tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/electoral-reform-1327/articlesElectoral reform – The Conversation2024-01-29T17:34:59Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2216992024-01-29T17:34:59Z2024-01-29T17:34:59ZWhat Canada can learn from Ireland on citizen engagement to bolster democracy<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/what-canada-can-learn-from-ireland-on-citizen-engagement-to-bolster-democracy" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Canadian democracy is under pressure. Recent challenges have ranged from Ottawa’s so-called <a href="https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/idUSRTS593FA/">Freedom Convoy</a> protests in 2022, which resulted in the federal government invoking the Emergencies Act (unjustifiably, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/emergencies-act-federal-court-1.7091891">according to a recent court ruling</a>), to Ontario’s enactment of legislation reducing the size of Toronto City Council during <a href="https://www.canlii.org/en/ca/scc/doc/2021/2021scc34/2021scc34.html">the 2018 municipal election</a>. </p>
<p>Perhaps most worrying, however, is the <a href="https://www.policymagazine.ca/canadas-growing-problem-with-trust-in-government/">consistent trend</a> that shows citizens are increasingly disillusioned with their democratic institutions. </p>
<p>This is a moment that calls out for democratic renewal. In the search for inspiration for methods of re-engaging citizens, Canada might look to Ireland. </p>
<h2>Irish inspiration</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07907184.2018.1534832">Ireland has become a trailblazer</a> internationally for integrating citizens’ assemblies into its democratic process. Citizens’ assemblies are a form of what are known as “<a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1sr6gw9">deliberative mini-publics</a>,” representative samples of ordinary citizens who deliberate together and make proposals for reform. </p>
<p>Modern examples of deliberative mini-publics stem from <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/08/us/politics/robert-a-dahl-dies-at-98-defined-politics-and-power.html">American political scientist Robert Dahl’s</a> idea of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199547944.003.0002">what he called “minipopulus”</a> in which a random cohort of citizens is tasked with deliberating on an issue with the assistance of experts. Ideally, it then produces a reasoned judgment on the best policies to pursue. </p>
<p>The judgments of the minipopulus, Dahl argued, would represent the views of the wider community if it was given the opportunity to access the best knowledge available and engage in a deliberative process. In other words, the legitimacy of the minipopulus’s views would derive from the legitimacy of democracy itself.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-deliberative-democracy-research-in-nepal-shows-it-could-spur-global-youth-voting-189204">What's 'deliberative' democracy? Research in Nepal shows it could spur global youth voting</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>One of the world’s first citizens’ assemblies took place in Canada in 2004, in the form of the <a href="https://participedia.net/case/1">British Columbia Citizens’ Assembly</a> which deliberated on electoral reform. It set the model for the subsequent <a href="https://participedia.net/case/46">Ontario Citizens’ Assembly</a> on the same subject in 2007. </p>
<p>In each case, the assembly’s recommendations were put to referendum, but in neither case did the referendum pass. The momentum around citizens’ assemblies in Canada has since faded.</p>
<h2>Irish abortion laws</h2>
<p>The Irish experience has been different. Citizens’ assemblies in Ireland began in 2012 in response to public distrust of elite institutions following <a href="https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/great-recession/">the 2008 recession.</a> </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.constitutionalconvention.ie">Constitutional Convention</a> — an assembly including both elected representatives and ordinary citizens — was mandated to make recommendations on a range of matters, from marriage equality to the voting age. </p>
<p>In 2016, the Irish government established the first <a href="https://citizensassembly.ie/overview-previous-assemblies/2016-2018-citizens-assembly/">citizens’ assembly</a> composed entirely of randomly selected citizens. Its first topic was Ireland’s constitutional position on abortion. </p>
<p>Abortion was an explosive issue in Ireland since the controversial insertion of a 1983 amendment to the country’s constitution that effectively banned abortion in most circumstances. Public demand for a referendum on the issue had been building, and the government’s decision to establish a citizens’ assembly was criticized by some as a stalling tactic.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, the assembly <a href="https://citizensassembly.ie/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/FirstReport_EIGHTAMENDMENT.pdf">ultimately recommended</a> a radical liberalization of the law to allow for abortion without restriction for the first time in Irish history. </p>
<p>Following the resounding referendum result in favour of this proposal, lawmakers enacted a new legislative framework, based around the model recommended by the assembly — an extraordinary example of tangible mini-public impact on a landmark legal reform.</p>
<h2>Not a silver bullet</h2>
<p>Of course, not all citizen processes are so impactful. Indeed, the Irish Citizens’ Assembly has produced recommendations on other topics that have not achieved the same — or any — uptake. </p>
<p>But since 2016, citizens’ assemblies have started to become part of the architecture of constitutional and policy change in Ireland. Since 2020, assemblies have taken place on <a href="https://citizensassembly.ie/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/report-of-the-citizens-assembly-on-gender-equality.pdf">gender equality</a>, <a href="https://citizensassembly.ie/wp-content/uploads/ReportonBiodiversityLoss.pdf">biodiversity</a>, <a href="https://citizensassembly.ie/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/report_dublincitizensassembly_final_lowres.pdf">models of local government</a> and <a href="https://citizensassembly.ie/assembly-on-drugs-use/recommendations/">drug use</a>. It remains to be seen how or if the recommendations will eventually result in constitutional or legislative changes.</p>
<p>Citizens’ assemblies are not a silver bullet — their impact depends on the appetite of politicians to implement their recommendations and many other factors. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-an-eu-citizens-assembly-could-help-to-renew-european-democracy-98894">How an EU citizens' assembly could help to renew European democracy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>There is, however, a strong case for revisiting citizens’ assemblies in Canada, not least the significant contemporary challenges facing Canadian democracy. The perceived failings of prior Canadian experiments with citizens’ assemblies are no reason to abandon these efforts. </p>
<p>The disappointing outcomes of the referendums that followed those processes were not attributable to a failure of citizens to deliberate and agree on reform; the reasons for failure were many, both legal and political. </p>
<p>By all accounts, the participants in those assemblies showed <a href="https://cpsa-acsp.ca/papers-2008/Leduc.pdf">enthusiasm and energy</a> at becoming engaged in shaping their country’s values.</p>
<h2>Canadian opportunities</h2>
<p>A raft of areas of law in Canada are now in need of reform. The federal government has <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-safety-canada/news/2023/02/government-of-canada-appoints-president-and-commissioners-to-the-law-commission-of-canada.html">outlined a range of priorities</a> for the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/law-commission-canada.html">Law Commission of Canada</a>, including racism in the law, reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples, access to justice, climate change and technological changes. </p>
<p>The Irish experience has shown that citizens are capable not only of deliberating on broad constitutional issues, but technical legislative matters too. </p>
<p>What’s more, citizens’ assemblies can serve a particularly important role when elected representatives have a vested interest. That includes on topics like electoral reform because it may be unrealistic to expect politicians to substantially reform a system that resulted in their election in the first place. Citizens have no such conflicts.</p>
<p>Canada has so far avoided the more extreme attacks on democracy witnessed by its <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/01/04/us/january-6-capitol-trump-investigation.html">nearest neighbour</a>, the United States. In the face of declining public participation, however, there is no room for complacency. A fresh approach to citizen engagement is an exciting prospect, worthy of serious consideration.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221699/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Seána Glennon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As Canada’s nearest neighbour grapples with serious attacks on democracy, a fresh approach to citizen engagement in Canada is an exciting prospect, worthy of serious consideration.Seána Glennon, Doctoral Fellow, Constitutional Law, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2163652023-10-25T08:52:34Z2023-10-25T08:52:34ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Don Farrell’s high noon for European free trade deal, and hopes for lobster exports to China<p>Last weekend Australia had a big win when China agreed to review over the next five months its prohibitive tariffs on Australian wine, This weekend Trade Minister Don Farrell hopes to finally land a long-awaited free trade deal with the European Union, for which negotiations have been going on for years. </p>
<p>Farrell tells the Conversation’s podcast that if agreement can’t be reached, Australia will need to walk away because the Europeans will be entering election season. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>At the end of the day, my job is to make a decision on the national interest. And if on balance, the things that are good about the European trade agreement outweigh the things that are bad – because there’s always bad things in agreements – then I feel I’ve got an obligation to the Australian people to say yes, we’ll sign this agreement.</p>
<p>If we haven’t got a deal, the Europeans move into their electoral cycle for elections next year. And I think we will have lost the opportunity for two, perhaps three years to come back and resolve this.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Next week Farrell will leave with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for China. That country now has removed or, in the case of wine, is moving to remove all the trade restrictions it imposed on Australia – with the exception of those on lobsters and a handful of meat exporters. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>There is light at the end of the tunnel. I think Australian [wine] producers should start thinking about getting their product back into China as quickly as they can after that date, at a zero tariff. The [Chinese] minister himself has confirmed to me just how much he likes Australian wine. The Chinese have got a very strong palate for Australian wine and I’m confident that once we get that tariff removed, we’ll get Australian wine back onto Chinese supermarkets and into restaurants.</p>
<p>We have found alternative markets for our lobster, but not at the price that the Chinese were buying, so it’s a significant issue. And there’s one or two abattoirs in Australia who during COVID volunteered to suspend their exports because they had COVID in their abattoirs. They have not yet been given permits to go back in. But again, that’s just a process issue and I think with a bit more push on our part, we’ll get both the lobster and the meat back in to China.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-special-minister-of-state-don-farrell-wants-donation-and-spending-caps-for-next-election-208107">Politics with Michelle Grattan: Special Minister of State Don Farrell wants donation and spending caps for next election</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In the podcast Farrell, who is also Special Minister of State, canvasses his progress on electoral donations and spending caps. Independents have expresed some reservations about the government’s intentions, exchanging views with him at a recent meeting. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I don’t agree with [the independents’] assessment of what the impact of caps will do to the election result. In fact, in many ways I think they themselves will be beneficiaries of such a system.</p>
<p>I’ll keep talking with them. I’ve given them an assurance that, as with the other political parties, I’ll talk with them. I hope they will see that caps are necessary to stop really wealthy Australians buying election results.</p>
<p>The reality is we’ve seen over the last two federal elections really, really rich Australians seeking to buy election results. And I don’t think that adds to democracy in this country. I think that takes away from democracy.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>Senator The Hon Don Farrell
Special Minister of State</p>
<p>Transcription: PROOF COPY E & OE
Date: Thu, 2023-10-26 12:00
Topic(s): Trade with China, AU-EU Free Trade Agreement, electoral reform.
Michelle Grattan, host: Next week, Anthony Albanese heads to China, the first Australian Prime Minister to go there since 2016. This follows the gradual unfreezing of the China-Australian relationship over the past year and a half, with the removal of most restrictions that China imposed on Australian commodities. The latest breakthrough is on wine, with China undertaking to review the prohibitive tariffs over the next five months.</p>
<p>Trade Minister Don Farrell has been at the centre of the negotiations, and he will accompany the Prime Minister to China. But first, he will be in Japan this weekend for the G7 Trade Ministers meeting. While there, he’ll have talks with European counterparts on the vexed issue of the proposed Free Trade Agreement between Australia and the European Union. This is likely to be the High Noon meeting for this agreement. Either it will be landed, or Australia will walk away.</p>
<p>Don Farrell joins us today to talk about trade and in his other role as Special Minister of State, electoral reform. Don Farrell, while in Japan you’ll be meeting with your European Union counterparts in the hope that you can ink a Free Trade Agreement. You’ve said you won’t be signing anything unless it’s in Australia’s interests. What are the prospects for success, do you think?</p>
<p>Minister for Trade, Don Farrell: Michelle, I’m going to meet the Europeans with an open mind and optimistic disposition. I was forced to walk away from Brussels earlier in the year when I believed that the Europeans didn’t make us a good enough offer. I’m hoping that the time lapse between then and now gives them the opportunity to make us a better offer, and on that basis if it’s good enough, I’ll be recommending to the Australian people that we should accept it.</p>
<p>Michelle Grattan: Now one reason why a deal hasn’t been struck earlier is that the Europeans have a desire to protect product names with geographical connotations. This would restrict Australian producers from using names like “feta” and “parmesan”. Where is that up to, and what other sticking points have there been?</p>
<p>Minister for Trade: Look, they have been difficult issues to work with, but I think that if we could resolve the rest of the package, then I think we can resolve all of those outstanding issues. I think they’re capable of being resolved with a little bit of goodwill, and I’m hoping that if we can get a full package, that we’ll have a successful outcome with those names.</p>
<p>Michelle Grattan: So, is the name issue still a really difficult thing to get resolved?</p>
<p>Minister for Trade: The name issue has not yet been resolved. I think it is capable of being resolved, but there’s a lot of balls in the air at the moment, and all of them have to land in the right spots for us to be satisfied that we’ve got an acceptable deal.</p>
<p>Michelle Grattan: What other things are still outstanding? You only have a few days.</p>
<p>Minister for Trade: Yeah. Well, it’s funny, I think the Europeans talk about this as the end game, and I think they sort of somehow think that everything suddenly sort of collapses and we resolve all of the issues, and I’m hopeful that that’s the way it ends. As I said, I do want a successful outcome. But our access to their agricultural markets is an important one.</p>
<p>Michelle Grattan: Well, that’s always been difficult.</p>
<p>Minister for Trade: Yeah, it’s always been difficult. They have a very protectionist system. In fact, one of their arguments to me is that we were so successful in our UK Trade Agreement that lots of their market into the United Kingdom has been taken up by Australian beef and sheep meat and sugar. So, we need a better offer from them on sheep meat, on beef and on sugar.</p>
<p>Again, I’m hopeful that if they understand, you know, where we’re coming from ‑ and I’m trying to make it as clear as I can ‑ that if the offer is the same as the one I got in Brussels earlier in the year, I’m going to reject it again. So, it has to be a better offer. At what point do you accept or reject? Well, that’s the really hard bit, and of course, you know, I’ll have the National Farmers’ Federation up in Japan, I’ll have the meat and livestock, and so forth, all of those people will be up there, they’ve all got an interest in it, and I’ll want to consult them.</p>
<p>But at the end of the day, my job is to make a decision on the national interest, and if on balance the things that are good about the European Trade Agreement outweigh the things that are bad, because there’s always bad things in agreements, then I feel I’ve got an obligation to the Australian people to say, “Yes, we’ll sign this agreement.”</p>
<p>Michelle Grattan: But this is the High Noon weekend, is it? If you can’t get a deal, that’s it.</p>
<p>Minister for Trade: Look, I think for a range of reasons, not least the fact that from this point onwards, if we haven’t got a deal, the Europeans move into their electoral cycle for elections next year, and I think we will have lost the opportunity for two, perhaps three years to come back and resolve this.</p>
<p>Michelle Grattan: Now let’s turn to the China trip, and the wine deal in particular. In 2019, we exported more than a billion dollars’ worth of wine to China. Now in 2022, we’re down to 16 million, so a huge, huge fall. What kind of impact has this had on producers, they seem to have had more trouble getting alternative markets than producers for some other commodities that have been hit, and I should add that you were a wine producer, and I think you still live on your old vineyard, is that right?</p>
<p>Minister for Trade: I do, yes. Beautiful part of the world, Clare Valley. Yes. So, look, roughly 170,000 people work in the wine industry in Australia. It’s a big employer, and it’s a particularly big employer in South Australia; 50 per cent of all Australian wine comes from South Australia, 80 per cent of premium wine comes from South Australia, and of course one of the reasons our sales were so high was we were selling a lot of premium wine into China. I’ve seen firsthand how my neighbours in the Clare Valley this year left many of their red grapes on the vines, they didn’t take them off, because their vats are already full with wine from previous years that they haven’t been able to sell.</p>
<p>We’ve been working really hard on this issue. The Chinese knew how important it was to us, and as you’ve correctly said, unlike other products, we found it very difficult to find alternative markets, into say India or the United Kingdom. So, this was an important breakthrough last weekend. I’m going up to China with the Prime Minister next week. I always felt that by that time we would have had an indication from the Chinese that they were prepared to move on this topic. We followed identically the barley dispute, so we’re to suspend our World Trade Organisation dispute in return for a fast-tracked review of the tariffs.</p>
<p>I’m confident that based on all of the previous announcements of freeing up products back into China, that we’re going to get there on wine. It will take five months, I’ve no doubt about that, but there is light at the end of the tunnel. I think Australian producers should start thinking about getting their product back into China as quickly as they can after that date at a zero tariff. The Minister, himself, has confirmed to me just how much he likes Australian wine. The Chinese have got a very strong palate for Australian wine, and I’m confident that once we get that tariff removed, we’ll get Australian wine back onto Chinese supermarkets and into restaurants.</p>
<p>Michelle Grattan: Now the Chinese restrictions on Australian commodities were at one stage $20 billion worth. It’s now down, I think, to about 2 billion. Does that include the wine?</p>
<p>Minister for Trade: That includes the wine, but if you exclude the wine, then we’re down to $1 billion.</p>
<p>Michelle Grattan: So, what’s left?</p>
<p>Minister for Trade: So, what’s left is some lobster, of all things, you might think, but we haven’t been able to get our lobster back in. We have found alternative markets ‑‑</p>
<p>Michelle Grattan: Put a few on the plane when you go perhaps.</p>
<p>Minister for Trade: Well, let’s hope so, Michelle. But we have found alternative markets for our lobster, but not at the price that the Chinese were buying, so it’s a significant issue, and there’s one or two abattoirs in Australia who ‑ or during Covid volunteered to suspend their exports because they had Covid in their abattoirs. They have not yet been given permits to go back in. But again, that’s just a process issue, and I think with a bit more push on our part, we’ll get both the lobster and the meat back into China.</p>
<p>Michelle Grattan: So, it’s nearly all done.</p>
<p>Minister for Trade: Yeah. Well, look, it’s been a difficult task, Michelle. It almost seemed insurmountable when we started this process, to get $20 billion worth of trade ‑ I mean, you think about that $20 billion, it’s twice our total sales to the United Kingdom. I mean it was a large amount of money. So, no, we’ve worked hard, the Prime Minister in particular has taken great interest in the progress here, as has the Foreign Minister, as has the Agriculture Minister. It’s been a Team Australia approach.</p>
<p>Michelle Grattan: So, can you give us some insights into these negotiations that you’ve had with the Chinese officialdom and political system? What’s been the flavour of them?</p>
<p>Minister for Trade: Look, I ask myself, how would I like to be treated? And so, I try and treat the Chinese officials, particularly, Wang Wentao, who’s my equivalent, the way I would like to be treated myself. As I said, he’s a big supporter of, personally a big supporter of Australian wine. Tonight, I’m going to visit the Chinese Embassy, and I’ll be taking a bottle of my wine with me, just to make sure that he understands just how good the Australian product is. But it’s a case of respect. China is our largest trading partner by a long way.</p>
<p>Last year, two-way trade between Australia and China was at a record level, $299 billion. If we’d had the wine back in last year, we would have actually hit the $300 billion mark. So, this is an important market for us. We have to treat them, I think, with respect. We never are going to agree on a range of political issues; we’re a democracy, you know, they’re an autocracy, but in a sense, we need one another. They need our products, they need our high-quality food and beverage, and we need to be able to continue to sell there.</p>
<p>Michelle Grattan: So, in these negotiations, not just on wine, but on other things, have you mixed the informal contacts a bit with the formal across‑the‑desk stuff?</p>
<p>Minister for Trade: Yeah. And so, one of the reasons I’m going to the trade meeting next week in Shanghai is, well, it’s the Minister’s own turf, he’s from Shanghai, former Mayor of Shanghai, and you’ve actually, just like ordinary relations, you’ve got to, you know, build a relationship with your counterparts, and going to his hometown, I had originally hoped I was going to stay at The Peace Hotel on The Bund, the Charlie Chaplin room, which he managed to restore when he was the Mayor of Shanghai, that wasn’t possible for a range of reasons.</p>
<p>But I’ll be meeting with him. We’ll renew our friendship. We’ve now met, either by Zoom or personally, three times, this will be number four. He has agreed to come to South Australia to visit the vineyards in South Australia. All of those things I think help build a relationship of trust, and hopefully, we don’t get back to the situation we found ourselves, where suddenly overnight Australian businesses are losing trading opportunities into China.</p>
<p>Michelle Grattan: Now I want to change to a very, very different topic. In your role as Special Minister of State, you joined the conversation to discuss your objectives for electoral reform earlier in the year. Can you give us an update where that’s all up to?</p>
<p>Minister for Trade: Yeah. So, what happens after every election is that the Special Minister of State refers the election outcome to the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters. I did that very promptly. Since the election they’ve been looking at aspects of the last election, and in particular from my point of view, how we can improve transparency and accountability at the next election. I have a view that there’s a couple of ways we can do that. One is by reducing the disclosure amount of money before you have to disclose donations. Currently, it’s about $16,000, we want to get that down to about $1,000. But more importantly, the concept of real-time disclosure. So that if you’re in an election period and you’re contemplating voting for a particular candidate, you ought to know where that candidate’s getting their donations from.</p>
<p>And look, the reality is, we’ve seen over the last two Federal Elections, really, really rich Australians seeking to buy election results, and I don’t think that adds to democracy in this country, I think that takes away from democracy. So, we’re looking at things like caps, spending caps, expenditure caps. But the undertaking I’ve given to all of the parties, I’ve given it sort of privately, and I’ve given it publicly, I’ve given it in the Parliament, is that I want to talk to all of the various parties because I think electoral reform in this country works best where you’ve got a consensus position.</p>
<p>So, my aim is to keep walking through the JSCEM process, it will be completed by the end of the year, and hopefully, I can sit down with the political parties, the other political parties, and the independents. I’ve already met, I had eight or nine of the independents in my boardroom the other day. But I’m hopeful that with a bit of goodwill, that we can get a consensus on how we move forward with Australian electoral outcomes.</p>
<p>Michelle Grattan: They’re worried, the Independents, that you’ll do a deal with the Libs and the Nationals, and that will disadvantage new players or small players like them.</p>
<p>Minister for Trade: Look, I don’t agree with their assessment of what the impact of caps will do to the election result, in fact in many ways, I think they themselves will be beneficiaries of such a system, and what I don’t think that the Teals quite comprehend is that the reason they were so successful at the last election is that they had Scott Morrison as the Prime Minister, they had integrity issues to run on, and of course, they had climate change issues to run on. None of them will be in existence at the next election.</p>
<p>But look, I’ll keep talking with them. I’ve given them an assurance that, as with the other political parties, I’ll talk with them. I hope they will see that caps are necessary to stop really wealthy Australians buying election results. I just don’t think we can have another Federal Election where that’s a potential outcome.</p>
<p>Michelle Grattan: We’re talking here about Clive Palmer.</p>
<p>Minister for Trade: Yeah, we’re talking about Clive Palmer.</p>
<p>Michelle Grattan: But he didn’t get much, he only got one Senator.</p>
<p>Minister for Trade: No, but he affected the election outcome. I don’t think there’s any doubt at all that the reason Bill Shorten didn’t win the 2019 election was the more than hundred million dollars that Clive Palmer spent on that election.</p>
<p>These people are not necessarily after political influence in the sense of having people in Parliament. What they’re after is the result, and getting a favourable result, and I just don’t think Australians want a situation where one individual can spend so much money to get a successful electoral result.</p>
<p>Michelle Grattan: What’s your timetable for bringing in this legislation, and will it include truth in advertising?</p>
<p>Minister for Trade: Yeah, truth in advertising is a difficult one. I think most people would agree that getting accurate information about electoral issues is an important part of our democratic process. Just how you do that is a more difficult proposition. South Australia has done that, this got debated a couple of nights ago in the Estimates process. Senator Birmingham piped up that he didn’t like the way the South Australian system worked and thought it actually worked against free speech, but ‑‑</p>
<p>Michelle Grattan: You think it’s okay?</p>
<p>Minister for Trade: Look, I think it’s one option to think about. I don’t say it’s the perfect option. Some of the Teals have got some of their own ideas on this. And, of course, the other issue is who would you get to determine the truth or otherwise. The AEC have said, look, they would not be happy to do it, they’re job is to run the election, not to monitor, you know, arguments during the course of the election.</p>
<p>I had quite an unusual item pop up about me personally during the Referendum. I woke up one morning to discover that the allegation was that I had usurped the role of the Governor‑General in signing the writ to issue the Referendum. Now that was a completely preposterous proposition. But it was floating out there in the social media. And once it gets out there, Michelle, it’s very hard to, you know, to counteract. They had a photograph of my signature on the writ document, and of course, my signature was there, because I witnessed the Governor‑General signing the document.</p>
<p>So, I personally know what it’s like to have these sort of allegations made against you, but it’s a tough one. We should do something about it. It’s a question of making sure that if we do do something about it, we don’t truncate free speech in this country. I mean that’s one of the great advantages of our system. People do have the right for free speech. I don’t want to truncate that, but if it’s possible to come up with a mechanism to ensure that people are getting accurate information, or have the ability to get accurate information, then I think that would be a good outcome.</p>
<p>Michelle Grattan: So, you’ll try and get it in the legislation.</p>
<p>Minister for Trade: I’ll try and have some discussions with the other party, and other parties, and if there’s a way through this, then I’m happy to look at it.</p>
<p>Michelle Grattan: So, when would you be bringing in this legislation?</p>
<p>Minister for Trade: Okay. So, the process is nearing an end, we’ve only got, what, five or six more weeks before the end of the year. I would hope that we can make some progress before the end of the year, if not very early in the new year.</p>
<p>Michelle Grattan: So, a bill in either late this year or early next on at least the donation and spending side.</p>
