tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/hurricanes-2017-43134/articlesHurricanes 2017 – The Conversation2019-09-12T11:06:57Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1234012019-09-12T11:06:57Z2019-09-12T11:06:57ZHotels play vital roles in relief efforts when disaster such as the Maui wildfires strikes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542230/original/file-20230810-16-6db21d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=129%2C105%2C5262%2C3484&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lahaina, Hawaii, was a wasteland of burned-out homes and obliterated communities after wildfires ripped through the town.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXHawaiiFires/9d084f2d3a504d8f97b0d1cf6d3f8809/photo?Query=maui%20wildfire&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=35&currentItemNo=11">AP Photo/Rick Bowmer</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Hotels are more than a place to stay while on vacation. They are also critical for disaster relief and recovery. </p>
<p>When major hurricanes, wildfires or other disasters strike, relief <a href="https://www.fema.gov/es/news-release/20200220/fema-federal-agencies-ready-hurricane-dorian-heads-florida">organizations like Federal Emergency Management Agency</a> and the <a href="https://www.redcross.org/about-us/news-and-events/news/2019/red-cross-commits-initial-2m-to-help-bahamas-helps-evacuees-coming-to-us.html">Red Cross</a> are usually seen at the heart of the disaster response. Less publicized are the essential roles hotels play in aiding and supporting the efforts of first responders and residents. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://theconversation.com/maui-wildfires-extra-logistical-challenges-hinder-governments-initial-response-when-disasters-strike-islands-211384">wildfires rage on the island</a> of Maui, Hawaii, hotels hooked up to diesel generators <a href="https://lodgingmagazine.com/ahla-partners-with-hawaii-hotel-alliance-to-support-relief-efforts-in-west-maui/">are doing their best to support the needs</a> of not only their guests and employees but other residents of the community as well.</p>
<p>To better understand their role in relief efforts, my colleagues <a href="https://www.rit.edu/gis/academics/faculty/schneider">Jennifer L. Schneider</a>, <a href="https://www.rit.edu/directory/mxkism-muhammet-kesgin">Muhammet Kesgin</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=gNiId2AAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Sarah Dobie</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=o_ZBzNIAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">and I</a> interviewed over 40 hotel general managers in Florida in 2017 and collected online survey data on 156 more to study what they did during and after Hurricane Irma struck that year. </p>
<p>We were impressed by the range of roles hotels said they take on in a disaster, whether a massive storm in Florida or a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/08/10/us/wildfires-maui-hawaii">wildfire in Maui</a>. </p>
<h2>Preparing for the storm</h2>
<p>Hotels located in the vicinity of a disaster are in a unique position to help, because unlike other first responders, they are already physically there with large and fortified buildings. </p>
<p>Our interviews in Florida showed that hotels take steps every year to mitigate the impact of hurricane season. This annual preparedness involves continued education, planning and sharing of best practices through local hotel associations, such as the <a href="https://frla.org/hurricane-resources/">Florida Restaurant and Lodging Association</a> and <a href="https://www.keyslodging.org/hurricane-conference.htm">Lodging Association of the Florida Keys and Key West</a>. </p>
<p>“There is no way FEMA could set up temporary housing as fast as hotels in providing immediate places for people to stay in impacted areas,” one general manager told us. </p>
<p>Hotels mitigate the potential of being closed by signing advance contracts for diesel fuel to run generators in case electricity is lost. They also line up contractors ahead of time to repair any damage that might occur. </p>
<p>One manager even reported taking out US$5,000 in cash to make sure she was able to buy groceries for local residents in need, since the lack of electricity was forcing stores to accept cash only.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="an aerial view shows a patch of houses and busineses destroyed next to others that weren't damaged near the water" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292113/original/file-20190912-190031-3qcxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292113/original/file-20190912-190031-3qcxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292113/original/file-20190912-190031-3qcxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292113/original/file-20190912-190031-3qcxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292113/original/file-20190912-190031-3qcxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292113/original/file-20190912-190031-3qcxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292113/original/file-20190912-190031-3qcxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hurricane Irma was a Category 4 storm when it crossed the Florida Keys in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/two-more-hurricane-irma-pix/bc989567ebb24b6abd84952a74c9fcb5/2/0">AP Photo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Offering shelter and aiding recovery</h2>
<p>During Hurricane Irma, residents and visitors were forced to evacuate certain parts of the state and sought shelter from the storm wherever they could, including at hotels, some of which <a href="https://www.hotel-online.com/press_releases/release/florida-cre-proves-resilient-in-face-of-hurricane-irma-due-to-long-term-pre/">are resilient to Category 5 hurricanes</a>. </p>
<p>How much a hotel can help with disaster response can depend on how severely its own infrastructure is damaged. But even when there is damage and no electricity, hoteliers reported that lodging was the key resource they were able to provide victims of Irma, whether they were local residents who fled homes or insurance adjusters and response teams trying to get things back up and running. </p>
<p>Managers told us they offered discounted room rates for people trying to get out of the way of the oncoming storm and waived their usual pet policies to help those fleeing the hurricane with animals. </p>
<p>Some managers said their hotels transformed from four-star resorts to simple shelters where first responders or power repair workers could find a safe and free place to sleep. One manager reported setting up dozens of cots in a ballroom for a National Guard command post.</p>
<p>Hotel employees who felt unsafe in their homes were allowed to ride out the storm with their families for free. And in some cases, they provided housing for months after the storm. </p>
<p>Beyond lodging, in some cases hotels sent out engineers to inspect employee homes to determine whether they were habitable while they waited for official inspections.</p>
<p>Beyond the humanitarian value of providing assistance, separate research I helped conduct also found that hotels that provide relief <a href="http://www.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm.2022.103360">may produce goodwill</a> through the shared vulnerability that employees and customers experience. When customers receive assistance during periods of vulnerability and recognize that employees are facing similar challenges, they become advocates for public support of the business, its workers and the broader industry and destination impacted by the disaster.</p>
<p>Whether in Florida or Maui, hotels serve as <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/infrastructures3040046">critical hubs for disaster relief and recovery</a>. As such, policymakers should be aware of their dual role as both private sector businesses and community resources.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article originally published on Sept. 12, 2019.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123401/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rick Lagiewski received funding from the American Hotel and Lodging Educational Foundation (AHLEF) for this study. </span></em></p>Hotels are helping the Hawaiian island of Maui recover from the catastrophic impact of wildfires, just as they have in Florida following hurricanes.Rick Lagiewski, Principal Lecturer – Management, Rochester Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1229102019-09-03T18:04:07Z2019-09-03T18:04:07ZDamage estimates for hurricanes like Dorian don’t capture the full cost of climate change-fueled disasters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290760/original/file-20190903-175691-osz1nv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cars sit submerged in water from Hurricane Dorian in Freeport, Bahamas.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Bahamas-Tropical-Weather/c33e35acc57449a5b6a701b73564bf7c/3/0">AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/03092019/hurricane-dorian-climate-change-stall-record-wind-speed-rainfall-intensity-global-warming-bahamas">Scientists say climate change</a> is causing powerful hurricanes like Dorian to increasingly stall over coastal areas, which leads to heavy flooding. Officials in the Bahamas <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/damage-bahamas-will-be-unprecedented-storm-unleashes-massive-flooding-n1048856">feared “unprecedented” devastation</a> after Dorian hovered over the islands for two days, pummeling it with rain. </p>
<p>But beyond more intense and slow-moving hurricanes, the warming climate <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/opinion-climate-change-deaths_us_5c101e14e4b0ac5371799b1c">has been blamed</a> for <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28663496">causing a sharp uptick</a> in all types of extreme weather events across the country, from <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/07/climate-change-500-percent-increase-california-wildfires/594016/">explosive wildfires in California</a> to <a href="https://earther.gizmodo.com/this-springs-flooding-crisis-is-part-of-a-bigger-patter-1835092237">severe flooding across the U.S.</a> and <a href="https://www.climate.gov/USdrought2018">extensive drought</a> in the Southwest.</p>
<p>Late last year, the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/23/health/climate-change-report-bn/index.html">media blared</a> that these and other consequences of climate change <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/11/24/18109883/climate-report-2018-national-assessment">could cut U.S. GDP</a> by 10% by the end of the century – “more than double the losses of the Great Depression,” as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/23/climate/us-climate-report.html">The New York Times intoned</a>. That figure was drawn from a single figure in the U.S. government’s <a href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov">Fourth National Climate Assessment</a>. (Disclosure: I reviewed that report and was the vice chair on the third one, released in 2014.)</p>
<p>If that sounds scary, I have good news and bad news. The good news is that that figure was drawn incorrectly from a significant misreading of the report – which actually offered a range of a loss of GDP from as low as 6% to as high as 14% by 2090.</p>
<p>The bad news, however, is that a more meaningful assessment of the costs of climate change – using basic economic principles <a href="https://gyohe.faculty.wesleyan.edu">I teach to undergrads</a> – is a hell of a lot scarier.</p>
<h2>Tallying the costs</h2>
<p>First, let’s look at how government agencies, insurance companies and the media calculate and report on the economic costs of disasters. </p>
<p>According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in 2018 Hurricanes Michael and Florence each caused about US$25 billion in damages, <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/2018-was-4th-hottest-year-on-record-for-globe">contributing to a total toll of $91 billion</a> from that year’s weather and climate disasters. In 2017, the NOAA’s total was even bigger: $306 billion, <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/2017-us-billion-dollar-weather-and-climate-disasters-historic-year">due to the massive destruction</a> from Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria. </p>
<p>But these tallies are not really valid measures of economic damage. Instead, they simply reflect estimates of what people think will need to be invested to rebuild what was damaged or destroyed in the storms, floods or fires.</p>
<p>To really understand the economic costs of an extreme weather event, it’s important to consider all the investment that is being “crowded out” or lost to cover those rebuilding costs. Put another way, there’s only so much money to go around. And that $25 billion being used to rebuild means $25 billion is not being used for other public and private investment opportunities that are more forward-looking or more likely to promote growth.</p>
<h2>Accounting for growth</h2>
<p>Instead, I believe a fundamentally more sound way to do this is to use something called “growth accounting.”</p>
<p><a href="https://economics.mit.edu/files/7183">Growth accounting</a> incorporates the productive use of capital and innovation into the equation. The question we want to ask is what happens to GDP growth when recovery efforts from extreme events crowd out productive investments, like building new factories or roads and bridges.</p>
<p>Returning to NOAA’s estimated losses for 2017 and 2018, productive investment fell about $400 billion in total in those years as a result. That is, had those disasters not happened, investment would have been that much higher. And that diminished investment translates into less growth in gross domestic product – a measure of all an economy produces in a given period.</p>
<p>If similar experiences in extreme events occur for the next 10 years – which is not a bad assumption given that four of the most expensive years in history <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-201812">have occurred in the last five</a> – U.S. GDP in 2029 would be about 3.6% lower than it would have been otherwise, based on my calculations using growth accounting. </p>
<p>That amounts to an economy that’s $1 trillion poorer as result of these extreme weather events crowding out productive investment.</p>
<p>This is the real cost of a world in which these types of massively destructive disasters happen more frequently. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290753/original/file-20190903-175686-l8vwid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290753/original/file-20190903-175686-l8vwid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290753/original/file-20190903-175686-l8vwid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290753/original/file-20190903-175686-l8vwid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290753/original/file-20190903-175686-l8vwid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290753/original/file-20190903-175686-l8vwid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290753/original/file-20190903-175686-l8vwid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Climate change costs may be unfathomable by the end of the century.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Polar-Bear-Weight-Loss/c6edeba474164dc893b00c0263f13264/29/0">AP Images/Brian Battaile</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Sooner and scarier</h2>
<p>Returning to our 10% figure, 3.6% is comparatively smaller, of course, but it’s much sooner, which makes it much scarier. </p>
<p>Why?</p>
<p>Because the number of extreme events and their destructive power keeps <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/state-of-climate-2018-shows-accelerating-climate-change-impacts">increasing at an accelerating rate</a>. If we can expect to take a $1 trillion hit over just the next decade, the costs by the end of the century are hardly fathomable.</p>
<p>So while I may disagree with the numbers The New York Times and others use in tallying disasters, they are right to try to spur readers to action. </p>
<p>The situation is just a lot more dire then anyone realizes. With any luck, the size of the figure will frighten us to do more to stave off the worst. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/drafts/108315/edit">article originally published</a> on May 31, 2019.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122910/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gary W. Yohe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The usual way we calculate the economic damage of natural disasters underestimates their true toll – which is key to understanding the costs of climate change.Gary W. Yohe, Huffington Foundation Professor of Economics and Environmental Studies, Wesleyan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/991782018-08-23T10:45:21Z2018-08-23T10:45:21ZA year after Hurricane Harvey, some Texans are using outdated flood risk maps to rebuild<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232974/original/file-20180822-149496-16vdha9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Businesses in Humble, Texas, part of metropolitan Houston, surrounded by floodwater from Hurricane Harvey, August 29, 2017.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Harvey-Houston-Economic-Impact/8663935e0cd64c2dab06d89f86199693/581/0">AP Photo/David J. Phillip, File</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One year ago, on August 25, 2017, Hurricane Harvey struck Texas – the first major hurricane to make landfall in the United States since <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Harvey">Wilma in 2005</a>. Harvey dumped record-breaking <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-made-the-rain-in-hurricane-harvey-so-extreme-83137">rain</a> and flooded hundreds of thousands of homes in and around Houston. It caused some <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092017_Harvey.pdf">US$125 billion in damages</a>, making it one of the costliest natural disasters in U.S. history. </p>
<p>But human choices played a role. Before Harvey, Houston was widely known as a model of <a href="https://qz.com/1064364/hurricane-harvey-houstons-flooding-made-worse-by-unchecked-urban-development-and-wetland-destruction/">unchecked urban development</a>. With <a href="https://kinder.rice.edu/2015/09/08/forget-what-youve-heard-houston-really-does-have-zoning-sort-of">no formal zoning or comprehensive plan</a>, developers were allowed to turn virtually any land, including wetlands, into houses and shopping malls. The <a href="https://www.fema.gov/national-flood-insurance-program">National Flood Insurance Program</a>, administered by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), unintentionally encouraged intense development by offering <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-flood-insurance-works-6-questions-answered-83187">coverage in flood-prone areas at below-cost rates</a>.</p>
<p>Harvey’s impacts in Houston provide an ideal case study for unsustainable human-environment interaction. After last year’s flooding, it would be logical to expect affected communities to rethink long-term hazard management and risk reduction. </p>
<p>In fact, I see the opposite happening. In just one example, officials in the city of Friendswood (part of greater Houston) are allowing some residents to rebuild their homes based on <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/After-Harvey-s-floods-Houston-area-city-will-12540769.php">outdated flood risk maps</a> that greatly underestimate the risk of future floods. This avoids requirements such as elevating houses and buying flood insurance. I believe choosing to rely on faulty information, driven by short-term financial concerns, will increase long-term risks for many Houstonians. </p>
<h2>The message of FEMA flood maps</h2>
<p>Much discussion about the troubled National Flood Insurance Program has centered on its <a href="https://www.gao.gov/highrisk/national_flood_insurance/why_did_study">artificially low premiums</a>. FEMA’s flood risk maps receive less attention, but are a powerful risk communication tool. </p>
<p>FEMA produces these maps for more than 20,000 communities that participate in the insurance program. They <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1516468489259-8eb4bfef27ab35159b2f140a2926e809/What_Goes_Into_a_Flood_Map.pdf">determine insurance rates, inform local regulations and communicate risks to communities</a> </p>
<p>On the maps, Special Flood Hazard Areas identify zones with a one percent chance of flooding in any given year. Since this translates to 100 percent odds of flooding at least once in a century, these areas often are referred to as 100-year flood zones (creating the <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-time-to-ditch-the-concept-of-100-year-floods/">misleading impression</a> that they will only flood once a century). Homeowners there must buy flood insurance in order to qualify for federally regulated or guaranteed loans.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232984/original/file-20180822-149475-t4dx2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232984/original/file-20180822-149475-t4dx2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232984/original/file-20180822-149475-t4dx2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232984/original/file-20180822-149475-t4dx2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232984/original/file-20180822-149475-t4dx2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232984/original/file-20180822-149475-t4dx2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232984/original/file-20180822-149475-t4dx2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232984/original/file-20180822-149475-t4dx2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flood risk map for Multnomah County, Oregon, based on FEMA hazard assessment.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.oregonriskmap.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=featured&Itemid=139">Oregon DCLD</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Using surveys and geographic data, I have shown that flood maps significantly affect <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2016.11.021">voluntary decisions to purchase flood insurance</a>. Working with other social scientists and engineers, I found that people who live in communities with a large percentage of 100-year flood zones are more likely to buy flood insurance, even when they are not required to do so. </p>
<p>How do these maps convey risk? Using websites such as <a href="https://www.floodsmart.gov/">Floodsmart.gov</a>, users can view the flood maps and see threats to their properties and surrounding areas. FEMA also works with local governments to educate residents about flood risks. A civil engineer who worked for the city of Huntsville, Alabama told me that he used the maps to point out relative risks to homeowners:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“I’ll say, ‘Do you have flood insurance? You don’t have to – your house isn’t in [a 100-year flood zone] – but you do have one-percent annual chance floodplain on the back of your property. It’s close to where you are, so you have more risk of flooding than somebody further away.’” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>When homeowners elevate or flood-proof their homes or purchase flood insurance, they may also <a href="http://resolver.ebscohost.com/openurl?sid=google&auinit=P&aulast=Bubeck&atitle=Detailed+insights+into+the+influence+of+flood-coping+appraisals+on+mitigation+behaviour&id=doi%3a10.1016%2fj.gloenvcha.2013.05.009&title=Global+Environmental+Change%3a+Human+and+Policy+Dimensions&volume=23&issue=5&date=2013&spage=1327&site=ftf-live">influence neighbors to take similar steps</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/laeLaNcYVEQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Some Houstonians who are not required to elevate their homes are choosing to do so.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Undercutting FEMA’s message</h2>
<p>FEMA’s maps can be a double-edged sword. If they are inaccurate, they may mislead users. </p>
<p>And the maps have widely-recognized flaws. They do a poor job of <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-fema-faulty-flood-maps/">accounting for changing conditions</a>. For instance, FEMA often assigns low flood risk to locations that are near coasts but slightly elevated, due to <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11069-015-1937-x">insufficient wave modeling to account for storm surge risk</a>. This can give residents in those zones a false sense of security. And the maps do not analyze how risks vary within flood zones, or between <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12068">coastal and inland locations.</a>. </p>
<p>FEMA is required to assess whether the maps need updating maps every five years. But a recent Congressional Budget Office report found that two-thirds of counties with high flood-related claims <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/system/files?file=115th-congress-2017-2018/reports/53028-supplementalmaterial.pdf">had maps that were more than five years old</a>. The update process is time-consuming, with a <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/R45099.pdf">lengthy statutory consultation and appeals process</a>. </p>
<p>Even if communities have more recent data, FEMA <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/After-Harvey-s-floods-Houston-area-city-will-12540769.php">will not publish a partial update</a>. This explains why Friendswood – which has an updated flood map for some land within its limits, created after Tropical Storm Allison in 2007 – can revert to a 20-year-old FEMA map to guide post-Harvey rebuilding.</p>
<h2>Downplaying risks</h2>
