tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/electric-utilities-17474/articlesElectric utilities – The Conversation2024-03-21T12:22:54Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2170732024-03-21T12:22:54Z2024-03-21T12:22:54ZCalifornia is wrestling with electricity prices – here’s how to design a system that covers the cost of fixing the grid while keeping prices fair<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582593/original/file-20240318-22-5gynnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1492%2C995&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">As more homes like these in Folsom, Calif., add solar power, electricity pricing becomes more complicated.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CaliforniaSolarPanels/cda216b3bcfe42e9bf425a353b24f812/photo">AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Small-scale solar power, also known as rooftop or distributed solar, has grown considerably in the U.S. over the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60341">past decade</a>. It provides electricity without emitting air pollutants or climate-warming greenhouse gases, and it meets local energy demand without requiring costly investments in transmission and distribution systems. </p>
<p>However, its expansion is making it harder for electric utilities and power grid managers to design fair and efficient retail electricity rates – the prices that households pay.</p>
<p>Under traditional electricity pricing, customers pay one charge per kilowatt-hour of electricity consumption that covers both the energy they use and the fixed costs of maintaining the grid. As more people adopt rooftop solar, they buy less energy from the grid. Fewer customers are left to shoulder utilities’ fixed costs, potentially making power more expensive for everyone. </p>
<p>This trend can drive more customers to leave the system and raise prices further – a scenario known as the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2017/09/25/three-ways-electric-utilities-can-avoid-a-death-spiral/?sh=46108d9b758d">utility death spiral</a>. One <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w25087">2018 study</a> calculated that two-thirds of recent electricity distribution cost increases at California’s three investor-owned utilities were associated with the growth of residential solar. </p>
<p>With abundant sun and solar-friendly policies, California has <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60341#:%7E:text=We%20estimate%20that%20the%20United,MW">36% of U.S. small-scale solar capacity</a>, much more than any other state. And the state is engaged in a heated debate over <a href="https://calmatters.org/california-divide/2023/07/electricity-bills/">pricing electricity</a> in ways designed to make energy less expensive for low-income households. </p>
<p>We study <a href="https://engineering.purdue.edu/Intel2Grid">energy markets</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=nKvcnXMAAAAJ&hl=en">public policy affecting energy and the environment</a>, and have analyzed various <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10177234">retail electricity rate structures</a> and their economic impacts on power producers and consumers. Our key finding is that an income-based, fixed-charge rate structure of the type that California is currently considering offers the most efficient and equitable solution – if it is designed correctly.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The California Legislature approved fixed-rate electricity charges, based on income, in 2022. Now, state utility regulators are weighing a proposal that would formalize them.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Two-part power bills</h2>
<p>The debate over fixed charges began in 2022, when the California Legislature <a href="https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/utilities/bill-would-end-california-experiment-with-income-based-electric-bills">enacted an energy bill</a> that ordered state regulators to study income-based fixed charges and decide whether to adopt them by July 1, 2024. Then the state’s three largest utilities – Southern California Edison, Pacific Gas and Electric, and San Diego Gas & Electric – <a href="https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/-/media/cpuc-website/divisions/energy-division/documents/demand-response/demand-response-workshops/advanced-der---demand-flexibility-management/joint-ious-opening-testimony-exhibit-1.pdf">submitted a proposal</a> to the state Public Utilities Commission in mid-2023 that would separate retail bills into two parts: a fixed charge and a variable charge. </p>
<p>The fixed charge would be a preset monthly fee, independent of energy usage but tied to income levels, so wealthier customers would <a href="https://calmatters.org/commentary/2024/02/utility-bills-reform-income-based/">pay a larger share of grid maintenance costs</a>. The variable charge would be based on the amount of electricity consumed and would cover the actual costs of electricity production and delivery. </p>
<p>Historically, these actual costs have typically ranged between <a href="http://www.caiso.com/documents/2022-annual-report-on-market-issues-and-performance-jul-11-2023.pdf">4 to 6 cents per kilowatt-hour</a>. Today, the average residential rate in California <a href="http://www.caiso.com/documents/2022-annual-report-on-market-issues-and-performance-jul-11-2023.pdf">often exceeds 30 cents per kilowatt-hour</a> because it covers fixed costs as well as electricity use.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A white utility truck drives toward a transformer tower framed by hills." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A Southern California Edison truck at a transformer tower in Sylmar, Calif. California utilities are burying thousands of miles of power lines in an effort to prevent a fraying grid from sparking wildfires.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CaliforniaWildfiresUtility/65c4885a6bde436d9126f7b12b9d8959/photo">AP Photo/Christian Monterrosa</a></span>
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<h2>Who benefits?</h2>
<p>A two-part billing system that separates fixed costs from variable usage charges offers potential benefits for both consumers and utilities.</p>
<p>For utilities, the fixed charge offers a stable revenue stream. The companies know how many households they serve, and they can plan on the fixed amounts that those households will pay each month. Households that go solar would still pay the fixed charge, since most of them draw electricity from the grid when the sun doesn’t shine. </p>
<p>This approach provides financial stability for the utility and access to the grid for all. Consumers would benefit because with a certain amount of income guaranteed, utilities could charge significantly less per kilowatt-hour for the actual electricity that households use. </p>
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<p>One significant concern is that if electricity costs less, people may use more of it, which could undermine efforts toward energy conservation and lead to an increase in emissions. In our view, the way to address this risk is by fine-tuning the two-part billing structure so that it covers only a portion of the utilities’ costs through fixed charges and incorporates the rest into the variable usage rates. </p>
<p>Put another way, combining a lower fixed charge with a higher variable charge would ensure that utilities can still cover their fixed costs effectively, while encouraging mindful energy use among consumers. Ensuring affordable electricity for consumers, fair cost recovery for utilities and overall fairness and efficiency in the energy market requires striking a delicate balance.</p>
<p>Another argument from critics, often labeled “<a href="https://www.instagram.com/reel/C3GDHaOJeIp/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==">energy socialism</a>,” asserts that higher-income households might end up <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/06/california-income-based-electricity-fees-2025">subsidizing excessive electricity use</a> by lower-income households under the income-based rate structure. In our view, this perception is inaccurate. </p>
<p>Wealthy households would pay more to maintain the grid, via larger fixed charges, than poorer households, but would not subsidize lower-income households’ energy use. All income groups would pay the same rate for each additional kilowatt-hour of electricity that they use. Decisions on energy use would remain economically driven, regardless of consumers’ income level. </p>
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<h2>Fixed fees are too big</h2>
<p>While our research supports California utilities’ approach in principle, we believe their proposal has shortcomings – notably in the proposed income brackets. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2023/06/20/california-electricity-bills-income-based/70331875007/">As currently framed</a>, households with annual incomes between US$28,000 and $69,000 would pay a fixed fee of $20 to $34 per month. Households earning between $69,000 and $180,000 would pay $51 to $73 per month, and those earning more than $180,000 would pay $85 to $128. </p>
<p>The middle-income bracket starts just above California’s <a href="https://statisticalatlas.com/state/California/Household-Income">median household income</a>. Consequently, nearly half of all California households could find themselves paying a substantial monthly fee – $51 to $73 – regardless of their actual electricity usage. </p>
<p>It could be hard to convince consumers to pay significant fixed fees for intangible services, especially middle-income residents who have either gone solar or may do so. Not surprisingly, the proposal has encountered considerable <a href="https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/05/08/the-income-graduated-fixed-charges-in-california-will-harm-customers-with-low-electric-bills/">pushback from the solar industry</a>. </p>
<h2>Finding the sweet spot</h2>
<p>In response to public outcry, California lawmakers recently introduced <a href="https://legiscan.com/CA/text/AB1999/id/2908602">Assembly Bill 1999</a>, which would replace the income-graduated fixed-charge requirement with fixed charges of $5 per month for low-income customers and up to $10 per month for others. In our view, this reaction goes too far in the other direction. </p>
<p>Capping fixed charges at such low levels would force utilities to hike their energy use rates to cover fixed costs – again, risking the death spiral scenario. Our research indicates that there is a <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10177234">range for the fixed charge</a> that would cover a reasonable share of utilities’ fixed costs, but is not high enough to burden consumers.</p>
<p>Without utility cost data, we can’t pinpoint this range precisely. However, based on <a href="https://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/Efile/G000/M520/K533/520533300.PDF">estimates of utilities’ costs</a>, we believe the caps proposed in AB 1999 are too low and could end up unfairly burdening those the bill aims to protect.</p>
<p>In our research, based on a hypothetical case study, we found a sweet spot in which fixed charges cover about 40% of utilities’ fixed costs. Charges at this level provide maximum benefit to consumers, although they reduce energy producers’ profits. </p>
<p>Our findings are similar to an <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10177234">alternative proposal</a> jointly presented by <a href="https://www.turn.org/">The Utility Reform Network</a>, a nonprofit consumer advocacy organization, and the <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/">Natural Resources Defense Council</a>, an environmental advocacy group. This plan suggests a two-part rate structure with an average fixed charge of about $36 per month. Low-income households would pay $5 per month, and those earning over $150,000 yearly would pay about $62.</p>
<p>We believe this proposal moves in the right direction by ensuring fair contributions to grid costs, while also encouraging efficient energy use and investment in clean energy infrastructure. It could act as a guide for other U.S. states searching for methods to balance utility fixed-cost recovery with fair pricing and continued growth of small-scale solar power.</p>
<p><em>This article has been updated to remove unsubstantiated information about the 2019 Saddleridge wildfire in California provided by AP in a photo caption.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217073/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>California is considering a controversial proposal for utilities to charge customers for electricity based partly on household income. Two scholars explain how this approach could benefit everyone.Yihsu Chen, Professor of Technology Management in Sustainability, University of California, Santa CruzAndrew L. Liu, Associate Professor of Industrial Engineering, Purdue UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2172322023-11-09T22:35:27Z2023-11-09T22:35:27ZMaine voters don’t like their electric utilities, but they balked at paying billions to buy them out<p>Frustration with electric utilities is universal today. Whether it’s concerns over <a href="https://www.maine.gov/mpuc/regulated-utilities/electricity/delivery-rates">high rates</a>, <a href="https://www.ktvu.com/news/aging-infrastructure-missing-data-and-backlog-of-repairs-continue-to-plague-pge-new-state-report-shows">poor service</a> or a combination of both, people are constantly looking for a better answer to the systems that serve them.</p>
<p>In the Nov. 7, 2023, election, voters in Maine had a chance to consider a new model for electricity service that would replace the state’s <a href="https://mainebeacon.com/cmp-versant-once-again-ranked-last-in-residential-customer-satisfaction-survey/">two widely unpopular private utilities</a>, but they balked in the face of multibillion-dollar cost projections. </p>
<p>This decision took the form of <a href="https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/upcoming/ballotquestionsnov2023.html">two ballot questions</a>. Question 3 asked whether voters wanted to create a new publicly owned power company, dubbed Pine Tree Power, to take over the existing assets of Maine’s two privately owned utilities. The related Question 1 asked whether consumer-owned electric utilities should have to get public approval before taking on more than US$1 billion in debt. Voters <a href="https://wgme.com/news/local/2023-election-results-for-maine">adopted Question 1 and soundly defeated Question 3</a>.</p>
<p>Municipal ownership of utilities is not new: Across the U.S., <a href="https://www.publicpower.org/public-power/stats-and-facts">about 2,000 communities have public power utilities</a>. In Nebraska, <a href="https://www.eia.gov/state/analysis.php?sid=NE">all electricity providers are publicly owned</a>.</p>
<p>But private utilities <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/pge-us-sanfrancisco-assets/pge-turns-down-san-franciscos-2-5-bln-offer-to-buy-assets-idUKL3N26W40A">often fight against public takeover attempts</a> – and Maine was no exception. The parent companies of Central Maine Power and Versant Power <a href="https://www.bangordailynews.com/2023/11/07/politics/maine-voters-reject-utility-takeover-after-heavy-spending-from-cmp-and-versant/">spent nearly $40 million</a> campaigning against the ballot measures, compared with $1.2 million on the pro-public power side.</p>
<p>At the University of Florida’s <a href="https://warrington.ufl.edu/public-utility-research-center/">Public Utility Research Center</a>, I work with utilities and regulators around the world to assess different ways of structuring power companies. Questions about what kinds of utilities best serve the public have <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-battle-over-control-of-pgande-means-for-us-utility-customers-126992">intensified</a> in recent years. As the Maine vote shows, people want different and sometimes competing things from their utility systems.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Maine utilities have struggled to modernize their networks and cope with increasing outages caused by climate-driven storms.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Three basic structures</h2>
<p>There are three basic ownership models for electric utilities. Investor-owned utilities, or IOUs, are owned by private shareholders, who might live next door or halfway around the world. Their stock is publicly traded, and their CEOs have a fiscal responsibility to shareholders as well as to serve their customers.</p>
<p>Municipally owned utilities, often known as munis, are owned locally, generally by the government of the city they serve. Some municipal utilities also serve customers in surrounding areas.</p>
<p>Cooperative utilities are owned entirely by their customers, much like housing or food co-ops. Initially, cooperatives tended to be located in more rural zones. Some of these areas, such as <a href="https://www.lcec.net/">southwest Florida</a>, have grown so rapidly that the term “rural cooperative” no longer applies. </p>
<p>Both munis and cooperatives operate as nonprofits. There is no consistent nationwide link between rates and ownership structure, but it is notable that five of the nine municipal and cooperative utilities in <a href="https://www.maine.gov/mpuc/regulated-utilities/electricity/delivery-rates">Maine</a> charge less then 15 cents per kilowatt-hour for residential customers, compared with 27 to 30 cents for Central Maine Power and Versant. This may have influenced voters’ perception that a municipal utility could provide power at lower prices. </p>
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<p>Municipal utilities do return a portion of their revenues to their investors, but a muni’s investor is the city it serves. According to the American Public Power Association, in 2020, public power utilities <a href="https://www.publicpower.org/system/files/documents/2023-Public-Power-Statistical-Report.pdf">returned a median of 6.1% of their revenues</a> to the communities they served. This return allows local governments to keep taxes lower than would otherwise be necessary to provide government services.</p>
<p>These utilities are also regulated in different ways. Investor-owned utilities are regulated by state <a href="https://www.naruc.org/">public utility commissions</a>, which oversee everything from what kinds of facilities to build and where to build them to how to reflect those costs in electricity rates. </p>
<p>Municipally owned and cooperative utilities are typically regulated on a limited basis by state public utility commissions – usually on matters of safety, reliability or the utilities’ impacts on the rest of the grid. Responsibility for municipal utility rates lies with either the city council or an independent local utility board. Cooperative utilities typically set their rates through a board elected by their customers.</p>
<h2>Maine’s approach</h2>
<p>The structure proposed in Maine was a fascinating hybrid case. Pine Tree Power’s ownership would have closely mirrored that of a municipal utility, governed by a board, but its rates would have been regulated by the Maine Public Utilities Commission. It is unclear what the board’s responsibilities would have been.</p>
<p>Further, since the public utility commission would have been required to set rates according to the actual costs of providing service, it is unclear whether Pine Tree Power would have been allowed to charge rates sufficient to return revenue to the state, similar to what most municipal utilities do. </p>
<p>There was intense debate about Pine Tree Power’s potential benefits. <a href="https://pinetreepower.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/review-and-assessment-of-lei-model-2020-1.pdf">One study</a> showed that shifting from private to public power would produce significant benefits, while <a href="https://maineaffordableenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Whitepaper-Analysis-of-Government-Controlled-Power-in-Maine.pdf">another</a> showed significant costs. A <a href="https://legislature.maine.gov/doc/4350">third study</a> forecast long-term benefits but short-term costs, primarily from buying out the state’s two private utilities. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558670/original/file-20231109-23-ksakcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A 1942 sign in east central Oklahoma announces that local power is provided at cost by a cooperative utility." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558670/original/file-20231109-23-ksakcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558670/original/file-20231109-23-ksakcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558670/original/file-20231109-23-ksakcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558670/original/file-20231109-23-ksakcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558670/original/file-20231109-23-ksakcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558670/original/file-20231109-23-ksakcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558670/original/file-20231109-23-ksakcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Rural electrification was a central element of President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal. The 1936 Rural Electrification Act authorized low-interest federal loans to local cooperatives that would build and maintain power plants and lines and charge reasonable fees for membership.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.okhistory.org/publications/enc/entry.php?entry=RU007">Encyclopedia of Oklahoma History and Culture</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>In a municipalization, the cost to buy out the private utility strongly influences how much net benefit will result – and it’s not as simple as writing a check for the book value of the assets. Typically, price determination is a quasi-judicial process overseen by an arbitrator. </p>
<p>For example, when Winter Park, Florida, took control of the local assets of its power provider in 2005, the city estimated the value of the physical assets at $15.8 million. The eventual purchase price determined by an arbitrator was <a href="https://doee.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/ddoe/publication/attachments/An%20Analysis%20of%20Municipalization%20and%20Related%20Utility%20Practices.pdf">just over $42 million</a>. The city also incurred legal and technical support costs. Winter Park issued almost $49 million in bonds to cover all of the costs of the acquisition.</p>
<h2>Maine’s cost safeguard</h2>
<p>One curious element of the Maine vote that could have future impacts is the voter approval process under Question 1, which was adopted. Typically, when a community municipalizes its electric power, voters would consider an initial referendum authorizing the government to explore the possibility of purchasing the private utility’s assets, and then a second referendum when the costs of the purchase were known. </p>
<p>The second vote would be more specific – something like, “Should the City issue bonds in the amount of $200 million to finalize the purchase of the assets of XYZ Corp. for the express purpose of establishing a municipal utility?”</p>
<p>This approach is expensive to administer, since it requires two votes, and a defeat at either stage can stop the acquisition process. But it also safeguards voters, since it ensures that they have information about how much municipalizing their utility will cost before they vote to approve it.</p>
<p>Cost estimates for buying out Maine’s utilities and creating Pine Tree Power <a href="https://www.mainepublic.org/politics/2023-10-05/heres-everything-we-know-about-the-referendum-to-replace-cmp-and-versant-with-pine-tree-power">ranged from $5 billion to $13.5 billion</a>, and buyout opponents – including Maine Gov. Janet Mills – <a href="https://www.utilitydive.com/news/maine-votes-takeover-cmp-versant-pine-tree-power/696078/">strongly emphasized the potential price tag</a>. However, the fact that voters approved Question 1 might actually make a future municipalization vote more likely to pass, since voters now know they will have a safeguard of knowing the purchase price prior to their final approval. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/Cw5XjbBMfXq/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link\u0026igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<p>Ultimately, in my view, there is no best model for utility ownership and operation. One strength of private utilities is that they are subject to clear, consistent oversight by professional utility regulators. For their part, municipal and cooperative utilities offer local control and greater flexibility to address local concerns. However, all types of power companies <a href="https://www.powermag.com/public-power-and-ious-the-same-but-different/">face daunting challenges</a>, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/electricity-grid-cybersecurity-will-be-expensive-who-will-pay-and-how-much-114137">grid cybersecurity</a>, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/bidens-proposed-tenfold-increase-in-solar-power-would-remake-the-us-electricity-system-167605">clean energy transition</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/green-jobs-are-booming-but-too-few-employees-have-sustainability-skills-to-fill-them-here-are-4-ways-to-close-the-gap-193953">hiring and retaining skilled workers</a>.</p>
<p>As I see it, a community’s best strategy is to choose a model that has strengths residents value, and whose weaknesses are less important or can be mitigated in other ways. While Maine voters may not love the system they have, their fear of the unknown was apparently stronger.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217232/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Theodore Kury is the Director of Energy Studies at the University of Florida’s Public Utility Research Center, which is sponsored in part by the Florida electric and gas utilities and the Florida Public Service Commission. In 2018, he was principal investigator on a grant from the Jessie Ball duPont Fund to study the value of municipal utilities in a changing marketplace. That work informs portions of this piece. However, the Center maintains sole editorial control of this and any other work.</span></em></p>Power companies can be publicly or privately owned and may report to corporate boards, local governments or co-op members. But there’s no one best way to deliver electricity reliably and affordably.Theodore J. Kury, Director of Energy Studies, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2139992023-10-17T12:20:30Z2023-10-17T12:20:30ZWhat is a virtual power plant? An energy expert explains<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553720/original/file-20231013-23-zo06aw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C8%2C5964%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A large-scale battery storage system in Long Beach, Calif., provides renewable electricity during peak demand periods.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/weikko-wirta-aes-southland-director-of-operations-and-vice-news-photo/1243414725">Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After nearly two decades of stagnation, U.S. electricity demand <a href="https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/">is surging</a>, driven by growing numbers of electric cars, data centers and air conditioners in a warming climate. But traditional power plants that generate electricity from <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=54559">coal</a>, <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=55439">natural gas</a> or <a href="https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/decommissioning-status-for-shutdown-us-plants">nuclear energy</a> are retiring faster than new ones are being built in this country. Most <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=57340">new supply</a> is coming from wind and solar farms, whose output varies with the weather.</p>
<p>That’s left power companies seeking new ways to balance supply and demand. One option they’re turning to is virtual power plants. </p>
<p>These aren’t massive facilities generating electricity at a single site. Rather, they are aggregations of electricity producers, consumers and storers – collectively known as distributed energy resources – that grid managers can call on as needed. </p>
<p>Some of these sources, such as batteries, may deliver <a href="https://theconversation.com/these-3-energy-storage-technologies-can-help-solve-the-challenge-of-moving-to-100-renewable-electricity-161564">stored electric power</a>. Others may be big electricity consumers, such as factories, whose owners have agreed to cut back their power use when demand is high, freeing up energy for other customers. Virtual power sources typically are quicker to site and build, and can be cleaner and cheaper to operate, than new power plants. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/-KQEt5QqPXU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Virtual power plants are more resilient against service outages than large, centralized generating stations because they distribute energy resources across large areas.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>A growing resource</h2>
<p>Virtual power plants aren’t new. The U.S. Department of Energy <a href="https://liftoff.energy.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/20230911-Pathways-to-Commercial-Liftoff-Virtual-Power-Plants_update.pdf">estimates</a> that there are already 30 to 60 gigawatts of them in operation today. A gigawatt is 1 billion watts – roughly the output of <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/how-much-power-1-gigawatt">2.5 million solar photovoltaic panels</a> or one large nuclear reactor.</p>
<p>Most of these virtual power plants are industrial customers that have agreed to reduce demand when conditions are tight. But as growing numbers of homes and small businesses add rooftop solar panels, batteries and electric cars, these energy customers can become not only consumers but also suppliers of power to the grid. </p>
<p>For example, homeowners can charge up their batteries with rooftop solar when it’s sunny, and discharge power back to the grid in the evening when demand is high and prices sometimes spike. </p>
<p>As smart thermostats and water heaters, rooftop solar panels and batteries enable more customers to participate in them, DOE estimates that virtual power plants could <a href="https://liftoff.energy.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/20230911-Pathways-to-Commercial-Liftoff-Virtual-Power-Plants_update.pdf">triple in scale by 2030</a>. That could cover roughly half of the new capacity that the U.S. will need to cover growing demand and replace retiring older power plants. This growth would help to limit the cost of building new wind and solar farms and gas plants. </p>
<p>And because virtual power plants are located where electricity is consumed, they’ll ease the burden on aging transmission systems that have <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/21/why-its-so-hard-to-build-new-electrical-transmission-lines-in-the-us.html">struggled to add new lines</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553740/original/file-20231013-26-wjqdxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A hand points to a lighted electronic panel." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553740/original/file-20231013-26-wjqdxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553740/original/file-20231013-26-wjqdxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553740/original/file-20231013-26-wjqdxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553740/original/file-20231013-26-wjqdxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553740/original/file-20231013-26-wjqdxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553740/original/file-20231013-26-wjqdxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553740/original/file-20231013-26-wjqdxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A battery display panel inside a model home in Menifee, Calif., where 200 houses in a development are all-electric, equipped with solar panels and batteries and linked by a microgrid that can power the community during outages.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/scott-hensen-vice-president-of-floor-planning-for-kb-home-news-photo/1244677704">Watchara Phomicinda/MediaNews Group/The Press-Enterprise via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>New roles for power customers</h2>
<p>Virtual power plants scramble the roles of electricity producers and consumers. Traditional power plants generate electricity at central locations and transmit it along power lines to consumers. For the grid to function, supply and demand must be <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-curtailment-an-electricity-market-expert-explains-185279">precisely balanced at all times</a>.</p>
<p>Customer demand is typically assumed to be a given that fluctuates with the weather but follows a fairly predictable pattern over the course of a day. To satisfy it, grid operators dispatch a mix of <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/?id=B">baseload sources</a> that operate continuously, such as coal and nuclear plants, and more flexible sources such as gas and hydropower that can modulate their output quickly as needed.</p>
<p>Output from wind and solar farms rises and falls during the day, so other sources must operate more flexibly to keep supply and demand balanced. Still, the basic idea is that massive facilities produce power for millions of passive consumers. </p>
<p>Virtual power plants upend this model by embracing the fact that consumers can control their electricity demand. Industrial consumers have long <a href="https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/past-present-and-future-us-utility">found ways to flex their operations</a>, limiting demand when power supplies are tight in return for incentives or discounted rates.</p>
<p>Now, thermostats and water heaters that communicate with the grid can let households modulate their demand too. For example, <a href="https://neep.org/blog/smart-energy-home-blog-series-smart-water-heaters">smart electric water heaters</a> can heat water mostly when power is abundant and cheap, and limit demand when power is scarce. </p>
<p>In Vermont, Green Mountain Power is <a href="https://greenmountainpower.com/news/gmps-request-to-expand-customer-access-to-cost-effective-home-energy-storage-is-approved/">offering its customers incentives</a> to install batteries that will provide power back to the grid when it’s needed most. In Texas, where I live, deadly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102106">blackouts in 2021</a> highlighted the importance of bolstering our isolated power grid. Now, utilities here are using <a href="https://www.utilitydive.com/news/tesla-virtual-power-plants-vpp-ercot-puc-texas-grid/691713/">Tesla Powerwalls</a> to help turn homes into virtual power sources. South Australia aims to connect 50,000 homes with solar and batteries to build that country’s <a href="https://www.energymining.sa.gov.au/consumers/solar-and-batteries/south-australias-virtual-power-plant">largest virtual power plant</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553749/original/file-20231013-15-n4pyp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People wait at a propane gas station, bundled in heavy clothes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553749/original/file-20231013-15-n4pyp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553749/original/file-20231013-15-n4pyp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553749/original/file-20231013-15-n4pyp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553749/original/file-20231013-15-n4pyp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553749/original/file-20231013-15-n4pyp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553749/original/file-20231013-15-n4pyp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553749/original/file-20231013-15-n4pyp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People line up to refill propane tanks in Houston after a severe winter storm caused electricity blackouts and a catastrophic failure of Texas’ power grid in February 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-line-up-at-a-propane-gas-station-to-refill-their-news-photo/1231242378">Go Nakamura/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Virtual power, real challenges</h2>
<p>Virtual power plants aren’t a panacea. Many customers are reluctant to give up even temporary control of their thermostats, or have a delay when charging their electric car. Some consumers are also concerned about the <a href="https://smartgrid.ieee.org/bulletins/july-2018/security-and-privacy-concerns-in-smart-metering-the-cyber-physical-aspect">security and privacy of smart meters</a>. It remains to be seen how many customers will sign up for these emerging programs and how effectively their operators will modulate supply and demand.</p>
<p>There also are challenges at the business end. It’s a lot harder to manage millions of consumers than dozens of power plants. Virtual power plant operators can overcome that challenge by rewarding customers for allowing them to flex their supply and demand in a coordinated fashion. </p>
