tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/exit-polls-35999/articlesexit polls – The Conversation2021-11-04T20:35:04Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1711972021-11-04T20:35:04Z2021-11-04T20:35:04ZLessons from the Virginia governor’s race: Pay attention to voters’ concerns instead of making it all about national politics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430335/original/file-20211104-22514-hy0vww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=42%2C607%2C5589%2C3140&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Exit political stage, heading to the right.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/virginia-democratic-gubernatorial-candidate-former-virginia-news-photo/1236308344?adppopup=true">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>I teach political speech writing. My students know that earlier this year I served on a committee that wrote the University of Virginia’s <a href="https://news.virginia.edu/content/statement-committee-free-expression-and-free-inquiry">statement on free speech and free inquiry</a>, which stated that “All views, beliefs, and perspectives deserve to be articulated and heard free from interference.” </p>
<p>I’m also a conservative who recently co-taught a <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/voices/2020/12/28/liberal-conservative-teach-2020-election-emerge-friends-column/4027231001/">2020 elections class</a> with a liberal colleague – and we both managed to survive. In my class, the mainly liberal students know they can speak freely about what’s important to them. Being open about your political views is important – but so too is listening generously to those of others.</p>
<p>They’ve written speeches about climate change, defunding the police, voting reforms, the Texas abortion law, misinformation on social media, electric cars, education policy, oil pipelines, critical race theory, China’s oppression of the Uyghurs, a universal basic income, and even the need for more napping during the day. </p>
<p>Across the board, they want to hear all sides of an argument and decide for themselves. They don’t want to be told what to believe. They’re taking speech writing because they want to learn how to make a good case in the face of a hostile audience.</p>
<p>And what I heard in the runup to the Nov. 2 elections was that students are increasingly worried about the job market and the economy they’ll be walking into upon graduation; they are concerned about rising crime rates in Charlottesville, where they attend college; and they wonder if they’ll be able to freely express their opinions – left or right – here at the university.</p>
<p>So it was no surprise to me that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2021/exit-polls-virginia-governor/">exit polls of Virginia voters</a> this week showed that the economy and education were voters’ top concerns, just as they are for many of my 20-something students. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Former U.S. President Barack Obama fist-bumping Democratic gubernatorial candidate, former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former U.S. President Barack Obama campaigns with Democratic gubernatorial candidate amd former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe on Oct. 23, 2021, in Richmond, Virginia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-u-s-president-barack-obama-campaigns-with-democratic-news-photo/1348284212?adppopup=true">Win McNamee/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Old playbook, new circumstances</h2>
<p>No matter what subject my students are writing speeches on – from critical race theory to electric cars – they want to take on all sides of an argument.</p>
<p>Similarly, many voters wanted to hear both candidates’ views on “kitchen table” issues – such as expanding job opportunities, ensuring public safety, and reforming education – in the closing weeks before the election. But that wasn’t always what voters got. Instead, they were often presented not with the issues, but with heavyweight political endorsements.</p>
<p>Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe brought in one Democratic star after another: President Joe Biden, first lady Jill Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, former President Barack Obama, voting rights activist Stacey Abrams and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi all made appearances for the former governor.</p>
<p>On one hand, McAuliffe’s playbook has worked for others in the past. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/10/25/big-name-democrats-are-campaigning-virginias-race-governor-does-that-help-candidates/">Research</a> by <a href="https://web.s.ebscohost.com/abstract?direct=true&profile=ehost&scope=site&authtype=crawler&jrnl=15354738&AN=110210185&h=Txy82Hlx3DObnSSmpvmLKuXTT6TJDGZL2PSMHQh22AB0B3I2HfHD%2f6Lk49nBxa6rkj6tMNQKRNeYdVeeGbOS5w%3d%3d&crl=c&resultNs=AdminWebAuth&resultLocal=ErrCrlNotAuth&crlhashurl=login.aspx%3fdirect%3dtrue%26profile%3dehost%26scope%3dsite%26authtype%3dcrawler%26jrnl%3d15354738%26AN%3d110210185">Rob Mellen Jr. and Kathleen Searles</a> into presidential campaign appearances during midterm elections between 1986 and 2006 showed that visits by the campaigner-in-chief can boost turnout and campaign donations for candidates – but only if the president is popular.</p>
<p>The problem in Virginia was that according to an <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/579440-poll-more-democrats-in-new-poll-want-someone-other-than-biden-as-partys">NPR-PBS Newshour-Marist poll</a> that came out the day before the election, a plurality of Democrats no longer want Joe Biden at the top of the ticket in 2024. Add to that Biden’s collapsing approval ratings, which sank lower every week in October, according to <a href="https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-BIDEN/POLL/nmopagnqapa/index.html">Reuters</a>.</p>
<p>It seems McAuliffe didn’t realize the albatross effect Biden was having on his own candidacy. Or the <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/state_of_the_union/">disconnect</a> right now between voters and those stars campaigning with him.</p>
<p>In contrast to McAuliffe, Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin talked early and often about his “<a href="https://www.youngkinforgovernor.com/game-plan">day one game plan</a>,” which focused on specific actions he’d take on the economy, public safety and education – the quality-of-life issues voters wanted to hear about. He hit the airwaves with TV ads comparing his policies with McAuliffe’s record and made his best case.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Glenn Youngkin at a campaign rally with a sign next to him that says " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Winning candidate Glenn Youngkin made the concerns of parents a central part of his campaign.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-gubernatorial-candidate-glenn-youngkin-speaks-news-photo/1347542247?adppopup=true">Win McNamee/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Succession stymied</h2>
<p>McAuliffe also faced an issue unique to Virginia that dampened his chances of success. Virginia is the only state in the nation that legally bars governors from a second successive term. Virginia law changed in <a href="https://vpm.org/listen/articles/6165/two-term-virginia-governors-rare-but-not-unprecedented">1851</a>, after several governors – including Patrick Henry – had served two successive terms in office. So from 1851 onward, the state has had only one-term governors – with one exception, in 1974, when former Democratic governor Mills Godwin waited four years and came back as a Republican. </p>
<p>McAuliffe, who held the governor’s job from 2014 to 2018, was trying to be the second exception. There’s a reason <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/List_of_United_States_Senators_from_Virginia">former Virginia governors Chuck Robb, Mark Warner, George Allen and Tim Kaine</a> all went on to become U.S. senators from the commonwealth instead of returning later as second-term governors. Virginians like a fresh face in the governor’s office, and this election was no exception.</p>