<p>Friendswood is just one example of Houston officials downplaying flood risks. FEMA maps are developed and updated in partnership with communities; in recent years the agency has allowed Houston developers to revise local flood maps through steps such as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/02/us/houston-flood-zone-hurricane-harvey.html">dumping tons of fill to raise neighborhoods above the flood plain</a> – sometimes just by inches. </p>
<p>Today, a developer in Friendswood is planning to build a shopping center in the Clear Creek floodway – the zone around the creek where most of the water flows – <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/article/After-Hurricane-Harvey-Friendswood-residents-12959848.php">on top of trucked-in dirt</a>. In the past decade, some 1,400 structures have been <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/What-s-in-a-floodway-In-Houston-20-000-12409821.php?utm_campaign=twitter-premium&utm_source=CMS%2520Sharing%2520Button&utm_medium=social">permitted in and around Houston in floodways</a>.</p>
<p>A pro-building, pro-expansion mentality still permeates the city. Despite <a href="https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/city-of-houston/2018/04/30/282321/turner-and-council-members-emphasize-subdivision-facing-opposition-meets-all-requirements-some-disagree/">opposition from some residents and local media</a>, Houston’s City Council unanimously approved a plan in April 2018 to <a href="https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/City-Council-unanimously-backs-plan-to-build-12863712.php">build 900 homes in a west Houston flood plain</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232988/original/file-20180822-149496-q88lg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232988/original/file-20180822-149496-q88lg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232988/original/file-20180822-149496-q88lg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232988/original/file-20180822-149496-q88lg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232988/original/file-20180822-149496-q88lg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232988/original/file-20180822-149496-q88lg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232988/original/file-20180822-149496-q88lg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232988/original/file-20180822-149496-q88lg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A floodway is land along a creek, stream or river that conveys most of the water, so flow is deepest, fastest and most dangerous.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.bouldercounty.org/transportation/floodplain-mapping/frequently-asked-questions/">Boulder County, Colorado</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Houston is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather-houston-housing-feature/houston-still-rebuilding-from-2017-floods-as-new-hurricane-season-arrives-idUSKCN1IX48C">taking some steps to reduce flood risks</a>, such as buying out houses that have routinely flooded and requiring other owners to elevate their homes. Nonetheless, these pro-development examples are troubling. </p>
<p>According to one recent study, the extreme amounts of rain that fell on Houston during Harvey <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000825">resulted from unprecedented ocean heat content</a>. In other words, it was exacerbated by human-induced climate change. In a climate where temperatures are projected to increase in the future, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1716222114">hurricane-induced coastal flooding will be more frequent and intense</a>. </p>
<p>My recent research shows that even with their flaws, FEMA flood maps influence decisions to purchase flood insurance and overall support for flood mitigation. Policy makers need to seriously consider how to accurately communicate increasing flood risks to the public. Reverting to old flood maps and granting variances to promote development is a recipe for more disasters down the road.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99178/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wanyun Shao receives funding from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Gulf Research Program.</span></em></p>Hurricane Harvey swamped much of Houston in 2017, causing more damage than all other US hurricanes except Katrina. But now the city is authorizing construction in zones at high risk for flooding.Wanyun Shao, Assistant Professor of Geography, University of AlabamaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/975942018-06-01T10:42:03Z2018-06-01T10:42:03ZUnderstanding hurricane risks: 5 essential reads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221256/original/file-20180531-69490-1dzqcul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hurricane Irma passes Cuba and approaches southern Florida on Sunday, Sept. 10, 2017, with Hurricane Jose at lower right.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Irma#/media/File:Hurricane_Irma_and_Jose_(36429922693).jpg">NASA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>June 1 marks the start of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, with some communities <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/29/houston-hurricane-harvey-fema-597912">still rebuilding</a> after last year’s largest storms. </p>
<p>The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting a 75 percent chance that this year’s hurricane season will be <a href="http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/forecasters-predict-near-or-above-normal-2018-atlantic-hurricane-season">near or above normal</a>. That translates to 10 to 16 named storms, with winds at or above 39 miles per hour. Of these, five to nine could become hurricanes, with winds at or above 74 miles per hour, including one to four hurricanes that reach category 3, 4 or 5, with winds of 111 miles per hour or higher.</p>
<p>Five stories from the past year offer insight into the complexities of preparing for and recovering from major hurricanes.</p>
<h2>1. Flooding is a risk near coasts and inland</h2>
<p>Flooding is the most serious risk during hurricanes and other major storms. In coastal areas, high tides and storm surge are factors in flooding risks. But when Louisiana State University geographer Nina Lam studied development patterns in the United States, she found that development was declining in most coastal flood zones, but was <a href="https://theconversation.com/americans-who-live-far-from-coasts-should-also-be-worried-about-flooding-81012">increasing in flood zones inland</a>.</p>
<p>Why the divergence? Lam suspects that people who experience flooding in coastal areas may move inland, but not realize that they are still vulnerable if they settle in inland flood zones. She calls for more education and communication about flood risks in inland communities, as well as support for affordable housing located away from flood zones.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xZ0Q-1u40lA?wmode=transparent&start=2" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">While any hurricane can threaten lives and cause damage with storm surges, floods, and extreme winds, a rapidly intensifying hurricane – like Harvey, Irma and Maria in 2017 – can greatly increase these risks while giving populations limited time to prepare and evacuate.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. When sea level rise speeds up</h2>
<p>In another study, scientists at the University of Florida showed that converging natural variations in Earth’s climate patterns have repeatedly created “<a href="https://theconversation.com/an-x-factor-in-coastal-flooding-natural-climate-patterns-create-hot-spots-of-rapid-sea-level-rise-82628">hot spots” for sea level rise</a> along the Eastern Seaboard over the past century. When these zones form, sea levels can rise up to six times faster than the global average for one to several years. </p>
<p>“These hot spots amplify the severity of coastal flooding that is already occurring from storms and king tides,” civil engineer Arnoldo Valle-Levinson and geologist Andrea Dutton write. “Residents between Charleston, South Carolina and Jacksonville, Florida – a stretch where sea levels are at least 4 inches (10 centimeters) higher now then they were in 2010 – have found this out the hard way.” They also see signs that this pattern is occurring along the Louisiana and Texas Gulf coasts.</p>
<h2>3. People with lower incomes suffer most</h2>
<p>Even in well-prepared communities, some residents have far more resources than others to weather storms and rebuild afterward. </p>
<p>Historian Chris Sellers, who studies equality and social justice at New York’s Stony Brook University, analyzed damage across Long island from Superstorm Sandy in 2012 and found that <a href="https://theconversation.com/storms-hit-poorer-people-harder-from-superstorm-sandy-to-hurricane-maria-87658">low-income and minority communities suffered more damage</a> than their affluent neighbors. Well-off residents typically lived on higher ground, and their neighborhoods were zoned less densely, which enabled them to soak up floodwaters.</p>
<p>Similarly, many lower-income residents could not afford to buy flood insurance on their homes or pay out of pocket to rebuild afterward. Federal and state aid helped, but came so slowly that five years after Sandy, one-third of homeowners who qualified for state rehabilitation money were still restoring their homes. </p>
<p>“Now more than ever, we need a nationwide conversation on ways our coastal landscapes have developed so that our most vulnerable citizens are now at greater risk from such massive storms,” Sellers states.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221246/original/file-20180531-69514-1i8sdfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221246/original/file-20180531-69514-1i8sdfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221246/original/file-20180531-69514-1i8sdfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221246/original/file-20180531-69514-1i8sdfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221246/original/file-20180531-69514-1i8sdfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221246/original/file-20180531-69514-1i8sdfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221246/original/file-20180531-69514-1i8sdfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221246/original/file-20180531-69514-1i8sdfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Construction workers excavate and widen Brays Bayou as part of a nearly $500 million flood control project Thursday, March 22, 2018, in Houston.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Harvey-Flood-Mitigation-Projects/e2f417aa10524dfba20a487dcb8bd8ad/8/0">AP Photo/David J. Phillip</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. Older adults may need special help afterward</h2>
<p>Disaster response operations after major storms typically last days to weeks. But Sue Ann Bell, a clinical associate professor of nursing at the University of Michigan who has worked in these efforts, warns that <a href="https://theconversation.com/disasters-can-harm-older-adults-long-after-storms-have-passed-81429">impacts on the elderly can be long-lasting</a>. </p>
<p>“Age alone does not make people more vulnerable to disasters, but many health issues that are common with aging do, including frailness, memory impairment, limited mobility and chronic illness,” Bell writes. </p>
<p>In a study that analyzed a 2011 tornado outbreak in the southeastern United States, Bell found that hospital admissions among older adults who lived in a ZIP code with a tornado touchdown increased over the 30 days after the disaster by 4 percent – a rise that translated to hundreds of additional hospital admissions. </p>
<p>“The aging U.S. population has a rising incidence of chronic diseases requiring consistent health care, such as diabetes, hypertension and obesity. If these health needs were being met in the tornado zone after the disaster, these patients may not have had to be hospitalized,” Bell observes. </p>
<h2>5. Protecting natural barriers pays off</h2>
<p>Coastal experts have long understood that wetlands play valuable roles slowing storm surges and soaking up floodwaters. In a study funded by Lloyds’ of London and using insurance industry storm surge models, coastal engineer Siddharth Narayan and marine scientist Michael Beck of the University of California, Santa Cruz sought to calculate the value of this natural service. </p>
<p>By analyzing flooding along the Atlantic coast during Superstorm Sandy, and then modeling how much more severe these impacts would have been without any coastal wetlands to buffer them, they estimated that existing wetlands had prevented more than US$625 million in direct property damages during this single storm. On average, from Maine to North Carolina, they estimated that wetlands and marshes reduced damage by 11 percent.</p>
<p>“Protecting coastal ecosystems is not a full remedy for coastal risks, but it should be part of a portfolio of solutions, from elevating buildings to strengthening levees to flood proofing,” Narayan and Beck conclude. “Beyond hurricane season, coastal communities face a crucial question: whether they can rebuild in ways that make them better-prepared for the next storm while also conserving their natural resources. Our work shows that the answer is yes.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/97594/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
The 2018 hurricane season starts on June 1, with some communities still recovering from 2017 storms. Scholars offer insights about where the risks lie and who is most vulnerable during and after hurricanes.Jennifer Weeks, Senior Environment + Cities Editor, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/906092018-03-30T10:52:56Z2018-03-30T10:52:56ZHow Texas is ‘building back better’ from Hurricane Harvey<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205609/original/file-20180208-180826-1i4xwoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hurricane Harvey flooded one-third of Houston and displaced more then 30,000 people in the region.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Janelle Rios</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For most Americans, the one-two punch of last fall’s hurricanes is ancient history. But hard-hit communities in Texas, Florida and the Caribbean are still rebuilding.</p>
<p>I recently traveled with public health students from the University of Washington to southeast Texas, where the impacts of Hurricane Harvey last August are still felt today. With support from the <a href="https://hazards.colorado.edu/research/quick-response">Natural Hazards Center’s Quick Response Grant Program</a>, we wanted to understand how disaster recovery strategies can create long-term opportunities to promote healthy communities. </p>
<p>Through interviews with local health officials, we learned how Hurricane Harvey is still affecting many residents. As we often see during natural disasters, Harvey amplified pre-existing health and social stresses and inequities. </p>
<p>For example, greater Houston had only a paltry pre-storm <a href="https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/2018/03/27/275635/houston-has-large-backlog-in-affordable-housing/">supply of affordable housing</a>. Now buyers and renters are competing to secure undamaged units. We heard about families who were living in homes with toxic mold because they couldn’t afford to leave, and concerns that rising prices would drive people out on the street or force them to move to other cities and states. However, we also saw signs that communities were using Hurricane Harvey to springboard efforts to address persistent housing problems. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212680/original/file-20180329-189807-4kfmk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212680/original/file-20180329-189807-4kfmk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212680/original/file-20180329-189807-4kfmk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212680/original/file-20180329-189807-4kfmk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212680/original/file-20180329-189807-4kfmk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212680/original/file-20180329-189807-4kfmk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212680/original/file-20180329-189807-4kfmk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212680/original/file-20180329-189807-4kfmk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flooding caused by Hurricane Harvey in southeast Texas, August 31, 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.147atkw.ang.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1304518/guarding-texas-state-federal-agencies-respond-to-harvey/">Staff Sgt. Daniel J. Martinez, Air National Guard</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Turning disasters into opportunities</h2>
<p>The default response after a major disaster is often to rebuild as quickly as possible. This typically means replicating what existed before the storm. But why not build back in a way that corrects long-standing problems? </p>
<p>Major disasters like Hurricane Harvey often bring <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2018/01/04/four-months-after-hurricane-harvey-four-major-questions-about-recovery/">influxes of resources and attention</a> to communities that are struggling with health and social challenges. In a 2015 <a href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/18996/healthy-resilient-and-sustainable-communities-after-disasters-strategies-opportunities-and">report</a>, the Institute of Medicine found that many communities fail to fully leverage recovery resources to address pre-existing issues, such as access to health care. </p>
<p>The report urged communities to consider short- and long-term health impacts of their recovery decisions, known as a “<a href="https://www.apha.org/topics-and-issues/health-in-all-policies">health in all policies</a>” approach to recovery. This approach recognizes that health is connected to many other issues, including transportation, social networks and housing. By thinking about the health impacts of recovery strategies, municipal leaders can rebuild in a way that promotes stronger and more resilient communities. </p>
<p>For example, co-locating mental health professionals at sites where people are signing up for FEMA aid can help more residents get counseling and support. In the long term, decisions about land use in badly damaged neighborhoods can create spaces where people can exercise and socialize, which helps them to lead healthier and happier lives.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212682/original/file-20180329-189827-q0p4nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212682/original/file-20180329-189827-q0p4nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212682/original/file-20180329-189827-q0p4nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212682/original/file-20180329-189827-q0p4nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212682/original/file-20180329-189827-q0p4nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212682/original/file-20180329-189827-q0p4nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212682/original/file-20180329-189827-q0p4nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212682/original/file-20180329-189827-q0p4nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Planning for disasters should include identifying those most likely to need help.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/XT9jZ3">Jill Carlson</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<h2>Leveraging local expertise to build back better</h2>
<p>The idea of incorporating health in all policies may sound sensible, but putting it into action after a hurricane, wildfire or tornado strike is easier said than done. As a former emergency manager in Baltimore, I know that working conditions after disasters are fast-paced and often chaotic. Communities are under political and social pressure to recover quickly, and health may not be at the top of their agendas. </p>
<p>Advance planning for recovery is important. And involving people who understand challenges to community health and well-being is essential. Local health departments, as well as community- and faith-based organizations, are often connected to at-risk populations. Involving these organizations in recovery planning and implementation can inform an approach that promotes community health and well-being. For example, they can identify opportunities to use recovery resources to meet pre-existing housing needs, or direct case management services to families that are already struggling. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"969331833732202496"}"></div></p>
<h2>Building healthier post-Harvey</h2>
<p>Harvey caused <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/UpdatedCostliest.pdf">US$125 billion in damages</a>, making it the second-worst storm to strike the U.S. mainland after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The storm flooded one-third of Houston, displacing <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/texas-officials-hurricane-harvey-death-toll-at-82-mass-casualties-have-absolutely-not-happened/2017/09/14/bff3ffea-9975-11e7-87fc-c3f7ee4035c9_story.html?utm_term=.01924918fda7">more than 30,000 people</a> from their homes.</p>
<p>During our trip to Texas we saw that pre-disaster recovery planning was paying off. As an example, <a href="http://www.fortbendrecovers.org/about/">Fort Bend Recovers</a> was established in Fort Bend County, which covers 885 square miles in the Houston metro area, after <a href="https://www.chron.com/houston/article/Remembering-Houston-s-Memorial-Day-floods-7944644.php">major flooding</a> on Memorial Day in 2016. </p>
<p>In Harvey’s wake, plans developed by Fort Bend Recovers created a process for organizations, including local health and social services agencies, to rapidly reconvene to respond to community needs. Together they offered case management services, staffed mental health support lines, and convened emotional support groups. Such services can help individuals affected by the floods find housing and supplies, but also connect them with solutions for longer-term problems, such as finding affordable medical care. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Lasting impacts in New York City a year after 2012’s Superstorm Sandy.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Hurricane season 2018 is coming</h2>
<p>In order to truly “build back better,” states and communities need to develop a plan for recovery in advance of the next disaster. Galveston County, on Texas’ Gulf Coast, is using its Hurricane Harvey recovery experience to formalize a <a href="https://www.galvestoncountyrecovers.org/">Long Term Recovery Group</a> that brings together the local health department and other community- and faith-based organizations to address community health needs. But we also heard about other communities that still don’t have a plan or mechanism for organizing recovery. </p>
<p>With support from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation’s <a href="http://rwjf-newconnections.org/about-us/">New Connections Program</a>, my research team is now reviewing state disaster recovery plans nationwide. We plan to identify whether and how states use the disaster recovery period to build back better. We hope to highlight recovery strategies that promote equitable access to affordable and safe housing, health care, and places and spaces that encourage healthy activity and foster social connections.</p>
<p>As climate change <a href="https://theconversation.com/has-climate-change-really-improved-u-s-weather-58269">amplifies storms, floods and other extreme weather events</a>, U.S. communities can expect more frequent and severe natural disasters in the years to come. By recognizing and planning for opportunities to build back better, they can make themselves more resilient against the next disaster.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90609/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicole Errett receives funding from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation's New Connections Program.</span></em></p>After disasters, communities often push to rebuild as quickly as possible. A public health expert says they should aim higher and fix problems that exist pre-storm.Nicole Errett, Lecturer in Environmental and Occupational Health, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/910492018-02-14T11:34:48Z2018-02-14T11:34:48ZCaribbean residents see climate change as a severe threat but most in US don’t — here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206036/original/file-20180212-58322-hmro4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People in the U.S. and the Caribbean share vulnerability to climate change-related disasters, but only in the Caribbean is the public truly worried. Why?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.doncio.navy.mil/FileHandler.ashx?id=10786">US Navy</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>During the 2017 <a href="http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/extremely-active-2017-atlantic-hurricane-season-finally-ends">Atlantic basin hurricane season</a>, six major storms – all of which were Category 3 or higher – produced devastating human, material and financial devastation across the southern United States and the Caribbean. </p>
<p>Last year’s above-average storm activity was foreseeable. Hurricane intensity ticked up in <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/summary_atlc_2016.pdf">2016</a> and scientists have predicted this trend will hold as <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/RisingCost/rising_cost5.php">global temperatures continue to rise</a>. </p>
<p>Though people in the U.S. and the Caribbean share this increasing vulnerability to hurricanes, they hold very different opinions about the severity of climate change. According to results from the latest <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/">Vanderbilt University AmericasBarometer survey</a>, a strong majority of Caribbean residents perceive climate change as a “very serious” problem. In contrast, just 44 percent <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/insights/IO929en.pdf">of the U.S. public does</a>.</p>
