tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/fracking-uk-64012/articlesFracking UK – The Conversation2022-10-04T15:05:21Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1916362022-10-04T15:05:21Z2022-10-04T15:05:21ZFracking: the simple test for whether it should happen in the UK<p>The UK’s new prime minister, Liz Truss, recently <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-government-takes-next-steps-to-boost-domestic-energy-production">announced</a> the reversal of the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-ends-support-for-fracking">2019 ban</a> on fracking. Facing an acute energy crisis, the government want to increase domestic energy production. </p>
<p>According to conventional economic theory, whether or not fracking should occur is simple. If the private benefits exceed the social costs, then fracking companies should be able to obtain local consent by compensating households with cash. If the costs are so large that households cannot be compensated, then fracking should not happen.</p>
<p>Yet in recent history fracking has occurred irrespective of whether there is a public appetite. In 2016, the government <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/06/uk-fracking-given-go-ahead-as-lancashire-council-rejection-is-overturned">permitted</a> fracking at <a href="https://cuadrillaresources.uk/our-sites/preston-new-road/">Fylde’s Preston New Road site</a>, overturning Lancashire county council’s initial rejection. </p>
<p>The current approach echoes this. Despite <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-lancashire-63073928">announcing</a> that fracking will only take place where there is local consent, guidance on how this will be gauged is unclear. A framework for transparent cost-benefit analysis on prospective extraction sites has so far <a href="https://www.ukpol.co.uk/jacob-rees-mogg-2022-statement-on-shale-gas-extraction/">not been introduced</a>.</p>
<p>Fracking in the UK has a difficult history. However, if fracking is to play a role in the country’s future, how should it unfold?</p>
<h2>Calculating fracking’s worth</h2>
<p>The first step is to estimate how much companies are willing to pay for the right to explore for and extract shale gas in a given area. This represents fracking’s private benefit. </p>
<p>The introduction of <a href="https://www.itu.int/itunews/issue/2000/09/the_dawn.html">3G mobile communication services</a> in the UK illustrates how this can be done. How much mobile operators valued a license to provide 3G was unknown, but overcharging might have delayed the development of critical communications infrastructure.</p>
<p>An <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/0895330027166">auction</a> was held, allowing mobile operators to bid competitively until each of the five licenses were allocated to the highest bidder. The auction raised £22.5 billion and established precisely how much companies valued the licenses. </p>
<p>Auctions have become regular practice in UK utility markets. Renewable energy companies <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/contracts-for-difference/contract-for-difference">compete</a> for contracts to produce electricity. The bidder offering electricity at the lowest price is paid a flat rate for their production over the next fifteen years, insulating them from volatile market prices. </p>
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<img alt="A fishing boat in front of an offshore wind farm against a deep sunset sky." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487854/original/file-20221003-9808-k7g16f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487854/original/file-20221003-9808-k7g16f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487854/original/file-20221003-9808-k7g16f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487854/original/file-20221003-9808-k7g16f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487854/original/file-20221003-9808-k7g16f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487854/original/file-20221003-9808-k7g16f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487854/original/file-20221003-9808-k7g16f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Auctions have become regular practice in UK utility markets.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/fishing-boat-wind-turbines-135915140">ShaunWilkinson/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Through a similar process, it would be possible to accurately determine the value of shale gas extraction in the UK. For each potential extraction site, fracking firms could bid competitively for exclusive drilling rights. The winning bid would be legally bound to an upfront payment to the local authority in the case that consent is given.</p>
<h2>Involving local consent</h2>
<p>The second part of the process should then determine whether firms’ valuation of shale gas extraction is higher than the social cost. </p>
<p>The costs associated with fracking are high. Shale gas is mostly methane, a fossil fuel <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/review-of-the-geological-science-of-shale-gas-fracturing">with high carbon emissions</a>. </p>
<p>Its extraction also involves drilling using a high pressure mixture of water, sand and chemicals. Fracking in the UK has been <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-47816810">linked</a> to several local earthquakes as a result. The process also produces highly saline <a href="https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlehtml/2018/ew/c7ew00474e">wastewater</a> that must be disposed of. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/science/trackers/should-britain-start-extracting-shale-gas">recent survey</a> shows just 27% of Britons support fracking. </p>
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<p>However, <a href="https://www.lancs.live/news/cost-of-living/lancashire-residents-who-back-fracking-24904173">reports</a> indicate that fracking firms are currently <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/about-shale-gas-and-hydraulic-fracturing-fracking/developing-shale-oil-and-gas-in-the-uk#regulation">obtaining consent</a> in Lancashire by negotiating directly with individual households. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0095069622000353">Research</a> into the Texan fracking industry shows that this approach underestimates the social cost. Fracking companies generally have a greater knowledge of their own industry and the legalities of licensing law than households. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488011/original/file-20221004-12-okpt28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A close-up shot of a gas drilling unit in a rugged arid landscape against a cloudy blue sky." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488011/original/file-20221004-12-okpt28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488011/original/file-20221004-12-okpt28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488011/original/file-20221004-12-okpt28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488011/original/file-20221004-12-okpt28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488011/original/file-20221004-12-okpt28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488011/original/file-20221004-12-okpt28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488011/original/file-20221004-12-okpt28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">In Texas, fracking companies obtain consent by negotiating directly with households.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/west-texas-pumping-unit-1104529418">Sean Hannon acritelyphoto/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>The researchers also found that factors including language, poverty and race also determined how much compensation a household received. In Texas, non-native English speakers generally received comparatively low compensation, while their contracts were 10% less likely to contain environmental, noise or road traffic clauses.</p>