<p>The last time Virginia had a Republican governor was 2009, and a decade of one-party control of the governor’s mansion has led to a rising sense of frustration among voters – including <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2021/exit-polls-virginia-governor/">suburban independents</a> who swung away from Democrats this week – concerned with the stagnation of Virginia’s economy, the perceived lack of support for police and changes to parts of the educational curriculum in Virginia’s K-12 schools. </p>
<p>Instead of making a strong case for addressing these issues, the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/30/politics/terry-mcauliffe-donald-trump-virginia-governor-race/index.html">McAuliffe campaign preferred to bring Trump into everything</a>. In fact, at one McAuliffe rally in late October, Joe Biden mentioned Donald Trump <a href="https://nypost.com/2021/10/26/biden-says-trump-24-times-in-virginia-stump-for-mcauliffe/">24 times</a> in a single speech. </p>
<p>That strategy didn’t, by and large, connect with the concerns of working-class voters – from truck drivers dealing with hikes in the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/virginia-general-assembly-approves-higher-gas-tax-speed-cameras-and-cellphone-ban/2020/03/08/cb688356-5fbf-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html">gas tax</a> to urban residents worried about the <a href="https://www.nbc12.com/2021/06/07/homicides-virginia-hit-highest-levels-two-decades/">20-year high</a> in the murder rate to parents upset about what’s been going on in Loudoun County schools, where <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2021/10/29/loudoun-county-school-board-assault-virginia-governor-race/6179600001/">USA Today</a> reports that school board meetings “have spiraled into violence, accusations of student sexual assault are dominating headlines, and some parents have sued the school board over the district’s equity initiatives.” </p>
<p>The turning point came when McAuliffe stunned a debate audience with his <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/now/mcauliffe-says-parents-shouldn-t-173500644.html">statement</a>, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what to teach,” not realizing that there are likely far more voters who consider themselves parents first – and members of a political party second. When he failed to disavow a Department of Justice <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-addresses-violent-threats-against-school-officials-and-teachers">memo</a> labeling parents at school board meetings as “criminals,” there was no going back. His silence spoke volumes to everyone watching.</p>
<p>These days, it takes guts to speak up for what you believe in.</p>
<p>My sense is that there’s a growing number of Americans willing to stand up and courageously challenge the age in which we live. From what I’m seeing and hearing in just one college classroom, I have no doubt more brave young people – on both sides of the aisle – will make their case for positive change in the years to come.</p>
<p>Isn’t that what elections are all about?</p>
<p>[<em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-important">Get The Conversation’s most important politics headlines, in our Politics Weekly newsletter</a>.</em>]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171197/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>I am a former speechwriter for President George HW Bush, and a former Deputy Director of Communications at the Republican National Committee. My husband and I know the Youngkin family, as our daughters went to the same high school.</span></em></p>A former speechwriter for President George H.W. Bush watched the Virginia governor’s race through the eyes of her students at the University of Virginia, whose concerns were shared by most voters.Mary Kate Cary, Adjunct Professor, Department of Politics and Senior Fellow, UVA's Miller Center, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1647592021-07-20T12:14:55Z2021-07-20T12:14:55ZElection polls in 2020 produced ‘error of unusual magnitude,’ expert panel finds, without pinpointing cause<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411996/original/file-20210719-21-1yf4gz7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=30%2C20%2C6679%2C4446&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A voter exits a polling location on Election Day, Nov. 3, 2020 in Fort Worth, Texas. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/voter-exits-a-polling-location-on-november-03-2020-in-fort-news-photo/1283708803?adppopup=true">Tom Pennington/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>More than eight months after the <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-embarrassing-failure-for-election-pollsters-149499">acute polling embarrassment</a> in the 2020 U.S. elections – that produced the sharpest discrepancy between the polls and popular vote outcome since 1980 – survey experts examining what went wrong say they have no definitive answers about why polls erred as markedly as they did. </p>
<p>That inconclusive finding <a href="https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Reports/2020-Pre-Election-Polling-An-Evaluation-of-the-202.aspx">reported by a polling industry task force</a> will do little to assuage <a href="https://www.nccivitas.org/civitas-review/skeptical-polls-media-used/">popular skepticism</a> about election polls which, in one way or another, have misfired in all U.S. presidential races but one since 1996. </p>
<p>And if the source of the 2020 polling error cannot be pinpointed, then addressing and correcting it obviously becomes daunting.</p>
<p>Moreover, as I discussed in my book “<a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520300965/lost-in-a-gallup">Lost in a Gallup</a>,” polling failures in presidential elections <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/social-science-history/article/president-landon-and-the-1936-literary-digest-poll/E360C38884D77AA8D71555E7AB6B822C">since 1936</a> rarely have been repetitive. Just as no two elections are alike, no two polling failures are quite the same. </p>
<p>Over the years, pollsters have anticipated tight presidential elections when <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/november/5/newsid_3783000/3783245.stm">landslides have occurred</a>. They have signaled the wrong winner in closer elections. The estimates of venerable pollsters have been <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/158519/romney-obama-gallup-final-election-survey.aspx">singularly in error</a>. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2005/01/20/report-acknowledges-inaccuracies-in-2004-exit-polls/d895ea8c-b2ad-46ea-af6d-cc5acb011dd7/">Wayward exit polls</a> have <a href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2004-nov-04-na-pollsters4-story.html">thrown Election Day into confusion</a> by identifying the losing candidate as the likely winner. Off-target state polls have confounded expected national outcomes, which essentially was the story in 2016.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="One voter standing at a white voting both that sits on blue metal legs with casters." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A voter walks to a booth to fill out their ballot at Public School 160 on Nov. 3, 2020, in Brooklyn, N.Y.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/voter-walks-to-a-booth-to-fill-out-their-ballot-at-public-news-photo/1229441647?adppopup=true">David Dee Delgado/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Trump support underestimated</h2>
<p>In 2020, election polls pointed to Democrat Joe Biden’s winning the presidency. But collectively, the polls underestimated backing for then-President Donald Trump no matter how close to the election the survey was conducted and <a href="https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Election-Polling-Resources/Sampling-Methods-for-Political-Polling.aspx">regardless of the methods</a> pollsters chose. Surveys in races for U.S. senator and governor were beset by similar flaws.</p>
<p>Those were among the findings described in a report made available on July 19, 2021, that noted that voter-preference surveys in 2020 “featured polling error of an unusual magnitude” and that the discrepancy in the presidential race was the greatest in 40 years.</p>
