Imprecision in election polling has long been recognized. But advance polls are still useful in recognizing trends in voter preferences, and candidates’ weak points.
Academic rigor, journalistic flair
Articles on election polling
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The US president’s ratings may be poor, but historical data and and analysis suggests, he could still win the election.
The unusual candidacy of former President Donald Trump has made election polling especially appealing, more than a year from the election. But consumers beware: Those polls may be wrong.
Will some polls misfire in prominent races in the 2022 midterms? Probably. Will such errors be eye-catching? In some cases, perhaps. Will the news media continue to tout polls? Undoubtedly.
Having most Australian adults gather at polling booths seems like a COVID disaster waiting to happen. What measures are in place and how can you limit your risk?
People know a lot about their friends and neighbors – and pollsters can learn from that information, if they ask.
An expert on the history of polling has a first take on how pollsters did this year.
Top contributors
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Professor Emeritus of Communication, American University School of Communication
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Associate Professor, Epidemiology, Deakin University
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Professor of Public Policy, Psychology and Behavioral Science, USC Sol Price School of Public Policy, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences
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Professor of Human Social Dynamics, Santa Fe Institute; External Faculty, Complexity Science Hub Vienna; Associate Researcher, Harding Center for Risk Literacy, University of Potsdam
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Paul Whiteley is a Friend of The Conversation.
Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