<p>Why the difference of opinion? Our <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=xwl-kqcAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">research</a> identifies two key factors: politics and risk perception. </p>
<h2>Climate change is a partisan issue in the US</h2>
<p>The AmericasBarometer is a biennial survey conducted by Vanderbilt University’s Latin American Public Opinion Project. The <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/">latest round</a> was conducted between 2016 and 2017 in 29 countries across the Americas.</p>
<p>The 10 Caribbean countries surveyed include <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-help-haitians-recover-from-the-mental-trauma-of-hurricane-matthew-66785">Haiti</a>, Dominica and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/nov/01/it-feels-like-dominica-is-finished-life-amid-the-ruins-left-by-hurricane-maria">Barbuda</a>, all hit hard by hurricanes in recent years. The survey found that between 56 percent and 79 percent of respondents in the Caribbean believe that climate change is a very serious problem for their country. </p>
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<p>Things look different in the United States, where the AmericasBarometer survey affirms <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095937801100104X">prior research</a> demonstrating that climate change is a partisan issue. More than three-quarters of individuals on the liberal side of the political spectrum reported that climate change is a very serious problem. </p>
<p>Less than 20 percent of those with conservative leanings expressed the same degree of concern. </p>
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<p>This pattern holds even when we control for age, education, income, gender and perceptions of disaster risk.</p>
<p>In the Caribbean, political leanings are far less consequential to people’s views of climate change. The AmericasBarometer survey asked respondents in the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica to place themselves on a scale that runs from the political left to the right. We found no significant differences in opinions about climate change from people with different political views.</p>
<p>One explanation for why the Caribbean public demonstrates more of a consensus on climate change, then, is simply that the issue is not politicized in that region. People of all ideological bents agree that, in the Caribbean, climate change poses a very serious problem.</p>
<h2>Just how dangerous is climate change?</h2>
<p>People’s perceptions of their vulnerability to climate change-related dangers may also explain diverging views on the issue.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/">AmericasBarometer</a> asked respondents in both the Caribbean and <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/insights/IO929en.pdf">the United States</a> to assess the odds that they or a family member would be killed or seriously harmed by a natural disaster in the next 25 years. </p>
<p>In both places, those who feel most vulnerable to disasters more often report that climate change is a “very serious” problem. This relationship holds even when accounting for age, education, wealth, urban residence and gender.</p>
<p>Overall, though, in the U.S. people feel less exposed to hurricanes and other disasters than their Caribbean counterparts. In fact, most members of the U.S. public believe that personal harm from a future disaster is either “not likely at all” or “unlikely.”</p>
<p>Most people in the Caribbean, on the other hand, say it is “somewhat likely” or “very likely.” </p>
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<p>These notable differences may be due to geography. Because the Caribbean region is comprised of islands, a higher proportion of <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4_wg2_full_report.pdf">communities there are coastal</a>. This, in turn, can increase the impact that storms have on residents. </p>
<h2>Climate change and hurricanes</h2>
<p>Some scientific consensus exists that <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-can-now-blame-individual-natural-disasters-on-climate-change/">climate change can be blamed</a>, at least in part, for the hundreds of casualties and more than US$400 billion in damage that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2017/10/10/weather/hurricane-nate-maria-irma-harvey-impact-look-back-trnd/index.html">storms brought</a> to the U.S. and the Caribbean in 2017. </p>
<p>Scientific models indicate that the Earth’s warming climate is likely to shape future storm activity in the Atlantic basin. Scientists are not sure, however, exactly how this will manifest itself in future hurricane seasons. Some researchers suggest that warmer temperatures increase storm <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL075888/full">probability</a>. Others restrict the effects to storm <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00195.1">intensity</a>. </p>
<p>The 2018 hurricane season is just a few months away. Our research reveals that with politics removed and risk perceptions elevated, people in the Caribbean are bracing for whatever comes quite differently than their U.S. counterparts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91049/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth J. Zechmeister directs Vanderbilt's Latin American Public Opinion Project. In that capacity, her work has been supported by USAID, the Inter-American Development Bank, United Nations Development Programme and Open Society Foundations. Opinions expressed in this article belong to the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the AmericasBarometer project or its funders.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Q. Evans does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research suggests politics and risk perception may explain why the US and Caribbean see climate change so differently, though both places are ever more vulnerable to powerful hurricanes.Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Cornelius Vanderbilt Professor of Political Science and Director of LAPOP, Vanderbilt UniversityClaire Q. Evans, Doctoral Student, Political Science, Vanderbilt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/893492018-01-03T11:54:19Z2018-01-03T11:54:19ZWhy Puerto Rico’s death toll from Hurricane Maria is so much higher than officials thought<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200259/original/file-20171220-4997-1jgwy6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hurricane Maria's destruction may have led to many hundreds more deaths than originally estimated.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Puerto-Rico-Hurricane-Maria/e37e39399a864230afb0c8421ccad6ab/2/1">Ramon Espinosa/AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>“If you don’t get away from those areas, you are going to die.” That phrase concluded Puerto Rico Secretary of Public Safety Héctor Pesquera’s <a href="http://www.elvocero.com/ley-y-orden/pesquera-tienen-que-desalojar-de-lo-contrario-van-a-morir/article_8f947780-9c77-11e7-86f1-bbb4a3571dd2.html">press conference</a> before Hurricane Maria. </p>
<p>Three months after the storm, he is one of the fiercest protectors of the official death count. As of Dec. 29, the Department of Public Safety had certified <a href="https://www.telemundopr.com/noticias/destacados/Aumentan-a-64-las-muertes-por-el-huracan-Maria-463005263.html">64 deaths</a> due to Hurricane Maria. </p>
<p>However, estimates reported by <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/18/health/puerto-rico-maria-death-count-review/index.html">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/12/08/us/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-death-toll.html">The New York Times</a> and others tell a very different story. </p>
<p>I was part of the team of demographers that developed the first independent estimates of excess deaths, with the objective of informing the public. Like the estimates published by those media outlets, our numbers contrasted significantly with the official figure. The most shocking results from <a href="https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/s7dmu">our study</a> suggest that deaths in September and October were 25 percent above the historical patterns – with about 1,085 added deaths following the hurricane.</p>
<p>Determining the number of excess deaths after a natural disaster is not only a mathematical exercise. Undercounting deaths reduces the attention to the crisis Puerto Ricans live day by day. It can also delay international recovery efforts and the approval of policies to help those who need it the most. </p>
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<h2>Causes of death</h2>
<p>Our study compared preliminary data from the Department of Public Safety with historical patterns for the same months in the past decade. In other words, we compared the number of deaths in September and October last year with data from the same period of time in 2010 to 2016. This is how we concluded that there were 1,085 extra deaths, in excess of historical ranges. </p>
<p>So why are more than 1,000 deaths missing from the official count? My colleagues and I suspect it may come down to how deaths are recorded by government officials.</p>
<p>In Puerto Rico, deaths are recorded using <a href="http://www.who.int/classifications/icd/en/">international classifications</a>. This system doesn’t capture all of the circumstances surrounding a death that happens following a natural disaster. The death may have been accelerated by some conditions – like difficulty communicating during the emergency. </p>
<p>Deaths associated with a particular natural disaster can be classified as direct or indirect deaths. According to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg01.pdf">direct deaths</a> are those “directly attributable to the forces of the disaster or by the direct consequences of these forces, such as structural collapse, flying debris or radiation exposure.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200257/original/file-20171220-4985-1a0x3bx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200257/original/file-20171220-4985-1a0x3bx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200257/original/file-20171220-4985-1a0x3bx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200257/original/file-20171220-4985-1a0x3bx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200257/original/file-20171220-4985-1a0x3bx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200257/original/file-20171220-4985-1a0x3bx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200257/original/file-20171220-4985-1a0x3bx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200257/original/file-20171220-4985-1a0x3bx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Destroyed communication satellite in Humacao, Puerto Rico.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://twitter.com/danvineberg">Dan Vineberg</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>“Indirect deaths” may be associated with any unsafe or unhealthy conditions before, during and after the natural disaster. </p>
<p>For example, Hurricane Maria destroyed Puerto Rico’s power grid. So, someone whose life depended on a dialysis machine would no longer be able to use one. In official certificates, their death would be classified as kidney-related and not attributed to the hurricane – even though the death was accelerated by lack of resources required by the patient to stay alive. </p>
<p>The same would happen to someone whose life depended on respiratory aid. Their death would be classified as pulmonary-related.</p>
<p>Or, say a person feels chest pain and suspects a heart attack. Their immediate reaction might be to call 911. A working communications structure may be able to get help in time and save a life. But in the days following Hurricane Maria, only <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/in-puerto-rico-no-power-means-no-telecommunications/">25 percent</a> of the cellphone towers were working. Communication was virtually impossible. </p>
<p>Under the international system, a death resulting from these circumstances would be classified as a result of a cardiovascular conditions, and would not be attributed to the hurricane either.</p>
<h2>Revising the death count</h2>
<p>In light of the mounting evidence, Governor of Puerto Rico Ricardo Rosselló has ordered a <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/18/health/puerto-rico-maria-death-count-review/index.html">review</a> of the causes of death for those who died after Hurricane Maria. </p>
<p>The review is a step in the right direction. But will the official count change? Probably not. As of today, the government is requiring families to visit the Department of Public Safety and to report if a death was related to Hurricane Maria. But merely revising the causes of death is not enough to determine whether that death was indirectly related to Hurricane Maria. Those in charge of the death count review will need to interview families and ask them about the conditions surrounding the tragedy. </p>
<p>Following the impact of hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria, the CDC <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg01.pdf">published guidelines</a> that state and territorial governments should follow to determine if a death is related or not to a specific event. Following these guidelines could provide the government of Puerto Rico with a more realistic death count. It remains to be seen if the new count will follow this protocol.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200252/original/file-20171220-5004-2l10vy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200252/original/file-20171220-5004-2l10vy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200252/original/file-20171220-5004-2l10vy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200252/original/file-20171220-5004-2l10vy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200252/original/file-20171220-5004-2l10vy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200252/original/file-20171220-5004-2l10vy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200252/original/file-20171220-5004-2l10vy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200252/original/file-20171220-5004-2l10vy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A broken power grid in Humacao, Puerto Rico.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://twitter.com/danvineberg">Dan Vineberg</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>An accurate death count could be used to inform policies, supplement requests for aid in the national and international context and inform local governments as they prepare for future natural disasters that may impact Puerto Rico, particularly extreme weather events now that climate change is expected to worsen. Hurricane Maria was the first storm to destroy the power grid in Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico is six months away from the next hurricane season and experts predict it will be an <a href="http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/fl-reg-tropical-storm-risk-hurricane-season-20171207-story.html">active one</a>. </p>
<p>Finally, minimized figures could weaken efforts to provide relief to communities affected by the hurricane at the local and international level. Given that Puerto Rico does not hold political power in Congress, and that <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/03/politics/puerto-rico-citizens-trump/index.html">the only representative</a> does not vote, it’s crucial to convey the reality to all elected officials, so that their votes align with the necessities of those who are still in Puerto Rico.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89349/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexis R. Santos-Lozada does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The governor of Puerto Rico has ordered a recount of the official death toll for Hurricane Maria. The real number is likely higher by the hundreds. What happened?Alexis R. Santos-Lozada, Assistant Teaching Professor in Sociology and Director of Applied Demography, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/882032017-12-05T04:06:56Z2017-12-05T04:06:56ZTurning hurricanes into music: Can listening to storms help us understand them better?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197002/original/file-20171129-12069-kj3zgg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hurricane Maria, September 2017.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/hurricane-maria-makes-landfall-puerto-rica-718981030?src=UnFs_IIyu5aiiwbe6g7UHw-1-6">lavizzara/shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>During the 2017 hurricane season, major storms in the North Atlantic devastated communities in and around Houston, Florida, Puerto Rico and the wider Caribbean. </p>
<p>The destruction shows how important it is to understand and communicate the serious threats that these storms pose. Scientists have made great strides in forecasting many aspects of storms, but if the people at risk don’t understand the danger they’re in, then the impact is lost. </p>
<p>We are colleagues from different areas of the Penn State campus: One of us is a professor of meteorology, and the other a professor of music technology. Since 2014, we have been working together to sonify the dynamics of tropical storms. In other words, we turn environmental data into music.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/JKqaqndHu04?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Hurricane Sandy, sonified.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By sonifying <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpr0jreqVbU&feature=youtu.be">satellite videos</a> like those often seen in weather reports,
we hope that people will better understand how these extreme storms evolve. </p>
<h2>Data into sound</h2>
<p>Most of us are familiar with data visualization: charts, graphs, maps and animations that represent complex series of numbers. Sonification is an emerging field that creates graphs with sound. </p>
<p>As a simple example, a sonified graph might consist of a rising and falling melody, instead of a rising and falling line on a page.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/59AwYIP6q_E?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A simple example of sonification.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Sonification offers a few benefits over traditional data visualization. One is accessibility: People with visual or cognitive disabilities may be <a href="https://www.ted.com/talks/wanda_diaz_merced_how_a_blind_astronomer_found_a_way_to_hear_the_stars">better able to engage with sound-based media</a>.</p>
<p>Sonification is also good for discovery. Our eyes are good at detecting <a href="http://www.ed.gov.nl.ca/edu/k12/curriculum/guides/art/art1201/sectn1.pdf">static properties</a>, like color, size and texture. But our ears are better at sensing <a href="http://deutsch.ucsd.edu/psychology/pages.php?i=601">properties that change and fluctuate</a>. Qualities such as pitch or rhythm may change very subtly, but still be sensed quite easily. The ears are also better than the eyes at following multiple patterns simultaneously, which is what we do when we appreciate the interlocking parts in a complex piece of music.</p>
<p>Sound is also processed <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/the-universal-sense-9781608198849/">more quickly</a> and <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/298964/this-is-your-brain-on-music-by-daniel-j-levitin/9780452288522/">more viscerally</a> than visuals. That’s why we involuntarily tap our feet and sing along to a favorite song. </p>
<h2>Turning storms into songs</h2>
<p>A hurricane lifetime can last anywhere from a day to a few weeks. Agencies such as the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration continuously measure all sorts of features of a storm. </p>
<p>We distilled the changing characteristics of a hurricane into four features measured every six hours: air pressure, latitude, longitude and asymmetry, a measure of the pattern of the winds blowing around the storm’s center.</p>
<p>To create the sonifications, we export these data into the music synthesis program <a href="http://supercollider.github.io/">SuperCollider</a>. Here, numerical values can be scaled and transposed as necessary so that, for example, a storm lasting several days can be played over just a few minutes or seconds. </p>
<p>Each type of data is then treated like a part in a musical score. Data are used to “play” synthesized instruments that have been created to make sounds suggestive of a storm and to blend well together. </p>
<p>In our recordings, air pressure is conveyed by a swirling, windy sound reflecting pressure changes. More intense hurricanes have lower values of air pressure at sea level. The winds near the ground are also stronger in intense storms.</p>
<p>As pressure lowers, the speed of the swirling in our sonic recordings increases, the volume increases and the windy sound becomes brighter.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RiLgaQRXqSs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This demonstration (not based on actual data) gives the sound that would result from pressure values decreasing and then increasing again.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The longitude of the storm center is reflected in stereo pan, the position of a sound source between the left and right speaker channels.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dZt0jbKN-4A?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The demonstration (not based on actual data) plays longitude positions moving from west to east (left to right). (This is best heard over stereo headphones.)</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Latitude is reflected in the pitch of the swirling sound, as well as in a higher, pulsing sound. As a storm moves away from the equator toward one of the poles, the pitch drops to reflect the drop in temperatures outside the tropics. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/zL2Ku1xe9k8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This is a demonstration (not based on actual data) of latitudes tracking away from the equator and then back toward it. Although there are a very few exceptions, storms typically do not move back toward the equator.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A more circular storm is typically more intense. Symmetry values are reflected in the brightness of a low, underlying sound. When the storm has an oblong or oval shape, the sound is brighter. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Y6S2QmlokH4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This demonstration plays values that outline the life cycle of a storm, evolving from an oval shape to becoming more circular, then returning to an oval shape. This progression reflects what would happen when a weak storm forms, becomes stronger, then dies.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Using sound</h2>
<p>So far, we have sonified 11 storms, as well as mapped <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKTLE1rRUDA&feature=youtu.be">global storm activity from the year 2005</a>.</p>
<p>Storm sonifications could potentially benefit those who are tracking storm systems or updating the public about weather activity. Sonifications could be played over the radio, for example. They might also be useful for people who have limited phone bandwidth and are better able to receive audio content than video content.</p>
<p>Even for experts in meteorology, it can be easier to get a sense of interrelated storm dynamics by hearing them as simultaneous musical parts than by relying on graphics alone. For example, while a storm’s shape is typically tied to air pressure, there are times when storms change shape without changing in air pressure. While this difference can be difficult to see in a visual graph, it’s easily heard in the sonified data.</p>
<p>Our goal is to introduce sonifications of all kinds of graphs into science classes, particularly those with younger students. Sonification is becoming an <a href="http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/psychfacpub/444/">acknowledged research method</a>, and <a href="http://sonification.de/handbook/">several studies</a> have proven it effective at communicating complex data. But its uptake has been slow. </p>
<p>Nationwide, scientists, teachers and school administrators are recognizing the importance of <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/stem-solutions/articles/2014/02/13/gaining-steam-teaching-science-though-art">the arts</a>, <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/nicholas-ferroni/music-in-the-classroom_b_2072777.html">including sound and music</a>, when teaching science and mathematics. If a generation of students grows up experiencing science through more of their senses – sight, hearing and touch – then they may find the sciences more inviting and less intimidating.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/88203/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Ballora receives funding from NAKFI (National Academies Keck Futures Initiative). Two seed grants for sonification work do be done in the area of oceanography. Not directly connected with the work described here, </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jenni Evans receives funding from the National Science Foundation. She is the president-elect of the American Meteorological Society.</span></em></p>A meteorologist and a music technologist team up to turn the data from tropical storms into musical graphs.Mark Ballora, Professor of Music Technology, Penn StateJenni Evans, Professor of Meteorology, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/876582017-11-20T02:26:14Z2017-11-20T02:26:14ZStorms hit poorer people harder, from Superstorm Sandy to Hurricane Maria<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195081/original/file-20171116-15442-1c6ayay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Breezy Point, New York off the coast of Long Island after the storm surge from Superstorm Sandy.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Mark Lennihan</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The ferocious “frankenstorm” known as Sandy that ripped through greater New York City five years ago remains one for the record books. Like this year’s <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/25/news/economy/hurricane-maria-economic-damage/index.html">hurricane season</a>, it racked up <a href="http://www.esa.doc.gov/reports/economic-impact-hurricane-sandy">tens of billions of dollars</a> in economic damages. </p>