<p>As electricity demand rises to meet the needs of growing economies and replace fossil fuel-burning cars and furnaces, and reliance on renewable resources increases, grid managers will need all the flexibility they can get to balance the variable output of wind and solar generation. Virtual power plants could help reshape electric power into an industry that’s more nimble, efficient and responsive to changing conditions and customers’ needs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213999/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Cohan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Some power plants don’t have massive smokestacks or cooling towers – or even a central site.Daniel Cohan, Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rice UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2123232023-08-28T12:03:50Z2023-08-28T12:03:50ZShutting off power to reduce wildfire risk on windy days isn’t a simple decision – an energy expert explains the trade-offs electric utilities face<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544861/original/file-20230826-13578-tazxbk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C13%2C2964%2C1944&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Power lines spark a large number of U.S. wildfires.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CaliforniaWildfirePowerLines/9aba82d3b88e4d84909d4ff9abbd0fe2/photo">AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Maui County is <a href="https://npr.brightspotcdn.com/b3/da/139f2c7445d6b3e512b528b56252/6932642409.pdf">suing Hawaiian Electric</a>, <a href="https://www.mauicounty.gov/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=12759">claiming the utility was negligent</a> for not shutting off power as strong winds hit the island in the hours before the <a href="https://theconversation.com/mauis-deadly-wildfires-burn-through-lahaina-its-a-reminder-of-the-growing-risk-to-communities-that-once-seemed-safe-211317">city of Lahaina burned</a>. While the cause of the devastating Aug. 8, 2023, wildfire is still under investigation, forecasters had <a href="https://twitter.com/Maui_EMA/status/1688282225983598592">warned that powerful winds</a> were expected, and West Maui had exceptionally dry conditions that put it at high risk for wildfires.</em></p>
<p><em>In many cases, however, deciding to shut off power isn’t as simple is as it might sound. We asked <a href="https://ae.gatech.edu/directory/person/timothy-charles-lieuwen">Tim Lieuwen</a>, executive director of the <a href="https://research.gatech.edu/energy">Strategic Energy Institute</a> at Georgia Tech, about the risks and trade-offs utilities have to weigh in deciding how to respond during fire-risk conditions.</em></p>
<h2>Why are utilities so often suspected in fires?</h2>
<p>There are a lot of ways that utility lines, particularly high-voltage lines, can spark fires.</p>
<p>If tree branches are too close to the lines, electricity can arc between the line and the tree. Old equipment can set off sparks. If the weather gets really hot, power lines can sag and touch dry grass or trees. If there’s a lot of wind, that can push a power line into tree branches or damage equipment.</p>
<p>All of those can and have been fire-starters. </p>
<p>In California, a state audit found that electrical power caused <a href="https://www.auditor.ca.gov/pdfs/reports/2021-117.pdf">10% of all wildfires</a> and was responsible for nearly 20% of all acres burned from 2016 to 2020. Those were also some of the most destructive fires in state history – including the <a href="https://www.fire.ca.gov/our-impact/remembering-the-camp-fire">2018 fire</a> that destroyed the town of Paradise. <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/06/16/879008760/pg-e-pleads-guilty-on-2018-california-camp-fire-our-equipment-started-that-fire">Pacific Gas & Electric pleaded guilty</a> to 84 counts of involuntary manslaughter in that case and one felony count of unlawfully starting a fire.</p>
<h2>Do utilities have a responsibility for fire safety?</h2>
<p>That’s the question at the heart of litigation and debates.</p>
<p>Public utilities’ obligations can vary state to state. In general, regulated utilities have a duty to <a href="https://www.energy.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2019-06/Fact_Sheet_California_Energy_Governing_Institutions.pdf">provide safe, affordable</a>, <a href="https://www.hawaiianelectric.com/documents/products_and_services/customer_renewable_programs/20210503_customer_energy_resources_for_hawaii.pdf">reliable power</a> to their customers. That can mean making tough choices.</p>
<p>Let’s say it’s really windy, dry and hot – ideal conditions for spreading a wildfire. The utility <a href="https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/industries-and-topics/wildfires">can shut off power</a>, but that means people don’t have air conditioning in what may be extreme heat. People with health issues – who might need oxygen, for example – might not be able to run essential medical devices. </p>
<p>Electricity is critical infrastructure and a foundational bedrock to many other services. Cellphone service can be lost <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/article/Why-cell-phones-failed-in-PG-E-outages-and-how-14806460.php">if transmission towers lack backup power</a>, so when power goes out in a disaster, people could lose access to crucial information. Water pumps used in wells and water treatment also need electricity. Many <a href="https://www.staradvertiser.com/2023/08/18/hawaii-news/maui-water-pumps-can-work-without-heco-power/">municipal water systems have backup generators</a> to keep water flowing, but small water systems might not.</p>
<p>Texas learned about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102106">cascading dependencies</a> during the <a href="https://theconversation.com/two-years-after-its-historic-deep-freeze-texas-is-increasingly-vulnerable-to-cold-snaps-and-there-are-more-solutions-than-just-building-power-plants-198494">deep freeze in February 2021</a>. When power systems failed, the pumps used to send gas and oil through pipelines went out. That meant power plants weren’t getting the gas they needed to operate.</p>
<p>Utilities have to balance the risk of keeping power on with the risks created by shutting power off.</p>
<h2>What can utilities do to manage fire risk?</h2>
<p>Utilities can make sure they’re careful about trimming trees, cutting grasses and removing other dry fuel that can ignite near power lines.</p>
<p>In really high-risk areas, <a href="https://www.pge.com/en_US/residential/customer-service/other-services/electric-undergrounding-program/electric-undergrounding-program.page">they can move their lines underground</a>. There’s <a href="https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/about-cpuc/divisions/safety-policy-division/risk-assessment-and-safety-analytics/electric-undergrounding-sb-884">an effort to do that in California</a>, but estimates show it would be <a href="https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/industries-and-topics/electrical-energy/infrastructure/electric-reliability/undergrounding-program-description">prohibitively expensive</a> to take all <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-023-01306-8">high-voltage lines underground</a>.</p>
<p>To give you a sense of the amount of line we’re talking about, in 2021, California utilities reported having <a href="https://www.auditor.ca.gov/pdfs/reports/2021-117.pdf">nearly 40,000 miles</a> of bare power lines in areas at high risk of wildfires.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Powerlines along a rugged mountainside with a lake and forest in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544858/original/file-20230826-28-hbu0ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544858/original/file-20230826-28-hbu0ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544858/original/file-20230826-28-hbu0ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544858/original/file-20230826-28-hbu0ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544858/original/file-20230826-28-hbu0ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544858/original/file-20230826-28-hbu0ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544858/original/file-20230826-28-hbu0ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">High-voltage power lines, like this one in North Cascades National Park in Washington state, often cross rugged terrain in areas in which it isn’t easy to bury a power line, or for firefighters to reach.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/diablo-lake-trail-north-cascades-national-park-royalty-free-image/1546932853">Philippe Gerber/Moment via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Utilities are constantly actively looking for fire risks, whether it’s replacing old transformers or upgrading lines that might be overloaded or clearing away foliage.</p>
<p>Technology also helps identify risks. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/hawaii-wildfires-maui-electricity-power-utilities-c46a106db3c5019ac835ddcb01fde25f">Sensors can detect sparks</a> on a power line. Newer tools being tested aim to <a href="https://www.dallasnews.com/business/technology/2019/12/03/texas-am-professors-tech-aims-to-detect-potential-for-wildfires-before-they-happen/">detect variations in electrical current</a> that could indicate overloaded lines before sparks occur. On hot days, being better able to manage the distribution of power flow of electricity through power lines that are overloaded and potentially overheating could also help avoid problems along power lines.</p>
<p>Another solution is making architectural changes to the electricity grid, where rather than relying on large centralized power stations with high power, long distance transmission lines, power is produced closer to the consumer, ranging from community, to neighborhood, to one’s own home.</p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/solar-rooftop-potential">rooftop solar</a> and <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/community-solar-basics">community solar projects</a> can help reduce the need to add more high-voltage transmissions lines to carry power long distances and through high-risk wildlands. The architecture of the grid is rapidly evolving as both rooftop and community solar appear.</p>
<h2>How do utilities balance the risks?</h2>
<p>It’s easy to oversimplify this. Every solution, every choice, has an impact. You can shut off power during windstorms and largely eliminate the fire risk from power infrastructure. But it also has real consequences for people’s businesses, livelihoods and potentially their health and safety.</p>
<p>As an engineer, I can advise on the risks and develop solutions to minimize those risk through better detection, better equipment and by minimizing the need for lots of electrical lines. However, how to balance those risks and, in particular, address the issue of when a utility should shut off the power, is ultimately a societal choice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212323/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim C. Lieuwen serves on the Advisory Council of EPRI, as well as governing or advisory boards of Oak Ridge National Lab, Pacific Northwest National Lab, and National Renewable Energy Lab</span></em></p>Losing power also has real consequences for people’s businesses, livelihoods and potentially their health and safety.Tim C. Lieuwen, Executive Director of the Strategic Energy Institute, Georgia Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2067372023-06-20T12:29:12Z2023-06-20T12:29:12ZSaving lives from extreme heat: Lessons from the deadly 2021 Pacific Northwest heat wave<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531486/original/file-20230612-248839-sft9gx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C17%2C3918%2C2598&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Volunteers pick up water to deliver to homeless people during a 2021 heat wave.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/NorthwestHeatWave/5811cb2415d048d584b0162ec7011a61/photo">AP Photo/Nathan Howard</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The heat dome that descended upon the Pacific Northwest in late June 2021 met a population radically unprepared for it.</p>
<p>Almost <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/25/us/western-heat-wave.html">two-thirds of households earning US$50,000 or less</a> and <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/seattle-is-a-lot-more-air-conditioned-than-it-used-to-be/">70% of rented houses</a> in Washington’s King, Pierce and Snohomish counties had no air conditioning. In Spokane, <a href="https://www.gonzaga.edu/center-for-climate-society-environment/our-work/climate-resilience-project/beat-the-heat/survey">nearly one-quarter of survey respondents</a> didn’t have in-home air conditioning, and among those who did, 1 in 5 faced significant, often financial, barriers to using it.</p>
<p>Imagine having no way to cool your home as temperatures spiked to <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/extremes/scec/reports/20220210-Washington-Maximum-Temperature.pdf">108 degrees Fahrenheit (43 Celsius), and 120 F (49 C) in some places</a>. People in <a href="https://www.epa.gov/heatislands">urban heat islands</a> – areas with few trees and lots of asphalt and concrete that can absorb and radiate heat – saw temperatures as much as <a href="https://repository.gonzaga.edu/ccsereach/2/">14 F (7.8 C) higher</a> than that. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/10/world/canada/canadian-wildfire-british-columbia.html">Extreme heat disasters</a> like this are becoming <a href="https://theconversation.com/dangerous-urban-heat-exposure-has-tripled-since-the-1980s-with-the-poor-most-at-risk-169153">increasingly common</a> in regions where high heat used to be rare. Blackouts during severe heat waves can also leave residents who believe they are protected because they have in home air conditioners at unexpected risk. To prepare, cities, neighborhoods, companies and individuals can take steps now that can reduce the harm.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man and two women sit in the shade while kids play in a fountain. The man has cool cloth on his head and cold soda in his hand. June is nicknamed 'Juneuary' in Seattle for its clouds and usual chill, but that isn't what residents endured in June 2021." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531491/original/file-20230612-16-c47rc9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531491/original/file-20230612-16-c47rc9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531491/original/file-20230612-16-c47rc9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531491/original/file-20230612-16-c47rc9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531491/original/file-20230612-16-c47rc9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531491/original/file-20230612-16-c47rc9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531491/original/file-20230612-16-c47rc9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Designing shady spots for sitting and public fountains for kids to play in, like these people found in Seattle on June 27, 2021, can provide some relief from extreme heat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/PacificNorthwestHeatWave/176e2e948dea47efbc9753259e0d27f4/photo">AP Photo/John Froschauer</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In a <a href="https://cig.uw.edu/resources/special-reports/in-the-hot-seat-saving-lives-from-extreme-heat-in-washington-state/">new report</a>, written with colleagues at universities and the Washington State Department of Health and released ahead of the two-year anniversary of the heat wave, we show how municipal planning agencies, parks departments, local health agencies, community-based organizations like churches and nonprofits, multiple state agencies, hospitals, public health professionals and emergency response personnel, as well as individuals and families, can play a vital role in reducing risk.</p>
<p>The 2021 heat dome was Washington’s deadliest weather disaster on record. It contributed to <a href="https://cig.uw.edu/resources/special-reports/in-the-hot-seat-saving-lives-from-extreme-heat-in-washington-state/">441 deaths in the state between June 27 and July 3</a>, our research shows. Medical systems were overwhelmed. </p>
<p>There are numerous ways to avoid this deadly of an outcome in the future. Many emerge from thinking about extreme heat as long-term risk reduction, not just short-term emergency response.</p>
<h2>Designing environments for cooling</h2>
<p>Greening the urban environment can reduce heat exposure and save lives. For example, planting trees and building shade structures where people are most exposed to heat can provide local relief from extreme temperatures. That includes providing shade at buildings without air conditioning and exposed public spaces, such as bus stops and parks.</p>
<p>Planting rooftops with vegetation, known as <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0038092X12002447">green roofs</a>, or painting them white so they reflect heat rather than absorb it, can also <a href="https://www.epa.gov/heatislands/using-green-roofs-reduce-heat-islands">lower roof temperatures by tens of degrees</a>. Used widely, they can reduce an entire neighborhood’s heat island effect by several degrees.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531162/original/file-20230609-21291-onib7f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An illustration showing a cross-section of a region, with a city and rural areas, and two chart lines showing day and night temperatures. The temps rise over areas with lots of concrete and asphalt, particularly dense areas that hold the heat." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531162/original/file-20230609-21291-onib7f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531162/original/file-20230609-21291-onib7f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531162/original/file-20230609-21291-onib7f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531162/original/file-20230609-21291-onib7f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531162/original/file-20230609-21291-onib7f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531162/original/file-20230609-21291-onib7f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531162/original/file-20230609-21291-onib7f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Developed areas tend to heat up more than natural landscapes, such as parks. That can increase heat stress on humans.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://cig.uw.edu/resources/special-reports/in-the-hot-seat-saving-lives-from-extreme-heat-in-washington-state/">Climate Impacts Group/University of Washington, adapted from EPA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Efforts like these, along with tree planting campaigns in public parks and rights of way, and ordinances requiring shade trees for parking lots and private development projects, can transform the urban heat landscape.</p>
<h2>Reaching vulnerable people</h2>
<p>When heat waves are coming, culturally nuanced outreach efforts focused on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101392">the most vulnerable populations</a> – and involving sources they trust – can save lives.</p>
<p>Government heat advisories in traditional media like radio, newspapers, TV and the internet have been shown to have limited success in changing people’s behavior. In the <a href="https://www.gonzaga.edu/center-for-climate-society-environment/our-work/climate-resilience-project/beat-the-heat/survey">2022 Spokane survey</a>, 88% of respondents indicated they were unlikely to leave their home during an extreme heat event to go to a cooling center, for example. The reasons varied, including misperception of personal risk, fear of leaving homes unoccupied, not wanting to leave pets behind and mistrust of government. </p>
<p>Culturally specific resources led by community-based organizations can get around the government trust issue and can be tailored to the local population. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman in a wheel chair leans back with cooling clothes on her forehead and chest during the 2021 Pacific Northwest heat wave. The heat wave killed hundreds of people." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531487/original/file-20230612-29-i0013b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531487/original/file-20230612-29-i0013b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531487/original/file-20230612-29-i0013b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531487/original/file-20230612-29-i0013b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531487/original/file-20230612-29-i0013b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531487/original/file-20230612-29-i0013b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531487/original/file-20230612-29-i0013b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A woman puts cold cloths on her forehead at a cooling center in Portland, Ore., on June 27, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/tracy-wallace-puts-ice-cold-cloths-on-her-forehead-and-news-photo/1233728368">Alisha Jucevic for The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That might mean opening cooling centers in churches or common community gathering places and launching heat awareness campaigns driven by trusted community messengers. New York City developed a door-to-door wellness check program that <a href="https://climate.cityofnewyork.us/initiatives/be-a-buddy/">uses neighborhood volunteers</a> to check on elderly and other at-risk residents.</p>
<p>Under this model, churches, libraries, community centers and community nonprofits take center stage, supported with resources from local and state governments. Baltimore developed more than a dozen “<a href="https://www.baltimoresustainability.org/baltimore-resiliency-hub-program/">resiliency hubs</a>” using this model to provide water, cooling, power for charging devices and other support.</p>
<p>Community-based organizations can also direct energy assistance to lower-income community members. In Spokane, one community organization created a “<a href="https://www.snapwa.org/cool">cooling fund</a>” to provide portable air conditioners to those who cannot afford one. </p>
<p>Our report lays out <a href="https://cig.uw.edu/resources/special-reports/in-the-hot-seat-saving-lives-from-extreme-heat-in-washington-state/">many other strategies</a> to achieve long-term heat risk reduction.</p>
<h2>Landlords, employers and utilities have a role</h2>
<p>Addressing extreme heat over the long term requires the participation of many other groups not tasked with protecting public health.</p>
<p>For example, landlords of multifamily housing and rental homes have an important role to play. After the 2021 heat wave, <a href="https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2022R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/SB1536/Enrolled">Oregon passed a law</a> prohibiting landlords from restricting tenants’ ability to install window air conditioners.</p>
<p>Employers of people who work outdoors, or indoors in buildings without air conditioning, can protect workers by allowing more breaks, providing shade and water and adjusting work hours to avoid heat exposure – although concerns persist about rule enforcement and reduced pay. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A worker standing in shade holds a " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531488/original/file-20230612-23-wcvsxn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531488/original/file-20230612-23-wcvsxn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531488/original/file-20230612-23-wcvsxn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531488/original/file-20230612-23-wcvsxn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531488/original/file-20230612-23-wcvsxn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531488/original/file-20230612-23-wcvsxn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531488/original/file-20230612-23-wcvsxn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Outdoor workers may face extreme heat for hours on end. More frequent breaks and providing shade can help when work can’t stop.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/construction-workers-guide-traffic-along-hot-pavement-on-news-photo/1227714772">Jahi Chikwendiu/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Utilities can make a difference by ensuring the power stays on during high-demand periods, particularly in vulnerable neighborhoods, and working with communities to reduce costs for vulnerable people that may prevent them from using air conditioning.</p>
<p>Ultimately, reducing extreme heat vulnerability through multiple strategies is crucial because lives are at stake.</p>
<h2>Coordination is essential</h2>
<p>Extreme heat waves are forecast to <a href="https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/6/">occur more frequently</a> across the globe as greenhouse gas emissions continue to warm the climate. Between 1971 and 2021, Washington state experienced an average of three extreme heat days per year. By the 2050s, climate models project that will rise to between 17 and 30 extreme heat days per year – <a href="https://cig.uw.edu/resources/special-reports/in-the-hot-seat-saving-lives-from-extreme-heat-in-washington-state/">a fivefold increase</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Five maps show observed temperature change and much higher changes by mid and late century, particularly with high-emissions scenarios." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531244/original/file-20230611-23-w48erd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531244/original/file-20230611-23-w48erd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=703&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531244/original/file-20230611-23-w48erd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=703&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531244/original/file-20230611-23-w48erd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=703&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531244/original/file-20230611-23-w48erd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=884&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531244/original/file-20230611-23-w48erd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=884&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531244/original/file-20230611-23-w48erd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=884&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Annual average temperatures are projected to increase, with proportionally greater changes at higher latitudes. The top map shows observed temperature changes from 1986-2016 relative to 1901-1960. The lower maps show projected changes for mid-century (2036–2065) and late century (2070–2099) depending on high and low greenhouse gas emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://toolkit.climate.gov/image/515">Fourth National Climate Assessment/NOAA NCEI/CICS-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the end, saving lives from extreme heat is a complicated challenge requiring coordination across multiple levels of government, agencies and the civic and private sectors.</p>
<p>Some cities, including Phoenix, are <a href="https://www.phoenix.gov/heat">experimenting with heat offices</a> tasked with this coordination. But individuals have an important role to play as well. </p>
<p>In addition to knowing how to protect themselves, their loved ones and their neighbors, individuals can add their voices to the rising chorus calling on all levels of government and the private and civic sectors to take urgent steps to reduce heat risk.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206737/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Vogel receives funding from Washington state that supports the University of Washington's Climate Impacts Group to conduct data modeling and provide technical assistance on climate impact analysis to Washington communities, businesses, and governments.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brian G. Henning receives funding from Gonzaga Center for Climate, Society, and the Environment to support teaching, scholarship, consulting, and capacity building. </span></em></p>A new report lays out steps communities can take to help their residents survive heat waves as the risk of dangerous temperatures rises.Jason Vogel, Interim Director, Climate Impacts Group, University of WashingtonBrian G. Henning, Professor of Philosophy and Environmental Studies, Gonzaga UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1965332022-12-15T13:06:46Z2022-12-15T13:06:46ZWhat social media regulation could look like: Think of pipelines, not utilities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500812/original/file-20221213-24281-u7oobq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=44%2C17%2C5946%2C3970&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is the law coming for Twitter, Meta and other social media outlets?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/gavel-hammer-with-smartphone-on-blue-background-royalty-free-image/1351965013">new look casting/iStock via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter, and his controversial <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/12/business/musk-twitter-fauci.html">statements</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/dec/13/techscape-twitter-files-elon-musk">decisions</a> as its owner, have fueled a new wave of calls for <a href="https://www.bostonherald.com/2022/12/04/elizabeth-warren-will-work-with-lindsey-graham-to-regulate-twitter-she-says/">regulating social media companies</a>. Elected officials and policy scholars have argued for years that companies like Twitter and Facebook – now Meta – have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/13/opinion/elon-musk-twitter.html">immense power</a> over public discussions and can use that power to <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-net/2017/manipulating-social-media-undermine-democracy">elevate some views and suppress others</a>. Critics also accuse the companies of <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/06/tech/instagram-fine-teens-privacy/index.html">failing to protect users’ personal data</a> and <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-knows-instagram-is-toxic-for-teen-girls-company-documents-show-11631620739">downplaying harmful impacts</a> of using social media.</p>
<p>As an economist who studies the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=yxN_35oAAAAJ">regulation of utilities</a> such as electricity, gas and water, I wonder what that regulation would look like. There are many regulatory models in use around the world, but few seem to fit the realities of social media. However, observing how these models work can provide valuable insights.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ItAseX1x_9o?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Families across the U.S. are suing social media companies over policies that they argue affected their children’s mental health.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Not really economic regulation</h2>
<p>The central ideas behind economic regulation – safe, reliable service at fair and reasonable rates – have been around for <a href="https://mises.org/library/great-depression-14th-century">centuries</a>. The U.S. has a rich history of regulation since the turn of the 20th century. </p>
<p>The first federal economic regulator in the U.S. was the Interstate Commerce Commission, which was created by the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/interstate-commerce-act">Interstate Commerce Act of 1887</a>. This law required railroads, which were <a href="https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/united-states-history-primary-source-timeline/rise-of-industrial-america-1876-1900/railroads-in-late-19th-century/">growing dramatically</a> and becoming a highly influential industry, to operate safely and fairly and to charge reasonable rates for service. </p>
<p>The Interstate Commerce Act reflected concerns that railroads – which were monopolies in the regions that they served and provided an essential service – could behave in any manner they chose and charge any price they wanted. This power threatened people who relied on rail service, such as <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1873/11/the-railroads-and-the-farms/630996/">farmers sending crops to market</a>. Other industries, such as bus transportation and trucking, would later be subjected to similar regulation.</p>
<p>Individual social media companies don’t really fit this traditional mold of economic regulation. They are not monopolies, as we can see from people leaving Twitter and jumping to alternatives like <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/12/06/business/after-trying-two-leading-twitter-alternatives-heres-what-we-found/">Mastodon and Post</a>.</p>
<p>While internet access is fast becoming an essential service in the information age, it’s debatable whether social media platforms provide essential services. And companies like Facebook and Twitter don’t directly charge people to use their platforms. So the traditional focus of economic regulation – fear of exorbitant rates – doesn’t apply.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1600873302443970560"}"></div></p>
<h2>Fairness and safety</h2>
<p>In my view, a more relevant regulatory model for social media might be the way in which the U.S. regulates <a href="https://www.ferc.gov/what-ferc-does">electricity grid and pipeline operations</a>. These industries fall under the jurisdiction of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and <a href="https://www.naruc.org/">state utility regulators</a>. Like these networks, social media carries a commodity – here it’s information, instead of electricity, oil or gas – and the public’s primary concern is that companies like Meta and Twitter should do it safely and fairly.</p>
<p>In this context, regulation means establishing standards for safety and equity. If a company violates those standards, it faces fines. It sounds simple, but the practice is far more complicated.</p>
<p>First, establishing these standards requires a careful definition of the regulated company’s roles and responsibilities. For example, your local electric utility is responsible for delivering power safely to your home. Since social media companies continuously adapt to the needs and wants of their users, establishing these roles and responsibilities could prove challenging.</p>
<p>Texas attempted to do this in 2021 with <a href="https://capitol.texas.gov/BillLookup/History.aspx?LegSess=872&Bill=HB20">HB 20</a>, a law that barred social media companies from banning users <a href="https://www.protocol.com/policy/hb-20-fifth-circuit-questions">based on their political views</a>. Social media trade groups sued, arguing that the measure infringed upon their members’ First Amendment rights. A federal appellate court <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/12/5th-circuit-temporarily-blocks-texas-social-media-law-00061555">blocked the law</a>, and the case is likely headed to the Supreme Court. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500817/original/file-20221213-21971-lciae2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman in a suit testifies before a congressional committee." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500817/original/file-20221213-21971-lciae2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500817/original/file-20221213-21971-lciae2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500817/original/file-20221213-21971-lciae2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500817/original/file-20221213-21971-lciae2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500817/original/file-20221213-21971-lciae2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500817/original/file-20221213-21971-lciae2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500817/original/file-20221213-21971-lciae2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Biden named Lina Khan, a prominent critic of Big Tech companies, as chair of the Federal Trade Commission in 2021. The agency investigates issues including antitrust violations, deceptive trade practices and data privacy lapses.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SenateNASA/a870a635ef574724b21624c1397b0ebc/photo">AP Photo/Saul Loeb</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Setting appropriate levels of fines is also complicated. Theoretically, regulators should try to set a fine commensurate with the <a href="https://www.ferc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-07/PolicyStatementonEnforcement.pdf">damage to society from the infraction</a>. From a practical standpoint, however, regulators treat fines as a deterrent. If the regulator never has to assess the fine, it means that companies are adhering to the established standards for safety and equity.</p>
<p>But laws often inhibit agencies from energetically policing target industries. For example, the Office of Enforcement at the <a href="https://www.ferc.gov/enforcement">Federal Energy Regulatory Commission</a> is concerned with safety and security of U.S. energy markets. But under a 2005 law, the office can’t levy civil penalties higher than <a href="https://www.ferc.gov/civil-penalties">US$1 million per day</a>. In comparison, the cost to customers of the California power crisis of 2000-2001, fueled partially by energy market manipulation, has been estimated at approximately <a href="https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/content/pubs/report/R_103CWR.pdf">$40 billion</a>. </p>
<p>In 2022 the Office of Enforcement <a href="https://www.ferc.gov/media/fy2022-oe-annual-report">settled eight investigations</a> of violations that occurred from 2017 to 2021 and levied a total of $55.5 million in penalties. In addition, it opened 21 new investigations. Clearly, the prospect of a fine from the regulator is not a sufficient deterrent in every instance.</p>
