Tidal surges can cause enormous damage.
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Local communities need to be warned more clearly and effectively if there is a threat of a storm surge and of coastal flooding.
Thick smoke rolling in from Canada’s 2023 wildfires was a wakeup call for several cities.
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Air quality forecasting is getting better, thanks in part to AI. That’s good, given the health impact of air pollution. An environmental engineer explains how systems warn of incoming smog or smoke.
Extreme heat can put lives at risk, making accurate forecasts essential for people working outdoors.
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Three economists looked at years of temperature and death data and calculated the costs when forecasts miss the mark.
In the future, our computer may be able to produce long-term forecasts in areas such as climate change, bushfires and financial markets – while being cheaper and more accessible than supercomputers.
A tornado touches down.
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Researchers are turning to computer models, drones and other methods to improve tornado forecasting.
To find out how well social scientists can predict societal change, researchers ran the largest forecasting initiative in the field’s history. Here’s what they found.
A sobering picture emerges from a study testing social scientists’ ability to predict societal change during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Sea-level rise isn’t the only climate-related problem for our coasts – extreme waves that cause flooding and erosion are also changing, but exactly how is hard to predict.
Following historic drought in 2021, reservoir levels dropped down in the Hoover Dam on the Colorado River, which gets its waters from the melting snowpack from the Rocky Mountains of Colorado and Wyoming.
Unprecedented droughts leave the subsurface drier than usual, affecting water supply in subsequent years.
The mathematical concept of a fractal is a never-ending pattern.
The assumption that more detail is better is questioned by a new study.
Who will be next to cross this stage and accept a Nobel Prize?
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Buying and selling stocks – with real or play money – is a way to harness the wisdom of the crowd about questions like who is going to win a competition.
Common hazel dispersing pollen in early spring.
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Pollen brings seasonal misery to millions of Americans, but it serves a critical purpose: fertilizing many kinds of plants, including food crops.
If the forecast system works, African cities need significant on the ground support.
Could South Africa’s flooding in 2022 have been foreseen? It has long been a challenge for scientists and engineers around the world.
Weather forecasting is complex and challenging. The process entails three steps: observation, analysis and communication.
A satellite view on the night of Dec. 15, 2021, at the same time tornadoes were reported in Iowa.
Forecasters described it as a ‘historical weather day.’ An atmospheric scientist who was at the heart of the storms explains what happened.
Tiny changes, like a butterfly’s wing flapping, can be amplified downstream in a chaotic system.
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Part of the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded for work modeling Earth’s climate using its chaotic, complex weather. To scientists, chaos lies in the gray zone between randomness and predictability.
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Some so-called superforecasters are claimed to have predicted the course of the pandemic better than scientific experts.
Preparing for a hurricane on North Carolina’s vulnerable Outer Banks.
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New Orleans has about a 40% chance of getting hit by a tropical storm in any given year. Here’s how heat, winds and the shape of the seafloor raise the hurricane damage risk.
As the old joke goes, it’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.
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Can political prediction models pick the election winner better than the polls, the weather or Washington’s football team?
Many of the more formal models for predicting the pandemic try to understand why changes happen – but often it can be more accurate to ignore the reasons and simply look at the data.
The global financial crisis taught us recoveries needn’t be V-shaped.