<p>Superstorm Sandy had another close, yet underappreciated, similarity to this year’s hurricanes: less affluent groups of people suffered more, both in the initial damage and recovery. </p>
<p>An <a href="https://inequality.studies.stonybrook.edu/wordpress/mapping-sandys-inequalities-2/">analysis</a> by a team I led at Stony Brook University shows that Sandy’s destructive path across Long Island, from Brooklyn to the Hamptons, was not as even-handed as media coverage often made it seem, both in its initial impact and people’s recovery. </p>
<p>The storm season of 2017 has already left behind an even more dramatic version of this story: Following Hurricane Harvey, Houston quickly switched water and electricity back on and emptied most emergency shelters. Meanwhile, several weeks after Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico, much of the island is still in “<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2017/11/10/hurricane-maria-puerto-rico-seven-weeks-later-survival-mode/851084001/">survival mode</a>.” Both hurricane seasons expose the close ties between severe weather events and social inequality.</p>
<h2>Uneven impact</h2>
<p>Though no longer a hurricane when it hit the New York region, Sandy proved big and powerful enough to stir record rises in ocean levels, vying with Long Island’s worst recorded storm of 1938. While high winds brought down trees on cars, homes and power lines across the island’s interior, flooding brought the most damage. Coastline communities bore the brunt of the storm. </p>
<p>In the wake of an onslaught that sounded “<a href="http://www.wnyc.org/story/five-years-after-sandy-one-life-long-rockaway-family-heads-inland/">like a jet plane was landing</a> on your street,” Rockaway resident Richard Blanck found himself up to his ankles in water on his front porch. In nearby Long Beach, “those few residents in the poor neighborhoods of town who owned cars <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/01/sandy-long-beach-ny_n_2061291.html">saw them swallowed up</a>, and disabled, by the salty water.” Farther from New York City, on Long Island, 100 Mastic Beach residents <a href="http://archive.longislandpress.com/2012/10/31/heavy-damage-in-mastic-beach/">had to be rescued</a> from flooded homes. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195287/original/file-20171118-11454-1jcd8lv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195287/original/file-20171118-11454-1jcd8lv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195287/original/file-20171118-11454-1jcd8lv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195287/original/file-20171118-11454-1jcd8lv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195287/original/file-20171118-11454-1jcd8lv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195287/original/file-20171118-11454-1jcd8lv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195287/original/file-20171118-11454-1jcd8lv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195287/original/file-20171118-11454-1jcd8lv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Superstorm Sandy caused more damage in lower-income parts of Long Island, which are more vulnerable to storms.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://inequality.studies.stonybrook.edu/wordpress/damaged-housing-by-median-income/">Stony Brook University’s Center for the Study of Inequality, Social Justice and Policy</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>All three of these communities, among the hardest hit by Sandy, lie along Long Island’s south shore, which has long drawn lower- as well as middle-income residents. This coastline is also more vulnerable to storms sweeping up from warmer waters. By contrast, since its early 20th-century reputation as a “<a href="http://www.ligoldcoast.com/">Gold Coast</a>,” the more insulated north shore remains more uniformly well-to-do and white. </p>
<p>We looked at where people who <a href="https://inequality.studies.stonybrook.edu/wordpress/damaged-housing-by-median-income/">registered significant damage</a> with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) following Sandy lived. Mapping that data, it was clear the northern coastline was affected relatively little, compared to the south-facing and less wealthy parts of Long Island where people reported higher damage.</p>
<h2>Racial dimension</h2>
<p>After World War II, more city-ward shoreline communities such as the Rockaways, Coney Island and Long Beach fell on hard times. <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/04/nyregion/how-new-york-citys-coastline-became-home-to-the-poor.html">Robert Moses and other planners then sited public or publicly subsidized housing there</a>, as blacks and Latinos shut out of much suburban housing also moved nearby. </p>
<p>So when Sandy’s largest storm surges washed in – 17 ½ feet high in Long Beach and 14 feet in parts of the Rockaways – <a href="https://inequality.studies.stonybrook.edu/wordpress/mapping-sandys-inequalities/race-ethnicity-and-flooding/">African-Americans bore an inordinate share of the decimation</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195288/original/file-20171118-11439-1cj1lgb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195288/original/file-20171118-11439-1cj1lgb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195288/original/file-20171118-11439-1cj1lgb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195288/original/file-20171118-11439-1cj1lgb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195288/original/file-20171118-11439-1cj1lgb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195288/original/file-20171118-11439-1cj1lgb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195288/original/file-20171118-11439-1cj1lgb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195288/original/file-20171118-11439-1cj1lgb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Public housing was built in south coastline neighborhoods in the New York City area following World War II and led to a higher concentration of minority groups. The impact of flooding schools hit neighborhoods with a higher African-American population, denoted by darker blocks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://inequality.studies.stonybrook.edu/wordpress/mapping-sandys-inequalities/race-ethnicity-and-flooding/">Stony Brook University’s Center for the Study of Inequality, Social Justice and Policy</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One <a href="http://longisland.news12.com/story/34743023/long-beach-residents-still-struggling-after-sandy">report</a> three years after the storm recounted the experience of Melissa Miller in Long Beach, whose apartment in the Channel Park Homes development was inundated with five inches of sewage-infested water. Nearly every home in Long Beach was flooded, and two-thirds suffered <a href="https://stormrecovery.ny.gov/sites/default/files/crp/community/documents/long_beach_nyrcr_plan.pdf">“heavy or strong damage,”</a> as did 20 percent of those in nearby Far Rockaways, according to state statistics. Our investigation showed her experience was shared by others in publicly subsidized homes, many of them with African-American residents.</p>
<p>Latino communities, though slightly underrepresented in the most damaged areas, joined African-American counterparts in <a href="https://inequality.studies.stonybrook.edu/wordpress/mapping-sandys-inequalities/race-ethnicity-and-flooding/">watching many of their local schools undergo flooding</a>. As our geographic analysis demonstrated, the <a href="https://inequality.studies.stonybrook.edu/wordpress/flooding/">inundation of schools proved widespread along the south shore</a> from central Nassau westward through Queens and Brooklyn. </p>
<p>But along the southeastern and northern shorelines of Long Island, hardly any schools flooded, even in the most stricken communities. More affluent Bayville, in northern Nassau, <a href="https://stormrecovery.ny.gov/sites/default/files/crp/community/documents/bayville_nyrcr_plan.pdf">suffered an 11-foot storm surge</a>, but its schools, situated on higher, dryer ground, lay out of harm’s way.</p>
<p>Less well-off white communities like Coney Island suffered too, and not just from flooding. Breezy Point, for instance, lost <a href="https://stormrecovery.ny.gov/sites/default/files/crp/community/documents/breezypoint_nyrcr_plan_20mb.pdf">10 percent of its housing</a>, 135 homes from an electrical fire as well as 220 from the flood. Eastward along the south shore, from Nassau out through Suffolk counties, we found that wealthier communities weathered Sandy’s waves better than poorer ones such as Mastic Beach.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195289/original/file-20171118-11436-nlrswv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195289/original/file-20171118-11436-nlrswv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195289/original/file-20171118-11436-nlrswv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195289/original/file-20171118-11436-nlrswv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195289/original/file-20171118-11436-nlrswv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195289/original/file-20171118-11436-nlrswv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195289/original/file-20171118-11436-nlrswv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195289/original/file-20171118-11436-nlrswv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mastic Beach, in red, suffered worse damage than Westhampton just to its east because there is denser housing stock and because Mastic Beach has struggled to pass zoning codes to guide and limit residential development in low-lying areas, which makes it harder to withstand flood waters.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Known by the late 20th century as <a href="https://search-proquest-com.proxy.library.stonybrook.edu/newsday/docview/278584743/91A49CBFA0E74DFAPQ/1?accountid=14172">“the poor man’s Westhampton Beach,”</a> Mastic Beach had long offered a cheaper version of shoreline property, in part because the land on which it lies was so uniformly close to sea level, near the water table. So when a Sandy surge washed in, 1,000 of its homes were flooded, many of them by both seawater and cesspool wastes. Next door, the original <a href="https://www.newsday.com/long-island/sandy-recovery-moves-at-uneven-pace-one-year-later-1.6326380">Westhampton Beach, hillier as well as more affluent, experienced far less damage from the storm</a>.</p>
<p>Clearly Westhampton Beach’s lesser vulnerability did not just stem from its higher ground. Westhampton Beach has lower housing density compared to Mastic Beach and <a href="http://westhamptonbeach.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/whb-zoning-map-2-10-10.pdf">longstanding zoning</a> for residential buildings, making this and other affluent areas better able to withstand and absorb floodwaters. Even before Sandy, Westhampton Beach had also long pushed to <a href="http://www.27east.com/news/article.cfm/Westhampton-Beach/141162/Westhampton-Beach-Village-enacts-new-coastal-erosion-rules">preserve dunes and other topography</a> to mitigate surges from Sandy and other storms.</p>
<h2>Still waiting</h2>
<p>If disadvantaged residents and communities suffered more from the storm’s initial blow, they also faced greater obstacles in the struggle to repair or rebuild. </p>
<p>In a better-off north shore town like Bayville, 86 percent of those with severely damaged homes had flood insurance, nearly three times more than the <a href="https://inequality.studies.stonybrook.edu/wordpress/stricken-neighborhoods-case-studies/#chart">30 percent in Coney Island/Brighton Beach</a>. Further drilling into FEMA data showed that in damaged areas of Brooklyn with predominantly African-American residents, only 14 percent of homeowners were insured. Those without insurance had to await FEMA or New York state grants, which often took years to arrive.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195082/original/file-20171116-18368-t4xu89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195082/original/file-20171116-18368-t4xu89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195082/original/file-20171116-18368-t4xu89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195082/original/file-20171116-18368-t4xu89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195082/original/file-20171116-18368-t4xu89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195082/original/file-20171116-18368-t4xu89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195082/original/file-20171116-18368-t4xu89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195082/original/file-20171116-18368-t4xu89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Recovery for people in lower socioeconomic groups of Long Island has been slower than people in more well-off neighborhoods.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Mark Lennihan</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Over the last five years, FEMA as well as New York Rising, the state’s rehabilitation program, have accomplished much across the island, but also frustrated many Sandy victims with the slowness and paltriness of their aid. That only <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2017/10/27/us/ap-us-superstorm-sandy-recovery.html">two-thirds of homeowners in New York Rising have completed their repairs</a> five years after the storm also means that a third have not.</p>
<p>And while Bayville was beginning its <a href="https://www.longislandpress.com/2016/10/29/4-years-after-sandy-recovery-work-continues-on-long-island/">third phase of rebuilding</a> in 2016, those in Long Beach’s Channel Park Homes still awaited adequate repairs by the city housing authority. As <a href="http://www.eraseracismny.org/past-actions/441">reported by the group ERASE Racism</a>, Melissa Miller had received only a new refrigerator and some replacement drywall, along with a “sanitizing” that still left her apartment with a nauseating smell.</p>
<h2>Parallels in Harvey and Maria</h2>
<p>Sandy left a plethora of destruction in its wake, from its 147 deaths to approximately US$65 billion in damages. It also exposed vulnerabilities that were much longer in coming: communities in low-lying areas lacking sufficient infrastructure and insurance for its floods. </p>
<p>We’ve seen this general pattern play out this year as well. As with Hurricanes Irma and Jose – and with a majority of the American citizens in a Hurricane Maria-stricken Puerto Rico – less well-off communities have already shouldered the severest burdens, whether because of lower incomes or racio-ethnic origins or both. </p>
<p>Now more than ever, we need a nationwide conversation on ways our coastal landscapes have developed so that our most vulnerable citizens are now at greater risk from such massive storms. Officials need to find more reliable ways of illuminating problems faced by the less advantaged, and to ensure these are addressed as quickly and effectively as those of the better-off.</p>
<p>Altering these patterns will be difficult but ever more urgent, since future hurricanes are <a href="https://theconversation.com/do-hurricanes-feel-the-effects-of-climate-change-83761">expected to grow in scope and strength</a>.</p>
<p>What Sandy’s inequalities show is that around America’s largest metropolis as much as in other corners of our nation and planet, the battle against global warming is also a battle for environmental justice.</p>
<p><em>Contributors to this project from Stony Brook University include Elaine Cash, Armani Garrick, Stephen Henry, Kara Maroney, Latira Walker and Matthew Walker; Sung Gheel Jang, director of Stony Brook’s Geospatial Center; Paul St. Denis in Stony Brook’s Teaching, Learning Lab, and Technology Lab: also Randy Dible and Julia Clarke.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87658/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Sellers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Five years after Superstorm Sandy, we see how disadvantaged social groups suffered more from the storm before and after – much as we’re seeing in Hurricanes Harvey and Maria.Chris Sellers, Professor of History and Director of the Center for the Study of Inequalities, Social Justice, and Policy, Stony Brook University (The State University of New York)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/858802017-10-20T01:15:36Z2017-10-20T01:15:36ZIn defense of cash: why we should bring back the $500 note and other big bills<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191112/original/file-20171019-1048-1mv1fkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The 'war on cash' is slowly eliminating paper currency. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Thanatos Media/Shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/the-pros-and-cons-of-ditching-cash-for-electronic-currency/2012/03/05/gIQAhCTC4R_story.html?utm_term=.6c1540bcf83a">world without cash</a> seems wonderful at first glance since it is <a href="http://nypost.com/2017/07/14/what-living-in-a-cashless-society-will-look-like/">convenient and fast</a>. You don’t need to withdraw dollars or euros ahead of time. You don’t have to worry about money being lost or stolen. Paying for things with your phone is a breeze.</p>
<p>Many countries around the world are steadily shifting away from cash. <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/future-of-money/10-cashless-countries-world-does-uk-rank/">Canada</a>, the United Kingdom and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/04/sweden-cashless-society-cards-phone-apps-leading-europe">Sweden</a> have already largely embraced a cashless society. The U.S. is also <a href="https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/research-data-report/2016/2014-survey-of-consumer-payment-choice-summary-results.aspx">steadily making the move</a>, with people holding smaller amounts of cash.</p>
<p>However, the recent string of natural disasters and security breaches at major financial entities exposes a huge flaw in this trend: When the power goes out, telephone lines shut down or account information is stolen, it is impossible to use ATMs, credit or debit cards or mobile payments – no matter how rich you are. </p>
<p>In other words, giving up cash increases the chance of the kind of economic catastrophe that results when people can no longer easily trade for the goods they need and want. The solution to this national security issue is simple: bring back the currently maligned large denomination bills like the $500, which <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/slide-show/past-us-currency-denominations/">was discontinued</a> in 1969.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191114/original/file-20171019-1062-oyw6fp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191114/original/file-20171019-1062-oyw6fp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191114/original/file-20171019-1062-oyw6fp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191114/original/file-20171019-1062-oyw6fp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191114/original/file-20171019-1062-oyw6fp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=654&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191114/original/file-20171019-1062-oyw6fp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=654&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191114/original/file-20171019-1062-oyw6fp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=654&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President William McKinley was the last face to adorn the $500 note before it was discontinued in 1969.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:US-$500-GC-1928-Fr-2407.jpg">National Numismatic Collection, National Museum of American History</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Countries going cashless</h2>
<p>Recently, some prominent economists have suggested countries should move to a cashless society, with actions like eliminating the $100 bill. </p>
<p>Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard professor who was also chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, wrote in the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/should-we-move-to-a-mostly-cashless-society-1506305220">Wall Street Journal</a> that <a href="http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/680657">going cashless</a> reduces crime by ensuring tax cheats, drug lords, gangs and terrorists cannot easily fund their activities. </p>
<p>If only small bills are allowed, then people making illegal payments need briefcases <a href="https://www.reference.com/science/much-one-million-dollars-weigh-7ab82498c203efdb">stacked with huge numbers</a> of small denomination bills like $5 and $10s. This is much more difficult than discreetly using a small envelope filled with a few very high value notes.</p>
<p>Some countries have eliminated high value notes to reduce corruption. <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/bs_viewcontent.aspx?Id=3270">India</a> in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/09/business/india-bans-largest-currency-bills-for-now-n-bid-to-cut-corruption.html">2016 eliminated the 500-rupee</a> (about $7.69) and 1,000-rupee notes for this reason before bringing in <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/rbi-to-issue-rs-200-note-tomorrow-here-is-how-it-looks/articleshow/60205741.cms">new denominations</a>. </p>
<p>Larry Summers, an economist who was also president of Harvard and a Treasury secretary, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/02/16/its-time-to-kill-the-100-bill/?tid=a_inl&utm_term=.9a6f50b61a1b">also argued for eliminating both the $100 bill</a> and €500 note (about $592) from circulation. A few months after his recommendation, the European Central Bank decided to stop <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2016/html/pr160504.en.html">issuing the large bills</a> by the end of 2018 in an attempt to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/05/business/international/ecb-to-remove-500-bill-the-bin-laden-bank-note-criminals.html">reduce corruption and terrorism</a>. The <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/end-the-100-bill-uncle-sam-says-no-1466155982">Wall Street Journal reports</a>, however, that there is no move yet to kill off Ben Franklin and his $100 note.</p>
<h2>Risks of a cashless society</h2>
<p>While eliminating high value notes does make illegal transactions harder, it also introduces new risks. A cashless society that solely uses credit cards, debit cards and electronic transfers is dependent on a <a href="https://www.authorize.net/resources/echeckdiagram/">complex network</a> to replace physical money. This network requires three things to work all the time.</p>
<p>First, there always has to be electricity to power the computers and network storage. Second, communication between all parts of the network needs to be available. Finally, the network has to be secure, so only authorized money transactions occur.</p>
<p>All three of these fundamental requirements for a cashless society have broken down recently in dramatic fashion.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/14/us/puerto-rico-recovery/index.html">Hurricanes Irma and Maria devastated</a> Puerto Rico in September. Many weeks later, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/puerto-rico-crisis/puerto-rico-takes-steps-boost-electric-power-next-week-n811561">less than 20 percent of the electricity has been restored</a>, and no one really knows when the rest of the island will regain power. Because the electricity has been cut off to almost all cities and towns, the entire <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/29/us/puerto-rico-shortages-cash.html">island has reverted to a economy based on cash</a>, which is in very short supply. Credit and debit cards can’t be used because there is no way to process transactions and no power to run credit card terminals and readers.</p>
<p>Wildfires are currently <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/15/california-wildfires-death-toll-reaches-40-fires-now-100-miles-wide.html">ravaging Northern California</a>. One of the problems caused by the fires is that the flames have <a href="http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/10/10/danger-road-closures-hamper-efforts-to-restore-phone-and-internet-service-in-fire-areas/">destroyed numerous cell towers</a>. When the phone network goes down, it is impossible both to reach loved ones and for credit and debit card readers to connect to the network. Without a connection, those without cash can’t buy fuel to flee, pay hotels for temporary shelter or purchase food.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191117/original/file-20171019-1072-23jr3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191117/original/file-20171019-1072-23jr3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191117/original/file-20171019-1072-23jr3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191117/original/file-20171019-1072-23jr3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191117/original/file-20171019-1072-23jr3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191117/original/file-20171019-1072-23jr3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191117/original/file-20171019-1072-23jr3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The devastation in Puerto Rico wrought by recent hurricanes shows what can happen when a society is too reliant on electronic money and cash is in short supply.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Carlos Giusti</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Finally, we’ve recently learned how unsecure the network that processes transactions and protects our financial data has become. As most people do not possess piles of coins or bills anymore, our money consists of entries in bank and brokerage databases. If those entries change or disappear, people’s wealth vanishes, too.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/pentagon-turns-to-high-speed-traders-to-fortify-markets-against-cyberattack-1508065202">Pentagon is trying to ensure</a> that cyberattacks cannot disrupt the financial system. Nevertheless, the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/15/world/asia/north-korea-hacking-cyber-sony.html">capabilities of rogue actors</a>, like North Korea, are increasing. It has even been <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-korea-link-suspected-in-taiwan-bank-cyberheist-1508246101">implicated in stealing millions</a> from a Taiwanese bank.</p>
