minimize the likelihood that they would ever again decide the outcome of a presidential election, lawmakers in 1887 passed the Electoral Count Act. </p>
<p>It puts the onus for resolving electoral disputes on the states. As long as they do so, certifying their election results no later than six days before the Electoral College meets to cast its votes, then states will enjoy “safe harbor” protection. That means their results will be considered “conclusive” when <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL32717/13">Congress convenes to certify the vote</a> on Jan. 6. </p>
<h2>Certification day challenges</h2>
<p>In 2020, every state certified its election results before the Dec. 8 “safe harbor” deadline. Joe Biden won 306 electoral votes, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-ap-top-news-elections-655467f44d560f953000b279cb4795ad">surpassing the 270 votes needed to become president-elect</a>, and Donald Trump won 232. Congress is legally obliged to defer to those state decisions.</p>
<p>Even conclusive results can be challenged, though. </p>
<p>According to the Electoral Count Act, if both a member of the House and a member of the Senate agree that an objection has merit, the House and the Senate must reconvene separately and deliberate for no more than two hours before voting to uphold or reject that objection. A majority in each house must vote to uphold.</p>
<p>To overturn an election result, Congress would have to disqualify enough electoral votes to deprive one candidate of the 270 votes needed to win. The House would then choose the next president based on an unusual <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-formally-declares-the-winner-of-the-us-presidential-election-145212">voting system specified in Article II of the Constitution</a>.</p>
<p>Challenges have happened before, albeit rarely, but an election result has never been overturned.</p>
<p>On Jan. 6, 2005, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer joined a few House Democrats challenging George W. Bush’s win in Ohio due to voting irregularities. Boxer stated that her objection was meant to highlight “significant disenfranchisement of voters” in Ohio. Neither she nor John Kerry, the Democratic presidential candidate, challenged the 2004 election’s outcome.</p>
<p>Both chambers of Congress <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2005/ALLPOLITICS/01/06/electoral.vote/">rejected the challenge</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377096/original/file-20210104-15-4n22w7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Boxer and Jones in front of a bank of microphones" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377096/original/file-20210104-15-4n22w7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377096/original/file-20210104-15-4n22w7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377096/original/file-20210104-15-4n22w7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377096/original/file-20210104-15-4n22w7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377096/original/file-20210104-15-4n22w7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377096/original/file-20210104-15-4n22w7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377096/original/file-20210104-15-4n22w7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer and U.S. Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones announce their objection to the certification of Ohio electoral votes Jan. 6, 2005.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/senator-barbara-boxer-speaks-as-u-s-representative-news-photo/51921330?adppopup=true">Mark Wilson/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Trump v. Pence</h2>
<p>On Jan. 6, at least a dozen Republican Senators in Congress say they will <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/13/us/politics/trump-allies-election-overturn-congress-pence.html">oppose the results in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Michigan</a> over discredited concerns of election fraud in an attempt to swing 63 electoral votes from Biden to Trump. There is no chance Democrats, who control the House of Representatives, will vote to uphold this challenge. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/12/22/its-time-mike-pence-choose-trump-or-truth/">Unless he recuses himself</a> and hands the job over the Senate president pro tempore – <a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/will-pence-recuse/">as Vice President Hubert Humphrey did in January 1969</a> – Pence will have the ceremonial but politically consequential role of presiding over a contested certification. </p>
<p>After the sealed certificates of vote from the 50 U.S. states and Washington, D.C., are brought into the joint session in ceremonial mahogany boxes, the vice president opens the 51 envelopes one at a time and hands them to the designated “tellers.” As the tellers announce each state’s results aloud and record the votes for tabulation, the vice president “calls for objections, if any.” </p>
<p>If Republicans object, a vote follows in both chambers of Congress. When the challengers cannot gain the necessary support, Pence should declare Biden president-elect. </p>
<p>Pence is constitutionally bound to perform this duty, but Trump says <a href="https://deadline.com/2021/01/donald-trump-mike-pence-georgia-1234664842/">confirming Biden’s win would be a betrayal</a>. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>An American president orchestrating an attempt to reverse an election – with <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/02/ted-cruz-electoral-college-challenge-453430">at least a dozen senators falling in step</a> – does profound harm to democracy, which hinges on the peaceful transfer of power. Republicans, and most visibly Mike Pence, face a choice between fidelity to the Constitution and fidelity to Trump.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152665/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Donald Brand is affiliated with College Republicans at College of the Holy Cross.</span></em></p>The 1887 Electoral Count Act spells out the process for Congress to convene and review election results on Jan. 6, and it requires both the House and Senate to uphold any challenges to Biden’s win.Donald Brand, Professor, Political Science Department, College of the Holy CrossLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1505192020-12-22T19:59:58Z2020-12-22T19:59:58ZCan Joe Biden ‘heal’ the United States? Political experts disagree<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375975/original/file-20201218-15-ahtn0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C97%2C5410%2C3501&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Trump supporter and an anti-Trump demonstrator shout at each other near Black Lives Matter Plaza in Washington, D.C., Nov. 14, 2020.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/trump-supporter-and-an-anti-trump-demonstrator-shout-at-news-photo/1229623256?adppopup=true">Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: When Joe Biden becomes president on Jan. 20, 2021, he will lead a fractured nation whose political factions are separated by a chasm. In his victory speech, Biden <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/biden-speech-transcript.html">asked Americans to “come together”</a> and “stop treating opponents as enemies.”</em> </p>