<p>To avoid this issue, county or city councils could instead grant approval if they deem the compensation offered to local residents as sufficiently high. Councils generally command greater <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2017-11/trust-in-professions-veracity-index-2017-slides.pdf">public trust</a> than national politicians and through local consultations, a more precise estimate of fracking’s cost to local residents can be gauged. </p>
<h2>Does fracking make economic sense?</h2>
<p>By comparing valuations of the costs and benefits, a decision on whether there is a case for fracking can be made. If the industry believes there is an abundance of shale gas to extract, then it may well resume.</p>
<p>However, there are <a href="https://theconversation.com/fracking-if-liz-truss-wants-a-major-shale-gas-industry-she-is-280-million-years-late-190421">doubts</a> over whether Britain has enough shale gas reserves for fracking to become commercially viable. The British Geological Survey <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-11653-4.pdf">reported</a> in 2019 that the UK has ten times less shale gas reserves than the level cited by fracking advocates. </p>
<p>Since then, the scientific evidence has not changed and even the UK shale gas industry has recognised fracking’s minimal value. Shale gas executives are <a href="https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1495699340819668994">cautious</a> not to claim that the UK industry can cut soaring energy bills. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261918301764">Questions</a> remain over the economic viability of UK fracking. However, if it is to have a future then this should be determined by a system of formal compensation and consent. This way, if shale gas extraction in the UK is as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/21/fracking-wont-work-uk-founder-chris-cornelius-cuadrilla">futile</a> as the science suggests, then it will not happen.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191636/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Renaud Foucart does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fracking in the UK has a difficult history – economic theory suggests that whether fracking should occur is a simple case of consent and compensation.Renaud Foucart, Senior Lecturer in Economics, Lancaster University Management School, Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1913932022-09-27T16:24:27Z2022-09-27T16:24:27ZWhy fracking holds such symbolic power for the Conservative right<p>The UK government has lifted a moratorium on hydraulic fracturing (or “fracking”) in England. In his statement, new business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg argued that it was in the national interest for local communities to tolerate “<a href="https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2022-09-22/hcws295">a higher degree of risk and disturbance</a>” given the current energy crisis. </p>
<p>Much has already been written about the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-liz-trusss-government-means-for-climate-action-190280">potential impacts of this policy change</a>. Instead, I want to look at what this decision means on a symbolic level. </p>
<p>Policies have an important symbolic dimension, meaning they can be read as expressing particular messages to an audience. For instance, a policy can signal who we are and what we stand for, where we’ve been and where we should go, ways of living that we should seek to maintain or attain, and threats and opportunities to doing so. </p>
<p>Politicians know this, which is why political statements are often carefully crafted to hit particular notes that resonate with the identities, aspirations and fears of particular audiences. So, what is this policy trying to signal?</p>
<h2>‘The problem with this country is that we don’t make things anymore’</h2>
<p>In my academic research I have looked at how fracking has been framed in <a href="http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/85010/">the UK policy debate</a>. Enthusiasm for the idea that the UK should attempt to repeat the US shale revolution started to emerge among a group of backbenchers <a href="http://www.ukuh.org/media/sites/researchwebsites/2ukuh/89490%20SGUK%20Political%20Debate.pdf">over a decade ago</a>. Those backbenchers predominantly came from <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09644016.2020.1740555">the right of the Conservative party</a>, but the group also included Labour MPs representing what we would now call the former “red wall”. </p>
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<p>While the prospect of tax revenue and improved energy security obviously played a role, the single most important reason underpinning their enthusiasm for shale was what we might call <a href="http://www.ukuh.org/media/sites/researchwebsites/2ukuh/89490%20SGUK%20Political%20Debate.pdf">competitiveness anxiety</a>. They looked across the Atlantic and saw gas prices tumbling in the US and worried about the competitiveness of energy-intensive industries in the UK.</p>
<p>Such worries grew out of a wider and longer-term sense of melancholy about British post-war industrial decline. A key appeal of fracking was the hope that it would slow or even reverse this slide by both creating industrial jobs in the fracking industry and saving them in energy-intensive industries. </p>
<p>This view was encouraged by the fact that the most promising UK shale gas resources happen to sit under parts of the Midlands and the north of England that have been among the worst affected by deindustrialisation.</p>
<p>It wasn’t just hope that animated support for fracking, but fear about the consequences of failing to grasp the opportunity and what that would say about the country. Speaking to people who supported fracking I was often struck by the recurring sense of a bleak future for the UK if it was rejected. </p>
<p>At times their discourse painted a picture of complacent moral failure. The UK was seen as a consumer economy that no longer makes things, and an overly-sensitive net importer of energy that expects secure and affordable supplies while no longer tolerating the impacts of energy production.</p>
<p>The point is not necessarily that this picture is accurate, but that it rings true to some people. The decision to overturn the moratorium signals that the new government is taking these hopes and fears seriously. It says that this perceived decadence and over-sensitivity will not be indulged.</p>
<h2>‘You can’t stop using fossil fuels overnight’</h2>
<p>The UK government always maintained that shale gas was compatible with the country’s climate change policies as it could <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/shale-gas-and-oil-policy-statement-by-decc-and-dclg/shale-gas-and-oil-policy-statement-by-decc-and-dclg">bridge the gap</a>“ between coal being phased out and more nuclear and renewables being deployed. </p>