<p>The recent breach of <a href="https://www.consumer.ftc.gov/blog/2017/09/equifax-data-breach-what-do">Equifax’s database</a> and <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/279255-fdic-reports-five-major-data-breach-incidents">hacks</a> at <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-26/unicredit-says-400-000-clients-affected-by-security-breach">numerous other</a> financial <a href="https://www.scmagazine.com/scottrade-bank-data-breach-exposes-20000-customers-personal-information/article/649030/">institutions</a> show security is a major problem.</p>
<p>These events show just how precarious the three pillars of a cashless society are and how quickly they can falter. When this network breaks down, people who do not have <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/02/barter-society-myth/471051/">cash are forced to barter</a>. Bartering is devastating for an economy, in part because it needs a “<a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/the-double-coincidence-of-wants-defintion-1147998">double coincidence of wants</a>.”</p>
<p>A double coincidence means your desire to trade something has to happen or coincide at the exact same moment someone else wants what you are offering – and has something you want as well. Moreover, few people in a <a href="http://businessmacroeconomics.com/">modern economy</a> own many goods or can provide services that are useful for bartering. When a natural disaster or war strikes, no one wants to barter for collections of antique dolls, baseball cards or china.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191118/original/file-20171019-1062-qk1ee4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191118/original/file-20171019-1062-qk1ee4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191118/original/file-20171019-1062-qk1ee4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191118/original/file-20171019-1062-qk1ee4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191118/original/file-20171019-1062-qk1ee4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191118/original/file-20171019-1062-qk1ee4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191118/original/file-20171019-1062-qk1ee4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A woman trades fish for ginger near Gauhati, India.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Anupam Nath</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A solution</h2>
<p>When it works, a cashless society is wonderful. I enjoy not having to carry or worry about cash when I travel. The networks, when they work, are amazing. I have checked my bank balance on the edge of a desert in Botswana using an ATM and paid my taxes from a cell phone in Tokyo.</p>
<p>However, a cashless society means a country’s economy is vulnerable to anything that causes a long-term disruption in power, communications or security. And those threats are rising. The number of <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-catastrophic-disasters-striking-more-often-83599">natural disasters striking the U.S. is increasing</a>, and wars are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/15/world/asia/north-korea-hacking-cyber-sony.html">no longer being fought</a> using just conventional weapons. Today the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-army-outlines-new-approach-to-shifting-battlefields-1507521602">computers that control a country</a> are playing a much bigger role.</p>
<p>Shifting to a cashless economy makes a country more vulnerable to both disasters and wars. National defense is not only about boots, guns and bullets. It is about keeping the economy running at all times. Cash can ensure the economy won’t collapse in an emergency, since people with cash are still able to buy and sell.</p>
<p>The solution is simple. Governments need to bring back higher value <a href="http://www.bankrate.com/financing/banking/pictures-of-big-bills-500-1000-5000-10000/">notes like $500 bills</a>. There clearly are negatives to bringing back large bills, which make it easier for crime and corruption to flourish. I believe, however, that the positives outweigh the negatives, particularly the usefulness of cash during disasters.</p>
<p>Whether governments bring back larger bills or not, store some cash at home in case of emergency. When disaster is about to strike and it is time to flee, having cash in your wallet or purse can make the difference. Cash gives you purchasing power when everything else fails.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85880/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jay L. Zagorsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A cashless society depends on three things, all of which have failed in recent weeks as a result of natural disasters and security breaches.Jay L. Zagorsky, Economist and Research Scientist, The Ohio State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/854182017-10-18T11:45:59Z2017-10-18T11:45:59ZHere’s how citizen scientists assisted with the disaster response in the Caribbean<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190810/original/file-20171018-32345-13gi3sc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1333%2C0%2C2692%2C3024&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nyng/36776009450/sizes/l">New York National Guard/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The post-disaster environment poses immense challenges for crisis response teams tasked with assessing the extent of the damage as quickly as possible, often over thousands of square miles. These teams need a sound and reliable understanding of the situation on the ground, to quickly and safely provide the right help to the people affected. </p>
<p>Citizen scientists from around the world can play a key role in delivering this information to emergency responders on the ground. In the wake of hurricanes Irma and Maria, which swept across the Caribbean during September 2017, an ongoing collaboration between <a href="https://www.zooniverse.org/">the Zooniverse</a> (an online citizen science platform), <a href="http://www.robots.ox.ac.uk/%7Eparg/">the University of Oxford</a>, and NGO <a href="http://www.rescueglobal.org/">Rescue Global</a>, has enlisted thousands of volunteers worldwide to analyse satellite-based information. </p>
<p>The end result is a series of maps that highlight affected areas, providing a robust source of information which helps Rescue Global and the disaster relief community to generate more detailed mapping, and conduct needs assessments, aid deliveries and evacuations on the ground.</p>
<h2>Rapid response</h2>
<p>When Rescue Global began their Hurricane Irma response operation in early September, the <a href="https://www.zooniverse.org/projects/vrooje/planetary-response-network-and-rescue-global-caribbean-storms-2017">Planetary Response Network</a>, a collaboration between the
Zooniverse and Oxford University, was activated quickly and began sourcing satellite images of the disaster-affected areas from data providers <a href="https://www.planet.com/">Planet</a>, <a href="https://www.digitalglobe.com/">Digital Globe</a>, <a href="https://www.nasa.gov">NASA</a> and <a href="http://www.esa.int/ESA">ESA</a>.</p>
<p>Next, they issued a shout-out to their existing network of past and present volunteers. A call to action was also distributed by Rescue Global together with the University of Oxford, who were able to rally a large and diverse audience through their social media channels. The initial campaign was so successful that the first set of data was classified in just two hours.</p>
<p>The volunteers analyse a series of “before” and “after” satellite images of the islands damaged by the hurricanes, to identify a number of pre-selected features. These include damaged buildings, areas of flooding, blocked roads, rubbish heaps and new, temporary settlements that may indicate displaced or homeless populations. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190814/original/file-20171018-32370-1o9s03a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190814/original/file-20171018-32370-1o9s03a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190814/original/file-20171018-32370-1o9s03a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190814/original/file-20171018-32370-1o9s03a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190814/original/file-20171018-32370-1o9s03a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190814/original/file-20171018-32370-1o9s03a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190814/original/file-20171018-32370-1o9s03a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190814/original/file-20171018-32370-1o9s03a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Citizen scientists identify damaged areas in Dominica, following Hurricane Maria.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.rescueglobal.org/hurricane-irma-and-hurricane-maria-damage-assessments">Rescue Global</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This process happened in real time during the relief operation. New satellite image sets were being released regularly. Depending on the changing response priorities, the Planetary Response Network team could select which sets required urgent analysis, immediately load them onto the Zooniverse platform and launch a fresh call for volunteers.</p>
<h2>A joint effort</h2>
<p>After each round of analysis is complete, the Machine Learning Research Group at Oxford runs the results through machine learning algorithms. These algorithms can quickly resolve inconsistent responses, bring all the data together and integrate information derived from other crowdsourced mapping sources, such as the <a href="https://www.hotosm.org/">Humanitarian Open Street Map</a> and <a href="https://www.tomnod.com/">Tomnod</a>. </p>
<p>This approach increases the reliability of the information gathered and generates high quality intelligence that is accurate enough to inform targeted relief efforts. It allows the team to build impact “<a href="http://www.rescueglobal.org/hurricane-irma-and-hurricane-maria-damage-assessments">heat maps</a>”, which highlight areas where features such as flooding and damaged buildings have been consistently identified by the crowd. </p>
<p>These maps enable Rescue Global to better understand the situation on the ground. This is crucial when it comes to drawing up evidence-based plans for critical needs assessments, extensive aerial and ground reconnaissance missions, the successful delivery of aid and satellite communications and for conducting medical evacuations.</p>
<figure>
<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/237666542" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>This information helps to keep response teams safe, while enabling them to reach areas in urgent need of assistance. The maps are shared widely among the disaster response community, forming part of a suite of intelligence and assessment material from various sources working on the response. </p>
<h2>A better future</h2>
<p>Over a month has now passed since Rescue Global deployed to the Caribbean, and the Planetary Response Network began mapping the region. By the time Hurricane Maria made landfall in Dominica on September 18, Zooniverse volunteers had classified nine different image sets from all over the Caribbean, as well as additional images of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the US and British Virgin Islands, Antigua and Barbuda. </p>
<p>Over the course of the last three and a half weeks, the time volunteers have spent classifying features has amounted to roughly eight months’ worth of continuous human effort. To put that into perspective; if you hired one person full-time to complete that amount of work, it would take them almost three years.</p>
<p>These tools have been refined over several years, having been used previously to assist Rescue Global in its response to the 2015 Nepal and 2016 Ecuador earthquakes. Now, the platform is being made more adaptable, so it can cope with multiple sudden-onset hazards. </p>
<p>Its flexibility is also being enhanced, so that it’s better able to forecast damage before it even occurs. For example, before post-Maria satellite images were even released, the pre-Irma and Maria images were processed and the machine learning folded in building information from Open Street Maps. In a matter of hours, the network produced maps of the projected damage to aid preemptive response planning.</p>
<p>Reducing risk, building resilience and responding more effectively to disasters all require forward planning. And now, as evidence-based decision making is becoming ever more important for humanitarians, this new technology has the potential to shape a better future for disaster management.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85418/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebekah Yore receives funding from Rescue Global. </span></em></p>With this technology, citizen scientists could even help to predict the damage caused by future disasters.Rebekah Yore, PhD Candidate in Disaster Risk Reduction, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/858512017-10-17T13:22:41Z2017-10-17T13:22:41ZWhy (ex)Hurricane Ophelia took a wrong turn towards Ireland and Britain – and carried all that dust<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190632/original/file-20171017-30390-5euzt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/barometer/uk-storm-centre/ophelia">Met Office</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Hurricane Ophelia, by then downgraded to Storm Ophelia, reached Ireland on Monday October 16. At the time of writing there had already been three deaths and countless reports of severe damage to buildings and fallen trees. Unlike other severe storms to reach Ireland and Britain, such as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/sting-jet-the-mysterious-cause-of-the-1987-great-storms-worst-winds-85620">1987 Great Storm</a>, Ophelia was in many ways a typical tropical cyclone with a tight spiral of cloud, powerfully strong winds, and a cloud-free eye.</p>
<p>But what set it apart from other Atlantic hurricanes was its direct route to Europe. While hurricanes do sometimes take a circuitous route westward across the ocean and loop back again towards Europe, this one took a short cut.</p>
<p>Ophelia began as a rather innocuous looking group of clouds in the Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles south-west of the Azores and roughly on the same latitude as Morocco or northern Florida. Yet even at this stage it was unusual. Most named storms in the Atlantic are generated in warmer waters much further south and, as such, they are generally driven across the ocean by the easterly (blowing westwards) trade winds. They eventually dissipate as they curve north into the Atlantic or make landfall in the Caribbean, Mexico or the US. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190634/original/file-20171017-30417-d50w2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190634/original/file-20171017-30417-d50w2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190634/original/file-20171017-30417-d50w2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190634/original/file-20171017-30417-d50w2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190634/original/file-20171017-30417-d50w2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190634/original/file-20171017-30417-d50w2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190634/original/file-20171017-30417-d50w2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190634/original/file-20171017-30417-d50w2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tracks of all Atlantic hurricanes from 1851 to 2012.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Atlantic_hurricane_tracks.jpg">Nilfanion / US National Hurricane Centre</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Ophelia’s case, moderate atmospheric shear (changes in direction and strength of wind with height) and relatively cool sea surface temperatures meant it took several days to develop the well-defined low pressure centre, strong winds and spiral clouds of a hurricane. Then, instead of travelling west, like most Atlantic hurricanes, Ophelia began to head north-east.</p>
<p>This can be explained by the position and strength of the mid-latitude jet stream, an atmospheric feature that plays a major role in determining the weather over Western Europe. When its path loops north over the UK it can produce <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-the-omega-shaped-jet-stream-responsible-for-europes-heatwave-44268">stable warm conditions</a> in the summer (as in the record-breaking heatwave of July 2015), and bright cold days in the winter. When its path west to east is more direct, it guides low pressure storm systems across the UK and Ireland and can be responsible for the rapid strengthening of storms in a short period of time (described colloquially by forecasters <a href="https://theconversation.com/weather-bomb-scary-new-name-for-common-winter-storm-35413">as a “weather bomb”</a>). </p>
<figure>
<iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/uDOWJ8J8zD1fy" width="100%" height="324" frameborder="0" style="max-width: 100%" class="giphy-embed" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption>A northwards loop of the jet stream (far right) guided Ophelia from the Azores to Ireland.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It is this that produced such a rapid change in direction for Ophelia. Such waves on the mid-latitude jet stream are not unusual, however, the combination of both the jet’s and Ophelia’s position produced the conditions to guide the ex-hurricane toward the British Isles.</p>
<h2>Adrift in the Azores</h2>
<p>Tropical cyclones that form in or travel to the region near the Azores can become trapped. Stronger vertical wind shear to the north and south as well as colder sea surface temperatures in the surroundings can lead to storms that travel very slowly and eventually dissipate due to unfavourable conditions. </p>
<p>If there is no external force that can help to steer the storm, but conditions remain favourable, then tropical cyclones can persist for a long time. An example of this was <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142012_Nadine.pdf">Hurricane Nadine</a> which circled the same part of the ocean where Ophelia formed for almost a month in 2012, the fourth longest-lived Atlantic hurricane on record.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190635/original/file-20171017-30410-1a324p0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190635/original/file-20171017-30410-1a324p0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190635/original/file-20171017-30410-1a324p0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190635/original/file-20171017-30410-1a324p0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190635/original/file-20171017-30410-1a324p0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190635/original/file-20171017-30410-1a324p0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190635/original/file-20171017-30410-1a324p0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190635/original/file-20171017-30410-1a324p0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">First part of Ophelia’s journey. Compare to the map above – very few hurricanes take this route.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/025759.shtml?swath#contents">US National Hurricane Centre</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That may have been Ophelia’s fate too, had it not been for the mid-latitude jet stream which instead guided the hurricane directly toward Ireland. It is partly due to this behaviour that the forecasts have been so accurate. Jet streams are generally well represented in numerical weather models, and so their influence on a storm’s path can be well predicted.</p>
<p>Ahead of Ophelia’s arrival the UK had a weekend of unseasonably balmy temperatures thanks to warm tropical air driven northwards. This is partly due to the winds circulating around the Ophelia low pressure centre, but also the positioning of the jet stream helping to draw air up from the tropics. </p>
<h2>What about that dust?</h2>
<p>On Monday much of the UK looked far less like a hurricane had arrived, and much more like the whole country had been put through a rosy Instagram filter. The sun was particularly red at dawn and throughout much of the day the whole sky glowed a yellowy-orange. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"920033678872285184"}"></div></p>
<p>This effect was partly thanks to the southerly winds on Ophelia’s eastern side, which transported Saharan dust and smoke from Iberian forest fires. In fact several flights over the UK were forced to make <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-41639386">emergency landings</a> when smoke could be smelt in the cabin. Increased number of particles in the atmosphere then scattered light preferentially from the blue end of the spectrum, leaving the more orange and red colours to reach our eyes. </p>
<p>But Ophelia also produced a layer of upper level clouds, thick enough to block out much of the sun’s rays directly but thin enough to allow a large amount of diffuse, scattered light to pass through. On a day when the sky was not full of smoke and dust particles, this would have appeared like a run-of-the-mill white skied, overcast day. However, on Monday it led to Facebook feeds being filled with photos of a bright orange sun at midday and yellow clouds.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85851/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Roberts receives funding from Natural Environment Research Council. </span></em></p>Very few Atlantic hurricanes travel northwards like this.Alexander Roberts, Researcher, Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science (ICAS), University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/848822017-10-06T10:28:40Z2017-10-06T10:28:40ZWhy people stay in disaster-prone cities<p>The 2017 hurricane season has brought unprecedented destruction to the Caribbean and southern United States. As millions of people around the world have watched these events unfold from afar, no doubt some have found themselves wondering why people continue to live in places under threat from natural disasters – and even return to rebuild these places after they’ve been destroyed. </p>
<p>As a senior lecturer in government and public policy, I take a strong interest in these matters. After Hurricanes Katrina and Rita devastated portions of the US Gulf Coast in 2005, I conducted a survey of people who survived those hurricanes, as well as those who had followed the media coverage from other hurricane-prone areas in the US. My research offers three key findings, which help to explain the way people deal with disasters.</p>
<h2>1. Trust matters</h2>
<p>I <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1065912915575790">found that</a> people decide where to live in part based on how much trust they have in their public officials. If they trust the public officials and disaster managers in a particular community, they are more likely to continue living there after a disaster, because they believe the managers will do a good job in future crises. </p>
<p>This trust is continually built (or eroded) based on the performance of public officials in emergencies. The more positive contact people have with public officials, the more likely they are to trust them to do their jobs. Receiving aid swiftly from temporary distribution centres, or getting help over the phone from aid personnel, increases our trust in the people and agencies supplying that aid. </p>
<p>This means that <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ropr.12123/full">people tend to</a> have higher trust in their local officials, with whom they are more likely to come into direct contact. Even if trust declines in national officials due to their behaviour or performance, it will not influence someone’s choice of where to live if they believe their local officials will still do a good job in future crises.</p>
<p>So though it is somewhat counter-intuitive, I found that even after incredibly destructive disasters, good experiences with public officials actually strengthen citizens’ resolve to live in threatened areas.</p>
<h2>2. You can’t imagine what it’s like</h2>
<p>As outsiders, it can be confusing to see people return to rebuild amid devastation. Using the same survey, I compared what the hurricane survivors actually did, thought and felt to what outside observers predicted they would do, think and feel in similar situations. It <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13669877.2015.1017827">turns out that</a> when we imagine ourselves in situations seen in the media, we predict that we will behave in drastically different ways to the people who are actually experiencing them. </p>