<p>Minister for Trade: Yeah, yeah. The important thing here is making sure that the Australian Electoral Commission has adequate time to make changes to their system to reflect any changes in the legislation. Real-time disclosure of donations is actually quite a big task, it rolls off the tongue pretty easily, but in fact, to be able to do that, a whole lot of new processes are going to have to be set up. I want to make sure the AEC has got plenty of time to do that, to trial it, and to make sure that it works for the next election.</p>
<p>Michelle Grattan: And so that would take probably a year or so?</p>
<p>Minister for Trade: It could take as much as a year, yeah.</p>
<p>Michelle Grattan: Don Farrell, thank you very much for talking with us today on trade and the electoral system. Good luck for your trip to China, well, and to Japan indeed. That’s all for today’s Conversation Politics Podcast. Thank you to my producer, Mikey Burnett. We’ll be back with another interview soon, but goodbye for now.</p>
<p>Media Contact(s)
[ENDS]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216365/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In this podcast, the Minister for Trade and Special Minister of State Don Farrell joins The Conversation to canvass Australia's prospective trade agreement with the EU, relations with China, and electoral reformMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2098512023-07-18T03:01:09Z2023-07-18T03:01:09ZTougher donation limits and funding fixes would make future NZ elections fairer for all<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537653/original/file-20230717-137932-ttindx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=97%2C73%2C8054%2C6037&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Less than three months out from New Zealand’s 2023 election, large political donations have been making headlines. Donations to both <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/131600565/act-declares-almost-1-million-in-one-day-from-big-money-donors">the ACT Party</a> and <a href="https://thespinoff.co.nz/live-updates/08-05-2023/national-amasses-5m-war-chest-in-a-single-year">the National Party</a> have significantly outpaced large-scale contributions to other political groups.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1655419411828981760"}"></div></p>
<p>Should this be a cause for concern? Studies from overseas indicate those who raise the most money tend to win. And, based on our recent <a href="https://www.doughnation.nz/">“Doughnation” research</a>, donors know that too. Wealthy New Zealanders admitted to gaining access to the levers of power through political donations.</p>
<p>So do our current campaign finance rules do enough to protect a basic principle of democracy – that we should all be equal in the ballot box?</p>
<p>Not according to an <a href="https://electoralreview.govt.nz/assets/PDF/IER-Interim-Report.pdf">interim report from the Independent Electoral Review</a>, which warns New Zealand’s current electoral laws are still “not as fair as they could be”.</p>
<p>Its final report will be delivered to the government in November – too late to have an impact on the 2023 election. </p>
<p>But if we want future elections to be fairer, here’s what the report found needs to change.</p>
<h2>How can we make future elections fairer?</h2>
<p>The Independent Electoral Review’s interim recommendations include </p>
<ul>
<li><p>replacing the current broadcasting allocation with a “fairer and more effective form of state funding” for registered parties</p></li>
<li><p>per-vote and base funding for registered political parties</p></li>
<li><p>tax credits for donations up to NZ$1,000</p></li>
<li><p>introducing an expanded Election Access Fund and a new fund to facilitate engagement with Māori communities.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Those changes are additional to several changes to political party finance implemented at the beginning of 2023, ahead of this year’s election. </p>
<h2>What changed ahead of this election?</h2>
<p>Changes included lowering the reporting threshold for large donations from $30,000 to $20,000 and new requirements around reporting donations above $1,500.</p>
<p>In the first six months of 2023, the main political parties have already received more than $4 million in donations over $20,000. </p>
<p>The National Party benefited the most from political donations, receiving $1,255,587 in large political donations, closely followed by ACT, which received $1,255,000. New Zealand First received $567,304, the Green Party received $496,260 and the Labour Party received $428,844. </p>
<p>These figures reflect the large donations that have to be disclosed within 10 days of receipt. We won’t know the sum total of small donations until well after the election. </p>
<h2>How much do large donations sway elections?</h2>
<p><a href="https://ojs.victoria.ac.nz/pq/article/view/6818/5966">Research</a> suggests donations can help political parties win more votes, but that typically this only applies to the more established parties. And, while money matters in New Zealand, it’s not necessarily a straightforward relationship. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/09/01/fundraising-remains-predictive-of-success-in-congressional-elections">Recent data from the United States</a> showed better-than-average fundraising is a strong predictor of better-than-average electoral success, concluding that “money still matters”.</p>
<p>Australia’s <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/how-big-money-influenced-the-2019-federal-election/">Grattan Institute</a> found that over the past five federal elections there, the party with the biggest war chest tended to form government. And <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S004727272100195X">an analysis</a> of general elections in France and the United Kingdom between 1993 and 2017 showed increased spending per voter improved candidates’ share of votes.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/theyre-nice-to-me-im-nice-to-them-new-research-sheds-light-on-what-motivates-political-party-donors-in-new-zealand-185574">'They're nice to me, I'm nice to them': new research sheds light on what motivates political party donors in New Zealand</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>New Zealand’s 2017 election also illustrated a strong relationship between money and votes. National received 44.45% of the votes after a $4,579,086 fundraising haul. Labour received 36.9% of the votes and received $1,611,073 in political donations.</p>
<p>But the 2020 election result suggests there are limitations to the relationship between funding and votes, particularly for the two main parties. In 2020, other factors clearly contributed to the electoral outcome. For example, Labour’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic appears to have outweighed National’s fundraising advantage.</p>
<h2>Some voters’ voices are louder than others</h2>
<p>Even if political donations don’t always decide elections, it is fairly well established that money buys access. Work from <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/whos-in-the-room/">the Grattan Institute</a> shows that highly regulated industries – such as mining, transport, energy and property construction – provided the highest level of donations to Australian political parties, made the greatest number of commercial lobbying contacts, and had the most meetings with senior ministers.</p>
<p>Access is not the same as influence, of course. It is typically difficult to make a causal connection between donations and influence, except when political scandals occur. </p>
<p>However, research out of the US by <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3521574">Martin Gilens</a> showed that politicians’ decisions do not represent the preferences of poorer or middle-class citizens. Rather, these decisions fall in line with the interests of the wealthiest – a situation that Gilens attributed at least in part to the influence of wealthy donors.</p>
<p>In New Zealand, the Independent Electoral Review’s interim report acknowledged the </p>
<blockquote>
<p>risks to public confidence in the electoral system if some people have more access to, or can unduly influence, parties and candidates through political financing. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>In a recent opinion piece, <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/opinion-national-and-act-donors-arent-after-tax-cuts-heres-why-they-really-give/HE2VWBTSHBGKLEMSUVIOR7VIYU/">former ACT board member Robin Grieve</a> defended political donors as not always being motivated by self-interest, giving an example of a donor wanting to help children in the care of Oranga Tamariki.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/over-300-000-new-zealanders-owe-more-than-they-own-is-this-a-problem-173497">Over 300,000 New Zealanders owe more than they own – is this a problem?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>While there may have been altruistic intent, the issue is still that the donation was made by a wealthy person to a political party with the stated objective of influencing legislation.</p>
<p>Is that fair? In <a href="https://www.doughnation.nz/">our research</a> exploring the motivations of wealthy donors, some agreed that it was unfair that they could donate while others could not, with one noting a </p>
<blockquote>
<p>real problem with people who accumulate a lot of money supporting the systems that have allowed them to accumulate a lot of money. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Another commented that they did not think</p>
<blockquote>
<p>that it is right that rich people can distort democracy.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Not everyone was concerned about this situation, with one donor telling us</p>
<blockquote>
<p>the fact that some can promote their position more than others doesn’t worry me.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1554000375795130369"}"></div></p>
<p>If acted on, the Independent Electoral Review’s recommendations for tighter donations controls and fairer funding for registered parties would help create significantly more transparency in New Zealand’s political donations system. </p>
<p>We believe a move away from a reliance on large individual donors would help increase public trust in the way political parties are funded. It also is likely to help level the playing field of access and potential influence in New Zealand politics.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209851/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lisa Marriott receives funding from the Gama Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Max Rashbrooke has received funding from the Gama Foundation.</span></em></p>Big donors are already pouring millions into New Zealand’s 2023 election. But new proposals could make it harder for large donations to translate into political influence in future.Lisa Marriott, Professor of Taxation, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonMax Rashbrooke, Research Associate, Institute for Governance and Policy Studies, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2081072023-06-20T08:33:02Z2023-06-20T08:33:02ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Special Minister of State Don Farrell wants donation and spending caps for next election<p>The next federal election could be conducted under dramatically reformed electoral laws, with caps on spending and donations, and a much lower disclosure threshold for the disclosure of donations. </p>
<p>The changes, being worked up by Special Minister Don Farrell, would also trim the wings of third parties, such as Simon Holmes à Court’s Climate 200. </p>
<p>Farrell tells The Conversation’s Politics Podcast he is not waiting for the final report of the parliamentary Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, which in its interim report has recommended a set of reforms broadly in line with Labor policy. The report was tabled on Monday.</p>
<p>Farrell says waiting until the final report comes at the end of the year would make it harder to get legislation in place for the next election, due by May 2025. He will have negotiations over the coming months and wants as much bipartisanship as possible, despite the Coalition opposing key recommendations of the majority report.</p>
<p>The government’s reform package would drastically reduce the threshold for donation disclosure, from the current $15,200 to $1000, and provide for disclosure in “real time”. </p>
<p>On spending caps, Farrell says: “The Australian electoral system shouldn’t be just open to people with lots of money”, citing Clive Palmer’s huge spend of $117 million at the last election. </p>
<p>He’s hoping for “broad consensus” across parties “that we’ve got to do something to firstly restrict the amount of money that individuals can spend, but also ensure that combination of transparency, so that ordinary people can run campaigns”.</p>
<p>“The expenditure by wealthy people to essentially buy election results is now completely out of control and we’ve got to do something about it.”</p>
<p>Farrell says caps should apply to third parties because “it’s got to be a level playing field”. There has to be as “balance” – increasing transparency, restricting the ability of rich people to buy elections, and improving access to democracy. </p>
<p>“My job in the next six months before the final report [from the committee] will be to try and find that balance.”</p>
<p>Ambitiously, Farrell says: “I’d like to see a consensus outcome before the end of the year, and that implemented either this year or early next year so that the Australian Electoral Commission has got plenty of time to implement whatever we agree upon.” </p>
<p>He said a provision for truth in advertising, also recommended by the committee, would be in the government’s package “if we can get consensus on it in the lead up to the next election”. </p>
<p>Farrell hopes the date for the Voice referendum – which Anthony Albanese has said will be in the last quarter of the year – is sooner rather than later, because of the weather in the north in the latter months of the year. The speculation is that the vote will be in October. </p>
<p>“Look, it’s a challenge in every election getting into Indigenous communities and of course the later in the year that you go, then the more difficult it can be with storms and so forth [in the north of Australia] and of course that’s where large numbers of Indigenous Australians live.” </p>
<p>“I’m pleased to report that since this government came to office, we’ve lifted Indigenous enrolment from roughly 81% that it was at the time of the last election up to 84½%, and we’re expecting to get some more figures next month, which I’m confident will show an even greater participation. (At the next federal election more than 98% of the eligible general population will be on the roll.) </p>
<p>Farrell has made it easier for Indigenous people to enrol by allowing a Medicare card to be used as identification. "It’s a challenge but I think we have to devote more resources to getting more Indigenous Australians on the roll and I think you’ll find more Indigenous Australians will vote on this issue in the referendum.”</p>
<p>This week Farrell warned that the government’s legislation for its $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund, deferred by the Greens and the Coalition until mid October, could be on the way to qualify as double dissolution legislation. </p>
<p>He tells the podcast: “Look, I’m not advocating a double dissolution. What I am advocating is for the Greens political party to come to their senses.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208107/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In this podcast, Michelle and Minister of State Don Farrell discuss the governments sweeping changes to electoral laws, countering misinformation and what now for the Housing Australia Future FundMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2071092023-06-06T18:45:06Z2023-06-06T18:45:06ZExtending the term of parliament isn’t a terrible idea – it’s just one NZ has rejected twice already<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530265/original/file-20230606-19-cso4oh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C8%2C5982%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Among a host of other recommendations, the <a href="https://electoralreview.govt.nz/">Independent Electoral Review</a> has proposed a referendum on extending the term of parliament to four years (from the current three). I’ll admit from the outset to being torn over the issue – the policy wonk in me says four, the election junkie says three.</p>
<p>But there’s another problem. Even if it is a sound idea, why hold a referendum when two past referendums have already rejected the proposal? Parliament could make the change alone, but MPs would likely face a backlash from the people wanting a referendum.</p>
<p>Those previous polls in 1967 and 1990 were both defeated by more than two-thirds majorities. Without a strong sense of a public desire for change, it’s hard to see a third result being any different. </p>
<p>In fact, one can almost hear the social media arguments against it already: “We have more important things to think about”, “They just want to keep their noses in the trough for longer”. Given current levels of distrust in politics, getting this across the line feels like a stretch.</p>
<p>But we’re still at the initial review stage. Public consultation is open until July 17, and a final report goes to the government in November, after the election. Public opinion could still shift in the meantime.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1665875159490908160"}"></div></p>
<h2>Time to govern</h2>
<p>There are some good practical reasons for extending the parliamentary term. For starters, by the time a new government is sworn in after an election, it’s often nearly Christmas and the nation shuts down and heads to the beach. </p>
<p>Ideally, a new government should get cracking with making policy and legislation in its first and second years. But in the third, anticipation of the next election changes the priorities and the focus.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lowering-new-zealands-voting-age-to-16-would-be-good-for-young-people-and-good-for-democracy-145008">Lowering New Zealand's voting age to 16 would be good for young people – and good for democracy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>To get a new law from a first cabinet paper to an act of parliament can take a couple of years – longer if there’s a lot of argument. So we’re not allowing much time for governments to really get things done. </p>
<p>When we account for the downtime before and after elections, they’re left with roughly two years of action out of every three. That slack could be reduced from roughly one-third to one-quarter if we moved to a four-year term.</p>
<p>On the other hand, many New Zealanders like having their say and holding their representatives to account through the ballot box. That’s not an argument for even shorter terms, but it is certainly a persuasive argument for the status quo.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530267/original/file-20230606-23-5q54gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530267/original/file-20230606-23-5q54gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530267/original/file-20230606-23-5q54gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530267/original/file-20230606-23-5q54gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530267/original/file-20230606-23-5q54gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530267/original/file-20230606-23-5q54gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530267/original/file-20230606-23-5q54gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">ACT’s David Seymour: reform ‘doesn’t solve a single urgent problem that New Zealanders face’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Winners and losers</h2>
<p>So, if not through a referendum, how would we change the length of the parliamentary term? It is possible if parliament were to pass an amendment to the Electoral Act. That requires a 75% majority. </p>
<p>Given Labour’s Jacinda Ardern and National’s Judith Collins <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/427374/political-leaders-favour-four-year-parliamentary-term-but-many-voters-not-so-keen">both supported the idea</a> before the 2020 election, that super-majority may well exist. That’s bolstered by the fact the <a href="https://www.act.org.nz/democracy">ACT Party also supports</a> a four-year term. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/theyre-nice-to-me-im-nice-to-them-new-research-sheds-light-on-what-motivates-political-party-donors-in-new-zealand-185574">'They're nice to me, I'm nice to them': new research sheds light on what motivates political party donors in New Zealand</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>And yet ACT leader David Seymour was <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/06/act-s-david-seymour-slams-electoral-recommendations-as-waste-of-everyone-s-time.html">quick to rubbish</a> the whole electoral review report. Before most people had even had a chance to read it, he’d declared it a “waste of everyone’s time” and “a major left-wing beat-up that doesn’t solve a single urgent problem that New Zealanders face”.</p>
<p>One explanation for such a negative reaction may lie in one of the report’s other recommendations, which is to eliminate the “coat-tailing” rule. This allows a party that wins at least one electorate seat to bring more MPs into the house, proportional to their party vote even if it’s below the 5% threshold. </p>
<p>The rule has undeniably created inequities. But ACT itself has benefited from it, notably in 2008, when it received just 3.65% of the party vote but took five seats on the back of winning the Epsom electorate.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lobbying-regulations-are-vital-to-any-well-functioning-democracy-its-time-nz-got-some-203404">Lobbying regulations are vital to any well functioning democracy – it's time NZ got some</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Self-interest and stalemate</h2>
<p>It’s perhaps inevitable that partisan political self-interest will emerge whenever these electoral reform proposals are made. Those who stand directly to win or lose become the loudest voices in the subsequent debate. The issue itself is politicised before the average voter has even taken in the details.</p>
<p>And, let’s remember, extending the parliamentary term is only one of more than 100 draft recommendations, including lowering the party vote threshold from 5% to 3.5%, and lowering the age of eligibility to vote from 18 to 16. The review process can mean difficult technical, legal and constitutional debates and proposals become bogged down in politics as usual.</p>
<p>Much like the <a href="https://elections.nz/assets/2012-report-of-the-Electoral-Commission-on-the-review-of-mmp.pdf">2012 Electoral Commission review</a>, from which no substantive recommendation for change was ever adopted (the present review repeats some of them), the unintended consequence may be another round of talk, but little action. If there’s a change of government after October’s election, this review is unlikely to go anywhere, other than into the archives. That would be a shame. </p>
<p>New Zealand’s electoral and parliamentary systems aren’t perfect, but no such system is. It may be asking a bit much at present, but some consensus about making them work more democratically and effectively would still be a good thing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207109/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grant Duncan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A referendum on changing New Zealand’s parliamentary term to four years would be the third such exercise in under 60 years. Why would the outcome be any different this time?Grant Duncan, Associate Professor, School of People, Environment and Planning, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2048202023-05-30T14:18:10Z2023-05-30T14:18:10ZSouth Africa has changed its electoral law, but a much more serious overhaul is needed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527987/original/file-20230524-7504-ouwx5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hundreds of people stand in line to vote in South Africa's first democratic election in April 1994.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brooks Kraft LLC/Sygma via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South African president Cyril Ramaphosa recently <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/president-cyril-ramaphosa-signs-law-electoral-amendment-bill-2022-20-apr-2023-0000">signed into law</a> a change to the country’s electoral act to allow individuals to contest national and provincial elections independently of political parties. The change follows a <a href="https://theconversation.com/constitutional-court-ruling-heralds-changes-to-south-africas-electoral-system-140668">June 2020 constitutional court judgment</a> that the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201409/act73of1998.pdf">Electoral Act</a> was unconstitutional because it didn’t allow independent candidates.</p>
<p>But in my view the change corrects one wrong by creating another, especially concerning the <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/content/Elections/Election-types/">principle of proportionality</a>. </p>
<p>For instance, it does not matter how many votes independent candidates get. Once they have reached the electoral threshold to secure a seat in the legislature, any extra votes would not count. For political parties, extra votes count towards securing another seat. (A trend that has emerged over the years has been that a party needs at least 40,000 to 45,000 votes to secure a seat in the national assembly.) </p>
<p>Thus various civil society formations have <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2023-04-19-strike-down-the-electoral-amendment-act-it-has-been-a-mess-from-the-beginning/">headed to court</a> to challenge the inherent injustice in the changed law. The existing electoral system is, by design since 1994, inherently biased towards a party system. </p>
<p>Based on <a href="https://www.africaportal.org/publications/journal-of-african-elections-special-issue-south-africas-2014-elections/">my work</a> on electoral democracy in South Africa, and <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/institutionalising_Democracy.html?id=c7ZRCwAAQBAJ">on the Electoral Commission of South Africa</a> (chapter 4), I think the legislated changes and much of the discussion about independent candidates miss the point. What’s needed is to completely overhaul the electoral system, lest it continues to churn out minute parties, resulting in intractable coalition politics. This is already in <a href="https://theconversation.com/multiparty-democracy-is-in-trouble-in-south-Africa-collapsing-coalitions-are-a-sure-sign-192966">evidence</a> through governance impasses in the country’s metropolises. </p>
<p>The constitutional court’s decision shows that electoral democracy is possible without parties. </p>
<p>The challenge is to design an electoral system that makes this possible. The court cannot prescribe this. It is a function that belongs to parliament. </p>
<h2>Barking up the wrong tree</h2>
<p>In much of the debate about electoral reform, the way local government representatives are elected is touted as a solution. But it is no better. Despite having an element of a constituency approach, which many supporters of electoral reforms want for provincial and national polls, is also driven by a party system. </p>
<p>That it is not also up for reform creates lopsidedness. This must be corrected, or South Africa could make the same mistake it made during the <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/convention-democratic-south-africa-codesa">negotiations to end apartheid</a> in the early 1990s. The transition from the apartheid-era local government system was handled separately from the national and provincial spheres. This is why the country has different systems of government at the local, provincial and national levels. And often this spawns <a href="https://theconversation.com/tumultuous-times-for-south-africa-as-it-enters-the-era-of-coalition-politics-64312">incoherence in the country’s system of governance</a>.</p>
<p>The fundamental problem is the country’s <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26798966">proportional representation system</a>. It is the reason coalition politics have <a href="https://theconversation.com/multiparty-democracy-is-in-trouble-in-south-africa-collapsing-coalitions-are-a-sure-sign-192966">become messy</a>.</p>
<p>Local government has been unstable since after the <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/content/Elections/Downloadable-results/Detailed-results-data--2016-Municipal-Elections/">August 2016</a> local government elections saw the governing ANC lose major cities, heralding the era of coalition governments across the country. The unstable coalitions have had dire consequences for governance and service delivery. The fear is that this will be <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-votes-in-2024-could-a-coalition-between-major-parties-anc-and-eff-run-the-country-204141">repeated after the 2024 national elections</a>. </p>
<p>Because of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-african-voters-are-disillusioned-but-they-havent-found-an-alternative-to-the-anc-171239">loss of electoral support</a> over the years for the governing <a href="https://www.anc1912.org.za/">African National Congress</a>, the poll is expected to result in the first national coalition government since democracy in 1994. This could also happen <a href="https://www.theafricareport.com/234405/south-Africa-shock-poll-shows-anc-heading-towards-2024-coalition">in the provinces</a>. </p>
<h2>The proportional representation system</h2>
<p>In a proportional representation system, the allocation of seats in the legislatures for all three spheres of government is based on the electoral performance of parties. A winning party needs more than 50% of the votes to constitute a government. </p>
<p>Local government uses a ward system along with proportional representation. The total number of seats is halved, to be filled based on the electoral performance of the parties and candidates who get the most votes in their community. </p>
<p>Compared to proportional representation, a ward system is a <a href="https://jopa.wemasoft.co.za/public/portal/articles/published-article/id/1339">constituency electoral approach</a>, based on the <a href="https://dullahomarinstitute.org.za/multilevel-govt/local-government-bulletin/archives/volume-2-issue-2-june-2000/vol-2-no-2-2000-municipal-elections-where-pr-and-ward-representation-meet.pdf/view">first-past-the-post principle</a>. A candidate with the highest votes in a ward gets a seat in the municipal council as the community’s duly elected representative.</p>
<p>Many hail the mixed local government system as balancing party-list proportional representation with a constituency approach. They say it has <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/opinions/analysis/analysis-anton-van-dalsen-we-wont-see-any-reform-with-proposed-amendments-to-electoral-bill-20220916">lessons for the national and provincial spheres of government</a>. But this is <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/opinions/analysis/analysis-anton-van-dalsen-we-wont-see-any-reform-with-proposed-amendments-to-electoral-bill-20220916">only partially accurate</a>.</p>
<p>A ward system also allows candidates to contest elections as representatives of parties. This oddity does not end here. A vote for a ward candidate who represents a party adds to proportional voting of their party in allocating seats in the council. A ward system reinforces the party system. Its constituency disposition is a farce.</p>
<h2>Why proportional representation</h2>
<p>South Africa’s proportional representation came from noble intentions during the multiparty negotiation in the 1990s to end apartheid. It evolved as part of the political concessions to facilitate the transition “<a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9780230522749_25">from racial authoritarianism to multiparty democracy</a>” (p. 440-450).