<p><em>Is healing possible between red America and blue America? We asked experts on political polarization whether Biden’s goal is realistic.</em> </p>
<h2>How to thaw enmity and disdain</h2>
<p>-<em>Arie W. Kruglanski</em></p>
<p>The image of <a href="https://time.com/5907318/polarization-2020-election">two monolithic cultures at loggerheads</a>, though perhaps intuitive and appealing, is a myth that doesn’t hold up on closer scrutiny. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14792779643000100">political psychologist</a> who has investigated radicalization, polarization and populism, I believe a “two tents” metaphor would be more accurate. </p>
<p>If you look at 2020 election data, you’ll find both the Trump and Biden camps contained diverse points of view, interests and concerns.</p>
<p>Within the Trump tent were Republican stalwarts bent on <a href="https://www.americanprogressaction.org/issues/economy/reports/2020/01/29/175720/working-class-americans-states-support-progressive-economic-policies">fiscal conservatism but also working-class backers of progressive economic policies</a> who supported President Donald Trump for cultural reasons and evangelical Christians passionately against abortion. Present were white “America First” adherents who were vociferously anti-immigration but <a href="https://www.voanews.com/usa/us-politics/once-ardent-trump-supporters-white-nationalists-splinter-ahead-presidential-vote">hold anti-corporation sentiments typically voiced by liberals</a>; Latinos who themselves are immigrants; and African Americans who saw <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/10/is-there-room-for-black-conservatives-in-the-gop-when-the-president-is-racist/">pro-business policies as a route to economic advancement</a>.</p>
<p>Biden’s supporters were urban and suburban dwellers who differed in many ways but shared concern about the mishandling of COVID-19. His tent contained centrist Democrats and economic socialists, Black Americans intent on addressing systemic racism and members of the LGBTQ community defending their rights. </p>
<p>These tents overlap, and many Americans have walked from one tent to the other. Trump won <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/opinion/trump-biden-voters.html">more Black and Latino votes than any Republican in 60 years</a>. But millions of evangelicals he won in 2016 <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/opinion/trump-biden-voters.html">voted this year for Democrats, including Biden</a>. There have been <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/unprecedented-rift-republicans-puts-partys-survival-limbo-experts/story?id=42723582">notable rifts among Republicans</a>, and a significant coterie of high-profile GOP party members <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/11/03/nation/they-voted-republican-years-this-time-james-comey-host-others-backed-biden/">supported Biden</a>.</p>
<p>Across the political spectrum, American voters say they want the president to be a uniter rather than a divider. In October 2020, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/06/2020-election-reveals-two-broad-voting-coalitions-fundamentally-at-odds/">89% of Biden backers and 86% of Trump backers said they wanted their candidate to address the needs of all Americans</a>. They delivered the White House to Biden, a candidate who emphasized unity over resentments, while supporting Republicans in Congress.</p>
<p>Such election results signal that Americans are resistant to either party’s domination, which is effectively a call for collaboration. With society shocked by COVID-19 casualties and Trump’s unconventional presidency, the pieces of the American political puzzle may fit together in novel ways. </p>
<p>Toning down the rhetoric, resisting extremism, avoiding vindictiveness and stressing pragmatic solutions can build up a common ground that will mend the fraying fabric of our society.</p>
<p><em>Dan Raviv, an author and media analyst, contributed to this article.</em></p>
<h2>America’s political divide will be very hard to heal</h2>
<p><em>-Robert Talisse</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375977/original/file-20201218-15-1m595xg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People yelling at each other and pointing fingers" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375977/original/file-20201218-15-1m595xg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375977/original/file-20201218-15-1m595xg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375977/original/file-20201218-15-1m595xg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375977/original/file-20201218-15-1m595xg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375977/original/file-20201218-15-1m595xg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375977/original/file-20201218-15-1m595xg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375977/original/file-20201218-15-1m595xg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A counterprotester clashes with a supporter of President Donald Trump at a political rally, Dec. 12, 2020, Olympia, Wash.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/counter-protester-taunts-a-supporter-of-president-donald-news-photo/1230095392?adppopup=true">David Ryder/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In his victory speech, Joe Biden said that partisanship “is not due to some mysterious force” but “a choice we make,” asking Americans to “give each other a chance.” </p>
<p>His advice for doing that: “listen.”</p>
<p>Other <a href="https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/readers-opinion/guest-commentary/article247731660.html">political analysts have advised listening</a>, too, as a way to heal America’s divide. </p>
<p>But lack of listening isn’t the problem here. My <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/overdoing-democracy-9780190924195?cc=us&lang=en&">research</a> on polarization shows <a href="https://theconversation.com/political-polarization-is-about-feelings-not-facts-120397">political divisions have more to do with negative feelings</a> toward opponents than with misunderstanding their views. When those feelings are intense, as they are right now, listening can actually deepen divisions. So when opponents speak, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12487">partisans hear only distortion and hypocrisy</a>. </p>