<h2>From legislation to regulation</h2>
<p>Congress writes the laws that create regulatory agencies and guide their actions, so that’s where any moves to regulate social media companies will start. Since these companies are controlled by some of the wealthiest people in the U.S., it’s likely that a law regulating social media would face legal challenges, potentially all the way to the Supreme Court. And the current Supreme Court has a <a href="https://minnesotalawreview.org/article/a-century-of-business-in-the-supreme-court-1920-2020/">strong pro-business record</a>.</p>
<p>If a new law withstands legal challenges, a regulatory agency such as the <a href="https://www.fcc.gov/">Federal Communications Commission</a> or the <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/">Federal Trade Commission</a>, or perhaps a newly created agency, would have to write regulations establishing social media companies’ roles and responsibilities. In doing so, regulators would need to be mindful that changes in social preferences and tastes could render these roles moot.</p>
<p>Finally, the agency would have to create enforcement mechanisms, such as fines or other penalties. This would involve determining what kinds of actions are likely to deter social media companies from behaving in ways deemed harmful under the law. </p>
<p>In the time it would take to set up such a system, we can assume that social media companies would evolve quickly, so regulators would likely be assessing a moving target. As I see it, even if bipartisan support develops for regulating social media, it will be easier said than done.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196533/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Theodore Kury is the Director of Energy Studies at the University of Florida’s Public Utility Research Center, which is sponsored in part by the Florida electric and gas utilities and the Florida Public Service Commission, none of which has editorial control of any of the content the Center produces.</span></em></p>The US government regulates many industries, but social media companies don’t neatly fit existing regulatory templates. Systems that deliver energy may be the closest analog.Theodore J. Kury, Director of Energy Studies, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1902172022-10-18T12:39:50Z2022-10-18T12:39:50ZSmart meters and dynamic pricing can help consumers use electricity when it’s less costly, saving money and reducing pollution<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489827/original/file-20221014-22-qijg34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=28%2C0%2C6205%2C3495&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Long Island Power Authority smart meter installed at a home in Suffolk County, N.Y.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/long-island-power-authority-smart-meter-recently-installed-news-photo/1420747109">John Paraskevas/Newsday RM via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Americans want their electricity to be <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262529686/cheap-and-clean/">cheap, clean and reliable</a>, but that trifecta is becoming more elusive, <a href="https://theconversation.com/looking-back-on-americas-summer-of-heat-floods-and-climate-change-welcome-to-the-new-abnormal-190636">thanks to climate change</a>. According to a 2021 report by the nonprofit research organization Climate Central, more than 80% of reported major outages across the U.S. from 2000 through 2021 <a href="https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/surging-weather-related-power-outages">were caused by weather extremes</a>, such as heat waves, wildfires and tropical storms. </p>
<p>We are an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=lfkXE9kAAAAJ&hl=en">economist</a> and an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=JHJozAYAAAAJ&hl=en">electrical engineer</a> investigating how increased use of <a href="https://www.smart-energy.com/wp-content/uploads/Campbell_Hawkins.pdf">two-way smart meter technology</a> can be used to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector and help the economy withstand climate-driven weather extremes. As we see it, adapting the power system to increasingly volatile weather will require a combination of user-friendly technologies and economic incentives. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489835/original/file-20221014-896-j4j9ft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing locations of droughts, heat waves, hail storms and other billion-dollar weather and climate disasters." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489835/original/file-20221014-896-j4j9ft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489835/original/file-20221014-896-j4j9ft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489835/original/file-20221014-896-j4j9ft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489835/original/file-20221014-896-j4j9ft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489835/original/file-20221014-896-j4j9ft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489835/original/file-20221014-896-j4j9ft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489835/original/file-20221014-896-j4j9ft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">From January through September 2022, the U.S. experienced 15 weather and climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each. Some of these events caused multi-day power outages.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/">NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The promise of smart meters</h2>
<p>Until recently, most U.S. households had mechanical electric meters. Utility employees would visit each home to take a monthly reading that the company would use to calculate the household’s bill. </p>
<p>Starting in the early 2000s, utilities began rolling out smart meters, also known as advanced metering infrastructure, or <a href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/12/f34/AMI%20Summary%20Report_09-26-16.pdf">AMI</a>. These electronic devices measure a home’s electricity consumption and communicate it to the utility wirelessly every few minutes. </p>
<p>Communication between the smart meter and the utility is a two-way channel, which enables the utility to remotely connect or disconnect power to a home. The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that as of 2020, <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=108&t=3">over 90 million residential AMI systems had been installed</a> nationwide. <a href="https://www.utilitydive.com/news/us-smart-meter-penetration-hits-65-expanding-utility-demand-response-reso/611690/">About two-thirds of electricity meters</a> across the U.S. are now smart meters.</p>
<p>For utilities, smart meters reduce the cost of meter reading and make it possible to detect and respond to power outages quickly. The fine-grained usage data that smart meters provide can help utilities better understand and predict customer demand using <a href="https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/data_analytics/utility-spending-on-smart-meter-analytics-to-triple-through-2030/">data analytics</a> and artificial intelligence tools. </p>
<p>With this information, utilities can manage their operations to help prevent blackouts due to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/electricity-shortage-warnings-grow-across-u-s-11652002380">lack of generating capacity</a>.</p>
<p>Utilities are partnering with companies like <a href="https://www.oracle.com/industries/utilities/opower-energy-efficiency/">Opower</a> to provide customers with mobile apps and reports that help them monitor and understand their electricity usage. A typical report may allow a customer to compare her usage over 12 months with her 100 closest neighbors and 20 most energy-efficient neighbors. </p>
<p>Studies show that receiving such reports leads consumers to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2011.03.003">reduce their electricity consumption by about 2%</a>. Reducing peak demand by a few percentage points can enable utilities to avoid blackouts during high demand periods. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489836/original/file-20221014-1601-53ifwb.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing how electricity demand fluctuates daily in spring, summer, fall and winter in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489836/original/file-20221014-1601-53ifwb.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489836/original/file-20221014-1601-53ifwb.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489836/original/file-20221014-1601-53ifwb.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489836/original/file-20221014-1601-53ifwb.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489836/original/file-20221014-1601-53ifwb.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489836/original/file-20221014-1601-53ifwb.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489836/original/file-20221014-1601-53ifwb.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This graph shows electricity use across 13 mid-Atlantic states and the District of Columbia. In winter and spring, daily usage starts increasing around 5 a.m. as people get up and prepare for work and school. Winter usage typically declines in daytime as buildings warm up and outside temperatures rise. In summer and fall, electricity use rises gradually through the daytime as outside temperatures increase. It peaks between 5 p.m. and 6 p.m. as people start getting home, then declines as the sun and temperature go down, easing the need for cooling.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://learn.pjm.com/three-priorities/keeping-the-lights-on/how-energy-use-varies">PJM</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>During extreme weather events such as heat waves, utilities routinely <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1756-2171.2008.00032.x">issue conservation appeals</a> to their customers. Smart meter data analytics can be used to pinpoint which customers actually respond to these requests. </p>
<h2>Smart devices and dynamic pricing</h2>
<p>Utilities are beginning to pair smart meters with other new technologies, pricing incentives and social “<a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/much-anew-about-nudging">nudges</a>” to encourage electricity conservation. </p>
<p>For example, companies such as <a href="https://store.google.com/us/category/connected_home?hl=en-US&GoogleNest=">Google</a>, <a href="https://www.ecobee.com/en-us/">Ecobee</a>, <a href="https://climate.emerson.com/en-us/products/thermostats">Emerson</a> and <a href="https://www.honeywellhome.com/us/en/products/air/thermostats/">Honeywell</a> are now designing <a href="https://www.constellation.com/energy-101/best-thermostat-types-and-settings.html#smart">smart thermostats</a> that are preprogrammed to meet individual customer preferences. As the temperature changes throughout the day, the thermostats take action autonomously, such as <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QdfpzdY7lI">precooling the home when power demand is lower</a>. It has been estimated that smart thermostats can <a href="https://nest.com/thermostats/real-savings/">reduce energy consumption by 10% to 15%</a>. </p>
<p>It’s possible to further manage energy use by introducing <a href="https://www.utilitydive.com/news/dynamic-pricing-pilots-5-utilities-programs-technology-and-results/152381/#:%7E:text=Dynamic%20pricing%2C%20or%20time%2Dbased,and%20customers%20can%20save%20money.">dynamic pricing</a> – real-time price shifts that are directly reflected in consumers’ electricity bills. Currently, most U.S. households pay a <a href="https://www.utilitydive.com/news/an-emerging-push-for-time-of-use-rates-sparks-new-debates-about-customer-an/545009/">flat rate for every kilowatt-hour of electricity</a> they use, regardless of how much it costs to generate it. </p>
<p>In the simplest version of dynamic pricing, all electricity consumers would face a higher real-time price for electricity when bad weather reduces the supply of power. For an electric utility that has deployed smart meters, the meters would signal to customers – perhaps via text message – that the price of power will increase over the next six hours. This would alert consumers to shut down computers and reduce discretionary power use. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Excel Energy in Colorado is testing time-of-use rates paired with smart meters.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Pricing experiments in Washington, D.C., and other cities have demonstrated that consumers <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.101.3.83">reduce their electricity consumption</a> when they face price spikes during peak electricity demand periods. If enough people and firms participated, aggregate demand for power would decline, reducing the systemwide risk of blackouts.</p>
<p>This strategy is also good for the environment. Utilities often resort to high-polluting power plants that run on fossil fuels when demand exceeds supply. These plants contribute to <a href="https://www.cleanegroup.org/ceg-resources/resource/peaker-problem">local air pollution and global greenhouse gas emissions</a>. </p>
<p>Introducing critical peak pricing for electricity reduces this need for dirty power. Averting power blackouts also will reduce reliance on home generators, which often <a href="https://doi.org/10.3155/1047-3289.60.5.523">emit harmful particulate air pollution</a>. </p>
<h2>Keeping dynamic pricing fair</h2>
<p>Clearly, some consumers can respond to price spikes more easily than others. For example, a person who uses home dialysis cannot easily reduce her electricity consumption on short notice. </p>
<p>Highly volatile electricity pricing without safeguards could <a href="https://hbr.org/2021/09/the-pitfalls-of-pricing-algorithms">trigger public backlash</a>. This happened during the 2021 deep freeze in Texas, which exposed some consumers to <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-behind-15-000-electricity-bills-in-texas-155822">astronomical electricity bills</a> during a life-threatening cold wave. </p>
<p>Economists have devised pricing strategies to encourage energy conservation <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/pol.4.3.56">without price gouging vulnerable people</a>. For example, a utility can use smart meter data and artificial intelligence to identify customers who are major electricity consumers but also respond to price increases by reducing their power usage. These consumers could be offered an annual financial incentive in return for enrolling in <a href="https://www.sce.com/business/rates/cpp">critical peak pricing programs</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1567995692236292098"}"></div></p>
<p>Customers who <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdab018">voluntarily accept</a> the deal would face price spikes on perhaps 15 days a year. They could protect themselves from large energy bills by investing in energy conservation measures, such as installing insulation, energy-efficient appliances or <a href="https://jesse-buchsbaum.com/publication/job_market_paper/">solar panels</a>. </p>
<p>In aggregate, their expected response – reducing their power use during peak periods – would help to reduce blackout risk. Federal money from the recently enacted <a href="https://www.utilitydive.com/news/what-inflation-and-the-inflation-reduction-act-mean-for-the-clean-energ/629563/">Inflation Reduction Act</a> could be used to pay the upfront incentive fees. </p>
<p>This approach reflects the fact that a small percentage of electricity consumers typically account for a <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2110.02166.pdf">large share of total demand</a>. If 10% of consumers account for 30% of an electric utility’s demand, and that group can be encouraged to reduce its consumption by 50%, then aggregate demand will decline by 15% during critical peak pricing events. The other 90% of consumers would not be exposed to price spikes.</p>
<p>Clean energy funding in the Inflation Reduction Act will represent the <a href="https://www.energy.gov/lpo/inflation-reduction-act-2022">single largest investment in climate and energy</a> in the U.S. to date. We believe targeting some of this funding toward programs that encourage adoption of smart energy measurement devices, along with introducing real-time price signals of resource scarcity, will help advance the clean energy transition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190217/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Most households pay a flat rate 24/7 for electricity although the cost of generating it fluctuates through the day. Wireless technologies are changing that system.Matthew E. Kahn, Provost Professor of Economics and Spatial Sciences, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesBhaskar Krishnamachari, Professor of Electrical Engineering, University of Southern CaliforniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1856592022-08-17T12:39:03Z2022-08-17T12:39:03ZElectric school buses are taking students back to school – bringing cleaner air and lower maintenance costs to school districts across the country<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479196/original/file-20220815-5636-zluoni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=35%2C7%2C4756%2C2716&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A new EV schoolbus from an all-electric fleet parked beside charging stations at South El Monte High School in California, Aug. 18, 2021. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/new-ev-schoolbus-from-an-all-electric-fleet-is-parked-news-photo/1234752434">Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Each weekday, more than half of the K-12 students in the U.S. – <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brown-center-chalkboard/2022/06/22/can-school-buses-improve-access-for-students-without-driving-down-academic-outcomes/">over 25 million pupils</a> – ride a school bus. Until very recently, nearly all of these <a href="https://time.com/6117544/electric-school-buses/">500,000 buses</a> ran on diesel fuel. </p>
<p>Nationwide, diesel-powered school buses produce <a href="https://time.com/6117544/electric-school-buses/">more than 5 million tons</a> of carbon dioxide emissions. They also generate <a href="https://www.epa.gov/diesel-fuel-standards/about-diesel-fuels">air pollutants</a> that are harmful to children’s health – especially <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/summary-diesel-particulate-matter-health-impacts">fine particulates</a>. Studies show that exposure to diesel tailpipe emissions <a href="https://www.epa.gov/dera/learn-about-impacts-diesel-exhaust-and-diesel-emissions-reduction-act-dera">worsens respiratory conditions, decreases lung function</a> and can lead to increased hospital admissions and emergency room visits. </p>
<p>Shifting to cleaner buses is especially important for low-income students. Across the U.S., <a href="https://www.bts.gov/topics/passenger-travel/back-school-2019">60% of low-income students</a> ride the school bus, compared with 45% of other students. School buses often <a href="https://www.epa.gov/dera/school-bus-idle-reduction">idle their engines</a> while they are loading or unloading, which exposes children directly to exhaust fumes.</p>
<p>I study issues at the intersection of <a href="https://www.urbandrea.com/about">infrastructure, policy and place</a>, including sustainability and equity in transportation. While electrifying school bus fleets requires big investments, I believe the evidence makes clear that it will more than pay off over the long term in health and economic benefits, and I am encouraged to see public and private investments moving in that direction.</p>
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<h2>Early movers</h2>
<p>Decisions about switching from diesel to electric school buses typically lie with cities and school districts, although state governments are getting involved. As of <a href="https://www.wri.org/research/electric-school-bus-us-market-study-and-buyers-guide-resource-school-bus-operators">March 2022</a>, 415 school districts or contracted fleet operators had committed to deploy 12,275 electric school buses in a wide range of settings, from large cities to rural counties, across 38 states and lands of two Native American tribes. </p>
<p>California, a <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/about/history">longtime leader</a> in clean vehicle policy, acquired its first electric school buses in 2014. Now the state is spending nearly US$70 million to <a href="https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2019-07/energy-commission-awards-nearly-70-million-replace-polluting-diesel-school-buses">replace more than 200 diesel buses with electric versions</a> to advance its climate and air-quality goals.</p>
<p>Another notable case is Montgomery County, the largest school district in Maryland, which is <a href="https://news.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/staff-bulletin/mcps-replacing-326-diesel-school-buses-with-electric-buses-over-next-four-years/">replacing 326 diesel buses with electric buses by 2025</a> and building five charging depots. The district serves a diverse population of <a href="https://www.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/">160,000 students in 210 schools</a>.</p>
<p>In Virginia, the utility company Dominion Energy <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/22/business/energy-environment/electric-school-buses.html">announced in 2019</a> that it would provide 50 electric buses for 16 school districts across the state as one of its initiatives to reduce pollution and promote sustainability. Dominion is paying for infrastructure costs and absorbing the cost difference between a diesel and an electric bus. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The town of Chesapeake, Va., takes delivery of its first electric school buses, funded by the utility Dominion Energy.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>The biggest obstacles: Funding and space</h2>
<p>As Dominion’s gesture suggests, converting bus fleets isn’t an easy step for many school districts. An electric school bus <a href="https://electrek.co/2022/03/29/us-school-bus-maker-blue-bird-receives-its-largest-ever-order-of-electric-school-buses/">can cost up to $400,000</a>, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-electric-school-buses-diesel-2022-6">two to three times the price</a> of a diesel bus. </p>
<p>But electric buses have <a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2022/02/02/the-real-cost-of-electric-school-buses-is-lower-than-you-think/">lower operating costs</a>, so they save districts an estimated $4,000 to $11,000 per bus per year compared with diesel versions. That can make the costs of electric buses comparable over their lifetimes. </p>
<p>Electric bus motors have about 20 parts, compared with 2,000 in a diesel engine, and require far fewer maintenance steps such as regular fluid changes. And because many of their mechanical systems, such as braking and steering, are similar to those in diesel buses, electric buses are relatively easy to service, especially in districts where both bus types operate.</p>
<p>Charging stations also require money and space, especially in areas where bus routes are long and battery range is a constraint. Most buses now on the market have ranges of about <a href="https://securefutures.solar/do-electric-school-buses-have-a-long-enough-range-to-be-practical/">100</a> to <a href="https://www.blue-bird.com/buses/electric-school-buses">120 miles</a> (160-190 kilometers) on a single charge. </p>
<p>In a 2013 study, analysts at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory reviewed school bus drive cycles in Colorado, New York and Washington and found that the average school bus was typically in operation for <a href="https://doi.org/10.4271/2013-01-2400">5.26 hours per day</a>. Driving distance averaged about 32 miles, (50 kilometers), with some buses traveling over 127 miles (200 kilomaters) daily.</p>
<p>School districts need places to charge buses easily and efficiently, especially between morning and afternoon routes. Building this infrastructure, especially as diesel buses continue to operate concurrently with growing electric fleets, can pose a challenge in school districts where <a href="https://www.edweek.org/leadership/schools-can-access-tons-of-money-for-electric-buses-will-they-use-it/2022/06">space is limited</a>. </p>
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<h2>Buses as power sources</h2>
<p>At the same time, charging infrastructure can make school bus fueling and management more efficient. Today’s <a href="https://stnonline.com/partner-updates/four-drawbacks-of-electric-buses-what-you-can-do-about-them/">managed charging infrastructure</a> allows districts to plug in a bus whenever it is parked at the depot but have the bus charge only when needed. Chargers can be programmed to function at times of day when energy demand is lowest and power is less expensive. </p>
<p>Manufacturers are introducing buses equipped with <a href="https://chargedevs.com/newswire/byd-introduces-type-a-electric-school-bus-with-v2g-tech/">bidirectional charging capability</a> that can send stored electricity back to the grid when they are not in service. During summer months, when many school buses are not in use and power usage often peaks, utilities soon may be able to call on school districts to make charged buses available to help ease demand load. These buses can also <a href="https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2022-06/esb-us-market-buyers-guide.pdf?VersionId=Be6NI4mvnt0iF8M3oiGFMvrW3OQY.4SO">be used as mobile generators</a> during power outages and emergencies.</p>
<p>In a 2022 study, researchers at the University of North Carolina analyzed how the state’s utilities could use school buses with vehicle-to-grid charging to manage peak power demand while taking the buses’ schedules into account. They estimated that a fleet of 14,000 buses could <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2021.11.029">provide about 2.6 gigawatt-hours of electricity to the grid</a> on an average winter weekend day in North Carolina, reducing utilities’ dependence on natural gas and avoiding up to 1,130 tons of carbon dioxide emissions per day. </p>
<p>Cleaner air is likely to pay off in improved student performance. In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2019.03.002">2019 study</a>, researchers found that <a href="https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/Environment/air_quality/cmaq/reference/cmaq_diesel_retrofits/cmaqdiesel.pdf">retrofitting</a> 2,656 diesel buses in Georgia – adding new components to reduce the buses’ emissions – was associated with positive effects on students’ respiratory health, and that districts with retrofitted diesel buses experienced test score gains in English and math. Since even modernized diesel vehicles still generate air pollutants, shifting to electric buses would likely produce even larger increases.</p>
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<h2>Spreading the benefits</h2>
<p>Federal and state agencies are moving to speed up the transition to electric school buses. The American Rescue Plan, enacted in 2021 to provide economic relief during the COVID-19 pandemic, included <a href="https://www.epa.gov/dera/2021-american-rescue-plan-arp-electric-school-bus-rebates">$7 million in rebates</a> for school districts in underserved communities, Tribal schools and private fleets serving schools that purchase electric buses. </p>
<p>In March 2022 the Environmental Protection Agency <a href="https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-awards-rebates-totaling-17-million-fund-clean-school-buses-reduce-diesel-emissions">awarded funding</a> for 23 electric school bus replacement programs and associated charging infrastructure in 11 states. And New York state’s <a href="https://electrek.co/2022/04/08/new-york-state-governor-100-electric-school-buses-2035/">fiscal 2023 budget</a> includes a nation-leading requirement that all new school bus purchases must be electric starting in July 2027, and that all school buses in service must be zero-emission by 2035. The budget allocates $500 million in potential state funding for school bus electrification as part of a larger environmental bond act, which will be on the ballot in November 2022.</p>
<p>Riding the iconic yellow school bus is a formative experience for millions of kids across the U.S. If more districts make the shift away from diesel, I believe it will become a greener and healthier trip and a step toward the zero-emissions future our nation’s children deserve.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185659/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrea Marpillero-Colomina does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>They look like conventional school buses, but electric versions are cleaner, quieter and cheaper to maintain. States, utilities and federal agencies are helping school districts make the switch.Andrea Marpillero-Colomina, Adjunct Lecturer in Urban Studies, The New SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1852792022-06-22T12:11:56Z2022-06-22T12:11:56ZWhat is curtailment? An electricity market expert explains<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470090/original/file-20220621-13-lk40so.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C5607%2C3707&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The control room of the California Independent System Operator, which manages the flow of electricity on the state's power grid.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-california-iso-is-the-operator-of-the-states-high-news-photo/548993529">Rolf Schulten/ullstein bild via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Curtailment has a special meaning in electric power systems. It describes any action that reduces the amount of electricity generated to maintain the balance between supply and demand – which is critical for avoiding blackouts.</p>
<p>Recently, curtailment has made news in states like <a href="http://www.caiso.com/informed/Pages/ManagingOversupply.aspx">California</a> and <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Wind-solar-production-outstrips-transmission-in-16223706.php">Texas</a> that are adding a lot of wind and solar power. On very windy or sunny days, these sources may produce more electricity than the grid can take. So grid managers reduce production to manage that oversupply.</p>
<p>This can be a lost opportunity. Electricity from solar and wind, as well as existing nuclear plants, is inexpensive and <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/safest-sources-of-energy">emits less greenhouse gases than fossil fuels</a>, so it may be in society’s interest to keep these generators running.</p>
<h2>A special kind of surplus</h2>
<p>Consumers know about shortages and surpluses in the goods they buy. Shortages mean that shoppers can’t get that PlayStation 5 for Christmas – or, more critically, the bread, <a href="https://drought.ca.gov/">water</a> or <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/05/19/1099748064/baby-infant-formula-shortages">baby formula</a> they need. </p>
<p>Surpluses look different, like unsold books classified as <a href="https://bookscouter.com/tips/what-are-remaindered-books/">remainders</a> or Easter candy discounted 80% at local drug stores on Monday morning. </p>
<p>But electricity is not like these goods. On today’s electric grid, shortages and surpluses can both result in the exact same thing – a blackout.</p>
<p>The North American grid transmits electricity as <a href="https://www.science.smith.edu/%7Ejcardell/Courses/EGR220/ElecPwr_HSW.html">alternating current</a> that changes direction back and forth, like water ebbing and flowing from a vintage hand pump as the handle is pushed up and down. Modern electricity grids require precise levels of frequency – the back-and-forth motion of power – to function properly. </p>
<p>The grid is designed to function at 60 hertz, which means that the flow of electric current shifts back and forth 60 times per second. This is achieved, in part, by ensuring that the amount of electricity produced at any given time is equal to the amount of electricity being used. If too little electricity is produced, frequency on the system drops. If too much electricity is produced, then frequency increases. </p>
<p>Modern power plants are designed to operate within a relatively narrow range around 60 hertz. If the actual frequency on the grid is <a href="https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/energy-environment/2021/02/24/392290/texas-power-grid-was-4-minutes-and-37-seconds-away-from-collapsing-heres-how-it-happened/">outside that range</a>, the plant can disconnect itself from the system. If enough plants do that, it causes a blackout.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">As the U.S. electric power industry shifts increasingly to renewable sources, the national power grid will require major updates.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Managing the flow</h2>
<p>In some parts of the U.S., mostly the Southeast and the West, the same companies generate electricity and deliver it to customers. When power plants in a utility’s territory generate more electricity than customers are using, the company will simply produce less electricity from its most expensive power plant, or temporarily shut it off altogether.</p>
<p>But other states have <a href="https://www.ferc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-05/elec-ovr-rto-map.pdf">restructured their electricity markets</a> so that some companies produce power and others deliver it to customers. In these competitive markets, curtailment raises complex issues. Power generators stay in business by generating and selling power, so when demand drops, grid operators need a system to ensure that they make curtailment decisions fairly.</p>
<p>Often the first tool for choosing which plants to curtail is the <a href="https://api.misoenergy.org/MISORTWD/lmpcontourmap.html">prices that generators are paid</a>. When supply grows or demand falls, the price of electricity falls. Some generators may decide that they are unwilling to produce electricity below a certain price and drop off if it hits that level. </p>
<p>If there’s still a power surplus, the organization that operates the grid steps in to <a href="http://www.caiso.com/informed/Pages/ManagingOversupply.aspx">manually curtail</a> generators. They can either do this through signals in the grid’s <a href="https://inductiveautomation.com/resources/article/what-is-scada">data system</a> or by contacting generators directly <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/60983.pdf">through phone calls</a>. Power may be curtailed for five minutes or five hours, depending on how quickly the system returns to normal.</p>
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<p>Overall, the U.S. needs more low-emissions electricity to help <a href="https://www.epa.gov/mats/cleaner-power-plants">reduce air pollution</a> and <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=74&t=11">slow climate change</a>. So curtailment isn’t a sound long-term strategy for managing power surpluses. It’s somewhat comparable to the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic when supply chain disruptions forced producers to <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-farmers-are-dumping-milk-down-the-drain-and-letting-produce-rot-in-fields-136567">throw away huge quantities of food</a> even as grocery stores struggled to fill their shelves.</p>
<p>One solution is to expand <a href="https://theconversation.com/these-3-energy-storage-technologies-can-help-solve-the-challenge-of-moving-to-100-renewable-electricity-161564">energy storage</a> so that generators can save excess power for a few hours instead of sending it straight into the grid. Another option is <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-needs-a-macrogrid-to-move-electricity-from-areas-that-make-it-to-areas-that-need-it-155938">building more transmission</a> to carry power to areas that need it. Both types of investments can reduce the need to curtail generation and forgo making clean, affordable electricity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185279/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Theodore Kury is the Director of Energy Studies at the University of Florida’s Public Utility Research Center, which is sponsored in part by the Florida electric and gas utilities and the Florida Public Service Commission, none of which has editorial control of any of the content the Center produces.</span></em></p>Sometimes wind and solar power produce more electricity than the local grid can handle. Better energy storage and transmission could move extra energy to where it’s needed instead of shutting it off.Theodore J. Kury, Director of Energy Studies, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1810412022-04-11T12:17:54Z2022-04-11T12:17:54ZElectrifying homes to slow climate change: 4 essential reads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457229/original/file-20220410-41193-jw2pqq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C112%2C4977%2C3630&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">LED lightbulbs are just the start.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/close-up-of-high-wattage-energy-efficient-led-lightbulb-news-photo/1270292416">Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">latest reports</a> from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show that to avoid massive losses and damage from global warming, nations must act quickly to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The good news is that experts believe it’s possible to <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/speech/half-measures-will-not-halve-emissions">cut global greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030</a> through steps such as using energy more efficiently, slowing deforestation and speeding up the adoption of renewable energy.</p>