<p>However, the right wing of the Conservative party has often demonstrated scepticism if not hostility towards renewables and the transition to a low-carbon economy. These days, such thinking tends to coalesce around the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60572049">Net Zero Scrutiny Group</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486804/original/file-20220927-20-qt8xga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Protesters hold 'frack free Stockport' sign" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486804/original/file-20220927-20-qt8xga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486804/original/file-20220927-20-qt8xga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486804/original/file-20220927-20-qt8xga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486804/original/file-20220927-20-qt8xga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486804/original/file-20220927-20-qt8xga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486804/original/file-20220927-20-qt8xga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486804/original/file-20220927-20-qt8xga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Fracking remains unpopular among the general public.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">John B Hewitt / shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>These legislators, and the section of public opinion they speak for, value fossil fuels for the wealth they have produced and the comfortable lifestyles they have enabled. They worry that the transition to a low-carbon economy threatens this. </p>
<p>They tend to see themselves as realists and pragmatists, in contrast to (what they see as) the naive idealism of environmentalists. They tend to favour what might be called a managed transition to a low-carbon economy and think that more radical pathways will threaten prosperity and limit human lifestyles. </p>
<p>Indeed, they tend to consider the natural world as a resource to be exploited to <a href="https://global.oup.com/ukhe/product/the-politics-of-the-earth-9780198851745?cc=gb&lang=en&">fulfil human wants and needs</a>. The notion of placing limits on human activity and consumption for the sake of environmental protection is <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/06/30/energy-rationing-inevitable-without-fundamental-rethink-net/">anathema</a> to this perspective.</p>
<p>The perspective I’ve sketched out here is of course contestable. My point is simply that it exists, it is concentrated in the Tory right, and the decision to overturn the fracking moratorium appeals to it. </p>
<p>As such, while the moratorium was not related to climate change, the decision to overturn it nonetheless signals that the new government will bring (what it sees as) a hard-headedness to energy and climate policy. And that, when push comes to shove, it will likely favour growth and short-term societal needs over the environment.</p>
<h2>Limited public appeal</h2>
<p>Of course, what sounds like sweet music to the ears of those with the above political impulses will sound utterly discordant to many others. Attempts to speed up planning consents will <a href="https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/don-t-fast-track-fracking">reactivate concerns</a> about industrialisation and local democracy, and the ongoing <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59207416">sewage discharge scandal</a> has surely not helped promote trust in UK environmental regulation. On climate change, fracking is widely perceived <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421522003573?via%25253Dihub&key=cc6d4790b67ac987c783e29db25cea06743a3545">as a backwards step</a>.</p>
<p>It will be worth watching <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/science/trackers/should-britain-start-extracting-shale-gas">polling</a> in the months to come to see if the energy crisis and expected financial incentives for communities lead to <a href="https://www.ukoog.org.uk/about-ukoog/press-releases/251-new-poll-money-off-energy-bills-increases-support-for-shale-as-pensioners-cut-spending-to-cover-energy-costs">an increase in support for fracking</a>. However, there is a real risk that this policy will once again appeal to the views and concerns of a relatively narrow segment of the public.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191393/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laurence Williams currently receives funding from the Leverhulme Trust. The work on which this article is based was funded by NERC and ESRC (grant number NE/R018138/1) </span></em></p>Fracking resonates with anxieties over deindustrialisation and decarbonisation.Laurence Williams, Research Fellow in Environmental Politics, SPRU, University of Sussex Business School, University of SussexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1904212022-09-15T15:31:52Z2022-09-15T15:31:52ZFracking: if Liz Truss wants a major shale gas industry, she is 280 million years late<p>In <a href="https://theconversation.com/britains-electricity-since-2010-wind-surges-to-second-place-coal-collapses-and-fossil-fuel-use-nearly-halves-129346">some respects</a>, the UK has been among the world’s most successful countries at taking action against climate change over the past few decades. Yet that progress could be reversed and thrown away for a few years of slightly cheaper gas for a few people, and a lot of profits for even fewer people.</p>
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<p>That’s because new prime minister Liz Truss has pledged to <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/ban-on-fracking-to-be-lifted-as-part-of-liz-trusss-energy-plan-12692646">overturn a 2019 ban on “fracking”</a> for shale gas in England. It’s true that the transition to low-carbon energy was never going to be easy. But shale gas is methane, a fossil fuel with high carbon emissions, while fracking has already been trialled unsuccessfully in the UK and its re-emergence is not founded on new evidence which can materially change results. This is not an act based on data but on desperation and dogma.</p>
<p>The first problem is there simply isn’t enough gas. For fracking to become a large-scale viable business in the UK, a very large geological resource of shale gas is essential. The enthusiasm for shale gas trials in the UK between 2011 and 2019 was founded on government-commissioned reports from the <a href="https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/media/2782/bgs_decc_bowlandshalegasreport_main_report.pdf">British Geological Survey (BGS)</a>, which predicted that many tens of years worth of gas supply may exist beneath central and northern England, south-east England and central Scotland. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484343/original/file-20220913-3993-qzgn5o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Annoted map of Great Britain" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484343/original/file-20220913-3993-qzgn5o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484343/original/file-20220913-3993-qzgn5o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=975&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484343/original/file-20220913-3993-qzgn5o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=975&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484343/original/file-20220913-3993-qzgn5o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=975&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484343/original/file-20220913-3993-qzgn5o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1225&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484343/original/file-20220913-3993-qzgn5o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1225&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484343/original/file-20220913-3993-qzgn5o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1225&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A map from one of the British Geological Survey’s assessment studies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/media/2782/bgs_decc_bowlandshalegasreport_main_report.pdf">'The Carboniferous Bowland Shale gas study: geology and resource estimation', BGS (2013)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But such reports are explicitly speculative, and always calculate the maximum possible resource. Usually, after more detailed work, the commercially viable reserves are no more than 10% of the original estimate. </p>