<p>As a result, Americans today see their opponents as untrustworthy, dishonest, unpatriotic, threatening and even <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/13/america-is-exceptional-in-the-nature-of-its-political-divide/">harmful to the nation</a>, according to recent polling by the Pew Research Center. Bitter partisanship has rendered Americans <a href="https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/openfordebate/2019/05/30/what-polarization-does-to-us/">unable to treat their opponents as democratic partners</a>. </p>
<p>Research shows that <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/115/37/9216">momentary exposure to political messages that slightly oppose our own</a> typically intensifies animosity toward rivals. And <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/40587320?seq=1">when opponents attempt to correct us, we commonly double down and escalate</a>. That’s why even fact-checking Trump’s tweets <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/11/25/when-twitter-fact-checks-trumps-tweets-it-polarizes-americans-even-more-our-research-finds/">amplifies divisions</a>: When Twitter marks a Trump tweet as misleading, research finds, Republicans grow more inclined to believe it, while Democrats grow less inclined. </p>
<p>Listening can heal only when our divides lie within democracy’s mutual ground – the basic principle that, despite their differences, citizens are political equals. Today’s bitter partisanship <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/13/america-is-exceptional-in-the-nature-of-its-political-divide/">has eroded</a> this mutual ground in the United States.</p>
<p>In order to heal, Americans must recover the democratic mutual ground. Doing so would require rehabilitating people’s views of their fellow citizens. That is, Americans would need to see other Americans as people first, independently of their partisan affiliation. </p>
<p><a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/overdoing-democracy-9780190924195?cc=us&lang=en&">This isn’t easy</a>. Partisan division is a feature of our everyday social environments, with Republicans and Democrats often living <a href="https://theconversation.com/partisan-divide-creates-different-americas-separate-lives-122925">entirely different kinds of lives</a>. </p>
<p>If we <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12485">already define ourselves and others in terms of partisan loyalties</a>, the road to healing does not run through more political dialogue. Instead, Americans would need to do things together that have nothing to do with politics, engaging in activities that in no way express our partisan loyalties – volunteering with a community organization, for example, or joining a <a href="https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/bowling-alone-at-twenty">bowling league</a>.</p>
<p>Yet <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12485">opportunities for this kind of nonpartisan interaction have dwindled</a>. And how do you heal a nation through bowling, anyway? You can’t, of course. Meanwhile, all the big stuff Americans do as a nation, from voting to raising families, is tinged with partisanship. </p>
<p>Until we can put politics in its right place – and I can’t fathom when that will be – partisan divides will persist.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150519/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Biden’s winning campaign message was one of unity. But even the people who study polarization can’t agree on whether it’s possible to unify the United States.Arie Kruglanski, Professor of Psychology, University of MarylandRobert B. Talisse, W. Alton Jones Professor of Philosophy, Vanderbilt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1505032020-12-14T13:27:48Z2020-12-14T13:27:48ZPuerto Rico wants statehood – but only Congress can make it the 51st state in the United States<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374484/original/file-20201211-13-6usp2z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">As an unincorporated U.S. territory, Puerto Rico has fewer constitutional and political rights than a state.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/flags-usa-and-puerto-rico-together-a-symbol-royalty-free-illustration/1279603117?adppopup=true">ankmsn/Getty</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Puerto Ricans <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/puerto-ricans-voted-for-statehood-will-it-happen">requested statehood on Nov. 3, 2020</a>, with <a href="http://elecciones2020.ceepur.org/Noche_del_Evento_92/index.html#en/default/PLEBISCITO_Resumen.xml">52.3%</a> of voters asking to change the island’s status from unincorporated territory to U.S. state. </p>
<p>This is the sixth time statehood has been on the ballot since Puerto Rico ratified its Constitution in 1952. Voters rejected the status change in <a href="https://electionspuertorico.org/cgi-bin/events.cgi?evento=1967">1967</a>, <a href="https://electionspuertorico.org/cgi-bin/events.cgi?evento=1993">1993</a> and <a href="https://electionspuertorico.org/cgi-bin/events.cgi?evento=1998">1998</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://electionspuertorico.org/cgi-bin/eventos.cgi?evento=2012&voto=o">2012 election results were unclear</a> because some voters did not answer both parts of a two-part statehood question. <a href="http://resultados2017.ceepur.org/Escrutinio_General_79/index.html#en/default/CONSULTA_DE_ESTATUS_Resumen.xml">In 2017</a> statehood won decisively, albeit with very low turnout of around 23%.</p>
<p>Puerto Rico didn’t become the 51st state then, and it is unlikely to achieve statehood any time soon. Only Congress can <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/article-4/section-3/">add new states to the Union</a>, via an <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/1965/text">Admission Act or House Resolution</a> that requires approval by a simple majority in the House and Senate. </p>
<h2>Territorial status</h2>
<p>The United States wrested Puerto Rico from Spain in the 1898 Spanish-American War, along with Cuba, the Philippines and the Mariana Islands. </p>
<p>Shortly after, a series of Supreme Court rulings called the “<a href="https://digitalcommons.law.yale.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1652&context=ylpr">Insular Cases</a>” – made by the same court that found racial segregation constitutional in <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1850-1900/163us537">Plessy v. Ferguson</a> – deemed most of America’s new territories to be inhabited by “<a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/182/1/">alien races</a>,” ungovernable by “Anglo-Saxon principles.” </p>