<p>Many of those strategies require new laws, regulations or funding to move forward at the speed and scale that’s needed. But one strategy that’s increasingly feasible for many consumers is powering their homes and devices with electricity from clean sources. These four articles from our archives explain why electrifying homes is an important climate strategy and how consumers can get started.</p>
<h2>1. Why go electric?</h2>
<p>As of 2020, home energy use accounted for <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=48236">about one-sixth of total U.S. energy consumption</a>. Nearly half (47%) of this energy came from electricity, followed by natural gas (42%), oil (8%) and renewable energy (7%). By far the largest home energy use is for <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36412&src=%E2%80%B9%20Consumption%20%20%20%20%20%20Residential%20Energy%20Consumption%20Survey%20(RECS)-b2">heating and air conditioning</a>, followed by lighting, refrigerators and other appliances.</p>
<p>The most effective way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from home energy consumption is to substitute electricity generated from low- and zero-carbon sources for oil and natural gas. And the power sector is rapidly moving that way: As a 2021 report from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory showed, power producers have <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-electric-power-sector-is-halfway-to-zero-carbon-emissions-159190">reduced their carbon emissions by 50%</a> from what energy experts predicted in 2005. </p>
<p>“This drop happened thanks to policy, market and technology drivers,” a team of Lawrence Berkeley lab analysts concluded. Wind and solar power have scaled up and cut their costs, so utilities are using more of them. Cheap natural gas has replaced generation from dirtier coal. And public policies have encouraged the use of energy-efficient technologies like <a href="https://www.energystar.gov/productfinder/product/certified-light-bulbs/results">LED light bulbs</a>. These converging trends make electric power an increasingly climate-friendly energy choice.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-electric-power-sector-is-halfway-to-zero-carbon-emissions-159190">The US electric power sector is halfway to zero carbon emissions</a>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395823/original/file-20210419-19-10bamb6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395823/original/file-20210419-19-10bamb6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395823/original/file-20210419-19-10bamb6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395823/original/file-20210419-19-10bamb6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395823/original/file-20210419-19-10bamb6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395823/original/file-20210419-19-10bamb6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395823/original/file-20210419-19-10bamb6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395823/original/file-20210419-19-10bamb6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The U.S. is using much more low-carbon and carbon-free electricity today than projected in 2005.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<h2>2. Heat pumps for cold and hot days</h2>
<p>Since heating and cooling use so much energy, switching from an oil- or gas-powered furnace to a heat pump can greatly reduce a home’s carbon footprint. As University of Dayton sustainability expert <a href="https://scholar.google.de/citations?user=kc0ETzIAAAAJ&hl=en">Robert Brecha</a> explains, heat pumps work by moving heat in and out of buildings, not by burning fossil fuel.</p>
<p>“Extremely cold fluid circulates through coils of tubing in the heat pump’s outdoor unit,” Brecha writes. “That fluid absorbs energy in the form of heat from the surrounding air, which is warmer than the fluid. The fluid vaporizes and then circulates into a compressor. Compressing any gas <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qe1Ueifekg">heats it up</a>, so this process generates heat. Then the vapor moves through coils of tubing in the indoor unit of the heat pump, heating the building.”</p>
<p>In summer, the process reverses: Heat pumps take energy from indoors and move that heat outdoors, just as a refrigerator removes heat from the chamber where it stores food and expels it into the air in the room where it sits.</p>
<p>Another option is a geothermal heat pump, which collects warmth from the earth and uses the same process as air source heat pumps to move it into buildings. These systems cost more, since installing them involves excavation to bury tubing below ground, but they also reduce electricity use.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-heat-pumps-use-much-less-energy-than-furnaces-and-can-cool-houses-too-heres-how-they-work-154779">Electric heat pumps use much less energy than furnaces, and can cool houses too – here's how they work</a>
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<h2>3. Cooking without gas – or heat</h2>
<p>For people who like to cook, the biggest sticking point of going electric is the prospect of using an electric stove. Many home chefs see gas flames as more responsive and precise than electric burners.</p>
<p>But magnetic induction, which cooks food by generating a magnetic field under the pot, eliminates the need to fire up a burner altogether. </p>
<p>“Instead of conventional burners, the cooking spots on induction cooktops are called hobs, and consist of wire coils embedded in the cooktop’s surface,” writes Binghamton University electrical engineering professor <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=VcXxSfkAAAAJ&hl=en">Kenneth McLeod</a>. </p>
<p>Moving an electric charge through those wires creates a magnetic field, which in turn creates an electric field in the bottom of the cookware. “Because of resistance, the pan will heat up, even though the hob does not,” McLeod explains.</p>
<p>Induction cooktops warm up and cool down very quickly and offer highly accurate temperature control. They also are easy to clean, since they are made of glass, and safer than electric stoves since the hobs don’t stay hot when pans are lifted off them. Many utilities are offering rebates to cover the higher cost of induction cooktops.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/magnetic-induction-cooking-can-cut-your-kitchens-carbon-footprint-151422">Magnetic induction cooking can cut your kitchen's carbon footprint</a>
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<h2>4. Electric cars as backup power sources</h2>
<p>Electrifying systems like home heating and cooking made residents even more vulnerable to power outages. Soon, however, a new backup system could become available: powering your home from your electric vehicle. </p>
<p>With interest in electric cars and light trucks <a href="https://morningconsult.com/2021/12/22/electric-vehicles-consumers-2022/">rising in the U.S.</a>, auto makers are introducing many new EV models and designs. Some of these new rides will offer <a href="https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1134639_american-households-might-use-evs-as-backup-power-with-this-bidirectional-charger">bidirectional charging</a> – the ability to charge a car battery at home, then move that power back into the house, and eventually, into the grid. </p>
<p>[<em>Over 150,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletters to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-150ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>Only a few models offer this capacity now, and it requires special equipment that can add several thousand dollars to the price of an EV. But Penn State energy expert <a href="https://scholar.google.ca/citations?user=07sAJX8AAAAJ&hl=en">Seth Blumsack</a> sees <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-my-electric-car-power-my-house-not-yet-for-most-drivers-but-vehicle-to-home-charging-is-coming-163332">value in this emerging technology</a>.</p>
<p>“Enabling homeowners to use their vehicles as backup when the power goes down would reduce the social impacts of large-scale blackouts. It also would give utilities more time to restore service – especially when there is substantial damage to power poles and wires,” Blumsack explains. “Bidirectional charging is also an integral part of a broader vision for a next-generation electric grid in which millions of EVs are constantly taking power from the grid and giving it back – a key element of an electrified future.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-my-electric-car-power-my-house-not-yet-for-most-drivers-but-vehicle-to-home-charging-is-coming-163332">Can my electric car power my house? Not yet for most drivers, but vehicle-to-home charging is coming</a>
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<p><em>Editor’s note: This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181041/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Many people want to know about practical suggestions to help slow climate change. Effective action starts at home.Jennifer Weeks, Senior Environment + Cities Editor, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1633322022-03-29T12:35:13Z2022-03-29T12:35:13ZCan my electric car power my house? Not yet for most drivers, but vehicle-to-home charging is coming<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454777/original/file-20220328-15-1ko71us.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C15%2C5084%2C3374&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Think of your car as a home power supply on wheels.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/renault-zoe-electric-car-woman-charging-the-battery-of-her-news-photo/1371868478">Tesson/Andia/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As manufacturers introduce new models of electric vehicles, demand for them is growing steadily. New EV sales in the U.S. <a href="https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/articles/new-plug-electric-vehicle-sales-united-states-nearly-doubled-2020-2021#:%7E:text=Energy%20Saver-,New%20Plug%2Din%20Electric%20Vehicle%20Sales%20in%20the%20United%20States,Doubled%20from%202020%20to%202021&text=Sales%20of%20new%20light%2Dduty,2020%20to%20608%2C000%20in%202021.">roughly doubled in 2021</a> and could double again in 2022, from <a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2022/02/07/us-electric-vehicle-sales-might-nearly-double-in-2022/">600,000 to 1.2 million</a>. Auto industry leaders expect that EVs could account for <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/30/auto-executives-say-more-than-half-of-us-car-sales-will-be-evs-by-2030-kpmg-survey-shows.html">at least half of all new U.S. car sales</a> by the end of the decade. </p>
<p>EVs appeal to different customers in different ways. Many buyers want to <a href="https://www.forbes.com/wheels/features/ev-survey">help protect the environment</a>; others want to save money on gasoline or <a href="https://evannex.com/blogs/news/tesla-made-electric-cars-cool-and-they-re-still-the-coolest">try out the latest, coolest technology</a>. </p>
<p>In areas like <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/california-fire-power-outages-shutoffs-wildfire/">California</a> and <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/series/winter-storm-power-outage/">Texas</a> that have suffered large weather-related power failures in recent years, consumers are starting to consider EVs in a new way: as a potential electricity source when the lights go out. Ford has made backup power a selling point of its electric F-150 Lightning pickup truck, which is due to arrive in showrooms sometime in the spring of 2022. The company says the truck can <a href="https://www.ford.com/trucks/f150/f150-lightning/2022/">fully power an average house for three days on a single charge</a>. </p>
<p>So far, though, <a href="https://www.cleanenergyreviews.info/blog/bidirectional-ev-charging-v2g-v2h-v2l">only a few vehicles can charge a house in this way</a>, and it requires special equipment. Vehicle-to-home charging, or V2H, also poses challenges for utilities. Here are some of the key issues involved in bringing V2H to the mainstream.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Gasoline can flow only one way, from pump to car, but with some technical advances, EVs soon will be able to send power back to homes.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>The ABCs of V2H</h2>
<p>The biggest factors involved in using an EV to power a home are the size of the vehicles’s battery and whether it is set up for “bidirectional charging.” Vehicles with this capacity can use electricity to charge their batteries and can send electricity from a charged battery to a house. </p>
<p>There are two ways to judge how “big” a battery is. The first is the total amount of electric fuel stored in the battery. This is the most widely publicized number from EV manufacturers, because it determines how far the car can drive. </p>
<p>Batteries for electric sedans like the Tesla Model S or the Nissan Leaf might be able to store 80 to 100 kilowatt-hours of electric fuel. For reference, 1 kilowatt-hour is enough energy to power a typical refrigerator for five hours. </p>
<p>A typical U.S. home uses <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=97&t=3">around 30 kilowatt-hours per day</a>, depending on its size and which appliances people use. This means that a typical EV battery can store enough electric fuel to supply the total energy needs of a typical home for a couple of days.</p>
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<p>The other way to assess the capacity of an EV battery is its maximum power output in backup power mode. This represents the largest amount of electric fuel that could be delivered to the grid or a house at any given moment. An EV operating in backup mode will typically have a lower maximum power output than when in driving mode. The backup power capacity is important, because it indicates how many appliances an EV battery could power at once. </p>
<p>This figure is not as widely publicized for all EVs, in part because vehicle-to-home charging hasn’t yet been widely deployed. Ford has advertised that its electric F-150 would have a maximum V2H power output of <a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a39493654/can-your-ev-power-your-house/">2.4 kilowatts, potentially upgradable to 9.6 kilowatts</a> – about the same as a single higher-end <a href="https://www.tesla.com/powerwall">Tesla Powerwall</a> home energy storage unit. </p>
<p>On the low end, 2.4 kilowatts is enough power to run eight to 10 refrigerators at the same time and could run much of a typical household continuously for a few days – or much more if the electricity is used sparingly. On the high end, a power level of 9.6 kilowatts could run more appliances or higher-powered ones, but that level of usage would drain the battery faster. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454792/original/file-20220328-17-uf886w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A person lies on the floor of a large meeting room, covered with fleece blankets" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454792/original/file-20220328-17-uf886w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454792/original/file-20220328-17-uf886w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454792/original/file-20220328-17-uf886w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454792/original/file-20220328-17-uf886w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454792/original/file-20220328-17-uf886w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454792/original/file-20220328-17-uf886w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454792/original/file-20220328-17-uf886w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">People shelter at a church warming center in Houston on Feb. 16, 2021, during a record cold wave that caused widespread power outages in Texas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/WinterWeatherTexasPowerFailures/d97dd7e7852f48ff913869ce19f35924/photo">AP Photo/David J. Phillip</a></span>
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<h2>Storing power when it’s cheaper</h2>
<p>To draw home power from their cars, EV owners need a bidirectional charger and an electric vehicle that is compatible with V2H. Bidirectional chargers are already commercially available, though some can add several thousand dollars to the price of the car. </p>
<p>A limited number of EVs on the market now are compatible with V2H, including the Ford Lightning, <a href="https://www.nissanusa.com/vehicles/electric-cars/leaf/features/range-charging-battery.html">Nissan Leaf</a> and <a href="https://www.mitsubishicars.com/cars-and-suvs/outlander">Mitsubishi Outlander</a>. General Motors and Pacific Gas & Electric plan to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/03/08/1085233003/gm-electric-vehicles-home-power">test V2H charging in California</a> in mid-2022 using multiple GM electric vehicles.</p>
<p>Some homeowners might hope to use their vehicle for what utility planners call “<a href="https://www.nrel.gov/state-local-tribal/blog/posts/when-does-energy-storage-make-sense-it-depends.html">peak shaving</a>” – drawing household power from their EV during the day instead of relying on the grid, thus reducing their electricity purchases during peak demand hours. To do this, they might need to install special metering equipment that can control both the discharging of the vehicle battery and the flow of power from the grid to the home. </p>
<p>Peak shaving makes the most sense in areas where utilities have time-of-use electric pricing, which makes power from the grid much more expensive during the day than at night. A peak-shaving household would use cheap electricity at night to charge the EV battery and then store that electricity to use during the day, avoiding high electricity prices. </p>
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<h2>Utilities and the future of V2H</h2>
<p>While V2H capabilities exist now, it will likely be a little while before they see widespread adoption. The market for V2H-compatible electric vehicles will need to grow, and the costs of V2H chargers and other equipment will need to come down. As with Tesla’s Powerwall, the biggest market for V2H will probably be homeowners who want backup power for when the grid fails but don’t want to invest in a special generator just for that purpose.</p>
<p>Enabling homeowners to use their vehicles as backup when the power goes down would reduce the social impacts of large-scale blackouts. It also would give utilities more time to restore service – especially when there is substantial damage to power poles and wires, as occurred during <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/18/us/ida-louisiana-power-outages.html">Hurricane Ida</a> in Louisiana in August 2021.</p>
<p>Power companies will still have to spend money building and maintaining the grid to provide reliable service. In some areas, those grid maintenance costs are passed on to customers through peak demand charges, meaning that people without V2H – who will be more likely to have lower incomes – may well bear a greater share of those costs than those with V2H, who will avoid purchasing peak power from the grid. This is especially true if lots of EV owners <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-rooftop-solar-is-disruptive-to-utilities-and-the-grid-39032">use rooftop solar panels</a> to charge their car batteries and use those vehicles for peak shaving. </p>
<p>Still, even with V2H, electric vehicles are a huge potential market for electric utilities. Bidirectional charging is also an integral part of a broader vision for a <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/project-ev-grid-integration.html">next-generation electric grid</a> in which millions of EVs are constantly taking power from the grid and giving it back – a key element of an electrified future. First, though, energy planners will need to understand <a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/13/ford-gm-pge-to-begin-vehicle-to-grid-trials/">how their customers use V2H</a> and how it may affect their strategies for keeping the grid reliable. </p>
<p>[<em>The Conversation’s science, health and technology editors pick their favorite stories.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=science&source=inline-science-favorite">Weekly on Wednesdays</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163332/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Seth Blumsack receives funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and Heising Simons Foundation.</span></em></p>Bidirectional charging is the next big stage for electric vehicles. But storing power in your car and sending it back to your house involves more than flipping a switch.Seth Blumsack, Professor of Energy and Environmental Economics and International Affairs, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1704422021-11-22T14:13:36Z2021-11-22T14:13:36ZThe average person’s daily choices can still make a big difference in fighting climate change – and getting governments and utilities to tackle it, too<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430391/original/file-20211104-19417-19citkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=55%2C11%2C7363%2C4927&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Reducing household energy use can contribute to slowing climate change.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/woman-adjusting-temperature-on-smart-thermostat-at-royalty-free-image/1327246362?adppopup=true">Westend61 via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The average American’s everyday interactions with energy sources are limited. They range from turning appliances on or off, to commuting, to paying utility bills.</p>
<p>The connections between those acts and rising global temperatures may seem distant.</p>
<p>However, individuals hold many keys to unlocking solutions to climate change – the biggest challenge our species currently faces – which is perhaps why the fossil fuel industry spent <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2020.1863703">decades misleading and misinforming the public</a> about it.</p>
<p>I’m an <a href="https://www.geo.txstate.edu/people/faculty/thomas-ptak">assistant professor of geography and environmental studies</a> at Texas State University. <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=7kgCOOoAAAAJ&hl=en">My research</a> explores how <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2014.03.016">geography affects</a> the complex relationships between societies, energy and contemporary environmental challenges. I’ve found that the human element is critical for developing creative, effective and sustainable solutions to climate challenges. </p>
<p>There’s a large and growing body of evidence showing that individuals can have a major impact on climate change in a number of ways. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2017.10.018">Citizen action</a> can compel utilities to increase renewable energy and governments to enact strong climate action laws. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2019.02.001">When enough individuals make changes that lower daily household energy consumption</a>, huge emissions reductions can result. <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/05/eco-wakening-consumers-driving-sustainability/">Consumer demand can compel businesses</a> to pursue climate and environmental sustainability. </p>
<p>These actions combined <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2019.02.001">could bridge</a> the “emissions gap”: the <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2021">significant difference</a> between the greenhouse gas emissions expected globally and how much they need to drop in the next few decades to avoid catastrophic climate change.</p>
<h2>Climate change is outracing government action</h2>
<p>People have worked for decades to slow climate change by altering national energy policies. Several states, for example, have <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/energy/renewable-portfolio-standards.aspx">renewable portfolio standards</a> for utilities that require them to increase their use of renewable energy. </p>
<p>But 30 years of evidence from international climate talks suggests that even when nations commit on paper to reducing emissions, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20211028-why-not-all-net-zero-emissions-targets-are-equal">they seldom achieve those cuts</a>. </p>
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<p>The United Nations <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-cop26-the-hard-work-begins-on-making-climate-promises-real-5-things-to-watch-in-2022-172024">climate summits</a> are one example. Researchers have found that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2021/greenhouse-gas-emissions-pledges-data/">many countries’ pledges have been developed using flawed data</a>.</p>
<p>People are also increasingly talking about <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/geoengineer-the-planet-more-scientists-now-say-it-must-be-an-option">geoengineering solutions</a> for climate change. The idea is that over the coming decades, researchers will <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-we-tweak-marine-chemistry-to-help-stave-off-climate-change-93174">find ways to manipulate the environment</a> to absorb more carbon pollution. However, some experts argue that geoengineering <a href="http://www.homepages.ed.ac.uk/shs/Climatechange/Geo-politics/Oxford%20principles.pdf">could be environmentally catastrophic</a>. Also, <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/07/08/1027908/carbon-removal-hype-is-a-dangerous-distraction-climate-change/">there’s significant doubt</a> that technological “draw down” interventions can <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/06022018/carbon-capture-storage-geoengineering-no-silver-bullet-global-warming-eu-science-academy/">be perfected and scaled up soon enough</a> to make a difference.</p>
<p>So if government, technology or geoengineering aren’t good answers, what are? </p>
<h2>Citizen action</h2>
<p>Pledges, goals and targets for shifting from fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources are only as good as the efforts by utilities and governments to reach them. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02665433.2020.1806725">Citizen participation and action</a> have proved effective at compelling decision-makers to act. For example, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101579">scholars studying the economic, political and social dynamics</a> that led five U.S. municipalities to adopt 100% renewable energy found that grassroots citizen advocacy was one of the key factors that drove the change. </p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://www.sierraclub.org/ready-for-100/commitments">Sierra Club</a>, through citizen-driven action, over 180 cities, more than 10 counties and eight U.S. states have made commitments to transitioning to 100% renewable energy. Consequently, over 100 million U.S residents already live in a community with a 100% renewable energy target. </p>
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<p>Citizens have also been taking collective action at the ballot box. For example, in 2019, after New York City voters elected a more climate conscious City Council, <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/21062021/new-york-city-mayors-race-climate-goals/">the city enacted an ambitious emissions reduction law</a>, and has since begun to enforce it. Also in 2019, after voters similarly shook up the state legislature, New York state enacted the <a href="https://news.bloomberglaw.com/environment-and-energy/the-impact-of-new-yorks-climate-leadership-and-community-protection-act">Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act</a>. Among <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/18/nyregion/greenhouse-gases-ny.html">the nation’s strongest climate change laws</a>, New York’s measure mandates that the state shift to 100% renewable energy by 2040 and that its emissions from all sources drop 40% by 2040 and 85% by 2050.</p>
<h2>Consumer demand</h2>
<p>How and where people spend their money can also influence corporate behavior. <a href="https://www.strategy-business.com/article/The-rise-of-the-eco-friendly-consumer">Companies and utilities are changing their products and production practices</a> as consumers increasingly demand that they produce ecologically sustainable products and lower their carbon footprints. Scholars have documented that consumer boycotts <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12389">negatively affect the wealth</a> of a corporation’s shareholders – which in turn can create pressure for a firm to change in response.</p>
<p>The Natural Resources Defense Council has reported that thanks to surging consumer awareness and demand, <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/resources/race-100-clean">more than 565 companies have publicly pledged to slash their carbon emissions</a>. Some of the world’s biggest brands have responded to this pressure with claims of already being powered by 100% renewable energy, including <a href="https://cloud.google.com/blog/topics/sustainability/google-achieves-four-consecutive-years-of-100-percent-renewable-energy">Google</a> and <a href="https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2018/04/apple-now-globally-powered-by-100-percent-renewable-energy/">Apple</a>. </p>
<p>Google put its global economic might behind climate solutions when it announced in 2019 that it would <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/sep/20/google-says-its-energy-deals-will-lead-to-2bn-wind-and-solar-investment">support the growth of renewable energy resources</a> by making solar and wind energy deals worth US$2 billion. </p>
<p>One drawback to consumer demand-driven action is that it’s often unclear <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/22/business/energy-environment/corporations-climate-change.html">how to hold these firms accountable</a> for their promises. Recently, <a href="https://www.vox.com/21509913/climate-change-bp-microsoft-investors-shareholders-accountability">two impact investing experts suggested in Vox</a> that since around 137 million Americans own stock in publicly traded companies, they could use their collective power as shareholders to make sure companies follow through.</p>
<h2>Shifting household energy behavior</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2015.07.008">A substantial body of research</a> shows that small changes to everyday behaviors can significantly reduce energy demand. This may be the biggest way individuals and families can contribute to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2016.43">lowering fossil fuel consumption</a> and reducing carbon emissions.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0908738106">These steps include</a> weatherization and using energy-efficient appliances, as well as energy efficiency measures such as turning down thermostats, washing laundry with cold water and air-drying it rather than using a dryer.</p>
<p>So is shifting transportation behavior. Using public transportation, car pooling, riding a bicycle or walking can <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856413000694?via%3Dihub">significantly reduce individual and cumulative emissions</a>. </p>
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<img alt="People ride bicycles across a roadway as cars wait." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432507/original/file-20211117-23-1tre5dc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432507/original/file-20211117-23-1tre5dc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432507/original/file-20211117-23-1tre5dc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432507/original/file-20211117-23-1tre5dc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432507/original/file-20211117-23-1tre5dc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432507/original/file-20211117-23-1tre5dc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432507/original/file-20211117-23-1tre5dc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Choosing to ride a bicycle, walk or take public transit rather than drive can significantly lower a person’s greenhouse gas emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/bicyclists-cross-an-intersection-as-cars-wait-at-a-red-news-photo/967824092">Sean Gallup/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>So since most governments aren’t acting quickly enough, and many technology and geoengineering solutions are still unproven or come with high risks, emission reduction goals won’t be achieved without incorporating additional strategies. </p>
<p>The evidence is clear that these strategies should include millions of average people factoring climate change into their everyday activities regarding their communities, purchases and personal energy use.</p>
<p>As the environmentalist <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/26/AR2006052601549.html?utm_term=.bebdc2b3bd56">Bill McKibben wrote in 2006</a> about dealing with climate change, “There are no silver bullets, only silver buckshot.” </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/7-ways-to-get-proactive-about-climate-change-instead-of-feeling-helpless-lessons-from-a-leadership-expert-166144">7 ways to get proactive about climate change instead of feeling helpless: Lessons from a leadership expert</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Ptak receives funding from the American Council of Learned Societies, United States Geological Survey, Battelle Energy Alliance LLC, American Geographical Society. </span></em></p>How and where people spend their money and use energy can influence corporate behavior.Tom Ptak, Assistant Professor of Geography and Environmental Studies, Texas State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1678742021-09-30T12:27:58Z2021-09-30T12:27:58ZWho pays and who benefits from a massive expansion of solar power?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423896/original/file-20210929-22-1f71h5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=12%2C0%2C4181%2C2640&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Aerial view of the 6-megawatt Stanton Solar Farm near Orlando, Fla.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-6-megawatt-stanton-solar-farm-outside-of-orlando-news-photo/1235129161">Paul Hennessy/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Electricity generation produces <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emissions">a quarter of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions</a> that <a href="https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/greenhouse-gases">drive climate change</a>. The electric grid also is highly vulnerable to climate change effects, such as more frequent and severe <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/01/utilities-are-struggling-to-keep-the-lights-on-as-fires-drought-plague-california.html">droughts</a>, <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=49556">hurricanes</a> and <a href="https://www.utilitydive.com/news/the-texas-big-freeze-how-a-changing-climate-pushed-the-states-power-grid/601098/">other extreme weather events</a>. </p>
<p>For both of these reasons, the power sector is central to the Biden administration’s climate policy.</p>
<p>President Joe Biden’s proposal to <a href="https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-releases-solar-futures-study-providing-blueprint-zero-carbon-grid">produce 45% of the nation’s electricity from solar energy</a> by 2050 seeks to transform the power sector from problem child into child prodigy. As the details evolve, two cornerstones have emerged. </p>
<p>First, Biden has repeatedly called for <a href="https://www.reutersevents.com/renewables/solar-pv/biden-seeks-10-year-extension-solar-tax-credit-new-clean-energy-standard">extending tax credits for solar power</a> and other renewables, at a projected cost of <a href="https://www.jct.gov/CMSPages/GetFile.aspx?guid=845e911f-69dc-404c-88fa-d98a18810fe5">US$200 billion over the next decade</a>. Second, his administration has proposed a <a href="https://www.utilitydive.com/news/house-committee-to-mark-up-150b-clean-electricity-performance-program-toda/606422/">Clean Electricity Performance Program</a> to subsidize electric utilities that increase the share of solar in their sales. This initiative is budgeted at $150 billion.</p>
<p>Reduced emissions and cleaner air help everyone, but who ultimately pays for public spending on this scale, and who will reap the economic benefits?</p>
<p>I have <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=9UHYLHEAAAAJ&hl=en&inst=14379318592444324147">studied renewable energy</a> for years, including the allocation of <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3295296">clean energy policies’ costs and benefits</a>. My research focuses on direct economic benefits, such as government subsidies and tax breaks. </p>
<p>By proposing $350 billion in policy incentives, Biden is pushing solar further into the mainstream than ever before. Most of the costs and benefits of this massive solar play are distributed fairly, but I see room for improvement. </p>