<p>In the UK, results from exploratory drilling were mostly bad. The drilling triggered multiple small and several medium <a href="https://theconversation.com/fracking-causes-earthquakes-by-design-can-regulation-keep-up-106183">earthquakes</a>. And to add further insult, rock samples were analysed and found to contain only <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-11653-4">small quantities</a> of extractable gas or oil. </p>
<p>What gas and oil there is, is not at the same extreme underground pressures found in more successful shale fields of the US and Canada. These high pressures are a sign there is lots of easily-extractable fuel. </p>
<p>The idea that the UK has a similar huge potential shale gas resource assumed its shales had not already generated gas – that the potential is still to come. However, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-11653-4">laboratory results</a> show that gas has already been generated in these rocks in the geological past. Over millions of years, Britain’s landmass has been buried, lifted back up, buried again and eroded. This complex geological history has provided many opportunities for gas to leak away through the country’s many faults and cracks so that only the dregs remain. If the UK wants to develop a major US-style fracking industry, it is 280 million years too late. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-we-discovered-uk-shale-gas-reserves-are-at-least-80-smaller-than-thought-122076">How we discovered UK shale gas reserves are at least 80% smaller than thought</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<h2>Widespread scepticism and mistrust</h2>
<p>Even if enough gas is discovered, there is the huge challenge of bringing in specialist equipment and skilled people to do the drilling and development. To produce abundant gas for the country will require thousands of boreholes over ten years. Disposing of huge amounts of salty and radioactive <a href="https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlehtml/2018/ew/c7ew00474e">wastewater</a> represents another really big challenge.</p>
<p>No wonder then that the UK government is wary of stating that the agreement of local residents is needed before fracking can go ahead. Because fracking has had a difficult history in the UK, and was only ever imposed top-down by the David Cameron government, there is widespread <a href="https://theconversation.com/mistrust-and-earthquakes-why-lancashire-communities-are-so-shaken-by-fracking-tremors-108108">scepticism and mistrust</a> among the communities who have been affected by proposed drilling. </p>
<p>Those doubts can perhaps be converted to acceptance by prolonged dialogue, providing better information, and building up trust – but that takes years. Another option proposed by some shale developers would be to make direct cash payments to local residents and communities – up to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/08/fracking-uk-not-fix-fuel-bills-economically-high-risk">6% of initial revenues</a> in some cases. The US shows that sharing the financial spoils can provide quick routes to opinion change. But strong regulation is needed to prevent shale developers from paying a community to support development, then rapidly exiting an area once the gas has been depleted, and abandoning the consequences. A fracked borehole drilled in 2019 near Preston is <a href="https://cuadrillaresources.uk/uk-regulator-withdraws-notice-to-plug-shale-gas-wells-at-preston-new-road-pnr-lancashire-site/">still not plugged</a>. </p>
<p>The UK did have a lot of onshore shale oil and gas, a long time ago. But because the country has the wrong <a href="https://theconversation.com/there-may-be-a-huge-flaw-in-uk-fracking-hopes-the-geology-80591">geological history</a>, that oil and gas has long gone, flowed out along the abundant faults and fractures. American and Canadian geology is much simpler, and that’s why their shale gas is still there. </p>
<p>Solar and wind make cheaper electricity than gas, and methane leaks are measurably warming the world. The International Energy Agency and IPCC both state very clearly that fossil fuel production needs to decrease rapidly. Why would the UK trash its best international reputation and future world-leading clean energy industries? Fracking in the UK has multiple commercial and technical challenges which may or may not be overcome, has an immense public perception legacy to convert, and the environmentally acceptable pathway is very unclear.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190421/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stuart Haszeldine receives research funding from UK research councils EPSRC and NERC, and SGN Scottish Gas Networks. Funding on hydorgen research from Horizon Europe and EPSRC. He serves on the BEIS CCUS Council and voluntariliy advises NECCUS to co-ordinate CCS developments in Scotland </span></em></p>Britain was once sat on huge gas reserves, but most of it leaked away long ago.Stuart Haszeldine, Professor of Geology, The University of EdinburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1619582021-06-24T12:05:06Z2021-06-24T12:05:06ZEnvironmental action: why some young people want an alternative to protests<p>In just three years, calls for climate action have seen the Fridays For Future movement <a href="https://theconversation.com/fridays-for-future-how-the-young-climate-movement-has-grown-since-greta-thunbergs-lone-protest-144781">grow</a> from one girl in one country – Greta Thunberg in Sweden – to <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-will-never-forgive-you-youth-is-not-wasted-on-the-young-who-fight-for-climate-justice-123985">millions of teenagers</a> all over the world. Despite this, a <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5b61f22e5b409b6c07026aa0/t/5fc7cd824bde7d3c2ce020ff/1606929867749/Politics+in+Schools+-+RESEARCH+REPORT_17_11_20.pdf">survey</a> conducted in 2020 found that most young people were unlikely to take part in peaceful marches. Our research looks at why this might be. </p>
<p>We conducted a <a href="https://bera-journals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/berj.3737">qualitative study</a> with 121 young people in areas of England and Northern Ireland where fracking had either been a lived reality or a possibility. We wanted to understand how these teens felt about both the environmental issues local communities were worried about, and the political processes in place to deal with them. </p>
<p>Many of the teenagers we spoke to were disillusioned with the politics. They also felt unsure that protesting would make the kind of difference they hoped for. Instead, they were keen to find other ways to make their voices heard. </p>