<p>This is due, in part, to a natural tendency to fear events that are incredibly damaging – even if those events are highly unlikely to occur. A classic example is that many people are afraid of air crashes but not of car crashes, even though the probability of an aircraft crashing is much lower than that of a car. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188992/original/file-20171005-9802-xbgh3s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188992/original/file-20171005-9802-xbgh3s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188992/original/file-20171005-9802-xbgh3s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188992/original/file-20171005-9802-xbgh3s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188992/original/file-20171005-9802-xbgh3s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188992/original/file-20171005-9802-xbgh3s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188992/original/file-20171005-9802-xbgh3s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cause for alarm? Probably not.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/39463459@N08/16284910719/sizes/l">HooLengSiong/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When presented with a hypothetical situation such as a hurricane, we often imagine the worst-case scenario: that our homes will suffer much more damage than the average and that our lives will suffer far more disruption than even the worst hurricanes in history have caused. </p>
<p>Research <a href="http://www.cambridge.org/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=9781107021129&ss=fro">tells us</a> that the media coverage of such events is partly to blame for this. Many outlets will focus on the most shocking or evocative images and stories, in order to keep viewers’ attention. </p>
<p>This combination of factors mean that outsiders tend to believe that, faced with such a scenario, they would take extreme action – such as never returning to their homes. But in reality, many more people opt to return to their homes and rebuild than those who choose to move away. </p>
<h2>3. It just feels like home</h2>
<p>When asked why people live where they do, both survivors and observers homed in on two answers. As one might expect, jobs and employment are important to people’s choice of where to live. But many choose where to live because “it just feels like home”. This sense of place compels people around the world to live where they do. </p>
<p>The longer a person’s family has lived in a particular area, the more likely that person is to return home after being evacuated. Likewise, the stronger their ties to church communities, neighbours and local economic activities, the more likely that person is to try to go back. </p>
<p>These personal considerations are difficult to quantify – but they mean that future threats do not factor as highly into people’s decision to return and rebuild as outsiders might think. So, you may look on from afar and wonder how anyone would want to rebuild a devastated area. You may even try to put yourself in the place of survivors – and still believe that you would never react the same way. </p>
<p>But my work shows that the ties that bind people to their homes are stronger than we typically imagine. So, if it comes to the point where communities need to be moved out of harm’s way, the answer lies not in highlighting the threat of disaster. Instead, it’s crucial to create governments which survivors can trust – and places where they can feel truly at home.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84882/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gina Yannitell Reinhardt receives funding from the UK Economic and Social Research Council, the US National Science Foundation, the Wellcome Trust, and the British Academy.</span></em></p>There’s something in the old adage, ‘there’s no place like home’.Gina Yannitell Reinhardt, Senior Lecturer/Associate Professor, Department of Government, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/842472017-10-03T10:11:04Z2017-10-03T10:11:04ZAfter a disaster, contaminated floodwater can pose a threat for months to come<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188025/original/file-20170928-1488-1xmjvl4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">What's in the water?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/David J. Phillip</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, reporters <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/31/us/houston-contaminated-floodwaters.html">warned</a> of a “stew of toxic chemicals, sewage, debris and waste” in Houston’s floodwaters. </p>
<p>It isn’t just Harvey. Hurricanes Irma and Maria and other floods and storms heighten the risks for contamination, environmental hazards and <a href="http://doi.org/10.4161/21505594.2014.975022">disease</a>. <a href="http://www.who.int/hac/techguidance/ems/flood_cds/en/">Public health experts</a> frequently warn about the unique dangers to those evacuating from or returning to disaster-affected areas. Sadly, in the stress of the situation, these risks are often overlooked. </p>
<p>Before wading through floodwaters full of chemical spills, biotoxins, invasive species, waste, sewage and debris, it’s important to know what to watch out for and how to avoid getting hurt. </p>
<h1>Bacterial illness</h1>
<p>After epic hurricanes, <a href="http://doi.org/10.1007/s40257-015-0138-4">bacterial illnesses</a> are a common problem. </p>
<p>Hurricane <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25099408">floodwaters</a> may be contaminated by sewage with E. coli bacteria, which can cause serious <a href="http://doi.org/10.1007/s11908-011-0225-5">gastrointestinal illness</a>. <a href="http://doi.org/10.1007/s40257-015-0138-4">Bacterial pathogens</a> such as Staphylococcus and Streptococcus can lead to skin infections. Shigella can cause gastrointestinal illness in the form of diarrhea, vomiting, fever, stomach pain and dehydration.</p>
<p>After Hurricane Katrina, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm54d914a1.htm">surveys</a> identified <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/hurricane-harvey-infectious-diseases-flood-water-bacteria-viruses-656093">cases</a> of Vibrio illness, a bacterial illness classically associated with exposure to saltwater or brackish water. This illness led to a handful of fatalities.</p>
<p>Storms and floods also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049023X17006574">increase the risk</a> for <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/leptospirosis/index.html">leptospirosis</a>. This bacterial disease, if left untreated, can lead to kidney damage, liver failure and even death.</p>
<p>Inhaling airborne moisture droplets can also put you at risk for <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/hurricane-harvey-infectious-diseases-flood-water-bacteria-viruses-656093">Legionnaires’ disease</a>, which is caused by Legionella, a freshwater bacteria that easily spreads to human-made water systems during floods. This can lead to pneumonia-type symptoms, as well as gastrointestinal illness.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049023X17006574">One review</a> found that storms heightened the risk of poisonings, wounds, gastrointestinal infections and skin or soft tissue infections, primarily from Staph and strep infections. </p>
<p>Many of these <a href="http://doi.org/10.1007/s40257-015-0138-4">bacterial illnesses</a> resolve on their own, but some require antibiotics. Tetanus prophylaxis vaccines can prevent bacterial infections through open cuts.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188027/original/file-20170928-1438-rpkj1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188027/original/file-20170928-1438-rpkj1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188027/original/file-20170928-1438-rpkj1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188027/original/file-20170928-1438-rpkj1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188027/original/file-20170928-1438-rpkj1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188027/original/file-20170928-1438-rpkj1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188027/original/file-20170928-1438-rpkj1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">From chemicals to mosquitoes, standing floodwaters carry a long list of public health risks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/David J. Phillip</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Toxic chemicals and gases</h2>
<p>Chemical leaks and spills in floodwater can pose serious risks to human health.</p>
<p>When any flood or hurricane hits an urban industrial area, there’s a risk of toxic gases, such as as methane and sulfur dioxide, as well as industrial chemicals like benzene and butadiene, which can potentially cause cancer after large or chronic exposures. After Hurricane Harvey, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/08/us/houston-hurricane-harvey-harzardous-chemicals.html">more than 40 sites</a> reportedly released hazardous pollutants. </p>
<p>Hurricane Harvey caused flooding or damage to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/08/us/houston-hurricane-harvey-harzardous-chemicals.html">at least 14 Superfund toxic waste sites</a> in and around Houston. These sites are contaminated with dioxins, lead, arsenic and mercury, as well as other dangerous industrial compounds. These can cause serious health issues in the brain, blood and kidneys. </p>
<p>Many natural gas and other <a href="http://www.denverpost.com/2017/09/09/oil-gas-tank-failures-hurricane-harvey-pollution/">fuel lines</a> were also broken during Hurricanes Harvey and Katrina. Abandoned buildings may host highly explosive gas vapors. Methane and other explosive gases may also accumulate from decaying materials. </p>
<h2>Other threats</h2>
<p>Floodwaters can make houses especially hospitable to <a href="https://www.epa.gov/mold/mold-cleanup-your-home">mold</a>, particularly in humid conditions like Texas, Puerto Rico and Florida. Multiplying mold spores carry <a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-bleach-mold-a-long-term-problem-after-flooding-and-disasters-84399">serious public health risks</a>, especially for people with existing mold allergies and asthma. </p>
<p>Standing water is also likely to cause an uptick in <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/zika/vector/mosquitoes-and-hurricanes.html">mosquito</a> populations. Mosquitoes are vectors for a number of <a href="https://theconversation.com/harvey-and-irma-present-nearly-perfect-conditions-for-zika-spreading-mosquitoes-83938">serious viruses</a>, including Zika and yellow fever.</p>
<p>Standing water and humid conditions may also increase human encounters with <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/id/9316257/ns/health-health_care/t/snake-bites-stomach-aches-katrinas-wake/#.WcUGBRNSzeQ">venomous snakes</a>, <a href="https://www.inquisitr.com/4463981/alligators-snakes-new-danger-in-hurricane-flooding-disoriented-gators-show-up-on-doorsteps/">fire ants</a> and stinging insects. Many of these animals may have been flooded out of their nests.</p>
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<p>What’s more, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2012.06.003">rates of death</a> may increase by up to 50 percent in the first year after a flood, secondary to outbreaks of diseases such as hepatitis E, gastrointestinal disease and leptospirosis.</p>
<h1>What to do?</h1>
<p>If you live in an area that’s at risk for hurricanes and storms, you can take steps now to protect yourself. </p>
<p>Make sure smoke and carbon monoxide detectors are properly functioning. You should also invest in basement sump pumps and flood insurance if you live near a river, coastline or floodplain. Flood insurance can give you the necessary support to quickly clean up, evacuate and repair damaged buildings.</p>
<p>Survivors of Harvey, Irma, Maria and other storms should make every effort to limit their contact with floodwater. Often, particularly in the aftermath, this can be unavoidable. If possible, wait until the water level goes down or try to obtain transportation by boat.</p>
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<p>Open all windows when entering a building. If you smell gas or hear the sound of escaping gas, don’t smoke, operate electrical switches or create any other source of ignition. Leave the building immediately, leaving the door open. Don’t go back inside until you are told by authorities that it is safe to do so.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cdc.gov/disasters/mold/reenter.html">Remove standing water</a> as quickly as possible. Remove wet materials and discard those that cannot be thoroughly cleaned and dried. Materials that have been wet for longer than 48 hours may need to be discarded, as they will likely remain a source of <a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-bleach-mold-a-long-term-problem-after-flooding-and-disasters-84399">mold</a>.</p>
<p>Dry out the building. This will take time and may require the extensive disinfection and removal of some materials. Heavily contaminated floodwaters can penetrate deep into soaked, porous materials such as drywall and wood, later releasing microorganisms and other contaminants into air or water. Microorganisms will continue to grow as long as materials remain wet and humidity is high. </p>
<p>When cleaning, limit exposure to airborne mold spores by wearing gloves, goggles and a respirator, if available, or a dust mask, so you can avoid breathing in contaminated vapor or mist. If there’s no standing water in the building and it’s safe to use electricity, use fans both during and after the use of cleaning products.</p>
<p>Exercise caution when disturbing building materials such as floor tiles, pipe insulation and paint. <a href="https://www.epa.gov/large-scale-residential-demolition/asbestos-containing-materials-acm-and-demolition#asbestos-adi-guidance">These</a> may contain hazards such as <a href="https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-09/documents/floods.pdf">asbestos</a> and <a href="https://www.epa.gov/lead/post-disaster-renovations-and-lead-based-paint">lead</a>.</p>
<p>Many will use gas-powered generators to pump out floodwater. But beware – those generators can produce poisonous carbon monoxide gas in enclosed areas. In fact, <a href="https://www.epa.gov/indoor-air-quality-iaq/carbon-monoxides-impact-indoor-air-quality">cases of poisoning by carbon monoxide</a> typically increase after disasters due to the improper use of fuel-burning devices.</p>
<p>You should also be on the alert for leaking containers and reactive household chemicals, like caustic drain cleaners and chlorine bleach. Stay away from leaking or spilled chemicals – even if a container is broken, it’s best to leave it undisturbed until it can be properly disposed of by authorities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84247/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Natural disasters expose people to toxic gases, bacterial illness and other serious dangers. How can people maximize their safety as they return home?Timothy B. Erickson, Faculty in Medical Toxicology, Brigham & Women's Hospital, Harvard UniversityJulia Brooks, Researcher in international law and humanitarian response, Harvard Humanitarian Initiative (HHI), Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/839352017-09-26T00:16:51Z2017-09-26T00:16:51ZAs communities rebuild after hurricanes, study shows wetlands can significantly reduce property damage<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187281/original/file-20170924-11625-oduqde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Coastal wetlands are an effective first line of defense and act by slowing down storm surges and reducing flooding</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/dibGy9">Kelly Fike/USFWS</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A 12-year “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/07/the-science-behind-the-u-s-s-strange-hurricane-drought-and-its-sudden-end/?utm_term=.c030f9594f3e">hurricane drought</a>” during which no major hurricanes made landfall in the continental United States ended dramatically in 2017. The devastating impacts of Harvey, Irma, Jose and Maria across the United States and the Caribbean provide tragic reminders of the catastrophic risks we face on our coasts.</p>
<p>Coastlines are being developed rapidly and intensely in the United States and worldwide. The population of central and south Florida, for example, has grown by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/07/climate/florida-hurricane-irma-damage.html?mcubz=0">six million since 1990</a>. Many of these cities and towns face the brunt of damage from hurricanes and are looking for better and cheaper ways to reduce their risks. Yet this rapid coastal development is destroying natural ecosystems like marshes, mangroves and coral reefs – resources that help protect us from catastrophes.</p>
<p>In a new and unique partnership <a href="https://www.lloyds.com/lloyds/corporate-responsibility/charity/tercentenary-research-foundation/role-of-coastal-habitats-in-managing-natural-hazards">funded by Lloyd’s of London</a>, we worked with colleagues in academia, environmental organizations and the insurance industry to calculate the financial benefits that coastal wetlands provide by reducing storm surge damages from hurricanes. Our recently published <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-09269-z">study</a> found that this function is enormously valuable. It offers new evidence that protecting natural ecosystems is a cost-effective way to reduce risks from coastal storms and flooding.</p>
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<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/188757883" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Coastal wetlands and flood damage reduction: A collaboration between academia, conservation and the risk industry.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>The economic value of flood protection from wetlands</h2>
<p>Although there is a broad understanding that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0154735">wetlands can protect coastlines</a>, researchers have not explicitly measured how and where these benefits translate into dollar values in terms of reduced risks to people and property. To answer this question, our group worked with experts who understand risk best: insurers and risk modelers. </p>
<p>Using the industry’s storm surge <a href="http://www.rms.com/models/flood">models,</a> we compared the flooding and property damages that occurred with wetlands during Hurricane Sandy to the damages that would have occurred if these wetlands were lost. First we compared the extent and severity of flooding during Sandy to the flooding that would have happened in a scenario where all the coastal wetlands were lost. Then, using high-resolution data on assets in the flooded locations, we measured the property damages for both simulations. The difference in damages – with wetlands and without – gave us an estimate of the damages that were avoided due to the presence of these ecosystems.</p>
<p><a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-09269-z">Our paper</a> shows that during Hurricane Sandy in 2012, coastal wetlands prevented more than US$625 million in direct property damages by buffering coasts against its storm surge. Across 12 coastal states, from Maine to North Carolina, wetlands and marshes reduced damages by an average of 11 percent. </p>
<p>These benefits varied widely by location at the local and state level. In Maryland, wetlands reduced damages by 30 percent. In highly urban areas like New York and New Jersey they provided hundreds of millions of dollars in flood protection.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186483/original/file-20170918-30563-celbpm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186483/original/file-20170918-30563-celbpm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186483/original/file-20170918-30563-celbpm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=763&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186483/original/file-20170918-30563-celbpm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=763&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186483/original/file-20170918-30563-celbpm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=763&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186483/original/file-20170918-30563-celbpm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=959&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186483/original/file-20170918-30563-celbpm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=959&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186483/original/file-20170918-30563-celbpm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=959&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wetland benefits for flood damage reduction during Sandy (redder areas benefited more from having wetlands).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-09269-z/figures/1">Narayan et al., Nature Scientific Reports 7, 9463 (2017).</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Wetlands reduced damages in most locations, but not everywhere. In places in North Carolina and the Chesapeake Bay, wetlands redirected the surge in ways that protected properties directly behind them, but caused greater flooding to some properties, mainly in front of the marshes. Just as we would not build in front of a seawall or a levee, it is important to be aware of the impacts of building near wetlands.</p>
<p>Wetlands reduce flood losses from storms every year, not just during single catastrophic events. We examined the effects of marshes across 2,000 storms in Barnegat Bay, New Jersey. These marshes reduced flood losses annually by an average of 16 percent, and up to 70 percent in some locations.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186485/original/file-20170918-30536-5x4eea.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186485/original/file-20170918-30536-5x4eea.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186485/original/file-20170918-30536-5x4eea.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=261&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186485/original/file-20170918-30536-5x4eea.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=261&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186485/original/file-20170918-30536-5x4eea.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=261&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186485/original/file-20170918-30536-5x4eea.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186485/original/file-20170918-30536-5x4eea.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186485/original/file-20170918-30536-5x4eea.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Reductions in annual flood losses to properties that have a marsh in front (blue) versus properties that have lost the marshes in front (orange).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-09269-z/figures/3">Narayan et al., Nature Scientific Reports 7, 9463 (2017).</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Reducing risk through conservation</h2>
<p>Our study demonstrates that we can measure the reduction in flood risks that coastal ecosystems provide – a concern that is central for the <a href="https://hbr.org/2017/08/how-the-insurance-industry-can-push-us-to-prepare-for-climate-change">risk and insurance industry</a> and for coastal managers. We show that these risk reduction benefits are significant and make a strong case for conserving and protecting our coastal ecosystems – an issue central to conservation practitioners.</p>
<p>The next step is to <a href="http://nature.org/FinancingNaturalInfrastructureReport10.7291/V9PN93H3">use these benefits to create incentives</a> for wetland conservation and restoration. Homeowners and municipalities could receive reductions on insurance premiums for managing wetlands. Post-storm spending should include more <a href="http://news.maryland.gov/dnr/2017/09/20/new-grant-program-funds-nature-based-solutions-to-protect-coastal-communities/">support for this natural infrastructure</a>. And new financial tools such as <a href="http://www.refocuspartners.com/rebound/">resilience bonds</a>, which incentivize investments in measures that reduce risk, could support wetland restoration efforts too.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187408/original/file-20170925-18946-e7hsee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187408/original/file-20170925-18946-e7hsee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187408/original/file-20170925-18946-e7hsee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187408/original/file-20170925-18946-e7hsee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187408/original/file-20170925-18946-e7hsee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187408/original/file-20170925-18946-e7hsee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187408/original/file-20170925-18946-e7hsee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187408/original/file-20170925-18946-e7hsee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The dense vegetation and shallow waters within wetlands can slow the advance of storm surge and dissipate wave energy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.nad.usace.army.mil/Portals/40/siteimages/NACCS/20.jpg">USACE</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>After the 2017 hurricanes</h2>
<p>As communities in Texas, Florida and the Caribbean assess their losses, the conversation is starting to turn toward <a href="https://theconversation.com/6-rules-for-rebuilding-infrastructure-in-an-era-of-unprecedented-weather-events-83129">rebuilding and improving resilience</a> against future storms.</p>
<p>It is human nature to want to return to the status quo after a disaster. More often than not, this means <a href="https://doi.org/10.15351/2373-8456.1069">rebuilding seawalls</a> and concrete barriers. But concrete walls are expensive, <a href="https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-12-00230.1">will need constant upgrades</a> as sea levels rise and will further damage our natural ecosystems.</p>