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<h2>A break for lower-income households</h2>
<p>Many clean energy policies, including <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/state-local-tribal/basics-portfolio-standards.html">renewable portfolio standards</a> and <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/state-local-tribal/basics-net-metering.html">net metering programs</a> – strategies that <a href="https://www.dsireusa.org/resources/detailed-summary-maps/">dozens of states have adopted</a> – pass their costs onto electricity customers. Renewable portfolio standards require utilities to source a certain share of their power sales from renewable sources. Net metering requires them to credit customers for generating electricity at home, typically from solar power, and feeding it back into the grid. In both cases, power companies bill their customers for associated costs.</p>
<p>It may seem sensible to ask electricity customers to pay for new resources, but rising electricity rates impose heavier burdens on lower-income households. Already, one-third of U.S. households <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0582-0">struggle with energy poverty</a>, spending disproportionately large shares of their income on basic energy needs. The Biden administration avoids such inequities by using tax dollars to fund its solar push. </p>
<p>Many low-income households contribute to federal tax revenue via payroll taxes, but most <a href="https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/how-does-federal-tax-system-affect-low-income-households">do not pay federal income tax</a>. This largely leaves higher-income households to fill the federal tax coffers that finance solar incentives, which reduces the risk of <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardmcgahey/2021/04/30/covid-19-accelerating-economic-trends-including-inequality/?sh=aed9cd62b7c8">widening the income and wealth gap</a>.</p>
<p>A tenfold increase in solar power’s contribution to the U.S. electricity supply would require <a href="https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/12/15/big-affordable-effort-needed-america-reach-net-zero-emissions-2050-princeton-study">significant upgrades to the grid</a>. But not all of these upgrades would be covered by incentives funded with tax dollars, so some would fall to ratepayers. To minimize burdens on lower-income households, the Clean Electricity Performance Program earmarks some of its incentives for electric utilities to <a href="https://www.utilitydive.com/news/house-committee-to-mark-up-150b-clean-electricity-performance-program-toda/606422/">help struggling electricity customers pay their power bills</a>.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Community solar projects enable people who may not own their home or can’t put solar power on their roofs to buy shares in larger projects and receive credit on their electric bills for the power those projects generate.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Direct economic benefits are less widely shared</h2>
<p>While Biden’s proposed solar policies spread costs broadly across U.S. taxpayers, they allocate direct economic benefits more narrowly. The Clean Electricity Performance Program <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-democrats-unveil-details-150-bln-clean-electricity-plan-budget-bill-2021-09-09/">specifically targets electric utilities</a> that sell power to homes, businesses and other end users. </p>
<p>Under the economic plan that Congress is now considering, utilities that grow the share of clean energy in their retail sales <a href="https://energycommerce.house.gov/sites/democrats.energycommerce.house.gov/files/documents/Subtitle%20D_Energy.pdf">by a specified amount</a> compared to the previous year would receive payments based on the amount of clean electricity they add. Utilities that fail to meet the growth target would pay penalties based on how far they fall short.</p>
<p>Electric utilities own many of the country’s existing, <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-in-the-us-generation-capacity-and-sales.php">mostly fossil-fueled power plants</a>. Most have been <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2013/10/16/in-sunny-arizona-a-battle-over-solar-power/">reluctant to promote solar</a>, which would reduce demand for electricity from their own power plants. </p>
<p>But the Clean Electricity Performance Program does not cover another category of power company, called non-utility generators. Instead of selling power to end-use customers, these companies sell electricity to <a href="https://www.raponline.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/rap-lazar-electricityregulationintheus-guide-2011-03.pdf">utilities, marketers or brokers</a>. Non-utility generators provide over 40% of U.S. power and have driven much of the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/solar-power-booms-in-texas-11606579200">recent deployment in solar</a> and other renewables.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423904/original/file-20210929-19356-1pi1q9k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphic showing sources of U.S. electric power." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423904/original/file-20210929-19356-1pi1q9k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423904/original/file-20210929-19356-1pi1q9k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423904/original/file-20210929-19356-1pi1q9k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423904/original/file-20210929-19356-1pi1q9k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423904/original/file-20210929-19356-1pi1q9k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=628&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423904/original/file-20210929-19356-1pi1q9k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=628&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423904/original/file-20210929-19356-1pi1q9k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=628&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">About 60% of the U.S. electricity supply comes from fossil fuels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-in-the-us.php">EIA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Non-utility generators may benefit indirectly if utilities buy solar power from them to comply with the Clean Electricity Performance Program. But by focusing on utilities, the program threatens to alienate non-utility generators and stifle competition. </p>
<p>In contrast, tax credits for solar appear to offer economic benefits for a wide swath of taxpayers. In theory, anyone installing a new solar array on their rooftop or elsewhere earns tax credits for a portion of their investment. But I have found that, in practice, <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2367780">only those with higher tax bills can readily profit</a> from these tax breaks. </p>
<p>Tax credits don’t normally have cash value – they merely reduce the amount you owe to Uncle Sam on April 15. A typical homeowner’s tax bill in the hundreds to low thousands of dollars is easily reduced to zero using part of the solar tax credit. But the remaining credit value will go unused, at least until subsequent tax years. </p>
<p>Since the tax code prohibits “selling” one’s tax credits, <a href="https://www.epa.gov/repowertoolbox/understanding-third-party-ownership-financing-structures-renewable-energy">third-party financiers</a> offer ways to structure solar projects so that the financier’s higher tax bill is used to monetize tax credits, passing part of the value onto homeowners. But such help comes at a price, <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/supporting-renewables-while-saving-taxpayers-money/">diverting a significant portion</a> of these tax incentives away from their intended use and beneficiaries. </p>
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<h2>How to retarget solar policies</h2>
<p>A large-scale expansion of solar power would be an important step toward a low-carbon economy, with huge environmental benefits. A few tweaks could help make the Biden administration’s proposal more efficient and spread its benefits more widely. </p>
<p>As former President Barack Obama suggested in his <a href="https://www.energybusinesslaw.com/2015/02/articles/renewables/key-energy-related-tax-provisions-in-the-2016-budget-proposal/">2016 budget proposal</a>, solar tax credits should have a refundable cash value, like the child tax credit, that <a href="https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/what-child-tax-credit">converts to cash</a> if the recipients don’t owe enough taxes to use the credit. Lower-income households who install solar or buy into community solar projects could use this cash value to take immediate advantage of the credits, regardless of their tax bills.</p>
<p>Expanding the Clean Electricity Performance Program to bring non-utility generators into the fold would foster competition among power producers to help further reduce the cost of solar. Finally, since environmental justice is a <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2021-02-01/pdf/2021-02177.pdf">central theme of Biden’s climate policy</a>, it would make sense to add <a href="https://scholarlycommons.law.wlu.edu/crsj/vol25/iss2/4/">place-based incentives</a> to the solar tax credit provisions that direct clean energy investment toward historically disadvantaged communities to make up for previous environmental injustices.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Felix Mormann does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>President Biden’s proposed solar power expansion would cost $350 billion in federal support over the coming decade. An energy expert explains where that money would come from and who it would help.Felix Mormann, Professor of Law, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1684482021-09-27T18:04:32Z2021-09-27T18:04:32ZHow Sen. Joe Manchin’s support for natural gas could derail Biden’s US climate plan<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423048/original/file-20210923-16-1vi9itz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C0%2C3567%2C2328&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sen. Joe Manchin, a Democrat from the coal state of West Virginia, is in a powerful position for directing the nation's climate future.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/senator-joe-manchin-is-surrounded-by-reporters-as-he-heads-news-photo/1233339223?adppopup=true">Samuel Corum/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>President Joe Biden has a goal for all U.S. electricity to come from zero-carbon sources by 2035. To get there, he’s counting on Congress to approve an ambitious package of incentives and penalties designed to encourage utilities to clean up their power sources. That plan, part of the Democrats’ proposed budget package, may be in trouble.</em></p>
<p><em>Sen. Joe Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat who has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/01/25/manchin-climate-congress/">close ties</a> to the coal, <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2021/01/manchin-holds-the-keys-to-dem-climate-agenda/">oil and gas industries</a> and concerns about the <a href="https://www.utilitydive.com/news/manchin-defends-coal-fired-plants-expresses-concern-over-aggressive-bide/601707/">speed of Biden’s planned emissions cuts</a>, will oversee that part of the budget as chair of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. Manchin has emphasized using “<a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/energy/energy-chairman-manchin-warns-democrats-against-climate-mandates">all energy sources</a>” as “cleanly as possible” and described the idea of eliminating fossil fuels as “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/14/politics/joe-manchin-reconciliation-climate-change/index.html">very, very disturbing</a>.” He <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/19/climate/manchin-climate-biden.html">reportedly wants to lessen</a> the proposed incentives and penalties for utilities, known as the Clean Electricity Payment Program, and reward companies for <a href="https://www.energy.senate.gov/2021/2/manchin-stresses-to-biden-the-need-for-responsible-domestic-natural-gas-production-to-deliver-energy-security-economic-growth-and-emissions-reductions">burning natural gas</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>We asked <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=yZ8k3zMAAAAJ&hl=en">Michael Oppenheimer</a>, director of the Center for Policy Research on Energy and Environment at Princeton University, about the potential impact and alternatives the administration has for reaching its goals.</em></p>
<h2>1. Natural gas was often described as a bridge fuel that could ease the transition from highly polluting coal-fired power plants to scaling up cleaner energy like solar and wind. Can it still play that role, as Sen. Manchin suggests?</h2>
<p>My position on natural gas has changed over the years. For decades, I and a lot of other people thought natural gas would be a bridge fuel. It emitted about half as much carbon dioxide as coal, and it <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=29552">got much cheaper</a> as <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=26112">hydraulic fracturing expanded</a> to make the U.S. the leading gas producer. Utilities on their own started <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=40013">switching away from coal</a>, and anticipation of the Obama administration’s greenhouse gas regulations pushed them faster.</p>
<p>But natural gas has a problem. Its drilling operations, transmission pipelines and distribution systems in cities – every part of that system – are considerably <a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/resources/global-methane-assessment-full-report">more leaky</a> than the Environmental Protection Agency estimated. Natural gas is composed mainly of methane, a greenhouse gas <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-urges-countries-to-slash-methane-emissions-30-heres-why-its-crucial-for-protecting-climate-and-health-and-how-it-can-pay-for-itself-168220">many times more potent</a> per molecule than carbon dioxide, though it doesn’t stay in the atmosphere as long.</p>
<p>We also now know that the world is very close to entering a climatic danger zone. The latest IPCC report <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/">lays out the scientific evidence</a> in the strongest terms for how human activities, particularly those that burn oil, gas and coal, are unequivocally warming the planet in ways that are causing rapid changes in temperatures, precipitation, ice and sea level, and extreme weather.</p>
<p>One of the quickest things a country can do to slow its climate impact is to <a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/resources/global-methane-assessment-full-report">eliminate methane</a> emissions. The gas stays in the atmosphere for only about 12 years, compared to centuries or longer for carbon dioxide. Yet even with minimal leakage, natural gas combustion still produces carbon dioxide. If you’re trying to plan a U.S. energy future, you don’t want to encourage a lot of new fossil fuel infrastructure and exploration. It can’t be a bridge for long enough to justify the investment – the climate can’t bear it.</p>
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<h2>2. Can the US slow down the pace of change and give the energy industry more time, like <a href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/major-utility-questions-bidens-signature-climate-plan/">some utility CEOs</a> and <a href="https://youtu.be/oWyHK2nMcls">Sen. Manchin</a> have suggested?</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, no. We’re already <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">headed for at least 1.5 degrees Celsius</a> of warming, where the Paris Agreement’s danger zone starts, and we anticipate <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">significantly more damage at 2 degrees</a>. Every increment of warming brings more harm. </p>
<p>Climate models show that extreme events, like the <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/western-north-american-extreme-heat-virtually-impossible-without-human-caused-climate-change/">heat waves</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/hurricane-ida-2-reasons-for-its-record-shattering-rainfall-in-nyc-and-the-northeast-long-after-the-winds-weakened-167252">flooding</a> the U.S. saw this summer, are already more common around 1.5 degrees, and they <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-water-cycle-is-intensifying-as-the-climate-warms-ipcc-report-warns-that-means-more-intense-storms-and-flooding-165590">only worsen</a> after that. It’s going to be harder to protect ourselves beyond 1.5 degrees, and much harder beyond 2 degrees. The costs are already getting prohibitive for many communities.</p>
<p>For example, sea level rise is accelerating fast enough that by 2050 in a world headed for 2 degrees of warming, <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-4-sea-level-rise-and-implications-for-low-lying-islands-coasts-and-communities/">many coastal locations around the world</a>, including in the U.S., will face high-water levels every year equal to or greater than their historical 100-year flooding event. Eventually, in some areas, the daily high tide will bring flooding equivalent to that high-water mark.</p>
<p>I’ve been working on these issues since 1981, and it’s been the same story over and over again from many industry officials and politicians – what’s the hurry; let’s wait another year. There was always some argument for slowing action down or putting it off indefinitely. That’s why we’re currently facing one climate disaster after another.</p>
<p>The costs get higher the longer the world delays.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">How global temperatures have shifted year by year since 1951.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. The fossil fuel industry would benefit from billions of dollars in support through the infrastructure bill for carbon capture and storage, which could allow power plants, refineries and factories to continue generating greenhouse gases. Can it meet the U.S. goals?</h2>
<p>The industry was talking about carbon capture and storage as a silver bullet 20 years ago, yet today there are still only about <a href="https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Global-Status-of-CCS-Report-2020_FINAL.pdf">two dozen commercial-scale projects operating worldwide</a>. In the U.S., most involve <a href="https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/BIOENERGY-AND-CARBON-CAPTURE-AND-STORAGE_Perspective_New-Template.pdf">ethanol</a> or fertilizer production or natural gas processing plants, and almost all of them send the captured carbon dioxide for use in enhanced oil recovery, a technique for forcing more oil out of wells. Two attempts to build large power plants with carbon capture, in <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R43028.pdf">Illinois</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/05/science/kemper-coal-mississippi.html">Mississippi</a>, generated a lot of buzz in the early 2000s but ultimately failed, with billions of dollars in cost overruns.</p>
<p>The technology was <a href="https://apnews.com/article/d603daee73654c2db62777d22a70bb77">too</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/05/science/kemper-coal-mississippi.html">expensive</a> then, and it hasn’t gotten cheaper. Our government never found a way to do carbon capture and storage demonstration projects on the scale needed to get out the bugs and reduce the price. </p>
<p>The next question is what are you going to do with all that captured carbon dioxide? There will be local and environmental justice concerns about pipelines and burial. While I recognize that power lines engender opposition, too, why not just spend the effort improving the electric transmission and storage system, to create a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-needs-a-macrogrid-to-move-electricity-from-areas-that-make-it-to-areas-that-need-it-155938">smart grid for renewable energy</a>, reserving carbon sequestration for later in the century in case we need to resort to direct air capture of carbon dioxide? </p>
<h2>4. If the budget bill is weakened, what does that mean for the Biden administration’s commitments to reach <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/22/fact-sheet-president-biden-sets-2030-greenhouse-gas-pollution-reduction-target-aimed-at-creating-good-paying-union-jobs-and-securing-u-s-leadership-on-clean-energy-technologies/">zero-emissions electricity by 2035</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-companies-pledge-net-zero-emissions-to-fight-climate-change-but-what-does-that-really-mean-166547">net-zero emissions</a> overall by 2050?</h2>
<p>The federal budget isn’t the end game. It’s only one step. Because Democrats in Congress plan to use the <a href="https://budget.house.gov/publications/fact-sheet/budget-reconciliation-basics">reconciliation process</a> to move this legislation, this bill has to be about financial incentives and penalties. Beyond that, there is still room for EPA to adopt new and stronger regulation of greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>While those can be undone by future presidents, as we saw <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/climate/trump-environment-rollbacks-list.html">during the Trump administration</a>, the public and Congress are now <a href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/politics-global-warming-december-2020/">starting to understand</a> the price of unrestrained climate change. It’s hard to ignore wildfires that force you from your home or storms that flood your street.</p>
<p>That means it will get harder for the next president to simply repeal all the regulations the way the Trump administration tried to do. I believe the value of having a stable regulatory system will become evident very quickly.</p>
<p>My colleagues at Princeton published a report last winter that laid out <a href="https://netzeroamerica.princeton.edu/the-report">five pathways to get America to net zero emissions</a>. They focused on a few pillars, emphasizing energy efficiency, electrification, renewable energy, biofuels, nuclear energy and carbon capture. In my view, the first three are promising, the last three problematic.</p>
<p>A rapid transition remains doable – but it’s bigger than the slice of the $3.5 trillion now proposed for dealing with climate change. It will require federal mandates, incentives and disincentives to move a lot of private investment away from fossil fuels and into renewables. Mostly, it will require political will and determination – commodities that seem to be the scarcest of all resources.</p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">Read The Conversation daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168448/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Oppenheimer is a paid science advisor to the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF). However, the views expressed in this article are his own and do not necessarily represent those of EDF. Oppenheimer's research is partially supported by various government and foundation grants, including the National Science Foundation and the High Meadows Foundation. Oppenheimer serves (unpaid) on the boards of Climate Central, the Climate Science Legal Defense Fund, the Trust for Governors Island (NYC), and the Metcalf Institute for Marine and Environmental Reporting. </span></em></p>Natural gas was once widely seen as a bridge fuel to renewable energy. But the industry’s methane leaks make it a larger global warming threat than people realized.Michael Oppenheimer, Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs, Princeton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1670182021-09-03T16:41:52Z2021-09-03T16:41:52ZCan burying power lines protect storm-wracked electric grids? Not always<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419297/original/file-20210903-25-6x1lkw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=53%2C0%2C6000%2C3970&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Outages left downtown New Orleans in the dark after Hurricane Ida made landfall on Aug. 29, 2021. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-downtown-skyline-along-canal-street-is-largely-shrouded-news-photo/1234955061">Michael Robinson Chavez/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The good news when <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/144701.shtml?tswind120">Hurricane Ida</a> churned into Louisiana on Aug. 29, 2021 was that levees held up – especially those that were strengthened after Hurricane Katrina flooded New Orleans in 2005. The bad news: In many places, power systems failed. Nearly five days later, more than 80% of New Orleans customers were <a href="https://www.wdsu.com/article/new-orleans-entergy-power-outages/37471862">still in the dark</a>, in sweltering heat.</p>
<p>Electricity is critical for health, safety and comfort. Without it, it’s hard to buy groceries, fuel your car or <a href="https://www.nolaweekend.com/whats-open-where-to-find-food-gas-groceries-in-new-orleans-metro-area-after-hurricane-ida/">get cash from an ATM</a>. Many medical devices, including power wheelchairs, ventilators and nebulizers, run on electricity. <a href="https://www.nola.com/news/article_7941053c-09c6-11ec-baf3-5f5d9d25af67.html">Schools can’t operate without power</a>, and kids can’t attend class online without computers or electricity.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/louisiana-assesses-major-damage-power-grid-ida-2021-08-31/">Dramatic images of damaged power lines</a> can make people wonder whether their electricity service might be more secure if those lines were buried underground. But I’ve <a href="https://bear.warrington.ufl.edu/centers/purc/docs//papers/1007_Kury_Evidence_Driven_Utility.pdf">studied this question</a> for utilities and regulators, and the answer is not straightforward. There are many ways to make power grids more resilient, but they are all costly, require the involvement of many agencies, businesses and power customers, and may not solve the problem.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419299/original/file-20210903-21-r8ir2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Roadside construction in Paradise, Calif. where utility is moving power lines underground." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419299/original/file-20210903-21-r8ir2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419299/original/file-20210903-21-r8ir2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419299/original/file-20210903-21-r8ir2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419299/original/file-20210903-21-r8ir2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419299/original/file-20210903-21-r8ir2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419299/original/file-20210903-21-r8ir2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419299/original/file-20210903-21-r8ir2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Utilities are burying power lines in California, where above-ground electrical lines and equipment have sparked deadly wildfires in recent years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/WildfiresBuryingPowerLines/d7bb4ffce2ff4a18bebf1930f889b108/photo">AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>It’s impossible to completely protect the grid</h2>
<p>Ideas for making the electricity grid more resilient to weather and disasters have to acknowledge two unpleasant realities. First, there is no way to completely protect the grid. </p>
<p>Above-ground lines are vulnerable to damaging winds, flying debris and falling trees. But underground lines are susceptible to damage from water incursion driven by storm surges or flooding. So, choosing the location of power lines means choosing which threat is more manageable. </p>
<p>Second, the public ultimately pays for maintaining the power grid, either via their electric bills or through taxes. The greatest responsibility facing utilities, their regulators and government agencies is ensuring that people receive benefits commensurate with the money they pay for their electricity service.</p>
<p>Deciding how to make the grid more resilient begins locally. In general, the best place to locate power lines depends on what type of damage is most likely in that area. If a region is more concerned with storm surge and flooding, the best choice may be locating power lines above ground, with regular tree trimming to keep branches from falling on power lines. Power poles made from resilient materials, such as fiberglass composites and concrete, can withstand damaging winds and flying debris better than traditional wooden poles.</p>
<p>Areas with little risk of storm surge and flooding may decide that underground power lines are the best choice, if the community is willing to accept the cost. No system is sustainable if customers aren’t <a href="https://www.eei.org/issuesandpolicy/electricreliability/undergrounding/documents/undergroundreport.pdf">willing to pay for it</a>. Differences in geography, population density, societal preferences and willingness to pay across a utility’s service area – especially in a diverse city like New Orleans – mean that no blanket policy will work everywhere. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1433731422066520086"}"></div></p>
<h2>Working with regulators</h2>
<p>When an electric utility wants to make changes to the grid, it needs approval from a regulator. This can take many forms. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.publicpower.org/">Municipal utilities</a> owned by individual cities make those decisions at the local government level. <a href="https://www.electric.coop/">Cooperative</a>, or customer-owned, utilities make those decisions through an executive board comprised of utility customers. <a href="https://www.eei.org/">Investor-owned utilities</a>, which serve the majority of the U.S. population, are regulated at the <a href="https://www.naruc.org/">state level</a> by public utility commissions. Any discussion of grid resilience starts and ends with these agencies.</p>
<p>The situation in New Orleans is especially complex. Through a <a href="http://www.dnr.louisiana.gov/sec/execdiv/techasmt/electricity/electric_vol1_1994/003e.htm">history of bankruptcies and reorganizations</a>, New Orleans is the only U.S. city that regulates an investor-owned utility when a state regulator performs the same function. </p>
<p>This means that power company <a href="https://www.entergy-louisiana.com/">Entergy</a>’s operations inside of New Orleans are regulated by the New Orleans City Council, while the company’s actions elsewhere across the state are overseen by the Louisiana Public Service Commission. As a result, Entergy can have distinct rates, standards for service and regulatory objectives inside and outside of New Orleans. This system allows the New Orleans City Council to focus on issues that are important to the city, but it also makes the regulatory environment more complex.</p>
<h2>The trouble with transmission</h2>
<p>The electric transmission system has several sections. High-voltage transmission lines move power over long distances from generating plants to areas of high demand, such as cities. From there, distribution networks deliver electricity to neighborhoods and individual homes or buildings.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419303/original/file-20210903-15-seoxa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Infographic of the power grid." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419303/original/file-20210903-15-seoxa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419303/original/file-20210903-15-seoxa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419303/original/file-20210903-15-seoxa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419303/original/file-20210903-15-seoxa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419303/original/file-20210903-15-seoxa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419303/original/file-20210903-15-seoxa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419303/original/file-20210903-15-seoxa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The US electricity grid has hundreds of thousands of miles of high-voltage power lines and millions of miles of low-voltage power lines.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/delivery-to-consumers.php">EIA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Hurricane Ida collapsed a transmission tower carrying high-voltage power lines in Jefferson Parish, Louisiana, which is immediately west of New Orleans. This caused all eight transmission lines that supply power to the city and surrounding parishes to fail. </p>
<p>Hardening the transmission grid is more challenging than protecting distribution lines. Voltage is like the <a href="https://www.freeingenergy.com/understanding-the-basics-of-electricity-by-thinking-of-it-as-water/">pressure that pushes water through a hose</a>, so a high-voltage transmission line handles an intense flow, like a fire hose. Power is “stepped down” to lower voltages when it enters the distribution system, so the power moving through a distribution line is analogous to water flowing through a garden hose. </p>
<p>Burying transmission lines is technically feasible, and may be practical over short distances. But all power lines lose some of the electricity they carry as heat – and if this heat builds up, it ultimately restricts the line’s ability to carry power over longer distances. Air effectively dissipates heat from above-ground lines, but buried lines are more vulnerable to heating.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/i5WvDpjqXuo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">In this 2013 video, a nonprofit Georgia transmission corporation explains the complexities of burying high-voltage transmission lines.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Relocating transmission lines or building extra lines as backups may be the only options for strengthening the system in many places. But building new high-voltage power lines is challenging. </p>
<p>Many people are concerned about <a href="https://www.epa.gov/radtown/electric-and-magnetic-fields-power-lines">possible health risks from exposure to electromagnetic fields</a>, which emanate from high-voltage lines. Regulatory agencies struggle with finding acceptable sites and allocating the costs of these projects.</p>
<p>Investment in the U.S. transmission system <a href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2020/10/f79/2020%20Congestion%20Study%20FINAL%2022Sept2020.pdf">has increased</a> over the past 15 years, but more is needed. The Grid Deployment Authority proposed in the bipartisan <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/08/02/updated-fact-sheet-bipartisan-infrastructure-investment-and-jobs-act/">Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act</a> would address some of the challenges of transmission line siting, but other hurdles will remain.</p>
<h2>Managing expectations</h2>
<p>Whatever steps utilities take to harden the grid, there still are circumstances when the power will go out – especially during climate-driven disasters like wildfires and tropical storms. It’s easier to talk about making the power grid more resilient soon after disasters, but the conversation needs to continue after power is restored. In my view, the only way to solve this challenge is by finding ways for utilities, regulators, businesses and customers to transparently discuss the most feasible ways to keep the lights on.</p>
<p>[<em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167018/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Theodore Kury is the Director of Energy Studies at the University of Florida’s Public Utility Research Center, which is sponsored in part by the Florida electric and gas utilities and the Florida Public Service Commission, none of which has editorial control of any of the content the Center produces.</span></em></p>Hurricane Ida left the entire city of New Orleans in the dark and renewed discussion of burying power lines. But there’s no way to completely protect the grid, above ground or below.Theodore J. Kury, Director of Energy Studies, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1651822021-08-12T14:48:41Z2021-08-12T14:48:41ZSame old funding model can’t keep South African cities going or serve residents<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414767/original/file-20210805-27-6x7jn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Soweto residents protest over lack of electricity</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Fani Mahuntsi/Gallo Images via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Local government, neglected under apartheid in South Africa, was elevated in the 1996 constitution so as to strengthen democracy and help redress past inequities. The idea was that by making services (water, electricity, and refuse) accessible and affordable, national government would be legitimised.</p>
<p>But in 2021, South Africa’s municipalities are in <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/412459/the-shocking-state-of-south-africas-municipalities-uncovered/">dire straits</a>. They are mired by service delivery failures, poor management, financial mismanagement, billing crises and power outages. The electricity cuts are due to ageing and failing infrastructure, compounded by electricity supply cuts by <a href="http://www.hsrc.ac.za/en/review/hsrc-review-dec-2018/service-delivery-protests">Eskom</a>. The <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2021-06-30-auditor-general-appalled-by-the-state-of-municipal-finances/">Auditor General has said</a> that almost half of the country’s municipalities are under financial strain and are likely to get worse. </p>