This included enabling even the smallest parties a presence in parliament. </p>
<p>It has long outlived its contextual relevance. Its negative extremes abound in local government. The proliferation of smaller parties muddies the operating system of the multiparty democracy.</p>
<p>This has thrown governance into turmoil, as shown in the metropolises with their <a href="https://theconversation.com/turmoil-in-south-africas-capital-points-to-the-need-to-overhaul-local-democracy-139565">internecine coalition politics</a>. It is coming apart at the seams, to the <a href="https://jopa.wemasoft.co.za/public/portal/articles/published-article/id/1339">detriment of service delivery</a>.<br>
South Africa’s democracy is at a tipping point, and state capacity has been weakening. </p>
<h2>What needs to be done?</h2>
<p>Government has the responsibility to design a better electoral system. The objective should be to return power from political elites to the people. The existing system has spawned contestation among parties about sharing the spoils of state power rather than using this for the public good. </p>
<p>Different electoral systems exist across the globe. There is no perfect system for South Africa to choose. Each electoral system is a function of its political context, and when this changes, it also ought to change. </p>
<p>The distribution of seats for independent candidates must be thrashed out to ensure equity relative to political parties. When their electoral performance gives them more than a seat, they should be allowed to co-opt like-minded people to occupy them. </p>
<p>The possibility for ward councillors to contest elections as representatives of parties should be disallowed. They should only stand as direct community representatives. An overarching requirement for all who want to contest elections should be allegiance to the public interest, not party or personal interests.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204820/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mashupye Herbert Maserumule received funding from National Research Foundation(NRF). He is affiliated with the South African Association of Public Administration and Management(SAAPAM). </span></em></p>The proportional representation system has long outlived its relevance. Its negative extremes abound in local government.Mashupye Herbert Maserumule, Professor of Public Affairs, Tshwane University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1997612023-02-16T14:37:22Z2023-02-16T14:37:22ZHow to poll 93 million voters – the challenge of pulling off Nigeria’s presidential elections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510325/original/file-20230215-29-2l84q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Voters display their permanent voters card during the 2019 Presidential and National Assembly elections in Lagos. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adekunle Ajayi/NurPhoto via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nigeria’s registered voters, which the <a href="https://www.inecnigeria.org/">Independent National Electoral Commission</a> has put at <a href="https://www.thecable.ng/preliminary-number-of-registered-voters-in-nigeria-now-93-5m-says-inec">93.5 million</a>, are expected to come out in their numbers in what will be Africa’s biggest election this year.</p>
<p>They will be electing the president and members of the National Assembly on 25 February and governors and members of the State Houses of Assembly on 11 March.</p>
<p>To vote in the elections, Nigerian citizens must be at least 18 years old and must have collected their permanent voter’s card by 5 February. The electoral commission has not yet released the number of people who have collected their cards. The number of collected cards will determine how many people that can be expected to vote.</p>
<p>The logistical challenges for the 2023 elections are huge, given the fact that 18 political parties are contesting, the security environment and the number of contestants at various levels. There are 18 presidential candidates, 1,101 candidates for the Senate and 3,122 candidates vying for federal constituencies in the House of Representatives. The elections will be conducted across 176,606 polling stations.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511942/original/file-20230223-330-uixwc4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511942/original/file-20230223-330-uixwc4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511942/original/file-20230223-330-uixwc4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511942/original/file-20230223-330-uixwc4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511942/original/file-20230223-330-uixwc4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511942/original/file-20230223-330-uixwc4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511942/original/file-20230223-330-uixwc4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nigeria election infographic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Infographic: The Conversation Africa / Data: INEC Nigeria – Independent National Electoral Commission</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But the presidential election, a three-horse race, could end in a runoff. Candidates of the ruling <a href="https://apc.com.ng/">All Progressives Congress</a>, <a href="https://peoplesdemocraticparty.com.ng/">People’s Democratic Party</a> and the <a href="https://labourparty.com.ng/">Labour Party</a> command a large national following, as shown by several <a href="https://www.stears.co/premium/article/stears-poll-predicts-nigerias-next-president/">pre-election polls</a>. </p>
<p>And the cost is huge. Nigeria spends about <a href="https://www.eisa.org/pdf/JAE11.1Aregbeyen.pdf">2% of its GDP</a> on elections. </p>
<p>Logistics, security challenges and malpractice in past elections have led to a focus on the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/350467727_Aiyede_Matters_Arising_from_the_2019_Elections_and_Electoral_Reform_Processes">reform of election administration</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.yiaga.org/sites/default/files/portfolio/Signed-Version-of-the-Electoral-Act-2022-compressed.pdf">Electoral Act 2022</a> has given legal backing for any voter accreditation technology that the electoral commission uses. If any technical device used in the election fails to function and isn’t replaced, the election will be cancelled for that voting station and another scheduled within 24 hours. The law also allows the commission to transmit election results electronically. These steps greatly reduce the ability to rig results, compared with manual methods.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerian-elections-eight-issues-young-people-want-the-new-government-to-address-199034">Nigerian elections: Eight issues young people want the new government to address</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The logistics</h2>
<p>A total of 1,265,227 officials have been trained and will be deployed for the elections. They include presiding, collation and returning officers, as well as 530,538 polling unit security officials.</p>
<p>The Independent National Electoral Commission will issue 1,642,386 identification tags for the polling and collation officers, and provide 176,846 <a href="https://dubawa.org/what-you-need-to-know-about-bimodal-voter-accreditation-system/">Bimodal Voter Accreditation System</a> (BVAS) devices and 17,618 BVAS machines for back-up. These devices verify the identity of voters by checking fingerprints and facial features electronically.</p>
<p>In December 2022, the electoral commission signed a memorandum of understanding with transport unions that will help deploy over one million personnel and large quantities of election materials to 774 local government areas, 8,809 electoral wards and 176,846 polling units across the country.</p>
<p>Over 100,000 vehicles and about 4,200 boats, accompanied by naval gunboats, will be used.</p>
<p>These have to be deployed under the current state of <a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-next-president-faces-a-collapsing-security-situation-five-things-he-can-do-188179">insecurity</a> as well as a scarcity of fuel. </p>
<iframe title="Nigeria Election 2023" aria-label="Map" id="datawrapper-chart-fzk8t" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/fzk8t/5/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="800" data-external="1" width="100%"></iframe>
<h2>Challenges of 2023 polls</h2>
<p>The success of the 2023 general election will largely depend on the degree to which citizens can vote without impediments. But there are challenges. </p>
<p><strong>Voter apathy:</strong> Nigeria has a history of voter apathy, where a significant number of registered voters fail to show up on election day. For the 2019 general elections, the country had <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2019/01/07/84-million-nigerians-registered-to-vote-in-2019-polls-inec//">84 million registered voters</a>. Voter turnout in the presidential election was only <a href="https://punchng.com/2019-presidential-polls-only-35-of-voters-voted-inec/">35.66%</a>. In 2015 it was <a href="https://inecnigeria.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Conference-Paper-by-Sakah-Saidu-Mahmud.pdf">43.65%</a>. These figures put Nigeria among the 10 countries with the <a href="https://www.icirnigeria.org/2019-election-nigeria-has-the-lowest-voter-turnout-in-africa/">lowest voter turnout</a> in the world. Rwanda recorded <a href="https://www.state.gov/report/custom/4572fd52ca/">98.15%</a> voter turnout in 2017, the highest in the world. </p>
<p><strong>Naira redesign and scarcity of fuel:</strong> The electoral environment has been bedevilled by <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/576987-why-fuel-scarcity-persists-across-nigeria-marketers.html">scarcity of fuel</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-currency-redesign-and-withdrawal-limits-questionable-policy-and-bad-timing-197813">naira notes</a>. The shortages have led to public <a href="https://dailypost.ng/2023/02/14/cash-crunch-protesters-shut-down-lagos-abeokuta-expressway/">demonstrations</a> and heightened tension which might deter some voters from coming out on election day.</p>
<p><strong>Insecurity:</strong> Fifty-two electoral commission offices were <a href="https://leadership.ng/arson-inec-records-50-attacks-in-4-years/">destroyed or burnt</a> between 2019 and 2022. Secessionist movements and militants from the southern regions and religious extremists and bandits in the north have <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-violence-in-nigerias-south-east-is-threatening-to-derail-voting-in-the-region-198610">besieged</a> electoral facilities. This may discourage prospective voters.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/africas-largest-democracy-goes-to-the-polls-amid-rising-insecurity-193960">Africa’s largest democracy goes to the polls amid rising insecurity</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The voting process</h2>
<p>There are four steps in the voting procedure to be followed on election day: accreditation, voting, sorting and counting, recording and announcement of results. </p>
<p><strong>Accreditation:</strong> Voters, armed with their permanent voter’s card, must be present at the polling unit where they are registered between 8.30 am and 2.30 pm. They need to queue up in an orderly manner for accreditation. Voters will present their card to the assistant polling officer, who will use the BVAS device to check that voters match their cards. Where the fingerprint fails to confirm the match, the BVAS will be used to verify the facial identity of the voter.</p>
<p><strong>Voting:</strong> After accreditation, voters will be given the ballot paper. They will go to the voting booth to make their choice on the ballot paper in secret by thumb printing. Then they put the ballot paper in the ballot box in full view of everyone present, without disclosing how they voted. Voting will be declared closed when the last voter in the queue has voted. Voters may remain at the polling unit to watch the vote.</p>
<p><strong>Sorting and counting:</strong> The ballots will be sorted and counted in full view of everyone at the polling unit. </p>
<p><strong>Recording and annoucement:</strong> The results will be filled into the result sheet and announced by the electoral commission officer at the polling unit. The results from the polling units will be taken to the various levels of collation. The sum of the results will be recorded and at the final level, the candidate who meets the criteria will be announced the winner. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-2023-presidential-election-10-factors-that-could-affect-the-outcome-195247">Nigeria's 2023 presidential election: 10 factors that could affect the outcome</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Conclusion</h2>
<p>To vote validly, the voter must be aware of the process of voting beyond being registered to vote and collecting the permanent voter’s card. </p>
<p>Invalid ballots during the vote count will widely be attributed to inadequate civic and voter education. Thus, voter education is central to increasing voter turnout and reducing incidents of invalid votes. </p>
<p>For these reasons, the Independent National Electoral Commission made a <a href="https://www.inecnigeria.org/downloads-all/inec-strategic-plan-2017-2021/">plan</a> for voter education. It has a voter education manual and <a href="https://inecnigeria.org/voter-education/faqs/">frequently asked questions</a>. Observer <a href="https://www.wfd.org/where-we-work/nigeria">organisations</a> have also tried to help <a href="https://yiaga.org/election101">prepare</a> voters.</p>
<p>For a peaceful, free, fair and credible election, citizens must stay up to date, including knowing the location of their polling place before election day, and contribute to keeping the peace.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199761/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emmanuel Remi Aiyede does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Logistical challenges facing the 2023 elections remain huge given the number of political parties, the security environment and the number of contestants at various levels.Emmanuel Remi Aiyede, Professor of Political Institutions, Governance and Public Policy, University of IbadanLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1987982023-02-02T06:48:39Z2023-02-02T06:48:39ZThe body choosing Kenya’s election commission is being overhauled – how this could strengthen democracy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507316/original/file-20230131-4114-8kr9t0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">William Ruto (right) takes over from Uhuru Kenyatta as Kenya's president in 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tony Karumba/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Kenya has new rules for choosing the people who run its elections.</p>
<p>President William Ruto has signed into law the <a href="http://www.parliament.go.ke/index.php/iebc-amendment-bill-2022-assented-law">Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (Amendment) Bill</a>. It changes the composition of the panel that selects people to serve on the country’s Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.iebc.or.ke/iebc/?mandate">commission</a> is a state institution that has the task of enhancing and supporting constitutional democracy in Kenya. It conducts elections, registers citizens as voters and maintains the voters’ roll. It also fixes the boundaries of electoral constituencies and wards. It settles electoral disputes, registers candidates for election and conducts voter education.</p>
<p>But since it was established in 2011, the commission has been at the centre of Kenya’s history of post-election violence. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/counties/article/2000203367/the-truth-lies-and-dangers-as-debate-on-iebc-rages-on">2013</a>, <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20171018-kenya-election-chief-doubt-free-fair-poll-kenyatta-odinga-demonstrations">2017</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/rigging-allegations-begin-kenyan-media-slow-tally-votes-tight-presidential-race-2022-08-12/">2022</a>, the losing political parties accused it of failing to administer elections fairly and lawfully. </p>
<p>In 2017, the Kenyan supreme court accused the commission of “<a href="https://www.zawya.com/en/economy/africa/kenyans-usher-in-year-of-political-reforms-i46ulluz">bungling</a>” the presidential election. In the 2022 elections, the then vice-chairperson of the commission, Juliana Cherera, <a href="https://www.pd.co.ke/august-9/4-iebc-commissioners-disown-presidential-results-144903/">disowned the results</a> of the presidential poll before the official announcement. </p>
<p><a href="https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/-raila-calls-for-constitutional-changes-and-iebc-reforms--4001430">Raila Odinga</a>, who lost that poll, called for reforms that would make the electoral commission a much fairer referee of the country’s elections. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/raila-odinga-should-be-thanked-his-election-losses-helped-deepen-kenyas-democracy-190044">Raila Odinga should be thanked - his election losses helped deepen Kenya's democracy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The new law seeks to <a href="http://www.parliament.go.ke/sites/default/files/2022-11/Independent%20Electoral%20and%20Boundaries%20Commission%20%28Amendment%29%20Bill%2C%202022.pdf">streamline the process</a> of appointing members to the electoral commission, making the selection process more participatory and reflective of the country’s diversity.</p>
<p>And it comes at a critical moment. Seven commissioner positions are currently vacant.</p>
<p>A weak electoral agency poses four major threats to Kenya’s democracy: it will fail to deliver fair, free and credible elections; it will disrupt improvements in the country’s transition to democracy; it will prolong the culture of post-election violence; and it will divide the nation’s diverse ethnocultural groups.</p>
<p>It is, therefore, vital that the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission be a strong and fully functioning organisation staffed by Kenyans who are dedicated to democratic governance. </p>
<h2>What’s changing under the new law</h2>
<p>Selecting electoral commissioners is a complex job. </p>
<p>The new law brings more independent commissioners and associations into the selection process. Previously, only three agencies nominated the seven commissioners: the <a href="http://www.parliament.go.ke/psc/the-commission">Parliamentary Service Commission</a>, the <a href="https://interreligiouscouncil.or.ke/history/">Inter-Religious Council of Kenya</a> and the <a href="https://twitter.com/lawsocietykenya?lang=en">Law Society of Kenya</a>. Now there are five. The newcomers are the <a href="https://orpp.or.ke/index.php/services/political-parties-liaison-committees-pplc">Political Parties Liaison Committee</a> and the <a href="https://www.publicservice.go.ke/index.php/about-us/mandate">Public Service Commission</a>. They open the door for political parties and the public service to participate in this critical process.</p>
<p>It’s important that the selection panel includes state and non-state organisations that promote election integrity. Only individuals who are citizens of Kenya and meet the integrity requirements in <a href="http://www.kenyalaw.org:8181/exist/kenyalex/actview.xql?actid=Const2010#KE/CON/Const2010/chap_6">Chapter 6</a> of the constitution can serve on the selection panel. These individuals must hold a degree from a university recognised in Kenya.</p>
<h2>The vacancies</h2>
<p>Three of the current vacancies in the commission were expected: these commissioners’ terms had expired. But four other commissioners quit under a cloud of suspicion. </p>
<p>Cherera, Justus Nyang'aya and Francis Wanderi resigned after being <a href="https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/realtime/2022-12-06-cherera-four-should-be-probed-even-after-resigning-mp-kiarie/">suspended for their conduct</a> during the 2022 election. They had alleged that commission chairperson Wafula Chebukati had <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/national/article/2001462824/cherera-nyangaya-wanderi-and-masit-to-be-investigated-individually-muchelule-says">altered poll results</a> in favour of Ruto. Another commissioner, Irene Masit, was also suspended. She now has <a href="https://www.citizen.digital/news/irene-masit-breaks-silence-after-skipping-hearings-by-tribunal-probing-cherera-4-n311525">charges pending</a> against her before a tribunal investigating the matter.</p>
<h2>Why elections matter</h2>
<p>Elections are <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2020/10/30/threats-to-democracy-in-africa-the-rise-of-the-constitutional-coup/">a cornerstone of any democracy</a>. They help a nation build and sustain democratic and development-enhancing institutions. </p>
<p>They are a check on government. Elections put the power in ordinary people’s hands to change their government and choose more effective leaders for public service. They also give historically marginalised groups a voice.</p>
<p>To perform these functions, elections must meet certain minimum standards. They must be regular, fair, free, competitive, inclusive, transparent and credible. They must be conducted in strict conformity with the constitution. </p>
<p>That’s why a strong, independent and functioning electoral agency is so vital. </p>
<h2>Risks of dysfunction</h2>
<p>In Kenya, a weak and dysfunctional electoral commission would have dire consequences.</p>
<p>First, the failure to conduct elections that are considered by the majority of Kenyans as free, fair and credible could lead to the type of violence that the country experienced after the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2013/3/3/kenya-what-went-wrong-in-2007">2007 presidential election</a>. More than 1,000 people died. </p>
<p>Second, a weak commission can derail improvements in Kenya’s electoral system. A strong commission sets codes of conduct for candidates and political parties. This helps guard against various forms of political opportunism, including corruption. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fears-of-election-rigging-may-fuel-further-abuses-in-kenya-democracy-could-be-the-loser-176113">Fears of election rigging may fuel further abuses in Kenya: democracy could be the loser</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Third, a dysfunctional electoral commission can be manipulated by politicians and their supporters to monopolise political spaces. This situation has played out in <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/a-13-2007-07-23-voa7-66781532/565192.html">Cameroon</a>, where the ruling party has marginalised the opposition to remain in power since 1990. Similarly, in <a href="https://www.rfi.fr/en/africa/20200224-togo-incumbent-re-elected-fourth-term-opposition-alleges-fraud">Togo</a>, President Faure Gnassingbé has monopolised political spaces since 2005. </p>
<p>Fourth, in Kenya, the electoral commission is responsible for creating electoral boundaries. Any weakness in the commission can be exploited to create boundaries that benefit certain politicians and their supporters. This would undermine democracy and create distrust in the country’s democratic institutions.</p>
<p>The new law <a href="https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/senators-split-on-proposal-to-change-law-on-iebc-selection-4090866">doesn’t meet the expectations</a> of all of Kenya’s political constituencies – some individuals and groups believe that their voice in the selection panel has been diluted. However, it’s important for all Kenyans to recognise these reforms as an effort in the right direction – towards a stronger and more inclusive commission.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198798/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Mukum Mbaku does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Kenya’s electoral agency is tasked with enhancing and supporting constitutional democracy – any dysfunctions would have dire consequences.John Mukum Mbaku, Professor, Weber State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1936872022-11-07T19:13:51Z2022-11-07T19:13:51ZPower to the people: How Canada can build a more connected and responsive Parliament<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492999/original/file-20221102-12-jtdye0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3600%2C2177&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Low voter turnout in recent Canadian elections sharply illustrates how the public is disconnected from political institutions and their representatives. How can they be re-engaged?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Canadian citizens, like those in many other democratic countries, struggle with a <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/b407f99c-en/1/3/2/index.html?itemId=/content/publication/b407f99c-en&_csp_=c12e05718c887e57d9519eb8c987718b&itemIGO=oecd&itemContentType=book#figure-d1e2356">lack of trust</a> in their federal and provincial legislatures, their major political parties and members of Parliament. </p>
<p>One of the primary reasons is because the public is disconnected from political institutions and their representatives.</p>
<p>While our parliamentary system does offer opportunities for the public to provide some input via <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/government/system/consultations/consultingcanadians.html">public consultations</a>, many of those initiatives are limited by the fact that citizens cannot set the agenda, deliberate on issues they believe are important or make binding policy decisions. </p>
<p>One proposed solution to this problem has been to empower the public through <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/339306da-en/1/3/2/index.html?itemId=/content/publication/339306da-en&_csp_=07698b7c924c319dbb92a6500bf563da&itemIGO=oecd&itemContentType=book">institutionalized representative deliberative processes</a> — especially regularly scheduled and revamped town halls. There are also calls for the creation of a permanent structure for citizen deliberation, like the <a href="https://oidp.net/en/practice.php?id=1237">Ostbelgien Model</a> that consists of randomly selected and demographically representative “<a href="https://www.newdemocracy.com.au/docs/researchnotes/2017_May/nDF_RN_20170508_FormsOfMiniPublics.pdf">mini-publics</a>.”</p>
<p>Canadians have pioneered the respected <a href="https://nationalcitizensassembly.ca/">National Citizens’ Assemblies on Electoral Reform</a> and <a href="https://www.commissioncanada.ca/">Democratic Expression</a>, funded in part by the federal government. They also do well in innovating the delivery of certain public services <a href="https://www.metrolinx.com/en/aboutus/inthecommunity/theplan/2017-08-10%20Residents%20Reference%20Panal%20Final%20Report.pdf">like transportation</a>, but the country has yet to explore how it can strengthen democracy through representative and constituency work. </p>
<h2>Rebooting Canada’s political system</h2>
<p>There is evidence from the <a href="https://connectingtocongress.org/">Connecting to Congress</a> and <a href="https://connect2parliament.com/">Connect to Parliament</a>, projects in the United States and Australia respectively, that Canada can transform its political system to be more efficient and responsive.</p>
<p>This could lead to a public that’s more willing to be engaged in politics, learn and converse with their neighbours and have favourable opinions of politicians, even if they’re aligned differently on the political spectrum. It’s achieved by designing meaningful deliberative town halls where members of the public get to have a say in policy.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-anti-poverty-initiative-focuses-on-lived-experiences-to-help-shape-policy-192305">New anti-poverty initiative focuses on lived experiences to help shape policy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In Australia, Connecting to Parliament hosted a series of deliberative town halls in the district of Fenner, near the capital of Canberra, between residents and their MP, Andrew Leigh. </p>
<p>The topic was about reversing the ban on <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/mitochondrial-donation#:%7E:text=Mitochondrial%20donation%20is%20an%20assisted,passed%20on%20to%20an%20embryo.">mitochondrial donation</a>, a reproductive technology. </p>
<p>In 2020, the Australian government decided to permit a free vote on the topic, and Leigh <a href="https://www.andrewleigh.com/mitochondrial_donation_law_reform_maeve_s_law_bill_2021_speech_house_of_representatives">allowed his constituents to have their say and determine his vote</a> through a series of online and in-person deliberative town halls. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1303970465526947841"}"></div></p>
<p>So far, deliberative town halls have been held with individual elected members of the U.S. Congress and Australian parliament, but not systematically rolled out.</p>
<h2>How Canada can boost civic engagement</h2>
<p>I believe Canadian officials must build on this model on a large scale, consistent with Canada’s pledges on public engagement in the <a href="https://www.opengovpartnership.org/members/canada/commitments/CA0060/">Open Government Partnership</a>, which is already exploring how to establish a permanent forum for public dialogue. The federal government could use a <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/6005ceb747a6a51d636af58d/t/6010d0afcf56e50b6225c3cc/1611714741352/DAF2020.pdf">democratic action fund</a> to host the conversations. </p>
<p>Canadian Parliament should hold two rounds of online/offline civic engagement in Canada after every election cycle to introduce publicly informed and determined legislation on any given issue. </p>
<p>It would work like this: A first round of 338 deliberative town halls would consist of every federal MP conducting a riding-based, deliberative mini-public, crowd-sourcing community ideas via a survey in advance, and then choose to submit a collectively agreed-upon idea.</p>
<p>Elected officials in Parliament would then commit to selecting a menu of issues on the basis of a free vote, and these would move forward for further rounds of consideration. </p>
<p>In the second round of this process, MPs would then go back to their community for more discussion on the selected issues, and put forward just one, which the MP would then vote for in a parliamentary ranked-ballot conscience vote. </p>
<p>The top selection would move forward for parliamentary scrutiny. The mechanism could also apply to the Senate, or other levels of government. </p>
<p>Ultimately, there is room for tweaks and improvement, and further public participation via online input during the initial rounds and then at the latter stages of parliamentary reading.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The West Block of Parliament Hill is pictured with orange, yellow and red trees framing it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493002/original/file-20221102-26784-9wqwug.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493002/original/file-20221102-26784-9wqwug.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493002/original/file-20221102-26784-9wqwug.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493002/original/file-20221102-26784-9wqwug.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493002/original/file-20221102-26784-9wqwug.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493002/original/file-20221102-26784-9wqwug.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493002/original/file-20221102-26784-9wqwug.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This place could be a lot more responsive to the public.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Power to the people</h2>
<p>Problems with party politics abound, largely driven by the fusion of executive and legislative powers that enforces party discipline to ensure laws are passed.</p>
<p>This process would help solve the issue of backbenchers lacking influence, which by default also undermines local constituents. This also offers a new way for private member’s bills to be developed and gives a level of influence to the public.</p>
<p>If we aim for <a href="https://doi.org/10.7208/9780226588674-015">repeated and open interactions</a> between politicians and the public, it will enhance our arguably very limited parliamentary engagement efforts. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-deliberative-democracy-research-in-nepal-shows-it-could-spur-global-youth-voting-189204">What's 'deliberative' democracy? Research in Nepal shows it could spur global youth voting</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The design of these deliberative town halls would have to involve considerations of inclusion and efficiency.</p>
<p>That means selection procedures would have to ensure that the participants are diverse, that moderation is inclusive of all opinions, information is balanced with the potential use of local experts on the subject, and decision-making is transparent. From there, there must be online and/or in-person opportunities to participate and build connections. </p>
<p>Canadian democracy demands new ways of engaging citizens in Parliament. It’s time to act on this demand.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193687/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick Vlahos is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Centre for Deliberative Democracy and Global Governance, University of Canberra, Australia, and leads the Connecting to Parliament project. </span></em></p>Problems with party politics abound, largely driven by the fusion of executive and legislative powers that enforces party discipline. Here’s how to get the public more involved.Nick Vlahos, Postdoctoral Fellow, Political Science, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1928892022-10-24T08:38:33Z2022-10-24T08:38:33ZSouth Africa’s parliament fails to hold the executive to account: history shows what can happen<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491018/original/file-20221021-22-3ulusp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Cyril Ramaphosa addresses a parliamentary session.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GCIS/Flickr</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In South Africa’s <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/history-apartheid-south-africa">apartheid era</a> from 1948 to 1994, the executive arm of government dominated over parliament. In any system, this allows a small group of politicians to dominate the larger body of elected representatives from which they are drawn, with no effective limitations. Corruption and abuse of power almost always follow directly. </p>