<p>The experts, who comprised a <a href="https://www.aapor.org/Publications-Media/Press-Releases/AAPOR-Convenes-Task-Force-to-Formally-Examine-Poll.aspx">task force</a> of the <a href="https://www.aapor.org/">American Association for Public Opinion Research</a>, a survey industry organization, speculated that some Republicans may have been less willing than Democrats to be interviewed by pollsters – a hypothesis that could explain some of the polling error. But the task force report said “identifying conclusively” why polls erred “appears to be impossible with the available data.”</p>
<p>The task force, which included 19 members from the polling industry, the news media and academia, said it reviewed data from more than 2,800 polls and found that surveys in the 2020 presidential race overstated Biden’s popular vote advantage by 3.9 percentage points. </p>
<p>This marked the fourth presidential election in the past five in which the national polls, at least to some extent, exaggerated support for Democratic candidates.</p>
<h2>Masking dramatic miscalls</h2>
<p>Averaging the polling errors, as the task force did in conducting its months-long analysis, is broadly revealing about the extent of those errors. But it also has the effect of masking several dramatic miscalls in late-campaign polls conducted in 2020 by, or for, leading news organizations. </p>
<p>The final <a href="http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/10/28/rel15.pdf">CNN poll</a> had Biden ahead by 12 points. Surveys for The <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/president-trump-trails-joe-biden-by-10-points-nationally-in-final-days-of-election-11604239200">Wall Street Journal-NBC News</a> and by the <a href="https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/jsojry0vph/econTabReport.pdf">Economist-YouGov</a> had Biden winning by 10 percentage points as the campaign wound down. A few polls, such as <a href="https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/october-national-poll-biden-with-five-point-lead-one-week-out">Emerson College’s survey</a>, came close in estimating the outcome.</p>
<p>Biden won the popular vote by 4.5 percentage points.</p>
<p>The report said the task force rejected several prospective causes of polling error in 2020 – including those that likely distorted survey results in key states in 2016 when Trump unexpectedly won an Electoral College victory. Those factors included undecided voters swinging to Trump late in the campaign and a failure by some pollsters to adjust survey results to account for varying levels of education. </p>
<p>White voters without college degrees were understood to have voted heavily for Trump in 2016, but those voters were underrepresented in some polls in key states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where Trump won narrowly and surprisingly.</p>
<p>The task force also rejected as a factor in 2020 any errors pollsters made in projecting the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/01/07/why-the-likely-voter-is-the-holy-grail-of-polling/">likely makeup</a> of the electorate in terms of age, race, ethnicity and other factors – an estimate common to preelection surveys. </p>
<p>The task force reported finding “no evidence that polling error was caused by the underrepresentation or overrepresentation of particular demographics” in the preelection surveys.</p>
<p>Additionally, it is unclear whether Trump’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/us/politics/trump-polls.html">sharp criticism of preelection polls</a> in 2020 dissuaded his supporters from participating in surveys.</p>
<p>“So it’s possible that these may be short-term phenomena that will abate when Trump is not on the ballot,” <a href="https://twitter.com/danielmerkle?lang=en">Daniel Merkle</a>, the then-president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OM7AlsJ87qg">said in a speech</a> in May. </p>
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<p>“On the other hand,” Merkle said, “it could be a broader issue of conservatives becoming less likely to respond to polls in general because of a decline in social trust, or for some other reasons. It will take further evaluation to understand this nonresponse issue and to adjust for it.</p>
<p>"This may not be an easy task.” </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A screenshot of a Wall Street Journal story on Nov. 1, 2020, reporting a 10-point lead for Joe Biden in the final days of the 2020 campaign" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Like many news outlets, the WSJ overestimated Biden’s lead in the 2020 campaign.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/president-trump-trails-joe-biden-by-10-points-nationally-in-final-days-of-election-11604239200">The Wall Street Journal</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Overblown characterizations</h2>
<p>In the immediate aftermath of the 2020 election, several media critics declared that polling could be “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/media/we-still-dont-know-much-about-this-election--except-that-the-media-and-pollsters-blew-it-again/2020/11/04/40c0d416-1e4a-11eb-b532-05c751cd5dc2_story.html">irrevocably broken</a>” and faced “<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/polling-catastrophe/616986/">serious existential questions</a>.” </p>
<p>Such disquieting assertions seem overblown; <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/political-polling-trust-history.html">polls are not going to melt away</a>. After all, election polling represents a slice of a multibillion-dollar industry that includes consumer and product surveys of all types.</p>
<p>And if election polling survived the <a href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1998-nov-01-mn-38174-story.html">debacle of 1948</a> – when President Harry S. Truman <a href="https://www.baltimoresun.com/opinion/op-ed/bs-ed-op-1021-poll-mistakes-20181017-story.html">defied predictions of pollsters</a> and pundits to win reelection – then it surely will live on after the embarrassment of uncertain origin of 2020.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of <a href="https://theconversation.com/survey-experts-have-yet-to-figure-out-what-caused-the-most-significant-polling-error-in-40-years-in-trump-biden-race-160967">an article</a> originally published on May 20, 2021.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164759/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>W. Joseph Campbell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A task force of polling experts found surveys notably understated support for Donald Trump, both nationally and at the state level. Here’s what may have gone wrong, according to a polling historian.W. Joseph Campbell, Professor of Communication Studies, American University School of CommunicationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1609672021-05-20T12:23:50Z2021-05-20T12:23:50ZSurvey experts have yet to figure out what caused the most significant polling error in 40 years in Trump-Biden race<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401428/original/file-20210518-19-1df2r2l.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=54%2C27%2C4487%2C2914&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Biden supporters in Philadelphia celebrate when his win -- with a much smaller margin than predicted by polls -- was projected by news outlets on Nov. 7, 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-celebrate-while-listening-to-the-president-elect-joe-news-photo/1284491700?adppopup=true">Chris McGrath/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>More than six months after the astonishing <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-embarrassing-failure-for-election-pollsters-149499">polling embarrassment</a> in the 2020 U.S. elections, survey experts examining what went wrong are uncertain about what led to the sharpest discrepancy between the polls and popular vote outcome since Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter in a <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/november/4/newsid_3192000/3192279.stm">near-landslide</a> in 1980. </p>