<p>South Africa’s constitution allocates three revenue sources to municipalities to fulfil their mandate: property taxes; surpluses generated from services; and funding transfers from national government. Electricity is by far the biggest contributor among the services, and always has been. But this funding model comes with significant risks. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/local-government-in-south-africa-is-broken-but-giving-the-job-to-residents-carries-risks-155970">Local government in South Africa is broken: but giving the job to residents carries risks</a>
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<p>For my <a href="https://open.uct.ac.za/bitstream/handle/11427/32214/thesis_ebe_2020_covary%20theodore.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">PhD</a>, also published as a <a href="https://www.amazon.com/dp/0620931051">book</a>, I traced events to gain an understanding of the evolution of this income stream and the practice that supports it. Documents from as far back as the early 1900s show that the municipal funding model remains largely unchanged. If this deeply entrenched <a href="https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803100310271">path dependent</a> practice isn’t understood, it will undermine necessary reform – and not for the first time. It will place further pressure on municipal finances and service delivery and ultimately erode national government legitimacy. </p>
<h2>South Africa’s municipal funding model</h2>
<p>Since the country was formed into a <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/union-south-africa-1910">Union</a> between the British and Afrikaners in 1910, South African municipalities have only had one true revenue source: property taxes. But this has always been insufficient, and unpopular. Thus, the British system of generating surpluses from the provision of services provided a solution for local government politicians who sought to please the electorate with greatest influence – property owners. They argued that it encouraged property development. </p>
<p>Municipal electricity departments, however, were vehemently against cross-subsidisation, referring to it as the relief of rates. For them it was an indirect and inequitable tax. And it created the perverse incentive to defer maintenance and capital investment to fund other projects and keep increasing electricity tariffs to fund revenue shortfalls. In short, the practice was unsustainable. </p>
<p>For over 20 years, the Association of Municipal Electricity Undertakings fought to terminate or cap surpluses, but finally gave up in 1945, when it became evident that national government had no intention of financing municipalities or giving them other ways to raise revenue. This entrenched the chosen path of municipal funding.</p>
<p>When democracy finally came to South Africa in 1994, the opportunity to change was missed. Both the outgoing and new governments agreed (for their own reasons) that local government should be strong. This approach was also supported by the mainstream economic <a href="https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/386101468739238037/the-political-economy-of-democratic-decentralization">theory</a> that by being closer to citizens, municipalities are better placed to understand community needs. </p>
<p>The 1996 <a href="https://www.etu.org.za/toolbox/docs/govern/spheres.html">constitution</a> elevated local government to a sphere of government – an equal partner with protected functions and revenue sources. Local government was allocated two exclusive revenue sources: property tax and the existing practice of relief of rates. The past, once again, decided the future. </p>
<p>The ink on the constitution had hardly dried before national government announced <a href="http://www.tips.org.za/files/Competition_and_Regulation_in_the_Electricity_Supply_Industry_in_South_Africa.pdf">plans to reform</a> the electricity distribution sector (municipalities and the national utility, Eskom). Key drivers of reform included attracting new investment, broadening economic ownership, increasing operational efficiencies, energy security, and stabilising prices. This would alleviate the distribution burden for smaller municipalities, with the larger ones participating in the new structure. </p>
<p>More than ten years and several billion rand later, the plan was <a href="https://www.cesa.co.za/node/117/">shelved</a>. This was because Eskom, local and national government could not agree on a structure, and without a constitutional change the deadlock could not be broken. National government withdrew. </p>
<p>During this time, municipalities continued to rely on electricity surplus revenues, but delayed capital investments while awaiting the final outcome of the reform process. And they happened to benefit from steep tariff <a href="https://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/362660-eskom-electricity-prices-1994-to-2020.html">hikes</a> from 2007 onwards (180% in real terms by 2020), deepening the “stickiness” of the practice. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/small-towns-are-collapsing-across-south-africa-how-its-starting-to-affect-farming-162697">Small towns are collapsing across South Africa. How it's starting to affect farming</a>
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<p>The tide turned in 2017. High tariffs, environmental imperatives of climate change, <a href="https://www.ameu.co.za/Embedded_Generation_update_-_P_Lutchman.pdf">self-generation</a> and a decade of low or no <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/southafrica/overview">economic growth</a> all took their toll. Stagnant revenue due to decreased demand and eroded margins meant that, by 2020, surpluses became deficits and Johannesburg’s City Power (with particularly acute mismanagement) had a R5.6 billion (US$400 million) <a href="https://www.citypower.co.za/city-power/Annual%20Reports/2020_2021_Q2_Report%20(Signed).pdf">overdraft</a>. </p>
<h2>History matters</h2>
<p>Electricity surpluses may return, as they have in the past. But my research suggests that the exploitation of surpluses has finally reached its economic limits. The thorny issues raised by the Association of Municipal Electricity Undertakings almost 100 years ago remain relevant:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Municipal electricity tariffs include an indirect tax, making them non-cost reflective. </p></li>
<li><p>High tariffs ignore the needs of poor and large households.</p></li>
<li><p>Inflated tariffs encourage fuel switching by those who can afford it, placing the cross-subsidisation model under further strain. </p></li>
<li><p>Cross-subsidisation compromises prudent accounting practices like depreciation and redemption.</p></li>
<li><p>Electricity provision must be efficient to stimulate the economy.</p></li>
<li><p>Surpluses vary annually. Over-reliance may lead to funding problems if sales decrease.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Ultimately, a century-old, locked-in path has run out of road. Urgent reform is needed as municipal funding shortfalls cannot simply be supplemented by increasing national transfers. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/water-power-cuts-and-neglect-are-taking-their-toll-on-south-africas-top-hospitals-163897">Water, power cuts and neglect are taking their toll on South Africa's top hospitals</a>
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<p>From a national policy perspective, conflicting objectives must be addressed – policies that support cost-reflective tariffs on the one hand and cross-subsidisation on the other. </p>
<p>When it comes to service delivery, neglected infrastructure can no longer lay the proverbial golden egg. Municipalities are over-burdened and many are overwhelmed. This is made worse by their limited scope to raise revenue. New and appropriate income streams, which reflect 21st century reality, are needed – such as non-subsidised property taxes, vehicle congestion charges and city taxes. Finally, it’s questionable whether municipalities should own and operate electricity utilities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165182/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Theo Covary does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The practice of using electricity revenue surpluses to fund other municipal services is running out of road.Theo Covary, Energy policy expert / researcher, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1584832021-04-15T12:39:46Z2021-04-15T12:39:46ZNearly 60 million Americans don’t drink their tap water, research suggests – here’s why that’s a public health problem<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395072/original/file-20210414-15-q3fwpl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5607%2C3732&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Thirsty?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/kitchen-sink-with-running-water-royalty-free-image/168583229">deepblue4you/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine seeing a news report about lead contamination in drinking water in a community that looks like yours. It might make you think twice about whether to drink your tap water or serve it to your kids – especially if you also have experienced tap water problems in the past.</p>
<p>In a new study, my colleagues <a href="https://profiles.stanford.edu/anisha-patel?tab=research-and-scholarship">Anisha Patel</a>, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Francesca-Weaks">Francesca Weaks</a> and I estimate that approximately 61.4 million people in the U.S. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.04.06.21255016">did not drink their tap water</a> as of 2017-2018. Our research, which was released in preprint format on April 8, 2021, and has not yet been peer reviewed, found that this number has grown sharply in the past several years.</p>
<p>Other research has shown that about 2 million Americans <a href="https://www.urbanwaterslearningnetwork.org/resources/closing-the-water-access-gap-in-the-united-states-a-national-action-plan-nov-2019/">don’t have access to clean water</a>. Taking that into account, our findings suggest that about 59 million people have tap water access from either their municipality or private wells or cisterns, but don’t drink it. While some may have contaminated water, others <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/10/12/769783763/philadelphia-promotes-tap-water-amid-national-distrust">may be avoiding water that’s actually safe</a>.</p>
<p>Water insecurity is an underrecognized but growing problem in the U.S. Tap water distrust is part of the problem. And it’s critical to understand what drives it, because people who don’t trust their tap water shift to more expensive and often less healthy options, like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1468">bottled water or sugary drinks</a>.</p>
<p>I’m a human biologist and have studied <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=c89wo3AAAAAJ&hl=en">water and health</a> for the past decade in places as diverse as Lowland Bolivia and northern Kenya. Now I run the <a href="https://hhd.psu.edu/bbh/research/research-labs/water-health-and-nutrition-lab">Water, Health, and Nutrition Laboratory</a> at Pennsylvania State University. To understand water issues, I talk to people and use large datasets to see whether a problem is unique or widespread, and stable or growing.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vcCXCPD4lYY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A video from the South Coast Water District in southern California urges customers to choose tap water over bottled water.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>An epidemic of distrust</h2>
<p>According to our research, there’s a growing epidemic of tap water distrust and disuse in the U.S. In a 2020 study, <a href="https://anthropology.northwestern.edu/people/faculty/sera-young.html">anthropologist Sera Young</a> and I found that tap water avoidance was declining before the Flint water crisis that began in 2014. In 2015-2016, however, it started to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR027657">increase again for children</a>. </p>
<p>Our new study found that in 2017-2018, the number of Americans who didn’t drink tap water increased at an alarmingly high rate, particularly for Black and Hispanic adults and children. Since 2013-2014 – just before the <a href="https://theconversation.com/michigan-says-flint-water-is-safe-to-drink-but-residents-trust-in-government-has-corroded-95358">Flint water crisis</a> began – the prevalence of adults who do not drink their tap water has <a href="https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.04.06.21255016">increased by 40%</a>. Among children, not consuming tap has risen by 63%.</p>
<p>To calculate this change, we used data from the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nhanes/about_nhanes.htm">National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey</a>, a nationally representative survey that releases data in two-year cycles. Sampling weights that use demographic characteristics ensure that the people being sampled are representative of the broader U.S. population.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395110/original/file-20210414-23-1ek1uge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A city worker loads bottled water into a pickup truck." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395110/original/file-20210414-23-1ek1uge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395110/original/file-20210414-23-1ek1uge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395110/original/file-20210414-23-1ek1uge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395110/original/file-20210414-23-1ek1uge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395110/original/file-20210414-23-1ek1uge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395110/original/file-20210414-23-1ek1uge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395110/original/file-20210414-23-1ek1uge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jackson, Mississippi, residents pick up bottled water at a city distribution center on Feb. 18, 2021. Much of the city was without because of problems at its water treatment plant.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/WinterWeatherDeepSouth/a0ea7533576145119a3740a170af3eb6/photo">AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Racial disparities in tap water consumption</h2>
<p>Communities of color have long experienced environmental injustice across the U.S. Black, Hispanic and Native American residents are more likely to live in environmentally disadvantaged neighborhoods, with exposure to water that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12397">violates</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2007361117">quality standards</a>.</p>
<p>Our findings reflect these experiences. We calculated that Black and Hispanic children and adults are two to three times more likely to report not drinking their tap water than members of white households. In 2017-2018, roughly 3 out of 10 Black adults and children and nearly 4 of 10 Hispanic adults and children didn’t drink their tap water. Approximately 2 of 10 Asian Americans didn’t drink from their tap, while only 1 of 10 white Americans didn’t drink their tap water. </p>
<p>When children don’t drink any water on a given day, research shows that they consume <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2019.0693">twice as many calories from sugary drinks</a> as children who drink water. Higher sugary drink consumption increases risk of <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db271.htm">cavities, obesity and cardiometabolic diseases</a>. Drinking tap water provides fluoride, which lowers the risk of cavities. Relying on water alternatives is also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2017WR022186">much more expensive</a> than drinking tap water.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1308458331426549761"}"></div></p>
<h2>What erodes trust</h2>
<p>News reports – particularly high-visibility events like advisories to boil water – lead people to distrust their tap water even after the problem is fixed. For example, a 2019 study showed that water quality violations across the U.S. between 2006 and 2015 led to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1905385116">increases in bottled water purchases</a> in affected counties as a way to avoid tap water, and purchase rates remained elevated after the violation.</p>
<p>The Flint water crisis drew national attention to water insecurity, even though state and federal regulators were <a href="https://shorensteincenter.org/environmental-justice-unjust-coverage-of-the-flint-water-crisis/">slow to respond to residents’ complaints there</a>. Soon afterward, lead contamination was found in the water supply of Newark, New Jersey; the city is currently <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/us/newark-lead-drinking-water-contamination-lawsuit-settlement/index.html">replacing all lead service lines</a> under a legal settlement. Elsewhere, media outlets and advocacy groups have reported finding tap water samples contaminated with <a href="https://www.ewg.org/interactive-maps/pfas_contamination/">industrial chemicals</a>, <a href="https://www.consumerreports.org/water-quality/how-safe-is-our-drinking-water-a0101771201/">lead, arsenic</a> and <a href="https://www.consumerreports.org/water-quality/more-than-25-million-americans-drink-from-the-worst-water-systems/#analysis">other contaminants</a>. </p>
<p>Many other factors can <a href="https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2016.143">cause people to distrust their water supply</a>, including smell, taste and appearance, as well as lower income levels. Location is also an issue: Older U.S. cities with aging infrastructure are more prone to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0739456X20904431">water shutoffs and water quality problems</a>. </p>
<p>It’s important not to blame people for distrusting what comes out of their tap, because those fears are rooted in history. In my view, addressing water insecurity requires a two-part strategy: ensuring that everyone has access to clean water, and increasing trust so people who have safe water will use it.</p>
<p><iframe id="e8SWm" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/e8SWm/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Building confidence</h2>
<p>As part of his proposed infrastructure plan, President Joe Biden is asking Congress for <a href="https://waterfm.com/biden-unveils-2-trillion-infrastructure-plan-water-sector-reacts/">US$111 billion</a> to improve water delivery systems, replace lead pipelines and tackle other contaminants. The plan also proposes improvements for small water systems and underserved communities.</p>
<p>These are critical steps to rebuild trust. Yet, in my view, the Environmental Protection Agency should also provide better public education about water quality testing and <a href="https://www.drinkingwateralliance.org/aqwa">targeted interventions for vulnerable populations</a>, such as children and underserved communities. Initiatives to simplify and improve water quality reports can help people understand what’s in their water and <a href="http://policyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/WaterDataPrize_Report.pdf">what they can do if they think something is wrong with it</a>. </p>
<p><iframe id="gKnlV" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gKnlV/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Who delivers those messages is important. In areas like Flint, where former government officials have been indicted on charges including <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/michigan/flint-water-crisis/2021/01/14/nine-michigan-officials-charged-flint-water-crisis/4161106001/">negligence and perjury in connection with the water crisis</a>, the government’s word alone won’t rebuild trust. Instead, <a href="https://beltmag.com/flint-community-water-lab-trust/">community members can fill this critical role</a>.</p>
<p>Another priority is the 13%-15% of Americans who rely on <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/mission-areas/water-resources/science/domestic-private-supply-wells?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects">private well water</a>, which is <a href="https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-04/documents/epa816f04030.pdf">not regulated under the Safe Drinking Water Act</a>. These households are responsible for their own water quality testing. Public funding would help them test it regularly and address any problems.</p>
<p>Public distrust of tap water in the U.S. reflects decades of policies that have reduced access to reliable, safe drinking water in communities of color. Fixing water lines is important, but so is giving people confidence to turn on the tap.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158483/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Asher Rosinger receives funding from the National Science Foundation on an unrelated project. This work was supported by the Ann Atherton Hertzler Early Career Professorship funds, and the Penn State Population Research Institute (NICHD P2CHD041025). The funders had no role in the research or interpretation of results. </span></em></p>New research finds that tap water avoidance is on the rise in the US, especially among minorities. An expert on water and health calls for better public education about water quality and testing.Asher Rosinger, Assistant Professor of Biobehavioral Health, Anthropology, and Demography. Director, Water, Health, and Nutrition Laboratory, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1558342021-03-02T13:24:07Z2021-03-02T13:24:07ZThe Texas blackouts showed how climate extremes threaten energy systems across the US<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387079/original/file-20210301-19-11yngph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=43%2C7%2C4749%2C2924&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Electric service trucks line up after a snow storm in Fort Worth, Texas, on Feb. 16, 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/pike-electric-service-trucks-line-up-after-a-snow-storm-on-news-photo/1231205567?adppopup=true">Ron Jenkins/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Pundits and politicians have been quick to point fingers over the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/texas-power-grid-was-minutes-from-collapse-during-freeze-operator-says-11614202063">debacle in Texas</a> that left millions without power or clean water during February’s deep freeze. Many have blamed the state’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/21/us/texas-electricity-ercot-blackouts.html">deregulated electricity market</a>, arguing that Texas prioritized cheap power over reliability.</p>
<p>But climate extremes are wreaking increasing havoc on energy systems across the U.S., regardless of local politics or the particulars of regional grids. For example, conservatives argued that <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/news/539038-texas-lawmakers-tweets-mocking-california-power-outages-resurface-amid-winter-storm">over-regulation caused widespread outages in California</a> amid extreme heat and wildfires in the summer of 2020.</p>
<p>As an <a href="https://engineering.purdue.edu/LASCI">engineering professor</a> studying <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=I5tDhsoAAAAJ&hl=en">infrastructure resilience under climate change</a>, I worry about the rising risk of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2018.03.015">climate-triggered outages nationwide</a>. In my view, the events in Texas offer three important lessons for energy planners across the U.S. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ANGcms9OQd8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Extreme weather poses a growing threat to power systems across the U.S.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Not enough attention to climate extremes</h2>
<p>Experts widely agree that the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or <a href="http://www.ercot.com/">ERCOT</a>, the nonprofit corporation that manages the power grid for most of the state, failed to anticipate <a href="https://www.economist.com/united-states/2021/02/17/the-freeze-in-texas-exposes-americas-infrastructural-failings">how sharply demand would spike</a> prior to the February cold wave. ERCOT has a record of lacking capacity to meet winter demand surges. The state grid <a href="https://www.statesman.com/article/20110411/NEWS/304119704">nearly collapsed during a 2011 winter storm</a> and experienced another <a href="https://www.statesman.com/article/20140107/BUSINESS/301079651">close call</a> in 2014, narrowly avoiding rolling blackouts.</p>
<p>But grid operators elsewhere have also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67695-y">underestimated how climate extremes can influence electricity demand</a>. I see many similarities between <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/19/power-outages-texas-california-climate-crisis">California’s summer 2020 power crisis</a> and recent events in Texas.</p>
<p>In both cases, extreme weather caused an unexpected increase in demand and reduced generation capacity at the same time. Because energy operators did not foresee these effects, they had to <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/18/texas-power-outages-ercot/">resort to rolling blackouts</a> to avert even bigger disasters.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1294479825910943746"}"></div></p>
<p>In studies I have conducted in my research lab and in collaboration with <a href="https://scholar.google.de/citations?user=mU4l0vIAAAAJ&hl=en">hydroclimatologist Rohini Kumar</a>, we have found that energy planners in many parts of the U.S. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15393-8">substantially underestimate</a> how sensitive electricity demand is to climate factors. This tendency has significant implications for the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13192">security and reliability of the power systems</a>. </p>
<p>For example, in a study published in April 2020 we analyzed the use of artificial intelligence models for energy forecasting that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15393-8">accounted for the role of humidity</a> in addition to air temperature. We found that such models could make forecasts of energy demand for air conditioning on hot days significantly more accurate across the U.S. More accurate demand forecasts help energy planners understand how much power they will need to meet peak demand during weather extremes.</p>
<p>Grid operators can prepare more effectively for the effects of climate change on both supply and demand by using forecasting models and software that academic researchers have already developed. Many of these new solutions have been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15393-8">published in open-access journals</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387070/original/file-20210301-12-1p5e53w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphic showing demand increases in Minneapolis, Madison, Chicago, Cleveland, Columbus and Indianapolis." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387070/original/file-20210301-12-1p5e53w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387070/original/file-20210301-12-1p5e53w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387070/original/file-20210301-12-1p5e53w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387070/original/file-20210301-12-1p5e53w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387070/original/file-20210301-12-1p5e53w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387070/original/file-20210301-12-1p5e53w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387070/original/file-20210301-12-1p5e53w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Results published in the journal Climactic Change from a model that predicts how much summertime electricity and water use in Midwest cities could increase due to climate change between 2030 and 2052. These projections only consider climate effects, not other factors such as population growth or technological shifts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.purdue.edu/uns/images/2020/nateghi-cities.jpg">Greg Simmons/Purdue University</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Water, electricity and natural gas are connected</h2>
<p>Electricity, water and natural gas are essential resources, and it’s hard to have any of them without the others. For example, drilling for natural gas consumes electricity and water. Many power plants burn natural gas to generate electricity. And transporting water and gas requires electricity to pump them through pipelines.</p>
<p>Because of these tight connections, outages in one system are bound to ripple through the others and create a cascade of service disruptions. For example, during the Texas cold wave, pumps used to extract gas in West Texas <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/16/natural-gas-power-storm/">could not operate</a> because of electricity outages. This cut state gas field production in half, which in turn strained gas-fired electricity production. Power failures also <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/20/texas-power-water-outages/">hampered water pumping and treatment</a>, potentially allowing bacteria to <a href="https://www.inquirer.com/weather/texas-power-outages-safe-drinking-water-20210219.html">seep into water supplies</a>. </p>
<p>In a collaborative project connecting researchers at <a href="https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1832688&HistoricalAwards=false">Purdue University</a>, the <a href="https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1832711">University of Southern California</a>, and the <a href="https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1832683">University of California-Santa Cruz</a>, we are analyzing ways to prevent this kind of cascading outage. One promising strategy is to install distributed generation sources, such as solar panels or small wind turbines with batteries, at critical interconnection points between energy, water and natural gas systems.</p>
<p>For their part, consumers also need to understand these connections. Taking a hot shower or running a dishwasher consumes water, along with electricity or gas to heat it. These crunch points often cause trouble during crises. For instance, recent advisories urging Texans to boil their water before using it put extra pressure on already-scarce energy supplies.</p>
<p>Our research shows that utilities need to pay more attention to connections between <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114419">natural gas and electricity</a>, and between <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113466">water and electricity</a>. By doing so, planners can see more accurately how climate conditions will affect demand, particularly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02669-7">under climate change</a>. Rampant gas shortages and electricity and water outages in Texas are a sign that infrastructure operators need to understand more clearly how tightly related these resources are, not only during normal operation but also during crises that can disrupt all of them at once. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387076/original/file-20210301-15-u2h27p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People bundled in blankets sit on chairs in a furniture showroom." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387076/original/file-20210301-15-u2h27p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387076/original/file-20210301-15-u2h27p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387076/original/file-20210301-15-u2h27p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387076/original/file-20210301-15-u2h27p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387076/original/file-20210301-15-u2h27p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387076/original/file-20210301-15-u2h27p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387076/original/file-20210301-15-u2h27p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People with no power at their homes rest inside a Gallery Furniture store in Houston after the owner opened the business as a shelter on Feb. 16, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/WinterWeatherTexasPowerFailures/7fb328d93ba34b48a68c84cfca9fb3a4/photo?Query=winter%20weather%20blackouts&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=222&currentItemNo=43">AP Photo/David J. Phillip</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The future will be different</h2>
<p>Some commentaries on the Texas disaster have called it a “<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blackswan.asp">black swan event</a>” that could never have been predicted – or even worse, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2021/02/20/a-dangerous-narrative-emerges-in-the-wake-of-texas-power-blackouts/?sh=cc2f06e3ab21">a “meteor strike</a>.” In fact, the state published a <a href="http://tdem.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/txHazMitPlan.pdf">hazard mitigation plan</a> in 2018 that clearly warned of the potential for severe winter weather to cause widespread outages. And it noted that such events would be far more disruptive in Texas than in other regions that experience harsher winters. </p>
<p>In a 2016 study, several colleagues and I warned that current grid reliability metrics and standards across the U.S. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12401">were inadequate</a>, especially with respect to climate risks. We concluded that those standards “fail to provide a sufficient incentive structure for the utilities to adequately ensure high levels of reliability for end‐users, particularly during large‐scale climate events.” </p>
<p>As I see it, a dominant paradigm of “faster, better, cheaper” in energy planning is placing increasing pressure on our nation’s aging infrastructure. I believe it is time for energy planners to be more proactive and make smart investments in measures that will help power systems handle extreme weather events.</p>
<p>Key steps should include leveraging <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2018.2792680">predictive analytics</a> to inform disaster planning; accounting for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-72207-z">climate uncertainty</a> in infrastructure management; upgrading reliability standards for power transmission and distribution systems; and diversifying the mix of fuels that all states use to generate electricity. Without such steps, frequent disruptions of critical services could become the new norm, with <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-behind-15-000-electricity-bills-in-texas-155822">high costs</a> and heavy impacts – especially on the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/16/climate/texas-blackout-storm-minorities.html">most vulnerable Americans</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155834/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roshanak (Roshi) Nateghi receives funding from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>There will be more weather-driven disasters like February’s deep freeze in Texas, and energy planners aren’t prepared.Roshanak (Roshi) Nateghi, Associate Professor of Industrial Engineering, Purdue UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1558222021-02-24T13:29:25Z2021-02-24T13:29:25ZWhat’s behind $15,000 electricity bills in Texas?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385940/original/file-20210223-17-1dt000s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=45%2C15%2C5077%2C3344&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Power to the people, but it will cost you.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-u-s-and-texas-flags-fly-in-front-of-high-voltage-news-photo/1303397476?adppopup=true">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Texans who made it through February’s extreme cold weather without losing power or natural gas must have felt lucky. </p>
<p>But for some, keeping their electricity through the blackout may turn out to be more traumatic than losing it. An undetermined number of homeowners have been shocked to receive bills running into the thousands of dollars – in some cases, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/20/us/texas-storm-electric-bills.html">over US$15,000 for a month’s worth of power</a>. </p>
<p>As someone who has spent the past two decades <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=07sAJX8AAAAJ&hl=en">studying electricity deregulation</a>, I know that extreme power bills in Texas result partly from the state’s market-driven approach to running the power grid. But decisions by state regulators also had a hand. Measures that were originally intended to give logical signals to the electricity market and encourage conservation during very hot spells were not up to the task of managing this cold-weather crisis.</p>
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<h2>Shopping for power</h2>
<p>Along with 16 other states, Texas has <a href="https://www.electricchoice.com/map-deregulated-energy-markets/">deregulated its power generation market</a>. The Texas market has a wholesale and a retail component, like the markets for many other goods. </p>