<p>At the start of the new democratic era, the drafters of the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/images/a108-96.pdf">1996 constitution</a> changed this. The constitution gives the legislature the authority and the obligation to oversee the exercise of public power, and hold the executive accountable. </p>
<p>The constitution contains nearly 40 provisions to do this. Chief among these provisions is <a href="https://myconstitution.co.za/en/04.html#powers-of-national-assembly">section 55 (2)</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The National Assembly must provide for mechanisms – (a) to ensure that all executive organs of state in the national sphere of government are accountable to it; and (b) to maintain oversight of (i) the exercise of national executive authority, including the implementation of legislation; and (ii) any organ of state.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The foundational values of “<a href="https://myconstitution.co.za/en/01.html#republic-of-south-africa">accountability, responsiveness and openness</a>” in section 1(d) of the constitution demanded a radical change in parliament’s relationship with the executive.</p>
<p>In 1994, the Speaker of Parliament began a range of initiatives to get the change under way. I undertook three projects at her request between 1996 and 1999: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>a system of mandatory disclosure of financial interests by every MP and their immediate family members </p></li>
<li><p>a system of parliament scrutinising every piece of subordinate legislation made by the executive to test it for constitutional compliance</p></li>
<li><p>setting out parliament’s obligations under section 55 of the constitution. This is now known as the <a href="https://pmg.org.za/committee-meeting/268/">“Corder Report”</a>. I wrote this report with two colleagues. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>The report recommended legislation to set standards of accountability and institutional independence. It proposed new rules about how the two houses of parliament should report to parliamentary committees. And it suggested there should be a Standing Committee on Constitutional Institutions, essentially what the constitution calls the State Institutions supporting Constitutional Democracy, <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/legislation/constitution/saconstitution-web-eng-09.pdf">or the Chapter 9 bodies</a>. These include the Public Protector, the Human Rights Commission and the Auditor-general.</p>
<p>Parliament responded only partially and ineffectively. It referred the matter to the Rules Committee, which changed some portfolio committee processes. But the changes did not embrace the spirit of the constitutional obligations.</p>
<p>Parliament failed to live up to its constitutional mandate. This failure was noted by the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/202206/electronic-state-capture-commission-report-part-vi-vol-ii.pdf">State Capture Commission</a> as having contributed to the relative ease with which the administration of former president Jacob Zuma, and its fellow travellers, could <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-state-capture-commission-nears-its-end-after-four-years-was-it-worth-it-182898">corrupt state behaviour</a>. </p>
<p>The absence of standards of accountability and the fact that portfolio committees are not independent, are the reasons parliament is failing in its constitutional mandate to hold the executive accountable. </p>
<p>This matters because the lack of parliamentary vigilance has a number of consequences. The first is that the executive and public administration will succumb to the temptations that their power gives them. The second is that the electorate is failed by its direct representatives. Thirdly, that the organs of state which must secure integrity (the courts and <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/legislation/constitution/saconstitution-web-eng-09.pdf">Chapter 9 institutions</a>) are placed under undue stress. And finally, it falls to civil society and public-spirited individuals to take on the burden of challenging the abuse of power.</p>
<h2>History of accountability</h2>
<p>A condition of the exercise of power in a constitutional democracy is that the administration or executive is checked by being held accountable to an organ of government distinct from it.</p>
<p>Accountability means explaining decisions or actions, making amends for any fault and taking steps to prevent a recurrence. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/about-state-legislatures/separation-of-powers-an-overview.aspx">separation of powers</a> has been the foundation stone of democratic government since the 17th century. Public power was divided among the executive, judicial, and legislative branches of government. Methods of mutual checking and balancing were established. </p>
<p>During the 20th century, executive power expanded so as to meet the needs of growing populations in a changing world. </p>
<p>The executive branch thus came to dominate the legislature. The judicial authority rose in prominence after 1945. This, as bills of fundamental rights and an increasing emphasis on the lawful exercise of public power made their way into national constitutions. </p>
<h2>African experience</h2>
<p>Almost all African countries experienced these developments in their formal liberation from European imperialism in the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/central-Africa/The-end-of-the-colonial-period">second half of the 1900s</a>. </p>
<p>The pattern of allocating power began to shift in the early 1990s, with freedom coming finally to <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/dated-event/namibia-gains-independence">Namibia</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/question/How-did-apartheid-end">South Africa </a>. This coincided with the collapse of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-fall-of-the-berlin-wall-30-years-ago-resonated-across-africa-126521">Soviet empire</a>, and a rash of constitution-making in central and eastern Europe. This soon followed in mainly Anglophone Africa.</p>
<p>These new constitutions typically gave pride of place to bills of rights. They gave the superior courts the authority to test whether rights had been infringed and whether government decisions and actions were lawful and constitutional. The judicial branch of government rose in political prominence. This, in turn, focused attention on judges’ independence and accountability. </p>
<p>Given the experience in the developed world, the drafters of these new constitutions recognised that politicians would put pressure on the courts. So the inclusion of what the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/images/a108-96.pdf">South African constitution</a> calls <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/legislation/constitution/saconstitution-web-eng-09.pdf">state institutions supporting constitutional democracy</a> took hold. </p>
<p>Most modern constitutions in Africa followed suit. They established bodies such as the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/759228#metadata_info_tab_contents">ombudsman</a> or <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23644677#metadata_info_tab_contents">public protectors</a> and <a href="https://www.hrw.org/reports/2001/africa/overview/factors.html">human rights</a> and <a href="https://cge.org.za/">gender commissions</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.loc.gov/item/lcwaN0027328/">Independent electoral commissions</a>, <a href="https://www.oagkenya.go.ke/">auditors-general</a>, and <a href="https://www.acc.gov.zm/">anti-corruption commissions</a> also came into being. These bodies, collectively known as the integrity branch of government, complement the review powers of the courts in holding the executive to account.</p>
<p>How have these arrangements translated into practice?</p>
<p>The general picture across Africa is patchy. There are only isolated examples of the legislature demanding answers from the president and cabinet. This results in the denial of constitutional rights. It puts even more pressure on the courts to come to the rescue and exposes the judiciary to <a href="https://theconversation.com/rule-of-law-in-south-africa-protects-even-those-who-scorn-it-175533">unwarranted attack</a>.</p>
<p>The South African legislature is no exception.</p>
<h2>Failure of accountability</h2>
<p>There are many reasons why the South African parliament has failed to hold the executive accountable. </p>
<p>Foremost is the control that political party bosses exercise over members of parliament. This is due to the country’s <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/content/Elections/Election-types/">party-list proportional representation</a> electoral system.</p>
<p>The majority party in parliament (the African National Congress) has held that position since 1994. It chairs all but one of the portfolio and standing committees, which are the chief mechanisms for accountability.</p>
<p>Where the party whip demands unquestioning obedience, <a href="http://www.channelafrica.co.za/sabc/home/channelafrica/news/details?id=82e4a0ee-0d92-471e-bb17-67ed587a816d&title=Ramaphosa%20defends%20ANC%20MPs%E2%80%99%20need%20to%20toe%20the%20party%20line">as has been the case</a>, parliamentary committees ask few questions and fail to hold the executive to account. This, despite the best intentions of opposition (and even some governing) MPs. </p>
<p>It forces people to use <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/promotion-access-information-act">access to information routes</a> or other less open means of exposing the abuse of power or maladministration.</p>
<p>For this reason, the <a href="https://www.statecapture.org.za/">State Capture Commission</a> has advised that the <a href="https://theconversation.com/constitutional-court-ruling-heralds-changes-to-south-africas-electoral-system-140668">electoral system</a> and some aspects of the committee functions should be reviewed. This would weaken the grip of the party on its MPs. </p>
<p>Given the <a href="https://theconversation.com/factionalism-and-corruption-could-kill-the-anc-unless-it-kills-both-first-116924">divisions within its ranks</a>, the ANC is unlikely to promote any steps that undermine the influence of its leadership cohort.</p>
<p>All those who value the responsible exercise of public power in a constitutional democracy will support such a recommendation. But few will be holding their breath.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192889/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hugh Corder has in the past received funding from the NRF of South Africa. He is affiliated with the Council for the Advancement of the South African Constitution and Freedom under Law. </span></em></p>Parliament’s failure to live up to its constitutional mandate was noted by the State Capture Commission as having enabled former president Zuma’s regime to corrupt state behaviour with ease.Hugh Corder, Professor Emeritus of Public Law, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1927492022-10-20T14:07:31Z2022-10-20T14:07:31ZLesotho elections: turnout was down to 38% - new leaders will have to deal with political discontent<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490392/original/file-20221018-6100-n3odix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sam Matekane, Lesotho's new prime minister has the daunting job of restoring public trust in politics and government.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Molise Molise/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The southern African kingdom of Lesotho went to the polls on <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/10/millionaire-wins-lesotho-vote-but-no-majority-officials">7 October 2022</a>. Or at least some of its voters did. Turnout was at an all-time <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sdowO4GcCATh1ahqd0YoUldQAbeDvxCPxfXbsF95XKc/edit#gid=1965305309">low of 38%</a> of registered voters. Many are expressing discontent with politics in Lesotho by <a href="https://www.afrobarometer.org/publication/ad309-election-fatigue-half-basotho-want-different-way-choose-leaders/">refusing to participate</a>. Those that did come out were in an anti-incumbent mood.</p>
<p>This turnout was almost 10 percentage points below the 47% who voted in the last elections in <a href="https://production-new-commonwealth-files.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/migrated/inline/Lesotho%20COG%202017%20-%20Report%20-%20final%20draft.pdf">2017</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://mg.co.za/africa/2022-10-12-who-is-lesothos-new-prime-minister-mogul-sam-matekane/">Sam Ntsokoane Matekane</a>, a wealthy businessman who has never been engaged formally in politics before this year, emerged as the new prime minister. At 64, he’s much younger than the men who have hitherto dominated politics in Lesotho – <a href="https://pantheon.world/profile/person/Tom_Thabane/">Tom Thabane</a> was 81 when he was forced to resign in 2020 after being charged with the murder of his ex-wife; <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Pakalitha-Mosisili">Pakalitha Mosisili</a> was 72 when he left office for the last time in 2017. Only <a href="https://www.blackpast.org/global-african-history/people-global-african-history/moeketsi-majoro-1961/">Moeketsi Majoro</a> (60), whom Matekane succeeds, is younger than him. </p>
<p>Matekane’s Revolution for Prosperity, a party formed only <a href="https://mg.co.za/africa/2022-10-11-revolution-for-prosperity-wins-lesotho-elections-but-observers-flag-irregularities/">in March</a>, won 56 seats out of 120 in parliament. He combined with two smaller parties, the Movement for Economic Change and the Alliance of Democrats, to form a <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2022/10/11/matekane-announces-three-party-coalition-in-lesotho/">governing coalition</a>. </p>
<p>All the parties that had been in the last parliament lost some seats. The <a href="https://www.thepost.co.ls/comment/news-pst/why-abc-lost-the-elections-2/">All Basotho Convention</a>, the party occupying the prime minister’s office from 2017 to 2022, fell from 48 seats to eight.</p>
<p>The last parliament failed to pass a series of <a href="https://theconversation.com/lesotho-bungles-political-reforms-risking-fresh-bout-of-instability-after-2022-poll-191778">political and security reforms</a>. Those bills would have ended parliamentary representation for tiny parties and curbed the power of the prime minister. The prime minister’s power to appoint the judiciary, for one thing, means that Basotho perceive politics as a rigged game in favour of those with <a href="https://lestimes.com/thabane-maesaiah-walk-free/">power and connections</a>. Voters hope Matekane’s coalition will prioritise passing reforms.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lesotho-elections-newcomers-score-impressive-win-but-politics-will-still-be-unstable-192466">Lesotho elections: newcomers score impressive win, but politics will still be unstable</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Matekane’s victory is, perhaps, Lesotho’s last and best chance to actually enact the <a href="https://theconversation.com/lesotho-bungles-political-reforms-risking-fresh-bout-of-instability-after-2022-poll-191778">political reforms</a> that will allow the country to move forward from a decade of political malaise and non-governance. Voters are tired of the old politicians and their unwillingness and inability to solve the pressing problems of poverty, crumbling infrastructure and social service under-investment. </p>
<h2>Hope amid disillusion</h2>
<p>While Matekane’s party won a majority of the directly elected seats, it still polled under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Lesotho_general_election">40% of the total vote</a>. This is because Lesotho, a country of about 2.1 million people, has <a href="https://www.iec.org.ls/political-parties/">65 registered political parties</a>. No party can command a majority. This has led in the recent past (2012-2022) to ever-shifting coalitions and repeated changes of government. Hence, general <a href="https://www.afrobarometer.org/publication/pp57-declining-trust-basotho-perceptions-government-corruption-and-performance-drive/">disillusionment</a>.</p>
<p>The election turfed out many established politicians, with only the main opposition <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Democratic-Congress">Democratic Congress</a> reaching <a href="https://www.thepost.co.ls/comment/news-pst/why-the-dc-misfired/">double-digit numbers</a> of parliamentary seats.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-lesothos-in-such-a-mess-and-what-can-be-done-about-it-79678">Why Lesotho's in such a mess and what can be done about it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The Revolution for Prosperity party poached a few established politicians to run, but largely relies on the <a href="https://www.theafricareport.com/250918/lesothos-sam-matekane-from-farmer-to-richest-man-to-prime-minister/">rags-to-riches story</a> of founder Matekane for its appeal. One of 14 children in his family, he was born in a rural village in the mountains near the town of Mantsonyane. </p>
<p>He left school before completing secondary education and built a business empire. Starting in road construction and mining transport, the company diversified into real estate, aviation and more. Matekane himself kept a low profile for many years, but in the past few years has increased his <a href="https://publiceyenews.com/matekane-wins-forbes-award/">public visibility through charitable giving</a> and as chair of a private sector group working to get more COVID-19 vaccinations to Lesotho. </p>
<p>Matekane will be challenged to work within a parliamentary system where he, as prime minister, will have plenty of power but not absolute control as he did in business. The art of compromise will be one he needs to master, and quickly. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-lesotho-can-teach-eswatini-and-south-africa-about-key-political-reforms-184260">What Lesotho can teach Eswatini and South Africa about key political reforms</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>He has come to office saying the right things about ending corruption, making government more transparent, and reforming a political system prone to gridlock and quick shifts of government. If he manages to finally pass the national reforms that stalled in the last parliament, the weary electorate in Lesotho will likely reward his party handsomely. </p>
<p>If, however, his party falls into infighting, the electorate could continue to lose hope in democracy as a <a href="https://www.afrobarometer.org/publication/ad535-basotho-approach-election-with-grim-outlook-on-economy-and-democracy/">means of governance</a>.</p>
<h2>Headwinds</h2>
<p>The party’s inability to win an outright majority means another coalition. Its partner Alliance of Democrats is led by long-time politician <a href="https://prabook.com/web/monyane.moleleki/2086119">Monyane Moleleki</a>, who said in April that <a href="https://www.thepost.co.ls/news/i-made-matekane-rich-moleleki/">he had “made” Matekane</a> by steering his companies’ government contracts. </p>
<p>The other coalition party, the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/MovementforEconomicChange/">Movement for Economic Change</a>, is led by <a href="https://www.facebook.com/selibeselibe.mochoboroane/">Selibe Mochoboroane</a>, who currently faces <a href="https://www.newsdayonline.co.ls/mochoboroane-charged-for-treason-and-murder/">treason charges</a> related to the 2014 coup attempt.</p>
<p>Both leaders are seen as linked with the fractious coalition politics of the 2012-2022 period. Some Basotho are disappointed that Matekane had to include them in government.</p>
<p>The bigger question is whether the Revolution for Prosperity party can push through amendments to the constitution. They were mandated by the <a href="https://www.sadc.int/">Southern African Development Community</a> after repeated attempts to settle Lesotho’s political feuds dragged on for <a href="https://issafrica.org/iss-today/sadc-shouldnt-scrap-lesotho-from-its-agenda-just-yet">much of 2017-2022</a>. </p>
<p>The last parliament then <a href="https://theconversation.com/lesotho-due-to-hold-elections-despite-lack-of-progress-on-key-political-reforms-185542">failed to pass them</a>. They would have limited the power of parties and individual members of parliament. The new coalition promised to quickly pass them. Its popularity, somewhat ironically, will rest on curbing its own powers.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-efforts-to-stabilise-lesotho-have-failed-less-intervention-may-be-more-effective-137499">South Africa's efforts to stabilise Lesotho have failed. Less intervention may be more effective</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>No matter what the government does, the Lesotho populace is hurting from the continued effects of the COVID pandemic. The border shutdown during the pandemic meant hardship for much of the population which is still largely dependent on <a href="https://migrants-refugees.va/country-profile/lesotho/">migrant labour</a> to South Africa. The textile factories in Maseru have retrenched around 20,000 workers, leaving only about <a href="https://lesothoexpress.com/more-bad-news-for-factory-workers/">30,000 employed</a> there now. There are few other secondary industries. Government is the major employer, and Matekane said he would bring <a href="https://mobile.twitter.com/Lestimes/status/1579868917069414400">“austerity”</a> to the national government.</p>
<h2>Daunting task</h2>
<p>Unable to change the country’s fundamental vulnerability to shifts in the global and regional economy, Matekane has few economic levers to pull. He will have to rely on his own personal persuasiveness. Even more difficult, he needs to get parliamentarians to limit their own personal power, and convince citizens he has changed the system. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/zakes-mda-on-his-latest-novel-set-in-lesothos-musical-gang-wars-170839">Zakes Mda on his latest novel, set in Lesotho's musical gang wars</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Many Basotho put their faith in the local champion from Mantsonyane who beat the odds to become the country’s richest man. His term as prime minister could bring about a more stable and better-governed Lesotho.</p>
<p><em>Headline changed.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192749/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Aerni-Flessner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Unable to change the country’s vulnerability to shifts in the global and regional economy, the new prime minister Matekane has few economic levers to pull.John Aerni-Flessner, Associate Professor of African History, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1912982022-09-28T10:45:46Z2022-09-28T10:45:46ZWhy Labour will resist calls for electoral alliances, even when facing the prospect of a hung parliament<p>“We can’t work with them. We won’t work with them. No deal under any circumstances.” So said Labour leader Keir Starmer of the Scottish National Party during his 2022 <a href="https://labour.org.uk/press/keir-starmer-conference-speech/">party conference speech</a>. </p>
<p>Starmer was nixing any suggestion that his party could join forces with the SNP in an electoral alliance to defeat the Conservatives at the next election. Speculation on the matter stems from the electoral maths following the Conservative Party’s huge victory in 2019. To win in the next election, Labour needs a 10.52% swing – higher than Tony Blair achieved in 1997. Even then it would have a thin majority. There are any number of other scenarios in which Labour ends up the largest party but fails to win enough seats to govern alone. </p>
<p>The SNP holds many seats in Scotland so the deal in its case would be some kind of post-election government pact. But this would necessarily involve Labour promising a second independence referendum and Starmer insists he will not be dictated to by Nicola Sturgeon. </p>
<p>With that possibility off the table, thoughts might therefore turn to England, where a pre-electoral alliance with the Liberal Democrats seems the most obvious solution. The only sure-fire kind of formal electoral alliance is one where a political party decides not to stand a candidate to clear the path for another candidate from a different party.</p>
<p>Politics since 1918 has been dominated by the Conservatives, in the sense that they have won more general elections than Labour. Maybe the time has come for the left to wise up and put aside the narcissism of small differences to create a new broad coalition. Why should Labour and the Liberal Democrats stand candidates against one another when the result will be a split in the progressive vote that can only benefit the Tories? </p>
<p>Framed in this way, the possibility of a progressive victory seems more achievable. Indeed, <a href="https://www.compassonline.org.uk/publications/english-democracy-electoral-reform-england-union/">Compass</a>, the political think-tank, has been calling for a rainbow alliance. Labour needs the Liberal Democrats to take some Tory seats in England that it will never be able to take by itself.</p>
<p>Labour owes its very existence as a major player to an electoral pact with the Liberals that allowed it to take 29 seats in the 1906 election. That, however, does not mean it is particularly open to the idea now, for quite a few reasons.</p>
<h2>Bad blood collides with first past the post</h2>
<p>A serious objection to the idea of a progressive alliance is that it reduces democratic choice. If a Liberal Democrat living in an area likely to be taken by Labour wishes to vote for Ed Davey’s party, he or she should have the right to do so. It is perfectly respectable to say that a vote should be a declaration of one’s personal beliefs rather than an instrumental gesture designed to secure a particular kind of government.</p>
<p>Another objection is that Labour and the Liberal Democrats are not the same. If they were, they would have merged a long time ago. There is a lot of bad blood between the two parties. Memories of the latter’s time in <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&lr=&id=Q5PGCwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PT6&dq=liberal+democrats+coalition+&ots=BNh24L5STP&sig=oEbBBNU1vc5QwQK64tmZQ8LUXMM&redir_esc=y">coalition with the Conservatives</a> between 2010 and 2015 are still fresh. Labour activists do not forget that Davey was a minister in a Tory-dominated government that introduced austerity measures.</p>
<p>There have always been Liberal Democrats (like the former party leader Nick Clegg) who have seemed more attuned to working with Tories. I have been struck over the years by the number of people in the Labour Party who will be perfectly polite when conversing with Tories (though disagreeing with them) but will refuse to give Liberal Democrats the time of day because of the alleged dirty tricks they pull in electioneering.</p>
<p>Liberal Democrats would argue that many Labour people do not understand their focus on the importance of freedom and liberty. They would also point to the disaster of the Iraq War when Labour was in power. Certainly, the Liberal Democrats have always been divided between those who lean towards Labour and those who do not.</p>
<p>Then there is the question of proportional representation. In exchange for agreeing to an alliance, the Liberal Democrats would almost certainly insist that the electoral system is reformed to break the dominance of the two biggest political parties, both of whom benefit from a first-past-the-post system in which the candidate with the most number of votes takes the parliamentary seat, regardless of whether those votes amount to a majority of the overall total. </p>
<p>Labour party members <a href="https://labourlist.org/2022/09/conference-passes-motion-urging-labour-to-introduce-pr-for-general-elections/">voted at their 2022 conference</a> in favour of such reform. Starmer, however, says it is “not a priority” and looks set to ignore the will of his party on the matter. </p>
<p>Labour has, by and large, backed first past the post because it seems the best route to ensuring that the party can get into office and implement its programme without compromise or trade-offs. And while <a href="https://www.natcen.ac.uk/news-media/press-releases/2022/september/half-of-britain-wants-voting-system-to-change,-with-clear-majority-among-labour-supporters/">recent research</a> showed a majority of the public now support electoral reform, the fact remains that it is low down on the list of priorities even for those who feel positively about it. Perhaps not surprisingly, therefore, Starmer does not see it as a risk worth taking.</p>
<p>The prospect of a pact between Labour and the Liberal Democrats therefore appears vanishingly thin. But those hoping for a less formal mutually beneficial relationship should not despair. Such an alliance is already happening among an electorate that has, over time, become more sophisticated when it comes to tactical voting.</p>
<p>In the 1997 election, Labour and the Liberal Democrats succeeded in creating a <a href="https://www.compassonline.org.uk/publications/1997-labour-lib-dems-progressive-alliance/">pincer movement</a> around the Tories, delivering a landslide for Labour. While recent attempts have been less successful, the wider electoral picture has been less favourable than it is now. Since 1997, a wealth of <a href="https://www.electionanalysis.uk/uk-election-analysis-2019/section-2-voters-polls-and-results/tactical-voting-advice-sites/">websites</a> have sprung up to help people vote tactically without any formal assistance from their parties.</p>
<p>At the next election, the left’s best bet is some kind of informal form of tactical voting to gain traction. Don’t expect Labour and the Liberal Democrats to make any overt statements to that effect, but look out for them discretely abandoning routine attacks on each other, except on a token basis.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191298/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rohan McWilliam is affiliated with the Labour Party.</span></em></p>Forming a pact with the Liberal Democrats would make electoral sense in England – but Keir Starmer does not see it as a risk worth taking.Rohan McWilliam, Professor of Modern British History, Anglia Ruskin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1901362022-09-21T22:08:39Z2022-09-21T22:08:39ZHow Victorian Labor’s failure on upper house electoral reform undermines democracy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485458/original/file-20220920-325-b0kwpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Joel Carrett</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>At the 2018 Victorian state election, Labor easily won a majority in the lower house of the Victorian parliament, but the upper house result was an anti-democratic shambles, as the Greens won just one of the 40 upper house seats, while three parties with very small vote shares won seats.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-upper-house-greatly-distorted-by-group-voting-tickets-federal-labor-still-dominant-in-newspoll-108488">Victorian upper house greatly distorted by group voting tickets; federal Labor still dominant in Newspoll</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The 2018 upper house result was due to “group voting tickets (GVT)”, in which parties choose the preferences of all people who vote for them “above the line”.</p>
<p>Results like in Victoria 2018 have led to GVT being scrapped in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Group_voting_ticket">New South Wales</a> before the 2003 election, the federal Senate before the 2016 election, and in South Australia before the 2018 election, while reforms to the Western Australian upper house <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/wa-to-adopt-state-wide-election-for-the-legislative-council/">will be implemented</a> at the 2025 election.</p>
<p>Victoria is the last Australian jurisdiction that still uses GVT. All other jurisdictions that used GVT have replaced it with systems that allow voters to direct their own preferences above the line. Preferences are either completely optional (NSW, SA and WA) or require at least six boxes to be marked above the line (federal Senate).</p>
<p>GVT will be used at the November 26 Victorian state election, after no changes to the electoral law were made by Wednesday’s last Victorian <a href="https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/about/daily-calendar/yearly-sitting-dates">parliamentary sitting day</a> before the election.</p>
<p>Victoria uses eight upper house regions that return five members each, so a quota is one-sixth of the vote, or 16.7%. In 2018 the Greens won 9.3% of the statewide upper house vote, but just one of 40 seats (2.5%). There were three occasions where a party won a seat in a region from under 0.1 quotas (1.5% of votes).</p>
<p>GVT allow very small parties to overtake far bigger parties on 100% preference flows from other parties’ above the line votes. When voters direct their own preferences, the GVT preference spiral does not occur. At the last federal election, preferences were only decisive in one Senate seat: <a href="https://theconversation.com/act-senate-result-pocock-defeats-liberals-in-first-time-liberals-have-not-won-one-act-senate-seat-184738">David Pocock’s win</a> in the ACT Senate.</p>
<h2>Labor has neglected to reform GVT</h2>