<p>These cases labeled America’s island territories as incorporated or unincorporated, each with a different set of rights. Puerto Rico is an unincorporated territory. It is similar to U.S. states in many ways but its taxpaying residents lack voting representation in Congress, cannot vote for president and do not enjoy <a href="https://www.gao.gov/archive/1998/og98005.pdf">all the same constitutional rights</a> as other Americans. </p>
<p>Without a vote in Congress, Puerto Rico’s needs are not well represented in Washington.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374486/original/file-20201211-19-wcl8hs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Line of people in face masks outside a building" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374486/original/file-20201211-19-wcl8hs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374486/original/file-20201211-19-wcl8hs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374486/original/file-20201211-19-wcl8hs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374486/original/file-20201211-19-wcl8hs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374486/original/file-20201211-19-wcl8hs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374486/original/file-20201211-19-wcl8hs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374486/original/file-20201211-19-wcl8hs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The line to vote in San Juan, Puerto Rico, Nov. 3, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/puerto-ricans-queue-to-vote-in-the-general-election-in-san-news-photo/1229443411?adppopup=true">Alejandro Granadillo/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Puerto Rico’s legal status all but defines politics on the island. </p>
<p>Rather than offering clear left- or right-wing policies, Puerto Rico’s two main political parties are <a href="http://www.jpinyu.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/6._rashid_final.pdf">traditionally defined by their stance on statehood</a>. The Popular Democratic Party generally favors keeping Puerto Rico a territory; the New Progressive Party is pro-statehood. Both have Democratic- and Republican-aligned members. </p>
<p>The New Progressive Party’s grip on the statehood cause loosened in 2020. Some 215,000 Puerto Ricans who voted for statehood voted against its <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/puerto-rico-pro-statehood-candidate-pedro-pierluisi-holds-gubernatorial-lead-n1246398">pro-statehood gubernatorial candidate, Pedro Pierluisi Urrutia</a>, who won his race very narrowly. The New Progressive Party’s candidate for <a href="http://elecciones2020.ceepur.org/Noche_del_Evento_92/index.html#en/default/COMISIONADO_RESIDENTE_Resumen.xml">resident commissioner</a> – Puerto Rico’s nonvoting delegate to the U.S. House of Representatives – received 132,000 fewer votes than statehood did. </p>
<h2>Statehood in 2020</h2>
<p>All these split tickets reflect a broader political upheaval taking place in Puerto Rico after a rocky half-decade. </p>
<p>Since 2015, Puerto Rico has defaulted on <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-there-life-after-debt-for-puerto-rico-61539">parts of its debt</a>, undergone a fiscal crisis, been ravaged by <a href="https://theconversation.com/puerto-rico-has-not-recovered-from-hurricane-maria-103288">Hurricane Maria</a> and survived a <a href="https://www.census.gov/topics/preparedness/events/earthquakes/2020-puerto-rico.html">rare series of “cluster earthquakes.”</a> <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/URLs_Cited/OT2019/18-1334/18-1334-1.pdf">Economic recovery</a> has been weak and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/12/us/puerto-rico-bottled-water-dump-weir/index.html">disaster recovery since Maria</a> was <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/article239497583.html">botched</a> by <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/article239497583.html">local corruption</a> and <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/hud-withholds-18-billion-disaster-aid-puerto-rico-lawmakers-threaten-fight-back-denying-1475635">federal indolence</a>.</p>
<p>Discontent with Puerto Rican leadership, <a href="https://theintercept.com/2019/07/24/puerto-rico-protests-ricardo-rossello-la-junta/">aggravated by the fiscal austerity</a> imposed by a Washington-controlled federal board, culminated last year in massive protests. Gov. Ricardo Rosselló Nevares stepped down in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0094582X20906509">August 2019</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374487/original/file-20201211-13-fbn64u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Puerto Rican flags and signs above a crowd" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374487/original/file-20201211-13-fbn64u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374487/original/file-20201211-13-fbn64u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374487/original/file-20201211-13-fbn64u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374487/original/file-20201211-13-fbn64u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374487/original/file-20201211-13-fbn64u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374487/original/file-20201211-13-fbn64u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374487/original/file-20201211-13-fbn64u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Protesters in Old San Juan celebrate after Ricardo Rosselló stepped down on Aug. 2, 2019. A sign reads ‘Bye, bye Ricky. Thanks for nothing. See you never.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sign-reads-bye-bye-ricky-thanks-for-nothing-see-you-never-news-photo/1159258440?adppopup=true">Jose Jimenez/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After Rosselló’s resignation, his New Progressive Party had a very <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/07/us/puerto-rico-new-governor-court-decision/index.html">public fight</a> regarding the succession process. A <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/puerto-rico-s-chaotic-unfinished-primaries-spur-voter-suppression-concerns-n1236393">chaotic primary</a> pitted its Republican- and Democrat-aligned factions against each other. </p>
<p>All the <a href="https://periodismoinvestigativo.com/2019/07/the-889-pages-of-the-telegram-chat-between-rossello-nevares-and-his-closest-aides/">drama and corruption</a> seems to have left many statehood supporters in Puerto Rico fed up with the New Progressive Party, and politics in general. </p>