<p>In the wholesale power market, companies that generate electricity compete with one another to provide power on a market run by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or <a href="http://www.ercot.com/">ERCOT</a>. In the retail market, other companies buy power wholesale from ERCOT, add transmission and distribution charges to the wholesale generation cost and resell that electricity to households and businesses.</p>
<p>These resellers include Texas’ <a href="https://www.electricchoice.com/blog/guide-texas-electricity-deregulation/">five electric utilities</a>, which offer fixed and regulated prices in the areas of the state that they serve. Hundreds of others, known as retail providers in the Texas system, are unregulated and can offer electricity to consumers at any terms and at any price. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385954/original/file-20210223-22-hkg37x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Schematic of wholesale and retail power markets." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385954/original/file-20210223-22-hkg37x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385954/original/file-20210223-22-hkg37x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=242&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385954/original/file-20210223-22-hkg37x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=242&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385954/original/file-20210223-22-hkg37x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=242&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385954/original/file-20210223-22-hkg37x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385954/original/file-20210223-22-hkg37x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385954/original/file-20210223-22-hkg37x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In wholesale electric power markets, generators compete to sell power to resellers. In retail power markets, companies resell power directly to customers. Retail competition allows customers to choose from their local utility or other suppliers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://learn.pjm.com/electricity-basics/market-for-electricity.aspx">PJM</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>About 85% of Texans <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2015/08/12/report-deregulated-electric-utilities-narrowing-pr/">live in areas with retail competition</a>. They can choose to get electric service from a retail provider rather than staying with the local utility if they believe the retailer offers a better deal. </p>
<p>But when homeowners <a href="http://powertochoose.org/en-US">choose a provider online</a>, they may not understand what they are signing up for. In particular, some plans bill customers at fixed rates, while others charge varying rates that reflect wholesale market conditions. Even with the best communications from retailers, the prospect of lower electric rates may lead some consumers to discount the possibility of high or volatile bills.</p>
<p>ERCOT’s wholesale prices will occasionally spike to very high levels, and customers who get their power through market-based contracts have to pay those high prices. But price spikes don’t normally last for very long - typically for a few hours and mostly during the summer. And they can have some benefit, since they give electric retailers opportunities to <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/pulse-power-giving-away-a-tesla-model-3-to-encourage-conservation-during-winter-storm-emergency-301228194.html">inform customers about the value of energy conservation</a>.</p>
<p>That was how the Texas electricity market was supposed to work. It was not designed for the severe and sustained shortages that arrived with the cold wave. </p>
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<h2>Sticker shock</h2>
<p>When cold weather arrived in Texas over Valentine’s weekend, prices on the ERCOT market rose to $9,000 per megawatt-hour – the maximum price allowable by the <a href="https://www.puc.texas.gov/">Public Utility Commission of Texas</a> – for a few hours before falling. One megawatt-hour is roughly equivalent to the amount of electricity used by <a href="https://www.cleanenergyauthority.com/solar-energy-resources/what-is-a-megawatt-and-a-megawatt-hour">330 homes for one hour</a>. </p>
<p>By Feb. 15, however, the commission triggered an emergency provision, ordering ERCOT to <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/021621-texas-regulators-keep-prices-near-9000mwh-cap-during-rotating-outages">maintain its $9,000-per-megawatt-hour maximum</a> all week. This mechanism is meant to send a price signal when demand is high, giving customers an incentive to conserve energy. If it works, demand will fall, along with prices, and the grid will stay in balance. But scarcity is not the same thing as the near-complete collapse of the Texas grid resulting from freezing weather and fuel shortages.</p>
<p>A large household in Texas with a lot of electric heating might have used 500 kilowatt-hours of electricity – that is, 0.5 megawatt-hours – during this very cold week. Under normal ERCOT winter prices, that household would have paid around $30 for electricity. But because the ERCOT price was kept at $9,000 per megawatt-hour for so long, this household would have paid $4,500 in electric bills for that week alone if it had signed up for a market-based contract with an unregulated retail supplier.</p>
<p>In sum, the sky-high electric bills in Texas are partly due to a deregulated electricity system that allowed volatile wholesale costs to be passed directly to some consumers. If prices in the Texas retail market had remained regulated, utilities and their regulators would likely have figured out some way to spread those high electric costs out over time instead of hitting customers all at once. But the state public utility commission also contributed by <a href="https://www.puc.texas.gov/agency/resources/pubs/news/2021/PUCTX-REL-COLD21-021521-EMERGorder-FIN.pdf">setting the ERCOT price at $9,000 per megawatt-hour</a> and keeping it there for a week, ensuring that bills for some Texans would skyrocket. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Texans who live in areas of the state where the sale of electricity is open to retail competition may have the option to choose among hundreds of plans with widely varying prices and terms.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Consumers may not have realized what was happening on the ERCOT market until their bills arrived in the mail or their credit cards were charged. Retailers can try to communicate with consumers, but households can’t automatically move back to fixed utility rates just because the ERCOT price is high. They can contact their power provider and ask to switch, but this is unlikely to happen in the middle of a power crisis.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 100,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>Texas officials have called for investigations, and may enact measures to help people who have received huge bills, although consumers are likely to foot <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-22/texans-will-pay-for-the-state-s-power-crisis-for-decades-to-come">much if not all of the cost</a>. Meanwhile, the larger question of how to handle severe electricity shortages remains to be solved before the next cold wave.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155822/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Seth Blumsack receives funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, Heising-Simons Foundation, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection and electric utilities.</span></em></p>Some Texans are receiving eye-popping electric bills after power providers passed on volatile costs to some of their customers – legally.Seth Blumsack, Professor of Energy and Environmental Economics and International Affairs, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1555272021-02-18T21:41:39Z2021-02-18T21:41:39ZHow the Texas electricity system produced low-cost power but left residents out in the cold<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385101/original/file-20210218-24-wcvh37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=30%2C0%2C5057%2C3394&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Waiting in line in freezing rain to fill propane tanks in Houston, Texas, Feb. 17, 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXWinterWeatherTexas/74d88ea5f3bd4d77ad7ce77342b33357/photo">AP Photo/David J. Phillip</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Americans often take electricity for granted – until the lights go out. The recent <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather/texas-deep-freeze-leaves-millions-without-power-21-dead-idUSKBN2AG257">cold wave and storm in Texas</a> have placed considerable focus on the <a href="http://www.ercot.com/">Electric Reliability Council of Texas</a>, or ERCOT, the nonprofit corporation that manages the flow of electricity to more than 26 million Texans. Together, ERCOT and similar organizations <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=790">manage about 60% of the U.S. power supply</a>.</p>
<p>From my research on the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=yxN_35oAAAAJ&hl=en">structure of the U.S. electricity industry</a>, I know that rules set by entities like ERCOT have major effects on Americans’ energy choices. The current power crunch in Texas and other affected states highlights the delicate balancing act that’s involved in providing safe, reliable electricity service at fair, reasonable rates. It also shows how arcane features of energy markets can have big effects at critical moments.</p>
<h2>Let there be light</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/88630/empires-of-light-by-jill-jonnes/">electric age</a> began in 1882 when the Edison Illuminating Company sent power over wires to 59 customers in lower Manhattan from its Pearl Street Generating Station. Edison was America’s first investor-owned electric utility – a company that generated electricity, moved it over transmission lines and delivered it to individual customers. </p>
<p>The scope and scale of electric utilities grew rapidly from those humble beginnings, but this underlying, vertically integrated structure remained intact for more than 100 years. Each utility had a monopoly on serving customers in its area and reported to a <a href="https://www.naruc.org/">public utility commission</a>, which told the company what rates it could charge.</p>
<p>Since the utilities knew more about their costs and abilities than anyone else, the burden was on regulators to decide whether the utility was operating efficiently. <a href="https://www.raponline.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/rap-lazar-electricityregulationintheus-guide-2011-03.pdf">Regulators also determined</a> whether the costs that utilities proposed to pass on to customers – such as building new generating plants – were just and reasonable.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Thomas Edison created the model for the traditional electric utility at his Pearl Street Station in New York City.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The lines get tangled</h2>
<p>Things grew complicated in 1996 when the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission issued <a href="https://www.ferc.gov/industries-data/electric/industry-activities/open-access-transmission-tariff-oatt-reform/history-oatt-reform/order-no-888">Order 888</a>, allowing states to restructure their electric power industries to promote more competition. Through the actions, or inaction, of individual state legislatures, the U.S. electricity market fractured. </p>
<p>Some states, primarily in the Southeast and the West, maintained the vertically integrated structure. The rest of the nation moved to a market structure in which generators compete to sell their electricity. </p>
<p>Regions created new independent organizations – known as independent system operators or regional transmission organizations – to regulate the flow of power on the grid. In these regions, generators compete to sell their electricity, and organizations called <a href="https://www.potomaceconomics.com/markets-monitored/ercot/">market monitors</a> make sure that generators follow the rules. This approach created power markets that prioritize generating electricity at the lowest possible price.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/384836/original/file-20210217-17-s7w4b3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of U.S. regional power markets." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/384836/original/file-20210217-17-s7w4b3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/384836/original/file-20210217-17-s7w4b3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384836/original/file-20210217-17-s7w4b3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384836/original/file-20210217-17-s7w4b3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384836/original/file-20210217-17-s7w4b3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384836/original/file-20210217-17-s7w4b3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384836/original/file-20210217-17-s7w4b3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In the Southeast, Southwest and Northwest U.S., traditional utilities generate electricity and deliver it to customers. Other regions, including Texas, have moved to competitive power markets run by Independent System Operators, or ISOs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ferc.gov/industries-data/market-assessments/electric-power-markets">FERC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>An imperative to keep prices low</h2>
<p>What do these changes mean for electricity customers in regions with competitive power markets? The companies that deliver power over wires to homes and businesses still have to get their prices approved by regulators, but the system works differently for the businesses that generate that power. </p>
<p>Generators offer their electricity, typically at a particular price each hour, on exchanges run by market operators like ERCOT. Those operators figure out how much electricity is needed across the regions they serve and choose the lowest-cost bidders to supply it. </p>
<p>If a generating company is not selected, it loses the opportunity to sell its electricity during that hour. And selling power is how generators create revenue to pay for things like workers, power plants and fuel. This means that generators have an incentive to bid as low as possible and sell as much electricity as possible. </p>
<p>Generators in Texas are facing criticism now that they <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/02/16/ercot-texas-electric-grid-failure/">weren’t prepared to operate in extremely cold temperatures</a>. But consider the challenges facing two Texas generators that are identical in every way, except that one decides to invest in winterization. That company will have higher costs than its competitor and may be forced to submit higher-priced offers in the market, potentially losing out on opportunities to sell its electricity. </p>
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<p>In the long run, the company that winterizes may have a more difficult time staying in business. It would be better prepared for the conditions affecting Texas now, but it would operate at a competitive disadvantage under more normal conditions.</p>
<p>An international nonprofit regulator called the <a href="https://www.nerc.com/Pages/default.aspx">North American Reliability Corporation</a> conducts semi-annual reliability assessments for each North American region, but those assessments are only as good as the assumptions they’re based on. If the assessment doesn’t consider extreme events, then the regulator can’t determine whether a power system is ready for them. </p>
<p>After an earlier cold wave in 2011 that led to power shortages, federal regulators identified options for winterizing the Texas power system – but ERCOT <a href="https://www.kxan.com/investigations/winter-preparedness-not-mandatory-at-texas-power-plants-and-generators-despite-2011-report/">did not require energy companies to carry them out</a>. Other regions might value resilience differently. For example, ISO-New England launched a program in 2018 that compensates generators for <a href="https://vimeo.com/257500308">providing extra capacity when the system is strained</a>.</p>
<p>The power of a competitive generation market is that each generator gets to decide for itself what makes it sustainable in the long run. That’s also a weakness of the market.</p>
<h2>What’s next for Texas?</h2>
<p>Once power is restored across Texas, state and federal policymakers will have to address several tough questions in order to make failures like this less likely.</p>
<p>First, does preparing the power system for severe storms represent value for electricity customers? What types of events should people be protected from? Who determines the scenarios that go into reliability assessments? Since consumers will pay the costs, they should also benefit. </p>
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<p>Second, how should people pay for this resiliency? Costs could be assessed based on the number of kilowatt hours each household uses or charged as a flat fee per customer – an approach that could benefit heavy electricity users. Or they could be covered through new taxes. How will decision-makers respond a year from now, when the crisis has passed and people ask, “The weather is great and the system is doing fine, so why am I paying more for my electricity?”</p>
<p>Third, how does that money that consumers pay to improve the system translate into projects? Should it go directly to generators or into a fund that generating companies can draw on? Who would administer the fund? Who is ultimately responsible for implementing changes to the system and accountable if things don’t improve?</p>
<p>Finally, how will these changes affect the market’s central goal: inducing energy companies to provide power at the lowest cost?</p>
<p>Ultimately, <a href="https://theconversation.com/delinquent-electric-bills-from-the-pandemic-are-coming-due-who-will-pay-them-147970">the public pays the costs of electricity service</a>, either through higher rates or service interruptions during events like this week’s Texas freeze. In my view, utilities, regulators, government officials and people like me who study them have a responsibility to ensure that people get the best value for their money.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155527/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Theodore Kury is the Director of Energy Studies at the University of Florida’s Public Utility Research Center, which is sponsored in part by the Florida electric and gas utilities and the Florida Public Service Commission, none of which has editorial control of any of the content the Center produces.</span></em></p>The Texas electric power market is designed to give energy companies incentive to sell electricity at the lowest possible cost. That focus helps explain why it collapsed during a historic cold wave.Theodore J. Kury, Director of Energy Studies, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1553452021-02-16T19:30:00Z2021-02-16T19:30:00ZPower outages across the Plains: 4 questions answered about weather-driven blackouts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/384377/original/file-20210216-15-h1zidn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C10%2C6756%2C4490&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Icicles on a bush in downtown Houston, Feb. 15, 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/icicles-form-on-a-bush-in-downtown-houston-texas-on-news-photo/1231190301?adppopup=true">Mark Felix/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: Amid record cold temperatures and skyrocketing energy demand, utilities across the central U.S. have ordered <a href="https://www.insider.com/texas-snow-storm-blackouts-states-power-grid-electricity-energy-emergency-2021-2">rolling blackouts to ration electricity</a>, leaving <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-winter-storm-power-outages-deaths/">millions of people without power</a>. Energy expert <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=RIxZX_cAAAAJ&hl=en">Michael E. Webber</a> explains why weather extremes can require such extreme steps.</em></p>
<h2>1. The Plains states have a lot of wild weather. Why is this cold wave such a problem for utilities?</h2>
<p>The central U.S. has freezes, heat waves, windstorms, droughts and floods. All of these events stress the electric grid, pipeline networks, roads, rail and waterways. Right now in my state of Texas, <a href="http://www.ercot.com/">ERCOT</a>, a nonprofit corporation that manages the power grid for most of the state, is imposing rolling blackouts because <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuarhodes/2021/02/14/valentines-day-giving-the-texas-electric-grid-the-cold-shoulder/?sh=6413ec82740c">demand for electric heating is very high</a>. So is the <a href="https://spp.org/markets-operations/current-grid-conditions/">Southwest Power Pool</a>, which serves customers in 14 states from North Dakota to Oklahoma.</p>
<p>About 60% of homes in Texas have electric heat, and most of the rest use natural gas or propane. Normally our peak electric demand is on summer afternoons for air conditioning. But in this sustained cold, electric demand is spiking to keep homes comfortable and pipes from freezing. This storm is <a href="https://apnews.com/article/us-news-houston-dallas-storms-power-outages-b02d3b73e24166653577a072c9973a2f">more extreme</a> than the most severe winter conditions that ERCOT typically plans for. </p>
<p>At this time of year, power plants that run on coal or natural gas often shut down for planned maintenance ahead of the summer cooling season. That means we have less capacity available than usual right now. </p>
<p>To meet the difference between high demand and low capacity, utilities are cycling power on and off to different neighborhoods or regions of Texas in a methodical way to keep things in balance. If they didn’t do this, there would be a risk of a much wider-scale blackout, which would be catastrophic and life-threatening.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TrilWDVdTmo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Utilities impose rolling blackouts as a last resort to ration power when demand exceeds supply.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. How do utilities plan for this kind of extreme weather?</h2>
<p>Utilities everywhere follow the weather very closely. Temperature changes affect the need for heating and cooling, which drives demand for electricity and natural gas. Meteorological conditions affect the availability of wind and solar power. </p>
<p>Thermal power plants – which burn coal, natural gas or biomass – also need a lot of water for cooling to run efficiently, as do nuclear power plants. If climate change warms rivers or reduces their water levels, it could force those power plants <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.8b05718">to turn off or reduce their output</a>. </p>
<p>Weather forecasting has improved as satellites become more abundant and computer models become more sophisticated. Utilities can take steps in advance of a major storm, such as asking customers to preheat their homes. For ratepayers who will do this, the utility may adjust their thermostats to reduce power flow when demand is high. </p>
<p>Power providers can also ask large industrial customers to temporarily shut down factories to reduce electricity demand. And they can give hourly or minute-by-minute updates to customers about rolling blackouts and provide real-time maps of power outages. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1361493394070118402"}"></div></p>
<p>Utilities work year-round to harden the grid against extreme weather. They may build berms to protect power plants against floods, fill reservoirs in preparation for droughts, replace equipment that can get overheated in the summer or weatherize power plants for cold conditions. </p>
<p>Almost exactly a decade ago, in February 2011, Texas suffered a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ercot-rollingblackouts/texas-weathers-rolling-blackouts-as-mercury-drops-idUSTRE71213420110203">significant series of rolling blackouts</a> when cold weather forced dozens of coal and natural gas power plants offline. This cold snap is testing the upgrades utilities made after that event. </p>
<h2>3. Does having a diverse fuel mix protect against energy crunches?</h2>
<p>Texas is blessed with multiple energy sources. Much of it is produced locally, including natural gas, wind and solar power. Over the past 15 years, the state has diversified its fuel mix: Coal use has dropped, wind and solar have grown, and nuclear and natural gas use have held steady. </p>
<p>Each of these options has pros and cons. Wind and solar do not require water cooling, so they work fine during droughts and floods. But they vary based on wind patterns, cloud cover and time of day. </p>
<p>Nuclear power is reliable, but sometimes nuclear plants have to reduce their output during heat waves or droughts if their cooling water is too hot or scarce. </p>
<p>Natural gas is a high performer, but in the 2011 Texas cold snap, gas plants struggled to keep up with demand because many homes and businesses were using the fuel for heat. That <a href="https://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/Pages/February-2011-Southwest-Cold-Weather-Event.aspx">reduced the pressure in gas pipelines</a>, which made it hard to physically move gas to turbines that needed the fuel to generate electricity. </p>
<p>Much of the coal burned in Texas power plants comes from Wyoming over a sprawling rail network that can be disrupted if a bridge or section of track is out of commission for repairs. Utilities store 30 days or more of coal in piles near their power plants, but those piles can freeze or be flooded, as occurred when <a href="https://www.weather.gov/hgx/hurricaneharvey">Hurricane Harvey swamped Houston in 2017</a>. </p>
<p>Because all of these options fail in different ways, a diverse mix is the best basis for a robust system. Today Texas has three times as much wind power-generating capacity as it did in 2011, which may help stave off the worst risks of a statewide blackout. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1349153819066826755"}"></div></p>
<p>This extra wind will be especially important because about 30% of ERCOT’s generating capacity is offline right now, <a href="https://twitter.com/JesseJenkins/status/1361348544154664961?s=20">reportedly due to natural gas shortages</a>. Some West Texas wind turbines have also shut down due to icing, but turbines in other parts of the state are <a href="https://www.statesman.com/story/news/2021/02/14/historic-winter-storm-freezes-texas-wind-turbines-hampering-electric-generation/4483230001/">partially offsetting those losses</a>. ERCOT will investigate all power losses after this storm passes and use what it learns to make new improvements to its system.</p>
<h2>4. California has had rolling blackouts recently, too. Is this a national risk?</h2>
<p>California is a big state with power sources in many locations, so it relies on a sprawling network of wires and poles to move electrons from one place to another. Those power lines can sag when it’s hot out and fail when high winds blow trees down onto the wires. </p>
<p>Aging transmission and distribution networks can also <a href="https://apnews.com/article/3d35a822b32a447b665281d0bb2e8fd2">spark wildfires</a>, which is a growing risk as the effects of climate change <a href="https://theconversation.com/california-wildfires-signal-the-arrival-of-a-planetary-fire-age-125972">worsen drought conditions in the West</a>. To manage those risks, California grid operators will <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-blackouts-to-darken-california-11599535514">preemptively turn off the power</a> to prevent wildfires. They also did this in August 2020 to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/08/15/902781690/california-issues-first-rolling-blackouts-since-2001-as-heat-wave-bakes-western-#">ration power during a heat wave</a>. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p><a href="https://medialibrary.climatecentral.org/resources/power-outages">Weather-related power outages are increasing across the U.S.</a> as climate change produces more extreme storms and temperature swings. States that design their buildings and infrastructure for hot weather may need to plan for more big chills, and cold-weather states can expect more heat waves. As conditions in Texas show, there’s no time to waste in getting more weather-ready.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155345/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael E. Webber is Chief Science and Technology Officer at ENGIE, a diversified utility that operates in 70 countries, including the U.S. He is Co-Director of the Clean Energy Incubator at the Austin Technology Incubator, and is one of the originators of Pecan Street Incorporated, a public-private partnership in Austin, Texas, running the nation’s largest smart grid experiment.</span></em></p>Heat waves, droughts and deep freezes can all strain the electric grid, leading utilities to impose rolling blackouts. Climate change is likely to make these events more common.Michael E. Webber, Josey Centennial Professor of Energy Resources, The University of Texas at AustinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1490382020-11-16T13:22:30Z2020-11-16T13:22:30ZRegulators can help clear the way for entrepreneurial energy companies to innovate<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367840/original/file-20201105-19-140tpoc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=22%2C40%2C1475%2C1082&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Distributed power generation, such as this fuel cell installation, requires new ventures to work with energy regulators.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://mms.businesswire.com/media/20200902005860/en/818015/5/Paju.jpg?download=1">Business Wire</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take about interesting academic work.</em></p>
<h2>The big idea</h2>
<p>How regulatory policies are implemented can make a huge difference for entrepreneurs in clean technology. In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0001839220911022">study</a>, we found that giving state-level regulators more discretion in approving hydropower facilities in the United States led to faster adoption of this clean energy source. </p>
<p>We reviewed regulatory approvals of entrepreneurial hydroelectric power facilities from 1978 to 2014 and found that, on average, when regulators had a relatively high level of discretion, entrepreneurs received a license 22.5% sooner. We calculated hydropower ventures that use innovative <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/water/types-hydropower-plants">run-of-the-river</a>, <a href="https://www.hydro.org/policy/technology/pumped-storage/">pumped storage</a> and <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/water/marine-hydrokinetic-program">marine technologies</a> can generate up to US$7,740 per day in renewable energy – $2.8 million annually – from faster licensing. </p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>Government regulation can pose a significant barrier for <a href="https://doi.org/10.5465/256737">new ventures</a> seeking to enter regulated markets, such as electric power, because they typically lack the resources and experience to meet requirements posed by regulations. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367950/original/file-20201106-19-ezk30v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chief Joseph Dam" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367950/original/file-20201106-19-ezk30v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367950/original/file-20201106-19-ezk30v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367950/original/file-20201106-19-ezk30v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367950/original/file-20201106-19-ezk30v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367950/original/file-20201106-19-ezk30v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367950/original/file-20201106-19-ezk30v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367950/original/file-20201106-19-ezk30v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A run-of-the-river hydroelectric plant, such as the Chief Joseph Dam in Washington, is a type of generator that uses little or no stored water. This type of plant is considered to have fewer environmental impacts than conventional hydro plants with large dams or reservoirs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Run-of-the-river_hydroelectricity#/media/File:Chief_Joseph_Dam.jpg">U.S. Army Corps of Engineers</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For large established companies, by contrast, operating in regulated markets can be beneficial because they have the resources and experience to overcome regulatory hurdles, while smaller competitors don’t. Large incumbents can also set the rules of the game in their favor by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2241-z">influencing lawmakers</a> to create cumbersome legislation that makes it harder for new ventures to establish themselves. </p>
<p>Our findings suggest entrepreneurs using novel clean technologies should seek to enter jurisdictions where regulators have greater discretion from legislators who craft laws. </p>
<p>There are also important implications for policymakers. Instead of focusing on policy prescriptions, they should examine how those policies are actually implemented by regulators. The degree of regulatory discretion may be one of the reasons policies with good intentions <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-016-9712-2">fail to make a measurable difference</a>. </p>
<h2>How we did our work</h2>
<p>We sought to discover the conditions under which clean-tech entrepreneurs were able to enter regulated markets in the absence of a formal policy change. To do this, we examined the role of the regulatory agencies that are responsible for implementing the laws created by legislators. </p>
<p>We looked specifically at regulatory discretion – the flexibility that agencies have to interpret and implement public policy – and its role in influencing market entry of new ventures. To measure discretion, we looked at the number of laws, known as administrative procedures acts, that limit the freedom of regulatory agencies to interpret and implement policies. </p>
<p>We found that when regulators have low discretion, their decision-making is directed by legislators, who are often lobbied by existing companies in efforts to prevent new ventures from entering their markets. However, when regulators have high discretion, they are more insulated from pressure from legislators and can make decisions based on their mission to serve the public interest. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="An offshore wind turbine in Portugal." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367846/original/file-20201105-21-vt6iqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367846/original/file-20201105-21-vt6iqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367846/original/file-20201105-21-vt6iqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367846/original/file-20201105-21-vt6iqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367846/original/file-20201105-21-vt6iqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367846/original/file-20201105-21-vt6iqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367846/original/file-20201105-21-vt6iqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Entering an emerging renewable energy market, such as offshore wind, requires substantial capital as well as understanding of many regulations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/departmentofenergy/29566439002/in/photolist-M3FJeG-DRGvGC-G1TiWY-nQxYtF-pn3Kp3-DA1HFW-fpLfpc-HLzrte-schFp4-fjNrEB-fvdrZd-cSRFbq-fvfrmL-27mursY-cSRF5j-cSRF2S-DTSWpF-fjMXGR-nNDvCH-26a3oMq-nQxYsP-Xn4fgt-JjsSuZ-dgYdSU-wXN8Wk-nLS3F4-fvdrTs-pVi3kT-fgcRRh-rnHRut-e3hHDq-rA5rwG-rAb5Pk-dpZT2C-wotQ5q-e3c2Qr-2e43z23-suSDB2-g9hWVe-ktcFp8-n1n3Nv-2e8H8TK-fNTa6d-sgBYNw-uetGYN-eQ3BLT-fApLyw-Lgic3P-rcr8Je-M6jUFr">U.S. Department of Energy</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s next</h2>
<p>We are delving deeper into understanding how the implementation of policies can influence the development of new renewable energy technologies in the U.S. and globally. One of our projects explores the role of business stakeholders, such as environmental activists, in influencing regulators’ decision-making. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3725852">research</a> suggests that activists may have a greater impact on entrepreneurial energy innovation when regulators have more discretion. Because discretion places more responsibility for regulatory decision-making on the regulatory agency than on legislators, it allows activists to influence regulators by challenging their legitimacy and reputation. </p>
<p>Future research should explore how variation in policy implementation affects the development of other emergent renewable energy technologies, such as wave and tidal power, biomass, biogas, hydrogen and geothermal. In regulated markets, although entrepreneurs may be able to develop feasible technologies, commercializing them is dependent upon regulators who can be influenced by established companies, legislators and stakeholder activists. </p>