<p>Labor has been the Victorian government since the November 2014 state election, under Premier Daniel Andrews. In the eight years Labor has governed, they have never proposed anything to scrap GVT and move to a more democratic system. This is a dereliction of Labor’s responsibility to ensure elections are democratic.</p>
<p>At the 2018 election, the upper house result was 18 Labor out of 40, 11 Coalition, one Green, three Derryn Hinch Justice, two Liberal Democrats, and one each for Animal Justice, Sustainable Australia, Transport Matters, Fiona Patten and Shooters, Fishers & Farmers. As tied votes fail, 21 votes are needed to pass legislation.</p>
<p>Labor and the Greens alone could not pass reforms scrapping GVT through the current upper house, and the crossbenchers who owe their seats to GVT are not interested in reforms. But at the 2018 election, the Coalition lost three seats that they would have won under a fairer system.</p>
<p>The Coalition and Labor still easily have a combined majority in the upper house. Labor should have made a concrete proposal for reform. If the Coalition rejected that proposal, then the current situation would be their fault.</p>
<p>Labor has not even attempted to abolish GVT in the last eight years, so we will be stuck with an upper house elected by GVT for at least the next four years.</p>
<h2>Labor likely to suffer losses in upper house if vote share falls</h2>
<p>If the major parties are strong, the effect of GVT is reduced as they will win a large share of seats on filled quotas. In Victoria, if Labor won 50% in a region and the Coalition 33.3%, Labor would win three seats and the Coalition two.</p>
<p>Upper house vote shares at the 2018 election were 39.2% Labor, 29.4% Coalition, 9.3% Greens and 3.8% Hinch Justice. Labor won 16 of its 18 seats on raw quotas, and received some assistance in Western Metro and Northern Victoria regions.</p>
<p>At the May federal election, the Victorian Senate result had the Coalition down 3.6% from the 2019 election, but Labor’s vote was only up 0.3% with the Greens up 3.2%. Lower <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-newspoll-gives-labor-big-lead-three-months-before-election-189473">house polling</a> for the state election suggests Labor’s primary vote will be down on 2018, with the Greens up.</p>
<p>If Labor’s vote falls, they will win fewer upper house seats on raw quotas, meaning they could be beaten by GVT snowballs. The Greens would benefit from a higher vote share to allow them to reach quota in the Southern Metro region as well as Northern Metro.</p>
<p>In 2018, Labor did well and the Greens and Coalition badly from GTV, but that will not necessarily apply at the forthcoming election. Even if Labor wins the lower house decisively, as polls currently indicate, the upper house could be a massive mess.</p>
<p>I have no idea which particular others will win seats: it’s a lottery that depends on preference deals. But Labor’s failure to do anything about this system could lead to anti-vaxxers winning seats.</p>
<h2>What voters can do to thwart preference deals</h2>
<p>For a valid vote, Victoria only requires <a href="https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/voting/2022-state-election/how-to-fill-out-a-ballot-paper">five preferences below the line</a>. The below the line section of the ballot paper has candidate names grouped by party. Voting below the line means the voter controls where their preferences go; it’s not up to party preference deals.</p>
<p>For a meaningful vote, it’s best if people vote at least 1-5 below the line. They can continue to number beyond 5, but only five preferences are required for a formal vote.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190136/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Victorian Labor has had ample time to reform upper house voting - its failure to do so is a blight on democracy in the state.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist), The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1882592022-08-05T17:19:41Z2022-08-05T17:19:41ZVacuum of ideas at ANC policy conference bodes ill for South Africa’s governing party<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477859/original/file-20220805-7920-a3hr2o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The governing ANC's policy proposals don't inspire confidence.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA/Kim Ludbrook</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa is in the throes of an unprecedented, multifaceted socio-economic crisis requiring substantive, impactful policy interventions. Yet, having attended the governing African National Congress’s recent five-yearly <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2022/08/01/read-in-full-ramaphosa-s-closing-adress-at-anc-policy-conference">national policy conference</a>, which was supposed to show how the party intends to steer the country forward, I wonder if it actually appreciates the enormity of the problems facing the nation. </p>
<p>A phrase from Italian philosopher and poet <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Dante-Alighieri">Alighieri Dante</a>’s 1320 poem Divine Comedy comes to mind: </p>
<blockquote>
<p><a href="https://literarydevices.net/abandon-hope-all-ye-who-enter-here/">Abandon hope all ye who enter here</a>.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The <a href="https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/category/features/anc-2022-policy-conference/">policy deliberations and proposals</a> fell hopelessly short of addressing the country’s pressing problems – <a href="https://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=15407#:%7E:text=According%20to%20the%20Quarterly%20Labour,stands%20at%2034%2C5%25.">high unemployment</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-economy-has-taken-some-heavy-body-blows-can-it-recover-183165">poor economy</a>, <a href="https://www.saps.gov.za/services/downloads/April-to-March%202020_21-presentation.pdf">high crime</a> and <a href="https://www.statecapture.org.za/">massive corruption</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/rape-is-endemic-in-south-africa-why-the-anc-government-keeps-missing-the-mark-188235">violence against against women</a>. </p>
<p>The subdued conference exposed a deficit of new policy thinking, and failed to provide solutions. It certainly did not live up to party leader and national president Cyril Ramaphosa’s declaration in his <a href="https://docs.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=https://www.anc1912.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/ANC-Today-29-July-2022-Policy-Conference-Edition.pdf">opening address</a> that the conference would be defining moment for the ANC and the country. </p>
<p>What followed was not a good omen for the governing party, which is seeking reelection <a href="https://www.eisa.org/wep/southafrica.htm">in 2024</a>. </p>
<p>This analysis is based on my reviews of two sources. The first was the <a href="https://docs.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=https://www.anc1912.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Umrabulo-Policy-Document-18th-May-2022.pdf">ANC’s policy documents</a> that had been prepared to anchor deliberations of branches in preparation for the conference and the thematic commissions set up to tackle particular areas of policy. The second was the <a href="https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/category/features/anc-2022-policy-conference/">reports to the plenaries</a> and the media presented by ANC luminaries. </p>
<p>In my view, there were mismatches between <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-08-01-crisis-the-anc-and-south-africa-makes-a-new-politics-all-the-more-urgent/">the crises facing the nation and proposed solutions</a>. There was a flood of small – or partial – <a href="https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/no-new-major-thinking-forthcoming-out-of-anc-policy-conference-despite-economic-challenges-booysen/">stabs at big problems</a>. A few big ideas came with the proviso that they may be “not affordable”. </p>
<h2>Paucity of ideas</h2>
<p>The deliberations were characterised by disingenuous, counter-factual policy pronouncements, and de facto denials of the ANC’s culpability in causing many of the current problems facing the country.</p>
<p>Foremost among the small stabs at major policy problems was the country’s high levels of unemployment. Beyond recognition of the problem, and the statement that there was a “sombre spirit” in the meeting of the breakaway commission that discussed the issue, nothing new emerged.</p>
<p>Delegates retreated into <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/202010/south-african-economic-reconstruction-and-recovery-plan.pdf">existing economic plans</a> and reiterated the much stated view within the governing party that it has good policies – all that’s <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320549262_POLICY_IMPLEMENTATION_SOME_ASPECTS_AND_ISSUES">missing is good implementation</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/racism-in-south-africa-why-the-anc-has-failed-to-dismantle-patterns-of-white-privilege-187660">Racism in South Africa: why the ANC has failed to dismantle patterns of white privilege</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Over the years, this has become an easy pardon for under-performance.</p>
<p>Absent was any acknowledgement that patronage networks as well as corruption and <a href="https://www.statecapture.org.za/">state capture </a> – the funnelling of public resources for private gain – have become deeply embedded in the party, destroying public trust in it. Conference narratives gave at best timid references to better accountability.</p>
<p>Delegates did <a href="https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/category/features/anc-2022-policy-conference/">condemn</a> high levels of crime and de facto rule by criminal networks, such as those running extortion rackets. But policy proposals on how to deal with the problem were largely absent. </p>
<p>Vague advocacy for better ethics in the party and government was all that was on offer.</p>
<p>Big policy ideas came in repeated proposals for a <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/finance/604520/basic-income-grant-coming-for-south-africa-agency/">basic income grant</a> and implementation of <a href="https://www.health.gov.za/nhi/">National Health Insuranc</a>.</p>
<p>But, the prospects of a basic income grant have been dimmed because the state has already used available emergency funds to address unexpected crises such as COVID, flooding in <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-african-floods-wreaked-havoc-because-people-are-forced-to-live-in-disaster-prone-areas-181309">KwaZulu-Natal</a> and <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/collections/south-africa-flooding-kwazulu-natal-and-eastern-cape-2022">Eastern Cape</a>, and destruction of infrastructure during the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-lies-behind-social-unrest-in-south-africa-and-what-might-be-done-about-it-166130">July 2021 riots</a>. </p>
<p>New funding would depend on rearranging existing social relief and grant budgets, or another wealth tax.</p>
<p>Implementation of the National Health Insurance continues at a pace that’s almost imperceptible. Meanwhile, the country’s public health system is collapsing. The conference did agree to minor new ideas – such as a proposal to increase the number of ambulances. This is hardly the answer to the crisis in the health system. </p>
<h2>A government, or a protest movement?</h2>
<p>The conference <a href="https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/category/features/anc-2022-policy-conference/">bore testimony</a> to fact that the ANC remains confused about its role. It has governed the country for nearly three decades, but often protests against its own government. </p>
<p>Delegates lamented suffering due to the rising cost of living and unemployment, and <a href="https://www.citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/3157545/chemical-castration-child-rapists-27-july-2022/">condemned the scourge of gender-based violence</a>. Yet, the conference did not assume responsibility for the fact that it has been on the ANC’s watch that these problems have come to characterise South African society.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rape-is-endemic-in-south-africa-why-the-anc-government-keeps-missing-the-mark-188235">Rape is endemic in South Africa. Why the ANC government keeps missing the mark</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>There was no shortage of disingenuous policy statements.</p>
<p>On the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-lies-behind-social-unrest-in-south-africa-and-what-might-be-done-about-it-166130">July 2021 unrest</a>, which cost over 350 lives, the conference concluded that it was the work of those ideologically opposed to the ANC’s advances in government. The conference offered no recognition that ANC internal factional politics had wreaked the havoc. </p>
<p>Regarding the <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africans-are-revolting-against-inept-local-government-why-it-matters-155483">dysfunctionality of local governments</a> – most of which are run by the ANC – the proffered solution was the government’s <a href="https://www.cogta.gov.za/ddm/">district development model</a>. It envisages the integration of local municipalities at district level, a process that may help bolster capacity and effective use of national funding at the local government level. </p>
<p>Similarly, there were minimalist pronouncements on forging a new electoral system. The relevant commission simply said, without evidence, that delegates had applied their minds to this problem. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-referendum-on-electoral-reform-in-south-africa-might-stir-up-trouble-186478">stalled reform process</a>, ordered by the Constitutional Court, is supposed to fundamentally change the post-apartheid electoral law to make it fairer by allowing independents <a href="https://theconversation.com/constitutional-court-ruling-heralds-changes-to-south-africas-electoral-system-140668">to contest provincial and national elections</a>. </p>
<p>To address the debilitating instability in local governments run by coalitions, the delegates proposed that future coalitions be based on legally binding contracts to avert their instability. There was no mention that the ANC in local government has been a prime destabilising force wherever it lost to opposition coalitions.</p>
<p>There were more unconvincing platitudes about the need to continue protecting the power utility <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/">Eskom</a>, to pursue a state-owned bank, nationalise the South African Reserve Bank and promote local production of pharmaceuticals. </p>
<h2>Party weakness</h2>
<p>The poverty of policy ideas on offer was expected, given the ANC’s existential crisis. It is at its weakest moment ever, as <a href="https://docs.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=https://www.anc1912.org.za/wp-%20content/uploads/2022/07/ANC-Today-29-July-2022-Policy-Conference-Edition.pdf">Ramaphosa confessed</a>. </p>
<p>From the 1.6 million unverified members figure party spokesperson Pule Mabe <a href="https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/mabe-refutes-claims-that-anc-is-on-a-decline/">claimed in July</a>, a group of us were told on the sidelines of the conference that the party had only 600,000 members in good standing. </p>
<p>Organisational weakness was also evident in the modest (around 2,000) number of delegates. This is less than half the number who attended previous policy conferences. The ANC had also controlled access. Combined with the party’s <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/fm/features/2022-03-24-anc-takes-aim-at-new-party-funding-law/">funding constraints</a>, the <a href="https://docs.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=https://www.anc1912.org.za/wp-%20content/uploads/2022/07/ANC-Today-29-July-2022-Policy-Conference-Edition.pdf">“festival of ideas”</a> turned into quite a subdued affair. </p>
<p>On the organisational unity front, there were minimal outbreaks of factional contest, and disciplinary codes of behaviour helped hold the conference together. This also helped contain the proxy “ideological” battles over the party’s <a href="https://mg.co.za/politics/2022-07-31-anc-policy-conference-retains-ramaphosa-reform-agenda-including-step-aside-rule/">anti-corruption resolution</a>. This requires all those charged with criminal offences to leave their party and government positions.</p>
<p>The policy was <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2022/08/01/read-in-full-ramaphosa-s-closing-adress-at-anc-policy-conference">contested by some delegates</a>. But they didn’t muster enough support to get it removed.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-is-trapped-again-what-kind-of-leaders-can-set-the-country-free-187704">South Africa is trapped again: what kind of leaders can set the country free</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>All in all, the lack of sound policy proposals to address South Africa’s myriad challenges may suggest that the ANC has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ramaphosa-scolds-ruling-anc-losing-south-africans-trust-2022-07-29/">given up hope of making a difference to people’s lives</a>. This has implications for its electoral prospects.</p>
<p>If people’s hopes of it delivering a better future also dissipates, the party’s decline will be sealed. This will mean that the ANC, while probably remaining the biggest party, will increasingly fail to garner outright majorities and be forced into increasing numbers of <a href="https://theconversation.com/marriages-of-inconvenience-the-fraught-politics-of-coalitions-in-south-africa-167517">unstable coalition governments</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188259/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susan Booysen is affiliated with the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection. She writes in her personal capacity. </span></em></p>The deliberations were characterised by disingenuous, counter-factual policy pronouncements, and de facto denials of the ANC’s culpability in causing many of the current problems facing the country.Susan Booysen, Visiting Professor and Professor Emeritus, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1864782022-07-11T14:32:27Z2022-07-11T14:32:27ZA referendum on electoral reform in South Africa might stir up trouble<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472956/original/file-20220707-16-psr2t9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Voters in Johannesburg queue to vote in South Africa's May 2019 national elections. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA/Kim Ludbrook</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>After 28 years of democracy, South Africa is having to reform its political party-based electoral system to make it fairer and in line with the constitution, by allowing independent candidates to <a href="https://perjournal.co.za/article/view/12746">contest national and provincial parliaments</a>. A <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.za/bill/2300397">bill</a> to amend the country’s electoral law accordingly is before parliament.</p>
<p>The present electoral system has underpinned the governing African National Congresses’ (<a href="https://www.anc1912.org.za/">ANC</a>’s) <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-african-voters-are-disillusioned-but-they-havent-found-an-alternative-to-the-anc-171239">dominance of the political system since 1994</a>, not least by making individual MPs accountable to party bosses rather than the voters. This lack of accountability has facilitated the <a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/speeches/statement-president-cyril-ramaphosa-handover-final-part-state-capture-commission-report%2C-union-buildings%2C-pretoria">stunning level of corruption</a> in the country.</p>
<p>Now there are calls for a <a href="https://www.news24.com/citypress/voices/standing-up-to-defend-our-democracy-is-the-only-option-20220702">national referendum</a> on the electoral system to define the way forward, and liberate it from the clutches of party barons. The intention seems to be to give the decision to “the people” rather than to parliament, which is the ordinary way for legislative change to be enacted.</p>
<p>But, this proposal would need to be handled carefully. </p>
<p>Referendums can be easily abused. Politicians often resort to them to avoid responsibility for making a difficult political decision, or to secure backing for a controversial policy and thus beat an opponent.</p>
<p>Examples abound.</p>
<p>British Labour prime minister Harold Wilson’s <a href="https://www.historyextra.com/period/20th-century/britain-decides-the-first-european-referendum/">1975
referendum</a> on whether Britain should stay in the European common market was an example of the first. South African president FW de Klerk’s <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/1992-whites-only-referendum-or-against-negotiated-constitution">1992 referendum</a> among whites to secure backing for entering negotiations with the ANC to end apartheid – thereby scuppering the opposition <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Conservative-Party-political-party-South-Africa">Conservative Party</a> – was an example of the second.</p>
<p>Both Wilson and De Klerk received the answer they wanted and
expected. But politicians can also miscalculate badly. The most obvious example is British Conservative <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/David-Cameron">prime minister David Cameron</a>’s decision to call a referendum <a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-five-years-after-the-referendum-here-are-five-things-weve-learned-162974">in 2016</a> on whether the UK should stay in the European Union.</p>
<p>He fully expected to win, but in the face of a scurrilous campaign by populist politicians like <a href="https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/boris-johnson-exit-is-beginning-end-brexit-2022-07-07/">Boris Johnson</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/13/nigel-farage-hard-right-faction-brexit-net-zero-tory">Nigel Farage</a>, he lost. Today Britain is having to live with the consequences of Brexit: increased costs of imports from Europe, lower exports to Europe, constant supply chain problems, labour shortages and huge difficulties around Northern Ireland.</p>
<h2>Lessons to be drawn</h2>
<p>Britain’s history with referendums is worth noting. South Africa does not want to go the same way. Lessons need to be drawn from these and other examples around the world. </p>
<p>Care and rules are needed for how any referendum, on any question,
would be conducted. </p>
<ul>
<li><p>Who would devise the question put to the electorate? Are they independent, or are they subordinated to the interests of particular politicians?</p></li>
<li><p>Are the questions posed neutrally phrased, or do they deliberately or otherwise point their respondents in a particular direction?</p></li>
<li><p>Would the government of the day be bound by the result of a referendum, or would it be advisory?</p></li>
<li><p>Would a government accept a result endorsed by a 50.1% majority,
or would it require a “special majority”, of say 55%, to pass?</p></li>
<li><p>What rules would have to be followed during a campaign, and how would the media be required to conduct themselves? </p></li>
<li><p>What sanctions would be imposed to limit the subversion of the campaign by lies by both sides of the electoral debate? </p></li>
<li><p>Would there be any rule outlawing a repeat of the referendum within any given period of time?</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Without careful regulation, a referendum can be predisposed to securing a particular answer. Yet it is ostensibly designed to deepen democracy, not to subvert it.</p>
<h2>Proportionality</h2>
<p>Electoral systems can be highly complex. The great virtue of South Africa’s proportional representation <a href="https://hsf.org.za/publications/hsf-briefs/the-south-african-electoral-system">electoral system</a> is that it is simple. The voter has two votes, one for national level, one for provincial level. These votes contribute to the proportionate vote of the chosen party.</p>
<p>It is rather more difficult to explain to voters how <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/272466990_The_Case_of_Lesotho's_Mixed_Member_Proportional_System">mixed member systems</a> ensure proportionality of party representation. These systems combine <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/0/first-past-the-post-voting-explained/">first-past-the-post</a> constituency elections with proportional representation. </p>
<p>This poses the issue of how members of parliament who are elected by constituencies would be balanced by those elected by <a href="https://www.eisa.org/wep/sou3.htm">proportional representation</a> to ensure an election result which, as the <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/legislation/constitution/saconstitution-web-eng.pdf">constitution</a> requires, is overall, proportional. In other words, what proportion of MPs would be elected by constituencies as against those elected by proportional representation?</p>
<p>These complexities and other considerations suggest a way forward if much-needed electoral reform, beyond that presently ordered by the Constitutional Court, is to be achieved in South Africa.</p>
<p>The first step must be for the ANC to be pushed well below 50% in the <a href="https://www.eisa.org/wep/southafrica.htm">2024 election</a>. Turkeys do not vote for Christmas. The ANC is unlikely to hold a referendum which might lead to far-reaching electoral reform.</p>
<p>It is unlikely that the ANC will vote for radical electoral reform unless it is hard pushed to do so. It is at present working hard to <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-is-in-search-of-a-fairer-electoral-system-but-whats-been-tabled-is-flawed-184277">minimise the impact</a> of allowing independent candidates to stand in elections, as required by a ruling of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/constitutional-court-ruling-heralds-changes-to-south-africas-electoral-system-140668">Constitutional Court</a>.</p>
<p>Second, there needs to be a binding commitment by opposition parties to electoral reform and how to bring it about. Presuming that the ANC receives <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2022/05/20/jeff-radebe-warns-anc-could-get-below-50-of-votes-at-2024-national-elections">well below 50%</a> in the 2024 election, this commitment must be a condition of any coalition agreement formed between political parties forming a government.</p>
<p>Third, there should be a repeat of the 2003 <a href="https://static.pmg.org.za/docs/Van-Zyl-Slabbert-Commission-on-Electoral-Reform-Report-2003.pdf">Van Zyl Slabbert Commission</a> to consider electoral alternatives. Such a commission should be composed in such a way to earn the trust of both politicians and voters.</p>
<p>Its deliberations need not take much time, as the commission has already discussed the fundamental principles involved. It also ran a survey which – rather than asking respondents directly what electoral system they favoured – asked them what values they wanted an electoral system to express, values like fairness, equality and accountability.</p>
<p>Fourth, the recommendations of such a commission would need to be
accepted and implemented by parliament. This is where any coalition
agreement should kick in. Perhaps such a coalition agreement might
require that, in the event of a serious disagreement about electoral reform, the matter should be referred to the Constitutional Court.</p>
<h2>What issues should the people decide?</h2>
<p>This leaves open the issue of whether, following the approval or
defeat of a bill to implement electoral reform, the outcome should be
referred to the electorate in a referendum.</p>
<p>It needs to be clear as to why, if parliament has made a decision, the
matter should be referred to a referendum. Perhaps it should. Perhaps this would be a way of making South Africa’s democracy more direct, and its politicians more accountable.</p>
<p>But if the form of an electoral system can be referred to the electorate in a referendum, why not capital punishment? And why not abortion? Or LGBTIQ rights? </p>
<p>Care is needed. A referendum may well have a place in the country’s
democracy, but beware – it may release a host of problems.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186478/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Southall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Referenda may well have a place in the country’s democracy, but if the form of an electoral system can be referred to a referendum, why not capital punishment, abortion or LGBT rights?Roger Southall, Professor of Sociology, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1842602022-06-09T13:55:02Z2022-06-09T13:55:02ZWhat Lesotho can teach Eswatini and South Africa about key political reforms<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466793/original/file-20220602-22-zj686t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Basotho men wearing the traditional blankets during the annual horse race held on the king's birthday. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA/Kim Ludbrook</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Two southern African countries, South Africa and Eswatini, are undergoing important reforms. South Africa is reviewing its <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-is-ripe-for-electoral-reform-why-its-time-might-have-come-157149">electoral system</a> while Eswatini is revisiting the powers of the monarch through a <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-11-15-the-king-is-still-bent-on-determining-the-tone-and-character-of-national-dialogue-in-eswatini/">national dialogue</a>. </p>
<p>South Africa and Eswatini can look to Lesotho for lessons. It’s a fellow member of the <a href="https://www.sadc.int/member-states/">Southern African Development Community</a> and has grappled with these issues for decades. The three countries share geographic, historical and economic ties. </p>
<p>The kingdom of Lesotho returned to electoral politics in 1993, after a long haul of <a href="https://www.eisa.org/wep/lesoverview6.htm">dictatorship capped by a military junta</a>. Since then, it has experienced <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10246029.1998.9627833?journalCode=rasr20">mutinies</a>, <a href="https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/ASPJ_French/journals_E/Volume-08_Issue-3/benyera_e.pdf">coups</a> and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02589001.2020.1749246">electoral violence</a>. </p>
<p>The advent of tumultuous <a href="https://issafrica.org/iss-today/lesotho-after-may-2012-general-elections-making-the-coalition-work">coalition politics in 2012</a> laid bare the longstanding problems associated with the prime minister’s excessive powers. He compromised the security forces, the judiciary, civil service and even parliament, thereby <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00083968.2020.1834418">fuelling instability</a>.</p>
<p>The Southern African Development Community has intervened in Lesotho in <a href="https://www.eisa.org/pdf/JAE14.2Weisfelder.pdf">almost every electoral cycle</a>. Its interventions have ranged from diplomatic to <a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/abs/10.10520/EJC16147">military</a>. The country is now effectively under the trusteeship of the regional bloc as it sails through a turbulent reform programme. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, there are certain aspects that Lesotho has handled quite well. Its successes offer lessons for other states that are undergoing reforms in similar areas. </p>
<p>First, it has made its electoral system more inclusive. Second, it has curbed the powers of the monarch in a constitutional democracy. </p>
<h2>South Africa’s electoral system</h2>
<p>South Africa faces a critical period in its electoral history. The country is <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.za/bill/2300397">reviewing its electoral system</a> in the light of a debate that has raged since pre-constitution negotiations in the 1990s. The <a href="https://eisa.org/pdf/JAE2.1.pdf#page=76">contest</a> is between the proponents of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/proportional-representation">proportional representation</a>, and those favouring a <a href="https://www.etu.org.za/toolbox/docs/govern/elections.html">constituency-based</a> electoral system.</p>
<p>Under proportional representation, candidates contest elections as party candidates – not as individuals. In parliament, the <a href="https://www.ajol.info/index.php/ajcr/article/view/39377/30302">representatives occupy proportional seats allocated to parties</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.etu.org.za/toolbox/docs/govern/elections.html">constituency-based electoral system</a> divides a country into relatively equal territorial units called constituencies. The system is often credited with <a href="https://www.eisa.org/pdf/faure.pdf">increased accountability</a> to the voters by their representatives. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/constitutional-court-ruling-heralds-changes-to-south-africas-electoral-system-140668">Constitutional Court ruling heralds changes to South Africa's electoral system</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>South Africa’s <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/legislation/constitution/saconstitution-web-eng.pdf">constitution</a> envisages an electoral system “that results, in general, in proportional representation”. The country has used this system for national and provincial elections since 1994.</p>
<p>But arguments over it have never been settled. Occasionally, the Constitutional Court is asked to intervene. </p>
<p>Its first major intervention was in 2002. The court had to decide whether floor-crossing – MPs switching parties – was in keeping with a proportional representation system. It found that floor-crossing at national, provincial and local government levels was <a href="http://www.saflii.org/za/cases/ZACC/2002/33media.pdf">consistent with the constitution</a>. </p>