<p>By the 2020 election, new parties with clearer ideological offerings – like the progressive, populist <a href="https://www.mvcpr.org">Citizen Victory Movement</a> and the right-wing, religiously based <a href="https://www.proyectodignidad.org">Dignity Project</a> – had cropped up. These upstart parties – along with Puerto Rico’s longstanding third party, the independence-minded, social-democratic Independence Party – pledged to make government work better, and some <a href="https://nacla.org/news/2020/12/01/puerto-rico-elections-new-opposition">outsider candidates</a> actually <a href="https://www.elvocero.com/politica/hist-rico-write-in-para-la-alcald-a-de-gu-nica/article_b72fd0bc-1f2a-11eb-a49e-8348bb702dfc.html">won</a>.</p>
<p>Puerto Rico’s new parties mostly did not endorse a particular choice on the 2020 statehood referendum, promising to respect whatever the result was.</p>
<p>Some third-party candidates did <a href="https://www.theweeklyjournal.com/politics/puerto-rico-candidates-face-off-in-heated-debate/article_8e0a379c-f9b7-11ea-ac78-93f39d3d8405.html">float alternatives to Puerto Rico’s frequent</a>, nonbinding referenda on statehood. The New York Democratic representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/puerto-rico-not-congress-must-determine-its-future-our-bill-ncna1238032">has championed</a> a proposal to create a “status assembly,” a convention of delegates who would craft concrete proposals on statehood, independence and a <a href="https://theglobepost.com/2019/12/31/puerto-rico-free-association/">looser “free association” relationship with the U.S.</a> Those proposals would then be negotiated with Congress and voted on by the Puerto Rican electorate.</p>
<p>In 2020, however, statehood was the only option on the ballot, and Puerto Ricans voted “yes.” </p>
<p>[<em>Get our most insightful politics and election stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-most">Sign up for The Conversation’s Politics Weekly</a>.]</p>
<h2>All eyes on Georgia</h2>
<p>Any hope of congressional followup on this referendum <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/what-do-u-s-senate-runoffs-georgia-have-do-puerto-n1250033">hinges almost entirely on Georgia’s Senate runoff on Jan. 5, 2021</a>. </p>
<p>If the Democrats win both Georgia Senate seats to gain a Senate majority, Sen. Chuck Schumer has <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fifty-two-states-schumer-promises-statehood-for-dc-and-puerto-rico/ar-BB19Cczc">vowed to pursue Puerto Rican statehood</a>. If the Republicans retain the majority, however, Senate Leader Mitch McConnell <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/09/09/puerto-rico-statehood-politics-democrats-republicans-senate-409191">and other Republican senators</a> would almost certainly block any effort to make Puerto Rico a state. </p>
<p>Puerto Rican voters on the mainland usually vote Democratic, so most Republicans perceive statehood as a political threat, although Pew Research finds <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/29/key-findings-about-puerto-rico/">Puerto Ricans on the island are a socially conservative crowd</a>. Only a few Republican officials, such as Florida’s <a href="https://twitter.com/senrubiopress/status/1329110755451555840?s=21">Marco Rubio</a> and <a href="https://www.orlandosentinel.com/politics/os-ne-puerto-rico-statehood-20201120-bcoahvrtujgsdgbicysqw5kwku-story.html">Rick Scott</a>, say they would support Puerto Rican statehood.</p>
<p>For now, all <a href="https://www.elnuevodia.com/corresponsalias/washington-dc/notas/candidato-democrata-al-senado-federal-por-georgia-respalda-la-estadidad-para-puerto-rico-y-washington-dc/">eyes are on Georgia</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150503/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rashid Carlos Jamil Marcano Rivera does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Lawmakers are unlikely to grant Puerto Rico’s request for admission into the Union – unless, perhaps, the Democrats win both Senate seats in Georgia’s Jan. 5 runoff election.Rashid Carlos Jamil Marcano Rivera, Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1505082020-12-09T13:19:02Z2020-12-09T13:19:02ZForeign policy is Biden’s best bet for bipartisan action, experts say – but GOP is unlikely to join him on climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373620/original/file-20201208-21-tadscl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C31%2C4153%2C2729&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">As vice president, Joe Biden – seen here on left, in 2016 – had a working relationship with the Republican Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell. Is that possible now?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vice-president-joe-biden-left-and-senate-majority-leader-news-photo/504733202?adppopup=true">Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Republicans and Democrats may have more common ground than it seems, a new survey finds. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-11-03/americans-want-engage-world">Our survey</a> – conducted in August and September in partnership with the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the University of Texas at Austin – asked more than 800 government officials, congressional staffers, researchers, journalists and advocates to assess the likelihood of unified American efforts to address critical international challenges by 2022. They identified several foreign policy issues where building bipartisan policies was “more likely than not.” </p>
<p>Bipartisanship was one of the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/bidens-illusory-bipartisanship/616431/">central messages of President-elect Joe Biden’s campaign</a>. </p>
<p>Our research did not assess the possibility of unified action on domestic issues, which many experts <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/20/us/politics/biden-congress.html">see as exceedingly unlikely</a>. But it found four foreign policy issues where Democrats and Republicans might come together.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373622/original/file-20201208-19-asyhv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Trump stands with a document in front of him, surrounded by people including Vice President Mike Pense and son-in-law Jared Kushner" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373622/original/file-20201208-19-asyhv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373622/original/file-20201208-19-asyhv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373622/original/file-20201208-19-asyhv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373622/original/file-20201208-19-asyhv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373622/original/file-20201208-19-asyhv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373622/original/file-20201208-19-asyhv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373622/original/file-20201208-19-asyhv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Trump at the signing of the United States-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement on Jan. 29.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-stands-after-signing-the-united-news-photo/1197377744?adppopup=true">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<h2>1. China</h2>