<p>Lingering questions about the misfire in 2020, in which voter support for then-President Donald Trump was understated in final pre-election polls, suggest that troubles in accurately surveying presidential elections could be deeper and more profound than previously recognized. If the source of the polling miscall isn’t clear, then addressing and correcting it obviously becomes quite challenging.</p>
<p>Moreover, as I discussed in my 2020 book “<a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520300965/lost-in-a-gallup">Lost in a Gallup</a>,” polling failures in presidential elections <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/social-science-history/article/president-landon-and-the-1936-literary-digest-poll/E360C38884D77AA8D71555E7AB6B822C">since 1936</a> rarely have been repetitive. Just as no two elections are alike, no two polling failures are quite the same. </p>
<p>Over the years, pollsters have anticipated tight presidential elections when <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/november/5/newsid_3783000/3783245.stm">landslides have occurred</a>. They have signaled the wrong winner in closer elections. The estimates of venerable pollsters have been <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/158519/romney-obama-gallup-final-election-survey.aspx">singularly in error</a>. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2005/01/20/report-acknowledges-inaccuracies-in-2004-exit-polls/d895ea8c-b2ad-46ea-af6d-cc5acb011dd7/">Wayward exit polls</a> have <a href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2004-nov-04-na-pollsters4-story.html">thrown Election Day into confusion</a> by identifying the losing candidate as the likely winner. Off-target state polls have confounded expected national outcomes, which essentially was the story in 2016. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="One voter standing at a white voting both that sits on blue metal legs with casters." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A voter walks to a booth to fill out their ballot at Public School 160 on Nov. 3, 2020, in the Brooklyn borough of New York City.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/voter-walks-to-a-booth-to-fill-out-their-ballot-at-public-news-photo/1229441647?adppopup=true">David Dee Delgado/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Support that wasn’t there</h2>
<p>In 2020, overall, election polls pointed to Democrat Joe Biden’s winning the presidency. But the polls overstated support for Biden and underestimated backing for Trump no matter how close to the election the poll was conducted and <a href="https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Election-Polling-Resources/Sampling-Methods-for-Political-Polling.aspx">regardless of the methods</a> pollsters chose. Surveys in races for U.S. senator and governor were beset by similar shortcomings.</p>
<p>Those were among the key findings described recently at the annual conference of the <a href="https://www.aapor.org/">American Association for Public Opinion Research</a>, which was convened online. The organization had recruited a <a href="https://www.aapor.org/Publications-Media/Press-Releases/AAPOR-Convenes-Task-Force-to-Formally-Examine-Poll.aspx">task force</a> of 19 experts in survey research who examined the 2020 election polls in detail and reported being unable, so far, to pinpoint specific causes of polling errors. </p>
<p>Their findings did make clear, however, that the 2020 miscall was the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-biden-was-worst-presidential-polling-miss-in-40-years-panel-says-11620909178">most significant in 40 years</a>.</p>
<p>Polls in the presidential race in 2020 collectively overstated Biden’s lead by 3.9 percentage points, the task force chair, Joshua Clinton of Vanderbilt University, said in a presentation at the conference. </p>
<p>This marked the fourth presidential election in the past five in which the national polls, at least to some extent, overstated support for Democratic candidates.</p>
<h2>Masking dramatic miscalls</h2>
<p>Averaging the polling errors, as the task force did in conducting its analysis, is broadly revealing about the extent of those errors. But it has the effect of masking several dramatic miscalls in late-campaign polls conducted in 2020 by, or for, leading news organizations. The final <a href="http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/10/28/rel15.pdf">CNN poll</a> had Biden ahead by 12 points. Surveys for The <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/president-trump-trails-joe-biden-by-10-points-nationally-in-final-days-of-election-11604239200">Wall Street Journal-NBC News</a> and by the <a href="https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/jsojry0vph/econTabReport.pdf">Economist-YouGov</a> had Biden winning by 10 percentage points as the campaign wound down. A few polls, such as <a href="https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/october-national-poll-biden-with-five-point-lead-one-week-out">Emerson College’s survey</a>, came close in estimating the outcome.</p>
<p>Biden won the popular vote by 4.5 percentage points.</p>
<p>Clinton, the Vanderbilt professor, said the task force eliminated several prospective causes of polling error in 2020, including those that likely distorted survey results in key states in 2016 when Trump unexpectedly won an Electoral College victory. Those factors included undecided voters swinging to Trump late in the campaign and a failure by some pollsters to adjust survey results to account for varying levels of education. </p>
<p>White voters without college degrees were understood to have voted heavily for Trump in 2016, but those voters were underrepresented in some polls in key states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where Trump won narrowly and surprisingly.</p>
<p>A source of the miscalls in 2020, Clinton said, may have been that Republicans were less inclined than Democrats to agree to be interviewed by pollsters. </p>
<p>If that’s so, it’s not entirely clear why that happened. And that prospect troubles pollsters and survey research experts.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/staff/courtney-kennedy/">Courtney Kennedy</a>, director of survey research at Pew Research Center, said while moderating a panel discussion at the conference that “what keeps me from getting a good night’s sleep these days is the prospect … Republicans, or maybe certain types of Republicans, seem like they’re less inclined to participate in polls these days than Democrats.” </p>
<p>This may be a tough problem for pollsters to overcome, she said, adding, “It would be a real challenge” to calibrate poll-taking to capture such nuanced distinctions. </p>
<p>Likewise, it is unclear whether Trump’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/us/politics/trump-polls.html">sharp criticism of pre-election polls</a> in 2020 dissuaded his supporters from participating in surveys.</p>
<p>“So it’s possible that these may be short-term phenomena that will abate when Trump is not on the ballot,” <a href="https://twitter.com/danielmerkle?lang=en">Daniel Merkle</a>, president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OM7AlsJ87qg">said in a speech</a> recorded for conference-goers. </p>
<p>[<em>Over 106,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>“On the other hand, it could be a broader issue of conservatives becoming less likely to respond to polls in general because of a decline in social trust, or for some other reasons. It will take further evaluation to understand this nonresponse issue and to adjust for it. This may not be an easy task,” Merkle said. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A screenshot of a Wall Street Journal story on Nov. 1, 2020, reporting a 10-point lead for Joe Biden in the final days of the 2020 campaign" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Screenshot of a Wall Street Journal story about its poll with NBC News, showing Biden with a 10-point lead over Trump in the waning days of the 2020 campaign.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/president-trump-trails-joe-biden-by-10-points-nationally-in-final-days-of-election-11604239200">The Wall Street Journal</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Overblown characterizations</h2>