<p>The second time was in 2020. Independent candidates had not been seen as having a place in an electoral system based on proportional representation of political parties. Then the court was asked to decide whether excluding independent candidates from contesting national and provincial elections <a href="https://theconversation.com/constitutional-court-ruling-heralds-changes-to-south-africas-electoral-system-140668">was constitutional</a>. </p>
<p>It decided that <a href="http://www.saflii.org/za/cases/ZACC/2020/11.html">excluding independents was unconstitutional</a>. This partly invalidated the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201409/act73of1998.pdf">1998 Electoral Act</a>. The decision triggered a <a href="https://theconversation.com/constitutional-court-ruling-heralds-changes-to-south-africas-electoral-system-140668">search for an electoral system</a> that would allow independents to stand for election in an essentially proportional electoral system.</p>
<p>Lesotho grappled with the same questions following its <a href="http://journals.ufs.ac.za/index.php/jch/article/download/4110/3694">controversial 1998 elections</a>. In 2001, it adopted a <a href="https://www.academia.edu/download/72989383/j.electstud.2003.12.00520211017-17059-u63y2z.pdf">“mixed member proportional”</a> system, the <a href="https://aceproject.org/ace-en/topics/es/annex/esy/esy_ls">first country in Africa</a> to do so. </p>
<p>It remains a species of proportional electoral system, but permits individuals to stand in constituencies, either as independents or sponsored by political parties. As a result, some MPs are elected as constituency representatives, others as proportional representatives of political parties. The system has performed relatively well. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://lesotholii.org/ls/legislation/act/2001/4/ls_amend_4th_2001_og.pdf">fourth amendment to the constitution of Lesotho</a> of 2001 can come in handy for the conversation <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.za/storage/app/media/Bills/2022/B1_2022_Electoral_Amendment_Bill/B1_2022_Electoral_Amendment_Bill.pdf">under way in the South African parliament</a> regarding electoral reform. </p>
<p>The lesson is that independent candidates can be allowed to stand for elections in a system that results, by and large, in proportional representation as required by section 46 of the <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/legislation/constitution/saconstitution-web-eng.pdf">constitution</a>. </p>
<h2>Eswatini’s monarchy</h2>
<p>The most recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-lies-behind-uprisings-in-eswatini-the-unfinished-business-of-democratic-reform-171844">wave of discontent</a> in Eswatini reignited calls to reduce the powers of the only remaining absolute monarch in Africa. The king’s place in Eswatini’s democracy has been an issue since <a href="https://lib.ugent.be/catalog/ebk01:4100000009375057">independence from Britain in 1968</a>. At independence, the <a href="https://oxcon.ouplaw.com/view/10.1093/law:ocw/law-ocw-cd19.regGroup.1/law-ocw-cd19#law-ocw-cd19-miscMatter-1">constitution</a> provided for a constitutional monarch along the lines of Lesotho’s. </p>
<p>The independence constitutions of both countries were cast in <a href="https://academic.oup.com/pa/article-abstract/36/2/218/1532256">classical Westminster moulds</a>. But, hardly five years into independence, in 1973, <a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/national-orders/recipient/king-sobhuza-ii-1899-1982">King Sobhuza II</a> of Swaziland (now Eswatini) suspended the constitution and claimed <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10246029.2003.9627233?journalCode=rasr20">absolute powers</a>. This is still the position despite the new <a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/abs/10.10520/EJC53235">constitution of 2005</a>. The king has unlimited executive powers and political parties are prohibited. </p>
<p>Discontent over the king’s powers has been growing. There is now agreement in Eswatini that there must be <a href="https://www.google.co.za/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjhmqL4j474AhULXsAKHbSUAHsQwqsBegQIAhAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D1M9EAOyMJgA&usg=AOvVaw3rKTXbS1bmmWTJG_24fKfW">candid dialogue</a> about the king’s powers, and greater democratisation. The <a href="https://www.sadc.int/news-events/news/statement-chairperson-sadc-organ-politics-defence-and-security-cooperation-his-excellency-matamela-cyril-ramaphosa-president-rep/">Southern African Development Community</a> is facilitating the dialogue. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-monarch-in-lesotho-should-be-given-some-powers-but-not-extreme-powers-165914">The monarch in Lesotho should be given some powers: but not extreme powers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Lesotho has been grappling with the question of the king’s powers since pre-independence negotiations. Temptations to have an executive monarch have occasionally thrown the country into <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-monarch-in-lesotho-should-be-given-some-powers-but-not-extreme-powers-165914">turmoil</a>. But it is now generally accepted that executive powers must vest in the democratically elected prime minister. The monarchy is <a href="http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2225-71602020000100011">ceremonial</a>.</p>
<p>Politicians have run Lesotho into many constitutional problems, but at least voters can replace them periodically. The monarch is cherished but within a democratic system based on multi-partyism. The people of Eswatini do not have this under an absolute monarchy.</p>
<p>The usual tendency to look to Europe and elsewhere to solve problems in Africa is not always helpful. This may be an opportune moment to find <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26890401?casa_token=18Uxn8Ll5WIAAAAA:xmqDg7YoIPrBXRUs1JN-wscLp124zhjdaZdAW3oE1nnHXHO5mTbuwu7qsjNm0mV_L3QJpUF9VCpCL9ER9Ge8DkgWWqPEBH8GYF_HAQJIEVkKxYVejjs9">African solutions to African problems</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184260/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hoolo 'Nyane does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Lesotho has done a good job of curbing the powers of its monarch and making its electoral system inclusive.Hoolo 'Nyane, Head of Department, Public and Environmental Law Department, University of LimpopoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1842772022-06-08T13:56:49Z2022-06-08T13:56:49ZSouth Africa is in search of a fairer electoral system. But what’s been tabled is flawed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466954/original/file-20220603-15-ajvadi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A woman votes in South Africa's November 2021 local elections. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA/Kim Ludbrook</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa is amending its electoral law to make it fairer by enabling citizens to contest provincial and national elections without being forced to join political parties. </p>
<p>The follows a 2020 Constitutional Court <a href="http://www.saflii.org/za/cases/ZACC/2020/11.html">judgment</a> that found that excluding citizens from being elected as independent individuals was unconstitutional. The court gave parliament 24 months to amend the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201409/act73of1998.pdf">1998 Electoral Act</a> accordingly.</p>
<p>South Africa’s <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/legislation/constitution/saconstitution-web-eng.pdf">constitution</a> prescribes an electoral system “that results, in general, in proportional representation”. The country has used this system for national and provincial elections since 1994.</p>
<p>But, in 2020, the New Nation Movement, a civil society body, <a href="https://theconversation.com/constitutional-court-ruling-heralds-changes-to-south-africas-electoral-system-140668">challenged the electoral system</a> for unfairly excluding independent candidates. In their view, the act made it impossible for voters to have a direct link to national and provincial representatives who can be directly accountable to them. </p>
<p>A new <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.za/bill/2300397">Electoral Amendment Bill</a> has been tabled before parliament. It allows for two categories of individual candidates: those who run purely as independents as well as those nominated by political parties. </p>
<p>The proposed new system is similar to the country’s local government electoral system. Under this system an equal number of proportional party representatives and individual ward councillors are elected. It is also similar to Lesotho’s <a href="https://www.ajol.info/index.php/ai/article/view/51012">mixed member proportional system</a>. This combines individually elected parliamentarians with proportionally elected party members.</p>
<p>In my view this arrangement would undermine the intention of the court judgement.</p>
<p>Firstly, they won’t meet the requirements of making the electoral system more responsive to local voters because party nominated candidates, who will still be able to run, will have an unfair advantage over independents. And, as the current system clearly shows, candidates who are part of party lists aren’t directly accountable to the electorate.</p>
<h2>Flaws</h2>
<p>There are flaws in the bill related to broader rights as set out in the constitution.</p>
<p>One relates to the right to belong to a political party. </p>
<p>The constitution guarantees every citizen the right to be a member of a party. But clause 31B(3)(f) in the <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.za/bill/2300397">bill</a> determines that one of the requirements for an independent candidate is that they should not have been a member of a political party for at least three months before their nomination date. This seemingly violates section 19(1)(b) of the constitution, which guarantees the right for everyone</p>
<blockquote>
<p>to participate in the activities of … a political party. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The right to be a member of a party can’t be denied, even temporarily.</p>
<p>The phrasing of this clause in the bill seems to be missing the point. From the public’s point of view, the emphasis is very much on seeking alternatives to candidates who are the products of internal party nomination processes. The minimum requirements for such an independent should, therefore, be that a candidate is not nominated by a party, and their nomination and campaign are not funded by a party. </p>
<p>Membership of a party – or any other organisation – cannot be restricted by legislation.</p>
<p>Another area of concern is what impact independent representatives will have on the proportional representation in the National Assembly and provincial legislatures. </p>
<p>Section 19 of the constitution has to be read together with section 46(1)(d), which states that the electoral system must “result, in general, in proportional representation”. It implies that the overall effect of the electoral system (allocation of seats) has to be proportional in terms of the votes received by all the parties. </p>
<p>The question, therefore, is what the impact of independent representatives on this proportionality is. </p>
<p>The proposed electoral system will meet this constitutional requirement only if the number of independent representatives among the 200 regional seat representatives is as low as possible, and the number of party-nominated individual representatives as high as possible. The table below shows how the level or percentage of proportionality declines in direct correlation to an increase in the number of independents. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466771/original/file-20220602-14-5fljzj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466771/original/file-20220602-14-5fljzj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=119&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466771/original/file-20220602-14-5fljzj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=119&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466771/original/file-20220602-14-5fljzj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=119&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466771/original/file-20220602-14-5fljzj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=149&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466771/original/file-20220602-14-5fljzj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=149&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466771/original/file-20220602-14-5fljzj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=149&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dirk Kotze</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It means that if all 200 regional seat representatives are independents, then the level of proportionality in the National Assembly will only be 50%. </p>
<p>The bill allows for what it calls compensatory seat representatives. These are designed to compensate for the difference that might exist between the number of individual seats a party gets and its proportion of the total votes in the election. </p>
<p>But the concept only has limited use. Only the PR compensatory seats plus each party’s regional seats will contribute to the proportionality of parties. It does not include the independents amongst the regional seats.</p>
<p>This will certainly not meet the minimum constitutional requirement of proportionality. </p>
<p>It is inconceivable that such a constitutional threshold could be lower than 75%, and therefore more than 100 independents. The implication is that allocating 50% of the National Assembly seats to the regional seats category is too high. </p>
<p>There is a solution: The 50/50% allocation should be reconsidered in favour of the proportional representation “compensatory” seats to meet the general PR requirement. </p>
<p>Another flaw in the bill is the system proposed when it comes to provincial lists. As currently set out, this has a built-in bias in favour of party-nominated individual candidates who can rely on their party’s financing and campaign infrastructure. </p>
<p>Here’s why.</p>
<p>The National Assembly is currently made up of 400 members – 200 from national lists and the other 200 from provincial proportional representation lists. The bill proposes replacing current provincial lists with regional seat members.</p>
<p>The implication of this approach is that South Africa will be demarcated into nine huge National Assembly constituencies (which are identical to the provinces). In contrast, most of the proposals made recently to the <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/ministerial-advisory-committee-electoral-system-hosts-first-consultative-meeting-24-mar">Ministerial Advisory Panel on the Electoral System</a>, and by the <a href="https://static.pmg.org.za/docs/Van-Zyl-Slabbert-Commission-on-Electoral-Reform-Report-2003.pdf">Van Zyl Slabbert Task Team</a> on electoral reform in 2003, included more constituencies. </p>
<p>Using such large constituencies will make it very difficult for both categories of regional seat candidates to campaign effectively. They’re unlikely to have enough financial and other resources. </p>
<p>There’s another argument to be made against large constituencies – or, as the bill envisages, multi-member constituencies. </p>
<p>The whole idea behind independent candidates is the hope that their inclusion might improve the accountability of parliamentarians to the voters. And make them more accessible to the public.</p>
<p>But large constituencies cannot meet these expectations. If that was indeed possible, then the current provincial legislatures would have done it already. </p>
<p>A second implication of the envisaged multi-member constituencies is that their representatives will come from different parties and some may be independents. If a voter wants to approach a public representative with a problem, to whom will they go? Who’ll take responsibility for that issue and who’ll accountable for it?</p>
<h2>Radical changes, but not enough</h2>
<p>This amendment proposes radical changes in the electoral system, but whether it meets the main expectations of the Constitutional Court, is unlikely. The public will still not gain direct access to public representatives, who can individually be accountable for parliamentary decisions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184277/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dirk Kotze does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The whole idea behind independent candidates is the hope that their inclusion might improve the accountability of parliamentarians to the voters. The bill doesn’t do that.Dirk Kotze, Professor in Political Science, University of South AfricaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1777372022-05-17T07:06:07Z2022-05-17T07:06:07ZHow does Australia’s voting system work?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454049/original/file-20220324-25-t51gxp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5586%2C3721&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As you head to your local polling place this Saturday, or cast your ballot in an early vote, it’s worth pondering: how does Australia’s voting system really work, anyway?</p>
<p>The fundamentals of our electoral system have been shaped by democratic values enshrined in Australia’s Constitution and pragmatic decisions made by federal politicians since 1901.</p>
<p>I’ve been studying elections and electoral systems for some 65 years.</p>
<p>Here’s what you need to know to understand how the vote you cast this election fits into the bigger picture.</p>
<h2>How long are politicians’ terms?</h2>
<p>For members of the House of Representatives – three years.</p>
<p>Section 28 of the Constitution says:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first meeting of the House, and no longer, but may be sooner dissolved by the Governor-General.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Since the prime minister advises the governor general, it means he or she makes the exact choice of date. Many people object to that, but I don’t. That power hasn’t been abused.</p>
<p>The now dissolved term (the 46th Parliament) was elected in May 2019, so it has run a full term.</p>
<h2>Why do we have more seats in the House than the Senate?</h2>
<p>The Constitution says there must be approximately double the number of seats in the House compared to the Senate.</p>
<p>Section 24 says: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The House of Representatives shall be composed of members directly chosen by the people of the Commonwealth, and the number of such members shall be, as nearly as practicable, twice the number of the senators.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The September 1946 election saw 74 members of the House of Representatives elected to the 18th Parliament (1946-49). There were 36 senators then, six from each of the six states.</p>
<p>Since 1984 there have been 76 senators, 12 from each state and two from each territory.</p>
<p>There are currently 151 seats in the House, which therefore meets the requirement “as nearly as practicable twice the number” of senators.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1513302215603146759"}"></div></p>
<h2>How are electoral boundaries drawn?</h2>
<p>Electoral boundaries are drawn so there are similar numbers of voters in each seat.</p>
<p>Section 24 of the Constitution reads:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The number of members chosen in the several States shall be in proportion to the respective numbers of their people…</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The number of 151 electorates was determined mid-way during the 45th Parliament (2016-19). In August 2017 the electoral commissioner, Tom Rogers, issued the latest population statistics and determined there should be 47 members from New South Wales, 38 Victoria, 30 Queensland, 16 Western Australia, 10 South Australia, five Tasmania, three ACT and two for the Northern Territory.</p>
<p>Where necessary, electoral boundaries are re-drawn according to the principle of “one vote, one value” or, as I prefer to say, equal representation for equal numbers of people.</p>
<p>In July 2020, Rogers acknowledged population growth was above average in Victoria and below average in Western Australia.</p>
<p>That is why the forthcoming election will see 39 members elected in Victoria (up one) and 15 in WA (down one). New boundaries will apply in those two states and the redistributions have been done fairly and with maximum transparency, as always. </p>
<p>Elsewhere the boundaries will be the same as in May 2019.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-do-seat-redistributions-work-53488">Explainer: how do seat redistributions work?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How are Senators elected?</h2>
<p>Since 1949 the system has been one of proportional representation.</p>
<p>That means within each state six Senate seats are roughly distributed according to a party’s share of the vote. So a party getting about 12% of the vote would win one seat, about 26% two seats, about 40% three seats and so on.</p>
<p>This is why the Greens do so well at Senate elections compared to the House of Representatives. With about 10% of the vote for both houses, they presently have nine senators but only one member of the House of Representatives.</p>
<p>This differs from preferential voting for the House of Representatives, introduced in 1918, where voters number candidates in the order of their preferences – first choice, second choice and so on.</p>
<h2>How long are senators’ terms?</h2>
<p>Senators from the states serve six year terms, and those from the territories serve three year terms.</p>
<p>However, a system of rotation means half the senators’ terms end every three years. So in most elections, half the Senate spots are contested.</p>
<p>But there’s an exception to this rule. Every so often there’s a “double dissolution”, where the entire Senate is elected. That happened most recently in 2016. This parliament was dissolved early because there was a dispute between the two houses, so the entire parliament faced the people.</p>
<p>In a double dissolution, half the senators from the states get three year terms instead of six. This is based on the number of votes.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1523824655072899072"}"></div></p>
<p>One Nation’s Pauline Hanson and Larissa Waters of the Greens are good examples of how it works.</p>
<p>Both were elected among the 12 Queenslanders at the 2016 election. However, Hanson was one of the six more popular vote winners, and Waters one of the six less popular vote winners. So, Hanson got a six-year term and Waters a three-year term.</p>
<p>Waters won a higher proportion of votes in the 2019 election, so was elected to a six-year term, expiring on June 30 2025. </p>
<p>Hanson is up for re-election this year, and I predict she will be elected to a six-year term, and therefore her term would expire on 30 June 2028.</p>
<h2>Issues with our voting system</h2>
<p>About 16.5 million votes will be cast for each house of parliament.</p>
<p>Based on the last two federal elections, I estimate the informal vote will be roughly 800,000 for the House of Representatives (4.9%) and 650,000 for the Senate (3.9%).</p>
<p>By world standards that’s a high number of informal votes, which is thought by many to be a blot on our democracy.</p>
<p>Two reasons for this are because we have compulsory voting, and because ballot papers are unnecessarily complex and voter unfriendly, particularly for the Senate.</p>
<p>The United Kingdom, Ireland, Canada and New Zealand have voluntary voting and simple one-house ballot papers, and the rate of informal voting is negligible. Some argue we should copy them.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-australians-sick-of-the-election-this-is-why-voting-is-not-a-waste-of-your-time-182661">To Australians sick of the election: this is why voting is not a waste of your time</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>There’s also a lack of rules around campaign finance – the stand-out case being the <a href="https://theconversation.com/clive-palmer-his-money-and-his-billboards-are-back-what-does-this-mean-for-the-2022-federal-election-182123">obscene spending</a> by Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.</p>
<p>I argue there’s no need to reform the Constitution and the democratic values it upholds. But there should be legislative changes to improve the system. I expect some democratic reforms during the next term, 2022-25, the 47th Parliament.</p>
<p>These changes wouldn’t require a referendum, just negotiation to ensure passage through both houses. By contrast, changes to the Constitution require a referendum. For that reason reforms by referendum are rare.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177737/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Malcolm Mackerras does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An election expert breaks down the big questions.Malcolm Mackerras, Distinguished Fellow, PM Glynn Institute, Australian Catholic UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1781202022-03-06T12:15:10Z2022-03-06T12:15:10ZThe ‘freedom convoy’ protests point to a bigger problem with Canada’s democracy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450100/original/file-20220304-21-12nw4y4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C0%2C5153%2C3381&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There are indications that more and more Canadians feel the federal government doesn't represent their views. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The “freedom convoy” protests across the country revealed that many Canadians are angry at government and have a growing distrust of some democratic institutions. Even though the protesters’ actions may not represent how a majority of Canadians feel about vaccine mandates, there’s reason to believe their negative views about government are not unique.</p>
<p><a href="https://angusreid.org/canada-politics-government-division-disengagement/">A recent poll by the Angus Reid Institute</a> asked respondents if Canada could be accurately described as having a “good system of government” — 45 per cent said it could not. The poll also found no region of the country had a majority of residents who felt the federal government cared about issues important to them.</p>
<p>None of this is surprising in a country where <a href="https://centre.irpp.org/research-studies/the-persistence-of-western-alienation/">Western alienation is still a concern</a> and <a href="https://ipolitics.ca/2021/03/24/federal-carbon-pricing-not-a-swing-issue-for-voters-mainstreet-poll/?doing_wp_cron=1646351983.7357358932495117187500">opinions are divided on federal government actions to battle climate change</a>.</p>
<p>A common refrain from politicians is that Canada is a democracy where everyone is entitled to vote, so if you don’t like what the government is doing, then you can vote it out of office. Implicit in that response is that everyone enjoys an equal opportunity to determine who forms government. But the refrain is also at odds with our current democratic process.</p>
<p>For quite some time, what’s united a majority of Canadians is that they don’t like the vision of the government in power, no matter what their political colours are. What’s needed to release tensions of growing divisions is a recalibration of our basic democratic institution.</p>
<p>Canada has had 12 elections since 1984, when the Progressive Conservatives under Brian Mulroney were the last party to enjoy the support of a majority of voters.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449320/original/file-20220301-15-170268v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449320/original/file-20220301-15-170268v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449320/original/file-20220301-15-170268v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449320/original/file-20220301-15-170268v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449320/original/file-20220301-15-170268v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449320/original/file-20220301-15-170268v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449320/original/file-20220301-15-170268v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449320/original/file-20220301-15-170268v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Results of federal election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.sfu.ca/%7Eaheard/elections/1867-present.html">In all 11 elections since 1984, a majority of Canadians</a> — most times in excess of 60 per cent — have not supported the government in power. What voters can’t agree upon is whose vision they prefer.</p>
<p>These figures have not been lost on the country’s political leaders. They have given up on seeking a true majority of voters and have designed their policies — often in very cynical fashion, such <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-transit-fund-1.5908346">as transport subsidies for urban voters</a> or <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/federal-election-2021/look-to-conservative-platform-to-fill-in-the-blanks-on-gun-policy-o-toole-1.5573803">gun law freedoms for rural voters</a> — to appeal only to what they consider their electoral base, believing this base can give them a shot at forming government.</p>
<p>Conservative leadership candidate <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poilievre-conservative-otoole-convoy-vaccine-mandate-1.6335286">Pierre Poilievre’s support of the “freedom convoy”</a> is the latest example of the “appeal to your base” strategy. It’s not the number of people you can attract to your party. It’s more important to focus on which electorate voters reside in.</p>
<p>For example, I live in the electoral riding of Windsor West. Herb Gray held the riding for the Liberal party from 1962 to 2002 — sometimes with 73 per cent of the popular vote, but most times around the 55 per cent mark. <a href="https://www.elections.ca/res/rep/off/ovr_part2_e.pdf">In a 2002 byelection</a>, Brian Masse was elected for the NDP with 42 per cent and <a href="https://windsorstar.com/news/local-news/windsor-west-race-too-close-to-call">he still represents the riding</a>. In my riding, if you are a Conservative or Green voter, you may as well stay at home. </p>
<p>In the 12 federal elections held over the last 37 years, five resulted in minority governments. Obviously, we are not experiencing the electoral stability that supporters of <a href="https://www.samaracanada.com/samara-in-the-classroom/electoral-reform/first-past-the-post/">first-past-the-post system</a> have always argued as a strength of the current electoral process. </p>
<p>How then do we recalibrate our basic democratic system to ensure that everyone’s vote counts, that political leaders are incentivized to court every voter and construct policy aligned with that goal, and to ensure those who feel alienated are heard?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450101/original/file-20220304-21-7s65k8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450101/original/file-20220304-21-7s65k8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450101/original/file-20220304-21-7s65k8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450101/original/file-20220304-21-7s65k8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450101/original/file-20220304-21-7s65k8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450101/original/file-20220304-21-7s65k8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450101/original/file-20220304-21-7s65k8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A truck taking part in the ‘freedom convoy’ protests in Ottawa displays a sign calling for Conservative MP Pierre Poilievre to become Prime Minister. Poilievre was quick to offer his support to those opposed to vaccine mandates.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The answer lies in moving to some form of proportional representational electoral system. This idea is not new, but now more than ever it is necessary to revitalize our democracy and provide a pathway for unity.</p>
<p>Among those alternative systems, <a href="https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/what-is-new-zealands-system-of-government/what-is-mmp/">New Zealand’s Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) system</a> has many advantages.</p>
<p>Canadians can’t leave electoral reform to mainstream politicians — <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-electoral-reform-proportional-representation-1.5225616">and the current Liberal government has already reneged on a promise to eliminate the first-past-the-post system</a>. New Zealand’s system would require changes to be suitable for Canada, but some form of proportional representation is the best way to ensure that every vote counts and that we do truly get the government we deserve. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The Parliament buildings stand in the central business district of Wellington, New Zealand" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450103/original/file-20220304-25-96hau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450103/original/file-20220304-25-96hau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450103/original/file-20220304-25-96hau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450103/original/file-20220304-25-96hau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450103/original/file-20220304-25-96hau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450103/original/file-20220304-25-96hau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450103/original/file-20220304-25-96hau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Parliament in New Zealand is represented by a more diverse group since that country reformed its first-past-the-post electoral system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo /Nick Perry)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In New Zealand, everyone has two votes — one for the candidate to represent their riding and one for the party of their choice. Riding candidates are elected on the basis of first past the post, but the composition of the parliament is also based on the popular vote share across the country. So if a party gets 35 per cent of the popular vote, but holds only 25 per cent of the seats in parliament, it’s allotted extra seats that are drawn from a list of candidates put forward by their party.</p>