<p>Behind the poisonous partisanship on display in Washington, Democrats and Republicans mostly <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-07/bipartisan-foreign-policy-still-possible">agree on U.S.-China policy</a>. </p>
<p>During the Trump administration, Congress acted in a bipartisan manner to sanction China for persecuting <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-xinjiang/trump-signs-bill-pressuring-china-over-uighur-muslim-crackdown-idUSKBN23O3EW">the Uighurs</a>, a Muslim ethnic minority, and for <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/14/trump-hong-kong-china-sanctions-361636">repressing pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong</a>. </p>
<p>Democrats and Republicans also agreed that the United States needed to overhaul how it <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-development/congress-eying-china-votes-to-overhaul-development-finance-idUSKCN1MD2HJ">finances overseas development</a> to compete with China, which has <a href="https://theconversation.com/china-turns-on-the-charm-and-angers-trump-as-it-eyes-a-global-opportunity-in-coronavirus-crisis-136132">earned goodwill from Africa to Latin America</a> by building roads, dams and other critical infrastructure. </p>
<p>More than nine out of 10 foreign policy officials and experts we surveyed thought it at least somewhat likely that the U.S. will make a major effort during the next two years to counter the continuing rise of China. Among those who expect such an effort, 87% think it is more likely than not to be bipartisan. </p>
<h2>2. Pandemic preparedness</h2>
<p>Despite the severe <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/01/coronavirus-stimulus-update-senators-to-unveil-relief-bill.html">politicization of COVID-19</a>, bipartisanship is within reach on future global health challenges, our study shows. </p>
<p>Six out of seven foreign policy professionals anticipate a big push within the next two years to prepare for another global pandemic. Of those, 78% think it will attract support from both sides of the aisle. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/business/economy/republicans-democrats-coronavirus-survey.html">substantial gap</a> separates the two parties on the preferred balance between protecting public health and maintaining normal economic activity during the coronavirus pandemic. But the parties have worked together in the past to <a href="https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/fact-sheet/the-u-s-presidents-emergency-plan-for-aids-relief-pepfar/">reduce the global spread of HIV/AIDS</a> and to invest in the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-congress/u-s-house-passes-8-3-billion-bill-to-battle-coronavirus-senate-vote-due-thursday-idUSKBN20R2V6">development of coronavirus vaccines</a>. </p>
<h2>3. Cyberthreats</h2>
<p>Cooperation is feasible, too, to protect Americans’ digital information from overseas adversaries. </p>
<p>After numerous state-sponsored attacks on U.S. computer networks by countries including China, North Korea, Russia and Iran, Congress is close to approving bipartisan legislation to establish a White House <a href="https://www.scmagazine.com/home/security-news/government-and-defense/potential-national-cybersecurity-director-inches-towards-reality/">cybersecurity czar</a>. </p>
<p>By 2022, more than three-quarters of officials and experts predict Democrats and Republicans will have come together on other major steps to protect the United States against international cyberattacks. </p>
<h2>4. Trade</h2>
<p>Trade is another policy area Democrats and Republicans may rally around, according to our research. </p>
<p>It <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-biden-will-find-it-hard-to-undo-trumps-costly-america-first-trade-policy-149340">won’t be easy to undo Trump’s “America First” policy</a>, which imposed tariffs on key imports like steel and closed off foreign markets to American manufacturers. But 65% of those expecting a major effort by 2022 to expand international trade anticipate that it will be bipartisan. </p>
<p>There is precedent for such collaboration. Trump’s <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/10/3/17930092/usmca-mexico-nafta-trump-trade-deal-explained">United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement</a> was passed with bipartisan approval earlier this year.</p>
<h2>Going alone on climate</h2>
<p>Americans today are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/03/15/everything-you-need-to-know-about-our-polarized-politics-in-the-palm-of-your-hand/">more polarized</a> than at any time since the Civil War, and Congress is bitterly divided. </p>
<p>But history shows foreign policy can rise above the partisan fray. And dozens of Republican former national security officials <a href="https://www.defendingdemocracytogether.org/national-security/">endorsed Biden’s candidacy</a> because they were “profoundly concerned about the nation’s security and standing in the world under Donald Trump.”</p>
<p>Biden’s nominations of foreign policy officials who are highly regarded across the aisle, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-america-first-to-america-together-who-is-antony-blinken-bidens-pick-for-secretary-of-state-150739">Anthony Blinken for secretary of state</a>, lay the groundwork for bipartisan action. </p>