<p>In the immediate aftermath of the 2020 election, several media critics asserted that polling seemed “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/media/we-still-dont-know-much-about-this-election--except-that-the-media-and-pollsters-blew-it-again/2020/11/04/40c0d416-1e4a-11eb-b532-05c751cd5dc2_story.html">irrevocably broken</a>” and faced “<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/polling-catastrophe/616986/">serious existential questions</a>.” </p>
<p>Such alarming characterizations appear overblown; <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/political-polling-trust-history.html">polls are not going to melt away</a>. After all, election polling represents a slice of a multibillion-dollar industry that includes consumer and product surveys of all types.</p>
<p>And if election polling survived the <a href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1998-nov-01-mn-38174-story.html">debacle of 1948</a> – when President Harry S. Truman <a href="https://www.baltimoresun.com/opinion/op-ed/bs-ed-op-1021-poll-mistakes-20181017-story.html">defied predictions of pollsters</a> and pundits to win reelection – then it surely will live on after the embarrassment of 2020.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160967/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>W. Joseph Campbell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Stung by their failure to accurately predict the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, pollsters collectively went off to figure out what went wrong. They have yet to figure out what or why.W. Joseph Campbell, Professor of Communication Studies, American University School of CommunicationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1455772020-09-14T13:18:33Z2020-09-14T13:18:33ZAsian Americans’ political preferences have flipped from red to blue<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356576/original/file-20200904-14-1kh2pa4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4400%2C2680&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Asian American voters leave a Temple City, California, polling place in 2012, in the state's first legislative district that is majority Asian American.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/asian-americans-vote-on-election-day-at-a-dennys-restaurant-news-photo/155682080">Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Asian Americans used to be a reliable Republican voting bloc. But long before Kamala Harris, who is <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-kamala-harris-americans-yet-again-have-trouble-understanding-what-multiracial-means-145233">Indian American and Black</a>, became Joe Biden’s running mate, they shifted to support the Democratic Party. This is true across ages, genders and ethnic origins of Asian Americans – including <a href="https://theconversation.com/indian-americans-can-be-an-influential-voting-bloc-despite-their-small-numbers-144662">Indian</a>, Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese and Hmong.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=3y3BVcEAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">political scientist</a>, I’m not just interested in voting, but also in how groups change their party preferences. This subject of study, known as “<a href="https://www.questia.com/library/journal/1P4-2204514794/the-political-nor-easter-of-1992-a-northeastern-usa">critical elections</a>,” looks at how political party fortunes change over time as a result of racial, religious or regional groups’ changing views.</p>
<p><iframe id="UZCN9" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/UZCN9/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The timing of the transition</h2>
<p>Back in 1992, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2008/results/president/national-exit-polls.html">The New York Times added the Asian American demographic</a> to its exit polls. In that election, Asian Americans preferred incumbent Republican President George H. W. Bush to Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, a Democrat, by 24 percentage points – 55% to 31%. (Businessman and independent candidate H. Ross Perot got 15% of the Asian American vote, and Clinton won.) </p>
<p>Four years later, in the 1996 presidential election, 48% of Asian Americans supported Republican Bob Dole, and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2008/results/president/national-exit-polls.html">43% supported Clinton</a> – just a five-point Republican advantage.</p>
<p>Then, in 2000, Democrat Al Gore received <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2008/results/president/national-exit-polls.html">54% of the Asian American vote</a>, against 41% for Republican George W. Bush, the son of the man who had won a strong majority of the group’s vote just eight years earlier. </p>
<p>The trend continued in 2004 as 56% of Asian Americans backed Democrat John Kerry and in 2008 with a whopping <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2008/results/president/national-exit-polls.html">62%-35% advantage to Barack Obama</a> in those New York Times exit polls. </p>
<p>More recently, CNN’s exit polls showed a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/">73%-26% split in favor of Obama</a> over former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts in 2012, and a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls">65%-27% preference for Hillary Clinton</a> over Donald Trump in 2016.</p>
<p><a href="https://asamnews.com/2020/08/17/trump-behind-by-double-digit-among-asian-americans-in-new-apia-vote-apia-data-aajc-poll/">Preliminary data from late August 2020 polls</a> shows Biden leading comfortably among Asian Americans as well.</p>
<p>Since 2000, the <a href="https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2000/dec/phc-t-15.html">Asian American population has climbed 87%</a>, now <a href="https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=asian&tid=ACSDT1Y2018.B02011&hidePreview=false">exceeding 22 million</a>. In that same period, the number of Asian Americans eligible to vote has <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/05/07/asian-americans-are-the-fastest-growing-racial-or-ethnic-group-in-the-u-s-electorate/">more than doubled</a>, making it the fastest-growing racial or ethnic group in the electorate.</p>
<p>Once known for low turnout at the ballot box, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/05/01/historic-highs-in-2018-voter-turnout-extended-across-racial-and-ethnic-groups/">Asian American voting rates increased from 27% in 2014</a> to 40% in 2018, which is a big jump for a midterm election, showing an increased willingness to participate politically.</p>
<p><iframe id="Wq3BI" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wq3BI/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Almost all Asian groups now back Democrats</h2>
<p>It’s true that Asian Americans are <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/asian-american-voters-could-make-a-difference-in-2020/ar-BB17ktDR">not necessarily a homogeneous group</a>. Some have wondered if those with ties to countries that experienced communist rule <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/damn-socialism-why-are-you-chasing-me-chinese-americans-see-ghost-of-communism-in-democrats-leftward-turn">might be more supportive of the Republican Party</a>, which has historically strongly opposed communism.</p>
<p><a href="http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1514">Research by Catalina Huamei Huang</a> delves into these details, using data from the <a href="http://naasurvey.com/reports/">National Asian American Survey</a>.</p>
<p>She finds that all but one of the groups included in the survey’s <a href="http://naasurvey.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/NAAS16-Fall-Oct5-slides.pdf">fall 2016 poll</a> – <a href="https://theconversation.com/indian-americans-can-be-an-influential-voting-bloc-despite-their-small-numbers-144662">Indian</a>, Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese and Hmong – have an unfavorable assessment of the Republican Party. Cambodian Americans are split on the subject, with just under half disliking the party and a similar percentage liking it. In most groups – except Filipinos, Cambodians and Hmong – fewer than one-third view the Republican Party favorably.</p>