<h2>Climate action</h2>
<p>In November 2019, the UK government <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/02/fracking-banned-in-uk-as-government-makes-major-u-turn">announced</a> a moratorium on fracking. In the months that followed, from December 2019 to March 2020, we held focus groups with young people from five schools and colleges near sites in Lancashire, England and County Fermanagh, Northern Ireland, where anti-fracking protests had taken place. We wanted to understand their views on fracking.</p>
<p>In Lancashire, when we spoke to these local teenagers, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/26/latest-fracking-tremor-believed-to-be-uk-biggest-yet-cuadrilla-blackpool">exploratory fracking</a> had ceased just weeks earlier. The oil and gas exploration company Cuadrilla had been drilling at the Preston New Road site, near Blackpool, since 2017. </p>
<p>In County Fermanagh, meanwhile, petroleum prospector Tamboran’s plans to drill at a former quarry site in Belcoo were being <a href="https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/fracking-firm-tamboran-to-sue-stormont-departments-over-thwarted-fermanagh-drilling-plans-30757856.html">considered by the government</a>. The decision had been delayed for years, however, because of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/11/northern-ireland-assembly-reopens-three-years-after-collapse">the collapse</a> of the devolved government at Stormont in 2017.</p>
<p>In both places, the young people we spoke to were unhappy – angry even – with the political process. As one respondent put it: “It’s just frustrating, because you feel like you’ve got all the answers and no one’s listening. The people that are making the decisions about it aren’t going to be directly affected. You feel quite helpless.”</p>
<p>Many of our respondents said they were not convinced by the economic arguments used to justify shale gas extraction, deeming it worse than renewable and nuclear options. They thought it would damage the economy and the community, not to mention the environment. “It’s like everywhere is becoming a sacrifice zone,” one young person said. “There’s a point where it goes too far just to get some gas which can be replaced by more green ways of energy.”</p>
<p>The teenagers we spoke to largely agreed that demonstrating often resulted in <a href="https://www.blackpoolgazette.co.uk/news/anti-fracking-protest-sparks-road-chaos-1101445">negative portrayals of the protest</a>, not the fracking. Crucially, such protests affected the wrong people – local people, rather than the politicians who made decisions about fracking permits and so on. Participants in our focus groups saw protests as the last resort. </p>
<h2>Formal dissent</h2>
<p>Many of our respondents said they preferred more dutiful expressions of dissent. This could be speaking or writing to industry representatives, their local councillors or MPs, or working to get coverage in newspapers and on social media. It could also be taking legal action. </p>
<p>According to the International Bar Association, young people across the world –-from <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/environment/seattles-jamie-margolin-is-17-and-a-climate-activist-on-wednesday-she-testifies-before-congress/">Olympia, Washington</a> to <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-youth-climate-court-case-failed-and-whats-next-for-canadian-climate-policy-149064">Ottawa, Canada</a> –- <a href="https://www.ibanet.org/article/498ceaa6-0448-4ac5-ba37-4e21547f2fbd">are increasingly using</a> the law to force governments to act. </p>
<p>In 2020, in Australia, Youth Verdict (an organisation of young people working in solidarity with First Nation people and the environmental research charity, Bimblebox Alliance) <a href="https://theconversation.com/these-young-queenslanders-are-taking-on-clive-palmers-coal-company-and-making-history-for-human-rights-138732">went to court</a> to prevent a large coal mine in Queensland from being approved. This marked the first time human-rights arguments were used in a climate change case in the country. </p>
<p>In 2021, meanwhile, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-a-landmark-judgment-the-federal-court-found-the-environment-minister-has-a-duty-of-care-to-young-people-161650">class action suit</a> was launched on behalf of all Australian children and teenagers against Australian environment minister Sussan Ley. The claimants asserted that the minister owed them a duty of care not to cause them physical harm, by approving projects (in this instance, the extension of a coal mine) that would result in personal injury from climate change. This too has been a landmark case. </p>
<p>Similarly, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-children-are-taking-european-states-to-court-over-the-climate-crisis-and-changing-the-law-158546">a complaint</a> filed in late 2020 against 33 European countries by Youth Climate Justice at the European Court of Human Rights states that failure to act on climate change constitutes discrimination against children and young adults.</p>
<p>The young people we spoke to suggested that responding to environmental situations they were concerned about, in this way, was preferable to protesting. It could allow them to reach politicians more directly and inform wider audiences beyond the rural communities affected. There was no guarantee though, they said, that it would work. In England in particular, young people felt impotent, noting that such approaches have failed. </p>
<p>Most of the children and young people in our study couldn’t vote. They will, however, be disproportionately affected by decisions taken - or not - today. There has been <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13676260120111788?src=recsys">widespread concern</a> that when young people are finally of voting age, they often don’t. Research has shown <a href="https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/394835/1/__userfiles.soton.ac.uk_Users_nl2_mydesktop_Deposits_One%2520off_The%2520rise%2520of%2520anti-politics%2520in%2520Britain.pdf">a rise in anti-politics</a> in Britain. Our findings suggested a similar lack of trust in government and negative attitudes towards politics. </p>
<p>Our findings also chime with <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13676261.2013.830704">other research</a> that shows young people do ultimately want democracy to function. One way to counter this undermining of trust in democracy and to empower young people to take action, in the kind of dutiful ways they prefer, is to educate them on how to use the law and enable them to do so.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161958/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>We would like to acknowledge and thank Denise Mc Keown for her contribution to the research, particularly during the data collection phase.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lucy Atkinson and Maria Turkenburg-van Diepen do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Teenagers directly affected by fracking have voiced disappointment at the political process. They’re looking for other ways to make their voices heardLynda Dunlop, Senior Lecturer in Science Education, University of YorkLucy Atkinson, Research Fellow in Education, University of YorkMaria Turkenburg-van Diepen, Researcher in Science Education, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1220762019-08-23T14:05:41Z2019-08-23T14:05:41ZHow we discovered UK shale gas reserves are at least 80% smaller than thought<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288935/original/file-20190821-170931-1w8ig2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Maximov Denis / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past decade, the UK has tentatively begun to exploit its reserves of shale gas through a process best known as “fracking”. But according to our new research, UK shale gas reserves are substantially lower than previously thought – in fact, the amount of shale gas available may be just one sixth of the current official estimate. </p>