<p>[<em>Understand new developments in science, health and technology, each week.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-understand">Subscribe to The Conversation’s science newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149038/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jake Grandy receives funding from Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shon Hiatt receives funding from Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation.</span></em></p>A study points to one way to speed up adoption of innovations in clean energy technology – more flexibility among state regulators.Jake Grandy, Assistant Professor Entrepreneurship and Venture Innovation, University of ArkansasShon Hiatt, Associate Professor of Management and Organization, University of Southern CaliforniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1479702020-11-06T13:31:30Z2020-11-06T13:31:30ZDelinquent electric bills from the pandemic are coming due – who will pay them?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367550/original/file-20201104-17-cweh1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=22%2C4%2C2978%2C2046&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Who picks up the bill when customers can't pay?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/classic-analog-electrical-power-meter-metering-royalty-free-image/824589716?adppopup=true">iStock / Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The shutdowns and restrictions that governments have imposed to limit the spread of COVID-19 have made it hard for many households to afford basic needs. Thousands of Americans are <a href="https://theconversation.com/energy-is-a-basic-need-and-many-americans-are-struggling-to-afford-it-in-the-covid-19-recession-140416">struggling to pay monthly utility bills</a>.</p>
<p>Utilities and policymakers recognized that services like water and electricity <a href="https://theconversation.com/energy-is-a-basic-need-and-many-americans-are-struggling-to-afford-it-in-the-covid-19-recession-140416">are essential to</a> people’s health, safety and comfort. Since mid-March they have taken steps to keep those services coming. </p>
<p>The most popular approach has been for them to impose moratoria on late fees and disconnections for nonpayment of bills. Every state in the U.S. has enacted <a href="https://www.naruc.org/compilation-of-covid-19-news-resources/map-of-disconnection-moratoria/">some version of this policy</a>, from <a href="https://files.nc.gov/governor/documents/files/EO124-Utilities-Evictions-Financial-Services.pdf">formal declarations</a> to voluntary programs offered by utilities.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367555/original/file-20201104-21-1yi8jvs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing status of moratoria by state" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367555/original/file-20201104-21-1yi8jvs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367555/original/file-20201104-21-1yi8jvs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367555/original/file-20201104-21-1yi8jvs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367555/original/file-20201104-21-1yi8jvs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367555/original/file-20201104-21-1yi8jvs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367555/original/file-20201104-21-1yi8jvs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367555/original/file-20201104-21-1yi8jvs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Map of disconnection moratoria as of Nov. 3, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.naruc.org/compilation-of-covid-19-news-resources/map-of-disconnection-moratoria/">NARUC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But now these moratoria are <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/27/millions-of-households-will-lose-their-utility-shutoff-protections-in-the-next-month.html">starting to expire</a>. Consumers are worried about whether their utility service will be <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/10/01/power-water-gas-bills/">accessible or affordable</a>.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=yxN_35oAAAAJ">director of energy studies</a> at the University of Florida’s <a href="https://warrington.ufl.edu/public-utility-research-center/">Public Utility Research Center</a>, I’ve <a href="https://warrington.ufl.edu/public-utility-research-center/2020/08/11/what-happens-when-power-shut-off-moratoriums-expire/">studied the impacts of COVID-19 policy</a> on electric utilities, customers and regulators. These unpaid bills could affect many Americans’ lives, and in my view, there is no straightforward way to handle them.</p>
<h2>A price tag in the billions</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://neada.org/">National Energy Assistance Directors Association</a>, which primarily helps states manage utility programs that assist low-income customers, recently estimated total unpaid electric bills as of July 31, 2020 at <a href="https://neada.org/covidarrearagespr/">almost US$10 billion</a>. This amount could grow to nearly $24 billion by the end of the year – equivalent to about <a href="https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/">15% of what U.S. households spent on electricity</a> in 2019. </p>
<p>And the challenge won’t end there. Moratoria in nine states including California, New York and Wisconsin, covering over <a href="https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/">23%</a> of U.S. residential electricity customers, are expected to extend into 2021.</p>
<p>Although this is a nationwide problem, there has been no concerted national effort to gather data on COVID-19-related utility debt. So far the most precise numbers are coming from formal regulatory filings in states like <a href="https://starw1.ncuc.net/NCUC/page/docket-docs/PSC/DocketDetails.aspx?DocketId=66e14449-b407-4ac3-93eb-a417521e1269">North Carolina</a> and <a href="https://iurc.portal.in.gov/docketed-case-details/?id=197c5aad-9a93-ea11-a811-001dd8018921">Indiana</a>, and from informational <a href="http://www.psc.state.fl.us/UtilityRegulation/CovidWorkshop">workshop presentations</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/L90l1fbYPwU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Residents of Wake County, N.C. struggle to pay their bills due to pandemic shutdowns in August 2020.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So how will these debts be settled? There are four basic strategies, all of which have drawbacks.</p>
<h2>Charge the delinquent customers</h2>
<p>The first and probably most straightforward option is to directly assign debts to the customers that incurred them, usually through an additional charge on their future utility bills over the next 12 to 24 months. This treatment is most consistent with the principle of cost causality in utility regulation, which holds that the customer who caused the cost to be incurred is responsible for paying it.</p>
<p>Many <a href="https://gru.com/coronavirus.aspx">utilities</a> and the <a href="https://www.usa.gov/help-with-bills">federal government</a> have established programs to help people pay their delinquent charges and minimize the impact of these costs. But directly assigning delinquent charges to customers won’t work for those who are still unable to pay their bills, or who leave the system because their service has been disconnected. This means that any costs that cannot be directly assigned must ultimately be paid by someone else.</p>
<h2>Charge all ratepayers</h2>
<p>One possibility for “someone else” is the utility’s other customers – but only if the regulators who oversee that utility allow it.</p>
<p>Utilities work differently from conventional businesses that can set prices at whatever they think customers are willing to pay. Because utilities are delivering services that are deemed essential, they report to <a href="https://www.naruc.org/">state utility commissions</a> or local regulators. These authorities decide which costs of providing electricity or water are ultimately included in the rates that customers pay. </p>
<p>For example, when a utility builds a new substation or power plant, regulators typically allow it to recover the value of that investment from its customers over time. The total bundle of assets that a utility can recover from customers is called its <a href="http://regulationbodyofknowledge.org/glossary/r/rate-base/">rate base</a>. </p>
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<p>To add a new asset to its rate base, utility officials must appear before regulators and ask for the investment to be included in the rates that the company charges. <a href="https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/written_informal_comments/">The public can participate in these proceedings</a>. After hearing from interested parties, regulators decide whether to include the value of the asset in rates.</p>
<p>If they approve it, then this asset is <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/amortization.asp">amortized</a> over time, like a mortgage. The customers effectively make regular payments and pay interest – called the cost of capital – on the unrecovered balance.</p>
<p>So if an asset for this unpaid debt is created, it would be treated like any other investment and be recovered over time from all of the utility’s customers.</p>
<h2>Turn bills into bonds</h2>
<p><a href="https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201920200AB913">Some states</a> have talked about <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/07/securitization.asp">securitizing</a> these unpaid charges. This means taking a set of assets that can’t easily be converted into cash and turning them into a financial product. </p>
<p>One way this might work would be for a state government to issue bonds with a total value equal to the utility’s unpaid bills. The state would pay the proceeds from selling these bonds to utilities and repay the debt over time. This approach spreads the cost of unpaid electric bills over all of the state’s taxpayers, since the state would use money from tax collections to pay people who buy the bonds.</p>
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<h2>Make utilities take the hit</h2>
<p><a href="https://renewmo.org/press-release/for-immediate-release-evergy-must-act-to-avoid-covid-catastrophe-for-customers/">Some advocates</a> argue that utilities should foot the bill for customers who can’t pay during the pandemic. But neither governments nor corporations have money of their own: Governments get it from taxpayers, and utilities get it from their customers and investors. </p>
<p>On the surface, requiring utility investors to absorb the cost of unpaid bills might seem like a clever way to protect customers. But the reality is far more complicated. First, as <a href="https://starw1.ncuc.net/NCUC/ViewFile.aspx?Id=791d5d71-b34d-4ce1-9b15-69ac55eed166">data from North Carolina show</a>, a significant number of people in arrears are customers of <a href="https://www.publicpower.org/">municipal utilities</a>, which are owned by cities and states, or <a href="https://www.electric.coop/">cooperative utilities</a> that are owned by their customers. These types of utilities don’t have outside equity investors whom they can ask for money to cover unpaid bills.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Other utilities are owned by investors, who provide the companies with capital in exchange for a risk-adjusted return on that investment. If the risk of the investment goes up, so does their expectation of their return. </p>
<p>If utility investors are asked to take on risks beyond what they perceive as fair, they may either require a greater return for their capital in the future – which would require the utility to raise its rates – or stop providing capital altogether and invest it somewhere else. This could affect the reliability and accessibility of utility service in the future. So while consumers might not pay today, they would likely pay in some way in the future.</p>
<p>Different states may choose to address this problem in different ways. What’s certain, though, is that the people – utility customers, taxpayers or investors – will end up paying for it. All that regulators and policymakers will decide is how and when.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147970/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Theodore Kury is the Director of Energy Studies at the University of Florida’s Public Utility Research Center, which is sponsored in part by the Florida electric and gas utilities and the Florida Public Service Commission. The Center maintains sole editorial control of this and any other work.</span></em></p>Many Americans have been unable to pay their electric bills during the COVID-19 pandemic, racking up billions of dollars in delinquent bills. Where will the money come from?Theodore J. Kury, Director of Energy Studies, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1404162020-07-30T12:19:37Z2020-07-30T12:19:37ZEnergy is a basic need, and many Americans are struggling to afford it in the COVID-19 recession<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348467/original/file-20200720-37-sjhky8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5375%2C3511&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The COVID-19 recession has made it harder for many Americans to pay their energy bills. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/low-voltage-power-lines-connecting-residential-royalty-free-image/644561170?adppopup=true">Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Several months into the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, lower-income families are struggling to pay their energy bills. That’s a big concern during extreme events like <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/stay-hydrated-it-s-going-to-be-long-hot-july-for-much-of-us">summer heat waves</a>, which can be deadly – especially for <a href="https://theconversation.com/heat-stroke-a-doctor-offers-tips-to-stay-safe-as-temperatures-soar-120626">elderly people</a>, young children, <a href="https://theconversation.com/heat-waves-threaten-city-dwellers-especially-minorities-and-the-poor-81738">people of color and the poor</a>.</p>
<p>We ran a <a href="https://oneill.indiana.edu/doc/research/energy-insecurity-survey-june-2020.pdf?_ga=2.256794316.617866999.1592234109-1468293896.1585660132">nationally representative survey</a> in May 2020 of U.S. low-income households to measure energy insecurity. We found that 13% of respondents had been unable to pay an energy bill during the prior month, 9% had received an electricity utility shutoff notice and 4% had had their electric utility service disconnected. </p>
<p>More than half of the states <a href="https://www.naruc.org/compilation-of-covid-19-news-resources/state-response-tracker/">temporarily barred utilities from disconnecting customers</a> who were unable to pay their bills due to financial hardship in the early months of the economic downturn. Still, extrapolating our findings to the national level suggests that approximately 800,000 low-income households may have recently had their electricity disconnected. </p>
<p>And the problem could get worse as the economy continues to struggle. As scholars who study <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=62WhEF0AAAAJ&hl=en">energy policy</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=SnSvL-sAAAAJ&hl=en">the environment</a> and <a href="https://energyjustice.indiana.edu/">energy justice</a>, we believe energy assistance should be a central part of ongoing state and federal relief efforts.</p>
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<h2>Energy insecurity affects well being</h2>
<p>Energy insecurity is already a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0582-0">widespread problem</a> in the U.S. It disproportionately affects those at or below the poverty line, Black and Hispanic households, families with young children, people with disabilities and those who use electronic medical devices. Our survey is the first to try to quantify it among low-income households.</p>
<p>When families cannot afford to keep their lights on, or heat or cool their homes to comfortable temperatures, they <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2016.08.029">suffer physically and mentally</a>. Risks include exposure to dampness, mold and humidity; dangerous practices, such as using stoves for space heating; and feelings of chronic stress, anxiety and depression.</p>
<p>Before 2020, energy insecurity was expected to worsen due to rising energy costs, coupled with more frequent <a href="https://www.c2es.org/content/heat-waves-and-climate-change/">heat waves</a> and cold spells due to climate change. Now the COVID-19 pandemic presents an additional, <a href="https://www.aceee.org/blog-post/2020/05/perfect-storm-covid-19-cuts-incomes-and-hikes-home-energy-bills">unprecedented challenge</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/04/15/the-unemployment-impacts-of-covid-19-lessons-from-the-great-recession/">Unemployment</a> remains high. Power shutoff moratoriums in many states are <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/07/28/892995058/tidal-wave-of-power-shut-offs-looms-as-nation-grapples-with-heat">reaching their expiration dates</a>. Many households will struggle to cover monthly expenses such as energy bills, along with necessities such as rent and groceries. </p>
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<h2>Job losses, energy challenges</h2>
<p>We surveyed a nationally representative sample of households at or below 200% of the federal poverty line, which is about US$51,500 for a family of four. <a href="https://today.yougov.com/about/">YouGov</a>, a private polling and market research firm, conducted the survey online from April 30, 2020 through May 25, 2020 for our Indiana University research team.</p>
<p>The survey was taken by 2,381 respondents. It included questions about energy expenses, household energy behavior and activities since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<p>About a quarter of survey respondents had lost jobs, had their hours reduced or been placed on furlough without pay since the start of the pandemic. Of those with a change in employment status, approximately 15% lost their health insurance, and an additional 10% experienced a reduction in benefits. Before the pandemic, 22% had already lacked health insurance.</p>
<p>[<em>You need to understand the coronavirus pandemic, and we can help.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=coronavirus-help">Read The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Households facing such hardships must choose between covering energy costs and other expenses. Approximately 22% of respondents reported that in the previous month they had reduced or put off expenses for basic needs like medicine or food in order to pay their energy bills.</p>
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<h2>Energy insecurity has increased</h2>
<p>As people spend more time at home through the hot summer months, many are using more energy for essential services. They are running <a href="https://www.latimes.com/environment/newsletter/2020-05-28/climate-change-covid-19-heat-waves-boiling-point-newsletter-boiling-point">air conditioners</a>, refrigerators, cooking appliances and electronic and medical devices. And, as the school year begins, students attending school from home will need to power computers and other devices.</p>
<p>The combination of rising energy use and falling incomes is likely to increase low-income households’ energy burdens – the proportion of their incomes they spend on energy. We expect that this trend will move a whole new population of households into energy insecurity. Some may try to cope without important energy uses, such as air conditioning, fans and refrigeration.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0620-y">Federal and state governments can help</a>. For example, Congress could pass legislation imposing a universal moratorium on utility shutoffs. And state regulators could prevent utilities from charging late and reconnection fees while the pandemic persists and people remain unemployed. Following a moratorium, regulators could also consider debt forgiveness as households recover. </p>
<p>Governments and organizations – public, private and nonprofit – can also offer bill assistance to vulnerable households and financial assistance to small businesses. One way would be to expand the federal <a href="https://www.acf.hhs.gov/ocs/programs/liheap">Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program</a>, or LIHEAP, or other financial assistance programs, such as <a href="https://www.marketplace.org/2020/07/07/answers-to-your-questions-about-unemployment-benefits-and-covid-19/">unemployment benefits</a> and the <a href="https://www.sba.gov/funding-programs/loans/coronavirus-relief-options/paycheck-protection-program">Paycheck Protection Program</a>. The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, or CARES Act, provided <a href="https://www.acf.hhs.gov/ocs/resource/liheap-dcl-2020-10-cares-act-supplemental-funding-release-ffy20#:%7E:text=This%20act%20provided%20%24900%20million,grantees%20under%20the%20CARES%20Act.">$900 million in supplemental funding for LIHEAP</a>, but this only scratches the surface of what is needed.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Some cities and states are working with utilities to help customers struggling to pay their bills.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Governments should also consider increasing funding for the Department of Energy’s <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/wap/weatherization-assistance-program">Weatherization Assistance Program</a>. This program represents a longer-term solution that can help low-income households save money on energy bills by repairing and upgrading key components like furnaces and ducts, and ensuring that houses are well insulated, sealed and ventilated.</p>
<p>So far in the pandemic, federal and state governments have focused on Americans’ immediate material needs. But millions of households are currently struggling to cover their energy costs, and living without energy could be a matter of life or death. Governments have the ability to help prevent this kind of secondary disaster, and more generally to recognize that energy is a basic and essential human need. </p>
<p><em>Michelle Graff and Trevor Memmott, doctoral students at the O'Neill School at Indiana University, are primary contributors to this ongoing research effort and authors of publications associated with this work.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140416/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sanya Carley receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, Indiana University's Environmental Resilience Institute and the Office of the Vice President of Research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Konisky receives funding for this project from the National Science Foundation, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, Indiana University's Environmental Resilience Institute, and Indiana University's Office of the Vice President of Research. </span></em></p>Many Americans had trouble paying their energy bills before COVID-19, and the current recession is making the problem worse.Sanya Carley, Professor of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana UniversityDavid Konisky, Professor of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1387912020-07-06T12:11:45Z2020-07-06T12:11:45Z‘Renewable’ natural gas may sound green, but it’s not an antidote for climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344870/original/file-20200630-103645-k9wq9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5200%2C3456&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Methane bubbles form in a pit digester on a dairy farm as bacteria break down cow manure. The methane can be collected and used as an energy source.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/methane-bubbles-from-manure-pit-digester-on-dairy-farm-news-photo/687589526?adppopup=true">Edwin Remsburg/VW Pics via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Natural gas is a versatile fossil fuel that accounts for <a href="https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03#/?f=A&start=200001">about a third of U.S. energy use</a>. Although it produces fewer greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants than coal or oil, natural gas is a major contributor to climate change, an <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">urgent global problem</a>. Reducing emissions from the natural gas system is especially challenging because natural gas is used <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_dcu_nus_m.htm">roughly equally for electricity, heating, and industrial applications</a>. </p>
<p>There’s an emerging argument that maybe there could be a direct substitute for fossil natural gas in the form of renewable natural gas (RNG) – a renewable fuel designed to be nearly indistinguishable from fossil natural gas. RNG could be made from biomass or from captured carbon dioxide and electricity. </p>
<p>Based on what’s known about these systems, however, I believe climate benefits might not be as large as advocates claim. This matters because RNG isn’t widely used yet, and decisions about whether to invest in it are being made now, in places like <a href="https://www.cleanenergyfuels.com/blog/influx-of-california-rng-fuels-local-economy-protects-climate">California</a>, <a href="https://www.oregon.gov/energy/Get-Involved/Pages/RNG-Advisory-Committee.aspx">Oregon</a>, <a href="http://biomassmagazine.com/articles/15172/inslee-signs-bill-to-promote-rng-in-state-of-washington">Washington</a>, <a href="https://energynews.us/2019/12/03/midwest/michigan-utilities-see-role-for-renewable-natural-gas-but-cost-barrier-remains/">Michigan</a>, <a href="https://investor.southerncompany.com/information-for-investors/latest-news/latest-news-releases/press-release-details/2020/Southern-Company-Gas-grows-leadership-team-to-focus-on-climate-action-innovation-and-renewable-natural-gas-strategy/default.aspx">Georgia</a> and <a href="https://www.epa.gov/natural-gas-star-program/rng-interconnect-guideline-new-york">New York</a>.</p>
<p>As someone who studies <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=3RI02dcAAAAJ&hl=en">sustainability</a>, I research how decisions made now might influence the environment and society in the future. I’m particularly interested in how energy systems contribute to climate change. </p>
<p>Right now, energy is responsible for most of the pollution worldwide that <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/">causes climate change</a>. Since energy infrastructure, like power plants and pipelines, <a href="http://emilygrubert.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/eia_860_2017_map.html">lasts a long time</a>, it’s important to consider the climate change emissions that society <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1364-3">is committing to</a> with new investments in these systems. At the moment, renewable natural gas is more a proposal than reality, which makes this a great time to ask: What would investing in RNG mean for climate change? </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Marketing video from Southern California Gas Co. promoting renewable natural gas as a climate-friendly energy option.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What RNG is and why it matters</h2>
<p>Most equipment that uses energy can only use a single kind of fuel, but the fuel might come from different resources. For example, you can’t charge your computer with gasoline, but it can run on electricity generated from coal, natural gas or solar power. </p>
<p>Natural gas is almost pure methane, <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/natural-gas/">currently sourced</a> from raw, fossil natural gas produced from <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/natural-gas/where-our-natural-gas-comes-from.php">deposits deep underground</a>. But methane could come from renewable resources, too.</p>
<p>[<em>The Conversation’s science, health and technology editors pick their favorite stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-favorite">Weekly on Wednesdays</a>.]</p>
<p>Two main methane sources could be used to make RNG. First is <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-sinks">biogenic methane</a>, produced by bacteria that digest organic materials in manure, landfills and wastewater. Wastewater treatment plants, landfills and dairy farms have captured and used biogenic methane as an energy resource for <a href="http://emilygrubert.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/eia_860_2017_map.html">decades</a>, in a form usually called <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/biomass/landfill-gas-and-biogas.php">biogas</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343781/original/file-20200624-133013-vi71ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343781/original/file-20200624-133013-vi71ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343781/original/file-20200624-133013-vi71ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343781/original/file-20200624-133013-vi71ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343781/original/file-20200624-133013-vi71ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343781/original/file-20200624-133013-vi71ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343781/original/file-20200624-133013-vi71ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Methane captured from cow manure can be used to produce renewable natural gas, which energy companies are promoting as a replacement for fossil natural gas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Exchange-Cow-Manure-Renewables/be42da9d774e40b98ea4e1a332de3423/15/0">AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some biogenic methane is generated naturally when organic materials break down without oxygen. Burning it for energy can be beneficial for the climate if doing so prevents methane from escaping to the atmosphere. </p>
<p>In theory, there’s enough of this climate-friendly methane available to replace <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9335/meta">about 1% of the energy</a> that the current natural gas system provides. The largest share is found at landfills.</p>
<p>The other source for RNG doesn’t exist in practice yet, but could theoretically be a much larger resource than biogenic methane. Often called <a href="https://www.powermag.com/why-power-to-gas-may-flourish-in-a-renewables-heavy-world/">power-to-gas</a>, this methane would be intentionally manufactured from carbon dioxide and hydrogen using electricity. If all the inputs are climate-neutral – meaning, for example, that the electricity used to create the RNG is generated from resources without greenhouse gas emissions – then the combusted RNG would also be climate-neutral.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344892/original/file-20200630-103683-11bkmyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344892/original/file-20200630-103683-11bkmyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344892/original/file-20200630-103683-11bkmyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344892/original/file-20200630-103683-11bkmyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344892/original/file-20200630-103683-11bkmyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344892/original/file-20200630-103683-11bkmyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344892/original/file-20200630-103683-11bkmyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344892/original/file-20200630-103683-11bkmyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Digesters at the Deer Island water treatment plant on Boston Harbor break down sewage sludge, yielding methane gas that helps power the plant.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deer_Island_Waste_Water_Treatment_Plant#/media/File:Deerislandeggs.jpg">Frank Hebbert/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So far, RNG of either type isn’t widely available. Much of the current conversation focuses on whether and how to make it available. For example, <a href="https://www.sempra.com/socalgas-takes-next-step-toward-offering-renewable-natural-gas">SoCalGas in California</a>, <a href="https://energynews.us/2019/01/30/midwest/minnesota-utility-wants-to-offer-customers-renewable-natural-gas-option/">CenterPoint Energy in Minnesota and Vermont Gas Systems in Vermont</a> either offer or have proposed offering RNG to consumers, in the same way that many utilities allow customers to opt in to renewable electricity. </p>
<h2>Renewable isn’t always sustainable</h2>
<p>If RNG could be a renewable replacement for fossil natural gas, why not move ahead? Consumers have shown that they are <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/green-power.html">willing to buy renewable electricity</a>, so we might expect similar enthusiasm for RNG. </p>
<p>The key issue is that methane isn’t just a fuel – it’s also a <a href="https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/ghg_report/ghg_overview.php">potent greenhouse gas</a> that contributes to climate change. Any methane that is manufactured intentionally, whether from biogenic or other sources, will contribute to climate change if it enters the atmosphere. </p>
<p>And <a href="http://DOI.org/10.1126/science.aar7204">releases</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2019.07.029">will happen</a>, from newly built production systems and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-methane-emissions-matter-to-climate-change-5-questions-answered-122684">existing, leaky transportation and user infrastructure</a>. For example, the moment you smell gas before the pilot light on a stove lights the ring? That’s methane leakage, and it contributes to climate change.</p>
<p>To be clear, RNG is almost certainly better for the climate than fossil natural gas because byproducts of burning RNG won’t contribute to climate change. But doing somewhat better than existing systems is no longer enough to respond to the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2923">urgency</a> of climate change. The world’s <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/">primary international body on climate change</a> suggests we need to decarbonize by 2030 to mitigate the worst effects of climate change. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343794/original/file-20200624-132955-1k1d4pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343794/original/file-20200624-132955-1k1d4pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343794/original/file-20200624-132955-1k1d4pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343794/original/file-20200624-132955-1k1d4pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343794/original/file-20200624-132955-1k1d4pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343794/original/file-20200624-132955-1k1d4pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343794/original/file-20200624-132955-1k1d4pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343794/original/file-20200624-132955-1k1d4pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Renewable natural gas would compete with other energy sources, such as wind power, that do not emit greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Carbon-Pricing-New-York/9aa3909b7478409386ed2f2b56eb961a/86/0">AP Photo/Julie Jacobson</a></span>
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<h2>Scant climate benefits</h2>
<p><a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9335/meta">My recent research</a> suggests that for a system large enough to displace a lot of fossil natural gas, RNG is probably not as good for the climate as <a href="https://investor.southerncompany.com/information-for-investors/latest-news/latest-news-releases/press-release-details/2020/Southern-Company-Gas-grows-leadership-team-to-focus-on-climate-action-innovation-and-renewable-natural-gas-strategy/default.aspx">is publicly claimed</a>. Although RNG has lower climate impact than its fossil counterpart, likely high demand and methane leakage mean that it probably will contribute to climate change. In contrast, renewable sources such as wind and solar energy do not <a href="https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/carbon/">emit climate pollution directly</a>. </p>
<p>What’s more, creating a large RNG system would require building mostly new production infrastructure, since RNG comes from different sources than fossil natural gas. Such investments are both long-term commitments and opportunity costs. They would devote money, political will and infrastructure investments to RNG instead of alternatives that could achieve a zero greenhouse gas emission goal.</p>
<p>When climate change first <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1988/06/24/us/global-warming-has-begun-expert-tells-senate.html">broke into the political conversation</a> in the late 1980s, investing in long-lived systems with low but non-zero greenhouse gas emissions was still compatible with aggressive climate goals. Now, zero greenhouse gas emissions is the target, and my research suggests that large deployments of RNG likely won’t meet that goal.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138791/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emily Grubert does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Energy companies are marketing a new fuel: ‘renewable’ natural gas. But it’s not the same from a climate change perspective as wind or solar energy.Emily Grubert, Assistant Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.