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<p>By contrast, in the same study, more than two-thirds of Hmong, Japanese and Indians view the Democratic Party favorably. Vietnamese and Cambodians are the only groups with fewer than half of their members who view the Democratic Party favorably. As Huang found, those numbers are similar to results in a <a href="https://advancingjustice-aajc.org/sites/default/files/2016-09/Inclusion%20Not%20Exclusion%20voter%20survey.pdf">spring 2016 survey</a> by the civil rights group Asian Americans Advancing Justice.</p>
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<h2>Asian American demographics go Democratic</h2>
<p>Huang’s analysis of both surveys also showed that Asian Americans of all ages are likely to be critical of Republicans. Younger people are more likely to be critical than their elders. All ages are also more likely to perceive the Democratic Party favorably, especially those under the age of 35. </p>
<p>Asian American men and women prefer the Democratic Party by wide margins, and think less well of the GOP.</p>
<p>Those demographic splits were also supported by Asian Americans’ assessments of the 2016 presidential candidates, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, in both polls, with the exception of Vietnamese Americans who were divided. In 2020, Asian Americans are, if anything, <a href="https://apnews.com/4b9c7f519a3951a6d34bbe91dd4fbe21">more negative about Trump</a> than they are <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-asian-americans-dont-vote-republican-48369">toward his party</a>. With Biden’s choice of Harris as a running mate, Asian Americans of all backgrounds may further solidify their support for the Democratic Party.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145577/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John A. Tures does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Asian Americans were engaged in an electoral realignment long before Kamala Harris was added to the 2020 Democratic ticket.John A. Tures, Professor of Political Science, LaGrange CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1334782020-03-11T18:14:10Z2020-03-11T18:14:10ZBiden’s win shows the power of Democratic moderates<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319904/original/file-20200311-116240-15uq64l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Joe and Jill Biden address the press the evening of the Idaho, Missouri, Michigan, Washington, Mississippi and North Dakota primaries.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2020-Joe-Biden/34387e81c9074d8cbe71805079642649/33/0">AP Photo/Matt Rourke</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Super Tuesday II marked <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/March_10_presidential_primaries,_2020">Democratic primary elections</a> in six states: Idaho, Missouri, Michigan, Washington, Mississippi and North Dakota.</p>
<p>The candidates entered the races on level fields, with Biden enjoying a slight delegate edge over Sanders. Biden’s lead is now decisive, and there is a <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/">high probability</a> he will emerge as the Democratic nominee.</p>
<p>Despite his victory, Biden continues to struggle with young voters. He faces difficulties in appealing to the most ideologically extreme wing of the party, which also tends to be younger. Sanders would have required <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/25/21152538/bernie-sanders-electability-president-moderates-data">unprecedented youth turnout to beat Trump</a> in November. By some estimates, youth turnout would need to increase some 30 percentage points over 2016. </p>
<p>Still, youth turnout in the general election has historically slightly exceeded 40 percentage points. Biden will need to appeal to this demographic, if he is to stay competitive against Trump. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/exit-polls-2020-michigan-march-10-primary/">Exit polling in Michigan</a> further clarified the ideological lane the party is likely to occupy this fall. It is becoming clear the party will adopt a center-left agenda. </p>
<p>The 2020 Democratic primaries are frequently cast as referenda on ideological extremism versus moderation.</p>
<p>“I was told at the beginning of this whole undertaking that there are two lanes, a progressive lane that Bernie Sanders is the incumbent for and a moderate lane that Joe Biden is the incumbent for, and there’s no room for anyone else in this,” <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/05/warrens-right-she-was-stuck-lane-couldnt-pass-sanders/">Elizabeth Warren told the Washington Post</a>. “I thought that wasn’t right, but evidently it was.”</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319878/original/file-20200311-168563-ei8739.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319878/original/file-20200311-168563-ei8739.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319878/original/file-20200311-168563-ei8739.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319878/original/file-20200311-168563-ei8739.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319878/original/file-20200311-168563-ei8739.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319878/original/file-20200311-168563-ei8739.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319878/original/file-20200311-168563-ei8739.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319878/original/file-20200311-168563-ei8739.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A voter fills in a ballot at the the Summit View Church of the Nazarene in Kansas City, Missouri.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2020-Voting-Virus-Outbreak/7a9ebcbbc7d94741b95aaa51371ff2ab/2/0">AP Photo/Charlie Riedel</a></span>
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<p>Sanders enjoyed a 34 percentage point edge among strong liberals. Biden enjoyed an almost equal lead among moderates and conservatives. But even more revealing was Biden’s 18 percentage point lead in Michigan or all over in Michigan among people who described themselves as “somewhat liberal.”</p>
<p>In the Michigan <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/exit-polls-2020-michigan-march-10-primary/">exit poll</a>, 40% described themselves as “somewhat liberal,” also known as center-left voters. The fact that Biden is drawing strong support from center-left voters is important for a simple reason: They constitute a large share of the Democratic coalition. </p>
<p>Data from the <a href="https://www.voterstudygroup.org/">2016 Democracy Fund’s Voter’s Study</a> survey reveals a similar dynamic. At 27%, center-left is the second most popular choice among Democrats, behind “moderate or conservative.”</p>
<p>Thirty-three percent of non-Hispanic white Democrats describe themselves as somewhat liberal. Among African American Democratic identifiers, 34% identify as somewhat liberal, and so do 33% of Latinx Democrats. </p>
<p>Biden’s lead among this group shows he is making clear inroads with a large share of the party.</p>
<p>[<em>You’re too busy to read everything. We get it. That’s why we’ve got a weekly newsletter.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybusy">Sign up for good Sunday reading.</a> ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133478/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Weber does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It is becoming clear that this election season, the Democratic Party will likely adopt a center-left agenda.Chris Weber, Associate Professor in the School of Government and Public Policy, University of ArizonaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/729482017-02-28T01:58:19Z2017-02-28T01:58:19ZThe Democratic Party is facing a demographic crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/156818/original/image-20170214-25969-wwt6mj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Will voters of the future swing left or right?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/joebeone/292530213/in/photolist-rRi3n-5XwvJi-5xyTuC-4rPToK-4qjgEp-5y1Btd-8QshrR-aE6K6T-5zjpuD-dri94V-7d3uUD-5UGoNJ-dgZNwN-yhEor-pY8P6B-8SwjFU-rLrhm-bbEMW-9iyD2P-92WvzG-6FY8LR-draorJ-92ToFr-dgZNGH-dgZNz8-4qscko-hstQkU-qvbra1-drdjvY-fWTjZ-5KbrCH-9j8L8k-5zjcYV-64Z9ob-hinuvw-4tfjfF-dpjJ1d-64UREp-ypku5-5zMwyV-HV12FW-5zm6fJ-5Ep8Yx-5zMx7B-5B5bq6-Lvin9-5zjadH-4EjCUY-7f2k-drfEbY">Cropped from joebeone/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2008, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama outperformed his predecessors John Kerry and Al Gore with virtually every single demographic group, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2008/results/president/map.html">handily defeating his Republican rival</a> John McCain. </p>