<p>Back in 2013, a <a href="https://www.ogauthority.co.uk/media/2782/bgs_decc_bowlandshalegasreport_main_report.pdf">UK government study</a> estimated how much gas could be found in Bowland Shale. “A shale” consists of the sort of sedimentary rocks in which oil and gas can be formed – while “shale gas” is the gas formed but not yet released into reservoirs. The Bowland, stretching from Lancashire, across the Pennines and down into the Midlands, is the country’s largest and most economically viable shale. The 2013 study estimated that Bowland shale alone could provide the UK with up to 50 years of gas at current demand. </p>
<p>But it turns out this was a big over-estimate. At the time, scientists didn’t know much about the Bowland shale and didn’t have any published production data to work off. This meant they estimated the size of the reserves based on models that were developed for shales in the US, without taking into account key differences between shale gas in the two countries. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288951/original/file-20190821-170918-a4s8dm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288951/original/file-20190821-170918-a4s8dm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288951/original/file-20190821-170918-a4s8dm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288951/original/file-20190821-170918-a4s8dm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288951/original/file-20190821-170918-a4s8dm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288951/original/file-20190821-170918-a4s8dm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288951/original/file-20190821-170918-a4s8dm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288951/original/file-20190821-170918-a4s8dm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Bowland Shale covers much of northern England.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.bgs.ac.uk/research/energy/shaleGas/bowlandShaleGas.html">British Geological Society</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Further, the estimate was based on how much gas scientists thought the rocks could contain, rather that the actual amount the rocks were able to “generate”. Plus, initial estimates of this gas holding capacity may have been inflated as they overlooked the effect on moisture, which is known to reduce the amount of gas held within the shale.</p>
<p>Our findings, now published in the journal <a href="https://nature.com/articles/s41467-019-11653-4">Nature Communications</a>, are the result of 11 years work developing a way to simulate in a lab the conditions that rocks would be exposed to deep underground, and therefore figure out how much oil or gas these rocks would “generate”. We then applied this method to shale gas, which meant we were able to measure and estimate shale reserves.</p>
<h2>1,300 trillion… down to 200 trillion</h2>
<p>We estimate that the maximum reserves for the Bowland Shale are around 200 standard trillion cubic feet – that’s less than a sixth of the <a href="https://www.ogauthority.co.uk/media/2782/bgs_decc_bowlandshalegasreport_main_report.pdf">2013 estimate</a> of around 1,300 trillion cubic ft. Assuming 10% of the reserves are economically recoverable – a fairly optimistic scenario – this corresponds to no more than ten years’ UK gas supply at current demand.</p>
<p>Any predictive method will inevitably involve a degree of uncertainty, and both our study and the original 2013 report can only report a range of possible values, with the central prediction being the most probable. A truly foolproof way of assessing how much gas is buried below the UK, and how much is economically recoverable, could only come from widespread test drilling.</p>
<p>So for now, more tests will be needed to reduce the degree of uncertainty. However, our findings can inform government decisions around the future of shale gas in the UK, as the country moves towards being carbon neutral by 2050. </p>
<p>Carbon neutrality means natural gas can only be used either to generate electricity when combined with carbon capture and storage, or potentially to produce hydrogen for transport or domestic heating. Given the scale of the roll-out needed for carbon capture, it is likely that UK gas consumption will fall over the next 30 years, therefore extending the life of reserves including both UK shale, and less controversially, conventional gas from the North Sea.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122076/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This research was funded by research council grants (NERC), industry (Statoil and Woodside Energy) and a collaboration between the University of Nottingham and the British Geological Society (The Centre for Environmental Geochemistry).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colin Snape does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research uses a different technique to give a much lower estimate.Will Meredith, Assistant Professor in Fuel Science and Technology, University of NottinghamColin Snape, Director of Engineering Doctorate Centre in Efficient Fossil Energy Technologies , University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1199502019-07-05T12:56:17Z2019-07-05T12:56:17ZNew study shows public wants renewables – but the government is not listening<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282863/original/file-20190705-51297-1iiqkz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jevanto Productions / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Subsidies for onshore wind power were cut by the UK government in 2015. Then the main reasons given were that it was too expensive and that the public didn’t support it. Amber Rudd MP, then head of what was the Department of Energy and Climate Change, said in <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/statement-on-ending-subsidies-for-onshore-wind">a statement to parliament</a>: “We are reaching the limits of what is affordable and what the public is prepared to accept.”</p>
<p>Fast-forward to 2019: onshore wind is the UK’s <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45881551">cheapest form of electricity</a>, and our newly-published <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2019.101226">academic research</a> shows that public support for renewables is high and getting steadily higher. Support for nuclear and fracking on the other hand is low and decreasing.</p>
<p>These trends are demonstrated by the government’s own data: the UK <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/energy-and-climate-change-public-attitudes-tracker-wave-25">Energy and Climate Change Public Attitudes Tracker</a> (PAT). The PAT has been running quarterly since 2012, meaning there is a huge amount of data to show how attitudes have changed over the past seven years. In total, more than 50,000 people have been surveyed, making it the largest and most representative dataset of its kind.</p>