<p>Still, our survey identified one major issue where experts believe Biden will struggle to gain Republican support: the global climate crisis.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373623/original/file-20201208-14-dch6ec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Five young Native Americans in front of the US Capitol building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373623/original/file-20201208-14-dch6ec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373623/original/file-20201208-14-dch6ec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373623/original/file-20201208-14-dch6ec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373623/original/file-20201208-14-dch6ec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373623/original/file-20201208-14-dch6ec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373623/original/file-20201208-14-dch6ec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373623/original/file-20201208-14-dch6ec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Native American youths at the Global Climate Strike, Sept. 20, 2019, in Washington, D.C.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/native-american-youth-speak-in-front-of-the-u-s-capitol-news-photo/1169849446?adppopup=true">Samuel Corum/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Six of 10 Americans see climate change as a <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/16/u-s-concern-about-climate-change-is-rising-but-mainly-among-democrats/">critical threat</a>, and Biden signaled the importance of the issue by naming <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-biden-and-kerry-could-rebuild-americas-global-climate-leadership-150120">former Secretary of State John Kerry his climate envoy</a>, a new Cabinet-level position.</p>
<p>But Republicans are much <a href="https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/publication/lcc/first-time-majority-americans-say-climate-change-critical-threat">less concerned about climate change than other Americans</a>, research shows. Only a few GOP legislators acknowledge that even <a href="https://www.statesman.com/opinion/20190923/opinion-democrats-and-republicans-must-find-common-ground-on-climate-change">gradual steps must be taken</a>. The two parties are sharply split over such basic policies as whether to mandate <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/30/democrats-unveil-sweeping-plan-to-tackle-climate-change-345503">reductions in greenhouse gas emissions</a>. </p>
<p>[<em>Get our most insightful politics and election stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-most">Sign up for The Conversation’s Politics Weekly</a>.]</p>
<p>Only 18% of the foreign policy professionals in our survey who foresee a major climate initiative by 2022 think that it will be bipartisan.</p>
<p>To aggressively tackle the climate crisis, Biden will likely need to rely <a href="https://energy.utexas.edu/sites/default/files/Polit-Feasibility-Decarb-US-Electricity.pdf">largely on executive action</a> – <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/23122016/obama-climate-change-legacy-trump-policies">just as President Barack Obama did</a>.</p>
<p><em>Dina Smeltz, a senior fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, contributed to the researching and writing of this article</em>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150508/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jordan Tama receives funding from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the Raymond Frankel Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Busby receives funding from the Strauss Center for International Security and Law and the Clements Center for National Security at the University of Texas. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael J. Tierney receives funding from the Carnegie Corporation of New York.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Monten and Joshua D. Kertzer do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A survey of 800 foreign policy experts identified four international issues where Republicans and Democrats may actually cooperate to get something done – and one area of severe disagreement.Jordan Tama, Associate Professor of International Relations, American University School of International ServiceJonathan Monten, Lecturer in Political Science and Director of the International Public Policy Program, UCLJoshua Busby, Associate Professor, The University of Texas at AustinJoshua D. Kertzer, Paul Sack Associate Professor of Political Economy, Harvard Kennedy SchoolMichael J. Tierney, Director of William & Mary's Global Research Institute and George and Mary Hylton Professor of Government and International Relations, William & MaryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1504132020-11-20T19:26:19Z2020-11-20T19:26:19ZHow Biden might stimulate the sputtering US economy: 4 questions answered<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370453/original/file-20201119-18-1o73wl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=197%2C116%2C5793%2C3871&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The economy will be one of the president-elect's top priorities in January. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Biden/498a58bd9cbc495f950d2ab101db206c/photo?Query=biden%20AND%20economy&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=268&currentItemNo=4">AP Photo/Andrew Harnik</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: President-elect Joe Biden <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2020-11-13/joe-bidens-economic-plan-will-depend-on-path-of-the-coronavirus">has said fixing the economy</a> will be one of his administration’s top priorities when he takes office in January. R. Andrew Butters, assistant professor of business economics and public policy at Indiana University and a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, explains the challenges Biden will face and what kind of stimulus the U.S. will need.</em> </p>
<p><strong>1. What are the top economic challenges facing Biden?</strong></p>
<p>The pandemic and the subsequent impacts on the economy have been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/30/business/economy/q2-gdp-coronavirus-economy.html">nothing short of devastating</a>. But the primary challenge actually isn’t so much an economic one at all; it is a public health challenge. Until COVID-19 is under control, I think optimism about the health of the economy will remain fleeting.</p>
<p>The job losses and slowdown in economic activity experienced across the country <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/03/business/economy/coronavirus-permanent-job-losses.html">are likely to persist</a> for many months or even years. The effects have also been highly uneven across industries. Employment in some sectors, such as finance and insurance, <a href="https://www.uschamber.com/series/above-the-fold/latest-job-market-data-shows-the-uneven-impacts-of-k-shaped-recovery-us">has fully recovered</a>, while industries like leisure and hospitality are still struggling to get back on their feet. These uneven losses could also contribute to increases in <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/28/coronavirus-making-income-inequality-worse-this-is-what-leaders-can-do.html">income and social inequality</a>.</p>