<p>This success spread to down-ballot races as well. Democrats expanded control over the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2008/results/house/votes.html">House</a> and the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2008/results/senate/votes.html">Senate</a>, and they controlled most <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2008/results/governor/votes.html">governorships</a> and <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/print/legismgt/statevote/statevote2008.pdf">state legislatures</a> nationwide. </p>
<p>Many progressives came to believe <a href="http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/02/data-driven-campaigns-democrats-need-message-214759">these results were not a fluke</a>. Obama’s coalition seemed to herald an <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/13/pemanent-democratic-major_n_186257.html">emerging Democratic majority</a> that stood to <a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/09/12/the-rise-of-the-new-new-left.html">reshape politics as we know it</a>. </p>
<p>The logic was simple. Most of those who are young, college-educated, women or minorities lean left. Older white men leaned right, but whites were declining as a portion of the electorate due to immigration and interracial unions. Therefore, as the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/more-whites-die-than-are-born-in-one-third-of-states-1480433481">older generation passed away</a> and a younger, more diverse and more educated cohort stepped into the fore, America would become more progressive in an enduring way.</p>
<p>Right now, these predictions are not looking so good. In a virtual inversion of 2008, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/10/the-decimation-of-the-democratic-party-visualized/">only worse</a>, Republicans control both chambers of Congress and stand to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/01/03/the-senate-map-just-cant-get-much-better-for-republicans-in-2018/">expand their control of the Senate</a> in 2018. Republicans also dominate <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/02/06/in-these-10-states-the-democratic-party-is-basically-on-life-support/">state legislatures and governorships nationwide</a>. </p>
<p>It may be tempting to <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/11/the_democratic_party_establishment_is_finished_after_trump.html">hold onto the faith</a> in an emerging Democratic majority. Some predict Trump will <a href="http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/how-trump-can-ensure-democratic-dominance-for-generations-213102">self-destruct</a> and his followers will be <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Strangers-Their-Own-Land-Mourning/dp/1620972255/">consigned to irrelevance</a>, to the “<a href="http://nypost.com/2014/03/21/the-pathetic-wrong-side-of-history-plea/">wrong side of history</a>,” as President Obama often phrased it. </p>
<p>On the one hand, as a social psychologist, I understand this impulse toward comforting thoughts. However, given <a href="http://fiatsophia.org/">my background</a> in applied social epistemology, I also know it is imperative for progressives to have a clear-eyed view of the situation at hand. </p>
<p>The Democratic Party is in crisis. Demographics will be unlikely to save them. If anything, the trend seems to be going in the other direction.</p>
<h2>From ballot counting to exit polls</h2>
<p>The Democratic coalition rapidly deteriorated after the 2008 election. In the 2010 midterms, the Democrats lost the House in the <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1326053/MID-TERM-ELECTIONS-2010-Democrats-lose-House-Republican-tsunami.html">most sweeping congressional reversal of the preceding 62 years</a>. The hole only got deeper in 2014, as the <a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2014/11/04/gop-seizes-control-of-the-senate.html">Senate also came under Republican control</a>. </p>
<p>Between 2008 and 2016, there was a dramatic downward trajectory across presidential races as well. </p>
<p>In 2008, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2008/results/president/map.html">Barack Obama beat John McCain</a> by 192 Electoral College votes and 8.54 million popular votes. In 2012, he <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2012/results/president.html">beat Mitt Romney</a> by just 126 electoral votes and 3.48 million popular votes. Obama’s margin of victory, while objectively comfortable, represented a 59 percent decline in the size of his popular vote lead. </p>
<p>In 2016, Hillary Clinton <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president">won the popular vote by 2.87 million votes</a>. Even if she had won the presidency, her performance would have marked another steep decline in Democrats’ margin of victory, down a whopping 66 percent from 2008. It would have been the narrowest popular vote margin of any winning candidate <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/politics/2004_ELECTIONRESULTS_GRAPHIC/">since the 2000 election</a>.</p>
<p>However, Clinton’s popular vote lead <a href="http://heavy.com/news/2016/11/popular-vote-results-2016-clinton-trump-2012-2008-vs-electoral-college-california-uncounted-ballots-new-york-update-totals-final/">came overwhelmingly from</a> densely populated and left-leaning states like California. Relative to Barack Obama, she <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/obama-clinton-campaign-work-231370">underperformed in key midwestern states</a>, ultimately losing the Electoral College by 74 votes and costing the Democrats the White House. </p>
<p>To better understand this loss, I turned to <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-do-you-read-an-election-poll-41204">exit polls</a>, surveys of voters taken directly after voting. Exit polls are a great resource for understanding why a Democratic majority has failed to emerge over the last 10 years. They are specifically designed to help pundits and analysts <a href="http://fiatsophia.org/2016/11/28/progressives-may-wrong-side-history/4/">make sense of electoral outcomes</a> and produce narrative frames. </p>
<p>New York Times exit poll data from the last three midterm and presidential cycles reveals distinct longitudinal trends across demographic dimensions such as gender, race, age, income, educational attainment and ideological alignment. </p>
<p>As one might imagine given the Democrats’ breathtaking electoral collapse, there is basically nothing but bad news for Democrats across the board. The data showed that the voting patterns of key demographic groups shifted dramatically downward from 2008 through 2016. </p>
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<h2>A reality check</h2>
<p>Despite these trends, many popular narratives about the 2016 election seem to reinforce the concept of an emerging Democratic majority. </p>
<p>For instance, there is a common misconception that Trump was ushered into power by <a href="https://mic.com/articles/159184/who-voted-for-donald-trump-old-white-men-according-to-exit-polls-lots-of-them/">old, white, economically disenfranchised men</a>. However, according to the exit polls, Trump actually did worse than Romney among whites and seniors, but <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-probably-did-better-with-latino-voters-than-romney-did/">outperformed him</a> among blacks, Asians, Hispanics and young people. </p>