<p>There are currently 75 electorate members and 45 list members in New Zealand. These lists have widened the diversity of candidates, providing an additional strength to a representative democracy. <a href="https://socialreport.msd.govt.nz/civil-and-political-rights/representation-of-ethnic-groups-in-government.html">Maori MPs in New Zealand have increased to 20 per cent from five per cent</a> (Maori make up 15 per cent of the population) and Pacific Islanders (seven per cent of the population) to seven per cent from one per cent. Gender parity has largely been obtained (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/16/asia/new-zealand-parliament-diverse-intl-hnk-dst/index.html">48 per cent of MPs are women and 11 per cent are from the LGBTQ+ community</a>). </p>
<p>In practice, <a href="https://archive.electionresults.govt.nz">New Zealand’s proportional system has resulted in several forms of government</a>. There have been true minority governments where a party has gained only 42 per cent of the popular vote and has held government with 45 per cent of the seats. There have been true majority governments — the <a href="https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2020/">current one elected in 2020 being one of them</a>.</p>
<p>But more often, there have been <a href="https://www.parliament.nz/en/visit-and-learn/mps-and-parliaments-1854-onwards/governments-in-new-zealand-since-1856/">true coalition governments</a> where parties have agreed on particular policy items, including holding ministerial portfolios, signed an accord and have governed accordingly. Their legitimacy comes from the fact that in coalition they represent a true majority of the voters. </p>
<p>Most New Zealand voters use their two votes for the same party but <a href="https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/26-10-2017/the-tick-splitters-how-new-zealanders-used-their-two-votes-a-visualisation">vote-splitting</a> does occur.</p>
<p>If this system was brought to Canada, I might want to vote NDP for my riding MP, but give more say to the Green party because I believe strongly in climate change and that’s where I would give my party vote. For a Conservative voter in Windsor West, under a proportional voting system, their party vote has the same value as everyone else in the country. That would dissuade parties from only appealing to their “base” with policies that alienate the majority of the electorate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178120/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeff Berryman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The wave of protests across Canada against vaccine mandates are signs of growing tensions that the federal government doesn’t represent the views of many people. It’s time for election reform.Jeff Berryman, Distinguished University Professor and Professor of Law, University of WindsorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1771472022-02-18T01:13:06Z2022-02-18T01:13:06ZStronger laws on ‘foreign’ election influence were rushed through this week – limiting speech but ignoring our billionaire problem<p>In case you missed it, election season is upon us again. Like the elongated summers caused by climate change, campaigning is intensifying and being spread over longer periods every election.</p>
<p>Although polling day is not due until May, this year’s campaign kicked off nine months out with billionaire Clive Palmer’s plunge into <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/craig-kelly-uap-clive-palmer-text-message-sms/13524840">spam texts</a>, and big spending on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/20/united-australia-party-spent-12m-on-youtube-ads-in-two-months-since-craig-kelly-named-leader">YouTube ads</a> and billboards. </p>
<p>Campaigning may be well under way, but the rules governing the election are still being finessed. Some of this is administrative and technological, such as <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/election/covid19-safety-measures.htm">tweaks</a> to ensure COVID-safe voting at polling places.</p>
<p>However, in the past week, a more substantial campaigning bill sailed through parliament. Its title, the <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22legislation%2Fems%2Fs1333_ems_a1508208-9a73-4ad8-9040-c8a3e4eaaa9d%22">Electoral Amendment (Foreign Influences and Offences) Bill 2022</a>, is clunky, but suggestive.</p>
<p>The bill creates several new offences, limiting “foreign” persons or entities from fundraising for or directly spending on electioneering – or even authorising electoral matter – to influence a Commonwealth election.</p>
<p>This new law has received minimal attention. Aside from a <a href="https://thewest.com.au/opinion/ben-morton-we-must-be-vigilant-to-protect-our-democracy-from-foreign-interference-c-5646350">commentary piece</a> by a Liberal MP, there’s been scant reporting or analysis.</p>
<p>Instead, it has been subsumed by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/14/afp-on-alert-for-domestic-protests-disinformation-and-foreign-interference-as-election-looms">concerns</a> over foreign interference or disinformation campaigns in the upcoming federal election. These concerns were amplified by <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/spy-chief-sounds-warning-on-election-interference-20220209-p59uym">revelations</a> about alleged Chinese attempts to inject funding into the Australian political system.</p>
<p>The Morrison government has sought to leverage the heightened tensions by <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/peter-dutton-says-china-has-decided-to-back-labor-at-the-election/news-story/2f8fbd482da508bf7b1155b8ffb4cf8c">claiming</a> “Beijing backs Labor”. In response, the head of ASIO <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-16/prime-minister-labels-labor-mp-manchurian-candidate/100837380">warned</a> against politicising the issue. Any risk of inappropriate overseas influence in the election affects all sides.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1492048529417969664"}"></div></p>
<h2>What the new law will do</h2>
<p>The new “foreign influences” bill was hurried through the Senate at the end of last week, then passed the House on Wednesday. Unlike almost all electoral reforms, it was not subject to committee, let alone public, scrutiny. </p>
<p>This suggests both major parties are genuinely concerned about beefing up the law or at least sending a strong signal against overseas assistance to Australian parties, candidates or electoral lobby groups that may hope to benefit from it. </p>
<p>The bill builds on <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/Parties_and_Representatives/financial_disclosure/files/foreign-donations-fact-sheet.pdf">existing offences</a> against “foreign” donations to parties, MPs or electoral lobby groups in Australia, which were enacted after long debate in 2018. These already cover gifts on behalf of a “foreign” donor to candidates – the <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/prominent-chinese-businessman-named-in-parliament-as-puppeteer-20220215-p59whd">alleged scheme</a> recently involving Chinese money and potential Labor candidates. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-governments-foreign-donations-bill-is-flawed-and-needs-to-be-redrafted-92586">Federal government's foreign donations bill is flawed and needs to be redrafted</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>“Foreign” is a slippery concept, and not easy to define. This is a reason why the bill needed more debate – and may be partly unconstitutional.</p>
<p>In our electoral act, the term “foreign” covers overseas governments or corporations, as well as any non-citizen, either in Australia or overseas. These include some refugees and those in Australia on working or business visas (however long-term), but not permanent residents. </p>
<p>Of course, such foreigners cannot vote in our elections. And the 2018 ban on these individuals donating to electoral campaigns was sensible.</p>
<p>Yet, the new law now threatens fines of up to $26,000 for merely authorising election material. This would include small things like pamphlets, or YouTube content that costs any money to produce. </p>
<p>Many of the guest workers we rely on to work on farms or in the hospitality industry face objectively poor conditions and legal rights. Under this new law, they are permitted to contribute to discussion of these issues, but would be prohibited from trying to sway Australians to vote to address them.</p>
<p>On its face, this breaches freedom of political communication. This freedom is not an individual right, it’s a collective ideal. Its rationale is to ensure we, as an electorate and society, can be informed about politics and government. </p>
<p>Limits on this freedom of political communication have to be proportionate or the High Court can <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-nsw-political-donations-case-the-implied-freedom-of-political-communication-strikes-again-after-21-years-21676">strike them down</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-nsw-political-donations-case-the-implied-freedom-of-political-communication-strikes-again-after-21-years-21676">The NSW political donations case: the implied freedom of political communication strikes again (after 21 years)</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>More systemic issues to worry about</h2>
<p>For over a century, Australian law accepted foreign influence in our politics. A <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/british-lord-made-1m-donation-to-libs-20060201-gdmvxc.html">British lord</a> tipped $1 million into Liberal Party coffers before the 2004 election. US agencies have helped fund <a href="https://catallaxyf.wordpress.com/2005/04/16/the-decline-of-quadrant/">liberty-oriented expression</a>.</p>
<p>Some argue that because goods and finance flow easily internationally, and problems like climate change and pandemics know no borders, foreign influence is not only unavoidable but essential. We live in an integrated world, where interests are intermingled. </p>
<p>Some say these laws are xenophobic against China. But we should be concerned about Chinese influence, due to its sheer size, resources, and opaque and unaccountable system of government. </p>
<p>The bigger problem is we have been focusing on the mote of foreign influence, without addressing the beam in our eye – the broader systemic weakness of our political finance regime. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/177-million-flowed-to-australian-political-parties-last-year-but-major-donors-can-easily-hide-176129">$177 million flowed to Australian political parties last year, but major donors can easily hide</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Our national election act, despite years of debate, still lacks expenditure limits and donation limits. The US, UK, New Zealand, Canada and most Australian states have one or both of these limits. Capping campaign spending helps maintain political equality, while capping donations inhibits those who would give big, behind the scenes, to buy political influence.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"876768266185711617"}"></div></p>
<p>Nor do we regulate <a href="https://theconversation.com/time-to-tighten-the-reins-on-politicians-and-their-truths-62457">misleading political ads</a> at the national level. </p>
<p>Foreign money and disinformation is a worry. But even more so are the much larger sources of both, generated entirely inside the country. </p>
<p>In 2019, for instance, Palmer spent a record-shattering <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/clive-palmer-spent-83-million-on-failed-election-bid-20200203-p53x4j">$83 million</a> to influence the federal election. Parliament had three years to fix this problem. It didn’t; now we get to relive it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177147/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Graeme Orr has received ARC grant funding in the past to research electoral law and work with electoral commissions. He is currently an expert member of the NSW iVote Panel. He also gives pro bono advice to groups lobbying for reform of electoral law.</span></em></p>The new law makes it illegal for ‘foreign’ persons or entities to fundraise or directly spend on electioneering, or to authorise electoral material.Graeme Orr, Professor of Law, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1686482021-10-03T12:58:34Z2021-10-03T12:58:34ZCanada’s first-past-the-post electoral system highlights once again the need for reform<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423945/original/file-20210929-19-1r85tup.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4409%2C2937&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Our first-past-the-post electoral system works poorly when there are lots of three-way races and even some four-way races. Seats can be won with far less than a majority, meaning it's time to revisit electoral reform. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pietro Mattia/Unsplash</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The recent federal election produced the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-minority-governments-have-been-good-and-sometimes-bad-for-canada-168018">second minority government</a> in a row — and the fifth since 2004. </p>
<p>Neither Conservatives nor Liberals <a href="https://enr.elections.ca/National.aspx?lang=e">received more than 34 per cent of the popular vote nationwide,</a> but parliamentary representation remains heavily distorted. </p>
<p>Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system works poorly when there are lots of three-way races and even some four-way races. Seats can be won with far less than a majority, and some regions are disproportionately represented by a single party. There is also a growing <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/opinion-first-past-the-post-rural-urban-divide-1.6186799">rural-urban divide</a> in representation that is exacerbating political fault lines.</p>
<p>There is a compelling alternative used by many other nations: proportional representation, where seats in parliament reflect vote shares. There are three concerns, however: local representation, fringe parties and weak governments. Nonetheless, a smartly designed proportional system can overcome the first two concerns, and parliamentary protocol can address the third. </p>
<h2>A new idea for electoral reform</h2>
<p>The menu of electoral systems used to feature either proportionality, local representation or awkward combinations of the two.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.06.015">My own research</a> offers a new electoral system that can deliver proportionality and even enhance local representation. It combines provincial proportional representation with electoral districts represented by two members of Parliament instead of one.</p>
<p>People vote for parties instead of local candidates, and elected members from each party have to represent two districts each so that the most voters are represented by their preferred party choice from each riding. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman lines up outside a building to vote with yellow vote signs on either side of her." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423948/original/file-20210929-66321-1dt7n1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423948/original/file-20210929-66321-1dt7n1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423948/original/file-20210929-66321-1dt7n1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423948/original/file-20210929-66321-1dt7n1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423948/original/file-20210929-66321-1dt7n1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423948/original/file-20210929-66321-1dt7n1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423948/original/file-20210929-66321-1dt7n1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A voter queues at a polling station to cast their ballot in Toronto in the 2021 federal election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In almost all instances, the “senior” member who received more votes than the “junior” member in a riding will be from the same party as with our current system.</p>
<p>But because each district has two members of Parliament, there is better local representation overall, and there is more competition among parties for effective representation of each district. </p>
<p>Each parliamentarian has a bit more work than before, looking after two districts rather than one. Because voting patterns cluster locally, most parliamentarians will look after neighbouring districts. Dual representation makes it much more likely that districts are represented by someone from a party in government. Voters have two members of Parliament they can appeal to with their local concerns. </p>
<h2>Provinces keep same number of seats</h2>
<p>Proportionality is achieved separately for each province, reflecting Canada’s federal structure. Each province would maintain their current number of seats, while the three territories would continue to elect their member of Parliament directly. Provincial proportionality means that only Albertan parliamentarians would represent Alberta, and only Québecois parliamentarians would represent Québec.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423950/original/file-20210929-66205-15b85r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Bernier, in a blue suit, frowns." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423950/original/file-20210929-66205-15b85r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423950/original/file-20210929-66205-15b85r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423950/original/file-20210929-66205-15b85r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423950/original/file-20210929-66205-15b85r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423950/original/file-20210929-66205-15b85r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423950/original/file-20210929-66205-15b85r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423950/original/file-20210929-66205-15b85r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Maxime Bernier speaks to supporters on election night.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Liam Richards</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To prevent regional and fringe parties from gaining undue representation and influence, proportionality needs strong thresholds: a five per cent hurdle nationwide and for each province. In September’s election, this threshold would have applied to both the Green Party and the People’s Party of Canada (PPC). Maxime Bernier’s PPC came within a whisker of the first hurdle, receiving 4.94 per cent of the popular vote nationwide.</p>
<p>Some critics associate proportionality with fractious parliaments, instability, weak governments and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1162/003355302753650346">fiscal profligacy</a>. But this outcome is unlikely in Canada because there are well-established major parties that will continue to vie for first place. </p>
<p>Parliamentary protocol already ensures that governments can’t be toppled too easily. The “<a href="https://www.ourcommons.ca/about/procedureandpractice3rdedition/ch_02_2-e.html">confidence convention</a>” requires a government to enjoy the support and confidence of the majority in the House of Commons. The current system encourages premature parliamentary dissolution in a quest for majority government. But majority governments remain elusive.</p>
<h2>Parliamentary composition</h2>
<p>What would the electoral map look like under proportionality?</p>
<p>Conservatives would gain four seats (123 instead of 119), Liberals would lose 36 seats (123 instead of 159), the NDP would gain 40 seats (65 instead of 25) and the Bloc Québécois would lose six seats (27 instead of 33). </p>
<p>The Green Party and People’s Party would be shut out due to the five per cent hurdle. Parliament would retain a centre-left majority, but with a rather different composition. (Riding-by-riding results are on <a href="https://wernerantweiler.ca/blog.php?item=2021-09-24">my web page</a>.)</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A graph shows the actual and hypothetical composition of the 44th Canadian Parliament" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424082/original/file-20210930-24-96n76p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424082/original/file-20210930-24-96n76p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424082/original/file-20210930-24-96n76p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424082/original/file-20210930-24-96n76p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424082/original/file-20210930-24-96n76p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424082/original/file-20210930-24-96n76p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424082/original/file-20210930-24-96n76p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Actual and hypothetical composition of the 44th Canadian Parliament.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors' calculations</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Electoral reform creates winners and losers. In 2021, proportionality would have benefited New Democrats the most. </p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, Liberals prefer milder versions of electoral reform such as ranked ballots. Conservatives prefer none at all.</p>
<p>After Liberals won a majority government in 2015, <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/fr/magazines/fevrier-2017/broken-trust-on-electoral-reform/">their appetite for electoral reform quickly vanished</a>. Ultimately, electoral reform may only come about if a smaller party — likely the NDP — holds the balance of power and makes electoral reform the price to pay for supporting a minority government.</p>
<p>The fact remains that <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/septembe-2021/too-many-canadians-vote-for-a-political-party-leaving-local-candidates-with-little-influence/">voters care more about parties than local candidates</a>. Proportionality would be fairer, but effective local representation is also needed and can actually be improved by maximizing preferred-party representation in each district.</p>
<p>My research shows that local representation does not need to be diluted to gain proportionality. Canada deserves a 21st-century electoral system that fits its unique political landscape.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168648/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Werner Antweiler does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research offers a new electoral system that can deliver proportionality and even enhance local representation.Werner Antweiler, Associate Professor, Strategy and Business Economics, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1572902021-06-10T14:56:29Z2021-06-10T14:56:29ZDutch elections show the promise and perils of proportional representation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405401/original/file-20210609-14971-szflz2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6016%2C3413&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People stand in line waiting to vote in the Hague in the Netherlands.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Dutch elections were <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2021/03/17/mark-rutte-s-party-wins-most-seats-in-dutch-general-election-exit-poll-suggests">held almost three months ago</a>, but it’s still unclear who will form the next government. This is normal in the Netherlands, <a href="https://www.expatica.com/nl/living/gov-law-admin/netherlands-political-system-100756/">where all governments are coalitions because no party ever wins a majority of the seats</a>. </p>
<p>After the March 2017 elections, the new government wasn’t installed until October, a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government-idUSKBN1CV15D">record-setting 225 days after the elections</a>. That government included four parties; the new government now being negotiated is likely to include five or more.</p>
<p>With the single member plurality electoral system — known as “first past the post” — Canadians are used to quick results. On the rare occasions that no single party wins a majority of seats, the parties quickly determine if they can govern as a minority with support from other parties, as the current Liberal government is doing. </p>
<p>The first-past-the-post system, however, distorts the results. <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-election-frustrations-for-the-greens-highlight-electoral-system-flaws-again-125621">In the 2019 Canadian election</a>, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals won 46 per cent of seats with only 33 per cent of the votes while the Conservatives won 36 per cent of seats with 34 per cent of the votes. </p>
<p>Despite winning more than twice as many votes as the Bloc Québecois, with nine per cent of seats at under eight per cent of the votes, the NDP won only seven per cent of seats, the Greens won only three seats despite winning almost seven per cent of the votes, and no other party won seats. </p>
<h2>Proportional representation</h2>
<p>By contrast, elections in the Netherlands operate with pure proportional representation, with no threshold. To win one of the 150 seats in the Dutch parliament, a party needs only 1/150th of the votes — currently around 70,000. </p>
<p>Most countries using proportional representation have an electoral threshold, often five per cent, so parties winning less than that don’t win seats. Because so few votes are needed to win a seat in the Dutch parliament, <a href="https://www.verkiezingsuitslagen.nl/verkiezingen/detail/TK20210317">37 parties ran candidates and 17 parties elected representatives</a>.</p>
<p>Had Canada used the Dutch system in 2019, the Conservatives would have had a few more seats than the Liberals (who would have had far fewer seats), the Bloc would have had fewer, the NDP and Greens would have had more, and even Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party would have won a few seats. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-canadian-election-results-would-have-looked-like-with-electoral-reform-125848">What the Canadian election results would have looked like with electoral reform</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This splintered political landscape in the Netherlands is relatively new. As recently as 2012, the government could be formed with only two parties: Mark Rutte’s conservative Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie party, known as VVD (41 seats) in coalition with Labour (38 seats). In earlier years, the largest party often won 50 or more seats. </p>
<p>The fact that every vote counts means that participation in Dutch elections is high: 79 per cent voted in March, a slight dip from the 82 per cent who voted in the previous elections — but far above the <a href="https://elections.ca/content.aspx?section=ele&dir=turn&document=index&lang=e">67 per cent of Canadian voters who turned out in 2019 and the 59 per cent who voted in 2008</a>.</p>
<h2>New ideas, emerging trends</h2>
<p>Proportional representation also means that new ideas and societal trends quickly enter parliament. A Green party and an anti-immigration party both won seats as early as the 1980s, and the new Dutch parliament includes <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/02/caged-bunnies-budgies-may-outlawed-netherlands/">representatives of an animal rights party</a>, several religious parties, a party for pensioners, a farmer’s party and <a href="https://voltnederland.org/">three members of the pan-European party Volt</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="A man in a suit and tie waves" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405390/original/file-20210609-14704-16vyxfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405390/original/file-20210609-14704-16vyxfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405390/original/file-20210609-14704-16vyxfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405390/original/file-20210609-14704-16vyxfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405390/original/file-20210609-14704-16vyxfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405390/original/file-20210609-14704-16vyxfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405390/original/file-20210609-14704-16vyxfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte arrives for an EU summit in Sweden in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Virginia Mayo)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With proportional representation combined with a divided society, one might expect chaos and instability. Yet the opposite is often true: Rutte has been in office since 2010 and is widely expected to continue as prime minister, despite <a href="https://apnews.com/article/mark-rutte-netherlands-europe-elections-338dc3293ec7bf1ac206c9f3659caea1">parliament passing a motion of censure against him</a>.</p>
<p>Because VVD won the most votes, the party won’t drop him as leader. And the other potential governing parties do not appear to have the appetite or the numbers to cobble together the complex coalition required to govern without the VVD. </p>
<p>Similarly, it took a <a href="https://time.com/6053465/israel-netanyahu-coalition/">coalition of eight parties in Israel to oust prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu</a>, who had been prime minister since 2009. It’s common to see only incremental change rather than huge swings under proportional representation systems.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/after-12-years-of-netanyahu-heres-what-to-expect-from-a-new-coalition-government-in-israel-162054">After 12 years of Netanyahu, here's what to expect from a new coalition government in Israel</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>By contrast, in first-past-the-post systems, small changes in vote share can lead to large swings. In the 2004 federal election, for example, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives dropped from 38 per cent to 30 per cent of votes, but <a href="https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=eim/issue16&document=p9&lang=e">actually increased their seats, from 78 to 99</a>. The Liberal vote share, meantime, dipped slightly from 41 per cent to 37 per cent but they fell dramatically, from 172 to 135 seats.</p>
<h2>Low-drama elections</h2>
<p>Elections under proportional representation tend to be less dramatic because the seats accurately reflect the vote share — though in the 2017 Dutch elections, Labour suffered a historic defeat.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405395/original/file-20210609-14856-121blza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Geert Wilders with a microphone in the foreground" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405395/original/file-20210609-14856-121blza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405395/original/file-20210609-14856-121blza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405395/original/file-20210609-14856-121blza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405395/original/file-20210609-14856-121blza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405395/original/file-20210609-14856-121blza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405395/original/file-20210609-14856-121blza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405395/original/file-20210609-14856-121blza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders addresses the media at the Belgian federal parliament in Brussels in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Geert Vanden Wijngaert)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It dropped from 25 per cent of the votes (38 seats) to under six per cent (nine seats), which they repeated this year. </p>
<p>Geert Wilders dropped from 20 seats to 17 while the upstart Forum for Democracy party grew from two in the 2017 elections to eight seats with five per cent of the vote — a far cry from the results of the 2019 provincial elections, where Forum rocketed to first place with almost 15 per of the votes. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Thierry Baudet casts a ballot." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405396/original/file-20210609-15050-3jycm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405396/original/file-20210609-15050-3jycm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405396/original/file-20210609-15050-3jycm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405396/original/file-20210609-15050-3jycm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405396/original/file-20210609-15050-3jycm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405396/original/file-20210609-15050-3jycm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405396/original/file-20210609-15050-3jycm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Thierry Baudet, leader of the populist party Forum for Democracy, casts his ballot in the European elections in 2019 in Amsterdam.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Peter Dejong)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Forum leader Thierry Baudet’s <a href="https://more.bham.ac.uk/populism-in-action/2021/01/15/the-dutch-far-right-in-2021-a-view-from-the-ground/">controversial statements and conspiracy theories</a> dimmed his prospects. </p>
<p>But he won some votes by campaigning against COVID-19 lockdown measures, while also enabling a new right-wing party led by two former Forum members to win three seats.</p>
<h2>Low geographic representation</h2>
<p>Pure proportional representation does not ensure geographic representation. The Netherlands has a <a href="https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/visualisaties/dashboard-bevolking">population of over 17 million people</a> in an area smaller than Nova Scotia. Yet even in such a small country, there are regional differences, and the existing electoral rules do a poor job of translating those differences into seats. </p>