<p>Along with colleagues at the University of Leeds, I analysed the PAT dataset to dig a bit deeper into what it can tell us. As well as looking at how trends in public support have changed over time, we also explored whether trends varied geographically. While the map below shows there is some variation, the overall trends are pretty consistent across Great Britain. (Unfortunately there isn’t enough data for Northern Ireland to ensure confidentiality).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282867/original/file-20190705-51253-8ilp69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282867/original/file-20190705-51253-8ilp69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282867/original/file-20190705-51253-8ilp69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=866&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282867/original/file-20190705-51253-8ilp69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=866&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282867/original/file-20190705-51253-8ilp69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=866&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282867/original/file-20190705-51253-8ilp69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1089&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282867/original/file-20190705-51253-8ilp69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1089&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282867/original/file-20190705-51253-8ilp69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1089&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Solar is the UK’s most popular source of energy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629619300532?dgcid=author">Roddis et al</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So, are energy policymakers listening to the public? The short answer is: no. At present, the UK government is pursuing the energy technologies which receive the lowest levels of public support (nuclear and fracking), while cuts to various subsidy schemes are making it more difficult for popular onshore renewables such as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/18/windfarm-industry-urges-uk-to-lift-onshore-subsidies-ban">wind</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/05/home-solar-panel-installations-fall-by-94-as-subsidies-cut">solar</a> to get built. </p>
<p>One exception is offshore wind – the third most popular technology – which was recently given <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/offshore-wind-energy-revolution-to-provide-a-third-of-all-uk-electricity-by-2030">fresh backing</a> by the government. The survey does not ask about support for fossil fuels such as coal or natural gas, so it’s not possible to directly compare people’s preferences with existing fossil-based energy infrastructure. </p>
<p>However, our study does show that concern for climate change was a particularly important predictor of attitudes. People who worried more about the climate were more supportive of renewables, and people who were less concerned were more supportive of nuclear and fracking. As concern over the climate crisis <a href="https://www.energylivenews.com/2019/05/09/uk-public-more-concerned-than-ever-before-about-climate-change/">continues to grow</a> (a trend also shown by the PAT), it seems likely that renewables will continue to enjoy high public support, while support for nuclear and fracking (as well as other types of fossil fuel) will continue to fall. This is a positive sign for the transition to a low carbon society.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282869/original/file-20190705-51262-g1rjxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282869/original/file-20190705-51262-g1rjxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282869/original/file-20190705-51262-g1rjxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282869/original/file-20190705-51262-g1rjxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282869/original/file-20190705-51262-g1rjxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282869/original/file-20190705-51262-g1rjxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282869/original/file-20190705-51262-g1rjxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282869/original/file-20190705-51262-g1rjxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Renewables are more popular among women and children.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ink Drop / Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>Our results also suggest that some sections of the public may be having a stronger effect on energy policy than others. We found that young people and women were more likely to support renewables, while older people, men and higher social classes were more likely to support nuclear and fracking. It is perhaps not a coincidence that this demographic group has the most similar views to the status quo energy policy, given the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/may/16/uk-energy-companies-fail-to-promote-women-to-executive-roles">lack of diversity in the energy sector</a>. This highlights the need to get more women and people of all social backgrounds into the top energy jobs, so that decisions are more representative of society and its preferences.</p>
<p>The UK government recently put into law the bold ambition to reach <a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-passes-law-to-bring-greenhouse-gas-emissions-to-net-zero-by-2050-a4176931.html">net zero carbon emissions by 2050</a> – the first major economy in the world to do so. This is a fantastic step in the right direction and sets the bar for other countries around the world. But (and there’s always a but), this is only possible if technologies pursued are genuinely low carbon, cost effective (as renewables increasingly are) and have the backing of the public.</p>
<p>Given the introduction of this new net-zero target, it is time for policymakers to rethink the direction of the UK’s energy future, and to listen more carefully to what the public really wants. With average support of 82.5%, solar energy is more popular by far than certain other recent political decisions in the country. As we hear so often from politicians these days, the people have spoken.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1119950">Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn’t.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119950/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pip Roddis receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council via the UK Energy Research Centre's ADVENT project. She also receives funding from the University of Leeds. </span></em></p>Huge survey shows more than 80% of British people support for solar, but just 18% want fracking.Pip Roddis, PhD Researcher, Public Attitudes Towards Energy, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1081082018-12-14T16:30:51Z2018-12-14T16:30:51ZMistrust and earthquakes: why Lancashire communities are so shaken by fracking tremors<p>After a month of tranquillity, fracking has resumed at the Preston New Road site near Blackpool triggering the biggest tremor to date.</p>
<p>There have been 12 tremors over a four-day period, including the biggest so far – the 1.5 magnitude quake. In total, <a href="https://earthquakes.bgs.ac.uk/earthquakes/recent_uk_events.html">36 earthquakes</a> were recorded in the area between the middle of October and early November. Most of these are too weak to be felt at the surface, but can be measured using seismometers. These are instruments that measure ground motions, caused by such events as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, among other factors.</p>