<p>Even after suffering years of damage, Florida’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2012.02.021">mangrove wetlands</a> and <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms4794">coral reefs</a> play crucial roles in protecting the state from hurricane surges and waves. And yet, over the last six decades urban development has <a href="https://sanctuaries.noaa.gov/science/condition/fknms/state.html">eliminated</a> half of Florida’s historic mangrove habitat. Losses are still occurring across the state from the Keys to <a href="http://reefrelieffounders.com/mangroves.html">Tampa Bay and Miami</a>. Protecting and nurturing these natural first lines of defense could help Florida homeowners reduce damages to their properties during future storms.</p>
<p>Protecting coastal ecosystems is not a full remedy for coastal risks, but it should be part of a <a href="http://www.nad.usace.army.mil/CompStudy/Risk-Management-Strategies/">portfolio of solutions</a>, from elevating buildings to strengthening levees to flood proofing. Beyond hurricane season, coastal communities face a crucial question: whether they can <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-victims-of-hurricane-harvey-can-learn-from-katrina-as-rebuilding-begins-83184">rebuild</a> in ways that make them better-prepared for the next storm while also conserving their natural resources. Our work shows that the answer is yes. </p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This article has been updated to clarify that the 12-year “hurricane drought” describes a period during which no major hurricane made landfall in the continental United States.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83935/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Siddharth Narayan receives funding from the Lloyd's Tercentenary Research Foundation, a charity wing of Lloyd's of London.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Beck receives funding from the Lloyd's Tercentenary Research Foundation. He is the lead marine scientist for The Nature Conservancy.</span></em></p>New research by scholars, conservationists and the insurance industry shows that coastal wetlands provide hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of protection from flooding, boosting the case for protecting them.Siddharth Narayan, Postdoctoral Fellow, Coastal Flood Risk, University of California, Santa CruzMichael Beck, Adjunct Professor, University of California, Santa CruzLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/844092017-09-21T17:36:10Z2017-09-21T17:36:10ZQ&A: how cities can recover from natural disasters<p><em>In the space of a month, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/20/mexico-earthquake-volunteers-survivors-rescue">hundreds of lives</a> have been lost due to natural disasters. Mexico was hit by <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/20/americas/mexico-two-earthquakes-in-one-month/index.html">two high-magnitude earthquakes</a> within two weeks, while swathes of the US and the Caribbean have been severely damaged or destroyed by the force of three successive hurricanes: <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-blame-climate-change-for-the-hurricane-harvey-disaster-blame-society-83163">Harvey</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-41172545">Irma</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/09/20/hurricane-maria-takes-aim-at-puerto-rico-with-force-not-seen-in-modern-history/?utm_term=.cb91cd33129c">Maria</a>. The Conversation spoke to Alfredo Stein Heinemann – a lecturer in urban development planning with more than 30 years of experience studying post-disaster reconstruction – to see how communities can mitigate and recover from the devastation wrought by natural disasters.</em> </p>
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<h2>Who are the people at greatest risk from natural disasters?</h2>
<p>In my experience from different places around the world, the people who suffer most when disasters happen are the urban poor. Usually, in these communities, the materials that people use to build their houses are substandard. Also, because land is so expensive in the city, the poor end up living in areas that are more vulnerable to the impacts of earthquakes or hurricanes. </p>
<p>What is interesting about the recent earthquake in Mexico, is that the affected areas that we have seen through the images transmitted worldwide seem relatively well off, and many of the buildings that have collapsed were located in middle-class neighbourhoods. Compared to the earthquake which <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/sep/18/mexico-city-earthquake-30-years-lessons">hit Mexico City in 1985</a> and killed 5,000 people, there were far fewer casualties this time around, and there’s no doubt that building codes, norms and practices have improved in the city over the last few decades. </p>
<p>But still, I think there are ongoing issues regarding corruption and malpractice when it comes to construction regulations and supervision – not only in Mexico, but across the world – where building companies sometimes use less robust materials in order to reduce costs. It’s a bit like what <a href="https://theconversation.com/grenfell-tower-fire-tragedy-reveals-ugly-flaws-of-regeneration-agenda-79452">the controversy</a> we saw during the recent fire at Grenfell Tower in London. </p>
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<h2>How long will it be until authorities can ensure that buildings are safe?</h2>
<p>Inspecting buildings to assess whether they have structural damage can actually be quite a rapid process. If there are good civil engineers who have experience in post-disaster reconstruction, they can make the appraisals within days. My concern with this kind of disaster is related to the processes that come afterwards, when the limelight fades away and no one is paying attention anymore. </p>
<p>In neighbourhoods that were already well established, there is going to be land speculation. In existing neighbourhoods where low-income families were living side by side with middle- and even upper-class households, there will be a push from private developers to buy up the buildings that were damaged or collapsed, so that they can rebuild costly apartments there instead. So you end up with new buildings that only higher income households can afford.</p>
<p>For example, after the flooding and landslides caused by <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Hurricane-Mitch">Hurricane Mitch in Honduras</a> in 1998, some slums and informal settlements - especially those located near river banks – were declared uninhabitable. The scarcity of affordable land in cities was one factor which led to the relocation of low income households far from where they originally lived, and allowed higher income groups and developers <a href="http://www.globalurban.org/GUDMag07Vol3Iss1/Pearce-Oroz.htm">to capture</a> many of these vacant plots of land. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187073/original/file-20170921-21016-gukz7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187073/original/file-20170921-21016-gukz7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187073/original/file-20170921-21016-gukz7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187073/original/file-20170921-21016-gukz7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187073/original/file-20170921-21016-gukz7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187073/original/file-20170921-21016-gukz7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187073/original/file-20170921-21016-gukz7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Going upmarket: Tegucigalpa, Honduras.</span>
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<p>A similar thing happened in Chile, in the city of Talca, where <a href="http://www.academia.edu/13030282/Gentrification_in_the_context_of_post-_earthquake_reconstruction_urban_policies_A_review_of_the_Chilean_experience">preliminary research</a> has shown that neighbourhoods which were quite mixed in the past have started to become gentrified in the reconstruction process that began after the 2010 earthquake. The problem is that national and local governments sometimes rush to declare certain areas unsafe, not knowing that this opens the way for property speculation, and eventually market evictions. </p>
<p>That’s one of the reasons, if you ask me, that people should not necessarily be permanently relocated or displaced from the places they were living; because that place is their home, it’s near where they work and it’s where their whole social network is located. </p>
<h2>So what can be done to help communities stick together and stay in the place they call home, in the wake of a natural disaster?</h2>
<p>The most important thing is not to treat people like victims. They have been hit by an earthquake or a hurricane, and they are are in a state of shock, and they will probably need a lot of assistance. But they are the ones who have been affected, and as such, they should be key part of the decisions and reconstruction and rebuilding processes. </p>
<p>External forces, such as governments and aid agencies, as well as architects and engineers, need to help communities to be a part of that process, rather than making decisions on their behalf. Communities need to be active and involved, not just passively waiting for things to happen. The images of solidarity of people working together and helping their neighbours in both Mexico and the Caribbean are therefore encouraging. </p>
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<p>Governments and NGOs helping with reconstruction also need to be aware of the social networks and economic activities that local people had before, and try to rebuild those, too. </p>
<p>My main message is: do not relocate people. One of the main reasons that the recovery effort has been so slow in Haiti is that people were moved kilometres away from where they used to live – many are still in temporary shelters almost eight years after the 2011 earthquake. </p>
<h2>Experts are predicting that extreme weather events are going to become <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/8/28/16213268/harvey-climate-change">even more severe</a> – do you think that people living in vulnerable places might one day be forced to abandon their homes?</h2>
<p>I answer this with another question: would you ever think of evacuating London because there is a possibility of flooding? And the answer would be no, because we would find the technological and financial resources to invest in making the city more resilient. </p>
<p>Severe and extreme weather events are part of our daily life from now onward, and we have to learn to live with them. Life will continue in the Caribbean, life will continue in Mexico City, and I think that – rather than considering moving people out of these places – we need to be considering what we can do to minimise the impacts of climate change or future earthquakes. </p>
<p>Of course, when you have two hurricanes of this scale hitting you in a row, it’s like having two massive heart attacks one after the other. But there are ways of building with appropriate technology, which can reduce the possibility of buildings being totally destroyed, while making disaster recovery more straightforward. </p>
<p>Instead of people going and living in vulnerable and at risk areas, enact policies that enable people to access safer land with services where to live at an affordable price near the places where they work. Introduce small credit schemes, which enable people to build their own homes to high standards, with technical assistance, while still having the capacity to repay the loans. Invest in infrastructure to stabilise plots and make land liveable. These are the types of measures that we should be thinking of, especially in cities which are very prone to those types of disasters. </p>
<p>Another problem with big disaster stories like those we have experienced in the past month – especially as they relate to the impacts of severe and extreme weather – is that low-income households living in vulnerable areas in cities across the world are suffering more from short and intense torrential rainfall that can cause small landslides or flooding of 10 or 15 houses in a slum in one hour, and intense heat waves that affect elderly and infants and dry out the sources of water nearby. The daily impacts of these weather events is eroding the assets of the urban poor. And because these are not disaster stories, we don’t hear about them. </p>
<h2>How can the governments of poorer countries afford to invest in measures like these, to make it easier to deal with disasters when they occur?</h2>
<p>Poor people have resources. I’m not just talking about the house that they have already built by their own means; people also have social networks, education, health – they have their own income-generating activities. So you can always rely on those resources that people already possess, to help with disaster recovery and to take adaption measures that help to reduce or mitigate the risk of future weather events. </p>
<p>It’s amazing to see, when you visit the slums, how <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956247813519046">people are already taking measures</a>; for example, inside their homes they raise their beds and electrical equipment off the floor when they know that the floods are coming. The problem is that academics, aid agencies or governments are not able to see what people are already doing. </p>
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<p>Consider that <a href="http://csud.ei.columbia.edu/files/2012/04/Slumdwellers-complete.pdf">about ten years ago</a>, the majority of houses in the developing world were not built by the governments or private companies, they were built by the efforts of the people. It’s possible to leverage local resources and support people to take preventive measures through partnerships with the public and private sectors – whether that’s philanthropic agencies like the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, or private companies and banks. The role of governments is to enable the formation of these partnerships. </p>
<p>By providing better technical assistance, and allocating a small amount of resources to improve the quality of housing, you can effectively mobilise local resources to help solve the problem. Co-financing and micro-lending schemes such as <a href="http://www.microfinancegateway.org/sites/default/files/mfg-en-case-study-participation-and-sustainability-in-social-projects-the-experience-of-the-local-development-program-prodel-in-nicaragua-jun-2000.pdf">PRODEL</a> in Nicaragua give people the power to make adaptations and take preventive measures, using their own resources together with finance from local government, the private sector or international aid agencies. These types of programs exist in different parts of the world, and more and more you see organised communities having this capacity to negotiate with local governments. </p>
<p>Instead of waiting for services to be delivered, people are saying to their local governments “we will invest our work, our labour, our resources, if you will allow and help us in providing services in these communities”. So when there are these dramatic events, it’s important not to lose sight of the fact that the main resources needed for recovery are already there, and that’s people themselves, with their own capacities, professions and social networks. That is where reconstruction begins.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84409/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>As member of the Global Urban Research Group, University of Manchester Alfredo Stein Heinemann received a research grant from the Nordic Development Fund (NDF) through the Inter American Development Bank (IADB) for a project on Climate Change Adaptation in Tegucigalpa, Honduras. He was pro-bono advisor to Comic Relief's Urban Upgrading Programme.As a member of the Global Urban Research Group (GURG), University of Manchester, Alfredo Stein Heinemann received a applied research grant from the Nordic Development Fund (NDF) through the Inter American Development Bank (IADB) for a project on Asset Planning for Climate Change Adaptation in Tegucigalpa, Honduras. He was also part of a team of GURG that implemented research projects on pro-poor climate change adaptation in cities of the global South funded by the Social Division of the World Bank and the Ford Foundation. He worked for the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) in post-emergency reconstruction projects in Central America, and has also been a pro-bono advisor the Comic Relief’s urban slum upgrading programme.</span></em></p>An expert in post-disaster reconstruction explains what works, and what doesn’t, when it comes to rebuilding a city.Alfredo Stein Heinemann, Lecturer in Urban Development Planning, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/837702017-09-18T01:05:24Z2017-09-18T01:05:24ZWhy Hurricanes Harvey and Irma won’t lead to action on climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186074/original/file-20170914-22524-13rjti4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Picking up the pieces in Florida after Hurricane Irma. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Gerald Herbert</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s not easy to hold the nation’s attention for long, but three solid weeks of <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/09/12/550188154/hurricane-irma-blasts-into-the-record-books-with-lasting-intensity">record-smashing</a> <a href="http://time.com/4921086/cedar-bayou-texas-rain-record-hurricane-harvey/">hurricanes</a> directly affecting multiple states and at <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/12/climate/florida-power-outages.html">least 20 million people</a> will do it. </p>
<p>Clustered disasters hold our attention in ways that singular events cannot – they open our minds to the possibility that these aren’t just accidents or natural phenomena to be painfully endured. As such, they can provoke debates over the larger “disaster lessons” we should be learning. And I would argue the combination of Harvey and Irma has triggered such a moment. </p>
<p>The damages caused by the storms will undoubtedly lead to important lessons in disaster preparation and response. For many, though, the most <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2017/09/13/hurricanes-harvey-irma-global-warming-editorials-debates/658353001/">urgent call</a> for learning has been to <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/15/us/climate-change-hurricanes-harvey-and-irma/index.html">acknowledge</a> at long last the connection between <a href="http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=21852">climate change and severe weather</a>. </p>
<p>Will this cluster of disasters provide the lever that will move climate change in the United States from a “debate” to an action plan?</p>
<p>It’s easy to view disaster history in this cause-effect way – to hop in time from disaster to disaster and spot the reforms as though they naturally emerge from adversity and commitment to change. But as a historian with a focus on risk and disasters, I can say this view can be misleading. </p>
<h2>Generational reform</h2>
<p>Early in the 20th century, the United States went through an era of profound concern over urban disasters that seemed to threaten city life itself. </p>
<p>In December 1903, the <a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/chi-chicagodays-iroquoisfire-story-story.html">Iroquois Theatre Fire</a> in Chicago killed over 600 audience members due to faulty construction. Just over a month later, in February 1904, <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/history/bs-baltimorefire-slideshow-htmlstory.html">the Great Baltimore Fire</a> consumed 140 acres of the city. That same month, a <a href="http://www.rochestersubway.com/topics/2011/02/today-february-26-in-rochester-history-rochester-swept-by-great-fire/">major fire ravaged Rochester</a>. In June of the same year over 1,000 people died due to a fire aboard the <a href="https://www.nypl.org/blog/2011/06/13/great-slocum-disaster-june-15-1904">General Slocum steamship</a> in New York City. </p>
<p>Newspapers of the era were full of anger and fear over the dangers of fire and the unscrupulous actions of greedy builders and ship line operators. Despite the intensity of this 1903-04 disaster cluster, Americans would see many more such disasters (<a href="https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/events/1906calif/18april/">San Francisco 1906</a>, <a href="https://www.osha.gov/oas/trianglefactoryfire.html">Triangle Shirtwaist Fire 1911</a>) before consequential reforms in fire safety were passed into law. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186075/original/file-20170914-9015-n5dvh3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186075/original/file-20170914-9015-n5dvh3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186075/original/file-20170914-9015-n5dvh3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186075/original/file-20170914-9015-n5dvh3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186075/original/file-20170914-9015-n5dvh3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186075/original/file-20170914-9015-n5dvh3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186075/original/file-20170914-9015-n5dvh3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186075/original/file-20170914-9015-n5dvh3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The Iroquois Theatre fire in Chicago in 1903 shocked and outraged the country, but it took years before any societal action on fire hazards took hold.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo</span></span>
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<p>Eventually those reforms did arrive, but not all at once, and not with one bill. The reforms were distributed in building codes, city plans and product safety standards that came into place by the 1930s. The disasters defined moments in time; reform was generational.</p>
<p>The aftermath of September 11 provides another telling example. The disaster led to multiple investigations and studies, including the best-selling <a href="https://www.9-11commission.gov/report/911Report.pdf">9/11 Commission Report</a>. Perhaps the most lasting effect of September 11 was the restructuring of government that created the Department of Homeland Security. </p>
<p>However, we should be careful when we leap quickly from disaster to reform. The federal response to 9/11 appeared swift and decisive but was in fact following a script set in place over the previous decade through repeated attempts by some policymakers to reshape the government’s capacity to respond to the terrorism threat. </p>
<p>It took years for scientists at the National Institute of Standards and Technology to <a href="https://www.nist.gov/engineering-laboratory/final-reports-nist-world-trade-center-disaster-investigation">finally explain the exact causes</a> for the collapse of the Twin Towers. And in doing so, they uncovered fire, structural and evacuation vulnerabilities in the towers. These flaws were <a href="https://www.usfa.fema.gov/downloads/pdf/publications/tr-076.pdf">first witnessed in the 1993 bombing</a> but dated back to the 1960s when the buildings were designed and built. The September 11 reforms did come, but only as part of a broad continuum of concern, research and debate over policy choices that had long preceded that terrible day.</p>
<h2>Slow-moving disasters versus events</h2>
<p>This brings us back to Harvey, Irma and the climate change connection. We have not seen any storm-day conversions on climate change in the Trump administration — indeed, EPA Secretary Scott Pruitt remarked that it was “<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/07/politics/scott-pruitt-hurricanes-climate-change-interview/index.html">insensitive</a>” to even broach the topic while the storms were still active. </p>
<p>There is plenty of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/11/04/the-huge-paradox-at-the-heart-of-how-people-think-about-environmental-risks/?utm_term=.5da65ab9032d">evidence in social psychology</a> to indicate that individual perceptions of risk – or individual commitments to an ideology – cannot be easily shaken be external factors, even factors as dramatic as storms like Harvey, Irma or even Katrina. </p>
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<p>This fits the historical pattern: Clustered disasters might sharpen our senses to the risks in our midst and even disturb our complacency, but they will not necessarily lead directly to new legislation or personal ideological shifts. Strong commitments to land use, profits and real estate development have historically militated against calls for caution, restraint and mitigation, even though these types of laws make Americans safer from disasters. This dynamic will not be altered by two hurricanes, no matter how terrifying their effects.</p>
<p>Better indicators of change, drawing from history, have proven to be events that cluster over much larger stretches of time. A “slow disaster” frame allows civil society and scientific researchers to build a case for change that is strengthened by disaster events. For example, the red alert about the toxicity of DDT raised by Rachel Carson in 1962 had immediate effects, but that was only one early step in a series of events that followed. It should be seen as part of a much more impactful and slower process of reform that led to the creation of the Environmental Protection Agency in 1970 and a wave of environmental regulations that took effect in that decade.</p>
<p>This relationship between discrete disaster events and slow disaster eras is a critical one for us to understand. We might just now be at the very beginning of such an era in the public consciousness over the connections between disasters such as hurricanes, fires, droughts and the slow disaster of climate change.</p>