<p>While the Democrats lost a lot of support <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/12/the_myth_of_the_rust_belt_revolt.html">among low-income Americans</a>, I think it would be a mistake to interpret these as Trump’s base. He won a plurality of every income bracket above US$50,000 as well. He also won more non-Christian and nonreligious voters than any Republican since the 2000 election.</p>
<p>However the biggest surprise of 2016 probably relates to gender. The first major party female candidate for president, running against a <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/140248/failures-mainstream-feminism-misogyny-doom-hillary-clinton">notorious misogynist</a>, captured the Democrats’ lowest share of female voters since 2004. And although Trump also got a lower share of female voters than his last three Republican predecessors, he nonetheless won over <a href="https://mic.com/articles/158995/more-white-women-voted-for-donald-trump-than-for-hillary-clinton">a majority of white women</a>. </p>
<p>Granted, Trump’s candidacy and campaign were exceptional. However, it would be a mistake to think of these outcomes as <a href="http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/30/13795728/nancy-pelosis-victory-ryan">aberrations</a> rather than the <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/12/06/its-the-globalization-stupid/">culmination of a long-running trend</a>. Contrary to the emerging Democratic majority thesis, there does not seem to be any demographic category with which Democrats are progressively improving. </p>
<p>However, there are lots of them on the Republican side.</p>
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<h2>The perils of identity politics</h2>
<p>Democrats may try to assure themselves that things are not so bleak. The party still pulls in nearly 90 percent of the black vote, two-thirds of Hispanic or Asian votes, and majorities among racial and ethnic “others.” They continue to capture a majority of women and young people. While the exit polls show that Republicans have been consistently chipping away at this coalition, the trend does not suggest the GOP will actually win majorities from any of these groups anytime soon.</p>
<p>But here’s the rub: Republicans actually don’t need to outright win – or even come close to winning – any of these demographic categories in order to come out ahead. If minority turnout is low, Republicans win. If Democrats fail to capture 2012 levels of black, Hispanic and Asian votes, they lose. It doesn’t really matter if lost votes go to Republicans or independents – the outcome is the same. </p>
<p>The Democrats’ current coalition presents a very narrow path to victory. Minority groups like LGBTQ, Jewish, Muslim, Asian, black or Hispanic Americans each comprise just a <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/most-americans-overestimate-muslim-population-17x-poll-shows-n696071">small slice of the electorate</a>. Meanwhile, whites amount to no less than 70 percent. This means Democrats can get 100 percent of the votes from all other groups combined, and still not be anywhere near a majority unless they get at least a third of the remaining white vote. However, Democrats <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/09/will-blacks-continue-to-toe-the-democratic-party-line/432759/">do not have unanimous support</a> from any of these populations. </p>
<p>Minority votes also <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/06/25/majority-minority-districts-are-products-of-geography-not-voting-rights-act/">tend to be concentrated</a> in relatively safe states and voting districts. To win statewide or national races, Democrats would have to capture an even larger share of the white vote than the raw electoral share data would suggest – particularly in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/02/14/red-america-is-an-illusion-postindustrial-towns-go-for-democrats-heres-the-data/">rural and suburban areas</a> which tend to have <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/02/14/this-is-why-democrats-lose-in-rural-post-industrial-america/">higher turnout</a> despite their lower populations.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, most of the “favorable” demographic shifts for Democrats have occurred in districts <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/23/upshot/how-the-obama-coalition-crumbled-leaving-an-opening-for-trump.html">that are basically noncompetitive</a>. So long as this trend holds, Democrats stand to benefit little, if at all, in terms of congressional seats or Electoral College votes, regardless of how many more Americans happen to fall into Democratic-leaning categories.</p>
<p>Moreover, <a href="http://prospect.org/article/likely-persistence-white-majority-0">ideological affiliations</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/01/06/will-democrats-gain-as-the-u-s-gets-more-diverse-maybe-not-heres-why/">perceived interests</a> tend to grow more diverse within groups as they expand. Therefore, while Hispanic and Asian voters currently skew heavily toward Democrats, Republicans could actually end up benefiting more in the long run from the projected demographic shifts.</p>
<p>Finally, Democrats <a href="http://www.npr.org/2016/03/04/469052020/the-democratic-party-got-crushed-during-the-obama-presidency-heres-why">rely heavily on irregular voters</a> to win national contests, particularly during years with presidential elections. This group tends to stay home <a href="http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/02/data-driven-campaigns-democrats-need-message-214759">unless they are actively inspired</a>. And even when these voters truly believe in a candidate or cause, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/04/democrats-dont-vote/389898/">they can be easily discouraged</a> from going to the polls.</p>
<p>Adjusting for relative participation rates, internal disagreement and uneven geographic distribution, a winning Democratic coalition would likely require a ratio of at least one non-minority white for each minority constituent. And to the extent that Republicans actually do rally the white vote – again, Trump did not – Democrats’ margin for error more or less vanishes. Yet <a href="http://fiatsophia.org/2015/08/25/its-time-to-stop-patronizing-white-people/">Democratic support among white voters</a> has plummeted in every election since 2008. This trend <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/20/opinion/sunday/the-end-of-identity-liberalism.html">is not sustainable</a> if progressives aspire toward any kind of majority coalition in any foreseeable future. </p>
<h2>Looking forward</h2>
<p>Obama’s election <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/why-permanent-democratic-majority-not-demographic-inevitability-part-one-antecedents/">was not the first time</a> Democrats prophesied a permanent majority. Similar claims were made prior to the ascendance of Nixon, and then again just before Reagan took the country by storm. This track record alone should inspire deep skepticism about deterministic and epochal political predictions. </p>
<p>Progressives <a href="http://theweek.com/articles/632380/how-brexit-shattered-progressives-dearest-illusions">don’t have any kind of “lock”</a> on the future. In the near term, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/29/how-the-democrats-could-win-again-if-they-wanted">absent radical change</a>, the situation <a href="https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/32748/emerging-republican-advantage">may even grow worse</a> for them. </p>
<p>But Republicans should hardly grow complacent with their apparent advantage either. In U.S. politics, overwhelming majorities <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/07/02/there_are_no_permanent_majorities_in_america_97110.html">tend to be unstable</a>. Nothing is truly inevitable until it actually happens.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72948/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Musa al-Gharbi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As America becomes more diverse, many think it will also become more progressive. But one analysis of demographic trends points to gains for Republicans.Musa al-Gharbi, Paul F. Lazarsfeld Fellow in Sociology, Columbia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.