<p>The severe impact can be seen in the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time – one of the <a href="https://voxeu.org/article/us-recovery-may-2009-new-evidence-based-surprisingly-robust-linkage">most timely economic indicators</a>. Until this year, the highest this figure had ever reached in a single week was just under 700,000 – a level previously associated with only the depths of a recession. The U.S. <a href="https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf">has broken that record every single week</a> since March 21, with a peak of <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA">over 6 million in late March</a> and early April. In the week of Nov. 14, another 1 million people filed for unemployment benefits, including those who received <a href="https://www.dol.gov/coronavirus/unemployment-insurance">special pandemic-related aid</a> intended to help people ineligible for the regular program. </p>
<p>Put simply, the Biden administration faces a troubled economy the <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO#0">likes of which haven’t been seen in U.S. history</a>. Moreover, traditional monetary and fiscal stimulus measures are <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fed-lays-out-new-goals-but-its-tools-could-be-lacking-11598796001?">either unavailable</a> or unlikely to be all that effective in boosting economic activity in all sectors.</p>
<p><strong>2. Biden has said he plans to push for a significant stimulus package. How can he ensure it’s effective?</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/jobs-and-unemployment-insurance">Most economists would agree</a> that stimulus that is effectively targeted and efficiently disbursed yields the most “bang for your buck.” It helps to focus aid on workers or industries most affected and make sure it’s tied to changing local conditions. </p>
<p>One likely focus for the Biden team will be income support, much like what we saw in parts of the <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/cares">Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act</a>, which offered generous unemployment benefits – the <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/unemployment-benefits-12-million-lose-after-christmas/">last of which will expire in December</a>. But not all aid is created equal, and economists favor stimulus with <a href="https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/25658990/Social_Research_80.3.pdf?isAllowed=y&sequence=3">large multiplier effects</a> – that is, how much economic activity is generated for every dollar of spending.</p>
<p>For example, if I have <a href="https://www.irs.gov/coronavirus/economic-impact-payments">US$1,200 in extra income</a> from the government, I might go out and spend some of that on a nice meal with my family at a local restaurant. The restaurant then uses that money to pay its employees and buy more supplies from other businesses, both of which then spend the money on other things they need. The more everyone spends from that initial dollar, the higher the multiplier. If a lot of people like me use that extra money for savings or to pay off credit card debt, the multiplier goes down, making the stimulus less impactful. </p>
<p>But while providing more income support will help those most hurt by the pandemic, it won’t necessarily bring jobs back. Stimulus packages that attempt to invest in certain sectors of the economy to generate demand for labor and create jobs could go further in providing a longer-term impact on the economy.</p>
<p>So I wouldn’t be surprised if the administration also provides stimulus that aims to bolster hiring, such as by spending billions of dollars on infrastructure. The <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2017/02/22/eight-years-later-what-the-recovery-act-taught-us/">2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act</a> that Biden worked on included this type of infrastructure spending.</p>
<p>Stimulus spending should also not overlook <a href="https://www.epi.org/blog/state-and-local-governments-still-desperately-need-federal-fiscal-aid-to-prevent-harmful-austerity-measures/">state and local governments</a>, which are in desperate need of support to avoid severe cuts in services, such as transportation, education and health, which would seriously hamper any economic recovery.</p>
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<p><strong>3. Once Biden is sworn in, how soon are those hurt by the pandemic likely to feel some relief?</strong></p>
<p>I would expect that the Biden administration will try to put together some sort of relief package quickly once in office. </p>
<p>Most of the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-aid-bill-talks-to-resume-on-capitol-hill-11596552848?">failure by members of Congress</a> – and the White House – to reach an agreement on another stimulus package has been due to the uncertainty associated with the November election. Now that the election is over – apart from two races <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/13/georgia-senate-election-results.html">that will decide which party controls the Senate</a> – I suspect that the administration and Congress will try to put a fiscal package together quickly once Biden takes office.</p>
<p><strong>4. How much of this recovery is within Biden’s control, and how much will be dependent on the pandemic?</strong></p>
<p>Just as the arrival of the pandemic and collapse of the economy were mostly outside the control of President Donald Trump, it would be fair to say there is a limit to the amount of direct control Biden will have on the recovery. Ultimately it will be guided by the progression of the pandemic, as we have <a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/11/07/how-economically-damaging-will-new-lockdowns-be">seen in other countries</a>. </p>
<p>That being said, public health policies that speed up the development and distribution of an effective vaccine are <a href="http://www.doi.org/10.1126/science.abc5792">likely to make a big difference</a> not only in ending the pandemic but in reviving the economy as well. The amount of stimulus Biden and Congress provide, and how well it is targeted, will likely determine how quickly the economy recovers.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150413/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>R. Andrew Butters is also a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The views expressed here are my own and do not reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago or the Federal Reserve System.</span></em></p>The Biden administration plans to push for a bold stimulus package to bolster the ailing American economy. An economist explains what he’s up against.R. Andrew Butters, Assistant Professor of Business Economics, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.