<p>It’s frustrating for people who want quick government action on climate change to be told they should play a “slow disaster” game. And why shouldn’t they be angered if they have experienced the loss of a loved one or a home in the disasters of these past weeks? Still, it’s useful for us to see that even the most devastating disasters are probably points on a longer timeline – one that might lead to reform if and when broad-based political action prepares the way. </p>
<p>Indeed, disaster victims making common cause with scientists and engineers has been one proven way to bring about a type of learning from disaster that might be more effective towards achieving ambitious changes. These could include the United States reentering the global community on climate action and the passage of laws that would require climate change planning to affect future construction. </p>
<p>But the hurricanes of Harvey and Irma will be a catalyst for a new age of realism regarding the hazards of climate change only once civil society and our politicians recognize them as part of a pattern that stretches over decades, not weeks. Our urgency to learn from disaster is important, and it is a moral imperative. We would be wise to harness this urgency to form a generational commitment to reducing the suffering from disasters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83770/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott Knowles has received funding from the National Science Foundation.</span></em></p>For the first time in years, Americans are acutely aware of the perils of extreme weather, but don’t expect views on climate risks to shift overnight.Scott Gabriel Knowles, Professor of History, Drexel UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/837612017-09-13T02:34:38Z2017-09-13T02:34:38ZDo hurricanes feel the effects of climate change?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185717/original/file-20170912-3785-1y11062.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Satellite image on Sept. 7, 2017 shows three hurricanes: Irma in the center just north of the island of Hispaniola, Katia on the left in the Gulf of Mexico and Jose in the Atlantic Ocean on the right.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">NOAA via AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Hurricane Harvey, with its historical amount of rainfall over Texas, followed by a string of Hurricanes Irma, Jose and Katia in the North Atlantic basin in 2017, has triggered longstanding questions about any linkage between hurricanes and climate. </p>
<p>Can we really blame these recent hurricanes on climate changes? Or are they simply a coincidence of nature happening once every few decades, similar to the triple of Hurricanes <a href="http://www.hurricanetracker.colonieweatheronline.com/archives/1967.html">Beulah, Chloe and Doria</a> back in 1967? </p>
<p>Answering these questions lies at the heart of the current hurricane climate research that atmospheric scientists are trying to understand. There are signs that climate change can influence hurricanes in several different ways. However, these signals are inconclusive due to our inadequate understanding of how hurricanes interact with the environment. </p>
<h2>Link to ocean temperature</h2>
<p>Much as a flu virus <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/change.htm">morphs</a> in different environments and becomes more infectious in cold winter temperatures, hurricanes depend on the ambient environment for their existence and motion. To what extent the surrounding environment affects hurricane development is indeed among the most extensively studied topics in hurricane research. </p>
<p>Evidence of the environment’s role on hurricane development has been noted since the early 1950s, yet a major milestone was achieved by <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-and-hurricane-katrina-what-have-we-learned-46297">Kerry Emanuel</a> at MIT in his <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1986)043%3C0585:AASITF%3E2.0.CO;2">studies</a> of hurricane dynamics in the late 1980s. </p>
<p>His idea was to consider hurricanes as heat engines that can extract heat from the ocean surface and exhaust it at the upper troposphere. In this way, Emanuel was able to obtain a mathematical expression showing how the maximum potential intensity a hurricane can attain in a given environment depends on sea surface temperature and temperature near the top of the atmospheric troposphere around 14 kilometers, or 8.8 miles, above the sea. A warmer sea surface temperature would result in a higher intensity, according to Emanuel’s formulation. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185742/original/file-20170912-3814-1rhtnt9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185742/original/file-20170912-3814-1rhtnt9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185742/original/file-20170912-3814-1rhtnt9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185742/original/file-20170912-3814-1rhtnt9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185742/original/file-20170912-3814-1rhtnt9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185742/original/file-20170912-3814-1rhtnt9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185742/original/file-20170912-3814-1rhtnt9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185742/original/file-20170912-3814-1rhtnt9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The ‘fuel’ for hurricanes comes from the energy in the ocean’s heat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/hurricanes/en/">NASA</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>In essence, Emanuel’s relationship between hurricane intensity and sea surface temperature dictates how strong a hurricane can be for a given environmental condition. Numerous studies have then confirmed the importance of sea surface temperature in controlling hurricane maximum intensity, and suggest an increase of <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00195.1">2-3 percent</a> in hurricane strength per 1 Celsius degree increase in sea surface temperature under favorable conditions.</p>
<p>From this perspective, it is thus very tempting to assert that hurricane intensity variations must be connected to the global climate due to the vital role of ocean temperatures in hurricane development. Indeed, many <a href="http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v1/n6/abs/ngeo202.html?foxtrotcallback=true">studies</a> of hurricane intensity climatology consider ocean temperature as a main proxy to detect the future trend in hurricane intensity change. </p>
<p>The common consensus among these studies is a conclusion that future hurricanes will tend to be stronger than those in the present-day climate, assuming that sea surface temperature will continue its current warming trend into the future. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185712/original/file-20170912-3750-f084nj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185712/original/file-20170912-3750-f084nj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185712/original/file-20170912-3750-f084nj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185712/original/file-20170912-3750-f084nj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185712/original/file-20170912-3750-f084nj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185712/original/file-20170912-3750-f084nj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185712/original/file-20170912-3750-f084nj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185712/original/file-20170912-3750-f084nj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global distribution of tropical cyclones with generally higher hurricane intensity in the northwest Pacific basin due to warmer sea surface temperature.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/inventory-tropical-cyclone-tracks">NOAA</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Looking at extremes for clues</h2>
<p>While we can expect an increase in hurricane intensity as a result of rising ocean temperatures, how to interpret this result to one specific hurricane turns out to be very different. </p>
<p>For an intuitive illustration of how difficult this can be, consider how climate change can affect aspects of our weather, such as the daily variation of temperature. </p>
<p>For instance, a future air temperature warming of 0.5 degrees in the next 10 years would be mostly masked out by any daily temperature variation, which is in the range of 10 degrees between day and night. In this sense, it would be hasty to jump to a conclusion that the high intensity of Hurricane Harvey or Irma is caused by climate changes, simply because fluctuations in local weather conditions could contribute much more than climate change signals. </p>
<p>On top of the day-to-day intensity fluctuations due to local environmental conditions, hurricanes may also possess chaotic behaviors that cause their intensity to highly vary. A recent <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00168.1">study</a> showed internal variations of hurricane intensity could be as large as 10-18 miles per hour, which is larger than what would be induced by climate change. </p>
<p>On the other hand, one should not naively deny any claim that the extreme impacts of Hurricane Harvey or Irma are symptoms of climate changes. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185743/original/file-20170912-17992-2zdsll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185743/original/file-20170912-17992-2zdsll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185743/original/file-20170912-17992-2zdsll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185743/original/file-20170912-17992-2zdsll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185743/original/file-20170912-17992-2zdsll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185743/original/file-20170912-17992-2zdsll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185743/original/file-20170912-17992-2zdsll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185743/original/file-20170912-17992-2zdsll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Extreme events, such as the rain associated with Hurricane Harvey, provide an opportunity for researchers to study the effects of climate change because they are outside the day-to-day variability of weather.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/David J. Philip</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/03/170327083120.htm">research has indicated</a> that the change in global climate could lead to a <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-melting-arctic-and-weird-weather-the-plot-thickens-37314">shift of the jet stream behaviors</a> over North America. Flooding related to Harvey was unusual in part because the storm stalled over Texas for much longer than any other hurricane. So while our current knowledge does not allow us to connect Harvey’s intensity to any specific changes in climate, the abnormality of the Harvey <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-made-the-rain-in-hurricane-harvey-so-extreme-83137">stalling for a long period over land</a> could be a manifestation of the shift in global circulation in a warmer climate.</p>
<p>Likewise, the emergence of triple hurricanes in the Atlantic basin during September 2017 could be another potential signal of the more favorable conditions for hurricane formation from climate change. </p>
<p>From the climatological perspective, it is the frequency and magnitude of these abnormal extremes, such as the prolonged period over land of Hurricane Harvey or the extreme intensity of Hurricane Irma, that are often of utmost interest to researchers. This is because these extremes are signals of climate changes that can be distinguished from day-to-day variations. </p>
<h2>Limits of our understanding</h2>
<p>Along with direct impacts of climate on hurricane intensity, another conceivable influence of climate on hurricanes is the shift of the hurricane track pattern in the future climate. </p>
<p>In principle, a change in global air circulation patterns could influence the steering flows that guide hurricane movement, much like a leaf carried away by a river. As such, variations in global circulations associated with climate change could introduce another degree of variability to hurricane impacts that we have to take into account. </p>
<p>A recent climatological study led by James Kossin at University of Wisconsin suggested a poleward <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v509/n7500/full/nature13278.html?foxtrotcallback=true">shift of the hurricane maximum intensity location</a> in a warming climate. But unlike the connection between hurricane intensity and the ambient environment, the linkage between global circulation change and hurricane movement is much harder to quantify at present. </p>
<p>While research on hurricanes gives us a good sense of how hurricanes would change in a warmer climate, measuring this change and, in particular, tying a unique feature of one specific hurricane to climate change are beyond the current level of confidence. </p>
<p>In reality, there are several other factors that could strongly interfere with hurricane development, such as the change of atmospheric temperature with height. These factors directly affect the interaction of hurricanes with the surrounding environment. However, these are very difficult to quantify in the context of climate change due to the different time scales between hurricane development – measured on the order of days and weeks – and climate change, which occurs over decades.</p>
<p>From a scientist’s perspective, the lack of understanding of climate impacts on hurricanes is disappointing, if not irritating. On the other hand, these uncertainties continue to motivate us to search for any possible link between hurricanes – including their intensity, frequency, time of formation and location – and climate. Better understanding of hurricane-climate relation is needed, as ultimately that knowledge can help serve society.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83761/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chanh Kieu receives funding from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. </span></em></p>What scientists know – and don’t know – about the linkage between climate change and hurricanes.Chanh Kieu, Assistant Professor of Atmospheric Science, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/837712017-09-13T02:34:30Z2017-09-13T02:34:30ZShould the US put power lines underground?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185537/original/file-20170911-8010-1vyov1u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hurricanes Harvey and Irma caused widespread power outages. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Eric Gay</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It is the height of a highly destructive hurricane season in the United States. The devastation of Harvey in Texas and Louisiana caused <a href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2017/08/f36/Hurricane%20Harvey%20Event%20Summary%20%235.pdf">nearly 300,000 customers</a> to lose electricity service, and Hurricane Irma has <a href="https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2017/09/f36/hurricanes-irma-and-harvey-event-summary-26.pdf">cut service to millions of people</a>. Soon, winter storms will bring wind and snow to much of the country.</p>
<p>Anxious people everywhere worry about the impact these storms might have on their safety, comfort and convenience. Will they disrupt my commute to work? My children’s ride to school? My electricity service? </p>
<p>When it comes to electricity, people turn their attention to the power lines overhead and wonder if their electricity service might be more secure if those lines were buried underground. But <a href="http://warrington.ufl.edu/centers/purc/purcdocs/papers/1007_Kury_Evidence_Driven_Utility.pdf">having studied this question</a> for utilities and regulators, I can say the answer is not that straightforward. Burying power lines, also called undergrounding, is expensive, requires the involvement of many stakeholders and might not solve the problem at all.</p>
<h2>Where should ratepayer money go?</h2>
<p>Electric utilities do not provide service for free, as everyone who opens their utility bill every month can attest. All of the costs of providing service are ultimately paid by the utility’s customers, so it is critical that every dollar spent on that service provides good value for those customers. Utility regulators in every state have the responsibility to ensure that utilities provide safe and reliable service at just and reasonable rates. </p>
<p>But what are customers willing to pay for ensuring reliability and mitigating risk? That’s complicated. Consider consumer choices in automobile insurance. Some consumers choose maximum insurance coverage through a zero deductible. Others blanch at the higher premiums zero deductibles bring and choose a higher deductible at lower premium cost. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185734/original/file-20170912-3743-1fk2xb7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185734/original/file-20170912-3743-1fk2xb7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185734/original/file-20170912-3743-1fk2xb7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185734/original/file-20170912-3743-1fk2xb7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185734/original/file-20170912-3743-1fk2xb7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185734/original/file-20170912-3743-1fk2xb7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185734/original/file-20170912-3743-1fk2xb7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185734/original/file-20170912-3743-1fk2xb7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The damage from Hurricane Irma on the Florida Keys was extensive. Putting power lines underground will make electricity service more resilient to wind damage but also make flooding a bigger concern.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/David Goldman</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To provide insurance for electricity service, regulators and utilities must aggregate the preferences of individual customers into a single standard for the grid. It’s a difficult task that requires a collaborative effort. </p>
<p>The state of Florida’s reaction in the wake of the 2004-2005 hurricane seasons provides a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2011.04.002">model for this type of cooperative effort</a>. Utilities, regulators and government officials meet every year to address the efficacy of Florida’s storm hardening efforts and discuss how these efforts should evolve, including the selective undergrounding of power lines. This collaborative effort has resulted in the refinement of utility “vegetation management practices” – selective pruning of trees and bushes to avoid contact with power lines and transformers – in the state as well as a simulation model to assess the economic costs and benefits of undergrounding power lines.</p>
<p>Nationally, roughly 25 percent of new distribution and transmission lines are built underground, according to a <a href="http://www.eei.org/issuesandpolicy/electricreliability/undergrounding/Documents/UndergroundReport.pdf">2012 industry study</a>. Some European countries, including the Netherlands and Germany, have made <a href="http://www.electrocuted.com/2016/08/25/bury-power-lines-underground-to-prevent-electrocution-deaths/">significant commitments to undergrounding</a>. </p>
<p>Burying power lines costs roughly US$1 million per mile, but the geography or population density of the service area can <a href="http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=7250">halve this cost or triple it</a>. In the wake of a statewide ice storm in December 2002, the North Carolina Utilities Commission and the electric utilities explored the feasibility of burying the state’s distribution lines underground and concluded that the project would take <a href="http://www.ncuc.commerce.state.nc.us/reports/undergroundreport.pdf">25 years to complete and increase electricity rates by 125 percent</a>. The project was never begun, as the price increase was not seen as reasonable for consumers.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185341/original/file-20170909-32271-1gfa25f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185341/original/file-20170909-32271-1gfa25f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185341/original/file-20170909-32271-1gfa25f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185341/original/file-20170909-32271-1gfa25f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185341/original/file-20170909-32271-1gfa25f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185341/original/file-20170909-32271-1gfa25f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185341/original/file-20170909-32271-1gfa25f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185341/original/file-20170909-32271-1gfa25f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Construction at the Moody Air Force base in Georgia to put power lines underground in 2009.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.moody.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/210978/construction-project-transitions-base-power-lines/">U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Schelli Jones</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A <a href="https://oca.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/oca/page_content/attachments/Study%20of%20the%20Feasibility%20&%20Reliability%20of%20Undergrounding%20Electric%20Distribution%20Lines%20in%20DC%20(July%201,%202010)%20-%20ShawConsultantsforPSC.pdf">2010 engineering study</a> for the Public Service Commission on undergrounding a portion of the electricity system in the District of Columbia found that costs increased rapidly as utilities try to underground more of their service territory. The study concluded that a strategic $1.1 billion (in 2006 dollars) investment would improve the reliability for 65 percent of the customers in the utility’s service territory, but an additional $4.7 billion would be required to improve service for the remaining 35 percent of customers in outlying areas. So, over 80 percent of the costs for the project would be required to benefit a little more than one third of the customers. The Mayor’s Power Line Undergrounding Task Force ultimately recommended a <a href="https://oca.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/oca/page_content/attachments/Undergrounding%20-%20Fact%20Sheet%20-REV%20-051513.pdf">$1 billion hardening project</a> that would increase customer bills by 3.23 percent on average after seven years.</p>
<h2>Shifting risk</h2>
<p>In addition to the capital cost, undergrounding may make routine maintenance of the system <a href="http://www.elp.com/articles/powergrid_international/print/volume-18/issue-2/features/underground-vs-overhead-power-line-installation-cost-comparison-.html">more difficult</a>, and thus more expensive, because of reduced accessibility to power lines. This may also make it more difficult to repair the system when outages do occur, prolonging the duration of each outage. Utility regulators and distribution utilities must weigh this cost against the costs of repairing and maintaining the electricity system in its overhead state. </p>
<p>Electricity service is valuable. A 2009 study from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory <a href="https://emp.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/lbnl-2132e.pdf">estimated an economic cost</a> of $10.60 for an eight-hour interruption in electricity service to the average residential customer. For an average small commercial or industrial customer the cost grew to $5,195, and to almost $70,000 for an average medium to large commercial or industrial customer. The economic benefits of storm hardening, therefore, are significant. </p>
<p>Beyond the economic value of undergrounding, one could consider other benefits, such as aesthetic ones, which may be more difficult to quantify. But all costs and benefits must be considered to ensure value for the customer’s investment.</p>
<p>In terms of reliability, it is not correct to say that burying power lines protects them from storm damage. It simply shifts the risk of damage from one type of storm effect to another. </p>
<p>For example, it is true that undergrounding can mitigate damage from wind events such as flying debris, falling trees and limbs, and collected ice and snow. But alternatives, such as proper vegetation management practices, replacing wood poles with steel, concrete or composite ones, or reinforcing utility poles with guy wires, may be nearly as effective in mitigating storm damage and may cost less.</p>
<p>Also, undergrounding power lines may make them more susceptible to damage from corrosive storm surge and flooding from rainfall or melting ice and snow. Areas with greater vulnerability to storm surge and flooding will confront systems that are less reliable (and at greater cost) as a result of undergrounding. </p>
<p>So, the relocation of some power lines underground may provide a cost-effective strategy to mitigate the risk of damage to elements of a utility’s infrastructure. But these cases should be evaluated individually by the local distribution utility and its regulator. Otherwise consumers will end up spending more for their electricity service, and getting less.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83771/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Theodore Kury, Ph. D. is the Director of Energy Studies at the University of Florida’s Public Utility Research Center where he studies the economic impacts of energy policy. The Public Utility Research Center is sponsored in part by the Florida electric utilities and the Florida Public Service Commission, neither of which has editorial control of any of the content produced by the Center.</span></em></p>Would putting power lines underground avoid hurricanes knocking out electricity service for millions of people? The answer is not as straightforward as it seems.Theodore J. Kury, Director of Energy Studies , University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.