<p>For example, while every one of Canada’s 338 MPs represents a specific geographic constituency, the most recent Dutch elections resulted in only one representative each from two of its 11 provinces; most representatives come from the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Randstad">dominant Randstad</a>.</p>
<p>This problem inspired one of the recommendations of the <a href="https://www.staatscommissieparlementairstelsel.nl/actueel/nieuws/2019/07/18/download-the-english-translation-of-the-final-report-of-the-state-commission">parliamentary commission on the state of democracy in the Netherlands</a> — introducing a personal and regional component by assigning greater weight to preference votes. Dutch voters can vote for any candidate running for any party, but candidates now need one-quarter of the general threshold (approximately 17,500 votes) to jump ahead of their colleagues on the party list and win a seat.</p>
<p>The outgoing government supports the commission’s proposal, and if the new parliament agrees, it <a href="https://www.internetconsultatie.nl/burgerforum">could be in place in time for the 2023 elections</a>. By contrast, various proposals for proportional representation in Canada have so far failed to become law, despite considerable public support and a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-electoral-reform-proportional-representation-1.5225616">promise from Trudeau that the 2015 elections would be the last held under the first-past-the-post system</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157290/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Willem Maas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The March elections in the Netherlands, and the fact that a government still hasn’t been formed, illustrate both the benefits and problems with proportional representation.Willem Maas, Jean Monnet Chair and Professor of Political Science, Socio-Legal Studies, and Public & International Affairs, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1596932021-05-09T08:26:11Z2021-05-09T08:26:11ZNigeria’s electoral system is still broken. Here’s a list of what’s urgent<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399177/original/file-20210506-16-1aw36uh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Electoral reforms are important before Nigerians go to the polls in 2023 </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/polling-station-workers-adding-posters-on-the-wall-at-news-photo/1228601182?adppopup=true">Olukayode Jaiyeola/NurPhoto via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The chairman of Nigeria’s electoral commission, Mahmood Yakubu, was <a href="https://www.thecable.ng/mahmood-yakubu-becomes-first-inec-chairman-sworn-in-for-second-term">sworn in</a> for a second term nearly six months ago. His second term will be defined by how much he’s able to improve the integrity of the country’s election system.</p>
<p>Yakubu faces an uphill task. </p>
<p>Complaints that Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission can’t deliver free and fair polls have been growing louder. In particular, the 2019 elections came in for a heavy dose of criticism on the grounds that they were not <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/25/africa/nigeria-election-unrest-intl/index.html">totally free and fair</a>. </p>
<p>Yakubu’s hand could be strengthened if the National Assembly finally approves amendments to the country’s 2010 electoral act. The changes, which have been put up for <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/430402-national-assembly-holds-public-hearing-on-amendment-of-electoral-law.html">public debate</a>, are designed to ensure free and fair elections.</p>
<p>Delivering credible elections in 2023 will show how well the Commission is successful under his leadership. </p>
<h2>A chequered election history</h2>
<p>The electoral commission has conducted elections at national and state levels since 1999 when the country returned to democratic rule. </p>
<p>Its performance <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2007/04/25/nigeria-presidential-election-marred-fraud-violence">reached a nadir</a> in 2007. Five governorship elections won by candidates of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) that year were <a href="https://www.eisa.org/pdf/JAE11.1Aiyede.pdf">reversed by the courts</a>. Umaru Musa Yar’Adua was elected president in the poll and he served until his <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/may/06/yaradua-nigeri-dies-president">sudden death</a> in 2010. On assuming office he admitted that they <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/200705300320.html">had shortcomings</a> and went on to <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/200903301538.html">establish</a> an electoral reform committee headed by Justice Mohammed Uwais. </p>
<p>The committee submitted <a href="https://www.nas-int.org/currentaffairs/public-lectures/687-ten-years-of-nigerian-democracy-a-review-of-the-electoral-process?start=3">its report</a> 16 months later. It recommended various reforms to strengthen electoral administration. These included:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>making the election commission truly independent by removing the president’s powers to appoint the chairman and members of the commission and making appointments the responsibility of the National Judicial Council.</p></li>
<li><p>changing the funding model for the electoral commission to ensure it was left free of government interference. </p></li>
<li><p>the integration of the independent electoral commissions of each state into the commission’s structures. </p></li>
<li><p>the establishment of an Electoral Offences Commission to prosecute electoral offenders.</p></li>
<li><p>shifting the burden of proof in election petitions from the petitioner to electoral commission. This is to show that elections were free and fair when challenged. </p></li>
<li><p>the introduction of a mixed electoral system, with an introduction of elements of proportional representation. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Attahiru Jega, a member of the committee who later <a href="https://www.pmnewsnigeria.com/2010/06/08/jonathan-picks-prof-jega-as-inec-chairman/">became</a> the commission chairman, was able to implement some of the recommendations. These included reorganising the commission, streamlining the voting procedure and biometric register of voters. </p>
<p>But, for the most part, the major structural reforms remained stalled.</p>
<p>Some improvements have nevertheless been made.</p>
<h2>Reforms</h2>
<p>Yakubu was able to incorporate lessons learnt from past elections to build on the workings of the commission. He has also stepped up interaction with election observer groups and political parties.</p>
<p>He also:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>introduced the transfer of registration location and release of a copy of voters’ register on demand at the payment of a fee. This enables the voter who has changed residence between elections to vote in his or her current location and make the registration process more transparent.</p></li>
<li><p>simultaneous accreditation and voting with the announcement of elections results from the polling unit. This will enable access to the results from lowest to highest level to promote transparency. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Other changes include amendments to the Constitution and the Electoral Act which empower the Independent National Electoral Commission to de-register parties. But this has been only partly successful. The changes to the Act led to <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2020/02/full-list-of-the-74-parties-deregistered-by-inec/">74 being deregistered</a>. The Supreme Court <a href="https://punchng.com/breaking-supreme-court-upholds-inecs-deregistration-of-74-political-parties/">recently upheld</a> an earlier judgment of the Court of Appeal which okayed the deregistration of the 74 parties.</p>
<p>Changes have been made in the ceiling on campaign or party finance too. There’s a penalty for failing to provide accurate audited financial records. There were also changes in the penalty on electoral offences. </p>
<p>But there’s a great deal that hasn’t happened that should have.</p>
<h2>Challenges of 2019 elections</h2>
<p>My <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/350467727_Aiyede_Matters_Arising_from_the_2019_Elections_and_Electoral_Reform_Processes?origin=mail&uploadChannel=re390&reqAcc=Salawu-Ibrahim-Ajisola&useStoredCopy=0">review</a> of election observers’ reports on the 2019 elections show there were interferences with results collation by political party agents and security agencies with the connivance of electoral commission officials. Inefficiencies in its operations manifested in puzzling discrepancies in records, voters’ register data and declared election results.</p>
<p>For instance, presidential and National Assembly elections were held simultaneously. But there were more votes cast in the presidential elections than the National Assembly.</p>
<p>Figures on the total number of registered voters announced before the election and the figures announced by electoral commission during the collation in 30 of the 36 states were inconsistent. Furthermore, poor logistics and supply of materials resulted in delays and created room for malpractices. There were also localised incidents of voter intimidation, ballot snatching and destruction.</p>
<p>And the primaries for the major parties were riddled with allegations of bad practice. </p>
<p>My review also concluded that security agencies were deployed without any clear coordination with electoral commission as required by law. The <a href="http://www.eods.eu/library/nigeria_2019_eu_eom_final_report-web.pdf">military</a> posed significant challenges and obstruction to the performance of election duties by commission officials in some parts of Rivers State. Reports noted the overbearing and partisan role of the police and the secret service personnel.</p>
<h2>Yakubu’s agenda</h2>
<p>On being sworn in Yakubu made clear that he was <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHmu1qG0ihg">intent on improving</a> the integrity of elections under his watch. </p>
<p>He announced his commitment to getting the proposed changes to be made through the Electoral Act Repeal and Re-enactment Bill 2021. In the build-up to the 2019 elections, President Muhammadu Buhari refused assent to bills proposing election-related amendments to the Constitution three times in 2018 – in <a href="https://guardian.ng/news/buhari-declines-assent-to-electoral-amendment-bill-2018/">March</a>, <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/09/why-buhari-declined-assent-to-electoral-act-amendment-bill-presidency/">September</a> and <a href="https://guardian.ng/news/again-buhari-declines-assent-to-electoral-act/">December</a>. </p>
<p>The Act provided more detailed rules on various aspects of the electoral process than the constitution. The provisions of the Act must not contradict that of the constitution otherwise the courts would declare such provisions unconstitutional. An example is the earlier provision of the Act that allowed the electoral commission to de-register parties. This contradicts the freedom of association guaranteed by the constitution.</p>
<p>Yakubu has also begun consultations across the country to facilitate constituency delimitation to increase the number of polling units to reduce the distance voters have to cover and easy access to voting points. </p>
<p>There are other issues he should address as a matter of urgency too.</p>
<p>First, the channels for the distribution and retrieval of election materials must be strengthened. He must also improve the transparency of the collation and transmission of election results. And he must seek greater use of technology, especially electronic accreditation and verification of voters. Similarly electronic transmission of results, storage and publication of electoral data.</p>
<p>He must work with others to reduce vote buying and provide innovative means of reducing electoral malpractices such as the use of violence and ballot snatching. </p>
<p>He should also promote internal democracy among political parties. This is a major reason to continue pushing for an electoral offences commission. </p>
<p>He also needs to address the proliferation of political parties and its implications for election logistics, ballot access and polling management. I urge Yakubu to consider measures to control access to the ballot by political parties as an option for managing party proliferation. </p>
<p>Lastly, Nigeria needs to review the current first-past-the-post single member district system that continues to make electoral competition a winner takes all game. Introducing elements of proportional representation will ameliorate the intensity of electoral competition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159693/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emmanuel Remi Aiyede does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nigeria must fix its electoral system before the next general elections in 2023.Emmanuel Remi Aiyede, Professor of Political Institutions, Governance and Public Policy, University of IbadanLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1556402021-04-09T01:41:15Z2021-04-09T01:41:15ZHere’s why the Coalition favours optional preferential voting: it would devastate Labor<p>Could a change be afoot in the way Australians vote in federal elections? </p>
<p>The Coalition government may be eyeing a shift to optional preferential voting — as used in New South Wales — which allows voters to simply vote “1” or allocate only a partial list of preferences on their ballot, instead of a full ordering of preferences for every candidate.</p>
<p>The proposal was included in a series of potentially revolutionary changes to our electoral system that were quietly <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/committees/reportjnt/024439/toc_pdf/Reportontheconductofthe2019federalelectionandmattersrelatedthereto.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf">released</a> by a parliamentary committee in December, when few people were paying attention. </p>
<p>The joint standing committee on electoral matters claimed a shift to optional preferential voting would help address rising rates of “<a href="http://past.electionwatch.edu.au/australia-2013/analysis/informal-voting-rise">informal voting</a>” in NSW caused by the differences between the state and federal systems. The reason: a valid vote at the state level with less than a full list of preferences would be invalid if repeated at a federal election.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1337170244528295937"}"></div></p>
<p>What the committee did not say is that based on current voting patterns, a shift to optional preferencing could also cement the Coalition in government.</p>
<p>As a follow-up to a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10361146.2021.1879010">newly published study</a>, we have modelled how recent federal elections would have changed if an optional preferential system had been used. We found the results would have been devastating for Labor.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/parliamentary-electoral-committee-floats-bigger-parliament-longer-terms-and-no-byelections-151863">Parliamentary electoral committee floats bigger parliament, longer terms and no byelections</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Labor supported by Greens preferences</h2>
<p>The reason the Coalition would benefit from an optional preferential voting system is simple. </p>
<p>In recent decades, Labor’s primary vote has slumped in federal elections, but full preferential voting has kept its <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/elections/federal_elections/tpp-results.htm">two-party preferred vote high</a>. </p>
<p>This is because Labor benefits from consistent preference flows from parties to the left, in particular the Greens. Approximately <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/preference-flows-at-the-2019-federal-election/">80% of Greens preferences</a> at federal elections go to the ALP at present. </p>
<p>A significant proportion of this preference flow is the result of Greens voters being forced to choose between Labor and the Coalition at some point – even in their final preference markings on the ballot – so their votes are valid. </p>
<p>Labor and the Greens <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Electoral_Matters/2019Federalelection/Report/section?id=committees%2freportjnt%2f024439%2f75701">oppose</a> changing the current voting system, but the proposal from the joint standing committee <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/dec/12/liberal-plan-to-change-federal-voting-laws-may-have-crossbench-support">reportedly has support</a> from some Senate cross-benchers.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-one-nation-on-the-march-a-change-to-compulsory-voting-might-backfire-on-labor-86923">With One Nation on the march, a change to compulsory voting might backfire on Labor</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How Labor would have fared under optional preferences</h2>
<p>Data collected by the ABC’s election analyst, Antony Green, at the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-26/second-preferences-at-the-2015-nsw-election/9388644">2015 NSW election</a> shows the rate of Greens preferences transferring to Labor declines precipitously from 82.7% under full preferential voting to just 37.4% under optional preferential voting.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1108276991411650561"}"></div></p>
<p>In our study, we extrapolated how past election outcomes would have been affected if this was repeated nationally. We were conscious of the challenges that come with generalising in this way, and comparing one state’s data to the country as a whole. </p>
<p>We found that in most seats, switching to optional preferential voting would have partisan effects that are sharply skewed to the right.</p>
<p>This is best illustrated by looking at the seats Labor has won in recent elections by overtaking the Coalition after trailing on first preferences. These would be the seats most affected by a shift from full to optional preferential voting. </p>
<p>These “come-from-behind” victories would become much rarer under optional preferential voting. By our calculations, Labor would have won somewhere between five and eight fewer seats at each recent federal election, as the graph below shows.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393910/original/file-20210408-19-6txork.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393910/original/file-20210408-19-6txork.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393910/original/file-20210408-19-6txork.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393910/original/file-20210408-19-6txork.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393910/original/file-20210408-19-6txork.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393910/original/file-20210408-19-6txork.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393910/original/file-20210408-19-6txork.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>This means Labor would have lost the 2010 election outright and suffered heavier defeats in the 2013, 2016 and 2019 elections if optional preferences had been in use. Labor would also have lost the byelections in 2018 and 2020.</p>
<p>In 2010, the fragile Labor minority government would have likely won independent Andrew Wilkie’s and The Greens’ Adam Bandt’s seats under optional preferential voting, but would have lost four others to the Liberals, including Treasurer Wayne Swan’s seat of Lilley. Labor would not have had enough seats to form government.</p>
<p>Labor won a total of 36 come-from-behind seats in the 2013, 2016 and 2019 elections. Our analysis suggests Labor would have won less than half (17) of these seats under optional preferencing.</p>
<h2>Minor parties and independents would also be shut out</h2>
<p>Our model also suggests minor parties and independents would struggle to win under optional preferential voting. </p>
<p>As mentioned before, Labor would have won the seats of Melbourne and Dension from Bandt and Wilkie in 2010. </p>
<p>And the Liberals would have triumphed over Cathy McGowan (independent), Clive Palmer (Palmer United Party) and Bob Katter (Katter’s Australian Party) in 2013; Rebekha Sharkie (Nick Xenophon Team/Centre Alliance) in 2016 and 2019; Kerryn Phelps (independent) in 2018 and Helen Haines (independent) in 2019. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393907/original/file-20210407-21-1qul1ey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393907/original/file-20210407-21-1qul1ey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393907/original/file-20210407-21-1qul1ey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393907/original/file-20210407-21-1qul1ey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393907/original/file-20210407-21-1qul1ey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393907/original/file-20210407-21-1qul1ey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393907/original/file-20210407-21-1qul1ey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Our modelling suggests Independent MP Cathy McGowan would have lost the 2019 election for the seat of Indi under optional preferential voting.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With fewer independents and minor parties, the House of Representatives would be a less diverse and colourful place, and the crossbench less politically influential.</p>
<p>Given this, it is striking that both Centre Alliance and One Nation <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/dec/12/liberal-plan-to-change-federal-voting-laws-may-have-crossbench-support">will reportedly back the government</a> in the Senate if it decides to push for a change to optional preferential voting. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-does-preferential-voting-work-in-the-house-of-representatives-116348">Explainer: how does preferential voting work in the House of Representatives?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Whether the government pursues reform before the next election probably comes down to the Senate numbers, given Labor and the Greens will bitterly oppose any change. </p>
<p>It will also depend on internal Coalition management considerations, with the National Party traditionally opposed to optional preferences, and the government’s more precarious numbers in the House since <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/23/craig-kelly-quits-liberal-party-to-move-to-the-crossbench">Craig Kelly’s move to the crossbench</a>. </p>
<p>The government response to the joint standing committee’s report is currently being prepared by the assistant minister for electoral matters, Ben Morton, a former party secretary. </p>
<p>While tightly guarded, we can say with confidence that the reason advanced by the committee for the change – that it will reduce informal voting – is unlikely to feature highly in his calculations. Instead, raw political calculations must make this a highly tempting reform for the government.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Jack Stewart, a Bachelor of Philosophy (Hons) student at the University of Western Australia, compiled the data for this study.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155640/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Reilly does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research examines how recent federal elections would have been affected if optional preferential voting had been used. The results were not favourable to Labor.Benjamin Reilly, Professor, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1571492021-03-22T15:06:23Z2021-03-22T15:06:23ZSouth Africa is ripe for electoral reform. Why its time might have come<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390330/original/file-20210318-13-lqe1vb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">ANC campaigners at voting station in November 2020.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by Darren Stewart/Gallo Images via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa adopted its <a href="https://hsf.org.za/publications/hsf-briefs/the-south-african-electoral-system">electoral system</a> during the process of making a new constitution in the run up to its transition to democracy in <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/04597239308460952?journalCode=tssu20">1994</a>. </p>
<p>The system agreed was proportional representation. This involved parties drawing up lists of representatives which would get seats in legislatures according to the proportion of votes the parties won in the polls. This system was chosen because it was seen as allowing maximum representation of different political opinions and ethnic identities. </p>
<p>The system has worked well to <a href="http://www.careers.uct.ac.za/sites/default/files/image_tool/images/136/Mattes%20111dem03.pdf">represent minority parties</a> along with <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/NPEDashboard/app/dashboard.html">recurrent African National Congress majorities</a> in the National Assembly and in most of the country’s nine provinces. </p>
<p>But some now see it as working against <a href="https://mg.co.za/opinion/2020-08-15-electoral-reform-its-now-or-never/">accountability</a>. This is because <a href="http://www.elections.org.za/content/Elections/Election-types/">proportional representation</a> hands power to party bosses – which in turn disempowers voters. MPs feel beholden to their parties, rather than to the people who elected them.</p>
<p>The existing electoral system has attracted extensive criticism for rendering elected representatives unaccountable to those who elected them. Correspondingly, calls for electoral reform have been growing louder, with especial demands that voters should be enabled to <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2017-12-15-south-africa-needs-electoral-reform-but-presidents-powers-need-watching/">elect their representatives directly</a>. But attempts at reform have all been stymied by a reluctance on the part of the politically dominant African National Congress which is well served by the current system.</p>
<p>The call for reform was given a significant boost following a ruling by the country’s top court, The Constitutional Court, in June last year. The judgment forced the issue by calling for amendments to the Electoral Act. In the wake of the ruling, an influential lobby group, the <a href="https://www.inclusivesociety.org.za/">Inclusive Society Institute</a>, has recently produced a detailed report setting out recommendations for electoral reform. </p>
<h2>Electoral reform</h2>
<p>The Constitutional Court <a href="http://www.saflii.org/za/cases/ZACC/2020/11.html">judgment of June 2020</a> declared the current <a href="http://www.saflii.org/za/legis/num_act/ea1998103.pdf">Electoral Act</a> unconstitutional. This is because the act barred individuals, as distinct from parties, from standing for election at national and provincial levels. </p>
<p>Parliament is now obliged to change the law. A <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.za/press-releases/home-affairs-committee-adopts-electoral-laws-amendment-bill">bill</a> to allow for the change is in progress. This has opened the door to wider reform of the electoral act, particularly with regard to the idea of blending the right of voters to elect their representatives directly with the constitutional imperative for proportional representation.</p>
<p>The proposals for reform made by the <a href="https://www.inclusivesociety.org.za/about-us">Inclusive Society Institute</a> were drawn up by a committee chaired by <a href="http://www.thepresidency.gov.za/national-orders/recipient/roelf-petrus-meyer-1947">Roelf Meyer</a>, who served as the chief representative of the former ruling <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/national-party-np">National Party</a> during the constitution-making process. </p>
<p>The committee’s <a href="https://cisp.cachefly.net/assets/articles/attachments/84679_2021.02.24_electoral_reform_report.pdf">report</a> makes a number of suggestions. These include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>that the National Assembly should consist of the current 400 representatives. Of these, 300 should be elected from multi-member constituencies. </p></li>
<li><p>A further 100 compensatory seats should be provided to ensure the overall proportionality of the outcome. </p></li>
<li><p>If a party obtained, overall, 55% of the total national vote, it would receive extra seats (in addition to those it won at constituency level) to provide it with 55% representation in parliament. (Similarly at provincial level.)</p></li>
</ul>
<p>To meet the demands of the Constitutional Court, independent candidates would be able to stand in the multi-member constituencies. </p>
<p>Given the number of registered voters, around 26.7 million <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/NPEDashboard/app/dashboard.html">in 2018</a>, independent candidates would need to receive about 90 000 votes to be elected to the National Assembly. </p>
<h2>More voice, greater fluidity</h2>
<p>The idea behind multi-member constituencies is that 300 out of the 400 MPs would become accountable not only to parties but also to constituencies. This would be a welcome change, even if it would fall short of the direct accountability that many voters would like. </p>
<p>Such a system opens the door to candidates who want to raise issues that are too often smothered by the established political parties. Concerns about <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2021-01-15-fewer-protests-in-2020-but-that-doesnt-mean-people-are-happier/">government service delivery</a> and about the environment immediately come to mind.</p>
<p>Such a system would also enable aspirant candidates who have failed to gain nomination by their preferred political party to stand, perhaps as independent members of their parties.</p>
<p>The adoption of the system would, therefore, allow voters greater choice. It would also introduce great fluidity into the electoral system by impressing on MPs that they are accountable to constituents as well as their party bosses.</p>
<p>Given that recent elections have seen a steady decline in the proportion of <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-2019-poll-showed-dangerous-signs-of-insiders-and-outsiders-121758">the votes going to the ANC</a> – there are suggestions that it could lose its majority in the next general election <a href="https://www.eisa.org/wep/southafrica.htm">in 2024</a> – there are even chances that the country would have its first government by coalition in the national parliament.</p>
<h2>What next?</h2>
<p>The proposals revive the <a href="https://static.pmg.org.za/docs/Van-Zyl-Slabbert-Commission-on-Electoral-Reform-Report-2003.pdf">reforms proposed</a> by the task team led by the late former opposition leader <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/people/frederik-van-zyl-slabbert">Van Zyl Slabbert</a> in 2003. The team was carrying out a constitutional requirement to review the electoral system after five years of democracy. </p>
<p>The team recommended a change that would have introduced multi-member constituencies - whereby each constituency is represented by between three and seven MPs. But the ANC used its majority in parliament to <a href="https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/elections/2302232/electoral-reform-time-to-dust-off-the-van-zyl-slabbert-report/">block the proposed reform</a>. What chances are there that this time round the ANC will agree to what would be a far-reaching reform of the electoral system along the lines suggested by the institute?</p>
<p>The party rejected the Slabbert Committee’s recommendations on the grounds that the current system was working satisfactorily. Not least because it was simple and easy to understand. It might now well argue along similar lines. It might suggest that the introduction of multi-member constituencies, with a proportional representation top-up to ensure proportionality, might appear opaque to the majority of the population. </p>
<p>It would be simpler, it might say, to fulfil the Constitutional Court’s ruling by merely allowing individual candidates to stand alongside political parties on the national list. That would enable their election if they garnered the necessary minimum of votes.</p>
<p>While such a minimum change might serve the party’s interests, the sheer difficulties which individual candidates would encounter in attracting nationwide support would effectively gut the reform of content. It will leave MPs as unaccountable in practice as they are today.</p>
<p>There is, within the ANC, a reformist group lobbying for a major change within the electoral system. Likewise, the recent formation of a grouping of “struggle veterans” to <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2021-03-18-anti-apartheid-activists-resurrect-the-fight-for-democracy/?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Emergency+power+bids+set+to+inject+R45bn+and+ease+chronic+shortages+%7C+Employers+refund+R2bn+to+UIF+after+fraudulent+Ters+claims+%7C+CHRIS+ROPER%3A+Race+to+the+bottom&utm_term=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.businesslive.co.za%2Fbd%2Fnational%2F2021-03-18-anti-apartheid-activists-resurrect-the-fight-for-democracy%2F">defend the constitution and democracy</a>, suggests that momentum for electoral reform might grow. </p>
<p>But, there is real danger that any debate around electoral reform will get caught up in the ANC’s factional politics. Yet, still, the present moment presents a genuine opportunity for a more accountable and truly democratic politics. It will be to South Africa’s great detriment if that opportunity for change is missed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157149/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Southall has previously recieved funding from the NRC. </span></em></p>The existing electoral system has attracted extensive criticism for rendering elected representatives unaccountable to those who elected them.Roger Southall, Professor of Sociology, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.