<p>Local residents are concerned the earthquakes may cause cracks in the fracking well’s casing, which could potentially lead to contamination issues. Some scientists claim the impact of these seismic events at surface is equivalent to <a href="http://datacat.liverpool.ac.uk/609/2/Seismic%20Context%20Measurements.pdf">dropping a melon</a> onto the floor. But government officials and those in the fracking industry have dismissed the tremors – suggesting they are <a href="https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Y45hYC9gSBYJ:https://www.kevinhollinrake.org.uk/letter-shale-gas-commissioner-natascha-engel-newspaper-editors%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR0eclEJQmvrjNzEK1xTgK2z6AYIsnuazRxDCEA5E_UoeMuxpDhNqatI1J8+&cd=1&hl=pl&ct=clnk&gl=uk&client=firefox-b-ab">inconsequential</a>.</p>
<p>As a social scientist living in Lancashire, I have been researching the social impacts of shale gas developments since 2015. From what I have seen, there is much more to the tremors than just ground movements. The impact of the quakes that occurred far below ground reverberated strongly throughout the community living on the surface. To understand why this is the case it is important to understand local people’s experiences of shale gas exploration in the UK.</p>
<h2>Fracking on shaky ground</h2>
<p>The same operator, Cuadrilla, was fracking for shale gas in the area <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/48330/5055-preese-hall-shale-gas-fracturing-review-and-recomm.pdf">seven years ago</a>. Two bigger and around 50 smaller earthquakes occurred <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/green-living/exclusive-fracking-company-we-caused-50-tremors-in-blackpool-but-were-not-going-to-stop-6256397.html">over an eight-month period</a> as a result of injecting fluid into a geological fault zone. </p>
<p>In 2018 – and under <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/traffic-light-monitoring-system-shale-gas-and-fracking">new seismicity controls</a> – Cuadrilla was required to halt its fracking operations twice when the monitoring equipment detected tremors bigger than 0.5 local magnitude. The system was introduced to set “gold standard” regulations for this new industry. After the quakes, Cuadrilla’s CEO <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/cb36ad4e-dc5e-11e8-9f04-38d397e6661c">warned</a> that making fracking commercially viable would be extremely challenging under the existing seismic monitoring system in the UK. He wanted the government to reconsider its position on seismic monitoring within weeks. </p>
<p>Weeks passed by, the activity at the site was subdued for a month and no further seismic events were recorded until December 10 2018. Cuadrilla did not publicly confirm it had suspended hydraulic fracturing between early November and December. But it did say it was planning to engage with the regulators to <a href="http://www.aspecthuntley.com.au/asxdata/20181129/pdf/02054010.pdf">change the upper limit</a> on seismic monitoring.</p>
<h2>On high alert</h2>
<p>In the Blackpool area, earthquakes have been on everyone’s radar. Many local residents refresh the British Geological Survey website that records all recent earthquakes in the country almost hourly. At the observation point at Preston New Road known as the “gate camp”, protesters watch and listen carefully for the signs of fracking activity, proudly asserting: “This is the most watched site in the UK.”</p>
<p>The reason they are watching so carefully is because they have serious concerns about how regulatory monitoring and corporate transparency works. Take the seismic monitoring system which was originally designed to reassure communities they would be protected from harm. After Cuadrilla’s recent announcements, the prospect of relaxing the seismic controls seems real.</p>
<p>For local communities, new seismic thresholds would not be just numbers, but a sign that politicians are willing to further extend the industry’s authority over society. Relaxing regulations because they make business more difficult is a narrowly economic rationale – there’s certainly nothing democratic about it. This is the palpable sense of injustice you get when you talk to people at the side of Preston New Road. </p>
<h2>Environment of mistrust</h2>
<p>In my experience, the regular liaison meetings with the company and regulators do little to reassure the local communities. Instead, they have made residents dissociate transparency from openness. In their view, the liaison meetings, consultations and the lengthy planning process have become a field of corporate practice. They limit residents’ ability to determine their common future – but the process provides the industry with a veneer of democratic legitimacy. </p>
<p>What this generates for local residents are <a href="https://annaszolucha.wordpress.com/research/repower-democracy/report/">feelings of disenfranchisement</a> and distrust – and a sense of social injustice. This is why the impact of the earthquakes can’t be separated from the social reality on the surface.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/250097/original/file-20181211-76974-1t3682s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/250097/original/file-20181211-76974-1t3682s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/250097/original/file-20181211-76974-1t3682s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/250097/original/file-20181211-76974-1t3682s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/250097/original/file-20181211-76974-1t3682s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/250097/original/file-20181211-76974-1t3682s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/250097/original/file-20181211-76974-1t3682s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Fence art at the Preston New Road site in Lancashire.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Anna Szolucha</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For local communities, there is an implicit analogy between the fracking pad with its well bore that extends kilometres out of sight and underground and the non-transparent ways in which the UK government and the industry are perceived to impose hydraulic fracturing on local populations. </p>
<p>Residents worry that the same attitude that the government and industry espouse on the surface, would also govern the way they tackle potential problems that arise underground – as a result of fracking.</p>
<p>Of course, it is true that any new industry – such as shale gas exploration – is bound to face hurdles as it tries to identify suitable operational procedures. But to understand why communities in Lancashire have found it so difficult to trust government agencies and industry, it’s important to consider how seismic events operate in the reality of social, rather than merely geological, environments.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/108108/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Szolucha receives funding from Natural Environment Research Council and Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p>A researcher looking at the social impacts of shale gas developments, explains why there’s much more to the Blackpool tremors than just ground movements.Anna Szolucha, Research fellow, Northumbria University, NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.